WorldWideScience

Sample records for future aeromedical assessment

  1. Aeromedical solutions for aerospace safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapoor, Pawan; Gaur, Deepak

    2017-10-01

    All facets of activity in the speciality of Aviation Medicine are essentially aimed at enhancing aerospace safety. This paper highlights some innovative changes brought about by Aerospace Medicine in the three major fields of the speciality namely, medical evaluation, aeromedical training and research. Based on lab and field studies, military aircrew are now permitted flying with Modifinil as 'Go' Pill and Zolpidem as 'No-Go' Pill during sustained operations. Several other drugs for disabilities like Hypertension and CAD are now permitted for aviators. Comprehensive revision of policy permitting early return to flying is an on-going process. OPRAM courses for all three streams of aircrew in IAF have contributed to reduce aircraft accident rates. Human Engineering Consultancy and expert advice is provided by specialists at IAM as well as those in the field. In future, the country needs to provide better post-service opportunities to aerospace medicine specialists. This, in turn, will attract bright young minds to the specialty. The ISRO Humanin-Space programme will be an exciting challenge for all in this unique field. Aerospace Medicine continues to provide aerospace safety solutions to the IAF and the aviation industry. The nation needs to continue to utilize and support this specialty.

  2. Effectiveness of Installation Aeromedical Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-13

    Technique Enables Dynamic Replanning and Rescheduling of Aeromedical Evacuation” highlighted the 1993 Department of Defense initiative to oversee medical...current system is dependent on the first responder (paramedic or nurse ) to determine the patient’s medical destination. This gap in control mechanisms...availability of trauma surgeons, anesthesiologists, physician specialists, nurses , and resuscitation equipment; required to treat 1200 admissions a year or

  3. Flying High: The Aeromedical Aspects of Marihuana

    Science.gov (United States)

    A summary of the discussions from the Civil Aeromedical Institute Symposium on aeromedical aspects of marihuana is presented. The invited panel...discussed the legal aspects of marihuana use and aviation, the experiences of military aviation, and the acute and chronic effects of the drug. For civil...aviation, the panel proposed a 12-16 hour period between marihuana use and work in aviation, no radical changes in FAA policy towards marihuana use, and additional research on aeromedical aspects of marihuana .

  4. Emergency transport by aeromedical blimp.

    OpenAIRE

    Cottrell, J. J.; Garrard, C.

    1989-01-01

    Recently there has been an explosive growth in the use of helicopters and fixed wing aircraft for the transportation of patients who are ill and injured. Although using such methods of transport may result in faster access to health care centres, their ultimate role for the civilian population is unclear. Unfortunately, there are many problems associated with aeromedical transport, particularly with rotary wing aircraft, which have shown an alarming tendency to crash. The use of lighter than ...

  5. Emergency transport by aeromedical blimp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottrell, J J; Garrard, C

    1989-04-01

    Recently there has been an explosive growth in the use of helicopters and fixed wing aircraft for the transportation of patients who are ill and injured. Although using such methods of transport may result in faster access to health care centres, their ultimate role for the civilian population is unclear. Unfortunately, there are many problems associated with aeromedical transport, particularly with rotary wing aircraft, which have shown an alarming tendency to crash. The use of lighter than air vehicles (blimps, hot air balloons) might offer most of the advantages of conventional aieromedical transport, with an appreciable improvement in safety.

  6. Aeromedical Evacuation: Validating Civil Reserve Air Fleet

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-25

    flight nurses and three medical technicians) is added for AE missions. The aeromedical evacuation crew (AEC) may be pared and tailored as required in... Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice and Science, Volume 5, Number 4, 2007: 319-325. 34 IAT.R 0554 General Accounting Office

  7. Loss of Signal, Aeromedical Lessons Learned from the STS-107 Columbia Space Shuttle Mishap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepaniak, Phillip C.; Patlach, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Loss of Signal, a NASA publication to be available in May 2014 presents the aeromedical lessons learned from the Columbia accident that will enhance crew safety and survival on human space flight missions. These lessons were presented to limited audiences at three separate Aerospace Medical Association (AsMA) conferences: in 2004 in Anchorage, Alaska, on the causes of the accident; in 2005 in Kansas City, Missouri, on the response, recovery, and identification aspects of the investigation; and in 2011, again in Anchorage, Alaska, on future implications for human space flight. As we embark on the development of new spacefaring vehicles through both government and commercial efforts, the NASA Johnson Space Center Human Health and Performance Directorate is continuing to make this information available to a wider audience engaged in the design and development of future space vehicles. Loss of Signal summarizes and consolidates the aeromedical impacts of the Columbia mishap process-the response, recovery, identification, investigative studies, medical and legal forensic analysis, and future preparation that are needed to respond to spacecraft mishaps. The goal of this book is to provide an account of the aeromedical aspects of the Columbia accident and the investigation that followed, and to encourage aerospace medical specialists to continue to capture information, learn from it, and improve procedures and spacecraft designs for the safety of future crews. This poster presents an outline of Loss of Signal contents and highlights from each of five sections - the mission and mishap, the response, the investigation, the analysis and the future.

  8. Loss of Signal, Aeromedical Lessons Learned for the STS-I07 Columbia Space Shuttle Mishap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patlach, Robert; Stepaniak, Philip C.; Lane, Helen W.

    2014-01-01

    Loss of Signal, a NASA publication to be available in May 2014, presents the aeromedical lessons learned from the Columbia accident that will enhance crew safety and survival on human space flight missions. These lessons were presented to limited audiences at three separate Aerospace Medical Association (AsMA) conferences: in 2004 in Anchorage, Alaska, on the causes of the accident; in 2005 in Kansas City, Missouri, on the response, recovery, and identification aspects of the investigation; and in 2011, again in Anchorage, Alaska, on future implications for human space flight. As we embark on the development of new spacefaring vehicles through both government and commercial efforts, the NASA Johnson Space Center Human Health and Performance Directorate is continuing to make this information available to a wider audience engaged in the design and development of future space vehicles. Loss of Signal summarizes and consolidates the aeromedical impacts of the Columbia mishap process-the response, recovery, identification, investigative studies, medical and legal forensic analysis, and future preparation that are needed to respond to spacecraft mishaps. The goals of this book are to provide an account of the aeromedical aspects of the Columbia accident and the investigation that followed, and to encourage aerospace medical specialists to continue to capture information, learn from it, and improve procedures and spacecraft designs for the safety of future crews.

  9. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  10. Myasthenia Gravis and Its Aeromedical Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagathesan, Tania; O'Brien, Michael D

    2017-01-01

    Myasthenia gravis is an autoimmune condition where antibodies form against the acetylcholine receptors at the neuromuscular junction, eventually causing damage to the motor end plate. The clinical features include muscle fatigability as well as ocular, bulbar, and limb weakness, which can have implications on the role of a pilot or air traffic controller. This retrospective study reviewed the United Kingdom Civil Aviation Authority (UK CAA) experience of myasthenia gravis. A search of the United Kingdom Civil Aviation Authority medical records database from 1990 to 2016 identified 11 individuals with a diagnosis of myasthenia gravis. Data were extracted for the class of medical certificate, age at diagnosis, symptoms, acetylcholine receptor antibody status, treatment, the time from diagnosis to loss of medical certification, and the reasons for loss of certification. There were two Class 1 certificate holders (for professional flying) and six Class 2 certificate holders (for private pilot flying) and three air traffic controllers. The mean and median ages at diagnosis were 53 and 57 yr, respectively, with a range of 28-67 yr. The mean and median intervals from diagnosis to loss of certification were 22 and 11 mo, respectively, with a range of 0 to 108 mo. The aeromedical implications of myasthenia gravis, including complications, types of treatment, and functional impact, are considered. A policy for medical certification following a diagnosis of myasthenia gravis is proposed.Jagathesan T, O'Brien MD. Myasthenia gravis and its aeromedical implications. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(1):30-33.

  11. Assessing the future of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moncomble, J.E.

    2015-01-01

    The World Energy Council has designed 2 tools named Jazz and Symphonie that allow the assessment of the potential impacts of energy choices on the future in terms of climate warming, investments, energy mix,... The Jazz roadmap aims at energy equity which means individual access to energy at a reasonable cost while the Symphonie roadmap focuses on environmental issues through appropriate practice and coordinated international policies. Both tools are integrated it means that they describe a whole world by most of its aspects: population, GDP per capita, number of cars by inhabitant, economic growth... A basic application of both tools shows that in 2050 the nuclear power will have increased (compared to today's level) but the share of nuclear power in the energy mix will have decreased for Jazz and increased for Symphonie. (A.C.)

  12. The future of FRMAC assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laiche, Thomas P.

    2010-01-01

    FRMAC was born out of circumstances 25 years ago when 17 federal agencies descended on the states with good intention during the Three-Mile Island nuclear power plant incident. At that time it quickly became evident that a better way was needed to support state and local governments in their time of emergency and recovery process. FRMAC's single voice of Federal support coordinates the multiple agencies that respond to a radiological event. Over the years, FRMAC has exercised, evaluated, and honed its ability to quickly respond to the needs of our communities. As the times have changed, FRMAC has expanded its focus from nuclear power plant incidents, to threats of a terrorist radiological dispersal device (RDD), to the unthinkable - an Improvised nuclear device (IND). And just as having the right tools are part of any trade, FRMAC's tool set has and is evolving to meet contemporary challenges - not just to improve the time it takes to collect data and assess the situation, but to provide a quality and comprehensive product that supports a stressed decision maker, responsible for the protection of the public. Innovations in the movement of data and information have changed our everyday lives. So too, FRMAC is capitalizing on industry innovations to improve the flow of information: from the early predictive models, to streamlining the process of getting data out of the field; to improving the time it takes to get assessed products in to the hands of the decision makers. FRMAC is focusing on the future through the digital age of electronic data processing. Public protective action and dose avoidance is the challenge.

  13. U.S. Navy Aeromedical Reference and Waiver Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-05

    Passion flower) – Piper methysticum (Kava-Kava) – Psilocybe semilanceata (magic mushrooms) – Rauwolfia serpentina (Indian snakeroot) – Rauwolfia... serpentina (Indian Snakeroot) – Scilla maritima (White Squill) – Scopolia carniolica (Scopolia)* U.S. Navy Aeromedical Reference and Waiver Guide...be sedatives: – Valeriana officinalis (Valerian) – Rauwolfia serpentina (Indian snakeroot) – Atropa belladonna (Deadly Nightshade)* – Chelidonium

  14. Emergency airway management in critically injured patients: a survey of U.S. aero-medical transport programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Dorsha N; Voskresensky, Igor V; Jack, Meg; Cotton, Bryan A

    2009-06-01

    Pre-hospital airway management represents the intervention most likely to impact outcomes in critically injured patients. As such, airway management issues dominate quality improvement (QI) reviews of aero-medical programs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate current practice patterns of airway management in trauma among U.S. aero-medical service (AMS) programs. The Association of Air Medical Services (AAMS) Resource Guide from 2005 to 2006 was utilized to identify the e-mail addresses of all directors of U.S. aero-medical transport programs. Program directors from 182 U.S. aero-medical programs were asked to participate in an anonymous, web-based survey of emergency airway management protocols and practices. Non-responders to the initial request were contacted a second time by e-mail. 89 programs responded. 98.9% have rapid sequence intubation (RSI) protocols. 90% use succinylcholine, 70% use long-acting neuromuscular blockers (NMB) within their RSI protocol. 77% have protocols for mandatory in-flight sedation but only 13% have similar protocols for maintenance paralytics. 60% administer long-acting NMB immediately after RSI, 13% after confirmation of neurological activity. Given clinical scenarios, however, 97% administer long-acting NMB to patients with scene and in-flight Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of 3, even for brief transport times. The majority of AMS programs have well defined RSI and in-flight sedation protocols, while protocols for in-flight NMB are uncommon. Despite this, nearly all programs administer long-acting NMB following RSI, irrespective of GCS or flight time. Given the impact of in-flight NMB on initial assessment, early intervention, and injury severity scoring, a critical appraisal of current AMS airway management practices appears warranted.

  15. Preclinical Evaluation of the Effects of Aeromedical Evacuation on Military-Relevant Casualties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Evaluation of the timing of aeromedical evacuation in rat and swine models of TBI and polytrauma ” will investigate whether early vs delayed aeromedical...injury. Instrumented swine with polytrauma [TBI, hemorrhagic shock (HS), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)] will be resuscitated and...2). WRAIR/NMRC IACUC protocol 17-OUMD-29LS “Evaluation of the Timing of Aeromedical Evacuation in Rat and Swine Models of TBI and Polytrauma

  16. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  17. Aeromedical decision making in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, David J P; Navathe, Pooshan D; Drane, A Michael

    2011-05-01

    Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder is a problematic diagnosis in the context of aeromedical certification. Certain characteristics of the disorder such as impaired attention potentially affect the safe conduct of flying. Pharmacological treatment with stimulants also has issues surrounding short half-lives and effects on the recognition of fatigue. This article gives a broad overview of the issues involved and provides certification guidelines as adopted in the Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority which may be helpful if adopted by other certification bodies.

  18. Predominance of neurologic diseases in international aeromedical transportation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wan-Lin; Lin, Yu-Ming; Ma, Hong-Ping; Chiu, Wen-Ta; Tsai, Shin-Han

    2009-12-01

    International travel industry in Taiwan is expanding. The number of people traveling abroad was approximately 480,000 people in 1980; 2,940,000 in 1990; 7,320,000 in 2000, and in 2007, it has reached 8,960,000, which was more than one third of total population. Air medical transportation will be necessary when local medical facilities do not approximate the international standards. No previous study on epidemiology in Taiwan on patients received international medical repatriation. This is the first report to discuss the epidemiology of Taiwan's international aeromedical transportation and its focus on neurologic diseases. Retrospective analysis of all international aeromedical transports on Taiwanese patients from October 2005 to September 2007 was performed. All materials were collected from the databank of International SOS, Taipei. The data were analyzed with Microsoft Excel and SPSS v. 11.0 software (SPSS, Chicago, Ill). A total of 416 patients were transported. Excluding expatriates transported outbound and 2-stage inbound transports, the Taiwanese patient number with international aeromedical transport was 379; 51 by air ambulance and 328 commercially. There were 271 male (72%) and 108 female patients (18%). Of the 379 patients, 178 (47%) were neurologic diseases. Two hundred ninety-five (78%) patients were transported from China. Patient transports peaked in autumn by 105 (28%). Of all 33 ventilated patients, 12 (36%) were neurologic diseases. In-flight complications occurred in 10% of neurologic and 2% of nonneurologic cases. No in-flight mortality occurred in both groups. Neurologic diseases comprise most of the Taiwanese patients that requires medical transportation. With relatively suboptimal medical standard and high medical expenses in China, patients with neurologic conditions need timely and safe aeromedical transport than those with other diseases. Transport of patients with neurologic diseases, either by air ambulance or commercial flights, can

  19. Emergency Aeromedical Services in Ireland – A Single-Centre Study in 2014

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Sheridan, G.A.

    2017-03-01

    This retrospective analysis includes patients requiring Emergency Aeromedical Services (EAS) in 2014. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the HEMS service in a single centre and to accurately assess whether certain internationally validated criteria can predict admission rates better than the currently used criteria. Using the American College of Surgeons (ACS) trauma-related dispatch criteria, each case was retrospectively evaluated. Results showed the mean total criteria met were 2.73 (σ=0.88) and 1.45 (σ=0.82) in admitted and discharged patients respectively. The total criteria met had a significant predictive value on admission rates (p<0.05). Increased admission rates were shown in patients with a high Mechanism of Injury (MOI) (p<0.05). False positive rates of HEMS transfer were higher when applying the current criteria compared to the ACS criteria. ACS total criteria can predict admission in HEMS patients with a higher specificity than currently used guidelines.

  20. On shift simulation in aeromedical operations - making it work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Glasheen

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Patient care in the prehospital and retrieval medicine (PHARM environment presents many technical and non-technical challenges. Clinicians are frequently required to perform complex interventions in a time critical and resource limited setting. Intensive training is required prior to operational deployment, and ongoing training is vital to ensure optimal team performance in the delivery of high quality patient care. Regular simulation training with high situational fidelity is valuable in developing and maintaining excellence in PHARM. We describe the methods employed by two Australian aeromedical retrieval services to facilitate daily on shift simulation.

  1. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T B; Nakicenovic, N; Patwardhan, A; Gomez-Echeverri, L [eds.

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  2. Safety management as a foundation for evidence-based aeromedical standards and reporting of medical events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Anthony D; Watson, Dougal B; Evans, Sally A; Hastings, John; Singh, Jarnail; Thibeault, Claude

    2009-06-01

    The different interpretations by States (countries) of the aeromedical standards established by the International Civil Aviation Organization has resulted in a variety of approaches to the development of national aeromedical policy, and consequently a relative lack of harmonization. However, in many areas of aviation, safety management systems have been recently introduced and may represent a way forward. A safety management system can be defined as "A systematic approach to managing safety, including the necessary organizational structures, accountabilities, policies, and procedures" (1). There are four main areas where, by applying safety management principles, it may be possible to better use aeromedical data to enhance flight safety. These are: 1) adjustment of the periodicity and content of routine medical examinations to more accurately reflect aeromedical risk; 2) improvement in reporting and analysis of routine medical examination data; 3) improvement in reporting and analysis of in-flight medical events; and 4) support for improved reporting of relevant aeromedical events through the promotion of an appropriate culture by companies and regulatory authorities. This paper explores how the principles of safety management may be applied to aeromedical systems to improve their contribution to safety.

  3. Ketamine sedation for patients with acute agitation and psychiatric illness requiring aeromedical retrieval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Cong, Minh; Gynther, Bruce; Hunter, Ernest; Schuller, Peter

    2012-04-01

    Aeromedical retrieval services face the difficult problem of appropriate levels of sedation for transport of acutely agitated patients to definitive care. This paper describes a technique using ketamine, which is titratable and avoids problems associated with airway management. A 3-year review of a new technique of ketamine sedation by aeromedical retrieval teams from the Cairns base of the Queensland section of the Royal Flying Doctor Service of Australia. Clinical records were systematically reviewed for ketamine administration and signs of adverse events during transport and in the subsequent 72 h. 18 patients were sedated during retrieval with intravenous ketamine. Effective sedation was achieved in all cases, with no significant adverse events noted during retrieval or 72 h afterwards. Ketamine sedation is effective and safe in agitated patients with a psychiatric illness in the aeromedical setting and does not lead to worsening agitation in the subsequent 72-h period.

  4. [Aeromedical evacuation of critically ill patients in developing countries A retrospective study on 244 patients in Djibouti].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordes, J; Loheas, D; Benois, A

    2015-01-01

    The pratice of intensive care in Africa is marked by a wide variety of health care delivery. Only a few centers offer specialized intensive care units, as cardiac or neurological units. That may explain the need for aeromedical evacuations for patients whose condition exceeds local capacity. Our objective was to assess whether the proportion of patients admitted to intensive care and evacuated had increased between 1997 and 2013 in a developing country, Djibouti. We examined the activity register of Bouffard Hospital intensive care unit in Djibouti to determine the number and characteristics of patients evacuated by air ambulance during a 16 years period. From January 1997 to December 2013, a total of 244 patients were evacuated. The evacuation rate was 5.74ù of the patients admitted to the entire duration of the study. The rate of patients evacuated was not different between 1997 and 2013 (5,69ù versus 8,33ù respectively, p = 0,269). However, the rate of djiboutian evacuated patients was statistically different between 1997 and 2013 (0,96ù versus 4,46ù, p = 0,02). The main causes were severe trauma injuries, cardiovascular diseases and neurological diseases. The aeromedical evacuation of a critically ill patient in a developing country is a process requiring heavy logistics and depending on the medical skills available in the area, and financial resources that can be implemented for the patient. Our study shows that medical evacuations in favor of Djiboutian patients are marginal but are increasing over the past decade.

  5. Assessing Leadership Potential for the Army's Future Force

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Donahue, Scott

    2004-01-01

    A transforming Army requires a corresponding transformation in its leader development and assessment methodology to enable the future force in the volatile uncertain complex and ambiguous contemporary...

  6. Assessing the need for future veterinary surgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Manuela

    2013-12-21

    While some in the profession are concerned about a possible 'overproduction' of vets, others argue that more might be needed to help meet current and future challenges. A debate at this year's BVA Congress tackled the question of how many vets are required, while considering how their unique skills might be more widely applied. Manuela Herrera reports.

  7. Life cycle assessment : Past, present, and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guinée, Jeroen B.; Heijungs, Reinout; Huppes, Gjalt; Zamagni, Alessandra; Masoni, Paolo; Buonamici, Roberto; Ekvall, Tomas; Rydberg, Tomas

    2011-01-01

    Environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) has developed fast over the last three decades. Whereas LCA developed from merely energy analysis to a comprehensive environmental burden analysis in the 1970s, full-fledged life cycle impact assessment and life cycle costing models were introduced in the

  8. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Assessing future trends in indoor air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    van de Wiel, H.J.; Lebret, E.; van der Lingen, W.K.; Eerens, H.C.; Vaas, L.H.; Leupen, M.J.

    1990-01-01

    Several national and international health organizations have derived concentration levels below which adverse effects on men are not expected or levels below which the excess risk for individuals is less than a specified value. For every priority pollutant indoor concentrations below this limit are considered healthy. The percentage of Dutch homes exceeding such a limit is taken as a measure of indoor air quality for that component. The present and future indoor air quality of the Dutch housing stock is described for fourteen air pollutants. The highest percentages are scored by radon, environmental tobacco smoke, nitrogen dioxide from unvented combustion, and the potential presence of housedust mite and mould allergen in damp houses. Although the trend for all priority pollutants is downward the most serious ones remain high in the coming decades if no additional measures will be instituted

  10. NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Gheorghe, Adrian; Jones, Sharon Monica

    2011-01-01

    The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

  11. Assessment of future natural gas vehicle concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groten, B.; Arrigotti, S.

    1992-10-01

    The development of Natural Gas Vehicles is progressing rapidly under the stimulus of recent vehicle emission regulations. The development is following what can be viewed as a three step progression. In the first step, contemporary gasoline or diesel fueled automobiles are retrofitted with equipment enabling the vehicle to operate on either natural gas or standard liquid fuels. The second step is the development of vehicles which utilize traditional internal combustion engines that have been modified to operate exclusively on natural gas. These dedicated natural gas vehicles operate more efficiently and have lower emissions than the dual fueled vehicles. The third step is the redesigning, from the ground up, of a vehicle aimed at exploiting the advantages of natural gas as an automotive fuel while minimizing its disadvantages. The current report is aimed at identifying the R&D needs in various fuel storage and engine combinations which have potential for providing increased efficiency, reduced emissions, and reductions in vehicle weight and size. Fuel suppliers, automobile and engine manufacturers, many segments of the natural gas and other industries, and regulatory authorities will influence or be affected by the development of such a third generation vehicle, and it is recommended that GRI act to bring these groups together in the near future to begin, developing the focus on a 'designed-for-natural-gas' vehicle.

  12. RPA Assessment of Outdoor Recreation: Past, Current, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, the outdoor recreation sections of the Renewable Resource Planning Act (RPA) Assessments conducted to date are reviewed. Current policy and mangement applications of the outsdoor recreation results published in 1989 Assessment are discussed also. The paper concludes with suggestions for the assemssment of outdoor recreation in future RPA Assessements...

  13. Quantitative health impact assessment: current practice and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.L. Veerman (Lennert); J.J.M. Barendregt (Jan); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractSTUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess what methods are used in quantitative health impact assessment (HIA), and to identify areas for future research and development. DESIGN: HIA reports were assessed for (1) methods used to quantify effects of policy on determinants of health

  14. Environmental assessment process needs and future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1985-01-01

    The environmental assessment process as legislatively mandated by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) constitutes a double-edged sword as regards the successful management and disposal of radioactive waste. On the one hand, NEPA requires identification and disclosure of the environmental and societal consequences of a given major federal action, consideration of alternatives and/or mitigative measures leading to the same end result, a balancing of costs and benefits, and provides for and encourages public participation in the decision-making process regarding the proposed action(s). On the other hand, public participation supported by judicial decisions, based more upon procedural than substantive issues, may delay, alter, or indeed prohibit a proposed course of action. If the cognizant federal agencies (DOE and NRC in the radioactive waste area) comply with both the spirit and the letter of NEPA a framework for the successful management of radioactive wastes on all types can be developed. If however, these agencies are less than earnest in their NEPA compliance actions or if public opposition is backed by overzealous court action, any radioactive waste management/disposal action (however technically sound) can be hoisted upon a petard from which it may not be freed until well into the next century

  15. Environmental assessment process needs and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1985-01-01

    The environmental assessment process as legislatively mandated by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) constitutes a double-edged sword as regards the successful management and disposal of radioactive waste. On the one hand, NEPA requires identification and disclosure of the environmental and societal consequences of a given major federal action, consideration of alternatives and/or mitigative measures leading to the same end result, a balancing of costs and benefits, and provides for and encourages public participation in the decision-making process regarding the proposed action(s). On the other hand, public participation supported by judicial decisions, based more upon procedural than substantive issues, may delay, alter, or indeed prohibit a proposed course of action. If the cognizant federal agencies (DOE and NRC in the radioactive waste area) comply with both the spirit and the letter of NEPA a framework for the successful management of radioactive wastes on all types can be developed. If however, these agencies are less than earnest in their NEPA compliance actions or if public opposition is backed by overzealous court action, any radioactive waste management/disposal action (however technically sound) can be hoisted upon a petard from which it may not be freed until well into the next century.

  16. Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Jonathan M.; Lopez, Jose R.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Young, Charles A.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2017-01-01

    Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

  17. AL Qaeda, Trends in Terrorism and Future Potentialities: An Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hoffman, Bruce

    2003-01-01

    This paper assesses current trends in terrorism and future potentialities. It examines first the presumed state of al Qaeda today with particular reference to its likely agenda in a post-Iraq war world...

  18. The future of human rights impact assessments of trade agreements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walker, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    The Future of Human Rights Impact Assessments of Trade Agreements develops a methodology for human rights impact assessments of trade agreements and considers whether there is any value in using the methodology on a sustained basis to ensure that the human dimensions of international trade are taken

  19. Clinical Experience and Learning Style of Flight Nurse and Aeromedical Evacuation Technician Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jong, Marla J; Dukes, Susan F; Dufour, Karey M; Mortimer, Darcy L

    2017-01-01

    The clinical experience and preferred learning style of U.S. Air Force flight nurses and aeromedical evacuation technicians are unknown. Using a cross-sectional survey design, we gathered data regarding the clinical experience, level of comfort providing clinical care, and preferred learning style of 77 active duty (AD), Air Force Reserve (AFR), and Air National Guard (ANG) nurses enrolled in the U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine Flight Nurse course, and 121 AD, AFR, and ANG medical technicians enrolled in the Aeromedical Evacuation Technician course. Nurses and medical technicians reported 7.6 ± 5.5 and 3.9 ± 4.5 yr of experience, respectively. AD, AFR, and ANG nurses had comparable years of experience: 5.8 ± 3.2, 8.3 ± 6.6, and 7.9 ± 4.2 yr, respectively; however, AD medical technicians had more years of experience (5.6 ± 4.4 yr) than AFR (3.1 ± 4.8 yr) and ANG (1.9 ± 2.8 yr) medical technicians. Both nurses and medical technicians reported infrequently caring for patients with various disease processes and managing equipment or devices that they will routinely encounter when transporting patients as an aeromedical evacuation clinician. Nurses and medical technicians preferred a kinesthetic learning style or a multimodal learning style that included kinesthetic learning. Nearly all (99%) nurses and 97% of medical technicians identified simulation as their preferred teaching method. These findings confirm faculty concerns regarding the clinical experience of flight nurse and aerospace evacuation technician students.De Jong MJ, Dukes SF, Dufour KM, Mortimer DL. Clinical experience and learning style of flight nurse and aeromedical evacuation technician students. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(1):23-29.

  20. Imagining flood futures: risk assessment and management in practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Stuart N; Landström, Catharina; Whatmore, Sarah J

    2011-05-13

    The mantra that policy and management should be 'evidence-based' is well established. Less so are the implications that follow from 'evidence' being predictions of the future (forecasts, scenarios, horizons) even though such futures define the actions taken today to make the future sustainable. Here, we consider the tension between 'evidence', reliable because it is observed, and predictions of the future, unobservable in conventional terms. For flood risk management in England and Wales, we show that futures are actively constituted, and so imagined, through 'suites of practices' entwining policy, management and scientific analysis. Management has to constrain analysis because of the many ways in which flood futures can be constructed, but also because of commitment to an accounting calculus, which requires risk to be expressed in monetary terms. It is grounded in numerical simulation, undertaken by scientific consultants who follow policy/management guidelines that define the futures to be considered. Historical evidence is needed to deal with process and parameter uncertainties and the futures imagined are tied to pasts experienced. Reliance on past events is a challenge for prediction, given changing probability (e.g. climate change) and consequence (e.g. development on floodplains). So, risk management allows some elements of risk analysis to become unstable (notably in relation to climate change) but forces others to remain stable (e.g. invoking regulation to prevent inappropriate floodplain development). We conclude that the assumed separation of risk assessment and management is false because the risk calculation has to be defined by management. Making this process accountable requires openness about the procedures that make flood risk analysis more (or less) reliable to those we entrust to produce and act upon them such that, unlike the 'pseudosciences', they can be put to the test of public interrogation by those who have to live with their consequences

  1. Back to the Future: Personality and Assessment and Personality Development

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, Brent W.

    2009-01-01

    In this essay I consider the future of personality development in light of the past effects of Personality and Assessment on the field of personality in general and personality development in particular. The essay is organized around 1) the effect of Mischel's book on the foundational theories informing personality development; 2) definitions of personality traits; 3) an alternative model of personality traits, described as the sociogenomic model of personality traits, that can bridge the div...

  2. Technical Assessments of Future European Space Transportation Options

    OpenAIRE

    Sippel, Martin; van Foreest, Arnold; Dutheil, Jean-Philippe; Philip, Peter

    2007-01-01

    The paper describes some of the most recent activities in Germany in the technical assessment of future European launcher architecture. In focus is a joint effort of DLR-SART with German launcher industry in the definition of a next generation upper-medium class expendable TSTO with an initial operational capability after 2020. Involved companies are EADS astrium and MT Aerospace. This DLR-agency funded study WOTAN investigates fully cryogenic launchers as well as those with a com...

  3. Aero-medical evacuation from the second Israel-Lebanon war: a descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Dagan; Resheff, Avram; Geftler, Alex; Weiss, Aviram; Birenbaum, Erez; Lavon, Ophir

    2009-05-01

    The second Lebanon war started as a limited operation and progressed to a large-scale campaign. Most of the fighting took place in mountainous villages and small towns inhabited with civilians. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Airborne rescue and evacuation unit is charged with air evacuation of soldiers and civilians in times of peace, limited conflict, and war. We describe this unit's activities in the second Lebanon war, analyzing injury, treatment, and evacuation characteristics Data were collected from flight medical reports, debriefings of aero-medical team members (usually immediately upon return from mission), ground units medical reports and debriefings, and hospital records. 725 IDF soldiers were injured and 117 killed either in Lebanon or near the Israeli-Lebanese border during the war. A total of 338 (46%) were evacuated in 95 airlifts (averaging 4.5 evacuees per airlift) from the fighting zones or the border. Air evacuation used dedicated helicopters with advanced care capacities, and most victims were evacuated straight from the battlefield, as the fighting was ensuing. Many wounded first received advanced medical care upon the arrival of the aero-medical teams. In military operations within civilian populated areas with threats to ground transport, air evacuation can sometimes be the only readily available option. Providing timely ground advanced medical care proved difficult in many instances. Thus, for many, the rescue helicopter was the first point of access to such care. Aero-medical aircrafts and personnel faced threats from gunfire and missiles, causing both delays in evacuation and a high average number of evacuees per airlift. This article proposes ways of coping with situations in which similar rescue and evacuation problems are likely.

  4. Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikman-Svahn, P.

    2013-12-01

    How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing

  5. Environmental assessment of current and future Swiss electricity supply options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, Christian; Heck, Thomas; Hirschberg, Stefan; Dones, Roberto

    2008-01-01

    Options for near future electricity supply are currently one of the main topics in the Swiss energy policy debate. Contrary to the total energy demand per capita the trend of rising electricity demand per capita is still visible. This paper presents a comparative environmental assessment of a broad portfolio of current and future electricity generation technologies including nuclear, fossil, and renewable power plants with their associated energy chains. The evaluation, based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), is carried out quantifying ten different environmental indicators, grouped in the categories greenhouse gas emissions, consumption of resources, waste, and impact on ecosystems. Hydropower shows minimal environmental impacts for all indicators; for other systems, the picture is diverse. The comparison of non-aggregated indicators allows preliminary conclusions about the environmental performance of the assessed systems. Establishing ranking of technologies calls for aggregating the indicators, which can be done by weighting of the indicators based on individual or stakeholder group preferences, either within a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework or with Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods. Calculating total costs of electricity by adding external costs due to impacts on human health and ecosystems to the electricity production costs poses another option for ranking of technologies. (authors)

  6. THE ASSESSMENT OF CYBERBULLYING: THE PRESENT SITUATION AND FUTURE CHALLENGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Lucas-Molina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a significant increase in the interest of the educational and scientific community on cyberbullying, a new form of peer abuse and intimidation. Despite the widespread proliferation of studies and assessment tools on the phenomenon, there are still major conceptual and methodological gaps. This paper offers a comprehensive and updated review of the results of research on the definition of the construct, its prevalence and its impact on the people involved. Finally, it focuses specifically on the assessment of the construct and provides a brief review of the general and psychometric characteristics of the instruments used in some of the most relevant national and international studies conducted on the subject. This work places special emphasis on the present and future challenges and concludes with a number of general recommendations intended to guide the correct selection and/or construction of assessment instruments in this field of study.

  7. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  8. ASSESSMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: PRESENT AND FUTURE METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Benítez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The growing importance of quality of life in diverse domains, such as health, school performance and social participation, has led to the development of new conceptualisations and assessments of the construct. This diversity of perspectives brings about many benefits, but it also creates an obstacle for the formulation of a single unifying definition of the construct and, therefore, an agreed instrument or assessment framework. The aim of this study is to discuss the current methodological challenges in the measurement of quality of life. Firstly, we provide a brief description of the construct as defined in various areas, then we examine the new methodological developments and different applications. We also present an overview of the different possibilities for future developments in defining and measuring quality of life in national and international studies.

  9. USGCRP's Sustained Assessment Process: Progress to date and future plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelo, B. J.; Reidmiller, D.; Lipschultz, F.; Cloyd, E. T.

    2016-12-01

    One of the four main objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) Strategic Plan is to "Conduct Sustained Assessments", which seeks to build a process that synthesizes and advances the state of scientific knowledge on global change, develops future scenarios and potential impacts, and evaluates how effectively science is being and can be used to inform and support the Nation's response to climate change. To do so, USGCRP strives to establish a standing capacity to conduct national climate assessments with sectoral and regional information to evaluate climate risks and opportunities, and to inform decision-making, especially with regard to resiliency planning and adaptation measures. Building on the success of the 3rd National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2014), we discuss the range of USGCRP activities that embody the sustained assessment concept. Special reports, such as the recent Climate and Human Health Assessment and upcoming Climate Science Special Report, fill gaps in our understanding and provide crucial building blocks for next NCA report (NCA4). To facilitate the use of consistent assumptions across NCA4, new scenario products for climate, population, and land use will be made available through initiatives such as NOAA's Climate Resilience Toolkit. NCA4 will be informed by user engagement to advance the customization of knowledge. The report will strive to advance our ability to quantify various risks, monetize certain impacts, and communicate the benefits (i.e., avoided impacts) of various mitigation pathways. NCAnet (a national network of climate-interested stakeholders) continues to grow and foster collaborations across levels of governance and within civil society. Finally, USGCRP continues to actively engage with other assessment processes, at international, state, city, and tribal levels, to exchange ideas and to facilitate the potential for "linked" assessments across spatial scales.

  10. The Future of Exposure Assessment: Perspectives from the ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The British Occupational Hygiene Society, in collaboration with the Institute of Occupational Medicine, the University of Manchester, the UK Health and Safety Executive, and the University of Aberdeen hosted the 7th International Conference on the Science of Exposure Assessment (X2012) on 2 July–5 July 2012 in Edinburgh, UK. The conference ended with a special session at which invited speakers from government, industry, independent research institutes, and academia were asked to reflect on the conference and discuss what may now constitute the important highlights or drivers of future exposure assessment research. This article summarizes these discussions with respect to current and future technical and methodological developments. For the exposure science community to continue to have an impact in protecting public health, additional efforts need to be made to improve partnerships and cross-disciplinary collaborations, although it is equally important to ensure that the traditional occupational exposure themes are still covered as these issues are becoming increasingly important in the developing world. To facilitate this the ‘X’ conferences should continue to retain a holistic approach to occupational and non-occupational exposures and should actively pursue collaborations with other disciplines and professional organizations to increase the presence of consumer and environmental exposure scientists. The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′

  11. Health technology assessment: research trends and future priorities in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Camilla Palmhøj; Funch, Tina Maria; Kristensen, Finn Børlum

    2011-07-01

    To provide an overview of health services research related to health technology assessment (HTA) and to identify research priorities from a European perspective. Several methods were used: systematic review of articles indexed with the MeSH term 'technology assessment' in PubMed from February 1999-2009; online survey among experts; and conference workshop discussions. Research activity in HTA varies considerably across Europe. The research was categorised into six areas: (1) the breadth of analysis in HTA (such as economic, organizational and social aspects); (2) HTA products developed to meet the needs of policy-makers (such as horizon scanning, mini-HTA, and core HTA); (3) handling life-cycle perspectives in relation to technologies; (4) topics that challenge existing methods and for which HTA should be developed to address the themes more comprehensively (such as public health interventions and organizational interventions); (5) development of HTA capacity and programmes; and (6) links between policy and HTA. An online survey showed that the three areas that were given priority were the relationship between HTA and policy-making (71%), the impact of HTA (62%) and incorporating patient aspects in HTA (50%). Policy-makers highlighted HTA and innovation processes as their main research priority (42%). Areas that the systematic review identified as future priorities include issues within the six existing research areas such as disinvestment, developing evidence for new technologies, assessing the wider effects of technology use, and determining how HTA affects decision-making. In addition, relative effectiveness and individualized treatments are areas of growing interest. The research priorities identified are important for obtaining high quality and cost-effective health care in Europe. Managing the introduction, use and phasing out of technologies challenges health services throughout Europe, and these processes need to be improved to successfully manage future

  12. Sociological assessment of professional self-determination of future doctors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaidarov G.M.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The lack of a formed professional self-determination among high school students leads to the fact that in the process of medical education and the first years of professional activity, a significant number of students and young specialists leave medicine. Purpose of the study: sociological assessment of professional self-determination of schoolchildren of the upper grades, including those who choose the profession of a doctor, as well as the factors that determine it. Methods. The study was conducted using a sociological survey using a specially developed questionnaire. Results. The level of professional self-determination of schoolchildren of the upper grades is low, one out of every three schoolchildren surveyed has not yet decided on the choice of the future profession, about 8 % of the students have not even chosen an approximate direction of future professional activity. Schoolchildren who have chosen the profession of a doctor, the main motivation is an adherence and a life situation, while prestige and the level of wages are not decisive. As the main base of forming professional self-determination two out of three respondents named the school, meaning the speech made for them by doctors and medical students. For those schoolchildren who have chosen the profession of a doctor on their own, the main motivation factor usually is the visit to the medical university during Doors Open Days. Conclusion. The most important role in the formation of professional self-determination of future doctors belongs to the development and implementation of vocational guidance activities carried out by the forces of the school and medical university.

  13. A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

    2015-04-01

    We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

  14. The Future of Small Navy Ship Sickbays and Army Aeromedical Evacuation Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    saliva testing abilities for pregnancy and identification of health problems (Healy, 2014). The potential capability of this device in the small ship...ir1 n:’uT’(Iw JDfld FM ran:ge:i I 36 - ~ 74 ). Uti , 4SO - s::w M 11:.-:, 7().1 - 869 M l lz. ttOOI 806 tQ 960 MH.z band 97 MCCS-fE ’.1

  15. Traumatic brain injury: future assessment tools and treatment prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven R Flanagan

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Steven R Flanagan1, Joshua B Cantor2, Teresa A Ashman21New York University School of Medicine, The Rusk Institute of Rehabilitation, New York, NY, USA; 2Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USAAbstract: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is widespread and leads to death and disability in millions of individuals around the world each year. Overall incidence and prevalence of TBI are likely to increase in absolute terms in the future. Tackling the problem of treating TBI successfully will require improvements in the understanding of normal cerebral anatomy, physiology, and function throughout the lifespan, as well as the pathological and recuperative responses that result from trauma. New treatment approaches and combinations will need to be targeted to the heterogeneous needs of TBI populations. This article explores and evaluates the research evidence in areas that will likely lead to a reduction in TBI-related morbidity and improved outcomes. These include emerging assessment instruments and techniques in areas of structural/chemical and functional neuroimaging and neuropsychology, advances in the realms of cell-based therapies and genetics, promising cognitive rehabilitation techniques including cognitive remediation and the use of electronic technologies including assistive devices and virtual reality, and the emerging field of complementary and alternative medicine.Keywords: traumatic brain injury, assessments, treatments

  16. [Doctor, may I travel in space? Aeromedical considerations regarding commercial suborbital space flights].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haerkens, Marck H T M; Simons, Ries; Kuipers, André

    2011-01-01

    Within a few years, the first commercial operators will start flying passengers on suborbital flights to the verge of space. Medical data on the effects of space journeys on humans have mainly been provided by professional astronauts. There is very little research into the aeromedical consequences of suborbital flights for the health of untrained passengers. Low air pressure and oxygen tension can be compensated for by pressurising the spacecraft or pressure suit. Rapid changes in gravitational (G-)force pose ultimate challenges to cardiovascular adaptation mechanisms. Zero-gravity and G-force may cause motion sickness. Vibrations and noise during the flight may disturb communication between passengers and crew. In addition, the psychological impact of a suborbital flight should not be underestimated. There are currently no legal requirements available for medical examinations for commercial suborbital flights, but it seems justifiable to establish conditions for potential passengers' states of health.

  17. Aeromedical Hazard Comparison of FAA Medically Certified Third-Class and Medically Uncertified Pilots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricaurte, Eduard M; Mills, William D; DeJohn, Charles A; Laverde-Lopez, Maria C; Porras-Sanchez, Daniel F

    2016-07-01

    Since 2004, in the United States, light sport aircraft (LSA) and some aircraft with standard airworthiness certificates can be operated for recreational purposes with a valid state driver's license rather than a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)-issued aeromedical certificate. There have been recent efforts to allow operation of much larger, heavier, faster, and more complex aircraft without requiring a medical certificate. The primary objective of this research was to compare hazards to flight safety identified in fatally injured pilots required to possess a valid FAA third-class medical certificate to hazards in fatally injured pilots who were not required to possess a valid medical certificate. A search of all fatal U.S. aircraft accidents in the FAA Medical ANalysis and TRAcking (MANTRA) registry between January 1, 2011, and April 30, 2014, identified 1084 individuals. A review of accident pilots' medical, autopsy, and toxicological data was conducted. After applying exclusion criteria, 467 pilots remained, including 403 medically certified and 64 medically uncertified pilots. A significant difference was found in a surrogate measure for risk between medically certified and uncertified pilots (25% vs. 59%). This difference remained significant after adjustment for age. No significant difference was found in the proportions of hazards identified on toxicological review. The results of this study suggest that the risk of an adverse medical event is reduced in pilots required to possess a valid medical certificate. Ricaurte EM, Mills WD, DeJohn CA, Laverde-Lopez MC, Porras-Sanchez DF. Aeromedical hazard comparison of FAA medically certified third-class and medically uncertified pilots. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2016; 87(7):618-621.

  18. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retèl Valesca P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

  19. Evaluation of Neurophysiologic and Systematic Changes during Aeromedical Evacuation and en Route Care of Combat Casualties in a Swine Polytrauma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-01

    long range aero-medical evacuation in hypobaric environments on the physiology and organ function of injured warfighters, thus potentially and...currently ongoing. REPORTABLE OUTCOMES: Steve Chun, MD; Ashraful Haque, MD; Brittany Hazzard, BS; Saha Biswajit, MD, Martin Harssema, MD, Charles Auker...Scultetus MD; Ashraful Haque, MD; Brittany Hazzard, BS; Saha Biswajit, MD; Steve Chun, MD; Martin Harssema, MD; Charles Auker, MD, PhD; Debra Malone

  20. Beyond the MEGA BORG: The future of cooperative damage assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, J.P.; Seiler, R.; Mauseth, G.

    1993-01-01

    Prespill planning and coordination are the major requirements of industry and government to ensure future cooperative natural resource damage assessments (NRDA). Since oil spills most often occur without warning, both parties must be prepared prior to an oil spill into the environment. Federal and State co-trustees should enter into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to ensure cooperation and coordination among trustees in all NRDA activities. The MOU should provide the framework whereby each trustee's resource interests can be represented. Ideally, MOUs should be prepared during the prespill planning process, although the MEGA BORG MOU was prepared soon after the actual discharge. The establishment of co-trustee working groups will foster the positive working relationships necessary in cooperative NRDAs. The trustees should identify all potential co-trustees in a given area and agree on a mechanism for trustee notification. Criteria for the rapid designation of the Lead Administrative Trustee and approaches for coordination with response agencies and potential responsible parties (PRPs) need to be developed. Most importantly, the trustees should identify PRPs and invite their participation in the prespill planning process

  1. Flow and Noise Control: Review and Assessment of Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Russell H.; Choudhari, Meelan M.; Joslin, Ronald D.

    2002-01-01

    Technologies for developing radically new aerovehicles that would combine quantum leaps in cost, safety, and performance benefits with environmental friendliness have appeared on the horizon. This report provides both an assessment of the current state-of-the-art in flow and noise control and a vision for the potential gains to be made, in terms of performance benefit for civil and military aircraft and a unique potential for noise reduction, via future advances in flow and noise technologies. This report outlines specific areas of research that will enable the breakthroughs necessary to bring this vision to reality. Recent developments in many topics within flow and noise control are reviewed. The flow control overview provides succinct summaries of various approaches for drag reduction and improved maneuvering. Both exterior and interior noise problems are examined, including dominant noise sources, physics of noise generation and propagation, and both established and proposed concepts for noise reduction. Synergy between flow and noise control is a focus and, more broadly, the need to pursue research in a more concurrent approach involving multiple disciplines. Also discussed are emerging technologies such as nanotechnology that may have a significant impact on the progress of flow and noise control.

  2. The Past and the Future of Constructive Technology Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schot, Johan; Rip, Arie

    1997-01-01

    Constructive technology assessment (CTA) is a member of the family of technology assessment approaches. developed in particular in the Netherlands and Denmark. CTA shifts the focus away from assessing impacts of new technologies to broadening design, development, and implementation processes.

  3. Future technology in cochlear implants: assessing the benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Robert J S

    2011-05-01

    It has been over 50 years since Djourno and Eyries first attempted electric stimulation in a patient with deafness. Over this time, the Cochlear Implant (CI) has become not only remarkably successful, but increasingly complex. Although the basic components of the system still comprise an implanted receiver stimulator and electrode, externally worn speech processor, microphone, control system, and power source, there are now several alternative designs of these components with different attributes that can be variably combined to meet the needs of specific patient groups. Development by the manufacturers has been driven both by these various patient needs, and also by the desire to achieve technological superiority, or at least differentiation, ultimately in pursuit of market share. Assessment of benefit is the responsibility of clinicians. It is incumbent on both industry and clinicians to ensure appropriate, safe, and affordable introduction of new technology. For example, experience with the totally implanted cochlear implant (TIKI) has demonstrated that quality of hearing is the over-riding consideration for CI users. To date, improved hearing outcomes have been achieved by improvements in: speech processing strategies; microphone technology; pre-processing strategies; electrode placement; bilateral implantation; use of a hearing aid in the opposite ear (bimodal stimulation); and the combination of electric and acoustic stimulation in the same ear. The resulting expansion of CI candidacy, with more residual hearing, further improves the outcomes achieved. Largely facilitated by advances in electronic capability and computerization, it can be expected that these improvements will continue. However, marked variability of results still occurs and we cannot assure any individual patient of their outcome. Realistic goals for implementation of new technology include: improved hearing in noise and music perception; effective invisible hearing (no external apparatus

  4. Interim Feed The Future Population Based Assessment of Cambodia

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — This is the interim population based survey of Feed the Future in Cambodia for 2015. The data is split into survey modules. Modules A through C includes location...

  5. Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    . USDA Forest Service.

    2012-01-01

    The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

  6. Functional Behavior Assessment in Schools: Current Status and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Cynthia M.; Rodriguez, Billie Jo; Campbell, Amy

    2015-01-01

    Functional behavior assessment is becoming a commonly used practice in school settings. Accompanying this growth has been an increase in research on functional behavior assessment. We reviewed the extant literature on documenting indirect and direct methods of functional behavior assessment in school settings. To discern best practice guidelines…

  7. Solar energy systems: assessment of present and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuehne, H.-M.; Aulich, H.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the present state and the future potential of solar thermal and photovoltaic (PV) technologies, and examines both the environmental implications of these technologies and the economics which determine their viability in the energy market. Although some significant cost reductions have been achieved, particularly in PV technology, solar conversion technologies are still not generally competitive against conventional fuels, and future cost reductions may be limited. It is argued that fiscal measures will be necessary if solar conversion technologies are to make a significant global impact. (Author)

  8. Assessing Collaborative Learning: Big Data, Analytics and University Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Assessment in higher education has focused on the performance of individual students. This focus has been a practical as well as an epistemic one: methods of assessment are constrained by the technology of the day, and in the past they required the completion by individuals under controlled conditions of set-piece academic exercises. Recent…

  9. Assessment and E-Learning: Current Issues and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowie, Neil; Sakui, Keiko

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes different ways in which digital technology can be used for language learning. It then identifies some key trends connecting assessment and technology in language learning and higher education: the use of automated systems to enhance traditional assessment practices; the use of Web 2.0 tools to facilitate new assessment…

  10. Assessment of the energy efficiency enhancement of future mobile networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litjens, R.; Toh, Y.; Zhang, H.; Blume, O.

    2014-01-01

    We assess the energy efficiency of mobile networks in 2020, and compare it with a 2010 baseline. A comprehensive assessment approach is taken, considering all relevant scenario aspects such as data traffic growth, hardware evolutions, mobile network deployments and operations including network

  11. Assessing the role of coal in the world energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hibbard Junior, W.R.

    1981-01-01

    Ten recent extensive studies of long range energy futures were evaluated and a consensus of findings developed. Progress toward the consensus was determined. In the next 20 years the United States will need all of the coal, nuclear, oil shale and tar sands that public consensus and the legislatures will permit. Concerns include the cost and availability of OPEC oil, energy efficiency, acid rain, and carbon dioxide build-up. (Author) [pt

  12. Current assessment and future potential of the international nuclear market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassidy, P.R.

    1983-01-01

    This is a study of the current and future situation of the international nuclear market. This paper highlights the projections as seen not only by Bechtel Power Corporation, but also by the international nuclear community. It covers in particular the electric power growth projection; the percentage of probable nuclear power generation; operating services for existing nuclear power plants; and the nuclear fuel cycle. (NEA) [fr

  13. Regional landslide hazard assessment in a deep uncertain future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2017-04-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around future rainfall conditions. We demonstrate how GSA can used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

  14. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  15. Aging assessments: A strategy for today and the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lofaro, R.; Taylor, J.

    1993-01-01

    Aging assessments have been performed for selected nuclear power plant systems under the NRC's Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) program. These assessments are typically performed by evaluating industry wide data from national databases. The results provide useful information on the typical aging characteristics for the system studied. However, due to the differences in operation and environmental conditions, as well as maintenance practices between plants, the results of the industry wide data analyses may not be representative of specific plant conditions. Therefore, it would be beneficial for utilities to perform their own plant specific aging assessments. This paper discusses an approach that can be used by the utilities to perform an aging assessment of their plant systems. The methodology is based on that used to perform the NPAR system studies at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The reasons for performing a plant specific system level aging assessment are discussed, along with the sources of information that should be used. In addition, a methodology for performing the assessment is presented. Sample charts and tables are included to illustrate the expected products. A discussion is included on what to look for in the available data, how to interpret the findings, and how to implement the results

  16. Self-Assessment in Librarianship: Current Practices and Future Possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ania Dymarz

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors of this qualitative study set out to investigate self-assessment practices within the library profession. The researchers conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of nine librarians coming from a range of library settings and possessing a diversity of library experience. Interviews were then transcribed and coded in NVIVO to identify emergent themes. This paper details some of the results of that study, highlighting motivations, limitations, and strategies with regard to self-assessment. The findings present a summary of a range of approaches to the practice of assessment as reported by the interviewees. One area of possible growth for our profession, as highlighted by the findings, is in the development of peer networks as a support for the individual practice of self-assessment. While the results of this small case study cannot be generalized, the authors hope these preliminary findings can open up the conversation around self-assessment both for individual librarians and for those librarians and managers working to shape their workplace culture.

  17. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, Valesca; Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; van Harten, Willem H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and

  18. Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction: An Assessment and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernon, Peter; Nitecki, Danuta A.; Altman, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    Reviews the literature of library and information science to examine issues related to service quality and customer satisfaction in academic libraries. Discusses assessment, the application of a business model to higher education, a multiple constituency approach, decision areas regarding service quality, resistance to service quality, and future…

  19. Future of health technology assessment studies in gene and cell ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, as should be noted, health care decisions need to be based on Health Technology Assessments (HTA) that should be based on objective criteria as efficacy, effectiveness, quality, safety, psychological, social, ethical, organisational and professional implications as well as cost effectiveness and further macro ...

  20. Future transportation: Lifetime considerations and framework for sustainability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sweeting, Walter J.; Winfield, Patricia H.

    2012-01-01

    Modern society cannot exist without mobility. It is now essential to maintain access to everyday necessities, as well as being a vital part of most economies. However, our current transportation system is placing unsustainable demands on finite resources of fossil fuels, minerals and materials; change is therefore essential. Identifying rational choices is difficult because a future transport option must not only abate these demands over the entire lifetime, but do so at an affordable cost whilst maintaining acceptable levels of utility. This paper offers a framework to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria, in order to help validate current and future developments. It supports integrated comparisons of both fuel and vehicle technology combinations for cost, energy and greenhouse gas emissions throughout a vehicles lifetime. Case studies illustrate the use of this framework. All powertrains were found to require considerable amounts of energy and emit some emissions over their whole lifetime. Significant benefits over incumbent vehicles were found to be potentially attainable through the use of alternative powertrains. However, the majority of these benefits were currently found to increase user costs, worsen the vehicle production impacts and be heavily reliant on the source of the vehicles in-use energy. - Highlight: ► Cost, energy and GHG emissions throughout a vehicle’s lifetime are evaluated. ► This paper offers a structure to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria. ► Substantial amounts of energy and emissions were evident for all options. ► Significant environmental benefits over incumbent vehicles were found. ► In-use benefits were shown to shift impacts to other phases of a vehicle’s lifetime.

  1. Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Björk Thorolfsdottir

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland, ii population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study, and iii effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses. Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1 If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2 If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3 Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.

  2. On evaluation of assessments of accruals of future dismantling costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labor, Bea [B D Projects 2013, Gdansk (Poland); Lindskog, Staffan [Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Solna (Sweden)

    2013-07-01

    A major prerequisite in order for civilian commercial nuclear energy production to qualify as sustainable energy production is that systems for the management of the nuclear waste legacy are in operation. These waste types are present in a range from very low short lived waste (VLLW) to long lived high level waste (HLW) (including the used nuclear fuel). The second prerequisite is that financial responsibilities or other constraints must not be passed on to coming generations. The first condition for qualification corresponds to the Polluters Pays Principle (PPP) which demands that the responsibility for the waste management rests solely with the polluter. The second qualification corresponds to the principle of fairness between generations and thus concerns the appropriate distribution of responsibilities between the generations. It is important to note that these two conditions must be met simultaneously, and that compliance with both is a necessary prerequisite in order for commercial use of nuclear power to qualify as a semi-sustainable energy source. Financial and technical planning for dismantling and decommissioning of nuclear installations cannot be regarded as successful unless it rests upon a distinctive way to describe and explain the well-founded values of different groups of stakeholders. This cumbersome task can be underpinned by transparent and easy to grasp models for calculation and estimation of future environmental liabilities. It essential that a systematic classification is done of all types of costs and that an effort is done to evaluate the precision level in the cost estimates. In this paper, a systematic and transparent way to develop a parametric approach that rest upon basic accounting standards is combined with data about younger stakeholder's values towards decommissioning and dismantling of nuclear installation. The former entity rests upon theoretical and practical methods from business administration, whilst the latter is based

  3. On evaluation of assessments of accruals of future dismantling costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labor, Bea; Lindskog, Staffan

    2013-01-01

    A major prerequisite in order for civilian commercial nuclear energy production to qualify as sustainable energy production is that systems for the management of the nuclear waste legacy are in operation. These waste types are present in a range from very low short lived waste (VLLW) to long lived high level waste (HLW) (including the used nuclear fuel). The second prerequisite is that financial responsibilities or other constraints must not be passed on to coming generations. The first condition for qualification corresponds to the Polluters Pays Principle (PPP) which demands that the responsibility for the waste management rests solely with the polluter. The second qualification corresponds to the principle of fairness between generations and thus concerns the appropriate distribution of responsibilities between the generations. It is important to note that these two conditions must be met simultaneously, and that compliance with both is a necessary prerequisite in order for commercial use of nuclear power to qualify as a semi-sustainable energy source. Financial and technical planning for dismantling and decommissioning of nuclear installations cannot be regarded as successful unless it rests upon a distinctive way to describe and explain the well-founded values of different groups of stakeholders. This cumbersome task can be underpinned by transparent and easy to grasp models for calculation and estimation of future environmental liabilities. It essential that a systematic classification is done of all types of costs and that an effort is done to evaluate the precision level in the cost estimates. In this paper, a systematic and transparent way to develop a parametric approach that rest upon basic accounting standards is combined with data about younger stakeholder's values towards decommissioning and dismantling of nuclear installation. The former entity rests upon theoretical and practical methods from business administration, whilst the latter is based

  4. Surviving the future academic libraries, quality and assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Munde, Gail

    2009-01-01

    Every academic library strives to make improvements - in its services, its effectiveness, and its contributions to overall university success. Every librarian wants to improve library quality, but few are knowledgeable or enthusiastic about the means and mechanisms of quality improvement. This book assists librarians to make sense of data collection, assessment, and comparative evaluation as stepping stones to transformative quality improvement. Creating value lies in a library's ability to understand, communicate and measure what matters to users, and what can be measured can be managed to successful outcomes. Complex and fragmented subject matter is synthesized into clear and logical presentation Focuses on current research and best practices International in scope.

  5. The Future of Preschool Prevention, Assessment, and Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudziak, Jim; Archangeli, Christopher

    2017-07-01

    Preschoolers are in the most rapid period of brain development. Environment shapes the structure and function of the developing brain. Promoting brain health requires cultivation of healthy environments at home, school, and in the community. This improves the emotional-behavioral and physical health of all children, can prevent problems in children at risk, and can alter the trajectory of children already suffering. For clinicians, this starts with assessing and treating the entire family, equipping parents with the principles of parent management training, and incorporating wellness prescriptions for nutrition, physical activity, music, and mindfulness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Modelling requirements for future assessments based on FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs that are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs that form part of the natural evolution of the system and those, which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics, subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. The aim of this document is to present the methodology that has been developed for deriving modelling requirements and to illustrate the application of the methodology by

  7. Wind diesel systems - design assessment and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Infield, D.G.; Scotney, A.; Lundsager, P.

    1992-01-01

    Diesels are the obvious form. of back-up electricity generation in small to medium sized wind systems. High wind penetrations pose significant technical problems for the system designer, ranging from component sizing to control specification and dynamic stability. A key role is seen for proven...... system models for assessing both dynamic characteristics and overall performance and economics. An introduction is provided to the Wind Diesel Engineering Design Toolkit currently under development (for implementation on PC) by a consortium of leading wind diesel experts, representing six European...

  8. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  9. Harmonization of future needs for dermal exposure assessment and modeling : a workshop report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Maidment, S.; Mcclaflin, J.L.; Fehrenbacher, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    Dermal exposure assessment and modeling is still in early phases of development. This article presents the results of a workshop organized to harmonize the future needs in this field. Methods for dermal exposure assessment either assess the mass of contaminant that is transferred to the skin, or the

  10. Probabilistic safety assessment past, present and future. An IAEA perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lederman, L.; Niehaus, F.; Tomic, B.

    1996-01-01

    Despite the high level of development that probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methods have reached, a number of issues place constraints on its use in supporting decision making on safety matters. A recent publication of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) represents an important step in reaching international consensus on the use of PSA. PSA is ''strongly encouraged'' by INSAG; however, it is noted that ''PSA methodology is not sufficiently mature for its present status to be frozen''. The main aspects of the report are discussed in this paper. The paper next discusses three main categories of PSA application, namely the adequacy of design and procedures, optimization of operational activities and regulatory applications. For each of the applications, the objectives, specific modelling requirements and the prospects for implementation are presented. Consistent with its statutory functions, an important aspect of the work of the IAEA is to reach international consensus on the possibilities of and limitations on the use of PSA methods. Whereas past efforts have been concentrated on promotion and assistance to perform Level 1 PSAs, work is now extending with emphasis on PSA applications, Level 2 and Level 3 analysis, external events and shutdown risks. The main elements of IAEA's PSA Programme are discussed. Finally some challenges related to the use of PSA in the backfitting of nuclear power plants in Eastern Europe and countries of the former USSR are addressed. (orig.)

  11. Assessing the future of a CSP industry in Morocco

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahia, Ramon; Arce, Rafael de; Medina, Eva

    2014-01-01

    This article presents the results of a survey on the feasibility of, and difficulties in, establishing a locally CSP manufacturing industry in Morocco. First, the survey explores which specific components of the CSP production chain could be manufactured in Morocco today and which would require moderate or significant changes being made in that country over the next decade. This paper contributes to demonstrating the potential for a CSP manufacturing industry in Morocco at the present time, ideal business models and current restrictions. Second, on the one hand this survey provides insight into the entrepreneurial, policy- and market-related barriers hampering the development of this industry and, on the other, the relative advantages offered by Morocco for the development of a CSP sector. Complementing the empirical findings on foreign direct investment determinants, this exercise stresses the key relevance of the economic context not only in terms of size, stability and predictability of the market, but also in regard to the critical importance of institutional and policy-related issues such as stability and public policy commitment. The results show that prior experience of firms in developing areas is a crucial issue in the accurate assessment of the risks and benefits associated with FDI decisions. - Highlights: • A CSP industry in Morocco is viable under certain adjustments in the next decade. • Policy related barriers are more critical than entrepreneurial or market obstacles. • It urges to provide a legislative and administrative support for CSP initiatives. • The volume of installed CSP capacity in the region doesn't reach a critical level. • Some foreign investors might have a negative miss perception of Moroccan reality

  12. Beyond speculative robot ethics: A vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plas, A.P. van der; Smits, M.; Wehrmann, C.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to

  13. Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

  14. The future of anticoagulation management in atrial fibrillation in Europe: An assessment of today's challenges with recommendations for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichten, Catherine A; Castle-Clarke, Sophie; Manville, Catriona; Horvath, Veronika; Robin, Enora; Krapels, Joachim; Parks, Sarah; Sim, Megan; van Zijverden, Olga; Chataway, Joanna

    2015-11-30

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of cardiac arrhythmia, affecting approximately 1-2 per cent of the population worldwide. Those who suffer from AF have a five times higher risk of stroke. AF prevalence increases with age and it affects roughly 18 per cent of the population over 85. Consequently, as populations age, AF is becoming an increasingly significant public health issue. Over recent years there have been developments in treatment and management options, both for treating the arrhythmia directly, and assessing and reducing the risk of AF-related stroke, but there is a need to ensure that available knowledge is applied optimally to benefit patients so that opportunities to prevent AF-related stroke are not missed. The aims of this project were to assess the current landscape and explore the direction of future developments in AF management in Europe, with a focus on the use of anticoagulants in the prevention of AF-related stroke. Through rapid evidence assessment, key informant interviews, PESTLE analysis and the development and exploration of future scenarios, we have developed sets of shorter- and longer-term recommendations for improving AF-related patient outcomes. The short-term recommendations are: i) improve AF awareness among the public and policymakers; ii) support education about AF management for healthcare professionals and patients; and iii) maintain engagement in AF-related research across the health services.

  15. Environmental Assessment for the Aeromedical Evacuation Formal Training Unit, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    pennsylvanica), White Ash (Fraxinus americana), Shingle Oak (Quercus imbricaria), Northern Red Oak (Quercus rubra), Slippery Elm (Ulmus rubra...American Elm (Ulmus americana), Eastern Cottonwood (Populus deltoides), Silver Maple (Acer saccharinum), Sassafras (Sassafras albidum), Post Oak (Quercus

  16. Assessment of Aeromedical Evacuation Transport Patient Outcomes With and Without Cabin Altitude Restriction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-24

    adverse events occurred in cardiac patients; most of the events required supplemental oxygen due to the development of chest pain . The adverse clinical...5.48, p = 0.02), but only 3 were clinically relevant—1 chest pain (CAR) and 3 desaturations (non-CAR). Appendix C contains additional PMQR...Supplemental Patient Diagnosis Information Diagnoses at Discharge (outcomes) CAR Non-CAR Head & Neck (including cervical spine) • Fatal head

  17. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

  18. Portfolio assessments for future generation investment in newly industrializing countries – A case study of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper assesses future electricity generation portfolios in Thailand in 2030 given uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, electricity demand, and capital costs. Thailand faces challenges for generation investment given its rapid socio-economic progress and fast growing demand. A novel generation investment and planning decision-support tool which incorporates a Monte Carlo extension to conventional optimal generation mix methods combined with portfolio-based analysis techniques, is used. The tool can formally assess tradeoffs between expected future generation costs, cost uncertainties, and CO 2 emissions for the range of different generation portfolios. Results highlight that different levels of future carbon pricing will have significant impacts on the most appropriate generation portfolios. The impact of carbon pricing, however, is not on the appropriate proportion of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) in the mix but, instead, on the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. Compared with the current proposed 2030 generation mix, it is possible that there are other generation portfolios that offer lower expected costs, cost uncertainty, and CO 2 emissions depending on future carbon pricing. Results suggest that this investment decision-support approach may have value for electric utilities and policy-makers contemplating significant generation investments under high future uncertainty and conflicting policy objectives. -- Highlights: ► Assess Thailand's future generation portfolios in 2030 under uncertainties. ► Future carbon prices have significant impacts on the appropriate generation mixes. ► Carbon pricing affects the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. ► There may be more appropriate alternatives than the proposed 2030 generation mix. ► This decision-support approach has value for utility and policy decision-making.

  19. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  20. Beyond speculative robot ethics: a vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Plas, Arjanna; Smits, Martijntje; Wehrmann, Caroline

    2010-11-01

    In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to some promising co-designed robot concepts in which jointly articulated moral guidelines are embedded. With our model, we think to have designed an interesting response on a recent call for a less speculative ethics of technology by encouraging discussions about the quality of positive and negative visions on the future of robotics.

  1. Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

  2. How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Maguire, Kaitlin C; Lorenz, David J

    2018-03-23

    Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Joint Use of the MAB-II and MicroCog for Improvements in the Clinical and Neuropsychological Screening and Aeromedical Waiver Process of Rated USAF Pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    medical flight screening and the aeromedical waiver process ( Olea & Ree, 1994; Ree & Carretta, 1996; Ree, Carretta, & Teachout, 1995). Currently, the...Student pilots with high scores on ability tests are more likely to complete training ( Olea & Ree, 1994; Ree & Carretta, 1996; Ree, Carretta, & Teachout...Matrix differential calculus with applications in statistics and econometrics. New York, NY: John Wiley. Olea , M., & Ree, M.J. (1994

  4. ASSESSMENT OF STUDENTS’ PROFESSIONAL COMPETENCIES – THE FUTURE TEACHERS OF MATHEMATICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariya B. Shashkina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the investigation is to describe the authors’ approach to the assessment of the professional competence of the future teacher of mathematics.Methods. The methods involve comparative analysis of the Professional Standard of the teacher and the Federal State Educational Standards in teacher education, as well as the method of predictive analysis of modern educational situation.Results. Qualimetric approach to the structuring of the professional competencies of students is described; it allows concretizing the assessment object, to select the criteria and levels of its formedness, to trace the dynamics of development in the medium of profile preparation of a bachelor. The methodology of assessment a professional-profile competence of the future mathematics teachers is proposed; examples of the competence-assessment tools are provided.Scientific novelty. The study gives a detailed analysis of developing the innovative approach to competencies assessment as metasubject learning outcomes.Practical significance. The proposed method of competencies assessment can be used in the mathematical preparation of the future mathematics teacher, and can serve as a basis for monitoring the professional competencies of students.

  5. Visions about Future: A New Scale Assessing Optimism, Pessimism, and Hope in Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Sgaramella, Teresa Maria; Ferrari, Lea; Nota, Laura; Santilli, Sara; Soresi, Salvatore

    2017-01-01

    This article reports the development and psychometric properties of visions about future (VAF), an instrument assessing hope, optimism, and pessimism. Three different studies involving Italian adolescents were conducted. With the first study 22 items were developed and the factor structure was verified. The second study, involving a second sample…

  6. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

    2015-01-01

    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  7. Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Japan: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikuma, Toshinori; Matsuda, Osamu; Fujita, Kazuhiro; Ueno, Kazuhiko

    2016-01-01

    This article briefly reviews the history of intellectual assessment with children and youth in Japan, as well as current practices and future directions. The history of intelligence test use in Japan began in the early 20th century. Since the 21st century, three major intelligence tests, namely, the Wechsler Intelligence Scales, the Kaufman…

  8. ASSESSMENT OF ALLERGENIC POTENTIAL OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS: AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbstractSpeakers and participants in the Workshop Assessment of the Allergenic Potential of Genetically Modified Foods met in breakout groups to discuss a number of issues including needs for future research. There was agreement that research should move forward quickly in t...

  9. Future Directions in Assessment: Influences of Standards and Implications for Language Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Troy L.; Malone, Margaret E.; Winke, Paula

    2018-01-01

    As "Foreign Language Annals" concludes its 50th anniversary, it is fitting to review the past and peer into the future of standards-based education and assessment. Standards are a common yardstick used by educators and researchers as a powerful framework for conceptualizing teaching and measuring learner success. The impact of standards…

  10. Impact assessment of the carbon reduction strategy for transport, low carbon transport : a greener future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    This is an impact assessment for the Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport (DfT, 2009), Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future, which is part of the UK Governments wider UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (DECC, 2009), Britains path to ta...

  11. Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A.

    1999-09-01

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent nor the regulator

  12. Assessment approaches in massive open online courses: Possibilities, challenges and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Yao; Suen, Hoi K.

    2018-03-01

    The development of massive open online courses (MOOCs) has launched an era of large-scale interactive participation in education. While massive open enrolment and the advances of learning technology are creating exciting potentials for lifelong learning in formal and informal ways, the implementation of efficient and effective assessment is still problematic. To ensure that genuine learning occurs, both assessments for learning (formative assessments), which evaluate students' current progress, and assessments of learning (summative assessments), which record students' cumulative progress, are needed. Providers' more recent shift towards the granting of certificates and digital badges for course accomplishments also indicates the need for proper, secure and accurate assessment results to ensure accountability. This article examines possible assessment approaches that fit open online education from formative and summative assessment perspectives. The authors discuss the importance of, and challenges to, implementing assessments of MOOC learners' progress for both purposes. Various formative and summative assessment approaches are then identified. The authors examine and analyse their respective advantages and disadvantages. They conclude that peer assessment is quite possibly the only universally applicable approach in massive open online education. They discuss the promises, practical and technical challenges, current developments in and recommendations for implementing peer assessment. They also suggest some possible future research directions.

  13. Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations

  14. Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    1999-09-01

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier tounderstand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent

  15. Assessing Future Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garry D. Peterson

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which the projected use of ecological services is substantially different. The work reported in this paper demonstrates how scenarios can be developed for a region and provides a starting point for a participatory discussion of alternative futures for northern Wisconsin. Although the future is unknowable, we hope that the assessment process begun in this paper will help the people of the Northern Highlands Lake District choose the future path of their region.

  16. Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

  17. Performance assessment for future low-level waste disposal facilities at ORNL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, D.W.; Kocher, D.C.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses the strategy for waste management on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) and the approach to preparing future performance assessments that has evolved from previous performance assessment studies of low-level radioactive waste disposal on the ORR. The strategy for waste management is based on the concept that waste classification should be determined by performance assessment other than the sources of waste. This dose-based strategy for waste classification and management places special importance on the preparation and interpretation of waste disposal performance assessments for selecting appropriate disposal technologies and developing waste acceptance criteria. Additionally, the challenges to be overcome in the preparation of performance assessments are discussed. 7 refs

  18. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

    2016-07-01

    Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract for presentation on Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions. The abstract is attached.

  20. Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisinella, Valentina

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... field. The quantitative modelling implications were tested within real-scale LCA models focusing on the management of residual waste in Denmark. In a wide range of scenarios, this thesis addressed the influence on the LCA model results of realistic technology and waste composition uncertainties, as well...

  1. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

    2007-01-01

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

  2. Assessment of present and future large-scale semiconductor detector systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spieler, H.G.; Haller, E.E.

    1984-11-01

    The performance of large-scale semiconductor detector systems is assessed with respect to their theoretical potential and to the practical limitations imposed by processing techniques, readout electronics and radiation damage. In addition to devices which detect reaction products directly, the analysis includes photodetectors for scintillator arrays. Beyond present technology we also examine currently evolving structures and techniques which show potential for producing practical devices in the foreseeable future

  3. Assessment of Future Skills Requirements in the Hospitality Sector in Ireland, 2015-2020

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The hospitality sector is one of the most important employment services sectors in the Irish economy, and there is significant potential for future expansion. The objective of this study is to assess the skills demand needs arising within the Hospitality sector in Ireland – hotels, restaurants, bars, canteens and catering – over the period to 2020. The aim is to ensure that there will be the right supply of skills to help drive domestic hospitality sector business and employment growth.

  4. The Application of Isotope Techniques in Nutrient Assessment and Management in Riverine Systems. Present and Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ito, M.; Newman, B. D. [International Atomic Energy Agency, Isotope Hydrology Section, Vienna (Austria); Hadwen, W. L. [Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University - Nathan Campus, Brisbane, Queensland (Australia); Rogers, K. [National Isotope Center, GNS Science, Lower Hutt (New Zealand); Mayer, B. [Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada); Hein, T. [Wasser Cluster Lunz, Interuniversitary Center for Aquatic Research, Lunz-See, and University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Institute of Hydrobiology and Aquatic Ecosystem Management, Vienna (Austria); Stellato, L. [Centre for Isotopic Research on Cultural and Environmental Heritage (CIRCE), Seconda Universita degli Studi di Napoli, Caserta (Italy); Ohte, N. [Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan); Mclaughlin, K. [Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Costa Mesa, California (United States)

    2013-05-15

    A variety of sources contribute to nutrients in rivers and nutrients may subsequently take various pathways and undergo different transformation processes. We first review representative types of isotopes and the roles of isotope techniques that have been or could be used for nutrient assessment and management. We then present technical, financial and logistical matters to be considered in selecting appropriate isotope techniques for nutrient assessment and management. Lastly we propose several approaches on the application of isotope techniques to make more effective the studies and management of nutrients in rivers in the near future. (author)

  5. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moren, Lena

    2006-10-01

    This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis

  6. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moren, Lena

    2006-10-15

    This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis.

  7. Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Lebrun, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

  8. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  9. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  10. Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In September 2013, EPA announced the availability of the final report, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments...

  11. Endotracheal tube and laryngeal mask airway cuff volume changes with altitude: a rule of thumb for aeromedical transport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Catherine; Parkinson, Neil; Bleetman, Anthony

    2007-03-01

    Helicopters and light (unpressurised) aircraft are used increasingly for the transport of ventilated patients. Most of these patients are ventilated through endotracheal tubes (ETTs), others through laryngeal mask airways (LMAs). The cuffs of both ETTs and LMAs inflate with increases in altitude as barometric pressure decreases (30 mbar/1000 feet). Tracheal mucosa perfusion becomes compromised at a pressure of approximately 30 cm H2O; critical perfusion pressure is 50 cm H2O. The change in dimensions of the inflated cuffs of a size 8 ETT and a size 5 LMA were measured with digital callipers at 1000 feet intervals in the unpressurised cabin of an Agusta 109 helicopter used by the Warwickshire and Northamptonshire Air Ambulance. A linear expansion in cuff dimensions as a function of altitude increase was identified. For ETTs, a formula for removal of air from the cuff with increasing altitude was calculated and is recommended for use in aeromedical transfers. This is 1/17x1.1 = 0.06 ml/1000 foot ascent/ml initial cuff inflation. The data for LMA cuff expansion failed to show significant correlation with altitude change. Further work is required to determine a similar rule of thumb for LMA cuff deflation.

  12. Postcessation weight gain concern as a barrier to smoking cessation: Assessment considerations and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germeroth, Lisa J; Levine, Michele D

    2018-01-01

    Concern about postcessation weight gain may be one potential barrier to quitting smoking. In this 'mini-review' of recent literature, we summarize findings on the relationship between postcessation weight gain concern and smoking cessation, and evaluate varied use of postcessation weight gain concern assessments and potential moderators of the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation association. We conducted a search using the terms "smoking" OR "smoking cessation" AND "weight concern" for articles published between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2016. We identified 17 studies assessing postcessation weight gain concern, seven of which evaluated the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation association. The relationship between postcessation weight gain concern and smoking cessation was mixed. Recent studies varied in their assessments of postcessation weight gain concern, many of which were not validated and assessed correlates of this construct. Studies varied in their adjustment of demographic (e.g., sex), smoking-specific (e.g., smoking level), and weight-specific (e.g., body mass index) variables. The use of non-validated assessments and variability in testing covariates/moderators may contribute to conflicting results regarding the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation relationship. We recommend validating an assessment of postcessation weight gain concern, maintaining vigilance in testing and reporting covariates/moderators, and investigating trajectories of this construct over time and by smoking status to inform future assessment and intervention efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  14. Looking Ahead: The Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munn, R.E.

    1994-01-01

    Proceeding of a workshop on the Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments (CEA's) were presented.. Also included were three working group reports and papers presented at the conference. The issue of the concept of Cumulative Environmental Assessments was summarized, along with the current transformation to a more global outlook. The concepts and methodological questions associated with ecology and economics were tackled. CEA methods were discussed and a contrast was made with land-use planning. The importance of long-term monitoring programs was introduced and examples of early warning systems were given. Social science issues behind CEAs were also discussed. Recommendation e for preparing CEA's, the design of early warning monitoring systems, and public involvement, were made.. Contributed papers covered topics related to environmental assessment, pollution, and climate change

  15. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  16. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  17. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-10-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  18. Development and validation of an instrument to assess future orientation and resilience in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maggio, Ilaria; Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore

    2016-08-01

    The study is aimed at providing the development and initial validation of the Design My Future (DMF), which may be administered in career counseling and research activities to assess adolescents' future orientation and resilience. Two studies with two independent samples of Italian adolescents were conducted to examine psychometric requisites of DMF. Specifically, in the first study, after developing items and examined the content validity, the factorial structure, reliability and discriminant validity of the DMF were tested. In the second study, the measurement invariance across gender, conducing a sequence of nested CFA models, was evaluated. Results showed good psychometric support for the instrument with Italian adolescents. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A Tool for Assessing Future Capacity Loss Due to Sedimentation in the United States' Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinson, A. O.; Baker, B.; White, K. D.

    2017-12-01

    Federal reservoirs are critical components of the United States' water supply, flood risk management, hydropower and navigation infrastructure. These reservoirs included capacity for storage loss due to the deposition of sediment by inflowing streams in their original design. However, the actual rate of capacity loss experienced is controlled in part by climate, topography, soils, and land use/land cover, and may vary from the design. To assess the current and future vulnerability of its reservoirs to sedimentation. USACE has developed an online planning tool to identify USACE reservoirs where sedimentation is currently a problem (e.g., sedimentation rate exceeds design sedimentation rate, or zone losses disproportionately affect authorized purposes), and reservoirs where rates are expected to increase significantly in the future. The goal is to be able to prioritize operation and maintenance actions to minimize the effects of reservoir capacity loss on authorized purposes and help maximize reservoir use life.

  20. Securing the future in the anthropocene: A critical analysis of the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P. Marzec

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This commentary analyzes the ontological character of the United Nations’ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005 and its attempt to imagine business-as-usual and transformative human-environmental futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA constitutes the first and most significant attempt by an international political body to incorporate environmental concerns into the field of imaginative scenario building. In addition to its lengthy report on the threatened status of planetary ecosystems, the MA contains extensive “future scenarios” that imagine how human-environmental relations might unfold over the course of the twenty-first century. These scenarios arise out of the lineage of military scenarios generated during the Cold War, and continue to inform UN assessments in the present. This commentary explores how a politico-military concern for security informs the framework of the scenarios, and limits how the MA characterizes the fundamental human act of narration. In the process, the commentary explores alternative ontologies of narration and how these may lead to more transformative narratological interventions.

  1. The utility of the historical record in assessing future carbon budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Allen, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    It has long been known that the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most physically relevant determiner of long-lived anthropogenic climate change, with an approximately linear relationship between CO2-induced global mean surface warming and cumulative emissions. The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emission and global mean warming using observations to date. Here we show that simple regression analysis indicates that the 1.5°C carbon budget would be exhausted after nearly three decades of current emissions, substantially in excess of many estimates from Earth System Models. However, there are many reasons to be cautious about carbon budget assessments from the historical record alone. Accounting for the uncertainty in non-CO2 radiative forcing using a simple climate model and a standard optimal fingerprinting detection attribution technique gives substantial uncertainty in the contribution of CO2 warming to date, and hence the transient climate response to cumulative emissions. Additionally, the existing balance between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing may change in the future under ambitious mitigation scenarios as non-CO2 emissions become more (or less) important to global mean temperature changes. Natural unforced variability can also have a substantial impact on estimates of remaining carbon budgets. By examining all warmings of a given magnitude in both the historical record and past and future ESM simulations we quantify the impact unforced climate variability may have on estimates of remaining carbon budgets, derived as a function of estimated non-CO2 warming and future emission scenario. In summary, whilst the historical record can act as a useful test of climate models, uncertainties in the response to future cumulative emissions remain large and extrapolations of future carbon budgets from the historical record alone should be treated with caution.

  2. Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

  3. The impact of adolescent females' assessments of parenthood and employment on plans for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, L A

    1986-02-01

    This study explores adolescent females' assessments of the rewards and costs of employment and parenthood, and the impact of these assessments on their plans for organizing their adult lives. 549 young women enrolled in the 11th and 12 grades at public schools in New York City completed questionnaires addressing their future work and fertility plans, characteristics of their present family life, and their assessments of how rewarding and costly the roles of employee and parent would be to them. Results suggest that daughters of homemakers and daughters of employed women differ in their assessment of each role, and take different factors into consideration when making these assessments. In evaluating work, daughters whose mothers are employed were likely to depend on their mothers' experiences for guidance. On the other hand, daughters whose mothers are homemakers have to go through a more elaborate process of deduction. They appear to assess whether their mothers are happy where they are now and then project whether another role would be more satisfying. These young women also tend to incorporate the opinion of the father more than do daughters of employed mothers. In evaluating the impact of children, the young woman's relation with her own mother is a critical factor affecting both group' assessments of the costs of children as well as the employed group's assessments of the rewards of children. Finally, the limitations of the sample should be kept in mind when discussing the results. Though the sample was large numerically, the overall response rate was low. In addition, the sample consisted of a large number of Catholic respondents.

  4. Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 7: Study recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    Research and analysis tasks to alleviate negative impacts, to augment positive impacts, or to better understand the impacts produced by the potential introduction of the alternate transportation technologies are identified. The project team's recommendations on research and analysis efforts which have resulted from the technology assessment are provided. Many of the recommendations apply to the future supply of intercity passenger transportation services, categorized by mode. Other recommendations pertain to broad issues in intercity transportation--e.g., finance, regulation, traveler values--that will affect all modes.

  5. Integrated impact assessment in the UK--use, efficacy and future development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milner, Susan J.; Bailey, Cathy; Deans, Julia; Pettigrew, Dulcie

    2005-01-01

    This paper reports on the findings of an English Department of Health funded study that mapped out examples of integrated impact assessment (IIA) activity, mainly in the UK. Approximately 350 regional and local organisations that have policy and policy implementation roles were contacted via e-mail and from these, 77 telephone interviews were carried out. The interviews revealed 21 examples of IIA being used or developed within the UK. The 77 interviews also generated a rich discussion about the use, efficacy and future development of IIA. Although the findings indicate little IIA activity in the UK, discussions with interviewees suggest that there is growing receptiveness to integrating different forms of assessment into a single assessment process. In part this appears to be driven by sustainable development objectives, both at a strategic and at a local level. In part receptivity to IIA may also be driven by a growing interest in health impact assessment (HIA). There are advocates of the need to integrate health criteria more fully into other forms of impact assessment. The study also highlights the challenges involved in trying to develop IIA methods that are adaptable, flexible and tailored to the different needs of policy-makers and planners

  6. Preliminary assessment of future refining impacts of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hadder, G.R.

    1991-09-01

    A preliminary assessment of the future refining impacts of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 has been performed with the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting Systems. The assessment suggests that gasoline reformulation costs in domestic coastal and near-coastal refining regions in the year 2000 could be 3.5 to 5.6 cents per gallon (in terms of 1989 currency). For heating value equivalent to one gallon of conventional gasoline, the regional total added costs (including reformulation costs) for reformulated gasoline could be 5.9 to 8.0 cents. In blending reformulated gasolines, the reduction of butane for lower Reid vapor pressure and the reduction of reformate for lower aromatics are generally compensated by increased percentages of alkylate and/or straight run naphthas. Relatively larger refinery process capacity additions are required for butane isomerization, alkylation, aromatics recovery, and distillate hydrotreating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 18 tabs

  7. Beyond integrated safeguards: Performance-based assessments for future nuclear controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong Sylvester, Kory W.

    2001-01-01

    Full text: In the future, if the nuclear nonproliferation and arms control agendas are to advance, they will likely become increasingly seen as parallel undertakings with the objective of comprehensive cradle-to-grave controls over nuclear materials and possibly even warheads removed from defense programs along with materials in civilian use. This 'back to the future' prospect was envisioned in the Acheson-Lillienthal Report and the Baruch Plan, and more modestly in the Atoms-for-Peace Proposal. Unlike the grand plans of the early nuclear years, today's and tomorrow's undertakings will more likely consist of a series of incremental steps with the goal of expanding nuclear controls. These steps will be undertaken at a time of fundamental change in the IAEA safeguards system, and they will be influenced by those changes in profound ways. This prospective influence needs to be taken into account as the IAEA develops and implements integrated safeguards, including its efforts to establish new safeguards criteria, undertake technological and administrative improvements in safeguards, implement credible capabilities for the detection of undeclared nuclear facilities and activities and, perhaps, provide for a more intensive involvement in applying safeguards in new roles such as the verification of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. Performance-based criteria offer one promising way to address the effectiveness of integrated safeguards and to provide a common means of assessing the other key areas of a comprehensive approach to nuclear controls as these develop independently and to the extent that they are coordinated in the future. (author)

  8. Methodological considerations and future insights for 24-hour dietary recall assessment in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Emma; Bradley, Jennifer

    2018-03-01

    Dietary assessment has come under much criticism of late to the extent that it has been questioned whether self-reported methods of dietary assessment are worth doing at all. Widespread under-reporting of energy intake, limitations due to memory, changes to intake due to the burden of recording and social desirability bias all impact significantly on the accuracy of the dietary information collected. Under-reporting of energy intakes has long been recognized as a problem in dietary research with doubly labeled water measures of energy expenditure uncovering significant under-reporting of energy intakes across different populations and different dietary assessment methods. In this review we focus on dietary assessment with children with particular attention on the 24-hour dietary recall method. We look at the level of under-reporting of energy intakes and how this tends to change with age, gender and body mass index. We discuss potential alternatives to self-reported (or proxy-reported) dietary assessment methods with children, such as biomarkers, and how these do not enable the collection of information important to public health nutrition such as the cooking method, the mixture of foods eaten together or the context in which the food is consumed. We conclude that despite all of the challenges and flaws, the data collected using self-reported dietary assessment methods are extremely valuable. Research into dietary assessment methodology has resulted in significant increases in our understanding of the limitations of self-reported methods and progressive improvements in the accuracy of the data collected. Hence, future investment in dietary surveillance and in improving self-reported methods of intake can make vital contributions to our understanding of dietary intakes and are thus warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  10. The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudard, Ludovic; Madani, Kaveh; Romerio, Franco

    2016-04-01

    The future of hydropower depends on various drivers, and in particular on climate change, electricity market evolution and innovation in new storage technologies. Their impacts on the power plants' profitability can widely differ in regards of scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In this respect, the risk should not be expressed only in terms of expected revenue, but also of uncertainty. These two aspects must be considered to assess the future of hydropower. This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change, electricity market volatility and competing energy storage's technologies and quantifies them in terms of annual revenue. Our simulations integrate a glacio-hydrological model (GERM) with various electricity market data and models (mean reversion and jump diffusion). The medium (2020-50) and long-term (2070-2100) are considered thanks to various greenhouse gas scenarios (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and the stochastic approach for the electricity prices. An algorithm named "threshold acceptance" is used to optimize the reservoir operations. The impacts' scale, and the related uncertainties are presented for Mauvoisin, which is a storage-hydropower plant situated in the Swiss Alps, and two generic pure pumped-storage installations, which are assessed with the prices of 17 European electricity markets. The discussion will highlight the key differences between the impacts brought about by the drivers.

  11. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Popescu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB, and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

    Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  12. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, I.; Brandimarte, L.; Perera, M. S. U.; Peviani, M.

    2012-08-01

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  13. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-12-15

    This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

  14. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-12-01

    This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

  15. Impact of a Cross-Institutional Assessment Designed to Shape Future IT Professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace Tan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available IT graduates need a suite of technical competencies and soft skills married with an understanding of the social and business contexts of the systems that they build. To instill in students an awareness of current IT industry practice coupled with the broader impact of their discipline in society, academics from Victoria University and Federation University initiated an across-institutional collaboration. The initiative resulted in a common formative assessment task undertaken by teams of students enrolled in each institution’s professional development units. An initial survey of students was undertaken prior to the assessment task. The survey queried students’ perceptions of a broad range of professional attitudes and skill sets needed by IT professionals when compared to non-skilled workers. Upon the completion of the assessment task, students were surveyed again as to their perceptions of the importance of personal skills, technical competencies, professional and team working skills, workplace knowledge, and cultural awareness for their future professional lives. Comparisons of both surveys’ results revealed that the cohort had a greater appreciation of technical abilities and team-working skills post the assessment task.

  16. Determination of significance in Ecological Impact Assessment: Past change, current practice and future improvements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Briggs, Sam; Hudson, Malcolm D., E-mail: mdh@soton.ac.uk

    2013-01-15

    Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) is an important tool for conservation and achieving sustainable development. 'Significant' impacts are those which disturb or alter the environment to a measurable degree. Significance is a crucial part of EcIA, our understanding of the concept in practice is vital if it is to be effective as a tool. This study employed three methods to assess how the determination of significance has changed through time, what current practice is, and what would lead to future improvements. Three data streams were collected: interviews with expert stakeholders, a review of 30 Environmental Statements and a broad-scale survey of the United Kingdom Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (IEEM) members. The approach taken in the determination of significance has become more standardised and subjectivity has become constrained through a transparent framework. This has largely been driven by a set of guidelines produced by IEEM in 2006. The significance of impacts is now more clearly justified and the accuracy with which it is determined has improved. However, there are limitations to accuracy and effectiveness of the determination of significance. These are the quality of baseline survey data, our scientific understanding of ecological processes and the lack of monitoring and feedback of results. These in turn are restricted by the limited resources available in consultancies. The most notable recommendations for future practice are the implementation of monitoring and the publication of feedback, the creation of a central database for baseline survey data and the streamlining of guidance. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The assessment of significance has changed markedly through time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The IEEM guidelines have driven a standardisation of practice. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Currently limited by quality of baseline data and scientific understanding. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Monitoring

  17. Environmental Assessment for Ongoing and Future Operations at U.S. Navy Dabob Bay and Hood Canal Military Operating Areas

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    ...) of the Department of the Navy gives notice that an Environmental Assessment (EA) has been prepared for the proposed action of implement inc an Operations Management Plan for ongoing and future operations at the U.S...

  18. Tidal current energy resource assessment in Ireland: Current status and future update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Rourke, Fergal; Boyle, Fergal; Reynolds, Anthony

    2010-01-01

    Interest in renewable energy in Ireland has increased continually over the past decade. This interest is due primarily to security of supply issues and the effects of climate change. Ireland imports over 90% of its primary energy consumption, mostly in the form of fossil fuels. The exploitation of Ireland's vast indigenous renewable energy resources is required in order to reduce this over-dependence on fossil fuel imports to meet energy demand. Various targets have been set by the Irish government to incorporate renewable energy technologies into Ireland's energy market. As a result of these targets, the development in wind energy has increased substantially over the past decade; however this method of energy extraction is intermittent and unpredictable. Ireland has an excellent tidal current energy resource and the use of this resource will assist in the development of a sustainable energy future. Energy extraction using tidal current energy technologies offers a vast and predictable energy resource. This paper reviews the currently accepted tidal current energy resource assessment for Ireland. This assessment was compiled by Sustainable Energy Ireland in a report in 2004. The assessment employed a 2-dimensional numerical model of the tidal current velocities around Ireland, and from this numerical model the theoretical tidal current energy resource was identified. With the introduction of constraints and limitations, the technical, practical, accessible and viable tidal current energy resources were obtained. The paper discusses why the assessment needs updating including the effect on the assessment of the current stage of development of tidal current turbines and their deployment technology. (author)

  19. Current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. 1. Features and issues of probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) could play an important role in assuring safety of NPPs. However PRA had not always effectively used, which was indicated in Japanese government's report on Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. At the Risk Technical Committee (RTC) of Standards Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan, preparation of standards (implementing criteria) focusing on PRA methodology and investigation on basic philosophy for use of PRA had been in progress. Based on activities of RTC, a serial in three articles including this described current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. This article introduced features and issues of PRA methodology related to the use of PRA. Features of PRA methodology could be shown as (1) systematic and comprehensive understanding of risk, (2) support of grading approach, (3) identification of effective safety upgrade measures and (4) quantitative understanding of effects of uncertainty. Issues of PRA methodology were (1) extension of PRA application area, (2) upgrade of PRA methodology, (3) quality assurance of PRA, (4) treatment of uncertainty and (5) quantitative evaluation criteria. (T. Tanaka)

  20. Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raposo, Juan Ramón; Dafonte, Jorge; Molinero, Jorge

    2013-03-01

    Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer-autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.

  1. Assessing environmental impacts of offshore wind farms: lessons learned and recommendations for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Helen; Brookes, Kate L; Thompson, Paul M

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind power provides a valuable source of renewable energy that can help reduce carbon emissions. Technological advances are allowing higher capacity turbines to be installed and in deeper water, but there is still much that is unknown about the effects on the environment. Here we describe the lessons learned based on the recent literature and our experience with assessing impacts of offshore wind developments on marine mammals and seabirds, and make recommendations for future monitoring and assessment as interest in offshore wind energy grows around the world. The four key lessons learned that we discuss are: 1) Identifying the area over which biological effects may occur to inform baseline data collection and determining the connectivity between key populations and proposed wind energy sites, 2) The need to put impacts into a population level context to determine whether they are biologically significant, 3) Measuring responses to wind farm construction and operation to determine disturbance effects and avoidance responses, and 4) Learn from other industries to inform risk assessments and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. As the number and size of offshore wind developments increases, there will be a growing need to consider the population level consequences and cumulative impacts of these activities on marine species. Strategically targeted data collection and modeling aimed at answering questions for the consenting process will also allow regulators to make decisions based on the best available information, and achieve a balance between climate change targets and environmental legislation.

  2. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

  3. Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

  4. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  5. Assessing future economic impacts of acidic deposition on the recreational fishery of eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    A study was carried out to assess the socio-economic impacts and net economic value effects related to potential reduction in acidic deposition on the sports fishery of eastern Canada. Impacts and net economic effects that would have occurred from 1950 to 1985 if emission/deposition controls were in place are measured. Impacts and net economic effects that will occur from 1986 to 2021 if controls are put in place in the future are also measured. The study incorporated the latest data describing the relationship of acidic deposition to lake pH levels and ultimate impact on fish survival, and applies a spatial analysis system to model changes in sport fish availability with respect to pH changes and fish survival responses. It was found that if emission controls were put in place beginning in 1950 the Canadian economy would have accrued $4.3 billion in net economic value from 1950 to 1985 inclusive. The 1986 value of the historical stream of losses that occurred because controls were not put in place is $24 billion assuming a 10% rate of return. If controls were put in place in the future, net economic value to Canada due to increased angler activity would be $4.2 billion for the period 1986-2021. The value in 1986 would be $925 million. 9 figs., 34 tabs

  6. Information resources for assessing health effects from chemical exposure: Challenges, priorities, and future issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seigel, S. [National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Issues related to developing information resources for assessing the health effects from chemical exposure include the question of how to address the individual political issues relevant to identifying and determining the timeliness, scientific credibility, and completeness of such kinds of information resources. One of the important ways for agencies to share information is through connection tables. This type of software is presently being used to build information products for some DHHS agencies. One of the challenges will be to convince vendors of data of the importance of trying to make data files available to communities that need them. In the future, information processing will be conducted with neural networks, object-oriented database management systems, and fuzzy-set technologies, and meta analysis techniques.

  7. Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

    2013-01-01

    This paper employs a novel Monte-Carlo based generation portfolio assessment tool to explore the implications of increasing wind penetration and carbon prices within future electricity generation portfolios under considerable uncertainty. This tool combines optimal generation mix techniques with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis methods to determine expected overall generation costs, associated cost uncertainty and expected CO 2 emissions for different possible generation portfolios. A case study of an electricity industry with coal, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) and wind generation options that faces uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing, electricity demand and plant construction costs is presented to illustrate some of the key issues associated with growing wind penetrations. The case study uses half-hourly demand and wind generation data from South Eastern Australia, and regional estimates of new-build plant costs and characteristics. Results suggest that although wind generation generally increases overall industry costs, it reduces associated cost uncertainties and CO 2 emissions. However, there are some cases in which wind generation can reduce the overall costs of generation portfolios. The extent to which wind penetration affects industry expected costs and uncertainties depends on the level of carbon price and the conventional technology mix in the portfolios. - Highlights: ► A probabilistic portfolio analysis tool to assess generation portfolios with wind power. ► Explore the impacts of wind penetrations and carbon prices under uncertainties. ► Wind generation increases overall portfolio costs but reduces cost risks and emissions. ► The value of wind power depends on the carbon price and the technology mix. ► Complex interactions between wind penetration level and carbon pricing.

  8. Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

    2017-04-01

    The Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) is a wine region, in the northern Portugal, recognized for the Porto wine, which is responsible for more than 60% of the total value of national wine exportations. Since the viticulture is highly dependent on weather/climate patterns, the global warming is expected to affect the areas suitable to the growth of a certain variety of grape, its production and quality. This highlights the need of regional studies that assess the future climate changes effects in the vineyard, which might allow an early adjustment. We explore future climate change in the DDR region using a high-resolution regional climate model for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Two future periods have been simulated using the emission scenario RCP8.5 - for the mid- (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100) - and compared to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCP8.5 is a "baseline" scenario without any climate mitigation and corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to other scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our regional WRF implementation uses three online-nested domains with increasing resolution at a downscaling ratio of three. The coarser domain of 81-km resolution covers part of the North Atlantic Ocean and most of the Europe. The innermost 9-km horizontal resolution domain includes the Iberian Peninsula, a portion of Northern Africa and the adjacent part of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our study uses this 9-km resolution domain and focuses on a confined area, which comprises the DDR. Such dynamical downscaling approach gives an advantage to assess climate effects on the DDR region, where the high horizontal resolution allows including effects of the oceanic coastline, local riverbeds and complex topography. The climatology of the DDR region determines the more suitable wine variety

  9. Comprehensive Care Plan Development Using Resident Assessment Instrument Framework: Past, Present, and Future Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Ellen Dellefield

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Development of the comprehensive care plan (CCP is a requirement for nursing homes participating in the federal Medicare and Medicaid programs, referred to as skilled nursing facilities. The plan must be developed within the context of the comprehensive interdisciplinary assessment framework—the Resident Assessment Instrument (RAI. Consistent compliance with this requirement has been difficult to achieve. To improve the quality of CCP development within this framework, an increased understanding of complex factors contributing to inconsistent compliance is required. In this commentary, we examine the history of the comprehensive care plan; its development within the RAI framework; linkages between the RAI and registered nurse staffing; empirical evidence of the CCP’s efficacy; and the limitations of extant standards of practices in CCP development. Because of the registered nurse’s educational preparation, professional practice standards, and licensure obligations, the essential contributions of professional nurses in CCP development are emphasized. Recommendations for evidence-based micro and macro level practice changes with the potential to improve the quality of CCP development and regulatory compliance are presented. Suggestions for future research are given.

  10. Current activities and future trends in reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment in Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollo, E.; Toth, J.

    1986-01-01

    In Hungary reliability analysis (RA) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants was initiated 3 years ago. First, computer codes for automatic fault tree analysis (CAT, PREP) and numerical evaluation (REMO, KITT1,2) were adapted. Two main case studies - detailed availability/reliability calculation of diesel sets and analysis of safety systems influencing event sequences induced by large LOCA - were performed. Input failure data were taken from publications, a need for failure and reliability data bank was revealed. Current and future activities involves: setup of national data bank for WWER-440 units; full-scope level-I PSA of PAKS NPP in Hungary; operational safety assessment of particular problems at PAKS NPP. In the present article the state of RA and PSA activities in Hungary, as well as the main objectives of ongoing work are described. A need for international cooperation (for unified data collection of WWER-440 units) and for IAEA support (within Interregional Program INT/9/063) is emphasized. (author)

  11. THE ASSESSMENT OF ENTREPRENEURIAL PERSONALITY: THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Suárez-Álvarez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is fundamental in modern society because it represents an important source of innovation, employment, productivity, and growth. While the first theoretical models arose from economic and sociological approaches, psychology provides models that integrate different aspects such as cognitions, attitudes and personality, which allow a more detailed study. The purpose of this paper is to show the main contributions of psychology to the assessment of the enterprising personality. For this purpose, the main models and instruments developed to date were reviewed. The results confirm that the enterprising personality has a multidimensional structure and eight personality traits can be highlighted: achievement motivation, risk-taking, autonomy, self-efficacy, stress tolerance, innovativeness, internal locus of control, and optimism. From a methodological point of view, Item Response Theory and Computerised Adaptive Tests represent the most advanced and modern methods for assessing enterprising personality. There are currently several measurement instruments available. Future areas of research should be directed at the construction of multidimensional models as well as providing alternatives that facilitate a reduction in social desirability and other biases inherent in self-reports.

  12. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  13. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

    2018-05-01

    The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for

  14. 17 CFR 1.14 - Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... regarding sources of funding, together with a narrative discussion by management of the liquidity of the... to any futures commission merchant which holds funds or property of or for futures customers of less...

  15. Obstetrician-assessed maternal health at pregnancy predicts offspring future health.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debbie A Lawlor

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to examine the association between obstetrician assessment of maternal physical health at the time of pregnancy and offspring cardiovascular disease risk.We examined this association in a birth cohort of 11,106 individuals, with 245,000 person years of follow-up. We were concerned that any associations might be explained by residual confounding, particularly by family socioeconomic position. In order to explore this we used multivariable regression models in which we adjusted for a range of indicators of socioeconomic position and we explored the specificity of the association. Specificity of association was explored by examining associations with other health related outcomes. Maternal physical health was associated with cardiovascular disease: adjusted (socioeconomic position, complications of pregnancy, birthweight and childhood growth at mean age 5 hazard ratio comparing those described as having poor or very poor health at the time of pregnancy to those with good or very good health was 1.55 (95%CI: 1.05, 2.28 for coronary heart disease, 1.91 (95%CI: 0.99, 3.67 for stroke and 1.57 (95%CI: 1.13, 2.18 for either coronary heart disease or stroke. However, this association was not specific. There were strong associations for other outcomes that are known to be related to socioeconomic position (3.61 (95%CI: 1.04, 12.55 for lung cancer and 1.28 (95%CI:1.03, 1.58 for unintentional injury, but not for breast cancer (1.10 (95%CI:0.48, 2.53.These findings demonstrate that a simple assessment of physical health (based on the appearance of eyes, skin, hair and teeth of mothers at the time of pregnancy is a strong indicator of the future health risk of their offspring for common conditions that are associated with poor socioeconomic position and unhealthy behaviours. They do not support a specific biological link between maternal health across her life course and future risk of cardiovascular disease in her offspring.

  16. The quantification of environmental indicators for sustainability assessment of future electricity supply options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simons, A.; Bauer, Ch.; Heck, T.

    2011-02-01

    Within the project NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability) a range of criteria and indicators were defined according to the widely recognised 'three pillar' interpretation of sustainable development in order to assess future electricity generating technologies including their associated fuel cycles. The basic characteristics of the 26 technologies were defined as being appropriate in 2050 according to 'realistic/optimistic' development scenarios. The potential environmental impacts of each technology were assessed by initially determining the various criteria necessary to describe the range of significant impact areas. These criteria were then expressed and measured by one or more quantifiable indicators which were calculated using Life Cycle Inventories established earlier in the project. This report contributed to Research Stream RS2b of the project by quantifying and comparing the results of these indicators for each of the four countries used in the assessment: France, Germany, Switzerland and Italy. The environmental assessment showed that the nuclear technologies cause relatively very low impacts according to most of the indicators. The Generation IV, European Fast Reactor, has significant advantages over the European Pressurised Reactor but the availabilities of the two reactors will be quite different. Whereas the first examples of the EPR are already under construction, the design finalisation of the EFR is not yet complete meaning that the first plant is not expected to be constructed before 2040. An overarching and clear distinction between the fossil fueled technologies was less possible and the application of carbon capture and storage, whilst showing large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, was shown to be counteracted in a number of other indicators. The integration of solid fuel gasification prior to combustion also showed both benefits and disadvantages. For most indicators, the natural gas combined cycle options

  17. Systems Thinking for Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment: A Review of Recent Developments, Applications, and Future Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuri Cihat Onat

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Tracking the environmental impacts of production, use, and disposal of products (e.g., goods, and services have been an important issue in the global economy. Although Life Cycle Assessment (LCA is a widely applied method to track these environmental impacts and support policies, it has certain limitations and an isolated way of evaluating the environmental impacts with no consideration of social and economic impacts and mechanisms. To overcome the limits of current LCA, three mechanisms have been proposed in the literature: (1 broadening the indicators by including social and economic indicators in addition to the environmental impacts; (2 broadening the scope of analysis from product-level assessment to national and global levels; (3 deepening the assessment by inclusion of more mechanisms to account for interrelations among the system elements, uncertainty analysis, stakeholder involvement, etc. With these developments, LCA has been evolving into a new framework called Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA. Practical application of LCSA requires integration of various methods, tools, and disciplines. In this study, a comprehensive literature review is conducted to investigate recent developments, current challenges, and future perspectives in the LCSA literature. According to the review, a high number (40% of LCSA studies are from the environmental science discipline, while contributions from other disciplines such as economics (3% and social sciences (9% are very low. On broadening the scope of analysis, 58% of the studies are product-level works, while 37% quantified the impacts at national level and achieved an economy-wide analysis, and only 5% of the studies were able to quantify the global impacts of products using LCSA framework. Furthermore, current applications of LCSA have not considered the rebound effects, feedback mechanisms, and interrelations of the system of interest sufficiently. To address these challenges, we present a

  18. Adapt or Perish: Aeromedical Evacuation in the Contested Air Space of the Pacific Theater

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    British Citizenship .57 These examples aside, and in most cases, due to the realist nature of most states and the anarchistic way of the world, the...Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2003. Kubrick, Stanley. Full Metal Jacket. Warner Bros. 118 min., 1987. Digital Video Disk. Lowe

  19. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  20. Decisional tool to assess current and future process robustness in an antibody purification facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonier, Adam; Simaria, Ana Sofia; Smith, Martin; Farid, Suzanne S

    2012-07-01

    Increases in cell culture titers in existing facilities have prompted efforts to identify strategies that alleviate purification bottlenecks while controlling costs. This article describes the application of a database-driven dynamic simulation tool to identify optimal purification sizing strategies and visualize their robustness to future titer increases. The tool harnessed the benefits of MySQL to capture the process, business, and risk features of multiple purification options and better manage the large datasets required for uncertainty analysis and optimization. The database was linked to a discrete-event simulation engine so as to model the dynamic features of biopharmaceutical manufacture and impact of resource constraints. For a given titer, the tool performed brute force optimization so as to identify optimal purification sizing strategies that minimized the batch material cost while maintaining the schedule. The tool was applied to industrial case studies based on a platform monoclonal antibody purification process in a multisuite clinical scale manufacturing facility. The case studies assessed the robustness of optimal strategies to batch-to-batch titer variability and extended this to assess the long-term fit of the platform process as titers increase from 1 to 10 g/L, given a range of equipment sizes available to enable scale intensification efforts. Novel visualization plots consisting of multiple Pareto frontiers with tie-lines connecting the position of optimal configurations over a given titer range were constructed. These enabled rapid identification of robust purification configurations given titer fluctuations and the facility limit that the purification suites could handle in terms of the maximum titer and hence harvest load. Copyright © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE).

  1. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. A review and assessment of hydrodynamic cavitation as a technology for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gogate, Parag R; Pandit, Aniruddha B

    2005-01-01

    In the present work, the current status of the hydrodynamic cavitation reactors has been reviewed discussing the bubble dynamics analysis, optimum design considerations, design correlations for cavitational intensity (in terms of collapse pressure)/cavitational yield and different successful chemical synthesis applications clearly illustrating the utility of these types of reactors. The theoretical discussion based on the modeling of the bubble dynamics equations aims at understanding the design information related to the dependency of the cavitational intensity on the operating parameters and recommendations have been made for the choice of the optimized conditions of operating parameters. The design information based on the theoretical analysis has also been supported with some experimental illustrations concentrating on the chemical synthesis applications. Assessment of the hydrodynamic cavitation reactors and comparison with the sonochemical reactors has been done by citing the different industrially important reactions (oxidation of toluene, o-xylene, m-xylene, p-xylene, mesitylene, o-nitrotoluene, p-nitrotoluene, m-nitrotoluene, o-chlorotoluene and p-chlorotoulene, and trans-esterification reaction i.e., synthesis of bio-diesel). Some recommendations have also been made for the future work to be carried out as well as the choice of the operating conditions for realizing the dream of industrial scale applications of the cavitational reactors.

  3. An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Srevices in Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    2004-04-29

    This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

  4. An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Services in Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    2003-06-10

    This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

  5. Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity generation in the United States. Cumulative installed capacity was more than 74,000 megawatts (MW) at year-end 2015 and wind power supplied 4.7% of total 2015 U.S. electricity generation. Despite the growth of the wind power industry, the distributed wind market has remained limited. Cumulative installations of distributed wind through 2015 totaled 934 MW. This first-of-a-kind exploratory analysis characterizes the future opportunity for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities. This work focuses only on the grid-connected, behind-the-meter subset of the broader distributed wind market. We estimate this segment to be approximately half of the 934 MW of total installed distributed wind capacity at year-end 2015. Potential from other distributed wind market segments including systems installed in front of the meter (e.g., community wind) and in remote, off-grid locations is not assessed in this analysis and therefore, would be additive to results presented here. These other distributed wind market segments are not considered in this initial effort because of their relatively unique economic and market attributes.

  6. Assessing behavioural and cognitive domains of autism spectrum disorders in rodents: current status and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kas, Martien J; Glennon, Jeffrey C; Buitelaar, Jan; Ey, Elodie; Biemans, Barbara; Crawley, Jacqueline; Ring, Robert H; Lajonchere, Clara; Esclassan, Frederic; Talpos, John; Noldus, Lucas P J J; Burbach, J Peter H; Steckler, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    The establishment of robust and replicable behavioural testing paradigms with translational value for psychiatric diseases is a major step forward in developing and testing etiology-directed treatment for these complex disorders. Based on the existing literature, we have generated an inventory of applied rodent behavioural testing paradigms relevant to autism spectrum disorders (ASD). This inventory focused on previously used paradigms that assess behavioural domains that are affected in ASD, such as social interaction, social communication, repetitive behaviours and behavioural inflexibility, cognition as well as anxiety behaviour. A wide range of behavioural testing paradigms for rodents were identified. However, the level of face and construct validity is highly variable. The predictive validity of these paradigms is unknown, as etiology-directed treatments for ASD are currently not on the market. To optimise these studies, future efforts should address aspects of reproducibility and take into account data about the neurodevelopmental underpinnings and trajectory of ASD. In addition, with the increasing knowledge of processes underlying ASD, such as sensory information processes and synaptic plasticity, phenotyping efforts should include multi-level automated analysis of, for example, representative task-related behavioural and electrophysiological read-outs.

  7. Personal dose monitoring in hospitals: Global assessment, critical applications and future needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covens, P.; Berus, D.; Buls, N.; Clerinx, P.; Vanhavere, F.

    2007-01-01

    It is known that medical applications using ionising radiation are wide spread and still increasing. Physicians, technicians, nurses and others constitute the largest group of workers occupationally exposed to man-made sources of radiation. Many hospital workers are consequently subjected to routine monitoring of professional radiation exposures. in the university hospital, UZ Brussel, 600 out of 4000 staff members are daily monitored for external radiation exposures. The most obvious applications of ionising radiation are diagnostic radiology, diagnostic or therapeutic use of radionuclides in nuclear medicine and external radiation therapy or brachytherapy in radiotherapy departments. Other important applications also include various procedures in interventional radiology (IR), in vitro biomedical research and radiopharmaceutical production around cyclotrons. Besides the fact that many of the staff members, involved in these applications, are not measurably exposed, detailed studies were carried out at workplaces where routine dose monitoring encounters difficulties and for some applications where relatively high occupational exposures can be found. most of the studies are concentrated around nuclear medicine applications and IR. They contain assessments of both effective dose and doses at different parts of the body. The results contribute to better characterisation of the different workplaces in a way that critical applications can be identified. Moreover, conclusions point out future needs for practical routine dose monitoring and optimisation of radiation protection. (authors)

  8. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  9. Assessment of the Adaptation Strategiesin Rainfed Chickpea in Response to Future Climate Change in Zanjan Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Hajarpoor

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. is cultivated on alarge scale in arid and semiarid environments. Terminal drought and heat stress, among other abiotic and biotic stresses, are the major constraints of yield in most regions of chickpea production. The study of the effects of climate change could help to develop adaptation strategies to promote and stabilize crop yield. This research was aimed to assess adoption strategies in rainfed chickpea in response to Zanjan province’s climate change using a crop simulation model along with providing simulated yield maps using geographical information system (GIS. Materials and methods To study the effects of climate change and simulation the adaptation strategies, the model of Soltani and Sinclair (Soltani & Sinclair, 2011 was used. This model simulates phenological development, leaf development and senescence, mass partitioning, plant nitrogen balance, yield formation and soil water balance. For each location, a baseline period of daily weather data was available (Table 1. Investigated scenarios were historical climate (control and future climate scenarios that included both direct effects of doubling CO2 (350 to 700 ppm and its indirect effects (10% reduced rainfall, 4ºC increase in temperature. The crop model was performed for the different years of baseline period for current and future climate under typical management and cultivar and also under three adaptation strategies in the future climate including Management adaptation (M, Genetic adaptation (G and a combination of both Management and Genetic adaptation (M & G as described below (Table 2: Management – In various studies changing the planting dates as the simplest and least-cost adaptation strategy has been emphasized (Luo et al., 2009; hence a shift in planting dates i.e. sowing 15 days in advance was explored in this study to reduce the risk of the late season drought. Genetics – Changes in genotype have been suggested to be

  10. Assessments of Future Maize Yield Potential Changes in the Korean Peninsula Using Multiple Crop Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, J.; Lee, W. K.; Kafatos, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Peninsula has unique agricultural environment due to the differences of political and socio-economical system between Republic of Korea (SK, hereafter) and Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (NK, hereafter). NK has been suffering lack of food supplies caused by natural disasters, land degradation and political failure. The neighboring developed country SK has better agricultural system but very low food self-sufficiency rate. Maize is an important crop in both countries since it is staple food for NK and SK is No. 2 maize importing country in the world after Japan. Therefore, evaluating maize yield potential (Yp) in the two distinct regions is essential to assess food security under climate change and variability. In this study, we utilized multiple process-based crop models, having ability of regional scale assessment, to evaluate maize Yp and assess the model uncertainties -EPIC, GEPIC, DSSAT, and APSIM model that has capability of regional scale expansion (apsimRegions). First we evaluated each crop model for 3 years from 2012 to 2014 using reanalysis data (RDAPS; Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System produced by Korea Meteorological Agency) and observed yield data. Each model performances were compared over the different regions in the Korean Peninsula having different local climate characteristics. To quantify of the major influence of at each climate variables, we also conducted sensitivity test using 20 years of climatology in historical period from 1981 to 2000. Lastly, the multi-crop model ensemble analysis was performed for future period from 2031 to 2050. The required weather variables projected for mid-century were employed from COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) East Asia. The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas

  11. Beyond the Dirty Dozen: A Proposed Methodology for Assessing Future Bioweapon Threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieslak, Theodore J; Kortepeter, Mark G; Wojtyk, Ronald J; Jansen, Hugo-Jan; Reyes, Ricardo A; Smith, James O

    2018-01-01

    Defense policy planners and countermeasure developers are often faced with vexing problems involving the prioritization of resources and efforts. This is especially true in the area of Biodefense, where each new emerging infectious disease outbreak brings with it questions regarding the causative agent's potential for weaponization. Recent experience with West Nile Virus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Monkeypox, and H1N1 Influenza highlights this problem. Appropriately, in each of these cases, the possibility of bioterrorism was raised, although each outbreak ultimately proved to have a natural origin. In fact, determining whether an outbreak has an unnatural origin can be quite difficult. Thus, the questions remain: could the causative agents of these and other emerging infectious disease outbreaks pose a future weaponization threat? And how great is that threat? Should precious resources be diverted from other defense efforts in order to prepare for possible hostile employment of novel diseases by belligerents? Answering such critical questions requires some form of systematic threat assessment. Through extensive collaborative work conducted within NATO's Biomedical Advisory Council, we developed a scoring matrix for evaluating the weaponization potential of the causative agents of such diseases and attempted to validate our matrix by examining the reproducibility of data using known threat agents. Our matrix included 12 attributes of a potential weapon and was provided, along with detailed scoring instructions, to 12 groups of biodefense experts in 6 NATO nations. Study participants were asked to score each of these 12 attributes on a scale of 0-3: Infectivity, Infection-to-Disease Ratio (Reliability), Predictability (& Incubation Period), Morbidity & Mortality (Virulence), Ease of Large-Scale Production & Storage, Aerosol Stability, Atmospheric Stability, Ease of Dispersal, Communicability, Prophylactic Countermeasure Availability, Therapeutic

  12. On the future of civilian plutonium: An assessment of technological impediments to nuclear terrorism and proliferation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avedon, Roger Edmond

    This dissertation addresses the value of developing diversion- and theft-resistant nuclear power technology, given uncertain future demand for nuclear power, and uncertain risks of nuclear terrorism and of proliferation from the reprocessing of civilian plutonium. The methodology comprises four elements: Economics. An economic growth model coupled with market penetration effects for plutonium and for the hypothetical new technology provides a range of estimates for future nuclear demand. A flow model accounts for the longevity of capital assets (nuclear plants) over time. Terrorism. The commercial nuclear fuel cycle may provide a source of fissile material for terrorists seeking to construct a crude nuclear device. An option value model is used to estimate the effects of the hypothetical new technology on reducing the probability of theft. A game theoretic model is used to explore the deterrence value of physical security and then to draw conclusions about how learning on the part of terrorists or security forces might affect the theft estimate. The principal uncertainties in the theft model can be updated using Bayesian techniques as new data emerge. Proliferation. Access to fissile material is the principal technical impediment to a state's acquisition of nuclear weapons. A game theoretic model is used to determine the circumstances under which a state may proliferate via diversion. The model shows that the hypothetical new technology will have little value for counter-proliferation if diversion is not a preferred proliferation method. A technology policy analysis of the choice of proliferation method establishes that diversion is unlikely to be used because it has no constituency among the important parties to the decision, namely the political leadership, the scientific establishment, and the military. Value. The decision whether to develop a diversion- and theft-resistant fuel cycle depends on the perceived value of avoiding nuclear terrorism and proliferation

  13. The Future of Self-Assessment in Classroom Practice: Reframing Self-Assessment as a Core Competency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gavin T. L.; Harris, Lois R.

    2014-01-01

    Formative assessment policies and self-regulation theories argue that student self-assessment of their own work and processes are useful for raising academic performance and self-regulatory skills. However, research into student self-evaluation raises serious doubts about the quality of self-assessment as an assessment process and identifies…

  14. The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

    2015-04-01

    There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation

  15. Assessing the Threat of Amphibian Chytrid Fungus in the Albertine Rift: Past, Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seimon, Tracie A.; Ayebare, Samuel; Sekisambu, Robert; Muhindo, Emmanuel; Mitamba, Guillain; Greenbaum, Eli; Menegon, Michele; Pupin, Fabio; McAloose, Denise; Ammazzalorso, Alyssa; Meirte, Danny; Lukwago, Wilbur; Behangana, Mathias; Seimon, Anton; Plumptre, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the cause of chytridiomycosis, is a pathogenic fungus that is found worldwide and is a major contributor to amphibian declines and extinctions. We report results of a comprehensive effort to assess the distribution and threat of Bd in one of the Earth’s most important biodiversity hotspots, the Albertine Rift in central Africa. In herpetological surveys conducted between 2010 and 2014, 1018 skin swabs from 17 amphibian genera in 39 sites across the Albertine Rift were tested for Bd by PCR. Overall, 19.5% of amphibians tested positive from all sites combined. Skin tissue samples from 163 amphibians were examined histologically; of these two had superficial epidermal intracorneal fungal colonization and lesions consistent with the disease chytridiomycosis. One amphibian was found dead during the surveys, and all others encountered appeared healthy. We found no evidence for Bd-induced mortality events, a finding consistent with other studies. To gain a historical perspective about Bd in the Albertine Rift, skin swabs from 232 museum-archived amphibians collected as voucher specimens from 1925–1994 were tested for Bd. Of these, one sample was positive; an Itombwe River frog (Phrynobatrachus asper) collected in 1950 in the Itombwe highlands. This finding represents the earliest record of Bd in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We modeled the distribution of Bd in the Albertine Rift using MaxEnt software, and trained our model for improved predictability. Our model predicts that Bd is currently widespread across the Albertine Rift, with moderate habitat suitability extending into the lowlands. Under climatic modeling scenarios our model predicts that optimal habitat suitability of Bd will decrease causing a major range contraction of the fungus by 2080. Our baseline data and modeling predictions are important for comparative studies, especially if significant changes in amphibian health status or climactic conditions are

  16. Radiation binary targeted therapy for HER-2 positive breast cancers: assumptions, theoretical assessment and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mundy, Daniel W [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, 400 Central Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47909 (United States); Harb, Wael [Horizon Oncology, The Care Group, Unity Medical Center, Lafayette, IN 47901 (United States); Jevremovic, Tatjana [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, 400 Central Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47909 (United States)

    2006-03-21

    neutron irradiation treatment facilities are examined for this application. The tumour boron concentrations and tumour to healthy tissue concentration ratios required to deliver 50 Gy-Eq to the tumour without exceeding 18 Gy-Eq in the skin are determined, as well as the associated therapeutic ratios. Discussion is provided to address the future research direction for assessing the feasibility of the proposed concept.

  17. Critical thinking: assessing the risks to the future security of supply of critical metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Gus

    2015-04-01

    Increasing world population, the spread of prosperity across the globe and the demands of new technologies have led to a revival of concerns about the availability of raw materials needed by society. Despite scare stories about resource depletion, physical exhaustion of minerals is considered to be unlikely. However, we do need to know which materials might be of concern so that we can develop strategies to secure adequate supplies and to mitigate the effects of supply disruption. This requirement has led to renewed interest in criticality, a term that is generally used to refer to metals and minerals of high economic importance that have a relatively high likelihood of supply disruption. The European Union (EU) developed a quantitative methodology for the assessment of criticality which led to the definition of 14 raw materials as critical to the EU economy (EC, 2010). This has succeeded in raising awareness of potential supply issues and in helping to prioritise requirements for new policies and supporting research. The EU has recently assessed a larger number of candidate materials of which 20 are now identified as critical to the EU (EC, 2014). These include metals such as indium, mostly used in flat-screen displays, antimony for flame retardants and cobalt for rechargeable batteries, alloys and a host of other products. Although there is no consensus on the methodology for criticality assessments and broad analyses at this scale are inevitably imperfect, they can, nevertheless, provide early warning of supply problems. However, in order to develop more rigorous and dynamic assessments of future availability detailed analysis of the whole life-cycle of individual metals to identify specific problems and develop appropriate solutions is required. New policies, such as the Raw Materials Initiative (2008) and the European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (2013), have been developed by the European Commission (EC) and are aimed at securing sustainable

  18. How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    2015-01-01

    When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered. In this......When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered....... In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts...... climate, soil, water loss and production parameters. Secondly, the handling of these factors in the inventory modeling is discussed and finally implemented in the case study. Our approach follows a 3-step procedure consisting of: (1) definition of a baseline scenario at the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI...

  19. Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

  20. Epidemiology and location of primary retrieval missions in a Scottish aeromedical service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neagle, Gregg; Curatolo, Lisa; Ferris, John; Donald, Mike; Hearns, Stephen; Corfield, Alasdair R

    2017-07-25

    Prehospital critical care teams comprising an appropriately trained physician and paramedic or nurse have been associated with improved outcomes in selected trauma patients. These teams are a scarce and expensive resource, especially when delivered by rotary air assets. The optimal tasking of prehospital critical care teams is therefore vital and remains a subject of debate. Emergency Medical Retrieval Service (EMRS) provides a prehospital critical care response team to incidents over a large area of Scotland either by air or by road. A convenience sample of consecutive EMRS missions covering a period of 18 months from May 2013 to January 2015 was taken. These missions were matched with the ambulance service information on geographical location of the incident. In order to assess the appropriateness of tasking, interventions undertaken on each mission were analysed and divided into two subcategories: 'critical care interventions' and 'advanced medical interventions'. A tasking was deemed appropriate if it included either category of intervention or if a patient was pronounced life extinct at the scene. A total of 1279 primary missions were undertaken during the study period. Of these, 493 primary missions met the inclusion criteria and generated complete location data. The median distance to scene was calculated as 5.6 miles for land responses and 34.2 miles for air responses. Overall, critical care interventions were performed on 17% (84/493) of patients. A further 21% (102/493) of patients had an advanced medical intervention. Including those patients for whom life was pronounced extinct on scene by the EMRS team, a total of 42% (206/493) taskings were appropriate. Overall, our data show a wide geographical spread of tasking for our service, which is in keeping with other suburban/rural models of prehospital care. Tasking accuracy is also comparable to the accuracy shown by other similar services.

  1. Assessing the Effects of a Work-Based Antipoverty Program for Parents on Youth's Future Orientation and Employment Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLoyd, Vonnie C.; Kaplan, Rachel; Purtell, Kelly M.; Huston, Aletha C.

    2011-01-01

    The impacts of New Hope, a 3-year work-based antipoverty program to increase parent employment and reduce poverty, on youth ages 9-19 (N = 866) were assessed 5 years after parents left the program. New Hope had positive effects on the future orientation and employment experiences of boys, especially African American boys. Compared to boys in…

  2. Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

    2010-01-01

    County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

  3. Modelling cereal crops to assess future climate risk for family food self-sufficiency in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Traore, Bouba; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Wijk, van Mark T.; Corbeels, Marc; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E.

    2017-01-01

    Future climate change will have far reaching consequences for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, the majority of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Here we assessed the farm-level impact of climate change on family food self-sufficiency and evaluated potential adaptation

  4. Contents of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in the safety evaluation of a repository for spent fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A.

    2001-08-01

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent nor the regulator

  5. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M.; Fink-Gremmels, J.

    2013-01-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment

  6. Judging the Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome Assessment Tools to Guide Future Tool Development: The use of Clinimetrics as Opposed to Psychometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Philip M; Gomez-Pomar, Enrique

    2017-01-01

    In the face of the current Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome (NAS) epidemic, there is considerable variability in the assessment and management of infants with NAS. In this manuscript, we particularly focus on NAS assessment, with special attention given to the popular Finnegan Neonatal Abstinence Score (FNAS). A major instigator of the problem of variable practices is that multiple modified versions of the FNAS exist and continue to be proposed, including shortened versions. Furthermore, the validity of such assessment tools has been questioned, and as a result, the need for better tools has been suggested. The ultimate purpose of this manuscript, therefore, is to increase researchers' and clinicians' understanding on how to judge the usefulness of NAS assessment tools in order to guide future tool development and to reduce variable practices. In short, we suggest that judgment of NAS assessment tools should be made on a clinimetrics viewpoint as opposed to psychometrically. We provide examples, address multiple issues that must be considered, and discuss future tool development. Furthermore, we urge researchers and clinicians to come together, utilizing their knowledge and experience, to assess the utility and practicality of existing assessment tools and to determine if one or more new or modified tools are needed with the goal of increased agreement on the assessment of NAS in practice.

  7. Judging the Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome Assessment Tools to Guide Future Tool Development: The use of Clinimetrics as Opposed to Psychometrics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip M. Westgate

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In the face of the current Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome (NAS epidemic, there is considerable variability in the assessment and management of infants with NAS. In this manuscript, we particularly focus on NAS assessment, with special attention given to the popular Finnegan Neonatal Abstinence Score (FNAS. A major instigator of the problem of variable practices is that multiple modified versions of the FNAS exist and continue to be proposed, including shortened versions. Furthermore, the validity of such assessment tools has been questioned, and as a result, the need for better tools has been suggested. The ultimate purpose of this manuscript, therefore, is to increase researchers’ and clinicians’ understanding on how to judge the usefulness of NAS assessment tools in order to guide future tool development and to reduce variable practices. In short, we suggest that judgment of NAS assessment tools should be made on a clinimetrics viewpoint as opposed to psychometrically. We provide examples, address multiple issues that must be considered, and discuss future tool development. Furthermore, we urge researchers and clinicians to come together, utilizing their knowledge and experience, to assess the utility and practicality of existing assessment tools and to determine if one or more new or modified tools are needed with the goal of increased agreement on the assessment of NAS in practice.

  8. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu [Emerging Risk Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma (Italy); Fink-Gremmels, J. [Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Yalelaan 104, 3584 CM Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

  9. Neurological assessment of the fitness of young people for learning their future profession

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Polakowska, B

    1981-01-01

    2195 pupils finishing the Grammar School were examined neurologically in view of their future professions. Contraindications were determined related to the type of the future work. The contraindications were found in 34.7% of the young people. Many of them were disqualified from professional training in exposure to neurotoxic substances and physical hazards. The limitations related to future work were referred to those exhibiting symptoms of organic nervous system diseases, considerably intensified nervous irritability, headache and those in whom certain of those symptoms coexisted.

  10. Predicting Future Training Opportunities Using the Land-Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Westervelt, James D; Nemeth, Sarah B; White, Michael J; Kemme, Michael R; Morrison, Dawn A; Eastgate, Christa; Ginsberg, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The future training/testing capacities of military installations and their surrounding regions are increasingly based on today's smart regional planning in collaboration with surrounding cities, counties, and states...

  11. A Future-Based Risk Assessment for the Survivability of Long Range Strike Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-03-01

    Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) investigated alternative futures to help generate a viable science strategy to address the future aerospace...World American World View ΔTeK World Power Grid Name 1 Global Exponential Dispersed DIGITAL CACOPHONY 2 Global Exponential Concentrated STAR TREK ...The United States has become the “United Kingdom of the Twenty-first Century.” 2.2.3. NASA Study (1997) In the NASA study, the National Research

  12. Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transporation systems. Volume 2: Identification of issues affecting intercity transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    Papers on major issues and trends that affect the future of intercity transportation are presented. Specific areas covered include: political, social, technological, institutional, and economic mechanisms, the workings of which determine how future intercity transporation technologies will evolve and be put into service; the major issues of intercity transportation from the point of view of reform, including candidate transporation technologies; and technical analysis of trends affecting the evolution of intercity transportation technologies.

  13. Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhito Mori

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones generate severe hazards in the middle latitudes. A brief review and applications of dynamical and statistical downscaling of tropical cyclone (TC are described targeting extreme storm surge and storm wave hazard assessment. First, a review of the current understanding of the changes in the characteristics of TCs in the past and in the future is shown. Then, a review and ongoing research about impact assessment of tropical cyclones both dynamical downscaling and statistical model are described for Typhoon Vera in 1959 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Finally, several examples of impact assessment of storm surge and extreme wave changes are presented. Changes in both TC intensity and track are linked to future changes in extreme storm surge and wave climate in middle latitude.

  14. Associations of Affective Responses During Free-Living Physical Activity and Future Physical Activity Levels: an Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Yue; Chou, Chih-Ping; Huh, Jimi; Leventhal, Adam; Dunton, Genevieve

    2017-08-01

    Affective response during physical activity may influence motivation to perform future physical activity behavior. However, affective response during physical activity is often assessed under controlled laboratory conditions. The current study used ecological momentary assessment (EMA) to capture affective responses during free-living physical activity performed by adults, and determined whether these affective responses predict future moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) levels after 6 and 12 months. At baseline, electronic EMA surveys were randomly prompted across 4 days asking about current activities and affective states (e.g., happy, stressed, energetic, tired). Affective response during physical activity was operationalized as the level of positive or negative affect reported when concurrent physical activity (e.g., exercise or sports) was also reported. Data were available for 82 adults. Future levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were measured using accelerometers, worn for seven consecutive days at 6 and 12 months after the baseline assessment. Feeling more energetic during physical activity was associated with performing more minutes of daily MVPA after both 6 and 12 months. Feeling less negative affect during physical activity was associated with engaging in more daily MVPA minutes after 12 months only. This study demonstrated how EMA can be used to capture affective responses during free-living physical activity. Results found that feelings more energetic and less negative during physical activity were associated with more future physical activity, suggesting that positive emotional benefits may reinforce behavior.

  15. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Troejbom, Mats; Grolander, Sara

    2010-12-01

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  16. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Grolander, Sara (Facilia AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  17. A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, William J.; Alves, José A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

    2012-01-01

    We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

  18. The current CEA/DRN safety approach for the design and the assessment of future nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiorini, G.L.; Pinto, P.L.; Costa, M.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of the document is to present the basis of the safety approach currently implemented by the CEA/DRN, both for the design and the assessment of innovative systems and future nuclear installations. This approach is the result of the experience maturated, within the context of the CEA/DRN Innovative Programme through practical applications over several future concepts, both for fission and fusion reactors, as well as for waste disposal. The background of this experience is structured coherently with the European Safety Authorities recommendations and the European Utilities Requirements (EUR). The Defence In Depth principle and its application, by means, among others, of the barrier concept, remains the basis of the safety design process of future nuclear installations. Its adequacy is checked through the safety assessment. The methodology for Lines Of Defence (LOD) implementation as well as the one for the LOD architecture assessment is shown and motivated. The document shows that the clear and unambiguous definition of the safety approach provides an essential base for the organisation of the design tasks, being sure that the safety aspects are correctly taken into account and implemented, and for an adequate safety assessment of the final design, both from qualitative point of view as well as for the quantitative safety analysis. (author)

  19. Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

    2018-01-01

    Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

  20. French Health Technology Assessment of Antineoplastic Drugs Indicated in the Treatment of Solid Tumours: Perspective for Future Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouaid, Christos; Borget, Isabelle; Braun, Eric; Bazil, Marie-Laure; Schaetz, Dominique; Rémuzat, Cécile; Toumi, Mondher

    2016-08-01

    France is one of the European countries that spend the most on oncology drugs. To keep pharmaceutical expenditure under control, Health Authorities highly scrutinize market access of costly medicines. To assess current and future trends in French health technology assessment (HTA) of antineoplastic drugs indicated in the treatment of solid tumours. A review of the SMR and ASMR drivers of the Transparency Committee (CT) opinions issued for antineoplastic drugs indicated in the treatment of solid tumours and approved between 2009 and 2014 was performed to assess current trends in French health technology assessment (HTA), complemented by an expert board consultation to capture the critical issues on the future of antineoplastic drugs HTA. Thirty-one drugs indicated for the treatment of solid tumours were identified (77 % targeted therapies). Initial CT assessments were available for 26 drugs. Four key items in the CT assessment were identified: 1) Clinical trial methodology; 2) Acceptance of progression-free survival (PFS) as a valuable endpoint; 3) Transferability of clinical trials in clinical practice; 4) Unpredictability of CT decisions. Experts raised the important development of personalised medicines in oncology and key challenges for oncology products to generate information expected from HTA perspective. The French system remains committed to its values and philosophy (access of all innovations for everybody) which are threatened by the increasing launch of innovative therapies and budget constraint. Both HTA decision framework evolution and revision of the current pricing process should be considered in France to cope with these new challenges.

  1. Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

    2015-01-01

    The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding and includ......The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding...

  2. Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floortje; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

    2014-01-01

    Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergydepend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirectland use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1)projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and theeffect on other land uses in

  3. City Blueprints: Baseline Assessments of Sustainable Water Management in 11 Cities of the Future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, C.J.

    2013-01-01

    The necessity of Urban Water Cycle Services (UWCS) adapting to future stresses calls for changes that take sustainability into account. Megatrends (e.g. population growth, water scarcity, pollution and climate change) pose urgent water challenges in cities. In a previous paper, a set of indicators,

  4. An Assessment of Future Employment Opportunities for Individuals Trained in the Automotive Trades. Working Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    California State Dept. of Employment Development, Sacramento.

    The California Youth Authority (CYA) planned to offer a training program covering all aspects of the automotive trades to wards during their incarceration. Through analysis, it showed future job opportunities exist, due to increased job numbers and high turnover rate, for persons trained in the automotive trades in California over a 10-year period…

  5. LTE delay assessment for real-time management of future smart grids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jorguseski, L.; Zhang, H.; Chrysalos, M.; Golinski, M.; Toh, Y.

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the feasibility of using Long Term Evolution (LTE), for the real-time state estimation of the smart grids. This enables monitoring and control of future smart grids. The smart grid state estimation requires measurement reports from different nodes in the smart grid and

  6. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

  7. Towards the next generation of climate change assessment: learning from past experiences to inform a sustainable future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, K. J.; Field, C. B.

    2017-12-01

    Over decades, assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and many others has bolstered understanding of the climate problem: unequivocal warming, pervasive impacts, and serious risks from continued high emissions of heat-trapping gases. Societies are increasingly responding with early actions to decarbonize energy systems and prepare for impacts. This emerging era of climate solutions creates a need for new approaches to assessment that emphasize learning from ongoing real-world experiences and that help close the gap between aspirations and the pace of progress. Against this backdrop, the presentation will take stock of recent advances and challenges in assessment, especially drawing from analysis of climate change assessment. Four assessment priorities will be considered: (1) integrating diverse evidence including quantitative and qualitative results, (2) applying rigorous expert judgment in evaluating knowledge and uncertainties, (3) exploring widely ranging futures and their connections to ongoing choices and actions, and (4) incorporating interactions among experts and decision-makers in assessment processes. Across these assessment priorities, the presentation will critique both opportunities and pitfalls, outlining possibilities for future experimentation, innovation, and learning. It will evaluate, in particular, lessons from risk-based approaches; strategies for transparently acknowledging persistent uncertainties and contested priorities; ways to minimize biases and foster creativity in expert judgments; scenario-based assessment of surprises, deep uncertainties, and decision-making implications; and opportunities for broadening the conception of expertise and engaging different decision-makers and stakeholders. Overall, these approaches can advance assessment products and processes as a basis for sustained dialogue supporting decision-making.

  8. Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    Emanuel, Kerry

    2017-01-01

    Significance Natural disasters such as the recent Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria highlight the need for quantitative estimates of the risk of such disasters. Statistically based risk assessment suffers from short records of often poor quality, and in the case of meteorological hazards, from the fact that the underlying climate is changing. This study shows how a recently developed physics-based risk assessment method can be applied to assessing the probabilities of extreme hurricane rainf...

  9. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  10. Environmental impacts of future low-carbon electricity systems: Detailed life cycle assessment of a Danish case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turconi, Roberto; Tonini, Davide; Nielsen, Christian F.B.

    2014-01-01

    by the modeling approach regarding the import of electricity, biomass provision, and the allocation between heat and power in cogeneration plants. As the importance of all three aspects is likely to increase in the future, transparency in LCA modeling is critical. Characterized impacts for Danish power plants......The need to reduce dependency on fossil resources and to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is driving many countries towards the implementation of low-carbon electricity systems. In this study the environmental impact of a future (2030) possible low-carbon electricity system in Denmark...... was assessed and compared with the current situation (2010) and an alternative 2030 scenario using life cycle assessment (LCA). The influence on the final results of the modeling approach used for (i) electricity import, (ii) biomass resources, and (iii) the cogeneration of heat and power was discussed...

  11. A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a novel decision-support tool for assessing future generation portfolios in an increasingly uncertain electricity industry. The tool combines optimal generation mix concepts with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis techniques to determine expected overall industry costs, associated cost uncertainty, and expected CO 2 emissions for different generation portfolio mixes. The tool can incorporate complex and correlated probability distributions for estimated future fossil-fuel costs, carbon prices, plant investment costs, and demand, including price elasticity impacts. The intent of this tool is to facilitate risk-weighted generation investment and associated policy decision-making given uncertainties facing the electricity industry. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with coal, CCGT, and OCGT facing future uncertainties. Results highlight some significant generation investment challenges, including the impacts of uncertain and correlated carbon and fossil-fuel prices, the role of future demand changes in response to electricity prices, and the impact of construction cost uncertainties on capital intensive generation. The tool can incorporate virtually any type of input probability distribution, and support sophisticated risk assessments of different portfolios, including downside economic risks. It can also assess portfolios against multi-criterion objectives such as greenhouse emissions as well as overall industry costs. - Highlights: ► Present a decision support tool to assist generation investment and policy making under uncertainty. ► Generation portfolios are assessed based on their expected costs, risks, and CO 2 emissions. ► There is tradeoff among expected cost, risks, and CO 2 emissions of generation portfolios. ► Investment challenges include economic impact of uncertainties and the effect of price elasticity. ► CO 2 emissions reduction depends on the mix of

  12. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification......This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

  13. Colorado School Finance Partnership: Report and Recommendations. Financing Colorado's Future: Assessing Our School Finance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colorado Children's Campaign, 2012

    2012-01-01

    Over the last decade, Colorado has emerged as a national leader in crafting innovative solutions for challenges facing its public school system. From implementing the Colorado Student Assessment Program (CSAP) and No Child Left Behind (NCLB) reforms to more recent legislation including standards and assessments for a preschool-through-college…

  14. Framework for e-learning assessment in dental education: a global model for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arevalo, Carolina R; Bayne, Stephen C; Beeley, Josie A; Brayshaw, Christine J; Cox, Margaret J; Donaldson, Nora H; Elson, Bruce S; Grayden, Sharon K; Hatzipanagos, Stylianos; Johnson, Lynn A; Reynolds, Patricia A; Schönwetter, Dieter J

    2013-05-01

    The framework presented in this article demonstrates strategies for a global approach to e-curricula in dental education by considering a collection of outcome assessment tools. By combining the outcomes for overall assessment, a global model for a pilot project that applies e-assessment tools to virtual learning environments (VLE), including haptics, is presented. Assessment strategies from two projects, HapTEL (Haptics in Technology Enhanced Learning) and UDENTE (Universal Dental E-learning), act as case-user studies that have helped develop the proposed global framework. They incorporate additional assessment tools and include evaluations from questionnaires and stakeholders' focus groups. These measure each of the factors affecting the classical teaching/learning theory framework as defined by Entwistle in a standardized manner. A mathematical combinatorial approach is proposed to join these results together as a global assessment. With the use of haptic-based simulation learning, exercises for tooth preparation assessing enamel and dentine were compared to plastic teeth in manikins. Equivalence for student performance for haptic versus traditional preparation methods was established, thus establishing the validity of the haptic solution for performing these exercises. Further data collected from HapTEL are still being analyzed, and pilots are being conducted to validate the proposed test measures. Initial results have been encouraging, but clearly the need persists to develop additional e-assessment methods for new learning domains.

  15. EASETECH Energy: Life Cycle Assessment of current and future Danish power systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turconi, Roberto; Damgaard, Anders; Bisinella, Valentina

    A new life cycle assessment (LCA) model software has been developed by DTU Environment, to facilitate detailed LCA of energy technologies. The model, EASETECH Energy, is dedicated to the specific technologies needed to assess energy production and energy systems and provides an unprecedented...

  16. Development, Evaluation, and Future Directions of the Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornell, Dewey; Allen, Korrie

    2011-01-01

    The Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines were developed in response to studies of school shootings conducted by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Secret Service, and U.S. Department of Education that recommended schools should adopt a threat assessment approach to prevent targeted violence. This article reviews the…

  17. Data Center IT Equipment Energy Assessment Tools: Current State of Commercial Tools, Proposal for a Future Set of Assessment Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radhakrishnan, Ben D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); National Univ., San Diego, CA (United States). School of Engineering

    2012-06-30

    This research project, which was conducted during the Summer and Fall of 2011, investigated some commercially available assessment tools with a focus on IT equipment to see if such tools could round out the DC Pro tool suite. In this research, the assessment capabilities of the various tools were compiled to help make “non-biased” information available to the public. This research should not be considered to be exhaustive on all existing vendor tools although a number of vendors were contacted. Large IT equipment OEM’s like IBM and Dell provide their proprietary internal automated software which does not work on any other IT equipment. However, found two companies with products that showed promise in performing automated assessments for IT equipment from different OEM vendors. This report documents the research and provides a list of software products reviewed, contacts and websites, product details, discussions with specific companies, a set of recommendations, and next steps. As a result of this research, a simple 3-level approach to an IT assessment tool is proposed along with an example of an assessment using a simple IT equipment data collection tool (Level 1, spreadsheet). The tool has been reviewed with the Green Grid and LBNL staff. The initial feedback has been positive although further refinement to the tool will be necessary. Proposed next steps include a field trial of at least two vendors’ software in two different data centers with an objective to prove the concept, ascertain the extent of energy and computational assessment, ease of installation and opportunities for continuous improvement. Based on the discussions, field trials (or case studies) are proposed with two vendors – JouleX (expected to be completed in 2012) and Sentilla.

  18. Considering "Nonlinearity" Across the Continuum in Medical Education Assessment: Supporting Theory, Practice, and Future Research Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durning, Steven J; Lubarsky, Stuart; Torre, Dario; Dory, Valérie; Holmboe, Eric

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to propose new approaches to assessment that are grounded in educational theory and the concept of "nonlinearity." The new approaches take into account related phenomena such as "uncertainty," "ambiguity," and "chaos." To illustrate these approaches, we will use the example of assessment of clinical reasoning, although the principles we outline may apply equally well to assessment of other constructs in medical education. Theoretical perspectives include a discussion of script theory, assimilation theory, self-regulated learning theory, and situated cognition. Assessment examples to include script concordance testing, concept maps, self-regulated learning microanalytic technique, and work-based assessment, which parallel the above-stated theories, respectively, are also highlighted. We conclude with some practical suggestions for approaching nonlinearity. © 2015 The Alliance for Continuing Education in the Health Professions, the Society for Academic Continuing Medical Education, and the Council on Continuing Medical Education, Association for Hospital Medical Education.

  19. The New Russian Budget System; A Critical Assessment and Future Reform Agenda

    OpenAIRE

    Jack Diamond

    2002-01-01

    This paper documents the main elements of the new budget system established in the Russian Federation through its revised budget system law, or the Budget Code, of 2000. It critically examines the budget preparation, budget approval, and budget execution processes, as well as the financial management and planning procedures that underlie the Budget Code. Based on this analysis, recent developments are discussed and a future reform agenda is indicated.

  20. Technology Assessment for Future MILSATCOM Systems; An Update of the EHF Bands

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-10-01

    converging these efforts, the MSO has prepared a "Technology Development Program Plan" ( TDPP ). The TOPP defines a coordinated approach to the R&D...required to insure the availability of the technology necessary to support future systems. Some of the objectives of the TDPP are: to minimize...and TDPP have illuminated the need for technology development efforts directed toward minimizing the cost- risk and schedule-risk, and insuring the

  1. Future trends in the assessment of hazards from fission product releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beattie, J. R.

    1983-11-15

    In comparing and selecting sites for reactors from the point of view of safety, one considers the remote possibility of an accidental release of moderately large amounts of fission products and its effects in relation to the present and future distribution of population in the neighbourhood. At present, until experience is gained of the reliability and safety of reactors, there is a tendency to site them remotely from centres of industry and population, although for economic reasons there will be a need to site large power reactors more closely to such centres in the future. With, among other objectives, the aim of adopting, in the proper course or time, less restrictive siting criteria, improvements are continually made in the intrinsic safety of reactor system and more sophisticated forms of reactor containment are devised, in order to reduce the possibility and scale of any fission product release. Changes and improvements in reactor systems could affect the nature and proportion of an accidental release of fission products if this should occur in the future. It is appropriate to consider what such a release and its radiobiological effects might be.

  2. The Subjective Health Horizon Questionnaire (SHH-Q): Assessing Future Time Perspectives for Facets of an Active Lifestyle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Düzel, Sandra; Voelkle, Manuel C; Düzel, Emrah; Gerstorf, Denis; Drewelies, Johanna; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Demuth, Ilja; Lindenberger, Ulman

    2016-01-01

    A wider subjective time horizon is assumed to be positively associated with longevity and vitality. In particular, a lifestyle with exposure to novel and varied information is considered beneficial for healthy cognitive aging. At present, measures that specifically assess individuals' perceived temporal extension to engage in active lifestyles in the future are not available. We introduce and validate a new self-report measure, the Subjective Health Horizon Questionnaire (SHH-Q). The SHH-Q assesses individuals' future time perspectives in relation to four interrelated but distinct lifestyle dimensions: (1) novelty-oriented exploration (Novelty), (2) bodily fitness (Body), (3) work goals (Work), and (4) goals in life (Life Goals). The present study aims at: (a) validating the hypothesized factor structure of the SHH-Q, according to which the SHH-Q consists of four interrelated but distinct subscales, and (b) testing the hypothesis that the Novelty and Body subscales of the SHH-Q show positive and selective associations with markers of cognition and somatic health, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we analyzed data from 1,371 healthy individuals (51% women) with a mean age of 70.1 years (SD = 3.6) who participated in the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II) and completed the SHH-Q. As predicted, the SHH-Q formed four correlated but distinct subscales: (1) Novelty, (2) Body, (3) Work, and (4) Life Goals. Greater self-reported future novelty orientation was associated with higher current memory performance, and greater future expectations regarding bodily fitness with better current metabolic status. The SHH-Q reliably assesses individual differences in four distinct dimensions of future time perspective. Two of these dimensions, Novelty and Body, show differential associations with cognitive status and somatic health. The SHH-Q may serve as a tool to assess how different facets of future time perspective relate to somatic health, cognition, motivation, and

  3. Evolving PBPK applications in regulatory risk assessment: current situation and future goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    The presentation includes current applications of PBPK modeling in regulatory risk assessment and discussions on conflicts between assuring consistency with experimental data in current situation and the desire for animal-free model development.

  4. Assessement of rheumatic diseases with computational radiology: current status and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peloschek, Philipp; Boesen, Mikael; Donner, Rene

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, several computational image analysis methods to assess disease progression in rheumatic diseases were presented. This review article explains the basics of these methods as well as their potential application in rheumatic disease monitoring, it covers radiography, sonography...

  5. Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

    2010-01-01

    The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

  6. Complex land systems: the need for long time perspectives to assess their future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dearing,, John A.; Braimoh, Ademola K.; Reenberg, Anette

    2010-01-01

    ) temporal perspectives on complex system behavior that can provide insights through both analog and evolutionary approaches. Analogs are useful in generating typologies of generic system behavior, whereas evolutionary assessments provide insight into site-specific system properties. Four dimensions...

  7. Competence and quality assessment: the future of training in GI endoscopy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V.E. Ekkelenkamp (Vivian)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ __Introduction__: Training procedural skills in gastrointestinal endoscopy once focused on threshold numbers. However, as threshold numbers poorly reflect individual competence, the focus gradually shifts towards a more individual approach. Tools to assess and

  8. The Future of Exposure Assessment: Perspectives from the X2012 Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    The British Occupational Hygiene Society, in collaboration with the Institute of Occupational Medicine, the University of Manchester, the UK Health and Safety Executive, and the University of Aberdeen hosted the 7th International Conference on the Science of Exposure Assessment (...

  9. Developing a phenological model for grapevine to assess future frost risk in Luxembourg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caffarra, A.; Molitor, D.; Pertot, I.; Sinigoy, P.; Junk, J.

    2012-04-01

    Late frost damage represents a significant hazard to grape production in cool climate viticulture regions such as Luxembourg. The main aim of our study is to analyze the frequency of these events for the Luxembourg's winegrowing region in the future. Spring frost injuries on grape may occur when young green parts are exposed to air temperature below 0°C. The potential risk is determined by: (i) minimum air temperature conditions and the (ii) the timing of bud burst. Therefore, we developed and validated a model for budburst of the grapevine (*Vitis vinifera)* cultivar Rivaner, the most grown local variety, based on multi-annual data from 7 different sites across Europe and the US. An advantage of this approach is, that it could be applied to a wide range of climate conditions. Higher spring temperatures were projected for the future and could lead to earlier dates of budburst as well as earlier dates of last frost events in the season. However, so far it is unknown if this will increase or decrease the risk of severe late frost damages for Luxembourg's winegrowing region. To address this question results of 10 regional climate change projections from the FP6 ENSEMBLES project (spatial resolution = 25km; A1B emission scenario) were combined with the new bud burst model. The use of a multi model ensemble of climate change projections allows for a better quantification of the uncertainties. A bias corrections scheme, based on local observations, was applied to the model output. Projected daily minimum air temperatures, up to 2098, were compared to the projected date of bud burst in order to quantify the future frost risk for Luxembourg.

  10. Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. Activity assessment first-half 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in the first half of 2006: market conditions, prices and traded volumes on Powernext (Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 ), new active members, and liquidity on the power market. (J.S.)

  11. Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

  12. An assessment of advanced displays and controls technology applicable to future space transportation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jack J.; Villarreal, Diana

    1990-01-01

    The topic of advanced display and control technology is addressed along with the major objectives of this technology, the current state of the art, major accomplishments, research programs and facilities, future trends, technology issues, space transportation systems applications and projected technology readiness for those applications. The holes that may exist between the technology needs of the transportation systems versus the research that is currently under way are addressed, and cultural changes that might facilitate the incorporation of these advanced technologies into future space transportation systems are recommended. Some of the objectives are to reduce life cycle costs, improve reliability and fault tolerance, use of standards for the incorporation of advancing technology, and reduction of weight, volume and power. Pilot workload can be reduced and the pilot's situational awareness can be improved, which would result in improved flight safety and operating efficiency. This could be accomplished through the use of integrated, electronic pictorial displays, consolidated controls, artificial intelligence, and human centered automation tools. The Orbiter Glass Cockpit Display is an example examined.

  13. Human factors assessment of conflict resolution aid reliability and time pressure in future air traffic control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trapsilawati, Fitri; Qu, Xingda; Wickens, Chris D; Chen, Chun-Hsien

    2015-01-01

    Though it has been reported that air traffic controllers' (ATCos') performance improves with the aid of a conflict resolution aid (CRA), the effects of imperfect automation on CRA are so far unknown. The main objective of this study was to examine the effects of imperfect automation on conflict resolution. Twelve students with ATC knowledge were instructed to complete ATC tasks in four CRA conditions including reliable, unreliable and high time pressure, unreliable and low time pressure, and manual conditions. Participants were able to resolve the designated conflicts more accurately and faster in the reliable versus unreliable CRA conditions. When comparing the unreliable CRA and manual conditions, unreliable CRA led to better conflict resolution performance and higher situation awareness. Surprisingly, high time pressure triggered better conflict resolution performance as compared to the low time pressure condition. The findings from the present study highlight the importance of CRA in future ATC operations. Practitioner Summary: Conflict resolution aid (CRA) is a proposed automation decision aid in air traffic control (ATC). It was found in the present study that CRA was able to promote air traffic controllers' performance even when it was not perfectly reliable. These findings highlight the importance of CRA in future ATC operations.

  14. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: comparative aspects and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorne, J L C M; Fink-Gremmels, J

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  16. Assessing the impacts of current and future concentrations of surface ozone on crop yield with meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhaozhong; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko

    Meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess the effects of rising ozone concentrations ([O 3]) on yield and yield components of major food crops: potato, barley, wheat, rice, bean and soybean in 406 experimental observations. Yield loss of the crops under current and future [O 3] was expressed relative to the yield under base [O 3] (≤26 ppb). With potato, current [O 3] (31-50 ppb) reduced the yield by 5.3%, and it reduced the yield of barley, wheat and rice by 8.9%, 9.7% and 17.5%, respectively. In bean and soybean, the yield losses were 19.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Compared with yield loss at current [O 3], future [O 3] (51-75 ppb) drove a further 10% loss in yield of soybean, wheat and rice, and 20% loss in bean. Mass of individual grain, seed, or tuber was often the major cause of the yield loss at current and future [O 3], whereas other yield components also contributed to the yield loss in some cases. No significant difference was found between the responses in crops grown in pots and those in the ground for any yield parameters. The ameliorating effect of elevated [CO 2] was significant in the yields of wheat and potato, and the individual grain weight in wheat exposed to future [O 3]. These findings confirm the rising [O 3] as a threat to food security for the growing global population in this century.

  17. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  18. Assessment of human intrusion and future human actions – Example from the Swedish LILW repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Eva; Hjerpe, T.; Smith, G.

    2016-01-01

    Recommendations for FHA assessments: • The assumption of only considering inadvertent intrusion and using todays practice and technology is a key tool to make the assessment understandable. • Even after siting has been done, the placement of the repository, should be discussed in FHA scenarios, e.g. placement away from resources, discussion of erosion, and land uplift. • FEPs a good tool, good for constructing relevant scenarios and also for communication of the FHA assessment. • A few stylized scenarios are enough, good to include a drilling scenario as it is often used by different organizations. • Precise probabilities are hard to defend, avoid if possible and instead use the low likelihood in communication of the FHA results. • Communication of FHA scenarios is a tool to build confidence in the robustness of repository systems

  19. Ecological models in support of regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: developing a strategy for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Valery E; Hommen, Udo; Thorbek, Pernille; Heimbach, Fred; Van den Brink, Paul J; Wogram, Jörn; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Grimm, Volker

    2009-01-01

    This brief communication reports on the main findings of the LEMTOX workshop, held from 9 to 12 September 2007, at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig, Germany. The workshop brought together a diverse group of stakeholders from academia, regulatory authorities, contract research organizations, and industry, representing Europe, the United States, and Asia, to discuss the role of ecological modeling in risk assessments of pesticides, particularly under the European regulatory framework. The following questions were addressed: What are the potential benefits of using ecological models in pesticide registration and risk assessment? What obstacles prevent ecological modeling from being used routinely in regulatory submissions? What actions are needed to overcome the identified obstacles? What recommendations should be made to ensure good modeling practice in this context? The workshop focused exclusively on population models, and discussion was focused on those categories of population models that link effects on individuals (e.g., survival, growth, reproduction, behavior) to effects on population dynamics. The workshop participants concluded that the overall benefits of ecological modeling are that it could bring more ecology into ecological risk assessment, and it could provide an excellent tool for exploring the importance of, and interactions among, ecological complexities. However, there are a number of challenges that need to be overcome before such models will receive wide acceptance for pesticide risk assessment, despite having been used extensively in other contexts (e.g., conservation biology). The need for guidance on Good Modeling Practice (on model development, analysis, interpretation, evaluation, documentation, and communication), as well as the need for case studies that can be used to explore the added value of ecological models for risk assessment, were identified as top priorities. Assessing recovery potential of exposed

  20. ASSESSING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AT THE PLUTONIUM FINISHING PLANT FOR PLANNING FUTURE DECONTAMINATION AND DECOMMISSIONING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HOPKINS, A.M.; KLOS, D.B.; MINETT, M.J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the fiscal year (FY) 2006 assessment to evaluate potential chemical and radiological hazards associated with vessels and piping in the former plutonium process areas at Hanford's Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). Evaluations by PFP engineers as design authorities for specific systems and other subject-matter experts were conducted to identify the chemical hazards associated with transitioning the process areas for the long-term layup of PFP before its eventual final decontamination and decommissioning (D and D). D and D activities in the main process facilities were suspended in September 2005 for a period of between 5 and 10 years. A previous assessment conducted in FY 2003 found that certain activities to mitigate chemical hazards could be deferred safely until the D and D of PFP, which had been scheduled to result in a slab-on-grade condition by 2009. As a result of necessary planning changes, however, D and D activities at PFP will be delayed until after the 2009 time frame. Given the extended project and plant life, it was determined that a review of the plant chemical hazards should be conducted. This review to determine the extended life impact of chemicals is called the ''Plutonium Finishing Plant Chemical Hazards Assessment, FY 2006''. This FY 2006 assessment addresses potential chemical and radiological hazard areas identified by facility personnel and subject-matter experts who reevaluated all the chemical systems (items) from the FY 2003 assessment. This paper provides the results of the FY 2006 chemical hazards assessment and describes the methodology used to assign a hazard ranking to the items reviewed

  1. Assessing the impact of systematic reviews on future research: two case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, Meera; Nerz, Patrick; Dalberth, Barbara; Voisin, Christiane; Lohr, Kathleen N; Tant, Elizabeth; Jonas, Daniel E; Carey, Timothy

    2012-07-01

    To evaluate the impact of systematic reviews on research funded by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) through Evidence-based Practice Centers (EPCs), and to identify barriers to and facilitators for the effects of these documents on future research. Two AHRQ systematic reviews were selected as case studies to evaluate their impact on future research. Key citations generated by these reports were identified through ISI Web of Science and PubMed Central and traced forward to identify effects on subsequent studies through citation analysis from updated systematic reviews on the topics. Requests for applications and program announcements from the NIH Guide for Grants and Contracts website were reviewed and dissemination data were obtained from AHRQ. Finally, interviews were conducted with 13 key informants to help identify short-, medium- and long-term impacts of the EPC reviews. The measurable impact of the two EPC reviews is demonstrably greater on short-term outcomes (greater awareness of the issues) than on medium-term (e.g., the generation of new knowledge) or long-term outcomes (e.g., changes in patient practice or health outcomes). Factors such as the topic and the timing of the report relative to the development of the field may explain the impact of these two AHRQ reports. The degree to which the new research can be directly attributed to the AHRQ reviews remains unclear. Key informants discussed several benefits stemming from the EPC reports, including providing a foundation for the research community on which to build, heightening awareness of the gaps in knowledge, increasing the quality of research and sparking new directions of research. However, the degree to which these reports were influential hinged on several factors including marketing efforts, the very nature of the reports and other influences external to the EPC domain. The findings outlined in this article illustrate the importance of numerous factors influencing future

  2. Outdoor recreation trends and futures: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell

    2012-01-01

    This publication presents a national study of outdoor recreation trends as part of the Renewable Resources Planning Act Assessment by the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. The objectives are to review past trends in outdoor recreation participation by Americans, to describe in detail current outdoor recreation participation patterns, and to compare...

  3. Men Who Abuse Their Spouses: An Approach to Assessing Future Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, Herbert R.

    1990-01-01

    Studied risk assessment for abuse cases by examining cases (N=20) referred to local spouse treatment center. Focused on woman's perception of mate's personality/behavioral characteristics and relationship plus other situational factors. Confirmed majority of risk factors associated with spouse abuse as reported in the literature. Presents pilot…

  4. The Ghost of Assessment Past and Hope for an E-Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickels, Juliet

    2015-01-01

    As a primary teacher and subject leader for science with an interest in valid, authentic modes of assessment, the author has looked forward to an era in which electronic formats would play a significant role and provide new benefits, as predicted by the experts for well over a decade. In this article, the author appeals for better software to…

  5. Performance assessment of a Multi-fuel Hybrid Engine for Future Aircraft

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, F.; Gangoli Rao, A.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents performance assessment of the proposed hybrid engine concept using Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) and kerosene. The multi-fuel hybrid engine is a new engine concept integrated with contra rotating fans, sequential dual combustion chambers to facilitate “Energy Mix” in aviation and a

  6. Performance assessment of a multi-fuel hybrid engine for future aircraft

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, F.; Gangoli Rao, A.; Bhat, Abhishek; Chen, Min

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents the performance assessment of a novel turbofan engine using two energy sources: Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) and kerosene, called Multi-Fuel Hybrid Engine (MFHE). The MFHE is a new engine concept consisting of several novel features, such as a contra-rotating fan to sustain

  7. Exploring the Notion of Quality in Quality Higher Education Assessment in a Collaborative Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, Kate; Gibbs, Paul

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to contribute to the debate on the notion of quality in higher education with particular focus on "objectifying through articulation" the assessment of quality by professional experts. The article gives an overview of the differentiations of quality as used in higher education. It explores a substantial…

  8. Assessement of rheumatic diseases with computational radiology: Current status and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peloschek, Philipp; Boesen, Mikael; Donner, Rene; Kubassova, Olga; Birngruber, Erich; Patsch, Janina; Mayerhoefer, Marius; Langs, Georg

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, several computational image analysis methods to assess disease progression in rheumatic diseases were presented. This review article explains the basics of these methods as well as their potential application in rheumatic disease monitoring, it covers radiography, sonography as well as magnetic resonance imaging in quantitative analysis frameworks.

  9. Regulatory Forum commentary: alternative mouse models for future cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Daniel; Sistare, Frank D; Nambiar, Prashant R; Turner, Oliver C; Radi, Zaher; Bower, Nancy

    2014-07-01

    International regulatory and pharmaceutical industry scientists are discussing revision of the International Conference on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) S1 guidance on rodent carcinogenicity assessment of small molecule pharmaceuticals. A weight-of-evidence approach is proposed to determine the need for rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with high human cancer risk, the product may be labeled appropriately without conducting rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with minimal cancer risk, only a 6-month transgenic mouse study (rasH2 mouse or p53+/- mouse) or a 2-year mouse study would be needed. If rodent carcinogenicity testing may add significant value to cancer risk assessment, a 2-year rat study and either a 6-month transgenic mouse or a 2-year mouse study is appropriate. In many cases, therefore, one rodent carcinogenicity study could be sufficient. The rasH2 model predicts neoplastic findings relevant to human cancer risk assessment as well as 2-year rodent models, produces fewer irrelevant neoplastic outcomes, and often will be preferable to a 2-year rodent study. Before revising ICH S1 guidance, a prospective evaluation will be conducted to test the proposed weight-of-evidence approach. This evaluation offers an opportunity for a secondary analysis comparing the value of alternative mouse models and 2-year rodent studies in the proposed ICH S1 weight-of-evidence approach for human cancer risk assessment. © 2014 by The Author(s).

  10. Performance assessment for continuing and future operations at solid waste storage area 6. Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-09-01

    This appendix provides the radionuclide inventory data used for the Solid Waste Storage Area (SWSA) 6 Performance Assessment (PA). The uncertainties in the radionuclide inventory data are also provided, along with the descriptions of the methods used to estimate the uncertainties. of the methods used to estimate the uncertainties

  11. Border-wide assessment of intelligent transportation system (ITS) technology : current and future concepts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The purpose of this effort was to conduct a border-wide assessment of the use of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technologies and operational concepts at and near land border crossings between the U.S. and Mexico. The work focused on tolling...

  12. Malnutrition-Sarcopenia Syndrome: Is This the Future of Nutrition Screening and Assessment for Older Adults?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurits F. J. Vandewoude

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Malnutrition is common across varying patient populations, particularly older adults, and sarcopenia prevalence increases with advancing age. Both malnutrition and sarcopenia are associated with substantial adverse outcomes affecting both the patient and the healthcare system, including increased morbidity, mortality, rehospitalization rates, and healthcare costs. Healthcare practitioners may assess patients for either malnutrition or sarcopenia; however, many patients clinically present with both conditions, resulting in the syndrome, Malnutrition-Sarcopenia Syndrome, which is the clinical presentation of both malnutrition and accelerated age-associated loss of lean body mass, strength, and/or functionality. Clinicians are urged to screen, assess, and treat these conditions currently so as to adequately address the full spectrum of patients’ nutritional issues. By examining aspects of both conditions, clinicians can more fully assess their patients’ clinical and nutritional status and can tailor targeted therapies to meet their needs and improve outcomes. This proposed syndrome embodies the inherent association of malnutrition and sarcopenia, highlighting their combined impact on clinical outcomes. The objective of this review paper is to characterize Malnutrition-Sarcopenia Syndrome to advance clinical practice, by providing clinicians with the necessary background information to integrate nutritional assessment along with loss of muscle mass and functionality in their everyday clinical practice.

  13. Decomposing passenger transport futures : Comparing results of global integrated assessment models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelenbosch, O. Y.; McCollum, D. L.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Bertram, C.; Carrara, S.; Daly, H.; Fujimori, S.; Kitous, A.; Kyle, P.; Ó Broin, E.; Karkatsoulis, P.; Sano, F.

    The transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs

  14. T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment: principles, current applications, and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hesper, Tobias; Bittersohl, Daniela; Krauspe, Ruediger; Zilkens, Christoph [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Hosalkar, Harish S. [Center of Hip Preservation and Children' s Orthopaedics, San Diego, CA (United States); Welsch, Goetz H. [Medical University of Vienna, MR Center, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Bittersohl, Bernd [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Heinrich-Heine University, Medical School, Department of Orthopaedics, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    2014-10-15

    With advances in joint preservation surgery that are intended to alter the course of osteoarthritis by early intervention, accurate and reliable assessment of the cartilage status is critical. Biochemically sensitive MRI techniques can add robust biomarkers for disease onset and progression, and therefore, could be meaningful assessment tools for the diagnosis and follow-up of cartilage abnormalities. T2* mapping could be a good alternative because it would combine the benefits of biochemical cartilage evaluation with remarkable features including short imaging time and the ability of high-resolution three-dimensional cartilage evaluation - without the need for contrast media administration or special hardware. Several in vitro and in vivo studies, which have elaborated on the potential of cartilage T2* assessment in various cartilage disease patterns and grades of degeneration, have been reported. However, much remains to be understood and certain unresolved questions have become apparent with these studies that are crucial to the further application of this technique. This review summarizes the principles of the technique and current applications of T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment. Limitations of recent studies are discussed and the potential implications for patient care are presented. (orig.)

  15. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giese, R.F.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1992-01-01

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report's purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science ampersand Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections

  16. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giese, R.F.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1992-08-25

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report's purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections.

  17. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giese, R.F.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1992-08-25

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report`s purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science & Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections.

  18. Back to the Future - Part 2. Post-mortem assessment and evolutionary role of the bio-medicolegal sciences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrara, Santo Davide; Cecchetto, Giovanni; Cecchi, Rossana; Favretto, Donata; Grabherr, Silke; Ishikawa, Takaki; Kondo, Toshikazu; Montisci, Massimo; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Bonati, Maurizio Rippa; Shokry, Dina; Vennemann, Marielle; Bajanowski, Thomas

    2017-07-01

    Part 2 of the review "Back to the Future" is dedicated to the evolutionary role of the bio-medicolegal sciences, reporting the historical profiles, the state of the art, and prospects for future development of the main related techniques and methods of the ancillary disciplines that have risen to the role of "autonomous" sciences, namely, Genetics and Genomics, Toxicology, Radiology, and Imaging, involved in historic synergy in the "post-mortem assessment," together with the mother discipline Legal Medicine, by way of its primary fundament, universally denominated as Forensic Pathology. The evolution of the scientific research and the increased accuracy of the various disciplines will be oriented towards the elaboration of an "algorithm," able to weigh the value of "evidence" placed at the disposal of the "justice system" as real truth and proof.

  19. Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. 2006 activity assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in 2006: market conditions (prices on the electricity market, prices on the CO 2 emission allowances market, weather conditions, institutional aspects of the CO 2 market, power generation and consumption, situation at the borders, fuel prices), traded volumes on Powernext (Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 ), new active members, and Powernext liquidity on the power market. (J.S.)

  20. Assessing Future Flood Hazards for Adaptation Planning in a Northern European Coastal Community

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, Niels H.; Molgaard, Mads R.

    2016-01-01

    From a transdisciplinary approach in the town of Thyboron, Denmark, we investigate couplings between sea state (i.e., mean and extreme) and flooding hazards today and ahead. This includes analyses of change and variability in the groundwater table, precipitation, land motion, geotechnical ground ......, and it will provide for more holistic solutions that both serve to protect the town and allow for business development and better municipal planning ahead....... properties, sewerage systems and other infrastructure to outline a more complete platform for the integration of knowledge into climate adaptation schemes at this highly vulnerable coastal location. It involves the engagement of the main stakeholders who, although having different responsibilities, interests......, needs of knowledge and data, and different timeframes for investment and planning, must join in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead to provide for better adaptation measures. Apart from obvious adverse effects from future storm surge events, knowledge about the coupled effects...

  1. Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho Geothermal Resource Assessment and Future Recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph C. Armstrong; Robert P. Breckenridge; Dennis L. Nielson; John W. Shervais; Thomas R. Wood

    2013-03-01

    The U.S. Air Force is facing a number of challenges as it moves into the future, one of the biggest being how to provide safe and secure energy to support base operations. A team of scientists and engineers met at Mountain Home Air Force Base in early 2011 near Boise, Idaho, to discuss the possibility of exploring for geothermal resources under the base. The team identified that there was a reasonable potential for geothermal resources based on data from an existing well. In addition, a regional gravity map helped identify several possible locations for drilling a new well. The team identified several possible sources of funding for this well—the most logical being to use U.S. Department of Energy funds to drill the upper half of the well and U.S. Air Force funds to drill the bottom half of the well. The well was designed as a slimhole well in accordance with State of Idaho Department of Water Resources rules and regulations. Drilling operations commenced at the Mountain Home site in July of 2011 and were completed in January of 2012. Temperatures increased gradually, especially below a depth of 2000 ft. Temperatures increased more rapidly below a depth of 5500 ft. The bottom of the well is at 5976 ft, where a temperature of about 140°C was recorded. The well flowed artesian from a depth below 5600 ft, until it was plugged off with drilling mud. Core samples were collected from the well and are being analyzed to help understand permeability at depth. Additional tests using a televiewer system will be run to evaluate orientation and directions at fractures, especially in the production zone. A final report on the well exploitation will be forthcoming later this year. The Air Force will use it to evaluate the geothermal resource potential for future private development options at Mountain Home Air Force Base. In conclusion, Recommendation for follow-up efforts include the following:

  2. Assessing distributions of two invasive species of contrasting habits in future climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panda, Rajendra Mohan; Behera, Mukunda Dev; Roy, Partha Sarathi

    2018-05-01

    Understanding the impact of climate change on species invasion is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation. Through this study, we try to answer how species differing in phenological cycles, specifically Cassia tora and Lantana camara, differ in the manner in which they invade new regions in India in the future climate. Since both species occupy identical niches, exploring their invasive potential in different climate change scenarios will offer critical insights into invasion and inform ecosystem management. We use three modelling protocols (i.e., maximum entropy, generalised linear model and generalised additive model) to predict the current distribution. Projections are made for both moderate (A1B) and extreme (A2) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios for the year 2050 and 2100. The study reveals that the distributions of C. tora (annual) and L. camara (perennial) would depend on the precipitation of the warmest quarter and moisture availability. C. tora may demonstrate physiological tolerance to the mean diurnal temperature range and L. camara to the solar radiation. C. tora may invade central India, while L. camara may invade the Western Himalaya, parts of the Eastern Himalaya and the Western Ghats. The distribution ranges of both species could shift in the northern and north-eastern directions in India, owing to changes in moisture availability. The possible alterations in precipitation regimes could lead to water stress, which might have cascading effects on species invasion. L. camara might adapt to climate change better compared with C. tora. This comparative analysis of the future distributions of two invasive plants with contrasting habits demonstrates that temporal complementarity would prevail over the competition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illing, Sebastian; Kadow, Christopher; Pohlmann, Holger; Timmreck, Claudia

    2018-06-01

    The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day-1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

  4. Grassland futures in Great Britain - Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Aiming; Holland, Robert A; Taylor, Gail; Richter, Goetz M

    2018-09-01

    To optimise trade-offs provided by future changes in grassland use intensity, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of respective grassland productivities are required at the systems level. Here, we benchmark the potential national availability of grassland biomass, identify optimal strategies for its management, and investigate the relative importance of intensification over reversion (prioritising productivity versus environmental ecosystem services). Process-conservative meta-models for different grasslands were used to calculate the baseline dry matter yields (DMY; 1961-1990) at 1km 2 resolution for the whole UK. The effects of climate change, rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] and technological progress on baseline DMYs were used to estimate future grassland productivities (up to 2050) for low and medium CO 2 emission scenarios of UKCP09. UK benchmark productivities of 12.5, 8.7 and 2.8t/ha on temporary, permanent and rough-grazing grassland, respectively, accounted for productivity gains by 2010. By 2050, productivities under medium emission scenario are predicted to increase to 15.5 and 9.8t/ha on temporary and permanent grassland, respectively, but not on rough grassland. Based on surveyed grassland distributions for Great Britain in 2010 the annual availability of grassland biomass is likely to rise from 64 to 72milliontonnes by 2050. Assuming optimal N application could close existing productivity gaps of ca. 40% a range of management options could deliver additional 21∗10 6 tonnes of biomass available for bioenergy. Scenarios of changes in grassland use intensity demonstrated considerable scope for maintaining or further increasing grassland production and sparing some grassland for the provision of environmental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Assessment of scapular positioning and function as future effect measure of shoulder interventions – an inter-examiner reliability study of the clinical assessment methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Camilla Marie; Eshøj, Henrik; Ingwersen, Kim Gordon

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of scapular positioning and function as future effect measure of shoulder interventions – an inter-examiner reliability study of the clinical assessment methods Eshøj H1, Ingwersen KG1, Larsen CM1, 2, Søgaard K1, Juul-Kristensen B1, 3 1 University of Southern Denmark, Institute of Sports...... only been tested for intra-examiner reliability. The objective was to investigate the inter-examiner reliability of an extended battery of clinical tests for assessing scapular positioning and function. Methods A standardized three-phase protocol for clinical reliability studies was conducted...... coefficients (ICC) and kappa values were interpreted as: 0.0-0.40 (poor); 0.40-0.75 (fair to good); and 0.75-1.00 (good to excellent). Results A total of 41 subjects (23 males, yrs 25±9), were recruited among adult overhead athletes from the municipality of Odense, DK. Prevalence of the index condition was 54...

  6. Performance assessment for continuing and future operations at Solid Waste Storage Area 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-02-01

    This radiological performance assessment for the continued disposal operations at Solid Waste Storage Area 6 (SWSA 6) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) has been prepared to demonstrate compliance with the requirements of the US DOE. The analysis of SWSA 6 required the use of assumptions to supplement the available site data when the available data were incomplete for the purpose of analysis. Results indicate that SWSA 6 does not presently meet the performance objectives of DOE Order 5820.2A. Changes in operations and continued work on the performance assessment are expected to demonstrate compliance with the performance objectives for continuing operations at the Interim Waste Management Facility (IWMF). All other disposal operations in SWSA 6 are to be discontinued as of January 1, 1994. The disposal units at which disposal operations are discontinued will be subject to CERCLA remediation, which will result in acceptable protection of the public health and safety

  7. Performance assessment for continuing and future operations at Solid Waste Storage Area 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-02-01

    This radiological performance assessment for the continued disposal operations at Solid Waste Storage Area 6 (SWSA 6) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) has been prepared to demonstrate compliance with the requirements of the US DOE. The analysis of SWSA 6 required the use of assumptions to supplement the available site data when the available data were incomplete for the purpose of analysis. Results indicate that SWSA 6 does not presently meet the performance objectives of DOE Order 5820.2A. Changes in operations and continued work on the performance assessment are expected to demonstrate compliance with the performance objectives for continuing operations at the Interim Waste Management Facility (IWMF). All other disposal operations in SWSA 6 are to be discontinued as of January 1, 1994. The disposal units at which disposal operations are discontinued will be subject to CERCLA remediation, which will result in acceptable protection of the public health and safety.

  8. Performance assessment for continuing and future operations at solid waste storage area 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-09-01

    This revised performance assessment (PA) for the continued disposal operations at Solid Waste Storage Area (SWSA) 6 on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) has been prepared to demonstrate compliance with the performance objectives for low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal contained in the US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5820.2A. This revised PA considers disposal operations conducted from September 26, 1988, through the projects lifetime of the disposal facility

  9. Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions, The

    OpenAIRE

    Philip W. Gassman; Manuel R. Reyes; Colleen H. Green; Jeffrey G. Arnold

    2007-01-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a continuation of nearly 30 years of modeling efforts conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricultural Research Service. SWAT has gained international acceptance as a robust interdisciplinary watershed modeling tool, as evidenced by international SWAT conferences, hundreds of SWAT-related papers presented at numerous scientific meetings, and dozens of articles published in peer-reviewed journals. The model has also been ad...

  10. THE ASSESSMENT OF ENTREPRENEURIAL PERSONALITY: THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Javier Suárez-Álvarez; Ignacio Pedrosa

    2016-01-01

    Entrepreneurship is fundamental in modern society because it represents an important source of innovation, employment, productivity, and growth. While the first theoretical models arose from economic and sociological approaches, psychology provides models that integrate different aspects such as cognitions, attitudes and personality, which allow a more detailed study. The purpose of this paper is to show the main contributions of psychology to the assessment of the enterprising personality. F...

  11. Performance assessment for continuing and future operations at solid waste storage area 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-09-01

    This revised performance assessment (PA) for the continued disposal operations at Solid Waste Storage Area (SWSA) 6 on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) has been prepared to demonstrate compliance with the performance objectives for low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal contained in the US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5820.2A. This revised PA considers disposal operations conducted from September 26, 1988, through the projects lifetime of the disposal facility.

  12. A Critical Assessment of the Resource Depletion Potential of Current and Future Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens F. Peters

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Resource depletion aspects are repeatedly used as an argument for a shift towards new battery technologies. However, whether serious shortages due to the increased demand for traction and stationary batteries can actually be expected is subject to an ongoing discussion. In order to identify the principal drivers of resource depletion for battery production, we assess different lithium-ion battery types and a new lithium-free battery technology (sodium-ion under this aspect, applying different assessment methodologies. The findings show that very different results are obtained with existing impact assessment methodologies, which hinders clear interpretation. While cobalt, nickel and copper can generally be considered as critical metals, the magnitude of their depletion impacts in comparison with that of other battery materials like lithium, aluminum or manganese differs substantially. A high importance is also found for indirect resource depletion effects caused by the co-extraction of metals from mixed ores. Remarkably, the resource depletion potential per kg of produced battery is driven only partially by the electrode materials and thus depends comparably little on the battery chemistry itself. One of the key drivers for resource depletion seems to be the metals (and co-products in electronic parts required for the battery management system, a component rather independent from the actual battery chemistry. However, when assessing the batteries on a capacity basis (per kWh storage capacity, a high-energy density also turns out to be relevant, since it reduces the mass of battery required for providing one kWh, and thus the associated resource depletion impacts.

  13. Health technology assessment and its role in the future development of the Indian healthcare sector

    OpenAIRE

    Hass, Bastian; Pooley, Jayne; Feuring, Martin; Suvarna, Viraj; Harrington, Adrian E.

    2012-01-01

    Public expenditure on healthcare in India is low by international comparison, and access to essential treatment pushes many uninsured citizens below the poverty line. In many countries, policymakers utilize health technology assessment (HTA) methodologies to direct investments in healthcare, to obtain the maximum benefit for the population as a whole. With rising incomes and a commitment from the Government of India to increase the proportion of gross domestic product spent on health, this is...

  14. Comparative environmental assessment of current and future electricity supply technologies for Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, C.; Dones, R.; Heck, T.; Hirschberg, S.

    2007-01-01

    The environmental performance of a portfolio of eighteen technologies for electricity generation including renewable, fossil, and nuclear systems was analyzed for two reference years 2000 and 2030. The assessment covers large centralized and smaller decentralized power plants in Switzerland and few other European countries (for electricity imports). Evolutionary technology development was assumed between today and 2030. Full life cycle inventories were established for all energy chains, using 'ecoinvent' as the background inventory database. The average European electricity mix in 2030 was adapted using a business-as-usual scenario. The environmental assessment was part of a more comprehensive interdisciplinary sustainability evaluation using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. Results from this evaluation for the environment area alone are herewith compared using Eco-indicator'99 as representative LCIA method as well as external cost assessment. In general the rankings from different aggregation methodologies converge when considering common indicators. However, putting different emphasis or weight on impact categories and individual indicators introduces variation in the ranking. Superior environmental performance of hydro power is ascertained by all approaches. Nuclear follows hydro as top performer based on Eco-indicator 99 (H, A) and external costs. Fossil systems score worst and biomass shows mostly worse performance than other renewables. (author)

  15. Environmental impacts of future low-carbon electricity systems: Detailed life cycle assessment of a Danish case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turconi, Roberto; Tonini, Davide; Nielsen, Christian F.B.; Simonsen, Christian G.; Astrup, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Environmental impact of a power system with a high share of wind power assessed. • LCI data for electricity supply in Denmark in 2010 and 2030 (low carbon) provided. • Focus on GHG reduction may lead to increase in other impact categories. • Imported biomass might cause high GHG emissions form Land Use Change. • Need for guidelines for LCA of electricity supply (cogeneration and power import). - Abstract: The need to reduce dependency on fossil resources and to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is driving many countries towards the implementation of low-carbon electricity systems. In this study the environmental impact of a future (2030) possible low-carbon electricity system in Denmark was assessed and compared with the current situation (2010) and an alternative 2030 scenario using life cycle assessment (LCA). The influence on the final results of the modeling approach used for (i) electricity import, (ii) biomass resources, and (iii) the cogeneration of heat and power was discussed. The results showed that consumption of fossil resources and global warming impacts from the Danish electricity sector could be reduced significantly compared with 2010. Nevertheless, a reduction in GHG may be at the expense of other environmental impacts, such as the increased depletion of abiotic resources. Moreover, the results were very dependent upon biomass origin: when agricultural land was affected by biomass import, and land use changes and transportation were included, GHG emissions from imported biomass were comparable to those from fossil fuels. The results were significantly influenced by the modeling approach regarding the import of electricity, biomass provision, and the allocation between heat and power in cogeneration plants. As the importance of all three aspects is likely to increase in the future, transparency in LCA modeling is critical. Characterized impacts for Danish power plants in 2010 and 2030 (including corresponding

  16. Microbial Community Assessment in Wetlands for Water Pollution Control: Past, Present, and Future Outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kela P. Weber

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The field of treatment wetlands (TWs is rapidly expanding and, arguably, is tasked with studying and understanding one of the most complex water treatment systems available. Microbial communities are generally considered to be responsible for the majority of wastewater constituent degradation in TWs. However, they are also known to be spatially heterogeneous, temporally dynamic, as well as structurally and functionally diverse. Presented here is a meta-analysis of all peer reviewed TW journal articles which utilized a microbial community assessment methodology over the period of 1988 to July 2016. A total of 1101 papers were reviewed, 512 from 1988 to 2012, 215 of which included a microbial community assessment aspect and were subsequently classified as representing past research, and 589 from 2013 to July 2016, 196 of which were classified as representing current TW microbial community research. In general, TW microbial community research has increased over time, with a marked surge in the past four years. Microbial community structure is currently the most commonly used methodological type followed by activity, enumeration and function, respectively. Areas of research focus included nitrogen transformations (156, organic degradation (33, and emerging contaminants (32, with general characterization studies also accounting for a significant proportion (243. Microbial communities from a range of TW systems have been investigated over the last four years with meso-scale (10–1000 L being the most commonly studied system size followed by large-scale (>100,000 L, micro-scale (<10 L, and pilot-scale (1000–100,000 L. Free water surface flow (SF, horizontal subsurface flow (HF, and vertical flow (VF systems are being studied in approximately equal proportions with the majority of studies focused on gaining fixed media/biofilm samples for analysis (rather than from the rhizosphere or interstitial water. Looking at efforts from a regional perspective

  17. Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

  18. Applying comprehensive environmental assessment to research planning for multiwalled carbon nanotubes: Refinements to inform future stakeholder engagement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Christina M; Grieger, Khara; Meacham, Connie A; Gooding, Meredith Lassiter; Gift, Jeffrey S; Lehmann, Geniece M; Hendren, Christine O; Davis, J Michael; Burgoon, Lyle

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessments and risk management efforts to protect human health and the environment can benefit from early, coordinated research planning by researchers, risk assessors, and risk managers. However, approaches for engaging these and other stakeholders in research planning have not received much attention in the environmental scientific literature. The Comprehensive Environmental Assessment (CEA) approach under development by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is a means to manage complex information and input from diverse stakeholder perspectives on research planning that will ultimately support environmental and human health decision making. The objectives of this article are to 1) describe the outcomes of applying lessons learned from previous CEA applications to planning research on engineered nanomaterial, multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and 2) discuss new insights and refinements for future efforts to engage stakeholders in research planning for risk assessment and risk management of environmental issues. Although framed in terms of MWCNTs, this discussion is intended to enhance research planning to support assessments for other environmental issues as well. Key insights for research planning include the potential benefits of 1) ensuring that participants have research, risk assessment, and risk management expertise in addition to diverse disciplinary backgrounds; 2) including an early scoping step before rounds of formal ratings; 3) using a familiar numeric scale (e.g., US dollars) versus ordinal rating scales of "importance"; 4) applying virtual communication tools to supplement face-to-face interaction between participants; and 5) refining criteria to guide development of specific, actionable research questions. © 2015 SETAC.

  19. An Assessment of the Economics of Future Electric Power Generation Options and the Implications for Fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Hadley, S.; Reid, R.L.; Sheffield, J.; Williams, K.A.

    1999-01-01

    This study examines the potential range of electric power costs for some major alternatives to fusion electric power generation when it is ultimately deployed in the middle of the 21st century and, thus, offers a perspective on the cost levels that fusion must achieve to be competitive. The alternative technologies include coal burning, coal gasification, natural gas, nuclear fission, and renewable energy. The cost of electricity (COE) from the alternatives to fusion should remain in the 30-50 mils/kWh (1999 dollars) range of today in carbon sequestration is not needed, 30-60 mils/kWh if sequestration is required, or as high as 75 mils/kWh for the worst-case scenario for cost uncertainty. The reference COE range for fusion was estimated at 70-100 nmils/kWh for 1- to 1.3-GW(e) scale power plants. Fusion costs will have to be reduced and/or alternative concepts derived before fusion will be competitive with the alternatives for the future production of electricity. Fortunately, there are routes to achieve this goal

  20. Current and Future Friends of the Earth: Assessing Cross-National Theories of Environmental Attitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Stenner

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Empirical studies of public opinion on environmental protection have typically been grounded in Inglehart’s post-materialism thesis, proposing that societal affluence encourages materially-sated publics to look beyond their interests and value the environment. These studies are generally conducted within, or at best across, Western, democratic, industrialized countries. Absence of truly cross-cultural research means the theory’s limitations have gone undetected. This article draws on an exceptionally broad dataset—pooling cross-sectional survey data from 80 countries, each sampled at up to three different points over 15 years—to investigate environmental attitudes. We find that post-materialism provides little account of pro-environment attitudes across diverse cultures, and a far from adequate explanation even in the affluent West. We suggest that unique domestic interests, more than broad value systems, are driving emerging global trends in environmental attitudes. The environment’s future champions may be the far from ‘post-material’ citizens of those developing nations most at risk of real material harm from climate change and environmental degradation.

  1. Assessing the Fauna Diversity of Marudu Bay Mangrove Forest, Sabah, Malaysia, for Future Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Zakaria

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Mangrove is an evergreen, salt tolerant plant community, which grows in inter-tidal coastal zones of tropical and subtropical regions of the world. They are ecologically important for many fauna species and are rich in food resources and consist of many different vegetation structures. They serve as ideal foraging and nursery grounds for a wide array of species such as birds, mammals, reptiles, fishes and aquatic invertebrates. In spite of their crucial role, around 50% of mangrove habitats have been lost and degraded in the past two decades. The fauna diversity of mangrove habitat at Marudu Bay, Sabah, East Malaysia was examined using various methods: i.e. aquatic invertebrates by swap nets, fish by angling rods and cast nets, reptiles, birds, and mammals through direct sighting. The result showed that Marudu Bay mangrove habitats harbored a diversity of fauna species including 22 aquatic invertebrate species (encompassing 11 crustacean species, six mollusk species and four worm species, 36 fish species, 74 bird species, four reptile species, and four mammal species. The wide array of fauna species could be due to the availability of complex vegetation structures, sheltered beaches and tidal mudflats, which are rich in food resources and also offer safe foraging and breeding grounds for them. These heterogeneous habitats must be protected in a sustainable way in order to ensure the continued presence of aquatic and terrestrial fauna species for future generations.

  2. Railroad electrification in America's future: an assessment of prospects and impacts. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, R.K.; Yabroff, I.W.; Dickson, E.M.; Zink, R.A.; Gray, M.E.; Moon, A.E.

    1980-01-01

    Such considerations as the level of traffic, the relative financial health of individual railroads, the capacity of the associated supply and engineering/construction industries, and the logical connecting points at classifying yards, as well as the national interest value of creating a continuous system, continental in scope, were used to construct a scenario for railroad electrification that closely approximates how an electrification program might be implemented. For the economic reasons cited, much of the US railroad system would remain conventionally powered. This scenario provides for an electrified network involving 14 mainlines operated by 10 companies that could transport much of the nation's rail-borne freight. Five years of planning and engineering work would be required for each link before construction could begin. With 1000 miles or less of electrified route per year, 14 years would be needed to construct the 9000-mile network of our scenario. (The scenario constructed runs from 1980 to 1998.) The analysis was aided with the construction of the SRI Railroad Industry Model. Basically a model of industry operations and finances, the model produces income statements and balance sheets at yearly intervals. Railroad energy costs, railroad freight levels, maintenance costs, purchases and leases of rooling stock, electrification facility investments, future inflation, rate setting practices, annual depreciation, taxes, and profits were calculated.

  3. Assessment of the potential future market in Sweden for hydrogen as an energy carrier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleson, G.

    Future hydrogen markets for the period 1980-2025 are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs for various manufacturing methods is estimated, and expected market shares in competition with alternative energy carriers are evaluated. A general scenario for economic and industrial development in Sweden for the given period was evaluated, showing the average increase in gross national product to become 1.6% per year. Three different energy scenarios were then developed: alternatives were based on nuclear energy, renewable indigenous energy sources, and the present energy situation with free access to imported natural or synthetic fuels. An analysis was made within each scenario of the competitiveness of hydrogen on both the demand and the supply of the following sectors: chemical industry, steel industry, peak power production, residential and commercial heating, and transportation. Costs were calculated for the production, storage and transmission of hydrogen according to technically feasible methods and were compared to those of alternative energy carriers. Health, environmental and societal implications were also considered. The market penetration of hydrogen in each sector was estimated, and the required investment capital was shown to be less than 4% of the national gross investment sum.

  4. Assessing future reactive nitrogen inputs into global croplands based on the shared socioeconomic pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogollón, J. M.; Lassaletta, L.; Beusen, A. H. W.; van Grinsven, H. J. M.; Westhoek, H.; Bouwman, A. F.

    2018-04-01

    Reactive nitrogen (N) inputs in agriculture strongly outpace the outputs at the global scale due to inefficiencies in cropland N use. While improvement in agricultural practices and environmental legislation in developed regions such as Western Europe have led to a remarkable increase in the N use efficiency since 1985, this lower requirement for reactive N inputs via synthetic fertilizers has yet to occur in many developing and transition regions. Here, we explore future N input requirements and N use efficiency in agriculture for the five shared socioeconomic pathways. Results show that under the most optimistic sustainability scenario, the global synthetic fertilizer use in croplands stabilizes and even shrinks (85 Tg N yr‑1 in 2050) regardless of the increase in crop production required to feed the larger estimated population. This scenario is highly dependent on projected increases in N use efficiency, particularly in South and East Asia. In our most pessimistic scenario, synthetic fertilization application rates are expected to increase almost threefold by 2050 (260 Tg N yr‑1). Excepting the sustainability scenario, all other projected scenarios reveal that the areal N surpluses will exceed acceptable limits in most of the developing regions.

  5. Assessing future flood hazards for adaptation planning in a northern European coastal community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo eSorensen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available From a transdisciplinary approach in the town of Thyboron, Denmark, we investigate couplings between sea state (i.e. mean and extreme and flooding hazards today and ahead. This includes analyses of change and variability in the groundwater table, precipitation, land motion, geotechnical ground properties, sewerage systems and other infrastructure to outline a more complete platform for the integration of knowledge into climate adaptation schemes at this highly vulnerable coastal location. It involves the engagement of the main stakeholders who, although having different responsibilities, interests, needs of knowledge and data, and different timeframes for investment and planning, must join in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead to provide for better adaptation measures. Apart from obvious adverse effects from future storm surge events, knowledge about the coupled effects of the abovementioned parameters needs to be taken into account to reach optimal mitigation and adaptation measures. Through stakeholder interviews it becomes clear that an enhanced focus on transdisciplinary research is a viable way forward to develop such measures: it will bring in more knowledge, a broader scope, and it will provide for more holistic solutions that both serve to protect the town and allow for business development and better municipal planning ahead.

  6. The future of natural gas consumption in Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai: An assessment utilizing MARKAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Binbin; Wenying, Chen; Yu Yuefeng; Zeng Lemin; Victor, David

    2008-01-01

    Natural gas could possibly become a si0gnificant portion of the future fuel mix in China. However, there is still great uncertainty surrounding the size of this potential market and therefore its impact on the global gas trade. In order to identify some of the important factors that might drive natural gas consumption in key demand areas in China, we focus on three regions: Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai. Using the economic optimization model MARKAL, we initially assume that the drivers are government mandates of emissions standards, reform of the Chinese financial structure, the price and available supply of natural gas, and the rate of penetration of advanced power generating and end-use. The results from the model show that the level of natural gas consumption is most sensitive to policy scenarios, which strictly limit SO 2 emissions from power plants. The model also revealed that the low cost of capital for power plants in China boosts the economic viability of capital-intensive coal-fired plants. This suggests that reform within the financial sector could be a lever for encouraging increased natural gas use

  7. Spray cooling heat transfer: Technology overview and assessment of future challenges for micro-gravity application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silk, Eric A.; Golliher, Eric L.; Paneer Selvam, R.

    2008-01-01

    Advanced on-board flight systems for future NASA space exploration programs consist of components such as laser-diode arrays (LDA's) and multi-chip modules (MCM's). Thermal management of these systems require high heat flux cooling capability (≥100 W/cm 2 ), tight temperature control (approx. ±2 deg. C), reliable start-up (on demand) and long term stability. Traditional multiphase thermal control technologies for space flight (e.g., loop heat pipes, capillary pumped loops, etc.) satisfy the temperature control, start-up and stability requirements, but their heat flux removal capabilities are limited. Spray cooling can provide high heat fluxes in excess of 100 W/cm 2 using fluorinerts and over 1000 W/cm 2 with water while allowing tight temperature control at low coolant fluid flow rates. Spray cooling has been flight proven in an open loop configuration through the Space shuttle's flash evaporator system (FES). However, several closed system issues require investigation to further advance the technology to a technology readiness level (TRL) appropriate for closed system space flight application. This paper provides a discussion of the current status of spray cooling technology as well as NASA's goals, current direction, and challenges associated with the implementation and practice of this technology in the micro-gravity environment

  8. Assessment of lung ventilation by MR imaging: current status and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Hanke, Alexander; Beek, Edwin J.R. van

    2002-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to review the present status of novel MRI techniques as a new important instrument for functional ventilation imaging. The current status and future perspectives in research and clinical applications are summarized. Morphological lung imaging is based on chest radiography and computed tomography, whereas scintigraphy is used for ventilation imaging. During recent years, MRI has emerged as a new means for functional imaging of ventilation. Aerosolized contrast agents and oxygen are used in proton imaging, whereas non-proton imaging relies on fluorine compounds, such as sulfur hexafluoride and perfluorcarbons, or on hyperpolarized noble gases, such as helium-3 or xenon-129. All the gases are administered as inhaled ''contrast agents'' for imaging of the airways and airspaces. In general, straightforward images demonstrate the homogeneity of ventilation in a breath-hold and allow for determination of ventilated lung. The different properties of the different compounds enable the measurement of additional functional parameters. They comprise airspace size, regional oxygen partial pressure, and analysis of ventilation distribution, ventilation/perfusion ratios, and gas exchange, including oxygen uptake. Novel MRI techniques provide the potential for functional imaging of ventilation. The next steps include definition of the value and the potential of the different contrast mechanisms as well as determination of the significance of the functional information with regard to physiological research and patient management in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and others. (orig.)

  9. An Assessment of the Economics of Future Electric Power Generation Options and the Implications for Fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, Jerry G.; Sheffield, John; Williams, Kent A.; Reid, R. Lowell; Hadley, Stan

    2001-01-01

    This study examines the potential range of electric power costs for some major alternatives to fusion electric power generation when it is ultimately deployed in the middle of the 21st century and, thus, offers a perspective on the cost levels that fusion must achieve to be competitive. The alternative technologies include coal burning, coal gasification, natural gas, nuclear fission, and renewable energy. The cost of electricity (COE) from the alternatives to fusion should be in a 30 to 53 mills/kW.h (1999 dollars) range if carbon sequestration is not needed, 30 to 61 mills/kW.h if sequestration is required, or as high as 83 mills/kW.h for the worst-case scenario for cost uncertainty. The reference COE range for fusion was estimated at 65 to 102 mills/kW.h for 1- to 1.3-GW(electric) scale power plants, based on the tokamak concept. Tokamak fusion costs will have to be reduced and/or cost-effective alternative nontokamak concepts devised before fusion will be competitive with the alternatives for the future production of electricity. Fortunately, there are routes to achieve this goal. Recent results from fusion experiments and developments in technology and engineering solutions indicate that lower cost fusion power plants are possible at the 1-GW(electric) level. Another general route for fusion to reduce costs is to go to large plant sizes [multigigawatts (electric)

  10. Automated essay scoring and the future of educational assessment in medical education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gierl, Mark J; Latifi, Syed; Lai, Hollis; Boulais, André-Philippe; De Champlain, André

    2014-10-01

    Constructed-response tasks, which range from short-answer tests to essay questions, are included in assessments of medical knowledge because they allow educators to measure students' ability to think, reason, solve complex problems, communicate and collaborate through their use of writing. However, constructed-response tasks are also costly to administer and challenging to score because they rely on human raters. One alternative to the manual scoring process is to integrate computer technology with writing assessment. The process of scoring written responses using computer programs is known as 'automated essay scoring' (AES). An AES system uses a computer program that builds a scoring model by extracting linguistic features from a constructed-response prompt that has been pre-scored by human raters and then, using machine learning algorithms, maps the linguistic features to the human scores so that the computer can be used to classify (i.e. score or grade) the responses of a new group of students. The accuracy of the score classification can be evaluated using different measures of agreement. Automated essay scoring provides a method for scoring constructed-response tests that complements the current use of selected-response testing in medical education. The method can serve medical educators by providing the summative scores required for high-stakes testing. It can also serve medical students by providing them with detailed feedback as part of a formative assessment process. Automated essay scoring systems yield scores that consistently agree with those of human raters at a level as high, if not higher, as the level of agreement among human raters themselves. The system offers medical educators many benefits for scoring constructed-response tasks, such as improving the consistency of scoring, reducing the time required for scoring and reporting, minimising the costs of scoring, and providing students with immediate feedback on constructed-response tasks. © 2014

  11. Future developments and technological and economic assessment of methods for producing synthetic liquid fuel from coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shlikhter, E B; Khor' kov, A V; Zhorov, Yu M

    1980-11-01

    Promising methods for obtaining synthetic liquid fuel from coal are surveyed and described: thermal dissolution of coal by means of a hydrogen donor solution: hydrogenation; gasification with subsequent synthesis and pyrolysis. A technological and economic assessment of the above processes is given. Emphasis is placed on methods employing catalytic conversion of methanol into hydrocarbon fuels. On the basis of thermodynamic calculations of the process for obtaining high-calorific liquid fuel from methanol the possibility of obtaining diesel fractions as well as gasoline is demonstrated. (12 refs.) (In Russian)

  12. Comparative assessment of risks from Philippine energy systems in the far future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonin, Teofilo V.

    1998-01-01

    The growing demand for electricity to support the economic development of the country has prompted the Philippine government to emphasize sustainable development and the integration of environmental concerns in the planning and implementation of energy programs. Based on the new long term Philippine Energy Plan, the total energy requirement will increase by an annual average of 66% up to the year 2025. There will be a growing dependence on coal fuel which will contribute significantly to the total carbon dioxide emissions in the next century. Activities on the comparative assessment of impacts of the different energy sources are also discussed. (author)

  13. Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield Risk Management of Adenocarcinoma: The Future of Imaging?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Finbar; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Boland, Jennifer M; Karwoski, Ronald A; Maldonado, Fabien; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

    2013-11-01

    Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned. © 2013.

  15. Nuclear power and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA): past through future applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamatelatos, M. G.; Moieni, P.; Everline, C. J.

    1995-03-01

    Nuclear power reactor safety in the United States is about to enter a new era -- an era of risk- based management and risk-based regulation. First, there was the age of `prescribed safety assessment,' during which a series of design-basis accidents in eight categories of severity, or classes, were postulated and analyzed. Toward the end of that era, it was recognized that `Class 9,' or `beyond design basis,' accidents would need special attention because of the potentially severe health and financial consequences of these accidents. The accident at Three Mile Island showed that sequences of low-consequence, high-frequency events and human errors can be much more risk dominant than the Class 9 accidents. A different form of safety assessment, PSA, emerged and began to gain ground against the deterministic safety establishment. Eventually, this led to the current regulatory requirements for individual plant examinations (IPEs). The IPEs can serve as a basis for risk-based regulation and management, a concept that may ultimately transform the U.S. regulatory process from its traditional deterministic foundations to a process predicated upon PSA. Beyond the possibility of a regulatory environment predicated upon PSA lies the possibility of using PSA as the foundation for managing daily nuclear power plant operations.

  16. Proprioception: where are we now? A commentary on clinical assessment, changes across the life course, functional implications and future interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suetterlin, Karen Joan; Sayer, Avan Aihie

    2014-05-01

    Proprioception, the sense of where one is in space, is essential for effective interaction with the environment. A lack of or reduction in proprioceptive acuity has been directly correlated with falls and with reduced functional independence in older people. Proprioceptive losses have also been shown to negatively correlate with functional recovery post stroke and play a significant role in other conditions such as Parkinson's disease. However, despite its central importance to many geriatric syndromes, the clinical assessment of proprioception has remained remarkably static. We look at approaches to the clinical assessment of proprioception, changes in proprioception across the life course, functional implications of proprioception in health and disease and the potential for targeted interventions in the future such as joint taping, and proprioception-specific rehabilitation and footwear.

  17. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, Jeffrey I.; Chapman, Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  18. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  19. Assessment of Future Whole-System Value of Large-Scale Pumped Storage Plants in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Teng

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the impacts and benefits of the pumped storage plant (PSP and its upgrade to variable speed on generation and transmission capacity requirements, capital costs, system operating costs and carbon emissions in the future European electricity system. The combination of a deterministic system planning tool, Whole-electricity System Investment Model (WeSIM, and a stochastic system operation optimisation tool, Advanced Stochastic Unit Commitment (ASUC, is used to analyse the whole-system value of PSP technology and to quantify the impact of European balancing market integration and other competing flexible technologies on the value of the PSP. Case studies on the Pan-European system demonstrate that PSPs can reduce the total system cost by up to €13 billion per annum by 2050 in a scenario with a high share of renewables. Upgrading the PSP to variable-speed drive enhances its long-term benefits by 10–20%. On the other hand, balancing market integration across Europe may potentially reduce the overall value of the variable-speed PSP, although the effect can vary across different European regions. The results also suggest that large-scale deployment of demand-side response (DSR leads to a significant reduction in the value of PSPs, while the value of PSPs increases by circa 18% when the total European interconnection capacity is halved. The benefit of PSPs in reducing emissions is relatively negligible by 2030 but constitutes around 6–10% of total annual carbon emissions from the European power sector by 2050.

  20. Assessing the Future Vehicle Fleet Electrification: The Impacts on Regional and Urban Air Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, Wenwei; Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Hao, Jiming

    2017-01-17

    There have been significant advancements in electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years. However, the different changing patterns in emissions at upstream and on-road stages and complex atmospheric chemistry of pollutants lead to uncertainty in the air quality benefits from fleet electrification. This study considers the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in China to investigate whether EVs can improve future air quality. The Community Multiscale Air Quality model enhanced by the two-dimensional volatility basis set module is applied to simulate the temporally, spatially, and chemically resolved changes in PM 2.5 concentrations and the changes of other pollutants from fleet electrification. A probable scenario (Scenario EV1) with 20% of private light-duty passenger vehicles and 80% of commercial passenger vehicles (e.g., taxis and buses) electrified can reduce average PM 2.5 concentrations by 0.4 to 1.1 μg m -3 during four representative months for all urban areas of YRD in 2030. The seasonal distinctions of the air quality impacts with respect to concentration reductions in key aerosol components are also identified. For example, the PM 2.5 reduction in January is mainly attributed to the nitrate reduction, whereas the secondary organic aerosol reduction is another essential contributor in August. EVs can also effectively assist in mitigating NO 2 concentrations, which would gain greater reductions for traffic-dense urban areas (e.g., Shanghai). This paper reveals that the fleet electrification in the YRD region could generally play a positive role in improving regional and urban air quality.

  1. Future mobility case studies. Life cycle assessments of BEVs and ICVs with a global perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Hongrui; Riera-Palou, Xavier; Tait, Nigel [Shell Global Solutions (United Kingdom), Chester (United Kingdom). Shell Technology Center Thornton; Balthasar, Felix; Warnecke, Wolfgang [Shell Global Solutions (Deutschland) GmbH, Hamburg (Germany). PAE-Labor

    2012-11-01

    To highlight the potential risks associated with simplification, we present a relevant case study on electric vehicles, where the outcome of the analysis changes substantially with the methodological/system boundary choices made. Electric vehicles have increasingly gained worldwide interest as one of the most promising potential long-term solutions to sustainable personal mobility; in particular, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer zero tailpipe emissions enabling them not only to reduce transport GHG emissions but also to reduce other regulated emissions (e.g. smog). However, their true ability to contribute to GHG emissions reductions can only be properly assessed by comparing a full life cycle assessment of their GHG emissions with a similar assessment for conventional internal combustion vehicles (ICVs). In this study, we have carried out an analysis for vehicles typical of those expected to be introduced in 2012 in Western Europe, the U.S. and China, taking into account the impact of three important factors: (a) like-forlike vehicle comparison and effect of real-world driving conditions, (b) accounting for the GHG emissions associated with meeting the additional electricity demand for charging the batteries, and (c) the GHG emissions associated with the vehicle life cycle (e.g. manufacture and disposal, etc). We find that BEVs can deliver significant GHG savings compared to ICVs providing that the grid GHG intensity used to charge the batteries is sufficiently low. In particular, BEVs perform best relative to ICVs in terms of GHG emissions in low speed (e.g. urban) driving and when lightly loaded with weight and auxiliaries. However, vehicle life cycle emissions are higher for BEVs than ICVs due to the GHG emissions associated with battery manufacture. Furthermore, our analysis illustrates that it is inappropriate to draw general conclusions about the relative GHG performance of BEVs and ICVs without due reference to the context - such relative performance

  2. The future of the European natural gas market: A quantitative assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguilera, Roberto F.

    2010-01-01

    The debate over the availability of conventional natural gas has been nearly as strong as that for conventional oil. In Europe, the debate is strengthened due to the region's dependence on natural gas from outside countries. In addition, concern has been expressed by some energy experts in recent years about an imminent shortage of natural gas from Europe, caused supposedly by dwindling natural gas resources. Thus, the purpose of this analysis is to address the concern by assessing the availability of natural gas in the region. This is done by estimating a cumulative availability curve showing natural gas endowment versus production costs. The findings indicate that natural gas in Europe is more available and economic than often assumed. Increased research and development of this potential could help increase energy security in the region. (author)

  3. Validating health impact assessment: Prediction is difficult (especially about the future)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petticrew, Mark; Cummins, Steven; Sparks, Leigh; Findlay, Anne

    2007-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) has been recommended as a means of estimating how policies, programmes and projects may impact on public health and on health inequalities. This paper considers the difference between predicting health impacts and measuring those impacts. It draws upon a case study of the building of a new hypermarket in a deprived area of Glasgow, which offered an opportunity to reflect on the issue of the predictive validity of HIA, and to consider the difference between potential and actual impacts. We found that the actual impacts of the new hypermarket on diet differed from that which would have been predicted based on previous studies. Furthermore, they challenge current received wisdom about the impact of food retail outlets in poorer areas. These results are relevant to the validity of HIA as a process and emphasise the importance of further research on the predictive validity of HIA, which should help improve its value to decision-makers

  4. A new approach for assessing the future of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, James J.; Whittemore, Donald O.; Wilson, Blake B.; Bohling, Geoffrey C.

    2016-03-01

    Aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture are under stress worldwide as a result of large pumping-induced water deficits. To aid in the formulation of more sustainable management plans for such systems, we have developed a water balance approach for assessing the impact of proposed management actions and the prospects for aquifer sustainability. Application to the High Plains aquifer (HPA) in the state of Kansas in the United States reveals that practically achievable reductions in annual pumping (determining the net inflow (capture) component of the water balance. The HPA is similar to many aquifers supporting critically needed agricultural production, so the presented approach should prove of value far beyond the area of this initial application.

  5. Assessing the quantum physics impacts on future x-ray free-electron lasers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmitt, Mark J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Anisimov, Petr Mikhaylovich [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-10-06

    A new quantum mechanical theory of x-ray free electron lasers (XFELs) has been successfully developed that has placed LANL at the forefront of the understanding of quantum effects in XFELs. Our quantum theory describes the interaction of relativistic electrons with x-ray radiation in the periodic magnetic field of an undulator using the same mathematical formalism as classical XFEL theory. This places classical and quantum treatments on the same footing and allows for a continuous transition from one regime to the other eliminating the disparate analytical approaches previously used. Moreover, Dr. Anisimov, the architect of this new theory, is now considered a resource in the international FEL community for assessing quantum effects in XFELs.

  6. Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Köberle, Alexandre C.; Gernaat, David E.H.J.; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2015-01-01

    CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and interdependencies. For present day, both CSP and PV supply curves start at $0.18/kWh, in North Africa, South America, and Australia. Applying accepted learning rates to official capacity targets, we project prices to drop to $0.11/kWh for both technologies by 2050. In an alternative “fast-learning” scenario, generation costs drop to $0.06–0.07/kWh for CSP, and $0.09/kWh for PV. Competition between them for best areas is explored along with sensitivities of their techno-economic potentials to land use restrictions and land cover type. CSP was found to be more competitive in desert sites with highest direct solar radiation. PV was a clear winner in humid tropical regions, and temperate northern hemisphere. Elsewhere, no clear winner emerged, highlighting the importance of competition in assessments of potentials. Our results show there is ample potential globally for both technologies even accounting for land use restrictions, but stronger support for RD&D and higher investments are needed to make CSP and PV cost-competitive with established power technologies by 2050. - Highlights: • A consistent assessment of global potential for CSP and PV, with cost-supply curves for 26 regions. • Combined global CSP and PV potential below US$0.35/kWh estimated at 135,128 TWh per year. • Competition for same land-based solar resource implies that potentials cannot be added. • Attractive areas are MENA, Northern Chile, Australia, China and Southwestern USA. • Costs are projected to go down over time, reaching US$0.06–0.11/KWh for attractive sites in 2050

  7. Future management of hazardous wastes generated at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York. Environmental assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-09-01

    This document assesses the potential environmental impacts of a variety of alternatives which could provide a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) permitted waste packaging and storage facility that would handle all hazardous, radioactive, and mixed wastes generated at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and would operate in full compliance with all federal, state, and local laws and regulations. Location of the existing Hazardous Waste Management Facility (HWMF) with respect to ground water and the site boundary, technical and capacity limitations, inadequate utilities, and required remediation of the area make the existing facility environmentally unacceptable for long term continued use. This Environmental Assessment (EA) describes the need for action by the Department of Energy (DOE). It evaluates the alternatives for fulfilling that need, including the alternative preferred by DOE, a no-action alternative, and other reasonable alternatives. The EA provides a general description of BNL and the existing environment at the current HWMF and alternative locations considered for a new Waste Management Facility (WMF). Finally, the EA describes the potential environmental impacts of the alternatives considered. The preferred alternative, also identified as Alternative D, would be to construct and operate a new WMF on land formerly occupied by barracks during Camp Upton operations, in an area north of Building 830 and the High Flux Beam Reactor/Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS) recharge basins, east of North Railroad Street, and south of East Fifth Avenue. The purpose of this new facility would be to move all storage and transfer activities inside buildings and on paved and curbed areas, consolidate facilities to improve operations management, and provide improved protection of the environment

  8. Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

    2016-12-01

    Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

  9. Planning for sustainable tourism in southern Pulau Banggi: an assessment of biophysical conditions and their implications for future tourism development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Lydia; Cabanban, Annadel S

    2007-12-01

    A priori assessments of a site's biophysical and socio-economic capacity for accommodating tourism are less common than tourism impact studies. A priori evaluations can provide a contextual understanding of ecological, economic and socio-cultural forces, which shape the prospects for sustainable tourism development at the host destination, and can avert adverse impacts of tourism. We conduct an a priori assessment of the biophysical environment of Pulau Banggi, in the Malaysian state of Sabah for sustainable tourism development. We characterise baseline conditions of the island's marine biodiversity, seasonality, and infrastructure. We then evaluate how existing biophysical conditions will influence options for sustainable tourism development. In particular, we suggest conditions, if there are any, which constitute a limit to future tourism development in terms of compatibility for recreation and resilience to visitor impacts. We find that the biggest constraint is the lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Blast fishing, although occurring less than once per hour, can potentially destroy the major attraction for tourists. We conclude that while Pulau Banggi possesses natural qualities that are attractive for ecotourism, financial and institutional support must be made available to provide facilities and services that will enable local participation in environmental protection and enhance prospects for future sustainable tourism.

  10. Effect assessment of Future Climate Change on Water Resource and Snow Quality in cold snowy regions in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniguchi, Y.; Nakatsugawa, M.; Kudo, K.

    2017-12-01

    It is predicted that the effects of global warming on everyday life will be clearly seen in cold, snowy regions such as Hokkaido. In relation to climate change, there is the concern that the warmer climate will affect not only water resources, but also local economies, in snowy areas, when air temperature increases and snowfall decreases become more marked in the future. Communities whose economies are greatly dependent on snow as a tourism resource, such as for winter sports and snow events, will lose large numbers of visitors because of the shortened winter season. This study was done as a basic study to provide basic ideas for planning adaptation strategies against climate change based on the local characteristics of a cold, snowy region. By taking dam catchment basins in Hokkaido as the subject areas and by using the climate change prediction data that correspond to IPCCAR5, the local-level influence of future climate change on snowfall and snow quality in relation to water resources and winter sports was quantitatively assessed. The water budget was examined for a dam catchment basin in Hokkaido under the present climate (September 1984 to August 2004) and under the future climate (September 2080 to August 2100) by using rainfall, snowfall and evapotranspiration estimated by the LoHAS heat and water balance analysis model.The examination found that, under the future climate, the net annual precipitation will decrease by up to 200 mm because of decreases in precipitation and in runoff height that will result from increased evapotranspiration. The predicted decrease in annual hydro potential of snowfall was considered to greatly affect the dam reservoir operation during the snowmelt season. The snow quality analysis by SNOWPACK revealed that the future snow would become granular earlier than it does at present. Most skiers' snow preferences, from best to worst, are light dry snow (i.e., fresh snow), lightly compacted snow, compacted snow and, finally, granular

  11. Anticipating the Future, Influencing the Present: Assessing the Societal Implications of Emerging Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelson, Evan S.

    informed by evidence from a range of sources, including document analysis, semi-structured interviews, and multiple media analyses. Finally, this study highlights a set of cross-cutting, transferable lessons that can be applied as future emerging technologies arise over time. The intention is that the insights gained from this study can help address these pressing issues as they rapidly unfold.

  12. The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, Christian; Hofer, Johannes; Althaus, Hans-Jörg; Del Duce, Andrea; Simons, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We perform Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of current and future passenger vehicles. • We include gasoline, diesel and natural gas as well as battery and fuel cell cars. • An integrated vehicle simulation framework guarantees consistency. • Only electric cars with “clean” electricity and H_2 allow for pollution mitigation. • Complete LCA is mandatory for environmental evaluation of vehicle technologies. - Abstract: This paper contains an evaluation of the environmental performance of a comprehensive set of current and future mid-size passenger vehicles. We present a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) based on a novel integrated vehicle simulation framework, which allows for consistency in vehicle parameter settings and consideration of future technological progress. Conventional and hybrid gasoline, diesel and natural gas cars as well as battery and fuel cell electric vehicles (BEV and FCV) are analyzed, taking into account electricity and hydrogen production chains from fossil, nuclear and renewable energy resources. Our results show that a substantial mitigation of climate change can be obtained with electric passenger vehicles, provided that non-fossil energy resources are used for electricity and hydrogen production. However, in terms of other environmental burdens such as acidification, particulate matter formation, and toxicity, BEV may in some cases and FCV are likely to perform worse than modern fossil fueled cars as a consequence of emissions along vehicle and fuel production chains. Therefore, the electrification of road transportation should be accompanied by an integration of life cycle management in vehicle manufacturing chains as well as energy and transport policies in order to counter potential environmental drawbacks.

  13. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  14. Outcome measures in spinal cord injury: recent assessments and recommendations for future directions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexander, M S; Anderson, K D; Biering-Sørensen, Fin

    2009-01-01

    Study design:Review by the spinal cord outcomes partnership endeavor (SCOPE), which is a broad-based international consortium of scientists and clinical researchers representing academic institutions, industry, government agencies, not-for-profit organizations and foundations. Objectives:Assessme......Study design:Review by the spinal cord outcomes partnership endeavor (SCOPE), which is a broad-based international consortium of scientists and clinical researchers representing academic institutions, industry, government agencies, not-for-profit organizations and foundations. Objectives......:Assessment of current and evolving tools for evaluating human spinal cord injury (SCI) outcomes for both clinical diagnosis and clinical research studies. Methods:a framework for the appraisal of evidence of metric properties was used to examine outcome tools or tests for accuracy, sensitivity, reliability and validity...... for human SCI. Results:Imaging, neurological, functional, autonomic, sexual health, bladder/bowel, pain and psychosocial tools were evaluated. Several specific tools for human SCI studies have or are being developed to allow the more accurate determination for a clinically meaningful benefit (improvement...

  15. Current legal regime for environmental impact assessment in areas beyond national jurisdiction and its future approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Deqiang; Fang, Qinhua; Guan, Song

    2016-01-01

    In 2004, the United Nations launched an Ad Hoc Open-ended Informal Working Group to study issues relating to the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction. Since then, the topic of governing marine areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) has been widely discussed by politicians, policy makers and scholars. As one of management tools to protect marine biodiversity in ABNJ, environmental impact assessment (EIA) has been widely recognized and accepted by the international community, however, the biggest challenge is how to effectively implement the EIA regime in ABNJ. This paper explores the impacts of anthropogenic activities in ABNJ on marine ecosystems, reviews the existing legal regime for EIA in ABNJ and discusses possible measures to strengthen the implementation of EIA in ABNJ. - Highlights: • We identify human activities in ABNJ and their impacts on marine ecosystems. • We analyze the characters and gaps of the existing legal regime for EIA in ABNJ. • We analyze the pros and cons of alternative approaches of EIA in ABNJ.

  16. Wind energy in Vietnam: Resource assessment, development status and future implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Khanh Q.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study is to estimate the technical potential of wind energy in Vietnam and discuss strategies for promoting the market penetration of wind energy in the country. For the wind resource assessment, a geographical information system (GIS)- assisted approach has been developed. It is found that Vietnam has a good potential for wind energy. About 31,000 km 2 of land area can be available for wind development in which 865 km 2 equivalents to a wind power of 3572 MW has a generation cost less than 6 US cents/kWh. The study also proves that wind energy could be a good solution for about 300,000 rural non-electrified households. While wind energy brings about ecological, economic and social benefits, it is only modestly exploited in Vietnam, where the main barrier is the lack of political impetus and a proper framework for promoting renewable energy. The priority task therefore is to set a target for renewable energy development and to find instruments to achieve such a target. The main instruments proposed here are setting feed-in tariff and providing investment incentives

  17. Current legal regime for environmental impact assessment in areas beyond national jurisdiction and its future approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Deqiang [Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Coastal Ecology and Environmental Studies, Xiamen University, 361102 (China); Coastal and Ocean Management Institute, Xiamen University, 361102 (China); Fang, Qinhua, E-mail: qhfang@xmu.edu.cn [Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Coastal Ecology and Environmental Studies, Xiamen University, 361102 (China); Coastal and Ocean Management Institute, Xiamen University, 361102 (China); Guan, Song [Coastal and Ocean Management Institute, Xiamen University, 361102 (China)

    2016-01-15

    In 2004, the United Nations launched an Ad Hoc Open-ended Informal Working Group to study issues relating to the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction. Since then, the topic of governing marine areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) has been widely discussed by politicians, policy makers and scholars. As one of management tools to protect marine biodiversity in ABNJ, environmental impact assessment (EIA) has been widely recognized and accepted by the international community, however, the biggest challenge is how to effectively implement the EIA regime in ABNJ. This paper explores the impacts of anthropogenic activities in ABNJ on marine ecosystems, reviews the existing legal regime for EIA in ABNJ and discusses possible measures to strengthen the implementation of EIA in ABNJ. - Highlights: • We identify human activities in ABNJ and their impacts on marine ecosystems. • We analyze the characters and gaps of the existing legal regime for EIA in ABNJ. • We analyze the pros and cons of alternative approaches of EIA in ABNJ.

  18. An Assessment of Aerocapture and Applications to Future Missions to Uranus and Neptune

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauchamp, P. M.; Spilker, T. R.

    2017-12-01

    Our investigation examined the current state of readiness of aerocapture at several destinations of interest, including Uranus and Neptune, to identify what technologies are needed, and to determine if a technology demonstration mission is required, prior to the first use of aerocapture for a science mission. The study team concluded that the current state of readiness is destination dependent, with aerocaptured missions feasible at Venus, Mars, and Titan with current technologies. The use of aerocapture for orbit insertion at the ice giant planets Uranus and Neptune requires at least additional study to assess the expected performance of new guidance, navigation, and control algorithms, and possible development of new hardware, such as a mid-L/D entry vehicle shape or new thermal protection system materials. A variety of near-term activities could contribute to risk reduction for missions proposing use of aerocapture, but a system-level technology demonstration mission is not deemed necessary before the use of aerocapture for a NASA science mission.

  19. Resident Self-Assessment and Learning Goal Development: Evaluation of Resident-Reported Competence and Future Goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Su-Ting T; Paterniti, Debora A; Tancredi, Daniel J; Burke, Ann E; Trimm, R Franklin; Guillot, Ann; Guralnick, Susan; Mahan, John D

    2015-01-01

    To determine incidence of learning goals by competency area and to assess which goals fall into competency areas with lower self-assessment scores. Cross-sectional analysis of existing deidentified American Academy of Pediatrics' PediaLink individualized learning plan data for the academic year 2009-2010. Residents self-assessed competencies in the 6 Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) competency areas and wrote learning goals. Textual responses for goals were mapped to 6 ACGME competency areas, future practice, or personal attributes. Adjusted mean differences and associations were estimated using multiple linear and logistic regression. A total of 2254 residents reported 6078 goals. Residents self-assessed their systems-based practice (51.8) and medical knowledge (53.0) competencies lowest and professionalism (68.9) and interpersonal and communication skills (62.2) highest. Residents were most likely to identify goals involving medical knowledge (70.5%) and patient care (50.5%) and least likely to write goals on systems-based practice (11.0%) and professionalism (6.9%). In logistic regression analysis adjusting for postgraduate year (PGY), gender, and degree type (MD/DO), resident-reported goal area showed no association with the learner's relative self-assessment score for that competency area. In the conditional logistic regression analysis, with each learner serving as his or her own control, senior residents (PGY2/3+s) who rated themselves relatively lower in a competency area were more likely to write a learning goal in that area than were PGY1s. Senior residents appear to develop better skills and/or motivation to explicitly turn self-assessed learning gaps into learning goals, suggesting that individualized learning plans may help improve self-regulated learning during residency. Copyright © 2015 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Current status and future prospects for the assessment of marine and coastal ecosystem services: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Drakou, Evangelia G; Gurney, Leigh; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Charef, Aymen; Egoh, Benis

    2013-01-01

    Research on ecosystem services has grown exponentially during the last decade. Most of the studies have focused on assessing and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services highlighting a knowledge gap on marine and coastal ecosystem services (MCES) and an urgent need to assess them. We reviewed and summarized existing scientific literature related to MCES with the aim of extracting and classifying indicators used to assess and map them. We found 145 papers that specifically assessed marine and coastal ecosystem services from which we extracted 476 indicators. Food provision, in particular fisheries, was the most extensively analyzed MCES while water purification and coastal protection were the most frequently studied regulating and maintenance services. Also recreation and tourism under the cultural services was relatively well assessed. We highlight knowledge gaps regarding the availability of indicators that measure the capacity, flow or benefit derived from each ecosystem service. The majority of the case studies was found in mangroves and coastal wetlands and was mainly concentrated in Europe and North America. Our systematic review highlighted the need of an improved ecosystem service classification for marine and coastal systems, which is herein proposed with definitions and links to previous classifications. This review summarizes the state of available information related to ecosystem services associated with marine and coastal ecosystems. The cataloging of MCES indicators and the integrated classification of MCES provided in this paper establish a background that can facilitate the planning and integration of future assessments. The final goal is to establish a consistent structure and populate it with information able to support the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies.

  1. Current Status and Future Prospects for the Assessment of Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Services: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Drakou, Evangelia G.; Gurney, Leigh; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Charef, Aymen; Egoh, Benis

    2013-01-01

    Background Research on ecosystem services has grown exponentially during the last decade. Most of the studies have focused on assessing and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services highlighting a knowledge gap on marine and coastal ecosystem services (MCES) and an urgent need to assess them. Methodology/Principal Findings We reviewed and summarized existing scientific literature related to MCES with the aim of extracting and classifying indicators used to assess and map them. We found 145 papers that specifically assessed marine and coastal ecosystem services from which we extracted 476 indicators. Food provision, in particular fisheries, was the most extensively analyzed MCES while water purification and coastal protection were the most frequently studied regulating and maintenance services. Also recreation and tourism under the cultural services was relatively well assessed. We highlight knowledge gaps regarding the availability of indicators that measure the capacity, flow or benefit derived from each ecosystem service. The majority of the case studies was found in mangroves and coastal wetlands and was mainly concentrated in Europe and North America. Our systematic review highlighted the need of an improved ecosystem service classification for marine and coastal systems, which is herein proposed with definitions and links to previous classifications. Conclusions/Significance This review summarizes the state of available information related to ecosystem services associated with marine and coastal ecosystems. The cataloging of MCES indicators and the integrated classification of MCES provided in this paper establish a background that can facilitate the planning and integration of future assessments. The final goal is to establish a consistent structure and populate it with information able to support the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies. PMID:23844080

  2. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  3. Health technology assessment and its role in the future development of the Indian healthcare sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hass, Bastian; Pooley, Jayne; Feuring, Martin; Suvarna, Viraj; Harrington, Adrian E

    2012-04-01

    Public expenditure on healthcare in India is low by international comparison, and access to essential treatment pushes many uninsured citizens below the poverty line. In many countries, policymakers utilize health technology assessment (HTA) methodologies to direct investments in healthcare, to obtain the maximum benefit for the population as a whole. With rising incomes and a commitment from the Government of India to increase the proportion of gross domestic product spent on health, this is an opportune moment to consider how HTA might help to allocate healthcare spending in India, in an equitable and efficient manner. Despite the predominance of out-of-pocket payments in the Indian healthcare sector, payers of all types are increasingly demanding value for money from expenditure on healthcare. In this review we demonstrate how HTA can be used to inform several aspects of healthcare provision. Areas in which HTA could be applied in the Indian context include, drug pricing, development of clinical practice guidelines, and prioritizing interventions that represent the greatest value within a limited budget. To illustrate the potential benefits of using the HTA approach, we present an example from a mature HTA market (Canada) that demonstrates how a new treatment for patients with atrial fibrillation - although more expensive than the current standard of care - improves clinical outcomes and represents a cost-effective use of public health resources. If aligned with the prevailing cultural and ethical considerations, and with the necessary investment in expert staff and resources, HTA promises to be a valuable tool for development of the Indian healthcare sector.

  4. An Observation-based Assessment of Instrument Requirements for a Future Precipitation Process Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, E.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Wood, N.; Smalley, M.; Kulie, M.; Hahn, W.

    2017-12-01

    Global models exhibit substantial biases in the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial scales of precipitation systems. Much of this uncertainty stems from an inadequate representation of the processes by which water is cycled between the surface and atmosphere and, in particular, those that govern the formation and maintenance of cloud systems and their propensity to form the precipitation. Progress toward improving precipitation process models requires observing systems capable of quantifying the coupling between the ice content, vertical mass fluxes, and precipitation yield of precipitating cloud systems. Spaceborne multi-frequency, Doppler radar offers a unique opportunity to address this need but the effectiveness of such a mission is heavily dependent on its ability to actually observe the processes of interest in the widest possible range of systems. Planning for a next generation precipitation process observing system should, therefore, start with a fundamental evaluation of the trade-offs between sensitivity, resolution, sampling, cost, and the overall potential scientific yield of the mission. Here we provide an initial assessment of the scientific and economic trade-space by evaluating hypothetical spaceborne multi-frequency radars using a combination of current real-world and model-derived synthetic observations. Specifically, we alter the field of view, vertical resolution, and sensitivity of a hypothetical Ka- and W-band radar system and propagate those changes through precipitation detection and intensity retrievals. The results suggest that sampling biases introduced by reducing sensitivity disproportionately affect the light rainfall and frozen precipitation regimes that are critical for warm cloud feedbacks and ice sheet mass balance, respectively. Coarser spatial resolution observations introduce regime-dependent biases in both precipitation occurrence and intensity that depend on cloud regime, with even the sign of the bias varying within a

  5. Health technology assessment and its role in the future development of the Indian healthcare sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bastian Hass

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Public expenditure on healthcare in India is low by international comparison, and access to essential treatment pushes many uninsured citizens below the poverty line. In many countries, policymakers utilize health technology assessment (HTA methodologies to direct investments in healthcare, to obtain the maximum benefit for the population as a whole. With rising incomes and a commitment from the Government of India to increase the proportion of gross domestic product spent on health, this is an opportune moment to consider how HTA might help to allocate healthcare spending in India, in an equitable and efficient manner. Despite the predominance of out-of-pocket payments in the Indian healthcare sector, payers of all types are increasingly demanding value for money from expenditure on healthcare. In this review we demonstrate how HTA can be used to inform several aspects of healthcare provision. Areas in which HTA could be applied in the Indian context include, drug pricing, development of clinical practice guidelines, and prioritizing interventions that represent the greatest value within a limited budget. To illustrate the potential benefits of using the HTA approach, we present an example from a mature HTA market (Canada that demonstrates how a new treatment for patients with atrial fibrillation - although more expensive than the current standard of care - improves clinical outcomes and represents a cost-effective use of public health resources. If aligned with the prevailing cultural and ethical considerations, and with the necessary investment in expert staff and resources, HTA promises to be a valuable tool for development of the Indian healthcare sector.

  6. Environmental & economic life cycle assessment of current & future sewage sludge to energy technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, N; Pearce, P; Farrow, J; Thorpe, R B; Kirkby, N F

    2014-01-01

    The UK Water Industry currently generates approximately 800GWh pa of electrical energy from sewage sludge. Traditionally energy recovery from sewage sludge features Anaerobic Digestion (AD) with biogas utilisation in combined heat and power (CHP) systems. However, the industry is evolving and a number of developments that extract more energy from sludge are either being implemented or are nearing full scale demonstration. This study compared five technology configurations: 1 - conventional AD with CHP, 2 - Thermal Hydrolysis Process (THP) AD with CHP, 3 - THP AD with bio-methane grid injection, 4 - THP AD with CHP followed by drying of digested sludge for solid fuel production, 5 - THP AD followed by drying, pyrolysis of the digested sludge and use of the both the biogas and the pyrolysis gas in a CHP. The economic and environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) found that both the post AD drying options performed well but the option used to create a solid fuel to displace coal (configuration 4) was the most sustainable solution economically and environmentally, closely followed by the pyrolysis configuration (5). Application of THP improves the financial and environmental performance compared with conventional AD. Producing bio-methane for grid injection (configuration 3) is attractive financially but has the worst environmental impact of all the scenarios, suggesting that the current UK financial incentive policy for bio-methane is not driving best environmental practice. It is clear that new and improving processes and technologies are enabling significant opportunities for further energy recovery from sludge; LCA provides tools for determining the best overall options for particular situations and allows innovation resources and investment to be focused accordingly. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

    2001-07-01

    With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

  8. Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

    2001-01-01

    With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

  9. In search of future earths: assessing the possibility of finding Earth analogues in the later stages of their habitable lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley-James, Jack T; Greaves, Jane S; Raven, John A; Cockell, Charles S

    2015-05-01

    Earth will become uninhabitable within 2-3 Gyr as a result of the increasing luminosity of the Sun changing the boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ). Predictions about the future of habitable conditions on Earth include declining species diversity and habitat extent, ocean loss, and changes to geochemical cycles. Testing these predictions is difficult, but the discovery of a planet that is an analogue to future Earth could provide the means to test them. This planet would need to have an Earth-like biosphere history and to be approaching the inner edge of the HZ at present. Here, we assess the possibility of finding such a planet and discuss the benefits of analyzing older Earths. Finding an old-Earth analogue in nearby star systems would be ideal, because this would allow for atmospheric characterization. Hence, as an illustrative example, G stars within 10 pc of the Sun are assessed as potential old-Earth-analog hosts. Six of these represent good potential hosts. For each system, a hypothetical Earth analogue is placed at locations within the continuously habitable zone (CHZ) that would allow enough time for Earth-like biosphere development. Surface temperature evolution over the host star's main sequence lifetime (assessed by using a simple climate model) is used to determine whether the planet would be in the right stage of its late-habitable lifetime to exhibit detectable biosignatures. The best candidate, in terms of the chances of planet formation in the CHZ and of biosignature detection, is 61 Virginis. However, planet formation studies suggest that only a small fraction (0.36%) of G stars in the solar neighborhood could host an old-Earth analogue. If the development of Earth-like biospheres is rare, requiring a sequence of low-probability events to occur, biosphere evolution models suggest they are rarer still, with only thousands being present in the Galaxy as a whole.

  10. Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

    2018-02-01

    Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

  11. A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

    1998-01-01

    Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

  12. The Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation after 55 years: assessing past, present and future developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzer, Stefan; Araguas-Araguas, Luis; Wassenaar, Leonard I.; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.

    2015-04-01

    regionalized cluster-based water isotope prediction model (RCWIP) which uses fuzzy clustering to delineate regions of climatic similarity, and to determine regionalized regression models for each climatic cluster in order to lower prediction uncertainty of isotope values. Here, we present new data and figures on the spatial and temporal evolution of the GNIP network, including station spatial density and coverage analysis. Moreover, we assess outstanding deficits in the spatial coverage of the GNIP network by applying the clustering structure of the RCWIP approach to identify those regions which would benefit most from an improved GNIP sampling. Finally, we present an updated global meteoric water (GMWL) line based on different calculation methods (ordinary least squares method, weighted least squares, or based on weighted means).

  13. Bilio-entero-gastrostomy: prospective assessment of a modified biliary reconstruction with facilitated future endoscopic access

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamad Mostafa A

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hepaticojejunostomy (HJ is the classical reconstruction for benign biliary stricture. Endoscopic management of anastomotic complications after hepaticojejunostomy is extremely difficult. In this work we assess a modified biliary reconstruction in the form of bilio-entero-gastrostomy (BEG regarding the feasibility of endoscopic access to HJ and management of its stenosis if encountered. Methods From October 2008 till February 2011 all patients presented to the authors with benign biliary stricture who needed bilio-enteric shunt were considered. For each patient bilio-entero-gastrostomy (BEG of either type I, II or III was constructed. In the fourth week postoperatively, endoscopy was performed to explore the possibility to access the biliary anastomosis and perform cholangiography. Results BEG shunt was performed for seventeen patients, one of whom, with BEG type I, died due to myocardial infarction leaving sixteen patients with a diagnosis of postcholecystectomy biliary injury (9, inflammatory stricture with or without choledocholithiasis (5 and strictured biliary shunt (2. BEG shunts were either type I (3, type II (3 or type III (10. Endoscopic follow up revealed successful access to the anastomosis in 14 patients (87.5%, while the access failed in one type I and one type II BEG (12.5%. Mean time needed to access the anastomosis was 12.6 min (2-55 min. On a scale from 1–5, mean endoscopic difficulty score was 1.7. One patient (6.25%, with BEG type I, developed anastomotic stricture after 18 months that was successfully treated endoscopically by stenting. These preliminary results showed that, in relation to the other types, type III BEG demonstrated the tendency to be surgically simpler to perform, endoscopicall faster to access, easier and with no failure. Conclusions BEG, which is a modified biliary reconstruction, facilitates endoscopic access of the biliary anastomosis, offers management option for its

  14. Assessment of the Future Health Burden Attributable to Undernutrition under the Latest Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-05-01

    There are growing concerns that future food security will be negatively affected by various factors, such as changes in socioeconomic and climate conditions. The health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition is among the most severe problems related to food crisis in the world. This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. We used three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) as future population and gross domestic products (GDP), three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and 12 Global Circulation Models (12 GCMs) to estimate climate conditions. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. A logarithmic relationship was proposed for the regression model. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model (M-GAEZ), and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 23 ~ 60% in 2030 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. DAtU decreases further by 2050 for SSP1 and SSP2 scenario, whereas it slightly increases for SSP3. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. ii) the impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. The impact of changes in socioeconomic conditions on the health burden is greater in the regions where current health burden is high. iii) parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on

  15. Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

  16. Actuarial assessment of future loss scenarios in the German insurance sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubik, A.; Boehm, U.; Born, K.; Broecker, U.; Buechner, M.; Burghoff, O.; Donat, M.; Gerstengarbe, F. W.; Hattermann, F. F.; Held, H.; Kuecken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ludwig, P.; Nocke, T.; Oesterle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Pinto, J. G.; Prahl, B. F.; Ulbrich, U.; Werner, P. C.

    2012-04-01

    adapt to climate change. For this purpose stakeholder usually need ascertained numbers. Because our results were achieved using ensemble techniques they display per se a considerable spread. Despite this fact our results are robust over all approaches and climate models. Therefore they can be used for strategic decisions, less for daily routine business. Higher and more frequent losses will require higher venture capital and must be taken into account when implementing the EU directive Solvency II. If we assess our results carefully and act farseeing, we will be able to draw from manifold activities to deal with climate change impacts. Smart portfolio policy can help to reduce risks. Working with limits and franchises can help to insure highly exposed risks. Therefore GDV offers to his member companies wide accepted tools and risk models such as ZÜRS Geo, HQ Kumul and detailed risk statistics. After all, well-directed information policy, increased risk awareness and preventive action can reduce climate change impacts significantly.

  17. Biocatalyzed processes for production of commodity chemicals: Assessment of future research advances for N-butanol production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingham, J. D.

    1984-01-01

    This report is a summary of assessments by Chem Systems Inc. and a further evaluation of the impacts of research advances on energy efficiency and the potential for future industrial production of acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) solvents and other products by biocatalyzed processes. Brief discussions of each of the assessments made by CSI, followed by estimates of minimum projected energy consumption and costs for production of solvents by ABE biocatalyzed processes are included. These assessments and further advances discussed in this report show that substantial decreases in energy consumption and costs are possible on the basis of specific research advances; therefore, it appears that a biocatalyzed process for ABE can be developed that will be competitive with conventional petrochemical processes for production of n-butanol and acetone. (In this work, the ABE process was selected and utilized only as an example for methodology development; other possible bioprocesses for production of commodity chemicals are not intended to be excluded.) It has been estimated that process energy consumption can be decreased by 50%, with a corresponding cost reduction of 15-30% (in comparison with a conventional petrochemical process) by increasing microorganism tolerance to n-butanol and efficient recovery of product solvents from the vapor phase.

  18. Gap-prepulse inhibition of the startle reflex (GPIAS for tinnitus assessment: current status and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander eGalazyuk

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The progress in the field of tinnitus largely depends on the development of a reliable tinnitus animal model. Recently a new method based on the acoustic startle reflex modification was introduced for tinnitus screening in laboratory animals. This method was enthusiastically adopted and now widely used by many scientists in the field due to its seeming simplicity and a number of advantages over the other methods of tinnitus assessment. Furthermore, this method opened an opportunity for tinnitus assessment in humans as well. Unfortunately multiple modifications of data collection and interpretation implemented in different labs make comparisons across studies very difficult. In addition, recent animal and human studies have challenged the original filling-in interpretation of the paradigm. Here we review the current literature to emphasize on the commonalities and differences in data collection and interpretation across laboratories that are using this method for tinnitus assessment. We also propose future research directions that could be taken in order to establish whether or not this method is warranted as an indicator of the presence of tinnitus.

  19. The Future of Risk Analysis: Operationalizing Living Vulnerability Assessments from the Cloud to the Street (and Back)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.; Kuhn, C.; Pandey, B.; Schank, C.; Sullivan, J.; Mahtta, R.; Hammet, L.

    2016-12-01

    21 million people are exposed to flooding every year, and that number is expected to more than double by 2030 due to climate, land use, and demographic change. Cloud to Street, a mission driven science organization, is working to make big and real time data more meaningful to understand both biophysical and social vulnerability to flooding in this changing world. This talk will showcase the science and practice we have built of integrated social and biophysical flood vulnerability assessments based on our work in Uttarakhand, India and Senegal, in conjunction with nonprofits and development banks. We will show developments of our global historical flood database, detected from MODIS and Landsat satellites, used to power machine learning flood exposure models in Google Earth Engine's API. Demonstrating the approach, we will also showcase new approaches in social vulnerability science, from developing data-driven social vulnerability indices in India, to deriving predictive models that explain the social conditions that lead to disproportionate flood damage and fatality in the US. While this talk will draw on examples of completed vulnerability assessments, we will also discuss the possible future for place-based "living" flood vulnerability assessments that are updated each time satellites circle the earth or people add crowd-sourced observations about flood events and social conditions.

  20. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    , Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K, Bois FY, Burgoon LD, Chiu WA, Crawford-Brown D, Crofton KM, DeVito M, Devlin RB, Edwards SW, Guyton KZ, Hattis D, Judson RS, Knight D, Krewski D, Lambert J, Maull EA, Mendrick D, Paoli GM, Patel CJ, Perkins EJ, Poje G, Portier CJ, Rusyn I, Schulte PA, Simeonov A, Smith MT, Thayer KA, Thomas RS, Thomas R, Tice RR, Vandenberg JJ, Villeneuve DL, Wesselkamper S, Whelan M, Whittaker C, White R, Xia M, Yauk C, Zeise L, Zhao J, DeWoskin RS. 2016. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment multiyear study—highlights of findings, applications to risk assessment, and future directions. Environ Health Perspect 124:1671–1682; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP233 PMID:27091369

  1. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helge Walentowski

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

  2. Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Sizo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

  3. Life cycle assessment of renewables: present issues, future outlook and implications for the calculation of external costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frankl, P.

    2002-01-01

    In principle, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is certainly appropriate for estimating external costs of renewables, since major environmental impacts of the latter are generated in phases of the life cycle other than use. In practice however, several issues still remain. They are related to the availability and quality of Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) data, to the frit technological development of renewable energy technologies (RET), to the existence of many different applications of the latter and to a strong dependency on local conditions. Moreover, a 'static' picture of present technologies is not enough for policy indications. Therefore some kind of dynamic LCA is needed. These LCA issues are reflected in the calculation of external costs. First, the paper discusses these issues on the examples of two main technologies, namely photovoltaic (PV) and wind. Second, it discusses the results of ExternE for these two specific technologies and gives an outlook for the future. Future needs for a better use of LCA as a support tool for the calcination of external costs are identified. Finally, a new research project funded by the European Commission focused on LCI of renewables is briefly introduced and presented. (author)

  4. Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2017-12-01

    Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

  5. Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

  6. A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniguchi, Kenji

    2018-04-01

    To investigate future variations in high-impact weather events, numerous samples are required. For the detailed assessment in a specific region, a high spatial resolution is also required. A simple ensemble simulation technique is proposed in this paper. In the proposed technique, new ensemble members were generated from one basic state vector and two perturbation vectors, which were obtained by lagged average forecasting simulations. Sensitivity experiments with different numbers of ensemble members, different simulation lengths, and different perturbation magnitudes were performed. Experimental application to a global warming study was also implemented for a typhoon event. Ensemble-mean results and ensemble spreads of total precipitation, atmospheric conditions showed similar characteristics across the sensitivity experiments. The frequencies of the maximum total and hourly precipitation also showed similar distributions. These results indicate the robustness of the proposed technique. On the other hand, considerable ensemble spread was found in each ensemble experiment. In addition, the results of the application to a global warming study showed possible variations in the future. These results indicate that the proposed technique is useful for investigating various meteorological phenomena and the impacts of global warming. The results of the ensemble simulations also enable the stochastic evaluation of differences in high-impact weather events. In addition, the impacts of a spectral nudging technique were also examined. The tracks of a typhoon were quite different between cases with and without spectral nudging; however, the ranges of the tracks among ensemble members were comparable. It indicates that spectral nudging does not necessarily suppress ensemble spread.

  7. Was Pharmacy Their Preferred Choice? Assessing Pharmacy Students’ Motivation to Study Pharmacy, Attitudes and Future Career Intentions in Sierra Leone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Bai James

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: There is a dearth of skilled pharmaceutical workforce in the African region, and this is partly due to a limited number of prospective students entering the profession. An understanding of the factors that influence the choice of pharmacy as a career is needed to attract highly motivated and skilled individuals into the profession. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess pharmacy students’ motivation to study pharmacy, their attitude and future career intentions in Sierra Leone. Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey of undergraduate pharmacy students enrolled at the College of Medicine, and Allied Health Sciences, University of Sierra Leone (COMAHS – USL was carried out between May and June 2015. Descriptive statistics, as well as chi-square and Fisher exact two-tailed tests were used to analyze the data. Results: Close to a quarter (24.3% of pharmacy students surveyed chose pharmacy as their preferred major. The choice of pharmacy as a preferred major was common among first-year students, (p=0.001, those who were married (p<0.001 and have had pharmacy practice experience (p<0.001. Motivation for choosing pharmacy was assessed based on three domains (education, personal and career-related factors.Students cited a subject teacher at school ̸ College (66.7% as the most education-related influence, while friends and family members (61.1% was the major personal-related factor. Also, students considered the desire for self-employment in a healthcare related job (27.8%, and excellent career opportunities (27.8% as the major career-related factors that influenced their choice of pharmacy as a preferred major. Medicine was the first choice of study among the majority (95% of students that chose pharmacy as a second choice when seeking admission into the university. Pharmacy students demonstrated a positive attitude toward the profession, and considered drug manufacturing (47.3% and hospital pharmacy (43

  8. Trade-offs in assessing different energy futures: a regional multi-criteria assessment of the role of carbon dioxide capture and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shackley, Simon; McLachlan, Carly

    2006-01-01

    We examine the responses of stakeholders from the public and private sectors to future energy scenarios for the year 2050 for the North West of England. The main focus of the paper is to examine the stakeholders' reactions to the mitigation option of capturing CO 2 from power stations and storing it in suitable off-shore geological reservoirs. Five energy scenarios were developed which involved a range of levels of CO 2 capture and storage (CCS): Fossilwise, Nuclear Renaissance, Renewable Generation and Spreading the Load high and low scenarios. A multi-criteria assessment method (MCA) was used as a way of elucidating stakeholders' views on the desirability or otherwise of each scenario against nine stakeholder-derived criteria. We found that stakeholders were either business-focused or environment/society-focused with respect to weighting of the criteria. Scoring of the scenarios did not follow such a straightforward pattern. Most respondents scored and weighted strategically and tended to express a clear preference for a form of energy generation. The results suggest that there is unlikely to be a wide-ranging consensus amongst energy stakeholders on the desirability of specific future forms of energy generation. On balance, the results support the inclusion of CCS within scenarios of a low-carbon energy system

  9. Assessing Land Degradation and Desertification Using Vegetation Index Data: Current Frameworks and Future Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas P. Higginbottom

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Land degradation and desertification has been ranked as a major environmental and social issue for the coming decades. Thus, the observation and early detection of degradation is a primary objective for a number of scientific and policy organisations, with remote sensing methods being a candidate choice for the development of monitoring systems. This paper reviews the statistical and ecological frameworks of assessing land degradation and desertification using vegetation index data. The development of multi-temporal analysis as a desertification assessment technique is reviewed, with a focus on how current practice has been shaped by controversy and dispute within the literature. The statistical techniques commonly employed are examined from both a statistical as well as ecological point of view, and recommendations are made for future research directions. The scientific requirements for degradation and desertification monitoring systems identified here are: (I the validation of methodologies in a robust and comparable manner; and (II the detection of degradation at minor intensities and magnitudes. It is also established that the multi-temporal analysis of vegetation index data can provide a sophisticated measure of ecosystem health and variation, and that, over the last 30 years, considerable progress has been made in the respective research.

  10. Assessment of future agricultural conditions in southwestern Africa using fuzzy logic and high-resolution climate model scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weinzierl, Thomas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have a major impact on the arid savanna regions of southwestern Africa, such as the Okavango Basin. Precipitation is a major constraint for agriculture in countries like Namibia and Botswana and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach uses reanalysis data and climate model output for two scenarios and compares them to the precipitation requirements of the five most important crops grown in the region: maize, pearl millet, sorghum, cassava and cow pea. It also takes into account the dominant soil types, as plant growth is also limited by nutrient-poor soils with unfavorable physical and chemical properties. The two factors are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable zones and identifies areas where farming without irrigation may experience a decline in yields or may even no longer be possible at the end of the 21st century. The results show that pearl millet is the most suitable crop in all scenarios while especially the cultivation of maize, sorghum and cow pea may be affected by a possible reduction of precipitation under the high-emission scenario.

  11. Assessment of the present and future implications of radioactive contamination of the Irish Sea coastal region of Cumbria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkins, B.T.; Simmonds, J.R.; Cooper, J.R.

    1994-10-01

    An assessment has been made of the doses that could be received by people who make use of the Cumbrian coastal area. Current doses have been estimated for residents and visitors to different parts of the area. By making assumptions about changes in waste management practices at the BNFL Sellafield plant and in the geography of the coastal area, the development of doses over the next 200 years has been assessed. The study was confined to exposure pathways in the terrestrial environment, although the influence of liquid discharges on terrestrial pathways was taken into account. Consumption of marine foodstuffs was outside the scope of the study. As expected, the highest doses would be received by those people who live closest to Sellafield. However, in all cases doses to average individuals were well below the present limit for members of the public specified by ICRP. The general future trend was for doses to decline. Doses were also estimated for particular population groups such as those who spend more time on beaches. While the resultant values were higher than those for average individuals, they were still well within the ICRP limit in all cases. (author)

  12. Use of Ground Motion Simulations of a Historical Earthquake for the Assessment of Past and Future Urban Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kentel, E.; Çelik, A.; karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.

    2017-12-01

    Erzincan city located in the Eastern part of Turkey at the conjunction of three active faults is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. In addition to several historical events, this city has experienced one of the largest earthquakes during the last century: The 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) event. With limited knowledge of the tectonic structure by then, the city center was relocated to the North after the 1939 earthquake by almost 5km, indeed closer to the existing major strike slip fault. This decision coupled with poor construction technologies, led to severe damage during a later event that occurred on 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6). The 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms whereas the 1992 event was only recorded by 3 nearby stations. There are empirical isoseismal maps from both events indicating indirectly the spatial distribution of the damage. In this study, we focus on this region and present a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the different components of uncertainties involved in the assessment and mitigation of seismic risk in urban areas. For this initial attempt, ground motion simulation of the 1939 event is performed to obtain the anticipated ground motions and shaking intensities. Using these quantified results along with the spatial distribution of the observed damage, the relocation decision is assessed and suggestions are provided for future large earthquakes to minimize potential earthquake risks.

  13. Organization and methodology approach for the safety assessment of the present situation and the future works on Chernobyl-4 and the site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bachner, D.; Benoist, E.; Duco, J.; Jahns, A.

    1995-01-01

    This work deals with the organization and methodology approach for the safety assessment of the present situation and the future works on Chernobyl 4 and the site. It presents the results of a common preliminary discussion in order to formulate advices on the basic management of the Chernobyl safety assessment process. (O.L.)

  14. Risk assessment analysis of the future technical unit dedicated to the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R

    2011-03-01

    The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  15. The role of minimum supply and social vulnerability assessment for governing critical infrastructure failure: current gaps and future agenda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Garschagen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Increased attention has lately been given to the resilience of critical infrastructure in the context of natural hazards and disasters. The major focus therein is on the sensitivity of critical infrastructure technologies and their management contingencies. However, strikingly little attention has been given to assessing and mitigating social vulnerabilities towards the failure of critical infrastructure and to the development, design and implementation of minimum supply standards in situations of major infrastructure failure. Addressing this gap and contributing to a more integrative perspective on critical infrastructure resilience is the objective of this paper. It asks which role social vulnerability assessments and minimum supply considerations can, should and do – or do not – play for the management and governance of critical infrastructure failure. In its first part, the paper provides a structured review on achievements and remaining gaps in the management of critical infrastructure and the understanding of social vulnerabilities towards disaster-related infrastructure failures. Special attention is given to the current state of minimum supply concepts with a regional focus on policies in Germany and the EU. In its second part, the paper then responds to the identified gaps by developing a heuristic model on the linkages of critical infrastructure management, social vulnerability and minimum supply. This framework helps to inform a vision of a future research agenda, which is presented in the paper's third part. Overall, the analysis suggests that the assessment of socially differentiated vulnerabilities towards critical infrastructure failure needs to be undertaken more stringently to inform the scientifically and politically difficult debate about minimum supply standards and the shared responsibilities for securing them.

  16. The role of minimum supply and social vulnerability assessment for governing critical infrastructure failure: current gaps and future agenda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garschagen, Matthias; Sandholz, Simone

    2018-04-01

    Increased attention has lately been given to the resilience of critical infrastructure in the context of natural hazards and disasters. The major focus therein is on the sensitivity of critical infrastructure technologies and their management contingencies. However, strikingly little attention has been given to assessing and mitigating social vulnerabilities towards the failure of critical infrastructure and to the development, design and implementation of minimum supply standards in situations of major infrastructure failure. Addressing this gap and contributing to a more integrative perspective on critical infrastructure resilience is the objective of this paper. It asks which role social vulnerability assessments and minimum supply considerations can, should and do - or do not - play for the management and governance of critical infrastructure failure. In its first part, the paper provides a structured review on achievements and remaining gaps in the management of critical infrastructure and the understanding of social vulnerabilities towards disaster-related infrastructure failures. Special attention is given to the current state of minimum supply concepts with a regional focus on policies in Germany and the EU. In its second part, the paper then responds to the identified gaps by developing a heuristic model on the linkages of critical infrastructure management, social vulnerability and minimum supply. This framework helps to inform a vision of a future research agenda, which is presented in the paper's third part. Overall, the analysis suggests that the assessment of socially differentiated vulnerabilities towards critical infrastructure failure needs to be undertaken more stringently to inform the scientifically and politically difficult debate about minimum supply standards and the shared responsibilities for securing them.

  17. The Armored Brigade Combat Team (ABCT) in the Future: An Assessment of Capabilities Against the Hybrid Threat in the Future Operational Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-13

    requirements, followed by a tactical case study assessment, and a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats ( SWOT ) analysis of the BCTs against a...strategic and operational deployment. This information further developed the case study SWOT analysis of the BCTs against a hybrid threat. The SWOT ...a SWOT analysis . The next section addressed is the analysis . The analysis is comprised of the strategic capabilities assessment and the tactical

  18. Assessing the economic impact of Rx-to-OTC switches: systematic review and guidelines for future development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, J; Millier, A; Karray, S; Toumi, M

    2013-01-01

    Switching drugs from prescription to non-prescription status (Rx-to-OTC) presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities to policy-makers and the industry in terms of managing health outcomes, pharmaceutical spending, and steering of consumer choices of therapy. Decision-analytic models are used to address uncertainty and produce reasonable estimates of the economic impact of switches for payers. This article presents a critical literature review of existing models which assess the economic impact of Rx-to-OTC switches, and provides guidelines in which future economic evaluations of Rx-to-OTC switches could be improved. A comprehensive search strategy was implemented in Medline and Embase, to retrieve published economic evaluations on Rx-to-OTC switches from 1995-2010. The research digest of the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) was reviewed for potentially relevant abstracts for the past 3 years. Each model used was critically evaluated in terms of structure, relevance of inputs, methodology used, and robustness of results. Worldwide, the economic impact of Rx-to-OTC switches has only been evaluated in a total of 12 peer-reviewed publications. Ten out of 12 studies were US-based, and two European-based. The models covered various disease categories, including allergy, hypercholesterolemia, gastroenterology, contraception, pulmonology, and virology. Seventy-five per cent of the models predicted cost savings for payers and patients. Limitations of the models mainly included use of strong assumptions and non-inclusion of specific populations due to lack of data. Guidelines were developed to help future model development. They cover structural issues on decision context, health states, and clinical outcomes, and other considerations for model specifications. Although reviewed studies lacked quality, this review of economic evidence of Rx-to-OTC switches suggests that switches may produce cost savings to public and private

  19. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  20. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  1. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Neumann

    Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

  2. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fuchs

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country, plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30–100 m remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems. Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as

  3. Modeling and assessment of future IGCC plant concepts with CO{sub 2} capture; Simulation und Bewertung zukuenftiger IGCC-Kraftwerkskonzepte mit CO{sub 2}-Abtrennung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunze, Christian A.

    2012-07-13

    The thesis focuses on the assessment of efficiency potential of future IGCC plants with CO{sub 2} capture. Starting point is a comprehensive analysis (thermodynamic, economic and exergy) of a state of the art IGCC. Additionally, five future IGCC concepts are proposed and evaluated for their efficiency potential in the mid- and long-term. The concepts showed significantly higher efficiencies up to approximately 60% and enable an almost CO{sub 2}-free operation.

  4. Accuracy of a Low-Cost Novel Computer-Vision Dynamic Movement Assessment: Potential Limitations and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGroarty, M.; Giblin, S.; Meldrum, D.; Wetterling, F.

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to perform a preliminary validation of a low cost markerless motion capture system (CAPTURE) against an industry gold standard (Vicon). Measurements of knee valgus and flexion during the performance of a countermovement jump (CMJ) between CAPTURE and Vicon were compared. After correction algorithms were applied to the raw CAPTURE data acceptable levels of accuracy and precision were achieved. The knee flexion angle measured for three trials using Capture deviated by -3.8° ± 3° (left) and 1.7° ± 2.8° (right) compared to Vicon. The findings suggest that low-cost markerless motion capture has potential to provide an objective method for assessing lower limb jump and landing mechanics in an applied sports setting. Furthermore, the outcome of the study warrants the need for future research to examine more fully the potential implications of the use of low-cost markerless motion capture in the evaluation of dynamic movement for injury prevention.

  5. Psychiatric and medical disorders in the after math of the uttarakhand disaster: assessment, approach, and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Channaveerachari, Naveen Kumar; Raj, Aneel; Joshi, Suvarna; Paramita, Prajna; Somanathan, Revathi; Chandran, Dhanya; Kasi, Sekar; Bangalore, N Roopesh; Math, Suresh Bada

    2015-01-01

    To present the descriptive data on the frequency of medical and psychiatric morbidity and also to discuss various pertinent issues relevant to the disaster management, the future challenges and psychosocial needs of the 2013 floods in Uttarakhand, India. Observation was undertaken by the disaster management team of National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences in the worst affected four districts of Uttarakhand. Qualified psychiatrists diagnosed the patients using the International Classification of Diseases-10 criteria. Data were collected by direct observation, interview of the survivors, group sessions, individual key-informant interview, individual session, and group interventions. Patients with physical health problems formed the majority of treatment seekers (39.6%) in this report. Only about 2% had disaster induced psychiatric diagnoses. As was expected, minor mental disorders in the form of depressive disorders and anxiety disorders formed majority of the psychiatric morbidity. Substance use disorders appear to be very highly prevalent in the community; however, we were not able to assess the morbidity systematically. The mental health infrastructure and manpower is abysmally inadequate. There is an urgent need to implement the National Mental Health Program to increase the mental health infrastructure and services in the four major disaster-affected districts.

  6. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J; Hearty, Paul J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  7. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

  8. Unlocking the Treasures of the Ocean: Current Assessment and Future Perspectives of Seafloor Resources (C.F Gauss Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jegen, Marion

    2016-04-01

    Oceans cover 70% of the Earth's surface, and there is reason to believe that the wealth of mineral and carbon resources on the seafloor is similar to deposits on land. While off-shore energy resources such as oil and gas are nowadays regarded as conventional, energy resources in form of methane hydrates and seafloor mineral deposits are yet unconventional and at best marginally economic. However, taking into account global population growth, geopolitics and technological development (both in terms of increasing industrialization and possibility to explore and mine seafloor resources), these resources might play a more fundamental role in the future. Resource assessment and understanding of the geological formation process of resources are topics in marine geosciences with broad relevance to society. The lecture presents an overview of the geophysical exploration of the seafloor and its resource potential. Starting from the link of physical parameter anomalies associated with resources, I will explore marine technological developments on how to sense them remotely from the seafloor. Also the question will be addressed of how well we can actually quantify the amount of resources from geophysical data. The process will be illustrated based on theoretical work as well as case studies from around the world.

  9. Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, K; Surminski, S; Hall, J; Crick, F

    2017-10-01

    Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Hansen

    Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  11. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; hide

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  12. An economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in Japan – an assessment using the E3MG macro-econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollitt, Hector; Park, Seung-Joon; Lee, Soocheol; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we consider future options for Japanese energy and climate policy. We assess the economic and environmental impacts of changing the share of electricity generated by nuclear power and varying the mid-term GHG targets. The quantitative approach we use is based on the global macro-econometric E3MG model. Our analysis reveals that the cost of denuclearisation to Japanese GDP is close to zero, and for employment the impact is slightly positive. Our results also show a double-dividend effect if (revenue-neutral) carbon taxes are levied in order to meet the GHG reduction targets, and this double-dividend effect is largest in the scenarios without nuclear power. However, our analysis suggests that a very high carbon tax rate would have to be imposed in order to achieve a 25% reduction in GHG emissions in 2020 (compared to 1990 levels) while simultaneously phasing out nuclear power. - Highlights: • We modelled 12 scenarios for Japan with different shares for nuclear power and different emission targets. • The results showed that phasing out nuclear power would have at most a very small reduction in GDP. • If a carbon tax with revenue recycling is applied, there could be an increase in GDP. • But the carbon price required to meet Japan's 25% emission reduction target is very high if the share of nuclear power is reduced

  13. A future climate assessment on the quality and quantity of CrVI contaminated groundwater in the eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatzaki, M.; Argyraki, A.; Gkiouleka, I.; Paternoster, M.; Hatipoglu Bagci, Z.; Shammout, M.; Moraetis, D.; Dermatas, D.; Christou, A.

    2017-12-01

    The shortage of water and the water quality problems in Mediterranean countries appear more severe under climate change due to the intensive agricultural activities and the urban and industrial development that require reforms in the water policy approach. The ERANETMED CrITERIA project aims to assist water management organizations and water users in decision making when coping with water scarcity, climate extremes and contaminated water. Case areas of Mediterranean countries (Italy, Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Jordan) with Cr(VI) contaminated waters are used as an example of a specific water pressure problem that has to be tackled through integrated water resources management. Moreover, Oman represents the arid-end member in identifying the different pathways of Cr(VI) contamination in surface and groundwater due to arid conditions. Thus, areas of similar geology can be used as analogs of areas passing from semi-arid to arid conditions. From a climate change perspective, it is important to investigate the impacts of changing precipitation patterns and, thus, assess the vulnerability of the aquifers. Thus, a high spatial resolution analysis is performed with observational data and climate model simulations on several time-scales drought and extreme precipitation, providing a concise picture of drought and flooding events for the present and the future climate. We use CORDEX experiment simulations under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, further downscaled over the case study areas providing high spatial resolution information. The case studies inter-comparison stresses the diverse needs on water management along the Mediterranean and at the same time identifies common messages related to the future changes on water resources. RCP 4.5 shows a mild decrease in precipitation that becomes more severe towards the end of the century, though under the RCP 8.5 intense decrease is explicit in most timescales. The significant increase of precipitation variability and short and long-term drought

  14. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  15. Assessment of oxy-fuel, pre- and post-combustion-based carbon capture for future IGCC plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunze, Christian; Spliethoff, Hartmut

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Hot gas cleanup is a highly favorable technology for all selected IGCC concepts. ► Proposed high pressure IGCC with membrane reactor enables direct CO 2 condensation. ► IGCC with OTM and carbonate looping enable significant synergy effects. ► Combining IGCC and oxy-fuel is technically challenging but energetically favorable. ► All selected IGCC concepts are able to realize CO 2 capture rates up to 99%. -- Abstract: Environmental damage due to the emission of greenhouse gases from conventional coal-based power plants is a growing concern. Various carbon capture strategies to minimize CO 2 emissions are currently being investigated. Unfortunately, the efficiency drop due to de-carbonization is still significant and the capture rate is limited. Therefore three future hard coal IGCC concepts are assessed here, applying emerging technologies and various carbon capture approaches. The advanced pre-combustion capture concept is based on hot gas clean-up, membrane-enhanced CO conversion and direct CO 2 condensation. The concept reached a net efficiency of 45.1% (LHV), representing an improvement of 6.46% compared to the conventional IGCC base case. The second IGCC concept, based on post-combustion capture via calcination–carbonation loops, hot gas clean-up and oxygen membranes, showed a net efficiency of 45.87% (LHV). The third IGCC concept applies hot gas clean-up and combustion of the unconverted fuel gas using pure oxygen. The oxygen is supplied by an integrated oxygen membrane. The combination of IGCC and oxy-fuel process reached a net efficiency of 45.74% (LHV). In addition to their increased efficiency, all of the concepts showed significantly improved carbon capture rates up to 99%, resulting in virtually carbon-free fossil power plants.

  16. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

  17. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

  18. Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willis, Stephen; Hole, Dave; Collingham, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird ...

  19. Cost development of future technologies for power generation-A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neij, Lena

    2008-01-01

    Technology foresight studies have become an important tool in identifying realistic ways of reducing the impact of modern energy systems on the climate and the environment. Studies on the future cost development of advanced energy technologies are of special interest. One approach widely adopted for the analysis of future cost is the experience curve approach. The question is, however, how robust this approach is, and which experience curves should be used in energy foresight analysis. This paper presents an analytical framework for the analysis of future cost development of new energy technologies for electricity generation; the analytical framework is based on an assessment of available experience curves, complemented with bottom-up analysis of sources of cost reductions and, for some technologies, judgmental expert assessments of long-term development paths. The results of these three methods agree in most cases, i.e. the cost (price) reductions described by the experience curves match the incremental cost reduction described in the bottom-up analysis and the judgmental expert assessments. For some technologies, the bottom-up analysis confirms large uncertainties in future cost development not captured by the experience curves. Experience curves with a learning rate ranging from 0% to 20% are suggested for the analysis of future cost development

  20. Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear

    2011-01-01

    Accurately forecasting future forest conditions and the implications for ecosystem services depends on understanding land use dynamics. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, we forecast changes in land uses for the coterminous United States in response to three scenarios. Our land use models forecast urbanization in response to the...

  1. ASSESSMENTS OF FUTURE ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS AND PROBLEMS OF INCREASED USE, RECYCLING, AND COMBUSTION OF FIBER-REINFORCED, PLASTIC AND METAL COMPOSITE MATERIALS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of the study is to identify and define future environmental concerns related to the projected utilization, recycling, and combustion of composite materials. The study is being conducted for the Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS) of the U.S. Env...

  2. Future concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2, CFC and CH4 - an assessment on the educational level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoppenau, S.

    1992-01-01

    A model on the educational level is described to estimate effective future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. The effects of chlorofluorocarbon and methane emission and deforestation are taken into account. The influence of different emission scenarios on the time evolution of greenhouse-gas concentration are illustrated. Future global energy policies are discussed both under the aspects of rising world population and the reduction in global CO 2 emissions. The model can be handled on a PC or even on a pocket calculator

  3. In Situ Estuarine and Marine Toxicity Testing: A Review, Including Recommendations for Future Use in Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    field and microcosms than they do under laboratory test conditions. In the case of tributyltin ( TBT ) exposures in San Diego Bay, he found that...TECHNICAL REPORT 1986 September 2009 In Situ Estuarine and Marine Toxicity Testing A Review, Including Recommendations for Future Use in...Pacific TECHNICAL REPORT 1986 September 2009 In Situ Estuarine and Marine Toxicity Testing A Review, Including Recommendations for Future Use in

  4. Future directions in psychological assessment: combining evidence-based medicine innovations with psychology's historical strengths to enhance utility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngstrom, Eric A

    2013-01-01

    Assessment has been a historical strength of psychology, with sophisticated traditions of measurement, psychometrics, and theoretical underpinnings. However, training, reimbursement, and utilization of psychological assessment have been eroded in many settings. Evidence-based medicine (EBM) offers a different perspective on evaluation that complements traditional strengths of psychological assessment. EBM ties assessment directly to clinical decision making about the individual, uses simplified Bayesian methods explicitly to integrate assessment data, and solicits patient preferences as part of the decision-making process. Combining the EBM perspective with psychological assessment creates a hybrid approach that is more client centered, and it defines a set of applied research topics that are highly clinically relevant. This article offers a sequence of a dozen facets of the revised assessment process, along with examples of corollary research studies. An eclectic integration of EBM and evidence-based assessment generates a powerful hybrid that is likely to have broad applicability within clinical psychology and enhance the utility of psychological assessments.

  5. Assessment of the Anticipated Environmental Footprint of Future Nuclear Energy Systems. Evidence of the Beneficial Effect of Extensive Recycling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jérôme Serp

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this early 21st century, our societies have to face a tremendous and increasing energy need while mitigating the global climate change and preserving the environment. Addressing this challenge requires an energy transition from the current fossil energy-based system to a carbon-free energy production system, based on a relevant energy mix combining renewables and nuclear energy. However, such an energy transition will only occur if it is accepted by the population. Powerful and reliable tools, such as life cycle assessments (LCA, aiming at assessing the respective merits of the different energy mix for most of the environmental impact indicators are therefore mandatory for supporting a risk-informed decision-process at the societal level. Before studying the deployment of a given energy mix, a prerequisite is to perform LCAs on each of the components of the mix. This paper addresses two potential nuclear energy components: a nuclear fuel cycle based on the Generation III European Pressurized Reactors (EPR and a nuclear fuel cycle based on the Generation IV Sodium Fast Reactors (SFR. The basis of this study relies on the previous work done on the current French nuclear fuel cycle using the bespoke NELCAS tool specifically developed for studying nuclear fuel cycle environmental impacts. Our study highlights that the EPR already brings a limited improvement to the current fuel cycle thanks to a higher efficiency of the energy transformation and a higher burn-up of the nuclear fuel (−20% on most of the chosen indicators whereas the introduction of the GEN IV fast reactors will bring a significant breakthrough by suppressing the current front-end of the fuel cycle thanks to the use of depleted uranium instead of natural enriched uranium (this leads to a decrease of the impact from 17% on water consumption and withdrawal and up to 96% on SOx emissions. The specific case of the radioactive waste is also studied, showing that only the partitioning

  6. From Site Data to Safety Assessment: Analysis of Present and Future Hydrological Conditions at a Coastal Site in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berglund, Sten; Bosson, Emma; Sassner, Mona

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at the Forsmark site in Sweden, which has been proposed as the site for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Forsmark is a coastal site that changes in response to shoreline displacement. In the considered time frame (until year 10 000 ad), the hydrological system will be affected by landscape succession associated with shoreline displacement and changes in vegetation, regolith stratigraphy, and climate. Based on extensive site investigations and modeling of present hydrological conditions, the effects of different processes on future site hydrology are quantified. As expected, shoreline displacement has a strong effect on local hydrology (e.g., groundwater flow) in areas that change from sea to land. The comparison between present and future land areas emphasizes the importance of climate variables relative to other factors for main hydrological features such as water balances

  7. Volatile emissions from Cascade cinder cone eruptions: Implications for future hazard assessments in the Central and Southern Cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, L. K.; Wallace, P. J.; Cashman, K. V.

    2012-12-01

    the Central Oregon Cascades are (averages from each cone): 700-1190 ppm S; 480-1115 ppm Cl; 120-280 ppm F; and for Northern California: 620-1100 ppm S; 305-445 ppm Cl; 130-240 ppm F. Maximum values for the two regions are 1610 ppm S, 1490 ppm Cl, and 440 ppm F. The majority of studies on health hazards from inhalation or ingestion of volcanic aerosols are centered on livestock; therefore not much is known of the effects on humans. This emphasizes the importance of such a study in a volcanically active region. Levels of volcanic aerosols are considered "hazardous" and to "pose a hazardous risk" to surrounding agricultural and residential communities if concentrations are elevated above World Health Organization (WHO) or Occupational Safety and Health Administration maximum exposure limits (OSHA) (SO2: 7 ppm for a 24-hr period; HCl: 5 ppm for a 24-hr period; HF: 3 ppm for a 10-hr period). By assessing volatile concentrations from past eruptions we can better constrain the probable volatile hazards future cinder cone eruptions pose to surrounding agricultural and residential communities near the Cascades.

  8. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene R Faber

    Full Text Available Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years. Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05. Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%. Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%. This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  9. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologi...

  10. The current and future role of general practitioners in skin cancer care: an assessment of 268 general practitioners

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijsingen, M.C.J. van; Bon, B.W. van; Wilt, G.J. van der; Lagro-Janssen, A.L.M.; Gerritsen, M.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Given the increase in skin cancer (SC) it seems inevitable that general practitioners (GPs) will play a larger role in SC care in the near future. OBJECTIVES: To obtain insights into the opinion of GPs with respect to their role in SC care, and their SC knowledge and skills. METHODS: A

  11. A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    2012-01-01

    are that in the future (2075–2099) at most locations of Japan: (1) extreme wind events (10-minute sustained wind speed exceeding 30 m/s) are more likely to occur; (2) the median of the annual maximum wind speed decreases; (3) the expected number of damaged residential buildings decreases, assuming that the profile...

  12. A proposed method to assess the damage risk of future climate change to museum objects in historic buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbregts, Z.; Kramer, R.P.; Martens, M.H.J.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.

    2012-01-01

    Future climate change is expected to have a critical effect on valuable museum collections that are housed in historic buildings. Changes of the indoor environment in the building affect the microclimate around the museum objects and may cause damage to the collection. In this study, a method is

  13. Application of Temperature Index Model to Assess the Future Hydrological Regime of the Glacierized Catchments in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayastha, R.; Kayastha, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    Unavailability of hydro meteorological data in the Himalayan regions is challenging on understanding the flow regimes. Temperature index model is simple yet the powerful glacio-hydrological model to simulate the discharge in the glacierized basin. Modified Positive Degree Day (MPDD) Model Version 2.0 is a grid-ded based semi distributed model with baseflow module is a robust melt modelling tools to estimate the discharge. MPDD model uses temperature and precipitation as a forcing datasets to simulate the discharge and also to obtain the snowmelt, icemelt, rain and baseflow contribution on total discharge. In this study two glacierized, Marsyangdi and Langtang catchment were investigated for the future hydrological regimes. Marsyangdi encompasses an area of 4026.19 sq. km with 20% glaciated area, whereas Langtang catchment with area of 354.64 sq. km with 36% glaciated area is studied to examine for the future climatic scenarios. The model simulates discharge well for the observed period; (1992-1998) in Marsyangdi and from (2007-2013) in Langtang catchment. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for the both catchment were above 0.75 with the volume difference less than - 8 %. The snow and ice melts contribution in Marsyangdi were 4.7% and 10.2% whereas in Langtang the contribution is 15.3% and 23.4%, respectively. Rain contribution ( 40%) is higher than the baseflow contribution in total discharge in both basins. The future river discharge is also predicted using the future climate data from the regional climate models (RCMs) of CORDEX South Asia experiments for the medium stabilization scenario RCP4.5 and very high radiative forcing scenario RCP8.5 after bias correction. The projected future discharge of both catchment shows slightly increase in both scenarios with increase of snow and ice melt contribution on discharge. The result generated from the model can be utilized to understand the future hydrological regimes of the glacierized catchment also the impact of

  14. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

  15. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  16. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  17. Changes in the impact assessment family 2003-2014 : Implications for considering achievements, gaps and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Francis

    2015-01-01

    Over 150 forms of impact assessment can be identified using Google searches, with several new forms appearing since 2003. Since then, the popularity of the various members of the impact assessment family has changed, partly in response to legislative and regulatory changes, and general trends in

  18. Comparative assessment for future prediction of urban water environment using WEAP model: A case study of Kathmandu, Manila and Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Yoshifumi, Masago; Ammar, Rafieiemam; Mishra, Binaya; Fukushi, Ken

    2017-04-01

    Uncontrolled release of pollutants, increasing extreme weather condition, rapid urbanization and poor governance posing a serious threat to sustainable water resource management in developing urban spaces. Considering half of the world's mega-cities are in the Asia and the Pacific with 1.7 billion people do not access to improved water and sanitation, water security through its proper management is both an increasing concern and an imperative critical need. This research work strives to give a brief glimpse about predicted future water environment in Bagmati, Pasig and Ciliwung rivers from three different cities viz. Manila, Kathmandu and Jakarta respectively. Hydrological model used here to foresee the collective impacts of rapid population growth because of urbanization as well as climate change on unmet demand and water quality in near future time by 2030. All three rivers are major source of water for different usage viz. domestic, industrial, agriculture and recreation but uncontrolled withdrawal and sewerage disposal causing deterioration of water environment in recent past. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was used to model river water quality pollution future scenarios using four indicator species i.e. Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Nitrate (NO3). Result for simulated water quality as well as unmet demand for year 2030 when compared with that of reference year clearly indicates that not only water quality deteriorates but also unmet demands is increasing in future course of time. This also suggests that current initiatives and policies for water resource management are not sufficient enough and hence immediate and inclusive action through transdisciplinary research.

  19. An Economic Assessment of Local Farm Multi-Purpose Surface Water Retention Systems under Future Climate Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela Berry

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Regions dependent on agricultural production are concerned about the uncertainty associated with climate change. Extreme drought and flooding events are predicted to occur with greater frequency, requiring mitigation strategies to reduce their negative impacts. Multi-purpose local farm water retention systems can reduce water stress during drought periods by supporting irrigation. The retention systems’ capture of excess spring runoff and extreme rainfall events also reduces flood potential downstream. Retention systems may also be used for biomass production and nutrient retention. A sub-watershed scale retention system was analysed using a dynamic simulation model to predict the economic advantages in the future. Irrigated crops using water from the downstream reservoir at Pelly’s Lake, Manitoba, Canada, experienced a net decrease in gross margin in the future due to the associated irrigation and reservoir infrastructure costs. However, the multi-purpose benefits of the retention system at Pelly’s Lake of avoided flood damages, nutrient retention, carbon sequestration, and biomass production provide an economic benefit of $25,507.00/hectare of retention system/year. Multi-purpose retention systems under future climate uncertainty provide economic and environmental gains when used to avoid flood damages, for nutrient retention and carbon sequestration, and biomass production. The revenue gained from these functions can support farmers willing to invest in irrigation while providing economic and environmental benefits to the region.

  20. Future Riverine Inorganic Nitrogen Load to the Baltic Sea From Sweden: An Ensemble Approach to Assessing Climate Change Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teutschbein, C.; Sponseller, R. A.; Grabs, T.; Blackburn, M.; Boyer, E. W.; Hytteborn, J. K.; Bishop, K.

    2017-11-01

    The dramatic increase of bioreactive nitrogen entering the Earth's ecosystems continues to attract growing attention. Increasingly large quantities of inorganic nitrogen are flushed from land to water, accelerating freshwater, and marine eutrophication. Multiple, interacting, and potentially countervailing drivers control the future hydrologic export of inorganic nitrogen. In this paper, we attempt to resolve these land-water interactions across boreal/hemiboreal Sweden in the face of a changing climate with help of a versatile modeling framework to maximize the information value of existing measurement time series. We combined 6,962 spatially distributed water chemistry observations spread over 31 years with daily streamflow and air temperature records. An ensemble of climate model projections, hydrological simulations, and several parameter parsimonious regression models was employed to project future riverine inorganic nitrogen dynamics across Sweden. The median predicted increase in total inorganic nitrogen export from Sweden (2061-2090) due to climate change was 14% (interquartile range 0-29%), based on the ensemble of 7,500 different predictions for each study site. The overall export as well as the seasonal pattern of inorganic nitrogen loads in a future climate are mostly influenced by longer growing seasons and more winter flow, which offset the expected decline in spring flood. The predicted increase in inorganic nitrogen loading due to climate change means that the political efforts for reducing anthropogenic nitrogen inputs need to be increased if ambitions for reducing the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea are to be achieved.

  1. Rib fracture as a predictor of future fractures in young and older postmenopausal women: National Osteoporosis Risk Assessment (NORA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajjan, S. G.; Barrett-Connor, E.; McHorney, C. A.; Miller, P. D.; Sen, S. S.; Siris, E.

    2013-01-01

    Summary A rib fracture history after age 45 was associated with a 5.4-fold increase in new rib fracture risk and a 2.4-fold increase in risk of any new clinical fracture in 155,031 postmenopausal women. A rib fracture history suggests osteoporosis and should be considered when evaluating patients for interventions to prevent fractures. Introduction Until recently, little attention was paid to rib fracture as an osteoporosis marker. Emerging evidence suggests rib fracture may be an osteoporotic fracture in men and women. We report the 5-year independent association between baseline rib fracture histories and self-reported future fractures by age (decade) in the NORA cohort (155,031 postmenopausal women, 50–99 years). Methods Participants reported fracture history and responded to follow-up surveys at years 1, 3, or 6. Women with a baseline rib fracture history without other fractures were compared with women with no fracture. Results At baseline, 4,758 (3.07%) women reported a rib fracture history without other fractures; 6,300 women reported 6,830 new clinical fractures, including wrist (2,271), rib (1,891), spine (1,136), hip (941), and forearm (591). Adjusted relative risk (ARR) values (95% confidence interval [CI]) for future fractures in women with rib fracture history versus women with no fracture history were 5.4 (4.8–6.1) at the rib, 2.1 (1.7–2.6) at the spine, and 1.4 (1.1–1.7) at the wrist, and not significant for forearm or hip fractures. Future fracture risk was at least doubled in women with a rib fracture history in all ages: ARR (95% CI) 3.4 (2.8–4.0) for ages 50–59, 2.5 (2.1–3.0) for ages 60–69, 2.0 (1.7–2.3) for ages 70–79, and 2.0 (1.6–2.6) for ages >80. Conclusions Rib fracture, the second most common clinical fracture in women (after wrist fracture), predicted future fractures of the rib, wrist, and spine at all ages. Women presenting with rib fractures should be evaluated for appropriate management to prevent future

  2. Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

    2013-12-01

    Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience

  3. Detecting acute distress and risk of future psychological morbidity in critically ill patients: validation of the intensive care psychological assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Dorothy M; Hankins, Matthew; Smyth, Deborah A; Rhone, Elijah E; Mythen, Michael G; Howell, David C J; Weinman, John A

    2014-09-24

    The psychological impact of critical illness on a patient can be severe, and frequently results in acute distress as well as psychological morbidity after leaving hospital. A UK guideline states that patients should be assessed in critical care units, both for acute distress and risk of future psychological morbidity; but no suitable method for carrying out this assessment exists. The Intensive care psychological assessment tool (IPAT) was developed as a simple, quick screening tool to be used routinely to detect acute distress, and the risk of future psychological morbidity, in critical care units. A validation study of IPAT was conducted in the critical care unit of a London hospital. Once un-sedated, orientated and alert, critical care patients were assessed with the IPAT and validated tools for distress, to determine the IPAT's concurrent validity. Fifty six patients took IPAT again to establish test-retest reliability. Finally, patients completed posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety questionnaires at three months, to determine predictive validity of the IPAT. One hundred and sixty six patients completed the IPAT, and 106 completed follow-up questionnaires at 3 months. Scale analysis showed IPAT was a reliable 10-item measure of critical care-related psychological distress. Test-retest reliability was good (r =0.8). There was good concurrent validity with measures of anxiety and depression (r =0.7, P psychological morbidity was good (r =0.4, P psychological morbidity (AUC =0.7). The IPAT was found to have good reliability and validity. Sensitivity and specificity analysis suggest the IPAT could provide a way of allowing staff to assess psychological distress among critical care patients after further replication and validation. Further work is also needed to determine its utility in predicting future psychological morbidity.

  4. Focus group reflections on the current and future state of cognitive assessment tools in geriatric health care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Whitehead JC

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Jocelyne C Whitehead,1 Sara A Gambino,1 Jeffrey D Richter,2 Jennifer D Ryan1,3,41Rotman Research Institute, Baycrest, 2Independent Human Factors Consultant, Toronto, ON, Canada; 3Department of Psychology, 4Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, CanadaObjective: This study provides insight into the thoughts and opinions of geriatric health-care professionals toward cognitive assessments and the use of emerging technologies, such as eye-tracking, to supplement current tools.Methods: Two focus group sessions were conducted with nurses and physicians who routinely administer neurocognitive assessments to geriatric populations. Video recordings of the focus group sessions were transcribed and a thematic analysis was performed.Results: Participants reported the need for assessment and diagnostic tools that are accessible and efficient, and that are capable of accommodating the rapid growth in the aging population. The prevalence of more complex ailments experienced by older adults has had repercussions in the quality of care that the clients receive, and has contributed to lengthy wait times and resource shortages. Health-care professionals stated that they are hampered by the disjointed structure of the health-care system and that they would benefit from a more efficient allocation of responsibilities made possible through tools that did not require extensive training or certification. Eyetracking-based cognitive assessments were thought to strongly complement this system, yet it was thought that difficulty would be faced in gaining the support and increased uptake by health-care professionals due to the nonintuitive relationship between eyetracking and cognition.Conclusion: The findings suggest that health-care professionals are receptive to the use of eyetracking technology to assess for cognitive health as it would conserve resources by allowing frontline staff to administer assessments with minimal training

  5. Environmental Impacts of Future Urban Deployment of Electric Vehicles: Assessment Framework and Case Study of Copenhagen for 2016-2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohnes, Florence A; Gregg, Jay S; Laurent, Alexis

    2017-12-05

    To move toward environmentally sustainable transport systems, electric vehicles (EVs) are increasingly seen as viable alternatives to internal combustion vehicles (ICVs). To ensure effectiveness of such deployment, holistic assessments of environmental impacts can help decision-makers determine optimized urban strategies in a long-term perspective. However, explicit guidance and conduct of such assessments are currently missing. Here, we therefore propose a framework using life cycle assessment that enables the quantification of environmental impacts of a transport system at full urban scale from a fleet-based, foresight perspective. The analysis of the passenger car fleet development in the city of Copenhagen for the years 2016-2030 is used as a proof-of-concept. We modeled and compared five powertrain technologies, and we assessed four fleet-based scenarios for the entire city. Our results showed relative environmental benefits from range-extended and fuel-cell EVs over ICVs and standard EVs. These results were found to be sensitive to local settings, like electricity grid mix, which could alter the relative environmental performances across EV technologies. The comprehensive framework developed here can be applied to other geographic areas and contexts to assess the environmental sustainability of transport systems.

  6. Assessment of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution in snowmelt period for a cold area using SWAT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yu; Bian, Jianmin; Zhao, Yongsheng; Tang, Jie; Jia, Zhuo

    2018-02-05

    The source area of Liao River is a typical cold region in northeastern China, which experiences serious problems with agricultural nonpoint source pollution (NPS), it is important to understand future climate change impacts on NPS in the watershed. This issue has been investigated by coupling semi distributed hydrological model (SWAT), statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and global circulation model (GCMs). The results show that annual average temperature would rise by 2.1 °C (1.3 °C) in the 2080 s under scenario RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), and annual precipitation would increase by 67 mm (33 mm). The change in winter temperature and precipitation is most significant with an increase by 0.23 °C/10a (0.17 °C/10a) and 1.94 mm/10a (2.78 mm/10a). The future streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease by 19.05% (10.59%), 12.27% (8.81%) and 10.63% (6.11%), respectively. Monthly average streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease from March to November, and increase from December to February. This is because the increased precipitation and temperature in winter, which made the spring snowpack melting earlier. These study indicate the trends of nonpoint source pollution during the snowmelt period under climate change conditions, accordingly adaptation measures will be necessary.

  7. Past and future cadmium emissions from municipal solid-waste incinerators in Japan for the assessment of cadmium control policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Kyoko

    2013-11-15

    Cadmium (Cd) is a harmful pollutant emitted from municipal solid-waste incinerators (MSWIs). Cd stack emissions from MSWIs have been estimated between 1970 and 2030 in Japan. The aims of this study are to quantify emitted Cd by category and to analyze Cd control policies to reduce emissions. Emissions were estimated using a dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) that took into account representative waste treatment flows and historical changes in emission factors. This work revealed that the emissions peaked in 1973 (11.1t) and were ten times those in 2010 (1.2 t). Emission from MSWIs was two-thirds of that from non-ferrous smelting in 2010. The main Cd emission source was pigment use in the 1970s, but after 2000 it had shifted to nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) batteries. Future emissions were estimated for 2030. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, an intensive collection of used Ni-Cd batteries and a ban on any future use of Ni-Cd batteries will reduce emissions by 0.09 and 0.3 1t, respectively, in 2030. This approach enables us to identify the major Cd emission source from MSWIs, and to prioritize the possible Cd control policies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Assessing the impacts of climate change on future precipitation trends based on downscaled cmip5 simulations data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mentgal, A.; Harijan, K.; Uqaili, M.A.

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates future changes in precipitation over the CRB (Columbia River Basin) in both wet (DJF) and dry (JJA) seasons under RCP85 GHG emission scenario. The simulations from four climate models which participated in CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5) were downscaled using the BCSD (Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation) method. After downscaling, extreme value analysis and MME (Multi Model Ensemble) averaging is performed. This study focuses on computing 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return levels for both winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. The maximum winter precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods have been estimated to be about 112, 127, 148 and 171 mm/day respectively whereas the maximum summer precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods are observed to be about 56, 81, 96 and 126 mm/day respectively. The MME average outperformed the individual models in simulating the historical precipitation in both seasons. The MME results showed a consistent and significant increase in the extreme precipitation and decrease in mean precipitation in both future wet and dry seasons. Largest increase in precipitation occurs over the higher elevations of the Cascades Range, Coast Range and the Mountainous Range. (author)

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Texas Water: A White Paper Assessment of the Past, Present and Future and Recommendations for Action

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banner, Jay L.; Jackson, Charles S.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Hayhoe, Katharine; Woodhouse, Connie; Gulden, Lindsey; Jacobs, Kathy; North, Gerald; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Washington, Warren M.; Jiang, Xiaoyan; Casteel, Richard

    2010-09-01

    Texas comprises the eastern portion of the Southwest region, where the convergence of climatological and geopolitical forces has the potential to put extreme stress on water resources. Geologic records indicate that Texas experienced large climate changes on millennial time scales in the past, and over the last thousand years, tree-ring records indicate that there were significant periods of drought in Texas. These droughts were of longer duration than the 1950s 'drought of record' that is commonly used in planning, and they occurred independently of human-induced global climate change. Although there has been a negligible net temperature increase in Texas over the past century, temperatures have increased more significantly over the past three decades. Under essentially all climate model projections, Texas is susceptible to significant climate change in the future. Most projections for the 21st century show that with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, there will be an increase in temperatures across Texas and a shift to a more arid average climate. Studies agree that Texas will likely become significantly warmer and drier, yet the magnitude, timing, and regional distribution of these changes are uncertain. There is a large uncertainty in the projected changes in precipitation for Texas for the 21st century. In contrast, the more robust projected increase in temperature with its effect on evaporation, which is a dominant component in the region's hydrologic cycle, is consistent with model projections of frequent and extended droughts throughout the state. For these reasons, we recommend that Texas invest resources to investigate and anticipate the impacts of climate change on Texas water resources, with the goal of providing data to inform resource planning. This investment should support development of (1) research programs that provide policy-relevant science; (2) education programs to engage future researchers and policy

  10. A Multimodal Dialog System for Language Assessment: Current State and Future Directions. Research Report. ETS RR-17-21

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suendermann-Oeft, David; Ramanarayanan, Vikram; Yu, Zhou; Qian, Yao; Evanini, Keelan; Lange, Patrick; Wang, Xinhao; Zechner, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    We present work in progress on a multimodal dialog system for English language assessment using a modular cloud-based architecture adhering to open industry standards. Among the modules being developed for the system, multiple modules heavily exploit machine learning techniques, including speech recognition, spoken language proficiency rating,…

  11. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) for assessment of microbial water quality: current progress, challenges, and future opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, BoonFei; Ng, Charmaine; Nshimyimana, Jean Pierre; Loh, Lay Leng; Gin, Karina Y-H; Thompson, Janelle R

    2015-01-01

    Water quality is an emergent property of a complex system comprised of interacting microbial populations and introduced microbial and chemical contaminants. Studies leveraging next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies are providing new insights into the ecology of microbially mediated processes that influence fresh water quality such as algal blooms, contaminant biodegradation, and pathogen dissemination. In addition, sequencing methods targeting small subunit (SSU) rRNA hypervariable regions have allowed identification of signature microbial species that serve as bioindicators for sewage contamination in these environments. Beyond amplicon sequencing, metagenomic and metatranscriptomic analyses of microbial communities in fresh water environments reveal the genetic capabilities and interplay of waterborne microorganisms, shedding light on the mechanisms for production and biodegradation of toxins and other contaminants. This review discusses the challenges and benefits of applying NGS-based methods to water quality research and assessment. We will consider the suitability and biases inherent in the application of NGS as a screening tool for assessment of biological risks and discuss the potential and limitations for direct quantitative interpretation of NGS data. Secondly, we will examine case studies from recent literature where NGS based methods have been applied to topics in water quality assessment, including development of bioindicators for sewage pollution and microbial source tracking, characterizing the distribution of toxin and antibiotic resistance genes in water samples, and investigating mechanisms of biodegradation of harmful pollutants that threaten water quality. Finally, we provide a short review of emerging NGS platforms and their potential applications to the next generation of water quality assessment tools.

  12. A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Verburg, Peter H.; Popp, Alexander; Lindner, Marcus; Verkerk, Pieter J.; Moiseyev, Alexander; Schrammeijer, Elizabeth; Helming, John; Tabeau, Andrzej; Schulp, Catharina J.E.; Zanden, van der Emma H.; Lavalle, Carlo; E Silva, Filipe Batista; Walz, Ariane; Bodirsky, Benjamin

    2018-01-01

    Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur

  13. Transweb - real time transportation threat assessment analysis tool: look what the future may bring for energy related infrastructure?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dilger, F.; Ballard, J.D.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Transweb is envisioned as a transportation threat assessment program and this real time GIS based web assessment too (a.k.a., GTA for GIS threat assessment) can be used to plan railroad or highway shipments of hazardous waste (e.g., toxic industrial chemicals - TIC's) and high-level nuclear waste materials (e.g., like those destined for Yucca Mountain - HLW) that may be used in energy production facilities. Transweb will become a vulnerability mapping and analysis tool that can be used by transportation planners, emergency response personnel, security/safety managers, and law enforcement to route such shipments, make contingency plans in the event of altered road or rail conditions, and/or to assist in the response to an accident or human initiated event like terrorism. The initial phase of the project will seek to establish the protocol on highway shipments and follow up phases will focus on rail GTA's. This paper will report on the initial development of this analytical technique, define the problems associated with such analysis, and offer examples of its analytical possibilities for threat assessment relative to energy related facilities like nuclear power generation stations. (author)

  14. The Nursing Home Minimum Data Set Assessment Instrument: Manifest Functions and Unintended Consequences--Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Anna N.; Applebaum, Robert A.

    2009-01-01

    The Minimum Data Set (MDS) is a uniform instrument used in nursing homes to assess residents. In January 2008, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services published a draft of a new MDS--version 3.0. This article traces the instrument's development and the design decisions that shaped it, discusses the MDS's manifest functions--data collection…

  15. Distribution of marine mammals in the North Sea for the generic appropriate assessment of future offshore wind farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brasseur, S.M.J.M.; Scheidat, M.; Aarts, G.M.; Cremer, J.S.M.; Bos, O.G.

    2008-01-01

    The Dutch government has formulated the ambition to increase the generation of renewable energy, among others by increased exploitation of offshore wind farms in the North Sea. To compose the generic appropriate assessment, Deltares has asked IMARES to provide an overview of the current knowledge on

  16. Applying Comprehensive Environmental Assessment to Research Planning for Multiwalled Carbon Nanotubes: Refinements to Inform Future Stakeholder Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    We previously described our collective judgment methods to engage expert stakeholders in the Comprehensive Environmental Assessment (CEA) workshop process applied to nano-TiO2 and nano-Ag research planning. We identified several lessons learned in engaging stakeholders to identif...

  17. Assessment of the present and future offshore wind power potential: a case study in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizuma, Lita; Avotniece, Zanita; Rupainis, Sergejs; Teilans, Artis

    2013-01-01

    Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

  18. Beyond Renewable Portfolio Standards: An Assessment of Regional Supply and Demand Conditions Affecting the Future of Renewable Energy in the West; Report and Executive Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hurlbut, D. J.; McLaren, J.; Gelman, R.

    2013-08-01

    This study assesses the outlook for utility-scale renewable energy development in the West once states have met their renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements. In the West, the last state RPS culminates in 2025, so the analysis uses 2025 as a transition point on the timeline of RE development. Most western states appear to be on track to meet their final requirements, relying primarily on renewable resources located relatively close to the customers being served. What happens next depends on several factors including trends in the supply and price of natural gas, greenhouse gas and other environmental regulations, consumer preferences, technological breakthroughs, and future public policies and regulations. Changes in any one of these factors could make future renewable energy options more or less attractive.

  19. A comparative TCAD assessment of III-V channel materials for future high speed and low power logic applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, U. P.; Takhar, K.; Ranjan, K.; Rathi, S.; Biswas, D.

    2015-02-01

    In this work, by means physics based drift-diffusion simulations, three different narrow band gap semiconductors; InAs, InSb and In0.53Ga0.47As, and their associated heterostructures have been studied for future high speed and low power logic applications. It is observed that In0.53Ga0.47As has higher immunity towards short channel effects with low DIBL and sub-threshold slope than InSb and InAs. Also it is observed that for the same device geometry InSb has the highest drive current and lower intrinsic delay but its ION/IOFF figure of merit is deteriorated due to excess leakage current.

  20. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-01-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants

  1. Branching points for transition pathways: assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foxon, Timothy J.; Pearson, Peter J.G.; Arapostathis, Stathis; Carlsson-Hyslop, Anna; Thornton, Judith

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes initial analysis of branching points on a set of transition pathways to a UK low carbon electricity future by 2050. As described in other papers in this special issue, we are exploring and analysing a set of core transition pathways, based on alternative governance patterns in which the ‘logics’ of market actors, government actors and civil society actors, respectively dominate. This core pathway analysis is enhanced by analyses of branching points within and across the pathways, which informs how competition between different logics plays out at key decision points. Branching points are defined as key decision points at which choices made by actors, in response to internal or external stresses or triggers, determine whether and in what ways the pathway is followed. A set of initial branching points for our three core transition pathways is identified through project and stakeholder workshops, and drawing on analysis of actors’ choices and responses at past branching points in energy system transitions. The potential responses of the actors are identified at these branching points, and risk mitigation strategies are formulated for the dominant actors to reinforce that pathway, as well as opportunities for actors to move away from the pathway. - Highlights: Transition Pathways is analysing three potential pathways to a low carbon future. ► Stresses lead to branching points, where actors make choices, creating pathways. ► These choices may lead to path-dependency. ► Differences in governance logics within transition pathways are also analysed. ► Studying branching points adds theoretical understanding and policy relevance to TP.

  2. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-08-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants.

  3. Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriticos, Darren J; Brunel, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world's worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management.

  4. Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes, an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren J Kriticos

    Full Text Available Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world's worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional

  5. Environmental impacts of future urban deployment of electric vehicles: Assessment framework and case study of Copenhagen for 2016-2030

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohnes, Florence Alexia; Gregg, Jay Sterling; Laurent, Alexis

    2017-01-01

    To move towards environmentally-sustainable transport systems, electric vehicles (EVs) are increasingly seen as viable alternatives to internal combustion vehicles (ICVs). To ensure effectiveness of such deployment, holistic assessments of environmental impacts can help decision-makers determine...... a fleet-based, foresight perspective. The analysis of the passenger car fleet development in the city of Copenhagen for the years 2016-2030 is used as a proof-of-concept. We modelled and compared five powertrain technologies, and we assessed four fleet-based scenarios for the entire city. Our results...... showed relative environmental benefits from range-extended and fuel-cell EVs over ICVs and standard EVs. These results were found to be sensitive to local settings, like electricity grid mix, which could alter the relative environmental performances across EV technologies. The comprehensive framework...

  6. Environmental Assessment for Ongoing and Future Operations at U.S. Navy Dabob Bay and Hood Canal Military Operating Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-05-01

    well as being cultivated in aquaculture operations in Puget Sound, including Hood Canal and Dabob Bay (Figure 3.4-2). Pacific oysters (Crassostrea...gigas) are widely cultivated in aquaculture operations in Puget Sound. Commercial oyster beds exist in Dabob Bay, mostly at the north end. Dabob Bay... Ecotoxicology of metals in aquatic sediments: binding and release, bioavailability, risk assessment, and remediation. Canadian Journal of

  7. Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

    2013-01-01

    The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

  8. A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Zappa, Giuseppe; Shaffrey, Len C.; Hodges, Kevin I.; Sansom, Phil G.; Stephenson, David B.

    2013-01-01

    The response of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones to climate change is investigated in the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In contrast to previous multimodel studies, a feature-tracking algorithm is here applied to separately quantify the re- sponses in the number, the wind intensity, and the precipitation intensity of extratropical cyclones. Moreover, a statistical framework is employed to formally assess the unce...

  9. Next-generation sequencing (NGS for assessment of microbial water quality: current progress, challenges, and future opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BoonFei eTan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Water quality is an emergent property of a complex system comprised of interacting microbial populations and introduced microbial and chemical contaminants. Studies leveraging next-generation sequencing (NGS technologies are providing new insights into the ecology of microbially mediated processes that influence fresh water quality such as algal blooms, contaminant biodegradation, and pathogen dissemination. In addition, sequencing methods targeting small subunit (SSU rRNA hypervariable regions have allowed identification of signature microbial species that serve as bioindicators for sewage contamination in these environments. Beyond amplicon sequencing, metagenomic and metatranscriptomic analyses of microbial communities in fresh water environments reveal the genetic capabilities and interplay of waterborne microorganisms, shedding light on the mechanisms for production and biodegradation of toxins and other contaminants. This review discusses the challenges and benefits of applying NGS-based methods to water quality research and assessment. We will consider the suitability and biases inherent in the application of NGS as a screening tool for assessment of biological risks and discuss the potential and limitations for direct quantitative interpretation of NGS data. Secondly, we will examine case studies from recent literature where NGS based methods have been applied to topics in water quality assessment, including development of bioindicators for sewage pollution and microbial source tracking, characterizing the distribution of toxin and antibiotic resistance genes in water samples, and investigating mechanisms of biodegradation of harmful pollutants that threaten water quality. Finally, we provide a short review of emerging NGS platforms and their potential applications to the next generation of water quality assessment tools.

  10. Review of laboratory-based terrestrial bioaccumulation assessment approaches for organic chemicals: Current status and future possibilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoke, Robert; Huggett, Duane; Brasfield, Sandra; Brown, Becky; Embry, Michelle; Fairbrother, Anne; Kivi, Michelle; Paumen, Miriam Leon; Prosser, Ryan; Salvito, Dan; Scroggins, Rick

    2016-01-01

    In the last decade, interest has been renewed in approaches for the assessment of the bioaccumulation potential of chemicals, principally driven by the need to evaluate large numbers of chemicals as part of new chemical legislation, while reducing vertebrate test organism use called for in animal welfare legislation. This renewed interest has inspired research activities and advances in bioaccumulation science for neutral organic chemicals in aquatic environments. In January 2013, ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute convened experts to identify the state of the science and existing shortcomings in terrestrial bioaccumulation assessment of neutral organic chemicals. Potential modifications to existing laboratory methods were identified, including areas in which new laboratory approaches or test methods could be developed to address terrestrial bioaccumulation. The utility of "non-ecotoxicity" data (e.g., mammalian laboratory data) was also discussed. The highlights of the workshop discussions are presented along with potential modifications in laboratory approaches and new test guidelines that could be used for assessing the bioaccumulation of chemicals in terrestrial organisms. © 2015 SETAC.

  11. Towards our Common Future: Comparative Assessment of the Sustainable Development Strategies of the European Union, the Mediterranean and Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomaz DEŽELAN

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses three sustainable de- velopment strategies – the European Union’s Sustainable Development Strategy in its revised version, the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustain- able Development and Slovenia’s Development Strategy – according to the level of sustainability these strategies provide. Deriving from three di- verse sustainable development regimes, select- ed strategies are scrutinised for the presence of the five general principles of effective sustainable development strategies promoted by the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Co- operation and Development. Building on George and Kirkpatrick’s (2006 framework for analysis, we concentrate on principles of strategic planning and sustainable development, and a coordinated set of measures to ensure their implementation. The results reveal that the major differences be- tween the assessed strategies are present in the sophistication of the theoretical bases and the integration of three main pillars of sustainable development (i.e. environmental, economic and social. In general, the assessed strategies re- flect a high degree of inclusiveness of a variety of interests. However, there is a common weak- ness among them in terms of implementation, be it in the provision of adequate resources, the guarantee of adequate implementing capacity of the institutions designated for implementation or the precise definition of the institutional frame- work responsible for the implementation of the strategy.

  12. Programme of Investments for the Future: continuing and amplifying the action in favour of energy transition. Assessment 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-06-01

    As the ADEME is to implement four Programmes of Investments for the Future (PIA) to support pre-industrial experimentations, research demonstrators or industry firsts in the fields of renewable energies and green chemistry, of tomorrow's vehicles and mobility, of smart power grids, and of circular economy, this report proposes indications of numbers of retained projects and of financial support in different specific fields, and brief presentations of objectives and realisations or projects in energy storage and the hydrogen sector (creation of a world leader in hydrogen production by hydrolysis, project of injection of hydrogen in gas networks), in renewable energies (projects of renewable marine energy), in smart grids (a smart grid tested at the scale of an area of activity), in mobility and transport (the necessity to install at a higher rate charging points for electric vehicles, cleaner ferries, improved performance in railway, an innovative electric bus in Nice), in energy and environmental efficiency (less consuming buildings, improvement of ecologic efficiency in agriculture and industry), and in circular economy and recycling (titanium recycling in aeronautics, fabrication of new tyres with old ones). The themes of the second wave of investments are finally presented, with notably a better efficiency in project instruction modalities (shorter delays, project support, ecologically and economically conditioned financing)

  13. Using photography in 'The Restaurant of the Future'. A useful way to assess portion selection and plate cleaning?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinton, Elanor C; Brunstrom, Jeffery M; Fay, Stephanie H; Wilkinson, Laura L; Ferriday, Danielle; Rogers, Peter J; de Wijk, Rene

    2013-04-01

    Laboratory-based studies of human dietary behaviour benefit from highly controlled conditions; however, this approach can lack ecological validity. Identifying a reliable method to capture and quantify natural dietary behaviours represents an important challenge for researchers. In this study, we scrutinised cafeteria-style meals in the 'Restaurant of the Future.' Self-selected meals were weighed and photographed, both before and after consumption. Using standard portions of the same foods, these images were independently coded to produce accurate and reliable estimates of (i) initial self-served portions, and (ii) food remaining at the end of the meal. Plate cleaning was extremely common; in 86% of meals at least 90% of self-selected calories were consumed. Males ate a greater proportion of their self-selected meals than did females. Finally, when participants visited the restaurant more than once, the correspondence between selected portions was better predicted by the weight of the meal than by its energy content. These findings illustrate the potential benefits of meal photography in this context. However, they also highlight significant limitations, in particular, the need to exclude large amounts of data when one food obscures another. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Assessing Calorimeter Requirements for a 100 TeV Future Collider With Reference to New Physics Benchmarks

    CERN Document Server

    Dylewsky, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Plans for a future 100 TeV circular collider require the design of detection equipment capable of measuring events at such high energy. This study examined the simulated decay of hypothetical 10 TeV excited quarks in 100 TeV pp collisions with regard to the possibility of calorimeter punch-through. Two methods of parameterizing the energy resolution in detector simulations were employed to model the effects of particles escaping the hadronic calorimeter. Varying the constant term of the energy resolution parameterization caused the dijet mass distribution to broaden up to 58% with respect to the ATLAS default. Using the assumption that the jets' makeup could be approximated by 180 GeV pions, their expected signal degradation in calorimeters of varying depths was compared to the varied constant term trials. It was found that the broadening associated with a calorimeter of thickness 7 lambda was consistent with that caused by an increase of 1\\% in the constant term (from the ATLAS default).

  15. An overview of travel-associated central nervous system infectious diseases: risk assessment, general considerations and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izadi, Morteza; Is'haqi, Arman; Is'haqi, Mohammad Ali; Jonaidi Jafari, Nematollah; Rahamaty, Fatemeh; Banki, Abdolali

    2014-08-01

    Nervous system infections are among the most important diseases in travellers. Healthy travellers might be exposed to infectious agents of central nervous system, which may require in-patient care. Progressive course is not uncommon in this family of disorders and requires swift diagnosis. An overview of the available evidence in the field is, therefore, urgent to pave the way to increase the awareness of travel-medicine practitioners and highlights dark areas for future research. In November 2013, data were collected from PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Knowledge (1980 to 2013) including books, reviews, and peer-reviewed literature. Works pertained to pre-travel care, interventions, vaccinations related neurological infections were retrieved. Here we provide information on pre-travel care, vaccination, chronic nervous system disorders, and post-travel complications. Recommendations with regard to knowledge gaps, and state-of-the-art research are made. Given an increasing number of international travellers, novel dynamic ways are available for physicians to monitor spread of central nervous system infections. Newer research has made great progresses in developing newer medications, detecting the spread of infections and the public awareness. Despite an ongoing scientific discussion in the field of travel medicine, further research is required for vaccine development, state-of-the-art laboratory tests, and genetic engineering of vectors.

  16. Improving social impact assessment of protected areas: A review of the literature and directions for future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Nikoleta; McGinlay, James; Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G.

    2017-01-01

    Protected areas are the most widely applied policy tool for biodiversity conservation. However, effective management of protected areas is often obstructed by conflicts mainly associated with the social impacts imposed on local communities and other users by their establishment. Despite the importance of these social impacts they remain significantly under-researched. There is now an increasing need to incorporate social impacts in decision making processes by providing accurate estimations and develop ways to forecast their change in the future. Considering the increase of studies identifying this need, the present paper aims to indicate three main directions that will assist in designing effective tools for measuring and most importantly understanding social impacts: a) perceptions on social impacts of individuals who are directly affected by protected areas need to be incorporated in management evaluation techniques in a meaningful and accurate way and be combined with objective measurements of impact; b) understanding the factors determining the actual and perceived levels of social impacts is a key step for the design of effective management frameworks of protected areas and c) social impacts should not be seen as static concepts but should be seen as a dynamic and long-term factor which needs to be incorporated in decision-making processes.

  17. Assessment of minimally invasive surgical skills of pre-medical students: What can we learn from future learners?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borahay, Mostafa A; Jackson, Mary; Tapısız, Omer L; Lyons, Elizabeth; Patel, Pooja R; Nassar, Ramsey; Kılıç, Gökhan Sami

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge of baseline laparoscopic and robotic surgical skills of future learners is essential to develop teaching strategies that best fit them. The objectives of this study are to determine baseline laparoscopic and robotic skills of high school and college students and compare them to those of current obstetrics and gynecology residents. A cross-sectional (Class II-2) pilot study. Laparoscopic and robotic surgical skills of college and high (secondary) school students were evaluated using simulators and compared to those of obstetrics and gynecology residents. In addition, questionnaire data were collected regarding video game playing and computer use. A total of 17 students, both high school (n=9) and college (n=8), in addition to 11 residents, completed the study. Overall, students performed comparably to the residents in simple exercises (p>.05). However, students took significantly longer time to complete complex exercises (p=.001). Finally, students played video games significantly more than residents (pskill set. This difference may be related to improved hand-eye coordination, possibly due to playing video games. The results of this pilot study should spur more research into surgical teaching strategies.

  18. Improving social impact assessment of protected areas: A review of the literature and directions for future research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Nikoleta, E-mail: nikoleta.jones@anglia.ac.uk [Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge (United Kingdom); McGinlay, James, E-mail: jimmcginlay@hotmail.com [School of Water, Energy & Environment, Cranfield University, Cranfield (United Kingdom); Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G., E-mail: pdimi@env.aegean.gr [Biodiversity Conservation Laboratory, Department of Environment, University of the Aegean, 81100 Mytilene, Lesbos Island (Greece)

    2017-05-15

    Protected areas are the most widely applied policy tool for biodiversity conservation. However, effective management of protected areas is often obstructed by conflicts mainly associated with the social impacts imposed on local communities and other users by their establishment. Despite the importance of these social impacts they remain significantly under-researched. There is now an increasing need to incorporate social impacts in decision making processes by providing accurate estimations and develop ways to forecast their change in the future. Considering the increase of studies identifying this need, the present paper aims to indicate three main directions that will assist in designing effective tools for measuring and most importantly understanding social impacts: a) perceptions on social impacts of individuals who are directly affected by protected areas need to be incorporated in management evaluation techniques in a meaningful and accurate way and be combined with objective measurements of impact; b) understanding the factors determining the actual and perceived levels of social impacts is a key step for the design of effective management frameworks of protected areas and c) social impacts should not be seen as static concepts but should be seen as a dynamic and long-term factor which needs to be incorporated in decision-making processes.

  19. Simple Method for Assessing Spread of Flood Prone Areas under Historical and Future Rainfall in the Upper Citarum Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Dwi Dasanto

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available From 1931 to 2010 the flood frequency in Upper Citarum Watershed had increased sharply indicating the decline of the wateshed quality. With the change of climate, risk of the flood may get worse. This study aims to determine effective rainfall that caused flooding and to evaluate the impact of future rainfall changes on the flood prone areas. Effective rainfall which contributes to direct runoff (DRO and leads to flooding was determined using regression equation relating the DRO and cumulative rainfall of a number of consecutive days. Mapping the flood prone areas was developed using the GIS techniques. Results showed that the effective rainfall which caused flooding was the rainfall accumulation for four consecutive days before occurrence of peak of DRO. The percentage of accuracy between estimated and actual flood maps was about 76.9%. According to historical rainfall, the flood prone areas spreaded at right and left directions of the Upstream Citarum River. If this area experiences the climate change, the frequency and flood extents will increase. This study can only identify locations and possibility of flood occurrence but it cannot demonstrate widespread of flood inundation precisely. However, this simple approach can evaluate the flood frequency and intensity quite well.

  20. The development of a realistic source term for sodium-cooled fast reactors : assessment of current status and future needs.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Phillips, Jesse; Parma, Edward J., Jr.; Olivier, Tara Jean; Middleton, Bobby D.

    2011-06-01

    Sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) continue to be proposed and designed throughout the United States and the world. Although the number of SFRs actually operating has declined substantially since the 1980s, a significant interest in advancing these types of reactor systems remains. Of the many issues associated with the development and deployment of SFRs, one of high regulatory importance is the source term to be used in the siting of the reactor. A substantial amount of modeling and experimental work has been performed over the past four decades on accident analysis, sodium coolant behavior, and radionuclide release for SFRs. The objective of this report is to aid in determining the gaps and issues related to the development of a realistic, mechanistically derived source term for SFRs. This report will allow the reader to become familiar with the severe accident source term concept and gain a broad understanding of the current status of the models and experimental work. Further, this report will allow insight into future work, in terms of both model development and experimental validation, which is necessary in order to develop a realistic source term for SFRs.

  1. Single-centre experience of radiation exposure in acute surgical patients: assessment of therapeutic impact and future recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzmaurice, Gerard J; Brown, Robin; Cranley, Brian; Conlon, Enda F; Todd, R Alan J; O'Donnell, Mark E

    2010-09-01

    Radiological investigations have become a key adjunct in patient management and consequently radiation exposure to patients is increasing. The study objectives were to examine the use of radiological investigations in the management of acute surgical patients and to assess whether a guideline-based radiation exposure risk/benefit analysis can aid in the choice of radiological investigation used. A prospective observational study was completed over a 12-week period from April to July 2008 for all acute surgical admissions. Data recorded included demographics, clinical presentation, differential diagnosis, investigations, surgical interventions, and final clinical outcome. The use of radiological investigative modalities as an adjunct to clinical assessment was then evaluated against The Royal College of Radiologists (RCR) guidelines. A total of 380 acute surgical admissions (M = 174, F = 185, children = 21) were assessed during the study period. Seven hundred thirty-four radiological investigations were performed with a mean of 1.93 investigations per patient. Based on the RCR guidelines, 680 (92.6%) radiological investigations were warranted and included 142 CT scans (19.3%), 129 chest X-rays (17.6%), and 85 abdominal X-rays (11.6%). Clinically, radiological imaging complemented surgical management in 326 patients (85.8%) and the management plan remained unchanged for the remaining 54 patients (14.2%). This accounted for an average radiation dose of 4.18 millisievert (mSv) per patient or 626 days of background radiation exposure. CT imaging was responsible for the majority of the radiation exposure, with a total of 1310 mSv (82.6%) of the total radiation exposure being attributed to CT imaging in 20.8% of acute admissions. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that 92.8% of the CT scans performed were appropriate. Radiation exposure was generally low for the majority of acute surgical admissions. However, it is recommended that CT imaging requests be evaluated carefully

  2. Cotton in Zambia: An Assessment of its Organization, Performance, Current Policy Initiatives, and Challenges for the Future

    OpenAIRE

    Tschirley, David L.; Zulu, Ballard; Shaffer, James D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper grows out of earlier work on cotton by the Food Security Research Project. It is directed towards policy makers and private stakeholders in Zambia’s cotton sector, and has four main purposes: (a) To provide a detailed descriptive overview of the organization of the sector and of the behavior of key public and private participants in the sector; (b) To assess cotton’s role in smallholder livelihood strategies, and its competitiveness at the farm level with a key alternative crop–mai...

  3. Regulatory impact assessment : future of UK's system for holding stocks of oil for use in the event of disruption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This consultation document focuses on the adaption of the United Kingdom government's system for holding emergency stocks of oil to ensure the compliance with international obligations and security of energy supply objectives. The background to the study is traced, and the rational for government intervention is discussed along with the current system which bases obligations on company sales into final consumption, and the urgent need for a new system. Consultation within government resulting in agreement that the system should continue to be based on company obligations and public consultations are discussed. Potential options are assessed and problems with continuing with the existing system based on company obligations are highlighted

  4. Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guiling

    2005-12-01

    This study examines the impact of greenhouse gas warming on soil moisture based on predictions of 15 global climate models by comparing the after-stabilization climate in the SRESA1b experiment with the pre-industrial control climate. The models are consistent in predicting summer dryness and winter wetness in only part of the northern middle and high latitudes. Slightly over half of the models predict year-round wetness in central Eurasia and/or year-round dryness in Siberia and mid-latitude Northeast Asia. One explanation is offered that relates such lack of seasonality to the carryover effect of soil moisture storage from season to season. In the tropics and subtropics, a decrease of soil moisture is the dominant response. The models are especially consistent in predicting drier soil over the southwest North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, Australia, and the South Africa in all seasons, and over much of the Amazon and West Africa in the June July August (JJA) season and the Asian monsoon region in the December January February (DJF) season. Since the only major areas of future wetness predicted with a high level of model consistency are part of the northern middle and high latitudes during the non-growing season, it is suggested that greenhouse gas warming will cause a worldwide agricultural drought. Over regions where there is considerable consistency among the analyzed models in predicting the sign of soil moisture changes, there is a wide range of magnitudes of the soil moisture response, indicating a high degree of model dependency in terrestrial hydrological sensitivity. A major part of the inter-model differences in the sensitivity of soil moisture response are attributable to differences in land surface parameterization.

  5. Oceanic influence on extreme rainfall trends in the north central coast of Venezuela: present and future climate assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lelys Guenni

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Extreme events are an important part of climate variability and their intensity and persistence are often modulated by large scale climatic patterns which might act as forcing drivers affecting their probability of occurrence. When the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA and the Equatorial Pacific (Ni\\~no 3 region sea surface temperature (SST anomalies are of opposite signs and the first one is positive while the second one is negative, the rainfall response is stronger in the northern coast of Venezuela as well as in the Pacific coast of Central America during the Nov-Feb period. The difference between these two SST anomaly time series (NTA-Ni\\~no3 is used in this analysis and it is called the Atlantic-Pacific Index or API. By fitting a dynamic generalized extreme value (GEV model to station based daily rainfall at different locations and to the Xie and Arkin dataset for the Vargas state, we found the API index to be an adequate index to explain the probabilistic nature of rainfall extremes in the northern Venezuelan coast for the months Nov-Feb. Dependence between the Atlantic-Pacific index and the probabilistic behavior of extreme rainfall was also explored for simulations from two global coupled General Circulation Models for the 20th century climate (20C3M experiment and the 21st century climate (SRES A2 experiment: the Echam5 model and the HadCM3 model. A significant dependence of extreme rainfall on the Atlantic-Pacific index is well described by the GEV dynamic model for the Echam5 20C3M experiment model outputs. When looking at future climates under the SRES A2 experiment, the dependence of extreme rainfall from the API index is still significant for the middle part of the 21st century (2046-2064, while this dependence fades off for the latest part of the century (2081-2099

  6. A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

    2017-12-01

    There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

  7. On Track to Become a Low Carbon Future City? First Findings of the Integrated Status Quo and Trends Assessment of the Pilot City of Wuxi in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Vallentin

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC project aims at facing a three dimensional challenge by developing an integrated city roadmap balancing: low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The paper gives an overview of the first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi—the Chinese pilot city for the LCFC project. As a first step, a detailed emission inventory following the IPCC guidelines for Wuxi has been carried out. In a second step, the future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2050 were simulated in a current policy scenario (CPS. In parallel, selected aspects of material and water flows for the energy and the building sector were analyzed and modeled. In addition, recent and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Based on these findings, nine key sectors with high relevance to the three dimensions could be identified. Although Wuxi’s government has started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that, for the shift towards a sustainable low carbon development, more ambitious steps need to be taken in order to overcome the challenges faced.

  8. Positive deviance as a novel tool in malaria control and elimination: methodology, qualitative assessment and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafique, Muhammad; Edwards, Hannah M; De Beyl, Celine Zegers; Thavrin, Bou Kheng; Min, Myo; Roca-Feltrer, Arantxa

    2016-02-16

    Positive deviance (PD) is an asset-based, community-driven approach to behaviour change that has successfully been applied to address many health and social problems. It is yet to have been assessed for malaria control but may represent a promising tool for malaria elimination given its suitability in targeting small and remote population groups, apparent sustainability and ability to instil a high amount of community mobilisation. Here, the PD methodology as applied to malaria is explained, with focus upon and qualitative assessment of a proof of concept study in Cambodia. Three villages in Battambang, northwestern Cambodia were selected for the intervention, with an estimated population of 5036 including both residents and migrant workers. In August 2010, field teams conducted a 1 week PD process to sensitise and mobilise the community, establish normative behaviours in relation to malaria control and prevention, identify positive deviant behaviours from within the community, and identify PD volunteers. Until March 2011, PD volunteers were supported by field teams via monthly meetings to conduct activities in their respective communities to increase practice of PD behaviours. In February 2012, 1 year following the end of external support, evaluative interviews were conducted with community members to qualitatively assess community acceptance and interpretation of the PD intervention, perceived behaviour changes, and perceived positive outcomes. Qualitative data from focus group discussions and in-depth interviews showed that the PD approach was well-accepted into the communities and created a strong sense of community empowerment. Positive behaviour change was linked to the PD intervention, including greater usage of nets by forest goers, and use of public health facilities for malaria diagnosis and treatment. One year following the end of external assistance, PD volunteers were still conducting activities in their respective communities. PD offers a promising

  9. Bridging the European Wind Energy Market and a Future Renewable Hydrogen-Inclusive Economy. A Dynamic Techno-economic Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, S.; Peteves, S.D.

    2006-01-01

    The study establishes the link between the growing wind market and the emerging hydrogen market of the European Union, in a so-called 'wind-hydrogen strategy'. It considers specifically the diversion of wind electricity, as a wind power control mechanism in high wind penetration situations, for the production of renewable electrolytic hydrogen - a potentially important component of a renewable hydrogen-inclusive economy. The analysis examines the long-term competitiveness of a wind-hydrogen strategy via cost-benefit assessment. It indicates the duration and extent to which (financial) support, if any, would need to be provided in support of such a strategy, and the influence over time of certain key factors on the outcome

  10. Land Use and Food Intake of Future Inhabitants: Outlining a Representative Individual of the Most Exposed Group for Dose Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saetre, Peter; Kautsky, Ulrik; Valentin, Jack; Lageraas, Per; Avila, Rodolfo

    2013-01-01

    The radiation doses to humans resulting from a potential release of radionuclides from a geological repository for long-lived waste are assessed over tens or even hundreds of thousands of years. Ingestion is expected to be the major exposure pathway, and the group with the highest exposures will be those that consume the most contaminated food. In this paper, we characterize the group of individuals with the highest exposures by considering the physical and biological characteristics of the contaminated area and human requirements for energy and nutrients. We then calculate intake rates based on land-use scenarios drawn from self-sustained communities spanning prehistoric times to an industrial-age agrarian culture. The approach is illustrated by simulating groundwater release of four radionuclides to an expected discharge area. We argue that the derived intake rates may serve as credible bounding cases when projected doses are evaluated for compliance with regulatory criteria

  11. Assessing Brain–Muscle Connectivity in Human Locomotion through Mobile Brain/Body Imaging: Opportunities, Pitfalls, and Future Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Gennaro

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of the cortical role during bipedalism has been a methodological challenge. While surface electroencephalography (EEG is capable of non-invasively measuring cortical activity during human locomotion, it is associated with movement artifacts obscuring cerebral sources of activity. Recently, statistical methods based on blind source separation revealed potential for resolving this issue, by segregating non-cerebral/artifactual from cerebral sources of activity. This step marked a new opportunity for the investigation of the brains’ role while moving and was tagged mobile brain/body imaging (MoBI. This methodology involves simultaneous mobile recording of brain activity with several other body behavioral variables (e.g., muscle activity and kinematics, through wireless recording wearable devices/sensors. Notably, several MoBI studies using EEG–EMG approaches recently showed that the brain is functionally connected to the muscles and active throughout the whole gait cycle and, thus, rejecting the long-lasting idea of a solely spinal-driven bipedalism. However, MoBI and brain/muscle connectivity assessments during human locomotion are still in their fledgling state of investigation. Mobile brain/body imaging approaches hint toward promising opportunities; however, there are some remaining pitfalls that need to be resolved before considering their routine clinical use. This article discusses several of these pitfalls and proposes research to address them. Examples relate to the validity, reliability, and reproducibility of this method in ecologically valid scenarios and in different populations. Furthermore, whether brain/muscle connectivity within the MoBI framework represents a potential biomarker in neuromuscular syndromes where gait disturbances are evident (e.g., age-related sarcopenia remains to be determined.

  12. Using the CLM Crop Model to assess the impacts of changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Geographic Distribution on Historical and Future Crop Yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P.

    2015-12-01

    Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate

  13. Current Assessment and Future Outlook for Water Resources Considering Climate Change and a Population Burst: A Case Study of Ciliwung River, Jakarta City, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Kumar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Modeling insecurity under future climate change and socio-economic development is indispensable for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This case study strives to assess the water quality and quantity status for both the present and the near future in the Ciliwung River basin inside the Jakarta Province under different scenarios using population growth with planned additional wastewater management infrastructure by 2030 as mentioned in the local master plan, and comparing the above conditions with the addition of the effects of climate change. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD, chemical oxygen demand (COD and nitrate (NO3, the three important indicators of aquatic ecosystem health, were simulated to assess river pollution. Simulation results suggest that water quality in year 2030 will further deteriorate compared to the base year 2000 due to population growth and climate change, even considering the planned wastewater management infrastructure. The magnitude of impact from population growth is far greater than that from climate change. Simulated values of NO3, BOD and COD ranged from 6.07 to 13.34 mg/L, 7.65 to 11.41 mg/L, and 20.16 to 51.01 mg/L, respectively. Almost all of the water quality parameters exceeded the safe limit suitable for a healthy aquatic system, especially for the year 2030. The situation of water quality is worse for the downstream sampling location because of the cumulative effect of transport of untreated pollutants coming from upstream, as well as local dumping. This result will be useful for local policy makers and stakeholders involved in the water sector to formulate strategic and adaptive policies and plan for the future. One of the potential policy interventions is to implement a national integrated sewerage and septage management program on a priority basis, considering various factors like population density and growth, and global changes for both short- and long-term measures.

  14. Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

    2014-08-19

    Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

  15. Energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treat, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    This book provides fifteen of the futures industry's leading authorities with broader background in both theory and practice of energy futures trading in this updated text. The authors review the history of the futures market and the fundamentals of trading, hedging, and technical analysis; then they update you with the newest trends in energy futures trading - natural gas futures, options, regulations, and new information services. The appendices outline examples of possible contracts and their construction

  16. Life cycle assessment of molten carbonate fuel cells: State of the art and strategies for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmeti, Andi; Santoni, Francesca; Della Pietra, Massimiliano; McPhail, Stephen J.

    2016-03-01

    This study aims to review and provide an up to date international life cycle thinking literature with particular emphasis on life cycle assessment (LCA), applied to Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells (MCFCs), a technology forcefully entering the field of decentralized heat and power generation. Critical environmental issues, comparison of results between studies and improvement strategies are analyzed and highlighted. The findings stress that MCFC environmental performance is heavily influenced by the current use of non-renewable energy and high material demand of rare minerals which generate high environmental burdens in the manufacturing stage, thereby confirming the prominent role of these processes in a comprehensive LCA study. The comparison of operational phases highlights that MCFCs are robust and able to compete with other mature technologies contributing substantially to airborne emissions reduction and promoting a switch to renewable fuels, however, further progress and market competitiveness urges adoption of an eco-efficiency philosophy to forge the link between environmental and economic concerns. Adopting a well-organized systematic research driven by life cycle models and eco-efficiency principles stakeholders will glean valuable information to make well balanced decisions for improving performance towards the concept 'producing more quality with less resources' and accelerate market penetration of the technology.

  17. Assessment of thermal-hydraulic aging characteristics of Wolsong-1 and aging predictions to ensure optimized future operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, H.; Hartmann, W.J.; Seo, H.B.

    2005-01-01

    'Full text:' All industrial plants undergo changes with time and nuclear plants are no exception. Wolsong-1 started its' commercial operation in 1983. Through more than 20 years of operation the plant has experienced aging behavior in many aspects. Specifically, aging of Primary Heat Transport System (PHTS), can affect fuel cooling characteristics. This reduces the margin to Onset of Intermittent Dryout (OID) of the CANDU fuel, a criterion used to conservatively prevent the possibility of fuel failure under nominal and accident scenarios. The power level associated with OID defines the Critical Channel Powers (CCP). In order to mitigate margin degradation Wolsong-1 had cleaned the primary side of all steam generators in March of 2003, reducing reactor inlet header temperature. However, even with this action, degradation of margin is continuing. To track and assess the current conditions of the primary heat transport system components, data showing aging effects are acquired and steady-state thermal-hydraulic models are developed. The resulting analysis allows for optimum safe and economic reactor operation. The following issues are explored specifically with respect to Wolsong-1 nuclear reactor operation. 1. Pressure tube creep measurement, prediction, and model development Radiation induced, increasing pressure tube diameters, specifically pressure tube diametral creep, cause more and more coolant to bypass the sub-channels of the fuel bundles, reducing margin to CCP. For Wolsong-1, pressure tubes were inspected in 1990, 1992, 1994, 2001 and 2004. Measurement in the nineties was done with the 'CIGAR' system and in the 21st century with the 'AFCIS' system. For each year's inspection, more than 12 channels are measured and some channels have been inspected in several years. The diameters of specific channels, repeatedly measured in more than three different years, allow an accurate diametral creep prediction. The initial manufacturing diameter and the aged, measured

  18. Assessing the Suitability of Future Multi- and Hyperspectral Satellite Systems for Mapping the Spatial Distribution of Norway Spruce Timber Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Nink

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The availability of accurate and timely information on timber volume is important for supporting operational forest management. One option is to combine statistical concepts (e.g., small area estimates with specifically designed terrestrial sampling strategies to provide estimations also on the level of administrative units such as forest districts. This may suffice for economic assessments, but still fails to provide spatially explicit information on the distribution of timber volume within these management units. This type of information, however, is needed for decision-makers to design and implement appropriate management operations. The German federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate is currently implementing an object-oriented database that will also allow the direct integration of Earth observation data products. This work analyzes the suitability of forthcoming multi- and hyperspectral satellite imaging systems for producing local distribution maps for timber volume of Norway spruce, one of the most economically important tree species. In combination with site-specific inventory data, fully processed hyperspectral data sets (HyMap were used to simulate datasets of the forthcoming EnMAP and Sentinel-2 systems to establish adequate models for estimating timber volume maps. The analysis included PLS regression and the k-NN method. Root Mean Square Errors between 21.6% and 26.5% were obtained, where k-NN performed slightly better than PLSR. It was concluded that the datasets of both simulated sensor systems fulfill accuracy requirements to support local forest management operations and could be used in synergy. Sentinel-2 can provide meaningful volume distribution maps in higher geometric resolution, while EnMAP, due to its hyperspectral coverage, can contribute complementary information, e.g., on biophysical conditions.

  19. Cost-benefit assessment of energy efficiency investments: Accounting for future resources, savings and risks in the Australian residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrissey, J.; Meyrick, B.; Sivaraman, D.; Horne, R.E.; Berry, M.

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on the impact of the discount rate on cost-benefit assessment of investment options for residential building efficiency. An integrated thermal modeling, life cycle costing approach is applied to an extensive sample of dominant house designs for Australian conditions. The relative significance of predicted thermal performance and the applied discount rate on the Present Value of energy savings from alternative investment scenarios is investigated. Costs and benefits are also evaluated at the economy-wide scale, including carbon pricing considerations, and for a test-case household faced with alternative investment options at the point of construction. The influence of the applied discount rate on produced cost-benefit calculations is investigated, as is the interaction between critical cost-benefit input parameters. Findings support that the discounting framework is the primary driver of difference in estimates about costs and benefits of higher standards of efficiency in the residential sector. Results demonstrate that agreement on a low discount rate based on sustainability principals would prioritise those projects with significant environmental benefits. - Highlights: ► High thermal efficiency is a key strategy to limit energy use in buildings. ► Integrated thermal modeling—life-cycle costing methods are applied to dominant house designs. ► The discounting framework is the primary driver of difference in observed costs. ► The selection of optimal performance investment options depends on the discount rate. ► Application of a discount rate of 3.5% or lower favours energy saving projects

  20. Isokinetic strength assessment offers limited predictive validity for detecting risk of future hamstring strain in sport: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Brady; Bourne, Matthew N; Pizzari, Tania

    2018-03-01

    To examine the value of isokinetic strength assessment for predicting risk of hamstring strain injury, and to direct future research into hamstring strain injuries. Systematic review. Database searches for Medline, CINAHL, Embase, AMED, AUSPORT, SPORTDiscus, PEDro and Cochrane Library from inception to April 2017. Manual reference checks, ahead-of-press and citation tracking. Prospective studies evaluating isokinetic hamstrings, quadriceps and hip extensor strength testing as a risk factor for occurrence of hamstring muscle strain. Independent search result screening. Risk of bias assessment by independent reviewers using Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Best evidence synthesis and meta-analyses of standardised mean difference (SMD). Twelve studies were included, capturing 508 hamstring strain injuries in 2912 athletes. Isokinetic knee flexor, knee extensor and hip extensor outputs were examined at angular velocities ranging 30-300°/s, concentric or eccentric, and relative (Nm/kg) or absolute (Nm) measures. Strength ratios ranged between 30°/s and 300°/s. Meta-analyses revealed a small, significant predictive effect for absolute (SMD=-0.16, P=0.04, 95% CI -0.31 to -0.01) and relative (SMD=-0.17, P=0.03, 95% CI -0.33 to -0.014) eccentric knee flexor strength (60°/s). No other testing speed or strength ratio showed statistical association. Best evidence synthesis found over half of all variables had moderate or strong evidence for no association with future hamstring injury. Despite an isolated finding for eccentric knee flexor strength at slow speeds, the role and application of isokinetic assessment for predicting hamstring strain risk should be reconsidered, particularly given costs and specialised training required. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  1. Searching for native tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domingos, Marisa; Bulbovas, Patricia; Camargo, Carla Z.S.; Aguiar-Silva, Cristiane; Brandão, Solange E.; Dafré-Martinelli, Marcelle; Dias, Ana Paula L.; Engela, Marcela R.G.S.; Gagliano, Janayne; Moura, Barbara B.; Alves, Edenise S.; Rinaldi, Mirian C.S.; Gomes, Eduardo P.C.; Furlan, Claudia M.; Figueiredo, Ana Maria G.

    2015-01-01

    This study summarizes the first effort to search for bioindicator tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of potential mixed pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil. Leaves of the three most abundant species inventoried in a phytosociological survey (Croton floribundus, Piptadenia gonoacantha and Astronium graveolens) were collected in four forest remnants during winter and summer (2012). Their potential bioindicator attributes were highlighted using a screening of morphological, chemical and biochemical markers. The leaf surface structure and/or epicuticular wax composition pointed the accumulator properties of C. floribundus and P. gonoacantha. C. floribundus is a candidate for assessing potential accumulation of Cu, Cd, Mn, Ni, S and Zn. P. gonoacantha is a candidate to monitor polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Increased levels of secondary metabolites and decreased antioxidant capacity in leaves of A. graveolens may support its value as a bioindicator for oxidative pollutants by visible dark stipplings. - Highlights: • We searched for tree species from Atlantic Forest for future air pollution monitoring in Brazil. • Croton floribundus, Astronium graveolens and Piptadenia gonoacantha were possible bioindicators. • P. gonoachanta was a potential bioindicator of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. • C. floribundus was a potential bioindicator of heavy metals and sulfur. • A. graveolens may be used for monitoring oxidative pollutants, due to its biochemical leaf traits. - Inherent characteristics of the most abundant native tree species were potential biomarkers for assessing pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil

  2. Futuring for Future Ready Librarians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Miguel A.

    2018-01-01

    Futurists and foresight professionals offer several guiding principles for thinking about the future. These principles can help people to think about the future and become more powerful players in shaping the preferred futures they want for themselves and their communities. The principles also fit in well as strategies to support the Future Ready…

  3. Assessing the Impact of Urbanization Using Remote Sensing On A Global Scale, Past Present And Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luvall, J. C.

    2016-12-01

    channel mid/thermal infrared instrument. These instruments build on a long heritage of NASA funded research using aircraft based urban remote sensing instruments to develop techniques for assessing the UHI. HyspIRI will provide the global datasets necessary to monitor and study the impacts of urbanization on a global scale.

  4. Quality and impact assessment in new geoscience communication : future perspectives through digital communication and Big Data exploration techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicari, Rosa; Schertzer, Daniel; Deutsch, Jean-Claude; Moilleron, Regis

    2015-04-01

    Since 1990s up to now, climate and environmental science communication has gradually become a priority of policy programmes, a consolidated subject of training and education, a developed and greatly expanded field of professional practices. However, in contrast to this very fast evolution there is presumably a deficit in terms of research and reflection on objective tools to assess the quality and impact of communication activities. The quality of communication in the field of science has become more and more challenging due to the fact that the role of traditional mediators (e.g. well reputed newspapers or broadcasters, science museums), that used to be considered quality guarantors, has now become marginal. Today, a new generation of communication professionals tend to be employed by research institutes to respond to a stronger request to develop accountable research projects, to increase transparency and trust and to disseminate and implementation of research findings. This research aims to understand how communication strategies, addressed to the general public, can optimise the impact of research findings in hydrology for resilient cities. The research will greatly benefit from the development of automated analysis of unstructured Big Data that allows the exploration of huge amounts of digital communication data: blogs, social networks postings, public speeches, press releases, publications, articles... Furthermore, these techniques facilitate the crossing of socio-economic and physical-environmental data and possibly lead to the identification of existing correlations. Case studies correspond to those of several research projects under the umbrella of the Chair "Hydrology for resilient cities" aimed to develop and test new solutions in urban hydrology that will contribute to the resilience of our cities to extreme weather. This research was initiated in the framework of the Interreg IVB project RAINGAIN and pursued in the project Blue Green Dream of the EU

  5. The future of population registers: linking routine health datasets to assess a population's current glycaemic status for quality improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Wing Cheuk; Jackson, Gary; Wright, Craig Shawe; Orr-Walker, Brandon; Drury, Paul L; Boswell, D Ross; Lee, Mildred Ai Wei; Papa, Dean; Jackson, Rod

    2014-04-28

    To determine the diabetes screening levels and known glycaemic status of all individuals by age, gender and ethnicity within a defined geographic location in a timely and consistent way to potentially facilitate systematic disease prevention and management. Retrospective observational study. Auckland region of New Zealand. 1 475 347 people who had utilised publicly funded health service in New Zealand and domicile in the Auckland region of New Zealand in 2010. The health service utilisation population was individually linked to a comprehensive regional laboratory repository dating back to 2004. The two outcomes measures were glycaemia-related blood testing coverage (glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting and random glucose and glucose tolerance tests), and the proportions and number of people with known dysglycaemia in 2010 using modified American Diabetes Association (ADA) and WHO criteria. Within the health service utilisation population, 792 560 people had had at least one glucose or HbA1c blood test in the previous 5.5 years. Overall, 81% of males (n=198 086) and 87% of females (n=128 982) in the recommended age groups for diabetes screening had a blood test to assess their glycaemic status. The estimated age-standardised prevalence of dysglycaemia was highest in people of Pacific Island ethnicity at 11.4% (95% CI 11.2% to 11.5%) for males and 11.6% (11.4% to 11.8%) for females, followed closely by people of Indian ethnicity at 10.8% (10.6% to 11.1%) and 9.3% (9.1% to 9.6%), respectively. Among the indigenous Maori population, the prevalence was 8.2% (7.9% to 8.4%) and 7% (6.8% to 7.2%), while for 'Others' (mainly Europeans) it was 3% (3% to 3.1%) and 2.2% (2.1% to 2.2%), respectively. We have demonstrated that the data linkage between a laboratory repository and national administrative datasets has the potential to provide a systematic and consistent individual level clinical information that is relevant to medical auditing for a large geographically defined

  6. Assessing the Impact of Asian Longhorned Beetle in Worcester, MA: Thermal Effects, Community Responses, and Future Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmes, Arthur Francis Marett

    Urban environments experience air, water, noise, and heat pollution as a consequence of their composition, structure, and function. These adverse environmental conditions, which have direct and indirect effects on human health and ecological stability, can be mitigated or partially offset by healthy and extensive urban forests. Additionally, urban trees provide a number of cultural, aesthetic, and property value benefits. However, to provide maximum ecosystem service benefits, an urban forest must be carefully planned and maintained, so that average tree lifespan is maximized and ecological vulnerability is minimized. Maximal urban forest resilience is best achieved via taxonomic and age-diversity, such that no one genus or age-cohort dominates. This diversity enhances overall urban forest resilience, which in turn facilitates maximum ecosystem service provision. The Asian Longhorned Beetle (ALB, Anoplophora glabripennis) infestation in Worcester, MA represents a case example of taxonomic monoculture vulnerability, but also an excellent opportunity to reinvest and diversify the urban forest. As a result of the ALB infestation, which was first documented in 2008, approximately 35,000 host trees were removed from residential and public property, substantially reducing urban tree canopy coverage and uncovering impervious surfaces. Chapter two quantifies this Urban Tree Canopy (UTC) loss, and shows that in loss areas Land Surface Temperature (LST) increases range from 1 - 6° C. The research investigates multi-scale effects of this relationship, particularly in the hard-hit Burncoat and Greendale neighborhoods of Worcester, MA. In response to the large quantity of UTC loss suffered due to ALB, the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation (DCR), the City of Worcester, and the Worcester Tree Initiative (WTI) have together planted over 30,000 trees, primarily via tree giveaway programs to local residents. Chapter three assesses the effectiveness of this

  7. Future-Oriented LCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Borup, Mads; Andersen, Per Dannemand

    2018-01-01

    LCA is often applied for decision-making that concerns actions reaching near or far into the future. However, traditional life cycle assessment methodology must be adjusted for the prospective and change-oriented purposes, but no standardised way of doing this has emerged yet. In this chapter some...... challenges are described and some learnings are derived. Many of the future-oriented LCAs published so far perform relatively short-term prediction of simple comparisons. But for more long-term time horizons foresight methods can be of help. Scenarios established by qualified experts about future...... technological and economic developments are indispensable in future technology assessments. The uncertainties in future-oriented LCAs are to a large extent qualitative and it is important to emphasise that LCA of future technologies will provide a set of answers and not ‘the’ answer....

  8. Future accelerators (?)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Womersley

    2003-08-21

    I describe the future accelerator facilities that are currently foreseen for electroweak scale physics, neutrino physics, and nuclear structure. I will explore the physics justification for these machines, and suggest how the case for future accelerators can be made.

  9. Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia;