[Aeromedical evacuation of critically ill patients in developing countries A retrospective study on 244 patients in Djibouti].

Science.gov (United States)

Bordes, J; Loheas, D; Benois, A

2015-01-01

The pratice of intensive care in Africa is marked by a wide variety of health care delivery. Only a few centers offer specialized intensive care units, as cardiac or neurological units. That may explain the need for aeromedical evacuations for patients whose condition exceeds local capacity. Our objective was to assess whether the proportion of patients admitted to intensive care and evacuated had increased between 1997 and 2013 in a developing country, Djibouti. We examined the activity register of Bouffard Hospital intensive care unit in Djibouti to determine the number and characteristics of patients evacuated by air ambulance during a 16 years period. From January 1997 to December 2013, a total of 244 patients were evacuated. The evacuation rate was 5.74ù of the patients admitted to the entire duration of the study. The rate of patients evacuated was not different between 1997 and 2013 (5,69ù versus 8,33ù respectively, p = 0,269). However, the rate of djiboutian evacuated patients was statistically different between 1997 and 2013 (0,96ù versus 4,46ù, p = 0,02). The main causes were severe trauma injuries, cardiovascular diseases and neurological diseases. The aeromedical evacuation of a critically ill patient in a developing country is a process requiring heavy logistics and depending on the medical skills available in the area, and financial resources that can be implemented for the patient. Our study shows that medical evacuations in favor of Djiboutian patients are marginal but are increasing over the past decade.

Aeromedical Hazard Comparison of FAA Medically Certified Third-Class and Medically Uncertified Pilots.

Science.gov (United States)

Ricaurte, Eduard M; Mills, William D; DeJohn, Charles A; Laverde-Lopez, Maria C; Porras-Sanchez, Daniel F

2016-07-01

Since 2004, in the United States, light sport aircraft (LSA) and some aircraft with standard airworthiness certificates can be operated for recreational purposes with a valid state driver's license rather than a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)-issued aeromedical certificate. There have been recent efforts to allow operation of much larger, heavier, faster, and more complex aircraft without requiring a medical certificate. The primary objective of this research was to compare hazards to flight safety identified in fatally injured pilots required to possess a valid FAA third-class medical certificate to hazards in fatally injured pilots who were not required to possess a valid medical certificate. A search of all fatal U.S. aircraft accidents in the FAA Medical ANalysis and TRAcking (MANTRA) registry between January 1, 2011, and April 30, 2014, identified 1084 individuals. A review of accident pilots' medical, autopsy, and toxicological data was conducted. After applying exclusion criteria, 467 pilots remained, including 403 medically certified and 64 medically uncertified pilots. A significant difference was found in a surrogate measure for risk between medically certified and uncertified pilots (25% vs. 59%). This difference remained significant after adjustment for age. No significant difference was found in the proportions of hazards identified on toxicological review. The results of this study suggest that the risk of an adverse medical event is reduced in pilots required to possess a valid medical certificate. Ricaurte EM, Mills WD, DeJohn CA, Laverde-Lopez MC, Porras-Sanchez DF. Aeromedical hazard comparison of FAA medically certified third-class and medically uncertified pilots. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2016; 87(7):618-621.

Evaluation of Neurophysiologic and Systematic Changes during Aeromedical Evacuation and en Route Care of Combat Casualties in a Swine Polytrauma

Science.gov (United States)

2017-02-01

long range aero-medical evacuation in hypobaric environments on the physiology and organ function of injured warfighters, thus potentially and...currently ongoing. REPORTABLE OUTCOMES: Steve Chun, MD; Ashraful Haque, MD; Brittany Hazzard, BS; Saha Biswajit, MD, Martin Harssema, MD, Charles Auker...Scultetus MD; Ashraful Haque, MD; Brittany Hazzard, BS; Saha Biswajit, MD; Steve Chun, MD; Martin Harssema, MD; Charles Auker, MD, PhD; Debra Malone

[Doctor, may I travel in space? Aeromedical considerations regarding commercial suborbital space flights].

Science.gov (United States)

Haerkens, Marck H T M; Simons, Ries; Kuipers, André

2011-01-01

Within a few years, the first commercial operators will start flying passengers on suborbital flights to the verge of space. Medical data on the effects of space journeys on humans have mainly been provided by professional astronauts. There is very little research into the aeromedical consequences of suborbital flights for the health of untrained passengers. Low air pressure and oxygen tension can be compensated for by pressurising the spacecraft or pressure suit. Rapid changes in gravitational (G-)force pose ultimate challenges to cardiovascular adaptation mechanisms. Zero-gravity and G-force may cause motion sickness. Vibrations and noise during the flight may disturb communication between passengers and crew. In addition, the psychological impact of a suborbital flight should not be underestimated. There are currently no legal requirements available for medical examinations for commercial suborbital flights, but it seems justifiable to establish conditions for potential passengers' states of health.

Joint Use of the MAB-II and MicroCog for Improvements in the Clinical and Neuropsychological Screening and Aeromedical Waiver Process of Rated USAF Pilots

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

medical flight screening and the aeromedical waiver process ( Olea & Ree, 1994; Ree & Carretta, 1996; Ree, Carretta, & Teachout, 1995). Currently, the...Student pilots with high scores on ability tests are more likely to complete training ( Olea & Ree, 1994; Ree & Carretta, 1996; Ree, Carretta, & Teachout...Matrix differential calculus with applications in statistics and econometrics. New York, NY: John Wiley. Olea , M., & Ree, M.J. (1994

Risk assessment future cash flows

OpenAIRE

Chachina H. G.

2012-01-01

This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

Quantitative health impact assessment: current practice and future directions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.L. Veerman (Lennert); J.J.M. Barendregt (Jan); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

2005-01-01

textabstractSTUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess what methods are used in quantitative health impact assessment (HIA), and to identify areas for future research and development. DESIGN: HIA reports were assessed for (1) methods used to quantify effects of policy on determinants of health

Assessing Leadership Potential for the Army's Future Force

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Donahue, Scott

2004-01-01

A transforming Army requires a corresponding transformation in its leader development and assessment methodology to enable the future force in the volatile uncertain complex and ambiguous contemporary...

Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johansson, T B; Nakicenovic, N; Patwardhan, A; Gomez-Echeverri, L [eds.

2012-11-01

The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

Endotracheal tube and laryngeal mask airway cuff volume changes with altitude: a rule of thumb for aeromedical transport.

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Catherine; Parkinson, Neil; Bleetman, Anthony

2007-03-01

Helicopters and light (unpressurised) aircraft are used increasingly for the transport of ventilated patients. Most of these patients are ventilated through endotracheal tubes (ETTs), others through laryngeal mask airways (LMAs). The cuffs of both ETTs and LMAs inflate with increases in altitude as barometric pressure decreases (30 mbar/1000 feet). Tracheal mucosa perfusion becomes compromised at a pressure of approximately 30 cm H2O; critical perfusion pressure is 50 cm H2O. The change in dimensions of the inflated cuffs of a size 8 ETT and a size 5 LMA were measured with digital callipers at 1000 feet intervals in the unpressurised cabin of an Agusta 109 helicopter used by the Warwickshire and Northamptonshire Air Ambulance. A linear expansion in cuff dimensions as a function of altitude increase was identified. For ETTs, a formula for removal of air from the cuff with increasing altitude was calculated and is recommended for use in aeromedical transfers. This is 1/17x1.1 = 0.06 ml/1000 foot ascent/ml initial cuff inflation. The data for LMA cuff expansion failed to show significant correlation with altitude change. Further work is required to determine a similar rule of thumb for LMA cuff deflation.

Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

. USDA Forest Service.

2012-01-01

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

ASSESSMENT OF STUDENTS’ PROFESSIONAL COMPETENCIES – THE FUTURE TEACHERS OF MATHEMATICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariya B. Shashkina

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the investigation is to describe the authors’ approach to the assessment of the professional competence of the future teacher of mathematics.Methods. The methods involve comparative analysis of the Professional Standard of the teacher and the Federal State Educational Standards in teacher education, as well as the method of predictive analysis of modern educational situation.Results. Qualimetric approach to the structuring of the professional competencies of students is described; it allows concretizing the assessment object, to select the criteria and levels of its formedness, to trace the dynamics of development in the medium of profile preparation of a bachelor. The methodology of assessment a professional-profile competence of the future mathematics teachers is proposed; examples of the competence-assessment tools are provided.Scientific novelty. The study gives a detailed analysis of developing the innovative approach to competencies assessment as metasubject learning outcomes.Practical significance. The proposed method of competencies assessment can be used in the mathematical preparation of the future mathematics teacher, and can serve as a basis for monitoring the professional competencies of students.

Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Wikman-Svahn, P.

2013-12-01

How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing

RPA Assessment of Outdoor Recreation: Past, Current, and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

1994-01-01

In this paper, the outdoor recreation sections of the Renewable Resource Planning Act (RPA) Assessments conducted to date are reviewed. Current policy and mangement applications of the outsdoor recreation results published in 1989 Assessment are discussed also. The paper concludes with suggestions for the assemssment of outdoor recreation in future RPA Assessements...

The future of human rights impact assessments of trade agreements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Walker, S.M.

2009-01-01

The Future of Human Rights Impact Assessments of Trade Agreements develops a methodology for human rights impact assessments of trade agreements and considers whether there is any value in using the methodology on a sustained basis to ensure that the human dimensions of international trade are taken

Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yevgeniya Arushanyan

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

Formative Evaluation of the MENTOR 2010 Courseware

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wenzel, Brenda M; Christinaz, Daniel U; Kretschmer, Monika G; Escobar, Susan L; Garcia, Veronica

2002-01-01

.... Training were measured as increases in scores on achievement tests, increases in self-ratings of levels of knowledge and confidence in specific areas of nursing assessment and aeromedical evacuation(AE...

Assessing the future of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moncomble, J.E.

2015-01-01

The World Energy Council has designed 2 tools named Jazz and Symphonie that allow the assessment of the potential impacts of energy choices on the future in terms of climate warming, investments, energy mix,... The Jazz roadmap aims at energy equity which means individual access to energy at a reasonable cost while the Symphonie roadmap focuses on environmental issues through appropriate practice and coordinated international policies. Both tools are integrated it means that they describe a whole world by most of its aspects: population, GDP per capita, number of cars by inhabitant, economic growth... A basic application of both tools shows that in 2050 the nuclear power will have increased (compared to today's level) but the share of nuclear power in the energy mix will have decreased for Jazz and increased for Symphonie. (A.C.)

AL Qaeda, Trends in Terrorism and Future Potentialities: An Assessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hoffman, Bruce

2003-01-01

This paper assesses current trends in terrorism and future potentialities. It examines first the presumed state of al Qaeda today with particular reference to its likely agenda in a post-Iraq war world...

Functional assessment of the cervical spine in F-16 pilots with and without neck pain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Loose, Veerle; van den Oord, Mariek; Burnotte, Frédéric; van Tiggelen, Damien; Stevens, Veerle; Cagnie, Barbara; Danneels, Lieven; Witvrouw, Erik

2009-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Spinal symptoms in fighter pilots are a serious aeromedical problem. The most common neck complaints are muscular pain and strain. The aim of the current study was to determine possible differences in the cervical range of motion (CROM), neck position sense, and neck muscle strength

Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A.

1999-09-01

The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent nor the regulator

Environmental assessment of current and future Swiss electricity supply options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauer, Christian; Heck, Thomas; Hirschberg, Stefan; Dones, Roberto

2008-01-01

Options for near future electricity supply are currently one of the main topics in the Swiss energy policy debate. Contrary to the total energy demand per capita the trend of rising electricity demand per capita is still visible. This paper presents a comparative environmental assessment of a broad portfolio of current and future electricity generation technologies including nuclear, fossil, and renewable power plants with their associated energy chains. The evaluation, based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), is carried out quantifying ten different environmental indicators, grouped in the categories greenhouse gas emissions, consumption of resources, waste, and impact on ecosystems. Hydropower shows minimal environmental impacts for all indicators; for other systems, the picture is diverse. The comparison of non-aggregated indicators allows preliminary conclusions about the environmental performance of the assessed systems. Establishing ranking of technologies calls for aggregating the indicators, which can be done by weighting of the indicators based on individual or stakeholder group preferences, either within a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework or with Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods. Calculating total costs of electricity by adding external costs due to impacts on human health and ecosystems to the electricity production costs poses another option for ranking of technologies. (authors)

The Future of Exposure Assessment: Perspectives from the ...

Science.gov (United States)

The British Occupational Hygiene Society, in collaboration with the Institute of Occupational Medicine, the University of Manchester, the UK Health and Safety Executive, and the University of Aberdeen hosted the 7th International Conference on the Science of Exposure Assessment (X2012) on 2 July–5 July 2012 in Edinburgh, UK. The conference ended with a special session at which invited speakers from government, industry, independent research institutes, and academia were asked to reflect on the conference and discuss what may now constitute the important highlights or drivers of future exposure assessment research. This article summarizes these discussions with respect to current and future technical and methodological developments. For the exposure science community to continue to have an impact in protecting public health, additional efforts need to be made to improve partnerships and cross-disciplinary collaborations, although it is equally important to ensure that the traditional occupational exposure themes are still covered as these issues are becoming increasingly important in the developing world. To facilitate this the ‘X’ conferences should continue to retain a holistic approach to occupational and non-occupational exposures and should actively pursue collaborations with other disciplines and professional organizations to increase the presence of consumer and environmental exposure scientists. The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′

Imagining flood futures: risk assessment and management in practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Lane, Stuart N; Landström, Catharina; Whatmore, Sarah J

2011-05-13

The mantra that policy and management should be 'evidence-based' is well established. Less so are the implications that follow from 'evidence' being predictions of the future (forecasts, scenarios, horizons) even though such futures define the actions taken today to make the future sustainable. Here, we consider the tension between 'evidence', reliable because it is observed, and predictions of the future, unobservable in conventional terms. For flood risk management in England and Wales, we show that futures are actively constituted, and so imagined, through 'suites of practices' entwining policy, management and scientific analysis. Management has to constrain analysis because of the many ways in which flood futures can be constructed, but also because of commitment to an accounting calculus, which requires risk to be expressed in monetary terms. It is grounded in numerical simulation, undertaken by scientific consultants who follow policy/management guidelines that define the futures to be considered. Historical evidence is needed to deal with process and parameter uncertainties and the futures imagined are tied to pasts experienced. Reliance on past events is a challenge for prediction, given changing probability (e.g. climate change) and consequence (e.g. development on floodplains). So, risk management allows some elements of risk analysis to become unstable (notably in relation to climate change) but forces others to remain stable (e.g. invoking regulation to prevent inappropriate floodplain development). We conclude that the assumed separation of risk assessment and management is false because the risk calculation has to be defined by management. Making this process accountable requires openness about the procedures that make flood risk analysis more (or less) reliable to those we entrust to produce and act upon them such that, unlike the 'pseudosciences', they can be put to the test of public interrogation by those who have to live with their consequences

Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

1999-09-01

The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier tounderstand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent

Technical Assessments of Future European Space Transportation Options

OpenAIRE

Sippel, Martin; van Foreest, Arnold; Dutheil, Jean-Philippe; Philip, Peter

2007-01-01

The paper describes some of the most recent activities in Germany in the technical assessment of future European launcher architecture. In focus is a joint effort of DLR-SART with German launcher industry in the definition of a next generation upper-medium class expendable TSTO with an initial operational capability after 2020. Involved companies are EADS astrium and MT Aerospace. This DLR-agency funded study WOTAN investigates fully cryogenic launchers as well as those with a com...

Harmonization of future needs for dermal exposure assessment and modeling : a workshop report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Maidment, S.; Mcclaflin, J.L.; Fehrenbacher, M.C.

2001-01-01

Dermal exposure assessment and modeling is still in early phases of development. This article presents the results of a workshop organized to harmonize the future needs in this field. Methods for dermal exposure assessment either assess the mass of contaminant that is transferred to the skin, or the

Performance assessment for future low-level waste disposal facilities at ORNL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, D.W.; Kocher, D.C.

1989-01-01

This paper discusses the strategy for waste management on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) and the approach to preparing future performance assessments that has evolved from previous performance assessment studies of low-level radioactive waste disposal on the ORR. The strategy for waste management is based on the concept that waste classification should be determined by performance assessment other than the sources of waste. This dose-based strategy for waste classification and management places special importance on the preparation and interpretation of waste disposal performance assessments for selecting appropriate disposal technologies and developing waste acceptance criteria. Additionally, the challenges to be overcome in the preparation of performance assessments are discussed. 7 refs

The effects of napping on night shift performance : final report.

Science.gov (United States)

2000-02-01

This study represents a collaborative effort between the Federal Aviation Administrations Civil Aeromedical Institute and the US Army Aeromedical Research Laboratory to investigate the effects of napping on the midnight shift as a potential counte...

Assessing Future Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Garry D. Peterson

2003-12-01

Full Text Available The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which the projected use of ecological services is substantially different. The work reported in this paper demonstrates how scenarios can be developed for a region and provides a starting point for a participatory discussion of alternative futures for northern Wisconsin. Although the future is unknowable, we hope that the assessment process begun in this paper will help the people of the Northern Highlands Lake District choose the future path of their region.

Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

2007-01-01

Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

The future of FRMAC assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laiche, Thomas P.

2010-01-01

FRMAC was born out of circumstances 25 years ago when 17 federal agencies descended on the states with good intention during the Three-Mile Island nuclear power plant incident. At that time it quickly became evident that a better way was needed to support state and local governments in their time of emergency and recovery process. FRMAC's single voice of Federal support coordinates the multiple agencies that respond to a radiological event. Over the years, FRMAC has exercised, evaluated, and honed its ability to quickly respond to the needs of our communities. As the times have changed, FRMAC has expanded its focus from nuclear power plant incidents, to threats of a terrorist radiological dispersal device (RDD), to the unthinkable - an Improvised nuclear device (IND). And just as having the right tools are part of any trade, FRMAC's tool set has and is evolving to meet contemporary challenges - not just to improve the time it takes to collect data and assess the situation, but to provide a quality and comprehensive product that supports a stressed decision maker, responsible for the protection of the public. Innovations in the movement of data and information have changed our everyday lives. So too, FRMAC is capitalizing on industry innovations to improve the flow of information: from the early predictive models, to streamlining the process of getting data out of the field; to improving the time it takes to get assessed products in to the hands of the decision makers. FRMAC is focusing on the future through the digital age of electronic data processing. Public protective action and dose avoidance is the challenge.

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bisinella, Valentina

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... field. The quantitative modelling implications were tested within real-scale LCA models focusing on the management of residual waste in Denmark. In a wide range of scenarios, this thesis addressed the influence on the LCA model results of realistic technology and waste composition uncertainties, as well...

Evaluation of the Military Functional Assessment Program: Inter rater Reliability of Task Scores

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-19

return-to-duty. Performance on the tasks is rated by a non-commissioned officer (NCO), occupational therapist, physical therapist, and mental health ...and additional ratings are provided on a subset of the tasks by an occupational therapist (OT), physical therapist (PT), and mental health (MH...3National Intrepid Center of Excellence United States Army Aeromedical Research Laboratory Aircrew Health and Performance Division September 2017

Portfolio assessments for future generation investment in newly industrializing countries – A case study of Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2012-01-01

This paper assesses future electricity generation portfolios in Thailand in 2030 given uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, electricity demand, and capital costs. Thailand faces challenges for generation investment given its rapid socio-economic progress and fast growing demand. A novel generation investment and planning decision-support tool which incorporates a Monte Carlo extension to conventional optimal generation mix methods combined with portfolio-based analysis techniques, is used. The tool can formally assess tradeoffs between expected future generation costs, cost uncertainties, and CO 2 emissions for the range of different generation portfolios. Results highlight that different levels of future carbon pricing will have significant impacts on the most appropriate generation portfolios. The impact of carbon pricing, however, is not on the appropriate proportion of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) in the mix but, instead, on the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. Compared with the current proposed 2030 generation mix, it is possible that there are other generation portfolios that offer lower expected costs, cost uncertainty, and CO 2 emissions depending on future carbon pricing. Results suggest that this investment decision-support approach may have value for electric utilities and policy-makers contemplating significant generation investments under high future uncertainty and conflicting policy objectives. -- Highlights: ► Assess Thailand's future generation portfolios in 2030 under uncertainties. ► Future carbon prices have significant impacts on the appropriate generation mixes. ► Carbon pricing affects the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. ► There may be more appropriate alternatives than the proposed 2030 generation mix. ► This decision-support approach has value for utility and policy decision-making.

Health technology assessment: research trends and future priorities in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Camilla Palmhøj; Funch, Tina Maria; Kristensen, Finn Børlum

2011-07-01

To provide an overview of health services research related to health technology assessment (HTA) and to identify research priorities from a European perspective. Several methods were used: systematic review of articles indexed with the MeSH term 'technology assessment' in PubMed from February 1999-2009; online survey among experts; and conference workshop discussions. Research activity in HTA varies considerably across Europe. The research was categorised into six areas: (1) the breadth of analysis in HTA (such as economic, organizational and social aspects); (2) HTA products developed to meet the needs of policy-makers (such as horizon scanning, mini-HTA, and core HTA); (3) handling life-cycle perspectives in relation to technologies; (4) topics that challenge existing methods and for which HTA should be developed to address the themes more comprehensively (such as public health interventions and organizational interventions); (5) development of HTA capacity and programmes; and (6) links between policy and HTA. An online survey showed that the three areas that were given priority were the relationship between HTA and policy-making (71%), the impact of HTA (62%) and incorporating patient aspects in HTA (50%). Policy-makers highlighted HTA and innovation processes as their main research priority (42%). Areas that the systematic review identified as future priorities include issues within the six existing research areas such as disinvestment, developing evidence for new technologies, assessing the wider effects of technology use, and determining how HTA affects decision-making. In addition, relative effectiveness and individualized treatments are areas of growing interest. The research priorities identified are important for obtaining high quality and cost-effective health care in Europe. Managing the introduction, use and phasing out of technologies challenges health services throughout Europe, and these processes need to be improved to successfully manage future

Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

2010-01-01

Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moren, Lena

2006-10-01

This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis

Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moren, Lena

2006-10-15

This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis.

Assessment of present and future large-scale semiconductor detector systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spieler, H.G.; Haller, E.E.

1984-11-01

The performance of large-scale semiconductor detector systems is assessed with respect to their theoretical potential and to the practical limitations imposed by processing techniques, readout electronics and radiation damage. In addition to devices which detect reaction products directly, the analysis includes photodetectors for scintillator arrays. Beyond present technology we also examine currently evolving structures and techniques which show potential for producing practical devices in the foreseeable future

Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2016-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

2014-01-01

The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

Beyond speculative robot ethics: A vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Plas, A.P. van der; Smits, M.; Wehrmann, C.

2010-01-01

In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to

Back to the Future: Personality and Assessment and Personality Development

OpenAIRE

Roberts, Brent W.

2009-01-01

In this essay I consider the future of personality development in light of the past effects of Personality and Assessment on the field of personality in general and personality development in particular. The essay is organized around 1) the effect of Mischel's book on the foundational theories informing personality development; 2) definitions of personality traits; 3) an alternative model of personality traits, described as the sociogenomic model of personality traits, that can bridge the div...

Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

2015-01-01

The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding and includ......The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding...

Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-12-01

This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2010-12-15

This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

THE ASSESSMENT OF CYBERBULLYING: THE PRESENT SITUATION AND FUTURE CHALLENGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beatriz Lucas-Molina

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a significant increase in the interest of the educational and scientific community on cyberbullying, a new form of peer abuse and intimidation. Despite the widespread proliferation of studies and assessment tools on the phenomenon, there are still major conceptual and methodological gaps. This paper offers a comprehensive and updated review of the results of research on the definition of the construct, its prevalence and its impact on the people involved. Finally, it focuses specifically on the assessment of the construct and provides a brief review of the general and psychometric characteristics of the instruments used in some of the most relevant national and international studies conducted on the subject. This work places special emphasis on the present and future challenges and concludes with a number of general recommendations intended to guide the correct selection and/or construction of assessment instruments in this field of study.

Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-07-01

This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

Future Directions in Assessment: Influences of Standards and Implications for Language Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Troy L.; Malone, Margaret E.; Winke, Paula

2018-01-01

As "Foreign Language Annals" concludes its 50th anniversary, it is fitting to review the past and peer into the future of standards-based education and assessment. Standards are a common yardstick used by educators and researchers as a powerful framework for conceptualizing teaching and measuring learner success. The impact of standards…

ASSESSMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: PRESENT AND FUTURE METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabel Benítez

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The growing importance of quality of life in diverse domains, such as health, school performance and social participation, has led to the development of new conceptualisations and assessments of the construct. This diversity of perspectives brings about many benefits, but it also creates an obstacle for the formulation of a single unifying definition of the construct and, therefore, an agreed instrument or assessment framework. The aim of this study is to discuss the current methodological challenges in the measurement of quality of life. Firstly, we provide a brief description of the construct as defined in various areas, then we examine the new methodological developments and different applications. We also present an overview of the different possibilities for future developments in defining and measuring quality of life in national and international studies.

US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

2011-10-01

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

ASSESSMENT OF ALLERGENIC POTENTIAL OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS: AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

Science.gov (United States)

AbstractSpeakers and participants in the Workshop Assessment of the Allergenic Potential of Genetically Modified Foods met in breakout groups to discuss a number of issues including needs for future research. There was agreement that research should move forward quickly in t...

Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Japan: Past, Present, and Future

Science.gov (United States)

Ishikuma, Toshinori; Matsuda, Osamu; Fujita, Kazuhiro; Ueno, Kazuhiko

2016-01-01

This article briefly reviews the history of intellectual assessment with children and youth in Japan, as well as current practices and future directions. The history of intelligence test use in Japan began in the early 20th century. Since the 21st century, three major intelligence tests, namely, the Wechsler Intelligence Scales, the Kaufman…

The future of anticoagulation management in atrial fibrillation in Europe: An assessment of today's challenges with recommendations for the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Lichten, Catherine A; Castle-Clarke, Sophie; Manville, Catriona; Horvath, Veronika; Robin, Enora; Krapels, Joachim; Parks, Sarah; Sim, Megan; van Zijverden, Olga; Chataway, Joanna

2015-11-30

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of cardiac arrhythmia, affecting approximately 1-2 per cent of the population worldwide. Those who suffer from AF have a five times higher risk of stroke. AF prevalence increases with age and it affects roughly 18 per cent of the population over 85. Consequently, as populations age, AF is becoming an increasingly significant public health issue. Over recent years there have been developments in treatment and management options, both for treating the arrhythmia directly, and assessing and reducing the risk of AF-related stroke, but there is a need to ensure that available knowledge is applied optimally to benefit patients so that opportunities to prevent AF-related stroke are not missed. The aims of this project were to assess the current landscape and explore the direction of future developments in AF management in Europe, with a focus on the use of anticoagulants in the prevention of AF-related stroke. Through rapid evidence assessment, key informant interviews, PESTLE analysis and the development and exploration of future scenarios, we have developed sets of shorter- and longer-term recommendations for improving AF-related patient outcomes. The short-term recommendations are: i) improve AF awareness among the public and policymakers; ii) support education about AF management for healthcare professionals and patients; and iii) maintain engagement in AF-related research across the health services.

Contents of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in the safety evaluation of a repository for spent fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A.

2001-08-01

The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent nor the regulator

Assessment approaches in massive open online courses: Possibilities, challenges and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, Yao; Suen, Hoi K.

2018-03-01

The development of massive open online courses (MOOCs) has launched an era of large-scale interactive participation in education. While massive open enrolment and the advances of learning technology are creating exciting potentials for lifelong learning in formal and informal ways, the implementation of efficient and effective assessment is still problematic. To ensure that genuine learning occurs, both assessments for learning (formative assessments), which evaluate students' current progress, and assessments of learning (summative assessments), which record students' cumulative progress, are needed. Providers' more recent shift towards the granting of certificates and digital badges for course accomplishments also indicates the need for proper, secure and accurate assessment results to ensure accountability. This article examines possible assessment approaches that fit open online education from formative and summative assessment perspectives. The authors discuss the importance of, and challenges to, implementing assessments of MOOC learners' progress for both purposes. Various formative and summative assessment approaches are then identified. The authors examine and analyse their respective advantages and disadvantages. They conclude that peer assessment is quite possibly the only universally applicable approach in massive open online education. They discuss the promises, practical and technical challenges, current developments in and recommendations for implementing peer assessment. They also suggest some possible future research directions.

Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

2015-01-01

The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

Sociological assessment of professional self-determination of future doctors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaidarov G.M.

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The lack of a formed professional self-determination among high school students leads to the fact that in the process of medical education and the first years of professional activity, a significant number of students and young specialists leave medicine. Purpose of the study: sociological assessment of professional self-determination of schoolchildren of the upper grades, including those who choose the profession of a doctor, as well as the factors that determine it. Methods. The study was conducted using a sociological survey using a specially developed questionnaire. Results. The level of professional self-determination of schoolchildren of the upper grades is low, one out of every three schoolchildren surveyed has not yet decided on the choice of the future profession, about 8 % of the students have not even chosen an approximate direction of future professional activity. Schoolchildren who have chosen the profession of a doctor, the main motivation is an adherence and a life situation, while prestige and the level of wages are not decisive. As the main base of forming professional self-determination two out of three respondents named the school, meaning the speech made for them by doctors and medical students. For those schoolchildren who have chosen the profession of a doctor on their own, the main motivation factor usually is the visit to the medical university during Doors Open Days. Conclusion. The most important role in the formation of professional self-determination of future doctors belongs to the development and implementation of vocational guidance activities carried out by the forces of the school and medical university.

The current CEA/DRN safety approach for the design and the assessment of future nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiorini, G.L.; Pinto, P.L.; Costa, M.

1999-01-01

The purpose of the document is to present the basis of the safety approach currently implemented by the CEA/DRN, both for the design and the assessment of innovative systems and future nuclear installations. This approach is the result of the experience maturated, within the context of the CEA/DRN Innovative Programme through practical applications over several future concepts, both for fission and fusion reactors, as well as for waste disposal. The background of this experience is structured coherently with the European Safety Authorities recommendations and the European Utilities Requirements (EUR). The Defence In Depth principle and its application, by means, among others, of the barrier concept, remains the basis of the safety design process of future nuclear installations. Its adequacy is checked through the safety assessment. The methodology for Lines Of Defence (LOD) implementation as well as the one for the LOD architecture assessment is shown and motivated. The document shows that the clear and unambiguous definition of the safety approach provides an essential base for the organisation of the design tasks, being sure that the safety aspects are correctly taken into account and implemented, and for an adequate safety assessment of the final design, both from qualitative point of view as well as for the quantitative safety analysis. (author)

Am I getting an accurate picture: a tool to assess clinical handover in remote settings?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malcolm Moore

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Good clinical handover is critical to safe medical care. Little research has investigated handover in rural settings. In a remote setting where nurses and medical students give telephone handover to an aeromedical retrieval service, we developed a tool by which the receiving clinician might assess the handover; and investigated factors impacting on the reliability and validity of that assessment. Methods Researchers consulted with clinicians to develop an assessment tool, based on the ISBAR handover framework, combining validity evidence and the existing literature. The tool was applied ‘live’ by receiving clinicians and from recorded handovers by academic assessors. The tool’s performance was analysed using generalisability theory. Receiving clinicians and assessors provided feedback. Results Reliability for assessing a call was good (G = 0.73 with 4 assessments. The scale had a single factor structure with good internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.8. The group mean for the global score for nurses and students was 2.30 (SD 0.85 out of a maximum 3.0, with no difference between these sub-groups. Conclusions We have developed and evaluated a tool to assess high-stakes handover in a remote setting. It showed good reliability and was easy for working clinicians to use. Further investigation and use is warranted beyond this setting.

Visions about Future: A New Scale Assessing Optimism, Pessimism, and Hope in Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Sgaramella, Teresa Maria; Ferrari, Lea; Nota, Laura; Santilli, Sara; Soresi, Salvatore

2017-01-01

This article reports the development and psychometric properties of visions about future (VAF), an instrument assessing hope, optimism, and pessimism. Three different studies involving Italian adolescents were conducted. With the first study 22 items were developed and the factor structure was verified. The second study, involving a second sample…

Beyond speculative robot ethics: a vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Plas, Arjanna; Smits, Martijntje; Wehrmann, Caroline

2010-11-01

In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to some promising co-designed robot concepts in which jointly articulated moral guidelines are embedded. With our model, we think to have designed an interesting response on a recent call for a less speculative ethics of technology by encouraging discussions about the quality of positive and negative visions on the future of robotics.

Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

Looking Ahead: The Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munn, R.E.

1994-01-01

Proceeding of a workshop on the Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments (CEA's) were presented.. Also included were three working group reports and papers presented at the conference. The issue of the concept of Cumulative Environmental Assessments was summarized, along with the current transformation to a more global outlook. The concepts and methodological questions associated with ecology and economics were tackled. CEA methods were discussed and a contrast was made with land-use planning. The importance of long-term monitoring programs was introduced and examples of early warning systems were given. Social science issues behind CEAs were also discussed. Recommendation e for preparing CEA's, the design of early warning monitoring systems, and public involvement, were made.. Contributed papers covered topics related to environmental assessment, pollution, and climate change

The Future of Small Navy Ship Sickbays and Army Aeromedical Evacuation Aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

saliva testing abilities for pregnancy and identification of health problems (Healy, 2014). The potential capability of this device in the small ship...ir1 n:’uT’(Iw JDfld FM ran:ge:i I 36 - ~ 74 ). Uti , 4SO - s::w M 11:.-:, 7().1 - 869 M l lz. ttOOI 806 tQ 960 MH.z band 97 MCCS-fE ’.1

Securing the future in the anthropocene: A critical analysis of the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert P. Marzec

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This commentary analyzes the ontological character of the United Nations’ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005 and its attempt to imagine business-as-usual and transformative human-environmental futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA constitutes the first and most significant attempt by an international political body to incorporate environmental concerns into the field of imaginative scenario building. In addition to its lengthy report on the threatened status of planetary ecosystems, the MA contains extensive “future scenarios” that imagine how human-environmental relations might unfold over the course of the twenty-first century. These scenarios arise out of the lineage of military scenarios generated during the Cold War, and continue to inform UN assessments in the present. This commentary explores how a politico-military concern for security informs the framework of the scenarios, and limits how the MA characterizes the fundamental human act of narration. In the process, the commentary explores alternative ontologies of narration and how these may lead to more transformative narratological interventions.

Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

2016-12-01

One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

The Subjective Health Horizon Questionnaire (SHH-Q): Assessing Future Time Perspectives for Facets of an Active Lifestyle.

Science.gov (United States)

Düzel, Sandra; Voelkle, Manuel C; Düzel, Emrah; Gerstorf, Denis; Drewelies, Johanna; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Demuth, Ilja; Lindenberger, Ulman

2016-01-01

A wider subjective time horizon is assumed to be positively associated with longevity and vitality. In particular, a lifestyle with exposure to novel and varied information is considered beneficial for healthy cognitive aging. At present, measures that specifically assess individuals' perceived temporal extension to engage in active lifestyles in the future are not available. We introduce and validate a new self-report measure, the Subjective Health Horizon Questionnaire (SHH-Q). The SHH-Q assesses individuals' future time perspectives in relation to four interrelated but distinct lifestyle dimensions: (1) novelty-oriented exploration (Novelty), (2) bodily fitness (Body), (3) work goals (Work), and (4) goals in life (Life Goals). The present study aims at: (a) validating the hypothesized factor structure of the SHH-Q, according to which the SHH-Q consists of four interrelated but distinct subscales, and (b) testing the hypothesis that the Novelty and Body subscales of the SHH-Q show positive and selective associations with markers of cognition and somatic health, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we analyzed data from 1,371 healthy individuals (51% women) with a mean age of 70.1 years (SD = 3.6) who participated in the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II) and completed the SHH-Q. As predicted, the SHH-Q formed four correlated but distinct subscales: (1) Novelty, (2) Body, (3) Work, and (4) Life Goals. Greater self-reported future novelty orientation was associated with higher current memory performance, and greater future expectations regarding bodily fitness with better current metabolic status. The SHH-Q reliably assesses individual differences in four distinct dimensions of future time perspective. Two of these dimensions, Novelty and Body, show differential associations with cognitive status and somatic health. The SHH-Q may serve as a tool to assess how different facets of future time perspective relate to somatic health, cognition, motivation, and

Integrated impact assessment in the UK--use, efficacy and future development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milner, Susan J.; Bailey, Cathy; Deans, Julia; Pettigrew, Dulcie

2005-01-01

This paper reports on the findings of an English Department of Health funded study that mapped out examples of integrated impact assessment (IIA) activity, mainly in the UK. Approximately 350 regional and local organisations that have policy and policy implementation roles were contacted via e-mail and from these, 77 telephone interviews were carried out. The interviews revealed 21 examples of IIA being used or developed within the UK. The 77 interviews also generated a rich discussion about the use, efficacy and future development of IIA. Although the findings indicate little IIA activity in the UK, discussions with interviewees suggest that there is growing receptiveness to integrating different forms of assessment into a single assessment process. In part this appears to be driven by sustainable development objectives, both at a strategic and at a local level. In part receptivity to IIA may also be driven by a growing interest in health impact assessment (HIA). There are advocates of the need to integrate health criteria more fully into other forms of impact assessment. The study also highlights the challenges involved in trying to develop IIA methods that are adaptable, flexible and tailored to the different needs of policy-makers and planners

Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorne, J.L.C.M.; Fink-Gremmels, J.

2013-01-01

Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment

Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu [Emerging Risk Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma (Italy); Fink-Gremmels, J. [Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Yalelaan 104, 3584 CM Utrecht (Netherlands)

2013-08-01

Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

The utility of the historical record in assessing future carbon budgets

Science.gov (United States)

Millar, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Allen, M. R.

2017-12-01

It has long been known that the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most physically relevant determiner of long-lived anthropogenic climate change, with an approximately linear relationship between CO2-induced global mean surface warming and cumulative emissions. The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emission and global mean warming using observations to date. Here we show that simple regression analysis indicates that the 1.5°C carbon budget would be exhausted after nearly three decades of current emissions, substantially in excess of many estimates from Earth System Models. However, there are many reasons to be cautious about carbon budget assessments from the historical record alone. Accounting for the uncertainty in non-CO2 radiative forcing using a simple climate model and a standard optimal fingerprinting detection attribution technique gives substantial uncertainty in the contribution of CO2 warming to date, and hence the transient climate response to cumulative emissions. Additionally, the existing balance between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing may change in the future under ambitious mitigation scenarios as non-CO2 emissions become more (or less) important to global mean temperature changes. Natural unforced variability can also have a substantial impact on estimates of remaining carbon budgets. By examining all warmings of a given magnitude in both the historical record and past and future ESM simulations we quantify the impact unforced climate variability may have on estimates of remaining carbon budgets, derived as a function of estimated non-CO2 warming and future emission scenario. In summary, whilst the historical record can act as a useful test of climate models, uncertainties in the response to future cumulative emissions remain large and extrapolations of future carbon budgets from the historical record alone should be treated with caution.

USGCRP's Sustained Assessment Process: Progress to date and future plans

Science.gov (United States)

DeAngelo, B. J.; Reidmiller, D.; Lipschultz, F.; Cloyd, E. T.

2016-12-01

One of the four main objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) Strategic Plan is to "Conduct Sustained Assessments", which seeks to build a process that synthesizes and advances the state of scientific knowledge on global change, develops future scenarios and potential impacts, and evaluates how effectively science is being and can be used to inform and support the Nation's response to climate change. To do so, USGCRP strives to establish a standing capacity to conduct national climate assessments with sectoral and regional information to evaluate climate risks and opportunities, and to inform decision-making, especially with regard to resiliency planning and adaptation measures. Building on the success of the 3rd National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2014), we discuss the range of USGCRP activities that embody the sustained assessment concept. Special reports, such as the recent Climate and Human Health Assessment and upcoming Climate Science Special Report, fill gaps in our understanding and provide crucial building blocks for next NCA report (NCA4). To facilitate the use of consistent assumptions across NCA4, new scenario products for climate, population, and land use will be made available through initiatives such as NOAA's Climate Resilience Toolkit. NCA4 will be informed by user engagement to advance the customization of knowledge. The report will strive to advance our ability to quantify various risks, monetize certain impacts, and communicate the benefits (i.e., avoided impacts) of various mitigation pathways. NCAnet (a national network of climate-interested stakeholders) continues to grow and foster collaborations across levels of governance and within civil society. Finally, USGCRP continues to actively engage with other assessment processes, at international, state, city, and tribal levels, to exchange ideas and to facilitate the potential for "linked" assessments across spatial scales.

How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Maguire, Kaitlin C; Lorenz, David J

2018-03-23

Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Cost development of future technologies for power generation-A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neij, Lena

2008-01-01

Technology foresight studies have become an important tool in identifying realistic ways of reducing the impact of modern energy systems on the climate and the environment. Studies on the future cost development of advanced energy technologies are of special interest. One approach widely adopted for the analysis of future cost is the experience curve approach. The question is, however, how robust this approach is, and which experience curves should be used in energy foresight analysis. This paper presents an analytical framework for the analysis of future cost development of new energy technologies for electricity generation; the analytical framework is based on an assessment of available experience curves, complemented with bottom-up analysis of sources of cost reductions and, for some technologies, judgmental expert assessments of long-term development paths. The results of these three methods agree in most cases, i.e. the cost (price) reductions described by the experience curves match the incremental cost reduction described in the bottom-up analysis and the judgmental expert assessments. For some technologies, the bottom-up analysis confirms large uncertainties in future cost development not captured by the experience curves. Experience curves with a learning rate ranging from 0% to 20% are suggested for the analysis of future cost development

Future-Oriented LCA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Stig Irving; Borup, Mads; Andersen, Per Dannemand

2018-01-01

LCA is often applied for decision-making that concerns actions reaching near or far into the future. However, traditional life cycle assessment methodology must be adjusted for the prospective and change-oriented purposes, but no standardised way of doing this has emerged yet. In this chapter some...... challenges are described and some learnings are derived. Many of the future-oriented LCAs published so far perform relatively short-term prediction of simple comparisons. But for more long-term time horizons foresight methods can be of help. Scenarios established by qualified experts about future...... technological and economic developments are indispensable in future technology assessments. The uncertainties in future-oriented LCAs are to a large extent qualitative and it is important to emphasise that LCA of future technologies will provide a set of answers and not ‘the’ answer....

Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nobuhito Mori

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Tropical cyclones generate severe hazards in the middle latitudes. A brief review and applications of dynamical and statistical downscaling of tropical cyclone (TC are described targeting extreme storm surge and storm wave hazard assessment. First, a review of the current understanding of the changes in the characteristics of TCs in the past and in the future is shown. Then, a review and ongoing research about impact assessment of tropical cyclones both dynamical downscaling and statistical model are described for Typhoon Vera in 1959 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Finally, several examples of impact assessment of storm surge and extreme wave changes are presented. Changes in both TC intensity and track are linked to future changes in extreme storm surge and wave climate in middle latitude.

Beyond integrated safeguards: Performance-based assessments for future nuclear controls

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong Sylvester, Kory W.

2001-01-01

Full text: In the future, if the nuclear nonproliferation and arms control agendas are to advance, they will likely become increasingly seen as parallel undertakings with the objective of comprehensive cradle-to-grave controls over nuclear materials and possibly even warheads removed from defense programs along with materials in civilian use. This 'back to the future' prospect was envisioned in the Acheson-Lillienthal Report and the Baruch Plan, and more modestly in the Atoms-for-Peace Proposal. Unlike the grand plans of the early nuclear years, today's and tomorrow's undertakings will more likely consist of a series of incremental steps with the goal of expanding nuclear controls. These steps will be undertaken at a time of fundamental change in the IAEA safeguards system, and they will be influenced by those changes in profound ways. This prospective influence needs to be taken into account as the IAEA develops and implements integrated safeguards, including its efforts to establish new safeguards criteria, undertake technological and administrative improvements in safeguards, implement credible capabilities for the detection of undeclared nuclear facilities and activities and, perhaps, provide for a more intensive involvement in applying safeguards in new roles such as the verification of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. Performance-based criteria offer one promising way to address the effectiveness of integrated safeguards and to provide a common means of assessing the other key areas of a comprehensive approach to nuclear controls as these develop independently and to the extent that they are coordinated in the future. (author)

Impact assessment of the carbon reduction strategy for transport, low carbon transport : a greener future

Science.gov (United States)

2009-07-01

This is an impact assessment for the Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport (DfT, 2009), Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future, which is part of the UK Governments wider UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (DECC, 2009), Britains path to ta...

A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

2015-04-01

We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

In September 2013, EPA announced the availability of the final report, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments...

A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a novel decision-support tool for assessing future generation portfolios in an increasingly uncertain electricity industry. The tool combines optimal generation mix concepts with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis techniques to determine expected overall industry costs, associated cost uncertainty, and expected CO 2 emissions for different generation portfolio mixes. The tool can incorporate complex and correlated probability distributions for estimated future fossil-fuel costs, carbon prices, plant investment costs, and demand, including price elasticity impacts. The intent of this tool is to facilitate risk-weighted generation investment and associated policy decision-making given uncertainties facing the electricity industry. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with coal, CCGT, and OCGT facing future uncertainties. Results highlight some significant generation investment challenges, including the impacts of uncertain and correlated carbon and fossil-fuel prices, the role of future demand changes in response to electricity prices, and the impact of construction cost uncertainties on capital intensive generation. The tool can incorporate virtually any type of input probability distribution, and support sophisticated risk assessments of different portfolios, including downside economic risks. It can also assess portfolios against multi-criterion objectives such as greenhouse emissions as well as overall industry costs. - Highlights: ► Present a decision support tool to assist generation investment and policy making under uncertainty. ► Generation portfolios are assessed based on their expected costs, risks, and CO 2 emissions. ► There is tradeoff among expected cost, risks, and CO 2 emissions of generation portfolios. ► Investment challenges include economic impact of uncertainties and the effect of price elasticity. ► CO 2 emissions reduction depends on the mix of

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

Safe Ride Standards for Casualty Evacuation Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (Normes de transport sans danger pour l’evacuation des blesses par vehicules aeriens sans pilote)

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-01

September 2008. 11.2 CLINICAL AND OPERATIONAL DOCUMENTS Aerospace Medical Association Air Transport Committee, “Medical Guidelines for Airline ...RTO-MP-HFM-157////MP-HFM-157-19.doc. Turner, S., Ruth, M.J. and Bruce, D.L., “In Flight Catering : Feeding Critical Care Patients During Aeromedical...feet. 8 Turner, S., Ruth, M.J. and Bruce, D.L. “In flight catering : Feeding critical care patients during aeromedical evacuation”. 9 Renz, E.M

Impact of a Cross-Institutional Assessment Designed to Shape Future IT Professionals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grace Tan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available IT graduates need a suite of technical competencies and soft skills married with an understanding of the social and business contexts of the systems that they build. To instill in students an awareness of current IT industry practice coupled with the broader impact of their discipline in society, academics from Victoria University and Federation University initiated an across-institutional collaboration. The initiative resulted in a common formative assessment task undertaken by teams of students enrolled in each institution’s professional development units. An initial survey of students was undertaken prior to the assessment task. The survey queried students’ perceptions of a broad range of professional attitudes and skill sets needed by IT professionals when compared to non-skilled workers. Upon the completion of the assessment task, students were surveyed again as to their perceptions of the importance of personal skills, technical competencies, professional and team working skills, workplace knowledge, and cultural awareness for their future professional lives. Comparisons of both surveys’ results revealed that the cohort had a greater appreciation of technical abilities and team-working skills post the assessment task.

Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

Science.gov (United States)

Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

2017-04-01

The Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) is a wine region, in the northern Portugal, recognized for the Porto wine, which is responsible for more than 60% of the total value of national wine exportations. Since the viticulture is highly dependent on weather/climate patterns, the global warming is expected to affect the areas suitable to the growth of a certain variety of grape, its production and quality. This highlights the need of regional studies that assess the future climate changes effects in the vineyard, which might allow an early adjustment. We explore future climate change in the DDR region using a high-resolution regional climate model for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Two future periods have been simulated using the emission scenario RCP8.5 - for the mid- (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100) - and compared to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCP8.5 is a "baseline" scenario without any climate mitigation and corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to other scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our regional WRF implementation uses three online-nested domains with increasing resolution at a downscaling ratio of three. The coarser domain of 81-km resolution covers part of the North Atlantic Ocean and most of the Europe. The innermost 9-km horizontal resolution domain includes the Iberian Peninsula, a portion of Northern Africa and the adjacent part of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our study uses this 9-km resolution domain and focuses on a confined area, which comprises the DDR. Such dynamical downscaling approach gives an advantage to assess climate effects on the DDR region, where the high horizontal resolution allows including effects of the oceanic coastline, local riverbeds and complex topography. The climatology of the DDR region determines the more suitable wine variety

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retèl Valesca P

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 7: Study recommendations

Science.gov (United States)

1976-01-01

Research and analysis tasks to alleviate negative impacts, to augment positive impacts, or to better understand the impacts produced by the potential introduction of the alternate transportation technologies are identified. The project team's recommendations on research and analysis efforts which have resulted from the technology assessment are provided. Many of the recommendations apply to the future supply of intercity passenger transportation services, categorized by mode. Other recommendations pertain to broad issues in intercity transportation--e.g., finance, regulation, traveler values--that will affect all modes.

Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

2012-12-01

An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

Traumatic brain injury: future assessment tools and treatment prospects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven R Flanagan

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Steven R Flanagan1, Joshua B Cantor2, Teresa A Ashman21New York University School of Medicine, The Rusk Institute of Rehabilitation, New York, NY, USA; 2Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USAAbstract: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is widespread and leads to death and disability in millions of individuals around the world each year. Overall incidence and prevalence of TBI are likely to increase in absolute terms in the future. Tackling the problem of treating TBI successfully will require improvements in the understanding of normal cerebral anatomy, physiology, and function throughout the lifespan, as well as the pathological and recuperative responses that result from trauma. New treatment approaches and combinations will need to be targeted to the heterogeneous needs of TBI populations. This article explores and evaluates the research evidence in areas that will likely lead to a reduction in TBI-related morbidity and improved outcomes. These include emerging assessment instruments and techniques in areas of structural/chemical and functional neuroimaging and neuropsychology, advances in the realms of cell-based therapies and genetics, promising cognitive rehabilitation techniques including cognitive remediation and the use of electronic technologies including assistive devices and virtual reality, and the emerging field of complementary and alternative medicine.Keywords: traumatic brain injury, assessments, treatments

Towards the next generation of climate change assessment: learning from past experiences to inform a sustainable future

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, K. J.; Field, C. B.

2017-12-01

Over decades, assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and many others has bolstered understanding of the climate problem: unequivocal warming, pervasive impacts, and serious risks from continued high emissions of heat-trapping gases. Societies are increasingly responding with early actions to decarbonize energy systems and prepare for impacts. This emerging era of climate solutions creates a need for new approaches to assessment that emphasize learning from ongoing real-world experiences and that help close the gap between aspirations and the pace of progress. Against this backdrop, the presentation will take stock of recent advances and challenges in assessment, especially drawing from analysis of climate change assessment. Four assessment priorities will be considered: (1) integrating diverse evidence including quantitative and qualitative results, (2) applying rigorous expert judgment in evaluating knowledge and uncertainties, (3) exploring widely ranging futures and their connections to ongoing choices and actions, and (4) incorporating interactions among experts and decision-makers in assessment processes. Across these assessment priorities, the presentation will critique both opportunities and pitfalls, outlining possibilities for future experimentation, innovation, and learning. It will evaluate, in particular, lessons from risk-based approaches; strategies for transparently acknowledging persistent uncertainties and contested priorities; ways to minimize biases and foster creativity in expert judgments; scenario-based assessment of surprises, deep uncertainties, and decision-making implications; and opportunities for broadening the conception of expertise and engaging different decision-makers and stakeholders. Overall, these approaches can advance assessment products and processes as a basis for sustained dialogue supporting decision-making.

How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

2015-01-01

When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered. In this......When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered....... In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts...... climate, soil, water loss and production parameters. Secondly, the handling of these factors in the inventory modeling is discussed and finally implemented in the case study. Our approach follows a 3-step procedure consisting of: (1) definition of a baseline scenario at the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI...

Proceedings of the Military Operational Medicine Research Program Return to Duty (RTD) Toolkit Expert Panel Workshop, 16-17 February 2017

Science.gov (United States)

2017-07-10

Laboratory 2Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education United States Army Aeromedical Research Laboratory Aircrew Health and Performance Division...excluded from the RTD Toolkit Manual, 2) to identify any additional tasks and clinical assessments for inclusion in the RTD Toolkit Manual, and 3) to agree...for Science and Education through an interagency agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel

Obstetrician-assessed maternal health at pregnancy predicts offspring future health.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Debbie A Lawlor

2007-08-01

Full Text Available We aimed to examine the association between obstetrician assessment of maternal physical health at the time of pregnancy and offspring cardiovascular disease risk.We examined this association in a birth cohort of 11,106 individuals, with 245,000 person years of follow-up. We were concerned that any associations might be explained by residual confounding, particularly by family socioeconomic position. In order to explore this we used multivariable regression models in which we adjusted for a range of indicators of socioeconomic position and we explored the specificity of the association. Specificity of association was explored by examining associations with other health related outcomes. Maternal physical health was associated with cardiovascular disease: adjusted (socioeconomic position, complications of pregnancy, birthweight and childhood growth at mean age 5 hazard ratio comparing those described as having poor or very poor health at the time of pregnancy to those with good or very good health was 1.55 (95%CI: 1.05, 2.28 for coronary heart disease, 1.91 (95%CI: 0.99, 3.67 for stroke and 1.57 (95%CI: 1.13, 2.18 for either coronary heart disease or stroke. However, this association was not specific. There were strong associations for other outcomes that are known to be related to socioeconomic position (3.61 (95%CI: 1.04, 12.55 for lung cancer and 1.28 (95%CI:1.03, 1.58 for unintentional injury, but not for breast cancer (1.10 (95%CI:0.48, 2.53.These findings demonstrate that a simple assessment of physical health (based on the appearance of eyes, skin, hair and teeth of mothers at the time of pregnancy is a strong indicator of the future health risk of their offspring for common conditions that are associated with poor socioeconomic position and unhealthy behaviours. They do not support a specific biological link between maternal health across her life course and future risk of cardiovascular disease in her offspring.

Development and validation of an instrument to assess future orientation and resilience in adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Maggio, Ilaria; Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore

2016-08-01

The study is aimed at providing the development and initial validation of the Design My Future (DMF), which may be administered in career counseling and research activities to assess adolescents' future orientation and resilience. Two studies with two independent samples of Italian adolescents were conducted to examine psychometric requisites of DMF. Specifically, in the first study, after developing items and examined the content validity, the factorial structure, reliability and discriminant validity of the DMF were tested. In the second study, the measurement invariance across gender, conducing a sequence of nested CFA models, was evaluated. Results showed good psychometric support for the instrument with Italian adolescents. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

Science.gov (United States)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations

Modelling cereal crops to assess future climate risk for family food self-sufficiency in southern Mali

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Traore, Bouba; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Wijk, van Mark T.; Corbeels, Marc; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E.

2017-01-01

Future climate change will have far reaching consequences for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, the majority of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Here we assessed the farm-level impact of climate change on family food self-sufficiency and evaluated potential adaptation

THE ASSESSMENT OF ENTREPRENEURIAL PERSONALITY: THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Suárez-Álvarez

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is fundamental in modern society because it represents an important source of innovation, employment, productivity, and growth. While the first theoretical models arose from economic and sociological approaches, psychology provides models that integrate different aspects such as cognitions, attitudes and personality, which allow a more detailed study. The purpose of this paper is to show the main contributions of psychology to the assessment of the enterprising personality. For this purpose, the main models and instruments developed to date were reviewed. The results confirm that the enterprising personality has a multidimensional structure and eight personality traits can be highlighted: achievement motivation, risk-taking, autonomy, self-efficacy, stress tolerance, innovativeness, internal locus of control, and optimism. From a methodological point of view, Item Response Theory and Computerised Adaptive Tests represent the most advanced and modern methods for assessing enterprising personality. There are currently several measurement instruments available. Future areas of research should be directed at the construction of multidimensional models as well as providing alternatives that facilitate a reduction in social desirability and other biases inherent in self-reports.

Procrastination, consideration of future consequences, and episodic future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Rebetez, Marie My Lien; Barsics, Catherine; Rochat, Lucien; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-05-01

Despite the intrinsic temporal nature of procrastination, little research has examined the link between this form of self-regulatory failure and the consideration of future consequences, and no study has addressed the link between procrastination and episodic future thinking. The aim of the present study was to explore these relationships. Participants were asked to project themselves into possible future events and to rate the amount of sensory-perceptual details and autonoetic consciousness associated with their representations. They were also asked to complete questionnaires that assessed procrastination, the consideration of future consequences, and negative affect. Results showed that both the consideration of future consequences and episodic future thinking were associated with procrastination, and in particular with procrastination-related decision making abilities and procrastination-related motivational dispositions, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Future Skills Requirements in the Hospitality Sector in Ireland, 2015-2020

OpenAIRE

2015-01-01

The hospitality sector is one of the most important employment services sectors in the Irish economy, and there is significant potential for future expansion. The objective of this study is to assess the skills demand needs arising within the Hospitality sector in Ireland – hotels, restaurants, bars, canteens and catering – over the period to 2020. The aim is to ensure that there will be the right supply of skills to help drive domestic hospitality sector business and employment growth.

Component processes underlying future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Ortoleva, Claudia; Jumentier, Sabrina; Van der Linden, Martial

2010-09-01

This study sought to investigate the component processes underlying the ability to imagine future events, using an individual-differences approach. Participants completed several tasks assessing different aspects of future thinking (i.e., fluency, specificity, amount of episodic details, phenomenology) and were also assessed with tasks and questionnaires measuring various component processes that have been hypothesized to support future thinking (i.e., executive processes, visual-spatial processing, relational memory processing, self-consciousness, and time perspective). The main results showed that executive processes were correlated with various measures of future thinking, whereas visual-spatial processing abilities and time perspective were specifically related to the number of sensory descriptions reported when specific future events were imagined. Furthermore, individual differences in self-consciousness predicted the subjective feeling of experiencing the imagined future events. These results suggest that future thinking involves a collection of processes that are related to different facets of future-event representation.

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental impacts of future low-carbon electricity systems: Detailed life cycle assessment of a Danish case study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Turconi, Roberto; Tonini, Davide; Nielsen, Christian F.B.

2014-01-01

by the modeling approach regarding the import of electricity, biomass provision, and the allocation between heat and power in cogeneration plants. As the importance of all three aspects is likely to increase in the future, transparency in LCA modeling is critical. Characterized impacts for Danish power plants......The need to reduce dependency on fossil resources and to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is driving many countries towards the implementation of low-carbon electricity systems. In this study the environmental impact of a future (2030) possible low-carbon electricity system in Denmark...... was assessed and compared with the current situation (2010) and an alternative 2030 scenario using life cycle assessment (LCA). The influence on the final results of the modeling approach used for (i) electricity import, (ii) biomass resources, and (iii) the cogeneration of heat and power was discussed...

Associations of Affective Responses During Free-Living Physical Activity and Future Physical Activity Levels: an Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Yue; Chou, Chih-Ping; Huh, Jimi; Leventhal, Adam; Dunton, Genevieve

2017-08-01

Affective response during physical activity may influence motivation to perform future physical activity behavior. However, affective response during physical activity is often assessed under controlled laboratory conditions. The current study used ecological momentary assessment (EMA) to capture affective responses during free-living physical activity performed by adults, and determined whether these affective responses predict future moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) levels after 6 and 12 months. At baseline, electronic EMA surveys were randomly prompted across 4 days asking about current activities and affective states (e.g., happy, stressed, energetic, tired). Affective response during physical activity was operationalized as the level of positive or negative affect reported when concurrent physical activity (e.g., exercise or sports) was also reported. Data were available for 82 adults. Future levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were measured using accelerometers, worn for seven consecutive days at 6 and 12 months after the baseline assessment. Feeling more energetic during physical activity was associated with performing more minutes of daily MVPA after both 6 and 12 months. Feeling less negative affect during physical activity was associated with engaging in more daily MVPA minutes after 12 months only. This study demonstrated how EMA can be used to capture affective responses during free-living physical activity. Results found that feelings more energetic and less negative during physical activity were associated with more future physical activity, suggesting that positive emotional benefits may reinforce behavior.

Process for Upgrading Cognitive Assessment Capabilities Onboard the International Space Station

Science.gov (United States)

Picano, J. J.; Seaton, K. A.; Holland, A. W.

2016-01-01

measures and assessment issues and procedures. SIGNIFICANCE: Our process and the results that flowed from it may be helpful to aeromedical professionals charged with transitioning research findings to operational use. Our specific findings regarding cognitive assessment tools are of significance to professionals who must assess readiness to perform in mission critical situations in environments involving threats to cognition and performance

Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

CERN Document Server

Lebrun, Philippe

2010-01-01

High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2013-01-01

This paper employs a novel Monte-Carlo based generation portfolio assessment tool to explore the implications of increasing wind penetration and carbon prices within future electricity generation portfolios under considerable uncertainty. This tool combines optimal generation mix techniques with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis methods to determine expected overall generation costs, associated cost uncertainty and expected CO 2 emissions for different possible generation portfolios. A case study of an electricity industry with coal, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) and wind generation options that faces uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing, electricity demand and plant construction costs is presented to illustrate some of the key issues associated with growing wind penetrations. The case study uses half-hourly demand and wind generation data from South Eastern Australia, and regional estimates of new-build plant costs and characteristics. Results suggest that although wind generation generally increases overall industry costs, it reduces associated cost uncertainties and CO 2 emissions. However, there are some cases in which wind generation can reduce the overall costs of generation portfolios. The extent to which wind penetration affects industry expected costs and uncertainties depends on the level of carbon price and the conventional technology mix in the portfolios. - Highlights: ► A probabilistic portfolio analysis tool to assess generation portfolios with wind power. ► Explore the impacts of wind penetrations and carbon prices under uncertainties. ► Wind generation increases overall portfolio costs but reduces cost risks and emissions. ► The value of wind power depends on the carbon price and the technology mix. ► Complex interactions between wind penetration level and carbon pricing.

Tidal current energy resource assessment in Ireland: Current status and future update

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Rourke, Fergal; Boyle, Fergal; Reynolds, Anthony

2010-01-01

Interest in renewable energy in Ireland has increased continually over the past decade. This interest is due primarily to security of supply issues and the effects of climate change. Ireland imports over 90% of its primary energy consumption, mostly in the form of fossil fuels. The exploitation of Ireland's vast indigenous renewable energy resources is required in order to reduce this over-dependence on fossil fuel imports to meet energy demand. Various targets have been set by the Irish government to incorporate renewable energy technologies into Ireland's energy market. As a result of these targets, the development in wind energy has increased substantially over the past decade; however this method of energy extraction is intermittent and unpredictable. Ireland has an excellent tidal current energy resource and the use of this resource will assist in the development of a sustainable energy future. Energy extraction using tidal current energy technologies offers a vast and predictable energy resource. This paper reviews the currently accepted tidal current energy resource assessment for Ireland. This assessment was compiled by Sustainable Energy Ireland in a report in 2004. The assessment employed a 2-dimensional numerical model of the tidal current velocities around Ireland, and from this numerical model the theoretical tidal current energy resource was identified. With the introduction of constraints and limitations, the technical, practical, accessible and viable tidal current energy resources were obtained. The paper discusses why the assessment needs updating including the effect on the assessment of the current stage of development of tidal current turbines and their deployment technology. (author)

The Application of Isotope Techniques in Nutrient Assessment and Management in Riverine Systems. Present and Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ito, M.; Newman, B. D. [International Atomic Energy Agency, Isotope Hydrology Section, Vienna (Austria); Hadwen, W. L. [Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University - Nathan Campus, Brisbane, Queensland (Australia); Rogers, K. [National Isotope Center, GNS Science, Lower Hutt (New Zealand); Mayer, B. [Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada); Hein, T. [Wasser Cluster Lunz, Interuniversitary Center for Aquatic Research, Lunz-See, and University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Institute of Hydrobiology and Aquatic Ecosystem Management, Vienna (Austria); Stellato, L. [Centre for Isotopic Research on Cultural and Environmental Heritage (CIRCE), Seconda Universita degli Studi di Napoli, Caserta (Italy); Ohte, N. [Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan); Mclaughlin, K. [Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Costa Mesa, California (United States)

2013-05-15

A variety of sources contribute to nutrients in rivers and nutrients may subsequently take various pathways and undergo different transformation processes. We first review representative types of isotopes and the roles of isotope techniques that have been or could be used for nutrient assessment and management. We then present technical, financial and logistical matters to be considered in selecting appropriate isotope techniques for nutrient assessment and management. Lastly we propose several approaches on the application of isotope techniques to make more effective the studies and management of nutrients in rivers in the near future. (author)

Judging the Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome Assessment Tools to Guide Future Tool Development: The use of Clinimetrics as Opposed to Psychometrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Westgate, Philip M; Gomez-Pomar, Enrique

2017-01-01

In the face of the current Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome (NAS) epidemic, there is considerable variability in the assessment and management of infants with NAS. In this manuscript, we particularly focus on NAS assessment, with special attention given to the popular Finnegan Neonatal Abstinence Score (FNAS). A major instigator of the problem of variable practices is that multiple modified versions of the FNAS exist and continue to be proposed, including shortened versions. Furthermore, the validity of such assessment tools has been questioned, and as a result, the need for better tools has been suggested. The ultimate purpose of this manuscript, therefore, is to increase researchers' and clinicians' understanding on how to judge the usefulness of NAS assessment tools in order to guide future tool development and to reduce variable practices. In short, we suggest that judgment of NAS assessment tools should be made on a clinimetrics viewpoint as opposed to psychometrically. We provide examples, address multiple issues that must be considered, and discuss future tool development. Furthermore, we urge researchers and clinicians to come together, utilizing their knowledge and experience, to assess the utility and practicality of existing assessment tools and to determine if one or more new or modified tools are needed with the goal of increased agreement on the assessment of NAS in practice.

Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

Science.gov (United States)

DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

2017-01-01

NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

Judging the Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome Assessment Tools to Guide Future Tool Development: The use of Clinimetrics as Opposed to Psychometrics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philip M. Westgate

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In the face of the current Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome (NAS epidemic, there is considerable variability in the assessment and management of infants with NAS. In this manuscript, we particularly focus on NAS assessment, with special attention given to the popular Finnegan Neonatal Abstinence Score (FNAS. A major instigator of the problem of variable practices is that multiple modified versions of the FNAS exist and continue to be proposed, including shortened versions. Furthermore, the validity of such assessment tools has been questioned, and as a result, the need for better tools has been suggested. The ultimate purpose of this manuscript, therefore, is to increase researchers’ and clinicians’ understanding on how to judge the usefulness of NAS assessment tools in order to guide future tool development and to reduce variable practices. In short, we suggest that judgment of NAS assessment tools should be made on a clinimetrics viewpoint as opposed to psychometrically. We provide examples, address multiple issues that must be considered, and discuss future tool development. Furthermore, we urge researchers and clinicians to come together, utilizing their knowledge and experience, to assess the utility and practicality of existing assessment tools and to determine if one or more new or modified tools are needed with the goal of increased agreement on the assessment of NAS in practice.

Determination of significance in Ecological Impact Assessment: Past change, current practice and future improvements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Briggs, Sam; Hudson, Malcolm D., E-mail: mdh@soton.ac.uk

2013-01-15

Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) is an important tool for conservation and achieving sustainable development. 'Significant' impacts are those which disturb or alter the environment to a measurable degree. Significance is a crucial part of EcIA, our understanding of the concept in practice is vital if it is to be effective as a tool. This study employed three methods to assess how the determination of significance has changed through time, what current practice is, and what would lead to future improvements. Three data streams were collected: interviews with expert stakeholders, a review of 30 Environmental Statements and a broad-scale survey of the United Kingdom Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (IEEM) members. The approach taken in the determination of significance has become more standardised and subjectivity has become constrained through a transparent framework. This has largely been driven by a set of guidelines produced by IEEM in 2006. The significance of impacts is now more clearly justified and the accuracy with which it is determined has improved. However, there are limitations to accuracy and effectiveness of the determination of significance. These are the quality of baseline survey data, our scientific understanding of ecological processes and the lack of monitoring and feedback of results. These in turn are restricted by the limited resources available in consultancies. The most notable recommendations for future practice are the implementation of monitoring and the publication of feedback, the creation of a central database for baseline survey data and the streamlining of guidance. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The assessment of significance has changed markedly through time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The IEEM guidelines have driven a standardisation of practice. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Currently limited by quality of baseline data and scientific understanding. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Monitoring

French Health Technology Assessment of Antineoplastic Drugs Indicated in the Treatment of Solid Tumours: Perspective for Future Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Chouaid, Christos; Borget, Isabelle; Braun, Eric; Bazil, Marie-Laure; Schaetz, Dominique; Rémuzat, Cécile; Toumi, Mondher

2016-08-01

France is one of the European countries that spend the most on oncology drugs. To keep pharmaceutical expenditure under control, Health Authorities highly scrutinize market access of costly medicines. To assess current and future trends in French health technology assessment (HTA) of antineoplastic drugs indicated in the treatment of solid tumours. A review of the SMR and ASMR drivers of the Transparency Committee (CT) opinions issued for antineoplastic drugs indicated in the treatment of solid tumours and approved between 2009 and 2014 was performed to assess current trends in French health technology assessment (HTA), complemented by an expert board consultation to capture the critical issues on the future of antineoplastic drugs HTA. Thirty-one drugs indicated for the treatment of solid tumours were identified (77 % targeted therapies). Initial CT assessments were available for 26 drugs. Four key items in the CT assessment were identified: 1) Clinical trial methodology; 2) Acceptance of progression-free survival (PFS) as a valuable endpoint; 3) Transferability of clinical trials in clinical practice; 4) Unpredictability of CT decisions. Experts raised the important development of personalised medicines in oncology and key challenges for oncology products to generate information expected from HTA perspective. The French system remains committed to its values and philosophy (access of all innovations for everybody) which are threatened by the increasing launch of innovative therapies and budget constraint. Both HTA decision framework evolution and revision of the current pricing process should be considered in France to cope with these new challenges.

Methodological considerations and future insights for 24-hour dietary recall assessment in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, Emma; Bradley, Jennifer

2018-03-01

Dietary assessment has come under much criticism of late to the extent that it has been questioned whether self-reported methods of dietary assessment are worth doing at all. Widespread under-reporting of energy intake, limitations due to memory, changes to intake due to the burden of recording and social desirability bias all impact significantly on the accuracy of the dietary information collected. Under-reporting of energy intakes has long been recognized as a problem in dietary research with doubly labeled water measures of energy expenditure uncovering significant under-reporting of energy intakes across different populations and different dietary assessment methods. In this review we focus on dietary assessment with children with particular attention on the 24-hour dietary recall method. We look at the level of under-reporting of energy intakes and how this tends to change with age, gender and body mass index. We discuss potential alternatives to self-reported (or proxy-reported) dietary assessment methods with children, such as biomarkers, and how these do not enable the collection of information important to public health nutrition such as the cooking method, the mixture of foods eaten together or the context in which the food is consumed. We conclude that despite all of the challenges and flaws, the data collected using self-reported dietary assessment methods are extremely valuable. Research into dietary assessment methodology has resulted in significant increases in our understanding of the limitations of self-reported methods and progressive improvements in the accuracy of the data collected. Hence, future investment in dietary surveillance and in improving self-reported methods of intake can make vital contributions to our understanding of dietary intakes and are thus warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Abstract for presentation on Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions. The abstract is attached.

Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

Science.gov (United States)

Popescu, I.; Brandimarte, L.; Perera, M. S. U.; Peviani, M.

2012-08-01

La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irene R Faber

Full Text Available Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years. Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05. Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%. Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%. This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

Environmental Assessment for Ongoing and Future Operations at U.S. Navy Dabob Bay and Hood Canal Military Operating Areas

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

2002-01-01

...) of the Department of the Navy gives notice that an Environmental Assessment (EA) has been prepared for the proposed action of implement inc an Operations Management Plan for ongoing and future operations at the U.S...

Postcessation weight gain concern as a barrier to smoking cessation: Assessment considerations and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Germeroth, Lisa J; Levine, Michele D

2018-01-01

Concern about postcessation weight gain may be one potential barrier to quitting smoking. In this 'mini-review' of recent literature, we summarize findings on the relationship between postcessation weight gain concern and smoking cessation, and evaluate varied use of postcessation weight gain concern assessments and potential moderators of the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation association. We conducted a search using the terms "smoking" OR "smoking cessation" AND "weight concern" for articles published between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2016. We identified 17 studies assessing postcessation weight gain concern, seven of which evaluated the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation association. The relationship between postcessation weight gain concern and smoking cessation was mixed. Recent studies varied in their assessments of postcessation weight gain concern, many of which were not validated and assessed correlates of this construct. Studies varied in their adjustment of demographic (e.g., sex), smoking-specific (e.g., smoking level), and weight-specific (e.g., body mass index) variables. The use of non-validated assessments and variability in testing covariates/moderators may contribute to conflicting results regarding the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation relationship. We recommend validating an assessment of postcessation weight gain concern, maintaining vigilance in testing and reporting covariates/moderators, and investigating trajectories of this construct over time and by smoking status to inform future assessment and intervention efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Troejbom, Mats; Grolander, Sara

2010-12-01

This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Grolander, Sara (Facilia AB (Sweden))

2010-12-15

This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

Beyond the MEGA BORG: The future of cooperative damage assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, J.P.; Seiler, R.; Mauseth, G.

1993-01-01

Prespill planning and coordination are the major requirements of industry and government to ensure future cooperative natural resource damage assessments (NRDA). Since oil spills most often occur without warning, both parties must be prepared prior to an oil spill into the environment. Federal and State co-trustees should enter into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to ensure cooperation and coordination among trustees in all NRDA activities. The MOU should provide the framework whereby each trustee's resource interests can be represented. Ideally, MOUs should be prepared during the prespill planning process, although the MEGA BORG MOU was prepared soon after the actual discharge. The establishment of co-trustee working groups will foster the positive working relationships necessary in cooperative NRDAs. The trustees should identify all potential co-trustees in a given area and agree on a mechanism for trustee notification. Criteria for the rapid designation of the Lead Administrative Trustee and approaches for coordination with response agencies and potential responsible parties (PRPs) need to be developed. Most importantly, the trustees should identify PRPs and invite their participation in the prespill planning process

A Tool for Assessing Future Capacity Loss Due to Sedimentation in the United States' Reservoirs

Science.gov (United States)

Pinson, A. O.; Baker, B.; White, K. D.

2017-12-01

Federal reservoirs are critical components of the United States' water supply, flood risk management, hydropower and navigation infrastructure. These reservoirs included capacity for storage loss due to the deposition of sediment by inflowing streams in their original design. However, the actual rate of capacity loss experienced is controlled in part by climate, topography, soils, and land use/land cover, and may vary from the design. To assess the current and future vulnerability of its reservoirs to sedimentation. USACE has developed an online planning tool to identify USACE reservoirs where sedimentation is currently a problem (e.g., sedimentation rate exceeds design sedimentation rate, or zone losses disproportionately affect authorized purposes), and reservoirs where rates are expected to increase significantly in the future. The goal is to be able to prioritize operation and maintenance actions to minimize the effects of reservoir capacity loss on authorized purposes and help maximize reservoir use life.

Assessing the need for future veterinary surgeons.

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, Manuela

2013-12-21

While some in the profession are concerned about a possible 'overproduction' of vets, others argue that more might be needed to help meet current and future challenges. A debate at this year's BVA Congress tackled the question of how many vets are required, while considering how their unique skills might be more widely applied. Manuela Herrera reports.

Preliminary assessment of future refining impacts of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hadder, G.R.

1991-09-01

A preliminary assessment of the future refining impacts of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 has been performed with the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting Systems. The assessment suggests that gasoline reformulation costs in domestic coastal and near-coastal refining regions in the year 2000 could be 3.5 to 5.6 cents per gallon (in terms of 1989 currency). For heating value equivalent to one gallon of conventional gasoline, the regional total added costs (including reformulation costs) for reformulated gasoline could be 5.9 to 8.0 cents. In blending reformulated gasolines, the reduction of butane for lower Reid vapor pressure and the reduction of reformate for lower aromatics are generally compensated by increased percentages of alkylate and/or straight run naphthas. Relatively larger refinery process capacity additions are required for butane isomerization, alkylation, aromatics recovery, and distillate hydrotreating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 18 tabs

Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Popescu

2012-08-01

Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB, and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Raposo, Juan Ramón; Dafonte, Jorge; Molinero, Jorge

2013-03-01

Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer-autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.

Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

2010-01-01

County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

Current activities and future trends in reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment in Hungary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollo, E.; Toth, J.

1986-01-01

In Hungary reliability analysis (RA) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants was initiated 3 years ago. First, computer codes for automatic fault tree analysis (CAT, PREP) and numerical evaluation (REMO, KITT1,2) were adapted. Two main case studies - detailed availability/reliability calculation of diesel sets and analysis of safety systems influencing event sequences induced by large LOCA - were performed. Input failure data were taken from publications, a need for failure and reliability data bank was revealed. Current and future activities involves: setup of national data bank for WWER-440 units; full-scope level-I PSA of PAKS NPP in Hungary; operational safety assessment of particular problems at PAKS NPP. In the present article the state of RA and PSA activities in Hungary, as well as the main objectives of ongoing work are described. A need for international cooperation (for unified data collection of WWER-440 units) and for IAEA support (within Interregional Program INT/9/063) is emphasized. (author)

Focus on the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanner, M.S.

1988-01-01

An assessment is made of what was learned from Halley and recommendations are made for future directions for infrared studies of comets and supporting lab investigations. The following issues are addressed: (1) What steps can be taken to achieve consistent interpretation of Halley infrared data; (2) How successful has the Halley Watch been for infrared studies; (3) What supporting lab research is needed; (4) What are the key infrared observations needed for future comets; and (5) How do current and future NASA programs relate to comet studies

Solar energy systems: assessment of present and future potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuehne, H.-M.; Aulich, H.

1992-01-01

This paper discusses the present state and the future potential of solar thermal and photovoltaic (PV) technologies, and examines both the environmental implications of these technologies and the economics which determine their viability in the energy market. Although some significant cost reductions have been achieved, particularly in PV technology, solar conversion technologies are still not generally competitive against conventional fuels, and future cost reductions may be limited. It is argued that fiscal measures will be necessary if solar conversion technologies are to make a significant global impact. (Author)

Flow and Noise Control: Review and Assessment of Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Russell H.; Choudhari, Meelan M.; Joslin, Ronald D.

2002-01-01

Technologies for developing radically new aerovehicles that would combine quantum leaps in cost, safety, and performance benefits with environmental friendliness have appeared on the horizon. This report provides both an assessment of the current state-of-the-art in flow and noise control and a vision for the potential gains to be made, in terms of performance benefit for civil and military aircraft and a unique potential for noise reduction, via future advances in flow and noise technologies. This report outlines specific areas of research that will enable the breakthroughs necessary to bring this vision to reality. Recent developments in many topics within flow and noise control are reviewed. The flow control overview provides succinct summaries of various approaches for drag reduction and improved maneuvering. Both exterior and interior noise problems are examined, including dominant noise sources, physics of noise generation and propagation, and both established and proposed concepts for noise reduction. Synergy between flow and noise control is a focus and, more broadly, the need to pursue research in a more concurrent approach involving multiple disciplines. Also discussed are emerging technologies such as nanotechnology that may have a significant impact on the progress of flow and noise control.

Environmental impacts of future low-carbon electricity systems: Detailed life cycle assessment of a Danish case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turconi, Roberto; Tonini, Davide; Nielsen, Christian F.B.; Simonsen, Christian G.; Astrup, Thomas

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Environmental impact of a power system with a high share of wind power assessed. • LCI data for electricity supply in Denmark in 2010 and 2030 (low carbon) provided. • Focus on GHG reduction may lead to increase in other impact categories. • Imported biomass might cause high GHG emissions form Land Use Change. • Need for guidelines for LCA of electricity supply (cogeneration and power import). - Abstract: The need to reduce dependency on fossil resources and to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is driving many countries towards the implementation of low-carbon electricity systems. In this study the environmental impact of a future (2030) possible low-carbon electricity system in Denmark was assessed and compared with the current situation (2010) and an alternative 2030 scenario using life cycle assessment (LCA). The influence on the final results of the modeling approach used for (i) electricity import, (ii) biomass resources, and (iii) the cogeneration of heat and power was discussed. The results showed that consumption of fossil resources and global warming impacts from the Danish electricity sector could be reduced significantly compared with 2010. Nevertheless, a reduction in GHG may be at the expense of other environmental impacts, such as the increased depletion of abiotic resources. Moreover, the results were very dependent upon biomass origin: when agricultural land was affected by biomass import, and land use changes and transportation were included, GHG emissions from imported biomass were comparable to those from fossil fuels. The results were significantly influenced by the modeling approach regarding the import of electricity, biomass provision, and the allocation between heat and power in cogeneration plants. As the importance of all three aspects is likely to increase in the future, transparency in LCA modeling is critical. Characterized impacts for Danish power plants in 2010 and 2030 (including corresponding

Organization and methodology approach for the safety assessment of the present situation and the future works on Chernobyl-4 and the site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bachner, D.; Benoist, E.; Duco, J.; Jahns, A.

1995-01-01

This work deals with the organization and methodology approach for the safety assessment of the present situation and the future works on Chernobyl 4 and the site. It presents the results of a common preliminary discussion in order to formulate advices on the basic management of the Chernobyl safety assessment process. (O.L.)

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

Assessing the Effects of a Work-Based Antipoverty Program for Parents on Youth's Future Orientation and Employment Experiences

Science.gov (United States)

McLoyd, Vonnie C.; Kaplan, Rachel; Purtell, Kelly M.; Huston, Aletha C.

2011-01-01

The impacts of New Hope, a 3-year work-based antipoverty program to increase parent employment and reduce poverty, on youth ages 9-19 (N = 866) were assessed 5 years after parents left the program. New Hope had positive effects on the future orientation and employment experiences of boys, especially African American boys. Compared to boys in…

The impact of adolescent females' assessments of parenthood and employment on plans for the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie, L A

1986-02-01

This study explores adolescent females' assessments of the rewards and costs of employment and parenthood, and the impact of these assessments on their plans for organizing their adult lives. 549 young women enrolled in the 11th and 12 grades at public schools in New York City completed questionnaires addressing their future work and fertility plans, characteristics of their present family life, and their assessments of how rewarding and costly the roles of employee and parent would be to them. Results suggest that daughters of homemakers and daughters of employed women differ in their assessment of each role, and take different factors into consideration when making these assessments. In evaluating work, daughters whose mothers are employed were likely to depend on their mothers' experiences for guidance. On the other hand, daughters whose mothers are homemakers have to go through a more elaborate process of deduction. They appear to assess whether their mothers are happy where they are now and then project whether another role would be more satisfying. These young women also tend to incorporate the opinion of the father more than do daughters of employed mothers. In evaluating the impact of children, the young woman's relation with her own mother is a critical factor affecting both group' assessments of the costs of children as well as the employed group's assessments of the rewards of children. Finally, the limitations of the sample should be kept in mind when discussing the results. Though the sample was large numerically, the overall response rate was low. In addition, the sample consisted of a large number of Catholic respondents.

Detecting acute distress and risk of future psychological morbidity in critically ill patients: validation of the intensive care psychological assessment tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Wade, Dorothy M; Hankins, Matthew; Smyth, Deborah A; Rhone, Elijah E; Mythen, Michael G; Howell, David C J; Weinman, John A

2014-09-24

The psychological impact of critical illness on a patient can be severe, and frequently results in acute distress as well as psychological morbidity after leaving hospital. A UK guideline states that patients should be assessed in critical care units, both for acute distress and risk of future psychological morbidity; but no suitable method for carrying out this assessment exists. The Intensive care psychological assessment tool (IPAT) was developed as a simple, quick screening tool to be used routinely to detect acute distress, and the risk of future psychological morbidity, in critical care units. A validation study of IPAT was conducted in the critical care unit of a London hospital. Once un-sedated, orientated and alert, critical care patients were assessed with the IPAT and validated tools for distress, to determine the IPAT's concurrent validity. Fifty six patients took IPAT again to establish test-retest reliability. Finally, patients completed posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety questionnaires at three months, to determine predictive validity of the IPAT. One hundred and sixty six patients completed the IPAT, and 106 completed follow-up questionnaires at 3 months. Scale analysis showed IPAT was a reliable 10-item measure of critical care-related psychological distress. Test-retest reliability was good (r =0.8). There was good concurrent validity with measures of anxiety and depression (r =0.7, P psychological morbidity was good (r =0.4, P psychological morbidity (AUC =0.7). The IPAT was found to have good reliability and validity. Sensitivity and specificity analysis suggest the IPAT could provide a way of allowing staff to assess psychological distress among critical care patients after further replication and validation. Further work is also needed to determine its utility in predicting future psychological morbidity.

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

2016-01-01

, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K, Bois FY, Burgoon LD, Chiu WA, Crawford-Brown D, Crofton KM, DeVito M, Devlin RB, Edwards SW, Guyton KZ, Hattis D, Judson RS, Knight D, Krewski D, Lambert J, Maull EA, Mendrick D, Paoli GM, Patel CJ, Perkins EJ, Poje G, Portier CJ, Rusyn I, Schulte PA, Simeonov A, Smith MT, Thayer KA, Thomas RS, Thomas R, Tice RR, Vandenberg JJ, Villeneuve DL, Wesselkamper S, Whelan M, Whittaker C, White R, Xia M, Yauk C, Zeise L, Zhao J, DeWoskin RS. 2016. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment multiyear study—highlights of findings, applications to risk assessment, and future directions. Environ Health Perspect 124:1671–1682; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP233 PMID:27091369

Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

1994-01-01

of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification......This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

Current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. 1. Features and issues of probabilistic risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamashita, Masahiro

2012-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) could play an important role in assuring safety of NPPs. However PRA had not always effectively used, which was indicated in Japanese government's report on Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. At the Risk Technical Committee (RTC) of Standards Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan, preparation of standards (implementing criteria) focusing on PRA methodology and investigation on basic philosophy for use of PRA had been in progress. Based on activities of RTC, a serial in three articles including this described current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. This article introduced features and issues of PRA methodology related to the use of PRA. Features of PRA methodology could be shown as (1) systematic and comprehensive understanding of risk, (2) support of grading approach, (3) identification of effective safety upgrade measures and (4) quantitative understanding of effects of uncertainty. Issues of PRA methodology were (1) extension of PRA application area, (2) upgrade of PRA methodology, (3) quality assurance of PRA, (4) treatment of uncertainty and (5) quantitative evaluation criteria. (T. Tanaka)

Amnesia and future thinking: Exploring the role of memory in the quantity and quality of episodic future thoughts.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Scott N; Morrison, Catriona M; Barak, Ohr; Pauly-Takacs, Katalin; Conway, Martin A

2016-06-01

To examine the impact of memory accessibility on episodic future thinking. Single-case study of neurological patient HCM and an age-matched comparison group of neurologically Healthy Controls. We administered a full battery of tests assessing general intelligence, memory, and executive functioning. To assess autobiographical memory, the Autobiographical Memory Interview (Kopelman, Wilson, & Baddeley, 1990. The Autobiographical Memory Interview. Bury St. Edmunds, UK: Thames Valley Test Company) was administered. The Past Episodic and Future Episodic sections of Dalla Barba's Confabulation Battery (Dalla Barba, 1993, Cogn. Neuropsychol., 1, 1) and a specifically tailored Mental Time Travel Questionnaire were administered to assess future thinking in HCM and age-matched controls. HCM presented with a deficit in forming new memories (anterograde amnesia) and recalling events from before the onset of neurological impairment (retrograde amnesia). HCM's autobiographical memory impairments are characterized by a paucity of memories from Recent Life. In comparison with controls, two features of his future thoughts are apparent: Reduced episodic future thinking and outdated content of his episodic future thoughts. This article suggests neuropsychologists should look beyond popular conceptualizations of the past-future relation in amnesia via focussing on reduced future thinking. Investigating both the quantity and quality of future thoughts produced by amnesic patients may lead to developments in understanding the complex nature of future thinking disorders resulting from memory impairments. We highlight the clinical importance of examining the content of future thoughts in amnesic patients, rather than only its quantitative reduction. We propose an explanation of how quantitative and qualitative aspects of future thinking could be affected by amnesia. This could provide a useful approach to understand clinical cases of impaired prospection. Systematic group investigations

The actual development of European aviation safety requirements in aviation medicine: prospects of future EASA requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

Siedenburg, J

2009-04-01

Common Rules for Aviation Safety had been developed under the aegis of the Joint Aviation Authorities in the 1990s. In 2002 the Basic Regulation 1592/2002 was the founding document of a new entity, the European Aviation Safety Agency. Areas of activity were Certification and Maintenance of aircraft. On 18 March the new Basic Regulation 216/2008, repealing the original Basic Regulation was published and applicable from 08 April on. The included Essential Requirements extended the competencies of EASA inter alia to Pilot Licensing and Flight Operations. The future aeromedical requirements will be included as Annex II in another Implementing Regulation on Personnel Licensing. The detailed provisions will be published as guidance material. The proposals for these provisions have been published on 05 June 2008 as NPA 2008- 17c. After public consultation, processing of comments and final adoption the new proposals may be applicable form the second half of 2009 on. A transition period of four year will apply. Whereas the provisions are based on Joint Aviation Requirement-Flight Crew Licensing (JAR-FCL) 3, a new Light Aircraft Pilot Licence (LAPL) project and the details of the associated medical certification regarding general practitioners will be something new in aviation medicine. This paper consists of 6 sections. The introduction outlines the idea of international aviation safety. The second section describes the development of the Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA), the first step to common rules for aviation safety in Europe. The third section encompasses a major change as next step: the foundation of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the development of its rules. In the following section provides an outline of the new medical requirements. Section five emphasizes the new concept of a Leisure Pilot Licence. The last section gives an outlook on ongoing rulemaking activities and the opportunities of the public to participate in them.

The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Gaudard, Ludovic; Madani, Kaveh; Romerio, Franco

2016-04-01

The future of hydropower depends on various drivers, and in particular on climate change, electricity market evolution and innovation in new storage technologies. Their impacts on the power plants' profitability can widely differ in regards of scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In this respect, the risk should not be expressed only in terms of expected revenue, but also of uncertainty. These two aspects must be considered to assess the future of hydropower. This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change, electricity market volatility and competing energy storage's technologies and quantifies them in terms of annual revenue. Our simulations integrate a glacio-hydrological model (GERM) with various electricity market data and models (mean reversion and jump diffusion). The medium (2020-50) and long-term (2070-2100) are considered thanks to various greenhouse gas scenarios (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and the stochastic approach for the electricity prices. An algorithm named "threshold acceptance" is used to optimize the reservoir operations. The impacts' scale, and the related uncertainties are presented for Mauvoisin, which is a storage-hydropower plant situated in the Swiss Alps, and two generic pure pumped-storage installations, which are assessed with the prices of 17 European electricity markets. The discussion will highlight the key differences between the impacts brought about by the drivers.

Episodic memory and future thinking during early childhood: Linking the past and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Cuevas, Kimberly; Rajan, Vinaya; Morasch, Katherine C; Bell, Martha Ann

2015-07-01

Despite extensive examination of episodic memory and future thinking development, little is known about the concurrent emergence of these capacities during early childhood. In Experiment 1, 3-year-olds participated in an episodic memory hiding task ("what, when, where" [WWW] components) with an episodic future thinking component. In Experiment 2, a group of 4-year-olds (including children from Experiment 1) participated in the same task (different objects and locations), providing the first longitudinal investigation of episodic memory and future thinking. Although children exhibited age-related improvements in recall, recognition, and binding of the WWW episodic memory components, there were no age-related changes in episodic future thinking. At both ages, WWW episodic memory performance was higher than future thinking performance, and episodic future thinking and WWW memory components were unrelated. These findings suggest that the WWW components of episodic memory are potentially less fragile than the future components when assessed in a cognitively demanding task. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Z.

2015-12-01

Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

Back to the Future - Part 2. Post-mortem assessment and evolutionary role of the bio-medicolegal sciences.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrara, Santo Davide; Cecchetto, Giovanni; Cecchi, Rossana; Favretto, Donata; Grabherr, Silke; Ishikawa, Takaki; Kondo, Toshikazu; Montisci, Massimo; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Bonati, Maurizio Rippa; Shokry, Dina; Vennemann, Marielle; Bajanowski, Thomas

2017-07-01

Part 2 of the review "Back to the Future" is dedicated to the evolutionary role of the bio-medicolegal sciences, reporting the historical profiles, the state of the art, and prospects for future development of the main related techniques and methods of the ancillary disciplines that have risen to the role of "autonomous" sciences, namely, Genetics and Genomics, Toxicology, Radiology, and Imaging, involved in historic synergy in the "post-mortem assessment," together with the mother discipline Legal Medicine, by way of its primary fundament, universally denominated as Forensic Pathology. The evolution of the scientific research and the increased accuracy of the various disciplines will be oriented towards the elaboration of an "algorithm," able to weigh the value of "evidence" placed at the disposal of the "justice system" as real truth and proof.

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Future technology in cochlear implants: assessing the benefit.

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, Robert J S

2011-05-01

It has been over 50 years since Djourno and Eyries first attempted electric stimulation in a patient with deafness. Over this time, the Cochlear Implant (CI) has become not only remarkably successful, but increasingly complex. Although the basic components of the system still comprise an implanted receiver stimulator and electrode, externally worn speech processor, microphone, control system, and power source, there are now several alternative designs of these components with different attributes that can be variably combined to meet the needs of specific patient groups. Development by the manufacturers has been driven both by these various patient needs, and also by the desire to achieve technological superiority, or at least differentiation, ultimately in pursuit of market share. Assessment of benefit is the responsibility of clinicians. It is incumbent on both industry and clinicians to ensure appropriate, safe, and affordable introduction of new technology. For example, experience with the totally implanted cochlear implant (TIKI) has demonstrated that quality of hearing is the over-riding consideration for CI users. To date, improved hearing outcomes have been achieved by improvements in: speech processing strategies; microphone technology; pre-processing strategies; electrode placement; bilateral implantation; use of a hearing aid in the opposite ear (bimodal stimulation); and the combination of electric and acoustic stimulation in the same ear. The resulting expansion of CI candidacy, with more residual hearing, further improves the outcomes achieved. Largely facilitated by advances in electronic capability and computerization, it can be expected that these improvements will continue. However, marked variability of results still occurs and we cannot assure any individual patient of their outcome. Realistic goals for implementation of new technology include: improved hearing in noise and music perception; effective invisible hearing (no external apparatus

Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael R. Guzy

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

2016-12-01

Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

Life cycle assessment : Past, present, and future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Guinée, Jeroen B.; Heijungs, Reinout; Huppes, Gjalt; Zamagni, Alessandra; Masoni, Paolo; Buonamici, Roberto; Ekvall, Tomas; Rydberg, Tomas

2011-01-01

Environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) has developed fast over the last three decades. Whereas LCA developed from merely energy analysis to a comprehensive environmental burden analysis in the 1970s, full-fledged life cycle impact assessment and life cycle costing models were introduced in the

Assessment of scapular positioning and function as future effect measure of shoulder interventions – an inter-examiner reliability study of the clinical assessment methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Camilla Marie; Eshøj, Henrik; Ingwersen, Kim Gordon

2015-01-01

Assessment of scapular positioning and function as future effect measure of shoulder interventions – an inter-examiner reliability study of the clinical assessment methods Eshøj H1, Ingwersen KG1, Larsen CM1, 2, Søgaard K1, Juul-Kristensen B1, 3 1 University of Southern Denmark, Institute of Sports...... only been tested for intra-examiner reliability. The objective was to investigate the inter-examiner reliability of an extended battery of clinical tests for assessing scapular positioning and function. Methods A standardized three-phase protocol for clinical reliability studies was conducted...... coefficients (ICC) and kappa values were interpreted as: 0.0-0.40 (poor); 0.40-0.75 (fair to good); and 0.75-1.00 (good to excellent). Results A total of 41 subjects (23 males, yrs 25±9), were recruited among adult overhead athletes from the municipality of Odense, DK. Prevalence of the index condition was 54...

A simulator-based study of in-flight auscultation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tourtier, Jean-Pierre; Libert, Nicolas; Clapson, Patrick; Dubourdieu, Stéphane; Jost, Daniel; Tazarourte, Karim; Astaud, Cécil-Emmanuel; Debien, Bruno; Auroy, Yves

2014-04-01

The use of a stethoscope is essential to the delivery of continuous, supportive en route care during aeromedical evacuations. We compared the capability of 2 stethoscopes (electronic, Litmann 3000; conventional, Litmann Cardiology III) at detecting pathologic heart and lung sounds, aboard a C135, a medical transport aircraft. Sounds were mimicked using a mannequin-based simulator SimMan. Five practitioners examined the mannequin during a fly, with a variety of abnormalities as follows: crackles, wheezing, right and left lung silence, as well as systolic, diastolic, and Austin-Flint murmur. The comparison for diagnosis assessed (correct or wrong) between using the electronic and conventional stethoscopes were performed as a McNemar test. A total of 70 evaluations were performed. For cardiac sounds, diagnosis was right in 0/15 and 4/15 auscultations, respectively, with conventional and electronic stethoscopes (McNemar test, P = 0.13). For lung sounds, right diagnosis was found with conventional stethoscope in 10/20 auscultations versus 18/20 with electronic stethoscope (P = 0.013). Flight practitioners involved in aeromedical evacuation on C135 plane are more able to practice lung auscultation on a mannequin with this amplified stethoscope than with the traditional one. No benefit was found for heart sounds.

Comprehensive Care Plan Development Using Resident Assessment Instrument Framework: Past, Present, and Future Practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mary Ellen Dellefield

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Development of the comprehensive care plan (CCP is a requirement for nursing homes participating in the federal Medicare and Medicaid programs, referred to as skilled nursing facilities. The plan must be developed within the context of the comprehensive interdisciplinary assessment framework—the Resident Assessment Instrument (RAI. Consistent compliance with this requirement has been difficult to achieve. To improve the quality of CCP development within this framework, an increased understanding of complex factors contributing to inconsistent compliance is required. In this commentary, we examine the history of the comprehensive care plan; its development within the RAI framework; linkages between the RAI and registered nurse staffing; empirical evidence of the CCP’s efficacy; and the limitations of extant standards of practices in CCP development. Because of the registered nurse’s educational preparation, professional practice standards, and licensure obligations, the essential contributions of professional nurses in CCP development are emphasized. Recommendations for evidence-based micro and macro level practice changes with the potential to improve the quality of CCP development and regulatory compliance are presented. Suggestions for future research are given.

Risk assessment - The future trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marks, G.A.

1991-01-01

Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

2017-10-01

The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

Prevalence of Chlorpheniramine in Aviation Accident Pilot Fatalities, 1991-1996

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Soper, John

1999-01-01

.... During fatal aircraft accident investigations, postmortem samples collected from the pilots at autopsy are submitted to the Civil Aeromedical Institute for toxicological evaluation, and the findings...

NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

Science.gov (United States)

Ancel, Ersin; Gheorghe, Adrian; Jones, Sharon Monica

2011-01-01

The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

2012-04-01

The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

Exoplanet Biosignatures: Future Directions

OpenAIRE

Walker, Sara I.; Bains, William; Cronin, Leroy; DasSarma, Shiladitya; Danielache, Sebastian; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn; Kacar, Betul; Kiang, Nancy Y.; Lenardic, Adrian; Reinhard, Christopher T.; Moore, William; Schwieterman, Edward W.; Shkolnik, Evgenya L.; Smith, Harrison B.

2017-01-01

Exoplanet science promises a continued rapid accumulation of new observations in the near future, energizing a drive to understand and interpret the forthcoming wealth of data to identify signs of life beyond our Solar System. The large statistics of exoplanet samples, combined with the ambiguity of our understanding of universal properties of life and its signatures, necessitate a quantitative framework for biosignature assessment Here, we introduce a Bayesian framework for guiding future di...

Gap-prepulse inhibition of the startle reflex (GPIAS for tinnitus assessment: current status and future directions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander eGalazyuk

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The progress in the field of tinnitus largely depends on the development of a reliable tinnitus animal model. Recently a new method based on the acoustic startle reflex modification was introduced for tinnitus screening in laboratory animals. This method was enthusiastically adopted and now widely used by many scientists in the field due to its seeming simplicity and a number of advantages over the other methods of tinnitus assessment. Furthermore, this method opened an opportunity for tinnitus assessment in humans as well. Unfortunately multiple modifications of data collection and interpretation implemented in different labs make comparisons across studies very difficult. In addition, recent animal and human studies have challenged the original filling-in interpretation of the paradigm. Here we review the current literature to emphasize on the commonalities and differences in data collection and interpretation across laboratories that are using this method for tinnitus assessment. We also propose future research directions that could be taken in order to establish whether or not this method is warranted as an indicator of the presence of tinnitus.

Standard of care of erectile dysfunction in U.S. Air Force aircrew and active duty not on flying status.

Science.gov (United States)

Nast, Justin B

2014-11-01

In 2011, over 3,000 active duty U.S. Air Force (USAF) members were prescribed a phosphodiesterase inhibitor (PDEI). PDEIs are first-line therapy for treating erectile dysfunction and can have significant side effects that could impact aircrew performance. In total, 200 eligible subject records were randomly sampled from the active duty USAF population of those males filling a prescription for a PDEI in June 2011; 100 of those records were from aviators. The electronic records were reviewed and scored to determine if USAF aeromedical standards for prescribing PDEIs were followed, with a minimum score of 0 for no standards met and a maximum of 3 for all standards met. The average score for both groups was 1, with no significant difference between the group scores. A proper aeromedical disposition was documented in 67% of the aviator records. Although there was no significant difference in standard of care for aviators and nonaviators, the overall documented standard of care was poor. Lack of documentation was the primary reason for the low scores and the low percentage of properly rendered aeromedical dispositions. Proper medical record documentation is important for evaluating quality of care and ensuring compliance with regulations in an Air Force aviator population. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Assessing the impacts of current and future concentrations of surface ozone on crop yield with meta-analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Zhaozhong; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko

Meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess the effects of rising ozone concentrations ([O 3]) on yield and yield components of major food crops: potato, barley, wheat, rice, bean and soybean in 406 experimental observations. Yield loss of the crops under current and future [O 3] was expressed relative to the yield under base [O 3] (≤26 ppb). With potato, current [O 3] (31-50 ppb) reduced the yield by 5.3%, and it reduced the yield of barley, wheat and rice by 8.9%, 9.7% and 17.5%, respectively. In bean and soybean, the yield losses were 19.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Compared with yield loss at current [O 3], future [O 3] (51-75 ppb) drove a further 10% loss in yield of soybean, wheat and rice, and 20% loss in bean. Mass of individual grain, seed, or tuber was often the major cause of the yield loss at current and future [O 3], whereas other yield components also contributed to the yield loss in some cases. No significant difference was found between the responses in crops grown in pots and those in the ground for any yield parameters. The ameliorating effect of elevated [CO 2] was significant in the yields of wheat and potato, and the individual grain weight in wheat exposed to future [O 3]. These findings confirm the rising [O 3] as a threat to food security for the growing global population in this century.

Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: comparative aspects and future perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Dorne, J L C M; Fink-Gremmels, J

2013-08-01

Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

R.M. Forester

2000-01-01

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog

FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

R.M. Forester

2000-03-14

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

Regional landslide hazard assessment in a deep uncertain future

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around future rainfall conditions. We demonstrate how GSA can used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

The accuracy of Johannesburg-based ambulance personnel in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

1 Department of Emergency Medical Care, Faculty of Health Sciences, ... 2 Aeromedical Division, ER24 Emergency Medical Services, Johannesburg, South Africa ..... Facilitating stroke management using modern information technology.

Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias Rosenberg

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and �

Interim Feed The Future Population Based Assessment of Cambodia

Data.gov (United States)

US Agency for International Development — This is the interim population based survey of Feed the Future in Cambodia for 2015. The data is split into survey modules. Modules A through C includes location...

Information resources for assessing health effects from chemical exposure: Challenges, priorities, and future issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seigel, S. [National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD (United States)

1990-12-31

Issues related to developing information resources for assessing the health effects from chemical exposure include the question of how to address the individual political issues relevant to identifying and determining the timeliness, scientific credibility, and completeness of such kinds of information resources. One of the important ways for agencies to share information is through connection tables. This type of software is presently being used to build information products for some DHHS agencies. One of the challenges will be to convince vendors of data of the importance of trying to make data files available to communities that need them. In the future, information processing will be conducted with neural networks, object-oriented database management systems, and fuzzy-set technologies, and meta analysis techniques.

Trade-offs in assessing different energy futures: a regional multi-criteria assessment of the role of carbon dioxide capture and storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shackley, Simon; McLachlan, Carly

2006-01-01

We examine the responses of stakeholders from the public and private sectors to future energy scenarios for the year 2050 for the North West of England. The main focus of the paper is to examine the stakeholders' reactions to the mitigation option of capturing CO 2 from power stations and storing it in suitable off-shore geological reservoirs. Five energy scenarios were developed which involved a range of levels of CO 2 capture and storage (CCS): Fossilwise, Nuclear Renaissance, Renewable Generation and Spreading the Load high and low scenarios. A multi-criteria assessment method (MCA) was used as a way of elucidating stakeholders' views on the desirability or otherwise of each scenario against nine stakeholder-derived criteria. We found that stakeholders were either business-focused or environment/society-focused with respect to weighting of the criteria. Scoring of the scenarios did not follow such a straightforward pattern. Most respondents scored and weighted strategically and tended to express a clear preference for a form of energy generation. The results suggest that there is unlikely to be a wide-ranging consensus amongst energy stakeholders on the desirability of specific future forms of energy generation. On balance, the results support the inclusion of CCS within scenarios of a low-carbon energy system

ASSESSMENTS OF FUTURE ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS AND PROBLEMS OF INCREASED USE, RECYCLING, AND COMBUSTION OF FIBER-REINFORCED, PLASTIC AND METAL COMPOSITE MATERIALS

Science.gov (United States)

The purpose of the study is to identify and define future environmental concerns related to the projected utilization, recycling, and combustion of composite materials. The study is being conducted for the Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS) of the U.S. Env...

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

2013-01-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

Resident Self-Assessment and Learning Goal Development: Evaluation of Resident-Reported Competence and Future Goals.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Su-Ting T; Paterniti, Debora A; Tancredi, Daniel J; Burke, Ann E; Trimm, R Franklin; Guillot, Ann; Guralnick, Susan; Mahan, John D

2015-01-01

To determine incidence of learning goals by competency area and to assess which goals fall into competency areas with lower self-assessment scores. Cross-sectional analysis of existing deidentified American Academy of Pediatrics' PediaLink individualized learning plan data for the academic year 2009-2010. Residents self-assessed competencies in the 6 Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) competency areas and wrote learning goals. Textual responses for goals were mapped to 6 ACGME competency areas, future practice, or personal attributes. Adjusted mean differences and associations were estimated using multiple linear and logistic regression. A total of 2254 residents reported 6078 goals. Residents self-assessed their systems-based practice (51.8) and medical knowledge (53.0) competencies lowest and professionalism (68.9) and interpersonal and communication skills (62.2) highest. Residents were most likely to identify goals involving medical knowledge (70.5%) and patient care (50.5%) and least likely to write goals on systems-based practice (11.0%) and professionalism (6.9%). In logistic regression analysis adjusting for postgraduate year (PGY), gender, and degree type (MD/DO), resident-reported goal area showed no association with the learner's relative self-assessment score for that competency area. In the conditional logistic regression analysis, with each learner serving as his or her own control, senior residents (PGY2/3+s) who rated themselves relatively lower in a competency area were more likely to write a learning goal in that area than were PGY1s. Senior residents appear to develop better skills and/or motivation to explicitly turn self-assessed learning gaps into learning goals, suggesting that individualized learning plans may help improve self-regulated learning during residency. Copyright © 2015 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

David N. Wear

2011-01-01

Accurately forecasting future forest conditions and the implications for ecosystem services depends on understanding land use dynamics. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, we forecast changes in land uses for the coterminous United States in response to three scenarios. Our land use models forecast urbanization in response to the...

Assessing environmental impacts of offshore wind farms: lessons learned and recommendations for the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Helen; Brookes, Kate L; Thompson, Paul M

2014-01-01

Offshore wind power provides a valuable source of renewable energy that can help reduce carbon emissions. Technological advances are allowing higher capacity turbines to be installed and in deeper water, but there is still much that is unknown about the effects on the environment. Here we describe the lessons learned based on the recent literature and our experience with assessing impacts of offshore wind developments on marine mammals and seabirds, and make recommendations for future monitoring and assessment as interest in offshore wind energy grows around the world. The four key lessons learned that we discuss are: 1) Identifying the area over which biological effects may occur to inform baseline data collection and determining the connectivity between key populations and proposed wind energy sites, 2) The need to put impacts into a population level context to determine whether they are biologically significant, 3) Measuring responses to wind farm construction and operation to determine disturbance effects and avoidance responses, and 4) Learn from other industries to inform risk assessments and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. As the number and size of offshore wind developments increases, there will be a growing need to consider the population level consequences and cumulative impacts of these activities on marine species. Strategically targeted data collection and modeling aimed at answering questions for the consenting process will also allow regulators to make decisions based on the best available information, and achieve a balance between climate change targets and environmental legislation.

The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauer, Christian; Hofer, Johannes; Althaus, Hans-Jörg; Del Duce, Andrea; Simons, Andrew

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We perform Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of current and future passenger vehicles. • We include gasoline, diesel and natural gas as well as battery and fuel cell cars. • An integrated vehicle simulation framework guarantees consistency. • Only electric cars with “clean” electricity and H_2 allow for pollution mitigation. • Complete LCA is mandatory for environmental evaluation of vehicle technologies. - Abstract: This paper contains an evaluation of the environmental performance of a comprehensive set of current and future mid-size passenger vehicles. We present a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) based on a novel integrated vehicle simulation framework, which allows for consistency in vehicle parameter settings and consideration of future technological progress. Conventional and hybrid gasoline, diesel and natural gas cars as well as battery and fuel cell electric vehicles (BEV and FCV) are analyzed, taking into account electricity and hydrogen production chains from fossil, nuclear and renewable energy resources. Our results show that a substantial mitigation of climate change can be obtained with electric passenger vehicles, provided that non-fossil energy resources are used for electricity and hydrogen production. However, in terms of other environmental burdens such as acidification, particulate matter formation, and toxicity, BEV may in some cases and FCV are likely to perform worse than modern fossil fueled cars as a consequence of emissions along vehicle and fuel production chains. Therefore, the electrification of road transportation should be accompanied by an integration of life cycle management in vehicle manufacturing chains as well as energy and transport policies in order to counter potential environmental drawbacks.

Assessing future economic impacts of acidic deposition on the recreational fishery of eastern Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

A study was carried out to assess the socio-economic impacts and net economic value effects related to potential reduction in acidic deposition on the sports fishery of eastern Canada. Impacts and net economic effects that would have occurred from 1950 to 1985 if emission/deposition controls were in place are measured. Impacts and net economic effects that will occur from 1986 to 2021 if controls are put in place in the future are also measured. The study incorporated the latest data describing the relationship of acidic deposition to lake pH levels and ultimate impact on fish survival, and applies a spatial analysis system to model changes in sport fish availability with respect to pH changes and fish survival responses. It was found that if emission controls were put in place beginning in 1950 the Canadian economy would have accrued $4.3 billion in net economic value from 1950 to 1985 inclusive. The 1986 value of the historical stream of losses that occurred because controls were not put in place is $24 billion assuming a 10% rate of return. If controls were put in place in the future, net economic value to Canada due to increased angler activity would be $4.2 billion for the period 1986-2021. The value in 1986 would be $925 million. 9 figs., 34 tabs

A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

1998-01-01

Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

17 CFR 1.14 - Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission merchants.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... regarding sources of funding, together with a narrative discussion by management of the liquidity of the... to any futures commission merchant which holds funds or property of or for futures customers of less...

Renewable Electricity Futures Study Executive Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandor, Debra [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schneider, Thomas [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2012-12-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) provides an analysis of the grid integration opportunities, challenges, and implications of high levels of renewable electricity generation for the U.S. electric system. The study is not a market or policy assessment. Rather, RE Futures examines renewable energy resources and many technical issues related to the operability of the U.S. electricity grid, and provides initial answers to important questions about the integration of high penetrations of renewable electricity technologies from a national perspective. RE Futures results indicate that a future U.S. electricity system that is largely powered by renewable sources is possible and that further work is warranted to investigate this clean generation pathway.

Evaluation of a Gentex (registered trademark) ORO-NASAL Oxygen Mask for Integration with the Aqualung (registered trademark) Personal Helicopter Oxygen Delivery System (PHODS)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Roller, Richard A; Curry, Ian P

2008-01-01

.... The United States Army Aeromedical Research Laboratory (USAARL) was tasked by the Product Manager Air Warrior to evaluate an oxygen mask for use with the Personal Helicopter Oxygen Delivery System (PHODS...

Back to the future : Nostalgia increases optimism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cheung, W.-Y.; Wildschut, T.; Sedikides, C.; Hepper, E.G.; Arndt, J.; Vingerhoets, A.J.J.M.

2013-01-01

This research examined the proposition that nostalgia is not simply a past-oriented emotion, but its scope extends into the future, and, in particular, a positive future. We adopted a convergent validation approach, using multiple methods to assess the relation between nostalgia and optimism. Study

Physics at Future Colliders

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John R.

1999-01-01

After a brief review of the Big Issues in particle physics, we discuss the contributions to resolving that could be made by various planned and proposed future colliders. These include future runs of LEP and the Fermilab Tevatron collider, B factories, RHIC, the LHC, a linear electron-positron collider, an electron-proton collider in the LEP/LHC tunnel, a muon collider and a future larger hadron collider (FLHC). The Higgs boson and supersymmetry are used as benchmarks for assessing their capabilities. The LHC has great capacities for precision measurements as well as exploration, but also shortcomings where the complementary strengths of a linear electron-positron collider would be invaluable. It is not too soon to study seriously possible subsequent colliders.

Modeling and assessment of future IGCC plant concepts with CO{sub 2} capture; Simulation und Bewertung zukuenftiger IGCC-Kraftwerkskonzepte mit CO{sub 2}-Abtrennung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kunze, Christian A.

2012-07-13

The thesis focuses on the assessment of efficiency potential of future IGCC plants with CO{sub 2} capture. Starting point is a comprehensive analysis (thermodynamic, economic and exergy) of a state of the art IGCC. Additionally, five future IGCC concepts are proposed and evaluated for their efficiency potential in the mid- and long-term. The concepts showed significantly higher efficiencies up to approximately 60% and enable an almost CO{sub 2}-free operation.

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. D'Andrea

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

Assessment of the Future Health Burden Attributable to Undernutrition under the Latest Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

Science.gov (United States)

Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

2014-05-01

There are growing concerns that future food security will be negatively affected by various factors, such as changes in socioeconomic and climate conditions. The health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition is among the most severe problems related to food crisis in the world. This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. We used three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) as future population and gross domestic products (GDP), three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and 12 Global Circulation Models (12 GCMs) to estimate climate conditions. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. A logarithmic relationship was proposed for the regression model. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model (M-GAEZ), and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 23 ~ 60% in 2030 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. DAtU decreases further by 2050 for SSP1 and SSP2 scenario, whereas it slightly increases for SSP3. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. ii) the impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. The impact of changes in socioeconomic conditions on the health burden is greater in the regions where current health burden is high. iii) parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on

Future buildings Forum-2025: Toward a methodology for future buildings research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Briggs, R.S.

1990-10-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore methods that could be used in studying buildings of the future. The methodology that the forum will develop will have a number of likely applications, among them: the development of research agendas for new building energy technologies; the development of information and analytical capabilities usable by other IEA annexes to address their technology assessment needs; and the generation of information that can serve as input to global energy models designed to inform energy policy decisions. This paper is divided into two major sections. The first is an overview of existing methods of futures research. Terms and concepts are explained, providing the basis for the second section. The second section proposes a framework and general methodology for studying future buildings. This preliminary, or strawman, methodology is intended to provoke early thinking and discussions on how the research should be approached. 24 refs., 8 figs.

Assessment of Aeromedical Evacuation Transport Patient Outcomes With and Without Cabin Altitude Restriction

Science.gov (United States)

2017-08-24

adverse events occurred in cardiac patients; most of the events required supplemental oxygen due to the development of chest pain . The adverse clinical...5.48, p = 0.02), but only 3 were clinically relevant—1 chest pain (CAR) and 3 desaturations (non-CAR). Appendix C contains additional PMQR...Supplemental Patient Diagnosis Information Diagnoses at Discharge (outcomes) CAR Non-CAR Head & Neck (including cervical spine) • Fatal head

Beyond the Dirty Dozen: A Proposed Methodology for Assessing Future Bioweapon Threats.

Science.gov (United States)

Cieslak, Theodore J; Kortepeter, Mark G; Wojtyk, Ronald J; Jansen, Hugo-Jan; Reyes, Ricardo A; Smith, James O

2018-01-01

Defense policy planners and countermeasure developers are often faced with vexing problems involving the prioritization of resources and efforts. This is especially true in the area of Biodefense, where each new emerging infectious disease outbreak brings with it questions regarding the causative agent's potential for weaponization. Recent experience with West Nile Virus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Monkeypox, and H1N1 Influenza highlights this problem. Appropriately, in each of these cases, the possibility of bioterrorism was raised, although each outbreak ultimately proved to have a natural origin. In fact, determining whether an outbreak has an unnatural origin can be quite difficult. Thus, the questions remain: could the causative agents of these and other emerging infectious disease outbreaks pose a future weaponization threat? And how great is that threat? Should precious resources be diverted from other defense efforts in order to prepare for possible hostile employment of novel diseases by belligerents? Answering such critical questions requires some form of systematic threat assessment. Through extensive collaborative work conducted within NATO's Biomedical Advisory Council, we developed a scoring matrix for evaluating the weaponization potential of the causative agents of such diseases and attempted to validate our matrix by examining the reproducibility of data using known threat agents. Our matrix included 12 attributes of a potential weapon and was provided, along with detailed scoring instructions, to 12 groups of biodefense experts in 6 NATO nations. Study participants were asked to score each of these 12 attributes on a scale of 0-3: Infectivity, Infection-to-Disease Ratio (Reliability), Predictability (& Incubation Period), Morbidity & Mortality (Virulence), Ease of Large-Scale Production & Storage, Aerosol Stability, Atmospheric Stability, Ease of Dispersal, Communicability, Prophylactic Countermeasure Availability, Therapeutic

Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

Science.gov (United States)

Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

2018-02-01

Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1973.

Science.gov (United States)

1974-03-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1973) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a quick reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities.

The crysophere as a resource and hazard - Integrated framework for the assessment of future water resource vulnerability and glacial hazard risk assessment in the Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Simon; Awasthi, Kirtiman; Ballesteros, Juan Antonio; Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Kahn, Mustafa; Linsbauer, Andreas; Rohrer, Mario; Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Salzmann, Nadine; Schauwecker, Simone; Stoffel, Markus

2014-05-01

High mountain environments are particularly susceptible to changes in atmospheric temperature and precipitation patterns, owing to the sensitivity of cryospheric components to melting conditions, and the importance of rainfall and river runoff for sustaining crops and livelihoods. The Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (population ca. 6 mil.) is the initial focus of a joint program between the governments of India and Switzerland aiming to build scientific capacity to understand the threat, and plan for adaptation to climate change in the Himalaya. Here we focus on the cryosphere, and provide an overview of the integrated framework we will follow to assess future water resource vulnerability from changes in runoff, and assess future disaster risk from mass movement and flood hazards. At this early stage of our project, we aim to identify key methodological steps, data requirements, and related challenges. The initial implementation of our framework will be centered on the Kullu district. Core and integrative components of both the traditional climate vulnerability framework (eg., IPCC AR4), and the vulnerability and risk concepts of the disaster risk management community (eg., IPCC SREX 2012) include the assessment of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity to water vulnerability in the Kullu district requires the quantification of current and future water resource usage at the block or community level, using metrics such as total irrigated land area, total electricity usage, population density and birth rates. Within the disaster risk framework, sensitivity to mass movement and flood hazards will be determined based on factors such as population density and demographics (notably age and gender), strength of building materials etc. Projected temperature and precipitation data from regional climate model output will be used to model changes in melt water runoff and streamflow, determining the exposure of communities and natural systems to future

Biocatalyzed processes for production of commodity chemicals: Assessment of future research advances for N-butanol production

Science.gov (United States)

Ingham, J. D.

1984-01-01

This report is a summary of assessments by Chem Systems Inc. and a further evaluation of the impacts of research advances on energy efficiency and the potential for future industrial production of acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) solvents and other products by biocatalyzed processes. Brief discussions of each of the assessments made by CSI, followed by estimates of minimum projected energy consumption and costs for production of solvents by ABE biocatalyzed processes are included. These assessments and further advances discussed in this report show that substantial decreases in energy consumption and costs are possible on the basis of specific research advances; therefore, it appears that a biocatalyzed process for ABE can be developed that will be competitive with conventional petrochemical processes for production of n-butanol and acetone. (In this work, the ABE process was selected and utilized only as an example for methodology development; other possible bioprocesses for production of commodity chemicals are not intended to be excluded.) It has been estimated that process energy consumption can be decreased by 50%, with a corresponding cost reduction of 15-30% (in comparison with a conventional petrochemical process) by increasing microorganism tolerance to n-butanol and efficient recovery of product solvents from the vapor phase.

Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-08-01

OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

Current status and future prospects for the assessment of marine and coastal ecosystem services: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Drakou, Evangelia G; Gurney, Leigh; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Charef, Aymen; Egoh, Benis

2013-01-01

Research on ecosystem services has grown exponentially during the last decade. Most of the studies have focused on assessing and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services highlighting a knowledge gap on marine and coastal ecosystem services (MCES) and an urgent need to assess them. We reviewed and summarized existing scientific literature related to MCES with the aim of extracting and classifying indicators used to assess and map them. We found 145 papers that specifically assessed marine and coastal ecosystem services from which we extracted 476 indicators. Food provision, in particular fisheries, was the most extensively analyzed MCES while water purification and coastal protection were the most frequently studied regulating and maintenance services. Also recreation and tourism under the cultural services was relatively well assessed. We highlight knowledge gaps regarding the availability of indicators that measure the capacity, flow or benefit derived from each ecosystem service. The majority of the case studies was found in mangroves and coastal wetlands and was mainly concentrated in Europe and North America. Our systematic review highlighted the need of an improved ecosystem service classification for marine and coastal systems, which is herein proposed with definitions and links to previous classifications. This review summarizes the state of available information related to ecosystem services associated with marine and coastal ecosystems. The cataloging of MCES indicators and the integrated classification of MCES provided in this paper establish a background that can facilitate the planning and integration of future assessments. The final goal is to establish a consistent structure and populate it with information able to support the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies.

The Past and the Future of Constructive Technology Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schot, Johan; Rip, Arie

1997-01-01

Constructive technology assessment (CTA) is a member of the family of technology assessment approaches. developed in particular in the Netherlands and Denmark. CTA shifts the focus away from assessing impacts of new technologies to broadening design, development, and implementation processes.

Deployable Oxygen System (DOS)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Robertson, Charles

2001-01-01

...) is designated lead command for Aeromedical Evacuation (AE). As lead command, AMC provides evacuation of sick/injured patients, in peacetime and contingency operations, under the supervision of qualified medical crewmembers via fixed wing aircraft...

Conclusion: challenges for the future.

Science.gov (United States)

North, D W

1993-12-01

The title "Challenges for the Future" implies the challenge to summarize a very complex meeting. Of necessity, I will present a personal impression. My interest is in risk assessment, which I define as a process for summarizing science in support of decision making. Risk assessment is sometimes regarded as arcane numerology, a rigid process of computing risk numbers in which much available science is unused. I am a strong advocate for the broader definition of risk assessment. It is encouraging to learn how much science is becoming available for use in risk assessment for gasoline, its components, and alternative fuels.

Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-11-01

Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity generation in the United States. Cumulative installed capacity was more than 74,000 megawatts (MW) at year-end 2015 and wind power supplied 4.7% of total 2015 U.S. electricity generation. Despite the growth of the wind power industry, the distributed wind market has remained limited. Cumulative installations of distributed wind through 2015 totaled 934 MW. This first-of-a-kind exploratory analysis characterizes the future opportunity for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities. This work focuses only on the grid-connected, behind-the-meter subset of the broader distributed wind market. We estimate this segment to be approximately half of the 934 MW of total installed distributed wind capacity at year-end 2015. Potential from other distributed wind market segments including systems installed in front of the meter (e.g., community wind) and in remote, off-grid locations is not assessed in this analysis and therefore, would be additive to results presented here. These other distributed wind market segments are not considered in this initial effort because of their relatively unique economic and market attributes.

SSRI effects on pyschomotor performance: assessment of citalopram and escitalopram on normal subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Michel A; Gray, Gary W; Love, Ryan J; Lange, Marvin

2007-07-01

Standard aeromedical doctrine dictates that aircrew receiving treatment for depression are grounded during treatment and follow-up observation, generally amounting to at least 1 yr. The Canadian Forces has initiated a program to return selected aircrew being treated for depression to restricted flying duties once stabilized on an approved antidepressant with resolution of depression. The currently approved medications are sertraline (a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor) and bupropion (noradrenaline and dopamine reuptake inhibitor). This study was undertaken to determine whether or not citalopram or escitalopram affect psychomotor performance. In a double-blind crossover protocol with counter-balanced treatment order, 24 normal volunteer subjects (14 men and 10 women) were assessed for psychomotor performance during placebo, citalopram (40 mg), and escitalopram (20 mg) treatment. Each treatment arm lasted 2 wk, involving a daily morning ingestion of one capsule. There was a 1-wk washout period between medication courses. Subjects completed a drug side-effect questionnaire and were tested on three psychomotor test batteries once per week. Neither citalopram nor escitalopram affected serial reaction time, logical reasoning, serial subtraction, multitask, or MacWorth clock task performance. While we found some of the expected side effects due to citalopram and escitalopram, there was no impact on psychomotor performance. These findings support the possibility of using citalopram and escitalopram for returning aircrew to restricted flight duties (non-tactical flying) under close observation as a maintenance treatment after full resolution of depression.

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

The quantification of environmental indicators for sustainability assessment of future electricity supply options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simons, A.; Bauer, Ch.; Heck, T.

2011-02-01

Within the project NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability) a range of criteria and indicators were defined according to the widely recognised 'three pillar' interpretation of sustainable development in order to assess future electricity generating technologies including their associated fuel cycles. The basic characteristics of the 26 technologies were defined as being appropriate in 2050 according to 'realistic/optimistic' development scenarios. The potential environmental impacts of each technology were assessed by initially determining the various criteria necessary to describe the range of significant impact areas. These criteria were then expressed and measured by one or more quantifiable indicators which were calculated using Life Cycle Inventories established earlier in the project. This report contributed to Research Stream RS2b of the project by quantifying and comparing the results of these indicators for each of the four countries used in the assessment: France, Germany, Switzerland and Italy. The environmental assessment showed that the nuclear technologies cause relatively very low impacts according to most of the indicators. The Generation IV, European Fast Reactor, has significant advantages over the European Pressurised Reactor but the availabilities of the two reactors will be quite different. Whereas the first examples of the EPR are already under construction, the design finalisation of the EFR is not yet complete meaning that the first plant is not expected to be constructed before 2040. An overarching and clear distinction between the fossil fueled technologies was less possible and the application of carbon capture and storage, whilst showing large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, was shown to be counteracted in a number of other indicators. The integration of solid fuel gasification prior to combustion also showed both benefits and disadvantages. For most indicators, the natural gas combined cycle options

Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2010-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

Assessing future trends in indoor air quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

van de Wiel, H.J.; Lebret, E.; van der Lingen, W.K.; Eerens, H.C.; Vaas, L.H.; Leupen, M.J.

1990-01-01

Several national and international health organizations have derived concentration levels below which adverse effects on men are not expected or levels below which the excess risk for individuals is less than a specified value. For every priority pollutant indoor concentrations below this limit are considered healthy. The percentage of Dutch homes exceeding such a limit is taken as a measure of indoor air quality for that component. The present and future indoor air quality of the Dutch housing stock is described for fourteen air pollutants. The highest percentages are scored by radon, environmental tobacco smoke, nitrogen dioxide from unvented combustion, and the potential presence of housedust mite and mould allergen in damp houses. Although the trend for all priority pollutants is downward the most serious ones remain high in the coming decades if no additional measures will be instituted

A novel method for the determination of sildenafil (Viagra(R)) and its metabolite (UK-103,320) in postmortem specimens using LC/MS/MS and LC/MS/MS/MS : final report.

Science.gov (United States)

2000-05-01

During the investigation of aviation accidents, postmortem samples from victims are submitted to the FAAs Civil Aeromedical Institute for drug analysis. Because new drugs are continually being released to the market, it is our laboratorys respo...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 2000.

Science.gov (United States)

2001-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-2000), : CARI Reports (1961-1963), and Civil Aeromedical Institute Reports is presented for those : engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. The index l...

A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship of Distance and Mode of Transportation on Length of Stay at Brooke Army Medical Center

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hagen, John

1997-01-01

.... Transportation Command's (TRANSCOM) aeromedical evacuation system, to determine their influence on length of hospital stay at Brooke Army Medical Center in FY 1996 in order to better understand the irnpact these patients have on utilization management...

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

2016-12-01

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

Current Status and Future Prospects for the Assessment of Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Services: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Drakou, Evangelia G.; Gurney, Leigh; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Charef, Aymen; Egoh, Benis

2013-01-01

Background Research on ecosystem services has grown exponentially during the last decade. Most of the studies have focused on assessing and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services highlighting a knowledge gap on marine and coastal ecosystem services (MCES) and an urgent need to assess them. Methodology/Principal Findings We reviewed and summarized existing scientific literature related to MCES with the aim of extracting and classifying indicators used to assess and map them. We found 145 papers that specifically assessed marine and coastal ecosystem services from which we extracted 476 indicators. Food provision, in particular fisheries, was the most extensively analyzed MCES while water purification and coastal protection were the most frequently studied regulating and maintenance services. Also recreation and tourism under the cultural services was relatively well assessed. We highlight knowledge gaps regarding the availability of indicators that measure the capacity, flow or benefit derived from each ecosystem service. The majority of the case studies was found in mangroves and coastal wetlands and was mainly concentrated in Europe and North America. Our systematic review highlighted the need of an improved ecosystem service classification for marine and coastal systems, which is herein proposed with definitions and links to previous classifications. Conclusions/Significance This review summarizes the state of available information related to ecosystem services associated with marine and coastal ecosystems. The cataloging of MCES indicators and the integrated classification of MCES provided in this paper establish a background that can facilitate the planning and integration of future assessments. The final goal is to establish a consistent structure and populate it with information able to support the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies. PMID:23844080

Aviation Safety Concerns for the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Brian E.; Roelen, Alfred L. C.; den Hertog, Rudi

2016-01-01

The Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) is a multidisciplinary international group of aviation professionals that was established to identify possible future aviation safety hazards. The principle was adopted that future hazards are undesirable consequences of changes, and a primary activity of FAST became identification and prioritization of possible future changes affecting aviation. Since 2004, FAST has been maintaining a catalogue of "Areas of Change" (AoC) that could potentially influence aviation safety. The horizon for such changes is between 5 to 20 years. In this context, changes must be understood as broadly as possible. An AoC is a description of the change, not an identification of the hazards that result from the change. An ex-post analysis of the AoCs identified in 2004 demonstrates that changes catalogued many years previous were directly implicated in the majority of fatal aviation accidents over the past ten years. This paper presents an overview of the current content of the AoC catalogue and a subsequent discussion of aviation safety concerns related to these possible changes. Interactions among these future changes may weaken critical functions that must be maintained to ensure safe operations. Safety assessments that do not appreciate or reflect the consequences of significant interaction complexity will not be fully informative and can lead to inappropriate trade-offs and increases in other risks. The FAST strongly encourages a system-wide approach to safety risk assessment across the global aviation system, not just within the domain for which future technologies or operational concepts are being considered. The FAST advocates the use of the "Areas of Change" concept, considering that several possible future phenomena may interact with a technology or operational concept under study producing unanticipated hazards.

Neurological assessment of the fitness of young people for learning their future profession

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Polakowska, B

1981-01-01

2195 pupils finishing the Grammar School were examined neurologically in view of their future professions. Contraindications were determined related to the type of the future work. The contraindications were found in 34.7% of the young people. Many of them were disqualified from professional training in exposure to neurotoxic substances and physical hazards. The limitations related to future work were referred to those exhibiting symptoms of organic nervous system diseases, considerably intensified nervous irritability, headache and those in whom certain of those symptoms coexisted.

Planning for sustainable tourism in southern Pulau Banggi: an assessment of biophysical conditions and their implications for future tourism development.

Science.gov (United States)

Teh, Lydia; Cabanban, Annadel S

2007-12-01

A priori assessments of a site's biophysical and socio-economic capacity for accommodating tourism are less common than tourism impact studies. A priori evaluations can provide a contextual understanding of ecological, economic and socio-cultural forces, which shape the prospects for sustainable tourism development at the host destination, and can avert adverse impacts of tourism. We conduct an a priori assessment of the biophysical environment of Pulau Banggi, in the Malaysian state of Sabah for sustainable tourism development. We characterise baseline conditions of the island's marine biodiversity, seasonality, and infrastructure. We then evaluate how existing biophysical conditions will influence options for sustainable tourism development. In particular, we suggest conditions, if there are any, which constitute a limit to future tourism development in terms of compatibility for recreation and resilience to visitor impacts. We find that the biggest constraint is the lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Blast fishing, although occurring less than once per hour, can potentially destroy the major attraction for tourists. We conclude that while Pulau Banggi possesses natural qualities that are attractive for ecotourism, financial and institutional support must be made available to provide facilities and services that will enable local participation in environmental protection and enhance prospects for future sustainable tourism.

Applying comprehensive environmental assessment to research planning for multiwalled carbon nanotubes: Refinements to inform future stakeholder engagement.

Science.gov (United States)

Powers, Christina M; Grieger, Khara; Meacham, Connie A; Gooding, Meredith Lassiter; Gift, Jeffrey S; Lehmann, Geniece M; Hendren, Christine O; Davis, J Michael; Burgoon, Lyle

2016-01-01

Risk assessments and risk management efforts to protect human health and the environment can benefit from early, coordinated research planning by researchers, risk assessors, and risk managers. However, approaches for engaging these and other stakeholders in research planning have not received much attention in the environmental scientific literature. The Comprehensive Environmental Assessment (CEA) approach under development by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is a means to manage complex information and input from diverse stakeholder perspectives on research planning that will ultimately support environmental and human health decision making. The objectives of this article are to 1) describe the outcomes of applying lessons learned from previous CEA applications to planning research on engineered nanomaterial, multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and 2) discuss new insights and refinements for future efforts to engage stakeholders in research planning for risk assessment and risk management of environmental issues. Although framed in terms of MWCNTs, this discussion is intended to enhance research planning to support assessments for other environmental issues as well. Key insights for research planning include the potential benefits of 1) ensuring that participants have research, risk assessment, and risk management expertise in addition to diverse disciplinary backgrounds; 2) including an early scoping step before rounds of formal ratings; 3) using a familiar numeric scale (e.g., US dollars) versus ordinal rating scales of "importance"; 4) applying virtual communication tools to supplement face-to-face interaction between participants; and 5) refining criteria to guide development of specific, actionable research questions. © 2015 SETAC.

Aging and Cardiometabolic Risk in European HEMS Pilots: An Assessment of Occupational Old-Age Limits as a Regulatory Risk Management Strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Hans; Nowak, Dennis; Herbig, Britta

2017-12-11

Old-age limits are imposed in some occupations in an effort to ensure public safety. In aviation, the "Age 60 Rule" limits permissible flight operations conducted by pilots aged 60 and over. Using a retrospective cohort design, we assessed this rule's validity by comparing age-related change rates of cardiometabolic incapacitation risk markers in European helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) pilots near age 60 with those in younger pilots. Specifically, individual clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiogram (ECG)-based risk markers and an overall cardiovascular event risk score were determined from aeromedical examination records of 66 German, Austrian, Polish, and Czech HEMS pilots (average follow-up 8.52 years). Risk marker change rates were assessed using linear mixed models and generalized additive models. Body mass index increases over time were slower in pilots near age 60 compared to younger pilots, and fasting glucose levels increased only in the latter. Whereas the lipid profile remained unchanged in the latter, it improved in the former. An ECG-based arrhythmia risk marker increased in younger pilots, which persisted in the older pilots. Six-month risk of a fatal cardiovascular event (in or out of cockpit) was estimated between 0% and 0.3%. Between 41% and 95% of risk marker variability was due to unexplained time-stable between-person differences. To conclude, the cardiometabolic risk marker profile of HEMS pilots appears to improve over time in pilots near age 60, compared to younger pilots. Given large stable interindividual differences, we recommend individualized risk assessment of HEMS pilots near age 60 instead of general grounding. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Index to FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine Reports : 1961 Through 2006

Science.gov (United States)

2007-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aerospace Medicine Reports (1964-2006) and Civil : Aeromedical Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine and related : activities. The index lists all FAA a...

Index to FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine reports : 1961 through 2002.

Science.gov (United States)

2003-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aerospace Medicine Reports (1964-2002) : and Civil Aeromedical Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented for those engaged in aviation : medicine and related activities. The index lists all FAA A...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1998.

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1998) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. The index lists all FAA aviation medicine reports published from ...

Index to FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine reports : 1961 through 2004.

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aerospace Medicine Reports (1964-2004) and : Civil Aeromedical Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine and : related activities. The index lists all FAA a...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1995.

Science.gov (United States)

1996-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1995) and Civil Aeromedical Institute Reports is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. The index lists all FAA aviation med...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1999.

Science.gov (United States)

2000-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1999) and : Civil Aeromedical Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine : and related activities. The index lists all FAA av...

Index to FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine reports : 1961 through 2008.

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

An index to Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aerospace Medicine Reports (1964-2008) and Civil : Aeromedical Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented for those engaged in aviation medicine and related : activities. The index lists all FAA a...

Aging assessments: A strategy for today and the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lofaro, R.; Taylor, J.

1993-01-01

Aging assessments have been performed for selected nuclear power plant systems under the NRC's Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) program. These assessments are typically performed by evaluating industry wide data from national databases. The results provide useful information on the typical aging characteristics for the system studied. However, due to the differences in operation and environmental conditions, as well as maintenance practices between plants, the results of the industry wide data analyses may not be representative of specific plant conditions. Therefore, it would be beneficial for utilities to perform their own plant specific aging assessments. This paper discusses an approach that can be used by the utilities to perform an aging assessment of their plant systems. The methodology is based on that used to perform the NPAR system studies at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The reasons for performing a plant specific system level aging assessment are discussed, along with the sources of information that should be used. In addition, a methodology for performing the assessment is presented. Sample charts and tables are included to illustrate the expected products. A discussion is included on what to look for in the available data, how to interpret the findings, and how to implement the results

Future trends in the assessment of hazards from fission product releases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beattie, J. R.

1983-11-15

In comparing and selecting sites for reactors from the point of view of safety, one considers the remote possibility of an accidental release of moderately large amounts of fission products and its effects in relation to the present and future distribution of population in the neighbourhood. At present, until experience is gained of the reliability and safety of reactors, there is a tendency to site them remotely from centres of industry and population, although for economic reasons there will be a need to site large power reactors more closely to such centres in the future. With, among other objectives, the aim of adopting, in the proper course or time, less restrictive siting criteria, improvements are continually made in the intrinsic safety of reactor system and more sophisticated forms of reactor containment are devised, in order to reduce the possibility and scale of any fission product release. Changes and improvements in reactor systems could affect the nature and proportion of an accidental release of fission products if this should occur in the future. It is appropriate to consider what such a release and its radiobiological effects might be.

Life cycle assessment of renewables: present issues, future outlook and implications for the calculation of external costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frankl, P.

2002-01-01

In principle, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is certainly appropriate for estimating external costs of renewables, since major environmental impacts of the latter are generated in phases of the life cycle other than use. In practice however, several issues still remain. They are related to the availability and quality of Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) data, to the frit technological development of renewable energy technologies (RET), to the existence of many different applications of the latter and to a strong dependency on local conditions. Moreover, a 'static' picture of present technologies is not enough for policy indications. Therefore some kind of dynamic LCA is needed. These LCA issues are reflected in the calculation of external costs. First, the paper discusses these issues on the examples of two main technologies, namely photovoltaic (PV) and wind. Second, it discusses the results of ExternE for these two specific technologies and gives an outlook for the future. Future needs for a better use of LCA as a support tool for the calcination of external costs are identified. Finally, a new research project funded by the European Commission focused on LCI of renewables is briefly introduced and presented. (author)

An Occupational Paradox: Why Do We Love Really Tough Jobs?

Science.gov (United States)

Pierce, Penny F; McNeill, Margaret M; Dukes, Susan F

2018-04-01

Sometimes we come upon unexpected or counterfactual results during research that make us wonder and lead us into unknown territory. Such was the experience of a team of Air Force researchers exploring aeromedical evacuation crew members' experiences of safety and patient care concerns throughout the en route care system. To explore what it is about the aeromedical evacuation crew members' occupation that generates a strong motivation to the mission despite the demands it places on its workers. Eight focus groups were conducted with 69 Air Force aeromedical evacuation and staging facility active duty, Air National Guard, and Air Force Reserve Command nurses and medical technicians between May 2012 and April 2013 at 5 locations in the contiguous and outside the contiguous United States. An unexpected finding was that despite the austere nature of the Air Force en route care mission and the acuity of the patients being transported, nurses and medical technicians were passionate about bringing home the wounded, sick, and injured warriors and were committed to providing the best and safest care possible. It is plausible that a high level of commitment and mission focus contributes significantly to the safety and well-being of those transported. Still, we must wonder why nurses and technicians voluntarily serve in such a demanding and sometimes dangerous occupation, and yet find such a high degree of satisfaction and contentment with this type of job. ©2018 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

The Future of Risk Analysis: Operationalizing Living Vulnerability Assessments from the Cloud to the Street (and Back)

Science.gov (United States)

Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.; Kuhn, C.; Pandey, B.; Schank, C.; Sullivan, J.; Mahtta, R.; Hammet, L.

2016-12-01

21 million people are exposed to flooding every year, and that number is expected to more than double by 2030 due to climate, land use, and demographic change. Cloud to Street, a mission driven science organization, is working to make big and real time data more meaningful to understand both biophysical and social vulnerability to flooding in this changing world. This talk will showcase the science and practice we have built of integrated social and biophysical flood vulnerability assessments based on our work in Uttarakhand, India and Senegal, in conjunction with nonprofits and development banks. We will show developments of our global historical flood database, detected from MODIS and Landsat satellites, used to power machine learning flood exposure models in Google Earth Engine's API. Demonstrating the approach, we will also showcase new approaches in social vulnerability science, from developing data-driven social vulnerability indices in India, to deriving predictive models that explain the social conditions that lead to disproportionate flood damage and fatality in the US. While this talk will draw on examples of completed vulnerability assessments, we will also discuss the possible future for place-based "living" flood vulnerability assessments that are updated each time satellites circle the earth or people add crowd-sourced observations about flood events and social conditions.

Dams, Hydrology and Risk in Future River Management

Science.gov (United States)

Wegner, D. L.

2017-12-01

Across America there are over 80,000 large to medium dams and globally the number is in excess of 800,000. Currently there are over 1,400 dams and diversion structures being planned or under construction globally. In addition to these documented dams there are thousands of small dams populating watersheds. Governments, agencies, native tribes, private owners and regulators all have a common interest in safe dams. Often dam safety is characterized as reducing structural risk while providing for maximum operational flexibility. In the 1970's there were a number of large and small dam failures in the United States. These failures prompted the federal government to issue voluntary dam safety guidelines. These guidelines were based on historic information incorporated into a risk assessment process to analyze, evaluate and manage risk with the goal to improve the quality of and support of dam management and safety decisions. We conclude that historic and new risks need to be integrated into dam management to insure adequate safety and operational flexibility. A recent assessment of the future role of dams in the United States premises that future costs such as maintenance or removal beyond the economic design life have not been factored into the long-term operations or relicensing of dams. The converging risks associated with aging water storage infrastructure, multiple dams within watersheds and uncertainty in demands policy revisions and an updated strategic approach to dam safety. Decisions regarding the future of dams in the United States may, in turn, influence regional water planning and management. Leaders in Congress and in the states need to implement a comprehensive national water assessment and a formal analysis of the role dams play in our water future. A research and national policy agenda is proposed to assess future impacts and the design, operation, and management of watersheds and dams.

Self-Assessment in Librarianship: Current Practices and Future Possibilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ania Dymarz

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The authors of this qualitative study set out to investigate self-assessment practices within the library profession. The researchers conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of nine librarians coming from a range of library settings and possessing a diversity of library experience. Interviews were then transcribed and coded in NVIVO to identify emergent themes. This paper details some of the results of that study, highlighting motivations, limitations, and strategies with regard to self-assessment. The findings present a summary of a range of approaches to the practice of assessment as reported by the interviewees. One area of possible growth for our profession, as highlighted by the findings, is in the development of peer networks as a support for the individual practice of self-assessment. While the results of this small case study cannot be generalized, the authors hope these preliminary findings can open up the conversation around self-assessment both for individual librarians and for those librarians and managers working to shape their workplace culture.

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1996.

Science.gov (United States)

1997-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1996) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. The index lists all FAA aviation medicine reports ...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1993.

Science.gov (United States)

1994-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1993) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It lists all FAA aviation medicine reports publish...

A generic model for evaluation of the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control specialist training programs.

Science.gov (United States)

1982-03-01

The Systems Analysis Research Unit at the Civil Aeromedical Institute (CAMI) has developed a generic model for Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Academy training program evaluation. The model will serve as a basis for integrating the total data b...

Evaluation of functional color vision requirements and current color vision screening tests for air traffic control specialists.

Science.gov (United States)

1990-08-01

An experiment was conducted to evaluate the relation of type and degree of color vision deficiency and aeromedical color vision screening test scores to performance of color-dependent tasks of Air Traffic Control Specialists. The subjects included 37...

Challenges for future space power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandhorst, H.W. Jr.

1989-01-01

The future appears rich in missions that will extend the frontiers of knowledge, human presence in space, and opportunities for profitable commerce. The key to success of these ventures is the availability of plentiful, cost effective electric power and assured, low cost access to space. While forecasts of space power needs are problematic, an assessment of future needs based on terrestrial experience was made. These needs fall into three broad categories-survival, self sufficiency and industrialization. The cost of delivering payloads to orbital locations from low earth orbit (LEO) to Mars was determined and future launch cost reductions projected. From these factors, then, projections of the performance necessary for future solar and nuclear space power options were made. These goals are largely dependent upon orbital location and energy storage needs

The Future of Self-Assessment in Classroom Practice: Reframing Self-Assessment as a Core Competency

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Gavin T. L.; Harris, Lois R.

2014-01-01

Formative assessment policies and self-regulation theories argue that student self-assessment of their own work and processes are useful for raising academic performance and self-regulatory skills. However, research into student self-evaluation raises serious doubts about the quality of self-assessment as an assessment process and identifies…

Algorithms and the Future of Music Education: A Response to Shuler

Science.gov (United States)

Thibeault, Matthew D.

2014-01-01

This article is a response to Shuler's 2001 article predicting the future of music education. The respondent assesses Shuler's predictions, finding that many have come true but critiquing Shuler's overall positive assessment. The respondent then goes on to make one prediction about the future of music education: that algorithms will…

Future of nuclear science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1977-01-01

A report is presented by the Ad Hoc Panel on the Future of Nuclear Science on its assessment of the scientific objectives and unexplored questions of nuclear science and recommendations of the manpower, funding, and facilities required to realize its full potential. Nuclear research and its facilities and budgetary, sociological, and application aspects of this research are considered

Proprioception: where are we now? A commentary on clinical assessment, changes across the life course, functional implications and future interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Suetterlin, Karen Joan; Sayer, Avan Aihie

2014-05-01

Proprioception, the sense of where one is in space, is essential for effective interaction with the environment. A lack of or reduction in proprioceptive acuity has been directly correlated with falls and with reduced functional independence in older people. Proprioceptive losses have also been shown to negatively correlate with functional recovery post stroke and play a significant role in other conditions such as Parkinson's disease. However, despite its central importance to many geriatric syndromes, the clinical assessment of proprioception has remained remarkably static. We look at approaches to the clinical assessment of proprioception, changes in proprioception across the life course, functional implications of proprioception in health and disease and the potential for targeted interventions in the future such as joint taping, and proprioception-specific rehabilitation and footwear.

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1991.

Science.gov (United States)

1992-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1991) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It lists all FAA aviation medicine rep...

Contents of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in the safety evaluation of a repository for spent fuels; Innehaallet i en strategi foer myndighetsbedoemning av framtida maenskligt handlande vid vaerdering av saekerheten for slutfoervar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd., Oakham (United Kingdom)

2001-08-01

The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the

Problem and future of radiation hazard in IVR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chida, Koichi; Maruoka, Shin; Saito, Haruo; Ishibashi, Tadashi; Takai, Yoshihiro

2008-01-01

This paper describes problems of radiation exposure to patients and operators, their dose assessment and future in the radio-protection at IVR (interventional radiology) like percutaneous coronary intervention. Patients who undergo the IVR operation are usually faced to dying risk and thereby the actually still occurring radiation injury is often justified. However, effort must be taken based on measurement and dose assessment of the radiation to reduce the exposure dose in patients, which, authors comment, leads to the decrease of dose also to the operators derived mainly from scattering. Presently in IVR, however, there are scarce methods to directly measure and assess the maximal exposure dose of patient's skin in a real time, and therefore which are tasks remained in future. Practically used is the evaluation of the overall dose by parameters like exposing hours and area dose values (International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP), 2001 and Food and Drug Administration (FDA), 1995), and/or by IVR-reference point method (International Electrotechnical Commission, 2000). The latter is on the defined point 15-cm distant from the isocenter toward X-ray tube focus and the concept is already incorporated in Japan Industrial Standard. Those evaluations are conceivably helpful for future assessment of IVR radiation effects involving carcinogenesis. (R.T.)

Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

2010-01-01

Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

Future Climate Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James Houseworth

2001-01-01

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B

Future Climate Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

James Houseworth

2001-10-12

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical

Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

2012-01-01

The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniels, Jeffrey I.; Chapman, Jenny B.

2012-01-01

The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1978.

Science.gov (United States)

1979-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1978) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA aviat...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1980.

Science.gov (United States)

1981-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1978) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA aviat...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1986.

Science.gov (United States)

1987-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1982) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA aviat...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1971.

Science.gov (United States)

1972-03-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1971) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a quick reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA...

Index to FAA Office of Aviation Medicine reports : 1961 through 1982.

Science.gov (United States)

1983-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1982) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA aviat...

Index to FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine reports : 1961 through 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

An index to Office of Aviation Medicine Reports (1964-1971) and Civil Aeromedical Research Institute Reports (1961-1963) is presented as a quick reference for those engaged in aviation medicine and related activities. It provides a listing of all FAA...

Effect assessment of Future Climate Change on Water Resource and Snow Quality in cold snowy regions in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Taniguchi, Y.; Nakatsugawa, M.; Kudo, K.

2017-12-01

It is predicted that the effects of global warming on everyday life will be clearly seen in cold, snowy regions such as Hokkaido. In relation to climate change, there is the concern that the warmer climate will affect not only water resources, but also local economies, in snowy areas, when air temperature increases and snowfall decreases become more marked in the future. Communities whose economies are greatly dependent on snow as a tourism resource, such as for winter sports and snow events, will lose large numbers of visitors because of the shortened winter season. This study was done as a basic study to provide basic ideas for planning adaptation strategies against climate change based on the local characteristics of a cold, snowy region. By taking dam catchment basins in Hokkaido as the subject areas and by using the climate change prediction data that correspond to IPCCAR5, the local-level influence of future climate change on snowfall and snow quality in relation to water resources and winter sports was quantitatively assessed. The water budget was examined for a dam catchment basin in Hokkaido under the present climate (September 1984 to August 2004) and under the future climate (September 2080 to August 2100) by using rainfall, snowfall and evapotranspiration estimated by the LoHAS heat and water balance analysis model.The examination found that, under the future climate, the net annual precipitation will decrease by up to 200 mm because of decreases in precipitation and in runoff height that will result from increased evapotranspiration. The predicted decrease in annual hydro potential of snowfall was considered to greatly affect the dam reservoir operation during the snowmelt season. The snow quality analysis by SNOWPACK revealed that the future snow would become granular earlier than it does at present. Most skiers' snow preferences, from best to worst, are light dry snow (i.e., fresh snow), lightly compacted snow, compacted snow and, finally, granular

The Importance of the Study of Cognitive Performance Enhancement for U.S. National Security.

Science.gov (United States)

Malish, Richard G

2017-08-01

The American military is embarking on the 'Third Offset'-a strategy designed to produce seismic shifts in the future of warfare. Central to the approach is the conjoining of humans, technology, and machines to deliver a decisive advantage on the battlefield. Because technology will spread rapidly and globally, tactical overmatch will occur when American operators possess a competitive edge in cognition. Investigation of cognitive enhancing therapeutics is not widely articulated as an adjunct to the Third Offset, yet failure to study promising agents could represent a strategic vulnerability. Because of its legacy of research into therapeutic agents to enhance human-machine interplay, the aerospace medical community represents a front-running candidate to perform this work. Notably, there are strong signals emanating from gambling, academic, and video-gaming enterprises that already-developed stimulants and other agents provide cognitive benefits. These agents should be studied not only for reasons of national security, but also because cognitive enhancement may be a necessary step in the evolution of humankind. To illustrate these points, this article will assert that: 1) the need to preserve and enhance physical and cognitive health will become more and more important over the next century; 2) aeromedical specialists are in a position to take the lead in the endeavor to enhance cognition; 3) signals of enhancement of the type useful to both military and medical efforts exist aplenty in today's society; and 4) the aeromedical community should approach human enhancement research deliberately but carefully.Malish RG. The importance of the study of cognitive performance enhancement for U.S. national security. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(8):773-778.

Future Orientation and School Bullying Among Adolescents in Rural China

OpenAIRE

Shu Ling Gao; Ko Ling Chan

2015-01-01

This study examined the relations among future orientation, school bonding, and school bullying perpetration behaviors. Data were collected from 677 seventh- to ninth-grade adolescents in an area in Southwest China. Specifically, students completed the Future-Orientation Questionnaire, the Psychological Sense of School Membership scale, and the Revised Olweus Bully/Victim Questionnaire to assess their future orientatio...

Futuring for Future Ready Librarians

Science.gov (United States)

Figueroa, Miguel A.

2018-01-01

Futurists and foresight professionals offer several guiding principles for thinking about the future. These principles can help people to think about the future and become more powerful players in shaping the preferred futures they want for themselves and their communities. The principles also fit in well as strategies to support the Future Ready…

Psychological distress and streamlined BreastScreen follow-up assessment versus standard assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sherman, Kerry A; Winch, Caleb J; Borecky, Natacha; Boyages, John

2013-11-04

To establish whether altered protocol characteristics of streamlined StepDown breast assessment clinics heightened or reduced the psychological distress of women in attendance compared with standard assessment. Willingness to attend future screening was also compared between the assessment groups. Observational, prospective study of women attending either a mammogram-only StepDown or a standard breast assessment clinic. Women completed questionnaires on the day of assessment and 1 month later. Women attending StepDown (136 women) or standard assessment clinics (148 women) at a BreastScreen centre between 10 November 2009 and 7 August 2010. Breast cancer worries; positive and negative psychological consequences of assessment (Psychological Consequences Questionnaire); breast cancer-related intrusion and avoidance (Impact of Event Scale); and willingness to attend, and uneasiness about, future screening. At 1-month follow-up, no group differences were evident between those attending standard and StepDown clinics on breast cancer worries (P= 0.44), positive (P= 0.88) and negative (P = 0.65) consequences, intrusion (P = 0.64), and avoidance (P = 0.87). Willingness to return for future mammograms was high, and did not differ between groups (P = 0.16), although higher levels of unease were associated with lessened willingness to rescreen (P = 0.04). There was no evidence that attending streamlined StepDown assessments had different outcomes in terms of distress than attending standard assessment clinics for women with a BreastScreen-detected abnormality. However, unease about attending future screening was generally associated with less willingness to do so in both groups; thus, there is a role for psycho-educational intervention to address these concerns.

Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

Science.gov (United States)

Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

2013-01-01

The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

Environmental Assessment for the Aeromedical Evacuation Formal Training Unit, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-01

pennsylvanica), White Ash (Fraxinus americana), Shingle Oak (Quercus imbricaria), Northern Red Oak (Quercus rubra), Slippery Elm (Ulmus rubra...American Elm (Ulmus americana), Eastern Cottonwood (Populus deltoides), Silver Maple (Acer saccharinum), Sassafras (Sassafras albidum), Post Oak (Quercus

Personal dose monitoring in hospitals: Global assessment, critical applications and future needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Covens, P.; Berus, D.; Buls, N.; Clerinx, P.; Vanhavere, F.

2007-01-01

It is known that medical applications using ionising radiation are wide spread and still increasing. Physicians, technicians, nurses and others constitute the largest group of workers occupationally exposed to man-made sources of radiation. Many hospital workers are consequently subjected to routine monitoring of professional radiation exposures. in the university hospital, UZ Brussel, 600 out of 4000 staff members are daily monitored for external radiation exposures. The most obvious applications of ionising radiation are diagnostic radiology, diagnostic or therapeutic use of radionuclides in nuclear medicine and external radiation therapy or brachytherapy in radiotherapy departments. Other important applications also include various procedures in interventional radiology (IR), in vitro biomedical research and radiopharmaceutical production around cyclotrons. Besides the fact that many of the staff members, involved in these applications, are not measurably exposed, detailed studies were carried out at workplaces where routine dose monitoring encounters difficulties and for some applications where relatively high occupational exposures can be found. most of the studies are concentrated around nuclear medicine applications and IR. They contain assessments of both effective dose and doses at different parts of the body. The results contribute to better characterisation of the different workplaces in a way that critical applications can be identified. Moreover, conclusions point out future needs for practical routine dose monitoring and optimisation of radiation protection. (authors)

Assessment and E-Learning: Current Issues and Future Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Cowie, Neil; Sakui, Keiko

2015-01-01

This paper describes different ways in which digital technology can be used for language learning. It then identifies some key trends connecting assessment and technology in language learning and higher education: the use of automated systems to enhance traditional assessment practices; the use of Web 2.0 tools to facilitate new assessment…

The Role of Incompleteness in Commodity Futures Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takashi eKanamura

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a convenience yield-based pricing for commodity futures, which embeds incompleteness of commodity futures markets in convenience yields. By using the pricing method, we conduct empirical analyses of the prices of WTI crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas futures traded on the NYMEX in order to assess the incompleteness of energy futures markets. We show that the fluctuation from the incompleteness is partly driven by the fluctuation from convenience yields. In addition, it is shown that the incompleteness of natural gas futures market is more highlighted than the incompleteness of WTI crude oil and heating oil futures markets. We apply the implied market price of risk from the NYMEX data to pricing an Asian call option written on WTI crude oil futures. Finally, we try to apply the market incompleteness analysis to the post-crisis periods after 2009.

Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

Remington, Benjamin C.

2017-09-01

Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

Assessing Collaborative Learning: Big Data, Analytics and University Futures

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Peter

2017-01-01

Assessment in higher education has focused on the performance of individual students. This focus has been a practical as well as an epistemic one: methods of assessment are constrained by the technology of the day, and in the past they required the completion by individuals under controlled conditions of set-piece academic exercises. Recent…

SOFRA and RPA: two views of the future of southern timber supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Darius Adams; John Mills; Ralph Alig; Richard. Haynes

2005-01-01

Two recent studies provide alternative views of the current state and future prospects of southern forests and timber supply: the Southern Forest Resource Assessment (SOFRA) and the Fifth Resources Planning Act Timber Assessment (RPA). Using apparently comparable data but different models and methods, the studies portray futures that in some aspects are quite similar...

The Cushing OK Crude Oil Futures Price Pass - Through to New York Harbor Reformulated RBOB Regular Gasoline Futures Price

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chu V. Nguyen

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This study utilizes an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to investigate the nature of crude oil futures price pass-through since 2006. The empirical results reveal a very high but incomplete short-run pass-through rate from the crude oil futures price to the gasoline futures price of 0.849298 with a corresponding negative long-run pass-through rate of -0.2440894. These empirical findings suggest that traders in the U.S. oil and gasoline futures markets overreact to fluctuations in the crude oil futures price as evidenced by subsequent corrections made over the sample period. The result of the bounds test for a long-term relationship between these two futures prices is inconclusive. The empirical findings further suggest that U.S. futures market traders considered futures prices of gasoline three weeks earlier in determining the current trading price while taking only one week to respond completely to the shock in the crude oil futures price.  The empirical findings of this investigation may address the core elements of the price dynamics of the crude oil and gasoline futures markets and advance inquiry into assessment tools that could manage a very complex market challenge, especially for policy makers in countries with transitional economies in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia.

Functional Behavior Assessment in Schools: Current Status and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Cynthia M.; Rodriguez, Billie Jo; Campbell, Amy

2015-01-01

Functional behavior assessment is becoming a commonly used practice in school settings. Accompanying this growth has been an increase in research on functional behavior assessment. We reviewed the extant literature on documenting indirect and direct methods of functional behavior assessment in school settings. To discern best practice guidelines…

Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

2017-12-01

Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

Ozone depletion following future volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Eric Klobas, J.; Wilmouth, David M.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Anderson, James G.; Salawitch, Ross J.

2017-07-01

While explosive volcanic eruptions cause ozone loss in the current atmosphere due to an enhancement in the availability of reactive chlorine following the stratospheric injection of sulfur, future eruptions are expected to increase total column ozone as halogen loading approaches preindustrial levels. The timing of this shift in the impact of major volcanic eruptions on the thickness of the ozone layer is poorly known. Modeling four possible climate futures, we show that scenarios with the smallest increase in greenhouse gas concentrations lead to the greatest risk to ozone from heterogeneous chemical processing following future eruptions. We also show that the presence in the stratosphere of bromine from natural, very short-lived biogenic compounds is critically important for determining whether future eruptions will lead to ozone depletion. If volcanic eruptions inject hydrogen halides into the stratosphere, an effect not considered in current ozone assessments, potentially profound reductions in column ozone would result.

Predicting the future of sports organizations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jugoslav Vojinovic

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The current crisis of sport in Serbia justifies its prediction of real potential future of sport organizations. Sample of respondents (N=277 was divided in two subsamples: 113 professional persons involved in the management of sports clubs ("experimental" sample and 164 individuals ("control" sample. The results of structural analysis showed that experimental sample based its vision on the staff as a determinant of the system, which is providing creativity as a characteristic of the organizational culture of the club. Control subsample of respondents could indicate some characteristic variables to predict the future of clubs, but can't say a clear prediction system based on a long sequence of reasoning. We can conclude that the mentioned two sub-samples are differerent in terms of the ability to orient to predict the future of their clubs on the basis of assessment of the key variables that shape the future scenarios.

The Impact of Transport Time on Outcomes Following Evacuation from Point of Injury

Science.gov (United States)

2017-06-16

reasonable in relation to anticipated benefits and the importance of the knowledge that may reasonably be expected to result. The subject selection is...patients with traumatic injuries require urgent medical attention and expeditious evacuation to improve survival. Aeromedical evacuation platforms such as

Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton Sizo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helge Walentowski

2017-07-01

Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

In search of future earths: assessing the possibility of finding Earth analogues in the later stages of their habitable lifetimes.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Malley-James, Jack T; Greaves, Jane S; Raven, John A; Cockell, Charles S

2015-05-01

Earth will become uninhabitable within 2-3 Gyr as a result of the increasing luminosity of the Sun changing the boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ). Predictions about the future of habitable conditions on Earth include declining species diversity and habitat extent, ocean loss, and changes to geochemical cycles. Testing these predictions is difficult, but the discovery of a planet that is an analogue to future Earth could provide the means to test them. This planet would need to have an Earth-like biosphere history and to be approaching the inner edge of the HZ at present. Here, we assess the possibility of finding such a planet and discuss the benefits of analyzing older Earths. Finding an old-Earth analogue in nearby star systems would be ideal, because this would allow for atmospheric characterization. Hence, as an illustrative example, G stars within 10 pc of the Sun are assessed as potential old-Earth-analog hosts. Six of these represent good potential hosts. For each system, a hypothetical Earth analogue is placed at locations within the continuously habitable zone (CHZ) that would allow enough time for Earth-like biosphere development. Surface temperature evolution over the host star's main sequence lifetime (assessed by using a simple climate model) is used to determine whether the planet would be in the right stage of its late-habitable lifetime to exhibit detectable biosignatures. The best candidate, in terms of the chances of planet formation in the CHZ and of biosignature detection, is 61 Virginis. However, planet formation studies suggest that only a small fraction (0.36%) of G stars in the solar neighborhood could host an old-Earth analogue. If the development of Earth-like biospheres is rare, requiring a sequence of low-probability events to occur, biosphere evolution models suggest they are rarer still, with only thousands being present in the Galaxy as a whole.

Assessing Land Degradation and Desertification Using Vegetation Index Data: Current Frameworks and Future Directions

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Thomas P. Higginbottom

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Land degradation and desertification has been ranked as a major environmental and social issue for the coming decades. Thus, the observation and early detection of degradation is a primary objective for a number of scientific and policy organisations, with remote sensing methods being a candidate choice for the development of monitoring systems. This paper reviews the statistical and ecological frameworks of assessing land degradation and desertification using vegetation index data. The development of multi-temporal analysis as a desertification assessment technique is reviewed, with a focus on how current practice has been shaped by controversy and dispute within the literature. The statistical techniques commonly employed are examined from both a statistical as well as ecological point of view, and recommendations are made for future research directions. The scientific requirements for degradation and desertification monitoring systems identified here are: (I the validation of methodologies in a robust and comparable manner; and (II the detection of degradation at minor intensities and magnitudes. It is also established that the multi-temporal analysis of vegetation index data can provide a sophisticated measure of ecosystem health and variation, and that, over the last 30 years, considerable progress has been made in the respective research.

Heavy-ion fusion: Future promise and future directions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dudziak, D.J.; Saylor, W.W.; Pendergrass, J.H.

1986-01-01

The previous several papers in this heavy-ion fusion special session have described work that has taken place as part of the Heavy-Ion Fusion Systems Assessment (HIFSA) project. Key technical issues in the design and costing of targets, accelerator systems, beam transport, reactor and balance-of-plant, and systems integration have been identified and described. The HIFSA systems model was used to measure the relative value of improvements in physics understanding and technology developments in many different areas. The result of this study has been to, within the limits of our 1986 imagination and creativity, define the ''most attractive'' future heavy-ion fusion (HIF) power plant at some time in the future (beyond the year 2020 in this case). The project has specifically avoided narrowing the focus to a point facility design; thus, the generic systems modeling capability developed in the process allows for a relative comparison among design options. The authors describe what are thought to be achievable breakthroughs and what the relative significance of the breakthroughs will be, although the specific mechanism for achieving some breakthroughs may not be clear at this point

A Future-Based Risk Assessment for the Survivability of Long Range Strike Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2007-03-01

Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) investigated alternative futures to help generate a viable science strategy to address the future aerospace...World American World View ΔTeK World Power Grid Name 1 Global Exponential Dispersed DIGITAL CACOPHONY 2 Global Exponential Concentrated STAR TREK ...The United States has become the “United Kingdom of the Twenty-first Century.” 2.2.3. NASA Study (1997) In the NASA study, the National Research

Neurology cases evaluated by the U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine 2000-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Hesselbrock, Roger; Heaton, John

2014-05-01

Historically, neurologic conditions are a major cause for removing aviators from flying status. Early neuropsychiatry studies included psychiatric conditions along with neurologic disorders. Previously reported data specifically addressing neurologic conditions in aviators are limited. And there is little current neurology-specific data reported. A retrospective review was done on patients with diagnoses evaluated by Neurology at the U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine Aeromedical Consultation Service (ACS) between 2000 and 2012 using ACS records and databases to identify cases. Patient demographics, major diagnoses with associated International Classification of Diseases (9th rev.) codes, and aeromedical disposition recommendations were abstracted into a separate database for analysis. In total, 871 cases were identified. Patients were predominantly male (91%) with average age 34 and were predominantly pilots (69%). The top neurology-related diagnoses found in our series were headaches, head injuries, and radiculopathies. Of the cases evaluated, 570 aviators (65%) were recommended by ACS to return to flying status. Waiver authorities accepted 88% of ACS recommendations. Current patterns in neurologic conditions in the selected population of cases evaluated by the ACS were presented. Of the neurologic diagnoses seen, a novel finding was the prominence of head injuries in our series not seen in previous studies. This may be due to more stringent aeromedical standards with advances in medical practice and underscores that this issue is not just about disability but affects aircrew operational readiness. Most cases of neurologic disease evaluated by the ACS were recommended for return to flying status.

Current assessment and future potential of the international nuclear market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassidy, P.R.

1983-01-01

This is a study of the current and future situation of the international nuclear market. This paper highlights the projections as seen not only by Bechtel Power Corporation, but also by the international nuclear community. It covers in particular the electric power growth projection; the percentage of probable nuclear power generation; operating services for existing nuclear power plants; and the nuclear fuel cycle. (NEA) [fr

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

2018-05-01

The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbara Neumann

Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

Science.gov (United States)

Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

2017-01-01

This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

Assessment of future agricultural conditions in southwestern Africa using fuzzy logic and high-resolution climate model scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weinzierl, Thomas

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have a major impact on the arid savanna regions of southwestern Africa, such as the Okavango Basin. Precipitation is a major constraint for agriculture in countries like Namibia and Botswana and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach uses reanalysis data and climate model output for two scenarios and compares them to the precipitation requirements of the five most important crops grown in the region: maize, pearl millet, sorghum, cassava and cow pea. It also takes into account the dominant soil types, as plant growth is also limited by nutrient-poor soils with unfavorable physical and chemical properties. The two factors are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable zones and identifies areas where farming without irrigation may experience a decline in yields or may even no longer be possible at the end of the 21st century. The results show that pearl millet is the most suitable crop in all scenarios while especially the cultivation of maize, sorghum and cow pea may be affected by a possible reduction of precipitation under the high-emission scenario.

Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

2017-11-01

Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

Human factors measurement for future air traffic control systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Langan-Fox, Janice; Sankey, Michael J; Canty, James M

2009-10-01

This article provides a critical review of research pertaining to the measurement of human factors (HF) issues in current and future air traffic control (ATC). Growing worldwide air traffic demands call for a radical departure from current ATC systems. Future systems will have a fundamental impact on the roles and responsibilities of ATC officers (ATCOs). Valid and reliable methods of assessing HF issues associated with these changes, such as a potential increase (or decrease) in workload, are of utmost importance for advancing theory and for designing systems, procedures, and training. We outline major aviation changes and how these relate to five key HF issues in ATC. Measures are outlined, compared, and evaluated and are followed by guidelines for assessing these issues in the ATC domain. Recommendations for future research are presented. A review of the literature suggests that situational awareness and workload have been widely researched and assessed using a variety of measures, but researchers have neglected the areas of trust, stress, and boredom. We make recommendations for use of particular measures and the construction of new measures. It is predicted that, given the changing role of ATCOs and profound future airspace requirements and configurations, issues of stress, trust, and boredom will become more significant. Researchers should develop and/or refine existing measures of all five key HF issues to assess their impact on ATCO performance. Furthermore, these issues should be considered in a holistic manner. The current article provides an evaluation of research and measures used in HF research on ATC that will aid research and ATC measurement.

Is Clinical Assessment of Addiction Severity of Individuals with Substance Use Disorder, Using the Addiction Severity Index, A Predictor of Future Inpatient Mental Health Hospitalization? A Nine-Year Registry Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Padyab, Mojgan; Armelius, Bengt-Åke; Armelius, Kerstin; Nyström, Siv; Blom, Björn; Grönlund, Ann-Sofie; Lundgren, Lena

2018-04-23

In Sweden, the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) is the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's recommended substance use disorder assessment tool and used routinely for patient intakes. Our study of 213 individuals assessed for substance use disorder with the ASI used nine years of the National Patient Register and examined whether clinical social workers' assessments of addiction severity at baseline were associated with later hospitalizations for mental health disorder (MHD). ASI composite scores and interviewer severity rating were used to measure clients' problems in seven areas (mental health, family and social relationships, employment, alcohol, drug use, health, and legal) at baseline. A stepwise regression method was used to assess the relative importance of ASI composite scores, MHD hospitalization two years prior to baseline, age, and gender for MHD hospitalization seven years post-baseline. Almost two-thirds of the individuals (63%) were hospitalized at least once for MHD in the seven years post-baseline. At the multivariable level, MHD hospitalization prior to baseline was the strongest predictor of future MHD hospitalization, followed by ASI composite scores for drug use, employment, mental health and, last, male gender. A key finding is that higher ASI composite scores for drug use and mental health are predictors of future need for MHD treatment. Future studies will replicate this effort with a national population of individuals with substance use disorder.

A review and assessment of hydrodynamic cavitation as a technology for the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Gogate, Parag R; Pandit, Aniruddha B

2005-01-01

In the present work, the current status of the hydrodynamic cavitation reactors has been reviewed discussing the bubble dynamics analysis, optimum design considerations, design correlations for cavitational intensity (in terms of collapse pressure)/cavitational yield and different successful chemical synthesis applications clearly illustrating the utility of these types of reactors. The theoretical discussion based on the modeling of the bubble dynamics equations aims at understanding the design information related to the dependency of the cavitational intensity on the operating parameters and recommendations have been made for the choice of the optimized conditions of operating parameters. The design information based on the theoretical analysis has also been supported with some experimental illustrations concentrating on the chemical synthesis applications. Assessment of the hydrodynamic cavitation reactors and comparison with the sonochemical reactors has been done by citing the different industrially important reactions (oxidation of toluene, o-xylene, m-xylene, p-xylene, mesitylene, o-nitrotoluene, p-nitrotoluene, m-nitrotoluene, o-chlorotoluene and p-chlorotoulene, and trans-esterification reaction i.e., synthesis of bio-diesel). Some recommendations have also been made for the future work to be carried out as well as the choice of the operating conditions for realizing the dream of industrial scale applications of the cavitational reactors.

A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

Science.gov (United States)

Sutherland, William J.; Alves, José A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

2012-01-01

We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

Future Climate Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cambell, C. G.

2004-01-01

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative

Manned-Unmanned Teaming: Expanding the Envelope of UAS Operational Employment (Reprint)

Science.gov (United States)

2014-11-01

Orders will be expedited if placed through the librarian or other person designated to request documents from DTIC. Change of Address Organizations...within the domain of the aeromedical community. There are many lines of scientifi c inves- tigation among multiple consortia of research entities

FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

Science.gov (United States)

Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

2014-12-01

Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story

Description of future drought indices in Virginia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyunwoo Kang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This article presents projected future drought occurrences in five river basins in Virginia. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models were used to derive input variables of multiple drought indices, such as the Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI, the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI, and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI for both historic and future periods. The results of SSI indicate that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences and that these were caused by increases in evapotranspiration and runoff. However, the results of the MSDI and MPDSI projected a decrease in drought occurrences in future periods due to a greater increase in precipitation in the future. Furthermore, GCM-downscaled products (precipitation and temperature were verified using comparisons with historic observations, and the results of uncertainty analyses suggest that the lower and upper bounds of future drought projections agree with historic conditions.

Assessing the role of coal in the world energy future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hibbard Junior, W.R.

1981-01-01

Ten recent extensive studies of long range energy futures were evaluated and a consensus of findings developed. Progress toward the consensus was determined. In the next 20 years the United States will need all of the coal, nuclear, oil shale and tar sands that public consensus and the legislatures will permit. Concerns include the cost and availability of OPEC oil, energy efficiency, acid rain, and carbon dioxide build-up. (Author) [pt

Reference Structures: Stagnation, Progress, and Future Challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, Jane

1997-01-01

Assesses the current state of reference structures in online public access catalogs (OPACs) in a framework defined by stagnation, progress, and future challenges. Outlines six areas for reference structure development. Twenty figures provide illustrations. (AEF)

Decisional tool to assess current and future process robustness in an antibody purification facility.

Science.gov (United States)

Stonier, Adam; Simaria, Ana Sofia; Smith, Martin; Farid, Suzanne S

2012-07-01

Increases in cell culture titers in existing facilities have prompted efforts to identify strategies that alleviate purification bottlenecks while controlling costs. This article describes the application of a database-driven dynamic simulation tool to identify optimal purification sizing strategies and visualize their robustness to future titer increases. The tool harnessed the benefits of MySQL to capture the process, business, and risk features of multiple purification options and better manage the large datasets required for uncertainty analysis and optimization. The database was linked to a discrete-event simulation engine so as to model the dynamic features of biopharmaceutical manufacture and impact of resource constraints. For a given titer, the tool performed brute force optimization so as to identify optimal purification sizing strategies that minimized the batch material cost while maintaining the schedule. The tool was applied to industrial case studies based on a platform monoclonal antibody purification process in a multisuite clinical scale manufacturing facility. The case studies assessed the robustness of optimal strategies to batch-to-batch titer variability and extended this to assess the long-term fit of the platform process as titers increase from 1 to 10 g/L, given a range of equipment sizes available to enable scale intensification efforts. Novel visualization plots consisting of multiple Pareto frontiers with tie-lines connecting the position of optimal configurations over a given titer range were constructed. These enabled rapid identification of robust purification configurations given titer fluctuations and the facility limit that the purification suites could handle in terms of the maximum titer and hence harvest load. Copyright © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE).

The neurovestibular challenges of astronauts and balance patients: some past countermeasures and two alternative approaches to elicitation, assessment and mitigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ben Lawson

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Astronauts and vestibular patients face analogous challenges to orientation function due to adaptive exogenous (weightlessness-induced or endogenous (pathology-induced alterations in the processing of acceleration stimuli. Given some neurovestibular similarities between these challenges, both affected groups may benefit from shared research approaches and adaptation measurement/improvement strategies. This paper reviews various past strategies and introduces two plausible ground-based approaches, the first of which is a method for eliciting and assessing vestibular adaptation-induced imbalance. Second, we review a strategy for mitigating imbalance associated with vestibular pathology and fostering readaptation. In discussing the first strategy (for imbalance assessment, we review a pilot study wherein imbalance was elicited (among healthy subjects via an adaptive challenge that caused a temporary/reversible disruption. The surrogate vestibular deficit was caused by a brief period of movement-induced adaptation to an altered (rotating gravitoinertial frame of reference. This elicited adaptation and caused imbalance when head movements were made after reentry into the normal (non-rotating frame of reference. We also review a strategy for fall mitigation, viz., a prototype tactile sway feedback device for aiding balance/recovery after disruptions caused by vestibular pathology. We introduce the device and review a preliminary exploration of its effectiveness in aiding clinical balance rehabilitation (discussing the implications for healthy astronauts. Both strategies reviewed in this paper represent cross-disciplinary research spin-offs: the ground-based vestibular challenge and tactile cueing display were derived from aeromedical research to benefit military aviators suffering from flight simulator-relevant aftereffects or inflight spatial disorientation, respectively. These strategies merit further evaluation using clinical and astronaut

Future transportation: Lifetime considerations and framework for sustainability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sweeting, Walter J.; Winfield, Patricia H.

2012-01-01

Modern society cannot exist without mobility. It is now essential to maintain access to everyday necessities, as well as being a vital part of most economies. However, our current transportation system is placing unsustainable demands on finite resources of fossil fuels, minerals and materials; change is therefore essential. Identifying rational choices is difficult because a future transport option must not only abate these demands over the entire lifetime, but do so at an affordable cost whilst maintaining acceptable levels of utility. This paper offers a framework to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria, in order to help validate current and future developments. It supports integrated comparisons of both fuel and vehicle technology combinations for cost, energy and greenhouse gas emissions throughout a vehicles lifetime. Case studies illustrate the use of this framework. All powertrains were found to require considerable amounts of energy and emit some emissions over their whole lifetime. Significant benefits over incumbent vehicles were found to be potentially attainable through the use of alternative powertrains. However, the majority of these benefits were currently found to increase user costs, worsen the vehicle production impacts and be heavily reliant on the source of the vehicles in-use energy. - Highlight: ► Cost, energy and GHG emissions throughout a vehicle’s lifetime are evaluated. ► This paper offers a structure to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria. ► Substantial amounts of energy and emissions were evident for all options. ► Significant environmental benefits over incumbent vehicles were found. ► In-use benefits were shown to shift impacts to other phases of a vehicle’s lifetime.

LTE delay assessment for real-time management of future smart grids

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jorguseski, L.; Zhang, H.; Chrysalos, M.; Golinski, M.; Toh, Y.

2017-01-01

This study investigates the feasibility of using Long Term Evolution (LTE), for the real-time state estimation of the smart grids. This enables monitoring and control of future smart grids. The smart grid state estimation requires measurement reports from different nodes in the smart grid and

Promotion orientation explains why future-oriented people exercise and eat healthy: evidence from the two-factor consideration of future consequences-14 scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Joireman, Jeff; Shaffer, Monte J; Balliet, Daniel; Strathman, Alan

2012-10-01

The authors extended research linking individual differences in consideration of future consequences (CFC) with health behaviors by (a) testing whether individual differences in regulatory focus would mediate that link and (b) highlighting the value of a revised, two-factor CFC-14 scale with subscales assessing concern with future consequences (CFC-Future) and concern with immediate consequences (CFC-Immediate) proper. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses of the revised CFC-14 scale supported the presence of two highly reliable factors (CFC-Future and CFC-Immediate; αs from .80 to .84). Moreover, structural equation modeling showed that those high in CFC-Future engage in exercise and healthy eating because they adopt a promotion orientation. Future use of the two-factor CFC-14 scale is encouraged to shed additional light on how concern with future and concern with immediate consequences (proper) differentially impact the way people resolve a host of intertemporal dilemmas (e.g., health, financial, and environmental behavior).

A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events

Science.gov (United States)

Taniguchi, Kenji

2018-04-01

To investigate future variations in high-impact weather events, numerous samples are required. For the detailed assessment in a specific region, a high spatial resolution is also required. A simple ensemble simulation technique is proposed in this paper. In the proposed technique, new ensemble members were generated from one basic state vector and two perturbation vectors, which were obtained by lagged average forecasting simulations. Sensitivity experiments with different numbers of ensemble members, different simulation lengths, and different perturbation magnitudes were performed. Experimental application to a global warming study was also implemented for a typhoon event. Ensemble-mean results and ensemble spreads of total precipitation, atmospheric conditions showed similar characteristics across the sensitivity experiments. The frequencies of the maximum total and hourly precipitation also showed similar distributions. These results indicate the robustness of the proposed technique. On the other hand, considerable ensemble spread was found in each ensemble experiment. In addition, the results of the application to a global warming study showed possible variations in the future. These results indicate that the proposed technique is useful for investigating various meteorological phenomena and the impacts of global warming. The results of the ensemble simulations also enable the stochastic evaluation of differences in high-impact weather events. In addition, the impacts of a spectral nudging technique were also examined. The tracks of a typhoon were quite different between cases with and without spectral nudging; however, the ranges of the tracks among ensemble members were comparable. It indicates that spectral nudging does not necessarily suppress ensemble spread.

Futures Brokerages Face uncertain Future

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WANG PEI

2006-01-01

@@ 2005 was a quiet year for China's futures market.After four new trading products, including cotton, fuel oil and corn, were launched on the market in 2004, the development of the market seemed to stagnate. The trade value of the futures market totaled 13.4 trillion yuan (US$ 1.67 trillion) in 2005, down 8.5 percent year-on-year. Although the decrease is quite small and the trade value was still the second highest in the market's history, the majority of futures brokerage firms were running in the red. In some areas, up to 80 percent of futures companies made losses.

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Ward, Jacob [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Joseck, Fred [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Gohlke, David [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Lindauer, Alicia [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Ramsden, Todd [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Alexander, Mark [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo; Barnhart, Steven [FCA US LLC, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326, United States; Sutherland, Ian [General Motors, Pontiac, Michigan 48340, United States; Verduzco, Laura [Chevron Corporation, Richmond, California 94802, United States; Wallington, Timothy J. [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121, United States

2018-01-30

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

2017-03-15

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya; Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa

2017-01-01

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

Nuclear energy, energy of the future or bad solution?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

The document presents the speeches of the debate on the nuclear energy solution for the future, presented during the meeting of the 6 may in Rennes, in the framework of the National Debate on the energies. The debate concerns the risks assessment and control, the solutions for the radioactive wastes, the foreign examples and the future of the nuclear energy. (A.L.B.)

Assessment of the energy efficiency enhancement of future mobile networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Litjens, R.; Toh, Y.; Zhang, H.; Blume, O.

2014-01-01

We assess the energy efficiency of mobile networks in 2020, and compare it with a 2010 baseline. A comprehensive assessment approach is taken, considering all relevant scenario aspects such as data traffic growth, hardware evolutions, mobile network deployments and operations including network

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future perspective and healthy lifestyle choices in adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Tasdemir-Ozdes, Aylin; Strickland-Hughes, Carla M; Bluck, Susan; Ebner, Natalie C

2016-09-01

Regardless of age, making healthy lifestyle choices is prudent. Despite that, individuals of all ages sometimes have difficulty choosing the healthy option. We argue that individuals' view of the future and position in the life span affects their current lifestyle choices. We capture the multidimensionality of future thinking by assessing 3 types of future perspective. Younger and older men and women (N = 127) reported global future time perspective, future health perspective, and perceived importance of future health-related events. They also rated their likelihood of making healthy lifestyle choices. As predicted, older participants indicated greater intention to make healthy choices in their current life than did younger participants. Compared to younger participants, older participants reported shorter global future time perspective and anticipated worse future health but perceived future health-related events as more important. Having a positive view of one's future health and seeing future health-related events as important were related to greater intention to make healthy lifestyle choices, but greater global future time perspective was not directly related to healthy choices. However, follow-up analyses suggested that greater global future time perspective indirectly affected healthy choices via a more positive view of future health. None of these relations were moderated by age. Individuals' perspective on the future is shown to be an important multidimensional construct affecting everyday healthy lifestyle choices for both younger and older adults. Implications for encouraging healthy choices across the adult life span are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Sustainable sludge management - what are the challenges for the future?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rulkens, Wim H.

2003-07-01

Sewage sludge is a serious problem due to the high treatment costs and the risks to environment and human health. Future sludge treatment will be progressively focused on an improved efficiency and environmental sustainability of the process. In this context a survey is given of most relevant sludge treatment options and separate treatment steps. Special attention is paid to those processes that are simultaneously focused on the elimination of the risks for environment and human health and on the recovery or beneficial use of the valuable compounds in the sludge such as organic carbon compounds, inorganic non-toxic substances, phosphorous and nitrogen containing compounds. Also, a brief assessment is given of the specific future technological developments regarding the various treatment steps. Furthermore, it is discussed how to assess the various pathways which can lead to the required developments. In such an assessment the technical and economic feasibility, the environmental sustainability, the societal acceptance and the implementation route are important factors. The optimal approach also strongly depends on the local and regional situation of concern and the relevant current and future boundary conditions. (author)

Assessment of future natural gas vehicle concepts

Science.gov (United States)

Groten, B.; Arrigotti, S.

1992-10-01

The development of Natural Gas Vehicles is progressing rapidly under the stimulus of recent vehicle emission regulations. The development is following what can be viewed as a three step progression. In the first step, contemporary gasoline or diesel fueled automobiles are retrofitted with equipment enabling the vehicle to operate on either natural gas or standard liquid fuels. The second step is the development of vehicles which utilize traditional internal combustion engines that have been modified to operate exclusively on natural gas. These dedicated natural gas vehicles operate more efficiently and have lower emissions than the dual fueled vehicles. The third step is the redesigning, from the ground up, of a vehicle aimed at exploiting the advantages of natural gas as an automotive fuel while minimizing its disadvantages. The current report is aimed at identifying the R&D needs in various fuel storage and engine combinations which have potential for providing increased efficiency, reduced emissions, and reductions in vehicle weight and size. Fuel suppliers, automobile and engine manufacturers, many segments of the natural gas and other industries, and regulatory authorities will influence or be affected by the development of such a third generation vehicle, and it is recommended that GRI act to bring these groups together in the near future to begin, developing the focus on a 'designed-for-natural-gas' vehicle.

Future Climate Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

C. G. Cambell

2004-09-03

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past

Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Hopcroft, Peter O.; Kandlbauer, Jessy; Valdes, Paul J.; Sparks, R. Stephen J.

2017-11-01

Volcanic eruptions are an important influence on decadal to centennial climate variability. Large eruptions lead to the formation of a stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer which can cause short-term global cooling. This response is modulated by feedback processes in the earth system, but the influence from future warming has not been assessed before. Using earth system model simulations we find that the eruption-induced cooling is significantly weaker in the future state. This is predominantly due to an increase in planetary albedo caused by increased tropospheric aerosol loading with a contribution from associated changes in cloud properties. The increased albedo of the troposphere reduces the effective volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. Reduced sea-ice coverage and hence feedbacks also contribute over high-latitudes, and an enhanced winter warming signal emerges in the future eruption ensemble. These findings show that the eruption response is a complex function of the environmental conditions, which has implications for the role of eruptions in climate variability in the future and potentially in the past.

Manitoba: path to a hydrogen future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parsons, R.V.; Crone, J.

2003-01-01

A hydrogen economy is not just about future clean energy but is also about future economic development. It is about new products, new services, new knowledge, and renewable energy sources that will be ultimately used by consumers in the future, and thus represent potential new economic opportunities. The concept of achieving important environmental and health goals through a cleaner energy economy, based on hydrogen, is not new. Similarly, the desire of individual jurisdictions to seek out and develop economic development opportunities is not new. The key question today becomes one of how to plot directions on hydrogen that will yield appropriate economic development gains in the future. While hydrogen offers significant promise, the prospect benefits are recognized to be still largely long-term in nature. In addition, the ability to identify appropriate future directions is clouded by a degree of 'hydrogen hype' and by a variety of major technical and market uncertainties. During 2002, a unique process was initiated within Manitoba combining these elements to work toward a Hydrogen Economic Development Strategy, a strategy that is ultimately intended to lead the province as a whole to determining our future economic niches for hydrogen. This paper describes the nature of the assessment process undertaken within Manitoba, the outcomes achieved and general insights of relevance to a broader audience. (author)

Accuracy of a Low-Cost Novel Computer-Vision Dynamic Movement Assessment: Potential Limitations and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

McGroarty, M.; Giblin, S.; Meldrum, D.; Wetterling, F.

2016-04-01

The aim of the study was to perform a preliminary validation of a low cost markerless motion capture system (CAPTURE) against an industry gold standard (Vicon). Measurements of knee valgus and flexion during the performance of a countermovement jump (CMJ) between CAPTURE and Vicon were compared. After correction algorithms were applied to the raw CAPTURE data acceptable levels of accuracy and precision were achieved. The knee flexion angle measured for three trials using Capture deviated by -3.8° ± 3° (left) and 1.7° ± 2.8° (right) compared to Vicon. The findings suggest that low-cost markerless motion capture has potential to provide an objective method for assessing lower limb jump and landing mechanics in an applied sports setting. Furthermore, the outcome of the study warrants the need for future research to examine more fully the potential implications of the use of low-cost markerless motion capture in the evaluation of dynamic movement for injury prevention.

Assessments of Future Maize Yield Potential Changes in the Korean Peninsula Using Multiple Crop Models

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S. H.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, J.; Lee, W. K.; Kafatos, M.

2016-12-01

The Korean Peninsula has unique agricultural environment due to the differences of political and socio-economical system between Republic of Korea (SK, hereafter) and Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (NK, hereafter). NK has been suffering lack of food supplies caused by natural disasters, land degradation and political failure. The neighboring developed country SK has better agricultural system but very low food self-sufficiency rate. Maize is an important crop in both countries since it is staple food for NK and SK is No. 2 maize importing country in the world after Japan. Therefore, evaluating maize yield potential (Yp) in the two distinct regions is essential to assess food security under climate change and variability. In this study, we utilized multiple process-based crop models, having ability of regional scale assessment, to evaluate maize Yp and assess the model uncertainties -EPIC, GEPIC, DSSAT, and APSIM model that has capability of regional scale expansion (apsimRegions). First we evaluated each crop model for 3 years from 2012 to 2014 using reanalysis data (RDAPS; Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System produced by Korea Meteorological Agency) and observed yield data. Each model performances were compared over the different regions in the Korean Peninsula having different local climate characteristics. To quantify of the major influence of at each climate variables, we also conducted sensitivity test using 20 years of climatology in historical period from 1981 to 2000. Lastly, the multi-crop model ensemble analysis was performed for future period from 2031 to 2050. The required weather variables projected for mid-century were employed from COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) East Asia. The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas

Assessment of the present and future implications of radioactive contamination of the Irish Sea coastal region of Cumbria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkins, B.T.; Simmonds, J.R.; Cooper, J.R.

1994-10-01

An assessment has been made of the doses that could be received by people who make use of the Cumbrian coastal area. Current doses have been estimated for residents and visitors to different parts of the area. By making assumptions about changes in waste management practices at the BNFL Sellafield plant and in the geography of the coastal area, the development of doses over the next 200 years has been assessed. The study was confined to exposure pathways in the terrestrial environment, although the influence of liquid discharges on terrestrial pathways was taken into account. Consumption of marine foodstuffs was outside the scope of the study. As expected, the highest doses would be received by those people who live closest to Sellafield. However, in all cases doses to average individuals were well below the present limit for members of the public specified by ICRP. The general future trend was for doses to decline. Doses were also estimated for particular population groups such as those who spend more time on beaches. While the resultant values were higher than those for average individuals, they were still well within the ICRP limit in all cases. (author)

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Fuchs

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country, plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30–100 m remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems. Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as

The future of nuclear power in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurtz, D.

1996-01-01

The current and future prospects of the nuclear power industry in Europe are assessed in this Financial Times Energy Publishing report. Key issues relating to the development of the industry in both Eastern and Western Europe are addressed. Changing governmental and popular attitudes to nuclear power are described and nuclear energy's likely future contribution to Europe's energy needs is discussed. Detailed production and consumption statistics make the document useful reading for those in nuclear generating companies, electric utilities, major power consumers, waste management companies, governments, regulatory bodies, investors and environmental groups amongst others. (UK)

Safety of commercial air travel following myocardial infarction.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, G R; Peterson, J; Bouchel, L; Delmas, J J

1996-10-01

Travelers occasionally suffer myocardial infarction (MI) while abroad. Existing guidelines recommend a 4- to 24-week convalescent period following MI before air travel should be permitted. Air travel may be undertaken safely in the early post-MI period. The aeromedical transport records of two international medical assistance companies over a 3-yr period were reviewed. We identified 209 patients who suffered MI; 13 transported by private air ambulance were excluded. We reviewed the aeromedical transports of the remaining 196 adults carried on commercial aircraft between 3-53 d post-MI to investigate the safety of air travel in this group. Data were recorded regarding patient age; sex; location of MI; complications of MI; presence of medical escort; duration of flight(s); use of oxygen, medications, or cardiac monitoring during transport; and development of symptoms in flight. Within 7 d of their acute MI 3 patients (2%) were transported; 87 (44%) between days 8-14 post-MI; 65 (33%) between days 15-21; 27 (14%) between days 22-28; and 14 (7%) more than 28 d post-MI. Some 187 patients (95%) were transported without incident; 9 (5%) patients experienced symptoms requiring evaluation by the escorting physician. Of the 9, 6 problems occurred in patients being transported less than 14 d post-MI. Symptoms resolved spontaneously or immediately after physician intervention in all but one case. International aeromedical transport of patients may be safely accomplished 2-3 wk after an acute MI when an accompanying physician is present. Recommendations for delaying travel more than 4 wk after infarction are not supported by clinical experience and should be revised.

Globalization: prospects of future international cooperation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dinu, I.P.

2001-01-01

As the world is moving into a new millennium, its energy needs are increasing. Next to nuclear generation alternative there is no power that creates more concern because of the many global and public issues and because of a large impact over the future. There is much discussion about globalization at this end of millenium, when human kind has already experienced atomic bomb and Chernobyl is haunting our dreams. But many benefits of nuclear in all area of life leads us to idea we have to assess before to choose, apply individual by local needs and policy and - most important - not impede the future generation to choose, its turn. (author)

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia; Ramsden, Todd; Biddy, Mary; Alexander, Mark; Barnhart, Steven; Sutherland, Ian; Verduzco, Laura; Wallington, Timothy J

2018-02-20

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ∼450 gCO 2 e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H 2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO 2 e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ∼350 gCO 2 /mi for ICEVs and ∼250 gCO 2e /mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Ward, Jacob [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Joseck, Fred [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Gohlke, David [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Lindauer, Alicia [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Ramsden, Todd [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Alexander, Mark [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo; Barnhart, Steven [FCA US LLC, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326, United States; Sutherland, Ian [General Motors, Pontiac, Michigan 48340, United States; Verduzco, Laura [Chevron Corporation, Richmond, California 94802, United States; Wallington, Timothy J. [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121, United States

2018-01-30

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025–2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300–350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25–$1.00/mi depending on timeframe and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60–90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Srevices in Tennessee

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Southworth, F.

2004-04-29

This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Services in Tennessee

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Southworth, F.

2003-06-10

This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

Science.gov (United States)

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-01

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Outcomes-Based Authentic Learning, Portfolio Assessment, and a Systems Approach to "Complex Problem-Solving": Related Pillars for Enhancing the Innovative Role of PBL in Future Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Richards, Cameron

2015-01-01

The challenge of better reconciling individual and collective aspects of innovative problem-solving can be productively addressed to enhance the role of PBL as a key focus of the creative process in future higher education. This should involve "active learning" approaches supported by related processes of teaching, assessment and…

A critical evaluation of the validity of episodic future thinking: A clinical neuropsychology perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Amanda M

2016-11-01

Episodic future thinking is defined as the ability to mentally simulate a future event. Although episodic future thinking has been studied extensively in neuroscience, this construct has not been explored in depth from the perspective of clinical neuropsychology. The aim of this critical narrative review is to assess the validity and clinical implications of episodic future thinking. A systematic review of episodic future thinking literature was conducted. PubMed and PsycInfo were searched through July 2015 for review and empirical articles with the following search terms: "episodic future thinking," "future mental simulation," "imagining the future," "imagining new experiences," "future mental time travel," "future autobiographical experience," and "prospection." The review discusses evidence that episodic future thinking is important for adaptive functioning, which has implications for neurological populations. To determine the validity of episodic future thinking, the construct is evaluated with respect to related constructs, such as imagination, episodic memory, autobiographical memory, prospective memory, narrative construction, and working memory. Although it has been minimally investigated, there is evidence of convergent and discriminant validity for episodic future thinking. Research has not addressed the incremental validity of episodic future thinking. Practical considerations of episodic future thinking tasks and related constructs in a clinical neuropsychological setting are considered. The utility of episodic future thinking is currently unknown due to the lack of research investigating the validity of episodic future thinking. Future work is discussed, which could determine whether episodic future thinking is an important missing piece in standard clinical neuropsychological assessment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Isokinetic strength assessment offers limited predictive validity for detecting risk of future hamstring strain in sport: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Brady; Bourne, Matthew N; Pizzari, Tania

2018-03-01

To examine the value of isokinetic strength assessment for predicting risk of hamstring strain injury, and to direct future research into hamstring strain injuries. Systematic review. Database searches for Medline, CINAHL, Embase, AMED, AUSPORT, SPORTDiscus, PEDro and Cochrane Library from inception to April 2017. Manual reference checks, ahead-of-press and citation tracking. Prospective studies evaluating isokinetic hamstrings, quadriceps and hip extensor strength testing as a risk factor for occurrence of hamstring muscle strain. Independent search result screening. Risk of bias assessment by independent reviewers using Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Best evidence synthesis and meta-analyses of standardised mean difference (SMD). Twelve studies were included, capturing 508 hamstring strain injuries in 2912 athletes. Isokinetic knee flexor, knee extensor and hip extensor outputs were examined at angular velocities ranging 30-300°/s, concentric or eccentric, and relative (Nm/kg) or absolute (Nm) measures. Strength ratios ranged between 30°/s and 300°/s. Meta-analyses revealed a small, significant predictive effect for absolute (SMD=-0.16, P=0.04, 95% CI -0.31 to -0.01) and relative (SMD=-0.17, P=0.03, 95% CI -0.33 to -0.014) eccentric knee flexor strength (60°/s). No other testing speed or strength ratio showed statistical association. Best evidence synthesis found over half of all variables had moderate or strong evidence for no association with future hamstring injury. Despite an isolated finding for eccentric knee flexor strength at slow speeds, the role and application of isokinetic assessment for predicting hamstring strain risk should be reconsidered, particularly given costs and specialised training required. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Risk assessment analysis of the future technical unit dedicated to the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R

2011-03-01

The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The future of PACS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagy, Paul G.

2007-01-01

How will the future of picture archiving and communication systems (PACS) look, and how will this future affect the practice of radiology? We are currently experiencing disruptive innovations that will force an architectural redesign, making the majority of today’s commercial PACS obsolete as the field matures and expands to include imaging throughout the medical enterprise. The common architecture used for PACS cannot handle the massive amounts of data being generated by even current versions of computed tomography and magnetic resonance scanners. If a PACS cannot handle today’s technology, what will happen as the field expands to encompass pathology imaging, cone-beam reconstruction, and multispectral imaging? The ability of these new technologies to enhance research and clinical care will be impaired if PACS architectures are not prepared to support them. In attempting a structured approach to predictions about the future of PACS, we offer projections about the technologies underlying PACS as well as the evolution of standards development and the changing needs of a broad range of medical imaging. Simplified models of the history of the PACS industry are mined for the assumptions they provide about future innovations and trends. The physicist frequently participates in or directs technical assessments for medical equipment, and many physicists have extended these activities to include imaging informatics. It is hoped that by applying these speculative but experienced-based predictions, the interested medical physicist will be better able to take the lead in setting information technology strategies that will help facilities not only prepare for the future but continue to enjoy the benefits of technological innovations without disruptive, expensive, and unexpected changes in architecture. A good PACS strategy can help accelerate the time required for innovations to go from the drawing board to clinical implementation.

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-01-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

Future studies and research in Egypt. Overview, examples, perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goell, Edgar

2012-02-15

During the last decade there have been several distinct activities and efforts with regards to future research in Egypt. Several institutions and capacities have been created. Although these capacities do not always meet high scientific standards, their results and studies offer important and well-grounded elements for future-oriented discussions and political decisions. Not least because of the Egypt revolt which started in January 2011 and the ongoing complex and conflicting societal struggles in Egypt the objective needs as well as the demand for systematic future thinking and future studies will very likely increase further. For that reason this report presents an overview about the context conditions, experiences and forms of future research in Egypt. The major challenges as well as the major issues are described. The main part is the description of the most important institutions, which are conducting future research, their projects and in addition two concrete projects, which try to practice Sustainable Development in different ways. Finally, several (self-)critical assessments and perspectives from selected experts of the future research community in Egypt will be presented.

Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers – a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Pulido-Velazquez

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater–salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC and land use and land cover (LULC change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it, and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes and sea level rise (SLR. The proposed analysis is valuable for

Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

Science.gov (United States)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to

Beyond Renewable Portfolio Standards: An Assessment of Regional Supply and Demand Conditions Affecting the Future of Renewable Energy in the West; Report and Executive Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hurlbut, D. J.; McLaren, J.; Gelman, R.

2013-08-01

This study assesses the outlook for utility-scale renewable energy development in the West once states have met their renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements. In the West, the last state RPS culminates in 2025, so the analysis uses 2025 as a transition point on the timeline of RE development. Most western states appear to be on track to meet their final requirements, relying primarily on renewable resources located relatively close to the customers being served. What happens next depends on several factors including trends in the supply and price of natural gas, greenhouse gas and other environmental regulations, consumer preferences, technological breakthroughs, and future public policies and regulations. Changes in any one of these factors could make future renewable energy options more or less attractive.

FutureGen Project Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike

2010-09-30

This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: • Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization • Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling • FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document • Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance

Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematics among children and adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Chloe T.; Bunge, Silvia A.; Chiongbian, Victoria Briones; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

2017-01-01

The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills, above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5 years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21 across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's prior cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; neither age, vocabulary, nor spatial skills were significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR (Cattell, 1987) as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems. PMID:28152390

Future city architecture for optimal living

CERN Document Server

Pardalos, Panos

2015-01-01

  This book offers a wealth of interdisciplinary approaches to urbanization strategies in architecture centered on growing concerns about the future of cities and their impacts on essential elements of architectural optimization, livability, energy consumption and sustainability. It portrays the urban condition in architectural terms, as well as the living condition in human terms, both of which can be optimized by mathematical modeling as well as mathematical calculation and assessment.   Special features include:   ·        new research on the construction of future cities and smart cities   ·        discussions of sustainability and new technologies designed to advance ideas to future city developments   Graduate students and researchers in architecture, engineering, mathematical modeling, and building physics will be engaged by the contributions written by eminent international experts from a variety of disciplines including architecture, engineering, modeling, optimization, and relat...

Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

2010-01-01

The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

Critical research needs for identifying future changes in Gulf coral reef ecosystems

KAUST Repository

Feary, David A.

2013-07-01

Expert opinion was assessed to identify current knowledge gaps in determining future changes in Arabian/Persian Gulf (thereafter \\'Gulf\\') coral reefs. Thirty-one participants submitted 71 research questions that were peer-assessed in terms of scientific importance (i.e., filled a knowledge gap and was a research priority) and efficiency in resource use (i.e., was highly feasible and ecologically broad). Ten research questions, in six major research areas, were highly important for both understanding Gulf coral reef ecosystems and also an efficient use of limited research resources. These questions mirrored global evaluations of the importance of understanding and evaluating biodiversity, determining the potential impacts of climate change, the role of anthropogenic impacts in structuring coral reef communities, and economically evaluating coral reef communities. These questions provide guidance for future research on coral reef ecosystems within the Gulf, and enhance the potential for assessment and management of future changes in this globally significant region. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Critical research needs for identifying future changes in Gulf coral reef ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Feary, David A.; Burt, John A.; Bauman, Andrew G.; Al Hazeem, Shaker; Abdel-Moati, Mohamed A.; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa A.; Anderson, Donald M.; Amos, Carl; Baker, Andrew; Bartholomew, Aaron; Bento, Rita; Cavalcante, Geórgenes H.; Chen, Chaolun Allen; Coles, Steve L.; Dab, Koosha; Fowler, Ashley M.; George, David; Grandcourt, Edwin; Hill, Ross; John, David M.; Jones, David A.; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Mahmoud, Huda; Moradi Och Tapeh, Mahdi; Mostafavi, Pargol Ghavam; Naser, Humood; Pichon, Michel; Purkis, Sam; Riegl, Bernhard; Samimi-Namin, Kaveh; Sheppard, Charles; Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wiedenmann, Joerg

2014-01-01

Expert opinion was assessed to identify current knowledge gaps in determining future changes in Arabian/ Persian Gulf (thereafter ‘Gulf’) coral reefs. Thirty-one participants submitted 71 research questions that were peer-assessed in terms of scientific importance (i.e., filled a knowledge gap and was a research priority) and efficiency in resource use (i.e., was highly feasible and ecologically broad). Ten research questions, in six major research areas, were highly important for both understanding Gulf coral reef ecosystems and also an efficient use of limited research resources. These questions mirrored global evaluations of the importance of understanding and evaluating biodiversity, determining the potential impacts of climate change, the role of anthropogenic impacts in structuring coral reef communities, and economically evaluating coral reef communities. These questions provide guidance for future research on coral reef ecosystems within the Gulf, and enhance the potential for assessment and management of future changes in this globally significant region. PMID:23643407

Critical research needs for identifying future changes in Gulf coral reef ecosystems

KAUST Repository

Feary, David A.; Burt, John A.; Bauman, Andrew G.; Al Hazeem, Shaker; Abdel-Moati, Mohamed A R; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa A.; Anderson, Donald M.; Amos, Carl L.; Baker, Andrew C.; Bartholomew, Aaron; Bento, Rita; Cavalcante, Geó rgenes H.; Chen, Chaolun Allen; Coles, Steve L.; Dab, Koosha; Fowler, Ashley M.; George, David Glen; Grandcourt, Edwin Mark; Hill, Ross; John, David Michael; Jones, David Alan; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Mahmoud, Huda M A; Moradi Och Tapeh, Mahdi; Mostafavi, Pargol Ghavam; Naser, Humood A.; Pichon, Michel; Purkis, Sam J.; Riegl, Bernhard M.; Samimi-Namin, Kaveh; Sheppard, Charles R C; Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wiedenmann, Jö rg

2013-01-01

Expert opinion was assessed to identify current knowledge gaps in determining future changes in Arabian/Persian Gulf (thereafter 'Gulf') coral reefs. Thirty-one participants submitted 71 research questions that were peer-assessed in terms of scientific importance (i.e., filled a knowledge gap and was a research priority) and efficiency in resource use (i.e., was highly feasible and ecologically broad). Ten research questions, in six major research areas, were highly important for both understanding Gulf coral reef ecosystems and also an efficient use of limited research resources. These questions mirrored global evaluations of the importance of understanding and evaluating biodiversity, determining the potential impacts of climate change, the role of anthropogenic impacts in structuring coral reef communities, and economically evaluating coral reef communities. These questions provide guidance for future research on coral reef ecosystems within the Gulf, and enhance the potential for assessment and management of future changes in this globally significant region. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Assessment of the Adaptation Strategiesin Rainfed Chickpea in Response to Future Climate Change in Zanjan Province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amir Hajarpoor

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Introduction Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. is cultivated on alarge scale in arid and semiarid environments. Terminal drought and heat stress, among other abiotic and biotic stresses, are the major constraints of yield in most regions of chickpea production. The study of the effects of climate change could help to develop adaptation strategies to promote and stabilize crop yield. This research was aimed to assess adoption strategies in rainfed chickpea in response to Zanjan province’s climate change using a crop simulation model along with providing simulated yield maps using geographical information system (GIS. Materials and methods To study the effects of climate change and simulation the adaptation strategies, the model of Soltani and Sinclair (Soltani & Sinclair, 2011 was used. This model simulates phenological development, leaf development and senescence, mass partitioning, plant nitrogen balance, yield formation and soil water balance. For each location, a baseline period of daily weather data was available (Table 1. Investigated scenarios were historical climate (control and future climate scenarios that included both direct effects of doubling CO2 (350 to 700 ppm and its indirect effects (10% reduced rainfall, 4ºC increase in temperature. The crop model was performed for the different years of baseline period for current and future climate under typical management and cultivar and also under three adaptation strategies in the future climate including Management adaptation (M, Genetic adaptation (G and a combination of both Management and Genetic adaptation (M & G as described below (Table 2: Management – In various studies changing the planting dates as the simplest and least-cost adaptation strategy has been emphasized (Luo et al., 2009; hence a shift in planting dates i.e. sowing 15 days in advance was explored in this study to reduce the risk of the late season drought. Genetics – Changes in genotype have been suggested to be

Searching for native tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Domingos, Marisa; Bulbovas, Patricia; Camargo, Carla Z.S.; Aguiar-Silva, Cristiane; Brandão, Solange E.; Dafré-Martinelli, Marcelle; Dias, Ana Paula L.; Engela, Marcela R.G.S.; Gagliano, Janayne; Moura, Barbara B.; Alves, Edenise S.; Rinaldi, Mirian C.S.; Gomes, Eduardo P.C.; Furlan, Claudia M.; Figueiredo, Ana Maria G.

2015-01-01

This study summarizes the first effort to search for bioindicator tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of potential mixed pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil. Leaves of the three most abundant species inventoried in a phytosociological survey (Croton floribundus, Piptadenia gonoacantha and Astronium graveolens) were collected in four forest remnants during winter and summer (2012). Their potential bioindicator attributes were highlighted using a screening of morphological, chemical and biochemical markers. The leaf surface structure and/or epicuticular wax composition pointed the accumulator properties of C. floribundus and P. gonoacantha. C. floribundus is a candidate for assessing potential accumulation of Cu, Cd, Mn, Ni, S and Zn. P. gonoacantha is a candidate to monitor polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Increased levels of secondary metabolites and decreased antioxidant capacity in leaves of A. graveolens may support its value as a bioindicator for oxidative pollutants by visible dark stipplings. - Highlights: • We searched for tree species from Atlantic Forest for future air pollution monitoring in Brazil. • Croton floribundus, Astronium graveolens and Piptadenia gonoacantha were possible bioindicators. • P. gonoachanta was a potential bioindicator of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. • C. floribundus was a potential bioindicator of heavy metals and sulfur. • A. graveolens may be used for monitoring oxidative pollutants, due to its biochemical leaf traits. - Inherent characteristics of the most abundant native tree species were potential biomarkers for assessing pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall

OpenAIRE

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-01-01

Significance Natural disasters such as the recent Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria highlight the need for quantitative estimates of the risk of such disasters. Statistically based risk assessment suffers from short records of often poor quality, and in the case of meteorological hazards, from the fact that the underlying climate is changing. This study shows how a recently developed physics-based risk assessment method can be applied to assessing the probabilities of extreme hurricane rainf...

Modelling requirements for future assessments based on FEP analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs that are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs that form part of the natural evolution of the system and those, which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics, subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. The aim of this document is to present the methodology that has been developed for deriving modelling requirements and to illustrate the application of the methodology by

Parents in the Migratory Space between Past, Present and Future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Birgitte Romme

2018-01-01

on the future within the everyday sociocultural framework of the Danish welfare state. It is argued that they mostly comprehend and carry out their strivings for a better future by means of a narratively grounded, intergenerational rationale. This rationale invites them to assess the success of the family......’s entire act of migration in terms of what the future promises for their children. The article thus illuminates and crystallizes how among newly recognized refugee families mundane intergenerational dynamics form a crucial relational and temporal factor with regard to the parents’ building of existential...

HC/MC-130 Recapitalization Aircraft (HC/MC-130 Recap)

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-01

rigging for aerial delivery, aeromedical and other rigging, and principles of cargo restraint for Loadmaster personnel. This allows for training without...Initial APUC Production Estimate Changes APUC Current Estimate Econ Qty Sch Eng Est Oth Spt Total 108.841 0.842 0.871 -0.756 2.167 -12.630 0.000 9.607

Predicting Future Training Opportunities Using the Land-Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Westervelt, James D; Nemeth, Sarah B; White, Michael J; Kemme, Michael R; Morrison, Dawn A; Eastgate, Christa; Ginsberg, Mark

2007-01-01

The future training/testing capacities of military installations and their surrounding regions are increasingly based on today's smart regional planning in collaboration with surrounding cities, counties, and states...

Assessing the economic impact of Rx-to-OTC switches: systematic review and guidelines for future development.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, J; Millier, A; Karray, S; Toumi, M

2013-01-01

Switching drugs from prescription to non-prescription status (Rx-to-OTC) presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities to policy-makers and the industry in terms of managing health outcomes, pharmaceutical spending, and steering of consumer choices of therapy. Decision-analytic models are used to address uncertainty and produce reasonable estimates of the economic impact of switches for payers. This article presents a critical literature review of existing models which assess the economic impact of Rx-to-OTC switches, and provides guidelines in which future economic evaluations of Rx-to-OTC switches could be improved. A comprehensive search strategy was implemented in Medline and Embase, to retrieve published economic evaluations on Rx-to-OTC switches from 1995-2010. The research digest of the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) was reviewed for potentially relevant abstracts for the past 3 years. Each model used was critically evaluated in terms of structure, relevance of inputs, methodology used, and robustness of results. Worldwide, the economic impact of Rx-to-OTC switches has only been evaluated in a total of 12 peer-reviewed publications. Ten out of 12 studies were US-based, and two European-based. The models covered various disease categories, including allergy, hypercholesterolemia, gastroenterology, contraception, pulmonology, and virology. Seventy-five per cent of the models predicted cost savings for payers and patients. Limitations of the models mainly included use of strong assumptions and non-inclusion of specific populations due to lack of data. Guidelines were developed to help future model development. They cover structural issues on decision context, health states, and clinical outcomes, and other considerations for model specifications. Although reviewed studies lacked quality, this review of economic evidence of Rx-to-OTC switches suggests that switches may produce cost savings to public and private

Back to the future: nostalgia increases optimism.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, Wing-Yee; Wildschut, Tim; Sedikides, Constantine; Hepper, Erica G; Arndt, Jamie; Vingerhoets, Ad J J M

2013-11-01

This research examined the proposition that nostalgia is not simply a past-oriented emotion, but its scope extends into the future, and, in particular, a positive future. We adopted a convergent validation approach, using multiple methods to assess the relation between nostalgia and optimism. Study 1 tested whether nostalgic narratives entail traces of optimism; indeed, nostalgic (compared with ordinary) narratives contained more expressions of optimism. Study 2 manipulated nostalgia through the recollection of nostalgic (vs. ordinary) events, and showed that nostalgia boosts optimism. Study 3 demonstrated that the effect of nostalgia (induced with nomothetically relevant songs) on optimism is mediated by self-esteem. Finally, Study 4 established that nostalgia (induced with idiographically relevant lyrics) fosters social connectedness, which subsequently increases self-esteem, which then boosts optimism. The nostalgic experience is inherently optimistic and paints a subjectively rosier future.

Risk Assessment and Life Cycle Assessment, Environmental Strategies, Nordic Workshop, Vedbæk 1999

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poll, Christian

At a Nordic workshop on Product-oriented Environmental Strategies the roles of risk and hazard assessment and life cycle assessment of products in the future regulation of chemicals were discussed by participants representing administration, academia and industry from the Nordic countries....... This report compiles the papers and presentations given at the workshop. The papers present and discuss the different assessment tools and procedures - for individual chemicals through hazard and risk assessments and for products, materials and services through life-cycle assessment. The report also contains......, consultants and private enterprises to consider these well-established tools as individually necessary for the future regulation of the chemical pressure on the environment and to accept them as complementary to each other. Together with other process- or chain oriented tools like Substance or Material Flow...

Conditional and future tense impairment in non-fluent aphasia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rofes, Adrià; Bastiaanse, Roelien; Martínez-Ferreiro, Silvia

2014-01-01

Background:Morphological errors of tense and agreement are salient in agrammatic aphasia. The PADILIH predicts impairments in discourse linking that translate to greater difficulties in referring to a past event time than to a future or a present event time. In Catalan, the Periphrastic conditional...... between verb forms that refer to an irrealis future event (Simple conditional and Future). We also assessed whether problems in time reference extend to individuals with non-fluent aphasia that are not typical agrammatic Broca aphasia. Methods & Procedures:A sentence completion task that included 60...... sentences (20 per type) of equal length in a Conditional structure (if-sentences) was designed. We tested three sentence types: Periphrastic conditional, Simple conditional and Future. The task was administered to nine participants with non-fluent aphasia and nine age-matched non-brain-damaged participants...

Climate - Our future?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schotterer, U.

1992-01-01

The aim of this picture-based book is to make climate change understandable to a wider public. Images tell the story, figure captions enhance the essentials. Text passages tie and highlight the story, rather than provide long explanations of complex scientific reasoning. Brief summaries at the end of each chapter review knowledge of which everybody should be aware. They are based on the scientific assessments of the 1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report. The climate story is explored from six different angles: the physical system, past changes, how climate affects cultures, how people affect climate, the importance of research and how to view the future

Electric energy storage systems for future hybrid vehicles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kemper, Hans; Huelshorst, Thomas [FEV Motorentechnik GmbH, Aachen (Germany); Sauer, Dirk Uwe [Elektrochemische Energiewandlung und Speichersystemtechnik, ISEA, RWTH Aachen Univ. (Germany)

2008-07-01

Electric energy storage systems play a key role in today's and even more in future hybrid and electric vehicles. They enable new additional functionalities like Start/Stop, regenerative braking or electric boost and pure electric drive. This article discusses properties and requirements of battery systems like power provision, energy capacity, life time as a function of the hybrid concepts and the real operating conditions of the today's and future hybrid drivetrains. Battery cell technology, component sizing, system design, operating strategy safety measures and diagnosis, modularity and vehicle integration are important battery development topics. A final assessment will draw the conclusion that future drivetrain concepts with higher degree of electrician will be significantly dependent on the progress of battery technology. (orig.)

A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2010-01-01

solicited to construct these scenarios.The methods for mapping the current LULC and ecosystem disturbances will require the extensive use of both remote-sensing data and field-survey data (for example, forest inventories) to capture and characterize landscape-changing events. For potential LULC changes and ecosystem disturbances, key drivers such as socioeconomic and climate changes will be used in addition to the biophysical data. The result of these analyses will be a series of maps for each future year for each scenario. These annual maps will form the basis for estimating carbon storage and GHG emissions. For terrestrial ecosystems, carbon storage, carbon-sequestration capacities, and GHG emissions under the present conditions and future scenarios will be assessed using the LULC-change and ecosystem-disturbance estimates in map format with a spatially explicit biogeochemical ensemble modeling system that incorporates properties of management activities (such as tillage or harvesting) and properties of individual ecosystems (such as energy exchange, vegetation characteristics, hydrological cycling, and soil attributes). For aquatic ecosystems, carbon burial in sediments and fluxes of GHG are functions of the present and future potential stream flow and sediment transport and will be assessed using empirical hydrological modeling methods. Validation and uncertainty analysis methods described in the methodology will follow established guidelines to assess the quality of the assessment results.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Level II ecoregions map will be the practical instrument for developing and delivering assessment results. Consequently, the ecoregion (there are 22 modified ecoregions) will be the reporting unit of the assessment because the scenarios, assessment results, validation, and uncertainty analysis will be produced at that scale. The implementation of these methods will require collaborations among various Federal agencies, State agencies

Using the CLM Crop Model to assess the impacts of changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Geographic Distribution on Historical and Future Crop Yields

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, P.

2015-12-01

Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate

Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Zhongkai; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Y; Zhu, Chunqing; Zhao, Yifan; Hao, Shiying; Zheng, Le; Fu, Changlin; Wen, Qiaojun; Ji, Jun; Li, Zhen; Wang, Yong; Zheng, Xiaolin; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

2015-01-13

An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a

Was Pharmacy Their Preferred Choice? Assessing Pharmacy Students’ Motivation to Study Pharmacy, Attitudes and Future Career Intentions in Sierra Leone

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Bai James

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Background: There is a dearth of skilled pharmaceutical workforce in the African region, and this is partly due to a limited number of prospective students entering the profession. An understanding of the factors that influence the choice of pharmacy as a career is needed to attract highly motivated and skilled individuals into the profession. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess pharmacy students’ motivation to study pharmacy, their attitude and future career intentions in Sierra Leone. Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey of undergraduate pharmacy students enrolled at the College of Medicine, and Allied Health Sciences, University of Sierra Leone (COMAHS – USL was carried out between May and June 2015. Descriptive statistics, as well as chi-square and Fisher exact two-tailed tests were used to analyze the data. Results: Close to a quarter (24.3% of pharmacy students surveyed chose pharmacy as their preferred major. The choice of pharmacy as a preferred major was common among first-year students, (p=0.001, those who were married (p<0.001 and have had pharmacy practice experience (p<0.001. Motivation for choosing pharmacy was assessed based on three domains (education, personal and career-related factors.Students cited a subject teacher at school ̸ College (66.7% as the most education-related influence, while friends and family members (61.1% was the major personal-related factor. Also, students considered the desire for self-employment in a healthcare related job (27.8%, and excellent career opportunities (27.8% as the major career-related factors that influenced their choice of pharmacy as a preferred major. Medicine was the first choice of study among the majority (95% of students that chose pharmacy as a second choice when seeking admission into the university. Pharmacy students demonstrated a positive attitude toward the profession, and considered drug manufacturing (47.3% and hospital pharmacy (43

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Retel, Valesca; Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; van Harten, Willem H.

2012-01-01

Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and

EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

Future trends in image coding

Science.gov (United States)

Habibi, Ali

1993-01-01

The objective of this article is to present a discussion on the future of image data compression in the next two decades. It is virtually impossible to predict with any degree of certainty the breakthroughs in theory and developments, the milestones in advancement of technology and the success of the upcoming commercial products in the market place which will be the main factors in establishing the future stage to image coding. What we propose to do, instead, is look back at the progress in image coding during the last two decades and assess the state of the art in image coding today. Then, by observing the trends in developments of theory, software, and hardware coupled with the future needs for use and dissemination of imagery data and the constraints on the bandwidth and capacity of various networks, predict the future state of image coding. What seems to be certain today is the growing need for bandwidth compression. The television is using a technology which is half a century old and is ready to be replaced by high definition television with an extremely high digital bandwidth. Smart telephones coupled with personal computers and TV monitors accommodating both printed and video data will be common in homes and businesses within the next decade. Efficient and compact digital processing modules using developing technologies will make bandwidth compressed imagery the cheap and preferred alternative in satellite and on-board applications. In view of the above needs, we expect increased activities in development of theory, software, special purpose chips and hardware for image bandwidth compression in the next two decades. The following sections summarize the future trends in these areas.

Wind diesel systems - design assessment and future potential

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Infield, D.G.; Scotney, A.; Lundsager, P.

1992-01-01

Diesels are the obvious form. of back-up electricity generation in small to medium sized wind systems. High wind penetrations pose significant technical problems for the system designer, ranging from component sizing to control specification and dynamic stability. A key role is seen for proven...... system models for assessing both dynamic characteristics and overall performance and economics. An introduction is provided to the Wind Diesel Engineering Design Toolkit currently under development (for implementation on PC) by a consortium of leading wind diesel experts, representing six European...

Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Okjeong Lee

2016-01-01

Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosa Björk Thorolfsdottir

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland, ii population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study, and iii effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses. Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1 If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2 If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3 Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.

The critical care air transport program.

Science.gov (United States)

Beninati, William; Meyer, Michael T; Carter, Todd E

2008-07-01

The critical care air transport team program is a component of the U.S. Air Force Aeromedical Evacuation system. A critical care air transport team consists of a critical care physician, critical care nurse, and respiratory therapist along with the supplies and equipment to operate a portable intensive care unit within a cargo aircraft. This capability was developed to support rapidly mobile surgical teams with high capability for damage control resuscitation and limited capacity for postresuscitation care. The critical care air transport team permits rapid evacuation of stabilizing casualties to a higher level of care. The aeromedical environment presents important challenges for the delivery of critical care. All equipment must be tested for safety and effectiveness in this environment before use in flight. The team members must integrate the current standards of care with the limitation imposed by stresses of flight on their patient. The critical care air transport team capability has been used successfully in a range of settings from transport within the United States, to disaster response, to support of casualties in combat.

Behind the scenes of GS: Mapping the future of CERN

CERN Multimedia

Sophie Louise Hetherton

2014-01-01

Focus on the Future Accelerator Studies (FAS) section at CERN who carry out the civil engineering studies for the Laboratory’s future scientific facilities.   The Future Accelerator Studies (FAS) section co-ordinates the civil engineering and infrastructure studies for large-scale future physics projects. These include projects due to complete in a couple of years such as AWAKE, but also projects planned for ten years’ time such as the High Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) or even longer term projects such as the Future Circular Collider (FCC), for which approval is still pending. “CERN needs to be able to study the feasibility and assess the risks of future projects, even though they are not all fully approved,” explains John Osborne, Head of the FAS section, which also includes two fellows and one technical student. “Our small team works closely with other groups across CERN and with external companies to provide studies from a civil engineering poin...

Noise computation for future urban air traffic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arntzen, M.; Aalmoes, R.; Bussink, F.; Sunil, E.; Hoekstra, J.M.

2015-01-01

The development of Personal aerial vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles are expected to have a considerable influence on the development of future airspace design around large cities. In the Metropolis project, four different concepts for airspace design are assessed for a (metropolitan) city of

Potential Future Igneous Activity at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cline, M.; Perry, F.; Valentine, G.; Smistad, E.

2005-01-01

Location, timing, and volumes of post-Miocene volcanic activity, along with expert judgment, provide the basis for assessing the probability of future volcanism intersecting a proposed repository for nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Analog studies of eruptive centers in the region that may represent the style and extent of possible future igneous activity at Yucca Mountain have aided in defining the consequence scenarios for intrusion into and eruption through a proposed repository. Modeling of magmatic processes related to magma/proposed repository interactions has been used to assess the potential consequences of a future igneous event through a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. Results of work to date indicate future igneous activity in the Yucca Mountain region has a very low probability of intersecting the proposed repository. Probability of a future event intersecting a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain is approximately 1.7 x 10 -8 per year. Since completion of the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) in 1996, anomalies representing potential buried volcanic centers have been identified from aeromagnetic surveys. A re-assessment of the hazard is currently underway to evaluate the probability of intersection in light of new information and to estimate the probability of one or more volcanic conduits located in the proposed repository along a dike that intersects the proposed repository. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations for siting and licensing a proposed repository require that the consequences of a disruptive event (igneous event) with annual probability greater than 1 x 10 -8 be evaluated. Two consequence scenarios are considered: (1) igneous intrusion-poundwater transport case and (2) volcanic eruptive case. These scenarios equate to a dike or dike swarm intersecting repository drifts containing waste packages, formation of a conduit leading to a volcanic eruption through the repository that carries the contents of

The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reusch, Thorsten B. H.; Dierking, Jan; Andersson, Helen C.

2018-01-01

Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are diff......Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use...... are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history...... of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess...

The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

Science.gov (United States)

Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

2015-04-01

There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation

Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadorsky, Perry

2006-01-01

Forecasts of oil price volatility are important inputs into macroeconometric models, financial market risk assessment calculations like value at risk, and option pricing formulas for futures contracts. This paper uses several different univariate and multivariate statistical models to estimate forecasts of daily volatility in petroleum futures price returns. The out-of-sample forecasts are evaluated using forecast accuracy tests and market timing tests. The TGARCH model fits well for heating oil and natural gas volatility and the GARCH model fits well for crude oil and unleaded gasoline volatility. Simple moving average models seem to fit well in some cases provided the correct order is chosen. Despite the increased complexity, models like state space, vector autoregression and bivariate GARCH do not perform as well as the single equation GARCH model. Most models out perform a random walk and there is evidence of market timing. Parametric and non-parametric value at risk measures are calculated and compared. Non-parametric models outperform the parametric models in terms of number of exceedences in backtests. These results are useful for anyone needing forecasts of petroleum futures volatility. (author)

Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zongci Zhao

2011-01-01

@@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

Valuing future citizens' values regarding risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, Patricia

2006-01-01

Valuing present citizen's values regarding the risks they face is an important aspect of risk assessment and risk acceptability. Conferences like VALDOR are held for this reason. Governments like Sweden have national referendums on various risk-prone enterprises. The results of these referendums can determine the future of these programs. In the United States, when guidelines are set for determining acceptable levels of risk, the relevant federal agencies are often required to provide a comment period regarding proposed guidelines in order to ascertain the judgments, including the weights place on certain values, of individual members of society as well as stakeholder groups. After the comment period ends, the agency decides on the acceptable level of risk, taking into account the comments from present citizens. Do we also have a duty to value the not-yet-existing values of future citizens, especially if the risks created by the activities of present citizens extend into the future to citizens not yet living? If so, are there any circumstances which entitle us to de-value those not-yet-existing values. In this paper, I ground my discussion of the question of valuing future citizens' values in one of the areas of focus of the VALDOR conference: nuclear waste management and specifically the question facing the United States' program regarding an acceptable dose standard associated with the release of radioactivity into the biosphere from an underground repository. The underlying conference theme to which this discussion may be attached is community environmental justice as it applies to future citizens. I focus on the role that uncertainty plays is providing justice between present and future citizens

Valuing future citizens' values regarding risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, Patricia [Creighton Univ., Omaha (United States). College of Arts and Sciences/Philosophy

2006-09-15

Valuing present citizen's values regarding the risks they face is an important aspect of risk assessment and risk acceptability. Conferences like VALDOR are held for this reason. Governments like Sweden have national referendums on various risk-prone enterprises. The results of these referendums can determine the future of these programs. In the United States, when guidelines are set for determining acceptable levels of risk, the relevant federal agencies are often required to provide a comment period regarding proposed guidelines in order to ascertain the judgments, including the weights place on certain values, of individual members of society as well as stakeholder groups. After the comment period ends, the agency decides on the acceptable level of risk, taking into account the comments from present citizens. Do we also have a duty to value the not-yet-existing values of future citizens, especially if the risks created by the activities of present citizens extend into the future to citizens not yet living? If so, are there any circumstances which entitle us to de-value those not-yet-existing values. In this paper, I ground my discussion of the question of valuing future citizens' values in one of the areas of focus of the VALDOR conference: nuclear waste management and specifically the question facing the United States' program regarding an acceptable dose standard associated with the release of radioactivity into the biosphere from an underground repository. The underlying conference theme to which this discussion may be attached is community environmental justice as it applies to future citizens. I focus on the role that uncertainty plays is providing justice between present and future citizens.

Energy futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Treat, J.E.

1990-01-01

This book provides fifteen of the futures industry's leading authorities with broader background in both theory and practice of energy futures trading in this updated text. The authors review the history of the futures market and the fundamentals of trading, hedging, and technical analysis; then they update you with the newest trends in energy futures trading - natural gas futures, options, regulations, and new information services. The appendices outline examples of possible contracts and their construction

Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woodard, J.D.; Egelkraut, T.M.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

2005-01-01

Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity

The Development and Coherence of Future-Oriented Behaviors during the Preschool Years

Science.gov (United States)

Atance, Cristina M.; Jackson, Laura K.

2009-01-01

Although previous research has identified a number of interesting aspects of future thinking in adults, little is known about the developmental trajectory and coherence of future-oriented behaviors during early childhood. The primary goal of this study was to explore these issues by administering a battery of tasks assessing different aspects of…

Future of fusion implementation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beardsworth, E.; Powell, J.R.

1978-01-01

For fusion to become available for commercial use in the 21st century, R and D must be undertaken now. But it is hard to justify these expenditures with a cost/benefit oriented assessment methodology, because of both the time-frame and the uncertainty of the future benefits. Focusing on the factors most relevant for current consideration of fusion's commercial prospects, i.e., consumption levels and the outcomes for fission, solar, and coal, many possible futures of the US energy system are posited and analyzed under various assumptions about costs. The Reference Energy System approach was modified to establish both an appropriate degree of detail and explicit time dependence, and a computer code used to organize the relevant data and to perform calculations of system cost (annual and discounted present value), resource use, and residuals that are implied by the consumptions levels and technology mix in each scenario. Not unreasonable scenarios indicate benefits in the form of direct cost savings, which may well exceed R and D costs, which could be attributed to the implementation of fusion

Future climate. Engineering solutions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferdinand, J.F.; Hagedorn-Rasmussen, P.; Fonnesbech, B.

2009-09-15

Future Climate Engineering Solutions - Joint Report is the common output and a documentation of more than 1 year's effort by 13 engineering associations - in 12 countries - to demonstrate how technologies can combat climate change. The report consists of three parts: Summaries of 10 national climate plans and technology prospects, 5 Key Common Findings, and a Climate Call from Engineers to create a new global climate treaty. The basic assumption of the project is recognition that GHG emissions, and their concentration in the atmosphere, must be reduced to a sustainable level. The project definition of a sustainable level is equivalent to the best-case stabilisation scenario which was presented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whereby the global mean temperature is most likely to stabilise at 2.0-2.4 deg. C. The Future Climate website www.futureclimate.info holds more information about the project, including possibility to download project material, including the full national climate plans.

The future since Chernobyl

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warnock, Mary.

1986-01-01

The author reviews three books about energy policy, particularly in relation to nuclear energy. From these, which were all published before the Chernobyl disaster, the reviewer identifies two main problems relating to nuclear energy - immediate safety and disposal of nuclear waste. Risk analysis is seen as unhelpful in allaying public fears as it is the nature of the risk of nuclear accidents, rather than its numerical probability, that is frightening. A paper on the assessment of Best Practical Environmental Options (BPEO) for management of low and intermediate-level solid radioactive waste, is referred to when commenting on nuclear waste disposal. Ordinary people have two political obligations with respect to nuclear energy - first to demand knowledge and examine further reassuring information. Risks taken will then be taken with proper information obtained first. Secondly, to look beyond the short-term consequences of a nuclear programme. To fulfill these obligations policy-makers have to be educated to be open and honest about the nuclear future and to be seen to be looking further ahead than the immediate future. (U.K.)

The Association Between Self-Assessed Future Work Ability and Long-Term Sickness Absence, Disability Pension and Unemployment in a General Working Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lundin, A; Kjellberg, K; Leijon, O; Punnett, L; Hemmingsson, T

2016-06-01

Purpose Work ability is commonly measured with self-assessments, in the form of indices or single items. The validity of these assessments lies in their predictive ability. Prospective studies have reported associations between work ability and sickness absence and disability pension, but few examined why these associations exist. Several correlates of work ability have been reported, but their mechanistic role is largely unknown. This study aims to investigate to what extent individual's own prognosis of work ability predicts labor market participation and whether this was due to individual characteristics and/or working conditions. Methods Self-assessed prognosis of work ability, 2 years from "now," in the Stockholm Public Health Questionnaire (2002-2003) was linked to national registers on sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment up to year 2010. Effects were studied with Cox regression models. Results Of a total of 12,064 individuals 1466 reported poor work ability. There were 299 cases of disability pension, 1466 long-term sickness absence cases and 765 long-term unemployed during follow-up. Poor work ability increased the risk of long-term sickness absence (HR 2.25, CI 95 % 1.97-2.56), disability pension (HR 5.19, CI 95 % 4.07-6.62), and long-term unemployment (HR 2.18, CI 95 % 1.83-2.60). These associations were partially explained by baseline health conditions, physical and (less strongly) psychosocial aspects of working conditions. Conclusions Self-assessed poor ability predicted future long-term sickness absence, disability pension and long-term unemployment. Self-assessed poor work ability seems to be an indicator of future labor market exclusion of different kinds, and can be used in public health monitoring.

Autobiographical memory and episodic future thinking after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Katrine Willemoes; Berntsen, Dorthe

2014-01-01

Converging evidence suggests that autobiographical memory and episodic future thinking share a common neurocognitive basis. Although previous research has shown that traumatic brain injury (TBI) can impair the ability to remember the personal past, episodic future thinking has not previously been...... asked to report a series of events that had happened to them in the past and a series of events that might happen to them in the future. Transcriptions were scored according to a reliable system for categorizing internal (episodic) and external (semantic) information. For each event described......, participants also completed two modified Autobiographical Memory Questionnaire items to assess self-reported phenomenal qualities associated with remembering and imagining. In addition, TBI patients underwent neuropsychological assessment. Results revealed that TBI patients recalled/imagined proportionally...

Modeling Of A Monocular, Full-Color, Laser-Scanning, Helmet-Mounted Display for Aviator Situational Awareness

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-27

Army Aeromedical Research Laboratory P.O. Box 620577 Fort Rucker, AL 36362 USAARL 2017-10 Product Manager for Air Warrior SFAE-SDR-AW 6726 Odyssey Drive ...superimposed over real -world ambient scenes and artificial clutter. It is the idea of modeling HMDs to produce imagery that will in turn be...19 List of Figures 1. HMD Emission Spectra

Jet Fuel Exacerbated Noise-Induced Hearing Loss: Focus on Prediction of Central Auditory Processing Dysfunction

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-01

standard deviation). 4.3.3 Lipid Class Determination for Partition Coefficient Prediction. Research was conducted on methods to quantify...Advancement of Military Medicine Aeromedical Research Department United States Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine Wright-Patterson AFB OH...Report for Oct 2015 to Mar 2017 Air Force Research Laboratory 711th Human Performance Wing Airman Systems Directorate Bioeffects Division

Assessment of the present and future offshore wind power potential: a case study in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast.

Science.gov (United States)

Lizuma, Lita; Avotniece, Zanita; Rupainis, Sergejs; Teilans, Artis

2013-01-01

Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security.

Science.gov (United States)

Kriticos, Darren J; Brunel, Sarah

2016-01-01

Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world's worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management.

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes, an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darren J Kriticos

Full Text Available Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world's worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional

Key issues in space nuclear power challenges for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.

1991-01-01

The future appears rich in missions that will extend the frontiers of knowledge, human presence in space, and opportunities for profitable commerce. Key to the success of these ventures is the availability of plentiful, cost effective electric power and assured, low cost access to space. While forecasts of space power needs are problematic, an assessment of future needs based on terrestrial experience has been made. These needs fall into three broad categories: survival, self sufficiency, and industrialization. The cost of delivering payloads to orbital locations from LEO to Mars has been determined and future launch cost reductions projected. From these factors, then, projections of the performance necessary for future solar and nuclear space power options has been made. These goals are largely dependent upon orbital location and energy storage needs. Finally the cost of present space power systems has been determined and projections made for future systems.

Current and future industrial energy service characterizations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krawiec, F.; Thomas, T.; Jackson, F.; Limaye, D.R.; Isser, S.; Karnofsky, K.; Davis, T.D.

1980-10-01

Current and future energy demands, end uses, and cost used to characterize typical applications and resultant services in the industrial sector of the United States and 15 selected states are examined. A review and evaluation of existing industrial energy data bases was undertaken to assess their potential for supporting SERI research on: (1) market suitability analysis, (2) market development, (3) end-use matching, (3) industrial applications case studies, and (4) identification of cost and performance goals for solar systems and typical information requirements for industrial energy end use. In reviewing existing industrial energy data bases, the level of detail, disaggregation, and primary sources of information were examined. The focus was on fuels and electric energy used for heat and power purchased by the manufacturing subsector and listed by 2-, 3-, and 4-digit SIC, primary fuel, and end use. Projections of state level energy prices to 1990 are developed using the energy intensity approach. The effects of federal and state industrial energy conservation programs on future industrial sector demands were assessed. Future end-use energy requirements were developed for each 4-digit SIC industry and were grouped as follows: (1) hot water, (2) steam (212 to 300/sup 0/F, each 100/sup 0/F interval from 300 to 1000/sup 0/F, and greater than 1000/sup 0/F), and (3) hot air (100/sup 0/F intervals). Volume I details the activities performed in this effort.

The future of psychiatry as clinical neuroscience.

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, Charles F; Lewis, David A; Detre, Thomas; Schatzberg, Alan F; Kupfer, David J

2009-04-01

Psychiatry includes the assessment, treatment, and prevention of complex brain disorders, such as depression, bipolar disorder, anxiety disorders, schizophrenia, developmental disorders (e.g., autism), and neurodegenerative disorders (e.g., Alzheimer dementia). Its core mission is to prevent and alleviate the distress and impairment caused by these disorders, which account for a substantial part of the global burden of illness-related disability. Psychiatry is grounded in clinical neuroscience. Its core mission, now and in the future, is best served within this context because advances in assessment, treatment, and prevention of brain disorders are likely to originate from studies of etiology and pathophysiology based in clinical and translational neuroscience. To ensure its broad public health relevance in the future, psychiatry must also bridge science and service, ensuring that those who need the benefits of its science are also its beneficiaries. To do so effectively, psychiatry as clinical neuroscience must strengthen its partnerships with the disciplines of public health (including epidemiology), community and behavioral health science, and health economics.The authors present a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis of psychiatry and identify strategies for strengthening its future and increasing its relevance to public health and the rest of medicine. These strategies encompass new approaches to strengthening the relationship between psychiatry and neurology, financing psychiatry's mission, emphasizing early and sustained multidisciplinary training (research and clinical), bolstering the academic infrastructure, and reorganizing and refinancing mental health services both for preventive intervention and cost-effective chronic disease management.

The Future of Psychiatry as Clinical Neuroscience

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, Charles F.; Lewis, David A.; Detre, Thomas; Schatzberg, Alan F.; Kupfer, David J.

2009-01-01

Psychiatry includes the assessment, treatment, and prevention of complex brain disorders, such as depression, bipolar disorder, anxiety disorders, schizophrenia, developmental disorders (e.g., autism), and neurodegenerative disorders (e.g., Alzheimer dementia). Its core mission is to prevent and alleviate the distress and impairment caused by these disorders, which account for a substantial part of the global burden of illness-related disability. Psychiatry is grounded in clinical neuroscience. Its core mission, now and in the future, is best served within this context because advances in assessment, treatment, and prevention of brain disorders are likely to originate from studies of etiology and pathophysiology based in clinical and translational neuroscience. To ensure its broad public health relevance in the future, psychiatry must also bridge science and service, ensuring that those who need the benefits of its science are also its beneficiaries. To do so effectively, psychiatry as clinical neuroscience must strengthen its partnerships with the disciplines of public health (including epidemiology), community and behavioral health science, and health economics. The authors present a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis of psychiatry and identify strategies for strengthening its future and increasing its relevance to public health and the rest of medicine. These strategies encompass new approaches to strengthening the relationship between psychiatry and neurology, financing psychiatry’s mission, emphasizing early and sustained multidisciplinary training (research and clinical), bolstering the academic infrastructure, and reorganizing and refinancing mental health services both for preventive intervention and cost-effective chronic disease management. PMID:19318776

The Future of Preschool Prevention, Assessment, and Intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudziak, Jim; Archangeli, Christopher

2017-07-01

Preschoolers are in the most rapid period of brain development. Environment shapes the structure and function of the developing brain. Promoting brain health requires cultivation of healthy environments at home, school, and in the community. This improves the emotional-behavioral and physical health of all children, can prevent problems in children at risk, and can alter the trajectory of children already suffering. For clinicians, this starts with assessing and treating the entire family, equipping parents with the principles of parent management training, and incorporating wellness prescriptions for nutrition, physical activity, music, and mindfulness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Outcome in Hypospadias Surgery - A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander eSpringer

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Hypospadias is a challenging field of urogenital reconstructive surgery with different techniques being currently used. Modern surgery claims that it is possible to create a functionally and cosmetically normal penis. Continuous reevaluation and assessment of outcome may have a major impact on future clinical practice. Assessment of outcome includes: complication rate, cosmetic appearance of the penis, functional outcome (micturition, sexuality and psychological factors such as quality of life and psychosexual life. This article briefly reviews current strategies of outcome assessment and outlines that in the future long-term assessment should be designed in web-based prospective studies multicenter studies. Somehow in the future we will be able to give an accurate estimation of the long-term consequences of being born with hypospadias.

The potential natural vegetation of eastern Africa distribution, conservation and future changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Breugel, Paulo

and sustainable management of the natural environment. There is therefore an urgent need for information that allow us to assess the current status of the region’s natural environment and to predict how this may change under future climates. This thesis aims to improve our knowledge on natural vegetation...... and how this is likely to change under different climate change scenarios. Chapter 4 presents an environmental gap analysis to prioritize conservation efforts in eastern Africa, based on an evaluation of the environmental representativeness of protected areas and an assessment of the level of threat...... distribution in eastern African, examine how this may change under future climates, and how this can be used to identify conservation priorities in the region. Chapter 1 presents a brief overview of the concept of the potential natural vegetation (PNV), synthesizes the general findings and discusses future...

Assessing behavioural and cognitive domains of autism spectrum disorders in rodents: current status and future perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Kas, Martien J; Glennon, Jeffrey C; Buitelaar, Jan; Ey, Elodie; Biemans, Barbara; Crawley, Jacqueline; Ring, Robert H; Lajonchere, Clara; Esclassan, Frederic; Talpos, John; Noldus, Lucas P J J; Burbach, J Peter H; Steckler, Thomas

2014-03-01

The establishment of robust and replicable behavioural testing paradigms with translational value for psychiatric diseases is a major step forward in developing and testing etiology-directed treatment for these complex disorders. Based on the existing literature, we have generated an inventory of applied rodent behavioural testing paradigms relevant to autism spectrum disorders (ASD). This inventory focused on previously used paradigms that assess behavioural domains that are affected in ASD, such as social interaction, social communication, repetitive behaviours and behavioural inflexibility, cognition as well as anxiety behaviour. A wide range of behavioural testing paradigms for rodents were identified. However, the level of face and construct validity is highly variable. The predictive validity of these paradigms is unknown, as etiology-directed treatments for ASD are currently not on the market. To optimise these studies, future efforts should address aspects of reproducibility and take into account data about the neurodevelopmental underpinnings and trajectory of ASD. In addition, with the increasing knowledge of processes underlying ASD, such as sensory information processes and synaptic plasticity, phenotyping efforts should include multi-level automated analysis of, for example, representative task-related behavioural and electrophysiological read-outs.

Aeromedical Aspects of Melatonin-An Overview

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Sanders, Donald

1998-01-01

.... This variation has suggested the possibility of a regulatory function in day/night dependent physiological processes, such as sleep, and has led scientists to explore the effects of administered...

Aeromedical transport after acute myocardial infarction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seidelin, Jakob B; Bruun, Niels Eske; Nielsen, Henrik

2009-01-01

or exercise electrocardiogram. Patients at high risk were treated locally if appropriate facilities were available or evacuated to the nearest heart center. Patients at low risk were allowed to fly unescorted home if no other concomitant diseases needed the attention of a physician. The composite end point...... of death of any cause during transport or departure from the planned repatriation due to worsening of the condition was registered. RESULTS: No patients reached the end point. Patients who were not risk evaluated more often needed escort (p ... post-AMI complications (p travel unescorted after AMI if their risk of ischemia is low as determined by risk stratification examination prior to repatriation....

Urgent Aeromedical Evacuation Network Capacity Planning

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-01

What if AMC had one strategically positioned AC for the Urgent / Priority AE mission and the redistribution needs they encounter? This idea stems ...KtMI~rAFB _~...,_ Po~AFB ;------------~ Service Tirr~e Estimates I CO\\" CLl "SIO\\" • C-378 performs bestfrom a cost perspective • Contracted

Adapt or Perish: Aeromedical Evacuation in the Contested Air Space of the Pacific Theater

Science.gov (United States)

2016-08-01

British Citizenship .57 These examples aside, and in most cases, due to the realist nature of most states and the anarchistic way of the world, the...Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2003. Kubrick, Stanley. Full Metal Jacket. Warner Bros. 118 min., 1987. Digital Video Disk. Lowe

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2018-01-02

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use service demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Winsemius, H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/14749799X; Jongman, B.; Ward, P.J.; Bouwman, A.

2013-01-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and

Characterization of future drought conditions in the Lower Mekong River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madusanka Thilakarathne

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This study evaluates future changes to drought characteristics in the Lower Mekong River Basin using climate model projections. The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB, covering Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, is vulnerable to increasing droughts. Univariate analysis was employed in this study to compare drought characteristics associated with different return periods for the historical period 1964–2005 and future scenarios (RCP 4.5 2016–2057, RCP 4.5 2058–2099, RCP 8.5 2016–2057 and RCP 8.5 2058–2099. Because a single drought event is defined by several correlated characteristics, drought risk assessment by a multivariate analysis was deemed appropriate, and a multivariate analysis of droughts was conducted using copula functions to investigate the differences in the trivariate joint occurrence probabilities of the historical period and future scenarios. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI was selected as the drought index because of its ability to detect and compare metrological droughts across time and space scales. Historical precipitation data from 1964 to 2005 and future precipitation projections from 2016 to 2099 for 15 global circulation models (GCMs obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP dataset were employed. In all future scenarios, the Lower LMB and 3S subbasins were expected to experience more severe and intense droughts. The multivariate drought risk assessment revealed an increase in drought risks in the LMB. However, the Chi-Mun subbasin may experience an alleviation of future drought characteristics. Because the basin was expected to experience an increase in average monthly precipitation in most months, the variability in magnitude suggested that the LMB region requires adaptation strategies to address future drought occurrences.

Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Yuan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.

Point-of-care ultrasound in aerospace medicine: known and potential applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Michael S; Garcia, Kathleen; Martin, David S

2014-07-01

Since its initial introduction into the bedside assessment of the trauma patient via the Focused Assessment with Sonography for Trauma (FAST) exam, the use of point-of-care ultrasound has expanded rapidly. A growing body of literature demonstrates ultrasound can be used by nonradiologists as an extension of the physical exam to accurately diagnose or exclude a variety of conditions. These conditions include, but are not limited to, hemoperitoneum, pneumothorax, pulmonary edema, long-bone fracture, deep vein thrombosis, and elevated intracranial pressure. As ultrasound machines have become more compact and portable, their use has extended outside of hospitals to places where the physical exam and diagnostic capabilities may be limited, including the aviation environment. A number of studies using focused sonography have been performed to meet the diagnostic challenges of space medicine. The following article reviews the available literature on portable ultrasound use in aerospace medicine and highlights both known and potential applications of point-of-care ultrasound for the aeromedical clinician.

Surviving the future academic libraries, quality and assessment

CERN Document Server

Munde, Gail

2009-01-01

Every academic library strives to make improvements - in its services, its effectiveness, and its contributions to overall university success. Every librarian wants to improve library quality, but few are knowledgeable or enthusiastic about the means and mechanisms of quality improvement. This book assists librarians to make sense of data collection, assessment, and comparative evaluation as stepping stones to transformative quality improvement. Creating value lies in a library's ability to understand, communicate and measure what matters to users, and what can be measured can be managed to successful outcomes. Complex and fragmented subject matter is synthesized into clear and logical presentation Focuses on current research and best practices International in scope.

Future orientation and suicide ideation and attempts in depressed adults ages 50 and over.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Jameson K; Duberstein, Paul R; Conner, Kenneth R; Heisel, Marnin J; Beckman, Anthony; Franus, Nathan; Conwell, Yeates

2006-09-01

The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that future orientation is associated with lower levels of suicide ideation and lower likelihood of suicide attempt in a sample of patients in treatment for major depression. Two hundred two participants (116 female, 57%) ages 50-88 years were recruited from inpatient and outpatient settings. All were diagnosed with major depression using a structured diagnostic interview. Suicide ideation was assessed with the Scale for Suicide Ideation (both current and worst point ratings), and a measure of future orientation was created to assess future expectancies. The authors predicted that greater future orientation would be associated with less current and worst point suicide ideation, and would distinguish current and lifetime suicide attempters from nonattempters. Hypotheses were tested using multivariate logistic regression and linear regression analyses that accounted for age, gender, hopelessness, and depression. As hypothesized, higher future orientation scores were associated with lower current suicidal ideation, less intense suicidal ideation at its worst point, and lower probability of a history of attempted suicide after accounting for covariates. Future orientation was not associated with current attempt status. Future orientation holds promise as a cognitive variable associated with decreased suicide risk; a better understanding of its putative protective role is needed. Treatments designed to enhance future orientation might decrease suicide risk.

Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floortje; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

2014-01-01

Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergydepend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirectland use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1)projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and theeffect on other land uses in

Technology Assessment for Future MILSATCOM Systems; An Update of the EHF Bands

Science.gov (United States)

1980-10-01

converging these efforts, the MSO has prepared a "Technology Development Program Plan" ( TDPP ). The TOPP defines a coordinated approach to the R&D...required to insure the availability of the technology necessary to support future systems. Some of the objectives of the TDPP are: to minimize...and TDPP have illuminated the need for technology development efforts directed toward minimizing the cost- risk and schedule-risk, and insuring the

The New Russian Budget System; A Critical Assessment and Future Reform Agenda

OpenAIRE

Jack Diamond

2002-01-01

This paper documents the main elements of the new budget system established in the Russian Federation through its revised budget system law, or the Budget Code, of 2000. It critically examines the budget preparation, budget approval, and budget execution processes, as well as the financial management and planning procedures that underlie the Budget Code. Based on this analysis, recent developments are discussed and a future reform agenda is indicated.

Fit between Future Thinking and Future Orientation on Creative Imagination

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Fa-Chung

2012-01-01

The purpose of the current study is to investigate the impact of future thinking, and the fit between future thinking and future orientation on creative thinking. In Study 1, 83 undergraduates were randomly assigned to three groups: 50-year future thinking, 5-year future thinking, and the present-day thinking. First, the priming tasks, in which…

Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

2018-01-01

Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

A sunny future: expert elicitation of China's solar photovoltaic technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Long T.; Branstetter, Lee; Azevedo, Inês L.

2018-03-01

China has emerged as the global manufacturing center for solar photovoltaic (PV) products. Chinese firms have entered all stages of the supply chain, producing most of the installed solar modules around the world. Meanwhile, production costs are at record lows. The decisions that Chinese solar producers make today will influence the path for the solar industry and its role towards de-carbonization of global energy systems in the years to come. However, to date, there have been no assessments of the future costs and efficiency of solar PV systems produced by the Chinese PV industry. We perform an expert elicitation to assess the technological and non-technological factors that led to the success of China’s silicon PV industry as well as likely future costs and performance. Experts evaluated key metrics such as efficiency, costs, and commercial viability of 17 silicon and non-silicon solar PV technologies by 2030. Silicon-based technologies will continue to be the mainstream product for large-scale electricity generation application in the near future, with module efficiency reaching as high as 23% and production cost as low as 0.24/W. The levelized cost of electricity for solar will be around 34/MWh, allowing solar PV to be competitive with traditional energy resources like coal. The industry’s future developments may be affected by overinvestment, overcapacity, and singular short-term focus.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

Developing a phenological model for grapevine to assess future frost risk in Luxembourg

Science.gov (United States)

Caffarra, A.; Molitor, D.; Pertot, I.; Sinigoy, P.; Junk, J.

2012-04-01

Late frost damage represents a significant hazard to grape production in cool climate viticulture regions such as Luxembourg. The main aim of our study is to analyze the frequency of these events for the Luxembourg's winegrowing region in the future. Spring frost injuries on grape may occur when young green parts are exposed to air temperature below 0°C. The potential risk is determined by: (i) minimum air temperature conditions and the (ii) the timing of bud burst. Therefore, we developed and validated a model for budburst of the grapevine (*Vitis vinifera)* cultivar Rivaner, the most grown local variety, based on multi-annual data from 7 different sites across Europe and the US. An advantage of this approach is, that it could be applied to a wide range of climate conditions. Higher spring temperatures were projected for the future and could lead to earlier dates of budburst as well as earlier dates of last frost events in the season. However, so far it is unknown if this will increase or decrease the risk of severe late frost damages for Luxembourg's winegrowing region. To address this question results of 10 regional climate change projections from the FP6 ENSEMBLES project (spatial resolution = 25km; A1B emission scenario) were combined with the new bud burst model. The use of a multi model ensemble of climate change projections allows for a better quantification of the uncertainties. A bias corrections scheme, based on local observations, was applied to the model output. Projected daily minimum air temperatures, up to 2098, were compared to the projected date of bud burst in order to quantify the future frost risk for Luxembourg.

Use of Ground Motion Simulations of a Historical Earthquake for the Assessment of Past and Future Urban Risks

Science.gov (United States)

Kentel, E.; Çelik, A.; karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.

2017-12-01

Erzincan city located in the Eastern part of Turkey at the conjunction of three active faults is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. In addition to several historical events, this city has experienced one of the largest earthquakes during the last century: The 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) event. With limited knowledge of the tectonic structure by then, the city center was relocated to the North after the 1939 earthquake by almost 5km, indeed closer to the existing major strike slip fault. This decision coupled with poor construction technologies, led to severe damage during a later event that occurred on 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6). The 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms whereas the 1992 event was only recorded by 3 nearby stations. There are empirical isoseismal maps from both events indicating indirectly the spatial distribution of the damage. In this study, we focus on this region and present a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the different components of uncertainties involved in the assessment and mitigation of seismic risk in urban areas. For this initial attempt, ground motion simulation of the 1939 event is performed to obtain the anticipated ground motions and shaking intensities. Using these quantified results along with the spatial distribution of the observed damage, the relocation decision is assessed and suggestions are provided for future large earthquakes to minimize potential earthquake risks.

Systems Thinking for Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment: A Review of Recent Developments, Applications, and Future Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nuri Cihat Onat

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Tracking the environmental impacts of production, use, and disposal of products (e.g., goods, and services have been an important issue in the global economy. Although Life Cycle Assessment (LCA is a widely applied method to track these environmental impacts and support policies, it has certain limitations and an isolated way of evaluating the environmental impacts with no consideration of social and economic impacts and mechanisms. To overcome the limits of current LCA, three mechanisms have been proposed in the literature: (1 broadening the indicators by including social and economic indicators in addition to the environmental impacts; (2 broadening the scope of analysis from product-level assessment to national and global levels; (3 deepening the assessment by inclusion of more mechanisms to account for interrelations among the system elements, uncertainty analysis, stakeholder involvement, etc. With these developments, LCA has been evolving into a new framework called Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA. Practical application of LCSA requires integration of various methods, tools, and disciplines. In this study, a comprehensive literature review is conducted to investigate recent developments, current challenges, and future perspectives in the LCSA literature. According to the review, a high number (40% of LCSA studies are from the environmental science discipline, while contributions from other disciplines such as economics (3% and social sciences (9% are very low. On broadening the scope of analysis, 58% of the studies are product-level works, while 37% quantified the impacts at national level and achieved an economy-wide analysis, and only 5% of the studies were able to quantify the global impacts of products using LCSA framework. Furthermore, current applications of LCSA have not considered the rebound effects, feedback mechanisms, and interrelations of the system of interest sufficiently. To address these challenges, we present a

Current Assessment and Future Outlook for Water Resources Considering Climate Change and a Population Burst: A Case Study of Ciliwung River, Jakarta City, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pankaj Kumar

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Modeling insecurity under future climate change and socio-economic development is indispensable for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This case study strives to assess the water quality and quantity status for both the present and the near future in the Ciliwung River basin inside the Jakarta Province under different scenarios using population growth with planned additional wastewater management infrastructure by 2030 as mentioned in the local master plan, and comparing the above conditions with the addition of the effects of climate change. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD, chemical oxygen demand (COD and nitrate (NO3, the three important indicators of aquatic ecosystem health, were simulated to assess river pollution. Simulation results suggest that water quality in year 2030 will further deteriorate compared to the base year 2000 due to population growth and climate change, even considering the planned wastewater management infrastructure. The magnitude of impact from population growth is far greater than that from climate change. Simulated values of NO3, BOD and COD ranged from 6.07 to 13.34 mg/L, 7.65 to 11.41 mg/L, and 20.16 to 51.01 mg/L, respectively. Almost all of the water quality parameters exceeded the safe limit suitable for a healthy aquatic system, especially for the year 2030. The situation of water quality is worse for the downstream sampling location because of the cumulative effect of transport of untreated pollutants coming from upstream, as well as local dumping. This result will be useful for local policy makers and stakeholders involved in the water sector to formulate strategic and adaptive policies and plan for the future. One of the potential policy interventions is to implement a national integrated sewerage and septage management program on a priority basis, considering various factors like population density and growth, and global changes for both short- and long-term measures.

FutureTox III: Bridges for Translation | Science Inventory | US ...

Science.gov (United States)

The present document describes key discussion points and outcomes of a Society of Toxicology (SOT) Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology (CCT) Workshop, entitled FutureTox III1,2 that was held in Crystal City, Virginia, November 19-20, 2015. The workshop built on the many lessons learned from the first 10 years of TT21 and the first two workshops in the FutureTox series (for summary of FutureTox II see (Knudsen et al., 2015); for summary of FutureTox I see (Rowlands et al., 2014)). FutureTox III was attended in person and via webcast by more than 300 scientists from government research and regulatory agencies, research institutes, academia, and the chemical and pharmaceutical industries in Europe, Canada, and the United States. The meeting materials for FutureTox III, currently available to meeting registrants at http://www.toxicology.org/events/shm/cct/meetings.asp#upcoming-pnl-open, will be open to the public on November 29, 2016. At this workshop, participants reviewed and discussed the state of the science in toxicology and human risk and exposure assessment with a focus on moving TT21 science into the arena of regulatory decision-making. This manuscript describes the outcome of the FutureTox III 'contemporary concepts in toxicology' conference of the Society Toxicology, held November 2015 in Crystal City VA.

The role of minimum supply and social vulnerability assessment for governing critical infrastructure failure: current gaps and future agenda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Garschagen

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Increased attention has lately been given to the resilience of critical infrastructure in the context of natural hazards and disasters. The major focus therein is on the sensitivity of critical infrastructure technologies and their management contingencies. However, strikingly little attention has been given to assessing and mitigating social vulnerabilities towards the failure of critical infrastructure and to the development, design and implementation of minimum supply standards in situations of major infrastructure failure. Addressing this gap and contributing to a more integrative perspective on critical infrastructure resilience is the objective of this paper. It asks which role social vulnerability assessments and minimum supply considerations can, should and do – or do not – play for the management and governance of critical infrastructure failure. In its first part, the paper provides a structured review on achievements and remaining gaps in the management of critical infrastructure and the understanding of social vulnerabilities towards disaster-related infrastructure failures. Special attention is given to the current state of minimum supply concepts with a regional focus on policies in Germany and the EU. In its second part, the paper then responds to the identified gaps by developing a heuristic model on the linkages of critical infrastructure management, social vulnerability and minimum supply. This framework helps to inform a vision of a future research agenda, which is presented in the paper's third part. Overall, the analysis suggests that the assessment of socially differentiated vulnerabilities towards critical infrastructure failure needs to be undertaken more stringently to inform the scientifically and politically difficult debate about minimum supply standards and the shared responsibilities for securing them.

The role of minimum supply and social vulnerability assessment for governing critical infrastructure failure: current gaps and future agenda

Science.gov (United States)

Garschagen, Matthias; Sandholz, Simone

2018-04-01

Increased attention has lately been given to the resilience of critical infrastructure in the context of natural hazards and disasters. The major focus therein is on the sensitivity of critical infrastructure technologies and their management contingencies. However, strikingly little attention has been given to assessing and mitigating social vulnerabilities towards the failure of critical infrastructure and to the development, design and implementation of minimum supply standards in situations of major infrastructure failure. Addressing this gap and contributing to a more integrative perspective on critical infrastructure resilience is the objective of this paper. It asks which role social vulnerability assessments and minimum supply considerations can, should and do - or do not - play for the management and governance of critical infrastructure failure. In its first part, the paper provides a structured review on achievements and remaining gaps in the management of critical infrastructure and the understanding of social vulnerabilities towards disaster-related infrastructure failures. Special attention is given to the current state of minimum supply concepts with a regional focus on policies in Germany and the EU. In its second part, the paper then responds to the identified gaps by developing a heuristic model on the linkages of critical infrastructure management, social vulnerability and minimum supply. This framework helps to inform a vision of a future research agenda, which is presented in the paper's third part. Overall, the analysis suggests that the assessment of socially differentiated vulnerabilities towards critical infrastructure failure needs to be undertaken more stringently to inform the scientifically and politically difficult debate about minimum supply standards and the shared responsibilities for securing them.

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, Jonathan M.; Lopez, Jose R.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Young, Charles A.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2017-01-01

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Rethinking Rwandan higher education assessment system and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Annestar

their assessment practices serve, and to understand the intended and unintended effects assessments can have on students' learning. This paper .... Assessment for. Learning. Information for students' future learning and teachers' instructional decisions. External standards or expectations. Teacher, student. Assessment as.

Future of antibody purification.

Science.gov (United States)

Low, Duncan; O'Leary, Rhona; Pujar, Narahari S

2007-03-15

Antibody purification seems to be safely ensconced in a platform, now well-established by way of multiple commercialized antibody processes. However, natural evolution compels us to peer into the future. This is driven not only by a large, projected increase in the number of antibody therapies, but also by dramatic improvements in upstream productivity, and process economics. Although disruptive technologies have yet escaped downstream processes, evolution of the so-called platform is already evident in antibody processes in late-stage development. Here we perform a wide survey of technologies that are competing to be part of that platform, and provide our [inherently dangerous] assessment of those that have the most promise.

Combating Terrorism Technology Support Office 2006 Review

Science.gov (United States)

2006-01-01

of Veterinary Medicine , Auburn Myers and Associates, Auburn Sparta, Inc., Huntsville U.S. Army Aeromedical Research Laboratory, Fort Rucker arizoNa...disguised handwritings, and writing in different languages and character sets. Develop software to identify counterfeit documents and match...of Medicine and Surgery – Naval Air Warfare Center – Naval Criminal Investigative Service – Naval Explosive Ordnance Disposal Fleet Liaison

Linking global scenarios to national assessments: Experiences from the Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Linda L. Langner; Peter J. Ince

2012-01-01

The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment provides a nationally consistent analysis of the status and trends of the Nation's renewable forest resources. A global scenario approach was taken for the 2010 RPA Assessment to provide a shared world view of potential futures. The RPA Assessment scenarios were linked to the global scenarios and climate projections used...

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss

Science.gov (United States)

Visconti, Piero; Pressey, Robert L.; Giorgini, Daniele; Maiorano, Luigi; Bakkenes, Michel; Boitani, Luigi; Alkemade, Rob; Falcucci, Alessandra; Chiozza, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo

2011-01-01

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world. PMID:21844048

RELATION BETWEEN QUALITY OF LIFE, CHOICE MAKING, AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS IN ADULTS WITH INTELLECTUAL DISABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vesna KOSTIKJ-IVANOVIKJ

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Quality of life of individuals depends significantly on the ability to have control over everyday life, realized through the freedom to make choices from available options and self-determination. Objective: To determine the correlation between possibilities for making choices and expectations for the future with the quality of life in adults with intellectual disabilities according self-assessment and assessment by others. Methods: Descriptive, method of correlation and comparative analysis ware applied. From techniques, analysis of documents, surveys with the Quality of life questionnaire by Schalock and Keith and Questionnaire for expectations for the future by Speck, and scaling with the Scale for assessment of the opportunities for making choices by Kishi et al. Sample consisted of 130 intellectually disabled adults and 130 proxies. For establishing connection between the examined phenomena Pearson correlation coefficient (r was used, at p<0,01. Results: There is a strong correlation between the results obtained from the questionnaires about quality of life and opportunities for making choices, self-assessment r(130=0,497, p<0,01, assessment by others r(130=0,482, p<0,01. There is a correlation between the results obtained from the questionnaires about quality of life and expectations for the future, but not very strong, self-assessment r(130=0,233, p=0,008<0,01, assessment by others r(130=0,305, p<0,01. Conclusion: There is a correlation between opportunities for making choices and expectations for the future with the quality of life in adults with intellectual disabilities. To improve the quality of life in these individuals, it is necessary to design programs that will develop self-concept, abilities for self-determination and making personal choices.

The Future of Contrast-Enhanced Mammography.

Science.gov (United States)

Covington, Matthew F; Pizzitola, Victor J; Lorans, Roxanne; Pockaj, Barbara A; Northfelt, Donald W; Appleton, Catherine M; Patel, Bhavika K

2018-02-01

The purpose of this article is to discuss facilitators of and barriers to future implementation of contrast-enhanced mammography (CEM) in the United States. CEM provides low-energy 2D mammographic images analogous to digital mammography and contrast-enhanced recombined images that allow assessment of neovascularity similar to that offered by MRI. The utilization of CEM in the United States is currently low but could increase rapidly given the many potential indications for its clinical use.

World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

2013-01-01

The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Application of Temperature Index Model to Assess the Future Hydrological Regime of the Glacierized Catchments in Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Kayastha, R.; Kayastha, R. B.

2017-12-01

Unavailability of hydro meteorological data in the Himalayan regions is challenging on understanding the flow regimes. Temperature index model is simple yet the powerful glacio-hydrological model to simulate the discharge in the glacierized basin. Modified Positive Degree Day (MPDD) Model Version 2.0 is a grid-ded based semi distributed model with baseflow module is a robust melt modelling tools to estimate the discharge. MPDD model uses temperature and precipitation as a forcing datasets to simulate the discharge and also to obtain the snowmelt, icemelt, rain and baseflow contribution on total discharge. In this study two glacierized, Marsyangdi and Langtang catchment were investigated for the future hydrological regimes. Marsyangdi encompasses an area of 4026.19 sq. km with 20% glaciated area, whereas Langtang catchment with area of 354.64 sq. km with 36% glaciated area is studied to examine for the future climatic scenarios. The model simulates discharge well for the observed period; (1992-1998) in Marsyangdi and from (2007-2013) in Langtang catchment. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for the both catchment were above 0.75 with the volume difference less than - 8 %. The snow and ice melts contribution in Marsyangdi were 4.7% and 10.2% whereas in Langtang the contribution is 15.3% and 23.4%, respectively. Rain contribution ( 40%) is higher than the baseflow contribution in total discharge in both basins. The future river discharge is also predicted using the future climate data from the regional climate models (RCMs) of CORDEX South Asia experiments for the medium stabilization scenario RCP4.5 and very high radiative forcing scenario RCP8.5 after bias correction. The projected future discharge of both catchment shows slightly increase in both scenarios with increase of snow and ice melt contribution on discharge. The result generated from the model can be utilized to understand the future hydrological regimes of the glacierized catchment also the impact of

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Electricity distribution within the future residence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Breeze, J.E.

1981-11-01

This study examined present residential wiring systems and identified their shortcomings. A list of the desirable attributes for future wiring systems is proposed. The outlook for the application to wiring systems of solid-state electronic devices is assessed. As further background for a proposed new wiring concept, the residential use of energy today and probable future trends are reviewed. Lastly, the concept of a distributed bus is proposed and developed on a conceptual basis for the residential wiring system of the future. The distributed bus concept can lead to the development of a residential wiring system to meet the following requirements: adaptable to meet probable future energy requirements for residences including alternative energy sources and energy storage; flexibility for servicing loads both in respect to location in the residence and to the size of the load; improved economy in the use of materials; capability for development as a designed or engineered system with factory assembled components and wiring harness; capability for expansion through the attachment of legs or auxillary rings; adaptable to any probable architectural residential development; capability for development to meet the requirements for ease of use and maintenance and with recognition of the growing importance of do-it-yourself repairs and alterations; and adaptable to the full range of solid-state electronics and micro-computer devices and controls including the concept of load control and management through the use of a central control module. 66 refs., 15 figs., 1 tab.

Coastal flooding in Denmark – future outlook

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, C.; Knudsen, P.; Andersen, O. B.

2014-01-01

Water loading from all directions due to river discharge, precipitation, groundwater and the sea state (i.e. mean and extreme water levels) need to be carefully considered when dealing with flooding hazards at the coast. Flooding hazard and risk mapping are major topics in low-lying coastal are- ...... this knowledge together to enable a practice-oriented methodology that combines their effects and future sea extremes in hazard and risk mapping and climate change adaptation schemes in Denmark......- as before even considering the adverse effects of climate change and sea level rise (SLR). From an assessment of Danish sea extremes from historical evidence, tide gauge series, and space measurements, we discuss the current and future hazards, exposure, and vulnerability to flooding along the diverse......, land-use, protection measures a.o. that must be taken into account in order to evaluate current and future flooding hazards and management options. We provide examples from Danish case-studies underlining the necessity of including these factors and we outline an interdisciplinary approach to bring...

Sources, availability and costs of future energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hart, R.G.

1977-08-01

An attempt is made to put the future energy scene in perspective by quantitatively examining energy resources, energy utilization and energy costs. Available data on resources show that conventional oil and gas are in short supply and that alternative energy sources are going to have to replace oil and gas in the not too distant future. Cost/applications assessments indicate that a mix of energy sources are likely to best meet our energy needs of the future. Hydro, nuclear and coal are all practical alternatives for meeting electrical needs and electricity is a practical alternative for space heating. Coal appears to be the most practical alternative for meeting much of the industrial energy need and frontier oil or oil from the tar sands appear to be the most practical alternatives for meeting the transportation need. Solar energy shows promise of meeting some of the space heating load in Canada if economical energy storage systems can be developed. The general conclusion is that the basic energy problem is energy conversion. (author)

The development of episodic future thinking in middle childhood.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferretti, F; Chiera, A; Nicchiarelli, S; Adornetti, I; Magni, R; Vicari, S; Valeri, G; Marini, A

2018-02-01

The ability to imagine future events (episodic future thinking-EFT) emerges in preschoolers and further improves during middle childhood and adolescence. In the present study, we focused on the possible cognitive factors that affect EFT and its development. We assessed the ability to mentally project forward in time of a large cohort of 135 6- to 11-year-old children through a task with minimal narrative demands (the Picture Book Trip task adapted from Atance and Meltzoff in Cogn Dev 20(3):341-361. doi:10.1016/j.cogdev.2005.05.001, 2005) in order to avoid potential linguistic effects on children's performance. The results showed that this task can be used to assess the development of EFT at least until the age of 8. Furthermore, EFT scores correlated with measures of phonological short-term and verbal working memory. These results support the possibility that cognitive factors such as working memory play a key role in EFT.

Valuing future citizens' values regarding risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, Patricia [Creighton Univ., Omaha (United States). College of Arts and Sciences/Philosophy

2006-09-15

Valuing present citizen's values regarding the risks they face is an important aspect of risk assessment and risk acceptability. Conferences like VALDOR are held for this reason. Governments like Sweden have national referendums on various risk-prone enterprises. The results of these referendums can determine the future of these programs. In the United States, when guidelines are set for determining acceptable levels of risk, the relevant federal agencies are often required to provide a comment period regarding proposed guidelines in order to ascertain the judgments, including the weights place on certain values, of individual members of society as well as stakeholder groups. After the comment period ends, the agency decides on the acceptable level of risk, taking into account the comments from present citizens. Do we also have a duty to value the not-yet-existing values of future citizens, especially if the risks created by the activities of present citizens extend into the future to citizens not yet living? If so, are there any circumstances which entitle us to de-value those not-yet-existing values. In this paper, I ground my discussion of the question of valuing future citizens' values in one of the areas of focus of the VALDOR conference: nuclear waste management and specifically the question facing the United States' program regarding an acceptable dose standard associated with the release of radioactivity into the biosphere from an underground repository. The underlying conference theme to which this discussion may be attached is community environmental justice as it applies to future citizens. I focus on the role that uncertainty plays is providing justice between present and future citizens.

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transporation systems. Volume 2: Identification of issues affecting intercity transportation

Science.gov (United States)

1976-01-01

Papers on major issues and trends that affect the future of intercity transportation are presented. Specific areas covered include: political, social, technological, institutional, and economic mechanisms, the workings of which determine how future intercity transporation technologies will evolve and be put into service; the major issues of intercity transportation from the point of view of reform, including candidate transporation technologies; and technical analysis of trends affecting the evolution of intercity transportation technologies.

The Future Multiple

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)