WorldWideScience

Sample records for forest growth modelling

  1. Forest growth modeling in the Southern Region, National Forest System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belcher, D.M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses an attempt to combine individual tree growth models and stand level growth models currently available for the Region into one computer program. Operation of the program is explained and growth models are included

  2. Modelling mixed forest growth : a review of models for forest management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Porte, A.; Bartelink, H.H.

    2002-01-01

    Most forests today are multi-specific and heterogeneous forests (`mixed forests'). However, forest modelling has been focusing on mono-specific stands for a long time, only recently have models been developed for mixed forests. Previous reviews of mixed forest modelling were restricted to certain

  3. Forest evaporation models: Relationships between stand growth and evaporation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Le Maitre, David C

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The relationships between forest stand structure, growth and evaporation were analysed to determine whether forest evaporation can be estimated from stand growth data. This approach permits rapid assessment of the potential impacts of afforestation...

  4. Individual-Tree Diameter Growth Models for Mixed Nothofagus Second Growth Forests in Southern Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo C. Moreno

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Second growth forests of Nothofagus obliqua (roble, N. alpina (raulí, and N. dombeyi (coihue, known locally as RORACO, are among the most important native mixed forests in Chile. To improve the sustainable management of these forests, managers need adequate information and models regarding not only existing forest conditions, but their future states with varying alternative silvicultural activities. In this study, an individual-tree diameter growth model was developed for the full geographical distribution of the RORACO forest type. This was achieved by fitting a complete model by comparing two variable selection procedures: cross-validation (CV, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO regression. A small set of predictors successfully explained a large portion of the annual increment in diameter at breast height (DBH growth, particularly variables associated with competition at both the tree- and stand-level. Goodness-of-fit statistics for this final model showed an empirical coefficient of correlation (R2emp of 0.56, relative root mean square error of 44.49% and relative bias of −1.96% for annual DBH growth predictions, and R2emp of 0.98 and 0.97 for DBH projection at 6 and 12 years, respectively. This model constitutes a simple and useful tool to support management plans for these forest ecosystems.

  5. Adjusting the Stems Regional Forest Growth Model to Improve Local Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Brad Smith

    1983-01-01

    A simple procedure using double sampling is described for adjusting growth in the STEMS regional forest growth model to compensate for subregional variations. Predictive accuracy of the STEMS model (a distance-independent, individual tree growth model for Lake States forests) was improved by using this procedure

  6. Growth and yield model application in tropical rain forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    James Atta-Boateng; John W., Jr. Moser

    2000-01-01

    Analytical tools are needed to evaluate the impact of management policies on the sustainable use of rain forest. Optimal decisions concerning the level of management inputs require accurate predictions of output at all relevant input levels. Using growth data from 40 l-hectare permanent plots obtained from the semi-deciduous forest of Ghana, a system of 77 differential...

  7. DRAINMOD-FOREST: Integrated Modeling of Hydrology, Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics, and Plant Growth for Drained Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Shiying; Youssef, Mohamed A; Skaggs, R Wayne; Amatya, Devendra M; Chescheir, G M

    2012-01-01

    We present a hybrid and stand-level forest ecosystem model, DRAINMOD-FOREST, for simulating the hydrology, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics, and tree growth for drained forest lands under common silvicultural practices. The model was developed by linking DRAINMOD, the hydrological model, and DRAINMOD-N II, the soil C and N dynamics model, to a forest growth model, which was adapted mainly from the 3-PG model. The forest growth model estimates net primary production, C allocation, and litterfall using physiology-based methods regulated by air temperature, water deficit, stand age, and soil N conditions. The performance of the newly developed DRAINMOD-FOREST model was evaluated using a long-term (21-yr) data set collected from an artificially drained loblolly pine ( L.) plantation in eastern North Carolina, USA. Results indicated that the DRAINMOD-FOREST accurately predicted annual, monthly, and daily drainage, as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of 0.93, 0.87, and 0.75, respectively. The model also predicted annual net primary productivity and dynamics of leaf area index reasonably well. Predicted temporal changes in the organic matter pool on the forest floor and in forest soil were reasonable compared to published literature. Both predicted annual and monthly nitrate export were in good agreement with field measurements, as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.89 and 0.79 for annual and monthly predictions, respectively. This application of DRAINMOD-FOREST demonstrated its capability for predicting hydrology and C and N dynamics in drained forests under limited silvicultural practices. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  8. Forest Growth and Yield Models Viewed From a Different Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffery C. Goelz

    2002-01-01

    Typically, when different forms of growth and yield models are considered, they are grouped into convenient discrete classes. As a heuristic device, I chose to use a contrasting perspective, that all growth and yield models are diameter distribution models that merely differ in regard to which diameter distribution is employed and how the distribution is projected to...

  9. An individual-based growth and competition model for coastal redwood forest restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Das, Adrian J.

    2014-01-01

    Thinning treatments to accelerate coastal redwood forest stand development are in wide application, but managers have yet to identify prescriptions that might best promote Sequoia sempervirens (Lamb. ex D. Don) Endl. (redwood) growth. The creation of successful thinning prescriptions would be aided by identifying the underlying mechanisms governing how individual tree growth responds to competitive environments in coastal redwood forests. We created a spatially explicit individual-based model of tree competition and growth parameterized using surveys of upland redwood forests at Redwood National Park, California. We modeled competition for overstory trees (stems ≥ 20 cm stem diameter at breast height, 1.37 m (dbh)) as growth reductions arising from sizes, distances, and species identity of competitor trees. Our model explained up to half of the variation in individual tree growth, suggesting that neighborhood crowding is an important determinant of growth in this forest type. We used our model to simulate the effects of novel thinning prescriptions (e.g., 40% stand basal area removal) for redwood forest restoration, concluding that these treatments could lead to substantial growth releases, particularly for S. sempervirens. The results of this study, along with continued improvements to our model, will help to determine spacing and species composition that best encourage growth.

  10. Forest disturbance spurs growth of modeling and technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohrer, G.; Matheny, A. M.; Mirfenderesgi, G.; Morin, T. H.; Rey Sanchez, A. C.; Gough, C. M.; Vogel, C. S.; Nadelhoffer, K. J.; Curtis, P.

    2016-12-01

    As new opportunities for scientific exploration open, needs for data generate a drive for innovative developments of new research tools. The Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET) was enacted in 2007, continuous flux observations at the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) since 2000. FASET is a large-scale ecological experiment testing the immediate and intermediate term effects of disturbance, and eventually, the role of succession and community composition on forest flux dynamics. Decades-long tree-level observations in the UMBS forest, combined with the long term flux observations allowed us to match the bottom-up accumulated response of individual trees with the top-down whole-plot response measured from the flux tower. However, data describing tree-level canopy structure and hydrological response over an entire plot were not readily available. Unintentionally, FASET became both a motivation and a test-bed for new research tools and approaches. We expanded the operation and analysis approach for a portable canopy LiDARfor 3-D measurements meter-scale canopy structure. We matched canopy LiDAR measurements with root measurements from ground penetrating radar. To study the hydrological effects of the disturbance, we instrumented a large number of trees with Granier-style sap flux sensors. We further developed an approach to use frequency domain reflectometry sensors for continuous measurements of tree water content. We developed an approach to combine plot census, allometry and sap-flux observations in a bottom-up fashion to compare with plot-level EC transpiration rates. We found that while the transpirational water demand in the disturbance plot increased, overall evapotranspiration decreased. This decrease, however, is not uniform across species. A new individual-plant to ecosystem scale hydrodynamic model (FETCH2) demonstrates how specific traits translate to intra-daily differences in plot-level transpiration dynamics.

  11. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Irfan Ashraf

    Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence

  12. Modelling recolonization of second-growth forest stands by the north american red squirrel Tamiasciurus hudsonicus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyquist, B; Tyson, R; Larsen, K

    2007-05-01

    In this paper, we present a model for source-sink population dynamics where the locations of source and sink habitats change over time. We do this in the context of the population dynamics of the North American red squirrel, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus, within a forest environment subject to harvesting and regrowth. Harvested patches of forest are initially sinks, then eventually become source habitat again as the forest regrows. At the same time, each harvested patch is gradually recolonized by squirrels from other forest patches. We are interested in the interaction of forest harvesting dynamics with squirrel population dynamics. This depends on the harvesting schedule, and on the choices squirrels make when deciding whether to settle in a mature forest patch or in a recently harvested patch. We find that the time it takes for a second-growth forest patch to be recolonized at the mature forest level is longer than the time required for the habitat quality to be restored to the mature forest level. We also notice that recolonization pressure decreases squirrel populations in neighbouring patches. The connectivity between forest patches and the cutting schedule used also affect the time course of recolonization and steady-state population levels.

  13. Forest growth and timber quality: crown models and simulation methods for sustainable forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis P. Dykstra; Robert A. Monserud

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the international conference from which these proceedings are drawn was to explore relationships between forest management activities and timber quality. Sessions were organized to explore models and simulation methodologies that contribute to an understanding of tree development over time and the ways that management and harvesting activities can...

  14. Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Cook, Bruce D.; Weiskittel, Andrew; Woodall, Christopher W.

    2016-01-01

    Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

  15. Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

    2016-04-01

    A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

  16. Complementary models of tree species-soil relationships in old-growth temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Alison; Perakis, Steven S.

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystem level studies identify plant soil feed backs as important controls on soil nutrient availability,particularly for nitrogen and phosphorus. Although site and species specific studies of tree species soil relationships are relatively common,comparatively fewer studies consider multiple coexisting speciesin old-growth forests across a range of sites that vary underlying soil fertility. We characterized patterns in forest floor and mineral soil nutrients associated with four common tree species across eight undisturbed old-growth forests in Oregon, USA, and used two complementary conceptual models to assess tree species soil relationships. Plant soil feedbacks that could reinforce sitelevel differences in nutrient availability were assessed using the context dependent relationships model, where by relative species based differences in each soil nutrient divergedorconvergedas nutrient status changed across sites. Tree species soil relationships that did not reflect strong feedbacks were evaluated using a site independent relationships model, where by forest floor and surface mineral soil nutrient tools differed consistently by tree species across sites,without variation in deeper mineral soils. We found that theorganically cycled elements carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus exhibited context-dependent differences among species in both forest floor and mineral soil, and most of ten followed adivergence model,where by species differences were greatest at high-nutrient sites. These patterns are consistent with the oryemphasizing biotic control of these elements through plant soil feedback mechanisms. Site independent species differences were strongest for pool so if the weather able cations calcium, magnesium, potassium,as well as phosphorus, in mineral soils. Site independent species differences in forest floor nutrients we reattributable too nespecies that displayed significant greater forest floor mass accumulation. Our finding confirmed that site-independent and

  17. Low Tree-Growth Elasticity of Forest Biomass Indicated by an Individual-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robbie A. Hember

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental conditions and silviculture fundamentally alter the metabolism of individual trees and, therefore, need to be studied at that scale. However, changes in forest biomass density (Mg C ha−1 may be decoupled from changes in growth (kg C year−1 when the latter also accelerates the life cycle of trees and strains access to light, nutrients, and water. In this study, we refer to an individual-based model of forest biomass dynamics to constrain the magnitude of system feedbacks associated with ontogeny and competition and estimate the scaling relationship between changes in tree growth and forest biomass density. The model was driven by fitted equations of annual aboveground biomass growth (Gag, probability of recruitment (Pr, and probability of mortality (Pm parameterized against field observations of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill. BSP, interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Beissn. Franco, and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf. Sarg.. A hypothetical positive step-change in mean tree growth was imposed half way through the simulations and landscape-scale responses were then evaluated by comparing pre- and post-stimulus periods. Imposing a 100% increase in tree growth above calibrated predictions (i.e., contemporary rates only translated into 36% to 41% increases in forest biomass density. This corresponded with a tree-growth elasticity of forest biomass (εG,SB ranging from 0.33 to 0.55. The inelastic nature of stand biomass density was attributed to the dependence of mortality on intensity of competition and tree size, which decreased stand density by 353 to 495 trees ha−1, and decreased biomass residence time by 10 to 23 years. Values of εG,SB depended on the magnitude of the stimulus. For example, a retrospective scenario in which tree growth increased from 50% below contemporary rates up to contemporary rates indicated values of εG,SB ranging from 0.66 to 0.75. We conclude that: (1 effects of

  18. Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, Sarah J K; Hadley, Adam S; Johnson, Sherri L; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A; Betts, Matthew G

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming.

  19. Simulating Urban Growth Using a Random Forest-Cellular Automata (RF-CA Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courage Kamusoko

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable urban planning and management require reliable land change models, which can be used to improve decision making. The objective of this study was to test a random forest-cellular automata (RF-CA model, which combines random forest (RF and cellular automata (CA models. The Kappa simulation (KSimulation, figure of merit, and components of agreement and disagreement statistics were used to validate the RF-CA model. Furthermore, the RF-CA model was compared with support vector machine cellular automata (SVM-CA and logistic regression cellular automata (LR-CA models. Results show that the RF-CA model outperformed the SVM-CA and LR-CA models. The RF-CA model had a Kappa simulation (KSimulation accuracy of 0.51 (with a figure of merit statistic of 47%, while SVM-CA and LR-CA models had a KSimulation accuracy of 0.39 and −0.22 (with figure of merit statistics of 39% and 6%, respectively. Generally, the RF-CA model was relatively accurate at allocating “non-built-up to built-up” changes as reflected by the correct “non-built-up to built-up” components of agreement of 15%. The performance of the RF-CA model was attributed to the relatively accurate RF transition potential maps. Therefore, this study highlights the potential of the RF-CA model for simulating urban growth.

  20. Integrating forest growth and harvesting cost models to improve forest management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.E. Baumgras; C.B. LeDoux

    1991-01-01

    Two methods of estimating harvesting revenue--reported stumpage prices - and delivered prices minus estimated harvesting and haul costs were compared by estimating entry cash flows and rotation net present value for three simulated even-aged forest management options that included 1 to 3 thinnings over a 90 year rotation. Revenue estimates derived from stumpage prices...

  1. Assessing climate change effects on long-term forest development: adjusting growth, phenology, and seed production in a gap model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van der P.J.; Jorritsma, I.T.M.; Kramer, K.

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivity of forest development to climate change is assessed using a gap model. Process descriptions in the gap model of growth, phenology, and seed production were adjusted for climate change effects using a detailed process-based growth modeland a regression analysis. Simulation runs over

  2. Modelling forest growth and carbon storage in response to increasing CO2 and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Miko U. F.

    1999-11-01

    The response of plant growth to increasing climate change remains one of the unresolved issues in understanding the future of the terrestrial biosphere. It was investigated here by using the comprehensive forest growth model CenW 1.0.5 which integrates routines for the fluxes of carbon and water, interception of radiation and the cycling of nutrients. It was run with water and/or nutrient limitations on a background of naturally observed climate at Canberra, Australia. It was parameterised for Pinus radiata, the commercially most important plantation species in Australia. The simulations showed that under water-limited conditions, forest growth was highly sensitive to doubling CO2,with growth increases of over 50% on average and even greater increases in dry years. In contrast, when water supply was adequate, but nutrients were limiting, growth increases were smaller, with an initial increase of about 15% during the first year after CO2 was doubled. This growth increase diminished further over subsequent years so that after 20years, there was virtually no remaining effect. This diminishing response was due to developing nutrient limitations caused by extra carbon input which immobilised nutrients in the soil. When both water and nutrients were adequate, growth was increased by about 15 20% with no decrease over time. Increasing ambient temperature had a positive effect on growth under nutrient limited conditions by stimulating nitrogen mineralisation rates, but had very little effect when nutrients were non-limiting. Responses were qualitatively similar when conditions were changed gradually. In response to increasing CO2 by 2µmol mol1year1 over 50years, growth was increased by only 1% under nutrient-limited condition but by 16% under water-limited conditions. When temperature and CO2 were both changed to emulate conditions between 1950 and 2030, growth was enhanced between 5 and 15% over the 80-year period due to the effect of CO2 on photosynthesis and water

  3. The Validation of the Mixedwood Growth Model (MGM for Use in Forest Management Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Bokalo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated the Mixedwood Growth Model (MGM at a whole model scale for pure and mixed species stands of aspen and white spruce in the western boreal forest. MGM is an individual tree-based, distance-independent growth model, designed to evaluate growth and yield implications relating to the management of white spruce, black spruce, aspen, lodgepole pine, and mixedwood stands in Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Our validation compared stand-level model predictions against re-measured data (volume, basal area, diameter at breast height (DBH, average and top height and density from permanent sample plots using combined analysis of residual plots, bias statistics, efficiency and an innovative application of the equivalence test. For state variables, the model effectively simulated juvenile and mature stages of stand development for both pure and mixed species stands of aspen and white spruce in Alberta. MGM overestimates increment in older stands likely due to age-related pathology and weather-related stand damage. We identified underestimates of deciduous density and volume in Saskatchewan. MGM performs well for increment in postharvest stands less than 30 years of age. These results illustrate the comprehensive application of validation metrics to evaluate a complex model, and provide support for the use of MGM in management planning.

  4. Assessing the effects of management on forest growth across France: insights from a new functional-structural model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillemot, Joannès; Delpierre, Nicolas; Vallet, Patrick; François, Christophe; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K; Soudani, Kamel; Nicolas, Manuel; Badeau, Vincent; Dufrêne, Eric

    2014-09-01

    The structure of a forest stand, i.e. the distribution of tree size features, has strong effects on its functioning. The management of the structure is therefore an important tool in mitigating the impact of predicted changes in climate on forests, especially with respect to drought. Here, a new functional-structural model is presented and is used to assess the effects of management on forest functioning at a national scale. The stand process-based model (PBM) CASTANEA was coupled to a stand structure module (SSM) based on empirical tree-to-tree competition rules. The calibration of the SSM was based on a thorough analysis of intersite and interannual variability of competition asymmetry. The coupled CASTANEA-SSM model was evaluated across France using forest inventory data, and used to compare the effect of contrasted silvicultural practices on simulated stand carbon fluxes and growth. The asymmetry of competition varied consistently with stand productivity at both spatial and temporal scales. The modelling of the competition rules enabled efficient prediction of changes in stand structure within the CASTANEA PBM. The coupled model predicted an increase in net primary productivity (NPP) with management intensity, resulting in higher growth. This positive effect of management was found to vary at a national scale across France: the highest increases in NPP were attained in forests facing moderate to high water stress; however, the absolute effect of management on simulated stand growth remained moderate to low because stand thinning involved changes in carbon allocation at the tree scale. This modelling approach helps to identify the areas where management efforts should be concentrated in order to mitigate near-future drought impact on national forest productivity. Around a quarter of the French temperate oak and beech forests are currently in zones of high vulnerability, where management could thus mitigate the influence of climate change on forest yield.

  5. User's manual for FORAR: a stand model for composition and growth of upland forests of southern Arkansas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mielke, D. L.; Shugart, H. H.; West, D. C.

    1977-04-01

    This report is a user's manual for FORAR, a computer model simulating stand growth and composition of upland forests of south central Arkansas. The model computes: the number and biomass of each tree species, and the dbh, age, and species of each individual tree on a 1/12-ha circular plot.

  6. Developing Inventory Projection Models Using Empirical Net Forest Growth and Growing-Stock Density Relationships Across U.S. Regions and Species Group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a set of empirical net forest growth models based on forest growing-stock density relationships for three U.S. regions (North, South, and West) and two species groups (softwoods and hardwoods) at the regional aggregate level. The growth models accurately predict historical U.S. timber inventory trends when we incorporate historical timber harvests...

  7. Application of Linked Regional Scale Growth, Biogeography, and Economic Models for Southeastern United States Pine Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer A. Moore; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Robert Abt; Bryan Smith; Ge Sun; Michael Gavazzi; John Bartlett; Brian Murray; Robert A. Mickler; John D. Aber

    2000-01-01

    The southern United States produces over 50% of commercial timber harvests in the US and the demand for southern timber are likely to increase in the future. Global change is altering the physical and chemical environmental which will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth, insect and disease outbreaks, regeneration success, and distribution of...

  8. Application of linked regional scale growth, biogeography, and economic models for southeastern United States pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer A. Moore; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Robert, et al. Abt

    2000-01-01

    The southern United States produces over 50% of commercial timber harvests in the US and the demand for southern timber are likely to increase in the future. Global change is altering the physical and chemical environmental which will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth, insect and disease outbreaks, regeneration success, and distribution of...

  9. The impact of atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in Europe using two empirical modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbertin, M.; Solberg, S.; Laubhann, D.; Sterba, H.; Reinds, G. J.; de Vries, W.

    2009-04-01

    Most recent studies show increasing forest growth in central Europe, rather than a decline as was expected due to negative effects of air pollution. While nitrogen deposition, increasing temperature and change in forest management are discussed as possible causes, quantification of the various environmental factors has rarely been undertaken. In our study, we used data from several hundreds of intensive monitoring plots from the ICP Forests network in Europe, ranging from northern Finland to Spain and southern Italy. Five-year growth data for the period 1994-1999 were available from roughly 650 plots to examine the influence of environmental factors on forest growth. Evaluations focused on the influence of nitrogen, sulphur and acid deposition, temperature, precipitation and drought. Concerning the latter meteorological variables we used the deviation from the long-term (30 years) mean. The study included the main tree species common beech (Fagus sylvatica), sessile or pedunculate oak (Quercus petraea and Q. robur), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies). Two very different approaches were used. In the first approach an individual tree-based regression model was applied (Laubhahn et al., 2009), while in the second approach a stand-based model was applied (Solberg et al., 2009). The individual tree-based model had measured basal area increment of each individual tree as a growth response variable and tree size (diameter at breast height), tree competition (basal area of larger trees and stand density index), site factors (e.g. soil C/N ratio, temperature), and environmental factors (e.g. temperature change compared to long-term average, nitrogen and sulphur deposition) as influencing parameters. In the stand-growth model, stem volume increment was used as the growth response variable, after filtering out the expected growth. Expected growth was modelled as a function of site productivity, stand age and a stand density index. Relative volume

  10. Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brad Seely

    Full Text Available Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.

  11. Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seely, Brad; Welham, Clive; Scoullar, Kim

    2015-01-01

    Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.

  12. A Stand-Class Growth and Yield Model for Mexico’s Northern Temperate, Mixed and Multiaged Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Návar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to develop a stand-class growth and yield model based on the diameter growth dynamics of Pinus spp. and Quercus spp. of Mexico’s mixed temperate forests. Using a total of 2663 temporary, circular-sampling plots of 1000 m2 each, nine Weibull distribution techniques of parameter estimation were fitted to the diameter structures of pines and oaks. Statistical equations using stand attributes and the first three moments of the diameter distribution predicted and recovered the Weibull parameters. Using nearly 1200 and 100 harvested trees for pines and oaks, respectively, I developed the total height versus diameter at breast height relationship by fitting three non-linear functions. The Newnham model predicted stem taper and numerical integration was done to estimate merchantable timber volume for all trees in the stand for each diameter class. The independence of the diameter structures of pines and oaks was tested by regressing the Weibull parameters and projecting diameter structures. The model predicts diameter distributions transition from exponential (J inverse, logarithmic to well-balanced distributions with increasing mean stand diameter at breast height. Pine diameter distributions transition faster and the model predicts independent growth rates between pines and oaks. The stand-class growth and yield model must be completed with the diameter-age relationship for oaks in order to carry a full optimization procedure to find stand density and genera composition to maximize forest growth.

  13. Growth decline assessment in Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus nigra Arnold. forest by using 3-PG model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael M. Navarro-Cerrillo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study: We assessed the ability of the 3-PG process-based model to accurately predict growth of Pinus sylvestris and P. nigra plantations across a range of sites, showing declining growth trends, in southern Spain. Area of study: The study area is located in “Sierra de Los Filabres” (Almería. Material and methods: The model was modified in fifteen parameters to predict diameter (DBH, cm, basal area increment (BAI, cm2 yr-1 and leaf area index (LAI, m2 m-2 in healthy trees and trees showing declining growth. We assumed that a set of specific physiological parameters (stem partitioning ratio-pFS20, maximum litterfall rate-γFx, maximum canopy conductance-gCx, specific leaf area for mature aged stands-σ1, age at which specific leaf area = ½ (σ0 + σ1, age at full canopy cover-tc, and canopy boundary layer conductance-gB included in 3-PG would be suitable for predicting growth decline related to climate conditions. The calibrated model was evaluated using dendrochronological and LAI data obtained from plots. Main results: Observed and simulated DBH showed a high correlation (R2 > 0.99 between modelled and measured values for both species. In contrast, modelled and observed BAI showed lower correlation (R2 < 0.68. Sensitivity analysis on 3-PG outputs showed that the foliage parameters - maximum litterfall rate, maximum canopy conductance, specific leaf area for mature aged stands, age at which specific leaf area, and age at full canopy cover - were important for DBH and BAI predictions under drought stress. Research highlights: Our overall results indicated that the 3-PG model could predict growth response of pine plantations to climatic stress with desirable accuracy in southern Spain by using readily available soil and climatic data with physiological parameters derived from experiments. Keywords: Hybrid process model; forest management models; growth prediction; Pinus spp, Parameterization; forest decline.

  14. A joint individual-based model coupling growth and mortality reveals that tree vigor is a key component of tropical forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Rossi, Vivien; Boreux, Jean-Jacques; Hérault, Bruno

    2015-06-01

    Tree vigor is often used as a covariate when tree mortality is predicted from tree growth in tropical forest dynamic models, but it is rarely explicitly accounted for in a coherent modeling framework. We quantify tree vigor at the individual tree level, based on the difference between expected and observed growth. The available methods to join nonlinear tree growth and mortality processes are not commonly used by forest ecologists so that we develop an inference methodology based on an MCMC approach, allowing us to sample the parameters of the growth and mortality model according to their posterior distribution using the joint model likelihood. We apply our framework to a set of data on the 20-year dynamics of a forest in Paracou, French Guiana, taking advantage of functional trait-based growth and mortality models already developed independently. Our results showed that growth and mortality are intimately linked and that the vigor estimator is an essential predictor of mortality, highlighting that trees growing more than expected have a far lower probability of dying. Our joint model methodology is sufficiently generic to be used to join two longitudinal and punctual linked processes and thus may be applied to a wide range of growth and mortality models. In the context of global changes, such joint models are urgently needed in tropical forests to analyze, and then predict, the effects of the ongoing changes on the tree dynamics in hyperdiverse tropical forests.

  15. Some factors that will affect the next generation of forest growth models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leary, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses several types of factors that affect the form and referents of future growth models. These include philosophical, scientific, technological, educational, and organizational factors. Each factor is presented individually

  16. Forest-fire models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

    2013-01-01

    For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

  17. Reconstructing and modelling 71 years of forest growth in a Canadian boreal landscape : a test of the CBM-CFS3 carbon accounting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernier, P.Y.; Guindon, L. [Canadian Forest Service, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Laurentian Forestry Centre; Kurz, W.A.; Stinson, G. [Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, BC (Canada). Pacific Forestry Centre

    2010-01-15

    Modelled estimates have suggested that Canada's managed forests are now shifting from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon sources. This study evaluated the Canadian Forest Sector carbon budget model (CBM-CFS3). A reconstructed dataset of forest growth and disturbances encompassing a 62 km{sup 2} landscape spanning a 71 year period were used to demonstrate that the CBM-CFS3 simulations underestimated realized net biomass accrual by 10 per cent in undisturbed stands, and may also underestimate biomass accrual in disturbed stands. Results from the model were compared with mechanistic model predictions, flux-tower measurements of ecosystem carbon exchanges, and long-term observations of changes in biomass. The errors were attributed to the initial 1928 operational forest photointerpretation and inventory procedures used to determine merchantable volume and biomass. Regionally parameterized yield curves may also be contributing to errors. Results of the study suggested that long-term trends in climate or atmospheric composition may not have contributed to the bias. A similar exercise conducted in a Pacific coastal forest demonstrated a small relative impact on total carbon from forest management activities in the absence of natural disturbances. 30 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs.

  18. Exploring Old Growth Forests: A Teacher's Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemieux, Chris; Powers, Jennene; Quinby, Peter; Schultz, Caroline; Stabb, Mark

    "Exploring Old Growth Forests" is an Ontario (Canada) program that provides secondary students with hands-on experiences in old growth forests. Activity-based and student-centered, the program aims to develop student awareness of the importance of old growth forests and the need to conserve them. This manual provides teachers with…

  19. Markov and semi-Markov switching linear mixed models used to identify forest tree growth components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaubert-Pereira, Florence; Guédon, Yann; Lavergne, Christian; Trottier, Catherine

    2010-09-01

    Tree growth is assumed to be mainly the result of three components: (i) an endogenous component assumed to be structured as a succession of roughly stationary phases separated by marked change points that are asynchronous among individuals, (ii) a time-varying environmental component assumed to take the form of synchronous fluctuations among individuals, and (iii) an individual component corresponding mainly to the local environment of each tree. To identify and characterize these three components, we propose to use semi-Markov switching linear mixed models, i.e., models that combine linear mixed models in a semi-Markovian manner. The underlying semi-Markov chain represents the succession of growth phases and their lengths (endogenous component) whereas the linear mixed models attached to each state of the underlying semi-Markov chain represent-in the corresponding growth phase-both the influence of time-varying climatic covariates (environmental component) as fixed effects, and interindividual heterogeneity (individual component) as random effects. In this article, we address the estimation of Markov and semi-Markov switching linear mixed models in a general framework. We propose a Monte Carlo expectation-maximization like algorithm whose iterations decompose into three steps: (i) sampling of state sequences given random effects, (ii) prediction of random effects given state sequences, and (iii) maximization. The proposed statistical modeling approach is illustrated by the analysis of successive annual shoots along Corsican pine trunks influenced by climatic covariates. © 2009, The International Biometric Society.

  20. Comparison of an empirical forest growth and yield simulator and a forest gap simulator using actual 30-year growth from two even-aged forests in Kentucky

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel A. Yaussy

    2000-01-01

    Two individual-tree growth simulators are used to predict the growth and mortality on a 30-year-old forest site and an 80-year-old forest site in eastern Kentucky. The empirical growth and yield model (NE-TWIGS) was developed to simulate short-term (

  1. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  2. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

    2017-06-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  3. A likelihood-based time series modeling approach for application in dendrochronology to examine the growth-climate relations and forest disturbance history

    Science.gov (United States)

    A time series intervention analysis (TSIA) of dendrochronological data to infer the tree growth-climate-disturbance relations and forest disturbance history is described. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters of a structural time series model with components for ...

  4. Monitoring small pioneer trees in the forest-tundra ecotone: using multi-temporal airborne laser scanning data to model height growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauglin, Marius; Bollandsås, Ole Martin; Gobakken, Terje; Næsset, Erik

    2017-12-08

    Monitoring of forest resources through national forest inventory programmes is carried out in many countries. The expected climate changes will affect trees and forests and might cause an expansion of trees into presently treeless areas, such as above the current alpine tree line. It is therefore a need to develop methods that enable the inclusion of also these areas into monitoring programmes. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) is an established tool in operational forest inventories, and could be a viable option for monitoring tasks. In the present study, we used multi-temporal ALS data with point density of 8-15 points per m 2 , together with field measurements from single trees in the forest-tundra ecotone along a 1500-km-long transect in Norway. The material comprised 262 small trees with an average height of 1.78 m. The field-measured height growth was derived from height measurements at two points in time. The elapsed time between the two measurements was 4 years. Regression models were then used to model the relationship between ALS-derived variables and tree heights as well as the height growth. Strong relationships between ALS-derived variables and tree heights were found, with R 2 values of 0.93 and 0.97 for the two points in time. The relationship between the ALS data and the field-derived height growth was weaker, with R 2 values of 0.36-0.42. A cross-validation gave corresponding results, with root mean square errors of 19 and 11% for the ALS height models and 60% for the model relating ALS data to single-tree height growth.

  5. The Net Carbon Flux due to Deforestation and Forest Re-Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: Analysis using a Process-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, A. I.; Little, W. S.; Houghton, R. A.; Scott, N. A.; White, J. D.

    2004-01-01

    We developed a process-based model of forest growth, carbon cycling, and land cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (non-flooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study of the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging, and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re-growth over the period from 1970-1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of approx. 0.35 PgC/yr (1PgC = 1 x 10(exp I5) gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of approx. 7 PgC from 1970- 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989-1 998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared to the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by approx. 1 PgC from 1970-1998, while different assumptions about land cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte-Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).

  6. Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process-based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear-edges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Gutiérrez, Emilia; González Rouco, Fidel; Gazol, Antonio; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Linares, Juan Carlos; Seftigen, Kristina

    2017-07-01

    Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought-prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear-edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear-edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree-ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite growth model and climate-growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO 2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear-edge. By contrast, growth of high-elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of -10.7% and -16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear-edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear-edge stands. Our modeling

  7. Updating older forest inventory data with a growth model and satellite records to improve the responsiveness and currency of national carbon monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healey, S. P.; Zhao, F. R.; McCarter, J. B.; Frescino, T.; Goeking, S.

    2017-12-01

    International reporting of American forest carbon trends depends upon the Forest Service's nationally consistent network of inventory plots. Plots are measured on a rolling basis over a 5- to 10-year cycle, so estimates related to any variable, including carbon storage, reflect conditions over a 5- to 10-year window. This makes it difficult to identify the carbon impact of discrete events (e.g., a bad fire year; extraction rates related to home-building trends), particularly if the events are recent.We report an approach to make inventory estimates more sensitive to discrete and recent events. We use a growth model (the Forest Vegetation Simulator - FVS) that is maintained by the Forest Service to annually update the tree list for every plot, allowing all plots to contribute to a series of single-year estimates. Satellite imagery from the Landsat platform guides the FVS simulations by providing information about which plots have been disturbed, which are recovering from disturbance, and which are undergoing undisturbed growth. The FVS model is only used to "update" plot tree lists until the next field measurement is made (maximum of 9 years). As a result, predicted changes are usually small and error rates are low. We present a pilot study of this system in Idaho, which has experienced several major fire events in the last decade. Empirical estimates of uncertainty, accounting for both plot sampling error and FVS model error, suggest that this approach greatly increases temporal specificity and sensitivity to discrete events without sacrificing much estimate precision at the level of a US state. This approach has the potential to take better advantage of the Forest Service's rolling plot measurement schedule to report carbon storage in the US, and it offers the basis of a system that might allow near-term, forward-looking analysis of the effects of hypothetical forest disturbance patterns.

  8. An imputation/copula-based stochastic individual tree growth model for mixed species Acadian forests: a case study using the Nova Scotia permanent sample plot network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A. KershawJr

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background A novel approach to modelling individual tree growth dynamics is proposed. The approach combines multiple imputation and copula sampling to produce a stochastic individual tree growth and yield projection system. Methods The Nova Scotia, Canada permanent sample plot network is used as a case study to develop and test the modelling approach. Predictions from this model are compared to predictions from the Acadian variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, a widely used statistical individual tree growth and yield model. Results Diameter and height growth rates were predicted with error rates consistent with those produced using statistical models. Mortality and ingrowth error rates were higher than those observed for diameter and height, but also were within the bounds produced by traditional approaches for predicting these rates. Ingrowth species composition was very poorly predicted. The model was capable of reproducing a wide range of stand dynamic trajectories and in some cases reproduced trajectories that the statistical model was incapable of reproducing. Conclusions The model has potential to be used as a benchmarking tool for evaluating statistical and process models and may provide a mechanism to separate signal from noise and improve our ability to analyze and learn from large regional datasets that often have underlying flaws in sample design.

  9. The relative contributions of forest growth and areal expansion to forest biomass carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. Li; J. Zhu; H. Hu; Z. Guo; Y. Pan; R. Birdsey; J. Fang

    2016-01-01

    Forests play a leading role in regional and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycles. Changes in C sequestration within forests can be attributed to areal expansion (increase in forest area) and forest growth (increase in biomass density). Detailed assessment of the relative contributions of areal expansion and forest growth to C sinks is crucial to reveal the mechanisms...

  10. Measured and modeled evidence for a two-fold increase in water use efficiency at an old-growth forest site in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Y.; Rastogi, B.; Kim, J. B.; Voelker, S.; Meinzer, F. C.; Still, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Water use efficiency (WUE), the ratio of carbon uptake to transpiration, has been widely recognized as an important measure of carbon and water cycling in plants, and is used to track forest ecosystem responses to climate change and rising atmospheric CO2concentrations. In this study we used eddy covariance measurement data and Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) simulations to explore the patterns and physiological and biophysical controls of WUE at Wind River Experimental Forest, an old-growth coniferous forest in the Pacific Northwest. We characterized how observed and simulated WUE vary between wet and dry years, and explored the drivers of the differences in WUE between the wet and dry years. Through this explorative process, we evaluated the utility of various ways that WUE have been computed in literature. Measurement-based and simulated WUE at the old-growth forest increased over twofold from 1998 to 2015. The primary driver of this trend is a decreasing trend in evapotranspiration (ET). There were significant inter-annual variations. For example, during drought years, higher air temperature drove increases in early season ET, thereby depleting soil water and decreasing GPP. Lower GPP in turn resulted in lower WUE. This mechanism might drive changes in future carbon and water budgets under warming climate. Our evaluation of multiple WUE metrics demonstrates that each metric has a distinct sensitivity to climate anomalies, but also indicates a robust increasing trend of WUE. Statistical (multiple linear regression) and machine learning (Random Forest) analyses of flux measurements indicated that atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature and radiation were the most important predictors of WUE at monthly, daily and half-hourly time scale, respectively. In contrast, WUE mechanism was stable across all time scales in ED2 simulations: vapor pressure deficit was consistently the most important predictor of WUE at the monthly, daily and half-hourly time scales.

  11. Information system of forest growth and productivity by site quality type and elements of forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khlyustov, V.

    2012-04-01

    Information system of forest growth and productivity by site quality type and elements of forest V.K. Khlustov Head of the Forestry Department of Russian State Agrarian University named after K.A.Timiryazev doctor of agricultural sciences, professor The efficiency of forest management can be improved substantially by development and introduction of principally new models of forest growth and productivity dynamics based on regionalized site specific parameters. Therefore an innovative information system was developed. It describes the current state and gives a forecast for forest stand parameters: growth, structure, commercial and biological productivity depend on type of site quality. In contrast to existing yield tables, the new system has environmental basis: site quality type. The information system contains set of multivariate statistical models and can work at the level of individual trees or at the stand level. The system provides a graphical visualization, as well as export of the emulation results. The System is able to calculate detailed description of any forest stand based on five initial indicators: site quality type, site index, stocking, composition, and tree age by elements of the forest. The results of the model run are following parameters: average diameter and height, top height, number of trees, basal area, growing stock (total, commercial with distribution by size, firewood and residuals), live biomass (stem, bark, branches, foliage). The system also provides the distribution of mentioned above forest stand parameters by tree diameter classes. To predict the future forest stand dynamics the system require in addition the time slot only. Full set of forest parameters mention above will be provided by the System. The most conservative initial parameters (site quality type and site index) can be kept in the form of geo referenced polygons. In this case the system would need only 3 dynamic initial parameters (stocking, composition and age) to

  12. Modelling growth-competition relationships in trembling aspen and white spruce mixed boreal forests of Western Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jian-Guo; Stadt, Kenneth J; Dawson, Andria; Comeau, Philip G

    2013-01-01

    We examined the effect of competition on stem growth of Picea glauca and Populus tremuloides in boreal mixedwood stands during the stem exclusion stage. We combined traditional approaches of collecting competition data with dendrochronology to provide retrospective measurements of stem diameter growth. Several competition indices including stand basal area (BA), the sum of stem diameter at breast height (SDBH), and density (N) for the broadleaf and coniferous species, as well as similar indices considering only trees with diameters greater than each subject (BAGR, SDBHGR, and NGR), were evaluated. We used a nonlinear mixed model to characterize the basal area increment over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 years as a function of growth of nearby dominant trees, the size of the subject trees, deciduous and coniferous competition indices, and ecoregions. SDBHGR and BAGR were better predictors for spruce, and SDBHGR and NGR were better for aspen, respectively, than other indices. Results showed strongest correlations with long-term stem growth, as the best models integrated growth for 10-25 years for aspen and ≥ 25 for spruce. Our model demonstrated a remarkable capability (adjusted R(2)>0.67) to represent this complex variation in growth as a function of site, size and competition.

  13. Modelling growth-competition relationships in trembling aspen and white spruce mixed boreal forests of Western Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Guo Huang

    Full Text Available We examined the effect of competition on stem growth of Picea glauca and Populus tremuloides in boreal mixedwood stands during the stem exclusion stage. We combined traditional approaches of collecting competition data with dendrochronology to provide retrospective measurements of stem diameter growth. Several competition indices including stand basal area (BA, the sum of stem diameter at breast height (SDBH, and density (N for the broadleaf and coniferous species, as well as similar indices considering only trees with diameters greater than each subject (BAGR, SDBHGR, and NGR, were evaluated. We used a nonlinear mixed model to characterize the basal area increment over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 years as a function of growth of nearby dominant trees, the size of the subject trees, deciduous and coniferous competition indices, and ecoregions. SDBHGR and BAGR were better predictors for spruce, and SDBHGR and NGR were better for aspen, respectively, than other indices. Results showed strongest correlations with long-term stem growth, as the best models integrated growth for 10-25 years for aspen and ≥ 25 for spruce. Our model demonstrated a remarkable capability (adjusted R(2>0.67 to represent this complex variation in growth as a function of site, size and competition.

  14. Growth decline assessment in Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus nigra Arnold. forest by using 3-PG model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M.; Beira, J.; Suarez, J.; Xenakis, G.; Sánchez-Salguero, R.; Hernández-Clemente, R.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: We assessed the ability of the 3-PG process-based model to accurately predict growth of Pinus sylvestris and P. nigra plantations across a range of sites, showing declining growth trends, in southern Spain. Area of study: The study area is located in “Sierra de Los Filabres” (Almería). Material and methods: The model was modified in fifteen parameters to predict diameter (DBH, cm), basal area increment (BAI, cm2 yr-1) and leaf area index (LAI, m2 m-2) in healthy trees and trees showing declining growth. We assumed that a set of specific physiological parameters (stem partitioning ratio-pFS20, maximum litterfall rate-γFx, maximum canopy conductance-gCx, specific leaf area for mature aged stands-σ1, age at which specific leaf area = ½ (σ0 + σ1), age at full canopy cover-tc, and canopy boundary layer conductance-gB) included in 3-PG would be suitable for predicting growth decline related to climate conditions. The calibrated model was evaluated using dendrochronological and LAI data obtained from plots. Main results: Observed and simulated DBH showed a high correlation (R2 > 0.99) between modelled and measured values for both species. In contrast, modelled and observed BAI showed lower correlation (R2 < 0.68). Sensitivity analysis on 3-PG outputs showed that the foliage parameters - maximum litterfall rate, maximum canopy conductance, specific leaf area for mature aged stands, age at which specific leaf area, and age at full canopy cover - were important for DBH and BAI predictions under drought stress. Research highlights: Our overall results indicated that the 3-PG model could predict growth response of pine plantations to climatic stress with desirable accuracy in southern Spain by using readily available soil and climatic data with physiological parameters derived from experiments. (Author)

  15. Internal equilibrium layer growth over forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dellwik, E.; Jensen, N.O.

    2000-01-01

    the magnitude of the scatter. Different theoretical friction velocity profiles for the Internal Boundary Layer (IBL) are tested against the forest data. The results yield information on the Internal Equilibrium Layer (IEL) growth and an equation for the IEL height fur neutral conditions is derived. For stable...... conditions the results indicate that very long fetches are required in order to measure parameters in equilibrium with the actual surface....

  16. Stand model for upland forests of Southern Arkansas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mielke, D.L.; Shugart, H.H.; West, D.C.

    1978-06-01

    A forest stand growth and composition simulator (FORAR) was developed by modifying a stand growth model by Shugart and West (1977). FORAR is a functional stand model which used ecological parameters to relate individual tree growth to environment rather than using Markov probability matrices or differential equations to determine single tree or species replacement rates. FORAR simulated tree growth and species composition of upland forests of Union County, Ark., by considering 33 tree species on a /sup 1///sub 12/ ha circular plot.

  17. The effect of size and competition on tree growth rate in old-growth coniferous forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Adrian

    2012-01-01

    Tree growth and competition play central roles in forest dynamics. Yet models of competition often neglect important variation in species-specific responses. Furthermore, functions used to model changes in growth rate with size do not always allow for potential complexity. Using a large data set from old-growth forests in California, models were parameterized relating growth rate to tree size and competition for four common species. Several functions relating growth rate to size were tested. Competition models included parameters for tree size, competitor size, and competitor distance. Competitive strength was allowed to vary by species. The best ranked models (using Akaike’s information criterion) explained between 18% and 40% of the variance in growth rate, with each species showing a strong response to competition. Models indicated that relationships between competition and growth varied substantially among species. The results also suggested that the relationship between growth rate and tree size can be complex and that how we model it can affect not only our ability to detect that complexity but also whether we obtain misleading results. In this case, for three of four species, the best model captured an apparent and unexpected decline in potential growth rate for the smallest trees in the data set.

  18. Seed Dispersal, Microsites or Competition—What Drives Gap Regeneration in an Old-Growth Forest? An Application of Spatial Point Process Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georg Gratzer

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The spatial structure of trees is a template for forest dynamics and the outcome of a variety of processes in ecosystems. Identifying the contribution and magnitude of the different drivers is an age-old task in plant ecology. Recently, the modelling of a spatial point process was used to identify factors driving the spatial distribution of trees at stand scales. Processes driving the coexistence of trees, however, frequently unfold within gaps and questions on the role of resource heterogeneity within-gaps have become central issues in community ecology. We tested the applicability of a spatial point process modelling approach for quantifying the effects of seed dispersal, within gap light environment, microsite heterogeneity, and competition on the generation of within gap spatial structure of small tree seedlings in a temperate, old growth, mixed-species forest. By fitting a non-homogeneous Neyman–Scott point process model, we could disentangle the role of seed dispersal from niche partitioning for within gap tree establishment and did not detect seed densities as a factor explaining the clustering of small trees. We found only a very weak indication for partitioning of within gap light among the three species and detected a clear niche segregation of Picea abies (L. Karst. on nurse logs. The other two dominating species, Abies alba Mill. and Fagus sylvatica L., did not show signs of within gap segregation.

  19. Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

    2014-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

  20. Biodiversity promotes tree growth during succession in subtropical forest.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Barrufol

    Full Text Available Losses of plant species diversity can affect ecosystem functioning, with decreased primary productivity being the most frequently reported effect in experimental plant assemblages, including tree plantations. Less is known about the role of biodiversity in natural ecosystems, including forests, despite their importance for global biogeochemical cycling and climate. In general, experimental manipulations of tree diversity will take decades to yield final results. To date, biodiversity effects in natural forests therefore have only been reported from sample surveys or meta-analyses with plots not initially selected for diversity. We studied biomass and growth of subtropical forests stands in southeastern China. Taking advantage of variation in species recruitment during secondary succession, we adopted a comparative study design selecting forest plots to span a gradient in species richness. We repeatedly censored the stem diameter of two tree size cohorts, comprising 93 species belonging to 57 genera and 33 families. Tree size and growth were analyzed in dependence of species richness, the functional diversity of growth-related traits, and phylogenetic diversity, using both general linear and structural equation modeling. Successional age covaried with diversity, but differently so in the two size cohorts. Plot-level stem basal area and growth were positively related with species richness, while growth was negatively related to successional age. The productivity increase in species-rich, functionally and phylogenetically diverse plots was driven by both larger mean sizes and larger numbers of trees. The biodiversity effects we report exceed those from experimental studies, sample surveys and meta-analyses, suggesting that subtropical tree diversity is an important driver of forest productivity and re-growth after disturbance that supports the provision of ecological services by these ecosystems.

  1. Diameter growth performance of tree functional groups in Puerto Rican secondary tropical forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Adame

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Understanding the factors that control tree growth in successional stands is particularly important for quantifying the carbon sequestration potential and timber yield of secondary tropical forests. Understanding the factors that control tree growth in successional stands is particularly important for quantifying the carbon sequestration potential and timber yield of secondary tropical forests. Yet, the high species diversity of mixed tropical forests, including many uncommon species, hinders the development of species-specific diameter growth models.Area of study: In these analyses, we grouped 82 species from secondary forests distributed across 93 permanent plots on the island of Puerto Rico.Material and Methods: Species were classified according to regeneration strategy and adult height into six functional groups. This classification allowed us to develop a robust diameter growth model using growth data collected from 1980-1990. We used mixed linear model regression to analyze tree diameter growth as a function of individual tree characteristics, stand structure, functional group and site factors.Main results: The proportion of variance in diameter growth explained by the model was 15.1%, ranging from 7.9 to 21.7%. Diameter at breast height, stem density and functional group were the most important predictors of tree growth in Puerto Rican secondary forest. Site factors such as soil and topography failed to predict diameter growth.Keywords: Caribbean forests; growth model; tropical forest succession; Puerto Rico.

  2. An integrated model of environmental effects on growth, carbohydrate balance, and mortality of Pinus ponderosa forests in the southern Rocky Mountains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina L Tague

    Full Text Available Climate-induced tree mortality is an increasing concern for forest managers around the world. We used a coupled hydrologic and ecosystem carbon cycling model to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on productivity and survival of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa. Model predictions were evaluated using observations of productivity and survival for three ponderosa pine stands located across an 800 m elevation gradient in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, during a 10-year period that ended in a severe drought and extensive tree mortality at the lowest elevation site. We demonstrate the utility of a relatively simple representation of declines in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC as an approach for estimating patterns of ponderosa pine vulnerability to drought and the likelihood of survival along an elevation gradient. We assess the sensitivity of simulated net primary production, NSC storage dynamics, and mortality to site climate and soil characteristics as well as uncertainty in the allocation of carbon to the NSC pool. For a fairly wide set of assumptions, the model estimates captured elevational gradients and temporal patterns in growth and biomass. Model results that best predict mortality risk also yield productivity, leaf area, and biomass estimates that are qualitatively consistent with observations across the sites. Using this constrained set of parameters, we found that productivity and likelihood of survival were equally dependent on elevation-driven variation in temperature and precipitation. Our results demonstrate the potential for a coupled hydrology-ecosystem carbon cycling model that includes a simple model of NSC dynamics to predict drought-related mortality. Given that increases in temperature and in the frequency and severity of drought are predicted for a broad range of ponderosa pine and other western North America conifer forest habitats, the model potentially has broad utility for assessing ecosystem vulnerabilities.

  3. An integrated model of environmental effects on growth, carbohydrate balance, and mortality of Pinus ponderosa forests in the southern Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tague, Christina L.; McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2013-01-01

    Climate-induced tree mortality is an increasing concern for forest managers around the world. We used a coupled hydrologic and ecosystem carbon cycling model to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on productivity and survival of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Model predictions were evaluated using observations of productivity and survival for three ponderosa pine stands located across an 800 m elevation gradient in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, during a 10-year period that ended in a severe drought and extensive tree mortality at the lowest elevation site. We demonstrate the utility of a relatively simple representation of declines in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) as an approach for estimating patterns of ponderosa pine vulnerability to drought and the likelihood of survival along an elevation gradient. We assess the sensitivity of simulated net primary production, NSC storage dynamics, and mortality to site climate and soil characteristics as well as uncertainty in the allocation of carbon to the NSC pool. For a fairly wide set of assumptions, the model estimates captured elevational gradients and temporal patterns in growth and biomass. Model results that best predict mortality risk also yield productivity, leaf area, and biomass estimates that are qualitatively consistent with observations across the sites. Using this constrained set of parameters, we found that productivity and likelihood of survival were equally dependent on elevation-driven variation in temperature and precipitation. Our results demonstrate the potential for a coupled hydrology-ecosystem carbon cycling model that includes a simple model of NSC dynamics to predict drought-related mortality. Given that increases in temperature and in the frequency and severity of drought are predicted for a broad range of ponderosa pine and other western North America conifer forest habitats, the model potentially has broad utility for assessing ecosystem vulnerabilities.

  4. An integrated model of environmental effects on growth, carbohydrate balance, and mortality of Pinus ponderosa forests in the southern Rocky Mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tague, Christina L; McDowell, Nathan G; Allen, Craig D

    2013-01-01

    Climate-induced tree mortality is an increasing concern for forest managers around the world. We used a coupled hydrologic and ecosystem carbon cycling model to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on productivity and survival of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Model predictions were evaluated using observations of productivity and survival for three ponderosa pine stands located across an 800 m elevation gradient in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, during a 10-year period that ended in a severe drought and extensive tree mortality at the lowest elevation site. We demonstrate the utility of a relatively simple representation of declines in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) as an approach for estimating patterns of ponderosa pine vulnerability to drought and the likelihood of survival along an elevation gradient. We assess the sensitivity of simulated net primary production, NSC storage dynamics, and mortality to site climate and soil characteristics as well as uncertainty in the allocation of carbon to the NSC pool. For a fairly wide set of assumptions, the model estimates captured elevational gradients and temporal patterns in growth and biomass. Model results that best predict mortality risk also yield productivity, leaf area, and biomass estimates that are qualitatively consistent with observations across the sites. Using this constrained set of parameters, we found that productivity and likelihood of survival were equally dependent on elevation-driven variation in temperature and precipitation. Our results demonstrate the potential for a coupled hydrology-ecosystem carbon cycling model that includes a simple model of NSC dynamics to predict drought-related mortality. Given that increases in temperature and in the frequency and severity of drought are predicted for a broad range of ponderosa pine and other western North America conifer forest habitats, the model potentially has broad utility for assessing ecosystem vulnerabilities.

  5. Modeling climate and fuel reduction impacts on mixed-conifer forest carbon stocks in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew D. Hurteau; Timothy A. Robards; Donald Stevens; David Saah; Malcolm North; George W. Koch

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the impacts of changing climatic conditions on forest growth is integral to estimating future forest carbon balance. We used a growth-and-yield model, modified for climate sensitivity, to quantify the effects of altered climate on mixed-conifer forest growth in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Estimates of forest growth and live tree carbon stocks were...

  6. Influence of competition and age on tree growth in structurally complex old-growth forests in northern Minnesota, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuomas Aakala; Shawn Fraver; Anthony W. D' Amato; Brian J. Palik

    2013-01-01

    Factors influencing tree growth in structurally complex forests remain poorly understood. Here we assessed the influence of competition on Pinus resinosa (n = 224) and Pinus strobus (n = 90) growth in four old-growth stands in Minnesota, using mixed effects models. A subset of trees, with...

  7. Slavic Forest, Norwegian Wood (models)

    OpenAIRE

    Rosa, Rudolf; Žabokrtský, Zdeněk; Zeman, Daniel; Mareček, David

    2017-01-01

    Trained models for UDPipe used to produce our final submission to VarDial 2017 shared task (https://bitbucket.org/hy-crossNLP/vardial2017) and described in a paper by the same authors titled Slavic Forest, Norwegian Wood.

  8. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-11-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  9. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-01-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  10. Forest-management modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Twery; Aaron R. Weiskittel

    2013-01-01

    Forests are complex and dynamic ecosystems comprising individual trees that can vary in both size and species. In comparison to other organisms, trees are relatively long lived (40-2000 years), quite plastic in terms of their morphology and ecological niche, and adapted to a wide variety of habitats, which can make predicting their behaviour exceedingly difficult....

  11. Old-growth forests as global carbon sinks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luyssaert, S; Schulze, E.D.; Börner, A.

    2008-01-01

    Old- growth forests remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere(1,2) at rates that vary with climate and nitrogen deposition(3). The sequestered carbon dioxide is stored in live woody tissues and slowly decomposing organic matter in litter and soil(4). Old- growth forests therefore serve as a global

  12. An Old-Growth Definition for Southern Mixed Hardwood Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    William B. Batista; William J. Platt

    1997-01-01

    This report provides an old-growth definition for the southern mixed hardwood forests based on five exemplary stands that show no evidence of having undergone any natural catastrophe or clearcutting for at least 200 years. This forest type occurs in the U.S. southeastern Coastal Plain from the Carolinas to eastern Texas. The exemplary old-growth stands were restricted...

  13. Comparison of growth response to thinning in oak forests managed as coppice with standards and high forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautam, S.; Hasenauer, H.; Pietsch, S. A.

    2009-04-01

    The BIOME-BGC model integrates the main physical, biological and physiological processes based on current understanding of ecophysiology to assess forest ecosystem dynamics. This study evaluates the application of the model to assess the thinning effects on coppiced oak forests in Austria. We analyze the growth response, i.e. growth efficiency (GE), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), water use efficiency (WUE) and radiation use efficiency (RUE) of oak forests to thinning. The results of coppice with standards and high forests simulations are analysed for differences in simulated growth response after thinning. The forest field data of the year 2006 and the respective model runs are used to evaluate model application. Strong positive relationship (r2 = 0.90) with unbiased results and statistically insignificant differences between predicted and observed volume allows the use of the model as a diagnostic tool to assess management effects. Results indicate that the coppice with standards exhibits a significantly higher yield by 2.97% (i.e. 10 cubic meters per hectare in one rotation), a higher harvest (49.9%) but a lower growing stock (19.69%) than the high forests. The higher growing stock and the lower extraction in the high forests confirm that the high forest sequestrates significantly more carbon than the coppice with standards. Results show that thinning leads to an increase in the GE, the NUE and the WUE, and to a decrease in the RUE. Although the coppice with standards forest ecosystem exhibits higher values in all studied growth parameters, only the difference in the NUE was statistically significant. This verifies that the difference in the yield between the coppice with standards and the high forests is mainly governed by the NUE difference in stands after thinning. The coppice with standards system produces an equal amount of net primary production while consuming significantly less nitrogen (16%) compared to the high forest system. In the coppice with

  14. Simulation of forest growth, applied to douglas fir stands in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohren, G.M.J.

    1987-01-01

    Forest growth in relation to weather and soils is studied using a physiological simulation model. Growth potential depends on physiological characteristics of the plant species in combination with ambient weather conditions (mainly temperature and incoming radiation). For a given site, growth may be

  15. Modeling population dynamics and woody biomass of Alaska coastal forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randy L. Peterson; Jingjing Liang; Tara M. Barrett

    2014-01-01

    Alaska coastal forest, 6.2 million ha in size, has been managed in the past mainly through clearcutting. Declining harvest and dwindling commercial forest resources over the past 2 decades have led to increased interest in management of young-growth stands and utilization of woody biomass for bioenergy. However, existing models to support these new management systems...

  16. Growth and yield of all-aged Douglas-fir -- western hemlock forest stands: a matrix model with stand diversity effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jingjing Liang; Joseph Buonglorno; Robert A. Monserud

    2005-01-01

    A density-dependent matrix model was developed for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) -- western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) forest stands in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The model predicted the number and volume of trees for 4 species groups and 19 diameter classes. The parameters...

  17. Urban tree growth modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Gregory McPherson; Paula J. Peper

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes three long-term tree growth studies conducted to evaluate tree performance because repeated measurements of the same trees produce critical data for growth model calibration and validation. Several empirical and process-based approaches to modeling tree growth are reviewed. Modeling is more advanced in the fields of forestry and...

  18. Grow--a computer subroutine that projects the growth of trees in the Lake States' forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary J. Brand

    1981-01-01

    A computer subroutine, Grow, has been written in 1977 Standard FORTRAN to implement a distance-independent, individual tree growth model for Lake States' forests. Grow is a small and easy-to-use version of the growth model. All the user has to do is write a calling program to read initial conditions, call Grow, and summarize the results.

  19. Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie A Harsch

    Full Text Available Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5 with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C, dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm. Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

  20. Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

    2014-01-01

    Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

  1. Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

    2014-01-01

    Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

  2. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K

    2016-09-01

    Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  3. Old-growth forests can accumulate carbon in soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, G.; Liu, S.; Li, Z.; Zhang, Dongxiao; Tang, X.; Zhou, C.; Yan, J.; Mo, J.

    2006-01-01

    Old-growth forests have traditionally been considered negligible as carbon sinks because carbon uptake has been thought to be balanced by respiration. We show that the top 20-centimeter soil layer in preserved old-growth forests in southern China accumulated atmospheric carbon at an unexpectedly high average rate of 0.61 megagrams of carbon hectare-1 year-1 from 1979 to 2003. This study suggests that the carbon cycle processes in the belowground system of these forests are changing in response to the changing environment. The result directly challenges the prevailing belief in ecosystem ecology regarding carbon budget in old-growth forests and supports the establishment of a new, nonequilibrium conceptual framework to study soil carbon dynamics.

  4. Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Adrian; Battles, John; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2008-01-01

    For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots.In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity.Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial

  5. Stand-level growth and yield component models for red oak-sweetgum forests on Mid-South minor stream bottoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emily B. Schultz; J. Clint Iles; Thomas G. Matney; Andrew W. Ezell; James S. Meadows; Theodor D. Leininger; al. et.

    2010-01-01

    Greater emphasis is being placed on Southern bottomland hardwood management, but relatively few growth and yield prediction systems exist that are based on sufficient measurements. We present the aggregate stand-level expected yield and structural component equations for a red oak (Quercus section Lobatae)-sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua L.) growth and yield model....

  6. A Forest Tent Caterpillar Outbreak Increased Resource Levels and Seedling Growth in a Northern Hardwood Forest.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danaë M A Rozendaal

    Full Text Available In closed-canopy forests, gap formation and closure are thought to be major drivers of forest dynamics. Crown defoliation by insects, however, may also influence understory resource levels and thus forest dynamics. We evaluate the effect of a forest tent caterpillar outbreak on understory light availability, soil nutrient levels and tree seedling height growth in six sites with contrasting levels of canopy defoliation in a hardwood forest in northern lower Michigan. We compared resource levels and seedling growth of six hardwood species before, during and in the three years after the outbreak (2008-2012. Canopy openness increased strongly during the forest tent caterpillar outbreak in the four moderately and severely defoliated sites, but not in lightly defoliated sites. Total inorganic soil nitrogen concentrations increased in response to the outbreak in moderately and severely defoliated sites. The increase in total inorganic soil nitrogen was driven by a strong increase in soil nitrate, and tended to become stronger with increasing site defoliation. Seedling height growth increased for all species in the moderately and severely defoliated sites, but not in lightly defoliated sites, either during the outbreak year or in the year after the outbreak. Growth increases did not become stronger with increasing site defoliation, but were strongest in a moderately defoliated site with high soil nutrient levels. Growth increases tended to be strongest for the shade intolerant species Fraxinus americana and Prunus serotina, and the shade tolerant species Ostrya virginiana. The strong growth response of F. americana and P. serotina suggests that recurring forest tent caterpillar outbreaks may facilitate the persistence of shade intolerant species in the understory in the absence of canopy gaps. Overall, our results suggest that recurrent canopy defoliation resulting from cyclical forest insect outbreaks may be an additional driver of dynamics in

  7. A Forest Tent Caterpillar Outbreak Increased Resource Levels and Seedling Growth in a Northern Hardwood Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozendaal, Danaë M A; Kobe, Richard K

    2016-01-01

    In closed-canopy forests, gap formation and closure are thought to be major drivers of forest dynamics. Crown defoliation by insects, however, may also influence understory resource levels and thus forest dynamics. We evaluate the effect of a forest tent caterpillar outbreak on understory light availability, soil nutrient levels and tree seedling height growth in six sites with contrasting levels of canopy defoliation in a hardwood forest in northern lower Michigan. We compared resource levels and seedling growth of six hardwood species before, during and in the three years after the outbreak (2008-2012). Canopy openness increased strongly during the forest tent caterpillar outbreak in the four moderately and severely defoliated sites, but not in lightly defoliated sites. Total inorganic soil nitrogen concentrations increased in response to the outbreak in moderately and severely defoliated sites. The increase in total inorganic soil nitrogen was driven by a strong increase in soil nitrate, and tended to become stronger with increasing site defoliation. Seedling height growth increased for all species in the moderately and severely defoliated sites, but not in lightly defoliated sites, either during the outbreak year or in the year after the outbreak. Growth increases did not become stronger with increasing site defoliation, but were strongest in a moderately defoliated site with high soil nutrient levels. Growth increases tended to be strongest for the shade intolerant species Fraxinus americana and Prunus serotina, and the shade tolerant species Ostrya virginiana. The strong growth response of F. americana and P. serotina suggests that recurring forest tent caterpillar outbreaks may facilitate the persistence of shade intolerant species in the understory in the absence of canopy gaps. Overall, our results suggest that recurrent canopy defoliation resulting from cyclical forest insect outbreaks may be an additional driver of dynamics in temperate closed

  8. Assessment of soil acidification effects on forest growth in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sverdrup, H.; Warfvinge, P.; Nihlgaard, B.

    1994-01-01

    The results of mapping critical loads, areas where they have been exceeded and steady state (Ca+Mg+K)/Al ratios of soils in Sweden, has been used to assess the order of magnitude of the ecological and economic risks involved with acid deposition for Swedish forests. The results of the calculations indicate that 81% of the Swedish forested area received acid deposition in excess of the critical load at present. Under continued deposition at 1990 level, forest die-back is predicted to occur on approximately 1% of the forested area, and significant growth rate reductions are predicted for 80% of the Swedish forested area. For Sweden, growth losses in the order of 17.5 million m -3 yr -1 are predicted, equivalent to approximately 19% of current growth. Comparable losses can be predicted for other Nordic countries. The soil acidification situation is predicted to deteriorate significantly during the next 5-15 years, unless rapid emission reductions can be achieved. A minimum deposition reduction over Sweden of 95% on sulphur deposition and 30% on the N deposition in relation to 1990 level is required in order to protect 95% of the Swedish forest ecosystems from adverse effects of acidification. A minimum reduction of 60% on sulphur deposition and 30% on the N deposition is required to keep forest harvest at planned levels. 148 refs., 9 figs., 9 tabs

  9. Growth rates of important East African montane forest trees, with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    These trees showed growth rates at least twice as high as those of the primary species. Juniperus procera was found to be the fastest growing species in the cedar forest, underlining its success in forming dense stands after a fire. Only young Podocarpus latifolius showed a similar fast growth. Olea europaea ssp. cuspidata, ...

  10. Modelling radiocesium fluxes in forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.; Kliashtorin, A.; Mamikhin, S.; Shcheglov, A.; Rafferty, B.; Dvornik, A.; Zhuchenko, T.; Kuchma, N.

    1996-01-01

    Monitoring of radiocesium inventories and fluxes has been carried out in forest ecosystems in Ukraine, Belarus and Ireland to determine distributions and rates of migration. This information has been used to construct and calibrate mathematical models which are being used to predict the likely longevity of contamination of forests and forest products such as timber following the Chernobyl accident

  11. Ecological setting of the Wind River old-growth forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David C. Shaw; Jerry F. Franklin; Ken Bible; Jeffrey Klopatek; Elizabeth Freeman; Sarah Greene; Geoffrey G. Parker

    2004-01-01

    The Wind River old-growth forest, in the southern Cascade Range of Washington State, is a cool (average annual temperature, 8.7°C), moist (average annual precipitation, 2223 mm), 500-year-old Douglas-fir-western hemlock forest of moderate to low productivity at 371-m elevation on a less than 10% slope. There is a seasonal snowpack (November-March), and rain-on-snow and...

  12. Modeling Alaska boreal forests with a controlled trend surface approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Jingjing Liang

    2012-01-01

    An approach of Controlled Trend Surface was proposed to simultaneously take into consideration large-scale spatial trends and nonspatial effects. A geospatial model of the Alaska boreal forest was developed from 446 permanent sample plots, which addressed large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of...

  13. LASL models for environmental transport of radionuclides in forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Smith, W.J.; Johnson, L.J.

    1978-01-01

    The Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory has been developing techniques for evaluating the adequacy of shallow land radioactive disposal sites to contain disposed radionuclides. This report discusses developments in applying a Biological Transport Model to simulate the cycling of plutonium in pinyon-juniper, and ponderosa pine forest ecosystems through serial stage developments using plant growth dynamics created in the model

  14. An economic model of international wood supply, forest stock and forest area change

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

    2006-01-01

    Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock...

  15. Stochastic ontogenetic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, B. J.; West, D.

    2012-02-01

    An ontogenetic growth model (OGM) for a thermodynamically closed system is generalized to satisfy both the first and second law of thermodynamics. The hypothesized stochastic ontogenetic growth model (SOGM) is shown to entail the interspecies allometry relation by explicitly averaging the basal metabolic rate and the total body mass over the steady-state probability density for the total body mass (TBM). This is the first derivation of the interspecies metabolic allometric relation from a dynamical model and the asymptotic steady-state distribution of the TBM is fit to data and shown to be inverse power law.

  16. Modeling carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

    2005-01-01

    A forest biogeochemical model, Forest-DNDC, was developed to quantify carbon sequestration in and trace gas emissions from forest ecosystems. Forest-DNDC was constructed by integrating two existing moels, PnET and DNDC, with several new features including nitrification, forest litter layer, soil freezing and thawing etc, PnET is a forest physiological model predicting...

  17. Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chazdon, Robin L; Broadbent, Eben N; Rozendaal, Danaë M A; Bongers, Frans; Zambrano, Angélica María Almeyda; Aide, T Mitchell; Balvanera, Patricia; Becknell, Justin M; Boukili, Vanessa; Brancalion, Pedro H S; Craven, Dylan; Almeida-Cortez, Jarcilene S; Cabral, George A L; de Jong, Ben; Denslow, Julie S; Dent, Daisy H; DeWalt, Saara J; Dupuy, Juan M; Durán, Sandra M; Espírito-Santo, Mario M; Fandino, María C; César, Ricardo G; Hall, Jefferson S; Hernández-Stefanoni, José Luis; Jakovac, Catarina C; Junqueira, André B; Kennard, Deborah; Letcher, Susan G; Lohbeck, Madelon; Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Massoca, Paulo; Meave, Jorge A; Mesquita, Rita; Mora, Francisco; Muñoz, Rodrigo; Muscarella, Robert; Nunes, Yule R F; Ochoa-Gaona, Susana; Orihuela-Belmonte, Edith; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Pérez-García, Eduardo A; Piotto, Daniel; Powers, Jennifer S; Rodríguez-Velazquez, Jorge; Romero-Pérez, Isabel Eunice; Ruíz, Jorge; Saldarriaga, Juan G; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo; Schwartz, Naomi B; Steininger, Marc K; Swenson, Nathan G; Uriarte, Maria; van Breugel, Michiel; van der Wal, Hans; Veloso, Maria D M; Vester, Hans; Vieira, Ima Celia G; Bentos, Tony Vizcarra; Williamson, G Bruce; Poorter, Lourens

    2016-05-01

    Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We estimate the age and spatial extent of lowland second-growth forests in the Latin American tropics and model their potential aboveground carbon accumulation over four decades. Our model shows that, in 2008, second-growth forests (1 to 60 years old) covered 2.4 million km(2) of land (28.1% of the total study area). Over 40 years, these lands can potentially accumulate a total aboveground carbon stock of 8.48 Pg C (petagrams of carbon) in aboveground biomass via low-cost natural regeneration or assisted regeneration, corresponding to a total CO2 sequestration of 31.09 Pg CO2. This total is equivalent to carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes in all of Latin America and the Caribbean from 1993 to 2014. Ten countries account for 95% of this carbon storage potential, led by Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We model future land-use scenarios to guide national carbon mitigation policies. Permitting natural regeneration on 40% of lowland pastures potentially stores an additional 2.0 Pg C over 40 years. Our study provides information and maps to guide national-level forest-based carbon mitigation plans on the basis of estimated rates of natural regeneration and pasture abandonment. Coupled with avoided deforestation and sustainable forest management, natural regeneration of second-growth forests provides a low-cost mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

  18. Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chazdon, Robin L.; Broadbent, Eben N.; Rozendaal, Danaë M. A.; Bongers, Frans; Zambrano, Angélica María Almeyda; Aide, T. Mitchell; Balvanera, Patricia; Becknell, Justin M.; Boukili, Vanessa; Brancalion, Pedro H. S.; Craven, Dylan; Almeida-Cortez, Jarcilene S.; Cabral, George A. L.; de Jong, Ben; Denslow, Julie S.; Dent, Daisy H.; DeWalt, Saara J.; Dupuy, Juan M.; Durán, Sandra M.; Espírito-Santo, Mario M.; Fandino, María C.; César, Ricardo G.; Hall, Jefferson S.; Hernández-Stefanoni, José Luis; Jakovac, Catarina C.; Junqueira, André B.; Kennard, Deborah; Letcher, Susan G.; Lohbeck, Madelon; Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Massoca, Paulo; Meave, Jorge A.; Mesquita, Rita; Mora, Francisco; Muñoz, Rodrigo; Muscarella, Robert; Nunes, Yule R. F.; Ochoa-Gaona, Susana; Orihuela-Belmonte, Edith; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Pérez-García, Eduardo A.; Piotto, Daniel; Powers, Jennifer S.; Rodríguez-Velazquez, Jorge; Romero-Pérez, Isabel Eunice; Ruíz, Jorge; Saldarriaga, Juan G.; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo; Schwartz, Naomi B.; Steininger, Marc K.; Swenson, Nathan G.; Uriarte, Maria; van Breugel, Michiel; van der Wal, Hans; Veloso, Maria D. M.; Vester, Hans; Vieira, Ima Celia G.; Bentos, Tony Vizcarra; Williamson, G. Bruce; Poorter, Lourens

    2016-01-01

    Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We estimate the age and spatial extent of lowland second-growth forests in the Latin American tropics and model their potential aboveground carbon accumulation over four decades. Our model shows that, in 2008, second-growth forests (1 to 60 years old) covered 2.4 million km2 of land (28.1% of the total study area). Over 40 years, these lands can potentially accumulate a total aboveground carbon stock of 8.48 Pg C (petagrams of carbon) in aboveground biomass via low-cost natural regeneration or assisted regeneration, corresponding to a total CO2 sequestration of 31.09 Pg CO2. This total is equivalent to carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes in all of Latin America and the Caribbean from 1993 to 2014. Ten countries account for 95% of this carbon storage potential, led by Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We model future land-use scenarios to guide national carbon mitigation policies. Permitting natural regeneration on 40% of lowland pastures potentially stores an additional 2.0 Pg C over 40 years. Our study provides information and maps to guide national-level forest-based carbon mitigation plans on the basis of estimated rates of natural regeneration and pasture abandonment. Coupled with avoided deforestation and sustainable forest management, natural regeneration of second-growth forests provides a low-cost mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services. PMID:27386528

  19. Tree growth and competition in an old-growth Picea abies forest of boreal Sweden: influence of tree spatial patterning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraver, Shawn; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Jonsson, Bengt Gunnar; Jönsson, Mari; Esseen, Per-Anders

    2013-01-01

    Question: What factors best characterize tree competitive environments in this structurally diverse old-growth forest, and do these factors vary spatially within and among stands? Location: Old-growth Picea abies forest of boreal Sweden. Methods: Using long-term, mapped permanent plot data augmented with dendrochronological analyses, we evaluated the effect of neighbourhood competition on focal tree growth by means of standard competition indices, each modified to include various metrics of trees size, neighbour mortality weighting (for neighbours that died during the inventory period), and within-neighbourhood tree clustering. Candidate models were evaluated using mixed-model linear regression analyses, with mean basal area increment as the response variable. We then analysed stand-level spatial patterns of competition indices and growth rates (via kriging) to determine if the relationship between these patterns could further elucidate factors influencing tree growth. Results: Inter-tree competition clearly affected growth rates, with crown volume being the size metric most strongly influencing the neighbourhood competitive environment. Including neighbour tree mortality weightings in models only slightly improved descriptions of competitive interactions. Although the within-neighbourhood clustering index did not improve model predictions, competition intensity was influenced by the underlying stand-level tree spatial arrangement: stand-level clustering locally intensified competition and reduced tree growth, whereas in the absence of such clustering, inter-tree competition played a lesser role in constraining tree growth. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that competition continues to influence forest processes and structures in an old-growth system that has not experienced major disturbances for at least two centuries. The finding that the underlying tree spatial pattern influenced the competitive environment suggests caution in interpreting traditional tree

  20. Forest biomass carbon sinks in East Asia, with special reference to the relative contributions of forest expansion and forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Jingyun; Guo, Zhaodi; Hu, Huifeng; Kato, Tomomichi; Muraoka, Hiroyuki; Son, Yowhan

    2014-06-01

    Forests play an important role in regional and global carbon (C) cycles. With extensive afforestation and reforestation efforts over the last several decades, forests in East Asia have largely expanded, but the dynamics of their C stocks have not been fully assessed. We estimated biomass C stocks of the forests in all five East Asian countries (China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Mongolia) between the 1970s and the 2000s, using the biomass expansion factor method and forest inventory data. Forest area and biomass C density in the whole region increased from 179.78 × 10(6) ha and 38.6 Mg C ha(-1) in the 1970s to 196.65 × 10(6) ha and 45.5 Mg C ha(-1) in the 2000s, respectively. The C stock increased from 6.9 Pg C to 8.9 Pg C, with an averaged sequestration rate of 66.9 Tg C yr(-1). Among the five countries, China and Japan were two major contributors to the total region's forest C sink, with respective contributions of 71.1% and 32.9%. In China, the areal expansion of forest land was a larger contributor to C sinks than increased biomass density for all forests (60.0% vs. 40.0%) and for planted forests (58.1% vs. 41.9%), while the latter contributed more than the former for natural forests (87.0% vs. 13.0%). In Japan, increased biomass density dominated the C sink for all (101.5%), planted (91.1%), and natural (123.8%) forests. Forests in South Korea also acted as a C sink, contributing 9.4% of the total region's sink because of increased forest growth (98.6%). Compared to these countries, the reduction in forest land in both North Korea and Mongolia caused a C loss at an average rate of 9.0 Tg C yr(-1), equal to 13.4% of the total region's C sink. Over the last four decades, the biomass C sequestration by East Asia's forests offset 5.8% of its contemporary fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Spatial and Temporal Relationships of Old-Growth and Secondary Forests in Indiana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin A. Spetich; George R. Parker; Eric J. Gustafson

    1997-01-01

    We examined the spatial pattern of forests in Indiana to: (1) determine the extent, connectivity and percent edge of all forests, (2) examine the change in connectivity among these forests if all riparian zones were replanted to forest or other native vegetation, (3) determine the location, spatial dispersion and percent edge of current old-growth forest remnants, (4)...

  2. Modeling urban fire growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterman, T.E.; Takata, A.N.

    1983-01-01

    The IITRI Urban Fire Spread Model as well as others of similar vintage were constrained by computer size and running costs such that many approximations/generalizations were introduced to reduce program complexity and data storage requirements. Simplifications were introduced both in input data and in fire growth and spread calculations. Modern computational capabilities offer the means to introduce greater detail and to examine its practical significance on urban fire predictions. Selected portions of the model are described as presently configured, and potential modifications are discussed. A single tract model is hypothesized which permits the importance of various model details to be assessed, and, other model applications are identified

  3. Growth Dynamics of Araucaria after Management Interventions in Natural Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Régis Villanova Longhi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of selective logging on the growth dynamics of Araucaria angustifolia in a natural forest of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. Treatments were based on percentage reduction of the basal area per DBH class, namely, T0 (control = 0%; T1 (light selective logging = reduction of 20-30%; T2 (moderate selective logging = reduction of 40-50%. Data were obtained prior to the management interventions and four, eight and 13 years after selective logging. Changes between treatments were assessed using the following parameters: absolute density, absolute dominance, importance value index, and growth rates. Results show that population reduction and canopy opening provided greater recruitment and higher growth rates for araucaria in the management treatments (T1 and T2 compared with those of the control treatment (T0. These results reinforce that management practices are necessary for the continuous development of araucaria in this forest formation.

  4. Steeper declines in forest photosynthesis than respiration explain age-driven decreases in forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jianwu; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Richardson, Andrew D; Kutsch, Werner; Janssens, Ivan A

    2014-06-17

    The traditional view of forest dynamics originated by Kira and Shidei [Kira T, Shidei T (1967) Jap J Ecol 17:70-87] and Odum [Odum EP (1969) Science 164(3877):262-270] suggests a decline in net primary productivity (NPP) in aging forests due to stabilized gross primary productivity (GPP) and continuously increased autotrophic respiration (Ra). The validity of these trends in GPP and Ra is, however, very difficult to test because of the lack of long-term ecosystem-scale field observations of both GPP and Ra. Ryan and colleagues [Ryan MG, Binkley D, Fownes JH (1997) Ad Ecol Res 27:213-262] have proposed an alternative hypothesis drawn from site-specific results that aboveground respiration and belowground allocation decreased in aging forests. Here, we analyzed data from a recently assembled global database of carbon fluxes and show that the classical view of the mechanisms underlying the age-driven decline in forest NPP is incorrect and thus support Ryan's alternative hypothesis. Our results substantiate the age-driven decline in NPP, but in contrast to the traditional view, both GPP and Ra decline in aging boreal and temperate forests. We find that the decline in NPP in aging forests is primarily driven by GPP, which decreases more rapidly with increasing age than Ra does, but the ratio of NPP/GPP remains approximately constant within a biome. Our analytical models describing forest succession suggest that dynamic forest ecosystem models that follow the traditional paradigm need to be revisited.

  5. The linkages between photosynthesis, productivity, growth and biomass in lowland Amazonian forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhi, Yadvinder; Doughty, Christopher E; Goldsmith, Gregory R; Metcalfe, Daniel B; Girardin, Cécile A J; Marthews, Toby R; Del Aguila-Pasquel, Jhon; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Brando, Paulo; da Costa, Antonio C L; Silva-Espejo, Javier E; Farfán Amézquita, Filio; Galbraith, David R; Quesada, Carlos A; Rocha, Wanderley; Salinas-Revilla, Norma; Silvério, Divino; Meir, Patrick; Phillips, Oliver L

    2015-06-01

    Understanding the relationship between photosynthesis, net primary productivity and growth in forest ecosystems is key to understanding how these ecosystems will respond to global anthropogenic change, yet the linkages among these components are rarely explored in detail. We provide the first comprehensive description of the productivity, respiration and carbon allocation of contrasting lowland Amazonian forests spanning gradients in seasonal water deficit and soil fertility. Using the largest data set assembled to date, ten sites in three countries all studied with a standardized methodology, we find that (i) gross primary productivity (GPP) has a simple relationship with seasonal water deficit, but that (ii) site-to-site variations in GPP have little power in explaining site-to-site spatial variations in net primary productivity (NPP) or growth because of concomitant changes in carbon use efficiency (CUE), and conversely, the woody growth rate of a tropical forest is a very poor proxy for its productivity. Moreover, (iii) spatial patterns of biomass are much more driven by patterns of residence times (i.e. tree mortality rates) than by spatial variation in productivity or tree growth. Current theory and models of tropical forest carbon cycling under projected scenarios of global atmospheric change can benefit from advancing beyond a focus on GPP. By improving our understanding of poorly understood processes such as CUE, NPP allocation and biomass turnover times, we can provide more complete and mechanistic approaches to linking climate and tropical forest carbon cycling. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Forest Typification to Characterize the Structure and Composition of Old-growth Evergreen Forests on Chiloe Island, North Patagonia (Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan R. Bannister

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The Evergreen forest type develops along the Valdivian and North-Patagonian phytogeographical regions of the south-central part of Chile (38° S–46° S. These evergreen forests have been scarcely studied south of 43° S, where there is still a large area made up of old-growth forests. Silvicultural proposals for the Evergreen forest type have been based on northern Evergreen forests, so that the characterization of the structure and composition of southern Evergreen forests, e.g., their typification, would aid in the development of appropriate silvicultural proposals for these forests. Based on the tree composition of 46 sampled plots in old-growth forests in an area of >1000 ha in southern Chiloé Island (43° S, we used multivariate analyses to define forest groups and to compare these forests with other evergreen forests throughout the Archipelago of North-Patagonia. We determined that evergreen forests of southern Chiloé correspond to the North-Patagonian temperate rainforests that are characterized by few tree species of different shade tolerance growing on fragile soils. We discuss the convenience of developing continuous cover forest management for these forests, rather than selective cuts or even-aged management that is proposed in the current legislation. This study is a contribution to forest classification for both ecologically- and forestry-oriented purposes.

  7. Modelling dimensional growth of three street tree species in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results could also be used in the process of modelling energy use reduction, air pollution uptake, rainfall interception, carbon sequestration and microclimate modification of urban forests such as those found in the City of Tshwane. Keywords: allometry; regression; size relationships; tree growth; urban forests. Southern ...

  8. Communicating old-growth forest management on the Allegheny National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brad Nelson; Chris Nowak; Dave deCalesta; Steve Wingate

    1997-01-01

    Successful communication of old-growth management, including the role of silviculture, is achieved by integrating as a working whole the topics addressed in this workshop. We have used research, technology transfer and adaptive management to achieve this integration on the Allegheny National Forest. Program success depends on scientists and practitioners working...

  9. A modeling analysis of the interaction between forest age and forest responsiveness to increasing CO2 concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirschbaum, M.U.F.

    2005-01-01

    In this study, both young forest plants and established forest stands were examined to gain insight into likely plant responses to increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), temperature and altered rainfall patterns. Forests have rotations of about 10 to 200 years, during which time anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and the associated changes in climate change can be substantial. The changes are most likely to influence the growth of established forest stands. The CenW forest growth model was used to examine the mechanisms that are responsible for the slowing of forest growth with age, including the response to increasing carbon dioxide. It was shown that inclusion of allocation shifts with tree height, individual tree mortality, changing respiration load and nutrient changes has only a small effect on the response to increasing carbon dioxide. When photosynthesis of mature trees decreases, growth response to increasing CO 2 is reduced. Since the number of interacting processes is so large, no simple and broad interaction between increased carbon dioxide and forest age were identified. It was concluded that it is not yet possible to predict the change in carbon dioxide response by forest age. 54 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs

  10. Modeling landowner behavior regarding forest certification

    Science.gov (United States)

    David C. Mercker; Donald G. Hodges

    2008-01-01

    Nonindustrial private forest owners in western Tennessee were surveyed to assess their awareness, acceptance, and perceived benefits of forest certification. More than 80 percent of the landowners indicated a willingness to consider certification for their lands. A model was created to explain landowner behavior regarding their willingness to consider certification....

  11. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  12. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  13. Looking for age-related growth decline in natural forests: unexpected biomass patterns from tree rings and simulated mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Jane R.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.

    2014-01-01

    Forest biomass growth is almost universally assumed to peak early in stand development, near canopy closure, after which it will plateau or decline. The chronosequence and plot remeasurement approaches used to establish the decline pattern suffer from limitations and coarse temporal detail. We combined annual tree ring measurements and mortality models to address two questions: first, how do assumptions about tree growth and mortality influence reconstructions of biomass growth? Second, under what circumstances does biomass production follow the model that peaks early, then declines? We integrated three stochastic mortality models with a census tree-ring data set from eight temperate forest types to reconstruct stand-level biomass increments (in Minnesota, USA). We compared growth patterns among mortality models, forest types and stands. Timing of peak biomass growth varied significantly among mortality models, peaking 20–30 years earlier when mortality was random with respect to tree growth and size, than when mortality favored slow-growing individuals. Random or u-shaped mortality (highest in small or large trees) produced peak growth 25–30 % higher than the surviving tree sample alone. Growth trends for even-aged, monospecific Pinus banksiana or Acer saccharum forests were similar to the early peak and decline expectation. However, we observed continually increasing biomass growth in older, low-productivity forests of Quercus rubra, Fraxinus nigra, and Thuja occidentalis. Tree-ring reconstructions estimated annual changes in live biomass growth and identified more diverse development patterns than previous methods. These detailed, long-term patterns of biomass development are crucial for detecting recent growth responses to global change and modeling future forest dynamics.

  14. Increased water deficit decreases Douglas fir growth throughout western US forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restaino, Christina M; Peterson, David L; Littell, Jeremy

    2016-08-23

    Changes in tree growth rates can affect tree mortality and forest feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. As air temperature increases, evaporative demand also increases, increasing effective drought in forest ecosystems. Using a spatially comprehensive network of Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) chronologies from 122 locations that represent distinct climate environments in the western United States, we show that increased temperature decreases growth via vapor pressure deficit (VPD) across all latitudes. Using an ensemble of global circulation models, we project an increase in both the mean VPD associated with the lowest growth extremes and the probability of exceeding these VPD values. As temperature continues to increase in future decades, we can expect deficit-related stress to increase and consequently Douglas fir growth to decrease throughout its US range.

  15. Discrimination between acute and chronic decline of Central European forests using map algebra of the growth condition and forest biomass fuzzy sets: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samec, Pavel; Caha, Jan; Zapletal, Miloš; Tuček, Pavel; Cudlín, Pavel; Kučera, Miloš

    2017-12-01

    Forest decline is either caused by damage or else by vulnerability due to unfavourable growth conditions or due to unnatural silvicultural systems. Here, we assess forest decline in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) using fuzzy functions, fuzzy sets and fuzzy rating of ecosystem properties over a 1×1km grid. The model was divided into fuzzy functions of the abiotic predictors of growth conditions (F pred including temperature, precipitation, acid deposition, soil data and relative site insolation) and forest biomass receptors (F rec including remote sensing data, density and volume of aboveground biomass, and surface humus chemical data). Fuzzy functions were designed at the limits of unfavourable, undetermined or favourable effects on the forest ecosystem health status. Fuzzy sets were distinguished through similarity in a particular membership of the properties at the limits of the forest status margins. Fuzzy rating was obtained from the least difference of F pred -F rec . Unfavourable F pred within unfavourable F rec indicated chronic damage, favourable F pred within unfavourable F rec indicated acute damage, and unfavourable F pred within favourable F rec indicated vulnerability. The model in the 1×1km grid was validated through spatial intersection with a point field of uniform forest stands. Favourable status was characterised by soil base saturation (BS)>50%, BCC/Al>1, C org >1%, MgO>6g/kg, and nitrogen depositionforests had BS humus 46-60%, BCC/Al 9-20 and NDVI≈0.42. Chronic forest damage occurs in areas with low temperatures, high nitrogen deposition, and low soil BS and C org levels. In the Czech Republic, 10% of forests were considered non-damaged and 77% vulnerable, with damage considered acute in 7% of forests and chronic in 5%. The fuzzy model used suggests that improvement in forest health will depend on decreasing environmental load and restoration concordance between growth conditions and tree species composition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

  16. Declining Radial Growth Response of Coastal Forests to Hurricanes and Nor'easters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Arnold; Rollinson, Christine R.; Kearney, William S.; Dietze, Michael C.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2018-03-01

    The Mid-Atlantic coastal forests in Virginia are stressed by episodic disturbance from hurricanes and nor'easters. Using annual tree ring data, we adopt a dendroclimatic and statistical modeling approach to understand the response and resilience of a coastal pine forest to extreme storm events, over the past few decades. Results indicate that radial growth of trees in the study area is influenced by age, regional climate trends, and individual tree effects but dominated periodically by growth disturbance due to storms. We evaluated seven local extreme storm events to understand the effect of nor'easters and hurricanes on radial growth. A general decline in radial growth was observed in the year of the extreme storm and 3 years following it, after which the radial growth started recovering. The decline in radial growth showed a statistically significant correlation with the magnitude of the extreme storm (storm surge height and wind speed). This study contributes to understanding declining tree growth response and resilience of coastal forests to past disturbances. Given the potential increase in hurricanes and storm surge severity in the region, this can help predict vegetation response patterns to similar disturbances in the future.

  17. A Hierarchical Analysis of Tree Growth and Environmental Drivers Across Eastern US Temperate Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

    2014-12-01

    Improving predictions of how forests in the eastern United States will respond to future global change requires a better understanding of the drivers of variability in tree growth rates. Current inventory data lack the temporal resolution to characterize interannual variability, while existing growth records lack the extent required to assess spatial scales of variability. Therefore, we established a network of forest inventory plots across ten sites across the eastern US, and measured growth in adult trees using increment cores. Sites were chosen to maximize climate space explored, while within sites, plots were spread across primary environmental gradients to explore landscape-level variability in growth. Using the annual growth record available from tree cores, we explored the responses of trees to multiple environmental covariates over multiple spatial and temporal scales. We hypothesized that within and across sites growth rates vary among species, and that intraspecific growth rates increase with temperature along a species' range. We also hypothesized that trees show synchrony in growth responses to landscape-scale climatic changes. Initial analyses of growth increments indicate that across sites, trees with intermediate shade tolerance, e.g. Red Oak (Quercus rubra), tend to have the highest growth rates. At the site level, there is evidence for synchrony in response to large-scale climatic events (e.g. prolonged drought and above average temperatures). However, growth responses to climate at the landscape scale have yet to be detected. Our current analysis utilizes hierarchical Bayesian state-space modeling to focus on growth responses of adult trees to environmental covariates at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This predictive model of tree growth currently incorporates observed effects at the individual, plot, site, and landscape scale. Current analysis using this model shows a potential slowing of growth in the past decade for two sites in the

  18. Do rising temperatures always increase forest productivity? Interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, cloudiness and soil texture on tree species growth and competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Miranda; Arjan M.G. De Bruijn; Brian R. Sturtevant; Mark E. Kubiske

    2017-01-01

    Forest landscape models (FLM) are increasingly used to project the effects of climate change on forested landscapes, yet most use phenomenological approaches with untested assumptions about future forest dynamics. We used a FLM that relies on first principles to mechanistically simulate growth (LANDIS-II with PnET-Succession) to systematically explore how landscapes...

  19. Modeling Forest Succession among Ecological Land Units in Northern Minnesota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Host

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Field and modeling studies were used to quantify potential successional pathways among fine-scale ecological classification units within two geomorphic regions of north-central Minnesota. Soil and overstory data were collected on plots stratified across low-relief ground moraines and undulating sand dunes. Each geomorphic feature was sampled across gradients of topography or soil texture. Overstory conditions were sampled using five variable-radius point samples per plot; soil samples were analyzed for carbon and nitrogen content. Climatic, forest composition, and soil data were used to parameterize the sample plots for use with LINKAGES, a forest growth model that simulates changes in composition and soil characteristics over time. Forest composition and soil properties varied within and among geomorphic features. LINKAGES simulations were using "bare ground" and the current overstory as starting conditions. Northern hardwoods or pines dominated the late-successional communities of morainal and dune landforms, respectively. The morainal landforms were dominated by yellow birch and sugar maple; yellow birch reached its maximum abundance in intermediate landscape positions. On the dune sites, pine was most abundant in drier landscape positions, with white spruce increasing in abundance with increasing soil moisture and N content. The differences in measured soil properties and predicted late-successional composition indicate that ecological land units incorporate some of the key variables that govern forest composition and structure. They further show the value of ecological classification and modeling for developing forest management strategies that incorporate the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest ecosystems.

  20. Comparing the plant diversity between artificial forest and nature growth forest in a giant panda habitat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Dongwei; Wang, Xiaorong; Li, Shuang; Li, Junqing

    2017-06-15

    Artificial restoration is an important way to restore forests, but little is known about its effect on the habitat restoration of the giant panda. In the present study, we investigated the characteristics of artificial forest in the Wanglang Nature Reserve to determine whether through succession it has formed a suitable habitat for the giant panda. We compared artificial forest characteristics with those of natural habitat used by the giant panda. We found that the dominant tree species in artificial forest differed from those in the natural habitat. The artificial forest had lower plant species richness and diversity in the tree and shrub layers than did the latter, and its community structure was characterized by smaller tree and bamboo sizes, and fewer and lower bamboo clumps, but more trees and larger shrub sizes. The typical community collocation of artificial forest was a "Picea asperata + no-bamboo" model, which differs starkly from the giant panda's natural habitat. After several years of restoration, the artificial forest has failed to become a suitable habitat for the giant panda. Therefore, a simple way of planting individual trees cannot restore giant panda habitat; instead, habitat restoration should be based on the habitat requirements of the giant panda.

  1. Benchmark carbon stocks from old-growth forests in northern New England, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coeli M. Hoover; William B. Leak; Brian G. Keel

    2012-01-01

    Forests world-wide are recognized as important components of the global carbon cycle. Carbon sequestration has become a recognized forest management objective, but the full carbon storage potential of forests is not well understood. The premise of this study is that old-growth forests can be expected to provide a reasonable estimate of the upper limits of carbon...

  2. Contrasting growth phenology of native and invasive forest shrubs mediated by genome size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridley, Jason D; Craddock, Alaä

    2015-08-01

    Examination of the significance of genome size to plant invasions has been largely restricted to its association with growth rate. We investigated the novel hypothesis that genome size is related to forest invasions through its association with growth phenology, as a result of the ability of large-genome species to grow more effectively through cell expansion at cool temperatures. We monitored the spring leaf phenology of 54 species of eastern USA deciduous forests, including native and invasive shrubs of six common genera. We used new measurements of genome size to evaluate its association with spring budbreak, cell size, summer leaf production rate, and photosynthetic capacity. In a phylogenetic hierarchical model that differentiated native and invasive species as a function of summer growth rate and spring budbreak timing, species with smaller genomes exhibited both faster growth and delayed budbreak compared with those with larger nuclear DNA content. Growth rate, but not budbreak timing, was associated with whether a species was native or invasive. Our results support genome size as a broad indicator of the growth behavior of woody species. Surprisingly, invaders of deciduous forests show the same small-genome tendencies of invaders of more open habitats, supporting genome size as a robust indicator of invasiveness. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

  3. Optimizing continuous cover management of boreal forest when timber prices and tree growth are stochastic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo Pukkala

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Decisions on forest management are made under risk and uncertainty because the stand development cannot be predicted exactly and future timber prices are unknown. Deterministic calculations may lead to biased advice on optimal forest management. The study optimized continuous cover management of boreal forest in a situation where tree growth, regeneration, and timber prices include uncertainty. Methods Both anticipatory and adaptive optimization approaches were used. The adaptive approach optimized the reservation price function instead of fixed cutting years. The future prices of different timber assortments were described by cross-correlated auto-regressive models. The high variation around ingrowth model was simulated using a model that describes the cross- and autocorrelations of the regeneration results of different species and years. Tree growth was predicted with individual tree models, the predictions of which were adjusted on the basis of a climate-induced growth trend, which was stochastic. Residuals of the deterministic diameter growth model were also simulated. They consisted of random tree factors and cross- and autocorrelated temporal terms. Results Of the analyzed factors, timber price caused most uncertainty in the calculation of the net present value of a certain management schedule. Ingrowth and climate trend were less significant sources of risk and uncertainty than tree growth. Stochastic anticipatory optimization led to more diverse post-cutting stand structures than obtained in deterministic optimization. Cutting interval was shorter when risk and uncertainty were included in the analyses. Conclusions Adaptive optimization and management led to 6%–14% higher net present values than obtained in management that was based on anticipatory optimization. Increasing risk aversion of the forest landowner led to earlier cuttings in a mature stand. The effect of risk attitude on optimization results was small.

  4. The value of volume and growth measurements in timber sales management of the National Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lietzke, K. R.

    1977-01-01

    This paper summarizes work performed in the estimation of gross social value of timber volume and growth rate information used in making regional harvest decisions in the National Forest System. A model was developed to permit parametric analysis. The problem is formulated as one of finding optimal inventory holding patterns. Public timber management differs from other inventory holding problems in that the inventory, itself, generates value over time in providing recreational, aesthetic and environmental goods. 'Nontimber' demand estimates are inferred from past Forest Service harvest and sales levels. The solution requires a description of the harvest rates which maintain the optimum inventory level. Gross benefits of the Landsat systems are estimated by comparison with Forest Service information gathering models. Gross annual benefits are estimated to be $5.9 million for the MSS system and $7.2 million for the TM system.

  5. Interactive effects of ozone and climate on tree growth and water use in a southern Appalachian forest in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    S.B. McLaughlin; S.D. Wullschleger; G. Sun

    2007-01-01

    A lack of data on responses of mature tree growth and water use to ambient ozone (O3) concentrations has been a major limitation in efforts to understand and model responses of forests to current and future changes in climate.Here, hourly to seasonal patterns of stem growth and sap flow velocity were...

  6. Structure and development of old-growth, unmanaged second-growth, and extended rotation Pinus resinosa forests in Minnesota, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emily J. Silver; Anthony W. D' Amato; Shawn Fraver; Brian J. Palik; John B. Bradford

    2013-01-01

    The structure and developmental dynamics of old-growth forests often serve as important baselines for restoration prescriptions aimed at promoting more complex structural conditions in managed forest landscapes. Nonetheless, long-term information on natural patterns of development is rare for many commercially important and ecologically widespread forest types....

  7. Flow-dependent directional growth of carbon nanotube forests by chemical vapor deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hyeongkeun; Park, Young Chul; Chun, Kyoung-Yong; Kim, Young-Jin; Choi, Jae-Boong [School of Mechanical Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, 440-746 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Keun Soo; Kang, Junmo; Hong, Byung Hee [SKKU Advanced Institute of Nanotechnology (SAINT) and Center for Human Interface Nano Technology (HINT), Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, 440-746 (Korea, Republic of); Boo, Jin-Hyo, E-mail: byunghee@skku.edu, E-mail: boong33@skku.edu [Department of Chemistry, RIAN and Institute of Basic Science, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, 440-746 (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-03-04

    We demonstrated that the structural formation of vertically aligned carbon nanotube (CNT) forests is primarily affected by the geometry-related gas flow, leading to the change of growth directions during the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process. By varying the growing time, flow rate, and direction of the carrier gas, the structures and the formation mechanisms of the vertically aligned CNT forests were carefully investigated. The growth directions of CNTs are found to be highly dependent on the nonlinear local gas flows induced by microchannels. The angle of growth significantly changes with increasing gas flows perpendicular to the microchannel, while the parallel gas flow shows almost no effect. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was employed to explain the flow-dependent growth of CNT forests, revealing that the variation of the local pressure induced by microchannels is an important parameter determining the directionality of the CNT growth. We expect that the present method and analyses would provide useful information to control the micro- and macrostructures of vertically aligned CNTs for various structural/electrical applications.

  8. Flow-dependent directional growth of carbon nanotube forests by chemical vapor deposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyeongkeun; Park, Young Chul; Chun, Kyoung-Yong; Kim, Young-Jin; Choi, Jae-Boong; Kim, Keun Soo; Kang, Junmo; Hong, Byung Hee; Boo, Jin-Hyo

    2011-01-01

    We demonstrated that the structural formation of vertically aligned carbon nanotube (CNT) forests is primarily affected by the geometry-related gas flow, leading to the change of growth directions during the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process. By varying the growing time, flow rate, and direction of the carrier gas, the structures and the formation mechanisms of the vertically aligned CNT forests were carefully investigated. The growth directions of CNTs are found to be highly dependent on the nonlinear local gas flows induced by microchannels. The angle of growth significantly changes with increasing gas flows perpendicular to the microchannel, while the parallel gas flow shows almost no effect. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was employed to explain the flow-dependent growth of CNT forests, revealing that the variation of the local pressure induced by microchannels is an important parameter determining the directionality of the CNT growth. We expect that the present method and analyses would provide useful information to control the micro- and macrostructures of vertically aligned CNTs for various structural/electrical applications.

  9. Two decades of stability and change in old-growth forest at Mount Rainier National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven A. Acker; Jerry F. Franklin; Sarah E. Greene; Ted B. Thomas; Robert Van Pelt; Kenneth J. Bible

    2006-01-01

    We examined how composition and structure of old-growth and mature forests at Mount Rainier National Park changed between the mid-1970s and mid-1990s. We assessed whether the patterns of forest dynamics observed in lower elevation old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest held true for the higher-elevation forests of the Park. We used measurements of tree recruitment...

  10. Growth Decline Linked to Warming-Induced Water Limitation in Hemi-Boreal Forests

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Guo, Dali; Anenkhonov, Oleg A.; Badmaeva, Natalya K.; Sandanov, Denis V.

    2012-01-01

    Hemi-boreal forests, which make up the transition from temperate deciduous forests to boreal forests in southern Siberia, have experienced significant warming without any accompanying increase in precipitation during the last 80 years. This climatic change could have a profound impact on tree growth and on the stability of forest ecosystems in this region, but at present evidence for these impacts is lacking. In this study, we report a recent dramatic decline in the growth of hemi-boreal fore...

  11. Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

    2014-05-01

    Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

  12. Carbon storage in old-growth forests of the Mid-Atlantic: toward better understanding the eastern forest carbon sink.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarvey, Jennifer C; Thompson, Jonathan R; Epstein, Howard E; Shugart, Herman H

    2015-02-01

    Few old-growth stands remain in the matrix of secondary forests that dominates the eastern North American landscape. These remnant stands offer insight on the potential carbon (C) storage capacity of now-recovering secondary forests. We surveyed the remaining old-growth forests on sites characteristic of the general Mid-Atlantic United States and estimated the size of multiple components of forest C storage. Within and between old-growth stands, variability in C density is high and related to overstory tree species composition. The sites contain 219 ± 46 Mg C/ha (mean ± SD), including live and dead aboveground biomass, leaf litter, and the soil O horizon, with over 20% stored in downed wood and snags. Stands dominated by tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera) store the most live biomass, while the mixed oak (Quercus spp.) stands overall store more dead wood. Total C density is 30% higher (154 Mg C/ha), and dead wood C density is 1800% higher (46 Mg C/ha) in the old-growth forests than in the surrounding younger forests (120 and 5 Mg C/ha, respectively). The high density of dead wood in old growth relative to secondary forests reflects a stark difference in historical land use and, possibly, the legacy of the local disturbance (e.g., disease) history. Our results demonstrate the potential for dead wood to maintain the sink capacity of secondary forests for many decades to come.

  13. Spatially random mortality in old-growth red pine forests of northern Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuomas ​Aakala; Shawn Fraver; Brian J. Palik; Anthony W. D' Amato

    2012-01-01

    Characterizing the spatial distribution of tree mortality is critical to understanding forest dynamics, but empirical studies on these patterns under old-growth conditions are rare. This rarity is due in part to low mortality rates in old-growth forests, the study of which necessitates long observation periods, and the confounding influence of tree in-growth during...

  14. Differences in Townsend's chipmunk populations between second- and old-growth forests in western Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.K. Rosenberg; R.G. Anthony

    1993-01-01

    Because Townsend's chipmunks (Tomias townsendii) may be important in maintaining natural ecosystem processes in forests in the central Oregon Cascade Range, we compared their population characteristics in young second-growth and old-growth forests. We live-trapped Townsend's chipmunks in 5 young (30-60 yr old) second-growth and 5 old-...

  15. Climate-driven speedup of alpine treeline forest growth in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Zhaohuan; Liu, Hongyan; Wu, Xiuchen; Hao, Qian

    2015-02-01

    Forest growth is sensitive to interannual climatic change in the alpine treeline ecotone (ATE). Whether the alpine treeline ecotone shares a similar pattern of forest growth with lower elevational closed forest belt (CFB) under changing climate remains unclear. Here, we reported an unprecedented acceleration of Picea schrenkiana forest growth since 1960s in the ATE of Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China by a stand-total sampling along six altitudinal transects with three plots in each transect: one from the ATE between the treeline and the forest line, and the other two from the CFB. All the sampled P. schrenkiana forest patches show a higher growth speed after 1960 and, comparatively, forest growth in the CFB has sped up much slower than that in the ATE. The speedup of forest growth at the ATE is mainly accounted for by climate factors, with increasing temperature suggested to be the primary driver. Stronger water deficit as well as more competition within the CFB might have restricted forest growth there more than that within the ATE, implying biotic factors were also significant for the accelerated forest growth in the ATE, which should be excluded from simulations and predictions of warming-induced treeline dynamics. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Xylem traits, leaf longevity and growth phenology predict growth and mortality response to defoliation in northern temperate forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Jane R

    2017-09-01

    Defoliation outbreaks are biological disturbances that alter tree growth and mortality in temperate forests. Trees respond to defoliation in many ways; some recover rapidly, while others decline gradually or die. Functional traits such as xylem anatomy, growth phenology or non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) storage could explain these responses, but idiosyncratic measures used by defoliation studies have frustrated efforts to generalize among species. Here, I test for functional differences with published growth and mortality data from 37 studies, including 24 tree species and 11 defoliators from North America and Eurasia. I synthesized data into standardized variables suitable for numerical models and used linear mixed-effects models to test the hypotheses that responses to defoliation vary among species and functional groups. Standardized data show that defoliation responses vary in shape and degree. Growth decreased linearly or curvilinearly, least in ring-porous Quercus and deciduous conifers (by 10-40% per 100% defoliation), whereas growth of diffuse-porous hardwoods and evergreen conifers declined by 40-100%. Mortality increased exponentially with defoliation, most rapidly for evergreen conifers, then diffuse-porous, then ring-porous species and deciduous conifers (Larix). Goodness-of-fit for functional-group models was strong (R2c = 0.61-0.88), if lower than species-specific mixed-models (R2c = 0.77-0.93), providing useful alternatives when species data are lacking. These responses are consistent with functional differences in leaf longevity, wood growth phenology and NSC storage. When defoliator activity lags behind wood-growth, either because xylem-growth precedes budburst (Quercus) or defoliator activity peaks later (sawflies on Larix), impacts on annual wood-growth will always be lower. Wood-growth phenology of diffuse-porous species and evergreen conifers coincides with defoliation and responds more drastically, and lower axial NSC storage makes them

  17. Carbon nanotube forests growth using catalysts from atomic layer deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Bingan; Zhang, Can; Esconjauregui, Santiago; Xie, Rongsi; Zhong, Guofang; Robertson, John [Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0FA (United Kingdom); Bhardwaj, Sunil [Istituto Officina dei Materiali-CNR Laboratorio TASC, s.s. 14, km 163.4, I-34012 Trieste (Italy); Sincrotone Trieste S.C.p.A., s.s. 14, km 163.4, I-34149 Trieste (Italy); Cepek, Cinzia [Istituto Officina dei Materiali-CNR Laboratorio TASC, s.s. 14, km 163.4, I-34012 Trieste (Italy)

    2014-04-14

    We have grown carbon nanotubes using Fe and Ni catalyst films deposited by atomic layer deposition. Both metals lead to catalytically active nanoparticles for growing vertically aligned nanotube forests or carbon fibres, depending on the growth conditions and whether the substrate is alumina or silica. The resulting nanotubes have narrow diameter and wall number distributions that are as narrow as those grown from sputtered catalysts. The state of the catalyst is studied by in-situ and ex-situ X-ray photoemission spectroscopy. We demonstrate multi-directional nanotube growth on a porous alumina foam coated with Fe prepared by atomic layer deposition. This deposition technique can be useful for nanotube applications in microelectronics, filter technology, and energy storage.

  18. Growth kinetics and growth mechanism of ultrahigh mass density carbon nanotube forests on conductive Ti/Cu supports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugime, Hisashi; Esconjauregui, Santiago; D'Arsié, Lorenzo; Yang, Junwei; Makaryan, Taron; Robertson, John

    2014-09-10

    We evaluate the growth kinetics and growth mechanism of ultrahigh mass density carbon nanotube forests. They are synthesized by chemical vapor deposition at 450 °C using a conductive Ti/Cu support and Co-Mo catalyst system. We find that Mo stabilizes Co particles preventing lift off during the initial growth stage, thus promoting the growth of ultrahigh mass density nanotube forests by the base growth mechanism. The morphology of the forest gradually changes with growth time, mostly because of a structural change of the catalyst particles. After 100 min growth, toward the bottom of the forest, the area density decreases from ∼ 3-6 × 10(11) cm(-2) to ∼ 5 × 10(10) cm(-2) and the mass density decreases from 1.6 to 0.38 g cm(-3). We also observe part of catalyst particles detached and embedded within nanotubes. The progressive detachment of catalyst particles results in the depletion of the catalyst metals on the substrate surfaces. This is one of the crucial reasons for growth termination and may apply to other catalyst systems where the same features are observed. Using the packed forest morphology, we demonstrate patterned forest growth with a pitch of ∼ 300 nm and a line width of ∼ 150 nm. This is one of the smallest patterning of the carbon nanotube forests to date.

  19. Evaluating the impacts of slope aspect on forest dynamic succession in Northwest China based on FAREAST model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shanshan; Ma, Jianyong; Shugart, Herman H.; Yan, Xiaodong

    2018-03-01

    Mountain forests provide the main water resources and lumber for Northwest China. The understanding of the differences in forests growing among individual slope aspects in mountainous regions is of great significance to the wise management and planning of these natural systems. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of slope aspect on forest dynamic succession in Northwest China by using the dynamic forest succession model (FAREAST). First, the simulated forest composition and vertical forest zonation produced by the model were compared against recorded data in three sub-regions of the Altai Mountains. The FAREAST model accurately reproduced the vertical zonation, forest composition, growth curves of the dominant species (Larix sibirica), and forest biomass in the Altai Mountains. Transitions along the forest zones of the Altai Mountains averaged about a 400 m difference between the northern and southern sites. Biomass for forests on north-facing slopes were 11.0, 15.3 and 55.9 t C ha-1 higher than for south-facing slopes in the Northeast, Central and Southeast sub-regions, respectively. Second, our analyses showed that the FAREAST model can be used to predict dynamic forest succession in Northwest China under the influence of slope and aspect. In the Altai Mountains, the north-facing slopes supported the best forest growth, followed by the west- and east-facing slopes. South-facing slopes consistently exhibited the lowest growth, biomass storage and forest diversity.

  20. Temperature and rainfall strongly drive temporal growth variation in Asian tropical forest trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlam, Mart; Baker, Patrick J; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Zuidema, Pieter A

    2014-04-01

    Climate change effects on growth rates of tropical trees may lead to alterations in carbon cycling of carbon-rich tropical forests. However, climate sensitivity of broad-leaved lowland tropical trees is poorly understood. Dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis) provides a powerful tool to study the relationship between tropical tree growth and annual climate variability. We aimed to establish climate-growth relationships for five annual-ring forming tree species, using ring-width data from 459 canopy and understory trees from a seasonal tropical forest in western Thailand. Based on 183/459 trees, chronologies with total lengths between 29 and 62 years were produced for four out of five species. Bootstrapped correlation analysis revealed that climate-growth responses were similar among these four species. Growth was significantly negatively correlated with current-year maximum and minimum temperatures, and positively correlated with dry-season precipitation levels. Negative correlations between growth and temperature may be attributed to a positive relationship between temperature and autotrophic respiration rates. The positive relationship between growth and dry-season precipitation levels likely reflects the strong water demand during leaf flush. Mixed-effect models yielded results that were consistent across species: a negative effect of current wet-season maximum temperatures on growth, but also additive positive effects of, for example, prior dry-season maximum temperatures. Our analyses showed that annual growth variability in tropical trees is determined by a combination of both temperature and precipitation variability. With rising temperature, the predominantly negative relationship between temperature and growth may imply decreasing growth rates of tropical trees as a result of global warming.

  1. Technical change in forest sector models: the global forest products model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno; Sushuai Zhu

    2015-01-01

    Technical change is developing rapidly in some parts of the forest sector, especially in the pulp and paper industry where wood fiber is being substituted by waste paper. In forest sector models, the processing of wood and other input into products is frequently represented by activity analysis (input–output). In this context, technical change translates in changes...

  2. Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Rocha, Adrian; Calvin, Katherine V.; Holmes, Bruce; Wang, Chuankuan; Goulden, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    How will regional growth and mortality change with even relatively small climate shifts, even independent of catastrophic disturbances? This question is particularly acute for the North American boreal forest, which is carbon-dense and subject The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean DBH increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly from 41.3 to 37.5 m2 ha-1. Tree mortality averaged 1.4±0.6% yr-1, with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from 2001, 2004, and 2012 sampling showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. There have been at least one, and probably two, significant recruitment episodes since stand initiation, and we infer that past climate extremes led to significant NOBS mortality still visible in the current forest structure. These results imply that a combination of successional and demographic processes, along with mortality driven by abiotic factors, continue to affect the stand, with significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS and the sustainable management of regional forests.

  3. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  4. Defining old growth for fire-adapted forests of the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill R. Kaufmann; Daniel Binkley; Peter Z. Fule; Johnson Marlin; Scott L. Stephens; Thomas W. Swetnam

    2007-01-01

    There are varying definitions of old-growth forests because of differences in environment and differing fire influence across the Intermountain West. Two general types of forests reflect the role of fire: 1) forests shaped by natural changes in structure and species makeup-plant succession-that are driven by competitive differences among species and individual trees...

  5. Measuring and modelling forest transpiration

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šír, Miloslav; Čermák, J.; Naděždina, N.; Pražák, Josef; Tesař, Miroslav

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 4, - (2008), č. 012050 ISSN 1755-1315. [Conference of the Danubian Countries on the Hydrological Forecasting and Hydrological Bases of Water Management /24./. Bled, 02.06.2008-04.06.2008] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/06/0375; GA ČR GA205/08/1174; GA ČR GA526/08/1016; GA MŠk MEB0808114; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07; GA AV ČR 1QS200420562 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510; CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : plant transpiration * SAP flow * floodplain forest Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology

  6. Ecological modeling for forest management in the Shawnee National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard G. Thurau; J.F. Fralish; S. Hupe; B. Fitch; A.D. Carver

    2008-01-01

    Land managers of the Shawnee National Forest in southern Illinois are challenged to meet the needs of a diverse populace of stakeholders. By classifying National Forest holdings into management units, U.S. Forest Service personnel can spatially allocate resources and services to meet local management objectives. Ecological Classification Systems predict ecological site...

  7. Modeling the effects of forest management on in situ and ex situ longleaf pine forest carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    C.A. Gonzalez-Benecke; L.J. Samuelson; T.A. Martin; W.P. Cropper Jr; Kurt Johnsen; T.A. Stokes; John Butnor; P.H. Anderson

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of forest carbon storage dynamics requires a variety of techniques including simulation models. We developed a hybrid model to assess the effects of silvicultural management systems on carbon (C) budgets in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) plantations in the southeastern U.S. To simulate in situ C pools, the model integrates a growth and yield model...

  8. Acting Locally: A Guide to Model, Community and Demonstration Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, Debbie Pella

    1993-01-01

    Describes Canada's efforts in sustainable forestry, which refers to management practices that ensure long-term health of forest ecosystems so that they can continue to provide environmental, social, and economic benefits. Describes model forests, community forests, and demonstration forests and lists contacts for each of the projects. (KS)

  9. Structure and Composition of Old-Growth and Unmanaged Second-Growth Riparian Forests at Redwood National Park, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher R. Keyes

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Restoration of second-growth riparian stands has become an important issue for managers of redwood (Sequoia sempervirens [D. Don] Endl. forest reserves. Identifying differences between old-growth and second-growth forest vegetation is a necessary step in evaluating restoration needs and targets. The objective of this study was to characterize and contrast vegetation structure and composition in old-growth and unmanaged second-growth riparian forests in adjacent, geomorphologically similar watersheds at Redwood National Park. In the old-growth, redwood was the dominant overstory species in terms of stem density, basal area, and importance values. Second-growth was dominated by red alder (Alnus rubra Bong., Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirbel] Franco, and redwood. Understory species were similar in both forests, with several key differences: Oxalis oregana Nutt. and Trillium ovatum Pursh had greater importance values in the old-growth, and Vaccinium parvifolium Sm., Dryopteris spp. and sedges Carex spp. had greater importance values in the second-growth. Notable differences in structure and composition suggest that restoration practices such as thinning could expedite the acquisition of old-growth characteristics in second-growth riparian forests.

  10. The contribution of competition to tree mortality in old-growth coniferous forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, A.; Battles, J.; Stephenson, N.L.; van Mantgem, P.J.

    2011-01-01

    Competition is a well-documented contributor to tree mortality in temperate forests, with numerous studies documenting a relationship between tree death and the competitive environment. Models frequently rely on competition as the only non-random mechanism affecting tree mortality. However, for mature forests, competition may cease to be the primary driver of mortality.We use a large, long-term dataset to study the importance of competition in determining tree mortality in old-growth forests on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S.A. We make use of the comparative spatial configuration of dead and live trees, changes in tree spatial pattern through time, and field assessments of contributors to an individual tree's death to quantify competitive effects.Competition was apparently a significant contributor to tree mortality in these forests. Trees that died tended to be in more competitive environments than trees that survived, and suppression frequently appeared as a factor contributing to mortality. On the other hand, based on spatial pattern analyses, only three of 14 plots demonstrated compelling evidence that competition was dominating mortality. Most of the rest of the plots fell within the expectation for random mortality, and three fit neither the random nor the competition model. These results suggest that while competition is often playing a significant role in tree mortality processes in these forests it only infrequently governs those processes. In addition, the field assessments indicated a substantial presence of biotic mortality agents in trees that died.While competition is almost certainly important, demographics in these forests cannot accurately be characterized without a better grasp of other mortality processes. In particular, we likely need a better understanding of biotic agents and their interactions with one another and with competition. ?? 2011.

  11. Secondary forest regeneration benefits old-growth specialist bats in a fragmented tropical landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Ricardo; Ovaskainen, Otso; López-Baucells, Adrià; Farneda, Fábio Z; Sampaio, Erica M; Bobrowiec, Paulo E D; Cabeza, Mar; Palmeirim, Jorge M; Meyer, Christoph F J

    2018-02-28

    Tropical forest loss and fragmentation are due to increase in coming decades. Understanding how matrix dynamics, especially secondary forest regrowth, can lessen fragmentation impacts is key to understanding species persistence in modified landscapes. Here, we use a whole-ecosystem fragmentation experiment to investigate how bat assemblages are influenced by the regeneration of the secondary forest matrix. We surveyed bats in continuous forest, forest fragments and secondary forest matrix habitats, ~15 and ~30 years after forest clearance, to investigate temporal changes in the occupancy and abundance of old-growth specialist and habitat generalist species. The regeneration of the second growth matrix had overall positive effects on the occupancy and abundance of specialists across all sampled habitats. Conversely, effects on generalist species were negligible for forest fragments and negative for secondary forest. Our results show that the conservation potential of secondary forests for reverting faunal declines in fragmented tropical landscapes increases with secondary forest age and that old-growth specialists, which are often of most conservation concern, are the greatest beneficiaries of secondary forest maturation. Our findings emphasize that the transposition of patterns of biodiversity persistence in island ecosystems to fragmented terrestrial settings can be hampered by the dynamic nature of human-dominated landscapes.

  12. Diameter growth performance of tree functional groups in Puerto Rican secondary tropical forests

    OpenAIRE

    Adame, Patricia; Brandeis, Thomas J; Uriarte, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Aim of study: Understanding the factors that control tree growth in successional stands is particularly important for quantifying the carbon sequestration potential and timber yield of secondary tropical forests. Understanding the factors that control tree growth in successional stands is particularly important for quantifying the carbon sequestration potential and timber yield of secondary tropical forests. Yet, the high species diversity of mixed tropical forests, including many uncommon sp...

  13. Allometry and growth of six tree species in a terra firme forest in colombian amazonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraldo Pamplona Wilson A; Dairon, Alvaro; Cardenas Montoya J, Duque

    2011-01-01

    In this study carried out in the Amacayacu National Park in the Colombian Amazonia, we assessed the allometric relationship among different tree structural variables and the growth in diameter and biomass of six species classified according to their wood specific gravity. The tree species chosen were Eschweilera rufolia, Eschweilera itayensis, Conceveiba guianensis, Otoba parvifolia, Pseudolmedia laevis, and Apeiba aspera. The dbh was the most important structural explanatory variable. Regarding the total height dbh model, the allometric coefficient b changed between species showing a trend to increase, and thus a taper decrease, proportional to. There were o significant differences in diameter growth between species (P=0.119, F=1.80) or functional groups (P=0.153, F= 1.19). Likewise, biomass growth did not show significant differences neither between species (P=0.0784, F=2.05) nor functional groups (P=0.0711, F=2.71). However, there was a positive trend between and diameter growth and a negative one between and biomass growth. The results of this study suggest that this forest is recovering in biomass at a constant rate independent of the patch age, which emphasizes on the importance of pioneer species and gap formation on the carbon dynamics and the species coexistence in Amazonian tierra firme forests.

  14. impact of re-forestation of a re-growth secondary forest with

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BIG TIMMY

    In general, the forest stand had more density of trees in each dbh class with a peak in .... Awolowo University Estate, Ile-Ife, Osun state, ... forest sub-type is dry deciduous forest (Onochie, ..... eastern Cascades, USA. .... Agriculture, Washington.

  15. Abiotic and Biotic Soil Characteristics in Old Growth Forests and Thinned or Unthinned Mature Stands in Three Regions of Oregon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Perry

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We compared forest floor depth, soil organic matter, soil moisture, anaerobic mineralizable nitrogen (a measure of microbial biomass, denitrification potential, and soil/litter arthropod communities among old growth, unthinned mature stands, and thinned mature stands at nine sites (each with all three stand types distributed among three regions of Oregon. Mineral soil measurements were restricted to the top 10 cm. Data were analyzed with both multivariate and univariate analyses of variance. Multivariate analyses were conducted with and without soil mesofauna or forest floor mesofauna, as data for those taxa were not collected on some sites. In multivariate analysis with soil mesofauna, the model giving the strongest separation among stand types (P = 0.019 included abundance and richness of soil mesofauna and anaerobic mineralizable nitrogen. The best model with forest floor mesofauna (P = 0.010 included anaerobic mineralizable nitrogen, soil moisture content, and richness of forest floor mesofauna. Old growth had the highest mean values for all variables, and in both models differed significantly from mature stands, while the latter did not differ. Old growth also averaged higher percent soil organic matter, and analysis including that variable was significant but not as strong as without it. Results of the multivariate analyses were mostly supported by univariate analyses, but there were some differences. In univariate analysis, the difference in percent soil organic matter between old growth and thinned mature was due to a single site in which the old growth had exceptionally high soil organic matter; without that site, percent soil organic matter did not differ between old growth and thinned mature, and a multivariate model containing soil organic matter was not statistically significant. In univariate analyses soil mesofauna had to be compared nonparametrically (because of heavy left-tails and differed only in the Siskiyou Mountains, where

  16. Soil moisture and its role in growth-climate relationships across an aridity gradient in semiarid Pinus halepensis forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manrique-Alba, Àngela; Ruiz-Yanetti, Samantha; Moutahir, Hassane; Novak, Klemen; De Luis, Martin; Bellot, Juan

    2017-01-01

    In Mediterranean areas with limited availability of water, an accurate knowledge of growth response to hydrological variables could contribute to improving management and stability of forest resources. The main goal of this study is to assess the temporal dynamic of soil moisture to better understand the water-growth relationship of Pinus halepensis forests in semiarid areas. The estimates of modelled soil moisture and measured tree growth were used at four sites dominated by afforested Pinus halepensis Mill. in south-eastern Spain with 300 to 609mm mean annual precipitation. Firstly, dendrochronological samples were extracted and the widths of annual tree rings were measured to compute basal area increments (BAI). Secondly, soil moisture was estimated over 20 hydrological years (1992-2012) by means of the HYDROBAL ecohydrological model. Finally, the tree growth was linked, to mean monthly and seasonal temperature, precipitation and soil moisture. Results depict the effect of soil moisture on growth (BAI) and explain 69-73% of the variance in semiarid forests, but only 51% in the subhumid forests. This highlights the fact that that soil moisture is a suitable and promising variable to explain growth variations of afforested Pinus halepensis in semiarid conditions and useful for guiding adaptation plans to respond pro-actively to water-related global challenges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Responses of Tree Growths to Tree Size, Competition, and Topographic Conditions in Sierra Nevada Forests Using Bi-temporal Airborne LiDAR Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Q.; Su, Y.; Tao, S.; Guo, Q.

    2016-12-01

    Trees in the Sierra Nevada (SN) forests are experiencing rapid changes due to human disturbances and climatic changes. An improved monitoring of tree growth and understanding of how tree growth responses to different impact factors, such as tree competition, forest density, topographic and hydrologic conditions, are urgently needed in tree growth modeling. Traditional tree growth modeling mainly relied on field survey, which was highly time-consuming and labor-intensive. Airborne Light detection and ranging System (ALS) is increasingly used in forest survey, due to its high efficiency and accuracy in three-dimensional tree structure delineation and terrain characterization. This study successfully detected individual tree growth in height (ΔH), crown area (ΔA), and crown volume (ΔV) over a five-year period (2007-2012) using bi-temporal ALS data in two conifer forest areas in SN. We further analyzed their responses to original tree size, competition indices, forest structure indices, and topographic environmental parameters at individual tree and forest stand scales. Our results indicated ΔH was strongly sensitive to topographic wetness index; whereas ΔA and ΔV were highly responsive to forest density and original tree sizes. These ALS based findings in ΔH were consistent with field measurements. Our study demonstrated the promising potential of using bi-temporal ALS data in forest growth measurements and analysis. A more comprehensive study over a longer temporal period and a wider range of forest stands would give better insights into tree growth in the SN, and provide useful guides for forest growth monitoring, modeling, and management.

  18. Forest structure, stand composition, and climate-growth response in montane forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark W Schwartz

    Full Text Available Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1 whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2 if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3 how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20(th century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.

  19. Compact cluster growth on the half-plane: forest fires in a valley

    CERN Document Server

    Kearney, M J

    2003-01-01

    A two-parameter model on a directed lattice is introduced to represent the growth and spread of clusters on the half-plane. The model exhibits a phase transition in the compact directed percolation universality class between a state where clusters are finite with probability one and a state where clusters are infinite with non-zero probability. In the finite regime, exact expressions are given for the mean perimeter length and area of the generated clusters for a variety of different boundary conditions. An illustrative example is considered, namely a forest fire spreading before a prevailing wind along the floor and sides of an idealized valley.

  20. Exploring component-based approaches in forest landscape modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. S. He; D. R. Larsen; D. J. Mladenoff

    2002-01-01

    Forest management issues are increasingly required to be addressed in a spatial context, which has led to the development of spatially explicit forest landscape models. The numerous processes, complex spatial interactions, and diverse applications in spatial modeling make the development of forest landscape models difficult for any single research group. New...

  1. Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

    2002-01-01

    Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

  2. Consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on wood and forests: An application of the Global Forest Products Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buongiorno, J.; Raunikar, R.; Zhu, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to project the consequences for the global forest sector of doubling the rate of growth of bioenergy demand relative to a base scenario, other drivers being maintained constant. The results showed that this would lead to the convergence of the price of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, raising the price of industrial roundwood by nearly 30% in 2030. The price of sawnwood and panels would be 15% higher. The price of paper would be 3% higher. Concurrently, the demand for all manufactured wood products would be lower in all countries, but the production would rise in countries with competitive advantage. The global value added in wood processing industries would be 1% lower in 2030. The forest stock would be 2% lower for the world and 4% lower for Asia. These effects varied substantially by country. ?? 2011 Department of Forest Economics, SLU Ume??, Sweden.

  3. Mapping forest structure, species gradients and growth in an urban area using lidar and hyperspectral imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Huan

    Urban forests play an important role in the urban ecosystem by providing a range of ecosystem services. Characterization of forest structure, species variation and growth in urban forests is critical for understanding the status, function and process of urban ecosystems, and helping maximize the benefits of urban ecosystems through management. The development of methods and applications to quantify urban forests using remote sensing data has lagged the study of natural forests due to the heterogeneity and complexity of urban ecosystems. In this dissertation, I quantify and map forest structure, species gradients and forest growth in an urban area using discrete-return lidar, airborne imaging spectroscopy and thermal infrared data. Specific objectives are: (1) to demonstrate the utility of leaf-off lidar originally collected for topographic mapping to characterize and map forest structure and associated uncertainties, including aboveground biomass, basal area, diameter, height and crown size; (2) to map species gradients using forest structural variables estimated from lidar and foliar functional traits, vegetation indices derived from AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery in conjunction with field-measured species data; and (3) to identify factors related to relative growth rates in aboveground biomass in the urban forests, and assess forest growth patterns across areas with varying degree of human interactions. The findings from this dissertation are: (1) leaf-off lidar originally acquired for topographic mapping provides a robust, potentially low-cost approach to quantify spatial patterns of forest structure and carbon stock in urban areas; (2) foliar functional traits and vegetation indices from hyperspectral data capture gradients of species distributions in the heterogeneous urban landscape; (3) species gradients, stand structure, foliar functional traits and temperature are strongly related to forest growth in the urban forests; and (4) high uncertainties in our

  4. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  5. Population differentiation in tree-ring growth response of white fir (Abies concolor) to climate: Implications for predicting forest responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Deborah Bowne [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1993-01-01

    Forest succession models and correlative models have predicted 200--650 kilometer shifts in the geographic range of temperate forests and forest species as one response to global climate change. Few studies have investigated whether population differences may effect the response of forest species to climate change. This study examines differences in tree-ring growth, and in the phenotypic plasticity of tree-ring growth in 16-year old white fir, Abies concolor, from ten populations grown in four common gardens in the Sierra Nevada of California. For each population, tree-ring growth was modelled as a function of precipitation and degree-day sums. Tree-ring growth under three scenarios of doubled CO2 climates was estimated.

  6. Structure and development of old-growth, unmanaged second-growth, and extended rotation Pinus resinosa forests in Minnesota, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silver, Emily J.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.; Bradford, John B.

    2013-01-01

    The structure and developmental dynamics of old-growth forests often serve as important baselines for restoration prescriptions aimed at promoting more complex structural conditions in managed forest landscapes. Nonetheless, long-term information on natural patterns of development is rare for many commercially important and ecologically widespread forest types. Moreover, the effectiveness of approaches recommended for restoring old-growth structural conditions to managed forests, such as the application of extended rotation forestry, has been little studied. This study uses several long-term datasets from old growth, extended rotation, and unmanaged second growth Pinus resinosa (red pine) forests in northern Minnesota, USA, to quantify the range of variation in structural conditions for this forest type and to evaluate the effectiveness of extended rotation forestry at promoting the development of late-successional structural conditions. Long-term tree population data from permanent plots for one of the old-growth stands and the extended rotation stands (87 and 61 years, respectively) also allowed for an examination of the long-term structural dynamics of these systems. Old-growth forests were more structurally complex than unmanaged second-growth and extended rotation red pine stands, due in large part to the significantly higher volumes of coarse woody debris (70.7 vs. 11.5 and 4.7 m3/ha, respectively) and higher snag basal area (6.9 vs. 2.9 and 0.5 m2/ha, respectively). In addition, old-growth forests, although red pine-dominated, contained a greater abundance of other species, including Pinus strobus, Abies balsamea, and Picea glauca relative to the other stand types examined. These differences between stand types largely reflect historic gap-scale disturbances within the old-growth systems and their corresponding structural and compositional legacies. Nonetheless, extended rotation thinning treatments, by accelerating advancement to larger tree diameter

  7. Stochastic models for tumoral growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero, Carlos

    2006-02-01

    Strong experimental evidence has indicated that tumor growth belongs to the molecular beam epitaxy universality class. This type of growth is characterized by the constraint of cell proliferation to the tumor border and the surface diffusion of cells at the growing edge. Tumor growth is thus conceived as a competition for space between the tumor and the host, and cell diffusion at the tumor border is an optimal strategy adopted for minimizing the pressure and helping tumor development. Two stochastic partial differential equations are reported in this paper in order to correctly model the physical properties of tumoral growth in (1+1) and (2+1) dimensions. The advantage of these models is that they reproduce the correct geometry of the tumor and are defined in terms of polar variables. An analysis of these models allows us to quantitatively estimate the response of the tumor to an unfavorable perturbation during growth.

  8. Towards Sustainable Growth Business Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamp-Roelands, N.; Balkenende, J.P.; Van Ommen, P.

    2012-03-15

    The Dutch Sustainable Growth Coalition (DSGC) has the following objectives: The DSGC aims to pro-actively drive sustainable growth business models along three lines: (1) Shape. DSGC member companies aim to connect economic profitability with environmental and social progress on the basis of integrated sustainable growth business models; (2) Share. DSGC member companies aim for joint advocacy of sustainable growth business models both internationally and nationally; and (3) Stimulate. DSGC member companies aim to stimulate and influence the policy debate on enabling sustainable growth - with a view to finding solutions to the environmental and social challenges we are facing. This is their first report. The vision, actions and mission of DSGC are documented in the Manifesto in Chapter 2 of this publication. Chapter 3 contains an overview of key features of an integrated sustainable growth business model and the roadmap towards such a model. In Chapter 4, project examples of DSGC members are presented, providing insight into the hands-on reality of implementing the good practices. Chapter 5 offers an overview of how the Netherlands provides an enabling environment for sustainable growth business models. Chapter 6 offers the key conclusions.

  9. The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaehle, Sönke; Sitch, Stephen; Prentice, I Colin; Liski, Jari; Cramer, Wolfgang; Erhard, Markus; Hickler, Thomas; Smith, Benjamin

    2006-08-01

    We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.

  10. Modelling tropical forests response to logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; Di Paola, Arianna; Valentini, Riccardo; Paparella, Francesco

    2013-04-01

    Tropical rainforests are among the most threatened ecosystems by large-scale fragmentation due to human activity such as heavy logging and agricultural clearance. Although, they provide crucial ecosystem goods and services, such as sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, protecting watersheds and conserving biodiversity. In several countries forest resource extraction has experienced a shift from clearcutting to selective logging to maintain a significant forest cover and understock of living biomass. However the knowledge on the short and long-term effects of removing selected species in tropical rainforest are scarce and need to be further investigated. One of the main effects of selective logging on forest dynamics seems to be the local disturbance which involve the invasion of open space by weed, vines and climbers at the expense of the late-successional state cenosis. We present a simple deterministic model that describes the dynamics of tropical rainforest subject to selective logging to understand how and why weeds displace native species. We argue that the selective removal of tallest tropical trees carries out gaps of light that allow weeds, vines and climbers to prevail on native species, inhibiting the possibility of recovery of the original vegetation. Our results show that different regime shifts may occur depending on the type of forest management adopted. This hypothesis is supported by a dataset of trees height and weed/vines cover that we collected from 9 plots located in Central and West Africa both in untouched and managed areas.

  11. Who is the new sheriff in town regulating boreal forest growth?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park Williams, A.; Xu, Chonggang; McDowell, Nate G.

    2011-12-01

    answer these questions, it is critical to understand the factors influencing boreal forest growth under warmer conditions and how the relative contributions of these factors vary spatially. Our understanding of these factors can be improved through research campaigns that integrate field-measurements, remote sensing and ecological modeling (Goetz et al 2011). Field-studies that measure the physiological responses of trees to manipulations of environmental variables such as temperature, soil moisture, soil nutrients and insolation are critical for informing ecological models that predict forest responses to various scenarios of climate and environmental change. Remote sensing is critical in validating modeled projections of forest growth. At present, ecological models do poorly at characterizing observed trends in boreal-forest productivity in some regions (Beck et al 2011). It will be exciting in the coming years to see how field measurements, modeling and remote sensing can work together to resolve the mysteries of the divergence problem, how warming will influence the overall productivity and distribution of boreal forests, and how changes in boreal-forest characteristics may influence regional and global climates. References Allen C D et al 2010 A global overview of drought and head-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests Forest Ecol. Manag. 259 660-84 Andreu-Hayles L, D'Arrigo R, Anchukaitis K J, Beck P S A, Frank D and Goetz S 2011 Varying boreal forest response to Arctic environmental change at the Firth River, Alaska Environ. Res. Lett. 6 045503 Barber V A, Juday G P and Finney B P 2000 Reduced growth of Alaskan white spruce in the twentieth century from temperature-induced drought stress Nature 405 668-73 Beck P S A and Goetz S J 2011 Satellite observations of high northern latitude vegetation productivity changes between 1982 and 2008: ecological variability and regional differences Environ. Res. Lett. 6 045501 Beck P S A, Juday

  12. Longleaf pine forests and woodlands: old growth under fire!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joan L. Walker

    1999-01-01

    The author discusses a once widespread forest type of the Southeast – longleaf pine dominated forests and woodlands. This system depends on fire – more or less frequent, and often of low intensity. Because human-mediated landscape fragmentation has drastically changed the behavior of fire on longleaf pine dominated landscapes, these forests and woodlands will never be...

  13. Growth process and diameter structure of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2009-10-19

    Oct 19, 2009 ... and sunny slope Pinus tabulaeformis forest were investigated in hilly loess-gully ... tabulaeformis, the main species of tree for forestation, ... Biomass in different artificial P. tabulaformis stands ..... The change of plant diversity during natural ... elements and stand biomass in forest communities in Hilly Loess.

  14. Imagining Future Forests: What Models Can Learn from Field Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, E. J.; Domec, J. C.; Laviner, M. A.; Fox, T. D.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.; King, J.; Noormets, A.

    2014-12-01

    General circulation models predict that future forests in the U.S. Southeast will experience higher temperatures and more variable precipitation in the future, resulting in a moderate decrease in water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration), though considerable uncertainty in and disagreement between projections remain. The Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation Project (PINEMAP) represents an effort to understand the future of 20 million acres of planted pine forests managed by private landowners in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal states. Decades of productivity research on loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) has led to a widespread practice of mid-rotation fertilization of loblolly plantations, supplying additional nutrients as stands approach canopy closure. It remains an open question what the effects of fertilization of pine forests in this region will be in the face of periodic or persistent droughts, in terms of forest water use and its implications to other water uses downstream. Therefore, we will review key results from past ecophysiological research on the responses of loblolly pine to fertilization, elevated CO2 and water availability, as well as a recent PINEMAP field trial of fertilization and drought imposed through rainfall displacement over two growing seasons. Despite high rainfall in 2013 (1224 mm compared an average 1120 mm) and a lack of leaf area response, transpiration decreased in response to fertilization and through rainfall displacement. Treatment differences were greatest in the growing season of 2013, when transpiration was on average 13.6, 20.2 and 28.7% lower in the rainfall displacement, fertilization and combined treatment than the control (46 mm/month), respectively. We will conclude by reviewing the important lessons from this research for regional models of future forests in this region in terms of LAI, transpiration, growth and water use efficiency.

  15. Calibrating and testing a gap model for simulating forest management in the Oregon Coast Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabst, R.J.; Goslin, M.N.; Garman, S.L.; Spies, T.A.

    2008-01-01

    The complex mix of economic and ecological objectives facing today's forest managers necessitates the development of growth models with a capacity for simulating a wide range of forest conditions while producing outputs useful for economic analyses. We calibrated the gap model ZELIG to simulate stand-level forest development in the Oregon Coast Range as part of a landscape-scale assessment of different forest management strategies. Our goal was to incorporate the predictive ability of an empirical model with the flexibility of a forest succession model. We emphasized the development of commercial-aged stands of Douglas-fir, the dominant tree species in the study area and primary source of timber. In addition, we judged that the ecological approach of ZELIG would be robust to the variety of other forest conditions and practices encountered in the Coast Range, including mixed-species stands, small-scale gap formation, innovative silvicultural methods, and reserve areas where forests grow unmanaged for long periods of time. We parameterized the model to distinguish forest development among two ecoregions, three forest types and two site productivity classes using three data sources: chronosequences of forest inventory data, long-term research data, and simulations from an empirical growth-and-yield model. The calibrated model was tested with independent, long-term measurements from 11 Douglas-fir plots (6 unthinned, 5 thinned), 3 spruce-hemlock plots, and 1 red alder plot. ZELIG closely approximated developmental trajectories of basal area and large trees in the Douglas-fir plots. Differences between simulated and observed conifer basal area for these plots ranged from -2.6 to 2.4 m2/ha; differences in the number of trees/ha ???50 cm dbh ranged from -8.8 to 7.3 tph. Achieving these results required the use of a diameter-growth multiplier, suggesting some underlying constraints on tree growth such as the temperature response function. ZELIG also tended to overestimate

  16. Spatial aspects of tree mortality strongly differ between young and old-growth forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Andrew J; Lutz, James A; Donato, Daniel C; Freund, James A; Swanson, Mark E; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Sprugel, Douglas G; Franklin, Jerry F

    2015-11-01

    Rates and spatial patterns of tree mortality are predicted to change during forest structural development. In young forests, mortality should be primarily density dependent due to competition for light, leading to an increasingly spatially uniform pattern of surviving trees. In contrast, mortality in old-growth forests should be primarily caused by contagious and spatially autocorrelated agents (e.g., insects, wind), causing spatial aggregation of surviving trees to increase through time. We tested these predictions by contrasting a three-decade record of tree mortality from replicated mapped permanent plots located in young (old) and old-growth (> 300-year-old) Abies amabilis forests. Trees in young forests died at a rate of 4.42% per year, whereas trees in old-growth forests died at 0.60% per year. Tree mortality in young forests was significantly aggregated, strongly density dependent, and caused live tree patterns to become more uniform through time. Mortality in old-growth forests was spatially aggregated, but was density independent and did not change the spatial pattern of surviving trees. These results extend current theory by demonstrating that density-dependent competitive mortality leading to increasingly uniform tree spacing in young forests ultimately transitions late in succession to a more diverse tree mortality regime that maintains spatial heterogeneity through time.

  17. Preliminary Survey on TRY Forest Traits and Growth Index Relations - New Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyubenova, Mariyana; Kattge, Jens; van Bodegom, Peter; Chikalanov, Alexandre; Popova, Silvia; Zlateva, Plamena; Peteva, Simona

    2016-04-01

    Forest ecosystems provide critical ecosystem goods and services, including food, fodder, water, shelter, nutrient cycling, and cultural and recreational value. Forests also store carbon, provide habitat for a wide range of species and help alleviate land degradation and desertification. Thus they have a potentially significant role to play in climate change adaptation planning through maintaining ecosystem services and providing livelihood options. Therefore the study of forest traits is such an important issue not just for individual countries but for the planet as a whole. We need to know what functional relations between forest traits exactly can express TRY data base and haw it will be significant for the global modeling and IPBES. The study of the biodiversity characteristics at all levels and functional links between them is extremely important for the selection of key indicators for assessing biodiversity and ecosystem services for sustainable natural capital control. By comparing the available information in tree data bases: TRY, ITR (International Tree Ring) and SP-PAM the 42 tree species are selected for the traits analyses. The dependence between location characteristics (latitude, longitude, altitude, annual precipitation, annual temperature and soil type) and forest traits (specific leaf area, leaf weight ratio, wood density and growth index) is studied by by multiply regression analyses (RDA) using the statistical software package Canoco 4.5. The Pearson correlation coefficient (measure of linear correlation), Kendal rank correlation coefficient (non parametric measure of statistical dependence) and Spearman correlation coefficient (monotonic function relationship between two variables) are calculated for each pair of variables (indexes) and species. After analysis of above mentioned correlation coefficients the dimensional linear regression models, multidimensional linear and nonlinear regression models and multidimensional neural networks models are

  18. Arthropod Diversity and Functional Importance in Old-Growth Forests of North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Schowalter

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Old-growth forests have become rare in North America but provide habitat for unique assemblages of species that often are rare in younger forests. Insects and related arthropods reach their highest diversity in old-growth forests because of their stable moderate temperature and relative humidity and the rich variety of resources represented by high plant species richness and structural complexity. Old-growth arthropod assemblages typically are distinct from those in younger, managed forests. Major subcommunities include the arboreal community that is composed of a rich assemblage of herbivores, fungivores, and their associated predators and parasitoids that function to regulate primary production and nutrient fluxes, the stem zone community that includes bark- and wood-boring species and their associated predators and parasitoids that initiate the decomposition of coarse woody debris, and the forest floor community composed of a variety of detritivores, fungivores, burrowers, and their associated predators and parasitoids that are instrumental in litter decomposition. Insect outbreaks are relatively rare in old-growth forests, where the diversity of resources and predators limit population growth. In turn, insects contribute to plant diversity and limit primary production of host plant species, thereby promoting development of old-growth forest characteristics. Arthropods also provide important functions in decomposition and nutrient cycling that may be lost in younger, managed forests with limited provision of coarse woody debris and accumulated litter. Protection of remnant old-growth forests within the forest matrix may be particularly valuable for maintaining the diversity of plant and arthropod predators that can minimize outbreaks, thereby contributing to resilience to changing environmental conditions.

  19. Supply chain modeling of forest fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunnarsson, Helene; Lundgren, Jan T.; Roennqvist, Mikael

    2001-04-01

    We study the problem of deciding when and where forest residues are to be converted into forest fuel, and how the residues are to be transported and stored in order to satisfy demand at heating plants. Decisions also include whether or not additional harvest areas and saw-mills are to be contracted. In addition, we consider the flow of products from saw-mills and import harbors, and address the question about which terminals to use. The planning horizon is one year and monthly time periods are considered. The supply chain problem is formulated as a large mixed integer linear programming model. In order to obtain solutions within reasonable time we have developed a heuristic solution approach. Computational results from a large Swedish supplying entrepreneur are reported.

  20. Supply chain modeling of forest fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunnarsson, Helene; Lundgren, Jan T.; Roennqvist, Mikael

    2001-04-01

    We study the problem of deciding when and where forest residues are to be converted into forest fuel, and how the residues are to be transported and stored in order to satisfy demand at heating plants. Decisions also include whether or not additional harvest areas and saw-mills are to be contracted. In addition, we consider the flow of products from saw-mills and import harbors, and address the question about which terminals to use. The planning horizon is one year and monthly time periods are considered. The supply chain problem is formulated as a large mixed integer linear programming model. In order to obtain solutions within reasonable time we have developed a heuristic solution approach. Computational results from a large Swedish supplying entrepreneur are reported

  1. A Matrix Transition Model for an Uneven-Aged, Oak-Hickory Forest in the Missouri Ozark Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    James R. Lootens; David R. Larsen; Edward F. Loewenstein

    1999-01-01

    We present a matrix growth model for an uneven-aged, oak-hickory forest in the Ozark Highlands of Missouri. The model was developed to predict ingrowth, growth of surviving trees, and mortality by diameter class for a five-year period. Tree removal from management activities is accounted for in the model. We evaluated a progression of models from a static, fixed-...

  2. Allometric growth and allocation in forests: a perspective from FLUXNET.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Adam; Field, Christopher B; Berry, Joseph A

    2011-07-01

    To develop a scheme for partitioning the products of photosynthesis toward different biomass components in land-surface models, a database on component mass and net primary productivity (NPP), collected from FLUXNET sites, was examined to determine allometric patterns of allocation. We found that NPP per individual of foliage (Gfol), stem and branches (Gstem), coarse roots (Gcroot) and fine roots (Gfroot) in individual trees is largely explained (r2 = 67-91%) by the magnitude of total NPP per individual (G). Gfol scales with G isometrically, meaning it is a fixed fraction of G ( 25%). Root-shoot trade-offs were manifest as a slow decline in Gfroot, as a fraction of G, from 50% to 25% as stands increased in biomass, with Gstem and Gcroot increasing as a consequence. These results indicate that a functional trade-off between aboveground and belowground allocation is essentially captured by variations in G, which itself is largely governed by stand biomass and only secondarily by site-specific resource availability. We argue that forests are characterized by strong competition for light, observed as a race for individual trees to ascend by increasing partitioning toward wood, rather than by growing more leaves, and that this competition stronglyconstrains the allocational plasticity that trees may be capable of. The residual variation in partitioning was not related to climatic or edaphic factors, nor did plots with nutrient or water additions show a pattern of partitioning distinct from that predicted by G alone. These findings leverage short-term process studies of the terrestrial carbon cycle to improve decade-scale predictions of biomass accumulation in forests. An algorithm for calculating partitioning in land-surface models is presented.

  3. Modelling growth and water use in four Pinus patula stands with the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Existing prediction models do not take sufficient stand and site detail into account to usefully predict water use patterns on a scale that is practical to forest managers. Several relatively simple simulation models based on the major physiological processes behind growth and water use of forest stands have emerged recently, ...

  4. Gap Dynamics and Structure of Two Old-Growth Beech Forest Remnants in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugani, Tihomir; Diaci, Jurij; Hladnik, David

    2013-01-01

    Context Due to a long history of intensive forest exploitation, few European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) old-growth forests have been preserved in Europe. Material and Methods We studied two beech forest reserves in southern Slovenia. We examined the structural characteristics of the two forest reserves based on data from sample plots and complete inventory obtained from four previous forest management plans. To gain a better understanding of disturbance dynamics, we used aerial imagery to study the characteristics of canopy gaps over an 11-year period in the Kopa forest reserve and a 20-year period in the Gorjanci forest reserve. Results The results suggest that these forests are structurally heterogeneous over small spatial scales. Gap size analysis showed that gaps smaller than 500 m2 are the dominant driving force of stand development. The percentage of forest area in canopy gaps ranged from 3.2 to 4.5% in the Kopa forest reserve and from 9.1 to 10.6% in the Gorjanci forest reserve. These forests exhibit relatively high annual rates of coverage by newly established (0.15 and 0.25%) and closed (0.08 and 0.16%) canopy gaps. New gap formation is dependant on senescent trees located throughout the reserve. Conclusion We conclude that these stands are not even-sized, but rather unevenly structured. This is due to the fact that the disturbance regime is characterized by low intensity, small-scale disturbances. PMID:23308115

  5. Atmosphere composition changes, solar irradiance variations, and changing forest tree growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chalupa, V.

    1997-01-01

    The paper deals with changes in the Earth's atmosphere composition, which greatly influence the growth and health condition of forests. Impacts of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols on future climate changes are assessed. In the past forty years increasing assimilation of CO2 by forests growing in temperature and boreal zones in the Northern Hemisphere was observed. Increasing trends in diameter, height and volume growth of forest trees were found in the Central, Western and Northern Europe. Causes of higher increments are not exactly known, however, the results of present measurements indicate that higher air temperature, nitrogen deposition in forest soils and raising atmospheric CO2 concentration participated in increased growth of forests

  6. Assessing biomass accumulation in second growth forests of Puerto Rico using airborne lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinuzzi, S.; Cook, B.; Corp, L. A.; Morton, D. C.; Helmer, E.; Keller, M.

    2017-12-01

    Degraded and second growth tropical forests provide important ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration and soil stabilization. Lidar data measure the three-dimensional structure of forest canopies and are commonly used to quantify aboveground biomass in temperate forest landscapes. However, the ability of lidar data to quantify second growth forest biomass in complex, tropical landscapes is less understood. Our goal was to evaluate the use of airborne lidar data to quantify aboveground biomass in a complex tropical landscape, the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico provides an ideal place for studying biomass accumulation because of the abundance of second growth forests in different stages of recovery, and the high ecological heterogeneity. Puerto Rico was almost entirely deforested for agriculture until the 1930s. Thereafter, agricultural abandonment resulted in a mosaic of second growth forests that have recovered naturally under different types of climate, land use, topography, and soil fertility. We integrated forest plot data from the US Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program with recent lidar data from NASA Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) airborne imager to quantify forest biomass across the island's landscape. The G-LiHT data consisted on targeted acquisitions over the FIA plots and other forested areas representing the environmental heterogeneity of the island. To fully assess the potential of the lidar data, we compared the ability of lidar-derived canopy metrics to quantify biomass alone, and in combination with intensity and topographic metrics. The results presented here are a key step for improving our understanding of the patterns and drivers of biomass accumulation in tropical forests.

  7. Remnant trees affect species composition but not structure of tropical second-growth forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandor, Manette E; Chazdon, Robin L

    2014-01-01

    Remnant trees, spared from cutting when tropical forests are cleared for agriculture or grazing, act as nuclei of forest regeneration following field abandonment. Previous studies on remnant trees were primarily conducted in active pasture or old fields abandoned in the previous 2-3 years, and focused on structure and species richness of regenerating forest, but not species composition. Our study is among the first to investigate the effects of remnant trees on neighborhood forest structure, biodiversity, and species composition 20 years post-abandonment. We compared the woody vegetation around individual remnant trees to nearby plots without remnant trees in the same second-growth forests ("control plots"). Forest structure beneath remnant trees did not differ significantly from control plots. Species richness and species diversity were significantly higher around remnant trees. The species composition around remnant trees differed significantly from control plots and more closely resembled the species composition of nearby old-growth forest. The proportion of old-growth specialists and generalists around remnant trees was significantly greater than in control plots. Although previous studies show that remnant trees may initially accelerate secondary forest growth, we found no evidence that they locally affect stem density, basal area, and seedling density at later stages of regrowth. Remnant trees do, however, have a clear effect on the species diversity, composition, and ecological groups of the surrounding woody vegetation, even after 20 years of forest regeneration. To accelerate the return of diversity and old-growth forest species into regrowing forest on abandoned land, landowners should be encouraged to retain remnant trees in agricultural or pastoral fields.

  8. Model uncertainty in growth empirics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prüfer, P.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis applies so-called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to three different economic questions substantially exposed to model uncertainty. Chapter 2 addresses a major issue of modern development economics: the analysis of the determinants of pro-poor growth (PPG), which seeks to combine high

  9. A Model of Controlled Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressan, Alberto; Lewicka, Marta

    2018-03-01

    We consider a free boundary problem for a system of PDEs, modeling the growth of a biological tissue. A morphogen, controlling volume growth, is produced by specific cells and then diffused and absorbed throughout the domain. The geometric shape of the growing tissue is determined by the instantaneous minimization of an elastic deformation energy, subject to a constraint on the volumetric growth. For an initial domain with C}^{2,α boundary, our main result establishes the local existence and uniqueness of a classical solution, up to a rigid motion.

  10. Crown dynamics and wood production of Douglas-fir trees in an old-growth forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Roaki Ishii; Stephen C. Sillett; Allyson L. Carroll

    2017-01-01

    Large trees are the most prominent structural features of old-growth forests, which are considered to be globally important carbon sinks. Because of their large size, estimates of biomass and growth of large trees are often based on ground-level measurements (e.g., diameter at breast height, DBH) and little is known about growth dynamics within the crown. As trees...

  11. Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

    2012-01-01

    1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth

  12. An Old-Growth Definition for Dry and Dry-Mesic Oak-Pine Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. White; F. Thomas. Lloyd

    1998-01-01

    Dry and dry-mesic oak-pine forests are widely distributed from New Jersey to Texas, but representative old-growth stands are rare. Historical accounts of composition, along with information from existing old-growth stands, were used to characterize this type. Shortleaf pine and white oak were the most widely distributed trees across all old-growth stands. Shortleaf was...

  13. Foliar and ecosystem respiration in an old-growth tropical rain forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molly A. Cavaleri; Steven F. Oberbauer; Michael G. Ryan

    2008-01-01

    Foliar respiration is a major component of ecosystem respiration, yet extrapolations are often uncertain in tropical forests because of indirect estimates of leaf area index (LAI).A portable tower was used to directly measure LAI and night-time foliar respiration from 52 vertical transects throughout an old-growth tropical rain forest in Costa Rica. In this study, we (...

  14. Growth decline linked to warming-induced water limitation in hemi-boreal forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuchen Wu

    Full Text Available Hemi-boreal forests, which make up the transition from temperate deciduous forests to boreal forests in southern Siberia, have experienced significant warming without any accompanying increase in precipitation during the last 80 years. This climatic change could have a profound impact on tree growth and on the stability of forest ecosystems in this region, but at present evidence for these impacts is lacking. In this study, we report a recent dramatic decline in the growth of hemi-boreal forests, based on ring width measurements from three dominant tree-species (Pinus sylvestris, Larix sibirica and Larix gmelinii, sampled from eight sites in the region. We found that regional tree growth has become increasingly limited by low soil water content in the pre- and early-growing season (from October of the previous year to July of the current year over the past 80 years. A warming-induced reduction in soil water content has also increased the climate sensitivity of these three tree species. Beginning in the mid-1980s, a clear decline in growth is evident for both the pine forests and the larch forests, although there are increasing trends in the proxy of soil water use efficiencies. Our findings are consistent with those from other parts of the world and provide valuable insights into the regional carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, and should be useful for devising adaptive forest management strategies.

  15. Growth decline linked to warming-induced water limitation in hemi-boreal forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Guo, Dali; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Badmaeva, Natalya K; Sandanov, Denis V

    2012-01-01

    Hemi-boreal forests, which make up the transition from temperate deciduous forests to boreal forests in southern Siberia, have experienced significant warming without any accompanying increase in precipitation during the last 80 years. This climatic change could have a profound impact on tree growth and on the stability of forest ecosystems in this region, but at present evidence for these impacts is lacking. In this study, we report a recent dramatic decline in the growth of hemi-boreal forests, based on ring width measurements from three dominant tree-species (Pinus sylvestris, Larix sibirica and Larix gmelinii), sampled from eight sites in the region. We found that regional tree growth has become increasingly limited by low soil water content in the pre- and early-growing season (from October of the previous year to July of the current year) over the past 80 years. A warming-induced reduction in soil water content has also increased the climate sensitivity of these three tree species. Beginning in the mid-1980s, a clear decline in growth is evident for both the pine forests and the larch forests, although there are increasing trends in the proxy of soil water use efficiencies. Our findings are consistent with those from other parts of the world and provide valuable insights into the regional carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, and should be useful for devising adaptive forest management strategies.

  16. Fine Root Growth Phenology, Production, and Turnover in a Northern Hardwood Forest Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley J. Raynal

    1994-01-01

    A large part of the nutrient flux in deciduous forests is through fine root turnover, yet this process is seldom measured. As part of a nutrient cycling study, fine root dynamics were studied for two years at Huntington Forest in the Adirondack Mountain region of New York, USA. Root growth phenology was characterized using field rhizotrons, three methods were used to...

  17. Breakage or uprooting: How tree death type affects hillslope processes in old-growth temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šamonil, Pavel; Daněk, Pavel; Adam, Dušan; Phillips, Jonathan D.

    2017-12-01

    Tree breakage and uprooting are two possible scenarios of tree death that have differing effects on hillslope processes. In this study we aimed to (i) reveal the long-term structure of the biomechanical effects of trees (BETs) in relation to their radial growth and tree death types in four old-growth temperate forests in four different elevation settings with an altitudinal gradient of 152-1105 m a.s.l., (ii) quantify affected areas and soil volumes associated with the studied BETs in reserves, and (iii) derive a general model of the role of BETs in hillslope processes in central European temperate forests. We analyzed the individual dynamics of circa 55,000 trees in an area of 161 ha within four old-growth forests over 3-4 decades. Basal tree censuses established in all sites in the 1970s and repeated tree censuses in the 1990s and 2000s provided detailed information about the radial growth of each tree of DBH ≥ 10 cm as well as about types of tree death. We focused on the quantification of: (i) surviving still-living trees, (ii) new recruits, (iii) standing dead trees, (iv) uprooted trees, and (v) broken trees. Frequencies of phenomena were related to affected areas and volumes of soil using individual statistical models. The elevation contrasts were a significant factor in the structure of BETs. Differences between sites increased from frequencies of events through affected areas to volumes of soil associated with BETs. An average 2.7 m3 ha-1 year-1 was associated with all BETs of the living and dying trees in lowlands, while there was an average of 7.8 m3 ha-1 year-1 in the highest mountain site. Differences were caused mainly by the effects of dying trees. BETs associated with dead trees were 7-8 times larger in the mountains. Effects of dying trees and particularly treethrows represented about 70% of all BETs at both mountain sites, while it was 58% at the highland site and only 32% at the lowland site. Our results show a more significant role of BETs in

  18. Historical harvests reduce neighboring old-growth basal area across a forest landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, David M; Spies, Thomas A; Pabst, Robert

    2017-07-01

    While advances in remote sensing have made stand, landscape, and regional assessments of the direct impacts of disturbance on forests quite common, the edge influence of timber harvesting on the structure of neighboring unharvested forests has not been examined extensively. In this study, we examine the impact of historical timber harvests on basal area patterns of neighboring old-growth forests to assess the magnitude and scale of harvest edge influence in a forest landscape of western Oregon, USA. We used lidar data and forest plot measurements to construct 30-m resolution live tree basal area maps in lower and middle elevation mature and old-growth forests. We assessed how edge influence on total, upper canopy, and lower canopy basal area varied across this forest landscape as a function of harvest characteristics (i.e., harvest size and age) and topographic conditions in the unharvested area. Upper canopy, lower canopy, and total basal area increased with distance from harvest edge and elevation. Forests within 75 m of harvest edges (20% of unharvested forests) had 4% to 6% less live tree basal area compared with forest interiors. An interaction between distance from harvest edge and elevation indicated that elevation altered edge influence in this landscape. We observed a positive edge influence at low elevations (800 m). Surprisingly, we found no or weak effects of harvest age (13-60 yr) and harvest area (0.2-110 ha) on surrounding unharvested forest basal area, implying that edge influence was relatively insensitive to the scale of disturbance and multi-decadal recovery processes. Our study indicates that the edge influence of past clearcutting on the structure of neighboring uncut old-growth forests is widespread and persistent. These indirect and diffuse legacies of historical timber harvests complicate forest management decision-making in old-growth forest landscapes by broadening the traditional view of stand boundaries. Furthermore, the consequences

  19. Potential of forest management to reduce French carbon emissions - regional modelling of the French forest carbon balance from the forest to the wood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Luyssaert, S.; Bellassen, V.; Vallet, P.

    2015-12-01

    In France the low levels of forest harvest (40 Mm3 per year over a volume increment of 89Mm3) is frequently cited to push for a more intensive management of the forest that would help reducing CO2 emissions. This reasoning overlooks the medium-to-long-term effects on the carbon uptake at the national scale that result from changes in the forest's structure and delayed emissions from products decay and bioenergy burning, both determinant for the overall C fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. To address the impacts of an increase in harvest removal on biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes at national scale, we build a consistent regional modeling framework to integrate the forest-carbon system from photosynthesis to wood uses. We aim at bridging the gap between regional ecosystem modeling and land managers' considerations, to assess the synergistic and antagonistic effects of management strategies over C-based forest services: C-sequestration, energy and material provision, fossil fuel substitution. For this, we built on inventory data to develop a spatial forest growth simulator and design a novel method for diagnosing the current level of management based on stand characteristics (density, quadratic mean diameter or exploitability). The growth and harvest simulated are then processed with a life cycle analysis to account for wood transformation and uses. Three scenarii describe increases in biomass removals either driven by energy production target (set based on national prospective with a lock on minimum harvest diameters) or by changes in management practices (shorter or longer rotations, management of currently unmanaged forests) to be compared with business as usual simulations. Our management levels' diagnostics quantifies undermanagement at national scale and evidences the large weight of ownership-based undermanagement with an average of 26% of the national forest (between 10% and 40% per species) and thus represents a huge potential wood resource

  20. Quantifying climate-growth relationships at the stand level in a mature mixed-species conifer forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teets, Aaron; Fraver, Shawn; Weiskittel, Aaron R; Hollinger, David Y

    2018-03-11

    A range of environmental factors regulate tree growth; however, climate is generally thought to most strongly influence year-to-year variability in growth. Numerous dendrochronological (tree-ring) studies have identified climate factors that influence year-to-year variability in growth for given tree species and location. However, traditional dendrochronology methods have limitations that prevent them from adequately assessing stand-level (as opposed to species-level) growth. We argue that stand-level growth analyses provide a more meaningful assessment of forest response to climate fluctuations, as well as the management options that may be employed to sustain forest productivity. Working in a mature, mixed-species stand at the Howland Research Forest of central Maine, USA, we used two alternatives to traditional dendrochronological analyses by (1) selecting trees for coring using a stratified (by size and species), random sampling method that ensures a representative sample of the stand, and (2) converting ring widths to biomass increments, which once summed, produced a representation of stand-level growth, while maintaining species identities or canopy position if needed. We then tested the relative influence of seasonal climate variables on year-to-year variability in the biomass increment using generalized least squares regression, while accounting for temporal autocorrelation. Our results indicate that stand-level growth responded most strongly to previous summer and current spring climate variables, resulting from a combination of individualistic climate responses occurring at the species- and canopy-position level. Our climate models were better fit to stand-level biomass increment than to species-level or canopy-position summaries. The relative growth responses (i.e., percent change) predicted from the most influential climate variables indicate stand-level growth varies less from to year-to-year than species-level or canopy-position growth responses. By

  1. The Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) model: quantifying urban forest structure and functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Daniel E. Crane

    2000-01-01

    The Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) computer model was developed to help managers and researchers quantify urban forest structure and functions. The model quantifies species composition and diversity, diameter distribution, tree density and health, leaf area, leaf biomass, and other structural characteristics; hourly volatile organic compound emissions (emissions that...

  2. Numerical modeling of the airflow around a forest edge using LiDAR-derived forest heigths

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boudreault, Louis-Etienne; Dellwik, Ebba; Bechmann, Andreas

    A 3D methodology to quantify the effect of forests on the mean wind flow field is presented. The methodology is based on the treatment of forest raw data of light detection and ranging (LiDAR) scans, and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method based on a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (Ra......NS) approach using the k−e turbulence model with a corresponding canopy model. The example site investigated is a forest edge located on the Falster island in Denmark, where a measurement campaign was conducted. The LiDAR scans are used in order to obtain the forest heights, which served as input...

  3. The carbon debt from Amazon forest degradation: integrating airborne lidar, field measurements, and an ecosystem demography model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, M.; Keller, M. M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.; Pinagé, E. R.; Leitold, V.; Morton, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Amazon deforestation has declined over the last decade, yet forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation continue to impact forest carbon stocks and fluxes. The magnitude of this impact remains uncertain, and observation-based studies are often limited by short time intervals or small study areas. To better understand the long-term impact of forest degradation and recovery, we have been developing a framework that integrates field plot measurements and airborne lidar surveys into an individual- and process-based model (Ecosystem Demography model, ED). We modeled forest dynamics for three forest landscapes in the Amazon with diverse degradation histories: conventional and reduced-impact logging, logging and burning, and multiple burns. Based on the initialization with contemporary forest structure and composition, model results suggest that degraded forests rapidly recover (30 years) water and energy fluxes compared with old-growth, even at sites that were affected by multiple fires. However, degraded forests maintained different carbon stocks and fluxes even after 100 years without further disturbances, because of persistent differences in forest structure and composition. Recurrent disturbances may hinder the recovery of degraded forests. Simulations using a simple fire model entirely dependent on environmental controls indicate that the most degraded forests would take much longer to reach biomass typical of old-growth forests, because drier conditions near the ground make subsequent fires more intense and more recurrent. Fires in tropical forests are also closely related to nearby human activities; while results suggest an important feedback between fires and the microenvironment, additional work is needed to improve how the model represents the human impact on current and future fire regimes. Our study highlights that recovery of degraded forests may act as an important carbon sink, but efficient recovery depends on controlling future disturbances.

  4. The Impact of Forest Density on Forest Height Inversion Modeling from Polarimetric InSAR Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changcheng Wang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Forest height is of great significance in analyzing the carbon cycle on a global or a local scale and in reconstructing the accurate forest underlying terrain. Major algorithms for estimating forest height, such as the three-stage inversion process, are depending on the random-volume-over-ground (RVoG model. However, the RVoG model is characterized by a lot of parameters, which influence its applicability in forest height retrieval. Forest density, as an important biophysical parameter, is one of those main influencing factors. However, its influence to the RVoG model has been ignored in relating researches. For this paper, we study the applicability of the RVoG model in forest height retrieval with different forest densities, using the simulated and real Polarimetric Interferometric SAR data. P-band ESAR datasets of the European Space Agency (ESA BioSAR 2008 campaign were selected for experiments. The test site was located in Krycklan River catchment in Northern Sweden. The experimental results show that the forest density clearly affects the inversion accuracy of forest height and ground phase. For the four selected forest stands, with the density increasing from 633 to 1827 stems/Ha, the RMSEs of inversion decrease from 4.6 m to 3.1 m. The RVoG model is not quite applicable for forest height retrieval especially in sparsely vegetated areas. We conclude that the forest stand density is positively related to the estimation accuracy of the ground phase, but negatively correlates to the ground-to-volume scattering ratio.

  5. Modeling long-term changes in forested landscapes and their relation to the Earth's energy balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugart, H. H.; Emanuel, W. R.; Solomon, A. M.

    1984-01-01

    The dynamics of the forested parts of the Earth's surface on time scales from decades to centuries are discussed. A set of computer models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and elsewhere are applied as tools. These models simulate a landscape by duplicating the dynamics of growth, death and birth of each tree living on a 0.10 ha element of the landscape. This spatial unit is generally referred to as a gap in the case of the forest models. The models were tested against and applied to a diverse array of forests and appear to provide a reasonable representation for investigating forest-cover dynamics. Because of the climate linkage, one important test is the reconstruction of paleo-landscapes. Detailed reconstructions of changes in vegetation in response to changes in climate are crucial to understanding the association of the Earth's vegetation and climate and the response of the vegetation to climate change.

  6. Biomass and water storage dynamics of epiphytes in old-growth and secondary montane cloud forest stands in Costa Rica

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koehler, L.; Tobon, C.; Frumau, K.F.A.; Bruijnzeel, L.A.

    2007-01-01

    Epiphytic biomass, canopy humus and associated canopy water storage capacity are known to vary greatly between old-growth tropical montane cloud forests but for regenerating forests such data are virtually absent. The present study was conducted in an old-growth cloud forest and in a 30-year-old

  7. A climate sensitive model of carbon transfer through atmosphere, vegetation and soil in managed forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.

    2012-12-01

    For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This

  8. Simulating ectomycorrhiza in boreal forests: implementing ectomycorrhizal fungi model MYCOFON in CoupModel (v5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hongxing; Meyer, Astrid; Jansson, Per-Erik; Svensson, Magnus; Rütting, Tobias; Klemedtsson, Leif

    2018-02-01

    The symbiosis between plants and Ectomycorrhizal fungi (ECM) is shown to considerably influence the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes between the soil, rhizosphere, and plants in boreal forest ecosystems. However, ECM are either neglected or presented as an implicit, undynamic term in most ecosystem models, which can potentially reduce the predictive power of models.In order to investigate the necessity of an explicit consideration of ECM in ecosystem models, we implement the previously developed MYCOFON model into a detailed process-based, soil-plant-atmosphere model, Coup-MYCOFON, which explicitly describes the C and N fluxes between ECM and roots. This new Coup-MYCOFON model approach (ECM explicit) is compared with two simpler model approaches: one containing ECM implicitly as a dynamic uptake of organic N considering the plant roots to represent the ECM (ECM implicit), and the other a static N approach in which plant growth is limited to a fixed N level (nonlim). Parameter uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian calibration in which the model outputs are constrained to current forest growth and soil C / N ratio for four forest sites along a climate and N deposition gradient in Sweden and simulated over a 100-year period.The nonlim approach could not describe the soil C / N ratio due to large overestimation of soil N sequestration but simulate the forest growth reasonably well. The ECM implicit and explicit approaches both describe the soil C / N ratio well but slightly underestimate the forest growth. The implicit approach simulated lower litter production and soil respiration than the explicit approach. The ECM explicit Coup-MYCOFON model provides a more detailed description of internal ecosystem fluxes and feedbacks of C and N between plants, soil, and ECM. Our modeling highlights the need to incorporate ECM and organic N uptake into ecosystem models, and the nonlim approach is not recommended for future long-term soil C and N predictions. We also

  9. Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia's boreal forest

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hellmann, L.; Agafonov, L.; Ljungqvist, F. C.; Churakova (Sidorova), O.; Duethorn, E.; Esper, J.; Hulsmann, L.; Kirdyanov, A. V.; Moiseev, P.; Myglan, V. S.; Nikolaev, A. N.; Reinig, F.; Schweingruber, F. H.; Solomina, O.; Tegel, W.; Büntgen, Ulf

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 7 (2016), č. článku 074021. ISSN 1748-9326 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : 20th-century summer warmth * tree-ring chronology * scots pine * 2 millennia * temperature variability * northern-hemisphere * central siberia * worlds forests * white spruce * carbon-cycle * boreal forest * climate variability * dendroecology * Eurasia * forest productivity * global warming * high northern latitudes Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.404, year: 2016

  10. The Sylview graphical interface to the SYLVAN STAND STRUCTURE model with examples from southern bottomland hardwood forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Larsen; Ian Scott

    2010-01-01

    In the field of forestry, the output of forest growth models provide a wealth of detailed information that can often be difficult to analyze and perceive due to presentation either as plain text summary tables or static stand visualizations. This paper describes the design and implementation of a cross-platform computer application for dynamic and interactive forest...

  11. Mudcake growth: Model and implications

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Q.; Santamarina, Carlos

    2017-01-01

    cementing, and to prevent partial differential sticking. We developed a robust mud cake growth model for water-based mud based on wide stress-range constitutive equations within a Lagrangian reference system to avoid non-natural moving boundary solutions

  12. Ground beetles as indicators of past management of old-growth forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazzei A

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Old-growth forests are terrestrial ecosystems with the highest level of biodiversity and the main environments for the study of conservation and dynamics of the forest system. In Mediterranean Europe, two millennia of human exploitation deeply altered the structural complexity of the native forests. Some animal groups, including insects, may be used as a proxy of such changes. In this paper we explored the possible effects of forest management on the functional diversity (species traits of carabid beetle communities. Three old-growth forests of the Sila National Park were sampled by pitfall traps set up in pure beech, beech-silver fir and Calabrian black pine forests. In each forest, five managed vs. five unmanaged stands were considered. Managed sites were exploited until the sixties of the past century and then left unmanaged. More than 6000 carabid specimens belonging to 23 species were collected. The functional diversity in carabid groups is influenced by forest management especially in beech and beech-silver fir stands. Body size, specialized predators, endemic species and forest species were negatively affected by stand management. On the contrary, omnivorous ground beetles populations (or species with a high dispersal power (macropterous and large geographic distribution were positively influenced by stand management. In pine forests the old-growth community seems less sensitive to past management and more affected by soil evolution. Soil erosion and disturbance may reduce species diversity of ground beetles. Anyway, the composition of the carabid community shows that 50-60 years of forest restoration are enough for the reconstruction of a fairly diverse assemblage reflecting a “subclimax” situation.

  13. Growth and reproductive performance of sambar deer in Sabal Forest Reserve of Sarawak, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlan, Ismail; Dawend, Jiwan

    2013-10-01

    We examined the growth, reproduction, rutting behavior, and health status of sambar deer (Cervus unicolor brookei) in secondary Acacia mangium plantation. The data were collected over 11 years from a breeding herd of 21 stags and 33 hinds in Sabal Forest Reserve, Sarawak, Malaysia. Brody's growth model of the pooled data is Y t  = 148.56 (1 - 0.98e(-0.023t)), which estimates that maximum weights of adults are 184 and 115 kg for males and females respectively. Sambar deer are nonseasonal breeders with the breeding peak in February. Although the earliest age at which a female reached sexual maturity was 11 months, the mean age was 23 ± 7 months. Mean age of first fawning was 32 ± 8 months. Mean gestation period was 259 ± 12 days (n = 82). Stags shed antlers mostly between March and July. Velvet hardens at 103 ± 27 days (n = 23), and velvet harvesting is best at 7-9 weeks when antler length is 25-30 cm. Sambar deer are suitable as a farm species in forest plantations and have a vast potential to uplift rural living standards.

  14. Carbon changes in conterminous US forests associated with growth and major disturbances: 1992-2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Daolan; Ducey, Mark J; Heath, Linda S; Smith, James E

    2011-01-01

    We estimated forest area and carbon changes in the conterminous United States using a remote sensing based land cover change map, forest fire data from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity program, and forest growth and harvest data from the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis Program. Natural and human-associated disturbances reduced the forest ecosystems' carbon sink by 36% from 1992 to 2001, compared to that without disturbances in the 48 states. Among the three identified disturbances, forest-related land cover change contributed 33% of the total effect in reducing the forest carbon potential sink, while harvests and fires accounted for 63% and 4% of the total effect, respectively. The nation's forests sequestered 1.6 ± 0.1 Pg (10 15 petagram) carbon during the period, or 0.18 Pg C yr -1 , with substantial regional variation. The southern region of the United States was a small net carbon source whereas the greater Pacific Northwest region was a strong net sink. Results of the approach fit reasonably well at an aggregate level with other related estimates of the current forest US greenhouse gas inventory, suggesting that further research using this approach is warranted.

  15. Gap characteristics of southeastern Ohio second-growth forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David M. Hix; Katherine K. Helfrich

    2003-01-01

    Transect sampling was used to assess the features of 30 gaps encountered in upland oak stands on the Wayne National Forest. Tip-ups caused the most canopy gaps (52 percent), two-thirds of which were small (

  16. Regeneration Responses to Management for Old-Growth Characteristics in Northern Hardwood-Conifer Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aviva J. Gottesman

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Successful tree regeneration is essential for sustainable forest management, yet it can be limited by the interaction of harvesting effects and multiple ecological drivers. In northern hardwood forests, for example, there is uncertainty whether low-intensity selection harvesting techniques will result in adequate and desirable regeneration. Our research is part of a long-term study that tests the hypothesis that a silvicultural approach called “structural complexity enhancement” (SCE can accelerate the development of late-successional forest structure and functions. Our objective is to understand the regeneration dynamics following three uneven-aged forestry treatments with high levels of retention: single-tree selection, group selection, and SCE. Regeneration density and diversity can be limited by differing treatment effects on or interactions among light availability, competitive environment, substrate, and herbivory. To explore these relationships, manipulations and controls were replicated across 2 ha treatment units at two Vermont sites. Forest inventory data were collected pre-harvest and periodically over 13 years post-harvest. We used mixed effects models with repeated measures to evaluate the effect of treatment on seedling and sapling density and diversity (Shannon–Weiner H’. The treatments were all successful in recruiting a sapling class with significantly greater sapling densities compared to the controls. However, undesirable and prolific beech (Fagus americana sprouting dominates some patches in the understory of all the treatments, creating a high degree of spatial variability in the competitive environment for regeneration. Multivariate analyses suggest that while treatment had a dominant effect, other factors were influential in driving regeneration responses. These results indicate variants of uneven-aged systems that retain or enhance elements of stand structural complexity—including old-growth characteristics

  17. Involvement of allelopathy in inhibition of understory growth in red pine forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato-Noguchi, Hisashi; Kimura, Fukiko; Ohno, Osamu; Suenaga, Kiyotake

    2017-11-01

    Japanese red pine (Pinus densiflora Sieb. et Zucc.) forests are characterized by sparse understory vegetation although sunlight intensity on the forest floor is sufficient for undergrowth. The possible involvement of pine allelopathy in the establishment of the sparse understory vegetation was investigated. The soil of the red pine forest floor had growth inhibitory activity on six test plant species including Lolium multiflorum, which was observed at the edge of the forest but not in the forest. Two growth inhibitory substances were isolated from the soil and characterized to be 15-hydroxy-7-oxodehydroabietate and 7-oxodehydroabietic acid. Those compounds are probably formed by degradation process of resin acids. Resin acids are produced by pine and delivered into the soil under the pine trees through balsam and defoliation. Threshold concentrations of 15-hydroxy-7-oxodehydroabietate and 7-oxodehydroabietic acid for the growth inhibition of L. multiflorum were 30 and 10μM, respectively. The concentrations of 15-hydroxy-7-oxodehydroabietate and 7-oxodehydroabietic acid in the soil were 312 and 397μM, respectively, which are sufficient concentrations to cause the growth inhibition because of the threshold. These results suggest that those compounds are able to work as allelopathic agents and may prevent from the invasion of herbaceous plants into the forests by inhibiting their growth. Therefore, allelopathy of red pine may be involved in the formation of the sparse understory vegetation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  18. The intrinsic periodic fluctuation of forest: a theoretical model based on diffusion equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, J.; Lin, G., Sr.

    2015-12-01

    Most forest dynamic models predict the stable state of size structure as well as the total basal area and biomass in mature forest, the variation of forest stands are mainly driven by environmental factors after the equilibrium has been reached. However, although the predicted power-law size-frequency distribution does exist in analysis of many forest inventory data sets, the estimated distribution exponents are always shifting between -2 and -4, and has a positive correlation with the mean value of DBH. This regular pattern can not be explained by the effects of stochastic disturbances on forest stands. Here, we adopted the partial differential equation (PDE) approach to deduce the systematic behavior of an ideal forest, by solving the diffusion equation under the restricted condition of invariable resource occupation, a periodic solution was gotten to meet the variable performance of forest size structure while the former models with stable performance were just a special case of the periodic solution when the fluctuation frequency equals zero. In our results, the number of individuals in each size class was the function of individual growth rate(G), mortality(M), size(D) and time(T), by borrowing the conclusion of allometric theory on these parameters, the results perfectly reflected the observed "exponent-mean DBH" relationship and also gave a logically complete description to the time varying form of forest size-frequency distribution. Our model implies that the total biomass of a forest can never reach a stable equilibrium state even in the absence of disturbances and climate regime shift, we propose the idea of intrinsic fluctuation property of forest and hope to provide a new perspective on forest dynamics and carbon cycle research.

  19. Attaining the canopy in dry and moist tropical forests: strong differences in tree growth trajectories reflect variation in growing conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brienen, Roel J W; Zuidema, Pieter A; Martínez-Ramos, Miguel

    2010-06-01

    Availability of light and water differs between tropical moist and dry forests, with typically higher understorey light levels and lower water availability in the latter. Therefore, growth trajectories of juvenile trees--those that have not attained the canopy--are likely governed by temporal fluctuations in light availability in moist forests (suppressions and releases), and by spatial heterogeneity in water availability in dry forests. In this study, we compared juvenile growth trajectories of Cedrela odorata in a dry (Mexico) and a moist forest (Bolivia) using tree rings. We tested the following specific hypotheses: (1) moist forest juveniles show more and longer suppressions, and more and stronger releases; (2) moist forest juveniles exhibit wider variation in canopy accession pattern, i.e. the typical growth trajectory to the canopy; (3) growth variation among dry forest juveniles persists over longer time due to spatial heterogeneity in water availability. As expected, the proportion of suppressed juveniles was higher in moist than in dry forest (72 vs. 17%). Moist forest suppressions also lasted longer (9 vs. 5 years). The proportion of juveniles that experienced releases in moist forest (76%) was higher than in dry forest (41%), and releases in moist forests were much stronger. Trees in the moist forest also had a wider variation in canopy accession patterns compared to the dry forest. Our results also showed that growth variation among juvenile trees persisted over substantially longer periods of time in dry forest (>64 years) compared to moist forest (12 years), most probably because of larger persistent spatial variation in water availability. Our results suggest that periodic increases in light availability are more important for attaining the canopy in moist forests, and that spatial heterogeneity in water availability governs long-term tree growth in dry forests.

  20. Steeper declines in forest photosynthesis than respiration explain age-driven decreases in forest growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, Jianwu; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Richardson, Andrew D.; Kutsch, Werner; Janssens, Ivan A.

    2014-01-01

    The traditional view of forest dynamics originated by Kira and Shidei [Kira T, Shidei T (1967) Jap J Ecol 17:70-87] and Odum [Odum EP (1969) Science 164(3877):262-270] suggests a decline in net primary productivity (NPP) in aging forests due to stabilized gross primary productivity (GPP) and

  1. A model-based approach to estimating forest area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts

    2006-01-01

    A logistic regression model based on forest inventory plot data and transformations of Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery was used to predict the probability of forest for 15 study areas in Indiana, USA, and 15 in Minnesota, USA. Within each study area, model-based estimates of forest area were obtained for circular areas with radii of 5 km, 10 km, and 15 km and...

  2. Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonten, Luc T.C.; Groenenberg, Jan E.; Meesenburg, Henning; Vries, Wim de

    2011-01-01

    Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: → Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. → Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. → The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. → Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

  3. Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonten, Luc T.C., E-mail: luc.bonten@wur.nl [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Groenenberg, Jan E. [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Meesenburg, Henning [Northwest German Forest Research Station, Abt. Umweltkontrolle, Sachgebiet Intensives Umweltmonitoring, Goettingen (Germany); Vries, Wim de [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2011-10-15

    Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: > Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. > Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. > The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. > Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

  4. Influence of thinning intensity and canopy type on Scots pine stand and growth dynamics in a mixed managed forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Primicia, I.; Artázcoz, R.; Imbert, J.B.; Puertas, F.; Traver, M.C.; Castillo, F.J.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: We analysed the effects of thinning intensity and canopy type on Scots pine growth and stand dynamics in a mixed Scots pine-beech forest. Area of the study: Western Pyrenees. Material and methods: Three thinning intensities were applied in 1999 (0, 20 and 30% basal area removed) and 2009 (0, 20 and 40%) on 9 plots. Within each plot, pure pine and mixed pine-beech patches are distinguished. All pine trees were inventoried in 1999, 2009 and 2014. The effects of treatments on the tree and stand structure variables (density, basal area, stand and tree volume), on the periodic annual increment in basal area and stand and tree volume, and on mortality rates, were analysed using linear mixed effects models. Main Results: The enhancement of tree growth was mainly noticeable after the second thinning. Growth rates following thinning were similar or higher in the moderate than in the severe thinning. Periodic stand volume annual increments were higher in the thinned than in the unthinned plots, but no differences were observed between the thinned treatments. We observed an increase in the differences of the Tree volume annual increment between canopy types (mixed < pure) over time in the unthinned plots, as beech crowns developed. Research highlights: Moderate thinning is suggested as an appropriate forest practice at early pine age in these mixed forests, since it produced higher tree growth rates than the severe thinning and it counteracted the negative effect of beech on pine growth observed in the unthinned plots. (Author)

  5. Forest owner representation of forest management and perception of resource efficiency: a structural equation modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Ficko

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Underuse of nonindustrial private forests in developed countries has been interpreted mostly as a consequence of the prevailing noncommodity objectives of their owners. Recent empirical studies have indicated a correlation between the harvesting behavior of forest owners and the specific conceptualization of appropriate forest management described as "nonintervention" or "hands-off" management. We aimed to fill the huge gap in knowledge of social representations of forest management in Europe and are the first to be so rigorous in eliciting forest owner representations in Europe. We conducted 3099 telephone interviews with randomly selected forest owners in Slovenia, asking them whether they thought they managed their forest efficiently, what the possible reasons for underuse were, and what they understood by forest management. Building on social representations theory and applying a series of structural equation models, we tested the existence of three latent constructs of forest management and estimated whether and how much these constructs correlated to the perception of resource efficiency. Forest owners conceptualized forest management as a mixture of maintenance and ecosystem-centered and economics-centered management. None of the representations had a strong association with the perception of resource efficiency, nor could it be considered a factor preventing forest owners from cutting more. The underuse of wood resources was mostly because of biophysical constraints in the environment and not a deep-seated philosophical objection to harvesting. The difference between our findings and other empirical studies is primarily explained by historical differences in forestland ownership in different parts of Europe and the United States, the rising number of nonresidential owners, alternative lifestyle, and environmental protectionism, but also as a consequence of our high methodological rigor in testing the relationships between the constructs

  6. Tree growth response to climate change at the deciduous-boreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldblum, D. [Wisconsin-Whitewater Univ., Whitewater, WI (United States). Dept. of Geography and Geology; Rigg, L.S. [Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL (United States). Dept. of Geography

    2005-11-01

    Recent interest in the impact that future climate change may have on forest communities can be attributed to the fact that migration of tree species has been slow with respect to past climate changes and also because of the high degree of habitat fragmentation that has occurred in the recent past. For that reason, this study examined the implications of climate change on the future of sugar maple, white spruce and balsam fir. These trees represent the 3 dominant forest species at the deciduous-boreal forest ecotone in Ontario, Canada. The analysis was based on the responses of individual species to past monthly temperature and precipitation conditions as well as simulated monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in the study area for the 2080s. The sensitivity of the tree species to past climate with predicted conditions for the 2080 period was also considered. In particular, tree-ring analysis was used to compare local species-specific growth responses with instrumental climate records since 1900 to determine which climate variables control growth rates of these 3 species. Present temperature and precipitation averages were compared with general circulation model (GCM) predictions of monthly temperature and monthly precipitation to evaluate the potential benefit or harm to the dominant tree species over the next 80 years. It was concluded that sugar maple may persist in the medium term up to several centuries, as existing trees pass through their natural life-span without reproductive replacement. However, with extreme climate change, over many centuries, even the sugar maple at this northern range limit might be in jeopardy. White spruce is likely to benefit less, and the dominant balsam fir is likely to experience a decrease in growth potential. These projected changes would enhance the future status of sugar maple at its northern limit and facilitate range expansion northward in response to global warming. Although the study concerns only a small area

  7. Effects of intensive forest management practices on insect infestation levels and loblolly pine growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    John T. Nowak; C. Wayne Berisford

    2000-01-01

    Intensive forest management practices have been shown to increase tree growth and shorten rotation time. However, they may also lead to an increased need for insect pest management because of higher infestation levels and lower action thresholds. To investigate the relationship between intensive management practices arid insect infestation, maximum growth potential...

  8. Summer droughts limit tree growth across 10 temperate species on a productive forest site

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weemstra, M.; Eilmann, B.; Sass-Klaassen, U.; Sterck, F.J.

    2013-01-01

    Studies on climate impacts on tree annual growth are mainly restricted to marginal sites. To date, the climate effects on annual growth of trees in favorable environments remain therefore unclear despite the importance of these sites in terms of forest productivity. Because species respond

  9. Effects of stand composition and thinning in mixed-species forests : a modeling approach applied to Douglas-fir and beech

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bartelink, H.H.

    2000-01-01

    Models estimating growth and yield of forest stands provide important tools for forest management. Pure stands have been modeled extensively and successfully for decades; however, relatively few models for mixed-species stands have been developed. A spatially explicit, mechanistic model (COMMIX) is

  10. Tree growth acceleration and expansion of alpine forests: The synergistic effect of atmospheric and edaphic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Lucas C R; Sun, Geng; Zhu-Barker, Xia; Liang, Qianlong; Wu, Ning; Horwath, William R

    2016-08-01

    Many forest ecosystems have experienced recent declines in productivity; however, in some alpine regions, tree growth and forest expansion are increasing at marked rates. Dendrochronological analyses at the upper limit of alpine forests in the Tibetan Plateau show a steady increase in tree growth since the early 1900s, which intensified during the 1930s and 1960s, and have reached unprecedented levels since 1760. This recent growth acceleration was observed in small/young and large/old trees and coincided with the establishment of trees outside the forest range, reflecting a connection between the physiological performance of dominant species and shifts in forest distribution. Measurements of stable isotopes (carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen) in tree rings indicate that tree growth has been stimulated by the synergistic effect of rising atmospheric CO2 and a warming-induced increase in water and nutrient availability from thawing permafrost. These findings illustrate the importance of considering soil-plant-atmosphere interactions to understand current and anticipate future changes in productivity and distribution of forest ecosystems.

  11. Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi-arid forests of Inner Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongyan; Park Williams, A; Allen, Craig D; Guo, Dali; Wu, Xiuchen; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Liang, Eryuan; Sandanov, Denis V; Yin, Yi; Qi, Zhaohuan; Badmaeva, Natalya K

    2013-08-01

    Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi-arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi-arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi-arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming-induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi-arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree-ring widths. These ring-width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi-arid sites than at semi-humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007-2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Developments to the Sylvan stand structure model to describe wood quality changes in southern bottomland hardwood forests because of forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ian R. Scott

    2009-01-01

    Growth models can produce a wealth of detailed information that is often very difficult to perceive because it is frequently presented either as summary tables, stand view or landscape view visualizations. We have developed new tools for use with the Sylvan model (Larsen 1994) that allow the analysis of wood-quality changes as a consequence of forest management....

  13. A model to predict the sound reflection from forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wunderli, J.M.; Salomons, E.M.

    2009-01-01

    A model is presented to predict the reflection of sound at forest edges. A single tree is modelled as a vertical cylinder. For the reflection at a cylinder an analytical solution is given based on the theory of scattering of spherical waves. The entire forest is represented by a line of cylinders

  14. Modelling root reinforcement in shallow forest soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaugset, Arne E.

    1997-01-01

    A hypothesis used to explain the relationship between timber harvesting and landslides is that tree roots add mechanical support to soil, thus increasing soil strength. Upon harvest, the tree roots decay which reduces soil strength and increases the risk of management -induced landslides. The technical literature does not adequately support this hypothesis. Soil strength values attributed to root reinforcement that are in the technical literature are such that forested sites can't fail and all high risk, harvested sites must fail. Both unstable forested sites and stable harvested sites exist, in abundance, in the real world thus, the literature does not adequately describe the real world. An analytical model was developed to calculate soil strength increase due to root reinforcement. Conceptually, the model is composed of a reinforcing element with high tensile strength, i.e. a conifer root, embedded in a material with little tensile strength, i.e. a soil. As the soil fails and deforms, the reinforcing element also deforms and stretches. The lateral deformation of the reinforcing element is treated analytically as a laterally loaded pile in a flexible foundation and the axial deformation is treated as an axially loaded pile. The governing differential equations are solved using finite-difference approximation techniques. The root reinforcement model was tested by comparing the final shape of steel and aluminum rods, parachute cord, wooden dowels, and pine roots in direct shear with predicted shapes from the output of the root reinforcement model. The comparisons were generally satisfactory, were best for parachute cord and wooden dowels, and were poorest for steel and aluminum rods. A parameter study was performed on the root reinforcement model which showed reinforced soil strength increased with increasing root diameter and soil depth. Output from the root reinforcement model showed a strain incompatibility between large and small diameter roots. The peak

  15. Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Mark W. Schwartz

    1994-01-01

    Originally diminished by development, forests are coming back: forest biomass is accumulating. Forests are repositories for many threatened species. Even with increased standing timber, however, biodiversity is threatened by increased forest fragmentation and by exotic species.

  16. Spatial characteristics of tree diameter distributions in a temperate old-growth forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chunyu; Wei, Yanbo; Zhao, Xiuhai; von Gadow, Klaus

    2013-01-01

    This contribution identifies spatial characteristics of tree diameter in a temperate forest in north-eastern China, based on a fully censused observational study area covering 500×600 m. Mark correlation analysis with three null hypothesis models was used to determine departure from expectations at different neighborhood distances. Tree positions are clumped at all investigated scales in all 37 studied species, while the diameters of most species are spatially negatively correlated, especially at short distances. Interestingly, all three cases showing short-distance attraction of dbh marks are associated with light-demanding shrub species. The short-distance attraction of dbh marks indicates spatially aggregated cohorts of stems of similar size. The percentage of species showing significant dbh suppression peaked at a 4 m distance under the heterogeneous Poisson model. At scales exceeding the peak distance, the percentage of species showing significant dbh suppression decreases sharply with increasing distances. The evidence from this large observational study shows that some of the variation of the spatial characteristics of tree diameters is related variations of topography and soil chemistry. However, an obvious interpretation of this result is still lacking. Thus, removing competitors surrounding the target trees is an effective way to avoid neighboring competition effects reducing the growth of valuable target trees in forest management practice.

  17. Evaluating Forest Vegetation Simulator predictions for southern Appalachian upland hardwoods with a modified mortality model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip J. Radtke; Nathan D. Herring; David L. Loftis; Chad E. Keyser

    2012-01-01

    Prediction accuracy for projected basal area and trees per acre was assessed for the growth and yield model of the Forest Vegetation Simulator Southern Variant (FVS-Sn). Data for comparison with FVS-Sn predictions were compiled from a collection of n

  18. A hydroeconomic modeling framework for optimal integrated management of forest and water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Prats, Alberto; del Campo, Antonio D.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2016-10-01

    Forests play a determinant role in the hydrologic cycle, with water being the most important ecosystem service they provide in semiarid regions. However, this contribution is usually neither quantified nor explicitly valued. The aim of this study is to develop a novel hydroeconomic modeling framework for assessing and designing the optimal integrated forest and water management for forested catchments. The optimization model explicitly integrates changes in water yield in the stands (increase in groundwater recharge) induced by forest management and the value of the additional water provided to the system. The model determines the optimal schedule of silvicultural interventions in the stands of the catchment in order to maximize the total net benefit in the system. Canopy cover and biomass evolution over time were simulated using growth and yield allometric equations specific for the species in Mediterranean conditions. Silvicultural operation costs according to stand density and canopy cover were modeled using local cost databases. Groundwater recharge was simulated using HYDRUS, calibrated and validated with data from the experimental plots. In order to illustrate the presented modeling framework, a case study was carried out in a planted pine forest (Pinus halepensis Mill.) located in south-western Valencia province (Spain). The optimized scenario increased groundwater recharge. This novel modeling framework can be used in the design of a "payment for environmental services" scheme in which water beneficiaries could contribute to fund and promote efficient forest management operations.

  19. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  20. Capturing Old-Growth Values for Use in Forest Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Rochelle J.; Duinker, Peter N.; Beckley, Thomas M.

    2009-02-01

    Old-growth forests have declined significantly across the world. Decisions related to old growth are often mired in challenges of value diversity, conflict, data gaps, and resource pressures. This article describes old-growth values of citizens and groups in Nova Scotia, Canada, for integration in sustainable forest management (SFM) decision-making. The study is based on data from 76 research subjects who participated in nine field trips to forest stands. Research subjects were drawn from Aboriginal groups, environmental organizations, forestry professionals, and rural and urban publics. Diaries, group discussions, and rating sheets were used to elicit information during the field trips. Findings show that different elicitation techniques can influence the articulation of intensity with which some values are held. In addition, certain values are more often associated with old-growth than with other forest-age classes. Some values associated with old-growth are considered more important than others, and some silvicultural treatments are perceived to compromise old-growth values more than others. Demographic characteristics, such as constituency group, gender, and age, are shown to influence value priorities. Ideas on how to incorporate old-growth values into SFM decision-making are highlighted.

  1. Influence of repeated prescribed fire on tree growth and mortality in Pinus resinosa forests, northern Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Palik, Brian J.; Kern, Christel C.; Bradford, John B.; Scherer, Sawyer S.

    2017-01-01

    Prescribed fire is widely used for ecological restoration and fuel reduction in fire-dependent ecosystems, most of which are also prone to drought. Despite the importance of drought in fire-adapted forests, little is known about cumulative effects of repeated prescribed burning on tree growth and related response to drought. Using dendrochronological data in red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.)-dominated forests in northern Minnesota, USA, we examined growth responses before and after understory prescribed fires between 1960 and 1970, to assess whether repeated burning influences growth responses of overstory trees and vulnerability of overstory tree growth to drought. We found no difference in tree-level growth vulnerability to drought, expressed as growth resistance, resilience, and recovery, between areas receiving prescribed fire treatments and untreated forests. Annual mortality rates during the period of active burning were also low (less than 2%) in all treatments. These findings indicate that prescribed fire can be effectively integrated into management plans and climate change adaptation strategies for red pine forest ecosystems without significant short- or long-term negative consequences for growth or mortality rates of overstory trees.

  2. Low temperature growth of ultra-high mass density carbon nanotube forests on conductive supports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugime, Hisashi; Esconjauregui, Santiago; Yang, Junwei; D'Arsié, Lorenzo; Robertson, John; Oliver, Rachel A.; Bhardwaj, Sunil; Cepek, Cinzia

    2013-01-01

    We grow ultra-high mass density carbon nanotube forests at 450 °C on Ti-coated Cu supports using Co-Mo co-catalyst. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy shows Mo strongly interacts with Ti and Co, suppressing both aggregation and lifting off of Co particles and, thus, promoting the root growth mechanism. The forests average a height of 0.38 μm and a mass density of 1.6 g cm −3 . This mass density is the highest reported so far, even at higher temperatures or on insulators. The forests and Cu supports show ohmic conductivity (lowest resistance ∼22 kΩ), suggesting Co-Mo is useful for applications requiring forest growth on conductors

  3. MODELING URBAN DYNAMICS USING RANDOM FOREST: IMPLEMENTING ROC AND TOC FOR MODEL EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ahmadlou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The importance of spatial accuracy of land use/cover change maps necessitates the use of high performance models. To reach this goal, calibrating machine learning (ML approaches to model land use/cover conversions have received increasing interest among the scholars. This originates from the strength of these techniques as they powerfully account for the complex relationships underlying urban dynamics. Compared to other ML techniques, random forest has rarely been used for modeling urban growth. This paper, drawing on information from the multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2015, calibrates a random forest regression (RFR model to quantify the variable importance and simulation of urban change spatial patterns. The results and performance of RFR model were evaluated using two complementary tools, relative operating characteristics (ROC and total operating characteristics (TOC, by overlaying the map of observed change and the modeled suitability map for land use change (error map. The suitability map produced by RFR model showed 82.48% area under curve for the ROC model which indicates a very good performance and highlights its appropriateness for simulating urban growth.

  4. Theory of the one-dimensional forest-fire model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paczuski, M.; Bak, P.

    1993-01-01

    Turbulent cascade processes are studied in terms of a one-dimensional forest-fire model. A hier- archy of steady-state equations for the forests and the holes between them is constructed and solved within a mean-field closure scheme. The exact hole distribution function is found to be N H (s)=4N/[s(s+1)(s+2)], where N is the number of forests

  5. Sequential effects of severe drought and defoliation on tree growth and survival in a diverse temperate mesic forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthes, J. H.; Pederson, N.; David, O.; Martin-Benito, D.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the effects of climate change and biotic disturbance within diverse temperate mesic forests is complicated by the need to scale between impacts within individuals and across species in the community. It is not clear how these impacts within individuals and across a community influences the stand- and regional-scale response. Furthermore, co-occurring or sequential disturbances can make it challenging to interpret forest responses from observational data. In the northeastern United States, the 1960s drought was perhaps the most severe period of climatic stress within the past 300 years and negatively impacted the growth of individual trees across all species, but unevenly. Additionally, in 1981 the northeast experienced an outbreak of the defoliator Lymantria dispar, which preferentially consumes oak leaves, but in 1981 impacted a high proportion of other species as well. To investigate the effects of drought (across functional groups) and defoliation (within a functional group), we combined a long-term tree-ring dataset from an old-growth forest within the Palmaghatt Ravine in New York with a version of the Ecosystem Demography model that includes a scheme for representing forest insects and pathogens. We explored the sequential impacts of severe drought and defoliation on tree growth, community composition, and ecosystem-atmosphere interactions (carbon, water, and heat flux). W­e also conducted a set of modeling experiments with climate and defoliation disturbance scenarios to bound the potential long-term response of this forest to co-occurring and sequential drought-defoliator disturbances over the next fifty years.

  6. Multidecadal analysis of forest growth and albedo in boreal Finland

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lukeš, Petr; Stenberg, P.; Mottus, M.; Manninen, T.; Rautiainen, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 52, OCT (2016), s. 296-305 ISSN 0303-2434 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LM2010007; GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Albedo * fAPAR * LAI * NDVI * Time series * Seasonal trends * Forest structure Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.930, year: 2016

  7. Plot size recommendations for biomass estimation in a midwestern old-growth forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin A. Spetich; George R Parker

    1998-01-01

    The authors examine the relationship between disturbance regime and plot size for woody biomass estimation in a midwestern old-growth deciduous forest from 1926 to 1992. Analysis was done on the core 19.6 ac of a 50.1 ac forest in which every tree 4 in. d.b.h. and greater has been tagged and mapped since 1926. Five windows of time are compared—1926, 1976, 1981, 1986...

  8. Modelling of 137Cs behaviour in forest ecosystems and prediction of its accumulation in forest products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiridonov, S.I.; Fesenko, S.V.; Gontarenko, I.A.; Avila, R.

    2001-01-01

    A mathematical model of 137 Cs migration in forest ecosystem contaminated due to the Chernobyl accident presented, which describes the behaviour of this radionuclide in the forest litter-soil system, tress, and forest animals. The model's parameters for different types of forest ecosystems are estimated and model's adequacy is tested through the use of independent experimental data. The sensitivity of the model's output variables is analyzed to variations in the most significant parameters. The differences in the seasonal and mean annual dynamics of 137 Cs concentration in muscles of roe deers and mooses are shown to be defined by specific features of the diets of these animals and variations in 137 Cs content in the main diet components [ru

  9. Restoring hydrology and old-growth structures in a former production forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Heilmann-Clausen, Jacob; Bruun, Hans Henrik

    2016-01-01

    to restore hydrology and old-growth structure. We collected presence/absence data for four organism groups (vascular plants, epiphytic bryophytes and lichens, wood-inhabiting fungi) and measured environmental variables associated with species occurrence and influenced by restoration (dead or living tree...... characteristics, stand age, water level). We investigated biodiversity consequences of restoration towards pristine environmental characteristics by using a space-for-time substitution model. We evaluated how and through what mechanisms species richness is likely to react when pre-forestry hydrological conditions......-restoration conditions. Furthermore, the increase in soil moisture shifted the forest plots towards an alder carr, while the stand ageing process sustained the shade-tolerant beech despite its low tolerance for high soil humidity. Our prediction shows an increase in species richness for plants directly driven...

  10. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; Reed, Sasha; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

    2017-10-01

    For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  11. Tree species and soil nutrient profiles in old-growth forests of the Oregon Coast Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Alison; Perakis, Steven S.

    2011-01-01

    Old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest provide a unique opportunity to examine tree species – soil relationships in ecosystems that have developed without significant human disturbance. We characterized foliage, forest floor, and mineral soil nutrients associated with four canopy tree species (Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), western redcedar (Thuja plicata Donn ex D. Don), and bigleaf maple (Acer macrophyllum Pursh)) in eight old-growth forests of the Oregon Coast Range. The greatest forest floor accumulations of C, N, P, Ca, Mg, and K occurred under Douglas-fir, primarily due to greater forest floor mass. In mineral soil, western hemlock exhibited significantly lower Ca concentration and sum of cations (Ca + Mg + K) than bigleaf maple, with intermediate values for Douglas-fir and western redcedar. Bigleaf maple explained most species-based differences in foliar nutrients, displaying high concentrations of N, P, Ca, Mg, and K. Foliar P and N:P variations largely reflected soil P variation across sites. The four tree species that we examined exhibited a number of individualistic effects on soil nutrient levels that contribute to biogeochemical heterogeneity in these ecosystems. Where fire suppression and long-term succession favor dominance by highly shade-tolerant western hemlock, our results suggest a potential for declines in both soil Ca availability and soil biogeochemical heterogeneity in old-growth forests.

  12. Relating structural growth environment to white spruce sapling establishment at the Forest-Tundra Ecotone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, A.; Boelman, N.; Griffin, K. L.; Jensen, J.; Hiers, E.; Johnson, D. M.; Vierling, L. A.; Eitel, J.

    2017-12-01

    The effect of climate change on treeline position at the latitudinal Forest-Tundra ecotone (FTE) is poorly understood. While the FTE is expansive (stretching 13,000 km acros the panarctic), understanding relationships between climate and tree function may depend on very fine scale processes. High resolution tools are therefore needed to appropriately characterize the leading (northernmost) edge of the FTE. We hypothesized that microstructural metrics obtainable from lidar remote sensing may explain variation in the physical growth environment that governs sapling establishment. To test our hypothesis, we used terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to collect highly spatially resolved 3-D structural information of white spruce (Picea glauca) saplings and their aboveground growth environment at the leading edge of a FTE in northern Alaska and Northwest Territories, Canada. Coordinates of sapling locations were extracted from the 3-D TLS data. Within each sampling plot, 20 sets of coordinates were randomly selected from regions where no saplings were present. Ground roughness, canopy roughness, average aspect, average slope, average curvature, wind shelter index, and wetness indexwere extracted from point clouds within a variable radius from all coordinates. Generalized linear models (GLM) were fit to determine which microstructural metrics were most strongly associated with sapling establishment. Preliminary analyses of three plots suggest that vegetation roughness, wetness index, ground roughness, and slope were the most important terrain metrics governing sapling presence (Figure 1). Comprehensive analyses will include eight plots and GLMs optimized for scale at which structural parameters affect sapling establishment. Spatial autocorrelation of sample locations will be accounted for in models. Because these analyses address how the physical growth environment affects sapling establishment, model outputs will provide information for improving understanding of the

  13. Effects of biomass removal from forests on soil acidification, nutrient balances and tree growth - Upscaling based on experimental data and model calculations as a base for mapping the need for ash recycling; Effekter av skogsbraensleuttag paa markfoersurning, naeringsbalanser och tillvaext - Uppskalning baserat paa experimentella data och modellberaekningar som grund foer kartlaeggning av behov av askaaterfoering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hellsten, Sofie; Akselsson, Cecilia; Olsson, Bengt; Belyazid, Salim; Zetterberg, Therese

    2008-12-15

    Increased biomass removal from forests has become more important as the demand for renewable energy has increased due to climate change. Stump removal, in addition to wholetree harvesting, is now considered in Sweden. However, increased biomass removal may affect the nutrient balances in forest soils causing nutrient depletion and increased acidification . It is therefore important to improve the understanding of the effects of different levels of biomass removal and to assess the need for liming. In this study, the effect of different levels of biomass removal regarding nutrient balances (N, P, Ca, Mg, K and Na), acidification and tree growth has been assessed in three ways; i) assessing the effect of wholetree harvesting from three site experiments, ii) calculations of nutrient balances in forest soils applying a nutrient mass balance model, and iii) dynamic modelling. Three different biomass scenarios have been assessed; stem harvesting, wholetree harvesting, and stump removal. It is important to develop and refine the calculation for stumps, and to develop realistic forestry scenarios for removal of stem, wholetree and stumps. i) Three site experiments : The experiments showed that biomass is reduced by about 15 % at the time of the first thinning following wholetree harvesting. Furthermore, the concentrations of nutrients in the trees are reduced by up to 10 % after wholetree harvesting. The studies also showed that base saturation in the organic layer and in the upper part of the mineral soil was reduced, often between 10 and 30 %, 15 and 26 years after the wholetree harvesting. It was also possible to find a relation between the C/N-ratio in the humus layer and the nitrogen content in the needles. ii) Mass balance calculation: This study shows that there is a great potential to use nutrient mass balance calculations and calculations of excess acidity to assess the rate of depletion for base cations and the need for liming. The mass balance calculation showed

  14. Light Competition and Carbon Partitioning-Allocation in an improved Forest Ecosystem Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collalti, Alessio; Santini, Monia; Valentini Valentini, Riccardo

    2010-05-01

    In Italy about 100.000 km2 are covered by forests. This surface is the 30% of the whole national land and this shows how the forests are important both for socio-economic and for environmental aspects. Forests changes affect a delicate balance that involve not only vegetation components but also bio-geochemical cycles and global climate. The knowledge of the amount of Carbon sequestered by forests represents a precious information for their sustainable management in the framework of climate changes. Primary studies in terms of model about this important issue, has been done through Forest Ecosystem Model (FEM), well known and validated as 3PG (Landsberg et Waring, 1997; Sands 2004). It is based on light use efficiency approach at the canopy level. The present study started from the original model 3PG, producing an improved version that uses many of explicit formulations of all relevant ecophysiological processes but makes it able to be applied for natural forests. The mutual interaction of forest growth and light conditions causes vertical and horizontal differentiation in the natural forest mosaic. Only ecophysiological parameters which can be either directly measured or estimates with reasonable certainty are used. The model has been written in C language and has been created considering a tri-dimensional cell structure with different vertical layers depending on the forest type that has to be simulated. This 3PG 'improved' version enable to work on multi-layer and multi-species forests type with cell resolution of one hectare for the typical Italian forest species. The multi-layer version is the result of the implementation and development of Lambert-Beer law for the estimation of intercepted, absorbed and transmitted light through different storeys of the forest. It is possible estimates, for each storey, a Par value (Photosynthetic Active Radiation) through Leaf Area Index (LAI), Light Extinction Coefficient and cell Canopy Cover using a "Big Leaf" approach

  15. A large-scale forest landscape model incorporating multi-scale processes and utilizing forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson III; David R. Larsen; Jacob S. Fraser; Jian. Yang

    2013-01-01

    Two challenges confronting forest landscape models (FLMs) are how to simulate fine, standscale processes while making large-scale (i.e., .107 ha) simulation possible, and how to take advantage of extensive forest inventory data such as U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to initialize and constrain model parameters. We present the LANDIS PRO model that...

  16. Promoting Sustainable Forest Management Among Stakeholders in the Prince Albert Model Forest, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen T Hvenegaard

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Model Forests are partnerships for shared decision-making to support social, environmental, and economic sustainability in forest management. Relationships among sustainable forest management partners are often strained, but the Prince Albert Model Forest (PAMF represents a process of effective stakeholder involvement, cooperative relationships, visionary planning, and regional landscape management. This article seeks to critically examine the history, drivers, accomplishments, and challenges associated with the PAMF. Four key phases are discussed, representing different funding levels, planning processes, research projects, and partners. Key drivers in the PAMF were funding, urgent issues, provincial responsibility, core of committed people, evolving governance, desire for a neutral organisation, role of protected areas, and potential for mutual benefits. The stakeholders involved in the Model Forest, including the forest industry and associated groups, protected areas, Aboriginal groups, local communities, governments, and research groups, were committed to the project, cooperated on many joint activities, provided significant staffing and financial resources, and gained many benefits to their own organisations. Challenges included declining funding, changing administrative structures, multiple partners, and rotating representatives. The PAMF process promoted consultative and integrated land resource management in the region, and demonstrated the positive results of cooperation between stakeholders interested in sustainable forest management.

  17. Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Assessment and Predictive Modelling in Eastern Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushwaha, S. P. S.; Nandy, S.; Ahmad, M.; Agarwal, R.

    2011-09-01

    This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM). The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975-1990 as well as 1990-2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975-1990 and 1990-2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97%) between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81%) during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05%) by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  18. FOREST ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE MODELLING IN EASTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. S. Kushwaha

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM. The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975–1990 as well as 1990–2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975–1990 and 1990–2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97% between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81% during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05% by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  19. Upland log volumes and conifer establishment patterns in two northern, upland old-growth redwood forests, a brief synopsis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel J. Porter; John O. Sawyer

    2007-01-01

    We characterized the volume, weight and top surface area of naturally fallen logs in an old-growth redwood forest, and quantified conifer recruit densities on these logs and on the surrounding forest floor. We report significantly greater conifer recruit densities on log substrates as compared to the forest floor. Log substrate availability was calculated on a per...

  20. Application of two forest succession models at sites in Northeast Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lasch, P.; Lindner, M.

    1995-06-01

    In order to simulate potential impacts of climate change on forests, two succession models were applied to sites in the Northeast German lowlands. The models, which had been developed for Alpine (FORECE) and Boreal (FORSKA) forests differ from each other in the way they represent tree growth processes and the impact of environmental factors on establishment and growth. Both models were adjusted and compared with each other at sites that are situated along an ecological gradient from maritime to subcontinental climate. These sites are extending the former environmental space of model application towards water limited conditions, which under a predicted climatic change may have increasing importance for European forests. First results showed that FORECE was unrealistically sensitive to changes in soil moisture. On the other hand, FORSKA generally simulated very low biomasses. Since the structure of FORSKA seemed to be better suited for the simulation of changing environmental conditions, this model was chosen for further model development, applications and sensitivity analyses. Among other changes, establishment rates were increased and some environmental response factors were analysed. The function of account for resource depletion was modified. After the modifications for Central European conditions were made, there was a decrease in performance for the Boreal site. Both simulated total biomasses and species composition had changed. We conclude, that with currently available models, realistic forest dynamics within different climatic zones of Europe cannot be simulated without more substantial model modifications. (orig.)

  1. Modeling Precipitation Dependent Forest Resilience in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, P.; Behera, M. D.; Roy, P. S.

    2018-04-01

    The impact of long term climate change that imparts stress on forest could be perceived by studying the regime shift of forest ecosystem. With the change of significant precipitation, forest may go through density change around globe at different spatial and temporal scale. The 100 class high resolution (60 meter spatial resolution) Indian vegetation type map was used in this study recoded into four broad categories depending on phrenology as (i) forest, (ii) scrubland, (iii) grassland and (iv) treeless area. The percentage occupancy of forest, scrub, grass and treeless were observed as 19.9 %, 5.05 %, 1.89 % and 7.79 % respectively. Rest of the 65.37 % land area was occupied by the cropland, built-up, water body and snow covers. The majority forest cover were appended into a 5 km × 5 km grid, along with the mean annual precipitation taken from Bioclim data. The binary presence and absence of different vegetation categories in relates to the annual precipitation was analyzed to calculate their resilience expressed in probability values ranging from 0 to 1. Forest cover observed having resilience probability (Pr) < 0.3 in only 0.3 % (200 km2) of total forest cover in India, which was 4.3 % < 0.5 Pr. Majority of the scrubs and grass (64.92 % Pr < 0.5) from North East India which were the shifting cultivation lands showing low resilience, having their high tendency to be transform to forest. These results have spatial explicitness to highlight the resilient and non-resilient distribution of forest, scrub and grass, and treeless areas in India.

  2. MODELING PRECIPITATION DEPENDENT FOREST RESILIENCE IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Das

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The impact of long term climate change that imparts stress on forest could be perceived by studying the regime shift of forest ecosystem. With the change of significant precipitation, forest may go through density change around globe at different spatial and temporal scale. The 100 class high resolution (60 meter spatial resolution Indian vegetation type map was used in this study recoded into four broad categories depending on phrenology as (i forest, (ii scrubland, (iii grassland and (iv treeless area. The percentage occupancy of forest, scrub, grass and treeless were observed as 19.9 %, 5.05 %, 1.89 % and 7.79 % respectively. Rest of the 65.37 % land area was occupied by the cropland, built-up, water body and snow covers. The majority forest cover were appended into a 5 km × 5 km grid, along with the mean annual precipitation taken from Bioclim data. The binary presence and absence of different vegetation categories in relates to the annual precipitation was analyzed to calculate their resilience expressed in probability values ranging from 0 to 1. Forest cover observed having resilience probability (Pr < 0.3 in only 0.3 % (200 km2 of total forest cover in India, which was 4.3 % < 0.5 Pr. Majority of the scrubs and grass (64.92 % Pr < 0.5 from North East India which were the shifting cultivation lands showing low resilience, having their high tendency to be transform to forest. These results have spatial explicitness to highlight the resilient and non-resilient distribution of forest, scrub and grass, and treeless areas in India.

  3. Alternative business models for forest - dependent communities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The dominant mode of business practice in the African forest sector – especially in the high forest cover regions – comes in the form of concessionaires operating on publicly held lands. Increasingly, however, the concession - based model is being challenged. Is it socially and environmentally sustainable? Does it lead to ...

  4. Modeling soil erosion and transport on forest landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Steven G McNulty

    1998-01-01

    Century-long studies on the impacts of forest management in North America suggest sediment can cause major reduction on stream water quality. Soil erosion patterns in forest watersheds are patchy and heterogeneous. Therefore, patterns of soil erosion are difficult to model and predict. The objective of this study is to develop a user friendly management tool for land...

  5. Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant; Anatoly S. Shvidenko; Robert M. Scheller

    2010-01-01

    Managers of forested landscapes must account for multiple, interacting ecological processes operating at broad spatial and temporal scales. These interactions can be of such complexity that predictions of future forest ecosystem states are beyond the analytical capability of the human mind. Landscape disturbance and succession models (LDSM) are predictive and...

  6. Viscoelastic model of tungsten 'fuzz' growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krasheninnikov, S I

    2011-01-01

    A viscoelastic model of fuzz growth is presented. The model describes the main features of tungsten fuzz observed in experiments. It gives estimates of fuzz growth rate and temperature range close to experimental ones.

  7. Chronic water stress reduces tree growth and the carbon sink of deciduous hardwood forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzostek, Edward R; Dragoni, Danilo; Schmid, Hans Peter; Rahman, Abdullah F; Sims, Daniel; Wayson, Craig A; Johnson, Daniel J; Phillips, Richard P

    2014-08-01

    Predicted decreases in water availability across the temperate forest biome have the potential to offset gains in carbon (C) uptake from phenology trends, rising atmospheric CO2 , and nitrogen deposition. While it is well established that severe droughts reduce the C sink of forests by inducing tree mortality, the impacts of mild but chronic water stress on forest phenology and physiology are largely unknown. We quantified the C consequences of chronic water stress using a 13-year record of tree growth (n = 200 trees), soil moisture, and ecosystem C balance at the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, and a regional 11-year record of tree growth (n > 300 000 trees) and water availability for the 20 most dominant deciduous broadleaf tree species across the eastern and midwestern USA. We show that despite ~26 more days of C assimilation by trees at the MMSF, increasing water stress decreased the number of days of wood production by ~42 days over the same period, reducing the annual accrual of C in woody biomass by 41%. Across the deciduous forest region, water stress induced similar declines in tree growth, particularly for water-demanding 'mesophytic' tree species. Given the current replacement of water-stress adapted 'xerophytic' tree species by mesophytic tree species, we estimate that chronic water stress has the potential to decrease the C sink of deciduous forests by up to 17% (0.04 Pg C yr(-1) ) in the coming decades. This reduction in the C sink due to mesophication and chronic water stress is equivalent to an additional 1-3 days of global C emissions from fossil fuel burning each year. Collectively, our results indicate that regional declines in water availability may offset the growth-enhancing effects of other global changes and reduce the extent to which forests ameliorate climate warming. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Soil acidification by atmospheric pollution and forest growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengt Jonsson

    1976-01-01

    In recent years concern has been expressed about the danger of harmful pollution deposits which affect areas at great distances from the emission sources. The investigation was so designed that a possible reaction in growth resulting from a supposed acidification could be observed as far as possible. A poorer growth development was observed in regions, which are...

  9. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Seidl, Rupert; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Fonseca, Teresa F.; Gillet, François; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Merganičová, Katarína; Netherer, Sigrid; Arpaci, Alexander; Bontemps, Jean-Daniel; Bugmann, Harald

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework f...

  10. Mudcake growth: Model and implications

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Q.

    2017-12-15

    Oil and gas account for 60% of the world\\'s energy consumption. Drilling muds that are used to advance oil and gas wells must be engineered to avoid wellbore integrity problems associated with mud cake formation, to favor cake erosion during cementing, and to prevent partial differential sticking. We developed a robust mud cake growth model for water-based mud based on wide stress-range constitutive equations within a Lagrangian reference system to avoid non-natural moving boundary solutions. The comprehensive mud cake growth model readily accommodates environmental factors (e.g., temperature, pH, and ionic concentration) and defines the yield stress distribution for displacement-erosion analyses. Results show that the mud cake thickness is more sensitive to time than to filtration pressure, therefore, time controls the non-uniform distribution of mudcake thickness during drilling. Long filtration time, high permeability, high salinity, high in-situ temperature and low viscosity exacerbate fluid loss and give rise to thick filter cakes. The analysis of residual cake thickness during cement displacement must take into account the effective stress dependent mudcake formation and the time-dependent mud thixotropy. Thixotropy dominates the mud yield stress at high void ratios, e.g. e > 20. The offsetting force that causes differential pressure sticking increases sub-linearly as a power function of the still-time.

  11. Considerations in Forest Growth Estimation Between Two Measurements of Mapped Forest Inventory Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael T. Thompson

    2006-01-01

    Several aspects of the enhanced Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program?s national plot design complicate change estimation. The design incorporates up to three separate plot sizes (microplot, subplot, and macroplot) to sample trees of different sizes. Because multiple plot sizes are involved, change estimators designed for polyareal plot sampling, such as those...

  12. Spatial Upscaling of Soil Respiration under a Complex Canopy Structure in an Old‐Growth Deciduous Forest, Central Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilanee Suchewaboripont

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The structural complexity, especially canopy and gap structure, of old‐growth forests affects the spatial variation of soil respiration (Rs. Without considering this variation, the upscaling of Rs from field measurements to the forest site will be biased. The present study examined responses of Rs to soil temperature (Ts and water content (W in canopy and gap areas, developed the best fit modelof Rs and used the unique spatial patterns of Rs and crown closure to upscale chamber measurements to the site scale in an old‐growth beech‐oak forest. Rs increased with an increase in Ts in both gap and canopy areas, but the effect of W on Rs was different between the two areas. The generalized linear model (GLM analysis identified that an empirical model of Rs with thecoupling of Ts and W was better than an exponential model of Rs with only Ts. Moreover, because of different responses of Rs to W between canopy and gap areas, it was necessary to estimate Rs in these areas separately. Consequently, combining the spatial patterns of Rs and the crown closure could allow upscaling of Rs from chamber‐based measurements to the whole site in the present study.

  13. Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

  14. Understanding old-growth red and white pine dominated forests in Ontario. Forest fragmentation and biodiversity project technical report No. 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carleton, T.J.; Gordon, A.M.

    1992-01-01

    In summer 1991, a variety of forest stands dominated by old specimens of white pine and red pine were sampled across a representative portion of the species' range in northcentral Ontario. Plots were established in 40 stands of those surveyed to identify the salient structural components of old-growth, to survey the floristic composition (vascular plants and autotrophic non- vascular plants), to survey site characteristics, and to estimate the links in understorey alpha diversity with site conditions and stand structure. Long-term objectives include a definition of old- growth pine forest, recognition criteria, and prospective management options. Forest stand structure was enumerated through mapping, mensurational, and age estimation techniques. Forest vegetation, including over and understorey species, was non- destructively sampled and a range of data on stand and soil-site variables was also collected in conjunction with information on stand variables peculiar to old growth forests.

  15. Conserving and Restoring Old Growth in Frequent-fire Forests: Cycles of Disruption and Recovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dave Egan

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available I provide a synthesis of the papers in the Special Issue, The Conservation and Restoration of Old Growth in Frequent-fire Forests of the American West. These papers - the product of an Old Growth Writing Workshop, held at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff, Arizona on 18-19 April 2006 - represent the ideas of 25 workshop participants who argue for a new attitude toward managing old growth in the frequent-fire forests of the American West. Unlike the lush, old-growth rainforests of the Pacific Northwest, the dry, frequent-fire forests of the western United States evolved with surface fires that disturbed the system with such regularity that young trees were almost always killed. When saplings did survive, they grew beyond the harm of frequent surface fires and, ultimately, attained the characteristics that define old growth in these systems. This system worked well, producing old-growth trees in abundance, until the onset of Euro-American settlement in the mid- to late-19th century. The arrival of these settlers put in motion an interplay of unprecedented social, political, economic, and ecological forces (e.g., removal of Native Americans and their fire-based land management systems, overgrazing of the understory, aggressive logging, establishment of federal land management agencies, implementation of a federal fire suppression policy. These activities have culminated in 1 overly dense forested ecosystems that are now on the verge of collapse because of catastrophic fires (i.e., crown fire at the landscape level; the Rodeo-Chediski Fire and insect outbreaks, 2 the emergence of conservation-minded environmental legislation and policy, and 3 greater levels of interaction between citizens, federal agencies, and fire-prone landscapes. Recognizing the tenuous ecological situation of these forests, restoration ecologists, foresters, and others have developed ways to return historic ecological processes and lower tree densities to these forests

  16. Do soil fertilization and forest canopy foliage affect the growth and photosynthesis of Amazonian saplings?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilvanda dos Santos Magalhães

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Most Amazonian soils are highly weathered and poor in nutrients. Therefore, photosynthesis and plant growth should positively respond to the addition of mineral nutrients. Surprisingly, no study has been carried out in situ in the central Amazon to address this issue for juvenile trees. The objective of this study was to determine how photosynthetic rates and growth of tree saplings respond to the addition of mineral nutrients, to the variation in leaf area index of the forest canopy, and to changes in soil water content associated with rainfall seasonality. We assessed the effect of adding a slow-release fertilizer. We determined plant growth from 2010 to 2012 and gas exchange in the wet and dry season of 2012. Rainfall seasonality led to variations in soil water content, but it did not affect sapling growth or leaf gas exchange parameters. Although soil amendment increased phosphorus content by 60 %, neither plant growth nor the photosynthetic parameters were influenced by the addition of mineral nutrients. However, photosynthetic rates and growth of saplings decreased as the forest canopy became denser. Even when Amazonian soils are poor in nutrients, photosynthesis and sapling growth are more responsive to slight variations in light availability in the forest understory than to the availability of nutrients. Therefore, the response of saplings to future increases in atmospheric [CO2] will not be limited by the availability of mineral nutrients in the soil.

  17. The Role of Old-growth Forests in Frequent-fire Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Binkley

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Classic ecological concepts and forestry language regarding old growth are not well suited to frequent-fire landscapes. In frequent-fire, old-growth landscapes, there is a symbiotic relationship between the trees, the understory graminoids, and fire that results in a healthy ecosystem. Patches of old growth interspersed with younger growth and open, grassy areas provide a wide variety of habitats for animals, and have a higher level of biodiversity. Fire suppression is detrimental to these forests, and eventually destroys all old growth. The reintroduction of fire into degraded frequent-fire, old-growth forests, accompanied by appropriate thinning, can restore a balance to these ecosystems. Several areas require further research and study: 1 the ability of the understory to respond to restoration treatments, 2 the rate of ecosystem recovery following wildfires whose level of severity is beyond the historic or natural range of variation, 3 the effects of climate change, and 4 the role of the microbial community. In addition, it is important to recognize that much of our knowledge about these old-growth systems comes from a few frequent-fire forest types.

  18. [Dynamics of Amomum villosum growth and its fruit yield cultivated under tropical forests].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zheng; Gan, Jianmin; Feng, Zhili; Meng, Ying

    2004-01-01

    Investigations on the dynamics of Amomum villosum growth and its fruit yield cultivated under tropical ravine rainforest and secondary forest at different elevations in Xishuangbanna showed that the yield of A. villosum was influenced by the site age, sun light level of understorey, and water stress in dry season. The fruit yield and mature plant density decreased with increasing age of the A. villosum site. The fruit yield increased with sun light level when the light level in understorey was under 35% of full sun light (P forest was not significant. Planned cultivation of A. villosum in the secondary forest of the shifting cultivation land by ravine from 800-1000 m elevation instead of customary cultivation in the ravine rainforest, could not only resolve the problem of the effect of light deficiency in understorey and water stress in the dry season on A. villosum fruit yield, but also be useful to protect the tropical ravine rain forest.

  19. Modelling interactions of carbon dioxide, forests, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxmoore, R.J.; Baldocchi, D.D.

    1994-01-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide is rising and forests and climate is changing exclamation point This combination of fact and premise may be evaluated at a range of temporal and spatial scales with the aid of computer simulators describing the interrelationships between forest vegetation, litter and soil characteristics, and appropriate meteorological variables. Some insights on the effects of climate on the transfers of carbon and the converse effect of carbon transfer on climate are discussed as a basis for assessing the significance of feedbacks between vegetation and climate under conditions of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Three main classes of forest models are reviewed. These are physiologically-based models, forest succession simulators based on the JABOWA model, and ecosystem-carbon budget models that use compartment transfer rates with empirically estimated coefficients. Some regression modeling approaches are also outlined. Energy budget models applied to forests and grasslands are also reviewed. This review presents examples of forest models; a comprehensive discussion of all available models is not undertaken

  20. Challenges of Governing Second-Growth Forests: A Case Study from the Brazilian Amazonian State of Pará

    OpenAIRE

    Vieira, Ima; Gardner, Toby; Ferreira, Joice; Lees, Alexander; Barlow, Jos

    2014-01-01

    Despite the growing ecological and social importance of second-growth and regenerating forests across much of the world, significant inconsistencies remain in the legal framework governing these forests in many tropical countries and elsewhere. Such inconsistencies and uncertainties undermine attempts to improve both the transparency and sustainability of management regimes. Here, we present a case-study overview of some of the main challenges facing the governance of second-growth forests an...

  1. Protecting rare, old-growth, forest-associated species under the Survey and Manage program guidelines of the northwest forest plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randy Molina; Bruce G. Marcot; Robin. Lesher

    2006-01-01

    The Survey and Manage Program of the Northwest Forest Plan (MFP) represents an unparalleled attempt to protect rare, little-known species associated with late-successional and old-growth forests on more than 7.7 million ha of federal lands. Approximately 400 species of amphibians, bryophytes, fungi, lichens, mollusks, vascular plants, arthropod functional groups, and...

  2. Climate indices strongly influence old-growth forest carbon exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonia Wharton; Matthias Falk

    2016-01-01

    We present a decade and a half (1998–2013) of carbon dioxide fluxes from an old-growth stand in the American Pacific Northwest to identify ecosystem-level responses to Pacific teleconnection patterns, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides the longest, continuous record of old-growth eddy flux data to date from one of the longest running...

  3. Beneath the veil: Plant growth form influences the strength of species richness-productivity relationships in forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, B.; Grace, J.B.; Chase, J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Aim: Species richness has been observed to increase with productivity at large spatial scales, though the strength of this relationship varies among functional groups. In forests, canopy trees shade understorey plants, and for this reason we hypothesize that species richness of canopy trees will depend on macroclimate, while species richness of shorter growth forms will additionally be affected by shading from the canopy. In this study we test for differences in species richness-productivity relationships (SRPRs) among growth forms (canopy trees, shrubs, herbaceous species) in small forest plots. Location: We analysed 231 plots ranging from 34.0?? to 48.3?? N latitude and from 75.0?? to 124.2?? W longitude in the United States. Methods: We analysed data collected by the USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis program for plant species richness partitioned into different growth forms, in small plots. We used actual evapotranspiration as a macroclimatic estimate of regional productivity and calculated the area of light-blocking tissue in the immediate area surrounding plots for an estimate of the intensity of local shading. We estimated and compared SRPRs for different partitions of the species richness dataset using generalized linear models and we incorporated the possible indirect effects of shading using a structural equation model. Results: Canopy tree species richness increased strongly with regional productivity, while local shading primarily explained the variation in herbaceous plant richness. Shrub species richness was related to both regional productivity and local shading. Main conclusions: The relationship between total forest plant species richness and productivity at large scales belies strong effects of local interactions. Counter to the pattern for overall richness, we found that understorey herbaceous plant species richness does not respond to regional productivity gradients, and instead is strongly influenced by canopy density, while shrub species

  4. Investigating the relationship between tree heights derived from SIBBORK forest model and remote sensing measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, B.; Feliciano, E. A.; Armstrong, A. H.; Sun, G.; Montesano, P.; Ranson, K.

    2017-12-01

    Tree heights are one of the most commonly used remote sensing parameters to measure biomass of a forest. In this project, we investigate the relationship between remotely sensed tree heights (e.g. G-LiHT lidar and commercially available high resolution satellite imagery, HRSI) and the SIBBORK modeled tree heights. G-LiHT is a portable, airborne imaging system that simultaneously maps the composition, structure, and function of terrestrial ecosystems using lidar, imaging spectroscopy and thermal mapping. Ground elevation and canopy height models were generated using the lidar data acquired in 2012. A digital surface model was also generated using the HRSI technique from the commercially available WorldView data in 2016. The HRSI derived height and biomass products are available at the plot (10x10m) level. For this study, we parameterized the SIBBORK individual-based gap model for Howland forest, Maine. The parameterization was calibrated using field data for the study site and results show that the simulated forest reproduces the structural complexity of Howland old growth forest, based on comparisons of key variables including, aboveground biomass, forest height and basal area. Furthermore carbon cycle and ecosystem observational capabilities will be enhanced over the next 6 years via the launch of two LiDAR (NASA's GEDI and ICESAT 2) and two SAR (NASA's ISRO NiSAR and ESA's Biomass) systems. Our aim is to present the comparison of canopy height models obtained with SIBBORK forest model and remote sensing techniques, highlighting the synergy between individual-based forest modeling and high-resolution remote sensing.

  5. Using Random Forest Models to Predict Organizational Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Burton; Bobashev, Georgly

    2012-01-01

    We present a methodology to access the proclivity of an organization to commit violence against nongovernment personnel. We fitted a Random Forest model using the Minority at Risk Organizational Behavior (MAROS) dataset. The MAROS data is longitudinal; so, individual observations are not independent. We propose a modification to the standard Random Forest methodology to account for the violation of the independence assumption. We present the results of the model fit, an example of predicting violence for an organization; and finally, we present a summary of the forest in a "meta-tree,"

  6. Understanding forest-derived biomass supply with GIS modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hock, B. K.; Blomqvist, L.; Hall, P.

    2012-01-01

    distribution, and the cost of delivery as forests are frequently remote from energy users. A GIS-based model was developed to predict supply curves of forest biomass material for a site or group of sites, both now and in the future. The GIS biomass supply model was used to assist the New Zealand Energy...... Efficiency and Conservation Authority's development of a national target for biomass use for industrial heat production, to determine potential forest residue volumes for industrial heat and their delivery costs for 19 processing plants of the dairy company Fonterra, and towards investigating options...

  7. Particle growth in an isoprene-rich forest: Influences of urban, wildfire, and biogenic air masses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunsch, Matthew J.; Schmidt, Stephanie A.; Gardner, Daniel J.; Bondy, Amy L.; May, Nathaniel W.; Bertman, Steven B.; Pratt, Kerri A.; Ault, Andrew P.

    2018-04-01

    Growth of freshly nucleated particles is an important source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and has been studied within a variety of environments around the world. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the sources of the precursor gases leading to particle growth, particularly in isoprene-rich forests. In this study, particle growth events were observed from the 14 total events (31% of days) during summer measurements (June 24 - August 2, 2014) at the Program for Research on Oxidants PHotochemistry, Emissions, and Transport (PROPHET) tower within the forested University of Michigan Biological Station located in northern Michigan. Growth events were observed within long-range transported air masses from urban areas, air masses impacted by wildfires, as well as stagnant, forested/regional air masses. Growth events observed during urban-influenced air masses were prevalent, with presumably high oxidant levels, and began midday during periods of high solar radiation. This suggests that increased oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) likely contributed to the highest observed particle growth in this study (8 ± 2 nm h-1). Growth events during wildfire-influenced air masses were observed primarily at night and had slower growth rates (3 ± 1 nm h-1). These events were likely influenced by increased SO2, O3, and NO2 transported within the smoke plumes, suggesting a role of NO3 oxidation in the production of semi-volatile compounds. Forested/regional air mass growth events likely occurred due to the oxidation of regionally emitted BVOCs, including isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes, which facilitated multiday growth events also with slower rates (3 ± 2 nm h-1). Intense sulfur, carbon, and oxygen signals in individual particles down to 20 nm, analyzed by transmission electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (TEM-EDX), suggest that H2SO4 and secondary organic aerosol contributed to particle growth. Overall, aerosol

  8. Tree dynamics in canopy gaps in old-growth forests of Nothofagus pumilio in Southern Chile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fajardo, Alex; Graaf, de N.R.

    2004-01-01

    The gap dynamics of two Nothofagus pumilio (lenga) stands have been investigated. We evaluated and compared tree diameter distributions, spatial patterns, tree fall and gap characteristics and regeneration responses in gaps in two old-growth forests of Nothofagus pumilio in Southern Chile

  9. Notes on Some Old-Growth Forests in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    John T. Auten

    1941-01-01

    The disturbing increase in acreage of abandoned land in the Central States has heightened interest in the region's few remnants of old-growth hardwood forest. Studies are being made to determine what kinds of trees originally grew on different kinds of soil, what was the original character of the soil, how many trees grew on an acre, and how large the trees were...

  10. Time dependent growth of vertically aligned carbon nanotube forest using a laser activated catalytical CVD method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haluska, M.; Bellouard, Y.J.; Dietzel, A.H.

    2008-01-01

    We report the growth of vertically aligned single-wall and multi-wall carbon nanotube forest using a Laser Activated - Catalytic Chemical Vapor Deposition process. The experiments were performed in a cold-wall reactor filled with an ethylene-hydrogen-argon gas mixture in a 5:2:8 ratio at ambient

  11. Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

    2004-01-01

    Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

  12. Patterns of diametric growth in stem-analyzed laurel trees (Cordia alliodora) in a Panamanian forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard R Parresol; Margaret S. Devall

    2013-01-01

    Based on cross-dated increment cores, yearly diameters of trees were reconstructed for 21 laurels (Cordia alliodora) growing in a natural secondary forest on Gigante Peninsula, Panama. From this sample of dominant-codominant trees, ages were 14–35 years with an average of 25 years. Growth typically slowed at 7 years old, indicating effects of...

  13. Development of second-growth northern hardwoods on Bartlett Experimental Forest - a 25-year record

    Science.gov (United States)

    William B. Leak

    1961-01-01

    Second-growth timber occupies more than one-third of the commercial northern hardwood forest land in New England. The origin of these stands - clearcutting, or land abandonment with or without fire - determined their present characteristics; they are essentially even-aged, with a high proportion of intolerant and intermediate species and many stems of sprout origin (...

  14. Idaho forest growth response to post-thinning energy biomass removal and complementary soil amendments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauren A. Sherman; Deborah S. Page-Dumroese; Mark D. Coleman

    2018-01-01

    Utilization of woody biomass for biofuel can help meet the need for renewable energy production. However, there is a concern biomass removal will deplete soil nutrients, having short- and long-term effects on tree growth. This study aimed to develop short-term indicators to assess the impacts of the first three years after small-diameter woody biomass removal on forest...

  15. Ground-based forest harvesting effects on soil physical properties and Douglas-fir growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adrian Ares; Thomas A. Terry; Richard E. Miller; Harry W. Anderson; Barry L. Flaming

    2005-01-01

    Soil properties and forest productivity can be affected by heavy equipment used for harvest and site preparation but these impacts vary greatly with site conditions and operational practices. We assessed the effects of ground-based logging on soil physical properties and subsequent Douglas-fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb) Franco] growth on a highly...

  16. Silvicultural treatments enhance growth rates of future crop trees in a tropical dry forest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Villegas, Z.; Peña-Claros, M.; Mostacedo, B.; Alarcón, A.; Licona, J.C.; Leaño, C.; Pariona, W.; Choque, U.

    2009-01-01

    Silvicultural treatments are often needed in selectively logged tropical forest to enhance the growth rates of many commercial tree species and, consequently, for recovering a larger proportion of the initial volume harvested over the next cutting cycle. The available data in the literature suggest,

  17. Modeling white-tailed deer activity patterns across forested landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda S. Gribko; Michael E. Hohn; William M. Ford

    2000-01-01

    White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herbivory has been identified as a major impediment to the survival and growth of forest regeneration in the northeastern United States. As a supplement to direct control of deer densities through hunting, it may be possible for land managers to manipulate habitat and browsing pressure through carefully...

  18. Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning approaches such as random forest have increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuous variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensemble approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches there is no direct quantification of prediction error. Understanding prediction uncertainty is important when using model-based continuous maps as...

  19. Effects of wood ash fertilization on forest floor greenhouse gas emissions and tree growth in nutrient poor drained peatland forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ernfors, M.; Sikstroem, U.; Nilsson, M.; Klemedtsson, L.

    2010-01-01

    Wood ash (3.1, 3.3 or 6.6 tonnes dry weight ha -1 ) was used to fertilize two drained and forested peatland sites in southern Sweden. The sites were chosen to represent the Swedish peatlands that are most suitable for ash fertilization, with respect to stand growth response. The fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) from the forest floor, measured using opaque static chambers, were monitored at both sites during 2004 and 2005 and at one of the sites during the period 1 October 2007-1 October 2008. No significant (p > 0.05) changes in forest floor greenhouse gas exchange were detected. The annual emissions of CO 2 from the sites varied between 6.4 and 15.4 tonnes ha -1 , while the CH 4 fluxes varied between 1.9 and 12.5 kg ha -1 . The emissions of N 2 O were negligible. Ash fertilization increased soil pH at a depth of 0-0.05 m by up to 0.9 units (p 2 ha -1 year -1 and 0.52 m 2 ha -1 year -1 , respectively). The stand biomass, which was calculated using tree biomass functions, was not significantly affected by the ash treatment. The groundwater levels during the 2008 growing season were lower in the high ash dose plots than in the corresponding control plots (p < 0.05), indicating increased evapotranspiration as a result of increased tree growth. The larger basal area increment and the lowered groundwater levels in the high ash dose plots suggest that fertilization promoted tree growth, while not affecting greenhouse gas emissions.

  20. Dynamics of soil organic matter in primary and secondary forest succession on sandy soils in The Netherlands: An application of the ROMUL model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nadporozhskaya, M.A.; Mohren, G.M.J.; Chertov, O.G.; Komarov, A.S.; Mikhailov, A.V.

    2006-01-01

    We applied the simulation model ROMUL of soil organic matter dynamics in order to analyse and predict forest soil organic matter (SOM) changes following stand growth and also to identify gaps of data and modelling problems. SOM build-up was analysed (a) from bare sand to forest soil during a primary

  1. Abundance and Size Distribution of Cavity Trees in Second-Growth and Old-Growth Central Hardwood Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaofei Fan; Stephen R. Shifley; Martin A. Spetich; Frank R. Thompson III; David R. Larsen

    2005-01-01

    In central hardwood forests, mean cavity-tree abundance increases with increasing standsize class (seedling/sapling, pole, sawtimber, old-growth). However, within a size class, the number of cavity trees is highly variable among 0.1-ha inventory plots. Plots in young stands are most likely to have no cavity trees, but some plots may have more than 50 cavity trees/ha....

  2. Abundance and size distribution of cavity trees in second-growth and old-growth central hardwood forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaofei Fan; Stephen R. Shifley; Martin A. Spetich; Frank R. Thompson; David R. Larsen

    2005-01-01

    In central hardwood forests, mean cavity-tree abundance increases with increasing standsize class (seedling/sapling, pole, sawtimber, old-growth). However, within a size class, the number of cavity trees is highly variable among 0.1-ha inventory plots. Plots in young stands are most likely to have no cavity trees, but some plots may have more than 50 cavity trees/ha....

  3. [Measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hai-Qing; Wei, Shu-Jing; Jin, Sen; Sun, Long

    2012-05-01

    Forest fire is the main disturbance factor for forest ecosystem, and an important pathway of the decrease of vegetation- and soil carbon storage. Large amount of carbonaceous gases in forest fire can release into atmosphere, giving remarkable impacts on the atmospheric carbon balance and global climate change. To scientifically and effectively measure the carbonaceous gases emission from forest fire is of importance in understanding the significance of forest fire in the carbon balance and climate change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire, which covered three critical issues, i. e., measurement methods of forest fire-induced total carbon emission and carbonaceous gases emission, affecting factors and measurement parameters of measurement model, and cause analysis of the uncertainty in the measurement of the carbon emissions. Three path selections to improve the quantitative measurement of the carbon emissions were proposed, i. e., using high resolution remote sensing data and improving algorithm and estimation accuracy of burned area in combining with effective fuel measurement model to improve the accuracy of the estimated fuel load, using high resolution remote sensing images combined with indoor controlled environment experiments, field measurements, and field ground surveys to determine the combustion efficiency, and combining indoor controlled environment experiments with field air sampling to determine the emission factors and emission ratio.

  4. Modeling the mitigation effect of coastal forests on tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kh'ng, Xin Yi; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye

    2017-08-01

    As we have learned from the 26 Dec 2004 mega Andaman tsunami that killed 250, 000 lives worldwide, tsunami is a devastating natural disaster that can cause severe impacts including immense loss of human lives and extensive destruction of properties. The wave energy can be dissipated by the presence of coastal mangrove forests, which provide some degree of protection against tsunami waves. On the other hand, costly artificial structures such as reinforced walls can substantially diminish the aesthetic value and may cause environmental problems. To quantify the effectiveness of coastal forests in mitigating tsunami waves, an in-house 2-D model TUNA-RP is developed and used to quantify the reduction in wave heights and velocities due to the presence of coastal forests. The degree of reduction varies significantly depending on forest flow-resistant properties such as vegetation characteristics, forest density and forest width. The ability of coastal forest in reducing tsunami wave heights along the west coast of Penang Island is quantified by means of model simulations. Comparison between measured tsunami wave heights for the 2004 Andaman tsunami and 2-D TUNA-RP model simulated values demonstrated good agreement.

  5. Mathematical modeling of microbial growth in milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jhony Tiago Teleken

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical model to predict microbial growth in milk was developed and analyzed. The model consists of a system of two differential equations of first order. The equations are based on physical hypotheses of population growth. The model was applied to five different sets of data of microbial growth in dairy products selected from Combase, which is the most important database in the area with thousands of datasets from around the world, and the results showed a good fit. In addition, the model provides equations for the evaluation of the maximum specific growth rate and the duration of the lag phase which may provide useful information about microbial growth.

  6. Forty-two years of change in an old-growth and second-growth beech-maple forest of north central Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natalie R. Pinheiro; P. Charles Goebel; David M. Hix

    2008-01-01

    Using data collected in 1964 and 2006, we examined changes in the composition and structure of a second-growth and old-growth beech-maple forest of Crall Woods, located in Ashland County of north central Ohio. Over the 42 years, the old-growth forest (estimated to be at least 250 years old) experienced a significant shift in species composition as American beech,...

  7. Increased drought impacts on temperate rainforests from southern South America: results of a process-based, dynamic forest model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro G Gutiérrez

    Full Text Available Increased droughts due to regional shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes are likely to affect forests in temperate regions in the coming decades. To assess their consequences for forest dynamics, we need predictive tools that couple hydrologic processes, soil moisture dynamics and plant productivity. Here, we developed and tested a dynamic forest model that predicts the hydrologic balance of North Patagonian rainforests on Chiloé Island, in temperate South America (42°S. The model incorporates the dynamic linkages between changing rainfall regimes, soil moisture and individual tree growth. Declining rainfall, as predicted for the study area, should mean up to 50% less summer rain by year 2100. We analysed forest responses to increased drought using the model proposed focusing on changes in evapotranspiration, soil moisture and forest structure (above-ground biomass and basal area. We compared the responses of a young stand (YS, ca. 60 years-old and an old-growth forest (OG, >500 years-old in the same area. Based on detailed field measurements of water fluxes, the model provides a reliable account of the hydrologic balance of these evergreen, broad-leaved rainforests. We found higher evapotranspiration in OG than YS under current climate. Increasing drought predicted for this century can reduce evapotranspiration by 15% in the OG compared to current values. Drier climate will alter forest structure, leading to decreases in above ground biomass by 27% of the current value in OG. The model presented here can be used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on forest hydrology and other threats of global change on future forests such as fragmentation, introduction of exotic tree species, and changes in fire regimes. Our study expands the applicability of forest dynamics models in remote and hitherto overlooked regions of the world, such as southern temperate rainforests.

  8. Increased drought impacts on temperate rainforests from southern South America: results of a process-based, dynamic forest model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Armesto, Juan J; Díaz, M Francisca; Huth, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Increased droughts due to regional shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes are likely to affect forests in temperate regions in the coming decades. To assess their consequences for forest dynamics, we need predictive tools that couple hydrologic processes, soil moisture dynamics and plant productivity. Here, we developed and tested a dynamic forest model that predicts the hydrologic balance of North Patagonian rainforests on Chiloé Island, in temperate South America (42°S). The model incorporates the dynamic linkages between changing rainfall regimes, soil moisture and individual tree growth. Declining rainfall, as predicted for the study area, should mean up to 50% less summer rain by year 2100. We analysed forest responses to increased drought using the model proposed focusing on changes in evapotranspiration, soil moisture and forest structure (above-ground biomass and basal area). We compared the responses of a young stand (YS, ca. 60 years-old) and an old-growth forest (OG, >500 years-old) in the same area. Based on detailed field measurements of water fluxes, the model provides a reliable account of the hydrologic balance of these evergreen, broad-leaved rainforests. We found higher evapotranspiration in OG than YS under current climate. Increasing drought predicted for this century can reduce evapotranspiration by 15% in the OG compared to current values. Drier climate will alter forest structure, leading to decreases in above ground biomass by 27% of the current value in OG. The model presented here can be used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on forest hydrology and other threats of global change on future forests such as fragmentation, introduction of exotic tree species, and changes in fire regimes. Our study expands the applicability of forest dynamics models in remote and hitherto overlooked regions of the world, such as southern temperate rainforests.

  9. Latent Growth and Dynamic Structural Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J; Ram, Nilam

    2018-05-07

    Latent growth models make up a class of methods to study within-person change-how it progresses, how it differs across individuals, what are its determinants, and what are its consequences. Latent growth methods have been applied in many domains to examine average and differential responses to interventions and treatments. In this review, we introduce the growth modeling approach to studying change by presenting different models of change and interpretations of their model parameters. We then apply these methods to examining sex differences in the development of binge drinking behavior through adolescence and into adulthood. Advances in growth modeling methods are then discussed and include inherently nonlinear growth models, derivative specification of growth models, and latent change score models to study stochastic change processes. We conclude with relevant design issues of longitudinal studies and considerations for the analysis of longitudinal data.

  10. Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jump, Alistair S.; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Greenwood, Sarah; Allen, Craig D.; Kitzberger, Thomas; Fensham, Rod; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco

    2017-01-01

    Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This

  11. Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jump, Alistair S; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Greenwood, Sarah; Allen, Craig D; Kitzberger, Thomas; Fensham, Rod; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco

    2017-09-01

    Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This

  12. Long-term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality, regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chongyang; Liu, Hongyan; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Korolyuk, Andrey Yu; Sandanov, Denis V; Balsanova, Larisa D; Naidanov, Bulat B; Wu, Xiuchen

    2017-06-01

    Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long-term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900-2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Towards Linking 3D SAR and Lidar Models with a Spatially Explicit Individual Based Forest Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, B.; Ranson, J.; Sun, G.; Armstrong, A. H.; Fischer, R.; Huth, A.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we present a parameterization of the FORMIND individual-based gap model (IBGM)for old growth Atlantic lowland rainforest in La Selva, Costa Rica for the purpose of informing multisensor remote sensing techniques for above ground biomass techniques. The model was successfully parameterized and calibrated for the study site; results show that the simulated forest reproduces the structural complexity of Costa Rican rainforest based on comparisons with CARBONO inventory plot data. Though the simulated stem numbers (378) slightly underestimated the plot data (418), particularly for canopy dominant intermediate shade tolerant trees and shade tolerant understory trees, overall there was a 9.7% difference. Aboveground biomass (kg/ha) showed a 0.1% difference between the simulated forest and inventory plot dataset. The Costa Rica FORMIND simulation was then used to parameterize a spatially explicit (3D) SAR and lidar backscatter models. The simulated forest stands were used to generate a Look Up Table as a tractable means to estimate aboveground forest biomass for these complex forests. Various combinations of lidar and radar variables were evaluated in the LUT inversion. To test the capability of future data for estimation of forest height and biomass, we considered data of 1) L- (or P-) band polarimetric data (backscattering coefficients of HH, HV and VV); 2) L-band dual-pol repeat-pass InSAR data (HH/HV backscattering coefficients and coherences, height of scattering phase center at HH and HV using DEM or surface height from lidar data as reference); 3) P-band polarimetric InSAR data (canopy height from inversion of PolInSAR data or use the coherences and height of scattering phase center at HH, HV and VV); 4) various height indices from waveform lidar data); and 5) surface and canopy top height from photon-counting lidar data. The methods for parameterizing the remote sensing models with the IBGM and developing Look Up Tables will be discussed. Results

  14. Belowground Competition Directs Spatial Patterns of Seedling Growth in Boreal Pine Forests in Fennoscandia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Petter Axelsson

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Aboveground competition is often argued to be the main process determining patterns of natural forest regeneration. However, the theory of multiple resource limitation suggests that seedling performance also depends on belowground competition and, thus, that their relative influence is of fundamental importance. Two approaches were used to address the relative importance of above- and below-ground competition on regeneration in a nutrient-poor pine (Pinus sylvestris boreal forest. Firstly, seedling establishment beneath trees stem-girdled 12 years ago show that a substantial proportion of the seedlings were established within two years after girdling, which corresponds to a time when nutrient uptake by tree roots was severely reduced without disrupting water transport to the tree canopy, which consequently was maintained. The establishment during these two years also corresponds to abundances high enough for normal stand replacement. Secondly, surveys of regeneration within forest gaps showed that surrounding forests depressed seedlings, so that satisfactory growth occurred only more than 5 m from forest edges and that higher solar radiation in south facing edges was not enough to mediate these effects. We conclude that disruption of belowground competitive interactions mediates regeneration and, thus, that belowground competition has a strong limiting influence on seedling establishment in these forests.

  15. Effects of model choice and forest structure on inventory-based estimations of Puerto Rican forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas J. Brandeis; Maria Del Rocio; Suarez Rozo

    2005-01-01

    Total aboveground live tree biomass in Puerto Rican lower montane wet, subtropical wet, subtropical moist and subtropical dry forests was estimated using data from two forest inventories and published regression equations. Multiple potentially-applicable published biomass models existed for some forested life zones, and their estimates tended to diverge with increasing...

  16. Agricultural Abandonment, Suburban Growth, and Forest Expansion in Puerto Rico between 1991 and 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel K. Parés-Ramos

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The response of local economies to the globalization process can have a large effect on population and land-use dynamics. In countries with a high population density and relatively high levels of education, the globalization process has resulted in a shift in the local economy from agriculture to manufacturing, technology, and service sectors. This shift in the economy has impacted land-use dynamics by decreasing agricultural lands, increasing urban growth, and in some cases, increasing forest cover. This process of economic and forest transition has been well documented in Puerto Rico for the period 1950 to 1990, but some authors predicted that poor planning and continued urban growth would eliminate the gains in forest cover. To investigate the impacts of recent economic changes, we evaluated demographic and land-use changes for 880 "barrios" (i.e., neighborhoods, the smallest administrative unit, in Puerto Rico using government census data from 1990 and 2000 and land-cover classifications from 1991 and 2000. During this period, the population increased by 284 127 people (8.2%. Most of the growth was in the suburban barrios, whereas urban barrios lost population. This shift was reflected by the construction of more than 100 000 housing units in suburban barrios. Although urban sprawl is perceived as the major land-cover change, urban cover only increased from 10% to 11% between 1990 and 2000, whereas the increase in forest cover was much greater (28% to 40%. Grasslands and shrublands were the major sources of new urban and forest areas in 2000. Although these results are encouraging in terms of increasing forest cover, most of the new development has been concentrated in the coastal plains, which are the location of most of the remaining agricultural areas, a few protected areas, and threatened ecosystems (e.g., mangroves.

  17. Lévy-based growth models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsdóttir, Kristjana Ýr; Schmiegel, Jürgen; Jensen, Eva Bjørn Vedel

    2008-01-01

    In the present paper, we give a condensed review, for the nonspecialist reader, of a new modelling framework for spatio-temporal processes, based on Lévy theory. We show the potential of the approach in stochastic geometry and spatial statistics by studying Lévy-based growth modelling of planar o...... objects. The growth models considered are spatio-temporal stochastic processes on the circle. As a by product, flexible new models for space–time covariance functions on the circle are provided. An application of the Lévy-based growth models to tumour growth is discussed....

  18. The effects of acute irradiation on a forest biogeocenosis: Experimental data, model and practical applications for accidental cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexakhin, R.M.; Karaban, R.T.; Prister, B.S.

    1994-01-01

    The effects of acute irradiations of a mixed pine and birch forest in spring and autumn with a high power point-type gamma radiation source (1180 TBq 137 Cs) have been described. Radiation dose relationships for numerous response reactions of woody and herbaceous plants (growth and development of organs of woody plants, cytogenetical, physiological and biochemical changes in trees, reproductive potential of plants, damage and dying off of the forest as a biogeocenosis on the whole) have been calculated. Post-radiation recovery of the forest was investigated. Changes involving the secondary reactions related to radiation damage and death of the trees are presented. A model for radiation damage of forests has been designed. Examples are given on the usage of this model in the description of radiation effects in forests in the event of accidental releases of radionuclides into environment

  19. Establishing a cause and effect relationship for ambient ozone exposure and tree growth in the forest: Progress and an experimental approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manning, William J.

    2005-01-01

    Much has been written about the effects of ambient ozone on tree growth. Cause and effect has been established with seedlings in chambers. Results from multi-year studies with older tree seedlings, in open-top chambers, have been inconclusive, due to chamber effects. Extrapolation of results from chambers to trees in the forest is not possible. Predictive models for forest tree growth reductions caused by ozone have been developed, but not verified. Dendrochronological methods have been used to establish correlations between radial growth reductions in forest trees and ambient ozone exposure. The protective chemical ethylenediurea (EDU) has been used to protect tree seedlings from ozone injury. An experimental approach is advocated here that utilizes forest trees selected for sensitivity and non-sensitivity to ozone, dendrochronological methods, the protective chemical EDU, and monitoring data for ambient ozone, stomatal conductance, soil moisture potential, air temperature, PAR, etc. in long-term investigations to establish cause and effect relationships. - Progress is reviewed and an experimental approach is proposed to demonstrate a cause and effect relationship for ambient ozone and forest tree growth

  20. Marbled Murrelets Select Distinctive Nest Trees within Old-Growth Forest Patches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael P. Silvergieter

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The coastal old-growth forests of North America's Pacific Coast are renowned both for their commercial and ecological value. This study adds to growing evidence that selective harvesting of the largest trees may have a disproportionate ecological impact. Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus, a threatened species, nest almost exclusively in these old-growth forests. Detailed knowledge of nesting habitat selection provides guidance for habitat management and conservation. Habitat selection for this species has been studied at a variety of scales using ground and remote methods. However, because Marbled Murrelet nesting activity is limited to a single mossy platform on a single tree, we investigated nest tree selection within old-growth forest patches, using a set of 59 forest patches containing active nests. Nest trees were usually distinctive compared with neighboring trees in the surrounding 25 m radius patch. They averaged 15 to 20% taller than neighboring trees depending on region, had significantly larger stem diameters, more potential nesting platforms, and more moss. They had the most extreme values of height and width about three times as often as expected by chance. An analysis of moss platform use as a function of number of platforms per platform tree suggests that murrelets select individual platforms, rather than platform trees per se. Nonetheless, highly selective logging practices that remove high-value trees from stands may also remove trees most likely to be selected by nesting murrelets.

  1. Continuous Growth of Vertically Aligned Carbon Nanotubes Forests

    OpenAIRE

    Guzman de Villoria, Roberto; Wardle, Brian L.

    2011-01-01

    Vertically aligned carbon nanotubes are one of the most promising materials due their numerous applications in flexible electronic devices, biosensors and multifunctional aircraft materials, among others. However, the costly production of aligned carbon nanotubes, generally in a batch process, prevents their commercial use. For the first time, a controlled process to grow aligned carbon nanotubes in a continuous manner is presented. Uniform growth is achieved using 2D and 3D substrates. A sig...

  2. Modelling Forest Water Consumption in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dolman, A.J.; Nonhebel, S.

    1988-01-01

    The water consumption of oak, beech, spruce and pine forest is predicted from routinely measured meteorological data for five locations in the Netherlands. Differences in water consumption are found to be primarily a result of differences in interception loss. Predicted interception loss was found

  3. Modeling alternative zoning strategies in forest management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krcmar, E.; Vertinsky, I.; Kooten, van G.C.

    2003-01-01

    To satisfy public demands for environmental values, forest companies are facing the prospect of a reduction in wood supply and increases in costs. Some Canadian provincial governments have proposed intensifying silviculture in special zones dedicated to timber production as the means for pushing out

  4. Windthrow and salvage logging in an old-growth hemlock-northern hardwoods forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, K.D.; Schulte, L.A.; Guntenspergen, G.R.

    2009-01-01

    Although the initial response to salvage (also known as, post-disturbance or sanitary) logging is known to vary among system components, little is known about longer term forest recovery. We examine forest overstory, understory, soil, and microtopographic response 25 years after a 1977 severe wind disturbance on the Flambeau River State Forest in Wisconsin, USA, a portion of which was salvage logged. Within this former old-growth hemlock-northern hardwoods forest, tree dominance has shifted from Eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) to broad-leaf deciduous species (Ulmus americana, Acer saccharum, Tilia americana, Populus tremuloides, and Betula alleghaniensis) in both the salvaged and unsalvaged areas. While the biological legacies of pre-disturbance seedlings, saplings, and mature trees were initially more abundant in the unsalvaged area, regeneration through root suckers and stump sprouts was common in both areas. After 25 years, tree basal area, sapling density, shrub layer density, and seedling cover had converged between unsalvaged and salvaged areas. In contrast, understory herb communities differed between salvaged and unsalvaged forest, with salvaged forest containing significantly higher understory herb richness and cover, and greater dominance of species benefiting from disturbance, especially Solidago species. Soil bulk density, pH, organic carbon content, and organic nitrogen content were also significantly higher in the salvaged area. The structural legacy of tip-up microtopography remains more pronounced in the unsalvaged area, with significantly taller tip-up mounds and deeper pits. Mosses and some forest herbs, including Athyrium filix-femina and Hydrophyllum virginianum, showed strong positive responses to this tip-up microrelief, highlighting the importance of these structural legacies for understory biodiversity. In sum, although the pathways of recovery differed, this forest appeared to be as resilient to the compound disturbances of windthrow

  5. Stochastic models for tumoral growth

    OpenAIRE

    Escudero, Carlos

    2006-01-01

    Strong experimental evidence has indicated that tumor growth belongs to the molecular beam epitaxy universality class. This type of growth is characterized by the constraint of cell proliferation to the tumor border, and surface diffusion of cells at the growing edge. Tumor growth is thus conceived as a competition for space between the tumor and the host, and cell diffusion at the tumor border is an optimal strategy adopted for minimizing the pressure and helping tumor development. Two stoch...

  6. Thirty-two years of change in an old-growth Ohio beech-maple forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runkle, James R

    2013-05-01

    Old-growth forests dominated by understory-tolerant tree species are among forest types most likely to be in equilibrium. However, documentation of the degree to which they are in equilibrium over decades-long time periods is lacking. Changes in climate, pathogens, and land use all are likely to impact stand characteristics and species composition, even in these forests. Here, 32 years of vegetation changes in an old-growth beech (Fagus grandifolia)-sugar maple (Acer saccharum) forest in Hueston Woods, southwest Ohio, USA, are summarized. These changes involve canopy composition and structure, turnover in snags, and development of vegetation in treefall gaps. Stand basal area and canopy density have changed little in 32 years. However, beech has decreased in canopy importance (49% to 32%) while sugar maple has increased (32% to 47%). Annual mortality was about 1.3% throughout the study period. Mortality rates increased with stem size, but the fraction of larger stems increased due to ingrowth from smaller size classes. Beech was represented by more very large stems than small canopy stems: over time, death of those larger stems with inadequate replacement has caused the decrease in beech importance. Sugar maple was represented by more small canopy stems whose growth has increased its importance. The changes in beech and sugar maple relative importance are hypothesized to be due to forest fragmentation mostly from the early 1800s with some possible additional effects associated with the formation of the state park. Snag densities (12-16 snags/ha) and formation rates (1-3 snags.ha(-1).yr(-1)) remained consistent. The treefall gaps previously studied are closing, with a few, large stems remaining. Death of gap border trees occurs consistently enough to favor species able to combine growth in gaps and survival in the understory.

  7. Monitoring, modelling and managing Canada's forest carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurz, W.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents information concerning the management of carbon stocks both globally and in Canada, with reference to the fact that forests may contribute to carbon emissions problems. Global fossil carbon emissions statistics were provided, as well as data of forest area per capita in Canada and various countries. Details of forest management options and carbon accounting with reference to the Kyoto Protocol were reviewed. An explanation of forest management credits in national accounts was provided. An explanation of carbon sinks and carbon sources was also presented, along with details of stand level carbon dynamics. A model for calculating landscape level carbon stocks was presented, with reference to increasing and decreasing disturbances. A hypothetical landscape example was provided. It was concluded that age-class structure affect the amount of carbon stored in landscape; age-class structure also affect carbon dynamics; and responses reflect the change in disturbance regimes. An overview of international reporting requirements was presented. Canadian harvests equal 54,000 tonnes of carbon per year. It was recommended that managed forests could increase carbon in forests while also managing carbon harvests to meet society's needs. A chart presenting forest management details was presented, along with a hypothetical landscape example and a forecast for cumulative changes after 50 years, The benefits and challenges of forest management were reviewed as well as options regarding salvaging and deforestation avoidance. A carbon budget model was presented. It was concluded that forests in Canada could be used in a greenhouse gas management strategy. However, changes in disturbance may mean the difference between net source or net sink. Details of biomass were presented and multi-mode combustion facilities. The feasibility of biomass as a fuel source was discussed, with reference to hydrogen fuel. Gas composition profiles were provided, as well as details of

  8. Semantic World Modelling and Data Management in a 4d Forest Simulation and Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roßmann, J.; Hoppen, M.; Bücken, A.

    2013-08-01

    Various types of 3D simulation applications benefit from realistic forest models. They range from flight simulators for entertainment to harvester simulators for training and tree growth simulations for research and planning. Our 4D forest simulation and information system integrates the necessary methods for data extraction, modelling and management. Using modern methods of semantic world modelling, tree data can efficiently be extracted from remote sensing data. The derived forest models contain position, height, crown volume, type and diameter of each tree. This data is modelled using GML-based data models to assure compatibility and exchangeability. A flexible approach for database synchronization is used to manage the data and provide caching, persistence, a central communication hub for change distribution, and a versioning mechanism. Combining various simulation techniques and data versioning, the 4D forest simulation and information system can provide applications with "both directions" of the fourth dimension. Our paper outlines the current state, new developments, and integration of tree extraction, data modelling, and data management. It also shows several applications realized with the system.

  9. Modelling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V.K.; Melton, J.R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model

  10. Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

    2010-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

  11. Drought stress, growth and nonstructural carbohydrate dynamics of pine trees in a semi-arid forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Tamir; Hoch, Günter; Yakir, Dan; Körner, Christian

    2014-09-01

    In trees exposed to prolonged drought, both carbon uptake (C source) and growth (C sink) typically decrease. This correlation raises two important questions: (i) to what degree is tree growth limited by C availability; and (ii) is growth limited by concurrent C storage (e.g., as nonstructural carbohydrates, NSC)? To test the relationships between drought, growth and C reserves, we monitored the changes in NSC levels and constructed stem growth chronologies of mature Pinus halepensis Miller trees of three drought stress levels growing in Yatir forest, Israel, at the dry distribution limit of forests. Moderately stressed and stressed trees showed 34 and 14% of the stem growth, 71 and 31% of the sap flux density, and 79 and 66% of the final needle length of healthy trees in 2012. In spite of these large reductions in growth and sap flow, both starch and soluble sugar concentrations in the branches of these trees were similar in all trees throughout the dry season (2-4% dry mass). At the same time, the root starch concentrations of moderately stressed and stressed trees were 47 and 58% of those of healthy trees, but never drought there is more than one way for a tree to maintain a positive C balance. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Mechanistic model for microbial growth on hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallee, F M; Blanch, H W

    1977-12-01

    Based on available information describing the transport and consumption of insoluble alkanes, a mechanistic model is proposed for microbial growth on hydrocarbons. The model describes the atypical growth kinetics observed, and has implications in the design of large scale equipment for single cell protein (SCP) manufacture from hydrocarbons. The model presents a framework for comparison of the previously published experimental kinetic data.

  13. Structural Equation Modeling: Theory and Applications in Forest Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzeng Yih Lam

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystem dynamics are driven by a complex array of simultaneous cause-and-effect relationships. Understanding this complex web requires specialized analytical techniques such as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM. The SEM framework and implementation steps are outlined in this study, and we then demonstrate the technique by application to overstory-understory relationships in mature Douglas-fir forests in the northwestern USA. A SEM model was formulated with (1 a path model representing the effects of successively higher layers of vegetation on late-seral herbs through processes such as light attenuation and (2 a measurement model accounting for measurement errors. The fitted SEM model suggested a direct negative effect of light attenuation on late-seral herbs cover but a direct positive effect of northern aspect. Moreover, many processes have indirect effects mediated through midstory vegetation. SEM is recommended as a forest management tool for designing silvicultural treatments and systems for attaining complex arrays of management objectives.

  14. Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerman, Susannah B.; Nislow, Keith H.; Nowak, David J.; DeStefano, Stephen; King, David I.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd

    2014-01-01

    The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat to sustain bird and other wildlife populations. The primary goal of this study was to integrate wildlife suitability indices to an existing national urban forest assessment tool, i-Tree. We quantified available habitat characteristics of urban forests for ten northeastern U.S. cities, and summarized bird habitat relationships from the literature in terms of variables that were represented in the i-Tree datasets. With these data, we generated habitat suitability equations for nine bird species representing a range of life history traits and conservation status that predicts the habitat suitability based on i-Tree data. We applied these equations to the urban forest datasets to calculate the overall habitat suitability for each city and the habitat suitability for different types of land-use (e.g., residential, commercial, parkland) for each bird species. The proposed habitat models will help guide wildlife managers, urban planners, and landscape designers who require specific information such as desirable habitat conditions within an urban management project to help improve the suitability of urban forests for birds.

  15. Estimating Carbon Dynamics in an Intact Lowland Mixed Dipterocarp Forest Using a Forest Carbon Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jongyeol Lee

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Intact dipterocarp forests in Asia act as crucial carbon (C reservoirs, and it is therefore important to investigate the C dynamics in these forests. We estimated C dynamics, together with net ecosystem production (NEP, in an intact tropical dipterocarp forest of Brunei Darussalam. Fifty-four simulation units (plots; 20 m × 20 m were established and initial C stocks were determined via direct field measurement. The C dynamics were annually simulated with a regression model and the Forest Biomass and Dead organic matter Carbon (FBDC model. The initial C stock (Mg C·ha−1 of biomass, litter, dead wood and mineral soil were 213.1 ± 104.8, 2.0 ± 0.8, 31.3 ± 38.8, and 80.7 ± 15.5, respectively. Their annual changes (Mg C·ha−1·year−1 were 3.2 ± 1.1, 0.2 ± 0.2, −3.7 ± 6.1, and −0.3 ± 1.1, respectively. NEP was −0.6 ± 6.1 Mg C·ha−1·year−1, showing large heterogeneity among the plots. The initial C stocks of biomass and dead wood, biomass turnover rates and dead wood decay rates were elucidated as dominant factors determining NEP in a sensitivity analysis. Accordingly, investigation on those input data can constrain an uncertainty in determining NEP in the intact tropical forests.

  16. The Waswanipi Cree Model Forest: Demonstrating Aboriginal leadership in sustainable forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jolly, A.

    1999-09-01

    Experiences of the Waswanipi Cree community in being partners in sustainable forest management are discussed. The Waswanipi Cree Model Forest was designated as such in 1997. Since then, it has come to be seen as a forum for the community to express its needs, goals and objectives for the future, and as the first opportunity for the Cree community to exercise leadership and decision-making authority related to land management issues. The Waswanipi land is situated on the southernmost tip of eastern James Bay. It extends to some 35,000 sq km, divided into 52 family hunting territories, called traplines. Each trapline has a designated custodian, who is responsible for ensuring that wildlife is harvested in a sustainable manner. Community life is organized around the traplines, although families will sometimes temporarily relocate close to paid employment opportunities. Nevertheless, the purpose of employment is always to return to the bush, with sufficient materials and supplies to last the hunting and trapping season. Prior to the designation of the Model Forest, the major problems have been the rate and extent of forestry activities on Cree land by outside timber companies, the absence of opportunities for the Cree to have a meaningful role in decisions that impacted their future and the difficulties of convincing government experts and forestry companies to allow the Cree to bring their experience-based knowledge to bear on forest resource management issues. The manner in which the new partnership resulting from the designation of the Model Forest is opening the way to better understanding, mitigation of the negative effects of forestry operations on traplines, mediation of conflicts between trappers and forestry companies with timber licences on Waswanipi land, are described as one of the major achievements of the Model Forest Program. The rate and extent of cutting continues to be a problem, however, there are signs of a growing understanding among the timber

  17. Early subtropical forest growth is driven by community mean trait values and functional diversity rather than the abiotic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kröber, Wenzel; Li, Ying; Härdtle, Werner; Ma, Keping; Schmid, Bernhard; Schmidt, Karsten; Scholten, Thomas; Seidler, Gunnar; von Oheimb, Goddert; Welk, Erik; Wirth, Christian; Bruelheide, Helge

    2015-09-01

    While functional diversity (FD) has been shown to be positively related to a number of ecosystem functions including biomass production, it may have a much less pronounced effect than that of environmental factors or species-specific properties. Leaf and wood traits can be considered particularly relevant to tree growth, as they reflect a trade-off between resources invested into growth and persistence. Our study focussed on the degree to which early forest growth was driven by FD, the environment (11 variables characterizing abiotic habitat conditions), and community-weighted mean (CWM) values of species traits in the context of a large-scale tree diversity experiment (BEF-China). Growth rates of trees with respect to crown diameter were aggregated across 231 plots (hosting between one and 23 tree species) and related to environmental variables, FD, and CWM, the latter two of which were based on 41 plant functional traits. The effects of each of the three predictor groups were analyzed separately by mixed model optimization and jointly by variance partitioning. Numerous single traits predicted plot-level tree growth, both in the models based on CWMs and FD, but none of the environmental variables was able to predict tree growth. In the best models, environment and FD explained only 4 and 31% of variation in crown growth rates, respectively, while CWM trait values explained 42%. In total, the best models accounted for 51% of crown growth. The marginal role of the selected environmental variables was unexpected, given the high topographic heterogeneity and large size of the experiment, as was the significant impact of FD, demonstrating that positive diversity effects already occur during the early stages in tree plantations.

  18. Testing mechanistic models of growth in insects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maino, James L; Kearney, Michael R

    2015-11-22

    Insects are typified by their small size, large numbers, impressive reproductive output and rapid growth. However, insect growth is not simply rapid; rather, insects follow a qualitatively distinct trajectory to many other animals. Here we present a mechanistic growth model for insects and show that increasing specific assimilation during the growth phase can explain the near-exponential growth trajectory of insects. The presented model is tested against growth data on 50 insects, and compared against other mechanistic growth models. Unlike the other mechanistic models, our growth model predicts energy reserves per biomass to increase with age, which implies a higher production efficiency and energy density of biomass in later instars. These predictions are tested against data compiled from the literature whereby it is confirmed that insects increase their production efficiency (by 24 percentage points) and energy density (by 4 J mg(-1)) between hatching and the attainment of full size. The model suggests that insects achieve greater production efficiencies and enhanced growth rates by increasing specific assimilation and increasing energy reserves per biomass, which are less costly to maintain than structural biomass. Our findings illustrate how the explanatory and predictive power of mechanistic growth models comes from their grounding in underlying biological processes. © 2015 The Author(s).

  19. Response of old-growth conifers to reduction in stand density in western Oregon forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latham, P.; Tappeiner, J. C.

    2002-01-01

    The positive growth response of healthy young trees to density reduction is well known. In contrast, large old trees are usually thought to be intrinsically limited in their ability to respond to increased growing space; therefore, density reduction is seldom used in stands of old-growth trees. We tested the null hypothesis that old-growth trees are incapable of responding with increased growth following density reduction. The diameter growth response of 271 Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws) and sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana Dougl.) trees ranging in age from 158 to 650 years was examined 20 to 50 years after density reduction. Density reduction involved either light thinning with removal of less vigorous trees, or shelterwood treatments in which overstory trees were not removed. Ratios of basal area growth after treatment to basal area growth before treatment, and several other measures of growth, all indicated that the old trees sometimes benefited and were not harmed by density reduction. Growth increased by 10% or more for 68% of the trees in treated stands, and nearly 30% of trees increased growth by over 50%. This growth response persisted for at least 20 years. During this 20-year period, only three trees in treated stands (1.5%) exhibited a rapid decrease in growth, whereas growth decreased in 64% of trees in untreated stands. The length of time before a growth response to density reduction occurred varied from 5 to 25 years, with the greatest growth response often occurring 20 to 25 years after treatment. These results have important implications both for the basic biology of aging in woody plants as well as for silvicultural practices in forests with old-growth trees.

  20. Reducing uncertainty for estimating forest carbon stocks and dynamics using integrated remote sensing, forest inventory and process-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.; Joetzjer, E.; Maignan, F.; Luyssaert, S.; Barichivich, J.

    2015-12-01

    Accurately estimating forest biomass and forest carbon dynamics requires new integrated remote sensing, forest inventory, and carbon cycle modeling approaches. Presently, there is an increasing and urgent need to reduce forest biomass uncertainty in order to meet the requirements of carbon mitigation treaties, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). Here we describe a new parameterization and assimilation methodology used to estimate tropical forest biomass using the ORCHIDEE-CAN dynamic global vegetation model. ORCHIDEE-CAN simulates carbon uptake and allocation to individual trees using a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis, respiration and other first-order processes. The model is first parameterized using forest inventory data to constrain background mortality rates, i.e., self-thinning, and productivity. Satellite remote sensing data for forest structure, i.e., canopy height, is used to constrain simulated forest stand conditions using a look-up table approach to match canopy height distributions. The resulting forest biomass estimates are provided for spatial grids that match REDD+ project boundaries and aim to provide carbon estimates for the criteria described in the IPCC Good Practice Guidelines Tier 3 category. With the increasing availability of forest structure variables derived from high-resolution LIDAR, RADAR, and optical imagery, new methodologies and applications with process-based carbon cycle models are becoming more readily available to inform land management.

  1. Trajectories and models of individual growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arseniy Karkach

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available It has long been recognized that the patterns of growth play an important role in the evolution of age trajectories of fertility and mortality (Williams, 1957. Life history studies would benefit from a better understanding of strategies and mechanisms of growth, but still no comparative research on individual growth strategies has been conducted. Growth patterns and methods have been shaped by evolution and a great variety of them are observed. Two distinct patterns - determinate and indeterminate growth - are of a special interest for these studies since they present qualitatively different outcomes of evolution. We attempt to draw together studies covering growth in plant and animal species across a wide range of phyla focusing primarily on the noted qualitative features. We also review mathematical descriptions of growth, namely empirical growth curves and growth models, and discuss the directions of future research.

  2. Modeling the temporal dynamics of nonstructural carbohydrate pools in forest trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2017-11-09

    Trees store carbohydrates, in the form of sugars and starch, as reserves to be used to power both future growth as well as to support day-to-day metabolic functions. These reserves are particularly important in the context of how trees cope with disturbance and stress—for example, as related to pest outbreaks, wind or ice damage, and extreme climate events. In this project, we measured the size of carbon reserves in forest trees, and determined how quickly these reserves are used and replaced—i.e., their “turnover time”. Our work was conducted at Harvard Forest, a temperate deciduous forest in central Massachusetts. Through field sampling, laboratory-based chemical analyses, and allometric modeling, we scaled these measurements up to whole-tree NSC budgets. We used these data to test and improve computer simulation models of carbon flow through forest ecosystems. Our modeling focused on the mathematical representation of these stored carbon reserves, and we examined the sensitivity of model performance to different model structures. This project contributes to DOE’s goal to improve next-generation models of the earth system, and to understand the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

  3. Assessing tropical rainforest growth traits: Data - Model fusion in the Congo basin and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietsch, Stephan

    2017-04-01

    Virgin forest ecosystems resemble the key reference level for natural tree growth dynamics. The mosaic cycle concept describes such dynamics as local disequilibria driven by patch level succession cycles of breakdown, regeneration, juvenescence and old growth. These cycles, however, may involve different traits of light demanding and shade tolerant species assemblies. In this work a data model fusion concept will be introduced to assess the differences in growth dynamics of the mosaic cycle of the Western Congolian Lowland Rainforest ecosystem. Field data from 34 forest patches located in an ice age forest refuge, recently pinpointed to the ground and still devoid of direct human impact up to today - resemble the data base. A 3D error assessment procedure versus BGC model simulations for the 34 patches revealed two different growth dynamics, consistent with observed growth traits of pioneer and late succession species assemblies of the Western Congolian Lowland rainforest. An application of the same procedure to Central American Pacific rainforests confirms the strength of the 3D error field data model fusion concept to Central American Pacific rainforests confirms the strength of the 3D error field data model fusion concept to assess different growth traits of the mosaic cycle of natural forest dynamics.

  4. Forecasting forest development through modeling based on the legacy of forest structure over the past 43 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.Z. Baskent

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires comprehensive coverage of data to reflect both the historical legacy and the future development of forests.  This study focuses on analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of forests over the past 43 years to help better forecast the future development of forest under various management strategies.Area of study: The area is situated in Karaisalı district of Adana city in the southeastern corner of Turkey.Material and methods: The historical pattern from 1969 to 2012 was assessed with digital forest cover type maps, produced with high resolution aerial photo interpretation using Geographic Information Systems (GIS. The forest development over the next 120 years was forecasted using ecosystem-based multiple use forest management model (ETÇAP to understand the cause-effect relationships under various management strategies.Main results: The result showed that over the past 43 years while total forest areas decreased about 1194 ha (4%, the productive forest areas increased about 5397 ha (18% with a decrease of degraded forest (5824 ha, 20% and increase of maquis areas (2212 ha, 7%.The forecast of forest development under traditional management strategy resulted in an unsustainable forest due to broken initial age class structure, yet generated more total harvest (11% due to 88% relaxing of even timber flow constraint. While more volume could be harvested under traditional management conditions, the sustainability of future forest is significantly jeopardized.Research highlights: This result trongly implies that it is essential adopting modeling techniques to understand forest dynamics and forecast the future development comprehensively.Keywords: Forest management; simulation; optimization; forest dynamics; land use change.

  5. Model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

    1980-01-01

    A linear compartment model with donor-controlled flows between compartments was designed to describe and simulate the behavior of plutonium ( 239 240 Pu) in a contaminated forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, TN. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the plutonium in the ecosystem resides in biota. Soil is the major repository of plutonium in the forest, and exchanges of plutonium between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of plutonium. Variation in predicted steady-state amounts of plutonium in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicates that our ability to develop models of plutonium transport in ecosystems should improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in plutonium data

  6. Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

    1998-03-01

    The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man. 42 refs, 3 tabs, 9 figs.

  7. Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

    1998-03-01

    The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man

  8. The steady-state mosaic of disturbance and succession across an old-growth Central Amazon forest landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Jeffrey Q; Negron-Juarez, Robinson I; Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Di Vittorio, Alan; Tews, Joerg; Roberts, Dar; Ribeiro, Gabriel H P M; Trumbore, Susan E; Higuchi, Niro

    2013-03-05

    Old-growth forest ecosystems comprise a mosaic of patches in different successional stages, with the fraction of the landscape in any particular state relatively constant over large temporal and spatial scales. The size distribution and return frequency of disturbance events, and subsequent recovery processes, determine to a large extent the spatial scale over which this old-growth steady state develops. Here, we characterize this mosaic for a Central Amazon forest by integrating field plot data, remote sensing disturbance probability distribution functions, and individual-based simulation modeling. Results demonstrate that a steady state of patches of varying successional age occurs over a relatively large spatial scale, with important implications for detecting temporal trends on plots that sample a small fraction of the landscape. Long highly significant stochastic runs averaging 1.0 Mg biomass⋅ha(-1)⋅y(-1) were often punctuated by episodic disturbance events, resulting in a sawtooth time series of hectare-scale tree biomass. To maximize the detection of temporal trends for this Central Amazon site (e.g., driven by CO2 fertilization), plots larger than 10 ha would provide the greatest sensitivity. A model-based analysis of fractional mortality across all gap sizes demonstrated that 9.1-16.9% of tree mortality was missing from plot-based approaches, underscoring the need to combine plot and remote-sensing methods for estimating net landscape carbon balance. Old-growth tropical forests can exhibit complex large-scale structure driven by disturbance and recovery cycles, with ecosystem and community attributes of hectare-scale plots exhibiting continuous dynamic departures from a steady-state condition.

  9. Estimation and modeling of forest attributes across large spatial scales using BiomeBGC, high-resolution imagery, LiDAR data, and inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golinkoff, Jordan Seth

    The accurate estimation of forest attributes at many different spatial scales is a critical problem. Forest landowners may be interested in estimating timber volume, forest biomass, and forest structure to determine their forest's condition and value. Counties and states may be interested to learn about their forests to develop sustainable management plans and policies related to forests, wildlife, and climate change. Countries and consortiums of countries need information about their forests to set global and national targets to deal with issues of climate change and deforestation as well as to set national targets and understand the state of their forest at a given point in time. This dissertation approaches these questions from two perspectives. The first perspective uses the process model Biome-BGC paired with inventory and remote sensing data to make inferences about a current forest state given known climate and site variables. Using a model of this type, future climate data can be used to make predictions about future forest states as well. An example of this work applied to a forest in northern California is presented. The second perspective of estimating forest attributes uses high resolution aerial imagery paired with light detection and ranging (LiDAR) remote sensing data to develop statistical estimates of forest structure. Two approaches within this perspective are presented: a pixel based approach and an object based approach. Both approaches can serve as the platform on which models (either empirical growth and yield models or process models) can be run to generate inferences about future forest state and current forest biogeochemical cycling.

  10. The Tribal Perspective of Old Growth in Frequent-fire Forests - Its History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria Yazzie

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Anyone who has not lived in "Indian country" cannot understand just how extensively the United States government and its laws affect Native Americans and their natural resource management. These effects are sobering, and touch upon sensitive issues that all Native Americans hold within us. In this article, I outline the historic cycle of tribal entities, and characterize today's tribal self-determination in forest management. I provide an historical account from the "colonial" period and its use of the Doctrine of Discovery to the relations between the United States government and Native Americans from the 18th through the 20th centuries, during which time Native Americans struggled to establish their legal status as tribes, and solidify their land base to sustain and conserve culturally important lands, including areas of old-growth forests, to the current self-determination and self-governance potential of Indian tribes. More importantly, I discuss the cultural connectivity that Native Americans have to the land, and address the unique inherent right of tribes to integrate this cultural view into current forest management, including the protection of old-growth forests, on their reservations.

  11. A Linked Model for Simulating Stand Development and Growth Processes of Loblolly Pine

    Science.gov (United States)

    V. Clark Baldwin; Phillip M. Dougherty; Harold E. Burkhart

    1998-01-01

    Linking models of different scales (e.g., process, tree-stand-ecosystem) is essential for furthering our understanding of stand, climatic, and edaphic effects on tree growth and forest productivity. Moreover, linking existing models that differ in scale and levels of resolution quickly identifies knowledge gaps in information required to scale from one level to another...

  12. Growth responses of trees and understory plants to nitrogen fertilization in a subtropical forest in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Di; Li, Peng; Fang, Wenjing; Xu, Jun; Luo, Yongkai; Yan, Zhengbing; Zhu, Biao; Wang, Jingjing; Xu, Xiaoniu; Fang, Jingyun

    2017-07-01

    Reactive nitrogen (N) increase in the biosphere has been a noteworthy aspect of global change, producing considerable ecological effects on the functioning and dynamics of the terrestrial ecosystems. A number of observational studies have explored responses of plants to experimentally simulated N enrichment in boreal and temperate forests. Here we investigate how the dominant trees and different understory plants respond to experimental N enrichment in a subtropical forest in China. We conducted a 3.4-year N fertilization experiment in an old-aged subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in eastern China with three treatment levels applied to nine 20 m × 20 m plots and replicated in three blocks. We divided the plants into trees, saplings, shrubs (including tree seedlings), and ground-cover plants (ferns) according to the growth forms, and then measured the absolute and relative basal area increments of trees and saplings and the aboveground biomass of understory shrubs and ferns. We further grouped individuals of the dominant tree species, Castanopsis eyrei, into three size classes to investigate their respective growth responses to the N fertilization. Our results showed that the plot-averaged absolute and relative growth rates of basal area and aboveground biomass of trees were not affected by N fertilization. Across the individuals of C. eyrei, the small trees with a DBH (diameter at breast height) of 5-10 cm declined by 66.4 and 59.5 %, respectively, in N50 (50 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and N100 fertilized plots (100 kg N ha-1 yr-1), while the growth of median and large trees with a DBH of > 10 cm did not significantly change with the N fertilization. The growth rate of small trees, saplings, and the aboveground biomass of understory shrubs and ground-cover ferns decreased significantly in the N-fertilized plots. Our findings suggested that N might not be a limiting nutrient in this mature subtropical forest, and that the limitation of other nutrients in the forest

  13. Growth responses of trees and understory plants to nitrogen fertilization in a subtropical forest in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Tian

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (N increase in the biosphere has been a noteworthy aspect of global change, producing considerable ecological effects on the functioning and dynamics of the terrestrial ecosystems. A number of observational studies have explored responses of plants to experimentally simulated N enrichment in boreal and temperate forests. Here we investigate how the dominant trees and different understory plants respond to experimental N enrichment in a subtropical forest in China. We conducted a 3.4-year N fertilization experiment in an old-aged subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in eastern China with three treatment levels applied to nine 20 m  ×  20 m plots and replicated in three blocks. We divided the plants into trees, saplings, shrubs (including tree seedlings, and ground-cover plants (ferns according to the growth forms, and then measured the absolute and relative basal area increments of trees and saplings and the aboveground biomass of understory shrubs and ferns. We further grouped individuals of the dominant tree species, Castanopsis eyrei, into three size classes to investigate their respective growth responses to the N fertilization. Our results showed that the plot-averaged absolute and relative growth rates of basal area and aboveground biomass of trees were not affected by N fertilization. Across the individuals of C. eyrei, the small trees with a DBH (diameter at breast height of 5–10 cm declined by 66.4 and 59.5 %, respectively, in N50 (50 kg N ha−1 yr−1 and N100 fertilized plots (100 kg N ha−1 yr−1, while the growth of median and large trees with a DBH of  >  10 cm did not significantly change with the N fertilization. The growth rate of small trees, saplings, and the aboveground biomass of understory shrubs and ground-cover ferns decreased significantly in the N-fertilized plots. Our findings suggested that N might not be a limiting nutrient in this mature subtropical

  14. Nonconvex Model of Material Growth: Mathematical Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganghoffer, J. F.; Plotnikov, P. I.; Sokolowski, J.

    2018-06-01

    The model of volumetric material growth is introduced in the framework of finite elasticity. The new results obtained for the model are presented with complete proofs. The state variables include the deformations, temperature and the growth factor matrix function. The existence of global in time solutions for the quasistatic deformations boundary value problem coupled with the energy balance and the evolution of the growth factor is shown. The mathematical results can be applied to a wide class of growth models in mechanics and biology.

  15. Implications of rural-urban migration for conservation of the Atlantic Forest and urban growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970-2030).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izquierdo, Andrea E; Grau, Héctor R; Aide, T Mitchell

    2011-05-01

    Global trends of increasing rural-urban migration and population urbanization could provide opportunities for nature conservation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture. We analyzed the role of rural population as a driver of deforestation and its contribution to urban population growth from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, a global conservation priority. We created future land-use-cover scenarios based on human demographic parameters and the relationship between rural population and land-cover change between 1970 and 2006. In 2006, native forest covered 50% of the province, but by 2030 all scenarios predicted a decrease that ranged from 18 to 39% forest cover. Between 1970 and 2001, rural migrants represented 20% of urban population growth and are expected to represent less than 10% by 2030. This modeling approach shows how rural-urban migration and land-use planning can favor nature conservation with little impact on urban areas.

  16. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

    1999-01-01

    No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

  17. Pollution externalities in a Schumpeterian growth model

    OpenAIRE

    Koesler, Simon

    2010-01-01

    This paper extends a standard Schumpeterian growth model to include an environmental dimension. Thereby, it explicitly links the pollution intensity of economic activity to technological progress. In a second step, it investigates the effect of pollution on economic growth under the assumption that pollution intensities are related to technological progress. Several conclusions emerge from the model. In equilibrium, the economy follows a balanced growth path. The effect of pollution on the ec...

  18. Modeling and Validation across Scales: Parametrizing the effect of the forested landscape

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dellwik, Ebba; Badger, Merete; Angelou, Nikolas

    be transferred into a parametrization of forests in wind models. The presentation covers three scales: the single tree, the forest edges and clearings, and the large-scale forested landscape in which the forest effects are parameterized with a roughness length. Flow modeling results and validation against...

  19. Ecophysiological modeling of photosynthesis and carbon allocation to the tree stem in the boreal forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Gennaretti

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available A better understanding of the coupling between photosynthesis and carbon allocation in the boreal forest, together with its associated environmental factors and mechanistic rules, is crucial to accurately predict boreal forest carbon stocks and fluxes, which are significant components of the global carbon budget. Here, we adapted the MAIDEN ecophysiological forest model to consider important processes for boreal tree species, such as nonlinear acclimation of photosynthesis to temperature changes, canopy development as a function of previous-year climate variables influencing bud formation and the temperature dependence of carbon partition in summer. We tested these modifications in the eastern Canadian taiga using black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill. B.S.P. gross primary production and ring width data. MAIDEN explains 90 % of the observed daily gross primary production variability, 73 % of the annual ring width variability and 20–30 % of its high-frequency component (i.e., when decadal trends are removed. The positive effect on stem growth due to climate warming over the last several decades is well captured by the model. In addition, we illustrate how we improve the model with each introduced model adaptation and compare the model results with those of linear response functions. Our results demonstrate that MAIDEN simulates robust relationships with the most important climate variables (those detected by classical response-function analysis and is a powerful tool for understanding how environmental factors interact with black spruce ecophysiology to influence present-day and future boreal forest carbon fluxes.

  20. Ecophysiological modeling of photosynthesis and carbon allocation to the tree stem in the boreal forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Boucher, Etienne; Berninger, Frank; Arseneault, Dominique; Guiot, Joel

    2017-11-01

    A better understanding of the coupling between photosynthesis and carbon allocation in the boreal forest, together with its associated environmental factors and mechanistic rules, is crucial to accurately predict boreal forest carbon stocks and fluxes, which are significant components of the global carbon budget. Here, we adapted the MAIDEN ecophysiological forest model to consider important processes for boreal tree species, such as nonlinear acclimation of photosynthesis to temperature changes, canopy development as a function of previous-year climate variables influencing bud formation and the temperature dependence of carbon partition in summer. We tested these modifications in the eastern Canadian taiga using black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) gross primary production and ring width data. MAIDEN explains 90 % of the observed daily gross primary production variability, 73 % of the annual ring width variability and 20-30 % of its high-frequency component (i.e., when decadal trends are removed). The positive effect on stem growth due to climate warming over the last several decades is well captured by the model. In addition, we illustrate how we improve the model with each introduced model adaptation and compare the model results with those of linear response functions. Our results demonstrate that MAIDEN simulates robust relationships with the most important climate variables (those detected by classical response-function analysis) and is a powerful tool for understanding how environmental factors interact with black spruce ecophysiology to influence present-day and future boreal forest carbon fluxes.

  1. Radiation dose from Chernobyl forests: assessment using the 'forestpath' model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schell, W.R.; Linkov, I.; Belinkaia, E.; Rimkevich, V.; Zmushko, Yu.; Lutsko, A.; Fifield, F.W.; Flowers, A.G.; Wells, G.

    1996-01-01

    Contaminated forests can contribute significantly to human radiation dose for a few decades after initial contamination. Exposure occurs through harvesting the trees, manufacture and use of forest products for construction materials and paper production, and the consumption of food harvested from forests. Certain groups of the population, such as wild animal hunters and harvesters of berries, herbs and mushrooms, can have particularly large intakes of radionuclides from natural food products. Forestry workers have been found to receive radiation doses several times higher than other groups in the same area. The generic radionuclide cycling model 'forestpath' is being applied to evaluate the human radiation dose and risks to population groups resulting from living and working near the contaminated forests. The model enables calculations to be made to predict the internal and external radiation doses at specific times following the accident. The model can be easily adjusted for dose calculations from other contamination scenarios (such as radionuclide deposition at a low and constant rate as well as complex deposition patterns). Experimental data collected in the forests of Southern Belarus are presented. These data, together with the results of epidemiological studies, are used for model calibration and validation

  2. Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

    1998-01-01

    The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

  3. Predictive models of forest logging residues of Triplochiton ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model developed indicated that logarithmic functions performed better than other form of equation. The findings of this study revealed that there is significant logging residues left to waste in the forest after timber harvest and quantifying this logging residue in terms of biomass model can serve as management tools in ...

  4. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Fernandes, P.M.; Fonseca, T.F.; Gillet, F.; Jöhnsson, A.M.; Merganičová, K.; Netherer, S.; Arpaci, A.; Bontemps, J.D.; Bugmann, H.; González-Olabarria, J.R.; Lasch, P.; Meredieu, C.; Moreira, F.; Schelhaas, M.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling

  5. Deforestation and Rice: Using Methods in Modeling and Remote Sensing to Project Patterns of Forest Change in Eastern Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, A. H.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Fischer, R.; Huth, A.; Shugart, H. H.

    2013-12-01

    In the species rich tropics, forest conservation is often eclipsed by anthropogenic disturbance, resulting in a heightened need for an accurate assessment of biomass and the gaining of predictive capability before these ecosystems disappear. The combination of multi-temporal remote sensing data, field data and forest growth modeling to quantify carbon stocks and flux is therefore of great importance. In this study, we utilize these methods to (1) improve forest biomass and carbon flux estimates for the study region in Eastern Madagascar, and (2) initialize an individual-based growth model that incorporates the anthropogenic factors causing deforestation to project ecosystem response to future environmental change. Recent studies have shown that there is a direct correlation between the international rice market and rates of deforestation in tropical countries such as Madagascar (see Minten et al., 2006). Further, although law protects the remaining forest areas, dictatorships and recent political unrest have lead to poor or non-existent enforcement of precious wood and forest protection over the past 35 years. Our approach combined multi-temporal remote sensing analysis and ecological modeling using a theoretical and mathematical approach to assess biomass change and to understand how tree growth and life history (growth response patterns) relate to past and present economic variability in Madagascar forests of the eastern Toamasina region. We measured rates of change of deforestation with respect to politics and the price of rice by classifying and comparing biomass using 30m Landsat during 5 political regime time periods (1985-1992, 1993-1996, 1997-2001, 2002-2008, 2009 to present). Forest biomass estimations were calibrated using forest inventory data collected over 3 growing seasons over the study region (130 small circular plots in primary forest). This information was then built into the previously parameterized (Armstrong et al., in prep and Fischer et al in

  6. Analysing Amazonian forest productivity using a new individual and trait-based model (TFS v.1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fyllas, N. M.; Gloor, E.; Mercado, L. M.; Sitch, S.; Quesada, C. A.; Domingues, T. F.; Galbraith, D. R.; Torre-Lezama, A.; Vilanova, E.; Ramírez-Angulo, H.; Higuchi, N.; Neill, D. A.; Silveira, M.; Ferreira, L.; Aymard C., G. A.; Malhi, Y.; Phillips, O. L.; Lloyd, J.

    2014-07-01

    Repeated long-term censuses have revealed large-scale spatial patterns in Amazon basin forest structure and dynamism, with some forests in the west of the basin having up to a twice as high rate of aboveground biomass production and tree recruitment as forests in the east. Possible causes for this variation could be the climatic and edaphic gradients across the basin and/or the spatial distribution of tree species composition. To help understand causes of this variation a new individual-based model of tropical forest growth, designed to take full advantage of the forest census data available from the Amazonian Forest Inventory Network (RAINFOR), has been developed. The model allows for within-stand variations in tree size distribution and key functional traits and between-stand differences in climate and soil physical and chemical properties. It runs at the stand level with four functional traits - leaf dry mass per area (Ma), leaf nitrogen (NL) and phosphorus (PL) content and wood density (DW) varying from tree to tree - in a way that replicates the observed continua found within each stand. We first applied the model to validate canopy-level water fluxes at three eddy covariance flux measurement sites. For all three sites the canopy-level water fluxes were adequately simulated. We then applied the model at seven plots, where intensive measurements of carbon allocation are available. Tree-by-tree multi-annual growth rates generally agreed well with observations for small trees, but with deviations identified for larger trees. At the stand level, simulations at 40 plots were used to explore the influence of climate and soil nutrient availability on the gross (ΠG) and net (ΠN) primary production rates as well as the carbon use efficiency (CU). Simulated ΠG, ΠN and CU were not associated with temperature. On the other hand, all three measures of stand level productivity were positively related to both mean annual precipitation and soil nutrient status

  7. Ground cover in old-growth forests of the central hardwood region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; George R. Parker; Felix, Jr. Ponder

    1997-01-01

    Differences in ground cover (percent cover of litter, percent cover of vegetation and litter weight) in old-growth forests across this region are not well understood. We initiated a long-term study in a three-state region to enhance knowledge in this area. We present baseline results for ground cover and compare these data across productivity regions. Thirty 0.25-ac (0...

  8. Nutrient status and plant growth effects of forest soils in the Basin of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark E. Fenn; V.M. Perea-Estrada; L.I. de Bauer; M. Pérez-Suárez; D.R. Parker; V.M. Cetina-Alcalá

    2006-01-01

    The nutrient status of forest soils in the Mexico City Air Basin was evaluated by observing plant growth responses to fertilization with N, P or both nutrients combined. P deficiency was the most frequent condition for soil from two high pollution sites and N deficiency was greatest at a low N deposition site. Concentrations of Pb and Ni, and to a lesser extent Zn and...

  9. Assessing the protection function of Alpine forest ecosystems using BGC modelling theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pötzelsberger, E.; Hasenauer, H.; Petritsch, R.; Pietsch, S. A.

    2009-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the protection function of forests in Alpine areas by modelling the flux dynamics (water, carbon, nutrients) within a watershed as they may depend on the vegetation pattern and forest management impacts. The application case for this study was the catchment Schmittenbach, located in the province of Salzburg. Data available covered the hydrology (rainfall measurements from 1981 to 1998 and runoff measurements at the river Schmittenbach from 1981 to 2005), vegetation dynamics (currently 69% forest, predominantly Norway Spruce). The method of simulating the forest growth and water outflow was validated. For simulations of the key ecosystem processes (e.g. photosynthesis, carbon and nitrogen allocation in the different plant parts, litter fall, mineralisation, tree water uptake, transpiration, rainfall interception, evaporation, snow accumulation and snow melt, outflow of spare water) the biogeochemical ecosystem model Biome-BGC was applied. Relevant model extensions were the tree species specific parameter sets and the improved thinning regime. The model is sensitive to site characteristics and needs daily weather data and information on the atmospheric composition, which makes it sensitive to higher CO2-levels and climate change. For model validation 53 plots were selected covering the full range of site quality and stand age. Tree volume and soil was measured and compared with the respective model results. The outflow for the watershed was predicted by combining the simulated forest-outflow (derived from plot-outflow) with the outflow from the non-forest area (calculated with a fixed outflow/rainfall coefficient (OC)). The analysis of production and water related model outputs indicated that mechanistic modelling can be used as a tool to assess the performance of Alpine protection forests. The Water Use Efficiency (WUE), the ratio of Net primary production (NPP) and Transpiration, was found the highest for juvenile stands (

  10. Modeling mangrove biomass using remote sensing based age and growth estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomasino, D.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Feliciano, E. A.; Lee, S. K.; Trettin, C.; Mangora, M.; Rahman, M.

    2016-12-01

    Mangroves are highly regarded coastal forests because of their ecosystem services and high carbon storage potential. In addition, these forests can develop rapidly in locations where congenial environmental conditions and sediment supply are available. Monitoring the growth and age of developing mangrove forests is crucial for sustainable management and estimating carbon stocks. Combining imagery from radar and optical satellites (e.g., TanDEM-X and Landsat), we can estimate young mangrove growth and age at regional and continental scales. We used TanDEM-X radar interferometry for modeling canopy height in 2013 and Landsat to measure land cover change from 1990 to 2013. Annual NDVI composites were determined for each calendar year between 1990 and 2013. New land areas gained from the transition of water to vegetation were determined by the differences in annual NDVI composites and the reference year 2013. The year of the greatest NDVI difference that met the threshold criteria was used as the initial tree height (0 m). Annual canopy height growth rates were estimated by the duration between land generation times and 2013 canopy height models derived from TanDEM-X and very-high resolution optical data. In this presentation, we compare growth rates and biomass accumulation in mangrove forests at four river deltas; the Zambezi (Mozambique), Rufiji (Tanzania), Ganges (Bangladesh), and Mekong (Vietnam). The spatial patterns of growth rates coincided with characteristic successional paradigms and stream morphology, where the maximum growth rates typically occurred along prograding creek banks. Initial comparisons between height-only and growth-age biomass indicate that the latter tend to overestimate biomass for younger forest stands of similar height. Both the vertical (e.g., canopy height) and horizontal (e.g., expansion) growth rates measured from remote sensing can garner important information regarding mangrove succession and primary productivity. Continued research

  11. A model of forest floor carbon mass for United States forest types

    Science.gov (United States)

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

    2002-01-01

    Includes a large set of published values of forest floor mass and develop large-scale estimates of carbon mass according to region and forest type. Estimates of average forest floor carbon mass per hectare of forest applied to a 1997 summary forest inventory, sum to 4.5 Gt carbon stored in forests of the 48 contiguous United States.

  12. Effects of soil compaction on residual stand growth in central Appalachian hardwood forest: a preliminary case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jingxin Wang; Chris LeDoux; Michael Vanderberg; Li Yaoxiang

    2006-01-01

    A preliminary study that quantified the impacts of soil compaction on residual tree growth associated with ground-based skidding traffic intensity and turn payload size was investigated in the central Appalachian hardwood forest. The field study was carried out on a 20-acre tract of the West Virginia University Research Forest. Skid trails were laid out in 170' -...

  13. Crown plasticity and neighborhood interactions of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in an old-growth forest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröter, M.; Härdtle, W.; Oheimb, von G.

    2012-01-01

    Competition for canopy space is a process of major importance in forest dynamics. Although virgin and old-growth European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in Europe have been studied for many years, there are to date no studies of individual-tree crown plasticity and the way this is influenced by

  14. Possibilities and limitations of using historic provenance tests to infer forest species growth responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura P. Leites; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Andrew P. Robinson; Nicholas L. Crookston; Barry Jaquish

    2012-01-01

    Under projected changes in global climate, the growth and survival of existing forests will depend on their ability to adjust physiologically in response to environmental change. Quantifying their capacity to adjust and whether the response is species- or population-specific is important to guide forest management strategies. New analyses of historic provenance tests...

  15. Effects of tree size and spatial distribution on growth of ponderosa pine forests under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    C.W. Woodall; C.E. Fiedler; R.E. McRoberts

    2009-01-01

    Forest ecosystems may be actively managed toward heterogeneous stand structures to provide both economic (e.g., wood production and carbon credits) and environmental benefits (e.g., invasive pest resistance). In order to facilitate wider adoption of possibly more sustainable forest stand structures, defining growth expectations among alternative management scenarios is...

  16. Managing heart rot in live trees for wildlife habitat in young-growth forests of coastal Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul E. Hennon; Robin L. Mulvey

    2014-01-01

    Stem decays of living trees, known also as heart rots, are essential elements of wildlife habitat, especially for cavity-nesting birds and mammals. Stem decays are common features of old-growth forests of coastal Alaska, but are generally absent in young, managed forests. We offer several strategies for maintaining or restoring fungal stem decay in these managed...

  17. Nutrient status and plant growth effects of forest soils in the Basin of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fenn, M.E.; Perea-Estrada, V.M.; Bauer, L.I. de; Perez-Suarez, M.; Parker, D.R.; Cetina-Alcala, V.M.

    2006-01-01

    The nutrient status of forest soils in the Mexico City Air Basin was evaluated by observing plant growth responses to fertilization with N, P or both nutrients combined. P deficiency was the most frequent condition for soil from two high pollution sites and N deficiency was greatest at a low N deposition site. Concentrations of Pb and Ni, and to a lesser extent Zn and Co, were higher at the high pollution sites. However, positive plant growth responses to P and sometimes to N, and results of wheat root elongation bioassays, suggest that heavy metal concentrations were not directly phytotoxic. Further studies are needed to determine if heavy metal toxicity to mycorrhizal symbionts of eucalyptus (Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh.) from high pollution sites may explain the P deficiency and stunted growth. P deficiency is expected to limit the capacity for biotic N retention in N saturated forested watersheds in the Basin of Mexico dominated by Andisols. - Plant response to N deposition may be limited by P limitation in forests growing on Andisol soils in the Basin of Mexico

  18. Nutrient status and plant growth effects of forest soils in the Basin of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fenn, M.E. [USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Forest Fire Laboratory, 4955 Canyon Crest Dr., Riverside, CA 92507 (United States)]. E-mail: mfenn@fs.fed.us; Perea-Estrada, V.M. [Instituto de Recursos Naturales, Colegio de Postgraduados, CP 56230 Montecillo (Mexico); Bauer, L.I. de [Instituto de Recursos Naturales, Colegio de Postgraduados, CP 56230 Montecillo (Mexico)]. E-mail: libauer@colpos.mx; Perez-Suarez, M. [Instituto de Recursos Naturales, Colegio de Postgraduados, CP 56230 Montecillo (Mexico); Parker, D.R. [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521 (United States)]. E-mail: david.parker@ucr.edu; Cetina-Alcala, V.M. [Instituto de Recursos Naturales, Colegio de Postgraduados, CP 56230 Montecillo (Mexico)

    2006-03-15

    The nutrient status of forest soils in the Mexico City Air Basin was evaluated by observing plant growth responses to fertilization with N, P or both nutrients combined. P deficiency was the most frequent condition for soil from two high pollution sites and N deficiency was greatest at a low N deposition site. Concentrations of Pb and Ni, and to a lesser extent Zn and Co, were higher at the high pollution sites. However, positive plant growth responses to P and sometimes to N, and results of wheat root elongation bioassays, suggest that heavy metal concentrations were not directly phytotoxic. Further studies are needed to determine if heavy metal toxicity to mycorrhizal symbionts of eucalyptus (Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh.) from high pollution sites may explain the P deficiency and stunted growth. P deficiency is expected to limit the capacity for biotic N retention in N saturated forested watersheds in the Basin of Mexico dominated by Andisols. - Plant response to N deposition may be limited by P limitation in forests growing on Andisol soils in the Basin of Mexico.

  19. Towards the sustainable management of thuya (Tetraclinis articulata (Vahl.) Mast.) forests in Tunisia: models for main tree attributes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calama, R.; Sanchez-Gonzalez, M.; Garchi, S.; Ammari, Y.; Canellas, I.; Tahar, S.

    2012-11-01

    The thuya (Tetraclinis articulata (Vahl.) Mast.) forests are one of the most important ecosystems in semiarid environments in north-western Africa, providing important economic profit and social services to local populations. However, lack of tools aiding sustainable management of these forests is detected. In the present work models for the main tree attributes as total height, crown diameter, height to crown base and stem form are developed for the species, using data from a net of plots installed in JbelLattrech region, in the NE Tunisia. Presented models allow characterizing the actual state and timber production of forests by using variables measured in typical forest inventories and conform a preliminary step for the future development of dynamic growth models. (Author) 18 refs.

  20. Nitrogen cycling models and their application to forest harvesting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, D.W.; Dale, V.H.

    1986-01-01

    The characterization of forest nitrogen- (N-) cycling processes by several N-cycling models (FORCYTE, NITCOMP, FORTNITE, and LINKAGES) is briefly reviewed and evaluated against current knowledge of N cycling in forests. Some important processes (e.g., translocation within trees, N dynamics in decaying leaf litter) appear to be well characterized, whereas others (e.g., N mineralization from soil organic matter, N fixation, N dynamics in decaying wood, nitrification, and nitrate leaching) are poorly characterized, primarily because of a lack of knowledge rather than an oversight by model developers. It is remarkable how well the forest models do work in the absence of data on some key processes. For those systems in which the poorly understood processes could cause major changes in N availability or productivity, the accuracy of model predictions should be examined. However, the development of N-cycling models represents a major step beyond the much simpler, classic conceptual models of forest nutrient cycling developed by early investigators. The new generation of computer models will surely improve as research reveals how key nutrient-cycling processes operate.

  1. Changes in conifer and deciduous forest foliar and forest floor chemistry and basal area tree growth across a nitrogen (N) deposition gradient in the northeastern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnny L. Boggs; Steven G. McNulty; Linda H. Pardo

    2007-01-01

    We evaluated foliar and forest floor chemistry across a gradient of N deposition in the Northeast at 11 red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) sites in 1987/1988 and foliar and forest floor chemistry and basal area growth at six paired spruce and deciduous sites in 1999. The six red spruce plots were a subset of the original 1987/1988 spruce sites. In 1999...

  2. Landsat analysis of tropical forest succession employing a terrain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barringer, T. H.; Robinson, V. B.; Coiner, J. C.; Bruce, R. C.

    1980-01-01

    Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data have yielded a dual classification of rain forest and shadow in an analysis of a semi-deciduous forest on Mindonoro Island, Philippines. Both a spatial terrain model, using a fifth side polynomial trend surface analysis for quantitatively estimating the general spatial variation in the data set, and a spectral terrain model, based on the MSS data, have been set up. A discriminant analysis, using both sets of data, has suggested that shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral regions and can therefore be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data.

  3. Mathematical model of 137Cs dynamics in the deciduous forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mamikhin, S.V.; Klyashtorin, A.L.

    1999-01-01

    A mathematical model of 137 Cs behaviour in the forest ecosystem is presented. The behaviour of this radionuclide is assumed to obey the same regularities as the behaviour of its stable chemical analogue, potassium. Radionuclide dynamics are considered in parallel with the dynamics of the phytomass. Radionuclides contained in the vegetation are pooled into two basic compartments: external and internal contamination, with separate analysis of each. The model was verified using the data obtained in the 30-km zone of the Chernobyl NPP in 1986-1994. The algorithm described was found to be the most efficient in terms of 137 Cs behaviour in the forest environments

  4. Modeling the height of young forests regenerating from recent disturbances in Mississippi using Landsat and ICESat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ainong; Huang, Chengquan; Sun, Guoqing; Shi, Hua; Toney, Chris; Zhu, Zhiliang; Rollins, Matthew G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Masek, Jeffery G.

    2011-01-01

    disturbances in current LTSS–VCT products and difficulty in deriving reliable forest height measurements using GLAS samples when terrain relief was present within their footprints. In addition, a systematic underestimation of about 5 m by the developed model was also observed, half of which could be explained by forest growth that occurred between field measurement year and model target year. The remaining difference suggests that tree height measurements derived using waveform lidar data could be significantly underestimated, especially for young pine forests. Options for improving the height modeling approach developed in this study were discussed.

  5. Modeling the Height of Young Forests Regenerating from Recent Disturbances in Mississippi using Landsat and ICESat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ainong; Huang, Chengquan; Sun, Guoqing; Shi, Hua; Toney, Chris; Zhu, Zhiliang; Rollins, Matthew G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Masek, Jeffrey G.

    2011-01-01

    current LTSS-VCT products and difficulty in deriving reliable forest height measurements using GLAS samples when terrain relief was present within their footprints. In addition, a systematic underestimation of about 5 m by the developed model was also observed, half of which could be explained by forest growth that occurred between field measurement year and model target year. The remaining difference suggests that tree height measurements derived using waveform lidar data could be significantly underestimated, especially for young pine forests. Options for improving the height modeling approach developed in this study were discussed.

  6. Increase of an introduced bird competitor in old-growth forest associated with restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonard Freed

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Many successful invasions involve long initial periods in which the invader exists at low densities followed by sudden population increases. The reasons for such time-lags remain poorly understood. Here we document a sudden increase in density of the introduced Japanese white-eye (Zosterops japonicus in a restoration area contiguous with old-growth forest at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge on the Island of Hawaii. The refuge, with very high density of native birds, existed in a pocket of low white-eye density that persisted for at least 20 years since the late 1970s. The refuge began an extensive native trees restoration project in 1989 within a 1314 ha abandoned pasture above old-growth forest. This area was soon colonized by white-eyes and their population grew exponentially once the trees had grown tall enough to develop a canopy. This increase was in turn followed by significantly more white-eyes in the open and closed forests adjacent to the restoration area. Competition between white-eyes and native species was documented on study sites within these forests. Density data indicate that competition was more widespread, with loss of tens of thousands of native birds in the 5371 ha area surveyed. Our results are consistent with the view that ecological barriers may delay the population increase of invaders and that human-derived activities may help invaders cross these barriers by creating new ecological opportunities. Control of white-eye numbers may be essential for recovery of native species.

  7. Soil Quality Index Determination Models for Restinga Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonilha, R. M.; Casagrande, J. C.; Soares, R. M.

    2012-04-01

    The Restinga Forest is a set of plant communities in mosaic, determined by the characteristics of their substrates as a result of depositional processes and ages. In this complex mosaic are the physiognomies of restinga forests of high-stage regeneration (high restinga) and middle stage of regeneration (low restinga), each with its plant characteristics that differentiate them. Located on the coastal plains of the Brazilian coast, suffering internal influences both the continental slopes, as well as from the sea. Its soils come from the Quaternary and are subject to constant deposition of sediments. The climate in the coastal type is tropical (Köppen). This work was conducted in four locations: (1) Anchieta Island, Ubatuba, (2) Juréia-Itatins Ecological Station, Iguape, (3) Vila das Pedrinhas, Comprida Island; and (4) Cardoso Island, Cananeia. The soil samples were collect at a depths of 0 to 5, 0-10, 0-20, 20-40 and 40 to 60cm for the chemical and physical analysis. Were studied the additive and pondering additive models to evaluate soil quality. It was concluded: a) the comparative additive model produces quantitative results and the pondering additive model quantitative results; b) as the pondering additive model, the values of Soil Quality Index (SQI) for soils under forest of restinga are low and realistic, demonstrating the small plant biomass production potential of these soils, as well as their low resilience; c) the values of SQI similar to areas with and without restinga forest give quantitative demonstration of the restinga be considered as soil phase; d) restinga forest, probably, is maintained solely by the cycling of nutrients in a closed nutrient cycling; e) for the determination of IQS for soils under restinga vegetation the use of routine chemical analysis is adequate. Keywords: Model, restinga forest, Soil Quality Index (SQI).

  8. Modelling asymmetric growth in crowded plant communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Christian

    2010-01-01

    A class of models that may be used to quantify the effect of size-asymmetric competition in crowded plant communities by estimating a community specific degree of size-asymmetric growth for each species in the community is suggested. The model consists of two parts: an individual size......-asymmetric growth part, where growth is assumed to be proportional to a power function of the size of the individual, and a term that reduces the relative growth rate as a decreasing function of the individual plant size and the competitive interactions from other plants in the neighbourhood....

  9. Forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melin, J.

    1997-01-01

    Forests have the capacity to trap and retain radionuclides for a substantial period of time. The dynamic behaviour of nutrients, pollution and radionuclides in forests is complex. The rotation period of a forest stand in the Nordic countries is about 100 years, whilst the time for decomposition of organic material in a forest environment can be several hundred years. This means that any countermeasure applied in the forest environment must have an effect for several decades, or be reapplied continuously for long periods of time. To mitigate the detrimental effect of a contaminated forest environment on man, and to minimise the economic loss in trade of contaminated forest products, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms of transfer of radionuclides through the forest environment. It must also be stressed that any countermeasure applied in the forest environment must be evaluated with respect to long, as well as short term, negative effects, before any decision about remedial action is taken. Of the radionuclides studied in forests in the past, radiocaesium has been the main contributor to dose to man. In this document, only radiocaesium will be discussed since data on the impact of other radionuclides on man are too scarce for a proper evaluation. (EG)

  10. Development of a shortleaf pine individual-tree growth equation using non-linear mixed modeling techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakra B. Budhathoki; Thomas B. Lynch; James M. Guldin

    2010-01-01

    Nonlinear mixed-modeling methods were used to estimate parameters in an individual-tree basal area growth model for shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.). Shortleaf pine individual-tree growth data were available from over 200 permanently established 0.2-acre fixed-radius plots located in naturally-occurring even-aged shortleaf pine forests on the...

  11. Foliar growth of Eriocnema fulva Naudin (Melastomataceae in a forest fragment in southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PM. Andrade

    Full Text Available Eriocnema fulva Naudin is an endangered herbaceous, perennial, iteroparous, evergreen species geographically restricted to southeastern-center Minas Gerais State, SE Brazil. The individuals occur as patches on rocky riverbanks shaded by seasonal semideciduous Atlantic forest; they are fixed by roots and have a pending stem. Aiming to investigate leaf development and its importance for individual survival, fifteen contiguous plots (1 x 1 m were set down in Jambreiro Forest (19° 58’-59’ S and 43° 52’-55’ W, 800-1100 m altitude, in the municipality of Nova Lima. A total of 260 individuals with the largest leaf blade length > 1 cm was tagged and measured in 1997, 1998, and 1999. Leaf expansion was recorded each month during 26 months until April 2000. Plant size was measured through leaf blade length, petiole length, stem length, and number of leaves. Significant changes were detected only after two years, thus indicating that plant growth is slow. The proportion of surviving leaves after two years was 60%. Total blade expansion took over 14 months, a slow growth rate when compared to leaves of other tropical forest canopy and understory species. Long leaf lifespans are to be found in plants exhibiting slow growth, and we observed that some leaves lived longer than three years. Petiole growth can help to better position the leaf in the search for light, thus contributing to the growth and survival of the plant. The relationships among size measures were significant, reinforcing the great contribution of leaf size for plant size. The age of the largest individual was estimated as 36 years based on the median annual leaf production rate.

  12. Reduced aboveground tree growth associated with higher arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal diversity in tropical forest restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holste, Ellen K; Holl, Karen D; Zahawi, Rakan A; Kobe, Richard K

    2016-10-01

    Establishing diverse mycorrhizal fungal communities is considered important for forest recovery, yet mycorrhizae may have complex effects on tree growth depending on the composition of fungal species present. In an effort to understand the role of mycorrhizal fungi community in forest restoration in southern Costa Rica, we sampled the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) community across eight sites that were planted with the same species ( Inga edulis, Erythrina poeppigiana, Terminalia amazonia, and Vochysia guatemalensis ) but varied twofold to fourfold in overall tree growth rates. The AMF community was measured in multiple ways: as percent colonization of host tree roots, by DNA isolation of the fungal species associated with the roots, and through spore density, volume, and identity in both the wet and dry seasons. Consistent with prior tropical restoration research, the majority of fungal species belonged to the genus Glomus and genus Acaulospora , accounting for more than half of the species and relative abundance found on trees roots and over 95% of spore density across all sites. Greater AMF diversity correlated with lower soil organic matter, carbon, and nitrogen concentrations and longer durations of prior pasture use across sites. Contrary to previous literature findings, AMF species diversity and spore densities were inversely related to tree growth, which may have arisen from trees facultatively increasing their associations with AMF in lower soil fertility sites. Changes to AMF community composition also may have led to variation in disturbance susceptibility, host tree nutrient acquisition, and tree growth. These results highlight the potential importance of fungal-tree-soil interactions in forest recovery and suggest that fungal community dynamics could have important implications for tree growth in disturbed soils.

  13. Tree growth-climate relationships in a forest-plot network on Mediterranean mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fyllas, Nikolaos M; Christopoulou, Anastasia; Galanidis, Alexandros; Michelaki, Chrysanthi Z; Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G; Fulé, Peter Z; Arianoutsou, Margarita

    2017-11-15

    In this study we analysed a novel tree-growth dataset, inferred from annual ring-width measurements, of 7 forest tree species from 12 mountain regions in Greece, in order to identify tree growth - climate relationships. The tree species of interest were: Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Picea abies, Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus frainetto growing across a gradient of climate conditions with mean annual temperature ranging from 5.7 to 12.6°C and total annual precipitation from 500 to 950mm. In total, 344 tree cores (one per tree) were analysed across a network of 20 study sites. We found that water availability during the summer period (May-August) was a strong predictor of interannual variation in tree growth for all study species. Across species and sites, annual tree growth was positively related to summer season precipitation (P SP ). The responsiveness of annual growth to P SP was tightly related to species and site specific measurements of instantaneous photosynthetic water use efficiency (WUE), suggesting that the growth of species with efficient water use is more responsive to variations in precipitation during the dry months of the year. Our findings support the importance of water availability for the growth of mountainous Mediterranean tree species and highlight that future reductions in precipitation are likely to lead to reduced tree-growth under climate change conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Nitrogen limitation of growth and nutrient dynamics in a disturbed mangrove forest, Indian River Lagoon, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, Ilka C.; Whigham, D.F.; McKee, K.L.; Lovelock, C.E.

    2003-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine effects of nutrient enrichment on plant growth, nutrient dynamics, and photosynthesis in a disturbed mangrove forest in an abandoned mosquito impoundment in Florida. Impounding altered the hydrology and soil chemistry of the site. In 1997, we established a factorial experiment along a tree-height gradient with three zones, i.e., fringe, transition, dwarf, and three fertilizer treatment levels, i.e., nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), control, in Mosquito Impoundment 23 on the eastern side of Indian River. Transects traversed the forest perpendicular to the shoreline, from a Rhizophora mangle-dominated fringe through an Avicennia germinans stand of intermediate height, and into a scrub or dwarf stand of A. germinans in the hinterland. Growth rates increased significantly in response to N fertilization. Our growth data indicated that this site is N-limited along the tree-height gradient. After 2 years of N addition, dwarf trees resembled vigorously growing saplings. Addition of N also affected internal dynamics of N and P and caused increases in rates of photosynthesis. These findings contrast with results for a R. mangle-dominated forest in Belize where the fringe is N-limited, but the dwarf zone is P-limited and the transition zone is co-limited by N and P. This study demonstrated that patterns of nutrient limitation in mangrove ecosystems are complex, that not all processes respond similarly to the same nutrient, and that similar habitats are not limited by the same nutrient when different mangrove forests are compared.

  15. Forecasting forest development through modeling based on the legacy of forest structure over the past 43 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baskent, E. Z.; Celik, D. A.

    2013-09-01

    Aim of study: Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires comprehensive coverage of data to reflect both the historical legacy and the future development of forests. This study focuses on analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of forests over the past 43 years to help better forecast the future development of forest under various management strategies. Area of study: The area is situated in Karaisalt district of Adana city in the southeastern corner of Turkey. Material and methods: The historical pattern from 1969 to 2012 was assessed with digital forest cover type maps, produced with high resolution aerial photo interpretation using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The forest development over the next 120 years was forecasted using ecosystem-based multiple use forest management model (ETCAP) to understand the cause-effect relationships under various management strategies. Main results: The result showed that over the past 43 years while total forest areas decreased about 1,194 ha (4%), the productive forest areas increased about 5,397 ha (18%) with a decrease of degraded forest (5,824 ha, 20%) and increase of maquis areas (2,212 ha, 7%).The forecast of forest development under traditional management strategy resulted in an unsustainable forest due to broken initial age class structure, yet generated more total harvest (11%) due to 88% relaxing of even timber flow constraint. While more volume could be harvested under traditional management conditions, the sustainability of future forest is significantly jeopardized. Research highlights: This result trongly implies that it is essential adopting modeling techniques to understand forest dynamics and forecast the future development comprehensively. (Author)

  16. Longevity of Wood-Forced Pools in an Old-Growth Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffington, J. M.; Woodsmith, R. D.; Johnson, A. C.

    2009-12-01

    Wood debris plays an important role in scouring pools in forest channels and providing resultant habitat for aquatic organisms. We investigated the longevity of such pools in a gravel-bed river flowing through old-growth forest in southeastern Alaska by aging trees and “bear’s bread” fungi (Ganoderma applanatum, Fomitopsis pinicola) growing on pool-forming wood debris. Ages were determined by counting annual growth rings from cores and cross sections of trees and fungi growing on the wood debris. These ages are minimum values because they do not account for lag time between debris recruitment and seedling/spore establishment on the debris, nor do they account for flood scour that may periodically reset tree and fungi growth on the debris. The study stream has a gradient of about 1%, bankfull width and depth of 13.3 and 0.78 m, respectively, median grain size of 18 mm, a high wood loading (0.8 pieces/m), and a correspondingly low pool spacing (0.3 bankfull widths/pool), with 81% of the pools forced by wood debris. The size of wood debris in the study stream is large relative to the channel (average log length of 7.6 m and diameter of 0.35 m), rendering most debris immobile. Eighty-one pool-forming pieces of wood were dated over 1.2 km of stream length, with 28% of these pieces causing scour of more than one pool. In all, 122 wood-forced pools were dated, accounting for 38% of all pools at the site and 47% of the wood-forced pools. Fifty-three percent of the wood-forced pools lacked datable wood because these pieces either: were newly recruited; had been scoured by floods; or were contained below the active channel elevation, prohibiting vegetation establishment on the wood debris (the most common cause). The debris age distribution declined exponentially from 2 to 113 yrs., with a median value of 18 yrs. Similar exponential residence time distributions have been reported in other studies, but our analysis focused specifically on the ages of pool-forming wood

  17. Growth curve models and statistical diagnostics

    CERN Document Server

    Pan, Jian-Xin

    2002-01-01

    Growth-curve models are generalized multivariate analysis-of-variance models. These models are especially useful for investigating growth problems on short times in economics, biology, medical research, and epidemiology. This book systematically introduces the theory of the GCM with particular emphasis on their multivariate statistical diagnostics, which are based mainly on recent developments made by the authors and their collaborators. The authors provide complete proofs of theorems as well as practical data sets and MATLAB code.

  18. Modeling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R. W. A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V. K.; Melton, J. R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2014-05-01

    Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model (Lund Potsdam Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) was adapted to simulate present-day potential vegetation as a baseline for climate change impact assessments in the evergreen and deciduous forests of Bolivia. Results were compared to biomass measurements (819 plots) and remote sensing data. Using regional parameter values for allometric relations, specific leaf area, wood density, and disturbance interval, a realistic transition from the evergreen Amazon to the deciduous dry forest was simulated. This transition coincided with threshold values for precipitation (1400 mm yr-1) and water deficit (i.e., potential evapotranspiration minus precipitation) (-830 mm yr-1), beyond which leaf abscission became a competitive advantage. Significant correlations were found between modeled and observed values of seasonal leaf abscission (R2 = 0.6, p days. Decreasing rainfall trends were simulated to reduce GPP in the Amazon. The current model setup provides a baseline for assessing the potential impacts of climate change in the transition zone from wet to dry tropical forests in Bolivia.

  19. Texas' forests, 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    James W. Bentley; Consuelo Brandeis; Jason A. Cooper; Christopher M. Oswalt; Sonja N. Oswalt; KaDonna Randolph

    2014-01-01

    This bulletin describes forest resources of the State of Texas at the time of the 2008 forest inventory. This bulletin addresses forest area, volume, growth, removals, mortality, forest health, timber product output, and the economy of the forest sector.

  20. On a Versatile Stochastic Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samiur Arif

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Growth phenomena are ubiquitous and pervasive not only in biology and the medical sciences, but also in economics, marketing and the computer and social sciences. We introduce a three-parameter version of the classic pure-birth process growth model when suitably instantiated, can be used to model growth phenomena in many seemingly unrelated application domains. We point out that the model is computationally attractive since it admits of conceptually simple, closed form solutions for the time-dependent probabilities.

  1. Functional strategies of tropical dry forest plants in relation to growth form and isotopic composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, L. S.; Silvera, K.; Andrade, J. L.; Dawson, T. E.

    2017-11-01

    Tropical dry forests (TDFs) undergo a substantial dry season in which plant species must endure several months of drought. Although TDFs support a diverse array of plant growth forms, it is not clear how they vary in mechanisms for coping with seasonal drought. We measured organic tissue stable isotopic composition of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) across six plant growth forms including epiphytes, terrestrial succulents, trees, shrubs, herbs, and vines, and oxygen (δ18O) of four growth forms, to distinguish among patterns of resource acquisition and evaluate mechanisms for surviving annual drought in a lowland tropical dry forest in Yucatan, Mexico. Terrestrial succulent and epiphyte δ13C was around -14‰, indicating photosynthesis through the Crassulacean acid metabolism pathway, and along with one C4 herb were distinct from mean values of all other growth forms, which were between -26 and -29‰ indicating C3 photosynthesis. Mean tissue δ15N across epiphytes was -4.95‰ and was significantly lower than all other growth forms, which had values around +3‰. Tissue N concentration varied significantly among growth forms with epiphytes and terrestrial succulents having significantly lower values of about 1% compared to trees, shrubs, herbs and vines, which were around 3%. Tissue C concentration was highest in trees, shrubs and vines, intermediate in herbs and epiphytes and lowest in terrestrial succulents. δ18O did not vary among growth forms. Overall, our results suggest several water-saving aspects of resource acquisition, including the absolute occurrence of CAM photosynthesis in terrestrial succulents and epiphytes, high concentrations of leaf N in some species, which may facilitate CO2 drawdown by photosynthetic enzymes for a given stomatal conductance, and potentially diverse N sources ranging from atmospheric N in epiphytes with extremely depleted δ15N values, and a large range of δ15N values among trees, many of which are legumes and dry season

  2. Recent advances in modelling creep crack growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riedel, H.

    1988-08-01

    At the time of the previous International Conference on Fracture, the C* integral had long been recognized as a promising load parameter for correlating crack growth rates in creep-ductile materials. The measured crack growth rates as a function of C* and of the temperature could be understood on the basis of micromechanical models. The distinction between C*-controlled and K I -controlled creep crack growth had been clarified and first attempts had been made to describe creep crack growth in the transient regime between elastic behavior and steady-state creep. This paper describes the progress in describing transient crack growth including the effect of primary creep. The effect of crack-tip geometry changes by blunting and by crack growth on the crack-tip fields and on the validity of C* is analyzed by idealizing the growing-crack geometry by a sharp notch and using recent solutions for the notch-tip fields. A few new three-dimensional calculations of C* are cited and important theoretical points are emphasized regarding the three-dimensional fields at crack tips. Finally, creep crack growth is described by continuum-damage models for which similarity solutions can be obtained. Crack growth under small-scale creep conditions turns out to be difficult to understand. Slightly different models yield very different crack growth rates. (orig.) With 4 figs

  3. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  4. A System to Derive Optimal Tree Diameter Increment Models from the Eastwide Forest Inventory Data Base (EFIDB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Don C. Bragg

    2002-01-01

    This article is an introduction to the computer software used by the Potential Relative Increment (PRI) approach to optimal tree diameter growth modeling. These DOS programs extract qualified tree and plot data from the Eastwide Forest Inventory Data Base (EFIDB), calculate relative tree increment, sort for the highest relative increments by diameter class, and...

  5. New foliage growth is a significant, unaccounted source for volatiles in boreal evergreen forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalto, J.; Kolari, P.; Hari, P.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Schiestl-Aalto, P.; Aaltonen, H.; Levula, J.; Siivola, E.; Kulmala, M.; Bäck, J.

    2014-03-01

    Estimates of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from forests are based on the assumption that foliage has a steady emission potential over its lifetime, and that emissions are mainly modified by short-term variations in light and temperature. However, in many field studies this has been challenged, and high emissions and atmospheric concentrations have been measured during periods of low biological activity, such as in springtime. We conducted measurements during three years, using an online gas-exchange monitoring system to observe volatile organic emissions from a mature (1 year-old) and a growing Scots pine shoot. The emission rates of organic vapors from vegetative buds of Scots pine during the dehardening and rapid shoot growth stages were one to two orders of magnitude higher than those from mature foliage; this difference decreased and finally disappeared when the new shoot was maturing in late summer. On average, the springtime monoterpene emission rate of the bud was about 500 times higher than that of the mature needles; during the most intensive needle elongation period, the monoterpene emission rate of the growing needles was 3.5 higher than that of the mature needles, and in September the monoterpene emission rate of the same years' needles was even lower (50%) than that of the previous years' needles. For other measured compounds (methanol, acetone and methylbutenol) the values were of the same order of magnitude, except before bud break in spring, when the emission rates of buds for those compounds were on average about 20-30 times higher than that of mature needles. During spring and early summer the buds and growing shoots are a strong source of several VOCs, and if they are not accounted for in emission modeling a significant proportion of the emissions - from a few percent to even half of the annual cumulative emissions - will remain concealed. The diurnal emission pattern of growing shoots differed from the diurnal cycle in temperature as

  6. Modelling atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, D.; Smolander, S.; Sogachev, Andrey

    2011-01-01

    We have modelled the total atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest and investigated the individual contributions from gas phase inorganic species, isoprene, monoterpenes, and methane along with other important VOCs. Daily and seasonal variation in OH-reactivity for the year 2008 was examined...

  7. An ecosystem model for tropical forest disturbance and selective logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maoyi Huang; Gregory P. Asner; Michael Keller; Joseph A. Berry

    2008-01-01

    [1] A new three-dimensional version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (CASA-3D) was developed to simulate regional carbon cycling in tropical forest ecosystems after disturbances such as logging. CASA-3D has the following new features: (1) an alternative approach for calculating absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) using new...

  8. Modeling disturbance and succession in forest landscapes using LANDIS: introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian R. Sturtevant; Eric J. Gustafson; Hong S. He

    2004-01-01

    Modeling forest landscape change is challenging because it involves the interaction of a variety of factors and processes, such as climate, succession, disturbance, and management. These processes occur at various spatial and temporal scales, and the interactions can be complex on heterogeneous landscapes. Because controlled field experiments designed to investigate...

  9. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  10. Multiple constraint modeling of nutrient cycling stoichiometry following forest clearing and pasture abandonment in the Eastern Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Eric; Nifong, Rachel

    2017-04-01

    While deforestation has declined since its peak, land-use change continues to modify Amazonian landscapes. The responses and feedbacks of biogeochemical cycles to these changes play an important role in determining possible future trajectories of ecosystem function and for land stewardship through effects on rates of secondary forest regrowth, soil emissions of greenhouse gases, inputs of nutrients to groundwater and streamwater, and nutrient management in agroecosystems. Here we present a new synthetic analyses of data from the NASA-supported LBA-ECO project and others datasets on nutrient cycling in cattle pastures, secondary forests, and mature forests at Paragominas, Pará, Brazil. We have developed a stoichiometric model relating C-N-P interactions during original forest clearing, extensive and intensive pasture management, and secondary forest regrowth, constrained by multiple observations of ecosystem stocks and fluxes in each land use. While P is conservatively cycled in all land uses, we demonstrate that pyrolyzation of N during pasture formation and during additional burns for pasture management depletes available-N pools, consistent with observations of lower rates of N leaching and trace gas emission and consistent with secondary forest growth responses to experimental N amendments. The soils store large stocks of N and P, and our parameterization of available forms of these nutrients for steady-state dynamics in the mature forest yield reasonable estimates of net N and P mineralization available for grasses and secondary forest species at rates consistent with observed biomass accumulation and productivity in these modified ecosystems. Because grasses and forests have much different demands for N relative to P, the land use has important biogeochemical impacts. The model demonstrates the need for periodic P inputs for sustainable pasture management and for a period of significant biological N fixation for early-to-mid-successional secondary forest

  11. Allometric Scaling and Resource Limitations Model of Total Aboveground Biomass in Forest Stands: Site-scale Test of Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    CHOI, S.; Shi, Y.; Ni, X.; Simard, M.; Myneni, R. B.

    2013-12-01

    Sparseness in in-situ observations has precluded the spatially explicit and accurate mapping of forest biomass. The need for large-scale maps has raised various approaches implementing conjugations between forest biomass and geospatial predictors such as climate, forest type, soil property, and topography. Despite the improved modeling techniques (e.g., machine learning and spatial statistics), a common limitation is that biophysical mechanisms governing tree growth are neglected in these black-box type models. The absence of a priori knowledge may lead to false interpretation of modeled results or unexplainable shifts in outputs due to the inconsistent training samples or study sites. Here, we present a gray-box approach combining known biophysical processes and geospatial predictors through parametric optimizations (inversion of reference measures). Total aboveground biomass in forest stands is estimated by incorporating the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Two main premises of this research are: (a) The Allometric Scaling and Resource Limitations (ASRL) theory can provide a relationship between tree geometry and local resource availability constrained by environmental conditions; and (b) The zeroth order theory (size-frequency distribution) can expand individual tree allometry into total aboveground biomass at the forest stand level. In addition to the FIA estimates, two reference maps from the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD) and U.S. Forest Service (USFS) were produced to evaluate the model. This research focuses on a site-scale test of the biomass model to explore the robustness of predictors, and to potentially improve models using additional geospatial predictors such as climatic variables, vegetation indices, soil properties, and lidar-/radar-derived altimetry products (or existing forest canopy height maps). As results, the optimized ASRL estimates satisfactorily

  12. Interspecific variation in growth responses to tree size, competition and climate of western Canadian boreal mixed forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xinyu; Huang, Jian-Guo; Cheng, Jiong; Dawson, Andria; Stadt, Kenneth J; Comeau, Philip G; Chen, Han Y H

    2018-08-01

    Tree growth of boreal forest plays an important role on global carbon (C) cycle, while tree growth in the western Canadian boreal mixed forests has been predicted to be negatively affected by regional drought. Individual tree growth can be controlled by many factors, such as competition, climate, tree size and age. However, information about contributions of different factors to tree growth is still limited in this region. In order to address this uncertainty, tree rings of two dominant tree species, trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss), were sampled from boreal mixed forest stands distributed across Alberta, Canada. Tree growth rates over different time intervals (10years interval, 1998-2007; 20years interval, 1988-2007; 30years interval, 1978-2007) were calculated to study the effects of different factors (tree size, competition, climate, and age) on tree growth. Results indicated that tree growth of two species were both primarily affected by competition or tree size, while climatic indices showed less effects on tree growth. Growth of trembling aspen was significantly affected by inter- and intraspecific competition, while growth of white spruce was primarily influenced by tree size, followed by competition. Positive relationship was found between growth of white spruce and competition index of coniferous group, suggesting an intraspecific mutualism mechanism within coniferous group. Our results further suggested that competition driven succession was the primary process of forest composition shift in the western Canadian boreal mixed forest. Although drought stress increased tree mortality, decline of stem density under climate change released competition stress of surviving trees, which in turn sustained growth of surviving trees. Therefore, climatic indices showed fewer effects on growth of dominant tree species compared to other factors in our study. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Developing a dynamic growth model for teak plantations in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vindhya Prasad Tewari

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Tectona grandis (teak is one of the most important tropical timber speciesoccurring naturally in India. Appropriate growth models, based on advanced modeling techniques,are not available but are necessary for the successful management of teak stands in the country.Long-term forest planning requires mathematical models, and the principles of Dynamical SystemTheory provide a solid foundation for these. Methods The state-space approach makes it possible to accommodate disturbances and avarying environment. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a dynamic growthmodel based on the limited data, consisting of three annual measurements, collected from 22 teak sample plots in Karnataka, Southern India. Results A biologically consistent whole-stand growth model has been presented which uses thestate-space approach for modelling rates of change of three state-variables viz., dominant height,stems per hectare and stand basal area. Moreover, the model includes a stand volume equationas an output function to estimate this variable at any point in time. Transition functions werefitted separately and simultaneously. Moreover, a continuous autoregressive error structure isalso included in the modelling process. For fitting volume equation, generalized method of moments was used to get efficient parameter estimates under heteroscedastic conditions. Conclusions A simple model containing few free parameters performed well and is particularlywell suited to situations where available data is scarce.

  14. Tree growth and recruitment in a leveed floodplain forest in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Hugo K.W.; King, Sammy L.; Keim, Richard F.

    2014-01-01

    Flooding is a defining disturbance in floodplain forests affecting seed germination, seedling establishment, and tree growth. Globally, flood control, including artificial levees, dams, and channelization has altered flood regimes in floodplains. However, a paucity of data are available in regards to the long-term effects of levees on stand establishment and tree growth in floodplain forests. In this study, we used dendrochronological techniques to reconstruct tree recruitment and tree growth over a 90-year period at three stands within a ring levee in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MAV) and to evaluate whether recruitment patterns and tree growth changed following levee construction. We hypothesized that: (1) sugarberry is increasing in dominance and overcup oak (Quercus lyrata) is becoming less dominant since the levee, and that changes in hydrology are playing a greater role than canopy disturbance in these changes in species dominance; and (2) that overcup oak growth has declined following construction of the levee and cessation of overbank flooding whereas that of sugarberry has increased. Recruitment patterns shifted from flood-tolerant overcup oak to flood-intolerant sugarberry (Celtis laevigata) after levee construction. None of the 122 sugarberry trees cored in this study established prior to the levee, but it was the most common species established after the levee. The mechanisms behind the compositional change are unknown, however, the cosmopolitan distribution of overcup oak during the pre-levee period and sugarberry during the post-levee period, the lack of sugarberry establishment in the pre-levee period, and the confinement of overcup oak regeneration to the lowest areas in each stand after harvest in the post-levee period indicate that species-specific responses to flooding and light availability are forcing recruitment patterns. Overcup oak growth was also affected by levee construction, but in contrast to our hypothesis, growth actually

  15. Canopy gaps affect long-term patterns of tree growth and mortality in mature and old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew N. Gray; Thomas A. Spies; Robert J. Pabst

    2012-01-01

    Canopy gaps created by tree mortality can affect the speed and trajectory of vegetation growth. Species’ population dynamics, and spatial heterogeneity in mature forests. Most studies focus on plant development within gaps, yet gaps also affect the mortality and growth of surrounding trees, which influence shading and root encroachment into gaps and determine whether,...

  16. An enhanced forest classification scheme for modeling vegetation-climate interactions based on national forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majasalmi, Titta; Eisner, Stephanie; Astrup, Rasmus; Fridman, Jonas; Bright, Ryan M.

    2018-01-01

    Forest management affects the distribution of tree species and the age class of a forest, shaping its overall structure and functioning and in turn the surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass, energy, and momentum. In order to attribute climate effects to anthropogenic activities like forest management, good accounts of forest structure are necessary. Here, using Fennoscandia as a case study, we make use of Fennoscandic National Forest Inventory (NFI) data to systematically classify forest cover into groups of similar aboveground forest structure. An enhanced forest classification scheme and related lookup table (LUT) of key forest structural attributes (i.e., maximum growing season leaf area index (LAImax), basal-area-weighted mean tree height, tree crown length, and total stem volume) was developed, and the classification was applied for multisource NFI (MS-NFI) maps from Norway, Sweden, and Finland. To provide a complete surface representation, our product was integrated with the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (ESA CCI LC) map of present day land cover (v.2.0.7). Comparison of the ESA LC and our enhanced LC products (https://doi.org/10.21350/7zZEy5w3) showed that forest extent notably (κ = 0.55, accuracy 0.64) differed between the two products. To demonstrate the potential of our enhanced LC product to improve the description of the maximum growing season LAI (LAImax) of managed forests in Fennoscandia, we compared our LAImax map with reference LAImax maps created using the ESA LC product (and related cross-walking table) and PFT-dependent LAImax values used in three leading land models. Comparison of the LAImax maps showed that our product provides a spatially more realistic description of LAImax in managed Fennoscandian forests compared to reference maps. This study presents an approach to account for the transient nature of forest structural attributes due to human intervention in different land models.

  17. The Uncertain Role of Biogenic VOC for Boundary-Layer Ozone Concentration: Example Investigation of Emissions from Two Forest Types with a Box Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Bonn

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available High levels of air pollution including ground level ozone significantly reduce humans’ life expectancy and cause forest damage and decreased tree growth. The French Vosges and the German Black Forest are regions well-known for having the highest tropospheric ozone concentrations at remote forested sites in Central Europe. This box model study investigates the sensitivity of atmospheric chemistry calculations of derived ozone on differently resolved forest tree composition and volatile organic compound emissions. Representative conditions were chosen for the Upper Rhine area including the Alsatian Vosges/France and the Black Forest/Germany during summer. This study aims to answer the following question: What level of input detail for Alsace and Black Forest tree mixtures is required to accurately simulate ozone formation? While the French forest in Alsace—e.g., in the Vosges—emits isoprene to a substantially higher extent than the forest at the German site, total monoterpene emissions at the two sites are rather similar. However, the individual monoterpene structures, and therefore their reactivity, differs. This causes a higher ozone production rate for Vosges forest mixture conditions than for Black Forest tree mixtures at identical NOx levels, with the difference increasing with temperature. The difference in ozone formation is analyzed in detail and the short-comings of reduced descriptions are discussed. The outcome serves as a to-do-list to allow accurate future ozone predictions influenced by the climate adaptation of forests and the change in forest species composition.

  18. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  19. Compatible growth models and stand density diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, N.J.; Brand, D.G.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses a stand average growth model based on the self-thinning rule developed and used to generate stand density diagrams. Procedures involved in testing are described and results are included

  20. Modelling basin-wide variations in Amazon forest photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercado, Lina; Lloyd, Jon; Domingues, Tomas; Fyllas, Nikolaos; Patino, Sandra; Dolman, Han; Sitch, Stephen

    2010-05-01

    Given the importance of Amazon rainforest in the global carbon and hydrological cycles, there is a need to use parameterized and validated ecosystem gas exchange and vegetation models for this region in order to adequately simulate present and future carbon and water balances. Recent research has found major differences in above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP), above ground biomass and tree dynamics across Amazonia. West Amazonia is more dynamic, with younger trees, higher stem growth rates and lower biomass than central and eastern Amazon (Baker et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2004; Phillips et al. 2004). A factor of three variation in above-ground net primary productivity has been estimated across Amazonia by Malhi et al. (2004). Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed spatial variability in ANPP (Malhi et al. 2004). First, due to the proximity to the Andes, sites from western Amazonia tend to have richer soils than central and eastern Amazon and therefore soil fertility could possibly be highly related to the high wood productivity found in western sites. Second, if GPP does not vary across the Amazon basin then different patterns of carbon allocation to respiration could also explain the observed ANPP gradient. However since plant growth depends on the interaction between photosynthesis, transport of assimilates, plant respiration, water relations and mineral nutrition, variations in plant gross photosynthesis (GPP) could also explain the observed variations in ANPP. In this study we investigate whether Amazon GPP can explain variations of observed ANPP. We use a sun and shade canopy gas exchange model that has been calibrated and evaluated at five rainforest sites (Mercado et al. 2009) to simulate gross primary productivity of 50 sites across the Amazon basin during the period 1980-2001. Such simulation differs from the ones performed with global vegetation models (Cox et al. 1998; Sitch et al. 2003) where i) single plant functional

  1. Nutrient foraging strategies are associated with productivity and population growth in forest shrubs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Bram W. G.; Faillace, Cara A.; Lafond, Jonathan J.; Baumgarten, Joni M.; Mozdzer, Thomas J.; Dighton, John; Meiners, Scott J.; Grabosky, Jason C.; Ehrenfeld, Joan G.

    2017-01-01

    Background and Aims Temperate deciduous forest understoreys are experiencing widespread changes in community composition, concurrent with increases in rates of nitrogen supply. These shifts in plant abundance may be driven by interspecific differences in nutrient foraging (i.e. conservative vs. acquisitive strategies) and, thus, adaptation to contemporary nutrient loading conditions. This study sought to determine if interspecific differences in nutrient foraging could help explain patterns of shrub success and decline in eastern North American forests. Methods Using plants grown in a common garden, fine root traits associated with nutrient foraging were measured for six shrub species. Traits included the mean and skewness of the root diameter distribution, specific root length (SRL), C:N ratio, root tissue density, arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization and foraging precision. Above- and below-ground productivity were also determined for the same plants, and population growth rates were estimated using data from a long-term study of community dynamics. Root traits were compared among species and associations among root traits, measures of productivity and rates of population growth were evaluated. Key Results Species fell into groups having thick or thin root forms, which correspond to conservative vs. acquisitive nutrient foraging strategies. Interspecific variation in root morphology and tissue construction correlated with measures of productivity and rates of cover expansion. Of the four species with acquisitive traits, three were introduced species that have become invasive in recent decades, and the fourth was a weedy native. In contrast, the two species with conservative traits were historically dominant shrubs that have declined in abundance in eastern North American forests. Conclusions In forest understoreys of eastern North America, elevated nutrient availability may impose a filter on species success in addition to above-ground processes such as herbivory

  2. Value function in economic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

    2017-11-01

    Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

  3. Tax Evasion and Economic Growth in an Endogenous Growth Model

    OpenAIRE

    加藤, 秀弥; KATO, Hideya

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents an endogenous growth model with tax evasion where government expenditures affect production. An individual evades a tax so as to maximize his or her utility, the tax authority controls the detection probability to maximize net tax revenue, and the government chooses the income tax rate to maximize individuals’ utility. The main conclusions are as follows. First, the optical income tax rate with tax evasion is higher than that without tax evasion. Second, the rise in a ...

  4. Modelling nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems; Modellering av naeringssyklus i skogoekosystemer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kvindesland, Sheila H.S.B.

    1997-12-31

    Acid deposition`s threat to fresh water and forest environments became an issue in the late 1960s. Acid deposition and forest nutrient cycling then began to be researched in greater co-operation. This thesis studies nutrient cycling processes in Norway spruce forests, emphasizing the effects on soil chemical properties, soil solution chemistry and streamwater chemistry. It investigates the effects of different aged stands on nutrient cycling and sets up nutrient budgets of the base cations and nitrogen at two sites in Norway. It also selects, documents, calibrates, tests and improves nutrient cycling models for use in Norwegian forests. 84 refs., 44 figs., 46 tabs.

  5. CERES: a model of forest stand biomass dynamics for predicting trace contaminant, nutrient, and water effects. I. Model description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dixon, K R; Luxmoore, R J; Begovich, C L

    1978-06-01

    CERES is a forest stand growth model which incorporates sugar transport in order to predict both short-term effects and long-term accumulation of trace contaminants and/or nutrients when coupled with the soil chemistry model (SCHEM), and models of solute uptake (DIFMAS and DRYADS) of the Unified Transport Model, UTM. An important feature of CERES is its ability to interface with the soil--plant--atmosphere water model (PROSPER) as a means of both predicting and studying the effects of plant water status on growth and solute transport. CERES considers the biomass dynamics of plants, standing dead and litter with plants divided into leaves, stems, roots, and fruits. The plant parts are divided further into sugar substrate, storage, and in the case of stems and roots, heartwood components. Each ecosystem omponent is described by a mass balance equation written as a first-order ordinary differential equation.

  6. Model for estimating air pollutant uptake by forests: calculation of forest absorption of sulfur dioxide from dispersed sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, C.E. Jr.; Sinclair, T.R.; Knoerr, K.R.

    1975-01-01

    The computer model presented in this paper is designed to estimate the uptake of air pollutants by forests. The model utilizes submodels to describe atmospheric diffusion immediately above and within the canopy, and into the sink areas within or on the trees. The program implementing the model is general and can be used with only minor changes for any gaseous pollutant. To illustrate the utility of the model, estimates are made of the sink strength of forests for sulfur dioxide. The results agree with experimentally derived estimates of sulfur dioxide uptake in crops and forest trees. (auth)

  7. Floristic conservation value, nested understory floras, and the development of second-growth forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spyreas, Greg; Matthews, Jeffrey W

    2006-08-01

    Nestedness analysis can reveal patterns of plant composition and diversity among forest patches. For nested floral assemblages, the plants occupying any one patch are a nested subset of the plants present in successively more speciose patches. Elimination of sensitive understory plants with human disturbance is one of several mechanisms hypothesized to generate nonrandom, nested floral distributions. Hypotheses explaining distributions of understory plants remain unsubstantiated across broad landscapes of varying forest types and disturbance histories. We sampled the vegetation of 51 floodplain and 55 upland forests across Illinois (USA) to examine how the diversity, composition, and nestedness of understory floras related to their overstory growth and structure (basal area), and their overall floristic conservation value (mean C). We found that plant assemblages were nested with respect to site species richness, such that rare plants indicated diverse forests. Floras were also nested with respect to site mean C and basal area (BA). However, in an opposite pattern from what we had expected, floras of high-BA stands were nested subsets of those of low-BA stands. A set of early-successional plants restricted to low-BA stands, and more importantly, the absence of a set of true forest plants in high-BA stands, accounted for this pattern. Additionally, we observed a decrease in species richness with increasing BA. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that recovery of true forest plants does not occur concurrently with overstory regeneration following massive anthropogenic disturbance. Nestedness by site mean C indicates that high conservation value (conservative) plants co-occur in highly diverse stands; these forests are assumed to be less disturbed historically. Because site mean C was uncorrelated with BA, BA-neutral disturbances such as livestock usage are suggested as accounting for between-site differences in mean C. When considered individually

  8. CLIMATE-TREE GROWTH RELATIONSHIPS OF Mimosa tenuiflora IN SEASONALLY DRY TROPICAL FOREST, BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Póvoa Mattos

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Mimosa tenuiflora is a native pioneer tree from the Caatinga used commercially as firewood due to its high calorific value. It is deciduous, its trunk does not reach large diameters and it has good regrowth capacity. This study intended to determine the annual increment in diameter of M. tenuiflora and its correlation with rainfall, as basis for fuel wood management. Disks from the stem base of M. tenuiflora trees were collected in 2008 in Sertânia and Serra Talhada, Pernambuco State, from regrowth of trees coppiced in 2003 and in Limoeiro do Norte, Ceará State, from a plantation established in 2002. The trees have well-defined annual growth rings, highly correlated with annual precipitation and are well-suited for dendrochronological investigations. Forest managers must consider the influence of previous drier years in the wood production when predicting fuel wood harvesting. The high growth correlation with the previous year’s rainfall in regions where the rains start after photoperiodic stimulation indicate the necessity of understanding the growth dynamics of the species under dry forest conditions through additional ecophysiology studies.

  9. Growth rate of Heterobasidion annosum in Picea abies established on forest land and arable land

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendz-Hellgren, M.; Johansson, Martin; Swedjemark, G.; Stenlid, J. [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Forest Mycology and Pathology; Brandtberg, P.O. [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Research

    1999-07-01

    The growth rates of Heterobasidion annosum in Norway spruce were investigated in southern Sweden. In one study, stump and tree roots in stands established on previous forest or arable land were inoculated with H. annosum-infested sawdust. After 1-3 yrs, the linear extent of colonization by the fungus was measured, based on detection of its conidiophores on incubated samples. The average growth rate was 25 cm yr{sup -1} in stump roots and 9 cm yr{sup -1} in tree roots, neither of which differed significantly between forest and arable land. The feeling of a decayed tree could enhance the spread of H. annosum within root systems. In the second study, the height of discoloration and extent of colonization by H. annosum, measured as above, were assessed in naturally infected trees. On average, discoloration moved through the roots and stem at a rate of 36 cm yr{sup -1}. Heterobasidion annosum was found 60 cm in advance of the discoloration, corresponding to a growth rate of 52 cm yr{sup -1}.

  10. Growth of four species of the forest marshes of the Colombian pacific coast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Del Valle Arango, Jorge Ignacio

    1997-01-01

    During 12 years, growth in diameter of Otoba gracilipes (cuangare), eugenia spp. (Guayabillo), Swartzia amplifolia var rigida (Cuna) and Pithecellobium latifolium (Pinde) was studied in guandal and cuangarial associations in the delta of the Patia River. For these species of the under story, the subcanopy and the canopy, models of growth were established using von Bertalanffy's model in four forms. Equations of growth in diameter were obtained for four variables, which are discussed critically

  11. Prolonged limitation of tree growth due to warmer spring in semi-arid mountain forests of Tianshan, northwest China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Xiuchen; Liu Hongyan; Wang Yufu; Deng Minghua

    2013-01-01

    Based on radial tree growth measurements in nine plots of area 625 m 2 (369 trees in total) and climate data, we explored the possibly changing effects of climate on regional tree growth in the temperate continental semi-arid mountain forests in the Tianshan Mountains in northwest China during 1933–2005. Tree growth in our study region is generally limited by the soil water content of pre- and early growing season (February–July). Remarkably, moving correlation functions identified a clear temporal change in the relationship between tree growth and mean April temperature. Tree growth showed a significant (p < 0.05) and negative relationship to mean April temperature since approximately the beginning of the 1970s, which indicated that the semi-arid mountain forests are suffering a prolonged growth limitation in recent years accompanying spring warming. This prolonged limitation of tree growth was attributed to the effects of soil water limitation in early spring (March–April) caused by the rapid spring warming. Warming-induced prolonged drought stress contributes, to a large part, to the marked reduction of regional basal area increment (BAI) in recent years and a much slower growth rate in young trees. Our results highlight that the increasing water limitation induced by spring warming on tree growth most likely aggravated the marked reduction in tree growth. This work provides a better understanding of the effects of spring warming on tree growth in temperate continental semi-arid forests. (letter)

  12. Challenges of Governing Second-Growth Forests: A Case Study from the Brazilian Amazonian State of Pará

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Despite the growing ecological and social importance of second-growth and regenerating forests across much of the world, significant inconsistencies remain in the legal framework governing these forests in many tropical countries and elsewhere. Such inconsistencies and uncertainties undermine attempts to improve both the transparency and sustainability of management regimes. Here, we present a case-study overview of some of the main challenges facing the governance of second-growth forests and the forest restoration process in the Brazilian Amazon, with a focus on the state of Pará, which is both the most populous state in the Amazon and the state with the highest rates of deforestation in recent years. First, we briefly review the history of environmental governance in Brazil that has led to the current system of legislation governing second-growth forests and the forest restoration process in Pará. Next, we draw on this review to examine the kinds of legislative and operational impediments that stand in the way of the development and implementation of a more effective governance system. In particular, we highlight problems created by significant ambiguities in legal terminology and inconsistencies in guidance given across different levels of government. We also outline some persistent problems with the implementation of legal guidance, including the need to understand local biophysical factors in order to guide an effective restoration program, as well as difficulties presented by access to technical assistance, institutional support and financial resources for the establishment and monitoring of both existing secondary forests and newly regenerating areas of forest. Whilst we focus here on a Brazilian case study, we suggest that these kinds of impediments to the good governance of second-growth forests are commonplace and require more concerted attention from researchers, managers and policy makers.

  13. Long-term growth and succession in restored and natural mangrove forests in southwestern Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proffitt, C.E.; Devlin, D.J.

    2005-01-01

    We compared colonization, growth and succession from 1989 to 2000 in a restored mangrove site and in gap and closed canopy sites in a natural mangrove forest. The restored site was created in 1982 and planted with Rhizophora mangle (???2 m-2) propagules. By 1989, Laguncularia racemosa, with densities up to 12.9 tree m-2, was a dominant in all plots, although densities were greater at edge plots relative to inner plots, and near open water (west plots) relative to further inland (east plots), and in tall mangrove plots relative to scrub plots. Rhizophora mangle (1989 tree densities about 2 m-2) was a codominant in inner and scrub plots, while Avicennia germinans had the lowest densities (mangle and L. racemosa, rapid growth in height of all species (1989-1996), followed by a dieoff of L. racemosa in later years (1997-2000) as the canopy came to resemble that of tall mangrove plots. Colonization and growth rates were lower in gap and closed canopy regions of the natural forest relative to rates in the restored site. After 11 years, densities of L. racemosa were 10-20x lower and R. mangle slightly less in the gap relative to densities in tall mangrove plots in the restored site at the same age. Although the restored stand had converged with the natural forest by 2000 in terms of some factors such as species richness, vegetation cover, litterfall, and light penetration, trees were still much smaller and stem densities much higher. Full development of mature structure and ecological function will likely require decades more development. ?? Springer 2005.

  14. Forest height estimation from mountain forest areas using general model-based decomposition for polarimetric interferometric synthetic aperture radar images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minh, Nghia Pham; Zou, Bin; Cai, Hongjun; Wang, Chengyi

    2014-01-01

    The estimation of forest parameters over mountain forest areas using polarimetric interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PolInSAR) images is one of the greatest interests in remote sensing applications. For mountain forest areas, scattering mechanisms are strongly affected by the ground topography variations. Most of the previous studies in modeling microwave backscattering signatures of forest area have been carried out over relatively flat areas. Therefore, a new algorithm for the forest height estimation from mountain forest areas using the general model-based decomposition (GMBD) for PolInSAR image is proposed. This algorithm enables the retrieval of not only the forest parameters, but also the magnitude associated with each mechanism. In addition, general double- and single-bounce scattering models are proposed to fit for the cross-polarization and off-diagonal term by separating their independent orientation angle, which remains unachieved in the previous model-based decompositions. The efficiency of the proposed approach is demonstrated with simulated data from PolSARProSim software and ALOS-PALSAR spaceborne PolInSAR datasets over the Kalimantan areas, Indonesia. Experimental results indicate that forest height could be effectively estimated by GMBD.

  15. Species-specific growth responses to climate variations in understory trees of a Central African rain forest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Couralet, C.; Sterck, F.J.; Sass-Klaassen, U.; Acker, Van J.; Beekman, H.

    2010-01-01

    Basic knowledge of the relationships between tree growth and environmental variables is crucial for understanding forest dynamics and predicting vegetation responses to climate variations. Trees growing in tropical areas with a clear seasonality in rainfall often form annual growth rings. In the

  16. Development of the BIOME-BGC model for the simulation of managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Zhou, Guomo; Du, Huaqiang; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Mo, Lufeng; Zhou, Yufeng; Tu, Guoqing

    2016-05-01

    Numerical models are the most appropriate instrument for the analysis of the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and their interactions with changing environmental conditions. The process-based model BIOME-BGC is widely used in simulation of carbon balance within vegetation, litter and soil of unmanaged ecosystems. For Moso bamboo forests, however, simulations with BIOME-BGC are inaccurate in terms of the growing season and the carbon allocation, due to the oversimplified representation of phenology. Our aim was to improve the applicability of BIOME-BGC for managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystem by implementing several new modules, including phenology, carbon allocation, and management. Instead of the simple phenology and carbon allocation representations in the original version, a periodic Moso bamboo phenology and carbon allocation module was implemented, which can handle the processes of Moso bamboo shooting and high growth during "on-year" and "off-year". Four management modules (digging bamboo shoots, selective cutting, obtruncation, fertilization) were integrated in order to quantify the functioning of managed ecosystems. The improved model was calibrated and validated using eddy covariance measurement data collected at a managed Moso bamboo forest site (Anji) during 2011-2013 years. As a result of these developments and calibrations, the performance of the model was substantially improved. Regarding the measured and modeled fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange), relative errors were decreased by 42.23%, 103.02% and 18.67%, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Modeling Math Growth Trajectory--An Application of Conventional Growth Curve Model and Growth Mixture Model to ECLS K-5 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    To model students' math growth trajectory, three conventional growth curve models and three growth mixture models are applied to the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten-Fifth grade (ECLS K-5) dataset in this study. The results of conventional growth curve model show gender differences on math IRT scores. When holding socio-economic…

  18. Exploring Digital Surface Models from Nine Different Sensors for Forest Monitoring and Change Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaojiao Tian

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Digital surface models (DSMs derived from spaceborne and airborne sensors enable the monitoring of the vertical structures for forests in large areas. Nevertheless, due to the lack of an objective performance assessment for this task, it is difficult to select the most appropriate data source for DSM generation. In order to fill this gap, this paper performs change detection analysis including forest decrease and tree growth. The accuracy of the DSMs is evaluated by comparison with measured tree heights from inventory plots (field data. In addition, the DSMs are compared with LiDAR data to perform a pixel-wise quality assessment. DSMs from four different satellite stereo sensors (ALOS/PRISM, Cartosat-1, RapidEye and WorldView-2, one satellite InSAR sensor (TanDEM-X, two aerial stereo camera systems (HRSC and UltraCam and two airborne laser scanning datasets with different point densities are adopted for the comparison. The case study is a complex central European temperate forest close to Traunstein in Bavaria, Germany. As a major experimental result, the quality of the DSM is found to be robust to variations in image resolution, especially when the forest density is high. The forest decrease results confirm that besides aerial photogrammetry data, very high resolution satellite data, such as WorldView-2, can deliver results with comparable quality as the ones derived from LiDAR, followed by TanDEM-X and Cartosat DSMs. The quality of the DSMs derived from ALOS and Rapid-Eye data is lower, but the main changes are still correctly highlighted. Moreover, the vertical tree growth and their relationship with tree height are analyzed. The major tree height in the study site is between 15 and 30 m and the periodic annual increments (PAIs are in the range of 0.30–0.50 m.

  19. Determining the annual periodicity of growth rings in seven tree species of a tropical moist forest in Santa Cruz, Bolivia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez, L.; Villalba, R.; Pena-Claros, M.

    2012-07-01

    To determine the annual periodicity of growth rings in seven tree species from a tropical moist forest in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, a fire scar was used as a marker point to verify the annual nature of tree rings. The number of tree rings formed between the 1995 fire scar and the collection of the cross sections in 2002 was visually identified. The seven species showed annual growth rings. In most cases, boundaries between rings were marked by the presence of marginal parenchyma and wall-thick ed fibers formed at the end of the growing season. Growth lenses and false rings were recorded in some species. Tree rings can be carefully used in Santa Cruz forests to determine rates of growth. This information is crucial for defining forest management practices in tropical regions. (Author) 21 refs.

  20. Modeling lodgepole pine radial growth relative to climate and genetics using universal growth-trend response functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLane, Sierra C; LeMay, Valerie M; Aitken, Sally N

    2011-04-01

    Forests strongly affect Earth's carbon cycles, making our ability to forecast forest-productivity changes associated with rising temperatures and changes in precipitation increasingly critical. In this study, we model the influence of climate on annual radial growth using lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees grown for 34 years in a large provenance experiment in western Canada. We use a random-coefficient modeling approach to build universal growth-trend response functions that simultaneously incorporate the impacts of different provenance and site climates on radial growth trends under present and future annual (growth-year), summer, and winter climate regimes. This approach provides new depth to traditional quantitative genetics population response functions by illustrating potential changes in population dominance over time, as well as indicating the age and size at which annual growth begins declining for any population growing in any location under any present or future climate scenario within reason, given the ages and climatic conditions sampled. Our models indicate that lodgepole pine radial-growth levels maximize between 3.9 degrees and 5.1 degrees C mean growth-year temperature. This translates to productivity declining by the mid-21st century in southern and central British Columbia (BC), while increasing beyond the 2080s in northern BC and Yukon, as temperatures rise. Relative to summer climate indices, productivity is predicted to decline continuously through the 2080s in all locations, while relative to winter climate variables, the opposite trend occurs, with the growth increases caused by warmer winters potentially offsetting the summer losses. Trees from warmer provenances, i.e., from the center of the species range, perform best in nearly all of our present and future climate-scenario models. We recommend that similar models be used to analyze population growth trends relative to annual and intra-annual climate in other large-scale provenance

  1. Nonlinear Growth Models as Measurement Models: A Second-Order Growth Curve Model for Measuring Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeish, Daniel; Dumas, Denis

    2017-01-01

    Recent methodological work has highlighted the promise of nonlinear growth models for addressing substantive questions in the behavioral sciences. In this article, we outline a second-order nonlinear growth model in order to measure a critical notion in development and education: potential. Here, potential is conceptualized as having three components-ability, capacity, and availability-where ability is the amount of skill a student is estimated to have at a given timepoint, capacity is the maximum amount of ability a student is predicted to be able to develop asymptotically, and availability is the difference between capacity and ability at any particular timepoint. We argue that single timepoint measures are typically insufficient for discerning information about potential, and we therefore describe a general framework that incorporates a growth model into the measurement model to capture these three components. Then, we provide an illustrative example using the public-use Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten data set using a Michaelis-Menten growth function (reparameterized from its common application in biochemistry) to demonstrate our proposed model as applied to measuring potential within an educational context. The advantage of this approach compared to currently utilized methods is discussed as are future directions and limitations.

  2. Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2015 Published by John

  3. Localisation in a Growth Model with Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, M.; Menshikov, M.; Shcherbakov, V.; Vachkovskaia, M.

    2018-05-01

    This paper concerns the long term behaviour of a growth model describing a random sequential allocation of particles on a finite cycle graph. The model can be regarded as a reinforced urn model with graph-based interaction. It is motivated by cooperative sequential adsorption, where adsorption rates at a site depend on the configuration of existing particles in the neighbourhood of that site. Our main result is that, with probability one, the growth process will eventually localise either at a single site, or at a pair of neighbouring sites.

  4. Residual Structures in Latent Growth Curve Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J.; Widaman, Keith F.

    2010-01-01

    Several alternatives are available for specifying the residual structure in latent growth curve modeling. Two specifications involve uncorrelated residuals and represent the most commonly used residual structures. The first, building on repeated measures analysis of variance and common specifications in multilevel models, forces residual variances…

  5. Private forests, housing growth, and America’s water supply: A report from the Forests on the Edge and Forests to Faucets Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. H. Mockrin; R. L. Lilja; E. Weidner; S. M. Stein; M. A. Carr

    2014-01-01

    America’s private forests provide a vast array of public goods and services, including abundant, clean surface water. Forest loss and development can affect water quality and quantity when forests are removed and impervious surfaces, such as paved roads, spread across the landscape. We rank watersheds across the conterminous United States according to the contributions...

  6. Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Storck, Pascal; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2009-05-01

    The effects of forest canopies on snow accumulation and ablation processes can be very important for the hydrology of midlatitude and high-latitude areas. A mass and energy balance model for snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments was developed utilizing extensive measurements of snow interception and release in a maritime mountainous site in Oregon. The model was evaluated using 2 years of weighing lysimeter data and was able to reproduce the snow water equivalent (SWE) evolution throughout winters both beneath the canopy and in the nearby clearing, with correlations to observations ranging from 0.81 to 0.99. Additionally, the model was evaluated using measurements from a Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) field site in Canada to test the robustness of the canopy snow interception algorithm in a much different climate. Simulated SWE was relatively close to the observations for the forested sites, with discrepancies evident in some cases. Although the model formulation appeared robust for both types of climates, sensitivity to parameters such as snow roughness length and maximum interception capacity suggested the magnitude of improvements of SWE simulations that might be achieved by calibration.

  7. Modeling directional thermal radiance from a forest canopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGuire, M.J.; Balick, L.K.; Smith, J.A.; Hutchison, B.A.

    1989-01-01

    Recent advances in remote sensing technology have increased interest in utilizing the thermal-infared region to gain additional information about surface features such as vegetation canopies. Studies have shown that sensor view angle, canopy structure, and percentage of canopy coverage can affect the response of a thermal sensor. These studies have been primarily of agricultural regions and there have been relatively few examples describing the thermal characteristics of forested regions. This paper describes an extension of an existing thermal vegetation canopy radiance model which has been modified to partially account for the geometrically rough structure of a forest canopy. Fourier series expansion of a canopy height profile is used to calculate improved view factors which partially account for the directional variations in canopy thermal radiance transfers. The original and updated radiance model predictions are compared with experimental data obtained over a deciduous (oak-hickory) forest site. The experimental observations are also used to document azimuthal and nadir directional radiance variations. Maximum angular variations in measured canopy temperatures were 4–6°C (azimuth) and 2.5°C (nadir). Maximum angular variations in simulated temperatures using the modified rough surface model was 4°C. The rough surface model appeared to be sensitive to large gaps in the canopy height profile, which influenced the resultant predicted temperature. (author)

  8. Thermal models pertaining to continental growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, P.; Ashwal, L.

    1988-01-01

    Thermal models are important to understanding continental growth as the genesis, stabilization, and possible recycling of continental crust are closely related to the tectonic processes of the earth which are driven primarily by heat. The thermal energy budget of the earth was slowly decreasing since core formation, and thus the energy driving the terrestrial tectonic engine was decreasing. This fundamental observation was used to develop a logic tree defining the options for continental growth throughout earth history

  9. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  10. Climate Responses in Growth and Wood Anatomy of Imoprtant Forest Tree Species in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Weiwei

    and high temperatures on the development of Danish tree species are scarcely investigated. Through a dendroecological approach this dissertation assessed the growth responses related to increment, xylem anatomy and wood property of eight different important tree species, namely Picea abies (L.) Karst......., Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr., Abies alba Mill., Abies grandis (Dougl.) Lindl., Pseudotsuga mensiesii (Mirb.) Franco, Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr., Quercus robur L. and Fagus sylvatica L., to long-term drought and high temperatures, aiming at identifying a species portfolio matching future climate...... intolerant species, mainly due to their low drought tolerance (both species) and susceptibility to high autumn temperature (only P. abies). Overall, this dissertation improves the understanding of how drought and high temperatures have impacted and will influence the growth of tree species in Danish forest...

  11. Downstream impacts of a Central Amazonian hydroelectric dam on tree growth and mortality in floodplain forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resende, A. F. D.; Silva, T. S. F.; Silva, J. D. S.; Piedade, M. T. F.; Streher, A. S.; Ferreira-Ferreira, J.; Schongart, J.

    2017-12-01

    The flood pulse of large Amazonian Rivers is characterized by predictable high- and low-water periods during the annual cycle, and is the main driving force in the floodplains regulating decomposition, nutrient cycles, productivity, life cycles and growth rhythms of floodplains' biota. Over at least 20 millions of years, tree species in these ecosystems developed complex adaptative mechanisms to tolerate flooding, such as the tree species Macrolobium acaciifolium (Fabaceae) and Eschweilera tenuifolia (Lecythidaceae) occupying the lower topographic positions in the floodplain forests along the oligothrophic black-water rivers. Tree growth occurs mainly during terrestrial phase, while during the aquatic phase the anoxic conditions result into a cambial dormancy and formation of annual tree rings. The hydroelectric dam Balbina which was installed in the Uatumã River (central Amazonia) during the 1980s altered significantly the flood pulse regime resulting into higher minimum and lower maximum annual water levels. The suppression of the terrestrial phase caused large-scale mortality of flood-adapted trees growing on the lower topographic positions, as evidenced by radiocarbon dating and cross-dating techniques (dendrochronology). In this study we estimated the extension of dead forests using high resolution ALOS/PALSAR radar images, for their detection along a fluvial distance of more than 280 km downstream of the power plant. Further we analyzed tree growth of 60 living individuals of E. tenuifolia by tree-ring analyses comparing the post- and pre-dam periods. We evaluated the impacts of the altered hydrological regime on tree growth considering ontogenetic effects and the fluvial distance of the trees to the dam. Since the Balbina power plant started operating the associated igapó forests lost about 11% of its cover. We found a significant reduction of tree growth of E. tenuifolia during the post-dam period as a consequence of the increasing aquatic phase duration

  12. Mapping forest functional type in a forest-shrubland ecotone using SPOT imagery and predictive habitat distribution modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assal, Timothy J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Sibold, Jason

    2015-01-01

    The availability of land cover data at local scales is an important component in forest management and monitoring efforts. Regional land cover data seldom provide detailed information needed to support local management needs. Here we present a transferable framework to model forest cover by major plant functional type using aerial photos, multi-date Système Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) imagery, and topographic variables. We developed probability of occurrence models for deciduous broad-leaved forest and needle-leaved evergreen forest using logistic regression in the southern portion of the Wyoming Basin Ecoregion. The model outputs were combined into a synthesis map depicting deciduous and coniferous forest cover type. We evaluated the models and synthesis map using a field-validated, independent data source. Results showed strong relationships between forest cover and model variables, and the synthesis map was accurate with an overall correct classification rate of 0.87 and Cohen’s kappa value of 0.81. The results suggest our method adequately captures the functional type, size, and distribution pattern of forest cover in a spatially heterogeneous landscape.

  13. Patterns of radial and shoot growth of five tree species in a gamma-irradiated northern Wisconsin forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavitkovski, J.; Buech, R.R.; Rudolph, T.D.; Bauer, E.O.

    1977-01-01

    Patterns of radial and shoot growth of Abies balsamea, Acer rubrum, A. saccharum, Betula papyrifera, and Populus tremuloides were observed before (1970) and during (1972) gamma-irradiation of forest communities in the Enterprise Radiation Forest. Measurements were made during the growing season along the radiation gradient, and year days (YD) of 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90 percent of total growth were obtained by interpolation. The experimental area was divided into an ''affected'' and a ''no-effect'' zone. The boundary of the affected zone coincided with radiation exposures that effectively reduced the 1972 radial growth of a given species in comparison to the preirradiation growth. In 1970 and in the no-effect zone in 1972, shoot growth of the four broadleaved species started and terminated earlier than the radial growth. In A. balsamea the radial growth started earlier and terminated later than the shoot growth. In all five species, duration of radial growth was significantly longer than that of shoot growth. Radial growth of A. rubrum, A. saccharum, and B. papyrifera started significantly earlier in 1972 than in 1970, but no difference between years was found in the early-starting A. balsamea and P. tremuloides. In contrast, shoot growth of all five species started earlier in 1970 than in 1972. It is suggested that temperature regimes during the early developmental stages were probably responsible for the difference. In the affected zone in 1972, the radiation depressed radial growth and changed its normal pattern in all five species

  14. Probabilistic risk models for multiple disturbances: an example of forest insects and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

    2010-01-01

    Building probabilistic risk models for highly random forest disturbances like wildfire and forest insect outbreaks is a challenging. Modeling the interactions among natural disturbances is even more difficult. In the case of wildfire and forest insects, we looked at the probability of a large fire given an insect outbreak and also the incidence of insect outbreaks...

  15. Modeling carbon stocks in a secondary tropical dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Richard A. Birdsey; Kristofer D. Johnson; Juan Manuel Dupuy; Jose Luis Hernandez-Stefanoni; Karen. Richardson

    2014-01-01

    The carbon balance of secondary dry tropical forests of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is sensitive to human and natural disturbances and climate change. The spatially explicit process model Forest-DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) was used to estimate forest carbon dynamics in this region, including the effects of disturbance on carbon stocks. Model evaluation using...

  16. Xylem formation can be modeled statistically as a function of primary growth and cambium activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jian-Guo; Deslauriers, Annie; Rossi, Sergio

    2014-08-01

    Primary (budburst, foliage and shoot) growth and secondary (cambium and xylem) growth of plants play a vital role in sequestering atmospheric carbon. However, their potential relationships have never been mathematically quantified and the underlying physiological mechanisms are unclear. We monitored primary and secondary growth in Picea mariana and Abies balsamea on a weekly basis from 2010 to 2013 at four sites over an altitudinal gradient (25-900 m) in the eastern Canadian boreal forest. We determined the timings of onset and termination through the fitted functions and their first derivative. We quantified the potential relationships between primary growth and secondary growth using the mixed-effects model. We found that xylem formation of boreal conifers can be modeled as a function of cambium activity, bud phenology, and shoot and needle growth, as well as species- and site-specific factors. Our model reveals that there may be an optimal mechanism to simultaneously allocate the photosynthetic products and stored nonstructural carbon to growth of different organs at different times in the growing season. This mathematical link can bridge phenological modeling, forest ecosystem productivity and carbon cycle modeling, which will certainly contribute to an improved prediction of ecosystem productivity and carbon equilibrium. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  17. In silico modeling for tumor growth visualization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanquartier, Fleur; Jean-Quartier, Claire; Cemernek, David; Holzinger, Andreas

    2016-08-08

    Cancer is a complex disease. Fundamental cellular based studies as well as modeling provides insight into cancer biology and strategies to treatment of the disease. In silico models complement in vivo models. Research on tumor growth involves a plethora of models each emphasizing isolated aspects of benign and malignant neoplasms. Biologists and clinical scientists are often overwhelmed by the mathematical background knowledge necessary to grasp and to apply a model to their own research. We aim to provide a comprehensive and expandable simulation tool to visualizing tumor growth. This novel Web-based application offers the advantage of a user-friendly graphical interface with several manipulable input variables to correlate different aspects of tumor growth. By refining model parameters we highlight the significance of heterogeneous intercellular interactions on tumor progression. Within this paper we present the implementation of the Cellular Potts Model graphically presented through Cytoscape.js within a Web application. The tool is available under the MIT license at https://github.com/davcem/cpm-cytoscape and http://styx.cgv.tugraz.at:8080/cpm-cytoscape/ . In-silico methods overcome the lack of wet experimental possibilities and as dry method succeed in terms of reduction, refinement and replacement of animal experimentation, also known as the 3R principles. Our visualization approach to simulation allows for more flexible usage and easy extension to facilitate understanding and gain novel insight. We believe that biomedical research in general and research on tumor growth in particular will benefit from the systems biology perspective.

  18. Distribution of bioluminescent fungi across old-growth and secondary tropical rain forest in Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Seas-Carvajal

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Most research on bioluminescent fungi is concentrated on their taxonomic relationships, while the basics of their natural history and ecological relationships are poorly understood. In this study, we compared the distribution of bioluminescent fungi between old-growth and secondary forest as related to four different soil types at the tropical rainforest of La Selva Biological Station in Costa Rica. The study was conducted during the wet season of 2009. Bioluminescent fungi were sought following eight different transects distributed evenly in old-growth and secondary forests across four different soil types, covering an area of 9 420m². We found fungi in four different substrates: litter, fallen branches, dead trunks, and roots, for a total of 61 samples. Correspondence analysis showed that the occurrence of fungi and soil types were related (inertia=0.21, p=0.071. We found a significant relationship between the presence of fungi and the distribution of soil types (X²=18.89, df=9, p=0.026. We found only three samples with fruiting bodies, two of which had Mycena and the other had one fungus of the order Xylariales (possibly Hypoxylon sp., Kretzschmariella sp., Xylaria sp.. Future work will concentrate on exploring other aspects of their ecology, such as their dispersal and substrate preference. This information will facilitate field identification and will foster more research on the distribution, seasonality, reproductive phenology and ecological requirements of this group of Fungi.

  19. Seedling growth in greenhouse conditions of the forest species Dialium guianense (Aubl. Sandwith

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Vargas Simon

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Dialium guianense is used for its wood and fruit production, and is a tropical tree species native to evergreen forests. Given the threat these forests face, the purpose of this work was to evaluate the initial growth of the plant under greenhouse conditions, for aiming in the development of propagation programs. Seedlings of the species were transplanted to nursery bags under a completely randomized design and grown for 10 months with an initial population of 200 plants. At the end of the experiment, the shoot and root reached lengths of 32.8 and 28.9 cm, respectively. The average number of composite leaves was 12.3 each with seven leaflets. The average biomass was 2.5 g for the shoot, 1.6 g for roots, and 3.7 g for leaves, with a shoot/root around four. The average relative growth rate (RGR was 15 mg g-1 day-. These characteristics indicate that D. guianense is a late successional species.

  20. Forest food chain and dose model (FDMF) for RODOS. Model description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rantavaara, A.; Vetikko, V.; Calmon, P.; Wendt, J.

    2001-12-01

    In the early phase of a large-scale fallout situation, both access to forests and the use of wild foods may need temporal restrictions. In a later phase wild foods and internal doses received through them may still need surveillance of radioactivity. After accidental fallout a major source of external radiation are the ground deposits, and in forests contaminated overstorey can also be a considerable source. For consideration of dose pathways related to forests during a nuclear emergency the Forest Food Chain and Dose Model (FDMF) was developed. It is an integral part of RODOS, a real-time, on-line decision support system for off-site emergency management in Europe. The forest module FDMF receives radionuclide concentrations in air as input from the air dispersion model of RODOS, and calculates activities deposited on various parts of the forest. The model simulates the transfer of radionuclides in the forest ecosystem. It quantifies the dynamic changes for three types of forests, typical of a region. The model gives the contamination of forest products and dose rate for external radiation as a function of time. External and internal radiation doses for various population groups according to their stay in forests and their use of forest products can be assessed since the first year until the 50 th year after the fallout event. Doses are calculated for children and adults representing the public, and ingestion doses also for pickers of berries and mushrooms, and hunters. Forest workers are a special group due to their potentially enhanced external dose from outdoor working. The model results can be shown as spatial distributions on top of geographical maps. Many parameters in the FDMF database are regional and have to be adjusted when the model is adapted for local conditions or new radioecological regions. Long-term predictions will be considerably improved when site-specific parameters are used. STUK developed the forest module together with IPSN (Institut de

  1. Estimating Forest fAPAR from Multispectral Landsat-8 Data Using the Invertible Forest Reflectance Model INFORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huili Yuan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation in forests (forest fAPAR from multi-spectral Landsat-8 data is investigated in this paper using a physically based radiative transfer model (Invertible Forest Reflectance Model, INFORM combined with an inversion strategy based on artificial neural nets (ANN. To derive the forest fAPAR for the Dabie mountain test site in China in 30 m spatial resolution (size approximately 3000 km2, a database of forest canopy spectral reflectances was simulated with INFORM taking into account structural variables such as leaf area index (LAI, crown coverage and stem density as well as leaf composition. To establish the relationship between forest fAPAR and the reflectance modeled by INFORM, a logarithmic relationship between LAI and fAPAR was used previously established using on-site field measurements. On this basis, predictive models between Landsat-8 reflectance and fAPAR were established using an artificial neural network. After calibrating INFORM for the test site, forty-two forest stands were used to validate the performance of the method. The results show that spectral signatures modeled by INFORM correspond reasonably well with the forest canopy reflectance spectra derived from Landsat data. Deviations increase with increasing angle between surface normal of the hilly terrain and sun incidence. The comparison of estimated and measured fAPAR (R2 = 0.47, RMSE = 0.11 demonstrates that INFORM can be inverted using neural nets to provide acceptable estimates of forest fAPAR. The accuracy of the predictions increased significantly when excluding pixels located in very steep terrain. This demonstrates that the applied topographic correction was not sufficiently accurate and should be improved for making optimum use of radiative transfer models such as INFORM.

  2. Managing Understory Vegetation for Maintaining Productivity in Black Spruce Forests: A Synthesis within a Multi-Scale Research Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilles Joanisse

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable management of boreal ecosystems involves the establishment of vigorous tree regeneration after harvest. However, two groups of understory plants influence regeneration success in eastern boreal Canada. Ericaceous shrubs are recognized to rapidly dominate susceptible boreal sites after harvest. Such dominance reduces recruitment and causes stagnant conifer growth, lasting decades on some sites. Additionally, peat accumulation due to Sphagnum growth after harvest forces the roots of regenerating conifers out of the relatively nutrient rich and warm mineral soil into the relatively nutrient poor and cool organic layer, with drastic effects on growth. Shifts from once productive black spruce forests to ericaceous heaths or paludified forests affect forest productivity and biodiversity. Under natural disturbance dynamics, fires severe enough to substantially reduce the organic layer thickness and affect ground cover species are required to establish a productive regeneration layer on such sites. We succinctly review how understory vegetation influences black spruce ecosystem dynamics in eastern boreal Canada, and present a multi-scale research model to understand, limit the loss and restore productive and diverse ecosystems in this region. Our model integrates knowledge of plant-level mechanisms in the development of silvicultural tools to sustain productivity. Fundamental knowledge is integrated at stand, landscape, regional and provincial levels to understand the distribution and dynamics of ericaceous shrubs and paludification processes and to support tactical and strategic forest management. The model can be adapted and applied to other natural resource management problems, in other biomes.

  3. Use of models in large-area forest surveys: comparing model-assisted, model-based and hybrid estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goran Stahl; Svetlana Saarela; Sebastian Schnell; Soren Holm; Johannes Breidenbach; Sean P. Healey; Paul L. Patterson; Steen Magnussen; Erik Naesset; Ronald E. McRoberts; Timothy G. Gregoire

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the development of models predicting the variables of interest in forest surveys. We present, review and compare three different estimation frameworks where...

  4. Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chazdon, R.L.; Broadbent, E.N.; Rozendaal, Danae; Bongers, F.; Jakovac, A.C.; Braga Junqueira, A.; Lohbeck, M.W.M.; Pena Claros, M.; Poorter, L.

    2016-01-01

    Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We

  5. The responses of a forest model to serial correlations of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Y.; Pastor, J.

    1991-01-01

    Predictions of CO 2 -inducing changes to climate have focused on equilibrial responses of the global climate system to different levels of trace-gas forcings. The authors forced a forest ecosystem model with linear changes in temperature and precipitation and varied the degree of serial correlation around mean values. The ecosystem model considers the establishment and growth of individual trees in a 1/12 haplot and their responses to degree days, soil water deficits, soil nitrogen availability, and light. A recent formal analysis indicates that the model output is more sensitive to changes in means and variances of temperature, as opposed to precipitation. Of particular interest to the current paper is the assumption that the probability of mortality increases from about 10% to 30% upon two consecutive years of slow growth due to stress. Thus, year-to-year serial correlations could potentially increase mortality compared with random variation between years. Using this model, Pastor and Post (1988) showed that the forests of the boreal-northern hardwood transition zone in the Lake Superior region are particularly sensitive to climate warming

  6. Differences in growth trajectory and strategy of two sympatric congeneric species in an Indonesian floodplain forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Toshihiro; Ngakan, Oka Putu; Suzuki, Eizi

    2005-01-01

    Whole-plant development trajectories and sapling leaf displays were compared for two sympatric congeneric species, Pterospermum diversifolium and P. javanicum, in a tropical floodplain forest in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. We assessed their growth strategies and developed hypotheses for their coexistence within the community. Pterospermum diversifolium retains a monoaxial growth habit that promotes quick stem elongation; thus, it is taller when branches are initiated than is P. javanicum. The species differed significantly in height growth and total crown expansion per unit increment of biomass: monoaxial P. diversifolium saplings devote more effort to stem elongation, whereas branched P. javanicum saplings devote more effort to branch expansion. Monoaxial P. diversifolium sustained more severe self-shading than P. javanicum. The sapling growth strategy of P. diversifolium appears to be dynamic, emphasizing the opportunistic use of light following a disturbance, whereas that of P. javanicum appears to be static, optimizing leaf display for current light conditions. The advantages of these strategies depend on context, and the two species may coexist within a community by adopting different regeneration niches based on differing understory light conditions: P. diversifolium is favored over P. javanicum at high light levels, but the opposite is true at low light levels.

  7. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-01-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  8. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  9. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  10. The Effect of Herbivory by White-Tailed Deer and Additionally Swamp Rabbits in an Old-Growth Bottomland Hardwood Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margaret S. Devall; Bernard R. Parresol; Winston P. Smith

    2001-01-01

    Forest openings create internal patchiness and offer different habitat qualities that attract wildlife, especially herbivores, that flourish along forest edges. But intense herbivory in these openings can reduce or eliminate herbaceous and woody species and thus influence local species composition and structure of the forest. This study in an old-growth bottomland...

  11. Climate, Tree Growth, Forest Drought Stress, and Tree Mortality in Forests of Western North America: Long-Term Patterns and Recent Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, C. D.; Williams, P.

    2012-12-01

    Ongoing climate changes are increasingly affecting the world's forests, particularly including high latitude and high elevation coniferous forests. Although forest growth has improved in some regions due to greater growing season length and warmth (perhaps along with increased atmospheric CO2 or N), large growth declines or increased mortality from droughts or hotter temperatures also are being observed. We present and interpret information on regional variation in climate-tree growth relationships and trends, and on patterns and trends of climate-related forest disturbances, from western North America. From 235 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we show that tree-ring growth records from warmer southwestern sites are more sensitive to temperature than tree-ring growth records from cooler southwestern sites. Assessment of 59 tree-ring records from 11 species in the Cascade Mountains of the Pacific Northwest shows that trees growing in cool places respond positively to increased temperature and trees in warm places respond negatively, implying that trees historically not sensitive to temperature may become sensitive as mean temperatures warm. An analysis of 59 white spruce populations in Alaska supports the hypothesis that warming has caused tree growth to lose sensitivity to cold temperatures. Comparing ring widths to temperature during just the coldest 50% of years during the 20th century, tree growth was sensitive to cold temperatures, and this effect was strongest at the coldest sites; whereas during the warmest 50% of years, trees were not at all sensitive to cold temperatures, even at the cold sites. Drought and vapor pressure deficit are among the variables that emerge as being increasingly important to these Alaska boreal forests as mean temperatures rise. Most recently, from 346 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we establish a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the three most widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis

  12. Nutrient foraging strategies are associated with productivity and population growth in forest shrubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplan, Joshua S; Stone, Bram W G; Faillace, Cara A; Lafond, Jonathan J; Baumgarten, Joni M; Mozdzer, Thomas J; Dighton, John; Meiners, Scott J; Grabosky, Jason C; Ehrenfeld, Joan G

    2017-04-01

    Temperate deciduous forest understoreys are experiencing widespread changes in community composition, concurrent with increases in rates of nitrogen supply. These shifts in plant abundance may be driven by interspecific differences in nutrient foraging (i.e. conservative vs. acquisitive strategies) and, thus, adaptation to contemporary nutrient loading conditions. This study sought to determine if interspecific differences in nutrient foraging could help explain patterns of shrub success and decline in eastern North American forests. Using plants grown in a common garden, fine root traits associated with nutrient foraging were measured for six shrub species. Traits included the mean and skewness of the root diameter distribution, specific root length (SRL), C:N ratio, root tissue density, arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization and foraging precision. Above- and below-ground productivity were also determined for the same plants, and population growth rates were estimated using data from a long-term study of community dynamics. Root traits were compared among species and associations among root traits, measures of productivity and rates of population growth were evaluated. Species fell into groups having thick or thin root forms, which correspond to conservative vs. acquisitive nutrient foraging strategies. Interspecific variation in root morphology and tissue construction correlated with measures of productivity and rates of cover expansion. Of the four species with acquisitive traits, three were introduced species that have become invasive in recent decades, and the fourth was a weedy native. In contrast, the two species with conservative traits were historically dominant shrubs that have declined in abundance in eastern North American forests. In forest understoreys of eastern North America, elevated nutrient availability may impose a filter on species success in addition to above-ground processes such as herbivory and overstorey canopy conditions. Shrubs that have

  13. Distribution of cavity trees in midwestern old-growth and second-growth forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaofei Fan; Stephen R. Shifley; Martin A. Spetich; Frank R. Thompson; David R. Larsen

    2003-01-01

    We used classification and regression tree analysis to determine the primary variables associated with the occurrence of cavity trees and the hierarchical structure among those variables. We applied that information to develop logistic models predicting cavity tree probability as a function of diameter, species group, and decay class. Inventories of cavity abundance in...

  14. Low-temperature catalyst activator: mechanism of dense carbon nanotube forest growth studied using synchrotron radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akito Takashima

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The mechanism of the one-order-of-magnitude increase in the density of vertically aligned carbon nanotubes (CNTs achieved by a recently developed thermal chemical vapor deposition process was studied using synchrotron radiation spectroscopic techniques. In the developed process, a Ti film is used as the underlayer for an Fe catalyst film. A characteristic point of this process is that C2H2 feeding for the catalyst starts at a low temperature of 450°C, whereas conventional feeding temperatures are ∼800°C. Photoemission spectroscopy using soft and hard X-rays revealed that the Ti underlayer reduced the initially oxidized Fe layer at 450°C. A photoemission intensity analysis also suggested that the oxidized Ti layer at 450°C behaved as a support for nanoparticle formation of the reduced Fe, which is required for dense CNT growth. In fact, a CNT growth experiment, where the catalyst chemical state was monitored in situ by X-ray absorption spectroscopy, showed that the reduced Fe yielded a CNT forest at 450°C. Contrarily, an Fe layer without the Ti underlayer did not yield such a CNT forest at 450°C. Photoemission electron microscopy showed that catalyst annealing at the conventional feeding temperature of 800°C caused excess catalyst agglomeration, which should lead to sparse CNTs. In conclusion, in the developed growth process, the low-temperature catalyst activation by the Ti underlayer before the excess Fe agglomeration realised the CNT densification.

  15. Dynamic anthropogenic edge effects on the distribution and diversity of fungi in fragmented old-growth forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruete, Alejandro; Snäll, Tord; Jönsson, Mari

    2016-07-01

    Diversity patterns and dynamics at forest edges are not well understood. We disentangle the relative importance of edge-effect variables on spatio-temporal patterns in species richness and occupancy of deadwood-dwelling fungi in fragmented old-growth forests. We related richness and log occupancy by 10 old-growth forest indicator fungi and by two common fungi to log conditions in natural and anthropogenic edge habitats of 31 old-growth Picea abies forest stands in central Sweden. We compared edge-to-interior gradients (100 m) to the forest interior (beyond 100 m), and we analyzed stand-level changes after 10 yr. Both richness and occupancy of logs by indicator species was negatively related to adjacent young clear-cut edges, but this effect decreased with increasing clear-cut age. The occupancy of logs by indicator species also increased with increasing distance to the natural edges. In contrast, the occupancy of logs by common species was positively related or unrelated to distance to clear-cut edges regardless of the edge age, and this was partly explained by fungal specificity to substrate quality. Stand-level mean richness and mean occupancy of logs did not change for indicator or common species over a decade. By illustrating the importance of spatial and temporal dimensions of edge effects, we extend the general understanding of the distribution and diversity of substrate-confined fungi in fragmented old-growth forests. Our results highlight the importance of longer forest rotation times adjacent to small protected areas and forest set-asides, where it may take more than 50 yr for indicator species richness levels to recover to occupancy levels observed in the forest interior. Also, non-simultaneous clear-cutting of surrounding productive forests in a way that reduces the edge effect over time (i.e., dynamic buffers) may increase the effective core area of small forest set-asides and improve their performance on protecting species of special concern for

  16. Mating system, population growth, and management scenario for Kalanchoe pinnata in an invaded seasonally dry tropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González de León, Salvador; Herrera, Ileana; Guevara, Roger

    2016-07-01

    Ecological invasions are a major issue worldwide, where successful invasion depends on traits that facilitate dispersion, establishment, and population growth. The nonnative succulent plant Kalanchoe pinnata, reported as invasive in some countries, is widespread in remnants of seasonally dry tropical forest on a volcanic outcrop with high conservation value in east-central Mexico where we assessed its mating system and demographic growth and identified management strategies. To understand its local mating system, we conducted hand-pollination treatments, germination, and survival experiments. Based on the experimental data, we constructed a life-stage population matrix, identified the key traits for population growth, weighted the contributions of vegetative and sexual reproduction, and evaluated management scenarios. Hand-pollination treatments had slight effects on fruit and seed setting, as well as on germination. With natural pollination treatment, the successful germination of seeds from only 2/39 fruit suggests occasional effective natural cross-pollination. The ratios of the metrics for self- and cross-pollinated flowers suggest that K. pinnata is partially self-compatible. Most of the pollinated flowers developed into fruit, but the seed germination and seedling survival rates were low. Thus, vegetative propagation and juvenile survival are the main drivers of population growth. Simulations of a virtual K. pinnata population suggest that an intense and sustained weeding campaign will reduce the population within at least 10 years. Synthesis and applications. The study population is partially self-compatible, but sexual reproduction by K. pinnata is limited at the study site, and population growth is supported by vegetative propagation and juvenile survival. Demographic modeling provides key insights and realistic forecasts on invasion process and therefore is useful to design management strategies.

  17. Growth and mycorrhizal community structure of Pinus sylvestris seedlings following the addition of forest litter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aucina, Algis; Rudawska, Maria; Leski, Tomasz; Skridaila, Audrius; Riepsas, Edvardas; Iwanski, Michal

    2007-08-01

    We report the effects of pine and oak litter on species composition and diversity of mycorrhizal fungi colonizing 2-year-old Pinus sylvestris L. seedlings grown in a bare-root nursery in Lithuania. A layer of pine or oak litter was placed on the surface of the nursery bed soil to mimic natural litter cover. Oak litter amendment appeared to be most favorable for seedling survival, with a 73% survival rate, in contrast to the untreated mineral bed soil (44%). The concentrations of total N, P, K, Ca, and Mg were higher in oak growth medium than in pine growth medium. Relative to the control (pH 6.1), the pH was lower in pine growth medium (5.8) and higher in oak growth medium (6.3). There were also twofold and threefold increases in the C content of growth medium with the addition of pine and oak litter, respectively. Among seven mycorrhizal morphotypes, eight different mycorrhizal taxa were identified: Suillus luteus, Suillus variegatus, Wilcoxina mikolae, a Tuber sp., a Tomentella sp., Cenococcum geophilum, Amphinema byssoides, and one unidentified ectomycorrhizal symbiont. Forest litter addition affected the relative abundance of mycorrhizal symbionts more than their overall representation. This was more pronounced for pine litter than for oak litter, with 40% and 25% increases in the abundance of suilloid mycorrhizae, respectively. Our findings provide preliminary evidence that changes in the supply of organic matter through litter manipulation may have far-reaching effects on the chemistry of soil, thus influencing the growth and survival of Scots pine seedlings and their mycorrhizal communities.

  18. Growth and Mycorrhizal Community Structure of Pinus sylvestris Seedlings following the Addition of Forest Litter▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aučina, Algis; Rudawska, Maria; Leski, Tomasz; Skridaila, Audrius; Riepšas, Edvardas; Iwanski, Michal

    2007-01-01

    We report the effects of pine and oak litter on species composition and diversity of mycorrhizal fungi colonizing 2-year-old Pinus sylvestris L. seedlings grown in a bare-root nursery in Lithuania. A layer of pine or oak litter was placed on the surface of the nursery bed soil to mimic natural litter cover. Oak litter amendment appeared to be most favorable for seedling survival, with a 73% survival rate, in contrast to the untreated mineral bed soil (44%). The concentrations of total N, P, K, Ca, and Mg were higher in oak growth medium than in pine growth medium. Relative to the control (pH 6.1), the pH was lower in pine growth medium (5.8) and higher in oak growth medium (6.3). There were also twofold and threefold increases in the C content of growth medium with the addition of pine and oak litter, respectively. Among seven mycorrhizal morphotypes, eight different mycorrhizal taxa were identified: Suillus luteus, Suillus variegatus, Wilcoxina mikolae, a Tuber sp., a Tomentella sp., Cenococcum geophilum, Amphinema byssoides, and one unidentified ectomycorrhizal symbiont. Forest litter addition affected the relative abundance of mycorrhizal symbionts more than their overall representation. This was more pronounced for pine litter than for oak litter, with 40% and 25% increases in the abundance of suilloid mycorrhizae, respectively. Our findings provide preliminary evidence that changes in the supply of organic matter through litter manipulation may have far-reaching effects on the chemistry of soil, thus influencing the growth and survival of Scots pine seedlings and their mycorrhizal communities. PMID:17575001

  19. Spider (Arachnida, Araneae) diversity in secondary and old-growth southern Atlantic forests of Paraná state, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raub, Florian; Höfer, Hubert; Scheuermann, Ludger

    2017-07-01

    The data presented here have been collected in the southern part of the Atlantic Forest (Mata Atlântica) in the state of Paraná, Brazil within a bilateral scientific project (SOLOBIOMA). The project aimed to assess the quality of secondary forests of different regeneration stages in comparison with old-growth forests with regard to diversity of soil animals and related functions. The Atlantic Forest is a hotspot of biological diversity with an exceptionally high degree of endemic species, extending over a range of 3,500 km along the coast of Brazil. The anthropogenic pressure in the region is very high with three of the biggest cities of Brazil (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Curitiba) lying in its extension. An evaluation of the value of secondary forests for biodiversity conservation is becoming more and more important due to the complete disappearance of primary forests. In 2005, we sampled spiders in 12 sites of three successional stages (5-8, 10-15, 35-50 yr old, three replicates of each forest stage) and old-growth forests (> 100 yr untouched, also three replicates). All sites were inside a private nature reserve (Rio Cachoeira Nature Reserve). We repeated the sampling design and procedure in 2007 in a second private reserve (Itaqui Nature Reserve). The two nature reserves are within about 25 km of each other within a well preserved region of the Mata Atlântica, where the matrix of the landscape mosaic is still forest. A widely accepted standard protocol was used in a replicated sampling design to apply statistical analyses to the resulting data set and allow for comparison with other studies in Brazil. Spiders were sorted to family level and counted; the adult spiders further identified to species if possible or classified as morphospecies with the help of several spider specialists. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  20. Modelling the growth of a methanotrophic biofilm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arcangeli, J.-P.; Arvin, E.

    1999-01-01

    This article discusses the growth of methanotrophic biofilms. Several independent biofilm growths scenarios involving different inocula were examined. Biofilm growth, substrate removal and product formation were monitored throughout the experiments. Based on the oxygen consumption it was concluded...... that heterotrophs and nitrifiers co-existed with methanotrophs in the biofilm. Heterotrophic biomass grew on soluble polymers formed by the hydrolysis of dead biomass entrapped in the biofilm. Nitrifier populations developed because of the presence of ammonia in the mineral medium. Based on these experimental...... was performed on this model. It indicated that the most influential parameters were those related to the biofilm (i.e. density; solid-volume fraction; thickness). This suggests that in order to improve the model, further research regarding the biofilm structure and composition is needed....

  1. Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.

    2009-04-01

    Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and

  2. The Chemistry of Atmosphere-Forest Exchange (CAFE Model – Part 1: Model description and characterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Wolfe

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the Chemistry of Atmosphere-Forest Exchange (CAFE model, a vertically-resolved 1-D chemical transport model designed to probe the details of near-surface reactive gas exchange. CAFE integrates all key processes, including turbulent diffusion, emission, deposition and chemistry, throughout the forest canopy and mixed layer. CAFE utilizes the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM and is the first model of its kind to incorporate a suite of reactions for the oxidation of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes, providing a more comprehensive description of the oxidative chemistry occurring within and above the forest. We use CAFE to simulate a young Ponderosa pine forest in the Sierra Nevada, CA. Utilizing meteorological constraints from the BEARPEX-2007 field campaign, we assess the sensitivity of modeled fluxes to parameterizations of diffusion, laminar sublayer resistance and radiation extinction. To characterize the general chemical environment of this forest, we also present modeled mixing ratio profiles of biogenic hydrocarbons, hydrogen oxides and reactive nitrogen. The vertical profiles of these species demonstrate a range of structures and gradients that reflect the interplay of physical and chemical processes within the forest canopy, which can influence net exchange.

  3. Modeling decay rates of dead wood in a neotropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hérault, Bruno; Beauchêne, Jacques; Muller, Félix; Wagner, Fabien; Baraloto, Christopher; Blanc, Lilian; Martin, Jean-Michel

    2010-09-01

    Variation of dead wood decay rates among tropical trees remains one source of uncertainty in global models of the carbon cycle. Taking advantage of a broad forest plot network surveyed for tree mortality over a 23-year period, we measured the remaining fraction of boles from 367 dead trees from 26 neotropical species widely varying in wood density (0.23-1.24 g cm(-3)) and tree circumference at death time (31.5-272.0 cm). We modeled decay rates within a Bayesian framework assuming a first order differential equation to model the decomposition process and tested for the effects of forest management (selective logging vs. unexploited), of mode of death (standing vs. downed) and of topographical levels (bottomlands vs. hillsides vs. hilltops) on wood decay rates. The general decay model predicts the observed remaining fraction of dead wood (R2 = 60%) with only two biological predictors: tree circumference at death time and wood specific density. Neither selective logging nor local topography had a differential effect on wood decay rates. Including the mode of death into the model revealed that standing dead trees decomposed faster than downed dead trees, but the gain of model accuracy remains rather marginal. Overall, these results suggest that the release of carbon from tropical dead trees to the atmosphere can be simply estimated using tree circumference at death time and wood density.

  4. Process-based modelling of tree and stand growth: towards a hierarchical treatment of multiscale processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makela, A.

    2003-01-01

    A generally accepted method has not emerged for managing the different temporal and spatial scales in a forest ecosystem. This paper reviews a hierarchical-modular modelling tradition, with the main focus on individual tree growth throughout the rotation. At this scale, model performance requires (i) realistic long-term dynamic properties, (ii) realistic responses of growth and mortality of competing individuals, and (iii) realistic responses to ecophysio-logical inputs. Model development and validation are illustrated through allocation patterns, height growth, and size-related feedbacks. Empirical work to test the approach is reviewed. In this approach, finer scale effects are embedded in parameters calculated using more detailed, interacting modules. This is exemplified by (i) the within-year effect of weather on annual photosynthesis, (ii) the effects of fast soil processes on carbon allocation and photosynthesis, and (iii) the utilization of detailed stem structure to predict wood quality. Prevailing management paradigms are reflected in growth modelling. A shift of emphasis has occurred from productivity in homogeneous canopies towards, e.g., wood quality versus total yield, spatially more explicit models, and growth decline in old-growth forests. The new problems emphasize the hierarchy of the system and interscale interactions, suggesting that the hierarchical-modular approach could prove constructive. (author)

  5. Modeling Fish Growth in Low Dissolved Oxygen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neilan, Rachael Miller

    2013-01-01

    This article describes a computational project designed for undergraduate students as an introduction to mathematical modeling. Students use an ordinary differential equation to describe fish weight and assume the instantaneous growth rate depends on the concentration of dissolved oxygen. Published laboratory experiments suggest that continuous…

  6. Stochastic Growth Models with No Discounting

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 4 (2007), s. 88-98 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/0990; GA ČR GA402/05/0115 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : economic dynamics * stochastic version of the Ramsey growth model * Markov decision processes Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  7. Environmental change impacts on the C- and N-cycle of European forests: a model comparison study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Cameron

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Forests are important components of the greenhouse gas balance of Europe. There is considerable uncertainty about how predicted changes to climate and nitrogen deposition will perturb the carbon and nitrogen cycles of European forests and thereby alter forest growth, carbon sequestration and N2O emission. The present study aimed to quantify the carbon and nitrogen balance, including the exchange of greenhouse gases, of European forests over the period 2010–2030, with a particular emphasis on the spatial variability of change. The analysis was carried out for two tree species: European beech and Scots pine. For this purpose, four different dynamic models were used: BASFOR, DailyDayCent, INTEGRATOR and Landscape-DNDC. These models span a range from semi-empirical to complex mechanistic. Comparison of these models allowed assessment of the extent to which model predictions depended on differences in model inputs and structure. We found a European average carbon sink of 0.160 ± 0.020 kgC m−2 yr−1 (pine and 0.138 ± 0.062 kgC m−2 yr−1 (beech and N2O source of 0.285 ± 0.125 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (pine and 0.575 ± 0.105 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (beech. The European average greenhouse gas potential of the carbon sink was 18 (pine and 8 (beech times that of the N2O source. Carbon sequestration was larger in the trees than in the soil. Carbon sequestration and forest growth were largest in central Europe and lowest in northern Sweden and Finland, N. Poland and S. Spain. No single driver was found to dominate change across Europe. Forests were found to be most sensitive to change in environmental drivers where the drivers were limiting growth, where changes were particularly large or where changes acted in concert. The models disagreed as to which environmental changes were most significant for the geographical variation in forest growth and as to which tree species showed the largest rate of carbon sequestration. Pine and beech forests were found to

  8. Climate-growth analysis for a Mexican dry forest tree shows strong impact of sea surface temperatures and predicts future growth declines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brienen, R.J.W.; Lebrija Trejos, E.E.; Zuidema, P.A.; Martínez- Ramos, M.

    2010-01-01

    Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond