WorldWideScience

Sample records for forecasts population change

  1. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

    2003-01-01

    Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

  2. Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2003-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

  3. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

  4. Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Homer, Collin G.; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Adler, Peter B.

    2016-01-01

    Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

  5. Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Zhao, Yingming; Stockwell, Jason D.

    2006-01-01

    Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965–2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreum). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

  6. Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

    2017-01-01

    Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist

  7. Forecasting reliability of transformer populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijndel, van A.; Wetzer, J.; Wouters, P.A.A.F.

    2007-01-01

    The expected replacement wave in the current power grid faces asset managers with challenging questions. Setting up a replacement strategy and planning calls for a forecast of the long term component reliability. For transformers the future failure probability can be predicted based on the ongoing

  8. Forecasting autoregressive time series under changing persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson

    Changing persistence in time series models means that a structural change from nonstationarity to stationarity or vice versa occurs over time. Such a change has important implications for forecasting, as negligence may lead to inaccurate model predictions. This paper derives generally applicable...

  9. The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Søren; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Vaupel, James W.

    -population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations......Coherent forecasting models that take into consideration mortality changes observed in different countries are today among the essential tools for demographers, actuaries and other researchers interested in forecasts. Medium and long term life expectancy forecasts are compared for two multi...... is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect...

  10. Climate change: Factors and forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, W.R.

    1990-01-01

    An overview is presented of global climatic change. The greenhouse effect is an established physical phenomena. The reradiative effects of various anthropogenic gases are scientifically demonstrable, and the increasing concentration of such gases in the atmosphere is irrefutable. The delinquent information is the magnitude of the agravated greenhouse effect (AGE)-induced climatic change, the temporal pace of the change and its spatial distribution. The pace of the climatic change implied by many of the general circulation model (GCM) estimates is for a northern hemispheric warming 10-50 times faster than the change since the last ice age. At a relatively aggregated representation, researching the impact of climate change involves estimating energy use and greenhouse gas atmospheric retention, climate modeling and socio-economic impact models. Recognizing that certain of the impacts of anthropogenic gasses will prove to be cumulative, non-reversible and synergistic, it would be prudent to examine mitigating options for immediate implementation. Given the current degree of scientific uncertainty, response priorities would be on the no-regrets or covering-the-bets options. 14 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  11. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  12. China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yunshi; Teter, Jacob; Sperling, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    China's vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6-11% per year into the foreseeable future. Barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the Chinese economy, we suggest that those forecasts are conservative. We analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history. We estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13-17% per year-roughly twice the rate forecasted for China by others. Applying these higher growth rates to China results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others, implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the International Energy Agency and others. - Highlights: → We use large, car-producing countries as models in forecasting vehicle ownership in China. → We find that vehicle growth rates in China could be twice as high as forecasted by others (including IEA). → Motorization is occurring quickly across all regions in China, not just the richer coastal areas.

  13. Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Caswell, Hal; DeWeaver, Eric; Stirling, Ian; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Hunter, Christine M.

    2009-01-01

    Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38(5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific

  14. The population Doomsday forecast: lessons from Kerala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, J A

    1993-12-01

    The discussion of fertility decline in Kerala state, India, focused on fertility decline in Kerala state and the role of the UN. Key features of Kerala's success in fertility decline were the emphasis on female education and the emancipation of women, reduced infant and child mortality rates, and political support. Since 1956 when the states of Cochin and Travancore were joined, the development of education and health services was encouraged. Literacy was over 90% in Kerala compared to 62% for males and 34% for females in India in 1990. Kerala's government invested in primary and secondary education, primary health care, and family planning services. 12% of Kerala's education budget is devoted to "higher" education compared to 47% of national government expenditures. Inheritance of property was matrilineal. 85% of girls aged under 14 years stayed in school in Kerala compared to 21% nationally. The mean age of marriage is 21.9 years compared to 18.3 years nationally. The sex ratio, life expectancy, and child mortality rates were favorable to females. In 1987 the crude birth rate was 22/1000 population in Kerala and 32/1000 nationally. The infant mortality rate was 27/1000 live births in Kerala and 94/1000 nationally. Contraceptive use in Kerala was predominately female sterilization, followed by the condom. Successful features of Kerala's fertility decline are potentially transportable to African countries where women already play an important role in trade and shopkeeping. Emphasis must be simultaneously placed on primary health care and free family planning services that are easily accessible at all levels of health care. With political will, African or poor countries should be able to afford these programs. The UN and its agencies should be the unifying force promoting and supporting education, primary health care, and family planning services on a worldwide scale. However, the authority and expertise within the UN has not been sufficient to meet this challenge.

  15. Aviation Turbulence: Dynamics, Forecasting, and Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storer, Luke N.; Williams, Paul D.; Gill, Philip G.

    2018-03-01

    Atmospheric turbulence is a major hazard in the aviation industry and can cause injuries to passengers and crew. Understanding the physical and dynamical generation mechanisms of turbulence aids with the development of new forecasting algorithms and, therefore, reduces the impact that it has on the aviation industry. The scope of this paper is to review the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change, and current forecasting methods at the cruising altitude of aircraft. Aviation-affecting turbulence comes from three main sources: vertical wind shear instabilities, convection, and mountain waves. Understanding these features helps researchers to develop better turbulence diagnostics. Recent research suggests that turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important in the future. The current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. The skill of operational turbulence forecasts has increased steadily over recent decades, mirroring improvements in our understanding. However, more work is needed—ideally in collaboration with the aviation industry—to improve observations and increase forecast skill, to help maintain and enhance aviation safety standards in the future.

  16. Forecasting Long Memory Series Subject to Structural Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Papailias, Fotis

    A two-stage forecasting approach for long memory time series is introduced. In the first step we estimate the fractional exponent and, applying the fractional differencing operator, we obtain the underlying weakly dependent series. In the second step, we perform the multi-step ahead forecasts...... for the weakly dependent series and obtain their long memory counterparts by applying the fractional cumulation operator. The methodology applies to stationary and nonstationary cases. Simulations and an application to seven time series provide evidence that the new methodology is more robust to structural...... change and yields good forecasting results....

  17. Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels...... and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate......-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how...

  18. Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

  19. Incorporating operational experience and design changes in availability forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norman, D.

    1988-01-01

    Reliability or availability forecasts which are based solely on past operating experience will be precise if the sample is large enough, and unbiased if nothing in the future design, environment, operating region or anything else changes. Unfortunately, life is never like that. This paper considers the methodology and philosophy of modifying forecasts based on past experience to take account also of changes in design, construction methods, operating philosophy, environments, operator training and so on, between the plants which provided the operating experience and the plant for which the forecast is being made. This emphasises the importance of collecting, assessing, and learning from past data and of a thorough knowledge of future designs, and procurement, operation, and maintenance policies. The difference between targets and central estimates is also discussed. The paper concludes that improvements in future availability can be made by learning from past experience, but that certain conditions must be fulfilled in order to do so. (author)

  20. A Note on Forecasting the Rate of Change of the Price of Oil: Asymmetric Loss and Forecast Rationality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We study whether forecasts of the rate of change of the price of oil are rational. To this end, we consider a model that allows the shape of forecasters’ loss function to be studied. The shape of forecasters’ loss function may be consistent with a symmetric or an asymmetric loss function. We find that an asymmetric loss function often (but not always makes forecasts look rational, and we also report that forecast rationality may have changed over time.

  1. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  2. Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2018-03-01

    Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

  3. Leveraging organismal biology to forecast the effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Lauren B; Cannistra, Anthony F; John, Aji

    2018-04-26

    Despite the pressing need for accurate forecasts of ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change, commonly used modelling approaches exhibit mixed performance because they omit many important aspects of how organisms respond to spatially and temporally variable environments. Integrating models based on organismal phenotypes at the physiological, performance and fitness levels can improve model performance. We summarize current limitations of environmental data and models and discuss potential remedies. The paper reviews emerging techniques for sensing environments at fine spatial and temporal scales, accounting for environmental extremes, and capturing how organisms experience the environment. Intertidal mussel data illustrate biologically important aspects of environmental variability. We then discuss key challenges in translating environmental conditions into organismal performance including accounting for the varied timescales of physiological processes, for responses to environmental fluctuations including the onset of stress and other thresholds, and for how environmental sensitivities vary across lifecycles. We call for the creation of phenotypic databases to parameterize forecasting models and advocate for improved sharing of model code and data for model testing. We conclude with challenges in organismal biology that must be solved to improve forecasts over the next decade.acclimation, biophysical models, ecological forecasting, extremes, microclimate, spatial and temporal variability.

  4. Comparison between ARIMA and DES Methods of Forecasting Population for Housing Demand in Johor

    OpenAIRE

    Alias Ahmad Rizal; Zainun Noor Yasmin; Abdul Rahman Ismail

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting accuracy is a primary criterion in selecting appropriate method of prediction. Even though there are various methods of forecasting however not all of these methods are able to predict with good accuracy. This paper presents an evaluation of two methods of population forecasting for housing demand. These methods are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). Both of the methods are principally adopting univariate time series analysis w...

  5. Forecasting electric demand of distribution system planing in rural and sparsely populated regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Buri, M.J. [ABB Automated Distribution Div., Raleigh, NC (United States); Finley, L.A. [Snohomish County PUD, Everett, WA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    Modern computerized distribution load forecasting methods, although accurate when applied to urban areas, give somewhat less satisfactory results when forecasting load growth in sparsely populated rural areas. This paper examines the differences between rural and urban load growth histories, identifying a major difference in the observed behavior of load growth. This difference is exploited in a new simulation forecasting algorithm. Tests show the new method is as accurate in forecasting rural load growth and as useful for analyzing DSM impacts than past methods, while requiring considerably lower computer resources and data than other simulation methods of comparable accuracy.

  6. Structural change and forecasting long-run energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, J.T.; Khalaf, L.

    2004-01-01

    Fluctuating energy prices have a significant impact on the economies of industrialized nations. A recent study has shown a strong non-linear relationship between changes in oil prices and growth in gross domestic product (GDP). In order to forecast the behaviour of energy prices, a complete model must take into account domestic and international supply and demand conditions, market regulations, technological advances and geopolitics. In 1999, Pindyck suggested that for long-term forecasting, a simple model should be adopted where prices grow in real terms and at a fixed rate. This paper tests the statistical significance of Pindyck's suggested class of econometric equations that model the behaviour of long-run real energy prices. The models assume mean-reverting prices with continuous and random changes in their level and trend. They are estimated using Kalman filtering. The authors used simulation-based procedures to address the issue of non-standard test statistics and nuisance parameters. Results were reported for a standard Monte Carlo test and a maximized Monte Carlo test. Results shown statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices, but not for crude oil prices. Various models were differentiated using out-of-sample forecasting exercises. 25 refs., 3 tabs

  7. Comparison between ARIMA and DES Methods of Forecasting Population for Housing Demand in Johor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alias Ahmad Rizal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting accuracy is a primary criterion in selecting appropriate method of prediction. Even though there are various methods of forecasting however not all of these methods are able to predict with good accuracy. This paper presents an evaluation of two methods of population forecasting for housing demand. These methods are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES. Both of the methods are principally adopting univariate time series analysis which uses past and present data for forecasting. Secondary data obtained from Department of Statistics, Malaysia was used to forecast population for housing demand in Johor. Forecasting processes had generated 14 models to each of the methods and these models where evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE. It was found that 14 of Double Exponential Smoothing models and also 14 of ARIMA models had resulted to 1.674% and 5.524% of average MAPE values respectively. Hence, the Double Exponential Smoothing method outperformed the ARIMA method by reducing 4.00 % in forecasting model population for Johor state. These findings help researchers and government agency in selecting appropriate forecasting model for housing demand.

  8. The development of a probabilistic approach to forecast coastal change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, Erika E.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Rosati, Julie D.; Wang, Ping; Roberts, Tiffany M.

    2011-01-01

    This study demonstrates the applicability of a Bayesian probabilistic model as an effective tool in predicting post-storm beach changes along sandy coastlines. Volume change and net shoreline movement are modeled for two study sites at Fire Island, New York in response to two extratropical storms in 2007 and 2009. Both study areas include modified areas adjacent to unmodified areas in morphologically different segments of coast. Predicted outcomes are evaluated against observed changes to test model accuracy and uncertainty along 163 cross-shore transects. Results show strong agreement in the cross validation of predictions vs. observations, with 70-82% accuracies reported. Although no consistent spatial pattern in inaccurate predictions could be determined, the highest prediction uncertainties appeared in locations that had been recently replenished. Further testing and model refinement are needed; however, these initial results show that Bayesian networks have the potential to serve as important decision-support tools in forecasting coastal change.

  9. Ageing of a giant: a stochastic population forecast for China, 2006-2060

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Q.; Reuser, M.; Kraus, C.; Alho, J.S.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic population forecast for China with a special emphasis on population ageing. The so-called scaled model for error was used to quantify the uncertainty attached to the population predictions. Data scarcity was a major problem in the specification of the expected error

  10. An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, David J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints. (author)

  11. The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Winsemius, HC

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available -range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system. The focus is on the frequency of dry spells as well as the frequency of heat stress conditions expressed in the Temperature Heat Index. In areas where their frequency of occurrence increases...

  12. China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Yunshi, E-mail: yunwang@ucdavis.edu [Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Teter, Jacob, E-mail: jeteter@ucdavis.edu [Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Sperling, Daniel, E-mail: dsperling@ucdavis.edu [Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States)

    2011-06-15

    China's vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6-11% per year into the foreseeable future. Barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the Chinese economy, we suggest that those forecasts are conservative. We analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history. We estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13-17% per year-roughly twice the rate forecasted for China by others. Applying these higher growth rates to China results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others, implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the International Energy Agency and others. - Highlights: > We use large, car-producing countries as models in forecasting vehicle ownership in China. > We find that vehicle growth rates in China could be twice as high as forecasted by others (including IEA). > Motorization is occurring quickly across all regions in China, not just the richer coastal areas.

  13. Forecasting land cover change impacts on drinking water treatment costs in Minneapolis, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woznicki, S. A.; Wickham, J.

    2017-12-01

    Source protection is a critical aspect of drinking water treatment. The benefits of protecting source water quality in reducing drinking water treatment costs are clear. However, forecasting the impacts of environmental change on source water quality and its potential to influence future treatment processes is lacking. The drinking water treatment plant in Minneapolis, MN has recognized that land cover change threatens water quality in their source watershed, the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Over 1,000 km2 of forests, wetlands, and grasslands in the UMRB were lost to agriculture from 2008-2013. This trend, coupled with a projected population increase of one million people in Minnesota by 2030, concerns drinking water treatment plant operators in Minneapolis with respect to meeting future demand for clean water in the UMRB. The objective of this study is to relate land cover change (forest and wetland loss, agricultural expansion, urbanization) to changes in treatment costs for the Minneapolis, MN drinking water utility. To do this, we first developed a framework to determine the relationship between land cover change and water quality in the context of recent historical changes and projected future changes in land cover. Next we coupled a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to projections of land cover change from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model for the mid-21st century. Using historical Minneapolis drinking water treatment data (chemical usage and costs), source water quality in the UMRB was linked to changes in treatment requirements as a function of projected future land cover change. These analyses will quantify the value of natural landscapes in protecting drinking water quality and future treatment processes requirements. In addition, our study provides the Minneapolis drinking water utility with information critical to their planning and capital improvement process.

  14. Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

    2018-05-08

    Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

  15. Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebb, Andrew T; Tay, Louis; Wang, Wei; Huang, Qiming

    2015-01-01

    Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that can address various topics of interest to psychological researchers, including describing the pattern of change in a variable, modeling seasonal effects, assessing the immediate and long-term impact of a salient event, and forecasting future values. To illustrate these methods, an illustrative example based on online job search behavior is used throughout the paper, and a software tutorial in R for these analyses is provided in the Supplementary Materials.

  16. Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebb, Andrew T.; Tay, Louis; Wang, Wei; Huang, Qiming

    2015-01-01

    Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that can address various topics of interest to psychological researchers, including describing the pattern of change in a variable, modeling seasonal effects, assessing the immediate and long-term impact of a salient event, and forecasting future values. To illustrate these methods, an illustrative example based on online job search behavior is used throughout the paper, and a software tutorial in R for these analyses is provided in the Supplementary Materials. PMID:26106341

  17. Analysts' Forecast Accuracy in Germany: The Effect of Different Accounting Principles and Changes of Accounting Principles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jürgen Ernstberger

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the influence of an adoption of IAS/IFRS or US GAAP on the financial analysts’ forecast accuracy in a homogenous institutional framework. Our findings suggest that the forecast accuracy is higher for estimates based on IFRS or US GAAP data than for forecasts based on German GAAP data. Moreover, in the year of switching from German GAAP to US GAAP the forecast accuracy is lower than in other years. The paper contributes to prior research by providing evidence about the usefulness of international accounting data and about the adoption effects of a change to such accounting principles.

  18. Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X.-J. Wang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22  ×  108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25  ×  108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

  19. Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Jun; Zhang, Jian-Yun; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Xie, Yu-Xuan; Zhang, Xu

    2018-02-01

    A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22 × 108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25 × 108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

  20. Biometeorological Forecasts as Adaptation Measures in the Contest of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ieva Nariūnaitė

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The basic aim of this paper is to review biometeorological forecasts in Lithuania as well as their necessities and adjustments toward climate change. Weather alterations and climate anomalies make a substantial impact on human health (physical and psychological, and therefore biometeorological forecasts are useful to foresee and elude some negative climate influence. Article in Lithuanian

  1. Forecasting the mortality rates of Malaysian population using Heligman-Pollard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Mohd, Razak; Ngataman, Nuraini; Abrisam, Wan Nur Azifah Wan Mohd

    2017-08-01

    Actuaries, demographers and other professionals have always been aware of the critical importance of mortality forecasting due to declining trend of mortality and continuous increases in life expectancy. Heligman-Pollard model was introduced in 1980 and has been widely used by researchers in modelling and forecasting future mortality. This paper aims to estimate an eight-parameter model based on Heligman and Pollard's law of mortality. Since the model involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory Version 7.0 (MATLAB 7.0) software will be used in order to estimate the parameters. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) will be applied to forecast all the parameters according to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The empirical data sets of Malaysian population for period of 1981 to 2015 for both genders will be considered, which the period of 1981 to 2010 will be used as "training set" and the period of 2011 to 2015 as "testing set". In order to investigate the accuracy of the estimation, the forecast results will be compared against actual data of mortality rates. The result shows that Heligman-Pollard model fit well for male population at all ages while the model seems to underestimate the mortality rates for female population at the older ages.

  2. Remote sensing for global change, climate change and atmosphere and ocean forecasting. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This volume is separated in three sessions. First part is on remote sensing for global change (with global modelling, land cover change on global scale, ocean colour studies of marine biosphere, biological and hydrological interactions and large scale experiments). Second part is on remote sensing for climate change (with earth radiation and clouds, sea ice, global climate research programme). Third part is on remote sensing for atmosphere and ocean forecasting (with temperatures and humidity, winds, data assimilation, cloud imagery, sea surface temperature, ocean waves and topography). (A.B.). refs., figs., tabs

  3. Energy demand and population change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, E L; Edmonds, J A

    1981-09-01

    During the post World War 2 years energy consumption has grown 136% while population grew about 51%; per capita consumption of energy expanded, therefore, about 60%. For a given population size, demographic changes mean an increase in energy needs; for instance the larger the group of retirement age people, the smaller their energy needs than are those for a younger group. Estimates indicate that by the year 2000 the energy impact will be toward higher per capita consumption with 60% of the population in the 19-61 age group of workers. Rising female labor force participation will increase the working group even more; it has also been found that income and energy grow at a proportional rate. The authors predict that gasoline consumption within the US will continue to rise with availability considering the larger number of female drivers and higher per capita incomes. The flow of illegal aliens (750,000/year) will have a major impact on income and will use greater amounts of energy than can be expected. A demographic change which will lower energy demands will be the slowdown of the rate of household formation caused by the falling number of young adults. The response of energy demand to price changes is small and slow but incomes play a larger role as does the number of personal automobiles and social changes affecting household formation. Households, commercial space, transportation, and industry are part of every demand analysis and population projections play a major role in determining these factors.

  4. Integrated Drought Monitoring and Forecasts for Decision Making in Water and Agricultural Sectors over the Southeastern US under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arumugam, S.; Mazrooei, A.; Ward, R.

    2017-12-01

    Changing climate arising from structured oscillations such as ENSO and rising temperature poses challenging issues in meeting the increasing water demand (due to population growth) for public supply and agriculture over the Southeast US. This together with infrastructural (e.g., most reservoirs being within-year systems) and operational (e.g., static rule curves) constraints requires an integrated approach that seamlessly monitors and forecasts water and soil moisture conditions to support adaptive decision making in water and agricultural sectors. In this talk, we discuss the utility of an integrated drought management portal that both monitors and forecasts streamflow and soil moisture over the southeast US. The forecasts are continuously developed and updated by forcing monthly-to-seasonal climate forecasts with a land surface model for various target basins. The portal also houses a reservoir allocation model that allows water managers to explore different release policies in meeting the system constraints and target storages conditioned on the forecasts. The talk will also demonstrate how past events (e.g., 2007-2008 drought) could be proactively monitored and managed to improve decision making in water and agricultural sectors over the Southeast US. Challenges in utilizing the portal information from institutional and operational perspectives will also be presented.

  5. Low flows: mechanisms, forecasts and climate change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demirel, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    A research on low flows may seem controversial for a “wet” country protected by dykes and barriers. However, low flows in dry summers such as in 1976, 1985 and 2003 indicate that it may happen also in the Rhine basin. Improved medium-range and seasonal low fow forecasts are important as there is an

  6. Recent and Upcoming Changes to NOAA Marine Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Graphics become operational on or around May 15, 2018 WFOs to be New Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System for Micronesia Effective February 13 of High Seas and Storm Warning over NIST Time Frequency Broadcasts through January 20, 2018 NWS

  7. U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change

    OpenAIRE

    Isengildina-Massa, Olga; MacDonald, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze structural changes that took place in the cotton industry in recent years and develop a statistical model that reflects the current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes authorized the U.S. Department of Agriculture to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in 79 years. In addition, systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review...

  8. A travel time forecasting model based on change-point detection method

    Science.gov (United States)

    LI, Shupeng; GUANG, Xiaoping; QIAN, Yongsheng; ZENG, Junwei

    2017-06-01

    Travel time parameters obtained from road traffic sensors data play an important role in traffic management practice. A travel time forecasting model is proposed for urban road traffic sensors data based on the method of change-point detection in this paper. The first-order differential operation is used for preprocessing over the actual loop data; a change-point detection algorithm is designed to classify the sequence of large number of travel time data items into several patterns; then a travel time forecasting model is established based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. By computer simulation, different control parameters are chosen for adaptive change point search for travel time series, which is divided into several sections of similar state.Then linear weight function is used to fit travel time sequence and to forecast travel time. The results show that the model has high accuracy in travel time forecasting.

  9. Long-term fashion forecast based on the sociological model of cyclic changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А V Lebsak-Kleimans

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The concepts of social changes coined by classical sociology may be incorporated as the basis for the elaboration of social prognostication models which, in turn, may suitable for fashion forecast applied technologies development. In the framework of the given paper fashion is described as the phenomenon of collective behaviour. The principles of long-term fashion trends forecast are shown to be in line with the concepts of cyclic development.

  10. Understanding land use change impacts on microclimate using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xia; Mitra, Chandana; Dong, Li; Yang, Qichun

    2018-02-01

    To explore potential climatic consequences of land cover change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Development area, we projected microclimate conditions in this area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by future land use scenarios. Specifically, we considered two land conversion scenarios including an urbanization scenario that all the wetlands and croplands would be converted to built-up areas, and an irrigation expansion scenario in which all wetlands and dry croplands would be replaced by irrigated croplands. Results indicated that land use and land cover (LULC) change would dramatically increase regional temperature in this area under the urbanization scenario, but expanded irrigation tended to have a cooling effect. In the urbanization scenario, precipitation center tended to move eastward and lead to increased rainfall in eastern parts of this region. Increased irrigation stimulated rainfall in central and eastern areas but reduced rainfall in southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area. This study also demonstrated that urbanization significantly reduced latent heat fluxes and albedo of land surface; while increased sensible heat flux changes following urbanization suggested that developed land surfaces mainly acted as heat sources. In this study, climate change projection not only predicts future spatiotemporal patterns of multiple climate factors, but also provides valuable insights into policy making related to land use management, water resource management, and agriculture management to adapt and mitigate future climate changes in this populous region.

  11. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  12. Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Rangel, Thiago Fernando

    2009-01-01

    Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources of uncer......Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources...... of uncertainty in ensembles of forecasts is presented. We model the distributions of 3837 New World birds and project them into 2080. We then quantify and map the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty from alternative methods for niche modeling, general circulation models (AOGCM......), and emission scenarios. The greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts of species range shifts arises from using alternative methods for niche modeling, followed by AOGCM, and their interaction. Our results concur with previous studies that discovered that projections from alternative models can be extremely...

  13. CONSTRUCTION OF STATISTICAL MODEL THE OVERALL POPULATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON THE BASIS OF RETROSPECTIVE FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ol’ga Sergeevna Kochegarova

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the retrospective forecast of the total population of the Russian Federation for the period 2001–2017. comparative analysis of the actual values of the total population of the Russian Federation on 20.03.2017 according to the Federal state statistics service of the Russian Federation received the forecast value. Model selection forecasting was carried out by the method of selection of growth curves on the basis of correlation and regression analysis and least squares method. A quality selection of the regression equation was determined with the least error of approximation of time series levels. Analysis of the significance of the selected regression equation by statistical methods allows to make a conclusion about the right choice of models and the possibility of its use for population estimates. Purpose: to estimate the significance of selected regression equations for the forecast of the population. Methodology in article: the fitting of growth curves on the basis of correlation and regression analysis and least squares method. Results: received confirmation of the effectiveness of the constructed model for forecasts of demographic processes. Practical implications: the obtained results should be used when building forecasts of demographic processes.

  14. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan M Requena-Mullor

    Full Text Available As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the

  15. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  16. Who Are Better Informed Before Analysts’ Forecast Changes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Jun Park

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Using Korean data, we investigate information asymmetry among investors before analysts change their stock recommendations. By comparing trading activities between individuals, institutions, and foreign investors, we find that there is information asymmetry before analysts change their recommendations. Institutional investors buy/sell the stock before recommendation upgrades/downgrades, but individuals and foreign investors do not anticipate the upcoming news. We also document that the trade imbalance of institutional investors are associated with stock returns upon the announcements of recommendation changes. This result indicates that institutions take advantage of their superior information around the recommendation changes.

  17. Mortality forecast from gastroduodenal ulcer disease for different gender and age population groups in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duzhiy I.D.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Until 2030 the ulcer mortality will have a growing trend as estimated by the World Health Organization. Detection of countries and population groups with high risks for the ulcer mortality is possible using forecast method. The authors made a forecast of mortality rate from complicated ulcer disease in males and females and their age groups (15-24, 25-34, 35-54, 55-74, over 75, 15 - over 75 in our country. The study included data of the World Health Organization Database from 1991 to 2012. The work analyzed absolute all-Ukrainian numbers of persons of both genders died from the ulcer causes (К25-К27 coded by the 10th International Diseases Classification. The relative mortality per 100 000 of alive persons of the same age was calculated de novo. The analysis of distribution laws and their estimation presents a trend of growth of the relative mortality. A remarkable increase of deaths from the ulcer disease is observed in males and females of the age after 55 years old. After the age of 75 years this trend is more expressed.

  18. Forecasting the Future: Exploring Evidence for Global Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    California Univ., San Diego, La Jolla. Inst. of Marine Resources.

    This curriculum and classroom activity guide considers evidence gathered in answer to questions concerning global environmental change. It describes methods that biologists, chemists, geologists, meteorologists, and physicists use to gather and interpret their findings. The activities and approaches in this guide were developed to meet the skill…

  19. Population change and the environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    The environmental and natural resource problems that afflict most countries of the Asian and Pacific region are caused by human activities, often arising from the needs of growing populations for land to cultivate subsistence crops. These include the farming of marginal land; insufficient fallow periods; the clearing of forest land for agriculture and the felling of trees for firewood and timber. Water pollution, air pollution, deforestation and desertification are related to human activities. One of the priorities for population and development planning in the region will be action-oriented research into the linkages, to guide national and regional development policies. Both population and environmental concerns must be integrated into social and economic development plans in order for development to be sustainable. To achieve these goals, rapid population growth must be slowed and eventually stabilized, while strategies on optimal population distribution should be formulated. Concomitantly, environmental conditions must be maintained or improved through reversing deforestation and erosion in major watersheds; checking the spread of deserts; introducing sustainable water management; reducing acidification and hazardous waste; developing and introducing environmentally safe industrial processes; eliminating hunger through sustainable agriculture; finding new and renewable sources of energy and increasing energy efficiency; and protecting animal and plant species and preventing further loss. To avoid the possible negative consequences, balanced development in an integrated fashion is called for. As far as environmental problems are concerned, there is a growing need for the planning mechanism to take demographic variables into account in a more integrated way than has been done in the past. For purposes of environmental and population planning, a longer-term approach should be taken in addition to the five-year plans.

  20. Forecasted Changes in West Africa Photovoltaic Energy Output by 2045

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serge Dimitri Yikwe Buri Bazyomo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on photovoltaic (PV output in the fifteen countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS was analyzed in this paper. Using a set of eight climate models, the trends of solar radiation and temperature between 2006–2100 were examined. Assuming a lifetime of 40 years, the future changes of photovoltaic energy output for the tilted plane receptor compared to 2006–2015 were computed for the whole region. The results show that the trends of solar irradiation are negative except for the Irish Centre for High-End Computing model which predicts a positive trend with a maximum value of 0.17 W/m2/year for Cape Verde and the minimum of −0.06 W/m2/year for Liberia. The minimum of the negative trend is −0.18 W/m2/year predicted by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC, developed at the University of Tokyo Center for Climate System Research for Cape Verde. Furthermore, temperature trends are positive with a maximum of 0.08 K/year predicted by MIROC for Niger and minimum of 0.03 K/year predicted by Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC, Max Planck Institute (MPI for Climate Meteorology at Hamburg, French National Meteorological Research Center (CNRM and Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA for Cape Verde. Photovolataic energy output changes show increasing trends in Sierra Leone with 0.013%/year as the maximum. Climate change will lead to a decreasing trend of PV output in the rest of the countries with a minimum of 0.032%/year in Niger.

  1. Development of a model forecasting Dermanyssus gallinae's population dynamics for advancing Integrated Pest Management in laying hen facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mul, Monique F; van Riel, Johan W; Roy, Lise; Zoons, Johan; André, Geert; George, David R; Meerburg, Bastiaan G; Dicke, Marcel; van Mourik, Simon; Groot Koerkamp, Peter W G

    2017-10-15

    The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting the pests' population dynamics in laying hen facilities without and post-treatment will contribute to this advanced IPM and could consequently improve implementation of IPM by farmers. The current work describes the development and demonstration of a model which can follow and forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae in laying hen facilities given the variation of the population growth of D. gallinae within and between flocks. This high variation could partly be explained by house temperature, flock age, treatment, and hen house. The total population growth variation within and between flocks, however, was in part explained by temporal variation. For a substantial part this variation was unexplained. A dynamic adaptive model (DAP) was consequently developed, as models of this type are able to handle such temporal variations. The developed DAP model can forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae, requiring only current flock population monitoring data, temperature data and information of the dates of any D. gallinae treatment. Importantly, the DAP model forecasted treatment effects, while compensating for location and time specific interactions, handling the variability of these parameters. The characteristics of this DAP model, and its compatibility with different mite monitoring methods, represent progression from existing approaches for forecasting D. gallinae that could contribute to advancing improved Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Population change and educational development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayasuriya, J E

    1982-06-01

    The 4 principal conditions of a stable society are: 1) minimum disruption of ecological processes, 2) maximum conservation of material and energy or an economy of stock rather than flow, 3) a population in which recruitment equals loss, and 4) a social system in which individuals can enjoy rather than be restricted by the 1st 3 conditions. In 1960 the developing countries set goals relating to education including the achievement of universal primary education, the eradication of illiteracy, and the provision of secondary and tertiary education to meet manpower needs. The countries with the highest enrollment ratios in 1980 were Korea, 100%, Singapore, 100%, Malaysia, 94%, Philippines 80.6%, Thailand, 77.8%, and Iran 75.5%. Eradication of illiteracy has not been reached since by 1990 Afghanistan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan will have illiteracy rates of over 50% and as a result of increases in the absolute number of illiterates over the period of 1970-90 in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, the number of illiterates in the developing countries of Asia will increase from 339.1 million in 1970 to 425.6 million in 1990. The females and rural population are especially disadvantaged groups in terms of education; 98.4% of rural females are illiterate as compared to 63.8% of urban males and in Iran 91.7% of rural females compared with 31.3% of urban males are illiterate. One reason for shortfalls in the achievement of educational goals is rapid population growth, especially of school-age groups; for instance the total population aged 6-11 in Indonesia increased by 89.3%. In a study on the Philippines conducted in 1975 it was found that, for the series of high projections, the schedule of age-specific fertility rates observed for 1968-72 resulting in a total fertility rate of 5.89 would remain constant throughout the projection period, the death rate would decline by 4.8 points, international migration would remain negligible; for the low projections

  3. Forecasting the mortality rates of Indonesian population by using neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safitri, Lutfiani; Mardiyati, Sri; Rahim, Hendrisman

    2018-03-01

    A model that can represent a problem is required in conducting a forecasting. One of the models that has been acknowledged by the actuary community in forecasting mortality rate is the Lee-Certer model. Lee Carter model supported by Neural Network will be used to calculate mortality forecasting in Indonesia. The type of Neural Network used is feedforward neural network aligned with backpropagation algorithm in python programming language. And the final result of this study is mortality rate in forecasting Indonesia for the next few years

  4. Using population viability analysis, genomics, and habitat suitability to forecast future population patterns of Little Owl Athene noctua across Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Line Holm; Sunde, Peter; Pellegrino, Irene; Loeschcke, Volker; Pertoldi, Cino

    2017-12-01

    The agricultural scene has changed over the past decades, resulting in a declining population trend in many species. It is therefore important to determine the factors that the individual species depend on in order to understand their decline. The landscape changes have also resulted in habitat fragmentation, turning once continuous populations into metapopulations. It is thus increasingly important to estimate both the number of individuals it takes to create a genetically viable population and the population trend. Here, population viability analysis and habitat suitability modeling were used to estimate population viability and future prospects across Europe of the Little Owl Athene noctua , a widespread species associated with agricultural landscapes. The results show a high risk of population declines over the coming 100 years, especially toward the north of Europe, whereas populations toward the southeastern part of Europe have a greater probability of persistence. In order to be considered genetically viable, individual populations must count 1,000-30,000 individuals. As Little Owl populations of several countries count <30,000, and many isolated populations in northern Europe count <1,000 individuals, management actions resulting in exchange of individuals between populations or even countries are probably necessary to prevent losing <1% genetic diversity over a 100-year period. At a continental scale, a habitat suitability analysis suggested Little Owl to be affected positively by increasing temperatures and urban areas, whereas an increased tree cover, an increasing annual rainfall, grassland, and sparsely vegetated areas affect the presence of the owl negatively. However, the low predictive power of the habitat suitability model suggests that habitat suitability might be better explained at a smaller scale.

  5. Medical weather forecast as the risk management facilities of meteopathia with population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efimenko, Natalya; Chalaya, Elena; Povolotskaia, Nina; Senik, Irina; Topuriya, David

    2013-04-01

    surface atmosphere. The correlation of the results of the research of external respiration function, cardiovascular and central nervous systems with people suffering from DA (187 people) made in days with favorable weathers, but different in natural anion quantity in the surface atmosphere, allowed us to develop similar physiological processes at the phenomena of natural deionization. When the anions amount reduces from 1255±38 ion/cm3 to 190±13 ion/cm3, we have detected the increase of tension of vegetative index (from 458±24 to 802±44), the decrease in efficiency of neurohumoral regulation (from 0,25±0,08 to 0,06±0,02), the increase of spectrum excitability of cortical activity in the wave range of delta 0 0.4 Hz by 29%, the decrease in cortical activity in the wave range of theta 4 … 8 Hz, alpha 8 … 13 Hz beta 13 … 19 Hz, gamma 19 … 25Hz by 4-10%; the decrease in organism adaptation layer by 14% and integrated health indicator by 18%. We have also detected similar processes in cardiovascular and respiratory systems. So the problem of creation of high-quality system of medical weather forecast for the population demands the performance of interdisciplinary researches in the field of medicine, biology, meteorology and the development of DMR risk management programs at various natural and anthropogenic stressors. The studies were performed by support of the Program "Basic Sciences for Medicine" and RFBR project No.10-05-01014_a.

  6. Gender, power, and population change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, N E

    1997-05-01

    This report describes fertility and mortality trends in developing countries and discusses how gender is defined and measured in some countries. The discussion relies on case studies and country statistics to reveal how gender shapes the lives of all people in all societies. Gender is defined as the different roles women and men play in society. Gender is manifested in institutional structures, power relations, and culturally determined behavior. In no society do women and men share equal roles. The effects of inequality for women are manifested differently between countries. The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo established the goal of gender equality. Educational enrollment and illiteracy are two measures of gender inequality that affect opportunities in society for advancement, power, and status. Girls are less likely to be enrolled in school than boys and more likely to have higher absenteeism rates. In China, absenteeism of girls is actually increasing under reforms. Marriage practices may devalue the investment in girls' education. Women experience different working conditions: they work longer hours, are paid less or not at all, and hold lower-status jobs. The exceptions are found in the Philippines and Brazil, where women hold more professional jobs than men. Women carry multiple responsibilities that consume time and prevent greater involvement in public life. Dowry and brideprice can constrain family relations. Women generally have fewer inheritance rights. Few women hold high-level public office positions or parliamentary seats. The extent to which gender inequality is reflected in demographic processes depends upon the gap in power in education, employment, and income. The relationship between gender and demographic processes is a central topic currently being researched.

  7. Forecasting the Optimal Factors of Formation of the Population Savings as the Basis for Investment Resources of the Regional Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odintsova Tetiana M.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the optimal factors of formation of the population savings as the basis for investment resources of the regional economy. A factorial (nonlinear correlative-regression analysis of the formation of savings of the population of Ukraine was completed. On its basis a forecast of the optimal structure and volumes of formation of the population incomes was carried out taking into consideration impact of fundamental factors on these incomes. Such approach provides to identify the marginal volumes of tax burden, population savings, and capital investments, directed to economic growth.

  8. The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valladares, Fernando; Matesanz, Silvia; Guilhaumon, François; Araújo, Miguel B; Balaguer, Luis; Benito-Garzón, Marta; Cornwell, Will; Gianoli, Ernesto; van Kleunen, Mark; Naya, Daniel E; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Poorter, Hendrik; Zavala, Miguel A

    2014-11-01

    Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

  9. Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Volkova

    Full Text Available This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like illness (ILI dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data and the state-of-the-art machine learning models, we build and evaluate the predictive power of neural network architectures based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs units capable of nowcasting (predicting in "real-time" and forecasting (predicting the future ILI dynamics in the 2011 - 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, embeddings, word ngrams, stylistic patterns, and communication behavior using hashtags and mentions. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks using a diverse set of evaluation metrics. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build a joint neural network model for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance, specifically for military rather than general populations in 26 U.S. and six international locations., and analyze how model performance depends on the amount of social media data available per location. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a Neural network architectures that rely on LSTM units trained on social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than stylistic and topic signals expressed in social media. (c Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus

  10. Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volkova, Svitlana; Ayton, Ellyn; Porterfield, Katherine; Corley, Courtney D

    2017-01-01

    This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like illness (ILI) dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data and the state-of-the-art machine learning models, we build and evaluate the predictive power of neural network architectures based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs) units capable of nowcasting (predicting in "real-time") and forecasting (predicting the future) ILI dynamics in the 2011 - 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, embeddings, word ngrams, stylistic patterns, and communication behavior using hashtags and mentions. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks using a diverse set of evaluation metrics. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build a joint neural network model for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance, specifically for military rather than general populations in 26 U.S. and six international locations., and analyze how model performance depends on the amount of social media data available per location. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a) Neural network architectures that rely on LSTM units trained on social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b) Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than stylistic and topic signals expressed in social media. (c) Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus, signals from

  11. Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descombes, Patrice; Wisz, Mary S; Leprieur, Fabien; Parravicini, Valerianio; Heine, Christian; Olsen, Steffen M; Swingedouw, Didier; Kulbicki, Michel; Mouillot, David; Pellissier, Loïc

    2015-01-21

    Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Bing; Liang, Xiao-Jie; Zhang, Hao; Wang, Lu; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyzes the long-term relationships between hydropower generation and climate factors (precipitation), hydropower generation capacity (installed capacity of hydropower station) to quantify the vulnerability of renewable energy production in China for the case of hydropower generation. Furthermore, this study applies Grey forecasting model to forecast precipitation in different provinces, and then sets up different scenarios for precipitation based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios and results from PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate projections for Impacts Studies) model. The most important result found in this research is the increasing hydropower vulnerability of the poorest regions and the main hydropower generation provinces of China to climate change. Other main empirical results reveal that the impacts of climate change on the supply of hydropower generation in China will be noteworthy for the society. Different scenarios have different effects on hydropower generation, of which A2 scenario (pessimistic, high emission) has the largest. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of every province are distinctly different, of which the Southwest part has the higher vulnerability than the average level while the central part lower. - Highlights: • The hydropower vulnerability will be enlarged with the rapid increase of hydropower capacity. • Modeling the vulnerability of hydropower in different scenarios and different provinces. • The increasing hydropower vulnerability of the poorest regions to climate change. • The increasing hydropower vulnerability of the main hydropower generation provinces. • Rainfall pattern caused by climate change would be the reason for the increasing vulnerability

  13. Changing Arctic Ecosystems: Updated forecast: Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions required to improve polar bear outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakley, Karen L.; Atwood, Todd C.; Mugel, Douglas N.; Rode, Karyn D.; Whalen, Mary E.

    2015-01-01

    The Arctic is warming faster than other regions of the world due to the loss of snow and ice, which increases the amount of solar energy absorbed by the region. The most visible consequence has been the rapid decline in sea ice over the last 3 decades-a decline projected to bring long ice-free summers if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are not significantly reduced. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice over the biologically productive continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean as a platform for hunting seals. In 2008, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) due to the threat posed by sea ice loss. The polar bear was the first species to be listed due to forecasted population declines from climate change.

  14. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

    2010-10-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

  15. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

    2010-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic

  16. Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Learning from the past and present to forecast the future

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wells, ML

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Learning from the past and present to forecast the future Mark L. Wellsa,*, Vera L. Trainerb, Theodore J. Smaydac, Bengt S.O. Karlsond, Charles G. Tricke, Raphael M. Kudelaf, Akira Ishikawag, Stewart Bernardh... and Atmospheric Administration, 2725 Montlake Blvd. E., Seattle, WA 98112, USA c Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI 02881, USA d SMHI Research & Development, Oceanography, Sven Ka¨llfelts gata 15, 426 71 Va¨stra Fro...

  17. Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting for the 3D Point Position Changing by Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni-Georgia Alevizakou

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting is one of the most growing areas in most sciences attracting the attention of many researchers for more extensive study. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop an integrated forecasting methodology based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN, which is a modern and attractive intelligent technique. The final result is to provide short-term and long-term forecasts for point position changing, i.e., the displacement or deformation of the surface they belong to. The motivation was the combination of two thoughts, the insertion of the forecasting concept in Geodesy as in the most scientific disciplines (e.g., Economics, Medicine and the desire to know the future position of any point on a construction or on the earth’s crustal. This methodology was designed to be accurate, stable and general for different kind of geodetic data. The basic procedure consists of the definition of the forecasting problem, the preliminary data analysis (data pre-processing, the definition of the most suitable ANN, its evaluation using the proper criteria and finally the production of forecasts. The methodology gives particular emphasis on the stages of the pre-processing and the evaluation. Additionally, the importance of the prediction intervals (PI is emphasized. A case study, which includes geodetic data from the year 2003 to the year 2016—namely X, Y, Z coordinates—is implemented. The data were acquired by 1000 permanent Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS stations. During this case study, 2016 ANNs—with different hyper-parameters—are trained and tested for short-term forecasting and 2016 for long-term forecasting, for each of the GNSS stations. In addition, other conventional statistical forecasting methods are used for the same purpose using the same data set. Finally the most appropriate Non-linear Autoregressive Recurrent network (NAR or Non-linear Autoregressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX for the forecasting of 3D point

  18. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  19. Change in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Accuracy with Age of Input Data from the Global Forecast System (GFS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    were downloaded from the University of Wyoming’s weather website (http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html). An alternative site is the RAOB...Midwest US Amarillo, TX AMA 2016-01-02-12 37.12, –98.66 Dodge City, KS DDC and Lamont, OK LMN 2016-02-10-12 Norman, OK OUN...0-, 24-, 48-, 72-, or 96-h forecast from the same day, 1, 2, 3, or 4 days earlier, respectively. For example, for a 12 Coordinated Universal Time

  20. Ageing populations and changing worlds of work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Brian

    2014-08-01

    Population ageing has reshaped the notion of retirement. The changes carry important implications for aspirations to extend working life. Cultural expectations regarding work and retirement must adapt to the reality posed by longer lives. The modern world is characterised by perpetual - and sometime rapid - change. Transformation throughout the second half of the 20th century brought about substantial shifts in the health and longevity of people in societies across the world. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the impacts of population ageing have gathered greater awareness in public consciousness and within the policy arena. Notions of old age, retirement, and later life have been fundamentally transformed, presenting stark challenges alongside novel opportunities for individuals, communities, and governments. Many of the topics of interest with respect to ageing populations are themselves the result of shifts that were unforeseen. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The political economy of a changing population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.

    1995-01-01

    In the context of an overlapping generations model with intragenerational inequality and majority voting, I study how the taxation of the old and retired generation is affected when the population growth rate changes. A fall in the birth rate leads to two opposite effects. On the one hand, the old

  2. Population growth, demographic change, and cultural landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodgate, G; Sage, C

    1994-01-01

    The inclusion of both ecological and socioeconomic components within landscapes makes possible the perception of the hierarchical character of landscape organization. A research approach is needed to conceptualize cultural landscapes as the product of interaction between society and nature. Richard Norgaard's 1984 paper on coevolutionary agricultural development attempts to meet this challenge. Coevolution is the interactive synthesis of natural and social mechanisms of change that characterize the relationship between social systems and ecosystems. The relationship between population, consumption, and environmental changes is complex. Currently industrialized countries present the biggest threat to global environmental resources. The issue of carrying capacity is the corollary of population and the environment. It is primarily the technological factor rather than population that needs to be controlled. The relationship between rich and poor countries is determined by superior economic power. An analysis of landscape change is made, tracing the coevolution of society and environment from the end of the feudal era and making comparisons with continental Europe. Over the years since 1945 the need to realize potential economies of scale has resulted in a wholesale loss of woodlands, hedgerows, and small ponds in the UK. In a global context the likely impacts of population growth and demographic change on landscapes will be influenced by such socioeconomic factors as technology and affluence; policies that ignore cause and effect; and the traditional tendency to treat the environment as a waste repository and a supply depot.

  3. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    A. Mahmud; M. Hixson; M. J. Kleeman

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for ...

  4. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    A. Mahmud; M. Hixson; M. J. Kleeman

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days ...

  5. An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D Gregory

    Full Text Available Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20(th and late 21(st centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.

  6. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

  7. Population persistence of stream fish in response to environmental change: integrating data and models across space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, B. H.; Schueller, P.; Bassar, R.; Coombs, J.; Rosner, A.; Sakrejda, K.; Kanno, Y.; Whiteley, A.; Nislow, K. H.

    2013-12-01

    For stream fishes, environmental variation is a key driver of individual body growth/movement/survival and, by extension, population dynamics. Identifying how stream fish respond to environmental variation can help clarify mechanisms responsible for population dynamics and can help provide tools to forecast relative resilience of populations across space. Forecasting dynamics across space is challenging, however, because it can be difficult to conduct enough studies with enough intensity to fully characterize broad-scale population response to environmental change. We have adopted a multi-scale approach, using detailed individual-based studies and analyses (integral projection matrix) to determine sensitivities of population growth to environmental variation combined with broad spatial data and analyses (occupancy and abundance models) to estimate patterns of population response across space. Population growth of brook trout was most sensitive to stream flow in the spring and winter, most sensitive to stream temperature in the fall and sensitive to both flow and temperature in the summer. High flow in the spring and winter had negative effects on population growth while high temperature had a negative effect in the fall. Flow had no effect when it was cold, but a positive effect when it was warm in the summer. Combined with occupancy and abundance models, these data give insight into the spatial structure of resilient populations and can help guide prioritization of management actions.

  8. Short-term streamflow forecasting with global climate change implications A comparative study between genetic programming and neural network models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makkeasorn, A.; Chang, N. B.; Zhou, X.

    2008-05-01

    SummarySustainable water resources management is a critically important priority across the globe. While water scarcity limits the uses of water in many ways, floods may also result in property damages and the loss of life. To more efficiently use the limited amount of water under the changing world or to resourcefully provide adequate time for flood warning, the issues have led us to seek advanced techniques for improving streamflow forecasting on a short-term basis. This study emphasizes the inclusion of sea surface temperature (SST) in addition to the spatio-temporal rainfall distribution via the Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD), meteorological data via local weather stations, and historical stream data via USGS gage stations to collectively forecast discharges in a semi-arid watershed in south Texas. Two types of artificial intelligence models, including genetic programming (GP) and neural network (NN) models, were employed comparatively. Four numerical evaluators were used to evaluate the validity of a suite of forecasting models. Research findings indicate that GP-derived streamflow forecasting models were generally favored in the assessment in which both SST and meteorological data significantly improve the accuracy of forecasting. Among several scenarios, NEXRAD rainfall data were proven its most effectiveness for a 3-day forecast, and SST Gulf-to-Atlantic index shows larger impacts than the SST Gulf-to-Pacific index on the streamflow forecasts. The most forward looking GP-derived models can even perform a 30-day streamflow forecast ahead of time with an r-square of 0.84 and RMS error 5.4 in our study.

  9. Effects of Forecasted Climate Change on Stream Temperatures in the Nooksack River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truitt, S. E.; Mitchell, R. J.; Yearsley, J. R.; Grah, O. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Nooksack River in northwest Washington State provides valuable habitat for endangered salmon species, as such it is critical to understand how stream temperatures will be affected by forecasted climate change. The Middle and North Forks basins of the Nooksack are high-relief and glaciated, whereas the South Fork is a lower relief rain and snow dominated basin. Due to a moderate Pacific maritime climate, snowpack in the basins is sensitive to temperature increases. Previous modeling studies in the upper Nooksack basins indicate a reduction in snowpack and spring runoff, and a recession of glaciers into the 21st century. How stream temperatures will respond to these changes is unknown. We use the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) coupled with a glacier dynamics model and the River Basin Model (RBM) to simulate hydrology and stream temperature from present to the year 2100. We calibrate the DHSVM and RBM to the three forks in the upper 1550 km2 of the Nooksack basin, which contain an estimated 3400 hectares of glacial ice. We employ observed stream-temperature data collected over the past decade and hydrologic data from the four USGS streamflow monitoring sites within the basin and observed gridded climate data developed by Linveh et al. (2013). Field work was conducted in the summer of 2016 to determine stream morphology, discharge, and stream temperatures at a number of stream segments for the RBM calibration. We simulate forecast climate change impacts, using gridded daily downscaled data from global climate models of the CMIP5 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios developed using the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs method (MACA; Abatzoglou and Brown, 2011). Simulation results project a trending increase in stream temperature as a result of lower snowmelt and higher air temperatures into the 21st century, especially in the lower relief, unglaciated South Fork basin.

  10. Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubasch, U.; Santer, B.D.; Hegerl, G.; Hoeck, H.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajwicz, U.; Stoessel, A.; Voss, R.

    1992-01-01

    The Monte Carlo approach, which has increasingly been used during the last decade in the field of extended range weather forecasting, has been applied for climate change experiments. Four integrations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been started from different initial conditions, but with the same greenhouse gas forcing according to the IPCC scenario A. All experiments have been run for a period of 50 years. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming depends strongly on the initial state of the climate system. It can vary between 6 and 31 years. The Monte Carlo approach delivers information about both the mean response and the statistical significance of the response. While the individual members of the ensemble show a considerable variation in the climate change pattern of temperature after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles the pattern obtained in a 100 year integration and is, at least over most of the land areas, statistically significant. The ensemble averaged sea-level change due to thermal expansion is significant in the global mean and locally over wide regions of the Pacific. The hydrological cycle is also significantly enhanced in the global mean, but locally the changes in precipitation and soil moisture are masked by the variability of the experiments. (orig.)

  11. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs. It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007. In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Methods Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. Results The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG

  12. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularisation procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, Haider R; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael

    2008-06-25

    Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995-99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference

  13. A look at Asia's changing youth population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xenos, P; Kabamalan, M; Westley, S B

    1999-01-01

    This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.

  14. Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

    2013-01-01

    To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

  15. Analysts' Forecast Accuracy in Germany: The Effect of Different Accounting Principles and Changes of Accounting Principles

    OpenAIRE

    Jürgen Ernstberger; Simon Krotter; Christian Stadler

    2008-01-01

    This paper assesses the influence of an adoption of IAS/IFRS or US GAAP on the financial analysts’ forecast accuracy in a homogenous institutional framework. Our findings suggest that the forecast accuracy is higher for estimates based on IFRS or US GAAP data than for forecasts based on German GAAP data. Moreover, in the year of switching from German GAAP to US GAAP the forecast accuracy is lower than in other years. The paper contributes to prior research by providing evidence about the usef...

  16. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchithra Naish

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  17. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  18. Changes in forecasting of HV/MV transformer loading due to distributed generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berende, M.J.C.; Ruiter, de A.; Morren, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes how Enexis, one of the largest distribution network operators in the Netherlands, has adapted its load forecasting method for HV/MV-transformers to incorporate the influence of distributed generation. This new method involves the making of separate forecasts for demand and

  19. Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maia, A.H.N.; Meinke, H.B.

    2010-01-01

    For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative

  20. The value of seasonal forecasting and crop mix adaptation to climate variability for agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, H. S.; Schneider, U.; Schmid, E.; Held, H.

    2012-04-01

    Changes to climate variability and frequency of extreme weather events are expected to impose damages to the agricultural sector. Seasonal forecasting and long range prediction skills have received attention as an option to adapt to climate change because seasonal climate and yield predictions could improve farmers' management decisions. The value of seasonal forecasting skill is assessed with a crop mix adaptation option in Spain where drought conditions are prevalent. Yield impacts of climate are simulated for six crops (wheat, barely, cotton, potato, corn and rice) with the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. Daily weather data over the period 1961 to 1990 are used and are generated by the regional climate model REMO as reference period for climate projection. Climate information and its consequent yield variability information are given to the stochastic agricultural sector model to calculate the value of climate information in the agricultural market. Expected consumers' market surplus and producers' revenue is compared with and without employing climate forecast information. We find that seasonal forecasting benefits not only consumers but also producers if the latter adopt a strategic crop mix. This mix differs from historical crop mixes by having higher shares of crops which fare relatively well under climate change. The corresponding value of information is highly sensitive to farmers' crop mix choices.

  1. Forecasting Brassica rapa: Merging climate models with genotype specific process models for evaluation whole species response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleban, J. R.; Mackay, D. S.; Ewers, B. E.; Weinig, C.; Guadagno, C. L.

    2016-12-01

    Human society has modified agriculture management practices and utilized a variety of breeding approaches to adapt to changing environments. Presently a dual pronged challenge has emerged as environmental change is occurring more rapidly while the demand of population growth on food supply is rising. Knowledge of how current agricultural practices will respond to these challenges can be informed through crafted prognostic modeling approaches. Amongst the uncertainties associated with forecasting agricultural production in a changing environment is evaluation of the responses across the existing genotypic diversity of crop species. Mechanistic models of plant productivity provide a means of genotype level parameterization allowing for a prognostic evaluation of varietal performance under changing climate. Brassica rapa represents an excellent species for this type of investigation because of its wide cultivation as well as large morphological and physiological diversity. We incorporated genotypic parameterization of B. rapa genotypes based on unique CO2 assimilation strategies, vulnerabilities to cavitation, and root to leaf area relationships into the TREES model. Three climate drivers, following the "business-as-usual" greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) were considered: temperature (T) along with associated changes in vapor pressure deficit (VPD), increasing CO2, as well as alternatives in irrigation regime across a temporal scale of present day to 2100. Genotypic responses to these drivers were evaluated using net primary productivity (NPP) and percent loss hydraulic conductance (PLC) as a measure of tolerance for a particular watering regime. Genotypic responses to T were witnessed as water demand driven by increases in VPD at 2050 and 2100 drove some genotypes to greater PLC and in a subset of these saw periodic decreases in NPP during a growing season. Genotypes able to withstand the greater

  2. Forecasting tidal marsh elevation and habitat change through fusion of Earth observations and a process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Windham-Myers, Lisamarie; Leeuw, Thomas; Downing, Bryan D.; Morris, James T.; Ferner, Matthew C.

    2016-01-01

    Reducing uncertainty in data inputs at relevant spatial scales can improve tidal marsh forecasting models, and their usefulness in coastal climate change adaptation decisions. The Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM), a one-dimensional mechanistic elevation model, incorporates feedbacks of organic and inorganic inputs to project elevations under sea-level rise scenarios. We tested the feasibility of deriving two key MEM inputs—average annual suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and aboveground peak biomass—from remote sensing data in order to apply MEM across a broader geographic region. We analyzed the precision and representativeness (spatial distribution) of these remote sensing inputs to improve understanding of our study region, a brackish tidal marsh in San Francisco Bay, and to test the applicable spatial extent for coastal modeling. We compared biomass and SSC models derived from Landsat 8, DigitalGlobe WorldView-2, and hyperspectral airborne imagery. Landsat 8-derived inputs were evaluated in a MEM sensitivity analysis. Biomass models were comparable although peak biomass from Landsat 8 best matched field-measured values. The Portable Remote Imaging Spectrometer SSC model was most accurate, although a Landsat 8 time series provided annual average SSC estimates. Landsat 8-measured peak biomass values were randomly distributed, and annual average SSC (30 mg/L) was well represented in the main channels (IQR: 29–32 mg/L), illustrating the suitability of these inputs across the model domain. Trend response surface analysis identified significant diversion between field and remote sensing-based model runs at 60 yr due to model sensitivity at the marsh edge (80–140 cm NAVD88), although at 100 yr, elevation forecasts differed less than 10 cm across 97% of the marsh surface (150–200 cm NAVD88). Results demonstrate the utility of Landsat 8 for landscape-scale tidal marsh elevation projections due to its comparable performance with the other sensors

  3. State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Fortin, Marie-Josée

    2016-01-01

    SummaryA wide range of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to forecast landscape dynamics, including models for projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. While these models have generally been developed as separate applications, each with a separate purpose and audience, they share many common features.We present a general framework, called a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM), which captures a number of these common features, accompanied by a software product, called ST-Sim, to build and run such models. The STSM method divides a landscape into a set of discrete spatial units and simulates the discrete state of each cell forward as a discrete-time-inhomogeneous stochastic process. The method differs from a spatially interacting Markov chain in several important ways, including the ability to add discrete counters such as age and time-since-transition as state variables, to specify one-step transition rates as either probabilities or target areas, and to represent multiple types of transitions between pairs of states.We demonstrate the STSM method using a model of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. Processes represented in this example include expansion/contraction of agricultural lands, urbanization, wildfire, shrub encroachment into grassland and harvest of tree plantations; the model also projects shifts in moisture zones due to climate change. Key model output includes projections of the future spatial and temporal distribution of LULC classes and moisture zones across the landscape over the next 50 years.State-and-transition simulation models can be applied to a wide range of landscapes, including questions of both land-use change and vegetation dynamics. Because the method is inherently stochastic, it is well suited for characterizing uncertainty in model projections. When combined with the ST-Sim software, STSMs offer a simple yet powerful means for developing a wide range of models of

  4. Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Learning from the past and present to forecast the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Mark L.; Trainer, Vera L.; Smayda, Theodore J.; Karlson, Bengt S.O.; Trick, Charles G.; Kudela, Raphael M.; Ishikawa, Akira; Bernard, Stewart; Wulff, Angela; Anderson, Donald M.; Cochlan, William P.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change pressures will influence marine planktonic systems globally, and it is conceivable that harmful algal blooms may increase in frequency and severity. These pressures will be manifest as alterations in temperature, stratification, light, ocean acidification, precipitation-induced nutrient inputs, and grazing, but absence of fundamental knowledge of the mechanisms driving harmful algal blooms frustrates most hope of forecasting their future prevalence. Summarized here is the consensus of a recent workshop held to address what currently is known and not known about the environmental conditions that favor initiation and maintenance of harmful algal blooms. There is expectation that harmful algal bloom (HAB) geographical domains should expand in some cases, as will seasonal windows of opportunity for harmful algal blooms at higher latitudes. Nonetheless there is only basic information to speculate upon which regions or habitats HAB species may be the most resilient or susceptible. Moreover, current research strategies are not well suited to inform these fundamental linkages. There is a critical absence of tenable hypotheses for how climate pressures mechanistically affect HAB species, and the lack of uniform experimental protocols limits the quantitative cross-investigation comparisons essential to advancement. A HAB “best practices” manual would help foster more uniform research strategies and protocols, and selection of a small target list of model HAB species or isolates for study would greatly promote the accumulation of knowledge. Despite the need to focus on keystone species, more studies need to address strain variability within species, their responses under multifactorial conditions, and the retrospective analyses of long-term plankton and cyst core data; research topics that are departures from the norm. Examples of some fundamental unknowns include how larger and more frequent extreme weather events may break down natural biogeographic

  5. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  6. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  7. SIGNIFICANCE OF СD4+ Т-LYMPHOCYTE POPULATIONS MONITORING FOR DIAGNOSING AND FORECASTING OF ORGANISM REACTION ON TRANSPLANT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Onishchenko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this review article the necessity of adaptation and introduction into clinical practice of simultaneous monitoring of immune blood cells and cytokines in patients with grafted organs for a choice of individual tactic of immuno- suppressive therapy, determination of its efficiency and forecasting is proved. It is emphasized, that with the spe- cial attention it ought to concern to characteristic of CD4 + T-lymphocytes and to definition of an interrelation of their separate populations in peripheral blood (Treg, Th17, Tact memory cells – CD4+CD25hiCD127hiCD45RO since they are the basic participants of immune system reaction on grafts. 

  8. Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B Monahan

    Full Text Available Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA. Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2 show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change

  9. Uncertainties in forecasting the response of polar bears to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, David C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Butterworth, Andy

    2017-01-01

    Several sources of uncertainty affect how precisely the future status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) can be forecasted. Foremost are unknowns about the future levels of global greenhouse gas emissions, which could range from an unabated increase to an aggressively mitigated reduction. Uncertainties also arise because different climate models project different amounts and rates of future warming (and sea ice loss)—even for the same emission scenario. There are also uncertainties about how global warming could affect the Arctic Ocean’s food web, so even if climate models project the presence of sea ice in the future, the availability of polar bear prey is not guaranteed. Under a worst-case emission scenario in which rates of greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unabated to century’s end, the uncertainties about polar bear status center on a potential for extinction. If the species were to persist, it would likely be restricted to a high-latitude refugium in northern Canada and Greenland—assuming a food web also existed with enough accessible prey to fuel weight gains for surviving onshore during the most extreme years of summer ice melt. On the other hand, if emissions were to be aggressively mitigated at the levels proposed in the Paris Climate Agreement, healthy polar bear populations would probably continue to occupy all but the most southern areas of their contemporary summer range. While polar bears have survived previous warming phases—which indicate some resiliency to the loss of sea ice habitat—what is certain is that the present pace of warming is unprecedented and will increasingly expose polar bears to historically novel stressors.

  10. Forecasting of future changes of state with the aid of Markov chains; Prognose zukuenftiger Zustandsaenderungen mit Markow-Ketten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaflowski, Grzegorz; Kizilcay, Mustafa [Siegen Univ. (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Elektrische Energieversorgung

    2010-02-15

    In long-term planning of modernization measures in electric power supplies, forecasting of the future behaviour of the equipment is of great importance for its optimum utilization. Based on limited historical information on the technical condition of a collective of equipment, its future changes of condition can be modelled using Markov chains, which may support an assessment of the time of modernization or replacement. (orig.)

  11. Forecasting the changes in engineering-geological properties of loess rocks by a penetration-logging method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saparov, A.

    1977-01-01

    Changes of volume weight, volume numidity, side friction and head resistance of loess rocks are considered. It is established, that the most perspective methods for forecasting engineering-geological properties of loess rocks are the methods of radioactivity logging and static probing. The quantitative determinations of physical and mechanical properties are made using the data of the following geophysical methods: gamma-gamma logging, neutron logging and gamma logging

  12. Inductive reasoning and forecasting of population dynamics of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in three sub-tropical reservoirs by evolutionary computation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recknagel, Friedrich; Orr, Philip T; Cao, Hongqing

    2014-01-01

    Seven-day-ahead forecasting models of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in three warm-monomictic and mesotrophic reservoirs in south-east Queensland have been developed by means of water quality data from 1999 to 2010 and the hybrid evolutionary algorithm HEA. Resulting models using all measured variables as inputs as well as models using electronically measurable variables only as inputs forecasted accurately timing of overgrowth of C. raciborskii and matched well high and low magnitudes of observed bloom events with 0.45≤r 2 >0.61 and 0.4≤r 2 >0.57, respectively. The models also revealed relationships and thresholds triggering bloom events that provide valuable information on synergism between water quality conditions and population dynamics of C. raciborskii. Best performing models based on using all measured variables as inputs indicated electrical conductivity (EC) within the range of 206-280mSm -1 as threshold above which fast growth and high abundances of C. raciborskii have been observed for the three lakes. Best models based on electronically measurable variables for the Lakes Wivenhoe and Somerset indicated a water temperature (WT) range of 25.5-32.7°C within which fast growth and high abundances of C. raciborskii can be expected. By contrast the model for Lake Samsonvale highlighted a turbidity (TURB) level of 4.8 NTU as indicator for mass developments of C. raciborskii. Experiments with online measured water quality data of the Lake Wivenhoe from 2007 to 2010 resulted in predictive models with 0.61≤r 2 >0.65 whereby again similar levels of EC and WT have been discovered as thresholds for outgrowth of C. raciborskii. The highest validity of r 2 =0.75 for an in situ data-based model has been achieved after considering time lags for EC by 7 days and dissolved oxygen by 1 day. These time lags have been discovered by a systematic screening of all possible combinations of time lags between 0 and 10 days for all electronically measurable variables. The so

  13. Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobslaw, Henryk; Dill, Robert

    2018-02-01

    Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions obtained from global numerical simulations of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface dynamics are routinely processed by the Earth System Modelling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum. EAM functions are available since January 1976 with up to 3 h temporal resolution. Additionally, 6 days-long EAM forecasts are routinely published every day. Based on hindcast experiments with 305 individual predictions distributed over 15 months, we demonstrate that EAM forecasts improve the prediction accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters at all forecast horizons between 1 and 6 days. At day 6, prediction accuracy improves down to 1.76 mas for the terrestrial pole offset, and 2.6 mas for Δ UT1, which correspond to an accuracy increase of about 41% over predictions published in Bulletin A by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service.

  14. Forecasting inclusion of active population in programmes of non/formal education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasmina Mirčeva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the issue of inclusion of the active population in formal and non-formal education in Slovenia. It also examines factors that influence this participation in either positive or negative way and indicates statistical models of educational inclusion. The approach stems from the current state of development of economy and society in European countries, where the economic crisis and recession has led to a fall in GDP, lower economic growth, increase in unemployment (especially in young population and a decline in the quality of life and labour.

  15. Forecasting long memory series subject to structural change: A two-stage approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Papailias, Fotis; Dias, Gustavo Fruet

    2015-01-01

    A two-stage forecasting approach for long memory time series is introduced. In the first step, we estimate the fractional exponent and, by applying the fractional differencing operator, obtain the underlying weakly dependent series. In the second step, we produce multi-step-ahead forecasts...... for the weakly dependent series and obtain their long memory counterparts by applying the fractional cumulation operator. The methodology applies to both stationary and nonstationary cases. Simulations and an application to seven time series provide evidence that the new methodology is more robust to structural...

  16. An approach to consider behavioral plasticity as a source of uncertainty when forecasting species' response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

    2015-06-01

    The rapid ecological shifts that are occurring due to climate change present major challenges for managers and policymakers and, therefore, are one of the main concerns for environmental modelers and evolutionary biologists. Species distribution models (SDM) are appropriate tools for assessing the relationship between species distribution and environmental conditions, so being customarily used to forecast the biogeographical response of species to climate change. A serious limitation of species distribution models when forecasting the effects of climate change is that they normally assume that species behavior and climatic tolerances will remain constant through time. In this study, we propose a new methodology, based on fuzzy logic, useful for incorporating the potential capacity of species to adapt to new conditions into species distribution models. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to include different behavioral responses of species when predicting the effects of climate change on species distribution. Favorability models offered in this study show two extremes: one considering that the species will not modify its present behavior, and another assuming that the species will take full advantage of the possibilities offered by an increase in environmental favorability. This methodology may mean a more realistic approach to the assessment of the consequences of global change on species' distribution and conservation. Overlooking the potential of species' phenotypical plasticity may under- or overestimate the predicted response of species to changes in environmental drivers and its effects on species distribution. Using this approach, we could reinforce the science behind conservation planning in the current situation of rapid climate change.

  17. Forecasting the Relative and Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on At-risk Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    applied to model populations of Ord’s kangaroo rat, Spotted Owls, and elk. Although the model was recently demonstrated to members of the DoD...C. C. Peterson, I. R. Wallis, K. H. Berry, and K. A. Nagy. 1998. Effects of climatic variation on field metabolism and water relations of desert...simulation experiment with endangered kangaroo rats. International Association for Landscape Ecology Annual Meeting, April 2009. A. 2 A. 3

  18. Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartolino, V.; Margonski, P.; Lindegren, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios...... of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct......-term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long-term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change...

  19. Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth J. Wenger; Nicholas A. Som; Daniel C. Dauwalter; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville; Charles H. Luce; Jason B. Dunham; Michael K. Young; Kurt D. Fausch; Bruce E. Rieman

    2013-01-01

    Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing...

  20. Population growth changes targets for immunization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuljapurkar, S; John, A M

    1995-01-01

    The faster the rate of population growth in developing countries, the less likely it is that current protocols for immunization against measles, rubella, and mumps will eradicate these childhood diseases. Standard protocols (timing, percentage of children to be immunized) do not take into account the rapid rates of population growth in developing countries (3.0% per year on average in sub-Saharan Africa and 2.0% in the rest of Africa, in Latin America, and in Asia, excluding China). Most public health planning models in this area were created based on static infant populations. The World Health Organization advises vaccinating at least 85% of children aged 6 to 9 months, a 3-month immunization window during which maternal antibodies are low (so the vaccination takes) and herd immunity is high (the probability that a child will encounter the disease is low because most children have been immunized). In practice, the immunization window in developing countries is 1 year or more. More susceptible children are present than assumed by the models. A larger number of susceptible babies are added each year during rapid population growth. As the age range for immunization widens, a higher percentage of children must be vaccinated to eradicate disease (chart). The proportion of each birth cohort that must be immunized rises as the population growth rate increases. At zero population growth, 94% must be vaccinated; at population growth rates greater than 3%, 98% must be vaccinated.

  1. Population aging and migration - history and UN forecasts in the EU-28 and its east and south near neighborhood - one century perspective 1950-2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo Michael; Netz, Yael; Buttigieg, Sandra C; Adany, Roza; Laaser, Ulrich; Varjacic, Mirjana

    2018-03-16

    There is a gap in knowledge on long term pace of population aging acceleration and related net-migration rate changes in WHO European Region and its adjacent MENA countries. We decided to compare European Union (EU-28) region with the EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region East and EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region South in terms of these two essential features of third demographic transition. One century long perspective dating back to both historical data and towards reliable future forecasts was observed. United Nation's Department of Economic and Social Affairs estimates on indicators of population aging and migration were observed. Time horizon adopted was 1950-2050. Targeted 44 countries belong to either one of three regions named by EU diplomacy as: European Union or EU-28, EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region East (ENP East) and EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region South (ENP South). European Union region currently experiences most advanced stage of demographic aging. The latter one is the ENP East region dominated by Slavic nations whose fertility decline continues since the USSR Era back in late 1980s. ENP South region dominated by Arab League nations remains rather young compared to their northern counterparts. However, as the Third Demographic Transition is inevitably coming to these societies they remain the spring of youth and positive net emigration rate. Probably the most prominent change will be the extreme fall of total fertility rate (children per woman) in ENP South countries (dominantly Arab League) from 6.72 back in 1950 to medium-scenario forecasted 2.10 in 2050. In the same time net number of migrants in the EU28 (both sexes combined) will grow from - 91,000 in 1950 to + 394,000 in 2050. Long term migration from Eastern Europe westwards and from MENA region northwards is historically present for many decades dating back deep into the Cold War Era. Contemporary large-scale migrations outsourcing from Arab League nations towards rich European

  2. Influence of characteristics of time series on short-term forecasting error parameter changes in real time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klevtsov, S. I.

    2018-05-01

    The impact of physical factors, such as temperature and others, leads to a change in the parameters of the technical object. Monitoring the change of parameters is necessary to prevent a dangerous situation. The control is carried out in real time. To predict the change in the parameter, a time series is used in this paper. Forecasting allows one to determine the possibility of a dangerous change in a parameter before the moment when this change occurs. The control system in this case has more time to prevent a dangerous situation. A simple time series was chosen. In this case, the algorithm is simple. The algorithm is executed in the microprocessor module in the background. The efficiency of using the time series is affected by its characteristics, which must be adjusted. In the work, the influence of these characteristics on the error of prediction of the controlled parameter was studied. This takes into account the behavior of the parameter. The values of the forecast lag are determined. The results of the research, in the case of their use, will improve the efficiency of monitoring the technical object during its operation.

  3. MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.; Kerley, C.R.; Bjornstad, D.J.; Vogt, D.P.; Bray, L.G.; Grady, S.T.; Nakosteen, R.A.

    1977-10-01

    This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report has been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.

  4. Forecasting the distribution of precipitate diameters in the presence of changes in the structure of the material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zieliński A.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The results of investigations on the microstructure of T23 and T24 low-alloy steels as well as P91 and P92 high-chromium steels in the as-received condition and after 70.000 h annealing at 550-650°C are presented. The quantitative analysis of the existing precipitates was performed for representative images of microstructure. The statistical analysis of collected data allowed the parameters of a selected theoretical statistical distribution to be estimated. A forecast of average precipitate diameter and standard deviation of such a distribution for the time of 100,000 hours at 550 and 600°C for T23 and T24 steels and at 600 and 650°C for P91 and P92 steels was calculated. The obtained results of investigations have made it possible to compare changes in the microstructure of various steel grades due to long-term impact of elevated temperature. They have also confirmed the possibility of using, in evaluating the degradation degree of materials in use, the forecasting methods that derive from mathematical statistics, in particular the theory of stochastic processes and forecast by analogy methods. The presented approach allows the development of a forecast of precipitate diameter probability density under the microstructure instability conditions for selected steel grades. The assessment of material condition that takes into consideration, but is not limited to, the precipitate diameter measurement is useful as an assessment component in estimating the time of safe service of power unit elements working under creep conditions.

  5. Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth...

  6. Modeling the fish community population dynamics and forecasting the eradication success of an exotic fish from an alpine stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laplanche, Christophe; Elger, Arnaud; Santoul, Frédéric; Thiede, Gary P.; Budy, Phaedra

    2018-01-01

    Management actions aimed at eradicating exotic fish species from riverine ecosystems can be better informed by forecasting abilities of mechanistic models. We illustrate this point with an example of the Logan River, Utah, originally populated with endemic cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii utah), which compete with exotic brown trout (Salmo trutta). The coexistence equilibrium was disrupted by a large scale, experimental removal of the exotic species in 2009–2011 (on average, 8.2% of the stock each year), followed by an increase in the density of the native species. We built a spatially-explicit, reaction-diffusion model encompassing four key processes: population growth in heterogeneous habitat, competition, dispersal, and a management action. We calibrated the model with detailed long-term monitoring data (2001–2016) collected along the 35.4-km long river main channel. Our model, although simple, did a remarkable job reproducing the system steady state prior to the management action. Insights gained from the model independent predictions are consistent with available knowledge and indicate that the exotic species is more competitive; however, the native species still occupies more favorable habitat upstream. Dynamic runs of the model also recreated the observed increase of the native species following the management action. The model can simulate two possible distinct long-term outcomes: recovery or eradication of the exotic species. The processing of available knowledge using Bayesian methods allowed us to conclude that the chance for eradication of the invader was low at the beginning of the experimental removal (0.7% in 2009) and increased (20.5% in 2016) by using more recent monitoring data. We show that accessible mathematical and numerical tools can provide highly informative insights for managers (e.g., outcome of their conservation actions), identify knowledge gaps, and provide testable theory for researchers.

  7. Microbial population changes in tropical agricultural soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impacts of crude petroleum pollution on the soil environment and microbial population dynamics as well as recovery rates of an abandoned farmland was monitored for seven months spanning the two major seasons in Nigeria with a ... The physico-chemistry of the control and contaminated soils differed just significantly (P ...

  8. Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Kären C.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Pizzuto, James E.; Moglen, Glenn E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hilderbrand, Robert H.; Dettinger, Mike; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2015-01-01

    Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades.

  9. Population change in the former Soviet Republics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haub, C

    1994-12-01

    Demographic trends in the former Soviet Republics and Russia are summarized and discussed in this publication. The former Soviet Republics in Europe as well as Georgia and Armenia had completed or almost completed their demographic transition before October 1991. Other Central Asian republics experienced reduced mortality, but, despite rapid declines, fertility is still above replacement level (at 3-4 children per woman). The economic and social dislocation of the breakup of the republics has hastened fertility decline. The annual population growth rate of the USSR in the mid-1980s was 0.9%; this rate declined to 0.4% in 1991, and the decline has continued. The 1991 population of the USSR was 289.1 million. Between 1989 and 1991, the crude birth rate was 18/1000 population, and the crude death rate was 10/1000. The net migration rate of -4/1000 helped to reduce growth. Total fertility in the USSR was 2.3 children in 1990. In Russia, fertility declined from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. The preferred family size in Russia was 1.9 in 1990 and 1.5 in 1993. This decline occurred due to lack of confidence in the economy and insufficient income. Only 19% of women used contraception in 1990. Marriages declined after 1990. Age pyramids were similar in the republics in that there was a narrowing in the proportion aged 45-49 years, and the male population aged over 65 years was diminished, due to the effect of World War II. The cohort of those aged 20-24 years in 1992 was very small due to the small parental birth cohort. The differences in the republics was characterized as broad-based in the younger ages because of high fertility. The number of childbearing women will remain large. Life expectancy has been 70 years since the 1950s and has declined in some republics due to substandard health care, lack of job safety measures, and alcoholism. Some republics experienced increased life expectancy, but, after 1991, mortality increased. Tajikistan had the highest infant mortality

  10. Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie S. Gervasi

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

  11. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  12. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  13. [Migration and changes in the Jewish population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svob, M

    1995-12-01

    "This paper presents an overview of the distribution, number and position of Jewish communities in the world, in the light of historical and political conditions which formerly [influenced], and even today continue to influence Jewish migration. The Jewish community in Croatia and Zagreb is analysed. Nevertheless, attention is focused primarily on East Europe and Israel as areas of large changes." (EXCERPT)

  14. Weather forecasting by insects: modified sexual behaviour in response to atmospheric pressure changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellegrino, Ana Cristina; Peñaflor, Maria Fernanda Gomes Villalba; Nardi, Cristiane; Bezner-Kerr, Wayne; Guglielmo, Christopher G; Bento, José Maurício Simões; McNeil, Jeremy N

    2013-01-01

    Prevailing abiotic conditions may positively or negatively impact insects at both the individual and population levels. For example while moderate rainfall and wind velocity may provide conditions that favour development, as well as movement within and between habitats, high winds and heavy rains can significantly decrease life expectancy. There is some evidence that insects adjust their behaviours associated with flight, mating and foraging in response to changes in barometric pressure. We studied changes in different mating behaviours of three taxonomically unrelated insects, the curcurbit beetle, Diabrotica speciosa (Coleoptera), the true armyworm moth, Pseudaletia unipuncta (Lepidoptera) and the potato aphid, Macrosiphum euphorbiae (Hemiptera), when subjected to natural or experimentally manipulated changes in atmospheric pressure. In response to decreasing barometric pressure, male beetles exhibited decreased locomotory activity in a Y-tube olfactometer with female pheromone extracts. However, when placed in close proximity to females, they exhibited reduced courtship sequences and the precopulatory period. Under the same situations, females of the true armyworm and the potato aphid exhibited significantly reduced calling behaviour. Neither the movement of male beetles nor the calling of armyworm females differed between stable and increasing atmospheric pressure conditions. However, in the case of the armyworm there was a significant decrease in the incidence of mating under rising atmospheric conditions, suggesting an effect on male behaviour. When atmospheric pressure rose, very few M. euphorbiae oviparae called. This was similar to the situation observed under decreasing conditions, and consequently very little mating was observed in this species except under stable conditions. All species exhibited behavioural modifications, but there were interspecific differences related to size-related flight ability and the diel periodicity of mating activity. We

  15. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  16. Infrastructure Improvements for Snowmelt Runoff Forecasting and Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on Water Supplies in the Rio Grande Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rango, A.; Steele, C. M.; Demouche, L.

    2009-12-01

    In the Southwest US, the southern Rocky Mountains provide a significant orographic barrier to prevailing moisture-laden Westerly winds, which results in snow accumulation and melt, both vitally important to the region’s water resources. The inherent variability of meteorological conditions in the Southwest, during both snowpack buildup and depletion, requires improved spatially-distributed data. The population of ground-based networks (SNOTEL, SCAN, and weather stations) is sparse and does not satisfactorily represent the variability of snow accumulation and melt. Remote sensing can be used to supplement data from ground networks, but the most frequently available remotely sensed product with the highest temporal and spatial resolution, namely snow cover, only provides areal data and not snow volume. Fortunately, the Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM), which was developed in mountainous regions of the world, including the Rio Grande basin, accepts snow covered area as one of its major input variables along with temperature and precipitation. With the growing awareness of atmospheric warming and the southerly location of Southwest watersheds, it has become apparent that the effects of climate change will be especially important for Southwestern water users. The NSF-funded EPSCoR project “Climate Change Impacts on New Mexico’s Mountain Sources of Water” (started in 2009) has focused on improving hydrometeorological measurements, developing basin-wide and sub-basin snow cover mapping methods, generating snowmelt runoff simulations, forecasts, and long-term climate change assessments, and informing the public of the results through outreach and educational activities. Five new SNOTEL and four new SCAN sites are being installed in 2009-2010 and 12 existing basic SNOTEL sites are being upgraded. In addition, 30 automated precipitation gages are being added to New Mexico measurement networks. The first phase of snow mapping and modeling has focused on four sub basins

  17. Coping with Changes in International Classifications of Sectors and Occupations: Application in Skills Forecasting. Research Paper No 43

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvetan, Vladimir, Ed.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and consistent time series are essential to any kind of economic forecasting. Skills forecasting needs to combine data from national accounts and labour force surveys, with the pan-European dimension of Cedefop's skills supply and demand forecasts, relying on different international classification standards. Sectoral classification (NACE)…

  18. Paradigm change in ocean studies: multi-platform observing and forecasting integrated approach in response to science and society needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tintoré, Joaquín

    2017-04-01

    The last 20 years of ocean research have allowed a description of the state of the large-scale ocean circulation. However, it is also well known that there is no such thing as an ocean state and that the ocean varies a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. More recently, in the last 10 years, new monitoring and modelling technologies have emerged allowing quasi real time observation and forecasting of the ocean at regional and local scales. Theses new technologies are key components of recent observing & forecasting systems being progressively implemented in many regional seas and coastal areas of the world oceans. As a result, new capabilities to characterise the ocean state and more important, its variability at small spatial and temporal scales, exists today in many cases in quasi-real time. Examples of relevance for society can be cited, among others our capabilities to detect and understand long-term climatic changes and also our capabilities to better constrain our forecasting capabilities of the coastal ocean circulation at temporal scales from sub-seasonal to inter-annual and spatial from regional to meso and submesoscale. The Mediterranean Sea is a well-known laboratory ocean where meso and submesoscale features can be ideally observed and studied as shown by the key contributions from projects such as Perseus, CMEMS, Jericonext, among others. The challenge for the next 10 years is the integration of theses technologies and multiplatform observing and forecasting systems to (a) monitor the variability at small scales mesoscale/weeks) in order (b) to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability and by this (c) establish the decadal variability, understand the associated biases and correct them. In other words, the new observing systems now allow a major change in our focus of ocean observation, now from small to large scales. Recent studies from SOCIB -www.socib.es- have shown the importance of this new small to large-scale multi

  19. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  20. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

    2013-10-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Forecasting summertime surface temperature and precipitation in the Mexico City metropolitan area: sensitivity of the WRF model to land cover changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Bravo, Clemente; Caetano, Ernesto; Magaña, Víctor

    2018-02-01

    Changes in the frequency and intensity of severe hydrometeorological events in recent decades in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area have motivated the development of weather warning systems. The weather forecasting system for this region was evaluated in sensitivity studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for July 2014, a summer time month. It was found that changes in the extent of the urban area and associated changes in thermodynamic and dynamic variables have induced local circulations that affect the diurnal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and wind fields. A newly implemented configuration (land cover update and Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA)) of the WRF model has improved the adjustment of the precipitation field to the orography. However, errors related to the depiction of convection due to parameterizations and microphysics remains a source of uncertainty in weather forecasting in this region.

  2. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

    2001-01-01

    Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

  3. Climate change, food, water and population health in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Shilu; Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D

    2016-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.

  4. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  5. Is Information Enough? User Responses to Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Southern Africa. Report to the World Bank, AFTE1-ENVGC. Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Sub{sub S}aharan Africa, Phase II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Brien, Karen; Sygna, Linda; Naess, Lars Otto; Kingamkono, Robert; Hochobeb, Ben

    2000-05-01

    Since the mid-1980s, long-lead climate forecasts have been developed and used to predict the onset of El Nino events and their impact on climate variability. This report discusses user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa, with an emphasis on small-scale farmers in Namibia and Tanzania. The study examines how farmers received and used the forecasts in the agricultural season of 1997/1998. It also summarises a workshop on user responses to seasonal forecasts in southern Africa. Comparison of case studies across south Africa revealed differences in forecast dissemination strategies and in the capacity to respond to extreme events. However, improving these strategies and the capacity to respond to the forecasts would yield net profit to agriculture in southern Africa. In anticipation of potential changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme events associated with global climate change, there clearly is a need for improved seasonal forecasts and improved information dissemination.

  6. Development of a model forecasting Dermanyssus gallinae's population dynamics for advancing Integrated Pest Management in laying hen facilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mul, Monique F.; Riel, van Johannes; Roy, Lise; Zoons, Johan; Andre, Geert; George, David R.; Meerburg, Bastiaan G.; Dicke, Marcel; Mourik, van Simon; Groot Koerkamp, Peter W.G.

    2017-01-01

    The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting

  7. The nexus of population change, agricultural expansion, landscape ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    -series landcover mapping for the years 1975, 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2007 with socio-economic variables such as data on agricultural productivity and population parameters to explain the phenomenon of change in the Volta gorge area.

  8. APPLYING THIESSEN POLYGON CATCHMENT AREAS AND GRIDDED POPULATION WEIGHTS TO ESTIMATE CONFLICT-DRIVEN POPULATION CHANGES IN SOUTH SUDAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jordan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent violence in South Sudan produced significant levels of conflict-driven migration undermining the accuracy and utility of both national and local level population forecasts commonly used in demographic estimates, public health metrics and food security proxies. This article explores the use of Thiessen Polygons and population grids (Gridded Population of the World, WorldPop and LandScan as weights for estimating the catchment areas for settlement locations that serve large populations of internally displaced persons (IDP, in order to estimate the county-level in- and out-migration attributable to conflict-driven displacement between 2014-2015. Acknowledging IDP totals improves internal population estimates presented by global population databases. Unlike other forecasts, which produce spatially uniform increases in population, accounting for displaced population reveals that 15 percent of counties (n = 12 increased in population over 20 percent, and 30 percent of counties (n = 24 experienced zero or declining population growth, due to internal displacement and refugee out-migration. Adopting Thiessen Polygon catchment zones for internal migration estimation can be applied to other areas with United Nations IDP settlement data, such as Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria.

  9. Applying Thiessen Polygon Catchment Areas and Gridded Population Weights to Estimate Conflict-Driven Population Changes in South Sudan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, L.

    2017-10-01

    Recent violence in South Sudan produced significant levels of conflict-driven migration undermining the accuracy and utility of both national and local level population forecasts commonly used in demographic estimates, public health metrics and food security proxies. This article explores the use of Thiessen Polygons and population grids (Gridded Population of the World, WorldPop and LandScan) as weights for estimating the catchment areas for settlement locations that serve large populations of internally displaced persons (IDP), in order to estimate the county-level in- and out-migration attributable to conflict-driven displacement between 2014-2015. Acknowledging IDP totals improves internal population estimates presented by global population databases. Unlike other forecasts, which produce spatially uniform increases in population, accounting for displaced population reveals that 15 percent of counties (n = 12) increased in population over 20 percent, and 30 percent of counties (n = 24) experienced zero or declining population growth, due to internal displacement and refugee out-migration. Adopting Thiessen Polygon catchment zones for internal migration estimation can be applied to other areas with United Nations IDP settlement data, such as Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria.

  10. Framework for projecting employment and population changes accompanying energy development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenehjem, E.J.; Metzger, J.E.

    1980-05-01

    This report provides a framework which energy planners can use to readily estimate the size and timing of the population and employment changes associated with energy development. The direct employment requirements for eight different technologies are listed. This direct employment requirement can be combined with the set of employment multipliers and other information provided to obtain practical estimates of the employment and population impacts of new energy development. Some explanation is given for the variation of the multipliers among counties in the same region. A description is presented of a demographic model for deriving the annual population changes that can be expected as a result of in-migrating workers and their families. Several hypothetical examples of the procedure for making the calculations are discussed as practical exercises in using the multipliers. The necessary data are provided for obtaining estimates of population and employment changes in any county in the US.

  11. Vegetation changes associated with a population irruption by Roosevelt elk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starns, H D; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Ricca, Mark; Duarte, Adam

    2015-01-01

    Interactions between large herbivores and their food supply are central to the study of population dynamics. We assessed temporal and spatial patterns in meadow plant biomass over a 23-year period for meadow complexes that were spatially linked to three distinct populations of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) in northwestern California. Our objectives were to determine whether the plant community exhibited a tolerant or resistant response when elk population growth became irruptive. Plant biomass for the three meadow complexes inhabited by the elk populations was measured using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which was derived from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper imagery. Elk populations exhibited different patterns of growth through the time series, whereby one population underwent a complete four-stage irruptive growth pattern while the other two did not. Temporal changes in NDVI for the meadow complex used by the irruptive population suggested a decline in forage biomass during the end of the dry season and a temporal decline in spatial variation of NDVI at the peak of plant biomass in May. Conversely, no such patterns were detected in the meadow complexes inhabited by the nonirruptive populations. Our findings suggest that the meadow complex used by the irruptive elk population may have undergone changes in plant community composition favoring plants that were resistant to elk grazing.

  12. Effect of Population Structure Change on Carbon Emission in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Guo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper expanded the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI model through the introduction of urbanization, residents’ consumption, and other factors, and decomposed carbon emission changes in China into carbon emission factor effect, energy intensity effect, consumption inhibitory factor effect, urbanization effect, residents’ consumption effect, and population scale effect, and then explored contribution rates and action mechanisms of the above six factors on change in carbon emissions in China. Then, the effect of population structure change on carbon emission was analyzed by taking 2003–2012 as a sample period, and combining this with the panel data of 30 provinces in China. Results showed that in 2003–2012, total carbon emission increased by 4.2117 billion tons in China. The consumption inhibitory factor effect, urbanization effect, residents’ consumption effect, and population scale effect promoted the increase in carbon emissions, and their contribution ratios were 27.44%, 12.700%, 74.96%, and 5.90%, respectively. However, the influence of carbon emission factor effect (−2.54% and energy intensity effect (−18.46% on carbon emissions were negative. Population urbanization has become the main population factor which affects carbon emission in China. The “Eastern aggregation” phenomenon caused the population scale effect in the eastern area to be significantly higher than in the central and western regions, but the contribution rate of its energy intensity effect (−11.10 million tons was significantly smaller than in the central (−21.61 million tons and western regions (−13.29 million tons, and the carbon emission factor effect in the central area (−3.33 million tons was significantly higher than that in the eastern (−2.00 million tons and western regions (−1.08 million tons. During the sample period, the change in population age structure, population education structure, and population occupation structure

  13. Access to Risk Mitigating Weather Forecasts and Changes in Farming Operations in East and West Africa: Evidence from a Baseline Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abayomi Samuel Oyekale

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Unfavorable weather currently ranks among the major challenges facing agricultural development in many African countries. Impact mitigation through access to reliable and timely weather forecasts and other adaptive mechanisms are foremost in Africa’s policy dialogues and socio-economic development agendas. This paper analyzed the factors influencing access to forecasts on incidence of pests/diseases (PD and start of rainfall (SR. The data were collected by Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS and analyzed with Probit regression separately for East Africa, West Africa and the combined dataset. The results show that 62.7% and 56.4% of the farmers from East and West Africa had access to forecasts on start of rainfall, respectively. In addition, 39.3% and 49.4% of the farmers from East Africa indicated that forecasts on outbreak of pests/diseases and start of rainfall were respectively accompanied with advice as against 18.2% and 41.9% for West Africa. Having received forecasts on start of rainfall, 24.0% and 17.6% of the farmers from East and West Africa made decisions on timing of farming activities respectively. Probabilities of having access to forecasts on PD significantly increased with access to formal education, farm income and previous exposure to climatic shocks. Furthermore, probabilities of having access to forecasts on SR significantly increased (p < 0.05 with access to business income, radio and perception of more erratic rainfall, among others. It was recommended that promotion of informal education among illiterate farmers would enhance their climatic resilience, among others.

  14. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

    2012-08-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines

  15. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mahmud

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

    The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3. In general, climate

  16. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  17. FORECASTING THE CHANGE IN THE TEACHER'S CONTRIBUTION TO THE WORK OF THE DEPARTMENT USING THE METHODS OF DATA MINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleksandr Yu. Melnykov

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The existing forms and methods of assessing the work of teachers of higher educational institutions are described. The conclusion is made that the combination of indicators into groups (categories and the introduction of different weight factors depends on the specifics of the institution and the prevailing ideas about the priority of this or that type of activity. Practically all the considered methods do not take into account the change in the contribution share of each teacher in the integral indicator of the work of the whole department (department, faculty. The goal was to predict the change in the contribution of an individual teacher to the indicators of a higher education institution by means of mathematical modeling and intellectual decision-making. The prediction task is identified as a suitable data mining task. Methods for forecasting the assessment of the work of teachers - regression and neural network - were chosen. An object-oriented model of a projected computer system in the language of visual modeling of UML is described. Diagrams of use cases, classes and states are given. The program implementation of the intellectual decision-making system for evaluating the work of teachers of a higher education institution and an example of the system's operation based on real data are described. Conclusions are made about a possible change in the contribution share of each teacher in the indicators of the department.

  18. Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Veloz, S.; Holt, Benjamin George

    2016-01-01

    calibrated against taxa-climate relationships for the past 21,000 years. We find that incorporating long-term data into niche-based models increases the magnitude of projected future changes for plant abundances and community turnover. The larger projected changes in abundances and community turnover...

  19. Hydrologic Futures: Using Scenario Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forecasted Land Use Change on Hydrologic Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land cover and land use changes can substantially alter hydrologic ecosystem services. Water availability and quality can change with modifications to the type or amount of surface vegetation, the permeability of soil and other surfaces, and the introduction of contaminants throu...

  20. Changes in a box turtle population during three decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stickel, L.F.

    1978-01-01

    Studies of a Maryland population of marked box-turtles (Terrapene carolina) in 1945, 1955, 1965 and 1975 showed a pronounced decline in population size during the three decades; the greatest change came between 1965 and 1975, when numbers were reduced by half. Proportions of females and of young also declined. Fifteen % of the males and 11% of the females that were more than 20 years old in 1945 still were present in 1975; some probably were more than 80 years old.

  1. Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future

  2. Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zulima Tablado

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover

  3. Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2018-03-01

    We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Modeling and Forecasting the Impact of Major Technological and Infrastructural Changes on Travel Demand

    OpenAIRE

    El Zarwi, Feras

    2017-01-01

    The transportation system is undergoing major technological and infrastructural changes, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles, high speed rail, carsharing, ridesharing, flying cars, drones, and other app-driven on-demand services. While the changes are imminent, the impact on travel behavior is uncertain, as is the role of policy in shaping the future. Literature shows that even under the most optimistic scenarios, society’s environmental goals cannot be met by technology, operatio...

  5. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  6. Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030. The potential impact of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachariadis, Theodoros

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030, based on econometric analysis of energy use as a function of macroeconomic variables, prices and weather conditions. If past trends continue electricity use is expected to triple in the coming 20-25 years, with the residential and commercial sectors increasing their already high shares in total consumption. Besides this reference scenario it was attempted to assess the impact of climate change on electricity use. According to official projections, the average temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by about 1 C by the year 2030. Using our econometrically estimated model, we calculated that electricity consumption in Cyprus may be about 2.9% higher in 2030 than in the reference scenario. This might lead to a welfare loss of 15 million Euros in 2020 and 45 million Euros in 2030; for the entire period 2008-2030 the present value of costs may exceed 200 million Euros (all expressed in constant Euros of 2007). Moreover, we assessed the additional peak electricity load requirements in the future because of climate change: extra load may amount to 65-75 Megawatts (MW) in the year 2020 and 85-95 MW in 2030. (author)

  7. Does history have a future Forecasting climate change effects on fisheries by analogy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glantz, M.H. (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (USA))

    Fisheries represent an important aspect of economic, social, political, and cultural life in developed as well as developing societies. The relationship between biological productivity in the marine environment and climate variability and change has not been adequately addressed. There are many instances in recent times in which climate-related environmental stress (or analogies to such stress) combined to varying degrees with current fisheries management practices to bring about adverse changes in biological productivity. Changes in sea surface temperature, for example, can cause a reduction in biomass or a shift in the location of fish stocks, creating local, national, and international political, economic, and social problems. Assessing societal responses to recent instances of decline in specific fisheries can serve to identify weaknesses as well as strengths that may exist in society's ability to cope with anomalies in biological productivity in the marine environment. Important fisheries from around the world have been reviewed with the purpose of investigating response to change (slow as well as abrupt) in the abundance of living resources. Two examples are provided: the collapse of the Peruvian anchoveta fishery (early 1970s) and the Anglo-Icelandic Cod Wars (1951-77). Such cases may be directly relevant to attempts to improve our understanding of how well society might be able to cope with the effects on fisheries resources of possible regional climate changes that might be associated with a global warming.

  8. Forecasted Impact of Climate Change on Infectious Disease and Health Security in Hawaii by 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canyon, Deon V; Speare, Rick; Burkle, Frederick M

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is expected to cause extensive shifts in the epidemiology of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Scenarios on the effects of climate change typically attribute altered distribution of communicable diseases to a rise in average temperature and altered incidence of infectious diseases to weather extremes. Recent evaluations of the effects of climate change on Hawaii have not explored this link. It may be expected that Hawaii's natural geography and robust water, sanitation, and health care infrastructure renders residents less vulnerable to many threats that are the focus on smaller, lesser developed, and more vulnerable Pacific islands. In addition, Hawaii's communicable disease surveillance and response system can act rapidly to counter increases in any disease above baseline and to redirect resources to deal with changes, particularly outbreaks due to exotic pathogens. The evidence base examined in this article consistently revealed very low climate sensitivity with respect to infectious and mosquito-borne diseases. A community resilience model is recommended to increase adaptive capacity for all possible climate change impacts rather an approach that focuses specifically on communicable diseases. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:797-804).

  9. Climate change, food systems and population health risks in their eco-social context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, A J; Butler, C D; Dixon, J

    2015-10-01

    The establishment of ecological public health as crucial to modern public health is overdue. While the basic concepts have been gestating for decades, receptivity within broader public health has been limited. This position is changing, not least as the population-level impacts of climate change and, more broadly, of limits to growth are emerging from theory and forecasting into daily reality. This paper describes several key elements of ecological public health thinking. These include the 'environmental' risks to human health (often systemic and disruptive, rather than local and toxic) posed by climate change and other forms of adverse global environmental change. Closer recognition of the links between social and environmental factors has been urged--an 'eco-social' approach--and, relatedly, for greater co-operation between social and natural sciences. The authors revisit critics of capitalism who foresaw the global capture and transformation of ecosystems for material human ends, and their resultant despoliation. The perennial call within public health to reduce vulnerability by lessening poverty is more important than ever, given the multifactored threat to the health of the poor which is anticipated, assuming no radical strategies to alleviate these pressures. But enhanced health security for the poor requires more than the reconfiguring of social determinants; it also requires, as the overarching frame, ecological public health. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Direction-of-change forecasting using a volatility-based recurrent neural network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.; Georgoutsos, D.A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the profitability of a trading strategy, based on recurrent neural networks, that attempts to predict the direction-of-change of the market in the case of the NASDAQ composite index. The sample extends over the period 8 February 1971 to 7 April 1998, while the sub-period 8

  11. Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    87 Figure 8.5. Post - fire vegetation conceptual successional model...explore the consequences of interactive changes in climate and management for vegetation composition, establishment of invasive species, fire dynamics...on permafrost soils. Managing interactions among fire , vegetation , and permafrost: Fire management has the potential to influence the natural

  12. Uncertainty propagation and speculation in projective forecasts of environmental change - a lake eutrophication example.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Straten, van G.; Keesman, K.J.

    1991-01-01

    The issue of whether models developed for current conditions can yield correct predictions when used under changed control, as is often the case in environmental management, is discussed. Two models of different complexity are compared on the basis of performance criteria, but it appears that good

  13. Forecasting and Analyzing the Disease Burden of Aged Population in China, Based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengzhen Bao

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Forecasting the disease burden of the elderly will contribute to make a comprehensive assessment about physical and mental status of the elderly in China and provide a basis for reducing the negative consequences of aging society to a minimum. Methods: This study collected data from a public database online provided by Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Grey model GM (1, 1 was used to forecast all-cause and disease-specific rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs in 2015 and 2020. Results: After cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, we found that non-communicable diseases (NCDs were still the greatest threats in the elderly, followed by injuries. As for 136 predicted causes, more than half of NCDs increased obviously with age, less than a quarter of communicable, material, neonatal, and nutritional disorders or injuries had uptrend. Conclusions: The findings display the health condition of the Chinese elderly in the future, which will provide critical information for scientific and sociological researches on preventing and reducing the risks of aging society.

  14. Age structure changes and extraordinary lifespan in wild medfly populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, James R; Papadopoulos, Nikos T; Müller, Hans-Georg; Katsoyannos, Byron I; Kouloussis, Nikos A; Wang, Jane-Ling; Wachter, Kenneth; Yu, Wei; Liedo, Pablo

    2008-06-01

    The main purpose of this study was to test the hypotheses that major changes in age structure occur in wild populations of the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) and that a substantial fraction of individuals survive to middle age and beyond (> 3-4 weeks). We thus brought reference life tables and deconvolution models to bear on medfly mortality data gathered from a 3-year study of field-captured individuals that were monitored in the laboratory. The average time-to-death of captured females differed between sampling dates by 23.9, 22.7, and 37.0 days in the 2003, 2004, and 2005 field seasons, respectively. These shifts in average times-to-death provided evidence of changes in population age structure. Estimates indicated that middle-aged medflies (> 30 days) were common in the population. A surprise in the study was the extraordinary longevity observed in field-captured medflies. For example, 19 captured females but no reference females survived in the laboratory for 140 days or more, and 6 captured but no reference males survived in the laboratory for 170 days or more. This paper advances the study of aging in the wild by introducing a new method for estimating age structure in insect populations, demonstrating that major changes in age structure occur in field populations of insects, showing that middle-aged individuals are common in the wild, and revealing the extraordinary lifespans of wild-caught individuals due to their early life experience in the field.

  15. Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Driscoll, Connie; Ledesma, José L J; Coll, John; Murnane, John G; Nolan, Paul; Mockler, Eva M; Futter, Martyn N; Xiao, Liwen W

    2018-07-15

    Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. National program of fight against the climate change. 2. annual evaluation and forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This conference discussed the actions realized in the framework of the National Plan of Fight against the Climatic Change (PNLCC). The first part presents the problem, the evaluation of the PNLCC application and the control tools. the second part is devoted to the transport sector and the second to the buildings and the electric power demand control. The last part deals with the prospective and the challenges of the PNLCC. (A.L.B.)

  17. Population, conservation, and land use change in Honduras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Max J. Pfeffer; John W. Schlelhas; Stephen D. DeGloria; Jorge Gomez

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the role of population density on land use allocation and change. We are especially interested in the management of fallow areas that have come under increasing pressure given restrictions imposed by the creation of protected areas like national parks. It is argued that these restrictions to reduce deforestation create a relative scarcity of land,...

  18. How institutional theory speaks to changes in organizational populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, R

    2001-01-01

    In this issue, Begun and Luke note striking variation in organizational arrangements across local health care markets and probe how characteristics of those markets affect shifts in organizational populations over time. This article contributes to this FORUM by focusing on how institutional theory's emphasis on the culturally mediated nature of organizational change speaks to the evolution of local market structures over time.

  19. Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

    2013-12-01

    Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience

  20. Climate change and pollution speed declines in zebrafish populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, A Ross; Owen, Stewart F; Peters, James; Zhang, Yong; Soffker, Marta; Paull, Gregory C; Hosken, David J; Wahab, M Abdul; Tyler, Charles R

    2015-03-17

    Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are potent environmental contaminants, and their effects on wildlife populations could be exacerbated by climate change, especially in species with environmental sex determination. Endangered species may be particularly at risk because inbreeding depression and stochastic fluctuations in male and female numbers are often observed in the small populations that typify these taxa. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of water temperature and EDC exposure on sexual development and population viability of inbred and outbred zebrafish (Danio rerio). Water temperatures adopted were 28 °C (current ambient mean spawning temperature) and 33 °C (projected for the year 2100). The EDC selected was clotrimazole (at 2 μg/L and 10 μg/L), a widely used antifungal chemical that inhibits a key steroidogenic enzyme [cytochrome P450(CYP19) aromatase] required for estrogen synthesis in vertebrates. Elevated water temperature and clotrimazole exposure independently induced male-skewed sex ratios, and the effects of clotrimazole were greater at the higher temperature. Male sex ratio skews also occurred for the lower clotrimazole exposure concentration at the higher water temperature in inbred fish but not in outbred fish. Population viability analysis showed that population growth rates declined sharply in response to male skews and declines for inbred populations occurred at lower male skews than for outbred populations. These results indicate that elevated temperature associated with climate change can amplify the effects of EDCs and these effects are likely to be most acute in small, inbred populations exhibiting environmental sex determination and/or differentiation.

  1. Incorporating climate change and exotic species into forecasts of riparian forest distribution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana H Ikeda

    Full Text Available We examined the impact climate change (CC will have on the availability of climatically suitable habitat for three native and one exotic riparian species. Due to its increasing prevalence in arid regions throughout the western US, we predicted that an exotic species, Tamarix, would have the greatest increase in suitable habitat relative to native counterparts under CC. We used an ecological niche model to predict range shifts of Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii, Salix exigua and Tamarix, from present day to 2080s, under five general circulation models and one climate change scenario (A1B. Four major findings emerged. 1 Contrary to our original hypothesis, P. fremontii is projected to have the greatest increase in suitable habitat under CC, followed closely by Tamarix. 2 Of the native species, S. gooddingii and S. exigua showed the greatest loss in predicted suitable habitat due to CC. 3 Nearly 80 percent of future P. fremontii and Salix habitat is predicted to be affected by either CC or Tamarix by the 2080s. 4 By the 2080s, 20 percent of S. gooddingii habitat is projected to be affected by both Tamarix and CC concurrently, followed by S. exigua (19 percent and P. fremontii (13 percent. In summary, while climate change alone will negatively impact both native willow species, Tamarix is likely to affect a larger portion of all three native species' distributions. We discuss these and other results in the context of prioritizing restoration and conservation efforts to optimize future productivity and biodiversity. As we are accounting for only direct effects of CC and Tamarix on native habitat, we present a possible hierarchy of effects- from the direct to the indirect- and discuss the potential for the indirect to outweigh the direct effects. Our results highlight the need to account for simultaneous challenges in the face of CC.

  2. Inflation, GDP growth and population change in the USA

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan Kitov

    2005-01-01

    Inflation in the USA between 1960 and 2004 is studied in the framework of the revealed rigidity of the personal income distribution normalized to the total nominal GDP. Inflation is found to be a mechanism, which prevents changes in the relative incomes induced by economic growth and population changes - both in number and age structure. A model is developed linking CPI to GDP growth rate and relative change of the number of people of some specific age. The GDP growth rate is characterized by...

  3. Forecasting decadal changes in sea surface temperatures and coral bleaching within a Caribbean coral reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Angang; Reidenbach, Matthew A.

    2014-09-01

    Elevated sea surface temperature (SST) caused by global warming is one of the major threats to coral reefs. While increased SST has been shown to negatively affect the health of coral reefs by increasing rates of coral bleaching, how changes to atmospheric heating impact SST distributions, modified by local flow environments, has been less understood. This study aimed to simulate future water flow patterns and water surface heating in response to increased air temperature within a coral reef system in Bocas del Toro, Panama, located within the Caribbean Sea. Water flow and SST were modeled using the Delft3D-FLOWcomputer simulation package. Locally measured physical parameters, including bathymetry, astronomic tidal forcing, and coral habitat distribution were input into the model and water flow, and SST was simulated over a four-month period under present day, as well as projected warming scenarios in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Changes in SST, and hence the thermal stress to corals, were quantified by degree heating weeks. Results showed that present-day reported bleaching sites were consistent with localized regions of continuous high SST. Regions with highest SST were located within shallow coastal sites adjacent to the mainland or within the interior of the bay, and characterized by low currents with high water retention times. Under projected increases in SSTs, shallow reef areas in low flow regions were found to be hot spots for future bleaching.

  4. The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valladares, F.; Matesanz, S.; Guilhaumon, F.; Araujo, M.; Balaguer, L.; Benito-Garzon, M.; Cornwell, W.K.; Gianoli, E.; van Kleunen, M.; Naya, D.E.; Nicotra, A.B.; Poorter, H.; Zavala, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic

  5. Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye. M. Gusev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

  6. Forecasting the settlement of a bioreactor landfill based on gas pressure changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Gang; Li, Liang; Sun, Hongjun

    2013-10-01

    In order to study the influence of settlement under gas pressure in bioreactor landfill, the landfill is simplified as a one-way gas seepage field, combining Darcy's Law, the gas equation of state, and the principle of effective stress and fluid dynamics of porous media theory. First assume that the bioreactor landfill leachate is fully recharged on the basis of gas mass conservation, then according to the changes in gas pressure (inside the landfill and surrounding atmosphere) during the gas leakage time and settlement in the landfill, establish a numerical model of bioreactor landfill settlement under the action of the gas pressure, and use the finite difference method to solve it. Through a case study, the model's improved prediction of the settlement of bioreactor landfill is demonstrated.

  7. Effects of climate change on groundwater: observed and forecasted trends on Italian systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doveri, Marco; Menichini, Matia; Provenzale, Antonello; Scozzari, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater represents the main source of water supply at global level. In Italy, as well as in most European countries, water needs are mainly covered by groundwater exploitation. The reliance on this resource is continuously growing, given the key role that groundwater plays for mitigating the climate change/variability and for addressing the significant increase in the global water demand. Despite this, and unlike surface waters, groundwater bodies have not been widely studied, and there is a general paucity of quantitative information, especially in relation to climate change. Although groundwater systems are more resilient to climate change than surface waters, they are affected both directly and indirectly. The estimation of the entity of these effects is mandatory for a reliable management of this crucial resource. The analysis of hydro-meteorological data over a few decades highlights that also the Italian territory is experiencing a change of the climate regime. Besides the increase of mean annual temperature, observed in particular since the early 1980s, longer and more frequent drought periods have been registered, as well as an increase of extreme events characterized by heavy rainfall. It is also noticeable a decrease in total rainfall, that is much more evident in the period from January to June. In addition to the reduced yearly inputs from precipitation, such trends determine also a lower snow accumulation and earlier snow melt in mountain areas, a general increase of evapotranspiration rates and an increased runoff fraction of the effective rainfall amount. As flood hydrographs of several major Italian rivers (e.g., Po, Brenta and Arno rivers) confirm, evident effects concern surface water resources. The main observed phenomena consist in the decline of mean annual discharge, the increase of extreme events with high discharge concentrated in short periods, and longer and earlier periods of low base flow. Impacts on groundwater recharge are not well

  8. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-11-14

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  9. Population growth is a variable open to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, M.

    2016-12-01

    The absolute number of people and the rate of population growth have an impact on climate mitigation, adaptation and possible conflict. Half the pregnancies in the US are unintended. Robust quantitative evidence from California demonstrates that improving access to family planning is the single most cost-effective way of mitigating our carbon footprint. Globally, there are 80 million unintended pregnancies annually. Many non-evidence barriers deprive women of the information and means required to separate sex from childbearing. Between 1960 and 1990, meeting the need for family planning led to a rapid fall in family size in much of Asia. Since 1990, funding for family planning has collapsed and fertility decline has stalled. The UN projects that by 2100 global population will increase by 3.8 billion (equal to world population in 1975). 80% of this growth will be in Africa. Studies project that climate change will undermine crop yields in parts of Africa, especially the Sahel. A high ratio of young males to the rest of the population is a risk factor in conflict. Today, only 1% of overseas assistance is allocated to family planning. Based on analysis of the past, doubling that investment would accelerate fertility decline, facilitating climate mitigation and adaptation, and possibly reducing conflict. Population and family planning were pushed off the international agenda by unacceptably and tragic episodes of coercion in China and India. However, there is compelling data that when voluntary family planning is widely available then family size can fall rapidly, as occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where fertility fell more rapidly than in any other country in history. Family planning is listening to what women want not telling people want to do. Population growth is a variable open to change in a human rights framework. Population and family planning are variables relevant to the scientific agenda of the AGU.

  10. Conclusions, synthesis, and future directions: understanding sources of population change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Eadie, John M.

    2015-01-01

    The material in this volume reflects the burgeoning interest in sea ducks, both as study species with compelling and unique ecological attributes and as taxa of conservation concern. In this review, we provide perspective on the current state of sea duck knowledge by highlighting key findings in the preceding chapters that are of particular value for understanding or influencing population change. We also introduce a conceptual model that characterizes links among topics covered by individual chapters and places them in the context of demographic responses. Finally, we offer recommendations for areas of future research that we suggest will have importance for understanding and managing sea duck population dynamics.

  11. Web-GIS platform for monitoring and forecasting of regional climate and ecological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, E. P.; Krupchatnikov, V. N.; Lykosov, V. N.; Okladnikov, I.; Titov, A. G.; Shulgina, T. M.

    2012-12-01

    Growing volume of environmental data from sensors and model outputs makes development of based on modern information-telecommunication technologies software infrastructure for information support of integrated scientific researches in the field of Earth sciences urgent and important task (Gordov et al, 2012, van der Wel, 2005). It should be considered that original heterogeneity of datasets obtained from different sources and institutions not only hampers interchange of data and analysis results but also complicates their intercomparison leading to a decrease in reliability of analysis results. However, modern geophysical data processing techniques allow combining of different technological solutions for organizing such information resources. Nowadays it becomes a generally accepted opinion that information-computational infrastructure should rely on a potential of combined usage of web- and GIS-technologies for creating applied information-computational web-systems (Titov et al, 2009, Gordov et al. 2010, Gordov, Okladnikov and Titov, 2011). Using these approaches for development of internet-accessible thematic information-computational systems, and arranging of data and knowledge interchange between them is a very promising way of creation of distributed information-computation environment for supporting of multidiscipline regional and global research in the field of Earth sciences including analysis of climate changes and their impact on spatial-temporal vegetation distribution and state. Experimental software and hardware platform providing operation of a web-oriented production and research center for regional climate change investigations which combines modern web 2.0 approach, GIS-functionality and capabilities of running climate and meteorological models, large geophysical datasets processing, visualization, joint software development by distributed research groups, scientific analysis and organization of students and post-graduate students education is

  12. Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.

    2013-11-01

    The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other

  13. A computer model to forecast wetland vegetation changes resulting from restoration and protection in coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, Jenneke M.; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M.; Carter, Jacoby; Broussard, Whitney P.

    2013-01-01

    The coastal wetlands of Louisiana are a unique ecosystem that supports a diversity of wildlife as well as a diverse community of commercial interests of both local and national importance. The state of Louisiana has established a 5-year cycle of scientific investigation to provide up-to-date information to guide future legislation and regulation aimed at preserving this critical ecosystem. Here we report on a model that projects changes in plant community distribution and composition in response to environmental conditions. This model is linked to a suite of other models and requires input from those that simulate the hydrology and morphology of coastal Louisiana. Collectively, these models are used to assess how alternative management plans may affect the wetland ecosystem through explicit spatial modeling of the physical and biological processes affected by proposed modifications to the ecosystem. We have also taken the opportunity to advance the state-of-the-art in wetland plant community modeling by using a model that is more species-based in its description of plant communities instead of one based on aggregated community types such as brackish marsh and saline marsh. The resulting model provides an increased level of ecological detail about how wetland communities are expected to respond. In addition, the output from this model provides critical inputs for estimating the effects of management on higher trophic level species though a more complete description of the shifts in habitat.

  14. Investments on a Rugged Landscape: The Effect of Investor Population, Network Structure, and Complexity on Technological Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hain, Daniel; Mas Tur, Elena

    In this paper, we investigate which characteristics of technological and financial systems might be conductive for technological change. We are particularly in how the interplay between capabilities, resources and networks among investors with the complexity and maturity of technologies affect...... rates of technological change and diversity, and prevents technologies from getting stuck in the financial “valley of death”. In a next step, we introduce investor networks and allow agents to co-invest together in order to pool financial resources and get access to their forecasting capability...... in a specific technological domain. We compare which investor network structures lead to the high rates of technological change and diversity on a given technology landscape. Results from a Monte Carlo simulation indicate networked investor population to outperform the case of isolated stand-alone investors...

  15. [Fertility change in Mexico and the politics of population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavala De Cosio, M E

    1993-01-01

    This introduction to a detailed study of fertility change in Mexico assesses the available fertility data and describes the sources used, traces the beginning and course of the demographic transition in Mexico, and describes the work. Mexico's demographic transition began around 1930 with the acceleration of mortality decline. The considerable time lag between the mortality decline and the beginning of the fertility decline resulted in a period of very rapid growth. Between 1955 and 1975, the growth rate exceeded 3% annually. The start of the fertility decline dated to about 1970, the time of a major reform of population policy and creation of institutions to reduce growth. But the fertility decline was not solely the result of population programs. An incipient fertility decline could be observed in the metropolitan and more educated population sectors beginning in the early 1960s. The onset of the mortality decline in the 1930s resulted from the sustained social and economic progress made possible after the conclusion of the Mexican Revolution. Between 1930 and 1980, the adult illiteracy rate declined from 61.2% to 17%, while life expectancy increased from 33 years to 63.2 years. In Mexico as in other Latin American countries, the mortality decline, which disturbed the traditional balance between high mortality and high fertility, was the force setting off the demographic transition and the necessary precursor to fertility decline. The first of two main sections of the book focuses on examination of fertility variations in Mexico since around 1900 using cross-sectional and longitudinal methods of analysis. The second part describes the origins, history, and institutions involved in Mexico's population policies and the demographic programs and their principal results. The influence of population policies in demographic change is assessed, especially in the case of fertility changes induced by family planning programs. Both the first and second parts sought to place

  16. Development and changes in consumption expenditures of the population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Toufarová

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with development and changes in consumption expenditures of population. It uses secondary data to analyze consumption expenditures of EU-25 and the Czech Republic and concetrates on changes in the expenditure groups over the period of past years. Other part of this paper is devoted to primary data analysis. Primary data were obtained in a questionnaire survey. Primary data analysis is based on statistical methods and it investigates changes in the structure of consumption expenditures of households in relation to changes in household income. By using dependency analysis the paper verifies dependency of surveyed groups of consumption expenditures and groups of households sorted by identification characteristics. Additionally, also based on the primary research, the paper tries to find out the way households allocate money surplus remaining after covering all the adequate expenses.

  17. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  18. Seasonal changes in the population of Menacanthus cornutus (Phthiraptera: Amblycera)

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Adesh; Kumar, Rakesh

    2013-01-01

    The chicken body louse, Menacanthus cornutus (Menoponidae s.l.) completes its whole life cycle on the body of Gallus gallus domesticus. The louse exploits the microclimate developed by host skin temperature and feather cover. The weekly visual examination has demonstrated the pronounced response on the population fluctuation of M. cornutus to the seasonal changes in the environment despite all favourable condition on the body of homothermic host. The experiments commences from April 2008. The...

  19. Population viability of Pediocactus brady (Cactaceae) in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shryock, Daniel F.; Esque, Todd C.; Huges, Lee

    2014-01-01

    • Premise of the study: A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi, an endangered cactus in northern Arizona.

  20. [World population and development: an important change in perspective].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallin, J

    1984-10-24

    The International Population Conference in Mexico City was much less controversial than the World Population Conference in Bucharest 10 years previously, in part because the message of Bucharest was widely accepted and in part because of changes that occurred in the demographic and economic situations in the succeeding decade. The UN medium population projection for 1985 has been proved quite accurate; it is not as alarming as the high projection but still represents a doubling of world population in less than 40 years. The control of fertility upon which the medium projection was predicated is well underway. The movement from high to low rates of fertility and mortality began in the 18th century in the industrial countries and lasted about 1 1/2 centuries during which the population surplus was dispersed throughout the world, especially in North and South America. The 2nd phase of movement from high to low rates currently underway in the developing countries has produced a far greater population increase. The proportion of the population in the developed areas of Europe, North America, the USSR, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand will decline from about 1/3 of the 2.5 billion world population of 1950 to 1/4 of the 3.7 billion of 1985, to 1/5 of the 4.8 billion of 2000, and probably 1/7 of the 10 billion when world population stabilizes at the end of the next century. The growth rates of developing countries are not homogeneous; the populations of China and India have roughly doubled in the past 35 years while that of Latin America has multiplied by 2 1/2. The population of Africa more than doubled in 35 years and will almost triple by 2025. The number of countries with over 50 million inhabitants, 9 in 1950, will increase from 19 in 1985 to 32 in 2025. The process of urbanization is almost complete in the industrialized countries, with about 75% of the population urban in 1985, but urban populations will continue to grow rapidly in the developing countries as rural

  1. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  2. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  3. Ambient air pollution, climate change, and population health in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kan, Haidong; Chen, Renjie; Tong, Shilu

    2012-07-01

    As the largest developing country, China has been changing rapidly over the last three decades and its economic expansion is largely driven by the use of fossil fuels, which leads to a dramatic increase in emissions of both ambient air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs). China is now facing the worst air pollution problem in the world, and is also the largest emitter of carbon dioxide. A number of epidemiological studies on air pollution and population health have been conducted in China, using time-series, case-crossover, cross-sectional, cohort, panel or intervention designs. The increased health risks observed among Chinese population are somewhat lower in magnitude, per amount of pollution, than the risks found in developed countries. However, the importance of these increased health risks is greater than that in North America or Europe, because the levels of air pollution in China are very high in general and Chinese population accounts for more than one fourth of the world's totals. Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that climate change has already affected human health directly and indirectly in China, including mortality from extreme weather events; changes in air and water quality; and changes in the ecology of infectious diseases. If China acts to reduce the combustion of fossil fuels and the resultant air pollution, it will reap not only the health benefits associated with improvement of air quality but also the reduced GHG emissions. Consideration of the health impact of air pollution and climate change can help the Chinese government move forward towards sustainable development with appropriate urgency. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2015-08-01

    Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  5. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karine Princé

    Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

  6. Forecasting wildlife response to rapid warming in the Alaskan Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Flint, Paul L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Koch, Joshua C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Oakley, Karen L.; Pearce, John M.

    2015-01-01

    Arctic wildlife species face a dynamic and increasingly novel environment because of climate warming and the associated increase in human activity. Both marine and terrestrial environments are undergoing rapid environmental shifts, including loss of sea ice, permafrost degradation, and altered biogeochemical fluxes. Forecasting wildlife responses to climate change can facilitate proactive decisions that balance stewardship with resource development. In this article, we discuss the primary and secondary responses to physical climate-related drivers in the Arctic, associated wildlife responses, and additional sources of complexity in forecasting wildlife population outcomes. Although the effects of warming on wildlife populations are becoming increasingly well documented in the scientific literature, clear mechanistic links are often difficult to establish. An integrated science approach and robust modeling tools are necessary to make predictions and determine resiliency to change. We provide a conceptual framework and introduce examples relevant for developing wildlife forecasts useful to management decisions.

  7. Spatial Changes and Population Movements on the Albanian Coastline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanjir, U.; Gregorič Bon, N.

    2016-06-01

    The last decade has seen a large increase in construction along the southern Albanian coastline, mainly in the rise of large tourist complexes comprising hotels, apartment houses, touristic villages, and so on. These constructions rarely follow urban planning and not only change its landscape but also often threaten the ecological value of the coastal zone. The uncontrolled and devastating construction along the coast has been accompanied by coastal erosion caused by the sea with the intensity up to 50 cm/year. This paper investigates the environmental change monitoring on the Albanian Riviera by analysing optical remote sensing data (Landsat 5 and 8) in the period between 1984 and 2015. The image analysis results grounded on the change vector analysis indicate coastal morphology changes and land cover changes in the coastal environment, which appear mostly due to erosion in river delta and urban growth. Apart from identifying both phenomena through time, the objective of this study is to show that these landscape changes in fact correlate with the population migration as well as to explain why and the extent to which Albania is one of the most migratory countries in Europe. Based on the multidisciplinary research, which combines anthropological method with spatial analysis, this presentation anticipates future changes in this area. It argues that movements of both people and in landscape formations strongly influence each other, constituting a closely corresponding relationship.

  8. Population viability of Pediocactus bradyi (Cactaceae) in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shryock, Daniel F; Esque, Todd C; Hughes, Lee

    2014-11-01

    A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi, an endangered cactus in northern Arizona. We used a matrix model to calculate stochastic population growth rates (λs) and the relative influences of life-cycle transitions on population growth. Regression models linked population growth with climatic variability, while stochastic simulations were used to (1) understand how predicted increases in drought frequency and extreme precipitation would affect λs, and (2) quantify variability in λs based on temporal replication of data. Overall λs was below unity (0.961). Population growth was equally influenced by fecundity and survival and significantly correlated with increased annual precipitation and higher winter temperatures. Stochastic simulations increasing the probability of drought and extreme precipitation reduced λs, but less than simulations increasing the probability of drought alone. Simulations varying the temporal replication of data suggested 14 yr were required for accurate λs estimates. Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

  9. Population size does not explain past changes in cultural complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaesen, Krist; Collard, Mark; Cosgrove, Richard; Roebroeks, Wil

    2016-04-19

    Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004)Am Antiq69:197-214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009)Science324(5932):1298-1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record.

  10. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    forecasts where a dampening of the differences of precipitation quality occurs. Seasonal meteorological forecasts are possible due to changes of large scale patterns of the ocean and land, such as el Niño, that evolve at a much slower pace than the atmosphere, which can have an impact on its evolution later...

  11. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  12. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  13. Climate change forecasting in a mountainous data scarce watershed using CMIP5 models under representative concentration pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghakhani Afshar, A.; Hasanzadeh, Y.; Besalatpour, A. A.; Pourreza-Bilondi, M.

    2017-07-01

    Hydrology cycle of river basins and available water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly affected by climate changes. In recent years, the increment of temperature due to excessive increased emission of greenhouse gases has led to an abnormality in the climate system of the earth. The main objective of this study is to survey the future climate changes in one of the biggest mountainous watersheds in northeast of Iran (i.e., Kashafrood). In this research, by considering the precipitation and temperature as two important climatic parameters in watersheds, 14 models evolved in the general circulation models (GCMs) of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to forecast the future climate changes in the study area. For the historical period of 1992-2005, four evaluation criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), percent of bias (PBIAS), coefficient of determination ( R 2) and the ratio of the root-mean-square-error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) were used to compare the simulated observed data for assessing goodness-of-fit of the models. In the primary results, four climate models namely GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, and NorESM1-M were selected among the abovementioned 14 models due to their more prediction accuracies to the investigated evaluation criteria. Thereafter, climate changes of the future periods (near-century, 2006-2037; mid-century, 2037-2070; and late-century, 2070-2100) were investigated and compared by four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of new emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In order to assess the trend of annual and seasonal changes of climatic components, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test (MK) was also employed. The results of Mann-Kendall test revealed that the precipitation has significant variable trends of both positive and negative alterations. Furthermore, the mean, maximum, and minimum temperature values had

  14. The dwindling role of population pressure in land use change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch-Thomsen, Torben; Reenberg, Anette

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores a contemporary coupled human-environmental system on a small island in the South West Pacific. It describes the historical change of the resource management strategies, notably the agricultural land use, in this former subsistence system. Our conceptual mindset draws on Boserup......’s classic theories of land use intensification as well as on her more recently proposed heuristic framework to describe development processes that underpin land use system change. We illustrate how land use has become partially disconnected from the local population pressure and therefore remains relatively...... stable while the larger livelihood portfolio has undergone significant diversification. At present, the agricultural system is a supplement to a range of strategies that support the increasing number of people on the island. This explains why land use patterns continue relatively unchanged while...

  15. Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014M=6.0 West Napa earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Thomas E.; Segou, Margaret; Sevilgen, Volkan; Milner, Kevin; Field, Edward; Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.

    2014-01-01

    We calculate stress changes resulting from the M= 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress-based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults.

  16. The Latest Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurence, David

    2002-01-01

    Discusses the "latest forecast" for the future of English departments. Addresses departmental and institutional staffing practices, employment opportunities for PhDs, the acceleration of change in the institution, and the general state of the study and teaching of English. (RS)

  17. Realized population change for long-term monitoring: California spotted owl case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary M. Conner; John J. Keane; Claire V. Gallagher; Gretchen Jehle; Thomas E. Munton; Paula A. Shaklee; Ross A. Gerrard

    2013-01-01

    The annual rate of population change (λt) is a good metric for evaluating population performance because it summarizes survival and recruitment rates and can be used for open populations. Another measure of population performance, realized population change (Δt...

  18. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  19. Derivation of travel demand forecasting models for low population areas: the case of Port Said Governorate, North East Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Mohamed Semeida

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, there has been substantial development in modeling techniques of travel demand estimation. For low population areas the external trip estimation is important but usually neglected in travel demand modeling process. In Egypt, the researches in this field are scarce due to lack of data. Accordingly, this paper aims to identify and estimate the main variables that affect the travel demand in low population areas, and to develop models to predict them. The study focused on the Port Said Governorate in North East Egypt. A special questionnaire had been prepared in 2010 depending on interviews of passengers at basic taxi terminals in Port Said. And 2211 filled questionnaires were offering for research. To analyze the data, two modeling procedures were used. One is the multiple linear regression and the other is the generalized linear modeling (GLM applying normal distributions. It is found that GLM procedure offers more suitable and accurate approach than the linear regression for developing number of trips. The final demand models have statistics within the acceptable regions and, also, they are conceptually reasonable. These results are so important for Egyptian highway authorities to improve the efficiency of highway transportation system in Egypt.

  20. Proceedings of a USGS Workshop on Facing Tomorrow's Challenges Along the U.S.-Mexico Border - Monitoring, Modeling, and Forecasting Change Within the Arizona-Sonora Transboundary Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Laura M.; Hirsch, Derrick D.; Ward, A. Wesley

    2008-01-01

    INTRODUCTION TO THE WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS Competition for water resources, habitats, and urban areas in the Borderlands has become an international concern. In the United States, Department of Interior Bureaus, Native American Tribes, and other State and Federal partners rely on the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide unbiased science and leadership in the Borderlands region. Consequently, the USGS hosted a workshop, ?Facing Tomorrow?s Challenges along the U.S.-Mexico Border,? on March 20?22, 2007, in Tucson, Ariz., focused specifically on monitoring, modeling, and forecasting change within the Arizona-Sonora Transboundary Watersheds

  1. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  2. Change in genetic size of small-closed populations: lessons from a domestic mammal population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Ghafouri-Kesbi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to monitor changes in genetic size of a small-closed population of Iranian Zandi sheep, by using pedigree information from animals born between 1991 and 2005. The genetic size was assessed by using measures based on the probability of identity-by-descend of genes (coancestry, f, and effective population size, Ne, as well as measures based on probability of gene origin (effective number of founders, f e, effective number of founder genomes, f g, and effective number of non-founder genomes, f ne. Average coancestry, or the degree of genetic similarity of individuals, increased from 0.81% to 1.44% during the period 1993 to 2005, at the same time that Ne decreased from 263 to 93. The observed trend for f e was irregular throughout the experiment in a way that f e was 68, 87, 77, 92, and 80 in 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, and 2005, respectively. Simultaneously, f g, the most informative effective number, decreased from 61 to 35. The index of genetic diversity (GD which was obtained from estimates of f g,decreased about 2% throughout the period studied. In addition, a noticeable reduction was observed in the estimates of f ne from 595 in 1993 to 61 in 2005. The higher than 1 ratio of f e to f g indicated the presence of bottlenecks and genetic drift in the development of this population of Zandi sheep. From 1993 to 1999, f ne was much higher than f e, thereby indicating that with respect to loss of genetic diversity, the unequal contribution of founders was more important than the random genetic drift in non-founder generations. Subsequently, random genetic drift in non-founder generations was the major reason for f e> f ne. The minimization of average coancestry in new reproductive individuals was recommended as a means of preserving the population against a further loss in genetic diversity.

  3. Climate change and health: Indoor heat exposure in vulnerable populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Sánchez, Brisa N.; Jolliet, Olivier; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Parker, Edith A.; Timothy Dvonch, J.; O'Neill, Marie S.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and hot weather in many urban environments. Older people are more vulnerable to heat exposure but spend most of their time indoors. Few published studies have addressed indoor heat exposure in residences occupied by an elderly population. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between outdoor and indoor temperatures in homes occupied by the elderly and determine other predictors of indoor temperature. Materials and methods: We collected hourly indoor temperature measurements of 30 different homes; outdoor temperature, dewpoint temperature, and solar radiation data during summer 2009 in Detroit, MI. We used mixed linear regression to model indoor temperatures' responsiveness to weather, housing and environmental characteristics, and evaluated our ability to predict indoor heat exposures based on outdoor conditions. Results: Average maximum indoor temperature for all locations was 34.85 °C, 13.8 °C higher than average maximum outdoor temperature. Indoor temperatures of single family homes constructed of vinyl paneling or wood siding were more sensitive than brick homes to outdoor temperature changes and internal heat gains. Outdoor temperature, solar radiation, and dewpoint temperature predicted 38% of the variability of indoor temperatures. Conclusions: Indoor exposures to heat in Detroit exceed the comfort range among elderly occupants, and can be predicted using outdoor temperatures, characteristics of the housing stock and surroundings to improve heat exposure assessment for epidemiological investigations. Weatherizing homes and modifying home surroundings could mitigate indoor heat exposure among the elderly.

  4. Using Christmas Bird Count data in analysis of population change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

    2002-01-01

    The scientific credibility of Christmas Bird Count (CBC) results depend on the development and implementation of appropriate methods of statistical analysis. The key to any successful analysis of CBC data is to begin with a careful review of how the limitations of the data are likely to influence the results of the analysis, then to choose methods of analysis that accommodate as much as possible the limitations of the survey. For our analyses of CBC data, we develop a flexible model for effort adjustment and use information from the data to guide the selection of the best model. We include geographic structuring to accommodate the regional variation in number of samples, use a model that allows for overdispersed poisson data appropriate for counts, and employ empirical Bayes procedures to accommodate differences in quality of information in regional summaries. This generalized linear model approach is very flexible, and can be applied to a variety of studies focused on factors influencing wintering bird populations. In particular, the model can be easily modified to contain covariates, allowing for assessment of associations between CBC counts and winter weather, disturbance, and a variety of other environmental factors. These new survey analysis methods have added value in that they provide insights into changes in survey design that can enhance the value of the information. The CBC has been extremely successful as a tool for increasing public interest in birding and bird conservation. Use of the information for bird conservation creates new demands on quality of information, and it is important to maintain a dialogue between users of the information, information needs for the analyses, and survey coordinators and participants. Our work as survey analysts emphasizes the value and limitations of existing data, and provides some indications of what features of the survey could be modified to make the survey a more reliable source of bird population data. Surveys

  5. Some examination on the A-bomb exposed population and the number deceased through the population changes in census, 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuzaki, Minoru; Ueoka, Hiroshi

    1976-01-01

    The population of Nagasaki City was estimated from the source materials such as the national census and the census of the population taken from 1920 to 1950, and values obtained were discussed. During the period from 1944 to 1945, the population of Nagasaki prefecture showed remarkable changes, such as abnormal decrease of 130 thousands (47.6 per cent) in Nagasaki City, and increase of 83 thousands (10.3 per cent) in the suburban districts. The fact indicated that the changes of population were owing to the decease by atomic bomb exposure, and the considerable number of population drained from Nagasaki City to the suburban districts. The population in 1945 was estimated to 286 thousands based on the changes of the population in the past when the actual population was 142 thousands being the defect 144 thousands. As this defect also included the survivors who had settled out from Nagasaki City, the estimation of the defective population revealed to be 90 thousands, by the examination on the increased population and increasing rates in the preceding year in the neighbouring 4 rural districts, and on the above-mentioned estimation of the population in 1945. In addition, draftees who had been working in Nagasaki Prefecture might resettle out to other prefectures because of the derequisition in the latest period of the War being the conjecture 20 thousands people. The real defective population was conjected to be 6 to 7 thousands. (Mukohata, S.)

  6. Demographic Changes of Hispanic Populations and Hispanic Student Enrollment in Texas Community Colleges: A Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Jack; Slate, John R.; Joyner, Sheila A.

    2015-01-01

    In this literature review, Hispanic demographic changes in the United States and in Texas are examined. Hispanics have accounted for large changes in population, population change, and proportion of population. Accordingly, the literature was reviewed regarding Hispanic immigrants, both authorized and non-authorized immigrants. The issue of…

  7. Canine parvovirus effect on wolf population change and pup survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L.D.; Goyal, S.M.

    1993-01-01

    Canine parvovirus infected wild canids more than a decade ago, but no population effect has been documented. In wild Minnesota wolves (Canis lupus) over a 12-yr period, the annual percent population increase and proportion of pups each were inversely related to the percentage of wolves serologically positive to the disease. Although these effects did not seem to retard this large extant population, similar relationships in more isolated wolf populations might hinder recovery of this endangered and threatened species.

  8. Change in genetic size of small-closed populations: Lessons from a domestic mammal population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghafouri-Kesbi, Farhad

    2010-10-01

    The aim of this study was to monitor changes in genetic size of a small-closed population of Iranian Zandi sheep, by using pedigree information from animals born between 1991 and 2005. The genetic size was assessed by using measures based on the probability of identity-by-descend of genes (coancestry, f, and effective population size, N(e) ), as well as measures based on probability of gene origin (effective number of founders, f(e) , effective number of founder genomes, f(g) , and effective number of non-founder genomes, f(ne) ). Average coancestry, or the degree of genetic similarity of individuals, increased from 0.81% to 1.44% during the period 1993 to 2005, at the same time that N(e) decreased from 263 to 93. The observed trend for f(e) was irregular throughout the experiment in a way that f(e) was 68, 87, 77, 92, and 80 in 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, and 2005, respectively. Simultaneously, f(g) , the most informative effective number, decreased from 61 to 35. The index of genetic diversity (GD) which was obtained from estimates of f(g) , decreased about 2% throughout the period studied. In addition, a noticeable reduction was observed in the estimates of f(ne) from 595 in 1993 to 61 in 2005. The higher than 1 ratio of f(e) to f(g) indicated the presence of bottlenecks and genetic drift in the development of this population of Zandi sheep. From 1993 to 1999, f(ne) was much higher than f(e) , thereby indicating that with respect to loss of genetic diversity, the unequal contribution of founders was more important than the random genetic drift in non-founder generations. Subsequently, random genetic drift in non-founder generations was the major reason for f(e) > f(ne) . The minimization of average coancestry in new reproductive individuals was recommended as a means of preserving the population against a further loss in genetic diversity.

  9. Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

    2010-12-01

    Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically

  10. Load forecasting method considering temperature effect for distribution network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Xiao Fang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To improve the accuracy of load forecasting, the temperature factor was introduced into the load forecasting in this paper. This paper analyzed the characteristics of power load variation, and researched the rule of the load with the temperature change. Based on the linear regression analysis, the mathematical model of load forecasting was presented with considering the temperature effect, and the steps of load forecasting were given. Used MATLAB, the temperature regression coefficient was calculated. Using the load forecasting model, the full-day load forecasting and time-sharing load forecasting were carried out. By comparing and analyzing the forecast error, the results showed that the error of time-sharing load forecasting method was small in this paper. The forecasting method is an effective method to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.

  11. Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Shinneman, Douglas; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2018-01-01

    Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results

  12. Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, Kaitlin C; Shinneman, Douglas J; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

    2018-03-14

    Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results

  13. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Japan's actual energy supply/demand in 1986 and background - drastically changing economic/energy situations upset plans and forecasts by a wide margin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujime, K

    1987-05-01

    In 1986 the value of the yen soared and there was a lowering of interest rates and a slump in crude oil prices. These drastic changes in economic/energy situations brought about a completely different picture of Japan's energy supply and demand from originally expected. Energy demand from large industrial users was lowered and impacts of price fluctuations on energy supply and demand were uneven. Topics covered in the paper are: economic/industrial trends; energy price trends; actual energy supply and demand including electricity, oil, town gas, coal and LNG (liquefied natural gas); trends of major energy-consuming industries and energy consumption including steel industry, paper/pulp industry, cement industry and petrochemical industry; plans/forecasts completely off the track due to drastically changing economic/energy situations.

  15. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

  16. Climate Change-Related Water Disasters' Impact on Population Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veenema, Tener Goodwin; Thornton, Clifton P; Lavin, Roberta Proffitt; Bender, Annah K; Seal, Stella; Corley, Andrew

    2017-11-01

    Rising global temperatures have resulted in an increased frequency and severity of cyclones, hurricanes, and flooding in many parts of the world. These climate change-related water disasters (CCRWDs) have a devastating impact on communities and the health of residents. Clinicians and policymakers require a substantive body of evidence on which to base planning, prevention, and disaster response to these events. The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the literature concerning the impact of CCRWDs on public health in order to identify factors in these events that are amenable to preparedness and mitigation. Ultimately, this evidence could be used by nurses to advocate for greater preparedness initiatives and inform national and international disaster policy. A systematic literature review of publications identified through a comprehensive search of five relevant databases (PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature [CINAHL], Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science) was conducted using a modified Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach in January 2017 to describe major themes and associated factors of the impact of CCRWDs on population health. Three major themes emerged: environmental disruption resulting in exposure to toxins, population susceptibility, and health systems infrastructure (failure to plan-prepare-mitigate, inadequate response, and lack of infrastructure). Direct health impact was characterized by four major categories: weather-related morbidity and mortality, waterborne diseases/water-related illness, vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, and psychiatric/mental health effects. Scope and duration of the event are factors that exacerbate the impact of CCRWDs. Discussion of specific factors amenable to mitigation was limited. Flooding as an event was overrepresented in this analysis (60%), and the majority of the research reviewed was conducted in high-income or upper

  17. Patterns of population change in Ghana (1984-2000)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller-Jensen, Lasse; Knudsen, Michael Helt

    2008-01-01

      The study addresses population dynamics in Ghana on the urban and regional levels between 1984 and 2000. At the urban level, the development trends are analyzed for urban localities (population above 5,000) on the basis of geo-coded census data. Potential driving forces for rapid population gro...... with a more in-depth discussion of the development characteristics of Ghana's Western Region. This region has experienced one of the highest regional population growth rates, mainly due to its status as a ‘frontier' for cocoa production....

  18. Population Change in a Marine Bird Colony is Driven By Changes in Recruitment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony J. Gaston

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The population dynamics of long-lived birds are thought to be very sensitive to changes in adult survival. However, where natal philopatry is low, recruitment from the larger metapopulation may have the strongest effect on population growth rate even in long-lived species. Here, we illustrate such a situation where changes in a seabird colony size appeared to be the consequence of changes in recruitment. We studied the population dynamics of a declining colony of Ancient Murrelets (Synthliboramphus antiquus at East Limestone Island, British Columbia. During 1990-2010, Ancient Murrelet chicks were trapped at East Limestone Island while departing to sea, using a standard trapping method carried on throughout the departure period. Adult murrelets were trapped while departing from the colony during 1990-2003. Numbers of chicks trapped declined during 1990-1995, probably because of raccoon predation, increased slightly from 1995-2000 and subsequently declined again. Reproductive success was 30% lower during 2000-2003 than in earlier years, mainly because of an increase in desertions. The proportion of nonbreeders among adult birds trapped at night also declined over the study period. Mortality of adult birds, thought to be mainly prebreeders, from predators more than doubled over the same period. Apparent adult survival of breeders remained constant during 1991-2002 once the first year after banding was excluded, but the apparent survival rates in the first year after banding fell and the survival of birds banded as chicks to age three halved over the same period. A matrix model of population dynamics suggested that even during the early part of the study immigration from other breeding areas must have been substantial, supporting earlier observations that natal philopatry in this species is low. The general colony decline after 2000 probably was related to diminished recruitment, as evidenced by the lower proportion of nonbreeders in the trapped

  19. Microbial population changes during bioremediation of an experimental oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacNaughton, S.J.; Stephen, J.R.; Chang, Y.J.; Davis, G.A.; White, D.C.; Oak Ridge National Lab., TN

    1999-01-01

    Three crude oil bioremediation techniques were applied in a randomized block field experiment simulating a coastal oil spill. Four treatments (no oil control, oil alone, oil plus nutrients, and oil plus nutrients plus an indigenous inoculum) were applied. In situ microbial community structures were monitored by phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and 16S rDNA PCR-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) to (i) identify the bacterial community members responsible for the decontamination of the site and (ii) define an end point for the removal of the hydrocarbon substrate. The results of PLFA analysis demonstrated a community shift in all plots from primarily eukaryotic biomass to gram-negative bacterial biomass with time. PLFA profiles from the oiled plots suggested increased gram-negative biomass and adaptation to metabolic stress compared to unoiled controls. DGGE analysis of untreated control plots revealed a simple, dynamic dominant population structure throughout the experiment. This banding pattern disappeared in all oiled plots, indicating that the structure and diversity of the dominant bacterial community changed substantially. No consistent differences were detected between nutrient-amended and indigenous inoculum-treated plots, but both differed from the oil-only plots. Prominent bands were excised for sequence analysis and indicated that oil treatment encouraged the growth of gram-negative microorganisms within the α-proteobacteria and Flexibacter-Cytophaga-Bacteroides phylum. α-Proteobacteria were never detected in unoiled controls. PLFA analysis indicated that by week 14 the microbial community structures of the oiled plots were becoming similar to those of the unoiled controls from the same time point, but DGGE analysis suggested that major differences in the bacterial communities remained

  20. Cognitive and brain structural changes in a lung cancer population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simó, Marta; Root, James C; Vaquero, Lucía; Ripollés, Pablo; Jové, Josep; Ahles, Tim; Navarro, Arturo; Cardenal, Felipe; Bruna, Jordi; Rodríguez-Fornells, Antoni

    2015-01-01

    No study has examined structural brain changes specifically associated with chemotherapy in a lung cancer population. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to assess differences in brain structure between small-cell lung cancer patients (C+) following chemotherapy, non-small-cell lung cancer patients (C-) before chemotherapy and healthy controls (HC). Twenty-eight small-cell lung cancer patients underwent a neuropsychological assessment and a structural magnetic resonance imaging, including T1-weighted and diffusion tensor imaging to examine gray matter density and white matter (WM) integrity, respectively, 1 month following completion of platinum-based chemotherapy. This group was compared with 20 age and education-matched non-small-cell lung cancer patients before receiving chemotherapy and 20 HC. Both C+ and C- groups exhibited cognitive impairment compared with the HC group. The C+ group performed significantly worse than HC in verbal fluency and visuospatial subtests; C- performed significantly worse than both C+ and HC in verbal memory. Voxel-based morphometry analysis revealed lower gray matter density in the insula and parahippocampal gyrus bilaterally, and left anterior cingulate cortex in C+ compared with HC. Diffusion tensor imaging indices showed focal decreased WM integrity in left cingulum and bilateral inferior longitudinal fasciculus in the C+ group and more widespread decreased integrity in the C- group compared with the HC group. This study demonstrates that lung cancer patients exhibit cognitive impairment before and after chemotherapy. Before the treatment, C- showed verbal memory deficits as well as a widespread WM damage. Following treatment, the C+ group performed exhibited lower visuospatial and verbal fluency abilities, together with structural gray matter and WM differences in bilateral regions integrating the paralimbic system.

  1. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  2. TyG Index Change Is More Determinant for Forecasting Type 2 Diabetes Onset Than Weight Gain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro-González, David; Sánchez-Íñigo, Laura; Fernández-Montero, Alejandro; Pastrana-Delgado, Juan; Martinez, Jose Alfredo

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The risk of type 2 diabetes associated with obesity appears to be influenced by other metabolic abnormalities, and there is controversy about the harmless condition of the metabolically healthy obese (MHO) state. The aim of this study is to assess the risk of diabetes and the impact of changes in weight and in triglyceride-glucose index (TyG index), according to the metabolic health and obesity states. We analyzed prospective data of the Vascular Metabolic CUN cohort, a population-based study among a White European population (mean follow-up, 8.9 years). Incident diabetes was assessed in 1923 women and 3016 men with a mean age at baseline of 55.33 ± 13.68 and 53.78 ± 12.98 years old. A Cox proportional-hazard analysis was conducted to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of diabetes on metabolically healthy nonobese (MHNO), metabolically healthy obese, metabolically unhealthy nonobese (MUNO), and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO). A continuous standardized variable (z-score) was derived to compute the HR for diabetes per 1-SD increment in the body mass index (BMI) and the TyG index. MHO, MUNO, and MUO status were associated with the development of diabetes, HR of 2.26 (95% CI: 1.25–4.07), 3.04 (95% CI: 1.69–5.47), and 4.04 (95% CI: 2.14–7.63), respectively. MUNO individuals had 1.82 greater risk of diabetes compared to MHO subjects (95% CI: 1.04–3.22). The HRs for incident diabetes per 1-SD increment in BMI and TyG indexes were 1.23 (95% CI: 1.04–1.44) and 1.54 (95% CI: 1.40–1.68). The increase in BMI did not raise the risk of developing diabetes among metabolically unhealthy subjects, whereas increasing the TyG index significantly affect the risk in all metabolic health categories. Metabolic health is more important determinant for diabetes onset than weight gain. The increase in weight does not raise the risk of developing diabetes among metabolically unhealthy subjects. PMID:27175686

  3. TyG Index Change Is More Determinant for Forecasting Type 2 Diabetes Onset Than Weight Gain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro-González, David; Sánchez-Íñigo, Laura; Fernández-Montero, Alejandro; Pastrana-Delgado, Juan; Martinez, Jose Alfredo

    2016-05-01

    The risk of type 2 diabetes associated with obesity appears to be influenced by other metabolic abnormalities, and there is controversy about the harmless condition of the metabolically healthy obese (MHO) state. The aim of this study is to assess the risk of diabetes and the impact of changes in weight and in triglyceride-glucose index (TyG index), according to the metabolic health and obesity states.We analyzed prospective data of the Vascular Metabolic CUN cohort, a population-based study among a White European population (mean follow-up, 8.9 years). Incident diabetes was assessed in 1923 women and 3016 men with a mean age at baseline of 55.33 ± 13.68 and 53.78 ± 12.98 years old.A Cox proportional-hazard analysis was conducted to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of diabetes on metabolically healthy nonobese (MHNO), metabolically healthy obese, metabolically unhealthy nonobese (MUNO), and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO). A continuous standardized variable (z-score) was derived to compute the HR for diabetes per 1-SD increment in the body mass index (BMI) and the TyG index.MHO, MUNO, and MUO status were associated with the development of diabetes, HR of 2.26 (95% CI: 1.25-4.07), 3.04 (95% CI: 1.69-5.47), and 4.04 (95% CI: 2.14-7.63), respectively. MUNO individuals had 1.82 greater risk of diabetes compared to MHO subjects (95% CI: 1.04-3.22). The HRs for incident diabetes per 1-SD increment in BMI and TyG indexes were 1.23 (95% CI: 1.04-1.44) and 1.54 (95% CI: 1.40-1.68). The increase in BMI did not raise the risk of developing diabetes among metabolically unhealthy subjects, whereas increasing the TyG index significantly affect the risk in all metabolic health categories.Metabolic health is more important determinant for diabetes onset than weight gain. The increase in weight does not raise the risk of developing diabetes among metabolically unhealthy subjects.

  4. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. krhi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kbpk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kbpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. katy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. tjmz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kcxp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. krkd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kloz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kcec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kstl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kbfi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. khsv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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  20. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. Temporal changes in genetic variation of boll weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) populations, and implications for population assignment in eradication zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genetic differentiation among 10 populations of boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis grandis, sampled in 2009, in Texas and Mexico, was determined using ten microsatellite loci. In addition, temporal changes in genetic composition were examined in the eight populations for which samples were available fr...

  3. [The gene pool of the Belgorod oblast population: changes in the endogamy indices of district populations with time].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churnosov, M I; Sorokina, I N; Balanovskaia, E V

    2008-08-01

    Changes in the endogamy indices of district populations of the Central Chernozem region of Russia during the past 100 years were studied. The size of an elementary population in this region increased from that of a rural municipality in the mid-20th century to that of an administrative district in the late 20th century.

  4. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  5. Missing cycles: Effect of climate change on population dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    population dynamics of the larch budmoth – an insect pest which causes massive defoliation of entire larch forests ... hypothesized that global warming has led to the collapse of the cycles ... When temperatures increase after winter, and the.

  6. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  7. Incorporating regional growth into forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from project-level residential and commercial development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowangould, Dana; Eldridge, Melody; Niemeier, Deb

    2013-01-01

    To better understand the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of land use planning decisions, regional planning organizations have developed tools to forecast the emissions from project-level residential and commercial development. This paper reviews the state of GHG emissions forecasting methods for project-level development. We argue that when forecasting changes in regional emissions it is important to make explicit what is assumed about a project′s effect on the population of residents and businesses in the region. We present five regional growth assumptions capturing the range of ways that project-level development might influence (i) construction and occupancy of similar developments elsewhere in a region and (ii) relocation of the initial activities that occur on-site before the project is built. We show that current forecasting tools inconsistently address the latter when they are interpreted as forecasted changes in regional emissions. Using a case study in Yolo County, California we demonstrate that forecasted changes in regional emissions are greatly affected by the regional growth assumption. In the absence of information about which regional growth assumption is accurate, we provide guidelines for selection of a conservative regional growth assumption. - Highlights: • Current tools inconsistently forecast GHG emissions from project-level development. • We outline five assumptions about how projects may affect regional growth. • Our assumptions capture a range of economic and population effects of projects. • Our case study shows that growth assumptions greatly affect regional GHG estimates. • We provide guidelines for selecting a conservative regional growth assumption

  8. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

    2014-08-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate

  9. Population Policy and the Changing Distribution of the U.S. Population--Implications for Teaching Population Geography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, Patricia

    The role of migration and of federal policy in population redistribution should be a central focus in population geography education. Although migration to the Sunbelt and the West has been a pattern since the 1950s, a significant trend has been noted only since the 1970s, when the birth rate dropped so much that natural increase could not…

  10. Forecasting Social Unrest Using Activity Cascades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadena, Jose; Korkmaz, Gizem; Kuhlman, Chris J; Marathe, Achla; Ramakrishnan, Naren; Vullikanti, Anil

    2015-01-01

    Social unrest is endemic in many societies, and recent news has drawn attention to happenings in Latin America, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Civilian populations mobilize, sometimes spontaneously and sometimes in an organized manner, to raise awareness of key issues or to demand changes in governing or other organizational structures. It is of key interest to social scientists and policy makers to forecast civil unrest using indicators observed on media such as Twitter, news, and blogs. We present an event forecasting model using a notion of activity cascades in Twitter (proposed by Gonzalez-Bailon et al., 2011) to predict the occurrence of protests in three countries of Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela. The basic assumption is that the emergence of a suitably detected activity cascade is a precursor or a surrogate to a real protest event that will happen "on the ground." Our model supports the theoretical characterization of large cascades using spectral properties and uses properties of detected cascades to forecast events. Experimental results on many datasets, including the recent June 2013 protests in Brazil, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

  11. Forecasting Social Unrest Using Activity Cascades.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Cadena

    Full Text Available Social unrest is endemic in many societies, and recent news has drawn attention to happenings in Latin America, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Civilian populations mobilize, sometimes spontaneously and sometimes in an organized manner, to raise awareness of key issues or to demand changes in governing or other organizational structures. It is of key interest to social scientists and policy makers to forecast civil unrest using indicators observed on media such as Twitter, news, and blogs. We present an event forecasting model using a notion of activity cascades in Twitter (proposed by Gonzalez-Bailon et al., 2011 to predict the occurrence of protests in three countries of Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela. The basic assumption is that the emergence of a suitably detected activity cascade is a precursor or a surrogate to a real protest event that will happen "on the ground." Our model supports the theoretical characterization of large cascades using spectral properties and uses properties of detected cascades to forecast events. Experimental results on many datasets, including the recent June 2013 protests in Brazil, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

  12. Pacific island health inequities forecast to grow unless profound changes are made to health systems in the region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matheson, Don; Park, Kunhee; Soakai, Taniela Sunia

    2017-10-01

    Objective Twenty years ago the Pacific's health ministers developed a 'Healthy Islands' vision to lead health development in the subregion. This paper reports on a review of health development over this period and discusses the implications for the attainment of the health related Sustainable Development Goals. Methods The review used qualitative and quantitative methods. The qualitative review included conducting semi-structured interviews with Pacific Island Government Ministers and officials, regional agencies, health workers and community members. A document review was also conducted. The quantitative review consisted of examining secondary data from regional and global data collections. Results The review found improvement in health indicators, but increasing health inequality between the Pacific and the rest of the world. Many of the larger island populations were unable to reach the health Millennium Development Goals. The 'Healthy Islands' vision remained an inspiration to health ministers and senior officials in the region. However, implementation of the 'Healthy Islands' approach was patchy, under-resourced and un-sustained. Communicable and Maternal and Child Health challenges persist alongside unprecedented levels of non-communicable diseases, inadequate levels of health finance and few skilled health workers as the major impediments to health development for many of the Pacific's countries. Conclusions The current trajectory for health in the Pacific will lead to increasing health inequity with the rest of the world. The challenges to health in the region include persisting communicable disease and maternal and child health threats, unprecedented levels of NCDs, climate change and instability, as well as low economic growth. In order to change the fortunes of this region in the age of the SDGs, a substantial investment in health is required, including in the health workforce, by countries and donors alike. That investment requires a nuanced response

  13. PETRA. The Forecast Model. Synthesis report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    The aim of the PETRA project was to develop a model that could recreate the main aspects involved in the demand for travel. The attainment of this objective requires that the model system should retain a high degree of detail and be based on disaggregate models. This was both to ensure an accurate representation of the underlying behavioural intentions, and allow analysis of the underlying travel demand and related aspects across a number of dimensions. This has been achieved in all main respects. The model system is capable of close reproduction of the observed behaviour and generally responds as expected to changes, exhibiting consistent and plausible reactions. The dis-aggregation of the forecast population, according to the various criteria, allows the model to clearly illustrates the behavioural differences between different population segments. Thus, it seems reasonable to conclude that PETRA is capable of detailed analyses of the distributional and behavioural effects of policy changes. (au) EFP-94. 20 refs.

  14. Uncertain Climate Forecasts From Multimodel Ensembles: When to Use Them and When to Ignore Them

    OpenAIRE

    Jewson, Stephen; Rowlands, Dan

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainty around multimodel ensemble forecasts of changes in future climate reduces the accuracy of those forecasts. For very uncertain forecasts this effect may mean that the forecasts should not be used. We investigate the use of the well-known Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to make the decision as to whether a forecast should be used or ignored.

  15. Consequences of habitat change and resource selection specialization for population limitation in cavity-nesting birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Thomas E.

    2015-01-01

    Resource selection specialization may increase vulnerability of populations to environmental change. One environmental change that may negatively impact some populations is the broad decline of quaking aspen Populus tremuloides, a preferred nest tree of cavity-nesting organisms who are commonly limited by nest-site availability. However, the long-term consequences of this habitat change for cavity-nesting bird populations are poorly studied.

  16. Changes in population structures of the major species in selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was carried out in six satellite lakes by making investigations on fish collected from experimental and artisanal fisheries. The fishes were analysed for length frequencies, weight and numbers caught to determine the population structure of the fishes. Indiscriminate fishing by deploying illegal gears and increased ...

  17. Bats track and exploit changes in insect pest populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    The role of bats or any generalist predator in suppressing prey populations depends on the predator’s ability to exploit available prey in space and time. Using a qPCR faecal DNA assay, we document significant association between numbers of Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis) consumin...

  18. Population growth, economic security, and cultural change in wilderness counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul A. Lorah

    2000-01-01

    A familiar version of the “jobs versus the environment” argument asserts that wilderness areas limit economic growth by locking up potentially productive natural resources. Analysis of the development paths of rural Western counties shows that this is unlikely: the presence of Wilderness is correlated with income, employment and population growth. Similarly, Wilderness...

  19. Novel methodology for pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aball?a, Samuel; R?muzat, C?cile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, ?sa; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective: The value appreciation of new drugs across countries today features a disruption that is making the historical data that are used for forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure poorly reliable. Forecasting methods rarely addressed uncertainty. The objective of this project was to propose a methodology to perform pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting that integrates expected policy changes and uncertainty (developed for the European Commission as the ‘EU Pharmaceutical e...

  20. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  1. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  2. Salmon Population Summary - Impacts of climate change on Pacific salmon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This work involves 1) synthesizing information from the literature and 2) modeling impacts of climate change on specific aspects of salmon life history and...

  3. Social Change and its Potential Impacts on Chinese Population Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang, Hong

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the past 25 years, China has experienced transformation of its economic system from a highly centralized planned economy toward a market oriented economic system. This process has led to massive and rapid changes in all aspects of society with profound effects on the population’s health in the large parts of the country. Along with the material prosperity, the living conditions of Chinese people, such as food, shelter, and sanitation status, have been improving steadily. People have more capability to purchase health related merchandise as well as health services. Overall the health status of most Chinese has improved but there are significant exceptions to this overall conclusion. These exceptions arise from increasing inequity of income, increases in unemployment rates, the decline of health insurance coverage, changes in demography, changes in social value, culture, health related behaviors, and the changes of health care systems.

  4. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  5. Can environmental improvement change the population distribution of walking?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panter, Jenna; Ogilvie, David

    2017-06-01

    Few studies have explored the impact of environmental change on walking using controlled comparisons. Even fewer have examined whose behaviour changes and how. In a natural experimental study of new walking and cycling infrastructure, we explored changes in walking, identified groups who changed in similar ways and assessed whether exposure to the infrastructure was associated with trajectories of walking. 1257 adults completed annual surveys assessing walking, sociodemographic and health characteristics and use of the infrastructure (2010-2012). Residential proximity to the new routes was assessed objectively. We used latent growth curve models to assess change in total walking, walking for recreation and for transport, used simple descriptive analysis and latent class analysis (LCA) to identify groups who changed in similar ways and examined factors associated with group membership using multinomial regression. LCA identified five trajectories, characterised by consistently low levels; consistently high levels; decreases; short-lived increases; and sustained increases. Those with lower levels of education and lower incomes were more likely to show both short-lived and sustained increases in walking for transport. However, those with lower levels of education were less likely to take up walking. Proximity to the intervention was associated with both uptake of and short-lived increases in walking for transport. Environmental improvement encouraged the less active to take up walking for transport, as well as encouraging those who were already active to walk more. Further research should disentangle the role of socioeconomic characteristics in determining use of new environments and changes in walking. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  6. Climate change: impact on honey bee populations and diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Conte, Y; Navajas, M

    2008-08-01

    The European honey bee, Apis mellifera, is the most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide. Bees are also crucial in maintaining biodiversity by pollinating numerous plant species whose fertilisation requires an obligatory pollinator. Apis mellifera is a species that has shown great adaptive potential, as it is found almost everywhere in the world and in highly diverse climates. In a context of climate change, the variability of the honey bee's life-history traits as regards temperature and the environment shows that the species possesses such plasticity and genetic variability that this could give rise to the selection of development cycles suited to new environmental conditions. Although we do not know the precise impact of potential environmental changes on honey bees as a result of climate change, there is a large body of data at our disposal indicating that environmental changes have a direct influence on honey bee development. In this article, the authors examine the potential impact of climate change on honey bee behaviour, physiology and distribution, as well as on the evolution of the honey bee's interaction with diseases. Conservation measures will be needed to prevent the loss of this rich genetic diversity of honey bees and to preserve ecotypes that are so valuable for world biodiversity.

  7. Changes in population characteristics and their implication on public health research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Ping; Coles, F Bruce; O'Campo, Patricia; McNutt, Louise-Anne

    2007-07-10

    Population estimates are generally drawn from one point in time to study disease trends over time; changes in population characteristics over time are usually not assessed and included in the study design. We evaluated whether population characteristics remained static and assessed the degree of population shifts over time. The analysis was based on the New York State 1990 and 2000 census data with adjustments for changes in geographic boundaries. Differences in census tract information were quantified by calculating the mean, median, standard deviation, and the percent of change for each population characteristic. Between 1990 and 2000, positive and negative fluctuations in population size created a U-shaped bimodal pattern of population change which increased the disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status for many census tracts. While 268 (10%) census tracts contracted by 10%, twice as many census tracts (21%, N = 557) grew at least 10%. Notably, the non-Hispanic African-American population grew 10% or more in 152 tracts. Although there were overall reductions in working class and undereducated populations and gains in incomes, most census tracts experienced growing income inequalities and an increased poverty rate. These changes were most pronounced in urban census tracts. Differences in population characteristics in a decade showed growing disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status. This study elucidates that important population shifts should be taken into account when conducting longitudinal research.

  8. Changes in atomic populations due to edge plasma fluctuations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammami, R., E-mail: ramzi.hammami@univ-provence.fr [PIIM, Aix-Marseille Université and CNRS, centre Saint Jérôme, Marseille 13397 (France); Capes, H. [PIIM, Aix-Marseille Université and CNRS, centre Saint Jérôme, Marseille 13397 (France); Catoire, F. [CELIA, Université de Bordeaux 1 and CNRS, Domaine du Haut Carré, Talence 33405 (France); Godbert-Mouret, L.; Koubiti, M.; Marandet, Y.; Mekkaoui, A.; Rosato, J.; Stamm, R. [PIIM, Aix-Marseille Université and CNRS, centre Saint Jérôme, Marseille 13397 (France)

    2013-07-15

    The population balance of atoms or ions in an edge plasma is calculated in the presence of fluctuating density or temperature. We have used a stochastic model taking advantage of the knowledge of the plasma parameter statistical properties, and assuming a stepwise constant stochastic process for the fluctuating variable. The model is applied to simplified atomic systems such as three level hydrogen atoms or the ionization balance of carbon affected by electronic temperature or density fluctuations obeying a gamma PDF, and an exponential waiting time distribution.

  9. Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn J. Roossinck

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  10. Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Gobal climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80?? N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However, when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

  11. Forecasting the impact of global changes on the water resources of a mountainous catchment in the Chilean Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruelland, D.; Campéon, C.; Dezetter, A.; Jourde, H.

    2012-04-01

    in a piezometer at the basin outlet are also in good agreement. The model thus provides encouraging simulations of groundwater and surface water dynamics when applied to various climatic conditions. Simulations are improved when a dam located in the upstream catchment is considered into the model. In contrast, integrating agricultural and domestic water withdrawals does not improve significantly the simulations. However, it allows assessing the ability of water resources to supply water demands by computing a water allocation index. The climatic scenarios forecast an increase in temperature of about 1-2°C and a 20-30% reduction in precipitation by the 2050 horizon. According to the hydrological simulations, the mean annual discharge of the upper Elqui River may decline by 30-40%, and the seasonal peak flow would occur earlier than in current conditions. As a result, the agricultural demands (90% of the water uses) may not be always satisfied, especially during the summer season, as shown by the future trends in the water allocation index. This calls for evaluating the efficiency of adaptation strategies consisting in an improvement of the irrigation system and of water management, which is the subject of ongoing research.

  12. Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouska, Kristen; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Lant, Christopher; Schoof, Justin

    2018-01-01

    Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

  13. Environmental variation and population responses to global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lawson, Callum R.; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-01-01

    Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in

  14. Impact of weight change on albuminuria in the general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bello, Aminu K.; de Zeeuw, Dick; El Nahas, Meguid; Brantsma, Auke H.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; de Jong, Paul E.; Gansevoort, Ronald T.

    Background. Increased levels of albuminuria have been recognized as a feature of obesity and the metabolic syndrome, and to be associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular and renal disease. The impact of weight change on albuminuria and its possible mechanism has not been studied yet in the

  15. Assisted migration of forest populations for adapting trees to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero; Roberto A. Lindig-Cisneros; Dennis G. Joyce; Jean Beaulieu; J. Bradley St. Clair; Barry C. Jaquish

    2016-01-01

    We present evidence that climatic change is an ongoing process and that forest tree populations are genetically differentiated for quantitative traits because of adaptation to specific habitats. We discuss in detail indications that the shift of suitable climatic habitat for forest tree species and populations, as a result of rapid climatic change, is likely to cause...

  16. Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah. Peery

    2013-01-01

    Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

  17. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a ...

  18. [Population resettlement and women's changing roles in the Sahel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, D O

    1992-01-01

    For many decision makers in the Sahel, relocating populations from poor, over-populated regions to relatively fertile zones regulated by the state seemed the best approach to improving women's conditions, particularly in household affairs. In the original territories, women have their personal fields where they raise vegetables and other products which they sell to secure their own income. During the dry season, they engage in other activities for money (e.g., production and sale of millet beer and sale of pottery). Women have relative economic autonomy. Within the family household and in villages, they isolate themselves in their own spaces (e.g., kitchen and wells) and discuss their specific problems. In government-controlled zones where families resettle, the families are supposed to plant the same varieties of imposed cultivation (e.g., rice) judged to be more productive. They must sow, plow, and harvest using the same techniques. All activities are controlled. Women have no decision power and must submit to the logic of the chief of agricultural production. They no longer have time to dedicate themselves to individual economic activity (especially in irrigated zones, where there are two annual plantings), or to assure a good education for their children. They have little time to dedicate to hygiene and nutrition. These government-controlled agricultural zones have established an exploitation model that contributes to the socioeconomic destabilization of families. The retreat of women's economic power is often accompanied by degradation of family well-being. Agricultural development schemes that involve agricultural migrations have marginalized women even more than they were before resettlement in spite of improvement in family income. It is narrowly linked to short-term development. In conclusion, agricultural resettlement schemes do not improve the status of women.

  19. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  20. Microbial population changes during bioremediation of an experimental oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venosa, A.D.; Stephen, J.R.; Macnaughton, S.J.; Chang, Y.; White, D.C.

    2000-01-01

    Three crude oil bioremediation techniques were tested in a field experiment in Delaware, United States to determine the progress of natural and accelerated attenuation during a controlled oil spill. The four treatments studied were: no oil control, oil alone, oil plus nutrients, and oil plus nutrients plus an indigenous inoculum. During the first 14 weeks, microbial numbers were high but were steadily declining with no major differences among treatments. However, after the 14 week period, phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) results showed that the communities shifted from being composed mostly of eukaryotes to gram-negative bacteria. The dominant species diversity changed and increased significantly over 14 weeks. Nutrient addition and the addition of the indigenous inoculum altered the nature of this change. Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry analyses of the oil analytes detected major differences in rates of biodegradation between the amended and unamended natural attenuation plots, but not between the nutrient and inoculum plots. 11 refs., 3 figs

  1. Issue 7: Museum Attendance, Population Shifts, and Changing Tastes

    OpenAIRE

    Haselhoff, Kim; Ong, Paul M.

    2005-01-01

    SCS Fact Sheet no. 7 looks at the extent to which Southern California residents attend art and cultural museums. The findings are consistent with other studies, which have found differences in museum attendance based on ethnic and socioeconomic characteristics. We also found similarities in the general rate of museum attendance in the region over the past twenty years, as well as some changes in attendance rates among groups over the past two decades.

  2. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin V. Remais

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF 3.2.1 baseline/current (2001–2004 and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059 climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate.

  3. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

  4. A Forecast Model for Unemployment by Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tranæs, Torben; Larsen, Anders Holm; Groes, Niels

    1994-01-01

    We present a dynamic forecast model for the labour market: demand for labour by education and the distribution of labour by education among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously. The model is derived from a simple behavioural equation based on a ...... for educational groups, where the initial forecast year is a change point for unemployment....

  5. Forecasting Costa Rican Quarterly Growth with Mixed-frequency Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adolfo Rodríguez Vargas

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We assess the utility of mixed-frequency models to forecast the quarterly growth rate of Costa Rican real GDP: we estimate bridge and MiDaS models with several lag lengths using information of the IMAE and compute forecasts (horizons of 0-4 quarters which are compared between themselves, with those of ARIMA models and with those resulting from forecast combinations. Combining the most accurate forecasts is most useful when forecasting in real time, whereas MiDaS forecasts are the best-performing overall: as the forecasting horizon increases, their precisionis affected relatively little; their success rates in predicting the direction of changes in the growth rate are stable, and several forecastsremain unbiased. In particular, forecasts computed from simple MiDaS with 9 and 12 lags are unbiased at all horizons and information sets assessed, and show the highest number of significant differences in forecasting ability in comparison with all other models.

  6. Climate change and population health in Africa: where are the scientists?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byass, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Despite a growing awareness of Africans’ vulnerability to climate change, there is relatively little empirical evidence published about the effects of climate on population health in Africa. This review brings together some of the generalised predictions about the potential continent-wide effects of climate change with examples of the relatively few locally documented population studies in which climate change and health interact. Although ecologically determined diseases such as malaria are obvious candidates for susceptibility to climate change, wider health effects also need to be considered, particularly among populations where adequacy of food and water supplies may already be marginal. PMID:20052421

  7. The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978-2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu Qin, E-mail: zhuqin@fudan.edu.cn; Peng Xizhe, E-mail: xzpeng@fudan.edu.cn

    2012-09-15

    This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects on carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.

  8. The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978–2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Qin; Peng Xizhe

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects on carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: ► We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. ► We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. ► The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. ► The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. ► The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.

  9. Course of change in economic and social environment associated with energy. Population, life, industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimatsu, Michio

    1988-03-01

    As regards long-term forecast of economic and social environment in Japan, STANDARD economic and social vision based on the course of economical growth was adopted in the report of LONG-TERM VISION OF ENERGY INDUSTRY. The average annual economic growth rate is expected to be still a little higher than the average of that of the developed countries, being supported by the industiral activities by industries engaged in frontier science, manufacturing industries engaged in electrical processing and assembling, etc. In the primary and secondary industries, the number of employees may drop down to about one third. Tokyo may become the center of finance and information surpassing New York and London. The people may enjoy a rich, confortable and cultural life. Problems may arise from enhancement of individualism, increase in advanced aged population, acturization of regional differentials, etc. (3 figs, 3 tabs)

  10. Sustainable Water Resources for Communities under Climate Change: Can State-of-the-Art Forecasting Inform Decision-Making in Data Sparse Regions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, A.; Vivoni, E.; Halvorsen, K.; Robles-Morua, A.; Dana, K.; Che, D.; Mirchi, A.; Kossak, D.; Casteneda, M.

    2013-05-01

    In this project, we are studying decision-making for water resources management in anticipation of climate change in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico as a case study for the broader arid and semiarid southwestern North America. The goal of the proposed project is to determine whether water resources systems modeling, developed within a participatory framework, can contribute to the building of management strategies in a context of water scarcity, conflicting water uses and highly variable and changing climate conditions. The participatory modeling approach will be conducted through a series of three workshops, designed to encourage substantive participation from a broad range of actors, including representatives from federal and local government agencies, water use sectors, non-governmental organizations, and academics. Participants will guide the design of supply- and demand-side management strategies and selection of climate change and infrastructure management scenarios using state-of-the-art engineering tools. These tools include a water resources systems framework, a spatially-explicit hydrologic model, the use of forecasted climate scenarios under 21st century climate change, and observations obtained from field and satellite sensors. Through the theory of planned behavior, the participatory modeling process will be evaluated to understand if, and to what extent, the engineering tools are useful in the uncertain and politically-complex setting. Pre- and post-workshop surveys will be used in this evaluation. For this contribution, we present the results of the first collaborative modeling workshop that will be held in March 2013, where we will develop the initial modeling framework in collaboration with workshop participants.

  11. Scoping the Impact of Changes in Population Age-Structure on the Future Burden of Foodborne Disease in The Netherlands, 2020–2060

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arie H. Havelaar

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella, 51 (Campylobacter, 1.1 (hepatitis A virus and 2.1 (Toxoplasma. For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates.

  12. Forecasting hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico: model accuracy, precision, and sensitivity to ecosystem change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, Mary Anne; Scavia, Donald

    2011-01-01

    Increasing use of ecological models for management and policy requires robust evaluation of model precision, accuracy, and sensitivity to ecosystem change. We conducted such an evaluation of hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico and Chesapeake Bay using hindcasts of historical data, comparing several approaches to model calibration. For both systems we find that model sensitivity and precision can be optimized and model accuracy maintained within reasonable bounds by calibrating the model to relatively short, recent 3 year datasets. Model accuracy was higher for Chesapeake Bay than for the Gulf of Mexico, potentially indicating the greater importance of unmodeled processes in the latter system. Retrospective analyses demonstrate both directional and variable changes in sensitivity of hypoxia to nutrient loads.

  13. Forecasting the evolution in the mixing regime of a deep subalpine lake under climate change scenarios through numerical modelling (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Sibilla, Stefano; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions. These oligomictic lakes are experiencing a decrease in the frequency of winter full turnover and an intensification of stability. As a result, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations are decreasing and nutrients are accumulating in bottom water, with effects on the whole ecosystem functioning. Forecasting the future evolution of the mixing pattern is relevant to assess if a reduction in GHG releases would be able to revert such processes. The study focuses on Lake Maggiore, for which the thermal structure evolution under climate change in the 2016-2085 period was assessed through numerical simulations, performed with the General Lake Model (GLM). Different prospects of regional air temperature rise were considered, given by the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario to obtain robust statistical predictions, adopting random series of meteorological data produced with the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG). Results show that a reversion in the increasing thermal stability would be possible only if global GHG emissions started to be reduced by 2020, allowing an equilibrium mixing regime to be restored by the end of the twenty-first century. Otherwise, persistent lack of complete-mixing, severe water warming and extensive effects on water quality are to be expected for the centuries to come. These projections can be extended to the other lakes in the subalpine district.

  14. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  15. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  16. The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

    2016-07-12

    To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright

  17. Ensemble forecast spread induced by soil moisture changes over mid-south and neighbouring mid-western region of the USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo I. Quintanar

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the potential impact of soil moisture perturbations on the statistical spread of an ensemble forecast for three different synoptic events during the summer of 2006. Soil moisture was perturbed from a control simulation to generate a 12 member ensemble with six drier and six moister soils. The impacts on the near-surface atmospheric conditions and on precipitation were analysed. It was found, as previous studies have confirmed, that soil moisture can change the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and of the overlying circulation. It was found that regardless of the conditions in synoptic forcing, temperature, relative humidity and horizontal wind field exhibited a spatial correlation coefficient (R close to one with respect to the control simulation. Vertical velocity, however, showed a marked decrease in R down to 0.4 as the precipitation activity increased. For vertical velocity, however, this quantity grew to near 1.0 consistent with R near zero and standard deviations very close to that of the control. These results suggested a more complex picture in which soil moisture perturbations played a major role in modifying precipitation and the near-surface circulation but did not broaden the statistical spread of trajectories in phase space of all variables.

  18. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford's experience within the last six years. Hanford's forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford's annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford's forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data

  19. Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jezkova, Tereza

    2016-01-01

    Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change. PMID:27881748

  20. Linking highway improvements to changes in land use with quasi-experimental research design : a better forecasting tool for transportation decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    An important issue for future improvement and extensions of highways will be the ability of projects to sustain challenges to Environmental Impact Statements based upon forecasts of regional growth. A legal precedent for such challenges was establish...

  1. Using ensemble forecasting to examine how climate change promotes worldwide invasion of the golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Juncheng; Chen, Lian; Li, Hong

    2017-08-01

    The golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, is one of the world's 100 most notorious invasive alien species. Knowledge about the critical climate variables that limit the global distribution range of the snail, as well as predictions of future species distributions under climate change, is very helpful for management of snail. In this study, the climatically suitable habitats for this kind of snail under current climate conditions were modeled by biomod2 and projected to eight future climate scenarios (2 time periods [2050s, 2080s] × 2 Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP8.5] × 2 atmospheric General Circulation Models [GCMs; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)]). The results suggest that the lowest temperature of coldest month is the critical climate variable to restrict the global distribution range of P. canaliculata. It is predicted that the climatically suitable habitats for P. canaliculata will increase by an average of 3.3% in 2050s and 3.8% in 2080s for the RCP2.6 scenario, while they increase by an average of 8.7% in 2050s and 10.3% in 2080s for the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, climate change in the future may promote the global invasion of the invasive species. Therefore, it is necessary to take proactive measures to monitor and preclude the invasion of this species.

  2. Population-level impact of Zimbabwe's National Behavioural Change Programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzdugan, Raluca; Benedikt, Clemens; Langhaug, Lisa; Copas, Andrew; Mundida, Oscar; Mugurungi, Owen; Watadzaushe, Constancia; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Tambashe, Basile O; Chidiya, Samson; Woelk, Godfrey; Cowan, Frances M

    2014-12-15

    To assess the impact of Zimbabwe's National Behavioural Change Programme (NBCP) on biological and behavioral outcomes. Representative household biobehavioral surveys of 18- to 44-year-olds were conducted in randomly selected enumeration areas in 2007 and 2011 to 2012. We examined program impact on HIV prevalence among young women, nonregular partnerships, condom use with nonregular partners, and HIV testing, distinguishing between highly exposed and low-exposed communities and individuals. We conducted (1) difference-in-differences analyses with communities as unit of analysis and (2) analyses of key outcomes by individual-level program exposure. Four thousand seven hundred seventy-six people were recruited in 2007 and 10,059 in 2011 to 2012. We found high exposure to NBCP in 2011. Prevalence of HIV and reported risky behaviors declined between 2007 and 2011. Community-level analyses showed a smaller decline in HIV prevalence among young women in highly exposed areas (11.0%-10.1%) than low-exposed areas (16.9%-10.3%, P = 0.078). Among young men, uptake of nonregular partners declined more in highly exposed areas (25%-16.8%) than low-exposed areas (21.9%-20.7%, P = 0.055) and HIV testing increased (27.2%-46.1% vs. 31.0%-34.4%, P = 0.004). Individual-level analyses showed higher reported condom use with nonregular partners among highly exposed young women (53% vs. 21% of unexposed counterparts, P = 0.037). We conducted the first impact evaluation of a NBCP and found positive effects of program exposure on key behaviors among certain gender and age groups. HIV prevalence among young women declined but could not be attributed to program exposure. These findings suggest substantial program effects regarding demand creation and justify program expansion.

  3. Elevational shifts in thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara J. Bentz; Jacob P. Duncan; James A. Powell

    2016-01-01

    Future forests are being shaped by changing climate and disturbances. Climate change is causing large-scale forest declines globally, in addition to distributional shifts of many tree species. Because environmental cues dictate insect seasonality and population success, climate change is also influencing tree-killing bark beetles. The mountain pine beetle,...

  4. Climate change and potential impacts on bristol bay sockeye salmon populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scientific research has shown that climate change has already caused detectable changes to ecosystems throughout Alaska. As warming is predicted to continue, it is likely to lead to changes in marine and freshwater aquatic ecosystems and impact sockeye salmon populations in Brist...

  5. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  6. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  7. Comparison of Three Plot Selection Methods for Estimating Change in Temporally Variable, Spatially Clustered Populations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, William L. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (US). Environment, Fish and Wildlife

    2001-07-01

    Monitoring population numbers is important for assessing trends and meeting various legislative mandates. However, sampling across time introduces a temporal aspect to survey design in addition to the spatial one. For instance, a sample that is initially representative may lose this attribute if there is a shift in numbers and/or spatial distribution in the underlying population that is not reflected in later sampled plots. Plot selection methods that account for this temporal variability will produce the best trend estimates. Consequently, I used simulation to compare bias and relative precision of estimates of population change among stratified and unstratified sampling designs based on permanent, temporary, and partial replacement plots under varying levels of spatial clustering, density, and temporal shifting of populations. Permanent plots produced more precise estimates of change than temporary plots across all factors. Further, permanent plots performed better than partial replacement plots except for high density (5 and 10 individuals per plot) and 25% - 50% shifts in the population. Stratified designs always produced less precise estimates of population change for all three plot selection methods, and often produced biased change estimates and greatly inflated variance estimates under sampling with partial replacement. Hence, stratification that remains fixed across time should be avoided when monitoring populations that are likely to exhibit large changes in numbers and/or spatial distribution during the study period. Key words: bias; change estimation; monitoring; permanent plots; relative precision; sampling with partial replacement; temporary plots.

  8. Science implementation of Forecast Mekong for food and environmental security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2012-01-01

    Forecast Mekong is a significant international thrust under the Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was launched in 2009 by the U.S. Department of State and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam under U.S. Department of State Secretary Hillary R. Clinton's Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Since 2009, the USGS has worked closely with the U.S. Department of State; personnel from Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam; nongovernmental organizations; and academia to collect and use research and data from the Lower Mekong River Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decisionmakers in future planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the Lower Mekong River Basin. In 2012 Forecast Mekong is highlighting the increasing cooperation between the United States and Lower Mekong River Basin countries in the areas of food and environmental security. Under the DRAGON, Forecast Mekong continues work in interactive data integration, modeling, and visualization system by initiating three-dimensional bathymetry and river flow data along with a pilot study of fish distribution, population, and migratory patterns in the Lower Mekong River Basin. When fully developed by the USGS, in partnership with local governments and universities throughout the Mekong River region, Forecast Mekong will provide valuable planning tools to visualize the consequences of climate change and river management.

  9. Geospatial Analysis Application to Forecast Wildfire Occurrences in South Carolina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen L. Sperry

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Wildfire occurrence and intensity have increased over the last few decades and, at times, have been national news. Wildfire occurrence is somewhat predictable based on physical factors like meteorological conditions, fuel loads, and vegetation dynamics. Socioeconomic factors have been not been widely used in wildfire occurrence models. We used a geospatial (or geographical information system analysis approach to identify socioeconomic variables that contribute to wildfire occurrence. Key variables considered were population change, population density, poverty rate, educational level, geographic mobility, and road density (transportation network. Hot spot analysis was the primary research tool. Wildfire occurrence seemed to be positively related to low population densities, low levels of population change, high poverty rate, low educational attainment level, and low road density. Obviously, some of these variables are correlated and this is a complex problem. However, socioeconomic variables appeared to contribute to wildfire occurrence and should be considered in development of wildfire occurrence forecasting models.

  10. A hindcast and forecast of management of agricultural nutrient losses in Denmark: a change in paradigm (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    kronvang, B.; Blicher-Mathiesen, G.; Windolf, J.; Grant, R.

    2013-12-01

    Four major Action Plans on the Aquatic Environment have been implemented in Denmark since 1987 with the aim to reduce by 50% the nitrogen (N) loading and by 80% the phosphorus (P) loading to the aquatic environment. At the same time the Danish National Aquatic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (NOVA) was launched with the aim to follow the effects of the obligatory implemented management strategies in Danish agriculture. Monitoring of the effects took place in 5 small agricultural catchments in soil water, groundwater and surface waters with annual interviews of farmers practices at field level as well as a general monitoring of nutrient concentrations in groundwater, streams, rivers, lakes and estuaries all over Denmark. Considerable changes in agricultural practice (storage of slurry, ban on slurry spreading in autumn and winter, strict requirements to N-use in animal manure, N-norms to all crops to be fixed to 10% below economic optimum, etc.) have resulted in a reduction of the net N-surplus from 136 to 75 kg N ha-1 yr-1 (45%) and the net P-surplus from 19 to around 0 kg P ha-1 yr-1 (100%) during the period 1985-2011..Twenty-five years of experience gathered from NOVA have shown that the losses of total N (TN) and total P (TP) to the marine environment from both point sources and diffuse sources has decreased with 50% and 50%, respectively. The reduction in TN losses alone amounts to 40%, whereas no general reduction in TP from diffuse losses can be detected. Despite the great efforts in improving the management of N and P in Danish agriculture the sector is today still the major source of both N (80%) and P (50%) in Danish streams, lakes and coastal waters. The ecological conditions in Danish streams, lakes and estuaries are still below the at least good ecological quality required by the EU Water Framework Directive adopted in year 2000. As global demand for food is increasing the Danish Government last year initiated a commission to publish a white book on

  11. Can energy forecasts be improved?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.; Alban, P.

    2000-01-01

    Within the present day context of energy, characterized by the gap between short term trends and long term risks, forecasting takes on particular interest. We based our study on the evaluation of the results of some of these long term (2020) and very long term (2050) forecasts. This article looks at the overall demand for energy, whereas the evolution of each primary energy will be handled in a future article. We are restricting our analysis to a global level despite the inherent limitations of such a choice. Our approach mainly concentrates on the dynamics of the phenomena. Thus, we have noticed a simultaneous slowing down since the 1960's of the demography, economy and energy. The revenue and energy consumption per capita do not elude this tendency. At the same time, energy production leads a steep downward tendency. All in all, the forecasts have a tendency to conflict more or less with these changes. In the majority of the scenarios the anticipated rhythms of economic change and energy consumption would indicate a sudden and abrupt inverse of current dynamics. We have noticed that the single use of the average annual rate of change is insufficient to clearly present the long term tendencies that follow curved and not linear paths. Diagnostic errors made in past analyses are likely to affect the models for forecasting, for which the inferred dynamics have not been fully apprehended

  12. Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syazreen Shair

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Coherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee–Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-specific mortality data for Australia and Malaysia and age-gender-ethnicity-specific data for Malaysia. The out-of-sample forecast error of log death rates, male-to-female death rate ratios and life expectancy at birth from each model are compared and examined across groups. The results show that, in terms of overall accuracy, the forecasts of both coherent models are consistently more accurate than those of the independent models for Australia and for Malaysia, but the relative performance differs by forecast horizon. Although the product-ratio functional model outperforms the Poisson common factor model for Australia, the Poisson common factor is more accurate for Malaysia. For the ethnic groups application, ethnic-coherence gives better results than gender-coherence. The results provide evidence that coherent models are preferable to independent models for forecasting sub-populations’ mortality.

  13. LOCAL POPULATION CHANGE AND VARIATIONS IN RACIAL INTEGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellman, Benjamin; Spielman, Seth E; Franklin, Rachel S

    2018-03-01

    While population growth has been consistently tied to decreasing racial segregation at the metropolitan level in the United States, little work has been done to relate small-scale changes in population size to integration. We address this question through a novel technique that tracks population changes by race and ethnicity for comparable geographies in both 2000 and 2010. Using the Theil Index, we analyze the fifty most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 2010 for changes in multigroup segregation. We classify local areas by their net population change between 2000 and 2010 using a novel unit of analysis based on aggregating census blocks. We find strong evidence that growing parts of rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the United States are crucial to understanding regional differences in segregation that have emerged in past decades. Multigroup segregation declined the most in growing parts of growing metropolitan areas. Comparatively, growing parts of shrinking or stagnant metropolitan areas were less diverse and had smaller declines in segregation. We also find that local areas with shrinking populations had disproportionately high minority representation in 2000 before population loss took place. We conclude that the regional context of population growth or decline has important consequences for the residential mixing of racial groups.

  14. Population Change Due to Migration in Non-Metropolitan Counties of the Northeast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadden, Kenneth P.

    This paper compared the effects of three hypothesized determinants of population change due to migration in 207 nonmetropolitan counties in northeastern United States: (1) the population's socioeconomic status; (2) functional differentiation of community activities; and (3) linkages relating the local, regional, and national economics. Data were…

  15. Changes in Student Populations and Average Test Scores of Dutch Primary Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luyten, Hans; de Wolf, Inge

    2011-01-01

    This article focuses on the relation between student population characteristics and average test scores per school in the final grade of primary education from a dynamic perspective. Aggregated data of over 5,000 Dutch primary schools covering a 6-year period were used to study the relation between changes in school populations and shifts in mean…

  16. Population dynamics under increasing environmental variability: implications of climate change for ecological network design criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verboom, J.; Schippers, P.; Cormont, A.; Sterk, M.; Vos, C.C.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for plant and animal populations. This increase in variation, e.g. amplified inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall has population dynamical consequences because it raises the variation in vital

  17. Using Population Data to Address the Human Dimensions of Environmental Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.M. Mageean; J.G. Bartlett

    1999-01-01

    In recent years researchers and policy makers have identified population-environment interactions as crucial to issues of ecology, economic development, and human welfare. It seems clear that human populations and demands on the environment are driving ecological change in such areas as global warming, ozone depletion, deforestation, biodiversity loss, land degradation...

  18. Patterns of change in timing of spring migration in North European songbird populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tøttrup, Anders Peter; Thorup, Kasper; Rahbek, Carsten

    2006-01-01

    From 1976 to 1997 passerines were mist-netted and ringed on the island of Christiansø, in the Baltic Sea. Here we present analyses of phenological changes (i.e. time of arrival) for 25 species based on the entire populations of mist-netted songbirds during spring migration. We used two approaches...... to be important for our understanding of population-dynamic changes in relation to climate change. These differences may also have long-term evolutionary consequences. Migration distance seems to affect the degree of change in arrival time, but we found no difference between species wintering in different regions...... of Africa....

  19. Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

    2007-12-04

    Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

  20. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-01-01

    This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic me...