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  1. Framingham risk score with cardiovascular events in chronic kidney disease.

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    Szu-Chia Chen

    Full Text Available The Framingham Risk Score (FRS was developed to predict coronary heart disease in various populations, and it tended to under-estimate the risk in chronic kidney disease (CKD patients. Our objectives were to determine whether FRS was associated with cardiovascular events, and to evaluate the role of new risk markers and echocardiographic parameters when they were added to a FRS model. This study enrolled 439 CKD patients. The FRS is used to identify individuals categorically as "low" (4.7 cm, left ventricular hypertrophy or left ventricular ejection fraction<50% to the FRS model significantly improves the predictive values for cardiovascular events. In CKD patients, "high" risk categorized by FRS predicts cardiovascular events. Novel biomarkers and echocardiographic parameters provide additional predictive values for cardiovascular events. Future study is needed to assess whether risk assessment enhanced by using these biomarkers and echocardiographic parameters might contribute to more effective prediction and better care for patients.

  2. High Framingham risk score decreases quality of life in adults

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    Christian Yosaputra

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors, such as diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and obesity tend to occur together in the general population. Increasing prevalence of multiple CVD risk factors has been related to increased risk of death from coronary heart disease and stroke. Studies have suggested that people with several risk factors of CVD may have impaired health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to assess the association of CVD risk factors with quality of life (QOL among adults aged 40 to 65 years. A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 220 subjects 40 - 65 years of age at a health center. The CVD risk factors were assessed using the Framingham risk score that is the standard instrument for assessment of the risk of a first cardiac event. The risk factors assessed were age, smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. QOL was assessed by means of the WHOQOL-BREF instrument that had been prevalidated. The results of the study showed that 28.2% of subjects were smokers, 56.4% had stage 1 hypertension, 42.8% high total cholesterol and 13.6% low HDL cholesterol. The high risk group amounted to 45.5% and 42.3% constitued an intermediate risk group. High CVD risk scores were significantly associated with a low QOL for all domains (physical, psychological, social and environment (p=0.000. Preventing or reducing the multiple CVD risk factors to improve QOL is necessary among adults.

  3. Metabolic syndrome and Framingham risk score in obese young adults

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    Felix F. Widjaja

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The increase number of the metabolic syndrome (MetS among young adults was mostly caused by obesity. MetS increases the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD which can be estimated by Framingham risk score (FRS. The study was aimed to know the prevalence of MetS and FRS in obese young adults and to associate them with the components of MetS. Methods: A total of 70 male and female students aged 18 to 25 years with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 in Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia were selected consecutively. The blood samples used to test fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, and triglyceride were examined in Department of Clinical Pathology, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital after fasting for 14 to 16 hours. International Diabetes Federation (IDF definition was used to diagnose MetS. Univariate and bivariate analysis were done. Results: The prevalence of MetS based on IDF definition was 18.6% among obese young adults. The most associated MetS components was hypertriglyceridemia (OR 12.13; 95% CI 2.92-50.46; p = 0.001, followed with high blood pressure (OR 9.33; 95% CI 2.26-38.56; p = 0.001, low-HDL (OR 8.33; 95% CI 2.17-32.05; p = 0.003, and impaired fasting glucose (p = 0.03. Four subjects had FRS ≥ 1% and 66 subjects had risk < 1%. Increased FRS was not associated with MetS (p = 0.154. There was no component of MetS associated with increased FRS. Conclusion: Prevalence of MetS in obese young adults was similar with obese children and adolescents. Although no association of MetS and FRS was found, they are significant predictors for CHD which should not be used separately. (Med J Indones. 2013;22:100-6Keywords: Abdominal obesity, Framingham risk score, metabolic syndrome, young adults

  4. Modified Framingham Risk Factor Score for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

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    Urowitz, Murray B; Ibañez, Dominique; Su, Jiandong; Gladman, Dafna D

    2016-05-01

    The traditional Framingham Risk Factor Score (FRS) underestimates the risk for coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed to determine whether an adjustment to the FRS would more accurately reflect the higher prevalence of CAD among patients with SLE. Patients with SLE without a previous history of CAD or diabetes followed regularly at the University of Toronto Lupus Clinic were included. A modified FRS (mFRS) was calculated by multiplying the items by 1.5, 2, 3, or 4. In the first part of the study, using one-third of all eligible patients, we evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of the FRS and the different multipliers for the mFRS. In the second part of the study, using the remaining 2/3 of the eligible patients, we compared the predictive ability of the FRS to the mFRS. In the third part of the study, we assessed the prediction for CAD in a time-dependent analysis of the FRS and mFRS. There were 905 women (89.3%) with a total of 95 CAD events included. In part 1, we determined that a multiplier of 2 provided the best combination of sensitivity and specificity. In part 2, 2.4% of the patients were classified as moderate/high risk based on the classic FRS and 17.3% using the 2FRS (the FRS with a multiplier of 2). In part 3, a time-dependent covariate analysis for the prediction of the first CAD event revealed an HR of 3.22 (p = 0.07) for the classic FRS and 4.37 (p mFRS in which each item is multiplied by 2 more accurately predicts CAD in patients with SLE.

  5. Stability of the Framingham Nutritional Risk Score and its component nutrients over 8 years: the Framingham Nutrition Studies.

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    Kimokoti, R W; Newby, P K; Gona, P; Zhu, L; Campbell, W R; D'Agostino, R B; Millen, B E

    2012-03-01

    Diet quality indices are increasingly used in nutrition epidemiology as dietary exposures in relation to health outcomes. However, literature on the long-term stability of these indices is limited. We aimed to assess the stability of the validated Framingham Nutritional Risk Score (FNRS) and its component nutrients over 8 years, as well as the validity of the follow-up FNRS. Framingham Offspring/Spouse Study women and men (n=1734) aged 22-76 years were evaluated over 8 years. Individuals' nutrient intake and nutritional risk scores were assessed using 3-day dietary records administered at baseline (1984-1988) and at follow-up (1992-1996). Agreement between baseline and follow-up FNRS and nutrient intakes was evaluated by Bland-Altman method; stability was assessed using intra-class correlation (ICC) and weighted Kappa statistics. The effect of diet quality (as assessed by the FNRS) on cardiometabolic risk factors was evaluated using analysis of covariance. Modest changes from baseline (15%) were observed in nutrient intake. The stability coefficients for the FNRS (ICC: women, 0.49; men, 0.46; P1 quartile. The FNRS was directly associated with body mass index in women (P<0.01) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol among both women (P<0.001) and men (P<0.01). The FNRS and its constituent nutrients remained relatively stable over 8 years of follow-up. The stability of diet quality has implications for prospective epidemiological investigations.

  6. Psoriasis and the Framingham risk score in a Danish hospital cohort

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    Gyldenløve, Mette; Jensen, Peter; Linneberg, Allan

    2014-01-01

    -2011. Median psoriasis area and severity index score was 5.8 (range 0.0-39.8), and 10% of the patients received systemic antipsoriatic treatment. Body mass index (26.2 vs. 25.2 kg/m(2) , P = 0.005), waist circumference (96.0 vs. 88.0 cm, P ...BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory skin disease, which is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to compare the Framingham risk score, a method to estimate coronary heart disease and prevalences of cardiovascular risk factors.......009) were significantly higher in patients with psoriasis. We found no significant differences in Framingham risk scores between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Patients from the hospital cohort had a higher prevalence of certain cardiovascular risk factors compared to individuals without psoriasis from...

  7. Relationship between framingham risk score and coronary artery calcium score in asymptomatic Korean individuals

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    Heo, So Young; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sub; Seong, Su Ok [Dept. of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Seonam University College of Medicine, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-02-15

    We explored the association between Framingham risk score (FRS) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in asymptomatic Korean individuals. We retrospectively analyzed 2216 participants who underwent routine health screening and CACS using the 64-slice multidetector computed tomography between January 2010 and June 2014. Relationship between CACS and FRS, and factors associated with discrepancy between CACS and FRS were analyzed. CACS and FRS were positively correlated (p < 0.0001). However, in 3.7% of participants with low coronary event risk and high CACS, age, male gender, smoker, hypertension, total cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and body mass index (BMI; ≥ 35) were associated with the discrepancy. In the diagnostic prediction model for discrepancy, the receiver operating characteristic curve including factors associated with FRS, diastolic blood pressure (≥ 75 mm Hg), diabetes mellitus, and BMI (≥ 35) showed that the area under the curve was 0.854 (95% confidence interval, 0.819–0.890), indicating good sensitivity. Diabetes mellitus or obesity (BMI ≥ 35) compensate for the weakness of FRS and may be potential indicators for application of CACS in asymptomatic Koreans with low coronary event risk.

  8. Risk of hypertension in Yozgat Province, Central Anatolia: application of Framingham Hypertension Prediction Risk Score.

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    Kilic, M; Ede, H; Kilic, A I

    2016-07-10

    The aim of this cross-sectional study was to estimate the risk of hypertension in 1106 Caucasian individuals aged 20-69 years in Yozgat Province, using the Framingham Hypertension Risk Prediction Score (FHRPS). According to FHRPS, average risk of developing hypertension over 4 years was 6.2%. The participants were classified into low- (10%) risk groups. The percentage of participants that fell into these groups was 59.4%, 19.8% and 20.8% respectively. The proportion of participants in the high-risk group was similar to the 4-year incidence of hypertension (21.3%) in the Turkish population. Regression analysis showed that high salt consumption and low educational level significantly increased the risk of hypertension. Economic level, fat consumption, life satisfaction, physical activity, and fruit and vegetable consumption were not correlated with risk of hypertension. This study shows that FHRPS can also be used for predicting risk of hypertension in Central Anatolia.

  9. Adding multiple risk factors improves Framingham coronary heart disease risk scores.

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    Hu, Guizhou; Root, Martin; Duncan, Ashlee W

    2014-01-01

    Since the introduction of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), numerous versions of coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction models have claimed improvement over the FRS. Tzoulaki et al challenged the validity of these claims by illustrating methodology deficiencies among the studies. However, the question remains: Is it possible to create a new CHD model that is better than FRS while overcoming the noted deficiencies? To address this, a new CHD prediction model was developed by integrating additional risk factors, using a novel modeling process. Using the National Health Nutritional Examination Survey III data set with CHD-specific mortality outcomes and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities data set with CHD incidence outcomes, two FRSs (FRSv1 from 1998 and FRSv2 from National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III), along with an additional risk score in which the high density lipoprotein (HDL) component of FRSv1 was ignored (FRSHDL), were compared with a new CHD model (NEW-CHD). This new model contains seven elements: the original Framingham equation, FRSv1, and six additional risk factors. Discrimination, calibration, and reclassification improvements all were assessed among models. Discrimination was improved for NEW-CHD in both cohorts when compared with FRSv1 and FRSv2 (Prisk assessment when compared with the FRSs, comparable to the improvement of adding HDL to the FRS.

  10. Framingham Risk Score as a Prognostic Predictor of Sudden Sensorineural Hearing Loss: A Preliminary Study.

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    Chang, Young-Soo; Choi, Ji Eun; Ahn, Jungmin; Ryu, Nam-Gyu; Moon, Il Joon; Hong, Sung Hwa; Cho, Yang-Sun; Chung, Won-Ho

    2017-05-01

    Predicting the prognosis of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSHL) remains challenging. This investigation aimed to apply Framingham Risk Scores (FRS) to assess the combination of prognostic factors following ISSHL and investigate the predictive role of FRS in patients with multiple comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia. Retrospective study. Twenty-one patients presenting with unilateral idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss and multiple comorbidities were surveyed. Framingham Risk Score was calculated, and patients were assigned into high-risk (FRS ≥20%) and low-risk (FRS hearing outcomes following established criteria were investigated. All patients were treated with the same protocol of oral methylprednisolone. Overall successful recovery rate (complete + marked recovery) was 23.81%. The mean PTA threshold of the low-risk group showed significant improvement (mean PTA ± standard error, SE: pretreatment, 73.23 ± 11.80; posttreatment, 54.89 ± 10.25, P = .002), while the high-risk group did not show significant improvement in mean PTA threshold (mean PTA ± SE: pretreatment, 71.94 ± 11.77; posttreatment, 68.89 ± 12.81, P = .73). Framingham Risk Scores may be useful in predicting outcomes for ISSHL patients with multiple comorbidities.

  11. Assessing Framingham cardiovascular risk scores in subjects with diabetes and their correlation with diabetic retinopathy

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    Deepali R Damkondwar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To study the Framingham cardiovascular risk assessment scores in subjects with diabetes and their association with diabetic retinopathy in subjects with diabetes. Materials and Methods: In this population-based prospective study, subjects with diabetes were recruited (n=1248; age ≥40 years. The Framingham cardiovascular risk scores were calculated for 1248 subjects with type 2 diabetes. The scores were classified as high risk (>10%, and low risk (<10%. Results: Out of the 1248 subjects, 830 (66.5% patients had a low risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD in 10 years and 418 (33.5% had a high risk of developing CVD in 10 years. The risk of developing CVD was more in males than females (56.8% vs. 7% The prevalence of both diabetic retinopathy and sight-threatening retinopathy was more in the high-risk group (21% and 4.5%, respectively. The risk factors for developing diabetic retinopathy were similar in both the groups (low vs. high - duration of diabetes (OR 1.14 vs. 1.08, higher HbA1c (OR 1.24 vs. 1.22, presence of macro- and microalbuminuria (OR 10.17 vs. 6.12 for macro-albuminuria and use of insulin (OR 2.06 vs. 4.38. The additional risk factors in the high-risk group were presence of anemia (OR 2.65 and higher serum high density lipoprotein (HDL cholesterol (OR 1.05. Conclusion: Framingham risk scoring, a global risk assessment tool to predict the 10-year risk of developing CVD, can also predict the occurrence and type of diabetic retinopathy. Those patients with high CVD scores should be followed up more frequently and treated adequately. This also warrants good interaction between the treating physician/cardiologist and the ophthalmologist.

  12. HIV infection does not contribute to increased cardiovascular risk as assessed by Framingham risk score

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    I Ramsay

    2012-11-01

    significant predictors. The overall mean cfPWV for the HIV cohort (n=47 was 9.09±2.13 m/s compared to 11.95±2.37 m/s in the control group (n=46(p<0.01. HIV infection does not contribute to increased cardiovascular risk as assessed by Framingham risk score or carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity. This may be due to good control of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and a healthy lifestyle in this cohort.

  13. Global cardiovascular risk stratification: comparison of the Framingham method with the SCORE method in the Mexican population.

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    Alcocer, Luis Antonio; Lozada, Osvaldo; Fanghänel, Guillermo; Sánchez-Reyes, Leticia; Campos-Franco, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    In the Mexican population we are unaware if the Framingham model is a better system than the SCORE system for stratifying cardiovascular risk. The present study was conducted to compare risk stratification with the Framingham tables using the same procedure but using the SCORE, with the aim of recommending the use of the most appropriate method. We analyzed a database of apparently healthy workers from the Mexico City General Hospital included in the study group "PRIT" (Prevalencia de Factores de Riesgo de Infarto del Miocardio en Trabajadores del Hospital General de México) and we calculated the risk in each simultaneously with the Framingham method and the SCORE method. It was possible to perform risk calculation with both methods in 1990 subjects from a total of 5803 PRITHGM study participants. When using the SCORE method, we stratified 1853 patients into low risk, 133 into medium risk and 4 into high risk. The Framingham method qualified 1586 subjects as low risk, 268 as medium risk and 130 as high risk. Concordance between scales to classify both patients according to the same risk was 98% in those classified as low risk, 19.4% among those classified as intermediate risk and only 3% in those classified as high risk. According to our results, it seems more appropriate in our country to recommend the Framingham model for calculating cardiovascular risk due to the fact that the SCORE model underestimated risk.

  14. Framingham coronary heart disease risk score can be predicted from structural brain images in elderly subjects.

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    Jane Maryam Rondina

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent literature has presented evidence that cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF play an important role on cognitive performance in elderly individuals, both those who are asymptomatic and those who suffer from symptoms of neurodegenerative disorders. Findings from studies applying neuroimaging methods have increasingly reinforced such notion. Studies addressing the impact of CVRF on brain anatomy changes have gained increasing importance, as recent papers have reported gray matter loss predominantly in regions traditionally affected in Alzheimer’s disease (AD and vascular dementia in the presence of a high degree of cardiovascular risk. In the present paper, we explore the association between CVRF and brain changes using pattern recognition techniques applied to structural MRI and the Framingham score (a composite measure of cardiovascular risk largely used in epidemiological studies in a sample of healthy elderly individuals. We aim to answer the following questions: Is it possible to decode (i.e., to learn information regarding cardiovascular risk from structural brain images enabling individual predictions? Among clinical measures comprising the Framingham score, are there particular risk factors that stand as more predictable from patterns of brain changes? Our main findings are threefold: i we verified that structural changes in spatially distributed patterns in the brain enable statistically significant prediction of Framingham scores. This result is still significant when controlling for the presence of the APOE 4 allele (an important genetic risk factor for both AD and cardiovascular disease. ii When considering each risk factor singly, we found different levels of correlation between real and predicted factors; however, single factors were not significantly predictable from brain images when considering APOE4 allele presence as covariate. iii We found important gender differences, and the possible causes of that finding are discussed.

  15. Adding multiple risk factors improves Framingham coronary heart disease risk scores

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    Hu G

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Guizhou Hu,1 Martin Root,2 Ashlee W Duncan1 1BioSignia, Inc., Durham, NC, USA; 2Department of Nutrition and Health Care Management, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC, USA Purpose: Since the introduction of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS, numerous versions of coronary heart disease (CHD prediction models have claimed improvement over the FRS. Tzoulaki et al challenged the validity of these claims by illustrating methodology deficiencies among the studies. However, the question remains: Is it possible to create a new CHD model that is better than FRS while overcoming the noted deficiencies? To address this, a new CHD prediction model was developed by integrating additional risk factors, using a novel modeling process. Methods: Using the National Health Nutritional Examination Survey III data set with CHD-specific mortality outcomes and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities data set with CHD incidence outcomes, two FRSs (FRSv1 from 1998 and FRSv2 from National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III, along with an additional risk score in which the high density lipoprotein (HDL component of FRSv1 was ignored (FRSHDL, were compared with a new CHD model (NEW-CHD. This new model contains seven elements: the original Framingham equation, FRSv1, and six additional risk factors. Discrimination, calibration, and reclassification improvements all were assessed among models. Results: Discrimination was improved for NEW-CHD in both cohorts when compared with FRSv1 and FRSv2 (P<0.05 and was similar in magnitude to the improvement of FRSv1 over FRSHDL. NEW-CHD had a similar calibration to FRSv2 and was improved over FRSv1. Net reclassification for NEW-CHD was substantially improved over both FRSv1 and FRSv2, for both cohorts, and was similar in magnitude to the improvement of FRSv1 over FRSHDL. Conclusion: While overcoming several methodology deficiencies reported by earlier authors, the NEW-CHD model improved CHD risk assessment when

  16. Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults.

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    Nicolas Rodondi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS, directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS. METHODS: Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization. RESULTS: During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS. CONCLUSIONS: The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.

  17. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

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    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo, E-mail: anamariafeoli@hotmail.com [Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

    2014-04-15

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  18. Relationship between sleep duration and Framingham cardiovascular risk score and prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Koreans.

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    Im, Eui; Kim, Gwang-Sil

    2017-09-01

    Studies have shown sleep duration to be related to the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and hypertension. However, whether sleep duration is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and the prevalence of CVD irrespective of conventional CV-risk factor, such as diabetes mellitus, obesity, and metabolic syndrome, has not been well established for the Korean population.A total of 23,878 individuals aged 18 years or older from the 2007-2010 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed. We evaluated the relationship between sleep duration and CV-event risk using the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (FRS; ≥10% or ≥20%) and the prevalence of CVD.After adjusting for traditional risk factors of CVD, a short sleep duration (≤5 hours) yielded odds ratios (OR) of 1.344 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.200-1.505) for intermediate to high risk and 1.357 (95% CI, 1.140-1.614) for high risk. A long sleep duration (≥9 hours) was also associated with both intermediate to high (OR 1.142, 95% CI 1.011-1.322) and high cardiovascular FRS (OR 1.276, 95% CI 1.118-1.457).Both short and long sleep durations were related with high CVD risk, irrespective of established CVD risk, and a short sleep duration was associated with a higher prevalence of CVD than an optimal or long sleep duration.

  19. The framingham risk score, diet, and inflammatory markers in Korean men with metabolic syndrome.

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    Sohn, Cheongmin; Kim, Juyong; Bae, Wookyung

    2012-06-01

    The Framingham risk score (FRS) has been used to assess the risk of a cardiovascular event and to identify patients for risk factor modifications. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship of the FRS with dietary intake and inflammatory biomarkers. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 180 men (49.2 ± 10.2 years) with MS. Serum levels of high sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and adiponectin were examined. Participants were asked to complete the food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) using the previous 1 year as a reference point. The absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk percentage over 10 years was calculated to estimate the FRS, which was classified as low risk (risk (10-20%), and high risk (> 20%). Mean intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids was lower in subjects who had > 20% FRS than in subjects who had Nutritional Quality of protein, phosphorus, iron, vitamin A, vitamin B(1), niacin, vitamin B(6), and vitamin C were observed between the > 20% FRS group and the 20% FRS (0.91 ± 0.26 vs. 1.48 ± 033 vs. 2.72 ± 0.57 pg/mL, respectively; P risk group was inferior to that in the lower risk group and that dietary fat intake and IL-6 were associated with FRS and MS in Korean men.

  20. Cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population with use of suPAR, CRP, and Framingham Risk Score

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    Lyngbæk, Stig; Marott, Jacob L; Sehestedt, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The inflammatory biomarkers soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) independently predict cardiovascular disease (CVD). The prognostic implications of suPAR and CRP combined with Framingham Risk Score (FRS) have not been determined. METHODS...... for men (p=0.034) and borderline significant for women (p=0.054), while the integrated discrimination improvement was highly significant (P≤0.001) for both genders. CONCLUSIONS: suPAR provides prognostic information of CVD risk beyond FRS and improves risk prediction substantially when combined with CRP...

  1. Dietary Calcium and Framingham Risk Score in Vitamin D Deficient Male (KNHANES 2009-2011)

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    Choi, Sung-Jin; Yeum, Kyung-Jin; Park, Soo-Jung; Choi, Beomhee

    2015-01-01

    Purpose The association between excess calcium intake and cardiovascular mortality has already been reported. In the present study, we investigated the relation between dietary calcium intake and Framingham Risk Score (FRS) according to serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] status. Materials and Methods A total of 7809 subjects (3452 males and 4357 female) aged over 40 years were selected for this cross-sectional study from data obtained from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2008-2011). Daily dietary calcium intake was categorized into 1200 mg/day and serum 25(OH)D concentration classified into 75 mmol/L. The FRS was compared by the daily dietary calcium intake categories according to 25(OH)D concentration after adjustment with relevant variables in both genders. Results Higher FRS was observed in males with both 1200 mg of dietary calcium intake and females with 1200 mg of dietary calcium intake groups in both genders after adjustments for relevant variables. FRS was significantly higher in the group with >1200 mg of dietary calcium intake and serum 25(OH)D 1200 mg/day) dietary calcium intake were related with higher FRS in both genders. In particular, higher FRS was observed in the excess (>1200 mg/day) dietary calcium intake male group under vitamin D deficiency (<50 nmol/L). PMID:25837195

  2. Changes in subclinical organ damage vs. in Framingham risk score for assessing cardiovascular risk reduction during continued antihypertensive treatment: a LIFE substudy

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    Olsen, Michael H; Wachtell, Kristian; Ibsen, Hans;

    2011-01-01

    To investigate whether in-treatment measurements of subclinical organ damage (SOD) assessed by elevated urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) or electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy improved the prediction of the composite cardiovascular endpoint of cardiovascular death, nonfatal...... myocardial infarction and stroke beyond in-treatment Framingham risk score (FRS)....

  3. Framingham Risk Score for Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases: A Population-Based Study from Southern Europe

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    Artigao-Rodenas, Luis M.; Carbayo-Herencia, Julio A.; Divisón-Garrote, Juan A.; Gil-Guillén, Vicente F.; Massó-Orozco, Javier; Simarro-Rueda, Marta; Molina-Escribano, Francisca; Sanchis, Carlos; Carrión-Valero, Lucinio; López de Coca, Enrique; Caldevilla, David; López-Abril, Juan; Carratalá-Munuera, Concepción; Lopez-Pineda, Adriana

    2013-01-01

    Background The question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking), prediction of overall cardiovascular diseases and incorporating the concept of vascular age. The objective of this study was to apply this new function in a cohort of the general non Anglo-Saxon population, with a 10-year follow-up to determine its validity. Methods The cohort was studied in 1992-94 and again in 2004-06. The sample comprised 959 randomly-selected persons, aged 30-74 years, who were representative of the population of Albacete, Spain. At the first examination cycle, needed data for the new function were collected and at the second examination, data on all events were recorded during the follow-up period. Discrimination was studied with ROC curves. Comparisons of prediction models and reality in tertiles (Hosmer-Lemeshow) were performed, and the individual survival functions were calculated. Results The mean risks for women and men, respectively, were 11.3% and 19.7% and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.789 (95%CI, 0.716-0.863) and 0.780 (95%CI, 0.713-0.847) (P<0.001, both). Cardiovascular disease events occurred in the top risk tertiles. Of note were the negative predictive values in both sexes, and a good specificity in women (85.6%) and sensitivity in men (79.1%) when their risk for cardiovascular disease was high. This model overestimates the risk in older women and in middle-aged men. The cumulative probability of individual survival by tertiles was significant in both sexes (P<0.001). Conclusions The results support the proposal for “reclassification” of Framingham. This study, with a few exceptions, passed the test of discrimination and calibration in a random sample of the general population from southern Europe. PMID:24039972

  4. THE IMPACT OF SEVERITY OF DIABETIC RETINOPATHY IN CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT USING FRAMINGHAM RISK SCORE - A PILOT STUDY

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    Nidhi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Diabetic retinopathy (DR is the most common micro vascular complications of diabetes, estimated to affect approximately 100 million people worldwide, while cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death in individuals with type II diabetes. There is limited Indian data reporting the association of Diabetic retinopathy and its severity with CVD. AIM : To study the relation between the severity of DR and risk of CVD in cen tral Indian subjects. MATERIALS AND METHODS : The subjects consisted of 50 patients with Diabetes mellitus type II having varying grades of diabetic retinopathy attending eye OPD of a tertiary care hospital in central India. 10 year risk of developing CVD was estimated using the Framingham Risk Score. RESULTS : The number of subjects with an increased risk of developing CVD increased with advancing age (28.57% in 40 - 49 years to 61 .53% in > 60 years age group. The risk of CVD was slightly more in males (55. 55% compared to females (43.47%. Out of the 30 patients having sight threatening diabetic retinopathy, 13 had low risk of developing CVD while 17 had high risk of developing CVD. The prevalence of sight threatening retinopathy was more in the high risk group (56.67% when compared to the low - risk group (40%. DISCUSSION : We found that more subjects having high risk of developing CVD had sight - threatening DR compared to those having low risk. CONCLUSION : Diabetic retinopathy may contribute to CVD risk in Indian population too. A careful cardiovascular assessment and follow - up may be required in individuals with diabetic retinopathy, using a larger sample size

  5. Association between Knee Osteoarthritis, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, and the Framingham Risk Score in South Koreans: A Cross-Sectional Study

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    Kim, Ho Sun; Shin, Joon-Shik; Lee, Jinho; Lee, Yoon Jae; Kim, Me-riong; Bae, Young-Hyeon; Park, Ki Byung; Lee, Eun-Jung; Kim, Joo-Hee

    2016-01-01

    Background Osteoarthritis is a significant burden on personal health and for social cost, and its prevalence is rising. Recent research has revealed an association between osteoarthritis and cardiovascular disease, and this study uses the Framingham risk score (FRS), which is widely used as a composite index of cardiovascular risk factors, to investigate the association between osteoarthritis and various cardiovascular risk factors. Methods A total 9,514 participants aged 50 years or older who received knee X-ray diagnosis of the 5th Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (total surveyees = 24,173) released by the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was included for analysis. Knee osteoarthritis patients were defined as participants with K-L grade ≥2 on knee X-ray regardless of knee pain. The association between major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol, and smoking habits), FRS, and knee osteoarthritis was analyzed, adjusting for various covariates. Results Prevalence of knee osteoarthritis in Koreans aged ≥50 years was 36.6%, and higher in women (men: 24.9%, women: 45.4%). Prevalence of knee osteoarthritis in participants with hypertension was significantly higher than those without hypertension (fully adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–1.48). Knee osteoarthritis prevalence was also higher in participants with impaired fasting glucose or diabetes than those without (age, sex adjusted OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.00–1.41). Also, OR values increased statistically significantly with FRS as a continuous variable (fully adjusted OR 1.007; 95% CI 1.00–1.01). Conclusions Prevalence of knee osteoarthritis was associated with hypertension and diabetes, which are major cardiovascular risk factors, and the FRS. Further studies on FRS pertaining to its relationship with osteoarthritis are warranted. PMID:27764239

  6. [Carotid intima-media thickness distribution according to the stratification of cardiovascular risk by means of Framingham-REGICOR and score function charts].

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    Hermida-Ameijeiras, Á; López-Paz, J E; Riveiro-Cruz, M A; Calvo-Gómez, C

    2016-01-01

    Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) has been suggested as a further tool for risk function charts. The aim of this study was to describethe relationship between cIMT and cardiovascular risk (CVR) estimation according to Framingham-REGICOR and SCORE equations. Observational, cross-sectional cohort study from 362 hypertensive subjects. Demographic and clinical information were collected as well as laboratory, ultrasonographic and CVR estimation by the Framingham-REGICOR and SCORE functions. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software (version 20,0). To analyze the data, statistical tests such as Chi-square, T-test, ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used. According to both functions, differences on mean cIMT were found between low CVR group and intermediate to high groups. No differences were found between intermediate and high risk groups (cIMT: 0,73mm low risk patients vs. 0,89 or 0,88mm respectively according to SCORE function and cIMT: 0,73 vs. 0,85 or 0,87mm respectively according to Framingham-REGICOR function). cIMT correlated positively with CVR estimation according to both SCORE (r=0,421; P<.01), and Framingham-REGICOR functions (r=0,363; P<.01). cIMT correlates positively with CVR estimated by SCORE and Framingham-REGICOR functions. cIMT in those subjects at intermediate risk is similar to those at high risk. Our findings highlight the importance of carotid ultrasound in identifying silent target-organ damage in those patients at intermediate CVR. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. Activated TLR signaling in atherosclerosis among women with lower Framingham risk score: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

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    Chiang-Ching Huang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD. Traditional risk factors can be used to identify individuals at high risk for developing CVD and are generally associated with the extent of atherosclerosis; however, substantial numbers of individuals at low or intermediate risk still develop atherosclerosis. RESULTS: A case-control study was performed using microarray gene expression profiling of peripheral blood from 119 healthy women in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort aged 50 or above. All participants had low (100 and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT >1.0 mm, whereas controls (N = 71 had CAC<10 and IMT <0.65 mm. We identified two major expression profiles significantly associated with significant atherosclerosis (odds ratio 4.85; P<0.001; among those with Framingham risk score <10%, the odds ratio was 5.30 (P<0.001. Ontology analysis of the gene signature reveals activation of a major innate immune pathway, toll-like receptors and IL-1R signaling, in individuals with significant atherosclerosis. CONCLUSION: Gene expression profiles of peripheral blood may be a useful tool to identify individuals with significant burden of atherosclerosis, even among those with low predicted risk by clinical factors. Furthermore, our data suggest an intimate connection between atherosclerosis and the innate immune system and inflammation via TLR signaling in lower risk individuals.

  8. Women Up, Men Down: The Clinical Impact of Replacing the Framingham Risk Score with the Reynolds Risk Score in the United States Population

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    Tattersall, Matthew C.; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Karmali, Kunal N.; Keevil, Jon G.

    2012-01-01

    Background The Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) is one alternative to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) for cardiovascular risk assessment. The Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) integrated the FRS a decade ago, but with the anticipated release of ATP IV, it remains uncertain how and which risk models will be integrated into the recommendations. We sought to define the effects in the United States population of a transition from the FRS to the RRS for cardiovascular risk assessment. Methods Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, we assessed FRS and RRS in 2,502 subjects representing approximately 53.6 Million (M) men (ages 50–79) and women (ages 45–79), without cardiovascular disease or diabetes. We calculated the proportion reclassified by RRS and the subset whose LDL-C goal achievement changed. Results Compared to FRS, the RRS assigns a higher risk category to 13.9% of women and 9.1% of men while assigning a lower risk to 35.7% of men and 2% of women. Overall, 4.7% of women and 1.1% of men fail to meet newly intensified LDL-C goals using the RRS. Conversely, 10.5% of men and 0.6% of women now meet LDL-C goal using RRS when they had not by FRS. Conclusion In the U.S. population the RRS assigns a new risk category for one in six women and four of nine men. In general, women increase while men decrease risk. In conclusion, adopting the RRS for the 53.6 million eligible U.S. adults would result in intensification of clinical management in 1.6 M additional women and 2.10 M fewer men. PMID:22984495

  9. Women up, men down: the clinical impact of replacing the Framingham Risk Score with the Reynolds Risk Score in the United States population.

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    Matthew C Tattersall

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Reynolds Risk Score (RRS is one alternative to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS for cardiovascular risk assessment. The Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III integrated the FRS a decade ago, but with the anticipated release of ATP IV, it remains uncertain how and which risk models will be integrated into the recommendations. We sought to define the effects in the United States population of a transition from the FRS to the RRS for cardiovascular risk assessment. METHODS: Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, we assessed FRS and RRS in 2,502 subjects representing approximately 53.6 Million (M men (ages 50-79 and women (ages 45-79, without cardiovascular disease or diabetes. We calculated the proportion reclassified by RRS and the subset whose LDL-C goal achievement changed. RESULTS: Compared to FRS, the RRS assigns a higher risk category to 13.9% of women and 9.1% of men while assigning a lower risk to 35.7% of men and 2% of women. Overall, 4.7% of women and 1.1% of men fail to meet newly intensified LDL-C goals using the RRS. Conversely, 10.5% of men and 0.6% of women now meet LDL-C goal using RRS when they had not by FRS. CONCLUSION: In the U.S. population the RRS assigns a new risk category for one in six women and four of nine men. In general, women increase while men decrease risk. In conclusion, adopting the RRS for the 53.6 million eligible U.S. adults would result in intensification of clinical management in 1.6 M additional women and 2.10 M fewer men.

  10. High-resolution computed tomography in patients with atypical 'cardiac' chest pain: a study investigating patients at 10-year cardiovascular risks defined by the Framingham and PROCAM scores

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Choon Kiat ANG; Kui Hian SIM; Alan Yean Yip FONG; Sze Piaw CHIN; Tiong Kiam ONG; Seyfarth M Tobias; Wei Ling CHAN; Chee Khoon LIEW; Rapaee ANNUAR; Houng Bang LIEW

    2006-01-01

    Background and objective Atypical 'cardiac' chest pain (ACCP) is not usually caused by myocardial ischaemia. Current noninvasive investigations for these symptoms are not yet as accurate as invasive coronary angiography. The latest 64-row multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) technology is non-invasive, has high specificity and negative predictive values for the detection of significant coronary disease. Our aim was to investigate if this modality can provide more information in the assessment of outpatients with ACCP in addition to established cardiovascular risk scores. Methods Seventy consecutive patients presenting to the outpatient clinic with ACCP underwent 64-row MDCT scan of the coronary arteries. They were categorized into low, medium or high risk groups based upon the Framingham and PROCAM scores. We defined a clinically abnormal MDCT scan as coronary stenosis =50% or calcium score >400 Agatston. Results Fifty-three (75.7%) patients did not have clinically abnormal scans. Framingham score classified 43 patients as low-risk while PROCAM classified 59 patients as low-risk. MDCT scans were abnormal for 18.6% and 22.0% of the respective low-risk group of patients. For patients with medium-to-high risk, 33.3% and 36.4% of Framingham and PROCAM patient groups respectively had abnormal MDCT scans. Conclusion MDCT adds valuable information in the assessment of patients with ACCP by identifying a significant proportion of patients categorized as low-risk to have underlying significant coronary stenosis and coronary calcification by established cardiovascular risk scores.

  11. Framingham Risk Scores for coronary heart disease in a cohort of Saudi Arabian men and women with spinal cord injury.

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    Hussain, Amjad; Qureshi, Ahmed Zaheer; Ayaz, Saeed Bin; Rathore, Farooq Azam

    2016-06-01

    People with spinal cord injury (SCI) are at increased risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD). This study aimed at predicting CHD risk in a cohort of Saudi patients with SCI in comparison with patients without SCI and to correlate different demographic and clinical factors with Framingham Risk Score (FRS) in SCI patients. The study was conducted at the rehabilitation and the main hospitals of King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; on sixty patients with SCI and sixty controls of age ≥20 years. FRS was calculated on a web-based calculator. For the SCI group, sub-groups were made for statistical analysis based on gender, cigarette smoking, neurological level and completeness of injury. The mean FRS for the SCI group (2 ± 7.9) was significantly higher (P Saudi patients with SCI had a higher FRS as compared to controls, however, majority had a low risk of developing CHD in next 10 years. The age, SBP and total cholesterol surfaced as positive predictors of CHD in SCI patients. Time since SCI, smoking, and neurological level or completeness of injury did not influence the resultant FRS and thus the development of CHD.

  12. Milk Consumption and Framingham Risk Score: Analysis of the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data (2008-2011).

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    Joo, Nam Seok; Yang, Sung Won; Park, Soo Jung; Choi, Sung Jin; Song, Byeng Chun; Yeum, Kyung Jin

    2016-01-01

    The benefit of milk intake remains controversial. The association between milk consumption and Framingham Risk Score (FRS) in a population consuming relatively low amounts of dairy products is undetermined. A total of 13736 adults (5718 male and 8018 female) aged 20-80 years from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2008-2011) were divided into groups according to milk consumption (rarely, monthly, weekly, and daily) and compared according to FRS after relevant variable adjustments. The mean FRS in males and females were 6.53 and 5.74, respectively. Males who consumed milk daily (15.9%) had a significantly lower FRS than males having milk rarely (31.6%) or monthly (17.4%; p=0.007). Females who consumed milk daily (22.3%) also had significantly lower FRS than rarely (29.8%), monthly (13.8%), or weekly (34%; p=0.001) consumers. In particular, males ≥60 years old who consumed milk daily had a significantly lower FRS than males who consumed less milk (prisk for cardiovascular disease.

  13. Framingham Risk Score underestimates cardiovascular disease risk in severe psoriatic patients: implications in cardiovascular risk factors management and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Tiago; Sales, Rita; Vasconcelos, Carlos; Martins da Silva, Berta; Selores, Manuela

    2013-11-01

    Severe psoriasis has been associated with increase cardiovascular mortality, due to a higher prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and premature atherosclerosis, as a consequence of its systemic inflammation. Recently, it has been estimated that severe psoriasis may confer an increased 6.2% on long-term risk of cardiovascular disease based on Framingham Risk Score, which can have practical implications in the treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, as treatment guidelines account for the risk of cardiovascular disease in treatment goals. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of the attributable risk of severe psoriasis on long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and its implication on the correct treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease on a real-world cohort of patients. One hundred severe psoriasis patients without psoriatic arthritis or previous cardiovascular disease were evaluated and it was found that more than half of the patients were reclassified to a higher cardiovascular risk category with important clinical implications on the correct management of their cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, as a considerable proportion of patients with hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and coronary heart disease equivalent risk were not being correctly managed.

  14. En la población Canaria, la función de Framingham estima mejor el riesgo de mortalidad cardiovascular que la función SCORE Framingham function estimates the risk of cardio vascular mortality more effectively than SCORE function in the population of the Canary Islands (Spain

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    Antonio Cabrera de León

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Comparar la estimación de eventos cardiovasculares fatales con las funciones de Framingham y SCORE, además de explorar su capacidad para detectar el riesgo aportado por factores no incluidos en sus ecuaciones: sedentarismo, obesidad, perímetro abdominal, razón abdomen/estatura, razón abdomen/pelvis y consumo excesivo de alcohol. Métodos: Estudio transversal de 5.289 personas, de 30 a 69 años de edad, obtenidas por muestreo aleatorio en la población general de Canarias. Se calibraron las funciones de Framingham y SCORE, y se estimó su concordancia. Se obtuvo, para estas edades, la tasa poblacional de mortalidad cardiovascular y se confrontó con el riesgo predicho por las funciones. Resultados: En los hombres, la tasa de mortalidad por 100.000 habitantes fue de 67,4, en tanto que la estimación de Framingham, SCORE-Low y SCORE-High fue de 80, 140 y 270, respectivamente. En las mujeres, frente a una tasa de 19,3, la estimación fue de 30, 50 y 70, respectivamente. Ambas funciones detectaron el incremento del riesgo aportado por los factores estudiados, con la excepción, en las mujeres, del sedentarismo con SCORE y del consumo excesivo de alcohol con ambas funciones. En los hombres, tomando para Framingham los puntos de corte de >12%, >15% y >20%, la concordancia con SCORE-Low produjo una Kappa de 0,6, 0,7 y 0,5, respectivamente. Conclusiones: La función de Framingham estimó mejor las tasas de mortalidad que la función SCORE. Únicamente la función de Framingham detectó en ambos sexos el riesgo cardiovascular aportado por el sedentarismo. En Canarias recomendamos la aplicación de la función de Framingham calibrada.Introduction: To compare the performance of the Framingham and SCORE functions to estimate fatal cardiovascular events. In addition, we explored the ability of both functions to detect the risk contributed by factors not included in their equations: sedentariness, obesity, abdominal circumference, abdomen

  15. Agreement between Framingham Risk Score and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine in Identifying High Coronary Heart Disease Risk in North Indian Population.

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    Bansal, Dipika; Nayakallu, Ramya S R; Gudala, Kapil; Vyamasuni, Rajavikram; Bhansali, Anil

    2015-08-01

    The aim of the study is to evaluate the concurrence between Framingham Risk score (FRS) and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine in identifying coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in newly detected diabetes mellitus patients and to explore the characteristics associated with the discrepancy between them. A cross-sectional study involving 489 subjects newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus was conducted. Agreement between FRS and UKPDS in classifying patients as high risk was calculated using kappa statistic. Subjects with discrepant scores between two algorithms were identified and associated variables were determined. The FRS identified 20.9% subjects (range, 17.5 to 24.7) as high-risk while UKPDS identified 21.75% (range, 18.3 to 25.5) as high-risk. Discrepancy was observed in 17.9% (range, 14.7 to 21.7) subjects. About 9.4% had high risk by UKPDS but not FRS, and 8.6% had high risk by FRS but not UKPDS. The best agreement was observed at high-risk threshold of 20% for both (κ=0.463). Analysis showed that subjects having high risk on FRS but not UKPDS were elderly females having raised systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Patients with high risk on UKPDS but not FRS were males and have high glycosylated hemoglobin. The FRS and UKPDS (threshold 20%) identified different populations as being at high risk, though the agreement between them was fairly good. The concurrence of a number of factors (e.g., male sex, low high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and smoking) in both algorithms should be regarded as increasing the CHD risk. However, longitudinal follow-up is required to form firm conclusions.

  16. Predictive value of updating framingham risk scores with novel risk markers in the U.S. general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.S. Ferket (Bart); B.J.H. van Kempen (Bob); M.G.M. Hunink (Myriam); I. Agarwal (Isha); M. Kavousi (Maryam); O.H. Franco (Oscar); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); W. Max (Wendy); K.E. Fleischmann (Kirsten)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractBackground: According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP), and ankle-brachial index (ABI) are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Thei

  17. Predictive value of updating Framingham risk scores with novel risk markers in the U.S. general population.

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    Bart S Ferket

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT, high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP, and ankle-brachial index (ABI are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2003-2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male, 70% (80% were at low (<10%, 19% (14% at intermediate (≥10-<20%, and 11% (6% at high (≥20% 10-year CVD (CHD risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02-0.19. The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01-0.03 with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38% moved to low and 22% (30% to high CVD (CHD risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. CONCLUSIONS: Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies.

  18. High lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease vs low 10-year Framingham risk score in HIV-infected subjects under ART in Spain: the Coronator study

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    C Miralles

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Due to the relative low age of HIV-infected patients, Framingham risk score (FRS usually estimates a low CVD risk. Lifetime risk estimations use the risk of developing CVD over the course of an individual's remaining lifetime and may be useful in communicating the risk of CVD to young patients. Our aim is to estimate the lifetime risk of CVD in a representative sample of HIV patients under antiretroviral therapy in Spain. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis in 10 HIV units across Spain, including information on demographics, HIV disease status, treatment history and cardiovascular risk factors of subject under ART. Lifetime CVD risk was calculated with the method of Berry et al, which classifies the lifetime risk in five mutually exclusive categories: 1. All risk factors are optimal; 2. At least one risk factor is not optimal; 3. At least one risk factor is elevated; 4. One major risk factor is present; and 5. Two or more major risk factors are present. Risk factors included are cholesterol level, blood pressure, diabetes and tobacco smoking. We grouped these five categories in two major groups, low-risk (groups 1+2+3 and high-risk category (groups 4+5. We calculated the prevalence of having a high lifetime risk, and its crude and aOR (adjusted by age, sex, place of origin, education level, transmission category, time since HIV diagnosis, CDC stage, current and nadir CD4 count, HCV coinfection, time on current and total ART, being on the first ART regimen, and PI vs. NNRTI regimen. Results: We included 839 subjects free of previous CVD disease: 72% men, median age 45.6y, median CD4 count 598 cells, median time since HIV diagnosis 11y, median time on ART 6.3y, 87% had undetectable VL. Estimated 10-year CVD risk was low (<5% in 78% of the patients, and intermediate (5–10% in 20%. Lifetime risk estimation shows a high risk profile for 71.4% of the population studied (≥1 major risk factors. Factors significantly and independently

  19. A genetic risk score based on direct associations with coronary heart disease improves coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), but not in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring, Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brautbar, Ariel; Pompeii, Lisa A; Dehghan, Abbas; Ngwa, Julius S; Nambi, Vijay; Virani, Salim S; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Pencina, Michael J; Folsom, Aaron R; Cupples, L Adrienne; Ballantyne, Christie M; Boerwinkle, Eric

    2012-08-01

    Multiple studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether SNPs selected based on predefined criteria will improve CHD risk prediction when added to traditional risk factors (TRFs). SNPs were selected from the literature based on association with CHD, lack of association with a known CHD risk factor, and successful replication. A genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed based on these SNPs. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate CHD risk based on the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham CHD risk scores with and without the GRS. The GRS was associated with risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.13). Addition of the GRS to the ARIC risk score significantly improved discrimination, reclassification, and calibration beyond that afforded by TRFs alone in non-Hispanic whites in the ARIC study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.742 to 0.749 (Δ = 0.007; 95% CI, 0.004-0.013), and the net reclassification index (NRI) was 6.3%. Although the risk estimates for CHD in the Framingham Offspring (HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10-1.14) and Rotterdam (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14) Studies were significantly improved by adding the GRS to TRFs, improvements in AUC and NRI were modest. Addition of a GRS based on direct associations with CHD to TRFs significantly improved discrimination and reclassification in white participants of the ARIC Study, with no significant improvement in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring Studies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Cocoa flavanol intake improves endothelial function and Framingham Risk Score in healthy men and women: a randomised, controlled, double-masked trial: the Flaviola Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sansone, Roberto; Rodriguez-Mateos, Ana; Heuel, Jan; Falk, David; Schuler, Dominik; Wagstaff, Rabea; Kuhnle, Gunter G C; Spencer, Jeremy P E; Schroeter, Hagen; Merx, Marc W; Kelm, Malte; Heiss, Christian

    2015-10-28

    Cocoa flavanol (CF) intake improves endothelial function in patients with cardiovascular risk factors and disease. We investigated the effects of CF on surrogate markers of cardiovascular health in low risk, healthy, middle-aged individuals without history, signs or symptoms of CVD. In a 1-month, open-label, one-armed pilot study, bi-daily ingestion of 450 mg of CF led to a time-dependent increase in endothelial function (measured as flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD)) that plateaued after 2 weeks. Subsequently, in a randomised, controlled, double-masked, parallel-group dietary intervention trial (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01799005), 100 healthy, middle-aged (35-60 years) men and women consumed either the CF-containing drink (450 mg) or a nutrient-matched CF-free control bi-daily for 1 month. The primary end point was FMD. Secondary end points included plasma lipids and blood pressure, thus enabling the calculation of Framingham Risk Scores and pulse wave velocity. At 1 month, CF increased FMD over control by 1·2 % (95 % CI 1·0, 1·4 %). CF decreased systolic and diastolic blood pressure by 4·4 mmHg (95 % CI 7·9, 0·9 mmHg) and 3·9 mmHg (95 % CI 6·7, 0·9 mmHg), pulse wave velocity by 0·4 m/s (95 % CI 0·8, 0·04 m/s), total cholesterol by 0·20 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·39, 0·01 mmol/l) and LDL-cholesterol by 0·17 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·32, 0·02 mmol/l), whereas HDL-cholesterol increased by 0·10 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·04, 0·17 mmol/l). By applying the Framingham Risk Score, CF predicted a significant lowering of 10-year risk for CHD, myocardial infarction, CVD, death from CHD and CVD. In healthy individuals, regular CF intake improved accredited cardiovascular surrogates of cardiovascular risk, demonstrating that dietary flavanols have the potential to maintain cardiovascular health even in low-risk subjects.

  1. Metabolic Syndrome versus Framingham Risk Score for Association of Self-Reported Coronary Heart Disease: The 2005 Korean Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

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    Hye Mi Kang

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundSeveral studies in Western populations have indicated that metabolic syndrome (MetS is inferior to the Framingham risk score (FRS in predicting coronary heart disease (CHD. However there has been no study about the predictability of MetS vs. FRS for CHD in Korea.MethodsAmong the 43,145 persons from the third Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in 2005, laboratory test and nutritional survey data from 5,271 persons were examined. Participants were also asked to recall a physician's diagnosis of CHD.ResultsThe median age was 46 (range, 20 to 78 in men (n=2,257 and 44 (range, 20 to 78 years in women (n=3,014. Prevalence of self-reported CHD was 1.7% in men and 2.1% in women. Receiver operating characteristic curves and their respective area under the curve (AUC were used to compare the ability of the FRS and the number of components of MetS to predict self-reported CHD in each sex. In men, AUC of FRS was significantly larger than that of MetS (0.767 [0.708 to 0.819] vs. 0.677 [0.541 to 0.713], P<0.01. In women, AUC of FRS was comparable to that of MetS (0.777 [0.728 to 0.826] vs. 0.733 [0.673 to 0.795], and was not significant.ConclusionThe data suggested that FRS was more closely associated with CHD compared to MetS in Korean men.

  2. Metabolic Syndrome versus Framingham Risk Score for Association of Self-Reported Coronary Heart Disease: The 2005 Korean Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Hye Mi; Kim, Dong-Jun

    2012-06-01

    Several studies in Western populations have indicated that metabolic syndrome (MetS) is inferior to the Framingham risk score (FRS) in predicting coronary heart disease (CHD). However there has been no study about the predictability of MetS vs. FRS for CHD in Korea. Among the 43,145 persons from the third Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in 2005, laboratory test and nutritional survey data from 5,271 persons were examined. Participants were also asked to recall a physician's diagnosis of CHD. The median age was 46 (range, 20 to 78) in men (n=2,257) and 44 (range, 20 to 78) years in women (n=3,014). Prevalence of self-reported CHD was 1.7% in men and 2.1% in women. Receiver operating characteristic curves and their respective area under the curve (AUC) were used to compare the ability of the FRS and the number of components of MetS to predict self-reported CHD in each sex. In men, AUC of FRS was significantly larger than that of MetS (0.767 [0.708 to 0.819] vs. 0.677 [0.541 to 0.713], P<0.01). In women, AUC of FRS was comparable to that of MetS (0.777 [0.728 to 0.826] vs. 0.733 [0.673 to 0.795]), and was not significant. The data suggested that FRS was more closely associated with CHD compared to MetS in Korean men.

  3. Evolution of Framingham cardiovascular risk score in HIV-infected patients initiating EFV- and LPV/r-based HAART in a Latin American cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Cecchini

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Epidemiological studies suggest that some antiretroviral drugs may contribute to increase cardiovascular risk in HIV-infected patients. However, data from Latin American countries are limited, as impact of HAART on cardiovascular risk remains understudied. In this context, we aimed to evaluate if 10-year Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (FCRS increases in patients following exposure to EFV- and LPV/r-based HAART in a Latin American cohort. Materials and Methods: Retrospective 48-week cohort study. We reviewed clinical charts of randomly selected samples of patients initiating (according to national guidelines EFV first-line HAART and LPV/r first- or second-line (but first PI-based HAART assisted at a reference HIV centre in Buenos Aires, Argentina (period 2004–2012. Each patient could only be included in one arm. FCRS was calculated according to National Institutes of Health risk assessment tool (http://cvdrisk.nhlbi.nih.gov/. Results: A total of 357 patients were included: 249 in EFV arm and 108 in LPV/r arm (80 as first line and 28 as second line, but first PI-based HAART. Baseline characteristics (median, interquartile range: age, 38 (33–45 years; male, 247 (69%; viral load, 98200 (20550–306000 copies/mL; CD4 T-cell count, 115 (60–175 cel/µL; total cholesterol, 159 (135–194 mg/dL; HDL: 39 (31–41 mg/dL; LDL: 94 (72–123 mg/dL; current smoker, 29%; on antihypertensive drugs: 14 (4%, diabetic: 4 (1%. Most frequent accompanying nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs were 3TC (92% and zidovudine (AZT; 76%. Baseline FCRS was low, moderate and high for 93%, 7% and 0% of patients on EFV arm and 96.7%, 1.7% and 1.7% on LPV/r arm. On EFV arm, an increase in FCRS category (low to moderate or moderate to high was observed in 1 patient (0.9% at 24 weeks and 6 (5,6% at 48 weeks; 5 (4.7% decreased category. On LPV/r arm no one varied FCRS category at 24 weeks and 2 (3.4% increased from low to moderate at 48 weeks

  4. Investigation of Framingham Risk Factors in Turkish adults

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    Arda Şanlı Ökmen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine 10-year risk for development of cardiovascular diseases usingFramingham risk scoring as a tool for the estimationof coronary risk and renew the blood lipid levels.Materials and methods: Samples from fasting 3169healthy donors declaring as having no cardiovasculardisease and diabetes (1800 women, mean age 46.8±9.2years and 1369 men, mean age 46.03±8.4 years weretested and scored according to risk factors in both genders.Results: When average values were considered, totalcholesterol level was higher (204±42 mg/dL accordingto reactive insert reference values. High total kolesteroland low HDL-C levels were seen in 20% and 19.5% ofmen and 32.6% and 1.1% of women, respectively. Thenumber of participants having systolic blood pressure≥130 mmHg and diastolic blood pressure ≥ 85 mmHgwere 775 (24.5% and the distribution of those valueswas 10.6 % in men and 13.9% in women. The mean 10-year cardiovascular disease risks were 9.4 % in men and4.6% in women among 3169 participants.Conclusion: A 10-year risk of coronary disease, in Turkishmales was 2-fold higher than in Turkish females. Useof Framingham study in clinical assessments maintains tobe a valid method in preventive approaches for developmentof cardiovascular diseases. J Clin Exp Invest 2011;2(1: 42-49

  5. Superior assessment of CVD death by MACD index compared with the framingham score is highly associated with predisposition to diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltyskinska, Ewa; Barascuk, Natascha; Ganz, Melanie

    investigated the relation between mortality and biological aspects of plaque dynamics such as of number, size, morphology and distribution in the lumbar aorta of postmenopausal women. We compared the MACD index to the Framingham AC24 score and correlated those to baseline demographic and biochemical risk...

  6. Escore de Framingham em motoristas de transportes coletivos urbanos de Teresina, Piauí Framingham score for public transportation drivers in the dity of Teresina, Piauí

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurício Batista Paes Landim

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Estimar o risco absoluto de contração de doença arterial coronariana, nos próximos 10 anos, em motoristas de transportes coletivos urbanos de Teresina, Piauí, segundo o escore de risco de Framingham. MÉTODOS: Foi realizado um estudo observacional, descritivo, transversal, aplicando-se o escore de Framingham, em 107 motoristas de transportes coletivos urbanos de Teresina, Piauí, para avaliação do grau de risco e sua associação com as variáveis previstas no mesmo, que foram: idade, colesterol total, colesterol HDL, pressão arterial sistólica, pressão arterial diastólica, presença de diabete melito e tabagismo. O teste de significância usado foi o c². Utilizou-se a razão de prevalência como medida de associação. RESULTADOS: O risco médio foi de 5%, com a maior parte situando-se na categoria de baixo risco (85,05%. As médias obtidas foram: 42 anos para a idade, colesterol total 200 mg%, colesterol HDL 49 mg%, pressão arterial sistólica 130 mmHg e pressão arterial diastólica 85 mmHg. As associações diabete melito, tabagismo e colesterol HDL, com o risco, não foram estatisticamente significantes, diferente do ocorrido com as outras variáveis, que tiveram grande influência no risco obtido. CONCLUSÃO: O risco absoluto médio estimado para os próximos 10 anos de doença arterial coronariana, em motoristas de transportes coletivos urbanos de Teresina, calculado pelo escore de Framingham, apresentou-se baixo. Uma parte considerável dos participantes da pesquisa (85,05% situou-se na categoria de baixo risco, ou seja, igual ou inferior a 10%.OBJECTIVE: To estimate the absolute risk of the public transportation drivers in the city of Teresina, Piauí, to develop coronary heart disease over the course of ten years based on the Framingham risk score. METHODS: An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study using the Framingham score was conducted with 107 public transportation drivers in the city of Teresina

  7. Thresholds for pulse wave velocity, urine albumin creatinine ratio and left ventricular mass index using SCORE, Framingham and ESH/ESC risk charts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W

    2012-01-01

    Markers of subclinical target organ damage (TOD) increase cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. We wanted to establish thresholds for three markers of TOD based on absolute CV risk in different risk chart categories.......Markers of subclinical target organ damage (TOD) increase cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. We wanted to establish thresholds for three markers of TOD based on absolute CV risk in different risk chart categories....

  8. Framingham cardiovascular risk in patients with obesity and periodontitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Rico Pires

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Obesity is a chronic inflammatory condition that has been associated to a risk factor for the development of periodontitis and cardiovascular disease; however, the relationship still needs to be clarified. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cardiovascular risk in obese patients with chronic periodontitis. Materials and Methods: A total of 87 obese patients were evaluated for anthropometric data (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference, body fat, systolic blood pressure (SBP and diastolic blood pressure (DBP, cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL and low-density lipoprotein (LDL, triglycerides, glycemia and periodontal parameters (visible plaque index (VPI, gingival bleeding index (GBI, bleeding on probing (BOP, periodontal probing depth (PPD and clinical attachment level (CAL. Results: Patients were divided into two groups according to the periodontal characteristics found: Group O-PD: Obese patients with chronic periodontitis (n = 45, 22 men and 23 women; and Group O-sPD: Obese patients without chronic periodontitis (n = 42, 17 men and 25 women. Patients had a BMI mean of 35.2 (±5.1 kg/m 2 . Group O-PD showed a similarity between the genders regarding age, SBP, DBP, cholesterol, HDL, GBI, VPI, PPD ≥4 mm and CAL ≥4 mm. O-PD women showed greater glycemia level and smoking occurrence, but O-PD men presented a 13% - risk over of developing coronary artery disease in 10 years than O-PD women, 9% - risk over than O-sPD men and 15% - risk over than O-sPD women, by the Framingham Score. Conclusions: It was concluded that obesity and periodontal disease are cardiovascular risk factors and that the two associated inflammatory conditions potentially increases the risk for heart diseases.

  9. Association between parental history of diabetes and type 2 diabetes genetic risk scores in the PPP-Botnia and Framingham Offspring Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vassy, Jason L; Shrader, Peter; Jonsson, Anna Elisabet

    2011-01-01

    Parental history of diabetes and specific gene variants are risk factors for type 2 diabetes, but the extent to which these factors are associated is unknown.......Parental history of diabetes and specific gene variants are risk factors for type 2 diabetes, but the extent to which these factors are associated is unknown....

  10. Cardiovascular risk scores for coronary atherosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.

  11. Common clinical practice versus new PRIM score in predicting coronary heart disease risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Schnohr, Peter;

    2010-01-01

    To compare the new Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) Score and common clinical practice with the Framingham Point Score for classification of individuals with respect to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk.......To compare the new Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) Score and common clinical practice with the Framingham Point Score for classification of individuals with respect to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk....

  12. Caffeine and the risk of hip fracture: the Framingham Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiel, D P; Felson, D T; Hannan, M T; Anderson, J J; Wilson, P W

    1990-10-01

    Caffeine increases urinary calcium output and has been implicated as a risk factor for osteoporosis. The authors examined the effect of caffeine on hip fracture risk in 3,170 individuals attending the 12th (1971-1973) Framingham Study examination. Coffee and tea consumption, age, Framingham examination number, weight, smoking, alcohol consumption, and estrogen use were used to evaluate hip fracture risk according to caffeine intake. Hip fractures occurred in 135 subjects during 12 years of follow-up. Fracture risk over each 2-year period increased with increasing caffeine intake (one cup of coffee = one unit of caffeine, one cup of tea = 1/2 unit of caffeine). For intake of 1.5-2.0 units per day, the adjusted relative risk (RR) of fracture was not significantly elevated compared with intake of one or less units per day. Consumption of greater than or equal to 2.5 units per day significantly increased the risk of fracture. Overall, intake of greater than two cups of coffee per day (four cups of tea) increased the risk of fracture. In summary, hip fracture risk was modestly increased with heavy caffeine use, but not for intake equivalent to one cup of coffee per day. Since caffeine use may be associated with other behaviors that are, themselves, risk factors for fracture, the association may be indirect. Further studies should be performed to confirm these findings.

  13. Cardiovascular events in acromegaly: distinct role of Agatston and Framingham score in the 5-year prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragonese, Marta; Alibrandi, Angela; Di Bella, Gianluca; Salamone, Ignazio; Puglisi, Soraya; Cotta, Oana Ruxandra; Torre, Maria Luisa; Ferrau, Francesco; Ruggeri, Rosaria Maddalena; Trimarchi, Francesco; Cannavo, Salvatore

    2014-09-01

    Prediction of ischemic cardiovascular events (ICE) in acromegalic patients stratified accordingly with Framingham (FS) and Agatston score (AS). 32 patients with active (group A (0)) and 20 with controlled (group B (0)) acromegaly have been enrolled. During the 5-year follow-up, 19 out of 32 patients in group A (0) reached disease control. At entry, FS and AS, by an eight-slice MDCT scanner, were calculated in all patients. ICE were diagnosed by autopsy, if lethal, and by electrocardiography and/or echocardiography, if non-lethal. Overall, 9.6 % of patients died for lethal ICE. AS >400, but not high FS at entry, was associated with increased risk of lethal ICE. Lethal ICE had occurred in two patients of group A (0) and three of group B (0) (p NS), while a non-lethal ICE had occurred in two cases of the former and in other two of the latter group (p NS). Either FS or AS was correlated with the risk for ICE overall (p 400 is associated with increased risk of lethal ICE, while high FS is associated with reduced life expectancy, regardless of disease control.

  14. Time-trend analysis on the Framingham risk score and prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention without prior history of coronary vascular disease over the last 17 years: a study from the Mayo Clinic PCI registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Moo-Sik; Flammer, Andreas J; Li, Jing; Lennon, Ryan J; Singh, Mandeep; Holmes, David R; Rihal, Charanjit S; Lerman, Amir

    2014-07-01

    There is a paucity of data on the temporal trends of cardiovascular risk factors in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We investigated the secular trends of risk profiles of patients undergoing PCI without prior history of cardiovascular disease (CVD). CVD risk factors are changed over time. This time-trend analysis from 1994 to 2010 was performed within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry. Outcome measures were prevalence of CVD risk factors, including the Framingham risk score (FRS), at the time of admission for PCI. During this period, 12,055 patients without a history of CVD (mean age, 65.0 ± 12.4 years, 67% male) underwent PCI at the Mayo Clinic. Age distribution slightly shifted toward older age (P for trend trend trend trend trend <0.001), whereas smoking prevalence did not change. The current study demonstrates that although traditional FRS and its associated predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk declined over time, the prevalence of risk factors increased in patients undergoing PCI. The study suggests the need for a new risk-factor assessment in this patient population. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Cardiovascular risk score in Rheumatoid Arthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagan, Abrar Ahmed; Mahmud, Tafazzul E Haque; Rasheed, Aflak; Zafar, Zafar Ali; Rehman, Ata ur; Ali, Amjad

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To determine the 10-year Cardiovascular risk score with QRISK-2 and Framingham risk calculators in Rheumatoid Arthritis and Non Rheumatoid Arthritis subjects and asses the usefulness of QRISK-2 and Framingham calculators in both groups. Methods: During the study 106 RA and 106 Non RA patients age and sex matched participants were enrolled from outpatient department. Demographic data and questions regarding other study parameters were noted. After 14 hours of fasting 5 ml of venous blood was drawn for Cholesterol and HDL levels, laboratory tests were performed on COBAS c III (ROCHE). QRISK-2 and Framingham risk calculators were used to get individual 10-year CVD risk score. Results: In this study the mean age of RA group was (45.1±9.5) for Non RA group (43.7±8.2), with female gender as common. The mean predicted 10-year score with QRISK-2 calculator in RA group (14.2±17.1%) and Non RA group was (13.2±19.0%) with (p-value 0.122). The 10-year score with Framingham risk score in RA group was (12.9±10.4%) and Non RA group was (8.9±8.7%) with (p-value 0.001). In RA group QRISK-2 (24.5%) and FRS (31.1%) cases with predicted score were in higher risk category. The maximum agreement scores between both calculators was observed in both groups (Kappa = 0.618 RA Group; Kappa = 0.671 Non RA Group). Conclusion: QRISK-2 calculator is more appropriate as it takes RA, ethnicity, CKD, and Atrial fibrillation as factors in risk assessment score. PMID:27375684

  16. Metabolic factors and genetic risk mediate familial type 2 diabetes risk in the Framingham Heart Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Sridharan; Porneala, Bianca; McKeown, Nicola; Fox, Caroline S.; Dupuis, Josée; Meigs, James B.

    2015-01-01

    Aims/hypothesis Type 2 diabetes mellitus in parents is a strong determinant of diabetes risk in their offspring. We hypothesise that offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes is mediated by metabolic risk factors. Methods We studied initially non-diabetic participants of the Framingham Offspring Study. Metabolic risk was estimated using beta cell corrected insulin response (CIR), HOMA-IR or a count of metabolic syndrome components (metabolic syndrome score [MSS]). Dietary risk and physical activity were estimated using questionnaire responses. Genetic risk score (GRS) was estimated as the count of 62 type 2 diabetes risk alleles. The outcome of incident diabetes in offspring was examined across levels of parental diabetes exposure, accounting for sibling correlation and adjusting for age, sex and putative mediators. The proportion mediated was estimated by comparing regression coefficients for parental diabetes with (βadj) and without (βunadj) adjustments for CIR, HOMA-IR, MSS and GRS (percentage mediated = 1 – βadj / βunadj). Results Metabolic factors mediated 11% of offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes, corresponding to a reduction in OR per diabetic parent from 2.13 to 1.96. GRS mediated 9% of risk, corresponding to a reduction in OR per diabetic parent from 2.13 to 1.99. Conclusions/interpretation Metabolic risk factors partially mediated offspring type 2 diabetes risk conferred by parental diabetes to a similar magnitude as genetic risk. However, a substantial proportion of offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes remains unexplained by metabolic factors, genetic risk, diet and physical activity, suggesting that important familial influences on diabetes risk remain undiscovered. PMID:25619168

  17. Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: A Comparison of the Framingham, PROCAM, and DAD Equations in HIV-Infected Persons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max Weyler Nery

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to estimate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD and to assess the agreement between the Framingham, Framingham with aggravating factors, PROCAM, and DAD equations in HIV-infected patients. A cross-sectional study was conducted in an outpatient centre in Brazil. 294 patients older than 19 years were enrolled. Estimates of 10-year cardiovascular risk were calculated. The agreement between the CVD risk equations was assessed using Cohen's kappa coefficient. The participants' mean age was 36.8 years (SD = 10.3, 76.9% were men, and 66.3% were on antiretroviral therapy. 47.8% of the participants had abdominal obesity, 23.1% were current smokers, 20.0% had hypertension, and 2.0% had diabetes. At least one lipid abnormality was detected in 72.8%, and a low HDL-C level was the most common. The majority were classified as having low risk for CV events. The percentage of patients at high risk ranged from 0.4 to 5.7. The PROCAM score placed the lowest proportion of the patients into a high-risk group, and the Framingham equation with aggravating factors placed the highest proportion of patients into the high-risk group. Data concerning the comparability of different tools are informative for estimating the risk of CVD, but accuracy of the outcome predictions should also be considered.

  18. 糖调节受损和糖尿病患者的动脉僵硬度与10年心血管疾病风险评估%Association between pulse wave velocity and the Framingham risk score in patients with different glucose metabolism status

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张倩; 付强; 魏鹏; 钟健; 朱可

    2014-01-01

    Objective:To investigate the relationship between different glucose metabolism status and pulse wave velocity(PWV),and to further explore PWV with the Framingham risk score(FRS) of 10-year as predictors of cardiovascular disease(CVD).Methods:A total of 105 subjects were divided into three groups:normal glucose tolerance group (G1,n =47) ; prediabetes group (G2,n =32),and type 2 diabetes mellitus group(G3,n =26).General clinical data of subjects in each group were collected,and biochemical parameters were measured.PWV was measured using the Complior SP (pulse wave velocity determinator).FRS was calculated with the lipids excel spreadsheets from Framingham Heart Study homepage.The correlation of different glucose metabolism status,PWV and FRS in different groups was analyzed and compared.Results:A positive correlation was found between carotid-to-femoral pulse wave velocity (cf-PWV) and impaired glucose regulation,age,SBP,2hPG,carotid-to-radial pulse wave velocity (cr-PWV).A negative correlation was also evident between cf-PWV and fasting insulin/fasting C-peptide (FIN/Cp).A correlation was found between cr-PWV and sex,or HDL-C (negative).A correlation was also found between FRS and cf-PWV,or FIN/Cp,or Homa-IR(Cp).Conclusion:cf-PWV has a good clinical value as a vascular structure and function indicator for evaluating the 10-year risk of CVD.%目的:探讨不同糖代谢状态患者血管僵硬度与基线资料的相关性,及其对10年心血管疾病发病风险的预测价值.方法:入选研究对象105例,其中正常对照组47例,糖调节受损组32例,糖尿病组26例,收集患者基本资料、总胆固醇、LDL-C、三酰甘油、HDL-C、空腹血糖、空腹胰岛素(fasting insulin,FIN)、空腹C肽(fasting C-peptide,Cp)、HbA1c、颈股脉搏波传导速度(carotid-to-femoral pulse wave velocity,cf-PWV)、颈桡脉搏波传导速度(carotid-to-radialpulse wave velocity,cr-PWV),行糖耐量试验(oral glucose tolerance test,OGTT)2 h后测血糖(2hPG);结合相关指标计算Framingham

  19. Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions the CHARGE risk score project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A. Ibrahim-Verbaas (Carla); M. Fornage (Myriam); J.C. Bis (Joshua); S.-H. Choi (Seung-Hoan); B.M. Psaty (Bruce); J.B. Meigs (James); M. Rao (Madhu); M.A. Nalls (Michael); M. Fontes (Michel); C.J. O'Donnell (Christopher); S. Kathiresan (Sekar); G.B. Ehret (Georg); C.S. Fox (Caroline); R. Malik (Rainer); C. Kubisch (Christian); R. Schmidt (Reinhold); J. Lahti (Jari); S.R. Heckbert (Susan); T. Lumley (Thomas); K.M. Rice (Kenneth); J.I. Rotter (Jerome); K.D. Taylor (Kent); A.R. Folsom (Aaron); E.A. Boerwinkle (Eric); W.D. Rosamond (Wayne); E. Shahar (Eyal); R.F. Gottesman (Rebecca); P.J. Koudstaal (Peter Jan); N. Amin (Najaf); R.G. Wieberdink (Renske); A. Dehghan (Abbas); A. Hofman (Albert); A.G. Uitterlinden (André); A.L. DeStefano (Anita); S. Debette (Stéphanie); L. Xue (Luting); A. Beiser (Alexa); P.A. Wolf (Philip); C. DeCarli (Charles); M.A. Ikram (Arfan); S. Seshadri (Sudha); T.H. Mosley (Thomas); W.T. Longstreth Jr; C.M. van Duijn (Cock); L.J. Launer (Lenore)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractBackground and Purpose - Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. Methods - The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 204

  20. Applicability of Framingham risk equations for studying a low-income mexican population Aplicabilidad del puntaje de Framingham en población mexicana de nivel socioeconómico bajo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Jiménez-Corona

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To compare the predicted risk of coronary heart disease (CHD and incident myocardial infarction (MI using Framingham score equations with the observed rate of MI in Mexican subjects. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Longitudinal study that included 1 667 men and women aged 35 to 64 years without MI at baseline. Incident MI was defined by electrocardiogram or death certificate. The predicted risk of fatal MI, non-fatal MI, and both was calculated using Framingham score equations. Predicted to observed risk ratio of MI was estimated. RESULTS: There were 34 incident MI cases and 24 MI deaths (median follow-up 6.2 years. The score equations overestimated the prediction of incident MI and CHD death (ratio 2.27, 95% CI, 1.19-3.34 and incident MI (ratio 2.36, 95% CI, 1.07-3.65 in men. CONCLUSIONS: The Framingham score overestimated incident MI and CHD death risk in men; however, other studies are needed to confirm our results for recalibrating the score for Mexican subjects.OBJETIVO: Comparar el riesgo predicho y observado de enfermedad coronaria (EC e infarto al miocardio (IM usando ecuaciones del puntaje de Framingham en individuos mexicanos. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estudio longitudinal de 1 667 hombres y mujeres de entre 35 a 64 años de edad y sin IM en la medición basal. IM se definió por electrocardiograma o certificado de defunción. Se estimó el riesgo predicho y la razón del riesgo predicho y observado de IM. RESULTADOS: Durante el seguimiento (mediana de 6.2 años hubo 34 casos y 24 defunciones por IM. El puntaje sobreestimó la predicción de IM y muerte por EC (razón 2.27, IC 95% 1.19-3.34 e IM incidente (razón 2.36, IC 95% 1.07-3.65 en hombres. CONCLUSIONES: En este estudio, el puntaje de Framingham sobreestimó el riesgo de IM y muerte por IM en hombres; sin embargo, estos resultados necesitan ser confirmados por otros estudios, para la posterior recalibración del puntaje en población mexicana.

  1. Adiponectin: an independent risk factor for coronary heart disease in men in the Framingham Offspring Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our aim was to determine whether plasma adiponectin levels were an independent predictor of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. Plasma adiponectin levels were measured in 3,188 male and female participants from cycle 6 of the Framingham Offspring Study (mean age: 57 years in both men and women; BMI:...

  2. Changes in erectile dysfunction over time in relation to Framingham cardiovascular risk in the Boston Area Community Health (BACH) Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Shona C; Rosen, Raymond C; Vita, Joseph A; Ganz, Peter; Kupelian, Varant

    2015-01-01

    Erectile dysfunction (ED) is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, the association between change in ED status over time and future underlying CVD risk is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between change in ED status and Framingham CVD risk, as well change in Framingham risk. We studied 965 men free of CVD in the Boston Area Community Health (BACH) Survey, a longitudinal cohort study with three assessments. ED was assessed with the five-item International Index of Erectile Function at BACH I (2002-2005) and BACH II (2007-2010) and classified as no ED/transient ED/persistent ED. CVD risk was assessed with 10-year Framingham CVD risk algorithm at BACH I and BACH III (2010-2012). Linear regression models controlled for baseline age, socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, as well as baseline Framingham risk. Models were also stratified by age (≥/< 50 years). Framingham CVD risk and change in Framingham CVD risk were the main outcome measures. Transient and persistent ED was significantly associated with increased Framingham risk and change in risk over time in univariate and age-adjusted models. In younger men, persistent ED was associated with a Framingham risk that was 1.58 percentage points higher (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.11, 3.06) and in older men, a Framingham risk that was 2.54 percentage points higher (95% CI: -1.5, 6.59), compared with those without ED. Change in Framingham risk over time was also associated with transient and persistent ED in men <50 years, but not in older men. Data suggest that even after taking into account other CVD risk factors, transient and persistent ED is associated with Framingham CVD risk and a greater increase in Framingham risk over time, particularly in younger men. Findings further support clinical assessment of CVD risk in men presenting with ED, especially those under 50 years. © 2014 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  3. Effect of eprosartan-based antihypertensive therapy on coronary heart disease risk assessed by Framingham methodology in Canadian patients: results of the POWER survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrella RJ

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Robert J Petrella,1 Guy Tremblay,2 Guy De Backer,3 Dawn P Gill,4,5,6 On behalf of the POWER survey Study Group 1Department of Family Medicine and Cardiology, Lawson Health Research Institute, University of Western Ontario, ON, Canada; 2Centre hospitalier universitaire de Québec, Hôpital du Saint-Sacrement, Sainte-Foy, Québec, QC, Canada; 3Department of Public Health, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium; 4Aging, Rehabilitation and Geriatric Care Research Centre, Lawson Health Research Institute, London, ON, Canada; 5School of Health Studies, Western University, London, ON, Canada; 6Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Purpose/introduction: The Canadian Hypertension Education Program (CHEP has identified blood pressure (BP control as a key target for an overall reduction in cardiovascular disease risk. The POWER survey (Physicians’ Observational Work on Patient Education According to their Vascular Risk used Framingham methodology to investigate the impact of an angiotensin-receptor-blocker-based regimen on arterial BP and total coronary heart disease (CHD risk in a subset of patients recruited in Canada. Methods: 309 Canadian practices screened for patients with either newly diagnosed or uncontrolled mild/moderate hypertension (sitting systolic blood pressure [SBP] >140 mmHg with diastolic blood pressure [DBP] <110 mmHg. Treatment comprised eprosartan 600 mg/day with add-on antihypertensive therapy after 1 month if required. The primary efficacy variable was change in SBP at 6 months; the secondary variable was the absolute change in the Framingham 10-year CHD risk score. Results: 1,385 patients were identified, of whom 1,114 were included in the intention-to-treat (ITT cohort. Thirty-eight point four percent of ITT patients were managed with monotherapy at 6 months, versus 35.2% and 13.7% with two-drug or multiple-drug therapy, respectively. SBP in the ITT cohort declined 22.4 (standard deviation [SD] 14.8 mm

  4. Effect of serum lipid level change on 10-year coronary heart risk distribution estimated by means of seven different coronary risk scores during one-year treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojić, Nevena Eremić; Derić, Mirjana; Dejanović, Jadranka

    2014-01-01

    This study was done in order to evaluate the effect of serum levels of total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol on 10-year coronary heart disease risk distribution change. This study included 110 subjects of both genders (71 female and 39 male), aged 29 to 73, treated at the Outpatient Department of Atherosclerosis Prevention, Centre for Laboratory Medicine, Clinical Centre Vojvodina. The 10-year coronary heart disease risk was estimated on first examination and after one-year treatment by means of Framingham, PROCAM and SCORE coronary risk scores and their modifications (Framingham Adult Treatment Panel III, Framingham Weibul, PROCAM NS and PROCAM Cox Hazards). Age, gender, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking, positive family history and left ventricular hypertrophy are risk factors involved in the estimation of coronary heart disease besides lipid parameters. There were no significant differences in nutritional status, smoking habits, systolic and diastolic pressure, and no development of diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular incidents during one-year follow. However, a significant reduction in cholesterol level (p risk (Framingham- p Framingham ATP III- p Framingham Weibul- p SCORE- p risk category (Framingham- p Framingham ATP III- p Framingham Weibul- p SCORE- p risk at the beginning of the study. Our results show that the correction of lipid level after one-year treatment leads to a significant redistribution of 10-year coronary heart disease risk estimated by means of seven different coronary risk scores. This should stimulate patients and doctors to persist in prevention measures.

  5. Effect of eprosartan-based antihypertensive therapy on coronary heart disease risk assessed by Framingham methodology in Canadian patients with diabetes: results of the POWER survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrella RJ

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Robert J Petrella,1–3 Dawn P Gill,2,3 Jean-Pascal Berrou4On behalf of the POWER survey Study Group 1Departments of Family Medicine, Medicine (Cardiology and Kinesiology, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; 2Aging, Rehabilitation and Geriatric Care Research Centre, Lawson Health Research Institute, London, ON, Canada; 3Department of Family Medicine and School of Health Studies, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; 4Abbott Products Operations AG, Allschwil, Switzerland Objective: As part of the Physicians’ Observational Work on Patient Education According to their Vascular Risk (POWER survey, we used Framingham methodology to examine the effect of an eprosartan-based regimen on total coronary heart disease (CHD risk in diabetic patients recruited in Canada. Methods: Patients with new or uncontrolled hypertension (sitting systolic blood pressure [SBP] >140 mmHg with diastolic blood pressure <110 mmHg were identified at 335 Canadian primary care practices. Initial treatment consisted of eprosartan 600 mg/day, which was later supplemented with other antihypertensives as required. Outcomes included change in SBP at 6 months (primary objective and absolute change in the Framingham 10-year CHD risk score (secondary objective. Results: We identified an intention-to-treat diabetes population of 195 patients. Most diabetic patients were prescribed two or more antihypertensive drugs throughout the survey. Mean reductions in SBP and diastolic blood pressure were 20.8±14.8 mmHg and 9.5±10.7 mmHg, respectively. The overall absolute mean 10-year CHD risk, calculated using Framingham formulae, declined by 2.9±3.5 points (n=49. Average baseline risk was higher in men than women (14.8±8.6 versus 5.6±1.8 points; men also had a larger average risk reduction (4.2±4.3 versus 1.5±1.3 points. The extent of absolute risk reduction also increased with increasing age (trend not statistically significant. Conclusion: Eprosartan

  6. Systolic blood pressure, arterial rigidity, and risk of stroke. The Framingham study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannel, W B; Wolf, P A; McGee, D L; Dawber, T R; McNamara, P; Castelli, W P

    1981-03-27

    Based on prospective data from the Framingham study relating systolic pressure, diastolic pressure, age, and pulse-wave configuration to future stroke incidence, it would appear that isolated systolic hypertension predisposes to stroke independent of arterial rigidity. The prevalence of isolated systolic hypertension increased with age and with the degree of blunting of the dicrotic notch in the pulse wave. Subjects with isolated systolic hypertension experienced two to four times as many strokes as did normotensive persons. While diastolic pressure is related to stroke incidence, in the subject with systolic hypertension, the diastolic component adds little to risk assessment and in men, in this subgroup, appears unrelated to stroke incidence.

  7. Invited Commentary: The Framingham Offspring Study-A Pioneering Investigation Into Familial Aggregation of Cardiovascular Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manson, JoAnn E; Bassuk, Shari S

    2017-06-01

    Launched in 1948, the Framingham Heart Study was a seminal prospective cohort study of 5,209 adult residents of Framingham, Massachusetts, that was designed to uncover the determinants and natural history of coronary heart disease. Data from this original cohort established the cardiac threat posed by high blood pressure, high cholesterol, smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, diabetes, and other factors. In the late 1960s, investigators conceived the innovative idea of assembling a second cohort that comprised the adult children of the original study population (and these children's spouses). From 1971 to 1975, a total of 5,124 individuals were recruited to form the Offspring Cohort. Studying successive generations in this fashion provided an efficient method for examining secular trends in cardiovascular disease and its risk factors, as well as an opportunity to assess familial aggregation of risk without the threat of recall bias. In a paper published in the September 1979 issue of the Journal, then study director William Kannel et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 1979;110(3):281-290) described the sampling design of the Offspring Study and presented selected baseline characteristics of the cohort. The scientific questions addressed by this research provided the impetus for a decades-long effort-still in full force today both within the Framingham Study itself and in the broader cardiovascular epidemiologic community-to quantify the independent and synergistic effects of genetic, lifestyle, and other environmental factors on cardiovascular outcomes. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Mediterranean-style dietary pattern, reduced risk of metabolic syndrome traits, and incidence in the Framingham Offspring Cohort123

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumawas, Marcella E; Meigs, James B; Dwyer, Johanna T; McKeown, Nicola M

    2009-01-01

    Background: The benefit of the Mediterranean-style dietary pattern in mitigating metabolic risk factors for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease has not been well investigated among nondiabetic Americans. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the prospective association between the Mediterranean-style dietary pattern and metabolic syndrome. Design: The Mediterranean-style dietary pattern score (MSDPS) was used to characterize a Mediterranean-style dietary pattern in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort. We examined the longitudinal association between MSDPS and metabolic syndrome traits (including homeostasis model assessment–insulin resistance, fasting glucose, waist circumference, triglyceride, HDL cholesterol, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure) among 2730 participants of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort without type 2 diabetes (baseline median age: 54 y; 55% women), who were followed from the fifth (baseline) to the seventh study examinations (mean follow-up time: 7 y), and metabolic syndrome incidence (according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III definition) in 1918 participants free of the condition at baseline. Results: A higher MSDPS was associated with lower homeostasis model assessment–insulin resistance (P = 0.02), waist circumference (P risk. Participants in the highest quintile category of the MSDPS had a lower incidence of metabolic syndrome than those in the lowest quintile category (38.5% compared with 30.1%; P = 0.01). Conclusion: Our study suggests that the consumption of a diet consistent with the principles of the Mediterranean-style diet may protect against metabolic syndrome in Americans. PMID:19828705

  9. The International Bleeding Risk Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Laine, L.; Dalton, H.

    2017-01-01

    The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding.......The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding....

  10. Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among Individuals With and Without Diabetes Stratified by Obesity Status in the Framingham Heart Study

    OpenAIRE

    Pencina, Michael J.; Wilson, Peter W. F.; Vasan, Ramachandran S; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Fox, Caroline; Paynter, Nina Palanza

    2008-01-01

    Objective: We assessed the lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among individuals with and without obesity and diabetes. Research Design and Methods: Participants were drawn from the original and offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study. Lifetime (30-year) risk of CVD was assessed using a modified Kaplan-Meier approach adjusting for the competing risk of death, beginning from age 50 years. Results: Over 30 years, the lifetime risk of CVD among women with diabetes was 54.8% amo...

  11. Assessment by cardiovascular magnetic resonance, electron beam computed tomography, and carotid ultrasonography of the distribution of subclinical atherosclerosis across Framingham risk strata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathiresan, Sekar; Larson, Martin G; Keyes, Michelle J; Polak, Joseph F; Wolf, Philip A; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Jaffer, Farouc A; Clouse, Melvin E; Levy, Daniel; Manning, Warren J; O'Donnell, Christopher J

    2007-02-01

    Screening for subclinical atherosclerosis has been advocated for individuals at intermediate global risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, the distribution of subclinical atherosclerosis test values across CHD risk strata is unknown. We studied a stratified random sample of 292 participants (mean age 59.5 years, 50% women) from the offspring cohort of the Framingham Heart Study who were free of clinically apparent cardiovascular disease. We assessed abdominal and thoracic aortic plaque burden by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), coronary artery calcification (CAC) and thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) by electron beam computed tomography, and common carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT) by ultrasonography. We categorized the upper 20% of each measurement as a high level of atherosclerosis and evaluated these variables across clinically relevant Framingham CHD risk score strata (low, intermediate, and high risk). In age-adjusted analyses in men and women, correlations across CMR aortic plaque, CAC, TAC, and C-IMT were low (maximum r = 0.30 for CAC:TAC in women, p or=2 measurements. However, different participants were identified as having high atherosclerosis by each modality. For example, in a comparison of the overlap across CMR aortic plaque, CAC, and C-IMT, only 4% of men and 16% of women were classified as having high atherosclerosis on all 3 measurements. In conclusion, in a community-based sample, correlations among subclinical atherosclerosis test results are low, and a substantial proportion has high levels of subclinical atherosclerosis detected on >or=2 imaging tests.

  12. Metabolic health reduces risk of obesity-related cancer in framingham study adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Lynn L; Chadid, Susan; Singer, Martha R; Kreger, Bernard E; Denis, Gerald V

    2014-10-01

    It is unknown whether the risk for obesity-related cancers differs between metabolically unhealthy and healthy overweight/obese adults. Data on body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and random blood glucose in Framingham Heart Study adults (n = 3,763) ages 55 to 69 years were used to estimate risks of obesity-related cancers (n = 385), including postmenopausal breast, female reproductive, colon, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, and kidney cancers, as well as esophageal adenocarcinomas. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate risk for obesity-related cancers associated with body fat and metabolic health (as defined by glucose levels) among subjects in three risk groups (vs. referent group with normal weight/normal glucose): normal weight/elevated glucose, overweight/normal glucose, and overweight/elevated glucose. Overweight adults [BMI ≥ 25 or WHtR ≥ 0.51 (men) and ≥0.57 (women)] with elevated glucose (≥125 mg/dL) had a statistically significant 2-fold increased risk of developing obesity-related cancer, whereas overweight adults with normal glucose had a 50% increased risk. Normal-weight adults with elevated glucose had no excess cancer risk. The effects of BMI and WHtR were independent of one another. Finally, overweight women with elevated blood glucose had a 2.6-fold increased risk [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.4-4.9] of female reproductive (cervical, endometrial, uterine cancers) and postmenopausal breast cancers, whereas overweight women with normal glucose levels had only a 70% increased risk (95% CI, 1.1-2.5). These results suggest that cancer risk may be lower among metabolically healthy overweight/obese older adults than among overweight/obese adults with metabolic dysfunction. Metabolic dysfunction and obesity act synergistically to increase cancer risk. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

  13. Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Destefano, Anita L; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A; Decarli, Charles; Ikram, M Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, W T; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J

    2014-02-01

    Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (Pstroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

  14. Comprehensive coronary risk determination in primary prevention: an imaging and clinical based definition combining computed tomographic coronary artery calcium score and national cholesterol education program risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasir, Khurram; Vasamreddy, Chandra; Blumenthal, Roger S; Rumberger, John A

    2006-06-16

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality and a major cause of morbidity. Coronary heart disease (CHD) accounts for nearly half of all CVD deaths. Currently estimation of risk in primary prevention is based on the Framingham risk equations, which inputs traditional risk factors and is helpful in predicting the development of CHD in asymptomatic individuals. However many individuals suffer events in the absence of established risk factors for atherosclerosis and broad based population risk estimations may have little precision when applied to a given individual. To meet the challenge of CHD risk assessment, several tools have been developed to identify atherosclerotic disease in its preclinical stages. This paper aims to incorporate information from coronary artery calcification (CAC) scoring from a computed tomographic "heartscan" (using Electron Beam Tomography (EBT) as the validated prototype) along with current Framingham risk profiling in order to refine risk on an absolute scale by combining imaging and clinical data to affect a more comprehensive calculation of absolute risk in a given individual. For CAC scores above the 75th percentile but or =55 years, women> or =65 years) a CAC = 0 will result in an age point score corresponding to the age-group whose median CAC score is zero i.e., 40-44 years for men and 55-59 years for women. The utilization of CAC scores allows the inclusion of sub-clinical disease definition into the context of modifiable risk factors as well as identifies high-risk individuals requiring aggressive treatment.

  15. Long‐term Cardiovascular Risks Associated With an Elevated Heart Rate: The Framingham Heart Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Jennifer E.; Larson, Martin G.; Ghorbani, Anahita; Cheng, Susan; Coglianese, Erin E.; Vasan, Ramachandran S.; Wang, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Higher heart rate has been associated with an adverse prognosis, but most prior studies focused on individuals with known cardiovascular disease or examined a limited number of outcomes. We sought to examine the association of baseline heart rate with both fatal and nonfatal outcomes during 2 decades of follow‐up. Methods and Results Our study included 4058 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age 55 years, 56% women). Cox models were performed with multivariable adjustment for clinical risk factors and physical activity. A total of 708 participants developed incident cardiovascular disease (303 heart failure, 343 coronary heart disease, and 216 stroke events), 48 received a permanent pacemaker, and 1186 died. Baseline heart rate was associated with incident cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] 1.15 per 1 SD [11 bpm] increase in heart rate, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.24, P=0.0002), particularly heart failure (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.48, Pheart rate was also associated with higher all‐cause (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.24, Pheart rate abated or increased. In contrast, individuals with a higher heart rate had a lower risk of requiring permanent pacemaker placement (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.79, P=0.001). Conclusions Individuals with a higher heart rate are at elevated long‐term risk for cardiovascular events, in particular, heart failure, and all‐cause death. On the other hand, a higher heart rate is associated with a lower risk of future permanent pacemaker implantation. PMID:24811610

  16. Midlife Hypertension Risk and Cognition in the Non-Demented Oldest Old: Framingham Heart Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishtala, Arvind; Himali, Jayandra J; Beiser, Alexa; Murabito, Joanne M; Seshadri, Sudha; Wolf, Philip A; Au, Rhoda

    2015-01-01

    Midlife cardiovascular risk, hypertension (HTN) in particular, has been related cross-sectionally to poorer neuropsychological (NP) performance in middle age and older adults. This study investigated whether a similar relationship persists between midlife HTN or systolic blood pressure (SBP) and NP performance approximately 30 years later. 378 Framingham stroke and dementia-free Original cohort participants, with HTN and SBP ascertained between 50-60 years of age (mean age 55 ± 1, 65% women), were administered a NP assessment at age ≥80 years. Tests included Logical Memory, Visual Reproduction, Paired Associate, Hooper Visual Organization Test, Trail Making A & B, Digit Span Forward and Backward, Controlled Word Association Test (COWAT), and Similarities. Multivariable linear regression, adjusted for age, time interval between risk factor and NP testing, gender, and premorbid intelligence, assessed association between midlife HTN/SBP and NP outcomes. Midlife HTN was not significantly associated with NP outcome measures. Midlife SBP was associated with poorer Digit Span Forward and COWAT performance (p <  0.05). No significant interaction of age on HTN/SBP to NP associations was found. There was a significant interaction between ApoE4 status and SBP in their effects on COWAT (pinteraction = 0.074); SBP was negatively associated with COWAT only in those with the ApoE4 allele (p = 0.025). While midlife HTN is not associated with late life cognitive impairment, midlife SBP is related to late life attention and verbal fluency impairments, particularly among ApoE4+ individuals. These results offer insight into processes that are operative in the absence of overt cognitive impairment and dementia.

  17. Risk factors for longitudinal bone loss in elderly men and women: the Framingham Osteoporosis Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannan, M T; Felson, D T; Dawson-Hughes, B; Tucker, K L; Cupples, L A; Wilson, P W; Kiel, D P

    2000-04-01

    Few studies have evaluated risk factors for bone loss in elderly women and men. Thus, we examined risk factors for 4-year longitudinal change in bone mineral density (BMD) at the hip, radius, and spine in elders. Eight hundred elderly women and men from the population-based Framingham Osteoporosis Study had BMD assessed in 1988-1989 and again in 1992-1993. BMD was measured at femoral neck, trochanter, Ward's area, radial shaft, ultradistal radius, and lumbar spine using Lunar densitometers. We examined the relation of the following factors at baseline to percent BMD loss: age, weight, change in weight, height, smoking, caffeine, alcohol use, physical activity, serum 25-OH vitamin D, calcium intake, and current estrogen replacement in women. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted with simultaneous adjustment for all variables. Mean age at baseline was 74 years +/-4.5 years (range, 67-90 years). Average 4-year BMD loss for women (range, 3.4-4.8%) was greater than the loss for men (range, 0.2-3.6%) at all sites; however, BMD fell with age in both elderly women and elderly men. For women, lower baseline weight, weight loss in interim, and greater alcohol use were associated with BMD loss. Women who gained weight during the interim gained BMD or had little change in BMD. For women, current estrogen users had less bone loss than nonusers; at the femoral neck, nonusers lost up to 2.7% more BMD. For men, lower baseline weight and weight loss also were associated with BMD loss. Men who smoked cigarettes at baseline lost more BMD at the trochanter site. Surprisingly, bone loss was not affected by caffeine, physical activity, serum 25-OH vitamin D, or calcium intake. Risk factors consistently associated with bone loss in elders include female sex, thinness, and weight loss, while weight gain appears to protect against bone loss for both men and women. This population-based study suggests that current estrogen use may help to maintain bone in women, whereas current

  18. Evaluating the Framingham hypertension risk prediction model in young adults: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, April P; Lewis, Cora E; Jacobs, David R; Peralta, Carmen A; Steffen, Lyn M; Bower, Julie K; Person, Sharina D; Muntner, Paul

    2013-12-01

    A prediction model was developed in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) to evaluate the short-term risk of hypertension. Our goal was to determine the predictive ability of the FHS hypertension model in a cohort of young adults advancing into middle age and compare it with the predictive ability of prehypertension and individual components of the FHS model. We studied 4388 participants, aged 18 to 30 years without hypertension at baseline, enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study, who participated in 2 consecutive examinations occurring 5 years apart between the baseline (1985-1986) and year 25 examination (2010-2011). Weibull regression was used to assess the association of the FHS model overall, individual components of the FHS model, and prehypertension with incident hypertension. During the 25-year follow-up period, 1179 participants developed incident hypertension. The FHS hypertension model (c-index=0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.85) performed well in discriminating those who did and did not develop hypertension and was better than prehypertension alone (c-index=0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.73). The predicted risk from the FHS hypertension model was systematically lower than the observed hypertension incidence initially (χ(2)=249.4; Padults with a high risk for developing hypertension.

  19. Estimation of 10-Year Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Nepalese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: Framingham Versus United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokharel, Daya Ram; Khadka, Dipendra; Sigdel, Manoj; Yadav, Naval Kishor; Sapkota, Lokendra Bahadur; Kafle, Ramchandra; Nepal, Sarthak; Sapkota, Ravindra Mohan; Choudhary, Niraj

    2015-08-01

    Predicting future coronary heart disease (CHD) risk with the help of a validated risk prediction function helps clinicians identify diabetic patients at high risk and provide them with appropriate preventive medicine. The aim of this study is to estimate and compare 10-year CHD risks of Nepalese diabetic patients using two most common risk prediction functions: The Framingham risk equation and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine that are yet to be validated for Nepalese population. We conducted a hospital-based, cross-sectional study on 524 patients with type 2 diabetes. Baseline and biochemical variables of individual patients were recorded and CHD risks were estimated by the Framingham and UKPDS risk prediction functions. Estimated risks were categorized as low, medium, and high. The estimated CHD risks were compared using kappa statistics, Pearson's bivariate correlation, Bland-Altman plots, and multiple regression analysis. The mean 10-year CHD risks estimated by the Framingham and UKPDS risk functions were 17.7 ± 12.1 and 16.8 ± 15 (bias: 0.88, P > 0.05), respectively, and were always higher in males and older age groups (P < 0.001). The two risk functions showed moderate convergent validity in predicting CHD risks, but differed in stratifying them and explaining the patients' risk profile. The Framingham equation predicted higher risk for patients usually below 70 years and showed better association with their current risk profile than the UKPDS risk engine. Based on the predicted risk, Nepalese diabetic patients, particularly those associated with increased numbers of risk factors, bear higher risk of future CHDs. Since this study is a cross-sectional one and uses externally validated risk functions, Nepalese clinicians should use them with caution, and preferably in combination with other guidelines, while making important medical decisions in preventive therapy of CHD.

  20. Estimation of 10-year risk of coronary heart disease in nepalese patients with type 2 diabetes: Framingham versus United Kingdom prospective diabetes study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daya Ram Pokharel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Predicting future coronary heart disease (CHD risk with the help of a validated risk prediction function helps clinicians identify diabetic patients at high risk and provide them with appropriate preventive medicine. Aim: The aim of this study is to estimate and compare 10-year CHD risks of Nepalese diabetic patients using two most common risk prediction functions: The Framingham risk equation and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS risk engine that are yet to be validated for Nepalese population. Patients and Methods: We conducted a hospital-based, cross-sectional study on 524 patients with type 2 diabetes. Baseline and biochemical variables of individual patients were recorded and CHD risks were estimated by the Framingham and UKPDS risk prediction functions. Estimated risks were categorized as low, medium, and high. The estimated CHD risks were compared using kappa statistics, Pearson′s bivariate correlation, Bland-Altman plots, and multiple regression analysis. Results: The mean 10-year CHD risks estimated by the Framingham and UKPDS risk functions were 17.7 ± 12.1 and 16.8 ± 15 (bias: 0.88, P > 0.05, respectively, and were always higher in males and older age groups (P < 0.001. The two risk functions showed moderate convergent validity in predicting CHD risks, but differed in stratifying them and explaining the patients′ risk profile. The Framingham equation predicted higher risk for patients usually below 70 years and showed better association with their current risk profile than the UKPDS risk engine. Conclusions: Based on the predicted risk, Nepalese diabetic patients, particularly those associated with increased numbers of risk factors, bear higher risk of future CHDs. Since this study is a cross-sectional one and uses externally validated risk functions, Nepalese clinicians should use them with caution, and preferably in combination with other guidelines, while making important medical decisions in

  1. Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk by using Framingham Risk Equation amongst the Residents of Ahmedabad City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonal Parikh, Manish Patel, Hemant Tiwari, D V Bala, Bhavin Joshi

    2013-01-01

    Results: The median 10-year probability of CHD was 2.9% (5.6% for men and 1.8% for women. One third (33.4% population above 30 years had CVD risk 20% or more. Males had significantly higher CVD risk as compared to females (20% of males & 4.5% of female had high CVD risk. Cardiovascular disease risk was also person with inadequate sleep & in executives. Conclusion- Higher risk in males & unskilled worker was mainly due to tobacco addiction while in executives it was mainly due to diabetes & obesity.

  2. Young Adult Exposure to Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Risk of Events Later in Life: The Framingham Offspring Study.

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    Mark J Pletcher

    Full Text Available It is unclear whether coronary heart disease (CHD risk factor exposure during early adulthood contributes to CHD risk later in life. Our objective was to analyze whether extent of early adult exposures to systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP and low-and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL, HDL are independent predictors of CHD events later in life.We used all available measurements of SBP, DBP, LDL, and HDL collected over 40 years in the Framingham Offspring Study to estimate risk factor trajectories, starting at age 20 years, for all participants. Average early adult (age 20-39 exposure to each risk factor was then estimated, and used to predict CHD events (myocardial infarction or CHD death after age 40, with adjustment for risk factor exposures later in life (age 40+. 4860 participants contributed an average of 6.3 risk factor measurements from in-person examinations and 24.5 years of follow-up after age 40, and 510 had a first CHD event. Early adult exposures to high SBP, DBP, LDL or low HDL were associated with 8- to 30-fold increases in later life CHD event rates, but were also strongly correlated with risk factor levels later in life. After adjustment for later life levels and other risk factors, early adult DBP and LDL remained strongly associated with later life risk. Compared with DBP≤70 mmHg, adjusted hazard ratios (HRs were 2.1 (95% confidence interval: 0.8-5.7 for DBP = 71-80, 2.6 (0.9-7.2 for DBP = 81-90, and 3.6 (1.2-11 for DBP>90 (p-trend = 0.019. Compared with LDL≤100 mg/dl, adjusted HRs were 1.5 (0.9-2.6 for LDL = 101-130, 2.2 (1.2-4.0 for LDL = 131-160, and 2.4 (1.2-4.7 for LDL>160 (p-trend = 0.009. While current levels of SBP and HDL were also associated with CHD events, we did not detect an independent association with early adult exposure to either of these risk factors.Using a mixed modeling approach to estimation of young adult exposures with trajectory analysis, we detected independent associations

  3. Cardiovascular disease risk score prediction models for women and its applicability to Asians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Louise Gh; Dhaliwal, Satvinder S; Welborn, Timothy A; Thompson, Peter L; Maycock, Bruce R; Kerr, Deborah A; Lee, Andy H; Bertolatti, Dean; Clark, Karin M; Naheed, Rakhshanda; Coorey, Ranil; Della, Phillip R

    2014-01-01

    Although elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are associated with a higher risk of developing heart conditions across all ethnic groups, variations exist between groups in the distribution and association of risk factors, and also risk levels. This study assessed the 10-year predicted risk in a multiethnic cohort of women and compared the differences in risk between Asian and Caucasian women. Information on demographics, medical conditions and treatment, smoking behavior, dietary behavior, and exercise patterns were collected. Physical measurements were also taken. The 10-year risk was calculated using the Framingham model, SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) risk chart for low risk and high risk regions, the general CVD, and simplified general CVD risk score models in 4,354 females aged 20-69 years with no heart disease, diabetes, or stroke at baseline from the third Australian Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Country of birth was used as a surrogate for ethnicity. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare risk levels between ethnic groups. Asian women generally had lower risk of CVD when compared to Caucasian women. The 10-year predicted risk was, however, similar between Asian and Australian women, for some models. These findings were consistent with Australian CVD prevalence. In summary, ethnicity needs to be incorporated into CVD risk assessment. Australian standards used to quantify risk and treat women could be applied to Asians in the interim. The SCORE risk chart for low-risk regions and Framingham risk score model for incidence are recommended. The inclusion of other relevant risk variables such as obesity, poor diet/nutrition, and low levels of physical activity may improve risk estimation.

  4. Longitudinal association of dairy consumption with the changes in blood pressure and the risk of incident hypertension: the Framingham Heart Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    We aimed to examine the longitudinal association of dairy consumption with the changes in blood pressure (BP) and the risk of incident hypertension (HTN) among adults. This study included 2636 Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort members who participated in the 5th through 8th examinations (1991-...

  5. The development of the Mediterranean-style dietary pattern score and its application to the American diet in the Framingham Offspring Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumawas, Marcella E; Dwyer, Johanna T; McKeown, Nicola M; Meigs, James B; Rogers, Gail; Jacques, Paul F

    2009-06-01

    Previous Mediterranean diet scores were simple to apply but may not be appropriate for non-Mediterranean populations. We developed a Mediterranean-Style Dietary Pattern Score (MSDPS) to assess the conformity of an individual's diet to a traditional Mediterranean-style diet. The MSDPS is based on the recommended intakes of 13 food groups in the Mediterranean diet pyramid. Each food group is scored from 0 to 10 depending on the degree of correspondence with recommendations. Exceeding the recommendations results in a lower score proportional to the degree of overconsumption. The sum of the component scores is standardized to a 0-100 scale and weighted by the proportion of energy consumed from Mediterranean diet foods. We applied the MSDPS to dietary data collected at the 7th examination of the Framingham Offspring Cohort and tested the content validity of the score against selected nutrients known to be associated with the Mediterranean-style dietary pattern. The mean MSDPS was 24.8 (range, 3.1-60.7). Participants with a higher MSDPS were more likely to be women, older, multivitamin users, to have lower BMI and waist circumferences, and less likely to be current smokers. The MSDPS demonstrated content validity through expected positive associations with intakes of dietary fiber, (n-3) fatty acids, antioxidant vitamins, calcium, magnesium, and potassium, and inverse associations with those of added sugar, glycemic index, saturated fat, and trans-fat, and the (n-6):(n-3) fatty acid ratio. The MSDPS is a useful instrument to measure overall diet quality according to the principles of a Mediterranean-style dietary pattern.

  6. Disclosure Risk from Factor Scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drechsler Jörg

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Remote access can be a powerful tool for providing data access for external researchers. Since the microdata never leave the secure environment of the data-providing agency, alterations of the microdata can be kept to a minimum. Nevertheless, remote access is not free from risk. Many statistical analyses that do not seem to provide disclosive information at first sight can be used by sophisticated intruders to reveal sensitive information. For this reason the list of allowed queries is usually restricted in a remote setting. However, it is not always easy to identify problematic queries. We therefore strongly support the argument that has been made by other authors: that all queries should be monitored carefully and that any microlevel information should always be withheld. As an illustrative example, we use factor score analysis, for which the output of interest - the factor loading of the variables - seems to be unproblematic. However, as we show in the article, the individual factor scores that are usually returned as part of the output can be used to reveal sensitive information. Our empirical evaluations based on a German establishment survey emphasize that this risk is far from a purely theoretical problem.

  7. A longitudinal analysis of the risk factors for diabetes and coronary heart disease in the Framingham Offspring Study

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    Bhargava Alok

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The recent trends in sedentary life-styles and weight gain are likely to contribute to chronic conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. The temporal sequence and pathways underlying these conditions can be modeled using the knowledge from the biomedical and social sciences. Methods The Framingham Offspring Study in the U.S. collected information on 5124 subjects at baseline, and 8, 12, 16, and 20 years after the baseline. Dynamic random effects models were estimated for the subjects' weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure using 4 time observations. Logistic and probit models were estimated for the probability of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD events. Results The subjects' age, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and cigarettes smoked were important predictors of the risk factors. Moreover, weight and height were found to differentially affect the probabilities of diabetes and CHD events; body weight was positively associated with the risk of diabetes while taller individuals had lower risk of CHD events. Conclusion The results showed the importance of joint modeling of body weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure that are risk factors for diabetes and CHD events. Lower body weight and LDL concentrations and higher HDL levels achieved via physical exercise are likely to reduce diabetes and CHD events.

  8. Does job strain increase the risk for coronary heart disease or death in men and women? The Framingham Offspring Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaker, Elaine D; Sullivan, Lisa M; Kelly-Hayes, Margaret; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Benjamin, Emelia J

    2004-05-15

    Conflicting findings in the literature have made the relation between job strain and coronary heart disease (CHD) controversial. The effect of high job strain on the 10-year incidence of CHD and total mortality was examined in men and women participating in the Framingham Offspring Study; 3,039 participants, 1,711 men and 1,328 women, aged 18-77 years, were examined between 1984 and 1987 and followed for 10 years. Measures of job strain, occupational characteristics, and risk factors for CHD were collected at the baseline examination. Before and after controlling for systolic blood pressure, body mass index, cigarette smoking, diabetes, and the total/high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio in Cox proportional hazards models, the authors found that high job strain was not associated with mortality or incident CHD in either men or women over the follow-up period. Contrary to expectation, women with active job strain (high demands-high control) had a 2.8-fold increased risk of CHD (95% confidence interval: 1.1, 7.2) compared with women with high job strain (high demands-low control). For men, higher education, personal income, and occupational prestige were related to decreased risk of total mortality and CHD. These findings do not support high job strain as a significant risk factor for CHD or death in men or women.

  9. Concordancia entre los modelos de SCORE y Framingham y las ecuaciones AHA/ACC como evaluadores de riesgo cardiovascular

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    Oscar Mauricio Muñoz V

    2017-03-01

    Conclusiones: En la actualidad existe pobre acuerdo entre las diferentes escalas de evaluación del riesgo cardiovascular usadas en Colombia, hecho que conlleva incertidumbre para la toma de decisiones terapéuticas. Los datos de este estudio demuestran la necesidad de validar los modelos de SCORE y AHA/ACC en Colombia y Latinoamérica.

  10. The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

    2015-03-01

    In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. The ability of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cardiovascular risk score to identify rheumatoid arthritis patients with high coronary artery calcification scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawai, Vivian K; Chung, Cecilia P; Solus, Joseph F; Oeser, Annette; Raggi, Paolo; Stein, C Michael

    2015-02-01

    Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease that is underestimated by the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). We undertook this study to test the hypothesis that the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 10-year risk score would perform better than the FRS and the Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) in identifying RA patients known to have elevated cardiovascular risk based on high coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. Among 98 RA patients eligible for risk stratification using the ACC/AHA risk score, we identified 34 patients with high CAC (defined as ≥300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile of expected coronary artery calcium for age, sex, and ethnicity) and compared the ability of the 10-year FRS, RRS, and ACC/AHA risk scores to correctly assign these patients to an elevated risk category. All 3 risk scores were higher in patients with high CAC (P risk category was similar among the 3 scores (FRS 32%, RRS 32%, ACC/AHA risk score 41%) (P = 0.223). The C statistics for the FRS, RRS, and ACC/AHA risk score predicting the presence of high CAC were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.65, respectively. The ACC/AHA 10-year risk score does not offer any advantage compared to the traditional FRS and RRS in the identification of RA patients with elevated risk as determined by high CAC. The ACC/AHA risk score assigned almost 60% of patients with high CAC to a low risk category. Risk scores and standard risk prediction models used in the general population do not adequately identify many RA patients with elevated cardiovascular risk.

  12. Level of physical activity and the risk of radiographic and symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in the elderly: the Framingham study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAlindon, T E; Wilson, P W; Aliabadi, P; Weissman, B; Felson, D T

    1999-02-01

    Because osteoarthritis may be caused by "wear and tear," we examined the association between level of physical activity and risk of knee osteoarthritis in the elderly. Eligible subjects were participants in the Framingham Heart Study cohort who had radiographically normal knees at biennial exam 18 (1983-1985) and who also completed a physical activity questionnaire at exam 20 (1988-1989). Follow-up knee radiographs were obtained at biennial exam 22 (1992-1993). The study outcomes were the development of incident radiographic or symptomatic knee osteoarthritis between the baseline and follow-up exams. The number of hours per day of heavy physical activity was associated with the risk of incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis (odds ratio = 1.3 per hour, 95% confidence limits 1.1-1.6, P for trend = 0.006). Adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, weight loss, knee injury, health status, total calorie intake, and smoking strengthened this association (eg, odds ratio for > or = 4 hours heavy physical activity/day compared with no heavy physical activity = 7.0, 95% confidence limits 2.4-20, P for trend = 0.0002). Risk was greatest among individuals in the upper tertile of body mass index (odds ratio for > or = 3 hours/day of heavy physical activity = 13.0, 95% confidence limits 3.3-51). For incident symptomatic knee osteoarthritis, the results were similar, although the number of cases was small. No effects on these outcomes were observed from moderate and light physical activity, number of blocks walked, or number of flights of stairs climbed daily. Heavy physical activity is an important risk factor for the development of knee osteoarthritis in the elderly, especially among obese individuals. Light and moderate activities do not appear to increase risk.

  13. Riesgo cardiovascular según Score de Framingham en los pobladores mayores de 30 años de la Urbanización II etapa, San Antonio de Carapongo, Lima, Perú

    OpenAIRE

    Díaz Orihuela, Sarita Soledad; Montañez Abarca, Marleni; Miranda Limachi, Keila

    2013-01-01

    Objetivo: Determinar el nivel de riesgo cardiovascular utilizando el Score de Framingham en los pobladores mayores de 30 años de la Urb. San Antonio de Carapongo - Etapa II. Material y Métodos: Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, participaron 62 personas mayores de 30 años de edad de la Urb. San Antonio. El instrumento fue Score de Framinghan, el cual consistía en preguntas y la toma de muestras de sangre. Resultados: Del 100% de personas encuestadas un 59.7% presenta riesgo bajo, seguido de u...

  14. Incidence of cardiovascular events after kidney transplantation and cardiovascular risk scores: study protocol

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    Lorenzo-Aguiar Dolores

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the major cause of death after renal transplantation. Not only conventional CVD risk factors, but also transplant-specific risk factors can influence the development of CVD in kidney transplant recipients. The main objective of this study will be to determine the incidence of post-transplant CVD after renal transplantation and related factors. A secondary objective will be to examine the ability of standard cardiovascular risk scores (Framingham, Regicor, SCORE, and DORICA to predict post-transplantation cardiovascular events in renal transplant recipients, and to develop a new score for predicting the risk of CVD after kidney transplantation. Methods/Design Observational prospective cohort study of all kidney transplant recipients in the A Coruña Hospital (Spain in the period 1981-2008 (2059 transplants corresponding to 1794 patients. The variables included will be: donor and recipient characteristics, chronic kidney disease-related risk factors, pre-transplant and post-transplant cardiovascular risk factors, routine biochemistry, and immunosuppressive, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment. The events studied in the follow-up will be: patient and graft survival, acute rejection episodes and cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, invasive coronary artery therapy, cerebral vascular events, new-onset angina, congestive heart failure, rhythm disturbances and peripheral vascular disease. Four cardiovascular risk scores were calculated at the time of transplantation: the Framingham score, the European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE equation, and the REGICOR (Registre Gironí del COR (Gerona Heart Registry, and DORICA (Dyslipidemia, Obesity, and Cardiovascular Risk functions. The cumulative incidence of cardiovascular events will be analyzed by competing risk survival methods. The clinical relevance of different variables will be calculated using the ARR (Absolute Risk

  15. Does present use of cardiovascular medication reflect elevated cardiovascular risk scores estimated ten years ago? A population based longitudinal observational study

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    Straand Jørund

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is desirable that those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease should have priority for preventive measures, eg. treatment with prescription drugs to modify their risk. We wanted to investigate to what extent present use of cardiovascular medication (CVM correlates with cardiovascular risk estimated by three different risk scores (Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK ten years ago. Methods Prospective logitudinal observational study of 20 252 participants in The Hordaland Health Study born 1950-57, not using CVM in 1997-99. Prescription data obtained from The Norwegian Prescription Database in 2008. Results 26% of men and 22% of women aged 51-58 years had started to use some CVM during the previous decade. As a group, persons using CVM scored significantly higher on the risk algorithms Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK compared to those not treated. 16-20% of men and 20-22% of women with risk scores below the high-risk thresholds for the three risk scores were treated with CVM, while 60-65% of men and 25-45% of women with scores above the high-risk thresholds received no treatment. Among women using CVM, only 2.2% (NORRISK, 4.4% (SCORE and 14.5% (Framingham had risk scores above the high-risk values. Low education, poor self-reported general health, muscular pains, mental distress (in females only and a family history of premature cardiovascular disease correlated with use of CVM. Elevated blood pressure was the single factor most strongly predictive of CVM treatment. Conclusion Prescription of CVM to middle-aged individuals by large seems to occur independently of estimated total cardiovascular risk, and this applies especially to females.

  16. Cardiovascular disease risk score prediction models for women and its applicability to Asians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goh LGH

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Louise GH Goh,1 Satvinder S Dhaliwal,1 Timothy A Welborn,2 Peter L Thompson,2–4 Bruce R Maycock,1 Deborah A Kerr,1 Andy H Lee,1 Dean Bertolatti,1 Karin M Clark,1 Rakhshanda Naheed,1 Ranil Coorey,1 Phillip R Della5 1School of Public Health, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia; 2Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, Perth, WA, Australia; 3School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; 4Harry Perkins Institute for Medical Research, Perth, WA, Australia; 5School of Nursing and Midwifery, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia Purpose: Although elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors are associated with a higher risk of developing heart conditions across all ethnic groups, variations exist between groups in the distribution and association of risk factors, and also risk levels. This study assessed the 10-year predicted risk in a multiethnic cohort of women and compared the differences in risk between Asian and Caucasian women. Methods: Information on demographics, medical conditions and treatment, smoking behavior, dietary behavior, and exercise patterns were collected. Physical measurements were also taken. The 10-year risk was calculated using the Framingham model, SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation risk chart for low risk and high risk regions, the general CVD, and simplified general CVD risk score models in 4,354 females aged 20–69 years with no heart disease, diabetes, or stroke at baseline from the third Australian Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Country of birth was used as a surrogate for ethnicity. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare risk levels between ethnic groups. Results: Asian women generally had lower risk of CVD when compared to Caucasian women. The 10-year predicted risk was, however, similar between Asian and Australian women, for some models. These findings were

  17. Concordance with World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) guidelines for cancer prevention and obesity-related cancer risk in the Framingham Offspring cohort (1991-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarem, Nour; Lin, Yong; Bandera, Elisa V; Jacques, Paul F; Parekh, Niyati

    2015-02-01

    This prospective cohort study evaluates associations between healthful behaviors consistent with WCRF/AICR cancer prevention guidelines and obesity-related cancer risk, as a third of cancers are estimated to be preventable. The study sample consisted of adults from the Framingham Offspring cohort (n = 2,983). From 1991 to 2008, 480 incident doctor-diagnosed obesity-related cancers were identified. Data on diet, measured by a food frequency questionnaire, anthropometric measures, and self-reported physical activity, collected in 1991 was used to construct a 7-component score based on recommendations for body fatness, physical activity, foods that promote weight gain, plant foods, animal foods, alcohol, and food preservation, processing, and preparation. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate associations between the computed score, its components, and subcomponents in relation to obesity-related cancer risk. The overall score was not associated with obesity-related cancer risk after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, energy, and preexisting conditions (HR 0.94, 95 % CI 0.86-1.02). When score components were evaluated separately, for every unit increment in the alcohol score, there was 29 % lower risk of obesity-related cancers (HR 0.71, 95 % CI 0.51-0.99) and 49-71 % reduced risk of breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers. Every unit increment in the subcomponent score for non-starchy plant foods (fruits, vegetables, and legumes) among participants who consume starchy vegetables was associated with 66 % reduced risk of colorectal cancer (HR 0.44, 95 % CI 0.22-0.88). Lower alcohol consumption and a plant-based diet consistent with the cancer prevention guidelines were associated with reduced risk of obesity-related cancers in this population.

  18. Concordance with World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) guidelines for cancer prevention and obesity-related cancer risk in the Framingham Offspring cohort (1991–2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarem, Nour; Lin, Yong; Bandera, Elisa V.; Jacques, Paul F.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This prospective cohort study evaluates associations between healthful behaviors consistent with WCRF/AICR cancer prevention guidelines and obesity-related cancer risk, as a third of cancers are estimated to be preventable. Methods The study sample consisted of adults from the Framingham Offspring cohort (n = 2,983). From 1991 to 2008, 480 incident doctor-diagnosed obesity-related cancers were identified. Data on diet, measured by a food frequency questionnaire, anthropometric measures, and self-reported physical activity, collected in 1991 was used to construct a 7-component score based on recommendations for body fatness, physical activity, foods that promote weight gain, plant foods, animal foods, alcohol, and food preservation, processing, and preparation. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate associations between the computed score, its components, and subcomponents in relation to obesity-related cancer risk. Results The overall score was not associated with obesity-related cancer risk after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, energy, and preexisting conditions (HR 0.94, 95 % CI 0.86–1.02). When score components were evaluated separately, for every unit increment in the alcohol score, there was 29 % lower risk of obesity-related cancers (HR 0.71, 95 % CI 0.51–0.99) and 49–71 % reduced risk of breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers. Every unit increment in the subcomponent score for non-starchy plant foods (fruits, vegetables, and legumes) among participants who consume starchy vegetables was associated with 66 % reduced risk of colorectal cancer (HR 0.44, 95 % CI 0.22–0.88). Conclusions Lower alcohol consumption and a plant-based diet consistent with the cancer prevention guidelines were associated with reduced risk of obesity-related cancers in this population. PMID:25559553

  19. Plasma resistin, adiponectin, and risk of incident atrial fibrillation : The Framingham Offspring Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, Michel; Sun, Jenny X.; Lubitz, Steven A.; Frankel, David S.; Vasan, Ramachandran S.; Levy, Daniel; Magnani, Jared W.; Sullivan, Lisa M.; Meigs, James B.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Benjamin, Emelia J.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We sought to investigate whether higher concentrations of resistin and lower concentrations of adiponectin relate to incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and whether this association is mediated by AF risk factors and inflammation. Resistin and adiponectin are adipokines that have been asso

  20. Diet quality and obesity in women: the Framingham Nutrition Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolongevicz, Dolores M; Zhu, Lei; Pencina, Michael J; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Newby, P K; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Millen, Barbara E

    2010-04-01

    Obesity affects one in three American adult women and is associated with overall mortality and major morbidities. A composite diet index to evaluate total diet quality may better assess the complex relationship between diet and obesity, providing insights for nutrition interventions. The purpose of the present investigation was to determine whether diet quality, defined according to the previously validated Framingham nutritional risk score (FNRS), was associated with the development of overweight or obesity in women. Over 16 years, we followed 590 normal-weight women (BMI Framingham Offspring and Spouse Study who presented without CVD, cancer or diabetes at baseline. The nineteen-nutrient FNRS derived from mean ranks of nutrient intakes from 3 d dietary records was used to assess nutritional risk. The outcome was development of overweight or obesity (BMI > or = 25 kg/m2) during follow-up. In a stepwise multiple logistic regression model adjusted for age, physical activity and smoking status, the FNRS was directly related to overweight or obesity (P for trend = 0.009). Women with lower diet quality (i.e. higher nutritional risk scores) were significantly more likely to become overweight or obese (OR 1.76; 95 % CI 1.16, 2.69) compared with those with higher diet quality. Diet quality, assessed using a comprehensive composite nutritional risk score, predicted development of overweight or obesity. This finding suggests that overall diet quality be considered a key component in planning and implementing programmes for obesity risk reduction and treatment recommendations.

  1. MODELING CREDIT RISK THROUGH CREDIT SCORING

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

    2014-01-01

    Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

  2. Security Risk Scoring Incorporating Computers' Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eli Weintraub

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available A framework of a Continuous Monitoring System (CMS is presented, having new improved capabilities. The system uses the actual real-time configuration of the system and environment characterized by a Configuration Management Data Base (CMDB which includes detailed information of organizational database contents, security and privacy specifications. The Common Vulnerability Scoring Systems' (CVSS algorithm produces risk scores incorporating information from the CMDB. By using the real updated environmental characteristics the system enables achieving accurate scores compared to existing practices. Framework presentation includes systems' design and an illustration of scoring computations.

  3. Evaluation of the "medication fall risk score".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdani, Cyrus; Hall, Scott

    2017-01-01

    Results of a study evaluating the predictive validity of a fall screening tool in hospitalized patients are reported. Administrative claims data from two hospitals were analyzed to determine the discriminatory ability of the "medication fall risk score" (RxFS), a medication review fall-risk screening tool that is designed for use in conjunction with nurse-administered tools such as the Morse Fall Scale (MFS). Through analysis of data on administered medications and documented falls in a population of adults who underwent fall-risk screening at hospital admission over a 15-month period (n = 33,058), the predictive value of admission MFS scores, alone or in combination with retrospectively calculated RxFS-based risk scores, was assessed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis were used to evaluate improvements in risk prediction with the addition of RxFS data to the prediction model. The area under the ROC curve for the predictive model for falls compromising both MFS and RxFS scores was computed as 0.8014, which was greater than the area under the ROC curve associated with use of the MFS alone (0.7823, p = 0.0030). Screening based on MFS scores alone had 81.25% sensitivity and 61.37% specificity. Combined use of RxFS and MFS scores resulted in 82.42% sensitivity and 66.65% specificity (NRI = 0.0587, p = 0.0003). Reclassification of fall risk based on coadministration of the MFS and the RxFS tools resulted in a modest improvement in specificity without compromising sensitivity. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. RISK FACTOR DIAGNOSTIC SCORE IN DIABETIC FOOT

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    Mohamed Shameem P. M

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION Diabetic foot ulcers vary in their clinical presentation and nature of severity and therefore create a challenging problem to the treating surgeon regarding the prediction of the clinical course and the end result of the treatment. Clinical studies have shown that there are certain risk factors for the progression of foot ulcers in diabetics and it may therefore be possible to predict the course of an ulcer foot at presentation itself, thus instituting proper therapy without delay. Spoken otherwise clinical scoring may tell that this particular ulcer is having highest chance of amputation, then one may be able to take an early decision for the same and avoid the septic complications, inconvenience to the patient, long hospital stay and cost of treatments. AIM OF THE STUDY Aim of the study is to evaluate the above-mentioned scoring system in predicting the course the diabetic foot ulcers. MATERIALS AND METHODS 50 patients with Diabetic Foot attending the OPD of Department of Surgery of Government Hospital attached to Calicut Medical College are included in the present study. After thorough history taking and clinical examination, six risk factors like Age, pedal vessels, renal function, neuropathy, radiological findings and ulcers were observed in the patients by giving certain scoring points to each of them. The total number of points scored by the patients at the time of admission or OPD treatment was correlated with the final outcome in these patients, whether leading to amputation or conservative management. All the data was analysed using standard statistical methods. OBSERVATIONS AND RESULTS There were 12 females and 38 males with a female to male ratio 1:3.1. All were aged above 30 years. Twenty-four (48% of them were between 30-60 years and twenty six (52% were above 60 years. 10 patients were treated conservatively with risk score range: 10 to 35. Six had single toe loss with risk score: 25 to 35. Six had multiple toe loss

  5. What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

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    Pletcher Mark J

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female, we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance, her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years. In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy.

  6. Therapeutic implications of selecting the SCORE (European versus the D'AGOSTINO (American risk charts for cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

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    Giné-Garriga Maria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No comparisons have been made of scales estimating cardiovascular mortality and overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The study objectives were to assess the agreement between the Framingham-D'Agostino cardiovascular risk (CVR scale and the chart currently recommended in Europe (SCORE with regard to identification of patients with high CVR, and to describe the discrepancies between them and the attendant implications for the treatment of hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. Methods A total of 474 hypertensive patients aged 40–65 years monitored in primary care were enrolled into the study. CVR was assessed using the Framingham-D'Agostino scale, which estimates the overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk, and the SCORE chart, which estimates the cardiovascular mortality risk. Cardiovascular risk was considered to be high for values ≥ 20% and ≥ 5% according to the Framingham-D'Agostino and SCORE charts respectively. Kappa statistics was estimated for agreement in classification of patients with high CVR. The therapeutic recommendations in the 2007 European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention were followed. Results Mean patient age was 54.1 (SD 7.3, and 58.4% were males. A high CVR was found in 17.5% using the SCORE chart (25.3% males, 6.6% females and in 32.7% using the D'Agostino method (56.9% males, 12,7% females. Kappa coefficient was 0.52, and increased to 0.68 when the high CVR threshold was established at 29% according to D'Agostino. Hypertensive patients with high SCORE and non-high D'Agostino (1.7% were characterized by an older age, diabetes, and a lower atherogenic index, while the opposite situation (16.9% was associated to males, hyperlipidaemia, and a higher atherogenic index. Variables with a greater weight in discrepancies were sex and smoking. A 32.0% according to SCORE and 33.5% according to D'Agostino would be candidates to receive antihypertensive treatment, and 15.8% and

  7. Commentary on "The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)": Army STARRS: a Framingham-like study of psychological health risk factors in soldiers.

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    Ressler, Kerry J; Schoomaker, Eric B

    2014-01-01

    Although historically the Army suicide rate has been significantly lower than the civilian rate, in 2004, the suicide and accidental death rates began trending upward. By 2008, the Army suicide rate had risen above the national average (20.2 per 100,000). In 2009, 160 active duty Soldiers took their lives, making suicide the third leading cause of death among the Army population. If accidental death, frequently the result of high-risk behavior, is included, then more Soldiers died by their own actions than in combat in 2009. The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) was thus created in 2009 to begin to address these problems. The Army STARRS project is a large consortium of seven different studies to develop data-driven methods for mitigating or preventing suicide behaviors and improving the overall mental health and behavioral functioning of Army Soldiers during and after their Army service. The first research articles from the Army STARRS project were published in late 2013 and early 2014. This work has already begun to outline important facets of risk in the military, and it is helping to drive an empirically derived approach to improvements in understanding mental disorders and risk behavior and to improve prevention and support of mental health and resilience. The Framingham Heart Study, started in the 1940s, marked a watershed event in utilizing large cross-sectional and prospective longitudinal collaborative research to identify and understand risk factors for cardiovascular disease. The Army STARRS project, through its collaborative, prospective, and robust innovative design and implementation, may provide the beginning of a similar scientific cohort in mental disorders. The work of this project will help understand biological and psychological aspects of military service, including those leading to suicide. When coupled with timely feedback to Army leadership, it permits near real-time steps to diagnose, mitigate, and

  8. Cardiovascular risk score and cardiovascular events among airline pilots: a case-control study.

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    Wirawan, I Made Ady; Larsen, Peter D; Aldington, Sarah; Griffiths, Robin F; Ellis, Chris J

    2012-05-01

    A cardiovascular risk prediction score is routinely applied by aviation authorities worldwide. We examined the accuracy of the Framingham-based risk chart used by the New Zealand Civil Aviation Authority in predicting cardiovascular events among airline pilots. A matched case-control design was applied to assess the association of 5-yr cardiovascular risk score and cardiovascular events in Oceania-based airline pilots. Cases were pilots with cardiovascular events as recorded on their medical records. Each case was age and gender matched with four controls that were randomly selected from the pilot population. To collect data before the events, 5-yr retrospective evaluations were conducted. Over a 16-yr study period we identified 15 cases of cardiovascular events, 9 (60%) of which were sudden clinical presentations and only 6 (40%) of which were detected using cardiovascular screening. There were 8 cases (53%) and 16 controls (27%) who had a 5-yr risk of > or = 10-15%. Almost half of the events (7/15) occurred in pilots whose highest 5-yr risk was in the 5-10% range. Cases were 3.91 times more likely to have highest 5-yr risk score of > or =10-15% than controls (OR = 3.91, 95% CI 1.04-16.35). The accuracy of the highest risk scores were moderate (AUC = 0.723, 95% CI 0.583-0.863). The cutoff point of 10% is valid, with a specificity of 0.73, but low sensitivity (0.53). Despite a valid and appropriate cutoff point, the tool had low sensitivity and was unable to predict almost half of the cardiovascular events.

  9. Agreement between the SCORE and D’Agostino Scales for the Classification of High Cardiovascular Risk in Sedentary Spanish Patients

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    Luis García-Ortiz

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: To evaluate agreement between cardiovascular risk in sedentary patients as estimated by the new Framingham-D’Agostino scale and by the SCORE chart, and to describe the patient characteristics associated with the observed disagreement between the scales. Design: A cross-sectional study was undertaken involving a systematic sample of 2,295 sedentary individuals between 40–65 years of age seen for any reason in 56 primary care offices. An estimation was made of the Pearson correlation coefficient and kappa statistic for the classification of high risk subjects (≥20% according to the Framingham-D’Agostino scale, and ≥5% according to SCORE. Polytomous logistic regression models were fitted to identify the variables associated with the discordance between the two scales. Results: The mean risk in males (35% was 19.5% ± 13% with D’Agostino scale, and 3.2% ± 3.3% with SCORE. Among females, they were 8.1% ± 6.8% and 1.2% ± 2.2%, respectively. The correlation between the two scales was 0.874 in males (95% CI: 0.857–0.889 and 0.818 in females (95% CI: 0.800–0.834, while the kappa index was 0.50 in males (95% CI: 0.44%–0.56% and 0.61 in females (95% CI: 0.52%–0.71%. The most frequent disagreement, characterized by high risk according to D’Agostino scale but not according to SCORE, was much more prevalent among males and proved more probable with increasing age and increased LDL-cholesterol, triglyceride and systolic blood pressure values, as well as among those who used antihypertensive drugs and smokers. Conclusions: The quantitative correlation between the two scales is very high. Patient categorization as corresponding to high risk generates disagreements, mainly among males, where agreement between the two classifications is only moderate.

  10. The development of the Mediterranean-Style Dietary Pattern Score and its application to the American diet in the Framingham Offspring Cohort

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    Previous Mediterranean diet scores were simple to apply but may not be appropriate for non-Mediterranean populations. We developed a Mediterranean-Style Dietary Pattern Score (MSDPS) to assess the conformity of an individual’s diet to a traditional Mediterranean-style diet. The MSDPS is based on the...

  11. Structural Equation Modeling for Analyzing Erythrocyte Fatty Acids in Framingham

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    James V. Pottala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Research has shown that several types of erythrocyte fatty acids (i.e., omega-3, omega-6, and trans are associated with risk for cardiovascular diseases. However, there are complex metabolic and dietary relations among fatty acids, which induce correlations that are typically ignored when using them as risk predictors. A latent variable approach could summarize these complex relations into a few latent variable scores for use in statistical models. Twenty-two red blood cell (RBC fatty acids were measured in Framingham (N = 3196. The correlation matrix of the fatty acids was modeled using structural equation modeling; the model was tested for goodness-of-fit and gender invariance. Thirteen fatty acids were summarized by three latent variables, and gender invariance was rejected so separate models were developed for men and women. A score was developed for the polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA latent variable, which explained about 30% of the variance in the data. The PUFA score included loadings in opposing directions among three omega-3 and three omega-6 fatty acids, and incorporated the biosynthetic and dietary relations among them. Whether the PUFA factor score can improve the performance of risk prediction in cardiovascular diseases remains to be tested.

  12. Body Mass Index Genetic Risk Score and Endometrial Cancer Risk.

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    Jennifer Prescott

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS have identified common variants that predispose individuals to a higher body mass index (BMI, an independent risk factor for endometrial cancer. Composite genotype risk scores (GRS based on the joint effect of published BMI risk loci were used to explore whether endometrial cancer shares a genetic background with obesity. Genotype and risk factor data were available on 3,376 endometrial cancer case and 3,867 control participants of European ancestry from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium GWAS. A BMI GRS was calculated by summing the number of BMI risk alleles at 97 independent loci. For exploratory analyses, additional GRSs were based on subsets of risk loci within putative etiologic BMI pathways. The BMI GRS was statistically significantly associated with endometrial cancer risk (P = 0.002. For every 10 BMI risk alleles a woman had a 13% increased endometrial cancer risk (95% CI: 4%, 22%. However, after adjusting for BMI, the BMI GRS was no longer associated with risk (per 10 BMI risk alleles OR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.07; P = 0.78. Heterogeneity by BMI did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.06, and no effect modification was noted by age, GWAS Stage, study design or between studies (P≥0.58. In exploratory analyses, the GRS defined by variants at loci containing monogenic obesity syndrome genes was associated with reduced endometrial cancer risk independent of BMI (per BMI risk allele OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.96; P = 2.1 x 10-5. Possessing a large number of BMI risk alleles does not increase endometrial cancer risk above that conferred by excess body weight among women of European descent. Thus, the GRS based on all current established BMI loci does not provide added value independent of BMI. Future studies are required to validate the unexpected observed relation between monogenic obesity syndrome genetic variants and endometrial cancer risk.

  13. Cluster Individuals Based on Phenotype and Determine the Risk for Atrial Fibrillation in the PREVEND and Framingham Heart Study Populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, Michiel; Geelhoed, Bastiaan; Yin, Xiaoyan; Siland, Joylene; Vermond, Robert; Mulder, Bart A; Van Der Harst, Pim; Hillege, Hans L; Benjamin, Emelia J; Van Gelder, Isabelle C

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) is of importance to improve the early diagnosis and treatment of AF. Latent class analysis takes into account the possible existence of classes of individuals each with shared risk factors, and maybe a better method of incorporating the

  14. Cluster Individuals Based on Phenotype and Determine the Risk for Atrial Fibrillation in the PREVEND and Framingham Heart Study Populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, Michiel; Geelhoed, Bastiaan; Yin, Xiaoyan; Siland, Joylene; Vermond, Robert; Mulder, Bart A; Van Der Harst, Pim; Hillege, Hans L; Benjamin, Emelia J; Van Gelder, Isabelle C

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) is of importance to improve the early diagnosis and treatment of AF. Latent class analysis takes into account the possible existence of classes of individuals each with shared risk factors, and maybe a better method of incorporating the phenoty

  15. Vitamin D deficiency is associated with development of subclinical coronary artery disease in HIV-infected African American cocaine users with low Framingham-defined cardiovascular risk

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    Lai H

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Hong Lai,1 Elliot K Fishman,1 Gary Gerstenblith,2 Richard Moore,2 Jeffrey A Brinker,2 Jeanne C Keruly,2 Shaoguang Chen,3 Barbara Detrick,3 Shenghan Lai1–31Department of Radiology, 2Department of Medicine, 3Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USAAbstract: Chronic cocaine use may lead to premature atherosclerosis, but the prevalence of and risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD in asymptomatic cocaine users have not been reported. The objective of this study was to examine whether vitamin D deficiency is associated with the development of CAD in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-infected African American cocaine users with low CAD risk.Methods: In this prospective follow-up study, we investigated 169 HIV-infected African American cocaine users with low Framingham risk at baseline. The main outcome measures were incidence of subclinical CAD and development of subclinical CAD.Results: Fifty of the 169 African Americans had evidence of subclinical disease on the initial cardiac computed tomography. A second cardiac computed tomography was performed on the 119 African Americans without disease on the first scan. The total sum of person-years of follow-up was 289.6. Subclinical CAD was detected in 11 of these, yielding an overall incidence of 3.80/100 person-years (95% confidence interval 1.90–6.80. Among the factors investigated, only vitamin D deficiency was independently associated with development of subclinical CAD. The study did not find significant associations between CD4 count, HIV viral load, or antiretroviral treatment use and the incidence of subclinical CAD. This study appears to suggest that there is a threshold level of vitamin D (10 ng/mL above which the effect of vitamin D on subclinical CAD is diminished.Conclusion: The incidence of subclinical CAD in HIV-infected African American cocaine users with low CAD risk is high, especially in those with vitamin D deficiency. Well designed

  16. Does low diastolic blood pressure contribute to the risk of recurrent hypertensive cardiovascular disease events? The Framingham Heart Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Stanley S; Gokhale, Sohum S; Chow, Vincent H; Larson, Martin G; Levy, Daniel; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Mitchell, Gary F; Wong, Nathan D

    2015-02-01

    Whether low diastolic blood pressure (DBP) is a risk factor for recurrent cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in persons with isolated systolic hypertension is controversial. We studied 791 individuals (mean age 75 years, 47% female, mean follow-up time: 8±6 years) with DBP pressure on excess risk associated with low DBP, we defined 4 binary groupings of pulse pressure (≥68 versus pressure ≥68 and DBP pressure as an important risk modifier for the adverse effect of low DBP. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  17. Protective effect of total and supplemental vitamin C intake on the risk of hip fracture - A 17-year follow-up from the Framingham Osteoporosis Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietary antioxidants such as vitamin C may play a role in bone health. We evaluated associations of vitamin C intake (total, dietary and supplemental) with incident hip fracture and non-vertebral osteoporotic fracture, over a 15 to 17-y follow-up, in the Framingham Osteoporosis Study. 366 men and 59...

  18. Risk scores-the modern Oracle of Delphi?

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    Kronenberg, Florian; Schwaiger, Johannes P

    2017-03-01

    Recently, 4 new risk scores for the prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events were especially tailored for hemodialysis patients; these scores performed much better than previous scores. Tripepi et al. found that these risk scores were even more predictive for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the measurement of the left ventricular mass index was. Nevertheless, the investigation of left ventricular mass and function has its own place for other reasons.

  19. Race/Ethnic Differences in the Associations of the Framingham Risk Factors with Carotid IMT and Cardiovascular Events.

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    Crystel M Gijsberts

    Full Text Available Clinical manifestations and outcomes of atherosclerotic disease differ between ethnic groups. In addition, the prevalence of risk factors is substantially different. Primary prevention programs are based on data derived from almost exclusively White people. We investigated how race/ethnic differences modify the associations of established risk factors with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events.We used data from an ongoing individual participant meta-analysis involving 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We selected 60,211 participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline with available data on ethnicity (White, Black, Asian or Hispanic. We generated a multivariable linear regression model containing risk factors and ethnicity predicting mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT and a multivariable Cox regression model predicting myocardial infarction or stroke. For each risk factor we assessed how the association with the preclinical and clinical measures of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease was affected by ethnicity.Ethnicity appeared to significantly modify the associations between risk factors and CIMT and cardiovascular events. The association between age and CIMT was weaker in Blacks and Hispanics. Systolic blood pressure associated more strongly with CIMT in Asians. HDL cholesterol and smoking associated less with CIMT in Blacks. Furthermore, the association of age and total cholesterol levels with the occurrence of cardiovascular events differed between Blacks and Whites.The magnitude of associations between risk factors and the presence of atherosclerotic disease differs between race/ethnic groups. These subtle, yet significant differences provide insight in the etiology of cardiovascular disease among race/ethnic groups. These insights aid the race/ethnic-specific implementation of primary prevention.

  20. Lipoprotein(a) levels, apo(a) isoform size, and coronary heart disease risk in the Framingham Offspring Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    The aim of this study was to assess the independent contributions of plasma levels of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)], Lp(a) cholesterol, and of apo(a) isoform size to prospective coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. Plasma Lp(a) and Lp(a) cholesterol levels, and apo(a) isoform size were measured at examinati...

  1. Genetic Risk Score Predicts Late-Life Cognitive Impairment

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    Mariegold E. Wollam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A family history of Alzheimer’s disease is a significant risk factor for its onset, but the genetic risk associated with possessing multiple risk alleles is still poorly understood. Methods. In a sample of 95 older adults (Mean age = 75.1, 64.2% female, we constructed a genetic risk score based on the accumulation of risk alleles in BDNF, COMT, and APOE. A neuropsychological evaluation and consensus determined cognitive status (44 nonimpaired, 51 impaired. Logistic regression was performed to determine whether the genetic risk score predicted cognitive impairment above and beyond that associated with each gene. Results. An increased genetic risk score was associated with a nearly 4-fold increased risk of cognitive impairment (OR = 3.824, P = .013 when including the individual gene polymorphisms as covariates in the model. Discussion. A risk score combining multiple genetic influences may be more useful in predicting late-life cognitive impairment than individual polymorphisms.

  2. RISKS MANAGEMENT. A PROPENSITY SCORE APPLICATION

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    Constangioara Alexandru

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is relatively unexplored in Romania. Although Romanian specialists dwell on theoretical aspects such as the risks classification and the important distinction between risks and uncertainty the practical relevance of the matter is outside existing studies. Present paper uses a dataset of consumer data to build a propensity scorecard based on relevant quantitative modeling.

  3. Genetic Risk Score for Essential Hypertension and Risk of Preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Caitlin J; Saftlas, Audrey F; Spracklen, Cassandra N; Triche, Elizabeth W; Bjonnes, Andrew; Keating, Brendan; Saxena, Richa; Breheny, Patrick J; Dewan, Andrew T; Robinson, Jennifer G; Hoh, Josephine; Ryckman, Kelli K

    2016-01-01

    Preeclampsia is a hypertensive complication of pregnancy characterized by novel onset of hypertension after 20 weeks gestation, accompanied by proteinuria. Epidemiological evidence suggests that genetic susceptibility exists for preeclampsia; however, whether preeclampsia is the result of underlying genetic risk for essential hypertension has yet to be investigated. Based on the hypertensive state that is characteristic of preeclampsia, we aimed to determine if established genetic risk scores (GRSs) for hypertension and blood pressure are associated with preeclampsia. Subjects consisted of 162 preeclamptic cases and 108 normotensive pregnant controls, all of Iowa residence. Subjects' DNA was extracted from buccal swab samples and genotyped on the Affymetrix Genome-wide Human SNP Array 6.0 (Affymetrix, Santa Clara, CA). Missing genotypes were imputed using MaCH and Minimac software. GRSs were calculated for hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) using established genetic risk loci for each outcome. Regression analyses were performed to determine the association between GRS and risk of preeclampsia. These analyses were replicated in an independent US population of 516 cases and 1,097 controls of European ancestry. GRSs for hypertension, SBP, DBP, and MAP were not significantly associated with risk for preeclampsia (P > 0.189). The results of the replication analysis also yielded nonsignificant associations. GRSs for hypertension and blood pressure are not associated with preeclampsia, suggesting that an underlying predisposition to essential hypertension is not on the causal pathway of preeclampsia. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder predict creativity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Power, R.A.; Steinberg, S.; Bjornsdottir, G.; Rietveld, C.A.; Abdellaoui, A.; Nivard, M.M.; Johannesson, M.; Galesloot, T.E.; Hottenga, J.J.; Willemsen, G.; Cesarini, D.; Benjamin, D.J.; Magnusson, P.K.; Ullen, F.; Tiemeier, H.; Hofman, A.; Rooij, F.J. van; Walters, G.B.; Sigurdsson, E.; Thorgeirsson, T.E.; Ingason, A.; Helgason, A.; Kong, A.; Kiemeney, B.; Koellinger, P.; Boomsma, D.I.; Gudbjartsson, D.; Stefansson, H.; Stefansson, K.

    2015-01-01

    We tested whether polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder would predict creativity. Higher scores were associated with artistic society membership or creative profession in both Icelandic (P = 5.2 x 10(-6) and 3.8 x 10(-6) for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder scores, respectiv

  5. Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

    2014-12-02

    Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

  6. Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W.; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

    2014-01-01

    Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions. PMID:25404329

  7. Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond; Schrimpf, Paul

    2016-04-01

    "Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of "perfect" risk scoring under a given contract.

  8. Establishing a risk scoring system for predicting erosive esophagitis

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    Hung-Hsu Hung

    2016-09-01

    Conclusion: This simple noninvasive risk scoring system, including factors of age, gender, body mass index, waist circumference, triglyceride, and high-density lipid cholesterol, effectively predicted EE and stratified its incidence.

  9. Genetic Predisposition to Ischemic Stroke: A Polygenic Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachiya, Tsuyoshi; Kamatani, Yoichiro; Takahashi, Atsushi; Hata, Jun; Furukawa, Ryohei; Shiwa, Yuh; Yamaji, Taiki; Hara, Megumi; Tanno, Kozo; Ohmomo, Hideki; Ono, Kanako; Takashima, Naoyuki; Matsuda, Koichi; Wakai, Kenji; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Ago, Tetsuro; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Fukushima, Akimune; Hozawa, Atsushi; Minegishi, Naoko; Satoh, Mamoru; Endo, Ryujin; Sasaki, Makoto; Sakata, Kiyomi; Kobayashi, Seiichiro; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Hitomi, Jiro; Kita, Yoshikuni; Tanaka, Keitaro; Iso, Hiroyasu; Kitazono, Takanari; Kubo, Michiaki; Tanaka, Hideo; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Yamamoto, Masayuki; Sobue, Kenji; Shimizu, Atsushi

    2017-02-01

    The prediction of genetic predispositions to ischemic stroke (IS) may allow the identification of individuals at elevated risk and thereby prevent IS in clinical practice. Previously developed weighted multilocus genetic risk scores showed limited predictive ability for IS. Here, we investigated the predictive ability of a newer method, polygenic risk score (polyGRS), based on the idea that a few strong signals, as well as several weaker signals, can be collectively informative to determine IS risk. We genotyped 13 214 Japanese individuals with IS and 26 470 controls (derivation samples) and generated both multilocus genetic risk scores and polyGRS, using the same derivation data set. The predictive abilities of each scoring system were then assessed using 2 independent sets of Japanese samples (KyushuU and JPJM data sets). In both validation data sets, polyGRS was shown to be significantly associated with IS, but weighted multilocus genetic risk scores was not. Comparing the highest with the lowest polyGRS quintile, the odds ratios for IS were 1.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.31) and 1.99 (95% confidence interval, 1.19-3.33) in the KyushuU and JPJM samples, respectively. Using the KyushuU samples, the addition of polyGRS to a nongenetic risk model resulted in a significant improvement of the predictive ability (net reclassification improvement=0.151; Pgenetic risk scores as an IS prediction model. Thus, together with the nongenetic risk factors, polyGRS will provide valuable information for individual risk assessment and management of modifiable risk factors. © 2016 The Authors.

  10. Metabolic syndrome and dietary components are associated with coronary artery disease risk score in free-living adults: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takahashi Mauro

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Coronary artery disease (CAD is among the main causes of death in developed countries, and diet and lifestyle can influence CAD incidence. Objective To evaluate the association of coronary artery disease risk score with dietary, anthropometric and biochemical components in adults clinically selected for a lifestyle modification program. Methods 362 adults (96 men, 266 women, 53.9 ± 9.4 years fulfilled the inclusion criteria by presenting all the required data. The Framingham score was calculated and the IV Brazilian Guideline on Dyslipidemia and Prevention of Atherosclerosis was adopted for classification of the CAD risks. Anthropometric assessments included waist circumference (WC, body fat and calculated BMI (kg/m2 and muscle-mass index (MMI kg/m2. Dietary intake was estimated through 24 h dietary recall. Fasting blood was used for biochemical analysis. Metabolic Syndrome (MS was diagnosed using NCEP-ATPIII (2001 criteria. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds of CAD risks according to the altered components of MS, dietary, anthropometric, and biochemical components. Results For a sample with a BMI 28.5 ± 5.0 kg/m2 the association with lower risk ( Conclusion Recommended intake of saturated fat and dietary fiber, together with proper muscle mass, are inversely associated with CAD risk score. On the other hand, the presence of MS and high plasma uric acid are associated with CAD risk score.

  11. Evaluating Damage Potential in Security Risk Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eli Weintraub

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A Continuous Monitoring System (CMS model is presented, having new improved capabilities. The system is based on the actual real-time configuration of the system. Existing risk scoring models assume damage potential is estimated by systems' owner, thus rejecting the information relying in the technological configuration. The assumption underlying this research is based on users' ability to estimate business impacts relating to systems' external interfaces which they use regularly in their business activities, but are unable to assess business impacts relating to internal technological components. According to the proposed model systems' damage potential is calculated using technical information on systems' components using a directed graph. The graph is incorporated into the Common Vulnerability Scoring Systems' (CVSS algorithm to produce risk scoring measures. Framework presentation includes system design, damage potential scoring algorithm design and an illustration of scoring computations.

  12. Polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder predict creativity.

    OpenAIRE

    Power, Robert A.; Steinberg, Stacy; Bjornsdottir, Gyda; Rietveld, Cornelius A.; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Nivard, Michel M; Johannesson, Magnus; Galesloot, Tessel E.; Hottenga, Jouke J.; Willemsen, Gonneke; Cesarini, David; Benjamin, Daniel J.; Magnusson, Patrik K. E.; Ullén, Fredrik; Tiemeier, Henning

    2015-01-01

    To access publisher's full text version of this article click on the hyperlink at the bottom of the page We tested whether polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder would predict creativity. Higher scores were associated with artistic society membership or creative profession in both Icelandic (P = 5.2 × 10(-6) and 3.8 × 10(-6) for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder scores, respectively) and replication cohorts (P = 0.0021 and 0.00086). This could not be accounted for by...

  13. Polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder predict creativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Robert A; Steinberg, Stacy; Bjornsdottir, Gyda; Rietveld, Cornelius A; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Nivard, Michel M; Johannesson, Magnus; Galesloot, Tessel E; Hottenga, Jouke J; Willemsen, Gonneke; Cesarini, David; Benjamin, Daniel J; Magnusson, Patrik K E; Ullén, Fredrik; Tiemeier, Henning; Hofman, Albert; van Rooij, Frank J A; Walters, G Bragi; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Thorgeirsson, Thorgeir E; Ingason, Andres; Helgason, Agnar; Kong, Augustine; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Koellinger, Philipp; Boomsma, Dorret I; Gudbjartsson, Daniel; Stefansson, Hreinn; Stefansson, Kari

    2015-07-01

    We tested whether polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder would predict creativity. Higher scores were associated with artistic society membership or creative profession in both Icelandic (P = 5.2 × 10(-6) and 3.8 × 10(-6) for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder scores, respectively) and replication cohorts (P = 0.0021 and 0.00086). This could not be accounted for by increased relatedness between creative individuals and those with psychoses, indicating that creativity and psychosis share genetic roots.

  14. A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Khashei

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

  15. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using the SCORE risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Campos, Otávio Augusto Martins; Nazário, Nazaré Otília; de Magalhães Souza Fialho, Sônia Cristina; Fialho, Guilherme Loureiro; de Oliveira, Fernando José Savóia; de Castro, Gláucio Ricardo Werner; Pereira, Ivânio Alves

    2016-01-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune disease that causes systemic involvement and is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. To analyze the prediction index of 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event in female RA patients versus controls. Case-control study with analysis of 100 female patients matched for age and gender versus 100 patients in the control group. For the prediction of 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event, the SCORE and modified SCORE (mSCORE) risk indexes were used, as suggested by EULAR, in the subgroup with two or more of the following: duration of disease ≥10 years, RF and/or anti-CCP positivity, and extra-articular manifestations. The prevalence of analyzed comorbidities was similar in RA patients compared with the control group (p>0.05). The means of the SCORE risk index in RA patients and in the control group were 1.99 (SD: 1.89) and 1.56 (SD: 1.87) (p=0.06), respectively. The means of mSCORE index in RA patients and in the control group were 2.84 (SD=2.86) and 1.56 (SD=1.87) (p=0.001), respectively. By using the SCORE risk index, 11% of RA patients were classified as of high risk, and with the use of mSCORE risk index, 36% were at high risk (p<0.001). The SCORE risk index is similar in both groups, but with the application of the mSCORE index, we recognized that RA patients have a higher 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event, and this reinforces the importance of factors inherent to the disease not measured in the SCORE risk index, but considered in mSCORE risk index. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  16. CT measurement of coronary calcium mass: impact on global cardiac risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, Christoph R.; Majeed, Amal; Reiser, Maximilian F. [Ludwig-Maximilians-University Hospital Munich, Department of Clinical Radiology, Munich (Germany); Crispin, Alexander [University Hospital Munich, Department of Medical Data Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Munich (Germany); Knez, Andreas; Boekstegers, Peter; Steinbeck, Gerhard [University Hospital Munich, Department of Cardiology, Munich (Germany); Schoepf, U. Joseph [Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States)

    2005-01-01

    Coronary calcium mass percentiles can be derived from electron beam CT as well as from multidetector-row CT of all manufacturers. Coronary calcium mass may serve as a more individualized substitute for age for cardiac risk stratification. The aim was to investigate the potential impact of CT coronary calcium mass quantification on cardiac risk stratification using an adjusted Framingham score. Standardized coronary calcium mass was determined by multidetector-row CT in a total of 1,473 patients (1,038 male, 435 female). The impact on risk stratification of replacing the traditional Framingham age point score by a point score based on calcium mass relative to age was tested. Any coronary calcium found in males in the age group of 20-34 years and females in the age group of 20-59 years results in an increase of the Framingham score by 9 and 4-7 points, respectively. Only in males 65 years of age and older, none or minimal amounts of coronary calcium decrease the Framingham score by three points. The coronary calcium mass and age-related scoring system may have impact on the reassignment of patients with an intermediate Framingham risk to a lower or higher risk group. (orig.)

  17. A new scoring system to stratify risk in unstable angina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salzberg Simón

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We performed this study to develop a new scoring system to stratify different levels of risk in patients admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of unstable angina (UA, which is a complex syndrome that encompasses different outcomes. Many prognostic variables have been described but few efforts have been made to group them in order to enhance their individual predictive power. Methods In a first phase, 473 patients were prospectively analyzed to determine which factors were significantly associated with the in-hospital occurrence of refractory ischemia, acute myocardial infarction (AMI or death. A risk score ranging from 0 to 10 points was developed using a multivariate analysis. In a second phase, such score was validated in a new sample of 242 patients and it was finally applied to the entire population (n = 715. Results ST-segment deviation on the electrocardiogram, age ≥ 70 years, previous bypass surgery and troponin T ≥ 0.1 ng/mL were found as independent prognostic variables. A clear distinction was shown among categories of low, intermediate and high risk, defined according to the risk score. The incidence of the triple end-point was 6 %, 19.2 % and 44.7 % respectively, and the figures for AMI or death were 2 %, 11.4 % and 27.6 % respectively (p Conclusions This new scoring system is simple and easy to achieve. It allows a very good stratification of risk in patients having a clinical diagnosis of UA. They may be divided in three categories, which could be of help in the decision-making process.

  18. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® score in subclinical hyperthyroidism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polovina Snežana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® score is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and post-menopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Methods. The bone mineral density (by DXA, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH level, free thyroxine (fT4 level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and post-menopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 ± 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI 27.89 ± 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 ± 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 ± 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 ± 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 ± 4.58 years. The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX® score calculation was performed in both groups. Results. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX® score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 ± 1.58 vs 4.35 ± 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015. The FRAX® score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 ± 3.92 vs 0.50 ± 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022. There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (p > 0.05. The ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001 is presented by the area under the curve (AUC plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Conclusion. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX® scores and thus

  19. CARDIOVASCULAR OUTCOMES IN FRAMINGHAM PARTICIPANTS WITH DIABETES: THE IMPORTANCE OF BLOOD PRESSURE

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Guanmin; McAlister, Finlay A; Walker, Robin L; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R; Campbell, Norm RC

    2011-01-01

    We designed this study to explore to what extent the excess risk of cardiovascular events in diabetic individuals is attributable to hypertension. We retrospectively analyzed prospectively collected data from the Framingham Original and Offspring cohorts. Of the 1145 Framingham subjects newly diagnosed with diabetes who did not have a prior history of cardiovascular events, 663 (58%) had hypertension at the time diabetes was diagnosed. During 4154 person-years of follow-up, 125 died and 204 s...

  20. Risk assessment and risk scores in the management of aortic aneurysms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Meijenfeldt, Gerdine C I; Van Der Laan, Maarten J; Zeebregts, Clark J; Balm, Ron; Verhagen, Hence J M

    2016-04-01

    The decision whether to operate a patient or not can be challenging for a clinician for both ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) as well as elective AAAs. Prior to surgical intervention it would be preferable that the clinician exactly knows which clinical variables lower or increase the chances of morbidity and mortality postintervention. To help in the preoperative counselling and shared decision making several clinical variables can be identified as risk factors and with these, risk models can be developed. An ideal risk score for aneurysm repair includes routinely obtained physiological and anatomical variables, has excellent discrimination and calibration, and is validated in different geographical areas. For elective AAA repair, several risk scores are available, for ruptured AAA treatment, these scores are far less well developed. In this manuscript, we describe the designs and results of published risk scores for elective and open repair. Also, suggestions for uniformly reporting of risk factors and their statistical analyses are described. Furthermore, the preliminary results of a new risk model for ruptured aortic aneurysm will be discussed. This score identifies age, hemoglobin, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and preoperative systolic blood pressure as risk factors after multivariate regression analysis. This new risk score can help to identify patients that would not benefit from repair, but it can also potentially identify patients who would benefit and therefore lower turndown rates. The challenge for further research is to expand on validation of already existing promising risk scores in order to come to a risk model with optimal discrimination and calibration.

  1. A risk scoring system for prediction of haemorrhagic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zodpey, S P; Tiwari, R R

    2005-01-01

    The present pair-matched case control study was carried out at Government Medical College Hospital, Nagpur, India, a tertiary care hospital with the objective to devise and validate a risk scoring system for prediction of hemorrhagic stroke. The study consisted of 166 hospitalized CT scan proved cases of hemorrhagic stroke (ICD 9, 431-432), and a age and sex matched control per case. The controls were selected from patients who attended the study hospital for conditions other than stroke. On conditional multiple logistic regression five risk factors- hypertension (OR = 1.9. 95% Cl = 1.5-2.5). raised scrum total cholesterol (OR = 2.3, 95% Cl = 1.1-4.9). use of anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents (OR = 3.4, 95% Cl =1.1-10.4). past history of transient ischaemic attack (OR = 8.4, 95% Cl = 2.1- 33.6) and alcohol intake (OR = 2.1, 95% Cl = 1.3-3.6) were significant. These factors were ascribed statistical weights (based on regression coefficients) of 6, 8, 12, 21 and 8 respectively. The nonsignificant factors (diabetes mellitus, physical inactivity, obesity, smoking, type A personality, history of claudication, family history of stroke, history of cardiac diseases and oral contraceptive use in females) were not included in the development of scoring system. ROC curve suggested a total score of 21 to be the best cut-off for predicting haemorrhag stroke. At this cut-off the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity and Cohen's kappa were 0.74, 0.74, 0.74 and 0.48 respectively. The overall predictive accuracy of this additive risk scoring system (area under ROC curve by Wilcoxon statistic) was 0.79 (95% Cl = 0.73-0.84). Thus to conclude, if substantiated by further validation, this scorincy system can be used to predict haemorrhagic stroke, thereby helping to devise effective risk factor intervention strategy.

  2. Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carma Karam

    Full Text Available Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs changes over the years in an untreated population-based study.Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated.The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002 and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001. The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001 and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113. The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001.Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population.

  3. Breast cancer risk prediction using a clinical risk model and polygenic risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Vachon, Celine M; Cummings, Steven R; Kerlikowske, Karla; Ziv, Elad

    2016-10-01

    Breast cancer risk assessment can inform the use of screening and prevention modalities. We investigated the performance of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model in combination with a polygenic risk score (PRS) comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms identified from genome-wide association studies. We conducted a nested case-control study of 486 cases and 495 matched controls within a screening cohort. The PRS was calculated using a Bayesian approach. The contributions of the PRS and variables in the BCSC model to breast cancer risk were tested using conditional logistic regression. Discriminatory accuracy of the models was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Increasing quartiles of the PRS were positively associated with breast cancer risk, with OR 2.54 (95 % CI 1.69-3.82) for breast cancer in the highest versus lowest quartile. In a multivariable model, the PRS, family history, and breast density remained strong risk factors. The AUROC of the PRS was 0.60 (95 % CI 0.57-0.64), and an Asian-specific PRS had AUROC 0.64 (95 % CI 0.53-0.74). A combined model including the BCSC risk factors and PRS had better discrimination than the BCSC model (AUROC 0.65 versus 0.62, p = 0.01). The BCSC-PRS model classified 18 % of cases as high-risk (5-year risk ≥3 %), compared with 7 % using the BCSC model. The PRS improved discrimination of the BCSC risk model and classified more cases as high-risk. Further consideration of the PRS's role in decision-making around screening and prevention strategies is merited.

  4. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

  5. Comparison of Calipers for Matching on the Disease Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, John G; Gagne, Joshua J

    2016-05-15

    Previous studies have compared calipers for propensity score (PS) matching, but none have considered calipers for matching on the disease risk score (DRS). We used Medicare claims data to perform 3 cohort studies of medication initiators: a study of raloxifene versus alendronate in 1-year nonvertebral fracture risk, a study of cyclooxygenase 2 inhibitors versus nonselective nonsteroidal antiinflammatory medications in 6-month gastrointestinal bleeding, and a study of simvastatin + ezetimibe versus simvastatin alone in 6-month cardiovascular outcomes. The study periods for each cohort were 1998 through 2005, 1999 through 2002, and 2004 through 2005, respectively. In each cohort, we calculated 1) a DRS, 2) a prognostic PS which included the DRS as the independent variable in a PS model, and 3) the PS for each patient. We then nearest-neighbor matched on each score in a variable ratio and a fixed ratio within 8 calipers based on the standard deviation of the logit and the natural score scale. When variable ratio matching on the DRS, a caliper of 0.05 on the natural scale performed poorly when the outcome was rare. The prognostic PS did not appear to offer any consistent practical benefits over matching on the DRS directly. In general, logit-based calipers or calipers smaller than 0.05 on the natural scale performed well when DRS matching in all examples. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Application of cardiovascular disease risk prediction models and the relevance of novel biomarkers to risk stratification in Asian Indians

    OpenAIRE

    S Kanjilal; Rao, VS; Mukherjee, M.; Natesha, BK; Renuka, KS; Sibi, K; Iyengar, SS; Kakkar, Vijay V

    2008-01-01

    The increasing pressure on health resources has led to the emergence of risk assessment as an essential tool in the management of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Concern exists regarding the validity of their generalization to all populations. Existing risk scoring models do not incorporate emerging ‘novel’ risk factors. In this context, the aim of the study was to examine the relevance of British, European, and Framingham predictive CVD risk scores to the asymptomatic high risk Indian populati...

  7. Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Yang, Jian; Finucane, Hilary K; Gusev, Alexander; Lindström, Sara; Ripke, Stephan; Genovese, Giulio; Loh, Po-Ru; Bhatia, Gaurav; Do, Ron; Hayeck, Tristan; Won, Hong-Hee; Kathiresan, Sekar; Pato, Michele; Pato, Carlos; Tamimi, Rulla; Stahl, Eli; Zaitlen, Noah; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Belbin, Gillian; Kenny, Eimear E; Schierup, Mikkel H; De Jager, Philip; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A; McCarroll, Steve; Daly, Mark; Purcell, Shaun; Chasman, Daniel; Neale, Benjamin; Goddard, Michael; Visscher, Peter M; Kraft, Peter; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L

    2015-10-01

    Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R(2) increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase. Copyright © 2015 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Integrating genetics and social science: genetic risk scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belsky, Daniel W; Israel, Salomon

    2014-01-01

    The sequencing of the human genome and the advent of low-cost genome-wide assays that generate millions of observations of individual genomes in a matter of hours constitute a disruptive innovation for social science. Many public use social science datasets have or will soon add genome-wide genetic data. With these new data come technical challenges, but also new possibilities. Among these, the lowest-hanging fruit and the most potentially disruptive to existing research programs is the ability to measure previously invisible contours of health and disease risk within populations. In this article, we outline why now is the time for social scientists to bring genetics into their research programs. We discuss how to select genetic variants to study. We explain how the polygenic architecture of complex traits and the low penetrance of individual genetic loci pose challenges to research integrating genetics and social science. We introduce genetic risk scores as a method of addressing these challenges and provide guidance on how genetic risk scores can be constructed. We conclude by outlining research questions that are ripe for social science inquiry.

  9. Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J.; Yang, Jian; Finucane, Hilary K.; Gusev, Alexander; Lindström, Sara; Ripke, Stephan; Genovese, Giulio; Loh, Po-Ru; Bhatia, Gaurav; Do, Ron; Hayeck, Tristan; Won, Hong-Hee; Ripke, Stephan; Neale, Benjamin M.; Corvin, Aiden; Walters, James T.R.; Farh, Kai-How; Holmans, Peter A.; Lee, Phil; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan; Collier, David A.; Huang, Hailiang; Pers, Tune H.; Agartz, Ingrid; Agerbo, Esben; Albus, Margot; Alexander, Madeline; Amin, Farooq; Bacanu, Silviu A.; Begemann, Martin; Belliveau, Richard A.; Bene, Judit; Bergen, Sarah E.; Bevilacqua, Elizabeth; Bigdeli, Tim B.; Black, Donald W.; Bruggeman, Richard; Buccola, Nancy G.; Buckner, Randy L.; Byerley, William; Cahn, Wiepke; Cai, Guiqing; Campion, Dominique; Cantor, Rita M.; Carr, Vaughan J.; Carrera, Noa; Catts, Stanley V.; Chambert, Kimberly D.; Chan, Raymond C.K.; Chen, Ronald Y.L.; Chen, Eric Y.H.; Cheng, Wei; Cheung, Eric F.C.; Chong, Siow Ann; Cloninger, C. Robert; Cohen, David; Cohen, Nadine; Cormican, Paul; Craddock, Nick; Crowley, James J.; Curtis, David; Davidson, Michael; Davis, Kenneth L.; Degenhardt, Franziska; Del Favero, Jurgen; DeLisi, Lynn E.; Demontis, Ditte; Dikeos, Dimitris; Dinan, Timothy; Djurovic, Srdjan; Donohoe, Gary; Drapeau, Elodie; Duan, Jubao; Dudbridge, Frank; Durmishi, Naser; Eichhammer, Peter; Eriksson, Johan; Escott-Price, Valentina; Essioux, Laurent; Fanous, Ayman H.; Farrell, Martilias S.; Frank, Josef; Franke, Lude; Freedman, Robert; Freimer, Nelson B.; Friedl, Marion; Friedman, Joseph I.; Fromer, Menachem; Genovese, Giulio; Georgieva, Lyudmila; Gershon, Elliot S.; Giegling, Ina; Giusti-Rodrguez, Paola; Godard, Stephanie; Goldstein, Jacqueline I.; Golimbet, Vera; Gopal, Srihari; Gratten, Jacob; Grove, Jakob; de Haan, Lieuwe; Hammer, Christian; Hamshere, Marian L.; Hansen, Mark; Hansen, Thomas; Haroutunian, Vahram; Hartmann, Annette M.; Henskens, Frans A.; Herms, Stefan; Hirschhorn, Joel N.; Hoffmann, Per; Hofman, Andrea; Hollegaard, Mads V.; Hougaard, David M.; Ikeda, Masashi; Joa, Inge; Julia, Antonio; Kahn, Rene S.; Kalaydjieva, Luba; Karachanak-Yankova, Sena; Karjalainen, Juha; Kavanagh, David; Keller, Matthew C.; Kelly, Brian J.; Kennedy, James L.; Khrunin, Andrey; Kim, Yunjung; Klovins, Janis; Knowles, James A.; Konte, Bettina; Kucinskas, Vaidutis; Kucinskiene, Zita Ausrele; Kuzelova-Ptackova, Hana; Kahler, Anna K.; Laurent, Claudine; Keong, Jimmy Lee Chee; Lee, S. Hong; Legge, Sophie E.; Lerer, Bernard; Li, Miaoxin; Li, Tao; Liang, Kung-Yee; Lieberman, Jeffrey; Limborska, Svetlana; Loughland, Carmel M.; Lubinski, Jan; Lnnqvist, Jouko; Macek, Milan; Magnusson, Patrik K.E.; Maher, Brion S.; Maier, Wolfgang; Mallet, Jacques; Marsal, Sara; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mattingsdal, Morten; McCarley, Robert W.; McDonald, Colm; McIntosh, Andrew M.; Meier, Sandra; Meijer, Carin J.; Melegh, Bela; Melle, Ingrid; Mesholam-Gately, Raquelle I.; Metspalu, Andres; Michie, Patricia T.; Milani, Lili; Milanova, Vihra; Mokrab, Younes; Morris, Derek W.; Mors, Ole; Mortensen, Preben B.; Murphy, Kieran C.; Murray, Robin M.; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Mller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nelis, Mari; Nenadic, Igor; Nertney, Deborah A.; Nestadt, Gerald; Nicodemus, Kristin K.; Nikitina-Zake, Liene; Nisenbaum, Laura; Nordin, Annelie; O’Callaghan, Eadbhard; O’Dushlaine, Colm; O’Neill, F. Anthony; Oh, Sang-Yun; Olincy, Ann; Olsen, Line; Van Os, Jim; Pantelis, Christos; Papadimitriou, George N.; Papiol, Sergi; Parkhomenko, Elena; Pato, Michele T.; Paunio, Tiina; Pejovic-Milovancevic, Milica; Perkins, Diana O.; Pietilinen, Olli; Pimm, Jonathan; Pocklington, Andrew J.; Powell, John; Price, Alkes; Pulver, Ann E.; Purcell, Shaun M.; Quested, Digby; Rasmussen, Henrik B.; Reichenberg, Abraham; Reimers, Mark A.; Richards, Alexander L.; Roffman, Joshua L.; Roussos, Panos; Ruderfer, Douglas M.; Salomaa, Veikko; Sanders, Alan R.; Schall, Ulrich; Schubert, Christian R.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Schwab, Sibylle G.; Scolnick, Edward M.; Scott, Rodney J.; Seidman, Larry J.; Shi, Jianxin; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Silagadze, Teimuraz; Silverman, Jeremy M.; Sim, Kang; Slominsky, Petr; Smoller, Jordan W.; So, Hon-Cheong; Spencer, Chris C.A.; Stahl, Eli A.; Stefansson, Hreinn; Steinberg, Stacy; Stogmann, Elisabeth; Straub, Richard E.; Strengman, Eric; Strohmaier, Jana; Stroup, T. Scott; Subramaniam, Mythily; Suvisaari, Jaana; Svrakic, Dragan M.; Szatkiewicz, Jin P.; Sderman, Erik; Thirumalai, Srinivas; Toncheva, Draga; Tooney, Paul A.; Tosato, Sarah; Veijola, Juha; Waddington, John; Walsh, Dermot; Wang, Dai; Wang, Qiang; Webb, Bradley T.; Weiser, Mark; Wildenauer, Dieter B.; Williams, Nigel M.; Williams, Stephanie; Witt, Stephanie H.; Wolen, Aaron R.; Wong, Emily H.M.; Wormley, Brandon K.; Wu, Jing Qin; Xi, Hualin Simon; Zai, Clement C.; Zheng, Xuebin; Zimprich, Fritz; Wray, Naomi R.; Stefansson, Kari; Visscher, Peter M.; Adolfsson, Rolf; Andreassen, Ole A.; Blackwood, Douglas H.R.; Bramon, Elvira; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Børglum, Anders D.; Cichon, Sven; Darvasi, Ariel; Domenici, Enrico; Ehrenreich, Hannelore; Esko, Tonu; Gejman, Pablo V.; Gill, Michael; Gurling, Hugh; Hultman, Christina M.; Iwata, Nakao; Jablensky, Assen V.; Jonsson, Erik G.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Kirov, George; Knight, Jo; Lencz, Todd; Levinson, Douglas F.; Li, Qingqin S.; Liu, Jianjun; Malhotra, Anil K.; McCarroll, Steven A.; McQuillin, Andrew; Moran, Jennifer L.; Mortensen, Preben B.; Mowry, Bryan J.; Nthen, Markus M.; Ophoff, Roel A.; Owen, Michael J.; Palotie, Aarno; Pato, Carlos N.; Petryshen, Tracey L.; Posthuma, Danielle; Rietschel, Marcella; Riley, Brien P.; Rujescu, Dan; Sham, Pak C.; Sklar, Pamela; St. Clair, David; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Wendland, Jens R.; Werge, Thomas; Daly, Mark J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; O’Donovan, Michael C.; Kraft, Peter; Hunter, David J.; Adank, Muriel; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Baglietto, Laura; Berndt, Sonja; Blomquist, Carl; Canzian, Federico; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chanock, Stephen J.; Crisponi, Laura; Czene, Kamila; Dahmen, Norbert; Silva, Isabel dos Santos; Easton, Douglas; Eliassen, A. Heather; Figueroa, Jonine; Fletcher, Olivia; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Gaudet, Mia M.; Gibson, Lorna; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hall, Per; Hazra, Aditi; Hein, Rebecca; Henderson, Brian E.; Hofman, Albert; Hopper, John L.; Irwanto, Astrid; Johansson, Mattias; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kibriya, Muhammad G.; Lichtner, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Liu, Jianjun; Lund, Eiliv; Makalic, Enes; Meindl, Alfons; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Muranen, Taru A.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Peeters, Petra H.; Peto, Julian; Prentice, Ross L.; Rahman, Nazneen; Sánchez, María José; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Southey, Melissa C.; Tamimi, Rulla; Travis, Ruth; Turnbull, Clare; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang, Zhaoming; Whittemore, Alice S.; Yang, Rose; Zheng, Wei; Kathiresan, Sekar; Pato, Michele; Pato, Carlos; Tamimi, Rulla; Stahl, Eli; Zaitlen, Noah; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Belbin, Gillian; Kenny, Eimear E.; Schierup, Mikkel H.; De Jager, Philip; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A.; McCarroll, Steve; Daly, Mark; Purcell, Shaun; Chasman, Daniel; Neale, Benjamin; Goddard, Michael; Visscher, Peter M.; Kraft, Peter; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L.

    2015-01-01

    Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R2 increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase. PMID:26430803

  10. Modelo predictivo de "score" de calcio alto en pacientes con factores de riesgo cardiovascular Predictive model of high calcium score in patients with cardiovascular risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Franco

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Introducción: a través de múltiples estudios, se ha encontrado que el "score" de calcio coronario es un buen predictor de enfermedad coronaria, en individuos asintomáticos con uno o más factores de riesgo cardiovascular. Por ello sería ideal realizar esta prueba para estratificar su riesgo, pero esto no es posible en la mayoría de los casos por motivos de índole económica. El modelo que se presenta permite predecir la probabilidad de que un paciente tenga un score de calcio coronario alto, a partir de sus factores de riesgo cardiovascular. Lo novedoso del modelo es que también involucra factores "protectores" que disminuyen dicha probabilidad. Métodos: estudio de casos y controles, en pacientes asintomáticos con factores de riesgo cardiovascular, a quienes se les realizó un PCC. Los casos son pacientes con score de calcio coronario por encima del percentil 75 para su edad y género; la relación control:caso es 2:1. Resultados: las edades oscilaron entre 35 y 75 años; el 14,4% eran de género femenino, el 44,4% tenían historia familiar de CHD, el 34,4% eran hipertensos, el 38,9% colesterol total elevado, el 24,4% colesterol HDL por debajo de 40 mg/dL, el 33,3% colesterol LDL por encima de 160 mg/dL, el 25,6% fumaban, el 23,3% eran sedentarios, el 13,3% consumían licor periódicamente, el 15,6% eran obesos (IMC>30, el 18,9% realizaban ejercicio de manera periódica y 34,4% tomaba estatinas. Los factores de riesgo cardiovascular que se correlacionaron con el score de calcio coronario alto, se consignan en la tabla 1. En el modelo de regresión logística se incluyen los factores que tienen un valor de p tabla 2. La expresión para el modelo sería: Los valores de ci son 1, si el factor está presente y 0 si no lo está. Conclusiones: el anterior modelo no pretende reemplazar la estratificación con el modelo de Framingham, al contrario, es un complemento que permite orientar al médico tratante sobre si es recomendable realizar la

  11. Preterm Birth: A Prominent Risk Factor for Low Apgar Scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Svenvik

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine predictive risk factors for Apgar scores < 7 at 5 minutes at two hospitals providing tertiary care and secondary care, respectively. Methods. A retrospective registry cohort study of 21126 births (2006–2010 using data from digital medical records. Risk factors were analyzed by logistic regression analyses. Results.  AS5min⁡<7 was multivariately associated with the following: preterm birth; gestational week 32 + 0–36 + 6, OR=3.9 (95% CI 2.9–5.3; week 28 + 0–31 + 6, OR=8 (5–12; week < 28 + 0, OR=15 (8–29; postterm birth, OR=2.0 (1.7–2.3; multiple pregnancy, OR=3.53 (1.79–6.96; previous cesarean section, OR=3.67 (2.31–5.81; BMI 25–29, OR=1.30 (1.09–1.55; BMI≥30  OR=1.70 (1.20–2.41; nonnormal CTG at admission, OR=1.98 (1.48–2.66. ≥1-para was associated with a decreased risk for AS5min⁡<7, OR=0.34 (0.25–0.47. In the univariate logistic regression analysis AS5min⁡<7 was associated with tertiary level care, OR=1.48 (1.17–1.87; however, in the multivariate analysis there was no significant difference. Conclusion. A number of partially preventable risk factors were identified, preterm birth being the most evident. Further, no significant difference between the two hospital levels regarding the risk for low Apgar scores was detected.

  12. Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdo Karim Tourkmani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS: The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases, incomplete medical notes (5 cases and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases. We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS: Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P0.05 between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05, although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION: After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y.

  13. Fruit and vegetable consumption and cardiovascular risk factors in older Chinese: the Guangzhou biobank cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yangbo Sun

    Full Text Available To examine the adjusted associations of fruit consumption and vegetable consumption with the Framingham score and its components in the non-Western setting of Southern China, considering health status.Linear regression was used to assess the cross-sectional associations of fruit and vegetable consumption with the Framingham score and its components, among 19,518 older Chinese (≥50 years from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study in Southern China (2003-2006, and whether these differed by health status.The association of fruit consumption with the Framingham score varied by health status (P-value<0.001, but not vegetable consumption (P-value 0.51. Fruit consumption was associated with a lower Framingham score (-0.04 per portions/day, 95% confidence interval (CI -0.08 to -0.004 among participants in poor health, adjusted for age, sex, recruitment phase, socio-economic position and lifestyle. However, similarly adjusted, fruit consumption was associated with a higher Framingham score (0.05, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.09 among participants in good health, perhaps due to a positive association of fruit consumption with fasting glucose. Similarly adjusted, vegetable consumption was associated with a higher Framingham score (0.03, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.05 among all participants, with no difference by health status.This large study from a non-western setting found that fruit and vegetable consumption was barely associated with the Framingham score, or major CVD risk factors.

  14. Multi-locus genetic risk score predicts risk for Crohn's disease in Slovenian population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zupancic, Katarina; Skok, Kristijan; Repnik, Katja; Weersma, Rinse K.; Potocnik, Uros; Skok, Pavel

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To develop a risk model for Crohn's disease (CD) based on homogeneous population. METHODS: In our study were included 160 CD patients and 209 healthy individuals from Slovenia. The association study was performed for 112 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We generated genetic risk scores

  15. Multi-locus genetic risk score predicts risk for Crohn's disease in Slovenian population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zupančič, Katarina; Skok, Kristijan; Repnik, Katja; Weersma, Rinse K; Potočnik, Uroš; Skok, Pavel

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To develop a risk model for Crohn's disease (CD) based on homogeneous population. METHODS: In our study were included 160 CD patients and 209 healthy individuals from Slovenia. The association study was performed for 112 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We generated genetic risk scores (

  16. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

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    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  17. Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ngu, Jing H.; Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Chin, YK

    2017-01-01

    Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study.......Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study....

  18. SCORE underestimates cardiovascular risk (CVR of HIV+ patients

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    R Ramírez

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The new European Guidelines of Dislipidemia Management of the European Societies of Cardiology and Arteriosclerosis consider HIV+ as patients at high risk of developing cardiovascular events and deaths. The objective of the study was to evaluate cardiovascular events and deaths in a series of HIV+ patients. Observational, cross-sectional study, including a cohort of HIV+ and HIV− patients from 2008. CVR was calculated using the SCORE-CVR chart. Variation on lipid profile and incidence of cardiovascular events, cardiovascular death or death related to any cause were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 20.0 for MAC. 154 HIV+ and 155 HIV− patients were included. Mean age: 44.8±9.5 vs 55.2±14.3 y and 69.5% vs 49% males respectively (p<0.01. Mean time since HIV+ diagnosis was 11±6.2 y. Mean BMI and systolic blood pressure were lower in HIV+ (25.1±6.7 kg/m2 vs 28.7±5.1 kg/m2, (p<0.01 and 119.6±19.4 vs 124.7±14.7 mmHg, (p=0.044; respectively. A lower proportion of hypertense, diabetic and obese patients was observed in HIV+ (25.5% vs 6.5%; 20.6% vs 3.9% and 36.8% vs 12.3% but a larger proportion of smokers (68.8% vs 29.7% was observed (p<0.01 in all cases. Mean cholesterol and LDLc were lower in HIV+ (191.2±41.4 vs 218.5±44.6 mg/dl and 109.5±33.9 vs 134.6±37.7 mg/dl; p<0.01; respectively but with a lower mean HDLc and higher TG (50.3±19 mg/dl vs 55.2±14.9 mg/dl; p=0.013 and 156.7±85.7 vs 135.8±66.2 mg/dl; p=0.017; respectively. There was no significant difference in mean CVR-SCORE (3.5±3.6% vs 4.4±3.8%; p=0.091. With this SCORE, 5.2±5.3 and 6.7±5.8 cardiovascular events or deaths should be expected in HIV+ and HIV− respectively at 10 y. Four years later cholesterol, LDLc, HDLc, TG in HIV+ and HIV− patients did not vary compared with those obtained 4 y before. 5 events and 1 death were seen at 4 y follow-up in HIV+, and in HIV− patients. The incidence of events in HIV+ patients is similar to the expected according

  19. Comparison of three prenatal risk scores in a series of low-risk pregnancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, R B; Acheson, L S; Zyzanski, S J

    1988-01-01

    Three prepartum obstetrical risk-scoring methods (Goodwin, Halliday, Hobel) were retrospectively applied to a consecutive series of 795 singleton pregnancies. The study population was low risk overall, with a perinatal mortality rate of 11 per 1000 and a primary cesarean section rate of 9.7%. The predictive ability of the scores was tested for individual outcomes as well as for a "combined measure" designed to group outcomes of clinical interest. Outcome variables examined included labor arrests, need for augmentation of labor, fetal heartrate abnormalities during labor, selection of or transfer to a more intensive level of care, indicated forceps delivery, cesarean section, resuscitation, Apgar scores, permanent injury, and perinatal deaths. Along with expected differences in sensitivity and specificity, there were differences among the three scores in performance as measured by positive and negative predictive value. Goodwin's system performed somewhat better overall. All three systems performed better in multiparous than in primiparous patients, but primiparas experienced more adverse outcomes.

  20. A MultiFactorial Risk Score to weigh toxicities and co-morbidities relative to costs of antiretrovirals in a cohort of HIV-infected patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Tontodonati

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the study: Considering costs of antiretrovirals (ARVs for HIV patients is increasingly needed. A simple and comprehensive tool weighing comorbidities and ARV-related toxicities could be useful to judge the appropriateness of use of more expensive drugs. We conceived a MultiFactorial Risk Score (MFRS to evaluate the appropriateness of ARVs prescription relative to their costs. Methods: HIV patients were consecutively enrolled in 2010-2011. We considered socio-demographic characteristics, HIV history, cardiovascular risk factors, low energy fractures, bone density. Psychological factors were assessed by BDI, DS14 and TAS-20. The MFRS was calculated as the sum of the following: age (<30y 1 point; 1 point increase every 5y, 10 for≥70; AIDS diagnosis (5; CD4 nadir (5 if <100; 1 point less every 100 CD4 increase; ART line (0 first, up to 5 for≥6 lines; lipodistrophy (5; HCV coinfection (7; education (1 degree, 2 secondary, 3 primary; alcohol (3 and drug abuse (5; working activity (3 if unemployed; hypertension (3; cholesterol≥200 mg/dl (3; diabetes (3; Framingham score (7 if>7%; creatinine (0 if <1 mg/dl, 1 if<1.2; 2 if<1.5>1.2, 5 if<2> 1.5, 7 if≥2; bone fractures (7; bone status at DEXA (0 normal, 3 osteopenic, 5 osteoporotic; cancer (5; depression (3 if BDI>17; other psychiatric illness (5. Annual costs of individual ART regimens were calculated. MFRS was correlated in univariate and multivariate models with all variables. All statistical analyses were carried out using Stata 10.1. Summary of results: We enrolled 241 HIV patients, 74.3% males, aged 44.5±9.9y; 19 patients (7.8% were untreated, 74.8% of treated had undetectable HIV RNA. Mean Nadir CD4 counts were 218±168, 38.5% of patients had an AIDS diagnosis. Mean individual ARV annual cost was 10,976±5,360. Mean MFRS was 28.5±13.9 (4–64. MFRS was significantly higher (p<0.001 in patients with older age, longer duration of HIV infection, lower CD4 nadirs, AIDS diagnosis

  1. Prevalence and distribution of abdominal aortic calcium by gender and age group in a community-based cohort (from the Framingham Heart Study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Michael L; Massaro, Joseph M; Levitzky, Yamini S; Fox, Caroline S; Manders, Emily S; Hoffmann, Udo; O'Donnell, Christopher J

    2012-09-15

    Abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) is associated with incident cardiovascular disease. However, the age- and gender-related distribution of AAC in a community-dwelling population free of standard cardiovascular disease risk factors has not been described. A total of 3,285 participants (aged 50.2 ± 9.9 years) in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring and Third Generation cohorts underwent abdominal multidetector computed tomography from 1998 to 2005. The presence and amount of AAC was quantified (Agatston score) by an experienced reader using standardized criteria. A healthy referent subsample (n = 1,656, 803 men) free of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, obesity, and smoking was identified, and participants were stratified by gender and age (65 years old, nearly 90% of the referent participants had >0 AAC. Across the entire study sample, AAC prevalence and burden similarly increased with greater age. Defining the 90th percentile of the referent group AAC as "high," the prevalence of high AAC was 19% for each gender in the overall study sample. The AAC also increased across categories of 10-year coronary heart disease risk, as calculated using the Framingham Risk Score, in the entire study sample. We found AAC to be widely prevalent, with the burden of AAC associated with 10-year coronary risk, in a white, free-living adult cohort.

  2. Prevalence and Distribution of Abdominal Aortic Calcium by Sex and Age-Group in a Community-based Cohort (From The Framingham Heart Study)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Michael L.; Massaro, Joseph M.; Levitzky, Yamini S.; Fox, Caroline S.; Manders, Emily S.; Hoffmann, Udo; O'Donnell, Christopher J.

    2012-01-01

    Abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) is associated with incident cardiovascular disease but the age and sex-related distribution of AAC in a community-dwelling population free of standard cardiovascular disease risk factors has not been described. A total of 3285 participants (aged 50.2±9.9 years) in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring and Third Generation cohorts underwent abdominal multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) scanning during 1998-2005. The presence and amount of AAC was quantified (Agatston score) by an experienced reader using standardized criteria. A healthy referent subsample (N=1656, 803 men) free of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, obesity and smoking was identified, and participants were stratified by sex and age group (0 AAC. Across the entire study sample, AAC prevalence and burden similarly increased with greater age. Defining the 90th percentile of referent group AAC as “high,” the prevalence of high AAC was 19% for each sex in the overall study sample. AAC also increased across categories of 10-year coronary heart disease risk, as calculated using the Framingham Risk Score, in the entire study sample. We found AAC to be widely prevalent, with the burden of AAC associated with 10-year coronary risk, in a white, free-living adult cohort. PMID:22727181

  3. Cardiovascular disease risk prediction by the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score among HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemphill, Linda C.; Palai, Tommy; Nkele, Isaac; Bennett, Kara; Lockman, Shahin; Triant, Virginia A.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives HIV-infected patients are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, general population CVD risk prediction equations that identify HIV-infected patients at elevated risk have not been widely assessed in sub-Saharan African (SSA). Methods HIV-infected adults from 30–50 years of age with documented viral suppression were enrolled into a cross-sectional study in Gaborone, Botswana. Participants were screened for CVD risk factors. Bilateral carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) was measured and 10-year predicted risk of cardiovascular disease was calculated using the Pooled Cohorts Equation for atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) and the 2008 Framingham Risk Score (FRS) (National Cholesterol Education Program III–NCEP III). ASCVD ≥7.5%, FRS ≥10%, and cIMT≥75th percentile were considered elevated risk for CVD. Agreement in classification of participants as high-risk for CVD by cIMT and FRS or ASCVD risk score was assessed using McNemar`s Test. The optimal cIMT cut off-point that matched ASCVD predicted risk of ≥7.5% was assessed using Youden’s J index. Results Among 208 HIV-infected patients (female: 55%, mean age 38 years), 78 (38%) met criteria for ASCVD calculation versus 130 (62%) who did not meet the criteria. ASCVD classified more participants as having elevated CVD risk than FRS (14.1% versus 2.6%, McNemar’s exact test p = 0.01), while also classifying similar proportion of participants as having elevated CVD like cIMT (14.1% versus 19.2%, McNemar’s exact test p = 0.34). Youden’s J calculated the optimal cut point at the 81st percentile for cIMT to correspond to an ASCVD score ≥7.5% (sensitivity = 72.7% and specificity = 88.1% with area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic [AUC] of 0.82, 95% Mann-Whitney CI: 0.66–0.99). Conclusion While the ASCVD risk score classified more patients at elevated CVD risk than FRS, ASCVD score classified similar proportion of patients as high risk when compared with

  4. Risk stratification in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Risk scores, biomarkers and clinical judgment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Corcoran

    2015-09-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom, in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment.

  5. Riesgo coronario según ecuación de Framingham en adultos con síndrome metabólico de la ciudad de Soledad, Atlántico. 2010 Coronary risk according to Framinghan equation in adults with metabolic syndrome in the city of Soledad, Atlantico, 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Navarro

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available >Objetivo: determinar el riesgo coronario en adultos con síndrome metabólico de la ciudad de Soledad, Atlántico, en 2010. Métodos: estudio descriptivo transversal, en el que se estudiaron 99 adultos del municipio de Soledad, a quienes se aplicó una encuesta de factores de riesgo cardiovascular, y adicionalmente se tomaron mediciones de peso, talla, perímetro de cintura y presión arterial, así como pruebas bioquímicas de glicemia, colesterol total, colesterol HDL y triglicéridos, para determinar la prevalencia de síndrome metabólico. Adicionalmente, se aplicó el puntaje de Framingham para evaluar riesgo coronario. Resultados y conclusiones: 49,5% de los sujetos tenían síndrome metabólico según la International Diabetes Foundation (IDF, 41,4% de acuerdo con la American Heart Asociation (AHA y 20,2% con base en el Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III. La prevalencia de síndrome metabólico fue mayor en mujeres (p>0,05; por edad se encontraron diferencias estadísticamente significativas (pObjective: to determine coronary risk in adults with coronary syndrome in the city of Soledad, Atlantico. 2010. Methods: cross sectional study. A survey of cardiovascular risks was applied to 99 adults in the city of Soledad. Additionally, measures of weight, height, waist circumference and blood pressure were taken, as well as biochemical tests for blood glucose, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and triglycerides, in order to determine the metabolic syndrome prevalence. In addition, we applied the Framinghan score to evaluate coronary risk. Results and Conclusions: 49.5% subjects had metabolic syndrome according to the International Diabetes Foundation, 41.4% according to the American Heart Association, and 20.2% according to the American Treatment Pannel III. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was higher in women (p >0,05; age differences were statistically significant (p <0,05. The average percentage of Framinghan cardiovascular risk was 3

  6. Protective effect of total carotenoid and lycopene intake on the risk of hip fracture: A 17-year follow-up from the Framingham Osteoporosis Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    In vitro and in vivo studies suggest that carotenoids may inhibit bone resorption; yet no previous study has examined individual carotenoid intake (other than beta-carotene) and the risk of fracture. We evaluated associations of total and individual carotenoid intake (alpha-carotene, beta-carotene,...

  7. Individualized Risk of Surgical Complications: An Application of the Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment Score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mlodinow, Alexei S.; Khavanin, Nima; Hume, Keith M.; Simmons, Christopher J.; Weiss, Michael J.; Murphy, Robert X.; Gutowski, Karol A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Risk discussion is a central tenet of the dialogue between surgeon and patient. Risk calculators have recently offered a new way to integrate evidence-based practice into the discussion of individualized patient risk and expectation management. Focusing on the comprehensive Tracking Operations and Outcomes for Plastic Surgeons (TOPS) database, we endeavored to add plastic surgical outcomes to the previously developed Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment (BRA) score. Methods: The TOPS database from 2008 to 2011 was queried for patients undergoing breast reconstruction. Regression models were constructed for the following complications: seroma, dehiscence, surgical site infection (SSI), explantation, flap failure, reoperation, and overall complications. Results: Of 11,992 cases, 4439 met inclusion criteria. Overall complication rate was 15.9%, with rates of 3.4% for seroma, 4.0% for SSI, 6.1% for dehiscence, 3.7% for explantation, 7.0% for flap loss, and 6.4% for reoperation. Individualized risk models were developed with acceptable goodness of fit, accuracy, and internal validity. Distribution of overall complication risk was broad and asymmetric, meaning that the average risk was often a poor estimate of the risk for any given patient. These models were added to the previously developed open-access version of the risk calculator, available at http://www.BRAscore.org. Conclusions: Population-based measures of risk may not accurately reflect risk for many individual patients. In this era of increasing emphasis on evidence-based medicine, we have developed a breast reconstruction risk assessment calculator from the robust TOPS database. The BRA Score tool can aid in individualizing—and quantifying—risk to better inform surgical decision making and better manage patient expectations. PMID:26090295

  8. Validity Assessment of Low-risk SCORE Function and SCORE Function Calibrated to the Spanish Population in the FRESCO Cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafael; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Elosua, Roberto; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibáñez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo-Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Lapetra, José; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González-Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guillem; Gavrila, Diana; Ardanaz, Eva; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manel; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; R Degano, Irene; Francès, Albert; Castell, Conxa; Grau, María; Marrugat, Jaume

    2017-05-26

    To assess the validity of the original low-risk SCORE function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and SCORE calibrated to the Spanish population. Pooled analysis with individual data from 12 Spanish population-based cohort studies. We included 30 919 individuals aged 40 to 64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline, who were followed up for 10 years for the causes of death included in the SCORE project. The validity of the risk functions was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve (discrimination) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (calibration), respectively. Follow-up comprised 286 105 persons/y. Ten-year cardiovascular mortality was 0.6%. The ratio between estimated/observed cases ranged from 9.1, 6.5, and 9.1 in men and 3.3, 1.3, and 1.9 in women with original low-risk SCORE risk function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and calibrated SCORE, respectively; differences were statistically significant with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test between predicted and observed mortality with SCORE (P < .001 in both sexes and with all functions). The area under the ROC curve with the original SCORE was 0.68 in men and 0.69 in women. All versions of the SCORE functions available in Spain significantly overestimate the cardiovascular mortality observed in the Spanish population. Despite the acceptable discrimination capacity, prediction of the number of fatal cardiovascular events (calibration) was significantly inaccurate. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. The Framingham Heart Study, on its way to becoming the gold standard for Cardiovascular Genetic Epidemiology?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaquish Cashell E

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Framingham Heart Study, founded in 1948 to examine the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease in a small town outside of Boston, has become the worldwide standard for cardiovascular epidemiology. It is among the longest running, most comprehensively characterized multi-generational studies in the world. Such seminal findings as the effects of smoking and high cholesterol on heart disease came from the Framingham Heart Study. At the time of publication these were novel cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors, now they are the basis of treatment and prevention in the US. Is the Framingham study now on it's way to becoming the gold standard for genetic epidemiology of CVD? Will the novel genetic findings of today become the health care standards of tomorrow? The accompanying articles summarizing the results of genome-wide association studies (GWAS give the reader a first glimpse into the possibilities.

  10. Stroke risk perception among participants of a stroke awareness campaign

    OpenAIRE

    Heuschmann Peter U; Heidrich Jan; Kraywinkel Klaus; Wagner Markus; Berger Klaus

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background Subjective risk factor perception is an important component of the motivation to change unhealthy life styles. While prior studies assessed cardiovascular risk factor knowledge, little is known about determinants of the individual perception of stroke risk. Methods Survey by mailed questionnaire among 1483 participants of a prior public stroke campaign in Germany. Participants had been informed about their individual stroke risk based on the Framingham stroke risk score. S...

  11. Cardiovascular outcomes in framingham participants with diabetes: the importance of blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guanmin; McAlister, Finlay A; Walker, Robin L; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R; Campbell, Norm R C

    2011-05-01

    We designed this study to explore to what extent the excess risk of cardiovascular events in diabetic individuals is attributable to hypertension. We retrospectively analyzed prospectively collected data from the Framingham original and offspring cohorts. Of the 1145 Framingham subjects newly diagnosed with diabetes mellitus who did not have a previous history of cardiovascular events, 663 (58%) had hypertension at the time that diabetes mellitus was diagnosed. During 4154 person-years of follow-up, 125 died, and 204 experienced a cardiovascular event. Framingham participants with hypertension at the time of diabetes mellitus diagnosis exhibited higher rates of all-cause mortality (32 versus 20 per 1000 person-years; Pdiabetes mellitus. After adjustment for demographic and clinical covariates, hypertension was associated with a 72% increase in the risk of all-cause death and a 57% increase in the risk of any cardiovascular event in individuals with diabetes mellitus. The population-attributable risk from hypertension in individuals with diabetes mellitus was 30% for all-cause death and 25% for any cardiovascular event (increasing to 44% and 41%, respectively, if the 110 normotensive subjects who developed hypertension during follow-up were excluded from the analysis). In comparison, after adjustment for concurrent hypertension, the population-attributable risk from diabetes mellitus in Framingham subjects was 7% for all-cause mortality and 9% for any cardiovascular disease event. Although diabetes mellitus is associated with increased risks of death and cardiovascular events in Framingham subjects, much of this excess risk is attributable to coexistent hypertension.

  12. Modified EBMT Pretransplant Risk Score Can Identify Favorable-risk Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for AML, Not Identified by the HCT-CI Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelis, Fotios V; Messner, Hans A; Uhm, Jieun; Alam, Naheed; Lambie, Anna; McGillis, Laura; Seftel, Matthew D; Gupta, Vikas; Kuruvilla, John; Lipton, Jeffrey H; Kim, Dennis Dong Hwan

    2015-05-01

    Risk scores have been developed for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) outcomes, such as the Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI) and the modified European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation risk score (mEBMT) for acute leukemia. We investigated the influence of these scores for 350 patients who underwent transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The HCT-CI scores were grouped as 0 to 2 and ≥ 3 (231 and 119 patients, respectively) and the mEBMT scores as 0 to 2 and ≥ 3 (166 and 184 patients, respectively). Univariate analysis showed a significant association between the HCT-CI score and overall survival (OS) (P = .01), as did the mEBMT score (P = .002). The 5-year OS rate was 50% and 34% for a mEBMT score of 0 to 2 and ≥ 3, respectively. A subgroup of patients with a mEBMT score of 0 to 1 (n = 32) demonstrated a favorable OS of 75% at 5 years. This subgroup was younger (median age, 31 years), in first remission at transplantation, and had related donors. For the HCT-CI, the 5-year OS was 46% and 34% for a score of 0 to 2 and ≥ 3, respectively. Patients with an HCT-CI score of 0 (n = 94) had a 5-year OS of 44%. Multivariable analysis confirmed both the HCT-CI score and the mEBMT score, as previously grouped, as independent prognostic variables for both OS (P = .02 and P = .001, respectively) and nonrelapse mortality (NRM) (P = .01 and P = .003, respectively). The results of the present study have demonstrated that the HCT-CI and mEBMT are both prognostic for OS and NRM in our cohort. However, the mEBMT score can identify a favorable-risk subgroup of patients not identifiable using the HCT-CI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Foot posture, foot function and low back pain: the Framingham Foot Study

    OpenAIRE

    Menz, Hylton B; Dufour, Alyssa B; Riskowski, Jody L; Hillstrom, Howard J.; Hannan, Marian T.

    2013-01-01

    Objective. Abnormal foot posture and function have been proposed as possible risk factors for low back pain, but this has not been examined in detail. The objective of this study was to explore the associations of foot posture and foot function with low back pain in 1930 members of the Framingham Study (2002–05).

  14. Evaluation of risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus in medical students using Indian diabetes risk score

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    Pranita Ashok

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: According to World Health Organisation, type 2 diabetes mellitus [type 2 D. M] has recently escalated in all age groups and is now being identified in younger age groups. This underscores the need for mass awareness and screening programs to detect diabetes at an early stage. For this purpose we have used a simplified Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS for prediction of diabetes in undergraduate medical students. Objectives: To screen and to identify 1st MBBS students at risk for developing type 2 D. M using IDRS. Materials and Methods : 261 undergraduates (1st MBBS students were scored using IDRS which includes age, family history of diabetes, exercise status, and waist circumference. After scoring them, we assessed random capillary blood glucose (RCBG in students with high IDRS score. Students with RCBG ≥ 113 mg/dl are followed for definitive tests for diagnosis of prediabetes and diabetes. Results and Conclusion: We have assessed 261 students till now. It was observed that 5%, 55%, and 38% students in High, Moderate, and Low risk group, respectively, for developing type 2 D. M. The mean abdominal obesity in high risk students was 101.95 ± 5.76 as compared to 79.17 ± 11.08 in moderate and low risk students (P 113 mg/dl in which one student found to have prediabetic. Conclusion: This underscores the need for further investigations to detect diabetes at an early stage and to overcome the disease burden of diabetes in future. Prevention of obesity and promotion of physical activity have to be the future plan of action which can be suggested in the form of regular exercise and diet planning for the students as part of an integrated approach.

  15. Escore de Framingham na avaliação do risco cardiovascular em diabéticos

    OpenAIRE

    Mariana Costa Larré; Elayne Conceição de Souza Almeida

    2014-01-01

    El objetivo fue identificar el riesgo cardiovascular de diabéticos registrados por un Equipo de Salud Familiar. Estudio transversal, realizado en Aracaju, SE, Brasil, en octubre y noviembre de 2012. Se utilizó el score de Framingham en 80 diabéticos de ambos los sexos. Los participantes tenían entre 30 y 74 años, y la mayoría (70%) era mujer. Por el score de Framingham, hubo mayor proporción (45,8%) de alto riesgo entre los hombres y 41,1% de las mujeres presentaban medio riesgo de desencaden...

  16. Risk scores for diabetes and impaired glycaemia in the Middle East and North Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Handlos, Line Neerup; Witte, Daniel Rinse; Almdal, Thomas Peter

    2013-01-01

    AIMS: To develop risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia for individuals living in the Middle East and North Africa region. In addition, to derive national risk scores for Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and to compare the performance of the regional risk...

  17. Risk scores for diabetes and impaired glycaemia in the Middle East and North Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Handlos, Line Neerup; Witte, Daniel Rinse; Almdal, Thomas Peter

    2013-01-01

    AIMS: To develop risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia for individuals living in the Middle East and North Africa region. In addition, to derive national risk scores for Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and to compare the performance of the regional risk...

  18. A modified Glasgow Blatchford Score improves risk stratification in upper gastrointestinal bleed: a prospective comparison of scoring systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, D W; Lu, Y W; Teller, T; Sekhon, H K; Wu, B U

    2012-10-01

    Several risk scoring systems exist for upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). We hypothesised that a modified Glasgow Blatchford Score (mGBS) that eliminates the subjective components of the GBS might perform as well as current scoring systems. To compare the performance of the mGBS to the most widely reported scoring systems for prediction of clinical outcomes in patients presenting with UGIB. Prospective cohort study from 9/2010 to 9/2011. Accuracy of the mGBS was compared with the full GBS, full Rockall Score (RS) and clinical RS using area under the receiver operating characterstics-curve (AUC). PRIMARY OUTCOME was need for clinical intervention: blood transfusion, endoscopic, radiological or surgical intervention. Secondary outcome was repeat bleeding or mortality. One hundred and ninety-nine patients were included. Median age was 56 with 40% women. Thirty-two per cent patients required blood transfusion, 24% endoscopic interventions, 0.5% radiological intervention, 0 surgical interventions, 5% had repeat bleeding and 0.5% mortality. the mGBS (AUC 0.85) performed as well as the GBS (AUC = 0.86, P = 0.81), and outperformed the full RS (AUC 0.75, P = 0.005) and clinical RS (AUC 0.66, P upper gastrointestinal bleed. By eliminating the subjective components of the Glasgow Blatchford Score, the modified Glasgow Blatchford Score may be easier to use and therefore more easily implemented into routine clinical practice. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  19. Editorial: risk scoring for colon cancer screening: validated, but still not ready for prime time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Otto S

    2011-06-01

    Risk stratification for colorectal cancer screening would allow us to use less expensive screening tests, such as sigmoidoscopy with or without fecal blood testing, on lower risk individuals, and reserve colonoscopy for those at higher risk. In this issue, Levitzky et al. validates a risk score that was previously developed by Imperiale et al., finding similar results among three ethnic groups. Risk scoring would detect 82-87% of proximal advanced neoplasia while decreasing colonoscopy use by 33-46%. However, before risk scoring is ready for widespread use, sigmoidoscopy access and performance issues need to be addressed, and we must be comfortable with missing some proximal neoplasms.

  20. Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: Original Insights from the Framingham Heart Study

    OpenAIRE

    Qazi, Mohammad U.; Malik, Shaista

    2013-01-01

    The role of diabetes in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) was unclear until 1979 when Kannel et al used data from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) to identify diabetes as a major cardiovascular risk factor. It was also one of the first studies to demonstrate the higher risk of CVD in women with diabetes compared to men with diabetes. Since then, multiple studies have been done to recognize and curtail cardiovascular risk factors such as smoking, obesity, hypertension, hyperlipi...

  1. Attributable fractions, modifiable risk factors and risk stratification using a risk score for peri-implant pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Araújo Nobre, Miguel; Mano Azul, António; Rocha, Evangelista; Maló, Paulo; Salvado, Francisco

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to estimate the impact of risk factors for peri-implant pathology, to identify potentially modifiable factors, and to evaluate the accuracy of the risk algorithm, risk scores and risk stratification. This retrospective case-control study with 1275 patients (255 cases; 1020 controls) retrieved a model according to the predictors: history of Periodontitis, bacterial plaque, bleeding, bone level, lack of passive fit or non-optimal screw joint, metal-ceramic restoration, proximity to other implants/teeth, and smoking habits. Outcome measures were the attributable fraction; the positive and negative likelihood ratios at different disease cut-off points illustrated by the area under the curve statistic. Six predictors may be modified or controlled directly by either the patient or the clinician, accounting for a reduction in up to 95% of the peri-implant pathology cases. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 9.69 and 0.13, respectively; the area under the curve was 0.96; a risk score was developed, making the complex statistical model useful to clinicians. Based on the results, six predictors for the incidence of peri-implant pathology can be modified to significantly improve the outcome. It was possible to stratify patients per risk category according to the risk score, providing a tool for clinicians to support their decision-making process. Copyright © 2016 Japan Prosthodontic Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A risk score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Guasch-Ferré

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample. Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample. The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC, German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC. RESULTS: The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%, and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. DISCUSSION: We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire.

  3. A Risk Score to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in an Elderly Spanish Mediterranean Population at High Cardiovascular Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guasch-Ferré, Marta; Bulló, Mònica; Costa, Bernardo; Martínez-Gonzalez, Miguel Ángel; Ibarrola-Jurado, Núria; Estruch, Ramon; Barrio, Francisco; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Introduction To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Materials and Methods A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample). Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample). The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC). Results The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%), and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. Discussion We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire. PMID:22442692

  4. MODALITY OF DETERMINING THE TOTAL SCORE OF RISKS IN INTERNAL AUDIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FRANCA DUMITRU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis materializes in: applying to the weightings of risk factors the level of risk assessment, on risk factors, based on the assessments made by auditors regarding: the functionality of internal control, the influence of quantitative and qualitative elements; determination of the total risk score, which represents a sum of weights between the appreciation level of each risk and the weightings of risk factors.

  5. Polygenic risk score is associated with increased disease risk in 52 Finnish breast cancer families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muranen, Taru A; Mavaddat, Nasim; Khan, Sofia; Fagerholm, Rainer; Pelttari, Liisa; Lee, Andrew; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Easton, Douglas F; Nevanlinna, Heli

    2016-08-01

    The risk of developing breast cancer is increased in women with family history of breast cancer and particularly in families with multiple cases of breast or ovarian cancer. Nevertheless, many women with a positive family history never develop the disease. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on the risk effects of multiple common genetic variants have been proposed for individual risk assessment on a population level. We investigate the applicability of the PRS for risk prediction within breast cancer families. We studied the association between breast cancer risk and a PRS based on 75 common genetic variants in 52 Finnish breast cancer families including 427 genotyped women and pedigree information on ~4000 additional individuals by comparing the affected to healthy family members, as well as in a case-control dataset comprising 1272 healthy population controls and 1681 breast cancer cases with information on family history. Family structure was summarized using the BOADICEA risk prediction model. The PRS was associated with increased disease risk in women with family history of breast cancer as well as in women within the breast cancer families. The odds ratio (OR) for breast cancer within the family dataset was 1.55 [95 % CI 1.26-1.91] per unit increase in the PRS, similar to OR in unselected breast cancer cases of the case-control dataset (1.49 [1.38-1.62]). High PRS-values were informative for risk prediction in breast cancer families, whereas for the low PRS-categories the results were inconclusive. The PRS is informative in women with family history of breast cancer and should be incorporated within pedigree-based clinical risk assessment.

  6. Poor predictive ability of the risk chart SCORE in a Danish population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saidj, Madina; Jørgensen, Torben; Prescott, Eva

    2013-01-01

    In Denmark, the European risk chart Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) from the European Society of Cardiology is recommended for use in cardiovascular prevention. Nevertheless, its predictive ability in a Danish population has never been investigated. The purpose of this study was there...... was therefore to assess the predictive ability of the SCORE risk chart with regard to fatal cardiovascular risk according to the socio-demographic factors of age, sex, income and education in a Danish population....

  7. Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

    2016-01-01

    Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

  8. The application of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS risk-score for risk stratification in Indian patients undergoing cardiac surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Borde

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives: To validate European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS risk-score for predicting mortality and STS risk-score for predicting morbidity in Indian patients after cardiac surgery. Materials and Methods: EuroSCORE II and STS risk-scores were obtained pre-operatively for 498 consecutive patients. The patients were followed for mortality and various morbidities. The calibration of the scoring systems was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The discriminative capacity was estimated by area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: The mortality was 1.6%. For EuroSCORE II and STS risk-score C-statics of 5.43 and 6.11 were obtained indicating satisfactory model fit for both the scores. Area under ROC was 0.69 and 0.65 for EuroSCORE II and STS risk-score with P values of 0.068 and 0.15, respectively, indicating poor discriminatory power. Good fit and discrimination was obtained for renal failure, long-stay in hospital, prolonged ventilator support and deep sternal wound infection but the scores failed in predicting risk of reoperation and stroke. Mortality risk was correctly estimated in low ( 5% patients by both scoring systems. Conclusions: EuroSCORE II and STS risk-scores have satisfactory calibration power in Indian patients but their discriminatory power is poor. Mortality risk was over-estimated by both the scoring systems in high-risk patients. The present study highlights the need for forming a national database and formulating risk stratification tools to provide better quality care to cardiac surgical patients in India.

  9. The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30 824 Europeans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: Recent European guidelines recommend to include high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol in risk assessment for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), using a SCORE-based risk model (SCORE-HDL). We compared the predictive performance of SCORE-HDL with SCORE in an independent......, contemporary, 'low-risk' European population, focusing on ability to identify those in need of intensified CVD prevention. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2008, 46,092 individuals without CVD, diabetes, or statin use were enrolled in the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS). During a mean of 6.......8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40-65; n = 30,824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve...

  10. [Prematurity risk according to prematurity risk score and postpartal morbidity of the newborn infants (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coradello, H; Lubec, G; Simbruner, G

    1981-02-01

    Risk of premature birth was evaluated retrospectively in 610 women in the first days after delivery using the prematurity risk score published by Thalhammer 1973. The calculated risk of premature birth was compared than prospectively to postpartal morbidity of the newborn infants as determined by duration of hospital stay, incidence of respiratory distress syndrome, need of artificial ventilation and mortality. A positive correlation could be found between risk of premature birth and postpartal morbidity of the newborn infants especially in small premature infants with birthweights of 2000 grams and less. The same correlation existed also in two groups of infants out of two different obstetric clinics which showed the same distribution of prenatal risks and the same prenatal care frequencies. It clearly becomes evident that infants with the same prenatal risks but good prenatal care during pregnancy had much lower hospital stays, lower respiratory distress frequencies and lower mortality rates than babies delivered from pregnancies badly cared for. These prenatal care related differences in postpartum morbidity again were much more evident in infants out of lower birth weight classes.

  11. Verification of risk scores to predict i.v. immunoglobulin resistance in incomplete Kawasaki disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamitsu, Kiichiro; Kakimoto, Hisako; Shimada, Akira; Nakata, Yusei; Ochi, Hiroaki; Watanabe, Hirokazu; Iwasaki, Yuka; Tokorodani, Chiho; Kanazawa, Akane; Maruyama, Hidehiko; Miyazawa, Mari; Nishiuchi, Ritsuo; Kikkawa, Kiyoshi

    2016-02-01

    A recent study indicated the efficacy of the addition of prednisolone to i.v. immunoglobulin (IVIG) as initial treatment in patients with higher risk of IVIG resistance. Several different risk scores for predicting IVIG resistance have been proposed, mainly based on typical Kawasaki disease (KD) patients. We investigated the utility of the risk scores to predict IVIG resistance in incomplete KD. Clinical records of incomplete KD patients who received a single dose of IVIG between 2005 and 2012 at Kochi Health Sciences Center were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified into an IVIG-responsive group and an IVIG-resistant group. The Kobayashi, Egami, and Sano risk scores were calculated for each patient and the proportion of high-risk patients was compared between the two groups for each risk score. For 51 incomplete KD patients, Kobayashi (66.7% vs 47.6%, P = 0.253), Egami (55.6% vs 38.1%, P = 0.274), and Sano (57.1% vs 10.8%, P = 0.068) risk scores identified a higher proportion of high-risk patients in the IVIG-resistant group compared with the IVIG-responsive group, but significant difference was not observed. Sano risk score had the highest OR (6.19; 95%CI: 1.00-38.26). The proportion of patients identified as being at high risk for IVIG resistance using the Kobayashi, Egami, and Sano risk scores, respectively, was not significantly different between the IVIG-responsive group and the IVIG-resistant group for incomplete KD. Among the three risk scores, the Sano risk score has the best ability to predict IVIG resistance in incomplete KD. © 2015 Japan Pediatric Society.

  12. Systematic review of obesity surgery mortality risk score--preoperative risk stratification in bariatric surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Harun; Agrawal, Sanjay

    2012-07-01

    Bariatric surgery is the best long term treatment for morbid obesity. However, it carries risks of considerable morbidity and potential mortality. There is no published review on pre-operative identification of high-risk patients in bariatric surgery. This systematic review analyses obesity surgery mortality risk score (OS-MRS) as a tool for pre-operative prediction of mortality risk in bariatric surgery. Medline and Embase was systematically searched using the medical subjects headings (MeSH) terms 'bariatric surgery' and 'mortality' with further free text search and cross references. Studies that described OS-MRS to predict mortality risk after bariatric surgery were included in this review. Six studies evaluated 9,382 patients to assess the validity of OS-MRS to predict the mortality risk after bariatric surgery. Patient's age ranged from 19 to 67 years, and the body mass index ranged from 30 to 84. There were 83 deaths among the 9,382 patients (0.88 %) with individual studies reporting a mortality range from 0 % to 1.49 %. There were 13 deaths among 4,912 (0.26 %) class A patients, 55 deaths among 4,124 (1.33 %) class B patients and 15 deaths among 346 (4.34 %) class C patients. Mortality in classes A, B and C was significantly different from each of the other two classes (P < 0.05, χ(2)). This systematic review confirms that OS-MRS stratifies the mortality risk in the three-risk classification subgroups of patients. The OS-MRS can be used for pre-operative identification of high-risk patients undergoing primary Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery.

  13. Vertebral fracture risk (VFR) score for fracture prediction in postmenopausal Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lillholm, Martin; Ghosh, A.; Pettersen, P. C.

    2011-01-01

    Early prognosis of osteoporosis risk is not only important to individual patients but is also a key factor when screening for osteoporosis drug trial populations. We present an osteoporosis fracture risk score based on vertebral heights. The score separated individuals who sustained fractures (by...

  14. Polygenic risk scores for smoking: Predictors for alcohol and cannabis use?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vink, J.M.; Hottenga, J.J.; Geus, E.J.C. de; Willemsen, G.; Neale, M.C.; Furberg, H.; Boomsma, D.I.

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims A strong correlation exists between smoking and the use of alcohol and cannabis. This paper uses polygenic risk scores to explore the possibility of overlapping genetic factors. Those scores reflect a combined effect of selected risk alleles for smoking. Methods Summary-level P-v

  15. Polygenic risk scores for smoking: Predictors for alcohol and cannabis use?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vink, J.M.; Hottenga, J.J.; Geus, E.J.C. de; Willemsen, G.; Neale, M.C.; Furberg, H.; Boomsma, D.I.

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims A strong correlation exists between smoking and the use of alcohol and cannabis. This paper uses polygenic risk scores to explore the possibility of overlapping genetic factors. Those scores reflect a combined effect of selected risk alleles for smoking. Methods Summary-level

  16. Feasibility and reliability of a newly developed antenatal risk score card in routine care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen, M.J.; Birnie, E.; Poeran, J.; Torij, H.W.; Steegers, E.A.P.; Bonsel, G.J.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: to study in routine care the feasibility and inter-rater reliability of the Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction risk score card (R4U), a new semi-quantitative score card for use during the antenatal booking visit. The R4U covers clinical and non-clinical psychosocial factors and ident

  17. Diet scores and cardio-metabolic risk factors among Guatemalan young adults

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    We assessed the association of four diet quality scores with multiple cardio-metabolic outcomes among Guatemalan young adults experiencing the nutrition transition. We obtained cross-sectional dietary, demographic, anthropometric and cardio-metabolic risk factor data from 1220 Guatemalan adults (mean age 32·7 (SD 5·8) years) in 2002–4, and computed a Recommended Food Score (RFS), Not Recommended Food Score (NRFS), Food Variety Score (FVS) and the Dietary Quality Index-International (DQI-I). A...

  18. A risk prediction score for invasive mold disease in patients with hematological malignancies.

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    Marta Stanzani

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008 to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. RESULTS: Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of 5% of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99. During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001. CONCLUSION: An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate "screening-out" of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis.

  19. Role of disease risk scores in comparative effectiveness research with emerging therapies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Robert J; Gagne, Joshua J; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

    2012-01-01

    Background Usefulness of propensity scores and regression models to balance potential confounders at treatment initiation may be limited for newly introduced therapies with evolving use patterns. Objectives To consider settings in which the disease risk score has theoretical advantages as a balancing score in comparative effectiveness research, because of stability of disease risk and the availability of ample historical data on outcomes in people treated before introduction of the new therapy. Methods We review the indications for and balancing properties of disease risk scores in the setting of evolving therapies, and discuss alternative approaches for estimation. We illustrate development of a disease risk score in the context of the introduction of atorvastatin and the use of high-dose statin therapy beginning in 1997, based on data from 5,668 older survivors of myocardial infarction who filled a statin prescription within 30 days after discharge from 1995 until 2004. Theoretical considerations suggested development of a disease risk score among non-users of atorvastatin and high-dose statins during the period 1995–1997. Results Observed risk of events increased from 11% to 35% across quintiles of the disease risk score which had a C-statistic of 0.71. The score allowed control of many potential confounders even during early follow-up with few study endpoints. Conclusions Balancing on a disease risk score offers an attractive alternative to a propensity score in some settings such as newly marketed drugs and provides an important axis for evaluation of potential effect modification. Joint consideration of propensity and disease risk scores may be valuable. PMID:22552989

  20. A genetic risk score combining ten psoriasis risk loci improves disease prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoyan Chen

    Full Text Available Psoriasis is a chronic, immune-mediated skin disease affecting 2-3% of Caucasians. Recent genetic association studies have identified multiple psoriasis risk loci; however, most of these loci contribute only modestly to disease risk. In this study, we investigated whether a genetic risk score (GRS combining multiple loci could improve psoriasis prediction. Two approaches were used: a simple risk alleles count (cGRS and a weighted (wGRS approach. Ten psoriasis risk SNPs were genotyped in 2815 case-control samples and 858 family samples. We found that the total number of risk alleles in the cases was significantly higher than in controls, mean 13.16 (SD 1.7 versus 12.09 (SD 1.8, p = 4.577×10(-40. The wGRS captured considerably more risk than any SNP considered alone, with a psoriasis OR for high-low wGRS quartiles of 10.55 (95% CI 7.63-14.57, p = 2.010×10(-65. To compare the discriminatory ability of the GRS models, receiver operating characteristic curves were used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC. The AUC for wGRS was significantly greater than for cGRS (72.0% versus 66.5%, p = 2.13×10(-8. Additionally, the AUC for HLA-C alone (rs10484554 was equivalent to the AUC for all nine other risk loci combined (66.2% versus 63.8%, p = 0.18, highlighting the dominance of HLA-C as a risk locus. Logistic regression revealed that the wGRS was significantly associated with two subphenotypes of psoriasis, age of onset (p = 4.91×10(-6 and family history (p = 0.020. Using a liability threshold model, we estimated that the 10 risk loci account for only 11.6% of the genetic variance in psoriasis. In summary, we found that a GRS combining 10 psoriasis risk loci captured significantly more risk than any individual SNP and was associated with early onset of disease and a positive family history. Notably, only a small fraction of psoriasis heritability is captured by the common risk variants identified to date.

  1. The comparison of cardiovascular risk scores using two methods of substituting missing risk factor data in patient medical records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Dalton

    2011-07-01

    Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

  2. Risk score for prediction of 10 year dementia risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exalto, Lieza G; Biessels, Geert Jan; Karter, Andrew J; Huang, Elbert S; Katon, Wayne J; Minkoff, Jerome R; Whitmer, Rachel A

    2013-11-01

    Although patients with type 2 diabetes are twice as likely to develop dementia as those without this disease, prediction of who has the highest future risk is difficult. We therefore created and validated a practical summary risk score that can be used to provide an estimate of the 10 year dementia risk for individuals with type 2 diabetes. Using data from two longitudinal cohorts of patients with type 2 diabetes (aged ≥60 years) with 10 years of follow-up, we created (n=29,961) and validated (n=2413) the risk score. We built our prediction model by evaluating 45 candidate predictors using Cox proportional hazard models and developed a point system for the risk score based on the size of the predictor's β coefficient. Model prediction was tested by discrimination and calibration methods. Dementia risk per sum score was calculated with Kaplan-Meier estimates. Microvascular disease, diabetic foot, cerebrovascular disease, cardiovascular disease, acute metabolic events, depression, age, and education were most strongly predictive of dementia and constituted the risk score (C statistic 0·736 for creation cohort and 0·746 for validation cohort). The dementia risk was 5·3% (95% CI 4·2-6·3) for the lowest score (-1) and 73·3% (64·8-81·8) for the highest (12-19) sum scores. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first risk score for the prediction of 10 year dementia risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk score can be used to increase vigilance for cognitive deterioration and for selection of high-risk patients for participation in clinical trials. Kaiser Permanente Community Benefit, National Institute of Health, Utrecht University, ZonMw, and Fulbright. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A weighted genetic risk score using all known susceptibility variants to estimate rheumatoid arthritis risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarwood, Annie; Han, Buhm; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Bowes, John; Lunt, Mark; Pappas, Dimitrios A; Kremer, Joel; Greenberg, Jeffrey D; Plenge, Robert; Worthington, Jane; Barton, Anne; Eyre, Steve

    2015-01-01

    Background There is currently great interest in the incorporation of genetic susceptibility loci into screening models to identify individuals at high risk of disease. Here, we present the first risk prediction model including all 46 known genetic loci associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods A weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) was created using 45 RA non-human leucocyte antigen (HLA) susceptibility loci, imputed amino acids at HLA-DRB1 (11, 71 and 74), HLA-DPB1 (position 9) HLA-B (position 9) and gender. The wGRS was tested in 11 366 RA cases and 15 489 healthy controls. The risk of developing RA was estimated using logistic regression by dividing the wGRS into quintiles. The ability of the wGRS to discriminate between cases and controls was assessed by receiver operator characteristic analysis and discrimination improvement tests. Results Individuals in the highest risk group showed significantly increased odds of developing anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide-positive RA compared to the lowest risk group (OR 27.13, 95% CI 23.70 to 31.05). The wGRS was validated in an independent cohort that showed similar results (area under the curve 0.78, OR 18.00, 95% CI 13.67 to 23.71). Comparison of the full wGRS with a wGRS in which HLA amino acids were replaced by a HLA tag single-nucleotide polymorphism showed a significant loss of sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions Our study suggests that in RA, even when using all known genetic susceptibility variants, prediction performance remains modest; while this is insufficiently accurate for general population screening, it may prove of more use in targeted studies. Our study has also highlighted the importance of including HLA variation in risk prediction models. PMID:24092415

  4. Correlation between Timi Risk Score and Clinical Outcome in Patients with Unstable Angina Pectoris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savovic Zorica

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given Taking that the TIMI score is a major predictor of MACE, this study aimed to determine the value of the TIMI risk score in predicting poor outcomes (death, myocardial infarction, recurrent pain in patients presenting with unstable angina pectoris in short-term observation. A total of 107 patients with APns were examined at the Clinical Centre Kragujevac and were included in the investigation. The TIMI score was determined on the first day of hospitalization. During hospitalization, the following factors were also observed: troponin, ECG evolution, further therapy (pharmacologic therapy and/or emergency PCI or CABG, age, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. The low-risk group (TIMI 0 - 2 included 30.8% of patients, whereas 47.6% of patients were in the intermediate-risk group (TIMI 3 - 4, and 21.5% of patients were in the high-risk group (TIMI 5 - 7. Good outcomes (without adverse event and poor outcomes (death, myocardial infarction, and recurring chest pain were dependent on the TIMI risk score. The increase in TIMI risk score per one unit increased the risk of a poor outcome by 54%. Troponin and TIMI risk score were positively correlated. Our results suggest that the TIMI risk score may be a reliable predictor of a poor outcome (MACE during the short-term observation of patients with APns. Moreover, patients identified as high-risk benefit from early invasive PCI, enoxaparin and Gp IIb/IIIa inhibitors. Th us, routine use of the TIMI risk score at admission may reduce the number of patients not recognized as high-risk.

  5. Midregional Proadrenomedullin Improves Risk Stratification beyond Surgical Risk Scores in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

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    Adam Csordas

    Full Text Available Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR. Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population.We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population.We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality.During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%. Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0-26.0, P 6.8 only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8-5.6, P = 0.13. The Harrell's C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45-0.82 for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71-0.92, P = 0.01. In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1-31.3, P <0.01 and improved the model's net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28-1.59. These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort.Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis.

  6. Beyond the SYNTAX score--advantages and limitations of other risk assessment systems in left main percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capodanno, Davide

    2013-01-01

    Risk stratification is an emerging topic in the modern management of patients with left main disease referred for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Recent years have witnessed an explosive multiplication of risk models for prognostic stratification in complex PCI. Many of this models deal with modification of the angiographic SYNTAX score, or seek to overcome its known pitfalls and limitations, including lack of clinical and functional information, inter- and intra-observer variabilities, and poor calibration. Risk scoring systems beyond the SYNTAX score may be classified into angiographic (residual SYNTAX score, coronary artery bypass grafting SYNTAX score), clinical (EuroSCORE I and II, ACEF score and modified ACEF scores), combined clinical and angiographic (Global Risk Classification, Clinical SYNTAX score, logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, SYNTAX score II) and functional (Functional SYNTAX score). This article reviews current concepts in risk modeling and explores the advantages and limitations of the alternatives to the SYNTAX score in patients undergoing left main PCI. 

  7. A Risk Score for Fluconazole Failure among Patients with Candidemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrosky-Zeichner, Luis; Harrington, Rachel; Azie, Nkechi; Yang, Hongbo; Li, Nanxin; Zhao, Jing; Koo, Valerie; Wu, Eric Q

    2017-05-01

    This study aimed to develop a prediction model to identify patients with candidemia who were at high risk of failing fluconazole treatment. Adult patients in the United States with candidemia who received fluconazole during hospitalization were selected from the Cerner Health Facts Hospital Database (04/2004 to 03/2013). Fluconazole failure was defined as switching/adding another antifungal, positive Candida culture ≥10 days after fluconazole initiation, or death during hospitalization. Patients were randomized into modeling and validation samples. Using the modeling sample, a regression analysis of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used to select risk predictors of fluconazole failure (demographics, Candida species, initiation of fluconazole before positive culture and after admission, and comorbidities, procedures, and treatments during the 6 months before admission and fluconazole initiation). The prediction model was evaluated using the validation sample. We found that of 987 identified patients (average age of 61 years, 51% male, 72% Caucasian), 49% failed and 51% did not fail fluconazole treatment. Of those who failed, 70% switched or added another antifungal, 21% had a second positive Candida test, and 42% died during hospitalization. Nine risk factors were included in the prediction model: days to start fluconazole after admission, Candida glabrata or Candida krusei infection, hematological malignancy, venous thromboembolism (VTE), enteral nutrition, use of nonoperative intubation/irrigation, and other antifungal use. All but VTE were associated with a higher risk of failure. The model's c-statistic was 0.65, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P value of 0.23. In summary, this prediction model identified patients with a high risk of fluconazole failure, illustrating the potential value and feasibility of personalizing candidemia treatment. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  8. Development and Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score for Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belsky, Daniel W.; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Houts, Renate; McCarthy, Jeanette; Caspi, Avshalom

    2013-01-01

    Background Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) represent a potential resource for etiological and treatment research. GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes have been especially successful. To translate this success into a research tool, we developed and tested a “genetic risk score” (GRS) that summarizes an individual’s genetic predisposition to obesity. Methods Different GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes report different sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as the best genomic markers of obesity risk. Therefore, we applied a 3-stage approach that pooled results from multiple GWAS to select SNPs to include in our GRS: The 3 stages are (1) Extraction. SNPs with evidence of association are compiled from published GWAS; (2) Clustering. SNPs are grouped according to patterns of linkage disequilibrium; (3) Selection. Tag SNPs are selected from clusters that meet specific criteria. We applied this 3-stage approach to results from 16 GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes in European-descent samples to create a GRS. We then tested the GRS in the Atherosclerosis Risk in the Communities (ARIC) Study cohort (N=10,745, 55% female, 77% white, 23% African American). Results Our 32-locus GRS was a statistically significant predictor of body mass index (BMI) and obesity among ARIC whites (for BMI, r=0.13, p<1×10−30; for obesity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)=0.57 [95% CI 0.55–0.58]). The GRS improved prediction of obesity (as measured by delta-AUC and integrated discrimination index) when added to models that included demographic and geographic information. FTO- and MC4R-linked SNPs, and a non-genetic risk assessment consisting of a socioeconomic index (p<0.01 for all comparisons). The GRS also predicted increased mortality risk over 17 years of follow-up. The GRS performed less well among African Americans. Conclusions The obesity GRS derived using our 3-stage approach is not useful for clinical risk prediction, but

  9. Risk prediction is improved by adding markers of subclinical organ damage to SCORE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen Lykke; Hansen, Tine W;

    2010-01-01

    .8-5.9)], PWV > 12 m/s [HR 1.9 (1.1-3.3) for SCORE > or = 5% and 7.3 (3.2-16.1) for SCORE or = 5% as well as subclinical organ damage, increased specificity of risk prediction from 75 to 81% (P sensitivity from 72 to 65% (P = 0.......4). Broaden primary prevention from subjects with SCORE > or = 5% to include subjects with 1% organ damage increased sensitivity from 72 to 89% (P = 0.006), but reduced specificity from 75 to 57% (P ....07). CONCLUSION: Subclinical organ damage predicted cardiovascular death independently of SCORE and the combination may improve risk prediction....

  10. Association of a Dietary Score with Incident Type 2 Diabetes: The Dietary-Based Diabetes-Risk Score (DDS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia J Dominguez

    Full Text Available Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS, which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN ("Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" longitudinal study.We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points. Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR of T2DM.We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25-39 points vs. low (11-24 category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40-60 vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019.The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve dietary habits of subjects at high risk of T2DM

  11. Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. DESIGN: International multicentre prospective study. SETTING: Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania....... RESULTS: The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P... thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay. CONCLUSIONS: The Glasgow Blatchford score has high...

  12. Cardiovascular risk assessment in rheumatoid arthritis: impact of the EULAR recommendations on a national calibrated score risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosales-Alexander, J L; Salvatierra, J; Llorca, J; Magro-Checa, C; González-Gay, M A; Cantero-Hinojosa, J; Raya-Álvarez, E

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate the impact of the application of the EULAR task force recommendations in the cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients according to a national calibrated SCORE. Two hundred and one consecutive RA patients seen at the rheumatology outpatient clinics of the University Hospital 'San Cecilio', Granada, Southern Spain, were studied. Information on demographic, classic CV risk factors, history of CV events and disease clinical features were obtained. Both the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) risk index and the modified SCORE (mSCORE) following the EULAR recommendations were performed. Based on the classic CV risk factors the mean ± standard deviation SCORE was 2.2 ± 2.6 (median 2). Twenty-two (11%) patients were above the threshold of high risk for the Spanish population. Following the EULAR recommendations 52 of the 124 patients (41.93%) initially classified as having intermediate risk were reclassified as having high CV risk. Therefore, the mean mSCORE was 3.3 ± 4 (median 3) and, due to this, 74 (36.8%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk for the Spanish population. As expected, patients who had experienced CV events were older, had more CV risk factors and higher mSCORE than those without CV events. These observations support the claim that the mSCORE should be specifically adapted to the population to be assessed. However, the use of additional tools should be considered in an attempt to fully identify high-risk RA patients.

  13. Dietary Intake Is Related to Multifactor Cardiovascular Risk Score in Obese Boys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Tracy L.; Burrows, Tracy L.; Cliff, Dylan P.; Jones, Rachel A.; Okely, Anthony D.; Baur, Louise A.; Morgan, Philip J.; Callister, Robin; Boggess, May M.; Collins, Clare E.

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) originates in childhood and early identification of risk factors provides an early intervention opportunity. The aim was to identify children at higher risk using a CVD risk score, developed from factors known to cluster in childhood. Risk was scored as very high (≥97.5th centile), high (≥95th), moderate (≥90th) or threshold (<90th) using normal pediatric reference ranges for 10 common biomedical risk factors. These were summed in a multifactor CVD risk score and applied to a sample of 285 observations from 136 overweight Australian children (41% male, aged 7–12 years). Strength of associations between CVD risk score and individual biomedical and dietary variables were assessed using univariate logistic regression. High waist circumference (Odds Ratio: 5.48 [95% CI: 2.60–11.55]), body mass index (OR: 3.22 [1.98–5.26]), serum insulin (OR: 3.37 [2.56–4.42]) and triglycerides (OR: 3.02 [2.22–4.12]) were all significantly related to CVD risk score. High intakes of total fat (OR: 4.44 [1.19–16.60]), sugar (OR: 2.82 [1.54–5.15]) and carbohydrate (OR 1.75 [1.11–2.77]) were significantly related to CVD risk score in boys only. This multifactor CVD risk score could be a useful tool for researchers to identify elevated risk in children. Further research is warranted to examine sex-specific dietary factors related to CVD risk in children. PMID:27429277

  14. Dietary Intake Is Related to Multifactor Cardiovascular Risk Score in Obese Boys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracy L. Schumacher

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD originates in childhood and early identification of risk factors provides an early intervention opportunity. The aim was to identify children at higher risk using a CVD risk score, developed from factors known to cluster in childhood. Risk was scored as very high (≥97.5th centile, high (≥95th, moderate (≥90th or threshold (<90th using normal pediatric reference ranges for 10 common biomedical risk factors. These were summed in a multifactor CVD risk score and applied to a sample of 285 observations from 136 overweight Australian children (41% male, aged 7–12 years. Strength of associations between CVD risk score and individual biomedical and dietary variables were assessed using univariate logistic regression. High waist circumference (Odds Ratio: 5.48 [95% CI: 2.60–11.55], body mass index (OR: 3.22 [1.98–5.26], serum insulin (OR: 3.37 [2.56–4.42] and triglycerides (OR: 3.02 [2.22–4.12] were all significantly related to CVD risk score. High intakes of total fat (OR: 4.44 [1.19–16.60], sugar (OR: 2.82 [1.54–5.15] and carbohydrate (OR 1.75 [1.11–2.77] were significantly related to CVD risk score in boys only. This multifactor CVD risk score could be a useful tool for researchers to identify elevated risk in children. Further research is warranted to examine sex-specific dietary factors related to CVD risk in children.

  15. Regression coefficient-based scoring system should be used to assign weights to the risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Hemalkumar B; Mehta, Vinay; Girman, Cynthia J; Adhikari, Deepak; Johnson, Michael L

    2016-11-01

    Some previously developed risk scores contained a mathematical error in their construction: risk ratios were added to derive weights to construct a summary risk score. This study demonstrates the mathematical error and derived different versions of the Charlson comorbidity score (CCS) using regression coefficient-based and risk ratio-based scoring systems to further demonstrate the effects of incorrect weighting on performance in predicting mortality. This retrospective cohort study included elderly people from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Cox proportional hazards regression models were constructed for time to 1-year mortality. Weights were assigned to 17 comorbidities using regression coefficient-based and risk ratio-based scoring systems. Different versions of CCS were compared using Akaike information criteria (AIC), McFadden's adjusted R(2), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Regression coefficient-based models (Beta, Beta10/integer, Beta/Schneeweiss, Beta/Sullivan) had lower AIC and higher R(2) compared to risk ratio-based models (HR/Charlson, HR/Johnson). Regression coefficient-based CCS reclassified more number of people into the correct strata (NRI range, 9.02-10.04) compared to risk ratio-based CCS (NRI range, 8.14-8.22). Previously developed risk scores contained an error in their construction adding ratios instead of multiplying them. Furthermore, as demonstrated here, adding ratios fail to even work adequately from a practical standpoint. CCS derived using regression coefficients performed slightly better than in fitting the data compared to risk ratio-based scoring systems. Researchers should use a regression coefficient-based scoring system to develop a risk index, which is theoretically correct. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: impact of the new EULAR recommendations on the score cardiovascular risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Vaquero, Carmen; Robustillo, Montserrat; Narváez, Javier; Rodríguez-Moreno, Jesús; González-Juanatey, Carlos; Llorca, Javier; Nolla, Joan Miquel; González-Gay, Miguel Angel

    2012-01-01

    To assess the impact of the application of the European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) task force recommendations in the cardiovascular (CV) risk of a series of Spanish patients diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Two hundred consecutive RA patients seen at the rheumatology outpatient clinics of Bellvitge Hospital, Barcelona, were studied. Information on clinical features of the disease, classic CV risk factors, and history of CV events was assessed. Both the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) CV risk index and the modified SCORE (mSCORE) according to the last EULAR recommendations were calculated. Based on the classic CV risk factors, the mean ± standard deviation SCORE was 2.1 ± 2.3% (median, 2; interquartile range [IQR], 1-3). Twenty-three (11%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk for the Spanish population (≥5%). Following the EULAR recommendations, a change in the score was required in 119 (59%) patients. Therefore, the mean mSCORE was 2.7 ± 2.9% (median, 2; IQR, 1-3) and, due to this, 28 (14%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk. Nine (5%) had at least one ischemic CV event. Patients with CV events were older and had more CV risk factors and higher SCORE and mSCORE than those without CV events. Although a large proportion of patients from this series fulfilled the criteria for the application of the EULAR recommendations, the final impact on the calculated CV risk was low and clinically significant in only a few patients. However, an association between the mSCORE and the presence of ischemic CV events was observed.

  17. Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R; Ngu, Jing H; Schultz, Michael; Abazi, Roseta; Zakko, Liam; Thornton, Susan; Wilkinson, Kelly; Khor, Cristopher J L; Murray, Iain A; Laursen, Stig B

    2017-01-04

     To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  International multicentre prospective study.  Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.  3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.  The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length

  18. Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Risk among Low-Income Urban Dwellers in Metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Tin Tin Su; Mohammadreza Amiri; Farizah Mohd Hairi; Nithiah Thangiah; Awang Bulgiba; Hazreen Abdul Majid

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to predict the ten-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among low-income urban dwellers of metropolitan Malaysia. Participants were selected from a cross-sectional survey conducted in Kuala Lumpur. To assess the 10-year CVD risk, we employed the Framingham risk scoring (FRS) models. Significant determinants of the ten-year CVD risk were identified using General Linear Model (GLM). Altogether 882 adults (≥30 years old with no CVD history) were randomly selected. The classic FRS mode...

  19. Developing a Conceptually Equivalent Type 2 Diabetes Risk Score for Indian Gujaratis in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Naina; Willis, Andrew; Stone, Margaret; Barber, Shaun; Gray, Laura; Davies, Melanie; Khunti, Kamlesh

    2016-01-01

    Aims. To apply and assess the suitability of a model consisting of commonly used cross-cultural translation methods to achieve a conceptually equivalent Gujarati language version of the Leicester self-assessment type 2 diabetes risk score. Methods. Implementation of the model involved multiple stages, including pretesting of the translated risk score by conducting semistructured interviews with a purposive sample of volunteers. Interviews were conducted on an iterative basis to enable findings to inform translation revisions and to elicit volunteers' ability to self-complete and understand the risk score. Results. The pretest stage was an essential component involving recruitment of a diverse sample of 18 Gujarati volunteers, many of whom gave detailed suggestions for improving the instructions for the calculation of the risk score and BMI table. Volunteers found the standard and level of Gujarati accessible and helpful in understanding the concept of risk, although many of the volunteers struggled to calculate their BMI. Conclusions. This is the first time that a multicomponent translation model has been applied to the translation of a type 2 diabetes risk score into another language. This project provides an invaluable opportunity to share learning about the transferability of this model for translation of self-completed risk scores in other health conditions.

  20. Developing a Conceptually Equivalent Type 2 Diabetes Risk Score for Indian Gujaratis in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naina Patel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To apply and assess the suitability of a model consisting of commonly used cross-cultural translation methods to achieve a conceptually equivalent Gujarati language version of the Leicester self-assessment type 2 diabetes risk score. Methods. Implementation of the model involved multiple stages, including pretesting of the translated risk score by conducting semistructured interviews with a purposive sample of volunteers. Interviews were conducted on an iterative basis to enable findings to inform translation revisions and to elicit volunteers’ ability to self-complete and understand the risk score. Results. The pretest stage was an essential component involving recruitment of a diverse sample of 18 Gujarati volunteers, many of whom gave detailed suggestions for improving the instructions for the calculation of the risk score and BMI table. Volunteers found the standard and level of Gujarati accessible and helpful in understanding the concept of risk, although many of the volunteers struggled to calculate their BMI. Conclusions. This is the first time that a multicomponent translation model has been applied to the translation of a type 2 diabetes risk score into another language. This project provides an invaluable opportunity to share learning about the transferability of this model for translation of self-completed risk scores in other health conditions.

  1. A Study of Risk Factors and T- Score Variability in Romanian Women with Postmenopausal Osteoporosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodica TöRöK-Oance

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to analyse the prevalence of postmenopausal osteoporosis risk factors and to analyse the T-score variability in spine and hip according to the associated risk factors.This is a retrospective study (2003-2007 including 177 female patients with postmenopausal osteoporosis. The patients were separated in seven groups according to the number of risk factors per case. The T-score was compared between this groups using unpaired t-Student test.The most frequent risk factor was early menopause (44.63%, followed by low consumption of dairy products (37.29%, coffee consumption (25.99%, sedentary lifestyle (20.9%, smoking (19.21%, delayed menarche (15.25%, low body mass index (10.71%, nulliparity (7.91%, alcohol consumption (0.56%. The maximum number of risk factors per case was six. The T-score decreased with increasing number of risk factors. T-score differences are statistically significant when comparing cases with 6 risk factors to cases with 5 risk factors (P=0.0315 in spine; P=0.0088 in hip, 4 risk factors (P=0.0076 in spine; P=0.043 in hip, 3 risk factors (P<0.0001 in spine; P=0.0205 in hip, 2 risk factors (P=0.0012 in spine; P<0.0001 in hip, a single risk factor (P<0.001 in spine and hip and no risk factor (P=0.0075 in spine; P=0.0006 in hip.Association of several risk factors leads to decrease of T-score so being able to avoid any such factors may contribute to a better bone mineral density. This could be achieved by the education of female population regarding postmenopausal osteoporosis risk factors, followed by adopting an appropriate lifestyle and diet.

  2. Poor predictive ability of the risk chart SCORE in a Danish population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saidj, Madina; Jørgensen, Torben; Prescott, Eva;

    2013-01-01

    In Denmark, the European risk chart Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) from the European Society of Cardiology is recommended for use in cardiovascular prevention. Nevertheless, its predictive ability in a Danish population has never been investigated. The purpose of this study was there...... was therefore to assess the predictive ability of the SCORE risk chart with regard to fatal cardiovascular risk according to the socio-demographic factors of age, sex, income and education in a Danish population.......In Denmark, the European risk chart Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) from the European Society of Cardiology is recommended for use in cardiovascular prevention. Nevertheless, its predictive ability in a Danish population has never been investigated. The purpose of this study...

  3. A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

  4. Prognostic value of risk score and urinary markers in idiopathic membranous nephropathy.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand, Jan van den; Hofstra, J.M.; Wetzels, J.F.M.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Accurate prediction of prognosis may improve management of patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy. This study compared the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: One hundred four patients with b

  5. clinical risk index for babies (crib) ii score as a predictor of neonatal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-01-01

    Jan 1, 2011 ... Among them is the scoring system Clinical Risk Index for Babies also known as CRIB II score. .... strongly with hospital neonatal mortality, the cost of ... analysis was obtained using standard procedure ... then labelled and transported to the laboratory ... labor, the babies' details – the components of CRIB.

  6. A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holme, Ingar; Pedersen, Terje R; Boman, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    BackgroundPrognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.ObjectivesTo develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk...... of mortality, using data from the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study.MethodA search for significant prognostic factors (p...

  7. Evaluation of nosocomial infection risk using APACHE II scores in the neurological intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hai-Ying; Li, Shu-Juan; Yang, Nan; Hu, Wen-Li

    2014-08-01

    To evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of using the Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring system for predicting the risk of nosocomial infection in the neurological intensive care unit (NICU), 216 patients transferred to NICU within 24hours of admission were retrospectively evaluated. Based on admission APACHE II scores, they were classified into three groups, with higher APACHE II scores representing higher infectious risk. The device utilization ratios and device-associated infection ratios of NICU patients were analyzed and compared with published reports on patient outcome. Statistical analysis of nosocomial infection ratios showed obvious differences between the high-risk, middle-risk and low-risk groups (pAPACHE II model in predicting the risk of nosocomial infection was 0.81, which proved to be reliable and consistent with the expectation. In addition, we found statistical differences in the duration of hospital stay (patient-days) and device utilization (device-days) between different risk groups (pAPACHE II scoring system was validated in predicting the risk of nosocomial infection, duration of patient-days and device-days, and providing accurate assessment of patients' condition, so that appropriate prevention strategies can be implemented based on admission APACHE II scores.

  8. How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2009-06-01

    Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC\\/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation.

  9. Using family atopy scores to identify the risk of atopic dermatitis in infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melisa Anggraeni

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background Atopic dermatitis is the first manifestation of allergic disease in early life. Early interventions may prevent the development of allergy disease. Allergy trace cards have been used to identify the level of allergic risk, based on family atopy scores. Because environmental factors may also influence the development of atopic dermatitis, the usefulness of the allergy trace card needs to be reevaluated. Objective To compare the incidence of atopic dermatitis in infants aged 0-4 months with total family atopy scores of > 0 to those with scores of 0. Methods We conducted this cohort study from June 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012 at Sanglah Hospital, Denpasar. Family atopy score was tabulated from all pregnant woman in the Obstetric Outpatient Clinic and the Maternity Room. Subjects were divided into two groups based on their total family atopy score: those with scores > 0 and those with scores of 0. The appearance of atopic dermatitis symptoms in the infants were evaluated until they reached 4 months of age. The incidence of atopic dermatitis in two groups was compared using Chi-square test. Results The incidence of atopic dermatitis in this study was 10.9%. The group with total family atopy scores of 0 had a significantly higher incidence of atopic dermatitis than the group with scores > 0 (adjusted RR 22.5; 95%CI 8.8 to 57.0; P = 0.001. Conclusion The incidence of atopic dermatitis is higher in infants with total family atopy score > 0 and this group has a 22.5 times higher risk of atopic dermatitis compared to infants with total family atopy score of 0. Allergy trace cards are relevant in differentiating the risk of atopy with regards to development of atopic dermatitis. We suggest that family atopy scores be evaluated during antenatal care in order to limit the development of atopic dermatitis in infants. [Paediatr Indones. 2014;54:330-7.].

  10. Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Sinnott Silva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI, EuroSCORE II (ESII, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score, Ambler score (AS and Guaragna score (GS. The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42 for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16 for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68 for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64 for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05. Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

  11. [A simple point score for definition of the risk of postoperative complications].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundmann, R; Papoulis, C

    1989-01-01

    During a 5-year-period we recorded prospectively 5,823 patients who had undergone general surgery and documented the postoperative complications as wound infection, pneumonia, reoperations and death. A score including all these complications was developed to evaluate the risk of an operation more exactly than using the wound infection rate alone. This method seems to provide a continuous monitoring and the comparison of the complication risks of certain operations within a quality assurance program. For gastric and colon surgery we found a correlation between postoperative antibiotic use and score, but not between score and postoperative hospitalization time.

  12. A Bayesian framework for automated cardiovascular risk scoring on standard lumbar radiographs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Peter Kersten; Ganz, Melanie; Mysling, Peter

    2012-01-01

    the score. Since the aorta is invisible on X-ray images, its position is reasoned from (1) the shape and location of the lumbar vertebrae and (2) the location, shape, and orientation of potential calcifications. The proposed framework follows the principle of Bayesian inference, which has several advantages......We present a fully automated framework for scoring a patients risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality from a standard lateral radiograph of the lumbar aorta. The framework segments abdominal aortic calcifications for computing a CVD risk score and performs a survival analysis to validate...

  13. Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Chang, Nai-Wen; Dai, Hong-Jie

    2015-12-01

    Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD.

  14. Transient global amnesia and neurological events: the Framingham Heart Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Rafael Romero

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Background/ objective: Transient global amnesia (TGA is a temporary amnestic syndrome characterized by lack of other focal neurological deficits. Cerebrovascular disease, migraine and seizures have been suggested as underlying mechanisms. TGA may be a risk factor for cerebrovascular or other neurological events. We studied the relation of TGA, vascular risk factors, brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI indices of subclinical ischemia and neurological events in a community-based sample. Design/setting: A total of 12 TGA cases were ascertained using standard criteria by experienced neurologists, and matched to 41 stroke- and seizure-free controls. Vascular risk factors, brain MRI findings, and subsequent cerebrovascular or seizure events were compared in cases and controls. Participants: Framingham Heart Study (FHS original and offspring cohort participants were included.Results: No significant differences between the groups were observed in the prevalence of vascular risk factors, or brain MRI measures. Few incident stroke/transient ischemic attacks (TIA (1 event among the cases and 4 in controls or subsequent seizures occurred in either group. Head CT during the acute event (n=11 and brain MRI (n=7 were negative for acute abnormalities. Electroencephalograms (EEG (n=5 were negative for epileptiform activity. Extracranial vascular studies were negative for significant stenosis in all cases.Conclusions: In our community-based study TGA was not related to traditional vascular risk factors, or cerebrovascular disease. However, our study is limited by small sample size and power, and larger studies are required to exclude an association.

  15. 75 FR 54020 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-03

    ... loan-to-value (LTV) for borrowers with lower credit scores who represent a higher risk of default and.... The new LTV and credit score requirements will reduce the risk to the MMIF and ensure that home buyers..., specific to each applicant. Lower credit scores indicate greater risk of default on any new credit extended...

  16. Recurrent Stroke: The Value of the CHA2DS2VASc Score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score in a Nationwide Stroke Cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Søren Due; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Lip, Gregory Y H

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose—The CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score are respectively used for risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation and in patients with cerebrovascular incidents. We aimed to test the ability of the 2 scores to predict stroke recurrence, death......, and cardiovascular events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or arterial thromboembolism) in a nationwide Danish cohort study, among patients with incident ischemic stroke and no atrial fibrillation. Methods—We conducted a registry-based study in patients with incident ischemic stroke...... and no atrial fibrillation. Patients were stratified according to the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score and were followed up until stroke recurrence or death. We estimated stratified incidence rates and hazard ratios and calculated the cumulative risks. Results—42 182 patients with incident...

  17. Comparison of contemporary risk scores for predicting outcomes after surgery for active infective endocarditis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Oh, Timothy; Voss, Jamie; Gamble, Greg; Kang, Nicholas; Pemberton, James

    2015-03-01

    Decision making regarding surgery for acute bacterial endocarditis is complex given its heterogeneity and often fatal course. Few studies have investigated the utility of operative risk scores in this setting. Endocarditis-specific scores have recently been developed. We assessed the prognostic utility of contemporary risk scores for mortality and morbidity after endocarditis surgery. Additive and logistic EuroSCORE I, EuroSCORE II, additive Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Endocarditis Score and additive De Feo-Cotrufo Score were retrospectively calculated for patients undergoing surgery for endocarditis during 2005-2011. Pre-specified primary outcomes were operative mortality, composite morbidity and mortality during follow-up. A total of 146 patients were included with an operative mortality of 6.8 % followed for 4.1 ± 2.4 years. Mean scores were additive EuroSCORE I: 8.0 ± 2.5, logistic EuroSCORE I: 13.2 ± 10.1 %, EuroSCORE II: 9.1 % ± 9.4 %, STS Score: 32.2 ± 13.5 and De Feo-Cotrufo Score: 14.6 ± 9.2. Corresponding areas under curve (AUC) for operative mortality 0.653, 0.645, 0.656, 0.699 and 0.744; for composite morbidity were 0.623, 0.625, 0.720, 0.714 and 0.774; and long-term mortality 0.588, 0.579, 0.686, 0.735 and 0.751. The best tool for post-operative stroke was EuroSCORE II: AUC 0.837; for ventilation >24 h and return to theatre the De Feo-Cotrufo Scores were: AUC 0.821 and 0.712. Pre-operative inotrope or intra-aortic balloon pump treatment, previous coronary bypass grafting and dialysis were independent predictors of operative and long-term mortality. In conclusion, risk models developed specifically from endocarditis surgeries and incorporating endocarditis variables have improved prognostic ability of outcomes, and can play an important role in the decision making towards surgery for endocarditis.

  18. A Retrospective Analysis of Pressure Ulcer Incidence and Modified Braden Scale Score Risk Classifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hong-Lin; Cao, Ying-Juan; Wang, Jing; Huai, Bao-Sha

    2015-09-01

    The Braden Scale is the most widely used pressure ulcer risk assessment in the world, but the currently used 5 risk classification groups do not accurately discriminate among their risk categories. To optimize risk classification based on Braden Scale scores, a retrospective analysis of all consecutively admitted patients in an acute care facility who were at risk for pressure ulcer development was performed between January 2013 and December 2013. Predicted pressure ulcer incidence first was calculated by logistic regression model based on original Braden score. Risk classification then was modified based on the predicted pressure ulcer incidence and compared between different risk categories in the modified (3-group) classification and the traditional (5-group) classification using chi-square test. Two thousand, six hundred, twenty-five (2,625) patients (mean age 59.8 ± 16.5, range 1 month to 98 years, 1,601 of whom were men) were included in the study; 81 patients (3.1%) developed a pressure ulcer. The predicted pressure ulcer incidence ranged from 0.1% to 49.7%. When the predicted pressure ulcer incidence was greater than 10.0% (high risk), the corresponding Braden scores were less than 11; when the predicted incidence ranged from 1.0% to 10.0% (moderate risk), the corresponding Braden scores ranged from 12 to 16; and when the predicted incidence was less than 1.0% (mild risk), the corresponding Braden scores were greater than 17. In the modified classification, observed pressure ulcer incidence was significantly different between each of the 3 risk categories (P less than 0.05). However, in the traditional classification, the observed incidence was not significantly different between the high-risk category and moderate-risk category (P less than 0.05) and between the mild-risk category and no-risk category (P less than 0.05). If future studies confirm the validity of these findings, pressure ulcer prevention protocols of care based on Braden Scale scores can

  19. Correlation between the FINish diabetes risk score and the severity of coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đurić Predrag

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The FINish Diabetes RIsk SCore (FINDRISC which includes age, body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, physical (in activity, diet, arterial hypertension, history of high glucose levels, and family history of diabetes, is of a great significance in identifying patients with impaired glucose tolerance and a 10-year risk assessment of developing type 2 diabetes in adults. Due to the fact that the FINDRISC score includes parameters which are risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD, our aim was to determine a correlation between this score, and some of its parameters respectively, with the severity of angiographically verified CAD in patients with stable angina in two ways: according to the Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX score and the number of diseased coronary arteries. Methods. The study included 70 patients with stable angina consecutively admitted to the Clinic of Cardiology, Military Medical Academy, Belgrade. The FINDRISC score was calculated in all the patients immediately prior to angiography. Venous blood samples were collected and inflammatory markers [erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR, leucocytes, C-reactive protein (CRP, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides and fasting glucose] determined. Coronary angiography was performed in order to determine the severity of coronary artery disease according to the SYNTAX score and the number of affected coronary vessels: 1-vessel, 2-vessel or 3-vessel disease (hemodynamically significant stenoses: more than 70% of the blood vessel lumen. The patients were divided into three groups regarding the FINDRISC score: group I: 5-11 points; group II: 12-16 points; group III: 17-22 points. Results. Out of 70 patients (52 men and 18 women enrolled in this study, 14 had normal coronary angiogram. There was a statistically significant positive correlation between the FINDRISC score and its parameters respectively

  20. Metabolic syndrome risk score and time expended in moderate to vigorous physical activity in adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Stabelini Neto,Antonio; Campos,Wagner de; dos Santos, Géssika Castilho; Mazzardo Junior, Oldemar

    2014-01-01

    Background The clustering of metabolic syndrome risk factors is inversely related to the amount of physical activity. However, the question remains as to how much daily physical activity is enough to prevent the onset of metabolic disorders in adolescents? Therefore, the objectives of this study were to associate the metabolic risk score with the moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and to identify the amount of daily physical activity to prevent the onset of the metabolic risk facto...

  1. Comparison of mortality risk: a score for very low birthweight infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, R; Rey, M; Metze, B; Obladen;, M; TARNOW-MORDI, W.

    1997-01-01

    AIM—To develop and evaluate a score which quantifies mortality risk in very low birthweight (VLBW) infants (birthweight below 1500 g) at admission to the neonatal intensive care unit.
METHODS—Five hundred and seventy two VLBW infants admitted from 1978 to 1987 were randomly assigned to a cohort (n = 396) for score development and a cohort (n = 176) for score validation. Two hundred and ninety four VLBW infants admitted from 1988 to 1991 were used to compare risk adjusted mortality between the two eras.
RESULTS—Using multiple regression analysis, birthweight, Apgar score at 5 minutes, base excess at admission, severity of respiratory distress syndrome, and artificial ventilation were predictive of death in the development cohort. According to regression coefficients, a score ranging from 3 to 40 was developed. At a cutoff of 21, it predicted death in the validation cohort with a sensitivity of 0.85, a specificity of 0.73, and a correct classification rate of 0.76. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.86. There was no significant difference in risk severity and in risk adjusted mortality between the eras 1978-87 and 1988-91.
CONCLUSION—The present score is robust, easily obtainable at admission, and permits early randomisation based on mortality risk.

 Keywords: mortality risk; scoring system; very low birthweight PMID:9175942

  2. Risk stratification with the risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension compared with SCORE in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W;

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) and Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) are equally recommended tools for risk stratification. However, ESH risk chart recommends measuring subclinical organ damage, whereas...... SCORE is based on traditional risk factors. We wanted to compare the predictive performance of the two charts. METHODS: In a Danish population sample of 1344 individuals aged 41, 51, 61 and 71 years without known diabetes, prior stroke or myocardial infarction, not receiving cardiovascular, antidiabetic...... or lipid-lowering medications and with higher than optimal blood pressure (> or =120/80 mmHg), we measured traditional risk factors and subclinical organ damage. The endpoints were cardiovascular death and a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke (CEP). RESULTS: During...

  3. Dietary Approaches for Bone Health: Lessons from the Framingham Osteoporosis Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahni, Shivani; Mangano, Kelsey M; McLean, Robert R; Hannan, Marian T; Kiel, Douglas P

    2015-08-01

    Osteoporosis is characterized by systemic impairment of bone mass, strength, and microarchitecture, resulting in increased risk for fragility fracture, disability, loss of independence, and even death. Adequate nutrition is important in achieving and maintaining optimal bone mass, as well as preventing this debilitating disease. It is widely accepted that adequate calcium and vitamin D intake are necessary for good bone health; however, nutritional benefits to bone go beyond these two nutrients. This review article will provide updated information on all nutrients and foods now understood to alter bone health. Specifically, this paper will focus on related research from the Framingham Osteoporosis Study, an ancillary study of the Framingham Heart Study, with data on more than 5000 adult men and women.

  4. Ten-year absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures according to BMD T score at menopause

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Vestergaard, Peter; Rud, Bo;

    2006-01-01

    was 10.9% as opposed to an expected risk of 5.7%. Relative risk gradients were similar to those of the recent meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In healthy women, examined in the first year or two after menopause, 10-year fracture risk was higher at each level of BMD T score than expected from the model...... by Kanis et al. Inclusion of HRT users in the cohorts used may have led to higher BMD values and lower absolute fracture risk in the Kanis model. These longitudinal data can be used directly in estimating absolute fracture risk in untreated north European women from BMD at menopause....

  5. Ten-year absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures according to BMD T score at menopause

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Vestergaard, Peter; Rud, Bo

    2006-01-01

    was 10.9% as opposed to an expected risk of 5.7%. Relative risk gradients were similar to those of the recent meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In healthy women, examined in the first year or two after menopause, 10-year fracture risk was higher at each level of BMD T score than expected from the model...... by Kanis et al. Inclusion of HRT users in the cohorts used may have led to higher BMD values and lower absolute fracture risk in the Kanis model. These longitudinal data can be used directly in estimating absolute fracture risk in untreated north European women from BMD at menopause....

  6. Ethnic group differences in cardiovascular risk assessment scores: national cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Andrew R H; Bottle, Alex; Soljak, Michael; Majeed, Azeem; Millett, Christopher

    2014-08-01

    There are marked inequalities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and outcomes between ethnic groups. CVD risk scores are increasingly used in preventive medicine and should aim to accurately reflect differences between ethnic groups. Ethnicity, as an independent risk factor for CVD, can be accounted for in CVD risk scores primarily using two methods, either directly incorporating it as a risk factor in the algorithm or through a post hoc adjustment of risk. We aim to compare these two methods in terms of their prediction of CVD across ethnic groups using representative national data from England. A cross-sectional study using data from the Health Survey for England. We measured ethnic group differences in risk estimation between the QRISK2, which includes ethnicity and Joint British Societies 2 (JBS2) algorithm, which uses post hoc risk adjustment factor for South Asian men. The QRISK2 score produces lower median estimates of CVD risk than JBS2 overall (6.6% [lower quartile-upper quartile (LQ-UQ)=4.0-18.6] compared with 9.3% [LQ-UQ=2.3-16.9]). Differences in median risk scores are significantly greater in South Asian men (7.5% [LQ-UQ=3.6-12.5]) compared with White men (3.0% [LQ-UQ=0.7-5.9]). Using QRISK2, 19.1% [95% confidence interval (CI)=16.2-22.0] fewer South Asian men are designated at high risk compared with 8.8% (95% CI=5.9-7.8) fewer in White men. Across all ethnic groups, women had a lower median QRISK2 score (0.72 [LQ-UQ=- 0.6 to 2.13]), although relatively more (2.0% [95% CI=1.4-2.6]) were at high risk than with JBS2. Ethnicity is an important CVD risk factor. Current scoring tools used in the UK produce significantly different estimates of CVD risk within ethnic groups, particularly in South Asian men. Work to accurately estimate CVD risk in ethnic minority groups is important if CVD prevention programmes are to address health inequalities.

  7. New risk markers may change the HeartScore risk classification significantly in one-fifth of the population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, M H; Hansen, T W; Christensen, M K;

    2008-01-01

    The study aim was to determine whether urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP) added to risk prediction based on HeartScore and history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease. A Danish population sam......CRP in subjects with low-moderate risk and UACR and Nt-proBNP in subjects with known diabetes of cardiovascular disease changed HeartScore risk classification significantly in 19% of the population.......The study aim was to determine whether urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP) added to risk prediction based on HeartScore and history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease. A Danish population...... sample of 2460 individuals was divided in three groups: 472 subjects receiving cardiovascular medication or having history of diabetes, prior myocardial infarction or stroke, 559 high-risk subjects with a 10-year risk of cardiovascular death above 5% as estimated by HeartScore, and 1429 low-moderate risk...

  8. Unsupervised deep learning applied to breast density segmentation and mammographic risk scoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kallenberg, Michiel Gijsbertus J.; Petersen, Peter Kersten; Nielsen, Mads

    2016-01-01

    Mammographic risk scoring has commonly been automated by extracting a set of handcrafted features from mammograms, and relating the responses directly or indirectly to breast cancer risk. We present a method that learns a feature hierarchy from unlabeled data. When the learned features are used...... as the input to a simple classifier, two different tasks can be addressed: i) breast density segmentation, and ii) scoring of mammographic texture. The proposed model learns features at multiple scales. To control the models capacity a novel sparsity regularizer is introduced that incorporates both lifetime...... and population sparsity. We evaluated our method on three different clinical datasets. Our state-of-the-art results show that the learned breast density scores have a very strong positive relationship with manual ones, and that the learned texture scores are predictive of breast cancer. The model is easy...

  9. Early Cannabis Use, Polygenic Risk Score for Schizophrenia and Brain Maturation in Adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Leon; Gray, Courtney; Leonard, Gabriel; Perron, Michel; Pike, G Bruce; Richer, Louis; Séguin, Jean R; Veillette, Suzanne; Evans, C John; Artiges, Eric; Banaschewski, Tobias; Bokde, Arun W L; Bromberg, Uli; Bruehl, Ruediger; Buchel, Christian; Cattrell, Anna; Conrod, Patricia J; Flor, Herta; Frouin, Vincent; Gallinat, Jurgen; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Lemaitre, Herve; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Nees, Frauke; Orfanos, Dimitri Papadopoulos; Pangelinan, Melissa Marie; Poustka, Luise; Rietschel, Marcella; Smolka, Michael N; Walter, Henrik; Whelan, Robert; Timpson, Nic J; Schumann, Gunter; Smith, George Davey; Pausova, Zdenka; Paus, Tomáš

    2015-10-01

    Cannabis use during adolescence is known to increase the risk for schizophrenia in men. Sex differences in the dynamics of brain maturation during adolescence may be of particular importance with regard to vulnerability of the male brain to cannabis exposure. To evaluate whether the association between cannabis use and cortical maturation in adolescents is moderated by a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia. Observation of 3 population-based samples included initial analysis in 1024 adolescents of both sexes from the Canadian Saguenay Youth Study (SYS) and follow-up in 426 adolescents of both sexes from the IMAGEN Study from 8 European cities and 504 male youth from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) based in England. A total of 1577 participants (aged 12-21 years; 899 [57.0%] male) had (1) information about cannabis use; (2) imaging studies of the brain; and (3) a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia across 108 genetic loci identified by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Data analysis was performed from March 1 through December 31, 2014. Cortical thickness derived from T1-weighted magnetic resonance images. Linear regression tests were used to assess the relationships between cannabis use, cortical thickness, and risk score. Across the 3 samples of 1574 participants, a negative association was observed between cannabis use in early adolescence and cortical thickness in male participants with a high polygenic risk score. This observation was not the case for low-risk male participants or for the low- or high-risk female participants. Thus, in SYS male participants, cannabis use interacted with risk score vis-à-vis cortical thickness (P = .009); higher scores were associated with lower thickness only in males who used cannabis. Similarly, in the IMAGEN male participants, cannabis use interacted with increased risk score vis-à-vis a change in decreasing cortical thickness from 14.5 to 18.5 years of age (t137 = -2.36; P

  10. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. A Risk Score to Predict Hypertension in Primary Care Settings in Rural India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu; Kannan, Srinivasan; Sarma, P Sankara; Razum, Oliver; Thrift, Amanda Gay; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman

    2016-01-01

    We used the data of 297 participants (15-64 years old) from a cohort study (2003-2010) who were free from hypertension at baseline, to develop a risk score to predict hypertension by primary health care workers in rural India. Age ≥35 years, current smoking, prehypertension, and central obesity were significantly associated with incident hypertension. The optimal cutoff value of ≥3 had a sensitivity of 78.6%, specificity of 65.2%, positive predictive value of 41.1%, and negative predictive value of 90.8%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk score was 0.802 (95% confidence interval = 0.748-0.856). This simple and easy to administer risk score could be used to predict hypertension in primary care settings in rural India.

  12. Evaluation of a risk factor scoring model in screening for undiagnosed diabetes in China population

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jian-jun DONG; Neng-jun LOU; Jia-jun ZHAO; Zhong-wen ZHANG; Lu-lu QIU; Ying ZHOU; Lin LIAO

    2011-01-01

    Objective:To develop a risk scoring model for screening for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in Chinese population.Methods:A total of 5348 subjects from two districts of Jinan City,Shandong Province,China were enrolled.Group A (2985) included individuals from east of the city and Group B (2363) from west of the city.Screening questionnaires and a standard oral glucose tolerance test (OGTr) were completed by all subjects.Based on the stepwise logistic regression analysis of Group A,variables were selected to establish the risk scoring model.The validity and effectiveness of this model were evaluated in Group B.Results:Based on stepwise logistic regression analysis performed with data of Group A,variables including age,body mass index (BMI),waist-to-hip ratio (WHR),systolic pressure,diastolic pressure,heart rate,family history of diabetes,and history of high glucose were accepted into the risk scoring model.The risk for having diabetes increased along with aggregate scores.When Youden index was closest to 1,the optimal cutoff value was set up at 51.At this point,the diabetes risk scoring model could identify diabetes patients with a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 66.5%,making the positive predictive value 12.83%and negative predictive value 98.53%.We compared our model with the Finnish and Danish model and concluded that our model has superior validity in Chinese population.Conclusions:Our diabetes risk scoring model has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity for identifying undiagnosed diabetes in our population,which might be a simple and practical tool suitable for massive diabetes screening.

  13. Evaluation of the relative risk of stroke in patients with hypertension using cerebrovascular hemodynamic accumulative score

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Jiuyi; WANG Guiqing; GUO Jiping; CAO Yifeng; WANG Yan; YANG Yongju; YU Xuehai

    2007-01-01

    The relative risk(RR)of stroke in patients with hypertension was evaluated by using synthetic index of cerebrovascular hemodynamics.A total of 7,371 patients with hypertension with ages≥40 years were selected from a population-based cohort study of the risk factors for stroke.The data on the baseline investigation of risk factors,the determination of cerebrovascular hemodynamic parameters (CVHP),and stroke follow-up were analyzed.The RR of stroke in patients with hypertension was evaluated by CVHP scores.Univariate analysis indicated that hypertension,complicated by other risk factors,had significant statistical association with the onset of stroke.RRS for stroke when hypertension complicated with decrease of hemodynamic scores,heart disease,cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption were 4.93(95%CI,3.26-7.45),1.90(95%CI,1.36-2.66),1.99(95%CI,1.42-2.79)and 1.73(95%CI,1.19-2.53)respectively.In multivariate analysis,hemodynamic score,age,sex,cigarette smoking,family history of stroke and systolic blood pressure were selected by the Cox regression for inclusion in the final analysis.Among them,the RR of hemodynamic score was highest.The analysis of doseresponse relationships indicated that when the hemodynamic scores in patients with hypertension were lower than 75 points,the RR of stroke at 75,60,45,30 and 15 points were 2.85,4.43,4.54,5.40 and 9.88,respectively.The risk of stroke in patients with hypertension is closely associated with hemodynamic impairment and the hemodynamic score may be used for quantitative evaluation of relative risks of stroke.

  14. Risk Score Model for Predicting Sonographic Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Children and Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parinaz Poursafa

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study aimed to develop and test the validity of a risk score to be used as a simple tool to identify those children at high risk of sonographic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD. Methods:This cross-sectional study was conducted among 962 participants aged 6-18 years in Isfahan, Iran. They consisted of three groups of nearly equal number of normal-weight, overweight and obese individuals. Coefficients of the logistic regression models were used to assign a score value for each variable and the composite sonographic NAFLD risk score was calculated as the sum of those scores. Performance of model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve procedure. Findings:Data of 931 participants was included in the analysis. The sonographic findings of 16.8% of participants were compatible with NAFLD. Age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference and serum triglycerides level were diagnosed as factors associated with NAFLD. The risk score was calculated as 50 for sonographic NAFLD. Conclusion:This study, to the best of our knowledge is the first of its kind in the pediatric age group, focuses on predicting sonographic NAFLD from easily-measured factors. It may suggest an association of hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype with NAFLD in the pediatric age group.

  15. Importance of time in therapeutic range on bleeding risk prediction using clinical risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Roldán, Vanessa; Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción; Valdés, Mariano; Vicente, Vicente; Lip, Gregory Y H; Marín, Francisco

    2017-09-21

    Bleeding risk with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) is closely related to the quality of anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, reflected by time in therapeutic range (TTR). Here we compared the discrimination performance of different bleeding risk scores and investigated if adding TTR would improve their predictive value and clinical usefulness. We included 1361 AF patients stables on VKA for at least 6 months. Bleeding risk was assessed by the HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR2HAGES scores. Major bleeding events were recorded after a median of 6.5 years follow-up. In this period 250 patients suffered major bleeds. Comparison of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrated that HAS-BLED had the best discrimination performance, but adding the 'labile INR' criteria (i.e. TTR <65%) to ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR2HAGES increased their ability of discrimination and predictive value, with significant improvements in reclassification and discriminatory performance. Decision curve analyses (DCA) showed improvements of the clinical usefulness and a net benefit of the modified risk scores. In summary, in AF patients taking VKAs, the HAS-BLED score had the best predictive ability. Adding 'labile INR' to ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR2HAGES improved their predictive value for major bleeding leading to improved clinical usefulness compared to the original scores.

  16. The development of a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscila Costa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to develop a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns.METHOD: prospective cohort study conducted in a neonatal intensive care unit with newborn babies who underwent 524 catheter insertions. The clinical characteristics of the newborn, catheter insertion and intravenous therapy were tested as risk factors for the unplanned removal of catheters using bivariate analysis. The risk score was developed using logistic regression. Accuracy was internally validated based on the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.RESULTS: the risk score was made up of the following risk factors: transient metabolic disorders; previous insertion of catheter; use of a polyurethane double-lumen catheter; infusion of multiple intravenous solutions through a single-lumen catheter; and tip in a noncentral position. Newborns were classified into three categories of risk of unplanned removal: low (0 to 3 points, moderate (4 to 8 points, and high (≥ 9 points. Accuracy was 0.76.CONCLUSION: the adoption of evidence-based preventative strategies based on the classification and risk factors faced by the newborn is recommended to minimize the occurrence of unplanned removals.

  17. Risk Factors and Scoring Systems for Patients with Candidemia at a Tertiary Hospital in Jakarta, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mursinah, Mursinah; Ibrahim, Fera; Wahid, Mardiastuti H

    2016-07-01

    to identify the risk factors of candidemia and to develop a scoring system that could be implemented in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital (RSCM), Jakarta, Indonesia. this study was a retrospective study with case control design using the medical records of patients since 2011 to 2014. All sepsis patients hospitalized in the RSCM with a positive blood culture for Candida were included in this study as a case group. The control group was all of the sepsis patients without candidemia. The ratio for case and control groups was equal (1:1). from 234 patients who were analyzed, the risk factors that influenced the study were length of stay of 8-14 days (OR 3.464; 95% CI 1.458-7.800), length of stay of more than 14 days (OR 6.844; 95% CI 3.0-15.330), severe sepsis (OR 16.407; 95% CI 1.458-7.800), and surgery (OR 3.03; 95% CI 1.492-6.152). The predictors for candidemia in RSCM were length of stay in hospital for 8-14 days (score 1), a length of stay ≥14 days (score 2), severe sepsis (score 3), and surgery (score 1), with a cut off score of 3.5. the results of this study have indicated that a scoring system in order to guide an empirical treatment for candidemia can be developed by using the risk factors for candidemia from patients who have been identified as patients with risk at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital.

  18. A modified risk assessment scoring system for post laser in situ keratomileusis ectasia in topographically normal patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Miraftab

    2014-01-01

    Conclusion: Our modified ectasia risk scoring system for patients with normal corneal topography can predict post LASIK ectasia risk with acceptable sensitivity and specificity. However, there are still unidentified risk factors for which further studies are required.

  19. Assessment of the EuroSCORE risk scoring system for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in a group of Iranian patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamidreza Jamaati

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Previous studies around the world indicated validity and accuracy of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE risk scoring system we evaluated the EuroSCORE risk scoring system for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG surgery in a group of Iranian patients. Materials and Methods: In this cohort 2220 patients more than 18 years, who were performed CABG surgery in Massih Daneshvari Hospital, from January 2004 to March 2010 were recruited. Predicted mortality risk scores were calculated using logistic EuroSCORE and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II and compared with observed mortality. Calibration was measured by the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL test and discrimination by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve area. Results: Of the 2220 patients, in hospital deaths occurred in 270 patients (mortality rate of 12.2%. The accuracy of mortality prediction in the logistic EuroSCORE and APACHE II model was 89.1%; in the local EuroSCORE (logistic was 91.89%; and in the local EuroSCORE support vector machines (SVM was 98.6%. The area under curve for ROC curve, was 0.724 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57-0.88 for logistic EuroSCORE; 0.836 (95% CI: 0.731-0.942 for local EuroSCORE (logistic; 0.978 (95% CI: 0.937-1 for Local EuroSCORE (SVM; and 0.832 (95% CI: 0.723-0.941 for APACHE II model. The HL test showed good calibration for the local EuroSCORE (SVM, APACHE II model and local EuroSCORE (logistic (P = 0.823, P = 0.748 and P = 0.06 respectively; but there was a significant difference between expected and observed mortality according to EuroSCORE model (P = 0.033. Conclusion: We detected logistic EuroSCORE risk model is not applicable on Iranian patients undergoing CABG surgery.

  20. Risk of Asthma in Late Preterm Infants: A Propensity Score Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voge, Gretchen A; Katusic, Slavica K; Qin, Rui; Juhn, Young J

    2015-01-01

    Background The risk of asthma, specifically in former late preterm infants, has not been well defined. Covariate imbalance and lack of controlling for this has led to inconsistent results in prior studies. Objective Determine the risk of asthma in former late preterm infants using a propensity score approach. Methods The study was a population-based birth cohort study. Study subjects were all children born in Rochester, Minnesota, between 1976 and 1982. Asthma status during the first seven years of life was assessed by applying predetermined criteria. The propensity score was formulated using 15 covariates by fitting a logistic regression model for late preterm birth versus term birth. We applied the propensity score method to match late preterm infants (34 0/7 to 36 6/7 weeks gestation) to term infants (37 0/7 to 40 6/7 weeks gestation) within a caliper of 0.2 standard deviation of logit of propensity score. Results Of the eligible 7,040 infants, 5,915 children had complete data. Before propensity score matching, late preterm infants had a higher risk of asthma (20 of 262, 7.6%) compared to full-term infants (272 of 5,653, 4.8%)(p=0.039). There was significant covariate imbalance between comparison groups. After matching with propensity scores, we found that former late preterm infants had a similar risk of asthma to the matched full-term infants (6.6% vs. 7.7%, respectively, p=0.61), and the result were consistent with covariate-adjustment, Cox regression models controlling for significant covariates (p=0.57). Conclusion A late preterm birth history is not independently associated with childhood asthma, as the reported risk of asthma among former late preterm infants appears to be due to covariate imbalance. PMID:25944734

  1. A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ueda, Peter; Lu, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Treatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on disease risk depends on valid risk prediction equations. We aimed to develop, and apply in example countries, a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease (consisting here of coronary heart disease and stroke) that can be reca...

  2. A clinically useful risk-score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens; Ross, Michael;

    2014-01-01

    baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 nadir, hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease predicted CKD and were included in the risk score (Figure 1). The incidence of CKD in those at low, medium and high risk was 0.8/1000 PYFU (95% CI 0.6-1.0), 5.6 (95% CI 4.5-6.7) and 37.4 (95% CI 34.......0-40.7) (Figure 1). The risk score showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistic 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.93). The number needed to harm (NNTH) in patients starting ATV or LPV/r was 1395, 142 or 20, respectively, among those with low, medium or high risk. NNTH were 603, 61 and 9 for those with a low, medium...

  3. The Application of Genetic Risk Scores in Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica N. Cooke Bailey

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Age-related macular degeneration (AMD, a highly prevalent and impactful disease of aging, is inarguably influenced by complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors. Various risk scores have been tested that assess measurable genetic and environmental contributions to disease. We herein summarize and review the ability and utility of these numerous models for prediction of AMD and suggest additional risk factors to be incorporated into clinically useful predictive models of AMD.

  4. An Asian validation of the TIMI risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharmini Selvarajah

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Risk stratification in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI is important, such that the most resource intensive strategy is used to achieve the greatest clinical benefit. This is essential in developing countries with wide variation in health care facilities, scarce resources and increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases. This study sought to validate the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI risk score for STEMI in a multi-ethnic developing country. METHODS: Data from a national, prospective, observational registry of acute coronary syndromes was used. The TIMI risk score was evaluated in 4701 patients who presented with STEMI. Model discrimination and calibration was tested in the overall population and in subgroups of patients that were at higher risk of mortality; i.e., diabetics and those with renal impairment. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI population, this study population was younger, had more chronic conditions, more severe index events and received treatment later. The TIMI risk score was strongly associated with 30-day mortality. Discrimination was good for the overall study population (c statistic 0.785 and in the high risk subgroups; diabetics (c statistic 0.764 and renal impairment (c statistic 0.761. Calibration was good for the overall study population and diabetics, with χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.936 and 0.983 respectively, but poor for those with renal impairment, χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.006. CONCLUSIONS: The TIMI risk score is valid and can be used for risk stratification of STEMI patients for better targeted treatment.

  5. Obstetrical complications and Apgar score in subjects at risk of psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotlicka-Antczak, Magdalena; Pawełczyk, Agnieszka; Rabe-Jabłońska, Jolanta; Smigielski, Janusz; Pawełczyk, Tomasz

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the study was to identify associations between a history of obstetrical complications (OCs) and the future development of symptoms indicating risk of psychosis (At Risk Mental State - ARMS). The frequency of OCs was assessed in 66 ARMS subjects, 50 subjects with the first episode of schizophrenia (FES) and 50 healthy controls. Obstetrical data was obtained from medical documentation and evaluated with the Lewis and Murray Scale. Definite OCs, according to the Lewis and Murray Scale, occurred significantly more frequently in the ARMS group compared to the controls (χ(2) = 7.79, p = 0.005; OR = 4.20, 95% CI = 1.46-12.11), as well as in the FES subjects compared to the controls (χ(2) = 8.39, p = 0.004; OR = 4.64, 95% CI = 1.56-13.20). Apgar scores in the first (Apgar 1) and the fifth minute after birth (Apgar 5) were significantly lower in the FES subjects compared to the controls (for Apgar 1 score Z = 4.439, p Apgar 5 score Z = 5.250, p Apgar 5 scores compared to the healthy controls (Z = 3.458, p = 0.0016). The results indicate that OCs and low Apgar 5 score should be considered important factors in identifying subjects at risk of developing psychosis.

  6. An Inflammatory Polymorphisms Risk Scoring System for the Differentiation of Ischemic Stroke Subtypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Muiño

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Inflammation has been associated with atherothrombotic stroke and recently with cardioembolic stroke. Different genetic risk factors have been specifically associated with the subtypes of ischemic stroke (cardioembolic, atherothrombotic, and lacunar. However, there are no studies that have generated genetic risk scores for the different subtypes of ischemic stroke using polymorphisms associated with inflammation. Methods. We have analyzed 68 polymorphisms of 30 inflammatory mediator genes in 2,685 subjects: 1,987 stroke cases and 698 controls. We generated a genetic scoring system with the most significant polymorphisms weighted by the odds ratio of every polymorphism and taken into consideration the stroke subtype. Results. Three polymorphisms, rs1205 (CRP gene, rs1800779, and rs2257073 (NOS3 gene, were associated with cardioembolic stroke (p value <0.05. The score generated was only associated with the cardioembolic stroke subtype (p value: 0.001 and was replicated in an independent cohort (p value: 0.017. The subjects with the highest score presented a cardioembolic stroke in 92.2% of the cases (p value: 0.002. Conclusion. The genetics of inflammatory markers is more closely associated with cardioembolic strokes than with atherothrombotic or lacunar strokes. The genetic risk scoring system could be useful in the prediction and differentiation of ischemic stroke; however, it might be specific to particular ischemic stroke subtypes.

  7. Development of a Simple Clinical Risk Score for Early Prediction of Severe Dengue in Adult Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ing-Kit Lee

    Full Text Available We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to aid in the early identification of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients at high risk of severe dengue (SD (i.e. severe plasma leakage with shock or respiratory distress, or severe bleeding or organ impairment. We retrospectively analyzed data of 1184 non-SD patients at hospital presentation and 69 SD patients before SD onset. We fit a logistic regression model using 85% of the population and converted the model coefficients to a numeric risk score. Subsequently, we validated the score using the remaining 15% of patients. Using the derivation cohort, two scoring algorithms for predicting SD were developed: models 1 (dengue illness ≤4 days and 2 (dengue illness >4 days. In model 1, we identified four variables: age ≥65 years, minor gastrointestinal bleeding, leukocytosis, and platelet count ≥100×109 cells/L. Model 1 (ranging from -2 to +6 points showed good discrimination between SD and non-SD, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.848 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.771-0.924. The optimal cutoff value for model 1 was 1 point, with a sensitivity and specificity for predicting SD of 70.3% and 90.6%, respectively. In model 2 (ranging from 0 to +3 points, significant predictors were age ≥65 years and leukocytosis. Model 2 showed an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.756-0.963, with an optimal cutoff value of 1 point (sensitivity, 80.3%; specificity, 85.8%. The median interval from hospital presentation to SD was 1 day. This finding underscores the importance of close monitoring, timely resuscitation of shock including intravenous fluid adjustment and early correction of dengue-related complications to prevent the progressive dengue severity. In the validation data, AUCs of 0.904 (95% CI, 0.825-0.983 and 0.917 (95% CI, 0.833-1.0 in models 1 and 2, respectively, were achieved. The observed SD rates (in both cohorts were 50% for those with a score of ≥2 points

  8. Risk scoring systems for adults admitted to the emergency department: a systematic review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, Mikkel; Folkestad, Lars; Clausen, Nicola G

    2010-01-01

    , on scoring systems developed to assess medical patients at admission. The primary endpoints were in-hospital mortality or transfer to the intensive care unit. Studies derived for only a single or few diagnoses were excluded. The ability to identify patients at risk (discriminatory power) and agreement......ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Patients referred to a medical admission unit (MAU) represent a broad spectrum of disease severity. In the interest of allocating resources to those who might potentially benefit most from clinical interventions, several scoring systems have been proposed as a triaging tool...... are perfect and all have their weaknesses. More research is needed before the use of scoring systems can be fully implemented to the risk assessment of acutely admitted medical patients....

  9. Autism risk assessment in siblings of affected children using sex-specific genetic scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carayol Jerome

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The inheritance pattern in most cases of autism is complex. The risk of autism is increased in siblings of children with autism and previous studies have indicated that the level of risk can be further identified by the accumulation of multiple susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs allowing for the identification of a higher-risk subgroup among siblings. As a result of the sex difference in the prevalence of autism, we explored the potential for identifying sex-specific autism susceptibility SNPs in siblings of children with autism and the ability to develop a sex-specific risk assessment genetic scoring system. Methods SNPs were chosen from genes known to be associated with autism. These markers were evaluated using an exploratory sample of 480 families from the Autism Genetic Resource Exchange (AGRE repository. A reproducibility index (RI was proposed and calculated in all children with autism and in males and females separately. Differing genetic scoring models were then constructed to develop a sex-specific genetic score model designed to identify individuals with a higher risk of autism. The ability of the genetic scores to identify high-risk children was then evaluated and replicated in an independent sample of 351 affected and 90 unaffected siblings from families with at least 1 child with autism. Results We identified three risk SNPs that had a high RI in males, two SNPs with a high RI in females, and three SNPs with a high RI in both sexes. Using these results, genetic scoring models for males and females were developed which demonstrated a significant association with autism (P = 2.2 × 10-6 and 1.9 × 10-5, respectively. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that individual susceptibility associated SNPs for autism may have important differential sex effects. We also show that a sex-specific risk score based on the presence of multiple susceptibility associated SNPs allow for the identification of

  10. Integrative prognostic risk score in acute myeloid leukemia with normal karyotype

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Damm (Frederik); M. Heuser (Michael); H.M. Morgan (Helen); K. Wagner (Katharina); K. Görlich (Kerstin); A. Großhennig (Anika); I. Hamwi (Iyas); F. Thol (Felicitas); E. Surdziel (Ewa); W. Fiedler (Walter); M. Lübbert (Michael); L. Kanz (Lothar); C. Reuter (Christoph); G. Heil (Gerhard); H.R. Delwel (Ruud); B. Löwenberg (Bob); P.J.M. Valk (Peter); J. Krauter; A. Ganser (Arnold)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractTo integrate available clinical and molecular information for cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia (CN-AML) patients into one risk score, 275 CN-AML patients from multicenter treatment trials AML SHG Hannover 0199 and 0295 and 131 patients from HOVON/SAKK protocols as external c

  11. Prostate cancer staging with extracapsular extension risk scoring using multiparametric MRI: a correlation with histopathology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boesen, Lars; Mikines, Kari [Herlev University Hospital, Department of Urology, Herlev (Denmark); Chabanova, Elizaveta; Loegager, Vibeke; Thomsen, Henrik S. [Herlev University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Herlev (Denmark); Balslev, Ingegerd [Herlev University Hospital, Department of Pathology, Herlev (Denmark)

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate the diagnostic performance of preoperative multiparametric MRI with extracapsular extension (ECE) risk-scoring in the assessment of prostate cancer tumour stage (T-stage) and prediction of ECE at final pathology. Eighty-seven patients with clinically localised prostate cancer scheduled for radical prostatectomy were prospectively enrolled. Multiparametric MRI was performed prior to prostatectomy, and evaluated according to the ESUR MR prostate guidelines by two different readers. An MRI clinical T-stage (cT{sub MRI}), an ECE risk score, and suspicion of ECE based on tumour characteristics and personal opinion were assigned. Histopathological prostatectomy results were standard reference. Histopathology and cT{sub MRI} showed a spearman rho correlation of 0.658 (p < 0.001) and a weighted kappa = 0.585 [CI 0.44;0.73](reader A). ECE was present in 31/87 (36 %) patients. ECE risk-scoring showed an AUC of 0.65-0.86 on ROC-curve for both readers, with sensitivity and specificity of 81 % and 78 % at best cutoff level (reader A), respectively. When tumour characteristics were influenced by personal opinion, the sensitivity and specificity for prediction of ECE changed to 61 %-74 % and 77 %-88 % for the readers, respectively. Multiparametric MRI with ECE risk-scoring is an accurate diagnostic technique in determining prostate cancer clinical tumour stage and ECE at final pathology. (orig.)

  12. Diet Quality Scores and Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Chinese Adults: A Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Cheng; Lin, Xiao-Ling; Fan, Yu-Ying; Liu, Yuan-Ting; Zhang, Xing-Lan; Lu, Yun-Kai; Xu, Chun-Hua; Chen, Yu-Ming

    2016-02-25

    Many studies show that dietary factors may affect the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We examined the association between overall diet quality and NPC risk in a Chinese population. This case-control study included 600 NPC patients and 600 matched controls between 2009 and 2011 in Guangzhou, China. Habitual dietary intake and various covariates were assessed via face-to-face interviews. Diet quality scores were calculated according to the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005), the alternate Healthy Eating Index (aHEI), the Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I), and the alternate Mediterranean Diet Score (aMed). After adjustment for various lifestyle and dietary factors, greater diet quality scores on the HEI-2005, aHEI, and DQI-I-but not on the aMed-showed a significant association with a lower risk of NPC (p-trends, <0.001-0.001). The odds ratios (95% confidence interval) comparing the extreme quartiles of the three significant scores were 0.47 (0.32-0.68) (HEI-2005), 0.48 (0.33-0.70) (aHEI), and 0.43 (0.30-0.62) (DQI-I). In gender-stratified analyses, the favorable association remained significant in men but not in women. We found that adherence to the predefined dietary patterns represented by the HEI-2005, aHEI, and DQI-I scales predicted a lower risk of NPC in adults from south China, especially in men.

  13. Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Szulkin, Robert; Whitington, Thomas; Eklund, Martin

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate ca...

  14. Genetic risk scores and number of autoantibodies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maehlen, Marthe T.; Olsen, Inge C.; Andreassen, Bettina K.; Viken, Marte K.; Jiang, Xia; Alfredsson, Lars; Kallberg, Henrik; Brynedal, Boel; Kurreeman, Fina; Daha, Nina; Toes, Rene; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; de Bakker, Paul I. W.; Martin, Javier; Teruel, Maria; Gonzalez-Gay, Miguel A.; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Luis; Balsa, Alejandro; Uhlig, Till; Kvien, Tore K.; Lie, Benedicte A.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Certain HLA-DRB1 alleles and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our objective was to examine the combined effect of these associated variants, calculated as a cumulative genetic risk score (GRS) on RA predisposition, as well as the number

  15. Impact of malnutrition on pediatric risk of mortality score and outcome in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: This study was done to determine the effect of malnutrition on mortality in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) and on the pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) scoring. Subjects and Methods: This was a prospective study done over 1 year. There were total 400 patients (1 month 14 years), who were divided into cases with weight for age

  16. A clinical and echocardiographic score for assigning risk of major events after dobutamine echocardiograms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Marwick (Thomas); L. Case (Laura); D. Poldermans (Don); H. Boersma (Eric); J.J. Bax (Jeroen); T. Sawada (Takahiro); J.D. Thomas (James)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractObjectives We sought to develop and validate a risk score combining both clinical and dobutamine echocardiographic (DbE) features in 4,890 patients who underwent DbE at three expert laboratories and were followed for death or myocardial infarction for up to five years. Background In cont

  17. Calcium scores in the risk assessment of an asymptomatic population: implications for airline pilots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirawan, I Made Ady; Wu, Rodney; Abernethy, Malcolm; Aldington, Sarah; Larsen, Peter D

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluated whether coronary artery calcium score (CACS) improved cardiovascular disease risk prediction when compared to the New Zealand Cardiovascular Risk Charts (NZ-CRC), and describes the potential utilization of CACS in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment of pilots. A cross-sectional study was performed among asymptomatic patients who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography at Pacific Radiology Wellington, New Zealand, between August 2007 and July 2012 and had their CACS and CVD risk score calculated. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were used to measure the accuracy of the NZ-CRC and CACS. Reclassification analyses were performed to examine the net reclassification improvement (NRI) of CACS when compared to NZ-CRC. Over a 5-yr study period, 237 male asymptomatic patients with ages ranging from 30 to 69 yr with a mean (SD) of 53.24 (8.18) yr, were included. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) (95% CI) for CACS and NZ-CRC were 0.88 (0.83-0.93) and 0.66 (0.59-0.73), respectively. The NRI (95% CI) of the calcium scores was 0.39 (0.17-0.62). CACS should be assessed in pilots with 5-yr CVD risk scores of 5-10% and 10-15%. CACS has a better accuracy than the NZ-CRC and reclassified a considerable proportion of asymptomatic patients into correct cardiovascular risk categories. An approach on how the CACS should be employed in the cardiovascular risk assessment of airline pilots is noted in this paper.

  18. Assessing the Caprini Score for Risk Assessment of Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Medical Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopra, Vineet; Bernstein, Steven J.; Hofer, Timothy P.; Flanders, Scott A.

    2017-01-01

    Background The optimal approach to assess risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized medical patients is unknown. We examined how well the Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) predicts VTE in hospitalized medical patients. Methods Between January 2011 and March 2014, VTE events and risk factors were collected from non-intensive care unit (ICU) medical patients hospitalized in facilities across Michigan. Following calculation of the Caprini score for each patient, mixed logistic spline regression was used to determine the predicted probabilities of 90-day VTE by receipt of pharmacologic prophylaxis across the Caprini risk continuum. Results A total of 670 (1.05%) of 63,548 eligible patients experienced a VTE event within 90 days of hospital admission. The mean Caprini risk score was 4.94 (range 0 - 28). Predictive modeling revealed a consistent linear increase in VTE for Caprini scores between 1-10; estimates beyond a score of 10 were unstable. Receipt of pharmacologic prophylaxis resulted in a modest decrease in VTE risk (odds ratio=0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.72 - 0.99, p = 0.04). However, the low overall incidence of VTE led to large estimates of numbers needed to treat in order to prevent a single VTE event. A Caprini cut-point demonstrating clear benefit of prophylaxis was not detected. Conclusions Although a linear association between the Caprini RAM and risk of VTE was noted, an extremely low incidence of VTE events in non-ICU medical patients was observed. The Caprini RAM was unable to identify a subset of medical patients who benefit from pharmacologic prophylaxis. PMID:26551977

  19. Development and validation of a postpartum depression risk score in delivered women, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad R Maracy

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Investigators describe a dramatic increase in the incidence of mood disorder after childbirth, with the largest risk in the 90 days after delivery. This study is designed to develop a relatively simple screening tool and validate it from the significant variables associated with postpartum depression (PPD to detect delivered women at high risk of having PPD. Materials and Methods: In the cross-sectional study, 6,627 from a total of 7,300 delivered women, 2-12 months after delivery were recruited and screened for PPD. Split-half validation was used to develop the risk score. The training data set was used to develop the model, and the validation data set was used to validate the developed the risk factors of postpartum depression risk score using multiple logistic regression analysis to compute the β coefficients and odds ratio (OR for the dependent variables associated with possible PPD in this study. Calibration was checked using the Hosmer and Lemeshow test. A score for independent variables contributing to PPD was calculated. Cutoff points using a trade-off between the sensitivity and specificity of risk scores derived from PPD model using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve. Results: The predicted and observed PPD were not different (P value = 0.885. The aROC with area under the curve (S.E. of 0.611 (0.008 for predicting PPD using the suggested cut-off point of -0.702, the proportion of participants screening positive for PPD was 70.9% (sensitivity (CI 95%; 69.5, 72.3 while the proportion screening negative was 60.1% (specificity (CI 95%; 58.2, 62.1. Conclusion: Despite of the relatively low sensitivity and specificity in this study, it could be a simple, practical and useful screening tool to identify individual at high risk for PPD in the target population.

  20. Design of a score to identify hospitalized patients at risk of drug-related problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbina, Olatz; Ferrández, Olivia; Grau, Santiago; Luque, Sonia; Mojal, Sergi; Marin-Casino, Monica; Mateu-de-Antonio, Javier; Carmona, Alexia; Conde-Estévez, David; Espona, Merce; González, Elena; Riu, Marta; Salas, Esther

    2014-09-01

    The potential impact of drug-related problems (DRP) on morbidity and mortality is a serious concern in hospitalized patients. This study aimed to design a risk score to identify patients most at risk of a DRP. Data from patients admitted to a tertiary university hospital between January and August 2009 were used to design the risk score (training set). DRP were detected through a pharmacy warning system integrated in the computerized medical history. The variables associated with developing a DRP were identified through a binary multivariate logistic regression analysis and were used to compute the DRP risk score, which was subsequently validated in patients admitted between September and December 2009 (validation set). Of the 8713 patients included in the training set, at least one DRP was detected in 2425 (27.8%). Prescription of a higher number of drugs, higher comorbidity, advanced age, certain groups of the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification system, and some major diagnostic categories were associated with risk of DRP. These variables were used to compute the DRP risk score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.778 (95%CI [0.768, 0.789]). Of the 4058 admissions included in the validation set, at least one DRP was detected in 876 (21.6%). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.776 (95%CI [0.759, 0.792]). Knowledge of the variables associated with DRP could aid their early detection in at-risk patients. The use of an application that can be continually updated in daily clinical practice helps to optimize resources. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Application of a score system to evaluate the risk of malnutrition in a multiple hospital setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background An increased but unpredictable risk of malnutrition is associated with hospitalization, especially in children with chronic diseases. We investigated the applicability of Screening Tool for Risk of Impaired Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids), an instrument proposed to estimate the risk of malnutrition in hospitalized children. We also evaluated the role of age and co-morbidities as risk for malnutrition. Methods The STRONGkids consists of 4 items providing a score that classifies a patient in low, moderate, high risk for malnutrition. A prospective observational multi-centre study was performed in 12 Italian hospitals. Children 1–18 years consecutively admitted and otherwise unselected were enrolled. Their STRONGkids score was obtained and compared with the actual nutritional status expressed as BMI and Height for Age SD-score. Results Of 144 children (75 males, mean age 6.5 ± 4.5 years), 52 (36%) had an underlying chronic disease. According to STRONGkids, 46 (32%) children were at low risk, 76 (53%) at moderate risk and 22 (15%) at high risk for malnutrition. The latter had significantly lower Height for Age values (mean SD value -1.07 ± 2.08; p = 0.008) and BMI values (mean SD-values -0.79 ± 2.09; p = 0.0021) in comparison to other groups. However, only 29 children were actually malnourished. Conclusions The STRONGkids is easy to administer. It is highly sensitive but not specific. It may be used as a very preliminary screening tool to be integrated with other clinical data in order to reliably predict the risk of malnutrition. PMID:24373709

  2. Walk score and risk of stroke and stroke subtypes among town residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qureshi, Adnan I; Adil, Malik M; Miller, Zachariah; Suri, Mariam; Rahim, Basit; Gilani, Sarwat I; Gilani, Waqas I

    2014-09-01

    Regular physical activity, including light-to-moderate activity, such as walking, has well-established benefits for reducing the risk of ischemic stroke. It remains unknown, however, whether the characteristics of cities themselves can influence the risk of stroke by promoting such activity. We tested the hypothesis that how walkable a city will be associated with the risk of ischemic stroke in persons residing in that city. We calculated the age-adjusted annual incidence rates of ischemic stroke among residents in each of the 63 cities in Minnesota for which Walk Scores were available using 2011 Minnesota Hospital Association (MHA) data. Walk Score®, an online service, uses an exclusive algorithm to compute a walkability score between 0 and 100 for any location within the United States. The score is calculated based on the distance to amenities in nine categories (grocery, restaurants, shopping, coffee, banks, parks, schools, books, and entertainment) weighed according to their importance. There are 2,910,435 persons residing in the 63 Minnesota cities in our data (average population per town is 46,197). The average Walk Score of the 63 towns in Minnesota was 34, ranging from 14 to 69. The average median age of residents was similar in tertiles of towns based on Walk Score as follows: ≤25 (n=9) 36 years; 26-50 (n=46) 37 years; and 51-100 (n=8) 35 years. The age-adjusted incidence of ischemic stroke was similar in tertiles of towns based on Walk Score as follows: ≤25 (n=9) 341 per 100,000; 26-50 (n=46) 308 per 100,000; and 51-100 (n=8) 330 per 100,000 residents. The correlation between age-adjusted ischemic stroke incidence and Walk Score was low (R (2)=0.09) within Minnesota. The ready availability of indices such as Walk Score make them attractive options for ischemic stroke risk correlation. Despite the lack of relationship in our study, further studies are required to measure the magnitude and health benefits of light-to-moderate activities performed

  3. Application of cardiovascular disease risk prediction models and the relevance of novel biomarkers to risk stratification in Asian Indians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Kanjilal

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available S Kanjilal1, VS Rao1, M Mukherjee1, BK Natesha1, KS Renuka1, K Sibi1, SS Iyengar1, Vijay V Kakkar1,21Tata Proteomics and Coagulation Department, Thrombosis Research Institute, Bangalore, Narayana Hrudayalaya Hospital, Bangalore, Karnataka, India; 2Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UKAbstract: The increasing pressure on health resources has led to the emergence of risk assessment as an essential tool in the management of cardiovascular disease (CVD. Concern exists regarding the validity of their generalization to all populations. Existing risk scoring models do not incorporate emerging ‘novel’ risk factors. In this context, the aim of the study was to examine the relevance of British, European, and Framingham predictive CVD risk scores to the asymptomatic high risk Indian population. Blood samples drawn from the participants were analyzed for various ‘traditional’ and ‘novel’ biomarkers, and their CVD risk factor profiling was also done. The Framingham model defined only 5% of the study cohort to be at high risk, which appears to be an underestimation of CVD risk in this genetically predisposed population. These subjects at high risk had significantly elevated levels of lipid, pro-inflammatory, pro-thrombotic, and serological markers. It is more relevant to develop risk predictive scores for application to the Indian population. This study substantiates the argument that alternative approaches to risk stratification are required in order to make them more adaptable and applicable to different populations with varying risk factor and disease patterns.Keywords: atherosclerosis, risk factors, risk score, Framingham, plasma biomarkers

  4. Population-standardized genetic risk score: the SNP-based method of choice for inherited risk assessment of prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carly A Conran

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Several different approaches are available to clinicians for determining prostate cancer (PCa risk. The clinical validity of various PCa risk assessment methods utilizing single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs has been established; however, these SNP-based methods have not been compared. The objective of this study was to compare the three most commonly used SNP-based methods for PCa risk assessment. Participants were men (n = 1654 enrolled in a prospective study of PCa development. Genotypes of 59 PCa risk-associated SNPs were available in this cohort. Three methods of calculating SNP-based genetic risk scores (GRSs were used for the evaluation of individual disease risk such as risk allele count (GRS-RAC, weighted risk allele count (GRS-wRAC, and population-standardized genetic risk score (GRS-PS. Mean GRSs were calculated, and performances were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC and positive predictive value (PPV. All SNP-based methods were found to be independently associated with PCa (all P 0.05 for comparisons between the three methods, and all three SNP-based methods had a significantly higher AUC than family history (all P < 0.05. Results from this study suggest that while the three most commonly used SNP-based methods performed similarly in discriminating PCa from non-PCa at the population level, GRS-PS is the method of choice for risk assessment at the individual level because its value (where 1.0 represents average population risk can be easily interpreted regardless of the number of risk-associated SNPs used in the calculation.

  5. Diet scores and cardio-metabolic risk factors among Guatemalan young adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Cria O.; McCullough, Marjorie L.; Ramirez-Zea, Manuel; Stein, Aryeh D.

    2013-01-01

    We assessed the association of four diet quality scores with multiple cardio-metabolic outcomes among Guatemalan young adults experiencing the nutrition transition. We obtained cross-sectional dietary, demographic, anthropometric and cardio-metabolic risk factor data from 1220 Guatemalan adults (mean age 32·7 (SD 5·8) years) in 2002–4, and computed a Recommended Food Score (RFS), Not Recommended Food Score (NRFS), Food Variety Score (FVS) and the Dietary Quality Index-International (DQI-I). All four scores were correlated with energy intake (r 0·23–0·49; all P4 (women)) and waist circumference (cm; β = 0·02, 95 % CI 0·01, 0·03 (men); β = 0·02, 95 % CI = 0·01, 0·02 (women)). Among men, the RFS was positively associated with TAG (mg/l; β = 0·11, 95 % CI 0·02, 0·21) and glucose (mg/l; β = 0·13: 95 % CI 0·03, 0·22). We conclude that indices of diet quality are not consistently associated with chronic disease risk factor prevalence in this population of Guatemalan young adults. PMID:19025721

  6. Level and change in cognitive test scores predict risk of first stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeFries, Triveni; Avendaño, Mauricio; Glymour, M Maria

    2009-03-01

    To determine whether cognitive test scores and cognitive decline predict incidence of first diagnosed stroke. Stroke-free Health and Retirement Study participants were followed on average 7.6 years for self- or proxy-reported first stroke (1,483 events). Predictors included baseline performance on a modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (Mental Status) and Word Recall test and decline between baseline and second assessment in either measure. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models for the whole sample and stratified according to five major cardiovascular risk factors. National cohort study of noninstitutionalized adults with a mean baseline age of 64+/-9.9. Health and Retirement Study participants (n=19,699) aged 50 and older. Word Recall (HR for 1 standard deviation difference=0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.86-0.97)) and Mental Status (HR=0.89, 95% CI=0.84-0.95) predicted incident stroke. Mental Status predicted stroke risk in those with (HR=0.93, 95%=0.87-0.99) and without (HR=0.81, 95% CI=0.72-.91) one or more vascular risk factors. Word Recall declines predicted a 16% elevation in subsequent stroke risk (95% CI=1.01-1.34). Declines in Mental Status predicted a 37% elevation in stroke risk (95% CI=1.11-1.70). Cognitive test scores predict future stroke risk, independent of other major vascular risk factors.

  7. Diet scores and cardio-metabolic risk factors among Guatemalan young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Cria O; McCullough, Marjorie L; Ramirez-Zea, Manuel; Stein, Aryeh D

    2009-06-01

    We assessed the association of four diet quality scores with multiple cardio-metabolic outcomes among Guatemalan young adults experiencing the nutrition transition. We obtained cross-sectional dietary, demographic, anthropometric and cardio-metabolic risk factor data from 1220 Guatemalan adults (mean age 32.7 (sd 5.8) years) in 2002-4, and computed a Recommended Food Score (RFS), Not Recommended Food Score (NRFS), Food Variety Score (FVS) and the Dietary Quality Index-International (DQI-I). All four scores were correlated with energy intake (r 0.23-0.49; all P socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors and nutrient intakes. None of the scores was inversely associated with the metabolic syndrome or its components; rather some were positively associated with risk factors. Among both men and women the DQI-I was positively associated with BMI (kg/m2; beta = 0.10, 95 % CI 0.003, 0.21 (men); beta = 0.07, 95 % CI 0.01, 0.14 (women)) and waist circumference (cm; beta = 0.02, 95 % CI 0.01, 0.03 (men); beta = 0.02, 95 % CI = 0.01, 0.02 (women)). Among men, the RFS was positively associated with TAG (mg/l; beta = 0.11, 95 % CI 0.02, 0.21) and glucose (mg/l; beta = 0.13: 95 % CI 0.03, 0.22). We conclude that indices of diet quality are not consistently associated with chronic disease risk factor prevalence in this population of Guatemalan young adults.

  8. An Inflammatory Polymorphisms Risk Scoring System for the Differentiation of Ischemic Stroke Subtypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muiño, Elena; Krupinski, Jurek; Carrera, Caty; Gallego-Fabrega, Cristina; Montaner, Joan; Fernández-Cadenas, Israel

    2015-01-01

    Inflammation has been associated with atherothrombotic stroke and recently with cardioembolic stroke. Different genetic risk factors have been specifically associated with the subtypes of ischemic stroke (cardioembolic, atherothrombotic, and lacunar). However, there are no studies that have generated genetic risk scores for the different subtypes of ischemic stroke using polymorphisms associated with inflammation. Methods. We have analyzed 68 polymorphisms of 30 inflammatory mediator genes in 2,685 subjects: 1,987 stroke cases and 698 controls. We generated a genetic scoring system with the most significant polymorphisms weighted by the odds ratio of every polymorphism and taken into consideration the stroke subtype. Results. Three polymorphisms, rs1205 (CRP gene), rs1800779, and rs2257073 (NOS3 gene), were associated with cardioembolic stroke (p value stroke subtype (p value: 0.001) and was replicated in an independent cohort (p value: 0.017). The subjects with the highest score presented a cardioembolic stroke in 92.2% of the cases (p value: 0.002). Conclusion. The genetics of inflammatory markers is more closely associated with cardioembolic strokes than with atherothrombotic or lacunar strokes. The genetic risk scoring system could be useful in the prediction and differentiation of ischemic stroke; however, it might be specific to particular ischemic stroke subtypes. PMID:26355258

  9. The New York PTSD Risk Score for Assessment of Psychological Trauma: Male and Female Versions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boscarino, Joseph A.; Kirchner, H. Lester; Hoffman, Stuart N.; Sartorius, Jennifer; Adams, Richard E.; Figley, Charles R.

    2012-01-01

    We previously developed a new posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) screening instrument – the New York PTSD Risk Score (NYPRS). Since research suggests different PTSD risk factors and outcomes for men and women, in the current study we assessed the suitability of male and female versions of this screening instrument among 3,298 adults exposed to traumatic events. Using diagnostic test methods, including receiver operating curve (ROC) and bootstrap techniques, we examined different prediction domains, including core PTSD symptoms, trauma exposures, sleep disturbances, depression symptoms, and other measures to assess PTSD prediction models for men and women. While the original NYPRS worked well in predicting PTSD, significant interaction was detected by gender, suggesting that separate models are warranted for men and women. Model comparisons suggested that while the overall results appeared robust, prediction results differed by gender. For example, for women, core PTSD symptoms contributed more to the prediction score than for men. For men, depression symptoms, sleep disturbance, and trauma exposure contributed more to the prediction score. Men also had higher cut-off scores for PTSD compared to women. There were other gender-specific differences as well. The NYPRS is a screener that appears to be effective in predicting PTSD status among at-risk populations. However, consistent with other medical research, this instrument appears to require male and female versions to be the most effective. PMID:22648009

  10. Prospective comparison of three risk scoring systems in non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanapirom, Kessarin; Ridtitid, Wiriyaporn; Rerknimitr, Rungsun; Thungsuk, Rattikorn; Noophun, Phadet; Wongjitrat, Chatchawan; Luangjaru, Somchai; Vedkijkul, Padet; Lertkupinit, Comson; Poonsab, Swangphong; Ratanachu-ek, Thawee; Hansomburana, Piyathida; Pornthisarn, Bubpha; Thongbai, Thirada; Mahachai, Varocha; Treeprasertsuk, Sombat

    2016-04-01

    Data regarding the efficacy of the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (FRS) and pre-endoscopic Rockall scores (PRS) in comparing non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) are limited. Our aim was to determine the performance of these three risk scores in predicting the need for treatment, mortality, and re-bleeding among patients with non-variceal and variceal UGIB. During January, 2010 and September, 2011, patients with UGIB from 11 hospitals were prospectively enrolled. The GBS, FRS, and PRS were calculated. Discriminative ability for each score was assessed using the receiver operated characteristics curve (ROC) analysis. A total of 981 patients presented with acute UGIB, 225 patients (22.9%) had variceal UGIB. The areas under the ROC (AUC) of the GBS, FRS, and PRS for predicting the need for treatment were 0.77, 0.69, and 0.61 in non-variceal versus 0.66, 0.66, and 0.59 in variceal UGIB. The AUC for predicting mortality and re-bleeding during admission were 0.66, 0.80, and 0.76 in non-variceal versus 0.63, 0.57, and 0.63 in variceal UGIB. AUC score was not statistically significant for predicting need for therapy and clinical outcome in variceal UGIB. The GBS ≤ 2 and FRS ≤ 1 identified low-risk non-variceal UGIB patients for death and re-bleeding during hospitalization. In contrast to non-variceal UGIB, the GBS, FRS, and PRS were not precise scores for assessing the need for therapy, mortality, and re-bleeding during admission in variceal UGIB. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  11. Clinical risk scores predict procedural complications of primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadadi, László; Şerban, Razvan Constantin; Scridon, Alina; Şuş, Ioana; Lakatos, Éva Katalin; Demjén, Zoltán; Dobreanu, Dan

    2017-04-01

    The predictive value of five risk score models containing clinical (PAMI-PMS, GRACE-GRS, and modified ACEF-ACEFm-scores), angiographic SYNTAX score (SXS) and combined Clinical SYNTAX score (CSS) variables were evaluated for the incidence of three procedural complications of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI): iatrogenic coronary artery dissection, angiographically visible distal embolization and angiographic no-reflow phenomenon. The mentioned scores and the incidence of procedural complications were retrospectively analyzed in 399 consecutive patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction who underwent pPCI. Coronary dissection, distal embolization and no-reflow occurred in 39 (9.77%), 71 (17.79%), and 108 (27.07%) subjects, respectively. Coronary dissections were significantly associated with higher GRS, ACEFm, and CSS values (all p<0.05). PMS, GRS, ACEFm, and CSS were significantly higher in patients with no-reflow (all p<0.05), while distal embolization was not predicted by any of the calculated scores. In multiple logistic regression models, GRS and ACEFm remained independent predictors of both coronary dissections (OR 3.20, 95% CI 1.56-6.54, p<0.01 and OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.27-6.45, p=0.01, respectively) and no-reflow (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.04-2.82, p=0.03 and OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.10-3.14, p=0.01, respectively). Whereas SXS failed to predict procedural complications related to pPCI, two simple, noninvasive risk models, GRS and ACEFm, independently predicted coronary dissections and no-reflow. Pre-interventional assessment of these scores may help the interventional cardiologist to prepare for procedural complications during pPCI.

  12. Clinicoradiological score for predicting the risk of strangulated small bowel obstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenter, F; Poletti, P A; Platon, A; Perneger, T; Morel, P; Gervaz, P

    2010-07-01

    Intestinal ischaemia as a result of small bowel obstruction (SBO) requires prompt recognition and early intervention. A clinicoradiological score was sought to predict the risk of ischaemia in patients with SBO. A clinico-radiological protocol for the assessment of patients presenting with SBO was used. A logistic regression model was applied to identify determinant variables and construct a clinical score that would predict ischaemia requiring resection. Of 233 consecutive patients with SBO, 138 required laparotomy of whom 45 underwent intestinal resection. In multivariable analysis, six variables correlated with small bowel resection and were given one point each towards the clinical score: history of pain lasting 4 days or more, guarding, C-reactive protein level at least 75 mg/l, leucocyte count 10 x 10(9)/l or greater, free intraperitoneal fluid volume at least 500 ml on computed tomography (CT) and reduction of CT small bowel wall contrast enhancement. The risk of intestinal ischaemia was 6 per cent in patients with a score of 1 or less, whereas 21 of 29 patients with a score of 3 or more underwent small bowel resection. A positive score of 3 or more had a sensitivity of 67.7 per cent and specificity 90.8 per cent; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.87 (95 per cent confidence interval 0.79 to 0.95). By combining clinical, laboratory and radiological parameters, the clinical score allowed early identification of strangulated SBO. Copyright (c) 2010 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. The value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for refining stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation with a CHADS2 score 0-1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock

    2012-01-01

    -level-linkage of nationwide Danish registries 1997-2008, we identified patients discharged with AF having a CHADS2 score of 0-1 and not treated with vitamin K antagonist or heparin. In patients with a CHADS2 score of 0, 1, and 0-1, rates of stroke/ thromboembolism were determined according to CHA2DS2-VASc score, and the risk...... associated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated in Cox regression models adjusted for year of inclusion and antiplatelet therapy. The value of adding the extra CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors to the CHADS2 score was evaluated by c-statistics, Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and Integrated....... Of the cohort with a CHADS2 score of 0-1, the stroke/thromboembolism rate per 100 person-years increased with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score (95% confidence interval): 0.84 (0.65-1.08), 1.79 (1.53-2.09), 3.67 (3.34-4.03), 5.75 (5.33-6.21), and 8.18 (6.68-10.02) at one year follow-up with CHA2DS2-VASc scores of 0...

  14. Influence of Polygenic Risk Scores on the Association Between Infections and Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benros, Michael E; Trabjerg, Betina B; Meier, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    affect the risk of acquiring infections among patients with schizophrenia (odds ratio = 1.00; 95% CI = 0.89-1.12) nor among controls (odds ratio = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.96-1.24). CONCLUSIONS: PRS and a history of infections have independent effects on the risk for schizophrenia, and the common genetic risk......BACKGROUND: Several studies have suggested an important role of infections in the etiology of schizophrenia; however, shared genetic liability toward infections and schizophrenia could influence the association. We therefore investigated the possible effect of polygenic risk scores (PRSs......) for schizophrenia on the association between infections and the risk of schizophrenia. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study on a Danish population-based sample born after 1981 comprising of 1692 cases diagnosed with schizophrenia between 1994 and 2008 and 1724 matched controls. All individuals were...

  15. A clinically useful risk-score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Mocroft

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Development of a simple, widely applicable risk score for chronic kidney disease (CKD allows comparisons of risks or benefits of starting potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals (ARVs as part of a treatment regimen. Materials and Methods: A total of 18,055 HIV-positive persons from the Data on Adverse Drugs (D:A:D study with >3 estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs >1/1/2004 were included. Persons with use of tenofovir (TDF, atazanavir (ritonavir boosted (ATV/r and unboosted (ATV, lopinavir (LPV/r and other boosted protease inhibitors (bPIs before baseline (first eGFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1/1/2004 were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 months apart eGFR 5 points risk of developing CKD. Increased incidence of CKD associated with starting ARVs was modelled by including ARVs as time-updated variables. The risk score was externally validated on two independent cohorts. Results: A total of 641 persons developed CKD during 103,278.5 PYFU (incidence 6.2/1000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7–6.7. Older age, intravenous drug use, HCV+ antibody status, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 nadir, hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease predicted CKD and were included in the risk score (Figure 1. The incidence of CKD in those at low, medium and high risk was 0.8/1000 PYFU (95% CI 0.6–1.0, 5.6 (95% CI 4.5–6.7 and 37.4 (95% CI 34.0–40.7 (Figure 1. The risk score showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistic 0.92, 95% CI 0.90–0.93. The number needed to harm (NNTH in patients starting ATV or LPV/r was 1395, 142 or 20, respectively, among those with low, medium or high risk. NNTH were 603, 61 and 9 for those with a low, medium or high risk starting TDF, ATV/r or bPIs. The risk score was externally validated on 2603 persons from the Royal Free Hospital clinic cohort (94 events, incidence 5.1/1000 PYFU; 95% CI 4.1–6.1 and 2013 persons from the control arms of SMART/ESPRIT (32 events, incidence 3.8/1000 PYFU

  16. Analysis of Surgical Site Infection after Musculoskeletal Tumor Surgery: Risk Assessment Using a New Scoring System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Nagano

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Surgical site infection (SSI has not been extensively studied in musculoskeletal tumors (MST owing to the rarity of the disease. We analyzed incidence and risk factors of SSI in MST. SSI incidence was evaluated in consecutive 457 MST cases (benign, 310 cases and malignant, 147 cases treated at our institution. A detailed analysis of the clinical background of the patients, pre- and postoperative hematological data, and other factors that might be associated with SSI incidence was performed for malignant MST cases. SSI occurred in 0.32% and 12.2% of benign and malignant MST cases, respectively. The duration of the surgery (P=0.0002 and intraoperative blood loss (P=0.0005 was significantly more in the SSI group than in the non-SSI group. We established the musculoskeletal oncological surgery invasiveness (MOSI index by combining 4 risk factors (blood loss, operation duration, preoperative chemotherapy, and the use of artificial materials. The MOSI index (0–4 points score significantly correlated with the risk of SSI, as demonstrated by an SSI incidence of 38.5% in the group with a high score (3-4 points. The MOSI index score and laboratory data at 1 week after surgery could facilitate risk evaluation and prompt diagnosis of SSI.

  17. A metabolic syndrome severity score: A tool to quantify cardio-metabolic risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Joshua F; Carrington, Melinda J

    2016-07-01

    Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of cardio-metabolic risk factors and is associated with increased mortality. There is no standard, validated way to assess the severity of aggregated metabolic syndrome risk factors. Cardiovascular and diabetes risk factor data came from two studies conducted in Australia from 2006 to 2010 in adults aged 18 or above. In medication free adults, sex-specific clinical thresholds and Principal Component Analysis were used to develop a formula to calculate a metabolic syndrome severity score (MetSSS). These scores were compared to scores derived using the same process in subgroups by sex, age, medication status, and time. We also examined the MetSSS in relation to other known risk factors. In 2125 adults (57.6±14.7years of age), the MetSSS ranged from 0 to 8.7 with a mean of 2.6. There were strong correlations (.95-.99) between the MetSSS in medication free adults and the MetSSS calculated from subgroups. MetSSS predicted medication initiation for hypertension, hyperlipidemia and hyperglycemia over six months (OR=1.31, 95% CI [1.00-1.70], per MetSSS unit, p=.043). Lower education, medication prescription, history of smoking and age were associated with higher MetSSS (all p<.05). Higher physical but not mental health quality of life was associated with lower MetSSS (p<.001). A standardized formula to measure cardio-metabolic risk factor severity was constructed and demonstrated expected relations with known risk factors. The use of the MetSSS is recommended as a measure of change within individuals in cardio-metabolic risk factors and to guide treatment and management.

  18. Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Hongying

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

  19. Genetic risk score and acute skin toxicity after breast radiation therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borghini, Andrea; Vecoli, Cecilia; Mercuri, Antonella; Petruzzelli, Maria Fonte; D'Errico, Maria Patrizia; Portaluri, Maurizio; Andreassi, Maria Grazia

    2014-09-01

    Genetic predisposition has been shown to affect the severity of skin complications in breast cancer patients after radiotherapy. Limited data exist regarding the use of a genetic risk score (GRS) for predicting risk of tissue radiosensitivity. We evaluated the impact of different single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes related to DNA repair mechanisms and oxidative stress response combined in a GRS on acute adverse effects induced by breast radiation therapy (RT). Skin toxicity was scored according to the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) criteria in 59 breast cancer patients who received RT. After genotyping, a multilocus GRS was constructed by summing the number of risk alleles. The hazard ratio (HR) for GSTM1 was 2.4 (95% confidence intervals [CI]=1.1-5.3, p=0.04). The other polymorphisms were associated to an increased adverse radiosensitivity, although they did not reach statistical significance. GRS predicted roughly 40% risk for acute skin toxicity per risk allele (HR 1.37, 95% CI=1.1-1.76, pskin reaction (HR 5.1, 95% CI=1.2-22.8, p=0.03). Our findings demonstrate that the joint effect of SNPs from oxidative stress and DNA damage repair genes may be a promising approach to identify patients with a high risk of skin reaction after breast RT.

  20. Automated texture scoring for assessing breast cancer masking risk in full field digital mammography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kallenberg, Michiel Gijsbertus J; Petersen, Kersten; Lilholm, Martin;

    validation. To assess the independency of the texture scores of breast density, density was determined for each image using Volpara. RESULTS: The odds ratios for interval cancer were 1.59 (95%CI: 0.76-3.32), 2.07 (1.02-4.20), and 3.14 (1.60-6.17) for quartile 2, 3 and 4 respectively, relative to quartile 1....... Correlation between the texture scores and breast density was 0.59 (0.52-0.64). Breast density adjusted odds ratios, as determined with logistic regression, were 1.49 (0.71-3.13), 1.58 (0.75-3.33), and 1.97 (0.91-4.27). CONCLUSIONS: The CSAE texture score is independently associated with the risk of having...

  1. Predicting PTSD using the New York Risk Score with genotype data: potential clinical and research opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boscarino JA

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Joseph A Boscarino,1,2 H Lester Kirchner,3,4 Stuart N Hoffman,5 Porat M Erlich1,4 1Center for Health Research, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 2Department of Psychiatry, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 3Division of Medicine, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 4Department of Medicine, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 5Department of Neurology, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, PA, USA Background: We previously developed a post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD screening instrument, ie, the New York PTSD Risk Score (NYPRS, that was effective in predicting PTSD. In the present study, we assessed a version of this risk score that also included genetic information. Methods: Utilizing diagnostic testing methods, we hierarchically examined different prediction variables identified in previous NYPRS research, including genetic risk-allele information, to assess lifetime and current PTSD status among a population of trauma-exposed adults. Results: We found that, in predicting lifetime PTSD, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC for the Primary Care PTSD Screen alone was 0.865. When we added psychosocial predictors from the original NYPRS to the model, including depression, sleep disturbance, and a measure of health care access, the AUC increased to 0.902, which was a significant improvement (P = 0.0021. When genetic information was added in the form of a count of PTSD risk alleles located within FKBP, COMT, CHRNA5, and CRHR1 genetic loci (coded 0–6, the AUC increased to 0.920, which was also a significant improvement (P = 0.0178. The results for current PTSD were similar. In the final model for current PTSD with the psychosocial risk factors included, genotype resulted in a prediction weight of 17 for each risk allele present, indicating that a person with six risk alleles or more would receive a PTSD risk score of 17 × 6 = 102, the highest risk score for any of the predictors studied. Conclusion: Genetic

  2. Risk stratification scores for predicting mortality in coronary artery bypass surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baretti, R; Pannek, N; Knecht, J-P; Krabatsch, T; Hübler, S; Hetzer, R

    2002-08-01

    Four risk-stratification scores (RSSs - Euro, French, CCS/Higgins, Parsonnet) were tested as predictors of mortality in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. From March to April 2000, the perioperative courses of 245 consecutive CABG patients were compared to the predictions according to the RSSs. Sensitivity and specificity were determined with receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. CCS/Higgins uses the most easily acquired patient data, and rates emergency conditions as high-risk. Euro focuses on advanced age and septal rupture. French uses the smallest number of patient parameters and rates rare critical situations as high-risk. Parsonnet is partially based on the physician's subjective assessment of a "catastrophic state," making the scoring arbitrary. All RSSs gave similar (not significant) areas under the ROC curves regarding mortality (Euro 0.826 +/- 0.080, French 0.783 +/- 0.094, CCS/Higgins 0.820 +/- 0.060, Parsonnet 0.831 +/- 0.042). Predicted risk levels for the 11 patients who died differed between the RSSs--Higgins placed these patients in 3 of 5 risk levels with ascending distribution. The other RSSs placed these patients in the highest risk level except for one and two patients, respectively, who were placed in the lowest Euro and French risk level. Euro and Parsonnet placed about half of all patients with non-lethal outcome in the highest risk level. All RSSs satisfactorily estimated the group risk for mortality. No RSS expressed sufficient validity to predict individuals with lethal outcome. In clinical use, CCS/Higgins proved the most practicable.

  3. Risk factors of incomplete Apgar score and umbilical cord blood gas analysis: a retrospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tetering, Anne A C; van de Ven, Joost; Fransen, Annemarie F; Dieleman, Jeanne P; van Runnard Heimel, Pieter J; Oei, S Guid

    2017-11-01

    To investigate whether incomplete umbilical cord blood gas (UCBG) analysis occurs more often than the incomplete reporting of the Apgar score, and risk factors associated with the incomplete values. A total of 8824 infants born alive after 26 weeks' gestation between January 2009 and April 2013 were included. We extracted data on five-minute Apgar score, UCBG analysis, gestational age, mode of delivery, time of delivery and multiple pregnancy. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed. Five-minute Apgar score was incomplete in 15 cases (0.2%) and UCBG analysis in 1960 cases (22.2%), p < 0.05. Incomplete UCBG analysis was significantly more likely to occur in situations with Apgar score below seven (Odds ratio (OR) 1.68, 95% CI;1.29-2.19), gestational age between 26 to 27 6/7 and 28 to 31 6/7 weeks (OR 3.14, 95% CI; 2.13-4.62 and OR 1.91, 95% CI; 1.57-2.32), cesarean section (OR 1.31, 95% CI; 1.11-1.55), and multiple pregnancy (OR 2.02, 95% CI; 1.69-2.43). Deliveries during night time had a lower risk of incomplete UCBG analysis (OR 0.78, 95% CI; 0.69-0.88). Measuring five-minute Apgar score generated less incomplete data compared with UCBG analysis. The risk factors associated with incomplete UCBG analysis were noted. Study outcomes with UCBG analysis as neonatal assessment tool should be interpreted with caution.

  4. Risk prediction score for severe high altitude illness: a cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florence Canouï-Poitrine

    Full Text Available Risk prediction of acute mountain sickness, high altitude (HA pulmonary or cerebral edema is currently based on clinical assessment. Our objective was to develop a risk prediction score of Severe High Altitude Illness (SHAI combining clinical and physiological factors. Study population was 1017 sea-level subjects who performed a hypoxia exercise test before a stay at HA. The outcome was the occurrence of SHAI during HA exposure. Two scores were built, according to the presence (PRE, n = 537 or absence (ABS, n = 480 of previous experience at HA, using multivariate logistic regression. Calibration was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow chisquare test and discrimination by Area Under ROC Curve (AUC and Net Reclassification Index (NRI.The score was a linear combination of history of SHAI, ventilatory and cardiac response to hypoxia at exercise, speed of ascent, desaturation during hypoxic exercise, history of migraine, geographical location, female sex, age under 46 and regular physical activity. In the PRE/ABS groups, the score ranged from 0 to 12/10, a cut-off of 5/5.5 gave a sensitivity of 87%/87% and a specificity of 82%/73%. Adding physiological variables via the hypoxic exercise test improved the discrimination ability of the models: AUC increased by 7% to 0.91 (95%CI: 0.87-0.93 and 17% to 0.89 (95%CI: 0.85-0.91, NRI was 30% and 54% in the PRE and ABS groups respectively. A score computed with ten clinical, environmental and physiological factors accurately predicted the risk of SHAI in a large cohort of sea-level residents visiting HA regions.

  5. Prostate cancer staging with extracapsular extension risk scoring using multiparametric MRI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boesen, Lars; Chabanova, Elizaveta; Løgager, Vibeke

    2015-01-01

    based on tumour characteristics and personal opinion were assigned. Histopathological prostatectomy results were standard reference. RESULTS: Histopathology and cTMRI showed a spearman rho correlation of 0.658 (p .../87 (36 %) patients. ECE risk-scoring showed an AUC of 0.65-0.86 on ROC-curve for both readers, with sensitivity and specificity of 81 % and 78 % at best cutoff level (reader A), respectively. When tumour characteristics were influenced by personal opinion, the sensitivity and specificity for prediction...

  6. Cardiovascular disease risk in women with migraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockett, Fernanda Camboim; Perla, Alexandre da Silveira; Perry, Ingrid D Schweigert; Chaves, Márcia L Fagundes

    2013-09-06

    Studies suggest a higher prevalence of unfavourable cardiovascular risk factors amongst migraineurs, but results have been conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate traditional and newly recognized risk factors as well as other surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk in obese and normal weight women with migraine. Fifty-nine adult female probands participated in this case-control study. The sample was divided into normal weight and obese migraineurs and age- and body mass index-matched control groups. The following cardiovascular risk factors were analyzed: serum levels of lipids, fasting glucose, and insulin; insulin resistance; blood pressure; smoking (categorized as current, past or never); Framingham 10-year risk of general cardiovascular disease score; C-reactive protein; family history of cardiovascular disease; physical activity; sleep disturbances; depression; and bioelectrical impedance phase angle. The means of continuous variables were compared using Student's t-test for independent samples or the Mann-Whitney U-test (for 2 groups) and ANOVA or the Kruskal-Wallis test (for 4 groups) depending on the distribution of data. All migraineurs were sedentary irrespective of nutritional status. Migraineurs had higher depression scores and shorter sleep duration, and obese migraineurs, in particular, had worse sleep quality scores. Insulin resistance and insulinaemia were associated with obesity, and obese migraineurs had lower HDL-c than normal weight controls and migraineurs. Also, the Framingham risk score was higher in obese migraineurs. These findings suggest that female migraineurs experience marked inactivity, depression, and some sleep disturbance, that higher insulin resistance and insulinaemia are related to obesity, and that obesity and migraine probably exert overlapping effects on HDL-c levels and Framingham 10-year cardiovascular risk.

  7. Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis score for early diagnosis of necrotizing fasciitis in Darwin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimhan, Vignesh; Ooi, Geraldine; Weidlich, Stephanie; Carson, Phillip

    2017-03-15

    Soft tissue infections are a major health burden in the Top End of the Northern Territory of Australia. Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is associated with mortality rates from 8 to 40%. Early recognition and aggressive surgical debridement are the cornerstones of successful treatment. The Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) score, developed by Wong et al., uses six routine biochemical variables to aid early diagnosis. We aim to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the LRINEC score in our population. A retrospective review of patients with NF between 2005 and 2013 was conducted. A time matched cohort of abscesses/cellulitis was selected. Admission bloods were used to calculate the LRINEC score. An intraoperative finding of NF was used as the gold standard definition for comparison. The diagnostic accuracy of the LRINEC score was assessed. Ninety-eight patients with NF and 205 control patients were identified. The area under the receiver operator curve for the LRINEC score in detecting NF was 0.925 (0.890-0.959, P < 0.001). The sensitivity of the LRINEC ≥5 for NF was 76.3%, with a specificity of 93.1%. The positive and negative predictive values were 95.5 and 88.1%, respectively. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 11 and 0.25. The LRINEC score is a useful, robust, non-invasive and easily calculated scoring system that can be used as an adjunct to early diagnosis of NF. However, a high degree of clinical suspicion remains the most important factor in early diagnosis of NF. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  8. Assessment of a complication risk score and study of complication profile in laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malleo, Giuseppe; Salvia, Roberto; Mascetta, Giuseppe; Esposito, Alessandro; Landoni, Luca; Casetti, Luca; Maggino, Laura; Bassi, Claudio; Butturini, Giovanni

    2014-11-01

    This study assessed the patient-specific risk for major postoperative morbidity in a series of 100 laparoscopic distal pancreatectomies (LDP). A previously established complication risk score (CRS), identifying body mass index (BMI), estimated blood loss (EBL), and pancreatic specimen length as determinants of postoperative morbidity were examined against the observed outcomes. In addition, multivariate analyses were performed to investigate risk factors specific to our study population. The postoperative morbidity rate was 49 %, major complication accounted for 12 %, and clinically relevant pancreatic fistulae (PF) were 13 %. The incidence of any complications, major complications, any PF, and clinically relevant PF did not vary appreciably when the CRS increased. The multivariate analysis indicated that male sex and an EBL ≥150 mL were independent predictors of major morbidity and clinically relevant PF. In conclusion, the previously published CRS based on pre- and intraoperative factors was not able to predict the postoperative risk in our population. This is probably because risk scores may not be able to adjust for the case-mix (heterogeneity in baseline patient characteristics). According to our data, men and patients with EBL ≥150 mL are more likely to develop major postoperative complications after LDP.

  9. Risk of Coronary Heart Disease among HIV-Infected Patients: A Multicenter Study in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra C. Fuchs

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease has emerged as a crescent problem among HIV-infected population. This study aimed to determine the 10-year risk of coronary heart disease using the Framingham risk score among HIV-infected patients from three regions of Brazil. This is a pooled analysis of three cohort studies, which enrolled 3,829 individuals, 59% were men, 66% had white skin color, and mean age 39.0 ± 9.9 years. Comparisons among regions showed that there were marked differences in demographic, socioeconomic, clinical, and HIV-related characteristics. Prevalence of Framingham score ≥10 was 4.5% in the Southern, 4.2% in the Midwest, and 3.9% in the Northeast of Brazil. The Framingham score ≥10 was similar between regions for males, patients aged ≥60 years, with obesity, central obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. Women were three times more likely to have coronary heart disease in 10 years than men. Hypertension and diabetes increased more than four times the risk of coronary heart disease, followed by central obesity, obesity, and prehypertension. The use of antiretroviral agents and time since HIV diagnosis were not risk factors for coronary artery disease in 10 years. In conclusion, hypertension and diabetes are the strongest independent predictors of 10-year risk of coronary heart disease among HIV-infected population.

  10. Puntaje de detección de riesgo nutricional para mortalidad en pacientes críticamente enfermos: NSRR: Nutritional Score Risk Research Nutritional score risk for mortality in critically ill patients: NSRR: Nutritional Score Risk Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Marín Ramírez

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo: El objetivo principal del estudio fue la validación de un puntaje en la valoración nutricional al momento de llegar a la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI con o sin enfermedad previa, con el fin de establecer riesgos nutricionales de muerte desde el ingreso. Diseño: Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, prospectivo, observacional de carácter transversal de abril del 2004 a diciembre del 2006. Ámbito: El estudio fue realizado en UCI. Pacientes y participantes: Para el estudio se lograron encuestar 228 pacientes. Las encuestas eran realizadas al familiar cercano que vivía con el paciente, en aquel momento que el familiar mostrar no convivencia con el paciente y/o desconocimiento de su patrón de ingesta de alimentos durante el diario la encuesta era descartada. Se seleccionaron al azar con patologías críticas (sepsis, trauma, pacientes neurocríticos, pacientes médicos, obstétricas críticas, etc. en dos unidades de cuidados intensivos. Intervenciones: Interrogatorio a familiares. Variables de interés: El puntaje escogido fue el Nutritional Score Risk (NSR el cual es elaborado para pacientes mayores de 65 años, puntaje que es ahora modificado para ser utilizado en las unidades de cuidados intensivos en forma práctica, viable, rápida, clara y útil en la obtención de resultados. Resultados: Nuestro estudio demostró que las alteraciones del NSR se pueden observar en todas las edades, establecido por no haber una correlación directa entre la edad y el NSR encontrado (r = 0,15, p = 0,018, además se encontró que el sufrir enfermedades crónicas que alteren las condiciones de ingesta alimentaria adecuada es un parámetro aislado significativo para incrementar la probabilidad de muerte al ingreso a la UCI (p = 0,002. Conclusiones: El NSR mostró que pacientes con un puntaje alto al ingresar por alguna patología aguda se encuentran en riesgo nutricional de morir.Aim: The aim of our study has been applying a nutritional score

  11. Estimation of cardiovascular risk on routine chest CT: Ordinal coronary artery calcium scoring as an accurate predictor of Agatston score ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azour, Lea; Kadoch, Michael A; Ward, Thomas J; Eber, Corey D; Jacobi, Adam H

    Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is often identified on routine chest computed tomography (CT). The purpose of our study was to evaluate whether ordinal scoring of CAC on non-gated, routine chest CT is an accurate predictor of Agatston score ranges in a community-based population, and in particular to determine the accuracy of an ordinal score of zero on routine chest CT. Two thoracic radiologists reviewed consecutive same-day ECG-gated and routine non-gated chest CT scans of 222 individuals. CAC was quantified using the Agatston scoring on the ECG-gated scans, and using an ordinal method on routine scans, with a score from 0 to 12. The pattern and distribution of CAC was assessed. The correlation between routine exam ordinal scores and Agatston scores in ECG-gated exams, as well as the accuracy of assigning a zero calcium score on routine chest CT was determined. CAC was most prevalent in the left anterior descending coronary artery in both single and multi-vessel coronary artery disease. There was a strong correlation between the non-gated ordinal and ECG-gated Agatston scores (r = 0.811, p < 0.01). Excellent inter-reader agreement (k = 0.95) was shown for the presence (total ordinal score ≥1) or absence (total ordinal score = 0) of CAC on routine chest CT. The negative predictive value for a total ordinal score of zero on routine CT was 91.6% (95% CI, 85.1-95.9). Total ordinal scores of 0, 1-3, 4-5, and ≥6 corresponded to average Agatston scores of 0.52 (0.3-0.8), 98.7 (78.2-117.1), 350.6 (264.9-436.3) and 1925.4 (1526.9-2323.9). Visual assessment of CAC on non-gated routine chest CT accurately predicts Agatston score ranges, including the zero score, in ECG-gated CT. Inclusion of this information in radiology reports may be useful to convey important information on cardiovascular risk, particularly premature atherosclerosis in younger patients. Copyright © 2016 Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  12. Advanced age, cardiovascular risk burden, and timed up and go test performance in Parkinson disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotagal, Vikas; Albin, Roger L; Müller, Martijn L T M; Koeppe, Robert A; Studenski, Stephanie; Frey, Kirk A; Bohnen, Nicolaas I

    2014-12-01

    Cardiovascular comorbidities are a known risk factor for impaired mobility in elderly individuals. Motor impairments in Parkinson disease are conventionally ascribed to nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation although progressive gait and balance impairments become more common with aging and often show limited response to dopaminergic replacement therapies. We explored the association between elevated cardiovascular risk factors and performance on the Timed Up and Go test in cross-sectional of Parkinson disease subjects (n = 83). Cardiovascular risk factor status was estimated using the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease risk-scoring algorithm in order to dichotomize the cohort into those with and without elevated modifiable cardiovascular risk compared with normative scores for age and gender. All subjects underwent clinical and neuroimaging evaluations including a 3-m Timed Up and Go test, [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine positron emission tomography imaging to estimate nigrostriatal dopamine terminal loss, and an magnetic resonance imaging assessment of leukoaraiosis. A similar analysis was performed in 49 healthy controls. After adjusting for disease duration, leukoaraiosis, and nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation, Parkinson disease subjects with elevated Framingham risk scores (n = 61) displayed slower Timed Up and Go test performance (β = 1.86, t = 2.41, p = .018) compared with subjects with normal range Framingham risk scores (n = 22). When age ≥65 was added to the model in a post hoc analysis, the strength of effect seen with older age (β = 1.51, t = 2.44, p = .017) was similar to that of elevated Framingham risk scoring (β = 1.87, t = 2.51, p = .014). In a multivariable regression model studying the healthy control population, advanced age (t = 2.15, p = .037) was a significant predictor of Timed Up and Go speed though striatal [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine (t = -1.30, p = .19) and elevated Framingham risk scores (t = 1.32, p = .19) were not

  13. Aggregate National Early Warning Score (NEWS) values are more important than high scores for a single vital signs parameter for discriminating the risk of adverse outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, Stuart; Kovacs, Caroline; Briggs, Jim; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

    2015-02-01

    The Royal College of Physicians (RCPL) National Early Warning Score (NEWS) escalates care to a doctor at NEWS values of ≥5 and when the score for any single vital sign is 3. We calculated the 24-h risk of serious clinical outcomes for vital signs observation sets with NEWS values of 3, 4 and 5, separately determining risks when the score did/did not include a single score of 3. We compared workloads generated by the RCPL's escalation protocol and for aggregate NEWS value alone. Aggregate NEWS values of 3 or 4 (n=142,282) formed 15.1% of all vital signs sets measured; those containing a single vital sign scoring 3 (n=36,207) constituted 3.8% of all sets. Aggregate NEWS values of either 3 or 4 with a component score of 3 have significantly lower risks (OR: 0.26 and 0.53) than an aggregate value of 5 (OR: 1.0). Escalating care to a doctor when any single component of NEWS scores 3 compared to when aggregate NEWS values ≥5, would have increased doctors' workload by 40% with only a small increase in detected adverse outcomes from 2.99 to 3.08 per day (a 3% improvement in detection). The recommended NEWS escalation protocol produces additional work for the bedside nurse and responding doctor, disproportionate to a modest benefit in increased detection of adverse outcomes. It may have significant ramifications for efficient staff resource allocation, distort patient safety focus and risk alarm fatigue. Our findings suggest that the RCPL escalation guidance warrants review. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Lack of physical activity in young children is related to higher composite risk factor score for cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanha, Tina; Wollmer, Per; Thorsson, Ola

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluates whether accelerometer-measured physical activity is related to higher composite risk factor scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in children.......This study evaluates whether accelerometer-measured physical activity is related to higher composite risk factor scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in children....

  15. Development of a claims-based risk score to identify obese individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Jeanne M; Chang, Hsien-Yen; Bolen, Shari D; Shore, Andrew D; Goodwin, Suzanne M; Weiner, Jonathan P

    2010-08-01

    Obesity is underdiagnosed, hampering system-based health promotion and research. Our objective was to develop and validate a claims-based risk model to identify obese persons using medical diagnosis and prescription records. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of de-identified claims data from enrollees of 3 Blue Cross Blue Shield plans who completed a health risk assessment capturing height and weight. The final sample of 71,057 enrollees was randomly split into 2 subsamples for development and validation of the obesity risk model. Using the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups case-mix/predictive risk methodology, we categorized study members' diagnosis (ICD) codes. Logistic regression was used to determine which claims-based risk markers were associated with a body mass index (BMI) > or = 35 kg/m(2). The sensitivities of the scores > or =90(th) percentile to detect obesity were 26% to 33%, while the specificities were >90%. The areas under the receiver operator curve ranged from 0.67 to 0.73. In contrast, a diagnosis of obesity or an obesity medication alone had very poor sensitivity (10% and 1%, respectively); the obesity risk model identified an additional 22% of obese members. Varying the percentile cut-point from the 70(th) to the 99(th) percentile resulted in positive predictive values ranging from 15.5 to 59.2. An obesity risk score was highly specific for detecting a BMI > or = 35 kg/m(2) and substantially increased the detection of obese members beyond a provider-coded obesity diagnosis or medication claim. This model could be used for obesity care management and health promotion or for obesity-related research.

  16. Multivariate injury risk criteria and injury probability scores for fractures to the distal radius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhart, Timothy A; Andrews, David M; Dunning, Cynthia E

    2013-03-15

    The purpose of this study was to develop a multivariate distal radius injury risk prediction model that incorporates dynamic loading variables in multiple directions, and interpret the distal radius failure data in order to establish injury probability thresholds. Repeated impacts with increasing intensity were applied to the distal third of eight human cadaveric radius specimens (mean (SD) age=61.9 (9.7)) until injury occurred. Crack (non-propagating damage) and fracture (specimen separated into at least two fragments) injury events were recorded. Best subsets analysis was performed to find the best multivariate injury risk model. Force-only risk models were also determined for comparison. Cumulative distribution functions were developed from the parameters of a Weibull analysis and the forces and risk scores (i.e., values calculated from the injury risk models) from 10% to 90% probability were calculated. According to the adjusted R(2), variance inflation factor and p-values, the model that best predicted the crack event included medial/lateral impulse, Fz load rate, impact velocity and the natural logarithm of Fz (Adj. R(2)=0.698), while the best predictive model of the fracture event included medial/lateral impulse, impact velocity and peak Fz (Adj. R(2)=0.845). The multivariate models predicted injury risk better than both the Fz-only crack (Adj. R(2)=0.551) and fracture (Adj. R(2)=0.293) models. Risk scores of 0.5 and 0.6 corresponded to 10% failure probability for the crack and fracture events, respectively. The inclusion of medial/lateral impulse and impact velocity in both crack and fracture models, and Fz load rate in the crack model, underscores the dynamic nature of these events. This study presents a method capable of developing a set of distal radius fracture prediction models that can be used in the assessment and development of distal radius injury prevention interventions.

  17. Influence of Polygenic Risk Scores on the Association Between Infections and Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benros, Michael E; Trabjerg, Betina B; Meier, Sandra; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mortensen, Preben B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Nørgaard-Pedersen, Bent; Nordentoft, Merete; Agerbo, Esben

    2016-10-15

    Several studies have suggested an important role of infections in the etiology of schizophrenia; however, shared genetic liability toward infections and schizophrenia could influence the association. We therefore investigated the possible effect of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for schizophrenia on the association between infections and the risk of schizophrenia. We conducted a nested case-control study on a Danish population-based sample born after 1981 comprising of 1692 cases diagnosed with schizophrenia between 1994 and 2008 and 1724 matched controls. All individuals were linked utilizing nationwide population-based registers with virtually complete registration of all hospital contacts for infections. PRSs were calculated using discovery effect size estimates weights from an independent meta-analysis (34,600 cases and 45,968 control individuals). A prior hospital contact with infection had occurred in 41% of the individuals with schizophrenia and increased the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of schizophrenia by 1.43 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22-1.67). Adding PRS, which was robustly associated with schizophrenia (by an IRR of 1.46 [95% CI = 1.34-1.60] per standard deviation of the score), did not alter the association with infections and the increased risk of schizophrenia remained (IRR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.20-1.66). Furthermore, there were no interactions between PRS and infections on the risk of developing schizophrenia (p = .554). Neither did PRS affect the risk of acquiring infections among patients with schizophrenia (odds ratio = 1.00; 95% CI = 0.89-1.12) nor among controls (odds ratio = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.96-1.24). PRS and a history of infections have independent effects on the risk for schizophrenia, and the common genetic risk measured by PRS did not account for the association with infection in this sample. Copyright © 2016 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Heritability and genome-wide association analysis of renal sinus fat accumulation in the Framingham Heart Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foster Meredith C

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ectopic fat accumulation in the renal sinus is associated with chronic kidney disease and hypertension. The genetic contributions to renal sinus fat accumulation in humans have not been well characterized. Methods The present analysis consists of participants from the Framingham Offspring and Third Generation who underwent computed tomography; renal sinus fat and visceral adipose tissue (VAT were quantified. Renal sinus fat was natural log transformed and sex- and cohort-specific residuals were created, adjusted for (1 age, (2 age and body mass index (BMI, and (3 age and VAT. Residuals were pooled and used to calculate heritability using variance-components analysis in SOLAR. A genome-wide association study (GWAS for renal sinus fat was performed using an additive model with approximately 2.5 million imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs. Finally, we identified the associations of renal sinus fat in our GWAS results with validated SNPs for renal function (n = 16, BMI (n = 32, and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, n = 14, and applied a multi-SNP genetic risk score method to determine if the SNPs for each renal and obesity trait were in aggregate associated with renal sinus fat. Results The heritability of renal sinus fat was 39% (p Conclusions Renal sinus fat is a heritable trait, even after accounting for generalized and abdominal adiposity. This provides support for further research into the genetic determinants of renal sinus fat. While our study was underpowered to detect genome-wide significant loci, our candidate gene BMI risk score results suggest that variability in renal sinus fat may be associated with SNPs previously known to be associated with generalized adiposity.

  19. Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garofallo, Silvia Bueno; Machado, Daniel Pinheiro; Rodrigues, Clarissa Garcia; Bordim, Odemir; Kalil, Renato A. K.; Portal, Vera Lúcia

    2014-01-01

    Background The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe. Objective To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP). Methods Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP. Results Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus. Conclusion Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery. PMID:25004415

  20. Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garofallo, Silvia Bueno; Machado, Daniel Pinheiro; Rodrigues, Clarissa Garcia; Bordim, Odemir Jr.; Kalil, Renato A. K.; Portal, Vera Lúcia, E-mail: veraportal.pesquisa@gmail.com [Post-Graduation Program in Health Sciences: Cardiology, Instituto de Cardiologia/Fundação Universitária de Cardiologia, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

    2014-06-15

    The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe. To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP). Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP. Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus. Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.

  1. A 17-gene stemness score for rapid determination of risk in acute leukaemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Stanley W K; Mitchell, Amanda; Kennedy, James A; Chen, Weihsu C; McLeod, Jessica; Ibrahimova, Narmin; Arruda, Andrea; Popescu, Andreea; Gupta, Vikas; Schimmer, Aaron D; Schuh, Andre C; Yee, Karen W; Bullinger, Lars; Herold, Tobias; Görlich, Dennis; Büchner, Thomas; Hiddemann, Wolfgang; Berdel, Wolfgang E; Wörmann, Bernhard; Cheok, Meyling; Preudhomme, Claude; Dombret, Herve; Metzeler, Klaus; Buske, Christian; Löwenberg, Bob; Valk, Peter J M; Zandstra, Peter W; Minden, Mark D; Dick, John E; Wang, Jean C Y

    2016-12-15

    Refractoriness to induction chemotherapy and relapse after achievement of remission are the main obstacles to cure in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). After standard induction chemotherapy, patients are assigned to different post-remission strategies on the basis of cytogenetic and molecular abnormalities that broadly define adverse, intermediate and favourable risk categories. However, some patients do not respond to induction therapy and another subset will eventually relapse despite the lack of adverse risk factors. There is an urgent need for better biomarkers to identify these high-risk patients before starting induction chemotherapy, to enable testing of alternative induction strategies in clinical trials. The high rate of relapse in AML has been attributed to the persistence of leukaemia stem cells (LSCs), which possess a number of stem cell properties, including quiescence, that are linked to therapy resistance. Here, to develop predictive and/or prognostic biomarkers related to stemness, we generated a list of genes that are differentially expressed between 138 LSC(+) and 89 LSC(-) cell fractions from 78 AML patients validated by xenotransplantation. To extract the core transcriptional components of stemness relevant to clinical outcomes, we performed sparse regression analysis of LSC gene expression against survival in a large training cohort, generating a 17-gene LSC score (LSC17). The LSC17 score was highly prognostic in five independent cohorts comprising patients of diverse AML subtypes (n = 908) and contributed greatly to accurate prediction of initial therapy resistance. Patients with high LSC17 scores had poor outcomes with current treatments including allogeneic stem cell transplantation. The LSC17 score provides clinicians with a rapid and powerful tool to identify AML patients who do not benefit from standard therapy and who should be enrolled in trials evaluating novel upfront or post-remission strategies.

  2. A simplified clinical risk score predicts the need for early endoscopy in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tammaro, Leonardo; Buda, Andrea; Di Paolo, Maria Carla; Zullo, Angelo; Hassan, Cesare; Riccio, Elisabetta; Vassallo, Roberto; Caserta, Luigi; Anderloni, Andrea; Natali, Alessandro

    2014-09-01

    Pre-endoscopic triage of patients who require an early upper endoscopy can improve management of patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. To validate a new simplified clinical score (T-score) to assess the need of an early upper endoscopy in non variceal bleeding patients. Secondary outcomes were re-bleeding rate, 30-day bleeding-related mortality. In this prospective, multicentre study patients with bleeding who underwent upper endoscopy were enrolled. The accuracy for high risk endoscopic stigmata of the T-score was compared with that of the Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Overall, 602 patients underwent early upper endoscopy, and 472 presented with non-variceal bleeding. High risk endoscopic stigmata were detected in 145 (30.7%) cases. T-score sensitivity and specificity for high risk endoscopic stigmata and bleeding-related mortality was 96% and 30%, and 80% and 71%, respectively. No statistically difference in predicting high risk endoscopic stigmata between T-score and Glasgow Blatchford risk score was observed (ROC curve: 0.72 vs. 0.69, p=0.11). The two scores were also similar in predicting re-bleeding (ROC curve: 0.64 vs. 0.63, p=0.4) and 30-day bleeding-related mortality (ROC curve: 0.78 vs. 0.76, p=0.3). The T-score appeared to predict high risk endoscopic stigmata, re-bleeding and mortality with similar accuracy to Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Such a score may be helpful for the prediction of high-risk patients who need a very early therapeutic endoscopy. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk Pricing in Emerging Economies: Credit Scoring and Private Banking in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiannis Anagnostopoulos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Iran’s banking industry as a developing country is comparatively very new to risk management practices. An inevitable predictive implication of this rapid growth is the growing concerns with regard to credit risk management which is the motivation of conducting this research. The paper focuses on the credit scoring aspect of credit risk management using both logit and probit regression approaches. Real data on corporate customers are available for conducting this research which is also a contribution to this area for all other developing countries. Our questions focus on how future customers can be classified in terms of credibility, which models and methods are more effective in better capturing risks. Findings suggest that probit approaches are more effective in capturing the significance of variables and goodness-of-fitness tests. Seven variables of the Ohlson O-Score model are used: CL_CA, INTWO, OENEG, TA_TL, SIZE, WCAP_TA, and ROA; two were found to be statistically significant in logit (ROA, TL_TA and three were statistically significant in probit (ROA, TL_TA, SIZE. Also, CL_CA, ROA, and WCAP_TA were the three variables with an unexpected correlation to the probability of default. The prediction power with the cut-off point is set equal to 26% and 56.91% for defaulted customers in both logit and probit models. However, logit achieved 54.85% correct estimation of defaulted assets, 0.37% more than what probit estimated.

  4. Metabolic syndrome risk score and time expended in moderate to vigorous physical activity in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stabelini Neto, Antonio; de Campos, Wagner; Dos Santos, Géssika Castilho; Mazzardo Junior, Oldemar

    2014-02-14

    The clustering of metabolic syndrome risk factors is inversely related to the amount of physical activity. However, the question remains as to how much daily physical activity is enough to prevent the onset of metabolic disorders in adolescents? Therefore, the objectives of this study were to associate the metabolic risk score with the moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and to identify the amount of daily physical activity to prevent the onset of the metabolic risk factors in Brazilian adolescents. The study involved 391 participants aged 10 to 18 years. Physical activity was measured by accelerometry. The counts obtained in the different activities were transformed into metabolic equivalents and classified as light (≥ 1.5 but pressure, blood glucose, HDL-C and triglycerides. Time spent in MVPA was inversely associated with the continuous risk score for metabolic syndrome (p adolescents must perform at least 88 minutes per day of MVPA. These findings reinforce previous evidence that physical activity relates to metabolic syndrome in adolescents. This population should be encouraged to gradually replace part of their sedentary time with physical activities.

  5. Modified periodontal risk assessment score: long-term predictive value of treatment outcomes. A retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leininger, Matthieu; Tenenbaum, Henri; Davideau, Jean-Luc

    2010-05-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term clinical predictive value of the periodontal risk assessment diagram surface (PRAS) score and the influence of patient compliance on the treatment outcomes. Thirty subjects suffering from periodontitis were re-examined 6-12 years after the initial diagnosis and periodontal treatments. The baseline PRAS score was calculated from the initial clinical and radiograph records. Patients were then classified into a low-to-moderate (0-20) or a high-risk group (>20). Patients who did not attend any supportive periodontal therapy were classified into a non-compliant group. PRAS and compliance were correlated to the mean tooth loss (TL)/year and the mean variation in the number of periodontal pockets with a probing depth (PPD) >4 mm. TL was 0.11 for the low-to-moderate-risk group and 0.26 for the high-risk group (p<0.05); PPD number reduction was 2.57 and 2.17, respectively, and bleeding on probing reduction was 6.7% and 23.3%, respectively. Comparing the compliance groups, the PPD number reduction was 3.39 in the compliant group and 1.40 in the non-compliant group (p<0.05). This study showed the reliability of PRAS in evaluating long-term TL and patient susceptibility to periodontal disease. Our data confirmed the positive influence of patient compliance on periodontal treatment outcomes.

  6. Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Soucy, Penny; Healey, Sue; Dennis, Joe; Lush, Michael; Robson, Mark; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Ramus, Susan J.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Terry, Mary Beth; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Hamann, Ute; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M.; Chung, Wendy K.; Daly, Mary B.; Buys, Saundra S.; Goldgar, David E.; Dorfling, Cecilia M.; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J.; Ding, Yuan Chun; Ejlertsen, Bent; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Slager, Susan; Hallberg, Emily; Benitez, Javier; Osorio, Ana; Cohen, Nancy; Lawler, William; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Pensotti, Valeria; Dolcetti, Riccardo; Barile, Monica; Bonanni, Bernardo; Azzollini, Jacopo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Radice, Paolo; Savarese, Antonella; Papi, Laura; Giannini, Giuseppe; Fostira, Florentia; Konstantopoulou, Irene; Adlard, Julian; Brewer, Carole; Cook, Jackie; Davidson, Rosemarie; Eccles, Diana; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Frost, Debra; Hodgson, Shirley; Izatt, Louise; Lalloo, Fiona; Ong, Kai-ren; Godwin, Andrew K.; Arnold, Norbert; Dworniczak, Bernd; Engel, Christoph; Gehrig, Andrea; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Kast, Karin; Meindl, Alfons; Niederacher, Dieter; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Barjhoux, Laure; Collonge-Rame, Marie-Agnès; Elan, Camille; Golmard, Lisa; Barouk-Simonet, Emmanuelle; Lesueur, Fabienne; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Sokolowska, Joanna; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Isaacs, Claudine; Claes, Kathleen B. M.; Poppe, Bruce; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Nevanlinna, Heli; Ausems, Margreet G. E. M.; de Lange, J. L.; Gómez Garcia, Encarna B.; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Kets, Carolien M.; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E. J.; Oosterwijk, Jan C.; Rookus, Matti A.; van Asperen, Christi J.; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; van Doorn, Helena C.; van Os, Theo A. M.; Kwong, Ava; Olah, Edith; Diez, Orland; Brunet, Joan; Lazaro, Conxi; Teulé, Alex; Gronwald, Jacek; Jakubowska, Anna; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Lubinski, Jan; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Barkardottir, Rosa B.; Chiquette, Jocelyne; Agata, Simona; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R.; Park, Sue Kyung; Olswold, Curtis; Tischkowitz, Marc; Foretova, Lenka; Gaddam, Pragna; Vijai, Joseph; Pfeiler, Georg; Rappaport-Fuerhauser, Christine; Singer, Christian F.; Tea, Muy-Kheng M.; Greene, Mark H.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Rennert, Gad; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Hulick, Peter J.; Hays, John L.; Piedmonte, Marion; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Martyn, Julie; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Andrulis, Irene L.; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Kruse, Torben A.; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Thomassen, Mads; Caligo, Maria A.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Berger, Raanan; Friedman, Eitan; Laitman, Yael; Arver, Brita; Borg, Ake; Ehrencrona, Hans; Rantala, Johanna; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Ganz, Patricia A.; Nussbaum, Robert L.; Bradbury, Angela R.; Domchek, Susan M.; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Arun, Banu K.; James, Paul; Karlan, Beth Y.; Lester, Jenny; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Easton, Douglas F.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]–positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2×10−53). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2×10−20). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management. PMID

  7. Composite risk scores and composite endpoints in the risk prediction of outcomes in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation. The Loire Valley Atrial Fibrillation Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, A; Fauchier, L; Bernard-Brunet, A; Clementy, N; Lip, G Y H

    2014-03-01

    Several validated risk stratification schemes for prediction of ischaemic stroke (IS)/thromboembolism (TE) and major bleeding are available for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). On the basis for multiple common risk factors for IS/TE and bleeding, it has been suggested that composite risk prediction scores may be more practical and user-friendly than separate scores for bleeding and IS/TE. In a long-term prospective hospital registry of anticoagulated patients with newly diagnosed AF, we compared the predictive value of existing risk prediction scores as well as composite risk scores, and also compared these risk scoring systems using composite endpoints. Endpoint 1 was the simple composite of IS and major bleeds. Endpoint 2 was based on a composite of IS plus intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). Endpoint 3 was based on weighted coefficients for IS/TE and ICH. Endpoint 4 was a composite of stroke, cardiovascular death, TE and major bleeding. The incremental predictive value of these scores over CHADS2 (as reference) for composite endpoints was assessed using c-statistic, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Of 8,962 eligible individuals, 3,607 (40.2%) had NVAF and were on OAC at baseline. There were no statistically significant differences between the c-statistics of the various risk scores, compared with the CHADS2 score, regardless of the endpoint. For the various risk scores and various endpoints, NRI and IDI did not show significant improvement (≥1%), compared with the CHADS2 score. In conclusion, composite risk scores did not significantly improve risk prediction of endpoints in patients with NVAF, regardless of how endpoints were defined. This would support individualised prediction of IS/TE and bleeding separately using different separate risk prediction tools, and not the use of composite scores or endpoints for everyday 'real world' clinical practice, to guide decisions on

  8. MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT IN PICU USING PRISM-III-24 SCORE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harilal Naik

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Assessment of risk of mortality using PRISM III-24 score in children admitted to PICU of Basaweshwara Teaching and General Hospital, attached to Mahadevappa Rampure Medical College, Gulbarga. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. Setting: PICU of BTGH, Gulbarga. METHODS: 404 patients who had been admitted consecutively to the PICU during a period of 12 months (July 2011 to June 2012 were studied. PRISM III-24 score was calculated. Hospital outcome was recorded as survived/expired. Calibration and discrimination of the model was calculated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and Area under the ROC Curve. The association between r (empirical function and PRISM III-24 score was assessed by Binary Logistic Regression method. RESULTS: Out of 404 patients, 363 (89.85% survived and 41 (10.15% expired. Males formed the majority (227/404. CNS cases (n=118, 29.2% constituted the majority. Mean age, length of hospitalization, and mean PRISM III-24 score were 59.22±51.12 months, 99.84±91.61 hours, and 4.92±7.74 (range 0-36. The test was well designed for the study (goodness-of-fit value P-value 0.186. ROC analysis indicated a strong predictive power for the PRISM III-24 (AUC 0.936. The observed (O mortality rate was 10.15% and the expected (E mortality rate was 10.12% with an O/E ratio of 1.003. CONCLUSION: PRISM III-24 score is a good predictor of mortality in PICU patients under Indian circumstances. The PRISM III-24 scoring system was highly calibrated in our institute.

  9. Job level risk assessment using task level strain index scores: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drinkaus, Phillip; Bloswick, Donald S; Sesek, Richard; Mann, Clay; Bernard, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores 2 methods of modifying the Strain Index (SI) to assess the ergonomic risk of multi-task jobs. Twenty-eight automotive jobs (15 cases and 13 controls) were studied. The first method is based on the maximum task SI score, and the second method is modeled on the NIOSH Composite Lifting Index (CLI) algorithm, named cumulative assessment of risk to the distal upper extremity (CARD). Significant odds ratios of 11 (CI 1.7-69) and 24 (CI 2.4-240) were obtained using the modified maximum task and CARD, respectively. This indicates that modification of the SI may be useful in determining the risk of distal upper extremity injury associated with a multi-task job.

  10. Genetic risk scores link body fat distribution with specific cardiometabolic profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendstrup, Mathilde; Sandholt, Camilla H; Andersson Galijatovic, Ehm Astrid

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Forty-nine known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associating with body mass index (BMI)-adjusted waist-hip-ratio (WHR) (WHRadjBMI) were recently suggested to cluster into three groups with different associations to cardiometabolic traits. Genetic risk scores of the clusters......, including fasting serum triglyceride (β = 0.98% mmol/L, P = 3.33 × 10(-) (8) ) and Matsuda index (β = -0.74%, P = 1.29 × 10(-) (4) ). No similar associations for Clusters 2 and 3 were found. The three clusters showed different patterns of association with waist circumference, hip circumference, and height...... on the risk of incident diabetes and associations with detailed cardiometabolic phenotypes were tested. METHODS: In a prospective study of 6,121 Inter99 individuals, the risk of incident diabetes using Cox proportional hazards regression was evaluated. Using linear regession, the associations between genetic...

  11. Impact of malnutrition on pediatric risk of mortality score and outcome in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romi Nangalu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This study was done to determine the effect of malnutrition on mortality in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU and on the pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM scoring. Subjects and Methods: This was a prospective study done over 1 year. There were total 400 patients (1 month 14 years, who were divided into cases with weight for age <3 rd centile and controls with ≥3 rd centile of WHO charts. Cases were subdivided into mild/moderate (61-80% of expected weight for age and severe malnutrition (<60%. Results: Out of total, 38.5% patients were underweight, and malnutrition was more in infancy, 61/104, i.e. 58.5% (P - 0.003. There was no significant difference in vitals at admission. Cases needed prolonged mechanical ventilation (P - 0.0063 and hospital stay (P - 0.0332 compared to controls. Mean and median PRISM scores were comparable in both the groups, but mortality was significantly higher in severely malnourished (P value 0.027. Conclusion: Severe malnutrition is independently associated with higher mortality even with similar PRISM score. There is need to give an additional score to children with weight for age <60% of expected.

  12. The Cancer of the Bladder Risk Assessment (COBRA) score: Estimating mortality after radical cystectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welty, Christopher J; Sanford, Thomas H; Wright, Jonathan L; Carroll, Peter R; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Meng, Maxwell V; Porten, Sima P

    2017-09-07

    Risk stratification of patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) after cystectomy has important clinical and research implications. The authors assessed the relative effect of tumor stage and lymph node status on cancer-specific survival (CSS) after cystectomy and developed a simplified risk-assessment tool. In total, 14,828 patients who underwent cystectomy with lymph node dissection for UCB were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1988-2011). The relative importance of tumor stage and lymph node status with regard to CSS was assessed using stratified Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards analyses. The patients were split randomly into development and validation cohorts. Additional validation using overall survival was performed on 19,362 patients from the National Cancer Data Base. The Cancer of Bladder Risk Assessment (COBRA) tool was created using a Cox model incorporating age, tumor stage, and lymph node density. Performance was validated using observed versus expected survival plots and the Harrell concordance index. Patients with muscle invasive (T2), lymph node-positive disease had a survival curve similar to that in patients with extravesical (T3 and T4), lymph node-negative disease (2-year CSS, 67% and 70%, respectively). Each point increase in the COBRA score (range, 0-7) was associated with a 1.61-fold increase (95% confidence interval, 1.56-fold to 1.65-fold increase) in the risk of bladder cancer death in the development cohort. The model accurately stratified patients across risk levels in the development cohort and the 2 validation cohorts (C-index, 0.712, 0.705, and 0.68, respectively). The COBRA score offers a straightforward, validated risk-stratification tool that incorporates the relative contribution of tumor stage and lymph node involvement to patient prognosis after cystectomy for UCB. Cancer 2017. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  13. Inpatient Mortality Risk Scores and Postdischarge Events in Hospitalized Heart Failure Patients: A Community-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Win, Sithu; Hussain, Imad; Hebl, Virginia B; Dunlay, Shannon M; Redfield, Margaret M

    2017-07-01

    The Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) and Get With The Guidelines (GWTG) registries have developed simple heart failure (HF) in-hospital mortality risk scores. We hypothesized that HF scores predictive of in-hospital mortality would perform as well for early postdischarge mortality risk stratification. In this single-center, community-based, retrospective study of all consecutive primary HF hospitalizations (6203 hospitalizations in 3745 patients) from 2000 to 2013, the ADHERE and GWTG risk scores were calculated from admission data. There were 176 (3.0%) and 399 (6.7%), 869 (14.7%), and 1272 (21.5%) deaths in-hospital and at 30, 90, and 180 days postdischarge, respectively. The GWTG but not ADHERE risk score was well calibrated for in-hospital mortality. Both the ADHERE (C statistic 0.66 and 0.67, 0.64, and 0.64) and GWTG (C statistic 0.74 and 0.73, 0.71, and 0.70) HF risk scores were similarly predictive of in-hospital and 30-, 90-, and 180-day postdischarge mortality. The ADHERE risk score identified 10% and the GWTG risk score identified 20% of hospitalizations where 180-day postdischarge mortality was 50%, a prognostic bench mark for hospice referral. In contrast, hospitalizations characterized as lowest risk by the ADHERE (57% of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 16.2%) or GWTG score (20% of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 8.0%) had substantially lower mortality (odds ratios high versus low risk of 5-8 [ADHERE] and 11-18 [GWTG] across time points; P<0.0001 for all). The simple ADHERE and GWTG scores stratify hospitalized HF patients for both inpatient and early postdischarge mortality risk, allowing comprehensive risk assessment on admission. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  14. Risk scores to facilitate preoperative prediction of transfusion and large volume blood transfusion associated with adult cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goudie, R; Sterne, J A C; Verheyden, V; Bhabra, M; Ranucci, M; Murphy, G J

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this study was to develop two novel risk prediction scores for transfusion and bleeding that would be used to inform treatment decisions, quality assurance, and clinical trial design in cardiac surgery. Clinical data prospectively collected from 26 UK cardiac surgical centres and a single European centre were used to develop two risk prediction models: one for any red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, and the other for large volume blood transfusion (≥4 RBC units; LVBT), an index of severe blood loss. 'Complete case' data were available for 24 749 patients. Multiple imputation was used for missing covariate data (typically data set containing 39 970 patients. Risk models were developed in the complete case data set, with internal validation using leave-one-centre-out cross-validation. The final selected models were fitted to the imputed data set. Final risk scores were then compared with the performance of three existing scores: the Transfusion Risk and Clinical Knowledge score (TRACK), the Transfusion Risk Understanding Scoring Tool (TRUST), and the Papworth Bleeding Risk Score (BRiSc). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.77-0.77) for the any RBC transfusion score and AUC 0.80 (0.79-0.80) for the LVBT score in the imputed data set. The LVBT model also showed excellent discrimination (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.32). In the imputed data set, the AUCs for the TRACK and TRUST scores for any RBC transfusion were 0.71 and 0.71, respectively, and for LVBT the AUC for the BRiSc score was 0.69. Two new risk scores for any RBC transfusion or LVBT among cardiac surgery patients have excellent discrimination, and could inform clinical decision making. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Development of a Mediterranean diet score adapted to Japan and its relation to obesity risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masao Kanauchi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: The Mediterranean diet (MD is well known as a healthy diet that protects against several chronic diseases. However, there is no appropriate and easy index to assess adherence to the MD pattern in Japan. Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a novel instrument to measure MD adherence adapted to a Japanese diet and to examine its association with overweight/obesity risk. Methods: A cross-sectional nutritional survey provided the data for construction of a novel MD score. In total, 1,048 subjects who were employees and university students, aged 18–68 years (645 men and 403 women, completed a 58-item brief-type self-administered dietary history questionnaire. We constructed a Japanese-adapted MD score (jMD score focusing on 13 components. Adherence to the jMD was categorized as low (score 0–4, moderate (5–7, or high (8–13. Results: Men had higher jMD scores than women, and adherence to the jMD score increased with age. Only 11.6% of subjects showed high adherence to the jMD, whereas 29.6% showed low adherence. A higher jMD adherence was associated with a higher intake of favorable nutrients with the exception of salt. The jMD adherence was significantly associated with a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity for the highest category compared with lowest category (odds ratio [OR] 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30–0.85, p-trend=0.017 after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, and hypertension. A two-point increment in jMD score was related to a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity with an odds ratio of 0.76 (95% CI 0.65–0.90, p=0.002. Conclusions: Our novel jMD score confirmed reasonable associations with nutrient intakes, and higher MD adherence was associated with a lower prevalence of overweight/obesity.

  16. Development of a Mediterranean diet score adapted to Japan and its relation to obesity risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanauchi, Masao; Kanauchi, Kimiko

    2016-01-01

    The Mediterranean diet (MD) is well known as a healthy diet that protects against several chronic diseases. However, there is no appropriate and easy index to assess adherence to the MD pattern in Japan. The aim of this study was to develop a novel instrument to measure MD adherence adapted to a Japanese diet and to examine its association with overweight/obesity risk. A cross-sectional nutritional survey provided the data for construction of a novel MD score. In total, 1,048 subjects who were employees and university students, aged 18-68 years (645 men and 403 women), completed a 58-item brief-type self-administered dietary history questionnaire. We constructed a Japanese-adapted MD score (jMD score) focusing on 13 components. Adherence to the jMD was categorized as low (score 0-4), moderate (5-7), or high (8-13). Men had higher jMD scores than women, and adherence to the jMD score increased with age. Only 11.6% of subjects showed high adherence to the jMD, whereas 29.6% showed low adherence. A higher jMD adherence was associated with a higher intake of favorable nutrients with the exception of salt. The jMD adherence was significantly associated with a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity for the highest category compared with lowest category (odds ratio [OR] 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30-0.85, p-trend=0.017) after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, and hypertension. A two-point increment in jMD score was related to a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity with an odds ratio of 0.76 (95% CI 0.65-0.90, p=0.002). Our novel jMD score confirmed reasonable associations with nutrient intakes, and higher MD adherence was associated with a lower prevalence of overweight/obesity.

  17. Risk stratification in cardiovascular disease primary prevention - scoring systems, novel markers, and imaging techniques.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Zannad, Faiez

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to review and discuss current methods of risk stratification for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, emerging biomarkers, and imaging techniques, and their relative merits and limitations. This report is based on discussions that took place among experts in the area during a special CardioVascular Clinical Trialists workshop organized by the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Cardiovascular Pharmacology and Drug Therapy in September 2009. Classical risk factors such as blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels remain the cornerstone of risk estimation in primary prevention but their use as a guide to management is limited by several factors: (i) thresholds for drug treatment vary with the available evidence for cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-risk ratios; (ii) assessment may be imprecise; (iii) residual risk may remain, even with effective control of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Novel measures include C-reactive protein, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) , genetic markers, and markers of subclinical organ damage, for which there are varying levels of evidence. High-resolution ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging to assess carotid atherosclerotic lesions have potential but require further validation, standardization, and proof of clinical usefulness in the general population. In conclusion, classical risk scoring systems are available and inexpensive but have a number of limitations. Novel risk markers and imaging techniques may have a place in drug development and clinical trial design. However, their additional value above and beyond classical risk factors has yet to be determined for risk-guided therapy in CVD prevention.

  18. Pre-operative risk scores for the prediction of outcome in elderly people who require emergency surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bates Tom

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The decision on whether to operate on a sick elderly person with an intra-abdominal emergency is one of the most difficult in general surgery. A predictive risk-score would be of great value in this situation. Methods A Medline search was performed to identify those predictive risk-scores relevant to sick elderly patients in whom emergency surgery might be life-saving. Results Many of the risk scores for surgical patients include the operative findings or require tests which are not available in the acute situation. Most of the relevant studies include younger patients and elective surgery. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score and Hardman Index are specific to ruptured aortic aneurysm while the Boey Score and the Hacetteppe Score are specific to perforated peptic ulcer. The Reiss Index and Fitness Score can be used pre-operatively if the elements of the score can be completed in time. The ASA score, which includes a significant element of subjective clinical judgement, can be augmented with factors such as age and urgency of surgery but no test has a negative predictive value sufficient to recommend against surgical intervention without clinical input. Conclusion Risk scores may be helpful in sick elderly patients needing emergency abdominal surgery but an experienced clinical opinion is still essential.

  19. The Yale Observation Scale Score and the Risk of Serious Bacterial Infections in Febrile Infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigrovic, Lise E; Mahajan, Prashant V; Blumberg, Stephen M; Browne, Lorin R; Linakis, James G; Ruddy, Richard M; Bennett, Jonathan E; Rogers, Alexander J; Tzimenatos, Leah; Powell, Elizabeth C; Alpern, Elizabeth R; Casper, T Charles; Ramilo, Octavio; Kuppermann, Nathan

    2017-07-01

    To assess the performance of the Yale Observation Scale (YOS) score and unstructured clinician suspicion to identify febrile infants ≤60 days of age with and without serious bacterial infections (SBIs). We performed a planned secondary analysis of a prospective cohort of non-critically ill, febrile, full-term infants ≤60 days of age presenting to 1 of 26 participating emergency departments in the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network. We defined SBIs as urinary tract infections, bacteremia, or bacterial meningitis, with the latter 2 considered invasive bacterial infections. Emergency department clinicians applied the YOS (range: 6-30; normal score: ≤10) and estimated the risk of SBI using unstructured clinician suspicion (50%). Of the 4591 eligible infants, 444 (9.7%) had SBIs and 97 (2.1%) had invasive bacterial infections. Of the 4058 infants with YOS scores of ≤10, 388 (9.6%) had SBIs (sensitivity: 51/439 [11.6%]; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.8%-15.0%; negative predictive value: 3670/4058 [90.4%]; 95% CI: 89.5%-91.3%) and 72 (1.8%) had invasive bacterial infections (sensitivity 23/95 [24.2%], 95% CI: 16.0%-34.1%; negative predictive value: 3983/4055 [98.2%], 95% CI: 97.8%-98.6%). Of the infants with clinician suspicion of <1%, 106 had SBIs (6.4%) and 16 (1.0%) had invasive bacterial infections. In this large prospective cohort of febrile infants ≤60 days of age, neither the YOS score nor unstructured clinician suspicion reliably identified those with invasive bacterial infections. More accurate clinical and laboratory predictors are needed to risk stratify febrile infants. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  20. Risk stratification of non-contrast CT beyond the coronary calcium scan

    OpenAIRE

    Madaj, Paul; Budoff, Matthew J.

    2012-01-01

    Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a well-known marker for coronary artery disease and has important prognostic implications. CAC is able to provide clinicians with a reliable source of information related to cardiovascular atherosclerosis, which carries incremental information beyond Framingham risk. However, non-contrast scans of the heart provide additional information beyond the Agatston score. These studies are also able to measure various sources of fat, including intrathoracic (eg,...

  1. Cardiovascular risk prediction: the old has given way to the new but at what risk-benefit ratio?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeboah J

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Joseph Yeboah Heart and Vascular Center of Excellence, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA Abstract: The ultimate goal of cardiovascular risk prediction is to identify individuals in the population to whom the application or administration of current proven lifestyle modifications and medicinal therapies will result in reduction in cardiovascular disease events and minimal adverse effects (net benefit to society. The use of cardiovascular risk prediction tools dates back to 1976 when the Framingham coronary heart disease risk score was published. Since then a lot of novel risk markers have been identified and other cardiovascular risk prediction tools have been developed to either improve or replace the Framingham Risk Score (FRS. In 2013, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator was published by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association to replace the FRS for cardiovascular risk prediction. It is too soon to know the performance of the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator. The risk-benefit ratio for preventive therapy (lifestyle modifications, statin +/− aspirin based on cardiovascular disease risk assessed using the FRS is unknown but it was assumed to be a net benefit. Should we also assume the risk-benefit ratio for the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator is also a net benefit? Keywords: risk prediction, prevention, cardiovascular disease

  2. A score to predict short-term risk of COPD exacerbations (SCOPEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Make BJ

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Barry J Make,1 Göran Eriksson,2 Peter M Calverley,3 Christine R Jenkins,4 Dirkje S Postma,5 Stefan Peterson,6 Ollie Östlund,7 Antonio Anzueto8 1Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Denver, CO, USA; 2Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, University Hospital, Lund, Sweden; 3Pulmonary and Rehabilitation Research Group, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, UK; 4George Institute for Global Health, The University of Sydney and Concord Clinical School, Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 5Department of Pulmonology, University of Groningen and GRIAC Research Institute, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; 6StatMind AB, Lund, Sweden; 7Department of Medical Sciences and Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; 8Department of Pulmonary/Critical Care, University of Texas Health Sciences Center and South Texas Veterans Healthcare System, San Antonio, TX, USA Background: There is no clinically useful score to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD exacerbations. We aimed to derive this by analyzing data from three existing COPD clinical trials of budesonide/formoterol, formoterol, or placebo in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and a history of exacerbations in the previous year. Methods: Predictive variables were selected using Cox regression for time to first severe COPD exacerbation. We determined absolute risk estimates for an exacerbation by identifying variables in a binomial model, adjusting for observation time, study, and treatment. The model was further reduced to clinically useful variables and the final regression coefficients scaled to obtain risk scores of 0–100 to predict an exacerbation within 6 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves and the corresponding C-index were used to investigate the discriminatory

  3. Cardiovascular risk factors and estimated 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular events using various equations in Greeks with metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chimonas, Theodoros; Athyros, Vassilios G; Ganotakis, Emmanouel; Nicolaou, Vassilios; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Mikhailidis, Dimitri P; Elisaf, Moses

    2010-01-01

    We investigated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in 1501 Greeks (613 men and 888 women, aged 40-65 years) referred to outpatients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and without diabetes mellitus or CVD. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD events was calculated using European Society of Cardiology Systematic Coronary Risk Estimation (ESC SCORE), Hellenic-SCORE, and Framingham equations. Raised blood pressure (BP) and hypertriglyceridemia were more common in men (89.6% vs 84.2% and 86.8% vs 74.2%, respectively; P < .001). Low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and abdominal obesity were more common in women (58.2% vs 66.2% and 85.8% vs 97.1%, respectively; P < .001). The 10-year risk of fatal CVD events using HellenicSCORE was higher in men (6.3% +/- 4.3% vs 2.7% +/- 2.1%; P < .001). European Society of Cardiology Systematic Coronary Risk Estimation and Framingham yielded similar results. The risk equations gave similar assessments in a European Mediterranean population except for HellenicSCORE that calculated more MetS women requiring risk modification. This might justify local risk engine evaluation in event-based studies. (Clinical-Trials.gov ID: NCT00416741).

  4. Quantitative assessment of abdominal aortic calcification and associations with lumbar intervertebral disc height loss: the Framingham Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suri, Pradeep; Hunter, David J; Rainville, James; Guermazi, Ali; Katz, Jeffrey N

    2012-04-01

    Vascular disease has been proposed as a risk factor for disc height loss (DHL). To examine the relationship between quantitative measures of abdominal aortic calcifications (AACs) as a marker of vascular disease, and DHL, on computed tomography (CT). Cross-sectional study in a community-based population. Four hundred thirty-five participants from the Framingham Heart Study. Quantitative AAC scores assessed by CT were grouped as tertiles of "no" (reference), "low," and "high" calcification. Disc height loss was evaluated on CT reformations using a four-grade scale. For analytic purposes, DHL was dichotomized as moderate DHL of at least one level at L2-S1 versus less than moderate or no DHL. We examined the association of AAC and DHL using logistic regression before and after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors and before and after adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index (BMI). In crude analyses, low AAC (odds ratio [OR], 2.05 [1.27-3.30]; p=.003) and high AAC (OR, 2.24 [1.38-3.62]; p=.001) were strongly associated with DHL, when compared with the reference group of no AAC. Diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and smoking were not associated with DHL and did not attenuate the observed relationship between AAC and DHL. Adjustment for age, sex, and BMI markedly attenuated the associations between DHL and low AAC (OR, 1.20 [0.69-2.09]; p=.51) and high AAC (OR, 0.74 [0.36-1.53]; p=.42). Abdominal aortic calcification was associated with DHL in this community-based population. This relationship was independent of cardiovascular risk factors. However, the association of AAC with DHL was explained by the effects of age, sex, and BMI. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Forecasting Latin America’s Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Cervelló-Royo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, worldwide financial market instability has shaken confidence in global economies. Global financial crisis and changes in sovereign debts ratings have affected the Latin American financial markets and their economies. However, Latin American’s relative resilience to the more acute rise in risk seen in other regions like Europe during last years is offering investors new options for improving risk-return trade-offs. Therefore, forecasting the future of economic situation involves high levels of uncertainty. The Country Risk Score (CRS represents a broadly used indicator to measure the current situation of a country regarding measures of economic, political, and financial risk in order to determine country risk ratings. In this contribution, we present a diffusion model to study the dynamics of the CRS in 18 Latin American countries which considers both the endogenous effect of each country policies and the contagion effect among them. The model predicts quite well the evolution of the CRS in the short term despite the economic and political instability. Furthermore, the model reproduces and forecasts a slight increasing trend, on average, in the CRS dynamics for almost all Latin American countries over the next months.

  6. Tuberculosis and risk of acute myocardial infarction: a propensity score-matched analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huaman, M A; Kryscio, R J; Fichtenbaum, C J; Henson, D; Salt, E; Sterling, T R; Garvy, B A

    2017-05-01

    Several pathogens have been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Whether this occurs with Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection is unclear. We assessed if tuberculosis disease increased the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We identified patients with tuberculosis index claims from a large de-identified database of ~15 million adults enrolled in a U.S. commercial insurance policy between 2008 and 2010. Tuberculosis patients were 1:1 matched to patients without tuberculosis claims using propensity scores. We compared the occurrence of index AMI claims between the tuberculosis and non-tuberculosis cohorts using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox Proportional Hazard models. Data on 2026 patients with tuberculosis and 2026 propensity-matched patients without tuberculosis were included. AMI was more frequent in the tuberculosis cohort compared with the non-tuberculosis cohort, 67 (3·3%) vs. 32 (1·6%) AMI cases, respectively, P Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1·98, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1·3-3·0). The results were similar when the analysis was restricted to pulmonary tuberculosis (adjusted HR 2·43, 95% CI 1·5-4·1). Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI. CVD risk assessment should be considered in tuberculosis patients. Mechanistic studies of tuberculosis and CVD are warranted.

  7. A modified HEART risk score in chest pain patients with suspected non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chun-Peng MA; Xiao WANG; Qing-Sheng WANG; Xiao-Li LIU; Xiao-Nan HE; Shao-Ping NIE

    2016-01-01

    ObjectiveTo validate a modified HEART [History, Electrocardiograph (ECG), Age, Risk factors and Troponin] risk score in chest pain patients with suspected non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) in the emergency department (ED).Methods This retrospective cohort study used a prospectively acquired database and chest pain patients admitted to the emergency department with suspected NSTE-ACS were enrolled. Data recorded on arrival at the ED were used. The serum sample of high-sensitivity cardiac Troponin I other than conventional cardiac Troponin I used in the HEART risk score was tested. The modified HEART risk score was calculated. The end point was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) defined as a composite of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), percu-taneous intervention (PCI), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), or all-cause death, within three months after initial presentation.Results A total of 1,300 patients were enrolled. A total of 606 patients (46.6%) had a MACE within three months: 205 patients (15.8%) were diag-nosed with AMI, 465 patients (35.8%) underwent PCI, and 119 patients (9.2%) underwent CABG. There were 10 (0.8%) deaths. A progres-sive, significant pattern of increasing event rate was observed as the score increased (P < 0.001 byχ2 for trend). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.84. All patients were classified into three groups: low risk (score 0–2), intermediate risk (score 3–4), and high risk (score 5–10). Event rates were 1.1%, 18.5%, and 67.0%, respectively (P < 0.001).ConclusionsThe modified HEART risk score was validated in chest pain patients with suspected NSTE-ACS and may complement MACE risk assessment and patients triage in the ED. A prospective study of the score is warranted.

  8. Interactions of Lipid Genetic Risk Scores with Estimates of Metabolic Health in a Danish Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Johanne M; Allin, Kristine H; Sandholt, Camilla H

    2015-01-01

    Background—There are several well-established lifestyle factors influencing dyslipidemia and currently; 157 genetic susceptibility loci have been reported to be associated with serum lipid levels at genome-wide statistical significance. However, the interplay between lifestyle risk factors...... and these susceptibility loci has not been fully elucidated. We tested whether genetic risk scores (GRS) of lipid-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms associate with fasting serum lipid traits and whether the effects are modulated by lifestyle factors or estimates of metabolic health. Methods and Results—The single......-cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, or triglyceride, 4 weighted GRS were constructed. In a cross-sectional design, we investigated whether the effect of these weighted GRSs on lipid levels were modulated by diet, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and smoking or the individual metabolic health...

  9. Multilocus genetic risk score associates with ischemic stroke in case-control and prospective cohort studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, R; Bevan, S; Nalls, MA; Holliday, EG; Devan, WJ; Cheng, YC; Ibrahim-Verbaas, CA; Verhaaren, BF; Bis, JC; Joon, AY; de Stefano, AL; Fornage, M; Psaty, BM; Ikram, MA; Launer, LJ; van Duijn, CM; Sharma, P; Mitchell, BD; Rosand, J; Meschia, JF; Levi, C; Rothwell, PM; Sudlow, C; Markus, HS; Seshadri, S; Dichgans, M

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Genome-wide association studies have revealed multiple common variants associated with known risk factors for ischemic stroke (IS). However, their aggregate effect on risk is uncertain. We aimed to generate a multilocus genetic risk score (GRS) for IS based on genome-wide association studies data from clinical-based samples and to establish its external validity in prospective population-based cohorts. METHODS Three thousand five hundred forty-eight clinic-based IS cases and 6399 controls from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 2 were used for derivation of the GRS. Subjects from the METASTROKE consortium served as a replication sample. The validation sample consisted of 22 751 participants from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium. We selected variants that had reached genome-wide significance in previous association studies on established risk factors for IS. RESULTS A combined GRS for atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, hypertension, and systolic blood pressure significantly associated with IS both in the case-control samples and in the prospective population-based studies. Subjects in the top quintile of the combined GRS had >2-fold increased risk of IS compared with subjects in the lowest quintile. Addition of the combined GRS to a simple model based on sex significantly improved the prediction of IS in the combined clinic-based samples but not in the population-based studies, and there was no significant improvement in net reclassification. CONCLUSIONS A multilocus GRS based on common variants for established cardiovascular risk factors was significantly associated with IS both in clinic-based samples and in the general population. However, the improvement in clinical risk prediction was found to be small. PMID:24436234

  10. Prediction of Breast and Prostate Cancer Risks in Male BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers Using Polygenic Risk Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecarpentier, Julie; Silvestri, Valentina; Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B; Barrowdale, Daniel; Dennis, Joe; McGuffog, Lesley; Soucy, Penny; Leslie, Goska; Rizzolo, Piera; Navazio, Anna Sara; Valentini, Virginia; Zelli, Veronica; Lee, Andrew; Amin Al Olama, Ali; Tyrer, Jonathan P; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M; Conner, Thomas A; Goldgar, David E; Buys, Saundra S; Janavicius, Ramunas; Steele, Linda; Ding, Yuan Chun; Neuhausen, Susan L; Hansen, Thomas V O; Osorio, Ana; Weitzel, Jeffrey N; Toss, Angela; Medici, Veronica; Cortesi, Laura; Zanna, Ines; Palli, Domenico; Radice, Paolo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Azzollini, Jacopo; Viel, Alessandra; Cini, Giulia; Damante, Giuseppe; Tommasi, Stefania; Peterlongo, Paolo; Fostira, Florentia; Hamann, Ute; Evans, D Gareth; Henderson, Alex; Brewer, Carole; Eccles, Diana; Cook, Jackie; Ong, Kai-Ren; Walker, Lisa; Side, Lucy E; Porteous, Mary E; Davidson, Rosemarie; Hodgson, Shirley; Frost, Debra; Adlard, Julian; Izatt, Louise; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Tischkowitz, Marc; Godwin, Andrew K; Meindl, Alfons; Gehrig, Andrea; Dworniczak, Bernd; Sutter, Christian; Engel, Christoph; Niederacher, Dieter; Steinemann, Doris; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Rhiem, Kerstin; Kast, Karin; Arnold, Norbert; Ditsch, Nina; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Wand, Dorothea; Lasset, Christine; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Belotti, Muriel; Damiola, Francesca; Barjhoux, Laure; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Van Heetvelde, Mattias; Poppe, Bruce; De Leeneer, Kim; Claes, Kathleen B M; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Caldes, Trinidad; Perez Segura, Pedro; Kiiski, Johanna I; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Khan, Sofia; Nevanlinna, Heli; van Asperen, Christi J; Vaszko, Tibor; Kasler, Miklos; Olah, Edith; Balmaña, Judith; Gutiérrez-Enríquez, Sara; Diez, Orland; Teulé, Alex; Izquierdo, Angel; Darder, Esther; Brunet, Joan; Del Valle, Jesús; Feliubadalo, Lidia; Pujana, Miquel Angel; Lazaro, Conxi; Arason, Adalgeir; Agnarsson, Bjarni A; Johannsson, Oskar Th; Barkardottir, Rosa B; Alducci, Elisa; Tognazzo, Silvia; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R; Pinto, Pedro; Spurdle, Amanda B; Holland, Helene; Lee, Jong Won; Lee, Min Hyuk; Lee, Jihyoun; Kim, Sung-Won; Kang, Eunyoung; Kim, Zisun; Sharma, Priyanka; Rebbeck, Timothy R; Vijai, Joseph; Robson, Mark; Lincoln, Anne; Musinsky, Jacob; Gaddam, Pragna; Tan, Yen Y; Berger, Andreas; Singer, Christian F; Loud, Jennifer T; Greene, Mark H; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Glendon, Gord; Andrulis, Irene L; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Senter, Leigha; Bojesen, Anders; Nielsen, Henriette Roed; Skytte, Anne-Bine; Sunde, Lone; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Krogh, Lotte; Kruse, Torben A; Caligo, Maria A; Yoon, Sook-Yee; Teo, Soo-Hwang; von Wachenfeldt, Anna; Huo, Dezheng; Nielsen, Sarah M; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I; Nathanson, Katherine L; Domchek, Susan M; Lorenchick, Christa; Jankowitz, Rachel C; Campbell, Ian; James, Paul; Mitchell, Gillian; Orr, Nick; Park, Sue Kyung; Thomassen, Mads; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J; Simard, Jacques; Easton, Douglas F; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Schmutzler, Rita K; Antoniou, Antonis C; Ottini, Laura

    2017-07-10

    Purpose BRCA1/2 mutations increase the risk of breast and prostate cancer in men. Common genetic variants modify cancer risks for female carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations. We investigated-for the first time to our knowledge-associations of common genetic variants with breast and prostate cancer risks for male carriers of BRCA1/ 2 mutations and implications for cancer risk prediction. Materials and Methods We genotyped 1,802 male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 by using the custom Illumina OncoArray. We investigated the combined effects of established breast and prostate cancer susceptibility variants on cancer risks for male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations by constructing weighted polygenic risk scores (PRSs) using published effect estimates as weights. Results In male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations, PRS that was based on 88 female breast cancer susceptibility variants was associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio per standard deviation of PRS, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.56; P = 8.6 × 10(-6)). Similarly, PRS that was based on 103 prostate cancer susceptibility variants was associated with prostate cancer risk (odds ratio per SD of PRS, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.35 to 1.81; P = 3.2 × 10(-9)). Large differences in absolute cancer risks were observed at the extremes of the PRS distribution. For example, prostate cancer risk by age 80 years at the 5th and 95th percentiles of the PRS varies from 7% to 26% for carriers of BRCA1 mutations and from 19% to 61% for carriers of BRCA2 mutations, respectively. Conclusion PRSs may provide informative cancer risk stratification for male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations that might enable these men and their physicians to make informed decisions on the type and timing of breast and prostate cancer risk management.

  11. Application of a Propensity Score Approach for Risk Adjustment in Profiling Multiple Physician Groups on Asthma Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, I-Chan; Frangakis, Constantine; Dominici, Francesca; Diette, Gregory B; Wu, Albert W

    2005-01-01

    Objectives To develop a propensity score-based risk adjustment method to estimate the performance of 20 physician groups and to compare performance rankings using our method to a standard hierarchical regression-based risk adjustment method. Data Sources/Study Setting Mailed survey of patients from 20 California physician groups between July 1998 and February 1999. Study Design A cross-sectional analysis of physician group performance using patient satisfaction with asthma care. We compared the performance of the 20 physician groups using a novel propensity score-based risk adjustment method. More specifically, by using a multinomial logistic regression model we estimated for each patient the propensity scores, or probabilities, of having been treated by each of the 20 physician groups. To adjust for different distributions of characteristics across groups, patients cared for by a given group were first stratified into five strata based on their propensity of being in that group. Then, strata-specific performance was combined across the five strata. We compared our propensity score method to hierarchical model-based risk adjustment without using propensity scores. The impact of different risk-adjustment methods on performance was measured in terms of percentage changes in absolute and quintile ranking (AR, QR), and weighted κ of agreement on QR. Results The propensity score-based risk adjustment method balanced the distributions of all covariates among the 20 physician groups, providing evidence for validity. The propensity score-based method and the hierarchical model-based method without propensity scores provided substantially different rankings (75 percent of groups differed in AR, 50 percent differed in QR, weighted κ=0.69). Conclusions We developed and tested a propensity score method for profiling multiple physician groups. We found that our method could balance the distributions of covariates across groups and yielded substantially different profiles

  12. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Version 3.0 Mathematical Description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used to determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

  13. A risk-scoring scheme for suicide attempts among patients with bipolar disorder in a Thai patient cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patumanond J

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Chidchanok Ruengorn1,2, Kittipong Sanichwankul3, Wirat Niwatananun2, Suwat Mahatnirunkul3, Wanida Pumpaisalchai3, Jayanton Patumanond11Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 2Department of Pharmaceutical Care, Faculty of Pharmacy, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 3Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital, Chiang Mai, ThailandBackground: In Thailand, risk factors associated with suicide attempts in bipolar disorder (BD are rarely investigated, nor has a specific risk-scoring scheme to assist in the identification of BD patients at risk for attempting suicide been proposed.Objective: To develop a simple risk-scoring scheme to identify patients with BD who may be at risk for attempting suicide.Methods: Medical files of 489 patients diagnosed with BD at Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital between October 2006 and May 2009 were reviewed. Cases included BD patients hospitalized due to attempted suicide (n = 58, and seven controls were selected (per suicide case among BD in- and out-patients who did not attempt suicide, with patients being visited the same day or within 1 week of case study (n = 431. Broad sociodemographic and clinical factors were gathered and analyzed using multivariate logistic regression, to obtain a set of risk factors. Scores for each indicator were weighted, assigned, and summed to create a total risk score, which was divided into low, moderate, and high-risk suicide attempt groups.Results: Six statistically significant indicators associated with suicide attempts were included in the risk-scoring scheme: depression, psychotic symptom(s, number of previous suicide attempts, stressful life event(s, medication adherence, and BD treatment years. A total risk score (possible range -1.5 to 11.5 explained an 88.6% probability of suicide attempts based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Likelihood ratios of suicide attempts with low risk scores (below 2

  14. Mortality risk score prediction in an elderly population using machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri

    2013-03-01

    Standard practice for prediction often relies on parametric regression methods. Interesting new methods from the machine learning literature have been introduced in epidemiologic studies, such as random forest and neural networks. However, a priori, an investigator will not know which algorithm to select and may wish to try several. Here I apply the super learner, an ensembling machine learning approach that combines multiple algorithms into a single algorithm and returns a prediction function with the best cross-validated mean squared error. Super learning is a generalization of stacking methods. I used super learning in the Study of Physical Performance and Age-Related Changes in Sonomans (SPPARCS) to predict death among 2,066 residents of Sonoma, California, aged 54 years or more during the period 1993-1999. The super learner for predicting death (risk score) improved upon all single algorithms in the collection of algorithms, although its performance was similar to that of several algorithms. Super learner outperformed the worst algorithm (neural networks) by 44% with respect to estimated cross-validated mean squared error and had an R2 value of 0.201. The improvement of super learner over random forest with respect to R2 was approximately 2-fold. Alternatives for risk score prediction include the super learner, which can provide improved performance.

  15. Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet pattern scores and risk of incident, sporadic colorectal adenomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalen, Kristine A; McCullough, Marji; Flanders, W Dana; Hartman, Terryl J; Judd, Suzanne; Bostick, Roberd M

    2014-12-01

    The Western dietary pattern is associated with higher risk of colorectal neoplasms. Evolutionary discordance could explain this association. We investigated associations of scores for 2 proposed diet patterns, the "Paleolithic" and the Mediterranean, with incident, sporadic colorectal adenomas in a case-control study of colorectal polyps conducted in Minnesota (1991-1994). Persons with no prior history of colorectal neoplasms completed comprehensive questionnaires prior to elective, outpatient endoscopy; of these individuals, 564 were identified as cases and 1,202 as endoscopy-negative controls. An additional group of community controls frequency-matched on age and sex (n = 535) was also recruited. Both diet scores were calculated for each participant and categorized into quintiles, and associations were estimated using unconditional logistic regression. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios comparing persons in the highest quintiles of the Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet scores relative to the lowest quintiles were, respectively, 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50, 1.02; Ptrend = 0.02) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.54, 1.03; Ptrend = 0.05) when comparing cases with endoscopy-negative controls and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.26; Ptrend = 0.14) and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.53, 1.11; Ptrend = 0.13) when comparing cases with community controls. These findings suggest that greater adherence to the Paleolithic diet pattern and greater adherence to the Mediterranean diet pattern may be similarly associated with lower risk of incident, sporadic colorectal adenomas. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Validation of the Korean Version of the Lewy Body Composite Risk Score (K-LBCRS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Hui Jin; Kim, Minyoung; Moon, Yeonsil; Choi, Yeji; Han, Jee-Young; Galvin, James E; Han, Seol-Heui

    2017-01-01

    The Lewy body composite risk score (LBCRS) is a useful clinical screening tool to help determine whether the dementia is related to Lewy body pathology. The purpose of this study is to verify reliability, validity, and diagnostic usefulness of Korean version of LBCRS (K-LBCRS). CDR-sum of boxes, Mini-Mental State Examination, and standardized scales related to cognition, mood, behavior, and motor function were administered to a total of 107 subjects, including 30 dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), 54 Alzheimer's disease (AD), and 23 cognitively normal elderly people and their collateral informants. Internal consistency of the K-LBCRS was good with Cronbach's alpha of 0.85, and concurrent validity was also satisfactory, with K-LBCRS correlating highly with CDR-SB and other scales. The test-retest reliability was very high with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.97. The mean scores of K-LBCRS were significantly different among three groups, with DLB (6.2±2.4), AD (1.4±1.3), and controls (0.3±0.6). We identified a cut-off score of 3 as best to differentiate between DLB and AD, having AUC of 0.97 (95% CI 0.94-1.00), sensitivity 97%, specificity 83%, positive predictive value 76%, negative predictive value 98%, which is the same score suggested in the original study. This study shows K-LBCRS as a new useful screening tool for Korean DLB patients in clinical settings.

  17. Association between genetic risk scoring for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder with regional subcortical volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caseras, X; Tansey, K E; Foley, S; Linden, D

    2015-01-01

    Previous research has shown coincident abnormal regional brain volume in patients with schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) compared with controls. Whether these abnormalities are genetically driven or explained by secondary effects of the disorder or environmental factors is unknown. We aimed to investigate the association between genetic risk scoring (GRS) for SCZ and BD with volume of brain areas previously shown to be different between these clinical groups and healthy controls. We obtained subcortical brain volume measures and GRS for SCZ and BD from a sample of 274 healthy volunteers (71.4% females, mean age 24.7 (s.d. 6.9)). Volume of the globus pallidus was associated with the shared GRS between SCZ and BD, and also with the independent GRS for each of these disorders. Volume of the amygdala was associated with the non-shared GRS between SCZ and BD, and with the independent GRS for BD. Our results for volume of the globus pallidus support the idea of SCZ and BD sharing a common underlying neurobiological abnormality associated with a common genetic risk for both these disorders. Results for volume of the amygdala, though, would suggest the existence of a distinct mechanism only associated with genetic risk for BD. Finally, the lack of association between genetic risk and volume of most subcortical structures suggests that the volumetric differences reported in patient–control comparisons may not be genetically driven, but a consequence of the disorder or co-occurring environmental factors. PMID:26645627

  18. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  19. Serum urate gene associations with incident gout, measured in the Framingham Heart Study, are modified by renal disease and not by body mass index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Richard J; Vazquez, Ana I; Srinivasasainagendra, Vinodh; Klimentidis, Yann C; Bridges, S Louis; Allison, David B; Singh, Jasvinder A

    2016-02-01

    We hypothesized that serum urate-associated SNPs, individually or collectively, interact with BMI and renal disease to contribute to risk of incident gout. We measured the incidence of gout and associated comorbidities using the original and offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study. We used direct and imputed genotypes for eight validated serum urate loci. We fit binomial regression models of gout incidence as a function of the covariates, age, type 2 diabetes, sex, and all main and interaction effects of the eight serum urate SNPs with BMI and renal disease. Models were also fit with a genetic risk score for serum urate levels which corresponds to the sum of risk alleles at the eight SNPs. Model covariates, age (P = 5.95E-06), sex (P = 2.46E-39), diabetes (P = 2.34E-07), BMI (P = 1.14E-11) and the SNPs, rs1967017 (P = 9.54E-03), rs13129697 (P = 4.34E-07), rs2199936 (P = 7.28E-03) and rs675209 (P = 4.84E-02) were all associated with incident gout. No BMI by SNP or BMI by serum urate genetic risk score interactions were statistically significant, but renal disease by rs1106766 was statistically significant (P = 6.12E-03). We demonstrated that minor alleles of rs1106766 (intergenic, INHBC) were negatively associated with the risk of incident gout in subjects without renal disease, but not for individuals with renal disease. These analyses demonstrate that a significant component of the risk of gout may involve complex interplay between genes and environment.

  20. Serum urate gene associations with incident gout, measured in the Framingham Heart Study, are modified by renal disease and not by body mass index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Richard J.; Vazquez, Ana I.; Srinivasasainagendra, Vinodh; Klimentidis, Yann C.; Bridges, S. Louis; Allison, David B.; Singh, Jasvinder A.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction/objectives We hypothesized that serum urate-associated SNPs, individually or collectively, interact with BMI and renal disease to contribute to risk for incident gout. Method We measured the incidence of gout and associated comorbidities using the Original and Offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study. We used direct and imputed genotypes for eight validated serum urate loci. We fit binomial regression models of gout incidence as a function of the covariates, age, type 2 diabetes, sex, and all main and interaction effects of the eight serum urate SNPs with BMI and renal disease. Models were also fit with a genetic risk score for serum urate levels which corresponds to the sum of risk alleles at the 8 SNPs. Results Model covariates, age (P = 5.95E-06), sex (P = 2.46E-39), diabetes (P = 2.34E-07), BMI (P = 1.14E-11) and the SNPs, rs1967017 (P = 9.54E-03), rs13129697 (P = 4.34E-07), rs2199936 (P = 7.28E-03) and rs675209 (P = 4.84E-02) were all associated with incident gout. No BMI by SNP or BMI by serum urate genetic risk score (GRS) interactions were statistically significant, but renal disease by rs1106766 was statistically significant (P=6.12E-03). Conclusions We demonstrated that minor alleles of rs1106766 (intergenic, INHBC) were negatively associated with the risk of incident gout in subjects without renal disease, but not for individuals with renal disease. These analyses demonstrate that a significant component of the risk for gout may involve complex interplay between genes and environment. PMID:26427508

  1. Racial discrimination & cardiovascular disease risk: my body my story study of 1005 US-born black and white community health center participants (US).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Nancy; Waterman, Pamela D; Kosheleva, Anna; Chen, Jarvis T; Smith, Kevin W; Carney, Dana R; Bennett, Gary G; Williams, David R; Thornhill, Gisele; Freeman, Elmer R

    2013-01-01

    To date, limited and inconsistent evidence exists regarding racial discrimination and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Cross-sectional observational study of 1005 US-born non-Hispanic black (n = 504) and white (n = 501) participants age 35-64 randomly selected from community health centers in Boston, MA (2008-2010; 82.4% response rate), using 3 racial discrimination measures: explicit self-report; implicit association test (IAT, a time reaction test for self and group as target vs. perpetrator of discrimination); and structural (Jim Crow status of state of birth, i.e. legal racial discrimination prior 1964). Black and white participants both had adverse cardiovascular and socioeconomic profiles, with black participants most highly exposed to racial discrimination. Positive crude associations among black participants occurred for Jim Crow birthplace and hypertension (odds ratio (OR) 1.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28, 2.89) and for explicit self-report and the Framingham 10 year CVD risk score (beta = 0.04; 95% CI 0.01, 0.07); among white participants, only negative crude associations existed (for IAT for self, for lower systolic blood pressure (SBP; beta = -4.86; 95% CI -9.08, -0.64) and lower Framingham CVD score (beta = -0.36, 95% CI -0.63, -0.08)). All of these associations were attenuated and all but the white IAT-Framingham risk score association were rendered null in analyses that controlled for lifetime socioeconomic position and additional covariates. Controlling for racial discrimination, socioeconomic position, and other covariates did not attenuate the crude black excess risk for SBP and hypertension and left unaffected the null excess risk for the Framingham CVD score. Despite worse exposures among the black participants, racial discrimination and socioeconomic position were not associated, in multivariable analyses, with risk of CVD. We interpret results in relation to constrained variability of exposures and outcomes and discuss implications

  2. A competing risk approach for the European Heart SCORE model based on cause-specific and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støvring, Henrik; Harmsen, Charlotte G; Wisløff, Torbjørn;

    2013-01-01

    pressure, and total cholesterol level. The SCORE model, however, is not mathematically consistent and does not estimate all-cause mortality. Our aim is to modify the SCORE model to allow consistent estimation of both CVD-specific and all-cause mortality. Methods: Using a competing risk approach, we first...

  3. An obesity genetic risk score is associated with metabolic syndrome in Chinese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaoyuan; Xi, Bo; Shen, Yue; Wu, Lijun; Hou, Dongqing; Cheng, Hong; Mi, Jie

    2014-02-10

    Recent genome-wide association studies have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with body mass index (BMI)/obesity. In this study, we aim to examine the associations of obesity related loci with risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a children population from China. A total of 431 children with MetS and 3046 controls were identified based on the modified ATPIII definition. 11 SNPs (FTO rs9939609, MC4R rs17782313, GNPDA2 rs10938397, BDNF rs6265, FAIM2 rs7138803, NPC1 rs1805081, SEC16B rs10913469, SH2B1 rs4788102, PCSK1rs6235, KCTD15 rs29941, BAT2 rs2844479) were genotyped by TaqMan 7900. Of 11 SNPs, GNPDA2 rs10938397, BDNF rs6265, and FAIM2 rs7138803 were nominally associated with risk of MetS (GNPDA2 rs10938397: odds ratio (OR)=1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.04-1.40, P=0.016; BDNF rs6265: OR=1.19, 95% CI=1.03-1.39, P=0.021; FAIM2 rs7138803: OR=1.20, 95% CI=1.02-1.40, P=0.025); genetic risk score (GRS) was significantly associated with risk of MetS (OR=1.09, 95% CI=1.04-1.15, P=5.26×10(-4)). After further adjustment for BMI, none of SNPs were associated with risk of MetS (all P>0.05); the association between GRS and risk of MetS remained nominally (OR=1.02, 95%CI=0.96-1.08, P=0.557). However, after correction for multiple testing, only GRS was statistically associated with risk of MetS in the model without adjustment for BMI. The present study demonstrated that there were nominal associations of GNPDA2 rs10938397, BDNF rs6265, and FAIM2 rs7138803 with risk of MetS. The SNPs in combination have a significant effect on risk of MetS among Chinese children. These associations above were mediated by adiposity.

  4. Twelve-single nucleotide polymorphism genetic risk score identifies individuals at increased risk for future atrial fibrillation and stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tada, Hayato; Shiffman, Dov; Smith, J Gustav; Sjögren, Marketa; Lubitz, Steven A; Ellinor, Patrick T; Louie, Judy Z; Catanese, Joseph J; Engström, Gunnar; Devlin, James J; Kathiresan, Sekar; Melander, Olle

    2014-10-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is prevalent and there is a clinical need for biomarkers to identify individuals at higher risk for AF. Fixed throughout a life course and assayable early in life, genetic biomarkers may meet this need. Here, we investigate whether multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms together as an AF genetic risk score (AF-GRS) can improve prediction of one's risk for AF. In 27 471 participants of the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study, a prospective, community-based cohort, we used Cox models that adjusted for established AF risk factors to assess the association of AF-GRS with incident AF and ischemic stroke. Median follow-up was 14.4 years for incident AF and 14.5 years for ischemic stroke. The AF-GRS comprised 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms that had been previously shown to be associated with AF at genome-wide significance. During follow-up, 2160 participants experienced a first AF event and 1495 had a first ischemic stroke event. Participants in the top AF-GRS quintile were at increased risk for incident AF (hazard ratio, 2.00; 95% confidence interval, 1.73-2.31; P=2.7×10(-21)) and ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.46; P=0.02) when compared with the bottom quintile. Addition of the AF-GRS to established AF risk factors modestly improved both discrimination and reclassification (Pstroke. Targeting diagnostic or therapeutic interventions to this subset may prove clinically useful. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  5. Development of an Open-Heart Intraoperative Risk Scoring Model for Predicting a Prolonged Intensive Care Unit Stay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sirirat Tribuddharat

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Based on a pilot study with 34 patients, applying the modified sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA score intraoperatively could predict a prolonged ICU stay, albeit with only 4 risk factors. Our objective was to develop a practicable intraoperative model for predicting prolonged ICU stay which included more relevant risk factors. Methods. An extensive literature review identified 6 other intraoperative risk factors affecting prolonged ICU stay. Another 168 patients were then recruited for whom all 10 risk factors were extracted and analyzed by logistic regression to form the new prognostic model. Results. The multivariate logistic regression analysis retained only 6 significant risk factors in the model: age ≥ 60 years, PaO2/FiO2 ratio ≤ 200 mmHg, platelet count ≤ 120,000/mm3, requirement for inotrope/vasopressor ≥ 2 drugs, serum potassium ≤ 3.2 mEq/L, and atrial fibrillation grading ≥2. This model was then simplified into the Open-Heart Intraoperative Risk (OHIR score, comprising the same 6 risk factors for a total score of 7—a score of ≥3 indicating a likely prolonged ICU stay (AUC for ROC of 0.746. Conclusions. We developed a new, easy to calculate OHIR scoring system for predicting prolonged ICU stay as early as 3 hours after CPB. It comprises 6 risk factors, 5 of which can be manipulated intraoperatively.

  6. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-03-01

    The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806-0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768-0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738-0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692-0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese adults over 55

  7. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806–0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768–0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738–0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692–0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese

  8. Oxidative balance scores and risk of incident colorectal cancer in a US prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Chiranjeev; Bostick, Roberd M; Goodman, Michael; Flanders, W Dana; Patel, Roshni; Shah, Roma; Campbell, Peter T; McCullough, Marjorie L

    2015-04-15

    Although oxidative stress is implicated in colorectal carcinogenesis, human studies on associations of individual prooxidants and antioxidants with colorectal cancer (CRC) have been inconclusive. We incorporated individual environmental factors known to affect oxidative stress into 4 oxidative balance scores (OBS) and investigated their associations with CRC in the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort. During 1999-2009, a total of 1,109 incident CRC cases were identified among 80,063 participants in the Nutrition Cohort who had completed detailed questionnaires. Four OBS with different weighting methods (equal weights, literature review-based, a posteriori data-based, and weights based on Bayesian analysis) were created by combining 16 dietary and nondietary lifestyle factors. Higher values for all 4 OBS, representing more antioxidant exposures than prooxidant exposures, were associated with 41%-53% lower risks of CRC; for example, the relative risk for the highest OBS quartile versus the lowest in the Bayesian analysis was 0.50 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 0.61). The associations were more modest when OBS was restricted to either dietary or nondietary components. These results, obtained using comprehensive summary measures of oxidative balance-especially considering the similarity of the findings derived using the different weighting methods-support the hypothesis that a predominance of antioxidant lifestyle exposures (both dietary and nondietary) over prooxidant lifestyle exposures reduces risk of CRC.

  9. Neonatal status: an objective scoring method for identifying infants at risk for poor outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamy, A; Davis, S; Eldredge, L; Wakeley, A; Tooley, W H

    1988-01-01

    The likelihood of sustaining neurological, sensory or cognitive deficits is considerably greater for very low birthweight (VLBW) infants who require intensive care in early postnatal life than those without major neonatal illness. Identifying which, if any, medical events are responsible for an adverse outcome is most difficult in the face of multiple concurrent complications. In this research, a principal components analysis was performed in order to arrive at a set of orthogonal variables which succinctly described clinical involvement in the nursery. With this procedure, a single hypothetical factor depicting neonatal status (NS) was computed. Principal component scores were then generated for NS and assigned to 252 VLBW (less than 1500 g) infants. These subjects were followed prospectively from birth to 4 years of age. Standardized measures of neurological, sensory and intellectual function were regularly administered. Neonatal status was shown to be significantly correlated with the various test results and predictive of long-term development. When subjects were divided into quartiles with respect to NS, a specific subgroup was identified as "at high risk" for poor outcome. Those subjects falling into the lower quartile incurred more neurological abnormalities persisting beyond the first year. They also suffered a higher incidence of intracranial hemorrhage and sensori-neural hearing loss. In addition, the lower 25%, as a group, scored well below all others on traditional tests of mental ability. These differences were sustained throughout infancy and early childhood and could not be attributed to a number of demographic variables including sex, gestational age, birthweight, Apgar scores or parental educational level.

  10. Could symptoms and risk factors diagnose COPD? Development of a Diagnosis Score for COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salameh P

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Pascale Salameh,1 Georges Khayat,2 Mirna Waked31Faculties of Pharmacy and of Public Health, Lebanese University, Beirut, 2Faculty of Medicine, Hôtel Dieu de France Hospital, Beirut and Saint Joseph University, Beirut, 3Faculty of Medicine, Saint George Hospital, Beirut and Balamand University, Beirut, LebanonBackground: Diagnosing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD without spirometry is still a challenge. Our objective in this study was to develop a scale for diagnosis of COPD.Methods: Data were taken from a cross-sectional epidemiological study. After reducing chronic respiratory symptoms, a logistic regression was used to select risk factors for and symptoms of COPD. The rounded coefficients generated a Diagnosis Score for COPD (DS-COPD, which was dichotomized and differentiated between COPD and other individuals with respiratory symptoms.Results: We constructed a tool for COPD diagnosis with good properties, comprising 12 items. The area under the curve was 0.849; the positive predictive value was 76% if the DS-COPD was >20 and the negative predictive value was 97% if the DS-COPD was <10. A DS-COPD of 10–19 represented a zone mostly suggestive of no COPD (77%. The score was also inversely correlated with forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity.Conclusion: In this study, a tool for diagnosis of COPD was constructed with good properties for use in the epidemiological setting, mainly in cases of low or high scoring. It would be of particular interest in the primary care setting, where spirometry may not be available. Prospective studies and application in clinical settings would be necessary to validate this scale further.Keywords: diagnosis, scale, development, spirometry

  11. An Update on the Utility of Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring for Coronary Heart Disease and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kianoush, Sina; Al Rifai, Mahmoud; Cainzos-Achirica, Miguel; Umapathi, Priya; Graham, Garth; Blumenthal, Roger S; Nasir, Khurram; Blaha, Michael J

    2016-03-01

    Estimating cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is necessary for determining the potential net benefit of primary prevention pharmacotherapy. Risk estimation relying exclusively on traditional CVD risk factors may misclassify risk, resulting in both undertreatment and overtreatment. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring personalizes risk prediction through direct visualization of calcified coronary atherosclerotic plaques and provides improved accuracy for coronary heart disease (CHD) or CVD risk estimation. In this review, we discuss the most recent studies on CAC, which unlike historical studies, focus sharply on clinical application. We describe the MESA CHD risk calculator, a recently developed CAC-based 10-year CHD risk estimator, which can help guide preventive therapy allocation by better identifying both high- and low-risk individuals. In closing, we discuss calcium density, regional distribution of CAC, and extra-coronary calcification, which represent the future of CAC and CVD risk assessment research and may lead to further improvements in risk prediction.

  12. The "Dry-Run" Analysis: A Method for Evaluating Risk Scores for Confounding Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, Richard; Hansen, Ben B; Ellis, Alan R; Gagne, Joshua J; Desai, Rishi J; Glynn, Robert J; Stürmer, Til

    2017-03-06

    A propensity score (PS) model's ability to control confounding can be assessed by evaluating covariate balance across exposure groups after PS adjustment. The optimal strategy for evaluating a disease risk score (DRS) model's ability to control confounding is less clear. DRS models cannot be evaluated through balance checks within the full population, and they are usually assessed through prediction diagnostics and goodness-of-fit tests. A proposed alternative is the "dry-run" analysis, which divides the unexposed population into "pseudo-exposed" and "pseudo-unexposed" groups so that differences on observed covariates resemble differences between the actual exposed and unexposed populations. With no exposure effect separating the pseudo-exposed and pseudo-unexposed groups, a DRS model is evaluated by its ability to retrieve an unconfounded null estimate after adjustment in this pseudo-population. We used simulations and an empirical example to compare traditional DRS performance metrics with the dry-run validation. In simulations, the dry run often improved assessment of confounding control, compared with the C statistic and goodness-of-fit tests. In the empirical example, PS and DRS matching gave similar results and showed good performance in terms of covariate balance (PS matching) and controlling confounding in the dry-run analysis (DRS matching). The dry-run analysis may prove useful in evaluating confounding control through DRS models.

  13. Scoring life insurance applicants' laboratory results, blood pressure and build to predict all-cause mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

    2012-01-01

    Evaluate the degree of medium to longer term mortality prediction possible from a scoring system covering all laboratory testing used for life insurance applicants, as well as blood pressure and build measurements. Using the results of testing for life insurance applicants who reported a Social Security number in conjunction with the Social Security Death Master File, the mortality associated with each test result was defined by age and sex. The individual mortality scores for each test were combined for each individual and a composite mortality risk score was developed. This score was then tested against the insurance applicant dataset to evaluate its ability to discriminate risk across age and sex. The composite risk score was highly predictive of all-cause mortality risk in a linear manner from the best to worst quintile of scores in a nearly identical fashion for each sex and decade of age. Laboratory studies, blood pressure and build from life insurance applicants can be used to create scoring that predicts all-cause mortality across age and sex. Such an approach may hold promise for preventative health screening as well.

  14. Prediction of coronary risk by SYNTAX and derived scores: synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with taxus and cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Mayank; Palmerini, Tullio; Caixeta, Adriano; Madhavan, Mahesh V; Sanidas, Elias; Kirtane, Ajay J; Stone, Gregg W; Généreux, Philippe

    2013-10-01

    The introduction of the SYNTAX (Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score has prompted a renewed interest for angiographic risk stratification in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Syntax score is based on qualitative and quantitative characterization of coronary artery disease by including 11 angiographic variables that take into consideration lesion location and characteristics. Thus far, this score has been shown to be an effective tool to risk-stratify patients with complex coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention in the landmark SYNTAX trial, as well as in other clinical settings. This review provides an overview of its current applications, including its integration with other nonangiographic clinical scores, and explores future applications of the SYNTAX and derived scores.

  15. A four-year cardiovascular risk score for type 2 diabetic inpatients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolores Ramírez-Prado

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available As cardiovascular risk tables currently in use were constructed using data from the general population, the cardiovascular risk of patients admitted via the hospital emergency department may be underestimated. Accordingly, we constructed a predictive model for the appearance of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. We undertook a four-year follow-up of a cohort of 112 adult patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department for any cause except patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, or a palliative status. The sample was selected randomly between 2010 and 2012. The primary outcome was time to cardiovascular disease. Other variables (at baseline were gender, age, heart failure, renal failure, depression, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, insulin, smoking, admission for cardiovascular causes, pills per day, walking habit, fasting blood glucose and creatinine. A cardiovascular risk table was constructed based on the score to estimate the likelihood of cardiovascular disease. Risk groups were established and the c-statistic was calculated. Over a mean follow-up of 2.31 years, 39 patients had cardiovascular disease (34.8%, 95% CI [26.0–43.6%]. Predictive factors were gender, age, hypertension, renal failure, insulin, admission due to cardiovascular reasons and walking habit. The c-statistic was 0.734 (standard error: 0.049. After validation, this study will provide a tool for the primary health care services to enable the short-term prediction of cardiovascular disease after hospital discharge in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department.

  16. The coronary calcium score is a more accurate predictor of significant coronary stenosis than conventional risk factors in symptomatic patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicoll, R; Wiklund, U; Zhao, Y;

    2016-01-01

    risk factor assessment, computed tomographic coronary angiogram (CTCA) or conventional angiography and a CT scan for coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring. 1539 (27.9%) patients had significant stenosis, 5.5% of whom had zero CAC. In 5074 patients, multiple binary regression showed the most important...... predictor of significant stenosis to be male gender (B=1.07) followed by diabetes mellitus (B=0.70) smoking, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, family history of CAD and age but not obesity. When the log transformed CAC score was included, it became the most powerful predictor (B=1.25), followed by male...... gender (B=0.48), diabetes, smoking, family history and age but hypercholesterolaemia and hypertension lost significance. The CAC score is a more accurate predictor of >50% stenosis than risk factors regardless of the means of assessment of stenosis. The sensitivity of risk factors, CAC score...

  17. Combination of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and Cardiac Surgery Score (CASUS) to Improve Outcome Prediction in Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doerr, Fabian; Heldwein, Matthias B; Bayer, Ole; Sabashnikov, Anton; Weymann, Alexander; Dohmen, Pascal M; Wahlers, Thorsten; Hekmat, Khosro

    2015-08-17

    BACKGROUND We hypothesized that the combination of a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system would improve the accuracy of mortality prediction and therefore combined the preoperative 'additive EuroSCORE' (European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation) with the postoperative 'additive CASUS' (Cardiac Surgery Score) to form the 'modified CASUS'. MATERIAL AND METHODS We included all consecutive adult patients after cardiac surgery during January 2007 and December 2010 in our prospective study. Our single-centre study was conducted in a German general referral university hospital. The original additive and the 'modified CASUS' were tested using calibration and discrimination statistics. We compared the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver characteristic curves (ROC) by DeLong's method and calculated overall correct classification (OCC) values. RESULTS The mean age among the total of 5207 patients was 67.2 ± 10.9 years. Whilst the ICU mortality was 5.9% we observed a mean length of ICU stay of 4.6 ± 7.0 days. Both models demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (mean AUC of 'modified CASUS': ≥ 0.929; 'additive CASUS': ≥ 0.920), with no significant differences according to DeLong. Neither model showed a significant p-value (cardiac surgery by combining a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system. A separate calculation of the two individual elements is therefore recommended.

  18. Modified Mediterranean diet score and cardiovascular risk in a North American working population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Yang

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Greater adherence to a Mediterranean diet is linked to lower risk for cardiovascular morbidity/mortality in studies of Mediterranean cohorts, older subjects, and/or those with existing health conditions. No studies have examined the effects of this dietary pattern in younger working populations in the United States. We investigated the effects of Mediterranean diet adherence on cardiovascular disease (CVD biomarkers, metabolic syndrome and body composition in an occupationally active, non-Mediterranean cohort. METHODS: A cross-sectional study in a cohort of 780 career male firefighters, ages 18 years or older, from the United States Midwest. No dietary intervention was performed. A modified Mediterranean diet score (mMDS was developed for assessment of adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern from a previously administered life-style questionnaire that examined pre-existing dietary habits. Clinical data from fire department medical examinations were extracted and analyzed. RESULTS: Obese subjects had significantly lower mMDS, and they reported greater fast/take-out food consumption (p<0.001 and intake of sweetened drinks during meals (p = 0.002. After multivariate adjustment, higher mMDS was inversely related to risk of weight gain over the past 5 years (odds ratio [OR]: 0.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.39-0.84, p for trend across score quartiles: 0.01; as well as the presence of metabolic syndrome components (OR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.44-0.94, p for trend across score quartiles: 0.04. Higher HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.008 and lower LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.04 were observed in those with higher mMDS in linear regression after multivariate adjustment for age, BMI and physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of young and active US adults, greater adherence to a Mediterranean-style dietary pattern had significant inverse associations with metabolic syndrome, LDL-cholesterol and reported weight gain, and was significantly and

  19. Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and ......BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores...... for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. FINDINGS: Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central...... and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13...

  20. Computed Tomography Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring Review of Evidence Base and Cost-effectiveness in Cardiovascular Risk Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; Morris, Pamela B.

    2012-01-01

    Cardiovascular risk factor-scoring algorithms may fall short in identifying asymptomatic individuals who will subsequently suffer a coronary event. It is generally thought that evaluation of the extent of the atherosclerotic plaque and total plaque burden can improve cardiovascular risk stratificati

  1. Role of γ-glutamyl transferase levels in prediction of high cardiovascular risk among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benan Kasapoglu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD is an important cause of elevated liver functions. There is evidence showing an association between NAFLD and subclinical atherosclerosis independent of traditional risk factors. We undertook this retrospective study to determine the association of Framingham cardiovascular risk scoring system with liver function tests and inflammatory markers and to find the role of liver function tests in determination of CVD risk among non-obese and non-diabetic subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Methods: A total of 2058 patients were included in the study. Framingham cardiovascular risk scoring was done of all patients according to the age, gender, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol levels, smoking and antihypertensive medication history. Liver function test, lipid profile, insulin, uric acid, ferritin levels, etc. were determined. Results: According to the ultrasonography findings, patients were grouped as without any fatty infiltration of the liver (control group (n=982, mild (n= 473, moderate (n=363 and severe fatty liver disease (n= 240 groups. In severe fatty liver disease group, the mean Framingham cardiovascular risk score was significantly higher than that of other groups. t0 here was a positive correlation between GGT, uric acid and ferritin levels with Framingham cardiovascular score. In multivariate analysis, high GGT levels were positively associated with high-risk disease presence (OR: 3.02, 95% CI: 2.62-3.42 compared to low GGT levels independent of the age and sex. Interpretation & conclusions: Cardiovascular disease risk increases with the presence and stage of fatty liver disease. Our findings showed a positive correlation between elevated GGT levels and Framingham cardiovascular risk scoring system among non-diabetic, non-obese adults which could be important in clinical practice. Though in normal limits, elevated GGT levels

  2. Cardiovascular Risk and Level of Statin Use Among Women With Breast Cancer in a Cardio-Oncology Clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shum, Kelly; Solivan, Amber; Parto, Parham; Polin, Nichole; Jahangir, Eiman

    2016-01-01

    Because of the improvements in survival rates, patients with breast cancer are now more likely to die from cardiovascular disease than from cancer. Thus, providing appropriate preventive cardiovascular care to patients with cancer is of the utmost importance. We retrospectively compared the cardiovascular risk and management of 146 women treated at the Cardio-Oncology (Cardio-Onc) and the Obstetrics and Gynecology (Ob-Gyn) clinics. We calculated cardiovascular risk using the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk calculator and the Framingham Risk Score Calculator. We also determined the prevalence of appropriate statin use according to both the 2013 ACC/AHA and the 2002 Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III lipid guidelines. The 10-year ASCVD risk score was not significantly different between the 2 cohorts. More patients in the Ob-Gyn cohort with an ASCVD risk score >7.5% were already appropriately on statins compared to patients in the Cardio-Onc cohort (60.9% vs 31.0%, respectively, P=0.003), but after the first Cardio-Onc visit, 4 additional patients with breast cancer were prescribed statins (44.8% total). Fourteen (19.2%) Cardio-Onc patients had a high Framingham Risk Score compared to 6 (8.2%) Ob-Gyn patients. We demonstrated that the ASCVD risk is similar between women with breast cancer attending the Cardio-Onc clinic and the women without breast cancer attending the Ob-Gyn clinic, but the Cardio-Onc cohort had significantly more patients with a high Framingham Risk Score. Both clinics had similarly poor rates of appropriate statin prescribing rates according to the ATP III guidelines.

  3. Polygenic risk score and heritability estimates reveals a genetic relationship between ASD and OCD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, W; Samuels, J F; Wang, Y; Cao, H; Ritter, M; Nestadt, P S; Krasnow, J; Greenberg, B D; Fyer, A J; McCracken, J T; Geller, D A; Murphy, D L; Knowles, J A; Grados, M A; Riddle, M A; Rasmussen, S A; McLaughlin, N C; Nurmi, E L; Askland, K D; Cullen, B A; Piacentini, J; Pauls, D L; Bienvenu, O J; Stewart, S E; Goes, F S; Maher, B; Pulver, A E; Valle, D; Mattheisen, M; Qian, J; Nestadt, G; Shugart, Y Y

    2017-07-01

    Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are both highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorders that conceivably share genetic risk factors. However, the underlying genetic determinants remain largely unknown. In this work, the authors describe a combined genome-wide association study (GWAS) of ASD and OCD. The OCD dataset includes 2998 individuals in nuclear families. The ASD dataset includes 6898 individuals in case-parents trios. GWAS summary statistics were examined for potential enrichment of functional variants associated with gene expression levels in brain regions. The top ranked SNP is rs4785741 (chromosome 16) with P value=6.9×10(-7) in our re-analysis. Polygenic risk score analyses were conducted to investigate the genetic relationship within and across the two disorders. These analyses identified a significant polygenic component of ASD, predicting 0.11% of the phenotypic variance in an independent OCD data set. In addition, we examined the genomic architecture of ASD and OCD by estimating heritability on different chromosomes and different allele frequencies, analyzing genome-wide common variant data by using the Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA) program. The estimated global heritability of OCD is 0.427 (se=0.093) and 0.174 (se=0.053) for ASD in these imputed data. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. [Dystocia risk score: a decision making tool to combat maternal mortality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiaye, Papa; Niang, Khadim; Diallo, Issakha

    2013-01-01

    As a way to prevent maternal mortality and stillbirth, the dystocia risk score includes three components: a left column provides a list of eight characteristics to check for in the woman; an upper horizontal section provides a checklist of possible outcomes of the pregnancy itself: and a rectangular grid indicates the prognosis in three zones: a large red (dangerous), a medium-sized grey (doubtful) and a small blue (hopeful). The DRS is positive if there is at least one cross in the dangerous zone and/or two crosses in the doubtful zone (it indicates that the woman should be referred to a center specialized in obstetric emergency care); elsewhere, the DRS is negative. The validation test gives good results (sensitivity=83.61%, specificity=90.05%, positive predictive value=72.34%, and negative predictive value=94.04%). Its large-scale use would accelerate the identification of pregnant women with a high risk of dystocia. Their timely referral to specialized emergency obstetrics centers would increase the efficacy of care and reduce the levels of maternal mortality and stillbirth.

  5. Consent for Genetic Research in the Framingham Heart Study

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Extensive efforts have been aimed at understanding the genetic underpinnings of complex diseases that affect humans. Numerous genome-wide association studies have assessed the association of genes with human disease; including the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), which genotyped 550,000 SNPs in 9,000 participants. The success of such efforts requires high rates of consent by participants, which is dependent on ethical oversight, communications, and trust between research participants and investi...

  6. The correction of TTO-scores for utility curvature using a risk-free utility elicitation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes and employs a new method to correct time tradeoff (TTO)-scores for utility of life duration curvature. In contrast to most previous attempts to do so, it uses a risk-free method that corresponds well to the risk-free properties of the TTO-method. In addition, the method is robust to several biases that occur under methods that incorporate risk. Our results show a significant degree of curvature in utility of life duration and therefore a clear bias in TTO-scores. The risk-free method seems to be useful to correct TTO-scores for this influence and leads to significantly higher quality-adjustment factors.

  7. A Novel Risk Score in Predicting Failure or Success for Antegrade Approach to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention of Chronic Total Occlusion: Antegrade CTO Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namazi, Mohammad Hasan; Serati, Ali Reza; Vakili, Hosein; Safi, Morteza; Parsa, Saeed Ali Pour; Saadat, Habibollah; Taherkhani, Maryam; Emami, Sepideh; Pedari, Shamseddin; Vatanparast, Masoomeh; Movahed, Mohammad Reza

    2017-06-01

    Total occlusion of a coronary artery for more than 3 months is defined as chronic total occlusion (CTO). The goal of this study was to develop a risk score in predicting failure or success during attempted percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of CTO lesions using antegrade approach. This study was based on retrospective analyses of clinical and angiographic characteristics of CTO lesions that were assessed between February 2012 and February 2014. Success rate was defined as passing through occlusion with successful stent deployment using an antegrade approach. A total of 188 patients were studied. Mean ± SD age was 59 ± 9 years. Failure rate was 33%. In a stepwise multivariate regression analysis, bridging collaterals (OR = 6.7, CI = 1.97-23.17, score = 2), absence of stump (OR = 5.8, CI = 1.95-17.9, score = 2), presence of calcification (OR = 3.21, CI = 1.46-7.07, score = 1), presence of bending (OR = 2.8, CI = 1.28-6.10, score = 1), presence of near side branch (OR = 2.7, CI = 1.08-6.57, score = 1), and absence of retrograde filling (OR = 2.5, CI = 1.03-6.17, score = 1) were independent predictors of PCI failure. A score of 7 or more was associated with 100% failure rate whereas a score of 2 or less was associated with over 80% success rate. Most factors associated with failure of CTO-PCI are related to lesion characteristics. A new risk score (range 0-8) is developed to predict CTO-PCI success or failure rate during antegrade approach as a guide before attempting PCI of CTO lesions.

  8. A risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in heart failure patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Hlatky, Mark A;

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Heart failure is an established risk factor for poor outcomes in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, yet risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. We developed an index for 30-day mortality risk prediction in this particular group. METHODS AND RESULTS: All individuals...... with heart failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery between October 23 2004 and October 31 2011 were included from Danish administrative registers (n = 16 827). In total, 1787 (10.6%) died within 30 days. In a simple risk score based on the variables from the revised cardiac risk index, plus age, gender, acute...... by bootstrapping (1000 re-samples) provided c-statistic of 0.79. A more complex risk score based on stepwise logistic regression including 24 variables at P failure, this simple...

  9. Internal Validation of the Sepsis in Obstetrics Score to Identify Risk of Morbidity From Sepsis in Pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, Catherine M; Has, Phinnara; Rouse, Dwight J; Hughes, Brenna L

    2017-10-01

    To prospectively validate the Sepsis in Obstetrics Score, a pregnancy-specific sepsis scoring system, to identify risk for intensive care unit (ICU) admission for sepsis in pregnancy. This is a prospective validation study of the Sepsis in Obstetrics Score. The primary outcome was admission to the ICU for sepsis. Secondary outcomes included admission to a telemetry unit and time to administration of antibiotic therapy. We evaluated test characteristics of a predetermined score of 6 or greater. Between March 2012 and May 2015, 1,250 pregnant or postpartum women presented to the emergency department and met systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria. Of those, 425 (34%) had a clinical suspicion or diagnosis of an infection, 14 of whom (3.3%) were admitted to the ICU. The Sepsis in Obstetrics Score had an area under the curve of 0.85 (95% CI 0.76-0.95) for prediction of ICU admission for sepsis. This is within the prespecified 15% margin of the area under the curve of 0.97 found in the derivation cohort. A score of 6 or greater had a sensitivity of 64%, specificity of 88%, positive predictive value of 15%, and negative predictive value of 98.6%. Women with a score 6 or greater were more likely to be admitted to the ICU (15% compared with 1.4%, Pidentify risk of ICU admission for sepsis with the threshold score of 6 having a negative predictive value of 98.6%. Adherence to antibiotic administration guidelines is poor.

  10. A quantified risk-scoring system and rating model for postsurgical gastroparesis syndrome in gastric cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Dong; Mao, Chen-Chen; Zhang, Wei-Teng; Lin, Ji; Wu, Rui-Sen; Zhang, Feng-Min; Sun, Xiang-Wei; Chi, Chu-Huai; Shen, Xian; Wang, Peng-Fei

    2017-09-01

    The study aimed to investigate the relationship between obesity and postsurgical gastroparesis syndrome (PGS), and to construct a scoring system and a risk model to identify patients at high risk. A total of 634 patients were retrospectively analyzed. Clinical characteristics were evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Logistic analysis was performed to determine the independent predictive indicators of PGS. A scoring system consisting of these indicators and a risk-rating model were constructed and evaluated via ROC curve analysis. Based on the ROC curves, the visceral fat area (VFA) cutoff value for PGS was 94.00. Logistic analysis showed that visceral obesity (VFA ≥ 94.00 cm(2) ), the reconstruction technique, and tumor size were independent prognostic factors for PGS. The scoring system could predict PGS reliably with a high area under the ROC curve ([AUC] = 0.769). A high-risk rating had a high AUC (AUC I = 0.56, AUC II = 0.65, and AUC III = 0.77), indicating that the risk-rating model could effectively screen patients at high risk of PGS. Visceral obesity defined by VFA effectively predicted PGS. Our scoring system may be a reliable instrument for identifying patients most at risk of PGS. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Coronary risk in a cohort of Paralympic athletes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filho, J A O; Salvetti, X M; de Mello, M T; da Silva, A C; Filho, B L

    2006-01-01

    Objective To determine the prevalence of coronary risk factors in Paralympic athletes and evaluate their risk of coronary events. Method An observational prospective cross sectional study of 79 consecutive Brazilian Paralympic athletes (mean (SD) age 27.8 (6.7) years (median 26 years)). There were 56 men and 23 women, 67 with physical and 12 with visual disabilities. The occurrence of systemic hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, familial antecedents, obesity, and hypertriglyceridaemia was investigated. The risk of coronary events was calculated using the American Heart Association Coronary risk handbook, and also the 10 year probability of a coronary event using the Framingham risk score. Results The prevalence of risk factors was: systemic hypertension, 11%; familial antecedents, 10%; smoking, 9%; hypertriglyceridaemia, 6%; hypercholesterolaemia, 1.3%; obesity, 4%; diabetes, 0%. They occurred in 51% of the Paralympic athletes: one factor (41%), two factors (4%), and three factors (6%). The risk of coronary events was absent in 80%, slight in 17%, and moderate in 3%. This could only be evaluated in 81% of the athletes, as 8% had amputations, 9% were young, and 2% had unknown familial antecedents. The Framingham risk score ranged from −14 to +6, predicting a 10 year probability of a coronary event of 3.3 (3.8)%. Conclusion This study shows a reasonably high prevalence of coronary risk factors (51%), despite a low probability of coronary events in Paralympic athletes. The lipid and blood pressure profiles were similar in ambulatory and wheelchair athletes. PMID:16950883

  12. Developing a novel risk-scoring system for predicting relapse in patients with ulcerative colitis: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Seyed Vahid; Safarpour, Ali Reza; Taghavi, Seyed Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Ulcerative Colitis (UC) follows a natural clinical course of relapses and remissions. The aim of this study was to construct a risk-scoring formula in order to enable predicting relapses in patients with UC. From October 2012 to October 2013, 157 patients from Shiraz, southern Iran who were diagnosed with UC and in remission were enrolled. At 3-month intervals, multiple risk factors of hemoglobin, complete blood counts, serum iron and albumin, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and faecal calprotectin levels, sex, age, cigarette smoking, positive family history of inflammatory bowel diseases, past history of appendectomy, extra-intestinal accompanying diseases, extent of disease at the beginning of study, number of previous relapses, duration of disease and duration of remission before the study were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were applied to fit the final model. The new risk-scoring system accuracy was assessed using receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. Seventy four patients (48.1%) experienced a relapse. Multivariate analysis revealed that relapses could significantly be predicted by the level of fecal calprotectin (OR=8.1), age (OR=9.2), the Seo activity index (OR=52.7), and the number of previous relapses (OR=4.2). The risk scoring formula was developed using the regression coefficient values of the aforementioned variables. Four predictor variables were significant in the final model and were used in our risk-scoring formula. It is recommended that patients who achieve high scores are diligently observed, treated, and followed up.

  13. Additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brkovic, Voin; Dobric, Milan; Beleslin, Branko; Giga, Vojislav; Vukcevic, Vladan; Stojkovic, Sinisa; Stankovic, Goran; Nedeljkovic, Milan A; Orlic, Dejan; Tomasevic, Miloje; Stepanovic, Jelena; Ostojic, Miodrag

    2013-08-01

    This study evaluated additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). All six scores were calculated in 209 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing pPCI. Primary end-point was the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE--composite of cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke); secondary end point was cardiovascular mortality. Patients were stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles (≤12; between 12 and 19.5; >19.5). The median follow-up was 20 months. Rates of MACE and cardiovascular mortality were highest in the upper tertile of the SYNTAX score (p SYNTAX score was independent multivariable predictor of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, and PAMI risk scores. However, the SYNTAX score did not improve the Cox regression models of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to the CADILLAC score. The SYNTAX score has predictive value for MACE and cardiovascular mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI. Furthermore, SYNTAX score improves prognostic performance of well-established GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE and PAMI clinical scores, but not the CADILLAC risk score. Therefore, long-term survival in patients after STEMI depends less on detailed angiographical characterization of coronary lesions, but more on clinical characteristics, myocardial function and basic angiographic findings as provided by the CADILLAC score.

  14. 代谢综合征与冠状动脉狭窄程度及心血管危险评分的关系%Relation Between Metabolic Syndrome and Coronary Artery Stenosis, Cardiovascular Risk Score

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李婉; 白小涓

    2012-01-01

    目的 了解代谢综合征患者冠状动脉狭窄程度及心血管危险评分的特点,以探讨代谢综合征与后两者之间的关系.方法 连续收集胸部不适并行冠状动脉CT检查的136例患者,所有患者均检查血压、空腹血糖及血脂,包括甘油三酯、总胆固醇、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇及低密度脂蛋白胆固醇.应用美国2001年NCEP-ATPⅢ代谢综合征诊断标准,将其分为代谢综合征组及非代谢综合征组.冠状动脉狭窄程度用多层螺旋CT测量,比较两组间冠状动脉狭窄程度的差异,并对心血管危险评分中各项指标的差异进行比较.结果 冠状动脉狭窄程度代谢综合征组均较非代谢综合征组为重,两组的高血压、糖尿病患者、血脂异常及心血管危险评分存在明显差异.结论 代谢综合征患者冠状动脉狭窄程度较重,且多数心血管危险评分较高.代谢综合征可作为冠心病的重要危险因素,早期全面干预其中的各个成分有助于冠心病的防治.%Aim To analyze the characteristics of coronary artery stenosis and the cardiovascular risk score I. E. Framingham risk score (FRS) in the metabolic syndrome (MS) patients. Methods Collect 136 patients who have chest discomfort and have undergone coronary multi slicespiral CT examination continuously, and check their blood pressure , fasting blood glucose and lipids, including triglycerides, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol and low density lipoprotein cholesterol. Use the United States 2001 NCEP-ATP Ⅲ diagnostic criteria of metabolic syndrome to divide the study population into non-MS group and MS group. Use multi-slicespiral CT to measure the degree of coronary artery stenosis, and compare the differences of the coronary artery stenosis between non-MS group and MS group, and also compare the differences of the contents in the cardiovascular risk score. Results MS group shows more severe coronary artery stenosis compared with

  15. Predicting the Risk of Clostridium difficile Infection upon Admission: A Score to Identify Patients for Antimicrobial Stewardship Efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuntz, Jennifer L; Smith, David H; Petrik, Amanda F; Yang, Xiuhai; Thorp, Micah L; Barton, Tracy; Barton, Karen; Labreche, Matthew; Spindel, Steven J; Johnson, Eric S

    2016-01-01

    Increasing morbidity and health care costs related to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have heightened interest in methods to identify patients who would most benefit from interventions to mitigate the likelihood of CDI. To develop a risk score that can be calculated upon hospital admission and used by antimicrobial stewards, including pharmacists and clinicians, to identify patients at risk for CDI who would benefit from enhanced antibiotic review and patient education. We assembled a cohort of Kaiser Permanente Northwest patients with a hospital admission from July 1, 2005, through December 30, 2012, and identified CDI in the six months following hospital admission. Using Cox regression, we constructed a score to identify patients at high risk for CDI on the basis of preadmission characteristics. We calculated and plotted the observed six-month CDI risk for each decile of predicted risk. We identified 721 CDIs following 54,186 hospital admissions-a 6-month incidence of 13.3 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. Patients with the highest predicted risk of CDI had an observed incidence of 53 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. The score differentiated between patients who do and do not develop CDI, with values for the extended C-statistic of 0.75. Predicted risk for CDI agreed closely with observed risk. Our risk score accurately predicted six-month risk for CDI using preadmission characteristics. Accurate predictions among the highest-risk patient subgroups allow for the identification of patients who could be targeted for and who would likely benefit from review of inpatient antibiotic use or enhanced educational efforts at the time of discharge planning.

  16. Use of a risk scoring tool to identify higher-risk HIV-1 serodiscordant couples for an antiretroviral-based HIV-1 prevention intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irungu, Elizabeth M; Heffron, Renee; Mugo, Nelly; Ngure, Kenneth; Katabira, Elly; Bulya, Nulu; Bukusi, Elizabeth; Odoyo, Josephine; Asiimwe, Stephen; Tindimwebwa, Edna; Celum, Connie; Baeten, Jared M

    2016-10-17

    Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) reduce HIV-1 transmission within heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples. Prioritizing couples at highest HIV-1 transmission risk for ART and PrEP would maximize impact and minimize costs. The Partners Demonstration Project is an open-label, delivery study of integrated PrEP and ART for HIV-1 prevention among high risk HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Kenya and Uganda. We evaluated the feasibility of using a validated risk score that weighs a combination of easily measurable factors (age, children, marital status, male circumcision status, condom use, plasma HIV-1 levels) to identify couples at highest risk for HIV-1 transmission for enrollment. Couples scoring ≥5 met the risk score eligibility criteria. We screened 1694 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples and enrolled 1013. Of the screened couples, 1331 (78.6 %) scored ≥5 (with an expected incidence >3 % per year) and 76 % of these entered the study. The median age of the HIV-1 uninfected partner was 29 years [IQR 26, 36] and 20 % were 50,000 copies/ml. A risk scoring tool identified HIV-1 serodiscordant couples for a demonstration project of PrEP and ART with high HIV-1 risk. The tool may be feasible for research and public health settings to maximize efficiency and minimize HIV-1 prevention costs.

  17. Comparative Evaluation of Four Risk Scores for Predicting Mortality in Patients With Implantable Cardioverter-defibrillator for Primary Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Mañero, Moisés; Abu Assi, Emad; Sánchez-Gómez, Juan Miguel; Fernández-Armenta, Juan; Díaz-Infante, Ernesto; García-Bolao, Ignacio; Benezet-Mazuecos, Juan; Andrés Lahuerta, Ana; Expósito-García, Víctor; Bertomeu-González, Vicente; Arce-León, Álvaro; Barrio-López, María Teresa; Peinado, Rafael; Martínez-Sande, Luis; Arias, Miguel A

    2016-11-01

    Several clinical risk scores have been developed to identify patients at high risk of all-cause mortality despite implantation of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. We aimed to examine and compare the predictive capacity of 4 simple scoring systems (MADIT-II, FADES, PACE and SHOCKED) for predicting mortality after defibrillator implantation for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in a Mediterranean country. A multicenter retrospective study was performed in 15 Spanish hospitals. Consecutive patients referred for defibrillator implantation between January 2010 and December 2011 were included. A total of 916 patients with ischemic and nonischemic heart disease were included (mean age, 62 ± 11 years, 81.4% male). Over 33.4 ± 12.9 months, 113 (12.3%) patients died (cardiovascular origin in 86 [9.4%] patients). At 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, mortality rates were 4.5%, 7.6%, 10.8%, and 12.3% respectively. All the risk scores showed a stepwise increase in the risk of death throughout the scoring system of each of the scores and all 4 scores identified patients at greater risk of mortality. The scores were significantly associated with all-cause mortality throughout the follow-up period. PACE displayed the lowest c-index value regardless of whether the population had heart disease of ischemic (c-statistic = 0.61) or nonischemic origin (c-statistic = 0.61), whereas MADIT-II (c-statistic = 0.67 and 0.65 in ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy, respectively), SHOCKED (c-statistic = 0.68 and 0.66, respectively), and FADES (c-statistic = 0.66 and 0.60) provided similar c-statistic values (P ≥ .09). In this nontrial-based cohort of Mediterranean patients, the 4 evaluated risk scores showed a significant stepwise increase in the risk of death. Among the currently available risk scores, MADIT-II, FADES, and SHOCKED provide slightly better performance than PACE. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All

  18. Risk Factors Of Heart Disease in Nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahromi, Mahdi K; Hojat, Mohsen; Koshkaki, Saiede R; Nazari, Faride; Ragibnejad, Maryam

    2017-01-01

    Identifying and correcting the modifiable risk factors reduces the prevalence of coronary artery disorders (CAD). Nurses, with regards to their employment conditions, can be prone to cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to determine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among nurses. In this cross-sectional study, census sampling was conducted among nurses of Jahrom, Iran, in 2014. Data were collected through interviews, blood pressure measurement, anthropometric parameters, and blood sample collection. To analyze the data, descriptive statistical analysis, and comparative (independent t-test) and correlation (Pearson) tests were used; the significance level was considered to be P < 0.05. In this study, 263 (89.76%) nurses participated, 79.8% of whom were women. The mean age of the participants was 31.04 (6.97). In terms of body mass index, 41.7% was the waist-to-hip ratio, 16.7% was the waist-to-height ratio, and 63.1% were in the range of obesity. In addition, 5.7% had abnormal triglyceride, 4.9% had high cholesterol, and 15.1% had high blood pressure. The mean percentage of the Framingham risk score of the participants was 1.07 (1.84). In this study, the total mean percentage of the Framingham risk score of the nurses was 1.07, which showed a low risk of CAD in the study population over the next decade.

  19. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients Evaluación del riesgo cardiovascular en hipertensos Avaliação do risco cardiovascular em hipertensos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels. OBJETIVO: evaluar el riesgo cardiovascular utilizando el puntaje de Framingham tradicional y el modificado por la incorporación de factores de riesgo emergentes como historia familiar de infarto agudo del miocardio, síndrome metabólico y enfermedad renal crónica. MÉTODO: participaron 50 hipertensos que hacen tratamiento en ambulatorio. Los datos clínicos fueron obtenidos por medio de entrevista semiestructurada y los de laboratorio fueron obtenidos de fichas. RESULTADOS: se verificó que el puntaje de Framingham tradicional fue predominantemente bajo (74%, 14% presentó riesgo medio y 12% riesgo alto. Tras la inclusión de factores de riesgo emergentes, la probabilidad de ocurrir un evento coronario fue baja en 22% de los casos, media en 56% y alta en 22% de los casos. CONCLUSIONES: la comparación entre el puntaje de riesgo de Framingham tradicional y el modificado demostr

  20. A genetic risk score of 45 coronary artery disease risk variants associates with increased risk of myocardial infarction in 6041 Danish individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krarup, N T; Borglykke, A; Allin, K H;

    2015-01-01

    discrimination improvement (IDI) added to the European SCORE for 10-year MI risk prediction. RESULTS: The GRS associated significantly with risk of incident MI (allele-dependent hazard ratio (95%CI): 1.06 (1.02-1.11), p = 0.01) but not with CAD (p = 0.39). Stratification revealed association of GRS with MI...... in men (1.06 (1.01-1.12), p = 0.02) and in individuals above the median of 45.11 years of age (1.06 (1.00-1.12), p = 0.03). There was no interaction between GRS and gender (p = 0.90) or age (p = 0.83). The GRS improved neither NRI nor IDI. CONCLUSION: The GRS of 45 GWAS identified risk variants increase...

  1. [The application of genetic risk score in genetic studies of complex human diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayan, Niu; Weili, Yan

    2015-12-01

    Complex diseases such as cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, essential hypertension, asthma, obesity and cancer have spread across the globe and become the predominant cause of death. There are growing concerns over the role of genetic susceptibility in pathogenesis of complex diseases. However, the related susceptibility genes and sequence variations are still unknown. To elucidate the genetic basis of complex diseases, researchers have identified a large number of genetic variants associated with complex diseases through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and candidate gene studies recently. The identification of these causal and/or associated variants promotes the development of approaches for complex diseases prediction and prevention. Genetic risk score (GRS), an emerging method for exploring correlation between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and clinical phenotypes of complex diseases, integrates weak effects of multiple SNPs and dramatically enhances predictability of complex diseases by gene polymorphisms. This method has been applied successfully in genetic studies of many complex diseases. Here we focus on the introduction of the computational methods and evaluation criteria of GRS, enumerate a series of achievements through GRS application, discuss some limitations during application, and finally prospect the future of GRS.

  2. Polygenic Risk Score, Parental Socioeconomic Status, Family History of Psychiatric Disorders, and the Risk for Schizophrenia: A Danish Population-Based Study and Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agerbo, Esben; Sullivan, Patrick F; Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Pedersen, Carsten B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Hollegaard, Mads V; Meier, Sandra; Mattheisen, Manuel; Ripke, Stephan; Wray, Naomi R; Mortensen, Preben B

    2015-07-01

    Schizophrenia has a complex etiology influenced both by genetic and nongenetic factors but disentangling these factors is difficult. To estimate (1) how strongly the risk for schizophrenia relates to the mutual effect of the polygenic risk score, parental socioeconomic status, and family history of psychiatric disorders; (2) the fraction of cases that could be prevented if no one was exposed to these factors; (3) whether family background interacts with an individual's genetic liability so that specific subgroups are particularly risk prone; and (4) to what extent a proband's genetic makeup mediates the risk associated with familial background. We conducted a nested case-control study based on Danish population-based registers. The study consisted of 866 patients diagnosed as having schizophrenia between January 1, 1994, and December 31, 2006, and 871 matched control individuals. Genome-wide data and family psychiatric and socioeconomic background information were obtained from neonatal biobanks and national registers. Results from a separate meta-analysis (34,600 cases and 45,968 control individuals) were applied to calculate polygenic risk scores. Polygenic risk scores, parental socioeconomic status, and family psychiatric history. Odds ratios (ORs), attributable risks, liability R2 values, and proportions mediated. Schizophrenia was associated with the polygenic risk score (OR, 8.01; 95% CI, 4.53-14.16 for highest vs lowest decile), socioeconomic status (OR, 8.10; 95% CI, 3.24-20.3 for 6 vs no exposures), and a history of schizophrenia/psychoses (OR, 4.18; 95% CI, 2.57-6.79). The R2 values were 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for the polygenic risk score, 3.1% (95% CI, 1.9-4.3) for parental socioeconomic status, and 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for family history. Socioeconomic status and psychiatric history accounted for 45.8% (95% CI, 36.1-55.5) and 25.8% (95% CI, 21.2-30.5) of cases, respectively. There was an interaction between the polygenic risk score and family history

  3. Prediction of mortality using on-line, self-reported health data: empirical test of the RealAge score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R Hobbs

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called "RealAge" assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users. RESULTS: THE REALAGE SCORE IS ACCURATELY SCALED (HAZARD RATIOS: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084 and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847 in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814, perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820. CONCLUSION: The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population.

  4. Predicting treatment failure, death and drug resistance using a computed risk score among newly diagnosed TB patients in Tamaulipas, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelbary, B E; Garcia-Viveros, M; Ramirez-Oropesa, H; Rahbar, M H; Restrepo, B I

    2017-09-14

    The purpose of this study was to develop a method for identifying newly diagnosed tuberculosis (TB) patients at risk for TB adverse events in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Surveillance data between 2006 and 2013 (8431 subjects) was used to develop risk scores based on predictive modelling. The final models revealed that TB patients failing their treatment regimen were more likely to have at most a primary school education, multi-drug resistance (MDR)-TB, and few to moderate bacilli on acid-fast bacilli smear. TB patients who died were more likely to be older males with MDR-TB, HIV, malnutrition, and reporting excessive alcohol use. Modified risk scores were developed with strong predictability for treatment failure and death (c-statistic 0·65 and 0·70, respectively), and moderate predictability for drug resistance (c-statistic 0·57). Among TB patients with diabetes, risk scores showed moderate predictability for death (c-statistic 0·68). Our findings suggest that in the clinical setting, the use of our risk scores for TB treatment failure or death will help identify these individuals for tailored management to prevent these adverse events. In contrast, the available variables in the TB surveillance dataset are not robust predictors of drug resistance, indicating the need for prompt testing at time of diagnosis.

  5. Combining the ASA Physical Classification System and Continuous Intraoperative Surgical Apgar Score Measurement in Predicting Postoperative Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jering, Monika Zdenka; Marolen, Khensani N; Shotwell, Matthew S; Denton, Jason N; Sandberg, Warren S; Ehrenfeld, Jesse Menachem

    2015-11-01

    The surgical Apgar score predicts major 30-day postoperative complications using data assessed at the end of surgery. We hypothesized that evaluating the surgical Apgar score continuously during surgery may identify patients at high risk for postoperative complications. We retrospectively identified general, vascular, and general oncology patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Logistic regression methods were used to construct a series of predictive models in order to continuously estimate the risk of major postoperative complications, and to alert care providers during surgery should the risk exceed a given threshold. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of a model utilizing a continuously measured surgical Apgar score relative to models that use only preoperative clinical factors or continuously monitored individual constituents of the surgical Apgar score (i.e. heart rate, blood pressure, and blood loss). AUROC estimates were validated internally using a bootstrap method. 4,728 patients were included. Combining the ASA PS classification with continuously measured surgical Apgar score demonstrated improved discriminative ability (AUROC 0.80) in the pooled cohort compared to ASA (0.73) and the surgical Apgar score alone (0.74). To optimize the tradeoff between inadequate and excessive alerting with future real-time notifications, we recommend a threshold probability of 0.24. Continuous assessment of the surgical Apgar score is predictive for major postoperative complications. In the future, real-time notifications might allow for detection and mitigation of changes in a patient's accumulating risk of complications during a surgical procedure.

  6. The Envy of Scholars: Applying the Lessons of the Framingham Heart Study to the Prevention of Chronic Kidney Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter G. Wasser

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available During the past 50 years, a dramatic reduction in the mortality rate associated with cardiovascular disease has occurred in the US and other countries. Statistical modeling has revealed that approximately half of this reduction is the result of risk factor mitigation. The successful identification of such risk factors was pioneered and has continued with the Framingham Heart Study, which began in 1949 as a project of the US National Heart Institute (now part of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Decreases in total cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking, and physical inactivity account for 24%, 20%, 12%, and 5% reductions in the mortality rate, respectively. Nephrology was designated as a recognized medical professional specialty a few years later. Hemodialysis was first performed in 1943. The US Medicare End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD Program was established in 1972. The number of patients in the program increased from 5,000 in the first year to more than 500,000 in recent years. Only recently have efforts for risk factor identification, early diagnosis, and prevention of chronic kidney disease (CKD been undertaken. By applying the approach of the Framingham Heart Study to address CKD risk factors, we hope to mirror the success of cardiology; we aim to prevent progression to ESRD and to avoid the cardiovascular complications associated with CKD. In this paper, we present conceptual examples of risk factor modification for CKD, in the setting of this historical framework.

  7. The Envy of Scholars: Applying the Lessons of the Framingham Heart Study to the Prevention of Chronic Kidney Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasser, Walter G; Gil, Amnon; Skorecki, Karl L

    2015-07-30

    During the past 50 years, a dramatic reduction in the mortality rate associated with cardiovascular disease has occurred in the US and other countries. Statistical modeling has revealed that approximately half of this reduction is the result of risk factor mitigation. The successful identification of such risk factors was pioneered and has continued with the Framingham Heart Study, which began in 1949 as a project of the US National Heart Institute (now part of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute). Decreases in total cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking, and physical inactivity account for 24%, 20%, 12%, and 5% reductions in the mortality rate, respectively. Nephrology was designated as a recognized medical professional specialty a few years later. Hemodialysis was first performed in 1943. The US Medicare End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Program was established in 1972. The number of patients in the program increased from 5,000 in the first year to more than 500,000 in recent years. Only recently have efforts for risk factor identification, early diagnosis, and prevention of chronic kidney disease (CKD) been undertaken. By applying the approach of the Framingham Heart Study to address CKD risk factors, we hope to mirror the success of cardiology; we aim to prevent progression to ESRD and to avoid the cardiovascular complications associated with CKD. In this paper, we present conceptual examples of risk factor modification for CKD, in the setting of this historical framework.

  8. Clinical risk scoring system for predicting extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli infection in hospitalized patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kengkla, K; Charoensuk, N; Chaichana, M; Puangjan, S; Rattanapornsompong, T; Choorassamee, J; Wilairat, P; Saokaew, S

    2016-05-01

    Extended spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) has important implications for infection control and empiric antibiotic prescribing. This study aims to develop a risk scoring system for predicting ESBL-EC infection based on local epidemiology. The study retrospectively collected eligible patients with a positive culture for E. coli during 2011 to 2014. The risk scoring system was developed using variables independently associated with ESBL-EC infection through logistic regression-based prediction. Area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AuROC) was determined to confirm the prediction power of the model. Predictors for ESBL-EC infection were male gender [odds ratio (OR): 1.53], age ≥55 years (OR: 1.50), healthcare-associated infection (OR: 3.21), hospital-acquired infection (OR: 2.28), sepsis (OR: 1.79), prolonged hospitalization (OR: 1.88), history of ESBL infection within one year (OR: 7.88), prior use of broad-spectrum cephalosporins within three months (OR: 12.92), and prior use of other antibiotics within three months (OR: 2.14). Points scored ranged from 0 to 47, and were divided into three groups based on diagnostic performance parameters: low risk (score: 0-8; 44.57%), moderate risk (score: 9-11; 21.85%) and high risk (score: ≥12; 33.58%). The model displayed moderate power of prediction (AuROC: 0.773; 95% confidence interval: 0.742-0.805) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) = 13.29; P = 0.065). This tool may optimize the prescribing of empirical antibiotic therapy, minimize time to identify patients, and prevent spreading of ESBL-EC. Prior to adoption into routine clinical practice, further validation study of the tool is needed. Copyright © 2016 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Additive composite ABCG2, SLC2A9 and SLC22A12 scores of high-risk alleles with alcohol use modulate gout risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Hung-Pin; Chung, Chia-Min; Min-Shan Ko, Albert; Lee, Su-Shin; Lai, Han-Ming; Lee, Chien-Hung; Huang, Chung-Ming; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Ko, Ying-Chin

    2016-09-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the contribution of urate transporter genes and alcohol use to the risk of gout/tophi. Eight variants of ABCG2, SLC2A9, SLC22A12, SLC22A11 and SLC17A3 were genotyped in male individuals in a case-control study with 157 gout (33% tophi), 106 asymptomatic hyperuricaemia and 295 control subjects from Taiwan. The multilocus profiles of the genetic risk scores for urate gene variants were used to evaluate the risk of asymptomatic hyperuricaemia, gout and tophi. ABCG2 Q141K (T), SLC2A9 rs1014290 (A) and SLC22A12 rs475688 (C) under an additive model and alcohol use independently predicted the risk of gout (respective odds ratio for each factor=2.48, 2.03, 1.95 and 2.48). The additive composite Q141K, rs1014290 and rs475688 scores of high-risk alleles were associated with gout risk (P<0.0001). We observed the supramultiplicative interaction effect of genetic urate scores and alcohol use on gout and tophi risk (P for interaction=0.0452, 0.0033). The synergistic effect of genetic urate score 5-6 and alcohol use indicates that these combined factors correlate with gout and tophi occurrence.

  10. Prediction of Outcome After Emergency High-Risk Intra-abdominal Surgery Using the Surgical Apgar Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cihoric, Mirjana; Toft Tengberg, Line; Bay-Nielsen, Morten

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: With current literature quoting mortality rates up to 45%, emergency high-risk abdominal surgery has, compared with elective surgery, a significantly greater risk of death and major complications. The Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) is predictive of outcome in elective surgery, but has never...... been validated exclusively in an emergency setting. METHODS: A consecutive prospective single-center cohort study of 355 adults undergoing emergency high-risk abdominal surgery between June 2013 and May 2014 is presented. The primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcome measures were...... the incidence of both outcomes. Area under the curve was used to demonstrate the scores' discriminatory power. RESULTS: One hundred eighty-one (51.0%) patients developed minor or no complications. The overall incidence of major complications was 32.7% and the overall death rate was 16.3%. Risk of major...

  11. Escore de Framingham na avaliação do risco cardiovascular em diabéticos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Costa Larré

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo fue identificar el riesgo cardiovascular de diabéticos registrados por un Equipo de Salud Familiar. Estudio transversal, realizado en Aracaju, SE, Brasil, en octubre y noviembre de 2012. Se utilizó el score de Framingham en 80 diabéticos de ambos los sexos. Los participantes tenían entre 30 y 74 años, y la mayoría (70% era mujer. Por el score de Framingham, hubo mayor proporción (45,8% de alto riesgo entre los hombres y 41,1% de las mujeres presentaban medio riesgo de desencadenar enfermedades cardiovasculares. No se observaron diferencias estadísticamente significativas entre sexos y los niveles de LDL-colesterol y HDL-colesterol. Estuvieron presentes riesgo cardiovascular promedio entre mujeres y alto riesgo entre los hombres, lo que permitió apuntar posibilidad de desencadenar cambios cardiovasculares entre personas con diabetes en Atención Primaria de Salud. Es preciso adoptar estrategias de promoción de salud que permitan aumento de control del riesgo cardiovascular en la población asistida.

  12. Almanac 2012: Cardiovascular risk scores. The national society journals present selected research that has driven recent advances in clinical cardiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill P. Pell

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global risk scores use individual level information on non-modifiable risk factors (such as age, sex, ethnicity and family history and modifiable risk factors (such as smoking status and blood pressure to predict an individual’s absolute risk of an adverse event over a specified period of time in the future. Cardiovascular risk scores have two major uses in practice. First, they can be used to dichotomise people into a group whose baseline risk, and therefore potential absolute benefit, is sufficiently high to justify the costs and risks associated with an intervention (whether treatment or prevention and a group with a lower absolute risk to whom the intervention is usually denied. Second, they can be used to assess the effectiveness of an intervention (such as smoking cessation or antihypertensive treatment at reducing an individual’s risk of future adverse events. In this context, they can be helpful in informing patients, motivating them to change their lifestyle, and reinforcing the importance of continued compliance.

  13. Saturated Fat Intake Modulates the Association between an Obesity Genetic Risk Score and Body Mass Index in Two US Populations

    OpenAIRE

    P. Casas-Agustench; Arnett, DK; Smith, CE; Lai, CQ; Parnell, LD; Borecki, IB; Frazier-Wood, AC; Allison, M.; Chen, YDI; Taylor, KD; Rich, SS; Rotter, JI; Lee, Yc; Ordovás, JM

    2014-01-01

    © 2014 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Combining multiple genetic variants related to obesity into a genetic risk score (GRS) might improve identification of individuals at risk of developing obesity. Moreover, characterizing gene-diet interactions is a research challenge to establish dietary recommendations to individuals with higher predisposition to obesity. Our objective was to analyze the association between an obesity GRS and body mass index (BMI) in the Genetics of Lipid Lowering D...

  14. Genetic Association and Risk Scores in a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Meta-analysis of 16,707 Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Robert; Hobbs, Brian D; Zhou, Jin; Castaldi, Peter J; McGeachie, Michael J; Hardin, Megan E; Hawrylkiewicz, Iwona; Sliwinski, Pawel; Yim, Jae-Joon; Kim, Woo Jin; Kim, Deog K; Agusti, Alvar; Make, Barry J; Crapo, James D; Calverley, Peter M; Donner, Claudio F; Lomas, David A; Wouters, Emiel F; Vestbo, Jørgen; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Bakke, Per; Gulsvik, Amund; Litonjua, Augusto A; Sparrow, David; Paré, Peter D; Levy, Robert D; Rennard, Stephen I; Beaty, Terri H; Hokanson, John; Silverman, Edwin K; Cho, Michael H

    2017-07-01

    The heritability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cannot be fully explained by recognized genetic risk factors identified as achieving genome-wide significance. In addition, the combined contribution of genetic variation to COPD risk has not been fully explored. We sought to determine: (1) whether studies of variants from previous studies of COPD or lung function in a larger sample could identify additional associated variants, particularly for severe COPD; and (2) the impact of genetic risk scores on COPD. We genotyped 3,346 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2,588 cases (1,803 severe COPD) and 1,782 control subjects from four cohorts, and performed association testing with COPD, combining these results with existing genotyping data from 6,633 cases (3,497 severe COPD) and 5,704 control subjects. In addition, we developed genetic risk scores from SNPs associated with lung function and COPD and tested their discriminatory power for COPD-related measures. We identified significant associations between SNPs near PPIC (P = 1.28 × 10(-8)) and PPP4R4/SERPINA1 (P = 1.01 × 10(-8)) and severe COPD; the latter association may be driven by recognized variants in SERPINA1. Genetic risk scores based on SNPs previously associated with COPD and lung function had a modest ability to discriminate COPD (area under the curve, ∼0.6), and accounted for a mean 0.9-1.9% lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted for each additional risk allele. In a large genetic association analysis, we identified associations with severe COPD near PPIC and SERPINA1. A risk score based on combining genetic variants had modest, but significant, effects on risk of COPD and lung function.

  15. A competing-risk-based score for predicting twenty-year risk of incident diabetes: the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Ageing study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiangtong; Chen, Zhenghong; Fine, Jason Peter; Liu, Long; Wang, Anxin; Guo, Jin; Tao, Lixin; Mahara, Gehendra; Yang, Kun; Zhang, Jie; Tian, Sijia; Li, Haibin; Liu, Kuo; Luo, Yanxia; Zhang, Feng; Tang, Zhe; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Few risk tools have been proposed to quantify the long-term risk of diabetes among middle-aged and elderly individuals in China. The present study aimed to develop a risk tool to estimate the 20-year risk of developing diabetes while incorporating competing risks. A three-stage stratification random-clustering sampling procedure was conducted to ensure the representativeness of the Beijing elderly. We prospectively followed 1857 community residents aged 55 years and above who were free of diabetes at baseline examination. Sub-distribution hazards models were used to adjust for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. The cumulative incidence function of twenty-year diabetes event rates was 11.60% after adjusting for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. Age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, health status, and physical activity were selected to form the score. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.72–0.80), and the optimism-corrected AUC was 0.78 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.69–0.87) after internal validation by bootstrapping. The calibration plot showed that the actual diabetes risk was similar to the predicted risk. The cut-off value of the risk score was 19 points, marking mark the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients, which exhibited a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.65. PMID:27849048

  16. Coronary heart disease risk assessment and characterization of coronary artery disease using coronary CT angiography: comparison of asymptomatic and symptomatic groups

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Y. [Department of Radiology, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Y., E-mail: yookkim@ewha.ac.k [Department of Radiology, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Chung, I.-M. [Division of Cardiology in Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, J.; Park, H. [Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-08-15

    Aim: To evaluate the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) in relation to risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and assess plaque characteristics from coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography in asymptomatic and symptomatic patients. Materials and methods: Three hundred and ninety consecutive patients [asymptomatic group, n = 138; symptomatic group (atypical or non-anginal chest pain), n = 252] were retrospectively enrolled. They were subsequently classified into three CHD risk categories, based on the National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines, and 10 year risks of coronary events were calculated using Framingham risk score. CT was evaluated for stenosis, plaque composition, and coronary calcium scores. Results: CAD was observed in 42% of the asymptomatic group and 62% of the symptomatic group. In the former, the prevalence of CAD in low-, moderate- and high-risk subgroups was 21.4, 47.4 and 65%, respectively, and was 33.3, 74.4, and 72.4% in the symptomatic group. Framingham 10-year risks of coronary events were significantly higher in patients with CAD than in normal participants, and receiver operating characteristics curves showed that discriminatory power was poor in the asymptomatic group and symptomatic men, and good in symptomatic women. Of the participants in the asymptomatic group, 12% exhibited only non-calcified plaques and of the symptomatic group, 7% exhibited only non-calcified plaques. The coronary calcium score was significantly higher for significant stenosis than for non-significant stenosis in both groups. Conclusions: The prevalence of CAD was not negligible even in subgroups with low-to-moderate CHD risk. Additionally, the Framingham risk score was effective for predicting CAD only in symptomatic women. Coronary calcium scores correlated with significant stenosis; however, a sizeable percentage of both groups had only non-calcified plaques.

  17. Thromboembolism and bleeding risk scores and predictors of cardiac death in a population with atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Rose Mary Ferreira Lisboa da; Silva, Pollyana Ardavicius E; Lima, Marcos Correia; Sant'Anna, Lívia Tanure; Silva, Túlio Corrêa; Moreira, Pedro Henrique Vilela; Gandra, Robert Moreira; Cavalcanti, Túlio Ramos; Mourão, Plínio Henrique Vaz

    2017-07-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia, with risk of systemic embolism and death. It presents rheumatic etiology in up to 32% of developing countries, whose anticoagulation and evolution data are scarce. to determine the predictors of cardiac death considering the clinical profile, thromboembolism and bleeding scores of patients with AF of a single center, with high prevalence of rheumatic heart disease. 302 patients with AF were studied, mean age 58.1 years; 161 women; 96 pts with rheumatic etiology. Patients underwent clinical and laboratory evaluation, measurement of risk scores and the mean follow-up of 12.8 months. 174 were using warfarin. The averages of the HAS-BLED and ATRIA scores were 1.4 and 1.2, respectively. Percent time in therapeutic range of international normalized ratio was 45.8%. Thirty patients (9.9%) had cardiac death and 41 had some type of bleeding due to warfarin. By univariate analysis, there was statistical significance between cardiac death and permanent AF, blood pressure, systolic dysfunction, R2CHADS2, CCS, EHRA and HAS-BLED. There was no association with valvular AF. By multivariate analysis, systemic arterial and pulmonary artery pressures, classification CCS and systolic dysfunction showed statistical significance. There was no association between cardiac death and valvular AF. Independent predictors of cardiac death were low measures of blood pressure, higher score CCS classification and the presence of systolic ventricular dysfunction. A fibrilação atrial (FA) é uma arritmia comum, com risco de embolia sistêmica e morte. Apresenta etiologia reumática em até 32% dos países em desenvolvimento, cujos dados de anticoagulação e evolução são escassos. Verificar as variáveis preditoras de morte cardíaca (MC) conforme o perfil clínico, os escores de tromboembolismo e de sangramento dos pacientes com FA de uma única instituição universitária, com alta prevalência de cardiopatia reumática. Foram estudados 302

  18. Does Preendoscopy Rockall Score Safely Identify Low Risk Patients following Upper Gastrointestinal Haemorrhage?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew R. Johnston

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine if preendoscopy Rockall score (PERS enables safe outpatient management of New Zealanders with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage (UGIH. Methods. Retrospective analysis of adults with UGIH over 59 consecutive months. PERS, diagnosis, demographics, need for endoscopic therapy, transfusion or surgery and 30-day mortality and 14-day rebleeding rate, and sensitivity and specificity of PERS for enabling safe discharge preendoscopy were calculated. Results. 424 admissions with UGIH. Median age was 74.3 years (range 19–93 years, with 55.1% being males. 30-day mortality was 4.6% and 14-day rebleeding rate was 6.0%. Intervention was required in 181 (46.6%: blood transfusion (147 : 37.9%, endoscopic intervention (75 : 19.3%, and surgery (8 : 2.1%. 42 (10.8% had PERS = 0 with intervention required in 15 (35.7%. Females more frequently required intervention, OR 1.73 (CI: 1.12–2.69. PERS did not predict intervention but did predict 30-day mortality: each point increase equated to an increase in mortality of OR 1.46 (CI: 1.11–1.92. Taking NSAIDs/aspirin reduced 30-day mortality, OR 0.22 (CI: 0.08–0.60. Conclusion. PERS identifies 10.8% of those with UGIH as low risk but 35.7% required intervention or died. It has a limited role in assessing these patients and should not be used to identify those suitable for outpatient endoscopy.

  19. The relationship between Elder Risk Assessment (ERA scores and cardiac revascularization: a cohort study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharma S

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Saurabh Sharma,1 Shruti Datta,1 Shahyar Gharacholou,1,2 Shahzad K Siddique,3 Stephen S Cha,4 Paul Y Takahashi1,5,6 1Department of Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; 2Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; 3Shifa International Hospital, Islamabad, Pakistan; 4Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; 5Division of Primary Care Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; 6Kogod Center of Aging, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA Purpose: The aging population is predisposed to cardiovascular disease. Our goal was to determine the relationship between a higher Elder Risk Assessment (ERA score and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI, in adults over 60 years. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study in a primary care internal medicine practice. Patients included community-dwelling individuals aged 60 years or older on January 1, 2005. The primary outcome was a combined outcome of CABG and PCI in 2 years. The secondary outcome was mortality 5 years after CABG or PCI. The primary predictor variable was the score on the ERA Index, an instrument that predicts emergency room visits and hospitalization. The outcomes were obtained using administrative data from electronic medical records. The analysis included logistic regression, with odds ratios for the primary outcome and time-to-event analysis for mortality. Results: The records of 12,650 patients were studied. A total of 902 patients (7.1% had either CABG or PCI, with an average age of 74.5 years (±8.3 years. There were 205 patients (23% who experienced CABG or PCI in the highest-score group (top 10% compared with 29 patients (3% in the lowest score group, for an odds ratio of 15.4; 95% confidence inter