WorldWideScience

Sample records for forest gap model

  1. Calibrating and testing a gap model for simulating forest management in the Oregon Coast Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabst, R.J.; Goslin, M.N.; Garman, S.L.; Spies, T.A.

    2008-01-01

    The complex mix of economic and ecological objectives facing today's forest managers necessitates the development of growth models with a capacity for simulating a wide range of forest conditions while producing outputs useful for economic analyses. We calibrated the gap model ZELIG to simulate stand-level forest development in the Oregon Coast Range as part of a landscape-scale assessment of different forest management strategies. Our goal was to incorporate the predictive ability of an empirical model with the flexibility of a forest succession model. We emphasized the development of commercial-aged stands of Douglas-fir, the dominant tree species in the study area and primary source of timber. In addition, we judged that the ecological approach of ZELIG would be robust to the variety of other forest conditions and practices encountered in the Coast Range, including mixed-species stands, small-scale gap formation, innovative silvicultural methods, and reserve areas where forests grow unmanaged for long periods of time. We parameterized the model to distinguish forest development among two ecoregions, three forest types and two site productivity classes using three data sources: chronosequences of forest inventory data, long-term research data, and simulations from an empirical growth-and-yield model. The calibrated model was tested with independent, long-term measurements from 11 Douglas-fir plots (6 unthinned, 5 thinned), 3 spruce-hemlock plots, and 1 red alder plot. ZELIG closely approximated developmental trajectories of basal area and large trees in the Douglas-fir plots. Differences between simulated and observed conifer basal area for these plots ranged from -2.6 to 2.4 m2/ha; differences in the number of trees/ha ???50 cm dbh ranged from -8.8 to 7.3 tph. Achieving these results required the use of a diameter-growth multiplier, suggesting some underlying constraints on tree growth such as the temperature response function. ZELIG also tended to overestimate

  2. Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond-Lamberty, B.; Fisk, J. P.; Holm, J. A.; Bailey, V.; Bohrer, G.; Gough, C. M.

    2015-01-01

    Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. It is thus unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging US forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models - Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), a classic big-leaf model, and the ZELIG and ED (Ecosystem Demography) gap-oriented models - could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ZELIG and ED correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes, in particular gross primary production or net primary production (NPP). Biome-BGC NPP was correctly resilient but for the wrong reasons, and could not match the absolute observational values. ZELIG and ED, in contrast, exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. It is thus an open question whether most ecosystem models will simulate correctly the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.

  3. Assessing climate change effects on long-term forest development: adjusting growth, phenology, and seed production in a gap model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van der P.J.; Jorritsma, I.T.M.; Kramer, K.

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivity of forest development to climate change is assessed using a gap model. Process descriptions in the gap model of growth, phenology, and seed production were adjusted for climate change effects using a detailed process-based growth modeland a regression analysis. Simulation runs over

  4. Structural Dynamics of Tropical Moist Forest Gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Maria O.; Keller, Michael; Morton, Douglas; Cook, Bruce; Lefsky, Michael; Ducey, Mark; Saleska, Scott; de Oliveira, Raimundo Cosme; Schietti, Juliana

    2015-01-01

    Gap phase dynamics are the dominant mode of forest turnover in tropical forests. However, gap processes are infrequently studied at the landscape scale. Airborne lidar data offer detailed information on three-dimensional forest structure, providing a means to characterize fine-scale (1 m) processes in tropical forests over large areas. Lidar-based estimates of forest structure (top down) differ from traditional field measurements (bottom up), and necessitate clear-cut definitions unencumbered by the wisdom of a field observer. We offer a new definition of a forest gap that is driven by forest dynamics and consistent with precise ranging measurements from airborne lidar data and tall, multi-layered tropical forest structure. We used 1000 ha of multi-temporal lidar data (2008, 2012) at two sites, the Tapajos National Forest and Ducke Reserve, to study gap dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon. Here, we identified dynamic gaps as contiguous areas of significant growth, that correspond to areas > 10 m2, with height gap at Tapajos National Forest (4.8 %) as compared to Ducke Reserve (2.0 %). On average, gaps were smaller at Ducke Reserve and closed slightly more rapidly, with estimated height gains of 1.2 m y-1 versus 1.1 m y-1 at Tapajos. At the Tapajos site, height growth in gap centers was greater than the average height gain in gaps (1.3 m y-1 versus 1.1 m y-1). Rates of height growth between lidar acquisitions reflect the interplay between gap edge mortality, horizontal ingrowth and gap size at the two sites. We estimated that approximately 10 % of gap area closed via horizontal ingrowth at Ducke Reserve as opposed to 6 % at Tapajos National Forest. Height loss (interpreted as repeat damage and/or mortality) and horizontal ingrowth accounted for similar proportions of gap area at Ducke Reserve (13 % and 10 %, respectively). At Tapajos, height loss had a much stronger signal (23 % versus 6 %) within gaps. Both sites demonstrate limited gap contagiousness defined by an

  5. Seed Dispersal, Microsites or Competition—What Drives Gap Regeneration in an Old-Growth Forest? An Application of Spatial Point Process Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georg Gratzer

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The spatial structure of trees is a template for forest dynamics and the outcome of a variety of processes in ecosystems. Identifying the contribution and magnitude of the different drivers is an age-old task in plant ecology. Recently, the modelling of a spatial point process was used to identify factors driving the spatial distribution of trees at stand scales. Processes driving the coexistence of trees, however, frequently unfold within gaps and questions on the role of resource heterogeneity within-gaps have become central issues in community ecology. We tested the applicability of a spatial point process modelling approach for quantifying the effects of seed dispersal, within gap light environment, microsite heterogeneity, and competition on the generation of within gap spatial structure of small tree seedlings in a temperate, old growth, mixed-species forest. By fitting a non-homogeneous Neyman–Scott point process model, we could disentangle the role of seed dispersal from niche partitioning for within gap tree establishment and did not detect seed densities as a factor explaining the clustering of small trees. We found only a very weak indication for partitioning of within gap light among the three species and detected a clear niche segregation of Picea abies (L. Karst. on nurse logs. The other two dominating species, Abies alba Mill. and Fagus sylvatica L., did not show signs of within gap segregation.

  6. Soil moisture in sessile oak forest gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagyvainé Kiss, Katalin Anita; Vastag, Viktor; Gribovszki, Zoltán; Kalicz, Péter

    2015-04-01

    By social demands are being promoted the aspects of the natural forest management. In forestry the concept of continuous forest has been an accepted principle also in Hungary since the last decades. The first step from even-aged stand to continuous forest can be the forest regeneration based on gap cutting, so small openings are formed in a forest due to forestry interventions. This new stand structure modifies the hydrological conditions for the regrowth. Without canopy and due to the decreasing amounts of forest litter the interception is less significant so higher amount of precipitation reaching the soil. This research focuses on soil moisture patterns caused by gaps. The spatio-temporal variability of soil water content is measured in gaps and in surrounding sessile oak (Quercus petraea) forest stand. Soil moisture was determined with manual soil moisture meter which use Time-Domain Reflectometry (TDR) technology. The three different sizes gaps (G1: 10m, G2: 20m, G3: 30m) was opened next to Sopron on the Dalos Hill in Hungary. First, it was determined that there is difference in soil moisture between forest stand and gaps. Second, it was defined that how the gap size influences the soil moisture content. To explore the short term variability of soil moisture, two 24-hour (in growing season) and a 48-hour (in dormant season) field campaign were also performed in case of the medium-sized G2 gap along two/four transects. Subdaily changes of soil moisture were performed. The measured soil moisture pattern was compared with the radiation pattern. It was found that the non-illuminated areas were wetter and in the dormant season the subdaily changes cease. According to our measurements, in the gap there is more available water than under the forest stand due to the less evaporation and interception loss. Acknowledgements: The research was supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV-2012-0004 and AGRARKLIMA.2 VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034.

  7. Avian diversity in forest gaps of Kibale Forest National Park, Uganda

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    been conducted in forest gaps, particularly in Africa. It is likely that gap ... of gaps used by elephants was significantly greater in the logged forest than ... 1996). Consequently, gaps are considered as keystone habitats for such species.

  8. Wind energy availability above gaps in a forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sogachev, Andrey; Mann, Jakob; Dellwik, Ebba

    2009-01-01

    installation strategies. The canopy-planetary boundary-layer model SCADIS is used to investigate the effect of forest gap size (within the diameter range of 3 - 75 tree heights, h) on wind energy related variables. A wind turbine was assumed with following features: the hub height and rotor diameter of 3.5h...... were estimated from modelled data. The results show that the effect of the forest gaps with diameters smaller than 55h on wind energy captured by the assumed wind turbine and located in the centre of round low-roughness gap is practically insignificant. The high level of spatial variation of considered......There is a lack of data on availability of wind energy above a forest disturbed by clear-cuts, where a wind energy developer may find an opportunity to install a wind farm. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models can provide spatial patterns of wind and turbulence, and help to develop optimal...

  9. A study of the influence of forest gaps on fire–atmosphere interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael T. Kiefer; Warren E. Heilman; Shiyuan Zhong; Joseph J. (Jay) Charney; Xindi (Randy) Bian

    2016-01-01

    Much uncertainty exists regarding the possible role that gaps in forest canopies play in modulating fire–atmosphere interactions in otherwise horizontally homogeneous forests. This study examines the influence of gaps in forest canopies on atmospheric perturbations induced by a low-intensity fire using the ARPS-CANOPY model, a version of the Advanced Regional...

  10. Gap characteristics of southeastern Ohio second-growth forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David M. Hix; Katherine K. Helfrich

    2003-01-01

    Transect sampling was used to assess the features of 30 gaps encountered in upland oak stands on the Wayne National Forest. Tip-ups caused the most canopy gaps (52 percent), two-thirds of which were small (

  11. Amazon forest ecosystem responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 and alterations in nutrient availability: filling the gaps with model-experiment integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian eHofhansl

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of elevated CO2 (eCO2 and alterations in nutrient availability on the carbon (C storage capacity and resilience of the Amazon forest remain highly uncertain. Carbon dynamics are controlled by multiple eco-physiological processes responding to environmental change, but we lack solid experimental evidence, hampering theory development and thus representation in ecosystem models. Here, we present two ecosystem-scale manipulation experiments, to be carried out in the Amazon, that examine tropical ecosystem responses to eCO2 and nutrient addition and thus will elucidate the representation of crucial ecological processes by ecosystem models. We highlight current gaps in our understanding of tropical ecosystem responses to projected global changes in light of the eco-physiological assumptions considered by current ecosystem models. We conclude that a more detailed process-based representation of the spatial (e.g. soil type; plant functional type and temporal (seasonal and inter-annual variation diversity of tropical forests is needed to enhance model predictions of ecosystem responses to projected global environmental change.

  12. Bridging gaps: On the performance of airborne LiDAR to model wood mouse-habitat structure relationships in pine forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaime-González, Carlos; Acebes, Pablo; Mateos, Ana; Mezquida, Eduardo T

    2017-01-01

    LiDAR technology has firmly contributed to strengthen the knowledge of habitat structure-wildlife relationships, though there is an evident bias towards flying vertebrates. To bridge this gap, we investigated and compared the performance of LiDAR and field data to model habitat preferences of wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) in a Mediterranean high mountain pine forest (Pinus sylvestris). We recorded nine field and 13 LiDAR variables that were summarized by means of Principal Component Analyses (PCA). We then analyzed wood mouse's habitat preferences using three different models based on: (i) field PCs predictors, (ii) LiDAR PCs predictors; and (iii) both set of predictors in a combined model, including a variance partitioning analysis. Elevation was also included as a predictor in the three models. Our results indicate that LiDAR derived variables were better predictors than field-based variables. The model combining both data sets slightly improved the predictive power of the model. Field derived variables indicated that wood mouse was positively influenced by the gradient of increasing shrub cover and negatively affected by elevation. Regarding LiDAR data, two LiDAR PCs, i.e. gradients in canopy openness and complexity in forest vertical structure positively influenced wood mouse, although elevation interacted negatively with the complexity in vertical structure, indicating wood mouse's preferences for plots with lower elevations but with complex forest vertical structure. The combined model was similar to the LiDAR-based model and included the gradient of shrub cover measured in the field. Variance partitioning showed that LiDAR-based variables, together with elevation, were the most important predictors and that part of the variation explained by shrub cover was shared. LiDAR derived variables were good surrogates of environmental characteristics explaining habitat preferences by the wood mouse. Our LiDAR metrics represented structural features of the forest

  13. Spatial-temporal modeling of forest gaps generated by colonization from below- and above-ground beetle species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, J.; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper

    Studies of forest declines are important, because they both reduce timber production and aect successional trajectories of landscapes and ecosystems. Of partic- ular interest is the decline of red pines which is characterized by expanding areas of dead and chlorotic trees in plantations throughou...

  14. Winter Responses of Forest Birds to Habitat Corridors and Gaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colleen Cassady St. Clair

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Forest fragmentation and habitat loss may disrupt the movement or dispersal of forest-dwelling birds. Despite much interest in the severity of these effects and ways of mitigating them, little is known about actual movement patterns in different habitat types. We studied the movement of wintering resident birds, lured by playbacks of mobbing calls, to compare the willingness of forest birds to travel various distances in continuous forest, along narrow corridors (fencerows, and across gaps in forest cover. We also quantified the willingness of Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus to cross gaps when alternative forested detour routes were available. All species were less likely to respond to the calls as distance increased to 200 m, although White-breasted Nuthatches (Sitta carolinensis and Hairy Woodpeckers (Picoides villosus were generally less likely to respond than chickadees and Downy Woodpeckers (P. pubescens. Chickadees were as likely to travel in corridors as in continuous forest, but were less likely to cross gaps as the gap distance increased. The other species were less willing to travel in corridors and gaps relative to forest, and the differences among habitats also increased with distance. For chickadees, gap-crossing decisions in the presence of forested detours varied over the range of distances that we tested, and were primarily influenced by detour efficiency (the length of the shortcut relative to the available detour. Over short distances, birds used forested detours, regardless of their efficiency. As absolute distances increased, birds tended to employ larger shortcuts in the open when detour efficiency was low or initial distance in the open was high, but they limited their distance from the nearest forest edge to 25 m. Thus, chickadees were unwilling to cross gaps of > 50 m when they had forested alternatives, yet they sometimes crossed gaps as large as 200 m when no such choice existed. Our results suggest that

  15. Forest-fire models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

    2013-01-01

    For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

  16. Gap analysis for forest productivity research investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.D. Vance

    2010-01-01

    The US forest sector is in the midst of an era of transition and opportunity. Expectations that forests are managed to sustain wildlife, water, soil, and other environmental values are increasing as are certification systems and state and national initiatives designed to insure those expectations are met.

  17. The fluctuating gap model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, Xiaobin

    2011-01-15

    The quasi-one-dimensional systems exhibit some unusual phenomenon, such as the Peierls instability, the pseudogap phenomena and the absence of a Fermi-Dirac distribution function line shape in the photoemission spectroscopy. Ever since the discovery of materials with highly anisotropic properties, it has been recognized that fluctuations play an important role above the three-dimensional phase transition. This regime where the precursor fluctuations are presented can be described by the so called fluctuating gap model (FGM) which was derived from the Froehlich Hamiltonian to study the low energy physics of the one-dimensional electron-phonon system. Not only is the FGM of great interest in the context of quasi-one-dimensional materials, liquid metal and spin waves above T{sub c} in ferromagnets, but also in the semiclassical approximation of superconductivity, it is possible to replace the original three-dimensional problem by a directional average over effectively one-dimensional problem which in the weak coupling limit is described by the FGM. In this work, we investigate the FGM in a wide temperature range with different statistics of the order parameter fluctuations. We derive a formally exact solution to this problem and calculate the density of states, the spectral function and the optical conductivity. In our calculation, we show that a Dyson singularity appears in the low energy density of states for Gaussian fluctuations in the commensurate case. In the incommensurate case, there is no such kind of singularity, and the zero frequency density of states varies differently as a function of the correlation lengths for different statistics of the order parameter fluctuations. Using the density of states we calculated with non-Gaussian order parameter fluctuations, we are able to calculate the static spin susceptibility which agrees with the experimental data very well. In the calculation of the spectral functions, we show that as the correlation increases, the

  18. The fluctuating gap model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Xiaobin

    2011-01-01

    The quasi-one-dimensional systems exhibit some unusual phenomenon, such as the Peierls instability, the pseudogap phenomena and the absence of a Fermi-Dirac distribution function line shape in the photoemission spectroscopy. Ever since the discovery of materials with highly anisotropic properties, it has been recognized that fluctuations play an important role above the three-dimensional phase transition. This regime where the precursor fluctuations are presented can be described by the so called fluctuating gap model (FGM) which was derived from the Froehlich Hamiltonian to study the low energy physics of the one-dimensional electron-phonon system. Not only is the FGM of great interest in the context of quasi-one-dimensional materials, liquid metal and spin waves above T c in ferromagnets, but also in the semiclassical approximation of superconductivity, it is possible to replace the original three-dimensional problem by a directional average over effectively one-dimensional problem which in the weak coupling limit is described by the FGM. In this work, we investigate the FGM in a wide temperature range with different statistics of the order parameter fluctuations. We derive a formally exact solution to this problem and calculate the density of states, the spectral function and the optical conductivity. In our calculation, we show that a Dyson singularity appears in the low energy density of states for Gaussian fluctuations in the commensurate case. In the incommensurate case, there is no such kind of singularity, and the zero frequency density of states varies differently as a function of the correlation lengths for different statistics of the order parameter fluctuations. Using the density of states we calculated with non-Gaussian order parameter fluctuations, we are able to calculate the static spin susceptibility which agrees with the experimental data very well. In the calculation of the spectral functions, we show that as the correlation increases, the quasi

  19. Impacts of elevated atmospheric CO2 on forest trees and forest ecosystems: knowledge gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karnosky, D.F.

    2003-06-01

    Atmospheric CO 2 is rising rapidly, and options for slowing the CO 2 rise are politically charged as they largely require reductions in industrial CO 2 emissions for most developed countries. As forests cover some 43% of the Earth's surface, account for some 70% of terrestrial net primary production (NPP), and are being bartered for carbon mitigation, it is critically important that we continue to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of elevated atmospheric CO 2 on forest tree growth, productivity, and forest ecosystem function. In this paper, 1 review knowledge gaps and research needs on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 on forest above- and below-ground growth and productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, water relations, wood quality, phonology, community dynamics and biodiversity, antioxidants and stress tolerance, interactions with air pollutants, heterotrophic interactions, and ecosystem functioning. Finally, 1 discuss research needs regarding modelling of the impacts of elevated atmospheric CO 2 on forests. Even though there has been a tremendous amount of research done with elevated CO 2 and forest trees, it remains difficult to predict future forest growth and productivity under elevated atmospheric CO 2 . Likewise, it is not easy to predict how forest ecosystem processes will respond to enriched CO 2 . The more we study the impacts of increasing CO 2 , the more we realize that tree and forest responses are yet largely uncertain due to differences in responsiveness by species, genotype, and functional group, and the complex interactions of elevated atmospheric CO 2 with soil fertility, drought, pests, and co-occurring atmospheric pollutants such as nitrogen deposition and O 3 . Furthermore, it is impossible to predict ecosystem-level responses based on short-term studies of young trees grown without interacting stresses and in small spaces without the element of competition. Long-term studies using free-air CO 2 enrichment (FACE

  20. Spatial-temporal modeling of forest gaps generated by colonization from below- and above-ground bark beetle species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jun; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper

    2008-01-01

    red turpentine beetle colonization, pine engraver bark beetle colonization, and mortality of red pine trees while accounting for correlation across space and over time. We extend traditional Markov random-field models to include temporal terms and multiple-response variables aimed at developing...... as well as posterior predictive distributions. In particular, we implement path sampling combined with perfect simulation for autologistic models while formally addressing the posterior propriety under an improper uniform prior. Our data analysis results suggest that red turpentine beetle colonization...... is associated with a higher likelihood of pine engraver bark beetle colonization and that pine engraver bark beetle colonization is associated with higher likelihood of red pine tree mortality, whereas there is no direct association between red turpentine beetle colonization and red pine tree mortality...

  1. Regeneration in canopy gaps of tierra-firme forest in the Peruvian Amazon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karsten, Rune Juelsborg; Jovanovic, Milos; Meilby, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    the regeneration dynamics of logging gaps with naturally occuring canopy gaps. In the concession of Consorcio Forestal Amazonico in the region of Ucayali in the Peruvian Amazon, a total of 210 circular sample plots were established in 35 gaps in unmanaged natural forest and 35 canopy gaps in forest managed...

  2. Forests under climate change and air pollution: gaps in understanding and future directions for research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyssek, R; Wieser, G; Calfapietra, C; de Vries, W; Dizengremel, P; Ernst, D; Jolivet, Y; Mikkelsen, T N; Mohren, G M J; Le Thiec, D; Tuovinen, J-P; Weatherall, A; Paoletti, E

    2012-01-01

    Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems ("supersites") will be conducive to addressing these gaps by enabling integration of experimentation and modelling within the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, as well as further model development. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. [Response of forest bird communities to forest gap in winter in southwestern China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Dong-Dong; Wu, Ying-Huan; Lu, Zhou; Jiang, Guang-Wei; Zhou, Fang

    2013-06-01

    Although forest gap ecology is an important field of study, research remains limited. By plot setting and point counted observation, the response of birds to forest gaps in winter as well as bird distribution patterns in forest gaps and intact canopies were studied in a north tropical monsoon forest of southwestern China from November 2011 to February 2012 in the Fangcheng Golden Camellia National Nature Reserve, Guangxi. The regression equation of bird species diversity to habitat factor was Y1=0.611+0.002 X13+0.043 X2+0.002 X5-0.003 X8+0.006 X10+0.008 X1 and the regression equation of bird species dominance index to habitat factor was Y3=0.533+0.001 X13+0.019 X2+0.002 X3-0.017 X4+0.002 X1. There were 45 bird species (2 orders and 13 families) recorded in the forest gap, accounting for 84.9% of all birds (n=45), with an average of 9.6 species (range: 2-22). Thirty-nine bird species (5 orders and 14 families) were recorded in non-gap areas, accounting for 73.6% of all birds (n=39), with an average of 5.3 species (range: 1-12). These results suggested that gap size, arbor average height (10 m from gap margin), arbor quantity (10 m from gap margin), shrub quantity (10 m from gap margin), herbal average coverage (1 m from gap margin) and bare land ratio were the key forest gap factors that influenced bird diversities. On the whole, bird diversity in the forest gap was greater than in the intact canopy. Spatial distributions in the forest gaps were also observed in the bird community. Most birds foraged in the "middle" and "canopy" layers in the vertical stratification. In addition, "nearly from" and "close from" contained more birds in relation to horizontal stratification. Feeding niche differentiation was suggested as the main reason for these distribution patterns.

  4. Avian distribution in treefall gaps and understorey of terra firme forest in the lowland Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    JR WUNDERLE; MICHAEL R. WILLIG; LUIZA MAGALLI PINTO HENRIQUES

    2005-01-01

    We compared the bird distributions in the understorey of treefall gaps and sites with intact canopy in Amazonian terra firme forest in Brazil. We compiled 2216 mist-net captures (116 species) in 32 gap and 32 forest sites over 22.3 months. Gap habitats differed from forest habitats in having higher capture rates, total captures, species richness and diversity....

  5. Forest filled with gaps : effects of gap size on water and nutrient cycling in tropical rain forest : a study in Guyana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dam, O. van

    2001-01-01

    Guyana's forests are selectively logged and a forest management is desired that is economically sustainable and ecologically responsible. Canopy gaps, created by selective logging, induce changes to microclimatic and edaphic conditions. These changes influence the regeneration of the

  6. Forests under climate change and air pollution: Gaps in understanding and future directions for research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matyssek, R.; Wieser, G.; Calfapietra, C.; Vries, W. de; Dizengremel, P.; Ernst, D.; Jolivet, Y.; Mikkelsen, T.N.; Mohren, G.M.J.; Le Thiec, D.; Tuovinen, J.-P.

    2012-01-01

    Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems (“supersites”) will be conducive to addressing these gaps by enabling integration of experimentation and modelling within the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, as well as further model development. - Highlights: ► Research needs are identified for forests under climate change and air pollution. ► Abiotic–biotic interactions in response impede tree-ecosystem upscaling. ► Integration of empirical and modelling research is advocated. ► The concept of multi-scale investigations at novel “Supersites” is propagated. ► “Supersites” warrant mechanistic understanding of soil-plant-atmosphere interface. - Forests under climate change and air pollution require empirical and modelling research needs to be integrated at novel “Supersites” through multi-scale investigations.

  7. Diversifying the composition and structure of managed late-successional forests with harvest gaps: What is the optimal gap size?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christel C. Kern; Anthony W. D’Amato; Terry F. Strong

    2013-01-01

    Managing forests for resilience is crucial in the face of uncertain future environmental conditions. Because harvest gap size alters the species diversity and vertical and horizontal structural heterogeneity, there may be an optimum range of gap sizes for conferring resilience to environmental uncertainty. We examined the impacts of different harvest gap sizes on...

  8. Forests under climate change and air pollution: Gaps in understanding and future directions for research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matyssek, R.; Wieser, G.; Calfapietra, C.

    2012-01-01

    Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between...... changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research...... for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems (“supersites”) will be conducive to addressing...

  9. Effects of Forest Gaps on Litter Lignin and Cellulose Dynamics Vary Seasonally in an Alpine Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To understand how forest gaps and the associated canopy control litter lignin and cellulose dynamics by redistributing the winter snow coverage and hydrothermal conditions in the growing season, a field litterbag trial was conducted in the alpine Minjiang fir (Abies faxoniana Rehder and E.H. Wilson forest in a transitional area located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Over the first year of litter decomposition, the litter exhibited absolute cellulose loss and absolute lignin accumulation except for the red birch litter. The changes in litter cellulose and lignin were significantly affected by the interactions among gap position, period and species. Litter cellulose exhibited a greater loss in the winter with the highest daily loss rate observed during the snow cover period. Both cellulose and lignin exhibited greater changes under the deep snow cover at the gap center in the winter, but the opposite pattern occurred under the closed canopy in the growing season. The results suggest that decreased snowpack seasonality due to winter warming may limit litter cellulose and lignin degradation in alpine forest ecosystems, which could further inhibit litter decomposition. As a result, the ongoing winter warming and gap vanishing would slow soil carbon sequestration from foliar litter in cold biomes.

  10. Gap Dynamics and Structure of Two Old-Growth Beech Forest Remnants in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugani, Tihomir; Diaci, Jurij; Hladnik, David

    2013-01-01

    Context Due to a long history of intensive forest exploitation, few European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) old-growth forests have been preserved in Europe. Material and Methods We studied two beech forest reserves in southern Slovenia. We examined the structural characteristics of the two forest reserves based on data from sample plots and complete inventory obtained from four previous forest management plans. To gain a better understanding of disturbance dynamics, we used aerial imagery to study the characteristics of canopy gaps over an 11-year period in the Kopa forest reserve and a 20-year period in the Gorjanci forest reserve. Results The results suggest that these forests are structurally heterogeneous over small spatial scales. Gap size analysis showed that gaps smaller than 500 m2 are the dominant driving force of stand development. The percentage of forest area in canopy gaps ranged from 3.2 to 4.5% in the Kopa forest reserve and from 9.1 to 10.6% in the Gorjanci forest reserve. These forests exhibit relatively high annual rates of coverage by newly established (0.15 and 0.25%) and closed (0.08 and 0.16%) canopy gaps. New gap formation is dependant on senescent trees located throughout the reserve. Conclusion We conclude that these stands are not even-sized, but rather unevenly structured. This is due to the fact that the disturbance regime is characterized by low intensity, small-scale disturbances. PMID:23308115

  11. Tracking the Creation of Tropical Forest Canopy Gaps with UAV Computer Vision Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandois, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    The formation of canopy gaps is fundamental for shaping forest structure and is an important component of ecosystem function. Recent time-series of airborne LIDAR have shown great promise for improving understanding of the spatial distribution and size of forest gaps. However, such work typically looks at gap formation across multiple years and important intra-annual variation in gap dynamics remains unknown. Here we present findings on the intra-annual dynamics of canopy gap formation within the 50 ha forest dynamics plot of Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama based on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing. High-resolution imagery (7 cm GSD) over the 50 ha plot was obtained regularly (≈ every 10 days) beginning October 2014 using a UAV equipped with a point and shoot camera. Imagery was processed into three-dimensional (3D) digital surface models (DSMs) using automated computer vision structure from motion / photogrammetric methods. New gaps that formed between each UAV flight were identified by subtracting DSMs between each interval and identifying areas of large deviation. A total of 48 new gaps were detected from 2014-10-02 to 2015-07-23, with sizes ranging from less than 20 m2 to greater than 350 m2. The creation of new gaps was also evaluated across wet and dry seasons with 4.5 new gaps detected per month in the dry season (Jan. - May) and 5.2 per month outside the dry season (Oct. - Jan. & May - July). The incidence of gap formation was positively correlated with ground-surveyed liana stem density (R2 = 0.77, p < 0.001) at the 1 hectare scale. Further research will consider the role of climate in predicting gap formation frequency as well as site history and other edaphic factors. Future satellite missions capable of observing vegetation structure at greater extents and frequencies than airborne observations will be greatly enhanced by the high spatial and temporal resolution bridging scale made possible by UAV remote sensing.

  12. Nitrogen dynamics across silvicultural canopy gaps in young forests of western Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiel, A.L.; Perakis, S.S.

    2009-01-01

    Silvicultural canopy gaps are emerging as an alternative management tool to accelerate development of complex forest structure in young, even-aged forests of the Pacific Northwest. The effect of gap creation on available nitrogen (N) is of concern to managers because N is often a limiting nutrient in Pacific Northwest forests. We investigated patterns of N availability in the forest floor and upper mineral soil (0-10 cm) across 6-8-year-old silvicultural canopy gaps in three 50-70-year-old Douglas-fir forests spanning a wide range of soil N capital in the Coast Range and Cascade Mountains of western Oregon. We used extractable ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) pools, net N mineralization and nitrification rates, and NH4+ and NO3- ion exchange resin (IER) concentrations to quantify N availability along north-south transects run through the centers of 0.4 and 0.1 ha gaps. In addition, we measured several factors known to influence N availability, including litterfall, moisture, temperature, and decomposition rates. In general, gap-forest differences in N availability were more pronounced in the mineral soil than in the forest floor. Mineral soil extractable NH4+ and NO3- pools, net N mineralization and nitrification rates, and NH4+ and NO3- IER concentrations were all significantly elevated in gaps relative to adjacent forest, and in several cases exhibited significantly greater spatial variability in gaps than forest. Nitrogen availability along the edges of gaps more often resembled levels in the adjacent forest than in gap centers. For the majority of response variables, there were no significant differences between northern and southern transect positions, nor between 0.4 and 0.1 ha gaps. Forest floor and mineral soil gravimetric percent moisture and temperature showed few differences along transects, while litterfall carbon (C) inputs and litterfall C:N ratios in gaps were significantly lower than in the adjacent forest. Reciprocal transfer incubations of

  13. Arthropod abundance and seasonal bird use of bottomland forest harvest gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher E. Moorman; Liessa T. Woen; John C. Kilgo; James L. Hanula; Scott Horn; Michael D. Ulyshen

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the influence of arthropod abundance and vegetation structure on shifts in avian use of canopy gap, gap edge, and surrounding forest understory in a bottomland hardwood forest in the Upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina. We compared captures of foliage-gleaning birds among locations during four periods (spring migration, breeding, post-breeding, and...

  14. Canopy gap replacement failure in a Pennsylvania forest preserve subject to extreme deer herbivory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian S. Pedersen; Angela M. Wallis

    2003-01-01

    While research has demonstrated the adverse effects of deer herbivory on forest regeneration in forests managed for timber production, less study has been devoted to the long term effects of deer on the dynamics of forests set aside as natural areas. At sufficiently high population densities, deer could interrupt the typical cycle of canopy gap formation and...

  15. Tree dynamics in canopy gaps in old-growth forests of Nothofagus pumilio in Southern Chile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fajardo, Alex; Graaf, de N.R.

    2004-01-01

    The gap dynamics of two Nothofagus pumilio (lenga) stands have been investigated. We evaluated and compared tree diameter distributions, spatial patterns, tree fall and gap characteristics and regeneration responses in gaps in two old-growth forests of Nothofagus pumilio in Southern Chile

  16. Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV to Quantify Spatial Gap Patterns in Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan Getzin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Gap distributions in forests reflect the spatial impact of man-made tree harvesting or naturally-induced patterns of tree death being caused by windthrow, inter-tree competition, disease or senescence. Gap sizes can vary from large (>100 m2 to small (<10 m2, and they may have contrasting spatial patterns, such as being aggregated or regularly distributed. However, very small gaps cannot easily be recorded with conventional aerial or satellite images, which calls for new and cost-effective methodologies of forest monitoring. Here, we used an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV and very high-resolution images to record the gaps in 10 temperate managed and unmanaged forests in two regions of Germany. All gaps were extracted for 1-ha study plots and subsequently analyzed with spatially-explicit statistics, such as the conventional pair correlation function (PCF, the polygon-based PCF and the mark correlation function. Gap-size frequency was dominated by small gaps of an area <5 m2, which were particularly frequent in unmanaged forests. We found that gap distances showed a variety of patterns. However, the polygon-based PCF was a better descriptor of patterns than the conventional PCF, because it showed randomness or aggregation for cases when the conventional PCF showed small-scale regularity; albeit, the latter was only a mathematical artifact. The mark correlation function revealed that gap areas were in half of the cases negatively correlated and in the other half independent. Negative size correlations may likely be the result of single-tree harvesting or of repeated gap formation, which both lead to nearby small gaps. Here, we emphasize the usefulness of UAV to record forest gaps of a very small size. These small gaps may originate from repeated gap-creating disturbances, and their spatial patterns should be monitored with spatially-explicit statistics at recurring intervals in order to further insights into forest dynamics.

  17. Mapping the occurrence of Chromolaena odorata (L.) in subtropical forest gaps using environmental and remote sensing data

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malahlela, OE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Globally, subtropical forests are rich in biodiversity. However, the native biodiversity in these forests is threatened by the presence of invasive species such as Chromolaena odorata (L.) King and Robinson, which thrives in forest canopy gaps. Our...

  18. Regeneration in bottomland forest canopy gaps six years after variable retention harvests to enhance wildlife habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twedt, Daniel J.; Somershoe, Scott G.; Guldin, James M.

    2013-01-01

    To promote desired forest conditions that enhance wildlife habitat in bottomland forests, managers prescribed and implemented variable-retention harvest, a.k.a. wildlife forestry, in four stands on Tensas River National Wildlife Refuge, LA. These treatments created canopy openings (gaps) within which managers sought to regenerate shade-intolerant trees. Six years after prescribed harvests, we assessed regeneration in 41 canopy gaps and 4 large (>0.5-ha) patch cut openings that resulted from treatments and in 21 natural canopy gaps on 2 unharvested control stands. Mean gap area of anthropogenic gaps (582 m²) was greater than that of natural gaps (262 m²). Sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) and red oaks (Quercus nigra, Q. nuttallii, and Q. phellos) were common in anthropogenic gaps, whereas elms (Ulmus spp.) and sugarberry (Celtis laevigata) were numerous in natural gaps. We recommend harvest prescriptions include gaps with diameter >25 m, because the proportion of shade-intolerant regeneration increased with gap area up to 500 m². The proportion of shade-intolerant definitive gap fillers (individuals likely to occupy the canopy) increased with gap area: 35 percent in natural gaps, 54 percent in anthropogenic gaps, and 84 percent in patch cuts. Sweetgum, green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica), and red oaks were common definitive gap fillers.

  19. Tree Death Not Resulting in Gap Creation: An Investigation of Canopy Dynamics of Northern Temperate Deciduous Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Francois Senécal

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Several decades of research have shown that canopy gaps drive tree renewal processes in the temperate deciduous forest biome. In the literature, canopy gaps are usually defined as canopy openings that are created by partial or total tree death of one or more canopy trees. In this study, we investigate linkages between tree damage mechanisms and the formation or not of new canopy gaps in northern temperate deciduous forests. We studied height loss processes in unmanaged and managed forests recovering from partial cutting with multi-temporal airborne Lidar data. The Lidar dataset was used to detect areas where canopy height reduction occurred, which were then field-studied to identify the tree damage mechanisms implicated. We also sampled the density of leaf material along transects to characterize canopy structure. We used the dataset of the canopy height reduction areas in a multi-model inference analysis to determine whether canopy structures or tree damage mechanisms most influenced the creation of new canopy gaps within canopy height reduction areas. According to our model, new canopy gaps are created mainly when canopy damage enlarges existing gaps or when height is reduced over areas without an already established dense sub-canopy tree layer.

  20. Bridging the gap between ecosystem theory and forest watershed management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson Webster; Wayne Swank; James Vose; Jennifer Knoepp; Katherine Elliott

    2014-01-01

    The history of forests and logging in North America provides a back drop for our study of Watershed (WS) 7. Prior to European settlement, potentially commercial forests covered approximately 45% of North America, but not all of it was the pristine, ancient forest that some have imagined. Prior to 1492, Native Americans had extensive settlements throughout eastern...

  1. Bridging scale gaps between regional maps of forest aboveground biomass and field sampling plots using TanDEM-X data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, W.; Zhang, Z.; Sun, G.

    2017-12-01

    Several large-scale maps of forest AGB have been released [1] [2] [3]. However, these existing global or regional datasets were only approximations based on combining land cover type and representative values instead of measurements of actual forest aboveground biomass or forest heights [4]. Rodríguez-Veiga et al[5] reported obvious discrepancies of existing forest biomass stock maps with in-situ observations in Mexico. One of the biggest challenges to the credibility of these maps comes from the scale gaps between the size of field sampling plots used to develop(or validate) estimation models and the pixel size of these maps and the availability of field sampling plots with sufficient size for the verification of these products [6]. It is time-consuming and labor-intensive to collect sufficient number of field sampling data over the plot size of the same as resolutions of regional maps. The smaller field sampling plots cannot fully represent the spatial heterogeneity of forest stands as shown in Figure 1. Forest AGB is directly determined by forest heights, diameter at breast height (DBH) of each tree, forest density and tree species. What measured in the field sampling are the geometrical characteristics of forest stands including the DBH, tree heights and forest densities. The LiDAR data is considered as the best dataset for the estimation of forest AGB. The main reason is that LiDAR can directly capture geometrical features of forest stands by its range detection capabilities.The remotely sensed dataset, which is capable of direct measurements of forest spatial structures, may serve as a ladder to bridge the scale gaps between the pixel size of regional maps of forest AGB and field sampling plots. Several researches report that TanDEM-X data can be used to characterize the forest spatial structures [7, 8]. In this study, the forest AGB map of northeast China were produced using ALOS/PALSAR data taking TanDEM-X data as a bridges. The TanDEM-X InSAR data used in

  2. Kalman filter-based gap conductance modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tylee, J.L.

    1983-01-01

    Geometric and thermal property uncertainties contribute greatly to the problem of determining conductance within the fuel-clad gas gap of a nuclear fuel pin. Accurate conductance values are needed for power plant licensing transient analysis and for test analyses at research facilities. Recent work by Meek, Doerner, and Adams has shown that use of Kalman filters to estimate gap conductance is a promising approach. A Kalman filter is simply a mathematical algorithm that employs available system measurements and assumed dynamic models to generate optimal system state vector estimates. This summary addresses another Kalman filter approach to gap conductance estimation and subsequent identification of an empirical conductance model

  3. Regeneration in bottomland forest canopy gaps 6 years after variable retention harvests to enhance wildlife habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel J. Twedt; Scott G. Somershoe

    2013-01-01

    To promote desired forest conditions that enhance wildlife habitat in bottomland forests, managers prescribed and implemented variable-retention harvest, a.k.a. wildlife forestry, in four stands on Tensas River National Wildlife Refuge, LA. These treatments created canopy openings (gaps) within which managers sought to regenerate shade-intolerant trees. Six years after...

  4. Demographic disequilibrium caused by canopy gap expansion and recruitment failure triggers forest cover loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin Barrette; Louis Bélanger; Louis De Grandpré; Alejandro A. Royo

    2017-01-01

    In the absence of large-scale stand replacing disturbances, boreal forests can remain in the old-growth stage over time because of a dynamic equilibrium between small-scale mortality and regeneration processes. Although this gap paradigm has been a cornerstone of forest dynamics theory and practice for decades, evidence suggests that it could be disrupted, threatening...

  5. Bridging the gap between strategic and management forest inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts

    2009-01-01

    Strategic forest inventory programs collect information for a large number of variables on a relatively sparse array of field plots. Data from these inventories are used to produce estimates for large areas such as states and provinces, regions, or countries. The purpose of management forest inventories is to guide management decisions for small areas such as stands....

  6. Abundance of green tree frogs and insects in artificial canopy gaps in a bottomland hardwood forest.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horn, Scott; Hanula, James L.; Ulyshen, Michael D.; Kilgo, John C.

    2005-01-01

    Horn, Scott, James L. Hanula, Michael D. Ulyshen, and John C. Kilgo. 2005. Abundance of green tree frogs and insects in artificial canopy gaps in a bottomland hardwood forest. Am. Midl. Nat. 153:321-326. Abstract: We found more green tree frogs (Hyla cinerea) in canopy gaps than in closed canopy forest. Of the 331 green tree frogs observed, 88% were in canopy gaps. Likewise, higher numbers and biomasses of insects were captured in the open gap habitat. Flies were the most commonly collected insect group accounting for 54% of the total capture. These data suggest that one reason green tree frogs were more abundant in canopy gaps was the increased availability of prey and that small canopy gaps provide early successional habitats that are beneficial to green tree frog populations.

  7. Abundance of Green Tree Frogs and Insects in Artificial Canopy Gaps in a Bottomland Hardwood Forest.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horn, Scott; Hanula, James, L.; Ulyshen, Michael D.; Kilgo, John, C.

    2005-04-01

    ABSTRACT - We found more green tree frogs ( Hyla cinerea) n canopv gaps than in closed canopy forest. Of the 331 green tree frogs observed, 88% were in canopv gaps. Likewise, higher numbers and biomasses of insects were captured in the open gap habitat Flies were the most commonlv collected insect group accounting for 54% of the total capture. These data suggest that one reason green tree frogs were more abundant in canopy gaps was the increased availability of prey and that small canopy gaps provide early successional habitats that are beneficial to green tree frog populations.

  8. Slavic Forest, Norwegian Wood (models)

    OpenAIRE

    Rosa, Rudolf; Žabokrtský, Zdeněk; Zeman, Daniel; Mareček, David

    2017-01-01

    Trained models for UDPipe used to produce our final submission to VarDial 2017 shared task (https://bitbucket.org/hy-crossNLP/vardial2017) and described in a paper by the same authors titled Slavic Forest, Norwegian Wood.

  9. Modelling mixed forest growth : a review of models for forest management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Porte, A.; Bartelink, H.H.

    2002-01-01

    Most forests today are multi-specific and heterogeneous forests (`mixed forests'). However, forest modelling has been focusing on mono-specific stands for a long time, only recently have models been developed for mixed forests. Previous reviews of mixed forest modelling were restricted to certain

  10. Seed regeneration potential of canopy gaps at early formation stage in temperate secondary forests, Northeast China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao-Ling Yan

    Full Text Available Promoting the seed regeneration potential of secondary forests undergoing gap disturbances is an important approach for achieving forest restoration and sustainable management. Seedling recruitment from seed banks strongly determines the seed regeneration potential, but the process is poorly understood in the gaps of secondary forests. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the effects of gap size, seed availability, and environmental conditions on the seed regeneration potential in temperate secondary forests. It was found that gap formation could favor the invasion of more varieties of species in seed banks, but it also could speed up the turnover rate of seed banks leading to lower seed densities. Seeds of the dominant species, Fraxinus rhynchophylla, were transient in soil and there was a minor and discontinuous contribution of the seed bank to its seedling emergence. For Quercus mongolica, emerging seedling number was positively correlated with seed density in gaps (R = 0.32, P<0.01, especially in medium and small gaps (<500 m(2. Furthermore, under canopies, there was a positive correlation between seedling number and seed density of Acer mono (R = 0.43, P<0.01. Gap formation could promote seedling emergence of two gap-dependent species (i.e., Q. mongolica and A. mono, but the contribution of seed banks to seedlings was below 10% after gap creation. Soil moisture and temperature were the restrictive factors controlling the seedling emergence from seeds in gaps and under canopies, respectively. Thus, the regeneration potential from seed banks is limited after gap formation.

  11. Seed Regeneration Potential of Canopy Gaps at Early Formation Stage in Temperate Secondary Forests, Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Qiao-Ling; Zhu, Jiao-Jun; Yu, Li-Zhong

    2012-01-01

    Promoting the seed regeneration potential of secondary forests undergoing gap disturbances is an important approach for achieving forest restoration and sustainable management. Seedling recruitment from seed banks strongly determines the seed regeneration potential, but the process is poorly understood in the gaps of secondary forests. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the effects of gap size, seed availability, and environmental conditions on the seed regeneration potential in temperate secondary forests. It was found that gap formation could favor the invasion of more varieties of species in seed banks, but it also could speed up the turnover rate of seed banks leading to lower seed densities. Seeds of the dominant species, Fraxinus rhynchophylla, were transient in soil and there was a minor and discontinuous contribution of the seed bank to its seedling emergence. For Quercus mongolica, emerging seedling number was positively correlated with seed density in gaps (R = 0.32, P<0.01), especially in medium and small gaps (<500 m2). Furthermore, under canopies, there was a positive correlation between seedling number and seed density of Acer mono (R = 0.43, P<0.01). Gap formation could promote seedling emergence of two gap-dependent species (i.e., Q. mongolica and A. mono), but the contribution of seed banks to seedlings was below 10% after gap creation. Soil moisture and temperature were the restrictive factors controlling the seedling emergence from seeds in gaps and under canopies, respectively. Thus, the regeneration potential from seed banks is limited after gap formation. PMID:22745771

  12. Forest-management modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Twery; Aaron R. Weiskittel

    2013-01-01

    Forests are complex and dynamic ecosystems comprising individual trees that can vary in both size and species. In comparison to other organisms, trees are relatively long lived (40-2000 years), quite plastic in terms of their morphology and ecological niche, and adapted to a wide variety of habitats, which can make predicting their behaviour exceedingly difficult....

  13. The role of gap phase processes in the biomass dynamics of tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feeley, Kenneth J; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Nur Supardi, M.N; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Chave, Jérôme

    2007-01-01

    The responses of tropical forests to global anthropogenic disturbances remain poorly understood. Above-ground woody biomass in some tropical forest plots has increased over the past several decades, potentially reflecting a widespread response to increased resource availability, for example, due to elevated atmospheric CO2 and/or nutrient deposition. However, previous studies of biomass dynamics have not accounted for natural patterns of disturbance and gap phase regeneration, making it difficult to quantify the importance of environmental changes. Using spatially explicit census data from large (50 ha) inventory plots, we investigated the influence of gap phase processes on the biomass dynamics of four ‘old-growth’ tropical forests (Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama; Pasoh and Lambir, Malaysia; and Huai Kha Khaeng (HKK), Thailand). We show that biomass increases were gradual and concentrated in earlier-phase forest patches, while biomass losses were generally of greater magnitude but concentrated in rarer later-phase patches. We then estimate the rate of biomass change at each site independent of gap phase dynamics using reduced major axis regressions and ANCOVA tests. Above-ground woody biomass increased significantly at Pasoh (+0.72% yr−1) and decreased at HKK (−0.56% yr−1) independent of changes in gap phase but remained stable at both BCI and Lambir. We conclude that gap phase processes play an important role in the biomass dynamics of tropical forests, and that quantifying the role of gap phase processes will help improve our understanding of the factors driving changes in forest biomass as well as their place in the global carbon budget. PMID:17785266

  14. Spatial and temporal dynamics of forest canopy gaps following selective logging in the eastern Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    GREGORY P. ASNER; MICHAEL KELLER; JOSEN M. SILVA

    2004-01-01

    Selective logging is a dominant form of land use in the Amazon basin and throughout the humid tropics, yet little is known about the spatial variability of forest canopy gap formation and closure following timber harvests. We established chronosequences of large-area (14–158 ha) selective logging sites spanning a 3.5-year period of forest regeneration and two distinct...

  15. Timber productivity research gaps for extensive forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    L.C. Irland

    2011-01-01

    On extensive areas of small scale forests, significant opportunities for improving the value of future timber harvests while also improving other resource values are now being missed. A new focus on practical extensive management research is needed, especially as implementation of intensive practices has been declining in many areas, and new ‘‘close to nature’’...

  16. Modelling tropical forests response to logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; Di Paola, Arianna; Valentini, Riccardo; Paparella, Francesco

    2013-04-01

    Tropical rainforests are among the most threatened ecosystems by large-scale fragmentation due to human activity such as heavy logging and agricultural clearance. Although, they provide crucial ecosystem goods and services, such as sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, protecting watersheds and conserving biodiversity. In several countries forest resource extraction has experienced a shift from clearcutting to selective logging to maintain a significant forest cover and understock of living biomass. However the knowledge on the short and long-term effects of removing selected species in tropical rainforest are scarce and need to be further investigated. One of the main effects of selective logging on forest dynamics seems to be the local disturbance which involve the invasion of open space by weed, vines and climbers at the expense of the late-successional state cenosis. We present a simple deterministic model that describes the dynamics of tropical rainforest subject to selective logging to understand how and why weeds displace native species. We argue that the selective removal of tallest tropical trees carries out gaps of light that allow weeds, vines and climbers to prevail on native species, inhibiting the possibility of recovery of the original vegetation. Our results show that different regime shifts may occur depending on the type of forest management adopted. This hypothesis is supported by a dataset of trees height and weed/vines cover that we collected from 9 plots located in Central and West Africa both in untouched and managed areas.

  17. Gap formation in Danish beech (Fagus sylvatica) forests of low management intensity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ritter, Eva; Vesterdal, Lars

    2006-01-01

    -based managed forest, soil solution was collected for 5 years and soil moisture measured in the fourth year after gap formation. Average NO3-N concentrations were significantly higher in the gaps (9.9 and 8.1 mg NO3-N l(-1), respectively) than under closed canopy (0.2 mg l(-1)). In the semi-natural forest......, measurements were carried out up to 29 months after gap formation. Average NO3-N concentrations in the gap were 19.3 mg NO3-N l(-1). Gap formation alone did not account for this high level, as concentrations were high also under closed canopy (average 12.4 mg NO3-N l(-1)). However, the gap had significantly...... higher N concentrations when trees were in full leaf, and NO3-N drainage losses were significantly increased in the gap. No losses occurred under closed canopy in growing seasons. Soil moisture was close to field capacity in all three gaps, but decreased under closed canopy in growing seasons...

  18. Forest Management Devolution: Gap Between Technicians' Design and Villagers' Practices in Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rives, Fanny; Carrière, Stéphanie M.; Montagne, Pierre; Aubert, Sigrid; Sibelet, Nicole

    2013-10-01

    In the 1980s, tropical forest-management principles underwent a shift toward approaches giving greater responsibilities to rural people. One argument for such a shift were the long-term relations established between rural people and their natural resources. In Madagascar, a new law was drawn up in 1996 (Gelose law), which sought to integrate rural people into forest management. A gap was observed between the changes foreseen by the projects implementing the Gelose law and the actual changes. In this article, we use the concept of the social-ecological system (SES) to analyze that gap. The differences existing between the planned changes set by the Gelose contract in the village of Ambatoloaka (northwest of Madagascar) and the practices observed in 2010 were conceptualized as a gap between two SESs. The first SES is the targeted one (i.e., a virtual one); it corresponds to the designed Gelose contract. The second SES is the observed one. It is characterized by the heterogeneity of forest users and uses, which have several impacts on forest management, and by very dynamic social and ecological systems. The observed SES has been reshaped contingent on the constraints and opportunities offered by the Gelose contract as well as on other ecological and social components. The consequences and opportunities that such an SES reshaping would offer to improve the implementation of the Gelose law are discussed. The main reasons explaining the gap between the two SESs are as follows: (1) the clash between static and homogeneous perceptions in the targeted SES and the dynamics and heterogeneity that characterize the observed SES; and (2) the focus on one specific use of forest ecosystems (i.e., charcoal-making) in the targeted SES. Forest management in the observed SES depends on several uses of forest ecosystems.

  19. Forest owner representation of forest management and perception of resource efficiency: a structural equation modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Ficko

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Underuse of nonindustrial private forests in developed countries has been interpreted mostly as a consequence of the prevailing noncommodity objectives of their owners. Recent empirical studies have indicated a correlation between the harvesting behavior of forest owners and the specific conceptualization of appropriate forest management described as "nonintervention" or "hands-off" management. We aimed to fill the huge gap in knowledge of social representations of forest management in Europe and are the first to be so rigorous in eliciting forest owner representations in Europe. We conducted 3099 telephone interviews with randomly selected forest owners in Slovenia, asking them whether they thought they managed their forest efficiently, what the possible reasons for underuse were, and what they understood by forest management. Building on social representations theory and applying a series of structural equation models, we tested the existence of three latent constructs of forest management and estimated whether and how much these constructs correlated to the perception of resource efficiency. Forest owners conceptualized forest management as a mixture of maintenance and ecosystem-centered and economics-centered management. None of the representations had a strong association with the perception of resource efficiency, nor could it be considered a factor preventing forest owners from cutting more. The underuse of wood resources was mostly because of biophysical constraints in the environment and not a deep-seated philosophical objection to harvesting. The difference between our findings and other empirical studies is primarily explained by historical differences in forestland ownership in different parts of Europe and the United States, the rising number of nonresidential owners, alternative lifestyle, and environmental protectionism, but also as a consequence of our high methodological rigor in testing the relationships between the constructs

  20. Gap-based silviculture in a sierran mixed-conifer forest: effects of gap size on early survival and 7-year seedling growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert A. York; John J. Battles; Robert C. Heald

    2007-01-01

    Experimental canopy gaps ranging in size from 0.1 to 1.0 ha (0.25 to 2.5 acres) were created in a mature mixed conifer forest at Blodgett Forest Research Station, California. Following gap creation, six species were planted in a wagon-wheel design and assessed for survival after two growing seasons. Study trees were measured after seven years to describe the effect of...

  1. Gap timing and the spectral timing model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, J W

    1999-04-01

    A hypothesized mechanism underlying gap timing was implemented in the Spectral Timing Model [Grossberg, S., Schmajuk, N., 1989. Neural dynamics of adaptive timing and temporal discrimination during associative learning. Neural Netw. 2, 79-102] , a neural network timing model. The activation of the network nodes was made to decay in the absence of the timed signal, causing the model to shift its peak response time in a fashion similar to that shown in animal subjects. The model was then able to accurately simulate a parametric study of gap timing [Cabeza de Vaca, S., Brown, B., Hemmes, N., 1994. Internal clock and memory processes in aminal timing. J. Exp. Psychol.: Anim. Behav. Process. 20 (2), 184-198]. The addition of a memory decay process appears to produce the correct pattern of results in both Scalar Expectancy Theory models and in the Spectral Timing Model, and the fact that the same process should be effective in two such disparate models argues strongly that process reflects a true aspect of animal cognition.

  2. Long-term fragmentation effects on the distribution and dynamics of canopy gaps in a tropical montane forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas R. Vaughn; Gregory P. Asner; Christian P. Giardina

    2015-01-01

    Fragmentation alters forest canopy structure through various mechanisms, which in turn drive subsequent changes to biogeochemical processes and biological diversity. Using repeated airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) mappings, we investigated the size distribution and dynamics of forest canopy gaps across a topical montane forest landscape in Hawaii naturally...

  3. Gap models and their individual-based relatives in the assessment of the consequences of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugart, Herman H.; Wang, Bin; Fischer, Rico; Ma, Jianyong; Fang, Jing; Yan, Xiaodong; Huth, Andreas; Armstrong, Amanda H.

    2018-03-01

    Individual-based models (IBMs) of complex systems emerged in the 1960s and early 1970s, across diverse disciplines from astronomy to zoology. Ecological IBMs arose with seemingly independent origins out of the tradition of understanding the ecosystems dynamics of ecosystems from a ‘bottom-up’ accounting of the interactions of the parts. Individual trees are principal among the parts of forests. Because these models are computationally demanding, they have prospered as the power of digital computers has increased exponentially over the decades following the 1970s. This review will focus on a class of forest IBMs called gap models. Gap models simulate the changes in forests by simulating the birth, growth and death of each individual tree on a small plot of land. The summation of these plots comprise a forest (or set of sample plots on a forested landscape or region). Other, more aggregated forest IBMs have been used in global applications including cohort-based models, ecosystem demography models, etc. Gap models have been used to provide the parameters for these bulk models. Currently, gap models have grown from local-scale to continental-scale and even global-scale applications to assess the potential consequences of climate change on natural forests. Modifications to the models have enabled simulation of disturbances including fire, insect outbreak and harvest. Our objective in this review is to provide the reader with an overview of the history, motivation and applications, including theoretical applications, of these models. In a time of concern over global changes, gap models are essential tools to understand forest responses to climate change, modified disturbance regimes and other change agents. Development of forest surveys to provide the starting points for simulations and better estimates of the behavior of the diversity of tree species in response to the environment are continuing needs for improvement for these and other IBMs.

  4. Exploring forest infrastructures equipment through multivariate analysis: complementarities, gaps and overlaps in the Mediterranean basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Bajocco

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The countries of the Mediterranean basin face several challenges regarding the sustainability of forest ecosystems and the delivery of crucial goods and services that they provide in a context of rapid global changes. Advancing scientific knowledge and foresting innovation is essential to ensure the sustainable management of Mediterranean forests and maximize the potential role of their unique goods and services in building a knowledge-based bioeconomy in the region. In this context, the European project FORESTERRA ("Enhancing FOrest RESearch in the MediTERRAnean through improved coordination and integration” aims at reinforcing the scientific cooperation on Mediterranean forests through an ambitious transnational framework in order to reduce the existing research fragmentation and maximize the effectiveness of forest research activities. Within the FORESTERRA project framework, this work analyzed the infrastructures equipment of the Mediterranean countries belonging to the project Consortium. According to the European Commission, research infrastructures are facilities, resources and services that are used by the scientific communities to conduct research and foster innovation. To the best of our knowledge, the equipment and availability of infrastructures, in terms of experimental sites, research facilities and databases, have only rarely been explored. The aim of this paper was hence to identify complementarities, gaps and overlaps among the different forest research institutes in order to create a scientific network, optimize the resources and trigger collaborations.

  5. Testing the Application of Terrestrial Laser Scanning to Measure Forest Canopy Gap Fraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Mark Danson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial laser scanners (TLS have the potential to revolutionise measurement of the three-dimensional structure of vegetation canopies for applications in ecology, hydrology and climate change. This potential has been the subject of recent research that has attempted to measure forest biophysical variables from TLS data, and make comparisons with two-dimensional data from hemispherical photography. This research presents a systematic comparison between forest canopy gap fraction estimates derived from TLS measurements and hemispherical photography. The TLS datasets used in the research were obtained between April 2008 and March 2009 at Delamere Forest, Cheshire, UK. The analysis of canopy gap fraction estimates derived from TLS data highlighted the repeatability and consistency of the measurements in comparison with those from coincident hemispherical photographs. The comparison also showed that estimates computed considering only the number of hits and misses registered in the TLS datasets were consistently lower than those estimated from hemispherical photographs. To examine this difference, the potential information available in the intensity values recorded by TLS was investigated and a new method developed to estimate canopy gap fraction proposed. The new approach produced gap fractions closer to those estimated from hemispherical photography, but the research also highlighted the limitations of single return TLS data for this application.

  6. Spatial scale and sampling resolution affect measures of gap disturbance in a lowland tropical forest: implications for understanding forest regeneration and carbon storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo, Elena; Dalling, James W.

    2014-01-01

    Treefall gaps play an important role in tropical forest dynamics and in determining above-ground biomass (AGB). However, our understanding of gap disturbance regimes is largely based either on surveys of forest plots that are small relative to spatial variation in gap disturbance, or on satellite imagery, which cannot accurately detect small gaps. We used high-resolution light detection and ranging data from a 1500 ha forest in Panama to: (i) determine how gap disturbance parameters are influenced by study area size, and the criteria used to define gaps; and (ii) to evaluate how accurately previous ground-based canopy height sampling can determine the size and location of gaps. We found that plot-scale disturbance parameters frequently differed significantly from those measured at the landscape-level, and that canopy height thresholds used to define gaps strongly influenced the gap-size distribution, an important metric influencing AGB. Furthermore, simulated ground surveys of canopy height frequently misrepresented the true location of gaps, which may affect conclusions about how relatively small canopy gaps affect successional processes and contribute to the maintenance of diversity. Across site comparisons need to consider how gap definition, scale and spatial resolution affect characterizations of gap disturbance, and its inferred importance for carbon storage and community composition. PMID:24452032

  7. Gap Models as Tools for Sustainable Development under Environmental Changes in Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Wang, B.; Brazhnik, K.; Armstrong, A. H.; Foster, A.

    2017-12-01

    Agent-based models of complex systems or as used in this review, Individual-based Models (IBMs), emerged in the 1960s and early 1970s, across diverse disciplines from astronomy to zoology. IBMs arose from a deeply embedded ecological tradition of understanding the dynamics of ecosystems from a "bottom-up" accounting of the interactions of the parts. In this case, individual trees are principal among the parts. Because they are computationally demanding, these models have prospered as the power of digital computers has increased exponentially over the decades following the 1970s. Forest IBMs are no longer computationally bound from developing continental- or global-scale simulations of responses of forests to climate and other changes. Gap models simulate the changes in forests by simulating the birth, growth and death of each individual tree on small plots of land that in summation comprise a forest (or set of sample plots on a forested landscape or region). Currently, gap models have grown from continental-scale and even global-scale applications to assess the potential consequences of climate change on natural forests. These predictions are valuable in the planning and anticipatory decision-making needed to sustainably manage a vast region such as Northern Eurasia. Modifications to the models have enabled simulation of disturbances including fire, insect outbreak and harvest. These disturbances have significant exogenous drivers, notably weather variables, but their effects are also a function of the endogenous conditions involving the structure of forest itself. This feedback between the forest and its environment can in some cases produce hysteresis and multiple-stable operating-regimes for forests. Such responses, often characterized as "tipping points" could play a significant role in increasing risk under environmental change, notably global warming. Such dynamics in a management context imply regional systems that could be "unforgiving" of management

  8. Gap Acceptance Behavior Model for Non-signalized

    OpenAIRE

    Fajaruddin Bin Mustakim

    2015-01-01

    The paper proposes field studies that were performed to determine the critical gap on the multiple rural roadways Malaysia, at non-signalized T-intersection by using The Raff and Logic Method. Critical gap between passenger car and motorcycle have been determined.   There are quite number of studied doing gap acceptance behavior model for passenger car however still few research on gap acceptance behavior model for motorcycle. Thus in this paper, logistic regression models were developed to p...

  9. Development of Multidimensional Gap Conductance model using Virtual Link Gap Element

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hyo Chan; Yang, Yong Sik; Kim, Dae Ho; Bang, Je Geon; Kim, Sun Ki; Koo, Yang Hyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    The gap conductance that determines temperature gradient between pellet and cladding can be quite sensitive to gap thickness. For instance, once the gap size increases up to several micrometers in certain region, difference of pellet surface temperatures increases up to 100 Kelvin. Therefore, iterative thermo-mechanical coupled analysis is required to solve temperature distribution throughout pellet and cladding. Recently, multidimensional fuel performance codes have been being developed in the advanced countries to evaluate thermal behavior of fuel for off normal conditions and DBA(design based accident) conditions using the Finite Element Method (FEM). FRAPCON-FRAPTRAN code system, which is well known as the verified and reliable code, incorporates 1D thermal module and multidimensional mechanical module. In this code, multidimensional gap conductance model is not applied. ALCYONE developed by CEA introduces equivalent heat convection coefficient that represents multidimensional gap conductance as a function of gap thickness. BISON, which is multidimensional fuel performance code developed by INL, owns multidimensional gap conductance model using projected thermal contact. In general, thermal contact algorithm is nonlinear calculation which is expensive approach numerically. The gap conductance model for multi-dimension is difficult issue in terms of convergence and nonlinearity because gap conductance is function of gap thickness which depends on mechanical analysis at each iteration step. In this paper, virtual link gap (VLG) element has been proposed to resolve convergence issue and nonlinear characteristic of multidimensional gap conductance. In terms of calculation accuracy and convergence efficiency, the proposed VLG model was evaluated. LWR fuel performance codes should incorporate thermo-mechanical loop to solve gap conductance problem, iteratively. However, gap conductance in multidimensional model is difficult issue owing to its nonlinearity and

  10. Modelling radiocesium fluxes in forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.; Kliashtorin, A.; Mamikhin, S.; Shcheglov, A.; Rafferty, B.; Dvornik, A.; Zhuchenko, T.; Kuchma, N.

    1996-01-01

    Monitoring of radiocesium inventories and fluxes has been carried out in forest ecosystems in Ukraine, Belarus and Ireland to determine distributions and rates of migration. This information has been used to construct and calibrate mathematical models which are being used to predict the likely longevity of contamination of forests and forest products such as timber following the Chernobyl accident

  11. Comparison of an empirical forest growth and yield simulator and a forest gap simulator using actual 30-year growth from two even-aged forests in Kentucky

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel A. Yaussy

    2000-01-01

    Two individual-tree growth simulators are used to predict the growth and mortality on a 30-year-old forest site and an 80-year-old forest site in eastern Kentucky. The empirical growth and yield model (NE-TWIGS) was developed to simulate short-term (

  12. An economic model of international wood supply, forest stock and forest area change

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

    2006-01-01

    Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock...

  13. [Object-oriented segmentation and classification of forest gap based on QuickBird remote sensing image.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Xue Gang; Du, Zi Han; Liu, Jia Qian; Chen, Shu Xin; Hou, Ji Yu

    2018-01-01

    Traditional field investigation and artificial interpretation could not satisfy the need of forest gaps extraction at regional scale. High spatial resolution remote sensing image provides the possibility for regional forest gaps extraction. In this study, we used object-oriented classification method to segment and classify forest gaps based on QuickBird high resolution optical remote sensing image in Jiangle National Forestry Farm of Fujian Province. In the process of object-oriented classification, 10 scales (10-100, with a step length of 10) were adopted to segment QuickBird remote sensing image; and the intersection area of reference object (RA or ) and intersection area of segmented object (RA os ) were adopted to evaluate the segmentation result at each scale. For segmentation result at each scale, 16 spectral characteristics and support vector machine classifier (SVM) were further used to classify forest gaps, non-forest gaps and others. The results showed that the optimal segmentation scale was 40 when RA or was equal to RA os . The accuracy difference between the maximum and minimum at different segmentation scales was 22%. At optimal scale, the overall classification accuracy was 88% (Kappa=0.82) based on SVM classifier. Combining high resolution remote sensing image data with object-oriented classification method could replace the traditional field investigation and artificial interpretation method to identify and classify forest gaps at regional scale.

  14. Avian response to microclimate in canopy gaps in a bottomland hardwood forest.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Champlin, Tracey B.; Kilgo, John C.; Gumpertz, Marcia L.; Moorman, Christopher E.

    2009-04-01

    Abstract - Microclimate may infl uence use of early successional habitat by birds. We assessed the relationships between avian habitat use and microclimate (temperature, light intensity, and relative humidity) in experimentally created canopy gaps in a bottomland hardwood forest on the Savannah River Site, SC. Gaps were 2- to 3-year-old group-selection timber harvest openings of three sizes (0.13, 0.26, 0.50 ha). Our study was conducted from spring through fall, encompassing four bird-use periods (spring migration, breeding, post-breeding, and fall migration), in 2002 and 2003. We used mist netting and simultaneously recorded microclimate variables to determine the influence of microclimate on bird habitat use. Microclimate was strongly affected by net location within canopy gaps in both years. Temperature generally was higher on the west side of gaps, light intensity was greater in gap centers, and relative humidity was higher on the east side of gaps. However, we found few relationships between bird captures and the microclimate variables. Bird captures were inversely correlated with temperature during the breeding and postbreeding periods in 2002 and positively correlated with temperature during spring 2003. Captures were high where humidity was high during post-breeding 2002, and captures were low where humidity was high during spring 2003. We conclude that variations in the local microclimate had minor infl uence on avian habitat use within gaps. Instead, habitat selection in relatively mild regions like the southeastern US is based primarily on vegetation structure, while other factors, including microclimate, are less important.

  15. Modeling carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

    2005-01-01

    A forest biogeochemical model, Forest-DNDC, was developed to quantify carbon sequestration in and trace gas emissions from forest ecosystems. Forest-DNDC was constructed by integrating two existing moels, PnET and DNDC, with several new features including nitrification, forest litter layer, soil freezing and thawing etc, PnET is a forest physiological model predicting...

  16. Modeling landowner behavior regarding forest certification

    Science.gov (United States)

    David C. Mercker; Donald G. Hodges

    2008-01-01

    Nonindustrial private forest owners in western Tennessee were surveyed to assess their awareness, acceptance, and perceived benefits of forest certification. More than 80 percent of the landowners indicated a willingness to consider certification for their lands. A model was created to explain landowner behavior regarding their willingness to consider certification....

  17. Modeling bidirectional reflectance of forests and woodlands using Boolean models and geometric optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahler, Alan H.; Jupp, David L. B.

    1990-01-01

    Geometric-optical discrete-element mathematical models for forest canopies have been developed using the Boolean logic and models of Serra. The geometric-optical approach is considered to be particularly well suited to describing the bidirectional reflectance of forest woodland canopies, where the concentration of leaf material within crowns and the resulting between-tree gaps make plane-parallel, radiative-transfer models inappropriate. The approach leads to invertible formulations, in which the spatial and directional variance provides the means for remote estimation of tree crown size, shape, and total cover from remotedly sensed imagery.

  18. Canopy gaps affect long-term patterns of tree growth and mortality in mature and old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew N. Gray; Thomas A. Spies; Robert J. Pabst

    2012-01-01

    Canopy gaps created by tree mortality can affect the speed and trajectory of vegetation growth. Species’ population dynamics, and spatial heterogeneity in mature forests. Most studies focus on plant development within gaps, yet gaps also affect the mortality and growth of surrounding trees, which influence shading and root encroachment into gaps and determine whether,...

  19. Soil respiration patterns in root gaps 27 years after small scale experimental disturbance in Pinus contorta forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, S.; Berryman, E.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Ewers, B. E.

    2015-12-01

    While much attention has been focused on large scale forest disturbances such as fire, harvesting, drought and insect attacks, small scale forest disturbances that create gaps in forest canopies and below ground root and mycorrhizal networks may accumulate to impact regional scale carbon budgets. In a lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forest near Fox Park, WY, clusters of 15 and 30 trees were removed in 1988 to assess the effect of tree gap disturbance on fine root density and nitrogen transformation. Twenty seven years later the gaps remain with limited regeneration present only in the center of the 30 tree plots, beyond the influence of roots from adjacent intact trees. Soil respiration was measured in the summer of 2015 to assess the influence of these disturbances on carbon cycling in Pinus contorta forests. Positions at the centers of experimental disturbances were found to have the lowest respiration rates (mean 2.45 μmol C/m2/s, standard error 0.17 C/m2/s), control plots in the undisturbed forest were highest (mean 4.15 μmol C/m2/s, standard error 0.63 C/m2/s), and positions near the margin of the disturbance were intermediate (mean 3.7 μmol C/m2/s, standard error 0.34 C/m2/s). Fine root densities, soil nitrogen, and microclimate changes were also measured and played an important role in respiration rates of disturbed plots. This demonstrates that a long-term effect on carbon cycling occurs when gaps are created in the canopy and root network of lodgepole forests.

  20. A CHF Model in Narrow Gaps under Saturated Boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Suki; Kim, Hyeonil; Park, Cheol

    2014-01-01

    Many researchers have paid a great attention to the CHF in narrow gaps due to enormous industrial applications. Especially, a great number of researches on the CHF have been carried out in relation to nuclear safety issues such as in-vessel retention for nuclear power plants during a severe accident. Analytical studies to predict the CHF in narrow gaps have been also reported. Yu et al. (2012) developed an analytical model to predict the CHF on downward facing and inclined heaters based on the model of Kandlikar et al. (2001) for an upward facing heater. A new theoretical model is developed to predict the CHF in narrow gaps under saturated pool boiling. This model is applicable when one side of coolant channels or both sides are heated including the effects of heater orientation. The present model is compared with the experimental CHF data obtained in narrow gaps. A new analytical CHF model is proposed to predict CHF for narrow gaps under saturated pool boiling. This model can be applied to one-side or two-sides heating surface and also consider the effects of heater orientation on CHF. The present model is compared with the experimental data obtained in narrow gaps with one heater. The comparisons indicate that the present model shows a good agreement with the experimental CHF data in the horizontal annular tubes. However, it generally under-predicts the experimental data in the narrow rectangular gaps except the data obtained in the gap thickness of 10 mm and the horizontal downward facing heater

  1. A model for gap conductance in nuclear fuel rods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loyalka, S.K.

    1982-01-01

    Computation of nuclear reactor fuel behavior under normal and off-normal conditions is influenced by gap conductance models. These models should provide accurate results for heat transfer for arbitrary gap widths and gas mixtures and should be based on considerations of the kinetic theory of gases. There has been considerable progress in the study of heat transfer in a simple gas for arbitrary Knudsen numbers (Kn = l/similar to d, where l is a meanfree-path and similar d is the gap width) in recent years. Using these recent results, a simple expression for heat transfer in a gas mixture (enclosed between parallel plates) for an arbitrary Knudsen number has been constructed, and a new model for gap conductance has been proposed. The latter reproduces the free molecular (small gap, Kn >> 1) and the jump limits (large gaps, Kn << 1) correctly, and it provides fairly accurate results for arbitrary gap widths. The new model is suitable for use in large fuel behavior computer programs

  2. Modeling pedestrian gap crossing index under mixed traffic condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naser, Mohamed M; Zulkiple, Adnan; Al Bargi, Walid A; Khalifa, Nasradeen A; Daniel, Basil David

    2017-12-01

    There are a variety of challenges faced by pedestrians when they walk along and attempt to cross a road, as the most recorded accidents occur during this time. Pedestrians of all types, including both sexes with numerous aging groups, are always subjected to risk and are characterized as the most exposed road users. The increased demand for better traffic management strategies to reduce the risks at intersections, improve quality traffic management, traffic volume, and longer cycle time has further increased concerns over the past decade. This paper aims to develop a sustainable pedestrian gap crossing index model based on traffic flow density. It focusses on the gaps accepted by pedestrians and their decision for street crossing, where (Log-Gap) logarithm of accepted gaps was used to optimize the result of a model for gap crossing behavior. Through a review of extant literature, 15 influential variables were extracted for further empirical analysis. Subsequently, data from the observation at an uncontrolled mid-block in Jalan Ampang in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia was gathered and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Binary Logit Model (BLM) techniques were employed to analyze the results. From the results, different pedestrian behavioral characteristics were considered for a minimum gap size model, out of which only a few (four) variables could explain the pedestrian road crossing behavior while the remaining variables have an insignificant effect. Among the different variables, age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and crossing were the most influential variables. The study concludes that pedestrians' decision to cross the street depends on the pedestrian age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and size of traffic gap before crossing. The inferences from these models will be useful to increase pedestrian safety and performance evaluation of uncontrolled midblock road crossings in developing countries. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Towards Finite-Gap Integration of the Inozemtsev Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kouichi Takemura

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The Inozemtsev model is considered to be a multivaluable generalization of Heun's equation. We review results on Heun's equation, the elliptic Calogero-Moser-Sutherland model and the Inozemtsev model, and discuss some approaches to the finite-gap integration for multivariable models.

  4. Gap formation and carbon cycling in the Brazilian Amazon: measurement using high-resolution optical remote sensing and studies in large forest plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. D. B. Espirito-Santo; M. M. Keller; E. Linder; R. C. Oliveira Junior; C. Pereira; C. G. Oliveira

    2013-01-01

    Background: The dynamics of gaps plays a role in the regimes of tree mortality, production of coarse woody debris (CWD) and the variability of light in the forest understory. Aims: To quantify the area affected by, and the carbon fluxes associated with, natural gap-phase disturbances in a tropical lowland evergreen rain forest by use of ground measurements and high-...

  5. Diameter Growth of Juvenile Trees after Gap Formation in a Bolivian Rain Forest: Responses are Strongly Species-specific and Size-dependent.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliz-Gamboa, C.C.; Sandbrink, A.; Zuidema, P.A.

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated growth responses to gap formation for juvenile individuals of three canopy rain forest species: Peltogyne cf. heterophylla, Clarisia racemosa and Cedrelinga catenaeformis. Gaps were formed during selective logging operations 7 yr before sampling in a Bolivian rain forest. We collected

  6. Bone compaction enhances implant fixation in a canine gap model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kold, Søren; Rahbek, Ole; Toft, Marianne

    2005-01-01

    A new bone preparation technique, compaction, has increased fixation of implants inserted with exact-fit or press-fit to bone. Furthermore, a demonstrated spring-back effect of compacted bone might be of potential value in reducing the initial gaps that often exist between clinical inserted...... implants and bone. However, it is unknown whether the compression and breakage of trabeculae during the compaction procedure results in impaired gap-healing of compacted bone. Therefore, we compared compaction with conventional drilling in a canine gap model. Grit-blasted titanium implants (diameter 6 mm...... that the beneficial effect of reduced gap size, as compacted bone springs back, is not eliminated by an impaired gap-healing of compacted bone....

  7. Sapling growth and crown expansion in canopy gaps of Nothofagus pumilio (lenga) forests in Chubut, Patagonia, Argentina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez Bernal, P. M.; Defosse, G. E.; Quinteros, C. P.; Bava, J. O.

    2012-07-01

    In the province of Chubut in Patagonia, Argentina, Nothofagus pumilio forests (locally known as lenga), are managed through selective cuts, which imply the opening of canopy gaps. This management scheme is carried out without taking into consideration the changes of sapling requirements through either a cutting cycle or the precipitation gradient in which these forests thrive. To analyze these changes, we inferred the facilitation-competition balance between the canopy and regeneration, studying the effects of precipitation levels, gap size and gap age on saplings growth in height on 45 canopy gaps artificially created between 1960 and 1993. Results showed that during the first 20 years since gap opening, growth of regeneration is determined by light availability in mesic sites and by water availability in xeric sites. However, differences due to precipitation levels gradually decrease over time. Moreover, in the period between 20 and 35 years after gap opening, in both mesic and xeric sites, growth is limited by light availability. This indicates that in xeric sites, sapling growth requirements shift from a water-dependent situation to a light-dependent situation. The average closing rate of gaps due to lateral growth of bordering trees is high enough so that within the proposed gap size range, gap healing can occur before regeneration reaches the upper stratum. Consequently, in mesic sites gap opening can be done by a single operation that generates gaps with diameters of approximately twice the average height of the canopy (D/H). While in xeric environments, lenga seedling establishment and initial growth require the cover of small gaps, but advanced regeneration requires bigger gaps to reach the canopy. For this reason, gaps should be opened in two stages: the first gaps should be opened with a D/H between 0.8 and 1, and after a cutting cycle of 35 years, these openings should be enlarged to a D/H between 1.5 and 2. The close relationship maintained between the

  8. Constrained convex minimization via model-based excessive gap

    OpenAIRE

    Tran Dinh, Quoc; Cevher, Volkan

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a model-based excessive gap technique to analyze first-order primal- dual methods for constrained convex minimization. As a result, we construct new primal-dual methods with optimal convergence rates on the objective residual and the primal feasibility gap of their iterates separately. Through a dual smoothing and prox-function selection strategy, our framework subsumes the augmented Lagrangian, and alternating methods as special cases, where our rates apply.

  9. Seed germination responses in a temperate rain forest of Chiloé, Chile: effects of a gap and the tree canopy

    OpenAIRE

    Figueroa, Javier A; Hernández, Juan F

    2001-01-01

    This study determined germination responses of 19 species, including trees, shrubs, vines, and herbs, under natural gap and non-gap conditions, in a secondary forest in Chiloé Island, southern Chile, in order to assess if there is any association between the habitat where the seedlings of these plant species occur and their germination requirements. Statistical differences in percentage seed germination were detected in six species in a gap habitat compared to the understory. Five forest edge...

  10. Modeling directional thermal radiance from a forest canopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGuire, M.J.; Balick, L.K.; Smith, J.A.; Hutchison, B.A.

    1989-01-01

    Recent advances in remote sensing technology have increased interest in utilizing the thermal-infared region to gain additional information about surface features such as vegetation canopies. Studies have shown that sensor view angle, canopy structure, and percentage of canopy coverage can affect the response of a thermal sensor. These studies have been primarily of agricultural regions and there have been relatively few examples describing the thermal characteristics of forested regions. This paper describes an extension of an existing thermal vegetation canopy radiance model which has been modified to partially account for the geometrically rough structure of a forest canopy. Fourier series expansion of a canopy height profile is used to calculate improved view factors which partially account for the directional variations in canopy thermal radiance transfers. The original and updated radiance model predictions are compared with experimental data obtained over a deciduous (oak-hickory) forest site. The experimental observations are also used to document azimuthal and nadir directional radiance variations. Maximum angular variations in measured canopy temperatures were 4–6°C (azimuth) and 2.5°C (nadir). Maximum angular variations in simulated temperatures using the modified rough surface model was 4°C. The rough surface model appeared to be sensitive to large gaps in the canopy height profile, which influenced the resultant predicted temperature. (author)

  11. Spatial distance in a technology gap model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verspagen, B.; Caniëls, M.C.J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper analyses the effect of locally bounded knowledge spillovers on regional differences in growth. A model will be developed that allows spillovers to take place across regions. Certain conditions determine the amount of spillovers a region receives. By use of simulations (with randomised

  12. Applying revised gap analysis model in measuring hotel service quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yu-Cheng; Wang, Yu-Che; Chien, Chih-Hung; Wu, Chia-Huei; Lu, Shu-Chiung; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Dong, Weiwei

    2016-01-01

    With the number of tourists coming to Taiwan growing by 10-20 % since 2010, the number has increased due to an increasing number of foreign tourists, particularly after deregulation allowed admitting tourist groups, followed later on by foreign individual tourists, from mainland China. The purpose of this study is to propose a revised gap model to evaluate and improve service quality in Taiwanese hotel industry. Thus, service quality could be clearly measured through gap analysis, which was more effective for offering direction in developing and improving service quality. The HOLSERV instrument was used to identify and analyze service gaps from the perceptions of internal and external customers. The sample for this study included three main categories of respondents: tourists, employees, and managers. The results show that five gaps influenced tourists' evaluations of service quality. In particular, the study revealed that Gap 1 (management perceptions vs. customer expectations) and Gap 9 (service provider perceptions of management perceptions vs. service delivery) were more critical than the others in affecting perceived service quality, making service delivery the main area of improvement. This study contributes toward an evaluation of the service quality of the Taiwanese hotel industry from the perspectives of customers, service providers, and managers, which is considerably valuable for hotel managers. It was the aim of this study to explore all of these together in order to better understand the possible gaps in the hotel industry in Taiwan.

  13. Effect of gap size on seedling establishment, growth and survival at three years in mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans F. Muell.) forest in Victoria, Australia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van der P.J.; Dignan, P.; Saveneh, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    Establishment, growth and survival of Eucalyptus regnans F. Muell. seedlings was studied at two sites over three years under a range of small gaps (up to 30mx30m) and large gaps (50mx50m up to clearfells) in a gap cutting experiment in mountain ash forest at Tanjil Bren, Victoria, Australia. In both

  14. Evaluating the sensitivity of Eurasian forest biomass to climate change using a dynamic vegetation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, J K; Shugart, H H

    2009-01-01

    Climate warming could strongly influence the structure and composition of the Eurasian boreal forest. Temperature related changes have occurred, including shifts in treelines and changes in regeneration. Dynamic vegetation models are well suited to the further exploration of the impacts that climate change may have on boreal forests. Using the individual-based gap model FAREAST, forest composition and biomass are simulated at over 2000 sites across Eurasia. Biomass output is compared to detailed forest data from a representative sample of Russian forests and a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact that elevated temperatures and modified precipitation will have on forest biomass and composition in Eurasia. Correlations between model and forest inventory biomass are strong for several boreal tree species. A significant relationship is shown between altered precipitation and biomass. This analysis showed that a modest increase in temperature of 2 deg. C across 200 years had no significant effect on biomass; however further exploration with increased warming reflective of values measured within Siberia, or at an increased rate, are warranted. Overall, FAREAST accurately simulates forest biomass and composition at sites throughout a large geographic area with widely varying climatic conditions and produces reasonable biomass responses to simulated climatic shifts. These results indicate that this model is robust and useful in making predictions regarding the effect of future climate change on boreal forest structure across Eurasia.

  15. Technical change in forest sector models: the global forest products model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno; Sushuai Zhu

    2015-01-01

    Technical change is developing rapidly in some parts of the forest sector, especially in the pulp and paper industry where wood fiber is being substituted by waste paper. In forest sector models, the processing of wood and other input into products is frequently represented by activity analysis (input–output). In this context, technical change translates in changes...

  16. URGAP: A gap conductance model for transient conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassmann, K.; Pazdera, F.

    1983-01-01

    A gap conductance model, URGAP, has been developed with contributions from solid, fluid and radiation heat transfer components. Model parameters are easily available, independent of different combinations of material surfaces. The model parameters were fitted to 388 data points under reactor conditions. For model verification, another 274 data points of steel-steel and aluminium-aluminium interfaces, respectively, were used. For minor surface roughnesses normally prevailing in reactor fuel elements the model asymptotically yields Ross' and Stoute's model for the open gap, which is thus confirmed. Materials data were carefully checked over a wide range of temperatures. Special attention was paid to the contact term for high temperatures. Thus, the model can be applied to transients. The URGAP model is being used successfully in several codes (e.g. URANUS, SSYST). (author)

  17. Measuring and modelling forest transpiration

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šír, Miloslav; Čermák, J.; Naděždina, N.; Pražák, Josef; Tesař, Miroslav

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 4, - (2008), č. 012050 ISSN 1755-1315. [Conference of the Danubian Countries on the Hydrological Forecasting and Hydrological Bases of Water Management /24./. Bled, 02.06.2008-04.06.2008] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/06/0375; GA ČR GA205/08/1174; GA ČR GA526/08/1016; GA MŠk MEB0808114; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07; GA AV ČR 1QS200420562 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510; CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : plant transpiration * SAP flow * floodplain forest Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology

  18. Gap probability - Measurements and models of a pecan orchard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahler, Alan H.; Li, Xiaowen; Moody, Aaron; Liu, YI

    1992-01-01

    Measurements and models are compared for gap probability in a pecan orchard. Measurements are based on panoramic photographs of 50* by 135 view angle made under the canopy looking upwards at regular positions along transects between orchard trees. The gap probability model is driven by geometric parameters at two levels-crown and leaf. Crown level parameters include the shape of the crown envelope and spacing of crowns; leaf level parameters include leaf size and shape, leaf area index, and leaf angle, all as functions of canopy position.

  19. Ecological modeling for forest management in the Shawnee National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard G. Thurau; J.F. Fralish; S. Hupe; B. Fitch; A.D. Carver

    2008-01-01

    Land managers of the Shawnee National Forest in southern Illinois are challenged to meet the needs of a diverse populace of stakeholders. By classifying National Forest holdings into management units, U.S. Forest Service personnel can spatially allocate resources and services to meet local management objectives. Ecological Classification Systems predict ecological site...

  20. Acting Locally: A Guide to Model, Community and Demonstration Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, Debbie Pella

    1993-01-01

    Describes Canada's efforts in sustainable forestry, which refers to management practices that ensure long-term health of forest ecosystems so that they can continue to provide environmental, social, and economic benefits. Describes model forests, community forests, and demonstration forests and lists contacts for each of the projects. (KS)

  1. Optimizing a gap conductance model applicable to VVER-1000 thermal–hydraulic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahgoshay, M.; Hashemi-Tilehnoee, M.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Two known conductance models for application in VVER-1000 thermal–hydraulic code are examined. ► An optimized gap conductance model is developed which can predict the gap conductance in good agreement with FSAR data. ► The licensed thermal–hydraulic code is coupled with the gap conductance model predictor externally. -- Abstract: The modeling of gap conductance for application in VVER-1000 thermal–hydraulic codes is addressed. Two known models, namely CALZA-BINI and RELAP5 gap conductance models, are examined. By externally linking of gap conductance models and COBRA-EN thermal hydraulic code, the acceptable range of each model is specified. The result of each gap conductance model versus linear heat rate has been compared with FSAR data. A linear heat rate of about 9 kW/m is the boundary for optimization process. Since each gap conductance model has its advantages and limitation, the optimized gap conductance model can predict the gap conductance better than each of the two other models individually.

  2. Research gap analysis for application of biotechnology to sustaining US forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.W. Whetten; R. Kellison

    2010-01-01

    The expanding human population of the world is placing greater demand on forest resources, both natural forests and plantations. Both types of forests are being adversely affected in North America as well as in other parts of the world, due to the globalization of trade and to climate change and associated changes in pest and disease incidence. Biotechnology may help...

  3. Modeling long-term changes in forested landscapes and their relation to the Earth's energy balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugart, H. H.; Emanuel, W. R.; Solomon, A. M.

    1984-01-01

    The dynamics of the forested parts of the Earth's surface on time scales from decades to centuries are discussed. A set of computer models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and elsewhere are applied as tools. These models simulate a landscape by duplicating the dynamics of growth, death and birth of each tree living on a 0.10 ha element of the landscape. This spatial unit is generally referred to as a gap in the case of the forest models. The models were tested against and applied to a diverse array of forests and appear to provide a reasonable representation for investigating forest-cover dynamics. Because of the climate linkage, one important test is the reconstruction of paleo-landscapes. Detailed reconstructions of changes in vegetation in response to changes in climate are crucial to understanding the association of the Earth's vegetation and climate and the response of the vegetation to climate change.

  4. Sequence-based model of gap gene regulatory network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Konstantin; Gursky, Vitaly; Kulakovskiy, Ivan; Samsonova, Maria

    2014-01-01

    The detailed analysis of transcriptional regulation is crucially important for understanding biological processes. The gap gene network in Drosophila attracts large interest among researches studying mechanisms of transcriptional regulation. It implements the most upstream regulatory layer of the segmentation gene network. The knowledge of molecular mechanisms involved in gap gene regulation is far less complete than that of genetics of the system. Mathematical modeling goes beyond insights gained by genetics and molecular approaches. It allows us to reconstruct wild-type gene expression patterns in silico, infer underlying regulatory mechanism and prove its sufficiency. We developed a new model that provides a dynamical description of gap gene regulatory systems, using detailed DNA-based information, as well as spatial transcription factor concentration data at varying time points. We showed that this model correctly reproduces gap gene expression patterns in wild type embryos and is able to predict gap expression patterns in Kr mutants and four reporter constructs. We used four-fold cross validation test and fitting to random dataset to validate the model and proof its sufficiency in data description. The identifiability analysis showed that most model parameters are well identifiable. We reconstructed the gap gene network topology and studied the impact of individual transcription factor binding sites on the model output. We measured this impact by calculating the site regulatory weight as a normalized difference between the residual sum of squares error for the set of all annotated sites and for the set with the site of interest excluded. The reconstructed topology of the gap gene network is in agreement with previous modeling results and data from literature. We showed that 1) the regulatory weights of transcription factor binding sites show very weak correlation with their PWM score; 2) sites with low regulatory weight are important for the model output; 3

  5. Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2014-01-01

    they breakdown costs. This is followed by an in depth analysis of stakeholders’ needs for financial information derived from the 4C project stakeholder consultation.The stakeholders’ needs analysis indicated that models should:• support accounting, but more importantly they should enable budgeting• be able......his report ’D3.1—Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis’ provides an analysis of existing research related to the economics of digital curation and cost & benefit modelling. It reports upon the investigation of how well current models and tools meet stakeholders’ needs for calculating...... andcomparing financial information. Based on this evaluation, it aims to point out gaps that need to be bridged in order to increase the uptake of cost & benefit modelling and good practices that will enable costing and comparison of the costs of alternative scenarios—which in turn provides a starting point...

  6. On the problem of model reduction in the gap metric

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutsaers, M.E.C.; Weiland, S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with the model reduction problem where, for a given linear time-invariant dynamical system of complexity n, a simpler system of complexity r gap between their respective behaviors is minimized. We describe dynamical systems as closed, shift invariant

  7. Exploring component-based approaches in forest landscape modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. S. He; D. R. Larsen; D. J. Mladenoff

    2002-01-01

    Forest management issues are increasingly required to be addressed in a spatial context, which has led to the development of spatially explicit forest landscape models. The numerous processes, complex spatial interactions, and diverse applications in spatial modeling make the development of forest landscape models difficult for any single research group. New...

  8. Gap junction modulation by extracellular signaling molecules: the thymus model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alves L.A.

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Gap junctions are intercellular channels which connect adjacent cells and allow direct exchange of molecules of low molecular weight between them. Such a communication has been described as fundamental in many systems due to its importance in coordination, proliferation and differentiation. Recently, it has been shown that gap junctional intercellular communication (GJIC can be modulated by several extracellular soluble factors such as classical hormones, neurotransmitters, interleukins, growth factors and some paracrine substances. Herein, we discuss some aspects of the general modulation of GJIC by extracellular messenger molecules and more particularly the regulation of such communication in the thymus gland. Additionally, we discuss recent data concerning the study of different neuropeptides and hormones in the modulation of GJIC in thymic epithelial cells. We also suggest that the thymus may be viewed as a model to study the modulation of gap junction communication by different extracellular messengers involved in non-classical circuits, since this organ is under bidirectional neuroimmunoendocrine control.

  9. Pairing gaps from nuclear mean-field models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bender, M.; Rutz, K.; Maruhn, J.A.

    2000-01-01

    We discuss the pairing gap, a measure for nuclear pairing correlations, in chains of spherical, semi-magic nuclei in the framework of self-consistent nuclear mean-field models. The equations for the conventional BCS model and the approximate projection-before-variation Lipkin-Nogami method are formulated in terms of local density functionals for the effective interaction. We calculate the Lipkin-Nogami corrections of both the mean-field energy and the pairing energy. Various definitions of the pairing gap are discussed as three-point, four-point and five-point mass-difference formulae, averaged matrix elements of the pairing potential, and single-quasiparticle energies. Experimental values for the pairing gap are compared with calculations employing both a delta pairing force and a density-dependent delta interaction in the BCS and Lipkin-Nogami model. Odd-mass nuclei are calculated in the spherical blocking approximation which neglects part of the the core polarization in the odd nucleus. We find that the five-point mass difference formula gives a very robust description of the odd-even staggering, other approximations for the gap may differ from that up to 30% for certain nuclei. (orig.)

  10. The influence of gap size on plant species diversity and composition in beech (Fagus orientalis forests, Ramsar, Mazandaran Province, North of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARZIEH BEGYOM-FAGHIR

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Pourbabaei H, Haddadi-Moghaddam H, Begyom-Faghir M, Abedi T. 2013. The influence of gap size on plant species diversity and composition in beech (Fagus orientalis forests, Ramsar, Mazandaran Province, North of Iran. Biodiversitas 14: 89-94.This study was conducted to investigate the influence of gap size on plant species diversity and composition in beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky. forests, Ramsar, Mazandaran province. Fifteen gaps in small, medium, and large sizes were randomly selected. Abundance of tree saplings, shrubs and herbaceous species were counted on 4 m2 micro-plots within the gaps. Diversity indices including Shannon-Wiener, Simpson, Mc Arthur's N1, Hill's N2, species richness and Smith-Wilson’s evenness index were computed. The results revealed that there was significant difference among three gap categories in terms of diversity. The highest diversity values of tree and herbaceous species were obtained in the large gaps, while the highest diversity value of shrub species was in the medium gaps. Species composition of small gaps (28 species: 7 trees and 21 herbaceous, medium gaps (37 species: 7 trees, 5 shrubs and 25 herbaceous and large gaps (40 species: 7 trees, 4 shrubs and 29 herbaceous were recognized. Therefore, based on the results of this study, it is recommended that in order to maintain plant diversity and composition up to 400 m2 gap size cloud be used in this forests.

  11. Study of gap conductance model for thermo mechanical fully coupled finite element model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyo Cha; Yang, Yong Sik; Kim, Dae Ho; Bang, Je Geon; Kim, Sun Ki; Koo, Yang Hyun

    2012-01-01

    A light water reactor (LWR) fuel rod consists of zirconium alloy cladding and uranium dioxide pellets, with a slight gap between them. Therefore, the mechanical integrity of zirconium alloy cladding is the most critical issue, as it is an important barrier for fission products released into the environment. To evaluate the stress and strain of the cladding during operation, fuel performance codes with a one-dimensional (1D) approach have been reported since the 1970s. However, it is difficult for a 1D model to simulate the stress and strain of the cladding accurately owing to a lack of degree of freedom. A LWR fuel performance code should include thermo-mechanical coupled model owing to the existence of the fuel-cladding gap. Generally, the gap that is filled with helium gas results in temperature drop along radius direction. The gap conductance that determines temperature gradient within the gap is very sensitive to gap thickness. For instance, once the gap size increases up to several microns in certain region, difference of surface temperatures increases up to 100 Kelvin. Therefore, iterative thermo-mechanical coupled analysis is required to solve temperature distribution throughout pellet and cladding. Consequently, the Finite Element (FE) module, which can simulate a higher degree of freedom numerically, is an indispensable requirement to understand the thermomechanical behavior of cladding. FRAPCON-3, which is reliable performance code, has iterative loop for thermo-mechanical coupled calculation to solve 1D gap conductance model. In FEMAXI-III, 1D thermal analysis module and FE module for stress-strain analysis were separated. 1D thermal module includes iterative analysis between them. DIONISIO code focused on thermal contact model as function of surface roughness and contact pressure when the gap is closed. In previous works, gap conductance model has been developed only for 1D model or hybrid model (1D and FE). To simulate temperature, stress and strain

  12. Development of heat transfer models for gap cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kohriyama, Tamio; Murase, Michio; Tamaki, Tomohiko [Institute of Nuclear Safety System Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan)

    2001-09-01

    In a severe accident of a light water reactor (LWR), heat transfer models in a narrow annular gap between superheated core debris and a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) are important to evaluate the integrity of RPV and emergency procedures. This paper discusses the effects of superheat on the heat flux based on existing data. In low superheat conditions, the heat flux in the narrow gap is higher than the heat flux in pool nucleate boiling due to restricted flow area. It approaches the nucleate boiling heat flux as superheat increasing and reaches a critical value subject to the counter-current flow limiting (CCFL) at the top end of the gap. A heat transfer correlation was derived as a function of dimensionless superheat and a Kutateladze-type CCFL correlation was deduced for critical heat flux (CHF) restricted by CCFL, which gave good prediction for a wide range of the CHF data. Effect of an angle of inclination of the gap could also be incorporated in the CCFL correlation. In high superheat conditions, the heat flux in the narrow gap maintains a similar shape to the pool boiling curve but shifts the position to a higher superheated side than the pool boiling except film boiling, which could be expressed by the typical pool film boiling correlation. Incorporating quench test data, the heat flux correlation was derived as a function of dimensionless superheat using the same formula for the low superheat and the Kutateladze-type CCFL correlation was deduced for CHF. The CHF at the high superheat was 3-4 times as large as CHF at the low superheat and this difference was well predicted by different flow patterns in the gap and the balance of pressure gradients between gas and liquid phases. (author)

  13. MVP: A Simple and Effective Model to Simulate the Mean and Variation of Photosynthetically Active Radiation Under Discrete Forest Canopies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, C.; Band, L. E.

    2003-12-01

    The spatial patterns of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) under forest canopies, including both its mean and spatial variation, are critical factors that determine numerous ecophysiological processes in plant ecosystems. Though numerous models have been developed that can accurately simulate PAR transmission through plant canopies, Beer's law remains the primary model used in ecological models to describe PAR transmission through plant canopies due to the fact that the more accurate models are too complicated to be used operationally. This study developed a simple and computationally efficient model to simulate both the Mean and Variation of PAR (MVP) under the forest canopy. The model provides a careful description of the effects of gaps on the variable light environment under forest canopy, while it simplifies the simulation of multiple scattering of photons. The model assumes that a forest canopy is composed of individual crowns distributed within upper and lower boundaries with two types of gaps: the between- and within-crown gaps. The inputs to the model are canopy structural parameters, including canopy depth, tree count density, tree crown shape, and foliage area volume density (m2/m3, leaf areas per unit crown volume). The between-crown gaps are simulated with geometric optics, and the within-crown gaps are described by Beer's law. The model accounts for the covariance of PAR in space through time, making it possible to simulate both instantaneous variation of PAR and variation of daily accumulated PAR. Validation with observed PAR using ten quantum sensors under the Old Black Spruce stand at the Southern Study Area of the BOREAS project indicates the model captures the mean and variation of PAR under forest canopy reasonably well. The model is simple enough that it can be used by other ecological models, such as ecosystem dynamics and carbon budget models. Further validation and testing of the model with other types forest are needed in the future.

  14. Mechanics of Fluid-Filled Interstitial Gaps. I. Modeling Gaps in a Compact Tissue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parent, Serge E; Barua, Debanjan; Winklbauer, Rudolf

    2017-08-22

    Fluid-filled interstitial gaps are a common feature of compact tissues held together by cell-cell adhesion. Although such gaps can in principle be the result of weak, incomplete cell attachment, adhesion is usually too strong for this to occur. Using a mechanical model of tissue cohesion, we show that, instead, a combination of local prevention of cell adhesion at three-cell junctions by fluidlike extracellular material and a reduction of cortical tension at the gap surface are sufficient to generate stable gaps. The size and shape of these interstitial gaps depends on the mechanical tensions between cells and at gap surfaces, and on the difference between intracellular and interstitial pressures that is related to the volume of the interstitial fluid. As a consequence of the dependence on tension/tension ratios, the presence of gaps does not depend on the absolute strength of cell adhesion, and similar gaps are predicted to occur in tissues of widely differing cohesion. Tissue mechanical parameters can also vary within and between cells of a given tissue, generating asymmetrical gaps. Within limits, these can be approximated by symmetrical gaps. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Recruitment of lianas into logging gaps and the effects of pre-harvest climber cutting in a lowland forest in Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schnitzer, S.A.; Parren, M.P.E.; Bongers, F.J.J.M.

    2004-01-01

    The abundance of lianas (woody vines) and the detrimental impact that they have on tropical rain forest trees is widely recognized. Lianas are particularly abundant in disturbed areas of the forest, such as logging gaps, and pre-harvest liana cutting has been widely recommended throughout the

  16. Validation of heat transfer models for gap cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okano, Yukimitsu; Nagae, Takashi; Murase, Michio

    2004-01-01

    For severe accident assessment of a light water reactor, models of heat transfer in a narrow annular gap between overheated core debris and a reactor pressure vessel are important for evaluating vessel integrity and accident management. The authors developed and improved the models of heat transfer. However, validation was not sufficient for applicability of the gap heat flux correlation to the debris cooling in the vessel lower head and applicability of the local boiling heat flux correlations to the high-pressure conditions. Therefore, in this paper, we evaluated the validity of the heat transfer models and correlations by analyses for ALPHA and LAVA experiments where molten aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) at about 2700 K was poured into the high pressure water pool in a small-scale simulated vessel lower head. In the heating process of the vessel wall, the calculated heating rate and peak temperature agreed well with the measured values, and the validity of the heat transfer models and gap heat flux correlation was confirmed. In the cooling process of the vessel wall, the calculated cooling rate was compared with the measured value, and the validity of the nucleate boiling heat flux correlation was confirmed. The peak temperatures of the vessel wall in ALPHA and LAVA experiments were lower than the temperature at the minimum heat flux point between film boiling and transition boiling, so the minimum heat flux correlation could not be validated. (author)

  17. Modeling of the Inductance of a Blumlein Circuit Spark Gap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aboites, V; Rendón, L; Hernández, A I; Valdés, E

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present an analysis of the time-varying inductance in the spark gap of a Blumlein circuit. We assume several mathematical expressions to describe the inductance and compare theoretical and computational calculations with experimental results. The time-varying inductance is approximated by a constant, a straight line and two parables which differ in their concavity. This is the first time to our knowledge, in which the time-varying ignition inductance of a nitrogen laser is modeled

  18. Pulsar Polar Cap and Slot Gap Models: Confronting Fermi Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harding, Alice K.

    2012-01-01

    Rotation-powered pulsars are excellent laboratories for studying particle acceleration as well as fundamental physics of strong gravity, strong magnetic fields and relativity. I will review acceleration and gamma-ray emission from the pulsar polar cap and slot gap. Predictions of these models can be tested with the data set on pulsars collected by the Large Area Telescope on the Fermi Gamma-Ray Telescope over the last four years, using both detailed light curve fitting and population synthesis.

  19. Dynamics of soil organic matter in primary and secondary forest succession on sandy soils in The Netherlands: An application of the ROMUL model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nadporozhskaya, M.A.; Mohren, G.M.J.; Chertov, O.G.; Komarov, A.S.; Mikhailov, A.V.

    2006-01-01

    We applied the simulation model ROMUL of soil organic matter dynamics in order to analyse and predict forest soil organic matter (SOM) changes following stand growth and also to identify gaps of data and modelling problems. SOM build-up was analysed (a) from bare sand to forest soil during a primary

  20. Supply chain modeling of forest fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunnarsson, Helene; Lundgren, Jan T.; Roennqvist, Mikael

    2001-04-01

    We study the problem of deciding when and where forest residues are to be converted into forest fuel, and how the residues are to be transported and stored in order to satisfy demand at heating plants. Decisions also include whether or not additional harvest areas and saw-mills are to be contracted. In addition, we consider the flow of products from saw-mills and import harbors, and address the question about which terminals to use. The planning horizon is one year and monthly time periods are considered. The supply chain problem is formulated as a large mixed integer linear programming model. In order to obtain solutions within reasonable time we have developed a heuristic solution approach. Computational results from a large Swedish supplying entrepreneur are reported.

  1. Supply chain modeling of forest fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunnarsson, Helene; Lundgren, Jan T.; Roennqvist, Mikael

    2001-04-01

    We study the problem of deciding when and where forest residues are to be converted into forest fuel, and how the residues are to be transported and stored in order to satisfy demand at heating plants. Decisions also include whether or not additional harvest areas and saw-mills are to be contracted. In addition, we consider the flow of products from saw-mills and import harbors, and address the question about which terminals to use. The planning horizon is one year and monthly time periods are considered. The supply chain problem is formulated as a large mixed integer linear programming model. In order to obtain solutions within reasonable time we have developed a heuristic solution approach. Computational results from a large Swedish supplying entrepreneur are reported

  2. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-11-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  3. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-01-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  4. Potential of forest management to reduce French carbon emissions - regional modelling of the French forest carbon balance from the forest to the wood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Luyssaert, S.; Bellassen, V.; Vallet, P.

    2015-12-01

    In France the low levels of forest harvest (40 Mm3 per year over a volume increment of 89Mm3) is frequently cited to push for a more intensive management of the forest that would help reducing CO2 emissions. This reasoning overlooks the medium-to-long-term effects on the carbon uptake at the national scale that result from changes in the forest's structure and delayed emissions from products decay and bioenergy burning, both determinant for the overall C fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. To address the impacts of an increase in harvest removal on biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes at national scale, we build a consistent regional modeling framework to integrate the forest-carbon system from photosynthesis to wood uses. We aim at bridging the gap between regional ecosystem modeling and land managers' considerations, to assess the synergistic and antagonistic effects of management strategies over C-based forest services: C-sequestration, energy and material provision, fossil fuel substitution. For this, we built on inventory data to develop a spatial forest growth simulator and design a novel method for diagnosing the current level of management based on stand characteristics (density, quadratic mean diameter or exploitability). The growth and harvest simulated are then processed with a life cycle analysis to account for wood transformation and uses. Three scenarii describe increases in biomass removals either driven by energy production target (set based on national prospective with a lock on minimum harvest diameters) or by changes in management practices (shorter or longer rotations, management of currently unmanaged forests) to be compared with business as usual simulations. Our management levels' diagnostics quantifies undermanagement at national scale and evidences the large weight of ownership-based undermanagement with an average of 26% of the national forest (between 10% and 40% per species) and thus represents a huge potential wood resource

  5. Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

    2014-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

  6. The Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) model: quantifying urban forest structure and functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Daniel E. Crane

    2000-01-01

    The Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) computer model was developed to help managers and researchers quantify urban forest structure and functions. The model quantifies species composition and diversity, diameter distribution, tree density and health, leaf area, leaf biomass, and other structural characteristics; hourly volatile organic compound emissions (emissions that...

  7. Numerical modeling of the airflow around a forest edge using LiDAR-derived forest heigths

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boudreault, Louis-Etienne; Dellwik, Ebba; Bechmann, Andreas

    A 3D methodology to quantify the effect of forests on the mean wind flow field is presented. The methodology is based on the treatment of forest raw data of light detection and ranging (LiDAR) scans, and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method based on a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (Ra......NS) approach using the k−e turbulence model with a corresponding canopy model. The example site investigated is a forest edge located on the Falster island in Denmark, where a measurement campaign was conducted. The LiDAR scans are used in order to obtain the forest heights, which served as input...

  8. The exact mass-gaps of the principal chiral models

    CERN Document Server

    Hollowood, Timothy J

    1994-01-01

    An exact expression for the mass-gap, the ratio of the physical particle mass to the $\\Lambda$-parameter, is found for the principal chiral sigma models associated to all the classical Lie algebras. The calculation is based on a comparison of the free-energy in the presence of a source coupling to a conserved charge of the theory computed in two ways: via the thermodynamic Bethe Ansatz from the exact scattering matrix and directly in perturbation theory. The calculation provides a non-trivial test of the form of the exact scattering matrix.

  9. Pulsar Polar Cap and Slot Gap Models: Confronting Fermi Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice K. Harding

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Rotation-powered pulsars are excellent laboratories for studying particle acceleration as well as fundamental physics of strong gravity, strong magnetic fields and relativity. Particle acceleration and high-energy emission from the polar caps is expected to occur in connection with electron-positron pair cascades. I will review acceleration and gamma-ray emission from the pulsar polar cap and associated slot gap. Predictions of these models can be tested with the data set on pulsars collected by the Large Area Telescope on the Fermi Gamma-Ray Telescope over the last four years, using both detailed light curve fitting, population synthesis and phase-resolved spectroscopy.

  10. The Impact of Forest Density on Forest Height Inversion Modeling from Polarimetric InSAR Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changcheng Wang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Forest height is of great significance in analyzing the carbon cycle on a global or a local scale and in reconstructing the accurate forest underlying terrain. Major algorithms for estimating forest height, such as the three-stage inversion process, are depending on the random-volume-over-ground (RVoG model. However, the RVoG model is characterized by a lot of parameters, which influence its applicability in forest height retrieval. Forest density, as an important biophysical parameter, is one of those main influencing factors. However, its influence to the RVoG model has been ignored in relating researches. For this paper, we study the applicability of the RVoG model in forest height retrieval with different forest densities, using the simulated and real Polarimetric Interferometric SAR data. P-band ESAR datasets of the European Space Agency (ESA BioSAR 2008 campaign were selected for experiments. The test site was located in Krycklan River catchment in Northern Sweden. The experimental results show that the forest density clearly affects the inversion accuracy of forest height and ground phase. For the four selected forest stands, with the density increasing from 633 to 1827 stems/Ha, the RMSEs of inversion decrease from 4.6 m to 3.1 m. The RVoG model is not quite applicable for forest height retrieval especially in sparsely vegetated areas. We conclude that the forest stand density is positively related to the estimation accuracy of the ground phase, but negatively correlates to the ground-to-volume scattering ratio.

  11. Disturbance regimes, gap-demanding trees and seed mass related to tree height in warm temperate rain forests worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubb, Peter J; Bellingham, Peter J; Kohyama, Takashi S; Piper, Frida I; Valido, Alfredo

    2013-08-01

    For tropical lowland rain forests, Denslow (1987) hypothesized that in areas with large-scale disturbances tree species with a high demand for light make up a larger proportion of the flora; results of tests have been inconsistent. There has been no test for warm temperate rain forests (WTRFs), but they offer a promising testing ground because they differ widely in the extent of disturbance. WTRF is dominated by microphylls sensu Raunkiaer and has a simpler structure and range of physiognomy than tropical or subtropical rain forests. It occurs in six parts of the world: eastern Asia, New Zealand, Chile, South Africa, SE Australia and the Azores. On the Azores it has been mostly destroyed, so we studied instead the subtropical montane rain forest (STMRF) on the Canary Islands which also represents a relict of the kind of WTRF that once stretched across southern Eurasia. We sought to find whether in these six regions the proportion of tree species needing canopy gaps for establishment reflects the frequency and/or extent of canopy disturbance by wind, landslide, volcanic eruptions (lava flow and ash fall), flood or fire. We used standard floras and ecological accounts to draw up lists of core tree species commonly reaching 5 m height. We excluded species which are very rare, very localized in distribution, or confined to special habitats, e.g. coastal forests or rocky sites. We used published accounts and our own experience to classify species into three groups: (1) needing canopy gaps for establishment; (2) needing either light shade throughout or a canopy gap relatively soon (a few months or years) after establishment; and (3) variously more shade-tolerant. Group 1 species were divided according the kind of canopy opening needed: tree-fall gap, landslide, lava flow, flood or fire. Only some of the significant differences in proportion of Group 1 species were consistent with differences in the extent of disturbance; even in some of those cases other factors seem

  12. A three-dimensional model of a gap junction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xylouris, K.; Wittum, G.

    2009-01-01

    Gap junctions are effective electric couplings between neurons and form a very important way of communication between them. Since they can be considered as the points on the neuron's membrane on which for example dendrites of different cells become one piece, in three dimensions they can be modelled by observing this property in the created geometry. Thus they can be easily made part in an already existing 3-dimensional model for signal propagation on the neuron's membrane, if the geometries are chosen in such a way respect the blending of the membranes. A small network of two cells was created, which blend in their dendrites and a simulation of the three-dimensional model was carried out which reveals the fast transmission of the signal from one cell to the other.

  13. Small Mushrooms for Big Business? Gaps in the Sustainable Management of Non-Timber Forest Products in Southwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun He

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The challenge of managing forests for the production of commercial non-timber forest products (NTFPs lies in promoting economic development by maintaining and even increasing production while simultaneously maintaining or improving ecological conditions. The discussion of forest management therefore encompasses a wide range of social, economic, political, and ecological questions. Empirically, it is clear that both market and government failure can lead to unsustainable management in commercial NTFP use. How can we manage the market and at the same time formulate good policies? Taking cases from Southwest China, this paper critically examines the current development of NTFP commercialization in the mountainous region of Southwest China. It focuses particularly on three pieces of research on mushroom collection and marketing. By examining empirical data, the paper analyzes current gaps in the policy and the market in mountainous areas in the context of promoting sustainable use of NTFP. It examines the market structure from the perspective of market failure and explores the government’s failure to promote commercial NTFPs. We recommend economic and political decentralization, capacity building, and government investment as means to improve sustainable management.

  14. Distribution and Conservation of Davilla (Dilleniaceae in Brazilian Atlantic Forest Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismael Martins Pereira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We have modeled the ecological niche for 12 plant species belonging to the genus Davilla (Dilleniaceae which occur in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. This group includes endemic species lianas threatened by extinction and is therefore a useful indicator for forest areas requiring conservation. The aims are to compare the distribution and richness of species within the protected areas, assessing the degree of protection and gap analysis of reserves for this group. We used the Maxent algorithm with environmental and occurrence data, and produced geographic distribution maps. The results show that high species richness occurs in forest and coastal forest of Espírito Santo to Bahia states. The endemic species comprise D. flexuosa, D. macrocarpa, D. flexuosa, D. grandifolia, and D. sessilifolia. In the Atlantic Forest of southeastern Brazil, the following endemic species occur: D. tintinnabulata and D. glaziovii, with this latter species being included in the “red list” due habitat loss and predatory extractivism. The indicators of species richness in the coastal region of Bahia correspond with floristic inventories that point to this area having a high biodiversity. Although this region has several protected areas, there are gaps in reserves, which, combined with anthropogenic threats and fragmentation, have caused several problems for biodiversity.

  15. A model-based approach to estimating forest area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts

    2006-01-01

    A logistic regression model based on forest inventory plot data and transformations of Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery was used to predict the probability of forest for 15 study areas in Indiana, USA, and 15 in Minnesota, USA. Within each study area, model-based estimates of forest area were obtained for circular areas with radii of 5 km, 10 km, and 15 km and...

  16. Structure modeling and mutational analysis of gap junction beta 2 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yomi

    2012-04-03

    Apr 3, 2012 ... Three dimensional (3 D) structure is very useful for understanding biological functions. Gap junction beta 2 (GJB2), human gene encoding for gap junction beta 2 protein is involved in ... Research in deafness became real.

  17. Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonten, Luc T.C.; Groenenberg, Jan E.; Meesenburg, Henning; Vries, Wim de

    2011-01-01

    Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: → Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. → Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. → The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. → Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

  18. Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonten, Luc T.C., E-mail: luc.bonten@wur.nl [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Groenenberg, Jan E. [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Meesenburg, Henning [Northwest German Forest Research Station, Abt. Umweltkontrolle, Sachgebiet Intensives Umweltmonitoring, Goettingen (Germany); Vries, Wim de [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2011-10-15

    Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: > Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. > Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. > The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. > Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

  19. Detection capacity, information gaps and the design of surveillance programs for invasive forest pests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank Koch; Yakov Ben-Haim; William Smith

    2010-01-01

    Integrated pest risk maps and their underlying assessments provide broad guidance for establishing surveillance programs for invasive species, but they rarely account for knowledge gaps regarding the pest of interest or how these can be reduced. In this study we demonstrate how the somewhat competing notions of robustness to uncertainty and potential knowledge gains...

  20. [Dynamics of microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen during foliar litter decomposition under artificial forest gap in Pinus massoniana plantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ming Jin; Chen, Liang Hua; Zhang, Jian; Yang, Wan Qin; Liu, Hua; Li, Xun; Zhang, Yan

    2016-03-01

    Nowadays large areas of plantations have caused serious ecological problems such as soil degradation and biodiversity decline. Artificial tending thinning and construction of mixed forest are frequently used ways when we manage plantations. To understand the effect of this operation mode on nutrient cycle of plantation ecosystem, we detected the dynamics of microbial bio-mass carbon and nitrogen during foliar litter decomposition of Pinus massoniana and Toona ciliate in seven types of gap in different sizes (G 1 : 100 m 2 , G 2 : 225 m 2 , G 3 : 400 m 2 , G 4 : 625 m 2 , G 5 : 900 m 2 , G 6 : 1225 m 2 , G 7 : 1600 m 2 ) of 42-year-old P. massoniana plantations in a hilly area of the upper Yang-tze River. The results showed that small and medium-sized forest gaps(G 1 -G 5 ) were more advantageous for the increment of microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen in the process of foliar litter decomposition. Along with the foliar litter decomposition during the experiment (360 d), microbial biomass carbon (MBC), microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN) in P. massoniana foliar litter and MBN in T. ciliata foliar litter first increased and then decreased, and respectively reached the maxima 9.87, 0.22 and 0.80 g·kg -1 on the 180 th d. But the peak (44.40 g·kg -1 ) of MBC in T. ciliata foliar litter appeared on the 90 th d. Microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen in T. ciliate was significantly higher than that of P. massoniana during foliar litter decomposition. Microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen in foliar litter was not only significantly associated with average daily temperature and the water content of foliar litter, but also closely related to the change of the quality of litter. Therefore, in the thinning, forest gap size could be controlled in the range of from 100 to 900 m 2 to facilitate the increase of microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen in the process of foliar litter decomposition, accelerate the decomposition of foliar litter and improve soil fertility of plantations.

  1. Investigating the relationship between tree heights derived from SIBBORK forest model and remote sensing measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, B.; Feliciano, E. A.; Armstrong, A. H.; Sun, G.; Montesano, P.; Ranson, K.

    2017-12-01

    Tree heights are one of the most commonly used remote sensing parameters to measure biomass of a forest. In this project, we investigate the relationship between remotely sensed tree heights (e.g. G-LiHT lidar and commercially available high resolution satellite imagery, HRSI) and the SIBBORK modeled tree heights. G-LiHT is a portable, airborne imaging system that simultaneously maps the composition, structure, and function of terrestrial ecosystems using lidar, imaging spectroscopy and thermal mapping. Ground elevation and canopy height models were generated using the lidar data acquired in 2012. A digital surface model was also generated using the HRSI technique from the commercially available WorldView data in 2016. The HRSI derived height and biomass products are available at the plot (10x10m) level. For this study, we parameterized the SIBBORK individual-based gap model for Howland forest, Maine. The parameterization was calibrated using field data for the study site and results show that the simulated forest reproduces the structural complexity of Howland old growth forest, based on comparisons of key variables including, aboveground biomass, forest height and basal area. Furthermore carbon cycle and ecosystem observational capabilities will be enhanced over the next 6 years via the launch of two LiDAR (NASA's GEDI and ICESAT 2) and two SAR (NASA's ISRO NiSAR and ESA's Biomass) systems. Our aim is to present the comparison of canopy height models obtained with SIBBORK forest model and remote sensing techniques, highlighting the synergy between individual-based forest modeling and high-resolution remote sensing.

  2. Expanding the Acculturation Gap-Distress Model: An Integrative Review of Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telzer, Eva H.

    2010-01-01

    The acculturation gap-distress model purports that immigrant children acculturate to their new culture at a quicker pace than their parents, leading to family conflict and youth maladjustment. This article reviews literature on the acculturation gap-distress model, showing that acculturation gaps function in unique ways depending on many social…

  3. A model to predict the sound reflection from forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wunderli, J.M.; Salomons, E.M.

    2009-01-01

    A model is presented to predict the reflection of sound at forest edges. A single tree is modelled as a vertical cylinder. For the reflection at a cylinder an analytical solution is given based on the theory of scattering of spherical waves. The entire forest is represented by a line of cylinders

  4. Modelling root reinforcement in shallow forest soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaugset, Arne E.

    1997-01-01

    A hypothesis used to explain the relationship between timber harvesting and landslides is that tree roots add mechanical support to soil, thus increasing soil strength. Upon harvest, the tree roots decay which reduces soil strength and increases the risk of management -induced landslides. The technical literature does not adequately support this hypothesis. Soil strength values attributed to root reinforcement that are in the technical literature are such that forested sites can't fail and all high risk, harvested sites must fail. Both unstable forested sites and stable harvested sites exist, in abundance, in the real world thus, the literature does not adequately describe the real world. An analytical model was developed to calculate soil strength increase due to root reinforcement. Conceptually, the model is composed of a reinforcing element with high tensile strength, i.e. a conifer root, embedded in a material with little tensile strength, i.e. a soil. As the soil fails and deforms, the reinforcing element also deforms and stretches. The lateral deformation of the reinforcing element is treated analytically as a laterally loaded pile in a flexible foundation and the axial deformation is treated as an axially loaded pile. The governing differential equations are solved using finite-difference approximation techniques. The root reinforcement model was tested by comparing the final shape of steel and aluminum rods, parachute cord, wooden dowels, and pine roots in direct shear with predicted shapes from the output of the root reinforcement model. The comparisons were generally satisfactory, were best for parachute cord and wooden dowels, and were poorest for steel and aluminum rods. A parameter study was performed on the root reinforcement model which showed reinforced soil strength increased with increasing root diameter and soil depth. Output from the root reinforcement model showed a strain incompatibility between large and small diameter roots. The peak

  5. Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Mark W. Schwartz

    1994-01-01

    Originally diminished by development, forests are coming back: forest biomass is accumulating. Forests are repositories for many threatened species. Even with increased standing timber, however, biodiversity is threatened by increased forest fragmentation and by exotic species.

  6. SEASONAL VARIATION IN LIGHT TRANSMISSION AND CANOPY GAPS OF DECIDUOUS ROADSIDE VEGETATION: ASSESSMENT WITHIN FOREST LANDSCAPE

    OpenAIRE

    Öztürk, Melih; Gökyer, Ercan

    2015-01-01

    Deciduous roadside vegetation exhibits seasonal patterns of foliage with varying colors and numbers. Hence the alternating percentage of the gaps within the roadside canopy allows changing percentages of light transmission throughout the year. The leafless roadside vegetation in winter is sequentially subject to budburst, flushing, and development stages until the summer, when the leaves are fully developed both in size and number. Then, defoliation follows senescence, and fading and fall sta...

  7. Immunological gap in the infectious animal model for biliary atresia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czech-Schmidt, G; Verhagen, W; Szavay, P; Leonhardt, J; Petersen, C

    2001-11-01

    Extrahepatic biliary atresia (EHBA), the etiology of which still remains unclear, occurs exclusively in newborns and has recently been simulated in an animal model. It is possible to trigger an EHBA corresponding to the human disease by means of intraperitoneal infection of newborn Balb/c mice with rhesus rotavirus (RRV). The aim of the present study was to determine the conditions and circumstances for inducing biliary atresia in this model focusing on first-line immunological aspects. Newborn as well as pregnant Balb/c mice were intraperitoneally infected with RRV. The highest incidence of cholestasis (86%) was achieved by infection with 10(6) PFU/ml RRV within the first 12 h postpartum, resulting in EHBA with a lethality of 100%. However, the later the newborn mouse is infected, the less likelihood there is that EHBA is triggered. Additionally, the incidence of biliary atresia in this model depends on the quantity of the virus that is given intraperitoneally. However, the development of biliary atresia is not correlated to the virus in the liver. The antepartum infection of pregnant mice does not induce EHBA in the offspring. Female mice that are immunized against RRV protect their newborns from developing RRV-induced cholestasis and EHBA. This protection is transmitted transplacentally and not by breast milk. It is obvious that a temporary immunological gap is essential for virally induced EHBA. Further studies should focus on specific parameters of the immune system of newborn mice in this biliary atresia model. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

  8. Modeling charged defects inside density functional theory band gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, Peter A.; Edwards, Arthur H.

    2014-01-01

    Density functional theory (DFT) has emerged as an important tool to probe microscopic behavior in materials. The fundamental band gap defines the energy scale for charge transition energy levels of point defects in ionic and covalent materials. The eigenvalue gap between occupied and unoccupied states in conventional DFT, the Kohn–Sham gap, is often half or less of the experimental band gap, seemingly precluding quantitative studies of charged defects. Applying explicit and rigorous control of charge boundary conditions in supercells, we find that calculations of defect energy levels derived from total energy differences give accurate predictions of charge transition energy levels in Si and GaAs, unhampered by a band gap problem. The GaAs system provides a good theoretical laboratory for investigating band gap effects in defect level calculations: depending on the functional and pseudopotential, the Kohn–Sham gap can be as large as 1.1 eV or as small as 0.1 eV. We find that the effective defect band gap, the computed range in defect levels, is mostly insensitive to the Kohn–Sham gap, demonstrating it is often possible to use conventional DFT for quantitative studies of defect chemistry governing interesting materials behavior in semiconductors and oxides despite a band gap problem

  9. Treefall gap disturbance in an old-growth beech forest in southwestern Japan by a catastrophic typhoon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ida, Hideyuki

    2000-01-01

    In 1991, the catastrophic Typhoon 9119 created many treefall gaps in an old-growth beech (Fagus crenata) forest on Mt. Garyu, southwestern Japan. In a 3.3-ha plot, the density and basal area of fatally damaged trunks (DBH ≥ 20 cm) were 29.1 trunks/ha (16.9% of all pre-typhoon trunks) and 9.1 m 2 /ha. (24.4% of total pre-typhoon basal area), respectively. Many of the dominant beech were lost and larger trunks were damaged. The pre- and post-typhoon DBH distribution both had an inverse J-shape. Spatial distribution of living trunks was not random but clustered irrespective of typhoon damage or DBH size, suggesting that the stand structure of the study plot would be an unusual one as compared with the previous study stands in Japanese beech forests. The death of pre-typhoon trunks, seemed to die standing or to be killed by snap-off, occurred singly; however, the typhoon fatally damaged many clustered trunks at the same time. Uprooting was the most frequent cause of gaps created by the typhoon. The intermediate DBH size class (40 - 70 cm) would be more likely to be uprooted than snapped-off. The DBH distribution of snap-off may reflect the total pre-typhoon trunk distribution. Branch-fall had a flat DBH distribution. Uprooting might have a clustered distribution, while snap-off and branch-fall both had random distributions. The smaller trunks of snap-off and branch-fall seemed to result from injuries caused by the fall of larger trunks

  10. Gap Conductance model Validation in the TASS/SMR-S code using MARS code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Sang Jun; Yang, Soo Hyung; Chung, Young Jong; Lee, Won Jae

    2010-01-01

    Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has been developing the TASS/SMR-S (Transient and Setpoint Simulation/Small and Medium Reactor) code, which is a thermal hydraulic code for the safety analysis of the advanced integral reactor. An appropriate work to validate the applicability of the thermal hydraulic models within the code should be demanded. Among the models, the gap conductance model which is describes the thermal gap conductivity between fuel and cladding was validated through the comparison with MARS code. The validation of the gap conductance model was performed by evaluating the variation of the gap temperature and gap width as the changed with the power fraction. In this paper, a brief description of the gap conductance model in the TASS/SMR-S code is presented. In addition, calculated results to validate the gap conductance model are demonstrated by comparing with the results of the MARS code with the test case

  11. Theory of the one-dimensional forest-fire model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paczuski, M.; Bak, P.

    1993-01-01

    Turbulent cascade processes are studied in terms of a one-dimensional forest-fire model. A hier- archy of steady-state equations for the forests and the holes between them is constructed and solved within a mean-field closure scheme. The exact hole distribution function is found to be N H (s)=4N/[s(s+1)(s+2)], where N is the number of forests

  12. Modelling of 137Cs behaviour in forest ecosystems and prediction of its accumulation in forest products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiridonov, S.I.; Fesenko, S.V.; Gontarenko, I.A.; Avila, R.

    2001-01-01

    A mathematical model of 137 Cs migration in forest ecosystem contaminated due to the Chernobyl accident presented, which describes the behaviour of this radionuclide in the forest litter-soil system, tress, and forest animals. The model's parameters for different types of forest ecosystems are estimated and model's adequacy is tested through the use of independent experimental data. The sensitivity of the model's output variables is analyzed to variations in the most significant parameters. The differences in the seasonal and mean annual dynamics of 137 Cs concentration in muscles of roe deers and mooses are shown to be defined by specific features of the diets of these animals and variations in 137 Cs content in the main diet components [ru

  13. Evaluation of gap heat transfer model in ELESTRES for CANDU fuel element under normal operating conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kang Moon; Ohn, Myung Ryong; Im, Hong Sik; Choi, Jong Hoh; Hwang, Soon Taek

    1995-01-01

    The gap conductance between the fuel and the sheath depends strongly on the gap width and has a significant influence on the amount of initial stored energy. The modified Ross and Stoute gap conductance model in ELESTRES is based on a simplified thermal deformation model for steady-state fuel temperature calculations. A review on a series of experiments reveals that fuel pellets crack, relocate, and are eccentrically positioned within the sheath rather than solid concentric cylinders. In this paper, the two recently-proposed gap conductance models (offset gap model and relocated gap model) are described and are applied to calculate the fuel-sheath gap conductances under experimental conditions and normal operating conditions in CANDU reactors. The good agreement between the experimentally-inferred and calculated gap conductance values demonstrates that the modified Ross and Stoute model was implemented correctly in ELESTRES. The predictions of the modified Ross and Stoute model provide conservative values for gap heat transfer and fuel surface temperature compared to the offset gap and relocated gap models for a limiting power envelope. 13 figs., 3 tabs., 16 refs. (Author)

  14. Study on models for gap conductance between fuel and sheath for CANDU reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, K.M.; Ohn, M.Y.; Lim, H.S.; Choi, J.H.; Hwang, S.T.

    1995-01-01

    The gap conductance between the fuel and the sheath depends strongly on the gap width and has a significant influence on the amount of initial stored energy. The modified Ross and Stoute gap conductance model in ELESTRES is based on a simplified thermal deformation model for steady-state fuel temperature calculations. A review on a series of experiments reveals that fuel pellets crack, relocate, and are eccentrically positioned within the sheath rather than solid concentric cylinders. In this paper, the two recently-proposed gap conductance models (offset gap model and relocated gap model) are described and are applied to calculate the fuel-sheath gap conductances under experimental conditions and normal operating conditions in CANDU reactors. The good agreement between the experimentally-inferred and calculated gap conductance values demonstrates that the modified Ross and Stoute model was implemented correctly in ELESTRES. The predictions of the modified Ross and Stoute model provide conservative values for gap heat transfer and fuel surface temperature compared to the offset gap and relocated gap models for a limiting power envelope. (author)

  15. Forest growth modeling in the Southern Region, National Forest System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belcher, D.M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses an attempt to combine individual tree growth models and stand level growth models currently available for the Region into one computer program. Operation of the program is explained and growth models are included

  16. A large-scale forest landscape model incorporating multi-scale processes and utilizing forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson III; David R. Larsen; Jacob S. Fraser; Jian. Yang

    2013-01-01

    Two challenges confronting forest landscape models (FLMs) are how to simulate fine, standscale processes while making large-scale (i.e., .107 ha) simulation possible, and how to take advantage of extensive forest inventory data such as U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to initialize and constrain model parameters. We present the LANDIS PRO model that...

  17. Towards Linking 3D SAR and Lidar Models with a Spatially Explicit Individual Based Forest Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, B.; Ranson, J.; Sun, G.; Armstrong, A. H.; Fischer, R.; Huth, A.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we present a parameterization of the FORMIND individual-based gap model (IBGM)for old growth Atlantic lowland rainforest in La Selva, Costa Rica for the purpose of informing multisensor remote sensing techniques for above ground biomass techniques. The model was successfully parameterized and calibrated for the study site; results show that the simulated forest reproduces the structural complexity of Costa Rican rainforest based on comparisons with CARBONO inventory plot data. Though the simulated stem numbers (378) slightly underestimated the plot data (418), particularly for canopy dominant intermediate shade tolerant trees and shade tolerant understory trees, overall there was a 9.7% difference. Aboveground biomass (kg/ha) showed a 0.1% difference between the simulated forest and inventory plot dataset. The Costa Rica FORMIND simulation was then used to parameterize a spatially explicit (3D) SAR and lidar backscatter models. The simulated forest stands were used to generate a Look Up Table as a tractable means to estimate aboveground forest biomass for these complex forests. Various combinations of lidar and radar variables were evaluated in the LUT inversion. To test the capability of future data for estimation of forest height and biomass, we considered data of 1) L- (or P-) band polarimetric data (backscattering coefficients of HH, HV and VV); 2) L-band dual-pol repeat-pass InSAR data (HH/HV backscattering coefficients and coherences, height of scattering phase center at HH and HV using DEM or surface height from lidar data as reference); 3) P-band polarimetric InSAR data (canopy height from inversion of PolInSAR data or use the coherences and height of scattering phase center at HH, HV and VV); 4) various height indices from waveform lidar data); and 5) surface and canopy top height from photon-counting lidar data. The methods for parameterizing the remote sensing models with the IBGM and developing Look Up Tables will be discussed. Results

  18. Promoting Sustainable Forest Management Among Stakeholders in the Prince Albert Model Forest, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen T Hvenegaard

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Model Forests are partnerships for shared decision-making to support social, environmental, and economic sustainability in forest management. Relationships among sustainable forest management partners are often strained, but the Prince Albert Model Forest (PAMF represents a process of effective stakeholder involvement, cooperative relationships, visionary planning, and regional landscape management. This article seeks to critically examine the history, drivers, accomplishments, and challenges associated with the PAMF. Four key phases are discussed, representing different funding levels, planning processes, research projects, and partners. Key drivers in the PAMF were funding, urgent issues, provincial responsibility, core of committed people, evolving governance, desire for a neutral organisation, role of protected areas, and potential for mutual benefits. The stakeholders involved in the Model Forest, including the forest industry and associated groups, protected areas, Aboriginal groups, local communities, governments, and research groups, were committed to the project, cooperated on many joint activities, provided significant staffing and financial resources, and gained many benefits to their own organisations. Challenges included declining funding, changing administrative structures, multiple partners, and rotating representatives. The PAMF process promoted consultative and integrated land resource management in the region, and demonstrated the positive results of cooperation between stakeholders interested in sustainable forest management.

  19. Regeneration after 8 years in artificial canopy gaps in mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans F. Muell.) forest in south-eastern Australia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van der P.J.; Dignan, P.

    2007-01-01

    We report on a study of regeneration of Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forest in S.E. Australia in artificially created canopy gaps (0.01¿2 ha) and clearfelled coupes (4¿27 ha) with different seedbed treatments. Treatments were applied in 1988, 1989, and 1990. Our results are based on

  20. Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Assessment and Predictive Modelling in Eastern Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushwaha, S. P. S.; Nandy, S.; Ahmad, M.; Agarwal, R.

    2011-09-01

    This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM). The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975-1990 as well as 1990-2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975-1990 and 1990-2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97%) between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81%) during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05%) by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  1. FOREST ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE MODELLING IN EASTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. S. Kushwaha

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM. The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975–1990 as well as 1990–2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975–1990 and 1990–2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97% between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81% during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05% by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  2. Reducing Excellence Gaps: A Research-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plucker, Jonathan A.; Peters, Scott J.; Schmalensee, Stephanie

    2017-01-01

    As the awareness of the existence and negative effects of excellence gaps has grown among educators and policy makers, so too has a desire for research-supported interventions to reduce these gaps. A recent review of research related to promoting equitable outcomes for all gifted students identified six specific strategies for reducing excellence…

  3. Modeling Precipitation Dependent Forest Resilience in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, P.; Behera, M. D.; Roy, P. S.

    2018-04-01

    The impact of long term climate change that imparts stress on forest could be perceived by studying the regime shift of forest ecosystem. With the change of significant precipitation, forest may go through density change around globe at different spatial and temporal scale. The 100 class high resolution (60 meter spatial resolution) Indian vegetation type map was used in this study recoded into four broad categories depending on phrenology as (i) forest, (ii) scrubland, (iii) grassland and (iv) treeless area. The percentage occupancy of forest, scrub, grass and treeless were observed as 19.9 %, 5.05 %, 1.89 % and 7.79 % respectively. Rest of the 65.37 % land area was occupied by the cropland, built-up, water body and snow covers. The majority forest cover were appended into a 5 km × 5 km grid, along with the mean annual precipitation taken from Bioclim data. The binary presence and absence of different vegetation categories in relates to the annual precipitation was analyzed to calculate their resilience expressed in probability values ranging from 0 to 1. Forest cover observed having resilience probability (Pr) < 0.3 in only 0.3 % (200 km2) of total forest cover in India, which was 4.3 % < 0.5 Pr. Majority of the scrubs and grass (64.92 % Pr < 0.5) from North East India which were the shifting cultivation lands showing low resilience, having their high tendency to be transform to forest. These results have spatial explicitness to highlight the resilient and non-resilient distribution of forest, scrub and grass, and treeless areas in India.

  4. MODELING PRECIPITATION DEPENDENT FOREST RESILIENCE IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Das

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The impact of long term climate change that imparts stress on forest could be perceived by studying the regime shift of forest ecosystem. With the change of significant precipitation, forest may go through density change around globe at different spatial and temporal scale. The 100 class high resolution (60 meter spatial resolution Indian vegetation type map was used in this study recoded into four broad categories depending on phrenology as (i forest, (ii scrubland, (iii grassland and (iv treeless area. The percentage occupancy of forest, scrub, grass and treeless were observed as 19.9 %, 5.05 %, 1.89 % and 7.79 % respectively. Rest of the 65.37 % land area was occupied by the cropland, built-up, water body and snow covers. The majority forest cover were appended into a 5 km × 5 km grid, along with the mean annual precipitation taken from Bioclim data. The binary presence and absence of different vegetation categories in relates to the annual precipitation was analyzed to calculate their resilience expressed in probability values ranging from 0 to 1. Forest cover observed having resilience probability (Pr < 0.3 in only 0.3 % (200 km2 of total forest cover in India, which was 4.3 % < 0.5 Pr. Majority of the scrubs and grass (64.92 % Pr < 0.5 from North East India which were the shifting cultivation lands showing low resilience, having their high tendency to be transform to forest. These results have spatial explicitness to highlight the resilient and non-resilient distribution of forest, scrub and grass, and treeless areas in India.

  5. Alternative business models for forest - dependent communities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The dominant mode of business practice in the African forest sector – especially in the high forest cover regions – comes in the form of concessionaires operating on publicly held lands. Increasingly, however, the concession - based model is being challenged. Is it socially and environmentally sustainable? Does it lead to ...

  6. Modeling soil erosion and transport on forest landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Steven G McNulty

    1998-01-01

    Century-long studies on the impacts of forest management in North America suggest sediment can cause major reduction on stream water quality. Soil erosion patterns in forest watersheds are patchy and heterogeneous. Therefore, patterns of soil erosion are difficult to model and predict. The objective of this study is to develop a user friendly management tool for land...

  7. Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant; Anatoly S. Shvidenko; Robert M. Scheller

    2010-01-01

    Managers of forested landscapes must account for multiple, interacting ecological processes operating at broad spatial and temporal scales. These interactions can be of such complexity that predictions of future forest ecosystem states are beyond the analytical capability of the human mind. Landscape disturbance and succession models (LDSM) are predictive and...

  8. Modeling population dynamics and woody biomass of Alaska coastal forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randy L. Peterson; Jingjing Liang; Tara M. Barrett

    2014-01-01

    Alaska coastal forest, 6.2 million ha in size, has been managed in the past mainly through clearcutting. Declining harvest and dwindling commercial forest resources over the past 2 decades have led to increased interest in management of young-growth stands and utilization of woody biomass for bioenergy. However, existing models to support these new management systems...

  9. A PC microsimulation of a gap acceptance model for turning left at a T-junction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaap, Nina; Dijck, T.; van Arem, Bart; Morsink, Peter L.J.

    2009-01-01

    Vehicles are controlled by sub-behavioral models in a microsimulation model, this includes the gap acceptance model where the decision about how to cross a junction is made. The critical gap in these models must serve as a threshold value to accept or reject the space between two successive vehicles

  10. [Edge effects of forest gap in Pinus massoniana plantations on the decomposition of leaf litter recalcitrant components of Cinnamomum camphora and Toona ciliata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Dan Ju; Li, Xun; Liu, Hua; Zhang, Ming Jin; Yang, Wan Qin; Zhang, Jian

    2016-04-22

    The objective of the study was to evaluate the dynamics of recalcitrant components during foliar litter decomposition under edge effects of forest gap in Pinus massoniana plantations in the low hilly land, Sichuan basin. A field litterbag experiment was conducted in seven forest gaps with different sizes (100, 225, 400, 625, 900, 1225, 1600 m 2 ) which were generated by thinning P. massoniana plantations. The degradation rate of four recalcitrant components, i.e., condensed tannins, total phenol, lignin and cellulose in foliar litter of two native species (Cinnamomum camphora and Toona ciliata) at the gap edge and under the closed canopy were measured. The results showed that the degradation rate of recalcitrant components in T. ciliata litter except for cellulose at the gap edge were significantly higher than that under the closed canopy. For C. camphora litter, only the degradation of lignin at the gap edge was higher than that under the closed canopy. After one-year decomposition, four recalcitrant components in two types of foliar litter exhibited an increment of degradation rate, and the degradation rate of condensed tannin was the fastest, followed by total phenol and cellulose, but the lignin degradation rate was the slowest. With the increase of gap size, except for cellulose, the degradation rate ofthe other three recalcitrant components of the T. ciliata at the edge of medium sized gaps (400 and 625 m 2 ) were significantly higher than at the edge of other gaps. However, lignin in the C. camphora litter at the 625 m 2 gap edge showed the greatest degradation rate. Both temperature and litter initial content were significantly correlated with litter recalcitrant component degradation. Our results suggested that medium sized gaps (400-625 m 2 ) had a more significant edge effect on the degradation of litter recalcitrant components in the two native species in P. massoniana plantations, however, the effect also depended on species.

  11. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Seidl, Rupert; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Fonseca, Teresa F.; Gillet, François; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Merganičová, Katarína; Netherer, Sigrid; Arpaci, Alexander; Bontemps, Jean-Daniel; Bugmann, Harald

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework f...

  12. Comparing Novel Multi-Gap Resistive Plate Chamber Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stien, Haley; EIC PID Consortium Collaboration

    2016-09-01

    Investigating nuclear structure has led to the fundamental theory of Quantum Chromodynamics. An Electron Ion Collider (EIC) is a proposed accelerator that would further these investigations. In order to prepare for the EIC, there is an active detector research and development effort. One specific goal is to achieve better particle identification via improved Time of Flight (TOF) detectors. A promising option is the Multi-Gap Resistive Plate Chamber (mRPC). These detectors are similar to the more traditional RPCs, but their active gas gaps have dividers to form several thinner gas gaps. These very thin and accurately defined gas gaps improve the timing resolution of the chamber, so the goal is to build an mRPC with the thinnest gaps to achieve the best possible timing resolution. Two different construction techniques have been employed to make two mRPCs. The first technique is to physically separate the gas gaps with sheets of glass that are .2mm thick. The second technique is to 3D print the layered gas gaps. A comparison of these mRPCs and their performances will be discussed and the latest data presented. This research was supported by US DOE MENP Grant DE-FG02-03ER41243.

  13. Modeling of Photonic Band Gap Crystals and Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Kady, Ihab Fathy [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2002-01-01

    In this work, the authors have undertaken a theoretical approach to the complex problem of modeling the flow of electromagnetic waves in photonic crystals. The focus is to address the feasibility of using the exciting phenomena of photonic gaps (PBG) in actual applications. The authors start by providing analytical derivations of the computational electromagnetic methods used in their work. They also present a detailed explanation of the physics underlying each approach, as well as a comparative study of the strengths and weaknesses of each method. The Plane Wave expansion, Transfer Matrix, and Finite Difference time Domain Methods are addressed. They also introduce a new theoretical approach, the Modal Expansion Method. They then shift the attention to actual applications. They begin with a discussion of 2D photonic crystal wave guides. The structure addressed consists of a 2D hexagonal structure of air cylinders in a layered dielectric background. Comparison with the performance of a conventional guide is made, as well as suggestions for enhancing it. The studies provide an upper theoretical limit on the performance of such guides, as they assumed no crystal imperfections and non-absorbing media. Next, they study 3D metallic PBG materials at near infrared and optical wavelengths. The main objective is to study the importance of absorption in the metal and the suitability of observing photonic band gaps in such structures. They study simple cubic structures where the metallic scatters are either cubes or interconnected metallic rods. Several metals are studied (aluminum, gold, copper, and silver). The effect of topology is addressed and isolated metallic cubes are found to be less lossy than the connected rod structures. The results reveal that the best performance is obtained by choosing metals with a large negative real part of the dielectric function, together with a relatively small imaginary part. Finally, they point out a new direction in photonic crystal

  14. Modelling and design of complete photonic band gaps in two ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Photonic crystal; complete photonic band gap; plane-wave expansion method. ... lies in the possibility of the substantial control of the radiation field by means of ... research. To prevent the propagation of the waves, whatever its direction is, the.

  15. Modelling interactions of carbon dioxide, forests, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxmoore, R.J.; Baldocchi, D.D.

    1994-01-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide is rising and forests and climate is changing exclamation point This combination of fact and premise may be evaluated at a range of temporal and spatial scales with the aid of computer simulators describing the interrelationships between forest vegetation, litter and soil characteristics, and appropriate meteorological variables. Some insights on the effects of climate on the transfers of carbon and the converse effect of carbon transfer on climate are discussed as a basis for assessing the significance of feedbacks between vegetation and climate under conditions of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Three main classes of forest models are reviewed. These are physiologically-based models, forest succession simulators based on the JABOWA model, and ecosystem-carbon budget models that use compartment transfer rates with empirically estimated coefficients. Some regression modeling approaches are also outlined. Energy budget models applied to forests and grasslands are also reviewed. This review presents examples of forest models; a comprehensive discussion of all available models is not undertaken

  16. Estimating Canopy Gap Fraction Using ICESat GLAS within Australian Forest Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Mahoney

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Spaceborne laser altimetry waveform estimates of canopy Gap Fraction (GF vary with respect to discrete return airborne equivalents due to their greater sensitivity to reflectance differences between canopy and ground surfaces resulting from differences in footprint size, energy thresholding, noise characteristics and sampling geometry. Applying scaling factors to either the ground or canopy portions of waveforms has successfully circumvented this issue, but not at large scales. This study develops a method to scale spaceborne altimeter waveforms by identifying which remotely-sensed vegetation, terrain and environmental attributes are best suited to predicting scaling factors based on an independent measure of importance. The most important attributes were identified as: soil phosphorus and nitrogen contents, vegetation height, MODIS vegetation continuous fields product and terrain slope. Unscaled and scaled estimates of GF are compared to corresponding ALS data for all available data and an optimized subset, where the latter produced most encouraging results (R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 0.10. This methodology shows potential for successfully refining estimates of GF at large scales and identifies the most suitable attributes for deriving appropriate scaling factors. Large-scale active sensor estimates of GF can establish a baseline from which future monitoring investigations can be initiated via upcoming Earth Observation missions.

  17. Hydrogeologic Model for the Gable Gap Area, Hanford Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjornstad, Bruce N.; Thorne, Paul D.; Williams, Bruce A.; Last, George V.; Thomas, Gregory S.; Thompson, Michael D.; Ludwig, Jami L.; Lanigan, David C.

    2010-09-30

    Gable Gap is a structural and topographic depression between Gable Mountain and Gable Butte within the central Hanford Site. It has a long and complex geologic history, which includes tectonic uplift synchronous with erosional downcutting associated with the ancestral Columbia River during both Ringold and Cold Creek periods, and by the later Ice Age (mostly glacial Lake Missoula) floods. The gap was subsequently buried and partially backfilled by mostly coarse-grained, Ice Age flood deposits (Hanford formation). Erosional remnants of both the Ringold Formation and Cold Creek unit locally underlie the high-energy flood deposits. A large window exists in the gap where confined basalt aquifers are in contact with the unconfined suprabasalt aquifer. Several paleochannels, of both Hanford and Ringold Formation age, were eroded into the basalt bedrock across Gable Gap. Groundwater from the Central Plateau presently moves through Gable Gap via one or more of these shallow paleochannels. As groundwater levels continue to decline in the region, groundwater flow may eventually be cut off through Gable Gap.

  18. Using Random Forest Models to Predict Organizational Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Burton; Bobashev, Georgly

    2012-01-01

    We present a methodology to access the proclivity of an organization to commit violence against nongovernment personnel. We fitted a Random Forest model using the Minority at Risk Organizational Behavior (MAROS) dataset. The MAROS data is longitudinal; so, individual observations are not independent. We propose a modification to the standard Random Forest methodology to account for the violation of the independence assumption. We present the results of the model fit, an example of predicting violence for an organization; and finally, we present a summary of the forest in a "meta-tree,"

  19. Understanding forest-derived biomass supply with GIS modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hock, B. K.; Blomqvist, L.; Hall, P.

    2012-01-01

    distribution, and the cost of delivery as forests are frequently remote from energy users. A GIS-based model was developed to predict supply curves of forest biomass material for a site or group of sites, both now and in the future. The GIS biomass supply model was used to assist the New Zealand Energy...... Efficiency and Conservation Authority's development of a national target for biomass use for industrial heat production, to determine potential forest residue volumes for industrial heat and their delivery costs for 19 processing plants of the dairy company Fonterra, and towards investigating options...

  20. Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning approaches such as random forest have increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuous variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensemble approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches there is no direct quantification of prediction error. Understanding prediction uncertainty is important when using model-based continuous maps as...

  1. Stand model for upland forests of Southern Arkansas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mielke, D.L.; Shugart, H.H.; West, D.C.

    1978-06-01

    A forest stand growth and composition simulator (FORAR) was developed by modifying a stand growth model by Shugart and West (1977). FORAR is a functional stand model which used ecological parameters to relate individual tree growth to environment rather than using Markov probability matrices or differential equations to determine single tree or species replacement rates. FORAR simulated tree growth and species composition of upland forests of Union County, Ark., by considering 33 tree species on a /sup 1///sub 12/ ha circular plot.

  2. Modelling the migration and accumulation of radionuclides in forest ecosystems. Report of the Forest Working Group of BIOMASS Theme 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-08-01

    The IAEA Programme on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment (BIOMASS) was launched in Vienna in October 1996. The programme was concerned with developing and improving capabilities to predict the transfer of radionuclides in the environment. The programme had three themes: Theme 1: Radioactive Waste Disposal. The objective was to develop the concept of a standard or reference biosphere for application to the assessment of the long-term safety of repositories for radioactive waste. Under the general heading of 'Reference Biospheres', six Task Groups were established: Task Group 1: Principles for the Definition of Critical and Other Exposure Groups. Task Group 2: Principles for the Application of Data to Assessment Models. Task Group 3: Consideration of Alternative Assessment Contexts. Task Group 4: Biosphere System Identification and Justification. Task Group 5: Biosphere System Descriptions. Task Group 6: Model Development. Theme 2: Environmental Releases. BIOMASS provided an international forum for activities aimed at increasing the confidence in methods and models for the assessment of radiation exposure related to environmental releases. Two Working Groups addressed issues concerned with the reconstruction of radiation doses received by people from past releases of radionuclides to the environment and the evaluation of the efficacy of remedial measures. Theme 3: Biosphere Processes. The aim of this Theme was to improve capabilities for modelling the transfer of radionuclides in particular parts of the biosphere identified as being of potential radiological significance and where there were gaps in modelling approaches. This topic was explored using a range of methods including reviews of the literature, model inter-comparison exercises and, where possible, model testing against independent sources of data. Three Working Groups were established to examine the modelling of: (1) long-term tritium dispersion in the environment; (2) radionuclide uptake by fruits; and (3

  3. [Measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hai-Qing; Wei, Shu-Jing; Jin, Sen; Sun, Long

    2012-05-01

    Forest fire is the main disturbance factor for forest ecosystem, and an important pathway of the decrease of vegetation- and soil carbon storage. Large amount of carbonaceous gases in forest fire can release into atmosphere, giving remarkable impacts on the atmospheric carbon balance and global climate change. To scientifically and effectively measure the carbonaceous gases emission from forest fire is of importance in understanding the significance of forest fire in the carbon balance and climate change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire, which covered three critical issues, i. e., measurement methods of forest fire-induced total carbon emission and carbonaceous gases emission, affecting factors and measurement parameters of measurement model, and cause analysis of the uncertainty in the measurement of the carbon emissions. Three path selections to improve the quantitative measurement of the carbon emissions were proposed, i. e., using high resolution remote sensing data and improving algorithm and estimation accuracy of burned area in combining with effective fuel measurement model to improve the accuracy of the estimated fuel load, using high resolution remote sensing images combined with indoor controlled environment experiments, field measurements, and field ground surveys to determine the combustion efficiency, and combining indoor controlled environment experiments with field air sampling to determine the emission factors and emission ratio.

  4. Modeling the mitigation effect of coastal forests on tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kh'ng, Xin Yi; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye

    2017-08-01

    As we have learned from the 26 Dec 2004 mega Andaman tsunami that killed 250, 000 lives worldwide, tsunami is a devastating natural disaster that can cause severe impacts including immense loss of human lives and extensive destruction of properties. The wave energy can be dissipated by the presence of coastal mangrove forests, which provide some degree of protection against tsunami waves. On the other hand, costly artificial structures such as reinforced walls can substantially diminish the aesthetic value and may cause environmental problems. To quantify the effectiveness of coastal forests in mitigating tsunami waves, an in-house 2-D model TUNA-RP is developed and used to quantify the reduction in wave heights and velocities due to the presence of coastal forests. The degree of reduction varies significantly depending on forest flow-resistant properties such as vegetation characteristics, forest density and forest width. The ability of coastal forest in reducing tsunami wave heights along the west coast of Penang Island is quantified by means of model simulations. Comparison between measured tsunami wave heights for the 2004 Andaman tsunami and 2-D TUNA-RP model simulated values demonstrated good agreement.

  5. Effects of model choice and forest structure on inventory-based estimations of Puerto Rican forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas J. Brandeis; Maria Del Rocio; Suarez Rozo

    2005-01-01

    Total aboveground live tree biomass in Puerto Rican lower montane wet, subtropical wet, subtropical moist and subtropical dry forests was estimated using data from two forest inventories and published regression equations. Multiple potentially-applicable published biomass models existed for some forested life zones, and their estimates tended to diverge with increasing...

  6. The effects of seed dispersal on the simulation of long-term forest landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

    1999-01-01

    The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal,...

  7. Modelling and design of complete photonic band gaps in two ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, we investigate the existence and variation of complete photonic band gap size with the introduction of asymmetry in the constituent dielectric rods with honeycomb lattices in two-dimensional photonic crystals (PhC) using the plane-wave expansion (PWE) method. Two examples, one consisting of elliptical rods ...

  8. Assessing Emphasis Gaps among MBA Alumni: A Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Auken, Stuart; Chrysler, Earl; Wells, Ludmilla Gricenko

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to focus on Master of Business Administration (MBA) alumni and their ability to provide institution-specific insights into MBA program delivery. Given desired MBA positioning dimensions, a case exemplar is used to reveal gaps between "should have" program emphases and "actual" emphases. Departures from…

  9. Modelling Forest Water Consumption in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dolman, A.J.; Nonhebel, S.

    1988-01-01

    The water consumption of oak, beech, spruce and pine forest is predicted from routinely measured meteorological data for five locations in the Netherlands. Differences in water consumption are found to be primarily a result of differences in interception loss. Predicted interception loss was found

  10. Modeling alternative zoning strategies in forest management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krcmar, E.; Vertinsky, I.; Kooten, van G.C.

    2003-01-01

    To satisfy public demands for environmental values, forest companies are facing the prospect of a reduction in wood supply and increases in costs. Some Canadian provincial governments have proposed intensifying silviculture in special zones dedicated to timber production as the means for pushing out

  11. Monitoring, modelling and managing Canada's forest carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurz, W.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents information concerning the management of carbon stocks both globally and in Canada, with reference to the fact that forests may contribute to carbon emissions problems. Global fossil carbon emissions statistics were provided, as well as data of forest area per capita in Canada and various countries. Details of forest management options and carbon accounting with reference to the Kyoto Protocol were reviewed. An explanation of forest management credits in national accounts was provided. An explanation of carbon sinks and carbon sources was also presented, along with details of stand level carbon dynamics. A model for calculating landscape level carbon stocks was presented, with reference to increasing and decreasing disturbances. A hypothetical landscape example was provided. It was concluded that age-class structure affect the amount of carbon stored in landscape; age-class structure also affect carbon dynamics; and responses reflect the change in disturbance regimes. An overview of international reporting requirements was presented. Canadian harvests equal 54,000 tonnes of carbon per year. It was recommended that managed forests could increase carbon in forests while also managing carbon harvests to meet society's needs. A chart presenting forest management details was presented, along with a hypothetical landscape example and a forecast for cumulative changes after 50 years, The benefits and challenges of forest management were reviewed as well as options regarding salvaging and deforestation avoidance. A carbon budget model was presented. It was concluded that forests in Canada could be used in a greenhouse gas management strategy. However, changes in disturbance may mean the difference between net source or net sink. Details of biomass were presented and multi-mode combustion facilities. The feasibility of biomass as a fuel source was discussed, with reference to hydrogen fuel. Gas composition profiles were provided, as well as details of

  12. Modelling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V.K.; Melton, J.R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model

  13. Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

    2010-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

  14. Structural Equation Modeling: Theory and Applications in Forest Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzeng Yih Lam

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystem dynamics are driven by a complex array of simultaneous cause-and-effect relationships. Understanding this complex web requires specialized analytical techniques such as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM. The SEM framework and implementation steps are outlined in this study, and we then demonstrate the technique by application to overstory-understory relationships in mature Douglas-fir forests in the northwestern USA. A SEM model was formulated with (1 a path model representing the effects of successively higher layers of vegetation on late-seral herbs through processes such as light attenuation and (2 a measurement model accounting for measurement errors. The fitted SEM model suggested a direct negative effect of light attenuation on late-seral herbs cover but a direct positive effect of northern aspect. Moreover, many processes have indirect effects mediated through midstory vegetation. SEM is recommended as a forest management tool for designing silvicultural treatments and systems for attaining complex arrays of management objectives.

  15. Modeling Forest Succession among Ecological Land Units in Northern Minnesota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Host

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Field and modeling studies were used to quantify potential successional pathways among fine-scale ecological classification units within two geomorphic regions of north-central Minnesota. Soil and overstory data were collected on plots stratified across low-relief ground moraines and undulating sand dunes. Each geomorphic feature was sampled across gradients of topography or soil texture. Overstory conditions were sampled using five variable-radius point samples per plot; soil samples were analyzed for carbon and nitrogen content. Climatic, forest composition, and soil data were used to parameterize the sample plots for use with LINKAGES, a forest growth model that simulates changes in composition and soil characteristics over time. Forest composition and soil properties varied within and among geomorphic features. LINKAGES simulations were using "bare ground" and the current overstory as starting conditions. Northern hardwoods or pines dominated the late-successional communities of morainal and dune landforms, respectively. The morainal landforms were dominated by yellow birch and sugar maple; yellow birch reached its maximum abundance in intermediate landscape positions. On the dune sites, pine was most abundant in drier landscape positions, with white spruce increasing in abundance with increasing soil moisture and N content. The differences in measured soil properties and predicted late-successional composition indicate that ecological land units incorporate some of the key variables that govern forest composition and structure. They further show the value of ecological classification and modeling for developing forest management strategies that incorporate the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest ecosystems.

  16. Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerman, Susannah B.; Nislow, Keith H.; Nowak, David J.; DeStefano, Stephen; King, David I.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd

    2014-01-01

    The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat to sustain bird and other wildlife populations. The primary goal of this study was to integrate wildlife suitability indices to an existing national urban forest assessment tool, i-Tree. We quantified available habitat characteristics of urban forests for ten northeastern U.S. cities, and summarized bird habitat relationships from the literature in terms of variables that were represented in the i-Tree datasets. With these data, we generated habitat suitability equations for nine bird species representing a range of life history traits and conservation status that predicts the habitat suitability based on i-Tree data. We applied these equations to the urban forest datasets to calculate the overall habitat suitability for each city and the habitat suitability for different types of land-use (e.g., residential, commercial, parkland) for each bird species. The proposed habitat models will help guide wildlife managers, urban planners, and landscape designers who require specific information such as desirable habitat conditions within an urban management project to help improve the suitability of urban forests for birds.

  17. Estimating Carbon Dynamics in an Intact Lowland Mixed Dipterocarp Forest Using a Forest Carbon Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jongyeol Lee

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Intact dipterocarp forests in Asia act as crucial carbon (C reservoirs, and it is therefore important to investigate the C dynamics in these forests. We estimated C dynamics, together with net ecosystem production (NEP, in an intact tropical dipterocarp forest of Brunei Darussalam. Fifty-four simulation units (plots; 20 m × 20 m were established and initial C stocks were determined via direct field measurement. The C dynamics were annually simulated with a regression model and the Forest Biomass and Dead organic matter Carbon (FBDC model. The initial C stock (Mg C·ha−1 of biomass, litter, dead wood and mineral soil were 213.1 ± 104.8, 2.0 ± 0.8, 31.3 ± 38.8, and 80.7 ± 15.5, respectively. Their annual changes (Mg C·ha−1·year−1 were 3.2 ± 1.1, 0.2 ± 0.2, −3.7 ± 6.1, and −0.3 ± 1.1, respectively. NEP was −0.6 ± 6.1 Mg C·ha−1·year−1, showing large heterogeneity among the plots. The initial C stocks of biomass and dead wood, biomass turnover rates and dead wood decay rates were elucidated as dominant factors determining NEP in a sensitivity analysis. Accordingly, investigation on those input data can constrain an uncertainty in determining NEP in the intact tropical forests.

  18. The Waswanipi Cree Model Forest: Demonstrating Aboriginal leadership in sustainable forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jolly, A.

    1999-09-01

    Experiences of the Waswanipi Cree community in being partners in sustainable forest management are discussed. The Waswanipi Cree Model Forest was designated as such in 1997. Since then, it has come to be seen as a forum for the community to express its needs, goals and objectives for the future, and as the first opportunity for the Cree community to exercise leadership and decision-making authority related to land management issues. The Waswanipi land is situated on the southernmost tip of eastern James Bay. It extends to some 35,000 sq km, divided into 52 family hunting territories, called traplines. Each trapline has a designated custodian, who is responsible for ensuring that wildlife is harvested in a sustainable manner. Community life is organized around the traplines, although families will sometimes temporarily relocate close to paid employment opportunities. Nevertheless, the purpose of employment is always to return to the bush, with sufficient materials and supplies to last the hunting and trapping season. Prior to the designation of the Model Forest, the major problems have been the rate and extent of forestry activities on Cree land by outside timber companies, the absence of opportunities for the Cree to have a meaningful role in decisions that impacted their future and the difficulties of convincing government experts and forestry companies to allow the Cree to bring their experience-based knowledge to bear on forest resource management issues. The manner in which the new partnership resulting from the designation of the Model Forest is opening the way to better understanding, mitigation of the negative effects of forestry operations on traplines, mediation of conflicts between trappers and forestry companies with timber licences on Waswanipi land, are described as one of the major achievements of the Model Forest Program. The rate and extent of cutting continues to be a problem, however, there are signs of a growing understanding among the timber

  19. A New Model of Tracheostomy Care: Closing the Research-Practice Gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    521 A New Model of Tracheostomy Care: Closing the Research –Practice Gap Joel St. Clair Abstract Performance improvements have brought about...and it continues to close the research - practice gap . The WRAMC Department of Nursing is presently developing similar evidence-based procedures for... Research -Practice Gap 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK

  20. Modelling of deep gaps created by giant planets in protoplanetary disks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanagawa, Kazuhiro D.; Tanaka, Hidekazu; Muto, Takayuki; Tanigawa, Takayuki

    2017-12-01

    A giant planet embedded in a protoplanetary disk creates a gap. This process is important for both theory and observation. Using results of a survey for a wide parameter range with two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations, we constructed an empirical formula for the gap structure (i.e., the radial surface density distribution), which can reproduce the gap width and depth obtained by two-dimensional simulations. This formula enables us to judge whether an observed gap is likely to be caused by an embedded planet or not. The propagation of waves launched by the planet is closely connected to the gap structure. It makes the gap wider and shallower as compared with the case where an instantaneous wave damping is assumed. The hydrodynamic simulations show that the waves do not decay immediately at the launching point of waves, even when the planet is as massive as Jupiter. Based on the results of hydrodynamic simulations, we also obtained an empirical model of wave propagation and damping in cases of deep gaps. The one-dimensional gap model with our wave propagation model is able to reproduce the gap structures in hydrodynamic simulations well. In the case of a Jupiter-mass planet, we also found that the waves with a smaller wavenumber (e.g., m = 2) are excited and transport the angular momentum to a location far away from the planet. The wave with m = 2 is closely related with a secondary wave launched by a site opposite from the planet.

  1. Reducing uncertainty for estimating forest carbon stocks and dynamics using integrated remote sensing, forest inventory and process-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.; Joetzjer, E.; Maignan, F.; Luyssaert, S.; Barichivich, J.

    2015-12-01

    Accurately estimating forest biomass and forest carbon dynamics requires new integrated remote sensing, forest inventory, and carbon cycle modeling approaches. Presently, there is an increasing and urgent need to reduce forest biomass uncertainty in order to meet the requirements of carbon mitigation treaties, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). Here we describe a new parameterization and assimilation methodology used to estimate tropical forest biomass using the ORCHIDEE-CAN dynamic global vegetation model. ORCHIDEE-CAN simulates carbon uptake and allocation to individual trees using a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis, respiration and other first-order processes. The model is first parameterized using forest inventory data to constrain background mortality rates, i.e., self-thinning, and productivity. Satellite remote sensing data for forest structure, i.e., canopy height, is used to constrain simulated forest stand conditions using a look-up table approach to match canopy height distributions. The resulting forest biomass estimates are provided for spatial grids that match REDD+ project boundaries and aim to provide carbon estimates for the criteria described in the IPCC Good Practice Guidelines Tier 3 category. With the increasing availability of forest structure variables derived from high-resolution LIDAR, RADAR, and optical imagery, new methodologies and applications with process-based carbon cycle models are becoming more readily available to inform land management.

  2. Forecasting forest development through modeling based on the legacy of forest structure over the past 43 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.Z. Baskent

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires comprehensive coverage of data to reflect both the historical legacy and the future development of forests.  This study focuses on analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of forests over the past 43 years to help better forecast the future development of forest under various management strategies.Area of study: The area is situated in Karaisalı district of Adana city in the southeastern corner of Turkey.Material and methods: The historical pattern from 1969 to 2012 was assessed with digital forest cover type maps, produced with high resolution aerial photo interpretation using Geographic Information Systems (GIS. The forest development over the next 120 years was forecasted using ecosystem-based multiple use forest management model (ETÇAP to understand the cause-effect relationships under various management strategies.Main results: The result showed that over the past 43 years while total forest areas decreased about 1194 ha (4%, the productive forest areas increased about 5397 ha (18% with a decrease of degraded forest (5824 ha, 20% and increase of maquis areas (2212 ha, 7%.The forecast of forest development under traditional management strategy resulted in an unsustainable forest due to broken initial age class structure, yet generated more total harvest (11% due to 88% relaxing of even timber flow constraint. While more volume could be harvested under traditional management conditions, the sustainability of future forest is significantly jeopardized.Research highlights: This result trongly implies that it is essential adopting modeling techniques to understand forest dynamics and forecast the future development comprehensively.Keywords: Forest management; simulation; optimization; forest dynamics; land use change.

  3. Modifying Geometric-Optical Bidirectional Reflectance Model for Direct Inversion of Forest Canopy Leaf Area Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congrong Li

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Forest canopy leaf area index (LAI inversion based on remote sensing data is an important method to obtain LAI. Currently, the most widely-used model to achieve forest canopy structure parameters is the Li-Strahler geometric-optical bidirectional reflectance model, by considering the effect of crown shape and mutual shadowing, which is referred to as the GOMS model. However, it is difficult to retrieve LAI through the GOMS model directly because LAI is not a fundamental parameter of the model. In this study, a gap probability model was used to obtain the relationship between the canopy structure parameter nR2 and LAI. Thus, LAI was introduced into the GOMS model as an independent variable by replacing nR2 The modified GOMS (MGOMS model was validated by application to Dayekou in the Heihe River Basin of China. The LAI retrieved using the MGOMS model with optical multi-angle remote sensing data, high spatial resolution images and field-measured data was in good agreement with the field-measured LAI, with an R-square (R2 of 0.64, and an RMSE of 0.67. The results demonstrate that the MGOMS model obtained by replacing the canopy structure parameter nR2 of the GOMS model with LAI can be used to invert LAI directly and precisely.

  4. Model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

    1980-01-01

    A linear compartment model with donor-controlled flows between compartments was designed to describe and simulate the behavior of plutonium ( 239 240 Pu) in a contaminated forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, TN. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the plutonium in the ecosystem resides in biota. Soil is the major repository of plutonium in the forest, and exchanges of plutonium between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of plutonium. Variation in predicted steady-state amounts of plutonium in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicates that our ability to develop models of plutonium transport in ecosystems should improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in plutonium data

  5. Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

    1998-03-01

    The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man. 42 refs, 3 tabs, 9 figs.

  6. Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

    1998-03-01

    The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man

  7. Forest growth and timber quality: crown models and simulation methods for sustainable forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis P. Dykstra; Robert A. Monserud

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the international conference from which these proceedings are drawn was to explore relationships between forest management activities and timber quality. Sessions were organized to explore models and simulation methodologies that contribute to an understanding of tree development over time and the ways that management and harvesting activities can...

  8. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

    1999-01-01

    No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

  9. Modeling and Validation across Scales: Parametrizing the effect of the forested landscape

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dellwik, Ebba; Badger, Merete; Angelou, Nikolas

    be transferred into a parametrization of forests in wind models. The presentation covers three scales: the single tree, the forest edges and clearings, and the large-scale forested landscape in which the forest effects are parameterized with a roughness length. Flow modeling results and validation against...

  10. Radiation dose from Chernobyl forests: assessment using the 'forestpath' model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schell, W.R.; Linkov, I.; Belinkaia, E.; Rimkevich, V.; Zmushko, Yu.; Lutsko, A.; Fifield, F.W.; Flowers, A.G.; Wells, G.

    1996-01-01

    Contaminated forests can contribute significantly to human radiation dose for a few decades after initial contamination. Exposure occurs through harvesting the trees, manufacture and use of forest products for construction materials and paper production, and the consumption of food harvested from forests. Certain groups of the population, such as wild animal hunters and harvesters of berries, herbs and mushrooms, can have particularly large intakes of radionuclides from natural food products. Forestry workers have been found to receive radiation doses several times higher than other groups in the same area. The generic radionuclide cycling model 'forestpath' is being applied to evaluate the human radiation dose and risks to population groups resulting from living and working near the contaminated forests. The model enables calculations to be made to predict the internal and external radiation doses at specific times following the accident. The model can be easily adjusted for dose calculations from other contamination scenarios (such as radionuclide deposition at a low and constant rate as well as complex deposition patterns). Experimental data collected in the forests of Southern Belarus are presented. These data, together with the results of epidemiological studies, are used for model calibration and validation

  11. Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

    1998-01-01

    The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

  12. Modeling Alaska boreal forests with a controlled trend surface approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Jingjing Liang

    2012-01-01

    An approach of Controlled Trend Surface was proposed to simultaneously take into consideration large-scale spatial trends and nonspatial effects. A geospatial model of the Alaska boreal forest was developed from 446 permanent sample plots, which addressed large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of...

  13. LASL models for environmental transport of radionuclides in forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Smith, W.J.; Johnson, L.J.

    1978-01-01

    The Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory has been developing techniques for evaluating the adequacy of shallow land radioactive disposal sites to contain disposed radionuclides. This report discusses developments in applying a Biological Transport Model to simulate the cycling of plutonium in pinyon-juniper, and ponderosa pine forest ecosystems through serial stage developments using plant growth dynamics created in the model

  14. Predictive models of forest logging residues of Triplochiton ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model developed indicated that logarithmic functions performed better than other form of equation. The findings of this study revealed that there is significant logging residues left to waste in the forest after timber harvest and quantifying this logging residue in terms of biomass model can serve as management tools in ...

  15. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Fernandes, P.M.; Fonseca, T.F.; Gillet, F.; Jöhnsson, A.M.; Merganičová, K.; Netherer, S.; Arpaci, A.; Bontemps, J.D.; Bugmann, H.; González-Olabarria, J.R.; Lasch, P.; Meredieu, C.; Moreira, F.; Schelhaas, M.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling

  16. Modeling the radiation transfer of discontinuous canopies: results for gap probability and single-scattering contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Feng; Zou, Kai; Shang, Hong; Ji, Zheng; Zhao, Huijie; Huang, Wenjiang; Li, Cunjun

    2010-10-01

    In this paper we present an analytical model for the computation of radiation transfer of discontinuous vegetation canopies. Some initial results of gap probability and bidirectional gap probability of discontinuous vegetation canopies, which are important parameters determining the radiative environment of the canopies, are given and compared with a 3- D computer simulation model. In the model, negative exponential attenuation of light within individual plant canopies is assumed. Then the computation of gap probability is resolved by determining the entry points and exiting points of the ray with the individual plants via their equations in space. For the bidirectional gap probability, which determines the single-scattering contribution of the canopy, a gap statistical analysis based model was adopted to correct the dependence of gap probabilities for both solar and viewing directions. The model incorporates the structural characteristics, such as plant sizes, leaf size, row spacing, foliage density, planting density, leaf inclination distribution. Available experimental data are inadequate for a complete validation of the model. So it was evaluated with a three dimensional computer simulation model for 3D vegetative scenes, which shows good agreement between these two models' results. This model should be useful to the quantification of light interception and the modeling of bidirectional reflectance distributions of discontinuous canopies.

  17. A model of forest floor carbon mass for United States forest types

    Science.gov (United States)

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

    2002-01-01

    Includes a large set of published values of forest floor mass and develop large-scale estimates of carbon mass according to region and forest type. Estimates of average forest floor carbon mass per hectare of forest applied to a 1997 summary forest inventory, sum to 4.5 Gt carbon stored in forests of the 48 contiguous United States.

  18. Nitrogen cycling models and their application to forest harvesting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, D.W.; Dale, V.H.

    1986-01-01

    The characterization of forest nitrogen- (N-) cycling processes by several N-cycling models (FORCYTE, NITCOMP, FORTNITE, and LINKAGES) is briefly reviewed and evaluated against current knowledge of N cycling in forests. Some important processes (e.g., translocation within trees, N dynamics in decaying leaf litter) appear to be well characterized, whereas others (e.g., N mineralization from soil organic matter, N fixation, N dynamics in decaying wood, nitrification, and nitrate leaching) are poorly characterized, primarily because of a lack of knowledge rather than an oversight by model developers. It is remarkable how well the forest models do work in the absence of data on some key processes. For those systems in which the poorly understood processes could cause major changes in N availability or productivity, the accuracy of model predictions should be examined. However, the development of N-cycling models represents a major step beyond the much simpler, classic conceptual models of forest nutrient cycling developed by early investigators. The new generation of computer models will surely improve as research reveals how key nutrient-cycling processes operate.

  19. Capacity Prediction Model Based on Limited Priority Gap-Acceptance Theory at Multilane Roundabouts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaowei Qu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Capacity is an important design parameter for roundabouts, and it is the premise of computing their delay and queue. Roundabout capacity has been studied for decades, and empirical regression model and gap-acceptance model are the two main methods to predict it. Based on gap-acceptance theory, by considering the effect of limited priority, especially the relationship between limited priority factor and critical gap, a modified model was built to predict the roundabout capacity. We then compare the results between Raff’s method and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE method, and the MLE method was used to predict the critical gaps. Finally, the predicted capacities from different models were compared, with the observed capacity by field surveys, which verifies the performance of the proposed model.

  20. Landsat analysis of tropical forest succession employing a terrain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barringer, T. H.; Robinson, V. B.; Coiner, J. C.; Bruce, R. C.

    1980-01-01

    Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data have yielded a dual classification of rain forest and shadow in an analysis of a semi-deciduous forest on Mindonoro Island, Philippines. Both a spatial terrain model, using a fifth side polynomial trend surface analysis for quantitatively estimating the general spatial variation in the data set, and a spectral terrain model, based on the MSS data, have been set up. A discriminant analysis, using both sets of data, has suggested that shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral regions and can therefore be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data.

  1. Mathematical model of 137Cs dynamics in the deciduous forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mamikhin, S.V.; Klyashtorin, A.L.

    1999-01-01

    A mathematical model of 137 Cs behaviour in the forest ecosystem is presented. The behaviour of this radionuclide is assumed to obey the same regularities as the behaviour of its stable chemical analogue, potassium. Radionuclide dynamics are considered in parallel with the dynamics of the phytomass. Radionuclides contained in the vegetation are pooled into two basic compartments: external and internal contamination, with separate analysis of each. The model was verified using the data obtained in the 30-km zone of the Chernobyl NPP in 1986-1994. The algorithm described was found to be the most efficient in terms of 137 Cs behaviour in the forest environments

  2. Efficient Computation of Info-Gap Robustness for Finite Element Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stull, Christopher J.; Hemez, Francois M.; Williams, Brian J.

    2012-01-01

    A recent research effort at LANL proposed info-gap decision theory as a framework by which to measure the predictive maturity of numerical models. Info-gap theory explores the trade-offs between accuracy, that is, the extent to which predictions reproduce the physical measurements, and robustness, that is, the extent to which predictions are insensitive to modeling assumptions. Both accuracy and robustness are necessary to demonstrate predictive maturity. However, conducting an info-gap analysis can present a formidable challenge, from the standpoint of the required computational resources. This is because a robustness function requires the resolution of multiple optimization problems. This report offers an alternative, adjoint methodology to assess the info-gap robustness of Ax = b-like numerical models solved for a solution x. Two situations that can arise in structural analysis and design are briefly described and contextualized within the info-gap decision theory framework. The treatments of the info-gap problems, using the adjoint methodology are outlined in detail, and the latter problem is solved for four separate finite element models. As compared to statistical sampling, the proposed methodology offers highly accurate approximations of info-gap robustness functions for the finite element models considered in the report, at a small fraction of the computational cost. It is noted that this report considers only linear systems; a natural follow-on study would extend the methodologies described herein to include nonlinear systems.

  3. Soil Quality Index Determination Models for Restinga Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonilha, R. M.; Casagrande, J. C.; Soares, R. M.

    2012-04-01

    The Restinga Forest is a set of plant communities in mosaic, determined by the characteristics of their substrates as a result of depositional processes and ages. In this complex mosaic are the physiognomies of restinga forests of high-stage regeneration (high restinga) and middle stage of regeneration (low restinga), each with its plant characteristics that differentiate them. Located on the coastal plains of the Brazilian coast, suffering internal influences both the continental slopes, as well as from the sea. Its soils come from the Quaternary and are subject to constant deposition of sediments. The climate in the coastal type is tropical (Köppen). This work was conducted in four locations: (1) Anchieta Island, Ubatuba, (2) Juréia-Itatins Ecological Station, Iguape, (3) Vila das Pedrinhas, Comprida Island; and (4) Cardoso Island, Cananeia. The soil samples were collect at a depths of 0 to 5, 0-10, 0-20, 20-40 and 40 to 60cm for the chemical and physical analysis. Were studied the additive and pondering additive models to evaluate soil quality. It was concluded: a) the comparative additive model produces quantitative results and the pondering additive model quantitative results; b) as the pondering additive model, the values of Soil Quality Index (SQI) for soils under forest of restinga are low and realistic, demonstrating the small plant biomass production potential of these soils, as well as their low resilience; c) the values of SQI similar to areas with and without restinga forest give quantitative demonstration of the restinga be considered as soil phase; d) restinga forest, probably, is maintained solely by the cycling of nutrients in a closed nutrient cycling; e) for the determination of IQS for soils under restinga vegetation the use of routine chemical analysis is adequate. Keywords: Model, restinga forest, Soil Quality Index (SQI).

  4. Forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melin, J.

    1997-01-01

    Forests have the capacity to trap and retain radionuclides for a substantial period of time. The dynamic behaviour of nutrients, pollution and radionuclides in forests is complex. The rotation period of a forest stand in the Nordic countries is about 100 years, whilst the time for decomposition of organic material in a forest environment can be several hundred years. This means that any countermeasure applied in the forest environment must have an effect for several decades, or be reapplied continuously for long periods of time. To mitigate the detrimental effect of a contaminated forest environment on man, and to minimise the economic loss in trade of contaminated forest products, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms of transfer of radionuclides through the forest environment. It must also be stressed that any countermeasure applied in the forest environment must be evaluated with respect to long, as well as short term, negative effects, before any decision about remedial action is taken. Of the radionuclides studied in forests in the past, radiocaesium has been the main contributor to dose to man. In this document, only radiocaesium will be discussed since data on the impact of other radionuclides on man are too scarce for a proper evaluation. (EG)

  5. DRAINMOD-FOREST: Integrated Modeling of Hydrology, Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics, and Plant Growth for Drained Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Shiying; Youssef, Mohamed A; Skaggs, R Wayne; Amatya, Devendra M; Chescheir, G M

    2012-01-01

    We present a hybrid and stand-level forest ecosystem model, DRAINMOD-FOREST, for simulating the hydrology, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics, and tree growth for drained forest lands under common silvicultural practices. The model was developed by linking DRAINMOD, the hydrological model, and DRAINMOD-N II, the soil C and N dynamics model, to a forest growth model, which was adapted mainly from the 3-PG model. The forest growth model estimates net primary production, C allocation, and litterfall using physiology-based methods regulated by air temperature, water deficit, stand age, and soil N conditions. The performance of the newly developed DRAINMOD-FOREST model was evaluated using a long-term (21-yr) data set collected from an artificially drained loblolly pine ( L.) plantation in eastern North Carolina, USA. Results indicated that the DRAINMOD-FOREST accurately predicted annual, monthly, and daily drainage, as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of 0.93, 0.87, and 0.75, respectively. The model also predicted annual net primary productivity and dynamics of leaf area index reasonably well. Predicted temporal changes in the organic matter pool on the forest floor and in forest soil were reasonable compared to published literature. Both predicted annual and monthly nitrate export were in good agreement with field measurements, as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.89 and 0.79 for annual and monthly predictions, respectively. This application of DRAINMOD-FOREST demonstrated its capability for predicting hydrology and C and N dynamics in drained forests under limited silvicultural practices. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  6. Forecasting forest development through modeling based on the legacy of forest structure over the past 43 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baskent, E. Z.; Celik, D. A.

    2013-09-01

    Aim of study: Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires comprehensive coverage of data to reflect both the historical legacy and the future development of forests. This study focuses on analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of forests over the past 43 years to help better forecast the future development of forest under various management strategies. Area of study: The area is situated in Karaisalt district of Adana city in the southeastern corner of Turkey. Material and methods: The historical pattern from 1969 to 2012 was assessed with digital forest cover type maps, produced with high resolution aerial photo interpretation using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The forest development over the next 120 years was forecasted using ecosystem-based multiple use forest management model (ETCAP) to understand the cause-effect relationships under various management strategies. Main results: The result showed that over the past 43 years while total forest areas decreased about 1,194 ha (4%), the productive forest areas increased about 5,397 ha (18%) with a decrease of degraded forest (5,824 ha, 20%) and increase of maquis areas (2,212 ha, 7%).The forecast of forest development under traditional management strategy resulted in an unsustainable forest due to broken initial age class structure, yet generated more total harvest (11%) due to 88% relaxing of even timber flow constraint. While more volume could be harvested under traditional management conditions, the sustainability of future forest is significantly jeopardized. Research highlights: This result trongly implies that it is essential adopting modeling techniques to understand forest dynamics and forecast the future development comprehensively. (Author)

  7. A Thin Lens Model for Charged-Particle RF Accelerating Gaps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, Christopher K. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-07-01

    Presented is a thin-lens model for an RF accelerating gap that considers general axial fields without energy dependence or other a priori assumptions. Both the cosine and sine transit time factors (i.e., Fourier transforms) are required plus two additional functions; the Hilbert transforms the transit-time factors. The combination yields a complex-valued Hamiltonian rotating in the complex plane with synchronous phase. Using Hamiltonians the phase and energy gains are computed independently in the pre-gap and post-gap regions then aligned using the asymptotic values of wave number. Derivations of these results are outlined, examples are shown, and simulations with the model are presented.

  8. Modeling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R. W. A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V. K.; Melton, J. R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2014-05-01

    Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model (Lund Potsdam Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) was adapted to simulate present-day potential vegetation as a baseline for climate change impact assessments in the evergreen and deciduous forests of Bolivia. Results were compared to biomass measurements (819 plots) and remote sensing data. Using regional parameter values for allometric relations, specific leaf area, wood density, and disturbance interval, a realistic transition from the evergreen Amazon to the deciduous dry forest was simulated. This transition coincided with threshold values for precipitation (1400 mm yr-1) and water deficit (i.e., potential evapotranspiration minus precipitation) (-830 mm yr-1), beyond which leaf abscission became a competitive advantage. Significant correlations were found between modeled and observed values of seasonal leaf abscission (R2 = 0.6, p days. Decreasing rainfall trends were simulated to reduce GPP in the Amazon. The current model setup provides a baseline for assessing the potential impacts of climate change in the transition zone from wet to dry tropical forests in Bolivia.

  9. Simulation of Forest Cover Dynamics for Eastern Eurasian Boreal Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugart, H. H.; Yan, X.; Zhang, N.; Isaev, A. S.; Shuman, J. K.

    2006-12-01

    We are developing and testing a boreal zone forest dynamics model capable of simulating the forest cover dynamics of the Eurasian boreal forest, a major biospheric ecosystem with potentially large roles in the planetary carbon cycle and in the feedback between terrestrial surface and the atmosphere. In appreciating the role of this region in the coupling between atmosphere and terrestrial surface, on must understand the interactions between CO2 source/sink relationships (associated with growing or clearing forests) and the albedo effects (from changes in terrestrial surface cover). There is some evidence that in the Eurasian Boreal zone, the Carbon budget effects from forest change may oppose the albedo changes. This creates complex feedbacks between surface and atmosphere and motivates the need for a forest dynamics model that simultaneous represents forest vegetation and carbon storage and release. A forest dynamics model applied to Eastern Eurasia, FAREAST, has been tested using three types of information: 1. Direct species composition comparisons between simulated and observed mature forests at the same locations; 2. Forest type comparisons between simulated and observed forests along altitudinal gradients of several different mountains; 3. Comparison with forest stands in different succession stages of simulated forests. Model comparisons with independent data indicate the FAREAST model is capable of representing many of the broad features of the forests of Northeastern China. After model validation in the Northeast China region, model applications were developed for the forests of the Russian Far East. Continental-scale forest cover can be simulated to a relatively realistic degree using a forest gap model with standard representations of individual-plant processes. It appears that such a model, validated relatively locally in this case, in Northeastern China, can then be applied over a much larger region and under conditions of climatic change.

  10. Application of Gap Model in the Researches of Hotel Services Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Blešić

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents the research results of the hotel services quality by applying Gap model and SERVQUAL questionnaire. The research was conducted in five health spa centers in the West Morava river valley region during August and September 2008. The reach is aimed at testing of Gap model, i.e. identification of exceptions when the hotel services quality in the observed sample is concerned.

  11. EXPLAINING FOREST COMPOSITION AND BIOMASS ACROSS MULTIPLE BIOGEOGRAPHIC REGIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Current scientific concerns regarding the impacts of global change include the responses of forest composition and biomass to rapid changes in climate, and forest gap models, have often been used to address this issue. These models reflect the concept that forest composition and...

  12. Modeling and analysis of mover gaps in tubular moving-magnet linear oscillating motors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuesong LUO

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available A tubular moving-magnet linear oscillating motor (TMMLOM has merits of high efficiency and excellent dynamic capability. To enhance the thrust performance, quasi-Halbach permanent magnet (PM arrays are arranged on its mover in the application of a linear electro-hydrostatic actuator in more electric aircraft. The arrays are assembled by several individual segments, which lead to gaps between them inevitably. To investigate the effects of the gaps on the radial magnetic flux density and the machine thrust in this paper, an analytical model is built considering both axial and radial gaps. The model is validated by finite element simulations and experimental results. Distributions of the magnetic flux are described in condition of different sizes of radial and axial gaps. Besides, the output force is also discussed in normal and end windings. Finally, the model has demonstrated that both kinds of gaps have a negative effect on the thrust, and the linear motor is more sensitive to radial ones. Keywords: Air-gap flux density, Linear motor, Mover gaps, Quasi-Halbach array, Thrust output, Tubular moving-magnet linear oscillating motor (TMMLOM

  13. Modelling atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, D.; Smolander, S.; Sogachev, Andrey

    2011-01-01

    We have modelled the total atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest and investigated the individual contributions from gas phase inorganic species, isoprene, monoterpenes, and methane along with other important VOCs. Daily and seasonal variation in OH-reactivity for the year 2008 was examined...

  14. An ecosystem model for tropical forest disturbance and selective logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maoyi Huang; Gregory P. Asner; Michael Keller; Joseph A. Berry

    2008-01-01

    [1] A new three-dimensional version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (CASA-3D) was developed to simulate regional carbon cycling in tropical forest ecosystems after disturbances such as logging. CASA-3D has the following new features: (1) an alternative approach for calculating absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) using new...

  15. Modeling disturbance and succession in forest landscapes using LANDIS: introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian R. Sturtevant; Eric J. Gustafson; Hong S. He

    2004-01-01

    Modeling forest landscape change is challenging because it involves the interaction of a variety of factors and processes, such as climate, succession, disturbance, and management. These processes occur at various spatial and temporal scales, and the interactions can be complex on heterogeneous landscapes. Because controlled field experiments designed to investigate...

  16. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  17. An enhanced forest classification scheme for modeling vegetation-climate interactions based on national forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majasalmi, Titta; Eisner, Stephanie; Astrup, Rasmus; Fridman, Jonas; Bright, Ryan M.

    2018-01-01

    Forest management affects the distribution of tree species and the age class of a forest, shaping its overall structure and functioning and in turn the surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass, energy, and momentum. In order to attribute climate effects to anthropogenic activities like forest management, good accounts of forest structure are necessary. Here, using Fennoscandia as a case study, we make use of Fennoscandic National Forest Inventory (NFI) data to systematically classify forest cover into groups of similar aboveground forest structure. An enhanced forest classification scheme and related lookup table (LUT) of key forest structural attributes (i.e., maximum growing season leaf area index (LAImax), basal-area-weighted mean tree height, tree crown length, and total stem volume) was developed, and the classification was applied for multisource NFI (MS-NFI) maps from Norway, Sweden, and Finland. To provide a complete surface representation, our product was integrated with the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (ESA CCI LC) map of present day land cover (v.2.0.7). Comparison of the ESA LC and our enhanced LC products (https://doi.org/10.21350/7zZEy5w3) showed that forest extent notably (κ = 0.55, accuracy 0.64) differed between the two products. To demonstrate the potential of our enhanced LC product to improve the description of the maximum growing season LAI (LAImax) of managed forests in Fennoscandia, we compared our LAImax map with reference LAImax maps created using the ESA LC product (and related cross-walking table) and PFT-dependent LAImax values used in three leading land models. Comparison of the LAImax maps showed that our product provides a spatially more realistic description of LAImax in managed Fennoscandian forests compared to reference maps. This study presents an approach to account for the transient nature of forest structural attributes due to human intervention in different land models.

  18. Exploring Digital Surface Models from Nine Different Sensors for Forest Monitoring and Change Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaojiao Tian

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Digital surface models (DSMs derived from spaceborne and airborne sensors enable the monitoring of the vertical structures for forests in large areas. Nevertheless, due to the lack of an objective performance assessment for this task, it is difficult to select the most appropriate data source for DSM generation. In order to fill this gap, this paper performs change detection analysis including forest decrease and tree growth. The accuracy of the DSMs is evaluated by comparison with measured tree heights from inventory plots (field data. In addition, the DSMs are compared with LiDAR data to perform a pixel-wise quality assessment. DSMs from four different satellite stereo sensors (ALOS/PRISM, Cartosat-1, RapidEye and WorldView-2, one satellite InSAR sensor (TanDEM-X, two aerial stereo camera systems (HRSC and UltraCam and two airborne laser scanning datasets with different point densities are adopted for the comparison. The case study is a complex central European temperate forest close to Traunstein in Bavaria, Germany. As a major experimental result, the quality of the DSM is found to be robust to variations in image resolution, especially when the forest density is high. The forest decrease results confirm that besides aerial photogrammetry data, very high resolution satellite data, such as WorldView-2, can deliver results with comparable quality as the ones derived from LiDAR, followed by TanDEM-X and Cartosat DSMs. The quality of the DSMs derived from ALOS and Rapid-Eye data is lower, but the main changes are still correctly highlighted. Moreover, the vertical tree growth and their relationship with tree height are analyzed. The major tree height in the study site is between 15 and 30 m and the periodic annual increments (PAIs are in the range of 0.30–0.50 m.

  19. City Logistics Modeling Efforts : Trends and Gaps - A Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anand, N.R.; Quak, H.J.; Van Duin, J.H.R.; Tavasszy, L.A.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we present a review of city logistics modeling efforts reported in the literature for urban freight analysis. The review framework takes into account the diversity and complexity found in the present-day city logistics practice. Next, it covers the different aspects in the modeling

  20. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM): Performance Review and Gap Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a widely used tool for urban drainage design and planning. Hundreds of peer-reviewed articles and conference proceedings have been written describing applications of SWMM. This review focused on collecting information on model performanc...

  1. SAR Observation and Modeling of Gap Winds in the Prince William Sound of Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Haibo; Olsson, Peter Q; Volz, Karl

    2008-08-22

    Alaska's Prince William Sound (PWS) is a unique locale tending to have strong gap winds, especially in the winter season. To characterize and understand these strong surface winds, which have great impacts on the local marine and aviation activities, the surface wind retrieval from the Synthetic Aperture Radar data (SAR-wind) is combined with a numerical mesoscale model. Helped with the SAR-wind observations, the mesoscale model is used to study cases of strong winds and relatively weak winds to depict the nature of these winds, including the area of extent and possible causes of the wind regimes. The gap winds from the Wells Passage and the Valdez Arm are the most dominant gap winds in PWS. Though the Valdez Arm is north-south trending and Wells Passage is east-west oriented, gap winds often develop simultaneously in these two places when a low pressure system is present in the Northern Gulf of Alaska. These two gap winds often converge at the center of PWS and extend further out of the Sound through the Hinchinbrook Entrance. The pressure gradients imposed over these areas are the main driving forces for these gap winds. Additionally, the drainage from the upper stream glaciers and the blocking effect of the banks of the Valdez Arm probably play an important role in enhancing the gap wind.

  2. SAR Observation and Modeling of Gap Winds in the Prince William Sound of Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Volz

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Alaska’s Prince William Sound (PWS is a unique locale tending to have strong gap winds, especially in the winter season. To characterize and understand these strong surface winds, which have great impacts on the local marine and aviation activities, the surface wind retrieval from the Synthetic Aperture Radar data (SAR-wind is combined with a numerical mesoscale model. Helped with the SAR-wind observations, the mesoscale model is used to study cases of strong winds and relatively weak winds to depict the nature of these winds, including the area of extent and possible causes of the wind regimes. The gap winds from the Wells Passage and the Valdez Arm are the most dominant gap winds in PWS. Though the Valdez Arm is north-south trending and Wells Passage is east-west oriented, gap winds often develop simultaneously in these two places when a low pressure system is present in the Northern Gulf of Alaska. These two gap winds often converge at the center of PWS and extend further out of the Sound through the Hinchinbrook Entrance. The pressure gradients imposed over these areas are the main driving forces for these gap winds. Additionally, the drainage from the upper stream glaciers and the blocking effect of the banks of the Valdez Arm probably play an important role in enhancing the gap wind.

  3. Model based optimization of driver-pickup separation for eddy current measurement of gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, G.; Morelli, J.; Krause, T. W.

    2018-04-01

    The fuel channels in CANDU® (CANada Deuterium Uranium) nuclear reactors consist of a pressure tube (PT) contained within a larger diameter calandria tube (CT). The separation between the tubes, known as the PT-CT gap, ensures PT hydride blisters, which could lead to potential cracking of the PT, do not develop. Therefore, accurate measurements are required to confirm that contact between PT and CT is not imminent. Gap measurement uses an eddy current probe. However this probe is sensitive to lift-off variations, which can adversely affect estimated gap. A validated analytical flat plate model of eddy current response to gap was used to examine the effect of driver-pickup spacing on lift-off and response to gap at a frequency of 4 kHz, which is used for in-reactor measurements. This model was compared against, and shown to have good agreement with, a COMSOL® finite element method (FEM) model. The optimum coil separation, which included the constraint of coil size, was found to be 11 mm, resulting in a phase response between lift-off and response to change in gap of 66°. This work demonstrates the advantages of using analytical models for optimizing coil designs for measurement of parameters that may negatively influence the outcome of an inspection measurement.

  4. Modeling Plasma Formation in a Micro-gap at Microwave Frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Arthur; Remillard, Stephen

    2013-03-01

    In the presence of a strong electric field, gas molecules become ionized, forming a plasma. The study of this dielectric breakdown at microwave frequency has important applications in improving the operation of radio frequency (RF) devices, where the high electric fields present in small gaps can easily ionize gases like air. A cone and tuner resonant structure was used to induce breakdown of diatomic Nitrogen in adjustable micro-gaps ranging from 13 to 1,156 μm. The electric field for plasma formation exhibited strong pressure dependence in the larger gap sizes, as predicted by previous theoretical and experimental work. Pressure is proportional to the frequency of collision between electrons and molecules, which increases with pressure when the gap is large, but levels off in the micro-gap region. A separate model of the breakdown electric field based on the characteristic diffusion length of the plasma also fit the data poorly for these smaller gap sizes. This may be explained by a hypothesis that dielectric breakdown at and below the 100 μm gap size occurs outside the gap, an argument that is supported by the observation of very high breakdown threshold electric fields in this region. Optical emissions revealed that vibrational and rotational molecular transitions of the first positive electronic system are suppressed in micro-gaps, indicating that transitions into the molecular ground state do not occur in micro-gap plasmas. Acknowledgements: National Science Foundation under NSF-REU Grant No. PHY/DMR-1004811, the Provost's Office of Hope College, and the Hope College Division of Natural and Applied Sciences.

  5. Modelling nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems; Modellering av naeringssyklus i skogoekosystemer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kvindesland, Sheila H.S.B.

    1997-12-31

    Acid deposition`s threat to fresh water and forest environments became an issue in the late 1960s. Acid deposition and forest nutrient cycling then began to be researched in greater co-operation. This thesis studies nutrient cycling processes in Norway spruce forests, emphasizing the effects on soil chemical properties, soil solution chemistry and streamwater chemistry. It investigates the effects of different aged stands on nutrient cycling and sets up nutrient budgets of the base cations and nitrogen at two sites in Norway. It also selects, documents, calibrates, tests and improves nutrient cycling models for use in Norwegian forests. 84 refs., 44 figs., 46 tabs.

  6. Model for estimating air pollutant uptake by forests: calculation of forest absorption of sulfur dioxide from dispersed sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, C.E. Jr.; Sinclair, T.R.; Knoerr, K.R.

    1975-01-01

    The computer model presented in this paper is designed to estimate the uptake of air pollutants by forests. The model utilizes submodels to describe atmospheric diffusion immediately above and within the canopy, and into the sink areas within or on the trees. The program implementing the model is general and can be used with only minor changes for any gaseous pollutant. To illustrate the utility of the model, estimates are made of the sink strength of forests for sulfur dioxide. The results agree with experimentally derived estimates of sulfur dioxide uptake in crops and forest trees. (auth)

  7. Improved gap conductance model for the TRAC code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatch, S.W.; Mandell, D.A.

    1980-01-01

    The purpose of the present work, as indicated earlier, is to improve the present constant fuel clad spacing in TRAC-P1A without significantly increasing the computer costs. It is realized that the simple model proposed may not be accurate enough for some cases, but for the initial calculations made the DELTAR model improves the predictions over the constant Δr results of TRAC-P1A and the additional computing costs are negligible

  8. Narrowing the gap between network models and real complex systems

    OpenAIRE

    Viamontes Esquivel, Alcides

    2014-01-01

    Simple network models that focus only on graph topology or, at best, basic interactions are often insufficient to capture all the aspects of a dynamic complex system. In this thesis, I explore those limitations, and some concrete methods of resolving them. I argue that, in order to succeed at interpreting and influencing complex systems, we need to take into account  slightly more complex parts, interactions and information flows in our models.This thesis supports that affirmation with five a...

  9. Modeling impact damper in building frames using GAP element

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Mehdi Zahrai

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Main effective factor in impact dampers to control vibration is to create disruption in structural oscillation amplitude using small forces induced by auxiliary masses to reduce strong vibrations. So far, modeling of the impact damper has been conducted solely through MATLAB software. Naturally, the functional aspects of this software are limited in research and development aspects compared to the common programs such as SAP2000 and ETABS. In this paper, a Single Degree of Freedom System, SDOF, is first modeled under harmonic loading with maximum amplitude of 0.4g in SAP2000 program. Then, the results are compared with numerical model. In this way, the proposed model is validated and the SDOF system equipped with an impact damper is investigated under the Kobe and Northridge earthquake records using SAP2000 model. Based on obtained results, the system equipped with an impact damper under the Kobe and Northridge earthquakes for structures considered in this study would have better seismic performance in which maximum displacements are reduced 6% and 33% respectively. Finally, impact dampers are modeled in a 4-story building structure with concentric bracing leading to 12% reduction in story drifts.

  10. An alternative model for the origin of gaps in circumstellar disks

    OpenAIRE

    Vorobyov, Eduard I.; Regaly, Zsolt; Guedel, Manuel; Lin, D. N. C.

    2016-01-01

    Motivated by recent observational and numerical studies suggesting that collapsing protostellar cores may be replenished from the local environment, we explore the evolution of protostellar cores submerged in the external counter-rotating environment. These models predict the formation of counter-rotating disks with a deep gap in the gas surface density separating the inner disk (corotating with the star) and the outer counter-rotating disk. The properties of these gaps are compared to those ...

  11. Demonstrating the Uneven Importance of Fine-Scale Forest Structure on Snow Distributions using High Resolution Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broxton, P. D.; Harpold, A. A.; van Leeuwen, W.; Biederman, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    Quantifying the amount of snow in forested mountainous environments, as well as how it may change due to warming and forest disturbance, is critical given its importance for water supply and ecosystem health. Forest canopies affect snow accumulation and ablation in ways that are difficult to observe and model. Furthermore, fine-scale forest structure can accentuate or diminish the effects of forest-snow interactions. Despite decades of research demonstrating the importance of fine-scale forest structure (e.g. canopy edges and gaps) on snow, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of where and when forest structure has the largest impact on snowpack mass and energy budgets. Here, we use a hyper-resolution (1 meter spatial resolution) mass and energy balance snow model called the Snow Physics and Laser Mapping (SnowPALM) model along with LIDAR-derived forest structure to determine where spatial variability of fine-scale forest structure has the largest influence on large scale mass and energy budgets. SnowPALM was set up and calibrated at sites representing diverse climates in New Mexico, Arizona, and California. Then, we compared simulations at different model resolutions (i.e. 1, 10, and 100 m) to elucidate the effects of including versus not including information about fine scale canopy structure. These experiments were repeated for different prescribed topographies (i.e. flat, 30% slope north, and south-facing) at each site. Higher resolution simulations had more snow at lower canopy cover, with the opposite being true at high canopy cover. Furthermore, there is considerable scatter, indicating that different canopy arrangements can lead to different amounts of snow, even when the overall canopy coverage is the same. This modeling is contributing to the development of a high resolution machine learning algorithm called the Snow Water Artificial Network (SWANN) model to generate predictions of snow distributions over much larger domains, which has implications

  12. Forest height estimation from mountain forest areas using general model-based decomposition for polarimetric interferometric synthetic aperture radar images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minh, Nghia Pham; Zou, Bin; Cai, Hongjun; Wang, Chengyi

    2014-01-01

    The estimation of forest parameters over mountain forest areas using polarimetric interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PolInSAR) images is one of the greatest interests in remote sensing applications. For mountain forest areas, scattering mechanisms are strongly affected by the ground topography variations. Most of the previous studies in modeling microwave backscattering signatures of forest area have been carried out over relatively flat areas. Therefore, a new algorithm for the forest height estimation from mountain forest areas using the general model-based decomposition (GMBD) for PolInSAR image is proposed. This algorithm enables the retrieval of not only the forest parameters, but also the magnitude associated with each mechanism. In addition, general double- and single-bounce scattering models are proposed to fit for the cross-polarization and off-diagonal term by separating their independent orientation angle, which remains unachieved in the previous model-based decompositions. The efficiency of the proposed approach is demonstrated with simulated data from PolSARProSim software and ALOS-PALSAR spaceborne PolInSAR datasets over the Kalimantan areas, Indonesia. Experimental results indicate that forest height could be effectively estimated by GMBD.

  13. Impacts of Tariff and Non-tariff Trade Barriers on Global Forest Products Trade: An Application of the Global Forest Products Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, L.; Bogdanski, B.; Stennes, B.; Kooten, van G.C.

    2010-01-01

    Although there has been considerable analysis on the effects of trade measures on forest product markets, these have tended to focus on tariffs. There is growing concern about the impact of non-tariff trade measures on the global forest product sector. The objective of this study is to fill a gap

  14. The Extended Parallel Process Model: Illuminating the Gaps in Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popova, Lucy

    2012-01-01

    This article examines constructs, propositions, and assumptions of the extended parallel process model (EPPM). Review of the EPPM literature reveals that its theoretical concepts are thoroughly developed, but the theory lacks consistency in operational definitions of some of its constructs. Out of the 12 propositions of the EPPM, a few have not…

  15. Modeling of Wide-Band-Gap Semiconductor Alloys

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lambrecht, W

    1998-01-01

    .... The band structure and the total energy properties of LiGaO2 were studied in relation to its possible role as a substrate for GaN growth and as a model system for cation ordering on wurtzite based lattices...

  16. Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2015 Published by John

  17. Gap conductance model validation in the TASS/SMR-S code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Sang-Jun; Yang, Soo-Hyung; Chung, Young-Jong; Bae, Kyoo-Hwan; Lee, Won-Jae

    2011-01-01

    An advanced integral pressurized water reactor, SMART (System-Integrated Modular Advanced ReacTor) has been developed by KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research and Institute). The purposes of the SMART are sea water desalination and an electricity generation. For the safety evaluation and performance analysis of the SMART, TASS/SMR-S (Transient And Setpoint Simulation/System-integrated Modular Reactor) code, has been developed. In this paper, the gap conductance model for the calculation of gap conductance has been validated by using another system code, MARS code, and experimental results. In the validation, the behaviors of fuel temperature and gap width are selected as the major parameters. According to the evaluation results, the TASS/SMR-S code predicts well the behaviors of fuel temperatures and gap width variation, compared to the MARS calculation results and experimental data. (author)

  18. Imagining Future Forests: What Models Can Learn from Field Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, E. J.; Domec, J. C.; Laviner, M. A.; Fox, T. D.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.; King, J.; Noormets, A.

    2014-12-01

    General circulation models predict that future forests in the U.S. Southeast will experience higher temperatures and more variable precipitation in the future, resulting in a moderate decrease in water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration), though considerable uncertainty in and disagreement between projections remain. The Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation Project (PINEMAP) represents an effort to understand the future of 20 million acres of planted pine forests managed by private landowners in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal states. Decades of productivity research on loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) has led to a widespread practice of mid-rotation fertilization of loblolly plantations, supplying additional nutrients as stands approach canopy closure. It remains an open question what the effects of fertilization of pine forests in this region will be in the face of periodic or persistent droughts, in terms of forest water use and its implications to other water uses downstream. Therefore, we will review key results from past ecophysiological research on the responses of loblolly pine to fertilization, elevated CO2 and water availability, as well as a recent PINEMAP field trial of fertilization and drought imposed through rainfall displacement over two growing seasons. Despite high rainfall in 2013 (1224 mm compared an average 1120 mm) and a lack of leaf area response, transpiration decreased in response to fertilization and through rainfall displacement. Treatment differences were greatest in the growing season of 2013, when transpiration was on average 13.6, 20.2 and 28.7% lower in the rainfall displacement, fertilization and combined treatment than the control (46 mm/month), respectively. We will conclude by reviewing the important lessons from this research for regional models of future forests in this region in terms of LAI, transpiration, growth and water use efficiency.

  19. Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Storck, Pascal; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2009-05-01

    The effects of forest canopies on snow accumulation and ablation processes can be very important for the hydrology of midlatitude and high-latitude areas. A mass and energy balance model for snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments was developed utilizing extensive measurements of snow interception and release in a maritime mountainous site in Oregon. The model was evaluated using 2 years of weighing lysimeter data and was able to reproduce the snow water equivalent (SWE) evolution throughout winters both beneath the canopy and in the nearby clearing, with correlations to observations ranging from 0.81 to 0.99. Additionally, the model was evaluated using measurements from a Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) field site in Canada to test the robustness of the canopy snow interception algorithm in a much different climate. Simulated SWE was relatively close to the observations for the forested sites, with discrepancies evident in some cases. Although the model formulation appeared robust for both types of climates, sensitivity to parameters such as snow roughness length and maximum interception capacity suggested the magnitude of improvements of SWE simulations that might be achieved by calibration.

  20. Mapping forest functional type in a forest-shrubland ecotone using SPOT imagery and predictive habitat distribution modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assal, Timothy J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Sibold, Jason

    2015-01-01

    The availability of land cover data at local scales is an important component in forest management and monitoring efforts. Regional land cover data seldom provide detailed information needed to support local management needs. Here we present a transferable framework to model forest cover by major plant functional type using aerial photos, multi-date Système Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) imagery, and topographic variables. We developed probability of occurrence models for deciduous broad-leaved forest and needle-leaved evergreen forest using logistic regression in the southern portion of the Wyoming Basin Ecoregion. The model outputs were combined into a synthesis map depicting deciduous and coniferous forest cover type. We evaluated the models and synthesis map using a field-validated, independent data source. Results showed strong relationships between forest cover and model variables, and the synthesis map was accurate with an overall correct classification rate of 0.87 and Cohen’s kappa value of 0.81. The results suggest our method adequately captures the functional type, size, and distribution pattern of forest cover in a spatially heterogeneous landscape.

  1. Modeling of air-gap membrane distillation process: A theoretical and experimental study

    KAUST Repository

    Alsaadi, Ahmad Salem; Ghaffour, NorEddine; Li, Junde; Gray, Stephen R.; Francis, Lijo; Maab, Husnul; Amy, Gary L.

    2013-01-01

    A one dimensional (1-D) air gap membrane distillation (AGMD) model for flat sheet type modules has been developed. This model is based on mathematical equations that describe the heat and mass transfer mechanisms of a single-stage AGMD process

  2. Filling Landsat ETM+ SLC-off gaps using a segmentation model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Susan

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present a methodology for filling Landsat Scan Line Corrector (SLC)-off gaps with same-scene spectral data guided by a segmentation model. Failure of the SLC on the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) instrument resulted in a loss of approximately 25 percent of the spectral data. The missing data span across most of the image with scan gaps varying in size from two pixels near the center of the image to 14 pixels along the east and west edges. Even with the scan gaps, the radiometric and geometric qualities of the remaining portions of the image still meet design specifications and therefore contain useful information (see http:// landsat7.usgs.gov for additional information). The U.S. Geological Survey EROS Data Center (EDC) is evaluating several techniques to fill the gaps in SLC-off data to enhance the usability of the imagery (Howard and Lacasse 2004) (PE&RS, August 2004). The method presented here uses a segmentation model approach that allows for same-scene spectral data to be used to fill the gaps. The segment model is generated from a complete satellite image with no missing spectral data (e.g., Landsat 5, Landsat 7 SLCon, SPOT). The model is overlaid on the Landsat SLC-off image, and the missing data within the gaps are then estimated using SLC-off spectral data that intersect the segment boundary. A major advantage of this approach is that the gaps are filled using spectral data derived from the same SLC-off satellite image.

  3. Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

    2014-05-01

    Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

  4. Exponential model normalization for electrical capacitance tomography with external electrodes under gap permittivity conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baidillah, Marlin R; Takei, Masahiro

    2017-01-01

    A nonlinear normalization model which is called exponential model for electrical capacitance tomography (ECT) with external electrodes under gap permittivity conditions has been developed. The exponential model normalization is proposed based on the inherently nonlinear relationship characteristic between the mixture permittivity and the measured capacitance due to the gap permittivity of inner wall. The parameters of exponential equation are derived by using an exponential fitting curve based on the simulation and a scaling function is added to adjust the experiment system condition. The exponential model normalization was applied to two dimensional low and high contrast dielectric distribution phantoms by using simulation and experimental studies. The proposed normalization model has been compared with other normalization models i.e. Parallel, Series, Maxwell and Böttcher models. Based on the comparison of image reconstruction results, the exponential model is reliable to predict the nonlinear normalization of measured capacitance in term of low and high contrast dielectric distribution. (paper)

  5. Constraining Gamma-Ray Pulsar Gap Models with a Simulated Pulsar Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierbattista, Marco; Grenier, I. A.; Harding, A. K.; Gonthier, P. L.

    2012-01-01

    With the large sample of young gamma-ray pulsars discovered by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), population synthesis has become a powerful tool for comparing their collective properties with model predictions. We synthesised a pulsar population based on a radio emission model and four gamma-ray gap models (Polar Cap, Slot Gap, Outer Gap, and One Pole Caustic). Applying gamma-ray and radio visibility criteria, we normalise the simulation to the number of detected radio pulsars by a select group of ten radio surveys. The luminosity and the wide beams from the outer gaps can easily account for the number of Fermi detections in 2 years of observations. The wide slot-gap beam requires an increase by a factor of 10 of the predicted luminosity to produce a reasonable number of gamma-ray pulsars. Such large increases in the luminosity may be accommodated by implementing offset polar caps. The narrow polar-cap beams contribute at most only a handful of LAT pulsars. Using standard distributions in birth location and pulsar spin-down power (E), we skew the initial magnetic field and period distributions in a an attempt to account for the high E Fermi pulsars. While we compromise the agreement between simulated and detected distributions of radio pulsars, the simulations fail to reproduce the LAT findings: all models under-predict the number of LAT pulsars with high E , and they cannot explain the high probability of detecting both the radio and gamma-ray beams at high E. The beaming factor remains close to 1.0 over 4 decades in E evolution for the slot gap whereas it significantly decreases with increasing age for the outer gaps. The evolution of the enhanced slot-gap luminosity with E is compatible with the large dispersion of gamma-ray luminosity seen in the LAT data. The stronger evolution predicted for the outer gap, which is linked to the polar cap heating by the return current, is apparently not supported by the LAT data. The LAT sample of gamma-ray pulsars

  6. Probabilistic risk models for multiple disturbances: an example of forest insects and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

    2010-01-01

    Building probabilistic risk models for highly random forest disturbances like wildfire and forest insect outbreaks is a challenging. Modeling the interactions among natural disturbances is even more difficult. In the case of wildfire and forest insects, we looked at the probability of a large fire given an insect outbreak and also the incidence of insect outbreaks...

  7. Modeling carbon stocks in a secondary tropical dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Richard A. Birdsey; Kristofer D. Johnson; Juan Manuel Dupuy; Jose Luis Hernandez-Stefanoni; Karen. Richardson

    2014-01-01

    The carbon balance of secondary dry tropical forests of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is sensitive to human and natural disturbances and climate change. The spatially explicit process model Forest-DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) was used to estimate forest carbon dynamics in this region, including the effects of disturbance on carbon stocks. Model evaluation using...

  8. Decomposing the uncertainty in climate impact projections of Dynamic Vegetation Models: a test with the forest models LANDCLIM and FORCLIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cailleret, Maxime; Snell, Rebecca; von Waldow, Harald; Kotlarski, Sven; Bugmann, Harald

    2015-04-01

    Different levels of uncertainty should be considered in climate impact projections by Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs), particularly when it comes to managing climate risks. Such information is useful to detect the key processes and uncertainties in the climate model - impact model chain and may be used to support recommendations for future improvements in the simulation of both climate and biological systems. In addition, determining which uncertainty source is dominant is an important aspect to recognize the limitations of climate impact projections by a multi-model ensemble mean approach. However, to date, few studies have clarified how each uncertainty source (baseline climate data, greenhouse gas emission scenario, climate model, and DVM) affects the projection of ecosystem properties. Focusing on one greenhouse gas emission scenario, we assessed the uncertainty in the projections of a forest landscape model (LANDCLIM) and a stand-scale forest gap model (FORCLIM) that is caused by linking climate data with an impact model. LANDCLIM was used to assess the uncertainty in future landscape properties of the Visp valley in Switzerland that is due to (i) the use of different 'baseline' climate data (gridded data vs. data from weather stations), and (ii) differences in climate projections among 10 GCM-RCM chains. This latter point was also considered for the projections of future forest properties by FORCLIM at several sites along an environmental gradient in Switzerland (14 GCM-RCM chains), for which we also quantified the uncertainty caused by (iii) the model chain specific statistical properties of the climate time-series, and (iv) the stochasticity of the demographic processes included in the model, e.g., the annual number of saplings that establish, or tree mortality. Using methods of variance decomposition analysis, we found that (i) The use of different baseline climate data strongly impacts the prediction of forest properties at the lowest and highest, but

  9. Forest food chain and dose model (FDMF) for RODOS. Model description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rantavaara, A.; Vetikko, V.; Calmon, P.; Wendt, J.

    2001-12-01

    In the early phase of a large-scale fallout situation, both access to forests and the use of wild foods may need temporal restrictions. In a later phase wild foods and internal doses received through them may still need surveillance of radioactivity. After accidental fallout a major source of external radiation are the ground deposits, and in forests contaminated overstorey can also be a considerable source. For consideration of dose pathways related to forests during a nuclear emergency the Forest Food Chain and Dose Model (FDMF) was developed. It is an integral part of RODOS, a real-time, on-line decision support system for off-site emergency management in Europe. The forest module FDMF receives radionuclide concentrations in air as input from the air dispersion model of RODOS, and calculates activities deposited on various parts of the forest. The model simulates the transfer of radionuclides in the forest ecosystem. It quantifies the dynamic changes for three types of forests, typical of a region. The model gives the contamination of forest products and dose rate for external radiation as a function of time. External and internal radiation doses for various population groups according to their stay in forests and their use of forest products can be assessed since the first year until the 50 th year after the fallout event. Doses are calculated for children and adults representing the public, and ingestion doses also for pickers of berries and mushrooms, and hunters. Forest workers are a special group due to their potentially enhanced external dose from outdoor working. The model results can be shown as spatial distributions on top of geographical maps. Many parameters in the FDMF database are regional and have to be adjusted when the model is adapted for local conditions or new radioecological regions. Long-term predictions will be considerably improved when site-specific parameters are used. STUK developed the forest module together with IPSN (Institut de

  10. Estimating Forest fAPAR from Multispectral Landsat-8 Data Using the Invertible Forest Reflectance Model INFORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huili Yuan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation in forests (forest fAPAR from multi-spectral Landsat-8 data is investigated in this paper using a physically based radiative transfer model (Invertible Forest Reflectance Model, INFORM combined with an inversion strategy based on artificial neural nets (ANN. To derive the forest fAPAR for the Dabie mountain test site in China in 30 m spatial resolution (size approximately 3000 km2, a database of forest canopy spectral reflectances was simulated with INFORM taking into account structural variables such as leaf area index (LAI, crown coverage and stem density as well as leaf composition. To establish the relationship between forest fAPAR and the reflectance modeled by INFORM, a logarithmic relationship between LAI and fAPAR was used previously established using on-site field measurements. On this basis, predictive models between Landsat-8 reflectance and fAPAR were established using an artificial neural network. After calibrating INFORM for the test site, forty-two forest stands were used to validate the performance of the method. The results show that spectral signatures modeled by INFORM correspond reasonably well with the forest canopy reflectance spectra derived from Landsat data. Deviations increase with increasing angle between surface normal of the hilly terrain and sun incidence. The comparison of estimated and measured fAPAR (R2 = 0.47, RMSE = 0.11 demonstrates that INFORM can be inverted using neural nets to provide acceptable estimates of forest fAPAR. The accuracy of the predictions increased significantly when excluding pixels located in very steep terrain. This demonstrates that the applied topographic correction was not sufficiently accurate and should be improved for making optimum use of radiative transfer models such as INFORM.

  11. Comparison of CPI and GAP models in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a nationwide cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang Hoon; Park, Jong Sun; Kim, Song Yee; Kim, Dong Soon; Kim, Young Whan; Chung, Man Pyo; Uh, Soo Taek; Park, Choon Sik; Park, Sung Woo; Jeong, Sung Hwan; Park, Yong Bum; Lee, Hong Lyeol; Shin, Jong Wook; Lee, Eun Joo; Lee, Jin Hwa; Jegal, Yangin; Lee, Hyun Kyung; Kim, Yong Hyun; Song, Jin Woo; Park, Moo Suk

    2018-03-19

    The clinical course of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is difficult to predict, partly owing to its heterogeneity. Composite physiologic index (CPI) and gender-age-physiology (GAP) models are easy-to-use predictors of IPF progression. This study aimed to compare the predictive values of these two models. From 2003 to 2007, the Korean Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) Study Group surveyed ILD patients using the 2002 ATS/ERS criteria. A total of 832 patients with IPF were enrolled in this study. CPI was calculated as follows: 91.0 - (0.65 × %DL CO ) - [0.53 × %FVC + [0.34 × %FEV 1 . GAP stage was calculated based on gender (0-1 points), age (0-2 points), and two physiologic lung function parameters (0-5 points). The two models had similar significant predictive values for patients with IPF (p GAP for prediction of 1-, 2-, and 3-year mortality in this study. The AUC was higher for surgically diagnosed IPF patients than for clinically diagnosed patients. However, neither CPI nor GAP yielded good predictions of outcomes; the AUC was approximately 0.61~0.65. Although both CPI and GAP stage are significantly useful predictors for IPF, they have limited capability to accurately predict outcomes.

  12. Use of models in large-area forest surveys: comparing model-assisted, model-based and hybrid estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goran Stahl; Svetlana Saarela; Sebastian Schnell; Soren Holm; Johannes Breidenbach; Sean P. Healey; Paul L. Patterson; Steen Magnussen; Erik Naesset; Ronald E. McRoberts; Timothy G. Gregoire

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the development of models predicting the variables of interest in forest surveys. We present, review and compare three different estimation frameworks where...

  13. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-01-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  14. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  15. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  16. Development of CHF models for inner and outer RPV gaps in a meltdown severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, J.; Tian, W.X.; Feng, K.; Yu, H.X.; Zhang, Y.P.; Su, G.H.; Qiu, S.Z.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A CHF model was developed to predict the CHF in hemispherical narrow gap. • The computed result was validated by the test data of Park and Köhler. • An analytical CHF model was developed to predict the CHF on the outer surface of the lower head. • The predicted CHF was compared with the experimental data of ULPU-V. • Two CHF models developed for the inner and outer CHF predict the CHF well. - Abstract: During a severe accident, the core melt relocates in the lower head and a hemispherical narrow gap may appear between the crust and the lower head because of the different material expansion ratio. The existence of this gap is very important to the integrity of the lower head. Based on the counter current flow limitation (CCFL) between the vapor phase and the liquid phase, a CHF model was developed to predict the CHF in hemispherical narrow gap. The CHF model developed was validated by the test data of Park and Köhler. The effect of key parameters, including the system pressure, radius of melt, and gap size, on the CHF were investigated. And the TMI-2 accident was also calculated by using the CHF formula. Moreover, based on the interface separation model, an analytical CHF model was developed to predict the CHF on the outer surface of the lower head. The predicted CHF was compared with the experimental data of ULPU-V. It indicated that the CHF models developed for the inner and outer CHF could predict the CHF well

  17. A modeling analysis of the interaction between forest age and forest responsiveness to increasing CO2 concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirschbaum, M.U.F.

    2005-01-01

    In this study, both young forest plants and established forest stands were examined to gain insight into likely plant responses to increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), temperature and altered rainfall patterns. Forests have rotations of about 10 to 200 years, during which time anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and the associated changes in climate change can be substantial. The changes are most likely to influence the growth of established forest stands. The CenW forest growth model was used to examine the mechanisms that are responsible for the slowing of forest growth with age, including the response to increasing carbon dioxide. It was shown that inclusion of allocation shifts with tree height, individual tree mortality, changing respiration load and nutrient changes has only a small effect on the response to increasing carbon dioxide. When photosynthesis of mature trees decreases, growth response to increasing CO 2 is reduced. Since the number of interacting processes is so large, no simple and broad interaction between increased carbon dioxide and forest age were identified. It was concluded that it is not yet possible to predict the change in carbon dioxide response by forest age. 54 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs

  18. Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.

    2009-04-01

    Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and

  19. The Chemistry of Atmosphere-Forest Exchange (CAFE Model – Part 1: Model description and characterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Wolfe

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the Chemistry of Atmosphere-Forest Exchange (CAFE model, a vertically-resolved 1-D chemical transport model designed to probe the details of near-surface reactive gas exchange. CAFE integrates all key processes, including turbulent diffusion, emission, deposition and chemistry, throughout the forest canopy and mixed layer. CAFE utilizes the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM and is the first model of its kind to incorporate a suite of reactions for the oxidation of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes, providing a more comprehensive description of the oxidative chemistry occurring within and above the forest. We use CAFE to simulate a young Ponderosa pine forest in the Sierra Nevada, CA. Utilizing meteorological constraints from the BEARPEX-2007 field campaign, we assess the sensitivity of modeled fluxes to parameterizations of diffusion, laminar sublayer resistance and radiation extinction. To characterize the general chemical environment of this forest, we also present modeled mixing ratio profiles of biogenic hydrocarbons, hydrogen oxides and reactive nitrogen. The vertical profiles of these species demonstrate a range of structures and gradients that reflect the interplay of physical and chemical processes within the forest canopy, which can influence net exchange.

  20. Modeling decay rates of dead wood in a neotropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hérault, Bruno; Beauchêne, Jacques; Muller, Félix; Wagner, Fabien; Baraloto, Christopher; Blanc, Lilian; Martin, Jean-Michel

    2010-09-01

    Variation of dead wood decay rates among tropical trees remains one source of uncertainty in global models of the carbon cycle. Taking advantage of a broad forest plot network surveyed for tree mortality over a 23-year period, we measured the remaining fraction of boles from 367 dead trees from 26 neotropical species widely varying in wood density (0.23-1.24 g cm(-3)) and tree circumference at death time (31.5-272.0 cm). We modeled decay rates within a Bayesian framework assuming a first order differential equation to model the decomposition process and tested for the effects of forest management (selective logging vs. unexploited), of mode of death (standing vs. downed) and of topographical levels (bottomlands vs. hillsides vs. hilltops) on wood decay rates. The general decay model predicts the observed remaining fraction of dead wood (R2 = 60%) with only two biological predictors: tree circumference at death time and wood specific density. Neither selective logging nor local topography had a differential effect on wood decay rates. Including the mode of death into the model revealed that standing dead trees decomposed faster than downed dead trees, but the gain of model accuracy remains rather marginal. Overall, these results suggest that the release of carbon from tropical dead trees to the atmosphere can be simply estimated using tree circumference at death time and wood density.

  1. Mapping canopy gaps in an indigenous subtropical coastal forest using high resolution WorldView-2 data

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malahlela, O

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available of subpixel treefall 565 gaps with Landsat imagery in Central Amazon. Remote Sensing of Environment 115, pp. 566 3322 – 3328. 567 568 Nelson, R., Oderwald, R., and Gregoire, T.G., 1997, Separating the ground and airborne laser 569 sampling phases...

  2. Interacting gaps model, dynamics of order book, and stock-market fluctuations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Svorenčík, A.; Slanina, František

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 57, - (2007), s. 453-462 ISSN 1434-6028 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1P04OCP10.001 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100520 Keywords : interacting gaps model * dynamics of order book * stock - market fluctuations Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.356, year: 2007

  3. Improved variational estimates for the mass gap in the 2-dimensional XY-model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patkos, A.; Hari Dass, N.D.

    1982-07-01

    The variational estimate obtained recently for the mass gap of the 2-dimensional XY-model is improved by extending the treatment to higher powers of the transfer operator. The relativistic dispersion relation for single particle states of low momentum is also verified. (Auth.)

  4. Air gap membrane distillation. 2. Model validation and hollow fibre module performance analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guijt, C.M.; Meindersma, G.W.; Reith, T.; de Haan, A.B.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper the experimental results of counter current flow air gap membrane distillation experiments are presented and compared with predictive model calculations. Measurements were carried out with a cylindrical test module containing a single hollow fibre membrane in the centre and a

  5. A model for the direct-to-indirect band-gap transition in monolayer ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. A monolayer of MoSe2 is found to be a direct band-gap semiconductor. We show, ... In order to determine appropriate basis for the tight-binding model, the Mo and Se ..... RD thanks the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research.

  6. Fit Gap Analysis – The Role of Business Process Reference Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Pajk

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Enterprise resource planning (ERP systems support solutions for standard business processes such as financial, sales, procurement and warehouse. In order to improve the understandability and efficiency of their implementation, ERP vendors have introduced reference models that describe the processes and underlying structure of an ERP system. To select and successfully implement an ERP system, the capabilities of that system have to be compared with a company’s business needs. Based on a comparison, all of the fits and gaps must be identified and further analysed. This step usually forms part of ERP implementation methodologies and is called fit gap analysis. The paper theoretically overviews methods for applying reference models and describes fit gap analysis processes in detail. The paper’s first contribution is its presentation of a fit gap analysis using standard business process modelling notation. The second contribution is the demonstration of a process-based comparison approach between a supply chain process and an ERP system process reference model. In addition to its theoretical contributions, the results can also be practically applied to projects involving the selection and implementation of ERP systems.

  7. Sequential fragmentation of Pleistocene forests in an East Africa biodiversity hotspot: chameleons as a model to track forest history.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G John Measey

    Full Text Available The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal models of speciation. Dated phylogenies have revealed complex patterns throughout EAM, so we investigated divergence times of forest fauna on four montane isolates in close proximity to determine whether forest break-up was most likely to have been simultaneous or sequential, using population genetics of a forest restricted arboreal chameleon, Kinyongia boehmei.We used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic sequence data and mutation rates from a fossil-calibrated phylogeny to estimate divergence times between montane isolates using a coalescent approach. We found that chameleons on all mountains are most likely to have diverged sequentially within the Pleistocene from 0.93-0.59 Ma (95% HPD 0.22-1.84 Ma. In addition, post-hoc tests on chameleons on the largest montane isolate suggest a population expansion ∼182 Ka.Sequential divergence is most likely to have occurred after the last of three wet periods within the arid Plio-Pleistocene era, but was not correlated with inter-montane distance. We speculate that forest connection persisted due to riparian corridors regardless of proximity, highlighting their importance in the region's historic dispersal events. The population expansion coincides with nearby volcanic activity, which may also explain the relative paucity of the Taita's endemic fauna. Our study shows that forest chameleons are an apposite group to track forest fragmentation, with the inference that forest extended between some EAM during the Pleistocene 1

  8. Fuel load modeling from mensuration attributes in temperate forests in northern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maricela Morales-Soto; Marín Pompa-Garcia

    2013-01-01

    The study of fuels is an important factor in defining the vulnerability of ecosystems to forest fires. The aim of this study was to model a dead fuel load based on forest mensuration attributes from forest management inventories. A scatter plot analysis was performed and, from explanatory trends between the variables considered, correlation analysis was carried out...

  9. Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for forest applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuhui Dun; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliot; Peter R. Robichaud; Dennis C. Flanagan; James R. Frankenberger; Robert E. Brown; Arthur C. Xu

    2009-01-01

    There has been an increasing public concern over forest stream pollution by excessive sedimentation due to natural or human disturbances. Adequate erosion simulation tools are needed for sound management of forest resources. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model has proved useful in forest applications where Hortonian flow is the major form of...

  10. Modelling and mapping the suitability of European forest formations at 1-km resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casalegno, Stefano; Amatulli, Giuseppe; Bastrup-Birk, Annemarie

    2011-01-01

    factors. Here, we used the bootstrap-aggregating machine-learning ensemble classifier Random Forest (RF) to derive a 1-km resolution European forest formation suitability map. The statistical model use as inputs more than 6,000 field data forest inventory plots and a large set of environmental variables...

  11. Modeling complex effects of multiple environmental stresses on carbon dynamics of Mid-Atlantic temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; John Hom; Kevin McCullough

    2007-01-01

    We used our GIS variant of the PnET-CN model to investigate changes of forest carbon stocks and fluxes in Mid-Atlantic temperate forests over the last century (1900-2000). Forests in this region are affected by multiple environmental changes including climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, N deposition and tropospheric ozone, and extensive land disturbances. Our...

  12. Development of a simplified fuel-cladding gap conductance model for nuclear feedback calculation in 16x16 FA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Jong Sung; Park, Chan Oh; Park, Yong Soo

    1995-01-01

    The accurate determination of the fuel-cladding gap conductance as functions of rod burnup and power level may be a key to the design and safety analysis of a reactor. The incorporation of a sophisticated gap conductance model into nuclear design code for computing thermal hydraulic feedback effect has not been implemented mainly because of computational inefficiency due to complicated behavior of gap conductance. To avoid the time-consuming iteration scheme, simplification of the gap conductance model is done for the current design model. The simplified model considers only the heat conductance contribution to the gap conductance. The simplification is made possible by direct consideration of the gap conductivity depending on the composition of constituent gases in the gap and the fuel-cladding gap size from computer simulation of representative power histories. The simplified gap conductance model is applied to the various fuel power histories and the predicted gap conductances are found to agree well with the results of the design model

  13. Behaviour of the energy gap in a model of Josephson coupled Bose-Einstein condensates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonel, A P; Links, J; Foerster, A

    2005-01-01

    In this work we investigate the energy gap between the ground state and the first excited state in a model of two single-mode Bose-Einstein condensates coupled via Josephson tunnelling. The energy gap is never zero when the tunnelling interaction is non-zero. The gap exhibits no local minimum below a threshold coupling which separates a delocalized phase from a self-trapping phase that occurs in the absence of the external potential. Above this threshold point one minimum occurs close to the Josephson regime, and a set of minima and maxima appear in the Fock regime. Expressions for the position of these minima and maxima are obtained. The connection between these minima and maxima and the dynamics for the expectation value of the relative number of particles is analysed in detail. We find that the dynamics of the system changes as the coupling crosses these points

  14. A survey of quality gap of Khoramabad medical emergency services using SERVQUAL model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    gholamreza Toushmal

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background : Awareness of perceptions and expectations of receivers of health centers services, as well as determination of gap between these two subjects can play an important role in better services rendering of these centers. Thise survey was conducted to evaluate quality of emergency centers of Khorramabad city by use of SERVQUAL model in 2012. Materials and Methods: This analytic-descriptive research was carried out on 400 people receiving services of Khorramabad emergency centers, selected using continuous sampling method. Data was gathered using standard SERVQUAL questionnaire and then analyzed by SPSS software, descriptive and inferential statistics such as Kruskal-wallis, paired T test And ANOVA. Results: The results showed that there was negative gap of quality in all five dimensions of services (sensible thing, guarantee and trust, responsibility, and empathy. The most quality gap was in empathy aspect and the least belonged to politeness and trust, and this gap among all dimensions, exception for trust, was statistically significant. But no significant statistical relation was found between age, sex and educational level and quality gap score. Conclusion: Expectation of customers in all dimensions was higher than their perceptions, and it should promote the quality of all dimensions, specially empathy. It is suggested to evaluate services quality in these centers and other centers periodically to promote their quality of services.

  15. The Three-Dimensional Velocity Distribution of Wide Gap Taylor-Couette Flow Modelled by CFD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Shina Adebayo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical investigation is conducted for the flow between two concentric cylinders with a wide gap, relevant to bearing chamber applications. This wide gap configuration has received comparatively less attention than narrow gap journal bearing type geometries. The flow in the gap between an inner rotating cylinder and an outer stationary cylinder has been modelled as an incompressible flow using an implicit finite volume RANS scheme with the realisable k-ε model. The model flow is above the critical Taylor number at which axisymmetric counterrotating Taylor vortices are formed. The tangential velocity profiles at all axial locations are different from typical journal bearing applications, where the velocity profiles are quasilinear. The predicted results led to two significant findings of impact in rotating machinery operations. Firstly, the axial variation of the tangential velocity gradient induces an axially varying shear stress, resulting in local bands of enhanced work input to the working fluid. This is likely to cause unwanted heat transfer on the surface in high torque turbomachinery applications. Secondly, the radial inflow at the axial end-wall boundaries is likely to promote the transport of debris to the junction between the end-collar and the rotating cylinder, causing the build-up of fouling in the seal.

  16. Prediction of the fuel failure following a large LOCA using modified gap heat transfer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, K.M.; Lee, N.H.; Huh, J.Y.; Seo, S.K.; Choi, J.H.

    1995-01-01

    The modified Ross and Stoute gap heat transfer model in the ELOCA.Mk5 code for CANDU safety analysis is based on a simplified thermal deformation model. A review on a series of recent experiments reveals that fuel pellets crack, relocate, and are eccentrically positioned within the sheath rather than solid concentric cylinders. In this study, more realistic offset crap conductance model is implemented in the code to estimate the fuel failure thresholds usincr the transient conditions of a 100% Reactor Outlet Header (ROH) break LOCA. Based on the offset gap conductance model, the total release of I-131 from the failed fuel elements in the core is reduced from 3876 TBq to 3283 TBq to increase margin for dose limit. (author)

  17. Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Andrew D. Kramp; Kenneth E. Skog; Do-il Yoo; V. Alaric Sample

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in domestic wood energy consumption under hypothetical future U.S. wood biomass energy policy scenarios. The U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) was created to enhance the modeling of the U.S. forest sector within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), providing a...

  18. Application of GIS to Empirical Windthrow Risk Model in Mountain Forested Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukas Krejci

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Norway spruce dominates mountain forests in Europe. Natural variations in the mountainous coniferous forests are strongly influenced by all the main components of forest and landscape dynamics: species diversity, the structure of forest stands, nutrient cycling, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services. This paper deals with an empirical windthrow risk model based on the integration of logistic regression into GIS to assess forest vulnerability to wind-disturbance in the mountain spruce forests of Šumava National Park (Czech Republic. It is an area where forest management has been the focus of international discussions by conservationists, forest managers, and stakeholders. The authors developed the empirical windthrow risk model, which involves designing an optimized data structure containing dependent and independent variables entering logistic regression. The results from the model, visualized in the form of map outputs, outline the probability of risk to forest stands from wind in the examined territory of the national park. Such an application of the empirical windthrow risk model could be used as a decision support tool for the mountain spruce forests in a study area. Future development of these models could be useful for other protected European mountain forests dominated by Norway spruce.

  19. Treefall Gap Mapping Using Sentinel-2 Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iván Barton

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Proper knowledge about resources in forest management is fundamental. One of the most important parameters of forests is their size or spatial extension. By determining the area of treefall gaps inside the compartments, a more accurate yield can be calculated and the scheduling of forestry operations could be planned better. Several field- and remote sensing-based approaches are in use for mapping but they provide only static measurements at high cost. The Earth Observation satellite mission Sentinel-2 was put in orbit as part of the Copernicus programme. With the 10-m resolution bands, it is possible to observe small-scale forestry operations like treefall gaps. The spatial extension of these gaps is often less than 200 m2, thus their detection can only be done on sub-pixel level. Due to the higher temporal resolution of Sentinel-2, multiple observations are available in a year; therefore, a time series evaluation is possible. The modelling of illumination can increase the accuracy of classification in mountainous areas. The method was tested on three deciduous forest sites in the Börzsöny Mountains in Hungary. The area evaluation produced less than 10% overestimation with the best possible solutions on the sites. The presented work shows a low-cost method for mapping treefall gaps which delivers annual information about the gap area in a deciduous forest.

  20. Forest insurance market participants’ game behavior in China: An analysis based on tripartite dynamic game model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Ma

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In forest insurance market, there are three main participants including the insurance company, the forest farmer and the government. As different participant has different benefit object, there will be a complex and dynamic game relationship among all participants. The purpose of this paper is to make the game relationship among all participants in forest insurance market clear, and then to put forward some policy suggestions on the implementation of forest insurance from the view of game theory. Design/methodology/approach: Firstly, the static game model between the insurance company and the forest farmer is set up. According to the result of static game model, it’s difficult to implement forest insurance without government. Secondly, the tripartite dynamic game model among the government, the insurance company and the forest farmer is proposed, and the equilibrium solution of tripartite dynamic game model is acquired. Finally, the behavioral characteristics of all participants are analyzed according to the equilibrium solution of tripartite dynamic game model. Findings: the government’s allowance will be an important positive factor to implement forest insurance. The loss of the insurance company, which the lower insurance premium brings, can be compensated by the allowance from the government. The more the government provides allowance, the more actively the insurance company will implement forest insurance at a low insurance premium. In this situation, the forest farmer will be more likely to purchase the forest insurance, then the scope of forest insurance implementation will expend. Originality/value: There is a complex and dynamic game relationship among all participants in forest insurance market. Based on the tripartite dynamic game model, to make the game relationship between each participant clear is conducive to the implementation of forest insurance market in China.

  1. Consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on wood and forests: An application of the Global Forest Products Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buongiorno, J.; Raunikar, R.; Zhu, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to project the consequences for the global forest sector of doubling the rate of growth of bioenergy demand relative to a base scenario, other drivers being maintained constant. The results showed that this would lead to the convergence of the price of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, raising the price of industrial roundwood by nearly 30% in 2030. The price of sawnwood and panels would be 15% higher. The price of paper would be 3% higher. Concurrently, the demand for all manufactured wood products would be lower in all countries, but the production would rise in countries with competitive advantage. The global value added in wood processing industries would be 1% lower in 2030. The forest stock would be 2% lower for the world and 4% lower for Asia. These effects varied substantially by country. ?? 2011 Department of Forest Economics, SLU Ume??, Sweden.

  2. Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingshi; Huang, Chengquan; Zhu, Zhiliang; Shi, Hua; Lu, Heng; Peng, Shikui

    2009-01-01

    Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

  3. Removal of nutrient limitations in forest gaps enhances growth rate and resistance to cavitation in subtropical canopy tree species differing in shade tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villagra, Mariana; Campanello, Paula I; Montti, Lia; Goldstein, Guillermo

    2013-03-01

    A 4-year fertilization experiment with nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) was carried out in natural gaps of a subtropical forest in northeastern Argentina. Saplings of six dominant canopy species differing in shade tolerance were grown in five control and five N + P fertilized gaps. Hydraulic architectural traits such as wood density, the leaf area to sapwood area ratio (LA : SA), vulnerability to cavitation (P50) and specific and leaf-specific hydraulic conductivity were measured, as well as the relative growth rate, specific leaf area (SLA) and percentage of leaf damage by insect herbivores. Plant growth rates and resistance to drought-induced embolisms increased when nutrient limitations were removed. On average, the P50 of control plants was -1.1 MPa, while the P50 of fertilized plants was -1.6 MPa. Wood density and LA : SA decreased with N + P additions. A trade-off between vulnerability to cavitation and efficiency of water transport was not observed. The relative growth rate was positively related to the total leaf surface area per plant and negatively related to LA : SA, while P50 was positively related to SLA across species and treatments. Plants with higher growth rates and higher total leaf area in fertilized plots were able to avoid hydraulic dysfunction by becoming less vulnerable to cavitation (more negative P50). Two high-light-requiring species exhibited relatively low growth rates due to heavy herbivore damage. Contrary to expectations, shade-tolerant plants with relatively high resistance to hydraulic dysfunction and reduced herbivory damage were able to grow faster. These results suggest that during the initial phase of sapling establishment in gaps, species that were less vulnerable to cavitation and exhibited reduced herbivory damage had faster realized growth rates than less shade-tolerant species with higher potential growth rates. Finally, functional relationships between hydraulic traits and growth rate across species and treatments

  4. [Effects of climate change on forest succession].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jijun; Pei, Tiefan

    2004-10-01

    Forest regeneration is an important process driven by forest ecological dynamic resources. More and more concern has been given to forest succession issues since the development of forest succession theory during the early twentieth century. Scientific management of forest ecosystem entails the regulations and research models of forest succession. It is of great practical and theoretical significance to restore and reconstruct forest vegetation and to protect natural forest. Disturbances are important factors affecting regeneration structure and ecological processes. They result in temporal and spatial variations of forest ecosystem, and change the efficiencies of resources. In this paper, some concepts about forest succession and disturbances were introduced, and the difficulties of forest succession were proposed. Four classes of models were reviewed: Markov model, GAP model, process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere models (BIOME series models), and non-linear model. Subsequently, the effects of climate change on forest succession caused by human activity were discussed. At last, the existing problem and future research directions were proposed.

  5. Statistical Downscaling of Temperature with the Random Forest Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Pang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The issues with downscaling the outputs of a global climate model (GCM to a regional scale that are appropriate to hydrological impact studies are investigated using the random forest (RF model, which has been shown to be superior for large dataset analysis and variable importance evaluation. The RF is proposed for downscaling daily mean temperature in the Pearl River basin in southern China. Four downscaling models were developed and validated by using the observed temperature series from 61 national stations and large-scale predictor variables derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. The proposed RF downscaling model was compared to multiple linear regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine models. Principal component analysis (PCA and partial correlation analysis (PAR were used in the predictor selection for the other models for a comprehensive study. It was shown that the model efficiency of the RF model was higher than that of the other models according to five selected criteria. By evaluating the predictor importance, the RF could choose the best predictor combination without using PCA and PAR. The results indicate that the RF is a feasible tool for the statistical downscaling of temperature.

  6. Looking beyond the forest: Using harvest plots, gap analysis, and expert consultations to assess effectiveness, engage stakeholders, and inform policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, J; Polus, S; Brereton, L; Chilcott, J; Ward, S E; Pfadenhauer, L M; Rehfuess, E A

    2018-03-01

    We describe a combination of methods for assessing the effectiveness of complex interventions, especially where substantial heterogeneity with regard to the population, intervention, comparison, outcomes, and study design of interest is expected. We applied these methods in a recent systematic review of the effectiveness of reinforced home-based palliative care (rHBPC) interventions, which included home-based care with an additional and explicit component of lay caregiver support. We first summarized the identified evidence, deemed inappropriate for statistical pooling, graphically by creating harvest plots. Although very useful as a tool for summary and presentation of overall effectiveness, such graphical summary approaches may obscure relevant differences between studies. Thus, we then used a gap analysis and conducted expert consultations to look beyond the aggregate level at how the identified evidence of effectiveness may be explained. The goal of these supplemental methods was to step outside of the conventional systematic review and explore this heterogeneity from a broader perspective, based on the experience of palliative care researchers and practitioners. The gap analysis and expert consultations provided valuable input into possible underlying explanations in the evidence, which could be helpful in the further adaptation and testing of existing rHBPC interventions or the development and evaluation of new ones. We feel that such a combination of methods could prove accessible, understandable, and useful in informing decisions and could thus help increase the relevance of systematic reviews to the decision-making process. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. A mathematical model of a three-gap thyratron simulating turn-on

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, M. J.; Wait, G.D.

    1993-06-01

    Kicker magnets are required for all ring-to-ring transfers in the 5 rings of the proposed KAON factory synchrotron. The kick must rise/fall from 1% to 99% of full strength during the time interval of gaps created in the beam (80 ns to 160 ns) so that the beam can be extracted with minimum losses. Approximately one-third of the injection and extraction kicker magnets will operate continuously at a rate of 50 pulses per second: the others operate at 10 pulses per second. The kicker magnet PFN voltages will be in the range 50kV to 80kV, hence multi-gap thyratrons will be used for the injection and extraction kicker systems. Displacement current arising from turn-on of a multi-gap thyratron flows in the external circuit and can thus increase the effective rise-time of the kick. A mathematical model of a three-gap thyratron, which includes the drift spaces, has been developed for simulating turn-on, and is described in this paper. The thyratron model has been used to investigate ways to suppress the effects of displacement current on the kick, and to reduce thyratron switching loss. A ferrite saturating inductor may be connected adjacent to each thyratron to reduce switching loss, so that thyratron life can be extended and the kick rise-time improved. This inductor can also be used to reduce the effect of anode displacement current during turn-on of a multi-gap thyratron. The research has culminated in a predicted kick rise time (1% to 99%) of less than 50 ns for a TRIUMF 10 cell prototype kicker magnet. The proposed improvements are currently being implemented on our prototype kicker system. (author). 15 refs., 11 figs

  8. Errors in terrain-based model preditions caused by altered forest inventory plot locations in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huei-Jin Wang; Stephen Prisley; Philip Radtke; John Coulston

    2012-01-01

    Forest modeling applications that cover large geographic area can benefit from the use of widely-held knowledge about relationships between forest attributes and topographic variables. A noteworthy example involved the coupling of field survey data from the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) program of USDA Forest Service with digital elevation model (DEM) data in...

  9. Tree biomass in the Swiss landscape: nationwide modelling for improved accounting for forest and non-forest trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, B; Gomez, A; Mathys, L; Gardi, O; Schellenberger, A; Ginzler, C; Thürig, E

    2017-03-01

    Trees outside forest (TOF) can perform a variety of social, economic and ecological functions including carbon sequestration. However, detailed quantification of tree biomass is usually limited to forest areas. Taking advantage of structural information available from stereo aerial imagery and airborne laser scanning (ALS), this research models tree biomass using national forest inventory data and linear least-square regression and applies the model both inside and outside of forest to create a nationwide model for tree biomass (above ground and below ground). Validation of the tree biomass model against TOF data within settlement areas shows relatively low model performance (R 2 of 0.44) but still a considerable improvement on current biomass estimates used for greenhouse gas inventory and carbon accounting. We demonstrate an efficient and easily implementable approach to modelling tree biomass across a large heterogeneous nationwide area. The model offers significant opportunity for improved estimates on land use combination categories (CC) where tree biomass has either not been included or only roughly estimated until now. The ALS biomass model also offers the advantage of providing greater spatial resolution and greater within CC spatial variability compared to the current nationwide estimates.

  10. An object-oriented forest landscape model and its representation of tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Joel Boeder

    1999-01-01

    LANDIS is a forest landscape model that simulates the interaction of large landscape processes and forest successional dynamics at tree species level. We discuss how object-oriented design (OOD) approaches such as modularity, abstraction and encapsulation are integrated into the design of LANDIS. We show that using OOD approaches, model decisions (olden as model...

  11. Adjusting the Stems Regional Forest Growth Model to Improve Local Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Brad Smith

    1983-01-01

    A simple procedure using double sampling is described for adjusting growth in the STEMS regional forest growth model to compensate for subregional variations. Predictive accuracy of the STEMS model (a distance-independent, individual tree growth model for Lake States forests) was improved by using this procedure

  12. Modeling imperfectly repaired system data via grey differential equations with unequal-gapped times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Renkuan

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that grey differential equation models are useful in repairable system modeling. The arguments starts with the review on GM(1,1) model with equal- and unequal-spaced stopping time sequence. In terms of two-stage GM(1,1) filtering, system stopping time can be partitioned into system intrinsic function and repair effect. Furthermore, we propose an approach to use grey differential equation to specify a semi-statistical membership function for system intrinsic function times. Also, we engage an effort to use GM(1,N) model to model system stopping times and the associated operating covariates and propose an unequal-gapped GM(1,N) model for such analysis. Finally, we investigate the GM(1,1)-embed systematic grey equation system modeling of imperfectly repaired system operating data. Practical examples are given in step-by-step manner to illustrate the grey differential equation modeling of repairable system data

  13. Forest evaporation models: Relationships between stand growth and evaporation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Le Maitre, David C

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The relationships between forest stand structure, growth and evaporation were analysed to determine whether forest evaporation can be estimated from stand growth data. This approach permits rapid assessment of the potential impacts of afforestation...

  14. Modelling of excess noise attnuation by grass and forest | Onuu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , guinea grass (panicum maximum) and forest which comprises iroko (milicia ezcelea) and white afara (terminalia superba) trees in the ratio of 2:1 approximately. Excess noise attenuation spectra have been plotted for the grass and forest for ...

  15. Cracked pellet gap conductance model: comparison of FRAP-S calculations with measured fuel centerline temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonald, P.E.; Broughton, J.M.

    1975-03-01

    Fuel pellets crack extensively upon irradiation due both to thermal stresses induced by power changes and at high burnup, to accumulation of gaseous fission products at grain boundaries. Therefore, the distance between the fuel and cladding will be circumferentially nonuniform; varying between that calculated for intact operating fuel pellets and essentially zero (fuel segments in contact with the cladding wall). A model for calculation of temperatures in cracked pellets is proposed wherein the effective fuel to cladding gap conductance is calculated by taking a zero pressure contact conductance in series with an annular gap conductance. Comparisons of predicted and measured fuel centerline temperatures at beginning of life and at extended burnup are presented in support of the model. 13 references

  16. Modelling of radionuclide transport in forests: Review and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.; Schell, W.; Linkov, I.

    1997-01-01

    Ecological modeling is a powerful tool which can be used to synthesize information on the dynamic processes which occur in ecosystems. Models of radionuclide transport in forests were first constructed in the mid-1960's, when the consequences of global fallout from nuclear weapons tests and waste disposal in the environment were of great concern. Such models were developed based on site-specific experimental data and were designed to address local needs. These models had a limited applicability in evaluating distinct ecosystems and deposition scenarios. Given the scarcity of information, the same experimental data sets were often used both for model calibration and validation, an approach which clearly constitutes a methodological error. Even though the carry modeling attempts were far from being faultless, they established a useful conceptual approach in that they tried to capture general processes in ecosystems and thus had a holistic nature. Later, radioecological modeling attempted to reveal ecosystem properties by separating the component parts from the whole system, as an approach to simplification. This method worked well for radionuclide transport in agricultural ecosystems, in which the biogeochemistry of radionuclide cycling is relatively well understood and can be influenced by fertilization. Several models have been successfully developed and applied to human dose evaluation and emergency response to contaminating events in agricultural lands

  17. Forest Productivity and Diversity: Using Ecological Theory and Landscape Models to Guide Sustainable Forest Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huston, M.A.

    1998-11-01

    Sustainable forest management requires maintaining or increasing ecosystem productivity, while preserving or restoring natural levels of biodiversity. Application of general concepts from ecological theory, along with use of mechanistic, landscape-based computer models, can contribute to the successful achievement of both of these objectives. Ecological theories based on the energetics and dynamics of populations can be used to predict the general distribution of individual species, the diversity of different types of species, ecosystem process rates and pool sizes, and patterns of spatial and temporal heterogeneity over a broad range of environmental conditions. This approach requires subdivision of total biodiversity into functional types of organisms, primarily because different types of organisms respond very differently to the spatial and temporal variation of environmental conditions on landscapes. The diversity of species of the same functional type (particularly among plants) tends to be highest at relatively low levels of net primary productivity, while the total number of different functional types (particularly among animals) tends to be highest at high levels of productivity (e.g., site index or potential net primary productivity). In general, the diversity of animals at higher trophic levels (e.g., predators) reaches its maximum at much higher levels of productivity than the diversity of lower trophic levels (e.g., plants). This means that a single environment cannot support high diversity of all types of organisms. Within the framework of the general patterns described above, the distributions, population dynamics, and diversity of organisms in specific regions can be predicted more precisely using a combination of computer simulation models and GIS data based on satellite information and ground surveys. Biophysical models that use information on soil properties, climate, and hydrology have been developed to predict how the abundance and spatial

  18. Forest disturbance spurs growth of modeling and technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohrer, G.; Matheny, A. M.; Mirfenderesgi, G.; Morin, T. H.; Rey Sanchez, A. C.; Gough, C. M.; Vogel, C. S.; Nadelhoffer, K. J.; Curtis, P.

    2016-12-01

    As new opportunities for scientific exploration open, needs for data generate a drive for innovative developments of new research tools. The Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET) was enacted in 2007, continuous flux observations at the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) since 2000. FASET is a large-scale ecological experiment testing the immediate and intermediate term effects of disturbance, and eventually, the role of succession and community composition on forest flux dynamics. Decades-long tree-level observations in the UMBS forest, combined with the long term flux observations allowed us to match the bottom-up accumulated response of individual trees with the top-down whole-plot response measured from the flux tower. However, data describing tree-level canopy structure and hydrological response over an entire plot were not readily available. Unintentionally, FASET became both a motivation and a test-bed for new research tools and approaches. We expanded the operation and analysis approach for a portable canopy LiDARfor 3-D measurements meter-scale canopy structure. We matched canopy LiDAR measurements with root measurements from ground penetrating radar. To study the hydrological effects of the disturbance, we instrumented a large number of trees with Granier-style sap flux sensors. We further developed an approach to use frequency domain reflectometry sensors for continuous measurements of tree water content. We developed an approach to combine plot census, allometry and sap-flux observations in a bottom-up fashion to compare with plot-level EC transpiration rates. We found that while the transpirational water demand in the disturbance plot increased, overall evapotranspiration decreased. This decrease, however, is not uniform across species. A new individual-plant to ecosystem scale hydrodynamic model (FETCH2) demonstrates how specific traits translate to intra-daily differences in plot-level transpiration dynamics.

  19. Modelling Associations between Public Understanding, Engagement and Forest Conditions in the Inland Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, Joel; Stevens, Forrest R.; Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Congalton, Russell G.; Ducey, Mark J.; Oester, Paul T.

    2015-01-01

    Opinions about public lands and the actions of private non-industrial forest owners in the western United States play important roles in forested landscape management as both public and private forests face increasing risks from large wildfires, pests and disease. This work presents the responses from two surveys, a random-sample telephone survey of more than 1500 residents and a mail survey targeting owners of parcels with 10 or more acres of forest. These surveys were conducted in three counties (Wallowa, Union, and Baker) in northeast Oregon, USA. We analyze these survey data using structural equation models in order to assess how individual characteristics and understanding of forest management issues affect perceptions about forest conditions and risks associated with declining forest health on public lands. We test whether forest understanding is informed by background, beliefs, and experiences, and whether as an intervening variable it is associated with views about forest conditions on publicly managed forests. Individual background characteristics such as age, gender and county of residence have significant direct or indirect effects on our measurement of understanding. Controlling for background factors, we found that forest owners with higher self-assessed understanding, and more education about forest management, tend to hold more pessimistic views about forest conditions. Based on our results we argue that self-assessed understanding, interest in learning, and willingness to engage in extension activities together have leverage to affect perceptions about the risks posed by declining forest conditions on public lands, influence land owner actions, and affect support for public policies. These results also have broader implications for management of forested landscapes on public and private lands amidst changing demographics in rural communities across the Inland Northwest where migration may significantly alter the composition of forest owner goals

  20. Modelling associations between public understanding, engagement and forest conditions in the Inland Northwest, USA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Hartter

    Full Text Available Opinions about public lands and the actions of private non-industrial forest owners in the western United States play important roles in forested landscape management as both public and private forests face increasing risks from large wildfires, pests and disease. This work presents the responses from two surveys, a random-sample telephone survey of more than 1500 residents and a mail survey targeting owners of parcels with 10 or more acres of forest. These surveys were conducted in three counties (Wallowa, Union, and Baker in northeast Oregon, USA. We analyze these survey data using structural equation models in order to assess how individual characteristics and understanding of forest management issues affect perceptions about forest conditions and risks associated with declining forest health on public lands. We test whether forest understanding is informed by background, beliefs, and experiences, and whether as an intervening variable it is associated with views about forest conditions on publicly managed forests. Individual background characteristics such as age, gender and county of residence have significant direct or indirect effects on our measurement of understanding. Controlling for background factors, we found that forest owners with higher self-assessed understanding, and more education about forest management, tend to hold more pessimistic views about forest conditions. Based on our results we argue that self-assessed understanding, interest in learning, and willingness to engage in extension activities together have leverage to affect perceptions about the risks posed by declining forest conditions on public lands, influence land owner actions, and affect support for public policies. These results also have broader implications for management of forested landscapes on public and private lands amidst changing demographics in rural communities across the Inland Northwest where migration may significantly alter the composition of

  1. Lattice Hamiltonian approach to the massless Schwinger model. Precise extraction of the mass gap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cichy, Krzysztof; Poznan Univ.; Kujawa-Cichy, Agnieszka; Szyniszewski, Marcin; Manchester Univ.

    2012-12-01

    We present results of applying the Hamiltonian approach to the massless Schwinger model. A finite basis is constructed using the strong coupling expansion to a very high order. Using exact diagonalization, the continuum limit can be reliably approached. This allows to reproduce the analytical results for the ground state energy, as well as the vector and scalar mass gaps to an outstanding precision better than 10 -6 %.

  2. Lattice Hamiltonian approach to the massless Schwinger model. Precise extraction of the mass gap

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cichy, Krzysztof [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Inst. fuer Computing NIC; Poznan Univ. (Poland). Faculty of Physics; Kujawa-Cichy, Agnieszka [Poznan Univ. (Poland). Faculty of Physics; Szyniszewski, Marcin [Poznan Univ. (Poland). Faculty of Physics; Manchester Univ. (United Kingdom). NOWNano DTC

    2012-12-15

    We present results of applying the Hamiltonian approach to the massless Schwinger model. A finite basis is constructed using the strong coupling expansion to a very high order. Using exact diagonalization, the continuum limit can be reliably approached. This allows to reproduce the analytical results for the ground state energy, as well as the vector and scalar mass gaps to an outstanding precision better than 10{sup -6} %.

  3. Optical response in Weyl semimetal in model with gapped Dirac phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, S. P.; Carbotte, J. P.

    2017-10-01

    We study the optical properties of Weyl semimetal (WSM) in a model which features, in addition to the usual term describing isolated Dirac cones proportional to the Fermi velocity v F, a gap term m and a Zeeman spin-splitting term b with broken time reversal symmetry. Transport is treated within Kubo formalism and particular attention is payed to the modifications that result from a finite m and b. We consider how these modifications change when a finite residual scattering rate \

  4. Forest volume-to-biomass models and estimates of mass for live and standing dead trees of U.S. forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath; Jennifer C. Jenkins

    2003-01-01

    Includes methods and equations for nationally consistent estimates of tree-mass density at the stand level (Mg/ha) as predicted by growing-stock volumes reported by the USDA Forest Service for forests of the conterminous United States. Developed for use in FORCARB, a carbon budget model for U.S. forests, the equations also are useful for converting plot-, stand- and...

  5. Modeled forest inventory data suggest climate benefits from fuels management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeremy S. Fried; Theresa B. Jain; Jonathan. Sandquist

    2013-01-01

    As part of a recent synthesis addressing fuel management in dry, mixed-conifer forests we analyzed more than 5,000 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots, a probability sample that represents 33 million acres of these forests throughout Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and extreme northern California. We relied on the BioSum analysis framework that...

  6. Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susannah B. Lerman; Keith H. Nislow; David J. Nowak; Stephen DeStefano; David I. King; D. Todd. Jones-Farrand

    2014-01-01

    The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat...

  7. Predicting hydrological response to forest changes by simple statistical models: the selection of the best indicator of forest changes with a hydrological perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, D.; Zhang, M.; Ren, S.; Hou, Y.; Yu, L.; Meng, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Forest plays an important role in hydrological cycle, and forest changes will inevitably affect runoff across multiple spatial scales. The selection of a suitable indicator for forest changes is essential for predicting forest-related hydrological response. This study used the Meijiang River, one of the headwaters of the Poyang Lake as an example to identify the best indicator of forest changes for predicting forest change-induced hydrological responses. Correlation analysis was conducted first to detect the relationships between monthly runoff and its predictive variables including antecedent monthly precipitation and indicators for forest changes (forest coverage, vegetation indices including EVI, NDVI, and NDWI), and by use of the identified predictive variables that were most correlated with monthly runoff, multiple linear regression models were then developed. The model with best performance identified in this study included two independent variables -antecedent monthly precipitation and NDWI. It indicates that NDWI is the best indicator of forest change in hydrological prediction while forest coverage, the most commonly used indicator of forest change is insignificantly related to monthly runoff. This highlights the use of vegetation index such as NDWI to indicate forest changes in hydrological studies. This study will provide us with an efficient way to quantify the hydrological impact of large-scale forest changes in the Meijiang River watershed, which is crucial for downstream water resource management and ecological protection in the Poyang Lake basin.

  8. Incorporating shrub and snag specific LiDAR data into GAP wildlife models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teresa J Lorenz; Kerri T Vierling; Jody Vogeler; Jeffrey Lonneker; Jocelyn Aycrigg

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s Gap Analysis Program (hereafter, GAP) is a nationally based program that uses land cover, vertebrate distributions, and land ownership to identify locations where gaps in conservation coverage exist, and GAP products are commonly used by government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and private citizens. The GAP land-cover...

  9. Neural network modelling of rainfall interception in four different forest stands

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrahim Yurtseven; Mustafa Zengin

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study is to reveal whether it is possible to predict rainfall, throughfall and stemflow in forest ecosystems with less effort, using several measurements of rainfall interception (hereafter interception) and an artificial neural network based linear regression model (ANN model). To this end, the Kerpe Research Forest in the province of Kocaeli, which houses stands of mixed deciduous-broadleaf forest (Castanea sativa Mill., Fagus orientalis Lipsky, Quercus spp.), black pi...

  10. Equilibrium and non-equilibrium concepts in forest genetic modelling: population- and individually-based approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Kramer, Koen; van der Werf, D. C.

    2010-01-01

    The environment is changing and so are forests, in their functioning, in species composition, and in the species’ genetic composition. Many empirical and process-based models exist to support forest management. However, most of these models do not consider the impact of environmental changes and forest management on genetic diversity nor on the rate of adaptation of critical plant processes. How genetic diversity and rates of adaptation depend on management actions is a crucial next step in m...

  11. Modeling the effects of forest management on in situ and ex situ longleaf pine forest carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    C.A. Gonzalez-Benecke; L.J. Samuelson; T.A. Martin; W.P. Cropper Jr; Kurt Johnsen; T.A. Stokes; John Butnor; P.H. Anderson

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of forest carbon storage dynamics requires a variety of techniques including simulation models. We developed a hybrid model to assess the effects of silvicultural management systems on carbon (C) budgets in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) plantations in the southeastern U.S. To simulate in situ C pools, the model integrates a growth and yield model...

  12. Modeling of air-gap membrane distillation process: A theoretical and experimental study

    KAUST Repository

    Alsaadi, Ahmad Salem

    2013-06-03

    A one dimensional (1-D) air gap membrane distillation (AGMD) model for flat sheet type modules has been developed. This model is based on mathematical equations that describe the heat and mass transfer mechanisms of a single-stage AGMD process. It can simulate AGMD modules in both co-current and counter-current flow regimes. The theoretical model was validated using AGMD experimental data obtained under different operating conditions and parameters. The predicted water vapor flux was compared to the flux measured at five different feed water temperatures, two different feed water salinities, three different air gap widths and two MD membranes with different average pore sizes. This comparison showed that the model flux predictions are strongly correlated with the experimental data, with model predictions being within +10% of the experimentally determined values. The model was then used to study and analyze the parameters that have significant effect on scaling-up the AGMD process such as the effect of increasing the membrane length, and feed and coolant flow rates. The model was also used to analyze the maximum thermal efficiency of the AGMD process by tracing changes in water production rate and the heat input to the process along the membrane length. This was used to understand the gain in both process production and thermal efficiency for different membrane surface areas and the resultant increases in process capital and water unit cost. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

  13. Endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models-a systematic analysis within TIMES G5 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, Ullash K.; Fahl, Ulrich; Remme, Uwe; Blesl, Markus; Voss, Alfred

    2009-01-01

    Evaluation of global diffusion potential of learning technologies and their timely specific cost development across regions is always a challenging issue for the future technology policy preparation. Further the process of evaluation gains interest especially by endogenous treatment of energy technologies under uncertainty in learning rates with technology gap across the regions in global regional cluster learning approach. This work devised, implemented, and examined new methodologies on technology gaps (a practical problem), using two broad concepts of knowledge deficit and time lag approaches in global learning, applying the floor cost approach methodology. The study was executed in a multi-regional, technology-rich and long horizon bottom-up linear energy system model on The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System (TIMES) framework. Global learning selects highest learning technologies in maximum uncertainty of learning rate scenario, whereas any form of technology gap retards the global learning process and discourages the technologies deployment. Time lag notions of technology gaps prefer heavy utilization of learning technologies in developed economies for early reduction of specific cost. Technology gaps of any kind should be reduced among economies through the promotion and enactment of various policies by governments, in order to utilize the technological resources by mass deployment to combat ongoing climate change.

  14. Modeling the complex impacts of timber harvests to find optimal management regimes for Amazon tidal floodplain forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Cropper, Wendell P.; Zarin, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in post-harvest demography, shifts in the distribution of merchantable trees, and shifts in stand composition. We designed a matrix-based forest management model that incorporates these harvest-related impacts so resulting simulations reflect forest stand dynamics under repeated timber harvests as well as the realities of local smallholder timber management systems. Using a wide range of values for management criteria (e.g., length of cutting cycle, minimum cut diameter), we projected the long-term population dynamics and yields of hundreds of timber management regimes in the Amazon estuary, where small-scale, unmechanized logging is an important economic activity. These results were then compared to find optimal stand-level and species-specific sustainable timber management (STM) regimes using a set of timber yield and population growth indicators. Prospects for STM in Amazonian tidal floodplain forests are better than for many other tropical forests. However, generally high stock recovery rates between harvests are due to the comparatively high projected mean annualized yields from fast-growing species that effectively counterbalance the projected yield declines from other species. For Amazonian tidal floodplain forests, national management guidelines provide neither the highest yields nor the highest sustained population growth for species under management. Our research shows that management guidelines specific to a region’s ecological settings can be further refined to consider differences in species demographic responses to repeated harvests. In principle, such fine

  15. An Illustration of Generalised Arma (garma) Time Series Modeling of Forest Area in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, Thulasyammal Ramiah; Shitan, Mahendran

    Forestry is the art and science of managing forests, tree plantations, and related natural resources. The main goal of forestry is to create and implement systems that allow forests to continue a sustainable provision of environmental supplies and services. Forest area is land under natural or planted stands of trees, whether productive or not. Forest area of Malaysia has been observed over the years and it can be modeled using time series models. A new class of GARMA models have been introduced in the time series literature to reveal some hidden features in time series data. For these models to be used widely in practice, we illustrate the fitting of GARMA (1, 1; 1, δ) model to the Annual Forest Area data of Malaysia which has been observed from 1987 to 2008. The estimation of the model was done using Hannan-Rissanen Algorithm, Whittle's Estimation and Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

  16. THE SAVINGS-TRADE-FISCAL GAP MODEL: APPLICATION IN SELECTED WEST AFRICAN STATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Efayena Oba Obukohwo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available With most African economies experiencing adverse economic misalignment in recent times, the need of enhancing the growth process cannot be overemphasized. Using a typical Savings-Trade-Fiscal Gap Model, the paper employed panel data estimation method to examine the impact of savings, trade and fiscal gap on economic growth of 15 West African countries. The paper finds a negative relationship between net trade and economic growth, while savings and government expenditure impacts positively on economic performance. The paper thus, among recommended that it is appropriate for all countries to eliminate fiscal dominance from monetary policy-making, reduce public debt and establish institutions that promote and encourage counter-cyclical fiscal policy, develop their financial systems, establish credibility in fiscal and monetary policy-making as well as encourage trade.

  17. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K. Costanza

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  18. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  19. How the Human Capital Model Explains Why the Gender Wage Gap Narrowed

    OpenAIRE

    Polachek, Solomon W.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores secular changes in women?s pay relative to men?s pay. It shows how the human capital model predicts a smaller gender wage gap as male-female lifetime work expectations become more similar. The model explains why relative female wages rose almost unabated from 1890 to the early-1990s in the United States (with the exception of about 1940-1980), and why this relative wage growth tapered off since 1993. In addition to the US, the paper presents evidence from nine other countr...

  20. The relation between mass-gap amplitudes and critical exponents in the Heisenberg model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcaraz, F.C.; Felicio, J.R.D. de

    1985-01-01

    A recent result concerning the universality of the ratio of mass-gap amplitudes using the well known 1-D Heisenberg model which is the quantum version of the two-dimensional eight-vertex model is discussed. The believed extended scaling relation (x sub(p) = x sub(is an element of)/4) relating the polarization and energy anomalous dimensions is confirmed. The exponent, α, ν, γ sub(m) and γ sub(p) is also obtained by usual phenomenological renormalization group methods. (Author) [pt

  1. [Carbon storage of forest vegetation and allocation for main forest types in the east of Da-xing'an Mountains based on additive biomass model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Wei; Dong, Li Hu; Li, Feng Ri

    2016-12-01

    Based on the biomass investigation data of main forest types in the east of Daxing'an Mountains, the additive biomass models of 3 main tree species were developed and the changes of carbon storage and allocation of forest community of tree layer, shrub layer, herb layer and litter layer from different forest types were discussed. The results showed that the carbon storage of tree layer, shrub layer, herb layer and litter layer for Rhododendron dauricum-Larix gmelinii forest was 71.00, 0.34, 0.05 and 11.97 t·hm -2 , respectively. Similarly, the carbon storage of the four layers of Ledum palustre-L. gmelinii forest was 47.82, 0.88, 0, 5.04 t·hm -2 , 56.56, 0.44, 0.04, 8.72 t·hm -2 for R. dauricum-mixed forest of L. gmelinii-Betula platyphylla, 46.21, 0.66, 0.07, 6.16 t·hm -2 for L. palustre-mixed forest of L. gmelinii-B. platyphylla, 40.90, 1.37, 0.04, 3.67 t·hm -2 for R. dauricum-B. platyphylla forest, 36.28, 1.12, 0.18, 4.35 t·hm -2 for L. palustre-B. platyphylla forest. The carbon storage of forest community for the understory vegetation of R. dauricum was higher than that of the forest with L. palustre. In the condition of similar circumstances for the understory, the order of carbon storage for forest community was L. gmelinii forest > the mixed forest of L. gmelinii-B. platyphylla > B. platyphylla forest. The carbon storage of different forest types was different with the order of R. dauricum-L. gmelinii forest (83.36 t·hm -2 )> R. dauricum-mixed forest of L. gmelinii-B. platyphylla (65.76 t·hm -2 ) > L. palustre-L. gmelinii forest (53.74 t·hm -2 )> L. palustre-mixed forest of L. gmelinii-B. platyphylla (53.10 t·hm -2 )> R. dauricum-B. platyphylla forest (45.98 t·hm -2 ) > L. palustre-B. platyphylla forest (41.93 t·hm -2 ). The order of carbon storage for the vertical distribution in forest communities with diffe-rent forest types was the tree layer (85.2%-89.0%) > litter layer (8.0%-14.4%) > shrub layer (0.4%-2.7%) > herb layer (0-0.4%).

  2. The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaehle, Sönke; Sitch, Stephen; Prentice, I Colin; Liski, Jari; Cramer, Wolfgang; Erhard, Markus; Hickler, Thomas; Smith, Benjamin

    2006-08-01

    We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.

  3. Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Dominik. Cullmann

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalized linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Wurttemberg...

  4. Tropical forest harvesting and taxation: a dynamic model of harvesting behavior under selective extraction systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert F. Conrad; Malcolm Gillis; D. Evan Mercer

    2005-01-01

    A dynamic model of selective harvesting in multi-species,multi-age tropical forests is developed. Forests are predicted to exhibit different optimal harvesting profiles depending on the nature of their joint cost functions and own or cross-species stock effects. The model is applied to the controversy about incentives produced by various taxes. The impacts of specific...

  5. Linking linear programming and spatial simulation models to predict landscape effects of forest management alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; L. Jay Roberts; Larry A. Leefers

    2006-01-01

    Forest management planners require analytical tools to assess the effects of alternative strategies on the sometimes disparate benefits from forests such as timber production and wildlife habitat. We assessed the spatial patterns of alternative management strategies by linking two models that were developed for different purposes. We used a linear programming model (...

  6. A forest model relevant to red-cockaded woodpeckers (Picoides Borealis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.C.G. Goelz; C.C. Rewerts; N.J. Hess

    2005-01-01

    Most forest models are created with timber production as the implied primacy. For many land managers, timber production is less important than production of habitat for wildlife. Red-cockaded woodpeckers (RCW) are one of the priorites for management of the forests at Ft. Benning army installation. To aid management, a model that integrates a red-cockaded woodpecker...

  7. Modelling the carbon budget of intensive forest monitoring sites in Germany using the simulation model BIOME-BGC

    OpenAIRE

    Jochheim, H.; Puhlmann, M.; Beese, F.; Berthold, D.; Einert, P.; Kallweit, R.; Konopatzky, A.; Meesenburg, H.; Meiwes, K.-J.; Raspe, S.; Schulte-Bisping, H.; Schulz, C.

    2008-01-01

    It is shown that by calibrating the simulation model BIOME-BGC with mandatory and optional Level II data, within the ICP Forest programme, a well-founded calculation of the carbon budget of forest stands is achievable and, based on succeeded calibration, the modified BIOME-BGC model is a useful tool to assess the effect of climate change on forest ecosystems. peerReviewed

  8. The effect of interspecific variation in photosynthetic plasticity on 4-year growth rate and 8-year survival of understorey tree seedlings in response to gap formations in a cool-temperate deciduous forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oguchi, Riichi; Hiura, Tsutom; Hikosaka, Kouki

    2017-08-01

    Gap formation increases the light intensity in the forest understorey. The growth responses of seedlings to the increase in light availability show interspecific variation, which is considered to promote biodiversity in forests. At the leaf level, some species increase their photosynthetic capacity in response to gap formation, whereas others do not. Here we address the question of whether the interspecific difference in the photosynthetic response results in the interspecific variation in the growth response. If so, the interspecific difference in photosynthetic response would also contribute to species coexistence in forests. We also address the further relevant question of why some species do not increase their photosynthetic capacity. We assumed that some cost of photosynthetic plasticity may constrain acquisition of the plasticity in some species, and hypothesized that species with larger photosynthetic plasticity exhibit better growth after gap formation and lower survivorship in the shade understorey of a cool-temperate deciduous forest. We created gaps by felling canopy trees and studied the relationship between the photosynthetic response and the subsequent growth rate of seedlings. Naturally growing seedlings of six deciduous woody species were used and their mortality was examined for 8 years. The light-saturated rate of photosynthesis (Pmax) and the relative growth rate (RGR) of the seedlings of all study species increased at gap plots. The extent of these increases varied among the species. The stimulation of RGR over 4 years after gap formation was strongly correlated with change in photosynthetic capacity of newly expanded leaves. The increase in RGR and Pmax correlated with the 8-year mortality at control plots. These results suggest a trade-off between photosynthetic plasticity and the understorey shade tolerance. Gap-demanding species may acquire photosynthetic plasticity, sacrificing shade tolerances, whereas gap-independent species may acquire

  9. Analysis of functional importance of binding sites in the Drosophila gap gene network model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Konstantin; Gursky, Vitaly V; Kulakovskiy, Ivan V; Dymova, Arina; Samsonova, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The statistical thermodynamics based approach provides a promising framework for construction of the genotype-phenotype map in many biological systems. Among important aspects of a good model connecting the DNA sequence information with that of a molecular phenotype (gene expression) is the selection of regulatory interactions and relevant transcription factor bindings sites. As the model may predict different levels of the functional importance of specific binding sites in different genomic and regulatory contexts, it is essential to formulate and study such models under different modeling assumptions. We elaborate a two-layer model for the Drosophila gap gene network and include in the model a combined set of transcription factor binding sites and concentration dependent regulatory interaction between gap genes hunchback and Kruppel. We show that the new variants of the model are more consistent in terms of gene expression predictions for various genetic constructs in comparison to previous work. We quantify the functional importance of binding sites by calculating their impact on gene expression in the model and calculate how these impacts correlate across all sites under different modeling assumptions. The assumption about the dual interaction between hb and Kr leads to the most consistent modeling results, but, on the other hand, may obscure existence of indirect interactions between binding sites in regulatory regions of distinct genes. The analysis confirms the previously formulated regulation concept of many weak binding sites working in concert. The model predicts a more or less uniform distribution of functionally important binding sites over the sets of experimentally characterized regulatory modules and other open chromatin domains.

  10. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

    2015-05-01

    The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  12. Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamma Homsysavath

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

  13. Multi-linear model set design based on the nonlinearity measure and H-gap metric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaghaghi, Davood; Fatehi, Alireza; Khaki-Sedigh, Ali

    2017-05-01

    This paper proposes a model bank selection method for a large class of nonlinear systems with wide operating ranges. In particular, nonlinearity measure and H-gap metric are used to provide an effective algorithm to design a model bank for the system. Then, the proposed model bank is accompanied with model predictive controllers to design a high performance advanced process controller. The advantage of this method is the reduction of excessive switch between models and also decrement of the computational complexity in the controller bank that can lead to performance improvement of the control system. The effectiveness of the method is verified by simulations as well as experimental studies on a pH neutralization laboratory apparatus which confirms the efficiency of the proposed algorithm. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Numerical modeling of the thermoelectric cooler with a complementary equation for heat circulation in air gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, En; Wu, Xiaojie; Yu, Yuesen; Xiu, Junrui

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, a numerical model is developed by combining thermodynamics with heat transfer theory. Taking inner and external multi-irreversibility into account, it is with a complementary equation for heat circulation in air gaps of a steady cooling system with commercial thermoelectric modules operating in refrigeration mode. With two modes concerned, the equation presents the heat flowing through air gaps which forms heat circulations between both sides of thermoelectric coolers (TECs). In numerical modelling, a TEC is separated as two temperature controlled constant heat flux reservoirs in a thermal resistance network. In order to obtain the parameter values, an experimental apparatus with a commercial thermoelectric cooler was built to characterize the performance of a TEC with heat source and sink assembly. At constant power dissipation, steady temperatures of heat source and both sides of the thermoelectric cooler were compared with those in a standard numerical model. The method displayed that the relationship between Φf and the ratio Φ_{c}'/Φ_{c} was linear as expected. Then, for verifying the accuracy of proposed numerical model, the data in another system were recorded. It is evident that the experimental results are in good agreement with simulation(proposed model) data at different heat transfer rates. The error is small and mainly results from the instabilities of thermal resistances with temperature change and heat flux, heat loss of the device vertical surfaces and measurements.

  15. Modeling climate and fuel reduction impacts on mixed-conifer forest carbon stocks in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew D. Hurteau; Timothy A. Robards; Donald Stevens; David Saah; Malcolm North; George W. Koch

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the impacts of changing climatic conditions on forest growth is integral to estimating future forest carbon balance. We used a growth-and-yield model, modified for climate sensitivity, to quantify the effects of altered climate on mixed-conifer forest growth in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Estimates of forest growth and live tree carbon stocks were...

  16. Development of lichen response indexes using a regional gradient modeling approach for large-scale monitoring of forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan Will-Wolf; Peter Neitlich

    2010-01-01

    Development of a regional lichen gradient model from community data is a powerful tool to derive lichen indexes of response to environmental factors for large-scale and long-term monitoring of forest ecosystems. The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service includes lichens in its national inventory of forests of...

  17. Modeling forest defoliation using simulated BRDF and assessing its effect on reflectance and sensor reaching radiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rengarajan, Rajagopalan; Schott, John R.

    2016-09-01

    Remote sensing techniques such as change detection are widely used for mapping and monitoring forest cover to detect the declining health and vigor of forests. These techniques rely on the assumption that the biophysical variation in the forest introduces a corresponding variation in its reflectance. The biophysical variations are assessed by foresters, but these assessment techniques are expensive and cannot be performed frequently to identify a specific level of change in the forest, for example, infection due to gypsy moths that results in forest defoliation. Further, the interaction of atmosphere, sensor characteristics, and phenology that are inherent in the remotely sensed images makes it difficult to separate biophysical changes from observational effects. We have addressed these limitations by developing a method to model the spectral reflectance properties of forests with varying degrees of defoliation using the Digital Image and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) tool. This paper discusses the in-canopy radiative approach and the impact of defoliation on the reflectance and radiance observed by sensors such as Landsat. The results indicate that the relative variation in forest reflectance between a non-defoliated and a 30% defoliated deciduous forest can be as high as 10% in the NIR spectral band. A function can be fit to predict the level of defoliation from the relative variation in radiance. The modeling and analysis techniques can be extended to assess the impact of atmospheric factors and sensor characteristics relative to the biophysical changes as well as for assessing other biophysical variables in forests.

  18. Determination of the Support Level of Local Organizations in a Model Forest Initiative: Do Local Stakeholders Have Willingness to Be Involved in the Model Forest Development?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Tolunay

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Voluntary cooperation and the support of stakeholders carry a major importance in the development of Model Forests. The identification of the support level of local organizations as stakeholders in the Bucak Model Forest initiative, located in the Mediterranean region of Turkey, constitutes the theme of this study. Within this scope, the views of the stakeholders comprising local government units (LGUs, non-governmental organizations (NGOs, village councils (VCs, professional organizations (POs and forest products enterprises (FPEs located in the district of Bucak were collected by utilizing a survey technique. The data were analysed by using non-parametric statistical analyses due to the absence of a normal distribution. The results show that the information provided about the Model Forest concept to the stakeholders located in the district on the Bucak Model Forest initiative was identified as a factor impacting the support level. Moreover, it was also observed that the stakeholders were more willing to provide advisory support rather than financial support. NGOs and VCs were identified as stakeholders who could not provide financial support due to their restricted budgets. We discuss the benefits for a Model Forest initiative of establishing international cooperation to strengthen the local and regional sustainable development process.

  19. A vorticity transport model to restore spatial gaps in velocity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ameli, Siavash; Shadden, Shawn

    2017-11-01

    Often measurements of velocity data do not have full spatial coverage in the probed domain or near boundaries. These gaps can be due to missing measurements or masked regions of corrupted data. These gaps confound interpretation, and are problematic when the data is used to compute Lagrangian or trajectory-based analyses. Various techniques have been proposed to overcome coverage limitations in velocity data such as unweighted least square fitting, empirical orthogonal function analysis, variational interpolation as well as boundary modal analysis. In this talk, we present a vorticity transport PDE to reconstruct regions of missing velocity vectors. The transport model involves both nonlinear anisotropic diffusion and advection. This approach is shown to preserve the main features of the flow even in cases of large gaps, and the reconstructed regions are continuous up to second order. We illustrate results for high-frequency radar (HFR) measurements of the ocean surface currents as this is a common application of limited coverage. We demonstrate that the error of the method is on the same order of the error of the original velocity data. In addition, we have developed a web-based gateway for data restoration, and we will demonstrate a practical application using available data. This work is supported by the NSF Grant No. 1520825.

  20. Trends in Education Excellence Gaps: A 12-Year International Perspective via the Multilevel Model for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutkowski, David; Rutkowski, Leslie; Plucker, Jonathan A.

    2012-01-01

    A recent study in the USA documented the existence and growth of "excellence gaps" among students. These gaps are similar to the minimum competency achievement gaps that proliferate in policy discussions in many Western countries, but excellence gaps focus on the highest level of achievement rather than minimum competency. We extend this…

  1. Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Penelope Holland

    Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

  2. Evapotranspiration and heat fluxes over a patchy forest - studied using modelling and measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sogachev, Andrey; Dellwik, Ebba; Boegh, Eva

    using these parameters without a proper interpretation in mesoscale or global circulation models can results in serious bias of estimates of modelled evapotranspiration or heat fluxes from given area. Since representative measurements focused on heterogeneous effects are scarce numerical modelling can...... and latent heat flux above forest downwind of a forest edge show these fluxes to be larger than the available energy over the forest (Klaassen et al. 2002, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 72, 231-243). Because such flux measurements are very often used for calibration of forest parameters or model constants, further......, Ecological. Appl. 18, 1454-1459). In the present work, we apply the SCADIS with enhanced turbulence closure including buoyancy for investigation of the spatial distribution of latent and sensible heat vertical fluxes over patchy forested terrain in Denmark during selected days in the summer period. A closer...

  3. Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, e...

  4. IMPROVING THE INTEROPERABILITY OF DISASTER MODELS: A CASE STUDY OF PROPOSING FIREML FOR FOREST FIRE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Jiang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML, extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

  5. Improving the Interoperability of Disaster Models: a Case Study of Proposing Fireml for Forest Fire Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, W.; Wang, F.; Meng, Q.; Li, Z.; Liu, B.; Zheng, X.

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

  6. A climate sensitive model of carbon transfer through atmosphere, vegetation and soil in managed forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.

    2012-12-01

    For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This

  7. Targeting Forest Management through Fire and Erosion Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.

    2013-04-01

    Forests deliver a number of ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing and quantity of runoff can be altered, and the quality can be severely degraded. A modeling study for about 1500 km2 in the Upper Mokelumne River Watershed in California was conducted to determine the risk of wildfire and the associated potential sediment delivery should a wildfire occur, and to calculate the potential reduction in sediment delivery that might result from fuel reduction treatments. The first step was to predict wildfire severity and probability of occurrence under current vegetation conditions with FlamMap fire prediction tool. FlamMap uses current vegetation, topography, and wind characteristics to predict the speed, flame length, and direction of a simulated flame front for each 30-m pixel. As the first step in the erosion modeling, a geospatial interface for the WEPP model (GeoWEPP) was used to delineate approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons for the study area. The flame length values from FlamMap were then aggregated for each hillslope polygon to yield a predicted fire intensity. Fire intensity and pre-fire vegetation conditions were used to estimate fire severity (either unburned, low, moderate or high). The fire severity was combined with soil properties from the STATSGO database to build the vegetation and soil files needed to run WEPP for each polygon. Eight different stochastic climates were generated to account for the weather variability within the basin. A modified batching version of GeoWEPP was used to predict the first-year post-fire sediment yield from each hillslope and subwatershed. Estimated sediment yields ranged from 0 to more than 100 Mg/ha, and were typical of observed values. The polygons that generated the greatest amount of sediment or that were critical for reducing fire spread were identified, and these were "treated" by reducing the amount of fuel available for a wildfire. The erosion associated with

  8. CALIBRATION OF DISTRIBUTED SHALLOW LANDSLIDE MODELS IN FORESTED LANDSCAPES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gian Battista Bischetti

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In mountainous-forested soil mantled landscapes all around the world, rainfall-induced shallow landslides are one of the most common hydro-geomorphic hazards, which frequently impact the environment and human lives and properties. In order to produce shallow landslide susceptibility maps, several models have been proposed in the last decade, combining simplified steady state topography- based hydrological models with the infinite slope scheme, in a GIS framework. In the present paper, two of the still open issues are investigated: the assessment of the validity of slope stability models and the inclusion of root cohesion values. In such a perspective the “Stability INdex MAPping” has been applied to a small forested pre-Alpine catchment, adopting different calibrating approaches and target indexes. The Single and the Multiple Calibration Regions modality and three quantitative target indexes – the common Success Rate (SR, the Modified Success Rate (MSR, and a Weighted Modified Success Rate (WMSR herein introduced – are considered. The results obtained show that the target index can 34 003_Bischetti(569_23 1-12-2010 9:48 Pagina 34 significantly affect the values of a model’s parameters and lead to different proportions of stable/unstable areas, both for the Single and the Multiple Calibration Regions approach. The use of SR as the target index leads to an over-prediction of the unstable areas, whereas the use of MSR and WMSR, seems to allow a better discrimination between stable and unstable areas. The Multiple Calibration Regions approach should be preferred, using information on space distribution of vegetation to define the Regions. The use of field-based estimation of root cohesion and sliding depth allows the implementation of slope stability models (SINMAP in our case also without the data needed for calibration. To maximize the inclusion of such parameters into SINMAP, however, the assumption of a uniform distribution of

  9. Dynamics of treefall gaps in a harvested forest in Misiones, Northern Argentine Dinámica de claros artificiales en un bosque aprovechado en Misiones, noreste de Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nardia Maria Luján Bulfe

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available

    This work evaluates the diameter growth of trees species of artificial gaps per ecological groups in a harvested forest considering two systems of harvest. The study was carried out in the Reserva de Biósfera Yabotí, in Misiones, Argentina. Fifteen permanent plots were established, each one with 4 hectares with effective area of measurement of one hectare. The three treatments were: conventional logging, reduced impact logging and control plot. All trees larger than 10 cm of diameter at breast height (DBH were measured, before (1998 and after the harvest (2006. Eighty-five species were registered. The average DBH diameter growth for all species was 0.41 cm yr-1 in the gap area, and 0.31 cm yr-1 for the control plot. The average diameter growth was 0.36 cm yr-1 for the reduced impact logging and 0.42 cm yr-1 for the conventional logging. In forests with high diversity, ecological groups are an important tool for the management and conservation. The reduced impact logging would be considered a less aggressive alternative for the forests in this region. 

    doi: 10.4336/2010.pfb.30.64.311

    Este trabajo evalúa el crecimiento diamétrico de especies arbóreas clasificadas en grupos ecológicos dentro de claros artificiales en un bosque estacional semideciduo aprovechado considerando dos sistemas de cosecha. El estudio fue desarrollado en la Reserva de Biosfera Yabotí, Misiones, Argentina. Se instalaron 15 parcelas permanentes, de cuatro hectáreas cada una, con un área efectiva de medición de una hectárea. Los tratamientos fueron tres: cosecha convencional, cosecha de impacto reducido y parcela testigo. Se registraron todos los ejemplares arbóreos mayores a 10 cm de diámetro a la altura del pecho (DAP antes (1998 y después de la cosecha (2006. La riqueza florística alcanzó un número de 85 especies. Para el conjunto de especies el crecimiento diamétrico promedio fue de 0,41 cm año-1 en área de claro y de 0,31 cm.año-1 en

  10. Modelling recolonization of second-growth forest stands by the north american red squirrel Tamiasciurus hudsonicus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyquist, B; Tyson, R; Larsen, K

    2007-05-01

    In this paper, we present a model for source-sink population dynamics where the locations of source and sink habitats change over time. We do this in the context of the population dynamics of the North American red squirrel, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus, within a forest environment subject to harvesting and regrowth. Harvested patches of forest are initially sinks, then eventually become source habitat again as the forest regrows. At the same time, each harvested patch is gradually recolonized by squirrels from other forest patches. We are interested in the interaction of forest harvesting dynamics with squirrel population dynamics. This depends on the harvesting schedule, and on the choices squirrels make when deciding whether to settle in a mature forest patch or in a recently harvested patch. We find that the time it takes for a second-growth forest patch to be recolonized at the mature forest level is longer than the time required for the habitat quality to be restored to the mature forest level. We also notice that recolonization pressure decreases squirrel populations in neighbouring patches. The connectivity between forest patches and the cutting schedule used also affect the time course of recolonization and steady-state population levels.

  11. Keystone Species, Forest and Landscape: A Model to Select Protected Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lins, Daniela Barbosa da Silva; Gardon, Fernando Ravanini; Meyer, João Frederico da Costa Azevedo; Santos, Rozely Ferreira dos

    2017-06-01

    The selection of forest fragments for conservation is usually based on spatial parameters as forest size and canopy integrity. This strategy assumes that chosen fragments present high conservation status, ensuring biodiversity and ecological functions. We argue that a well-preserved forest fragment that remains connected by the landscape structure, does not necessarily hold attributes that ensure the presence of keystone species. We also discuss that the presence of keystone species does not always mean that it has the best conditions for its occurrence and maintenance. We developed a model to select areas in forest landscapes to be prioritized for protection based on suitability curves that unify and compare spatial indicators of three categories: forest fragment quality, landscape quality, and environmental conditions for the occurrence of a keystone species. We use a case study to compare different suitability degrees for Euterpe edulis presence, considered an important functional element in Atlantic Forest (São Paulo, Brazil) landscapes and a forest resource for local people. The results show that the identification of medium or advanced stage fragments as singular indicator of forest quality does not guarantee the existence or maintenance of this keystone species. Even in some well-preserved forest fragments, connected to others and with palm presence, the reverse J-shaped distribution of the population size structure is not sustained and these forests continue to be threatened due to human disturbances.

  12. Modelling Marine Sediment Biogeochemistry: Current Knowledge Gaps, Challenges, and Some Methodological Advice for Advancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gennadi Lessin

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The benthic environment is a crucial component of marine systems in the provision of ecosystem services, sustaining biodiversity and in climate regulation, and therefore important to human society. With the contemporary increase in computational power, model resolution and technological improvements in quality and quantity of benthic data, it is necessary to ensure that benthic systems are appropriately represented in coupled benthic-pelagic biogeochemical and ecological modelling studies. In this paper we focus on five topical challenges related to various aspects of modelling benthic environments: organic matter reactivity, dynamics of benthic-pelagic boundary layer, microphytobenthos, biological transport and small-scale heterogeneity, and impacts of episodic events. We discuss current gaps in their understanding and indicate plausible ways ahead. Further, we propose a three-pronged approach for the advancement of benthic and benthic-pelagic modelling, essential for improved understanding, management and prediction of the marine environment. This includes: (A development of a traceable and hierarchical framework for benthic-pelagic models, which will facilitate integration among models, reduce risk of bias, and clarify model limitations; (B extended cross-disciplinary approach to promote effective collaboration between modelling and empirical scientists of various backgrounds and better involvement of stakeholders and end-users; (C a common vocabulary for terminology used in benthic modelling, to promote model development and integration, and also to enhance mutual understanding.

  13. Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

    2016-04-01

    A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

  14. Modelling of the negative discharge in long air gaps under impulse voltages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rakotonandrasana, J H; Beroual, A; Fofana, I

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a self-consistent model enabling the description of the whole negative discharge sequence, initiated in long air gaps under impulse voltage waves. This sequence includes the different phases of the propagation such as the initiation of the first corona, the pilot leader, the electrode and space leaders, and their junction. The model consists of using a RLC equivalent electrical network, the parameters of which vary with time according to the discharge characteristics and geometry (R, L and C being, respectively, the resistance, the inductance and the capacitance). This model provides the spatial and temporal evolution of the entire discharge, the current and the corresponding electrical charge, the power and energy injected into the gap and the velocity. It also allows us to simulate an image converter working in streak or frame mode and the leader propagation velocities as well as the trajectory of the discharge obtained from a probabilistic distribution. The computed results are compared with experimental data. Good agreement between computed and experimental results was obtained for various test configurations

  15. Modeling and validation of multiple joint reflections for ultra- narrow gap laser welding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milewski, J.; Keel, G. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Sklar, E. [Opticad Corp., Santa Fe, New Mexico (United States)

    1995-12-01

    The effects of multiple internal reflections within a laser weld joint as a function of joint geometry and processing conditions have been characterized. A computer model utilizing optical ray tracing is used to predict the reflective propagation of laser beam energy focused into the narrow gap of a metal joint for the purpose of predicting the location of melting and coalescence which form the weld. The model allows quantitative analysis of the effects of changes to joint geometry, laser design, materials and processing variables. This analysis method is proposed as a way to enhance process efficiency and design laser welds which display deep penetration and high depth to width aspect ratios, reduced occurrence of defects and enhanced melting. Of particular interest to laser welding is the enhancement of energy coupling to highly reflective materials. The weld joint is designed to act as an optical element which propagates and concentrates the laser energy deep within the joint to be welded. Experimentation has shown that it is possible to produce welds using multiple passes to achieve deep penetration and high depth to width aspect ratios without the use of filler material. The enhanced laser melting and welding of aluminum has been demonstrated. Optimization through modeling and experimental validation has resulted in the development of a laser welding process variant we refer to as Ultra-Narrow Gap Laser Welding.

  16. Modeling belowground biomass of black cohosh, a medicinal forest product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James Chamberlain; Gabrielle Ness; Christine Small; Simon Bonner; Elizabeth Hiebert

    2014-01-01

    Tens of thousands of kilograms of rhizomes and roots of Actaea racemosa L., a native Appalachian forest perennial, are harvested every year and used for the treatment of menopausal conditions. Sustainable management of this and other wild-harvested non-timber forest products requires the ability to effectively and reliably inventory marketable plant...

  17. Growth and yield model application in tropical rain forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    James Atta-Boateng; John W., Jr. Moser

    2000-01-01

    Analytical tools are needed to evaluate the impact of management policies on the sustainable use of rain forest. Optimal decisions concerning the level of management inputs require accurate predictions of output at all relevant input levels. Using growth data from 40 l-hectare permanent plots obtained from the semi-deciduous forest of Ghana, a system of 77 differential...

  18. REGENERATION IN GAP MODELS: PRIORITY ISSUES FOR STUDYING FOREST RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE. (R828785)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  19. The technology gap and efficiency measure in WEC countries: Application of the hybrid meta frontier model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, Yung-Ho; Lee, Jen-Hui; Lu, Ching-Cheng; Shyu, Ming-Kuang; Luo, Zhengying

    2012-01-01

    This study develops the hybrid meta frontier DEA model for which inputs are distinguished into radial inputs that change proportionally and non-radial inputs that change non-proportionally, in order to measure the technical efficiency and technology gap ratios (TGR) of four different regions: Asia, Africa, America, and Europe. This paper selects 87 countries that are members of the World Energy Council from 2005 to 2007. The input variables are industry and population, while the output variances are gross domestic product (GDP) and the amount of fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions. The result shows that countries’ efficiency ranking among their own region presents more implied volatility. In view of the Technology Gap Ratio, Europe is the most efficient of any region, but during the same period, Asia has a lower efficiency than other regions. Finally, regions with higher industry (or GDP) might not have higher efficiency from 2005 to 2007. And higher CO 2 emissions or population also might not mean lower efficiency for other regions. In addition, Brazil is not OECD member, but it is higher efficiency than other OECD members in emerging countries case. OECD countries are better efficiency than non-OECD countries and Europe is higher than Asia to control CO 2 emissions. If non-OECD countries or Asia countries could reach the best efficiency score, they should try to control CO 2 emissions. - Highlights: ► The new meta frontier Model for evaluating the efficiency and technology gap ratios. ► Higher CO 2 emissions might not lower efficiency than any other regions, like Europe. ► Asia’s output and CO 2 emissions simultaneously increased and lower of its efficiency. ► Non-OECD or Asia countries should control CO 2 emissions to reach best efficiency score.

  20. Relating multifrequency radar backscattering to forest biomass: Modeling and AIRSAR measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Guo-Qing; Ranson, K. Jon

    1992-01-01

    During the last several years, significant efforts in microwave remote sensing were devoted to relating forest parameters to radar backscattering coefficients. These and other studies showed that in most cases, the longer wavelength (i.e. P band) and cross-polarization (HV) backscattering had higher sensitivity and better correlation to forest biomass. This research examines this relationship in a northern forest area through both backscatter modeling and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data analysis. The field measurements were used to estimate stand biomass from forest weight tables. The backscatter model described by Sun et al. was modified to simulate the backscattering coefficients with respect to stand biomass. The average number of trees per square meter or radar resolution cell, and the average tree height or diameter breast height (dbh) in the forest stand are the driving parameters of the model. The rest of the soil surface, orientation, and size distributions of leaves and branches, remain unchanged in the simulations.

  1. Using maximum entropy modeling to identify and prioritize red spruce forest habitat in West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan R. Beane; James S. Rentch; Thomas M. Schuler

    2013-01-01

    Red spruce forests in West Virginia are found in island-like distributions at high elevations and provide essential habitat for the endangered Cheat Mountain salamander and the recently delisted Virginia northern flying squirrel. Therefore, it is important to identify restoration priorities of red spruce forests. Maximum entropy modeling was used to identify areas of...

  2. Forest Conservation Opportunity Areas - Conservative Model (ECO_RES.COA_FORREST66)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This layer designates areas with potential for forest conservation. These are areas of natural or semi-natural forest land cover patches that area at least 395 meters away from roads and away from patch edges. OAs were modeled by creating distance grids using the National Land Cover Database and the Census Bureau's TIGER road files.

  3. Forest Conservation Opportunity Areas - Liberal Model (ECO_RES.COA_FORREST33)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This layer designates areas with potential for forest conservation. These are areas of natural or semi-natural forest land cover patches that are at least 75 meters away from roads and away from patch edges. OAs were modeled by creating distance grids using the National Land Cover Database and the Census Bureau's TIGER roads files.

  4. Strategic management of five deciduous forest invaders using Microstegium vimineum as a model species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cynthia D. Huebner

    2007-01-01

    This paper links key plant invasive traits with key landscape traits to define strategic management for five common forest invaders, using empirical data of Microstegium vimineum dispersal into forests as a preliminary model. Microstegium vimineum exhibits an Allee effect that may allow management to focus on treating its source...

  5. Fuel treatment effects on tree-based forest carbon storage and emissions under modeled wildfire scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Hurteau; M. North

    2009-01-01

    Forests are viewed as a potential sink for carbon (C) that might otherwise contribute to climate change. It is unclear, however, how to manage forests with frequent fire regimes to maximize C storage while reducing C emissions from prescribed burns or wildfire. We modeled the effects of eight different fuel treatments on treebased C storage and release over a century,...

  6. ShapeSelectForest: a new r package for modeling landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary Meyer; Xiyue Liao; Gretchen Moisen; Elizabeth Freeman

    2015-01-01

    We present a new R package called ShapeSelectForest recently posted to the Comprehensive R Archival Network. The package was developed to fit nonparametric shape-restricted regression splines to time series of Landsat imagery for the purpose of modeling, mapping, and monitoring annual forest disturbance dynamics over nearly three decades. For each pixel and spectral...

  7. Modelling trends in soil solution concentrations under five forest-soil combinations in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salm, van der C.; Vries, de W.; Kros, J.

    1996-01-01

    The influence of forest and soil properties on changes in soil solution concentration upon a reduction deposition was examined for five forest-soil combinations with the dynamic RESAM model. Predicted concentrations decreased in the direction Douglas fir - Scotch pine - oak, due to decreased

  8. Methodology for estimating soil carbon for the forest carbon budget model of the United States, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    L. S. Heath; R. A. Birdsey; D. W. Williams

    2002-01-01

    The largest carbon (C) pool in United States forests is the soil C pool. We present methodology and soil C pool estimates used in the FORCARB model, which estimates and projects forest carbon budgets for the United States. The methodology balances knowledge, uncertainties, and ease of use. The estimates are calculated using the USDA Natural Resources Conservation...

  9. Simulating ectomycorrhiza in boreal forests: implementing ectomycorrhizal fungi model MYCOFON in CoupModel (v5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hongxing; Meyer, Astrid; Jansson, Per-Erik; Svensson, Magnus; Rütting, Tobias; Klemedtsson, Leif

    2018-02-01

    The symbiosis between plants and Ectomycorrhizal fungi (ECM) is shown to considerably influence the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes between the soil, rhizosphere, and plants in boreal forest ecosystems. However, ECM are either neglected or presented as an implicit, undynamic term in most ecosystem models, which can potentially reduce the predictive power of models.In order to investigate the necessity of an explicit consideration of ECM in ecosystem models, we implement the previously developed MYCOFON model into a detailed process-based, soil-plant-atmosphere model, Coup-MYCOFON, which explicitly describes the C and N fluxes between ECM and roots. This new Coup-MYCOFON model approach (ECM explicit) is compared with two simpler model approaches: one containing ECM implicitly as a dynamic uptake of organic N considering the plant roots to represent the ECM (ECM implicit), and the other a static N approach in which plant growth is limited to a fixed N level (nonlim). Parameter uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian calibration in which the model outputs are constrained to current forest growth and soil C / N ratio for four forest sites along a climate and N deposition gradient in Sweden and simulated over a 100-year period.The nonlim approach could not describe the soil C / N ratio due to large overestimation of soil N sequestration but simulate the forest growth reasonably well. The ECM implicit and explicit approaches both describe the soil C / N ratio well but slightly underestimate the forest growth. The implicit approach simulated lower litter production and soil respiration than the explicit approach. The ECM explicit Coup-MYCOFON model provides a more detailed description of internal ecosystem fluxes and feedbacks of C and N between plants, soil, and ECM. Our modeling highlights the need to incorporate ECM and organic N uptake into ecosystem models, and the nonlim approach is not recommended for future long-term soil C and N predictions. We also

  10. GAP Analysis Program (GAP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — The Kansas GAP Analysis Land Cover database depicts 43 land cover classes for the state of Kansas. The database was generated using a two-stage hybrid classification...

  11. Stochastic model prediction of the Kovacs' ``expansion gap'' effect for volume relaxation in glassy polymers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvedev, Grigori; Caruthers, James

    2015-03-01

    The classic series of experiments by A. Kovacs on volume relaxation following temperature jumps for poly(vinyl acetate), PVAc, in the Tg region revealed the richness and complexity of the viscoelastic behavior of glassy materials. Over the years no theoretical model has been able to predict all the features of the Kovacs data, where the so-called ``expansion gap'' effect proved to be particularly challenging. Specifically, for a series of up-jump experiments with different initial temperatures, Ti, but with the same final temperature, as the relaxation approaches equilibrium it would be expected that the effective relaxation time would be the same regardless of Ti; however, Kovacs observed that the dependence on Ti persisted seemingly all the way to equilibrium. In this communication we will show that a recently developed Stochastic Constitutive Model (SCM) that explicitly acknowledges the nano-scale dynamic heterogeneity of glasses can capture the ``expansion gap'' as well as the rest of the Kovacs data set for PVAc. It will be shown that the success of the SCM is due to its inherent thermo-rheological complexity.

  12. The intrinsic periodic fluctuation of forest: a theoretical model based on diffusion equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, J.; Lin, G., Sr.

    2015-12-01

    Most forest dynamic models predict the stable state of size structure as well as the total basal area and biomass in mature forest, the variation of forest stands are mainly driven by environmental factors after the equilibrium has been reached. However, although the predicted power-law size-frequency distribution does exist in analysis of many forest inventory data sets, the estimated distribution exponents are always shifting between -2 and -4, and has a positive correlation with the mean value of DBH. This regular pattern can not be explained by the effects of stochastic disturbances on forest stands. Here, we adopted the partial differential equation (PDE) approach to deduce the systematic behavior of an ideal forest, by solving the diffusion equation under the restricted condition of invariable resource occupation, a periodic solution was gotten to meet the variable performance of forest size structure while the former models with stable performance were just a special case of the periodic solution when the fluctuation frequency equals zero. In our results, the number of individuals in each size class was the function of individual growth rate(G), mortality(M), size(D) and time(T), by borrowing the conclusion of allometric theory on these parameters, the results perfectly reflected the observed "exponent-mean DBH" relationship and also gave a logically complete description to the time varying form of forest size-frequency distribution. Our model implies that the total biomass of a forest can never reach a stable equilibrium state even in the absence of disturbances and climate regime shift, we propose the idea of intrinsic fluctuation property of forest and hope to provide a new perspective on forest dynamics and carbon cycle research.

  13. Integration of ground and satellite data to model Mediterranean forest processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiesi, M.; Fibbi, L.; Genesio, L.; Gioli, B.; Magno, R.; Maselli, F.; Moriondo, M.; Vaccari, F. P.

    2011-06-01

    The current work presents the testing of a modeling strategy that has been recently developed to simulate the gross and net carbon fluxes of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The strategy is based on the use of a NDVI-driven parametric model, C-Fix, and of a biogeochemical model, BIOME-BGC, whose outputs are combined to simulate the behavior of forest ecosystems at different development stages. The performances of the modeling strategy are evaluated in three Italian study sites (San Rossore, Lecceto and Pianosa), where carbon fluxes are being measured through the eddy correlation technique. These sites are characterized by variable Mediterranean climates and are covered by different types of forest vegetation (pine wood, Holm oak forest and Macchia, respectively). The results of the tests indicate that the modeling strategy is generally capable of reproducing monthly GPP and NEE patterns in all three study sites. The highest accuracy is obtained in the most mature, homogenous pine wood of San Rossore, while the worst results are found in the Lecceto forest, where there are the most heterogeneous terrain, soil and vegetation conditions. The main error sources are identified in the inaccurate definition of the model inputs, particularly those regulating the site water budgets, which exert a strong control on forest productivity during the Mediterranean summer dry season. In general, the incorporation of NDVI-derived fAPAR estimates corrects for most of these errors and renders the forest flux simulations more stable and accurate.

  14. Bridging the gap between data analysis and data collection in FIA and forest monitoring globally: successes, research findings, and lessons learned from the Western US and Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leif. Mortenson

    2015-01-01

    Globally, national forest inventories (NFI) require a large work force typically consisting of multiple teams spread across multiple locations in order to successfully capture a given nation’s forest resources. This is true of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program in the US and in many inventories in developing countries that are supported by USFS...

  15. Conceptualizing Telehealth in Nursing Practice: Advancing a Conceptual Model to Fill a Virtual Gap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagel, Daniel A; Penner, Jamie L

    2016-03-01

    Increasingly nurses use various telehealth technologies to deliver health care services; however, there has been a lag in research and generation of empirical knowledge to support nursing practice in this expanding field. One challenge to generating knowledge is a gap in development of a comprehensive conceptual model or theoretical framework to illustrate relationships of concepts and phenomena inherent to adoption of a broad range of telehealth technologies to holistic nursing practice. A review of the literature revealed eight published conceptual models, theoretical frameworks, or similar entities applicable to nursing practice. Many of these models focus exclusively on use of telephones and four were generated from qualitative studies, but none comprehensively reflect complexities of bridging nursing process and elements of nursing practice into use of telehealth. The purpose of this article is to present a review of existing conceptual models and frameworks, discuss predominant themes and features of these models, and present a comprehensive conceptual model for telehealth nursing practice synthesized from this literature for consideration and further development. This conceptual model illustrates characteristics of, and relationships between, dimensions of telehealth practice to guide research and knowledge development in provision of holistic person-centered care delivery to individuals by nurses through telehealth technologies. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. Integrating forest growth and harvesting cost models to improve forest management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.E. Baumgras; C.B. LeDoux

    1991-01-01

    Two methods of estimating harvesting revenue--reported stumpage prices - and delivered prices minus estimated harvesting and haul costs were compared by estimating entry cash flows and rotation net present value for three simulated even-aged forest management options that included 1 to 3 thinnings over a 90 year rotation. Revenue estimates derived from stumpage prices...

  17. Modelling long-term water yield effects of forest management in a Norway spruce forest

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Yu, X.; Lamačová, A.; Duffy, Ch.; Krám, P.; Hruška, Jakub; White, T.; Bhatt, G.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 2 (2015), s. 174-191 ISSN 0262-6667 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Lysina critical zone observatory * PIHM * Norway spruce * forest management Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.182, year: 2015

  18. Sampling forest regeneration across northern U.S. forests: filling a void in regeneration model input

    Science.gov (United States)

    William H. McWilliams; Charles D. Canham; Randall S. Morin; Katherine Johnson; Paul Roth; James A. Westfall

    2012-01-01

    The Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of the Northern Research Station (NRS-FIA) has implemented new Advance Tree Seedling Regeneration (ATSR) protocols that include measurements of seedlings down to 2 inches in height. The addition of ATSR protocols is part of an evaluation of NRS-FIA Phase 3 indicator variables to increase sampling intensity from 1/96,000 acres...

  19. Validation of 3D-CMCC Forest Ecosystem Model (v.5.1) against eddy covariance data for 10 European forest sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Collalti, A.; Marconi, S.; Ibrom, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    This study evaluates the performances of the new version (v.5.1) of 3D-CMCC Forest Ecosystem Model (FEM) in simulating gross primary productivity (GPP), against eddy covariance GPP data for 10 FLUXNET forest sites across Europe. A new carbon allocation module, coupled with new both phenological...... over Europe without a site-related calibration, the model has been deliberately parametrized with a single set of species-specific parametrizations for each forest ecosystem. The model consistently reproduces both in timing and in magnitude daily and monthly GPP variability across all sites...... sites we evaluate whether a more accurate representation of forest structural characteristics (i.e. cohorts, forest layers) and species composition can improve model results. In two of the three sites results reveal that model slightly increases its performances although, statistically speaking...

  20. Sodium fast reactor gaps analysis of computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbajo, Juan (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN); Jeong, Hae-Yong (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon, Korea); Wigeland, Roald (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Corradini, Michael (University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI); Schmidt, Rodney Cannon; Thomas, Justin (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Wei, Tom (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Sofu, Tanju (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Ludewig, Hans (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY); Tobita, Yoshiharu (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Ohshima, Hiroyuki (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Serre, Frederic (Centre d' %C3%94etudes nucl%C3%94eaires de Cadarache %3CU%2B2013%3E CEA, France)

    2011-06-01

    This report summarizes the results of an expert-opinion elicitation activity designed to qualitatively assess the status and capabilities of currently available computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety calculations of advanced sodium fast reactors, and identify important gaps. The twelve-member panel consisted of representatives from five U.S. National Laboratories (SNL, ANL, INL, ORNL, and BNL), the University of Wisconsin, the KAERI, the JAEA, and the CEA. The major portion of this elicitation activity occurred during a two-day meeting held on Aug. 10-11, 2010 at Argonne National Laboratory. There were two primary objectives of this work: (1) Identify computer codes currently available for SFR accident analysis and reactor safety calculations; and (2) Assess the status and capability of current US computer codes to adequately model the required accident scenarios and associated phenomena, and identify important gaps. During the review, panel members identified over 60 computer codes that are currently available in the international community to perform different aspects of SFR safety analysis for various event scenarios and accident categories. A brief description of each of these codes together with references (when available) is provided. An adaptation of the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) for computational modeling and simulation is described for use in this work. The panel's assessment of the available US codes is presented in the form of nine tables, organized into groups of three for each of three risk categories considered: anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBA), and beyond design basis accidents (BDBA). A set of summary conclusions are drawn from the results obtained. At the highest level, the panel judged that current US code capabilities are adequate for licensing given reasonable margins, but expressed concern that US code development activities had stagnated and that the

  1. Including Effects of Water Stress on Dead Organic Matter Decay to a Forest Carbon Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Lee, J.; Han, S. H.; Kim, S.; Son, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Decay of dead organic matter is a key process of carbon (C) cycling in forest ecosystems. The change in decay rate depends on temperature sensitivity and moisture conditions. The Forest Biomass and Dead organic matter Carbon (FBDC) model includes a decay sub-model considering temperature sensitivity, yet does not consider moisture conditions as drivers of the decay rate change. This study aimed to improve the FBDC model by including a water stress function to the decay sub-model. Also, soil C sequestration under climate change with the FBDC model including the water stress function was simulated. The water stress functions were determined with data from decomposition study on Quercus variabilis forests and Pinus densiflora forests of Korea, and adjustment parameters of the functions were determined for both species. The water stress functions were based on the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Including the water stress function increased the explained variances of the decay rate by 19% for the Q. variabilis forests and 7% for the P. densiflora forests, respectively. The increase of the explained variances resulted from large difference in temperature range and precipitation range across the decomposition study plots. During the period of experiment, the mean annual temperature range was less than 3°C, while the annual precipitation ranged from 720mm to 1466mm. Application of the water stress functions to the FBDC model constrained increasing trend of temperature sensitivity under climate change, and thus increased the model-estimated soil C sequestration (Mg C ha-1) by 6.6 for the Q. variabilis forests and by 3.1 for the P. densiflora forests, respectively. The addition of water stress functions increased reliability of the decay rate estimation and could contribute to reducing the bias in estimating soil C sequestration under varying moisture condition. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by Korea Forest Service (2017044B10-1719-BB01)

  2. Emergence of nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests: hypotheses from simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Waring, B. G.; Xu, X.; Trierweiler, A.; Werden, L. K.; Wang, G.; Zhu, Q.; Powers, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    It is unclear to what extent tropical dry forest productivity may be limited by nutrients. Direct assessment of nutrient limitation through fertilization experiments has been rare, and paradigms pertaining to other ecosystems may not extend to tropical dry forests. For example, because dry tropical forests have a lower water supply than moist tropical forests, dry forests can have lower decomposition rates, higher soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations, and a more open nitrogen cycle than moist forests. We used a mechanistic, numerical model to generate hypotheses about nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests. The model dynamically couples ED2 (vegetation dynamics), MEND (biogeochemistry), and N-COM (plant-microbe competition for nutrients). Here, the MEND-component of the model has been extended to include nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. We focus on simulation of sixteen 25m x 25m plots in Costa Rica where a fertilization experiment has been underway since 2015. Baseline simulations are characterized by both nitrogen and phosphorus limitation of vegetation. Fertilization with N and P increased vegetation biomass, with N fertilization having a somewhat stronger effect. Nutrient limitation was also sensitive to climate and was more pronounced during drought periods. Overflow respiration was identified as a key process that mitigated nutrient limitation. These results suggest that, despite often having richer soils than tropical moist forests, tropical dry forests can also become nutrient-limited. If the climate becomes drier in the next century, as is expected for Central America, drier soils may decrease microbial activity and exacerbate nutrient limitation. The importance of overflow respiration underscores the need for appropriate treatment of microbial dynamics in ecosystem models. Ongoing and new nutrient fertilization experiments will present opportunities for testing whether, and how, nutrient limitation may indeed be emerging in tropical dry

  3. National forest economic clusters: a new model for assessing national-forest-based natural resources products and services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas D. Rojas

    2007-01-01

    National forest lands encompass numerous rural and urban communities. Some national-forest-based communities lie embedded within national forests, and others reside just outside the official boundaries of national forests. The urban and rural communities within or near national forest lands include a wide variety of historical traditions and cultural values that affect...

  4. Management Models of Forest Resources in the Atlas Mountain ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    timber forest products are under-used. Governments are trying to improve the situation, but their efforts tend to be purely technical and fail to address the social and institutional dimensions of the problem. This project will examine ...

  5. Modeling the impacts of climate variability and hurricane on carbon sequestration in a coastal forested wetland in South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Carl C. Trettin; Changsheng Li; Ge Sun; Devendra M. Amatya; Harbin Li

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of hurricane disturbance and climate variability on carbon dynamics in a coastal forested wetland in South Carolina of USA were simulated using the Forest-DNDC model with a spatially explicit approach. The model was validated using the measured biomass before and after Hurricane Hugo and the biomass inventories in 2006 and 2007, showed that the Forest-DNDC...

  6. Modelling basin-wide variations in Amazon forest photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercado, Lina; Lloyd, Jon; Domingues, Tomas; Fyllas, Nikolaos; Patino, Sandra; Dolman, Han; Sitch, Stephen

    2010-05-01

    type parameter values are assigned and assumed invariant with environmental condition but also ii) these models use leaf N as a factor that limit photosynthesis. Instead, since leaf P may also limit photosynthesis of the tropical forest (Reich et al. 2009), we use a more specific description of photosynthetic capacity across the basin based on the model evaluation done in Mercado et al. (2009) in which canopy photosynthetic capacity is related to foliar P but also using the relationships derived between canopy photosynthesis and leaf nutrients (N and P) from measurements in tropical trees (Domingues et al.In review). A study of this kind can inform the global vegetation/climate community as to the need for variability in key model parameters in order to accurately simulate carbon fluxes across the Amazon basin. Baker, T. R., et al. 2004. Increasing biomass in Amazonian forest plots. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 359 (1443):353-365. Phillips, O. L. et al. 2004. Pattern and process in Amazon tree turnover, 1976-2001. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 359 (1443):381-407. Malhi, Y. et al. 2004. The above-ground coarse wood productivity of 104 Neotropical forest plots. Global Change Biology 10 (5):563-591. Mercado, L.M. et al. 2009. Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global land carbon sink. Nature 458 (7241), 1014. Cox, P. M. et al. 1998. A canopy conductance and photosynthesis model for use in a GCM land surface scheme. Journal of Hydrology 213 (1-4):79-9 Sitch, S. et al. 2003. Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology 9 (2):161-185. Reich B. R. et al. 2009. Leaf phosphorus influences the photosynhtesis-nitrogen relation: a cross-biome analysis of 314 species. Oecologia, doi 10.1007/s00442-009-1291-3. Domingues, T. et al. In review. Co-limitation of

  7. Cell motility in models of wounded human skin is improved by Gap27 despite raised glucose, insulin and IGFBP-5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, Catherine S.; Berends, Rebecca F. [Department of Life Sciences, School of Health and Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, 70 Cowcaddens Road, Glasgow G4 0BA (United Kingdom); Flint, David J. [Strathclyde Institute of Pharmacy and Biomedical Sciences, University of Strathclyde, 161 Cathedral Street, Glasgow G4 0RE (United Kingdom); Martin, Patricia E.M., E-mail: Patricia.Martin@gcu.ac.uk [Department of Life Sciences, School of Health and Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, 70 Cowcaddens Road, Glasgow G4 0BA (United Kingdom)

    2013-02-15

    Reducing Cx43 expression stimulates skin wound healing. This is mimicked in models when Cx43 function is blocked by the connexin mimetic peptide Gap27. IGF-I also stimulates wound healing with IGFBP-5 attenuating its actions. Further, the IGF-I to IGFBP-5 ratio is altered in diabetic skin, where wound closure is impaired. We investigated whether Gap27 remains effective in augmenting scrape-wound closure in human skin wound models simulating diabetes-induced changes, using culture conditions with raised glucose, insulin and IGFBP-5. Gap27 increased scrape-wound closure in normal glucose and insulin (NGI) and to a lesser extent in high glucose and insulin (HGI). IGF-I enhanced scrape-wound closure in keratinocytes whereas IGFBP-5 inhibited this response. Gap27 overcame the inhibitory effects of IGFBP-5 on IGF-I activity. Connexin-mediated communication (CMC) was reduced in HGI, despite raised Cx43, and Gap27 significantly decreased CMC in NGI and HGI. IGF-I and IGFBP-5 did not affect CMC. IGF-I increased keratinocyte proliferation in NGI, and Gap27 increased proliferation in NGI to a greater extent than in HGI. We conclude that IGF-I and Gap27 stimulate scrape-wound closure by independent mechanisms with Gap27 inhibiting Cx43 function. Gap27 can enhance wound closure in diabetic conditions, irrespective of the IGF-I:IGFBP-5 balance. - Highlights: ► Human organotypic and keratinocyte ‘diabetic’ skin models were used to demonstrate the ability of Gap27 to improve scrape-wound closure. ► Gap27 enhanced scrape-wound closure by reducing Cx43-mediated communication, whereas IGFBP-5 retarded cell migration. ► IGF-I and IGFBP-5 did not affect connexin-mediated pathways. ► Gap27 can override altered glucose, insulin, IGF-I, and IGFBP-5 in ‘diabetic’ skin models and thus has therapeutic potential.

  8. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  9. Biogeochemical modelling vs. tree-ring data - comparison of forest ecosystem productivity estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Barcza, Zoltán; Hidy, Dóra; Paladinić, Elvis; Kern, Anikó; Marjanović, Hrvoje

    2017-04-01

    Forest ecosystems are sensitive to environmental changes as well as human-induce disturbances, therefore process-based models with integrated management modules represent valuable tool for estimating and forecasting forest ecosystem productivity under changing conditions. Biogeochemical model Biome-BGC simulates carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes, and it is widely used for different terrestrial ecosystems. It was modified and parameterised by many researchers in the past to meet the specific local conditions. In this research, we used recently published improved version of the model Biome-BGCMuSo (BBGCMuSo), with multilayer soil module and integrated management module. The aim of our research is to validate modelling results of forest ecosystem productivity (NPP) from BBGCMuSo model with observed productivity estimated from an extensive dataset of tree-rings. The research was conducted in two distinct forest complexes of managed Pedunculate oak in SE Europe (Croatia), namely Pokupsko basin and Spačva basin. First, we parameterized BBGCMuSo model at a local level using eddy-covariance (EC) data from Jastrebarsko EC site. Parameterized model was used for the assessment of productivity on a larger scale. Results of NPP assessment with BBGCMuSo are compared with NPP estimated from tree ring data taken from trees on over 100 plots in both forest complexes. Keywords: Biome-BGCMuSo, forest productivity, model parameterization, NPP, Pedunculate oak

  10. Are more complex physiological models of forest ecosystems better choices for plot and regional predictions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson

    2016-01-01

    Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models...

  11. Use of generalized linear models and digital data in a forest inventory of Northern Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moisen, Gretchen G.; Edwards, Thomas C.

    1999-01-01

    Forest inventories, like those conducted by the Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA) in the Rocky Mountain Region, are under increased pressure to produce better information at reduced costs. Here we describe our efforts in Utah to merge satellite-based information with forest inventory data for the purposes of reducing the costs of estimates of forest population totals and providing spatial depiction of forest resources. We illustrate how generalized linear models can be used to construct approximately unbiased and efficient estimates of population totals while providing a mechanism for prediction in space for mapping of forest structure. We model forest type and timber volume of five tree species groups as functions of a variety of predictor variables in the northern Utah mountains. Predictor variables include elevation, aspect, slope, geographic coordinates, as well as vegetation cover types based on satellite data from both the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Thematic Mapper (TM) platforms. We examine the relative precision of estimates of area by forest type and mean cubic-foot volumes under six different models, including the traditional double sampling for stratification strategy. Only very small gains in precision were realized through the use of expensive photointerpreted or TM-based data for stratification, while models based on topography and spatial coordinates alone were competitive. We also compare the predictive capability of the models through various map accuracy measures. The models including the TM-based vegetation performed best overall, while topography and spatial coordinates alone provided substantial information at very low cost.

  12. Modeling seasonal surface temperature variations in secondary tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Sen; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo

    2017-10-01

    Secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) provide important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and nutrient cycle regulation. However, their biogeophysical processes at the canopy-atmosphere interface remain unknown, limiting our understanding of how this endangered ecosystem influences, and responds to the ongoing global warming. To facilitate future development of conservation policies, this study characterized the seasonal land surface temperature (LST) behavior of three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late) of a TDF, at the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. A total of 38 Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data and the Surface Reflectance (SR) product were utilized to model LST time series from July 2013 to July 2016 using a radiative transfer equation (RTE) algorithm. We further related the LST time series to seven vegetation indices which reflect different properties of TDFs, and soil moisture data obtained from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Results showed that the LST in the dry season was 15-20 K higher than in the wet season at SRNP. We found that the early successional stages were about 6-8 K warmer than the intermediate successional stages and were 9-10 K warmer than the late successional stages in the middle of the dry season; meanwhile, a minimum LST difference (0-1 K) was observed at the end of the wet season. Leaf phenology and canopy architecture explained most LST variations in both dry and wet seasons. However, our analysis revealed that it is precipitation that ultimately determines the LST variations through both biogeochemical (leaf phenology) and biogeophysical processes (evapotranspiration) of the plants. Results of this study could help physiological modeling studies in secondary TDFs.

  13. Evaluation and operationalization of a novel forest detrainment modeling approach for computational snow avalanche simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teich, M.; Feistl, T.; Fischer, J.; Bartelt, P.; Bebi, P.; Christen, M.; Grêt-Regamey, A.

    2013-12-01

    Two-dimensional avalanche simulation software operating in three-dimensional terrain are widely used for hazard zoning and engineering to predict runout distances and impact pressures of snow avalanche events. Mountain forests are an effective biological protection measure; however, the protective capacity of forests to decelerate or even to stop avalanches that start within forested areas or directly above the treeline is seldom considered in this context. In particular, runout distances of small- to medium-scale avalanches are strongly influenced by the structural conditions of forests in the avalanche path. This varying decelerating effect has rarely been addressed or implemented in avalanche simulation. We present an evaluation and operationalization of a novel forest detrainment modeling approach implemented in the avalanche simulation software RAMMS. The new approach accounts for the effect of forests in the avalanche path by detraining mass, which leads to a deceleration and runout shortening of avalanches. The extracted avalanche mass caught behind trees stops immediately and, therefore, is instantly subtracted from the flow and the momentum of the stopped mass is removed from the total momentum of the avalanche flow. This relationship is parameterized by the empirical detrainment coefficient K [Pa] which accounts for the braking power of different forest types per unit area. To define K dependent on specific forest characteristics, we simulated 40 well-documented small- to medium-scale avalanches which released in and ran through forests with varying K-values. Comparing two-dimensional simulation results with one-dimensional field observations for a high number of avalanche events and simulations manually is however time consuming and rather subjective. In order to process simulation results in a comprehensive and standardized way, we used a recently developed automatic evaluation and comparison method defining runout distances based on a pressure

  14. Integrating remote sensing and terrain data in forest fire modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medler, Michael Johns

    Forest fire policies are changing. Managers now face conflicting imperatives to re-establish pre-suppression fire regimes, while simultaneously preventing resource destruction. They must, therefore, understand the spatial patterns of fires. Geographers can facilitate this understanding by developing new techniques for mapping fire behavior. This dissertation develops such techniques for mapping recent fires and using these maps to calibrate models of potential fire hazards. In so doing, it features techniques that strive to address the inherent complexity of modeling the combinations of variables found in most ecological systems. Image processing techniques were used to stratify the elements of terrain, slope, elevation, and aspect. These stratification images were used to assure sample placement considered the role of terrain in fire behavior. Examination of multiple stratification images indicated samples were placed representatively across a controlled range of scales. The incorporation of terrain data also improved preliminary fire hazard classification accuracy by 40%, compared with remotely sensed data alone. A Kauth-Thomas transformation (KT) of pre-fire and post-fire Thematic Mapper (TM) remotely sensed data produced brightness, greenness, and wetness images. Image subtraction indicated fire induced change in brightness, greenness, and wetness. Field data guided a fuzzy classification of these change images. Because fuzzy classification can characterize a continuum of a phenomena where discrete classification may produce artificial borders, fuzzy classification was found to offer a range of fire severity information unavailable with discrete classification. These mapped fire patterns were used to calibrate a model of fire hazards for the entire mountain range. Pre-fire TM, and a digital elevation model produced a set of co-registered images. Training statistics were developed from 30 polygons associated with the previously mapped fire severity. Fuzzy

  15. MODELING URBAN DYNAMICS USING RANDOM FOREST: IMPLEMENTING ROC AND TOC FOR MODEL EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ahmadlou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The importance of spatial accuracy of land use/cover change maps necessitates the use of high performance models. To reach this goal, calibrating machine learning (ML approaches to model land use/cover conversions have received increasing interest among the scholars. This originates from the strength of these techniques as they powerfully account for the complex relationships underlying urban dynamics. Compared to other ML techniques, random forest has rarely been used for modeling urban growth. This paper, drawing on information from the multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2015, calibrates a random forest regression (RFR model to quantify the variable importance and simulation of urban change spatial patterns. The results and performance of RFR model were evaluated using two complementary tools, relative operating characteristics (ROC and total operating characteristics (TOC, by overlaying the map of observed change and the modeled suitability map for land use change (error map. The suitability map produced by RFR model showed 82.48% area under curve for the ROC model which indicates a very good performance and highlights its appropriateness for simulating urban growth.

  16. Procedure to Solve Network DEA Based on a Virtual Gap Measurement Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuh-hwa Franklin Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Network DEA models assess production systems that contain a set of network-structured subsystems. Each subsystem has input and output measures from and to the external network and has intermediate measures that link to other subsystems. Most published studies demonstrate how to employ DEA models to establish network DEA models. Neither static nor dynamic network DEA models adjust the links. This paper applies the virtual gap measurement (VGM model to construct a mixed integer program to solve dynamic network DEA problems. The mixed integer program sets the total numbers of “as-input” and “as-output” equal to the total number of links in the objective function. To obtain the best-practice efficiency, each DMU determines a set of weights for inputs, outputs, and links. The links are played either “as-input” or “as-output.” Input and as-input measures reduce slack, whereas output and as-output measures increase slacks to attain their target on the production frontier.

  17. Modeled CO2 Emissions from Coastal Wetland Transitions to Other Land Uses: Tidal Marshes, Mangrove Forests, and Seagrass Beds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine E. Lovelock

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The sediments of coastal wetlands contain large stores of carbon which are vulnerable to oxidation once disturbed, resulting in high levels of CO2 emissions that may be avoided if coastal ecosystems are conserved or restored. We used a simple model to estimate CO2 emissions from mangrove forests, seagrass beds, and tidal marshes based on known decomposition rates for organic matter in these ecosystems under either oxic or anoxic conditions combined with assumptions of the proportion of sediment carbon being deposited in either oxic or anoxic environments following a disturbance of the habitat. Our model found that over 40 years after disturbance the cumulative CO2 emitted from tidal marshes, mangrove forests, and seagrass beds were ~70–80% of the initial carbon stocks in the top meter of the sediment. Comparison of our estimates of CO2 emissions with empirical studies suggests that (1 assuming 50% of organic material moves to an oxic environment after disturbance gives rise to estimates that are similar to CO2 emissions reported for tidal marshes; (2 field measurements of CO2 emissions in disturbed mangrove forests were generally higher than our modeled emissions that assumed 50% of organic matter was deposited in oxic conditions, suggesting higher proportions of organic matter may be exposed to oxic conditions after disturbance in mangrove ecosystems; and (3 the generally low observed rates of CO2 emissions from disturbed seagrasses compared to our estimates, assuming removal of 50% of the organic matter to oxic environments, suggests that lower proportions may be exposed to oxic conditions in seagrass ecosystems. There are significant gaps in our knowledge of the fate of wetland sediment carbon in the marine environment after disturbance. Greater knowledge of the distribution, form, decomposition, and emission rates of wetland sediment carbon after disturbance would help to improve models.

  18. Measuring and modeling carbon balance in mountainous Northern Rocky mixed conifer forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Berardi, D.; Stenzel, J.

    2016-12-01

    Drought and wildfire caused by changing precipitation patterns, increased temperatures, increased fuel loads, and decades of fire suppression are reducing forest carbon uptake from local to continental scales. This trend is especially widespread in Idaho and the intermountain west and has important implications for climate change and forest management options. Given the key role of forests in climate regulation, understanding forest response to drought and the feedbacks to the atmosphere is a key research and policy-relevant priority globally. As temperature, fire, and precipitation regimes continue to change and there is increased risk of forest mortality, measurements and modeling at temporal and spatial scales that are conducive to understanding the impacts and underlying mechanisms of carbon and nutrient cycling become critically important. Until recently, sub-daily measurements of ecosystem carbon balance have been limited in remote, mountainous terrain (e.g Northern Rocky mountain forests). Here, we combine new measurement technology and state-of-the-art ecosystem modeling to determine the impact of drought on the total carbon balance of a mature, mixed-conifer forest in Northern Idaho. Our findings indicate that drought had no impact on aboveground NPP, despite early growing season reductions in soil moisture and fine root biomass compared to non-drought years in the past. Modeled estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP) suggest that a simultaneous reduction in heterotrophic respiration increased the carbon sink for this forest. This has important implications for forest management, such as thinning where the objectives are to increase forest resilience to fire and drought, but may decrease NEP.

  19. A compartment model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

    1978-01-01

    A linear compartment donor-controlled model was designed to describe and simulate the behaviour of plutonium ( 239 , 240 Pu) in a contaminated deciduous forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the Pu in the ecosystem resides in forest biota. Soil is the major repository of Pu in the forest, and reciprocal exchanges of Pu between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of Pu. Variation in predicted steady state amounts of Pu in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicated that ones ability to develop reliable models of Pu transport in ecosystems will improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in Pu data. (author)

  20. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology, ... This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. ..... For qualitative variables, it uses the.

  1. Testing of models of stomatal ozone fluxes with field measurements in a mixed Mediterranean forest

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fares, S.; Matteucci, G.; Mugnozza, S.; Morani, A.; Calfapietra, Carlo; Salvatori, E.; Fusaro, L.; Manes, F.; Loreto, F.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 67, MAR (2013), s. 242-251 ISSN 1352-2310 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Ozone fluxes * Stomatal conductance models * GPP * Mediterranean forest Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.062, year: 2013

  2. Modeling the Daly Gap: The Influence of Latent Heat Production in Controlling Magma Extraction and Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, B. K.; Ghiorso, M. S.; Bachmann, O.; Dufek, J.

    2011-12-01

    A century-old issue in volcanology is the origin of the gap in chemical compositions observed in magmatic series on ocean islands and arcs - the "Daly Gap". If the gap forms during differentiation from a mafic parent, models that predict the dynamics of magma extraction as a function of chemical composition must simulate a process that results in volumetrically biased, bimodal compositions of erupted magmas. The probability of magma extraction is controlled by magma dynamical processes, which have a complex response to magmatic heat evolution. Heat loss from the magmatic system is far from a simple, monotonic function of time. It is modified by the crystallization sequence, chamber margin heat flux, and is buffered by latent heat production. We use chemical and thermal calculations of MELTS (Ghiorso & Sack, 1995) as input to the physical model of QUANTUM (Dufek & Bachmann, 2010) to predict crystallinity windows of most probable magma extraction. We modeled two case studies: volcanism on Tenerife, Canary Islands, and the Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) of Campi Flegrei, Italy. Both preserve a basanitic to phonolitic lineage and have comparable total alkali concentrations; however, CI has high and Tenerife has low K2O/Na2O. Modeled thermal histories of differentiation for the two sequences contrast strongly. In Tenerife, the rate of latent heat production is almost always greater than sensible heat production, with spikes in the ratio of latent to sensible heats of up to 40 associated with the appearance of Fe-Ti oxides at near 50% crystallization. This punctuated heat production must cause magma temperature change to stall or slow in time. The extended time spent at ≈50% crystallinity, associated with dynamical processes that enhance melt extraction near 50% crystallinity, suggests the magma composition at this interval should be common. In Tenerife, the modeled composition coincides with that of the first peak in the bimodal frequency-composition distribution. In our

  3. Evaluating the impacts of slope aspect on forest dynamic succession in Northwest China based on FAREAST model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shanshan; Ma, Jianyong; Shugart, Herman H.; Yan, Xiaodong

    2018-03-01

    Mountain forests provide the main water resources and lumber for Northwest China. The understanding of the differences in forests growing among individual slope aspects in mountainous regions is of great significance to the wise management and planning of these natural systems. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of slope aspect on forest dynamic succession in Northwest China by using the dynamic forest succession model (FAREAST). First, the simulated forest composition and vertical forest zonation produced by the model were compared against recorded data in three sub-regions of the Altai Mountains. The FAREAST model accurately reproduced the vertical zonation, forest composition, growth curves of the dominant species (Larix sibirica), and forest biomass in the Altai Mountains. Transitions along the forest zones of the Altai Mountains averaged about a 400 m difference between the northern and southern sites. Biomass for forests on north-facing slopes were 11.0, 15.3 and 55.9 t C ha-1 higher than for south-facing slopes in the Northeast, Central and Southeast sub-regions, respectively. Second, our analyses showed that the FAREAST model can be used to predict dynamic forest succession in Northwest China under the influence of slope and aspect. In the Altai Mountains, the north-facing slopes supported the best forest growth, followed by the west- and east-facing slopes. South-facing slopes consistently exhibited the lowest growth, biomass storage and forest diversity.

  4. Bridging the Gap between RF and Optical Patch Antenna Analysis via the Cavity Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, G S; Aksun, M I

    2015-11-02

    Although optical antennas with a variety of shapes and for a variety of applications have been proposed and studied, they are still in their infancy compared to their radio frequency (rf) counterparts. Optical antennas have mainly utilized the geometrical attributes of rf antennas rather than the analysis tools that have been the source of intuition for antenna engineers in rf. This study intends to narrow the gap of experience and intuition in the design of optical patch antennas by introducing an easy-to-understand and easy-to-implement analysis tool in rf, namely, the cavity model, into the optical regime. The importance of this approach is not only its simplicity in understanding and implementation but also its applicability to a broad class of patch antennas and, more importantly, its ability to provide the intuition needed to predict the outcome without going through the trial-and-error simulations with no or little intuitive guidance by the user.

  5. The exact mass-gap of the supersymmetric CP$^{N-1}$ sigma model

    CERN Document Server

    Evans, J M; Evans, Jonathan M; Hollowood, Timothy J

    1995-01-01

    A formula for the mass-gap of the supersymmetric \\CP^{n-1} sigma model (n > 1) in two dimensions is derived: m/\\Lambda_{\\overline{\\rm MS}}=\\sin(\\pi\\Delta)/(\\pi\\Delta) where \\Delta=1/n and m is the mass of the fundamental particle multiplet. This result is obtained by comparing two expressions for the free-energy density in the presence of a coupling to a conserved charge; one expression is computed from the exact S-matrix of K\\"oberle and Kurak via the thermodynamic Bethe ansatz and the other is computed using conventional perturbation theory. These calculations provide a stringent test of the S-matrix, showing that it correctly reproduces the universal part of the beta-function and resolving the problem of CDD ambiguities.

  6. The exact mass-gap of the supersymmetric O(N) sigma model

    CERN Document Server

    Evans, J M; Evans, Jonathan M; Hollowood, Timothy J

    1995-01-01

    A formula for the mass-gap of the supersymmetric O(N) sigma model (N>4) in two dimensions is derived: m/\\Lambda_{\\overline{\\rm MS}}=2^{2\\Delta}\\sin(\\pi\\Delta)/(\\pi\\Delta), where \\Delta=1/(N-2) and m is the mass of the fundamental vector particle in the theory. This result is obtained by comparing two expressions for the free-energy density in the presence of a coupling to a conserved charge; one expression is computed from the exact S-matrix of Shankar and Witten via the the thermodynamic Bethe ansatz and the other is computed using conventional perturbation theory. These calculations provide a stringent test of the S-matrix, showing that it correctly reproduces the universal part of the beta-function and resolving the problem of CDD ambiguities.

  7. Filling Terrorism Gaps: VEOs, Evaluating Databases, and Applying Risk Terrain Modeling to Terrorism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagan, Ross F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-08-29

    This paper aims to address three issues: the lack of literature differentiating terrorism and violent extremist organizations (VEOs), terrorism incident databases, and the applicability of Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) to terrorism. Current open source literature and publicly available government sources do not differentiate between terrorism and VEOs; furthermore, they fail to define them. Addressing the lack of a comprehensive comparison of existing terrorism data sources, a matrix comparing a dozen terrorism databases is constructed, providing insight toward the array of data available. RTM, a method for spatial risk analysis at a micro level, has some applicability to terrorism research, particularly for studies looking at risk indicators of terrorism. Leveraging attack data from multiple databases, combined with RTM, offers one avenue for closing existing research gaps in terrorism literature.

  8. iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2011-01-01

    This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

  9. Modelling marine sediment biogeochemistry: Current knowledge gaps, challenges, and some methodological advice for advancement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lessin, Gennadi; Artioli, Yuri; Almroth-Rosell, Elin

    2018-01-01

    The benthic environment is a crucial component of marine systems in the provision of ecosystem services, sustaining biodiversity and in climate regulation, and therefore important to human society. With the contemporary increase in computational power, model resolution and technological improveme......The benthic environment is a crucial component of marine systems in the provision of ecosystem services, sustaining biodiversity and in climate regulation, and therefore important to human society. With the contemporary increase in computational power, model resolution and technological...... improvements in quality and quantity of benthic data, it is necessary to ensure that benthic systems are appropriately represented in coupled benthic-pelagic biogeochemical and ecological modelling studies. In this paper we focus on five topical challenges related to various aspects of modelling benthic...... environments: organic matter reactivity, dynamics of benthic-pelagic boundary layer, microphytobenthos, biological transport and small-scale heterogeneity, and impacts of episodic events. We discuss current gaps in their understanding and indicate plausible ways ahead. Further, we propose a three...

  10. Mixture regression models for the gap time distributions and illness-death processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chia-Hui

    2018-01-27

    The aim of this study is to provide an analysis of gap event times under the illness-death model, where some subjects experience "illness" before "death" and others experience only "death." Which event is more likely to occur first and how the duration of the "illness" influences the "death" event are of interest. Because the occurrence of the second event is subject to dependent censoring, it can lead to bias in the estimation of model parameters. In this work, we generalize the semiparametric mixture models for competing risks data to accommodate the subsequent event and use a copula function to model the dependent structure between the successive events. Under the proposed method, the survival function of the censoring time does not need to be estimated when developing the inference procedure. We incorporate the cause-specific hazard functions with the counting process approach and derive a consistent estimation using the nonparametric maximum likelihood method. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed analysis, and its application in a clinical study on chronic myeloid leukemia is reported to illustrate its utility.

  11. A hydroeconomic modeling framework for optimal integrated management of forest and water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Prats, Alberto; del Campo, Antonio D.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2016-10-01

    Forests play a determinant role in the hydrologic cycle, with water being the most important ecosystem service they provide in semiarid regions. However, this contribution is usually neither quantified nor explicitly valued. The aim of this study is to develop a novel hydroeconomic modeling framework for assessing and designing the optimal integrated forest and water management for forested catchments. The optimization model explicitly integrates changes in water yield in the stands (increase in groundwater recharge) induced by forest management and the value of the additional water provided to the system. The model determines the optimal schedule of silvicultural interventions in the stands of the catchment in order to maximize the total net benefit in the system. Canopy cover and biomass evolution over time were simulated using growth and yield allometric equations specific for the species in Mediterranean conditions. Silvicultural operation costs according to stand density and canopy cover were modeled using local cost databases. Groundwater recharge was simulated using HYDRUS, calibrated and validated with data from the experimental plots. In order to illustrate the presented modeling framework, a case study was carried out in a planted pine forest (Pinus halepensis Mill.) located in south-western Valencia province (Spain). The optimized scenario increased groundwater recharge. This novel modeling framework can be used in the design of a "payment for environmental services" scheme in which water beneficiaries could contribute to fund and promote efficient forest management operations.

  12. Light Competition and Carbon Partitioning-Allocation in an improved Forest Ecosystem Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collalti, Alessio; Santini, Monia; Valentini Valentini, Riccardo

    2010-05-01

    In Italy about 100.000 km2 are covered by forests. This surface is the 30% of the whole national land and this shows how the forests are important both for socio-economic and for environmental aspects. Forests changes affect a delicate balance that involve not only vegetation components but also bio-geochemical cycles and global climate. The knowledge of the amount of Carbon sequestered by forests represents a precious information for their sustainable management in the framework of climate changes. Primary studies in terms of model about this important issue, has been done through Forest Ecosystem Model (FEM), well known and validated as 3PG (Landsberg et Waring, 1997; Sands 2004). It is based on light use efficiency approach at the canopy level. The present study started from the original model 3PG, producing an improved version that uses many of explicit formulations of all relevant ecophysiological processes but makes it able to be applied for natural forests. The mutual interaction of forest growth and light conditions causes vertical and horizontal differentiation in the natural forest mosaic. Only ecophysiological parameters which can be either directly measured or estimates with reasonable certainty are used. The model has been written in C language and has been created considering a tri-dimensional cell structure with different vertical layers depending on the forest type that has to be simulated. This 3PG 'improved' version enable to work on multi-layer and multi-species forests type with cell resolution of one hectare for the typical Italian forest species. The multi-layer version is the result of the implementation and development of Lambert-Beer law for the estimation of intercepted, absorbed and transmitted light through different storeys of the forest. It is possible estimates, for each storey, a Par value (Photosynthetic Active Radiation) through Leaf Area Index (LAI), Light Extinction Coefficient and cell Canopy Cover using a "Big Leaf" approach

  13. Closing the contrast gap between testbed and model prediction with WFIRST-CGI shaped pupil coronagraph

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hanying; Nemati, Bijan; Krist, John; Cady, Eric; Prada, Camilo M.; Kern, Brian; Poberezhskiy, Ilya

    2016-07-01

    JPL has recently passed an important milestone in its technology development for a proposed NASA WFIRST mission coronagraph: demonstration of better than 1x10-8 contrast over broad bandwidth (10%) on both shaped pupil coronagraph (SPC) and hybrid Lyot coronagraph (HLC) testbeds with the WFIRST obscuration pattern. Challenges remain, however, in the technology readiness for the proposed mission. One is the discrepancies between the achieved contrasts on the testbeds and their corresponding model predictions. A series of testbed diagnoses and modeling activities were planned and carried out on the SPC testbed in order to close the gap. A very useful tool we developed was a derived "measured" testbed wavefront control Jacobian matrix that could be compared with the model-predicted "control" version that was used to generate the high contrast dark hole region in the image plane. The difference between these two is an estimate of the error in the control Jacobian. When the control matrix, which includes both amplitude and phase, was modified to reproduce the error, the simulated performance closely matched the SPC testbed behavior in both contrast floor and contrast convergence speed. This is a step closer toward model validation for high contrast coronagraphs. Further Jacobian analysis and modeling provided clues to the possible sources for the mismatch: DM misregistration and testbed optical wavefront error (WFE) and the deformable mirror (DM) setting for correcting this WFE. These analyses suggested that a high contrast coronagraph has a tight tolerance in the accuracy of its control Jacobian. Modifications to both testbed control model as well as prediction model are being implemented, and future works are discussed.

  14. Final Progress Report on Model-Based Diagnosis of Soil Limitations to Forest Productivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luxmoore, R.J.

    2004-08-30

    This project was undertaken in support of the forest industry to link modeling of nutrients and productivity with field research to identify methods for enhancing soil quality and forest productivity and for alleviating soil limitations to sustainable forest productivity. The project consisted of a series of related tasks, including (1) simulation of changes in biomass and soil carbon with nitrogen fertilization, (2) development of spreadsheet modeling tools for soil nutrient availability and tree nutrient requirements, (3) additional modeling studies, and (4) evaluation of factors involved in the establishment and productivity of southern pine plantations in seasonally wet soils. This report also describes the two Web sites that were developed from the research to assist forest managers with nutrient management of Douglas-fir and loblolly pine plantations.

  15. To Model for the Georeferenciation of the Colonization of the Forest to Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angel Sanint, Enrique; Castano Posada, Carlos Mario

    2003-01-01

    A mathematical model for the future geographical projection of the forest colonization process is proposed. The model allows the estimation of future forest areas and their geographical location, in such a way that it is possible to create a probable image of the forest coverage at a given future date. The model is based on the preservation of historical statistical parameters through the use of multi-temporal analysis of satellite images. The developed projection method is applied to San Vicente del Chucuri Santander, Colombia) using four Land sat satellite images from 1977, 1985, 1991 and 1998. The statistical behavior of the colonization process is established, to produce a future forest image for the year 2005 in the study area

  16. A study on the use and modeling of geographical information system for combating forest crimes: an assessment of crimes in the eastern Mediterranean forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pak, Mehmet; Gülci, Sercan; Okumuş, Arif

    2018-01-06

    This study focuses on the geo-statistical assessment of spatial estimation models in forest crimes. Used widely in the assessment of crime and crime-dependent variables, geographic information system (GIS) helps the detection of forest crimes in rural regions. In this study, forest crimes (forest encroachment, illegal use, illegal timber logging, etc.) are assessed holistically and modeling was performed with ten different independent variables in GIS environment. The research areas are three Forest Enterprise Chiefs (Baskonus, Cinarpinar, and Hartlap) affiliated to Kahramanmaras Forest Regional Directorate in Kahramanmaras. An estimation model was designed using ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods, which are often used in spatial association. Three different models were proposed in order to increase the accuracy of the estimation model. The use of variables with a variance inflation factor (VIF) value of lower than 7.5 in Model I and lower than 4 in Model II and dependent variables with significant robust probability values in Model III are associated with forest crimes. Afterwards, the model with the lowest corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC c ), and the highest R 2 value was selected as the comparison criterion. Consequently, Model III proved to be more accurate compared to other models. For Model III, while AIC c was 328,491 and R 2 was 0.634 for OLS-3 model, AIC c was 318,489 and R 2 was 0.741 for GWR-3 model. In this respect, the uses of GIS for combating forest crimes provide different scenarios and tangible information that will help take political and strategic measures.

  17. Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

    2002-01-01

    Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

  18. Using a GIS model to assess terrestrial salamander response to alternative forest management plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Nathan L. Murphy; Thomas R. Crow

    2001-01-01

    A GIS model predicting the spatial distribution of terrestrial salamander abundance based on topography and forest age was developed using parameters derived from the literature. The model was tested by sampling salamander abundance across the full range of site conditions used in the model. A regression of the predictions of our GIS model against these sample data...

  19. Polarimetric SAR Interferometry based modeling for tree height and aboveground biomass retrieval in a tropical deciduous forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Shashi; Khati, Unmesh G.; Chandola, Shreya; Agrawal, Shefali; Kushwaha, Satya P. S.

    2017-08-01

    The regulation of the carbon cycle is a critical ecosystem service provided by forests globally. It is, therefore, necessary to have robust techniques for speedy assessment of forest biophysical parameters at the landscape level. It is arduous and time taking to monitor the status of vast forest landscapes using traditional field methods. Remote sensing and GIS techniques are efficient tools that can monitor the health of forests regularly. Biomass estimation is a key parameter in the assessment of forest health. Polarimetric SAR (PolSAR) remote sensing has already shown its potential for forest biophysical parameter retrieval. The current research work focuses on the retrieval of forest biophysical parameters of tropical deciduous forest, using fully polarimetric spaceborne C-band data with Polarimetric SAR Interferometry (PolInSAR) techniques. PolSAR based Interferometric Water Cloud Model (IWCM) has been used to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB). Input parameters to the IWCM have been extracted from the decomposition modeling of SAR data as well as PolInSAR coherence estimation. The technique of forest tree height retrieval utilized PolInSAR coherence based modeling approach. Two techniques - Coherence Amplitude Inversion (CAI) and Three Stage Inversion (TSI) - for forest height estimation are discussed, compared and validated. These techniques allow estimation of forest stand height and true ground topography. The accuracy of the forest height estimated is assessed using ground-based measurements. PolInSAR based forest height models showed enervation in the identification of forest vegetation and as a result height values were obtained in river channels and plain areas. Overestimation in forest height was also noticed at several patches of the forest. To overcome this problem, coherence and backscatter based threshold technique is introduced for forest area identification and accurate height estimation in non-forested regions. IWCM based modeling for forest

  20. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; Reed, Sasha; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

    2017-10-01

    For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  1. Individual-Tree Diameter Growth Models for Mixed Nothofagus Second Growth Forests in Southern Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo C. Moreno

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Second growth forests of Nothofagus obliqua (roble, N. alpina (raulí, and N. dombeyi (coihue, known locally as RORACO, are among the most important native mixed forests in Chile. To improve the sustainable management of these forests, managers need adequate information and models regarding not only existing forest conditions, but their future states with varying alternative silvicultural activities. In this study, an individual-tree diameter growth model was developed for the full geographical distribution of the RORACO forest type. This was achieved by fitting a complete model by comparing two variable selection procedures: cross-validation (CV, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO regression. A small set of predictors successfully explained a large portion of the annual increment in diameter at breast height (DBH growth, particularly variables associated with competition at both the tree- and stand-level. Goodness-of-fit statistics for this final model showed an empirical coefficient of correlation (R2emp of 0.56, relative root mean square error of 44.49% and relative bias of −1.96% for annual DBH growth predictions, and R2emp of 0.98 and 0.97 for DBH projection at 6 and 12 years, respectively. This model constitutes a simple and useful tool to support management plans for these forest ecosystems.

  2. [Estimation of forest canopy chlorophyll content based on PROSPECT and SAIL models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xi-guang; Fan, Wen-yi; Yu, Ying

    2010-11-01

    The forest canopy chlorophyll content directly reflects the health and stress of forest. The accurate estimation of the forest canopy chlorophyll content is a significant foundation for researching forest ecosystem cycle models. In the present paper, the inversion of the forest canopy chlorophyll content was based on PROSPECT and SAIL models from the physical mechanism angle. First, leaf spectrum and canopy spectrum were simulated by PROSPECT and SAIL models respectively. And leaf chlorophyll content look-up-table was established for leaf chlorophyll content retrieval. Then leaf chlorophyll content was converted into canopy chlorophyll content by Leaf Area Index (LAD). Finally, canopy chlorophyll content was estimated from Hyperion image. The results indicated that the main effect bands of chlorophyll content were 400-900 nm, the simulation of leaf and canopy spectrum by PROSPECT and SAIL models fit better with the measured spectrum with 7.06% and 16.49% relative error respectively, the RMSE of LAI inversion was 0. 542 6 and the forest canopy chlorophyll content was estimated better by PROSPECT and SAIL models with precision = 77.02%.

  3. Evaluating mechanisms of diversification in a Guineo-Congolian tropical forest frog using demographic model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portik, Daniel M; Leaché, Adam D; Rivera, Danielle; Barej, Michael F; Burger, Marius; Hirschfeld, Mareike; Rödel, Mark-Oliver; Blackburn, David C; Fujita, Matthew K

    2017-10-01

    The accumulation of biodiversity in tropical forests can occur through multiple allopatric and parapatric models of diversification, including forest refugia, riverine barriers and ecological gradients. Considerable debate surrounds the major diversification process, particularly in the West African Lower Guinea forests, which contain a complex geographic arrangement of topographic features and historical refugia. We used genomic data to investigate alternative mechanisms of diversification in the Gaboon forest frog, Scotobleps gabonicus, by first identifying population structure and then performing demographic model selection and spatially explicit analyses. We found that a majority of population divergences are best explained by allopatric models consistent with the forest refugia hypothesis and involve divergence in isolation with subsequent expansion and gene flow. These population divergences occurred simultaneously and conform to predictions based on climatically stable regions inferred through ecological niche modelling. Although forest refugia played a prominent role in the intraspecific diversification of S. gabonicus, we also find evidence for potential interactions between landscape features and historical refugia, including major rivers and elevational barriers such as the Cameroonian Volcanic Line. We outline the advantages of using genomewide variation in a model-testing framework to distinguish between alternative allopatric hypotheses, and the pitfalls of limited geographic and molecular sampling. Although phylogeographic patterns are often species-specific and related to life-history traits, additional comparative studies incorporating genomic data are necessary for separating shared historical processes from idiosyncratic responses to environmental, climatic and geological influences on diversification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Socio-demographic Model of Gender Gap in Expected and Actual Wages in Estonia

    OpenAIRE

    Vassil, Kristjan; Eamets, Raul; Mõtsmees, Pille

    2014-01-01

    Estonia ranks consistently on top of the list of countries with the largest gender pay gap. However, irrespective of abundant aggregate level evidence, little is known what motivates the gap at the individual level. In this paper we precisely address the issue of gender pay gap at the individual level. We examine how large is the gender pay gap in actual and expected wages and how it can be explained. We use a rich dataset from Estonian Labour Force Survey on actual wages, and the data from C...

  5. A three-dimensional stochastic model of the behavior of radionuclides in forests. Part 2. Cs-137 behavior in forest soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, Mitchell T.; Shuman, Larry J.

    1995-01-01

    Using a three-dimensional stochastic model of radionuclides in forests developed in Part 1, this work simulates the long-term behavior of Cs-137 in forest soil. It is assumed that the behavior of Cs-137 in soils is driven by its advection and dispersion due to the infiltration of the soil solution, and its sorption to the soil matrix. As Cs-137 transport through soils is affected by its uptake and release by forest vegetation, a model of radiocesium behavior in forest vegetation is presented in Part 3 of this paper. To estimate the rate of infiltration of water through the soil, models are presented to estimate the hydrological cycle of the forest including infiltration, evapotranspiration, and the root uptake of water. The state transition probabilities for the random walk model of Cs-137 transport are then estimated using the models developed to predict the distribution of water in the forest. The random walk model is then tested using a base line scenario in which Cs-137 is deposited into a coniferous forest ecosystem

  6. Empirical models of monthly and annual surface albedo in managed boreal forests of Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Ryan M.; Astrup, Rasmus; Strømman, Anders H.

    2013-04-01

    As forest management activities play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation strategies of Nordic regions such as Norway, Sweden, and Finland -- the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the types and magnitude of biogeophysical climate effects and their various tradeoffs with the global carbon cycle becomes essential to avoid implementation of sub-optimal policy. Forest harvest in these regions reduces the albedo "masking effect" and impacts Earth's radiation budget in opposing ways to that of concomitant carbon cycle perturbations; thus, policies based solely on biogeochemical considerations in these regions risk being counterproductive. There is therefore a need to better understand how human disturbances (i.e., forest management activities) affect important biophysical factors like surface albedo. An 11-year remotely sensed surface albedo dataset coupled with stand-level forest management data for a variety of stands in Norway's most productive logging region are used to develop regression models describing temporal changes in monthly and annual forest albedo following clear-cut harvest disturbance events. Datasets are grouped by dominant tree species and site indices (productivity), and two alternate multiple regression models are developed and tested following a potential plus modifier approach. This resulted in an annual albedo model with statistically significant parameters that explains a large proportion of the observed variation, requiring as few as two predictor variables: i) average stand age - a canopy modifier predictor of albedo, and ii) stand elevation - a local climate predictor of a forest's potential albedo. The same model structure is used to derive monthly albedo models, with models for winter months generally found superior to summer models, and conifer models generally outperforming deciduous. We demonstrate how these statistical models can be applied to routine forest inventory data to predict the albedo

  7. Development and Validation of Spatially Explicit Habitat Models for Cavity-nesting Birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall A., Jr. Schultz; Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino

    2005-01-01

    The ability of USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) generated spatial products to increase the predictive accuracy of spatially explicit, macroscale habitat models was examined for nest-site selection by cavity-nesting birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah. One FIA-derived variable (percent basal area of aspen trees) was significant in the habitat...

  8. Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance : Insights from a global process-based vegetation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, Patricia; Harden, J. L.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

    2013-01-01

    Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and

  9. Modelling the potential role of forest thinning in maintaining water supplies under a changing climate across the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this study was to test the sensitivity of water yield to forest thinning and other forest management/disturbances and climate across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Leaf area index (LAI) was selected as a key parameter linking changes in forest ecosystem structure and functions. We used the Water Supply Stress Index model to examine water yield...

  10. Measuring and modeling carbon stock change estimates for US forests and uncertainties from apparent inter-annual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

    2015-01-01

    Our approach is based on a collection of models that convert or augment the USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis program survey data to estimate all forest carbon component stocks, including live and standing dead tree aboveground and belowground biomass, forest floor (litter), down deadwood, and soil organic carbon, for each inventory plot. The data, which include...

  11. Modeling light use efficiency in a subtropical mangrove forest equipped with CO2 eddy covariance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Barr

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite the importance of mangrove ecosystems in the global carbon budget, the relationships between environmental drivers and carbon dynamics in these forests remain poorly understood. This limited understanding is partly a result of the challenges associated with in situ flux studies. Tower-based CO2 eddy covariance (EC systems are installed in only a few mangrove forests worldwide, and the longest EC record from the Florida Everglades contains less than 9 years of observations. A primary goal of the present study was to develop a methodology to estimate canopy-scale photosynthetic light use efficiency in this forest. These tower-based observations represent a basis for associating CO2 fluxes with canopy light use properties, and thus provide the means for utilizing satellite-based reflectance data for larger scale investigations. We present a model for mangrove canopy light use efficiency utilizing the enhanced green vegetation index (EVI derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS that is capable of predicting changes in mangrove forest CO2 fluxes caused by a hurricane disturbance and changes in regional environmental conditions, including temperature and salinity. Model parameters are solved for in a Bayesian framework. The model structure requires estimates of ecosystem respiration (RE, and we present the first ever tower-based estimates of mangrove forest RE derived from nighttime CO2 fluxes. Our investigation is also the first to show the effects of salinity on mangrove forest CO2 uptake, which declines 5% per each 10 parts per thousand (ppt increase in salinity. Light use efficiency in this forest declines with increasing daily photosynthetic active radiation, which is an important departure from the assumption of constant light use efficiency typically applied in satellite-driven models. The model developed here provides a framework for estimating CO2 uptake by these forests from reflectance data and

  12. Improving snow cover mapping in forests through the use of a canopy reflectance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, A.G.; Hall, D.K.; Riggs, G.A.

    1998-01-01

    MODIS, the moderate resolution imaging spectro radiometer, will be launched in 1998 as part of the first earth observing system (EOS) platform. Global maps of land surface properties, including snow cover, will be created from MODIS imagery. The MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm that will be used to produce daily maps of global snow cover extent at 500 m resolution is currently under development. With the exception of cloud cover, the largest limitation to producing a global daily snow cover product using MODIS is the presence of a forest canopy. A Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) time-series of the southern Boreal Ecosystem–Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) study area in Prince Albert National Park, Saskatchewan, was used to evaluate the performance of the current MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm in varying forest types. A snow reflectance model was used in conjunction with a canopy reflectance model (GeoSAIL) to model the reflectance of a snow-covered forest stand. Using these coupled models, the effects of varying forest type, canopy density, snow grain size and solar illumination geometry on the performance of the MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm were investigated. Using both the TM images and the reflectance models, two changes to the current MODIS snow-cover mapping algorithm are proposed that will improve the algorithm's classification accuracy in forested areas. The improvements include using the normalized difference snow index and normalized difference vegetation index in combination to discriminate better between snow-covered and snow-free forests. A minimum albedo threshold of 10% in the visible wavelengths is also proposed. This will prevent dense forests with very low visible albedos from being classified incorrectly as snow. These two changes increase the amount of snow mapped in forests on snow-covered TM scenes, and decrease the area incorrectly identified as snow on non-snow-covered TM scenes. (author)

  13. Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

  14. Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Hynynen, Jari; Juutinen, Artti; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Nilsson, Urban; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

    2017-07-15

    A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Deposition to forests in Europe: most important factors influencing dry deposition and models used for generalisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erisman, Jan Willem; Draaijers, Geert

    2003-01-01

    The influence of forest characteristics on deposition can be modelled reasonably well; forest edge effects and dynamical processes are still uncertain. - Dry deposition of gases and particles to forests is influenced by factors influencing the turbulent transport, such as wind speed, tree height, canopy closure, LAI, etc. as well as by factors influencing surface condition, such as precipitation, relative humidity, global radiation, etc. In this paper, an overview of these factors is given and it is shown which are the most important determining temporal and spatial variation of dry deposition of sodium and sulphur. Furthermore, it is evaluated how well current deposition models are able to describe the temporal and spatial variation in dry deposition. It is concluded that the temporal variation is not modelled well enough, because of limited surface-wetness exchange parameterisations. The influence of forest characteristics are modelled reasonably well, provided enough data describing the forests and the spatial variation in concentration is available. For Europe these data are not available. The means to decrease the atmospheric deposition through forest management is discussed

  16. Modeling white-tailed deer activity patterns across forested landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda S. Gribko; Michael E. Hohn; William M. Ford

    2000-01-01

    White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herbivory has been identified as a major impediment to the survival and growth of forest regeneration in the northeastern United States. As a supplement to direct control of deer densities through hunting, it may be possible for land managers to manipulate habitat and browsing pressure through carefully...

  17. Improving city forests through assessment, modelling and monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.J. Nowak

    2018-01-01

    Urban and peri-urban forests produce numerous benefits for society. These include moderating the climate; reducing energy use in buildings; sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide; improving air and water quality; mitigating rainfall run-off and flooding; providing an aesthetic environment and recreational opportunities; enhancing human health and social well-being;...

  18. Modeling of Radiowave Propagation in a Forested Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    and downlink communication from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to troops located within forest. Lastly, there is deployment of vehicular ...band (30 to 300 MHz) where the wavelength is relatively long (1.0 m to 10.0 m). With the congestion of spectrum usage in the VHF band and the

  19. Alternative business models for forest - dependent communities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Robert A. Kozak

    2009-12-02

    Dec 2, 2009 ... 2424 Main Mall,Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z3, Canada. E - mail: .... address social, economic and environmental concerns in Africa, perhaps it is more ... Since colonization, the dominant mode of business practice in the high forest ...

  20. Modeling forest fire occurrences using count-data mixed models in Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping

    2015-01-01

    Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence.

  1. Genetic conservation planning for forest tree species in Western North America under future climate change: Employing a novel approach to identify conservation gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    L.K. Gray; E.J. Russell; Q.E. Barber; A. Hamann

    2017-01-01

    Among the 17 provinces, territories, and states that comprise western North America, approximately 18 percent of the 8.4 million km2 of forested land base is designated as protected areas to ensure the in situ conservation of forest biodiversity. Jurisdictions vary substantially however, in their responsibilities, protected area coverage, and conservation policies....

  2. Exploitation of geoinformatics at modelling of functional effects of forest functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sitko, R.

    2005-01-01

    From point of view of space modelling geoinformatics has wide application in group of ecologic function of forest because they directly depend on natural conditions of site. A causa de cy modelling application was realised on the territory of TANAP (Tatras National Park), West Tatras, in the part Liptovske Kopy. The size of this territory is about 4,900 hectares and forests there subserve the first of all significant ecological functions, what are soil protection from erosion, water management, and anti-avalanche function. Of environmental functions they have recreational role of the forest and function of nature protection. Anti-avalanche and anti-erosion function of forest is evaluated in this presentation

  3. Conceptual Model-based Systems Biology: mapping knowledge and discovering gaps in the mRNA transcription cycle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Somekh

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available We propose a Conceptual Model-based Systems Biology framework for qualitative modeling, executing, and eliciting knowledge gaps in molecular biology systems. The framework is an adaptation of Object-Process Methodology (OPM, a graphical and textual executable modeling language. OPM enables concurrent representation of the system's structure-the objects that comprise the system, and behavior-how processes transform objects over time. Applying a top-down approach of recursively zooming into processes, we model a case in point-the mRNA transcription cycle. Starting with this high level cell function, we model increasingly detailed processes along with participating objects. Our modeling approach is capable of modeling molecular processes such as complex formation, localization and trafficking, molecular binding, enzymatic stimulation, and environmental intervention. At the lowest level, similar to the Gene Ontology, all biological processes boil down to three basic molecular functions: catalysis, binding/dissociation, and transporting. During modeling and execution of the mRNA transcription model, we discovered knowledge gaps, which we present and classify into various types. We also show how model execution enhances a coherent model construction. Identification and pinpointing knowledge gaps is an important feature of the framework, as it suggests where research should focus and whether conjectures about uncertain mechanisms fit into the already verified model.

  4. Knowledge Gaps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyles, Marjorie; Pedersen, Torben; Petersen, Bent

    2003-01-01

    The study explores what factors influence the reduction of managers' perceivedknowledge gaps in the context of the environments of foreign markets. Potentialdeterminants are derived from traditional internationalization theory as well asorganizational learning theory, including the concept...... of absorptive capacity. Building onthese literature streams a conceptual model is developed and tested on a set of primarydata of Danish firms and their foreign market operations. The empirical study suggeststhat the factors that pertain to the absorptive capacity concept - capabilities ofrecognizing......, assimilating, and utilizing knowledge - are crucial determinants ofknowledge gap elimination. In contrast, the two factors deemed essential in traditionalinternationalization process theory - elapsed time of operations and experientiallearning - are found to have no or limited effect.Key words...

  5. Identifying data gaps and prioritizing restoration strategies for Fremont cottonwood using linked geomorphic and population models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, E. B.; Stella, J. C.; Fremier, A. K.

    2009-12-01

    Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) is an important component of semi-arid riparian ecosystems throughout western North America, but its populations are in decline due to flow regulation. Achieving a balance between human resource needs and riparian ecosystem function requires a mechanistic understanding of the multiple geomorphic and biological factors affecting tree recruitment and survival, including the timing and magnitude of river flows, and the concomitant influence on suitable habitat creation and mortality from scour and sedimentation burial. Despite a great deal of empirical research on some components of the system, such as factors affecting cottonwood recruitment, other key components are less studied. Yet understanding the relative influence of the full suite of physical and life-history drivers is critical to modeling whole-population dynamics under changing environmental conditions. We addressed these issues for the Fremont cottonwood population along the Sacramento River, CA using a sensitivity analysis approach to quantify uncertainty in parameters on the outcomes of a patch-based, dynamic population model. Using a broad range of plausible values for 15 model parameters that represent key physical, biological and climatic components of the ecosystem, we ran 1,000 population simulations that consisted of a subset of 14.3 million possible combinations of parameter estimates to predict the frequency of patch colonization and total forest habitat predicted to occur under current hydrologic conditions after 175 years. Results indicate that Fremont cottonwood populations are highly sensitive to the interactions among flow regime, sedimentation rate and the depth of the capillary fringe (Fig. 1). Estimates of long-term floodplain sedimentation rate would substantially improve model accuracy. Spatial variation in sediment texture was also important to the extent that it determines the depth of the capillary fringe, which regulates the availability of

  6. Animating Research with Counseling Values: A Training Model to Address the Research-to-Practice Gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kristi A.; Dewell, John A.; Holmes, Courtney M.

    2014-01-01

    The persistent research-to-practice gap poses a problem for counselor education. The gap may be caused by conflicts between the humanistic values that guide much of counseling and the values that guide research training. In this article, the authors address historical concerns regarding research training for students and the conducting of research…

  7. Testing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Hollis; S. Matthews; Roger Ottmar; S.J. Prichard; S. Slijepcevic; N.D. Burrows; B. Ward; K.G. Tolhurst; W.R. Anderson; J S. Gould

    2010-01-01

    Five models for the consumption of coarse woody debris or woody fuels with a diameter larger than 0.6 cm were assessed for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires including: CONSUME models for (1) activity fuels, (2) natural western woody and (3) natural southern woody fuels, (4) the BURNUP model and (5) the recommendation by the Australian National...

  8. Evapotranspiration and heat fluxes over a small forest - a study using modelling and measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sogachev, Andrey; Dellwik, Ebba; Boegh, Eva

    2013-01-01

    are very often used for calibration of forest parameters or model constants, further use of these parameters without a proper interpretation in mesoscale or global circulation models can result in serious bias of estimates of modelled evapotranspiration or heat fluxes from the given area. In the present...... work, we apply the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) model SCADIS with enhanced turbulence closure including buoyancy for investigation of the spatial distribution of latent and sensible heat vertical fluxes over patchy forested terrain in Denmark during selected days in the summer period. The approach...

  9. Strategy and gaps for modeling, simulation, and control of hybrid systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Garcia, Humberto E. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Hovsapian, Rob [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mesina, George L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Boardman, Richard D. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-04-01

    , dynamic energy systems requires multiple simulation tools, potentially developed in several programming languages and resolved on separate time scales. Whereas further investigation and development of hybrid concepts will provide a more complete understanding of the joint computational and physical modeling needs, this report highlights areas in which co-simulation capabilities are warranted. The current development status, quality assurance, availability and maintainability of simulation tools that are currently available for hybrid systems modeling is presented. Existing gaps in the modeling and simulation toolsets and development needs are subsequently discussed. This effort will feed into a broader Roadmap activity for designing, developing, and demonstrating hybrid energy systems.

  10. Impact of forest maintenance on water shortages: Hydrologic modeling and effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Pingping; Zhou, Meimei; Deng, Hongzhang; Lyu, Jiqiang; Cao, Wenqiang; Takara, Kaoru; Nover, Daniel; Geoffrey Schladow, S

    2018-02-15

    The importance of water quantity for domestic and industrial water supply, agriculture, and the economy more broadly has led to the development of many water quantity assessment methods. In this study, surface flow and soil water in the forested upper reaches of the Yoshino River are compared using a distributed hydrological model with Forest Maintenance Module under two scenarios; before and after forest maintenance. We also examine the impact of forest maintenance on these variables during extreme droughts. Results show that surface flow and soil water increased after forest maintenance. In addition, projections of future water resources were estimated using a hydrological model and the output from a 20km mesh Global Climate Model (GCM20). River discharge for the near-future (2015-2039) is similar to that of the present (1979-2003). Estimated river discharge for the future (2075-2099) was found to be substantially more extreme than in the current period, with 12m 3 /s higher peak discharge in August and 7m 3 /s lower in July compared to the discharges of the present period. Soil water for the future is estimated to be lower than for the present and near future in May. The methods discussed in this study can be applied in other regions and the results help elucidate the impact of forests and climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Zhenzhong; Chen, Anping; Piao, Shilong; Rabin, Sam; Shen, Zehao

    2014-07-01

    The distributions of tropical ecosystems are rapidly being altered by climate change and anthropogenic activities. One possible trend—the loss of tropical forests and replacement by savannas—could result in significant shifts in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss. However, the influence and the relative importance of environmental factors in regulating the distribution of tropical forest and savanna biomes are still poorly understood, which makes it difficult to predict future tropical forest and savanna distributions in the context of climate change. Here we use boosted regression trees to quantitatively evaluate the importance of environmental predictors—mainly climatic, edaphic, and fire factors—for the tropical forest-savanna distribution at a mesoscale across the tropics (between 15°N and 35°S). Our results demonstrate that climate alone can explain most of the distribution of tropical forest and savanna at the scale considered; dry season average precipitation is the single most important determinant across tropical Asia-Australia, Africa, and South America. Given the strong tendency of increased seasonality and decreased dry season precipitation predicted by global climate models, we estimate that about 28% of what is now tropical forest would likely be lost to savanna by the late 21st century under the future scenario considered. This study highlights the importance of climate seasonality and interannual variability in predicting the distribution of tropical forest and savanna, supporting the climate as the primary driver in the savanna biogeography.

  12. Understanding the radar backscattering from flooded and nonflooded Amazonian forests: results from canopy backscatter modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Hess, L.L.; Filoso, S.; Melack, J.M.

    1995-01-01

    To understand the potential of using multiwavelength imaging radars to detect flooding in Amazonian floodplain forests, we simulated the radar backscatter from a floodplain forest with a flooded or nonflooded ground condition at C-, L-, and P-bands. Field measurements of forest structure in the Anavilhanas archipelago of the Negro River, Brazil, were used as inputs to the model. Given the same wavelength or incidence angle, the ratio of backscatter from the flooded forest to that from the nonflooded forest was higher at HH polarization than at VV polarization. Given the same wavelength or polarization, the ratio was larger at small incidence angles than at large incidence angles. Given the same polarization or incidence angle, the ratio was larger at a long wavelength than at a short wavelength. As the surface soil moisture underneath the nonflooded forest increased from 10% to 50% of volumetric moisture, the flooded/nonflooded backscatter ratio decreased; the decreases were small at C- and L-band but large at P-band. When the leaf size was comparable to or larger than the wavelength of C-band, the leaf area index (LAI) had a large effect on the simulated C-band (not L-band or P-band) backscatter from the flooded and nonflooded forests. (author)

  13. Development of Model for Pedestrian Gap Based on Land Use Pattern at Midblock Location and Estimation of Delay at Intersections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, Adepu; Ashritha, Kilari; Kumar, Molugaram

    2018-04-01

    Walking has always been a prime source of human mobility for short distance travel. Traffic congestion has become a major problem for safe pedestrian crossing in most of the metropolitan cities. This has emphasized for providing a sufficient pedestrian gap for safe crossing on urban road. The present works aims in understanding factors that influence pedestrian crossing behaviour. Four locations were chosen for identification of pedestrian crossing behaviour, gap characteristics, waiting time etc., in Hyderabad city. From the study it was observed that pedestrian behaviour and crossing patterns are different and is influenced by land use pattern. A gap acceptance model was developed from the data for improving pedestrian safety at mid-block location; the model was validated using the existing data. Pedestrian delay was estimated at intersection using Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). It was observed that field delays are less when compared to delay arrived from HCM method.

  14. Modelling above Ground Biomass of Mangrove Forest Using SENTINEL-1 Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labadisos Argamosa, Reginald Jay; Conferido Blanco, Ariel; Balidoy Baloloy, Alvin; Gumbao Candido, Christian; Lovern Caboboy Dumalag, John Bart; Carandang Dimapilis, Lee, , Lady; Camero Paringit, Enrico

    2018-04-01

    Many studies have been conducted in the estimation of forest above ground biomass (AGB) using features from synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Specifically, L-band ALOS/PALSAR (wavelength 23 cm) data is often used. However, few studies have been made on the use of shorter wavelengths (e.g., C-band, 3.75 cm to 7.5 cm) for forest mapping especially in tropical forests since higher attenuation is observed for volumetric objects where energy propagated is absorbed. This study aims to model AGB estimates of mangrove forest using information derived from Sentinel-1 C-band SAR data. Combinations of polarisations (VV, VH), its derivatives, grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), and its principal components were used as features for modelling AGB. Five models were tested with varying combinations of features; a) sigma nought polarisations and its derivatives; b) GLCM textures; c) the first five principal components; d) combination of models a-c; and e) the identified important features by Random Forest variable importance algorithm. Random Forest was used as regressor to compute for the AGB estimates to avoid over fitting caused by the introduction of too many features in the model. Model e obtained the highest r2 of 0.79 and an RMSE of 0.44 Mg using only four features, namely, σ°VH GLCM variance, σ°VH GLCM contrast, PC1, and PC2. This study shows that Sentinel-1 C-band SAR data could be used to produce acceptable AGB estimates in mangrove forest to compensate for the unavailability of longer wavelength SAR.

  15. Experimental study on in-vessel debris coolability during severe accident - Experimental and analytical model study on gap cooling in gap

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Soon Heung; Baek, Won Pil; Yang, Soo Hyung; Kim, Soo Hyoung; Lee, Yong Ho; Chung, Yong Hun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea)

    1999-04-01

    To understand the flooding and mechanism in gap geometry, research was conducted. Final objectives of research are as follows: 1) Literature survey of the flooding and heat transfer mechanism in gap geometry 2) Performing CHF experiments using bottom closed rectangular channels test section 3) Development of flooding correlation using flooding data 4) Derive instability wave length in narrow gap. The major results of research are as follows: 1) Gap size and span of channel are important parameter for flooding. 2) Kutateladze number used for analysing flooding data, is appropriate to the analysis of the flooding using non-circular narrow gap channel. 3) Flooding correlation was developed using collected flooding data and it predicts flooding data lower than 10%. 4) CHF correlation derived from developed flooding collreation overpredict CHF. 5) Instability wave length is increased as gap size is decreased. 26 refs., 46 figs., 2 tabs. (Author)

  16. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Irfan Ashraf

    Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence

  17. Combining Multi-Source Remotely Sensed Data and a Process-Based Model for Forest Aboveground Biomass Updating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xiaoman; Zheng, Guang; Miller, Colton; Alvarado, Ernesto

    2017-09-08

    Monitoring and understanding the spatio-temporal variations of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is a key basis to quantitatively assess the carbon sequestration capacity of a forest ecosystem. To map and update forest AGB in the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) of China, this work proposes a physical-based approach. Based on the baseline forest AGB from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images in 2008, we dynamically updated the annual forest AGB from 2009 to 2012 by adding the annual AGB increment (ABI) obtained from the simulated daily and annual net primary productivity (NPP) using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model. The 2012 result was validated by both field- and aerial laser scanning (ALS)-based AGBs. The predicted forest AGB for 2012 estimated from the process-based model can explain 31% ( n = 35, p forest AGBs, respectively. However, due to the saturation of optical remote sensing-based spectral signals and contribution of understory vegetation, the BEPS-based AGB tended to underestimate/overestimate the AGB for dense/sparse forests. Generally, our results showed that the remotely sensed forest AGB estimates could serve as the initial carbon pool to parameterize the process-based model for NPP simulation, and the combination of the baseline forest AGB and BEPS model could effectively update the spatiotemporal distribution of forest AGB.

  18. Model Development For Wireless Propagation In Forested Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    vegetation elements can be compared to the reduction of the propagated radio signals in buildings and urban areas. The diversity of operational...contexts for radio wave propagation through foliage is infinite, ranging from tall, dense canopy forests to open, low, sparse canopy woodlands [3], as...nearly flat and mainly consists of dry soil and sand that is covered by grass in some parts. The experimental site is mixed vegetation woodland with an

  19. The carbon debt from Amazon forest degradation: integrating airborne lidar, field measurements, and an ecosystem demography model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, M.; Keller, M. M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.; Pinagé, E. R.; Leitold, V.; Morton, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Amazon deforestation has declined over the last decade, yet forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation continue to impact forest carbon stocks and fluxes. The magnitude of this impact remains uncertain, and observation-based studies are often limited by short time intervals or small study areas. To better understand the long-term impact of forest degradation and recovery, we have been developing a framework that integrates field plot measurements and airborne lidar surveys into an individual- and process-based model (Ecosystem Demography model, ED). We modeled forest dynamics for three forest landscapes in the Amazon with diverse degradation histories: conventional and reduced-impact logging, logging and burning, and multiple burns. Based on the initialization with contemporary forest structure and composition, model results suggest that degraded forests rapidly recover (30 years) water and energy fluxes compared with old-growth, even at sites that were affected by multiple fires. However, degraded forests maintained different carbon stocks and fluxes even after 100 years without further disturbances, because of persistent differences in forest structure and composition. Recurrent disturbances may hinder the recovery of degraded forests. Simulations using a simple fire model entirely dependent on environmental controls indicate that the most degraded forests would take much longer to reach biomass typical of old-growth forests, because drier conditions near the ground make subsequent fires more intense and more recurrent. Fires in tropical forests are also closely related to nearby human activities; while results suggest an important feedback between fires and the microenvironment, additional work is needed to improve how the model represents the human impact on current and future fire regimes. Our study highlights that recovery of degraded forests may act as an important carbon sink, but efficient recovery depends on controlling future disturbances.

  20. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  1. Toward bridging the gap between biological, psychobiological and psychosocial models of alcohol craving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monti, P M; Rohsenow, D J; Hutchison, K E

    2000-08-01

    Urge to drink ("craving") has been a central focus of many theories and treatments, but some researchers question the importance of urges during recovery. Several studies assessed reactions to the presence of beverage alcohol (cue-reactivity) or to simulated high-risk situations (role plays). Higher urges in response to role plays predicted more drinking during the 6 months after treatment. However, urges in response to beverage cues were inconsistently predictive of outcome while measures of awareness or attention to cues predicted less drinking. Urge to drink might reflect a conflict between motivation to drink and awareness of danger. Whether urges predict increased risk of drinking should be a function of factors that affect motivation to drink, awareness of risk and effectiveness of coping. Cue-reactivity assessment has recently been used to bridge the gap between psychosocial and biomedical approaches in several ways: (1) salivation to cues predicts increased drinking independent of urge or attention, showing the value of including both physiological and psychosocial measures; (2) naltrexone has been shown to decrease cue-elicited urge to drink, illustrating the value of this assessment methodology for medications evaluation and (3) pre-pulse inhibition of startle response is being used to investigate the role of dopaminergic pathways in cue-elicited urge. Thus, this laboratory based program of research has the potential to add to knowledge of both biomedical and psychosocial mechanisms involved in urge and relapse, leading to greater integration of models.

  2. An individual-based growth and competition model for coastal redwood forest restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Das, Adrian J.

    2014-01-01

    Thinning treatments to accelerate coastal redwood forest stand development are in wide application, but managers have yet to identify prescriptions that might best promote Sequoia sempervirens (Lamb. ex D. Don) Endl. (redwood) growth. The creation of successful thinning prescriptions would be aided by identifying the underlying mechanisms governing how individual tree growth responds to competitive environments in coastal redwood forests. We created a spatially explicit individual-based model of tree competition and growth parameterized using surveys of upland redwood forests at Redwood National Park, California. We modeled competition for overstory trees (stems ≥ 20 cm stem diameter at breast height, 1.37 m (dbh)) as growth reductions arising from sizes, distances, and species identity of competitor trees. Our model explained up to half of the variation in individual tree growth, suggesting that neighborhood crowding is an important determinant of growth in this forest type. We used our model to simulate the effects of novel thinning prescriptions (e.g., 40% stand basal area removal) for redwood forest restoration, concluding that these treatments could lead to substantial growth releases, particularly for S. sempervirens. The results of this study, along with continued improvements to our model, will help to determine spacing and species composition that best encourage growth.

  3. Designing a Qualitative Data Collection Strategy (QDCS) for Africa - Phase 1: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    QDCS) for Africa – Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa Ashley N. Bybee , Project Leader Dominick E...Strategy (QDCS) for Africa – Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa Ashley N. Bybee , Project Leader...Africa Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa June 2012 Authors: Dr. Ashley Bybee , Project Lead Dr

  4. Improving simulated spatial distribution of productivity and biomass in Amazon forests using the ACME land model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Shi, X.; Xu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Norby, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical forests play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for one third of the global NPP and containing about 25% of global vegetation biomass and soil carbon. This is particularly true for tropical forests in the Amazon region, as it comprises approximately 50% of the world's tropical forests. It is therefore important for us to understand and represent the processes that determine the fluxes and storage of carbon in these forests. In this study, we show that the implementation of phosphorus (P) cycle and P limitation in the ACME Land Model (ALM) improves simulated spatial pattern of NPP. The P-enabled ALM is able to capture the west-to-east gradient of productivity, consistent with field observations. We also show that by improving the representation of mortality processes, ALM is able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of above ground biomass across the Amazon region.

  5. Absorber Model: the Halo-like model for the Lyman-α forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iršič, Vid; McQuinn, Matthew

    2018-04-01

    We present a semi-analytic model for the Lyman-α forest that is inspired by the Halo Model. This model is built on the absorption line decomposition of the forest. Flux correlations are decomposed into those within each absorption line (the 1-absorber term) and those between separate lines (the 2-absorber term), treating the lines as biased tracers of the underlying matter fluctuations. While the nonlinear exponential mapping between optical depth and flux requires an infinite series of moments to calculate any statistic, we show that this series can be re-summed (truncating at the desired order in the linear matter overdensity). We focus on the z=2–3 line-of-sight power spectrum. Our model finds that 1-absorber term dominates the power on all scales, with most of its contribution coming from H I columns of 1014–1015 cm‑2, while the smaller 2-absorber contribution comes from lower columns that trace overdensities of a few. The prominence of the 1-absorber correlations indicates that the line-of-sight power spectrum is shaped principally by the lines' number densities and their absorption profiles, with correlations between lines contributing to a lesser extent. We present intuitive formulae for the effective optical depth as well as the large-scale limits of 1-absorber and 2-absorber terms, which simplify to integrals over the H I column density distribution with different equivalent-width weightings. With minimalist models for the bias of absorption systems and their peculiar velocity broadening, our model predicts values for the density bias and velocity gradient bias that are consistent with those found in simulations.

  6. Use of multispecies occupancy models to evaluate the response of bird communities to forest degradation associated with logging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Rubio, Eduardo; Kéry, Marc; Morreale, Stephen J; Sullivan, Patrick J; Gardner, Beth; Cooch, Evan G; Lassoie, James P

    2014-08-01

    Forest degradation is arguably the greatest threat to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and rural livelihoods. Therefore, increasing understanding of how organisms respond to degradation is essential for management and conservation planning. We were motivated by the need for rapid and practical analytical tools to assess the influence of management and degradation on biodiversity and system state in areas subject to rapid environmental change. We compared bird community composition and size in managed (ejido, i.e., communally owned lands) and unmanaged (national park) forests in the Sierra Tarahumara region, Mexico, using multispecies occupancy models and data from a 2-year breeding bird survey. Unmanaged sites had on average higher species occupancy and richness than managed sites. Most species were present in low numbers as indicated by lower values of detection and occupancy associated with logging-induced degradation. Less than 10% of species had occupancy probabilities >0.5, and degradation had no positive effects on occupancy. The estimated metacommunity size of 125 exceeded previous estimates for the region, and sites with mature trees and uneven-aged forest stand characteristics contained the highest species richness. Higher estimation uncertainty and decreases in richness and occupancy for all species, including habitat generalists, were associated with degraded young, even-aged stands. Our findings show that multispecies occupancy methods provide tractable measures of biodiversity and system state and valuable decision support for landholders and managers. These techniques can be used to rapidly address gaps in biodiversity information, threats to biodiversity, and vulnerabilities of species of interest on a landscape level, even in degraded or fast-changing environments. Moreover, such tools may be particularly relevant in the assessment of species richness and distribution in a wide array of habitats. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. Bridging the Gap between Physiology and Behavior: Evidence from the sSoTS Model of Human Visual Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavritsaki, Eirini; Heinke, Dietmar; Allen, Harriet; Deco, Gustavo; Humphreys, Glyn W.

    2011-01-01

    We present the case for a role of biologically plausible neural network modeling in bridging the gap between physiology and behavior. We argue that spiking-level networks can allow "vertical" translation between physiological properties of neural systems and emergent "whole-system" performance--enabling psychological results to be simulated from…

  8. Caliver: An R package for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitolo, Claudia; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; D'Andrea, Mirko

    2018-01-01

    The name caliver stands for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs. This is a package developed for the R programming language and available under an APACHE-2 license from a public repository. In this paper we describe the functionalities of the package and give examples using publicly available datasets. Fire danger model outputs are taken from the modeling components of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and observed burned areas from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED). Complete documentation, including a vignette, is also available within the package.

  9. The carbon fluxes in different successional stages: modelling the dynamics of tropical montane forests in South Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Paulick

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Tropical forests play an important role in the global carbon (C cycle. However, tropical montane forests have been studied less than tropical lowland forests, and their role in carbon storage is not well understood. Montane forests are highly endangered due to logging, land-use and climate change. Our objective was to analyse how the carbon balance changes during forest succession. Methods In this study, we used a method to estimate local carbon balances that combined forest inventory data with process-based forest models. We utilised such a forest model to study the carbon balance of a tropical montane forest in South Ecuador, comparing two topographical slope positions (ravines and lower slopes vs upper slopes and ridges. Results The simulation results showed that the forest acts as a carbon sink with a maximum net ecosystem exchange (NEE of 9.3 Mg C∙(ha∙yr−1 during its early successional stage (0–100 years. In the late successional stage, the simulated NEE fluctuated around zero and had a variation of 0.77 Mg C∙(ha∙yr –1. The simulated variability of the NEE was within the range of the field data. We discovered several forest attributes (e.g., basal area or the relative amount of pioneer trees that can serve as predictors for NEE for young forest stands (0–100 years but not for those in the late successional stage (500–1,000 years. In case of young forest stands these correlations are high, especially between stand basal area and NEE. Conclusion In this study, we used an Ecuadorian study site as an example of how to successfully link a forest model with forest inventory data, for estimating stem-diameter distributions, biomass and aboveground net primary productivity. To conclude, this study shows that process-based forest models can be used to investigate the carbon balance of tropical montane forests. With this model it is possible to find hidden relationships between forest attributes and forest carbon fluxes

  10. Modeling the early-phase redistribution of radiocesium fallouts in an evergreen coniferous forest after Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calmon, P.; Gonze, M.-A.; Mourlon, Ch.

    2015-10-01

    Following the Chernobyl accident, the scientific community gained numerous data on the transfer of radiocesium in European forest ecosystems, including information regarding the short-term redistribution of atmospheric fallout onto forest canopies. In the course of international programs, the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) developed a forest model, named TREE4 (Transfer of Radionuclides and External Exposure in FORest systems), 15 years ago. Recently published papers on a Japanese evergreen coniferous forest contaminated by Fukushima radiocesium fallout provide interesting and quantitative data on radioactive mass fluxes measured within the forest in the months following the accident. The present study determined whether the approach adopted in the TREE4 model provides satisfactory results for Japanese forests or whether it requires adjustments. This study focused on the interception of airborne radiocesium by forest canopy, and the subsequent transfer to the forest floor through processes such as litterfall, throughfall, and stemflow, in the months following the accident. We demonstrated that TREE4 quite satisfactorily predicted the interception fraction (20%) and the canopy-to-soil transfer (70% of the total deposit in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest. This dynamics was similar to that observed in the Höglwald spruce forest. However, the unexpectedly high contribution of litterfall (31% in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest could not be reproduced in our simulations (2.5%). Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed; and sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in deposition conditions was analyzed. - Highlights: • Transfer of radiocesium atmospheric fallout in evergreen forests was modeled. • The model was tested using observations from Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. • Model predictions of canopy interception and depuration agree with measurements. • Unexpectedly high contribution of litterfall for the

  11. Model predictions for atmospheric air breakdown by radio-frequency excitation in large gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, H. K.; Mankowski, J.; Dickens, J. C.; Neuber, A. A.; Joshi, R. P.

    2017-07-01

    The behavior of the breakdown electric field versus frequency (DC to 100 MHz) for different gap lengths has been studied numerically at atmospheric pressure. Unlike previous reports, the focus here is on much larger gap lengths in the 1-5 cm range. A numerical analysis, with transport coefficients obtained from Monte Carlo calculations, is used to ascertain the electric field thresholds at which the growth and extinction of the electron population over time are balanced. Our analysis is indicative of a U-shaped frequency dependence, lower breakdown fields with increasing gap lengths, and trends qualitatively similar to the frequency-dependent field behavior for microgaps. The low frequency value of ˜34 kV/cm for a 1 cm gap approaches the reported DC Paschen limit.

  12. The Gap-Startle Paradigm for Tinnitus Screening in Animal Models: Limitations and Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobarinas, Edward; Hayes, Sarah H.; Allman, Brian L.

    2012-01-01

    In 2006, Turner and colleagues (Behav Neurosci, 120:188–195) introduced the gap-startle paradigm as a high-throughput method for tinnitus screening in rats. Under this paradigm, gap detection ability was assessed by determining the level of inhibition of the acoustic startle reflex produced by a short silent gap inserted in an otherwise continuous background sound prior to a loud startling stimulus. Animals with tinnitus were expected to show impaired gap detection ability (i.e., lack of inhibition of the acoustic startle reflex) if the background sound containing the gap was qualitatively similar to the tinnitus pitch. Thus, for the gap-startle paradigm to be a valid tool to screen for tinnitus, a robust startle response from which to inhibit must be present. Because recent studies have demonstrated that the acoustic startle reflex could be dramatically reduced following noise exposure, we endeavored to 1) modify the gap-startle paradigm to be more resilient in the presence of hearing loss, and 2) evaluate whether a reduction in startle reactivity could confound the interpretation of gap prepulse inhibition and lead to errors in screening for tinnitus. In the first experiment, the traditional broadband noise (BBN) startle stimulus was replaced by a bandpass noise in which the sound energy was concentrated in the lower frequencies (5–10 kHz) in order to maintain audibility of the startle stimulus after unilateral high frequency noise exposure (16 kHz). However, rats still showed a 57% reduction in startle amplitude to the bandpass noise post-noise exposure. A follow-up experiment on a separate group of rats with transiently-induced conductive hearing loss revealed that startle reactivity was better preserved when the BBN startle stimulus was replaced by a rapid airpuff to the back of the rats neck. Furthermore, it was found that transient unilateral conductive hearing loss, which was not likely to induce tinnitus, caused an impairment in gap prepulse inhibition

  13. Exponential vanishing of the ground-state gap of the quantum random energy model via adiabatic quantum computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adame, J.; Warzel, S.

    2015-11-01

    In this note, we use ideas of Farhi et al. [Int. J. Quantum. Inf. 6, 503 (2008) and Quantum Inf. Comput. 11, 840 (2011)] who link a lower bound on the run time of their quantum adiabatic search algorithm to an upper bound on the energy gap above the ground-state of the generators of this algorithm. We apply these ideas to the quantum random energy model (QREM). Our main result is a simple proof of the conjectured exponential vanishing of the energy gap of the QREM.

  14. Exponential vanishing of the ground-state gap of the quantum random energy model via adiabatic quantum computing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adame, J.; Warzel, S.

    2015-01-01

    In this note, we use ideas of Farhi et al. [Int. J. Quantum. Inf. 6, 503 (2008) and Quantum Inf. Comput. 11, 840 (2011)] who link a lower bound on the run time of their quantum adiabatic search algorithm to an upper bound on the energy gap above the ground-state of the generators of this algorithm. We apply these ideas to the quantum random energy model (QREM). Our main result is a simple proof of the conjectured exponential vanishing of the energy gap of the QREM

  15. Modeling demographic performance of northern spotted owls relative to forest habitat in Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Gail S.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Anthony, Robert G.; Forsman, Eric D.; Reid, Janice A.; Loschl, Peter J.; Ripple, William J.

    2004-01-01

    Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) are known to be associated with late-successional forests in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, but the effects of habitat on their demographic performance are relatively unknown. We developed statistical models relating owl survival and productivity to forest cover types within the Roseburg Study Area in the Oregon Coast Range of Oregon, USA. We further combined these demographic parameters using a Leslie-type matrix to obtain an estimate of habitat fitness potential for each owl territory (n = 94). We used mark–recapture methods to develop models for survival and linear mixed models for productivity. We measured forest composition and landscape patterns at 3 landscape scales centered on nest and activity sites within owl territories using an aerial photo-based map and a Geographic Information System (GIS). We also considered additional covariates such as age, sex, and presence of barred owls (Strix varia), and seasonal climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in our models. We used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to rank and compare models. Survival had a quadratic relationship with the amount of late- and mid-seral forests within 1,500 m of nesting centers. Survival also was influenced by the amount of precipitation during the nesting season. Only 16% of the variability in survival was accounted for by our best model, but 85% of this was due to the habitat variable. Reproductive rates fluctuated biennially and were positively related to the amount of edge between late- and mid-seral forests and other habitat classes. Reproductive rates also were influenced by parent age, amount of precipitation during nesting season, and presence of barred owls. Our best model accounted for 84% of the variability in productivity, but only 3% of that was due to the habitat variable. Estimates of habitat fitness potential (which may range from 0 to infinity) for the 94 territories ranged from 0.74 to 1

  16. A Capstone Project Using the Gap Analysis Model: Closing the College Readiness Gap for Latino English Language Learners with a Focus on School Support and School Counseling Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, Evelyn

    2013-01-01

    This capstone project applied Clark and Estes' (2008) gap analysis framework to identify performance gaps, develop perceived root causes, validate the causes, and formulate research-based solutions to present to Trojan High School. The purpose was to examine ways to increase the academic achievement of ELL students, specifically Latinos, by…

  17. A dendrochronological analysis of a disturbance-succession model for oak-pine forests of the Appalachian Mountains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick H. Brose; Thomas A. Waldrop

    2010-01-01

    Disturbance-succession models describe the relationship between the disturbance regime and the dominant tree species of a forest type. Such models are useful tools in ecosystem management and restoration, provided they are accurate. We tested a disturbance-succession model for the oak-pine (Quercus spp. - Pinus spp.) forests of the...

  18. Development of a GIS interface for WEPP Model application to Great Lakes forested watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. R. Frankenberger; S. Dun; D. C. Flanagan; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    This presentation will highlight efforts on development of a new online WEPP GIS interface, targeted toward application in forested regions bordering the Great Lakes. The key components and algorithms of the online GIS system will be outlined. The general procedures used to provide input to the WEPP model and to display model output will be demonstrated.

  19. Application of two forest succession models at sites in Northeast Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lasch, P.; Lindner, M.

    1995-06-01

    In order to simulate potential impacts of climate change on forests, two succession models were applied to sites in the Northeast German lowlands. The models, which had been developed for Alpine (FORECE) and Boreal (FORSKA) forests differ from each other in the way they represent tree growth processes and the impact of environmental factors on establishment and growth. Both models were adjusted and compared with each other at sites that are situated along an ecological gradient from maritime to subcontinental climate. These sites are extending the former environmental space of model application towards water limited conditions, which under a predicted climatic change may have increasing importance for European forests. First results showed that FORECE was unrealistically sensitive to changes in soil moisture. On the other hand, FORSKA generally simulated very low biomasses. Since the structure of FORSKA seemed to be better suited for the simulation of changing environmental conditions, this model was chosen for further model development, applications and sensitivity analyses. Among other changes, establishment rates were increased and some environmental response factors were analysed. The function of account for resource depletion was modified. After the modifications for Central European conditions were made, there was a decrease in performance for the Boreal site. Both simulated total biomasses and species composition had changed. We conclude, that with currently available models, realistic forest dynamics within different climatic zones of Europe cannot be simulated without more substantial model modifications. (orig.)

  20. Comparing i-Tree modeled ozone deposition with field measurements in a periurban Mediterranean forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Morani; D. Nowak; S. Hirabayashi; G. Guidolotti; M. Medori; V. Muzzini; S. Fares; G. Scarascia Mugnozza; C. Calfapietra

    2014-01-01

    Ozone flux estimates from the i-Tree model were compared with ozone flux measurements using the Eddy Covariance technique in a periurban Mediterranean forest near Rome (Castelporziano). For the first time i-Tree model outputs were compared with field measurements in relation to dry deposition estimates. Results showed generally a...