Detection and severity of coronary disease: comparison between Framingham and calcium scores using multi-slice tomography

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Rodriguez Gomez, Maria Liliana; Montenegro, Edison; Ruiz, Angela Maria; Ardila, Jaime

2011-01-01

Introduction: multiple studies have shown that the coronary calcium index is an independent, more accurate predictor of future coronary events in relation to traditional risk factors. However, these studies have not been conducted in populations of developing countries like Colombia. Objective: to compare the strength of association between the Framingham index and the coronary calcium score in detecting the presence and severity of coronary disease as defined by 64-channel multi-slice angio-CT in order to provide additional information for decision-making in our asymptomatic coronary population. Methodology: we reviewed the written reports of coronary angiography scans performed in past 3 years. Based on this information, bivariate (calculation of Spearman rho correlation coefficients) and multivariate (logistic regression) analyses were performed. Results: the coronary calcium score showed a higher correlation with the presence and severity of coronary disease, Spearman Rho coefficient, compared with the Framingham index, Spearman's Rho coefficient of 0.30 (p<0.001). The moderate Framingham index (10-19%) shows no strength of association with significant and non-significant coronary artery disease, OR = 2, 51 CI 95% (0.7-8.9) and OR = 2.3 CI 95% (0.86-6.15), respectively. Patients with calcium values = 100 showed significant strength of association, OR = 182, 95% (17.4 -190.2), with significant coronary disease compared with high Framingham index values (=20%), OR = 18.6, CI 95% (1.75-198). Conclusions: the coronary calcium score has a higher correlation with the presence and severity of coronary disease when compared with the Framingham index. There is a low correlation between the index and Framingham coronary calcium.

Escore de Framingham em motoristas de transportes coletivos urbanos de Teresina, Piauí Framingham score for public transportation drivers in the dity of Teresina, Piauí

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Maurício Batista Paes Landim

2006-09-01

Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Estimar o risco absoluto de contração de doença arterial coronariana, nos próximos 10 anos, em motoristas de transportes coletivos urbanos de Teresina, Piauí, segundo o escore de risco de Framingham. MÉTODOS: Foi realizado um estudo observacional, descritivo, transversal, aplicando-se o escore de Framingham, em 107 motoristas de transportes coletivos urbanos de Teresina, Piauí, para avaliação do grau de risco e sua associação com as variáveis previstas no mesmo, que foram: idade, colesterol total, colesterol HDL, pressão arterial sistólica, pressão arterial diastólica, presença de diabete melito e tabagismo. O teste de significância usado foi o c². Utilizou-se a razão de prevalência como medida de associação. RESULTADOS: O risco médio foi de 5%, com a maior parte situando-se na categoria de baixo risco (85,05%. As médias obtidas foram: 42 anos para a idade, colesterol total 200 mg%, colesterol HDL 49 mg%, pressão arterial sistólica 130 mmHg e pressão arterial diastólica 85 mmHg. As associações diabete melito, tabagismo e colesterol HDL, com o risco, não foram estatisticamente significantes, diferente do ocorrido com as outras variáveis, que tiveram grande influência no risco obtido. CONCLUSÃO: O risco absoluto médio estimado para os próximos 10 anos de doença arterial coronariana, em motoristas de transportes coletivos urbanos de Teresina, calculado pelo escore de Framingham, apresentou-se baixo. Uma parte considerável dos participantes da pesquisa (85,05% situou-se na categoria de baixo risco, ou seja, igual ou inferior a 10%.OBJECTIVE: To estimate the absolute risk of the public transportation drivers in the city of Teresina, Piauí, to develop coronary heart disease over the course of ten years based on the Framingham risk score. METHODS: An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study using the Framingham score was conducted with 107 public transportation drivers in the city of Teresina

Framingham risk score for estimation of 10-years of cardiovascular diseases risk in patients with metabolic syndrome.

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Jahangiry, Leila; Farhangi, Mahdieh Abbasalizad; Rezaei, Fatemeh

2017-11-13

There are a few studies evaluating the predictive value of Framingham risk score (FRS) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment in patients with metabolic syndrome in Iran. Because of the emerging high prevalence of CVD among Iranian population, it is important to predict its risk among populations with potential predictive tools. Therefore, the aim of the current study is to evaluate the FRS and its determinants in patients with metabolic syndrome. In the current cross-sectional study, 160 patients with metabolic syndrome diagnosed according to the National Cholesterol Education Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III criteria were enrolled. The FRS was calculated using a computer program by a previously suggested algorithm. Totally, 77.5, 16.3, and 6.3% of patients with metabolic syndrome were at low, intermediate, and high risk of CVD according to FRS categorization. The highest prevalence of all of metabolic syndrome components were in low CVD risk according to the FRS grouping (P metabolic syndrome and different FRS categorization among patients with metabolic syndrome were identified. High SBP and FSG were associated with meaningfully increased risk of CVD compared with other parameters. The study is not a trial; the registration number is not applicable.

Obesity phenotype and coronary heart disease risk as estimated by the Framingham risk score.

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Park, Yong Soon; Kim, Jun-Su

2012-03-01

There are conflicting data as to whether general or abdominal obesity is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk. This cross-sectional study involved 4,573 subjects aged 30 to 74 yr who participated in the Fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted in 2008. Obesity phenotype was classified by means of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and participants were categorized into 4 groups. Individuals' 10-yr risk of coronary heart diseases (CHD) was determined from the Framingham risk score. Subjects with obese WC had a higher proportion of high risk for CHD compared to the normal WC group, irrespective of BMI level. Relative to subjects with normal BMI/normal WC, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of normal BMI/obese WC group (OR 2.93 [1.70, 5.04] and OR 3.10 [1.49, 6.46]) for CHD risk in male were higher than obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.91 [1.40, 2.61] and OR 1.70 [1.16, 2.47]), whereas the adjusted ORs of obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.94 [1.24, 3.04] and OR 3.92 [1.75, 8.78]) were higher than the others in female. Subjects with obese BMI/normal WC were not significantly associated with 10-yr CHD risk in men (P = 0.449 and P = 0.067) and women (P = 0.702 and P = 0.658). WC is associated with increased CHD risk regardless of the level of BMI. Men with normal BMI and obese WC tend to be associated with CHD risk than those with obese BMI and obese WC.

Longtime napping is associated with cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham risk score in postmenopausal women.

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Li, Feng; Sun, Kan; Lin, Diaozhu; Qi, Yiqin; Li, Yan; Yan, Li; Ren, Meng

2016-09-01

Menopause can affect the physiological timing system, which could result in circadian rhythm changes and development of napping habits. Whether longtime napping in postmenopausal women is associated with cardiovascular disease is, however, still debated. The present study aims to investigate this association. We conducted a population-based study in 4,616 postmenopausal Chinese women. Information on sleep duration was self-reported. The Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score was calculated and used to identify participants at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors in postmenopausal women, such as age, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose, postload glucose, and hemoglobin A1C (all P for trend napping hours, and was 3.7%, 4.3%, and 6.9% in the no daytime napping group, the 0.1 to 1 hour group, and the more than 1 hour group, respectively (P for trend = 0.005). Compared with the no daytime napping group, postmenopausal women with daytime napping more than 1 hour had higher risk of CHD in both univariate (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI, 1.29-2.95) and multivariate (odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI, 1.03-2.52) logistic regression analyses. No statistically significant association was detected between night sleeping hours and high risk of CHD in postmenopausal participants. Daytime napping is positively associated with estimated 10-year CHD risk in postmenopausal Chinese women.

Association between duration of reproductive lifespan and Framingham risk score in postmenopausal women.

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Kim, Soo Hyun; Sim, Mu Yul; Park, Sat Byul

2015-12-01

The benefit of estrogen therapy in postmenopausal women is still uncertain. Based upon extensive observational data, it was believed that estrogen was cardioprotective. The relationship between the period of exposure to endogenous estrogens and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has not been studied in Korean women. To assess associations between reproductive lifespan and CVD by using the Framingham risk score (FRS) in postmenopausal Korean women. This cross-sectional, population-based study used data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) for the five years 2008-2012,after adjustment for relevant variables using complex sample analysis and data weighting. Among 25,534 women, 1973 women were enrolled, after excluding those 80 years of age (n=6194), those with diabetes, CVD or cancer (n=491), those with unrecorded physical measurements (n=7335), those with menarche age ≤8 years or ≥20 years (n=6194), and premenopausal women (n=3347). The FRS tended to show a significant negative correlation with the reproductive lifespan (preproductive lifespan and FRS (adjusted relative risk [RR] for reproductive years [shortest lifespan group] compared with 28-33 reproductive years [moderate lifespan group], 1.2, p33 reproductive years [longest lifespan group] compared with 28-33 reproductive years [moderate lifespan group], -0.42, p=0.011). A longer reproductive lifespan is associated with a lower estimated risk of CVD in the next 10 years in postmenopausal women. This result suggests that estrogen has a long-term protective effect against CVD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Beyond Framingham risk factors and coronary calcification: does aortic valve calcification improve risk prediction? The Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study.

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Kälsch, Hagen; Lehmann, Nils; Mahabadi, Amir A; Bauer, Marcus; Kara, Kaffer; Hüppe, Patricia; Moebus, Susanne; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Dragano, Nico; Schmermund, Axel; Stang, Andreas; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund

2014-06-01

Aortic valve calcification (AVC) is considered a manifestation of atherosclerosis. In this study, we investigated whether AVC adds to cardiovascular risk prediction beyond Framingham risk factors and coronary artery calcification (CAC). A total of 3944 subjects from the population based Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (59.3±7.7 years; 53% females) were evaluated for coronary events, stroke, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (including all plus CV death) over 9.1±1.9 years. CT scans were performed to quantify AVC. Cox proportional hazards regressions and Harrell's C were used to examine AVC as event predictor in addition to risk factors and CAC. During follow-up, 138 (3.5%) subjects experienced coronary events, 101 (2.6%) had a stroke, and 257 (6.5%) experienced CVD events. In subjects with AVC>0 versus AVC=0 the incidence of coronary events was 8.0% versus 3.0% (pAVC scores (pAVC scores (3rd tertile) remained independently associated with coronary events (HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.81) and CVD events (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.58). After further adjustment for CAC score, HRs were attenuated (coronary events 1.55, 95% CI 0.89 to 2.69; CVD events 1.29, 95% CI 0.83 to 2.00). When adding AVC to the model containing traditional risk factors and CAC, Harrell's C indices did not increase for coronary events (from 0.744 to 0.744) or CVD events (from 0.759 to 0.759). AVC is associated with incident coronary and CVD events independent of Framingham risk factors. However, AVC fails to improve cardiovascular event prediction over Framingham risk factors and CAC. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and the Framingham Risk Score in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Intervention Over the Last 17 Years by Gender: Time-trend Analysis From the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry

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Moo-Sik Lee

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives: This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI patients at the Mayo Clinic. Methods: We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Results: Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender distribution did not change. A significant trend towards higher body mass index and more prevalent hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes was found over time. The prevalence of current smokers remained unchanged. The prevalence of ever-smokers decreased among males, but increased among females. However, overall CVD risk according to the Framingham risk score (FRS and 10-year CVD risk significantly decreased. The use of most of medications elevated from 1994 to 2010, except for β-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors decreased after 2007 and 2006 in both baseline and discharge, respectively. Conclusions: Most of the major risk factors improved and the FRS and 10-year CVD risk declined in this population of PCI patients. However, obesity, history of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and medication use increased substantially. Improvements to blood pressure and lipid profile management because of medication use may have influenced the positive trends.

Quantifying the impact of using Coronary Artery Calcium Score for risk categorization instead of Framingham Score or European Heart SCORE in lipid lowering algorithms in a Middle Eastern population.

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Isma'eel, Hussain A; Almedawar, Mohamad M; Harbieh, Bernard; Alajaji, Wissam; Al-Shaar, Laila; Hourani, Mukbil; El-Merhi, Fadi; Alam, Samir; Abchee, Antoine

2015-10-01

The use of the Coronary Artery Calcium Score (CACS) for risk categorization instead of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or European Heart SCORE (EHS) to improve classification of individuals is well documented. However, the impact of reclassifying individuals using CACS on initiating lipid lowering therapy is not well understood. We aimed to determine the percentage of individuals not requiring lipid lowering therapy as per the FRS and EHS models but are found to require it using CACS and vice versa; and to determine the level of agreement between CACS, FRS and EHS based models. Data was collected for 500 consecutive patients who had already undergone CACS. However, only 242 patients met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. Risk stratification comparisons were conducted according to CACS, FRS, and EHS, and the agreement (Kappa) between them was calculated. In accordance with the models, 79.7% to 81.5% of high-risk individuals were down-classified by CACS, while 6.8% to 7.6% of individuals at intermediate risk were up-classified to high risk by CACS, with slight to moderate agreement. Moreover, CACS recommended treatment to 5.7% and 5.8% of subjects untreated according to European and Canadian guidelines, respectively; whereas 75.2% to 81.2% of those treated in line with the guidelines would not be treated based on CACS. In this simulation, using CACS for risk categorization warrants lipid lowering treatment for 5-6% and spares 70-80% from treatment in accordance with the guidelines. Current strong evidence from double randomized clinical trials is in support of guideline recommendations. Our results call for a prospective trial to explore the benefits/risks of a CACS-based approach before any recommendations can be made.

A Summary Score for the Framingham Heart Study Neuropsychological Battery.

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Downer, Brian; Fardo, David W; Schmitt, Frederick A

2015-10-01

To calculate three summary scores of the Framingham Heart Study neuropsychological battery and determine which score best differentiates between subjects classified as having normal cognition, test-based impaired learning and memory, test-based multidomain impairment, and dementia. The final sample included 2,503 participants. Three summary scores were assessed: (a) composite score that provided equal weight to each subtest, (b) composite score that provided equal weight to each cognitive domain assessed by the neuropsychological battery, and (c) abbreviated score comprised of subtests for learning and memory. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to determine which summary score best differentiated between the four cognitive states. The summary score that provided equal weight to each subtest best differentiated between the four cognitive states. A summary score that provides equal weight to each subtest is an efficient way to utilize all of the cognitive data collected by a neuropsychological battery. © The Author(s) 2015.

Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: A Comparison of the Framingham, PROCAM, and DAD Equations in HIV-Infected Persons

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Max Weyler Nery

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study aims to estimate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD and to assess the agreement between the Framingham, Framingham with aggravating factors, PROCAM, and DAD equations in HIV-infected patients. A cross-sectional study was conducted in an outpatient centre in Brazil. 294 patients older than 19 years were enrolled. Estimates of 10-year cardiovascular risk were calculated. The agreement between the CVD risk equations was assessed using Cohen's kappa coefficient. The participants' mean age was 36.8 years (SD = 10.3, 76.9% were men, and 66.3% were on antiretroviral therapy. 47.8% of the participants had abdominal obesity, 23.1% were current smokers, 20.0% had hypertension, and 2.0% had diabetes. At least one lipid abnormality was detected in 72.8%, and a low HDL-C level was the most common. The majority were classified as having low risk for CV events. The percentage of patients at high risk ranged from 0.4 to 5.7. The PROCAM score placed the lowest proportion of the patients into a high-risk group, and the Framingham equation with aggravating factors placed the highest proportion of patients into the high-risk group. Data concerning the comparability of different tools are informative for estimating the risk of CVD, but accuracy of the outcome predictions should also be considered.

Physical activity, the Framingham risk score and risk of coronary heart disease in men and women of the EPIC-Norfolk study.

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Arsenault, Benoit J; Rana, Jamal S; Lemieux, Isabelle; Després, Jean-Pierre; Wareham, Nicholas J; Kastelein, John J P; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Khaw, Kay-Tee

2010-03-01

Test the hypothesis that considering leisure-time and work-related physical activity habits in addition to the Framingham risk score (FRS) would result into better classification of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk than FRS alone. Prospective, population-based study of 9564 men and 12165 women aged 45-79 years followed for an average of 11.4 years. A modified FRS which takes into account physical activity (evaluated using a validated lifestyle questionnaire taking into account leisure-time and work-related physical activity) was computed. During follow-up, 2191 CHD events occurred. Among 3369 men who were classified as intermediate risk (event rate of 12.4%) according to the FRS, 413 were reclassified into the low-risk category and 279 were reclassified into the high-risk category after modification of the FRS. After reclassification of these men, CHD event rate was of 5.3% and 18.6%, respectively for men classified at low and high CHD risk. Among 4766 women initially classified as intermediate risk (event rate of 8.4%), 1282 were reclassified into the low-risk category whereas 1071 women were reclassified into the high-risk category. After reclassification of these women, CHD event rate was of 6.8% and 12.2%, respectively for women classified at low and high CHD risk. Results of the present study suggest that asking simple questions about leisure-time and work-related physical activity which can be rapidly obtained by any physician at no cost could be helpful in the estimation of patients' CHD risk.

Unique dietary patterns and chronic disease risk profiles of adult men: the Framingham nutrition studies.

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Millen, Barbara E; Quatromoni, Paula A; Pencina, Michael; Kimokoti, Ruth; Nam, Byung-H O; Cobain, Sonia; Kozak, Waldemar; Appugliese, Danielle P; Ordovas, Jose; D'Agostino, Ralph B

2005-11-01

To identify the dietary patterns of adult men and examine their relationships with nutrient intake and chronic disease risk over long-term follow-up. Baseline 145-item food frequency questionnaires from 1,666 Framingham Offspring-Spouse cohort men were used to identify comprehensive dietary patterns. Independent 3-day dietary records at baseline and 8 years later provided estimates of subjects' nutrient intake by dietary pattern. Chronic disease risk factor status was compared at baseline and 16-year follow-up across all male dietary patterns. Cluster analysis was applied to food frequency data to identify non-overlapping male dietary patterns. Analysis of covariance and logistic regression were used to compare nutrient intake, summary nutritional risk scores, and chronic disease risk status at baseline and follow-up by male dietary pattern. Five distinct and comprehensive dietary patterns of Framingham Offspring-Spouse men were identified and ordered according to overall nutritional risk: Transition to Heart Healthy, Higher Starch, Average Male, Lower Variety, and Empty Calories. Nutritional risk was high and varied by dietary pattern; key nutrient contrasts were stable over 8-year follow-up. Chronic disease risk also varied by dietary pattern and specific subgroup differences persisted over 16 years, notably rates of overweight/obesity and smoking. Quantitative cluster analysis applied to food frequency questionnaire data identified five distinct, comprehensive, and stable dietary patterns of adult Framingham Offspring-Spouse cohort men. The close associations between the dietary patterns, nutritional risk, and chronic disease profiles of men emphasize the importance of targeted preventive nutrition interventions to promote health in the male population.

Cardiovascular risk prediction in HIV-infected patients: comparing the Framingham, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD), Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for the Netherlands (SCORE-NL) and Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) risk prediction models.

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Krikke, M; Hoogeveen, R C; Hoepelman, A I M; Visseren, F L J; Arends, J E

2016-04-01

The aim of the study was to compare the predictions of five popular cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models, namely the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) model, the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) coronary heart disease (FHS-CHD) and general CVD (FHS-CVD) models, the American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD) model and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for the Netherlands (SCORE-NL) model. A cross-sectional design was used to compare the cumulative CVD risk predictions of the models. Furthermore, the predictions of the general CVD models were compared with those of the HIV-specific D:A:D model using three categories ( 20%) to categorize the risk and to determine the degree to which patients were categorized similarly or in a higher/lower category. A total of 997 HIV-infected patients were included in the study: 81% were male and they had a median age of 46 [interquartile range (IQR) 40-52] years, a known duration of HIV infection of 6.8 (IQR 3.7-10.9) years, and a median time on ART of 6.4 (IQR 3.0-11.5) years. The D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models gave a lower cumulative CVD risk, compared with that of the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models. Comparing the general CVD models with the D:A:D model, the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models only classified 65% and 79% of patients, respectively, in the same category as did the D:A:D model. However, for the ASCVD and SCORE-NL models, this percentage was 89% and 87%, respectively. Furthermore, FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD attributed a higher CVD risk to 33% and 16% of patients, respectively, while this percentage was D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models. This could have consequences regarding overtreatment, drug-related adverse events and drug-drug interactions. © 2015 British HIV Association.

Changes in erectile dysfunction over time in relation to Framingham cardiovascular risk in the Boston Area Community Health (BACH) Survey.

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Fang, Shona C; Rosen, Raymond C; Vita, Joseph A; Ganz, Peter; Kupelian, Varant

2015-01-01

Erectile dysfunction (ED) is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, the association between change in ED status over time and future underlying CVD risk is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between change in ED status and Framingham CVD risk, as well change in Framingham risk. We studied 965 men free of CVD in the Boston Area Community Health (BACH) Survey, a longitudinal cohort study with three assessments. ED was assessed with the five-item International Index of Erectile Function at BACH I (2002-2005) and BACH II (2007-2010) and classified as no ED/transient ED/persistent ED. CVD risk was assessed with 10-year Framingham CVD risk algorithm at BACH I and BACH III (2010-2012). Linear regression models controlled for baseline age, socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, as well as baseline Framingham risk. Models were also stratified by age (≥/< 50 years). Framingham CVD risk and change in Framingham CVD risk were the main outcome measures. Transient and persistent ED was significantly associated with increased Framingham risk and change in risk over time in univariate and age-adjusted models. In younger men, persistent ED was associated with a Framingham risk that was 1.58 percentage points higher (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.11, 3.06) and in older men, a Framingham risk that was 2.54 percentage points higher (95% CI: -1.5, 6.59), compared with those without ED. Change in Framingham risk over time was also associated with transient and persistent ED in men <50 years, but not in older men. Data suggest that even after taking into account other CVD risk factors, transient and persistent ED is associated with Framingham CVD risk and a greater increase in Framingham risk over time, particularly in younger men. Findings further support clinical assessment of CVD risk in men presenting with ED, especially those under 50 years. © 2014 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

A Clinical Risk Score for Atrial Fibrillation in a Biracial Prospective Cohort (From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study)

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Chamberlain, Alanna M.; Agarwal, Sunil K.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Chambless, Lloyd E.; Crow, Richard; Ambrose, Marietta; Alonso, Alvaro

2011-01-01

A risk score for AF has been developed by the Framingham Heart Study; however the applicability of this risk score, derived from whites, to predict new-onset AF in non-whites is uncertain. Therefore, we developed a 10-year risk score for new-onset AF using risk factors commonly measured in clinical practice using 14,546 individuals from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective community-based cohort of blacks and whites in the United States. During 10 years of follow-up, 5...

Does present use of cardiovascular medication reflect elevated cardiovascular risk scores estimated ten years ago? A population based longitudinal observational study

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Straand Jørund

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is desirable that those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease should have priority for preventive measures, eg. treatment with prescription drugs to modify their risk. We wanted to investigate to what extent present use of cardiovascular medication (CVM correlates with cardiovascular risk estimated by three different risk scores (Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK ten years ago. Methods Prospective logitudinal observational study of 20 252 participants in The Hordaland Health Study born 1950-57, not using CVM in 1997-99. Prescription data obtained from The Norwegian Prescription Database in 2008. Results 26% of men and 22% of women aged 51-58 years had started to use some CVM during the previous decade. As a group, persons using CVM scored significantly higher on the risk algorithms Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK compared to those not treated. 16-20% of men and 20-22% of women with risk scores below the high-risk thresholds for the three risk scores were treated with CVM, while 60-65% of men and 25-45% of women with scores above the high-risk thresholds received no treatment. Among women using CVM, only 2.2% (NORRISK, 4.4% (SCORE and 14.5% (Framingham had risk scores above the high-risk values. Low education, poor self-reported general health, muscular pains, mental distress (in females only and a family history of premature cardiovascular disease correlated with use of CVM. Elevated blood pressure was the single factor most strongly predictive of CVM treatment. Conclusion Prescription of CVM to middle-aged individuals by large seems to occur independently of estimated total cardiovascular risk, and this applies especially to females.

Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

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Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

2010-11-01

US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

Hemoglobin A1c Is Positively Correlated with Framingham Risk Score in Older, Apparently Healthy Nondiabetic Korean Adults

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Ji Hye Shin

2013-06-01

Full Text Available BackgroundSeveral studies have suggested that elevated levels of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD in nondiabetic individuals. However, it is unclear whether HbA1c levels can serve as a simple screening marker for increased CVD risk in nondiabetic individuals. Our objective was to evaluate the relationship between HbA1c levels and CVD risk using the Framingham risk score (FRS in older, apparently healthy nondiabetic Korean adults.MethodsWe retrospectively studied 2,879 Korean adults between the ages of 40 and 79 who underwent voluntary health check-ups at the Health Promotion Center of our hospital from July 2009 to June 2011. Subjects were subdivided based on their HbA1c levels into four groups: tertiles within the HbA1c normal tolerance range and a group for subjects with an increased risk for diabetes (IRD.ResultsThe mean FRS for the upper tertile (9.6±3.8 group was significantly higher than that of the middle tertile (8.4±4.0 and lower tertile (7.6±3.8 groups. In addition, FRS was highest in the IRD group (10.5±3.7. Multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated that HbA1c levels exhibited a significant positive correlation with FRS when adjusted for confounding variables in all subjects (β±standard error [SE], 0.018±0.002; R2, 0.131, women (β±SE, 0.023±0.003; R2, 0.170, and men (β±SE, 0.016±0.004; R2, 0.109.ConclusionHbA1c levels were positively correlated with FRS in older, apparently healthy nondiabetic Korean adults. We propose that HbA1c levels may reflect CVD risk in nondiabetic individuals.

The Framingham Risk Function Underestimated Absolute Coronary Heart Disease Risk in Czech Men

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Reissigová, Jindra; Zvárová, Jana

2007-01-01

Roč. 46, č. 1 (2007), s. 43-49 ISSN 0026-1270 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : external validation * Framingham risk function * coronary heart disease Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.451, year: 2007

High prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis in Brazilian postmenopausal women with low and intermediate risk by Framingham score.

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Petisco, Ana Claudia Gomes Pereira; Assef, Jorge Eduardo; de Jesus, Carlos Alberto; Saleh, Mohamed Hassan; Barbosa, Jose Eduardo Martins; Costa de Souza Le Bihan, David; Pinto, Ibraim Masciarelli França; Rolim Fernandes Fontes Pedra, Simone; Barretto, Rodrigo Bellio de Mattos; Sousa, Amanda Guerra de Moraes Rego

2017-03-01

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality among women in several countries. Early detection of subclinical atherosclerosis (SA) could enable the adoption of preventive measures to avoid cardiovascular events. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of SA in Brazilian asymptomatic postmenopausal women in Framingham Risk Score (FRS) low and intermediate groups. Computed tomography (CT) and ultrasound (US) scans were performed in 138 asymptomatic postmenopausal women (56.1 ± 4.9 years of age) to survey for coronary artery and aortic calcification (CT scan) and assess carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and identify carotid plaques (US). The mean FRS was 2.64 ± 2.13 %. The prevalence of increased CIMT, carotid plaques, increased CIMT and/or plaques, coronary artery calcification (CAC) >0 and aortic calcification (AC) were, respectively, 45.7, 37.7, 62.3, 23.9 and 45.7 %. Normal imaging tests were found in 22.4 %. SA, defined as at least one abnormal imaging test, was associated with age, FRS, waist-to-rip ratio, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, HDL-c and ApoA1 levels, and ApoA1/ApoB ratio. In logistic regression, SA was associated with higher age (OR 1.108, 95 % CI 1.010-1.215, p = 0.029) and lower ApoA1 levels (OR 0.979, 95 % CI 0.960-0.998, p = 0.029). SA was prevalent in Brazilian postmenopausal women with low and intermediate risk groups (FRS) and was associated with higher age and lower levels of ApoA1. Carotid atherosclerosis was the most common presentation of SA in this group.

Prognostic Value of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Compared with Risk Scores in Stable Cardiovascular Disease.

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Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Trenk, Dietmar; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Hochholzer, Willibald; Katus, Hugo A

2017-05-01

Risk stratification of patients with cardiovascular disease remains challenging despite consideration of risk scores. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in a low-risk outpatient population presenting for nonsecondary and secondary prevention. All-cause mortality, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke (end point 2), and a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, stroke and rehospitalization for acute coronary syndrome, and decompensated heart failure (end point 3) were defined. The prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on index visit was compared with the PROCAM score and 3 FRAMINGHAM subscores. In 693 patients with a median follow-up of 796 days, we observed 16 deaths, 32 patients with end point 2, and 83 patients with end point 3. All risk scores performed better in the prediction of all-cause mortality in nonsecondary prevention (area under the curve [AUC]: PROCAM: 0.922 vs 0.523, P = .001, consistent for all other scores). In secondary prevention, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T outperformed all risk scores in the prediction of all-cause mortality (ΔAUC: PROCAM: 0.319, P risk scores. Our findings on the prediction of all-cause mortality compared with the FRAMINGHAM-Hard Coronary Heart Disease score were confirmed in an independent validation cohort on 2046 patients. High-sensitivity troponin T provides excellent risk stratification regarding all-cause mortality and all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke in a secondary prevention cohort in whom risk scores perform poorly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

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Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

2017-09-01

The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

Validity of the Framingham point scores in the elderly: results from the Rotterdam study.

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Koller, Michael T; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Wolbers, Marcel; Stijnen, Theo; Bucher, Heiner C; Hunink, M G Myriam; Witteman, Jacqueline C M

2007-07-01

The National Cholesterol Education Program recommends assessing 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in individuals free of established CHD with the Framingham Point Scores (FPS). Individuals with a risk >20% are classified as high risk and are candidates for preventive intervention. We aimed to validate the FPS in a European population of elderly subjects. Subjects free of established CHD at baseline were selected from the Rotterdam study, a population-based cohort of subjects 55 years or older in The Netherlands. We studied calibration, discrimination (c-index), and the accuracy of high-risk classifications. Events consisted of fatal CHD and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Among 6795 subjects, 463 died because of CHD and 336 had nonfatal myocardial infarction. Predicted 10-year risk of CHD was on average well calibrated for women (9.9% observed vs 10.1% predicted) but showed substantial overestimation in men (14.3% observed vs 19.8% predicted), particularly with increasing age. This resulted in substantial number of false-positive classifications (specificity 70%) in men. In women, discrimination of the FPS was better than that in men (c-index 0.73 vs 0.63, respectively). However, because of the low baseline risk of CHD and limited discriminatory power, only 33% of all CHD events occurred in women classified as high risk. The FPS need recalibration for elderly men with better incorporation of the effect of age. In elderly women, FPS perform reasonably well. However, maintaining the rational of the high-risk threshold requires better performing models for a population with low incidence of CHD.

Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile to Reflect Temporal Trends.

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Dufouil, Carole; Beiser, Alexa; McLure, Leslie A; Wolf, Philip A; Tzourio, Christophe; Howard, Virginia J; Westwood, Andrew J; Himali, Jayandra J; Sullivan, Lisa; Aparicio, Hugo J; Kelly-Hayes, Margaret; Ritchie, Karen; Kase, Carlos S; Pikula, Aleksandra; Romero, Jose R; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Samieri, Cécilia; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Chêne, Genevieve; Howard, George; Seshadri, Sudha

2017-03-21

Age-adjusted stroke incidence has decreased over the past 50 years, likely as a result of changes in the prevalence and impact of various stroke risk factors. An updated version of the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) might better predict current risks in the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) and other cohorts. We compared the accuracy of the standard (old) and of a revised (new) version of the FSRP in predicting the risk of all-stroke and ischemic stroke and validated this new FSRP in 2 external cohorts, the 3C (3 Cities) and REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) studies. We computed the old FSRP as originally described and a new model that used the most recent epoch-specific risk factor prevalence and hazard ratios for individuals ≥55 years of age and for the subsample ≥65 years of age (to match the age range in REGARDS and 3C studies, respectively) and compared the efficacy of these models in predicting 5- and 10-year stroke risks. The new FSRP was a better predictor of current stroke risks in all 3 samples than the old FSRP (calibration χ 2 of new/old FSRP: in men: 64.0/12.1, 59.4/30.6, and 20.7/12.5; in women: 42.5/4.1, 115.4/90.3, and 9.8/6.5 in FHS, REGARDS, and 3C, respectively). In the REGARDS, the new FSRP was a better predictor among whites compared with blacks. A more contemporaneous, new FSRP better predicts current risks in 3 large community samples and could serve as the basis for examining geographic and racial differences in stroke risk and the incremental diagnostic utility of novel stroke risk factors. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Therapeutic implications of selecting the SCORE (European versus the D'AGOSTINO (American risk charts for cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

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Giné-Garriga Maria

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background No comparisons have been made of scales estimating cardiovascular mortality and overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The study objectives were to assess the agreement between the Framingham-D'Agostino cardiovascular risk (CVR scale and the chart currently recommended in Europe (SCORE with regard to identification of patients with high CVR, and to describe the discrepancies between them and the attendant implications for the treatment of hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. Methods A total of 474 hypertensive patients aged 40–65 years monitored in primary care were enrolled into the study. CVR was assessed using the Framingham-D'Agostino scale, which estimates the overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk, and the SCORE chart, which estimates the cardiovascular mortality risk. Cardiovascular risk was considered to be high for values ≥ 20% and ≥ 5% according to the Framingham-D'Agostino and SCORE charts respectively. Kappa statistics was estimated for agreement in classification of patients with high CVR. The therapeutic recommendations in the 2007 European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention were followed. Results Mean patient age was 54.1 (SD 7.3, and 58.4% were males. A high CVR was found in 17.5% using the SCORE chart (25.3% males, 6.6% females and in 32.7% using the D'Agostino method (56.9% males, 12,7% females. Kappa coefficient was 0.52, and increased to 0.68 when the high CVR threshold was established at 29% according to D'Agostino. Hypertensive patients with high SCORE and non-high D'Agostino (1.7% were characterized by an older age, diabetes, and a lower atherogenic index, while the opposite situation (16.9% was associated to males, hyperlipidaemia, and a higher atherogenic index. Variables with a greater weight in discrepancies were sex and smoking. A 32.0% according to SCORE and 33.5% according to D'Agostino would be candidates to receive antihypertensive treatment, and 15.8% and

A Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile to Reflect Temporal Trends

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Dufouil, Carole; Beiser, Alexa; McLure, Leslie A.; Wolf, Philip A.; Tzourio, Christophe; Howard, Virginia J; Westwood, Andrew J.; Himali, Jayandra J.; Sullivan, Lisa; Aparicio, Hugo J.; Kelly-Hayes, Margaret; Ritchie, Karen; Kase, Carlos S.; Pikula, Aleksandra; Romero, Jose R.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Samieri, Cécilia; Vasan, Ramachandran S.; Chêne, Genevieve; Howard, George; Seshadri, Sudha

2017-01-01

Background Age-adjusted stroke incidence has decreased over the past 50 years, likely due to changes in the prevalence and impact of various stroke risk factors. An updated version of the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) might better predict current risks in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) and other cohorts. We compared the accuracy of the standard (Old), and of a revised (New) version of the FSRP in predicting the risk of all-stroke and ischemic stroke, and validated this new FSRP in two external cohorts, the 3 Cities (3C) and REGARDS studies. Methods We computed the old FSRP as originally described, and a new model that used the most recent epoch-specific risk factors' prevalence and hazard-ratios for persons ≥ 55 years and for the subsample ≥ 65 years (to match the age range in REGARDS and 3C studies respectively), and compared the efficacy of these models in predicting 5- and 10-year stroke risks. Results The new FSRP was a better predictor of current stroke risks in all three samples than the old FSRP (Calibration chi-squares of new/old FSRP: in men 64.0/12.1, 59.4/30.6 and 20.7/12.5; in women 42.5/4.1, 115.4/90.3 and 9.8/6.5 in FHS, REGARDS and 3C, respectively). In the REGARDS, the new FSRP was a better predictor among whites compared to blacks. Conclusions A more contemporaneous, new FSRP better predicts current risks in 3 large community samples and could serve as the basis for examining geographic and racial differences in stroke risk and the incremental diagnostic utility of novel stroke risk factors. PMID:28159800

Differential incremental value of ultrasound carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, and cardiac calcium to predict angiographic coronary artery disease across Framingham risk score strata in the APRES multicentre study.

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Gaibazzi, Nicola; Rigo, Fausto; Facchetti, Rita; Carerj, Scipione; Giannattasio, Cristina; Moreo, Antonella; Mureddu, Gian Francesco; Salvetti, Massimo; Grolla, Elisabetta; Faden, Giacomo; Cesana, Francesca; Faggiano, Pompilio

2016-09-01

According to recent data, more accurate selection of patients undergoing coronary angiography for suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) is needed. From the Active PREvention Study multicentre prospective study, we further analyse whether carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid plaques (cPL), and echocardiographic cardiac calcium score (eCS) have incremental discriminatory and reclassification predictive value for CAD over clinical risk score in subjects undergoing coronary angiography, specifically depending on their low, intermediate, or high class of clinical risk. In eight centres, 445 subjects without history of prior CAD but with chest pain of recent onset and/or a positive/inconclusive stress test for ischaemia prospectively underwent clinically indicated elective coronary angiography after cardiac and carotid ultrasound assessments with measurements of cIMT, cPL, and eCS. The study population was divided into subjects at low (10%), intermediate (10-20%), and high (>20%) Framingham risk score (FRS). Ultrasound parameters were tested for their incremental value to predict CAD over FRS, in each pre-test risk category. No significant difference could be appreciated between the discrimination value of FRS and Diagnostic Imaging for Coronary Artery Disease score for the presence of CAD. eCS or cPL demonstrated significant incremental prediction over FRS, consistently in the three FRS categories (P risk subjects, in whom cPL was apparently not incremental over FRS, and eCS was only of borderline significance for better discrimination. Ultrasound eCS and cPL assessments were significant predictors of angiographic CAD in patients without prior CAD but with signs or symptoms suspect for CAD, independently and incrementally to FRS, across all pre-test risk probability strata, although in high-risk subjects, only eCS maintained an incremental value. The use of cIMT was not significantly incrementally useful in any FRS risk category. Published on behalf of the

Association of Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring parameters with the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile.

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Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Pikilidou, Maria; Katsanos, Aristeidis H; Stamatelopoulos, Kimon; Michas, Fotios; Lykka, Aikaterini; Zompola, Christina; Filippatou, Angeliki; Boviatsis, Efstathios; Voumvourakis, Konstantinos; Zakopoulos, Nikolaos; Manios, Efstathios

2017-09-15

The Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) is a novel and reliable tool for estimating the 10-year probability for incident stroke in stroke-free individuals, while the predictive value of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) for first-ever and recurrent stroke has been well established. We sought to evaluate cross-sectionally the association of ABPM parameters with FSRP score in a large sample of 2343 consecutive stroke-free individuals (mean age: 56.0±12.9, 49.1% male) who underwent 24-hour ABPM. True hypertensives showed significantly higher FSRP (11.2±5.0) compared to the normotensives (8.2±5.0, pbest fitting model for predicting FSRP (R 2 =24.6%) on multiple linear regression analyses after adjustment for vascular risk factors not included in FSRP comprised the following parameters in descending order: 24-hour PP (β=0.349, p<0.001), daytime SBP variability (β=0.124, p<0.001), 24-hour HR variability (β=-0.091, p<0.001), mean 24-hour HR (β=-0.107, p<0.001), BMI (β=0.081, p<0.001) and dipping percentage (β=-0.063, p=0.001). 24-hour PP and daytime SBP variability are the two ABPM parameters that were more strongly associated with FSRP-score. Reverse dippers had the highest FSRP among all dipping status profiles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

State of the Art Coronary Heart Disease Risk Estimation based on the Framingham Heart Study

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Reissigová, Jindra; Tomečková, Marie

2005-01-01

Roč. 13, č. 4 (2005), s. 180-186 ISSN 0022-1732 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : Framingham heart study * coronary heart disease * risk validation study * calibration * discrimination Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

Cardiovascular disease risk score prediction models for women and its applicability to Asians

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Goh LGH

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Louise GH Goh,1 Satvinder S Dhaliwal,1 Timothy A Welborn,2 Peter L Thompson,2–4 Bruce R Maycock,1 Deborah A Kerr,1 Andy H Lee,1 Dean Bertolatti,1 Karin M Clark,1 Rakhshanda Naheed,1 Ranil Coorey,1 Phillip R Della5 1School of Public Health, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia; 2Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, Perth, WA, Australia; 3School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; 4Harry Perkins Institute for Medical Research, Perth, WA, Australia; 5School of Nursing and Midwifery, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia Purpose: Although elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors are associated with a higher risk of developing heart conditions across all ethnic groups, variations exist between groups in the distribution and association of risk factors, and also risk levels. This study assessed the 10-year predicted risk in a multiethnic cohort of women and compared the differences in risk between Asian and Caucasian women. Methods: Information on demographics, medical conditions and treatment, smoking behavior, dietary behavior, and exercise patterns were collected. Physical measurements were also taken. The 10-year risk was calculated using the Framingham model, SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation risk chart for low risk and high risk regions, the general CVD, and simplified general CVD risk score models in 4,354 females aged 20–69 years with no heart disease, diabetes, or stroke at baseline from the third Australian Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Country of birth was used as a surrogate for ethnicity. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare risk levels between ethnic groups. Results: Asian women generally had lower risk of CVD when compared to Caucasian women. The 10-year predicted risk was, however, similar between Asian and Australian women, for some models. These findings were

Predicting Risk of Cognitive Decline in Very Old Adults Using Three Models: The Framingham Stroke Risk Profile; the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia Model; and Oxi-Inflammatory Biomarkers.

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Harrison, Stephanie L; de Craen, Anton J M; Kerse, Ngaire; Teh, Ruth; Granic, Antoneta; Davies, Karen; Wesnes, Keith A; den Elzen, Wendy P J; Gussekloo, Jacobijn; Kirkwood, Thomas B L; Robinson, Louise; Jagger, Carol; Siervo, Mario; Stephan, Blossom C M

2017-02-01

To examine the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP); the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia (CAIDE) risk score, and oxi-inflammatory load (cumulative risk score of three blood biomarkers-homocysteine, interleukin-6, C-reactive protein) for associations with cognitive decline using three cohort studies of very old adults and to examine whether incorporating these biomarkers with the risk scores can affect the association with cognitive decline. Three longitudinal, population-based cohort studies. Newcastle-upon-Tyne, United Kingdom; Leiden, the Netherlands; and Lakes and Bay of Plenty District Health Board areas, New Zealand. Newcastle 85+ Study participants (n = 616), Leiden 85-plus Study participants (n = 444), and Life and Living in Advanced Age, a Cohort Study in New Zealand (LiLACS NZ Study) participants (n = 396). FSRP, CAIDE risk score, oxi-inflammatory load, FSRP incorporating oxi-inflammatory load, and CAIDE risk score incorporating oxi-inflammatory load. Oxi-inflammatory load could be calculated only in the Newcastle 85+ and the Leiden 85-plus studies. Measures of global cognitive function were available for all three data sets. Domain-specific measures were available for the Newcastle 85+ and the Leiden 85-plus studies. Meta-analysis of pooled results showed greater risk of incident global cognitive impairment with higher FSRP (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.98), CAIDE (HR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.09-2.14), and oxi-inflammatory load (HR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.04-2.88) scores. Adding oxi-inflammatory load to the risk scores increased the risk of cognitive impairment for the FSRP (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.17-2.33) and the CAIDE model (HR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.39-2.67). Adding oxi-inflammatory load to cardiovascular risk scores may be useful for determining risk of cognitive impairment in very old adults. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

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Elaine Amaral de Paula

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

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Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

2015-03-01

In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Predictive value of updating Framingham risk scores with novel risk markers in the U.S. general population.

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Bart S Ferket

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT, high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP, and ankle-brachial index (ABI are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2003-2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male, 70% (80% were at low (<10%, 19% (14% at intermediate (≥10-<20%, and 11% (6% at high (≥20% 10-year CVD (CHD risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02-0.19. The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01-0.03 with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38% moved to low and 22% (30% to high CVD (CHD risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. CONCLUSIONS: Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies.

Predictive Value of Updating Framingham Risk Scores with Novel Risk Markers in the U.S. General Population

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Hunink, M. G. Myriam; Agarwal, Isha; Kavousi, Maryam; Franco, Oscar H.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Max, Wendy; Fleischmann, Kirsten E.

2014-01-01

Background According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP), and ankle-brachial index (ABI) are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. Methods and Findings Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male), 70% (80%) were at low (risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02–0.19). The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01–0.03) with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38%) moved to low and 22% (30%) to high CVD (CHD) risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. Conclusions Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies. PMID:24558385

What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

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Pletcher Mark J

2004-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female, we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance, her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years. In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy.

siMS Score: Simple Method for Quantifying Metabolic Syndrome.

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Soldatovic, Ivan; Vukovic, Rade; Culafic, Djordje; Gajic, Milan; Dimitrijevic-Sreckovic, Vesna

2016-01-01

To evaluate siMS score and siMS risk score, novel continuous metabolic syndrome scores as methods for quantification of metabolic status and risk. Developed siMS score was calculated using formula: siMS score = 2*Waist/Height + Gly/5.6 + Tg/1.7 + TAsystolic/130-HDL/1.02 or 1.28 (for male or female subjects, respectively). siMS risk score was calculated using formula: siMS risk score = siMS score * age/45 or 50 (for male or female subjects, respectively) * family history of cardio/cerebro-vascular events (event = 1.2, no event = 1). A sample of 528 obese and non-obese participants was used to validate siMS score and siMS risk score. Scores calculated as sum of z-scores (each component of metabolic syndrome regressed with age and gender) and sum of scores derived from principal component analysis (PCA) were used for evaluation of siMS score. Variants were made by replacing glucose with HOMA in calculations. Framingham score was used for evaluation of siMS risk score. Correlation between siMS score with sum of z-scores and weighted sum of factors of PCA was high (r = 0.866 and r = 0.822, respectively). Correlation between siMS risk score and log transformed Framingham score was medium to high for age groups 18+,30+ and 35+ (0.835, 0.707 and 0.667, respectively). siMS score and siMS risk score showed high correlation with more complex scores. Demonstrated accuracy together with superior simplicity and the ability to evaluate and follow-up individual patients makes siMS and siMS risk scores very convenient for use in clinical practice and research as well.

Do not fear the Framingham: Practical application to properly evaluate and modify cardiovascular risk in commercial divers.

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Suresh, Rahul; Pavela, James; Kus, Marcus S; Alleman, Tony; Sanders, Robert

2018-01-01

In April 2016 the Association of Diving Contractors International (ADCI) consensus guidelines began recommending annual cardiovascular risk stratification of commercial divers using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). For those at elevated risk, further testing is recommended. This approach has raised concerns about potential operational and financial impacts. However, the prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk and need for additional testing among commercial divers is not known. Clinical data required to calculate the FRS was abstracted for 190 commercial divers in two cohorts. Population demographics, FRS distribution, contributions of risk factors and effect of interventions on reducing risk-factor burden were assessed. Mean FRS score was 1.68 ± 6.35 points, with 13 divers (6.8%) at intermediate risk and none at high 10-year risk. In these 13 divers, the mean contributions to the FRS were from age (6.5 points), cholesterol (3.1 pts.), smoking (1.3 pts.), highdensity lipoprotein (1 pt.), and systolic blood pressure (0.8 pts). The youngest age group had a significantly higher modifiable risk core than the oldest age group (5.87 vs. 1.2 points, P ⟨ 0.001). All 13 intermediate risk divers could have been reclassified as low-risk with successful treatment of modifiable risk factors. The prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk among commercial divers is low, and treatment of modifiable risk factors could reclassify those at intermediate risk to low risk. Therefore, FRS implementation coupled with intensive risk-reduction strategies for at risk-divers may help improve diver health and prolong the careers of divers while limiting the need for additional testing and adverse operational impact. Copyright© Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society.

Does quantifying epicardial and intrathoracic fat with noncontrast computed tomography improve risk stratification beyond calcium scoring alone?

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Forouzandeh, Farshad; Chang, Su Min; Muhyieddeen, Kamil; Zaid, Rashid R; Trevino, Alejandro R; Xu, Jiaqiong; Nabi, Faisal; Mahmarian, John J

2013-01-01

Noncontrast cardiac computed tomography allows calculation of coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and measurement of epicardial adipose tissue (EATv) and intrathoracic fat (ITFv) volumes. It is unclear whether fat volume information contributes to risk stratification. Cardiac computed tomography was performed in 760 consecutive patients with acute chest pain admitted thorough the emergency department. None had prior coronary artery disease. CACS was calculated using the Agatston method. EATv and ITFv were semiautomatically calculated. Median patient follow-up was 3.3 years. Mean patient age was 54.4±13.7 years and Framingham risk score 8.2±8.2. The 45 patients (5.9%) with major acute cardiac events (MACE) were older (64.8±13.9 versus 53.7±13.4 years), more frequently male (60% versus 40%), and had a higher median Framingham risk score (16 versus 4) and CACS (268 versus 0) versus those without events (all PEATv (154 versus 116 mL) and ITFv (330 versus 223 mL), and a higher prevalence of EATv >125 mL (67% versus 44%) and ITFv >250 mL (64% versus 42%) (all PEATv, and ITFv were all independently associated with MACE. CACS was associated with MACE after adjustment for fat volumes (PEATv and ITFv improved the risk model only in patients with CACS >400. CACS and fat volumes are independently associated with MACE in acute chest pain patients and beyond that provided by clinical information alone. Although fat volumes may add prognostic value in patients with CACS >400, CACS is most strongly correlated with outcome.

Risk score prediction model for dementia in patients with type 2 diabetes.

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Li, Chia-Ing; Li, Tsai-Chung; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Liao, Li-Na; Lin, Wen-Yuan; Lin, Chih-Hsueh; Yang, Sing-Yu; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Lin, Cheng-Chieh

2018-03-30

No study established a prediction dementia model in the Asian populations. This study aims to develop a prediction model for dementia in Chinese type 2 diabetes patients. This retrospective cohort study included 27,540 Chinese type 2 diabetes patients (aged 50-94 years) enrolled in Taiwan National Diabetes Care Management Program. Participants were randomly allocated into derivation and validation sets at 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify risk factors for dementia in the derivation set. Steps proposed by Framingham Heart Study were used to establish a prediction model with a scoring system. The average follow-up was 8.09 years, with a total of 853 incident dementia cases in derivation set. Dementia risk score summed up the individual scores (from 0 to 20). The areas under curve of 3-, 5-, and 10-year dementia risks were 0.82, 0.79, and 0.76 in derivation set and 0.84, 0.80, and 0.75 in validation set, respectively. The proposed score system is the first dementia risk prediction model for Chinese type 2 diabetes patients in Taiwan. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Leisure-Time Physical Activity, but not Commuting Physical Activity, is Associated with Cardiovascular Risk among ELSA-Brasil Participants.

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Pitanga, Francisco José Gondim; Matos, Sheila M A; Almeida, Maria da Conceição; Barreto, Sandhi Maria; Aquino, Estela M L

2018-01-01

Despite reports in the literature that both leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and commuting physical activity (CPA) can promote health benefits, the literature lacks studies comparing the associations of these domains of physical activity with cardiovascular risk scores. To investigate the association between LTPA and CPA with different cardiovascular risk scores in the cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health ELSA-Brasil. Cross-sectional study with data from 13,721 participants of both genders, aged 35-74 years, free of cardiovascular disease, from ELSA Brazil. Physical activity was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Five cardiovascular risk scores were used: Framingham score - coronary heart disease (cholesterol); Framingham score - coronary heart disease (LDL-C); Framingham score - cardiovascular disease (cholesterol); Framingham score - cardiovascular disease (body mass index, BMI); and pooled cohort equations for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Associations adjusted for confounding variables between physical activity and different cardiovascular risk scores were analyzed by logistic regression. Confidence interval of 95% (95%CI) was considered. LTPA is inversely associated with almost all cardiovascular risk scores analyzed, while CPA shows no statistically significant association with any of them. Dose-response effect in association between LTPA and cardiovascular risk scores was also found, especially in men. LTPA was shown to be associated with the cardiovascular risk scores analyzed, but CPA not. The amount of physical activity (duration and intensity) was more significantly associated, especially in men, with cardiovascular risk scores in ELSA-Brasil.

Cardiovascular Risk and Serum Hyaluronic Acid: A Preliminary Study in a Healthy Population of Low/Intermediate Risk.

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Papanastasopoulou, Chrysanthi; Papastamataki, Maria; Karampatsis, Petros; Anagnostopoulou, Eleni; Papassotiriou, Ioannis; Sitaras, Nikolaos

2017-01-01

Hyaluronic acid (HA) has been found to be an important trigger of atherosclerosis. In this study, we investigate the possible association of serum HA with cardiovascular disease risk in a population of low/intermediate risk for cardiovascular events. We enrolled 200 subjects with low/intermediate risk for developing cardiovascular disease. High specific C-reactive protein (hsCRP) was used as an indicator of preclinical atherosclerosis. The Framingham score was used to calculate the cardiovascular risk. Participants with dyslipidemia had significantly higher levels of serum HA than those without dyslipidemia (t-test, P = 0.05), higher levels of hsCRP (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.04), and higher cardiovascular risk according to the Framingham score (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.05). Serum HA concentration correlated significantly with the Framingham score for risk for coronary heart disease over the next 10 years (Spearman r = 0.152, P = 0.02). Diabetic volunteers had significantly higher HA than those without diabetes (t-test, P = 0.02). Participants with metabolic syndrome had higher serum HA levels and higher hsCRP (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.01) compared to volunteers without metabolic syndrome (t-test, P = 0.03). Serum HA should be explored as an early marker of atheromatosis and cardiovascular risk. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Shift Work and the Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases and Metabolic Syndrome Among Jordanian Employees

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Rana Abu Farha

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Objectives: We sought to evaluate the effect of night shift working on increasing the risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD using three different predictors. Methods: One hundred and forty adult Jordanian employees were recruited in this cross-sectional study. Demographic data, anthropometric parameters, and working patterns information were documented. Metabolic syndrome (MetS was diagnosed, and atherogenic index of the plasma (AIP and Framingham risk score were calculated. Results: Night shift workers had a significantly higher AIP ratio compared to daytime workers (p = 0.024. No significant association was observed between the two groups in term of 30-year Framingham risk score (p = 0.115. However, the duration of night shifts and the number of night shifts per months were found to significantly increase the 30-year Framingham risk (p = 0.000 and 0.012, respectively. Furthermore, the incidence of MetS among night shift workers was 15.9% (13/82 compared to 10.3% (6/58 among daytime workers (p = 0.484. Conclusions: This is the first study to assess the association between night shift work and AIP as well as the 30-year Framingham risk score as predictors of CVDs. Night shift work was associated with an increase in AIP score compared to daytime work. Also, the duration of night shifts and the number of night shifts per month significantly increased the 30-year Framingham risk among night shift workers. These findings suggest an association between night shift work and the risk of CVD and atherosclerosis. Our results highlight the need for interventional strategies to diminish the risk of CVD in night shift workers.

Clinical Utility of a Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Gene Score in UK Healthy Middle Aged Men and in the Pakistani Population.

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Katherine E Beaney

Full Text Available Numerous risk prediction algorithms based on conventional risk factors for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD are available but provide only modest discrimination. The inclusion of genetic information may improve clinical utility.We tested the use of two gene scores (GS in the prospective second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHSII of 2775 healthy UK men (284 cases, and Pakistani case-control studies from Islamabad/Rawalpindi (321 cases/228 controls and Lahore (414 cases/219 controls. The 19-SNP GS included SNPs in loci identified by GWAS and candidate gene studies, while the 13-SNP GS only included SNPs in loci identified by the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium.In NPHSII, the mean of both gene scores was higher in those who went on to develop CHD over 13.5 years of follow-up (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=7x10-3. In combination with the Framingham algorithm the GSs appeared to show improvement in discrimination (increase in area under the ROC curve, 19-SNP p=0.48, 13-SNP p=0.82 and risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI, 19-SNP p=0.28, 13-SNP p=0.42 compared to the Framingham algorithm alone, but these were not statistically significant. When considering only individuals who moved up a risk category with inclusion of the GS, the improvement in risk classification was statistically significant (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=0.04. In the Pakistani samples, risk allele frequencies were significantly lower compared to NPHSII for 13/19 SNPs. In the Islamabad study, the mean gene score was higher in cases than controls only for the 13-SNP GS (2.24 v 2.34, p=0.04. There was no association with CHD and either score in the Lahore study.The performance of both GSs showed potential clinical utility in European men but much less utility in subjects from Pakistan, suggesting that a different set of risk loci or SNPs may be required for risk prediction in the South Asian population.

Use and Customization of Risk Scores for Predicting Cardiovascular Events Using Electronic Health Record Data.

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Wolfson, Julian; Vock, David M; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Kottke, Thomas; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Johnson, Paul; Adomavicius, Gediminas; O'Connor, Patrick J

2017-04-24

Clinicians who are using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) to estimate risk for their patients based on electronic health data (EHD) face 4 questions. (1) Do published risk scores applied to EHD yield accurate estimates of cardiovascular risk? (2) Are FRS risk estimates, which are based on data that are up to 45 years old, valid for a contemporary patient population seeking routine care? (3) Do the PCE make the FRS obsolete? (4) Does refitting the risk score using EHD improve the accuracy of risk estimates? Data were extracted from the EHD of 84 116 adults aged 40 to 79 years who received care at a large healthcare delivery and insurance organization between 2001 and 2011. We assessed calibration and discrimination for 4 risk scores: published versions of FRS and PCE and versions obtained by refitting models using a subset of the available EHD. The published FRS was well calibrated (calibration statistic K=9.1, miscalibration ranging from 0% to 17% across risk groups), but the PCE displayed modest evidence of miscalibration (calibration statistic K=43.7, miscalibration from 9% to 31%). Discrimination was similar in both models (C-index=0.740 for FRS, 0.747 for PCE). Refitting the published models using EHD did not substantially improve calibration or discrimination. We conclude that published cardiovascular risk models can be successfully applied to EHD to estimate cardiovascular risk; the FRS remains valid and is not obsolete; and model refitting does not meaningfully improve the accuracy of risk estimates. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

The clinical performance of an office-based risk scoring system for fatal cardiovascular diseases in North-East of Iran.

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Sadaf G Sepanlou

Full Text Available Cardiovascular diseases (CVD are becoming major causes of death in developing countries. Risk scoring systems for CVD are needed to prioritize allocation of limited resources. Most of these risk score algorithms have been based on a long array of risk factors including blood markers of lipids. However, risk scoring systems that solely use office-based data, not including laboratory markers, may be advantageous. In the current analysis, we validated the office-based Framingham risk scoring system in Iran.The study used data from the Golestan Cohort in North-East of Iran. The following risk factors were used in the development of the risk scoring method: sex, age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, current smoking, and diabetes. Cardiovascular risk functions for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal CVDs were developed.A total of 46,674 participants free of CVD at baseline were included. Predictive value of estimated risks was examined. The resulting Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC was 0.774 (95% CI: 0.762-0.787 in all participants, 0.772 (95% CI: 0.753-0.791 in women, and 0.763 (95% CI: 0.747-0.779 in men. AUC was higher in urban areas (0.790, 95% CI: 0.766-0.815. The predicted and observed risks of fatal CVD were similar in women. However, in men, predicted probabilities were higher than observed.The AUC in the current study is comparable to results of previous studies while lipid profile was replaced by body mass index to develop an office-based scoring system. This scoring algorithm is capable of discriminating individuals at high risk versus low risk of fatal CVD.

Impact of smoking cessation on estimated cardiovascular risk in Spanish type 2 diabetes mellitus patients: The DIABETES study.

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Luque-Ramírez, M; Sanz de Burgoa, V

2018-06-08

To assess the cardiovascular risk according to the UKPDS risk engine; Framingham function and score comparing clinical characteristics of diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) patients according to their habits status. A descriptive analysis was performed. A total of 890 Spanish patients with DM2 (444 smokers and 446 former-smokers) were included in a cross-sectional, observational, epidemiological multicenter nationwide study. Coronary heart disease risk at 10 years was calculated using the UKPDS risk score in both patient subgroups. Results were also compared with the Spanish calibrated (REGICOR) and updated Framingham risk scores. The estimated likelihood of coronary heart disease risk at 10 years according to the UKPDS score was significantly greater in smokers compared with former-smokers. This increased risk was greater in subjects with poorer blood glucose control, and was attenuated in women ≥60 years-old. The Framingham and UKPDS scores conferred a greater estimated risk than the REGICOR equation in Spanish diabetics. Quitting smoke in patients with DM2 is accompanied by a significant decrease in the estimated risk of coronary events as assessed by UKPDS. Our findings support the importance of quitting smoking among diabetic patients in order to reduce cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

Role of γ-glutamyl transferase levels in prediction of high cardiovascular risk among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

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Benan Kasapoglu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background & objectives: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD is an important cause of elevated liver functions. There is evidence showing an association between NAFLD and subclinical atherosclerosis independent of traditional risk factors. We undertook this retrospective study to determine the association of Framingham cardiovascular risk scoring system with liver function tests and inflammatory markers and to find the role of liver function tests in determination of CVD risk among non-obese and non-diabetic subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Methods: A total of 2058 patients were included in the study. Framingham cardiovascular risk scoring was done of all patients according to the age, gender, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol levels, smoking and antihypertensive medication history. Liver function test, lipid profile, insulin, uric acid, ferritin levels, etc. were determined. Results: According to the ultrasonography findings, patients were grouped as without any fatty infiltration of the liver (control group (n=982, mild (n= 473, moderate (n=363 and severe fatty liver disease (n= 240 groups. In severe fatty liver disease group, the mean Framingham cardiovascular risk score was significantly higher than that of other groups. t0 here was a positive correlation between GGT, uric acid and ferritin levels with Framingham cardiovascular score. In multivariate analysis, high GGT levels were positively associated with high-risk disease presence (OR: 3.02, 95% CI: 2.62-3.42 compared to low GGT levels independent of the age and sex. Interpretation & conclusions: Cardiovascular disease risk increases with the presence and stage of fatty liver disease. Our findings showed a positive correlation between elevated GGT levels and Framingham cardiovascular risk scoring system among non-diabetic, non-obese adults which could be important in clinical practice. Though in normal limits, elevated GGT levels

New Zealand Diabetes Cohort Study cardiovascular risk score for people with Type 2 diabetes: validation in the PREDICT cohort.

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Robinson, Tom; Elley, C Raina; Wells, Sue; Robinson, Elizabeth; Kenealy, Tim; Pylypchuk, Romana; Bramley, Dale; Arroll, Bruce; Crengle, Sue; Riddell, Tania; Ameratunga, Shanthi; Metcalf, Patricia; Drury, Paul L

2012-09-01

New Zealand (NZ) guidelines recommend treating people for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk on the basis of five-year absolute risk using a NZ adaptation of the Framingham risk equation. A diabetes-specific Diabetes Cohort Study (DCS) CVD predictive risk model has been developed and validated using NZ Get Checked data. To revalidate the DCS model with an independent cohort of people routinely assessed using PREDICT, a web-based CVD risk assessment and management programme. People with Type 2 diabetes without pre-existing CVD were identified amongst people who had a PREDICT risk assessment between 2002 and 2005. From this group we identified those with sufficient data to allow estimation of CVD risk with the DCS models. We compared the DCS models with the NZ Framingham risk equation in terms of discrimination, calibration, and reclassification implications. Of 3044 people in our study cohort, 1829 people had complete data and therefore had CVD risks calculated. Of this group, 12.8% (235) had a cardiovascular event during the five-year follow-up. The DCS models had better discrimination than the currently used equation, with C-statistics being 0.68 for the two DCS models and 0.65 for the NZ Framingham model. The DCS models were superior to the NZ Framingham equation at discriminating people with diabetes who will have a cardiovascular event. The adoption of a DCS model would lead to a small increase in the number of people with diabetes who are treated with medication, but potentially more CVD events would be avoided.

Application of cardiovascular disease risk prediction models and the relevance of novel biomarkers to risk stratification in Asian Indians.

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Kanjilal, S; Rao, V S; Mukherjee, M; Natesha, B K; Renuka, K S; Sibi, K; Iyengar, S S; Kakkar, Vijay V

2008-01-01

The increasing pressure on health resources has led to the emergence of risk assessment as an essential tool in the management of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Concern exists regarding the validity of their generalization to all populations. Existing risk scoring models do not incorporate emerging 'novel' risk factors. In this context, the aim of the study was to examine the relevance of British, European, and Framingham predictive CVD risk scores to the asymptomatic high risk Indian population. Blood samples drawn from the participants were analyzed for various 'traditional' and 'novel' biomarkers, and their CVD risk factor profiling was also done. The Framingham model defined only 5% of the study cohort to be at high risk, which appears to be an underestimation of CVD risk in this genetically predisposed population. These subjects at high risk had significantly elevated levels of lipid, pro-inflammatory, pro-thrombotic, and serological markers. It is more relevant to develop risk predictive scores for application to the Indian population. This study substantiates the argument that alternative approaches to risk stratification are required in order to make them more adaptable and applicable to different populations with varying risk factor and disease patterns.

Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

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Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Chang, Nai-Wen; Dai, Hong-Jie

2015-12-01

Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

HeartCare+: A Smart Heart Care Mobile Application for Framingham-Based Early Risk Prediction of Hard Coronary Heart Diseases in Middle East

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Hoda Ahmed Galal Elsayed

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Healthcare is a challenging, yet so demanding sector that developing countries are paying more attention to recently. Statistics show that rural areas are expected to develop a high rate of heart diseases, which is a leading cause of sudden mortality, in the future. Thus, providing solutions that can assist rural people in detecting the cardiac risks early will be vital for uncovering and even preventing the long-term complications of cardiac diseases. Methodology. Mobile technology can be effectively utilized to limit the cardiac diseases’ prevalence in rural Middle East. This paper proposes a smart mobile solution for early risk detection of hard coronary heart diseases that uses the Framingham scoring model. Results. Smart HeartCare+ mobile app estimates accurately coronary heart diseases’ risk over 10 years based on clinical and nonclinical data and classifies the patient risk to low, moderate, or high. HeartCare+ also directs the patients to further treatment recommendations. Conclusion. This work attempts to investigate the effectiveness of the mobile technology in the early risk detection of coronary heart diseases. HeartCare+ app intensifies the communication channel between the lab workers and patients residing in rural areas and cardiologists and specialist residing in urban places.

Advanced age, cardiovascular risk burden, and timed up and go test performance in Parkinson disease.

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Kotagal, Vikas; Albin, Roger L; Müller, Martijn L T M; Koeppe, Robert A; Studenski, Stephanie; Frey, Kirk A; Bohnen, Nicolaas I

2014-12-01

Cardiovascular comorbidities are a known risk factor for impaired mobility in elderly individuals. Motor impairments in Parkinson disease are conventionally ascribed to nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation although progressive gait and balance impairments become more common with aging and often show limited response to dopaminergic replacement therapies. We explored the association between elevated cardiovascular risk factors and performance on the Timed Up and Go test in cross-sectional of Parkinson disease subjects (n = 83). Cardiovascular risk factor status was estimated using the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease risk-scoring algorithm in order to dichotomize the cohort into those with and without elevated modifiable cardiovascular risk compared with normative scores for age and gender. All subjects underwent clinical and neuroimaging evaluations including a 3-m Timed Up and Go test, [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine positron emission tomography imaging to estimate nigrostriatal dopamine terminal loss, and an magnetic resonance imaging assessment of leukoaraiosis. A similar analysis was performed in 49 healthy controls. After adjusting for disease duration, leukoaraiosis, and nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation, Parkinson disease subjects with elevated Framingham risk scores (n = 61) displayed slower Timed Up and Go test performance (β = 1.86, t = 2.41, p = .018) compared with subjects with normal range Framingham risk scores (n = 22). When age ≥65 was added to the model in a post hoc analysis, the strength of effect seen with older age (β = 1.51, t = 2.44, p = .017) was similar to that of elevated Framingham risk scoring (β = 1.87, t = 2.51, p = .014). In a multivariable regression model studying the healthy control population, advanced age (t = 2.15, p = .037) was a significant predictor of Timed Up and Go speed though striatal [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine (t = -1.30, p = .19) and elevated Framingham risk scores (t = 1.32, p = .19) were not

Concordance with World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) guidelines for cancer prevention and obesity-related cancer risk in the Framingham Offspring cohort (1991-2008).

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Makarem, Nour; Lin, Yong; Bandera, Elisa V; Jacques, Paul F; Parekh, Niyati

2015-02-01

This prospective cohort study evaluates associations between healthful behaviors consistent with WCRF/AICR cancer prevention guidelines and obesity-related cancer risk, as a third of cancers are estimated to be preventable. The study sample consisted of adults from the Framingham Offspring cohort (n = 2,983). From 1991 to 2008, 480 incident doctor-diagnosed obesity-related cancers were identified. Data on diet, measured by a food frequency questionnaire, anthropometric measures, and self-reported physical activity, collected in 1991 was used to construct a 7-component score based on recommendations for body fatness, physical activity, foods that promote weight gain, plant foods, animal foods, alcohol, and food preservation, processing, and preparation. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate associations between the computed score, its components, and subcomponents in relation to obesity-related cancer risk. The overall score was not associated with obesity-related cancer risk after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, energy, and preexisting conditions (HR 0.94, 95 % CI 0.86-1.02). When score components were evaluated separately, for every unit increment in the alcohol score, there was 29 % lower risk of obesity-related cancers (HR 0.71, 95 % CI 0.51-0.99) and 49-71 % reduced risk of breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers. Every unit increment in the subcomponent score for non-starchy plant foods (fruits, vegetables, and legumes) among participants who consume starchy vegetables was associated with 66 % reduced risk of colorectal cancer (HR 0.44, 95 % CI 0.22-0.88). Lower alcohol consumption and a plant-based diet consistent with the cancer prevention guidelines were associated with reduced risk of obesity-related cancers in this population.

Effect of Birth Cohort on Risk of Hip Fracture: Age-Specific Incidence Rates in the Framingham Study

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Samelson, Elizabeth J.; Zhang, Yuqing; Kiel, Douglas P.; Hannan, Marian T.; Felson, David T.

2002-01-01

Objectives. This study examined the effect of birth cohort on incidence rates of hip fracture among women and men in the Framingham Study. Methods. Age-specific incidence rates of first hip fracture were presented according to tertile of year of birth for 5209 participants of the Framingham Study, a population-based cohort followed since 1948. Sex-specific incidence rate ratios were calculated by Cox regression to assess the relation between birth cohort and hip fracture incidence. Results. An increasing trend in hip fracture incidence rates was observed with year of birth for women (trend, P = .05) and men (trend, P = .03). Relative to those born from 1887 to 1900 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.0), age-specific incidence rates were greatest in the most recent birth cohort, born from 1911 to 1921 (IRR = 1.4 for women, IRR = 2.0 for men), and intermediate in those born from 1901 to 1910 (IRR = 1.2 for women, IRR = 1.5 for men). Conclusions. Results suggest risk of hip fracture is increasing for successive birth cohorts. Projections that fail to account for the increase in rates associated with birth cohort underestimate the future public health impact of hip fracture in the United States. PMID:11988460

Visceral adiposity index as an indicator of cardiometabolic risk in patients treated for craniopharyngioma.

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Ferraù, Francesco; Spagnolo, Federica; Cotta, Oana Ruxandra; Cannavò, Laura; Alibrandi, Angela; Russo, Giuseppina Tiziana; Aversa, Tommaso; Trimarchi, Francesco; Cannavò, Salvatore

2017-11-01

Craniopharyngioma is associated with metabolic alterations leading to increased cardiovascular mortality. Recently, the visceral adiposity index has been proposed as a marker of visceral adipose tissue dysfunction and of the related cardiometabolic risk. The role of the visceral adiposity index has never been explored in craniopharyngioma patients. We assessed the cardiometabolic risk on the basis of the visceral adiposity index in craniopharyngioma patients. We evaluated data of 24 patients treated for craniopharyngioma in a single-centre. We investigated the relationship among patients' clinical and biochemical features, cardiovascular risk -assessed by the Framingham and the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores-, visceral adiposity index and adipose tissue dysfunction severity. Increased visceral adiposity index was found in 8 patients (33%). Adipose tissue dysfunction resulted to be severe, moderate or mild in 5, 2 and 1 cases. Increased visceral adiposity index significantly correlated with the occurrence of metabolic syndrome (p 0.027), IRI (p 0.001), triglycerides (p < 0.001), HOMA-IR (p < 0.001) and with lower ISI-Matsuda (p 0.005) and HDL-cholesterol (p < 0.001). Higher degree of adipose tissue dysfunction associated with increased insulin resistance. No gender difference was found for visceral adiposity index, adipose tissue dysfunction severity, and cardiovascular risk scores. Patients with adulthood onset craniopharyngioma showed higher Framingham risk score (p 0.004), atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease 10-year (p < 0.001) and lifetime (p 0.018) risk scores than those with childhood onset disease. Visceral adiposity index is increased in one third of our patients with craniopharyngioma, even if metabolic syndrome does not occur. Increased visceral adiposity index and adipose tissue dysfunction severity correlate with insulin sensitivity parameters, do not correlate with Framingham or atherosclerotic cardiovascular

Metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk among adults

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Reem Hunain

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Mortality and morbidity due cardiovascular diseases in India is on the rise. Metabolic Syndrome which is a collection of risk factors of metabolic origin, can greatly contribute to its rising burden. Aims & Objectives: The present study was conducted with the objective of estimating the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and 10-year cardiovascular risk among adults. Material & Methods: This hospital-based study included 260 adults aged 20-60 years. Metabolic Syndrome was defined using National Cholesterol Education Program –Adult Treatment Panel -3 criteria. The 10 year cardiovascular risk was estimated using Framingham risk scoring. Results: The overall prevalence of metabolic syndrome among the study participants was 38.8%. Age (41-60yrs, male gender and daily consumption of high salt items were positively associated with metabolic syndrome whereas consumption of occasional high sugar items showed an inverse association with metabolic syndrome. According to Framingham Risk Scoring, 14.3% of the participants belonged to intermediate/high risk category. Conclusion: With a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome and a considerable proportion of individuals with intermediate to high 10 yr CVD risk, there is a need to design strategies to prevent future cardiovascular events.

The International Bleeding Risk Score

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Laine, L.; Dalton, H.

2017-01-01

The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding.......The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding....

Prediction of long-term absence due to sickness in employees: development and validation of a multifactorial risk score in two cohort studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Airaksinen, Jaakko; Jokela, Markus; Virtanen, Marianna; Oksanen, Tuula; Koskenvuo, Markku; Pentti, Jaana; Vahtera, Jussi; Kivimäki, Mika

2018-01-24

Objectives This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for long-term sickness absence. Methods Survey responses on work- and lifestyle-related questions from 65 775 public-sector employees were linked to sickness absence records to develop a prediction score for medically-certified sickness absence lasting >9 days and ≥90 days. The score was externally validated using data from an independent population-based cohort of 13 527 employees. For both sickness absence outcomes, a full model including 46 candidate predictors was reduced to a parsimonious model using least-absolute-shrinkage-and-selection-operator (LASSO) regression. Predictive performance of the model was evaluated using C-index and calibration plots. Results Variance explained in ≥90-day sickness absence by the full model was 12.5%. In the parsimonious model, the predictors included self-rated health (linear and quadratic term), depression, sex, age (linear and quadratic), socioeconomic position, previous sickness absences, number of chronic diseases, smoking, shift work, working night shift, and quadratic terms for body mass index and Jenkins sleep scale. The discriminative ability of the score was good (C-index 0.74 in internal and 0.73 in external validation). Calibration plots confirmed high correspondence between the predicted and observed risk. In >9-day sickness absence, the full model explained 15.2% of the variance explained, but the C-index of the parsimonious model was poor (<0.65). Conclusions Individuals' risk of a long-term sickness absence that lasts ≥90 days can be estimated using a brief risk score. The predictive performance of this score is comparable to those for established multifactorial risk algorithms for cardiovascular disease, such as the Framingham risk score.

Cardiovascular risk prediction: the old has given way to the new but at what risk-benefit ratio?

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Yeboah J

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Joseph Yeboah Heart and Vascular Center of Excellence, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA Abstract: The ultimate goal of cardiovascular risk prediction is to identify individuals in the population to whom the application or administration of current proven lifestyle modifications and medicinal therapies will result in reduction in cardiovascular disease events and minimal adverse effects (net benefit to society. The use of cardiovascular risk prediction tools dates back to 1976 when the Framingham coronary heart disease risk score was published. Since then a lot of novel risk markers have been identified and other cardiovascular risk prediction tools have been developed to either improve or replace the Framingham Risk Score (FRS. In 2013, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator was published by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association to replace the FRS for cardiovascular risk prediction. It is too soon to know the performance of the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator. The risk-benefit ratio for preventive therapy (lifestyle modifications, statin +/− aspirin based on cardiovascular disease risk assessed using the FRS is unknown but it was assumed to be a net benefit. Should we also assume the risk-benefit ratio for the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator is also a net benefit? Keywords: risk prediction, prevention, cardiovascular disease

Resistance training and predicted risk of coronary heart disease in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of resistance training, designed to prevent the development of coronary heart disease (CHD) based on the Framingham Risk Assessment (FRA) score. Twenty-five healthy sedentary men with low CHD risk were assigned to participate in a 16-week (three days per week) ...

Noncoronary Measures Enhance the Predictive Value of Cardiac CT Above Traditional Risk Factors and CAC Score in the General Population.

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Mahabadi, Amir A; Lehmann, Nils; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Pundt, Noreen; Dykun, Iryna; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Moebus, Susanne; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund; Kälsch, Hagen

2016-10-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether noncoronary measures from cardiac computed tomography (CT) may enhance the prognostic value of this imaging technology. When cardiac CT is performed for quantification of coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, information on other cardiac and thoracic structures is available. Participants without known cardiovascular disease from the prospective population based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study underwent noncontrast cardiac CT for CAC score quantification. From CT, epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) volume, left ventricular and left atrial (LA) axial area index, ascending and descending aortic diameters, as well as aortic valve, mitral ring, and thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) were assessed. Incident cardiovascular events included myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death. The prognostic value of CT-derived parameters was assessed by Cox regression analysis, receiver operating characteristics, and net reclassification improvement. From 3,630 subjects (59 ± 8 years of age, 46% male), 241 (6.6%) developed a cardiovascular event during 9.9 ± 2.6 years of follow-up. In multivariable Cox regression analysis including Framingham Risk Score, CAC (as log[CAC + 1]), and CT parameters, LA index (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.22 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05 to 1.41] per SD; p = 0.010) and EAT volume (HR: 1.15 [95% CI: 1.01 to 1.30] per SD; p = 0.031) were significantly associated with incident events. In addition, presence of TAC showed an elevated event rate (HR: 1.33 [95% CI: 0.97 to 1.81]; p = 0.08), whereas all other CT-derived parameters showed no relevant association. The LA index, EAT volume, and presence of TAC together improved the prediction of events over Framingham Risk Score and CAC in receiver operating characteristics analysis (area under the curve: 0.749 to 0.764; p = 0.011), and let to a significant net reclassification improvement (HR: 38.0%; 95% CI: 25.1% to 50.8%). Assessment of LA index, EAT

Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia.

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Barzi, F; Patel, A; Gu, D; Sritara, P; Lam, T H; Rodgers, A; Woodward, M

2007-02-01

Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. 172,077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25,682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian

Prognostic utility of novel biomarkers of cardiovascular stress: the Framingham Heart Study.

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Wang, Thomas J; Wollert, Kai C; Larson, Martin G; Coglianese, Erin; McCabe, Elizabeth L; Cheng, Susan; Ho, Jennifer E; Fradley, Michael G; Ghorbani, Anahita; Xanthakis, Vanessa; Kempf, Tibor; Benjamin, Emelia J; Levy, Daniel; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Januzzi, James L

2012-09-25

Biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular events in community-based populations have not consistently added information to standard risk factors. A limitation of many previously studied biomarkers is their lack of cardiovascular specificity. To determine the prognostic value of 3 novel biomarkers induced by cardiovascular stress, we measured soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity troponin I in 3428 participants (mean age, 59 years; 53% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. We performed multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models to assess the individual and combined ability of the biomarkers to predict adverse outcomes. We also constructed a "multimarker" score composed of the 3 biomarkers in addition to B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. During a mean follow-up of 11.3 years, there were 488 deaths, 336 major cardiovascular events, 162 heart failure events, and 142 coronary events. In multivariable-adjusted models, the 3 new biomarkers were associated with each end point (Pstatistic (P=0.005 or lower) and net reclassification improvement (P=0.001 or lower). Multiple biomarkers of cardiovascular stress are detectable in ambulatory individuals and add prognostic value to standard risk factors for predicting death, overall cardiovascular events, and heart failure.

Coronary heart disease risk assessment and characterization of coronary artery disease using coronary CT angiography: comparison of asymptomatic and symptomatic groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, Y.; Kim, Y.; Chung, I.-M.; Ryu, J.; Park, H.

2010-01-01

Aim: To evaluate the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) in relation to risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and assess plaque characteristics from coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography in asymptomatic and symptomatic patients. Materials and methods: Three hundred and ninety consecutive patients [asymptomatic group, n = 138; symptomatic group (atypical or non-anginal chest pain), n = 252] were retrospectively enrolled. They were subsequently classified into three CHD risk categories, based on the National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines, and 10 year risks of coronary events were calculated using Framingham risk score. CT was evaluated for stenosis, plaque composition, and coronary calcium scores. Results: CAD was observed in 42% of the asymptomatic group and 62% of the symptomatic group. In the former, the prevalence of CAD in low-, moderate- and high-risk subgroups was 21.4, 47.4 and 65%, respectively, and was 33.3, 74.4, and 72.4% in the symptomatic group. Framingham 10-year risks of coronary events were significantly higher in patients with CAD than in normal participants, and receiver operating characteristics curves showed that discriminatory power was poor in the asymptomatic group and symptomatic men, and good in symptomatic women. Of the participants in the asymptomatic group, 12% exhibited only non-calcified plaques and of the symptomatic group, 7% exhibited only non-calcified plaques. The coronary calcium score was significantly higher for significant stenosis than for non-significant stenosis in both groups. Conclusions: The prevalence of CAD was not negligible even in subgroups with low-to-moderate CHD risk. Additionally, the Framingham risk score was effective for predicting CAD only in symptomatic women. Coronary calcium scores correlated with significant stenosis; however, a sizeable percentage of both groups had only non-calcified plaques.

Racial discrimination & cardiovascular disease risk: my body my story study of 1005 US-born black and white community health center participants (US.

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Nancy Krieger

Full Text Available To date, limited and inconsistent evidence exists regarding racial discrimination and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD.Cross-sectional observational study of 1005 US-born non-Hispanic black (n = 504 and white (n = 501 participants age 35-64 randomly selected from community health centers in Boston, MA (2008-2010; 82.4% response rate, using 3 racial discrimination measures: explicit self-report; implicit association test (IAT, a time reaction test for self and group as target vs. perpetrator of discrimination; and structural (Jim Crow status of state of birth, i.e. legal racial discrimination prior 1964.Black and white participants both had adverse cardiovascular and socioeconomic profiles, with black participants most highly exposed to racial discrimination. Positive crude associations among black participants occurred for Jim Crow birthplace and hypertension (odds ratio (OR 1.92, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.28, 2.89 and for explicit self-report and the Framingham 10 year CVD risk score (beta = 0.04; 95% CI 0.01, 0.07; among white participants, only negative crude associations existed (for IAT for self, for lower systolic blood pressure (SBP; beta = -4.86; 95% CI -9.08, -0.64 and lower Framingham CVD score (beta = -0.36, 95% CI -0.63, -0.08. All of these associations were attenuated and all but the white IAT-Framingham risk score association were rendered null in analyses that controlled for lifetime socioeconomic position and additional covariates. Controlling for racial discrimination, socioeconomic position, and other covariates did not attenuate the crude black excess risk for SBP and hypertension and left unaffected the null excess risk for the Framingham CVD score.Despite worse exposures among the black participants, racial discrimination and socioeconomic position were not associated, in multivariable analyses, with risk of CVD. We interpret results in relation to constrained variability of exposures and outcomes and discuss

Calcium intake is not associated with increased coronary artery calcification: the Framingham Study.

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Samelson, Elizabeth J; Booth, Sarah L; Fox, Caroline S; Tucker, Katherine L; Wang, Thomas J; Hoffmann, Udo; Cupples, L Adrienne; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Kiel, Douglas P

2012-12-01

Adequate calcium intake is known to protect the skeleton. However, studies that have reported adverse effects of calcium supplementation on vascular events have raised widespread concern. We assessed the association between calcium intake (from diet and supplements) and coronary artery calcification, which is a measure of atherosclerosis that predicts risk of ischemic heart disease independent of other risk factors. This was an observational, prospective cohort study. Participants included 690 women and 588 men in the Framingham Offspring Study (mean age: 60 y; range: 36-83 y) who attended clinic visits and completed food-frequency questionnaires in 1998-2001 and underwent computed tomography scans 4 y later in 2002-2005. The mean age-adjusted coronary artery-calcification Agatston score decreased with increasing total calcium intake, and the trend was not significant after adjustment for age, BMI, smoking, alcohol consumption, vitamin D-supplement use, energy intake, and, for women, menopause status and estrogen use. Multivariable-adjusted mean Agatston scores were 2.36, 2.52, 2.16, and 2.39 (P-trend = 0.74) with an increasing quartile of total calcium intake in women and 4.32, 4.39, 4.19, and 4.37 (P-trend = 0.94) in men, respectively. Results were similar for dietary calcium and calcium supplement use. Our study does not support the hypothesis that high calcium intake increases coronary artery calcification, which is an important measure of atherosclerosis burden. The evidence is not sufficient to modify current recommendations for calcium intake to protect skeletal health with respect to vascular calcification risk.

Prediction of mortality using on-line, self-reported health data: empirical test of the RealAge score.

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William R Hobbs

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called "RealAge" assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users. RESULTS: THE REALAGE SCORE IS ACCURATELY SCALED (HAZARD RATIOS: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084 and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847 in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814, perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820. CONCLUSION: The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population.

Changes in coronary heart disease risk profiles of HIV patients in Zimbabwe over 9 months: a follow-up study

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Zhou DT

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Danai Tavonga Zhou,1,2 Olav Oektedalen,3 Sandra Shawarira-Bote,4 Babill Stray-Pedersen5 1Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of Zimbabwe, Avondale, Harare, Zimbabwe; 2Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, 3Department of Infectious Diseases, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway; 4Newlands Clinic, Harare, Zimbabwe; 5Institute of Clinical Medicine, University in Oslo and Womens Clinic, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway Abstract: Dyslipidemia, hypertension, inflammation, and coronary heart disease (CHD are adverse events in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-infected patients even if they are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART. Yet, data on CHD risk induced by HIV or ART in sub-Saharan Africa are limited. The aim of this longitudinal study was to describe changes in CHD risk profiles measured by lipids, inflammatory markers, and Framingham scores among HIV-positive patients previously reported from Harare, Zimbabwe. Patients were grouped into ART-experienced patients (n=147 and ART-naïve patients (n=23 and followed up for 9 months. Generalized least squares random-effects modeling was applied to explain changes in total cholesterol (TC, high-density lipoprotein (HDL, low-density lipoprotein, TC/HDL ratio, myeloperoxidase, highly sensitive C-reactive protein, and Framingham scores over the 9-month period. Independent variables included age, sex, monthly earning, body mass index, systolic blood pressure (SBP, diastolic blood pressure, duration of HIV diagnosis, duration of ART, viral load, and CD4 count. In ART-experienced patients, there was a substantial decrease in TC over time, ART-negative patients showed a significant increase in TC and HDL over time, and the increase in TC was associated with high viral load and low duration of HIV diagnosis, while increase in HDL was associated with young age, low body mass index, and low SBP. Framingham risk scores increased with time in

Dietary Cholesterol Intake Is Not Associated with Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in the Framingham Offspring Study

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Siyouneh Baghdasarian

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Identification of diet and lifestyle risk factors for prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM is of great importance. The specific role of dietary cholesterol (DC in T2DM risk is unclear. This study uses data from 2192 Framingham Offspring Study subjects to estimate the effects of DC alone and in combination with markers of a healthy diet and other lifestyle factors on fasting glucose and risk of T2DM or impaired fasting glucose (IFG over 20 years of follow-up. Dietary data were derived from two sets of three-day food records. Statistical methods included mixed linear regression and Cox proportional hazard’s modeling to adjust for confounding. There were no statistically significant differences in glucose levels over 20 years of follow-up across DC intake categories (<200, 200–<300, and ≥300 mg/day and no increased risk of T2DM/IFG associated with higher intakes. The HR for T2DM/IFG associated with consumption of ≥300 mg/day of DC was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.68–1.10. In contrast, subjects with lower intakes of fish, whole grains, and fiber had higher T2DM/IFG risk. DC consumption was not associated with fasting glucose levels or risk of T2DM/IFG over 20 years of follow-up.

Effective risk stratification in patients with moderate cardiovascular risk using albuminuria and atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Greve, Sara V; Blicher, Marie K; Sehestedt, Thomas

2015-01-01

, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and Framingham risk score (FRS) groups. Subclinical vascular damage was defined as carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity at least 12 m/s, and carotid atherosclerotic plaques or urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) at least 90th percentile of 0.73/1.06 mg...... risk patients and high-intermediate FRS risk patients with high risk (P = 0.04 and P = 0.001, respectively), whereas elevated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity did not. Elevated UACR or presence of atherosclerotic plaques reclassified patients from moderate to high SCORE risk [net reclassification...... improvement of 6.4%; P = 0.025), or from high intermediate to high FRS risk (net reclassification improvement 8.8%; P = 0.002). Assuming primary prevention could reduce the relative cardiovascular risk by 24-27%, on the basis of actual levels of blood pressure and cholesterol, one composite endpoint could...

Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients Evaluación del riesgo cardiovascular en hipertensos Avaliação do risco cardiovascular em hipertensos

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Elaine Amaral de Paula

2013-06-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels. OBJETIVO: evaluar el riesgo cardiovascular utilizando el puntaje de Framingham tradicional y el modificado por la incorporación de factores de riesgo emergentes como historia familiar de infarto agudo del miocardio, síndrome metabólico y enfermedad renal crónica. MÉTODO: participaron 50 hipertensos que hacen tratamiento en ambulatorio. Los datos clínicos fueron obtenidos por medio de entrevista semiestructurada y los de laboratorio fueron obtenidos de fichas. RESULTADOS: se verificó que el puntaje de Framingham tradicional fue predominantemente bajo (74%, 14% presentó riesgo medio y 12% riesgo alto. Tras la inclusión de factores de riesgo emergentes, la probabilidad de ocurrir un evento coronario fue baja en 22% de los casos, media en 56% y alta en 22% de los casos. CONCLUSIONES: la comparación entre el puntaje de riesgo de Framingham tradicional y el modificado demostr

Association of Anthropometric Measurement Methods with Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Turkey

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Kaan Sözmen

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to compare the predic­tive power of anthropometric indices for risk of developing Coronary Heart Disease (CHD or CHD death. Methods: We used cross-sectional data from nationally representative Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Sur­vey conducted by the Ministry of Health in 2011. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, waist to height ratio (WHtR, body adiposity index (BAI and A Body Shape Index (ABSI formed the anthropometric measures. For each participant risk of de­veloping CHD or dying from CVDs were calculated based on Framingham and SCORE risk equations. Predictive ability of anthropometric measurements was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: Anthropometric measurements of central obe­sity recorded higher area under the ROC curve (AUC values than BMI in both men and women. While ABSI had the highest AUC values for Framingham 10-year pre­dicted risk (FRS for CHD death (AUC = 0.613, SCORE 10-year risk for CVD death (AUC = 0.633, in women AUC for ABSI was the highest for only SCORE risk threshold (AUC = 0.705. Among women, WHtR was found to be the best indicator for estimating CHD incidence (AUC = 0.706 and death from CVD (AUC = 0.696. Conclusion: Compared to traditional anthropometric measurements such as BMI, ABSI was a better indicator for given thresholds for estimating the risk of developing CHD and CVD death in men. Among women WHtR made better predictions for FRS thresholds, however, ABSI was better for predicting 10-year risk of CVD death calculated by SCORE risk equation.

Coronary Artery Calcium Screening: Does it Perform Better than Other Cardiovascular Risk Stratification Tools?

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Irfan Zeb

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Coronary artery calcium (CAC has been advocated as one of the strongest cardiovascular risk prediction markers. It performs better across a wide range of Framingham risk categories (6%–10% and 10%–20% 10-year risk categories and also helps in reclassifying the risk of these subjects into either higher or lower risk categories based on CAC scores. It also performs better among population subgroups where Framingham risk score does not perform well, especially young subjects, women, family history of premature coronary artery disease and ethnic differences in coronary risk. The absence of CAC is also associated with excellent prognosis, with 10-year event rate of 1%. Studies have also compared with other commonly used markers of cardiovascular disease risk such as Carotid intima-media thickness and highly sensitive C-reactive protein. CAC also performs better compared with carotid intima-media thickness and highly sensitive C-reactive protein in prediction of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease events. CAC scans are associated with relatively low radiation exposure (0.9–1.1 mSv and provide information that can be used not only for risk stratification but also can be used to track the progression of atherosclerosis and the effects of statins.

Protective association of milk intake on the risk of hip fracture: results from the Framingham Original Cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Sahni, Shivani; Mangano, Kelsey M; Tucker, Katherine L; Kiel, Douglas P; Casey, Virginia A; Hannan, Marian T

2014-08-01

Dairy foods are rich in bone-beneficial nutrients, yet the role of dairy foods in hip fracture prevention remains controversial. Our objective was to evaluate the association of milk, yogurt, cheese, cream, and milk + yogurt intakes with incident hip fracture in the Framingham Original Cohort. A total of 830 men and women from the Framingham Original Cohort, a prospective cohort study, completed a food-frequency questionnaire (1988 to 1989) and were followed for hip fracture until 2008. In this population-based study, Cox-proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) by categories of energy-adjusted dairy intake (servings/wk), adjusting for standard confounders and covariates. The exposure was energy-adjusted intakes of milk, yogurt, cheese, cream, and milk + yogurt (servings/wk). Risk of hip fracture over the follow-up was the primary outcome; the hypothesis being tested was formulated after data collection. The mean age at baseline was 77 years (SD 4.9, range 68 to 96). Ninety-seven hip fractures occurred over the mean follow-up time of 11.6 years (range 0.04 to 21.9 years). The mean ± SD (servings/wk) of dairy intakes at baseline were: milk = 6.0 ± 6.4; yogurt = 0.4 ± 1.3; cheese = 2.6 ± 3.1; and cream = 3.4 ± 5.5. Participants with medium (>1 and milk intake tended to have lower hip fracture risk than those with low (≤1 serving/wk) intake (high versus low intake HR 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-1.06, p = 0.078; medium versus low intake HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.36-1.08, p = 0.071; p trend = 0.178]. There appeared to be a threshold for milk, with 40% lower risk of hip fracture among those with medium/high milk intake compared with those with low intake (p = 0.061). A similar threshold was observed for milk + yogurt intake (p = 0.104). These associations were further attenuated after adjustment for femoral neck bone mineral density. No significant associations

A brief screening tool for assessing psychological trauma in clinical practice: development and validation of the New York PTSD Risk Score.

Science.gov (United States)

Boscarino, Joseph A; Kirchner, H Lester; Hoffman, Stuart N; Sartorius, Jennifer; Adams, Richard E; Figley, Charles R

2011-01-01

The objective was to develop a brief posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) screening instrument that is useful in clinical practice, similar to the Framingham Risk Score used in cardiovascular medicine. We used data collected in New York City after the World Trade Center disaster (WTCD) and other trauma data to develop a new PTSD prediction tool--the New York PTSD Risk Score. We used diagnostic test methods to examine different clinical domains, including PTSD symptoms, trauma exposures, sleep disturbances, suicidal thoughts, depression symptoms, demographic factors and other measures to assess different PTSD prediction models. Using receiver operating curve (ROC) and bootstrap methods, five prediction domains, including core PTSD symptoms, sleep disturbance, access to care status, depression symptoms and trauma history, and five demographic variables, including gender, age, education, race and ethnicity, were identified. For the best prediction model, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.880 for the Primary Care PTSD Screen alone (specificity=82.2%, sensitivity=93.7%). Adding care status, sleep disturbance, depression and trauma exposure increased the AUC to 0.943 (specificity=85.7%, sensitivity=93.1%), a significant ROC improvement (Pdevelopment and validation samples. The New York PTSD Risk Score is a multifactor prediction tool that includes the Primary Care PTSD Screen, depression symptoms, access to care, sleep disturbance, trauma history and demographic variables and appears to be effective in predicting PTSD among patients seen in healthcare settings. This prediction tool is simple to administer and appears to outperform other screening measures. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and Validation of a Risk-Score Model for Type 2 Diabetes: A Cohort Study of a Rural Adult Chinese Population.

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Ming Zhang

Full Text Available Some global models to predict the risk of diabetes may not be applicable to local populations. We aimed to develop and validate a score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in a rural adult Chinese population. Data for a cohort of 12,849 participants were randomly divided into derivation (n = 11,564 and validation (n = 1285 datasets. A questionnaire interview and physical and blood biochemical examinations were performed at baseline (July to August 2007 and July to August 2008 and follow-up (July to August 2013 and July to October 2014. A Cox regression model was used to weigh each variable in the derivation dataset. For each significant variable, a score was calculated by multiplying β by 100 and rounding to the nearest integer. Age, body mass index, triglycerides and fasting plasma glucose (scores 3, 12, 24 and 76, respectively were predictors of incident T2DM. The model accuracy was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC, with optimal cut-off value 936. With the derivation dataset, sensitivity, specificity and AUC of the model were 66.7%, 74.0% and 0.768 (95% CI 0.760-0.776, respectively. With the validation dataset, the performance of the model was superior to the Chinese (simple, FINDRISC, Oman and IDRS models of T2DM risk but equivalent to the Framingham model, which is widely applicable in a variety of populations. Our model for predicting 6-year risk of T2DM could be used in a rural adult Chinese population.

Cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population with use of suPAR, CRP, and Framingham Risk Score

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lyngbæk, Stig; Marott, Jacob L; Sehestedt, Thomas

2013-01-01

for men (p=0.034) and borderline significant for women (p=0.054), while the integrated discrimination improvement was highly significant (P≤0.001) for both genders. CONCLUSIONS: suPAR provides prognostic information of CVD risk beyond FRS and improves risk prediction substantially when combined with CRP...... events were recorded. After adjusting for FRS, women with suPAR levels in the highest tertile had a 1.74-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-2.81, p=0.027) and men a 2.09-fold (95% CI: 1.37-3.18, p20%) risk categories, respectively. This was reflected in a significant improvement of C statistics...

Androgen deprivation therapy and cardiovascular risk in patients with prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, M.Y.; Haider, N.; Rasul, S.; Mahmood, A.; Nadeem, M.S.

2017-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) on risk of subsequent cardiovascular morbidity in men with prostate cancer. Study Design: Quasi experimental study. Place and Duration of Study: Department of oncology Combined Military Hospital Rawalpindi, from Sep 2014 to May 2015. Patients and Methods: Thirty consecutive patients fulfilling inclusion criteria were enrolled. All patients were subjected to medical castration/ androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with monthly 3.75 mg leuprorelin acetate intramuscular injection until castrate levels of testosterone (<50ng/dL) were achieved. We used Framingham's score for assessment of 10 years cardiovascular risk of individual patient before initiation and after completion of 6 months ADT. Serum lipid profile (fasting), systolic blood pressure, history of smoking, diabetes and antihypertensive medication were recorded. Proforma was designed to get clinical information. A p-value of <0.05 was considered significant. A paired-samples t-test was conducted to compare Framingham cardiovascular risk scores before initiation and after completion of 6 months ADT. Results: We enrolled 30 men with high/intermediate risk localized prostate cancer. Mean age was 63.47 +- 7.32 years. All patients received 6 months ADT with monthly 3.75mg leuprorelin acetate intramuscular injection. There was a significant difference in Framingham cardiovascular risk scores before (mean +- sd; 20.95 +- 7.98) and after (mean +- sd; 25.72 +- 6.15) 6 months ADT; t (29) =-4.54, p<0.01, two-tailed. Hence ADT resulted in a significant increase (mean +- sd; 25.7 +- 6.15) in 10 years cardiovascular morbidity risk t (29) =-4.54, p<0.01, two tailed. Subset analyses revealed significant increase in fasting serum total cholesterol, triglycerides and Low density lipoprotein (LDL) levels after 6 months ADT (p<0.01, <0.01 and <0.01 respectively) however high density lipoprotein (HDL) remained un-changed (p=0.043) in

Serum Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 and the Risk of Ischemic Stroke: The Framingham Study.

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Saber, Hamidreza; Himali, Jayandra J; Beiser, Alexa S; Shoamanesh, Ashkan; Pikula, Aleksandra; Roubenoff, Ronenn; Romero, Jose R; Kase, Carlos S; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Seshadri, Sudha

2017-07-01

Low insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) has been associated with increased risk of atherosclerosis and atrial fibrillation in cross-sectional studies. Yet, prospective data linking IGF-1 levels to the development of ischemic stroke remain inconclusive. We examined prospectively the association between serum IGF-1 levels and incident ischemic stroke. We measured serum IGF-1 levels in 757 elderly individuals (mean age 79±5, 62% women), free of prevalent stroke, from the Framingham original cohort participants at the 22nd examination cycle (1990-1994) and were followed up for the development of ischemic stroke. Cox models were used to relate IGF-1 levels to the risk for incident ischemic stroke, adjusted for potential confounders. During a mean follow-up of 10.2 years, 99 individuals developed ischemic stroke. After adjustment for age, sex, and potential confounders, higher IGF-1 levels were associated with a lower risk of incident ischemic stroke, with subjects in the lowest quintile of IGF-1 levels having a 2.3-fold higher risk of incident ischemic stroke (95% confidence interval, 1.09-5.06; P =0.03) as compared with those in the top quintile. We observed an effect modification by diabetes mellitus and waist-hip ratio for the association between IGF-1 and ischemic stroke ( P <0.1). In subgroup analyses, the effects were restricted to subjects with diabetics and those in top waist-hip ratio quartile, in whom each standard deviation increase in IGF-1 was associated with a 61% (hazard ratio, 0.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.78; P =0.007) and 41% (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.37-0.95; P =0.031) lower risk of incident ischemic stroke, respectively. IGF-1 levels were inversely associated with ischemic stroke, especially among persons with insulin resistance. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Risk score for first-screening of prevalent undiagnosed chronic kidney disease in Peru: the CRONICAS-CKD risk score.

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Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M; Miranda, J Jaime; Gilman, Robert H; Medina-Lezama, Josefina; Chirinos-Pacheco, Julio A; Muñoz-Retamozo, Paola V; Smeeth, Liam; Checkley, William; Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio

2017-11-29

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) represents a great burden for the patient and the health system, particularly if diagnosed at late stages. Consequently, tools to identify patients at high risk of having CKD are needed, particularly in limited-resources settings where laboratory facilities are scarce. This study aimed to develop a risk score for prevalent undiagnosed CKD using data from four settings in Peru: a complete risk score including all associated risk factors and another excluding laboratory-based variables. Cross-sectional study. We used two population-based studies: one for developing and internal validation (CRONICAS), and another (PREVENCION) for external validation. Risk factors included clinical- and laboratory-based variables, among others: sex, age, hypertension and obesity; and lipid profile, anemia and glucose metabolism. The outcome was undiagnosed CKD: eGFR anemia were strongly associated with undiagnosed CKD. In the external validation, at a cut-off point of 2, the complete and laboratory-free risk scores performed similarly well with a ROC area of 76.2% and 76.0%, respectively (P = 0.784). The best assessment parameter of these risk scores was their negative predictive value: 99.1% and 99.0% for the complete and laboratory-free, respectively. The developed risk scores showed a moderate performance as a screening test. People with a score of ≥ 2 points should undergo further testing to rule out CKD. Using the laboratory-free risk score is a practical approach in developing countries where laboratories are not readily available and undiagnosed CKD has significant morbidity and mortality.

Development of Health Parameter Model for Risk Prediction of CVD Using SVM

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P. Unnikrishnan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Current methods of cardiovascular risk assessment are performed using health factors which are often based on the Framingham study. However, these methods have significant limitations due to their poor sensitivity and specificity. We have compared the parameters from the Framingham equation with linear regression analysis to establish the effect of training of the model for the local database. Support vector machine was used to determine the effectiveness of machine learning approach with the Framingham health parameters for risk assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD. The result shows that while linear model trained using local database was an improvement on Framingham model, SVM based risk assessment model had high sensitivity and specificity of prediction of CVD. This indicates that using the health parameters identified using Framingham study, machine learning approach overcomes the low sensitivity and specificity of Framingham model.

A longitudinal analysis of the risk factors for diabetes and coronary heart disease in the Framingham Offspring Study

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Bhargava Alok

2003-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The recent trends in sedentary life-styles and weight gain are likely to contribute to chronic conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. The temporal sequence and pathways underlying these conditions can be modeled using the knowledge from the biomedical and social sciences. Methods The Framingham Offspring Study in the U.S. collected information on 5124 subjects at baseline, and 8, 12, 16, and 20 years after the baseline. Dynamic random effects models were estimated for the subjects' weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure using 4 time observations. Logistic and probit models were estimated for the probability of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD events. Results The subjects' age, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and cigarettes smoked were important predictors of the risk factors. Moreover, weight and height were found to differentially affect the probabilities of diabetes and CHD events; body weight was positively associated with the risk of diabetes while taller individuals had lower risk of CHD events. Conclusion The results showed the importance of joint modeling of body weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure that are risk factors for diabetes and CHD events. Lower body weight and LDL concentrations and higher HDL levels achieved via physical exercise are likely to reduce diabetes and CHD events.

Association Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Carpal Tunnel Syndrome in Pooled Occupational Cohorts.

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Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew Steven; Kapellusch, Jay; Merryweather, Andrew S; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Wood, Eric M; Kendall, Richard; Wertsch, Jacqueline; Foster, James; Garg, Arun; Drury, David L

2016-01-01

The aim of the study was to ascertain if cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors are carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) risk factors. Analysis of pooled baseline data from two large prospective cohort studies (n = 1824) assessed the relationships between a modified Framingham Heart Study CVD risk score both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study prevalence. Quantified job exposures, personal and psychosocial confounders were statistically controlled. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for individual risk scores. There was a strong relationship between CVD risk score and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study after adjustment for confounders, with odds ratios as high as 4.16 and 7.35, respectively. Dose responses were also observed. In this workplace population, there is a strong association between CVD risk scores and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study that persisted after controlling for confounders. These data suggest a potentially modifiable disease mechanism.

Cardiovascular and metabolic syndrome risk among men with and without erectile dysfunction: case-control study

OpenAIRE

Zambon, João Paulo; Mendonça, Rafaela Rosalba de; Wroclawski, Marcelo Langer; Karam Junior, Amir; Santos, Raul D.; Carvalho, José Antonio Maluf de; Wroclawski, Eric Roger

2010-01-01

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Erectile dysfunction has been associated with cardiovascular diseases. The aim here was to evaluate cardiovascular risk through the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) criteria, C-reactive protein (CRP) assays and presence of metabolic syndrome (MS) in men with and without erectile dysfunction diagnosed within a healthcare program. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective case-control study was conducted. The patients were selected from a healthcare program at the Hospital Israelita...

Decreasing cardiovascular risk in HIV infection between 2005 and 2011.

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De Socio, Giuseppe V; Parruti, Giustino; Ricci, Elena; Maggi, Paolo; Celesia, Benedetto M; Penco, Giovanni; Martinelli, Canio; Franzetti, Marco; Di Biagio, Antonio; Bonfanti, Paolo; Pucci, Giacomo; Schillaci, Giuseppe

2014-02-20

Cardiovascular risk profile was compared in 765 Italian HIV-infected outpatients enrolled in 2005 and in 765 individually age-matched and sex-matched patients enrolled in 2011. Median Framingham risk score was 8.6% in 2005 vs. 7.9% in 2011 (P = 0.04); metabolic syndrome was present in 40.3% vs. 33.4% (P = 0.006). Blood glucose, triglycerides, prevalence of smokers, and lipodystrophy were all significantly lower in 2011 (all P < 0.0001). Cardiovascular risk improved over a 6-year period in Italian HIV-infected patients.

Lowering risk score profile during PCI in multiple vessel disease is associated with low adverse events: The ERACI risk score.

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Rodriguez, Alfredo E; Fernandez-Pereira, Carlos; Mieres, Juan; Pavlovsky, Hernan; Del Pozo, Juan; Rodriguez-Granillo, Alfredo M; Antoniucci, David

2018-02-13

In recent years angiographic risk scores have been introduced in clinical practice to stratify different levels of risk after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). The SYNTAX score included all intermediate lesions in vessels ≥1.5 mm, consequently, multiple stent implantation was required. Four years ago, we built a new angiographic score in order to guide PCI strategy avoiding stent deployment both in intermediate stenosis as in small vessels, therefore these were not scored (ERACI risk score). The purpose of this mini review is to validate the strategy of PCI guided by this scoring, taking into account long term follow up outcomes of two observational and prospective registries where this policy was used. With this new risk score we have modified risk profile of our patient's candidates for PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery lowering the risk and PCI. The simple exclusion of small vessels and intermediate stenosis from the revascularization approach resulted in clinical outcome comparable with the one of fractional flow reserve guided revascularization. Low events rate at late follow up observed in both studies was also in agreement with guided PCI by functional lesion assessment observed by Syntax II registry, where investigators found lower events rate in spite of a few number of stents implanted per patient. use of ERACI risk scores may significantly reclassify patients into a lower risk category and be associated with low adverse events rate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Association of three genetic loci with uric acid concentration and risk of gout: a genome-wide association study.

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Dehghan, Abbas; Köttgen, Anna; Yang, Qiong; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Kao, Wh Linda; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Boerwinkle, Eric; Levy, Daniel; Hofman, Albert; Astor, Brad C; Benjamin, Emelia J; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Witteman, Jacqueline C; Coresh, Josef; Fox, Caroline S

2008-12-06

Hyperuricaemia, a highly heritable trait, is a key risk factor for gout. We aimed to identify novel genes associated with serum uric acid concentration and gout. Genome-wide association studies were done for serum uric acid in 7699 participants in the Framingham cohort and in 4148 participants in the Rotterdam cohort. Genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were replicated in white (n=11 024) and black (n=3843) individuals who took part in the study of Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC). The SNPs that reached genome-wide significant association with uric acid in either the Framingham cohort (pgout. The results obtained in white participants were combined using meta-analysis. Three loci in the Framingham cohort and two in the Rotterdam cohort showed genome-wide association with uric acid. Top SNPs in each locus were: missense rs16890979 in SLC2A9 (p=7.0 x 10(-168) and 2.9 x 10(-18) for white and black participants, respectively); missense rs2231142 in ABCG2 (p=2.5 x 10(-60) and 9.8 x 10(-4)), and rs1165205 in SLC17A3 (p=3.3 x 10(-26) and 0.33). All SNPs were direction-consistent with gout in white participants: rs16890979 (OR 0.59 per T allele, 95% CI 0.52-0.68, p=7.0 x 10(-14)), rs2231142 (1.74, 1.51-1.99, p=3.3 x 10(-15)), and rs1165205 (0.85, 0.77-0.94, p=0.002). In black participants of the ARIC study, rs2231142 was direction-consistent with gout (1.71, 1.06-2.77, p=0.028). An additive genetic risk score of high-risk alleles at the three loci showed graded associations with uric acid (272-351 mumol/L in the Framingham cohort, 269-386 mumol/L in the Rotterdam cohort, and 303-426 mumol/L in white participants of the ARIC study) and gout (frequency 2-13% in the Framingham cohort, 2-8% in the Rotterdam cohort, and 1-18% in white participants in the ARIC study). We identified three genetic loci associated with uric acid concentration and gout. A score based on genes with a putative role in renal urate handling showed a substantial risk

Optimal dietary calcium intake in HIV treated patients: no femoral osteoporosis but higher cardiovascular risk.

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Galli, Laura; Rubinacci, Alessandro; Cocorullo, Deborah; Salpietro, Stefania; Spagnuolo, Vincenzo; Gianotti, Nicola; Bigoloni, Alba; Vinci, Concetta; Mignogna, Giovanna; Sirtori, Marcella; Lazzarin, Adriano; Castagna, Antonella

2014-04-01

We performed a cross-sectional study on adult HIV-infected patients, on HAART, without calcium or vitamin D supplementation to evaluate if the cardiovascular risk or the presence of osteoporosis may be predictive factors of an optimal daily calcium intake (DCI>1000 mg/day). Patients underwent a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, measured biochemical parameters and compiled a validated questionnaire for the assessment of DCI. Osteoporosis (OP) was defined according to the WHO classification at either the vertebral spine or femoral neck. Cardiovascular risk was assessed by the 10-year Framingham cardiovascular risk score. 200 HIV-infected patients evaluated: 171 (86%) males with a median age of 48.1 (42.3-53.8) years and 10.6 (4.3-13.6) years of HAART exposure. DCI was 889 (589-1308) mg/day and 79 (40%) patients had an optimal DCI. Framingham risk>20% was found in 13 (6.7%) patients and femoral OP was diagnosed in 12 (6%) pts. By multivariate analysis, optimal DCI was more likely in patients with a Framingham risk>20% [OR = 5.547, 95% CI:1.337, p = 0.025] and less likely in patients with femoral osteoporosis [OR = 0.159, 95% CI: 0.018-0.790, p = 0.047]. We found that an optimal dietary calcium intake was more likely in patients with high cardiovascular risk and no femoral osteoporosis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Early-adulthood cardiovascular disease risk factor profiles among individuals with and without diabetes in the Framingham Heart Study.

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Preis, Sarah Rosner; Pencina, Michael J; Mann, Devin M; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Savage, Peter J; Fox, Caroline S

2013-06-01

Many studies of diabetes have examined risk factors at the time of diabetes diagnosis instead of considering the lifetime burden of adverse risk factor levels. We examined the 30-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor burden that participants have up to the time of diabetes diagnosis. Among participants free of CVD, incident diabetes cases (fasting plasma glucose ≥ 126 mg/dL or treatment) occurring at examinations 2 through 8 (1979-2008) of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort were age- and sex-matched 1:2 to controls. CVD risk factors (hypertension, high LDL cholesterol, low HDL cholesterol, high triglycerides, obesity) were measured at the time of diabetes diagnosis and at time points 10, 20, and 30 years prior. Conditional logistic regression was used to compare risk factor levels at each time point between diabetes cases and controls. We identified 525 participants with new-onset diabetes who were matched to 1,049 controls (mean age, 60 years; 40% women). Compared with those without diabetes, individuals who eventually developed diabetes had higher levels of hypertension (odds ratio [OR], 2.2; P = 0.003), high LDL (OR, 1.5; P = 0.04), low HDL (OR, 2.1; P = 0.0001), high triglycerides (OR, 1.7; P = 0.04), and obesity (OR, 3.3; P < 0.0001) at time points 30 years before diabetes diagnosis. After further adjustment for BMI, the ORs for hypertension (OR, 1.9; P = 0.02) and low HDL (OR, 1.7; P = 0.01) remained statistically significant. CVD risk factors are increased up to 30 years before diagnosis of diabetes. These findings highlight the importance of a life course approach to CVD risk factor identification among individuals at risk for diabetes.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

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Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

2014-12-02

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

Dependency of cardiovascular risk on reproductive stages and on age among middle-aged Chinese women.

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Sun, Y; Ruan, X; Mueck, A O

2017-10-01

To assess the 10-year cardiovascular risk in middle-aged Chinese women living in the same community and the impact of reproductive aging and age. This was a cross-sectional study in the Yuetan Community of Beijing. Data on lifestyle habits, prevalence and treatment of chronic diseases with significance for cardiovascular disease (CVD) development were collected by interview. CVD risk factors were assessed by physical examination and laboratory tests. The 10-year cardiovascular risk was calculated using the Framingham 10-year risk score. STRAW +10 criteria were used for the stages of reproductive aging. A total of 536 women, aged 40-60 years, were enrolled. The incidences of hypertension, dyslipidemia, abdominal obesity, glucose intolerance and diabetes were 32.6%, 45.7%, 65.5%, 37.9% and 10.1%, respectively. After adjustment, the incidence of hypertension and diabetes increased with age and with reproductive aging. Dyslipidemia and glucose intolerance were only associated with age. Abdominal obesity was related neither to age nor to reproductive aging. The 10-year cardiovascular risk ranged from 1% to 24.8%; 11.6% of women had a moderate or high Framingham 10-year risk score. CVD risk factors were frequent and more than 10% of the women were at moderate or high risk of developing cardiovascular disease within the next 10 years. To our knowledge, this was demonstrated for the first time in middle-aged Chinese women. Thus, women should maintain a healthy lifestyle and physicians should monitor them to prevent CVD.

Risk scores-the modern Oracle of Delphi?

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Kronenberg, Florian; Schwaiger, Johannes P

2017-03-01

Recently, 4 new risk scores for the prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events were especially tailored for hemodialysis patients; these scores performed much better than previous scores. Tripepi et al. found that these risk scores were even more predictive for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the measurement of the left ventricular mass index was. Nevertheless, the investigation of left ventricular mass and function has its own place for other reasons. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Total Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Hypertension and Impaired Glucose Tolerance

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I.V. Cherniavska

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Aim. Timely reveal of the patients at high risk of cardiovascular diseases for whom earlier intervention for cardiovascular risk correction is the most effective. Materials and methods. Seventy patients aged 30–55 years old with stage 2 hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT and high cardiovascular risk were examined according to Framingham criteria. Cardiovascular risk was compared by SCORE and PROCAM results. Results. Percentage ratio of males with high cardiovascular risk was higher by 52.3 % in comparison to females by SCORE and by 2.3 % in comparison to females by PROCAM. Males did not present any significant discrepancy by evaluation of cardiovascular risk by both scores unlike females. Obtained results showed that total cardiovascular risk in females was twofold higher by PROCAM compared to SCORE scale. Conclusions. Total cardiovascular risk level in patients with stage 2 hypertension and IGT is influenced by age, systolic blood pressure level, smoking, lipid storage disease and carbohydrate metabolism disorder. When we evaluate total cardiovascular risk, we should not be limited only by determination of factors determined in SCORE. It is reasonable to evaluate risk factors by PROCAM, too, especially for females.

Job strain and cardiovascular disease risk factors: meta-analysis of individual-participant data from 47,000 men and women.

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Solja T Nyberg

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Job strain is associated with an increased coronary heart disease risk, but few large-scale studies have examined the relationship of this psychosocial characteristic with the biological risk factors that potentially mediate the job strain - heart disease association. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We pooled cross-sectional, individual-level data from eight studies comprising 47,045 participants to investigate the association between job strain and the following cardiovascular disease risk factors: diabetes, blood pressure, pulse pressure, lipid fractions, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, obesity, and overall cardiovascular disease risk as indexed by the Framingham Risk Score. In age-, sex-, and socioeconomic status-adjusted analyses, compared to those without job strain, people with job strain were more likely to have diabetes (odds ratio 1.29; 95% CI: 1.11-1.51, to smoke (1.14; 1.08-1.20, to be physically inactive (1.34; 1.26-1.41, and to be obese (1.12; 1.04-1.20. The association between job strain and elevated Framingham risk score (1.13; 1.03-1.25 was attributable to the higher prevalence of diabetes, smoking and physical inactivity among those reporting job strain. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis of work-related stress and cardiovascular disease risk factors, job strain was linked to adverse lifestyle and diabetes. No association was observed between job strain, clinic blood pressure or blood lipids.

Interrelationships of Physical Activity and Sleep with Cardiovascular Risk Factors: a Person-Oriented Approach.

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Wennman, Heini; Kronholm, Erkki; Partonen, Timo; Tolvanen, Asko; Peltonen, Markku; Vasankari, Tommi; Borodulin, Katja

2015-12-01

Associations of behaviorally modifiable factors like physical activity (PA), sedentary behaviors, and sleep with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are complicated. We examined whether membership in latent classes (LCs) differentiated by PA and sleep profiles (real-life clustering of behaviors in population subgroups) associate with metabolic risk factors and CVD risk. The National FINRISK 2012 Study comprise a cross-sectional sample of 10,000 Finns aged 25 to 74 years. Analyses included participants with complete data on a health questionnaire, a health examination, who had no prevalent CVD (n = 4031). LCs with PA and sleep profiles were previously defined using latent class analysis. Ten metabolic risk factors and the Framingham 10-year CVD risk score were compared between the LCs. PA and sleep class profiles were substantially similar for genders. Compared to LC-1, with a profile including high PA and sufficient sleep, membership in LC-4, with a profile including sedentariness and insufficient sleep was associated with high metabolic risk factors in women but not in men. In women, also membership in LC-2, with a profile including light PA, sufficient sleep, and high sedentariness was associated with high metabolic risk factors. The Framingham 10-year CVD risk score was highest in LCs 2 and 4 in both genders. Membership in LCs differentiated by PA and sleep profiles was associated with metabolic risk factors merely in women, suggesting gender differences in the interrelationships of health behaviors and metabolic risk factors. Total CVD risk differed between the LCs despite of gender; however, the effect was small.

Serum urate gene associations with incident gout, measured in the Framingham Heart Study, are modified by renal disease and not by body mass index.

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Reynolds, Richard J; Vazquez, Ana I; Srinivasasainagendra, Vinodh; Klimentidis, Yann C; Bridges, S Louis; Allison, David B; Singh, Jasvinder A

2016-02-01

We hypothesized that serum urate-associated SNPs, individually or collectively, interact with BMI and renal disease to contribute to risk of incident gout. We measured the incidence of gout and associated comorbidities using the original and offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study. We used direct and imputed genotypes for eight validated serum urate loci. We fit binomial regression models of gout incidence as a function of the covariates, age, type 2 diabetes, sex, and all main and interaction effects of the eight serum urate SNPs with BMI and renal disease. Models were also fit with a genetic risk score for serum urate levels which corresponds to the sum of risk alleles at the eight SNPs. Model covariates, age (P = 5.95E-06), sex (P = 2.46E-39), diabetes (P = 2.34E-07), BMI (P = 1.14E-11) and the SNPs, rs1967017 (P = 9.54E-03), rs13129697 (P = 4.34E-07), rs2199936 (P = 7.28E-03) and rs675209 (P = 4.84E-02) were all associated with incident gout. No BMI by SNP or BMI by serum urate genetic risk score interactions were statistically significant, but renal disease by rs1106766 was statistically significant (P = 6.12E-03). We demonstrated that minor alleles of rs1106766 (intergenic, INHBC) were negatively associated with the risk of incident gout in subjects without renal disease, but not for individuals with renal disease. These analyses demonstrate that a significant component of the risk of gout may involve complex interplay between genes and environment.

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

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Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Protective association of milk intake on the risk of hip fracture: Results from the Framingham Original Cohort

OpenAIRE

Sahni, Shivani; Mangano, Kelsey M.; Tucker, Katherine L.; Kiel, Douglas P.; Casey, Virginia A.; Hannan, Marian T.

2014-01-01

Dairy foods are rich in bone beneficial nutrients, yet the role of dairy foods in hip fracture prevention remains controversial. The objective was to evaluate the association of milk, yogurt, cheese, cream and milk+yogurt intakes with incident hip fracture. 830 men and women from the Framingham Original Cohort, a prospective cohort study, completed a food frequency questionnaire (1988–89) and were followed for hip fracture until 2008. In this population-based study, Cox-proportional hazards r...

Physician assessment of stroke risk in hypertensive patients in the Middle East and Africa: results of the action survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Badr, Kamal F; Boudia, Khereddine M Merad; Alami, Mohamed; Khoja, Waleed A; Belhani, Ali B; Nawar, Moustafa; Ragy, Hany; Ishaq, Mohammad; Baron, J M Muscat; Hammoudeh, Ayman J; De Mar Youssef, Suzan S; Nakhle, Reine M; Chalfoun, Amale G

2007-01-01

In the absence of reliable, contemporary national data, the ACTION survey was designed to: a) provide preliminary data on stroke risk in the MEA (Middle East and Africa); b) describe the contribution of specific cardiovascular risk factors; 3) assess blood pressure (BP) control. This was a multi-center observational study in nine countries in the MEA region. From 2003 to 2005, 562 physicians from a variety of specialties recorded observations of cardiovascular risk factors in 4,747 hypertensive patients, aged 54-80 years. The 10-year absolute stroke risk was calculated using a scoring system based on the Framingham Heart Study observations, and comparisons made with an age-matched cohort. The mean 10-year stroke risk was estimated at 22.7% and was significantly higher for men (25.4%) than for women (19.5%) (P age-matched Framingham cohort, the estimated stroke risk in our population was almost double, and was significantly higher for females (212%) than for males (192%) (P < .001). Hypertension, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, and smoking were major contributing risk factors, as were physical inactivity and elevated cholesterol. Blood pressure was controlled in only 18% of the population and in 12% of diabetics. Physicians of all specialties were willing to participate in stroke risk assessment. The risk of stroke in hypertensive patients in the MEA region is high, and is higher than would be predicted using Framingham data, particularly for females. Hypertension appears to be poorly controlled in more than 80% of hypertensive patients in the MEA region.

Are current UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) obesity risk guidelines useful? Cross-sectional associations with cardiovascular disease risk factors in a large, representative English population.

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Tabassum, Faiza; Batty, G David

2013-01-01

The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) has recently released obesity guidelines for health risk. For the first time in the UK, we estimate the utility of these guidelines by relating them to the established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. Health Survey for England (HSE) 2006, a population-based cross-sectional study in England was used with a sample size of 7225 men and women aged ≥35 years (age range: 35-97 years). The following CVD risk factor outcomes were used: hypertension, diabetes, total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, glycated haemoglobin, fibrinogen, C-reactive protein and Framingham risk score. Four NICE categories of obesity were created based on body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC): no risk (up to normal BMI and low/high WC); increased risk (normal BMI & very high WC, or obese & low WC); high risk (overweight & very high WC, or obese & high WC); and very high risk (obese I & very high WC or obese II/III with any levels of WC. Men and women in the very high risk category had the highest odds ratios (OR) of having unfavourable CVD risk factors compared to those in the no risk category. For example, the OR of having hypertension for those in the very high risk category of the NICE obesity groupings was 2.57 (95% confidence interval 2.06 to 3.21) in men, and 2.15 (1.75 to 2.64) in women. Moreover, a dose-response association between the adiposity groups and most of the CVD risk factors was observed except total cholesterol in men and low HDL in women. Similar results were apparent when the Framingham risk score was the outcome of interest. In conclusion, the current NICE definitions of obesity show utility for a range of CVD risk factors and CVD risk in both men and women.

Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation according to optimal, borderline, or elevated levels of risk factors: cohort study based on longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study

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Staerk, Laila; Wang, Biqi; Preis, Sarah R; Larson, Martin G; Lubitz, Steven A; Ellinor, Patrick T; McManus, David D; Ko, Darae; Weng, Lu-Chen; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Frost, Lars; Benjamin, Emelia J

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine the association between risk factor burdens—categorized as optimal, borderline, or elevated—and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. Design Community based cohort study. Setting Longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study. Participants Individuals free of atrial fibrillation at index ages 55, 65, and 75 years were assessed. Smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, and history of heart failure or myocardial infarction were assessed as being optimal (that is, all risk factors were optimal), borderline (presence of borderline risk factors and absence of any elevated risk factor), or elevated (presence of at least one elevated risk factor) at index age. Main outcome measure Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation at index age up to 95 years, accounting for the competing risk of death. Results At index age 55 years, the study sample comprised 5338 participants (2531 (47.4%) men). In this group, 247 (4.6%) had an optimal risk profile, 1415 (26.5%) had a borderline risk profile, and 3676 (68.9%) an elevated risk profile. The prevalence of elevated risk factors increased gradually when the index ages rose. For index age of 55 years, the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 37.0% (95% confidence interval 34.3% to 39.6%). The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 23.4% (12.8% to 34.5%) with an optimal risk profile, 33.4% (27.9% to 38.9%) with a borderline risk profile, and 38.4% (35.5% to 41.4%) with an elevated risk profile. Overall, participants with at least one elevated risk factor were associated with at least 37.8% lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. The gradient in lifetime risk across risk factor burden was similar at index ages 65 and 75 years. Conclusions Regardless of index ages at 55, 65, or 75 years, an optimal risk factor profile was associated with a lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation of about one in five; this risk rose to more than one in three in individuals with at least

Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study.

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Carma Karam

Full Text Available Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs changes over the years in an untreated population-based study.Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated.The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002 and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001. The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001 and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113. The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001.Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population.

Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand Position Statement: Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring.

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Liew, Gary; Chow, Clara; van Pelt, Niels; Younger, John; Jelinek, Michael; Chan, Jonathan; Hamilton-Craig, Christian

2017-12-01

Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring (CAC) is a non-invasive quantitation of coronary artery calcification using computed tomography (CT). It is a marker of atherosclerotic plaque burden and an independent predictor of future myocardial infarction and mortality. Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring provides incremental risk information beyond traditional risk calculators (eg. Framingham Risk Score). Its use for risk stratification is confined to primary prevention of cardiovascular events, and can be considered as "individualised coronary risk scoring" for those not considered to be of high or low risk. Medical practitioners should carefully counsel patients prior to CAC. Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring should only be undertaken if an alteration in therapy including embarking on pharmacotherapy is being considered based on the test result. Patient Groups to Consider Coronary Calcium Scoring: Patient Groups in Whom Coronary Calcium Scoring Should Not be Considered: Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring is not recommended for patients who are: Interpretation of CAC CAC=0 A zero score confers a very low risk of death, 75th centile. Moderately high risk, 15-20% CAC >400 High risk, >20% Management Recommendations Based on CAC Optimal diet and lifestyle measures are encouraged in all risk groups and form the basis of primary prevention strategies. Patients with moderately-high or high risk based on CAC score are recommended to receive preventative medical therapy such as aspirin and statins. The evidence for pharmacotherapy is less robust in patients at intermediate levels of CAC 100-400, with modest benefit for aspirin use; though statins may be reasonable if they are above 75th centile. Aspirin and statins are generally not recommended in patients with CAC calcium score, routine re-scanning is not currently recommended. However, an annual increase in CAC of >15% or annual increase of CAC >100 units are predictive of future myocardial infarction and mortality. Cost Effectiveness of CAC

Obesity and Cardiovascular Risk: Variations in Visfatin Gene Can Modify the Obesity Associated Cardiovascular Risk. Results from the Segovia Population Based-Study. Spain.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Teresa Martínez Larrad

Full Text Available Our aim was to investigate if genetic variations in the visfatin gene (SNPs rs7789066/ rs11977021/rs4730153 could modify the cardiovascular-risk (CV-risk despite the metabolic phenotype (obesity and glucose tolerance. In addition, we investigated the relationship between insulin sensitivity and variations in visfatin gene.A population-based study in rural and urban areas of the Province of Segovia, Spain, was carried out in the period of 2001-2003 years. A total of 587 individuals were included, 25.4% subjects were defined as obese (BMI ≥30 Kg/m2.Plasma visfatin levels were significantly higher in obese subjects with DM2 than in other categories of glucose tolerance. The genotype AA of the rs4730153 SNP was significantly associated with fasting glucose, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (Homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance after adjustment for gender, age, BMI and waist circumference. The obese individuals carrying the CC genotype of the rs11977021 SNP showed higher circulating levels of fasting proinsulin after adjustment for the same variables. The genotype AA of the rs4730153 SNP seems to be protective from CV-risk either estimated by Framingham or SCORE charts in general population; and in obese and non-obese individuals. No associations with CV-risk were observed for other studied SNPs (rs11977021/rs7789066.In summary, this is the first study which concludes that the genotype AA of the rs4730153 SNP appear to protect against CV-risk in obese and non-obese individuals, estimated by Framingham and SCORE charts. Our results confirm that the different polymorphisms in the visfatin gene might be influencing the glucose homeostasis in obese individuals.

Ethnicity and the association between anthropometric indices of obesity and cardiovascular risk in women: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Goh, Louise G H; Dhaliwal, Satvinder S; Welborn, Timothy A; Lee, Andy H; Della, Phillip R

2014-05-22

The objectives of this study were to determine whether the cross-sectional associations between anthropometric obesity measures, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and calculated 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using the Framingham and general CVD risk score models, are the same for women of Australian, UK and Ireland, North European, South European and Asian descent. This study would investigate which anthropometric obesity measure is most predictive at identifying women at increased CVD risk in each ethnic group. Cross-sectional data from the National Heart Foundation Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Population-based survey in Australia. 4354 women aged 20-69 years with no history of heart disease, diabetes or stroke. Most participants were of Australian, UK and Ireland, North European, South European or Asian descent (97%). Anthropometric obesity measures that demonstrated stronger predictive ability of identifying women at increased CVD risk and likelihood of being above the promulgated treatment thresholds of various risk score models. Central obesity measures, WC and WHR, were better predictors of cardiovascular risk. WHR reported a stronger predictive ability than WC and BMI in Caucasian women. In Northern European women, BMI was a better indicator of risk using the general CVD (10% threshold) and Framingham (20% threshold) risk score models. WC was the most predictive of cardiovascular risk among Asian women. Ethnicity should be incorporated into CVD assessment. The same anthropometric obesity measure cannot be used across all ethnic groups. Ethnic-specific CVD prevention and treatment strategies need to be further developed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The Veterans Affairs Cardiac Risk Score: Recalibrating the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score for Applied Use.

Science.gov (United States)

Sussman, Jeremy B; Wiitala, Wyndy L; Zawistowski, Matthew; Hofer, Timothy P; Bentley, Douglas; Hayward, Rodney A

2017-09-01

Accurately estimating cardiovascular risk is fundamental to good decision-making in cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but risk scores developed in one population often perform poorly in dissimilar populations. We sought to examine whether a large integrated health system can use their electronic health data to better predict individual patients' risk of developing CVD. We created a cohort using all patients ages 45-80 who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) ambulatory care services in 2006 with no history of CVD, heart failure, or loop diuretics. Our outcome variable was new-onset CVD in 2007-2011. We then developed a series of recalibrated scores, including a fully refit "VA Risk Score-CVD (VARS-CVD)." We tested the different scores using standard measures of prediction quality. For the 1,512,092 patients in the study, the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score had similar discrimination as the VARS-CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 in men and 0.73 in women), but the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease model had poor calibration, predicting 63% more events than observed. Calibration was excellent in the fully recalibrated VARS-CVD tool, but simpler techniques tested proved less reliable. We found that local electronic health record data can be used to estimate CVD better than an established risk score based on research populations. Recalibration improved estimates dramatically, and the type of recalibration was important. Such tools can also easily be integrated into health system's electronic health record and can be more readily updated.

Risk scoring for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Karmali, Kunal N; Persell, Stephen D; Perel, Pablo; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Berendsen, Mark A; Huffman, Mark D

2017-03-14

The current paradigm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) emphasises absolute risk assessment to guide treatment decisions in primary prevention. Although the derivation and validation of multivariable risk assessment tools, or CVD risk scores, have attracted considerable attention, their effect on clinical outcomes is uncertain. To assess the effects of evaluating and providing CVD risk scores in adults without prevalent CVD on cardiovascular outcomes, risk factor levels, preventive medication prescribing, and health behaviours. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library (2016, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March week 1 2016), Embase (embase.com) (1974 to 15 March 2016), and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S) (1990 to 15 March 2016). We imposed no language restrictions. We searched clinical trial registers in March 2016 and handsearched reference lists of primary studies to identify additional reports. We included randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing the systematic provision of CVD risk scores by a clinician, healthcare professional, or healthcare system compared with usual care (i.e. no systematic provision of CVD risk scores) in adults without CVD. Three review authors independently selected studies, extracted data, and evaluated study quality. We used the Cochrane 'Risk of bias' tool to assess study limitations. The primary outcomes were: CVD events, change in CVD risk factor levels (total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and multivariable CVD risk), and adverse events. Secondary outcomes included: lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication prescribing in higher-risk people. We calculated risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data and mean differences (MD) or standardised mean differences (SMD) for continuous data using 95% confidence intervals. We used a fixed-effects model when heterogeneity (I²) was at least 50% and a random-effects model for substantial heterogeneity

Modelo predictivo de "score" de calcio alto en pacientes con factores de riesgo cardiovascular Predictive model of high calcium score in patients with cardiovascular risk factors

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Gloria Franco

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Introducción: a través de múltiples estudios, se ha encontrado que el "score" de calcio coronario es un buen predictor de enfermedad coronaria, en individuos asintomáticos con uno o más factores de riesgo cardiovascular. Por ello sería ideal realizar esta prueba para estratificar su riesgo, pero esto no es posible en la mayoría de los casos por motivos de índole económica. El modelo que se presenta permite predecir la probabilidad de que un paciente tenga un score de calcio coronario alto, a partir de sus factores de riesgo cardiovascular. Lo novedoso del modelo es que también involucra factores "protectores" que disminuyen dicha probabilidad. Métodos: estudio de casos y controles, en pacientes asintomáticos con factores de riesgo cardiovascular, a quienes se les realizó un PCC. Los casos son pacientes con score de calcio coronario por encima del percentil 75 para su edad y género; la relación control:caso es 2:1. Resultados: las edades oscilaron entre 35 y 75 años; el 14,4% eran de género femenino, el 44,4% tenían historia familiar de CHD, el 34,4% eran hipertensos, el 38,9% colesterol total elevado, el 24,4% colesterol HDL por debajo de 40 mg/dL, el 33,3% colesterol LDL por encima de 160 mg/dL, el 25,6% fumaban, el 23,3% eran sedentarios, el 13,3% consumían licor periódicamente, el 15,6% eran obesos (IMC>30, el 18,9% realizaban ejercicio de manera periódica y 34,4% tomaba estatinas. Los factores de riesgo cardiovascular que se correlacionaron con el score de calcio coronario alto, se consignan en la tabla 1. En el modelo de regresión logística se incluyen los factores que tienen un valor de p tabla 2. La expresión para el modelo sería: Los valores de ci son 1, si el factor está presente y 0 si no lo está. Conclusiones: el anterior modelo no pretende reemplazar la estratificación con el modelo de Framingham, al contrario, es un complemento que permite orientar al médico tratante sobre si es recomendable realizar la

Comparing Bleeding Risk Assessment Focused on Modifiable Risk Factors Only Versus Validated Bleeding Risk Scores in Atrial Fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Yutao; Zhu, Hang; Chen, Yundai

2018-01-01

BACKGROUNDThere is uncertainty whether a focus on modifiable bleeding risk factors offers better prediction of major bleeding than other existing bleeding risk scores.METHODSThis study compared a score based on numbers of the modifiable bleeding risk factors recommended in the 2016 European...... guidelines ("European risk score") versus other published bleeding risk scores that have been derived and validated in atrial fibrillation subjects (HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and ORBIT) in a large hospital-based cohort of Chinese inpatients with atrial fibrillation.RESULTSThe European score had modest...... predictive ability for major bleeding (c-index 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.69) and intracranial hemorrhage (0.72, 0.65-0.79) but nonsignificantly (and poorly) predicted extracranial bleeding (0.55, 0.54-0.56; P = .361). The HAS-BLED score was superior to predict bleeding events compared...

The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael

2017-06-01

The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Foot Function, Foot Pain, and Falls in Older Adults: The Framingham Foot Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Awale, Arunima; Hagedorn, Thomas J; Dufour, Alyssa B; Menz, Hylton B; Casey, Virginia A; Hannan, Marian T

2017-01-01

Although foot pain has been linked to fall risk, contributions of pain severity, foot posture, or foot function are unclear. These factors were examined in a cohort of older adults. The purpose of this study was to examine the associations of foot pain, severity of foot pain, and measures of foot posture and dynamic foot function with reported falls in a large, well-described cohort of older adults from the Framingham Foot Study. Foot pain, posture, and function were collected from Framingham Foot Study participants who were queried about falls over the past year (0, 1, and ≥2 falls). Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the relation of falls with foot pain, pain severity, foot posture, and foot function adjusting for covariates. The mean age of the 1,375 participants was 69 years; 57% were female, and 21% reported foot pain (40% mild pain, 47% moderate pain, and 13% severe pain). One-third reported falls in the past year (1 fall: n = 263, ≥2 falls: n = 152). Foot pain was associated with a 62% increased odds of recurrent falls. Those with moderate and severe foot pain showed increased odds of ≥2 falls (OR 1.78, CI 1.06-2.99, and OR 3.25, CI 1.65-7.48, respectively) compared to those with no foot pain. Foot function was not associated with falls. Compared to normal foot posture, those with planus foot posture had 78% higher odds of ≥2 falls. Higher odds of recurrent falls were observed in individuals with foot pain, especially severe foot pain, as well as in individuals with planus foot posture, indicating that both foot pain and foot posture may play a role in increasing the risk of falls among older adults. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Functional Movement Screen: Pain versus composite score and injury risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Alemany, Joseph A; Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson; Anderson, Morgan K; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

2017-11-01

The Functional Movement Screen (FMS™) has been used as a screening tool to determine musculoskeletal injury risk using composite scores based on movement quality and/or pain. However, no direct comparisons between movement quality and pain have been quantified. Retrospective injury data analysis. Male Soldiers (n=2154, 25.0±1.3years; 26.2±.7kg/m 2 ) completed the FMS (scored from 0 points (pain) to 3 points (no pain and perfect movement quality)) with injury data over the following six months. The FMS is seven movements. Injury data were collected six months after FMS completion. Sensitivity, specificity, receiver operator characteristics and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for pain occurrence and low (≤14 points) composite score. Risk, risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for injury risk. Pain was associated with slightly higher injury risk (RR=1.62) than a composite score of ≤14 points (RR=1.58). When comparing injury risk between those who scored a 1, 2 or 3 on each individual movement, no differences were found (except deep squat). However, Soldiers who experienced pain on any movement had a greater injury risk than those who scored 3 points for that movement (pmovements in which pain occurrence increased, so did injury risk (p<0.01). Pain occurrence may be a stronger indicator of injury risk than a low composite score and provides a simpler method of evaluating injury risk compared to the full FMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores

Science.gov (United States)

Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond

2016-01-01

“Big data” and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of “perfect” risk scoring under a given contract. PMID:27429712

Awareness of Individual Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Self-Perception of Cardiovascular Risk in Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Monsuez, Jean-Jacques; Pham, Tai; Karam, Nicole; Amar, Laurence; Chicheportiche-Ayache, Corinne; Menasché, Philippe; Desnos, Michel; Dardel, Paul; Weill, Isabelle

2017-09-01

Cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) self-perception by women may be inaccurate. A questionnaire was completed anonymously Online by women who self-reported their personal CVRF levels including age, weight, contraceptive use, menopausal status, smoking, diet and physical activities. Self-perceived risk was matched to actual cardiovascular risk according to the Framingham score. Among 5,240 young and middle-aged women with a high educational level, knowledge of personal CVRFs increased with age, from 51-90% for blood pressure (BP), 22-45% for blood glucose and 15-47% for blood cholesterol levels, between 30 and 65 years, respectively. This knowledge was lower for smoking compared with nonsmoking women: 62.5% vs. 74.5% for BP (P self-perception of individual risk are inaccurate in women. Educational interventions should be emphasized. Copyright © 2017 Southern Society for Clinical Investigation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MODELING CREDIT RISK THROUGH CREDIT SCORING

OpenAIRE

Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

2014-01-01

Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

Clinical risk stratification optimizes value of biomarkers to predict new-onset heart failure in a community-based cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Brouwers, Frank P; van Gilst, Wiek H; Damman, Kevin; van den Berg, Maarten P; Gansevoort, Ron T; Bakker, Stephan J L; Hillege, Hans L; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J; van der Harst, Pim; de Boer, Rudolf A

2014-09-01

We aim to identify and quantify the value of biomarkers for incident new-onset heart failure (HF) in a community-based cohort and subgroups based on cardiovascular risk and evaluate the prognostic value of 13 biomarkers for HF with reduced and preserved ejection fraction. Thirteen biomarkers reflecting diverse pathophysiologic domains were examined in 8569 HF-free participants in Prevention of Vascular and Renal Endstage Disease (mean age, 49 years; 50% men). Subjects were categorized in 2 risk groups based on cardiovascular history. Incremental value per biomarker was assessed using Harrell C-indices. One hundred sixty-eight subjects (2.4%) were diagnosed with new-onset HF in the low-risk group (n=6915; Framingham Risk Score, 5.9%) and 206 (12.2%) subjects in the high-risk group (n=1654; Framingham Risk Score, 18.6%). The association of natriuretic peptides, adrenomedullin, endothelin, and galectin-3 with new-onset HF was stronger in the high-risk group (all Prisk for new-onset HF between both risk groups. The best model for new-onset HF included the combination of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin-T, and urinary albumin excretion, increasing model accuracy to 0.81 (9.5%, Prisk group. Except for a modest effect of cystatin-C, no biomarker was associated with increased risk for HF with preserved ejection fraction. Risk stratification increases the incremental value per biomarker to predict new-onset HF, especially HF with reduced ejection fraction. We suggest that routine biomarker testing should be limited to the use of natriuretic peptides and troponin-T in patients with increased cardiovascular risk. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Dydrogesterone does not reverse the cardiovascular benefits of percutaneous estradiol.

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Kuba, V M; Teixeira, M A M; Meirelles, R M R; Assumpção, C R L; Costa, O S

2013-02-01

To evaluate the influence of dydrogesterone on estimated cardiovascular risk of users of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) (with percutaneous 17β-estradiol in monotherapy and in combination with dydrogesterone) and HRT non-users through the Framingham score tool for a period of 2 years. Framingham scores were calculated from the medical records of patients treated for at least 2 years with 17β-estradiol alone or in combination with dydrogesterone, along with HRT non-users, through the analysis of patient medical records, followed for at least 2 years at Instituto Estadual de Diabetes e Endocrinologia Luiz Capriglione. Improvements in lipid profile, glucose and blood pressure levels, which reduced the estimated cardiovascular risk, were observed in the 17β-estradiol group. Similar changes were observed in the users of 17β-estradiol + dydrogesterone, suggesting that this progestogen does not attenuate the effects caused by 17β-estradiol. Both HRT groups showed a reduction in their Framingham score. In contrast to data from other HRT investigations on cardiovascular risk, these formulations proved to be safe, even in the first year of use.

Hypertriglyceridemia and waist circumference predict cardiovascular risk among HIV patients: a cross-sectional study.

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Peter M Janiszewski

Full Text Available Although half of HIV-infected patients develop lipodystrophy and metabolic complications, there exists no simple clinical screening tool to discern the high from the low-risk HIV-infected patient. Thus, we evaluated the associations between waist circumference (WC combined with triglyceride (TG levels and the severity of lipodystrophy and cardiovascular risk among HIV-infected men and women.1481 HIV-infected men and 841 HIV-infected women were recruited between 2005 and 2009 at the metabolic clinic of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia in Italy. Within each gender, patients were categorized into 4 groups according to WC and TG levels. Total and regional fat and fat-free mass were assessed by duel-energy x-ray absorptiometry, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT and abdominal subcutaneous AT (SAT were quantified by computed tomography. Various cardiovascular risk factors were assessed in clinic after an overnight fast.The high TG/high WC men had the most VAT (208.0 ± 94.4 cm(2, as well as the highest prevalence of metabolic syndrome (42.2% and type-2 diabetes (16.2%, and the highest Framingham risk score (10.3 ± 6.5 in comparison to other groups (p<0.05 for all. High TG/high WC women also had elevated VAT (150.0 ± 97.9 cm(2 and a higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome (53.3%, hypertension (30.5% and type-2 diabetes (12.0%, and Framingham risk score(2.9 ± 2.8 by comparison to low TG/low WC women (p<0.05 for all.A simple tool combining WC and TG levels can discriminate high- from low-risk HIV-infected patients.

Hypertriglyceridemia and Waist Circumference Predict Cardiovascular Risk among HIV Patients: A Cross-Sectional Study

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Janiszewski, Peter M.; Ross, Robert; Despres, Jean-Pierre; Lemieux, Isabelle; Orlando, Gabriella; Carli, Federica; Bagni, Pietro; Menozzi, Marianna; Zona, Stefano; Guaraldi, Giovanni

2011-01-01

Background Although half of HIV-infected patients develop lipodystrophy and metabolic complications, there exists no simple clinical screening tool to discern the high from the low-risk HIV-infected patient. Thus, we evaluated the associations between waist circumference (WC) combined with triglyceride (TG) levels and the severity of lipodystrophy and cardiovascular risk among HIV-infected men and women. Methods 1481 HIV-infected men and 841 HIV-infected women were recruited between 2005 and 2009 at the metabolic clinic of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia in Italy. Within each gender, patients were categorized into 4 groups according to WC and TG levels. Total and regional fat and fat-free mass were assessed by duel-energy x-ray absorptiometry, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and abdominal subcutaneous AT (SAT) were quantified by computed tomography. Various cardiovascular risk factors were assessed in clinic after an overnight fast. Results The high TG/high WC men had the most VAT (208.0±94.4 cm2), as well as the highest prevalence of metabolic syndrome (42.2%) and type-2 diabetes (16.2%), and the highest Framingham risk score (10.3±6.5) in comparison to other groups (p<0.05 for all). High TG/high WC women also had elevated VAT (150.0±97.9 cm2) and a higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome (53.3%), hypertension (30.5%) and type-2 diabetes (12.0%), and Framingham risk score(2.9±2.8) by comparison to low TG/low WC women (p<0.05 for all). Conclusions A simple tool combining WC and TG levels can discriminate high- from low-risk HIV-infected patients. PMID:21966404

Transient global amnesia and neurological events: the Framingham Heart Study

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Jose Rafael Romero

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Background/ objective: Transient global amnesia (TGA is a temporary amnestic syndrome characterized by lack of other focal neurological deficits. Cerebrovascular disease, migraine and seizures have been suggested as underlying mechanisms. TGA may be a risk factor for cerebrovascular or other neurological events. We studied the relation of TGA, vascular risk factors, brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI indices of subclinical ischemia and neurological events in a community-based sample. Design/setting: A total of 12 TGA cases were ascertained using standard criteria by experienced neurologists, and matched to 41 stroke- and seizure-free controls. Vascular risk factors, brain MRI findings, and subsequent cerebrovascular or seizure events were compared in cases and controls. Participants: Framingham Heart Study (FHS original and offspring cohort participants were included.Results: No significant differences between the groups were observed in the prevalence of vascular risk factors, or brain MRI measures. Few incident stroke/transient ischemic attacks (TIA (1 event among the cases and 4 in controls or subsequent seizures occurred in either group. Head CT during the acute event (n=11 and brain MRI (n=7 were negative for acute abnormalities. Electroencephalograms (EEG (n=5 were negative for epileptiform activity. Extracranial vascular studies were negative for significant stenosis in all cases.Conclusions: In our community-based study TGA was not related to traditional vascular risk factors, or cerebrovascular disease. However, our study is limited by small sample size and power, and larger studies are required to exclude an association.

Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

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Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang

2018-01-01

To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

The Prevalence of Cardiac Risk Factors in Men with Localized Prostate Cancer Undergoing Androgen Deprivation Therapy in British Columbia, Canada

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Margot K. Davis

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background. While androgen deprivation therapy (ADT reduces the risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality in high-risk localized prostate cancer, it adversely affects cardiovascular (CV risk factor profiles in treated men. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed the charts of 100 consecutive men with intermediate- or high-risk localized prostate cancer referred to the British Columbia Cancer Agency for ADT. Data on CV risk factors and disease were collected and Framingham risk scores were calculated. Results. The median age of the study cohort was 73 years. Established cardiovascular disease was present in 25% of patients. Among patients without established CV disease, calculated Framingham risk was high in 65%, intermediate in 33%, and low in 1%. Baseline hypertension was present in 58% of patients, dyslipidemia in 51%, and diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance in 24%. Hypertension was more prevalent in the study cohort than in an age- and sex-matched population sample (OR 1.74, P=0.006; diabetes had a similar prevalence (OR 0.93, P=0.8. Conclusions. Patients receiving ADT have a high prevalence of cardiovascular disease and risk factors and are more likely to be hypertensive than population controls. Low rates of CV risk screening suggest opportunities for improved primary and secondary prevention of CV disease in this population.

Worksite Opportunities for Wellness (WOW): effects on cardiovascular disease risk factors after 1 year.

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Racette, Susan B; Deusinger, Susan S; Inman, Cindi L; Burlis, Tamara L; Highstein, Gabrielle R; Buskirk, Trent D; Steger-May, Karen; Peterson, Linda R

2009-01-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of a worksite health promotion program on improving cardiovascular disease risk factors. In St Louis, Missouri from 2005 to 2006, 151 employees (134 F, 17 M, 81% overweight/obese) participated in a cohort-randomized trial comparing assessments + intervention (worksite A) with assessments only (worksite B) for 1 year. All participants received personal health reports containing their assessment results. The intervention was designed to promote physical activity and favorable dietary patterns using pedometers, healthy snack cart, WeightWatchers(R) meetings, group exercise classes, seminars, team competitions, and participation rewards. Outcomes included BMI, body composition, blood pressure, fitness, lipids, and Framingham 10-year coronary heart disease risk. 123 participants, aged 45+/-9 yr, with BMI 32.9+/-8.8 kg/m(2) completed 1 year. Improvements (P< or =0.05) were observed at both worksites for fitness, blood pressure, and total-, HDL-, and LDL-cholesterol. Additional improvements occurred at worksite A in BMI, fat mass, Framingham risk score, and prevalence of the metabolic syndrome; only the changes in BMI and fat mass were different between worksites. A multi-faceted worksite intervention promoted favorable changes in cardiovascular disease risk factors, but many of the improvements were achieved with worksite health assessments and personalized health reports in the absence of an intervention.

Risk score for contrast induced nephropathy following percutaneous coronary intervention

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghani, Amal Abdel; Tohamy, Khalid Y.

2009-01-01

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is an important cause of acute renal failure. Identification of risk factors of CIN and creating a simple risk scoring for CIN after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is important. A prospective single center study was conducted in Kuwait chest disease hospital. All patients admitted to chest disease hospital for PCI from March to May 2005 were included in the study. Total of 247 patients were randomly assigned for the development dataset and 100 for the validation set using the simple random method. The overall occurrence of CIN in the development set was 5.52%. Using multivariate analysis; basal Serum creatinine, shock, female gender, multivessel PCI, and diabetes mellitus were identified as risk factors. Scores assigned to different variables yielded basal creatinine > 115 micron mol/L with the highest score(7), followed by shock (3), female gender, multivessel PCI and diabetes mellitus had the same score (2). Patients were further risk stratified into low risk score ( 1 2). The developed CIN model demonstrated good discriminative power in the validation population. In conclusion, use of a simple risk score for CIN can predict the probability of CIN after PCI; this however needs further validation in larger multicenter trials. (author)

A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons.

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Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A

2010-07-01

To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.

Thrombotic risk assessment in APS: the Global APS Score (GAPSS).

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Sciascia, S; Bertolaccini, M L

2014-10-01

Recently, we developed a risk score for antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (Global APS Score or GAPSS). This score derived from the combination of independent risk factors for thrombosis and pregnancy loss, taking into account the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) profile (criteria and non-criteria aPL), the conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and the autoimmune antibodies profile. We demonstrate that risk profile in APS can be successfully assessed, suggesting that GAPSS can be a potential quantitative marker of APS-related clinical manifestations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

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Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

2016-02-01

Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk.

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Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Figueroa, Jonine D; Skinner, Halcyon G; Engelman, Corinne D; Klein, Barbara E; Titus, Linda J; Newcomb, Polly A

2013-07-01

We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1,484 breast cancer cases and 1,307 controls who participated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three US states. A polygenic score was created as the sum of risk allele copies multiplied by the corresponding log odds estimate. Logistic regression was used to test the associations between SNPs, the score, reproductive and menstrual factors, and breast cancer risk. Nonlinearity of the score was assessed by the inclusion of a quadratic term for polygenic score. Interactions between the aforementioned variables were tested by including a cross-product term in models. We confirmed associations between rs13387042 (2q35), rs4973768 (SLC4A7), rs10941679 (5p12), rs2981582 (FGFR2), rs3817198 (LSP1), rs3803662 (TOX3), and rs6504950 (STXBP4) with breast cancer. Women in the score's highest quintile had 2.2-fold increased risk when compared to women in the lowest quintile (95 % confidence interval: 1.67-2.88). The quadratic polygenic score term was not significant in the model (p = 0.85), suggesting that the established breast cancer loci are not associated with increased risk more than the sum of risk alleles. Modifications of menstrual and reproductive risk factors associations with breast cancer risk by polygenic score were not observed. Our results suggest that the interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and reproductive factors are not strong contributors to breast cancer risk.

[Risk scores for community acquired pneumonia in elderly and geriatric patients].

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Pflug, M A; Wesemann, T; Heppner, H J; Thiem, U

2015-10-01

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is still an important and serious disease for elderly and geriatric patients. For epidemiological and clinical reasons it is important to collate the frequencies of the various degrees of severity of CAP and to obtain information on the spread and degree of the threat to the various risk groups by CAP. In outpatient treatment a simple to execute prognosis score can be used to objectify the assessment of the clinical status of a patient and to support therapeutic decision-making. For this purpose knowledge of the appropriate instruments should be available to potential users. Since the 1990s a variety of risk scores for stratification of CAP have been developed and evaluated. This article presents the content and value of the available risk scores whereby the advantages and disadvantages of the individual scores are critically compared. Special emphasis is placed on the importance of the risk scores for geriatric patients. At present the decision about outpatient or inpatient treatment is primarily based on the risk score CRB-65. Criteria for intensive care unit admissions are provided by the modified American Thoracic Society (ATS) set of criteria. Overall, risk scores are less reliable for elderly patients than for younger adults. For treatment decisions for the elderly, functional aspects should also be considered in addition to the aspects of risk scores discussed here. In particular, the decision about inpatient admission for elderly, geriatric CAP patients should be made on an individual basis taking the benefit-risk relationship into consideration.

Anterior mediastinal masses in the Framingham Heart Study: Prevalence and CT image characteristics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Araki, Tetsuro; Nishino, Mizuki; Gao, Wei; Dupuis, Josée; Washko, George R.; Hunninghake, Gary M.; Murakami, Takamichi; O’Connor, George T.; Hatabu, Hiroto

2015-01-01

To investigate the prevalence and CT image characteristics of anterior mediastinal masses in a population-based cohort and their association with the demographics of the participants. Chest CT scans of 2571 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age 58.9 years, 51% female) were evaluated by two board-certified radiologists with expertise in thoracic imaging for the presence of anterior mediastinal masses, their shape, contour, location, invasion of adjacent structures, fat content, and calcification. For participants with anterior mediastinal masses, a previous cardiac CT scan was reviewed for interval size change of the masses, when available. The demographics of the participants were studied for any association with the presence of anterior mediastinal masses. Of 2571, 23 participants (0.9%, 95% CI: 0.6–1.3) had anterior mediastinal masses on CT. The most common CT characteristics were oval shape, lobular contour, and midline location, showing soft tissue density (median 32.1 HU). Fat content was detected in a few cases (9%, 2/23). Six out of eight masses with available prior cardiac CT scans demonstrated an interval growth over a median period of 6.5 years. No risk factors for anterior mediastinal masses were detected among participants’ demographics, including age, sex, BMI, and cigarette smoking. The prevalence of anterior mediastinal masses is 0.9% in the Framingham Heart Study. Those masses may increase in size when observed over 5–7 years. Investigation of clinical significance in incidentally found anterior mediastinal masses with a longer period of follow-up would be necessary

Prostate cancer staging with extracapsular extension risk scoring using multiparametric MRI

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boesen, Lars; Chabanova, Elizaveta; Løgager, Vibeke

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of preoperative multiparametric MRI with extracapsular extension (ECE) risk-scoring in the assessment of prostate cancer tumour stage (T-stage) and prediction of ECE at final pathology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighty-seven patients with clinically....../87 (36 %) patients. ECE risk-scoring showed an AUC of 0.65-0.86 on ROC-curve for both readers, with sensitivity and specificity of 81 % and 78 % at best cutoff level (reader A), respectively. When tumour characteristics were influenced by personal opinion, the sensitivity and specificity for prediction...... technique for preoperative prostate cancer staging • ECE risk scoring predicts extracapsular tumour extension at final pathology • ECE risk scoring shows an AUC of 0.86 on the ROC-curve • ECE risk scoring shows a moderate inter-reader agreement (K = 0.45) • Multiparametric MRI provides essential knowledge...

Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

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Abdo Karim Tourkmani

2017-03-01

Full Text Available AIM: To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS: The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases, incomplete medical notes (5 cases and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases. We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS: Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P0.05 between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05, although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION: After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y.

Profile of individuals who are metabolically healthy obese using different definition criteria. A population-based analysis in the Spanish population.

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Martínez-Larrad, María Teresa; Corbatón Anchuelo, Arturo; Del Prado, Náyade; Ibarra Rueda, José María; Gabriel, Rafael; Serrano-Ríos, Manuel

2014-01-01

Obesity is associated with numerous metabolic complications such as diabetes mellitus type 2, dyslipidemia, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and several forms of cancer. Our goal was to compare different criteria to define the metabolically healthy obese (MHO) with metabolically unhealthy obese (MUHO) subjects. We applied Wildman (W), Wildman modified (WM) with insulin resistance (IR) with cut-off point ≥ 3.8 and levels of C- Reactive Protein (CRP) ≥ 3 mg/l; and Consensus Societies (CS) criteria. In these subjects cardiovascular-risk (CV-risk) was estimated by Framingham score and SCORE for MHO and MUHO. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Spanish Caucasian adults. A total of 3,844 subjects completed the study, 45% males, aged 35-74 years. Anthropometric/biochemical variables were measured. Obesity was defined as BMI: ≥ 30 Kg/m(2). The overall prevalence of obesity in our population was 27.5%, (23.7%/males and 30.2%/females). MHO prevalence according to W, WM, and CS definition criteria were: 9.65%, 16.29%, 39.94% respectively in obese participants. MHO has lower waist circumference (WC) measurements than MUHO. The estimated CV-risks by Framingham and SCORE Project charts were lower in MHO than MUHO subjects. WC showed high specificity and sensitivity in detecting high estimated CV risk by Framingham. However, WHR showed high specificity and sensitivity in detecting CV risk according to SCORE Project. MHO subjects as defined by any of the three criteria had higher adiponectin levels after adjustment by sex, age, WC, HOMA IR and Framingham or SCORE risks. This relationship was not found for CRP circulating levels neither leptin levels. MHO prevalence is highly dependent on the definition criteria used to define those individuals. Results showed that MHO subjects had less WC, and a lower estimated CV-risk than MUHO subjects. Additionally, the high adiponectin circulating levels in MHO may suggest a protective role against developing an unhealthy

Profile of individuals who are metabolically healthy obese using different definition criteria. A population-based analysis in the Spanish population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Teresa Martínez-Larrad

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with numerous metabolic complications such as diabetes mellitus type 2, dyslipidemia, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and several forms of cancer. Our goal was to compare different criteria to define the metabolically healthy obese (MHO with metabolically unhealthy obese (MUHO subjects. We applied Wildman (W, Wildman modified (WM with insulin resistance (IR with cut-off point ≥ 3.8 and levels of C- Reactive Protein (CRP ≥ 3 mg/l; and Consensus Societies (CS criteria. In these subjects cardiovascular-risk (CV-risk was estimated by Framingham score and SCORE for MHO and MUHO. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Spanish Caucasian adults. A total of 3,844 subjects completed the study, 45% males, aged 35-74 years. Anthropometric/biochemical variables were measured. Obesity was defined as BMI: ≥ 30 Kg/m(2. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of obesity in our population was 27.5%, (23.7%/males and 30.2%/females. MHO prevalence according to W, WM, and CS definition criteria were: 9.65%, 16.29%, 39.94% respectively in obese participants. MHO has lower waist circumference (WC measurements than MUHO. The estimated CV-risks by Framingham and SCORE Project charts were lower in MHO than MUHO subjects. WC showed high specificity and sensitivity in detecting high estimated CV risk by Framingham. However, WHR showed high specificity and sensitivity in detecting CV risk according to SCORE Project. MHO subjects as defined by any of the three criteria had higher adiponectin levels after adjustment by sex, age, WC, HOMA IR and Framingham or SCORE risks. This relationship was not found for CRP circulating levels neither leptin levels. CONCLUSIONS: MHO prevalence is highly dependent on the definition criteria used to define those individuals. Results showed that MHO subjects had less WC, and a lower estimated CV-risk than MUHO subjects. Additionally, the high adiponectin circulating levels in MHO may suggest a

Risk stratification in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Risk scores, biomarkers and clinical judgment

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David Corcoran

2015-09-01

Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom, in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment.

The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30 824 Europeans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G

2015-01-01

.8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40-65; n = 30,824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve...... with SCORE, but deteriorated risk classification based on NRI. Future guidelines should consider lower decision thresholds and prioritize CVD morbidity and people above age 65....

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts.

Science.gov (United States)

de Las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine; Mahabadi, Amir Abbas; Koenig, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994-1995) and S4 (1999-2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000-2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany.

Coronary Artery Calcium as an Independent Surrogate Marker in the Risk Assessment of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and an Intermediate Pretest Likelihood for Coronary Artery Disease Admitted to a German Chest Pain Unit.

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Breuckmann, Frank; Olligs, Jan; Hinrichs, Liane; Koopmann, Matthias; Lichtenberg, Michael; Böse, Dirk; Fischer, Dieter; Eckardt, Lars; Waltenberger, Johannes; Garvey, J Lee

2016-03-01

About 10% of patients admitted to a chest pain unit (CPU) exhibit atrial fibrillation (AF). To determine whether calcium scores (CS) are superior over common risk scores for coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients presenting with atypical chest pain, newly diagnosed AF, and intermediate pretest probability for CAD within the CPU. In 73 subjects, CS was related to the following risk scores: Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score, including a new model of a frequency-normalized approach; Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction score; European Society of Cardiology Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE); Framingham risk score; and Prospective Cardiovascular Münster Study score. Revascularization rates during index stay were assessed. Median CS was 77 (interquartile range, 1-270), with higher values in men and the left anterior descending artery. Only the modified GRACE (ρ = 0.27; P = 0.02) and the SCORE (ρ = 0.39; P risk scores and calcium burden, as well as revascularization rates during index stay, were low. By contrast, the determination of CS may be used as an additional surrogate marker in risk stratification in AF patients with intermediate pretest likelihood for CAD admitted to a CPU. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding.

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Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C

2017-07-01

Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community.

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Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L

2002-10-29

Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

Recreational physical activity as an independent predictor of multivariable cardiovascular disease risk.

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Satvinder S Dhaliwal

Full Text Available The role of physical activity in preventing CVD has been highlighted by Professor Jerry Morris in the 1950's. We report outcome of a 15-year prospective study with the aim to identify whether physical activity showed cardiovascular benefit independent of common risk factors and of central obesity. Baseline data of 8662 subjects, with no previous history of heart disease, diabetes or stroke, were obtained from an age- and gender- stratified sample of adults in Australian capital cities and were linked with the National Death Index to determine the causes of death of 610 subjects who had died to 31 December 2004. The study consisted of 4175 males (age 42.3 ± 13.1 years and 4487 females (age 42.8 ± 13.2 years. Fasting serum lipid levels, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and smoking habits at baseline were recorded. The Framingham Risk Scores of 15-year mortality due to CHD and CVD were calculated using established equations. Subjects were also asked if they engaged in vigorous exercise, less vigorous exercise or walk for recreation and exercise in the past 2 weeks. Subjects in the high recreational physical activity category were 0.16 (0.06-0.43; p<0.001 and 0.12 (0.03-0.48; p = 0.003 times as likely as subjects in the low category for CVD and CHD mortality respectively. After adjusting for both the Framingham Risk Score and central obesity (Waist circumference to Hip circumference Ratio, those in the high recreational physical activity group were 0.35 (0.13-0.98 times less likely compared to the low category for CVD mortality. Recreational physical activity independently predicted reduced cardiovascular mortality over fifteen years. A public health focus on increased physical activity and preventing obesity is required to reduce the risk of CVD and CHD.

Association of Inter-Arm Systolic Blood Pressure Difference with Coronary Atherosclerotic Disease Burden Using Calcium Scoring.

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Her, Ae Young; Cho, Kyoung Im; Garg, Scot; Kim, Yong Hoon; Shin, Eun Seok

2017-09-01

There are no sufficient data on the correlation between inter-arm blood pressure (BP) difference and coronary atherosclerosis found using coronary artery calcium score (CACS). We aimed to investigate if the increased difference in inter-arm BP is independently associated with severity of CACS. Patients who had ≥3 cardiovascular risk factors or an intermediate Framingham Risk Score (FRS; ≥10) were enrolled. Inter-arm BP difference was defined as the absolute difference in BP in both arms. Quantitative CACS was measured by using coronary computed tomography angiography with the scoring system. A total of 261 patients were included in this study. Age (r=0.256, parm systolic BP (SBP; r=0.172, p=0.005), mean of left arm SBP (r=0.190, p=0.002), inter-arm SBP difference (r=0.152, p=0.014), and the FRS (r=0.278, parm SBP difference (≥6 mm Hg) was significantly associated with CACS ≥300 [odds ratio (OR) 2.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-4.22; p=0.022]. In multivariable analysis, the inter-arm SBP difference ≥6 mm Hg was also significantly associated with CACS ≥300 after adjusting for clinical risk factors (OR 2.34, 95 % CI 1.06-5.19; p=0.036). An increased inter-arm SBP difference (≥6 mm Hg) is associated with coronary atherosclerotic disease burden using CACS, and provides additional information for predicting severe coronary calcification, compared to models based on traditional risk factors. © Copyright: Yonsei University College of Medicine 2017

Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding

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Ngu, JH; Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Chin, YK

2017-01-01

Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study.......Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study....

A scoring system for ascertainment of incident stroke; the Risk Index Score (RISc).

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Kass-Hout, T A; Moyé, L A; Smith, M A; Morgenstern, L B

2006-01-01

The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm that could be translated into a simple scoring system in order to ascertain incident stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data. The Risk Index Score (RISc) algorithm was developed using data collected prospectively by the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) project, 2000. The validity of RISc was evaluated by estimating the concordance of scoring system stroke ascertainment to stroke ascertainment by physician and/or abstractor review of hospital admission records. RISc was developed on 1718 randomly selected patients (training set) and then statistically validated on an independent sample of 858 patients (validation set). A multivariable logistic model was used to develop RISc and subsequently evaluated by goodness-of-fit and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. The higher the value of RISc, the higher the patient's risk of potential stroke. The study showed RISc was well calibrated and discriminated those who had potential stroke from those that did not on initial screening. In this study we developed and validated a rapid, easy, efficient, and accurate method to ascertain incident stroke cases from routine hospital admission records for epidemiologic investigations. Validation of this scoring system was achieved statistically; however, clinical validation in a community hospital setting is warranted.

Consumption of Sugars, Sugary Foods and Sugary Beverages in Relation to Adiposity-Related Cancer Risk in the Framingham Offspring Cohort (1991-2013).

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Makarem, Nour; Bandera, Elisa V; Lin, Yong; Jacques, Paul; Hayes, Richard B; Parekh, Niyati

2018-04-19

Higher sugar consumption may increase cancer risk by promoting insulin-glucose dysregulation, oxidative stress, hormonal imbalances, and excess adiposity. This prospective study investigates the association between dietary sugars(fructose and sucrose) and sugary foods and beverages in relation to combined and site-specific (breast, prostate, colorectal) adiposity-associated cancers. The analytic sample consisted of 3,184 adults, aged 26-84y, from the Framingham Offspring cohort. Diet data was first collected between 1991-1995 using a food frequency questionnaire. Intakes of fructose, sucrose, sugary foods and sugary beverages (fruit juice and sugar-sweetened beverages) were derived. Participants were followed up until 2013 to ascertain cancer incidence; 565 doctor-diagnosed adiposity-related cancers, including 124 breast, 157 prostate and 68 colorectal cancers occurred. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations. Tests for interaction with BMI and waist circumference were conducted. No associations were observed between fructose, sucrose, sugary food consumption and combined incidence of adiposity-related cancers or the examined site-specific cancers. While total consumption of sugary beverages was not associated with site-specific cancer risk, higher intakes of fruit juice were associated with 58% increased prostate cancer risk(HR:1.58;95%CI:1.04-2.41) in multivariable-adjusted models. In exploratory stratified analyses, higher sugary beverage intakes increased overall adiposity-related cancer risk by 59% in participants with excessive central adiposity(HR:1.59;95%CI:1.01-2.50)(p-trend=0.057). In this cohort of American adults, higher sugary beverage consumption was associated with increased cancer risk among participants with central adiposity. These analyses suggest that avoiding sugary beverages represents a simple dietary modification that may be used as an effective cancer control strategy. Copyright ©2018

Biomarkers for insulin resistance and inflammation and the risk for all-cause dementia and alzheimer disease: results from the Framingham Heart Study.

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van Himbergen, Thomas M; Beiser, Alexa S; Ai, Masumi; Seshadri, Sudha; Otokozawa, Seiko; Au, Rhoda; Thongtang, Nuntakorn; Wolf, Philip A; Schaefer, Ernst J

2012-05-01

To investigate the contribution of biomarkers of glucose homeostasis (adiponectin, glucose, glycated albumin, and insulin levels) and inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) levels) to the risk of developing Alzheimer disease (AD) and all-cause dementia. Prospective cohort study. Dementia-free Framingham Heart Study participants had sera measured for these biomarkers at the 19th biennial examination (1985-1988) and were followed up prospectively for the development of AD and all-cause dementia. Eight hundred forty (541 women, median age of 76 years) subjects participated in the study. We used sex-pooled and sex-specific multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, education, body mass index, recent change in weight, APOE ε4 allele status, and plasma docosahexaenoic acid levels to determine association of these biomarkers with the development of all-cause dementia and AD. Over a mean follow-up period of 13 years, 159 persons developed dementia (including 125 with AD). After adjustment for other risk factors, only adiponectin in women was associated with an increased risk of all-cause dementia (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.66; P=.054) and AD (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.00-1.76; P=.050) per 1-SD increase in adiponectin level. Women with baseline adiponectin values more than the median had a higher risk of all-cause dementia (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.03-2.56; P=.04) and AD (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.13-3.10; P=.01) as compared with those with values less than the median. In women, increased plasma adiponectin levels are an independent risk factor for the development of both all-cause dementia and AD.

A risk score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

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Marta Guasch-Ferré

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample. Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample. The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC, German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC. RESULTS: The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%, and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. DISCUSSION: We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire.

Melanoma risk prediction using a multilocus genetic risk score in the Women's Health Initiative cohort.

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Cho, Hyunje G; Ransohoff, Katherine J; Yang, Lingyao; Hedlin, Haley; Assimes, Themistocles; Han, Jiali; Stefanick, Marcia; Tang, Jean Y; Sarin, Kavita Y

2018-07-01

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with melanoma have been identified though genome-wide association studies. However, the combined impact of these SNPs on melanoma development remains unclear, particularly in postmenopausal women who carry a lower melanoma risk. We examine the contribution of a combined polygenic risk score on melanoma development in postmenopausal women. Genetic risk scores were calculated using 21 genome-wide association study-significant SNPs. Their combined effect on melanoma development was evaluated in 19,102 postmenopausal white women in the clinical trial and observational study arms of the Women's Health Initiative dataset. Compared to the tertile of weighted genetic risk score with the lowest genetic risk, the women in the tertile with the highest genetic risk were 1.9 times more likely to develop melanoma (95% confidence interval 1.50-2.42). The incremental change in c-index from adding genetic risk scores to age were 0.075 (95% confidence interval 0.041-0.109) for incident melanoma. Limitations include a lack of information on nevi count, Fitzpatrick skin type, family history of melanoma, and potential reporting and selection bias in the Women's Health Initiative cohort. Higher genetic risk is associated with increased melanoma prevalence and incidence in postmenopausal women, but current genetic information may have a limited role in risk prediction when phenotypic information is available. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint relative risks for estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer from a clinical model, polygenic risk score, and sex hormones.

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Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Ziv, Elad; Kerlikowske, Karla; Cummings, Steven R

2017-11-01

Models that predict the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers may improve our ability to target chemoprevention. We investigated the contributions of sex hormones to the discrimination of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model and a polygenic risk score comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted a nested case-control study of 110 women with ER-positive breast cancers and 214 matched controls within a mammography screening cohort. Participants were postmenopausal and not on hormonal therapy. The associations of estradiol, estrone, testosterone, and sex hormone binding globulin with ER-positive breast cancer were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. We assessed the individual and combined discrimination of estradiol, the BCSC risk score, and polygenic risk score using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Of the sex hormones assessed, estradiol (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.64-8.06 for top vs bottom quartile), and to a lesser degree estrone, was most strongly associated with ER-positive breast cancer in unadjusted analysis. The BCSC risk score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00-1.75 per 1% increase) and polygenic risk score (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36 per standard deviation) were also associated with ER-positive cancers. A model containing the BCSC risk score, polygenic risk score, and estradiol levels showed good discrimination for ER-positive cancers (AUROC 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.79), representing a significant improvement over the BCSC risk score (AUROC 0.58, 95% CI 0.50-0.65). Adding estradiol and a polygenic risk score to a clinical risk model improves discrimination for postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancers.

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

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Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

'Mechanical restraint-confounders, risk, alliance score'

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Deichmann Nielsen, Lea; Bech, Per; Hounsgaard, Lise

2017-01-01

. AIM: To clinically validate a new, structured short-term risk assessment instrument called the Mechanical Restraint-Confounders, Risk, Alliance Score (MR-CRAS), with the intended purpose of supporting the clinicians' observation and assessment of the patient's readiness to be released from mechanical...... restraint. METHODS: The content and layout of MR-CRAS and its user manual were evaluated using face validation by forensic mental health clinicians, content validation by an expert panel, and pilot testing within two, closed forensic mental health inpatient units. RESULTS: The three sub-scales (Confounders......, Risk, and a parameter of Alliance) showed excellent content validity. The clinical validations also showed that MR-CRAS was perceived and experienced as a comprehensible, relevant, comprehensive, and useable risk assessment instrument. CONCLUSIONS: MR-CRAS contains 18 clinically valid items...

Clinical associations of total kidney volume: the Framingham Heart Study.

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Roseman, Daniel A; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Oyama-Manabe, Noriko; Chuang, Michael L; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Manning, Warren J; Fox, Caroline S

2017-08-01

Total kidney volume (TKV) is an imaging biomarker that may have diagnostic and prognostic utility. The relationships between kidney volume, renal function and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have not been characterized in a large community-dwelling population. This information is needed to advance the clinical application of TKV. We measured TKV in 1852 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age 64.1 ± 9.2 years, 53% women) using magnetic resonance imaging. A healthy sample was used to define reference values. The associations between TKV, renal function and CVD risk factors were determined using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Overall, mean TKV was 278 ± 54 cm3 for women and 365 ± 66 cm3 for men. Risk factors for high TKV (>90% healthy referent size) were body surface area (BSA), diabetes, smoking and albuminuria, while age, female and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) kidney damage including albuminuria and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, while high TKV is associated with diabetes and decreased odds of eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Prospective studies are needed to characterize the natural progression and clinical consequences of TKV. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

A novel ultrasound-based vascular calcification score (CALCS) to detect subclinical atherosclerosis.

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Flore, R; Zocco, M A; Ainora, M E; Fonnesu, C; Nesci, A; Gasbarrini, A; Ponziani, F R

2018-02-01

To quantify non-coronary vascular calcifications (VC) in asymptomatic patients at low-intermediate cardiovascular risk by a new color Doppler ultrasound (DUS)-based score (the carotid, aortic, lower limbs calcium score, CALCs), and to correlate this score with classical parameters associated with cardiovascular risk [carotid intima media thickness (IMT), and arterial stiffness (AS)]. All consecutive asymptomatic patients who underwent a screening DUS of non-coronary circulation were evaluated and patients at low-intermediate cardiovascular risk were selected according to Framingham risk score (FRS). Among them, we enrolled 70 patients with US evidence of VC and 71 age, sex and FRS matched controls. The presence of VC was correlated with classical markers of cardiovascular risk, such as AS and intima-media thickness (IMT). AS, expressed as pulse wave velocity (PWV) and arterial distensibility, carotid IMT and CALCs were measured for both groups. AS and c-IMT were assessed by a new Radio-Frequency (RF) DUS-based method. CALCs was generated by our previously described B-mode DUS-based method according to number/size of VC in 11 non-coronary segments (range 0-33). Patients with VC presented higher AS and IMT values than controls (PWV 8.34±0.98 m/s vs. 6.74±0.68 m/s, p<0.0001; arterial distensibility 267±12 mm vs. 315±65 mm, p=0.001; IMT 687±132 mm vs. 572±91 mm, p<0.0001). Mean CALCs of patients with VC was 8.41±7.78. CALCs were significantly correlated with c-IMT (p<0.0001; r=0.3), PWV (p<0.0001; r=0.4) and arterial distensibility (p=0.002; r=-0.1). DUS-based CALCs is highly correlated with other validated markers of subclinical atherosclerosis, such as c-IMT and AS. Our results demonstrated the ability of CALCs to identify individual predictive factors beyond the traditional risk factors by quantifying an interesting and novel step of the atherogenic process. Future studies on larger series and with adequate follow up are necessary to confirm these results and

Quantifying the impact of using Coronary Artery Calcium Score for risk categorization instead of Framingham Score or European Heart SCORE in lipid lowering algorithms in a Middle Eastern population

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Hussain A. Isma’eel

2015-10-01

Conclusion: In this simulation, using CACS for risk categorization warrants lipid lowering treatment for 5–6% and spares 70–80% from treatment in accordance with the guidelines. Current strong evidence from double randomized clinical trials is in support of guideline recommendations. Our results call for a prospective trial to explore the benefits/risks of a CACS-based approach before any recommendations can be made.

Quantifying Cardiometabolic Risk Using Modifiable Non–Self-Reported Risk Factors

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Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Berkman, Lisa F.; Buxton, Orfeu M.

2014-01-01

Background Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. Purpose To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non–self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut off points for risk categories. Methods We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14–year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender–specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non–self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high–density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10–year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012–2013. Results HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit χ2=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). Conclusions This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk based on modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual’s commitment to prevention and intervention. PMID:24951039

Quantifying cardiometabolic risk using modifiable non-self-reported risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Berkman, Lisa F; Buxton, Orfeu M

2014-08-01

Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non-self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut-off points for risk categories. We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14-year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender-specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non-self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10-year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012-2013. HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit chi-square=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk on the basis of modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual's commitment to prevention and intervention. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long working hours may increase risk of coronary heart disease.

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Kang, Mo-Yeol; Cho, Soo-Hun; Yoo, Min-Sang; Kim, Taeshik; Hong, Yun-Chul

2014-11-01

To evaluate the association between long working hours and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) estimated by Framingham risk score (FRS) in Korean adults. This study evaluated adult participants in Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey IV (2007-2009). After inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied, the final sample size for this study model was 8,350. Subjects were asked about working hours and health status. Participants also completed physical examinations and biochemical measurement necessary for estimation of FRS. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to investigate the association between working hours and 10-year risk for CHD estimated by FRS. Compared to those who work 31-40 hr, significantly higher 10-year risk was estimated among subjects working longer hours. As working hours increased, odds ratio (OR) for upper 10 percent of estimated 10-year risk for CHD was increased up to 1.94. Long working hours are significantly related to risk of coronary heart disease. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

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Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; pbleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

Recurrent Stroke: The Value of the CHA2DS2VASc Score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score in a Nationwide Stroke Cohort.

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Andersen, Søren Due; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Lip, Gregory Y H; Bach, Flemming W; Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard

2015-09-01

The CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score are respectively used for risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation and in patients with cerebrovascular incidents. We aimed to test the ability of the 2 scores to predict stroke recurrence, death, and cardiovascular events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or arterial thromboembolism) in a nationwide Danish cohort study, among patients with incident ischemic stroke and no atrial fibrillation. We conducted a registry-based study in patients with incident ischemic stroke and no atrial fibrillation. Patients were stratified according to the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score and were followed up until stroke recurrence or death. We estimated stratified incidence rates and hazard ratios and calculated the cumulative risks. 42 182 patients with incident ischemic stroke with median age 70.1 years were included. The overall 1-year incidence rates of recurrent stroke, death, and cardiovascular events were 3.6%, 10.5%, and 6.7%, respectively. The incidence rates, the hazard ratios, and the cumulative risk of all outcomes increased with increasing risk scores. C-statistics for both risk scores were around 0.55 for 1-year stroke recurrence and cardiovascular events and correspondingly for death around 0.67 for both scores. In this cohort of non-atrial fibrillation patients with incident ischemic stroke, increasing CHA2DS2VASc score and Essen Stroke Risk Score was associated with increasing risk of recurrent stroke, death, and cardiovascular events. Their discriminatory performance was modest and further refinements are required for clinical application. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys.

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Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta

2015-09-15

In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polygenic risk scores for smoking: predictors for alcohol and cannabis use?

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Vink, J.M.; de Geus, E.J.C.; Willemsen, G.; Neale, M.C.; Furberg, H.; Boomsma, D.I.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims: A strong correlation exists between smoking and the use of alcohol and cannabis. This paper uses polygenic risk scores to explore the possibility of overlapping genetic factors. Those scores reflect a combined effect of selected risk alleles for smoking. Methods: Summary-level

Carotid flow velocity/diameter ratio is a predictor of cardiovascular events in hypertensive patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bellinazzi, Vera R; Cipolli, José A; Pimenta, Marcio V

2015-01-01

AD) greater than the median value presented the worst clinical outcome compared to those with isolated sFV less than the median value or sAD greater than the median value, suggesting an additive effect of these two variables. Further, Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated worse outcome for individuals with s...... intima-media thickness and clinically defined high cardiovascular risk did not. Furthermore, area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for sFV/sAD was higher than that for Framingham risk score (0.77 versus 0.64; P = 0.045), whereas adding sFV/sAD to the Framingham risk factors resulted...

Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population.

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Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R

2018-01-01

A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of the Rockall risk scoring system in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vreeburg, E. M.; Terwee, C. B.; Snel, P.; Rauws, E. A.; Bartelsman, J. F.; Meulen, J. H.; Tytgat, G. N.

1999-01-01

Several scoring systems have been developed to predict the risk of rebleeding or death in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). These risk scoring systems have not been validated in a new patient population outside the clinical context of the original study. To assess internal and

Skin autofluorescence as proxy of tissue AGE accumulation is dissociated from SCORE cardiovascular risk score, and remains so after 3 years.

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Tiessen, Ans H; Jager, Willemein; ter Bogt, Nancy C W; Beltman, Frank W; van der Meer, Klaas; Broer, Jan; Smit, Andries J

2014-01-01

Skin autofluorescence (SAF), as a proxy of AGE accumulation, is predictive of cardiovascular (CVD) complications in i.a. type 2 diabetes mellitus and renal failure, independently of most conventional CVD risk factors. The present exploratory substudy of the Groningen Overweight and Lifestyle (GOAL)-project addresses whether SAF is related to Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk estimation (% 10-year CVD-mortality risk) in overweight/obese persons in primary care, without diabetes/renal disease, and if after 3-year treatment of risk factors (change in, Δ) SAF is related to ΔSCORE. In a sample of 65 participants from the GOAL study, with a body mass index (BMI) >25-40 kg/m2, hypertension and/or dyslipidemia, but without diabetes/renal disease, SAF and CVD risk factors were measured at baseline, and after 3 years of lifestyle and pharmaceutical treatment. At baseline, the mean SCORE risk estimation was 3.1±2.6%, mean SAF 2.04±0.5AU. In multivariate analysis SAF was strongly related to age, but not to other risk factors/SCORE. After 3 years ΔSAF was 0.34±0.45 AU (phistory of CVD compared to 54 persons without CVD (p=0.002). Baseline and 3-year-Δ SAF are not related to (Δ)SCORE, or its components, except age, in the studied population. ΔSAF was negatively related to Δweight. As 3-year SAF was higher in persons with CVD, these results support a larger study on SAF to assess its contribution to conventional risk factors/SCORE in predicting CVD in overweight persons with low-intermediate cardiovascular risk.

Dietary patterns and the metabolic syndrome in obese and non-obese Framingham women.

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Sonnenberg, Lillian; Pencina, Michael; Kimokoti, Ruth; Quatromoni, Paula; Nam, Byung-Ho; D'Agostino, Ralph; Meigs, James B; Ordovas, Jose; Cobain, Mark; Millen, Barbara

2005-01-01

To examine the relationship between habitual dietary patterns and the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in women and to identify foci for preventive nutrition interventions. Dietary patterns, nutrient intake, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and MetS risk factors were characterized in 1615 Framingham Offspring-Spouse Study (FOS) women. Dietary pattern subgroups were compared for MetS prevalence and CVD risk factor status using logistic regression and analysis of covariance. Analyses were performed overall in women and stratified on obesity status; multivariate models controlled for age, apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotypes, and CVD risk factors. Food and nutrient profiles and overall nutritional risk of five non-overlapping habitual dietary patterns of women were identified including Heart Healthier, Lighter Eating, Wine and Moderate Eating, Higher Fat, and Empty Calories. Rates of hypertension and low high-density lipoprotein levels were high in non-obese women, but individual MetS risk factor levels were substantially increased in obese women. Overall MetS risk varied by dietary pattern and obesity status, independently of APOE and CVD risk factors. Compared with obese or non-obese women and women overall with other dietary patterns, MetS was highest in those with the Empty Calorie pattern (contrast p value: p<0.05). This research shows the independent relationship between habitual dietary patterns and MetS risk in FOS women and the influence of obesity status. High overall MetS risk and the varying prevalence of individual MetS risk factors in female subgroups emphasize the importance of preventive nutrition interventions and suggest potential benefits of targeted behavior change in both obese and non-obese women by dietary pattern.

Validity Assessment of Low-risk SCORE Function and SCORE Function Calibrated to the Spanish Population in the FRESCO Cohorts.

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Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafael; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Elosua, Roberto; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibáñez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo-Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Lapetra, José; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González-Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guillem; Gavrila, Diana; Ardanaz, Eva; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manel; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; Dégano, Irene R; Francès, Albert; Castell, Conxa; Grau, María; Marrugat, Jaume

2018-04-01

To assess the validity of the original low-risk SCORE function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and SCORE calibrated to the Spanish population. Pooled analysis with individual data from 12 Spanish population-based cohort studies. We included 30 919 individuals aged 40 to 64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline, who were followed up for 10 years for the causes of death included in the SCORE project. The validity of the risk functions was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve (discrimination) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (calibration), respectively. Follow-up comprised 286 105 persons/y. Ten-year cardiovascular mortality was 0.6%. The ratio between estimated/observed cases ranged from 9.1, 6.5, and 9.1 in men and 3.3, 1.3, and 1.9 in women with original low-risk SCORE risk function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and calibrated SCORE, respectively; differences were statistically significant with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test between predicted and observed mortality with SCORE (P cardiovascular mortality observed in the Spanish population. Despite the acceptable discrimination capacity, prediction of the number of fatal cardiovascular events (calibration) was significantly inaccurate. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

A risk prediction score for invasive mold disease in patients with hematological malignancies.

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Marta Stanzani

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008 to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. RESULTS: Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of 5% of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99. During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001. CONCLUSION: An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate "screening-out" of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis.

Nut Consumption and Cardiovascular Risk in Older Chinese: The Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yangbo Sun

Full Text Available In Western contexts nut consumption is associated with better health. We examined the associations of nut consumption with cardiovascular disease risk in the non-Western setting of Southern China.In the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study we used multivariable linear regression to examine the associations of baseline nut (mainly peanuts consumption (none (n = 6688, <3 portions/week (n = 2596 and ≥3 portions/week (n = 2444 with follow-up assessment of Framingham cardiovascular disease score (excluding smoking and its components in older Chinese (≥50 years (follow-up 57.8%.Nut consumption was not associated with Framingham score (≥3 portions/week compared to none: 0.02 95% confidence interval (CI -0.11 to 0.15, systolic blood pressure (-0.66 mmHg 95% CI -1.94, 0.62, diastolic blood pressure (-0.69 mmHg 95% CI -1.44, 0.07, HDL-cholesterol (-0.01 mmol/L 95% CI -0.02, 0.005, LDL-cholesterol (-0.01 mmol/L 95% CI -0.05, 0.02 or fasting glucose (0.04 mmol/L 95% CI -0.02, 0.09, adjusted for baseline values, energy intake, age, sex, phase of recruitment, socio-economic position, lifestyle and baseline health status.Observations concerning the benefits of nut consumption may be contextually specific, perhaps depending on the type of nut consumed.

Risk-adjusted scoring systems in colorectal surgery.

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Leung, Edmund; McArdle, Kirsten; Wong, Ling S

2011-01-01

Consequent to recent advances in surgical techniques and management, survival rate has increased substantially over the last 25 years, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. However, post-operative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer vary widely across the country. Therefore, standardised outcome measures are emphasised not only for professional accountability, but also for comparison between treatment units and regions. In a heterogeneous population, the use of crude mortality as an outcome measure for patients undergoing surgery is simply misleading. Meaningful comparisons, however, require accurate risk stratification of patients being analysed before conclusions can be reached regarding the outcomes recorded. Sub-specialised colorectal surgical units usually dedicated to more complex and high-risk operations. The need for accurate risk prediction is necessary in these units as both mortality and morbidity often are tools to justify the practice of high-risk surgery. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a system for classifying patients in the intensive care unit. However, APACHE score was considered too complex for general surgical use. The American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade has been considered useful as an adjunct to informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time. ASA grade is simple but too subjective. The Physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its variant Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) were devised to predict outcomes in surgical patients in general, taking into account of the variables in the case-mix. POSSUM has two parts, which include assessment of physiological parameters and operative scores. There are 12 physiological parameters and 6 operative measures. The physiological parameters are taken at the time of surgery. Each physiological parameter or operative variable is sub-divided into three or four levels with

Relationships of different types of event to cardiovascular death in trials of antihypertensive treatment: an aid to definition of total cardiovascular disease risk in hypertension.

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Zambon, Antonella; Arfè, Andrea; Corrao, Giovanni; Zanchetti, Alberto

2014-03-01

Guidelines for management of cardiovascular diseases stratify absolute cardiovascular risk into categories with a high-risk threshold defined at a 20% cardiovascular events risk in 10 years, but it is unclear whether only major events or the Framingham-extended definition should be considered. The 2013 ESH-ESC hypertension guidelines, instead, define cardiovascular risk as a risk of cardiovascular death in 10 years, as in the SCORE model, setting the threshold for high risk at the 5% level. It would be therefore convenient to know the quantitative relationship between the risks of the different outcomes adopted by the different guidelines, especially because some outcome definitions include serious nonfatal cardiovascular events relevant in cardiovascular prevention. We have therefore analysed these relationships in trials of antihypertensive therapy as an aid to defining total cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients. Sixty-one trials were identified, and 51 retained for analysis of the relationship of cardiovascular death to the incidence of all-cause death, major cardiovascular events and inclusive (Framingham) cardiovascular events. The relationship between cardiovascular death rates and each type of event rates was explored by fitting flexible regression models. The included trials provided 15164 cardiovascular deaths and 1674427 patient-years. The relation of each event rate to cardiovascular death rate was best explained by a model considering the logarithm of each event rate as a dependent variable and the logarithm of cardiovascular death rate as a predictor. Mean patients' age and treatment were also predictors, but to a minor extent. The increase of the incidence rates of all types of events was less steep the higher the CV death rate: the rate ratios of all-cause death to cardiovascular death were 2.2, 1.9 and 1.8 at low-moderate (cardiovascular death hypertensive patients whose cardiovascular death risk is calculated by the SCORE model.

Improvement of Risk Prediction After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement by Combining Frailty With Conventional Risk Scores.

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Schoenenberger, Andreas W; Moser, André; Bertschi, Dominic; Wenaweser, Peter; Windecker, Stephan; Carrel, Thierry; Stuck, Andreas E; Stortecky, Stefan

2018-02-26

This study sought to evaluate whether frailty improves mortality prediction in combination with the conventional scores. European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) or Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score have not been evaluated in combined models with frailty for mortality prediction after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). This prospective cohort comprised 330 consecutive TAVR patients ≥70 years of age. Conventional scores and a frailty index (based on assessment of cognition, mobility, nutrition, and activities of daily living) were evaluated to predict 1-year all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression (providing hazard ratios [HRs] with confidence intervals [CIs]) and measures of test performance (providing likelihood ratio [LR] chi-square test statistic and C-statistic [CS]). All risk scores were predictive of the outcome (EuroSCORE, HR: 1.90 [95% CI: 1.45 to 2.48], LR chi-square test statistic 19.29, C-statistic 0.67; STS score, HR: 1.51 [95% CI: 1.21 to 1.88], LR chi-square test statistic 11.05, C-statistic 0.64; frailty index, HR: 3.29 [95% CI: 1.98 to 5.47], LR chi-square test statistic 22.28, C-statistic 0.66). A combination of the frailty index with either EuroSCORE (LR chi-square test statistic 38.27, C-statistic 0.72) or STS score (LR chi-square test statistic 28.71, C-statistic 0.68) improved mortality prediction. The frailty index accounted for 58.2% and 77.6% of the predictive information in the combined model with EuroSCORE and STS score, respectively. Net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement confirmed that the added frailty index improved risk prediction. This is the first study showing that the assessment of frailty significantly enhances prediction of 1-year mortality after TAVR in combined risk models with conventional risk scores and relevantly contributes to this improvement. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation

Pneumonia Risk Stratification Scores for Children in Low-Resource Settings: A Systematic Literature Review.

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Deardorff, Katrina V; McCollum, Eric D; Ginsburg, Amy Sarah

2017-12-22

Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of death among children less than five years of age. Predictive tools, commonly referred to as risk scores, can be employed to identify high-risk children early for targeted management to prevent adverse outcomes. This systematic review was conducted to identify pediatric pneumonia risk scores developed, validated, and implemented in low-resource settings. We searched CAB Direct, Cochrane Reviews, Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for studies that developed formal risk scores to predict treatment failure or mortality among children less than five years of age diagnosed with a respiratory infection or pneumonia in low-resource settings. Data abstracted from articles included location and study design, sample size, age, diagnosis, score features and model discrimination. Three pediatric pneumonia risk scores predicted mortality specifically, and two treatment failure. Scores developed using World Health Organization recommended variables for pneumonia assessment demonstrated better predictive fit than scores developed using alternative features. Scores developed using routinely collected healthcare data performed similarly well as those developed using clinical trial data. No score has been implemented in low-resource settings. While pediatric pneumonia-specific risk scores have been developed and validated, it is yet unclear if implementation is feasible, what impact, if any, implemented scores may have on child outcomes, or how broadly scores may be generalized. To increase the feasibility of implementation, future research should focus on developing scores based on routinely collected data.

Systemic inflammation and COPD: the Framingham Heart Study.

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Walter, Robert E; Wilk, Jemma B; Larson, Martin G; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Keaney, John F; Lipinska, Izabella; O'Connor, George T; Benjamin, Emelia J

2008-01-01

The current paradigm for the pathogenesis of COPD includes an ultimately maladaptive local inflammatory response to environmental stimuli. We examined the hypothesis that systemic inflammatory biomarkers are associated with impaired lung function, particularly among those with extensive cigarette smoking. Using data from the Framingham Heart Study, we examined cross-sectional associations of systemic inflammatory biomarkers (CD40 ligand [CD40L], intercellular adhesion molecule [ICAM]-1, interleukin [IL]-6, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, P-selectin, and myeloperoxidase, in addition to C-reactive protein) to impaired lung function. IL-6 was consistently associated with impaired lung function; a 1-SD higher concentration of IL-6 was associated with a 41-mL lower FEV(1) (95% confidence interval [CI], - 61 to - 20) and a borderline 15% higher odds of COPD (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.99 to 1.34). Additionally, P-selectin was associated with lower FEV(1) levels; after adjusting for the other biomarkers, a 1-SD higher concentration of P-selectin predicted an FEV(1) that was on average 19 mL lower (95% CI, - 37 to 0). Including the biomarkers individually as sole exposures in the models generally strengthened the impaired lung function/biomarker association; the relations of ICAM-1 to FEV(1), and ICAM and CD40L to COPD became significant. The observed associations did not vary significantly with smoking history, except that the association between CD40L and COPD appeared greater in individuals with more extensive smoking histories. Among participants in the Framingham Heart Study, systemic inflammation was associated with lower levels of pulmonary function. Further research into the role of systemic inflammation in the development of pulmonary dysfunction is merited.

Association of mallampatti score as a risk factor for obstructive sleep apnea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naqvi, S.U.; Shahab, A.; Zia, S.; Adil, S.O.; Tariq, S.

2017-01-01

Objectives: To determine the association of Mallampatti Score as a risk factor for Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA). Methodology: This is a prospective questionnaire based survey included 103 individuals Results: Mean BMI of patients was 23.83+-6.03 kg/m2. There were 28 (27.2%) overweight and 22 (21.4%) obese patients. High risk on Berlin questionnaire was found in 12 (11.7%) patients. Both Berlin Questionnaire and Epworth questioner showed a negative association with Mallampati; the low risk group of these variables in our study with a p-value of 0.034 and 0.016 respectively i.e they are good for exclusion of OSA if found negative. Comparison of general characteristics with Mallampatti score and snoring showed significant association among patients with >25 years of age (p=0.02), low risk of Berlin score (p=0.034) and normal Epworth Sleep Score (p=0.016). Fifteen (14.5%) of overweight and obese individuals had higher Mallampatti score III and lV but the P-values were not significant (0.283 and 0.386). Conclusion: There is strong association between high Mallampatti score and O.S.A. Therefore we suggest that high mallampatti can be taken as a risk factor / screening tool limitation for O.S.A. (author)

Cardiovascular risk stratification in overweight or obese patients in primary prevention. Implications for use of statins.

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Masson, Walter; Lobo, Martín; Huerín, Melina; Molinero, Graciela; Manente, Diego; Pángaro, Mario; Vitagliano, Laura; Zylbersztejn, Horacio

2015-02-01

Cardiovascular risk estimation in patients with overweight/obesity is not standardized. Our objectives were to stratify cardiovascular risk using different scores, to analyze use of statins, to report the prevalence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP), and to determine the optimal cut-off point (OCP) of scores that discriminate between subjects with or without CAP. Non-diabetic patients with overweight or obesity in primary prevention were enrolled. The Framingham score (FS), the European score (ES), and the score proposed by the new American guidelines (NS) were calculated, and statin indication was evaluated. Prevalence of CAP was determined by ultrasound examination. A ROC analysis was performed. A total of 474 patients (67% with overweight and 33% obese) were enrolled into the study. The FS classified the largest number of subjects as low risk. PAC prevalence was higher in obese as compared to overweight subjects (44.8% vs. 36.1%, P=.04). According to the FS, ES, and NS respectively, 26.7%, 39.1%, and 39.1% of overweight subjects and 28.6%, 39.0%, and 39.0% of obese subjects had an absolute indication for statins. All three scores were shown to acceptably discriminate between subjects with and without CAP (area under the curve>0.7). The OCPs evaluated did not agree with the risk category values. Risk stratification and use of statins varied in the overweight/obese population depending on the function used. Understanding of the relationship between scores and presence of CAP may optimize risk estimate. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Commentary on "The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)": Army STARRS: a Framingham-like study of psychological health risk factors in soldiers.

Science.gov (United States)

Ressler, Kerry J; Schoomaker, Eric B

2014-01-01

Although historically the Army suicide rate has been significantly lower than the civilian rate, in 2004, the suicide and accidental death rates began trending upward. By 2008, the Army suicide rate had risen above the national average (20.2 per 100,000). In 2009, 160 active duty Soldiers took their lives, making suicide the third leading cause of death among the Army population. If accidental death, frequently the result of high-risk behavior, is included, then more Soldiers died by their own actions than in combat in 2009. The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) was thus created in 2009 to begin to address these problems. The Army STARRS project is a large consortium of seven different studies to develop data-driven methods for mitigating or preventing suicide behaviors and improving the overall mental health and behavioral functioning of Army Soldiers during and after their Army service. The first research articles from the Army STARRS project were published in late 2013 and early 2014. This work has already begun to outline important facets of risk in the military, and it is helping to drive an empirically derived approach to improvements in understanding mental disorders and risk behavior and to improve prevention and support of mental health and resilience. The Framingham Heart Study, started in the 1940s, marked a watershed event in utilizing large cross-sectional and prospective longitudinal collaborative research to identify and understand risk factors for cardiovascular disease. The Army STARRS project, through its collaborative, prospective, and robust innovative design and implementation, may provide the beginning of a similar scientific cohort in mental disorders. The work of this project will help understand biological and psychological aspects of military service, including those leading to suicide. When coupled with timely feedback to Army leadership, it permits near real-time steps to diagnose, mitigate, and

Risk factor profile for atherosclerosis among young adults in Israel--results of a large-scale survey from the young adult periodic examinations in Israel (YAPEIS) database.

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Sharabi, Y; Grotto, I; Huerta, M; Eldad, A; Green, M S

2001-01-01

Assessing the prevalence of relevant risk factors among young adults is a critical step in the process of preventing atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD) later in life. The Israel Defense Force Periodic Health Examination Center performs a routine check-up for subjects aged 25-45 years. Medical history, physical examination notes, laboratory results and ECG tracings are recorded, computerized and processed to form the Young Adults Periodic Examinations in Israel (YAPEIS) database. Data representing 31,640 subjects (27,769 males and 3871 females) examined between the years 1991-1999 were analyzed. The prevalence of documented risk factors for ASCVD were evaluated. The results of all parameters were graded categorically as low, moderate or high and the Framingham risk score was calculated. Fifty-one percent of the study participants were found to be overweight (body mass index > or = 25 kg/m2), 8.5% had high systolic blood pressure and 14.6% had high diastolic blood pressure. The prevalence of hypercholesterolemia and hyperglycemia was found to be 44.7 and 9.7%, respectively. Thirty-two percent of the subjects smoked cigarettes, and 76.7% reported not performing any routine physical activity. Furthermore, 31.8% had a Framingham score indicating a greater than 5% risk for developing a coronary event within the next 10 years. As expected, the prevalence of these risk factors increased with age and were found to be less frequent among females. Thus we conclude that many young Israeli adults hold significant risk factors for future ASCVD. Many of these risk factors are modifiable, and risk behavior is often amenable to alteration. Awareness to the high prevalence of risk factors among young adults should spark vigorous health-promotion programs as well as screening, education, and interventional measures aimed at altering the expected outcome of future ASCVD.

The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® score in subclinical hyperthyroidism

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Polovina Snežana

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® score is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and post-menopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Methods. The bone mineral density (by DXA, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH level, free thyroxine (fT4 level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and post-menopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 ± 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI 27.89 ± 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 ± 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 ± 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 ± 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 ± 4.58 years. The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX® score calculation was performed in both groups. Results. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX® score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 ± 1.58 vs 4.35 ± 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015. The FRAX® score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 ± 3.92 vs 0.50 ± 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022. There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (p > 0.05. The ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001 is presented by the area under the curve (AUC plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Conclusion. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX® scores and thus

Evidence for bivariate linkage of obesity and HDL-C levels in the Framingham Heart Study.

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Arya, Rector; Lehman, Donna; Hunt, Kelly J; Schneider, Jennifer; Almasy, Laura; Blangero, John; Stern, Michael P; Duggirala, Ravindranath

2003-12-31

Epidemiological studies have indicated that obesity and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels are strong cardiovascular risk factors, and that these traits are inversely correlated. Despite the belief that these traits are correlated in part due to pleiotropy, knowledge on specific genes commonly affecting obesity and dyslipidemia is very limited. To address this issue, we first conducted univariate multipoint linkage analysis for body mass index (BMI) and HDL-C to identify loci influencing variation in these phenotypes using Framingham Heart Study data relating to 1702 subjects distributed across 330 pedigrees. Subsequently, we performed bivariate multipoint linkage analysis to detect common loci influencing covariation between these two traits. We scanned the genome and identified a major locus near marker D6S1009 influencing variation in BMI (LOD = 3.9) using the program SOLAR. We also identified a major locus for HDL-C near marker D2S1334 on chromosome 2 (LOD = 3.5) and another region near marker D6S1009 on chromosome 6 with suggestive evidence for linkage (LOD = 2.7). Since these two phenotypes have been independently mapped to the same region on chromosome 6q, we used the bivariate multipoint linkage approach using SOLAR. The bivariate linkage analysis of BMI and HDL-C implicated the genetic region near marker D6S1009 as harboring a major gene commonly influencing these phenotypes (bivariate LOD = 6.2; LODeq = 5.5) and appears to improve power to map the correlated traits to a region, precisely. We found substantial evidence for a quantitative trait locus with pleiotropic effects, which appears to influence both BMI and HDL-C phenotypes in the Framingham data.

Sugar-sweetened beverage, diet soda, and fatty liver disease in the Framingham Heart Study cohorts.

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Ma, Jiantao; Fox, Caroline S; Jacques, Paul F; Speliotes, Elizabeth K; Hoffmann, Udo; Smith, Caren E; Saltzman, Edward; McKeown, Nicola M

2015-08-01

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease affects ∼30% of US adults, yet the role of sugar-sweetened beverages and diet soda on these diseases remains unknown. We examined the cross-sectional association between intake of sugar-sweetened beverages or diet soda and fatty liver disease in participants of the Framingham Offspring and Third Generation cohorts. Fatty liver disease was defined using liver attenuation measurements generated from computed tomography in 2634 participants. Alanine transaminase concentration, a crude marker of fatty liver disease, was measured in 5908 participants. Sugar-sweetened beverage and diet soda intake were estimated using a food frequency questionnaire. Participants were categorized as either non-consumers or consumers (3 categories: 1 serving/month to sugar-sweetened beverages or diet soda. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, Framingham cohort, energy intake, alcohol, dietary fiber, fat (% energy), protein (% energy), diet soda intake, and body mass index, the odds ratios of fatty liver disease were 1, 1.16 (0.88, 1.54), 1.32 (0.93, 1.86), and 1.61 (1.04, 2.49) across sugar-sweetened beverage consumption categories (p trend=0.04). Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption was also positively associated with alanine transaminase levels (p trend=0.007). We observed no significant association between diet soda intake and measures of fatty liver disease. In conclusion, we observed that regular sugar-sweetened beverage consumption was associated with greater risk of fatty liver disease, particularly in overweight and obese individuals, whereas diet soda intake was not associated with measures of fatty liver disease. Copyright © 2015 European Association for the Study of the Liver. All rights reserved.

A Posterior Circulation Ischemia Risk Score System to Assist the Diagnosis of Dizziness.

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Chen, Ru; Su, Rui; Deng, Mingzhu; Liu, Jia; Hu, Qing; Song, Zhi

2018-02-01

We aimed to establish a risk score system without radio-image examination, which could help clinicians to differentiate patients with vertigo and posterior circulation ischemia (PCI) rapidly from the other dizzy patients. We analyzed 304 patients with vertigo (50% PCI). The attributes with more significant contributions were selected as the risk factors for the PCI risk score system, and every one of them was assigned a value according to their respective odds ratio values. We also compared the respective receiver operating characteristic curves of the 3 diagnostic methods (PCI score system, ABCD 2 , and Essen score systems) to evaluate their prediction effectiveness. Nine risk factors were ultimately selected for PCI score system, including high blood pressure (1'), diabetes mellitus (1'), ischemic stroke (1'), rotating and rocking (-1'), difficulty in speech (5'), tinnitus (-5'), limb and sensory deficit (5'), gait ataxia (1'), and limb ataxia (5'). According to their respective PCI risk scores, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups: low risk (≤0', risk 95.0%). When 0' was selected as a cutoff point for differentiating the patients with PCI from patients without PCI, the sensitivity was 94.1%, with a specificity of 41.4%. The areas under the receiver operator curve value of PCI score system was .82 (P = .000), much higher than the areas under the receiver operator curve value of ABCD 2 (.69, P = .000) and that of the Essen system (.67, P = .000) CONCLUSION: The PCI score system could help clinicians to differentiate patients with vertigo and PCI rapidly from the other dizzy patients. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

External validation of the NOBLADS score, a risk scoring system for severe acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding.

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Tomonori Aoki

Full Text Available We aimed to evaluate the generalizability of NOBLADS, a severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB prediction model which we had previously derived when working at a different institution, using an external validation cohort. NOBLADS comprises the following factors: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure ≤ 100 mmHg, antiplatelet drug use, albumin < 3.0 g/dL, disease score ≥ 2, and syncope.We retrospectively analyzed 511 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB at the University of Tokyo Hospital, from January 2009 to August 2016. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs-AUCs for severe bleeding (continuous and/or recurrent bleeding were compared between the original derivation cohort and the external validation cohort.Severe LGIB occurred in 44% of patients. Several clinical factors were significantly different between the external and derivation cohorts (p < 0.05, including background, laboratory data, NOBLADS scores, and diagnosis. The NOBLADS score predicted the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.74 in the external validation cohort and one of 0.77 in the derivation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the score predicted the risk for blood transfusion need (AUC, 0.71, but was not adequate for predicting intervention need (AUC, 0.54. The in-hospital mortality rate was higher in patients with a score ≥ 5 than in those with a score < 5 (AUC, 0.83.Although the external validation cohort clinically differed from the derivation cohort in many ways, we confirmed the moderately high generalizability of NOBLADS, a clinical risk score for severe LGIB. Appropriate triage using this score may support early decision-making in various hospitals.

Comparison of RISK-PCI, GRACE, TIMI risk scores for prediction of major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

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Jakimov, Tamara; Mrdović, Igor; Filipović, Branka; Zdravković, Marija; Djoković, Aleksandra; Hinić, Saša; Milić, Nataša; Filipović, Branislav

2017-12-31

To compare the prognostic performance of three major risk scoring systems including global registry for acute coronary events (GRACE), thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI), and prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (RISK-PCI). This single-center retrospective study involved 200 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent invasive diagnostic approach, ie, coronary angiography and myocardial revascularization if appropriate, in the period from January 2014 to July 2014. The GRACE, TIMI, and RISK-PCI risk scores were compared for their predictive ability. The primary endpoint was a composite 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), which included death, urgent target-vessel revascularization (TVR), stroke, and non-fatal recurrent myocardial infarction (REMI). The c-statistics of the tested scores for 30-day MACE or area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with confidence intervals (CI) were as follows: RISK-PCI (AUC=0.94; 95% CI 1.790-4.353), the GRACE score on admission (AUC=0.73; 95% CI 1.013-1.045), the GRACE score on discharge (AUC=0.65; 95% CI 0.999-1.033). The RISK-PCI score was the only score that could predict TVR (AUC=0.91; 95% CI 1.392-2.882). The RISK-PCI scoring system showed an excellent discriminative potential for 30-day death (AUC=0.96; 95% CI 1.339-3.548) in comparison with the GRACE scores on admission (AUC=0.88; 95% CI 1.018-1.072) and on discharge (AUC=0.78; 95% CI 1.000-1.058). In comparison with the GRACE and TIMI scores, RISK-PCI score showed a non-inferior ability to predict 30-day MACE and death in ACS patients. Moreover, RISK-PCI was the only scoring system that could predict recurrent ischemia requiring TVR.

Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

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Leonardo Sinnott Silva

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI, EuroSCORE II (ESII, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score, Ambler score (AS and Guaragna score (GS. The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42 for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16 for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68 for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64 for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05. Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

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Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. DESIGN: International multicentre prospective study. SETTING: Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania...... clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined...... accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited...

Personalized Risk Scoring for Critical Care Prognosis Using Mixtures of Gaussian Processes.

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Alaa, Ahmed M; Yoon, Jinsung; Hu, Scott; van der Schaar, Mihaela

2018-01-01

In this paper, we develop a personalized real-time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs; the proposed risk scoring system ensures timely intensive care unit admissions for clinically deteriorating patients. The risk scoring system is based on the idea of sequential hypothesis testing under an uncertain time horizon. The system learns a set of latent patient subtypes from the offline electronic health record data, and trains a mixture of Gaussian Process experts, where each expert models the physiological data streams associated with a specific patient subtype. Transfer learning techniques are used to learn the relationship between a patient's latent subtype and her static admission information (e.g., age, gender, transfer status, ICD-9 codes, etc). Experiments conducted on data from a heterogeneous cohort of 6321 patients admitted to Ronald Reagan UCLA medical center show that our score significantly outperforms the currently deployed risk scores, such as the Rothman index, MEWS, APACHE, and SOFA scores, in terms of timeliness, true positive rate, and positive predictive value. Our results reflect the importance of adopting the concepts of personalized medicine in critical care settings; significant accuracy and timeliness gains can be achieved by accounting for the patients' heterogeneity. The proposed risk scoring methodology can confer huge clinical and social benefits on a massive number of critically ill inpatients who exhibit adverse outcomes including, but not limited to, cardiac arrests, respiratory arrests, and septic shocks.

An updated prediction model of the global risk of cardiovascular disease in HIV-positive persons

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Friis-Møller, Nina; Ryom, Lene; Smith, Colette

2016-01-01

,663 HIV-positive persons from 20 countries in Europe and Australia, who were free of CVD at entry into the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. Cox regression models (full and reduced) were developed that predict the risk of a global CVD endpoint. The predictive performance...... significantly predicted risk more accurately than the recalibrated Framingham model (Harrell's c-statistic of 0.791, 0.783 and 0.766 for the D:A:D full, D:A:D reduced, and Framingham models respectively; p models also more accurately predicted five-year CVD-risk for key prognostic subgroups...... to quantify risk and to guide preventive care....

Prevalence of 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases and Associated Risks in Canadian Adults: The Contribution of Cardiometabolic Risk Assessment Introduction

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Solmaz Setayeshgar

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death in adult Canadians. Cardiometabolic risk (CMR derived from 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases and metabolic syndrome (MetS needs to be evaluated in Canadian adults. Objective. To determine CMR among Canadian adults by sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. Subjects and Methods. Data from the Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS, Cycle 1, 2007–2009, was used. Framingham Risk Score (FRS was implemented to predict 10-year risk of CVD, and metabolic syndrome was identified using the most recent criteria. The 10-year risk of CVD was multiplied by 1.5 in individuals with MetS to obtain CMR. Data were weighted and bootstrapped to be able to generalize the results nationally. Results and Conclusion. CMR gave more accurate estimation of 10-year risk of CVD in Canadian adults from 30 to 74 years than using only FRS. The 10-year risk of CVD in Canadian adults significantly increased when CMR was taken into account from 8.10% to 9.86%. The CVD risk increased by increase in age, decrease in education, and decrease in physical activity and in smokers. Canadians with medium risk of CVD consumed significantly less fruit and vegetable juice compared to Canadians with low risk. No other dietary differences were found.

Interrater reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores provided in Canadian criminal proceedings.

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Edens, John F; Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Cox, Jennifer; Smith, Shannon Toney

2016-12-01

Published research suggests that most violence risk assessment tools have relatively high levels of interrater reliability, but recent evidence of inconsistent scores among forensic examiners in adversarial settings raises concerns about the "field reliability" of such measures. This study specifically examined the reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) scores in Canadian criminal cases identified in the legal database, LexisNexis. Over 250 reported cases were located that made mention of the VRAG, with 42 of these cases containing 2 or more scores that could be submitted to interrater reliability analyses. Overall, scores were skewed toward higher risk categories. The intraclass correlation (ICCA1) was .66, with pairs of forensic examiners placing defendants into the same VRAG risk "bin" in 68% of the cases. For categorical risk statements (i.e., low, moderate, high), examiners provided converging assessment results in most instances (86%). In terms of potential predictors of rater disagreement, there was no evidence for adversarial allegiance in our sample. Rater disagreement in the scoring of 1 VRAG item (Psychopathy Checklist-Revised; Hare, 2003), however, strongly predicted rater disagreement in the scoring of the VRAG (r = .58). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

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Mehdi Khashei

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

Prospects for using risk scores in polygenic medicine

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Cathryn M. Lewis

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Editorial summary Genome-wide association studies have made strides in identifying common variation associated with disease. The modest effect sizes preclude risk prediction based on single genetic variants, but polygenic risk scores that combine thousands of variants show some predictive ability across a range of complex traits and diseases, including neuropsychiatric disorders. Here, we consider the potential for translation to clinical use.

Vascular Risk as a Predictor of Cognitive Decline in a Cohort of Elderly Patients with Mild to Moderate Dementia

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Pedro K. Curiati

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Background/Aims: The purpose of our study was to evaluate vascular risk factors and other clinical variables as predictors of cognitive and functional decline in elderly patients with mild to moderate dementia. Methods: The clinical characteristics of 82 elderly patients (mean age 79.0 ± 5.9 years; 67.1% females with mild to moderate dementia were obtained at baseline, including years of education, Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk score, Hachinski Ischemic Score (HIS, Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE score, Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ score, Burden Interview Scale score, and Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI score. Changes in MMSE and FAQ scores over time were assessed annually. The association between baseline clinical variables and cognitive and functional decline was investigated during 3 years of follow-up through the use of generalized linear mixed effects models. Results: A trend was found towards steeper cognitive decline in patients with less vascular burden according to the HIS (β = 0.056, p = 0.09, better cognitive performance according to the CDR score (β = 0.313, p = 0.06 and worse caregiver burden according to the Burden Interview Scale score (β = -0.012, p = 0.07 at baseline. Conclusion: Further studies with larger samples are necessary to confirm and expand our findings.

The HEART score is useful to predict cardiovascular risks and reduces unnecessary cardiac imaging in low-risk patients with acute chest pain.

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Dai, Siping; Huang, Bo; Zou, Yunliang; Guo, Jianbin; Liu, Ziyong; Pi, Dangyu; Qiu, Yunhong; Xiao, Chun

2018-06-01

The present study was to investigate whether the HEART score can be used to evaluate cardiovascular risks and reduce unnecessary cardiac imaging in China.Acute coronary syndrome patients with the thrombosis in myocardial infarction risk score risk HEART score group and 2 patients (1.5%) in the high risk HEART score group had cardiovascular events. The sensitivity of HEART score to predict cardiovascular events was 100% and the specificity was 46.7%. The potential unnecessary cardiac testing was 46.3%. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that per one category increase of the HEART score was associated with nearly 1.3-fold risk of cardiovascular events.In the low-risk acute chest pain patients, the HEART score is useful to physicians in evaluating the risk of cardiovascular events within the first 30 days. In addition, the HEART score is also useful in reducing the unnecessary cardiac imaging.

Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

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Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

2014-01-01

In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies.

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Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim

2016-09-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led

Automated Quantification of the Morphological Atherosclerotic Calcification Distribution on X-Rays Is a Strong Predictor of Mortality in Postmenopausal Women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Claus; Karsdal, Morten; Lauze, Francois Bernard

2008-01-01

Background and Purpose: Aortic calcification is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) related deaths. We investigated the relation between mortality and aspects of number, size, morphology and distribution of calcified plaques in the lumbar aorta of postmenopausal women. Methods: 308...... women aged 48 to 76 were followed for 8.3+-0.3 years and cardiovascular, cancer and all-cause deaths were recorded. Several aortic calcification markers were quantified: number, morphology, distribution, from outlines of the calcified plaques in lumbar X-rays at baseline. These markers were compared...... to SCORE card, Framingham score, and the Aortic Calcification Severity score - AC24. Results: AC24 adjusted by age, waist circumference, and triglyceride levels predicted mortality in postmenopausal women (CVD p=0.03, All-cause p=0.006). The SCORE card and the Framingham score resulted in mortality odds...

The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects.

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Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S

2017-03-01

Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The ACTA PORT-score for predicting perioperative risk of blood transfusion for adult cardiac surgery.

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Klein, A A; Collier, T; Yeates, J; Miles, L F; Fletcher, S N; Evans, C; Richards, T

2017-09-01

A simple and accurate scoring system to predict risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. We identified independent risk factors associated with transfusion by performing univariate analysis, followed by logistic regression. We then simplified the score to an integer-based system and tested it using the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUC) statistic with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the scoring system was applied to the external validation dataset and the same statistical methods applied to test the accuracy of the ACTA-PORT score. Several factors were independently associated with risk of transfusion, including age, sex, body surface area, logistic EuroSCORE, preoperative haemoglobin and creatinine, and type of surgery. In our primary dataset, the score accurately predicted risk of perioperative transfusion in cardiac surgery patients with an AUC of 0.76. The external validation confirmed accuracy of the scoring method with an AUC of 0.84 and good agreement across all scores, with a minor tendency to under-estimate transfusion risk in very high-risk patients. The ACTA-PORT score is a reliable, validated tool for predicting risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This and other scores can be used in research studies for risk adjustment when assessing outcomes, and might also be incorporated into a Patient Blood Management programme. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Cardiovascular risk assessment in the treatment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: a secondary analysis of the MOZART trial.

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Lin, Steven C; Ang, Brandon; Hernandez, Carolyn; Bettencourt, Ricki; Jain, Rashmi; Salotti, Joanie; Richards, Lisa; Kono, Yuko; Bhatt, Archana; Aryafar, Hamed; Lin, Grace Y; Valasek, Mark A; Sirlin, Claude B; Brouha, Sharon; Loomba, Rohit

2016-03-01

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is associated with increased cardiovascular risk and mortality. No US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved therapies for NASH are available; clinical trials to date have not yet systematically assessed for changes in cardiovascular risk. This study examines the prospective utility of cardiovascular risk assessments, the Framingham risk score (FRS) and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, as endpoints in a NASH randomized clinical trial, and assesses whether histologic improvements lead to lower cardiovascular risk. Secondary analysis of a 24-week randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (MOZART) in which 50 biopsy-proven NASH patients received oral ezetimibe 10 mg daily (n = 25) versus placebo (n = 25). Biochemical profiling, FRS, CAC scores, liver biopsies were obtained at baseline and endpoint. Ezetimibe improved FRS whereas placebo did not (4.4 ± 6.2 to 2.9 ± 4.8, p = 0.038; 3.0 ± 4.4 to 2.9 ± 4.2, p = 0.794). CAC scores did not change with ezetimibe or placebo (180.4 ± 577.2 to 194.1 ± 623.9, p = 0.293; 151.4 ± 448.9 to 183.3 ± 555.7, p = 0.256). Ezetimibe improved FRS and CAC scores in more patients than placebo (48% versus 23%, p = 0.079, and 21% versus 0%, p = 0.090, respectively), though not significantly. No differences were noted in cardiovascular risk scores among histologic responders versus nonresponders. Ezetimibe improved FRS whereas placebo did not. FRS and CAC scores improved in a greater proportion of patients with ezetimibe; this trend did not reach significance. These findings indicate the utility and feasibility of monitoring cardiovascular risk in a NASH trial. The utility of CAC scores may be higher in trials of longer duration (⩾52 weeks) and with older patients (age ⩾45). ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT01766713.

CAN TIMI RISK SCORE PREDICT ANGIOGRAPHIC INVOLVEMENT IN PATIENTS WITH ST-ELEVATION MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION?

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Allahyar Golabchi

2010-11-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In most studies, the agreeable risk scores for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI consist of thrombolytic in myocardial infarction (TIMI risk score and modified Gensini risk score. Researchers showed significant relations between TIMI with angiography scores in patients with UA/NSTEMI. We studied this relation in patients with STEMI.    METHODS: We studied CCU patients with STEMI hospitalized in several hospitals of Isfahan, Iran from September 2007 to June 2008. Sampling method of 240 patients was random and simple. Exclusion criteria were incomplete history, nonspecific electrocardiogram changes, left bundle branch block and not accomplished angiography or accomplished angiography after 2 months of STEMI. Questionnaire indices collected on the basis of TIMI (0-14 points. Echocardiography and angiography were done and then, we used Gensini (0-400 points to review films of angiography. Spearman`s rank test and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to study the relation between these scores.    RESULTS: One hundred and sixty one patients were male and their average age was 60.02 years. Averages of TIMI and Gensini scores were 6.30 ± 2.5 and 120.77 ± 50.4, respectively. Study showed significant relation between TIMI, age and LVEF (P <0.001, r=-0.46. Also, between Gensini and age, gender and LVEF significant relation was found (P <0.001. But, a meaningful correlation didn’t exist between TIMI and the gender (P =0.08. Our study proved direct relation between TIMI risk scores and modified Gensini scores (P <0.001, r=0.55.     CONCLUSION: We may decide quickly and correctly in emergency room to distinguish which patients with STEMI could derive a benefit from invasive strategies using TIMI score. Also, TIMI risk score can be a good predictor to determine the extension of coronary artery disease in patients with STEMI. As a result, we suggest determination of TIMI score for any patient entered emergency room. Also

Thresholds for pulse wave velocity, urine albumin creatinine ratio and left ventricular mass index using SCORE, Framingham and ESH/ESC risk charts

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Sehestedt, Thomas Berend; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine Willum

2012-01-01

Markers of subclinical target organ damage (TOD) increase cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. We wanted to establish thresholds for three markers of TOD based on absolute CV risk in different risk chart categories....

Genome-wide association study of Lp-PLA(2 activity and mass in the Framingham Heart Study.

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Sunil Suchindran

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2 (Lp-PLA(2 is an emerging risk factor and therapeutic target for cardiovascular disease. The activity and mass of this enzyme are heritable traits, but major genetic determinants have not been explored in a systematic, genome-wide fashion. We carried out a genome-wide association study of Lp-PLA(2 activity and mass in 6,668 Caucasian subjects from the population-based Framingham Heart Study. Clinical data and genotypes from the Affymetrix 550K SNP array were obtained from the open-access Framingham SHARe project. Each polymorphism that passed quality control was tested for associations with Lp-PLA(2 activity and mass using linear mixed models implemented in the R statistical package, accounting for familial correlations, and controlling for age, sex, smoking, lipid-lowering-medication use, and cohort. For Lp-PLA(2 activity, polymorphisms at four independent loci reached genome-wide significance, including the APOE/APOC1 region on chromosome 19 (p = 6 x 10(-24; CELSR2/PSRC1 on chromosome 1 (p = 3 x 10(-15; SCARB1 on chromosome 12 (p = 1x10(-8 and ZNF259/BUD13 in the APOA5/APOA1 gene region on chromosome 11 (p = 4 x 10(-8. All of these remained significant after accounting for associations with LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, or triglycerides. For Lp-PLA(2 mass, 12 SNPs achieved genome-wide significance, all clustering in a region on chromosome 6p12.3 near the PLA2G7 gene. Our analyses demonstrate that genetic polymorphisms may contribute to inter-individual variation in Lp-PLA(2 activity and mass.

A Novel Risk Scoring System Reliably Predicts Readmission Following Pancreatectomy

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Valero, Vicente; Grimm, Joshua C.; Kilic, Arman; Lewis, Russell L.; Tosoian, Jeffrey J.; He, Jin; Griffin, James; Cameron, John L.; Weiss, Matthew J.; Vollmer, Charles M.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.

2015-01-01

Background Postoperative readmissions have been proposed by Medicare as a quality metric and may impact provider reimbursement. Since readmission following pancreatectomy is common, we sought to identify factors associated with readmission in order to establish a predictive risk scoring system (RSS). Study Design A retrospective analysis of 2,360 pancreatectomies performed at nine, high-volume pancreatic centers between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Forty-five factors strongly associated with readmission were identified. To derive and validate a RSS, the population was randomly divided into two cohorts in a 4:1 fashion. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and scores were assigned based on the relative odds ratio of each independent predictor. A composite Readmission After Pancreatectomy (RAP) score was generated and then stratified to create risk groups. Results Overall, 464 (19.7%) patients were readmitted within 90-days. Eight pre- and postoperative factors, including prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.03), ASA Class ≥ 3 (OR 1.34), dementia (OR 6.22), hemorrhage (OR 1.81), delayed gastric emptying (OR 1.78), surgical site infection (OR 3.31), sepsis (OR 3.10) and short length of stay (OR 1.51), were independently predictive of readmission. The 32-point RAP score generated from the derivation cohort was highly predictive of readmission in the validation cohort (AUC 0.72). The low (0-3), intermediate (4-7) and high risk (>7) groups correlated to 11.7%, 17.5% and 45.4% observed readmission rates, respectively (preadmission following pancreatectomy. Identification of patients with increased risk of readmission using the RAP score will allow efficient resource allocation aimed to attenuate readmission rates. It also has potential to serve as a new metric for comparative research and quality assessment. PMID:25797757

[Clinical scores for the risk of bleeding with or without anticoagulation].

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Junod, Alain

2016-09-14

The assessment of hemorragic risk related to therapeutic anticoagulation is made difficult because of the variety of existing drugs, the heterogeneity of treatment strategies and their duration. Six prognostic scores have been analyzed. For three of them, external validations have revealed a marked decrease in the discrimination power. One British study, Qbleed, based on the data of more than 1 million of ambulatory patients, has repeatedly satisfied quality criteria. Two scores have also studied the bleeding risk during hospital admission for acute medical disease. The development of new and effective anticoagulants with fewer side-effects is more likely to solve this problem than the production of new clinical scores.

Does simplicity compromise accuracy in ACS risk prediction? A retrospective analysis of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores.

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Krishna G Aragam

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI risk scores for Unstable Angina/Non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality are established tools for assessing risk in Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS patients. The objective of our study was to compare the discriminative abilities of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores in a broad-spectrum, unselected ACS population and to assess the relative contributions of model simplicity and model composition to any observed differences between the two scoring systems. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: ACS patients admitted to the University of Michigan between 1999 and 2005 were divided into UA/NSTEMI (n = 2753 and STEMI (n = 698 subpopulations. The predictive abilities of the TIMI and GRACE scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality were assessed by calibration and discrimination. There were 137 in-hospital deaths (4%, and among the survivors, 234 (7.4% died by 6 months post-discharge. In the UA/NSTEMI population, the GRACE risk scores demonstrated better discrimination than the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score for in-hospital (C = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.89, versus 0.54, 95% CI: 0.48-0.60; p<0.01 and 6-month (C = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.76-0.83, versus 0.56, 95% CI: 0.52-0.60; p<0.01 mortality. Among STEMI patients, the GRACE and TIMI STEMI scores demonstrated comparably excellent discrimination for in-hospital (C = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78-0.90 versus 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78-0.89; p = 0.83 and 6-month (C = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.63-0.81, versus 0.71, 95% CI: 0.64-0.79; p = 0.79 mortality. An analysis of refitted multivariate models demonstrated a marked improvement in the discriminative power of the TIMI UA/NSTEMI model with the incorporation of heart failure and hemodynamic variables. Study limitations included unaccounted for confounders inherent to observational, single institution

Risk stratification with the risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension compared with SCORE in the general population

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Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W

2009-01-01

to higher-risk categories than SCORE (P smokers. However, ESH risk chart agreed with ESC guidelines for antihypertensive treatment using SCORE in 89% (634/713) of the patients recommended treatment and produced...... similar sensitivities (79 vs. 79%), specificities (46 vs. 50%), positive (14 vs. 15%) and negative (95 vs. 96%) predictive values for CEP. CONCLUSION: Although SCORE did not use subclinical organ damage, the guidelines by ESH and ESC using SCORE recommended antihypertensive treatment in almost the same...

A validated risk score to estimate mortality risk in patients with dementia and pneumonia: barriers to clinical impact

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van der Steen, J.T.; Albers, G.; Strunk, E.; Muller, M.T.; Ribbe, M.W.

2011-01-01

Background: The clinical impact of risk score use in end-of-life settings is unknown, with reports limited to technical properties. Methods: We conducted a mixed-methods study to evaluate clinical impact of a validated mortality risk score aimed at informing prognosis and supporting clinicians in

Two acute kidney injury risk scores for critically ill cancer patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.

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Xing, Xue-Zhong; Wang, Hai-Jun; Huang, Chu-Lin; Yang, Quan-Hui; Qu, Shi-Ning; Zhang, Hao; Wang, Hao; Gao, Yong; Xiao, Qing-Ling; Sun, Ke-Lin

2012-01-01

Several risk scoures have been used in predicting acute kidney injury (AKI) of patients undergoing general or specific operations such as cardiac surgery. This study aimed to evaluate the use of two AKI risk scores in patients who underwent non-cardiac surgery but required intensive care. The clinical data of patients who had been admitted to ICU during the first 24 hours of ICU stay between September 2009 and August 2010 at the Cancer Institute, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College were retrospectively collected and analyzed. AKI was diagnosed based on the acute kidney injury network (AKIN) criteria. Two AKI risk scores were calculated: Kheterpal and Abelha factors. The incidence of AKI was 10.3%. Patients who developed AKI had a increased ICU mortality of 10.9% vs. 1.0% and an in-hospital mortality of 13.0 vs. 1.5%, compared with those without AKI. There was a significant difference between the classification of Kheterpal's AKI risk scores and the occurrence of AKI (PAbelha's AKI risk scores and the occurrence of AKI (P=0.499). Receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.655±0.043 (P=0.001, 95% confidence interval: 0.571-0.739) for Kheterpal's AKI risk score and 0.507±0.044 (P=0.879, 95% confidence interval: 0.422-0.592) for Abelha's AKI risk score. Kheterpal's AKI risk scores are more accurate than Abelha's AKI risk scores in predicting the occurrence of AKI in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery with moderate predictive capability.

A Danish diabetes risk score for targeted screening: the Inter99 study.

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Glümer, Charlotte; Carstensen, Bendix; Sandbaek, Annelli; Lauritzen, Torsten; Jørgensen, Torben; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

2004-03-01

To develop a simple self-administered questionnaire identifying individuals with undiagnosed diabetes with a sensitivity of 75% and minimizing the high-risk group needing subsequent testing. A population-based sample (Inter99 study) of 6,784 individuals aged 30-60 years completed a questionnaire on diabetes-related symptoms and risk factors. The participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test. The risk score was derived from the first half and validated on the second half of the study population. External validation was performed based on the Danish Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment in People with Screen Detected Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION) pilot study. The risk score was developed by stepwise backward multiple logistic regression. The final risk score included age, sex, BMI, known hypertension, physical activity at leisure time, and family history of diabetes, items independently and significantly (Pscreening strategy for type 2 diabetes, decreasing the numbers of subsequent tests and thereby possibly minimizing the economical and personal costs of the screening strategy.

In-hospital outcome of acute myocardial infarction in correlation with 'thrombolysis in myocardial infarction' risk score

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masood, A.; Naqvi, M.A.; Jafar, S.S.

2009-01-01

Effective risk stratification is integral to management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a simple integer score based on 8 high-risk parameters that can be used at the bedside for risk stratification of patients at presentation with STEMI. To evaluate the prognostic significance of TIMI risk score in a local population group of acute STEMI. The study included 160 cases of STEMI eligible for thrombolysis. TIMI risk score was calculated for each case at the time of presentation and were then followed during their hospital stay for the occurrence of electrical and mechanical complications as well as mortality. The patients were divided into three risk groups, namely 'low risk', 'moderate-risk' and 'high-risk' based on their TIMI scores (0-4 low-risk, 5-8 moderate-risk, 9-14 high risk). The frequencies of complications and deaths were compared among the three risk groups. Post MI arrhythmias were noted in 2.2%, 16% and 50%; cardiogenic shock in 6.7%, 16% and 60%; pulmonary edema in 6.7%, 20% and 80%; mechanical complications of MI in 0%, 8% and 30%; death in 4.4%, 8%, and 60% of patients belonging to low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups respectively. Frequency of complications and death correlated well with TIMI risk score (p=0.001). TIMI risk score correlates well with the frequency of electrical or mechanical complications and death after STEMI. (author)

B-type Natriuretic Peptide and RISK-PCI Score in the Risk Assessment in Patients with STEMI Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

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Asanin, Milika; Mrdovic, Igor; Savic, Lidija; Matic, Dragan; Krljanac, Gordana; Vukcevic, Vladan; Orlic, Dejan; Stankovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Stankovic, Sanja

2016-01-01

RISK-PCI score is a novel score for risk stratification of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the RISK-PCI score for early risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI. In 120 patients with STEMI treated by pPCI, BNP was measured on admission before pPCI. The primary end point was 30-day mortality. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the most powerful predictive factors of 30-day mortality were the plasma level of BNP ≥ 206.6 pg/mL with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 87.5% and the RISK-PCI score ≥ 5.25 with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 85.7%. Thirty-day mortality was 6.7%. After multivariate adjustment, admission BNP (≥ 206.6 pg/mL) (OR 2.952, 95% CI 1.072 - 8.133, p = 0.036) and the RISK-PCI score (≥ 5.25) (OR 2.284, 95% CI 1.140-4.578, p = 0.020) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. The area under the ROC curve using the RISK-PCI score and BNP to detect mortality was 0.828 (p = 0.002) and 0.903 (p PCI score increased the area under the ROC to 0.949 (p PCI score for 30-day mortality. BNP on admission and the RISK-PCI score were the independent predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with the STEMI treated by pPCI. BNP in combination with the RISK-PCI score showed the way to more accurate risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI.

Relationship Between Gonadal Function and Cardiometabolic Risk in Young Men With Chronic Spinal Cord Injury.

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Sullivan, Shannon D; Nash, Mark S; Tefara, Eshetu; Tinsley, Emily; Groah, Suzanne

2018-04-01

We reported previously that young men with chronic spinal cord injury (SCI) have a greater prevalence of testosterone deficiency compared with an age-matched, healthy control population. Young men with SCI also are at increased risk for developing cardiometabolic dysfunction after injury. It is unclear whether testosterone deficiency is associated with heightened cardiometabolic risk in men with SCI. To investigate associations among levels of testosterone in young men with chronic SCI and surrogate markers of cardiometabolic risk. Secondary cross-sectional analysis. Rehabilitation research centers in Washington, DC, and Miami, Florida. Men (n = 58) aged 18-45 years with chronic (≥1 year), motor complete SCI without comorbidities or use of testosterone therapy. Plasma concentrations of testosterone, lipids, inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein and interleukin-6), percent hemoglobin A1c, glucose, and insulin were measured in a fasting state using standard assays. A 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test and Framingham Risk Score were assessed for each subject. Body composition was assessed by dual X-ray absorptiometry scan. Surrogate markers of cardiometabolic risk among men based on the level of total testosterone (TT; ≤300, 301-500, or >500 ng/dL) and free testosterone (fT; ≤9 or >9 ng/dL). Comparisons were made between men with normal and low TT or fT. Framingham Risk Score was significantly greater in men with low fT (P .08), were greater in men with low TT or low fT. Men with low TT or low fT had lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (P .1) or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P > .07). Men with low TT had greater levels of inflammatory markers C-reactive protein (P .8). In young men with chronic SCI who undergo an accelerated aging process postinjury, hypogonadism is associated with an unfavorable cardiometabolic risk profile. Further research is needed to determine whether a causal relationship exists between hypogonadism and heightened

Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort.

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Hartwig, S; Kuss, O; Tiller, D; Greiser, K H; Schulze, M B; Dierkes, J; Werdan, K; Haerting, J; Kluttig, A

2013-09-01

To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes

Construction of an Exome-Wide Risk Score for Schizophrenia Based on a Weighted Burden Test.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, David

2018-01-01

Polygenic risk scores obtained as a weighted sum of associated variants can be used to explore association in additional data sets and to assign risk scores to individuals. The methods used to derive polygenic risk scores from common SNPs are not suitable for variants detected in whole exome sequencing studies. Rare variants, which may have major effects, are seen too infrequently to judge whether they are associated and may not be shared between training and test subjects. A method is proposed whereby variants are weighted according to their frequency, their annotations and the genes they affect. A weighted sum across all variants provides an individual risk score. Scores constructed in this way are used in a weighted burden test and are shown to be significantly different between schizophrenia cases and controls using a five-way cross-validation procedure. This approach represents a first attempt to summarise exome sequence variation into a summary risk score, which could be combined with risk scores from common variants and from environmental factors. It is hoped that the method could be developed further. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/University College London.

Development of a self-assessment score for metabolic syndrome risk in non-obese Korean adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Je, Youjin; Kim, Youngyo; Park, Taeyoung

2017-03-01

There is a need for simple risk scores that identify individuals at high risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS). Therefore, this study was performed to develop and validate a self-assessment score for MetS risk in non-obese Korean adults. Data from the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES IV), 2007-2009 were used to develop a MetS risk score. We included a total of 5,508 non-obese participants aged 19-64 years who were free of a self-reported diagnosis of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, stroke, angina, or cancer. Multivariable logistic regression model coefficients were used to assign each variable category a score. The validity of the score was assessed in an independent population survey performed in 2010 and 2011, KNHANES V (n=3,892). Age, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, dairy consumption, dietary habit of eating less salty and food insecurity were selected as categorical variables. The MetS risk score value varied from 0 to 13, and a cut-point MetS risk score of >=7 was selected based on the highest Youden index. The cut-point provided a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 61%, positive predictive value of 14%, and negative predictive value of 98%, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78. Consistent results were obtained in the validation data sets. This simple risk score may be used to identify individuals at high risk for MetS without laboratory tests among non-obese Korean adults. Further studies are needed to verify the usefulness and feasibility of this score in various settings.

Case management to reduce cardiovascular disease risk in American Indians and Alaska Natives with diabetes: results from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Healthy Heart Demonstration Project.

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Moore, Kelly; Jiang, Luohua; Manson, Spero M; Beals, Janette; Henderson, William; Pratte, Katherine; Acton, Kelly J; Roubideaux, Yvette

2014-11-01

We evaluated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in American Indians/Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) with diabetes in the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Healthy Heart (SDPI-HH) Demonstration Project. Multidisciplinary teams implemented an intensive case management intervention among 30 health care programs serving 138 tribes. The project recruited 3373 participants, with and without current CVD, between 2006 and 2009. We examined data collected at baseline and 1 year later to determine whether improvements occurred in CVD risk factors and in Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) risk scores, aspirin use, and smoking status. A1c levels decreased an average of 0.2% (P risk scores also decreased significantly. Aspirin therapy increased significantly, and smoking decreased. Participants with more case management visits had significantly greater reductions in LDL cholesterol and A1c values. SDPI-HH successfully translated an intensive case management intervention. Creative retention strategies and an improved understanding of organizational challenges are needed for future Indian health translational efforts.

The value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for refining stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation with a CHADS2 score 0-1

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock

2012-01-01

associated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated in Cox regression models adjusted for year of inclusion and antiplatelet therapy. The value of adding the extra CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors to the CHADS2 score was evaluated by c-statistics, Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and Integrated......DS2-VASc score significantly improved the predictive value of the CHADS2 score alone and a CHA2DS2-VASc score=0 could clearly identify 'truly low risk' subjects. Use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score would significantly improve classification of AF patients at low and intermediate risk of stroke, compared......North American and European guidelines on atrial fibrillation (AF) are conflicting regarding the classification of patients at low/intermediate risk of stroke. We aimed to investigate if the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved risk stratification of AF patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1. Using individual...

Excess free fructose, high-fructose corn syrup and adult asthma: the Framingham Offspring Cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

DeChristopher, Luanne R; Tucker, Katherine L

2018-05-01

There is growing evidence that intakes of high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS), HFCS-sweetened soda, fruit drinks and apple juice - a high-fructose 100 % juice - are associated with asthma, possibly because of the high fructose:glucose ratios and underlying fructose malabsorption, which may contribute to enteral formation of pro-inflammatory advanced glycation end products, which bind receptors that are mediators of asthma. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess associations between intakes of these beverages and asthma risk, with data from the Framingham Offspring Cohort. Diet soda and orange juice - a 100 % juice with a 1:1 fructose:glucose ratio - were included for comparison. Increasing intake of any combination of HFCS-sweetened soda, fruit drinks and apple juice was significantly associated with progressively higher asthma risk, plateauing at 5-7 times/week v. never/seldom, independent of potential confounders (hazard ratio 1·91, Pfructose:glucose ratios, and fructose malabsorption. Recommendations to reduce consumption may be inadequate to address asthma risk, as associations are evident even with moderate intake of these beverages, including apple juice - a 100 % juice. The juice reductions in the US Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children in 2009, and the plateauing/decreasing asthma prevalence (2010-2013), particularly among non-Hispanic black children, may be related. Further research regarding the consequences of fructose malabsorption is needed.

Coronary fluorine-18-sodium fluoride uptake is increased in healthy adults with an unfavorable cardiovascular risk profile

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blomberg, Björn A; Thomassen, Anders; de Jong, Pim A

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Coronary artery fluorine-18-sodium fluoride (F-NaF) uptake reflects coronary artery calcification metabolism and is considered to be an early prognostic marker of coronary heart disease. This study evaluated the relationship between coronary artery F-NaF uptake and cardiovascular risk ...... adults at low cardiovascular risk and that an unfavorable cardiovascular risk profile is associated with a marked increase in coronary artery F-NaF uptake.......OBJECTIVE: Coronary artery fluorine-18-sodium fluoride (F-NaF) uptake reflects coronary artery calcification metabolism and is considered to be an early prognostic marker of coronary heart disease. This study evaluated the relationship between coronary artery F-NaF uptake and cardiovascular risk...... in healthy adults at low cardiovascular risk. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Study participants underwent blood pressure measurements, blood analyses, and coronary artery F-NaF PET/CT imaging. In addition, the 10-year risk for the development of cardiovascular disease, on the basis of the Framingham Risk Score...

Risk scores for diabetes and impaired glycaemia in the Middle East and North Africa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Handlos, Line Neerup; Witte, Daniel Rinse; Almdal, Thomas Peter

2013-01-01

AIMS: To develop risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia for individuals living in the Middle East and North Africa region. In addition, to derive national risk scores for Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and to compare the performance of the regional risk...

Lower Lean Mass Measured by Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) is Not Associated with Increased Risk of Hip Fracture in Women: The Framingham Osteoporosis Study.

Science.gov (United States)

McLean, Robert R; Kiel, Douglas P; Berry, Sarah D; Broe, Kerry E; Zhang, Xiaochun; Cupples, L Adrienne; Hannan, Marian T

2018-01-05

Although muscle mass influences strength in older adults, it is unclear whether low lean mass measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is an independent risk factor for hip fracture. Our objective was to determine the association between DXA lean mass and incident hip fracture risk among 1978 women aged 50 years and older participating in the Framingham Study Original and Offspring cohorts. Leg and total body lean mass (kg) were assessed from whole-body DXA scans collected in 1992-2001. Hip fracture follow-up extended from DXA assessment to the occurrence of fracture, death, drop-out, or end of follow-up in 2007. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) estimating the relative risk of hip fracture associated with a 1-kg increase in baseline lean mass. Mean age was 66 years (range 50-93). Over a median of 8 years of follow-up, 99 hip fractures occurred. In models adjusted for age, height, study cohort, and percent total body fat, neither leg (HR 1.11; 95% CI 0.94, 1.31) nor total body (HR 1.06; 95% CI 0.99, 1.13) lean mass were associated with hip fracture. After further adjustment for femoral neck bone mineral density, leg lean mass results were similar (HR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93, 1.30). In contrast, 1 kg greater total body lean mass was associated with 9% higher hip fracture risk (HR 1.09; 95% CI 1.02, 1.18). Our findings suggest that in women, lower lean mass measured by DXA is not associated with increased risk of hip fracture.

Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Elledge, Julie

2017-12-01

As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease Polygenic Risk Profile Score Predicts Hippocampal Function.

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Xiao, Ena; Chen, Qiang; Goldman, Aaron L; Tan, Hao Yang; Healy, Kaitlin; Zoltick, Brad; Das, Saumitra; Kolachana, Bhaskar; Callicott, Joseph H; Dickinson, Dwight; Berman, Karen F; Weinberger, Daniel R; Mattay, Venkata S

2017-11-01

We explored the cumulative effect of several late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) risk loci using a polygenic risk profile score (RPS) approach on measures of hippocampal function, cognition, and brain morphometry. In a sample of 231 healthy control subjects (19-55 years of age), we used an RPS to study the effect of several LOAD risk loci reported in a recent meta-analysis on hippocampal function (determined by its engagement with blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging during episodic memory) and several cognitive metrics. We also studied effects on brain morphometry in an overlapping sample of 280 subjects. There was almost no significant association of LOAD-RPS with cognitive or morphometric measures. However, there was a significant negative relationship between LOAD-RPS and hippocampal function (familywise error [small volume correction-hippocampal region of interest] p risk score based on APOE haplotype, and for a combined LOAD-RPS + APOE haplotype risk profile score (p risk genes on hippocampal function even in healthy volunteers. The effect of LOAD-RPS on hippocampal function in the relative absence of any effect on cognitive and morphometric measures is consistent with the reported temporal characteristics of LOAD biomarkers with the earlier manifestation of synaptic dysfunction before morphometric and cognitive changes. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. All rights reserved.

Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors as Predictors of Cardiovascular Events in the U.S. Astronaut Corps

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Halm, M. K.; Clark, A.; Wear, M. L.; Murray, J. D.; Polk, J. D.; Amirian, E.

2009-01-01

Risk prediction equations from the Framingham Heart Study are commonly used to predict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) related death. Predicting CHD-related events in the U.S. astronaut corps presents a monumental challenge, both because astronauts tend to live healthier lifestyles and because of the unique cardiovascular stressors associated with being trained for and participating in space flight. Traditional risk factors may not hold enough predictive power to provide a useful indicator of CHD risk in this unique population. It is important to be able to identify individuals who are at higher risk for CHD-related events so that appropriate preventive care can be provided. This is of special importance when planning long duration missions since the ability to provide advanced cardiac care and perform medical evacuation is limited. The medical regimen of the astronauts follows a strict set of clinical practice guidelines in an effort to ensure the best care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of the Framingham risk score (FRS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein levels, blood pressure, and resting pulse as predictors of CHD-related death and MI in the astronaut corps, using Cox regression. Of these factors, only two, LDL and pulse at selection, were predictive of CHD events (HR(95% CI)=1.12 (1.00-1.25) and HR(95% CI)=1.70 (1.05-2.75) for every 5-unit increase in LDL and pulse, respectively). Since traditional CHD risk factors may lack the specificity to predict such outcomes in astronauts, the development of a new predictive model, using additional measures such as electron-beam computed tomography and carotid intima-media thickness ultrasound, is planned for the future.

Association between parental history of diabetes and type 2 diabetes genetic risk scores in the PPP-Botnia and Framingham Offspring Studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vassy, Jason L; Shrader, Peter; Jonsson, Anna Elisabet

2011-01-01

Parental history of diabetes and specific gene variants are risk factors for type 2 diabetes, but the extent to which these factors are associated is unknown.......Parental history of diabetes and specific gene variants are risk factors for type 2 diabetes, but the extent to which these factors are associated is unknown....

Estimating 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in Asian patients with schizophrenia.

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Rekhi, Gurpreet; Khyne, Toe Toe; Lee, Jimmy

This study aims to describe the cardiovascular risk profile of Asian patients with schizophrenia. Data was extracted from the databases of 139 patients with schizophrenia and 206 controls from two previous studies conducted at the Institute for Mental Health (IMH), Singapore. Their medical and smoking histories were obtained, and anthropometric parameters measured. Framingham risk score (FRS) calculator using body mass index was used to compute the 10-year cardiovascular disease risk (FRS BMI ) and the vascular age (VA BMI ) for each participant. Data on fasting lipids were available for 80 patients and all the controls; hence the FRS for lipids (FRS lipids ) and VA (VA lipids ) were also computed. The difference between VA and actual age was computed as VA diff . The 10-year CVD risk and VA diff based on lipids as well as BMI were significantly higher for patients compared to controls (all prisk of CVD in patients with schizophrenia as compared to controls; and conclude that patients with schizophrenia need regular physical health monitoring, especially for cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Polygenic risk score is associated with increased disease risk in 52 Finnish breast cancer families

OpenAIRE

Muranen, Taru A.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Khan, Sofia; Fagerholm, Rainer; Pelttari, Liisa; Lee, Andrew; Aittom?ki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Easton, Douglas F.; Nevanlinna, Heli

2016-01-01

The risk of developing breast cancer is increased in women with family history of breast cancer and particularly in families with multiple cases of breast or ovarian cancer. Nevertheless, many women with a positive family history never develop the disease. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on the risk effects of multiple common genetic variants have been proposed for individual risk assessment on a population level. We investigate the applicability of the PRS for risk prediction within breas...

New modalities of ultrasound-based intima-media thickness, arterial stiffness and non-coronary vascular calcifications detection to assess cardiovascular risk.

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Flore, R; Ponziani, F R; Tinelli, G; Arena, V; Fonnesu, C; Nesci, A; Santoro, L; Tondi, P; Santoliquido, A

2015-04-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (c-IMT), arterial stiffness (AS) and vascular calcification (VC) are now considered important new markers of atherosclerosis and have been associated with increased prevalence of cardiovascular events. An accurate, reproducible and easy detection of these parameters could increase the prognostic value of the traditional cardiovascular risk factors in many subjects at low and intermediate risk. Today, c-IMT and AS can be measured by ultrasound, while cardiac computed tomography is the gold standard to quantify coronary VC, although concern about the reproducibility of the former and the safety of the latter have been raised. Nevertheless, a safe and reliable method to quantify non-coronary (i.e., peripheral) VC has not been detected yet. To review the most innovative and accurate ultrasound-based modalities of c-IMT and AS detection and to describe a novel UltraSound-Based Carotid, Aortic and Lower limbs Calcification Score (USB-CALCs, simply named CALC), allowing to quantify peripheral calcifications. Finally, to propose a system for cardiovascular risk reclassification derived from the global evaluation of "Quality Intima-Media Thickness", "Quality Arterial Stiffness", and "CALC score" in addition to the Framingham score.

A path analysis of a randomized promotora de salud cardiovascular disease-prevention trial among at-risk Hispanic adults.

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de Heer, Hendrik Dirk; Balcazar, Hector G; Castro, Felipe; Schulz, Leslie

2012-02-01

This study assessed effectiveness of an educational community intervention taught by promotoras de salud in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among Hispanics using a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. Model development was guided by a social ecological framework proposing CVD risk reduction through improvement of protective health behaviors, health beliefs, contextual and social factors. Participants were 328 Hispanic adults with at least one CVD risk factor. SEM analyses assessed direct and indirect effects of intervention participation on CVD risk (Framingham score) and latent variables nutrition intake and health beliefs. The model fit was adequate (root mean square error of approximation = .056 [90% confidence interval = .040, .072], comparative fit index = .967, normed fit index = .938, nonnormed fit index = .947). Intervention participation was associated with improved nutritional consumption, but not lower CVD risk. Stronger health beliefs predicted healthier nutritional habits. This project provided evidence for the adequacy of a conceptual framework that can be used to elicit new pathways toward CVD risk reduction among at-risk Hispanic populations.

[The scoring system for the risk-stratification in patients with the antiphospholipid syndrome].

Science.gov (United States)

Oku, Kenji

2017-01-01

  Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a clinical disorder characterized by thrombosis and/or pregnancy morbidity in the persistence of the pathogenic autoantibodies, the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). Recurernt thrombosis is often observed in patients with APS which requires persistent prophylaxis. However, an uniform prophylactic treatment for APS patients is inadequate and stratification of the thrombotic risks is important as aPL are prevalently observed in other various diseases or elderly population. It is previously known that the multiple positivity or high titre of aPL correlate to the thrombotic events. To progress the stratification of the thrombotic risks and to quantitatively analyze them, antiphospholipid score (aPL-S) and the Global Anti-Phospholipid Syndrome Score (GAPSS) were defined as the scoring-systems. Both of these scoring-systems were raised from the large patient cohort data and either aPL profile classified in detail (aPL-S) or simplified aPL profile with classical thrombotic risk factors (GAPSS) were put into scoring system. They have shown a degree of accuracy in identifying high-risk APS patients, especially those at a high risk of thrombosis. However, there are several areas requiring improvement, or at least that clinicians should be aware of, before these instruments are applied in clinical practice. One such issue is standardisation of the aPL tests, including general testing of phosphatidylserine dependent antiprothrombin antibodies (aPS/PT).

A simplified clinical risk score predicts the need for early endoscopy in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

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Tammaro, Leonardo; Buda, Andrea; Di Paolo, Maria Carla; Zullo, Angelo; Hassan, Cesare; Riccio, Elisabetta; Vassallo, Roberto; Caserta, Luigi; Anderloni, Andrea; Natali, Alessandro

2014-09-01

Pre-endoscopic triage of patients who require an early upper endoscopy can improve management of patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. To validate a new simplified clinical score (T-score) to assess the need of an early upper endoscopy in non variceal bleeding patients. Secondary outcomes were re-bleeding rate, 30-day bleeding-related mortality. In this prospective, multicentre study patients with bleeding who underwent upper endoscopy were enrolled. The accuracy for high risk endoscopic stigmata of the T-score was compared with that of the Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Overall, 602 patients underwent early upper endoscopy, and 472 presented with non-variceal bleeding. High risk endoscopic stigmata were detected in 145 (30.7%) cases. T-score sensitivity and specificity for high risk endoscopic stigmata and bleeding-related mortality was 96% and 30%, and 80% and 71%, respectively. No statistically difference in predicting high risk endoscopic stigmata between T-score and Glasgow Blatchford risk score was observed (ROC curve: 0.72 vs. 0.69, p=0.11). The two scores were also similar in predicting re-bleeding (ROC curve: 0.64 vs. 0.63, p=0.4) and 30-day bleeding-related mortality (ROC curve: 0.78 vs. 0.76, p=0.3). The T-score appeared to predict high risk endoscopic stigmata, re-bleeding and mortality with similar accuracy to Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Such a score may be helpful for the prediction of high-risk patients who need a very early therapeutic endoscopy. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Severe Spontaneous Echo Contrast/Auricolar Thrombosis in "Nonvalvular" AF: Value of Thromboembolic Risk Scores.

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Mascioli, Giosuè; Lucca, Elena; Michelotti, Federica; Alioto, Giusy; Santoro, Franco; Belli, Guido; Rota, Cristina; Ornago, Ombretta; Sirianni, Giovanni; Pulcini, Emanuela; Pennesi, Matteo; Savasta, Carlo; Russo, Rosario; Pitì, Antonino

2017-01-01

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have an increased thromboembolic risk that can be estimated with risk scores and sometimes require oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT). Despite correct anticoagulation, some patients still develop left atrial spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) or thrombosis. The value of traditional risk scores (R 2 CHADS 2 , CHADS 2 , and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) in predicting such events remains controversial. The aim of our study was to explore variables linked to severe SEC or atrial thrombosis and evaluate the performance of traditional risk scores in identifying these patients. In order to do this, we retrospectively analyzed 568 patients with nonvalvular nonparoxysmal AF who underwent electrical cardioversion from January 2011 to December 2016 after OAT for a minimum of 4 weeks. A transesophageal echocardiogram was performed in 265 patients for various indications, and 24 exhibited left atrial SEC or thrombosis. Female gender, history of heart failure or left ventricular ejection fraction 1 mg/dL) of C-reactive protein (CRP) were independently associated with left atrial SEC/thrombosis. A score composed by these factors (denominated HIS [Heart Failure, Inflammation, and female Sex]) showed a sensitivity of 79% and a specificity of 60% (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.695, P = 0.002) in identifying patients with a positive transesophageal echo; traditional risk scores did not perform as well. In patients with persistent AF and suboptimal anticoagulation, a risk score composed by history of heart failure, high CRP, and female gender identifies patients at high risk of left atrial SEC/thrombosis when its value is >1. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cardiovascular risk of patients with gout seen at rheumatology clinics following a structured assessment.

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Andrés, Mariano; Bernal, José Antonio; Sivera, Francisca; Quilis, Neus; Carmona, Loreto; Vela, Paloma; Pascual, Eliseo

2017-07-01

Gout-associated cardiovascular (CV) risk relates to comorbidities and crystal-led inflammation. The aim was to estimate the CV risk by prediction tools in new patients with gout and to assess whether ultrasonographic carotid changes are present in patients without high CV risk. Cross-sectional study. Consecutive new patients with crystal-proven gout underwent a structured CV consultation, including CV events, risk factors and two risk prediction tools-the Systematic COronary Evaluation (SCORE) and the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). CV risk was stratified according to current European guidelines. Carotid ultrasound (cUS) was performed in patients with less than very high CV risk. The presence of carotid plaques was studied depending on the SCORE and FHS by the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating curves. 237 new patients with gout were recruited. CV stratification by scores showed a predominance of very high (95 patients, 40.1%) and moderate (72 patients, 30.5%) risk levels. cUS was performed in 142 patients, finding atheroma plaques in 66 (46.5%, 95% CI 37.8 to 54.2). Following cUS findings, patients classified as very high risk increased from 40.1% up to 67.9% (161/237 patients). SCORE and FHS predicted moderately (AUC 0.711 and 0.683, respectively) the presence of atheroma plaques at cUS. The majority of patients presenting with gout may be at very high CV risk, indicating the need for initiating optimal prevention strategies at this stage. Risk prediction tools appear to underestimate the presence of carotid plaque in patients with gout. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Sex Differences in Demographics, Risk Factors, Presentation, and Noninvasive Testing in Stable Outpatients with Suspected Coronary Artery Disease: Insights from the PROMISE Trial

Science.gov (United States)

Hemal, Kshipra; Pagidipati, Neha J.; Coles, Adrian; Dolor, Rowena J.; Mark, Daniel B.; Pellikka, Patricia A.; Hoffmann, Udo; Litwin, Sheldon E.; Daubert, Melissa A.; Shah, Svati H.; Ariani, Kevin; Bullock-Palmer, Renee; Martinez, Beth; Lee, Kerry L.; Douglas, Pamela S.

2016-01-01

STRUCTURED ABSTRACT Objectives To determine whether presentation, risk assessment, testing choices, and results differ by sex in stable symptomatic outpatients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Background Although established CAD presentations differ by sex, little is known about stable, suspected CAD. Methods Characteristics of 10,003 men and women in the Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain (PROMISE) trial were compared using chi-square and Wilcoxon rank sum tests. Sex differences in test selection and predictors of test positivity were examined using logistic regression. Results Women were older (62.4 years vs. 59.0) and more likely to be hypertensive (66.6% vs. 63.2%), dyslipidemic (68.9% vs. 66.3%), and to have a family history of premature CAD (34.6% vs. 29.3) (all p-values<0.005). Women were less likely to smoke (45.6% vs. 57.0%; p<0.001), while diabetes prevalence was similar (21.8% vs. 21.0%; p=0.30). Chest pain was the primary symptom in 73.2% of women vs. 72.3% of men (p=0.30) and was characterized as “crushing/pressure/squeezing/tightness” in 52.5% of women vs. 46.2% of men (p<0.001). Compared to men, all risk scores characterized women as lower risk, and providers were more likely to characterize women as having low (<30%) pre-test probability for CAD (40.7% vs. 34.1%; p<0.001). Compared with men, women were more often referred to imaging tests (adjusted OR 1.21; 95% CI 1.01–1.44) than non-imaging tests. Women were less likely to have a positive test (9.7% vs. 15.1%; p<0.001). Although univariate predictors of test positivity were similar, in multivariable models, age, BMI, and Framingham risk score were predictive of a positive test in women, while Framingham and Diamond and Forrester risk scores were predictive in men. Conclusion Patient sex influences the entire diagnostic pathway for possible CAD, from baseline risk factors and presentation to noninvasive test outcomes. These differences highlight the

Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Ruijun; Shen, Haipeng; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Penglian; Liu, Gaifen; Wang, Yilong; Li, Hao; Singhal, Aneesh B; Wang, Yongjun

2014-07-25

Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common and often serious complication after stroke. Although several risk factors for post-stroke GIB have been identified, no reliable or validated scoring system is currently available to predict GIB after acute stroke in routine clinical practice or clinical trials. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk model (acute ischemic stroke associated gastrointestinal bleeding score, the AIS-GIB score) to predict in-hospital GIB after acute ischemic stroke. The AIS-GIB score was developed from data in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). Eligible patients in the CNSR were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and internal validation (40%) cohorts. External validation was performed using data from the prospective Chinese Intracranial Atherosclerosis Study (CICAS). Independent predictors of in-hospital GIB were obtained using multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort, and β-coefficients were used to generate point scoring system for the AIS-GIB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration, respectively. A total of 8,820, 5,882, and 2,938 patients were enrolled in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. The overall in-hospital GIB after AIS was 2.6%, 2.3%, and 1.5% in the derivation, internal, and external validation cohort, respectively. An 18-point AIS-GIB score was developed from the set of independent predictors of GIB including age, gender, history of hypertension, hepatic cirrhosis, peptic ulcer or previous GIB, pre-stroke dependence, admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale score, Glasgow Coma Scale score and stroke subtype (Oxfordshire). The AIS-GIB score showed good discrimination in the derivation (0.79; 95% CI, 0.764-0.825), internal (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82) and external (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.82) validation cohorts

Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

2017-09-01

We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The New York State risk score for predicting in-hospital/30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Walford, Gary; Jacobs, Alice K; Berger, Peter B; Holmes, David R; Stamato, Nicholas J; Sharma, Samin; King, Spencer B

2013-06-01

This study sought to develop a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk score for in-hospital/30-day mortality. Risk scores are simplified linear scores that provide clinicians with quick estimates of patients' short-term mortality rates for informed consent and to determine the appropriate intervention. Earlier PCI risk scores were based on in-hospital mortality. However, for PCI, a substantial percentage of patients die within 30 days of the procedure after discharge. New York's Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital/30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing PCI in 2010, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that estimates mortality rates. The score was validated by applying it to 2009 New York PCI data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the score to predict complications and length of stay. A total of 54,223 patients were used to develop the risk score. There are 11 risk factors that make up the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 9, and the highest total score is 34. The score was validated based on patients undergoing PCI in the previous year, and accurately predicted mortality for all patients as well as patients who recently suffered a myocardial infarction (MI). The PCI risk score developed here enables clinicians to estimate in-hospital/30-day mortality very quickly and quite accurately. It accurately predicts mortality for patients undergoing PCI in the previous year and for MI patients, and is also moderately related to perioperative complications and length of stay. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Data on coronary artery calcium score performance and cardiovascular risk reclassification across gender and ethnicities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marat Fudim

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The current guidelines recommend the new risk score, Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease score (ASCVD, to assess an individual׳s risk of future cardiovascular disease (CVD events. No data exist on the predictive utility of ASCVD score with the incremental value of coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS across ethnicities and gender. Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA is a population based study (n=6814 of White (38%, Black (28%, Chinese (22% and Hispanic (12% subjects, aged 45–84 years, free from clinical cardiovascular disease. We performed a post-hoc analysis of 6742 participants (mean age 62, 53% female from the MESA cohort. We evaluated the predictive accuracy for the ASCVD score for each participant in accord with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines using pooled cohort equations. Similar to the publication by Fudim et al. “The Metabolic Syndrome, Coronary Artery Calcium Score and Cardiovascular Risk Reclassification” [1] the analytic properties of models incorporating the ASCVD score with and without CACS were compared for cardiovascular disease CVD prediction. Here the analysis focused on ASCVD score (with and without CACS performance across gender and ethnicities. Keywords: Risk stratification, Coronary calcium scoring, Gender, Ethnicity, MESA, {C}{C}

Screening applicants for risk of poor academic performance: a novel scoring system using preadmission grade point averages and graduate record examination scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Luce, David

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an effective screening tool for identifying physician assistant (PA) program applicants at highest risk for poor academic performance. Prior to reviewing applications for the class of 2009, a retrospective analysis of preadmission data took place for the classes of 2006, 2007, and 2008. A single composite score was calculated for each student who matriculated (number of subjects, N=228) incorporating the total undergraduate grade point average (UGPA), the science GPA (SGPA), and the three component Graduate Record Examination (GRE) scores: verbal (GRE-V), quantitative (GRE-Q), analytical (GRE-A). Individual applicant scores for each of the five parameters were ranked in descending quintiles. Each applicant's five quintile scores were then added, yielding a total quintile score ranging from 25, which indicated an excellent performance, to 5, which indicated poorer performance. Thirteen of the 228 students had academic difficulty (dismissal, suspension, or one-quarter on academic warning or probation). Twelve of the 13 students having academic difficulty had a preadmission total quintile score 12 (range, 6-14). In response to this descriptive analysis, when selecting applicants for the class of 2009, the admissions committee used the total quintile score for screening applicants for interviews. Analysis of correlations in preadmission, graduate, and postgraduate performance data for the classes of 2009-2013 will continue and may help identify those applicants at risk for academic difficulty. Establishing a threshold total quintile score of applicant GPA and GRE scores may significantly decrease the number of entering PA students at risk for poor academic performance.

Development of an interstitial cystitis risk score for bladder permeability.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura E Lamb

Full Text Available Interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome (IC is a multifactorial syndrome of severe pelvic and genitalia pain and compromised urinary function; a subset of IC patients present with Hunner's lesions or ulcers on their bladder walls (UIC. UIC is diagnosed by cystoscopy, which may be quite painful. The objective of this study was to determine if a calculated Bladder Permeability Defect Risk Score (BP-RS based on non-invasive urinary cytokines could discriminate UIC patients from controls and IC patients without Hunner's ulcers.A national crowdsourcing effort targeted IC patients and age-matched controls to provide urine samples. Urinary cytokine levels for GRO, IL-6, and IL-8 were determined using a Luminex assay.We collected 448 urine samples from 46 states consisting of 153 IC patients (147 female, 6 male, of which 54 UIC patients (50 females, 4 male, 159 female controls, and 136 male controls. A defined BP-RS was calculated to classify UIC, or a bladder permeability defect etiology, with 89% validity.The BP-RS Score quantifies UIC risk, indicative of a bladder permeability defect etiology in a subset of IC patients. The Bladder Permeability Defect Risk Score is the first validated urine biomarker assay for interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome.

Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-03-01

While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (pbleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (pbleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all pbleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all pbleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major bleeding in AF patients, when compared to the HAS-BLED score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association of a Dietary Score with Incident Type 2 Diabetes: The Dietary-Based Diabetes-Risk Score (DDS.

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Ligia J Dominguez

Full Text Available Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS, which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN ("Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" longitudinal study.We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points. Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR of T2DM.We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25-39 points vs. low (11-24 category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40-60 vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019.The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve dietary habits of subjects at high risk of T2DM

Impact of Individual and Neighborhood Factors on Cardiovascular Risk in White Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Women and Men.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohn, Tanya; Miller, Arlene; Fogg, Louis; Braun, Lynne T; Coke, Lola

2017-04-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality for adults in the US, regardless of ethnicity. A cross-sectional correlational design was used to describe and compare CVD risk and cardiac mortality in White Hispanic and non-Hispanic women and men. Data from 3,317 individuals (1,523 women and 1,794 men) hospitalized for non-cardiac causes during 2012-2013, and data from the 2010 United States Census were included. The sex-specific 10-year Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score (FRS-10) was used to estimate long-term risk for major cardiac events. Approximately three-quarters of the sample was White Hispanic. FRS-10 scores were generally low, but a high prevalence of risk factors not included in the standard FRS-10 scoring formula was seen. White Hispanic women had significantly lower estimated CVD risk scores compared to White Hispanic and non-Hispanic men despite higher non-FRS-10 risks. Neighborhood median household income had a significant negative relationship and Hispanic neighborhood concentration had a significant positive relationship with cardiac mortality. Hispanic concentration was the only predictor of estimated CVD risk in a multilevel model. CVD risk assessment tools that are calibrated for ethnic groups and socioeconomic status may be more appropriate for Hispanic individuals than the FRS-10. Neighborhood-level factors should be included in clinical cardiac assessment in addition to individual characteristics and behavioral risks. Researchers should continue to seek additional risk factors that may contribute to or protect against CVD in order to close the gap between estimated CVD risk and actual cardiac mortality for Hispanics in the US. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The New York risk score for in-hospital and 30-day mortality for coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Wechsler, Andrew; Jordan, Desmond; Lahey, Stephen J; Culliford, Alfred T; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R

2013-01-01

Simplified risk scores for coronary artery bypass graft surgery are frequently in lieu of more complicated statistical models and are valuable for informed consent and choice of intervention. Previous risk scores have been based on in-hospital mortality, but a substantial number of patients die within 30 days of the procedure. These deaths should also be accounted for, so we have developed a risk score based on in-hospital and 30-day mortality. New York's Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital and 30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in 2009, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that provides estimated in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates for different values of the score. The accuracy of the risk score in predicting mortality was tested. This score was also validated by applying it to 2008 New York coronary artery bypass graft data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the risk score to predict complications and length of stay. The overall in-hospital and 30-day mortality rate for the 10,148 patients in the study was 1.79%. There are seven risk factors comprising the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 5, and the highest possible total score is 23. The score accurately predicted mortality in 2009 as well as in 2008, and was strongly correlated with complications and length of stay. The risk score is a simple way of estimating short-term mortality that accurately predicts mortality in the year the model was developed as well as in the previous year. Perioperative complications and length of stay are also well predicted by the risk score. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Surgical Site Infection Risk Score (SSIRS: A Model to Predict the Risk of Surgical Site Infections.

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Carl van Walraven

Full Text Available Surgical site infections (SSI are an important cause of peri-surgical morbidity with risks that vary extensively between patients and surgeries. Quantifying SSI risk would help identify candidates most likely to benefit from interventions to decrease the risk of SSI.We randomly divided all surgeries recorded in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program from 2010 into a derivation and validation population. We used multivariate logistic regression to determine the independent association of patient and surgical covariates with the risk of any SSI (including superficial, deep, and organ space SSI within 30 days of surgery. To capture factors particular to specific surgeries, we developed a surgical risk score specific to all surgeries having a common first 3 numbers of their CPT code.Derivation (n = 181 894 and validation (n = 181 146 patients were similar for all demographics, past medical history, and surgical factors. Overall SSI risk was 3.9%. The SSI Risk Score (SSIRS found that risk increased with patient factors (smoking, increased body mass index, certain comorbidities (peripheral vascular disease, metastatic cancer, chronic steroid use, recent sepsis, and operative characteristics (surgical urgency; increased ASA class; longer operation duration; infected wounds; general anaesthesia; performance of more than one procedure; and CPT score. In the validation population, the SSIRS had good discrimination (c-statistic 0.800, 95% CI 0.795-0.805 and calibration.SSIRS can be calculated using patient and surgery information to estimate individual risk of SSI for a broad range of surgery types.

Unsupervised deep learning applied to breast density segmentation and mammographic risk scoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kallenberg, Michiel Gijsbertus J.; Petersen, Peter Kersten; Nielsen, Mads

2016-01-01

Mammographic risk scoring has commonly been automated by extracting a set of handcrafted features from mammograms, and relating the responses directly or indirectly to breast cancer risk. We present a method that learns a feature hierarchy from unlabeled data. When the learned features are used...... as the input to a simple classifier, two different tasks can be addressed: i) breast density segmentation, and ii) scoring of mammographic texture. The proposed model learns features at multiple scales. To control the models capacity a novel sparsity regularizer is introduced that incorporates both lifetime...... and population sparsity. We evaluated our method on three different clinical datasets. Our state-of-the-art results show that the learned breast density scores have a very strong positive relationship with manual ones, and that the learned texture scores are predictive of breast cancer. The model is easy...

Cardiovascular risk profile in patients with myelopathy associated with HTLV-1.

Science.gov (United States)

Prado, Fabio Luís Silva do; Prado, Renata; Ladeia, Ana Marice Teixeira

HAM/TSP (HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis) is a slowly progressive disease, characterized by a chronic spastic paraparesis. It is not known if the disease carries an independent risk for cardiovascular disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cardiovascular risk profile related to HAM/TSP and compare it with the general population. This was a cross-sectional study, with a control group. HAM/TSP patients were evaluated using cardiovascular risk scores (ASCVD RISK, SCORE and Framingham) and inflammatory markers (ultrasensitive CRP and IL-6), and compared with a control group of healthy individuals. We also evaluated the correlation between cardiovascular risk and the functional status of patients with HAM/TSP evaluated by the FIM scale. Eighty percent of patients in this study were females, mean age of 51 years (11.3). The control group showed an increased cardiovascular event risk in 10 years when ASCVD was analyzed (cardiovascular risk ≥7.5% in 10 years seen in 43% of patients in the control group vs. 23% of patients with HAM/TSP; p=0.037). There was no difference in ultrasensitive CRP or IL-6 values between the groups, even when groups were stratified into low and high risk. There was no correlation between the functional status of HAM/TSP patients and the cardiovascular risk. In this study, the cardiovascular risk profile of patients with HAM/TSP was better than the risk of the control group. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

A clinically useful risk-score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens; Ross, Michael

2014-01-01

baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 nadir, hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease predicted CKD and were included in the risk score (Figure 1). The incidence of CKD in those at low, medium and high risk was 0.8/1000 PYFU (95% CI 0.6-1.0), 5.6 (95% CI 4.5-6.7) and 37.4 (95% CI 34.......0-40.7) (Figure 1). The risk score showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistic 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.93). The number needed to harm (NNTH) in patients starting ATV or LPV/r was 1395, 142 or 20, respectively, among those with low, medium or high risk. NNTH were 603, 61 and 9 for those with a low, medium...

Risk of poor neonatal outcome at term after medically assisted reproduction: a propensity score-matched study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ensing, Sabine; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Roseboom, Tessa J; Repping, Sjoerd; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J; Ravelli, Anita C J

2015-08-01

To study risk of birth asphyxia and related morbidity among term singletons born after medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Population cohort study. Not applicable. A total of 1,953,932 term singleton pregnancies selected from a national registry for 1999-2011. None. Primary outcome Apgar score score score matching analysis was performed with matching on multiple maternal baseline covariates (maternal age, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, parity, year of birth, and preexistent diseases). Each MAR pregnancy was matched to three SC controls. Relative to SC, the MAR singletons had an increased risk of adverse neonatal outcomes including Apgar score score matching, the risk of an Apgar score Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular investigations of airline pilots with excessive cardiovascular risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Wirawan, I Made Ady; Aldington, Sarah; Griffiths, Robin F; Ellis, Chris J; Larsen, Peter D

2013-06-01

This study examined the prevalence of airline pilots who have an excessive cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score according to the New Zealand Guideline Group (NZGG) Framingham-based Risk Chart and describes their cardiovascular risk assessment and investigations. A cross-sectional study was performed among 856 pilots employed in an Oceania based airline. Pilots with elevated CVD risk that had been previously evaluated at various times over the previous 19 yr were reviewed retrospectively from the airline's medical records, and the subsequent cardiovascular investigations were then described. There were 30 (3.5%) pilots who were found to have 5-yr CVD risk score of 10-15% or higher. Of the 29 pilots who had complete cardiac investigations data, 26 pilots underwent exercise electrocardiography (ECG), 2 pilots progressed directly to coronary angiograms and 1 pilot with abnormal echocardiogram was not examined further. Of the 26 pilots, 7 had positive or borderline exercise tests, all of whom subsequently had angiograms. One patient with a negative exercise test also had a coronary angiogram. Of the 9 patients who had coronary angiograms as a consequence of screening, 5 had significant disease that required treatment and 4 had either trivial disease or normal coronary arteries. The current approach to investigate excessive cardiovascular risk in pilots relies heavily on exercise electrocardiograms as a diagnostic test, and may not be optimal either to detect disease or to protect pilots from unnecessary invasive procedures. A more comprehensive and accurate cardiac investigation algorithm to assess excessive CVD risk in pilots is required.

Recurrence risk of low Apgar score among term singletons: a population-based cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ensing, Sabine; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Mol, Ben W. J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.

2014-01-01

To examine the risk of recurrence of low Apgar score in a subsequent term singleton pregnancy. Population-based cohort study. The Netherlands. A total of 190,725 women with two subsequent singleton term live births between 1999 and 2007. We calculated the recurrence risk of low Apgar score after

Feasibility and reliability of a newly developed antenatal risk score card in routine care

NARCIS (Netherlands)

E. Birnie; E.A.P. Steegers; Drs. H.W. Torij; M.J. Veen; J. Poeran; G.J. Bonsel

2015-01-01

A population-based cross-sectional study (feasibility) and a cohort study (inter-rater reliability) to study in routine care the feasibility and inter-rater reliability of the Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction risk score card (R4U), a new semi-quantitative score card for use during the antenatal

Development and validation of a risk score to predict the probability of postoperative vomiting in pediatric patients: the VPOP score.

Science.gov (United States)

Bourdaud, Nathalie; Devys, Jean-Michel; Bientz, Jocelyne; Lejus, Corinne; Hebrard, Anne; Tirel, Olivier; Lecoutre, Damien; Sabourdin, Nada; Nivoche, Yves; Baujard, Catherine; Nikasinovic, Lydia; Orliaguet, Gilles A

2014-09-01

Few data are available in the literature on risk factors for postoperative vomiting (POV) in children. The aim of the study was to establish independent risk factors for POV and to construct a pediatric specific risk score to predict POV in children. Characteristics of 2392 children operated under general anesthesia were recorded. The dataset was randomly split into an evaluation set (n = 1761), analyzed with a multivariate analysis including logistic regression and backward stepwise procedure, and a validation set (n = 450), used to confirm the accuracy of prediction using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROCAUC ), to optimize sensitivity and specificity. The overall incidence of POV was 24.1%. Five independent risk factors were identified: stratified age (>3 and 13 years: adjusted OR 2.46 [95% CI 1.75-3.45]; ≥6 and ≤13 years: aOR 3.09 [95% CI 2.23-4.29]), duration of anesthesia (aOR 1.44 [95% IC 1.06-1.96]), surgery at risk (aOR 2.13 [95% IC 1.49-3.06]), predisposition to POV (aOR 1.81 [95% CI 1.43-2.31]), and multiple opioids doses (aOR 2.76 [95% CI 2.06-3.70], P risk score ranged from 0 to 6. The model yielded a ROCAUC of 0.73 [95% CI 0.67-0.78] when applied to the validation dataset. Independent risk factors for POV were identified and used to create a new score to predict which children are at high risk of POV. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Waist circumference below metabolic syndrome harmonizing criteria is associated with increased cardiovascular risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Konnov, M V; Dobordzhinidze, L M; Deev, A D; Gratsianskiĭ, N A

2010-01-01

To test the hypothesis that waist circumference (WC) just below Joint Interim Statement ([JIS], 2009) abdominal obesity thresholds can be associated with worse risk factors profile than smaller WC. In a study of risk factors in families of patients with "premature" coronary heart disease (CHD) we examined 229 persons without CHD with body mass index (BMI) 18.5 kg/m and WC metabolic syndrome (MS JIS criteria, 2009). High BP was defined as prehypertension (PreHT) or hypertension (HT) and named PreHT/HT. In persons aged 16-17 years we used criteria 4 th report of National High BP Education Program Working Group on High BP in Children and Adolescents, in persons 18 years - 7 th Joint National Committee Report (USA). TG 1.7 mmol/l, serum basal glucose 5.6 mmol/l were defined high, HDL C <1.0 mmol/l (men), <1.3 mmol/l (women) - low. Framingham risk score of cardiovascular disease (CVD) was calculated for persons aged 30 years. Factors associated with various ranges of WC were selected by logistical regression univariate analysis. Odds ratios were compared in 2 groups of WC distribution: top ( 83 cm men, 73 cm women - intermediate [I] WC) vs 2 lower (<83 cm men; <73 cm women) tertiles. Analysis was carried out in 2 age groups according to median age: 16-26 years (n=115, 23.5% with IWC) and 27-62 years (n=114, 50.0 % with IWC). Persons aged 16-26 years with IWC had significantly higher risk to have high TG, low HDL C and PreHT/HT than those with smaller WC: odds ratios 7.53 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.69-33.6; p=0.008), 3.56 (95% CI 1.35-9.36; p=0.010) and 2.22 (95% CI 1.13-4.36; p=0.020), respectively. No significant relationship was found between IWC and registered risk factors in age group 27-62 years. In persons aged 30-62 years (n=90, 51.1% with IWC) IWC was related to presence of 5% Framingham risk score: OR vs smaller WC 2.59 (95% CI 1.01-6.67; p=0.048). Among younger consorts and adult children of patients with "premature" CHD persons with WC 83 - <94 cm (men

Pre-operative risk scores for the prediction of outcome in elderly people who require emergency surgery

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Bates Tom

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The decision on whether to operate on a sick elderly person with an intra-abdominal emergency is one of the most difficult in general surgery. A predictive risk-score would be of great value in this situation. Methods A Medline search was performed to identify those predictive risk-scores relevant to sick elderly patients in whom emergency surgery might be life-saving. Results Many of the risk scores for surgical patients include the operative findings or require tests which are not available in the acute situation. Most of the relevant studies include younger patients and elective surgery. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score and Hardman Index are specific to ruptured aortic aneurysm while the Boey Score and the Hacetteppe Score are specific to perforated peptic ulcer. The Reiss Index and Fitness Score can be used pre-operatively if the elements of the score can be completed in time. The ASA score, which includes a significant element of subjective clinical judgement, can be augmented with factors such as age and urgency of surgery but no test has a negative predictive value sufficient to recommend against surgical intervention without clinical input. Conclusion Risk scores may be helpful in sick elderly patients needing emergency abdominal surgery but an experienced clinical opinion is still essential.

Risk-Assessment Score and Patient Optimization as Cost Predictors for Ventral Hernia Repair.

Science.gov (United States)

Saleh, Sherif; Plymale, Margaret A; Davenport, Daniel L; Roth, John Scott

2018-04-01

Ventral hernia repair (VHR) is associated with complications that significantly increase healthcare costs. This study explores the associations between hospital costs for VHR and surgical complication risk-assessment scores, need for cardiac or pulmonary evaluation, and smoking or obesity counseling. An IRB-approved retrospective study of patients having undergone open VHR over 3 years was performed. Ventral Hernia Risk Score (VHRS) for surgical site occurrence and surgical site infection, and the Ventral Hernia Working Group grade were calculated for each case. Also recorded were preoperative cardiology or pulmonary evaluations, smoking cessation and weight reduction counseling, and patient goal achievement. Hospital costs were obtained from the cost accounting system for the VHR hospitalization stratified by major clinical cost drivers. Univariate regression analyses were used to compare the predictive power of the risk scores. Multivariable analysis was performed to develop a cost prediction model. The mean cost of index VHR hospitalization was $20,700. Total and operating room costs correlated with increasing CDC wound class, VHRS surgical site infection score, VHRS surgical site occurrence score, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, and Ventral Hernia Working Group (all p variance in costs (p optimization significantly reduced direct and operating room costs (p < 0.05). Cardiac evaluation was associated with increased costs. Ventral hernia repair hospital costs are more accurately predicted by CDC wound class than VHR risk scores. A straightforward 6-factor model predicted most cost variation for VHR. Copyright © 2018 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Metabolic profile and cardiovascular risk factors among Latin American HIV-infected patients receiving HAART

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P Cahn

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Determine the prevalence of metabolic abnormalities (MA and estimate the 10-year risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD among Latin American HIV-infected patients receiving highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART. METHODS: A cohort study to evaluate MA and treatment practices to reduce CVD has been conducted in seven Latin American countries. Adult HIV-infected patients with at least one month of HAART were enrolled. Baseline data are presented in this analysis. RESULTS: A total of 4,010 patients were enrolled. Mean age (SD was 41.9 (10 years; median duration of HAART was 35 (IQR: 10-51 months, 44% received protease inhibitors. The prevalence of dyslipidemia and metabolic syndrome was 80.2% and 20.2%, respectively. The overall 10-year risk of CVD, as measured by the Framingham risk score (FRF, was 10.4 (24.7. Longer exposure to HAART was documented in patients with dyslipidemia, metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The FRF score increased with duration of HAART. Male patients had more dyslipidemia, high blood pressure, smoking habit and higher 10-year CVD than females. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional risk factors for CVD are prevalent in this setting leading to intermediate 10-year risk of CVD. Modification of these risk factors through education and intervention programs are needed to reduce CVD.

75 FR 54020 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-03

... Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score Requirements AGENCY... acceptable risks of financial loss, not unacceptable risks.\\2\\ \\2\\ While the Federal Credit Reform Act of..., specific to each applicant. Lower credit scores indicate greater risk of default on any new credit extended...

NCEP ATP III dan Framingham score

OpenAIRE

Hasan, Refli; Fahila, Reny

2016-01-01

Laporan ini merupakan Program Pendidikan Kolesterol National yang diperbaharui yaitu pedoman klinis untuk melakukan pengujian kolesterol dan manajemen. ATP III dibuat berdasarkan bukti dan laporan ekstensif yang akan menjadi referensi dan rekomendasi ilmiah. Laporan ATP III dapat dijadikan pedoman untuk pemberian terapi penurun kolesterol yang intensif dalam praktek. Pedoman ini hanya sebagai informasi , tidak dapat mempengaruhi secara mutlak dalam penilaian klinis dokter yang akhirnya menent...

Comparison of Risk Scores for Prediction of Complications following Aortic Valve Replacement.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Choi, David Hyun-Min; Haydock, David; Gamble, Greg; Stewart, Ralph; Ruygrok, Peter

2015-06-01

Risk models play an important role in stratification of patients for cardiac surgery, but their prognostic utilities for post-operative complications are rarely studied. We compared the EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II, Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Score and an Australasian model (Aus-AVR Score) for predicting morbidities after aortic valve replacement (AVR), and also evaluated seven STS complications models in this context. We retrospectively calculated risk scores for 620 consecutive patients undergoing isolated AVR at Auckland City Hospital during 2005-2012, assessing their discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Amongst mortality scores, the EuroSCORE was the best at discriminating stroke (c-statistic 0.845); the EuroSCORE II at deep sternal wound infection (c=0.748); and the STS Score at composite morbidity or mortality (c=0.666), renal failure (c=0.634), ventilation>24 hours (c=0.732), return to theatre (c=0.577) and prolonged hospital stay >14 days post-operatively (c=0.707). The individual STS complications models had a marginally higher c-statistic (c=0.634-0.846) for all complications except mediastinitis, and had good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value 0.123-0.915) for all complications. The STS Score was best overall at discriminating post-operative complications and their composite for AVR. All STS complications models except for deep sternal wound infection had good discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Copyright © 2014 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ten-year cardiovascular risk assessment in university students.

Science.gov (United States)

Uvacsek, Martina; Kneffel, Zs; Tóth, M; Johnson, A W; Vehrs, P; Myrer, J W; Hager, R

2014-09-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is responsible for more than half of all deaths in the European region. The aim of the study was to compare body composition, blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), family history, activity behaviors, and the 10-year risk of having a heart attack between 166 university students (21.62 ± 2.59 yrs) from Utah (USA) and 198 students (22.11 ± 2.51 yrs) from Hungary. Ninety-two percent of the Hungarian students and 100% of the Utah students had an estimated 10-year Framingham risk score of 1% or less. The high prevalence of low risk was primarily due to the young age of study participants, healthy body composition and non-smoking behavior. Hungarians who had higher 10-year risk of heart attack had significantly higher waist hip ratio (WHR), TC, diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and were smokers compared to those Hungarians with lower risk. The self-reported physical activity levels between the two groups of students were not different. In conclusion the young men and women who participated in this study were, for the most part healthy; however the smoking habits and the lower physical activity of the Hungarian students likely elevated their risk of CVD.

A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

A risk-scoring scheme for suicide attempts among patients with bipolar disorder in a Thai patient cohort

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patumanond J

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Chidchanok Ruengorn1,2, Kittipong Sanichwankul3, Wirat Niwatananun2, Suwat Mahatnirunkul3, Wanida Pumpaisalchai3, Jayanton Patumanond11Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 2Department of Pharmaceutical Care, Faculty of Pharmacy, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 3Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital, Chiang Mai, ThailandBackground: In Thailand, risk factors associated with suicide attempts in bipolar disorder (BD are rarely investigated, nor has a specific risk-scoring scheme to assist in the identification of BD patients at risk for attempting suicide been proposed.Objective: To develop a simple risk-scoring scheme to identify patients with BD who may be at risk for attempting suicide.Methods: Medical files of 489 patients diagnosed with BD at Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital between October 2006 and May 2009 were reviewed. Cases included BD patients hospitalized due to attempted suicide (n = 58, and seven controls were selected (per suicide case among BD in- and out-patients who did not attempt suicide, with patients being visited the same day or within 1 week of case study (n = 431. Broad sociodemographic and clinical factors were gathered and analyzed using multivariate logistic regression, to obtain a set of risk factors. Scores for each indicator were weighted, assigned, and summed to create a total risk score, which was divided into low, moderate, and high-risk suicide attempt groups.Results: Six statistically significant indicators associated with suicide attempts were included in the risk-scoring scheme: depression, psychotic symptom(s, number of previous suicide attempts, stressful life event(s, medication adherence, and BD treatment years. A total risk score (possible range -1.5 to 11.5 explained an 88.6% probability of suicide attempts based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Likelihood ratios of suicide attempts with low risk scores (below 2

Low amniotic fluid index in high risk pregnancy and poor apgar score at birth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sultana, S.; Akhtar, K.A.K.

2008-01-01

To determine the accuracy of antepartum Amniotic Fluid Index (AFI) of 5 cm was labeled as predictor of good outcome at birth. The subjects in both the groups were demographically matched and fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Apgar score was calculated at 5 minutes of birth. The newborns, with Apgar score 6 were labeled as healthy. AFI was compared with Apgar score, using Chi-square and a p-value was calculated to determine the statistical significance. Sensitivity, specificity, efficiency and the predictive values of AFI at a cut off point of < 5 cm as a predictor of adverse outcome at birth (Apgar score of < 6 at 5 minutes of birth) in high-risk pregnancy were calculated. Only 8 neonates of 50 women with low AFI had low Apgar score. Similarly, 6 neonates of 50 women with normal AFI had poor Apgar score. The diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and efficiency of AFI as test were 57.1%, 51.3%, 16%, 88% and 52% respectively. Low AFI is a poor predictor of adverse outcome for high-risk term patients. AFI is not a good screening test for high-risk pregnant women at term for birth of an infant with low Apgar score. (author)

Application of the FOUR Score in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Risk Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Braksick, Sherri A; Hemphill, J Claude; Mandrekar, Jay; Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Fugate, Jennifer E

2018-06-01

The Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a validated scale describing the essentials of a coma examination, including motor response, eye opening and eye movements, brainstem reflexes, and respiratory pattern. We incorporated the FOUR Score into the existing ICH Score and evaluated its accuracy of risk assessment in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Consecutive patients admitted to our institution from 2009 to 2012 with spontaneous ICH were reviewed. The ICH Score was calculated using patient age, hemorrhage location, hemorrhage volume, evidence of intraventricular extension, and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). The FOUR Score was then incorporated into the ICH Score as a substitute for the GCS (ICH Score FS ). The ability of the 2 scores to predict mortality at 1 month was then compared. In total, 274 patients met the inclusion criteria. The median age was 73 years (interquartile range 60-82) and 138 (50.4%) were male. Overall mortality at 1 month was 28.8% (n = 79). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .91 for the ICH Score and .89 for the ICH Score FS . For ICH Scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, 1-month mortality was 4.2%, 29.9%, 62.5%, 95.0%, and 100%. In the ICH Score FS model, mortality was 10.7%, 26.5%, 64.5%, 88.9%, and 100% for scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. The ICH Score and the ICH Score FS predict 1-month mortality with comparable accuracy. As the FOUR Score provides additional clinical information regarding patient status, it may be a reasonable substitute for the GCS into the ICH Score. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[New definition of metabolic syndrome: does it have the same cardiovascular risk?].

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Rodilla, E; González, C; Costa, J A; Pascual, J M

2007-02-01

The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) has recently published the new criteria for the diagnosis of metabolic syndrome. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical characteristics and cardiovascular risk of the new patients with MS compared to the previous National Cholesterol Education Program ATP III definition, its differential characteristics and cardiovascular risk. Cross sectional study in a hypertension clinic. Coronary risk was calculated (Framingham function NCEP-ATP III) and other cardiovascular markers, urinary albumin excretion (UAE in mg/24 hours) and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP) were assessed. A total 2,404 patients were evaluated, 1,901 non-diabetic and 503 diabetic hypertensive subjects. The non-diabetics 726 (38.2%) had MS with the previous NCEP ATP-III definition, the number increasing sharply to 1,091 (57.4%) with the new IDF definition. The proportion did not increase in diabetics (93% vs. 92%). Concordance in the diagnosis was 78% in non-diabetics and 91% in diabetics. The new patients had a similar coronary risk (Framingham) but lower values of other cardiovascular markers: logUAE 1.00 (0.49) mg/24 hours vs. 1.06 (0.55) mg/24 hours (p = 0.003), and CRP 1.9 (2.7) mg/L vs. 2.5 (3.2) mg/L (median, interquartile range; p < 0.001). The new IDF definition of MS increases the number of patients with MS. The new patients have a similar coronary risk (Framingham) but the new parameters used to assess cardiovascular risk (UAE and CRP) were lower. The relationship of the new definition of MS and cardiovascular risk remains to be defined.

The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

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Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-10-01

The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the performance of existing non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background The high burden and rising incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in resource constrained countries necessitates implementation of robust and pragmatic primary and secondary prevention strategies. Many current CVD management guidelines recommend absolute cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment as a clinically sound guide to preventive and treatment strategies. Development of non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms enable absolute risk assessment in resource constrained countries. The objective of this review is to evaluate the performance of existing non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms using the benchmarks for clinically useful CV risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Methods A literature search to identify non-laboratory based risk prediction algorithms was performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Ovid Premier Nursing Journals Plus, and PubMed databases. The identified algorithms were evaluated using the benchmarks for clinically useful cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Results Five non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms were identified. The Gaziano and Framingham algorithms met the criteria for appropriateness of statistical methods used to derive the algorithms and endpoints. The Swedish Consultation, Framingham and Gaziano algorithms demonstrated good discrimination in derivation datasets. Only the Gaziano algorithm was externally validated where it had optimal discrimination. The Gaziano and WHO algorithms had chart formats which made them simple and user friendly for clinical application. Conclusion Both the Gaziano and Framingham non-laboratory based algorithms met most of the criteria outlined by Cooney and colleagues. External validation of the algorithms in diverse samples is needed to ascertain their performance and applicability to different populations and to enhance clinicians’ confidence in them. PMID:24373202

The comparison of cardiovascular risk scores using two methods of substituting missing risk factor data in patient medical records

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Dalton

2011-07-01

Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

Use of ABCD2 risk scoring system to determine the short-term stroke risk in patients presenting to emergency department with transient ischaemic attack

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozpolat, C.; Denizbasi, A.; Onur, O.; Eroglu, S.E.

2013-01-01

Objective: To determine the 3-day stroke risk of patients presenting to emergency department with transient ischaemic attack, and to evaluate the predictive value of ABCD2 (Age, Blood pressure, Clinical features, Duration of symptoms and Diabetes) score for these patients. Methods: The prospective study was conducted on patients with diagnosis of transient ischaemic attack who were divided into low (0-3 points), medium (4-5 points) and high (6-7 points) risk groups according to their ABCD2 scores. The sensitivity of the scoring system on estimation of the risk of stroke in 3 days was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curve. SPSS 15 was used for data analysis. Results: Of the 64 patients in the study, none of the low-risk group had stroke. Stroke was present in 4 of 33 (12.12%) medium-risk patients, while there were 4 in 18 (22.22%) in the high-risk group. Sensitivity and specificity of each ABCD2 score for 3rd day stroke risk was calculated. In the receiver operating curve generated by these calculations, the c statistics was determined as 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.86; p<0.01) and the most appropriate cut-off score to dichotomise the study group was determined as 4. Conclusions: In transient ischaemic attack patients with an ABCD2 score of four or higher had a markedly increased short-term stroke risk, while those with a lower score were quite safe. It is appropriate to hospitalise patients with a score of four or more and investigate for underlying cause and initiate treatment. (author)

Dietary factors and incident atrial fibrillation: the Framingham Heart Study123

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Jian; Johnson, Victor M; Sullivan, Lisa M; Jacques, Paul F; Magnani, Jared W; Lubitz, Steven A; Pandey, Shivda; Levy, Daniel; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Quatromoni, Paula A; Junyent, Mireia; Ordovas, Jose M; Benjamin, Emelia J

2011-01-01

Background: There have been conflicting reported associations between dietary factors and incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Objective: We evaluated associations between consumption of alcohol, caffeine, fiber, and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and incident AF in the Framingham Heart Study. Design: Participants without AF (n = 4526; 9640 examinations; mean age: 62 y; 56% women) from the original and offspring cohorts completed food-frequency questionnaires and were followed prospectively for 4 y. We examined the associations between dietary exposures and AF with Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: A total of 296 individuals developed AF (177 men, 119 women). In multivariable analyses, there were no significant associations between examined dietary exposures and AF risk. Hazard ratios (HRs) for increasing quartiles of dietary factors were as follows: for alcohol, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.5, 1.05), 0.85 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.18), and 1.12 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.51) (P for trend = 0.48); for caffeine, 0.84 (95% CI: 0.62, 1.15), 0.87 (95% CI: 0.64, 1.2), and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.7, 1.39) (P for trend = 0.84); for total fiber, 0.86 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.2), 0.64 (95% CI: 0.44, 0.92), and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.54, 1.2) (P for trend = 0.16); and for n−3 (omega-3) PUFAs, 1.11 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.54), 0.92 (95% CI: 0.65, 1.29), and 1.18 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.64) (P for trend = 0.57; quartile 1 was the reference group). In exploratory analyses, consumption of >4 servings of dark fish/wk (5 cases and 21 individuals at risk) was significantly associated with AF risk compared with the consumption of <1 serving of dark fish/wk (HR: 6.53; 95% CI: 2.65, 16.06; P < 0.0001). Conclusions: Consumption of alcohol, caffeine, fiber, and fish-derived PUFAs was not significantly associated with AF risk. The observed adverse association between the consumption of dark fish and AF merits further investigation. Our findings suggest that the dietary exposures examined convey limited attributable risk of AF in the

A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holme, Ingar; Pedersen, Terje R; Boman, Kurt

2012-01-01

BackgroundPrognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.ObjectivesTo develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk...

[Psychosis, cardiovascular risk and associated mortality: are we on the right track?].

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo Sánchez, Miguel; Fàbregas Escurriola, Mireia; Bergè Baquero, Daniel; Goday Arno, Albert; Vallès Callol, Joan Antoni

2014-01-01

Patients with psychotic disorders have a higher risk of early mortality. In addition to unnatural causes (accidents, suicide), death due to cardiovascular (CV) reasons is two to four times more prevalent in these patients than in the general population. This non-systematic review of MEDLINE aims to clarify the role of all the determining factors are involved. Psychotic disorders are related to unhealthy life habits such as smoking, poor diet and physical inactivity. Neuroleptic drugs have also been studied as triggers of obesity and metabolic syndrome. Therefore, psychotic patients seem predisposed to suffer from several of the «classic» CV risk factors. It is not surprising that their scores on the CV risk scales (Framingham, SCORE) are higher than the general population. We also found publications that showed poorer management of primary and secondary prevention of CV disease. In addition, some biochemical factors (plasma levels of cortisol, ACTH, homocysteine, PCR) may indicate a vulnerability in psychosis per se, as well as the findings on hyperglycemia and insulin resistance in psychotic "drug naive" patients. These "non-classical" factors could alter the validity of CV risk scales designed for the general population. Furthermore, antipsychotic drugs could control intrinsic factors of psychosis (they have shown to reduce global mortality), and their role in CV mortality is not clear. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. y SEA. All rights reserved.

CRISP: Catheterization RISk score for Pediatrics: A Report from the Congenital Cardiac Interventional Study Consortium (CCISC).

Science.gov (United States)

Nykanen, David G; Forbes, Thomas J; Du, Wei; Divekar, Abhay A; Reeves, Jaxk H; Hagler, Donald J; Fagan, Thomas E; Pedra, Carlos A C; Fleming, Gregory A; Khan, Danyal M; Javois, Alexander J; Gruenstein, Daniel H; Qureshi, Shakeel A; Moore, Phillip M; Wax, David H

2016-02-01

We sought to develop a scoring system that predicts the risk of serious adverse events (SAE's) for individual pediatric patients undergoing cardiac catheterization procedures. Systematic assessment of risk of SAE in pediatric catheterization can be challenging in view of a wide variation in procedure and patient complexity as well as rapidly evolving technology. A 10 component scoring system was originally developed based on expert consensus and review of the existing literature. Data from an international multi-institutional catheterization registry (CCISC) between 2008 and 2013 were used to validate this scoring system. In addition we used multivariate methods to further refine the original risk score to improve its predictive power of SAE's. Univariate analysis confirmed the strong correlation of each of the 10 components of the original risk score with SAE attributed to a pediatric cardiac catheterization (P pediatric cardiac catheterization procedures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Calcium scores in the risk assessment of an asymptomatic population: implications for airline pilots.

Science.gov (United States)

Wirawan, I Made Ady; Wu, Rodney; Abernethy, Malcolm; Aldington, Sarah; Larsen, Peter D

2014-08-01

This study evaluated whether coronary artery calcium score (CACS) improved cardiovascular disease risk prediction when compared to the New Zealand Cardiovascular Risk Charts (NZ-CRC), and describes the potential utilization of CACS in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment of pilots. A cross-sectional study was performed among asymptomatic patients who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography at Pacific Radiology Wellington, New Zealand, between August 2007 and July 2012 and had their CACS and CVD risk score calculated. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were used to measure the accuracy of the NZ-CRC and CACS. Reclassification analyses were performed to examine the net reclassification improvement (NRI) of CACS when compared to NZ-CRC. Over a 5-yr study period, 237 male asymptomatic patients with ages ranging from 30 to 69 yr with a mean (SD) of 53.24 (8.18) yr, were included. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) (95% CI) for CACS and NZ-CRC were 0.88 (0.83-0.93) and 0.66 (0.59-0.73), respectively. The NRI (95% CI) of the calcium scores was 0.39 (0.17-0.62). CACS should be assessed in pilots with 5-yr CVD risk scores of 5-10% and 10-15%. CACS has a better accuracy than the NZ-CRC and reclassified a considerable proportion of asymptomatic patients into correct cardiovascular risk categories. An approach on how the CACS should be employed in the cardiovascular risk assessment of airline pilots is noted in this paper.

The Boehringer Ingelheim employee study (Part 2): 10-year cardiovascular diseases risk estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kempf, K; Martin, S; Döhring, C; Dugi, K; Haastert, B; Schneider, M

2016-10-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) may cause an economic burden to companies, but CVD risk estimations specific to working populations are lacking. To estimate the 10-year CVD risk in the Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) employee cohort and analyse the potential effect of hypothetical risk reduction interventions. We estimated CVD risk using the Framingham (FRS), PROCAM (PRS) and Reynolds (RRS) risk scores, using cross-sectional baseline data on BI Pharma employees collected from 2005 to 2011. Results were compared using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests. The predictive ability of the score estimates was assessed using receiver-operating characteristics analyses. Among the 4005 study subjects, we estimated 10-year CVD risks of 35% (FRS), 9% (PRS) and 6% (RRS) for men and 10% (FRS), 4% (PRS) and 1% (RRS) for women. One hundred and thirty-four (6%) men and 111 (6%) women employees had current CVD. The best predictors of prevalent CVD were the FRS and the RRS for men [area-under-the-curve 0.62 (0.57-0.67) for both]. A hypothetical intervention that would improve systolic blood pressure, HbA1c (for diabetes), C-reactive protein, triglycerides and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 10% each would potentially reduce expected CVD cases by 36-41% in men and 30-45% in women, and if smoking cessation is incorporated, by 39-45% and 30-55%, respectively, depending on the pre-intervention risk score. There was a substantial risk of developing CVD in this working cohort. Occupational health programmes with lifestyle interventions for high-risk individuals may be an effective risk reduction measure. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The SAFARI Score to Assess the Risk of Convulsive Seizure During Admission for Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaja, Blessing N R; Schweizer, Tom A; Claassen, Jan; Le Roux, Peter; Mayer, Stephan A; Macdonald, R Loch

2018-06-01

Seizure is a significant complication in patients under acute admission for aneurysmal SAH and could result in poor outcomes. Treatment strategies to optimize management will benefit from methods to better identify at-risk patients. To develop and validate a risk score for convulsive seizure during acute admission for SAH. A risk score was developed in 1500 patients from a single tertiary hospital and externally validated in 852 patients. Candidate predictors were identified by systematic review of the literature and were included in a backward stepwise logistic regression model with in-hospital seizure as a dependent variable. The risk score was assessed for discrimination using the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) and for calibration using a goodness-of-fit test. The SAFARI score, based on 4 items (age ≥ 60 yr, seizure occurrence before hospitalization, ruptured aneurysm in the anterior circulation, and hydrocephalus requiring cerebrospinal fluid diversion), had AUC = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-0.82 in the development cohort. The validation cohort had AUC = 0.65, 95% CI 0.56-0.73. A calibrated increase in the risk of seizure was noted with increasing SAFARI score points. The SAFARI score is a simple tool that adequately stratified SAH patients according to their risk for seizure using a few readily derived predictor items. It may contribute to a more individualized management of seizure following SAH.

Development and validation of a postpartum depression risk score in delivered women, Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad R Maracy

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Investigators describe a dramatic increase in the incidence of mood disorder after childbirth, with the largest risk in the 90 days after delivery. This study is designed to develop a relatively simple screening tool and validate it from the significant variables associated with postpartum depression (PPD to detect delivered women at high risk of having PPD. Materials and Methods: In the cross-sectional study, 6,627 from a total of 7,300 delivered women, 2-12 months after delivery were recruited and screened for PPD. Split-half validation was used to develop the risk score. The training data set was used to develop the model, and the validation data set was used to validate the developed the risk factors of postpartum depression risk score using multiple logistic regression analysis to compute the β coefficients and odds ratio (OR for the dependent variables associated with possible PPD in this study. Calibration was checked using the Hosmer and Lemeshow test. A score for independent variables contributing to PPD was calculated. Cutoff points using a trade-off between the sensitivity and specificity of risk scores derived from PPD model using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve. Results: The predicted and observed PPD were not different (P value = 0.885. The aROC with area under the curve (S.E. of 0.611 (0.008 for predicting PPD using the suggested cut-off point of -0.702, the proportion of participants screening positive for PPD was 70.9% (sensitivity (CI 95%; 69.5, 72.3 while the proportion screening negative was 60.1% (specificity (CI 95%; 58.2, 62.1. Conclusion: Despite of the relatively low sensitivity and specificity in this study, it could be a simple, practical and useful screening tool to identify individual at high risk for PPD in the target population.

Oxidative stress is increased in sarcopenia and associated with cardiovascular disease risk in sarcopenic obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bellanti, Francesco; Romano, Antonino D; Lo Buglio, Aurelio; Castriotta, Valeria; Guglielmi, Giuseppe; Greco, Antonio; Serviddio, Gaetano; Vendemiale, Gianluigi

2018-03-01

To define whether circulating markers of oxidative stress correlate with sarcopenia in terms of glutathione balance and oxidative protein damage, and whether these biomarkers are associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Population-based cross-sectional study. 115 out of 347 elderly subjects were classified as non-sarcopenic non-obese (NS-NO), sarcopenic non-obese (S-NO), non-sarcopenic obese (NS-O), and sarcopenic obese (S-O). Sarcopenia was defined as a relative skeletal muscle mass index (RASM) 27 for men or >38 for women. The CVD risk was estimated by the carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and the Framingham score. Blood reduced glutathione (GSH), oxidized glutathione (GSSG), plasma malondialdehyde-(MDA) and 4-hydroxy-2,3-nonenal-(HNE) protein adducts were analyzed. Significantly greater blood GSSG/GSH ratio and plasma MDA/HNE protein adducts were observed in sarcopenic than in non-sarcopenic patients. A logistic regression model showed a close relationship between serum HNE and MDA adducts and sarcopenia (OR=1.133, 95% CI 1.057-1.215, and OR=1.592, 95% CI 1.015-1.991, respectively). Linear and logistic regression analysis evidenced strong associations between the IMT or the Framingham CVD risk category and blood GSSG/GSH or serum HNE protein adducts in the S-O group. Circulating markers of oxidative stress are increased in sarcopenia and related to CVD risk in sarcopenic obesity, suggesting that redox balance analysis would be a useful part of a multidimensional evaluation in aging. Further research is encouraged to support interventional strategies to correct redox imbalance, which might contribute to the prevention or at least limitation of sarcopenia and its co-morbidities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Diabetes Risk in an Adult Population Using Indian Diabetes Risk Score in an Urban Resettlement Colony of Delhi.

Science.gov (United States)

Acharya, Anita Shankar; Singh, Anshu; Dhiman, Balraj

2017-03-01

Diabetes mellitus is one of the non-communicable diseases which has become a major global health problem whose prevalence is increasing worldwide and is expected to reach 4.4% by 2030. The risk of diabetes escalates with increase in the number of risk factors and their duration as well. The Indian Diabetic Risk Score (IDRS) is a simple, low cost, feasible tool for mass screening programme at the community level. To assess the risk score of diabetes among the study subjects using IDRS. A cross sectional survey was conducted on adults >30 years (n=580) on both gender in an urban resettlement colony of Delhi during December 2013 to March 2015. A Semi-structured interview schedule consisting of Socio-demographic characteristics, risk factor profile and Indian Diabetes Risk Score was used. Data was entered and analyzed in SPSS. Out of 580 subjects, 31 (5.3%) study subjects were not at risk of having diabetes, rest 94.5% were at moderate or high risk of diabetes.A statistically significant association of diabetes risk with marital status(p=0.0001), education(0.005),body mass index(0.049) and systolic blood pressure was seen.(p=0.006). More than 90% of the study subjects were at risk of having diabetes, hence screening is of utmost importance so that interventions can be initiated at an early stage.

Genetic risk scores link body fat distribution with specific cardiometabolic profiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svendstrup, Mathilde; Sandholt, Camilla H; Andersson Galijatovic, Ehm Astrid

2016-01-01

, including fasting serum triglyceride (β = 0.98% mmol/L, P = 3.33 × 10(-) (8) ) and Matsuda index (β = -0.74%, P = 1.29 × 10(-) (4) ). No similar associations for Clusters 2 and 3 were found. The three clusters showed different patterns of association with waist circumference, hip circumference, and height......OBJECTIVE: Forty-nine known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associating with body mass index (BMI)-adjusted waist-hip-ratio (WHR) (WHRadjBMI) were recently suggested to cluster into three groups with different associations to cardiometabolic traits. Genetic risk scores of the clusters...... risk scores and anthropometry and blood samples at fasting and during an oral glucose tolerance test were tested. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, and BMI. RESULTS: Cluster 1 associated with an increased risk of diabetes (HR = 1.05, P = 2.74 × 10(-) (4) ) and with a poor metabolic profile...

Genetic Risk Score for Essential Hypertension and Risk of Preeclampsia.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Caitlin J; Saftlas, Audrey F; Spracklen, Cassandra N; Triche, Elizabeth W; Bjonnes, Andrew; Keating, Brendan; Saxena, Richa; Breheny, Patrick J; Dewan, Andrew T; Robinson, Jennifer G; Hoh, Josephine; Ryckman, Kelli K

2016-01-01

Preeclampsia is a hypertensive complication of pregnancy characterized by novel onset of hypertension after 20 weeks gestation, accompanied by proteinuria. Epidemiological evidence suggests that genetic susceptibility exists for preeclampsia; however, whether preeclampsia is the result of underlying genetic risk for essential hypertension has yet to be investigated. Based on the hypertensive state that is characteristic of preeclampsia, we aimed to determine if established genetic risk scores (GRSs) for hypertension and blood pressure are associated with preeclampsia. Subjects consisted of 162 preeclamptic cases and 108 normotensive pregnant controls, all of Iowa residence. Subjects' DNA was extracted from buccal swab samples and genotyped on the Affymetrix Genome-wide Human SNP Array 6.0 (Affymetrix, Santa Clara, CA). Missing genotypes were imputed using MaCH and Minimac software. GRSs were calculated for hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) using established genetic risk loci for each outcome. Regression analyses were performed to determine the association between GRS and risk of preeclampsia. These analyses were replicated in an independent US population of 516 cases and 1,097 controls of European ancestry. GRSs for hypertension, SBP, DBP, and MAP were not significantly associated with risk for preeclampsia (P > 0.189). The results of the replication analysis also yielded nonsignificant associations. GRSs for hypertension and blood pressure are not associated with preeclampsia, suggesting that an underlying predisposition to essential hypertension is not on the causal pathway of preeclampsia. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-03-01

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

Recurrent epistaxis: predicting risk of 30-day readmission, derivation and validation of RHINO-ooze score.

Science.gov (United States)

Addison, A; Paul, C; Kuo, R; Lamyman, A; Martinez-Devesa, P; Hettige, R

2017-06-01

To derive and validate a predictive scoring tool (RHINO-ooze score) with good sensitivity and specificity in identifying patients with epistaxis at high risk of 30 day readmission and to enable risk stratification for possible definitive intervention. Using medical databases, we searched for factors influencing recurrent epistaxis. The information ascertained together with our analysis of retrospective data on patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2013 and September 2014, was used as the derivation cohort to develop the predictive scoring model (RHINO-ooze score). The tool was validated by performing statistical analysis on the validation cohort of patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2014 and October 2015. Multiple linear regressions with backwards elimination was used to derive the predictive model. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity were calculated. 834 admissions were encountered within the study period. Using the derivative cohort (n= 302) the RHINO-ooze score with a maximum score of 8 from five variables (Recent admission, Haemorrhage point unidentified, Increasing age over 70, posterior Nasal packing, Oral anticoagulant) was developed. The RHINO-ooze score had a chi-square value of 99.72 with a significance level of smaller than 0.0001 and hence an overall good model fit. Comparison between the derivative and validation groups revealed similar rates of 30-day readmission between the cohorts. The sensitivity and specificity of predicting 30-day readmission in high risk patients with recurrent epistaxis (RHINO-ooze score equal/larger than 6) was 81% and 84%, respectively. The RHINO-ooze scoring tool demonstrates good specificity and sensitivity in predicting the risk of 30 day readmission in patients with epistaxis and can be used as an adjunct to clinical decision making with regards to timing of operative intervention in order to reduce readmission rates.

Entecavir treatment does not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B: limited role for risk scores in Caucasians.

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Arends, Pauline; Sonneveld, Milan J; Zoutendijk, Roeland; Carey, Ivana; Brown, Ashley; Fasano, Massimo; Mutimer, David; Deterding, Katja; Reijnders, Jurriën G P; Oo, Ye; Petersen, Jörg; van Bömmel, Florian; de Knegt, Robert J; Santantonio, Teresa; Berg, Thomas; Welzel, Tania M; Wedemeyer, Heiner; Buti, Maria; Pradat, Pierre; Zoulim, Fabien; Hansen, Bettina; Janssen, Harry L A

2015-08-01

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk-scores may predict HCC in Asian entecavir (ETV)-treated patients. We aimed to study risk factors and performance of risk scores during ETV treatment in an ethnically diverse Western population. We studied all HBV monoinfected patients treated with ETV from 11 European referral centres within the VIRGIL Network. A total of 744 patients were included; 42% Caucasian, 29% Asian, 19% other, 10% unknown. At baseline, 164 patients (22%) had cirrhosis. During a median follow-up of 167 (IQR 82-212) weeks, 14 patients developed HCC of whom nine (64%) had cirrhosis at baseline. The 5-year cumulative incidence rate of HCC was 2.1% for non-cirrhotic and 10.9% for cirrhotic patients (peliminate the risk of HCC. Discriminatory performance of HCC risk scores was limited, particularly in Caucasians, at baseline and during therapy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Dietary score and the risk of oral cancer: a case-control study in southeast China.

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Chen, Fa; Yan, Lingjun; Lin, Lisong; Liu, Fengqiong; Qiu, Yu; Wang, Jing; Wu, Junfeng; Liu, Fangping; Huang, Jiangfeng; Cai, Lin; He, Baochang

2017-05-23

This study aims to develop a simple dietary score to comprehensively evaluate the role of diet in the risk of oral cancer. A case-control study including 930 oral cancer cases and 2667 frequency-matched controls was performed in Fujian, China. Unconditional logistic regression model was used to estimate the effects of dietary factors on oral cancer. After adjustment for potential confounders, less intake of domestic meat (oral cancer. Then these variables were incorporated to establish dietary risk score. Assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve, the score showed a satisfactory discriminatory capacity, with an area under the curve of 0.682 (95% CI: 0.662-0.702). Moreover, the score was positively associated with the risk of oral cancer as quartiles, and the association was apparently stronger in tobacco smokers or alcohol drinkers. Additionally, there were significant multiplicative interactions between the score and tobacco smoking or alcohol drinking for oral cancer. In the present study, a convenient dietary score with satisfactory discriminatory capacity was developed to assess the collected effect of dietary factors on oral cancer, which could provide a new strategy for the prevention of oral cancer through changing in dietary habits.

Screening for Behavioral Risk: Identification of High Risk Cut Scores within the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS)

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Kilgus, Stephen P.; Taylor, Crystal N.; von der Embse, Nathaniel P.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to support the identification of Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS) cut scores that could be used to detect high-risk students. Teachers rated students across two time points (Time 1 n = 1,242 students; Time 2 n = 704) using the SAEBRS and the Behavioral and Emotional Screening System…

Improved predictive value of GRACE risk score combined with platelet reactivity for 1-year cardiovascular risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome who underwent coronary stent implantation.

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Li, Shan; Liu, Hongbin; Liu, Jianfeng; Wang, Haijun

2016-11-01

Both high platelet reactivity (HPR) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score have moderate predictive value for major adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), whereas the prognostic significance of GRACE risk score combined with platelet function testing remains unclear. A total of 596 patients with non-ST elevation ACS who underwent PCI were enrolled. The P2Y 12 reaction unit (PRU) value was measured by VerifyNow P2Y 12 assay and GRACE score was calculated by GRACE risk 2.0 calculator. Patients were stratified by a pre-specified cutoff value of PRU 230 and GRACE score 140 to assess 1-year risk of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and stent thrombosis. Seventy-two (12.1%) patients developed CVD events during 1-year follow-up. Patients with CVD events had a higher PRU value (244.6 ± 50.9 vs. 203.7 ± 52.0, p risk independently. Compared to patients with normal platelet reactivity (NPR) and GRACE score risk (HR: 5.048; 95% CI: 2.268-11.237; p risk score yielded superior risk predictive capacity beyond GRACE score alone, which is shown by improved c-statistic value (0.871, p = 0.002) as well as net reclassification improvement (NRI 0.263, p risk of adverse CVD events. The combination of platelet function testing and GRACE score predicted 1-year CVD risk better.

A Score for Risk of Thrombolysis-Associated Hemorrhage Including Pretreatment with Statins

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Hebun Erdur

2018-02-01

Full Text Available BackgroundSymptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH after intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue-plasminogen activator (rt-PA for acute ischemic stroke is associated with a poor functional outcome. We aimed to develop a score assessing risk of sICH including novel putative predictors—namely, pretreatment with statins and severe renal impairment.MethodsWe analyzed our local cohort (Berlin of patients receiving rt-PA for acute ischemic stroke between 2006 and 2016. Outcome was sICH according to ECASS-III criteria. A multiple regression model identified variables associated with sICH and receiver operating characteristics were calculated for the best discriminatory model for sICH. The model was validated in an independent thrombolysis cohort (Basel.ResultssICH occurred in 53 (4.0% of 1,336 patients in the derivation cohort. Age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, systolic blood pressure on admission, blood glucose on admission, and prior medication with medium- or high-dose statins were associated with sICH and included into the risk of intracranial hemorrhage score. The validation cohort included 983 patients of whom 33 (3.4% had a sICH. c-Statistics for sICH was 0.72 (95% CI 0.66–0.79 in the derivation cohort and 0.69 (95% CI 0.60–0.77 in the independent validation cohort. Inclusion of severe renal impairment did not improve the score.ConclusionWe developed a simple score with fair discriminating capability to predict rt-PA-related sICH by adding prior statin use to known prognostic factors of sICH. This score may help clinicians to identify patients with higher risk of sICH requiring intensive monitoring.

Relation of the aortic stiffness with the GRACE risk score in patients with the non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

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Omer, Gedikli; Gokhan, Aksan; Adem, Uzun; Sabri, Demircan; Korhan, Soylu

2014-01-01

Current guidelines recommend clinical risk scoring systems for the patients diagnosed and determinated treatment strategy with in Non-ST-elevation elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Previous studies demonstrated association between aortic elasticity properties, stiffness and severity CAD. However, the associations between Aortic stiffness, elasticity properties and clinical risk scores have not been investigated. In the present study we have evaluated the relation between the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and aortic stiffness in patients with NSTEMI. We prospectively analyzed 87 consecutive patients with NSTEMI. Aortic elastic parameter and stiffness parameter were calculated from the echocardiographically derived thoracic aortic diameters (mm/m(2)), and the measurement of pulse pressure obtained by cuff sphygmomanometry. We have categorized the patients in to two groups as low ((n = 45) (GRACE risk score ≤ 140)) and high ((n = 42) (GRACE risk score > 140)) risk group according to GRACE risk score and compare the both groups. Table 1 shows baseline characteristics of patients. Our study showed that Aortic strain was significantly low (3.5 ± 1.4, 7.9 ± 2.3 respectively, p < 0.001) and aortic stiffness index was significantly high (3.9 ± 0.38; 3 ± 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001) in the high risk group values compared to those with low risk group. The aortic stiffness index was the only independent predictor of GRACE risk score (OR: 119.390; 95% CI: 2.925-4872.8; p = 0.011) in multivariate analysis. We found a significant correlation between aortic stiffness, impaired elasticity and GRACE risk score. Aortic stiffness index was the only independent variable of the high GRACE risk score. The inclusion of aortic stiffness into the GRACE risk score could allow improved risk classification of patients with ACS at admission and this may be important in the diagnosis, follow up and treatment of the patients.

Risk prediction is improved by adding markers of subclinical organ damage to SCORE

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Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W

2010-01-01

cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, or lipid-lowering treatment, aged 41, 51, 61, or 71 years, we measured traditional cardiovascular risk factors, left ventricular (LV) mass index, atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries, carotid/femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR......) and followed them for a median of 12.8 years. Eighty-one subjects died because of cardiovascular causes. Risk of cardiovascular death was independently of SCORE associated with LV hypertrophy [hazard ratio (HR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.2-4.0)], plaques [HR 2.5 (1.6-4.0)], UACR > or = 90th percentile [HR 3.3 (1.......07). CONCLUSION: Subclinical organ damage predicted cardiovascular death independently of SCORE and the combination may improve risk prediction....

Risk behavior score: a practical approach for assessing risk among men who have sex with men in Brazil

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Gustavo Machado Rocha

2018-03-01

Full Text Available HIV/AIDS epidemic is not well controlled, and multiple sexual behavior factors help explain high rates of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM. This article proposes to exam the use of a potential risk behavior score for HIV infection, based on the type and number of sexual partners, and condom use, and their associated factors in a sample of MSM in Brazil. A cross sectional RDS (Respondent Driven Sampling study was performed among 3738 MSM aged 18+ years old from ten Brazilian cities. The risk behavior score was composed by the number of male partners and anal condom use in the last year with steady, casual, and commercial partners. Most participants were 25+ years old (58.1%, non-white (83.1%, and single (84.9%. Final weighted ordinal logistic model showed that age ≤ 25 years old (p = 0.037, homosexual or bisexual identity (p < 0.001, sexual initiation before 15-year-old (p < 0.001, having sex with men only in the last 12 months (p < 0.001, frequent alcohol and illicit drug use (p < 0.001, and use of local sites to meet sexual partners in the last month were independently associated with higher scores of risky behavior. Specific strategies should be developed aimed at the MSM population. Additionally, pre-exposed prophylaxis (Prep should be considered for those at higher score as a strategy for reducing risk for HIV infection in this population. Keywords: Homosexuals, High-risk sex, Unsafe sex, HIV, AIDS

The predictive value of CHADS₂ risk score in post myocardial infarction arrhythmias - a Cardiac Arrhythmias and RIsk Stratification after Myocardial infArction (CARISMA) substudy

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Ruwald, Anne-Christine Huth; Gang, Uffe; Thomsen, Poul Erik Bloch

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown substantially increased risk of cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients. However it remains difficult to identify the patients who are at highest risk of arrhythmias in the post-MI setting. The purpose...... of this study was to investigate if CHADS₂ score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes and previous stroke/TCI [doubled]) can be used as a risk tool for predicting cardiac arrhythmias after MI. METHODS: The study included 297 post-MI patients from the CARISMA study with left....... Patients were stratified according to CHADS₂ score at enrollment. Congestive heart failure was defined as LVEF ≤40% and NYHA class II, III or IV. RESULTS: We found significantly increased risk of an arrhythmic event with increasing CHADS₂ score (CHADS₂ score=1-2: HR=2.1 [1.1-3.9], p=0.021, CHADS₂ score ≥ 3...

Doença cardiovascular e fatores de risco cardiovascular em candidatos a transplante renal Cardiovascular disease and risk factors in candidates for renal transplantation

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Luís Henrique Wolff Gowdak

2005-02-01

Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Determinar a prevalência de doença cardiovascular (DCV e de fatores de risco tradicionais em portadores de insuficiência renal crônica em avaliação para inclusão em lista para transplante renal. MÉTODOS: Foram submetidos à avaliação clínica e exames complementares 195 pacientes com insuficiência renal crônica dialítica e comparados a grupo de 334 hipertensos pareados por idade. As equações de Framingham foram usadas para o cálculo do risco absoluto (RA; o risco relativo (RR foi calculado tendo como referência o risco absoluto da coorte de baixo risco de Framingham. RESULTADOS: Do total, 37% apresentaram algum tipo de doença cardiovascular na avaliação inicial, sendo que arteriopatia obstrutiva (23% foi a mais prevalente. Excluídos os pacientes com doença cardiovascular, em relação aos fatores de risco tradicionais, houve diferença significativa quanto à pressão arterial sistólica e colesterol total (maiores no grupo de hipertensos e às prevalências de homens, diabetes e tabagismo, maiores no grupo de insuficiência renal crônica, que apresentou maior grau de hipertrofia ventricular esquerda, menor pressão arterial diastólica e menor prevalência de história familiar de doença cardiovascular e obesidade. O risco relativo para doença cardiovascular dos pacientes com insuficiência renal crônica foi mais elevado em relação à população controle de Framingham porém não diferiu da observada no grupo de hipertensos. CONCLUSÃO: Em candidatos a transplante renal é significativa a prevalência de doença cardiovascular e de fatores de risco tradicionais; as equações de Framingham não quantificam adequadamente o risco cardiovascular real e outros fatores de risco específicos desta população devem contribuir para o maior risco cardiovascular.OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD and traditional risk factors in patients with chronic renal failure undergoing

CMR reference values for left ventricular volumes, mass, and ejection fraction using computer-aided analysis : The Framingham Heart Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chuang, Michael L.; Gona, Philimon; Hautvast, Gilion L.T.F.; Salton, Carol J.; Breeuwer, Marcel; O'Donnell, Christopher J.; Manning, Warren J.

Purpose To determine sex-specific reference values for left ventricular (LV) volumes, mass, and ejection fraction (EF) in healthy adults using computer-aided analysis and to examine the effect of age on LV parameters. Materials and Methods We examined data from 1494 members of the Framingham Heart

Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes.

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Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

2016-01-01

Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

A Family Longevity Selection Score: Ranking Sibships by Their Longevity, Size, and Availability for Study

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Sebastiani, Paola; Hadley, Evan C; Province, Michael

2009-01-01

Family studies of exceptional longevity can potentially identify genetic and other factors contributing to long life and healthy aging. Although such studies seek families that are exceptionally long lived, they also need living members who can provide DNA and phenotype information. On the basis...... of these considerations, the authors developed a metric to rank families for selection into a family study of longevity. Their measure, the family longevity selection score (FLoSS), is the sum of 2 components: 1) an estimated family longevity score built from birth-, gender-, and nation-specific cohort survival...... probabilities and 2) a bonus for older living siblings. The authors examined properties of FLoSS-based family rankings by using data from 3 ongoing studies: the New England Centenarian Study, the Framingham Heart Study, and screenees for the Long Life Family Study. FLoSS-based selection yields families...

Stroke risk perception among participants of a stroke awareness campaign

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Kraywinkel, Klaus; Heidrich, Jan; Heuschmann, Peter U; Wagner, Markus; Berger, Klaus

2007-01-01

Background Subjective risk factor perception is an important component of the motivation to change unhealthy life styles. While prior studies assessed cardiovascular risk factor knowledge, little is known about determinants of the individual perception of stroke risk. Methods Survey by mailed questionnaire among 1483 participants of a prior public stroke campaign in Germany. Participants had been informed about their individual stroke risk based on the Framingham stroke risk score. Stroke risk factor knowledge, perception of lifetime stroke risk and risk factor status were included in the questionnaire, and the determinants of good risk factor knowledge and high stroke risk perception were identified using logistic regression models. Results Overall stroke risk factor knowledge was good with 67–96% of the participants recognizing established risk factors. The two exceptions were diabetes (recognized by 49%) and myocardial infarction (57%). Knowledge of a specific factor was superior among those affected by it. 13% of all participants considered themselves of having a high stroke risk, 55% indicated a moderate risk. All major risk factors contributed significantly to the perception of being at high stroke risk, but the effects of age, sex and education were non-significant. Poor self-rated health was additionally associated with high individual stroke risk perception. Conclusion Stroke risk factor knowledge was high in this study. The self perception of an increased stroke risk was associated with established risk factors as well as low perception of general health. PMID:17371603

Cardiovascular risk in an HIV-infected population in India.

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Marbaniang, Ivan P; Kadam, Dileep; Suman, Rohan; Gupte, Nikhil; Salvi, Sonali; Patil, Sandesh; Shere, Dhananjay; Deshpande, Prasad; Kulkarni, Vandana; Deluca, Andrea; Gupta, Amita; Mave, Vidya

2017-01-01

To characterise prevalence of traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, assess CVD risk and examine the effect of simulated interventions on CVD risk among HIV-infected Asian Indians. Cross-sectional data between September 2015 and July 2016 wer used to describe the prevalence of CVD risk factors. Five risk scores (Framingham, Data Collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs Study (D:A:D), Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular, QRISK2 and Ramathibodi-Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand were used to estimate CVD risk. The effect of seven sensitivity analyses: smoking prevention; diabetes prevention; optimal blood pressure and dyslipidaemia control (total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL)); CD4 augmentation and a combination of the scenarios on the median cumulative D:A:D CVD scores were assessed. Of 402 enrolled, 56% were women, median age was 40 years (IQR: 35-45 years) and median time-updated CD4 counts were 378 cells/μL (IQR: 246-622). Fifty-five and 28% had ever been screened for hypertension and diabetes, respectively prior to enrolment. The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, low HDL, previous and current smokers were 9%, 22%, 20%, 39%, 14% and 4%, respectively. Thirty-six per cent had intermediate-to-high 5-year CVD risk by D:A:D estimates. Thirty-two per cent were eligible for statin therapy by American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines; 2% were currently on statins. In sensitivity analyses, diabetes prevention was associated with the highest reduction of CVD risk. CVD at younger ages among Asian Indian people living with HIV appear to be an imminent risk for morbidity. Stepping up of preventive services including screening services and prescription of statins are important strategies that must be considered.

Predicting asthma in preschool children with asthma-like symptoms : Validating and updating the PIAMA risk score

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hafkamp-de Groen, Esther; Lingsma, Hester F.; Caudri, Daan; Levie, Deborah; Wijga, Alet; Koppelman, Gerard H.; Duijts, Liesbeth; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.; Smit, Henriette A.; Kerkhof, Marjan; Moll, Henriette A.; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; de Jongste, Johan C.; Raat, Hein

2013-01-01

Background: The Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy (PIAMA) risk score predicts the probability of having asthma at school age among preschool children with suggestive symptoms. Objective: We sought to externally validate the PIAMA risk score at different ages and in ethnic and

The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment Score (PANDORA: Development of a Simple Predictive Risk Score for 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Based on Demographics, Clinical Observation, and Nutrition.

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Michael Hiesmayr

Full Text Available To develop a simple scoring system to predict 30 day in-hospital mortality of in-patients excluding those from intensive care units based on easily obtainable demographic, disease and nutrition related patient data.Score development with general estimation equation methodology and model selection by P-value thresholding based on a cross-sectional sample of 52 risk indicators with 123 item classes collected with questionnaires and stored in an multilingual online database.Worldwide prospective cross-sectional cohort with 30 day in-hospital mortality from the nutritionDay 2006-2009 and an external validation sample from 2012.We included 43894 patients from 2480 units in 32 countries. 1631(3.72% patients died within 30 days in hospital. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment (PANDORA score predicts 30-day hospital mortality based on 7 indicators with 31 item classes on a scale from 0 to 75 points. The indicators are age (0 to 17 points, nutrient intake on nutritionDay (0 to 12 points, mobility (0 to 11 points, fluid status (0 to 10 points, BMI (0 to 9 points, cancer (9 points and main patient group (0 to 7 points. An appropriate model fit has been achieved. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mortality prediction was 0.82 in the development sample and 0.79 in the external validation sample.The PANDORA score is a simple, robust scoring system for a general population of hospitalised patients to be used for risk stratification and benchmarking.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Patterns and Their Implications for Intervention Strategies in Vietnam

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Quang Ngoc Nguyen

2012-01-01

Methods. A cross-sectional survey in 2009 (2,130 adults was done to collect data on behavioural CVDRF, anthropometry and blood pressure, lipidaemia profiles, and oral glucose tolerance tests. Four metabolic CVDRFs (hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes, and obesity and five behavioural CVDRFs (smoking, excessive alcohol intake, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, and stress were analysed to identify their prevalence, cluster patterns, and social predictors. Framingham scores were applied to estimate the global 10-year CVD risks and potential benefits of CVD prevention strategies. Results. The age-standardised prevalence of having at least 2/4 metabolic, 2/5 behavioural, or 4/9 major CVDRF was 28%, 27%, 13% in women and 32%, 62%, 34% in men. Within-individual clustering of metabolic factors was more common among older women and in urban areas. High overall CVD risk (≥20% over 10 years identified 20% of men and 5% of women—especially at higher ages—who had coexisting CVDRF. Conclusion. Multiple CVDRFs were common in Vietnamese adults with different clustering patterns across sex/age groups. Tackling any single risk factor would not be efficient.

Complete blood count risk score and its components, including RDW, are associated with mortality in the JUPITER trial.

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Horne, Benjamin D; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Muhlestein, Joseph B; Ridker, Paul M; Paynter, Nina P

2015-04-01

Previously, we showed that sex-specific complete blood count (CBC) risk scores strongly predicted risk of all-cause mortality in multiple sets of general medical patients. This study evaluated the CBC risk score in an independent, well-studied international primary risk population of lower-risk individuals initially free from cardiovascular (CV) disease. Observational secondary analysis of a randomized trial population. The previously derived and validated CBC score was evaluated for association with all-cause mortality among CV disease-free females (n = 6568) and males (n = 10,629) enrolled for up to 5 years in the Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin (JUPITER) trial. Associations of the CBC score with CV mortality and with major CV disease were also tested. The CBC score predicted all-cause mortality, with univariable hazard ratio (HR) 4.83 (95% CI 3.70-6.31) for the third CBC score tertile vs. the first tertile, and HR 2.31 (CI 1.75-3.05) for the second tertile (p trend JUPITER endpoint (p trend = 0.015). c-statistics for mortality were 0.729 among all, and 0.722 and 0.750 for females and males, respectively. The CBC risk score was strongly associated with all-cause mortality among JUPITER trial participants and had good discrimination. It also predicted CV-specific outcomes. This CBC score may be useful in identifying cardiac disease-free individuals at increased risk of mortality. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.