WorldWideScience

Sample records for fracturees scenarios prospectifs

  1. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  2. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  3. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  4. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  5. FHWA scenario planning guidebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this guidebook is to assist transportation agencies with carrying out a scenario : planning process from start to finish. Transportation agencies can use the guidebook as a framework : to develop a scenario planning approach tailored t...

  6. Participatory Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop......The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop...

  7. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  8. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational l...... theoretical understanding of scenario planning while simultaneously presenting a more nuanced account of the individual behaviors and social dynamics underpinning organizational learning.......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...

  9. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #2 - Safety and Security Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    By: Lansdowne Technologies Inc. 1001-247 Slater Street Ottawa ON, K1P 5H9 Contractor’s Document Number: Contract Project Manager : Peter Avis... management , focusing on eliciting a Whole of Government (WoG) response. While all efforts have been taken to present a plausible scenario, it is not...capabilities required for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives. Résumé …..... Compte tenu des changements survenus dans le climat

  10. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  11. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society......’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional...

  12. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society......This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...

  13. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawing...... on behavioural strategy as a theoretical lens, we design a yardstick to study the impact of scenario-based strategizing. We then describe our approach, which includes developing scenarios and alternative strategies separately and supporting the strategy selection through an integrated assessment of the goal...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  14. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  15. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  16. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  17. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  18. Smoldering - The Fire Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Torero, Jose L

    2000-01-01

    There are certain fire initiation scenarios that are particularly common, one of great significance is a fire initiated from the ignition of a porous fuel. Nearly 40% of the deaths due to fire can be traced to cigarette induced smolder of upholstered furniture and the mechanisms that control the process that transforms the weak smolder reaction occurring in the cigarette to a fire are still mostly unknown. A general description of this fire scenario and a discussion of its threats is pr...

  19. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  20. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  1. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  2. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  3. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    on behavioural strategy as a theoretical lens, we design a yardstick to study the impact of scenario-based strategizing. We then describe our approach, which includes developing scenarios and alternative strategies separately and supporting the strategy selection through an integrated assessment of the goal......-based efficacy and robustness. To facilitate the colla- borative strategizing in teams, we propose a matrix with robustness and efficacy as the two axes, which we call the Parmenides Matrix. We assess the impact of the novel approach by applying it in two cases, at a govern- mental agency (German Environmental...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  4. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario......, which motivates re-statement of the claim in the first place, ultimately fails. In actuality, the field is distanced from its purported goals. The “dismal” state of theory encourages scholars to adopt theory that is not necessarily tethered to a common core, which does not contribute to a shared...

  5. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  6. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway...

  7. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  8. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  9. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  10. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  11. Domestic Energy Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aabakken, J.; Short, W.

    2003-01-01

    This report attempts to organize and evaluate scenarios of markets and technologies that could impact renewable and distributed electricity-generating technologies during the next 20-100 years in the United States. For the purposes of this report, scenarios are defined broadly as any projection or forecast that helps illuminate the potential of Renewable Electric Technologies (RETs) in the United States. Scenarios vary widely in terms of their scope-some focus on supply of fuels or narrow segments of markets with limited timeframes, while others are broader in scope and time span. There are several factors that influence the market penetration of renewable energy and distributed generation technologies. Most notable among these are natural gas prices, technology improvements, and policy measures. Natural gas prices are important because most new generating capacity, as well as marginal generation units, generally are natural-gas fired. Assumptions about the rate of improvement in renewable and distributed generation technologies can also have a significant impact on market penetration. Finally, policy measures that support these technologies, such as tax credits or interconnection standards, can contribute to their accelerated adoption.

  12. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  13. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  14. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther [James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1HP (United Kingdom)

    2008-10-15

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'-'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  15. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-01-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'-'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  16. Quantifying Four Scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lejour, A.

    2003-10-01

    This study presents four economic scenarios for Europe until 2040. The scenarios are developed around two key uncertainties: international cooperation and institutional reforms. In the scenarios Strong Europe (SE) and Global Economy (GE), international cooperation is prominent, while the other scenarios, Regional Communities (RC) and Transatlantic Market (TM), feature limited international cooperation. Public institutions are important in Strong Europe and Regional Communities. In Global Economy and Transatlantic Market the role of the public sector is limited. There is more room for private initiatives in these scenarios. To illustrate the scenarios, this document presents quantitative developments described with an applied general equilibrium model developed at CPB: WorldScan. By using this model we are able to derive consistency between developments in the scenarios and to apply common economic mechanisms. The variation in the outcomes for the scenarios is derived by introducing differences in exogenous trends. This document explains and motivates these differences

  17. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature...

  18. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  19. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieley, James B.

    1997-01-01

    Proposes scenario planning in preparing for the future of higher education. Delineates a methodology for effective scenario planning: identifying potential future scenarios; examining social, economic, political, environmental, and technological influences; exploring mental models while looking through systems maps, and developing potential…

  20. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  1. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  2. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  3. Scenario development methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eng, T. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hudson, J. [Rock Engineering Consultants, Welwyn Garden City, Herts (United Kingdom); Stephansson, O. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Engineering Geology; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are (a) Event tree analysis, (b) Influence diagrams and (c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs.

  4. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...... insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used...

  5. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  6. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  7. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...... existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...

  8. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  9. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  10. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Scenarios provide useful insight into the complex factors that drive ecosystem change, estimating the magnitude of regional...

  11. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many......) instances of a scenario. The tool is based on control flow analysis of the process calculus LySa and is applied to the Bauer, Berson, and Feiertag protocol where is reveals a previously undocumented problem, which occurs in some scenarios but not in other....

  12. Scenario Planning and Collection Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesecke, Joan

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the future of library collection development and the need for planning focuses on the technique of scenario planning and discusses the results of scenario planning at the University of NebraskaLincoln that examined collection development and digital information. (LRW)

  13. Application Scenarios and Deployment Domains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niamut, O.A.; Engström, A.; Kochale, A.; Macq, J.; Thomas, G.; Zorić, G.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter describes the impact of deploying the format-agnostic media approach, along the lines of three deployment domains and the end user perspective. The chapter elaborates on a series of potential application scenarios. These application scenarios describe features of a potential

  14. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  15. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information......; this includes available statistical information and a short survey of emerging technologies. A scenario for Denmark is presented and consequences are discussed....

  16. Le metodologie dello scenario parecipato

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected......The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected...

  17. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  18. Baseline scenario(s) for muon collider proton driver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansson, Andreas; /Fermilab

    2008-07-01

    This paper gives an overview of the various muon collider scenarios and the requirements they put on the Proton Driver. The required proton power is about 4-6MW in all the scenarios, but the bunch repetition rate varies between 12 and 65Hz. Since none of the muon collider scenarios have been simulated end-to-end, it would be advisable to plan for an upgrade path to around 10MW. Although the proton driver energy is flexible, cost arguments seems to favor a relatively low energy. In particular, at Fermilab 8GeV seems most attractive, partly due to the possibility of reusing the three existing fixed energy storage rings for bunch manipulations.

  19. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  20. Future scenarios of energy for Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga, Daniel; Cadena, Angela I

    2000-01-01

    The author includes topics as, requirements for the scenarios; process of scenarios, certainty and uncertainty to the horizon of the 2020, definition of axis for the histories and energy scenario for Colombia

  1. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  2. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  3. [Femicides: concepts, types and scenarios].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghel, Stela Nazareth; Portella, Ana Paula

    2017-09-01

    This text is a theoretical essay that discusses the concepts, types and scenarios of feminicides, and presents some proposals for the prevention of these premature, unjust and avoidable deaths. The text revisits the original concept of femicide proposed by Diana Russell and Jane Caputti and shows new and old scenarios where these crimes occur. It points to patriarchy, understood as being a hierarchical system of power between men and women, as one of the main determinants of these deaths. It ends by presenting actions and proposals to prevent and combat these gender crimes.

  4. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Departamento de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo,Rodovia BR 101 Norte, km. 60, Campus de São Mateus, CEP 29932-540,São Mateus, Espirito Santo (Brazil); Brandenberger, Robert [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Institute for Theoretical Studies, ETH Zürich,CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland); Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada)

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  5. Emissions scenario: a final response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J. (and others)

    2004-01-01

    This note is a final response to the debate raised by Mr Castles and Mr Henderson (for brevity, we refer here to the two authors simply as C and H) in this Journal (vol. 14, no. 2 and 3, and no. 4) on the issue of economic growth in developing countries in some of the emissions scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). We first outline areas of agreement and then the remaining areas of disagreement. Two important areas of agreement have emerged from the debate according to our view. First, both parties agree that scenarios assuming a conditional convergence in income levels, i.e., a higher growth in per capita income in poorer countries when compared to countries with higher levels of affluence, are both ''plausible and well attested in economic history'' (C and H, p. 424). Thus, the fundamental, structural characteristic of some of the SRES scenarios contested by C and H are not challenged per se, but rather how fast such trends could unfold in the future. (author)

  6. Emissions scenarios: a final response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J. (and others)

    2004-01-01

    This note is a final response to the debate raised by Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson (for brevity, we refer here to the two authors simply as C and H) in this Journal (vol 14, no 2 and 3, and no 4) on the issue of economic growth in developing countries in some of the emissions scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). We first outline areas of agreement and then the remaining areas of disagreement. Two important areas of agreement have emerged from the debate according to our view. First, both parties agree that scenarios assuming a conditional convergence in income levels, i.e., a higher growth in per capita income in poorer countries when compared to countries with higher levels of affluence, are both 'plausible and well attested in economic history' (C and H, p. 424). Thus, the fundamental, structural characteristic of some of the SRES scenarios contested by C and H are not challenged per se, but rather how fast such trends could unfold in the future. (author)

  7. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  8. EON UK CORPORATE SCENARIO PLANNING 2020

    OpenAIRE

    Bedi, Rahul; Singh, Paminder; Lee, Chih-Shan

    2008-01-01

    Abstract This research project sets out to explore how scenarios can help to develop strategy in conditions of uncertainty. It suggests that scenarios can be used as intermediary objects to discuss alternative scenarios and generate new strategic approaches. The paper sets to explore how scenario planning is linked to strategy examining a practical application of scenario planning at EON, worlds largest privately owned energy provider. The purpose of this intervention in EON was...

  9. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  10. Emergent physics: Fermi point scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Volovik, G. E.

    2008-01-01

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally 4-dimensional; Universe is naturally flat; cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; `quantum gravity' canno...

  11. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  12. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  13. Regard retro-prospectif sur les crises ivoiriennes de 1993 a 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KOUAMÉ SYLVESTRE KOUASSI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Retrospective view of the Ivorian crises from 1993 to 2011. At the independence, Ivory Coast is led by Felix Houphouët Boigny with a system of single party, the PDCI-RDA. The country enjoys political stability which is about the "Ivorian miracle". The economic upturn that knows a halt in 1979 led to social unrest, which later lead the President to re-establish a multiparty system in 1990. Even relative, peace has been preserved. The death of the father of the nation at December 7 of the year 1993 marks the beginning of a turbulent period characterized among other things by the division of the "heirs" meeting within the PDCI-RDA, the coup of 1999 and the bursting of the socio-political military crisis in 2002. The 2010 elections considered like the end of the long crisis will cause over 3,000 deaths due to severe post-electoral crisis that followed. What can we read today of these successive crises? What are the main factors and actors that have characterized the last twenty years of crisis? How are they structured the country? Our approach is backward looking. It is to see through a systematic analysis of past and present how Ivory Coast reached the current situation in order to draw lessons for the future.

  14. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  15. Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

    2014-01-01

    For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

  16. TCL2 Ocean Scenario Replay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohlenbrink, Christoph P.; Omar, Faisal Gamal; Homola, Jeffrey R.

    2017-01-01

    This is a video replay of system data that was generated from the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) Technical Capability Level (TCL) 2 flight demonstration in Nevada and rendered in Google Earth. What is depicted in the replay is a particular set of flights conducted as part of what was referred to as the Ocean scenario. The test range and surrounding area are presented followed by an overview of operational volumes. System messaging is also displayed as well as a replay of all of the five test flights as they occurred.

  17. Scenario testing using formal ontologies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Harmse, HF

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available project that has been done for a South African hotel group where scenario testing has been employed to detect and rectify errors during the requirements phase of the SDLC. In the hospitality industry the business requirements around calculating the rate.... Firstly a flat rate can be charged across all rooms in the hotel. Secondly the rate can be charged based on the number of guests who form part of the booking. In the hospitality industry this is often referred to as PAX. Lastly the rate can be determined...

  18. Evaluation of World Energy Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery I. Salygin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available What are the future global systems developments? It remains one the biggest unknown, especially in terms of energy, as it is globally considered as both cause and solution for multiple problems of the humanity. Therefore, nowadays a number of experts are exploring driving forces, critical uncertainties and unknowns that have an influence on future energy systems development. This article aims at providing a brief investigation of existing world energy scenarios that cover the range of plausible outcomes of future global energy system development. Those are represented by International Energy Agency, World Energy Council, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and others. The analysis covers both qualitative and quantitative indicators of the world energy system development that provide for future worldview formation. The article looks into various approaches to energy system development forecasting and scenario building employed by the abovementioned organisations, and discovers the motives for making assumptions as the means of attaining internal targets and the consequences of the distinction of individual attitude to the development trends within the expert community. The current assessment implies grouping of the most advanced of the existing energy system development models, identification their advantages and disadvantages, and shows differences in modeling approaches used in a number of specialized international organisations.

  19. Scenario Development for Information Operations (IO) Experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-07-10

    country called DYSLEXIA , whose government has been making threats to invade and appropriate a region of its neighbouring country, ABSTEMIA, which is...Network Measures and Metrics 18 Conclusion Scenarios - Tailoring, Framework, Families of Scenario Experiments - Measures, Humans, Objectives Networks

  20. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  1. Grand unified brane world scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arai, Masato; Blaschke, Filip; Eto, Minoru; Sakai, Norisuke

    2017-12-01

    We present a field theoretical model unifying grand unified theory (GUT) and brane world scenario. As a concrete example, we consider S U (5 ) GUT in 4 +1 dimensions where our 3 +1 dimensional spacetime spontaneously arises on five domain walls. A field-dependent gauge kinetic term is used to localize massless non-Abelian gauge fields on the domain walls and to assure the charge universality of matter fields. We find the domain walls with the symmetry breaking S U (5 )→S U (3 )×S U (2 )×U (1 ) as a global minimum and all the undesirable moduli are stabilized with the mass scale of MGUT. Profiles of massless standard model particles are determined as a consequence of wall dynamics. The proton decay can be exponentially suppressed.

  2. Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. M. Kamal Uddin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future.

  3. Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uddin, A F M Kamal; Khan, Zohora Jameela; Islam, Johirul; Mahmud, Am

    2013-04-01

    Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future.

  4. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  5. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  6. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  7. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  8. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  9. Project scenarios for bitumen upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koppel, P.E.; Mazurek, W.L.; Harji, A.

    2002-01-01

    The established reserves of Alberta's heavy oil resources are 178 billion barrels, and potential recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels. The challenge of production includes the logistics of recovery, upgrading and transportation to market. Utilization of the bitumen is not simple because bitumen is too viscous to transport by pipeline. In addition, it is not processable by most existing refineries unless it can be upgraded through dilution. This paper examined different factors regarding the economic viability of various upgrading methods of a wide range of bitumen feedstocks. The study also examined the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, along with the competitiveness among bitumen-based feedstock and conventional crudes. Western Canada, Ontario and the PADD II district in the United States are the 3 major markets for western Canadian bitumen based feedstock, the demand for which depends on refinery configurations and asphalt demand. This paper described the following 4 generic scenarios that describe Alberta bitumen upgrading projects: (1) adjacent to open pit mines, (2) adjacent to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) facilities, (3) remotely located from resource production at an existing refinery, and (4) pipeline bitumen. It was noted that producers should determine the best way to upgrade the bitumen to ensure there is an economic market for the product, but they should also be aware not to over process the bitumen so as not to leave existing refinery facilities under-utilized. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  10. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...... by practicians in relation to the scenarios. The scenario 'Naturalness' requires a change of attitude among food producers and society in general. A big challenge for the Danish food industry is that they must accept that its primary role will change from being an important exporting industry to an industry...

  11. Numerically investigating the emergent cyclic inflation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duhe, William; Biswas, Tirthabir

    2014-01-01

    We provide a comprehensive numerical study of the emergent cyclic inflation scenario. This is a scenario where instead of traditional monotonic slow roll inflation, the universe expands over numerous short asymmetric cycles due to the production of entropy via interactions among different species. This is one of the very few scenarios of inflation that provides a non-singular geodesically complete space-time and does not require any ‘reheating’ mechanism. (paper)

  12. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

    2006-10-01

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  13. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....

  14. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  15. The unfolding: scenario planning in nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woude, Diana Vander; Damgaard, Gloria; Hegge, Margaret J; Soholt, Deb; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2003-01-01

    An interdisciplinary consortium organized a group to explore the meaning and the future of nursing in South Dakota using scenario planning. This column provides a general description of the four scenarios that emerged, some observations about how they might evolve, comments on their implications, and first-person stories, as told by fictitious residents. The process of scenario planning is connected to nursing science by explicating how five lessons of scenario planning are linked with Parse's human becoming concepts of creative imagining, glimpsing the paradoxical, and affirming personal becoming.

  16. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...

  17. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hosmer, Hilary

    2000-01-01

    .... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

  18. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  19. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  20. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  1. Software Architecture Reliability Analysis using Failure Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekinerdogan, B.; Sözer, Hasan; Aksit, Mehmet

    2005-01-01

    We propose a Software Architecture Reliability Analysis (SARA) approach that benefits from both reliability engineering and scenario-based software architecture analysis to provide an early reliability analysis of the software architecture. SARA makes use of failure scenarios that are prioritized

  2. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  3. Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen R. Carpenter; Adena R. Rissman

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary....

  4. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  5. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  6. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  7. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Emissions Scenarios Dataset Version 1.1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Emissions Scenarios Dataset Version 1.1 consists of 40 global and...

  8. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  9. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  10. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties. Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy...... formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... frameworks for action. Trust speaks to persuasion and how stories of the future become trustworthy and garner credibility when traditional measures are fundamentally insufficient and irrelevant. That is, if we take as an assumption that we are not transpiring for truth or truthfulness in scenarios, then what...

  11. Empirical Studies in Information Visualization: Seven Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Heidi; Bertini, Enrico; Isenberg, Petra; Plaisant, Catherine; Carpendale, Sheelagh

    2012-09-01

    We take a new, scenario-based look at evaluation in information visualization. Our seven scenarios, evaluating visual data analysis and reasoning, evaluating user performance, evaluating user experience, evaluating environments and work practices, evaluating communication through visualization, evaluating visualization algorithms, and evaluating collaborative data analysis were derived through an extensive literature review of over 800 visualization publications. These scenarios distinguish different study goals and types of research questions and are illustrated through example studies. Through this broad survey and the distillation of these scenarios, we make two contributions. One, we encapsulate the current practices in the information visualization research community and, two, we provide a different approach to reaching decisions about what might be the most effective evaluation of a given information visualization. Scenarios can be used to choose appropriate research questions and goals and the provided examples can be consulted for guidance on how to design one's own study.

  12. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical......Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  13. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  14. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  15. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  16. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  17. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baramee Kheovichai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

  18. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  19. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  20. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  1. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Document Server

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  2. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  3. Generating Water Demand Scenarios Using Scaling Laws

    OpenAIRE

    Vertommen, I.; Magini, R.; Cunha, M. da Conceição

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses uncertainty inherent to water demand and proposes an approach to generate demand scenarios and calculate their probability of occurrence. Nodal water demands are modelled as correlated stochastic variables. The parameters which characterize demand vary with spatial and temporal aggregation levels. Scaling laws allow the definition of these parameters for different users and sampling rates. Different scenarios are generated by considering different combinations of demands ...

  4. Quantifying scenarios to check statistical procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beetle, T.M.

    1976-01-01

    Ways of diverting nuclear material are presented in a form that reflects the effects of the diversions on a select set of statistical accounting procedures. Twelve statistics are examined for changes in mean values under sixty diversion scenarios. Several questions about the statistics are answered using a table of quantification results. Findings include a smallest, proper subset of the set of statistics which has one or more changed mean values under each of the diversion scenarios

  5. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

    1998-01-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  6. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

    1998-07-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  7. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  8. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  9. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  10. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  11. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  12. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  13. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  14. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  15. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  16. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  17. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  18. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  19. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  20. Characteristics of hybrid scenarios in KSTAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Youngho; Byun, Cheol-Sik; Na, Yong-Su; Kstar Team

    2017-10-01

    We report the characteristics of hybrid scenarios under development in KSTAR. Firstly, detailed definition of the hybrid scenario in KSTAR is described and categorized according to the MHD activities. The discharges exhibiting H89 >1.9, betaN >2.2 sustained more than 5*tauE at q95 <6.5 without or mild sawtooth are classified into the hybrid regime. Fishbones and neoclassical tearing modes are usually observed in this regime. Improved confinement in this regime is also confirmed with comparing general H-mode in KSTAR. Secondly, several experimental approaches are presented to access the hybrid regime. Here, four different recipes are described. Thirdly, the origin of the confinement enhancement is discussed. The role of the plasma rotation is found to be small in experiments where electron cyclotron heating is applied to reduce the toroidal rotation. The pedestal enhancement is thought to be the main reason for the confinement improvement in KSTAR hybrid scenarios.

  1. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  2. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

    2009-10-01

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  3. Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Melen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

  4. The other radios: Alternative scenario in Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Rivadeneyra-Olcese

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Peruvian radio shows a huge diversity in direct proportion to its multiculturality, the same which shows a process full of different influences of social actor which have produced a complex and extremely rich scenario, that is also filled with opportunities and challenges. Beyond the great capital commercial radio are the other radios, small companies, provincial, from church or the mayor or small business owners sons of folkloric melomania, different actors with a passion to establish a new media. The multiple motivations produce a scenario with many types of radio that we wishes to start knowing.

  5. VoLTE Performance in Railway Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sniady, Aleksander; Sønderskov, Morten; Soler, José

    2015-01-01

    GSM-Railways (GSM-R) is the current standard for railway voice and data communication. GSM-R provides railway specific voice services, such as Railway Emergency Call (REC). GSM-R provides also the European Train Control System (ETCS), which offers in-cab signaling and Automatic Train Protection....... Examples of Railway Emergency Call and One-to-One Call are provided. Service performance, in terms of call setup times and voice transmission quality, is analyzed in simulation scenarios modelling two railway scenarios in Denmark....

  6. Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Somoza-Cabrera

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

  7. NSON-DK energy system scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Traber, Thure

    This report introduces the set of basic data to define scenarios with realistic yet ambitious targets for offshore wind power development in the North Sea to be used in the NSON-DK project. The assumptions are in line with those of IEA for a two degree temperature increase scenario and correspond...... with a strong recovering of coal and crude oil prices, and a pronounced increase of CO2 prices from 2020. For the countries around the North Sea that are considered, the evolution of electricity demand is projected to be strongly impacted by aggressive energy efficiency policies that lead in total to stagnating...

  8. The Impact of Gamification - Recommending Education Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many students play (computer games in their leisure time, thus acquiring skills which can easily be utilized when it comes to teaching more sophisticated knowledge. Nevertheless many educators today are wasting this opportunity. Some have evaluated gaming scenarios and methods for teaching students and have created the term “gamification”. This paper describes the history of this new term and explains the possible impact on teaching. It will take well-researched facts into consideration to discuss the potential of games. Moreover, scenarios will be illustrated and evaluated for educators to adopt and use on their own.

  9. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  10. Mediated Scenarios: The Infusion of Art and Design in Scenario Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2014-01-01

    Fellowship investigates scenarios mediated through cutting-edge gaming,visualization, simulation and design techniques. The focus on mediated practices of foresight pushes beyond an infusion of art and design into scenarios in an instrumental way, making moreaesthetically palatable futures. Rather what I...

  11. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  12. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  13. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  14. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  15. SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF THE FUTURE OF MEDICINES

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    LEUFKENS, H; HAAIJER-RUSKAMP, FM; BAKKER, A; DUKES, G

    1994-01-01

    Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device

  16. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  17. Future wind deployment scenarios for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wright, Jarrad G

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available expansion planning exercise is undertaken. The results of this show that a considerable deployment of wind into the future should be expected where in least-cost scenarios ˜15-25 GW of installed wind capacity by 2030 (˜10-20% of the energy mix), ˜40-60 GW...

  18. Beyond Data: The World of Scenario Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goens, George A.

    2001-01-01

    Leadership involves more than analyzing data and making decisions. Even the most strategically made plans can be circumvented by people or unanticipated events. Scenario planning allows administrators to weave various components (driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties) into plausible stories of what futures can unfold.…

  19. Exploring Adaptation Scenarios : Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Exploring Adaptation Scenarios : Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Climate Change in Algeria. In Algeria, climate change is associated with modifications in land use and their interaction with water, with the result that the last 20 years have seen an increase in ... A new publication explores the ethics of these relationships.

  20. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ercin, Ertug; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

    2016-01-01

    This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible

  1. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  2. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  3. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  4. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  5. International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

    1999-01-01

    The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

  6. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  7. Blindness to alternative scenarios in evidence evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn order to prevent miscarriages of justice, police, prosecution, and judges must remain open to alternative scenarios in which the suspect is in fact innocent. In recent years, however, several studies have delivered results suggesting that open-mindedness is not always standard in

  8. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  9. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  10. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  11. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  12. The Scenario of Gifted Education in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wechsler, Solange Muglia; Fleith, Denise de Souza

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of gifted education in Brazil. A scenario of the education of the gifted is presented, including the official concept of giftedness as well as programs and services available to emphasize important contributions to the area. Although there are considerable advances regarding policies, practices,…

  13. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  14. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  15. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  16. Scenarios of land cover in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

    2007-02-01

    A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

  17. Chemical Data Reporting Byproduct and Recycling Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document addresses a series of 18 industry scenarios and questions related to EPA’s Chemical Data Reporting (CDR) rule. The primary goal of this document is to help the regulated community comply with the requirements of the CDR rule.

  18. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

    2010-01-01

    or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic......In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  19. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  20. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  1. Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

    2016-06-01

    The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

  2. FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhiy Nozhenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

  3. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

    2003-01-01

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  4. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    Transport sector’s fuel mix which is dominated by the fossil fuel imposes multiple external costs like energy security, air quality and climate change. In this study, alternate future scenarios are designed to explore the transitions of national transport system (till 2050). Several policy options...... are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...... and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...

  5. Scenarios for the Strategic Planning of Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker Grienitz

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Technology scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. A multidimensional requirement catalogue for specific product- market- combinations represents the fundamental building block for the ranking of particular material- components and technologies. The following analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst them provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios and roadmap and a regular monitoring process are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation technology strategies.

  6. A string scenario for inflationary cosmology

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, Jonathan Richard; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V; Ellis, J; Mavromatos, N E; Nanopoulos, D V

    1995-01-01

    We describe a scenario for inflation in the framework of non-critical string theory, which does not employ an inflaton field. There is an exponential expansion of the volume of the Universe, induced by enormous entropy production in the early stages of cosmological evolution. This is associated with the loss of information carried by global string modes that cross the particle horizon. It is the same loss of information that induces irreversible time flow when target time is identified with the world-sheet Liouville mode. The resulting scenario for inflation is described by a string analogue of the Fokker-Planck equation that incorporates diffusion and dissipative effects. Cosmological density perturbations are naturally small.

  7. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy......Transport sector’s fuel mix which is dominated by the fossil fuel imposes multiple external costs like energy security, air quality and climate change. In this study, alternate future scenarios are designed to explore the transitions of national transport system (till 2050). Several policy options...... are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...

  8. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...... framework, the “Fingerplan 2007”. We test three policy scenarios and analyse different effects on urban growth by using the Metronamica model from the Dutch-based Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS). We analyse the possibilities to elaborate a practical and useful outcome within a relatively...

  9. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  10. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  11. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  12. BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

    1986-07-01

    This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

  13. Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

  14. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  15. River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. © 2011 IEEE

  16. APPLIANCE OF SCENARIO PLANNING METHOD FOR RUSSIAN AIRLINES ACTIVITY

    OpenAIRE

    G. V. Kreneva

    2015-01-01

    The article examines scenario planning as a tool for long-term forecasting of airlines activity in an uncertainty. This method is compared to linear programming (linear scheduling method) with their advantages and disadvantages being discussed. Scenario analysis is shown as a main tool in scenario-based forecasting. The scheme of scenario development is performed. Scenario planning experience in European airlines is considered. Uncertainty factors faced by Russian airlines are analysed. In th...

  17. Hydrologic Scenario Uncertainty in a Comprehensive Assessment of Hydrogeologic Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, T. J.; Meyer, P. D.; Ye, M.; Neuman, S. P.

    2005-12-01

    A method to jointly assess hydrogeologic conceptual model and parameter uncertainties has recently been developed based on a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging (MLBMA). Evidence from groundwater model post-audits suggests that errors in the projected future hydrologic conditions of a site (hydrologic scenarios) are a significant source of model predictive errors. MLBMA can be extended to include hydrologic scenario uncertainty, along with conceptual model and parameter uncertainties, in a systematic and quantitative assessment of predictive uncertainty. Like conceptual model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty is represented by a discrete set of alternative scenarios. The effect of scenario uncertainty on model predictions is quantitatively assessed by conducting an MLBMA analysis under each scenario. We demonstrate that posterior model probability is a function of the scenario only through the possible dependence of prior model probabilities on the scenario. As a result, the model likelihoods (computed from calibration results), are not a function of the scenario and do not need to be recomputed under each scenario. MLBMA results for each scenario are weighted by the scenario probability and combined to render a joint assessment of scenario, conceptual model, and parameter uncertainty. Like model probability, scenario probability represents a subjective evaluation, in this case of the plausibility of the occurrence of the specific scenario. Because the scenarios describe future conditions, the scenario probabilities represent prior estimates and cannot be updated using the (past) system state data as is used to compute posterior model probabilities. Assessment of hydrologic scenario uncertainty is illustrated using a site-specific application considering future changes in land use, dam operations, and climate. Estimation of scenario probabilities and consideration of scenario characteristics (e.g., timing, magnitude) are discussed.

  18. Energy Scenarios For A Sustainable Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Chiuta

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available It is clear that the future is not simplysomething already predetermined that we must acceptblindly: rather, it is open and to a large extent determinedby the course of actions we decide to take. For thisreason, we need to look at the future and its uncertaintiesin an articulated fashion, developing specific tools toconsider both how the future might unfold if we do notact and how we might like the future to unfold if actionwere to be taken.As demonstrated on valuable intellectual exercise forlooking into an uncertain future involves the developmentof “scenarios” intended as logical and plausibleconjectures about how fundamental drivers will affectglobal societies, economics, resource use and theenvironment. The literature review shows a multiplicity ofscenarios, conducted as different scales ranging from thenational to the global scale, with different time horizonsand with a focus on different strategic issues.Exploratory scenarios help prepare for events that,without representing a straight-line continuation of pasttrends, are plausible and entirely possible. Exploratoryscenarios can help a lot to accelerate and calibrate theresponse to new developments, as well as providing astrategic framework technology development policy.Normative scenario has, as its goal, the evolution of adesirable future rather than a future inexorably imposedupon us by the inertia of system. Building a normativescenario requires the creators to clearly define thedesirable characteristics of their future, and to expressthis future in terms of measurable targets.The use of such a scenario process lies as much in theissues it requires us to comfort as the precise details isgenerates. The future will not look exactly like the oneenvisioned: other priorities will intercede and nationalconditions and circumstances will dictate the specifics ofthe energy policies that may be adopted. But such aprocess of interacting around scenarios can providevaluable guidance as to

  19. Scenarios as methods of Community Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    The significance of the scenario workshop is the combination of creativity, reflection and action helping the participants to imaging and realise desirable futures. It can contribute to fill the gaps between visions of the future and the present situation, giving the participants knowledge and po...... and power to act themselves instead of just being passively adjusted to the ongoing changes of their organisation or community....

  20. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  1. Investment scenarios for Chinese power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    An analysis is provided of returns for investment in power plants in China and India. Three sample investment scenarios are compared to illustrate the relative merits of each financing arrangement. The best returns would seem to be offered by a mix of debt and equity financing. The potential problem of gradual currency depreciation can be overcome by early cash payments. Foreign investment in China's power generation industry would be more readily forthcoming if easier access to debt finance were available. (UK)

  2. The climatic scenario of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deque, M.

    2007-01-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  3. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  4. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  5. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  6. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  7. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar......'s contribution is to suggest how scenario planning can engage with design, resulting in new opportunities for research and projects. These modes of engagement provide a framing to explore dialogues between other management disciplines.......This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinary...... management research, which struggles to connect research and practice. The authors describe how they brought the two fields together. We outline how we convened, designed and facilitated the fourth Oxford Futures Forum held in May 2014. This event brought together leading practitioners and researchers...

  8. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  9. Local perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chloe B. Wardropper

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Contrasting social-ecological scenarios can help stakeholders envision potential futures and navigate change and uncertainty. Scenario developers integrate stakeholder perceptions into storylines to increase scenario relevance and plausibility while relying on archetypes of change from scenario literature to enrich narratives. This research examines the contributions of local perspectives and global archetypes to scenario development through a case study of a regional scenario project, Yahara 2070, in Wisconsin, USA. Interviews with 50 Yahara watershed stakeholders and 5 members of the project's scenario development team were examined to compare themes from scenario archetypes with local perspectives on how change is expected to occur. We next examined how these two sources of inspiration for trajectories of change were used in the development of the Yahara 2070 scenarios. Both global archetypes and local stakeholders emphasized social values, market forces, and policy reform as influences in determining the future, which were reflected in Yahara 2070. However, stakeholders were less likely to mention institutional breakdown, an important theme from the global scenarios literature that was included in Yahara 2070. This research offers a new approach to analyzing similarities and differences between scenarios' narratives and local perspectives. Scenario development may involve tensions between the goals of reflecting stakeholder views and including narratives from the global scenarios literature that may be useful for creating divergent model trajectories and addressing dramatic change into the future. To improve scenario development, scenario projects should document the development process in academic and nonacademic venues, explicitly highlighting sources and constraints in storyline development.

  10. Analysing Scenarios of Cell Population System Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Vinogradova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers an isolated population system consisting of two types of human stem cells, namely normal cells and cells with chromosomal abnormalities (abnormal ones. The system develops in the laboratory (in vitro. The article analyses possible scenarios of the population system development, which are implemented for different values of its parameters. An investigated model of the cell population system takes into account the limited resources. It is represented as a system of two nonlinear differential equations with continuous right-hand part. The model is considered with non-negative values of the variables; the domain is divided into four sets. The model feature is that in each set the right part of the system of differential equations has a different form.The article analyses a quality of the rest points of the system in each of four sets. The analytical conditions for determination of the number of rest points and the quality of rest points, with, at least, one zero coordinate, are obtained.It is shown that the population system under study cannot have more than two points of rest, both coordinates of which are positive (non-zero. It is difficult to determine quality of such rest points depending on the model parameters due to the complexity of the expressions, which define the systems of the first approximation, recorded in a neighborhood of these points of rest. Numerical research results of the stability of these points of rest are obtained, and phase portraits with the specified specific values of the system parameters are demonstrated. The main scenarios for the cell population development are adduced. Analysis of mathematical model shows that a cell population system may remain the system consisting of populations of normal and abnormal cells; it can degenerate into a population of abnormal cells or perish. The scenario, in which there is only the population of normal cells, is not implemented. The numerical simulation

  11. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  12. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  13. The HayWired earthquake scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  14. On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessai, S.; Xianfu Lu; Risbey, J.S.

    2005-01-01

    Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (author)

  15. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya; Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa

    2017-01-01

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  16. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  17. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  18. Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnas Stanaitis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

  19. Classifying network attack scenarios using an ontology

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Heerden, RP

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available on the web soon after the breach. Kelley et al used these publicly available lists for testing password cracking algorithms (Kelley, 2011). 5.3.6 Snooping for secrets This scenario represents curious individuals nosing around for secrets. Gary Mc... and again): Measuring password strength by simulating password-cracking algorithms (CMU-CyLab-11-008). Lancor, L., & Workman, R. (2007). Using Google hacking to enhance defense strategies. ACM SIGCSE Bulletin, 39(1), 491-495. Lau, F., Rubin, S. H...

  20. Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volovik, Grigory

    2008-08-28

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally four dimensional; the Universe is naturally flat; the cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; the underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; 'quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; and there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity, etc.

  1. Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaric, Mario

    2010-09-15

    Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

  2. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.

    2010-01-01

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario

  3. Possible Scenarios for the LHC Luminosity Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2107593

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we consider possible scenarios to upgrade the LHC luminosity beyond 1034 cm−2s−1. By pushing the accelerator parameters to the ultimate performance we can increase to 1.7 1011 the bunch population and eventually reach a peak luminosity of 2.3×1034 cm−2s−1. To go beyond, a considerable improvement of the LHC parameters, such as ß*, beam intensity, bunch length, number of circulating bunches is required. Finally, the upgrade of the injector complex and of the injection energy is another important ingredient to upgrade both peak and integrated luminosity up to an order of magnitude above the nominal value.

  4. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  5. Using game scenarios for teaching novice programmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjie Hu

    Full Text Available As programming educators we need to find ways to engage our students. The students we see today have been called the Nintendo generation. Such students are continually exposed to fast-paced sound, graphics, animation and games. It can be argued that these are the kinds of things that Nintendo generation students want to develop when learning computer science. As a result, computer programming educators have started to use games to engage and motivate students who are learning programming. However, there are difficulties in teaching novices to program using games. In many cases, it is too complicated for novices to begin programming with the extensive packages, libraries, and available object oriented languages when they are required to develop games. Moreover, the games development may seem trivial to the Nintendo generation if we do not include artificial intelligence (AI. Unfortunately, AI algorithm development is not appropriate for novices who are still trying to grasp the simple syntax and semantics of programming. This paper reports on research that explores how educators can motivate students to learn programming by using simple game scenarios. A revised version of Bloom\\'s taxonomy is employed as a framework to aid in the creation of teaching resources that utilise game scenarios as exemplars, exercises and assessments. Finally, some recommendations are made on how the teaching of programming might be improved through a game approach to teaching and learning.

  6. Knowledge Management in Economic Downturn: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mehta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge management is becoming an indispensable aspect of most of the modern business organizations. It is considered as a corporate cost savings process to augment performance capabilities with broader availability and utilization of major corporate knowledge assets. Knowledge management is the basis of all planning, all development and all progress ofan organization. It is one of the significant ingredients, which makes the accessibility of acceptance with understanding of learning. With recession encompassing the globe, theorganizations are passionately engaged in cost cutting practices to maintain profitability and competitiveness. When enterprises realize that developing and sharing knowledge is pivotal tosustain a cutting edge, the management can decide to place knowledge management high on their agenda- especially during economic turmoil. The Indian organizations have exceedingly done well during the economic turmoil. The present paper is an attempt to study knowledge management during recession in Indian scenario. Major challenges faced by the organizations are highlighted along with strategies to overcome such challenges are presented by the authors.Keywords: knowledge, knowledge management, recession, innovation, Indian scenario.

  7. CP Violation in Heavy MSSM Higgs Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Carena, M; Lee, J S; Pilaftsis, A; Wagner, C E M

    2016-01-01

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M_S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M_H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG...

  8. SKB/TVO ice age scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlbom, K.; Aeikaes, T.; Ericsson, L.O.

    1991-06-01

    Ice ages have repeatedly occurred throughout geological history, and it is likely that they will also occur in the time-span considered for the disposal of nuclear fuel. Based on the present status of knowledge, this report discusses when future ice ages will occur and the possible changes in the geosphere that might be of importance for repository performance. The report is intended to be used as a basis when developing scenarios for safety analysis of final repository for spent nuclear fuel. Both the ACLIN and Imbrie and Imbrie models suggest stadials (glaciations) at c. 20000, 60000 and 100000 years from now. The ACLIN model also suggests a glaciation period around 5000 years ahead. The next interglacial period will occur at c. 75000 years, according to the Imbrie and Imbrie model, while the ACLIN model suggests that interglacial conditions will not appear until 125000 years form now. Other models strongly support the 60000 year glaciation event. To some extent there is also support for the 20000 and 5000 year events. For the purpose of the SKB/TVO scenario it is suggested that smaller or large glaciations will occur at 5000, 20000 and 60000 years form now. Following the last glaciation, interglacial conditions will prevail at 75000 years. Thus after the first glaciation (5000 years) this is the earliest time when most part of Sweden and Finland will once again be resettled by man. (25 refs.)

  9. Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

    2017-12-01

    Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A negawatt scenario for 2005 - 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salomon, Thierry [Izuba Energies, Meze (France); Couturier, Christian [Solagro, Toulouse (France); Jedliczka, Marc [Hespul, Villeurbanne (France); Letz, Thomas [Asder, Chambery (France); Lebot, Benoit [United Nations Development Programme - Global Environment Facility Unit, New York (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The sad perspective of climate change combined with the foreseen depletion of fossil energy in the coming decades impose a radical change in the way we collect, transform, distribute, use and save energy in our modern economies. Over the past few years, many European Governments have made calls and announced plans to reduce by 60 to 80% their national Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2050. The present paper summarises the approach, the assumptions and the findings of a scenario performed by an multidisciplinary team for defining a sustainable energy path for a major European country. The scenario uniquely relies on three complementary steps: energy sufficiency, energy efficiency and renewable energy. The analysis clearly indicates the importance of engaging major energy conservation programmes now and in all sectors of the economy if we want to indeed influence greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and longer term. The paper describes and discusses the key policies that need to be put in place for each sector in the short term. The paper concludes on side benefits of renewed energy conservation efforts (like perspective on local employments) as well as the complementarities and the synergies of policies and measures between local, national and European levels.

  11. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  12. Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, Graham

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

  13. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  14. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  15. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  16. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  17. Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Warner, Norman; Burkman, Lisa; Biron, H. C

    2008-01-01

    ...) scenario and the methodology used to generate and validate the scenario. The face of military team collaboration has changed due to gathering intelligence from broader and more diverse sources...

  18. Unlocking the potential barriers on SMEs’ uptake of scenario planning

    OpenAIRE

    Nyuur, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Purpose:\\ud The purpose of this paper is to discuss the value of scenario planning to small and medium size enterprises (SMEs), and further examine the challenges constraining the uptake of scenario planning by SMEs. \\ud \\ud Design/methodology/approach:\\ud A conceptual review of the literature on scenario planning in SMEs intended to unpack and capture the possible underlying reasons accounting for the limited uptake of scenario planning by managers/owners of SMEs has informed the formulation...

  19. User constraints for reliable user-defined smart home scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Guilly, Thibaut; Nielsen, Michael Kvist; Pedersen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Defining control scenarios in a smart home is a difficult task for end users. In particular, one concern is that user-defined scenarios could lead to unsafe or undesired state of the system. To help them explore scenario specifications, we propose in this paper a system that enables specification...

  20. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  1. Interaction protocols for cooperative merging and lane reduction scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Semsar Kazerooni, E.; Ploeg, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the interaction protocols developed for execution of two common scenarios in daily traffic using cooperative automated vehicles. The first proposed scenario addresses merging of a (semi-)automated car on a highway within a platoon of (semi-)automated vehicles. The second scenario

  2. New trends in transportation and land use scenario planning : five case studies of regional and local scenario planning efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    This report summarizes important findings from a literature review on scenario planning processes and a scan of stakeholders. It also presents case studies on innovative, next generation scenario planning efforts. The project team defined next ...

  3. Geoprospective: from the acquired data, to the scenarios; Geoprospective: des donnees acquises, aux scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escalier des Orres, P. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Dept. d`Evaluation de Surete; Blanc, P.L. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Dept. de Protection de l`Environnement et des Installations

    1994-06-01

    The present paper discusses the relationships between the French regulatory safety rule for radwaste deep disposal (RFS no. III.2.f), the geological (external geodynamics) data available when the rule was discussed, and the present geoprospective studies and scenarios to be taken into account in the safety assessment of an underground disposal site. (authors). 11 refs., 3 figs.

  4. Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eason, Martin P

    2013-01-01

    Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise.

  5. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    stand still was initiated. Furthermore, infected herds were depopulated and a 3 km detection zone and a 10 km surveillance zone were implemented around all infected herds. Within the protections zones, all herds were simulated to be clinically surveyed twice, first within 7 days after implementing...... the zone, and second 21 days later. Sheep within the zone were simulated to be tested. Within the surveillance zone, all herds were simulated to be clinically surveyed within 7 days, and sheep within the zone were simulated to be tested within 7 days and again before lifting the zone. Herds, which had...... in ringzones of varying radii around infected herds. In alternative scenarios, we tested the effect of depopulating in zones of 500, 1000 and 1500 meters from infected herds. Depopulation was started on day 14 after detection of the first herd, or after detecting 10, 20, 30 or 50 infected herds. In some...

  6. Traumatic intrusions as 'worse case scenario's'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merckelbach, H; Muris, P; Horselenberg, R; Rassin, E

    1998-11-01

    While some clinicians assume that traumatic intrusions are historically accurate revisualizations of traumatic incidents, others have suggested that these types of intrusions may represent a worse case scenario (i.e. exaggerated) version of the trauma. To explore this issue, a survey was conducted among undergraduate students (N = 189). Of the 69 respondents who had been the victim of or witness to a relatively recent trauma, 15 (22%) reported an exaggerated perception of the traumatic incident. Exaggerated intrusions were found to have more flashback qualities and tended to have a higher frequency than 'realistic' intrusions. These findings are well in line with the idea that intrusions are not necessarily veridical copies of traumatic events.

  7. Multiple Scenario Generation of Subsurface Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cordua, Knud Skou

    In geosciences, as well as in astrophysics, direct observations of a studied physical system and objects are not always accessible. Instead, indirect observations have to be used in order to obtain information about the unknown system, which leads to an inverse problem. Such geoscientific inverse....... Finally, the probabilistic formulation provides a means of analyzing uncertainties and potential multiple-scenario solutions to be used for risk assessments in relation to, e.g., reservoir characterization and forecasting. Prior models rely on information from old data sets or expert knowledge in form of......, e.g., training images that expresses structural, lithological, or textural features. Statistics obtained from these types of observations will be referred to as sample models. Geostatistical sampling algorithms use a sample model as input and produce multiple realizations of the model parameters...

  8. Effective Scenarios for Exploring Asteroid Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Pamela E.; Clark, C.; Weisbin, C.

    2010-10-01

    In response to the proposal that asteroids be the next targets for exploration, we attempt to develop scenarios for exploring previously mapped asteroid 433 Eros, harnessing our recent experience gained planning such activity for return to the lunar surface. The challenges faced in planning Apollo led to the development of a baseline methodology for extraterrestrial field science. What `lessons learned’ can be applied for asteroids? Effective reconnaissance (advanced mapping at tetherable’ and would most likely `station keep’ to maintain a position. The most convenient local mobility mechanism for astronauts/robots would be `hand over hand’ above the surface at a field station supplemented by a `tetherless’ (small rocket-pack) control system for changing station or return to vehicle. Thus, we assume similar mobility constraints (meters to hundreds of meters at a local station, kilometers between stations) as those used for Apollo. We also assume the vehicle could `station keep’ at more than one location separated by tens of kilometers distance.

  9. Nuclear fuel cycle transition scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    Future nuclear fuel cycles could effectively address radioactive waste issues with the implementation of partitioning and transmutation (P and T). Previous studies have defined the infrastructure requirements for several key technical approaches. While these studies have proven extremely valuable, several countries have also recognised the complex, dynamic nature of the infrastructure problem: severe new issues arise when attempting to transit from current open or partially closed cycles to a final equilibrium or burn-down mode. While the issues are country-specific when addressed in detail, it is believed that there exists a series of generic issues related only to the current situation and to the desired end point. These issues are critical to implementing a sustainable nuclear energy infrastructure. The present report focuses on the definition of key issues, the assessment of technologies and national scenario assessments. (author)

  10. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  11. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  12. Fermi Bubbles: Formation Scenarios and Substructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkbeiner, Douglas P.

    2013-04-01

    The Milky Way has gamma-ray lobes extending several kpc above and below the Galactic center, known as the "Fermi Bubbles." Although the Galactic center is quiet today, these bubbles are a hint of past AGN activity, a burst of star formation, or some other dramatic energy injection. In the three years since their discovery, they have been modeled analytically and numerically, and additional radio and x-ray data have been obtained, leading to a number of ideas about their origins. I will review the latest data and report on some possible formation scenarios. I will also give an update on our tentative claim last year of a linear jet-like structure within the bubbles (arXiv:1205.5852).

  13. Calculation of inherent boron dilution scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kereszturi, A.; Toth, E.L.; Telbisz, M.; Trosztel, I.

    1999-01-01

    Two inherent boron dilution scenarios have been investigated in the frame of the PH2.08 PHARE project supported by the EC[1]. The Small Break LOCA (SBLOCA) initiating event was investigated by the SMABRE[2] and ATHLET[3] codes, while the SMATRA[4] code was used for the study of an ATWS initiating event. The results show that in case of SBLOCA slug formation is possible if the operator starts to cool down the secondary loop but the slug does not enter the core because it is removed by the Low Pressure Safety Injection. In case of ATWS, it was concluded that the maximum void fraction in the hot leg remained below 95% and that there was sufficient water in the two-phase flow to prevent formation of un borated slugs. Furthermore at the time the condensation of steam was already impossible in the steam generators because of drying out. (Authors)

  14. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  15. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A.

    2005-07-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator-launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required Δv, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  16. Advanced steady-state operating scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nevins, W.M.; Bulmer, R.H.; Pearlstein, L.D.; Haney, S.W.; Manickam, J.

    1993-01-01

    The goal for advanced steady-state operation in ITER should be to demonstrate the operation of the plasma core for a steady-state fusion reactor. To accomplish this the authors must develop steady-state operating scenarios at high beta for high fusion power density, low auxiliary power requirements (Q CD ≥ 25, where Q CD triple-bond P fusion/P CD and P DC is the power required for sustaining the plasma current) for low recirculating power requirements, and at moderate safety factor (q ψ ≤ 4.5) to minimize the cost for the tokamak core of a steady-state demonstration power reactor based on the operating modes demonstrated in ITER. The key to achieving steady-state operation at high fusion power in ITER will be the development of operating scenarios with very high bootstrap current fractions (f BS ≥ 90%) in which the radial profile of the bootstrap current density is well aligned with that of the total plasma current density, and for which the MHD β-limit exceeds β n * = 0.05 T-m/MA. They are in the process of developing such operating modes for ITER. In section 1 they propose two advanced steady-state operating points; a preliminary operating point that was the basis for the MHD studies reported in section 2, and a second operating point that has been optimized based on the authors studies to date. In section 2 they present calculations indicating that the initial operating point is stable to MHD ballooning and low-n kink modes (with a conducting wall at r = 1.25a) up to β n * ∼ 6 x 10 -2 T - m/MA. In section 3 they present a free-boundary MHD equilibrium, and show that advanced steady-state operating modes are compatible with the ITER poloidal field system and diverter

  17. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  18. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. c2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  20. The Negawatt association reevaluates its energy scenario; L'association negaWatt reactualise son scenario energetique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    In 2003 the association Negawatt imagined an energy policy scenario (2000-2050) which aims to divide by four the greenhouse gases emission. This scenario has just been completed for the 2006 edition with less growth evolution. This scenario expects the gradually shutdown of nuclear power plants for 2035, without the replacement by power plants of third generation. (A.L.B.)

  1. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  2. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2 a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837-845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634-647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15-30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final

  3. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  4. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  5. The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  6. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E A

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  7. Interactive Language Learning through Speech-Enabled Virtual Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazel Morton

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evaluation of an educational game designed to give learners of foreign languages the opportunity to practice their spoken language skills. Within the speech interactive Computer-Assisted Language Learning (CALL program, scenarios are presented in which learners interact with virtual characters in the target language using speech recognition technology. Two types of interactive scenarios with virtual characters are presented as part of the game: the one-to-one scenarios which take the form of practice question and answer scenarios where the learner interacts with one virtual character and the interactive scenario which is an immersive contextualised scenario where the learner interacts with two or more virtual characters within the scene to complete a (task-based communicative goal. The study presented here compares learners’ subjective attitudes towards the different scenarios. In addition, the study investigates the performance of the speech recognition component in this game. Forty-eight students of English as a Foreign Language (EFL took part in the evaluation. Results indicate that learners’ subjective ratings for the contextualised interactive scenario are higher than for the one-to-one, practice scenarios. In addition, recognition performance was better for these interactive scenarios.

  8. EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

  9. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chai, W.T; Xiao, B.J; Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  10. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  11. Geoprospective: from acquired data to scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escalier des Orres, P.; Blanc, P.L.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the relationships between the French regulatory safety rule for radioactive waste deep disposal (RFS N. III.2.f), the geological (external geodynamics) data available when the rule was discussed, and the present geoprospective studies and scenarios to be taken into account in the safety assessment of an underground disposal site. Three periods are considered in the study: the initial period (0-500 years AP) during which only water circulations and heat transfers are considered in the waste-rock interaction problem; the permanent regime period (500-10000 years AP) and the subsequent period (10000-50000 years AP) during which changes in landscape morphology due to human activity and climate changes have to be considered. In particular, global climatic oscillations can lead to glaciations with an amplitude equivalent to those known for the Quaternary period and with possible influence on waste disposals integrity. The simulation of an ice-cap development over Europe has been attempted but no convincing model could be obtained so-far. (J.S.). 11 refs., 3 figs

  12. Scenarios for upgrading the LHC injectors

    CERN Document Server

    Garoby, R

    2007-01-01

    The presence of a powerful accelerator complex that could serve as injector has been instrumental in the decision to build the LHC at CERN. This existing complex has now confirmed its capability, having demonstrated that it is able to deliver beam with the nominal characteristics as well as numerous other types of beams which will be essential for tuning-in, commissioning and operating the future collider for physics in its first years. However it is also clear that the existing LHC injectors will not be able to deliver beam with the ultimate characteristics and that they suffer from reliability problems due to their age. An analysis has therefore been done by the working group in charge of "Proton Accelerators of the Future" (PAF) to determine a logical evolution of the accelerator complex, considering the needs of LHC and of the other potential future physics experiments at CERN. As a result, scenarios for a staged upgrade have been proposed, involving the progressive replacement of all the low energy accel...

  13. Radiological accidents, scenarios, planning and answers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solis Delgado, Alexander.

    2008-01-01

    Radiological accidents, scenarios and the importance of a good planning to prevent and control these types of accidents are presented. The radiation can be only one of the risks in an accident, most of dominant radiological risks are not radiological (fire, toxic gases, etc.). The common causes of radiological accidents, potential risks such as external irradiation, internal contamination and the environment pollution are highlighted. In addition, why accidents happen and how they evolve is explained. It describes some incidents with the radiation occurred in Costa Rica from 1993 to 2007. The coordination of emergency management in Costa Rica in relation to a radiological accident, and some mechanisms of action that have practiced in other places are focuses. Among the final considerations are the need to finalize the national plan for radiological emergencies as a tool of empowerment for the teams of emergency care and the availability of information. Likewise the processes of communication, coordination and cooperation to avoid chaos, confusion and crisis are also highlighted [es

  14. Technological mediation: new scenarios for teaching practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry Alfonso Muñoz Rojas

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to elucidate and reflect on the dimensions configured in a transformation of teaching practices. Such practices can lead to set new educational scenarios based on technological mediation. This paper is the result of a qualitative analysis of concepts referred to in researches between 2009 and 2013. Likewise it makes part of the project: ‘Theoretical Approaches of Research Projects on Mediation of Information and Communication Technologies: A Configuration for a Conceptual Approach’, product of the announcement # 9 by Universidad Santo Tomas’ Distance Learning – Open University Vice Chancellor Office (VUAD. It is inquired, among other emerging categories, about autonomous and collaborative learning, the role of online tutors, the social, teaching, and cognitive presence, the collective intelligence and the digital education. Methodologically dissertation was based on the use of ATLAS.ti – program that strengthened the process of ordering and organizing the information from various sources, and helped to determine the categorization and construction of semantic maps. Finally, conclusions and questions about prospects for technology and education are presente.

  15. Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

    Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

  16. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  17. Scenarios for a deregulated, restructured electric industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, G.C.

    1998-01-01

    Deregulation is moving rapidly on some fronts, while opposition by some affected parties is growing. The restructured industry is emerging, in the growth of new businesses such as power marketing and energy services, and also in reorganization by utilities to prepare for the future under deregulation. The market levels and opportunities will depend not only on the decisions of individual state and Federal regulators, but also on those of utilities, power marketers, developers and others who can drive the direction and the outcome of the changes. Scenarios for deregulation and restructuring are examined, from a rapid pace toward full competition, to a process slowed or blocked by conflicting interests and opposition from parties bent on preserving existing positions. A key development already underway with expected major impact on the future of the industry will be major consolidations, including convergence of electric and gas supply, and emergence of very large and powerful players. The generation business and energy supply to customers, based on aggressive marketing will lead the way

  18. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-01-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  19. HYPERSPECTRAL ANOMALY DETECTION IN URBAN SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Rejas Ayuga

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spectral features of reflectance and emissivity in the pattern recognition of urban materials in several single hyperspectral scenes through a comparative analysis of anomaly detection methods and their relationship with city surfaces with the aim to improve information extraction processes. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR, shortwave infrared (SWIR and thermal infrared (TIR from hyperspectral data cubes of AHS sensor and HyMAP and MASTER of two cities, Alcalá de Henares (Spain and San José (Costa Rica respectively, have been used. In this research it is assumed no prior knowledge of the targets, thus, the pixels are automatically separated according to their spectral information, significantly differentiated with respect to a background, either globally for the full scene, or locally by image segmentation. Several experiments on urban scenarios and semi-urban have been designed, analyzing the behaviour of the standard RX anomaly detector and different methods based on subspace, image projection and segmentation-based anomaly detection methods. A new technique for anomaly detection in hyperspectral data called DATB (Detector of Anomalies from Thermal Background based on dimensionality reduction by projecting targets with unknown spectral signatures to a background calculated from thermal spectrum wavelengths is presented. First results and their consequences in non-supervised classification and extraction information processes are discussed.

  20. SKB/TVO ice age scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlbom, K.; Aeikaes, T.; Ericsson, L.

    1991-10-01

    Ice ages have repeatedly occurred throughout geological history, and it is likely that they will also occur in the future. The report discusses the principal processes predicted to occur during future glaciations, and which are likely to be of importance for a repository. The report presents a synthesis of the results in a form of a scenario from two state-of-the-art reports, working meetings and a seminar. Based on the present status of knowledge the climate at Scandinavia will gradually become colder permitting the growth of an ice sheet at 5000 years in the mountainous area of Sweden. After a minor warmer period fully stadial conditions will occur around 20 000 years from now, and after interstadial with dry and cold climate again after 60000 years from now. During the latter glaciation ice thickness at Stockholm-Helsinki region is 2500 m. Interstadial conditions similar to the climate of northern Sweden/Finland will prevail after 75000 years from now. The main changes caused by ice sheet are the downwarping/uplift of the crust and changes in the sea level. In addition, changes in groundwater head and flux are foreseen. As a response from climatic changes tundra and permafrost will appear

  1. Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devezas, T.; LePoire, D.; Matias, J.C.O.; Silva, A.M.P. [University Beira Interior, Covilha (Portugal). Faculty of Engineering

    2008-02-15

    Primary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher-Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid-1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. However, a major factor in energy use dynamics in this recent period was substitution of conservation and efficiency for actual fuel use. The energy efficiency is measured as the ratio of economic activity to the rate of energy use (energy intensity). To incorporate these data into the logistic analysis, a method for estimating the fraction of energy saved by the increased efficiency was used. With this interpretation, energy efficiency fits within the substitution model. Furthermore, to identify indications of future energy scenarios, as well as to test the logistic substitution analysis, another statistical approach using ternary diagrams was developed. The consistent results from both logistic substitution and statistical analysis are compared with recent energy projections, trends in decarbonization, Kondratieff waves, and other efficiency measures. While the specific future mix of renewables and nuclear energy sources is uncertain, the more general logistic dynamics pattern of the energy system seems to be continuing as it has for about 150 years now.

  2. Dabigatran and myocardial infarction: a foggy scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pontillo D

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Daniele Pontillo,1 Nicolino Patruno21Division of Cardiology, Hospital Complex Belcolle, Pavilion Montefiascone Montefiascone, Italy; 2Division of Cardiology, San Giuseppe Hospital, Albano Laziale (RM, ItalyThe pooled analysis from Clemens et al1 furnishes an up-to-date contribution on the scenario of the risk of myocardial infarction (MI of patients on dabigatran in any disease setting, formulating a "non-guilty" sentence in favor of dabigatran in terms of net clinical benefit, even though the authors did find an absolute increase in MIs. We believe that this contribution may represent further evidence favoring the overall efficacy of dabigatran, in agreement with data from Hohnloser et al2 who analyzed the cardiovascular (CV ischemic outcomes from the RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-term anticoagulant therapy study and finding no statistically significant difference of MI between dabigatran and the comparison treatment, and with those from Dans et al3 who considered solely CV mortality with no further discrimination. Essentially, this represents the leitmotif of the last three years after the revised adjudication of cardiovascular events in the RE-LY study4 with a non-significant increase in MIs with dabigatran at any dose (for 150 mg twice a day, relative risk 1.27, 0.94–1.71, P=0.12.View original paper by Clemens and colleagues.

  3. Inflationary scenario from higher curvature warped spacetime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banerjee, Narayan [Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Department of Physical Sciences, Nadia, West Bengal (India); Paul, Tanmoy [Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science, Department of Theoretical Physics, Kolkata (India)

    2017-10-15

    We consider a five dimensional warped spacetime, in presence of the higher curvature term like F(R) = R + αR{sup 2} in the bulk, in the context of the two-brane model. Our universe is identified with the TeV scale brane and emerges as a four dimensional effective theory. From the perspective of this effective theory, we examine the possibility of ''inflationary scenario'' by considering the on-brane metric ansatz as an FRW one. Our results reveal that the higher curvature term in the five dimensional bulk spacetime generates a potential term for the radion field. Due to the presence of radion potential, the very early universe undergoes a stage of accelerated expansion and, moreover, the accelerating period of the universe terminates in a finite time. We also find the spectral index of curvature perturbation (n{sub s}) and the tensor to scalar ratio (r) in the present context, which match with the observational results based on the observations of Planck (Astron. Astrophys. 594, A20, 2016). (orig.)

  4. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: praroberta@uol.com.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  5. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sevilla, J.

    2010-01-01

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about ±2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  6. ENEL's DSM actions in the international scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliva, P.; Russo, S.

    1997-01-01

    In the framework of national policies which, since the end of the 70s, have had the target of making consumers rationally use the natural sources, in particular energy, and in the pursuit of environmental goals, the Governments and the utilities have driven several DSM (Demand-Side Management) actions, in many countries. The activities implemented by ENEL have included the analysis of the different components of the energy chain, from the primary sources to the final uses in industry, agriculture, residential and commercial buildings. This is in order to improve the energy efficiency by new electrotechnologies and more effective appliances. ENEL has carried out commercial initiatives by specific contractual agreements based on the marginal costs of the electric service. The paper explains ENEL's strategies and the actions implemented by the utility on DMS; the results in terms of energy efficiency, electric demand dynamics and of load curve changing are also explained. Finally the paper explores the DSM perspectives in the Italian future scenario, where energy companies will act in a more competitive market. (author)

  7. Recent scenario of obesity and male fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, K K; Chambial, S; Dwivedi, S; Misra, S; Sharma, P

    2014-11-01

    The aim of this review was to provide current scenario linking obesity and male fertility. Obesity has been linked to male fertility because of lifestyle changes, internal hormonal environment alterations, and sperm genetic factors. A few studies assessing the impact of obesity on sperm genetic factor have been published, but they did not lead to a strong consensus. Our objective was to explore further the relationship between sperm genetic factor and obesity. There are emerging facts that obesity negatively affects male reproductive potential not only by reducing sperm quality, but in particular it alters the physical and molecular structure of germ cells in the testes and ultimately affects the maturity and function of sperm cells. Inhibition of microRNA in the male pronucleus of fertilized zygotes produces offspring of phenotypes of variable severity depending on miRNAs ratios. Hence, these RNAs have a role in the oocyte development during fertilization and in embryo development, fetal survival, and offspring phenotype. It has been reported that the miRNA profile is altered in spermatozoa of obese males, however, the impact of these changes in fertilization and embryo health remains as yet not known. © 2014 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

  8. Future seasonal climate change scenarios for Taiwan using a climate scenario generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tfwala, Samkele; Chen, Su-Chin

    2017-04-01

    Decision makers, resource managers and engineers demand accurate information regarding future changes in climate and variability to better forecast potential impacts. To acquire information about climate change, dedicated experiments using global and regional climate models are needed. These demand considerable computing capacity and expertise. This study explores the use of simple climate change scenario generators in developing future changes of climate change at national level. Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGGIC) combined with a scenario generator (SCENGEN) is applied. MAGGIC/SCENGEN use results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 - CMIP3 and IPCC fourth assessment report, working group 1 - AR4). Eighteen general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated based on global and regional performance. From these, 5 models were selected to predict future changes for Taiwan. The models predict temperature increase in all seasons with a high magnitude (3.16 °C) in June-July-August (JJA) season. Precipitation changes vary widely; generally, there is a decline in December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON). A significant decline, -8.8 % and -16 %, is observed in MAM by 2020 and 2100, respectively. The study reveals that simple climate change scenarios can be used to predict future changes.

  9. Using scenario planning in public health: anticipating alternative futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neiner, Jennifer A; Howze, Elizabeth H; Greaney, Mary L

    2004-01-01

    Scenario planning is a method for anticipating possible alternative futures. Used widely in business applications, it allows planners to anticipate problems, reevaluate assumptions, and reflect on consequences of those alternative futures. In this article, scenario planning is applied to public health, specifically to illustrate the four steps in scenario planning for public health using a health department's desire to address chronic disease prevention and control. An unhealthy diet and physical inactivity are considered to be key risk factors. The scenarios are presented in table format and are for illustration purposes only. Many other plausible scenarios could be constructed. Scenario planning allows stake-holders to define a desired, shared vision of the future, but more important, they can better prepare public health professionals to be successful in a constantly changing environment.

  10. Climate change scenario data for the national parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, D.

    2003-01-01

    This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs

  11. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  12. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  13. Design storytelling with future scenario development; envisioning "the museum"

    OpenAIRE

    Eggink, Wouter; Albert de la Bruheze, Adri A.

    2015-01-01

    There are different ways to tell stories with design. This paper shows possibilities of telling stories by envisioning the future. Overall, design has the very ability to envision, visualize and express things that do not exist yet. We introduce the Future Scenario Development Design methodology as a process for research through design. This methodology consists of a six step scenario development approach, combined with a general conceptual design phase. The scenario of a (plausible and think...

  14. Power system transformation toward renewables: Investment scenarios for Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Egerer, Jonas; Schill, Wolf-Peter

    2014-01-01

    We analyze distinctive investment scenarios for the integration of fluctuating renewables in the German power system. Using a combined model for dispatch, transmission, and investment, three different investment options are considered, including gas-fired power plants, pumped hydro storage, and transmission lines. We find that geographically optimized power plant investments dominate in the reference scenarios for 2024 and 2034. In scenarios with decreasedrenewable curtailment, storage and tr...

  15. Designing learning scenarios for serious games with ARGILE

    OpenAIRE

    Nour El Mawas

    2014-01-01

    The design of Serious Games for training in complex areas of expertise presents many difficulties related to trainers’ participation in the design phase, the formalization of scenarios describing highly complex situations, the limited number of scenarios in Serious Games due to their high costs, and the low re-use level of real-life scenarios. This study proposes functional and technical infrastructure with ARGILE (Architecture for Representations, Games, Interactions, and Learning among Expe...

  16. Toward predictive scenarios of planetary migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruteau, Clement

    2008-01-01

    The recent detection of extra-solar planets has provided an exciting opportunity to test our theories of planet formation and evolution. An impressive result is the significant proportion of giant planets located much closer to their star than Mercury is from our own Sun. These planets should have formed further out in the protoplanetary disc, thus one needs to explain how they could move closer to their host star. Remarkably enough, such an explanation was proposed well before the discovery of the first exo-planet. It considered the interaction between a planet and the protoplanetary disc, which leads to a decrease of the planet's semi-major axis. This is known as planetary migration. Many studies have shown that the migration timescale of low-mass planets is much shorter than the lifetime of the disc. All planets should therefore have migrated to the vicinity of their host star. This is at least in contradiction with the locations of the planets in our Solar System. In order to elaborate predictive scenarios of planet formation and evolution, it is of primary interest to refine our understanding of disc-planet interactions. The inclusion of the disc self-gravity is an illustration of this. With analytical and numerical arguments, I show that discarding the self-gravity leads to a significant overestimate of the differential Lindblad torque for migrating low-mass planets. Another aspect explored in this thesis is the impact of the gas thermodynamics on migration. I show that the thermodynamic evolution of the disc induces an additional contribution to the corotation torque, which may dramatically slow down or even reverse the migration of low-mass planets. (author) [fr

  17. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  18. The Brazilian external individual monitoring scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mauricio, Claudia L.P.; Silva, Claudio R. da; Cunha, Paulo G. da

    2015-01-01

    In order to improve radiation protection it is necessary to have knowledge of the occupational radiation dose levels in all radiation facilities. This information comes from individual monitoring services, which are responsible for measuring and providing information about workers' radiation exposure. In 1981, the Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN) of Brazil starts to develop a comprehensive system for regulation and storage of occupational radiation dose. This paper starts with an overview of the evolution of the Brazilian authorization and data storage system for external individual monitoring. It starts with a rule for authorization of all Brazilian photon individual monitoring services and the obligation for them to send the measured dose to CNEN. Up to now there is no regulation for neutron individual monitoring. The aim of this paper is to present the current scenario of the Brazilian external monitoring system, reinforcing its importance and remaining problems. The number of monitored workers greatly increases every year, having surpassed 150,000 people monitored. The stored data show that the mean annual occupational external dose is decreasing from 2.4 mSv in 1987 to about 0.6 mSv, in 2012, but there is still some not realistic very high dose measured (higher than 100 mSv), without investigation. About 80% of the annual dose values are lower than the monthly register level. As expected, the higher real photon doses are found in Nuclear Medicine, Industrial Radiology and Interventional Radiology. All recorded annual neutron dose values are lower than 20 mSv. (author)

  19. Climate change scenarios and Technology Transfer Protocols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal

    2011-01-01

    We apply a specific version of MERGE-ETL, an integrated assessment model, to study global climate policies supported by Technology Transfer Protocols (TTPs). We model a specific formulation of such a TTP where donor countries finance via carbon tax revenues, the diffusion of carbon-free technologies in developing countries (DCs) and quantify its benefits. Industrialized countries profit from increased technology exports, global diffusion of advanced technology (leading to additional technology learning and cost reductions) and reduced climate damages through the likelihood of greater global participation in a new international agreement. DCs experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and expected secondary benefits of carbon abatement (such as reduced local and regional air pollution). The analysis identifies potential candidate technologies that could be supported under a TTP, and the impact of a TTP on economic development (including the flow of transfer subsidies) and global emissions. Although a TTP may encourage additional participation, such a proposal is only likely to be successful if an increased willingness to pay to avoid climate damages is accepted, first by the present and future generations of the industrialized world and later on, when sufficient economic growth is accumulated, by today's developing countries. - Research Highlights: → Climate policy scenarios are assessed with differentiated commitments in carbon emission control supported by Technology Transfer Protocols. → Donor countries finance, via carbon-tax revenues, the exports of carbon-free technologies in developing countries helping to get a new international agreement. → Developing countries experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and secondary benefits. → Under Technology Protocols alone and

  20. Simulating ITER steady-state operation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S.H.; Casper, T.A.; Campbell, D.J.; Snipes, J.A.; Bulmer, R.; LoDestro, L.L.; Meyer, W.H.; Pearlstein, L.D.

    2015-01-01

    Full text of publication follows. ITER steady-state operation aims at demonstrating fully non-inductive plasma operation at a moderate fusion power multiplication factor (Q) of about 5, for long burn durations of up to 3000 s. In this work, this operational capability is studied using an advanced free-boundary transport simulation code, CORSICA [1-3], including relevant physics and engineering constraints. The tokamak discharge modelling capability of the CORSICA code has been improved by integrating realistic source modules for heating and current drive and a parameterized EPED1 pedestal model. The electro-magnetic ITER machine description is computed using the recent design parameters and the latest source configurations are taken into account. This work has been performed to study the feasibility of the ITER steady-state operation. Although the evolution of internal transport barriers (ITBs) are not yet included in this study, a higher energy confinement over the H-mode confinement (H98>1) is assumed by maintaining a reversed safety factor (q) profile during the flat-top phase. This paper presents several ITER steady-state operation scenarios, including a reference 9 MA case, and also suggests a potential approach for achieving fully non-inductive ITER steady-state operation with Q>5. References: [1] Crotinger, J.A. et al, 1997 LLNL Report UCRL-ID-126284; NTIS PB2005-102154; [2] Casper, T.A. et al, 2010 23. Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (Daejeon, Korea) ITR/P1-19 accepted for publication in Nuclear Fusion; [3] Kim, S.H. et al, 2012 24. Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, USA) ITR/P1-13. (authors)

  1. Occult hepatitis B infection: an evolutionary scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukashov Vladimir V

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Occult or latent hepatitis B virus (HBV infection is defined as infection with detectable HBV DNA and undetectable surface antigen (HBsAg in patients' blood. The cause of an overt HBV infection becoming an occult one is unknown. To gain insight into the mechanism of the development of occult infection, we compared the full-length HBV genome from a blood donor carrying an occult infection (d4 with global genotype D genomes. Results The phylogenetic analysis of polymerase, core and X protein sequences did not distinguish d4 from other genotype D strains. Yet, d4 surface protein formed the evolutionary outgroup relative to all other genotype D strains. Its evolutionary branch was the only one where accumulation of substitutions suggests positive selection (dN/dS = 1.3787. Many of these substitutiions accumulated specifically in regions encoding the core/surface protein interface, as revealed in a 3D-modeled protein complex. We identified a novel RNA splicing event (deleting nucleotides 2986-202 that abolishes surface protein gene expression without affecting polymerase, core and X-protein related functions. Genotype D strains differ in their ability to perform this 2986-202 splicing. Strains prone to 2986-202 splicing constitute a separate clade in a phylogenetic tree of genotype D HBVs. A single substitution (G173T that is associated with clade membership alters the local RNA secondary structure and is proposed to affect splicing efficiency at the 202 acceptor site. Conclusion We propose an evolutionary scenario for occult HBV infection, in which 2986-202 splicing generates intracellular virus particles devoid of surface protein, which subsequently accumulates mutations due to relaxation of coding constraints. Such viruses are deficient of autonomous propagation and cannot leave the host cell until it is lysed.

  2. The IIASA'83 scenario of energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.

    1984-01-01

    The prospects for natural gas as a major source of energy supply are good. Spurred by the energy crises of the 'seventies, recent exploration for gas resources as well as technological advances in deep drilling have enhanced the picture of gas as a plentiful fossil resource. Technological improvements in transporting gas over large distances, as piped gas and as a liquid, suggest the strong possibility of gas as an important commodity in energy trade. In addition, gas is a high quality and relatively clean fuel, which is especially attractive in today's world of environmental concern for pollution emissions from energy combustion. Such developments led to the design of the IIASA'83 Scenario of Energy Development, which explored the techno-economic feasibility of the expanded use of gas in energy systems. The work drew on the findings of the IIASA global energy analysis, documented in 'Energy in a Finite World'. All countries of the world were covered in the quantitative analysis, grouped regionally by similarity in energy resources and economic structure and not necessarily on the basis of geographic proximity. The period studied was necessarily the next half century, from 1980 to 2030, in view of the inertia in technological and economic systems and this constraint on the development of energy infrastructures. Global primary energy consumption increases some twofold from 10 TW.a/a to 21.9 TW.a/a over the next 50 years, while economic output globally grows some threefold. The breakdown of global primary energy consumption indicates an absolute increase in the use of all primary energy sources over the study period, with fossil fuels continuing to supply the lion's share of primary energy. The buildup of non-fossil energy sources to global supply levels by 2030 is likely to be constrained by the high capital investments required at a period of modest economic growth and by the sociopolitical controversy surrounding the use of some of these technologies. (author)

  3. Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

    2018-04-01

    Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

  4. Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand......, even if the scenario trees generated by scenario reduction are arbitrage-free, the solutions are biased and highly variable. These results hold for correlated and uncorrelated asset returns, as well as for normal and non-normal returns. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  5. Relative evaluation on decommissioning accident scenarios of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Kwan-Seong; Choi, Byung-Seon; Moon, Jei-Kwon; Hyun, Dong-Jun; Kim, Geun-Ho; Kim, Tae-Hyoung; Jo, Kyung-Hwa; Seo, Jae-Seok; Jeong, Seong-Young; Lee, Jung-Jun

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► This paper suggests relative importance on accident scenarios during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. ► The importance of scenarios can be performed by using AHP and Sugeno fuzzy method. ► The AHP and Sugeno fuzzy method guarantee reliability of the importance evaluation. -- Abstract: This paper suggests the evaluation method of relative importance on accident scenarios during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The evaluation method consists of AHP method and Sugeno fuzzy integral method. This method will guarantee the reliability of relative importance evaluation for decommissioning accident scenarios.

  6. VEMAP 2: U.S. Annual Climate Change Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Data sets of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate experiments with transient...

  7. VEMAP 2: U.S. Annual Climate Change Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: Data sets of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate experiments with...

  8. Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert; Clarke, Leon; Maciejewski, Ross

    2017-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

  9. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account.

  10. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Md Akram Hussain

    2013-01-01

    other major cancer programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR′B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement.

  11. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Syed Md Akram

    2013-10-01

    programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR'B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement.

  12. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine [ORNL; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F [ORNL; Stephen, Jamie [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Stumborg, Mark [AAFC; Fenton, James [Fenton & Associates; Mani, Sudhagar [University of Georgia

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) round bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.

  13. Earthquake Loss Scenarios in the Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, M.; Gupta, S.; Rosset, P.; Chamlagain, D.

    2017-12-01

    are subject to errors due to the many unknowns. Nevertheless, the order of magnitude of the disasters we estimate is correct as has been shown by the fact that 2 out of 7 Himalayan disaster scenarios published in March 2005 came true within factors of about 2.5 (the consequences of the 2005 Kashmir and the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes.)

  14. Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

  15. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

    2008-01-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  16. SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King-Clayton, L.M.; Chapman, N.A.; Kautsky, F.; Svensson, N.O.; Ledoux, E.

    1995-12-01

    The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs

  17. SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King-Clayton, L.M.; Chapman, N.A. [QuantiSci Ltd, Melton Mowbray (United Kingdom); Kautsky, F. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Svensson, N.O. [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Geology; Marsily, G. de [Univ. VI Paris (France); Ledoux, E. [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 77 - Fontainebleau (France)

    1995-12-01

    The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs.

  18. Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

  19. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  20. Decision Driven Scenario Planning for Process-Level Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chemarck, Thomas J.; Payne, Tiffani D.

    2005-01-01

    This article builds on previous work that classified types of scenario planning as effective or relevant for particular situations, by adding consideration for levels within the organization. In addition, the argument is built for using a particular form of scenarios to anticipate or explore process level problems and outcomes. The problem of…

  1. An Approach to Scenario Analysis, Generation and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Van Zuylen, H.J.

    2014-01-01

    This article presents an operation-oriented approach for traffic management scenario generation, analysis and evaluation. We start taking a few most applied scenarios from a traffic control centre, analysing each component and structure of the whole, and evaluating the impact of each component and

  2. Risk Assessment Methodology for CO2 Storage: The Scenario Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wildenborg, A.F.B.; Leijnse, A.L.; Kreft, E.; Nepveu, M.N.; Obdam, A.N.M.; Orlic, B.; Wipfler, E.L.; Grift, B. van der; Kesteren, W. van; Gaus, I.; Czernichowski-Lauriol, I.; Torfs, P.; Wójcik, R.

    2005-01-01

    This chapter introduces a "scenario approach," which is used as a methodology for the long-term safety assessment of underground CO2 storage and to demonstrate its applicability in an example of safety assessment. This developed methodology consists of three main parts-scenario analysis, model

  3. Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Giovinazzo Spers

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006 was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM (WRIGHT, 1991 and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future", a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth" and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture". Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

  4. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...

  5. Making scenarios for nature policy in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dammers, E.; Hinsberg, van A.; Vader, J.; Wiersinga, W.A.

    2012-01-01

    The subsequent building blocks of the scenario study enable policymakers to gradually gain insight into alternative desirable future states of nature and alternative policy-strategies to realize them. This is further stimulated by the character of the scenarios, which contain not only qualitative

  6. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  7. Short views and hints on information, knowledge and scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses information and knowledge in relation to scenario planning (van der Heijden) and considers the type of information that is relied on/included as well as the nature of knowledge produced by the scenario planning sequence. In addition, the chief tools and processes drawn upon...

  8. Electric Vehicles Scenarios and a Roadmap for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal

    This report is an attempt to look at the present EV landscape, recent developments in EV markets and the emergent EV technology research. The report analyses future scenarios of passenger transport in India with a specific focus on the role of EVs. The scenarios span from 2010 to 2035 and are ana...

  9. Recommendations of activity restriction in high-risk pregnancy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendix, Jane; Hegaard, Hanne Kristine; Bergholt, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    activity restriction more often than obstetricians in five of the nine scenarios, in women with preterm premature rupture of membranes, preterm labour, cervical ripening, total placenta praevia, and intrauterine growth restriction, whereas no differences were found in the remaining scenarios. Compared...

  10. Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

    1998-01-01

    The paper presents a new scenario-based appraisal methodology (SEAM), which has been developed for transport infrastructure planning. SEAM aims at dealing with uncertainty in the planning environment in a more systematic way than is usually the case when applying scenario analysis. Specifically, ...

  11. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  12. USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jakimi

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

  13. Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

    2017-01-01

    The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

  14. Wireless Sensor Networks: Performance Analysis in Indoor Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ferrari

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the performance of realistic wireless sensor networks in indoor scenarios. Most of the considered networks are formed by nodes using the Zigbee communication protocol. For comparison, we also analyze networks based on the proprietary standard Z-Wave. Two main groups of network scenarios are proposed: (i scenarios with direct transmissions between the remote nodes and the network coordinator, and (ii scenarios with routers, which relay the packets between the remote nodes and the coordinator. The sensor networks of interest are evaluated considering different performance metrics. In particular, we show how the received signal strength indication (RSSI behaves in the considered scenarios. Then, the network behavior is characterized in terms of end-to-end delay and throughput. In order to confirm the experiments, analytical and simulation results are also derived.

  15. Energy transition: from national scenarios to European policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathieu, Mathilde

    2013-01-01

    This thesis aims at seeing how an analysis of national scenarios of energy transition may contribute to the elaboration of European energy and climate policies. The author first identifies the characteristics of energy scenarios, and the relationship between a scenario considered as an object on the one hand, and a vision for the long term on the other hand. She proposes an analysis framework which enables a comparative analysis of scenarios in order to identify stakes and challenges for the future European policy. In the second part, the author presents three examples (Germany, United Kingdom and France) and discusses their political context and adopted scenarios. After an overview of existing European energy and climate policies, the results of the analysis are given for two specific sectors: transports and electricity

  16. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-01-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology

  17. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  18. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-04-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology.

  19. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  20. Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besseghir, K.

    2013-06-01

    The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

  1. Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anniken Enger

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

  2. The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part II: Scenarios for a 60% CO2 reduction in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, Kevin L.; Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Shackley, Simon; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ekins, Paul

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios, the first to take account of CO 2 emissions from the whole of the UK's energy system, including emissions from international shipping and aviation. It builds on Part I, which outlined the backcasting methodology developed to generate the scenarios. The five scenarios produced through this process articulate alternative vision of a substantially decarbonised society in 2050, ranging from a halving of energy consumption from current levels to a near doubling. This work demonstrates that a 60% reduction in the UK's CO 2 emissions is achievable, even when all CO 2 sources are taken into account. The impacts and consequences of the scenarios were assessed by means of a multi-criteria framework which cautions us that the high energy demand scenarios will have a large impact on broader sustainability criteria

  3. Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

    2017-04-01

    The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

  4. Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, Nick; Strachan, Neil

    2010-01-01

    Scenarios have a long history in business, politics and military planning, as a tool for strategic planning to inform protective, proactive or consensus-based decision making in the face of uncertain futures. Recent years have seen a growth in scenarios for assessing the implications of low carbon futures, but relatively little work has linked these energy scenarios to the broader literature on scenario development. This paper undertakes a methodological review of a selection of UK and international low carbon scenario studies, using a typology of 'trend based', 'technical feasibility' and 'modelling' studies. Dominant methodologies in such studies have been the 2x2 axis and the 'back-casting' approach. Strengths of the studies reviewed include technological detail, and identification of key economic and social constraints. Weaknesses include the over-reliance on constructs such as exogenous emissions constraints, and high level trends, which diminish the ability to understand how the various future scenarios could be brought about or avoided. This is compounded by the lack of depiction of specific system actors; the tendency to abstract policy from the scenarios; and the resulting failure to consider policy, technology and behaviour in an iterative, 'co-evolving' fashion.

  5. Towards the new CH2018 climate scenarios for Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Schär, Christoph; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Knutti, Reto; Liniger, Mark; Strassmann, Kuno

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing demand for regional assessments of future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems to inform and facilitate appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are consistent and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). Since then, new climate model simulations have become available and the scientific understanding has improved. It is hence desirable to update these national scenarios. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS), a network consisting of several federal offices and academic partners. The CH2018 scenarios will build primarily upon the latest Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations assuming different pathways of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Compared to CH2011, more emphasis will be put on changes in extremes and in putting the projected changes in the context of observed variability. Results of a recently conducted survey on end-user needs in Switzerland will guide the development process toward the CH2018 scenarios. It ensures that the scenarios are presented and communicated in a user-oriented format and find a wide applicability across different sectors in Switzerland. In the presentation we will show the full methodological setup to generate the CH2018 scenarios and how consistency across the methods and products is maximized. First results on mean changes and selected indices will be presented. In terms of dissemination, the results of the user survey show the necessity to address all different user types of climate scenarios, especially the non-experts. Compared to CH2011, this implies a stronger focus on consulting, condensing complex information and providing tutorials. In the presentation, we will outline our plans on dissemination in order to adequately

  6. Designing learning scenarios for serious games with ARGILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nour El Mawas

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The design of Serious Games for training in complex areas of expertise presents many difficulties related to trainers’ participation in the design phase, the formalization of scenarios describing highly complex situations, the limited number of scenarios in Serious Games due to their high costs, and the low re-use level of real-life scenarios. This study proposes functional and technical infrastructure with ARGILE (Architecture for Representations, Games, Interactions, and Learning among Experts for design of Serious Games. We illustrate our solution applied to a project in the sustainable development field.

  7. A review of global and regional sulfur emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A. [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Laxenburg (Austria)

    1998-12-31

    The paper reviews base year emission inventories, driving forces, and long-term scenarios of sulfur emissions as background material for developing a new set of IPCC emissions scenarios. The paper concludes that future sulfur emission trends will be spatially heterogeneous (decline in OECD countries, rapid increase particularly in Asia) and therefore cannot be modeled at a global scale only. In view of ecosystems and food production impacts future sulfur emissions will need to be increasingly controlled also outside OECD countries. As a result, future sulfur emissions are likely to remain significantly below the values projected in the previous IPCC IS92 high emissions scenarios. 47 refs.

  8. A critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2011-01-01

    The author proposes a rather radical critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario which is mainly based on the development of the use of solid and liquid biomass produced by forests and farms, and of some marginal resources like wood and urban wastes. He shows that wood resources in France are not sufficient as part of the wood is used for construction. A further exploitation of wood would lead to a dramatic increase of costs. He shows that the scenario overestimates the available wood in France, and moreover, that the promoters of the scenario overstep the physical, biological, social and economic limits of the real world of agriculture

  9. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  10. Economic Analysis of Different Electric Vehicle Charging Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Li; Haiming, Zhou; Xiufan, Ma; Hao, Wang

    2017-05-01

    Influence of electric vehicles (EV) to grid cannot be ignored. Research on the economy analysis of different charging scenarios is helpful to guide the user to charge or discharge orderly. EV charging models are built such as disordered charging, valley charging, intelligent charging, and V2G (Vehicle to Grid), by which changes of charging load in different scenarios can be seen to analyze the influence to initial load curve, and comparison can be done about user’s average cost. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the electric vehicle charging behavior, cost in different charging scenarios are compared, social cost is introduced in V2G scene, and the relationship between user’s average cost and social cost is analyzed. By test, it is proved that user’s cost is the lowest in V2G scenario, and the larger the scale of vehicles is, the more the social cost can save.

  11. Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lambin, Eric; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise; Mertz, Ole

    2014-01-01

    In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the...... climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.......In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed...

  12. VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — VEMAP Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate...

  13. VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: VEMAP Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient...

  14. Concepts of Scenario Methods in Improvement of an Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edyta Bielinska-Dusza

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the study, principal objectives, scope of the investigation, methods employed results and principal conclusion. Uncertainty makes both theoreticians and practicioners face new tasks to fulfil. Enterprises, in order to win the competitive struggle must constantly improve their processes and structures. On the other hand, thinking in the categories of the future becomes really difficult nowadays. This creates particularly convenient conditions to apply scenario methods. In connection with the above, the purpose of this study is to characterize the essence of scenario methods employed in enterprise development. The article addresses the issue of factors conditioning proper selection of methods in the enterprise development process, the principles of scenario planning and the opportunities to apply other techniques and methods in scenario planning.

  15. Scenarios for the South African Water Sector in 2025

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-03-20

    scenarios' of what the enemy might do and preparing alternative strategies. It was thus aimed at achieving a desired outcome in an uncertain future (Mietzner and Reger,. 2004). At the end of the 1940s, researchers at the RAND.

  16. World Energy Scenarios to 2050: the Europe Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weeda, E.

    2006-01-01

    The topic of this paper is an overview of the Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 study objectives, with emphasis on The Report for the Europe Region. The study is focused on achievement of the 3A's global energy goal (Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability) by using various policy scenarios. The heart of the study will therefore be Policy Scenarios postulated within the context of two dimensions of government policy uncertainty. One with the dimension indicating whether the world is heading towards increased globalism and co-operation between governments and/or business and industry, or more towards bilateralism and nationalism outside global governance institutions. As outcomes, there is particularly described each of the four predicted scenarios: L'Europe des Patries, Fortress Europe, Confident Europe and Trailer Europe considering five main common indicators: political context, energy security, market forces/competition, environment/climate change, and energy mix/energy technology.(author)

  17. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    in time to do something different (Schwartz, 1991). Scenarios are known to offer greater advantages over other forecasting methods when uncertainty is high and historical relationships shaky (Fahey & Randall, 1998). Scenario analysis therefore seems better in tune with the current business environment......The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired....... Also researchers are forced to be in the forefront when choosing the research area in which they engage in. In trying to aid such assessments, scenario techniques can be useful (von Reibnitz, 1988). A scenario can be thought of as a vehicle for envisioning where the world could go so that we can learn...

  18. Hydrological scenarios of future seasonal runoff distribution in Central Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hlavcova, K; Szolgay, J; Kohnova, S; Balint, G

    2008-01-01

    The hydrological scenarios of future seasonal distributions of runoff in the upper Hron River basin, which was chosen as a representative mountainous region in Central Slovakia, were evaluated. Changes in the future climate were expressed by three different climate change scenarios developed within the framework of the Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Project (CECILIA). The climate change scenarios were constructed using the pattern scaling method from the outputs of transient simulations made by 3 GCMs - ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM2 and NCAR DOE-PCM. A conceptual hydrological balance model calibrated with data from the period 1971-2000 was used for modelling changes in runoff with monthly time steps. The runoff change scenarios for the selected basin in the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 show changes in the seasonal runoff distribution.

  19. The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok

    2014-01-01

    . Transformation from a conventional fossil-fueled energy system to a 100% renewable energy system is not an easy task, however, it is a necessary goal to be attained. Academic and governmental bodies in Denmark have released several projects on future scenarios free from fossil fuel by year 2050. Three existing...... energy scenarios commonly conclude that a 100% renewable energy system in 2050 is feasible both technologically and economically. The three scenarios assume similar technology options, but different rates of usage. For example, the IDA 2050 scenario establishes an energy system dependent on more biomass...... there might be limits on the environmental capacity and opposition against biomass usage for societal and political reasons in the future. For clarifying better usage of biomass in a 100% renewable energy system, biomass usage for either heat production or electricity generation is compared in this thesis...

  20. Effect of adaptive learning style scenarios on learning achievements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bozhilov, Danail; Stefanov, Krassen; Stoyanov, Slavi

    2009-01-01

    Bozhilov, D., Stefanov, K., & Stoyanov, S. (2009). Effect of adaptive learning style scenarios on learning achievements [Special issue]. International Journal of Continuing Engineering Education and Lifelong Learning (IJCEELL), 19(4/5/6), 381-398.

  1. Some remarks on a scenario of supersymmetry in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jannussis, A.; Tsohantzis, I; Vavougios, D.

    1990-01-01

    Some remarks are given on a recent paper of Lahiri, Kumar Roy and Bagchi who have constructed a scenario of supersymmetry in quantum mechanics by imposing a structure on the raising and lowering operators

  2. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in

  3. Rapid Development of Scenario-Based Simulations and Tutoring Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mohammed, John L; Sorensen, Barbara; Ong, James C; Li, Jian

    2005-01-01

    .... Scenario-based training, in which trainees practice handling specific situations using faithful simulations of the equipment they will use on the job has proven to be an extremely effective method...

  4. Scenario visualisation for participatory landscape planning - a study from Denmark

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tress, B.; Tress, G.

    2003-01-01

    Increasingly, different functions must be integrated simultaneously in the Danish countryside, demanding a common effort of planners, decision-makers, researchers, and stakeholders. The study proposes a transdisciplinary method that combines scenario technique, photorealistic visualisation, and

  5. Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Marcus Christian; Henriksen, Lars Frederik Brandt; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2016-01-01

    -based reserve, qualitatively, to a Value-at-Risk-based calculation of solvency capital requirements. This brings out perspectives for our results in relation to qualifying the standard formula of Solvency II or using a scenario-based approach in internal models. Our results are powerful for various applications...... of a policyholder as active and disabled, respectively, are low at the same time, and (c) mortality intensities of the policyholders in a portfolio are low at the same time. The set from which the worst-case scenario is taken reflects the dependence structure and allows us to relate the worst-case scenario...... and the techniques are non-standard in control theory, exactly because our worst-case scenario is deterministic and not adapted to the stochastic development of the portfolio. The formalistic results are exemplified in a series of numerical studies....

  6. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  7. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  8. Scenarios for a Nordic Power System without Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graabak, Ingeborg; Nilsson, Måns; Wu, Qiuwei

    2014-01-01

    good. The main target group of the scenario results is the Transmission System Operators (TSOs), but the results will also be relevant for the Nordic politicians and investment decision makers in the power industry. The scenarios will among other be used for the following purposes: - Identify...... profitable investments in transmission grids with particular focus on the interconnections between the Nordic region and Continental Europe - Technical simulations of the power system with focus on balancing of large shares of non-dispatchable renewable resources in a future system. - Assess impacts...... on the power system with large-scale deployment of electric vehicles. - Discuss necessary governance transformation related to the transmission grid developmentThe paper presents a scenario methodology where each scenario consists of a possible future and a strategy for how the decision maker (TSOs) can act...

  9. Modern Policyholder Preferences and Scenario-Based Projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel

    This PhD thesis covers aspects of policyholder preferences and life insurance projections based on economic scenarios. Both topics are relevant to policyholders as well as to the life insurance and pension industry—and equally important, the topics give rise to a variety of interesting mathematical...... as unconventional as explicit preferences for not trading, and if not careful, the former entails time-inconsistency. From a policyholder and advisory perspective, scenario-based projections allow for tailor-made bonus, benefit, and retirement savings prognoses that illustrate financial riskiness...... to the policyholder. From an industry and accounting perspective, scenario-based projections allow for valuation of life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments. In this thesis, we focus on economic scenarios because they ensure a low mathematical complexity even...

  10. Optimal vaccination scenarios against vector-borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Enøe, Claes; Bødker, Rene

    Using a process oriented semi-agent based model we simulated the spread of Bluetongue virus in Denmark. We evaluated the efficiency and minimum vaccination cover for eight different preventive vaccination strategies in Denmark. The simulation model replicates both passive and active flight...... of Culicoides between hosts on pasture and stables in Denmark. Seasonal abundance of midges and temperature dependence on biological processes were included in the model. The eight vaccination scenarios comprised of: All holdings vaccinated to a given percentage, random holdings selected for vaccination, two...... scenarios based on the size of holdings, mosaic vaccination of nearest neighbor farms, vaccination of hosts on pasture, regional vaccination, and trench vaccination from the border to Germany. These eight scenarios were investigated under normal grazing conditions and under a forced housing scenario...

  11. Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fidje, Audun

    2008-07-01

    This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

  12. KNMI Climate Change Scenarios 2006 for the Netherlands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van den Hurk, B.; Klein Tank, A.; Lenderink, G.; Van Ulden, A.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Katsman, C.; Van den Brink, H.; Keller, F.; Bessembinder, J.; Burgers, G.; Komen, G.; Hazeleger, W.; Drijfhout, S.

    2006-05-15

    Climate change scenarios for the Netherlands for temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind for 2050, and for sea level rise for 2050 and 2100 have been constructed using a range of data sources and techniques. The scenario variables have been defined after consultation with a number of potential scenario users. General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations which have become available during the preparation for the upcoming Fourth Assessment report (AR4) of IPCC have been used to derive scenarios of sea level change in the eastern North Atlantic basin and wind speed in the North Sea area. The GCM simulations also were used to span a range of changes in seasonal mean temperature and precipitation over the Netherlands. It was found that most of this range could be related to changes in projected global mean temperature and changes in the strength of seasonal mean western component of the large scale atmospheric flow in the area around the Netherlands. Therefore, temperature and circulation were used to discriminate four different scenarios for temperature, precipitation and potential evaporation, by choosing two different values of global temperature change and two different assumptions about the circulation response. The construction of the extreme precipitation and temperature values and the potential evaporation values was carried out using an ensemble of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations and statistical downscaling on observed time series. Additional scaling and weighting rules were designed to generate RCM sub-ensembles matching the seasonal mean precipitation range suggested by the GCMs. The circulation steering parameter has a great impact on the number of precipitation days, the seasonal mean precipitation, and the intensity of extreme precipitation exceeded once every 10 years. Also potential evaporation is affected greatly by the assumed circulation change. Changes of daily mean wind speed exceeded once per year are rather small

  13. Overview description of the base scenario derived from FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment - timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD), provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs which form part of the natural evolution of the system and those which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics

  14. Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)

  15. PROCESS INNOVATION: HOLISTIC SCENARIOS TO REDUCE TOTAL LEAD TIME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alin POSTEUCĂ

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The globalization of markets requires continuous development of business holistic scenarios to ensure acceptable flexibility to satisfy customers. Continuous improvement of supply chain supposes continuous improvement of materials and products lead time and flow, material stocks and finished products stocks and increasing the number of suppliers close by as possible. The contribution of our study is to present holistic scenarios of total lead time improvement and innovation by implementing supply chain policy.

  16. Search for compressed SUSY scenarios with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Maurer, Julien; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Scenarios where multiple SUSY states are nearly degenerate in mass produce soft decay products, and they represent an experimental challenge for ATLAS. This contribution presented recent results of analyses explicitly targeting such ``compressed'' scenarios with a variety of experimental techniques. All results made use of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC.

  17. Alternative World Scenarios for a New Order of Nations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    and Air and Space Defense Forces ( ASDF ). SCENARIO BRAVO: U.S. World Peacekeeper. Scenario BRAVO describes a competitive world of economic trade markets...equipment and weapons. The warfighting GDF, Land Defense Forces (LDF), Sea Defense Forces (SDF), and Air and Space Defense Forces ( ASDF ), overall, are...since they are outmoded and of mid 20th century vintage. The remainder are high-tech and staffed by well-trained career SDF personnel. The ASDF (Air

  18. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    OpenAIRE

    Vaughan, Naomi E; Gough, Clair

    2016-01-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment ofBECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a sca...

  20. Mount St. Helens Future Expected Deposition Scenario (FEDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-14

    Mount Saint Helens Future Expected Deposition Scenario (FEDS) 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT...Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 COMPLETION OF AGENCY TECHNICAL REVIEW The Agency Technical Review (A TR) has been completed for the Mount Saint Helens ... Mount St. Helens Future Expected Deposition Scenario (FEDS) Channels within the Cowlitz-Toutle Watershed April 14

  1. Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

    2010-03-01

    Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

  2. Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghanadan, Rebecca; Koomey, J.G.

    2005-01-01

    This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios

  3. Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

  4. Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krol, M.S.; Woerd, H.J. van der

    1994-01-01

    The future radiative forcing by non-CO 2 greenhouse gases depends strongly on the behavior of the OH radical, which represents the primary sink for CH 4 , CO and H(C)FCs in the atmosphere. The authors present a simple model to describe the changes in the concentration of the main greenhouse gases. The focus is on the description of the atmospheric chemistry of OH and the important tropospheric oxidant and greenhouse gas O 3 . Changes in the equilibrium concentrations of these oxidants will change the trends in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially CH 4 . The model is applied to the 1992 IPCC emissions scenarios, as well as to an IMAGE 2.0 scenario, based on 'Conventional Wisdom' assumptions. The following major results are found: for the central estimate of emissions assuming no additional policies (IS92a), the concentration of CH 4 keeps rising at rates similar to those observed over the last decades; results for the other IS92 scenarios range from stabilization early in the next century (IS92d) to an ever increasing rate of accumulation of CH 4 in the atmosphere (IS92f), even though these scenarios assume no policy interventions. The IMAGE 2.0 Conventional Wisdom scenario is similar to IS92a before the year 2025; afterwards the expansion of agricultural area significantly decreases the emissions of hydrocarbons and NO x from savanna burning, not represented in the IS92 scenarios. This leads to stable levels of atmospheric CH 4 after 2025

  5. Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 . (author)

  6. The Reference Scenarios for the Swiss Emergency Planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanspeter Isaak; Navert, Stephan B.; Ralph Schulz [Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate CH-5232 Villigen-HSK (Switzerland)

    2006-07-01

    For the purpose of emergency planning and preparedness, realistic reference scenarios and corresponding accident source terms have been defined on the basis of common plant features. Three types of representative reference scenarios encompass the accident sequences expected to be the most probable. Accident source terms are assumed to be identical for all Swiss nuclear power plants, although the plants differ in reactor type and power. Plant-specific probabilistic safety analyses were used to justify the reference scenarios and the postulated accident source terms. From the full spectrum of release categories available, those categories were selected which would be covered by the releases and time frames assumed in the reference scenarios. For each nuclear power plant, the cumulative frequency of accident sequences not covered by the reference scenarios was determined. It was found that the cumulative frequency for such accident sequences does not exceed about 1 x 10{sup -6} per year. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate concludes that the postulated accident source terms for the reference scenarios are consistent with the current international approach in emergency planning, where one should concentrate on the most probable accident sequences. (N.C.)

  7. Energy perspectives 2035 - Volume 2, scenarios I to IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, A.

    2007-01-01

    This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the four scenarios concerning future developments in Swiss energy supply policy. The four complex scenarios include variants entitled 'business as usual', 'increased co-operation', 'new priorities' and 'on the way to a 2000-Watt society'. These scenarios deal with the development of energy demand and electricity offerings in Switzerland for the period 1990 to 2035. They are reviewed in the light of various sensitivity factors. These sensitivity factors include a high GDP, oil prices of 50 US-dollars per barrel and a warmer climate. The report presents the results of the model calculations made. First of all, the report takes a look at the motivation and aims behind the work and discusses the modelling methods, system limits and conventions used and the possibilities offered by the perspectives as well as the limits encountered. The four scenarios are then presented and discussed in detail. Implementation variants in the private, services, industrial and traffic sectors are discussed and various electricity supply variants are presented, as are the associated environmental issues involved. The scenarios are compared with each other and pricing and security of supply issues are discussed. Finally, a short synopsis of the scenarios is presented and decision criteria are discussed as are implementation instruments. Ethical dilemmas and the risks involved are noted

  8. World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

    2013-01-01

    The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

  9. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  10. Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, Lu; Fuller, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenario considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period if the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2

  11. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  12. Sustainable energy prices and growth. Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlroth, Sofia; Hoejer, Mattias

    2007-01-01

    How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they do not, mostly - they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them. Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth. The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low

  13. User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

    2017-04-01

    In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

  14. Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

    2002-01-01

    Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

  15. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  16. Estonian electricity supply scenarios for 2020 and their environmental performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koskela, Sirkka; Seppaelae, Jyri; Hiltunen, Marja-Riitta [Research Programme for Production and Consumption, Finnish Environment Institute, P.O. Box 140, 00251 Helsinki (Finland); Lipp, Ando; Pold, Evelin; Talve, Siret [CyclePlan Ltd, Akadeemia road 33, 12618 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2007-07-15

    Estonia is the only country in Europe with significant environmentally intensive oil shale-based energy production. However, the legal obligations of the EU will make substantial changes over the coming years to current electricity production technology. Increasing the use of alternative energy carriers for responding to future requirements has also been in focus. In this study, three different future electricity supply scenarios for Estonia in 2020 are considered and compared to the situation in 2002. They are based on domestic oil shale, imported natural gas, and imported nuclear power. According to the aims of the national energy policy, renewable energy sources were raised to 10% in all scenarios. Using the LCA methodology, the least damaging impact on the environment occurs in the 'nuclear scenario', with nuclear energy as the main energy source. The best scenario, however, depends on the weight or acceptance of accidental releases or other impacts not defined in this context. The 'Oil shale scenario' would be a slightly more damaging alternative than the 'Natural gas scenario' even if new technical solutions will remarkably improve the environmental performance of oil shale electricity production. Land use and waste disposal are crucial issues, particularly for oil shale and nuclear electricity production. However, the depletion of oil shale is not as critical an issue as the depletion of natural gas and uranium. According to the significance analysis of impact categories, climate change is the most significant impact on the environment in the scenarios. Future decisions on the development of the Estonian energy sector are most likely to be based on technological, economical and political aspects. Political aspects are likely to be the most significant. However, this type of study can give additional value to the discussion due to the increasing role of sustainability in energy issues. (author)

  17. Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

    2015-01-01

    In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 ). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track. An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20-30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area. Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to

  18. China Land-Use Change Simulation Under Climate Mitigation Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    DONG, N.; Lin, H.

    2016-12-01

    Future land-use change responses to human activities and plays a significant role in the whole earth system. Land use data in most climatic models are static which result in a decreased accuracy of evaluation of human activities and also largely lower the efficiency of policy makers. After the RCP scenarios came out, the land use change trends in China for the near future were rarely shown. This paper provides a method to simulate the future land use change in China based on climate mitigation scenarios. The MCD12Q1 product of MODIS and HYDE32 data are combined to make the base land use maps for China of 2005 and 2010. Totally four scenarios are made according to the Chinese national land use overall plan outlines and the statistic data from GCAM. Driving factors from social-economic, ecologic and spatial location aspects are considered including GDP, population density, temperature, precipitation, dominant soil type, elevation, slope, distance to roads, distance to rivers and distance to cities. Simulation is then carried out in 14 agricultural-zones desperately with Dyna-CLUE. Each scenario reflects seperate effects of human activities on land use change. Plan scenario represents the stage of a high speed of urban expansion. Under the condition that urban area would not largely change, the other three GCAM scenarios mainly discuss the situations focused on the change of vegetation cover. We find that: (1)The urban area expands largely in Plan scenario, and G2.6 gets the most forest and crop area which shows environment-friendly human activities to the ecologic balance (Figure 1a,1b). (2) Compare to the 2010 land use map, forest increases mainly happen in the northeast China and central plains region under the G2.6 scenario. However, urban expansion under the Plan scenario occurs not in the Yangtze River Delta or Pearl River Delta economic region but in the second or third developed level cities such as Wuhan, Jinan, and Nanchang (Figure1c,1d). (3)The kappa value

  19. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining

  20. Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Star, Jonathan; Fisichelli, Nicholas; Bryan, Alexander; Babson, Amanda; Cole-Will, Rebecca; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

    2016-01-01

    This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine (ACAD). The primary objective of the workshop was to help ACAD senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures (Martin et al. 2011, McBride et al. 2012).

  1. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  2. Atlantic Forest scenarios under the parameters of forestry laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliane Garcia da Silva

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Remote sensing allows for identification of regularities and irregularities in land use and land coverage (LULC change in relation to environmental legislation. The aim of this study was to delimit scenarios in the permanent preservation areas (PPAs according to the Brazilian forestry law, with or without consolidated uses in the basin of Capivari River and the State of Rio de Janeiro in the Atlantic Forest biome. Mapping and analysis were performed on LULC in areas of permanent preservation using the following data: RapidEye-REIS satellite scenes acquired in 2012 and Bhattacharyya distance classifier and hydrography of the basin and digital elevation model (1:25.000 using Spring and ArcGIS software. The legal scenarios adopted were as follows: I Federal Law N°. 4,771/1965 and the National Council for the Environment (CONAMA N°. 303/2002; II Federal Law N°. 12,651/2012; and III Federal Law N°. 12,651/2012 and N°. 12,727/2012. The classification presented an excellent overall accuracy of 91.15% and a Kappa Index of 0.86 in relation to the samples of the six multipurpose classes having the anthropic uses of agriculture, burned pasture, exposed soil and urbanization, which were present with conflicting uses for Scenarios I, II and III. The new forest legislation for the PPAs of Scenario III impacted the reduction of 68% compared to Scenario I, which corroborates with the concerns on the conservation of water and soil resources.

  3. Scientific data and climate scenarios. Study report nr 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alex, Bastien; Baillat, Alice; Francois Gemenne; Jean Jouzel

    2017-05-01

    The objective of this report is to present climate evolutions and their impacts according to two warming scenarios: a 2 degree increase of the average surface temperature by 2100 (i.e. the most optimistic IPCC scenario), and a 5 degree increase by 2100 (the most pessimistic scenario). As far as possible, physical, social and economic, and health impacts are assessed by 2030 and 2050. The authors notice that the differences between both scenarios are hardly discernible by 2030, but more obviously by 2050. After a brief recall on IPCC scenarios, a first part addresses the evolutions of the world climate by considering the atmosphere (temperature increase, modification of precipitation regimes), seas and oceans (temperature, currents and thermal circulation, ocean acidification, seal level rise), extreme climate events (observations and trends, main impacts on populations and infrastructures), and the cryo-sphere (observations and impacts). The second part discusses regional predictions in terms of trends and impacts for metropolitan France and its overseas territories, for Africa, and for the Asia-Pacific region. The last part briefly discusses the possibly necessary evolution of the typology chosen to determine sources of vulnerability and the level of exposure to different risks. Many appendices propose more detailed presentations on specific issues and examples. A summarised version of the report is also provided

  4. Scenarios and innovative systems; Scenarii et systemes innovants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  5. Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

  6. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P. [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B. [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  7. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  8. Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.

    2001-06-05

    A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing.

  9. Ensemble streamflow predictions: from climate scenarios to probabilistic weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortin, V.; Evora, N.; Perreault, L.; Trinh, N.; Favre, A.; Benoit, H.

    2004-05-01

    Ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP) are obtained by processing an ensemble of meteorological scenarios through a rainfall-runoff hydrological model to obtain hydrological scenarios. Until recently, these scenarios were typically taken from the climatology. Now that more accurate medium- and long-term numerical weather predictions (NWP) are available, it is tempting to replace climatology by numerical weather forecasts. At least two approaches are possible to take into account the uncerta1000 inty on the meteorological forecast: (1) let a meteorologist propose a subjective probabilistic forecast based on one or more deterministic NWPs, or (2) take advantage of ensemble meteorological forecasts, which are built precisely to assess the level of uncertainty on the deterministic forecast. Practical solutions to problems encountered with both types of meteorological forecasts are discussed, and the methodology used by Hydro-Québec to score the resulting streamflow forecasts is presented.

  10. Explaining superfoods: exploring metaphor scenarios in media science reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Breeze

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Metaphorical language plays an important role in spreading and popularising scientific information. However, little is known about the process through which sober scientific research is transformed into colourful or even sensational news. This paper examines the main metaphor scenarios used to explain nutritional discoveries, generally related to the overarching metaphors of “combat” and “maintenance”, and explores how they are developed and distributed across institutional press releases, online news reports, and magazines/blogs. Most of the metaphor scenarios seem to arise first in the press release, but these are considerably extended and embellished by the other media. Only occasionally are new metaphor scenarios engaged, which reflect societal discourses concerning science and nutrition.

  11. Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.

    2001-01-01

    A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing

  12. Local and regional low carbon scenarios methodology, challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    In its first part, this report discusses the emergence of local climate and energy policy in Europe, the implementation of nationally imposed but regionally anchored energy scenarios (i.e. in France, the Climate Air Energy Regional Schemes or SRCAE). Then it addresses the methodological and political aspects of local and regional low emission scenarios: methodologies and typologies of energy scenarios, ways to define an appropriate emission reduction and energy consumption objective, ways to deal with emission or carbon gaps, ways to make local emission inventories, ways to gather local data, ways to deal with special emission sources, ways to assess and develop local energy efficiency and renewable energy potentials, ways to take energy sufficiency into account, and the evolution from energy autonomy to 100% renewable energy territories. The last part addresses the issues of stake holder and citizen participation in the definition of long term strategies

  13. Scenario analysis and strategic planning: practical applications for radiology practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lexa, Frank James; Chan, Stephen

    2010-05-01

    Modern business science has many tools that can be of great value to radiologists and their practices. One of the most important and underused is long-term planning. Part of the problem has been the pace of change. Making a 5-year plan makes sense only if your develop robust scenarios of possible future conditions you will face. Scenario analysis is one of many highly regarded tools that can improve your predictive capability. However, as with many tools, it pays to have some training and to get practical tips on how to improve their value. It also helps to learn from other people's mistakes rather than your own. The authors discuss both theoretical and practical issues in using scenario analysis to improve your planning process. They discuss actionable ways this set of tools can be applied in a group meeting or retreat. Copyright (c) 2010 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. A scenario for interstellar exploration and its financing

    CERN Document Server

    Bignami, Giovanni F

    2013-01-01

    This book develops a credible scenario for interstellar exploration and colonization. In so doing, it examines: • the present situation and prospects for interstellar exploration technologies; • where to go: the search for habitable planets; • the motivations for space travel and colonization; • the financial mechanisms required to fund such enterprises. The final section of the book analyzes the uncertainties surrounding the presented scenario. The purpose of building a scenario is not only to pinpoint future events but also to highlight the uncertainties that may propel the future in different directions. Interstellar travel and colonization requires a civilization in which human beings see themselves as inhabitants of a single planet and in which global governance of these processes is conducted on a cooperative basis. The key question is, then, whether our present civilization is ready for such an endeavor, reflecting the fact that the critical uncertainties are political and cultural in nature. I...

  15. Identification of reference accident scenarios in SEVESO establishments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delvosalle, C.; Fievez, C.; Pipart, A.; Fabrega, J. Casal; Planas, E.; Christou, M.; Mushtaq, F.

    2005-01-01

    In the frame of the ESREL special session on ARAMIS project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the first Work Package, devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment, and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. A first part of the work aims at building a Methodology for the Identification of Major Accident Hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. This work is coupled with an historical analysis of accidents. In a second part, influence of safety devices and policies will be considered, in order to build a Methodology for the Identification of Reference Accident Scenarios (MIRAS). This last one will take into account safety systems and lead to obtain more realistic scenarios

  16. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations; Scenari energetici italiani a confronto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contaldi, Mario [Agenzia per la Protezione dell' Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici-APAT, Roma (Italy)

    2005-09-15

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed. [Italian] Questo articolo riporta alcuni dei piu rappresentativi ed aggiornati scenari di evoluzione dei consumi energetici primari italiani. Dopo un esame delle principali variabili macroeconomiche i risultati degli scenari sono esaminati a livello di settore, con una breve discussione delle principali variabili utilizzate. Infine sono state anche esaminate le emissioni di CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} e NO{sub x} risultanti dai diversi scenari e le possibili conseguenze sul piano normativo.

  17. Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2014-01-01

    Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability

  18. Changing paradigms of anti-VEGF in the Indian scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Mahesh Shanmugam

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-vascular endothelial growth factors (VEGF agents have revolutionized the treatment of retinal diseases. Use of anti-VEGF agents in the Indian Scenario present some unique challenges considering the absence of compounding pharmacies, poor penetrance of health insurance and limited affordability of the citizens of a developing economy. To study the changing paradigms of anti-VEGF use in the Indian scenario, all articles published by Indian authors, data from web-based surveys amongst Indian vitreo-retinal specialists were reviewed. In the paucity of compounding pharmacies in India, fractionation and injection techniques differ from those of developed countries. Frequent anti-VEGF monotherapy offers the best anatomical and visual results, but economics of scale do not allow the same in the Indian scenario, resulting in PRN dosing and combination of anti-VEGF with laser photocoagulation, being the commonly employed treatment protocols.

  19. ComplexRec 2017: Recommendation in Complex Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Recommendation algorithms for ratings prediction and item ranking have steadily matured during the past decade. However, these state-of-the-art algorithms are typically applied in relatively straightforward scenarios. In reality, recommendation is often a more complex problem: it is usually just...... a single step in the user's more complex background need. These background needs can often place a variety of constraints on which recommendations are interesting to the user and when they are appropriate. However, relatively little research has been done on these complex recommendation scenarios....... The ComplexRec 2017 workshop addressed this by providing an interactive venue for discussing approaches to recommendation in complex scenarios that have no simple one-size-fits-all-solution....

  20. Workshop on Recommendation in Complex Scenarios (ComplexRec 2017)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogers, Toine; Koolen, Marijn; Mobasher, Bamshad

    2017-01-01

    Recommendation algorithms for ratings prediction and item ranking have steadily matured during the past decade. However, these state-of-the-art algorithms are typically applied in relatively straightforward scenarios. In reality, recommendation is often a more complex problem: it is usually just...... a single step in the user's more complex background need. These background needs can often place a variety of constraints on which recommendations are interesting to the user and when they are appropriate. However, relatively little research has been done on these complex recommendation scenarios....... The ComplexRec 2017 workshop addressed this by providing an interactive venue for discussing approaches to recommendation in complex scenarios that have no simple one-size-fits-all-solution....

  1. Quantitative Verification and Synthesis of Attack-Defence Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming; Parker, David

    2016-01-01

    Attack-defence trees are a powerful technique for formally evaluating attack-defence scenarios. They represent in an intuitive, graphical way the interaction between an attacker and a defender who compete in order to achieve conflicting objectives. We propose a novel framework for the formal...... analysis of quantitative properties of complex attack-defence scenarios, using an extension of attack-defence trees which models temporal ordering of actions and allows explicit dependencies in the strategies adopted by attackers and defenders. We adopt a game-theoretic approach, translating attack......-defence trees to two-player stochastic games, and then employ probabilistic model checking techniques to formally analyse these models. This provides a means to both verify formally specified security properties of the attack-defence scenarios and, dually, to synthesise strategies for attackers or defenders...

  2. A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

    2017-02-16

    A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-induced wave action would affect island morphology. These events were categorized on the basis of the threshold of total water level and duration to create a set of storm scenarios that were simulated, using a high-fidelity, process-based, morphologic evolution model, on an idealized digital elevation model of the Chandeleur Islands. The simulated morphological changes resulting from these scenarios provide a range of impacts that can help coastal managers determine resiliency of proposed or existing coastal structures and identify vulnerable areas within those structures.

  3. Scenario approximation in a phenomenological study in Mexico: experience report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Fernando Guerrero-Castañeda

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To report our experience using scenario approximation in a phenomenological study of nursing in Mexico. Method: Experience report on scenario approximation to coexist with elderly in order to select the participants of a phenomenological study. Results: During a four-month period in 2016, visits were carried out two groups of elderly individuals where several activities were carried out. Coexistence with the elderly throughout accompaniment in the groups' activities together with joint dialogue allowed selection of those who corresponded to the characteristics of the study objective. Conclusion: Scenario approximation is necessary in phenomenological studies, not only for creating empathy among the participants but also for the researchers to immerse themselves in the phenomenon under study, as shown by the first approaches of the researcher.

  4. The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok

    2014-01-01

    by assuming a decrease of biomass availability for the electricity and heat sectors respectively. The base line scenario for reducing biomass is set to be IDA 2050. The results show that reduction of biomass use in the heat sector could reduce biomass consumption with less electricity exported than...... than the other scenarios but also a system more self-reliant in terms of electricity with the least international interconnection capacity. The CC2050 scenario builds a more electrified energy system through producing weather dependent, thus intermittent RES rather than biomass and integrating more...... there might be limits on the environmental capacity and opposition against biomass usage for societal and political reasons in the future. For clarifying better usage of biomass in a 100% renewable energy system, biomass usage for either heat production or electricity generation is compared in this thesis...

  5. Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

  6. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  7. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geneletti, Davide

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: ► The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. ► Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. ► Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.

  9. The expansion of Brazilian agriculture: Soil erosion scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo H. Merten

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available During the next 10 years Brazil’s agricultural area will expand to meet increased domestic and worldwide demand for food, fuel, and fiber. Present choices regarding land use will determine to what degree this expansion will have adverse effects that include soil erosion, reservoir siltation, water quality problems, loss of biodiversity and social conflict, especially around indigenous reservations. This paper presents an up-to-date inventory of soil erosion in Brazil caused by crop and livestock activities and provides estimates based on three different hypothetical land-use scenarios to accommodate the expansion of Brazilian agricultural activity by 2020: Scenario 1 – expansion of cropping into areas of natural vegetation, without adoption of conservation practices; Scenario 2 – expansion of cropping into areas of degraded pasture, without adoption of conservation practices; Scenario 3 – expansion of cropping into areas of degraded pasture, together with conservation practices in 100% of the expanded area. The worst-case scenario involves expansion of agriculture into areas of native vegetation in the Brazilian Savannah (Cerrado and Brazilian rainforest (Amazon biomes, and could increase total soil erosion in Brazil (currently about 800 million metric tons a year by as much as 20%. In the best-case scenario, crop expansion under a conservation agriculture model would utilize currently degraded pasture, especially in the Savannah (circa 40 million hectares, reducing soil erosion in Brazil by around 20%. For this to occur, however, a national soil and water conservation policy needs to be implemented in Brazil to support a sustainable model of agriculture in which the environment can be preserved as much as possible.

  10. Large fire scenarios in relation to sabotage of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contri, P.; Guerpinar, A.; ); Schneider, U.

    2005-01-01

    The analyses of sabotage scenarios carried out in recent years identified two major damaging mechanisms associated with such scenarios, namely: the mechanical interaction of solid bodies or pressure waves with the installations and the fire-related effects from burning substances. While the former effect may be addressed by available analytical tools developed for accidental scenarios, the latter deserves a new, specific engineering effort. In fact, all nuclear facilities are designed in relation to accidental fires; even so, they need to be assessed in relation to sabotage induced fire scenarios due to the special characteristics of such scenarios, not addressed by the current engineering practice for the design of nuclear installations. Conventional fire hazard analysis is based on the hypothesis of the presence of combustible materials in the buildings and limited number of contemporaneous sources of fire. In addition, conventional fire safety assessment relies upon the presence of mitigation measures and fire related operational procedures. In a sabotage event the validity of all these assumptions need to be checked and if the assumptions cannot be supported, then the analysis should be revised and other alternatives of protection should be developed. Also the implementation of emergency planning should be reviewed to take account of this concern. This paper collects state-of-the-art experience from some Countries, which represents the background information for the development of new IAEA documents in this field. The paper reviews how the current design practice for nuclear installations can cope with large fire scenarios caused by malevolent actions and provides recommendations to designers and operators on how to address these issues in a reasonable framework. (authors)

  11. Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2013-01-01

    Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

  12. Overview of EMF 22 U.S. transition scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fawcett, Allen A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chesnaye, Francisco C. de la; Reilly, John M.; Weyant, John P.

    2009-01-01

    The Energy Modeling Forum 22 study included a set of U.S. transition scenarios designed to bracket a range of potential U.S. climate policy goals. Models from the six teams that participated in this part of the study include models that have been prominently involved in analyzing proposed U.S. climate legislation, as well as models that have been involved in the Climate Change Science Program and other parts of this EMF 22 study. This paper presents an overview of the results from the U.S. transition scenarios, and provides insights into the comparison of results from the participating models. (author)

  13. Globalisation, international transport and the global environment. A scenario approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Veen-Groot, D.B.; Nijkamp, P.

    1999-01-01

    The project 'Globalisation, International Transport and the Global Environment' aims to investigate the consequences of globalisation for international transport for global environmental quality as reflected in greenhouse gases in a very general sense. The policy aim (global/European) is to analyse the influence of international policy (Kyoto/IPCC/changes in carbon taxes) on transport volumes, intermodal substitutions or vehicle size and its implications for the environment. This short-paper aims to give an overview of the state-of-the-art of the title project. Attention will be paid to the assessment of trends, the scenario method, the conceptual framework and four qualitative globalisation scenarios. 16 refs

  14. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

  15. Phasing out nuclear in Germany: scenarios of energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knopf, Brigitte; Pahle, Michael; Kondziella, Hendrik; Goetz, Mario; Bruckner, Thomas; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Stark, Hans; Rittelmeyer, Yann-Sven; Wissmann, Nele; Vitasse, Thomas

    2012-02-01

    After the German decision taken in 2011 to phase out nuclear, the authors analyse different scenarios of energy transition, and study the consequences of this phasing out in terms of energy needs provided by fossil fuel plants, of electricity price for households and for industries, and of CO 2 emissions. Independently from the development of renewable energies, the different effects of gas and coal plants replacing nuclear energy have been calculated and compared, and other possible scenarios have been explored. The author also discuss requirements in terms of governance for grid development, for a coordinated European policy of energy and climate, and for transparency and scientific follow-up

  16. Multicell Cooperation for LTE-Advanced Heterogeneous Network Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soret, Beatriz; Wang, Hua; Rosa, Claudio

    2013-01-01

    In this article we present two promising practical use cases for simple multicell cooperation for LTE-Advanced heterogeneous network (HetNet) scenarios with macro and small cells. For co-channel deployment cases, we recommend the use of enhanced inter-cell interference coordination (eICIC) to mit......In this article we present two promising practical use cases for simple multicell cooperation for LTE-Advanced heterogeneous network (HetNet) scenarios with macro and small cells. For co-channel deployment cases, we recommend the use of enhanced inter-cell interference coordination (e...... system level simulation results illustrate the performance benefits of the presented techniques....

  17. Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rummukainen, Markku; Räisänen, J.; Bjørge, D.

    2003-01-01

    According to global climate projections, a substantial global climate change will occur during the next decades, under the assumption of continuous anthropogenic climate forcing. Global models, although fundamental in simulating the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing are typi......-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding....... do not yet fully incorporate hydrology. Water resources studies are carried out off-line using hydrological models. This requires archived meteorological output from climate models. This paper discusses Nordic regional climate scenarios for use in regional water resources studies. Potential end...

  18. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

    2007-01-01

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO 2 emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO 2 releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  19. Multi-modal Virtual Scenario Enhances Neurofeedback Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avihay Cohen

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade neurofeedback has become the focus of a growing body of research. With real-time fMRI enabling on-line monitoring of emotion related areas such as the amygdala, many have begun testing its therapeutic benefits. However most existing neurofeedback procedures still use monotonic uni-modal interfaces, thus possibly limiting user engagement and weakening learning efficiency. The current study tested a novel multi-sensory neurofeedback animated scenario aimed at enhancing user experience and improving learning. We examined whether relative to a simple uni-modal 2D interface, learning via an interface of complex multi-modal 3D scenario will result in improved neurofeedback learning. As a neural-probe, we used the recently developed fMRI-inspired EEG model of amygdala activity (amygdala-EEG finger print; amygdala-EFP, enabling low-cost and mobile limbic neurofeedback training. Amygdala-EFP was reflected in the animated scenario by the unrest level of a hospital waiting-room in which virtual characters become impatient, approach the admission-desk and complain loudly. Successful down-regulation was reflected as an ease in the room unrest-level. We tested whether relative to a standard uni-modal 2D graphic thermometer interface, this animated scenario could facilitate more effective learning and improve the training experience. Thirty participants underwent two separated neurofeedback sessions (one-week apart practicing down-regulation of the amygdala-EFP signal. In the first session, half trained via the animated scenario and half via a thermometer interface. Learning efficiency was tested by three parameters: (a effect-size of the change in amygdala-EFP following training, (b sustainability of the learned down-regulation in the absence of online feedback, and (c transferability to an unfamiliar context. Comparing amygdala-EFP signal amplitude between the last and the first neurofeedback trials revealed that the animated scenario

  20. Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national...... economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland...

  1. Study of hazardous scenario in service stations. Final report; Etude de scenarios dangereux en stations-service. Rapport final

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-10-01

    The industrial environment group is working at the elaboration of prescriptions applicable to classed installations submitted to declaration (heading 1434: fill in and distribution of inflammable liquids). In this context the group asked the INERIS to realize a list of possible accidents scenario, to quantify the consequences in terms of safety distances, to identify the most pertinent scenario and to examine the particular cases which allow to reduce the safety distances especially the implementing of a fire break wall of two hours. (A.L.B.)

  2. Considerations in linking energy scenario modeling and Life Cycle Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) has been exploring approaches for estimating U.S. anthropogenic air pollutant emissions through the mid-21st century. As a result, we have developed the Emission Scenario Projection methodology, or ESP. In this document, we pr...

  3. Geoprospective: from the acquired data, to the scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escalier des Orres, P.; Blanc, P.L.

    1994-06-01

    The present paper discusses the relationships between the French regulatory safety rule for radwaste deep disposal (RFS no. III.2.f), the geological (external geodynamics) data available when the rule was discussed, and the present geoprospective studies and scenarios to be taken into account in the safety assessment of an underground disposal site. (authors). 11 refs., 3 figs

  4. A Blended Learning Scenario to Enhance Learners' Oral Production Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hee-Kyung

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the effectiveness of a mobile assisted blended learning scenario for pronunciation in Korean language. In particular, we analyze how asynchronous oral communication between learners of Korean and native speakers via "kakaotalk" (an open source mobile phone application) may be beneficial to the learner in terms of…

  5. Robot dispatching Scenario for Accident Condition Monitoring of NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jongseog

    2013-01-01

    In March of 2011, unanticipated big size of tsunami attacks Fukushima NPP, this accident results in explosion of containment building. Tokyo electric power of Japan couldn't dispatch a robot for monitoring of containment inside. USA Packbot robot used for desert war in Iraq was supplied to Fukushima NPP for monitoring of high radiation area. Packbot also couldn't reach deep inside of Fukushima NPP due to short length of power cable. Japanese robot 'Queens' also failed to complete a mission due to communication problem between robot and operator. I think major reason of these robot failures is absence of robot dispatching scenario. If there was a scenario and a rehearsal for monitoring during or after accident, these unanticipated obstacles could be overcome. Robot dispatching scenario studied for accident of nuclear power plant was described herein. Study on scenario of robot dispatching is performed. Flying robot is regarded as good choice for accident monitoring. Walking robot with arm equipped is good for emergency valve close. Short time work and shift work by several robots can be a solution for high radiation area. Thin and soft cable with rolling reel can be a good solution for long time work and good communication

  6. Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-11-15

    This WEC study is bottom-up regional view of our energy future focusing on policies to ensure energy sustainability. Experts from five regions and all energy domains worked together to produce four different scenarios to predict how differing levels of cooperation and government involvement would affect the energy future of the world.

  7. Robot dispatching Scenario for Accident Condition Monitoring of NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jongseog [Central Research Institute of Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-05-15

    In March of 2011, unanticipated big size of tsunami attacks Fukushima NPP, this accident results in explosion of containment building. Tokyo electric power of Japan couldn't dispatch a robot for monitoring of containment inside. USA Packbot robot used for desert war in Iraq was supplied to Fukushima NPP for monitoring of high radiation area. Packbot also couldn't reach deep inside of Fukushima NPP due to short length of power cable. Japanese robot 'Queens' also failed to complete a mission due to communication problem between robot and operator. I think major reason of these robot failures is absence of robot dispatching scenario. If there was a scenario and a rehearsal for monitoring during or after accident, these unanticipated obstacles could be overcome. Robot dispatching scenario studied for accident of nuclear power plant was described herein. Study on scenario of robot dispatching is performed. Flying robot is regarded as good choice for accident monitoring. Walking robot with arm equipped is good for emergency valve close. Short time work and shift work by several robots can be a solution for high radiation area. Thin and soft cable with rolling reel can be a good solution for long time work and good communication.

  8. Scenarios : tools for coping with complexity and future uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perez-Soba, M.; Maas, R.

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  9. Summary of FY-1978 consultation input for Scenario Methodology Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, B.L.; Benson, G.L.; Craig, R.A.; Harwell, M.A.

    1979-11-01

    The Scenario Methodology Development task is concerned with evaluating the geologic system surrounding an underground repository and describing the phenomena (volcanic, seismic, meteorite, hydrologic, tectonic, climate, etc.) which could perturb the system and possibly cause loss of repository integrity. This document includes 14 individual papers. Separate abstracts were prepared for all 14 papers

  10. Risk estimation in non-line-of-sight scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nunen, E. van; Broek, T.H.A. van den; Wolferen, J. van

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a collision warning application is described. The collision warning application is in particular useful when the driver’s view is blocked due to a large vehicle. The risk estimation algorithm, which is originally designed and validated in scenarios with vulnerable road users, is here

  11. simulating rice yields under climate change scenarios using

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    The effects of climate change on rice production and yield cannot be overlooked in finding measures to increase production and yield. The CERES-Rice (Ver. 4.0) model was calibrated and evaluated for use in simulating rice yields under different climate change scenarios in Ghana using data from the Anum Valley ...

  12. 181 Farmers Adoption Scenarios for the Control of Cassava Mosaic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    exchange earner were highlighted and brought to lime light. ... expansion of postharvest processing and marketing outlets for cassava products. ... Purpose of the Study. The purpose of the study was to determine the farmers' adoption scenarios under the. Cassava Enterprise Development Project in Enugu State, Nigeria.

  13. Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired locationby spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression.Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared withconventional depletion curve for present ...

  14. Environmental evaluation of waste management scenarios - significance of the boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghinea, C.; Petraru, M.; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Gavrilescu, M.

    2012-01-01

    Life cycle concept was applied to analyse and assess some municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios in terms of environmental impacts, particularised for Iasi city, Romania, where approximately 380 kg/cap/yr of waste are generated. Currently, the management processes include temporary

  15. Drivers and Outcomes of Scenario Planning: A Canonical Correlation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Nimon, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The paper's aim is to report a research study on the mediator and outcome variable sets in scenario planning. Design/methodology/approach: This is a cannonical correlation analysis (CCA) Findings Two sets of variables; one as a predictor set that explained a significant amount of variability in the second, or outcome set of variables were…

  16. The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Reports of Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Coons, Laura M.; O'barr, Gregory; Khatami, Shiva

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is to examine the effects of scenario planning on participant ratings of resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The research design is a quasi experimental pretest/posttest with treatment and control groups. Random selection or assignment was not achieved. Findings: Results show a significant difference in…

  17. The Role of Perpetrator Motivation in Two Crime Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizemore, O. J.

    2013-01-01

    Undergraduate volunteers (n = 134) were randomly assigned in a 2 x 2 design that manipulated type of crime (rape vs. robbery) and perpetrator motivation (anger vs. desire). After reading one of the crime scenarios, participants responded to a series of attitude items regarding responsibility for the crime, assigned blame to agents mentioned in the…

  18. Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal. Pradesh ...

  19. Data Input and Content Exploration in Scenarios with Restrictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.C. Pedrosa

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractAs technology evolves, new devices and interaction techniques are developed. These transformations create several challenges in terms of usability and user experience. Our research faces some challenges for data input or content exploration in scenarios with restrictions. It is not our

  20. Issues and scenarios for nuclear waste management systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendel, J.E.

    1980-11-01

    The Planning and Analysis Branch of the Department of Energy's Nuclear Waste Management Programs is developing a new systems integration program. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory was requested to perform a brief scoping analysis of what scenarios, questions, and issues should be addressed by the systems integration program. This document reports on that scoping analysis

  1. Search for Higgs boson in beyond standard model scenarios at ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The principal physics motivation of the LHC experiments is to search for the Higgs boson and to probe the physics of TeV energy scale. Potential of discovery for Higgs bosons in various scenarios beyond standard model have been estimated for both CMS and ATLAS experiments through detailed detector simulations.

  2. Simulating rice yields under climate change scenarios using the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of climate change on rice production and yield cannot be overlooked in finding measures to increase production and yield. The CERES-Rice (Ver. 4.0) model was calibrated and evaluated for use in simulating rice yields under different climate change scenarios in Ghana using data from the Anum Valley ...

  3. Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2017-02-09

    Feb 9, 2017 ... Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India. K T Senzeba, S Rajkumari, A Bhadra and A Bandyopadhyay. ∗. Department of Agricultural Engineering, North Eastern Regional Institute of Science and Technology,. Nirjuli (Itanagar), Arunachal ...

  4. The Impact of Tourism on Curacao's Economy: A Scenario Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jelsma, L.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    Curaçao is an autonomous country
    within the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The government
    wants to support tourism development. However,
    various development strategies are possible. This article
    presents four scenarios of marketing and investment
    strategies that will affect the

  5. Palestinian-Israeli Scenario Planning - Phase II | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    As currently foreseen, neither the two-state nor the one-state solution offers much hope of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Scenario Planning Program of the Strategic Assessments Initiative (SAI) aims to launch a deeper examination of what a sustainable solution requires by shifting the debate from the ...

  6. The Effect of Adaptive Learning Style Scenarios on Learning Achievements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bozhilov, Danail; Stefanov, Krassen; Stoyanov, Slavi

    2009-01-01

    Bozhilov, D., Stefanov, K., & Stoyanov, S. (2008). The Effect of Adaptive Learning Style Scenarios on Learning Achievements. In R. Koper, K. Stefanov & D. Dicheva (Eds.), Proceedings of the 5th International TENCompetence Open Workshop "Stimulating Personal Development and Knowledge Sharing" (pp.

  7. Generating objects: a method bases on documents and scenarios ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper proposes an original method based on Froms and Scenarios analysis in the information systems( IS) Engineering domain with advantage of producing a conceptual object- oriented schema of the future IS. The advantages of our suggested approach consists in using simple elements (forms, information flowchart ...

  8. Regional climate change scenarios for México

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez-Salvador, Begoña; Sánchez, O.; Gay, C.

    In this paper we present the regional climate change scenarios that were used for the assessment of the potential impacts in México on agriculture, livestock, forestry, hydrological resources as well as on human settlements and biodiversity. Those studies were developed for the Fourth Communication

  9. Using multicriteria analysis to develop environmental flow scenarios ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DRIFT is an interactive, holistic approach for advising on environmental flows for rivers. The DRIFT methodology, together with multicriteria analysis (MCA), can be used to provide flow scenarios and descriptive summaries of their consequences in terms of the condition of the river ecosystem, for examination and ...

  10. Simulation of regional day-ahead PV power forecast scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nuno, Edgar; Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2017-01-01

    at the expense of a high computational burden. Alternatively, some power system applications may require realistic forecasts rather than actual estimates; able to capture the uncertainty of weatherdriven generation. To this end, we propose a novel methodology to generate day-ahead forecast scenarios of regional...

  11. Workshop IV – Cosmology-theoretical models/alternative scenarios ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Workshop IV – Cosmology-theoretical models/alternative scenarios: A report. ASIT BANERJEE. ½ and REZA TAVAKOL. 2. ½. Department of Physics, Jadavpur University, Calcutta 700 032, India. ¾. Astronomy Unit, School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary and Westfield College, Mile End. Road, London E1 4NS, UK.

  12. Quintessential inflation: A unified scenario of inflation and dark energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossain Wali

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Quintessential inflation unifies inflation and late time acceleration by a single scalar field. Such a scenario, with canonical and non-canonical scalar fields, has been discussed. The scalar field behaves as an inflaton field during inflation and as a quintessence field during late time. Also the predictions of the models has been compared with the recent Planck data.

  13. Design storytelling with future scenario development; envisioning "the museum"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eggink, Wouter; Albert de la Bruheze, Adri A.

    2015-01-01

    There are different ways to tell stories with design. This paper shows possibilities of telling stories by envisioning the future. Overall, design has the very ability to envision, visualize and express things that do not exist yet. We introduce the Future Scenario Development Design methodology as

  14. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  15. Multiple spin-state scenarios in organometallic reactivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dzik, W.I.; Böhmer, W.; de Bruin, B.; Swart, M.; Costas, M.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter gives an overview of the different spin-state crossing scenarios affecting the reactivity of organometallic compounds. It focuses on the effects of crossing spin states in a number of elementary reactions typically observed for organometallic compounds, such as ligand exchange,

  16. Global post-Kyoto scenario analyses at PSI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    Scenario analyses are described here using the Global MARKAL-Macro Trade (GMMT) model to study the economic implications of the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Convention on Climate change. Some conclusions are derived in terms of efficient implementations of the post-Kyoto extensions of the Protocol. (author) 2 figs., 5 refs.

  17. Ecodriver. D13.1: Evaluation Plan and Scenario Definition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seewald, P.; Stuiver, A.

    2014-01-01

    This deliverable provides the evaluation plan and an approach to scenario development for the SP1 experiments in ecoDriver. On this basis, ten different experiments for driving simulators and instrumented vehicles have been created by the partners. The experiments are described in detail within the

  18. Minority heating scenarios in and SST-1 plasmas

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Asim Kumar Chattopadhyay

    2017-12-19

    Dec 19, 2017 ... Abstract. A numerical analysis of ion cyclotron resonance heating scenarios in two species of low ion temperature plasma has been done to elucidate the physics and possibility to achieve H-mode in tokamak plasma. The analysis is done in the steady-state superconducting tokamak, SST-1, using phase-I ...

  19. Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios foran eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of ArunachalPradesh ...

  20. Quantitative Verification and Synthesis of Attack-Defence Scenarios Conference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming; Parker, David

    Attack-defence trees are a powerful technique for formally evaluating attack-defence scenarios. They represent in an intuitive, graphical way the interaction between an attacker and a defender who compete in order to achieve conflicting objectives. We propose a novel framework for the formal

  1. Conditioning Factors for Group Management in Blended Learning Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Sanagustín, Mar; Hernández-Leo, Davinia; Blat, Josep

    2009-01-01

    Pérez-Sanagustín, M., Hernández-Leo D., & Blat, J. (accepted). Conditioning Factors for Group Management in Blended Learning Scenarios. The 9th IEEE International Conference on Advanced Learning Technologies. July, 14-18, 2009, Riga, Latvia.

  2. The solar neutrino puzzle present situation and future scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Aliani, P.; Ferrari, R.; Picariello, M.; Torrente-Lujan, E.

    2002-01-01

    We present a short review of the existing evidence in favor of neutrino mass and neutrino oscillations which come from different kinds of experiments. We focus our attention in particular on solar neutrinos, presenting a global updated phenomenological analysis of all the available data and we comment on different possible future scenarios.

  3. Increasing Interest in Cognitive Psychology Using Scenario-Based Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormack, Sophie

    2014-01-01

    Students often perceive cognitive psychology as an abstract and difficult subject with little intrinsic interest. When student feedback identified problems with the traditional essay assessment in a cognitive psychology module, action research led to the development of a forensic scenario-based assessment which successfully increased student…

  4. Second-harmonic ion cyclotron resonance heating scenarios of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... Refresher Courses · Symposia · Live Streaming. Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 85; Issue 4. Second-harmonic ion cyclotron resonance heating scenarios of Aditya tokamak plasma. Asim Kumar Chattopadhyay S V Kulkarni R Srinivasan Aditya Team. Volume 85 Issue 4 October 2015 pp 713-721 ...

  5. Improvisation of Real-Life Scenarios through Intercultural Competence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okten, Celile Eren; Griffin, Banu Ozer

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes tasks based on real-life scenarios, which triggered reflective thinking, verbalization, and writing, leading to the creation of natural dialogues rather than artificial, dull monologues. One of the main aims of this approach is to engage students in a dynamic process of both learning about multicultural participants and…

  6. Evaluation of Nuclide Release Scenarios for a Hypothetical LILW Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Jeong, Jong Tae

    2010-11-01

    A program for the safety assessment and performance evaluation of a low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste (LILW) repository system has been developed. Utilizing GoldSim (GoldSim, 2006), the program evaluates nuclide release and transport into the geosphere and biosphere under various disruptive natural and manmade events and scenarios that can occur after a waste package failure. We envisaged and illustrated these events and scenarios as occurring after the closure of a hypothetical LILW repository, and they included the degradation of various manmade barriers, pumping well drilling, and natural disruptions such as the sudden formation of a preferential flow pathway in the far-field area of the repository. Possible enhancement of nuclide transport facilitated by colloids or chelating agents is also dealt with. We used the newly-developed GoldSim template program, which is capable of various nuclide release scenarios and is greatly suited for simulating a potential repository given the geological circumstances in Korea, to create the detailed source term and near-field release scheme, various nuclide transport modes in the far-field geosphere area, and the biosphere transfer. Even though all parameter values applied to the hypothetical repository were assumed, the illustrative results, particularly the probabilistic calculations and sensitivity studies, may be informative under various scenarios

  7. Scenario tree airline fleet planning for demand uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Repko, M.G.J.; Lopes dos Santos, Bruno F.

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes an innovative multi-period modeling approach to solve the airline fleet planning problem under demand uncertainty. The problem is modeled using a scenario tree approach. The tree is composed of nodes, which represent points of decision in multiple time stages of the planning

  8. The population program shifts to 'high-scenario' targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragon-choudury, P

    1986-01-01

    The Philippine Population Program would like to achieve a replacement level of 1 daughter per childbearing woman by the year 2000 to reduce the population growth rate to 2% by 1992. Laing projected that high performance by the National Population Program would mean continued increase of sterilization prevalence at an average 1978-1983 rate. Strategies have been adopted to strengthen information-education-communication efforts, to attain higher contraceptive prevalence rates and use-effectiveness, to develop manpower, to achieve self-reliance, and to effect better program coordination, monitoring, research use. Effective service delivery will be a key to achieving the high-scenario targets. Effective use of natural family planning (NFP), will help in achieving the high-scenario goals. Apart from the heavy demand on NFP follow-up, need for prompt delivery of supplies, and lack of doctors and nurses, other factors may impede the high-scenario targets. Saniel believes that program workers should be allowed to insert IUDs and to dispense pills. Under the cost-recovery and cost-sharing schemes of the high-scenario targets, only sterilization will be done for free. It might affect the campaign for increased acceptors, but the start for self-reliance must happen now.

  9. Economic study of fuel scenarios for a reload

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz S, J. J.; Castillo M, J. A.; Montes T, J. L.; Perusquia del C, R.

    2014-10-01

    In this work the results to plan different scenarios for designing a nuclear fuel reload are shown. Given a reload with specific energy requirements, the objective is to verify the feasibility of using either a greater number of fresh fuel with less uranium enrichment, or otherwise reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies and therefore they have a higher average uranium enrichment. For the study a cycle balance 18-month basis with 112 fresh assemblies divided into two lots, with energy produced of 10,075 Mwd/Tu was used. For the designs under the mentioned scenarios, the heuristic techniques known as taboo search and neural networks were used. To verify the feasibility of obtained reloads an economic study of the reload costs was performed. The results showed that is possible to design reloads under the two scenarios, but was more complicated decrease the amount of fresh fuel assemblies. In both scenarios was possible to reduce manufacturing costs of fuel and according to purely static calculation, it would be possible to increase the energy produced. (Author)

  10. New Scenarios for Audience Response Systems in University Lectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schön, Daniel; Kopf, Stephan; Klinger, Melanie; Guthier, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    Mobile devices like smartphones and tablet PCs are widely used among university students and can be used for audience response systems (clicker systems) to improve teaching. Modern implementations of these systems are no longer limited to plain multiple-choice questions, but enable the lecturers to perform a variety of teaching scenarios. We…

  11. Energy scenario analysis Enova-IFE; Energiscenarioanalyser Enova-IFE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

    2009-11-15

    Institute for Energy Technology has made a projection of energy use in stationary sector of Norway up to 2050 and by the use of the Norwegian MARKAL model analyzed various scenarios. Total increase demand in stationary sectors by 6 TWh, or 4% to 2020 and by 29 TWh or 16% for 2050, which increase primarily comes in the buildings. Scenarios are analyzed to show the long-term potential given the various operating parameters. An important scenario that is analyzed, the fulfillment of renewable directive. In 2005, the renewable share in Norway about 61%. In the analysis it is assumed that the renewable share to be 75% as of 2020. Implementation of energy efficiency will have a crucial role to increase the renewable share, and efficiency contributes with 26 TWh in the base scenario. What percentage of energy efficiency measures are really implemented will have a great impact on how much renewable electricity to be produced, or how much more bio-energy that must be used, in order to achieve the goal of renewable directive. (AG)

  12. Observational Tests of Open Strings in Braneworld Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Freese, Katherine; Van der Schaar, J P; Freese, Katherine; Lewis, Matthew; Schaar, Jan Pieter van der

    2003-01-01

    We consider some consequences of describing the gauge and matter degrees of freedom in our universe by open strings, as suggested by the braneworld scenario. We focus on the geometric effects described by the open string metric and investigate their observational implications. The causal structure of spacetime on the brane is altered; it is described not by the usual metric $g_{\\mu\

  13. Scenario for large-scale implementation of CCS in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wildenborg, T.; Coussy, P.; Doukelis, A.; Ekström, C.; Georgiou, G.; Gkountanis, S.; Kramers, L.; Kuip, M. van der; Lindeberg, E.; Nordbø, Ø.; Serbutoviez, S.; Simonsson, D.

    2009-01-01

    In the CASTOR project funded by the EU and industry the emission reduction target for CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) was set at 30% of the CO2 emissions from power plants in Europe, which is to be achieved during the first half of this century. The developed scenario shows that this target can be

  14. Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection of Chongming Island, Shanghai, China, was performed to discuss the sustainable development of this special area. In this way, various system components including society, economy, ecology, environment and water resources system ...

  15. Second-harmonic ion cyclotron resonance heating scenarios of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Plasma heating with the fast magnetosonic waves in the ion cyclotron range of fre- quencies (ICRF) is one of the auxiliary heating schemes of Aditya tokamak. Numerical simulation of second-harmonic resonance heating scenarios in low-temperature, low-density Aditya plasma has been carried out for fast ...

  16. Search for Higgs boson in beyond standard model scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The principal physics motivation of the LHC experiments is to search for the Higgs boson and to probe the physics of TeV energy scale. Potential of discovery for Higgs bosons in various scenarios beyond standard model have been estimated for both CMS and ATLAS experiments through detailed detector simulations.

  17. Production Scenarios of Mango ( Mangifera indica L.) in Harari ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Production Scenarios of Mango ( Mangifera indica L.) in Harari Regional State, Eastern Ethiopia. ... T Bezu, K Woldetsadik, K Woldetsadik, T Tana, T Tana ... Input shortage (water, fertilizer and pesticide), lack of improved technologies, pests (especially fruit fly and anthracnose), postharvest loss and poor marketing were the ...

  18. Minimality of critical scenarios with linear logic and cutsets

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DK

    the car and avionic fields has lead to ... safety analysis of dynamic systems, feared scenarios are derived from Petri net model. Based on linear logic as new representation. (using the causality relations) of the Petri net model and proof tree. The hybrid aspect of. MS (both continuous and discrete features) leads us to choose ...

  19. Didactic Scenarios and ICT: A Good Practice Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagdilelis, Vassilios; Papadopoulos, Ioannis

    In this paper a 'good practice guide' is presented for creating Didactic Scenarios (D.S.) with the support of ICT. This guide is based on: a) empirical data collected during longitudinal training programs addressed to secondary education teachers, b) observation of the way ICT is used in both levels of education and c) modern didactical theories.

  20. Emission scenarios in the face of fossil-fuel peaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brecha, Robert J.

    2008-01-01

    Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. We propose in this paper that it is useful to look at a qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, to gain a sense of carbon emission bounds. Here we look at what may be considered a lower bound for 21st century emissions given two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by 'peak oil' adherents, and second, that no climate mitigation policies are put in place to limit emissions. If resources, and more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are more limited than posited in full energy-system models, a supply-driven emissions scenario results; however, we show that even in this 'peak fossil-fuel' limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2 C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports. (author)