WorldWideScience

Sample records for future aeromedical assessment

  1. Flying High: The Aeromedical Aspects of Marihuana

    Science.gov (United States)

    A summary of the discussions from the Civil Aeromedical Institute Symposium on aeromedical aspects of marihuana is presented. The invited panel...discussed the legal aspects of marihuana use and aviation, the experiences of military aviation, and the acute and chronic effects of the drug. For civil...aviation, the panel proposed a 12-16 hour period between marihuana use and work in aviation, no radical changes in FAA policy towards marihuana use, and additional research on aeromedical aspects of marihuana .

  2. Aeromedical certification of aircrew and controllers with renal calculi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drane, A Michael C; Navathe, Pooshan; Clem, Peter

    2013-10-01

    Acute renal colic is an incapacitating condition. Advances in understanding the pathogenesis of calculi and their detection and treatment require a new approach to aeromedical risk assessment. Can this new information support the stratification of aeromedical risk into "High" and "Low" categories, and fulfill the paramount responsibility of the Civil Aviation Safety Authority, Australia's aviation regulator, which isthe maintenance of aviation safety? This article reviews the epidemiology of calculi and finds 2-10% annual risk of a symptomatic event following incidental detection of a calculus. While calculi 4 mm or less in size may not require surgical intervention, this does not equate to a pain-free passage. Similarly, calculus recurrence rates may vary in different anatomical locations, but no location can be considered "safe." The recognition of parenchymal calcification and Randall's plaques as precursors to the development of calculi places such individuals at elevated risk of developing calculi. More recently evidence has supported a link between metabolic syndrome and calculus formation. In an occupational group where there is potential for elevated radiation exposure, appropriate imaging is of particular importance. CT, X-ray, and ultrasound modalities are reviewed with recommendations presented for aeromedical assessment and surveillance based on identification of those at high risk of colic and minimization of investigational radiation exposure.

  3. Ludolph Brauer, German aeromedical pioneer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Viktor

    2004-08-01

    Ludolph Brauer (1865-1951) played an influential role in the history of aviation medicine in Germany. The Treaty of Versailles had put a stop to the development of German aviation and associated medical activities at the end of World War I. Brauer deserves credit for restarting civilian aviation medicine in Germany in the 1920s, paving the way for it to flourish in the 1930s. As Medical Director of the Hamburg-Eppendorf General Hospital, Brauer established the first German Institute of Aviation Medicine (GIAM) in 1927 in affiliation with the Tuberculosis Research Institute with its two large pneumatic chambers. The GIAM was active in altitude research and the selection of pilots, as well as educating medical students in aviation medicine, training Aviation Medical Examiners, and exploring clinical applications of hypobaric and climatic therapy. Brauer was forced to retire in 1934 for political reasons as the GIAM came under the influence of the military; in 1939 it was made part of the Aeromedical Research Institute of the "Reichsluftfahrt" Ministry. Brauer was a co-editor of the journal Luftfahrtmedizin in the 1930s and 1940s. He died in Munich on November 25th, 1951.

  4. Aeromedical Evacuation: Validating Civil Reserve Air Fleet

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-25

    Aeromedical Evacuation: Validating Civil Reserve Air Fleet FORMAT : Civilian Research Paper DATE: 25 February 2009 WORDS: 10,172 PAGES: 56 CLASSIFICATION... Barrancas , Florida, in 1910. Unfortunately, on its first test flight, it flew only 500 yards at an altitude of 100 feet before crashing. This flight

  5. Aeromedical transport after acute myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seidelin, Jakob B; Bruun, Niels Eske; Nielsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: No guidelines exist for the planning of aeromedical repatriation after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In 2004, we employed a risk evaluation-based decision-making system for repatriation of patients after AMI. The objective was to evaluate the safety of transports during 2005...

  6. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  7. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  8. Disaster Response Regional Architectures: Assessing Future Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-11

    Northeast Asia between China, Japan and South Korea and its connection to the wider regional response architecture . In the fourth chapter, Mr. Oiroa...Disaster Response Regional Architectures Assessing Future Possibilities Edited by Jessica Ear, Alistair D. B. Cook, and Deon V. Canyon First...Regional Architectures Assessing Future Possibilities Edited by Jessica Ear, Alistair D. B. Cook, and Deon V. Canyon 4 COORDINATING INSTITUTIONS About

  9. Emergency Aeromedical Services in Ireland – A Single-Centre Study in 2014

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Sheridan, G.A.

    2017-03-01

    This retrospective analysis includes patients requiring Emergency Aeromedical Services (EAS) in 2014. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the HEMS service in a single centre and to accurately assess whether certain internationally validated criteria can predict admission rates better than the currently used criteria. Using the American College of Surgeons (ACS) trauma-related dispatch criteria, each case was retrospectively evaluated. Results showed the mean total criteria met were 2.73 (σ=0.88) and 1.45 (σ=0.82) in admitted and discharged patients respectively. The total criteria met had a significant predictive value on admission rates (p<0.05). Increased admission rates were shown in patients with a high Mechanism of Injury (MOI) (p<0.05). False positive rates of HEMS transfer were higher when applying the current criteria compared to the ACS criteria. ACS total criteria can predict admission in HEMS patients with a higher specificity than currently used guidelines.

  10. On shift simulation in aeromedical operations - making it work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Glasheen

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Patient care in the prehospital and retrieval medicine (PHARM environment presents many technical and non-technical challenges. Clinicians are frequently required to perform complex interventions in a time critical and resource limited setting. Intensive training is required prior to operational deployment, and ongoing training is vital to ensure optimal team performance in the delivery of high quality patient care. Regular simulation training with high situational fidelity is valuable in developing and maintaining excellence in PHARM. We describe the methods employed by two Australian aeromedical retrieval services to facilitate daily on shift simulation.

  11. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T.B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Patwardhan, A.; Gomez-Echeverri, L. (eds.)

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  12. Mass Casualty Incident Response and Aeromedical Evacuation in Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mills, Christopher N

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Antarctica is one of the most remote regions on Earth. Mass casualty incident (MCI responses in Antarctica are prone to complications from multiple environmental and operational challenges. This review of the current status of MCI risks and response strategies for Antarctica focuses on aeromedical evacuation, a critical component of many possible MCI scenarios. Extreme cold and weather, a lack of medical resources and a multitude of disparate international bases all exert unique demands on MCI response planning. Increasing cruise ship traffic is also escalating the risk of MCI occurrence. To be successful, MCI response must be well coordinated and undertaken by trained rescuers, especially in the setting of Antarctica. Helicopter rescue or aeromedical evacuation of victims to off-continent facilities may be necessary. Currently, military forces have the greatest capacity for mass air evacuation. Specific risks that are likely to occur include structure collapses, vehicle incapacitations, vehicle crashes and fires. All of these events pose concomitant risks of hypothermia among both victims and rescuers. Antarctica’s unique environment requires flexible yet robust MCI response planning among the many entities in operation on the continent. [West J Emerg Med. 2011;12(1:37-42.

  13. Women in the fast jet cockpit--aeromedical considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, T J

    1992-09-01

    Historically, women have demonstrated the capacity to be successful aviators. A review of the scientific literature between 1966 and 1991 pertinent to the role of women in military aviation revealed only minor differences of questionable operational significance between men and women. Women may be more susceptible to motion sickness, radiation, and decompression sickness than men, but may be more resistant to cold water immersion and altitude sickness. Although men are on the average, larger, stronger, and more aerobically fit than women, there are large variations within each sex and a large overlap between the sexes. Gender differences in work performance, G tolerance, heat stress, and injury rate disappear when allowance is made for size, strength, and fitness. Aeromedical selection criteria can, thus, address individual characteristics without reference to gender. The possibility of fetal damage in the early stages of pregnancy (before diagnosis) appears to be perhaps the biggest single medical concern in allowing women access to all aviation and space careers.

  14. Assessing the future of green building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Raymond J.

    2005-04-01

    As the realities of resource depletion and global environmental degradation become more evident, we can anticipate a maturing and strengthening of the public's concern and knowledge on environmental issues. This will translate into an expectation for greater environmental responsibility and, as with other sectors, the building industry will be increasingly scrutinized for its environmental actions. The adoption of environmental strategies has been accelerated by the emergence of building environmental assessment methods that have provided both a definition and common language for green buildings as well as a means of communicating performance improvements. Whereas the current focus is on ``green'' design-reducing or mitigating the environmental consequences of buildings-the future concerns will embrace mitigation, adaptation to the new conditions and restoring previous adversely impacted regions and human settlements. This presentation will provide an overview of the evolution of green building practices to set a context for understanding emerging issues in building acoustics. Since the adoption of green building practices is a function of the context that shapes political and public priorities, the presentation compares and contrasts several short and long-term scenarios some certain, others more speculative and their direct and indirect consequences for environmental progress building design.

  15. [Flight nurses' comprehension about their role in the multiprofesional team of aero-medical transport].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scuissiato, Dayane Reinhardt; Boffi, Letícia Valois; da Rocha, Roseline da Rocha; Montezeli, Juliana Helena; Bordin, Michelle Taverna; Peres, Aida Maris

    2012-01-01

    This is a descriptive qualitative research which aimed at identifying the flight nurses' comprehension by about their role in the aero-medical multiprofesional team. A semi-structured interview was carried out with eight flight nurses from Curitiba-PR, from June to August 2009. The speeches were analyzed by the content analysis, from which three categories emerged. The first describes the responsibilities of the flight nurses as managers of the aero-medical mission, planning for before, during and after the transport, what includes the aircraft check-list and knowledge of the patient's case. The second category deals with aspects of these professionals as care providers to the aero-transferred patient. The third describes communication and team-work as fundamental requirements for flight nurses. It was concluded that the nurse in aero-medical team mixes management and caring in his/her professional practice by the use of specific competences.

  16. 国外空运医疗后送的形成与发展%Formation and Development of Foreign Aeromedical Evacuation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张晓丽; 钟方虎; 陈良恩; 安瑞卿

    2012-01-01

    The author mainly introduced the history, formation, development and innovation of aeromedical evacuation. The aeromedical evacuation system were initially formed during the World War I and World War II. It was period between the Korean War and the Vietnam War, aeromedical evacuation had a significant development that medical aircraft and medical personnel were improved. During the Gulf War and the Iraq war, injuries and patients evacuated by helicopter are more than fixed wing aircraft. In the future, the function of medical aircraft will be more perfectly and medical personnel need improve their skills.%本文主要回顾国外空运医疗后送的历史,介绍空运医疗后送形成、发展和变革.第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战空运医疗后送系统基本形成.朝鲜战争和越南战争中,空运医疗后送得到极大的发展,从卫生飞机的改进到医务人员的配备日趋完善.海湾战争和伊拉克战争期间,空运医疗后送发生了变革,旋翼机后送的伤病员数量超过固定翼飞机.未来空运医疗后送飞机的功能会更加完善,卫生人员的技术需要不断提高.

  17. Assessing wheat production futures in the Ukraine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ryabchenko, O.; Nonhebel, S

    2016-01-01

    In future decades, the global demand for cereals will increase due to growing demand for food and feed and use of cereal crops as a source for biofuels. Some studies on cereal production within Europe have identified the Ukraine as a country with a large potential to increase production. However, th

  18. The Future of Data-Enriched Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thille, Candace; Schneider, Emily; Kizilcec, René F.; Piech, Christopher; Halawa, Sherif A.; Greene, Daniel K.

    2014-01-01

    The article addresses the question of how the assessment process with large-scale data derived from online learning environments will be different from the assessment process without it. Following an explanation of big data and how it is different from previously available learner data, we describe three notable features that characterize…

  19. Anticipating the future: assessment of occupational function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombly, C

    1993-03-01

    I believe that the occupational therapy assessment procedure should reflect our conceptualization of occupational functioning and that there should be a congruence among goals, assessments, and treatment. I believe that there should be a universal occupational therapy intake assessment procedure that follows a top-down approach to clarify for the client that the role of occupational therapy is to promote his or her occupational functioning. All the layers of function that we treat should be assessed, with the particulars of context incorporated into assessments at the activity and higher levels. Further and most important, occupational functioning should be fully conceptualized and the relevant constructs and their relationships verified and made clear to all.

  20. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology.

  1. U.S. Army Aeromedical Research Laboratory Annual Progress Report Fiscal Year 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    milestones per ANSI/ ISO /IEC 17025 (General Requirements for Competence testing and Calibration Labs and ISO 9001 Laboratory Accreditation Program...58  Training ...instructors before, during, and after training . U.S. Army Aeromedical Research Laboratory — Fiscal Year 2010 11 Validation of a Weapons Simulator

  2. NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Gheorghe, Adrian; Jones, Sharon Monica

    2011-01-01

    The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

  3. Educational Assessment Grows Up: Looking toward the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backlund, Phil; Arneson, Pat

    2000-01-01

    Claims that assessment is the process by which educators know if they are actually doing what they intend to do in the classroom. Presents an overview of the history, the present, and the future of educational assessment to enable readers working with communication assessment issues to make more informed decisions. (NH)

  4. Assessment of future natural gas vehicle concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groten, B.; Arrigotti, S.

    1992-10-01

    The development of Natural Gas Vehicles is progressing rapidly under the stimulus of recent vehicle emission regulations. The development is following what can be viewed as a three step progression. In the first step, contemporary gasoline or diesel fueled automobiles are retrofitted with equipment enabling the vehicle to operate on either natural gas or standard liquid fuels. The second step is the development of vehicles which utilize traditional internal combustion engines that have been modified to operate exclusively on natural gas. These dedicated natural gas vehicles operate more efficiently and have lower emissions than the dual fueled vehicles. The third step is the redesigning, from the ground up, of a vehicle aimed at exploiting the advantages of natural gas as an automotive fuel while minimizing its disadvantages. The current report is aimed at identifying the R&D needs in various fuel storage and engine combinations which have potential for providing increased efficiency, reduced emissions, and reductions in vehicle weight and size. Fuel suppliers, automobile and engine manufacturers, many segments of the natural gas and other industries, and regulatory authorities will influence or be affected by the development of such a third generation vehicle, and it is recommended that GRI act to bring these groups together in the near future to begin, developing the focus on a 'designed-for-natural-gas' vehicle.

  5. Evaluation of Neurophysiologic and Systematic Changes during Aeromedical Evacuation and en Route Care of Combat Casualties in a Swine Polytrauma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    and en Route Care of Combat Casualties in a Swine Polytrauma PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Richard McCarron, PhD CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: Henry M...Aeromedical Evacuation and en Route Care of Combat Casualties in a Swine Polytrauma Award Number: W81XWH-13-2-0022, 3rd Annual Report JAN2016 3...models of neurotrauma and polytrauma . We plan to investigate the effects of aero-medical evacuation on neurophysiology and lung function in swine

  6. Observational assessment and correlates to blood pressure of future ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Observational assessment and correlates to blood pressure of future ... of undiagnosed hypertension among undergraduate medical students and to ... Family history of hypertension or diabetes mellitus was not associated with hypertension.

  7. Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Jonathan M.; Lopez, Jose R.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Young, Charles A.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2017-01-01

    Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

  8. Environmental assessment process needs and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1985-01-01

    The environmental assessment process as legislatively mandated by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) constitutes a double-edged sword as regards the successful management and disposal of radioactive waste. On the one hand, NEPA requires identification and disclosure of the environmental and societal consequences of a given major federal action, consideration of alternatives and/or mitigative measures leading to the same end result, a balancing of costs and benefits, and provides for and encourages public participation in the decision-making process regarding the proposed action(s). On the other hand, public participation supported by judicial decisions, based more upon procedural than substantive issues, may delay, alter, or indeed prohibit a proposed course of action. If the cognizant federal agencies (DOE and NRC in the radioactive waste area) comply with both the spirit and the letter of NEPA a framework for the successful management of radioactive wastes on all types can be developed. If however, these agencies are less than earnest in their NEPA compliance actions or if public opposition is backed by overzealous court action, any radioactive waste management/disposal action (however technically sound) can be hoisted upon a petard from which it may not be freed until well into the next century.

  9. Integrative Assessment: Reframing Assessment Practice for Current and Future Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crisp, Geoffrey T.

    2012-01-01

    The requirement to provide timely formative tasks that are designed to facilitate student learning and autonomy has provoked a wider examination of the role of assessment in higher education and encouraged further investigation of the alignment of learning, teaching and assessment in curriculum design frameworks. Many current authors have proposed…

  10. The future of human rights impact assessments of trade agreements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walker, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    The Future of Human Rights Impact Assessments of Trade Agreements develops a methodology for human rights impact assessments of trade agreements and considers whether there is any value in using the methodology on a sustained basis to ensure that the human dimensions of international trade are taken

  11. Laboratory evaluation of 10 heat and moisture exchangers using simulated aeromedical evacuation conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suliman, Huda S; Fecura, Stephen E; Baskin, Jonathan; Kalns, John E

    2011-06-01

    Heat and moisture exchangers (HMEs) are used for airway humidification in mechanically ventilated patients and have been evaluated only under hospital conditions. U.S. Air Force aeromedical evacuation transports are performed under rugged conditions further complicated by the cold and dry environment in military aircrafts, and HMEs are used to provide airway humidification for patients. This study evaluated 10 commercial HMEs using a test system that simulated aeromedical evacuation conditions. Although the American National Standards Institute recommends inspired air to be at an absolute humidity value of > or = 30 mg/L for mechanically ventilated patients, the highest absolute humidity by any HME was approximately 20 mg/L. Although none of the HMEs were able to maintain a temperature high enough to achieve the humidity standard of the American National Standards Institute, the clinical significance of this standard may be less important than the relative humidity maintained in the respired air, especially on evacuation flights of short duration.

  12. Clinical Experience and Learning Style of Flight Nurse and Aeromedical Evacuation Technician Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jong, Marla J; Dukes, Susan F; Dufour, Karey M; Mortimer, Darcy L

    2017-01-01

    The clinical experience and preferred learning style of U.S. Air Force flight nurses and aeromedical evacuation technicians are unknown. Using a cross-sectional survey design, we gathered data regarding the clinical experience, level of comfort providing clinical care, and preferred learning style of 77 active duty (AD), Air Force Reserve (AFR), and Air National Guard (ANG) nurses enrolled in the U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine Flight Nurse course, and 121 AD, AFR, and ANG medical technicians enrolled in the Aeromedical Evacuation Technician course. Nurses and medical technicians reported 7.6 ± 5.5 and 3.9 ± 4.5 yr of experience, respectively. AD, AFR, and ANG nurses had comparable years of experience: 5.8 ± 3.2, 8.3 ± 6.6, and 7.9 ± 4.2 yr, respectively; however, AD medical technicians had more years of experience (5.6 ± 4.4 yr) than AFR (3.1 ± 4.8 yr) and ANG (1.9 ± 2.8 yr) medical technicians. Both nurses and medical technicians reported infrequently caring for patients with various disease processes and managing equipment or devices that they will routinely encounter when transporting patients as an aeromedical evacuation clinician. Nurses and medical technicians preferred a kinesthetic learning style or a multimodal learning style that included kinesthetic learning. Nearly all (99%) nurses and 97% of medical technicians identified simulation as their preferred teaching method. These findings confirm faculty concerns regarding the clinical experience of flight nurse and aerospace evacuation technician students.De Jong MJ, Dukes SF, Dufour KM, Mortimer DL. Clinical experience and learning style of flight nurse and aeromedical evacuation technician students. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(1):23-29.

  13. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Q. L.; Barker, G. C.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Tian, M.S.; Song, X. Y.; Malakar, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, eff...

  14. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Q L; Barker, G C; Gorris, L G M; Tian, M S; Song, X Y; Malakar, P K

    2015-03-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, effectiveness of microbial risk assessment utility for risk management decision making, and application of QMRA to establish appropriate Food Safety Objectives.

  15. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. This methodology was then expanded and utilized to characterize the changing hydrology on the South Platte River Basin. Future urban growth is represented by housingdensity maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land‐Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and describe a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as anapproach to evaluate basin‐wide impacts of development on water‐quantity and ‐quality, 2) present initial results from the application of the methodology to

  16. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. This methodology was then expanded and utilized to characterize the changing hydrology on the South Platte River Basin. Future urban growth is represented by housingdensity maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land‐Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and describe a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as anapproach to evaluate basin‐wide impacts of development on water‐quantity and ‐quality, 2) present initial results from the application of the methodology to

  17. Back to the Future: Personality and Assessment and Personality Development

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, Brent W.

    2009-01-01

    In this essay I consider the future of personality development in light of the past effects of Personality and Assessment on the field of personality in general and personality development in particular. The essay is organized around 1) the effect of Mischel's book on the foundational theories informing personality development; 2) definitions of personality traits; 3) an alternative model of personality traits, described as the sociogenomic model of personality traits, that can bridge the div...

  18. THE ASSESSMENT OF CYBERBULLYING: THE PRESENT SITUATION AND FUTURE CHALLENGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Lucas-Molina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a significant increase in the interest of the educational and scientific community on cyberbullying, a new form of peer abuse and intimidation. Despite the widespread proliferation of studies and assessment tools on the phenomenon, there are still major conceptual and methodological gaps. This paper offers a comprehensive and updated review of the results of research on the definition of the construct, its prevalence and its impact on the people involved. Finally, it focuses specifically on the assessment of the construct and provides a brief review of the general and psychometric characteristics of the instruments used in some of the most relevant national and international studies conducted on the subject. This work places special emphasis on the present and future challenges and concludes with a number of general recommendations intended to guide the correct selection and/or construction of assessment instruments in this field of study.

  19. Some Suggested Future Directions of Quantitative Resource Assessments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Future quantitative assessments will be expected to estimate quantities, values, and locations of undiscovered mineral resources in a form that conveys both economic viability and uncertainty associated with the resources. Historically, declining metal prices point to the need for larger deposits over time. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the greatest opportunity for reducing uncertainty in assessments lies in lowering uncertainty associated with tonnage estimates. Of all errors possible in assessments, those affecting tonnage estimates are by far the most important. Selecting the correct deposit model is the most important way of controlling errors because of the dominance of tonnage-deposit models are the best known predictors of tonnage. Much of the surface is covered with apparently barren rocks and sediments in many large regions. Because many exposed mineral deposits are believed to have been found, a prime concern is the presence of possible mineralized rock under cover. Assessments of areas with resources under cover must rely on extrapolation from surrounding areas, new geologic maps of rocks under cover, or analogy with other well-explored areas that can be considered training tracts. Cover has a profound effect on uncertainty and on methods and procedures of assessments because geology is seldom known and geophysical methods typically have attenuated responses. Many earlier assessment methods were based on relationships of geochemical and geophysical variables to deposits learned from deposits exposed on the surface—these will need to be relearned based on covered deposits. Mineral-deposit models are important in quantitative resource assessments for two reasons: (1) grades and tonnages of most deposit types are significantly different, and (2) deposit types are present in different geologic settings that can be identified from geologic maps. Mineral-deposit models are the keystone in combining the diverse geoscience information on geology

  20. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  1. USGCRP's Sustained Assessment Process: Progress to date and future plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelo, B. J.; Reidmiller, D.; Lipschultz, F.; Cloyd, E. T.

    2016-12-01

    One of the four main objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) Strategic Plan is to "Conduct Sustained Assessments", which seeks to build a process that synthesizes and advances the state of scientific knowledge on global change, develops future scenarios and potential impacts, and evaluates how effectively science is being and can be used to inform and support the Nation's response to climate change. To do so, USGCRP strives to establish a standing capacity to conduct national climate assessments with sectoral and regional information to evaluate climate risks and opportunities, and to inform decision-making, especially with regard to resiliency planning and adaptation measures. Building on the success of the 3rd National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2014), we discuss the range of USGCRP activities that embody the sustained assessment concept. Special reports, such as the recent Climate and Human Health Assessment and upcoming Climate Science Special Report, fill gaps in our understanding and provide crucial building blocks for next NCA report (NCA4). To facilitate the use of consistent assumptions across NCA4, new scenario products for climate, population, and land use will be made available through initiatives such as NOAA's Climate Resilience Toolkit. NCA4 will be informed by user engagement to advance the customization of knowledge. The report will strive to advance our ability to quantify various risks, monetize certain impacts, and communicate the benefits (i.e., avoided impacts) of various mitigation pathways. NCAnet (a national network of climate-interested stakeholders) continues to grow and foster collaborations across levels of governance and within civil society. Finally, USGCRP continues to actively engage with other assessment processes, at international, state, city, and tribal levels, to exchange ideas and to facilitate the potential for "linked" assessments across spatial scales.

  2. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  3. A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

    2015-04-01

    We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

  4. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  5. Traumatic brain injury: future assessment tools and treatment prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven R Flanagan

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Steven R Flanagan1, Joshua B Cantor2, Teresa A Ashman21New York University School of Medicine, The Rusk Institute of Rehabilitation, New York, NY, USA; 2Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USAAbstract: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is widespread and leads to death and disability in millions of individuals around the world each year. Overall incidence and prevalence of TBI are likely to increase in absolute terms in the future. Tackling the problem of treating TBI successfully will require improvements in the understanding of normal cerebral anatomy, physiology, and function throughout the lifespan, as well as the pathological and recuperative responses that result from trauma. New treatment approaches and combinations will need to be targeted to the heterogeneous needs of TBI populations. This article explores and evaluates the research evidence in areas that will likely lead to a reduction in TBI-related morbidity and improved outcomes. These include emerging assessment instruments and techniques in areas of structural/chemical and functional neuroimaging and neuropsychology, advances in the realms of cell-based therapies and genetics, promising cognitive rehabilitation techniques including cognitive remediation and the use of electronic technologies including assistive devices and virtual reality, and the emerging field of complementary and alternative medicine.Keywords: traumatic brain injury, assessments, treatments

  6. The Future of Small Navy Ship Sickbays and Army Aeromedical Evacuation Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    of conflict than we have prepared for for the last six decades. … One thing will remain the same. We will still need men and women in uniform to call...saliva testing abilities for pregnancy and identification of health problems (Healy, 2014). The potential capability of this device in the small ship...11cquire pcrsOIUI.(’ I/c-<~soolties at night ;~md duri ••g dl.oi! day ..vb~ • is.ibU1ty is obsc-un :d by smoke . ligl!J p.r.edpi1atio1~ . l!t by hlowins

  7. The Self Assessment of Future Events Scale (SAFE): assessing perceptions of risk for future violence in intimate partner relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Douglas B; Whiting, Jason B; Karakurt, Gunnur; Oka, Megan; Servino, David

    2013-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a survey measure, appropriate for use in clinical or research settings, to assess respondent's perceptions that their partner will engage in future physical violence, verbal/psychological violence, or controlling behaviors. Data were collected from adults in intimate relationships. Exploratory factor analysis was used to refine the measure and confirmatory factor analysis provided evidence for the fit of the final version of the measure. Scores on the measure indicated less safety for participants in distressed relationships and for participants meeting the study criteria for PTSD. Scores on the measure also indicated significantly decreased safety for participants that reported being the victims of physical violence and participants reporting both victimization and perpetration in their current intimate relationships. © 2012 American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy.

  8. Motivational factors that affect the retention of reserve nurses in eight aeromedical evacuation flights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janelli, L M; Jarmuz, P A

    1987-04-01

    The purpose of the study was to identify the motivational factors which contribute to the retention of reserve flight nurses in aeromedical evacuation flights. Almost all units experience some difficulty in retaining nurses, and with the reserve program becoming increasingly complex, this problem is likely to become more severe. The motivation maintenance theory developed by Frederich Herzberg contends that two sets of factors can impinge on job satisfaction. Hygiene factors such as salary and working conditions can lead to job dissatisfaction. Motivators, such as job content and professional achievement are job satisfaction factors. A convenience sample of 69 reserve flight nurses from 8 flights was utilized in the survey approach. Participants filled out a Demographic Questionnaire, and a Reserve Flight Nurse Satisfaction Questionnaire. The results confirmed the proposed hypotheses in that not only were the nurses able to identify motivational factors, but that these factors had more impact on job satisfaction than did the hygiene factors.

  9. [Doctor, may I travel in space? Aeromedical considerations regarding commercial suborbital space flights].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haerkens, Marck H T M; Simons, Ries; Kuipers, André

    2011-01-01

    Within a few years, the first commercial operators will start flying passengers on suborbital flights to the verge of space. Medical data on the effects of space journeys on humans have mainly been provided by professional astronauts. There is very little research into the aeromedical consequences of suborbital flights for the health of untrained passengers. Low air pressure and oxygen tension can be compensated for by pressurising the spacecraft or pressure suit. Rapid changes in gravitational (G-)force pose ultimate challenges to cardiovascular adaptation mechanisms. Zero-gravity and G-force may cause motion sickness. Vibrations and noise during the flight may disturb communication between passengers and crew. In addition, the psychological impact of a suborbital flight should not be underestimated. There are currently no legal requirements available for medical examinations for commercial suborbital flights, but it seems justifiable to establish conditions for potential passengers' states of health.

  10. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retèl Valesca P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

  11. Assessing potential future environmental legislative, regulatory, and judicial events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.; Schweitzer, M.; Godfrey, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Wagner, C. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States); MacGregor, D.G. [MacGregor-Bates, Inc. (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This report describes a methodology to proactively and methodically assess future potential environmental legislative, regulatory, and judicial events. This is an important endeavor because new, revised, and reauthorized legislation, proposed and final regulations, and outcomes of judicial proceedings have the potential to impose new actions, directions, and costs of many organizations in the United States (related to capital investments, operating approaches, and research and development) and to affect the quality of life. The electric power industry is particularly impacted by environmental regulatory events (the term `regulatory` is used to cover all the types of legal events listed above), as the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity affects air and water quality, require disposal of solid, hazardous, and radioactive wastes, and at times, impacts wetlands and endangered species. Numerous potential regulatory events, such as the reauthorization of the Clean Water Act and new regulations associated with global climate change, can greatly affect the power industry. Organizations poised to respond proactively to such events will improve their competitive positions, reduce their costs in the long-term, and improve their public images.

  12. Evaluation of Neurophysiologic and Systematic Changes during Aeromedical Evacuation and en Route Care of Combat Casualties in a Swine Polytrauma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-01

    Combat Casualties in a Swine Polytrauma PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Richard McCarron, PhD CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: Henry M. Jackson Foundation Bethesda...MD 20817-1834 REPORT DATE: February 2017 TYPE OF REPORT: Annual PREPARED FOR: U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command Fort Detrick...Aeromedical Evacuation and en Route Care of Combat Casualties in a Swine Polytrauma 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER W81XWH-13-2-0022 6. AUTHOR(S) Richard M. McCarron

  13. Assessing and treating cognitive impairment in schizophrenia: current and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chun-Yuan; Tsai, Guochuan E; Lane, Hsien-Yuan

    2014-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a serious neuropsychiatric disease characterized by positive symptoms, negative symptoms and cognitive impairment. Evidence have shown that cognitive impairment sustains in every clinical stage, may relate with the liability, may predict functional outcome in schizophrenia and could be the core symptom of schizophrenia. The treatment of cognitive impairment in schizophrenia could alleviate the burden of the illness and has become the subject of intensive research. In this review, we synthesize current advances of assessing strategies, pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments of cognitive impairment in schizophrenia. According to the registered records of ClinicalTrials.gov, the most widely studied strategies have aimed at modifying neurochemical mechanisms of dopamine metabolism, glutamate metabolism, γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) metabolism, serotonin metabolism, acetylcholine metabolism, and oxytocin. Despite preclinical data for putative pro-cognitive drugs, their clinical benefits for schizophrenia patients have been limited. The small sample sizes and the short treatment duration could be related with the suboptimal results. Evidence supported the short-term benefits of cognitive remediation therapy on cognitive domains with small to moderate effects; however, the small sample sizes and the characteristics of subjects limited the generalization of the positive results and the long-term functional outcome is not clear. Combination therapy is promising, by integrating pro-cognitive agents and cognitive rehabilitation programs or combining two kinds of pro-cognitive agents via different mechanisms. Future studies should investigate the pro-cognitive drugs' long-term efficacy, rebound deterioration in psychosis/cognition following discontinuation, and related biomarkers of functional outcome.

  14. A Statewide Writing Assessment Model: Student Proficiency and Future Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dappen, Leon; Isernhagen, Jody; Anderson, Sue

    2008-01-01

    This paper is an examination of statewide district writing achievement gain data from the Nebraska Statewide Writing Assessment system and implications for statewide assessment writing models. The writing assessment program is used to gain compliance with the United States No Child Left Behind Law (NCLB), a federal effort to influence school…

  15. Futurism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  16. Assessing Collaborative Learning: Big Data, Analytics and University Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Assessment in higher education has focused on the performance of individual students. This focus has been a practical as well as an epistemic one: methods of assessment are constrained by the technology of the day, and in the past they required the completion by individuals under controlled conditions of set-piece academic exercises. Recent…

  17. Assessment of the energy efficiency enhancement of future mobile networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litjens, R.; Toh, Y.; Zhang, H.; Blume, O.

    2014-01-01

    We assess the energy efficiency of mobile networks in 2020, and compare it with a 2010 baseline. A comprehensive assessment approach is taken, considering all relevant scenario aspects such as data traffic growth, hardware evolutions, mobile network deployments and operations including network shari

  18. Assessment and E-Learning: Current Issues and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowie, Neil; Sakui, Keiko

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes different ways in which digital technology can be used for language learning. It then identifies some key trends connecting assessment and technology in language learning and higher education: the use of automated systems to enhance traditional assessment practices; the use of Web 2.0 tools to facilitate new assessment…

  19. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  20. Regional landslide hazard assessment in a deep uncertain future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2017-04-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around future rainfall conditions. We demonstrate how GSA can used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

  1. Using Self- and Peer-Assessment to Enhance Students' Future-Learning in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Glyn; Martin, Dona; Pleasants, Kathleen

    2011-01-01

    In higher education settings, assessment tasks get the attention of students, but once students submit their work they typically become disengaged with the assessment process. Hence, opportunities for learning are lost as they become passive recipients of assessment outcomes. Future-learning oriented assessment engages students in the assessment…

  2. Future teachers’ perception on the assessing systems for their learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Manuel López Pator

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper is aimed at analysing the students’ perception on assessment and grading systems, instruments and techniques used in Teacher Education (TE. In order to determine the current situation for this assessment in TE a questionnaire containing four subscales was developed with a high reliability degree. Data obtained are applied to a simple of 635 students from 7 different colleges and analysed with both descriptive and inferential statistics using single-factor ANOVA. The outcomes show that assessing practices oriented towards learning are still minority practices in TE. On the other hand, the existence of so many significant differences between Primary Teacher Education and Secondary Teacher Education is worrisome. The analyses also suggest there are few subjects containing assessing styles oriented towards learning, although they include very varied and rich strategies.

  3. Self-Assessment in Librarianship: Current Practices and Future Possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ania Dymarz

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors of this qualitative study set out to investigate self-assessment practices within the library profession. The researchers conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of nine librarians coming from a range of library settings and possessing a diversity of library experience. Interviews were then transcribed and coded in NVIVO to identify emergent themes. This paper details some of the results of that study, highlighting motivations, limitations, and strategies with regard to self-assessment. The findings present a summary of a range of approaches to the practice of assessment as reported by the interviewees. One area of possible growth for our profession, as highlighted by the findings, is in the development of peer networks as a support for the individual practice of self-assessment. While the results of this small case study cannot be generalized, the authors hope these preliminary findings can open up the conversation around self-assessment both for individual librarians and for those librarians and managers working to shape their workplace culture.

  4. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; Harten, van W.H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and d

  5. Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction: An Assessment and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernon, Peter; Nitecki, Danuta A.; Altman, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    Reviews the literature of library and information science to examine issues related to service quality and customer satisfaction in academic libraries. Discusses assessment, the application of a business model to higher education, a multiple constituency approach, decision areas regarding service quality, resistance to service quality, and future…

  6. Afterword: Considerations for Future Practice of Assessment and Accountability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bresciani, Marilee J.

    2013-01-01

    This afterword offers challenges and considerations as the assessment movement continues to develop. The author offers some simple considerations for readers to ponder as they advance their evidence-based decision making processes, and encourages others to use these methods within the context of recent neuroscientific evidence that learning and…

  7. An analytic framework to assess future electricity options in Kosovo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kittner, Noah; Dimco, Hilda; Azemi, Visar; Tairyan, Evgenia; Kammen, Daniel M.

    2016-10-01

    We have developed an analytic platform to analyze the electricity options, costs, and impacts for Kosovo, a nation that is a critical part of the debate over centralized versus distributed electricity generation and the role of fossil fuels versus cleaner electricity options to meet growing demands for power. We find that a range of alternatives exists to meet present supply constraints all at a lower cost than constructing a proposed 600 MW coal plant. The options include energy efficiency measures, combinations of solar PV, wind, hydropower, and biomass, and the introduction of natural gas. A 30 EUR ton-1 shadow price on CO2 increases costs of coal generation by at least 330 million EUR. The results indicate that financing a new coal plant is the most expensive pathway to meet future electricity demand.

  8. Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Björk Thorolfsdottir

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland, ii population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study, and iii effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses. Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1 If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2 If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3 Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.

  9. The unrecognized future dimension of corporate sustainability assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Schneider, Anselm; Meins, Erika

    2009-01-01

    Companies play a central role on the way towards sustainable development. Over the last years, many approaches have emerged that attempt to measure companies’ contribution to sustainable development, i.e. corporate sustainability. Our analysis of existing approaches reveals two major shortcomings. First, value creation as a core condition for sustainability as well as for further contributions to economic sustainability is often ignored in these assessments. Second, existing approaches fail t...

  10. Professional self-assessment of future health basics teachers as professionally important quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radchenko A.V.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to theoretically substantiate and experimentally test professional self-assessment of future health basics teachers as professionally important quality. Material: 152 students participated in experiment. Results: assessment of images “I am real”, “I am student” and I am future professional” is rather high in most of students. The strength of these three images was assessed also approximately equally. But portion of average marks in indicator of image strength is much higher than in indicator of mark. Activity of three images differs a little and has significant quantity of average and high marks. Analysis of three main images’ wholeness witnesses that students’ self assessment is rather holistic. With it image “I am future professional” is formed on the base of image “I am student”. Dynamic of images’ self assessment witnesses that increasing of assessment and respect to image “I am future professional” depend on year of studying. Besides, assessment of strength and activity of this image also increases. Conclusions: in the process of studying students are oriented on professional formation as well as on formation of professionally important qualities, revelation of potential for self realization in the future. It was found that responsible attitude to professional functioning, future relations with children depend on self-assessment of formation.

  11. Harmonization of future needs for dermal exposure assessment and modeling : a workshop report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Maidment, S.; Mcclaflin, J.L.; Fehrenbacher, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    Dermal exposure assessment and modeling is still in early phases of development. This article presents the results of a workshop organized to harmonize the future needs in this field. Methods for dermal exposure assessment either assess the mass of contaminant that is transferred to the skin, or the

  12. Wind diesel systems - design assessment and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Infield, D.G.; Scotney, A.; Lundsager, P.

    1992-01-01

    system models for assessing both dynamic characteristics and overall performance and economics. An introduction is provided to the Wind Diesel Engineering Design Toolkit currently under development (for implementation on PC) by a consortium of leading wind diesel experts, representing six European......Diesels are the obvious form. of back-up electricity generation in small to medium sized wind systems. High wind penetrations pose significant technical problems for the system designer, ranging from component sizing to control specification and dynamic stability. A key role is seen for proven...

  13. An assessment of future volcanic hazard at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hackett, W.R. [WRH Associates, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    1996-12-01

    Preliminary results and methods of a volcanic-hazards assessment for the proposed high-level nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain are given. The most significant hazards are potential intersection of the repository by a basaltic dike, or structural disruption associated with dike intrusion. Two approaches are taken, which give similar results: homogeneous volcanic-source zones and spatial smoothing. The preliminary computed probabilities of intersection of the Yucca Mountain repository by a basaltic dike are in the range 10{sup -7} to 10{sup -8} per year.

  14. Assessment of iodine nutrition in populations: past, present, and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Michael B; Andersson, Maria

    2012-10-01

    Iodine status has been historically assessed by palpation of the thyroid and reported as goiter rates. Goiter is a functional biomarker that can be applied to both individuals and populations, but it is subjective. Iodine status is now assessed using an objective biomarker of exposure, i.e., urinary iodine concentrations (UICs) in spot samples and comparison of the median UIC to UIC cut-offs to categorize population status. This has improved standardization, but inappropriate use of the crude proportion of UICs below the cut-off level of 100 µg/L to estimate the number of iodine-deficient children has led to an overestimation of the prevalence of iodine deficiency. In this review, a new approach is proposed in which UIC data are extrapolated to iodine intakes, adjusted for intraindividual variation, and then interpreted using the estimated average requirement cut-point model. This may allow national programs to define the prevalence of iodine deficiency in the population and to quantify the necessary increase in iodine intakes to ensure sufficiency. In addition, thyroglobulin can be measured on dried blood spots to provide an additional sensitive functional biomarker of iodine status.

  15. Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Gosling, Simon N.; Kummu, Matti; Flörke, Martina; Pfister, Stephan; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Zhang, Xinxin; Zheng, Chunmiao; Alcamo, Joseph; Oki, Taikan

    2017-06-01

    Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio-economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, water scarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a variety of indicators that have been developed to capture different characteristics of water scarcity. Population, water availability, and water use are the key elements of these indicators. Most of the progress made in the last few decades has been on the quantification of water availability and use by applying spatially explicit models. However, challenges remain on appropriate incorporation of green water (soil moisture), water quality, environmental flow requirements, globalization, and virtual water trade in water scarcity assessment. Meanwhile, inter- and intra-annual variability of water availability and use also calls for assessing the temporal dimension of water scarcity. It requires concerted efforts of hydrologists, economists, social scientists, and environmental scientists to develop integrated approaches to capture the multi-faceted nature of water scarcity.

  16. Assessing Future Hydrological Changes in the Tana River Basin, Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Rhosanna

    2017-04-01

    Changes in precipitation will be one of the most significant factors in determining the overall impact of global climate change but are also one of the most uncertain and difficult to project. The reliability of global climate models (GCMs) for predicting changes in rainfall is particularly concerning for East Africa. This research focuses on Kenya's Tana River Basin and aims to project the impacts of climate change upon the hydrology in order to inform national climate change adaptation plans. The Tana basin has been identified as crucial for Kenya's development, with increased irrigated agriculture and additional dams planned. The area is also important for biodiversity and contains already-threatened ecosystems and endemic species. Kenya is already a water-scarce country and demand for water is expected to increase in the future as the country develops. Therefore, examining changes to precipitation with climate change is vital. The WaterWorld Policy Support System (http://www.policysupport.org/waterworld), a physically-based hydrological model, has been used to determine annual and monthly changes in hydrology. WaterWorld utilises the WorldClim (Hijmans et al., 2005) climate projections for the latest generation of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) to characterise the temperature and precipitation changes. In order to better understand the high uncertainties in projections of climate change, the full range of latest emissions scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) were used to force the WaterWorld model. The WorldClim baseline values were evaluated by comparing them to observations and were found to correctly represent the annual cycle of precipitation. In addition, the CRU TS3.22 data (Harris et al., 2014) have also been examined and provide a valuable comparison to the WorldClim dataset. These simulations encompass a broad range of climate projections, but show a general trend towards

  17. Assessment of Future Remnant Liver Function Using Hepatobiliary Scintigraphy in Patients Undergoing Major Liver Resection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaf, W.; van Lienden, K.P.; Dinant, S.; Roelofs, J.J.T.H.; Busch, O.R.C.; Gouma, D.J.; Bennink, R.J.; van Gulik, T.M.

    2010-01-01

    Tc-99m-mebrofenin hepatobiliary scintigraphy (HBS) was used as a quantitative method to evaluate liver function. The aim of this study was to compare future remnant liver function assessed by Tc-99m-mebrofenin hepatobiliary scintigraphy with future remnant liver volume in the prediction of liver

  18. Beyond speculative robot ethics: A vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plas, A.P. van der; Smits, M.; Wehrmann, C.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to s

  19. 17 CFR 1.15 - Risk assessment reporting requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... exposure reports filed by such Material Affiliated Person with a foreign futures authority or other foreign... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment reporting requirements for futures commission merchants. 1.15 Section 1.15 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY...

  20. Palliative care in India: Situation assessment and future scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kar, S S; Subitha, L; Iswarya, S

    2015-01-01

    Palliative care is an approach that improves the quality of life of patients and their families facing the problems associated with life-threatening illness, through prevention and relief of suffering by means of early identification, assessment and treatment of pain, and other problems - physical, psychosocial, and spiritual. It is estimated that in India the total number of people who need palliative care is likely to be 5.4 million people a year. Though palliative care services have been in existence for many years, India ranks at the bottom of the Quality of Death index in overall score. However there has been steady progress in the past few years through community-owned palliative care services. One of the key objectives of the National Programme for prevention and control of cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and stroke is to establish and develop capacity for palliative and rehabilitative care. Community models for the provision of home-based palliative care is possible by involving community caregivers and volunteers supervised by nurses trained in palliative care. Training of medical officers and health care professionals, and sensitization of the public through awareness campaigns are vital to improve the scope and coverage of palliative care. Process of translating palliative care plan into action requires strong leadership, competent management, political support and integration across all levels of care.

  1. Palliative care in India: Situation assessment and future scope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S S Kar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Palliative care is an approach that improves the quality of life of patients and their families facing the problems associated with life-threatening illness, through prevention and relief of suffering by means of early identification, assessment and treatment of pain, and other problems – physical, psychosocial, and spiritual. It is estimated that in India the total number of people who need palliative care is likely to be 5.4 million people a year. Though palliative care services have been in existence for many years, India ranks at the bottom of the Quality of Death index in overall score. However there has been steady progress in the past few years through community-owned palliative care services. One of the key objectives of the National Programme for prevention and control of cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and stroke is to establish and develop capacity for palliative and rehabilitative care. Community models for the provision of home-based palliative care is possible by involving community caregivers and volunteers supervised by nurses trained in palliative care. Training of medical officers and health care professionals, and sensitization of the public through awareness campaigns are vital to improve the scope and coverage of palliative care. Process of translating palliative care plan into action requires strong leadership, competent management, political support and integration across all levels of care.

  2. The future of anticoagulation management in atrial fibrillation in Europe: An assessment of today's challenges with recommendations for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichten, Catherine A; Castle-Clarke, Sophie; Manville, Catriona; Horvath, Veronika; Robin, Enora; Krapels, Joachim; Parks, Sarah; Sim, Megan; van Zijverden, Olga; Chataway, Joanna

    2015-11-30

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of cardiac arrhythmia, affecting approximately 1-2 per cent of the population worldwide. Those who suffer from AF have a five times higher risk of stroke. AF prevalence increases with age and it affects roughly 18 per cent of the population over 85. Consequently, as populations age, AF is becoming an increasingly significant public health issue. Over recent years there have been developments in treatment and management options, both for treating the arrhythmia directly, and assessing and reducing the risk of AF-related stroke, but there is a need to ensure that available knowledge is applied optimally to benefit patients so that opportunities to prevent AF-related stroke are not missed. The aims of this project were to assess the current landscape and explore the direction of future developments in AF management in Europe, with a focus on the use of anticoagulants in the prevention of AF-related stroke. Through rapid evidence assessment, key informant interviews, PESTLE analysis and the development and exploration of future scenarios, we have developed sets of shorter- and longer-term recommendations for improving AF-related patient outcomes. The short-term recommendations are: i) improve AF awareness among the public and policymakers; ii) support education about AF management for healthcare professionals and patients; and iii) maintain engagement in AF-related research across the health services.

  3. Environmental Assessment for the Aeromedical Evacuation Formal Training Unit, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    endangered  Upland Sandpiper (Bartramia longicauda), threatened  Sedge Wren (Cistothorus platensis), species of concern  Henslow’s sparrow...tresses (Spiranthes magnicamporum), potentially threatened  Pigeon grape (Vitis cinerea), potentially threatened Additionally, the midland sedge ... Carex mesochorea) is known to exist from just outside the Base boundary in Greene County and is listed as threatened in Ohio. This species is quite

  4. Assessment of Aeromedical Evacuation Transport Patient Outcomes With and Without Cabin Altitude Restriction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-24

    Traumatic shock • Other coagulation defects • Rhabdomyolysis • Malnutrition • Essential hypertension • Mixed acid - base balance disorder...Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio, with SG5 funds provided by the Air Force Medical Support Agency . This study involved a multi-phased...WP-TR-2017-0016 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S

  5. Formative Assessment as a Component of the Future English Teacher Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, Marina Viktorovna; Sleptsova, Larisa Arkadyevna

    2015-01-01

    The article deals with the problem of the initial stage of the future English teacher training and forming basic professional teaching skills by means of the implementation of formative assessment methods into the process of studying. It reveals the urgent necessity of using a modern and reliable system of assessment as a sound foundation of a…

  6. Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Mexico: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Escobedo, Pedro; Esquivel-Ancona, Fayne; Hollingworth, Liz

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the history, current practices, and future directions in intellectual assessment of children and youth in Mexico. Differences and similarities with the United States are explored through the analysis of theoretical perspectives, practices, and policies. A summarized history of intellectual assessment is…

  7. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that p

  8. Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Mexico: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Escobedo, Pedro; Esquivel-Ancona, Fayne; Hollingworth, Liz

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the history, current practices, and future directions in intellectual assessment of children and youth in Mexico. Differences and similarities with the United States are explored through the analysis of theoretical perspectives, practices, and policies. A summarized history of intellectual assessment is…

  9. 17 CFR 1.14 - Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... regarding sources of funding, together with a narrative discussion by management of the liquidity of the... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment recordkeeping... Related Reporting Requirements § 1.14 Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures...

  10. Assessment of potential future hydrogen markets in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashani, A. K.

    1980-01-01

    Potential future hydrogen markets in the United States are assessed. Future hydrogen markets for various use sectors are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs from various alternatives is estimated, stimuli and barriers to the development of hydrogen markets are discussed, an overview of the status of technologies for the production and utilization of hydrogen is presented, and, finally, societal aspects of hydrogen production and utilization are discussed.

  11. Beyond speculative robot ethics: a vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Plas, Arjanna; Smits, Martijntje; Wehrmann, Caroline

    2010-11-01

    In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to some promising co-designed robot concepts in which jointly articulated moral guidelines are embedded. With our model, we think to have designed an interesting response on a recent call for a less speculative ethics of technology by encouraging discussions about the quality of positive and negative visions on the future of robotics.

  12. ASSESSMENT OF STUDENTS’ PROFESSIONAL COMPETENCIES – THE FUTURE TEACHERS OF MATHEMATICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariya B. Shashkina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the investigation is to describe the authors’ approach to the assessment of the professional competence of the future teacher of mathematics.Methods. The methods involve comparative analysis of the Professional Standard of the teacher and the Federal State Educational Standards in teacher education, as well as the method of predictive analysis of modern educational situation.Results. Qualimetric approach to the structuring of the professional competencies of students is described; it allows concretizing the assessment object, to select the criteria and levels of its formedness, to trace the dynamics of development in the medium of profile preparation of a bachelor. The methodology of assessment a professional-profile competence of the future mathematics teachers is proposed; examples of the competence-assessment tools are provided.Scientific novelty. The study gives a detailed analysis of developing the innovative approach to competencies assessment as metasubject learning outcomes.Practical significance. The proposed method of competencies assessment can be used in the mathematical preparation of the future mathematics teacher, and can serve as a basis for monitoring the professional competencies of students.

  13. Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisinella, Valentina

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... of the LCA. The main outcome of this thesis is a systematic framework that can be used to assess future scenarios in LCAs of waste management systems. The framework combines approaches developed during the PhD study in order to systematically address the modelling implications of combining future scenarios...... and LCAs of waste management systems. The study developed a systematic definition of importance of LCA model parameters based on their input uncertainty and their sensitivity on results with a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) approach. Within LCAs of waste management systems, the GSA approach allowed...

  14. ASSESSMENT OF ALLERGENIC POTENTIAL OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS: AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbstractSpeakers and participants in the Workshop Assessment of the Allergenic Potential of Genetically Modified Foods met in breakout groups to discuss a number of issues including needs for future research. There was agreement that research should move forward quickly in t...

  15. Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Japan: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikuma, Toshinori; Matsuda, Osamu; Fujita, Kazuhiro; Ueno, Kazuhiko

    2016-01-01

    This article briefly reviews the history of intellectual assessment with children and youth in Japan, as well as current practices and future directions. The history of intelligence test use in Japan began in the early 20th century. Since the 21st century, three major intelligence tests, namely, the Wechsler Intelligence Scales, the Kaufman…

  16. Visions about Future: A New Scale Assessing Optimism, Pessimism, and Hope in Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Sgaramella, Teresa Maria; Ferrari, Lea; Nota, Laura; Santilli, Sara; Soresi, Salvatore

    2017-01-01

    This article reports the development and psychometric properties of visions about future (VAF), an instrument assessing hope, optimism, and pessimism. Three different studies involving Italian adolescents were conducted. With the first study 22 items were developed and the factor structure was verified. The second study, involving a second sample…

  17. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

    2015-01-01

    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  18. Future of America’s Forest and Rangelands: Forest Service 2010 Resources Planning Act Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest Service. U.S. Department of Agriculture

    2012-01-01

    The 2010 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment summarizes findings about the status, trends, and projected future of forests, rangelands, wildlife and fish, biodiversity, water, outdoor recreation, wilderness, and urban forests, as well as the effects of climate change upon these resources. The outlook for U.S. resources is largely influenced by a set of scenarios...

  19. Future of America's Forests and Rangelands: Update to the 2010 Resources Planning Act Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

    2016-01-01

    The Update to the 2010 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment summarizes findings about the status, trends, and projected future of forests, rangelands, wildlife, biodiversity, water, outdoor recreation, and urban forests, as well as the effects of climate change upon these resources. Varying assumptions about population and economic growth, land use change, and...

  20. Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    1999-09-01

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier tounderstand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent

  1. Assessing Future Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garry D. Peterson

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which the projected use of ecological services is substantially different. The work reported in this paper demonstrates how scenarios can be developed for a region and provides a starting point for a participatory discussion of alternative futures for northern Wisconsin. Although the future is unknowable, we hope that the assessment process begun in this paper will help the people of the Northern Highlands Lake District choose the future path of their region.

  2. Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

  3. Development and validation of an instrument to assess future orientation and resilience in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maggio, Ilaria; Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore

    2016-08-01

    The study is aimed at providing the development and initial validation of the Design My Future (DMF), which may be administered in career counseling and research activities to assess adolescents' future orientation and resilience. Two studies with two independent samples of Italian adolescents were conducted to examine psychometric requisites of DMF. Specifically, in the first study, after developing items and examined the content validity, the factorial structure, reliability and discriminant validity of the DMF were tested. In the second study, the measurement invariance across gender, conducing a sequence of nested CFA models, was evaluated. Results showed good psychometric support for the instrument with Italian adolescents.

  4. Current process and future path for health economic assessment of pharmaceuticals in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toumi, Mondher; Rémuzat, Cécile; El Hammi, Emna; Millier, Aurélie; Aballéa, Samuel; Chouaid, Christos; Falissard, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    The Social Security Funding Law for 2012 introduced the Economic and Public Health Assessment Committee (Commission Evaluation Economique et de Santé Publique, or CEESP) in the Social Security Code as a specialised committee affiliated with the Haute Autorité de Santé in charge of providing recommendations and health economic opinions. This article provides an in-depth description of the CEESP's structure and working methods, and analyses the impact of health economic assessment on market access of drugs in France. It also points out the areas of uncertainty and the conflicting rules following the introduction of the health economic assessment in France. The authors also provide their personal opinion on the likely future of health economic assessment of drugs in France, including the possible merge of the CEESP and the Transparency Committee, the implementation of a French threshold, and the extension of health economic assessment to a larger number of products.

  5. Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract for presentation on Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions. The abstract is attached.

  6. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

    2016-07-01

    Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios.

  7. Operational assessment of intermodality future in Belgium: Best-case scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Tawfik, Christine Maher Fouad; Limbourg, Sabine

    2017-01-01

    From the perspective of stimulating intermodal transport as an ecological and economically promising freight transport scheme in the EU, this paper is devoted to assess its future position with respect to crucial and plausible operational factors that were selected a priori. The study is conducted in the context of a best-case scenario development, within a rational and optimal decision making framework. We address this goal by designing a realistic medium-term network design and pricing mode...

  8. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moren, Lena

    2006-10-15

    This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis.

  9. Clinical reasoning assessment through medical expertise theories: past, present and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boushehri, Elham; Soltani Arabshahi, Kamran; Monajemi, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Exploration into the concept of "medical expert" dates back to more than 50 years ago, yet yielding three leading theories in the area of clinical reasoning, namely, knowledge structure, hypotheticdeductive, and dual process. Each theory defines "medical expert" in a dissimilar way. Therefore, the methods of assessment through which the experts are identified have been changed during the time. In this paper, we tried to categorize and introduce some widely used tests for identification of experts within the framework of existing main theories. Implementation of the proposed categorization for providing future assessment tools is discussed.

  10. Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Lebrun, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

  11. The future of Yellowcake: a global assessment of uranium resources and mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudd, Gavin M

    2014-02-15

    Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting - allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues.

  12. Testing and evaluation: the present and future of the assessment of medical professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haist, Steven A; Butler, Agata P; Paniagua, Miguel A

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this review is to highlight recent and potential future enhancements to the United States Licensing Examination (USMLE) program. The USMLE program is co-owned by the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) and the Federation of State Medical Boards. The USMLE includes four examinations: Step 1, Step 2 Clinical Knowledge, Step 2 Clinical Skills, and Step 3; every graduate of Liaison Committee on Medical Education-accredited allopathic medical schools and all international medical graduates must pass this examination series to practice medicine in the United States. From 2006 to 2009, the program underwent an indepth review resulting in five accepted recommendations. These recommendations have been the primary driver for many of the recent enhancements, such as an increased emphasis on foundational science and changes in the clinical skills examination, including more advanced communication skills assessment. These recommendations will continue to inform future changes such as access to references (e.g., a map of metabolic pathways) or decision-making tools for use during the examination. The NBME also provides assessment services globally to medical schools, students, residency programs, and residents. In 2015, >550,000 assessments were provided through the subject examination program, NBME self-assessment services, and customized assessment services.

  13. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2016-11-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  14. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  15. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  16. Blueprints for the assessment, treatment, and future study of catatonia in autism spectrum disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhossche, Dirk Marcel; Shah, Amitta; Wing, Lorna

    2006-01-01

    The blueprints for the assessment, treatment, and future study of catatonia in autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), which are submitted in this chapter aim to increase early recognition and treatment of catatonia in ASDs, show the urgency of controlled treatment trials, and increase collaborative and interdisciplinary research into the co-occurrence of these two enigmatic disorders. Catatonia should be assessed in any patient with ASDs when there is an obvious and marked deterioration in movement, pattern of activities, self-care, and practical skills, compared with previous levels, through a comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of medical and psychiatric symptoms. A formal diagnosis should be ascertained using ASD specific criteria for catatonia that takes into account baseline symptoms like muteness, echophenomena, stereotypy, negativism, or other psychomotor abnormalities. Any underlying medical and neurological conditions should be treated, and culprit medications or other substances that may cause catatonia should be eliminated. Separate treatment blueprints are presented for mild, moderate, and severe catatonia, featuring combinations of a psychological approach developed by Shah and Wing and medical treatments that have shown efficacy in catatonia: lorazepam challenge, lorazepam trial, lorazepam continuation, and bilateral electroconvulsive therapy (ECT). These treatment modalities in themselves are well established. Side effects and complications are known and manageable. Legal, ethical, and practice guidelines governing all treatment aspects should be followed. The treatment blueprints should be viewed as best estimates pending future controlled studies. The blueprint for the future study of catatonia in ASDs describes promising clinical and preclinical research avenues. Longitudinal studies need to assess the possible effect of early recognition and adequate treatment of catatonia in ASDs in order to avoid the impairment associated with chronicity. Effects of

  17. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  18. Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

    2016-01-01

    The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

  19. Future yields assessment of bioenergy crops in relation to climate change and technological development in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore L. Cosentino

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Bioenergy crops are expected to play an important role in reducing CO2 emission, in energy supply and in European energy policy. However, a sustainable bioenergy supply must be resilient to climate change and the impacts on agriculture at both global and regional scale. The purpose of this study was to forecast the potential distribution of several bioenergy crops based on agronomic and environmental constrains under current conditions and future scenarios (2020 and 2030 in European Union. Potential biomass yield, according to the category end use product achievable in each environmental zone of Europe at present and in the future available land have been also studied. Future yields were assessed according to two factors: technological development and climate change: the former was based on prospect of DG-Agriculture for conventional crops and expert judgments for bioenergy crops, while the latter based on relevant research papers and literature reviews which used site-specific crop growth models. Yields are expected to increase in northern Europe due to climate change and technological development, while in southerneastern Europe the negative effect of climate change will be mitigated by the technological development. The estimated total biomass production in Europe, on the basis of future yields and surplus land made available for energy crops, may not be sufficient to meet the needs of bioenergy supply as claimed in the European directive 2009/28/EC.

  20. The future of satellite remote sensing: A worldwide assessment and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, G. W.

    1984-01-01

    A frame-work in which to assess and predict the future prospects for satellite remote sensing markets is provided. The scope of the analysis is the satellite-related market for data, equipment, and services. It encompasses both domestic and international markets and contains an examination of the various market characteristics by market segment (e.g., Federal Government, State and Local Governments, Academic Organizations, Industrial Companies, and Individuals) and primary applications areas (e.g., Geology, Forestry, Land Resource Management, Agriculture and Cartography). The forecasts are derived from an analysis of both U.S. and foreign market data. The evolution and current status of U.S. and Foreign markets to arrive at market growth rates is evaluated. Circumstances and events which are likely to affect the future market development are examined. A market growth scenario is presented that is consistent with past data sales trends and takes into account the dynamic nature of the future satellite remote sensing market. Several areas of current and future business opportunities available in this market are discussed. Specific worldwide forecasts are presented in three market sectors for the period 1980 to 1990.

  1. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2016-08-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  2. Risk assessment of the impact of future volcanic eruptions on direct normal irradiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Blanc, Philippe; Vignola, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from Plinian volcanic eruptions affect the solar surface irradiance forcing by scattering the solar radiation as it passes through the Earth atmosphere. Since these aerosols have high single scattering albedos they mostly affect direct normal irradiances (DNI). The effect on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is less because some of the scattered irradiance reaches the surface as diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) and adds to the GHI. DNI is the essential input to concentrating solar thermal electric power (CSP/STE) and concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) plants. Therefore, an assessment of the future potential variability in the DNI resource caused by Plinian volcanic eruptions is desirable. Based on investigations of the El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions, the microphysical, and thereby optical, properties of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols are well known. Given these, radiative transfer computations of the DNI resource can be made. The DNI resource includes forward scattered irradiance within the acceptance angle of a given CSP/STE or CPV plant. The rarity of Plinian eruptions poses a challenge for assessing the statistical risk of future eruptions and its potential of risk in the electricity production. Here we present and discuss methods to account for these potential volcanic eruptions for technical and economical studies including scenarios with very high probability of exceedance (e.g. P99 scenarios) for risk assessment of DNI-based solar power projects.

  3. The future of Yellowcake: A global assessment of uranium resources and mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mudd, Gavin M., E-mail: Gavin.Mudd@monash.edu

    2014-02-01

    Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting — allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues. - Highlights: • An extensive data set on global uranium resources and classified by deposit type. • Comprehensive analysis of key trends, such as ore grades and recovery rates. • Energy and carbon intensity of production shows an increase as ore grades decline. • Mine rehabilitation often shows poor success or accounts of long-term effectiveness. • Real constraints on nuclear power remain safety and costs compared to alternatives.

  4. Innovating for the future? : An external assessment of the future-oriented governance of the Dutch innovation system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duin, van der P.; Graaf, de R.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the future-orientation of the Dutch innovation system and formulate recommendations to improve it. Design/methodology/approach: The approach takes the form of in-depth interviews with Dutch experts who are sufficiently independent to formulate relevan

  5. Innovating for the future? : An external assessment of the future-oriented governance of the Dutch innovation system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duin, van der P.; Graaf, de R.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the future-orientation of the Dutch innovation system and formulate recommendations to improve it. Design/methodology/approach: The approach takes the form of in-depth interviews with Dutch experts who are sufficiently independent to formulate relevan

  6. EASETECH Energy: Life Cycle Assessment of current and future Danish power systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turconi, Roberto; Damgaard, Anders; Bisinella, Valentina

    A new life cycle assessment (LCA) model software has been developed by DTU Environment, to facilitate detailed LCA of energy technologies. The model, EASETECH Energy, is dedicated to the specific technologies needed to assess energy production and energy systems and provides an unprecedented...... flexibility with respect to LCA modeling of these technologies. To illustrate the functionality of the model, preliminary results from a LCA of the Danish power system in 2010 as well as two future scenarios for 2030 are presented. In addition to providing a general overview of the environmental profile...... of a renewable based power system, specific focus is placed on the typical challenges encountered when performing an LCA of a power system. Further, the key characteristics of EASETECH Energy that can expedite the set-up of multiple scenarios and enhance transparency in the modelling are explained....

  7. EASETECH Energy: Life Cycle Assessment of current and future Danish power systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turconi, Roberto; Damgaard, Anders; Bisinella, Valentina

    A new life cycle assessment (LCA) model software has been developed by DTU Environment, to facilitate detailed LCA of energy technologies. The model, EASETECH Energy, is dedicated to the specific technologies needed to assess energy production and energy systems and provides an unprecedented...... flexibility with respect to LCA modeling of these technologies. To illustrate the functionality of the model, preliminary results from a LCA of the Danish power system in 2010 as well as two future scenarios for 2030 are presented. In addition to providing a general overview of the environmental profile...... of a renewable based power system, specific focus is placed on the typical challenges encountered when performing an LCA of a power system. Further, the key characteristics of EASETECH Energy that can expedite the set-up of multiple scenarios and enhance transparency in the modelling are explained....

  8. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  9. Assessment of future drought in Southwest China based on CMIP5 multimodel projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Chen, Wen; Zhou, Wen

    2014-09-01

    In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the paramount importance of assessing future changes in drought in Southwest China. Precipitation is likely to decrease over most parts of Southwest China around the beginning of the century, followed by widespread precipitation increases; the increase in potential evapotranspiration (PET), due to the joint effects of increased temperature and surface net radiation and decreased relative humidity, will overwhelm the whole region throughout the entire 21st century. In comparative terms, the enhancement of PET will outweigh that of precipitation, particularly under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, resulting in intensified drought. Generally, the drying tendency will be in the southeast portion, whereas the mountainous region in the northwest will become increasingly wetter owing to abundant precipitation increases. Droughts classified as moderate/severe according to historical standards will become the norm in the 2080s under RCP4.5/RCP8.5. Future drought changes will manifest different characteristics depending on the time scale: the magnitude of change at a time scale of 48 months is nearly twice as great as that at 3 months. Furthermore, we will see that not only will incidences of severe and extreme drought increase dramatically in the future, but extremely wet events will also become more probable.

  10. Assessment of Fire Occurrence and Future Fire Potential in Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, N. H. F.; Jenkins, L. K.; Loboda, T. V.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Whitley, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    An analysis of the occurrence of fire in Alaskan tundra was completed using the relatively complete historical record of fire for the region from 1950 to 2013. Spatial fire data for Alaskan tundra regions were obtained from the Alaska Large Fire Database for the region defined from vegetation and ecoregion maps. A detailed presentation of fire records available for assessing the fire regime of the tundra regions of Alaska as well as results evaluating fire size, seasonality, and general geographic and temporal trends is included. Assessment of future fire potential was determined for three future climate scenarios at four locations across the Alaskan tundra using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) weather variables were used for historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) time periods. The database includes 908 fire points and 463 fire polygons within the 482,931 km2 of Alaskan tundra. Based on the polygon database 25,656 km2 (6,340,000 acres) has burned across the six tundra ecoregions since 1950. Approximately 87% of tundra fires start in June and July across all ecoregions. Combining information from the polygon and points data records, the estimated average fire size for fire in the Alaskan Arctic region is 28.1 km2 (7,070 acres), which is much smaller than in the adjacent boreal forest region, averaging 203 km2 for high fire years. The largest fire in the database is the Imuruk Basin Fire which burned 1,680 km2 in 1954 in the Seward Peninsula region (Table 1). Assessment of future fire potential shows that, in comparison with the historical fire record, fire occurrence in Alaskan tundra is expected to increase under all three climate scenarios. Occurrences of high fire weather danger (>10 FWI) are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude in all regions modeled. The changes in fire weather conditions are expected to vary from one region to another in seasonal occurrence as well as severity and frequency

  11. The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudard, Ludovic; Madani, Kaveh; Romerio, Franco

    2016-04-01

    The future of hydropower depends on various drivers, and in particular on climate change, electricity market evolution and innovation in new storage technologies. Their impacts on the power plants' profitability can widely differ in regards of scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In this respect, the risk should not be expressed only in terms of expected revenue, but also of uncertainty. These two aspects must be considered to assess the future of hydropower. This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change, electricity market volatility and competing energy storage's technologies and quantifies them in terms of annual revenue. Our simulations integrate a glacio-hydrological model (GERM) with various electricity market data and models (mean reversion and jump diffusion). The medium (2020-50) and long-term (2070-2100) are considered thanks to various greenhouse gas scenarios (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and the stochastic approach for the electricity prices. An algorithm named "threshold acceptance" is used to optimize the reservoir operations. The impacts' scale, and the related uncertainties are presented for Mauvoisin, which is a storage-hydropower plant situated in the Swiss Alps, and two generic pure pumped-storage installations, which are assessed with the prices of 17 European electricity markets. The discussion will highlight the key differences between the impacts brought about by the drivers.

  12. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Popescu

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which are having fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB and makes an analysis of the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historic available data while future energy production is deduced from the maximum available water in the catchment, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin, were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

    Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called Vapidro-Aste released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering that first the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served and than hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  13. The Assessment of Future Human Actions at Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites: An international perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, D.R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd., (United Kindgom); Patera, E.S. [Nuclear Energy Agency, 75 - Paris (France)

    1994-04-01

    For some deep geological disposal systems, the level of confinement provided by the natural and engineered barriers is considered to be so high that the greatest long-term risks associated with waste disposal may arise from the possibility of future human actions breaching the natural and/or engineered barrier systems. Following a Workshop in 1989, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency established a Working Group on Assessment of Future Human Actions (FHA) a Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites. This Group met four times in the period 1991--1993, and has extensively reviewed approaches to and experience of incorporating the effects of FHA into long-term performance assessments (PAs). The Working Group`s report reviews the main issues concerning the treatment of FHA, presents a general framework for the quantitative, consideration of FHA in radioactive waste disposal programmes, and discusses means in reduce the risks associated with FHA. The Working Group concluded that FHA must be considered in PAs, although FHA where the actors were cognizant of the risks could be ignored. Credit can be taken for no more than several hundred years of active site control; additional efforts should therefore be taken to reduce the risks associated with FHA. International agreement on principles for the construction of FHA scenarios would build confidence, as would further discussion concerning regulatory policies for judging risks associated with FHA.

  14. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, I.; Brandimarte, L.; Perera, M. S. U.; Peviani, M.

    2012-08-01

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  15. Assessment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Caporali, E.

    2013-04-01

    This study extends a stochastic downscaling methodology to generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that express possible future climate conditions at a point-scale. The stochastic downscaling uses general circulation model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). Marginal distributions of factors of change are computed for several climate statistics using a Bayesian methodology that can weight GCM realizations based on the model relative performance with respect to a historical climate and a degree of disagreement in projecting future conditions. A Monte Carlo technique is used to sample the factors of change from their respective marginal distributions. As a comparison with traditional approaches, factors of change are also estimated by averaging GCM realizations. With either approach, the derived factors of change are applied to the climate statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. In this study, the time series are generated in an ensemble mode to fully reflect the uncertainty of GCM projections, climate stochasticity, as well as uncertainties of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology in reproducing future climate conditions for the periods of 2000-2009, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, using the period of 1962-1992 as the historical baseline are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The inferences of the methodology for the period of 2000-2009 are tested against observations to assess reliability of the stochastic downscaling procedure in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

  16. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-12-15

    This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

  17. Impact of a Cross-Institutional Assessment Designed to Shape Future IT Professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace Tan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available IT graduates need a suite of technical competencies and soft skills married with an understanding of the social and business contexts of the systems that they build. To instill in students an awareness of current IT industry practice coupled with the broader impact of their discipline in society, academics from Victoria University and Federation University initiated an across-institutional collaboration. The initiative resulted in a common formative assessment task undertaken by teams of students enrolled in each institution’s professional development units. An initial survey of students was undertaken prior to the assessment task. The survey queried students’ perceptions of a broad range of professional attitudes and skill sets needed by IT professionals when compared to non-skilled workers. Upon the completion of the assessment task, students were surveyed again as to their perceptions of the importance of personal skills, technical competencies, professional and team working skills, workplace knowledge, and cultural awareness for their future professional lives. Comparisons of both surveys’ results revealed that the cohort had a greater appreciation of technical abilities and team-working skills post the assessment task.

  18. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

    2015-01-01

    .... Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four...

  19. Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

    2017-04-01

    This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial

  20. Assessing environmental impacts of offshore wind farms: lessons learned and recommendations for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Helen; Brookes, Kate L; Thompson, Paul M

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind power provides a valuable source of renewable energy that can help reduce carbon emissions. Technological advances are allowing higher capacity turbines to be installed and in deeper water, but there is still much that is unknown about the effects on the environment. Here we describe the lessons learned based on the recent literature and our experience with assessing impacts of offshore wind developments on marine mammals and seabirds, and make recommendations for future monitoring and assessment as interest in offshore wind energy grows around the world. The four key lessons learned that we discuss are: 1) Identifying the area over which biological effects may occur to inform baseline data collection and determining the connectivity between key populations and proposed wind energy sites, 2) The need to put impacts into a population level context to determine whether they are biologically significant, 3) Measuring responses to wind farm construction and operation to determine disturbance effects and avoidance responses, and 4) Learn from other industries to inform risk assessments and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. As the number and size of offshore wind developments increases, there will be a growing need to consider the population level consequences and cumulative impacts of these activities on marine species. Strategically targeted data collection and modeling aimed at answering questions for the consenting process will also allow regulators to make decisions based on the best available information, and achieve a balance between climate change targets and environmental legislation.

  1. The Current and Future Role of Heart Rate Variability for Assessing and Training Compassion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, James N.; Doty, James R.; Petrocchi, Nicola; Gilbert, Paul

    2017-01-01

    The evolution of mammalian caregiving involving hormones, such as oxytocin, vasopressin, and the myelinated vagal nerve as part of the ventral parasympathetic system, enables humans to connect, co-regulate each other’s emotions and create prosociality. Compassion-based interventions draw upon a number of specific exercises and strategies to stimulate these physiological processes and create conditions of “interpersonal safeness,” thereby helping people engage with, alleviate, and prevent suffering. Hence, compassion-based approaches are connected with our evolved caring motivation and attachment and our general affiliative systems that help regulate distress. Physiologically, they are connected to activity of the vagus nerve and corresponding adaptive heart rate variability (HRV). HRV is an important physiological marker for overall health, and the body–mind connection. Therefore, there is significant value of training compassion to increase HRV and training HRV to facilitate compassion. Despite the significance of compassion in alleviating and preventing suffering, there remain difficulties in its precise assessment. HRV offers a useful form of measurement to assess and train compassion. Specific examples of what exercises can facilitate HRV and how to measure HRV will be described. This paper argues that the field of compassion science needs to move toward including HRV as a primary outcome measure in its future assessment and training, due to its connection to vagal regulatory activity, and its link to overall health and well-being. PMID:28337432

  2. Promoting Behavior Change from Alcohol Use through Mobile Technology: The Future of Ecological Momentary Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Amy M.; Hunter-Reel, Dorian; Hagman, Brett T.; Mitchell, Jessica

    2011-01-01

    Background Interactive and mobile technologies (i.e., smartphones such as Blackberries, iPhones, and palm-top computers) show promise as an efficacious and cost-effective means of communicating health-behavior risks, improving public health outcomes, and accelerating behavior change (Abroms and Maibach, 2008). The present study was conducted as a “needs assessment” to examine the current available mobile smartphone applications (e.g., apps) that utilize principles of ecological momentary assessment (EMA) -- daily self-monitoring or near real-time self-assessment of alcohol use behavior -- to promote positive behavior change, alcohol harm reduction, psycho-education about alcohol use, or abstinence from alcohol. Methods Data were collected and analyzed from iTunes for Apple iPhone©. An inventory assessed the number of available apps that directly addressed alcohol use and consumption, alcohol treatment, or recovery, and whether these apps incorporated empirically-based components of alcohol treatment. Results Findings showed that few apps addressed alcohol use behavior change or recovery. Aside from tracking drinking consumption, a minority utilized empirically-based components of alcohol treatment. Some apps claimed they could serve as an intervention, however no empirical evidence was provided. Conclusions More studies are needed to examine the efficacy of mobile technology in alcohol intervention studies. The large gap between availability of mobile apps and their use in alcohol treatment programs indicate several important future directions for research. PMID:21689119

  3. Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

  4. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  5. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  6. Assessment of the ATV-1 Re-Entry Observation Campaign for Future Re-Entry Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lips, T.; Lohle, S.; Marynowsky, T.; Rees, D.; Stenbeak-Nielsen, H. C.; Beks, M. L.; Hatton, J.

    2010-09-01

    This paper summarizes the midterm results of the currently ongoing ESA study “Assessment of the ATV-1 Reentry Observation Campaign for Future Re-entry Missions”. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the data obtained during a joint ESA/NASA airborne observation campaign of the destructive re-entry of ATV-1 Jules Verne which occurred on September 29, 2008. The presented results are focused on spectroscopic fragment characterization(material identification), frame-by-frame fragment tracking(manual and automatic) for various video recordings, 3D triangulation of the tracked fragments, and fragment propagation until complete demise or ground impact, including the actual size and location of the ATV-1 debris footprint. Fragment propagation analyses comprise also the derivation of aerodynamic fragment properties and potential delta velocities. These parameters are of high importance for the re-entry safety analysis for ATV-2 Johannes Kepler.

  7. Information resources for assessing health effects from chemical exposure: Challenges, priorities, and future issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seigel, S. [National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Issues related to developing information resources for assessing the health effects from chemical exposure include the question of how to address the individual political issues relevant to identifying and determining the timeliness, scientific credibility, and completeness of such kinds of information resources. One of the important ways for agencies to share information is through connection tables. This type of software is presently being used to build information products for some DHHS agencies. One of the challenges will be to convince vendors of data of the importance of trying to make data files available to communities that need them. In the future, information processing will be conducted with neural networks, object-oriented database management systems, and fuzzy-set technologies, and meta analysis techniques.

  8. Assessing future vegetation trends and restoration prospects in the Karst regions of Southwest China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, Xiaowei; Wang, Kelin; Brandt, Martin Stefan;

    2016-01-01

    To alleviate the severe rocky desertification and improve the ecological conditions in Southwest China, the national and local Chinese governments have implemented a series of Ecological Restoration Projects since the late 1990s. In this context, remote sensing can be a valuable tool for conserva......To alleviate the severe rocky desertification and improve the ecological conditions in Southwest China, the national and local Chinese governments have implemented a series of Ecological Restoration Projects since the late 1990s. In this context, remote sensing can be a valuable tool...... are utilized. The proposed framework of this analysis has been proven to work well for assessing restoration prospects in the study area, and due to the generic design, the method is expected to be applicable for other areas of complex landscapes in the world to explore future trends of vegetation....

  9. Assessment of CO2 reduction potentials through clean coal technologies for future power plants in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monna Rozana

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents CO2 reduction potentials employing clean coal technologies for power plants in Indonesia. Whenlow ranked coal from huge reserves cannot be excluded from coal-fired power plants to meet electricity demand, it is criticalfor Indonesia to adopt the best available clean coal technologies for its future coal-fired power plants in order to minimizeCO2 emissions in a long term. Several types of coal-fired technologies are considered to be the best match with Indonesia’ssituation by assessing CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants, levelized costs of electricity generation, and the cost ofCO2 avoidance. As a result, supercritical PC, IGCC, CFB, and PFBC technologies are presented as a consideration for policymaker in Indonesia.

  10. A Multivariate and Probabilistic Assessment of Drought in the Pacific Northwest under Observed and Future Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y. K.

    2015-12-01

    In lieu with the recent and anticipated more server and frequently droughts incidences in Yakima River Basin (YRB), a reliable and comprehensive drought assessment is deemed necessary to avoid major crop production loss and better manage the water right issues in the region during low precipitation and/or snow accumulation years. In this study, we have conducted frequency analysis of hydrological droughts and quantified associated uncertainty in the YRB under both historical and changing climate. Streamflow drought index (SDI) was employed to identify mutually correlated drought characteristics (e.g., severity, duration and peak). The historical and future characteristics of drought were estimated by applying tri-variate copulas probability distribution, which effectively describe the joint distribution and dependence of drought severity, duration, and peak. The associated prediction uncertainty, related to parameters of the joint probability and climate projections, were evaluated using the Bayesian approach with bootstrap resampling. For the climate change scenarios, two future representative pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from University of Idaho's Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) database were considered. The results from the study are expected to provide useful information towards drought risk management in YRB under anticipated climate changes.

  11. Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

    2017-04-01

    The Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) is a wine region, in the northern Portugal, recognized for the Porto wine, which is responsible for more than 60% of the total value of national wine exportations. Since the viticulture is highly dependent on weather/climate patterns, the global warming is expected to affect the areas suitable to the growth of a certain variety of grape, its production and quality. This highlights the need of regional studies that assess the future climate changes effects in the vineyard, which might allow an early adjustment. We explore future climate change in the DDR region using a high-resolution regional climate model for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Two future periods have been simulated using the emission scenario RCP8.5 - for the mid- (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100) - and compared to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCP8.5 is a "baseline" scenario without any climate mitigation and corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to other scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our regional WRF implementation uses three online-nested domains with increasing resolution at a downscaling ratio of three. The coarser domain of 81-km resolution covers part of the North Atlantic Ocean and most of the Europe. The innermost 9-km horizontal resolution domain includes the Iberian Peninsula, a portion of Northern Africa and the adjacent part of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our study uses this 9-km resolution domain and focuses on a confined area, which comprises the DDR. Such dynamical downscaling approach gives an advantage to assess climate effects on the DDR region, where the high horizontal resolution allows including effects of the oceanic coastline, local riverbeds and complex topography. The climatology of the DDR region determines the more suitable wine variety

  12. Managing hardwood-softwood mixtures for future forests in eastern North America: assessing suitability to projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Kabrick; Kenneth L. Clark; Anthony W. D' Amato; Daniel C. Dey; Laura S. Kenefic; Christel C. Kern; Benjamin O. Knapp; David A. MacLean; Patricia Raymond; Justin D. Waskiewicz

    2017-01-01

    Despite growing interest in management strategies for climate change adaptation, there are few methods for assessing the ability of stands to endure or adapt to projected future climates. We developed a means for assigning climate "Compatibility" and "Adaptability" scores to stands for assessing the suitability of tree species for projected climate...

  13. Assessing Current and Future Freshwater Flood Risk from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones via Insurance Claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Villarini, Gabriele; Montgomery, Marilyn; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Goska, Radoslaw

    2017-01-01

    The most recent decades have witnessed record breaking losses associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Flood-related damages represent a large portion of these losses, and although storm surge is typically the main focus in the media and of warnings, much of the TC flood losses are instead freshwater-driven, often extending far inland from the landfall locations. Despite this actuality, knowledge of TC freshwater flood risk is still limited. Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the TC freshwater flood risk from the full set of all significant flood events associated with U.S. landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2014. We find that the areas impacted by freshwater flooding are nearly equally divided between coastal and inland areas. We determine the statistical relationship between physical hazard and residential economic impact at a community level for the entire country. These results allow us to assess the potential future changes in TC freshwater flood risk due to changing climate pattern and urbanization in a more heavily populated U.S. Findings have important implications for flood risk management, insurance and resilience. PMID:28148952

  14. Qualitative assessment of patients’ attitudes and expectations toward BCIs and implications for future technology development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schicktanz, Silke; Amelung, Till; Rieger, Jochem W.

    2015-01-01

    Brain–computer–interfaces (BCIs) are important for the next generation of neuro-prosthesis innovations. Only few pilot projects have tested patients’ abilities to control BCIs as well as their satisfaction with the offered technologies. On the one hand, little is known about patients’ moral attitudes toward the benefit-risk-ratio of BCIs as well as their needs, priorities, and expectations. On the other hand, ethics experts intensively discuss the general risks of BCIs as well as the limits of neuro-enhancement. To our knowledge, we present here the first qualitative interview study with ten chronic patients matching the potential user categories for motor and communication BCIs to assess their practical and moral attitudes toward this technology. The interviews reveal practical and moral attitudes toward motor BCIs that can impact future technology development. We discuss our empirical findings on patients’ perspectives and compare them to neuroscientists’ and ethicists’ perspectives. Our analysis indicates only partial overlap between the potential users’ and the experts’ assessments of BCI-technology. It points out the importance of considering the needs and desires of the targeted patient group. Based on our findings, we suggest a multi-fold approach to the development of clinical BCIs, rooted in the participatory technology-development. We conclude that clinical BCI development needs to be explored in a disease-related and culturally sensitive way. PMID:25964745

  15. Qualitative assessment of patients’ attitudes and expectations towards BCIs and implications for future technology development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silke eSchicktanz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Brain-Computer-Interfaces (BCIs are important for the next generation of neuro-prosthesis innovations. Only few pilot projects have tested patients’ abilities to control BCIs as well as their satisfaction with the offered technologies. On the one hand, little is known about patients’ moral attitudes towards the benefit-risk-ratio of BCIs as well as their needs, priorities, and expectations. On the other hand, ethics experts intensively discuss the general risks of BCIs as well as the limits of neuro-enhancement. To our knowledge, we present here the first qualitative interview study with ten chronic patients matching the potential user categories for motor and communication BCIs to assess their practical and moral attitudes towards this technology. The interviews reveal practical and moral attitudes towards motor BCIs that can impact future technology development. We discuss our empirical findings on patients’ perspectives and compare them to neuroscientists’ and ethicists’ perspectives. This analysis indicates only partial overlap between the potential users’ and the experts’ assessments of BCI-technology. It points out the importance of considering the needs and desires of the targeted patient group. Based on our findings, we suggest a multi-fold approach to the development of clinical BCIs, rooted in the participatory technology-development. We conclude that clinical BCI development needs to be explored in a disease-related and culturally sensitive way.

  16. THE ASSESSMENT OF ENTREPRENEURIAL PERSONALITY: THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Suárez-Álvarez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is fundamental in modern society because it represents an important source of innovation, employment, productivity, and growth. While the first theoretical models arose from economic and sociological approaches, psychology provides models that integrate different aspects such as cognitions, attitudes and personality, which allow a more detailed study. The purpose of this paper is to show the main contributions of psychology to the assessment of the enterprising personality. For this purpose, the main models and instruments developed to date were reviewed. The results confirm that the enterprising personality has a multidimensional structure and eight personality traits can be highlighted: achievement motivation, risk-taking, autonomy, self-efficacy, stress tolerance, innovativeness, internal locus of control, and optimism. From a methodological point of view, Item Response Theory and Computerised Adaptive Tests represent the most advanced and modern methods for assessing enterprising personality. There are currently several measurement instruments available. Future areas of research should be directed at the construction of multidimensional models as well as providing alternatives that facilitate a reduction in social desirability and other biases inherent in self-reports.

  17. Macro-economic assessment of flood risk in Italy under current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrera, Lorenzo; Koks, Elco; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Aerts, Jeroen; Standardi, Gabriele

    2014-05-01

    This paper explores an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect costs of fluvial flooding to estimate current and future fluvial flood risk in Italy. Our methodology combines a Geographic Information System spatial approach, with a general economic equilibrium approach using a downscaled modified version of a Computable General Equilibrium model at NUTS2 scale. Given the level of uncertainty in the behavior of disaster-affected economies, the simulation considers a wide range of business recovery periods. We calculate expected annual losses for each NUTS2 region, and exceedence probability curves to determine probable maximum losses. Given a certain acceptable level of risk, we describe the conditions of flood protection and business recovery periods under which losses are contained within this limit. Because of the difference between direct costs, which are an overestimation of stock losses, and indirect costs, which represent the macro-economic effects, our results have different policy meanings. While the former is relevant for post-disaster recovery, the latter is more relevant for public policy issues, particularly for cost-benefit analysis and resilience assessment.

  18. Assessing Current and Future Freshwater Flood Risk from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones via Insurance Claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Villarini, Gabriele; Montgomery, Marilyn; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Goska, Radoslaw

    2017-02-01

    The most recent decades have witnessed record breaking losses associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Flood-related damages represent a large portion of these losses, and although storm surge is typically the main focus in the media and of warnings, much of the TC flood losses are instead freshwater-driven, often extending far inland from the landfall locations. Despite this actuality, knowledge of TC freshwater flood risk is still limited. Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the TC freshwater flood risk from the full set of all significant flood events associated with U.S. landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2014. We find that the areas impacted by freshwater flooding are nearly equally divided between coastal and inland areas. We determine the statistical relationship between physical hazard and residential economic impact at a community level for the entire country. These results allow us to assess the potential future changes in TC freshwater flood risk due to changing climate pattern and urbanization in a more heavily populated U.S. Findings have important implications for flood risk management, insurance and resilience.

  19. Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments of Pyroclastic Density Currents: ongoing practices and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Sandri, Laura; Ramona Stefanescu, Elena; Patra, Abani; Marzocchi, Warner; Costa, Antonio; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2014-05-01

    Explosive volcanoes and, especially, Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs) pose an enormous threat to populations living in the surroundings of volcanic areas. Difficulties in the modeling of PDCs are related to (i) very complex and stochastic physical processes, intrinsic to their occurrence, and (ii) to a lack of knowledge about how these processes actually form and evolve. This means that there are deep uncertainties (namely, of aleatory nature due to point (i) above, and of epistemic nature due to point (ii) above) associated to the study and forecast of PDCs. Consequently, the assessment of their hazard is better described in terms of probabilistic approaches rather than by deterministic ones. What is actually done to assess probabilistic hazard from PDCs is to couple deterministic simulators with statistical techniques that can, eventually, supply probabilities and inform about the uncertainties involved. In this work, some examples of both PDC numerical simulators (Energy Cone and TITAN2D) and uncertainty quantification techniques (Monte Carlo sampling -MC-, Polynomial Chaos Quadrature -PCQ- and Bayesian Linear Emulation -BLE-) are presented, and their advantages, limitations and future potential are underlined. The key point in choosing a specific method leans on the balance between its related computational cost, the physical reliability of the simulator and the pursued target of the hazard analysis (type of PDCs considered, time-scale selected for the analysis, particular guidelines received from decision-making agencies, etc.). Although current numerical and statistical techniques have brought important advances in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment from PDCs, some of them may be further applicable to more sophisticated simulators. In addition, forthcoming improvements could be focused on three main multidisciplinary directions: 1) Validate the simulators frequently used (through comparison with PDC deposits and other simulators), 2) Decrease

  20. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  1. Projecting future grassland productivity to assess the sustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in the Greater Platte River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phyual, Khem

    2014-01-01

    This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

  2. Big Feet: Assessing the Current and Future Impact of Population Size on a Country's Ecological Footprint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, R. S.; Takaro, T.; Miller, C.; Hogg, E.; Anema, A.; Gislason, M.; Parkes, M.

    2015-12-01

    Background: Ecological footprints assess the land and water a population needs to procure its resources and handle its waste. Measures derived from these footprints look at a population's ecological overshoot rather than weighting the population to its footprint. The aim of this study was to examine the latter approach by determining what the current and future weighted world population, by income gradient, would be if everyone lived within the boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Methods: Country-specific ecological footprints and populations for 2007 were obtained from the Global Footprint Network (www.footprintnetwork.org); and projected populations were collected from US Census Bureau (www.census.gov). Footprint growth to 2050 was based on a business as usual approach developed by Kitzes et al. in Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2008). Weighted population estimates were derived by multiplying actual population by the ratio of the country's footprint to overall boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Results: The weighted global population increased by 2.4 billion people (37%) in 2007 based on our adjustment. High and middle-income country populations increased, by 242% and 10%, respectively, while low-income country populations decreased by 33%. The weighed global population in 2050 increased by 10.1 billion with the majority of this growth occurring in high-income countries -- 437% versus 67% and 9% respectively for medium and low-income countries. Conclusions: Our study showed that current and future global weighted demographic and ecological impact would be felt mainly in high-income countries even though actual population growth would occur mainly in low and middle-income countries.

  3. Assessing the impact of future land use and land cover changes on climate over Brazilian semiarid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, A. M.; Alvalá, R. S.; Kubota, P. Y.; Vieira, R.

    2013-12-01

    The continental surface vegetal cover has been considerably changed by human activities, mainly through natural vegetation conversion in grasslands. Such changes in surface cover may impact the regional and global climates, through of the changes in biophysical processes and CO2 exchanges between vegetation and atmosphere. In recent decades, most of the Brazilian territory has been presenting transformation in the land use/cover spatial patterns. The typical vegetation of the Brazilian semiarid, known as caatinga (closed shrubland) had been replaced by pasture lands. Based on that, the main objective of this work was to investigate the impacts of future land cover and land use changes (LCLUC) on surface processes and on the climate of Brazilian semiarid region. Numerical experiments using the AGCM/CPTEC/IBIS were performed in order to investigate the impacts of LCLUC on the climate of Brazilian semiarid due to the replacement of natural vegetation by pasture and degraded areas. The climate impacts of LUCC were assessed using climate simulations considering two scenarios of vegetation distribution: i) Potential Vegetation (Control) and ii) Future scenario of the vegetation: maximum pasture limited by areas of desert and semidesert. These degraded areas were obtained from the future projection of the biome distribution in South America developed by Salazar Velasquez (2009) using CPTEC PVMReg and emission scenarios A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In general, the simulation results showed that the LCLUC, due to the changes in relevant surface variables, has caused alterations in local and neighborhood regions climate. The LCLUC leads to a decrease in mean rainfall during dry season at study area. A meridional dipole pattern with near surface temperature increase (reduction) in the northern (southern) areas of semiarid was found. The results also highlight that LUCC led to changes in the components of the surface energy and carbon balance

  4. Obstetrician-assessed maternal health at pregnancy predicts offspring future health.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debbie A Lawlor

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the association between obstetrician assessment of maternal physical health at the time of pregnancy and offspring cardiovascular disease risk. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We examined this association in a birth cohort of 11,106 individuals, with 245,000 person years of follow-up. We were concerned that any associations might be explained by residual confounding, particularly by family socioeconomic position. In order to explore this we used multivariable regression models in which we adjusted for a range of indicators of socioeconomic position and we explored the specificity of the association. Specificity of association was explored by examining associations with other health related outcomes. Maternal physical health was associated with cardiovascular disease: adjusted (socioeconomic position, complications of pregnancy, birthweight and childhood growth at mean age 5 hazard ratio comparing those described as having poor or very poor health at the time of pregnancy to those with good or very good health was 1.55 (95%CI: 1.05, 2.28 for coronary heart disease, 1.91 (95%CI: 0.99, 3.67 for stroke and 1.57 (95%CI: 1.13, 2.18 for either coronary heart disease or stroke. However, this association was not specific. There were strong associations for other outcomes that are known to be related to socioeconomic position (3.61 (95%CI: 1.04, 12.55 for lung cancer and 1.28 (95%CI:1.03, 1.58 for unintentional injury, but not for breast cancer (1.10 (95%CI:0.48, 2.53. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: These findings demonstrate that a simple assessment of physical health (based on the appearance of eyes, skin, hair and teeth of mothers at the time of pregnancy is a strong indicator of the future health risk of their offspring for common conditions that are associated with poor socioeconomic position and unhealthy behaviours. They do not support a specific biological link between maternal health across her life course and

  5. Aeromedical evacuation-relevant hypobaria worsens axonal and neurologic injury in rats after underbody blast-induced hyperacceleration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proctor, Julie L; Mello, Kaitlin T; Fang, Raymond; Puche, Adam C; Rosenthal, Robert E; Fourney, William L; Leiste, Ulrich H; Fiskum, Gary

    2017-07-01

    Occupants of military vehicles targeted by explosive devices often suffer from traumatic brain injury (TBI) and are typically transported by the aeromedical evacuation (AE) system to a military medical center within a few days. This study tested the hypothesis that exposure of rats to AE-relevant hypobaria worsens cerebral axonal injury and neurologic impairment caused by underbody blasts. Anesthetized adult male rats were secured within cylinders attached to a metal plate, simulating the hull of an armored vehicle. An explosive located under the plate was detonated, resulting in a peak vertical acceleration force on the plate and occupant rats of 100G. Rats remained under normobaria or were exposed to hypobaria equal to 8,000 feet in an altitude chamber for 6 hours, starting at 6 hours to 6 days after blast. At 7 days, rats were tested for vestibulomotor function using the balance beam walking task and euthanized by perfusion. The brains were then analyzed for axonal fiber injury. The number of internal capsule silver-stained axonal fibers was greater in animals exposed to 100G blast than in shams. Animals exposed to hypobaria starting at 6 hours to 6 days after blast exhibited more silver-stained fibers than those not exposed to hypobaria. Rats exposed to 100% oxygen (O2) during hypobaria at 24 hours postblast displayed greater silver staining and more balance beam foot-faults, in comparison with rats exposed to hypobaria under 21% O2. Exposure of rats to blast-induced acceleration of 100G increases cerebral axonal injury, which is significantly exacerbated by exposure to hypobaria as early as 6 hours and as late as 6 days postblast. Rats exposed to underbody blasts and then to hypobaria under 100% O2 exhibit increased axonal damage and impaired motor function compared to those subjected to blast and hypobaria under 21% O2. These findings raise concern about the effects of AE-related hypobaria on TBI victims, the timing of AE after TBI, and whether these effects

  6. Comparison of personality characteristics on the trainees with different performance in aeromedical physiological training%航空生理训练成绩不同者个性特征比较

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘敏; 伊丽; 侯莎; 刘晓鹏; 金朝

    2010-01-01

    目的 了解航空生理训练参训人员的个性特征,探讨在大型航空生理训练中,影响训练成绩的心理因素,为今后指导航空生理训练提供帮助.方法 采用卡特尔16种个性因素问卷(16 personality factor questionnaire,16PF)、艾森克人格问卷简式量表中国版(Eysenck personality questionnaire-revised,short scale for Chinese,EPQ-RSC)和应付方式问卷,对参加离心机试验和低压舱试验的35名健康志愿者进行心理测查.根据离心机试验结果将受试者分为+Gz耐力7 G以上组与6 G以下组;根据低压舱试验结果将受试者分为16 km以上高空加压供氧试验完成组与未完成组.结果在离心机试验中,12名受试者完成了7 G以上抗荷耐力试验,23名未完成;16PF的聪慧性、实验性、独立性和紧张性4个因素,EPQ的内外向维度、应付方式问卷的求助、合理化和退避,两组相比差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05或P<0.01).低压舱试验中,24名受试者完成了16 km以上高空加压供氧试验,11名未完成;16PF的稳定性、恃强性、怀疑性、世故性,以及次级因素的适应与焦虑性和心理健康者的人格因素,EPQ的内外向维度、应付方式问卷的退避,两组相比差异有统计学意义(P<0.05或P<0.01).结论 参训人员的不同个性特征对航空生理训练效果有影响.%Objective To investigate the personality characteristics of trainees in aeromedical physiological training and probe into the psychological factors influencing on training performance so as to provide help for instructing future aeromedical physiological training.Methods Sixteen personality factor questionnaire(16PF), Eysenck personality questionnaire-revised, short scale for Chinese, (EPQ-RSC) and coping behaviors questionnaire were adopted for psychological test on 35 volunteers who participated in centrifuge and hypobaric chamber trainings.Subjects were both divided into above 7 G and below 6 G groups based on the

  7. Systems Thinking for Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment: A Review of Recent Developments, Applications, and Future Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuri Cihat Onat

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Tracking the environmental impacts of production, use, and disposal of products (e.g., goods, and services have been an important issue in the global economy. Although Life Cycle Assessment (LCA is a widely applied method to track these environmental impacts and support policies, it has certain limitations and an isolated way of evaluating the environmental impacts with no consideration of social and economic impacts and mechanisms. To overcome the limits of current LCA, three mechanisms have been proposed in the literature: (1 broadening the indicators by including social and economic indicators in addition to the environmental impacts; (2 broadening the scope of analysis from product-level assessment to national and global levels; (3 deepening the assessment by inclusion of more mechanisms to account for interrelations among the system elements, uncertainty analysis, stakeholder involvement, etc. With these developments, LCA has been evolving into a new framework called Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA. Practical application of LCSA requires integration of various methods, tools, and disciplines. In this study, a comprehensive literature review is conducted to investigate recent developments, current challenges, and future perspectives in the LCSA literature. According to the review, a high number (40% of LCSA studies are from the environmental science discipline, while contributions from other disciplines such as economics (3% and social sciences (9% are very low. On broadening the scope of analysis, 58% of the studies are product-level works, while 37% quantified the impacts at national level and achieved an economy-wide analysis, and only 5% of the studies were able to quantify the global impacts of products using LCSA framework. Furthermore, current applications of LCSA have not considered the rebound effects, feedback mechanisms, and interrelations of the system of interest sufficiently. To address these challenges, we present a

  8. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  9. Decisional tool to assess current and future process robustness in an antibody purification facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonier, Adam; Simaria, Ana Sofia; Smith, Martin; Farid, Suzanne S

    2012-07-01

    Increases in cell culture titers in existing facilities have prompted efforts to identify strategies that alleviate purification bottlenecks while controlling costs. This article describes the application of a database-driven dynamic simulation tool to identify optimal purification sizing strategies and visualize their robustness to future titer increases. The tool harnessed the benefits of MySQL to capture the process, business, and risk features of multiple purification options and better manage the large datasets required for uncertainty analysis and optimization. The database was linked to a discrete-event simulation engine so as to model the dynamic features of biopharmaceutical manufacture and impact of resource constraints. For a given titer, the tool performed brute force optimization so as to identify optimal purification sizing strategies that minimized the batch material cost while maintaining the schedule. The tool was applied to industrial case studies based on a platform monoclonal antibody purification process in a multisuite clinical scale manufacturing facility. The case studies assessed the robustness of optimal strategies to batch-to-batch titer variability and extended this to assess the long-term fit of the platform process as titers increase from 1 to 10 g/L, given a range of equipment sizes available to enable scale intensification efforts. Novel visualization plots consisting of multiple Pareto frontiers with tie-lines connecting the position of optimal configurations over a given titer range were constructed. These enabled rapid identification of robust purification configurations given titer fluctuations and the facility limit that the purification suites could handle in terms of the maximum titer and hence harvest load.

  10. An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Services in Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    2003-06-10

    This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

  11. An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Srevices in Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    2004-04-29

    This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

  12. Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity generation in the United States. Cumulative installed capacity was more than 74,000 megawatts (MW) at year-end 2015 and wind power supplied 4.7% of total 2015 U.S. electricity generation. Despite the growth of the wind power industry, the distributed wind market has remained limited. Cumulative installations of distributed wind through 2015 totaled 934 MW. This first-of-a-kind exploratory analysis characterizes the future opportunity for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities. This work focuses only on the grid-connected, behind-the-meter subset of the broader distributed wind market. We estimate this segment to be approximately half of the 934 MW of total installed distributed wind capacity at year-end 2015. Potential from other distributed wind market segments including systems installed in front of the meter (e.g., community wind) and in remote, off-grid locations is not assessed in this analysis and therefore, would be additive to results presented here. These other distributed wind market segments are not considered in this initial effort because of their relatively unique economic and market attributes.

  13. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape.

  14. Deployment Related Risk of Incident Mental Health Conditions Among Aeromedical Evacuation Crewmembers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Protective Posture NCO Non-commissioned Officer PCM Primary Care Manager PDHA Post-Deployment Health Assessment PDMH Post-Deployment Mental Health...sand/dust or lasers, experienced a vehicular accident in the past, or have had to utilize mission-orientated protective posture (MOPP) gear were at...personal hygiene supplies. To cope with these tough living and working conditions, flight nurses relied on their strong sense of faith, sense of

  15. Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minoli, Ignacio; Avila, Luciano Javier

    2017-02-26

    The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.

  16. On the future of civilian plutonium: An assessment of technological impediments to nuclear terrorism and proliferation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avedon, Roger Edmond

    This dissertation addresses the value of developing diversion- and theft-resistant nuclear power technology, given uncertain future demand for nuclear power, and uncertain risks of nuclear terrorism and of proliferation from the reprocessing of civilian plutonium. The methodology comprises four elements: Economics. An economic growth model coupled with market penetration effects for plutonium and for the hypothetical new technology provides a range of estimates for future nuclear demand. A flow model accounts for the longevity of capital assets (nuclear plants) over time. Terrorism. The commercial nuclear fuel cycle may provide a source of fissile material for terrorists seeking to construct a crude nuclear device. An option value model is used to estimate the effects of the hypothetical new technology on reducing the probability of theft. A game theoretic model is used to explore the deterrence value of physical security and then to draw conclusions about how learning on the part of terrorists or security forces might affect the theft estimate. The principal uncertainties in the theft model can be updated using Bayesian techniques as new data emerge. Proliferation. Access to fissile material is the principal technical impediment to a state's acquisition of nuclear weapons. A game theoretic model is used to determine the circumstances under which a state may proliferate via diversion. The model shows that the hypothetical new technology will have little value for counter-proliferation if diversion is not a preferred proliferation method. A technology policy analysis of the choice of proliferation method establishes that diversion is unlikely to be used because it has no constituency among the important parties to the decision, namely the political leadership, the scientific establishment, and the military. Value. The decision whether to develop a diversion- and theft-resistant fuel cycle depends on the perceived value of avoiding nuclear terrorism and proliferation

  17. The Future of Self-Assessment in Classroom Practice: Reframing Self-Assessment as a Core Competency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gavin T. L.; Harris, Lois R.

    2014-01-01

    Formative assessment policies and self-regulation theories argue that student self-assessment of their own work and processes are useful for raising academic performance and self-regulatory skills. However, research into student self-evaluation raises serious doubts about the quality of self-assessment as an assessment process and identifies…

  18. A Future-Based Risk Assessment for the Survivability of Long Range Strike Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-03-01

    not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government...projections of current situations into the future to develop alternative scenarios, and (in some cases) devising a future world then “ backcasting ...Council developed five future world scenarios. They began by establishing some basic economic, social and policy factors, then refined their models

  19. The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

    2015-04-01

    There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation

  20. How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    2015-01-01

    When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered. In this......When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered....... In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts...... climate, soil, water loss and production parameters. Secondly, the handling of these factors in the inventory modeling is discussed and finally implemented in the case study. Our approach follows a 3-step procedure consisting of: (1) definition of a baseline scenario at the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI...

  1. Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

  2. Assessing the Threat of Amphibian Chytrid Fungus in the Albertine Rift: Past, Present and Future.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracie A Seimon

    Full Text Available Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, the cause of chytridiomycosis, is a pathogenic fungus that is found worldwide and is a major contributor to amphibian declines and extinctions. We report results of a comprehensive effort to assess the distribution and threat of Bd in one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots, the Albertine Rift in central Africa. In herpetological surveys conducted between 2010 and 2014, 1018 skin swabs from 17 amphibian genera in 39 sites across the Albertine Rift were tested for Bd by PCR. Overall, 19.5% of amphibians tested positive from all sites combined. Skin tissue samples from 163 amphibians were examined histologically; of these two had superficial epidermal intracorneal fungal colonization and lesions consistent with the disease chytridiomycosis. One amphibian was found dead during the surveys, and all others encountered appeared healthy. We found no evidence for Bd-induced mortality events, a finding consistent with other studies. To gain a historical perspective about Bd in the Albertine Rift, skin swabs from 232 museum-archived amphibians collected as voucher specimens from 1925-1994 were tested for Bd. Of these, one sample was positive; an Itombwe River frog (Phrynobatrachus asper collected in 1950 in the Itombwe highlands. This finding represents the earliest record of Bd in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We modeled the distribution of Bd in the Albertine Rift using MaxEnt software, and trained our model for improved predictability. Our model predicts that Bd is currently widespread across the Albertine Rift, with moderate habitat suitability extending into the lowlands. Under climatic modeling scenarios our model predicts that optimal habitat suitability of Bd will decrease causing a major range contraction of the fungus by 2080. Our baseline data and modeling predictions are important for comparative studies, especially if significant changes in amphibian health status or climactic conditions

  3. Assessing the Threat of Amphibian Chytrid Fungus in the Albertine Rift: Past, Present and Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seimon, Tracie A; Ayebare, Samuel; Sekisambu, Robert; Muhindo, Emmanuel; Mitamba, Guillain; Greenbaum, Eli; Menegon, Michele; Pupin, Fabio; McAloose, Denise; Ammazzalorso, Alyssa; Meirte, Danny; Lukwago, Wilbur; Behangana, Mathias; Seimon, Anton; Plumptre, Andrew J

    2015-01-01

    Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the cause of chytridiomycosis, is a pathogenic fungus that is found worldwide and is a major contributor to amphibian declines and extinctions. We report results of a comprehensive effort to assess the distribution and threat of Bd in one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots, the Albertine Rift in central Africa. In herpetological surveys conducted between 2010 and 2014, 1018 skin swabs from 17 amphibian genera in 39 sites across the Albertine Rift were tested for Bd by PCR. Overall, 19.5% of amphibians tested positive from all sites combined. Skin tissue samples from 163 amphibians were examined histologically; of these two had superficial epidermal intracorneal fungal colonization and lesions consistent with the disease chytridiomycosis. One amphibian was found dead during the surveys, and all others encountered appeared healthy. We found no evidence for Bd-induced mortality events, a finding consistent with other studies. To gain a historical perspective about Bd in the Albertine Rift, skin swabs from 232 museum-archived amphibians collected as voucher specimens from 1925-1994 were tested for Bd. Of these, one sample was positive; an Itombwe River frog (Phrynobatrachus asper) collected in 1950 in the Itombwe highlands. This finding represents the earliest record of Bd in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We modeled the distribution of Bd in the Albertine Rift using MaxEnt software, and trained our model for improved predictability. Our model predicts that Bd is currently widespread across the Albertine Rift, with moderate habitat suitability extending into the lowlands. Under climatic modeling scenarios our model predicts that optimal habitat suitability of Bd will decrease causing a major range contraction of the fungus by 2080. Our baseline data and modeling predictions are important for comparative studies, especially if significant changes in amphibian health status or climactic conditions are encountered

  4. Assessing the exposure of lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) to future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Andreas L S; Pie, Marcio R; Passos, Fernando C

    2014-06-01

    Understanding how biodiversity will respond to climate change is a major challenge in conservation science. Climatic changes are likely to impose serious threats to many organisms, especially those with narrow distribution ranges, small populations and low dispersal capacity. Lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) are endangered primates endemic to Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF), and all four living species are typical examples of these aggravating conditions. Here, we integrate ecological niche modeling and GIS-based information about BAF remnants and protected areas to estimate the exposure (i.e., the extent of climate change predicted to be experienced by a species) of current suitable habitats to climate change for 2050 and 2080, and to evaluate the efficacy of existing reserves to protect climatically suitable areas. Niche models were built using Maxent and then projected onto seven global circulation models derived from the A1B climatic scenario. According to our projections, the occurrence area of L. caissara will be little exposed to climate change. Western populations of L. chrysomelas could be potentially exposed, while climatically suitable habitats will be maintained only in part of the eastern region. Protected areas that presently harbor large populations of L. chrysopygus and L. rosalia will not retain climatic suitability by 2080. Monitoring trends of exposed populations and protecting areas predicted to hold suitable conditions should be prioritized. Given the potential exposure of key lion tamarin populations, we stress the importance of conducting additional studies to assess other aspects of their vulnerability (i.e., sensitivity to climate and adaptive capacity) and, therefore, to provide a more solid framework for future management decisions in the context of climate change. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Radiation binary targeted therapy for HER-2 positive breast cancers: assumptions, theoretical assessment and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mundy, Daniel W [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, 400 Central Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47909 (United States); Harb, Wael [Horizon Oncology, The Care Group, Unity Medical Center, Lafayette, IN 47901 (United States); Jevremovic, Tatjana [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, 400 Central Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47909 (United States)

    2006-03-21

    neutron irradiation treatment facilities are examined for this application. The tumour boron concentrations and tumour to healthy tissue concentration ratios required to deliver 50 Gy-Eq to the tumour without exceeding 18 Gy-Eq in the skin are determined, as well as the associated therapeutic ratios. Discussion is provided to address the future research direction for assessing the feasibility of the proposed concept.

  6. Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Colette

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment including varying assumptions on climate and energy access policies are investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric chemistry transport models.

    A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the model projection. Last, the modelling experiment is linked to a hind-cast study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models were extensively documented.

    The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone precursors such as NOx will drop to 30% to 50% of their current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O3 will slightly increase in NOx saturated areas but the overall O3 burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O3 levels for health (SOMO35 will be reduced down to 45% to 70% of their current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of daily maximumO3 is higher than 120 μg m-3 more than 25 days per year will drop from 43% down to 2 to 8%.

    We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both scenarios are the main factors leading to the

  7. Critical thinking: assessing the risks to the future security of supply of critical metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Gus

    2015-04-01

    Increasing world population, the spread of prosperity across the globe and the demands of new technologies have led to a revival of concerns about the availability of raw materials needed by society. Despite scare stories about resource depletion, physical exhaustion of minerals is considered to be unlikely. However, we do need to know which materials might be of concern so that we can develop strategies to secure adequate supplies and to mitigate the effects of supply disruption. This requirement has led to renewed interest in criticality, a term that is generally used to refer to metals and minerals of high economic importance that have a relatively high likelihood of supply disruption. The European Union (EU) developed a quantitative methodology for the assessment of criticality which led to the definition of 14 raw materials as critical to the EU economy (EC, 2010). This has succeeded in raising awareness of potential supply issues and in helping to prioritise requirements for new policies and supporting research. The EU has recently assessed a larger number of candidate materials of which 20 are now identified as critical to the EU (EC, 2014). These include metals such as indium, mostly used in flat-screen displays, antimony for flame retardants and cobalt for rechargeable batteries, alloys and a host of other products. Although there is no consensus on the methodology for criticality assessments and broad analyses at this scale are inevitably imperfect, they can, nevertheless, provide early warning of supply problems. However, in order to develop more rigorous and dynamic assessments of future availability detailed analysis of the whole life-cycle of individual metals to identify specific problems and develop appropriate solutions is required. New policies, such as the Raw Materials Initiative (2008) and the European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (2013), have been developed by the European Commission (EC) and are aimed at securing sustainable

  8. Modelling cereal crops to assess future climate risk for family food self-sufficiency in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Traore, Bouba; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Wijk, van Mark T.; Corbeels, Marc; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E.

    2017-01-01

    Future climate change will have far reaching consequences for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, the majority of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Here we assessed the farm-level impact of climate change on family food self-sufficiency and evaluated potential adaptation optio

  9. A stochastic forest fire model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. D' Andrea; P. Fiorucci; T.P. Holmes

    2011-01-01

    Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and...

  10. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu [Emerging Risk Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma (Italy); Fink-Gremmels, J. [Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Yalelaan 104, 3584 CM Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

  11. Synchronous rectal and gastric cancer in a fighter pilot: aeromedical concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Guo-Li; Wei, Xue-Ming; Xu, Xian-Rong; Li, De-Chang; Wang, Shi-Lin; Gu, Jin

    2013-06-01

    Synchronous cancer of the stomach and rectum is very rare. In a special population of pilots, especially fighter pilots, synchronous rectal and gastric cancer is much more uncommon. We herein report a case of synchronous carcinoma of the rectum and stomach. The patient was a 44-year-old male fighter pilot who complained with bloody stool and altered bowel habits. He was diagnosed with hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer with a definite family history, and subsequently he underwent simultaneous low anterior resection and distal gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy. Postoperative pathologic assessment showed a poorly differentiated gastric adenocarcinoma with signet ring cell components (pT2N1M0; stage IIb) and a moderately differentiated rectal adenocarcinoma with myxoid components (pT3N0M0; stage IIa). Both tumors showed positive expression of p53, Ki-67, VEGF, carcinoembryonic antigen, MRP, TS, P-gp, and TopoII, and negative expression of c-erbB2, CD34, CD31, D2-40, S-100, FVIII, MLH1, MSH2, and MSH6 oncoproteins. Six cycles of XELOX chemotherapy and 50 Gy/25 f radiotherapy were delivered postoperatively. Now, he has returned to his work under medical observation for about 6 months. From this patient's diagnosis and treatment, we think that the gene screening should be used in pilot selection. According to the result of gene screening, we can give pertinence examinations to the target organ of genes. It is very necessary for pilots to keep keen vigilance at gastrointestinal tumors because they have to face many high-risk factors in working. As to pilots, the selection of operation should be individualized.

  12. Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhito Mori

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones generate severe hazards in the middle latitudes. A brief review and applications of dynamical and statistical downscaling of tropical cyclone (TC are described targeting extreme storm surge and storm wave hazard assessment. First, a review of the current understanding of the changes in the characteristics of TCs in the past and in the future is shown. Then, a review and ongoing research about impact assessment of tropical cyclones both dynamical downscaling and statistical model are described for Typhoon Vera in 1959 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Finally, several examples of impact assessment of storm surge and extreme wave changes are presented. Changes in both TC intensity and track are linked to future changes in extreme storm surge and wave climate in middle latitude.

  13. A system of systems assessment of the mitigation of surge and nuisance flooding under present and future conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Collini, R.; DeLorme, D.; Medeiros, S. C.; Morris, J. T.; Passeri, D. L.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2016-12-01

    Extensive transdisciplinary efforts since 2010 in the northern Gulf of Mexico (MS, AL, and the FL panhandle) have resulted in a capability to model the coastal dynamics of sea level rise and assess hydrodynamic and ecological impacts at the coastal land margin [1-7]. The establishment of this paradigm shift (i.e., beyond "bathtub" approaches) was made possible, in no small part, by directly involving coastal resource managers at the initial stages and throughout the project process. Potential deleterious effects of sea level rise (SLR) to barrier islands, shorelines, dunes, marshes, etc., are now better understood. The paradigm shift, input from coastal resource managers and future conditions provide a rationale to evaluate and quantify the ability of Natural and Nature-based Feature (NNBF) approaches to mitigate the present and future effects of surge and nuisance flooding. This presentation will describe how we are employing a system of systems approach to assess NNBFs under present and future conditions. Passeri, D.L. et al. "The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes: a review." Earth's Future, 3, 159-181, 2015. Morris, J.T. et al. "Contributions of organic and inorganic matter to sediment volume and accretion in tidal wetlands at steady state," Earth's Future, Vol. 4(4), pp. 110-121, 2016. Hovenga, P.A. et al. "The response of runoff and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River, Florida to climate and land use land cover change." Earth's Future, Vol. 4(5), pp. 124-142. 2016. Plant, N.G. et al. "Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network." Earth's Future, Vol. 4(5), pp. 143-158. 2016. Passeri, D.L. et al. "Tidal Hydrodynamics under Future Sea Level Rise and Coastal Morphology in the Northern Gulf of Mexico." Earth's Future, Vol. 4(5), pp. 159-176. 2016. Bilskie, M.V. et al. "Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge

  14. Assessment of Climate Projections Using Ensembles of CMIP5 GCMs and Developing a Probable Future Scenario for Evaluation of Possible Future Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Global climatic change is expected to have severe effects on natural systems along with various socio-economic aspects of human life. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are widely used to study the impacts in future, with varied projections/simulations from the entire participating member GCMs. This has urged scientific communities across the world try to improve the understandings of future climate conditions, and reduce the uncertainties associated with them. In the present study, we have used various multi-modelling methods, both deterministic and probabilistic, to reduce the model uncertainties, in historical time period of 1970-2000. The analysis is performed for uncertainty bounds of precipitation and temperature using 10 selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Climate Model Inter-comparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB). All the multi-modelling methods are applied and evaluated in accordance to their performance indicator using Taylor diagrams on simulating past climate for all 10 sub-basins. The best performing multi-model method, on basis of performance of all the climatic parameters, is chosen for a particular sub-basin and same is used to develop a probable future scenario for the period of 2010-2099. All the analysis and computations are performed on statistically downscaled GCM data to increase the accuracy and better capture the uncertainty bounds on sub-basin scale, as well as enhancing the ability of multi-modeling techniques. All the future time series are used to assess the uncertainties of climatic parameters for climate change analysis. Results have brought insight into each of the multi-modelling techniques i.e. highlighting the pros and cons of all the applied methods. It was also inferred that multi-modelling techniques varied from basin to basin and with different variables, as per their capabilities to capture the observation spread/uncertainty. Eventually, the different ensemble time series

  15. Assessing the future change of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration over Florida using ranked CMIP5 model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, S.; Chang, S. J.; Graham, W. D.

    2014-12-01

    The ultimate goal of this study is to assess future water vulnerability over Florida, based on the change in precipitation and evapotranspiration estimated using the most advanced Global Climate Model (GCM) ensemble. We evaluated the skills of CMIP5 (Climate Model Inter-comparison project, phase 5) climate models in reproducing retrospective climatology over the state of Florida for the key climate variables important from the hydrological and agricultural perspectives (i.e., precipitation (Precp), maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), and wind speed (Ws)). The biases of raw CMIP5 were estimated using two different grid-based observational datasets as references. Based on the accuracy of various predictors such as mean climatology, temporal variability, extreme frequency, etc., the GCMs were ranked for each of the different reference datasets, climate variables, and predictors. The variation of the ranks was examined and rank-based GCM weights were assigned. The weights were then used to develop future ensembles (for 4 different RCP gas-emission scenarios) for the annual cycle of monthly mean and variance of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Finally the differences between the retrospective and future ensembles were investigated to assess future climate change impacts on water vulnerability using simple indices (e.g., ETo/Precp., drought index, and Standardized Precp. index). The uncertainties of the assessment were quantified by the spread range of ensembles and a reliability factor for the GCMs estimated using a measure of model biases and convergence criterion.

  16. Assessing the Impact of Saltwater Intrusion in the Carolinas under Future Climatic and Sea Level Conditions

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The goal of this research is to support coastal decision-makers in North Carolina and South Carolina by providing information about potential future precipitation...

  17. Assessing risks from drought and heat stress in productive grasslands under present and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Mosimann, Eric; Meisser, Marco; Deléglise, Claire

    2014-05-01

    Grasslands cover the majority of the world's agricultural area, provide the feedstock for animal production, contribute to the economy of farms, and deliver a variety of ecological and societal services. Assessing responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change, in particular climate-related risks, is therefore an important step toward identifying adaptation options necessary to secure grassland functioning and productivity. Of particular concern are risks in relation to drought and extreme temperatures, on the one hand because grasslands are very sensitive to water stress, on the other hand also because global warming is expected to increase the occurrence and intensity of these events in many agricultural areas of the world. In this contribution we review findings of ongoing experimental and modelling activities that aim at examining the implications of climate extremes and climate change for grassland vegetation dynamics and herbage productivity. Data collected at the Jura foot in western Switzerland indicate that water scarcity and associated anomalous temperatures slowed plant development in relation to both the summer drought of 2003 as well as the spring drought of 2011, with decline in annual yields of up to 40%. Further effects of drought found from the analysis of recent field trials explicitly designed to study the effects of different water management regimes are changes in the functional composition and nutritive value of grasslands. Similar responses are disclosed by simulations with a process based grassland ecosystem model that was originally developed for the simulation of mixed grass/clover swards. Simulations driven with historical weather records from the Swiss Plateau suggest that drought and extreme temperature could represent one of the main reasons for the observed yield variability in productive systems. Simulations with climate change scenarios further reveal important changes in ecosystem dynamics for the current century. The results

  18. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Grolander, Sara (Facilia AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  19. A procedure for assessing future trends of subdaily precipitation values on point scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rianna, Guido; Villani, Veronica; Mercogliano, Paola; Vezzoli, Renata

    2015-04-01

    In many areas of Italy, urban flooding or floods in small mountain basins, induced by heavy precipitations on subdaily scale, represent remarkable hazards able to cause huge damages and casualties often increased by very high population density. A proper assessment about how frequency and magnitude of such events could change under the effect of Climate Changes (CC) is crucial for the development of future territorial planning (such as early warning systems). The current constraints of climate modeling, also using high resolution RCM, prevent an adequate representation of subdaily precipitation patterns (mainly concerning extreme values) while available observed datasets are often unsuitable for the application of the bias-correction (BC) techniques requiring long time series. In this work, a new procedure is proposed: at point scale, precipitation outputs on 24 and 48 hours are provided by high resolution (about 8km) climate simulation performed through the RCM COSMO_CLM driven by GCM CMCC_CM and bias-corrected by quantile mapping approach. These ones are adopted for a monthly stochastic disaggregation approach combining Random Parameter Bartlett-Lewis (RPBL) gamma model with appropriate rainfall disaggregation technique. The last one implements empirical correction procedures, called adjusting procedures, to modify the model rainfall output, so that it is consistent with the observed rainfall values on daily time scale. In order to take into account the great difficulties related to minimization of objective function required by retrieving the 7 RPBL parameters, for each dataset the computations are repeated twenty times. Moreover, adopting statistical properties on 24 and 48 hours to retrieve RPBL parameters allows, according Bo et al. (1994), to infer statistical properties until hourly scale maintaining the information content about the possible changes in precipitation patterns due to CC. The entire simulation chain is tested on Baiso weather station, in

  20. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  1. A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, William J.; Alves, Jose A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

    2012-01-01

    We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

  2. Climate for Culture : assessing the impact of climate change on the future indoor climate in historic buildings using simulations

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Background The present study reports results from the large-scale integrated EU project "Climate for Culture". The full name, or title, of the project is Climate for Culture: damage risk assessment, economic impact and mitigation strategies for sustainable preservation of cultural heritage in times of climate change. This paper focusses on implementing high resolution regional climate models together with new building simulation tools in order to predict future outdoor and indoor climate cond...

  3. Role of health education in promoting health in Libya: Evaluation of the existing situation and assessment of future needs

    OpenAIRE

    Elfituri, Abdulbaset Ali

    2000-01-01

    This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University. A variety of programmes of health education are designed, addressing promotion of health of the Libyan community. These programmes employ various communication methods and use different education media. This research is the first to evaluate the national programmes of health education in Libya and to determine future needs. It compares health officials' assessments with those of the gener...

  4. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for futures studies : a methodological assessment of concepts and methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jetter, J.J.; Kok, K.

    2014-01-01

    Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) modelling is highly suitable for the demands of future studies: it uses a mix of qualitative and quantitative approaches, it enables the inclusion of multiple and diverse sources to overcome the limitations of expert opinions, it considers multivariate interactions that lea

  5. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsd

  6. LTE delay assessment for real-time management of future smart grids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jorguseski, L.; Zhang, H.; Chrysalos, M.; Golinski, M.; Toh, Y.

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the feasibility of using Long Term Evolution (LTE), for the real-time state estimation of the smart grids. This enables monitoring and control of future smart grids. The smart grid state estimation requires measurement reports from different nodes in the smart grid and

  7. Water Scarcity in the Zambezi Basin in the Long-Term Future: A Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to explore possible futures for the Zambezi basin and to estimate the risks of different water management strategies. Existing uncertainties are translated into alternative assumptions. The risk of a certain management strategy, which has been developed under a given set of

  8. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for futures studies : a methodological assessment of concepts and methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jetter, J.J.; Kok, K.

    2014-01-01

    Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) modelling is highly suitable for the demands of future studies: it uses a mix of qualitative and quantitative approaches, it enables the inclusion of multiple and diverse sources to overcome the limitations of expert opinions, it considers multivariate interactions that

  9. Projecting the Future for Situation Assessment and Planning: A Cognitive Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-11-01

    them from similar experiences are complex psychological processes. Human retrieval mechanisms are heuristic in nature. They do not automatically...Ryback, 1967; Seashore, Underwood, Houston, & Berks, 1956; Thorndike , 1931; Waters, 1933). Experience with feedback as expertise. Even if we define...repertoire of procedurally-specified future projection strategies. Second, we would educate the analysts regarding general cognitive factors, such as

  10. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-11-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

  11. City Blueprints: Baseline Assessments of Sustainable Water Management in 11 Cities of the Future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, C.J.

    2013-01-01

    The necessity of Urban Water Cycle Services (UWCS) adapting to future stresses calls for changes that take sustainability into account. Megatrends (e.g. population growth, water scarcity, pollution and climate change) pose urgent water challenges in cities. In a previous paper, a set of indicators,

  12. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

  13. User requirements and future expectations for geosensor networks – an assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooistra, L.; Thessler, S.; Bregt, A.K.

    2009-01-01

    Considerable progress has been made on the technical development of sensor networks. However increasing attention is now also required for the broad diversity of end-user requirements for the deployment of sensor networks. An expert survey on the user requirements and future expectations for sensor

  14. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  15. The Subjective Health Horizon Questionnaire (SHH-Q): Assessing Future Time Perspectives for Facets of an Active Lifestyle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Düzel, Sandra; Voelkle, Manuel C; Düzel, Emrah; Gerstorf, Denis; Drewelies, Johanna; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Demuth, Ilja; Lindenberger, Ulman

    2016-01-01

    A wider subjective time horizon is assumed to be positively associated with longevity and vitality. In particular, a lifestyle with exposure to novel and varied information is considered beneficial for healthy cognitive aging. At present, measures that specifically assess individuals' perceived temporal extension to engage in active lifestyles in the future are not available. We introduce and validate a new self-report measure, the Subjective Health Horizon Questionnaire (SHH-Q). The SHH-Q assesses individuals' future time perspectives in relation to four interrelated but distinct lifestyle dimensions: (1) novelty-oriented exploration (Novelty), (2) bodily fitness (Body), (3) work goals (Work), and (4) goals in life (Life Goals). The present study aims at: (a) validating the hypothesized factor structure of the SHH-Q, according to which the SHH-Q consists of four interrelated but distinct subscales, and (b) testing the hypothesis that the Novelty and Body subscales of the SHH-Q show positive and selective associations with markers of cognition and somatic health, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we analyzed data from 1,371 healthy individuals (51% women) with a mean age of 70.1 years (SD = 3.6) who participated in the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II) and completed the SHH-Q. As predicted, the SHH-Q formed four correlated but distinct subscales: (1) Novelty, (2) Body, (3) Work, and (4) Life Goals. Greater self-reported future novelty orientation was associated with higher current memory performance, and greater future expectations regarding bodily fitness with better current metabolic status. The SHH-Q reliably assesses individual differences in four distinct dimensions of future time perspective. Two of these dimensions, Novelty and Body, show differential associations with cognitive status and somatic health. The SHH-Q may serve as a tool to assess how different facets of future time perspective relate to somatic health, cognition, motivation, and

  16. Framework for e-learning assessment in dental education: a global model for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arevalo, Carolina R; Bayne, Stephen C; Beeley, Josie A; Brayshaw, Christine J; Cox, Margaret J; Donaldson, Nora H; Elson, Bruce S; Grayden, Sharon K; Hatzipanagos, Stylianos; Johnson, Lynn A; Reynolds, Patricia A; Schönwetter, Dieter J

    2013-05-01

    The framework presented in this article demonstrates strategies for a global approach to e-curricula in dental education by considering a collection of outcome assessment tools. By combining the outcomes for overall assessment, a global model for a pilot project that applies e-assessment tools to virtual learning environments (VLE), including haptics, is presented. Assessment strategies from two projects, HapTEL (Haptics in Technology Enhanced Learning) and UDENTE (Universal Dental E-learning), act as case-user studies that have helped develop the proposed global framework. They incorporate additional assessment tools and include evaluations from questionnaires and stakeholders' focus groups. These measure each of the factors affecting the classical teaching/learning theory framework as defined by Entwistle in a standardized manner. A mathematical combinatorial approach is proposed to join these results together as a global assessment. With the use of haptic-based simulation learning, exercises for tooth preparation assessing enamel and dentine were compared to plastic teeth in manikins. Equivalence for student performance for haptic versus traditional preparation methods was established, thus establishing the validity of the haptic solution for performing these exercises. Further data collected from HapTEL are still being analyzed, and pilots are being conducted to validate the proposed test measures. Initial results have been encouraging, but clearly the need persists to develop additional e-assessment methods for new learning domains.

  17. Data Center IT Equipment Energy Assessment Tools: Current State of Commercial Tools, Proposal for a Future Set of Assessment Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radhakrishnan, Ben D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); National Univ., San Diego, CA (United States). School of Engineering

    2012-06-30

    This research project, which was conducted during the Summer and Fall of 2011, investigated some commercially available assessment tools with a focus on IT equipment to see if such tools could round out the DC Pro tool suite. In this research, the assessment capabilities of the various tools were compiled to help make “non-biased” information available to the public. This research should not be considered to be exhaustive on all existing vendor tools although a number of vendors were contacted. Large IT equipment OEM’s like IBM and Dell provide their proprietary internal automated software which does not work on any other IT equipment. However, found two companies with products that showed promise in performing automated assessments for IT equipment from different OEM vendors. This report documents the research and provides a list of software products reviewed, contacts and websites, product details, discussions with specific companies, a set of recommendations, and next steps. As a result of this research, a simple 3-level approach to an IT assessment tool is proposed along with an example of an assessment using a simple IT equipment data collection tool (Level 1, spreadsheet). The tool has been reviewed with the Green Grid and LBNL staff. The initial feedback has been positive although further refinement to the tool will be necessary. Proposed next steps include a field trial of at least two vendors’ software in two different data centers with an objective to prove the concept, ascertain the extent of energy and computational assessment, ease of installation and opportunities for continuous improvement. Based on the discussions, field trials (or case studies) are proposed with two vendors – JouleX (expected to be completed in 2012) and Sentilla.

  18. Considering "Nonlinearity" Across the Continuum in Medical Education Assessment: Supporting Theory, Practice, and Future Research Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durning, Steven J; Lubarsky, Stuart; Torre, Dario; Dory, Valérie; Holmboe, Eric

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to propose new approaches to assessment that are grounded in educational theory and the concept of "nonlinearity." The new approaches take into account related phenomena such as "uncertainty," "ambiguity," and "chaos." To illustrate these approaches, we will use the example of assessment of clinical reasoning, although the principles we outline may apply equally well to assessment of other constructs in medical education. Theoretical perspectives include a discussion of script theory, assimilation theory, self-regulated learning theory, and situated cognition. Assessment examples to include script concordance testing, concept maps, self-regulated learning microanalytic technique, and work-based assessment, which parallel the above-stated theories, respectively, are also highlighted. We conclude with some practical suggestions for approaching nonlinearity.

  19. Analysis and Assessment of Impacts on Biodiversity: Investigating Alternative Futures for the California Mojave Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-07-01

    development. That probability surface is the mechanism for creating alternative futures. In brief, the research team needed to “populate” the California...McKenzie, N. L., L. Belbin , C. R. Margules and G. J. Keighery. 1989. Selecting representative reserve systems in remote areas: A case study in the...Process consultation: its role in organization development. Addison- Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, Massachusetts, USA. Scott, J. M., B. Csuti

  20. Complex land systems: the need for long time perspectives to assess their future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dearing,, John A.; Braimoh, Ademola K.; Reenberg, Anette

    2010-01-01

    The growing awareness about the need to anticipate the future of land systems focuses on how well we understand the interactions between society and environmental processes within a complexity framework. A major barrier to understanding is insufficient attention given to long (multidecadal) tempo...... and environmental history are now the subject of major international effort. The embedding of empirical information over multidecadal timescales in attempts to define and model sustainable and adaptive management of land systems is now not only possible, but also necessary....

  1. Assessment of Probable Future Land Use and Habitat Conditions in Water Resources Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-12-01

    Carlisle and Park (1976); wastewater treatment facility c. Fabos, Green, and Joyner (1978); responsible regional landscape planning . d. Miller, Tom, and...relationships of alternative land uses on various landscape, ecological, and public service resources of prime concern in landscape planning . METLAND...uses is within the context of landscape planning . The description of future uses then is essentially that of the most suitable and desirable usage

  2. Forest fire risk assessment in Sweden using climate model data: bias correction and future changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As the risk for a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40 and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5 for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3. The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

  3. [Future built-up area zoning by applying the methodology for assessing the population health risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobkova, T E

    2009-01-01

    Using the methodology for assessing the population health risk provides proposals on the functional zoning of the reorganized area of a plastics-works. An area has been allocated for possible house-building.

  4. Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

    2010-01-01

    The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

  5. Evolving PBPK applications in regulatory risk assessment: current situation and future goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    The presentation includes current applications of PBPK modeling in regulatory risk assessment and discussions on conflicts between assuring consistency with experimental data in current situation and the desire for animal-free model development.

  6. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  7. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  8. Present-day and future mediterranean precipitation extremes assessed by different statistical approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxian, A.; Hertig, E.; Seubert, S.; Vogt, G.; Jacobeit, J.; Paeth, H.

    2015-02-01

    The Mediterranean area is strongly vulnerable to future changes in temperature and precipitation, particularly concerning extreme events, and has been identified as a climate change hot spot. This study performs a comprehensive investigation of present-day and future Mediterranean precipitation extremes based on station data, gridded observations and simulations of the regional climate model (REMO) driven by the coupled global general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Extreme value estimates from different statistical methods—quantile-based indices, generalized pareto distribution (GPD) based return values and data from a weather generator—are compared and evaluated. Dynamical downscaling reveals improved small-scale topographic structures and more realistic higher rainfall totals and extremes over mountain ranges and in summer. REMO tends to overestimate gridded observational data in winter but is closer to local station information. The dynamical-statistical weather generator provides virtual station rainfall from gridded REMO data that overcomes typical discrepancies between area-averaged model rainfall and local station information, e.g. overestimated numbers of rainy days and underestimated extreme intensities. Concerning future rainfall amount, strong summer and winter drying over the northern and southern Mediterranean, respectively, is confronted with winter wetting over the northern part. In contrast, precipitation extremes tend to increase in even more Mediterranean areas, implying regions with decreasing totals but intensifying extremes, e.g. southern Europe and Turkey in winter and the Balkans in summer. The GPD based return values reveal slightly larger regions of increasing rainfall extremes than quantile-based indices, and the virtual stations from the weather generator show even stronger increases.

  9. Assessment of Folsom Lake Watershed response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Theresa M.; Georgakakos, Konstantine P.

    2000-01-01

    An integrated forecast-control system was designed to allow the profitable use of ensemble forecasts for the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs. The system ingests large-scale climate model monthly precipitation through the adjustment of the marginal distribution of reservoir-catchment precipitation to reflect occurrence of monthly climate precipitation amounts in the extreme terciles of their distribution. Generation of ensemble reservoir inflow forecasts is then accomplished with due account for atmospheric- forcing and hydrologic- model uncertainties. These ensemble forecasts are ingested by the decision component of the integrated system, which generates non- inferior trade-off surfaces and, given management preferences, estimates of reservoir- management benefits over given periods. In collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation and the California Nevada River Forecast Center, the integrated system is applied to Folsom Lake in California to evaluate the benefits for flood control, hydroelectric energy production, and low flow augmentation. In addition to retrospective studies involving the historical period 1964-1993, system simulations were performed for the future period 2001-2030, under a control (constant future greenhouse-gas concentrations assumed at the present levels) and a greenhouse-gas- increase (1-% per annum increase assumed) scenario. The present paper presents and validates ensemble 30-day reservoir- inflow forecasts under a variety of situations. Corresponding reservoir management results are presented in Yao and Georgakakos, A., this issue. Principle conclusions of this paper are that the integrated system provides reliable ensemble inflow volume forecasts at the 5-% confidence level for the majority of the deciles of forecast frequency, and that the use of climate model simulations is beneficial mainly during high flow periods. It is also found that, for future periods with potential sharp climatic increases of precipitation

  10. Past, Present, and Future Nutrient Quality of a Small Southeastern River: A Pre-Dam Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul M. Stewart

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Riverine dams alter both the physical environment and water chemistry, thus affecting species assemblages within these environments. In the United States, dam construction is on the decline and there is a growing trend for dam removal. The Choctawhatchee, Pea, and Yellow Rivers Watershed Management Authority had initiated the permitting process for placing a reservoir dam on the Little Choctawhatchee River (LCR, a tributary to the Choctawhatchee River. The purpose of the proposed reservoir was water supply, and while the permit application has been suspended, history shows that this or related projects are likely to arise in the future. This study collected data on nutrient quality seasonally (four times from 12 sites in the LCR watershed from October 2007 to June 2008 in order to determine pre-dam conditions and to compare these data to historical and regional information. Historical and current nutrient concentrations were elevated throughout the watershed, in most cases above suggested criteria, and indicated that water quality of the river was and continues to be nutrient rich. A future reservoir at recent levels of water quality will likely be highly eutrophic, and anthropogenic influences will further stress this ecosystem and its water quality as the urban region expands.

  11. Non-invasive bedside assessment of central venous pressure: scanning into the future.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Rizkallah

    Full Text Available Noninvasive evaluation of central venous pressure (CVP can be achieved by assessing the Jugular Venous Pressure (JVP, Peripheral Venous Collapse (PVC, and ultrasound visualization of the inferior vena cava. The relative accuracy of these techniques compared to one another and their application by trainees of varying experience remains uncertain. We compare the application and utility of the JVP, PVC, and handheld Mini Echo amongst trainees of varying experience including a medical student, internal medicine resident, and cardiology fellow. We also introduce and validate a new physical exam technique to assess central venous pressures, the Anthem sign.Patients presenting for their regularly scheduled echocardiograms at the hospital echo department had clinical evaluations of their CVP using these non-invasive bedside techniques. The examiners were blinded to the echo results, each other's assessments, and patient history; their CVP estimates were compared to the gold standard level 3 echo-cardiographer's estimates at the completion of the study.325 patients combined were examined (mean age 65, s.d. 16 years. When compared to the gold standard of central venous pressure by a level 3 echocardiographer, the JVP was the most sensitive at 86%, improving with clinical experience (p<0.01. The classic PVC technique and Anthem sign had better specificity compared to the JVP. Mini Echo estimates were comparable to physical exam assessments.JVP evaluation is the most sensitive physical examination technique in CVP assessments. The PVC techniques along with the newly described Anthem sign may be of value for the early learner who still has not mastered the art of JVP assessment and in obese patients in whom JVP evaluation is problematic. Mini Echo estimates of CVPs are comparable to physical examination by trained clinicians and require less instruction. The use of Mini Echo in medical training should be further evaluated and encouraged.

  12. ASSESSING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AT THE PLUTONIUM FINISHING PLANT (PFP) FOR PLANNING FUTURE D&D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HOPKINS, A.M.; KLOS, D.B.; MINETT, M.J.

    2007-01-25

    This paper documents the fiscal year (FY) 2006 assessment to evaluate potential chemical and radiological hazards associated with vessels and piping in the former plutonium process areas at Hanford's Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). Evaluations by PFP engineers as design authorities for specific systems and other subject-matter experts were conducted to identify the chemical hazards associated with transitioning the process areas for the long-term layup of PFP before its eventual final decontamination and decommissioning (D and D). D and D activities in the main process facilities were suspended in September 2005 for a period of between 5 and 10 years. A previous assessment conducted in FY 2003 found that certain activities to mitigate chemical hazards could be deferred safely until the D and D of PFP, which had been scheduled to result in a slab-on-grade condition by 2009. As a result of necessary planning changes, however, D and D activities at PFP will be delayed until after the 2009 time frame. Given the extended project and plant life, it was determined that a review of the plant chemical hazards should be conducted. This review to determine the extended life impact of chemicals is called the ''Plutonium Finishing Plant Chemical Hazards Assessment, FY 2006''. This FY 2006 assessment addresses potential chemical and radiological hazard areas identified by facility personnel and subject-matter experts who reevaluated all the chemical systems (items) from the FY 2003 assessment. This paper provides the results of the FY 2006 chemical hazards assessment and describes the methodology used to assign a hazard ranking to the items reviewed.

  13. Occupational health impacts of climate change: current and future ISO standards for the assessment of heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Ken

    2013-01-01

    The current system of International Standards (ISO) is assessed to consider whether standards are fit for purpose for the future in the context of climate change. ISO 7243, ISO 7933 and ISO 9886 provide the current ISO system for the assessment of heat stress. These involve a simple monitoring index, an analytical approach and physiological monitoring, respectively. The system relies on accurate measurement of the thermal conditions experienced by the worker (ISO 7726); and estimations of metabolic heat production due to work (ISO 8996) and the thermal properties of clothing (ISO 9920). As well as standards for heat stress assessment, the full range of ISO standards and the physical environment is listed as well as current work and proposed standards. A particular 'gap' in anticipating requirements for ISO standards in the future is the link between meteorological data and ISO standards. This is important for predicting the global consequences of a changing climate and anticipating potential impacts on occupational health across countries and cultures.

  14. Assessing Sediment Yield for Selected Watersheds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin Under Future Agricultural Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), corn acreage has been expanding since 2005 in response to high demand for corn as an ethanol feedstock. This study integrated remote sensing-derived products and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) withing a GIS modeling environme...

  15. T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment: principles, current applications, and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesper, Tobias; Hosalkar, Harish S; Bittersohl, Daniela; Welsch, Götz H; Krauspe, Rüdiger; Zilkens, Christoph; Bittersohl, Bernd

    2014-10-01

    With advances in joint preservation surgery that are intended to alter the course of osteoarthritis by early intervention, accurate and reliable assessment of the cartilage status is critical. Biochemically sensitive MRI techniques can add robust biomarkers for disease onset and progression, and therefore, could be meaningful assessment tools for the diagnosis and follow-up of cartilage abnormalities. T2* mapping could be a good alternative because it would combine the benefits of biochemical cartilage evaluation with remarkable features including short imaging time and the ability of high-resolution three-dimensional cartilage evaluation-without the need for contrast media administration or special hardware. Several in vitro and in vivo studies, which have elaborated on the potential of cartilage T2* assessment in various cartilage disease patterns and grades of degeneration, have been reported. However, much remains to be understood and certain unresolved questions have become apparent with these studies that are crucial to the further application of this technique. This review summarizes the principles of the technique and current applications of T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment. Limitations of recent studies are discussed and the potential implications for patient care are presented.

  16. Wave of the Future?: Integrating IR, Outcomes Assessment, Planning, Program Review, and Accreditation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leimer, Christina

    2010-01-01

    Integrating institutional research, outcomes assessment, program review, strategic planning, and accreditation can be a powerful means of creating a culture of evidence-based decision making and continuous improvement. This study examined how this "integrated" model is organized in practice, how such offices began, why this approach was chosen,…

  17. Performance assessment for continuing and future operations at solid waste storage area 6. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-09-01

    This appendix provides the radionuclide inventory data used for the Solid Waste Storage Area (SWSA) 6 Performance Assessment (PA). The uncertainties in the radionuclide inventory data are also provided, along with the descriptions of the methods used to estimate the uncertainties.

  18. Assessement of rheumatic diseases with computational radiology: current status and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peloschek, Philipp; Boesen, Mikael; Donner, Rene;

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, several computational image analysis methods to assess disease progression in rheumatic diseases were presented. This review article explains the basics of these methods as well as their potential application in rheumatic disease monitoring, it covers radiography, sonography...... as well as magnetic resonance imaging in quantitative analysis frameworks....

  19. T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment: principles, current applications, and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hesper, Tobias; Bittersohl, Daniela; Krauspe, Ruediger; Zilkens, Christoph [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Hosalkar, Harish S. [Center of Hip Preservation and Children' s Orthopaedics, San Diego, CA (United States); Welsch, Goetz H. [Medical University of Vienna, MR Center, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Bittersohl, Bernd [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Heinrich-Heine University, Medical School, Department of Orthopaedics, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    2014-10-15

    With advances in joint preservation surgery that are intended to alter the course of osteoarthritis by early intervention, accurate and reliable assessment of the cartilage status is critical. Biochemically sensitive MRI techniques can add robust biomarkers for disease onset and progression, and therefore, could be meaningful assessment tools for the diagnosis and follow-up of cartilage abnormalities. T2* mapping could be a good alternative because it would combine the benefits of biochemical cartilage evaluation with remarkable features including short imaging time and the ability of high-resolution three-dimensional cartilage evaluation - without the need for contrast media administration or special hardware. Several in vitro and in vivo studies, which have elaborated on the potential of cartilage T2* assessment in various cartilage disease patterns and grades of degeneration, have been reported. However, much remains to be understood and certain unresolved questions have become apparent with these studies that are crucial to the further application of this technique. This review summarizes the principles of the technique and current applications of T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment. Limitations of recent studies are discussed and the potential implications for patient care are presented. (orig.)

  20. Regulatory Forum commentary: alternative mouse models for future cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Daniel; Sistare, Frank D; Nambiar, Prashant R; Turner, Oliver C; Radi, Zaher; Bower, Nancy

    2014-07-01

    International regulatory and pharmaceutical industry scientists are discussing revision of the International Conference on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) S1 guidance on rodent carcinogenicity assessment of small molecule pharmaceuticals. A weight-of-evidence approach is proposed to determine the need for rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with high human cancer risk, the product may be labeled appropriately without conducting rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with minimal cancer risk, only a 6-month transgenic mouse study (rasH2 mouse or p53+/- mouse) or a 2-year mouse study would be needed. If rodent carcinogenicity testing may add significant value to cancer risk assessment, a 2-year rat study and either a 6-month transgenic mouse or a 2-year mouse study is appropriate. In many cases, therefore, one rodent carcinogenicity study could be sufficient. The rasH2 model predicts neoplastic findings relevant to human cancer risk assessment as well as 2-year rodent models, produces fewer irrelevant neoplastic outcomes, and often will be preferable to a 2-year rodent study. Before revising ICH S1 guidance, a prospective evaluation will be conducted to test the proposed weight-of-evidence approach. This evaluation offers an opportunity for a secondary analysis comparing the value of alternative mouse models and 2-year rodent studies in the proposed ICH S1 weight-of-evidence approach for human cancer risk assessment.

  1. Decomposing passenger transport futures : Comparing results of global integrated assessment models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelenbosch, O. Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412493373; McCollum, D. L.; van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Bertram, C.; Carrara, S.; Daly, H.; Fujimori, S.; Kitous, A.; Kyle, P.; Ó Broin, E.; Karkatsoulis, P.; Sano, F.

    The transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs

  2. Perceptions of Spanish/English Bilingual School Psychologists Regarding Competency in Assessment and Future Training Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pena, Anne Marie

    2012-01-01

    With the changing demographics of the school population, the need for bilingually competent school psychologists has become increasingly important. The current study examined the influence of training and regional factors on Spanish-speaking, bilingual school psychologists' self-perceptions of competence regarding assessment of non-native…

  3. Assessment of traffic impact on future cooperative driving systems: challenges and considerations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, F.; Pueboobpaphan, R.; van Arem, Bart; A. Vinel, B. Sokolov, V. Vishnevsky,; S. Balandin, G. Yanovsky, Y. Koucheryavy,

    2009-01-01

    Connect & Drive is a start-up project to develop a cooperative driving system and improve the traffic performance on Dutch highways. It consists of two interactive subsystems: cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) and connected cruise control (CCC). To assess the traffic performance, a traffic

  4. Exploring the Notion of Quality in Quality Higher Education Assessment in a Collaborative Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, Kate; Gibbs, Paul

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to contribute to the debate on the notion of quality in higher education with particular focus on "objectifying through articulation" the assessment of quality by professional experts. The article gives an overview of the differentiations of quality as used in higher education. It explores a substantial…

  5. Children with intellectual disabilities and pain perception: a review and suggestions for future assessment protocols

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, M.; Valkenburg, A.; Boerlage, A.A.; Tibboel, D.; Veerkamp, J.S.

    2009-01-01

    AIM: This was to review what is known about pain assessment in children with intellectual disabilities and to translate findings into clinical dental practice. Methods: Literature review. Review: The association between anxiety and pain as reported in the literature was explored. The specific pain e

  6. Exploring the Notion of Quality in Quality Higher Education Assessment in a Collaborative Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, Kate; Gibbs, Paul

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to contribute to the debate on the notion of quality in higher education with particular focus on "objectifying through articulation" the assessment of quality by professional experts. The article gives an overview of the differentiations of quality as used in higher education. It explores a substantial piece of…

  7. Life cycle assessment of three water systems in Copenhagen-a management tool of the future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godskesen, Berit; Zambrano, K C; Trautner, A.

    2011-01-01

    Environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA) was applied to evaluate three different water systems of the water sector in Copenhagen, Denmark, including technologies within water supply, facilities recycling water and treatment of sewer overflow. In these three water systems LCA was used to evaluate...

  8. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance

  9. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giese, R.F.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1992-08-25

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report's purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections.

  10. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giese, R.F.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1992-08-25

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report`s purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science & Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections.

  11. Assessing the Global and Arctic Transport of Polychlorinated Biphenyls Under Present and Future Climate and Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, C. L.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We simulate the present and potential future atmospheric transport and fate of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), using the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. PCBs are toxic, persistent, and bioaccumulative chemicals whose production and use have been banned internationally. PCBs continue to cycle through the global atmosphere, however, because of their persistence, passive emissions from remaining stocks, and release from natural storage reservoirs such as oceans or soils. In particular, PCBs have been shown to transport long distances in the atmosphere to locations remote from emissions, such as the Arctic, where they can accumulate in wildlife and humans, putting health at risk. Previous studies have suggested that PCBs may be remobilized in a changing climate because higher temperatures will cause greater re-emissions from surface reservoirs. Here, we modify GEOS-Chem to simulate atmospheric PCB transport and investigate the relative effects of predicted climate changes and projected declines in primary emissions, especially on transport to the Arctic. We quantify changes in atmospheric concentrations of two PCBs (CB28 and CB 153) under 2050 climate ("FC"); 2050 emissions ("FE"); and 2050 climate and emissions combined ("FCFE"); relative to a 2000 climate, 2000 emissions control scenario, and determine the major processes affecting these changes. In the version of the model presented here, only soil-atmosphere surface interactions are considered, though future versions will include interaction with other surface media. Our results suggest projected 2050 emissions will play a stronger role than 2050 climate in controlling PCB concentrations of different volatilities. Temperature increases under FC cause increases in emissions of only 4% at most, resulting in negligible concentration changes relative to the FE scenario, in which primary emissions are projected to decline to temperature changes under FC.

  12. Assessing air quality and climate impacts of future ground freight choice in United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L.; Bond, T. C.; Smith, S.; Lee, B.; Ouyang, Y.; Hwang, T.; Barkan, C.; Lee, S.; Daenzer, K.

    2013-12-01

    The demand for freight transportation has continued to increase due to the growth of domestic and international trade. Emissions from ground freight (truck and railways) account for around 7% of the greenhouse gas emissions, 4% of the primary particulate matter emission and 25% of the NOx emissions in the U.S. Freight railways are generally more fuel efficient than trucks and cause less congestion. Freight demand and emissions are affected by many factors, including economic activity, the spatial distribution of demand, freight modal choice and routing decision, and the technology used in each modal type. This work links these four critical aspects of freight emission system to project the spatial distribution of emissions and pollutant concentration from ground freight transport in the U.S. between 2010 and 2050. Macroeconomic scenarios are used to forecast economic activities. Future spatial structure of employment and commodity demand in major metropolitan areas are estimated using spatial models and a shift-share model, respectively. Freight flow concentration and congestion patterns in inter-regional transportation networks are predicted from a four-step freight demand forecasting model. An asymptotic vehicle routing model is also developed to estimate delivery ton-miles for intra-regional freight shipment in metropolitan areas. Projected freight activities are then converted into impacts on air quality and climate. CO2 emissions are determined using a simple model of freight activity and fuel efficiency, and compared with the projected CO2 emissions from the Second Generation Model. Emissions of air pollutants including PM, NOx and CO are calculated with a vehicle fleet model SPEW-Trend, which incorporates the dynamic change of technologies. Emissions are projected under three economic scenarios to represent different plausible futures. Pollutant concentrations are then estimated using tagged chemical tracers in an atmospheric model with the emissions serving

  13. Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho Geothermal Resource Assessment and Future Recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph C. Armstrong; Robert P. Breckenridge; Dennis L. Nielson; John W. Shervais; Thomas R. Wood

    2013-03-01

    The U.S. Air Force is facing a number of challenges as it moves into the future, one of the biggest being how to provide safe and secure energy to support base operations. A team of scientists and engineers met at Mountain Home Air Force Base in early 2011 near Boise, Idaho, to discuss the possibility of exploring for geothermal resources under the base. The team identified that there was a reasonable potential for geothermal resources based on data from an existing well. In addition, a regional gravity map helped identify several possible locations for drilling a new well. The team identified several possible sources of funding for this well—the most logical being to use U.S. Department of Energy funds to drill the upper half of the well and U.S. Air Force funds to drill the bottom half of the well. The well was designed as a slimhole well in accordance with State of Idaho Department of Water Resources rules and regulations. Drilling operations commenced at the Mountain Home site in July of 2011 and were completed in January of 2012. Temperatures increased gradually, especially below a depth of 2000 ft. Temperatures increased more rapidly below a depth of 5500 ft. The bottom of the well is at 5976 ft, where a temperature of about 140°C was recorded. The well flowed artesian from a depth below 5600 ft, until it was plugged off with drilling mud. Core samples were collected from the well and are being analyzed to help understand permeability at depth. Additional tests using a televiewer system will be run to evaluate orientation and directions at fractures, especially in the production zone. A final report on the well exploitation will be forthcoming later this year. The Air Force will use it to evaluate the geothermal resource potential for future private development options at Mountain Home Air Force Base. In conclusion, Recommendation for follow-up efforts include the following:

  14. Fan Performance Testing and Oxygen Compatibility Assessment Results for Future Space Suit Life Support Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Heather L.; Jennings, Mallory A.; Vogel, Matthew

    2009-01-01

    An advanced portable life support system (PLSS) for the space suit will require a small, robust, and energyefficient system to transport the ventilation gas through the space suit for lunar Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations. A trade study identified and compared ventilation transport technologies in commercial, military, and space applications to determine which technologies could be adapted for EVA use. Based on the trade study results, five commercially available, 24-volt fans were selected for performance testing at various pressures and flow rates. Measured fan parameters included fan delta-pressures, input voltages, input electrical currents, and in some cases motor windings electrical voltages and currents. In addition, a follow-on trade study was performed to identify oxygen compatibility issues and assess their impact on fan design. This paper outlines the results of the fan performance characterization testing, as well as the results from the oxygen compatibility assessment.

  15. Algorithmic Assessment of Vaccine-Induced Selective Pressure and Its Implications on Future Vaccine Candidates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mones S. Abu-Asab

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Posttrial assessment of a vaccine's selective pressure on infecting strains may be realized through a bioinformatic tool such as parsimony phylogenetic analysis. Following a failed gonococcal pilus vaccine trial of Neisseria gonorrhoeae, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of pilin DNA and predicted peptide sequences from clinical isolates to assess the extent of the vaccine's effect on the type of field strains that the volunteers contracted. Amplified pilin DNA sequences from infected vaccinees, placebo recipients, and vaccine specimens were phylogenetically analyzed. Cladograms show that the vaccine peptides have diverged substantially from their paternal isolate by clustering distantly from each other. Pilin genes of the field clinical isolates were heterogeneous, and their peptides produced clades comprised of vaccinated and placebo recipients' strains indicating that the pilus vaccine did not exert any significant selective pressure on gonorrhea field strains. Furthermore, sequences of the semivariable and hypervariable regions pointed out heterotachous rates of mutation and substitution.

  16. Performance assessment for continuing and future operations at Solid Waste Storage Area 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-02-01

    This radiological performance assessment for the continued disposal operations at Solid Waste Storage Area 6 (SWSA 6) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) has been prepared to demonstrate compliance with the requirements of the US DOE. The analysis of SWSA 6 required the use of assumptions to supplement the available site data when the available data were incomplete for the purpose of analysis. Results indicate that SWSA 6 does not presently meet the performance objectives of DOE Order 5820.2A. Changes in operations and continued work on the performance assessment are expected to demonstrate compliance with the performance objectives for continuing operations at the Interim Waste Management Facility (IWMF). All other disposal operations in SWSA 6 are to be discontinued as of January 1, 1994. The disposal units at which disposal operations are discontinued will be subject to CERCLA remediation, which will result in acceptable protection of the public health and safety.

  17. A Critical Assessment of the Resource Depletion Potential of Current and Future Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens F. Peters

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Resource depletion aspects are repeatedly used as an argument for a shift towards new battery technologies. However, whether serious shortages due to the increased demand for traction and stationary batteries can actually be expected is subject to an ongoing discussion. In order to identify the principal drivers of resource depletion for battery production, we assess different lithium-ion battery types and a new lithium-free battery technology (sodium-ion under this aspect, applying different assessment methodologies. The findings show that very different results are obtained with existing impact assessment methodologies, which hinders clear interpretation. While cobalt, nickel and copper can generally be considered as critical metals, the magnitude of their depletion impacts in comparison with that of other battery materials like lithium, aluminum or manganese differs substantially. A high importance is also found for indirect resource depletion effects caused by the co-extraction of metals from mixed ores. Remarkably, the resource depletion potential per kg of produced battery is driven only partially by the electrode materials and thus depends comparably little on the battery chemistry itself. One of the key drivers for resource depletion seems to be the metals (and co-products in electronic parts required for the battery management system, a component rather independent from the actual battery chemistry. However, when assessing the batteries on a capacity basis (per kWh storage capacity, a high-energy density also turns out to be relevant, since it reduces the mass of battery required for providing one kWh, and thus the associated resource depletion impacts.

  18. Assessment of agricultural land fund in the Czech Republic, importance and future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Voltr

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of land depends on the production function of soil and additional connections given by environmental requirements, by the evaluation of public goods or by the requirements for formation a fair tax policy and even by the interests of landowners. Analysis of coherences during the soil appraisal shows a relatively strong dependence on the development of year-by-year yields and cost including subsidy policy, which is strongly reflected in the grasslands. Development of subsidies does not basically influence a longterm return and costs ratio for the production on arable land. The requirements for formation of prices are given due to the need for stability of the mutual relations between the quality of soil and climatic conditions, which manifests itself mainly in land consolidation or the categorization, useful for example for the determination of LFA. The comprehensive solution provides a system of land evaluation by cost-revenue relationships, which includes evaluation of environmental context on the base of the assessment of physical characteristics of soil and economic contexts in BPEJ categorization. The development of value system relations according to the proposed annual gross rental effects (HRRE shows a relatively stable assessment of land fund for arable land. The adjusted system of land value permits preferably to express a pointed value of land, which corresponds to the trend of a points system of VÚMOP. The actual current rating BPEJ is proposed to make in dependence on the level of market prices to a one point. Due to the different trends in the market prices of arable land and grassland is proposed to introduce a separate assessment of arable land and grassland.

  19. Performance assessment for continuing and future operations at solid waste storage area 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-09-01

    This revised performance assessment (PA) for the continued disposal operations at Solid Waste Storage Area (SWSA) 6 on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) has been prepared to demonstrate compliance with the performance objectives for low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal contained in the US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5820.2A. This revised PA considers disposal operations conducted from September 26, 1988, through the projects lifetime of the disposal facility.

  20. Texas National Coastal Assessment (2000-2004): challenges, solutions, lessons learned and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, James D; Smith, Charles R

    2009-03-01

    The Texas National Coastal Assessment (NCA) program began with the immediate challenge of integrating the NCA effort with Texas Parks and Wildlife Department's (TPWD) Coastal Fisheries Division and its existing probabilistic Fishery Independent Monitoring Program. Close coordination and detailed planning along with a novel two boat sampling operation helped to make this alliance work. Partnerships with National Estuary Programs and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) greatly improved coverage of the Texas coast over the initial fifty station design. Airboats, biobags, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) corers were instrumental in overcoming numerous technical challenges. NCA data provide a more complete assessment of water and sediment quality than the traditional 305(b) report, with better spatial coverage and a measure of validity. There were differing patterns of PCBs, PAHs, DDTs and chlorinated pesticides, and metals such as mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) along the Texas coast. A confederation of Texas state agencies is considering ways to take advantage of probabilistic sampling designs to monitor the Texas coast. The TCEQ and TPWD are working on a joint project to redesign sediment and water quality monitoring that may serve as a springboard to a continuous monitoring program and opportunities for further improvement of ecosystem health assessment of the Texas coast.

  1. [Memory assessment by means of virtual reality: its present and future].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz-Orueta, Unai; Climent, Gema; Cardas-Ibanez, Jaione; Alonso, Laura; Olmo-Osa, Juan; Tirapu-Ustarroz, Javier

    2016-01-16

    The human memory is a complex cognitive system whose close relationship with executive functions implies that, in many occasions, a mnemonic deficit comprises difficulties to operate with correctly stored contents. Traditional memory tests, more focused in the information storage than in its processing, may be poorly sensitive both to subjects' daily life functioning and to changes originated by rehabilitation programs. In memory assessment, there is plenty evidence with regards to the need of improving it by means of tests which offer a higher ecological validity, with information that may be presented in various sensorial modalities and produced in a simultaneous way. Virtual reality reproduces three-dimensional environments with which the patient interacts in a dynamic way, with a sense of immersion in the environment similar to the presence and exposure to a real environment, and in which presentation of such stimuli, distractors and other variables may be systematically controlled. The current review aims to go deeply into the trajectory of neuropsychological assessment of memory based in virtual reality environments, making a tour through existing tests designed for assessing learning, prospective, episodic and spatial memory, as well as the most recent attempts to perform a comprehensive evaluation of all memory components.

  2. Microbial Community Assessment in Wetlands for Water Pollution Control: Past, Present, and Future Outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kela P. Weber

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The field of treatment wetlands (TWs is rapidly expanding and, arguably, is tasked with studying and understanding one of the most complex water treatment systems available. Microbial communities are generally considered to be responsible for the majority of wastewater constituent degradation in TWs. However, they are also known to be spatially heterogeneous, temporally dynamic, as well as structurally and functionally diverse. Presented here is a meta-analysis of all peer reviewed TW journal articles which utilized a microbial community assessment methodology over the period of 1988 to July 2016. A total of 1101 papers were reviewed, 512 from 1988 to 2012, 215 of which included a microbial community assessment aspect and were subsequently classified as representing past research, and 589 from 2013 to July 2016, 196 of which were classified as representing current TW microbial community research. In general, TW microbial community research has increased over time, with a marked surge in the past four years. Microbial community structure is currently the most commonly used methodological type followed by activity, enumeration and function, respectively. Areas of research focus included nitrogen transformations (156, organic degradation (33, and emerging contaminants (32, with general characterization studies also accounting for a significant proportion (243. Microbial communities from a range of TW systems have been investigated over the last four years with meso-scale (10–1000 L being the most commonly studied system size followed by large-scale (>100,000 L, micro-scale (<10 L, and pilot-scale (1000–100,000 L. Free water surface flow (SF, horizontal subsurface flow (HF, and vertical flow (VF systems are being studied in approximately equal proportions with the majority of studies focused on gaining fixed media/biofilm samples for analysis (rather than from the rhizosphere or interstitial water. Looking at efforts from a regional perspective

  3. Utilizing the Koeppen climate classification to assess the future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hori, M. E.; Yasunari, T.

    2007-12-01

    It is suggested that global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gasses will cause a large change in the mean temperature and precipitation patterns of the future. One way to quantify the impact of this change is to use the climate classification method. Classifying the climate into regions with distinct properties instead of using only physical properties such as temperature and precipitation helps to give an objective view of how climate change affects the environment such as the land-surface types and vegetation. TheKoeppen climate classification has a long history of application and modification and is known to give a robust classification of the mean climate that closely follows the distribution of vegetation types. In this study, we apply theKoeppen climate classification on the result of 19 Atmosphere-Ocean GCM results provided by the PCMDI for the upcoming IPCC - AR4. By applying this method to the long-term future projection of climate models, instability of a particular climate region and its expected change in the longer timescales are quantified. The classification is performed on the 20th century simulation (20C3M) and the SRES-A1B / A2 scenario based on the long-term monthly climatology. The overall changes in classifications as well as inter-model distribution is calculated for all each model and the skill weighted ensemble mean. Results show that due to warmer climate and increase in moisture, large area of western Russian region and north America experience a shift from aDf (snow / fully moist) climate to Cf (Warm temperate / fully moist) classification which is in good agreement with the stronger NAO/AO phase in the north Atlantic. On the other hand, coastal Greenland region changes from a Ef (Polar frost) classification to Ef (Polar tundra) classification, which is in good agreement with the SST and sea-ice distribution. In contrast, northern China undergoes a change from Cf classification to Cw (Warm temperate / winter dry) classification

  4. Proprioception: where are we now? A commentary on clinical assessment, changes across the life course, functional implications and future interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suetterlin, Karen Joan; Sayer, Avan Aihie

    2014-05-01

    Proprioception, the sense of where one is in space, is essential for effective interaction with the environment. A lack of or reduction in proprioceptive acuity has been directly correlated with falls and with reduced functional independence in older people. Proprioceptive losses have also been shown to negatively correlate with functional recovery post stroke and play a significant role in other conditions such as Parkinson's disease. However, despite its central importance to many geriatric syndromes, the clinical assessment of proprioception has remained remarkably static. We look at approaches to the clinical assessment of proprioception, changes in proprioception across the life course, functional implications of proprioception in health and disease and the potential for targeted interventions in the future such as joint taping, and proprioception-specific rehabilitation and footwear.

  5. Environmental impacts of future low-carbon electricity systems: Detailed life cycle assessment of a Danish case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turconi, Roberto; Tonini, Davide; Nielsen, Christian F.B.

    2014-01-01

    was assessed and compared with the current situation (2010) and an alternative 2030 scenario using life cycle assessment (LCA). The influence on the final results of the modeling approach used for (i) electricity import, (ii) biomass resources, and (iii) the cogeneration of heat and power was discussed...... by the modeling approach regarding the import of electricity, biomass provision, and the allocation between heat and power in cogeneration plants. As the importance of all three aspects is likely to increase in the future, transparency in LCA modeling is critical. Characterized impacts for Danish power plants....... Moreover, the results were very dependent upon biomass origin: when agricultural land was affected by biomass import, and land use changes and transportation were included, GHG emissions from imported biomass were comparable to those from fossil fuels. The results were significantly influenced...

  6. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  7. The Future of Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankel, Christian; Ossandón, José

    2013-01-01

    Review of Elena Esposito: The Future of Futures. The Time of Money in Financing and Society Cheltenham. Edward Elgar, 2011.......Review of Elena Esposito: The Future of Futures. The Time of Money in Financing and Society Cheltenham. Edward Elgar, 2011....

  8. A coupled Bayesian and fault tree methodology to assess future groundwater conditions in light of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Huang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Maintaining acceptable groundwater levels, particularly in arid areas, while protecting ecosystems, are key measures against desertification. Due to complicated hydrological processes and their inherent uncertainties, investigations of groundwater recharge conditions are challenging, particularly in arid areas under climate changing conditions. To assist planning to protect against desertification, a fault tree methodology, in conjunction with fuzzy logic and Bayesian data mining, are applied to Minqin Oasis, a highly vulnerable regime in northern China. A set of risk factors is employed within the fault tree framework, with fuzzy logic translating qualitative risk data into probabilities. Bayesian data mining is used to quantify the contribution of each risk factor to the final aggregated risk. The implications of both historical and future climate trends are employed for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET to assess water table changes under various future scenarios. The findings indicate that water table levels will continue to drop at the rate of 0.6 m yr−1 in the future when climatic effects alone are considered, if agricultural and industrial production capacity remain at 2004 levels.

  9. Examination and assessment of Puertollano IGCC power plant. A basis for future IGCC plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casero, P.; Guenster, W.; Kuske, E. [ELCOGAS S.A. (Spain)

    2005-07-01

    The main objective of the paper is the identification of weak points and critical areas for improvement of IGCC Puertollano plant design, according to commissioning and operation experience of ELCOGAS. The IGCC project has been divided in the next main systems: Gasification Unit, Air Separation Unit, Combined-Cycle Unit, Interface Systems, Control system, Auxiliary systems, and Project Development. Each subsection begins with a generally description of the performance of the respective system, highlighting the main problems encountered during operation. That description provides the necessary information to identify specific recommendations to improve availability and/or reduce operating/fixed costs. In order to do that, an exercise has been carried out to qualitatively describe every recommendation as an increase. The lessons learned will be used to develop an advanced IGCC concept with CO{sub 2} capture and H{sub 2} production based on Puertollano site conditions. These advanced concepts lead to ultra-efficient, zero-emissions future energy plants. ELCOGAS, in collaboration with SIEMENS and UHDE, have developed these activities through the project 'Pre-engineering studies for a new IGCC plant based on Puertollano ELCOGAS plant experience' funded by the EC's CARNOT Programme. 4 refs., 19 tabs.

  10. Railroad electrification in America's future: an assessment of prospects and impacts. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, R.K.; Yabroff, I.W.; Dickson, E.M.; Zink, R.A.; Gray, M.E.; Moon, A.E.

    1980-01-01

    Such considerations as the level of traffic, the relative financial health of individual railroads, the capacity of the associated supply and engineering/construction industries, and the logical connecting points at classifying yards, as well as the national interest value of creating a continuous system, continental in scope, were used to construct a scenario for railroad electrification that closely approximates how an electrification program might be implemented. For the economic reasons cited, much of the US railroad system would remain conventionally powered. This scenario provides for an electrified network involving 14 mainlines operated by 10 companies that could transport much of the nation's rail-borne freight. Five years of planning and engineering work would be required for each link before construction could begin. With 1000 miles or less of electrified route per year, 14 years would be needed to construct the 9000-mile network of our scenario. (The scenario constructed runs from 1980 to 1998.) The analysis was aided with the construction of the SRI Railroad Industry Model. Basically a model of industry operations and finances, the model produces income statements and balance sheets at yearly intervals. Railroad energy costs, railroad freight levels, maintenance costs, purchases and leases of rooling stock, electrification facility investments, future inflation, rate setting practices, annual depreciation, taxes, and profits were calculated.

  11. Assessing future flood hazards for adaptation planning in a northern European coastal community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo eSorensen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available From a transdisciplinary approach in the town of Thyboron, Denmark, we investigate couplings between sea state (i.e. mean and extreme and flooding hazards today and ahead. This includes analyses of change and variability in the groundwater table, precipitation, land motion, geotechnical ground properties, sewerage systems and other infrastructure to outline a more complete platform for the integration of knowledge into climate adaptation schemes at this highly vulnerable coastal location. It involves the engagement of the main stakeholders who, although having different responsibilities, interests, needs of knowledge and data, and different timeframes for investment and planning, must join in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead to provide for better adaptation measures. Apart from obvious adverse effects from future storm surge events, knowledge about the coupled effects of the abovementioned parameters needs to be taken into account to reach optimal mitigation and adaptation measures. Through stakeholder interviews it becomes clear that an enhanced focus on transdisciplinary research is a viable way forward to develop such measures: it will bring in more knowledge, a broader scope, and it will provide for more holistic solutions that both serve to protect the town and allow for business development and better municipal planning ahead.

  12. Assessing the Fauna Diversity of Marudu Bay Mangrove Forest, Sabah, Malaysia, for Future Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Zakaria

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Mangrove is an evergreen, salt tolerant plant community, which grows in inter-tidal coastal zones of tropical and subtropical regions of the world. They are ecologically important for many fauna species and are rich in food resources and consist of many different vegetation structures. They serve as ideal foraging and nursery grounds for a wide array of species such as birds, mammals, reptiles, fishes and aquatic invertebrates. In spite of their crucial role, around 50% of mangrove habitats have been lost and degraded in the past two decades. The fauna diversity of mangrove habitat at Marudu Bay, Sabah, East Malaysia was examined using various methods: i.e. aquatic invertebrates by swap nets, fish by angling rods and cast nets, reptiles, birds, and mammals through direct sighting. The result showed that Marudu Bay mangrove habitats harbored a diversity of fauna species including 22 aquatic invertebrate species (encompassing 11 crustacean species, six mollusk species and four worm species, 36 fish species, 74 bird species, four reptile species, and four mammal species. The wide array of fauna species could be due to the availability of complex vegetation structures, sheltered beaches and tidal mudflats, which are rich in food resources and also offer safe foraging and breeding grounds for them. These heterogeneous habitats must be protected in a sustainable way in order to ensure the continued presence of aquatic and terrestrial fauna species for future generations.

  13. Assessment of the potential future market in Sweden for hydrogen as an energy carrier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleson, G.

    Future hydrogen markets for the period 1980-2025 are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs for various manufacturing methods is estimated, and expected market shares in competition with alternative energy carriers are evaluated. A general scenario for economic and industrial development in Sweden for the given period was evaluated, showing the average increase in gross national product to become 1.6% per year. Three different energy scenarios were then developed: alternatives were based on nuclear energy, renewable indigenous energy sources, and the present energy situation with free access to imported natural or synthetic fuels. An analysis was made within each scenario of the competitiveness of hydrogen on both the demand and the supply of the following sectors: chemical industry, steel industry, peak power production, residential and commercial heating, and transportation. Costs were calculated for the production, storage and transmission of hydrogen according to technically feasible methods and were compared to those of alternative energy carriers. Health, environmental and societal implications were also considered. The market penetration of hydrogen in each sector was estimated, and the required investment capital was shown to be less than 4% of the national gross investment sum.

  14. Current and Future Friends of the Earth: Assessing Cross-National Theories of Environmental Attitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Stenner

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Empirical studies of public opinion on environmental protection have typically been grounded in Inglehart’s post-materialism thesis, proposing that societal affluence encourages materially-sated publics to look beyond their interests and value the environment. These studies are generally conducted within, or at best across, Western, democratic, industrialized countries. Absence of truly cross-cultural research means the theory’s limitations have gone undetected. This article draws on an exceptionally broad dataset—pooling cross-sectional survey data from 80 countries, each sampled at up to three different points over 15 years—to investigate environmental attitudes. We find that post-materialism provides little account of pro-environment attitudes across diverse cultures, and a far from adequate explanation even in the affluent West. We suggest that unique domestic interests, more than broad value systems, are driving emerging global trends in environmental attitudes. The environment’s future champions may be the far from ‘post-material’ citizens of those developing nations most at risk of real material harm from climate change and environmental degradation.

  15. Automated essay scoring and the future of educational assessment in medical education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gierl, Mark J; Latifi, Syed; Lai, Hollis; Boulais, André-Philippe; De Champlain, André

    2014-10-01

    Constructed-response tasks, which range from short-answer tests to essay questions, are included in assessments of medical knowledge because they allow educators to measure students' ability to think, reason, solve complex problems, communicate and collaborate through their use of writing. However, constructed-response tasks are also costly to administer and challenging to score because they rely on human raters. One alternative to the manual scoring process is to integrate computer technology with writing assessment. The process of scoring written responses using computer programs is known as 'automated essay scoring' (AES). An AES system uses a computer program that builds a scoring model by extracting linguistic features from a constructed-response prompt that has been pre-scored by human raters and then, using machine learning algorithms, maps the linguistic features to the human scores so that the computer can be used to classify (i.e. score or grade) the responses of a new group of students. The accuracy of the score classification can be evaluated using different measures of agreement. Automated essay scoring provides a method for scoring constructed-response tests that complements the current use of selected-response testing in medical education. The method can serve medical educators by providing the summative scores required for high-stakes testing. It can also serve medical students by providing them with detailed feedback as part of a formative assessment process. Automated essay scoring systems yield scores that consistently agree with those of human raters at a level as high, if not higher, as the level of agreement among human raters themselves. The system offers medical educators many benefits for scoring constructed-response tasks, such as improving the consistency of scoring, reducing the time required for scoring and reporting, minimising the costs of scoring, and providing students with immediate feedback on constructed-response tasks. © 2014

  16. Continuous retinal vessel diameter measurements: the future in retinal vessel assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitmar, Rebekka; Blann, Andrew D; Cubbidge, Robert P; Lip, Gregory Y H; Gherghel, Doina

    2010-11-01

    To establish an alternative method, sequential and diameter response analysis (SDRA), to determine dynamic retinal vessel responses and their time course in serial stimulation compared with the established method of averaged diameter responses and standard static assessment. SDRA focuses on individual time and diameter responses, taking into account the fluctuation in baseline diameter, providing improved insight into reaction patterns when compared with established methods as delivered by retinal vessel analyzer (RVA) software. SDRA patterns were developed with measurements from 78 healthy nonsmokers and subsequently validated in a group of 21 otherwise healthy smokers. Fundus photography and retinal vessel responses were assessed by RVA, intraocular pressure by contact tonometry, and blood pressure by sphygmomanometry. Compared with the RVA software method, SDRA demonstrated a marked difference in retinal vessel responses to flickering light (P SDRA showed a strong relation between baseline retinal vessel diameter and subsequent dilatory response in both healthy subjects and smokers (P = 0.001). The RVA software was unable to detect this difference or to find a difference in retinal vessel arteriovenous ratio between smokers and nonsmokers (P = 0.243). However, SDRA revealed that smokers' vessels showed both an increased level of arterial baseline diameter fluctuation before flicker stimulation (P = 0.005) and an increased stiffness of retinal arterioles (P = 0.035) compared with those in nonsmokers. These differences were unrelated to intraocular pressure or systemic blood pressure. SDRA shows promise as a tool for the assessment of vessel physiology. Further studies are needed to explore its application in patients with vascular diseases.

  17. Life cycle assessment of three water systems in Copenhagen - A management tool of the future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godskesen, Berit; Zambrano, K.C.; Trautner, A.

    2010-01-01

    Environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA) was applied to evaluate three different water systems of the water sector in Copenhagen, Denmark, including technologies within water supply, facilities recycling water and treatment of sewer overflow. In these three water systems LCA was used to evaluate...... the environmental impacts of each of the processes involved. The overall conclusion was that LCA is suitable as a decision support tool in the water sector as it provides a holistic evaluation platform of the considered alternatives categorized in environmental impact categories. The use of LCA in the water sector...

  18. Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvacion, Arnold R; Pangga, Ireneo B; Cumagun, Christian Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions.

  19. Outcome measures in spinal cord injury: recent assessments and recommendations for future directions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexander, M S; Anderson, K D; Biering-Sørensen, Fin;

    2009-01-01

    Study design:Review by the spinal cord outcomes partnership endeavor (SCOPE), which is a broad-based international consortium of scientists and clinical researchers representing academic institutions, industry, government agencies, not-for-profit organizations and foundations. Objectives:Assessment...... of current and evolving tools for evaluating human spinal cord injury (SCI) outcomes for both clinical diagnosis and clinical research studies. Methods:a framework for the appraisal of evidence of metric properties was used to examine outcome tools or tests for accuracy, sensitivity, reliability and validity...

  20. Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

    2013-11-01

    Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned.

  1. Ambulatory Assessment in the Research on Aging: Contemporary and Future Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brose, Annette; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich W

    2015-01-01

    Older adults have surprisingly high levels of well-being, which has been referred to as a paradox in the past. Improved emotion regulation has been suggested to underlie these high levels of well-being. Later life is also a period with enhanced exposure to critical life events, and this comes with risks. During such times, and towards the end of life, emotional well-being may and eventually does decline. We suggest that ambulatory assessment (AA) is ideally suited for the investigation of the above phenomena and for intervention purposes. More precisely, AA can be used to thoroughly examine within-person processes of emotion regulation, including the multiple levels on which emotions occur (physiology, experience, behavior, context, and nonverbal expressions). It thereby provides a basis for understanding competent emotion regulation, the well-being paradox, and emotionally critical periods. Such insights can be utilized to detect person-specific critical periods and for designing immediate person-specific interventions. Although this is still a vision, the benefits of such an approach seem invaluable. The major part of this paper is organized around three general principles that we suggest to further tap the potential of AA in aging research, namely (1) identify within-subject processes and their relations to important life outcomes; (2) capitalize on the full scope of AA technology via multivariate assessments, and (3) combine real-time monitoring with real-time interventions.

  2. Planning for sustainable tourism in southern Pulau Banggi: an assessment of biophysical conditions and their implications for future tourism development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Lydia; Cabanban, Annadel S

    2007-12-01

    A priori assessments of a site's biophysical and socio-economic capacity for accommodating tourism are less common than tourism impact studies. A priori evaluations can provide a contextual understanding of ecological, economic and socio-cultural forces, which shape the prospects for sustainable tourism development at the host destination, and can avert adverse impacts of tourism. We conduct an a priori assessment of the biophysical environment of Pulau Banggi, in the Malaysian state of Sabah for sustainable tourism development. We characterise baseline conditions of the island's marine biodiversity, seasonality, and infrastructure. We then evaluate how existing biophysical conditions will influence options for sustainable tourism development. In particular, we suggest conditions, if there are any, which constitute a limit to future tourism development in terms of compatibility for recreation and resilience to visitor impacts. We find that the biggest constraint is the lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Blast fishing, although occurring less than once per hour, can potentially destroy the major attraction for tourists. We conclude that while Pulau Banggi possesses natural qualities that are attractive for ecotourism, financial and institutional support must be made available to provide facilities and services that will enable local participation in environmental protection and enhance prospects for future sustainable tourism.

  3. Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

    2016-12-01

    Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

  4. Assessing the Future Vehicle Fleet Electrification: The Impacts on Regional and Urban Air Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, Wenwei; Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Hao, Jiming

    2017-01-17

    There have been significant advancements in electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years. However, the different changing patterns in emissions at upstream and on-road stages and complex atmospheric chemistry of pollutants lead to uncertainty in the air quality benefits from fleet electrification. This study considers the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in China to investigate whether EVs can improve future air quality. The Community Multiscale Air Quality model enhanced by the two-dimensional volatility basis set module is applied to simulate the temporally, spatially, and chemically resolved changes in PM2.5 concentrations and the changes of other pollutants from fleet electrification. A probable scenario (Scenario EV1) with 20% of private light-duty passenger vehicles and 80% of commercial passenger vehicles (e.g., taxis and buses) electrified can reduce average PM2.5 concentrations by 0.4 to 1.1 μg m(-3) during four representative months for all urban areas of YRD in 2030. The seasonal distinctions of the air quality impacts with respect to concentration reductions in key aerosol components are also identified. For example, the PM2.5 reduction in January is mainly attributed to the nitrate reduction, whereas the secondary organic aerosol reduction is another essential contributor in August. EVs can also effectively assist in mitigating NO2 concentrations, which would gain greater reductions for traffic-dense urban areas (e.g., Shanghai). This paper reveals that the fleet electrification in the YRD region could generally play a positive role in improving regional and urban air quality.

  5. Future mobility case studies. Life cycle assessments of BEVs and ICVs with a global perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Hongrui; Riera-Palou, Xavier; Tait, Nigel [Shell Global Solutions (United Kingdom), Chester (United Kingdom). Shell Technology Center Thornton; Balthasar, Felix; Warnecke, Wolfgang [Shell Global Solutions (Deutschland) GmbH, Hamburg (Germany). PAE-Labor

    2012-11-01

    To highlight the potential risks associated with simplification, we present a relevant case study on electric vehicles, where the outcome of the analysis changes substantially with the methodological/system boundary choices made. Electric vehicles have increasingly gained worldwide interest as one of the most promising potential long-term solutions to sustainable personal mobility; in particular, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer zero tailpipe emissions enabling them not only to reduce transport GHG emissions but also to reduce other regulated emissions (e.g. smog). However, their true ability to contribute to GHG emissions reductions can only be properly assessed by comparing a full life cycle assessment of their GHG emissions with a similar assessment for conventional internal combustion vehicles (ICVs). In this study, we have carried out an analysis for vehicles typical of those expected to be introduced in 2012 in Western Europe, the U.S. and China, taking into account the impact of three important factors: (a) like-forlike vehicle comparison and effect of real-world driving conditions, (b) accounting for the GHG emissions associated with meeting the additional electricity demand for charging the batteries, and (c) the GHG emissions associated with the vehicle life cycle (e.g. manufacture and disposal, etc). We find that BEVs can deliver significant GHG savings compared to ICVs providing that the grid GHG intensity used to charge the batteries is sufficiently low. In particular, BEVs perform best relative to ICVs in terms of GHG emissions in low speed (e.g. urban) driving and when lightly loaded with weight and auxiliaries. However, vehicle life cycle emissions are higher for BEVs than ICVs due to the GHG emissions associated with battery manufacture. Furthermore, our analysis illustrates that it is inappropriate to draw general conclusions about the relative GHG performance of BEVs and ICVs without due reference to the context - such relative performance

  6. Monte carlo simulations of the TOSCA spectrometer: Assessment of current performance and future upgrades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinna, Roberto S.; Rudić, Svemir; Parker, Stewart F.; Gorini, Giuseppe; Fernandez-Alonso, Felix

    2015-01-01

    We describe and assess the performance of a detailed computational description of the high-resolution TOSCA spectrometer at ISIS using neutron-transport Monte Carlo simulations. Extensive calculations using the McStas software package have been performed using the present instrument geometry and compared with available experimental data. The agreement between expected and measured performance is satisfactory in terms of the incident flux spectrum, associated time structure, and spectroscopic resolution. Encouraged by these results, we also consider the upgrade of the primary spectrometer with a tapered high-m guide. This instrument development offers the exciting prospects of providing order-of-magnitude gains in detected neutron flux over the energy-transfer range of the instrument whilst preserving its outstanding spectroscopic capabilities.

  7. Monte carlo simulations of the TOSCA spectrometer: Assessment of current performance and future upgrades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinna Roberto S.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We describe and assess the performance of a detailed computational description of the high-resolution TOSCA spectrometer at ISIS using neutron-transport Monte Carlo simulations. Extensive calculations using the McStas software package have been performed using the present instrument geometry and compared with available experimental data. The agreement between expected and measured performance is satisfactory in terms of the incident flux spectrum, associated time structure, and spectroscopic resolution. Encouraged by these results, we also consider the upgrade of the primary spectrometer with a tapered high-m guide. This instrument development offers the exciting prospects of providing order-of-magnitude gains in detected neutron flux over the energy-transfer range of the instrument whilst preserving its outstanding spectroscopic capabilities.

  8. A new approach for assessing the future of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, James J.; Whittemore, Donald O.; Wilson, Blake B.; Bohling, Geoffrey C.

    2016-03-01

    Aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture are under stress worldwide as a result of large pumping-induced water deficits. To aid in the formulation of more sustainable management plans for such systems, we have developed a water balance approach for assessing the impact of proposed management actions and the prospects for aquifer sustainability. Application to the High Plains aquifer (HPA) in the state of Kansas in the United States reveals that practically achievable reductions in annual pumping (HPA from 1996 to 2013. This demonstrates that modest pumping reductions can have a significant impact and highlights the importance of reliable pumping data for determining the net inflow (capture) component of the water balance. The HPA is similar to many aquifers supporting critically needed agricultural production, so the presented approach should prove of value far beyond the area of this initial application.

  9. The clean development mechanism: Assessment of experience and expectations for the future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maosheng, D.

    2009-07-01

    With the aim of promoting further the CDM's objectives, now is the time to look back and review the performance of the international rules and to consider possible improvements to the mechanism for the period after 2012. To this end, the paper provides an overview of the requirements for CDM projects by the Kyoto Protocol and the Marrakesh Accords. It then assesses the performance of CDM projects based on current practice regarding six aspects: emission reductions, sustainable development, environmental impact, technology transfer, geographical distribution and transparency, efficiency, and the effectiveness of the system in operation. Expectations for the post-2012 CDM regime are proposed. Finally, proposals on the scaling-up of the CDM are discussed and some initial thoughts considered. (au)

  10. Current status and future prospects for the assessment of marine and coastal ecosystem services: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Drakou, Evangelia G; Gurney, Leigh; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Charef, Aymen; Egoh, Benis

    2013-01-01

    Research on ecosystem services has grown exponentially during the last decade. Most of the studies have focused on assessing and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services highlighting a knowledge gap on marine and coastal ecosystem services (MCES) and an urgent need to assess them. We reviewed and summarized existing scientific literature related to MCES with the aim of extracting and classifying indicators used to assess and map them. We found 145 papers that specifically assessed marine and coastal ecosystem services from which we extracted 476 indicators. Food provision, in particular fisheries, was the most extensively analyzed MCES while water purification and coastal protection were the most frequently studied regulating and maintenance services. Also recreation and tourism under the cultural services was relatively well assessed. We highlight knowledge gaps regarding the availability of indicators that measure the capacity, flow or benefit derived from each ecosystem service. The majority of the case studies was found in mangroves and coastal wetlands and was mainly concentrated in Europe and North America. Our systematic review highlighted the need of an improved ecosystem service classification for marine and coastal systems, which is herein proposed with definitions and links to previous classifications. This review summarizes the state of available information related to ecosystem services associated with marine and coastal ecosystems. The cataloging of MCES indicators and the integrated classification of MCES provided in this paper establish a background that can facilitate the planning and integration of future assessments. The final goal is to establish a consistent structure and populate it with information able to support the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies.

  11. SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS OF AYUSH: AN ASSESSMENT THROUGH FIVE YEAR PLANS OF INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janmejaya Samal

    2015-12-01

    the concerned community. In this paper the five year planning documents have been reviewed, from first plan to 12th plan, to enable reflection and throw some light in to the future directions of AYUSH system. [J Intercult Ethnopharmacol 2015; 4(4.000: 348-354

  12. Anticipating the Future, Influencing the Present: Assessing the Societal Implications of Emerging Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelson, Evan S.

    informed by evidence from a range of sources, including document analysis, semi-structured interviews, and multiple media analyses. Finally, this study highlights a set of cross-cutting, transferable lessons that can be applied as future emerging technologies arise over time. The intention is that the insights gained from this study can help address these pressing issues as they rapidly unfold.

  13. Molecular epidemiology in cancer risk assessment and prevention: recent progress and avenues for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wogan, G N

    1992-01-01

    these changes are known to occur in chemically induced tumors of experimental animals, the possible role of chemical carcinogens in the induction of genetic abnormalities in human cancers has yet to be determined. Continuing investigations employing the methods of molecular epidemiology promise to provide further evidence concerning these relationships. Future investigations employing newly developed molecular biological methods, in particular those based on polymerase chain reaction amplification of DNA, to identify alterations in DNA and chromosomal structure, combined with methods for characterizing exposure to carcinogens and early effects, have great potential for further elucidating the role of genotoxic agents in the etiology of human cancers and also for the development of strategies for their prevention. PMID:1486846

  14. Situational analysis and future directions of AYUSH: An assessment through 5-year plans of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samal, Janmejaya

    2015-01-01

    5-year planning documents have been reviewed, from the 1stplan to 12thplan, to enable reflection and throw some light into the future directions of AYUSH system. PMID:26649240

  15. Situational analysis and future directions of AYUSH: An assessment through 5-year plans of India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samal, Janmejaya

    2015-01-01

    study, the 5-year planning documents have been reviewed, from the 1(st)plan to 12(th)plan, to enable reflection and throw some light into the future directions of AYUSH system.

  16. Assessment of future Nile flow through an ensemble of RCM simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buontempo, Carlo; Ezzat Elshamy, Mohamed; Lørup, Jens Kristian; Jones, Richard; Butts, Mike; Betts, Richard; Hassan, Mohamed; Amin, Doaa M.; Kotb, Alaa-Eldin M.; Palin, Erika; Sanderson, Michael; McCarthy, Rachel

    2010-05-01

    The Nile represents a crucial resource for the economy of eastern and north-eastern Africa. Agriculture, energy production and livelihood in general depend strongly on the river. Assessing the impact that climate change may have on water resources is thus of critical importance for the people living in the Nile Basin. The objective of this study, carried out in close collaboration between the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation in Egypt, UK Met Office Hadley Centre and DHI, is to assess the possible impacts of climate change on the Nile river flow and in particular the inflow to the High Aswan Dam. Using climate models to inform water-related policies in the Nile Basin is a complex matter: the range of projections of change in both precipitation and river runoff tends to be wide with no consensus even on the sign of change. Previous studies (e.g. Conway & Hulme 1996; Strzepek & Yates 1996; Strzepek et al. 1996; Yates & Strzepek 1998) have shown the difficulty in assessing the impacts of climate change on Egyptian water resources. It is important to consider uncertainties in climate projections, since precise forecasts are not possible. Probabilistic projections have previously been generated by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the UK (the UK Climate Projections 2009, or UKCP09), involving a complex hierarchy of global and regional climate models, simple climate models and statistical techniques. Here we use an approach aligned to part of the full UKCP09 methodology, in which we perform a number of simulations with the PRECIS regional climate model driven by boundary conditions from several different variants of the HadCM3 GCM. Each of these versions was characterised by different values for a set of parameters that describe the basic unresolved physical processes (e.g. Palmer and Williams 2008) and simulate a range of plausible climate changes over the region. For this project a set of 5 GCM ensemble members was initially selected from the 17 transient runs

  17. A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

    1998-01-01

    Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

  18. In search of future earths: assessing the possibility of finding Earth analogues in the later stages of their habitable lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley-James, Jack T; Greaves, Jane S; Raven, John A; Cockell, Charles S

    2015-05-01

    Earth will become uninhabitable within 2-3 Gyr as a result of the increasing luminosity of the Sun changing the boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ). Predictions about the future of habitable conditions on Earth include declining species diversity and habitat extent, ocean loss, and changes to geochemical cycles. Testing these predictions is difficult, but the discovery of a planet that is an analogue to future Earth could provide the means to test them. This planet would need to have an Earth-like biosphere history and to be approaching the inner edge of the HZ at present. Here, we assess the possibility of finding such a planet and discuss the benefits of analyzing older Earths. Finding an old-Earth analogue in nearby star systems would be ideal, because this would allow for atmospheric characterization. Hence, as an illustrative example, G stars within 10 pc of the Sun are assessed as potential old-Earth-analog hosts. Six of these represent good potential hosts. For each system, a hypothetical Earth analogue is placed at locations within the continuously habitable zone (CHZ) that would allow enough time for Earth-like biosphere development. Surface temperature evolution over the host star's main sequence lifetime (assessed by using a simple climate model) is used to determine whether the planet would be in the right stage of its late-habitable lifetime to exhibit detectable biosignatures. The best candidate, in terms of the chances of planet formation in the CHZ and of biosignature detection, is 61 Virginis. However, planet formation studies suggest that only a small fraction (0.36%) of G stars in the solar neighborhood could host an old-Earth analogue. If the development of Earth-like biospheres is rare, requiring a sequence of low-probability events to occur, biosphere evolution models suggest they are rarer still, with only thousands being present in the Galaxy as a whole.

  19. Assessment of the Future Health Burden Attributable to Undernutrition under the Latest Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-05-01

    There are growing concerns that future food security will be negatively affected by various factors, such as changes in socioeconomic and climate conditions. The health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition is among the most severe problems related to food crisis in the world. This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. We used three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) as future population and gross domestic products (GDP), three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and 12 Global Circulation Models (12 GCMs) to estimate climate conditions. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. A logarithmic relationship was proposed for the regression model. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model (M-GAEZ), and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 23 ~ 60% in 2030 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. DAtU decreases further by 2050 for SSP1 and SSP2 scenario, whereas it slightly increases for SSP3. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. ii) the impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. The impact of changes in socioeconomic conditions on the health burden is greater in the regions where current health burden is high. iii) parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on

  20. Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

  1. Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

    2001-07-01

    With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

  2. Assessment of future streamflow changes in major rivers of West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roudier, Philippe; Rojas, Rodrigo; Bisselink, Bernard; Feyen, Luc

    2013-04-01

    Although being one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change, impact studies in West Africa, especially concerning water resources, are still scarce compared to other regions such as Europe, North-America or Asia. Therefore, we investigate in this study how climate change may affect the main rivers of West Africa (Niger, Volta, Senegal) using the global LISFLOOD model. This hydrological rainfall-runoff model, extensively used for pan-European assessments, has been recently set up and calibrated for Africa, allowing such impact analysis. Here, LISFLOOD is set up on a 0.1*0.1 degree grid for the period 1991-2050. Quantifying the uncertainty in climate impact studies is now a fundamental task, especially in West Africa where the agreement among rainfall projections is low. We therefore employ an ensemble of climate experiments originating from 8 different GCM/RCM combinations obtained from the EU FP6 ENSEMBLES project (SRES A1B scenario). Prior to forcing LISFLOOD, bias in the precipitation and temperature fields (Tmin, Tavg and Tmax) is removed with a quantile mapping method using as target the WATCH Forcing Data. In order to take into account the high population growth in West Africa we also account for projected changes in water use. Results first focus on changes in average streamflow conditions and how these changes affect water availability, expressed by the Water Exploitation Index. Second, and as underlined by the recent SREX IPCC report (2012), we show the impacts on extreme events (droughts and floods) using relevant indices such as the 100-year return period flood.

  3. Health technology assessment and its role in the future development of the Indian healthcare sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hass, Bastian; Pooley, Jayne; Feuring, Martin; Suvarna, Viraj; Harrington, Adrian E

    2012-04-01

    Public expenditure on healthcare in India is low by international comparison, and access to essential treatment pushes many uninsured citizens below the poverty line. In many countries, policymakers utilize health technology assessment (HTA) methodologies to direct investments in healthcare, to obtain the maximum benefit for the population as a whole. With rising incomes and a commitment from the Government of India to increase the proportion of gross domestic product spent on health, this is an opportune moment to consider how HTA might help to allocate healthcare spending in India, in an equitable and efficient manner. Despite the predominance of out-of-pocket payments in the Indian healthcare sector, payers of all types are increasingly demanding value for money from expenditure on healthcare. In this review we demonstrate how HTA can be used to inform several aspects of healthcare provision. Areas in which HTA could be applied in the Indian context include, drug pricing, development of clinical practice guidelines, and prioritizing interventions that represent the greatest value within a limited budget. To illustrate the potential benefits of using the HTA approach, we present an example from a mature HTA market (Canada) that demonstrates how a new treatment for patients with atrial fibrillation - although more expensive than the current standard of care - improves clinical outcomes and represents a cost-effective use of public health resources. If aligned with the prevailing cultural and ethical considerations, and with the necessary investment in expert staff and resources, HTA promises to be a valuable tool for development of the Indian healthcare sector.

  4. Health technology assessment and its role in the future development of the Indian healthcare sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bastian Hass

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Public expenditure on healthcare in India is low by international comparison, and access to essential treatment pushes many uninsured citizens below the poverty line. In many countries, policymakers utilize health technology assessment (HTA methodologies to direct investments in healthcare, to obtain the maximum benefit for the population as a whole. With rising incomes and a commitment from the Government of India to increase the proportion of gross domestic product spent on health, this is an opportune moment to consider how HTA might help to allocate healthcare spending in India, in an equitable and efficient manner. Despite the predominance of out-of-pocket payments in the Indian healthcare sector, payers of all types are increasingly demanding value for money from expenditure on healthcare. In this review we demonstrate how HTA can be used to inform several aspects of healthcare provision. Areas in which HTA could be applied in the Indian context include, drug pricing, development of clinical practice guidelines, and prioritizing interventions that represent the greatest value within a limited budget. To illustrate the potential benefits of using the HTA approach, we present an example from a mature HTA market (Canada that demonstrates how a new treatment for patients with atrial fibrillation - although more expensive than the current standard of care - improves clinical outcomes and represents a cost-effective use of public health resources. If aligned with the prevailing cultural and ethical considerations, and with the necessary investment in expert staff and resources, HTA promises to be a valuable tool for development of the Indian healthcare sector.

  5. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study-Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E; Ankley, Gerald T; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y; Burgoon, Lyle D; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B; Edwards, Stephen W; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T; Thayer, Kristina A; Thomas, Russell S; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R; Vandenberg, John J; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S

    2016-11-01

    , Bois FY, Burgoon LD, Chiu WA, Crawford-Brown D, Crofton KM, DeVito M, Devlin RB, Edwards SW, Guyton KZ, Hattis D, Judson RS, Knight D, Krewski D, Lambert J, Maull EA, Mendrick D, Paoli GM, Patel CJ, Perkins EJ, Poje G, Portier CJ, Rusyn I, Schulte PA, Simeonov A, Smith MT, Thayer KA, Thomas RS, Thomas R, Tice RR, Vandenberg JJ, Villeneuve DL, Wesselkamper S, Whelan M, Whittaker C, White R, Xia M, Yauk C, Zeise L, Zhao J, DeWoskin RS. 2016. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment multiyear study-highlights of findings, applications to risk assessment, and future directions. Environ Health Perspect 124:1671-1682; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP233.

  6. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    , Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K, Bois FY, Burgoon LD, Chiu WA, Crawford-Brown D, Crofton KM, DeVito M, Devlin RB, Edwards SW, Guyton KZ, Hattis D, Judson RS, Knight D, Krewski D, Lambert J, Maull EA, Mendrick D, Paoli GM, Patel CJ, Perkins EJ, Poje G, Portier CJ, Rusyn I, Schulte PA, Simeonov A, Smith MT, Thayer KA, Thomas RS, Thomas R, Tice RR, Vandenberg JJ, Villeneuve DL, Wesselkamper S, Whelan M, Whittaker C, White R, Xia M, Yauk C, Zeise L, Zhao J, DeWoskin RS. 2016. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment multiyear study—highlights of findings, applications to risk assessment, and future directions. Environ Health Perspect 124:1671–1682; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP233 PMID:27091369

  7. Gap-prepulse inhibition of the startle reflex (GPIAS for tinnitus assessment: current status and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander eGalazyuk

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The progress in the field of tinnitus largely depends on the development of a reliable tinnitus animal model. Recently a new method based on the acoustic startle reflex modification was introduced for tinnitus screening in laboratory animals. This method was enthusiastically adopted and now widely used by many scientists in the field due to its seeming simplicity and a number of advantages over the other methods of tinnitus assessment. Furthermore, this method opened an opportunity for tinnitus assessment in humans as well. Unfortunately multiple modifications of data collection and interpretation implemented in different labs make comparisons across studies very difficult. In addition, recent animal and human studies have challenged the original filling-in interpretation of the paradigm. Here we review the current literature to emphasize on the commonalities and differences in data collection and interpretation across laboratories that are using this method for tinnitus assessment. We also propose future research directions that could be taken in order to establish whether or not this method is warranted as an indicator of the presence of tinnitus.

  8. Biocatalyzed processes for production of commodity chemicals: Assessment of future research advances for N-butanol production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingham, J. D.

    1984-01-01

    This report is a summary of assessments by Chem Systems Inc. and a further evaluation of the impacts of research advances on energy efficiency and the potential for future industrial production of acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) solvents and other products by biocatalyzed processes. Brief discussions of each of the assessments made by CSI, followed by estimates of minimum projected energy consumption and costs for production of solvents by ABE biocatalyzed processes are included. These assessments and further advances discussed in this report show that substantial decreases in energy consumption and costs are possible on the basis of specific research advances; therefore, it appears that a biocatalyzed process for ABE can be developed that will be competitive with conventional petrochemical processes for production of n-butanol and acetone. (In this work, the ABE process was selected and utilized only as an example for methodology development; other possible bioprocesses for production of commodity chemicals are not intended to be excluded.) It has been estimated that process energy consumption can be decreased by 50%, with a corresponding cost reduction of 15-30% (in comparison with a conventional petrochemical process) by increasing microorganism tolerance to n-butanol and efficient recovery of product solvents from the vapor phase.

  9. Bilio-entero-gastrostomy: prospective assessment of a modified biliary reconstruction with facilitated future endoscopic access

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamad Mostafa A

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hepaticojejunostomy (HJ is the classical reconstruction for benign biliary stricture. Endoscopic management of anastomotic complications after hepaticojejunostomy is extremely difficult. In this work we assess a modified biliary reconstruction in the form of bilio-entero-gastrostomy (BEG regarding the feasibility of endoscopic access to HJ and management of its stenosis if encountered. Methods From October 2008 till February 2011 all patients presented to the authors with benign biliary stricture who needed bilio-enteric shunt were considered. For each patient bilio-entero-gastrostomy (BEG of either type I, II or III was constructed. In the fourth week postoperatively, endoscopy was performed to explore the possibility to access the biliary anastomosis and perform cholangiography. Results BEG shunt was performed for seventeen patients, one of whom, with BEG type I, died due to myocardial infarction leaving sixteen patients with a diagnosis of postcholecystectomy biliary injury (9, inflammatory stricture with or without choledocholithiasis (5 and strictured biliary shunt (2. BEG shunts were either type I (3, type II (3 or type III (10. Endoscopic follow up revealed successful access to the anastomosis in 14 patients (87.5%, while the access failed in one type I and one type II BEG (12.5%. Mean time needed to access the anastomosis was 12.6 min (2-55 min. On a scale from 1–5, mean endoscopic difficulty score was 1.7. One patient (6.25%, with BEG type I, developed anastomotic stricture after 18 months that was successfully treated endoscopically by stenting. These preliminary results showed that, in relation to the other types, type III BEG demonstrated the tendency to be surgically simpler to perform, endoscopicall faster to access, easier and with no failure. Conclusions BEG, which is a modified biliary reconstruction, facilitates endoscopic access of the biliary anastomosis, offers management option for its

  10. Actuarial assessment of future loss scenarios in the German insurance sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubik, A.; Boehm, U.; Born, K.; Broecker, U.; Buechner, M.; Burghoff, O.; Donat, M.; Gerstengarbe, F. W.; Hattermann, F. F.; Held, H.; Kuecken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ludwig, P.; Nocke, T.; Oesterle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Pinto, J. G.; Prahl, B. F.; Ulbrich, U.; Werner, P. C.

    2012-04-01

    adapt to climate change. For this purpose stakeholder usually need ascertained numbers. Because our results were achieved using ensemble techniques they display per se a considerable spread. Despite this fact our results are robust over all approaches and climate models. Therefore they can be used for strategic decisions, less for daily routine business. Higher and more frequent losses will require higher venture capital and must be taken into account when implementing the EU directive Solvency II. If we assess our results carefully and act farseeing, we will be able to draw from manifold activities to deal with climate change impacts. Smart portfolio policy can help to reduce risks. Working with limits and franchises can help to insure highly exposed risks. Therefore GDV offers to his member companies wide accepted tools and risk models such as ZÜRS Geo, HQ Kumul and detailed risk statistics. After all, well-directed information policy, increased risk awareness and preventive action can reduce climate change impacts significantly.

  11. Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, I P; Brown, C; Janes, V; Sandars, D

    2017-02-01

    The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (< 33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European

  12. Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Sizo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

  13. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helge Walentowski

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

  14. Cost outlook for the production of biofuels. A cost comparison assessment of the future production of biofuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ragettli, M.

    2007-02-15

    In this diploma thesis by Martin Ragettli a cost comparison assessment of the future production of biofuels is presented. The author states that biofuels can make a contribution to the reduction of the effects of fossil fuel depletion and regional and global environmental problems, as well as providing security of supply. The status of biofuels in the context of sustainability efforts and the use of renewable forms of energy are discussed as are the potential and costs of biomass-based energy supply. Various types of biomass for the production of biofuels are reviewed, as are production technologies. The global potential of biomass supplies is examined. The methodology applied and the system components examined are discussed and a regional approach is reviewed. Recommendations for further research are made.

  15. Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

  16. Potential and limitations of finite element modelling in assessing structural integrity of coralline algae under future global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melbourne, L. A.; Griffin, J.; Schmidt, D. N.; Rayfield, E. J.

    2015-10-01

    Coralline algae are important habitat formers found on all rocky shores. While the impact of future ocean acidification on the physiological performance of the species has been well studied, little research has focused on potential changes in structural integrity in response to climate change. A previous study using 2-D Finite Element Analysis (FEA) suggested increased vulnerability to fracture (by wave action or boring) in algae grown under high CO2 conditions. To assess how realistically 2-D simplified models represent structural performance, a series of increasingly biologically accurate 3-D FE models that represent different aspects of coralline algal growth were developed. Simplified geometric 3-D models of the genus Lithothamnion were compared to models created from computed tomography (CT) scan data of the same genus. The biologically accurate model and the simplified geometric model representing individual cells had similar average stresses and stress distributions, emphasising the importance of the cell walls in dissipating the stress throughout the structure. In contrast models without the accurate representation of the cell geometry resulted in larger stress and strain results. Our more complex 3-D model reiterated the potential of climate change to diminish the structural integrity of the organism. This suggests that under future environmental conditions the weakening of the coralline algal skeleton along with increased external pressures (wave and bioerosion) may negatively influence the ability for coralline algae to maintain a habitat able to sustain high levels of biodiversity.

  17. Envisioning Nano Release Dynamics in a Changing World: Using Dynamic Probabilistic Modeling to Assess Future Environmental Emissions of Engineered Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Tian Yin; Mitrano, Denise M; Bornhöft, Nikolaus A; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Nowack, Bernd

    2017-02-16

    The need for an environmental risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials (ENM) necessitates the knowledge about their environmental emissions. Material flow models (MFA) have been used to provide predicted environmental emissions but most current nano-MFA models consider neither the rapid development of ENM production nor the fact that a large proportion of ENM are entering an in-use stock and are released from products over time (i.e., have a lag phase). Here we use dynamic probabilistic material flow modeling to predict scenarios of the future flows of four ENM (nano-TiO2, nano-ZnO, nano-Ag and CNT) to environmental compartments and to quantify their amounts in (temporary) sinks such as the in-use stock and ("final") environmental sinks such as soil and sediment. In these scenarios, we estimate likely future amounts if the use and distribution of ENM in products continues along current trends (i.e., a business-as-usual approach) and predict the effect of hypothetical trends in the market development of nanomaterials, such as the emergence of a new widely used product or the ban on certain substances, on the flows of nanomaterials to the environment in years to come. We show that depending on the scenario and the product type affected, significant changes of the flows occur over time, driven by the growth of stocks and delayed release dynamics.

  18. [Genetically modified food (food derived from biotechnology): current and future trends in public acceptance and safety assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiura, Hiroshi; Imai, Hirohisa; Nakao, Hiroyuki; Tsukino, Hiromasa; Kuroda, Yoshiki; Katoh, Takahiko

    2002-11-01

    Current and future trends regarding genetically modified (GM) crops and food stuffs were reviewed, with a particular focus on public acceptance and safety assessment. While GM foods, foods derived from biotechnology, are popular with growers and producers, they are still a matter of some concern among consumers. In fact, our recent surveys showed that Japanese consumers had become uneasy about the potential health risks of genetically modified foods. Many Japanese consumers have only vague ideas about the actual health risks, and they appear to be making decisions simply by rejecting GM food because of non-informed doubts. Although the debate about GM foods has increased in the mass media and scientific journals, few articles concerning direct studies on the potential toxicity or adverse health effects of GM foods have appeared. The roles of relevant international regulatory bodies in ensuring that GM crops and food are safe are therefore have summarized. Finally, the current debate on use of GM crops in agriculture and future trends for development of GM foods with enriched nutrients, better functionality, and medicinal ingredients, which will be of direct benefit to the consumer, are covered.

  19. In Search of Future Earths: Assessing the possibility of finding Earth analogues in the later stages of their habitable lifetimes

    CERN Document Server

    O'Malley-James, J T; Raven, J A; Cockell, C S

    2015-01-01

    Earth will become uninhabitable within 2-3 Gyr as a result of the moving boundaries of the habitable zone caused by the increasing luminosity of the Sun. Predictions about the future of habitable conditions on Earth include a decline in species diversity and habitat extent, ocean loss and changes in the magnitudes of geochemical cycles. However, testing these predictions on the present-day Earth is difficult. The discovery of a planet that is a near analogue to the far future Earth could provide a means to test these predictions. Such a planet would need to have an Earth-like biosphere history, requiring it to have been in its system's habitable zone (HZ) for Gyr-long periods during the system's past, and to be approaching the inner-edge of the HZ at present. Here we assess the possibility of finding this very specific type of exoplanet and discuss the benefits of analysing older Earths in terms of improving our understanding of long-term geological and bio-geological processes. As an illustrative example, G ...

  20. Future Water Resources Assessment for West African River Basins Under Climate Change, Population Growth and Irrigation Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisser, D.; Ibrahim, B.; Proussevitch, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    West Africa economies rely on rain-fed agriculture and are extremely vulnerable to changes in precipitation. Results from the most recent generation of regional climate models suggest increases in rainy season rainfall variability (delayed rainy season onset, increased probability of dry spells, shorter rainy season duration) despite a moderate increase in rainy season total precipitation. These changes could potentially have detrimental effects on crop yield and food security. Additional pressures on water resources come from increased demand as a result of high population growth rates (~3% per year). Increased water storage and irrigation can help improve crop yields but future assessments of water resources are needed to prioritize irrigation development as an adaptation option. Increased water abstraction, in turn can impact water availability in downstream regions so that an integrated assessment of future water availability and demand is needed. We use a set of 15 RCM outputs from the CORDEX data archive to drive WBMplus, a hydrological model and simulate water availability under climate change. Based on estimated water constraints, we develop scenarios to expand irrigated areas (from the current 1% of all croplands) and calculate the effects on water scarcity, taking into account increased demand for domestic consumption and livestock water demand, at a spatial resolution of 10 km. Results around the 2050's indicate large potential to develop irrigated areas on ground and surface water and increase local water storage without increasing water scarcity downstream for many river basins in the region that could help alleviate pressures on the cropping systems and thereby increase food security.

  1. Telomere Length Assessment for Prediction of Organ Transplantation Outcome. Future or Failure: A Review of the Literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kłoda, Karolina; Domański, Leszek; Mierzecki, Artur

    2017-01-01

    Telomeres are located at each end of eukaryotic chromosomes. Their functional role is genomic stability maintenance. The protective role of telomeres depends on various factors, including number of nucleotides repeats, telomere-binding proteins, and telomerase activity. Organ transplantation is the preferred replacement therapy in the case of chronic kidney disease and the only possibility of sustaining recipients’ life in the case of advanced liver failure. While the prevalence of acute rejection is constantly decreasing, prevention of transplanted organ long-term function loss is still challenging. It has been demonstrated that post-transplant stressors accelerate aging of the allografts manifested through telomere shortening. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the importance of telomere length assessment for prediction of organ transplantation outcome. Literature review included the 10 most important studies regarding linkage between allograft function and telomere erosion, including 2 of our own reports. Telomere length assessment is useful to predict organ transplantation outcome. The importance of telomere length as a prediction marker depends on the analyzed material. To obtain reliable results, both graft cells (donor material) and lymphocytes (recipient material) should be examined. In the case of kidney transplantation, assessment of telomere length in the early post-transplant period allows prediction of the long-term function of the transplanted organ. To increase the accuracy of transplantation outcome prediction, telomere length assessment should be combined with evaluation of other aging biomarkers, like CDKN2A (p16). Large-scale clinical studies regarding telomere length measurement, including genome wide association analysis introducing relevant genetic factors, are needed for the future. PMID:28076340

  2. Assessment of Government Quality Indicators (AGQI) in Afghanistan: Initial Assessment in Three Afghan Cities Using a Standardized Assessment Tool and Potential for Application of AGQI in Future Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-01

    type ( Bryman , 1984; Sechrist and Sidana, 1995; Hentschel, 1998) and with interview procedures used to assess components of governance in other...nature but the design includes information that would also allow some degree of qualitative interpretation ( Bryman , 1984; Sechrist and Sidana, 1995...Hentschel, 1998). The process for collecting the data (described later) adds a significant qualitative component ( Bryman , 1984; Sechrist and Sidana

  3. Assessing Land Degradation and Desertification Using Vegetation Index Data: Current Frameworks and Future Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas P. Higginbottom

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Land degradation and desertification has been ranked as a major environmental and social issue for the coming decades. Thus, the observation and early detection of degradation is a primary objective for a number of scientific and policy organisations, with remote sensing methods being a candidate choice for the development of monitoring systems. This paper reviews the statistical and ecological frameworks of assessing land degradation and desertification using vegetation index data. The development of multi-temporal analysis as a desertification assessment technique is reviewed, with a focus on how current practice has been shaped by controversy and dispute within the literature. The statistical techniques commonly employed are examined from both a statistical as well as ecological point of view, and recommendations are made for future research directions. The scientific requirements for degradation and desertification monitoring systems identified here are: (I the validation of methodologies in a robust and comparable manner; and (II the detection of degradation at minor intensities and magnitudes. It is also established that the multi-temporal analysis of vegetation index data can provide a sophisticated measure of ecosystem health and variation, and that, over the last 30 years, considerable progress has been made in the respective research.

  4. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mezősi Gábor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 compared to the reference period (1961–1990 in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5–6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly ‘pastures’, ‘complex cultivation patterns’, and ‘land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation’ are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  5. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  6. On exploratory factor analysis: a review of recent evidence, an assessment of current practice, and recommendations for future use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

    2014-03-01

    Exploratory factor analysis (hereafter, factor analysis) is a complex statistical method that is integral to many fields of research. Using factor analysis requires researchers to make several decisions, each of which affects the solutions generated. In this paper, we focus on five major decisions that are made in conducting factor analysis: (i) establishing how large the sample needs to be, (ii) choosing between factor analysis and principal components analysis, (iii) determining the number of factors to retain, (iv) selecting a method of data extraction, and (v) deciding upon the methods of factor rotation. The purpose of this paper is threefold: (i) to review the literature with respect to these five decisions, (ii) to assess current practices in nursing research, and (iii) to offer recommendations for future use. The literature reviews illustrate that factor analysis remains a dynamic field of study, with recent research having practical implications for those who use this statistical method. The assessment was conducted on 54 factor analysis (and principal components analysis) solutions presented in the results sections of 28 papers published in the 2012 volumes of the 10 highest ranked nursing journals, based on their 5-year impact factors. The main findings from the assessment were that researchers commonly used (a) participants-to-items ratios for determining sample sizes (used for 43% of solutions), (b) principal components analysis (61%) rather than factor analysis (39%), (c) the eigenvalues greater than one rule and screen tests to decide upon the numbers of factors/components to retain (61% and 46%, respectively), (d) principal components analysis and unweighted least squares as methods of data extraction (61% and 19%, respectively), and (e) the Varimax method of rotation (44%). In general, well-established, but out-dated, heuristics and practices informed decision making with respect to the performance of factor analysis in nursing studies. Based on

  7. Risk assessment analysis of the future technical unit dedicated to the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R

    2011-03-01

    The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  8. Near-term U.S. military and commercial launch systems. A post cold war assessment of future needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehair, C. L.; Wolfe, M. G.

    In late 1992, the Vice President's Space Policy Advisory Board made a number of major space policy recommendations that impact the United States launch industry. These recommendations included greater cooperation and synergism and less duplication between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Defense (DOD); development of a new, more efficient space launch capability to replace the aging and operationally expensive current launch systems that are finding it increasingly difficult to compete in the global commercial market place; transition to more cost-effective ways of meeting both unmanned and manned space transportation needs in the 21st century; prudent relaxation of security regulations to foster increased world trade; sharing of capabilities with allies and friendly states; and expansion of efforts to forge partnerships with other nations in carefully selected areas. The recommendations were intended to aid the incoming administration and the new president in making funding decisions for near-term future launch systems. In the light of these recommendations, this paper examines the limitations of the current U.S. expendable launch fleet; the performance, operability, reliability, and cost-effectiveness enhancement options available; the availability of new technologies and design changes that can be applied to current systems; the requirements that would have to be met to make U.S. systems more competitive in the global market place; and the advisability of replacing or augmenting current systems with a new "Spacelift" vehicle or family of vehicles. The Spacelift concept is described and assessed against projected domestic and global mission requirements, including possible manned missions. Expendable options are compared with current launch systems and with near-term future systems such as Ariane 5. Alternative design approaches, such as partially reusable concepts; fully reusable systems; and the possibility of using

  9. Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    waves to the water column. The results will be used to gain insight into possible morphological changes given several sea level scenarios coupled with an intense tropical cyclone. References Donoghue, J. (2011). "Sea Level History of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the near Future." Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. IPCC (2007). "The Physical Sceince Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." Climate Change 2007, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Avery, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, eds., Cambridge Univesity Press, Cambridge. Resio, D. T. (2007). "White Paper on Estimating Hurricane Inundation Probabilities." U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 125. Trenberth, K. (2005). "Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming." Science, 308(5729), 1753-1754. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment." Science, 309(5742), 1844-1846.

  10. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Neumann

    Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

  11. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  12. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  13. Assessing Future Changes in Climate Extremes using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H.

    2015-12-01

    order to provide consistent and coherent assessments of future changes of climate extremes.

  14. Modeling and assessment of future IGCC plant concepts with CO{sub 2} capture; Simulation und Bewertung zukuenftiger IGCC-Kraftwerkskonzepte mit CO{sub 2}-Abtrennung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunze, Christian A.

    2012-07-13

    The thesis focuses on the assessment of efficiency potential of future IGCC plants with CO{sub 2} capture. Starting point is a comprehensive analysis (thermodynamic, economic and exergy) of a state of the art IGCC. Additionally, five future IGCC concepts are proposed and evaluated for their efficiency potential in the mid- and long-term. The concepts showed significantly higher efficiencies up to approximately 60% and enable an almost CO{sub 2}-free operation.

  15. Assessing the impacts of changing precipitation and temperature extremes on the current and future ecohydrology of grassland ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.; Ocheltree, T.

    2012-12-01

    Extreme weather events have profound impacts on water and carbon cycling. However, events of similar magnitude may have very different impacts depending upon the timing of the event in the phenological cycle. We assess these impacts of extreme daily weather events including precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature using data collected from the Konza Prairie Long Term Ecological Research site in the central U.S. We utilize the long term weather and biomass collection data at the LTER site to examine the historical variability of extreme events and the impacts on annual carbon dynamics. Timescales of interactions between daily weather and fluxes are quantified through a multiscale information theoretic approach. In addition, we quantify the impacts of the timing and magnitude of extreme events through a Critical Climate Period (CCP) analysis. Results indicate a strong sensitivity to spring precipitation and summer temperature. Using six years of eddy covariance data, we can isolate more of the biophysical mechanisms governing the responses to extreme weather events. Of particular interest is the heat wave of July, 2011, where daily maximum temperatures were over 38 C for 24 consecutive days and resulted in drastically reduced above ground carbon allocation than in previous years. In addition, we employ the Agro-BGC model to assess the biophysical processes responsible for determining the response of water and carbon dynamics to extreme weather events. This is done by employing a stochastic weather generator with prescribed changes in annual precipitation and temperature conistent with GCM projections. Developing a more thorough understanding of extreme events and the differential responses due to the timing and magnitude of the events will potentially assist in the mitigation of future climate change.

  16. Classification and plausibility assessment of historical and future weather and climate anomalies (application for the Wupper River Basin, Germany)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibel, Marc; Lorza, Paula

    2017-04-01

    In the frame of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to onGOing water management), the effects of climate change scenarios on the water cycle in the Wupper River Basin are being currently investigated. The Wupper catchment area is prone to flash floods in summer, winter floods as well as dry periods. The occurrence of these events has increased in the last decades together with the shifting of the rainy season. BINGO approach focuses on, among others: a) identifying past weather extremes and anomalies due to climate change; and b) gaining deeper knowledge on the effects of soil moisture on water balance and runoff generation processes for reservoir management and enhancement of Wupper Association's flood early warning system. Historical hydro-meteorological extreme events are assessed based on daily records of long-term precipitation time series (ca. 80 years) as well as precipitation time series from downscaled reanalysis products (i.e., ERA-Interim). The determination of representative indices, e.g., Weather Extremity Index (WEI) or the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) serves to compensate for uncertainties in spatial and temporal recording of the parameters of individual processes. The WEI establishes the highest rainfall amount per station and its rarity, the extent of the affected area, and the event duration. For the evaluation of historical climate signals in the reference period and for the assessment of future scenarios, deviation of the mean monthly observed precipitation from the long-term mean value is determined as a first approach for several stations along the catchment area for individual months and different time scales. As a second approach, different indices such as SPI and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are calculated for different time scales in order to determine whether they were anomalously dry or wet. SPEI is more suitable for climate change analysis than SPI since the former considers not

  17. Modeling aeolian transport in response to succession, disturbance and future climate: Dynamic long-term risk assessment for contaminant redistribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breshears, D.D.; Kirchner, T.B.; Whicker, J.J.; Field, J.P.; Allen, C.D.

    2012-01-01

    Aeolian sediment transport is a fundamental process redistributing sediment, nutrients, and contaminants in dryland ecosystems. Over time frames of centuries or longer, horizontal sediment fluxes and associated rates of contaminant transport are likely to be influenced by succession, disturbances, and changes in climate, yet models of horizontal sediment transport that account for these fundamental factors are lacking, precluding in large part accurate assessment of human health risks associated with persistent soil-bound contaminants. We present a simple model based on empirical measurements of horizontal sediment transport (predominantly saltation) to predict potential contaminant transport rates for recently disturbed sites such as a landfill cover. Omnidirectional transport is estimated within vegetation that changes using a simple Markov model that simulates successional trajectory and considers three types of short-term disturbances (surface fire, crown fire, and drought-induced plant mortality) under current and projected climates. The model results highlight that movement of contaminated soil is sensitive to vegetation dynamics and increases substantially (e.g., > fivefold) when disturbance and/or future climate are considered. The time-dependent responses in horizontal sediment fluxes and associated contaminant fluxes were sensitive to variability in the timing of disturbance, with longer intervals between disturbance allowing woody plants to become dominant and crown fire and drought abruptly reducing woody plant cover. Our results, which have direct implications for contaminant transport and landfill management in the specific context of our assessment, also have general relevance because they highlight the need to more fully account for vegetation dynamics, disturbance, and changing climate in aeolian process studies. ?? 2011.

  18. Accuracy of a Low-Cost Novel Computer-Vision Dynamic Movement Assessment: Potential Limitations and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGroarty, M.; Giblin, S.; Meldrum, D.; Wetterling, F.

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to perform a preliminary validation of a low cost markerless motion capture system (CAPTURE) against an industry gold standard (Vicon). Measurements of knee valgus and flexion during the performance of a countermovement jump (CMJ) between CAPTURE and Vicon were compared. After correction algorithms were applied to the raw CAPTURE data acceptable levels of accuracy and precision were achieved. The knee flexion angle measured for three trials using Capture deviated by -3.8° ± 3° (left) and 1.7° ± 2.8° (right) compared to Vicon. The findings suggest that low-cost markerless motion capture has potential to provide an objective method for assessing lower limb jump and landing mechanics in an applied sports setting. Furthermore, the outcome of the study warrants the need for future research to examine more fully the potential implications of the use of low-cost markerless motion capture in the evaluation of dynamic movement for injury prevention.

  19. Unlocking the Treasures of the Ocean: Current Assessment and Future Perspectives of Seafloor Resources (C.F Gauss Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jegen, Marion

    2016-04-01

    Oceans cover 70% of the Earth's surface, and there is reason to believe that the wealth of mineral and carbon resources on the seafloor is similar to deposits on land. While off-shore energy resources such as oil and gas are nowadays regarded as conventional, energy resources in form of methane hydrates and seafloor mineral deposits are yet unconventional and at best marginally economic. However, taking into account global population growth, geopolitics and technological development (both in terms of increasing industrialization and possibility to explore and mine seafloor resources), these resources might play a more fundamental role in the future. Resource assessment and understanding of the geological formation process of resources are topics in marine geosciences with broad relevance to society. The lecture presents an overview of the geophysical exploration of the seafloor and its resource potential. Starting from the link of physical parameter anomalies associated with resources, I will explore marine technological developments on how to sense them remotely from the seafloor. Also the question will be addressed of how well we can actually quantify the amount of resources from geophysical data. The process will be illustrated based on theoretical work as well as case studies from around the world.

  20. Psychiatric and medical disorders in the after math of the uttarakhand disaster: Assessment, approach, and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Kumar Channaveerachari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To present the descriptive data on the frequency of medical and psychiatric morbidity and also to discuss various pertinent issues relevant to the disaster management, the future challenges and psychosocial needs of the 2013 floods in Uttarakhand, India. Materials and Methods: Observation was undertaken by the disaster management team of National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences in the worst affected four districts of Uttarakhand. Qualified psychiatrists diagnosed the patients using the International Classification of Diseases-10 criteria. Data were collected by direct observation, interview of the survivors, group sessions, individual key-informant interview, individual session, and group interventions. Results: Patients with physical health problems formed the majority of treatment seekers (39.6% in this report. Only about 2% had disaster induced psychiatric diagnoses. As was expected, minor mental disorders in the form of depressive disorders and anxiety disorders formed majority of the psychiatric morbidity. Substance use disorders appear to be very highly prevalent in the community; however, we were not able to assess the morbidity systematically. Conclusions: The mental health infrastructure and manpower is abysmally inadequate. There is an urgent need to implement the National Mental Health Program to increase the mental health infrastructure and services in the four major disaster-affected districts.

  1. Psychiatric and medical disorders in the after math of the uttarakhand disaster: assessment, approach, and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Channaveerachari, Naveen Kumar; Raj, Aneel; Joshi, Suvarna; Paramita, Prajna; Somanathan, Revathi; Chandran, Dhanya; Kasi, Sekar; Bangalore, N Roopesh; Math, Suresh Bada

    2015-01-01

    To present the descriptive data on the frequency of medical and psychiatric morbidity and also to discuss various pertinent issues relevant to the disaster management, the future challenges and psychosocial needs of the 2013 floods in Uttarakhand, India. Observation was undertaken by the disaster management team of National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences in the worst affected four districts of Uttarakhand. Qualified psychiatrists diagnosed the patients using the International Classification of Diseases-10 criteria. Data were collected by direct observation, interview of the survivors, group sessions, individual key-informant interview, individual session, and group interventions. Patients with physical health problems formed the majority of treatment seekers (39.6%) in this report. Only about 2% had disaster induced psychiatric diagnoses. As was expected, minor mental disorders in the form of depressive disorders and anxiety disorders formed majority of the psychiatric morbidity. Substance use disorders appear to be very highly prevalent in the community; however, we were not able to assess the morbidity systematically. The mental health infrastructure and manpower is abysmally inadequate. There is an urgent need to implement the National Mental Health Program to increase the mental health infrastructure and services in the four major disaster-affected districts.

  2. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Hansen

    Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  3. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; hide

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  4. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  5. Glaciers and small ice caps in the macro-scale hydrological cycle - an assessment of present conditions and future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, Richard; Hock, Regine; Prusevich, Alexander; Bliss, Andrew; Radic, Valentina; Glidden, Stanley; Grogan, Danielle; Frolking, Steve

    2014-05-01

    Glacier and small ice cap melt water contributions to the global hydrologic cycle are an important component of human water supply and for sea level rise. This melt water is used in many arid and semi-arid parts of the world for direct human consumption as well as indirect consumption by irrigation for crops, serving as frozen reservoirs of water that supplement runoff during warm and dry periods of summer when it is needed the most. Additionally, this melt water reaching the oceans represents a direct input to sea level rise and therefore accurate estimates of this contribution have profound economic and geopolitical implications. It has been demonstrated that, on the scale of glacierized river catchments, land surface hydrological models can successfully simulate glacier contribution to streamflow. However, at global scales, the implementation of glacier melt in hydrological models has been rudimentary or non-existent. In this study, a global glacier mass balance model is coupled with the University of New Hampshire Water Balance/Transport Model (WBM) to assess recent and projected future glacier contributions to the hydrological cycle over the global land surface (excluding the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica). For instance, results of WBM simulations indicate that seasonal glacier melt water in many arid climate watersheds comprises 40 % or more of their discharge. Implicitly coupled glacier and WBM models compute monthly glacier mass changes and resulting runoff at the glacier terminus for each individual glacier from the globally complete Randolph Glacier Inventory including over 200 000 glaciers. The time series of glacier runoff is aggregated over each hydrological modeling unit and delivered to the hydrological model for routing downstream and mixing with non-glacial contribution of runoff to each drainage basin outlet. WBM tracks and uses glacial and non-glacial components of the in-stream water for filling reservoirs, transfers of water between

  6. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

  7. Hazard Assessment for POPOCATÉPETL Volcano Using Hasset: a Probability Event Tree Tool to Evaluate Future Eruptive Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrés, D.; Reyes Pimentel, T. A.; Espinasa-Pereña, R.; Nieto, A.; Sobradelo, R.; Flores, X.; González Huesca, A. E.; Ramirez, A.

    2013-05-01

    -eruptive crisis of April-May 2012, in order to identify the most probable processes in which this unrest could have developed and to contribute to the diagnosis task. In this research, we propose a comparison between the processes identified in this preliminary volcanic event tree and another elaborated using a Hazard Assessment Event Tree probability tool (HASSET), built on a bayesian event tree structure, using mainly the information of the known eruptive history of Popocatépetl. The HASSET method is based on Bayesian Inference and is used to assess volcanic hazard of future eruptive scenarios, by evaluating the most relevant sources of uncertainty that play a role in estimating the future probability of occurrence of a specific volcanic event. The final goal is to find the most useful tools to make the diagnosis and prognosis of the Popocatépetl volcanic activity, integrating the known eruptive history of the volcano, the experience of the scientific committee and the information provided by the monitoring systems, in an interactive and user-friendly way.

  8. Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium-sized watershed of Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Nunes, João Pedro; Monteiro, António T.; Hein, Lars; Honrado, João Pradinho

    2016-01-01

    The separated and combined effects of land-cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between m

  9. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faber, I.R.; Elferink-Gemser, M.T.; Faber, N.R.; Oosterveld, F.G.; Nijhuis, M.W.

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of

  10. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

  11. How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    2015-01-01

    future climate conditions. The LCA results, obtained using mainly primary data from phytotron experiments mimicking a future Danish climate, emphasized that adaptation strategies should prioritize the development of resilient and stable cultivars, i.e. robust to the expected extremes of the future....... In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts...... climate and offering a reasonable yield under different climatic conditions....

  12. Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willis, Stephen; Hole, Dave; Collingham, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird...... Area (IBA) network is a series of sites designed to conserve avian diversity in the face of current threats from factors such as habitat loss and fragmentation. However, in common with other networks, the IBA network is based on the assumption that the climate will remain unchanged in the future...... technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios...

  13. Future directions in psychological assessment: combining evidence-based medicine innovations with psychology's historical strengths to enhance utility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngstrom, Eric A

    2013-01-01

    Assessment has been a historical strength of psychology, with sophisticated traditions of measurement, psychometrics, and theoretical underpinnings. However, training, reimbursement, and utilization of psychological assessment have been eroded in many settings. Evidence-based medicine (EBM) offers a different perspective on evaluation that complements traditional strengths of psychological assessment. EBM ties assessment directly to clinical decision making about the individual, uses simplified Bayesian methods explicitly to integrate assessment data, and solicits patient preferences as part of the decision-making process. Combining the EBM perspective with psychological assessment creates a hybrid approach that is more client centered, and it defines a set of applied research topics that are highly clinically relevant. This article offers a sequence of a dozen facets of the revised assessment process, along with examples of corollary research studies. An eclectic integration of EBM and evidence-based assessment generates a powerful hybrid that is likely to have broad applicability within clinical psychology and enhance the utility of psychological assessments.

  14. Understanding Clinicians' Use of Cues When Assessing the Future Risk of Violence: A Clinical Judgement Analysis in the Psychiatric Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Barbara; Rakow, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Research is sparse on how clinicians' judgement informs their violence risk assessments. Yet, determining preferences for which risk factors are used, and how they are weighted and combined, is important to understanding such assessments. This study investigated clinicians' use of static and dynamic cues when assessing risk in individual patients and for dynamic cues considered in the recent and distant past. Clinicians provided three violence risk assessments for 41 separate hypothetical cases of hospitalized patients, each defined by eight cues (e.g., psychopathy and past violence severity/frequency). A clinical judgement analysis, using regression analysis of judgements for multiple cases, created linear models reflecting the major influences on each individual clinician's judgement. Risk assessments could be successfully predicted by between one and four cues, and there was close agreement between different clinicians' models regarding which cues were relevant for a given assessment. However, which cues were used varied between assessments: history of recent violence predicted assessments of in-hospital risk, whereas violence in the distant past predicted the assessed risk in the community. Crucially, several factors included in actuarial/structured risk assessment tools had little influence on clinicians' assessments. Our findings point to the adaptivity in clinicians' violence risk assessments, with a preference for relying on information consistent with the setting for which the assessment applies. The implication is that clinicians are open to using different structured assessment tools for different kinds of risk assessment, although they may seek greater flexibility in their assessments than some structured risk assessment tools afford (e.g., discounting static risk factors). Across three separate violence risk assessments, clinicians' risk assessments were more strongly influenced by dynamic cues that can vary over time (e.g., level of violence) than by

  15. Assessment of the Anticipated Environmental Footprint of Future Nuclear Energy Systems. Evidence of the Beneficial Effect of Extensive Recycling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jérôme Serp

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this early 21st century, our societies have to face a tremendous and increasing energy need while mitigating the global climate change and preserving the environment. Addressing this challenge requires an energy transition from the current fossil energy-based system to a carbon-free energy production system, based on a relevant energy mix combining renewables and nuclear energy. However, such an energy transition will only occur if it is accepted by the population. Powerful and reliable tools, such as life cycle assessments (LCA, aiming at assessing the respective merits of the different energy mix for most of the environmental impact indicators are therefore mandatory for supporting a risk-informed decision-process at the societal level. Before studying the deployment of a given energy mix, a prerequisite is to perform LCAs on each of the components of the mix. This paper addresses two potential nuclear energy components: a nuclear fuel cycle based on the Generation III European Pressurized Reactors (EPR and a nuclear fuel cycle based on the Generation IV Sodium Fast Reactors (SFR. The basis of this study relies on the previous work done on the current French nuclear fuel cycle using the bespoke NELCAS tool specifically developed for studying nuclear fuel cycle environmental impacts. Our study highlights that the EPR already brings a limited improvement to the current fuel cycle thanks to a higher efficiency of the energy transformation and a higher burn-up of the nuclear fuel (−20% on most of the chosen indicators whereas the introduction of the GEN IV fast reactors will bring a significant breakthrough by suppressing the current front-end of the fuel cycle thanks to the use of depleted uranium instead of natural enriched uranium (this leads to a decrease of the impact from 17% on water consumption and withdrawal and up to 96% on SOx emissions. The specific case of the radioactive waste is also studied, showing that only the partitioning

  16. Music Assessment and the Nation's Report Card: MENC's Response to the 2008 NAEP and Recommendations for Future NAEP in Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuler, Scott C.

    2009-01-01

    The National Assessment Governing Board (NAGB) recently published the results of the 2008 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) in Music, the fourth in a series of NAEP music assessments that began in 1971. It is important that NAEP, known as "The Nation's Report Card," measures the music achievement of America's students, both…

  17. Music Assessment and the Nation's Report Card: MENC's Response to the 2008 NAEP and Recommendations for Future NAEP in Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuler, Scott C.

    2009-01-01

    The National Assessment Governing Board (NAGB) recently published the results of the 2008 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) in Music, the fourth in a series of NAEP music assessments that began in 1971. It is important that NAEP, known as "The Nation's Report Card," measures the music achievement of America's students, both…

  18. The Issues and Methodologies in Sustainability Assessment Tools for Higher Education Institutions: A Review of Recent Trends and Future Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarime, Masaru; Tanaka, Yuko

    2012-01-01

    Assessment tools influence incentives to higher education institutions by encouraging them to move towards sustainability. A review of 16 sustainability assessment tools was conducted to examine the recent trends in the issues and methodologies addressed in assessment tools quantitatively and qualitatively. The characteristics of the current…

  19. The Issues and Methodologies in Sustainability Assessment Tools for Higher Education Institutions: A Review of Recent Trends and Future Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarime, Masaru; Tanaka, Yuko

    2012-01-01

    Assessment tools influence incentives to higher education institutions by encouraging them to move towards sustainability. A review of 16 sustainability assessment tools was conducted to examine the recent trends in the issues and methodologies addressed in assessment tools quantitatively and qualitatively. The characteristics of the current…

  20. Assessing future drought impacts on yields based on historical irrigation reaction to drought for four major crops in Kansas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tianyi; Lin, Xiaomao

    2016-04-15

    Evaluation of how historical irrigation reactions can adapt to future drought is indispensable to irrigation policy, however, such reactions are poorly quantified. In this paper, county-level irrigation data for maize, soybean, grain sorghum, and wheat crops in Kansas were compiled. Statistical models were developed to quantify changes of irrigation and yields in response to drought for each crop. These were then used to evaluate the ability of current irrigation to cope with future drought impacts on each crop based on an ensemble Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) prediction under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 scenario. Results indicate that irrigation in response to drought varies by crop; approximately 10 to 13% additional irrigation was applied when PDSI was reduced by one unit for maize, soybean, and grain sorghum. However, the irrigation reaction for wheat exhibits a large uncertainty, indicating a weaker irrigation reaction. Analysis of future climate conditions indicates that maize, soybean, and grain sorghum yields would decrease 2.2-12.4% at the state level despite additional irrigation application induced by drought (which was expected to increase 5.1-19.0%), suggesting that future drought will exceed the range that historical irrigation reactions can adapt to. In contrast, a lower reduction (-0.99 to -0.63%) was estimated for wheat yields because wetter climate was projected in the central section of the study area. Expanding wheat areas may be helpful in avoiding future drought risks for Kansas agriculture. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene R Faber

    Full Text Available Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years. Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05. Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%. Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%. This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  2. From Site Data to Safety Assessment: Analysis of Present and Future Hydrological Conditions at a Coastal Site in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, Sten [HydroResearch AB, Taeby (Sweden)], E-mail: sten.berglund@hydroresearch.se; Bosson, Emma [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB), Stockholm (Sweden); Sassner, Mona [DHI Sverige AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    This paper presents an analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at the Forsmark site in Sweden, which has been proposed as the site for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Forsmark is a coastal site that changes in response to shoreline displacement. In the considered time frame (until year 10 000 ad), the hydrological system will be affected by landscape succession associated with shoreline displacement and changes in vegetation, regolith stratigraphy, and climate. Based on extensive site investigations and modeling of present hydrological conditions, the effects of different processes on future site hydrology are quantified. As expected, shoreline displacement has a strong effect on local hydrology (e.g., groundwater flow) in areas that change from sea to land. The comparison between present and future land areas emphasizes the importance of climate variables relative to other factors for main hydrological features such as water balances.

  3. A prospective assessment of racial/ethnic differences in future mammography behavior among women who had early mammography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapp, Julie M.; Walker, Rod; Haneuse, Sebastien; Yankaskas, Bonnie C.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND 29% of women aged 30-39 report having had a mammogram though sensitivity and specificity are low. We investigate racial/ethnic differences in future mammography behavior among women who had a baseline screening mammogram prior to age 40. METHODS Using 1994-2008 data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC), we identified 29,390 women ages 35-39 with a baseline screening mammogram. We followed this cohort for two outcomes: (1) future BCSC mammography between ages 40-45; and (2) among those, delay in screening mammography until ages 43-45 compared to 40-42. Using adjusted log-linear models, we estimated the relative risk (RR) of these outcomes by race/ethnicity, while also considering the impact of false positive/true negative (FP/TN) baseline mammography results on these outcomes. RESULTS Relative to non-Hispanic white women, Hispanic women had an increased risk of no future BCSC mammography (RR: 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13-1.30); Asian women had a decreased risk (RR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.61-0.74). Women with a FP, compared to TN, had a decreased risk of no future BCSC mammography (RR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.85-0.95). Among those with future BCSC screening mammography, African American women were more likely to delay the timing (RR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.09-1.45). The interaction between race/ethnicity and FP/TN baseline results was not significant. CONCLUSIONS Race/ethnicity is differentially associated with future BCSC mammography and the timing of screening mammography after age 40. IMPACT These findings introduce the need for research that examines disparities in lifetime mammography use patterns from the initiation of mammography screening. PMID:21242330

  4. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  5. Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo;

    2015-01-01

    leaching and change in crop yield). The main input data originate from experiments, where spring barley cultivars were cultivated in a climate phytotron under controlled and manipulated treatments. Effects of changed climate on both crop productivity and crop quality were represented, as well as impacts......The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding...... and including earlier sowing and cultivar selection as measures of adaptation to a changed climate. A baseline scenario describing the current spring barley cultivation in Denmark was defined, and the expected main deviations were identified (differences in pesticide treatment index, modifications in nitrate...

  6. A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    2012-01-01

    This paper performs a quantitative impact assessment of the climate change on typhoon wind risk, focusing on residential buildings in Japan. The risk is assessed based on (1) the typhoon event set extracted from the simulation by the super-high resolution atmospheric general circulation model dev...... of the building portfolio remains unchanged. Based on these results, the assumptions and inputs to the assessment are critically reviewed. Thereby, the needs of further research efforts toward more credible and comprehensive assessment are addressed.......This paper performs a quantitative impact assessment of the climate change on typhoon wind risk, focusing on residential buildings in Japan. The risk is assessed based on (1) the typhoon event set extracted from the simulation by the super-high resolution atmospheric general circulation model...

  7. How (Un)Certain Is the Future in Forestry? A Comparative Assessment of Uncertainty in the Forest and Agricultural Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogstra, M.A.; Schanz, H.

    2008-01-01

    Several authors have stated that, because of the long time horizons underlying forestry processes, the forest sector encounters far more uncertainty than is experienced by any other industrial or agricultural production processes, especially regarding the long future. To gain more insight into the e

  8. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologi...

  9. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologi...

  10. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  11. Effectiveness of Installation Aeromedical Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-13

    60-Minutes Overlay .......................36 Figure 5. Trauma Centers by Ground Ambulance Access in 60-Minutes Overlay ........37 Figure 6. Military...Medical, Dental , and Veterinary Care, specified, “the Medical Evacuation System consists of ground and air medical evacuation platforms which work...Military Medical Center, formerly the separate entities of Brooke Army Medical Center and Wilford Hall Air Force Medical Center. The medical overlays

  12. Lipid Lowering Agents Aeromedical Concerns

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-06-01

    elevated SGOT and SGPT Simvastatin and lovastatin are administered as levels (> 3 times upper limit of normal) were lactones, and conversion to the...Among range of cholesterol, lower values are associated patients enrolled in the primary prevention trial with fewer cardiovascular events

  13. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

  14. Changes in the impact assessment family 2003-2014 : Implications for considering achievements, gaps and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Francis

    2015-01-01

    Over 150 forms of impact assessment can be identified using Google searches, with several new forms appearing since 2003. Since then, the popularity of the various members of the impact assessment family has changed, partly in response to legislative and regulatory changes, and general trends in

  15. Standards-Based Classroom Assessments of English Proficiency: A Review of Issues, Current Developments, and Future Directions for Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llosa, Lorena

    2011-01-01

    With the United States' adoption of a standards-based approach to education, most attention has focused on the large-scale, high-stakes assessments intended to measure students' mastery of standards for accountability purposes. Less attention has been paid to the role of standards-based assessments in the classroom. The purpose of this paper is to…

  16. Changes in the impact assessment family 2003-2014 : Implications for considering achievements, gaps and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Francis

    2015-01-01

    Over 150 forms of impact assessment can be identified using Google searches, with several new forms appearing since 2003. Since then, the popularity of the various members of the impact assessment family has changed, partly in response to legislative and regulatory changes, and general trends in soc

  17. Assessment of Bilingual/Multilingual Pre-K-Grade 12 Students: A Critical Discussion of Past, Present, and Future Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Virginia

    2012-01-01

    This article examines major unresolved challenges in the assessment of pre-K-grade 12 multilingual students in US public schools. The ethnic educator approach advocates for a change of paradigms in assessment, one that abandons the medical model to incorporate socio-constructivist theoretical perspectives and pluralistic and progressive social…

  18. Changes in the impact assessment family 2003-2014 : Implications for considering achievements, gaps and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Francis

    2015-01-01

    Over 150 forms of impact assessment can be identified using Google searches, with several new forms appearing since 2003. Since then, the popularity of the various members of the impact assessment family has changed, partly in response to legislative and regulatory changes, and general trends in soc

  19. Reduction of uncertainty associated with future changes in Indian summer monsoon projected by climate models and assessment of monsoon teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Kavirajan; Surendran, Sajani; Kitoh, Akio; Varghese, Stella Jes

    2016-05-01

    Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled global climate model (CGCM) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) with substantial inter-model spread. Robust signals of projected changes are derived based on objective criteria and the physically consistent simulations with the highest reliability suggest future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall. The role of equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans on the projected changes in monsoon rainfall is investigated. The results of coupled model projections are also compared with the corresponding projections from high resolution AGCM time-slice, multi-physics and multi-forcing ensemble experiments.

  20. Scenario-based assessment of future food security%基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴文斌; 唐华俊; 杨鹏; 游良志; 周清波; 陈仲新; 柴崎亮介

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that, the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability, which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators,the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.

  1. Problem Assessment for a Formal Decision on the Future of the 244-S Double Contained Receiver Tank (DCRT)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SEDERBURG, J.P.

    2000-04-03

    This document describes the background, concerns, and issues associated with continued use of the 244-S DCRT. A problem statement is defined such that management may in the future make a decision about the preferred path forward on this DCRT. Influences and potential answers are outlined and presented such that costs, waste volume projections, projects (such as W-314), and other facilities (such as 222-S and PFP) are accurately represented.

  2. Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richards Shane A

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was explored using two markedly different modelling approaches. First, a simple temperature-dependent, process-based model of malaria growth transmitted by Anopheles atroparvus, the historical vector of malaria in the UK. Second, a statistical model using logistic-regression was used to predict historical malaria incidence between 1917 and 1918 in the UK, based on environmental and demographic data. Using findings from these models and saltmarsh distributions, future risk maps for malaria in the UK were produced based on UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. Results The process-based model of climate suitability showed good correspondence with historical records of malaria cases. An analysis of the statistical models showed that mean temperature of the warmest month of the year was the major factor explaining the distribution of malaria, further supporting the use of the temperature-driven processed-based model. The risk maps indicate that large areas of central and southern England could support malaria transmission today and could increase in extent in the future. Confidence in these predictions is increased by the concordance between the processed-based and statistical models. Conclusion Although the future climate in the UK is favourable for the transmission of vivax malaria, the future risk of locally transmitted malaria is considered low because of low vector biting rates and the low probability of vectors feeding on a malaria-infected person.

  3. Comparative assessment for future prediction of urban water environment using WEAP model: A case study of Kathmandu, Manila and Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Yoshifumi, Masago; Ammar, Rafieiemam; Mishra, Binaya; Fukushi, Ken

    2017-04-01

    Uncontrolled release of pollutants, increasing extreme weather condition, rapid urbanization and poor governance posing a serious threat to sustainable water resource management in developing urban spaces. Considering half of the world's mega-cities are in the Asia and the Pacific with 1.7 billion people do not access to improved water and sanitation, water security through its proper management is both an increasing concern and an imperative critical need. This research work strives to give a brief glimpse about predicted future water environment in Bagmati, Pasig and Ciliwung rivers from three different cities viz. Manila, Kathmandu and Jakarta respectively. Hydrological model used here to foresee the collective impacts of rapid population growth because of urbanization as well as climate change on unmet demand and water quality in near future time by 2030. All three rivers are major source of water for different usage viz. domestic, industrial, agriculture and recreation but uncontrolled withdrawal and sewerage disposal causing deterioration of water environment in recent past. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was used to model river water quality pollution future scenarios using four indicator species i.e. Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Nitrate (NO3). Result for simulated water quality as well as unmet demand for year 2030 when compared with that of reference year clearly indicates that not only water quality deteriorates but also unmet demands is increasing in future course of time. This also suggests that current initiatives and policies for water resource management are not sufficient enough and hence immediate and inclusive action through transdisciplinary research.

  4. Assessing Economic Modulation of Future Critical Materials Use: The Case of Automotive-Related Platinum Group Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jingshu; Everson, Mark P; Wallington, Timothy J; Field, Frank R; Roth, Richard; Kirchain, Randolph E

    2016-07-19

    Platinum-group metals (PGMs) are technological and economic enablers of many industrial processes. This important role, coupled with their limited geographic availability, has led to PGMs being labeled as "critical materials". Studies of future PGM flows have focused on trends within material flows or macroeconomic indicators. We complement the previous work by introducing a novel technoeconomic model of substitution among PGMs within the automotive sector (the largest user of PGMs) reflecting the rational response of firms to changing prices. The results from the model support previous conclusions that PGM use is likely to grow, in some cases strongly, by 2030 (approximately 45% for Pd and 5% for Pt), driven by the increasing sales of automobiles. The model also indicates that PGM-demand growth will be significantly influenced by the future Pt-to-Pd price ratio, with swings of Pt and Pd demand of as much as 25% if the future price ratio shifts higher or lower even if it stays within the historic range. Fortunately, automotive catalysts are one of the more effectively recycled metals. As such, with proper policy support, recycling can serve to meet some of this growing demand.

  5. Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future.

    Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology.

    Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided.

    Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961–1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for

  6. Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate–hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961–1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice

  7. Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

    2013-12-01

    Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience

  8. FAIR 2.0 - A decision-support tool to assess the environmental and economic consequences of future climate regimes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elzen MGJ den; Lucas P; KMD

    2003-01-01

    Dit rapport beschrijft het beleidsondersteunende model FAIR 2.0 (Framework to Assess International Regimes for differentiation of commitments). FAIR is een interactief computer model voor het (kwantitatief) evalueren van de milieueffectiviteit en economische kosten van verschillende regimes voor

  9. Focus group reflections on the current and future state of cognitive assessment tools in geriatric health care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Whitehead JC

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Jocelyne C Whitehead,1 Sara A Gambino,1 Jeffrey D Richter,2 Jennifer D Ryan1,3,41Rotman Research Institute, Baycrest, 2Independent Human Factors Consultant, Toronto, ON, Canada; 3Department of Psychology, 4Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, CanadaObjective: This study provides insight into the thoughts and opinions of geriatric health-care professionals toward cognitive assessments and the use of emerging technologies, such as eye-tracking, to supplement current tools.Methods: Two focus group sessions were conducted with nurses and physicians who routinely administer neurocognitive assessments to geriatric populations. Video recordings of the focus group sessions were transcribed and a thematic analysis was performed.Results: Participants reported the need for assessment and diagnostic tools that are accessible and efficient, and that are capable of accommodating the rapid growth in the aging population. The prevalence of more complex ailments experienced by older adults has had repercussions in the quality of care that the clients receive, and has contributed to lengthy wait times and resource shortages. Health-care professionals stated that they are hampered by the disjointed structure of the health-care system and that they would benefit from a more efficient allocation of responsibilities made possible through tools that did not require extensive training or certification. Eyetracking-based cognitive assessments were thought to strongly complement this system, yet it was thought that difficulty would be faced in gaining the support and increased uptake by health-care professionals due to the nonintuitive relationship between eyetracking and cognition.Conclusion: The findings suggest that health-care professionals are receptive to the use of eyetracking technology to assess for cognitive health as it would conserve resources by allowing frontline staff to administer assessments with minimal training

  10. Hyper-velocity impact risk assessment and mitigation strategies in the context of future X-ray astronomy missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perinati, Emanuele; Rott, Martin; Santangelo, Andrea; Tenzer, Chris

    2017-06-01

    Future X-ray astronomy missions will be based on instruments with apertures much larger than those used up to now. Therefore, the risk posed by hyper-velocity dust grains in the space environment to the onboard instrumentation will increase, especially when a larger aperture is combined with a longer focal length. Starting from the lessons learned from the XMM and Swift satellites, we review the question of hyper-velocity impacts and discuss the expected impact-rate, risk of damage and possible mitigation strategies in the context of LOFT, eROSITA and ATHENA.

  11. Future Directions: How Virtual Reality Can Further Improve the Assessment and Treatment of Eating Disorders and Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Maldonado, José; Wiederhold, Brenda K; Riva, Giuseppe

    2016-02-01

    Transdisciplinary efforts for further elucidating the etiology of eating and weight disorders and improving the effectiveness of the available evidence-based interventions are imperative at this time. Recent studies indicate that computer-generated graphic environments-virtual reality (VR)-can integrate and extend existing treatments for eating and weight disorders (EWDs). Future possibilities for VR to improve actual approaches include its use for altering in real time the experience of the body (embodiment) and as a cue exposure tool for reducing food craving.

  12. Post-Fire Debris-Flow Hazard Assessments at the U.S. Geological Survey - Recent Advances and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staley, D. M.; Kean, J. W.; Smoczyk, G. M.; Negri, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Wildfire can have profound effects on the hydrologic response of a watershed, and debris-flow activity is among the most destructive consequences of these effects. The continued high likelihood of catastrophic wildfires in the western U. S. and the encroachment of development into fire-prone areas have created the need to develop tools to identify and quantify the potential hazards posed by debris flows generated from burned watersheds. These tools are critically needed by Federal, State, and local agencies to mitigate the impacts of debris flows on people, their property, infrastructure and natural resources. Applied research at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Hazards Program is focused on providing timely, science-based assessments of post-fire debris-flow hazard. Formerly, post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments were disseminated by means of the USGS Open-File Report publication series, which included poster-sized maps that predicted the probability, volume, and combined hazard for given watersheds. Feedback from collaborators suggested that 1) the reports were not sufficiently timely for immediate post-fire use, 2) the static maps were difficult to use for site-specific assessments, and 3) individual assessments were often cost-prohibitive. Beginning in January 2014, the USGS has transitioned to a web-based method for disseminating post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments. This new platform addresses the primary concerns of our stakeholders in three ways. First, the turnaround time has been reduced from 1-2 months for a map and written report, to 3-4 days for a web-based map assessment. This allows response teams to incorporate the assessment results into their reports, which are urgently needed immediately after fires. Second, the new website is interactive and accompanied by downloadable geospatial data of predictions for several storm scenarios. These features permit casual (local residents) and power-users (GIS experts) to evaluate site

  13. The future of environmental sustainability in the Taita Hills, Kenya: assessing potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Maeda

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This article tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, an alternative method is proposed to reduce uncertainties and costs for estimating agricultural water demand. The main characteristic of the approach proposed in this study is the use of satellite data to overcome data availability limitations. Furthermore, a modelling framework was designed to delineate agricultural expansion projections and evaluate the future impacts of agriculture on soil erosion and irrigation water demand. The results indicate that if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change and slight decrease during March and May. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase total annual rainfall volumes during the following decades, irrigation requirements will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

  14. Past and future cadmium emissions from municipal solid-waste incinerators in Japan for the assessment of cadmium control policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Kyoko

    2013-11-15

    Cadmium (Cd) is a harmful pollutant emitted from municipal solid-waste incinerators (MSWIs). Cd stack emissions from MSWIs have been estimated between 1970 and 2030 in Japan. The aims of this study are to quantify emitted Cd by category and to analyze Cd control policies to reduce emissions. Emissions were estimated using a dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) that took into account representative waste treatment flows and historical changes in emission factors. This work revealed that the emissions peaked in 1973 (11.1t) and were ten times those in 2010 (1.2 t). Emission from MSWIs was two-thirds of that from non-ferrous smelting in 2010. The main Cd emission source was pigment use in the 1970s, but after 2000 it had shifted to nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) batteries. Future emissions were estimated for 2030. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, an intensive collection of used Ni-Cd batteries and a ban on any future use of Ni-Cd batteries will reduce emissions by 0.09 and 0.3 1t, respectively, in 2030. This approach enables us to identify the major Cd emission source from MSWIs, and to prioritize the possible Cd control policies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Data Management and the National Climate Assessment: Best Practices, Lessons Learned, and Future Applications: A Data Quality Solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkel, K.; Champion, S.

    2015-12-01

    Data Management and the National Climate Assessment: A Data Quality Solution Sarah M. Champion and Kenneth E. Kunkel Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA), anticipated for its authoritative climate change analysis, was also a vanguard in climate communication. From the cutting-edge website to the organization of information, the Assessment content appealed to, and could be accessed by, many demographics. One such pivotal presentation of information in the NCA was the availability of complex metadata directly connected to graphical products. While the basic metadata requirement is federally mandated through a series of federal guidelines as a part of the Information Quality Act, the NCA is also deemed a Highly Influential Scientific Assessment, which requires demonstration of the transparency and reproducibility of the content. To meet these requirements, the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for the NCA embarked on building a system for collecting and presenting metadata that not only met these requirements, but one that has since been employed in support of additional Assessments. The metadata effort for this NCA proved invaluable for many reasons, one of which being that it showcased that there is a critical need for a culture change within the scientific community to support collection and transparency of data and methods to the level produced with the NCA. Irregardless of being federally mandated, it proves to simply be a good practice in science communication. This presentation will detail the collection system built by the TSU, the improvements employed with additional Assessment products, as well as illustrate examples of successful transparency. Through this presentation, we hope to impel the discussion in support of detailed metadata becoming the cultural norm within the scientific community to support influential and highly policy-relevant documents such as the NCA.

  16. Assessment of the present and future offshore wind power potential: a case study in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizuma, Lita; Avotniece, Zanita; Rupainis, Sergejs; Teilans, Artis

    2013-01-01

    Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

  17. Beyond Renewable Portfolio Standards: An Assessment of Regional Supply and Demand Conditions Affecting the Future of Renewable Energy in the West; Report and Executive Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hurlbut, D. J.; McLaren, J.; Gelman, R.

    2013-08-01

    This study assesses the outlook for utility-scale renewable energy development in the West once states have met their renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements. In the West, the last state RPS culminates in 2025, so the analysis uses 2025 as a transition point on the timeline of RE development. Most western states appear to be on track to meet their final requirements, relying primarily on renewable resources located relatively close to the customers being served. What happens next depends on several factors including trends in the supply and price of natural gas, greenhouse gas and other environmental regulations, consumer preferences, technological breakthroughs, and future public policies and regulations. Changes in any one of these factors could make future renewable energy options more or less attractive.

  18. Assessment of the Present and Future Offshore Wind Power Potential: A Case Study in a Target Territory of the Baltic Sea Near the Latvian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lita Lizuma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

  19. Intraoperative assessment of biliary anatomy for prevention of bile duct injury : a review of current and future patient safety interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buddingh, K. Tim; Nieuwenhuijs, Vincent B.; van Buuren, Lianne; Hulscher, Jan B. F.; de Jong, Johannes S.; van Dam, Gooitzen M.

    2011-01-01

    Background Bile duct injury (BDI) is a dreaded complication of cholecystectomy, often caused by misinterpretation of biliary anatomy. To prevent BDI, techniques have been developed for intraoperative assessment of bile duct anatomy. This article reviews the evidence for the different techniques and

  20. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) for assessment of microbial water quality: current progress, challenges, and future opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, BoonFei; Ng, Charmaine; Nshimyimana, Jean Pierre; Loh, Lay Leng; Gin, Karina Y-H; Thompson, Janelle R

    2015-01-01

    Water quality is an emergent property of a complex system comprised of interacting microbial populations and introduced microbial and chemical contaminants. Studies leveraging next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies are providing new insights into the ecology of microbially mediated processes that influence fresh water quality such as algal blooms, contaminant biodegradation, and pathogen dissemination. In addition, sequencing methods targeting small subunit (SSU) rRNA hypervariable regions have allowed identification of signature microbial species that serve as bioindicators for sewage contamination in these environments. Beyond amplicon sequencing, metagenomic and metatranscriptomic analyses of microbial communities in fresh water environments reveal the genetic capabilities and interplay of waterborne microorganisms, shedding light on the mechanisms for production and biodegradation of toxins and other contaminants. This review discusses the challenges and benefits of applying NGS-based methods to water quality research and assessment. We will consider the suitability and biases inherent in the application of NGS as a screening tool for assessment of biological risks and discuss the potential and limitations for direct quantitative interpretation of NGS data. Secondly, we will examine case studies from recent literature where NGS based methods have been applied to topics in water quality assessment, including development of bioindicators for sewage pollution and microbial source tracking, characterizing the distribution of toxin and antibiotic resistance genes in water samples, and investigating mechanisms of biodegradation of harmful pollutants that threaten water quality. Finally, we provide a short review of emerging NGS platforms and their potential applications to the next generation of water quality assessment tools.

  1. Ready for the Future: The Role of Performance Assessments in Shaping Graduates' Academic, Professional, and Personal Lives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Laurie

    2010-01-01

    The perspectives of graduates offer a valuable source of understanding for educators and policy-makers on how to ensure high quality educational pathways that prepare all students for work and college. Based on in-depth interviews with graduates from three Boston Public Schools with well-established performance-based assessment systems, the study…

  2. Applying Comprehensive Environmental Assessment to Research Planning for Multiwalled Carbon Nanotubes: Refinements to Inform Future Stakeholder Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    We previously described our collective judgment methods to engage expert stakeholders in the Comprehensive Environmental Assessment (CEA) workshop process applied to nano-TiO2 and nano-Ag research planning. We identified several lessons learned in engaging stakeholders to identif...

  3. Sailor: Maryland's Online Public Information Network. Sailor Network Assessment Final Report: Findings and Future Sailor Network Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertot, John Carlo; McClure, Charles R.

    This report describes the results of an assessment of Sailor, Maryland's Online Public Information Network, which provides statewide Internet connection to 100% of Maryland public libraries. The concept of a "statewide networked environment" includes information services, products, hardware and software, telecommunications…

  4. Climate Change Impacts on Texas Water: A White Paper Assessment of the Past, Present and Future and Recommendations for Action

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banner, Jay L.; Jackson, Charles S.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Hayhoe, Katharine; Woodhouse, Connie; Gulden, Lindsey; Jacobs, Kathy; North, Gerald; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Washington, Warren M.; Jiang, Xiaoyan; Casteel, Richard

    2010-09-01

    Texas comprises the eastern portion of the Southwest region, where the convergence of climatological and geopolitical forces has the potential to put extreme stress on water resources. Geologic records indicate that Texas experienced large climate changes on millennial time scales in the past, and over the last thousand years, tree-ring records indicate that there were significant periods of drought in Texas. These droughts were of longer duration than the 1950s 'drought of record' that is commonly used in planning, and they occurred independently of human-induced global climate change. Although there has been a negligible net temperature increase in Texas over the past century, temperatures have increased more significantly over the past three decades. Under essentially all climate model projections, Texas is susceptible to significant climate change in the future. Most projections for the 21st century show that with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, there will be an increase in temperatures across Texas and a shift to a more arid average climate. Studies agree that Texas will likely become significantly warmer and drier, yet the magnitude, timing, and regional distribution of these changes are uncertain. There is a large uncertainty in the projected changes in precipitation for Texas for the 21st century. In contrast, the more robust projected increase in temperature with its effect on evaporation, which is a dominant component in the region's hydrologic cycle, is consistent with model projections of frequent and extended droughts throughout the state. For these reasons, we recommend that Texas invest resources to investigate and anticipate the impacts of climate change on Texas water resources, with the goal of providing data to inform resource planning. This investment should support development of (1) research programs that provide policy-relevant science; (2) education programs to engage future researchers and policy

  5. Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunel, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world’s worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management. PMID:27513336

  6. Assessing the zoonotic potential of Ascaris suum and Trichuris suis: looking to the future from an analysis of the past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, P; Betson, M; Bendall, R P; Thamsborg, S M; Stothard, J R

    2012-06-01

    The two geohelminths, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura, infect more than a billion people worldwide but are only reported sporadically in the developed part of the world. In contrast, the closely related species A. suum and T. suis in pigs have a truly global distribution, with infected pigs found in most production systems. In areas where pigs and humans live in close proximity or where pig manure is used as fertilizer on vegetables for human consumption, there is a potential risk of cross-infections. We therefore review this relationship between Ascaris and Trichuris in the human and pig host, with special focus on recent evidence concerning the zoonotic potential of these parasites, and identify some open questions for future research.

  7. Assessing Watershed Transport of Atrazine and Nitrate to Evaluate Conservation Practice Effects and Advise Future Monitoring Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, T. Kevin

    2012-01-01

    Continued public support for U.S. taxpayer funded programs aimed at reducing agricultural pollutants depends on clear demonstrations of water quality improvements. The objective of this research was to determine if implementation of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) in the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) resulted in changes to atrazine and nitrate (NO3-N) loads during storm events. An additional objective was to estimate future monitoring periods necessary to detect a 5, 10, 20, and 25% reduction in atrazine and NO3-N event load. The GCEW is a 73 km2 watershed located in northcentral Missouri, USA. Linear regressions and Akaike Information Criteria were used to determine if reductions in atrazine and NO3-N event loads occurred as BMPs were implemented. No effects due to any BMP type were indicated for the period of record. Further investigation of event sampling from the long-term GCEW monitoring program indicated errors in atrazine load calculations may be possible due to pre-existing minimum threshold levels used to trigger autosampling and sample compositing. Variation of event loads was better explained by linear regressions for NO3-N than for atrazine. Decommissioning of upstream monitoring stations during the study period represented a missed opportunity to further explain variation of event loads at the watershed outlet. Atrazine requires approximately twice the monitoring period relative to NO3-N to detect future reductions in event load. Appropriate matching of pollutant transport mechanisms with autosampling protocols remains a critical information need when setting up or adapting watershed monitoring networks aimed at detecting watershed-scale BMP effects.

  8. Past and future cadmium emissions from municipal solid-waste incinerators in Japan for the assessment of cadmium control policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ono, Kyoko, E-mail: kyoko.ono@aist.go.jp

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Cd emissions from municipal solid waste incinerators were estimated for 1970–2030. • Emissions peaked in 1973 (11.1 t) at levels ten times that in 2010 (1.2 t). • In the 1970s, the main source was pigments, but after 2000, it was Ni-Cd batteries. • The effects of two Cd control policies were compared. • Banning Cd use reduced emissions more than intensive collection of batteries. -- Abstract: Cadmium (Cd) is a harmful pollutant emitted from municipal solid-waste incinerators (MSWIs). Cd stack emissions from MSWIs have been estimated between 1970 and 2030 in Japan. The aims of this study are to quantify emitted Cd by category and to analyze Cd control policies to reduce emissions. Emissions were estimated using a dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) that took into account representative waste treatment flows and historical changes in emission factors. This work revealed that the emissions peaked in 1973 (11.1 t) and were ten times those in 2010 (1.2 t). Emission from MSWIs was two-thirds of that from non-ferrous smelting in 2010. The main Cd emission source was pigment use in the 1970s, but after 2000 it had shifted to nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) batteries. Future emissions were estimated for 2030. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, an intensive collection of used Ni-Cd batteries and a ban on any future use of Ni-Cd batteries will reduce emissions by 0.09 and 0.31 t, respectively, in 2030. This approach enables us to identify the major Cd emission source from MSWIs, and to prioritize the possible Cd control policies.

  9. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-08-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants.

  10. Assessment of simulated rainfall and temperature from the regional climate model REMO and future changes over Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Tchawoua, Clément; Haensler, Andreas

    2016-07-01

    This work investigates spatial and temporal changes in rainfall and temperature over Central Africa, using historical and representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the regional climate model REMO forced by two general climate models: the Europe-wide Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) and the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). We found that in the present period (1980-2005), the spatial distribution of rainfall is simulated with an annual spatial pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.76 for REMO driven by EC-Earth and 0.74 for REMO driven by MPI-ESM respectively when compared to CRU data. In terms of temperature, the annual PCC is 0.93 for the two REMO outputs. According to the climatology of Central Africa, we subdivided the study area into five sub-regions, we also noticed that the annual and seasonal PCC depend on the considered sub-region. For the future period (2070-2095), temperature is projected to increase following all the three scenarios. The rainfall amount is projected to decrease by up to 5 mm/day towards the end of the twenty first century under RCP8.5 scenario, and by 1-2 mm/day under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios over Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo, north-western Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Lake Victoria. Significant decrease is predicted to occur mostly in the northern part of the domain under RCP8.5 scenario. However, future rainfall over High Lands of Cameroon, Adamawa Plateau, north-eastern DRC and Atlantic Ocean is projected to increase.

  11. Assessment of simulated rainfall and temperature from the regional climate model REMO and future changes over Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Tchawoua, Clément; Haensler, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    This work investigates spatial and temporal changes in rainfall and temperature over Central Africa, using historical and representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the regional climate model REMO forced by two general climate models: the Europe-wide Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) and the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). We found that in the present period (1980-2005), the spatial distribution of rainfall is simulated with an annual spatial pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.76 for REMO driven by EC-Earth and 0.74 for REMO driven by MPI-ESM respectively when compared to CRU data. In terms of temperature, the annual PCC is 0.93 for the two REMO outputs. According to the climatology of Central Africa, we subdivided the study area into five sub-regions, we also noticed that the annual and seasonal PCC depend on the considered sub-region. For the future period (2070-2095), temperature is projected to increase following all the three scenarios. The rainfall amount is projected to decrease by up to 5 mm/day towards the end of the twenty first century under RCP8.5 scenario, and by 1-2 mm/day under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios over Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo, north-western Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Lake Victoria. Significant decrease is predicted to occur mostly in the northern part of the domain under RCP8.5 scenario. However, future rainfall over High Lands of Cameroon, Adamawa Plateau, north-eastern DRC and Atlantic Ocean is projected to increase.

  12. Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing Climate—Assessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patric Kellermann

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs between the periods 1961–1990 and 2011–2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, and—if needed—to adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite.

  13. Remote sensing research for spatial assessment of woody structure in African savannahs & woodlands –past, on-going, and future work by the CSIR

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mathieu, Renaud SA

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available ASSESSMENT OF WOODY STRUCTURE IN AFRICAN SAVANNAHS & WOODLANDS – PAST, ON-GOING, AND FUTURE WORK BY THE CSIR MATHIEU R.1,, NAIDOO L.1, CHO M.1, WESSELS K.2, ASNER G.P3 1Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Natural Resources... products for effective savanna & woodland management • This research is on-going and is a key area of interest for the CSIR Ecosystems Earth Observation unit Box 2: LiDAR Studies and Examples Box 4: Multi-angle optical technique • E.g. Coarse scale Multi...

  14. Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

    2013-01-01

    The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

  15. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) for assessment of microbial water quality: current progress, challenges, and future opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, BoonFei; Ng, Charmaine; Nshimyimana, Jean Pierre; Loh, Lay Leng; Gin, Karina Y.-H.; Thompson, Janelle R.

    2015-01-01

    Water quality is an emergent property of a complex system comprised of interacting microbial populations and introduced microbial and chemical contaminants. Studies leveraging next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies are providing new insights into the ecology of microbially mediated processes that influence fresh water quality such as algal blooms, contaminant biodegradation, and pathogen dissemination. In addition, sequencing methods targeting small subunit (SSU) rRNA hypervariable regions have allowed identification of signature microbial species that serve as bioindicators for sewage contamination in these environments. Beyond amplicon sequencing, metagenomic and metatranscriptomic analyses of microbial communities in fresh water environments reveal the genetic capabilities and interplay of waterborne microorganisms, shedding light on the mechanisms for production and biodegradation of toxins and other contaminants. This review discusses the challenges and benefits of applying NGS-based methods to water quality research and assessment. We will consider the suitability and biases inherent in the application of NGS as a screening tool for assessment of biological risks and discuss the potential and limitations for direct quantitative interpretation of NGS data. Secondly, we will examine case studies from recent literature where NGS based methods have been applied to topics in water quality assessment, including development of bioindicators for sewage pollution and microbial source tracking, characterizing the distribution of toxin and antibiotic resistance genes in water samples, and investigating mechanisms of biodegradation of harmful pollutants that threaten water quality. Finally, we provide a short review of emerging NGS platforms and their potential applications to the next generation of water quality assessment tools. PMID:26441948

  16. Development of a Future Representative Concentration Pathway for Use in the IPCC 5th Assessment Earth System Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-12-29

    The representative concentration pathway to be delivered is a scenario of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important atmospheric species, along with land-use changes, derived from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The particular representative concentration pathway (RCP) that the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) has been responsible for is a not-to-exceed pathway that stabilizes at a radiative forcing of 4.5Wm-2 in the year 2100.

  17. Next-generation sequencing (NGS for assessment of microbial water quality: current progress, challenges, and future opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BoonFei eTan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Water quality is an emergent property of a complex system comprised of interacting microbial populations and introduced microbial and chemical contaminants. Studies leveraging next-generation sequencing (NGS technologies are providing new insights into the ecology of microbially mediated processes that influence fresh water quality such as algal blooms, contaminant biodegradation, and pathogen dissemination. In addition, sequencing methods targeting small subunit (SSU rRNA hypervariable regions have allowed identification of signature microbial species that serve as bioindicators for sewage contamination in these environments. Beyond amplicon sequencing, metagenomic and metatranscriptomic analyses of microbial communities in fresh water environments reveal the genetic capabilities and interplay of waterborne microorganisms, shedding light on the mechanisms for production and biodegradation of toxins and other contaminants. This review discusses the challenges and benefits of applying NGS-based methods to water quality research and assessment. We will consider the suitability and biases inherent in the application of NGS as a screening tool for assessment of biological risks and discuss the potential and limitations for direct quantitative interpretation of NGS data. Secondly, we will examine case studies from recent literature where NGS based methods have been applied to topics in water quality assessment, including development of bioindicators for sewage pollution and microbial source tracking, characterizing the distribution of toxin and antibiotic resistance genes in water samples, and investigating mechanisms of biodegradation of harmful pollutants that threaten water quality. Finally, we provide a short review of emerging NGS platforms and their potential applications to the next generation of water quality assessment tools.

  18. Review of laboratory-based terrestrial bioaccumulation assessment approaches for organic chemicals: Current status and future possibilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoke, Robert; Huggett, Duane; Brasfield, Sandra; Brown, Becky; Embry, Michelle; Fairbrother, Anne; Kivi, Michelle; Paumen, Miriam Leon; Prosser, Ryan; Salvito, Dan; Scroggins, Rick

    2016-01-01

    In the last decade, interest has been renewed in approaches for the assessment of the bioaccumulation potential of chemicals, principally driven by the need to evaluate large numbers of chemicals as part of new chemical legislation, while reducing vertebrate test organism use called for in animal welfare legislation. This renewed interest has inspired research activities and advances in bioaccumulation science for neutral organic chemicals in aquatic environments. In January 2013, ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute convened experts to identify the state of the science and existing shortcomings in terrestrial bioaccumulation assessment of neutral organic chemicals. Potential modifications to existing laboratory methods were identified, including areas in which new laboratory approaches or test methods could be developed to address terrestrial bioaccumulation. The utility of "non-ecotoxicity" data (e.g., mammalian laboratory data) was also discussed. The highlights of the workshop discussions are presented along with potential modifications in laboratory approaches and new test guidelines that could be used for assessing the bioaccumulation of chemicals in terrestrial organisms.

  19. Towards our Common Future: Comparative Assessment of the Sustainable Development Strategies of the European Union, the Mediterranean and Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomaz DEŽELAN

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses three sustainable de- velopment strategies – the European Union’s Sustainable Development Strategy in its revised version, the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustain- able Development and Slovenia’s Development Strategy – according to the level of sustainability these strategies provide. Deriving from three di- verse sustainable development regimes, select- ed strategies are scrutinised for the presence of the five general principles of effective sustainable development strategies promoted by the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Co- operation and Development. Building on George and Kirkpatrick’s (2006 framework for analysis, we concentrate on principles of strategic planning and sustainable development, and a coordinated set of measures to ensure their implementation. The results reveal that the major differences be- tween the assessed strategies are present in the sophistication of the theoretical bases and the integration of three main pillars of sustainable development (i.e. environmental, economic and social. In general, the assessed strategies re- flect a high degree of inclusiveness of a variety of interests. However, there is a common weak- ness among them in terms of implementation, be it in the provision of adequate resources, the guarantee of adequate implementing capacity of the institutions designated for implementation or the precise definition of the institutional frame- work responsible for the implementation of the strategy.

  20. Assessment of future changes in the maximum temperature at selected stations in Iran based on HADCM3 and CGCM3 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasnia, Mohsen; Tavousi, Taghi; Khosravi, Mahmood

    2016-08-01

    Identification and assessment of climate change in the next decades with the aim of appropriate environmental planning in order to adapt and mitigate its effects are quite necessary. In this study, maximum temperature changes of Iran were comparatively examined in two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2099) and based on the two general circulation model outputs (CGCM3 and HADCM3) and under existing emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1 and B2). For this purpose, after examining the ability of statistical downscaling method of SDSM in simulation of the observational period (1981-2010), the daily maximum temperature of future decades was downscaled by considering the uncertainty in seven synoptic stations as representatives of climate in Iran. In uncertainty analysis related to model-scenarios, it was found that CGCM3 model under scenario B1 had the best performance about the simulation of future maximum temperature among all of the examined scenario-models. The findings also showed that the maximum temperature at study stations will be increased between 1°C and 2°C in the middle and the end of 21st century. Also this maximum temperature changes is more severe in the HADCM3 model than the CGCM3 model.

  1. On Track to Become a Low Carbon Future City? First Findings of the Integrated Status Quo and Trends Assessment of the Pilot City of Wuxi in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Vallentin

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC project aims at facing a three dimensional challenge by developing an integrated city roadmap balancing: low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The paper gives an overview of the first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi—the Chinese pilot city for the LCFC project. As a first step, a detailed emission inventory following the IPCC guidelines for Wuxi has been carried out. In a second step, the future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2050 were simulated in a current policy scenario (CPS. In parallel, selected aspects of material and water flows for the energy and the building sector were analyzed and modeled. In addition, recent and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Based on these findings, nine key sectors with high relevance to the three dimensions could be identified. Although Wuxi’s government has started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that, for the shift towards a sustainable low carbon development, more ambitious steps need to be taken in order to overcome the challenges faced.

  2. Applying the Triangle Method for the parameterization of irrigated areas as input for spatially distributed hydrological modeling - Assessing future drought risk in the Gaza Strip (Palestine).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gampe, David; Ludwig, Ralf; Qahman, Khalid; Afifi, Samir

    2016-02-01

    In the Mediterranean region, particularly in the Gaza strip, an increased risk of drought is among the major concerns related to climate change. The impacts of climate change on water availability, drought risk and food security can be assessed by means of hydro-climatological modeling. However, the region is prone to severe observation data scarcity, which limits the potential for robust model parameterization, calibration and validation. In this study, the physically based, spatially distributed hydrological model WaSiM is parameterized and evaluated using satellite imagery to assess hydrological quantities. The Triangle Method estimates actual evapotranspiration (ETR) through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) provided by Landsat TM imagery. So-derived spatially distributed evapotranspiration is then used in two ways: first a subset of the imagery is used to parameterize the irrigation module of WaSiM and second, withheld scenes are applied to evaluate the performance of the hydrological model in the data scarce study area. The results show acceptable overall correlation with the validation scenes (r=0.53) and an improvement over the usual irrigation parameterization scheme using land use information exclusively. This model setup is then applied for future drought risk assessment in the Gaza Strip using a small ensemble of four regional climate projections for the period 2041-2070. Hydrological modeling reveals an increased risk of drought, assessed with an evapotranspiration index, compared to the reference period 1971-2000. Current irrigation procedures cannot maintain the agricultural productivity under future conditions without adaptation.

  3. The development of a realistic source term for sodium-cooled fast reactors : assessment of current status and future needs.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Phillips, Jesse; Parma, Edward J., Jr.; Olivier, Tara Jean; Middleton, Bobby D.

    2011-06-01

    Sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) continue to be proposed and designed throughout the United States and the world. Although the number of SFRs actually operating has declined substantially since the 1980s, a significant interest in advancing these types of reactor systems remains. Of the many issues associated with the development and deployment of SFRs, one of high regulatory importance is the source term to be used in the siting of the reactor. A substantial amount of modeling and experimental work has been performed over the past four decades on accident analysis, sodium coolant behavior, and radionuclide release for SFRs. The objective of this report is to aid in determining the gaps and issues related to the development of a realistic, mechanistically derived source term for SFRs. This report will allow the reader to become familiar with the severe accident source term concept and gain a broad understanding of the current status of the models and experimental work. Further, this report will allow insight into future work, in terms of both model development and experimental validation, which is necessary in order to develop a realistic source term for SFRs.

  4. Simple Method for Assessing Spread of Flood Prone Areas under Historical and Future Rainfall in the Upper Citarum Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Dwi Dasanto

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available From 1931 to 2010 the flood frequency in Upper Citarum Watershed had increased sharply indicating the decline of the wateshed quality. With the change of climate, risk of the flood may get worse. This study aims to determine effective rainfall that caused flooding and to evaluate the impact of future rainfall changes on the flood prone areas. Effective rainfall which contributes to direct runoff (DRO and leads to flooding was determined using regression equation relating the DRO and cumulative rainfall of a number of consecutive days. Mapping the flood prone areas was developed using the GIS techniques. Results showed that the effective rainfall which caused flooding was the rainfall accumulation for four consecutive days before occurrence of peak of DRO. The percentage of accuracy between estimated and actual flood maps was about 76.9%. According to historical rainfall, the flood prone areas spreaded at right and left directions of the Upstream Citarum River. If this area experiences the climate change, the frequency and flood extents will increase. This study can only identify locations and possibility of flood occurrence but it cannot demonstrate widespread of flood inundation precisely. However, this simple approach can evaluate the flood frequency and intensity quite well.

  5. Mucometra, cystic endometrial hyperplasia, and pyometra in the bitch: advances in treatment and assessment of future reproductive success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstegen, J; Dhaliwal, G; Verstegen-Onclin, K

    2008-08-01

    Pyometra is a common reproductive disorder which affects nearly one fourth of all female dogs before they reach 10 y of age. An association between pyometra and the most common uterine disease of the bitch, cystic endometrial hyperplasia, has been established, as the latter allows commensal bacteria originating from the vagina to proliferate in the uterus at the end of estrus. The progressive degenerative process in the development of cystic endometrial hyperplasia is usually proposed as the initiating lesion for pyometra in bitches; this is mediated by progesterone and potentially aggravated by estrogens. However, a separate process caused by local uterine irritation to trophoblastic reaction and bacterial proliferation has been recently proposed as an alternate mechanism leading to the development of pyometra. Pyometra is clinically distinct in pathogenesis, signs, treatment and prognosis from postpartum metritis or mucometra. Treatment of pyometra has historically involved ovariohysterectomy, however, during the last 10 y, numerous effective treatments have been proposed to treat both open and closed cervix pyometra with good success and future fertility. Among the treatments available, the use of repeated low doses of prostaglandins alone or in association with either dopamine agonists or progesterone-receptor antagonists has been demonstrated to be a viable alternative for valuable breeding dogs.

  6. An overview of travel-associated central nervous system infectious diseases:risk assessment, general considerations and future directions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Morteza Izadi; Arman Ishaqi; Mohammad Ali Ishaqi; Nematollah Jonaidi Jafari; Fatemeh Rahamaty; Abdolali Banki

    2014-01-01

    Nervous system infections are among the most important diseases in travellers. Healthy travellers might be exposed to infectious agents of central nervous system, which may require in-patient care. Progressive course is not uncommon in this family of disorders and requires swift diagnosis. An overview of the available evidence in the field is, therefore, urgent to pave the way to increase the awareness of travel-medicine practitioners and highlights dark areas for future research. In November 2013, data were collected from PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Knowledge (1980 to 2013) including books, reviews, and peer-reviewed literature. Works pertained to pre-travel care, interventions, vaccinations related neurological infections were retrieved. Here we provide information on pre-travel care, vaccination, chronic nervous system disorders, and post-travel complications. Recommendations with regard to knowledge gaps, and state-of-the-art research are made. Given an increasing number of international travellers, novel dynamic ways are available for physicians to monitor spread of central nervous system infections. Newer research has made great progresses in developing newer medications, detecting the spread of infections and the public awareness. Despite an ongoing scientific discussion in the field of travel medicine, further research is required for vaccine development, state-of-the-art laboratory tests, and genetic engineering of vectors.

  7. An overview of travel-associated central nervous system infectious diseases:risk assessment,general considerations and future directions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Morteza; Izadi; Annan; Is’haqi; Mohammad; Ali; Is’haqi; Nematollah; Jonaidi; Jafari; Fatemeh; Rahamaty; Abdolali; Banki

    2014-01-01

    Nervous system infections are among the most important diseases in travellers.Healthy travellers might be exposed to infectious agents of central nervous system,which may require in-patient care.Progressive course is not uncommon in this family of disorders and requires swift diagnosis.An overview of the available evidence in the field is.therefore,Urgent to pave the way to increase the awareness of travel-medicine practitioners and highlights dark areas for future research.In November 2013,data were collected from PubMed,Scopus,and Web of knowledge(1980 to2013) including books,reviews,and peer-reviewed literature,Works pertained to pre-travel care,interventions,vaccinations related neurological infections were retrieved.Here we provide information on pre-travel care,vaccination,chronic nervous system disorders,and post-travel complications.Recommendations with regard to knowledge gaps,and state-of-the-art research are made.Given an increasing number of international travellers,novel dynamic ways are available for physicians to monitor spread of central nervous system infections.Newer research has made great progresses in developing newer medications,detecting the spread of infections and the public awareness.Despite an ongoing scientific discussion in the field of travel medicine,further research is required for vaccine development,state-of-the-art laboratory tests,and genetic engineering of vectors.

  8. Assessing Calorimeter Requirements for a 100 TeV Future Collider With Reference to New Physics Benchmarks

    CERN Document Server

    Dylewsky, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Plans for a future 100 TeV circular collider require the design of detection equipment capable of measuring events at such high energy. This study examined the simulated decay of hypothetical 10 TeV excited quarks in 100 TeV pp collisions with regard to the possibility of calorimeter punch-through. Two methods of parameterizing the energy resolution in detector simulations were employed to model the effects of particles escaping the hadronic calorimeter. Varying the constant term of the energy resolution parameterization caused the dijet mass distribution to broaden up to 58% with respect to the ATLAS default. Using the assumption that the jets' makeup could be approximated by 180 GeV pions, their expected signal degradation in calorimeters of varying depths was compared to the varied constant term trials. It was found that the broadening associated with a calorimeter of thickness 7 lambda was consistent with that caused by an increase of 1\\% in the constant term (from the ATLAS default).

  9. Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2  °C futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia; Wehner, Michael; O'Neill, Brian; Jahn, Alexandra; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Lehner, Flavio; Strand, Warren G.; Lin, Lei; Knutti, Reto; Lamarque, Jean Francois

    2017-09-01

    The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. In this study, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. Here we describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 °C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 °C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.

  10. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic;

    2016-01-01

    for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes...... on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict...

  11. Asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis treated with medical therapy alone: temporal trends and implications for risk assessment and the design of future studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadar, Nira; Raman, Gowri; Moorthy, Denish; O'Donnell, Thomas F; Thaler, David E; Feldmann, Edward; Lau, Joseph; Kitsios, Georgios D; Dahabreh, Issa J

    2014-01-01

    The rate of adverse clinical outcomes among patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis receiving medical therapy alone can be used to guide clinical decision-making and to inform future research. We aimed to investigate temporal changes in the incidence rate of clinical outcomes among patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis receiving medical therapy alone and to explore the implications of these changes for the design of future comparative studies. We searched MEDLINE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, US Food and Drug Administration documents, and reference lists of included studies (last search: December 31, 2012). We selected prospective cohort studies of medical therapy for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis and we extracted information on study characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes. We performed meta-analyses to estimate summary incidence rates, meta-regressions to assess trends over time, and simulations to explore sample size requirements for the design of future studies comparing new treatments against medical therapy. The main outcomes of interest were ipsilateral stroke, any stroke, cardiovascular death, death, and myocardial infarction. We identified 41 studies of medical therapy for patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis (last recruitment year: 1978-2009). The summary incidence rate of ipsilateral carotid territory stroke (25 studies) was 1.7 per 100 person-years. This incidence rate was significantly lower in recent studies (last recruitment year from 2000 onwards) as compared to studies that ended recruitment earlier (1.0 vs. 2.3 events per 100 person-years; p < 0.001). The incidence rates of any territory stroke (17 studies), cardiovascular death (6 studies), death (13 studies), and myocardial infarction (5 studies) were 2.7, 4.1, 4.6, and 1.8 per 100 person-years, respectively. Simulations showed that future studies would need to enroll large numbers of patients with a relatively high incidence rate under medical

  12. Using the CLM Crop Model to assess the impacts of changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Geographic Distribution on Historical and Future Crop Yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P.

    2015-12-01

    Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate

  13. Human health and ecological assessment programs for Hebei Spirit oil spill accident of 2007: Status, lessons, and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Dawoon; Kim, Jung-Ah; Park, Myung-Sook; Yim, Un Hyuk; Choi, Kyungho

    2017-04-01

    Hebei Spirit oil spill (HSOS) of December 2007 is one of the worst oil spill accidents that occurred in Yellow Sea. The affected coastline along the west coast of Korean Peninsula hosts one of the largest tidal flats worldwide, and is home to tens of thousands of human residents. Based on nation-wide concerns on ecosystem damages and adverse human health effects, two separate surveillance programs on ecosystem and human health were initiated: a 10-year follow-up program by Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries to assess ecological impacts of the oil spill, and an exposure and health effect assessment program by Ministry of Environment for the residents of Taean and its vicinity. For the past eight years, extensive monitoring and surveillance data on ecosystem and humans have been accumulated through these programs. But these studies have been conducted mostly independently, and collaborations were seldom made between two programs. The lack of communication resulted in gaps and overlaps between the programs which led to loss of critical information and efficiency. As oil spill can affect both humans and ecosystem through various pathways, collaboration and communication between human and ecosystem health surveillance programs are necessary, and will synergize the success of both programs. Such concerted efforts will provide better platform for understanding the status of impact, and for developing approaches to address human and ecosystem health challenges that may be faced following environmental disasters like HSOS.

  14. Using surrogate vaccines to assess feasibility and acceptability of future HIV vaccine trials in men: a randomised trial in inner-city Johannesburg, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chimoyi, Lucy; Kamndaya, Mphatso; Venables, Emilie; von Knorring, Nina; Stadler, Jonathan; MacPhail, Catherine; Chersich, Matthew F; Rees, Helen; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead

    2017-07-04

    Developing an effective HIV vaccine is the overriding priority for HIV prevention research. Enrolling and maintaining cohorts of men into HIV vaccine efficacy trials is a necessary prerequisite for the development and licensure of a safe and efficacious vaccine. One hundred-fifty consenting HIV-negative men were enrolled into a pilot 1:1 randomised controlled trial of immediate vaccination with a three-dose hepatitis B vaccine compared to deferred vaccination (at 12 months) to investigate feasibility and acceptability of a future HIV vaccine trial in this population. Adverse events, changes in risk behaviour, acceptability of trial procedures and motivations for participation in future trials were assessed. Men were a median 25 years old (inter-quartile range = 23-29), 53% were employed, 90% secondary school educated and 67% uncircumcised. Of the 900 scheduled study visits, 90% were completed in the immediate vaccination arm (405/450) and 88% (396/450) in the delayed arm (P = 0.338). Acceptability of trial procedures and services was very high overall. However, only 65% of the deferred group strongly liked being randomised compared to 90% in the immediate group (P = 0.001). Informed consent processes were viewed favourably by 92% of the delayed and 82% of the immediate group (P = 0.080). Good quality health services, especially if provided by a male nurse, were rated highly. Even though almost all participants had some concern about the safety of a future HIV vaccine (98%), the majority were willing to participate in a future trial. Future trial participation would be motivated mainly by the potential for accessing an effective vaccine (81%) and altruism (75%), rather than by reimbursement incentives (2%). Recruitment and retention of men into vaccine trials is feasible and acceptable in our setting. Findings from this surrogate vaccine trial show a high willingness to participate in future HIV vaccine trials. While access to potentially effective

  15. Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

    2017-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. How To Assess The Future Tree-Cover Potential For Reforestation Planning In Semi-Arid Regions? An Attempt Using The Vegetation Model ORCHIDEE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaud, A.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.

    2015-12-01

    More and more reforestation projects are undertaken at local to continental scales to fight desertification, to address development challenges, and to improve local living conditions in tropical semi-arid regions. These regions are very sensitive to climatic changes and the potential for maintaining tree-covers will be altered in the next decades. Therefore, reforestation planning needs predicting the future "climatic tree-cover potential": the optimum tree-fraction sustainable in future climatic states. Global circulation models projections provide possible future climatologies for the 21st century. These can be used at the global scale to force a land-surface model, which in turn simulates the vegetation development under these conditions. The tree cover leading to an optimum development may then be identified. We propose here to run a state-of-the-art model and to assess the span and the relevance of the answers that can be obtained for reforestation planning. The ORCHIDEE vegetation model is chosen here to allow a multi-criteria evaluation of the optimum cover, as it returns surface climate state variables as well as vegetation functioning and biomass products. It is forced with global climate data (WFDEI and CRU) for the 20th century and models projections (CMIP5 outputs) for the 21st century. At the grid-cell resolution of the forcing climate data, tree-covers ranging from 0 to 100% are successively prescribed. A set of indicators is then derived from the model outputs, meant for modulating reforestation strategies according to the regional priorities (e.g. maximize the biomass production or decrease the surface air temperature). The choice of indicators and the relevance of the final answers provided will be collectively assessed by the climate scientists and reforestation project management experts from the KINOME social enterprise (http://en.kinome.fr). Such feedback will point towards the model most urging needs for improvement.

  17. Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Hojlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jonsdottir, Svala Ingibjorg; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A.; Terzago, Silivia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qui, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V.

    2016-01-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

  18. Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

    2014-08-19

    Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

  19. Radiological impact assessment of radioactive minerals of amang and ilmenite on future landuse using RESRAD computer code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Azlina, M.J.; Ismail, B. E-mail: ismail@pkrisc.cc.ukm.my; Yasir, M. Samudi; Sakuma, Syed Hakimi; Khairuddin, M.K

    2003-03-01

    A radiological impact assessment (RIA) onto environment from radioactive minerals of amang and ilmenite was carried out in an amang processing plant at Dengkil, Selangor, Malaysia. The RIA was based on maximum total doses received by residents and industrial workers with the assumption that the area will be turned into a residential or industrial area once the plant is closed. RIA was based on a land area of 20,000 m{sup 2} with 0.2 m thick contamination zone. Result was obtained by comparing with the limits prescribed by Atomic Energy Licensing Board of Malaysia (AELB), which is 1 mSv y{sup -1} for public. The parameter input was based on the study location specific value, existing value in RESRAD and suitable estimation values based on sensitivity analysis. Based on two scenarios, the predicted maximum total doses received by residents and industrial workers in extreme condition are 10.41, 1.94, 35.03 and 35.0 mSv y{sup -1} each exceeding the dose limit for public. Nevertheless, with the use of soil cover with thickness between 0.1 and 1 m and ventilation rates between 1 and 10 h{sup -1}, these maximum total doses can be lowered to levels not exceeding the set dose limit and the area can be used safely for residential as well as industrial purpose.

  20. An approach to developing local climate change environmental public health indicators, vulnerability assessments, and projections of future impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Adele; English, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Environmental public health indicators (EPHIs) are used by local, state, and federal health agencies to track the status of environmental hazards; exposure to those hazards; health effects of exposure; and public health interventions designed to reduce or prevent the hazard, exposure, or resulting health effect. Climate and health EPHIs have been developed at the state, federal, and international levels. However, they are also needed at the local level to track variations in community vulnerability and to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions designed to enhance community resilience. This review draws on a guidance document developed by the U.S. Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists' State Environmental Health Indicators Collaborative climate change working group to present a three-tiered approach to develop local climate change EPHIs. Local climate change EPHIs can assist local health departments (LHDs) in implementing key steps of the 10 essential public health services and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Building Resilience Against Climate Effects framework. They also allow LHDs to incorporate climate-related trends into the larger health department planning process and can be used to perform vulnerability assessments which can be leveraged to ensure that interventions designed to address climate change do not exacerbate existing health disparities.

  1. Life cycle assessment of molten carbonate fuel cells: State of the art and strategies for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmeti, Andi; Santoni, Francesca; Della Pietra, Massimiliano; McPhail, Stephen J.

    2016-03-01

    This study aims to review and provide an up to date international life cycle thinking literature with particular emphasis on life cycle assessment (LCA), applied to Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells (MCFCs), a technology forcefully entering the field of decentralized heat and power generation. Critical environmental issues, comparison of results between studies and improvement strategies are analyzed and highlighted. The findings stress that MCFC environmental performance is heavily influenced by the current use of non-renewable energy and high material demand of rare minerals which generate high environmental burdens in the manufacturing stage, thereby confirming the prominent role of these processes in a comprehensive LCA study. The comparison of operational phases highlights that MCFCs are robust and able to compete with other mature technologies contributing substantially to airborne emissions reduction and promoting a switch to renewable fuels, however, further progress and market competitiveness urges adoption of an eco-efficiency philosophy to forge the link between environmental and economic concerns. Adopting a well-organized systematic research driven by life cycle models and eco-efficiency principles stakeholders will glean valuable information to make well balanced decisions for improving performance towards the concept 'producing more quality with less resources' and accelerate market penetration of the technology.

  2. Assessing the Suitability of Future Multi- and Hyperspectral Satellite Systems for Mapping the Spatial Distribution of Norway Spruce Timber Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Nink

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The availability of accurate and timely information on timber volume is important for supporting operational forest management. One option is to combine statistical concepts (e.g., small area estimates with specifically designed terrestrial sampling strategies to provide estimations also on the level of administrative units such as forest districts. This may suffice for economic assessments, but still fails to provide spatially explicit information on the distribution of timber volume within these management units. This type of information, however, is needed for decision-makers to design and implement appropriate management operations. The German federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate is currently implementing an object-oriented database that will also allow the direct integration of Earth observation data products. This work analyzes the suitability of forthcoming multi- and hyperspectral satellite imaging systems for producing local distribution maps for timber volume of Norway spruce, one of the most economically important tree species. In combination with site-specific inventory data, fully processed hyperspectral data sets (HyMap were used to simulate datasets of the forthcoming EnMAP and Sentinel-2 systems to establish adequate models for estimating timber volume maps. The analysis included PLS regression and the k-NN method. Root Mean Square Errors between 21.6% and 26.5% were obtained, where k-NN performed slightly better than PLSR. It was concluded that the datasets of both simulated sensor systems fulfill accuracy requirements to support local forest management operations and could be used in synergy. Sentinel-2 can provide meaningful volume distribution maps in higher geometric resolution, while EnMAP, due to its hyperspectral coverage, can contribute complementary information, e.g., on biophysical conditions.

  3. Assessing the Sensitivity of a Reservoir Management System Under Plausible Assumptions About Future Climate Over Seasons to Decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, M. N.; Brown, C. M.; Baroang, K. M.; Kaheil, Y. H.

    2011-12-01

    We illustrate an analysis procedure that explores the robustness and overall productivity of a reservoir management system under plausible assumptions about climate fluctuation and change. Results are presented based on a stylized version of a multi-use reservoir management model adapted from Angat Dam, Philippines. It represents a modest-sized seasonal storage reservoir in a climate with a pronounced dry season. The reservoir management model focuses on October-March, during which climatological inflow declines due to the arrival of the dry season, and reservoir management becomes critical and challenging. Inflow is assumed to be impacted by climate fluctuations representing interannal variation (white noise), decadal to multidecadal variation (MDV, here represented by a stochastic autoregressive process) and global change (GC), here represented by a systematic linear trend in seasonal inflow total over the simulation period of 2008-2047. Reservoir reliability, and risk of extreme persistent water shortfall, is assessed under different combinations and magnitudes of GC and MDV. We include an illustration of adaptive management, using seasonal forecasts and updated climate normals. A set of seasonal forecast and observed inflow values are generated for 2008-2047 by randomly rearranging the forecast-observed pairs for 1968-2007. Then, trends are imposed on the observed series, with differing assumptions about the extent to which the seasonal forecasts can be expected to track the trend. We consider the framework presented here well-suited to providing insights about managing the climate risks in reservoir operations, providing guidance on expected benefits and risks of different strategies and climate scenarios.

  4. Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sproles, Eric A.; Roth, Travis R.; Nolin, Anne W.

    2017-02-01

    In the Pacific Northwest, USA, the extraordinarily low snowpacks of winters 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 stressed regional water resources and the social-environmental system. We introduce two new approaches to better understand how seasonal snow water storage during these two winters would compare to snow water storage under warmer climate conditions. The first approach calculates a spatial-probabilistic metric representing the likelihood that the snow water storage of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 would occur under +2 °C perturbed climate conditions. We computed snow water storage (basin-wide and across elevations) and the ratio of snow water equivalent to cumulative precipitation (across elevations) for the McKenzie River basin (3041 km2), a major tributary to the Willamette River in Oregon, USA. We applied these computations to calculate the occurrence probability for similarly low snow water storage under climate warming. Results suggest that, relative to +2 °C conditions, basin-wide snow water storage during winter 2013-2014 would be above average, while that of winter 2014-2015 would be far below average. Snow water storage on 1 April corresponds to a 42 % (2013-2014) and 92 % (2014-2015) probability of being met or exceeded in any given year. The second approach introduces the concept of snow analogs to improve the anticipatory capacity of climate change impacts on snow-derived water resources. The use of a spatial-probabilistic approach and snow analogs provide new methods of assessing basin-wide snow water storage in a non-stationary climate and are readily applicable in other snow-dominated watersheds.

  5. Future-Oriented LCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Borup, Mads; Andersen, Per Dannemand

    2017-01-01

    LCA is often applied for decision-making that concerns actions reaching near or far into the future. However, traditional life cycle assessment methodology must be adjusted for the prospective and change-oriented purposes, but no standardised way of doing this has emerged yet. In this chapter some...... challenges are described and some learnings are derived. Many of the future-oriented LCAs published so far perform relatively short-term prediction of simple comparisons. But for more long-term time horizons foresight methods can be of help. Scenarios established by qualified experts about future...... technological and economic developments are indispensable in future technology assessments. The uncertainties in future-oriented LCAs are to a large extent qualitative and it is important to emphasise that LCA of future technologies will provide a set of answers and not ‘the’ answer....

  6. Use of the Pain Assessment Screening Tool and Outcomes Registry in an Army Interdisciplinary Pain Management Center, Lessons Learned and Future Implications of a 10-Month Beta Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Diane M; Cook, Karon; Kallen, Michael; Buckenmaier, Chester; Weickum, Ricke; Collins, Teresa; Johnson, Ashley; Morgan, Dawn; Galloway, Kevin; Joltes, Kristin

    2017-03-01

    The U.S. Army Comprehensive Pain Management Campaign Plan was launched in 2010 to improve pain outcomes in military populations. Interdisciplinary Pain Management Centers (IPMCs) were established at every Army medical center, each offering a robust array of treatment options including conventional and complementary and integrative medicine (CIM) pain management therapies. The Pain Assessment Screening Tool and Outcomes Registry (PASTOR) was developed to assess and track biopsychosocial aspects of pain management and to identify best treatment practices. During a 10-month pilot test of PASTOR at one Army IPMC, active duty patients completed PASTOR at baseline and at significant junctures during their therapeutic course. 322 IPMC patients completed baseline and follow-up PASTOR assessments. The PASTOR outcomes were analyzed for patients who completed a 3- to 6-week CIM program, a 3-week functional restoration program, or both. For most PASTOR domains, a greater proportion of patients who completed both programs reported important improvement compared with patients who completed either program alone. This pilot test demonstrated the utility of using PASTOR in a military IPMC to track biopsychosocial treatment outcomes. These preliminary data will inform future comparative effectiveness analyses of pain therapies among military and veteran populations. Reprint & Copyright © 2017 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  7. Simulation-based assessment of the viability of future heat and power sources for the UK domestic sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, N. [Strathclyde Univ., Glasgow, Scotland (United Kingdom). Energy Systems Research Unit

    2005-07-01

    Changes in the way energy is supplied, including fuel mix substitution and more heat and power production from nuclear power or renewable energy sources, will be required in order for the United Kingdom to reach its target of a 60 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 values. Changes will also be required in energy supply, including improvement in energy efficiency and the use of micro heat and power technologies such as photovoltaics (PV), fuel cells, micro wind power, micro-combined heat and power (CHP) and heat pumps. These technologies are cited as one means of reducing carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. The domestic sector, driven by human health needs and the development of energy efficient buildings, can have a significant impact on energy use. Simulation can play an important role in analyzing the impact of such issues. This paper discussed the use of modeling in assessing the demand for heat and power coupled with the performance of local energy supply systems and quantifying any resulting environmental benefits. Simulation can evaluate whether micro-generation will produce environmental savings, given the likely increase in production of electricity from centralized renewable sources such as wind and tidal power. It can also evaluate the levels of efficiency required to produced the savings and whether they are feasible. The performance of the 4 different technologies was analyzed using simulation to find minimum thermodynamic performance criteria required to produce environmental and economic advantages over conventional domestic energy supplies. It was noted the study provides insight into the fundamental viability of each of the 4 technologies but more work is required on energy storage and more complex control strategies before drawing final conclusions. A fixed CO{sub 2} emissions coefficient was assumed in this paper, but in reality, this will vary over time as different central power sources come on and off line

  8. Quality and impact assessment in new geoscience communication : future perspectives through digital communication and Big Data exploration techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicari, Rosa; Schertzer, Daniel; Deutsch, Jean-Claude; Moilleron, Regis

    2015-04-01

    Since 1990s up to now, climate and environmental science communication has gradually become a priority of policy programmes, a consolidated subject of training and education, a developed and greatly expanded field of professional practices. However, in contrast to this very fast evolution there is presumably a deficit in terms of research and reflection on objective tools to assess the quality and impact of communication activities. The quality of communication in the field of science has become more and more challenging due to the fact that the role of traditional mediators (e.g. well reputed newspapers or broadcasters, science museums), that used to be considered quality guarantors, has now become marginal. Today, a new generation of communication professionals tend to be employed by research institutes to respond to a stronger request to develop accountable research projects, to increase transparency and trust and to disseminate and implementation of research findings. This research aims to understand how communication strategies, addressed to the general public, can optimise the impact of research findings in hydrology for resilient cities. The research will greatly benefit from the development of automated analysis of unstructured Big Data that allows the exploration of huge amounts of digital communication data: blogs, social networks postings, public speeches, press releases, publications, articles... Furthermore, these techniques facilitate the crossing of socio-economic and physical-environmental data and possibly lead to the identification of existing correlations. Case studies correspond to those of several research projects under the umbrella of the Chair "Hydrology for resilient cities" aimed to develop and test new solutions in urban hydrology that will contribute to the resilience of our cities to extreme weather. This research was initiated in the framework of the Interreg IVB project RAINGAIN and pursued in the project Blue Green Dream of the EU

  9. A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    solicited to construct these scenarios.The methods for mapping the current LULC and ecosystem disturbances will require the extensive use of both remote-sensing data and field-survey data (for example, forest inventories) to capture and characterize landscape-changing events. For potential LULC changes and ecosystem disturbances, key drivers such as socioeconomic and climate changes will be used in addition to the biophysical data. The result of these analyses will be a series of maps for each future year for each scenario. These annual maps will form the basis for estimating carbon storage and GHG emissions. For terrestrial ecosystems, carbon storage, carbon-sequestration capacities, and GHG emissions under the present conditions and future scenarios will be assessed using the LULC-change and ecosystem-disturbance estimates in map format with a spatially explicit biogeochemical ensemble modeling system that incorporates properties of management activities (such as tillage or harvesting) and properties of individual ecosystems (such as energy exchange, vegetation characteristics, hydrological cycling, and soil attributes). For aquatic ecosystems, carbon burial in sediments and fluxes of GHG are functions of the present and future potential stream flow and sediment transport and will be assessed using empirical hydrological modeling methods. Validation and uncertainty analysis methods described in the methodology will follow established guidelines to assess the quality of the assessment results.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Level II ecoregions map will be the practical instrument for developing and delivering assessment results. Consequently, the ecoregion (there are 22 modified ecoregions) will be the reporting unit of the assessment because the scenarios, assessment results, validation, and uncertainty analysis will be produced at that scale. The implementation of these methods will require collaborations among various Federal agencies, State agencies

  10. An outline of a risk assessment-based system of meat safety assurance and its future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berends, B R; van Knapen, F

    1999-10-01

    Discussed are the outlines of a risk assessment-based system of meat safety assurance to replace the current meat inspection. An example of a system that uses the Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points (HACCP)-principles in the entire production chain from stable to table is also given. Continuous evaluation of risks is the main driving force of the new system. Only then the system has the means to remain flexible and provide for the data necessary to convince trade partners that the products they buy are safe. A monitoring system that keeps track of the important health hazards in the entire chain from stable to table is therefore necessary. This includes monitoring of cases of disease in the human population caused by the hazardous agents of concern. Coordination of the monitoring and control and processing of the information is done by an independent body. Furthermore, the system demands a production from stable to table that is based on the ideas of Integrated Quality Control (IQC), HACCP, and certification of production processes and quality control procedures. Clear legislation provides for criteria about acceptable or unacceptable health risks for the consumer and determines at what moments which risks should be controlled by the producers. Simultaneously, the legislation has to be flexible enough to be able to adapt quickly to any changes in risks, or in the way risks should be controlled. In the new system current meat inspection can easily be carried out by employees of the slaughter houses and is no longer a direct responsibility of the authorities. The authorities only demand certain safety levels and verify whether producers stick to these. Producers remain fully responsible for the safety and quality of their products, and fully liable in case of any damage to the consumers' health. However, it is to be expected that some EU Member-States miss the organizational and agricultural basis for a successful application of the new system. Consequences

  11. Effects of scale and input data on assessing the future impacts of coastal flooding: An application of DIVA for the Emilia-Romagna coast.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia eWolff

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper assess sea-level rise related coastal flood impacts for Emilia-Romagna (Italy using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA modeling framework and investigate the sensitivity of the model to four uncertainty dimensions, namely (1 elevation, (2 population (3 vertical land movement (4 scale and resolution of assessment. A one-driver-at-a-time sensitivity approach is used in order to explore and quantify the effects of uncertainties in input data and assessment scale on model outputs. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of flood risk estimates when using datasets of different resolution. The change in assessment scale is implemented through the use of a more detailed digital coastline and input data for the coastline segmentation process. This change leads to a 35-fold increase in the number of coastal segments and in a more realistic spatial representation of coastal flood impacts for the Emilia-Romagna coast. Furthermore, the coastline length increases by 43%, considerably influencing adaptation costs (construction of dikes. With respect to input data our results show that by the end of the century coastal flood impacts are more sensitive to variations in elevation and vertical land movement data than to variations in population data in the study area. The inclusion of local information on human induced subsidence rates increases the relative sea-level by 60cm in 2100, resulting in coastal flood impacts that are up to 25% higher compared to those generated with the global DIVA values, which mainly account for natural processes. The choice of one elevation model over another can result in differences of approximately 45% of the coastal floodplain extent and up to 50% in flood damages by 2100. Our results emphasize that the scale of assessment and resolution of the input data can have significant implications for the results of coastal flood impact assessments. Understanding and communicating these implications is

  12. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2015-01-01

    will be a sea-battle tomorrow” could serve as standard examples. What could be called the problem of future contingents concerns how to ascribe truth-values to such statements. If there are several possible decisions out of which one is going to be made freely tomorrow, can there be a truth now about which one......, ‘future contingents’ could also refer to future contingent objects. A statement like “The first astronaut to go to Mars will have a unique experience” could be analyzed as referring to an object not yet existing, supposing that one day in the distant future some person will indeed travel to Mars......, but that person has not yet been born. The notion of ‘future contingent objects’ involves important philosophical questions, for instance the issue of ethical obligations towards future generations, quantification over ‘future contingent objects’ etc. However, this entry is confined to the study of future...

  13. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2011-01-01

    will be a sea-battle tomorrow” could serve as standard examples. What could be called the problem of future contingents concerns how to ascribe truth-values to such statements. If there are several possible decisions out of which one is going to be made freely tomorrow, can there be a truth now about which one......, ‘future contingents’ could also refer to future contingent objects. A statement like “The first astronaut to go to Mars will have a unique experience” could be analyzed as referring to an object not yet existing, supposing that one day in the distant future some person will indeed travel to Mars......, but that person has not yet been born. The notion of ‘future contingent objects’ involves important philosophical questions, for instance the issue of ethical obligations towards future generations, quantification over ‘future contingent objects’ etc. However, this entry is confined to the study of future...

  14. Future accelerators (?)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Womersley

    2003-08-21

    I describe the future accelerator facilities that are currently foreseen for electroweak scale physics, neutrino physics, and nuclear structure. I will explore the physics justification for these machines, and suggest how the case for future accelerators can be made.

  15. Uncertainty and extreme events in future climate and hydrologic projections for the Pacific Northwest: providing a basis for vulnerability and core/corridor assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, Jeremy S.; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Salathe, Eric P.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Stumbaugh, Matt R.; Elsner, Marketa; Norheim, Robert; Lutz, Eric R.; Mantua, Nathan J.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-consistent set of downscaled projections across the Western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections – in particular for extreme events – is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models and a comparison with dynamical downscaling) and includes an assessment of changes to flow and soil moisture extremes. This new information can be used to assess variations in impacts across the landscape, uncertainty in projections, and how these differ as a function of region, variable, and time period. In this project, existing University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG) products were extended to develop a comprehensive data archive that accounts (in a reigorous and physically based way) for climate model uncertainty in future climate and hydrologic scenarios. These products can be used to determine likely impacts on vegetation and aquatic habitat in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, including WA, OR, ID, northwest MT to the continental divide, northern CA, NV, UT, and the Columbia Basin portion of western WY New data series and summaries produced for this project include: 1) extreme statistics for surface hydrology (e.g. frequency of soil moisture and summer water deficit) and streamflow (e.g. the 100-year flood, extreme 7-day low flows with a 10-year recurrence interval); 2) snowpack vulnerability as indicated by the ratio of April 1 snow water to cool-season precipitation; and, 3) uncertainty analyses for multiple climate

  16. Old Dog New Tricks: Use of Point-based Crop Models in Grid-based Regional Assessment of Crop Management Technologies Impact on Future Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, J.; Wood, S.; Cenacchi, N.; Fisher, M.; Cox, C.

    2012-12-01

    HarvestChoice (harvestchoice.org) generates knowledge products to guide strategic investments to improve the productivity and profitability of smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A keynote component of the HarvestChoice analytical framework is a grid-based overlay of SSA - a cropping simulation platform powered by process-based, crop models. Calibrated around the best available representation of cropping production systems in SSA, the simulation platform engages the DSSAT Crop Systems Model with the CENTURY Soil Organic Matter model (DSSAT-CENTURY) and provides a virtual experimentation module with which to explore the impact of a range of technological, managerial and environmental metrics on future crop productivity and profitability, as well as input use. For each of 5 (or 30) arc-minute grid cells in SSA, a stack of model input underlies it: datasets that cover soil properties and fertility, historic and future climate scenarios and farmers' management practices; all compiled from analyses of existing global and regional databases and consultations with other CGIAR centers. Running a simulation model is not always straightforward, especially when certain cropping systems or management practices are not even practiced by resource-poor farmers yet (e.g., precision agriculture) or they were never included in the existing simulation framework (e.g., water harvesting). In such cases, we used DSSAT-CENTURY as a function to iteratively estimate relative responses of cropping systems to technology-driven changes in water and nutrient balances compared to zero-adoption by farmers, while adjusting model input parameters to best mimic farmers' implementation of technologies in the field. We then fed the results of the simulation into to the economic and food trade model framework, IMPACT, to assess the potential implications on future food security. The outputs of the overall simulation analyses are packaged as a web-accessible database and published

  17. Development of integrated scenarios to assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity in the Mediterranean - perspectives from the GLOBAQUA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber-Garcia, Verena; Akinsete, Ebun; Gampe, David; Ker Rault, Philippe; Kok, Kasper; Koundouri, Phoebe; Luttik, Joke; Nikulin, Grigory; Pistocchi, Alberto; Souliotis, Ioannis; Ludwig, Ralf

    2017-04-01

    systems experience this and a worsening of the situation can be expected if actions are not taken. To assess future conditions, spatially distributed, integrated scenarios to drive various impact models are inevitable. These simulations then assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems, both in water quality and quantity, and in the end provide decision support. To achieve this goal, a modeling framework is set up to develop integrated scenarios of changes in climate, land use and water management. These scenarios are based on storylines around various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), as established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and developed in collaboration with project partners and experts. Major challenges stem from the downscaling of these to the regional scale. Projections of future climate conditions originate from the simulations provided through the EURO-CORDEX project. An ensemble of different General Circulation Models (GCMs) driving various Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is available. After a thorough investigation of these projections and an estimation of the uncertainty envelope, a small subset of models was chosen in a carefully conducted selection procedure, following a cluster analysis. These selected simulations were downscaled to better represent the regional conditions and provide the implications of the RCPs in the storylines. The impacts of the SSPs are represented in spatially distributed land use maps developed through the land use change model iCLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects). In a first step knowledge on past land use change is required and an analysis was carried out based on the CORINE land cover data. Extensive expert surveys have been conducted in the case study areas to determine the most important drivers of these changes, considering both, biophysical and socio-economic variables. The results of these were implemented in iCLUE taking into account

  18. Physiotherapists Have Accurate Expectations of Their Patients’ Future Health-Related Quality of Life after First Assessment in a Subacute Rehabilitation Setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven M. McPhail

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Expectations held by health professionals and their patients are likely to affect treatment choices in subacute inpatient rehabilitation settings for older adults. There is a scarcity of empirical evidence evaluating whether health professionals expectations of the quality of their patients’ future health states are accurate. Methods. A prospective longitudinal cohort investigation was implemented to examine agreement (kappa coefficients, exact agreement, limits-of-agreement, and intraclass-correlation coefficients between physiotherapists’ (n=23 prediction of patients’ discharge health-related quality of life (reported on the EQ-5D-3L and the actual health-related quality of life self-reported by patients (n=272 at their discharge assessment (using the EQ-5D-3L. The mini-mental state examination was used as an indicator of patients’ cognitive ability. Results. Overall, 232 (85% patients had all assessment data completed and were included in analysis. Kappa coefficients (exact agreement ranged between 0.37–0.57 (58%–83% across EQ-5D-3L domains in the lower cognition group and 0.53–0.68 (81%–85% in the better cognition group. Conclusions. Physiotherapists in this subacute rehabilitation setting predicted their patients’ discharge health-related quality of life with substantial accuracy. Physiotherapists are likely able to provide their patients with sound information regarding potential recovery and health-related quality of life on discharge. The prediction accuracy was higher among patients with better cognition than patients with poorer cognition.

  19. The Future Is Performance Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Dan

    2017-01-01

    As more people question the value of standardized testing, the public appetite for a change in the accountability system grows. A 2016 national survey found that "voters consider standardized tests the least important factor in measuring the performance of students," preferring instead to have a multiple-measures data dashboard of…

  20. The crysophere as a resource and hazard - Integrated framework for the assessment of future water resource vulnerability and glacial hazard risk assessment in the Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Simon; Awasthi, Kirtiman; Ballesteros, Juan Antonio; Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Kahn, Mustafa; Linsbauer, Andreas; Rohrer, Mario; Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Salzmann, Nadine; Schauwecker, Simone; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-05-01

    High mountain environments are particularly susceptible to changes in atmospheric temperature and precipitation patterns, owing to the sensitivity of cryospheric components to melting conditions, and the importance of rainfall and river runoff for sustaining crops and livelihoods. The Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (population ca. 6 mil.) is the initial focus of a joint program between the governments of India and Switzerland aiming to build scientific capacity to understand the threat, and plan for adaptation to climate change in the Himalaya. Here we focus on the cryosphere, and provide an overview of the integrated framework we will follow to assess future water resource vulnerability from changes in runoff, and assess future disaster risk from mass movement and flood hazards. At this early stage of our project, we aim to identify key methodological steps, data requirements, and related challenges. The initial implementation of our framework will be centered on the Kullu district. Core and integrative components of both the traditional climate vulnerability framework (eg., IPCC AR4), and the vulnerability and risk concepts of the disaster risk management community (eg., IPCC SREX 2012) include the assessment of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity to water vulnerability in the Kullu district requires the quantification of current and future water resource usage at the block or community level, using metrics such as total irrigated land area, total electricity usage, population density and birth rates. Within the disaster risk framework, sensitivity to mass movement and flood hazards will be determined based on factors such as population density and demographics (notably age and gender), strength of building materials etc. Projected temperature and precipitation data from regional climate model output will be used to model changes in melt water runoff and streamflow, determining the exposure of communities and natural systems to future

  1. Quantitative assessment of future development of cooper/silver resources in the Kootenai National Forest, Idaho/Montana: Part I-Estimation of the copper and silver endowments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanski, G.T.

    1992-01-01

    Faced with an ever-increasing diversity of demand for the use of public lands, managers and planners are turning more often to a multiple-use approach to meet those demands. This approach requires the uses to be mutually compatible and to utilize the more valuable attributes or resource values of the land. Therefore, it is imperative that planners be provided with all available information on attribute and resource values in a timely fashion and in a format that facilitates a comparative evaluation. The Kootenai National Forest administration enlisted the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Bureau of Mines to perform a quantitative assessment of future copper/silver production potential within the forest from sediment-hosted copper deposits in the Revett Formation that are similar to those being mined at the Troy Mine near Spar Lake. The U.S. Geological Survey employed a quantitative assessment technique that compared the favorable host terrane in the Kootenai area with worldwide examples of known sediment-hosted copper deposits. The assessment produced probabilistic estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits that may be present in the area and of the copper and silver endowment that might be contained in them. Results of the assessment suggest that the copper/silver deposit potential is highest in the southwestern one-third of the forest. In this area there is an estimated 50 percent probability of at least 50 additional deposits occurring mostly within approximately 260,000 acres where the Revett Formation is thought to be present in the subsurface at depths of less than 1,500 meters. A Monte Carlo type simulation using data on the grade and tonnage characteristics of other known silver-rich, sediment-hosted copper deposits predicts a 50 percent probability that these undiscovered deposits will contain at least 19 million tonnes of copper and 100,000 tonnes of silver. Combined with endowments estimated for identified, but not thoroughly explored deposits, and

  2. Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

    2016-05-15

    For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

  3. Evaluating hydrological response of future land cover change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    William G. Kepner; I. Shea Burns; David C. Goodrich; D. Phillip Guertin; Gabriel S. Sidman; Lainie R. Levick; Wison W.S. Yee; Melissa M.A. Scianni; Clifton S. Meek; Jared B. Vollmer

    2016-01-01

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. Future growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal...

  4. Preliminary seismic hazard assessment, shallow seismic refraction and resistivity sounding studies for future urban planning at the Gebel Umm Baraqa area, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Mohamed H.; Hanafy, Sherif M.; Gamal, Mohamed A.

    2008-12-01

    Gebel Umm Baraqa Fan, west Gulf of Aqaba, Sinai, is one of the most important tourism areas in Egypt. However, it is located on the active Dead Sea-Gulf of Aqaba Levant transform fault system. Geophysical studies, including fresh water aquifer delineation, shallow seismic refraction, soil characterization and preliminary seismic hazard assessment, were conducted to help in future city planning. A total of 11 vertical electrical soundings (1000-3000 m maximum AB/2) and three bore-holes were drilled in the site for the analysis of ground water, total dissolved solids (TDS) and fresh water aquifer properties. The interpretation of the one-dimensional (1D) inversion of the resistivity data delineated the fresh water aquifer and determined its hydro-geologic parameters. Eleven shallow seismic refraction profiles (125 m in length) have been collected and interpreted using the generalized reciprocal method, and the resulting depth-velocity models were verified using an advanced finite difference (FD) technique. Shallow seismic refraction effectively delineates two subsurface layers (VP ~ 450 m s-1 and VP ~ 1000 m s-1). A preliminary seismic hazard assessment in Umm Baraqa has produced an estimate of the probabilistic peak ground acceleration hazard in the study area. A recent and historical earthquake catalog for the time period 2200 BC to 2006 has been compiled for the area. New accurate seismic source zoning is considered because such details affect the degree of hazard in the city. The estimated amount of PGA reveals values ranging from 250 to 260 cm s-2 in the bedrock of the Umm Baraqa area during a 100 year interval (a suitable time window for buildings). Recommendations as to suitable types of buildings, considering the amount of shaking and the aquifer properties given in this study, are expected to be helpful for the Umm Baraqa area.

  5. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Future Textiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anne-Louise Degn; Jensen, Hanne Troels Fusvad; Hansen, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Magasinet Future Textiles samler resultaterne fra projektet Future Textiles, der markedsfører området intelligente tekstiler. I magasinet kan man læse om trends, drivkræfter, udfordringer samt få ideer til nye produkter inden for intelligente tekstiler. Områder som bæredygtighed og kundetilpasning...

  7. Assessment of regional-scale primary production in terrestrial ecosystems to estimate the possible influence of future climate change on biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Hibiki; Nishina, Kazuya; Ito, Akihiko

    2015-04-01

    In recent decades, climate change including global warming has progressed worldwide and their influences on ecosystem structure and function that provide various goods and services to humans' well-being are of the greatest concerns. The ecosystem function and services are tightly coupled with the biodiversity particularly via food web and biogeochemical cycles, and here carbon is one of the central elements that also affect atmospheric CO2 concentration. Therefore mechanistic and quantitative understandings of the consequences among on-going climate change, ecosystem function, and biodiversity are urgent issues for seeking a better adaptation strategy. In order to tackle such tasks in the current environmental and ecological sciences, efforts have been made by numerous scientists and/or organizations to clarify the current status of and threats to biodiversity, responses of biogeochemical cycles to meteorological variables, and to construct climate change scenarios considering economic activities. However, to gain insights into the possible influence of climate change on biodiversity via altered ecosystem functions over broad temporal and spatial scales ranging from past to near-future periods and from landscape to global scales, further efforts to find the consequences are required, since the assessment of the influence of climate change on biodiversity is straightforward but difficult. For decades in climate change science, carbon flux between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems has attracted intensive attention as it connects the atmosphere and biosphere. Carbon flux in the biosphere is not only a process of biogeochemical material flux but also is an element to drive biological and ecological processes in ecosystems via food web beginning from photosynthetic carbon fixation by plants. Therefore focusing on photosynthetic production by plants, i.e. primary production of the ecosystem, may help us to estimate the possible influence of climate change on

  8. The European Organization for Research and Treatment for Cancer (EORTC) strategy for quality assurance in surgical clinical research: Assessment of the past and moving towards the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanis, E; Caballero, C; Collette, L; Verleye, L; den Dulk, M; Lacombe, D; Schuhmacher, C; Werutsky, G

    2016-08-01

    Quality assurance (QA) in a surgical trial must be planned and implemented from study development to completion. Elements of quality must be consistently described in a protocols, case report forms (CRFs) and reported in publications. The purpose of this review was to evaluate the most common surgical parameters and how consistently they were described in EORTC study documents where surgery was included. This was the preliminary step in mapping out the challenges of developing a surgical QA strategy in EORTC. A systematic review of EORTC surgical protocols from 1980 to 2013 was performed. Two independent reviewers selected and reviewed the protocols. Data extraction was done using a questionnaire developed by EORTC QA committee. The results were compared across the time period. The most common quality parameters described in protocols were surgical technique, definition of resectability, surgical margins and methods of assessing adverse events using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Event (CTCAE). However, these were not consistently reported in publications. A general improvement in the method of protocol development was observed since year 2000 after standardization measures by EORTC. A new surgical chapter template has been proposed. There is a need to consistently define and report surgical parameters from protocol development to publication as a first step to QA. A standard surgical chapter in the EORTC protocol template can help address this need. A framework to consistently implement QA for future surgical trials is needed and the rationale for this is described in this review. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. THE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF JULY 21, 365 AD IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA - Review of Impact on the Ancient World - Assessment of Recurrence and Future Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available There is ample evidence indicating that on July 21, 365 AD a great earthquake near the west coast of the Island of Crete generated a mega-tsunami, which was responsible for extensive destruction throughout the Eastern Mediterranean, but particularly on Peloponnesus, the Greek Islands, Sicily, Libya, Cyprus, Palestine and Egypt. It is believed that the combined catastrophic impacts of the earthquake and tsunami were significant catalysts in furthering the declination of the Roman Empire and contributing to its subsequent final division between the East Roman and the West (Byzantine empires in 395 A.D. In view of subsequent earthquakes and tsunamis in the region and the high probability that a similar great disaster will occur again, the present study reviews and summarizes the seismo-tectonic and kinematic characteristics of the Aegean and Anatolian micro-plates, their interaction with the African and Eurasian tectonic plates and examines and evaluates the historical records pertaining to this 4th Century AD disaster as to the destructive impact it had on the ancient world. Additionally, the study reconciles the impact described in historical and recent records with results obtained by numerical modeling studies, provides a rough estimate of the recurrence frequency of great tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean region and assesses what the future impact may be in view of great increases in population densities along coastal areas.

  10. Assessment of past, present and future health-cost externalities of air pollution in Europe and the contribution from international ship traffic using the EVA model system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, J.; Silver, J. D.; Christensen, J. H.; Andersen, M. S.; Bønløkke, J. H.; Sigsgaard, T.; Geels, C.; Gross, A.; Hansen, A. B.; Hansen, K. M.; Hedegaard, G. B.; Kaas, E.; Frohn, L. M.

    2013-08-01

    An integrated model system, EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), based on the impact-pathway chain has been developed to assess the health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The model system can be used to support policy-making with respect to emission control. In this study, we apply the EVA system to Europe, and perform a more detailed assessment of past, present, and future health-cost externalities of the total air pollution levels in Europe (including both natural and anthropogenic sources), represented by the years 2000, 2007, 2011, and 2020. We also assess the contribution to the health-related external costs from international ship traffic with special attention to the international ship traffic in the Baltic and North seas, since special regulatory actions on sulfur emissions, called SECA (sulfur emission control area), have been introduced in these areas. We conclude that, despite efficient regulatory actions in Europe in recent decades, air pollution still constitutes a serious problem for human health. Hence the related external costs are considerable. The total health-related external costs for the whole of Europe are estimated at 803 bn euros yr-1 for the year 2000, decreasing to 537 bn euros yr-1 in the year 2020. We estimate the total number of premature deaths in Europe in the year 2000 due to air pollution to be around 680 000 yr-1, decreasing to approximately 450 000 in the year 2020. The contribution from international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere was estimated to 7% of the total health-related external costs in Europe in the year 2000, increasing to 12% in the year 2020. In contrast, the contribution from international ship traffic in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea decreases 36% due to the regulatory efforts of reducing sulfur emissions from ship traffic in SECA. Introducing this regulatory instrument for all international ship traffic in the Northern

  11. Assessment of past, present and future health-cost externalities of air pollution in Europe and the contribution from international ship traffic using the EVA model system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Brandt

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available An integrated model system, EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution, based on the impact-pathway chain has been developed to assess the health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The model system can be used to support policy-making with respect to emission control. In this study, we apply the EVA system to Europe, and perform a more detailed assessment of past, present, and future health-cost externalities of the total air pollution levels in Europe (including both natural and anthropogenic sources, represented by the years 2000, 2007, 2011, and 2020. We also assess the contribution to the health-related external costs from international ship traffic with special attention to the international ship traffic in the Baltic and North seas, since special regulatory actions on sulfur emissions, called SECA (sulfur emission control area, have been introduced in these areas. We conclude that, despite efficient regulatory actions in Europe in recent decades, air pollution still constitutes a serious problem for human health. Hence the related external costs are considerable. The total health-related external costs for the whole of Europe are estimated at 803 bn euros yr−1 for the year 2000, decreasing to 537 bn euros yr−1 in the year 2020. We estimate the total number of premature deaths in Europe in the year 2000 due to air pollution to be around 680 000 yr−1, decreasing to approximately 450 000 in the year 2020. The contribution from international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere was estimated to 7% of the total health-related external costs in Europe in the year 2000, increasing to 12% in the year 2020. In contrast, the contribution from international ship traffic in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea decreases 36% due to the regulatory efforts of reducing sulfur emissions from ship traffic in SECA. Introducing this regulatory instrument for all international ship traffic in

  12. Assessment of past, present and future health-cost externalities of air pollution in Europe and the contribution from international ship traffic using the EVA model system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Brandt

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available An integrated model system, EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution, based on the impact-pathway chain has been developed, to assess the health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The model system can be used to support policy-making with respect to emission control. In this study, we apply the EVA system to Europe, and perform a more detailed assessment of past, present, and future health-cost externalities of the total air pollution levels in Europe (including both natural and anthropogenic sources, represented by the years 2000, 2007, 2011, and 2020. We also assess the contribution to the health-related external costs from international ship traffic with special attention to the international ship traffic in the Baltic and North Seas, since special regulatory actions on sulphur emissions, called SECA (sulphur emission control area, have been introduced in these areas,. We conclude that despite efficient regulatory actions in Europe in recent decades, air pollution still constitutes a serious problem to human health, hence the related external costs are considerable. The total health-related external costs for the whole of Europe is estimated at 803 bn Euro yr−1 for the year 2000, decreasing to 537 bn Euro yr−1 in the year 2020. We estimate the total number of premature deaths in Europe in the year 2000 due to air pollution to be around 680 000 yr−1, decreasing to approximately 450 000 in the year 2020. The contribution from international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere was estimated to 7% of the total health-related external costs in Europe in the year 2000, increasing to 12% in the year 2020. In contrast, the contribution from international ship traffic in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea decreases 36% due to the regulatory efforts of reducing sulphur emissions from ship traffic in SECA. Introducing this regulatory instrument for all international ship traffic in

  13. Water Resources Status and Availability Assessment in Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios for Beas River Basin of North Western Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, S. P.; Thakur, P. K.; Garg, V.; Nikam, B. R.; Chouksey, A.; Dhote, P.; Bhattacharya, T.

    2016-10-01

    The water resources status and availability of any river basin is of primary importance for overall and sustainable development of any river basin. This study has been done in Beas river basin which is located in North Western Himalaya for assessing the status of water resources in present and future climate change scenarios. In this study hydrological modelling approach has been used for quantifying the water balance components of Beas river basin upto Pandoh. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model has been used in energy balance mode for Beas river basin at 1km grid scale. The VIC model has been run with snow elevation zones files to simulate the snow module of VIC. The model was run with National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forcing data (Tmax, Tmin, Rainfall and wind speed at 0.5degree resolution) from 1 Jan. 1999 to 31 Dec 2006 for calibration purpose. The additional component of glacier melt was added into overall river runoff using semi-empirical approach utilizing air temperature and glacier type and extent data. The ground water component is computed from overall recharge of ground water by water balance approach. The overall water balance approach is validated with river discharge data provided by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) from 1994-2014. VIC routing module was used to assess pixel wise flow availability at daily, monthly and annual time scales. The mean monthly flow at Pandoh during study period varied from 19 - 1581 m3/s from VIC and 50 to 1556 m3/sec from observation data, with minimum water flow occurring in month of January and maximum flow in month of August with annual R2 of 0.68. The future climate change data is taken from CORDEX database. The climate model of NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M for IPCC RCP scenario 4.5 and 8.5 were used for South Asia at 0.44 deg. grid from year 2006 to 2100. The climate forcing data for VIC model was prepared using daily maximum and minimum near surface air temperature, daily precipitation and

  14. Prospects and risks of future network-bound supply systems. A multi-criteria procedure for the assessment of future scenarios; Chancen und Risiken zukuenftiger netzgebundener Versorgung. Ein multi-kriterielles Verfahren zur Bewertung von Zukunftsszenarien

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karger, C.R.; Hennings, W.; Jaeger, T.

    2006-07-01

    Shaping the developments of network-based supply systems is a difficult challenge in the context of preparing for the future. The structures for supplying the public with the basic goods electricity, gas and water, and also telecommunication services, have become the subject of public debates. A sustainable future for the supplies is being sought: measures for protecting the climate have been requested; citizens have committed themselves to opposing not only planned power stations, and coal mining, but also wind power plants; energy resources like coal, oil and natural gas are becoming scarce and expensive. At the same time, the supply utilities must meet the challenges of privatization, market openings and globalization. The pressure of high costs necessitates savings. The question is which choices are open within the framework of these determining factors. Setting the course for a sustainable future supply means that a method is needed for diagnosing the opportunities and risks of future developments as early as possible and for leveling out promising paths. The bases upon which decisions are made should be as transparent as possible and hence be easy to understand and put into action. lt is against this background that this study looks at specific options for the future and uses this as a basis for developing a method which tries to answer the question ''What is it that we want?''. It is not about an abstract discussion of the sustainability of future supplies or the contribution of specific technologies to sustainability, but about views of the future of supplies with respect to all societal aspects, with reference to which specific objectives are discussed, the pros and cons of which are weighed up, and regarding which the expected conflicts and potentials for reaching a consensus are leveled out. The essential features of this method are the multiple stages involved and the inclusion of science and society. Scientific and societal actors

  15. One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Hejazi, M.; Tesfa, T.; Li, H.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Leung, L. R.

    2013-11-01

    An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven by socioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology-routing-water resources management model. To reconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climate change in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in the changes of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demand have effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes in demand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the land surface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit (unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by the change in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework shows that supply deficit over the Missouri River

  16. Future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, Robert B; Tallarida, Ronald J

    2010-01-01

    The chapters of this book summarize much of what has been done and reported regarding cancer chemotherapy-related cognitive impairment. In this chapter, we point out some future directions for investigation.

  17. Sustainable Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainable Futures is a voluntary program that encourages industry to use predictive models to screen new chemicals early in the development process and offers incentives to companies subject to TSCA section 5.

  18. Robot Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Anja; Grindsted Nielsen, Sally; Jochum, Elizabeth Ann;

    Robots are increasingly used in health care settings, e.g., as homecare assistants and personal companions. One challenge for personal robots in the home is acceptance. We describe an innovative approach to influencing the acceptance of care robots using theatrical performance. Live performance i...... perceive social robots interacting with humans in a future care scenario through a scripted performance. We discuss our methods and initial findings, and outline future work....

  19. Simulation of groundwater flow to assess future withdrawals associated with Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) at Fort George G. Meade, Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Fleming, Brandon J.; Banks, William S.L.; Horn, Marilee A.; Nardi, Mark R.; Andreasen, David C.

    2010-01-01

    Increased groundwater withdrawals from confined aquifers in the Maryland Coastal Plain to supply anticipated growth at Fort George G. Meade (Fort Meade) and surrounding areas resulting from the Department of Defense Base Realignment and Closure Program may have adverse effects in the outcrop or near-outcrop areas. Specifically, increased pumping from the Potomac Group aquifers (principally the Patuxent aquifer) could potentially reduce base flow in small streams below rates necessary for healthy biological functioning. Additionally, water levels may be lowered near, or possibly below, the top of the aquifer within the confined-unconfined transition zone near the outcrop area. A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was created to incorporate and analyze data on water withdrawals, streamflow, and hydraulic head in the region. The model is based on an earlier model developed to assess the effects of future withdrawals from well fields in Anne Arundel County, Maryland and surrounding areas, and includes some of the same features, including model extent, boundary conditions, and vertical discretization (layering). The resolution (horizontal grid discretization) of the earlier model limited its ability to simulate the effects of withdrawals on the outcrop and near-outcrop areas. The model developed for this study included a block-shaped higher-resolution local grid, referred to as the child model, centered on Fort Meade, which was coupled to the coarser-grid parent model using the shared node Local Grid Refinement capability of MODFLOW-LGR. A more detailed stream network was incorporated into the child model. In addition, for part of the transient simulation period, stress periods were reduced in length from 1 year to 3 months, to allow for simulation of the effects of seasonally varying withdrawals and recharge on the groundwater-flow system and simulated streamflow. This required revision of the database on withdrawals and estimation of seasonal variations in

  20. Assessing Current and Future Performance of the Alamitos Gap Seawater Intrusion Barrier with a New Flow and Transport Model, Los Angeles and Orange Counties, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigda, J. M.; Deeds, N.; Jordan, D. L.; Sengebush, R.

    2010-12-01

    Seawater intrusion has threatened aquifers that supply Los Angeles residents since the 1920s, but now millions depend on effective resource management, especially for the four injection barriers. Even with ~6,000 acre-ft/yr injected through the Alamitos Gap barrier, which straddles the San Gabriel River, chloride concentrations have continued to increase in several aquifers inland of the barrier. On behalf of the Orange County Water District, the Water Replenishment District of Southern California, and the Los Angeles Department of Public Works, INTERA created a new flow and solute transport model for permitting, management, and performance assessment of the injection barrier. We devised a new conceptual model, water balance, geologic model, and numerical flow and solute transport models in five months to meet a regulatory deadline. Quickly developing a hydrogeologic framework was challenging because erosion and deposition on the uplifted transgression-regression system of aquitards and aquifers created pathways within the Gap for seawater to travel inland. The pathways, called mergence zones, connect the seawater-intruded Recent Aquifer with several of the deeper aquifers used for water supply. Capturing their locations and geometries was critical to effectively simulating past and future seawater intrusion. We extended the new hydrogeologic framework beyond and below previous frameworks by combining traditional geologic interpretation, GIS analysis, and an innovative geologic modeling software tool. Using the new conceptual and geologic models as a foundation, INTERA constructed a three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model, the Alamitos Barrier Flow Model (ABFM), using the MODFLOW 2000 code. The ABFM was calibrated in three ways: (1) a steady-state calibration to average heads for the 1999-2009 period, (2) transient calibration to the heads observed from 1999 through 2009, and (3) final flow calibration adjustments based on the chloride transport

  1. Transboundary geophysical mapping of geological elements and salinity distribution critical for the assessment of future sea water intrusion in response to sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Jørgensen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Geophysical techniques are increasingly used as tools for characterising the subsurface and they are generally required to develop subsurface models that properly delineate the distribution of aquifers and aquitards, salt/freshwater interfaces and geological structures that affect groundwater flow. In a study area covering 730 km2 across the border between Germany and Denmark a combination of an airborne transient electromagnetic survey (performed with the SkyTEM system, a high-resolution seismic survey and borehole logging has been used in an integrated mapping of important geological, physical and chemical features of the subsurface. The spacing between flight lines is 200–250 m giving a total of about 3200 line km. About 38 km of seismic lines have been collected. Faults bordering a graben structure, deep and shallow buried tunnel valleys, glaciotectonic thrust complexes, marine clay units, and sand aquifers are all examples of geological elements mapped by the geophysical data that control groundwater flow and to some extent hydrochemistry. Additionally, the data provide an excellent picture of the salinity distribution in the area thus providing important information on the fresh-saltwater boundary and the chemical status of groundwater. Although, the westernmost part of the study area along the North Sea coast is saturated with saline water and the TEM data therefore is strongly influenced by the increased electrical conductivity here, buried valleys and other geological elements are still revealed. The salinity distribution indicates preferential flow paths through and along specific geological elements within the area. The effects of future sea level rise on the groundwater system and chemical status are discussed with special emphasis on the importance of knowing the existence, distribution and geometry of the mapped geological elements, and assessing their control on the groundwater salinity distribution.

  2. Using Large-scale Spatially and Temporally Consistent Reanalysis Data to Assess Fire Weather and Fire Regimes in Siberia in Preparation for Future Fire Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, A. J.; Westberg, D. J.; Stackhouse, P. W.; McRae, D.; Jin, J.

    2008-12-01

    A primary driving force of land cover change in boreal regions is fire, where extreme fire seasons are influenced by local weather and ultimately climate. It is predicted that fire frequency, area burned, fire severity, fire season length, and severe fire seasons will increase under current climate change scenarios. The use of local ground based weather data can be used to gauge the local fire potential on a daily, monthly, or seasonal basis. However, the number and distribution of surface observing stations in Siberia have been declining since the early 1990's. A compounding problem is existing observing stations have missing data on various time scales. The density of stations is limited; hence results may not be representative of the spatial reality. One solution is the temporally and spatially consistent NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) satellite-derived weather data interpolated to a 1x1 degree grid. In previous work, we showed the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) derived using GEOS-4 weather and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data compared well to ground based weather data from Jakutsk (Sakha) and Kyzyl (Tuva), Russia. Our primary focus is to expand on this work by spatially comparing the FWI derived from GEOS-4 / GPCP data and ground-based weather observations from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Extreme fires burned in Sakha and Tuva in 2002 and 2004, respectively, while in contrast, normal fire seasons occurred in Sakha and Tuva in 1999 and 2002, respectively. For this reason, we focus on the 1999, 2002, and 2004 fire seasons (April - September). In this investigation, we demonstrate how fire weather models perform on a large scale and investigate the performance of these models relative to input uncertainties. We intend to use this information to build regional-scale fire predictions systems that can be used for future interactive fire-weather-climate assessments.

  3. Transboundary geophysical mapping of geological elements and salinity distribution critical for the assessment of future sea water intrusion in response to sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Jørgensen

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Geophysical techniques are increasingly being used as tools for characterising the subsurface, and they are generally required to develop subsurface models that properly delineate the distribution of aquifers and aquitards, salt/freshwater interfaces, and geological structures that affect groundwater flow. In a study area covering 730 km2 across the border between Germany and Denmark, a combination of an airborne electromagnetic survey (performed with the SkyTEM system, a high-resolution seismic survey and borehole logging has been used in an integrated mapping of important geological, physical and chemical features of the subsurface. The spacing between flight lines is 200–250 m which gives a total of about 3200 line km. About 38 km of seismic lines have been collected. Faults bordering a graben structure, buried tunnel valleys, glaciotectonic thrust complexes, marine clay units, and sand aquifers are all examples of geological structures mapped by the geophysical data that control groundwater flow and to some extent hydrochemistry. Additionally, the data provide an excellent picture of the salinity distribution in the area and thus provide important information on the salt/freshwater boundary and the chemical status of groundwater. Although the westernmost part of the study area along the North Sea coast is saturated with saline water and the TEM data therefore are strongly influenced by the increased electrical conductivity there, buried valleys and other geological elements are still revealed. The mapped salinity distribution indicates preferential flow paths through and along specific geological structures within the area. The effects of a future sea level rise on the groundwater system and groundwater chemistry are discussed with special emphasis on the importance of knowing the existence, distribution and geometry of the mapped geological elements, and their control on the groundwater salinity distribution is assessed.

  4. Comprehensive assessment of the effective scope of modernization of thermal power plants to substantiate the rational structure of the generating capacities for the future until 2035

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veselov, F. V.; Erokhina, I. V.; Makarova, A. S.; Khorshev, A. A.

    2017-03-01

    The article deals with issues of technical and economic substantiation of priorities and scopes of modernizing the existing thermal power plants (TPPs) in Russia to work out long-term forecasts of the development of the industry. The current situation in the TPP modernization trends is analyzed. The updated initial figures of the capital and operation costs are presented and the obtained estimates of the comparative efficiency of various investment decisions on modernization and equipment replacement at gas-and-oil-burning and coal-fired TPPs with regard to the main zones of the national Unified Power System (UPS) of Russia are cited. The results of optimization of the generating capacity structure underlie a study of alternative TPP modernization strategies that differ in the scope of switching to new technologies, capital intensity, and energy efficiency (decrease in the average heat rate). To provide an integral economic assessment of the above strategies, the authors modified the traditional approach based on determination of the overall discounted costs of power supply (least-cost planning) supplemented with a comparison by the weighted average wholesale price of the electricity. A method for prediction of the wholesale price is proposed reasoning from the direct and dual solutions of the optimization problem. The method can be adapted to various combinations of the mechanisms of payment for the electricity and the capacity on the basis of marginal and average costs. Energy and economic analysis showed that the opposite effects of reduction in the capital investment and fuel saving change in a nonlinear way as the scope of the switch to more advanced power generation technologies at the TPPs increases. As a consequence, a strategy for modernization of the existing power plants rational with respect to total costs of the power supply and wholesale electricity prices has been formulated. The strategy combines decisions on upgrade and replacement of the equipment

  5. Accounting for hydro-climatic and water use variability in the assessment of past and future water balance at the basin scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabre, J.; Ruelland, D.; Dezetter, A.; Grouillet, B.

    2015-06-01

    This study assesses water stress by 2050 in river basins facing increasing human and climatic pressures, by comparing the impacts of various combinations of possible future socio-economic and climate trends. A modelling framework integrating human and hydro-climatic dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand at a 10-day time step was developed and applied in two basins of different sizes and with contrasted water uses: the Herault (2500 km2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model (GR4j). A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Urban water demand was estimated from time series of population and monthly unit water consumption data. Agricultural water demand was computed from time series of irrigated area, crop and soil data, and climate forcing. Indicators comparing water supply to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was successfully calibrated and validated under non-stationary human and hydro-climatic conditions over the last 40 years before being applied under four combinations of climatic and water use scenarios to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Climate simulations from the CMIP5 exercise were used to generate 18 climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon. A baseline water use scenario for 2050 was designed based on demographic and local socio-economic trends. Results showed that projected water uses are not sustainable under climate change scenarios.

  6. One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Voisin

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model including a water-demand model is coupled offline with a land surface hydrology – routing – water resources management model. In this study, a spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrated reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio. Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using a climate change projection with the B1 emission scenario, which affects both natural flow and water demand. Over the Midwest, changes in flow regulation are mostly driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi River basins. The changes in flow and demand have a combined effect on the Missouri summer regulated flow. The supply deficit seems to be driven by the change in flow over the region. Spatial analysis demonstrates the relationship between the supply deficit and the change in demand over urban areas not along a main river or with limited storage, and over areas upstream of groundwater dependent fields, which therefore have an overestimated surface water demand.

  7. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dixit, Prakash N., E-mail: p.dixit@cgiar.org; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  8. Outcomes-Based Authentic Learning, Portfolio Assessment, and a Systems Approach to "Complex Problem-Solving": Related Pillars for Enhancing the Innovative Role of PBL in Future Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Cameron

    2015-01-01

    The challenge of better reconciling individual and collective aspects of innovative problem-solving can be productively addressed to enhance the role of PBL as a key focus of the creative process in future higher education. This should involve "active learning" approaches supported by related processes of teaching, assessment and…

  9. Evaluating Hydrological Response of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban gro...

  10. Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts of Government Policies and Assessment of Future Opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, David L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Duleep, K. G. [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Upreti, Girish [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2011-05-15

    Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry, Government Policy and Future Opportunities. Fuel cells (FCs)are considered essential future energy technologies by developed and developing economies alike. Several countries, including the United States, Japan, Germany,and South Korea have established publicly funded R&D and market transformation programs to develop viable domestic FC industries for both automotive and nonautomotive applications.

  11. A New Process for the Acceleration Test and Evaluation of Aeromedical Equipment for U.S. Air Force Safe-To-Fly Certification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    component-level test uses the ELT method, which is detailed in the following section. The ELT Method The ELT terminology used in this article refers to...non-destructive test method to qualify equipment as safe-to-fly (STF). Using the USAF fixed-wing aircraft STF test criteria, this article presents...addition of more robust acceleration testing requirements. After the AE test article completes the laboratory phase, an In-Flight Assessment (IFA

  12. Energy Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on?and direct?the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the ?NanoFutures? project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We...... draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars....

  13. Energy Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on?and direct?the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the ?NanoFutures? project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We...... draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars....

  14. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2011-01-01

    will be a sea-battle tomorrow” could serve as standard examples. What could be called the problem of future contingents concerns how t