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Sample records for floods case northeastern

  1. Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Impact of Flash Flooding on the Rice Production: A Case Study over Northeastern Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M Razu; Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Kok, Aaron; Hassan, Quazi K

    2017-10-14

    The northeastern region of Bangladesh often experiences flash flooding during the pre-harvesting period of the boro rice crop, which is the major cereal crop in the country. In this study, our objective was to delineate the impact of the 2017 flash flood (that initiated on 27 March 2017) on boro rice using multi-temporal Landsat-8 OLI and MODIS data. Initially, we opted to use Landsat-8 OLI data for mapping the damages; however, during and after the flooding event the acquisition of cloud free images were challenging. Thus, we used this data to map the cultivated boro rice acreage considering the planting to mature stages of the crop. Also, in order to map the extent of the damaged boro area, we utilized MODIS data as their 16-day composites provided cloud free information. Our results indicated that both the cultivated and damaged boro area estimates based on satellite data had strong relationships while compared to the ground-based estimates (i.e., r ² values approximately 0.92 for both cases, and RMSE of 18,374 and 9380 ha for cultivated and damaged areas, respectively). Finally, we believe that our study would be critical for planning and ensuring food security for the country.

  2. A hydrological perspective of the February 2000 floods : a case ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The exceptionally heavy rains which fell over the north-eastern parts of South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe during February 2000 resulted in disastrous flooding, loss of hundreds of lives and severe damage to infrastructure. The objective of the study reported in this paper is to assess the severity, from a probabilistic ...

  3. Flood analysis using HEC-RAS model: a case study for Hafr Al-Batin, Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al-Zahrani Muhammad

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Hafr Al-Batin is a Saudi Arabian city located in the northeastern part of the kingdom. The city lies in the dry valley of Wadi Al-Batin, part of Wadi Al-Rummah, which leads inland towards Medina and formerly emptied into the Arabian Gulf. Hafr Al-Batin is located in an area where three valleys meet, which makes the city under high risk of flooding, especially when intense rain occurs during short duration as in the case of arid and semi-arid regions. The yearly average rainfall intensity of Hafr Al-Baten is estimated to be 125 mm. Recently, extreme rainfall events occurred, generating flood water to flow from all valleys towards the city, causing serious damage to public and private properties. In this study, HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models are used to simulate flood occurrence in the city. The results indicate that the average flow depths within the part of the main channel passing through Hafr Al-Batin city were 3.02 m, 3.26 m, 3.45 m, 3.76 m, 4.04 m and 4.34 m for the simulated 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100-year design floods, respectively. Flood hazard maps are also generated to identify the areas within the city with high risk of flooding.

  4. Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuparu, Dana; Bachmann, Daniel; Bogaard, Tom; Twigt, Daniel; Verkade, Jan; de Bruijn, Karin; de Leeuw, Annemargreet

    2017-04-01

    Flood forecasts, warning and emergency response are important components in flood risk management. Most flood forecasting systems use models to translate weather predictions to forecasted discharges or water levels. However, this information is often not sufficient for real time decisions. A sound understanding of the reliability of embankments and flood dynamics is needed to react timely and reduce the negative effects of the flood. Where are the weak points in the dike system? When, how much and where the water will flow? When and where is the greatest impact expected? Model-based flood impact forecasting tries to answer these questions by adding new dimensions to the existing forecasting systems by providing forecasted information about: (a) the dike strength during the event (reliability), (b) the flood extent in case of an overflow or a dike failure (flood spread) and (c) the assets at risk (impacts). This work presents three study-cases in which such a set-up is applied. Special features are highlighted. Forecasting of dike strength. The first study-case focusses on the forecast of dike strength in the Netherlands for the river Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn and IJssel. A so-called reliability transformation is used to translate the predicted water levels at selected dike sections into failure probabilities during a flood event. The reliability of a dike section is defined by fragility curves - a summary of the dike strength conditional to the water level. The reliability information enhances the emergency management and inspections of embankments. Ensemble forecasting. The second study-case shows the setup of a flood impact forecasting system in Dumfries, Scotland. The existing forecasting system is extended with a 2D flood spreading model in combination with the Delft-FIAT impact model. Ensemble forecasts are used to make use of the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts, which is useful to quantify the certainty of a forecasted flood event. From global

  5. Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

    2017-04-01

    Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

  6. Urban flood mitigation planning for Guwahati: A case of Bharalu basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmah, Tanaya; Das, Sutapa

    2018-01-15

    Guwahati, the capital city of Assam and the gateway to the seven north-eastern Indian states, is located in the Brahmaputra valley-one of the most flood prone regions of the world. The city receives an average annual rainfall of 1688 mm and is highly vulnerable towards frequent urban floods because of uncontrolled dumping of solid waste and siltation have choked the natural water channels. This coupled with the absence of an integrated drainage network and rapid urbanisation causes floods in many parts of the city, after a quick downpour. Bharalu river is the main natural water channel of the city and Bharalu basin is the most vulnerable one. The present paper is an attempt to plan for urban flood mitigation, by designing an integrated drainage network for the Bharalu basin which includes the low-lying urbanized areas bordered by the Guwahati-Shillong Road, the Radha Gobindo Baruah Road and the Rajgarh Road. Data regarding land use, flood level, rainfall, urban pattern and vulnerability towards urban flood were collected from available literature, field survey to find highest water level for 11.4 km road stretch, expert opinion survey from 18 experts and feedback from 77 community elders who have been residing in the city since the 1980s. The Bharalu basin is divided into seven drainage blocks and storm run-off has been calculated based on the inputs. Seven different trapezoidal drainage sections were designed to form an integrated drainage network which is 'self-healing' to a certain extent. This can serve as a template for the other catchment basins and to design a drainage network for the entire Guwahati city, thereby reducing urban flood hazard to a significant extent. The study illustrates the necessity of an urban flood mitigation planning approach in sub-Himalayan urban settlements such as Guwahati. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Evolution of the vulnerability to phenomena associated with landslides and floods. Case northeastern Medellin, 1960 -1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidal G, Lina Maria

    2008-01-01

    This paper is about evolution of vulnerability to hazards related to landslides and floods in Northeast of Medellin between 1960 y 1990, connecting urban planning and politics for informal settlements with land occupation processes which have influenced forming of urban vulnerable communities. Case study analysis shows that vulnerability conditions moved following land occupation trajectories and city expansion according to intrinsic adaptation characteristics of settlement inhabitants to environmental conditions, regional processes and dynamics influenced by city politics. Due to accumulation of vulnerability it is interpreted as an environmental impact of processes that influence its configuration which is not static spatial or temporarily neither it correspond to a cause-effect approach but it is complex and connected to other urban environmental expressions

  8. Chemical composition and antioxidant activity of geopropolis produced by Melipona fasciculata (Meliponinae) in flooded fields and cerrado areas of Maranhão State, northeastern Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    BATISTA,Marisa Cristina Aranha; ABREU,Bruno Vinicius de Barros; DUTRA,Richard Pereira; CUNHA,Mayara Soares; AMARAL,Flavia Maria Mendonça do; TORRES,Luce Maria Brandão; RIBEIRO,Maria Nilce de Sousa

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Geopropolis, a mixture of plant resin, wax, soil and salivary secretion, is produced by the stingless bee Melipona fasciculata. This aim of this study was to investigate the chemical composition and antioxidant activity of geopropolis collected from beehives in two phytogeographical regions, flooded fields and cerrado, in the municipalities of Palmeirândia and Fernando Falcão, Maranhão State, northeastern Brazil. The geopropolis compounds were identified by gas chromatography-mass sp...

  9. The use of a flood index to characterise flooding in the north-eastern region of Bangladesh

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    Bhattacharya B.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding in the Haor region in the north-east of Bangladesh is presented in this paper. A haor is a saucershaped depression, which is used during the dry period (Dec to mid-May for agriculture and as a fishery during the wet period (Jun-Nov. Pre-monsoon flooding till mid-May causes agricultural loss. The area is bordering India, and is fed by some flashy Indian catchments. The area is drained mainly by the Surma-Kushiyara river system. The terrain generally is flat and the flashy characteristics die out within a short distance from the border. Limited studies on the region, particularly with the help of numerical models, have been carried out in the past. Therefore, an objective of the current research was to set up numerical models capable of reasonably emulating the physical system. Such models could, for example, associate different gauges to the spatio-temporal variation of hydrodynamic variables and help in carrying out a systemic study on the flood propagation. A 1D2D model, with one-dimensional model for the rivers (based on MIKE 11 from DHI and a two-dimensional model for the haors (based on MIKE 21 from DHI were developed. In order to characterize flooding in the large area a flood index is proposed, which is computed based on the hydrograph characteristics such as the rising curve gradient, flood magnitude ratio and time to peak. The index was used in characterising flooding in the Haor region. In general, two groups of rivers were identified. The study enabled identifying the hot-spots in the study area with risks from flooding.

  10. Evolving flood patterns in a Mediterranean region (1301-2012) and climatic factors - the case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrera-Escoda, A.; Llasat, M. C.

    2015-01-01

    Data on flood occurrence and flood impacts for the last seven centuries in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula have been analysed in order to characterise long-term trends, anomalous periods and their relationship with different climatic factors such as precipitation, general circulation and solar activity. Catastrophic floods (those that produce complete or partial destruction of infrastructure close to the river, and major damages in the overflowed area, including some zones away from the channels) do not present a statistically significant trend, whereas extraordinary floods (the channel is overflowed and some punctual severe damages can be produced in the infrastructures placed in the rivercourse or near it, but usually damages are slight) have seen a significant rise, especially from 1850 on, and were responsible for the total increase in flooding in the region. This rise can be mainly attributed to small coastal catchments, which have experienced a marked increase in developed land and population, resulting in changes in land use and greater vulnerability. Changes in precipitation alone cannot explain the variation in flood patterns, although a certain increase was shown in late summer-early autumn, when extraordinary floods are most frequently recorded. The relationship between the North Atlantic circulation and floods is not as strong, due to the important role of mesoscale factors in heavy precipitation in the northwest of the Mediterranean region. However, it can explain the variance to some extent, mainly in relation to the catastrophic floods experienced during the autumn. Solar activity has some impact on changes in catastrophic floods, with cycles related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Gleissberg solar cycle. In addition, anomalous periods of high flood frequency in autumn generally occurred during periods of increased solar activity. The physical influence of the latter in general circulation patterns, the high troposphere and the

  11. Flood of August 24–25, 2016, Upper Iowa River and Turkey River, northeastern Iowa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linhart, S. Mike; O'Shea, Padraic S.

    2018-02-05

    Major flooding occurred August 24–25, 2016, in the Upper Iowa River Basin and Turkey River Basin in northeastern Iowa following severe thunderstorm activity over the region. About 8 inches of rain were recorded for the 24-hour period ending at 4 p.m., August 24, at Decorah, Iowa, and about 6 inches of rain were recorded for the 24-hour period ending at 7 a.m., August 24, at Cresco, Iowa, about 14 miles northwest of Spillville, Iowa. A maximum peak-of-record discharge of 38,000 cubic feet per second in the Upper Iowa River at streamgage 05388250 Upper Iowa River near Dorchester, Iowa, occurred on August 24, 2016, with an annual exceedance-probability range of 0.2–1 percent. High-water marks were measured at six locations along the Upper Iowa River between State Highway 26 near the mouth at the Mississippi River and State Highway 76 about 3.5 miles south of Dorchester, Iowa, a distance of 15 river miles. Along the profiled reach of the Turkey River, a maximum peak-of-record discharge of 15,300 cubic feet per second at streamgage 05411600 Turkey River at Spillville, Iowa, occurred on August 24, 2016, with an annual exceedance-probability range of 1–2 percent. A maximum peak discharge of 35,700 cubic feet per second occurred on August 25, 2016, along the profiled reach of the Turkey River at streamgage 05411850 Turkey River near Eldorado, Iowa, with an annual exceedance-probability range of 0.2–1 percent. High-water marks were measured at 11 locations along the Turkey River between County Road B64 in Elgin and 220th Street, located about 4.5 miles northwest of Spillville, Iowa, a distance of 58 river miles. The high-water marks were used to develop flood profiles for the Upper Iowa River and Turkey River.

  12. Urbanization and climate change implications in flood risk management: Developing an efficient decision support system for flood susceptibility mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Yew

    2018-04-26

    The effects of urbanization and climate change impact to the flood risk of two governorates in Egypt were analyzed. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to the annual rainfall, rainfall anomaly, and temperature anomaly of both study sites. Next, change points and trends of the annual and monthly surface runoff data generated by the Curve Number method over 1948-2014 were also analyzed to detect the effects of urbanization on the surface runoff. Lastly, a GIS decision support system was developed to delineate flood susceptibility zones for the two governorates. The significant decline in annual rainfall and rainfall anomaly after 1994 at 8.96 and 15.3 mm/decade respectively was likely due to climate change impact, especially significant warming trend since 1976 at 0.16 °C/decade, though that could partly be attributed to rapid urbanization. Since 1970, effects of urbanization to flood risk are clear, because despite a decline in rainfall, the annual surface runoff and runoff anomaly show positive trends of 12.7 and of 14.39 mm/decade, respectively. Eleven flood contributing factors have been identified and used in mapping flood susceptibility zones of both sites. In the El-Beheira governorate, 9.2%, 17.9%, 32.3%, 28.3% and 12.3% of its area are categorized as very high, high, moderate, low and very low susceptibility to flooding, respectively. Similarly, in Alexandria governorate, 15.9%, 33.5%, 41%, 8.8% and 0.8% of its area are categorized as very high, high, moderate, low and very low susceptibility to flooding, respectively. Very high and high susceptible zones are located in the northern, northwestern and northeastern parts of the Beheira governorates, and in the northeastern and northwestern parts of Alexandria. The flood related information obtained in this study will be useful to assist mitigating potential flood damages and future land use planning of both governorates of Egypt. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

  13. Small river plumes off the northeastern coast of the Black Sea under average climatic and flooding discharge conditions

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    Osadchiev, Alexander; Korshenko, Evgeniya

    2017-06-01

    This study focuses on the impact of discharges of small rivers on the delivery and fate of fluvial water and suspended matter at the northeastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers flow into the sea at the study region, and most of them, except for several of the largest, have little annual runoff and affect adjacent coastal waters to a limited extent under average climatic conditions. However, the discharges of these small rivers are characterized by a quick response to precipitation events and can significantly increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the considered area. The delivery and fate of fluvial water and terrigenous sediments at the study region, under average climatic and rain-induced flooding conditions, were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery, and numerical modeling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers under average climatic conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. The intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments forms a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces the intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a northwestern direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of the narrow shelf at the northeastern part of the Black Sea compared to average climatic discharge conditions.

  14. Small river plumes off the northeastern coast of the Black Sea under average climatic and flooding discharge conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Osadchiev

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the impact of discharges of small rivers on the delivery and fate of fluvial water and suspended matter at the northeastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers flow into the sea at the study region, and most of them, except for several of the largest, have little annual runoff and affect adjacent coastal waters to a limited extent under average climatic conditions. However, the discharges of these small rivers are characterized by a quick response to precipitation events and can significantly increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the considered area. The delivery and fate of fluvial water and terrigenous sediments at the study region, under average climatic and rain-induced flooding conditions, were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery, and numerical modeling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers under average climatic conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. The intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments forms a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces the intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a northwestern direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of the narrow shelf at the northeastern part of the Black Sea compared to average climatic discharge conditions.

  15. Lodgepole pine in the Blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James M. Trappe; Robert W. Harris

    1958-01-01

    Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) is a major species in northeastern Oregon. The lodgepole type covers nearly 400,000 acres in the Blue and Wallowa Mountains, and individual trees are scattered over many of the remaining six million forested acres in this area (2). The type blankets large areas in watersheds in a region where spring floods and summer...

  16. Study and proposals related to extensive flooding in the Siret River area during the summer of 2008 in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanescu, Victor; Stefan, Sabina; Irimescu, Anisoara

    2010-05-01

    Extensive flooding due to overflowing of the Siret River and associated runoff in smaller rivers in northeastern Romania at the end of July 2008 are discussed, taking into account the meteorological and hydrological contexts. The flooding events in Romania claimed human deaths and population displacement, large-scale destruction of housing and infrastructure. Although the Siret river is quite shallow, and several dams and reservoirs restrict and control its flow, the area along the river remains prone to periodic flooding, mainly in spring and summer. Several observations are made on the viability of settlements close to Siret riverbed in Romania, related to the repeatability of situations such as that during the summer of 2008. Generally, the relative shallowness of the river Siret may cause flash floods, when its level increases rapidly due to abundant precipitation. As such, the horizontal extent of the flooding due to runoff is a factor seemingly more important than the short-lived increases in depth, combined with the speed of the flow. As a direct result of the flooding, crops and buildings were damaged. The probability that similar meteorological contexts can cause flooding with the extent of that in 2008 will be discussed. Also, some possible means to improve the reaction of authorities and delivery of relief by them to the affected population will be proposed. Regarding the meteorological context, a presentation of the cyclonic system that has brought heavy and/or continuous rain in northern and northeastern Romania will be made. As proposal for improving the delivery of resources toward the affected area and population, a software system designed to shorten the process of conveying relevant information to decisional factors, and to increase the speed of information between interesed parties will be discussed. The possible outcome of this specific case study will be the improvement of the decisional flux required in times of natural disasters, flooding

  17. Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria Carmen; Marcos, Raul; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential relationship between flash flood events and convective precipitation in Catalonia, as well as any related trends. The paper starts with an overview of flash floods and their trends in the Mediterranean region, along with their associated factors, followed by the definition of, identification of, and trends in convective precipitation. After this introduction the paper focuses on the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, for which there is a long-term precipitation series (since 1928) of 1-min precipitation from the Fabra Observatory, as well as a shorter (1996-2011) but more extensive precipitation series (43 rain gauges) of 5-min precipitation. Both series have been used to characterise the degree of convective contribution to rainfall, introducing the β parameter as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period. Information about flood events was obtained from the INUNGAMA database (a flood database created by the GAMA team), with the aim of finding any potential links to convective precipitation. These flood data were gathered using information on damage where flood is treated as a multifactorial risk, and where any trend or anomaly might have been caused by one or more factors affecting hazard, vulnerability or exposure. Trend analysis has shown an increase in flash flood events. The fact that no trends were detected in terms of extreme values of precipitation on a daily scale, nor on the associated ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme index, could point to an increase in vulnerability, an increase in exposure, or changes in land use. However, the summer increase in convective precipitation was concentrated in less torrential events, which could partially explain this positive trend in flash flood events. The β parameter has been also used to characterise the type of flood event according to the features of the precipitation. The highest values

  18. Interactive modelling with stakeholders in two cases in flood management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leskens, Johannes; Brugnach, Marcela

    2013-04-01

    New policies on flood management called Multi-Level Safety (MLS), demand for an integral and collaborative approach. The goal of MLS is to minimize flood risks by a coherent package of protection measures, crisis management and flood resilience measures. To achieve this, various stakeholders, such as water boards, municipalities and provinces, have to collaborate in composing these measures. Besides the many advances this integral and collaborative approach gives, the decision-making environment becomes also more complex. Participants have to consider more criteria than they used to do and have to take a wide network of participants into account, all with specific perspectives, cultures and preferences. In response, sophisticated models are developed to support decision-makers in grasping this complexity. These models provide predictions of flood events and offer the opportunity to test the effectiveness of various measures under different criteria. Recent model advances in computation speed and model flexibility allow stakeholders to directly interact with a hydrological hydraulic model during meetings. Besides a better understanding of the decision content, these interactive models are supposed to support the incorporation of stakeholder knowledge in modelling and to support mutual understanding of different perspectives of stakeholders To explore the support of interactive modelling in integral and collaborate policies, such as MLS, we tested a prototype of an interactive flood model (3Di) with respect to a conventional model (Sobek) in two cases. The two cases included the designing of flood protection measures in Amsterdam and a flood event exercise in Delft. These case studies yielded two main results. First, we observed that in the exploration phase of a decision-making process, stakeholders participated actively in interactive modelling sessions. This increased the technical understanding of complex problems and the insight in the effectiveness of various

  19. Small river plumes near the north-eastern coast of the Black Sea under climatic mean and flooding discharge conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osadchiev, Alexander; Korshenko, Evgeniya

    2017-04-01

    The study is focused on the impact of discharge from small rivers on propagation and final location of fluvial waters and suspended matter at the north-eastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers inflow into the sea at the studied region and most of them, except the several largest of them, have small annual runoff and limitedly affect adjacent coastal waters under climatic mean conditions. However, discharges of these small rivers are characterized by quick response to precipitation events and can dramatically increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the area under consideration. Propagation and final location of fluvial waters and terrigenous sediments at the studied region under climatic mean and rain-induced flooding conditions were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery and numerical modelling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers during climatic mean conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. Intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments form a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a north-western direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of narrow shelf at the north-eastern part of the Black Sea as compared to climatic mean discharge conditions.

  20. MODIS-based multi-parametric platform for mapping of flood affected areas. Case study: 2006 Danube extreme flood in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craciunescu Vasile

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Flooding remains the most widely distributed natural hazard in Europe, leading to significant economic and social impact. Earth observation data is presently capable of making fundamental contributions towards reducing the detrimental effects of extreme floods. Technological advance makes development of online services able to process high volumes of satellite data without the need of dedicated desktop software licenses possible. The main objective of the case study is to present and evaluate a methodology for mapping of flooded areas based on MODIS satellite images derived indices and using state-of-the-art geospatial web services. The methodology and the developed platform were tested with data for the historical flood event that affected the Danube floodplain in 2006 in Romania. The results proved that, despite the relative coarse resolution, MODIS data is very useful for mapping the development flooded area in large plain floods. Moreover it was shown, that the possibility to adapt and combine the existing global algorithms for flood detection to fit the local conditions is extremely important to obtain accurate results.

  1. Review Article: Structural flood-protection measures referring to several European case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryžanowski, A.; Brilly, M.; Rusjan, S.; Schnabl, S.

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents a review of structural measures that were taken to cope with floods in some cities along the Danube River, such as Vienna, Bratislava, and Belgrade. These cities were also considered as case studies within the KULTURisk project. The structural measures are reviewed and compared to each other according to the type, duration of application, the return period of the design flood event, how the project measures are integrated into spatial planning and the problems that occur in the flood defences today. Based on this review, some suggestions are given on how to improve the flood risk management in flood-prone areas.

  2. Health protection and risks for rescuers in cases of floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janev Holcer, Nataša; Jeličić, Pavle; Grba Bujević, Maja; Važanić, Damir

    2015-03-01

    Floods can pose a number of safety and health hazards for flood-affected populations and rescuers and bring risk of injuries, infections, and diseases due to exposure to pathogenic microorganisms and different biological and chemical contaminants. The risk factors and possible health consequences for the rescuers involved in evacuation and rescuing operations during the May 2014 flood crisis in Croatia are shown, as well as measures for the prevention of injuries and illnesses. In cases of extreme floods, divers play a particularly important role in rescuing and first-response activities. Rescuing in contaminated floodwaters means that the used equipment such as diving suits should be disinfected afterwards. The need for securing the implementation of minimal health and safety measures for involved rescuers is paramount. Data regarding injuries and disease occurrences among rescuers are relatively scarce, indicating the need for medical surveillance systems that would monitor and record all injuries and disease occurrences among rescuers in order to ensure sound epidemiological data. The harmful effects of flooding can be reduced by legislation, improvement of flood forecasting, establishing early warning systems, and appropriate planning and education.

  3. Exploitation of Documented Historical Floods for Achieving Better Flood Defense

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    Slobodan Kolaković

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Establishing Base Flood Elevation for a stream network corresponding to a big catchment is feasible by interdisciplinary approach, involving stochastic hydrology, river hydraulics, and computer aided simulations. A numerical model calibrated by historical floods has been exploited in this study. The short presentation of the catchment of the Tisza River in this paper is followed by the overview of historical floods which hit the region in the documented period of 130 years. Several well documented historical floods provided opportunity for the calibration of the chosen numerical model. Once established, the model could be used for investigation of different extreme flood scenarios and to establish the Base Flood Elevation. The calibration has shown that the coefficient of friction in case of the Tisza River is dependent both on the actual water level and on the preceding flood events. The effect of flood plain maintenance as well as the activation of six potential detention ponds on flood mitigation has been examined. Furthermore, the expected maximum water levels have also been determined for the case if the ever observed biggest 1888 flood hit the region again. The investigated cases of flood superposition highlighted the impact of tributary Maros on flood mitigation along the Tisza River.

  4. Fatal Outbreak from Consuming Xanthium strumarium Seedlings during Time of Food Scarcity in Northeastern Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurley, Emily S.; Rahman, Mahmudur; Hossain, M. Jahangir; Nahar, Nazmun; Faiz, M. Abul; Islam, Nazrul; Sultana, Rebeca; Khatun, Selina; Uddin, Mohammad Zashim; Haider, M. Sabbir; Islam, M. Saiful; Ahmed, Be-Nazir; Rahman, Muhammad Waliur; Mondal, Utpal Kumar; Luby, Stephen P.

    2010-01-01

    Background An outbreak characterized by vomiting and rapid progression to unconsciousness and death was reported in Sylhet Distrct in northeastern Bangladesh following destructive monsoon floods in November 2007. Methods and Findings We identified cases presenting to local hospitals and described their clinical signs and symptoms. We interviewed patients and their families to collect illness histories and generate hypotheses about exposures associated with disease. An epidemiological study was conducted in two outbreak villages to investigate risk factors for developing illness. 76 patients were identified from 9 villages; 25% (19/76) died. Common presenting symptoms included vomiting, elevated liver enzymes, and altered mental status. In-depth interviews with 33 cases revealed that 31 (94%) had consumed ghagra shak, an uncultivated plant, in the hours before illness onset. Ghagra shak was consumed as a main meal by villagers due to inaccessibility of other foods following destructive monsoon flooding and rises in global food prices. Persons who ate this plant were 34.2 times more likely (95% CI 10.2 to 115.8, p-valuepeople are able to meet their nutritional requirements with safe foods, they will continue to be at risk for poor health outcomes beyond undernutrition. PMID:20305785

  5. Flood Response System—A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yogesh Kumar Singh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Flood Response System (FRS is a network-enabled solution developed using open-source software. The system has query based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. FRS effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to flood, like displaying spatial maps of area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the criticality of the information. It is designed to facilitate users in managing information related to flooding during critical flood seasons and analyzing the extent of damage. The inputs to FRS are provided using two components: (1 a semi-automated application developed indigenously, to delineate inundated areas for Near-Real Time Flood Monitoring using Active Microwave Remote Sensing data and (2 a two-dimensional (2D hydrodynamic river model generated outputs for water depth and velocity in flooded areas for an embankment breach scenario. The 2D Hydrodynamic model, CCHE2D (Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering Two-Dimensional model, was used to simulate an area of 600 km2 in the flood-prone zone of the Brahmaputra basin. The resultant inundated area from the model was found to be 85% accurate when validated with post-flood optical satellite data.

  6. An iron-age cultural hiatus enigma: mega-flooding and human settlement abandonment over the last millennium in the Lanyang Drainage System, northeastern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jyh-Jaan; Wei, Kuo-Yen; Löwemark, Ludvig; Song, Sheng-Rong; Huh, Chih-An; Chuang, Chih-Kai; Yang, Tien-Nan; Lee, Meng-Yang; Chen, Yu-Be; Lee, Teh-Quei

    2015-04-01

    Active tectonic activities and frequent typhoon landfalls make Taiwan unique in having very high rates of uplift, precipitation, denudation and sedimentation. Particularly, intense rainfall associated with typhoons often causes flooding, large-scale landslides, and debris flows in river systems. Such natural disasters have affected human societies both at present and in the past; the Typhoon Morakot in 2009 may serve as a modern example of such events. Kiwulan is a newly discovered archaeological site from the Iron Age situated on the Lanyang Plain in NE Taiwan. In the deposits from this society, a cultural hiatus centered around 1200-1500 cal. yr AD is found, suggesting that the settlement was abandoned for a period of a few hundred years before being recolonized. Until now it has remained a mystery what caused this cultural hiatus. This study assembles radiocarbon dates of upland river terraces, organic proxies in flood plain lake sediments, and content of wood shreds in nearby marine sediments from the continental slope off NE Taiwan. These records are synthesized to infer the frequency and magnitude of ancient flood events over the past 1250 years in the Lanyang Drainage System in northeastern Taiwan. Alluvial fan terraces distributed along the banks of the upper Lanyang River are considered to be the results of ancient debris flow events, and their radiocarbon dates fall in two time ranges: 850-1100 and 1400-1600 cal. yr AD. Organic proxies which representing terrestrial organic input were measured from bulk sediments of Lake Dahu and Lake Meihua in the Lanyang Plain. Peak values of TOC, C/N ratio and organic indicator (inc/coh) from Itrax-XRF core scanner measurements are conspicuous during 900-950, and 1400-1500 cal. yr AD, implying frequent flood events. Moreover, abundance peaks of wood shreds and peaks in the C/N ratio in marine box core ORI-801-7A from the continental slope SE of the Lanyang Plain are dated to about 950-1050 and 1450-1550 cal. yr AD

  7. Flash flood disasters analysis and evaluation: a case study of Yiyang County in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haichen; Zhang, Xiaolei; Li, Qing; Qin, Tao; Lei, Xiaohui

    2018-03-01

    Global climate change leads to the more extreme precipitation and more flash flood disasters, which is a serious threat to the mountain inhabitants. To prevent flash flood disasters, China started flash flood disaster control planning and other projects from 2006. Among those measures, non-engineering measures are effective and economical. This paper introduced the framework of flash flood disaster analysis and evaluation in China, followed by a case study of Yiyang County.

  8. Influence of solid waste and topography on urban floods: The case of Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano, Luis; Pacheco-Muñoz, Rodrigo; Fernández, Tania

    2018-02-24

    Floods in cities are increasingly common as a consequence of multifactor watershed dynamics, including geomorphology, land-use changes and land subsidence. However, urban managers have focused on infrastructure to address floods by reducing blocked sewage infrastructure, without significant success. Using Mexico City as a case study, we generated a spatial flood risk model with geomorphology and anthropogenic variables. The results helped contrast the implications of different public policies in land use and waste disposal, and correlating them with flood hazards. Waste disposal was only related to small floods. 58% of the city has a high risk of experiencing small floods, and 24% of the city has a risk for large floods. Half of the population with the lowest income is located in the high-risk areas for large floods. These models are easy to build, generate fast results and are able to help to flood policies, by understanding flood interactions in urban areas within the watershed.

  9. THE ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMICAL LOSS CAUSED BY FLOODS AND FLASH-FLOODS BY USING COMPUTER TECHNIQUES. CASE STUDY: LOPĂTARI VILLAGE, SLĂNIC RIVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    COSTACHE R.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The present study aims to provide an example of the assessment of economical loss caused by floods and flash-floods, by integrating GIS techniques of hydraulic and hydrological modelling. The case study was performed in Lopătari village, which is located in the upper area of Slănic River, one of the most affected areas by floods and flash-floods. The flood event produced on 29.V.2012 was considered in order to perform this study. Thus, a flood hydrograph was simulated by using software HEC-HMS 3.5, based on hourly precipitation data from Bisoca meteorological station from 29.V.2012. The peak discharge resulting from the hydrological modelling software was used in HEC-RAS 4.1 hydraulic modelling software in order to determine the extent of flooding band, the number of the affected elements and the local economical loss. Finally, 21 flooded buildings were identified and 550 m of affected road, the estimated economical damage being about 800,000 RON.

  10. Economic Assessment of Flood Control Facilities under Climate Uncertainty: A Case of Nakdong River, South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyeongseok Kim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change contributes to enhanced flood damage that has been increasing for the last several decades. Understanding climate uncertainties improves adaptation strategies used for investment in flood control facilities. This paper proposes an investment decision framework for one flood zone to cope with future severe climate impacts. This framework can help policy-makers investigate the cost of future damage and conduct an economic assessment using real options under future climate change scenarios. The proposed methodology provides local municipalities with an adaptation strategy for flood control facilities in a flood zone. Using the proposed framework, the flood prevention facilities in the Nakdong River Basin of South Korea was selected as a case study site to analyze the economic assessment of the investments for flood control facilities. Using representative concentration pathway (RCP climate scenarios, the cost of future flood damage to 23 local municipalities was calculated, and investment strategies for adaptation were analyzed. The project option value was determined by executing an option to invest in an expansion that would adapt to floods under climate change. The results of the case study showed that the proposed flood facilities are economically feasible under both scenarios used. The framework is anticipated to present guidance for establishing investment strategies for flood control facilities of a flood zone in multiple municipalities’ settings.

  11. LiDAR and IFSAR-Based Flood Inundation Model Estimates for Flood-Prone Areas of Afghanistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, W. C.; Goldade, M. M.; Kastens, J.; Dobbs, K. E.; Macpherson, G. L.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme flood events are not unusual in semi-arid to hyper-arid regions of the world, and Afghanistan is no exception. Recent flashfloods and flashflood-induced landslides took nearly 100 lives and destroyed or damaged nearly 2000 homes in 12 villages within Guzargah-e-Nur district of Baghlan province in northeastern Afghanistan. With available satellite imagery, flood-water inundation estimation can be accomplished remotely, thereby providing a means to reduce the impact of such flood events by improving shared situational awareness during major flood events. Satellite orbital considerations, weather, cost, data licensing restrictions, and other issues can often complicate the acquisition of appropriately timed imagery. Given the need for tools to supplement imagery where not available, complement imagery when it is available, and bridge the gap between imagery based flood mapping and traditional hydrodynamic modeling approaches, we have developed a topographic floodplain model (FLDPLN), which has been used to identify and map river valley floodplains with elevation data ranging from 90-m SRTM to 1-m LiDAR. Floodplain "depth to flood" (DTF) databases generated by FLDPLN are completely seamless and modular. FLDPLN has been applied in Afghanistan to flood-prone areas along the northern and southern flanks of the Hindu Kush mountain range to generate a continuum of 1-m increment flood-event models up to 10 m in depth. Elevation data used in this application of FLDPLN included high-resolution, drone-acquired LiDAR (~1 m) and IFSAR (5 m; INTERMAP). Validation of the model has been accomplished using the best available satellite-derived flood inundation maps, such as those issued by Unitar's Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT). Results provide a quantitative approach to evaluating the potential risk to urban/village infrastructure as well as to irrigation systems, agricultural fields and archaeological sites.

  12. Flood disaster and protection measures in Turkey Case Study: May 1998 flood disaster at North Western Black Sea Region of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gurer, Ibrahim; Ozguier, Hamza

    2004-01-01

    Due to geographical location, geology, and topography, Turkey undergoes three main types of natural disasters related to gravity flows; floods, landslides, and snow avalanches. Flooding is second important natural hazard after earthquakes with 18 floods and 23 deaths per year, on average. During 20-21 May 1998, the rainfall which was equal to about four times of long-term mean annual rainfall total of north western Black Sea geographical region of Turkey affected 35.000 m 2 , damaged 1300 km highway, 600 km roads to the villages, and 60 km railway. After the recession of the flood waters, the field survey done proved that 12 highway bridges, 91 small bridges on village roads and 6900 highway culverts, 13.800 m retaining wall and about 500 houses were severely damaged. During the last five years, with the loans and credits provided by World Bank, a series of flood protection structures were designed and built for the rehabilitation of the region. Mostly concentrating on non-structural flood protection studies, a work programme has been drafted in this framework to develop flood management and to reduce or eliminate long-term risk and damage to people and their property from natural hazards and their effects. In this case study, the factors causing the flood disaster are given, and the flood event is analyzed from hydrologic and morphologic points of view. Also the different types of the flood protection measures are exemplified and the experience gained in controlling the flood damages is presented.(Author)

  13. A SPECIAL FOEHN CASE IN NORTH-EASTERN APUSENI MOUNTAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. TUDOSE

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a case study for the 9-10 January 2015 period, when foehn processes were occurred on the eastern slope of the Apuseni Mountains. With a view to establishing the synoptic context in which the phenomenon was manifested, an analysis of the atmospheric fields was used, while for determining the intensity of the process several meteorological parameters (temperature, wind and relative humidity were analyzed along three west-east profiles across the Apuseni Mountains. The analysis points out the presence of foehn processes on the eastern part of the Apuseni Mountains, the highest thermal and hygric differences being recorded on the north-eastern part of the mountains. The most important effect of this synoptic situation was the reduction of the snow cover depth.

  14. An overview of road damages due to flooding: Case study in Kedah state, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Muhd Shahril Nizam; Ghani, Abdul Naser Abdul

    2017-10-01

    Flooding occurs frequently in many countries including Malaysia. Floods in Malaysia are usually due to heavy and prolonged rainfall, uncontrolled development, and drainage systems that are not being monitored. Road damage due to flooding event can cause huge expenditures for the post-flooding rehabilitation and maintenance. The required maintenance and rehabilitation could upset the original life cycle cost estimations. Data on road statistics were obtained from the Highway Planning Division, Ministry of Works Malaysia and data on flooding was collected from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia for events between 2012 and 2015. The pilot sites were selected based on its historical cases of floods that caused road damages in Kedah. The pilot site indicated that the impact of flooding on road infrastructures systems can be used to plan better road design and maintenances. It also revealed that it costs more than RM 1 million to reinstate roads damaged by flooding in a typical district annually.

  15. Improving Global Flood Forecasting using Satellite Detected Flood Extent

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Revilla Romero, B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding is a natural global phenomenon but in many cases is exacerbated by human activity. Although flooding generally affects humans in a negative way, bringing death, suffering, and economic impacts, it also has potentially beneficial effects. Early flood warning and forecasting systems, as well

  16. Flood Response System—A Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Yogesh Kumar Singh; Upasana Dutta; T. S. Murugesh Prabhu; I. Prabu; Jitendra Mhatre; Manoj Khare; Sandeep Srivastava; Subasisha Dutta

    2017-01-01

    Flood Response System (FRS) is a network-enabled solution developed using open-source software. The system has query based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. FRS effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to flood, like displaying spatial maps of area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the critica...

  17. Continuous hydrologic simulation and flood-frequency, hydraulic, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed, Kane County, Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soong, David T.; Straub, Timothy D.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.

    2006-01-01

    Results of hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains range from approximately 25 acres in the tributary F watershed (a headwater subbasin at the northeastern corner of the watershed) to almost 1,800 acres in Blackberry Creek main stem. Based on 1996 land-cover data, most of the land in the 100-year and 500-year flood plains was cropland, forested and wooded land, and grassland. A relatively small percentage of urban land was in the flood plains. The Blackberry Creek watershed has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. The population and urbanized lands in the watershed are projected to double from the 1990 condition by 2020. Recently, flood-induced damage has occurred more frequently in urbanized areas of the watershed. There are concerns about the effect of urbanization on flood peaks and volumes, future flood-mitigation plans, and potential effects on the water quality and stream habitats. This report describes the procedures used in developing the hydrologic models, estimating the flood-peak discharge magnitudes and recurrence intervals for flood-hazard analysis, developing the hydraulic model, and the results of the analysis in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to perform the simulation of continuous water movements through various patterns of land uses in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and to determine the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using high water marks and observed inundation maps for the July 17-18, 1996, flood event. Digital

  18. Measuring flood footprint of a regional economy - A case study for the UK flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, D.

    2013-12-01

    Analysis of the urban economy and society is central to understanding the broad impacts of flooding and to identify cost-effective adaptation and mitigation measures. Assessments of the flooding impacts on cities have traditionally focused on the initial impact on people and assets. These initial estimates (so-called ';direct damage') are useful both in understanding the immediate implications of damage, and in marshalling the pools of capital and supplies required for re-building after an event. Since different economies as well as societies are coupled, especially under the current economic crisis, any small-scale damage may be multiplied and cascaded throughout wider economic systems and social networks. The direct and indirect damage is currently not evaluated well and could be captured by quantification of what we call the flood footprint. Flooding in one location can impact the whole UK economy. Neglecting these knock-on costs (i.e. the true footprint of the flood) means we might be ignoring the economic benefits and beneficiaries of flood risk management interventions. In 2007, for example, floods cost the economy about £3.2 bn directly, but the wider effect might actually add another 50% to 250% to that. Flood footprint is a measure of the exclusive total socioeconomic impact that is directly and indirectly caused by a flood event to the flooding region and wider economic systems and social networks. We adopt the UK 2012 flooding. An input-output basic dynamic inequalities (BDI) model is used to assess the impact of the floodings on the level of a Yorkshire economy, accounting for interactions between industries through demand and supply of intermediate consumption goods with a circular flow. After the disaster the economy will be unbalanced. The recovery process finishes when the economy is completely balance, i.e., when labour production capacity equals demands and production and all the variables reach pre-disaster levels. The analysis is carried out

  19. Multivariate pluvial flood damage models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ootegem, Luc; Verhofstadt, Elsy; Van Herck, Kristine; Creten, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimation technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks

  20. Multivariate pluvial flood damage models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Ootegem, Luc [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium); SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Verhofstadt, Elsy [SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Van Herck, Kristine; Creten, Tom [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium)

    2015-09-15

    Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimation technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks.

  1. Adaptation to flood risk: Results of international paired flood event studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Di Baldassarre, G.; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Apel, H.; Aronica, G.T.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Bouwer, L.; Bubeck, P.; Caloiero, Tommaso; Chinh, Do. T.; Cortès, Maria; Gain, A.K.; Giampá, Vincenzo; Kuhlicke, C; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Carmen Llasat, M; Mård, Johanna; Matczak, Piotr; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Molinari, Daniela; Dung, N.V.; Petrucci, Olga; Schröter, Kai; Slager, Kymo; Thieken, A.H.; Ward, P.J.; Merz, B.

    2017-01-01

    As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in

  2. How Multilevel Societal Learning Processes Facilitate Transformative Change: A Comparative Case Study Analysis on Flood Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Pahl-Wostl

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable resources management requires a major transformation of existing resource governance and management systems. These have evolved over a long time under an unsustainable management paradigm, e.g., the transformation from the traditionally prevailing technocratic flood protection toward the holistic integrated flood management approach. We analyzed such transformative changes using three case studies in Europe with a long history of severe flooding: the Hungarian Tisza and the German and Dutch Rhine. A framework based on societal learning and on an evolutionary understanding of societal change was applied to identify drivers and barriers for change. Results confirmed the importance of informal learning and actor networks and their connection to formal policy processes. Enhancing a society's capacity to adapt is a long-term process that evolves over decades, and in this case, was punctuated by disastrous flood events that promoted windows of opportunity for change.

  3. Data Reports for Retrospective Case Study in Northeastern Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page includes the data reports for sampling rounds collected in Northeastern Pennsylvania conducted as part of EPA's Study of the Potential Impacts of Hydrualic Fracturing for Oil and Gas on Drinking Water Resources

  4. Reconstructing the 2015 Flash Flood event of Salgar Colombia, The Case of a Poor Gauged Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasquez, N.; Zapata, E.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Velez, J. I.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods events associated with severe precipitation events are highly destructive, often resulting in significant human and economic losses. Due to their nature, flash floods trend to occur in medium to small basins located within complex high mountainous regions. In the Colombian Andean region these basins are very common, with the aggravating factor that the vulnerability is considerably high as some important human settlements are located within these basins, frequently occupating flood plains and other flash-flood prone areas. During the dawn of May 18 of 2015 two severe rainfall events generated a flash flood event in the municipality ofSalgar, La Liboriana basin, locatedin the northwestern Colombian Andes, resulting in more than 100 human casualties and significant economic losses. The present work is a reconstruction of the hydrological processes that took place before and during the Liboriana flash flood event, analyzed as a case of poorly gauged basin.The event conditions where recreated based on radar retrievals and a hydrological distributed model, linked with a proposed 1D hydraulic model and simple shallow landslide model. Results suggest that the flash flood event was caused by the occurrence of two successive severe convective events over the same basin, with an important modulation associated with soil characteristics and water storage.Despite of its simplicity, the proposed hydraulic model achieves a good representation of the flooded area during the event, with limitations due to the adopted spatial scale (12.7 meters, from ALOS PALSAR images). Observed landslides were obtained from satellite images; for this case the model simulates skillfully the landslide occurrence regions with small differences in the exact locations.To understand this case, radar data shows to be key due to specific convective cores location and rainfall intensity estimation.In mountainous regions, there exists a significant number of settlements with similar

  5. Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

    2016-04-01

    Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

  6. Flooding and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in Massachusetts: a case-crossover study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy J Wade

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Floods and other severe weather events are anticipated to increase as a result of global climate change. Floods can lead to outbreaks of gastroenteritis and other infectious diseases due to disruption of sewage and water infrastructure and impacts on sanitation and hygiene. Floods have also been indirectly associated with outbreaks through population displacement and crowding. METHODS: We conducted a case-crossover study to investigate the association between flooding and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness (ER-GI in Massachusetts for the years 2003 through 2007. We obtained ER-GI visits from the State of Massachusetts and records of floods from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Storm Events Database. ER-GI visits were considered exposed if a flood occurred in the town of residence within three hazard periods of the visit: 0-4 days; 5-9 days; and 10-14 days. A time-stratified bi-directional design was used for control selection, matching on day of the week with two weeks lead or lag time from the ER-GI visit. Fixed effect logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk of ER-GI visits following the flood. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: A total of 270,457 ER-GI visits and 129 floods occurred in Massachusetts over the study period. Across all counties, flooding was associated with an increased risk for ER-GI in the 0-4 day period after flooding (Odds Ratio: 1.08; 95% Confidence Interval: 1.03-1.12; but not the 5-9 days (Odds Ratio: 0.995; 95% Confidence Interval: 0.955-1.04 or the 10-14 days after (Odds Ratio: 0.966, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.927-1.01. Similar results were observed for different definitions of ER-GI. The effect differed across counties, suggesting local differences in the risk and impact of flooding. Statewide, across the study period, an estimated 7% of ER-GI visits in the 0-4 days after a flood event were attributable to flooding.

  7. Two dimensional modelling of flood flows and suspended sediment transport: the case of Brenta River

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Alpaos, L.; Martini, P.; Carniello, L.

    2003-04-01

    The paper deals with numerical modelling of flood waves and suspended sediment in plain river basins. The two dimensional depth integrated momentum and continuity equations, modified to take into account of the bottom irregularities that strongly affect the hydrodynamic and the continuity in partially dry areas (for example, during the first stages of a plain flooding and in tidal flows), are solved with a standard Galerkin finite element method using a semi-implicit numerical scheme and considering the role both of the small channel network and the regulation dispositive on the flooding wave propagation. Transport of suspended sediment and bed evolution are coupled with the flood propagation through the convection-dispersion equation and the Exner's equation. Results of a real case study are presented in which the effects of extreme flood of Brenta River (Italy) are examinated. The flooded areas (urban and rural areas) are identified and a mitigation solution based on a diversion channel flowing into Venice Lagoon is proposed. We show that this solution strongly reduces the flood risk in the downstream areas and can provide an important sediment source to the Venice Lagoon. Finally, preliminary results of the sediment dispersion in the Venice Lagoon are presented.

  8. Flood Realities, Perceptions and the Depth of Divisions on Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C; Wake, Cameron P; Hartter, Joel; Safford, Thomas G; Puchlopek, Alli J

    2016-01-01

    Research has led to broad agreement among scientists that anthropogenic climate change is happening now and likely to worsen. In contrast to scientific agreement, US public views remain deeply divided, largely along ideological lines. Science communication has been neutralised in some arenas by intense counter-messaging, but as adverse climate impacts become manifest they might intervene more persuasively in local perceptions. We look for evidence of this occurring with regard to realities and perceptions of flooding in the northeastern US state of New Hampshire. Although precipitation and flood damage have increased, with ample news coverage, most residents do not see a trend. Nor do perceptions about past and future local flooding correlate with regional impacts or vulnerability. Instead, such perceptions follow ideological patterns resembling those of global climate change. That information about the physical world can be substantially filtered by ideology is a common finding from sociological environment/society research. PMID:27818533

  9. Fatal outbreak from consuming Xanthium strumarium seedlings during time of food scarcity in northeastern Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurley, Emily S; Rahman, Mahmudur; Hossain, M Jahangir; Nahar, Nazmun; Faiz, M Abul; Islam, Nazrul; Sultana, Rebeca; Khatun, Selina; Uddin, Mohammad Zashim; Haider, M Sabbir; Islam, M Saiful; Ahmed, Be-Nazir; Rahman, Muhammad Waliur; Mondal, Utpal Kumar; Luby, Stephen P

    2010-03-18

    An outbreak characterized by vomiting and rapid progression to unconsciousness and death was reported in Sylhet Distrct in northeastern Bangladesh following destructive monsoon floods in November 2007. We identified cases presenting to local hospitals and described their clinical signs and symptoms. We interviewed patients and their families to collect illness histories and generate hypotheses about exposures associated with disease. An epidemiological study was conducted in two outbreak villages to investigate risk factors for developing illness. 76 patients were identified from 9 villages; 25% (19/76) died. Common presenting symptoms included vomiting, elevated liver enzymes, and altered mental status. In-depth interviews with 33 cases revealed that 31 (94%) had consumed ghagra shak, an uncultivated plant, in the hours before illness onset. Ghagra shak was consumed as a main meal by villagers due to inaccessibility of other foods following destructive monsoon flooding and rises in global food prices. Persons who ate this plant were 34.2 times more likely (95% CI 10.2 to 115.8, p-valuestrumarium, or common cocklebur. The consumption of Xanthium strumarium seedlings in large quantities, due to inaccessibility of other foods, caused this outbreak. The toxic chemical in the plant, carboxyatratyloside, has been previously described and eating X. strumarium seeds and seedlings has been associated with fatalities in humans and livestock. Unless people are able to meet their nutritional requirements with safe foods, they will continue to be at risk for poor health outcomes beyond undernutrition.

  10. Impacts of repetitive floods and satisfaction with flood relief efforts: A case study of the flood-prone districts in Thailand’s Ayutthaya province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nawhath Thanvisitthpon

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This research investigates the impacts of the repetitive flooding on the inhabitants of the four flood-prone districts in Thailand’s central province of Ayutthaya: Pranakorn Si Ayutthaya, Sena, Bang Ban, and Pak Hai. In addition, the residents’ satisfaction levels with the flood relief efforts and operations of the local authorities were examined and analyzed. The research revealed that most local residents have adapted to co-exist with the repetitive floods, an example of which is the elevation of the houses a few meters above the ground where the living quarter is on the upper level. The findings also indicated that the repetitive flooding incurred substantial post-flood repair costs, in light of the low income-earning capabilities of the locals. However, the flood-recovery financial aids was incommensurate with the actual expenditures, contributing to the lowest average satisfaction score among the inhabitants with regard to the adequacy of the post-flood repair and restoration financial aid. Furthermore, the research identified the differences between districts on the satisfaction with the flood relief efforts. The disparity could be attributed to the extent of coordination and participation of the local residents and their local leaders in the flood-related measures.

  11. Groundwater variability across temporal and spatial scales in the central and northeastern U.S.

    OpenAIRE

    Li, B; Rodell, M; Famiglietti, JS

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 Elsevier B.V. Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwate...

  12. Hydrological simulation of flood transformations in the upper Danube River: Case study of large flood events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitková Veronika Bačová

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The problem of understand natural processes as factors that restrict, limit or even jeopardize the interests of human society is currently of great concern. The natural transformation of flood waves is increasingly affected and disturbed by artificial interventions in river basins. The Danube River basin is an area of high economic and water management importance. Channel training can result in changes in the transformation of flood waves and different hydrographic shapes of flood waves compared with the past. The estimation and evolution of the transformation of historical flood waves under recent river conditions is only possible by model simulations. For this purpose a nonlinear reservoir cascade model was constructed. The NLN-Danube nonlinear reservoir river model was used to simulate the transformation of flood waves in four sections of the Danube River from Kienstock (Austria to Štúrovo (Slovakia under relatively recent river reach conditions. The model was individually calibrated for two extreme events in August 2002 and June 2013. Some floods that occurred on the Danube during the period of 1991–2002 were used for the validation of the model. The model was used to identify changes in the transformational properties of the Danube channel in the selected river reach for some historical summer floods (1899, 1954 1965 and 1975. Finally, a simulation of flood wave propagation of the most destructive Danube flood of the last millennium (August 1501 is discussed.

  13. Evaluating Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series for Estimating Frequency of Small Magnitude Floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fazlul Karim

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the nature of frequent floods is important for characterising channel morphology, riparian and aquatic habitat, and informing river restoration efforts. This paper presents results from an analysis on frequency estimates of low magnitude floods using the annual maximum and partial series data compared to actual flood series. Five frequency distribution models were fitted to data from 24 gauging stations in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR lagoon catchments in north-eastern Australia. Based on the goodness of fit test, Generalised Extreme Value, Generalised Pareto and Log Pearson Type 3 models were used to estimate flood frequencies across the study region. Results suggest frequency estimates based on a partial series are better, compared to an annual series, for small to medium floods, while both methods produce similar results for large floods. Although both methods converge at a higher recurrence interval, the convergence recurrence interval varies between catchments. Results also suggest frequency estimates vary slightly between two or more partial series, depending on flood threshold, and the differences are large for the catchments that experience less frequent floods. While a partial series produces better frequency estimates, it can underestimate or overestimate the frequency if the flood threshold differs largely compared to bankfull discharge. These results have significant implications in calculating the dependency of floodplain ecosystems on the frequency of flooding and their subsequent management.

  14. Characterization of increased persistence and intensity of precipitation in the northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilbert, Justin; Betts, Alan K.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Beckage, Brian; Bomblies, Arne

    2015-03-01

    We present evidence of increasing persistence in daily precipitation in the northeastern United States that suggests that global circulation changes are affecting regional precipitation patterns. Meteorological data from 222 stations in 10 northeastern states are analyzed using Markov chain parameter estimates to demonstrate that a significant mode of precipitation variability is the persistence of precipitation events. We find that the largest region-wide trend in wet persistence (i.e., the probability of precipitation in 1 day and given precipitation in the preceding day) occurs in June (+0.9% probability per decade over all stations). We also find that the study region is experiencing an increase in the magnitude of high-intensity precipitation events. The largest increases in the 95th percentile of daily precipitation occurred in April with a trend of +0.7 mm/d/decade. We discuss the implications of the observed precipitation signals for watershed hydrology and flood risk.

  15. Economic valuation of flood mitigation services: A case study from the Otter Creek, VT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galford, G. L.; Ricketts, T.; Bryan, K. L.; ONeil-Dunne, J.; Polasky, S.

    2014-12-01

    The ecosystem services provided by wetlands are widely recognized but difficult to quantify. In particular, estimating the effect of landcover and land use on downstream flood outcomes remains challenging, but is increasingly important in light of climate change predictions of increased precipitation in many areas. Economic valuation can help incorporate ecosystem services into decisions and enable communities to plan for climate and flood resiliency. Here we estimate the economic value of Otter Creek wetlands for Middlebury, VT in mitigating the flood that followed Tropical Storm Irene, as well as for ten historic floods. Observationally, hydrographs above and below the wetlands in the case of each storm indicated the wetlands functioned as a temporary reservoir, slowing the delivery of water to Middlebury. We compare observed floods, based on Middlebury's hydrograph, with simulated floods for scenarios without wetlands. To simulate these "without wetlands" scenarios, we assume the same volume of water was delivered to Middlebury, but in a shorter time pulse similar to a hydrograph upstream of the wetlands. For scenarios with and without wetlands, we map the spatial extent of flooding using LiDAR digital elevation data. We then estimate flood depth at each affected building, and calculate monetary losses as a function of the flood depth and house value using established depth damage relationships. For example, we expect damages equal to 20% of the houses value for a flood depth of two feet in a two-story home with a basement. We define the value of flood mitigation services as the difference in damages between the with and without wetlands scenario, and find that the Otter Creek wetlands reduced flood damage in Middlebury by 88% following Hurricane Irene. Using the 10 additional historic floods, we estimate an ongoing mean value of $400,000 in avoided damages per year. Economic impacts of this magnitude stress the importance of wetland conservation and warrant the

  16. A Mediterranean case study of flood evolution: the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria Carmen; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Cortès, Maria; Marcos, Raül; Martín-Vide, Juan Pedro; Turco, Marco; Falcón, Lluis

    2016-04-01

    ensemble of regional models (ENSEMBLES project) have been also considered. Flood events have been obtained from newspapers, reports and insurance data. The role played by prevention measures, particularly in the specific case of Barcelona, which has been recognized by UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) as resilient city in front of floods, is also presented. Results confirm the strong role played by the increase of urban surface (from less than 15% in 1956 to near 40% in 2009) and explore future adaptation measures in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This work has been supported by the Spanish project HOPE and the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, and developed by an interdisciplinary team that include experts from hydrology, meteorology, geography, environmental sciences and architecture.

  17. Examining the Capability of Supervised Machine Learning Classifiers in Extracting Flooded Areas from Landsat TM Imagery: A Case Study from a Mediterranean Flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gareth Ireland

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study explored the capability of Support Vector Machines (SVMs and regularised kernel Fisher’s discriminant analysis (rkFDA machine learning supervised classifiers in extracting flooded area from optical Landsat TM imagery. The ability of both techniques was evaluated using a case study of a riverine flood event in 2010 in a heterogeneous Mediterranean region, for which TM imagery acquired shortly after the flood event was available. For the two classifiers, both linear and non-linear (kernel versions were utilised in their implementation. The ability of the different classifiers to map the flooded area extent was assessed on the basis of classification accuracy assessment metrics. Results showed that rkFDA outperformed SVMs in terms of accurate flooded pixels detection, also producing fewer missed detections of the flooded area. Yet, SVMs showed less false flooded area detections. Overall, the non-linear rkFDA classification method was the more accurate of the two techniques (OA = 96.23%, K = 0.877. Both methods outperformed the standard Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI thresholding (OA = 94.63, K = 0.818 by roughly 0.06 K points. Although overall accuracy results for the rkFDA and SVMs classifications only showed a somewhat minor improvement on the overall accuracy exhibited by the NDWI thresholding, notably both classifiers considerably outperformed the thresholding algorithm in other specific accuracy measures (e.g. producer accuracy for the “not flooded” class was ~10.5% less accurate for the NDWI thresholding algorithm in comparison to the classifiers, and average per-class accuracy was ~5% less accurate than the machine learning models. This study provides evidence of the successful application of supervised machine learning for classifying flooded areas in Landsat imagery, where few studies so far exist in this direction. Considering that Landsat data is open access and has global coverage, the results of this study

  18. Flash flood characterisation of the Haor area of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, B.; Suman, A.

    2012-04-01

    Haors are large bowl-shaped flood plain depressions located mostly in north-eastern part of Bangladesh covering about 25% of the entire region. During dry season haors are used for agriculture and during rainy season it is used as fisheries. Haors have profound ecological importance. About 8000 migratory wild birds visit the area annually. Some of the haors are declared at Ramsar sites. Haors are frequently affected by the flash floods due to hilly topography and steep slope of the rivers draining the area. These flash floods spill onto low-lying flood plain lands in the region, inundating crops, damaging infrastructure by erosion and often causing loss of lives and properties. Climate change is exacerbating the situation. For appropriate risk mitigation mechanism it is necessary to explore flood characteristics of that region. The area is not at all studied well. Under a current project a numerical 1D2D model based on MIKE Flood is developed to study the flooding characteristics and estimate the climate change impacts on the haor region. Under this study the progression of flood levels at some key haors in relation to the water level data at specified gauges in the region is analysed. As the region is at the border with India so comparing with the gauges at the border with India is carried out. The flooding in the Haor area is associated with the rainfall in the upstream catchment in India (Meghalaya, Barak and Tripura basins in India). The flood propagation in some of the identified haors in relation to meteorological forcing in the three basins in India is analysed as well. Subsequently, a ranking of haors is done based on individual risks. Based on the IPCC recommendation the precipitation scenario in the upstream catchments under climate change is considered. The study provides the fundamental inputs for preparing a flood risk management plan of the region.

  19. Deriving Design Flood Hydrograph Based on Conditional Distribution: A Case Study of Danjiangkou Reservoir in Hanjiang Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changjiang Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Design flood hydrograph (DFH for a dam is the flood of suitable probability and magnitude adopted to ensure safety of the dam in accordance with appropriate design standards. Estimated quantiles of peak discharge and flood volumes are necessary for deriving the DFH, which are mutually correlated and need to be described by multivariate analysis methods. The joint probability distributions of peak discharge and flood volumes were established using copula functions. Then the general formulae of conditional most likely composition (CMLC and conditional expectation composition (CEC methods that consider the inherent relationship between flood peak and volumes were derived for estimating DFH. The Danjiangkou reservoir in Hanjiang basin was selected as a case study. The design values of flood volumes and 90% confidence intervals with different peak discharges were estimated by the proposed methods. The performance of CMLC and CEC methods was also compared with conventional flood frequency analysis, and the results show that CMLC method performs best for both bivariate and trivariate distributions which has the smallest relative error and root mean square error. The proposed CMLC method has strong statistical basis with unique design flood composition scheme and provides an alternative way for deriving DFH.

  20. Climate, orography and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Persiano

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review previously proposed reference procedures for design-flood estimation, such as national flood frequency models. Our study focuses on Triveneto, a broad geographical region in North-eastern Italy. A reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto is available from the Italian NCR research project "VA.PI.", which considered Triveneto as a single homogeneous region and developed a regional model using annual maximum series (AMS of peak discharges that were collected up to the 1980s by the former Italian Hydrometeorological Service. We consider a very detailed AMS database that we recently compiled for 76 catchments located in Triveneto. All 76 study catchments are characterized in terms of several geomorphologic and climatic descriptors. The objective of our study is threefold: (1 to inspect climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime; (2 to verify the possible presence of changes in flood frequency regime by looking at changes in time of regional L-moments of annual maximum floods; (3 to develop an updated reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto by using a focused-pooling approach (i.e. Region of Influence, RoI. Our study leads to the following conclusions: (1 climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime in Triveneto are similar to the controls that were recently found in Europe; (2 a single year characterized by extreme floods can have a remarkable influence on regional flood frequency models and analyses for detecting possible changes in flood frequency regime; (3 no significant change was detected in the flood frequency regime, yet an update of the existing reference procedure for design flood estimation is highly recommended and we propose the RoI approach for properly representing climate and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto, which cannot be regarded

  1. A framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure in mitigating urban flood hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Jochen E.; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, Tim D.; Sanders, Brett F.

    2017-10-01

    This research outlines a framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure (GI) performance in mitigating flood hazard in small urban catchments. The urban hydrologic modeling tool (MUSIC) is coupled with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with GI, rainwater tanks and infiltration trenches in particular, can propagate flood management benefits downstream and support intuitive flood hazard maps useful for communicating and planning with communities. The hydrologic and hydraulic models are calibrated based on current catchment conditions, then modified to represent alternative GI scenarios including a complete lack of GI versus a full implementation of GI. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 1-63% and durations from 10 min to 24 h. Flood hazard benefits mapped by the framework include maximum flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Application of the system to the Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment shows that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 h, presently implemented GI reduces downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of GI would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of GI could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing the drowning hazard posed by urban streams and improving the potential for access by emergency responders. For storm durations longer than 3 h, a full implementation of GI lacks the capacity to retain the resulting rainfall depths and only reduces flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%.

  2. Flood Risk Assessment as a Part of Integrated Flood and Drought Analysis. Case Study: Southern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabnakorn, Saowanit; Suryadi, Fransiscus X.; de Fraiture, Charlotte

    2015-04-01

    Flood and drought are two main meteorological catastrophes that have created adverse consequences to more than 80% of total casualties universally, 50% by flood and 31% by drought. Those natural hazards have the tendency of increasing frequency and degree of severity and it is expected that climate change will exacerbate their occurrences and impacts. In addition, growing population and society interference are the other key factors that pressure on and exacerbate the adverse impacts. Consequently, nowadays, the loss from any disasters becomes less and less acceptable bringing about more people's consciousness on mitigation measures and management strategies and policies. In general, due to the difference in their inherent characteristics and time occurrences flood and drought mitigation and protection have been separately implemented, managed, and supervised by different group of authorities. Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop an integrated mitigation measure or a management policy able to surmount both problems to acceptable levels and is conveniently monitored by the same group of civil servants which will be economical in both short- and long-term. As aforementioned of the distinction of fundamental peculiarities and occurrence, the assessment processes of floods and droughts are separately performed using their own specific techniques. In the first part of the research flood risk assessment is focused in order to delineate the flood prone area. The study area is a river plain in southern Thailand where flooding is influenced by monsoon and depression. The work is mainly concentrated on physically-based computational modeling and an assortment of tools was applied for: data completion, areal rainfall interpolation, statistical distribution, rainfall-runoff analysis and flow model simulation. The outcome from the simulation can be concluded that the flood prone areas susceptible to inundation are along the riparian areas, particularly at the

  3. Effects of an extreme flood on river morphology (case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yousefi, Saleh; Mirzaee, Somayeh; Keesstra, Saskia; Surian, Nicola; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Zakizadeh, Hamid Reza; Tabibian, Sahar

    2018-01-01

    An extreme flood occurred on 14 April 2016 in the Karoon River, Iran. The occurred flood discharge was the highest discharge recorded over the last 60 years in the Karoon River. Using the OLI Landsat images taken on 8 April 2016 (before the flood) and 24 April 2016 (after the flood) the geomorphic

  4. Preparation of a flood-risk environmental index: case study of eight townships in Changhua County, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Szu-Hsien

    2018-02-26

    To evaluate flood-prone areas, correlation analysis of flooding factors for the quantitative evaluation of hazard degree was determined to assist in further disaster prevention management. This study used flood-prone areas in 35 villages over eight townships (Changhua, Huatan, Yuanlin, Xiushui, Puyan, Hemei, Dacun, and Erlin) in Changhua County as research samples. Linear combination was used to evaluate flood-prone environmental indices, and an expert questionnaire was designed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the Delphi method to determine the weights of factors. These factors were then used to calculate the eigenvector of a pairwise comparison matrix to obtain the weights for the risk assessment criteria. Through collection of disaster cases, with particular focus on specifically protected areas where flooding has occurred or is likely to occur, public adaptation and response capabilities were evaluated by using an interview questionnaire that contains the items of perceived disaster risk, resource acquisition capability, adaptation capability, and environment understanding and disaster prevention education. Overlays in a geographic information system were used to analyze the flood-risk degree in villages and to construct a distribution map that contains flood-prone environment indices. The results can assist local governments in understanding the risk degree of various administrative areas to aid them in developing effective mitigation plans.

  5. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murla, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS......), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g.DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may...... cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized...

  6. Coastal flood protection management under uncertainty – the Danish case

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jumppanen Andersen, Kaija; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Piontkowitz, Thorsten

    Local stakeholders responsible for coastal management. In Denmark, the responsibility of defining, planning and implementing coastal flood protection lies with the local stakeholders, such as landowners and municipalities. Similarly, it is a municipal responsibility to define building foundation...... and flood protection levels in urban planning and long term development. These planning and protection levels are most often defined from the hazard instead of a risk perspective.The Danish Coastal Authority (DCA) guides local stakeholders on general coastal flood protection and implements the EU Flood...... Directive on flood risk reduction in appointed areas of significant flood risk. DCA is obligated to communicate the concept of risk and, in a thorough and easily comprehendible way, the hazards and uncertainties relating to this today and in the future....

  7. Flooding and Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

  8. A Socio-hydrological Flood Model for the Elbe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barendrecht, M.; Viglione, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.; Bloeschl, G.

    2017-12-01

    Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Dynamic coupled human-flood models are a promising tool to represent such phenomena and the feedbacks leading to them. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management when they are applied to real world case studies. They can help develop hypotheses about the phenomena that have been observed in the case study of interest, by describing the interactions between the social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, that play a role in the system. We discuss the case of Dresden where the 2002 flood, which was preceded by a period without floods but was less severe, resulted in a higher damage than the 2013 flood, which was preceded by the 2002 flood and a couple of less severe floods. The lower damage in 2013 may be explained by the fact that society has become aware of the flood risk and has adapted to it. Developing and applying a socio-hydrological flood model to the case of Dresden can help discover whether it is possible that the lower damage is caused by an adaptation effect, or if there are other feedbacks that can explain the observed phenomenon.

  9. Estimation of Internal Flooding Frequency for Screening Analysis of Flooding PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Jun Eon

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the internal frequency for the quantitative screening analysis of the flooding PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) with the appropriate data and estimation method. In the case of the existing flood PSA for domestic NPPs (Nuclear Power Plant), the screening analysis was performed firstly and then detailed analysis was performed for the area not screened out. For the quantitative screening analysis, the plant area based flood frequency by MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) method was used, while the component based flood frequency is used for the detailed analysis. The existing quantitative screening analysis for domestic NPPs have used data from all LWRs (Light Water Reactor), namely PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) and BWR (Boiling Water Reactor) for the internal flood frequency of the auxiliary building and turbine building. However, in the case of the primary auxiliary building, the applicability of the data from all LWRs needs to be examined carefully because of the significant difference in equipments between the PWR and BWR structure. NUREG/CR-5750 suggested the Bayesian update method with Jeffrey's noninformative prior to estimate the initiating event frequency for the flood. It, however, did not describe any procedure of the flood PSA. Recently, Fleming and Lydell suggested the internal flooding frequency in the unit of the plant operation year-pipe length (in meter) by pipe size of each specific system which is susceptible to the flooding such as the service water system and the circulating water system. They used the failure rate, the rupture conditional probability given the failure to estimate the internal flooding frequency, and the Bayesian update to reduce uncertainties. To perform the quantitative screening analysis with the method, it requires pipe length by each pipe size of the specific system per each divided area to change the concept of the component based frequency to the concept of the plant area

  10. What Is Driving the Observed Changes in Flooding in the Turkey River in Iowa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, C.; Yu, G.; Wright, D.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding can have severe societal, economic, and environmental consequences. In the United States-and worldwide-flooding causes fatalities and billions of dollars in economic loss. Recent research has pointed to changing flood risks in the Midwestern United States. However, we have a limited understanding of what natural and human factors are driving these changes. Researchers have proposed several possible explanations. Increasing intensity of short-duration summertime rainfall, reduced snow cover and earlier snow and soil thaw, changes in land surface evapotranspiration, and the effects of urbanization and agricultural management practices may all play roles in the shifts seen in the hydrologic cycle and flooding in Midwest. This study intends to look at the changes in the region on a smaller scale, whereas most previous research has examined at broad regional trends. Our focus will be on the agricultural Turkey River watershed in northeastern Iowa, where the flood hydroclimatology shows an abrupt shift around the year 1990 toward lower mean annual floods and dramatic increases in the magnitude and frequency of the largest floods. Analyses of land use, temperature, rainfall, river flow, and atmospheric properties, as well as simple continuous hydrologic simulations will aid in our understanding of the flood behavior of Turkey River and its drivers. In doing so, we hope to shed light on the causes of the changes in flooding and hydrology more generally that are taking place throughout the region.

  11. Comparison of floods non-stationarity detection methods: an Austrian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, Jose Luis; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Non-stationarities in flood regimes have a huge impact in any mid and long term flood management strategy. In particular the estimation of design floods is very sensitive to any kind of flood non-stationarity, as they should be linked to a return period, concept that can be ill defined in a non-stationary context. Therefore it is crucial when analyzing existent flood time series to detect and, where possible, attribute flood non-stationarities to changing hydroclimatic and land-use processes. This works presents the preliminary results of applying different non-stationarity detection methods on annual peak discharges time series over more than 400 gauging stations in Austria. The kind of non-stationarities analyzed include trends (linear and non-linear), breakpoints, clustering beyond stochastic randomness, and detection of flood rich/flood poor periods. Austria presents a large variety of landscapes, elevations and climates that allow us to interpret the spatial patterns obtained with the non-stationarity detection methods in terms of the dominant flood generation mechanisms.

  12. Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

  13. Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

    2017-11-01

    In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

  14. The near-term prediction of drought and flooding conditions in the northeastern United States based on extreme phases of AMO and NAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berton, Rouzbeh; Driscoll, Charles T.; Adamowski, Jan F.

    2017-10-01

    A series of hydroclimatic teleconnection patterns were identified between variations in either Atlantic or Pacific oceanic indices with precipitation and discharge anomalies in the northeastern United States. We hypothesized that temporal annual or seasonal changes in discharge could be explained by variations in extreme phases of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO index, SST: Sea Surface Temperature anomalies) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index, SLP: Sea-Level Pressure anomalies) up to three seasons in advance. The Merrimack River watershed, the fourth largest basin in New England, with a drainage area of 13,000 km2, is a compelling study site because it not only provides an opportunity to investigate the teleconnection between hydrologic variables and large-scale climate circulation patterns, but also how those patterns may become obscured by anthropogenic disturbances such as river regulation or urban development. We considered precipitation and discharge data of 21 gauging stations within the Merrimack River watershed, including the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), NH, with a median record length of 55 years beginning as early as 1904. The discharge anomalies were statistically significant (p-value ≤ 0.2) between extreme positive and negative phases of AMO (1857-2011) and NAO (1900-2011) and revealed the potential teleconnectivity of climate circulation patterns with discharge. Annual and seasonal correlations of discharge were examined with the extreme phases of AMO and NAO at zero-, one-, or two- year/season lags (total of 30 scenarios). When AMO was greater than 0.2, the strongest correlations of AMO and NAO with discharge were observed at headwater catchments. This correlation weakened downstream towards larger regulated and/or developed sub-basins. We introduced a simple approach for near-term prediction of drought and flooding events. An exponential decay function was regressed through the historic occurrence of the relative

  15. Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

    2018-05-01

    Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

  16. Flood action plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slopek, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    Safe operating procedures developed by TransAlta Utilities for dealing with flooding, resulting from upstream dam failures or extreme rainfalls, were presented. Several operating curves developed by Monenco AGRA were described, among them the No Overtopping Curve (NOC), the Safe Filling Curve (SFC), the No Spill Curve (NSC) and the Guaranteed Fill Curve (GFC). The concept of an operational comfort zone was developed and defined. A flood action plan for all operating staff was created as a guide in case of a flooding incident. Staging of a flood action plan workshop was described. Dam break scenarios pertinent to the Bow River were developed for subsequent incorporation into a Flood Action Plan Manual. Evaluation of the technical presentations made during workshops were found them to have been effective in providing operating staff with a better understanding of the procedures that they would perform in an emergency. 8 figs

  17. Flooding correlations in narrow channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. H.; Baek, W. P.; Chang, S. H.

    1999-01-01

    Heat transfer in narrow gap is considered as important phenomena in severe accidents in nuclear power plants. Also in heat removal of electric chip. Critical heat flux(CHF) in narrow gap limits the maximum heat transfer rate in narrow channel. In case of closed bottom channel, flooding limited CHF occurrence is observed. Flooding correlations will be helpful to predict the CHF in closed bottom channel. In present study, flooding data for narrow channel geometry were collected and the work to recognize the effect of the span, w and gap size, s were performed. And new flooding correlations were suggested for high-aspect-ratio geometry. Also, flooding correlation was applied to flooding limited CHF data

  18. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in a case-control study of oral squamous cell carcinoma and its increasing trend in northeastern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phusingha, Pensiri; Ekalaksananan, Tipaya; Vatanasapt, Patravoot; Loyha, Kulchaya; Promthet, Supannee; Kongyingyoes, Bunkerd; Patarapadungkit, Natcha; Chuerduangphui, Jureeporn; Pientong, Chamsai

    2017-06-01

    Human papillomavirus (HPV) is an independent risk factor for development of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). This study aimed to investigate the role of HPV infection and the trend in percentage of HPV-associated OSCC over a 5-year period in northeastern Thailand. In this case-control study, 91 exfoliated oral cell samples and 80 lesion cell samples from OSCC cases and exfoliated oral cells from 100 age/gender-matched controls were collected. HPV infection was investigated by PCR using GP5+/GP6+ primers followed by HPV genotyping using reverse line blot hybridization. Quantitative RT-PCR was used to evaluate HPV oncogene transcription. Temporal trends of HPV infection were evaluated in archived formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) OSCC tissues using in situ hybridization. HPV DNA was found in 17.5% (14/80) of lesion samples from OSCC cases and 29.7% (27/91) of exfoliated oral cell samples from the same cases. These values were significantly higher than in exfoliated oral cell samples from controls (13%, 13/100). HPV-16 was the genotype most frequently found in OSCC cases (92.8%, 13/14 infected cases). Interestingly, HPV oncogene mRNA expression was detected and correlated with OSCC cases (P cases were positive for HPV E6/E7 mRNA expression. There was a trend of increasing percentage of HPV-associated OSCC from 2005 to 2010. This was especially so for females with well-differentiated tumors in specific tongue sub-sites. We suggest that HPV infection plays an important role in oral carcinogenesis in northeastern Thailand. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Natural and Social Conditions for Economic Development: Case Study Northeastern Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Rajovic

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the natural and social conditions for the development economy in northeastern Montenegro, in the example municipalities Berane, Andrejevica and Plav in the geographical context of its utilization and use. Spatial distribution of the economy is determined by the natural and social conditions. The natural conditions in terms of the economy are of particular significance relief, climatic and hydrographic conditions, soil... According to degree benefits of natural conditions extracted are three relatively homogeneous regions. That is, which rational production of this part of north-eastern Montenegro, can be organized taking into account the natural conditions and the level of socio-economic development. For collocation and the structure of the economy have an important role in the social conditions which the economy is formed. Our research the records clearly pointed to the forefront some very obvious problems: first, is related to the population, especially in workforce, respectively, for the aging; second, that there is a strong migration of people whose intensive processes of differentiation and left behind an unfavorable structure of the population - age and education what the any negative impact on economic development; third, the characteristics of land area, its small size, inadequate and outdated processing, low technical capacity. The natural resources of this part of north-eastern Montenegro, as well as the population as a factor of economic development need to have met: economic, social, developmental organizational and management dimension to be on benefit the present, but also future generations

  20. Integrated flood disaster management and spatial information : Case studies of Netherlands and India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghawana, T. (T.); Kaur, A. (A.); Neuvel, J.M.M. (J.M.M.); Ziatanova, Z. (Z.)

    2014-01-01

    Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XL-8, 147-154, 2014www.int-arch-photogramm-remote-sens-spatial-inf-sci.net/XL-8/147/2014/doi:10.5194/isprsarchives-XL-8-147-2014Integrated flood disaster management and spatial information: Case studies ofNetherlands and IndiaS. Zlatanova1, T.

  1. Safety case methodology for decommissioning of research reactors. Assessment of the long term impact of a flooding scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vladescu, G.; Banciu, O.

    1999-01-01

    The paper contains the assessment methodology of a Safety Case fuel decommissioning of research reactors, taking into account the international approach principles. The paper also includes the assessment of a flooding scenario for a decommissioned research reactor (stage 1 of decommissioning). The scenario presents the flooding of reactor basement, radionuclide migration through environment and long term radiological impact for public. (authors)

  2. Fatal outbreak from consuming Xanthium strumarium seedlings during time of food scarcity in northeastern Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily S Gurley

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available An outbreak characterized by vomiting and rapid progression to unconsciousness and death was reported in Sylhet Distrct in northeastern Bangladesh following destructive monsoon floods in November 2007.We identified cases presenting to local hospitals and described their clinical signs and symptoms. We interviewed patients and their families to collect illness histories and generate hypotheses about exposures associated with disease. An epidemiological study was conducted in two outbreak villages to investigate risk factors for developing illness. 76 patients were identified from 9 villages; 25% (19/76 died. Common presenting symptoms included vomiting, elevated liver enzymes, and altered mental status. In-depth interviews with 33 cases revealed that 31 (94% had consumed ghagra shak, an uncultivated plant, in the hours before illness onset. Ghagra shak was consumed as a main meal by villagers due to inaccessibility of other foods following destructive monsoon flooding and rises in global food prices. Persons who ate this plant were 34.2 times more likely (95% CI 10.2 to 115.8, p-value<0.000 than others to develop vomiting and unconsciousness during the outbreak in our multivariate model. Ghagra shak is the local name for Xanthium strumarium, or common cocklebur.The consumption of Xanthium strumarium seedlings in large quantities, due to inaccessibility of other foods, caused this outbreak. The toxic chemical in the plant, carboxyatratyloside, has been previously described and eating X. strumarium seeds and seedlings has been associated with fatalities in humans and livestock. Unless people are able to meet their nutritional requirements with safe foods, they will continue to be at risk for poor health outcomes beyond undernutrition.

  3. A mixed method to evaluate burden of malaria due to flooding and waterlogging in Mengcheng County, China: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Guoyong; Gao, Lu; Li, Xuewen; Zhou, Maigeng; Liu, Qiyong; Ren, Hongyan; Jiang, Baofa

    2014-01-01

    Malaria is a highly climate-sensitive vector-borne infectious disease that still represents a significant public health problem in Huaihe River Basin. However, little comprehensive information about the burden of malaria caused by flooding and waterlogging is available from this region. This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of flooding and waterlogging on the burden of malaria in a county of Anhui Province, China. A mixed method evaluation was conducted. A case-crossover study was firstly performed to evaluate the relationship between daily number of cases of malaria and flooding and waterlogging from May to October 2007 in Mengcheng County, China. Stratified Cox models were used to examine the lagged time and hazard ratios (HRs) of the risk of flooding and waterlogging on malaria. Years lived with disability (YLDs) of malaria attributable to flooding and waterlogging were then estimated based on the WHO framework of calculating potential impact fraction in the Global Burden of Disease study. A total of 3683 malaria were notified during the study period. The strongest effect was shown with a 25-day lag for flooding and a 7-day lag for waterlogging. Multivariable analysis showed that an increased risk of malaria was significantly associated with flooding alone [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR)  = 1.467, 95% CI = 1.257, 1.713], waterlogging alone (AHR = 1.879, 95% CI = 1.696, 2.121), and flooding and waterlogging together (AHR = 2.926, 95% CI = 2.576, 3.325). YLDs per 1000 of malaria attributable to flooding alone, waterlogging alone and flooding and waterlogging together were 0.009 per day, 0.019 per day and 0.022 per day, respectively. Flooding and waterlogging can lead to higher burden of malaria in the study area. Public health action should be taken to avoid and control a potential risk of malaria epidemics after these two weather disasters.

  4. Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: The Case of Large Floods

    OpenAIRE

    Ghimire, Ramesh; Ferreira, Susana

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the impact of large floods on the risk of civil conflict in a sample of 125 countries between 1985 and 2009. We control for endogeneity of floods and the potential spatial and temporal dependency of civil conflict. We find that floods increase the probability of conflict incidence through a negative impact on short-run GDP growth.

  5. Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, Colin; Fayne, Jessica

    2016-01-01

    Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data

  6. Short-term effects of floods on Japanese encephalitis in Nanchong, China, 2007-2012: A time-stratified case-crossover study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Feifei; Liu, Zhidong; Zhang, Caixia; Jiang, Baofa

    2016-09-01

    This time-stratified case-crossover study aimed to quantify the impact of floods on daily Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases from 2007 to 2012 in Nanchong city of Sichuan Province, China. Using conditional logistic regression analysis, we calculated the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) at different lagged days, adjusting for daily average temperature (AT) and daily average relative humidity (ARH). A total of 370 JE cases were notified during the study period, with the median patient age being 4.2years. The seasonal pattern of JE cases clustered in July and August during the study period. Floods were significantly associated with an increased number of JE cases from lag 23 to lag 24, with the strongest lag effect at lag 23 (OR=2.00, 95% CI: 1.14-3.52). Similarly, AT and ARH were positively associated with daily JE cases from lag 0 to lag 8 and from lag 0 to lag 9, respectively. Floods, with AT and ARH, can be used to forecast JE outbreaks in the study area. Based on the results of this study, recommendations include undertaking control measures before the number of cases increases, especially for regions with similar geographic, climatic, and socio-economic conditions as those in the study area. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Blending satellite data and RADAR tool for rapid flood damage assessment in Agriculture: A case study in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarnath, Giriraj; Inada, Yoshiaki; Inoue, Ryosuke; Alahacoon, Niranga; Smakhtin, Vladimir

    2014-05-01

    During the catastrophic flooding it is critically important to estimate losses as it is essential for facilitating good decision making at the district, province and national levels of government and to appraise aid agencies for necessary assistance. Flood loss estimates can also be used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of alternative approaches to strengthening flood control measures. In the case of Sri Lanka there were limited knowledge and application system exist for carrying out rapid damage assessment for Agriculture in Sri Lanka. FAO has developed the tool "Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine" (RADAR) based on theoretical approach that uses simple tools for assessing the impact on agriculture of a disastrous event. There are two knowledge bases that contain information needed for calculation of the value loss or damage. The procedure of rapid impact assessment implies the use of knowledge-bases, database and GIS. In this study, the user friendly application of RADAR system has been developed. Three components were considered including agriculture, livestock and farmers asset to estimate the losses. The application will allow estimating flood damage at various scales and this being tested at district level and specific example for the 2011 floods in Sri Lanka. In order to understand flood inundation cycle, time-series optical MODIS satellite data (2000-2011) and microwave ALOS PALSAR (2006-2011) were used to derive annual flood extent, flood duration and recurrent areas to identify flood risk and impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture. This study demonstrates how RADAR & satellite-based flood products can be effectively used for rapid damage assessment and managing the floods.

  8. Urbanism, climate change and floods: Case of Tlemcen city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayat Adjim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available After a drought during the 1990s, Tlemcen has experienced heavy rainfall in recent years which caused several floods. They have become frequent and usually cause large damage. We then asked ourselves questions about the reasons for this deregulation of rainfall and floods. We have assumed that climate change has led to deregulation of precipitation and that the urbanization and morphology of the site are the causes of the floods. For this, we analyzed the rainfall data and study the configuration of the town of Tlemcen. We noticed then that Tlemcen town undergoes the climate changes effects per a diminution of the multi-annual mean of rainfall between 1974 and 2008, and a slight displacement of the rainfall from April to November after 2008. Finally, the principal reason of floods is the thoughtless urban sprawl on the water courses also favored by an unfavourable topography.

  9. Leptospirosis following a major flood in Central Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J K G; Young, M M; Wilson, K L; Craig, S B

    2013-03-01

    Throughout December 2010 and January 2011, Queensland experienced widespread flooding due to unusually protracted and heavy rainfalls. In mid-January 2011, four individuals from a small community in Central Queensland were hospitalized with leptospirosis. A further five cases were subsequently identified from around Central Queensland, bringing the total to nine. Microscopic agglutination testing found that serovar Arborea (Leptospira borgpetersenii serovar Arborea) was presumptively responsible for leptospirosis in seven of nine confirmed cases. Serovars Hardjo and Australis were identified in samples from two remaining cases. All cases had exposure to flood water. No single exposure source was identified. This is the first reported outbreak of leptospirosis in Central Queensland and the first report of leptospirosis cases associated with flood water inundation in Queensland. Public health authorities should continue to promote awareness of leptospirosis in flood-affected populations. Healthcare providers must maintain a high level of suspicion for leptospirosis during and after flood events.

  10. A Combined Hydrological and Hydraulic Model for Flood Prediction in Vietnam Applied to the Huong River Basin as a Test Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dang Thanh Mai

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available A combined hydrological and hydraulic model is presented for flood prediction in Vietnam. This model is applied to the Huong river basin as a test case study. Observed flood flows and water surface levels of the 2002–2005 flood seasons are used for model calibration, and those of the 2006–2007 flood seasons are used for validation of the model. The physically based distributed hydrologic model WetSpa is used for predicting the generation and propagation of flood flows in the mountainous upper sub-basins, and proves to predict flood flows accurately. The Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS hydraulic model is applied to simulate flood flows and inundation levels in the downstream floodplain, and also proves to predict water levels accurately. The predicted water profiles are used for mapping of inundations in the floodplain. The model may be useful in developing flood forecasting and early warning systems to mitigate losses due to flooding in Vietnam.

  11. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

  12. Impact of a flood disaster on sediment toxicity in a major river system - the Elbe flood 2002 as a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oetken, Matthias; Stachel, Burkhard; Pfenninger, Markus; Oehlmann, Joerg

    2005-01-01

    The ecotoxicological implications of a flooding disaster were investigated with the exceptional Elbe flood in August 2002 as an example. Sediment samples were taken shortly after the flood at 37 sites. For toxicity assessment the midge Chironomus riparius (Insecta) and the mudsnail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gastropoda) were exposed to the sediment samples for 28 days. For a subset of 19 sampling sites, the contamination level and the biological response of both species were also recorded before the flood in 2000. The direct comparison of biological responses at identical sites revealed significant differences for samples taken before and immediately after the flood. After flood sediments of the river Elbe caused both higher emergence rates in the midge and higher numbers of embryos in the mudsnail. Contrary to expectations the toxicity of the sediments decreased after the flood, probably because of a dilution of toxic substances along the river Elbe and a reduction in bioavailability of pollutants as a result of increasing TOC values after the flood. - The extraordinary Elbe flood in August 2002 did not result in an overall increase of environmental contamination

  13. Understanding the Unusual 2017 Monsoon and Floods in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Palash, W.; Hasan, M. A.; Nusrat, F.

    2017-12-01

    Driven primarily by the South Asian Monsoon, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin system collectively drains intense precipitation for an area of more than 1.5 million square kilometers during the wet summer season. Bangladesh, being the lowest riparian country in the system, experiences recurrent floods and immense suffering to its population. The 2017 monsoon season was quite unusual in terms of the characteristics of the precipitation received in the basin. The monsoon was spread out over a much larger time span (April-October) compared to the average monsoon season (June-September). Although the monsoon does not typically start until June in Bangladesh, the 2017 season started much earlier in April with unusually heavy precipitation in the Meghna basin region and caused major damage to agriculture in northeastern Bangladesh. The rainfall continued in several record-breaking pulses, compared to the typical one or two large waves. One of the largest pulses occurred in early August with very high in intensity and volume, causing ECMWF to issue a major warning about widespread flooding in Bangladesh, Northern India, and Eastern Nepal. This record flood event impacted over 40 million people in the above regions, causing major damage to life and infrastructure. Although the Brahmaputra rose above the danger level several times this season, the Ganges was unusually low, thus sparing downstream areas from disastrous floods. However, heavy precipitation continued until October, causing urban flooding in Dhaka and Chittagong - and worsening sanitation and public health conditions in southern Bangladesh - currently undergoing a terrible humanitarian crisis involving Rohingya refugees from the Myanmar. Despite marked improvement in flood forecasting systems in recent years, the 2017 floods identified critical gaps in our understanding of the flooding phenomena and limitations of dissemination in these regions. In this study, we investigate 1) the unusual

  14. Study on effectiveness of flood control based on risk level: case study of Kampung Melayu Village and Bukit Duri Village

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farid Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, experiences flood which causes activities disruption and losses almost every year. Many studies have been done to mitigate the impact of flooding. Most of them focus on reducing the inundated area as an indicator of the effectiveness of flood control. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of several flood control alternatives based on risk level reduction. The case study is located in Kampung Melayu Village and Bukit Duri Village which are densely populated with several economic area and almost every year experiencing severe flooding in Jakarta. Risk level analysis was carried out by the method based on guidelines issued by the Head of National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB No. 2/2012 with few modifications. The analysis is conducted on five alternatives of flood control which are diversion channel to East Flood Canal (KBT, diversion channel to the West Flood Canal (KBB in Pasar Minggu, river improvement, capacity enhancement on all components, and capacity enhancement focusing on one component. From the results, it is showed that enhancing capacity which focus on preparedness component by two levels are the best in terms of investment value to risk level reduction.

  15. How do we best estimate fluvial flood risk in urban environments? : The case of the city of Eilenburg, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, Elisa; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Mukolwe, Micah

    2015-04-01

    Flooding is one of the most impactful natural hazards. In particular, by looking at the data of damages from natural hazards in Europe collected in the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) one can see a significant increase over the past four decades of both frequency of floods and associated economic damages. Similarly, dramatic trends are also found by analyzing other types of flood losses, such as the number of people affected by floods, homeless, injured or killed. To deal with the aforementioned increase of flood risk, more and more efforts are being made to promote integrated flood risk management, for instance, at the end of 2007, the European Community (EC) issued the Flood Directive (F.D.) 2007/60/EC. One of the major innovations was that the F.D. 2007/60/C requires Member State to carry out risk maps and then take appropriate measures to reduce the evaluated risk. The main goal of this research was to estimate flood damaging using a computer code based on a recently developed method (KULTURisk, www.kulturisk.eu) and to compare the estimated damage with the observed one. The study area was the municipality of Eilenburg, which in 2002 was subjected to a destructive flood event. Were produced flood damage maps with new procedures (e.g. KULTURisk) and compared the estimates with observed data. This study showed the possibility to extend the lesson learned with the Eilenburg case study in other similar contexts. The outcomes of this test provided interesting insights about the flood risk mapping, which are expected to contribute to raise awareness to the flooding issues,to plan (structural and/or non-structural) measures of flood risk reduction and to support better land-use and urban planning.

  16. Numerical simulation of flood barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srb, Pavel; Petrů, Michal; Kulhavý, Petr

    This paper deals with testing and numerical simulating of flood barriers. The Czech Republic has been hit by several very devastating floods in past years. These floods caused several dozens of causalities and property damage reached billions of Euros. The development of flood measures is very important, especially for the reduction the number of casualties and the amount of property damage. The aim of flood control measures is the detention of water outside populated areas and drainage of water from populated areas as soon as possible. For new flood barrier design it is very important to know its behaviour in case of a real flood. During the development of the barrier several standardized tests have to be carried out. Based on the results from these tests numerical simulation was compiled using Abaqus software and some analyses were carried out. Based on these numerical simulations it will be possible to predict the behaviour of barriers and thus improve their design.

  17. Floods and Flash Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

  18. The role of water and sediment connectivity in integrated flood management: a case study on the island of Saint Lucia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetten, Victor; van Westen, Cees; Ettema, Janneke; van den Bout, Bastian

    2016-04-01

    Disaster Risk Management combines the effects of natural hazards in time and space, with elements at risk, such as ourselves, infrastructure or other elements that have a value in our society. The risk in this case is defined as the sum of potential consequences of one or more hazards and can be expressed as potential damages. Generally, we attempt to reduce risk by better risk management, such as increase of resilience, protection and spatial planning. Caribbean islands are hit by hurricanes and tropical storms with a frequency of 1 to 2 every 10 years, with devastating consequences in terms of flash floods and landslides. The islands basically consist of a central (volcanic) mountain range, with medium and small sized catchments radiating outward towards the ocean. The coastal zone is inhabited, while the ring road network is essential for functioning of the island. An example of a case study is given for the island of Saint Lucia. Recorded rainfall intensities during tropical storms of 12 rainfall stations surpass 200 mm/h, causing immediate flash floods. Very often however, sediment is a forgotten variable in flash flood management: protection and mitigation measures as well as spatial planning all focus on the hydrology, the extent and depth of flood water, and sometimes of flood velocities. With recent developments, the opensource model LISEM includes hydrology and runoff, flooding, and erosion, transport and deposition both in runoff, channel flow and flood waters. We will discuss the practical solutions we implemented in connecting slopes, river channels and floodplains in terms of water and sediment, and the strength and weaknesses we have encountered so far. Catchment analysis shows two main effects: on the one hand in almost all cases upstream flooding serves as a temporary water storage that prevents further damage downstream, while on the other hand, erosion upstream often blocks bridges and decreases channel storage downstream, which increases the

  19. Reconstruction of the 1945 Wieringermeer Flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoes, O. A. C.; Hut, R. W.; van de Giesen, N. C.; Boomgaard, M.

    2013-03-01

    The present state-of-the-art in flood risk assessment focuses on breach models, flood propagation models, and economic modelling of flood damage. However, models need to be validated with real data to avoid erroneous conclusions. Such reference data can either be historic data, or can be obtained from controlled experiments. The inundation of the Wieringermeer polder in the Netherlands in April 1945 is one of the few examples for which sufficient historical information is available. The objective of this article is to compare the flood simulation with flood data from 1945. The context, the breach growth process and the flood propagation are explained. Key findings for current flood risk management addresses the importance of the drainage canal network during the inundation of a polder, and the uncertainty that follows from not knowing the breach growth parameters. This case study shows that historical floods provide valuable data for the validation of models and reveal lessons that are applicable in current day flood risk management.

  20. Estimation of the Relative Severity of Floods in Small Ungauged Catchments for Preliminary Observations on Flash Flood Preparedness: A Case Study in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2012-01-01

    An increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration has caused significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as many other parts of the World. Since such floods usually accompanied by rapid runoff and debris flow rise quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage, this study presents a new flash flood indexing methodology to promptly provide preliminary observations regarding emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters in small ungauged catchments. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observed data in the two selected small ungauged catchments. The relative flood severity factors quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs are standardized by the highest recorded maximum value, and then averaged to obtain the flash flood index only for flash flood events in each study catchment. It is expected that the regression equations between the proposed flash flood index and rainfall characteristics can provide the basis database of the preliminary information for forecasting the local flood severity in order to facilitate flash flood preparedness in small ungauged catchments. PMID:22690208

  1. TWO-DIMENSIONAL MODELLING OF ACCIDENTAL FLOOD WAVES PROPAGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorand Catalin STOENESCU

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The study presented in this article describes a modern modeling methodology of the propagation of accidental flood waves in case a dam break; this methodology is applied in Romania for the first time for the pilot project „Breaking scenarios of Poiana Uzului dam”. The calculation programs used help us obtain a bidimensional calculation (2D of the propagation of flood waves, taking into consideration the diminishing of the flood wave on a normal direction to the main direction; this diminishing of the flood wave is important in the case of sinuous courses of water or with urban settlements very close to the minor river bed. In the case of Poiana Uzului dam, 2 scenarios were simulated with the help of Ph.D. Eng. Dan Stematiu, plausible scenarios but with very little chances of actually producing. The results were presented as animations with flooded surfaces at certain time steps successively.

  2. Towards a Risk Governance Culture in Flood Policy—Findings from the Implementation of the “Floods Directive” in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klaus Wagner

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The European Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks is likely to cause changes to flood policy in Germany and other member states. With its risk governance approach, it introduces a holistic and catchment-oriented flood risk management and tries to overcome shortcomings of the past, such as the event-driven construction of mainly structural measures. However, there is leeway for interpretation in implementing the directive. The present paper gives an overview on the implementation of the floods directive in Germany and is divided into two qualitative empirical case studies. Case Study I investigates the level of acceptance of the floods directive among decision-makers in the German part of the Rhine river basin. Findings show that the federal states respond differently to the impulse given by the floods directive. Whereas some decision-makers opt for a pro-forma implementation, others take it as a starting point to systematically improve their flood policy. Case Study II presents recommendations for a successful implementation of flood risk management plans that have been developed within a project for the water authority in Bavaria and might be interesting for other federal/member states. For a participation of the interested parties on the level of shared decision-making, the planning process has to work on sub-management-plan level (15–20 communities. The water resources authority has to adopt a multi-faceted role (expert, responsible or interested party depending on the discussed topics.

  3. May flood-poor periods be more dangerous than flood-rich periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, Jose Luis; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Kuil, Linda; Bloeschl, Guenter

    2014-05-01

    River floods are among the most devastating natural hazards experienced by populations that, since the earliest recorded civilisations, have settled in floodplains because they offer favourable conditions for trade, agriculture, and economic development. The occurrence of a flood may cause loss of lives and tremendous economic damages and, therefore, is rightly seen as a very negative event by the communities involved. Occurrence of many floods in a row is, of course, even more frustrating and is rightly considered a unbearable calamity. Unfortunately, the occurrence of many floods in a limited number of consecutive years is not unusual. In many places in the world, it has been observed that extreme floods do not arrive randomly but cluster in time into flood-poor and flood-rich periods consistent with the Hurst effect. If this is the case, when are the people more in danger? When should people be more scared? In flood-poor or flood-rich periods? In this work, a Socio-Hydrology model (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014) is used to show that, maybe counter-intuitively, flood-poor periods may be more dangerous than flood-rich periods. The model is a conceptualisation of a hypothetical setting of a city at a river where a community evolves, making choices between flood management options on the floodplain. The most important feedbacks between the economic, political, technological and hydrological processes of the evolution of that community are represented in the model. In particular, the model also accounts in a dynamic way for the evolution of the the community awareness to flood risk. Occurrence of floods tends to increase peoples' recognition that their property is in an area that is potentially at risk of flooding, both at the scales of individuals and communities, which is one of the main reasons why flood coping actions are taken. It is shown through examples that frequent flood events may result in moderate damages because they ensure that the

  4. Risk assessment of urban flood disaster in Jingdezhen City based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, D. C.; Huang, J.; Wang, H. M.; Wang, Z. Q.; Wang, W. Q.

    2017-08-01

    The research of urban flood risk assessment and management are of great academic and practical importance, which has become a widespread concern throughout the world. It’s significant to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk before making the risk response measures. In this study, the urban region of Jingdezhen City is selected as the study area. The assessment indicators are selected from four aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability, by consideration of the formation process of urban flood risk. And then, a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model is developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Geographic Information System(GIS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of flood risk in Jingdezhen City is analysed. The results show that the risk decreases gradually from the centre line of Changjiang River to the surrounding, and the areas of high flood disaster risk is decreasing from 2010 to 2013 while the risk areas are more concentred. The flood risk of the areas along the Changjiang River is the largest, followed by the low-lying areas in Changjiang District. And the risk is also large in Zhushan District where the population, the industries and commerce are concentrated. The flood risk in the western part of Changjiang District and the north-eastern part of the study area is relatively low. The results can provide scientific support for flood control construction and land development planning in Jingdezhen City.

  5. Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, C.; Fayne, Jessica

    2016-01-01

    Floods are the costliest natural disaster (United Nations 2004), causing approximately6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone (Doocy et al. 2013).Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD(Munich Re 2013). Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries (Davies et al. 2014).Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change (IPCC 2007). Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assessflooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure.

  6. Learning to Read in Ratanakiri: A Case Study from Northeastern Cambodia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregerson, Marilyn J.

    2009-01-01

    In Ratanakiri province, northeastern Cambodia, the majority of the local people are native speakers of ethnic minority languages. Primarily subsistence farmers, they use their own language to communicate with others in their villages, and as they work in their rice fields. A baseline survey taken between 1996 and 1998 in five such villages showed…

  7. Exploring adaptation pathways in terms of flood risk management at a city scale – a case study for Shanghai city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Qian

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities are vulnerable to flooding and historical events, for instance Hurricane Sandy in 2012, have showed that losses in the cities are costly. In the context of climate change and socio-economic development, future flood risk will inevitably rise; adaptive measures, for instance upgrading of sea dikes and floodwalls, improving drainage systems and implementing green infrastructures, are proposed under the changing environment in the cities. A question of when to implement what measures in the cities over time is then brought up. The approach of dynamic adaptive policy pathways is applied to formulate adaptation pathways for a case study of Shanghai to explore the optimal investment strategy in context of deep uncertainties. Adaptation concept is not only aiming to achieve optimal strategy but also to determine when to implement the measures. The adaptation pathways for three types of floods (coastal flood, river flood and pluvial flood in Shanghai were formulated through a preliminary qualitative analysis. This could provide an insight to the long-term feasibility of adaptive flood risk strategies. This research could provide a rational indication for policy/decision makers on future adaptation strategy at the city scale.

  8. Flood Mapping: Assessing the uncertainty associated with flood inundation modelling. A case study of the Mora River, Sweden

    OpenAIRE

    Åberg, Isabelle

    2017-01-01

    Expansion of cities and major infrastructure projects lead to changes in land use and river flows. The probability of flooding is expected to increase in the future as a result of these changes in combination with climate change. Hydraulic models can be used to obtain simulated water levels to investigate the risk of flooding and identify areas that might potentially be flooded due to climate change. Since a model is a simplification of the reality it is important to be aware of a model’s unc...

  9. Modelling the benefits of flood emergency management measures in reducing damages: a case study on Sondrio, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Molinari

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The European "Floods Directive" 2007/60/EU has produced an important shift from a traditional approach to flood risk management centred only on hazard analysis and forecast to a newer one which encompasses other aspects relevant to decision-making and which reflect recent research advances in both hydraulic engineering and social studies on disaster risk. This paper accordingly proposes a way of modelling the benefits of flood emergency management interventions calculating the possible damages by taking into account exposure, vulnerability, and expected damage reduction. The results of this model can be used to inform decisions and choices for the implementation of flood emergency management measures. A central role is played by expected damages, which are the direct and indirect consequence of the occurrence of floods in exposed and vulnerable urban systems. How damages should be defined and measured is a key question that this paper tries to address. The Floods Directive suggests that mitigation measures taken to reduce flood impact need to be evaluated also by means of a cost–benefit analysis. The paper presents a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of early warning for flash floods, considering its potential impact in reducing direct physical damage, and it assesses the general benefit in regard to other types of damages and losses compared with the emergency management costs. The methodology is applied to the case study area of the city of Sondrio in the northern Alpine region of Italy. A critical discussion follows the application. Its purpose is to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of available models for quantifying direct physical damage and of the general model proposed, given the current state of the art in damage and loss assessment.

  10. Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Heidari

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possibility of flood overtopping. Different flood mitigation alternatives are investigated from various aspects in the Dez and Karun river floodplain areas as a case study in south west of IRAN. The results show that detention dam and flood diversion are the best alternatives of flood mitigation methods as well as enforcing the flood control purpose of upstream multipurpose reservoirs. Dyke and levees are not mostly justifiable because of negative impact on down stream by enhancing routed flood peak discharge magnitude and flood damages as well.

  11. An approach for flood monitoring by the combined use of Landsat 8 optical imagery and COSMO-SkyMed radar imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Xiaohua; Luo, Xin; Liu, Shuguang; Xie, Huan; Chao, Wei; Liu, Shuang; Liu, Shijie; Makhinov, A. N.; Makhinova, A. F.; Jiang, Yuying

    2018-02-01

    Remote sensing techniques offer potential for effective flood detection with the advantages of low-cost, large-scale, and real-time surface observations. The easily accessible data sources of optical remote sensing imagery provide abundant spectral information for accurate surface water body extraction, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) systems represent a powerful tool for flood monitoring because of their all-weather capability. This paper introduces a new approach for flood monitoring by the combined use of both Landsat 8 optical imagery and COSMO-SkyMed radar imagery. Specifically, the proposed method applies support vector machine and the active contour without edges model for water extent determination in the periods before and during the flood, respectively. A map difference method is used for the flood inundation analysis. The proposed approach is particularly suitable for large-scale flood monitoring, and it was tested on a serious flood that occurred in northeastern China in August 2013, which caused immense loss of human lives and properties. High overall accuracies of 97.46% for the optical imagery and 93.70% for the radar imagery are achieved by the use of the techniques presented in this study. The results show that about 12% of the whole study area was inundated, corresponding to 5466 km2 of land surface.

  12. USING GIS TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOOD. CASE STUDY: SOLONEŢ RIVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. TIPLEA

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Using GIS to Identify Potential Areas Susceptible to Flood. Case Study: Soloneţ River. In this study, we aim to analyze the impact of different peak flows in territory and also a better understanding of the dynamic of a river flow. The methodology used for flood zone delimitation is based on a quantitative analysis model which requires the use of mathematical, physical and statistical operations in order to emphasize the relations between the different variables that were implied (discharges, grain size, terrain morphology, soil saturation, vegetation etc.. The results cannot be expected to be completely accurate but can provide a good representation of the process. Validation of results will inevitably be difficult and should be measured in the field. The information resulting from this study could be useful for raising awareness about both hazards and possible mitigation measure, a key component of disaster risk reduction planning.

  13. The impact of flooding on people living with HIV: a case study from the Ohangwena Region, Namibia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthonj, Carmen; Nkongolo, Odon T; Schmitz, Peter; Hango, Johannes N; Kistemann, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    can be transferred to any flood-affected region that has a high HIV prevalence and relies mainly on subsistence agriculture. They serve as a model case for analysing vulnerabilities related to health and health service provision under disaster conditions. The impact will vary according to the physical, geographical, climatological, social, and behavioural characteristics of the region and the people affected. In the Ohangwena region, a disaster risk management mechanism is already in place which addresses people with HIV during flooding. However, preparedness could be improved further by applying the HIV and Flooding Framework.

  14. The impact of flooding on people living with HIV: a case study from the Ohangwena Region, Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Anthonj

    2015-03-01

    the HIV and Flooding Framework are not specific to Ohangwena and can be transferred to any flood-affected region that has a high HIV prevalence and relies mainly on subsistence agriculture. They serve as a model case for analysing vulnerabilities related to health and health service provision under disaster conditions. The impact will vary according to the physical, geographical, climatological, social, and behavioural characteristics of the region and the people affected. In the Ohangwena region, a disaster risk management mechanism is already in place which addresses people with HIV during flooding. However, preparedness could be improved further by applying the HIV and Flooding Framework.

  15. Flooding PSA by considering the operating experience data of Korean PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joon Eon

    2007-01-01

    The existing flooding Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) was updated to reflect the Korean plant specific operating experience data into the flooding frequency to improve the PSA quality. Both the Nuclear Power Experience (NPE) database and the Korea Nuclear PIPE Failure Database (NuPIPE) databases were used in this study, and from these databases, only the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) data were used for the flooding frequencies of the flooding areas in the primary auxiliary building. With these databases and a Bayesian method, the flooding frequencies for the flooding areas were estimated. Subsequently, the Core Damage Frequency (CDF) for the flooding PSA of the UlChiN (UCN) unit 3 and 4 plants based on the Korean Standard Nuclear power Plant (KSNP) internal full-power PSA model was recalculated. The evaluation results showed that sixteen flooding events are potentially significant according to the screening criterion, while there were two flooding events exceeding the screening criterion of the existing UCN 3 and 4 flooding PSA. The result was compared with two kinds of cases: 1) the flooding frequency and CDF from the method of the existing flooding PSA with the PWR and Boiled Water Reactor (BWR) data of the NPE database and the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) method and 2) the flooding frequency and CDF with the NPE database (PWR and BWR data), NuPIPE database, and a Bayesian method. From the comparison, a difference in CDF results was revealed more clearly between the CDF from this study and case 2) than between case 1) and case 2). That is, the number of flooding events exceeding the screen criterion further increased when only the PWR data were used for the primary auxiliary building than when the Korean specific data were used

  16. Numerical Analysis of Flood modeling of upper Citarum River under Extreme Flood Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-02-01

    This paper focuses on how to approach the numerical method and computation to analyse flood parameters. Water level and flood discharge are the flood parameters solved by numerical methods approach. Numerical method performed on this paper for unsteady flow conditions have strengths and weaknesses, among others easily applied to the following cases in which the boundary irregular flow. The study area is in upper Citarum Watershed, Bandung, West Java. This paper uses computation approach with Force2 programming and HEC-RAS to solve the flow problem in upper Citarum River, to investigate and forecast extreme flood condition. Numerical analysis based on extreme flood events that have occurred in the upper Citarum watershed. The result of water level parameter modeling and extreme flood discharge compared with measurement data to analyse validation. The inundation area about flood that happened in 2010 is about 75.26 square kilometres. Comparing two-method show that the FEM analysis with Force2 programs has the best approach to validation data with Nash Index is 0.84 and HEC-RAS that is 0.76 for water level. For discharge data Nash Index obtained the result analysis use Force2 is 0.80 and with use HEC-RAS is 0.79.

  17. The "Prediflood" database of historical floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) AD 1035-2013, and its potential applications in flood analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barriendos, M.; Ruiz-Bellet, J. L.; Tuset, J.; Mazón, J.; Balasch, J. C.; Pino, D.; Ayala, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    "Prediflood" is a database of historical floods that occurred in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), between the 11th century and the 21st century. More than 2700 flood cases are catalogued, and more than 1100 flood events. This database contains information acquired under modern historiographical criteria and it is, therefore, suitable for use in multidisciplinary flood analysis techniques, such as meteorological or hydraulic reconstructions.

  18. Flood probability quantification for road infrastructure: Data-driven spatial-statistical approach and case study applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalantari, Zahra; Cavalli, Marco; Cantone, Carolina; Crema, Stefano; Destouni, Georgia

    2017-03-01

    Climate-driven increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events is expected to impose greater strain on the built environment and major transport infrastructure, such as roads and railways. This study develops a data-driven spatial-statistical approach to quantifying and mapping the probability of flooding at critical road-stream intersection locations, where water flow and sediment transport may accumulate and cause serious road damage. The approach is based on novel integration of key watershed and road characteristics, including also measures of sediment connectivity. The approach is concretely applied to and quantified for two specific study case examples in southwest Sweden, with documented road flooding effects of recorded extreme rainfall. The novel contributions of this study in combining a sediment connectivity account with that of soil type, land use, spatial precipitation-runoff variability and road drainage in catchments, and in extending the connectivity measure use for different types of catchments, improve the accuracy of model results for road flood probability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Governance in support of integrated flood risk management? The case of Romania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vinke-de Kruijf, Joanne; Kuks, Stefanus M.M.; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

    2015-01-01

    Building on an existing model of governance, this paper aims to assess the supportiveness of Romania׳s structural flood risk governance context towards integrated flood risk management. We assert that a governance structure supports the development and implementation of integrated flood risk

  20. Analysis of flood vulnerability in urban area; a case study in deli watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indrawan, I.; Siregar, R. I.

    2018-03-01

    Based on the National Disaster Management Agency of Indonesia, the distribution of disasters and victims died until the year 2016 is the largest flood disaster. Deli River is a river that has the greatest flood potential through Medan City. In Deli Watershed, flow discharge affected by the discharge from its tributaries, the high rainfall intensity and human activity. We should anticipate reducing and preventing the occurrence of losses due to flood damage. One of the ways to anticipate flood disaster is to predict which part of urban area is would flood. The objective of this study is to analyze the flood inundation areas due to overflow of Deli River through Medan city. Two-dimensional modeling by HEC-RAS 5.0.3 is a widely used hydraulic software tool developed by the U.S Army Corps of Engineers, which combined with the HEC-HMS for hydrological modeling. The result shows flood vulnerability in Medan by a map to present the spot that vulnerable about flood. The flooded area due to the overflowing of Deli River consists of seven sub districts, namely Medan Johor, Medan Selayang, Medan Kota, Medan Petisah, Medan Maimun, Medan Perjuangan and Medan Barat.

  1. Digital technologies in support of flood resilience: A case study for Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, W.; McCallum, I.; See, L.; Dugar, S.; Laso-Bayas, J.C.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents ongoing efforts to support flood resilience in the Karnali basin in Nepal through the provision of different forms of digital technology. Flood Risk Geo-Wiki is an online visualization and crowdsourcing tool, which has been adapted to display flood risk maps at the global scale as well as information of relevance to planners and the community at the local level. Community-based flood risk maps, which have traditionally been drawn on paper, are being digitized and integrate...

  2. Interconnected ponds operation for flood hazard distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putra, S. S.; Ridwan, B. W.

    2016-05-01

    The climatic anomaly, which comes with extreme rainfall, will increase the flood hazard in an area within a short period of time. The river capacity in discharging the flood is not continuous along the river stretch and sensitive to the flood peak. This paper contains the alternatives on how to locate the flood retention pond that are physically feasible to reduce the flood peak. The flood ponds were designed based on flood curve number criteria (TR-55, USDA) with the aim of rapid flood peak capturing and gradual flood retuning back to the river. As a case study, the hydrologic condition of upper Ciliwung river basin with several presumed flood pond locations was conceptually designed. A fundamental tank model that reproducing the operation of interconnected ponds was elaborated to achieve the designed flood discharge that will flows to the downstream area. The flood hazard distribution status, as the model performance criteria, will be computed within Ciliwung river reach in Manggarai Sluice Gate spot. The predicted hazard reduction with the operation of the interconnected retention area result had been bench marked with the normal flow condition.

  3. Two dimensional modelling of flood flows and suspended sedimenttransport: the case of the Brenta River, Veneto (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Martini

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a numerical model for the simulation of flood waves and suspended sediment transport in a lowland river basin of North Eastern Italy. The two dimensional depth integrated momentum and continuity equations are modified to take into account the bottom irregularities that strongly affect the hydrodynamics in partially dry areas, as for example, in the first stages of an inundation process or in tidal flow. The set of equations are solved with a standard Galerkin finite element method using a semi-implicit numerical scheme where the effects of both the small channel network and the regulation devices on the flood wave propagation are accounted for. Transport of suspended sediment and bed evolution are coupled with the hydrodynamics using an appropriate form of the advection-dispersion equation and Exner's equation. Applications to a case study are presented in which the effects of extreme flooding on the Brenta River (Italy are examined. Urban and rural flood risk areas are identified and the effects of a alleviating action based on a diversion channel flowing into Venice Lagoon are simulated. The results show that this solution strongly reduces the flood risk in the downstream areas and can provide an important source of sediment for the Venice Lagoon. Finally, preliminary results of the sediment dispersion due to currents and waves in the Venice Lagoon are presented.

  4. Two dimensional modelling of flood flows and suspended sedimenttransport: the case of the Brenta River, Veneto (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, P.; Carniello, L.; Avanzi, C.

    2004-03-01

    The paper presents a numerical model for the simulation of flood waves and suspended sediment transport in a lowland river basin of North Eastern Italy. The two dimensional depth integrated momentum and continuity equations are modified to take into account the bottom irregularities that strongly affect the hydrodynamics in partially dry areas, as for example, in the first stages of an inundation process or in tidal flow. The set of equations are solved with a standard Galerkin finite element method using a semi-implicit numerical scheme where the effects of both the small channel network and the regulation devices on the flood wave propagation are accounted for. Transport of suspended sediment and bed evolution are coupled with the hydrodynamics using an appropriate form of the advection-dispersion equation and Exner's equation. Applications to a case study are presented in which the effects of extreme flooding on the Brenta River (Italy) are examined. Urban and rural flood risk areas are identified and the effects of a alleviating action based on a diversion channel flowing into Venice Lagoon are simulated. The results show that this solution strongly reduces the flood risk in the downstream areas and can provide an important source of sediment for the Venice Lagoon. Finally, preliminary results of the sediment dispersion due to currents and waves in the Venice Lagoon are presented.

  5. Identification of flood-rich and flood-poor periods in flood series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

    2015-04-01

    Recently, a general concern about non-stationarity of flood series has arisen, as changes in catchment response can be driven by several factors, such as climatic and land-use changes. Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Trends are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test. However, the results of this test depend on the starting and ending year of the series, which can lead to different results in terms of the period considered. The results can be conditioned to flood-poor and flood-rich periods located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to a set of long series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in some parts of Spain that could be caused by a flood-rich period observed in 1950-1970, placed at the beginning of the flood series. The results of this study support the findings of Mediero et al. (2014), as a flood-rich period in 1950-1970 was identified in most of the selected sites. References: Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

  6. Monitoring the extent of flooding : Based on a case study in Queensland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thompson, R.J.; Van Oosterom, P.J.M.; Zlatanova, S.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Goulevitch, B.

    2011-01-01

    “Of droughts and flooding rains” (Dorothea Mackellar 1885-1968, “My Country”). The recent flooding in Queensland affected rural areas, mines, towns and cities including the state capital. Tracking such an event on a day-by day basis raises practical and theoretical issues. While this year’s floods

  7. Using raster and vector data to identify objects for classify in flood risk. A case study: Raciborz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porczek, Mariusz; Rucińska, Dorota; Lewiński, Stanisław

    2018-01-01

    The severe flood of 1997, which seriously affected Polish, Czech and German territories, gave impetus to research into the management of flood-prone areas. The material losses caused by the "Flood of the Millennium" totalled billions of Polish zloty. The extent of the disaster and of infrastructure repair costs changed the attitude of many branches of the economy, and of science. This is the direct result of consideration of the introduction of changes into spatial management and crisis management. At the same time, it focused the interest of many who were trained in analysing the vulnerability of land-use features to natural disasters such as floods. Research into the spatial distribution of geographic environmental features susceptible to flood in the Odra valley was conducted at the Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies of the University of Warsaw using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This study seeks to examine the possibility of adapting vector and raster data and using them for land-use classification in the context of risk of flood and inundation damage. The analysed area of the city and surrounding area of Raciborz, on the upper Odra River, is a case study for identifying objects and lands susceptible to natural hazards based on publicly available satellite databases of the highest resolution, which is a very important factor in the quality of further risk analyses for applied use. The objective of the research was to create a 10×10-m-pixel raster network using raster data made available by ESA (Copernicus Land Monitoring Service) and vector data from Open Street Map.

  8. Assessment of static flood modeling techniques: application to contrasting marshes flooded during Xynthia (western France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. F. Breilh

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to assess the performance of raster-based flood modeling methods on a wide diversity of coastal marshes. These methods are applied to the flooding associated with the storm Xynthia, which severely hit the western coast of France in February 2010. Static and semi-dynamic methods are assessed using a combination of LiDAR data, post-storm delineation of flooded areas and sea levels originating from both tide gauge measurements and storm surge modeling. Static methods are applied to 27 marshes showing a wide geomorphological diversity. It appears that these methods are suitable for marshes with a small distance between the coastline and the landward boundary of the marsh, which causes these marshes to flood rapidly. On the contrary, these methods overpredict flooded areas for large marshes where the distance between the coastline and the landward boundary of the marsh is large, because the flooding cannot be considered as instantaneous. In this case, semi-dynamic methods based on surge overflowing volume calculations can improve the flooding prediction significantly. This study suggests that static and semi-dynamic flood modeling methods can be attractive and quickly deployed to rapidly produce predictive flood maps of vulnerable areas under certain conditions, particularly for small distances between the coastline and the landward boundary of the low-lying coastal area.

  9. Flash floods warning technique based on wireless communication networks data

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Noam; Alpert, Pinhas; Messer, Hagit

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods can occur throughout or subsequent to rainfall events, particularly in cases where the precipitation is of high-intensity. Unfortunately, each year these floods cause severe property damage and heavy casualties. At present, there are no sufficient real time flash flood warning facilities found to cope with this phenomenon. Here we show the tremendous potential of flash floods advanced warning based on precipitation measurements of commercial microwave links. As was recently shown, wireless communication networks supply high resolution precipitation measurements at ground level while often being situated in flood prone areas, covering large parts of these hazardous regions. We present the flash flood warning potential of the wireless communication system for two different cases when floods occurred at the Judean desert and at the northern Negev in Israel. In both cases, an advanced warning regarding the hazard could have been announced based on this system. • This research was supported by THE ISRAEL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (grant No. 173/08). This work was also supported by a grant from the Yeshaya Horowitz Association, Jerusalem. Additional support was given by the PROCEMA-BMBF project and by the GLOWA-JR BMBF project.

  10. Impact of modelling scale on probabilistic flood risk assessment: the Malawi case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudari Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the early months of 2015, destructive floods hit Malawi, causing deaths and economic losses. Flood risk assessment outcomes can be used to increase scientific-supported awareness of risk. The recent increase in availability of high resolution data such as TanDEM-X at 12m resolution makes possible the use of detailed physical based flood hazard models in risk assessment. Nonetheless the scale of hazard modelling still remains an issue, which requires a compromise between level of detail and computational efforts. This work presents two different approaches on hazard modelling. Both methods rely on 32-years of numeric weather re-analysis and rainfall-runoff transformation through a fully distributed WFLOW-type hydrological model. The first method, applied at national scale, uses fast post-processing routines, which estimate flood water depth at a resolution of about 1×1km. The second method applies a full 2D hydraulic model to propagate water discharge into the flood plains and best suites for small areas where assets are concentrated. At the 12m resolution, three hot spots with a model area of approximately 10×10 km are analysed. Flood hazard maps obtained with both approaches are combined with flood impact models at the same resolution to generate indicators for flood risk. A quantitative comparison of the two approaches is presented in order to show the effects of modelling scale on both hazard and impact losses.

  11. Assessment of flood mitigation through riparian detention in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    19

    changing climate – a case study. 2. 3. Kwan Tun ... expected to mitigate flood damage in downstream urban areas. In this study ... recognized as the most vulnerable region in respect of natural disasters. In the main ..... An integrated numerical model was developed in this study for flooding simulation to realize. 21 the flood ...

  12. Real-time Monitoring and Simulating of Urban Flood, a Case Study in Guangzhou

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, H.; Wang, X.; Zhang, S.; Liu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    In recent years urban flood frequently occurred and seriously impacted city's normal operation, particular on transportation. The increase of urban flood could be attributed to many factors, such as the increase of impervious land surface and extreme precipitation, the decrease of surface storage capacity, poor maintenance of drainage utilities, and so on. In order to provide accurate and leading prediction on urban flooding, this study acquires precise urban topographic data via air-borne Lidar system, collects detailed underground drainage pipes, and installs in-situ monitoring networks on precipitation, water level, video record and traffic speed in the downtown area of Panyu District, Guangzhou, China. Based on the above data acquired, a urban flood model with EPA SWMM5 is established to simulate the flooding and inundation processes in the study area of 20 km2. The model is driven by the real-time precipitation data and calibrated by the water level data, which are converted to flooding volume with precise topographic data. After calibration, the model could be employed to conduct sensitivity analysis for investigating primary factors of urban flooding, and to simulate the flooding processes in different scenarios, which are beneficial to assessment of flooding risk and drainage capacity. This model is expected to provide real-time forecasting in emergency management.

  13. Analysis of flooding possibilities of premises of Ignalina NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    Analysis of flooding possibilities of premises with safety related equipment of Ignalina NPP was performed. In calculations codes SQUIRT and RELAP5 was used. In most cases it was found that it would be enough time to take corrective measure in the case of flooding accident

  14. Development of regional growth centres and impact on regional growth: A case study of Thailand’s Northeastern region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nattapon Sang-arun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the spatial economic structure and inequality in Thailand at the national and regional levels, with a particular focus on the Northeastern region in the period from 1987 to 2007. The study has three main points: 1 examination of the economic structure and inequality at the national level and in the Northeastern region according to the Theil index, 2 determination of regional growth centres and satellite towns by using growth pole theory as a conceptual framework and incorporating spatial interaction analysis and 3 analysis of the relationship between regional growth centres and satellite towns with regard to the impact on growth and inequality. The results show that the Northeastern region is definitely the lagging region in the nation, by both gross domestic product (GDP and gross regional product (GRP per capita. It was therefore selected for a case study. Spatial analysis identified Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen, Udon Thani and Ubon Ratchathani as regional growth centres. Each of them has its own sphere of influence (or satellite towns, and the total area of regional growth centres and satellite towns are classified as sub-regions. The development of regional growth centres has a direct impact on sub-regional economic growth through economic and social relationships: urbanisation, industrial development, per capita growth, the number of higher educational institutes and so on. However, such growth negatively correlates with economic equality among the provinces in a sub-region. The inequality trend is obviously on an upswing. This study suggests that industrial links between regional growth centres and their satellite towns should be improved in order for regional growth centre development to have a consistently desirable effect on both economic growth and equality. Such a strong process means that the growth of regional growth centres will spread, leading to the development of their surrounding areas.

  15. Urban Floods in Lowlands—Levee Systems, Unplanned Urban Growth and River Restoration Alternative: A Case Study in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Gomes Miguez

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The development of cities has always had a very close relation with water. However, cities directly impact land use patterns and greatly change natural landscapes, aggravating floods. Considering this situation, this paper intends to discuss lowland occupation and city sustainability in what regards urban stormwater management, fluvial space, and river restoration, aiming at minimizing flood risks and improving natural and built environment conditions. River plains tend to be attractive places for a city to grow. From ancient times, levees have been used to protect lowland areas along major watercourses to allow their occupation. However, urban rivers demand space for temporary flood storage. From a systemic point of view, levees along extensive river reaches act as canalization works, limiting river connectivity with flood plains, rising water levels, increasing overtopping risks and transferring floods downstream. Departing from this discussion, four case studies in the Iguaçu-Sarapuí River Basin, a lowland area of Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, are used to compose a perspective in which the central point refers to the need of respecting watershed limits and giving space to rivers. Different aspects of low-lying city planning are discussed and analyzed concerning the integration of the built and natural environments.

  16. Escherichia coli pathotypes in Pakistan from consecutive floods in 2010 and 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhari, Habib; Shah, Muhammad Ali; Asad, Saba; Akhtar, Sania; Akram, Muhammad; Wren, Brendan W

    2013-03-01

    This study compares Escherichia coli pathotypes circulating among children in Pakistan during the floods of 2010 and 2011 and from sporadic cases outside flood affected areas. Using multiplex polymerase chain reaction 115 of 205 stool samples (56.29%) were positive for diarrheagenic E. coli from specimens taken during the floods compared with 50 of 400 (12.5%) stool samples being positive for sporadic cases. The E. coli pathotypes were categorized as Enteropathogenic E. coli 33 (28.69%) and 13 (26%), Enterotoxigenic E. coli 29 (25.21%) and 15 (30%), Enteroaggregative E. coli 21 (18.2%) and 18 (36%), Enterohemorrhagic E. coli 5 (4.34%) and 1 (2%) from flood and sporadic cases, respectively. Furthermore, patients co-infected with more than one pathotype were 26 (22.60%) and 3 (6%) from flood and sporadic cases, respectively. The study shows an unexpectedly high rate of isolation of E. coli pathotypes suggesting Pakistan as an endemic region that requires active surveillance particularly during flood periods.

  17. The determination of risk areas for muddy floods based on a worst-case erosion modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saathoff, Ulfert; Schindewolf, Marcus; Annika Arévalo, Sarah

    2013-04-01

    Soil erosion and muddy floods are a frequently occurring hazard in the German state of Saxony, because of the topography and the high relief energy together with the high proportion of arable land. Still, the events are rather heterogeneously distributed and we do not know where damage is likely to occur. The goal of this study is to locate hot spots for the risk of muddy floods, with the objective to prevent high economic damage in future. We applied a soil erosion and deposition map of Saxony, calculated with the process based soil erosion model EROSION 3D. This map shows the potential soil erosion and transported sediment for worst case soil conditions and a 10 year rain storm event. Furthermore, a map of the current landuse in the state is used. From the landuse map, we extracted those areas that are especially vulnerable to muddy floods, like residential and industrial areas, infrastructural facilities (e.g. power plants, hospitals) and highways. In combination with the output of the soil erosion model, the amount of sediment, that enters each single landuse entity, is calculated. Based on this data, a state-wide map with classified risks is created. The results are furthermore used to identify the risk of muddy floods for each single municipality in Saxony. The results are evaluated with data of real occurred muddy flood events with documented locations during the period between 2000 and 2010. Additionally, plausibility tests are performed for selected areas (examination of landuse, topography and soil). The results prove to be plausible and most of the documented events can be explained by the modelled risk map. The created map can be used by different institutions like city and traffic planners, to estimate the risk of muddy flood occurrence at specific locations. Furthermore, the risk map can serve insurance companies to evaluate the insurance risk of a building. To make them easily accessible, the risk map will be published online via a web GIS

  18. Flood Resilient Systems and their Application for Flood Resilient Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manojlovic, N.; Gabalda, V.; Antanaskovic, D.; Gershovich, I.; Pasche, E.

    2012-04-01

    SMARTeST. A web based three tier advisory system FLORETO-KALYPSO (http://floreto.wb.tu-harburg.de/, Manojlovic et al, 2009) devoted to support decision-making process at the building level has been further developed to support multi-scale decision making on resilient systems, improving the existing data mining algorithms of the Business Logic tier. Further tuning of the algorithms is to be performed based on the new developments and findings in applicability and efficiency of different FRe Technology for different flood typologies. The first results obtained at the case studies in Greater Hamburg, Germany indicate the potential of this approach to contribute to the multiscale resilient planning on the road to flood resilient cities. FIAC (2007): "Final report form the Awareness and Assistance Sub-committee", FIAC, Scottish Government Zevenbergen C. et al (2008) "Challenges in urban flood management: travelling across spatial and temporal scales", Journal of FRM Volume 1 Issue 2, p 81-88 Manojlovic N., et al (2009): "Capacity Building in FRM through a DSS Utilising Data Mining Approach", Proceed. 8th HIC, Concepcion, Chile, January, 2009

  19. Flood frequency approach in a Mediterranean Flash Flood basin. A case study in the Besòs catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, D.; Zanon, F.; Corral, C.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the Mediterranean areas. In particular, the region of Catalonia (North-East Spain) is one of the most affected by flash floods in the Iberian Peninsula. The high rainfall intensities generating these events, the specific terrain characteristics giving rise to very fast hydrological responses and the high variability in space and time of both rain and land surface, are the main features of FF and also the main cause of their extreme complexity. Distributed hydrological models have been developed to increase the flow forecast resolution in order to implement effective operational warning systems. Some studies have shown how the distributed-models accuracy is highly sensitive to reduced computational grid scale, so, hydrological model uncertainties must be studied. In these conditions, an estimation of the modeling uncertainty (whatever the accuracy is) becomes highly valuable information to enhance our ability to predict the occurrence of flash flooding. The statistical-distributed modeling approach (Reed, 2004) is proposed in the present study to simulate floods on a small basin and account for hydrologic modeling uncertainty. The Besòs catchment (1020 km2), near Barcelona, has been selected in this study to apply the proposed flood frequency methodology. Hydrometeorological data is available for 11 rain-gauges and 6 streamflow gauges in the last 12 years, and a total of 9 flood events have been identified and analyzed in this study. The DiCHiTop hydrological model (Corral, 2004) was developed to fit operational requirements in the Besòs catchment: distributed, robust and easy to implement. It is a grid-based model that works at a given resolution (here at 1 × 1 km2, the hydrological cell), defining a simplified drainage system at this scale. A loss function is applied at the hydrological cell resolution, provided by a coupled storage model between the SCS model (Mockus, 1957) in urban areas and

  20. Urban floods: a case study in the Savigliano area (North-Western Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Audisio

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood processes and effects are examined, concerning two rivers in an urbanized area in North-Western Italy (Piedmont – Cuneo Plain. In May 2008, some areas in Northern Italy were struck by intense and persistent rainfall. In the Cuneo province (Southern Piedmont, floodplain with some urban areas was inundated over ca. ten square kilometres, and the city of Savigliano (about 21 000 inhabitants was particularly hit by flood. A purposely-made historical research has evidenced approximately fifty flood events as having occurred since 1350 in the Savigliano area. Based upon historical data, both documents and maps, GIS (Geographical Information System technique and field surveys were used to quantitatively assess the growing urbanization of the city and to describe flood processes and effects over years. This work aims to describe the dynamic behaviour of the 2008 flood, also comparing it to past events, in particular those that occurred in 1896. It is emphasized how the knowledge of past events can be helpful in reducing urban flooding.

  1. Indirect Damage of Urban Flooding: Investigation of Flood-Induced Traffic Congestion Using Dynamic Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingxuan Zhu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In many countries, industrialization has led to rapid urbanization. Increased frequency of urban flooding is one consequence of the expansion of urban areas which can seriously affect the productivity and livelihoods of urban residents. Therefore, it is of vital importance to study the effects of rainfall and urban flooding on traffic congestion and driver behavior. In this study, a comprehensive method to analyze the influence of urban flooding on traffic congestion was developed. First, a flood simulation was conducted to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of flooding based on Storm Water Management Model (SWMM and TELAMAC-2D. Second, an agent-based model (ABM was used to simulate driver behavior during a period of urban flooding, and a car-following model was established. Finally, in order to study the mechanisms behind how urban flooding affects traffic congestion, the impact of flooding on urban traffic was investigated based on a case study of the urban area of Lishui, China, covering an area of 4.4 km2. It was found that for most events, two-hour rainfall has a certain impact on traffic congestion over a five-hour period, with the greatest impact during the hour following the cessation of the rain. Furthermore, the effects of rainfall with 10- and 20-year return periods were found to be similar and small, whereas the effects with a 50-year return period were obvious. Based on a combined analysis of hydrology and transportation, the proposed methods and conclusions could help to reduce traffic congestion during flood seasons, to facilitate early warning and risk management of urban flooding, and to assist users in making informed decisions regarding travel.

  2. Rainfall thresholds and flood warning: an operative case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Montesarchio

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available An operative methodology for rainfall thresholds definition is illustrated, in order to provide at critical river section optimal flood warnings. Threshold overcoming could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk and trigger the prevention and emergency system alert. The procedure for the definition of critical rainfall threshold values is based both on the quantitative precipitation observed and the hydrological response of the basin. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section and are estimated by hydrological modelling for several scenarios (e.g.: modifying the soil moisture conditions. Some preliminary results, in terms of reliability analysis (presence of false alarms and missed alarms, evaluated using indicators like hit rate and false alarm rate for the case study of Mignone River are presented.

  3. Estimation of design floods in ungauged catchments using a regional index flood method. A case study of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobert, Joel; Mugo, Margaret; Gadain, Hussein

    Reliable estimation of flood magnitudes corresponding to required return periods, vital for structural design purposes, is impacted by lack of hydrological data in the study area of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya. Use of regional information, derived from data at gauged sites and regionalized for use at any location within a homogenous region, would improve the reliability of the design flood estimation. Therefore, the regional index flood method has been applied. Based on data from 14 gauged sites, a delineation of the basin into two homogenous regions was achieved using elevation variation (90-m DEM), spatial annual rainfall pattern and Principal Component Analysis of seasonal rainfall patterns (from 94 rainfall stations). At site annual maximum series were modelled using the Log normal (LN) (3P), Log Logistic Distribution (LLG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distributions. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments. Goodness of fit tests were applied and the GEV was identified as the most appropriate model for each site. Based on the GEV model, flood quantiles were estimated and regional frequency curves derived from the averaged at site growth curves. Using the least squares regression method, relationships were developed between the index flood, which is defined as the Mean Annual Flood (MAF) and catchment characteristics. The relationships indicated area, mean annual rainfall and altitude were the three significant variables that greatly influence the index flood. Thereafter, estimates of flood magnitudes in ungauged catchments within a homogenous region were estimated from the derived equations for index flood and quantiles from the regional curves. These estimates will improve flood risk estimation and to support water management and engineering decisions and actions.

  4. After the flood is before the next flood - post event review of the Central European Floods of June 2013. Insights, recommendations and next steps for future flood prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szoenyi, Michael; Mechler, Reinhard; McCallum, Ian

    2015-04-01

    perception and understanding of risk in the population. • Residual risk and the levee shadow effect - why the population "felt safe." • What is the overload case and how to implement it in flood protection systems? • Decision-making for the future under uncertainty - how to design to acceptable flood protection levels if we haven't seen yet what's physically possible. 3. How to protect - practical examples Finally, we outline practical examples for reducing the loss burden and risk over time. • "Flood protection hierarchy" - from location choice under a hazard perspective to mobile flood protection. • Risk-based approach and identification of critical infrastructure. • Integrated flood risk management in theory and practical application. • Role of insurance.

  5. The development of a flash flood severity index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Amanda J.; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Hardy, Jill; Henderson, Jen J.; Parhi, Pradipta; Rahmani, Vahid; Reed, Kimberly A.; Schumacher, Russ S.; Smith, Brianne K.; Taraldsen, Matthew J.

    2016-10-01

    Flash flooding is a high impact weather event that requires clear communication regarding severity and potential hazards among forecasters, researchers, emergency managers, and the general public. Current standards used to communicate these characteristics include return periods and the United States (U.S.) National Weather Service (NWS) 4-tiered river flooding severity scale. Return periods are largely misunderstood, and the NWS scale is limited to flooding on gauged streams and rivers, often leaving out heavily populated urban corridors. To address these shortcomings, a student-led group of interdisciplinary researchers came together in a collaborative effort to develop an impact-based Flash Flood Severity Index (FFSI). The index was proposed as a damage-based, post-event assessment tool, and preliminary work toward the creation of this index has been completed and presented here. Numerous case studies were analyzed to develop the preliminary outline for the FFSI, and three examples of such cases are included in this paper. The scale includes five impact-based categories ranging from Category 1 very minor flooding to Category 5 catastrophic flooding. Along with the numerous case studies used to develop the initial outline of the scale, empirical data in the form of semi-structured interviews were conducted with multiple NWS forecasters across the country and their responses were analyzed to gain more perspective on the complicated nature of flash flood definitions and which tools were found to be most useful. The feedback from these interviews suggests the potential for acceptance of such an index if it can account for specific challenges.

  6. Socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: A case study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, R.; Akter, S.; Brander, L.M.; Haque, E.

    2007-01-01

    In this article we investigate the complex relationship between environmental risk, poverty, and vulnerability in a case study carried out in one of the poorest and most flood-prone countries in the world, focusing on household and community vulnerability and adaptive coping mechanisms. Based upon

  7. Application of HEC-RAS for flood forecasting in perched river-A case study of hilly region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Pingping; Wang, Shuqian; Gan, Hong; Liu, Bin; Jia, Ling

    2017-04-01

    Flooding in small and medium rivers are seriously threatening the safety of human beings’ life and property. The simulation forecasting of the river flood and bank risk in hilly region has gradually become a hotspot. At present, there are few studies on the simulation of hilly perched river, especially in the case of lacking section flow data. And the method of how to determine the position of the levee breach along the river bank is not much enough. Based on the characteristics of the sections in hilly perched river, an attempt is applied in this paper which establishes the correlation between the flow profile computed by HEC-RAS model and the river bank. A hilly perched river in Lingshi County, Shanxi Province of China, is taken as the study object, the levee breach positions along the bank are simulated under four different design storm. The results show that the flood control standard of upper reach is high, which can withstand the design storm of 100 years. The current standard of lower reach is low, which is the flooding channel with high frequency. As the standard of current channel between the 2rd and the 11th section is low, levee along that channel of the river bank is considered to be heighten and reinforced. The study results can provide some technical support for flood proofing in hilly region and some reference for the reinforcement of river bank.

  8. Where can flood refugees go? Re-distribution of Corncrakes (Crex crex due to floods and its consequences on grassland conservation in North-Eastern Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boldogh Sándor András

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Corncrake is a threatened umbrella species for wet meadows, which mostly depends on managed grasslands. Therefore, effective conservation requires bird-friendly land management schemes and subsidies. Although the most important populations in Hungary usually breed in protected areas, some of these are regularly flooded, which forces Corncrakes to find breeding sites elsewhere. Such movements from protected/subsidised areas to suboptimal sites have risks for Corncrake populations and their conservation. Here, we describe a large-scale dynamic system of interlinked populations based on data from 4194 Corncrake territories found at four different sites (Aggtelek, Bodrogzug, Szatmár-Bereg and Zemplén regions across eight years between 1997 and 2006 in NE Hungary (c. 1500 km2. The results showed that the total population fluctuated between 407 and 631 pairs and that the populations were more-or-less stable in the first four years (1997–2000. However, extended floods caused the disappearance of the species from the Bodrogzug region in 2005–2006, while in the other sites, the number of territories increased five-fold (Zemplén, three-fold (Aggtelek and two-fold (Szatmár-Bereg. The correlation between the number of territories and maximum water level of river Tisza in April-May was negative in the Bodrogzug site and positive in the three other sites, indicating that interlinkages of the populations were associated with water levels. Our data thus support the hypothesis that many of the birds driven out by inundation of floodplain meadows moved to other sites in NE Hungary in flood years. These results suggest that even large, centrally located populations of Corncrake can be greatly exposed to risks of flooding and that it is highly important to maintain suitable alternative breeding sites for the species. The High Natural Value Areas programme may allow administrative and funding support to provide or extend protection and/or subsidies to

  9. Flash floods in Catalonia: a recurrent situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, M. C.; Lindbergh, S.; Llasat-Botija, M.; Rodríguez, A.; Zaragoza, A.

    2009-09-01

    A database with information about the social impact produced by all the flood events recorded in Catalonia between 1982 and 2007 has been built. Original information comes from the INUNGAMA database (1900-2000) presented by Barnolas and Llasat (2007), the PRESSGAMA database (1982-2007) (Llasat et al., in rev.) and information from different published works (Barriendos et al, 2003; Barriendos and Pomés, 1993). Social impact has been obtained systematically in basis to news press data and, occasionally, in basis to insurance data. Flood events have been classified in ordinary floods, extraordinary floods and catastrophic ones, following the proposal of Llasat et al (2005). However, having in mind the flash floods effects, some new categories concerning casualties and car damages have also been introduced. The spatial and temporal distribution of these flood events has been analysed. Results have been compared with those obtained for the period 1900-2000 (Barnolas and Llasat, 2007) and 1350-2000 (Barrera et al, 2006). In order to better estimate the social impact and vulnerability some indicators have been defined and analyzed for some specific cases and a specific region. Besides the indicators applied in the INUNCAT Plan to obtain a cartography of flood risk in Catalonia, other ones like the number of cars affected or the number of request received by the meteorological service, has been also taken into account. These indicators allow analyzing global and temporal trends as well as characterizing the events. The selected region has been the Maresme, which is a flood prone region with a great density of population and that experiences every year one or more flash floods. The annual number of floods shows a positive trend that cannot be justified by the rainfall trend. Both vulnerability and hazard components have been considered and a discussion about the flood prevention measures is presented. The third part of this work has been centred in the analysis and

  10. Improving flood risk mapping in Italy: the FloodRisk open-source software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Mancusi, Leonardo; Craciun, Iulia; Sole, Aurelia; Ozunu, Alexandru

    2017-04-01

    management process, enhancing their awareness. This FOSS approach can promotes transparency and accountability through a process of "guided discovery". Moreover, the immediacy with which information is presented by the qualitative flood risk map, can facilitate and speed up the process of knowledge acquisition. An application of FloodRisk model is showed on a pilot case in "Serio" Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been highlighted focusing on the utility of the results provided for the development of FRMPs. Although they still present limits which prevent the FloodRisk application without critically consider the peculiarities of the investigated area in terms of available knowledge on hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the proposed approach surely produces an increase in available knowledge of flood risk and its drivers. This further information cannot be neglected for defining risk mitigation objectives and strategies. Hence, considering the ongoing efforts in the improvement of data availability and quality, FloodRisk could be a suitable tool for the next revision of flood risk maps due by December 2019, supporting effectively Italian and EU practitioners in the delineation of FRMPs (and for flood risk management in general).

  11. Effect of catchment properties and flood generation regime on copula selection for bivariate flood frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipova, Valeriya; Lawrence, Deborah; Klempe, Harald

    2018-02-01

    Applying copula-based bivariate flood frequency analysis is advantageous because the results provide information on both the flood peak and volume. More data are, however, required for such an analysis, and it is often the case that only data series with a limited record length are available. To overcome this issue of limited record length, data regarding climatic and geomorphological properties can be used to complement statistical methods. In this paper, we present a study of 27 catchments located throughout Norway, in which we assess whether catchment properties, flood generation processes and flood regime have an effect on the correlation between flood peak and volume and, in turn, on the selection of copulas. To achieve this, the annual maximum flood events were first classified into events generated primarily by rainfall, snowmelt or a combination of these. The catchments were then classified into flood regime, depending on the predominant flood generation process producing the annual maximum flood events. A contingency table and Fisher's exact test were used to determine the factors that affect the selection of copulas in the study area. The results show that the two-parameter copulas BB1 and BB7 are more commonly selected in catchments with high steepness, high mean annual runoff and rainfall flood regime. These findings suggest that in these types of catchments, the dependence structure between flood peak and volume is more complex and cannot be modeled effectively using a one-parameter copula. The results illustrate that by relating copula types to flood regime and catchment properties, additional information can be supplied for selecting copulas in catchments with limited data.

  12. Opisthorchiasis in Northeastern Thailand: Effect of local environment and culture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beuy Joob

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Opisthorchiasis is a kind of trematode infection. This parasitic infestation is a chronic hepatobiliary tract infection and can cause chronic irritation that will finally lead to cholangiocarcinoma. It is highly endemic in northeastern region of Thailand and contributes to many cholangiocarcinoma cases annually. The attempt to control the disease becomes a national policy. However, the sanitation becomes a major underlying factor leading to infection and meanwhile, the poverty and low education of the local people become an important concern. In this opinion, the authors discuss the effect of local environment and culture on opisthorchiasis in northeastern Thailand. Due to the pattern change of local environment, global warming and globalization, the dynamicity can be observed.

  13. Looking for the best flash floods indicators in Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Turco, Marco

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods are a recurrent hazard in Mediterranean Region. From a global point of view, a distinction between two kinds of floods can be made (Llasat, 2009): a) Short-lived and strongly convective events (cases recorded between 2005 and 2006. This sample has been increased with some selected cases of the European project HYDRATE. Information from all the flash-floods recorded in Catalonia (Spain) since 1982, completed with data about population density and so on, has also been considered.

  14. Visualization of the Impact of the Catastrophic Flooding Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Moreri, K. K.

    maps. This can greatly help decision makers with the emergency measures and mitigation in most of the cases. In this article, we present a case study about mapping of flood risks due to a dam burst showing risk maps of flood hazards and available emergency facilities and their significance for risk...... prevention and mitigation....

  15. Quantitative monitoring of gas flooding in oil-bearing reservoirs using a pulsed neutron tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruhovets, N.; Wyatt, D.F. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on quantitative monitoring of gas flooding in oil bearing reservoirs which is unique in that saturations of three fluids (gas, oil and water) in the effective pore space have to be determined, while in most other applications saturation behind casing is determined only for two fluids: hydrocarbons and water. A new method has been developed to monitor gas flooding of oil reservoirs. The method is based on computing two porosities: true effective (base) porosity determined before gas flooding, and apparent effective (monitor) porosity determined after gas flooding. The base porosity is determined from open and/or cased hole porosity logs run before the flooding. When open hole logs are available, the cased hole porosity logs are calibrated against open hole log. The monitor porosity is determined from one of the cased hole porosity logs, such as a neutron log or count rate ratio curve from a pulsed neutron log run after the gas flooding. The base and monitor porosities provide determination of the hydrogen index of the reservoir fluid after the flooding. This hydrogen index is then used to determine saturation of the flood agent after flooding. Water saturation after flooding can be determined from the equation which relates neutron total cross section (Σm) to volumetric constituent cross sections, using Σm values from a monitor run (after flooding)

  16. Effects of an extreme flood on river morphology (case study: Karoon River, Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefi, Saleh; Mirzaee, Somayeh; Keesstra, Saskia; Surian, Nicola; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Zakizadeh, Hamid Reza; Tabibian, Sahar

    2018-03-01

    An extreme flood occurred on 14 April 2016 in the Karoon River, Iran. The occurred flood discharge was the highest discharge recorded over the last 60 years in the Karoon River. Using the OLI Landsat images taken on 8 April 2016 (before the flood) and 24 April 2016 (after the flood) the geomorphic effects were detected in different land cover types within the 155-km-long study reach. The results show that the flood significantly affected the channel width and the main effect was high mobilization of channel sediments and severe bank erosion in the meandering reaches. According to field surveys, the flood occupied the channel corridor and even the floodplain parts. However, the channel pattern was not significantly altered, although the results show that the average channel width increased from 192 to 256 m. Statistical results indicate a significant change for active channel width and sinuosity index at 99% confidence level for both indexes. The flood-induced morphological changes varied significantly for different land cover types along the Karoon River. Specifically, the channel has widened less in residential areas than in other land cover types because of the occurrence of bank protection structures. However, the value of bank retreat in residential and protected sides of the Karoon River is more than what we expected during the study of extreme flood.

  17. Assessment of urban vulnerability towards floods using an indicator-based approach – a case study for Santiago de Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Müller

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Regularly occurring flood events do have a history in Santiago de Chile, the capital city of Chile and study area for this research. The analysis of flood events, the resulting damage and its causes are crucial prerequisites for the development of risk prevention measures. The goal of this research is to empirically investigate the vulnerability towards floods in Santiago de Chile as one component of flood risk. The analysis and assessment of vulnerability is based on the application of a multi-scale (individual, household, municipal level set of indicators and the use of a broad range of data. The case-specific set of indicators developed in this study shows the relevant variables and their interrelations influencing the flood vulnerability in the study area. It provides a decision support tool for stakeholders and allows for monitoring and evaluating changes over time. The paper outlines how GIS, census, and remote sensing data as well as household surveys and expert interviews are used as an information base for the derivation of a vulnerability map for two municipalities located in the eastern part of Santiago de Chile. The generation of vulnerability maps representing the two different perspectives of local decision makers (experts and affected households is exemplified and discussed using the developed methodology.

  18. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: clinical analysis of 78 cases from Fortaleza (Northeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CASTRO-COSTA CARLOS M. DE

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available We report on the clinical characteristics of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS in Fortaleza (Northeastern Brazil. For this, we analyzed retrospectively (from 1980 to 1999 78 cases of ALS from the Service of Neurology of the University Hospital of Fortaleza diagnosed clinically and laboratorially (EMG, muscle biopsy, myelography, blood biochemistry, muscle enzymes and cranio-cervical X-ray. The results showed that they were mostly sporadic ALS (76/78, and they were divided into definite (n= 36, probable (n= 20, possible (n= 15 and suspected (n= 7, according to the level of diagnostic certainty. They were also subdivided into juvenile (n= 17, early-onset adult (n= 18, age-specific (n= 39 and late-onset (n= 4 groups. Clinically, they presented as initials symptoms, principally, asymmetrical (30/78 and symmetrical (24/78 weakness of extremities, besides bulbar signs, fasciculations, and atrophy. Curiously, pain as first symptom occurred in an expressive fashion (17/78. The predominant initial anatomic site, in this series, was the spinal cord, and mainly affecting the arms. As to the symptom accrual from region to region, this occurs more quickly in contiguous areas, and fasciculations are predominant when bulbar region was associated.

  19. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  20. Impacts of a flash flood on drinking water quality: case study of areas most affected by the 2012 Beijing flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubao Sun

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we present a method for identifying sources of water pollution and their relative contributions in pollution disasters. The method uses a combination of principal component analysis and factor analysis. We carried out a case study in three rural villages close to Beijing after torrential rain on July 21, 2012. Nine water samples were analyzed for eight parameters, namely turbidity, total hardness, total dissolved solids, sulfates, chlorides, nitrates, total bacterial count, and total coliform groups. All of the samples showed different degrees of pollution, and most were unsuitable for drinking water as concentrations of various parameters exceeded recommended thresholds. Principal component analysis and factor analysis showed that two factors, the degree of mineralization and agricultural runoff, and flood entrainment, explained 82.50% of the total variance. The case study demonstrates that this method is useful for evaluating and interpreting large, complex water-quality data sets.

  1. An Approach for Generating Precipitation Input for Worst-Case Flood Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf

    2015-04-01

    There is a lack of suitable methods for creating precipitation scenarios that can be used to realistically estimate peak discharges with very low probabilities. On the one hand, existing methods are methodically questionable when it comes to physical system boundaries. On the other hand, the spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation patterns as system input is limited. In response, this study proposes a method of deriving representative spatio-temporal precipitation patterns and presents a step towards making methodically correct estimations of infrequent floods by using a worst-case approach. A Monte-Carlo rainfall-runoff model allows for the testing of a wide range of different spatio-temporal distributions of an extreme precipitation event and therefore for the generation of a hydrograph for each of these distributions. Out of these numerous hydrographs and their corresponding peak discharges, the worst-case catchment reactions on the system input can be derived. The spatio-temporal distributions leading to the highest peak discharges are identified and can eventually be used for further investigations.

  2. Flood Hazard Mapping using Hydraulic Model and GIS: A Case Study in Mandalay City, Myanmar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyu Kyu Sein

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of flood frequency analysis integrating with 1D Hydraulic model (HECRAS and Geographic Information System (GIS to prepare flood hazard maps of different return periods in Ayeyarwady River at Mandalay City in Myanmar. Gumbel’s distribution was used to calculate the flood peak of different return periods, namely, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years, and 100 years. The flood peak from frequency analysis were input into HEC-RAS model to find the corresponding flood level and extents in the study area. The model results were used in integrating with ArcGIS to generate flood plain maps. Flood depths and extents have been identified through flood plain maps. Analysis of 100 years return period flood plain map indicated that 157.88 km2 with the percentage of 17.54% is likely to be inundated. The predicted flood depth ranges varies from greater than 0 to 24 m in the flood plains and on the river. The range between 3 to 5 m were identified in the urban area of Chanayetharzan, Patheingyi, and Amarapua Townships. The highest inundated area was 85 km2 in the Amarapura Township.

  3. Flood Risk Management in Remote and Impoverished Areas—A Case Study of Onaville, Haiti

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Heimhuber

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, geographic information system (GIS-based hydrologic and hydraulic modeling was used to perform a flood risk assessment for Onaville, which is a fairly new, rapidly growing informal settlement that is exposed to dangerous flash-flood events. Since records of historic floods did not exist for the study area, design storms with a variety of significant average return intervals (ARIs were derived from intensity-duration-frequency (IDF curves and transformed into design floods via rainfall-runoff modeling in hydrologic engineering center’s hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS. The hydraulic modeling software hydrologic engineering center’s river analysis system (HEC-RAS was used to perform one-dimensional, unsteady-flow simulations of the design floods in the Ravine Lan Couline, which is the major drainage channel of the area. Topographic data comprised a 12 m spatial resolution TanDEM-X digital elevation model (DEM and a 30 cm spatial resolution DEM created with mapping drones. The flow simulations revealed that large areas of the settlement are currently exposed to flood hazard. The results of the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling were incorporated into a flood hazard map which formed the basis for flood risk management. We present a grassroots approach for preventive flood risk management on a community level, which comprises the elaboration of a neighborhood contingency plan and a flood risk awareness campaign together with representatives of the local community of Onaville.

  4. Flood risk management for large reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poupart, M.

    2006-01-01

    Floods are a major risk for dams: uncontrolled reservoir water level may cause dam overtopping, and then its failure, particularly for fill dams. Poor control of spillway discharges must be taken into consideration too, as it can increase the flood consequences downstream. In both cases, consequences on the public or on properties may be significant. Spillway design to withstand extreme floods is one response to these risks, but must be complemented by strict operating rules: hydrological forecasting, surveillance and periodic equipment controls, operating guides and the training of operators are mandatory too, in order to guarantee safe operations. (author)

  5. Flooding, flood risks and coping strategies in urban informal residential areas: The case of Keko Machungwa, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tumpale Sakijege

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This article presents findings from a study carried out in Keko Machungwa informal settlement in Dar es Salaam under the auspices of the Disaster Management Training Centre of Ardhi University, Tanzania. The settlement has experienced frequent flooding in the past five years, and this study explores the causes, risks, extent of flooding and coping strategies of residents as well as municipality and city officials. Key methods employed in capturing empirical evidence included mapping of zones by severity of flooding, interviews with households, sub-ward leaders, and municipal and city officials. Non-participant observation, primarily taking photographs, complemented these methods. Laboratory tests of water samples taken from shallow wells in the settlement were performed to establish the level of pollution. In addition, records of prevalence of water-borne diseases were gathered from a dispensary within the settlement to corroborate flooding events, water pollution and occurrence of such diseases. Findings show that flooding is contributed to by the lack of a coordinated stormwater drainage system; haphazard housing development within the valley; and blocking of the water stream by haphazard dumping of solid waste and construction. Risks associated with flooding include water and air pollution, diseases, waterlogging and blocked accessibility. The most common coping strategies at household level are use of sandbags and tree logs; raised pit latrines and doorsteps; provision of water outlet pipes above plinth level; construction of embankments, protection walls and elevation of house foundations; seasonal displacement; and boiling and chemical treatment of water. Recommendations for future action at household, community and city level are made.

  6. FLOOD VULNERABILITY IN BODVA RIVER BASIN IN SLOVAKIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZELENAKOVA MARTINA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to generate a composite map for decision makers using selected factors, mainly of natural character, causing floods. In the analyses, some of the causative factors for flooding in a catchment area are taken into account, such as soil type, precipitation, land use, size of catchment and basin slope. A case study of flood vulnerability identification in the Bodva river basin in eastern Slovakia is employed to illustrate the different approaches. A geographical information system (GIS is integrated with multicriteria analysis (MCA in the paper. The identification of flood vulnerability consists of two basic phases. Firstly, the effective factors causing floods are identified. Secondly several approaches to MCA in a GIS environment are applied and these approaches are evaluated in order to prepared flood vulnerability map.

  7. Ensuring safety of people in case of severe floods: feasibility and relevance of vertical evacuation strategies in high population density areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pannier Rodolphe

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available When a major flooding event is expected the authorities in charge of the crisis management often consider bringing people to safety by making them leaving temporarily the threatened area before the onset of the flood. This strategy is called “horizontal evacuation”. It has to be distinguished from “vertical evacuation”, which means that people reach a shelter above the wtaer level within the flood area. Vertical evacuation is often the spontaneousbehaviourof people who are surprised by the flood and are trying to reach a tree, a floor upstairs, a roof of a building etc. in order to get away from the rising water. But vertical evacuation could also be consideredas an alternative strategy to horizontal evacuation when moving outside the flood area is neither a faisible nor a relevant option, for example in high-population density areas. In order to be a credible alternative to horizontal evacuation, vertical evacuation has to be carefully planned. This paper aims to explain why horizontal evacuation is not always a suitable option in case of major flood and to explore under what conditions vertical evacuation can be a relevantalternative solution to horizontal evacuation. It also adresses some general recommendations about how to prepare a vertical evacuation strategy..

  8. How useful are Swiss flood insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Veronika; Bernet, Daniel; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

    2015-04-01

    The databases of Swiss flood insurance companies build a valuable but to date rarely used source of information on physical flood vulnerability. Detailed insights into the Swiss flood insurance system are crucial for using the full potential of the different databases for research on flood vulnerability. Insurance against floods in Switzerland is a federal system, the modalities are manly regulated on cantonal level. However there are some common principles that apply throughout Switzerland. First of all coverage against floods (and other particular natural hazards) is an integral part of every fire insurance policy for buildings or contents. This coupling of insurance as well as the statutory obligation to insure buildings in most of the cantons and movables in some of the cantons lead to a very high penetration. Second, in case of damage, the reinstatement costs (value as new) are compensated and third there are no (or little) deductible and co-pay. High penetration and the fact that the compensations represent a large share of the direct, tangible losses of the individual policy holders make the databases of the flood insurance companies a comprehensive and therefore valuable data source for flood vulnerability research. Insurance companies not only store electronically data about losses (typically date, amount of claims payment, cause of damage, identity of the insured object or policyholder) but also about insured objects. For insured objects the (insured) value and the details on the policy and its holder are the main feature to record. On buildings the insurance companies usually computerize additional information such as location, volume, year of construction or purpose of use. For the 19 (of total 26) cantons with a cantonal monopoly insurer the data of these insurance establishments have the additional value to represent (almost) the entire building stock of the respective canton. Spatial referenced insurance data can be used for many aspects of

  9. Floods in 2002 and 2013: comparing flood warnings and emergency measures from the perspective of affected parties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Pech, Ina; Schröter, Kai; Müller, Meike; Thieken, Annegret

    2016-04-01

    Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. However, early warning is only helpful if the flood-endangered parties are reached by the warning and if they know how to react effectively. Finding suitable methods for communicating helpful warnings to the "last mile" remains a challenge, but not much information is available. Surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany, asking affected private households and companies about warnings they received and emergency measures they undertook. Results show, that in 2002 early warning did not work well: in too many areas warnings came too late or were too imprecise and many people (27%) and companies (45%) did not receive a flood warning. Afterwards, the warning systems were significantly improved, so that in 2013 only a small share of the affected people (7%) and companies (7 %) was not reached by any warning. Additionally, private households and companies were hardly aware of the flood risk in the Elbe catchment before 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. For instance, in 2002 only 14% of private households clearly knew how to protect themselves and their assets when the warning reached them, in 2013 this fraction was 46 %. Although the share of companies which had an emergency plan in place had increased from 10 % in 2002 to 26 % in 2013, and the share of those conducting regular emergency exercises had increased from 4 % to 13 %, there is still plenty of room for improvement. Therefore, integrated early warning systems from monitoring through to the reaction of the affected parties as well as effective risk and emergency communication need continuous further improvement to protect people and mitigate residual risks in case of floods.

  10. Characterising Record Flooding in the United Kingdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, A.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Though the most notable floods in history have been carefully explained, there remains a lack of literature that explores the nature of record floods as a whole in the United Kingdom. We characterise the seasonality, statistical and spatial distribution, and meteorological causes of peak river flows for 521 gauging stations spread across the British Isles. We use annual maximum data from the National River Flow Archive, catchment descriptors from the Flood Estimation Handbook, and historical records of large floods. What we aim to find is in what ways, if any, the record flood for a station is different from more 'typical' floods. For each station, we calculate two indices: the seasonal anomaly and the flood index. Broadly, the seasonal anomaly is the degree to which a station's record flood happens at a different time of year compared to typical floods at that site, whilst the flood index is a station's record flood discharge divided by the discharge of the 1-in-10-year return period event. We find that while annual maximum peaks are dominated by winter frontal rainfall, record floods are disproportionately caused by summer convective rainfall. This analysis also shows that the larger the seasonal anomaly, the higher the flood index. Additionally, stations across the country have record floods that occur in the summer with no notable spatial pattern, yet the most seasonally anomalous record events are concentrated around the south and west of the British Isles. Catchment descriptors tell us little about the flood index at a particular station, but generally areas with lower mean annual precipitation have a higher flood index. The inclusion of case studies from recent and historical examples of notable floods across the UK supplements our analysis and gives insight into how typical these events are, both statistically and meteorologically. Ultimately, record floods in general happen at relatively unexpected times and with unpredictable magnitudes, which is a

  11. Consistency of extreme flood estimation approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used for the planning of infrastructure as well as for determining the dimensions of flood protection measures. There are several well-established methodical procedures to estimate low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve, the "true value" of an extreme flood being not observable. Anyway, a detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In this study, the following three different approaches for estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical approach (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical approach based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic approach (physically based PMF estimation). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments. The results and some intermediate variables are used for assessing potential strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as for evaluating the consistency of these methods.

  12. A case study on the diagnosis and consequences of flash floods in south-western Romania: The upper basin of Desnatui River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morosanu Gabriela Adina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the flash floods that may appear in a representative river basin occupying the south-western Romania and also feature an example of the most recent flash flood from 2005-2006, more specifically, its causes and consequences. In order to accomplish the objectives, hydrological data were used to identify the characteristics of the floods. Finally, the case study of the flash flood was delivered through the field research, observational method, discussion with the authorities and investigation of the meteorological and hydrological available data. The research offers an insight on the dimension of damages triggered by a flash flood event, based on the statistical data provided by the village hall and the few remaining places preserving the traces of the floods (houses, bridges. Because we could not provide all the necessary data in order to determine the frequency and scale of such risk phenomena, the analysis is assessed on general hydrological statistics of flood events between 1964 to 2011. By leading the research, it resulted that the specific feature of the upper basin of Desnatui River is its temporary drainage and that in the periods of high flow, the capacity of the river channels is diminshed and the floods may occur. The paper succeeds to revive the insufficient scientific concerns on this kind of hydrological risks issued in the space occupied by the upper basin of Desnatui River and eventually, to supply the need for such study in the context of modern hydrological research preoccupations.

  13. Flood disaster risk assessment of rural housings--a case study of Kouqian Town in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

    2014-04-03

    Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and "3S" technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.

  14. Uncorrected land-use planning highlighted by flooding: the Alba case study (Piedmont, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luino, F.; Turconi, L.; Petrea, C.; Nigrelli, G.

    2012-07-01

    Alba is a town of over 30 000 inhabitants located along the Tanaro River (Piedmont, northwestern Italy) and is famous for its wine and white truffles. Many important industries and companies are based in Alba, including the famous confectionery group Ferrero. The town suffered considerably from a flood that occurred on 5-6 November 1994. Forty-eight percent of the urban area was inundated, causing severe damage and killing nine people. After the flood, the Alba area was analysed in detail to determine the reasons for its vulnerability. Information on serious floods in this area since 1800 was gathered from official records, state technical office reports, unpublished documents in the municipal archives, and articles published in local and national newspapers. Maps, plans and aerial photographs (since 1954) were examined to reconstruct Alba's urban development over the last two centuries and the planform changes of the Tanaro River. The results were compared with the effects of the November 1994 flood, which was mapped from aerial photographs taken immediately after the flood, field surveys and eyewitness reports. The territory of Alba was subdivided into six categories: residential; public service; industrial, commercial and hotels; sports areas, utilities and standards (public gardens, parks, athletics grounds, private and public sport clubs); aggregate plants and dumps; and agriculture and riverine strip. The six categories were then grouped into three classes with different flooding-vulnerability levels according to various parameters. Using GIS, the three river corridors along the Tanaro identified by the Autorità di Bacino del Fiume Po were overlaid on the three classes to produce a final map of the risk areas. This study shows that the historic floods and their dynamics have not been duly considered in the land-use planning of Alba. The zones that were most heavily damaged in the 1994 flood were those that were frequently affected in the past and sites of

  15. Uncorrected land-use planning highlighted by flooding: the Alba case study (Piedmont, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Luino

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Alba is a town of over 30 000 inhabitants located along the Tanaro River (Piedmont, northwestern Italy and is famous for its wine and white truffles. Many important industries and companies are based in Alba, including the famous confectionery group Ferrero.

    The town suffered considerably from a flood that occurred on 5–6 November 1994. Forty-eight percent of the urban area was inundated, causing severe damage and killing nine people. After the flood, the Alba area was analysed in detail to determine the reasons for its vulnerability.

    Information on serious floods in this area since 1800 was gathered from official records, state technical office reports, unpublished documents in the municipal archives, and articles published in local and national newspapers. Maps, plans and aerial photographs (since 1954 were examined to reconstruct Alba's urban development over the last two centuries and the planform changes of the Tanaro River.

    The results were compared with the effects of the November 1994 flood, which was mapped from aerial photographs taken immediately after the flood, field surveys and eyewitness reports.

    The territory of Alba was subdivided into six categories: residential; public service; industrial, commercial and hotels; sports areas, utilities and standards (public gardens, parks, athletics grounds, private and public sport clubs; aggregate plants and dumps; and agriculture and riverine strip. The six categories were then grouped into three classes with different flooding-vulnerability levels according to various parameters. Using GIS, the three river corridors along the Tanaro identified by the Autorità di Bacino del Fiume Po were overlaid on the three classes to produce a final map of the risk areas.

    This study shows that the historic floods and their dynamics have not been duly considered in the land-use planning of Alba. The zones that were most heavily damaged in the 1994 flood were

  16. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murla Tuyls, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren

    2017-04-01

    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g. DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized catchment area of 440ha and 10.400inhab. located in Jutland (Denmark), which has received the impact of several pluvial flooding in the last recent years. A historical rainfall dataset from the last 35 years from two different rain gauges located at 2 and 10 km from the study area has been provided by the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The most extreme 25 rainfall events have been selected through a two-step multi-criteria procedure, ensuring an adequate variability of rainfall, from extreme high peak storms with a short duration to moderate rainfall with longer duration. In addition, a coupled 1D/2D surface and network UDS model of the catchment area developed in an integrated MIKE URBAN and MIKE Flood model (DHI 2014), considering both permeable and impermeable areas, in combination with a DTM (2x2m res.) has been used to study and assess in detail flood RP. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall RP and flood response. Local flood levels, flood area and volume RP estimates should therefore not be neglected in

  17. Assessing infrastructure vulnerability to major floods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenssen, Lars

    1998-12-31

    This thesis proposes a method for assessing the direct effects of serious floods on a physical infrastructure or utility. This method should be useful in contingency planning and in the design of structures likely to be damaged by flooding. A review is given of (1) methods of floodplain management and strategies for mitigating floods, (2) methods of risk analysis that will become increasingly important in flood management, (3) methods for hydraulic computations, (4) a variety of scour assessment methods and (5) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) to the analysis of flood vulnerability. Three computer codes were developed: CULVCAP computes the headwater level for circular and box culverts, SCOUR for assessing riprap stability and scour depths, and FASTFLOOD prepares input rainfall series and input files for the rainfall-runoff model used in the case study. A road system in central Norway was chosen to study how to analyse the flood vulnerability of an infrastructure. Finally, the thesis proposes a method for analysing the flood vulnerability of physical infrastructure. The method involves a general stage that will provide data on which parts of the infrastructure are potentially vulnerable to flooding and how to analyse them, and a specific stage which is concerned with analysing one particular kind of physical infrastructure in a study area. 123 refs., 59 figs., 17 tabs= .

  18. Increased Rotavirus Prevalence in Diarrheal Outbreak Precipitated by Localized Flooding, Solomon Islands, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Forrest K; Ko, Albert I; Becha, Chris; Joshua, Cynthia; Musto, Jennie; Thomas, Sarah; Ronsse, Axelle; Kirkwood, Carl D; Sio, Alison; Aumua, Audrey; Nilles, Eric J

    2016-05-01

    Flooding on 1 of the Solomon Islands precipitated a nationwide epidemic of diarrhea that spread to regions unaffected by flooding and caused >6,000 cases and 27 deaths. Rotavirus was identified in 38% of case-patients tested in the city with the most flooding. Outbreak potential related to weather reinforces the need for global rotavirus vaccination.

  19. Contribution of an exposure indicator to better anticipate damages with the AIGA flood warning method: a case study in the South of France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine; Douvinet, Johnny; Javelle, Pierre; Vinet, Freddy

    2016-04-01

    On the 3rd October 2015, heavy localized precipitations have occurred in South Eastern France leading to major flash floods on the Mediterranean coast. The severity of those floods has caused 20 fatalities and important damage in almost 50 municipalities in the French administrative area of Alpes-Maritimes. The local recording rain gauges have shown how fast the event has happened: 156 mm of rain were recorded in Mandelieu-la-Napoule and 145 mm in Cannes within 2 hours. As the affected rivers are not monitored, no anticipation was possible from the authorities in charge of risk management. In this case, forecasting floods is indeed complex because of the small size of the watersheds which implies a reduced catchment response time. In order to cope with the need of issuing flood warnings on un-monitored small catchments, Irstea and Météo-France have developed an alternative warning system for ungauged basins called the AIGA method. AIGA is a flood warning system based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1 km² resolution using real time radar rainfall information (Javelle, Demargne, Defrance, Pansu, & Arnaud, 2014). The flood warnings, produced every 15 minutes, result of the comparison of the real time runoff data produced by the model with statistical runoff values. AIGA is running in real time in the South of France, within the RHYTMME project (https://rhytmme.irstea.fr/). Work is on-going in order to offer a similar service for the whole French territory. More than 200 impacts of the 3rd October floods have been located using media, social networks and fieldwork. The first comparisons between these impacts and the AIGA warning levels computed for this event show several discrepancies. However, these latter discrepancies appear to be explained by the land-use. An indicator of the exposure of territories to flooding has thus been created to weight the levels of the AIGA hydrological warnings with the land-use of the area surrounding the streams

  20. Diphtheria outbreak with high mortality in northeastern Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besa, N C; Coldiron, M E; Bakri, A; Raji, A; Nsuami, M J; Rousseau, C; Hurtado, N; Porten, K

    2014-04-01

    SUMMARY A diphtheria outbreak occurred from February to November 2011 in the village of Kimba and its surrounding settlements, in Borno State, northeastern Nigeria. We conducted a retrospective outbreak investigation in Kimba village and the surrounding settlements to better describe the extent and clinical characteristics of this outbreak. Ninety-eight cases met the criteria of the case definition of diphtheria, 63 (64.3%) of whom were children aged diphtheria. None of the 98 cases received diphtheria antitoxin, penicillin, or erythromycin during their illness. The overall case-fatality ratio was 21.4%, and was highest in children aged 0-4 years (42.9%). Low rates of immunization, delayed clinical recognition of diphtheria and absence of treatment with antitoxin and appropriate antibiotics contributed to this epidemic and its severity.

  1. Toward seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting over Europe based on radar nowcasting and NWP: An evaluation with case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Shinju; Berenguer, Marc; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Baugh, Calum; Smith, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Flash floods induced by heavy rain are one of the hazardous natural events that significantly affect human lives. Because flash floods are characterized by their rapid onset, forecasting flash flood to lead an effective response requires accurate rainfall predictions with high spatial and temporal resolution and adequate representation of the hydrologic and hydraulic processes within a catchment that determine rainfall-runoff accumulations. We present extreme flash flood cases which occurred throughout Europe in 2015-2016 that were identified and forecasted by two real-time approaches: 1) the European Rainfall-Induced Hazard Assessment System (ERICHA) and 2) the European Runoff Index based on Climatology (ERIC). ERICHA is based on the nowcasts of accumulated precipitation generated from the pan-European radar composites produced by the EUMETNET project OPERA. It has the advantage of high-resolution precipitation inputs and rapidly updated forecasts (every 15 minutes), but limited forecast lead time (up to 8 hours). ERIC, on the other hand, provides 5-day forecasts based on the COSMO-LEPS NWP simulations updated 2 times a day but is only produced at a 7 km resolution. We compare the products from both systems and focus on showing the advantages, limitations and complementarities of ERICHA and ERIC for seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting.

  2. Flooding PSA with Plant Specific Operating Experiences of Korean PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joon Yull

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to update the flooding PSA with Korean plant specific operating experience data and the appropriate estimation method for the flooding frequency to improve the PSA quality. The existing flooding PSA used the NPE (Nuclear Power Experience) database up to 1985 for the flooding frequency. They are all USA plant operating experiences. So an upgraded flooding frequency with Korean specific plant operation experience is required. We also propose a method of only using the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) data for the flooding frequency estimation in the case of the flooding area in the primary building even though the existing flooding PSA used both PWR and BWR (Boiled Water Reactor) data for all kinds of plant areas. We evaluate the CDF (Core Damage Frequency) with the modified flooding frequency and compare the results with that of the existing flooding PSA method

  3. Interpreting the impact of flood forecasts by combining policy analysis studies and flood defence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slomp Robert

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood forecasting is necessary to save lives and reduce damages. Reducing damages is important to save livelihoods and to reduce the recovery time. Flood alerts should contain expected time of the event, location and extent of the event. A flood alert is not only one message but part of a rehearsed flow of information using multiple canals. First people have to accept the fact that there might be a threat and what the threat is about. People need a reference to understand the situation and be aware of possible measures they can take to assure their own safety and reduce damages. Information to the general public has to be consistent with the information used by emergency services and has to be very clear about consequences and context of possible measures (as shelter in place or preventive evacuation. Emergency services should monitor how the public is responding to adapt their communication en operation during a crisis. Flood warnings and emergency services are often coordinated by different government organisations. This is an extra handicap for having consistent information out on time for people to use. In an information based society, where everyone has twitter, email and a camera, public organisations may have to trust the public more and send out the correct information as it comes in. In the Netherlands Rijkswaterstaat, the National Water Authority and the National Public Works Department, is responsible for or involved in forecasting in case of floods, policy studies on flood risk, policy studies on maintenance, assessment and design of flood defences, elaborating rules and regulations for flood defences, advice on crisis management to the national government and for maintaining the main infrastructure in the Netherlands (high ways and water ways. The Water Management Center in the Netherlands (WMCN has developed a number of models to provide flood forecasts. WMCN is run for and by all managers of flood defences and is hosted by

  4. Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

    2015-04-01

    In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA

  5. Flood risk index pattern assessment: case study in Langat River Basin

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study focus on the creation of flood risk index in the study area based on secondary data derived from the Department of Drainage and Irrigation (DID) since 1982-2012. Based on the result, it shows that the water level is the best variable to be taken for the purposed of flood warning alert system as the result for ...

  6. Assessing the environmental justice consequences of flood risk: a case study in Miami, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Marilyn C.; Chakraborty, Jayajit

    2015-09-01

    Recent environmental justice (EJ) research has emphasized the need to analyze social inequities in the distribution of natural hazards such as hurricanes and floods, and examine intra-ethnic diversity in patterns of EJ. This study contributes to the emerging EJ scholarship on exposure to flooding and ethnic heterogeneity by analyzing the racial/ethnic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population residing within coastal and inland flood risk zones in the Miami Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), Florida—one of the most ethnically diverse MSAs in the U.S. and one of the most hurricane-prone areas in the world. We examine coastal and inland flood zones separately because of differences in amenities such as water views and beach access. Instead of treating the Hispanic population as a homogenous group, we disaggregate the Hispanic category into relevant country-of-origin subgroups. Inequities in flood risk exposure are statistically analyzed using socio-demographic variables derived from the 2010 U.S. Census and 2007-2011 American Community Survey estimates, and 100-year flood risk zones from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Social vulnerability is represented with two neighborhood deprivation indices called economic insecurity and instability. We also analyze the presence of seasonal/vacation homes and proximity to public beach access sites as water-related amenity variables. Logistic regression modeling is utilized to estimate the odds of neighborhood-level exposure to coastal and inland 100-year flood risks. Results indicate that neighborhoods with greater percentages of non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, and Hispanic subgroups of Colombians and Puerto Ricans are exposed to inland flood risks in areas without water-related amenities, while Mexicans are inequitably exposed to coastal flood risks. Our findings demonstrate the importance of treating coastal and inland flood risks separately while controlling for water-related amenities, and

  7. The Calculation of Flooding Level using CFX Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Seo Bin; Kim, Keon Yeop; Lee, Hyung Ho

    2015-01-01

    The plant design should consider internal flooding by postulated pipe ruptures, component failures, actuation of spray systems, and improper system alignment. The flooding causes failure of safety-related equipment and affects the integrity of the structure. The safety-related equipment should be installed above the flood level for protection against flooding effects. Conservative estimates of the flood level are important when a DBA occurs. The flooding level can be calculated simply applying Bernoulli's equation. However, in this study, a realistic calculation is performed with ANSYS CFX code. In calculation with CFX, air-core vortex phenomena, and turbulent flow can be simulated, which cannot be calculated analytically. The flooding level is evaluated by analytical calculation and CFX analysis for an assumed condition. The flood level is calculated as 0.71m and 1.1m analytically and with CFX simulation, respectively. Comparing the analytical calculation and simulation, they are similar, but the analytical calculation is not conservative. There are many factors reducing the drainage capacity such as air-core vortex, intake of air, and turbulent flow. Therefore, in case of flood level evaluation by analytical calculation, a sufficient safety margin should be considered

  8. Tool for analyzing the vulnerability of buildings to flooding: the case of Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choffet, Marc; Bianchi, Renzo; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Kölz, Ehrfried; Lateltin, Olivier; Leroi, Eric; Mayis, Arnaud

    2010-05-01

    Whatever the way used to protect property exposed to flood, there exists a residual risk. That is what feedbacks of past flooding show. This residual risk is on one hand linked with the possibility that the protection measures may fail or may not work as intended. The residual risk is on the other hand linked with the possibility that the flood exceeds the chosen level of protection.In many European countries, governments and insurance companies are thinking in terms of vulnerability reduction. This publication will present a new tool to evaluate the vulnerability of buildings in a context of flooding. This tool is developed by the project "Analysis of the vulnerability of buildings to flooding" which is funded by the Foundation for Prevention of Cantonal insurances, Switzerland. It is composed by three modules and it aims to provide a method for reducing the vulnerability of buildings to flooding. The first two modules allow identifying all the elements composing the building and listing it. The third module is dedicated to the choice of efficient risk reducing measures on the basis of cost-benefit analyses. The diagnostic tool for different parts of the building is being developed to allow real estate appraisers, insurance companies and homeowners rapidly assess the vulnerability of buildings in flood prone areas. The tool works with by several databases that have been selected from the collection and analysis of data, information, standards and feedback from risk management, hydrology, architecture, construction, materials engineering, insurance, or economy of construction. A method for determining the local hazard is also proposed, to determine the height of potential floods threatening a building, based on a back analysis of Swiss hazard maps. To calibrate the model, seven cantonal insurance institutions participate in the study by providing data, such as the the amount of damage in flooded areas. The poster will present some results from the development of

  9. Evaluation of urban flood damages in climate and land use changes: Case Studies from Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kefi, M.; Binaya, M. K.; Kumar, P.; Fukushi, K.

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization, changes in land use and global warming increase the threat of natural disasters such as flooding. In recent decades, it was observed a rise of intensity and frequency of flood events. The exposure both of people and the national economy to flood hazards is amplified and can induce serious economic and social damages. For this reason, local governments adopted several strategies to cope with flood risk in urban areas in particular, but a better comprehension of the flood hazard factors may enhance the efficiency of mitigating measures overall. For this research, a spatial analysis is applied to estimate future direct flood damage for 2030 in three Southeast Asian megacities: Jakarta (Indonesia), Metro-Manila (Philippines) and Hanoi (Vietnam). This comprehensive method combined flood characteristics (flood depth) obtained from flood simulation using FLO-2D, land use generated from supervised classification and remote sensing products, property value of affected buildings and flood damage rate derived from flood depth function. This function is established based on field surveys with local people affected by past flood events. Additionally, two scenarios were analyzed to simulate the future conditions. The first one is related to climate change and it is based on several General Circulation Models (GCMs). However, the second one is establish to point out the effect of adaptation strategies. The findings shows that the climate change combined with the expansion of built-up areas increase the vulnerability of urban areas to flooding and the economic damage. About 16%, 8% and 19% of flood inundation areas are expected to increase respectively in Metro-Manila, Jakarta and Hanoi. However, appropriate flood control measures can be helpful to reduce the impact of natural disaster. Furthermore, flood damage maps are generated at a large scale, which can be helpful to local stakeholders when prioritizing their mitigation strategies on urban disaster resilience.

  10. Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

    2015-04-01

    The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and

  11. Assess the flood resilience tools integration in the landuse projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulin, E.; Deroubaix, J.-F.

    2012-04-01

    Despite a severe regulation concerning the building in flooding areas, 80% of these areas are already built in the Greater Paris (Paris, Val-de-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine and Seine-Saint-Denis). The land use in flooding area is presented as one of the main solutions to solve the ongoing real estate pressure. For instance some of the industrial wastelands located along the river are currently in redevelopment and residential buildings are planned. So the landuse in the flooding areas is currently a key issue in the development of the Greater Paris area. To deal with floods there are some resilience tools, whether structural (such as perimeter barriers or building aperture barriers, etc) or non structural (such as warning systems, etc.). The technical solutions are available and most of the time efficient1. Still, we notice that these tools are not much implemented. The people; stakeholders and inhabitants, literally seems to be not interested. This papers focus on the integration of resilience tools in urban projects. Indeed one of the blockages in the implementation of an efficient flood risk prevention policy is the lack of concern of the landuse stakeholders and the inhabitants for the risk2. We conducted an important number of interviews with stakeholders involved in various urban projects and we assess, in this communication, to what extent the improvement of the resilience to floods is considered as a main issue in the execution of an urban project? How this concern is maintained or could be maintained throughout the project. Is there a dilution of this concern? In order to develop this topic we rely on a case study. The "Ardoines" is a project aiming at redeveloping an industrial site (South-East Paris), into a project including residential and office buildings and other amenities. In order to elaborate the master plan, the urban planning authority brought together some flood risk experts. According to the comments of the experts, the architect in charge of the

  12. Use of social media and e-Government in disasters: 2016 Louisiana floods case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch, Daniel

    The case study analyzes the use of social media as a component of disaster response during and after the Louisiana Floods of August 2016. The study analyzes the survey responses of thirty social media users on a series of questions regarding social networks they regularly used during the flooding events, the extent to which users contacted government agencies via those networks, other uses of social media connected with the disaster, and whether social media served as a primary means of communication during cell carrier service interruptions. The results of this study show that there was a correlation between service disruption and increased use of social media as a means of communication. Additionally, the survey showed that social media networks have been utilized for a wide range of purposes during disasters, including locating family and loved ones, requesting help, disseminating information, and psychosocial interaction. Finally, a majority of respondents did not use social media to contact government agencies, and a number of respondents rated federal government engagement through social media as either dissatisfactory or were neutral on the question.

  13. Temporal clustering of floods in Germany: Do flood-rich and flood-poor periods exist?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, Bruno; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

    2016-10-01

    The repeated occurrence of exceptional floods within a few years, such as the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995 and the Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 and 2013, suggests that floods in Central Europe may be organized in flood-rich and flood-poor periods. This hypothesis is studied by testing the significance of temporal clustering in flood occurrence (peak-over-threshold) time series for 68 catchments across Germany for the period 1932-2005. To assess the robustness of the results, different methods are used: Firstly, the index of dispersion, which quantifies the departure from a homogeneous Poisson process, is investigated. Further, the time-variation of the flood occurrence rate is derived by non-parametric kernel implementation and the significance of clustering is evaluated via parametric and non-parametric tests. Although the methods give consistent overall results, the specific results differ considerably. Hence, we recommend applying different methods when investigating flood clustering. For flood estimation and risk management, it is of relevance to understand whether clustering changes with flood severity and time scale. To this end, clustering is assessed for different thresholds and time scales. It is found that the majority of catchments show temporal clustering at the 5% significance level for low thresholds and time scales of one to a few years. However, clustering decreases substantially with increasing threshold and time scale. We hypothesize that flood clustering in Germany is mainly caused by catchment memory effects along with intra- to inter-annual climate variability, and that decadal climate variability plays a minor role.

  14. Flood risk management and ‘fairness’: aspirations and reality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penning-Rowsell Edmund C.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk management in United Kingdom has been going through a process of rapid change in the last decade or so, no doubt spurred on by a series of very serious floods since the year 2000. These changes affect flood defence and non-structural flood risk management measures alike, and involve a degree of devolution from central government to local communities and regional organisations, as central government seeks to shed responsibilities for policy implementation. This paper discusses three case studies concerning flood defence, property level protection, and flood insurance, set against the framework of “fairness” encapsulated in egalitarian, utilitarian and Rawlsian approaches to social justice. The results show a different pattern in each area, with flood defence moving somewhat towards a Rawlsian approach, but flood insurance and property level protection showing signs of both inefficiency and poor penetration, respectively, particularly with regard to low income residents, especially those in social housing.

  15. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  16. TWO-DIMENSIONAL MODELLING OF ACCIDENTAL FLOOD WAVES PROPAGATION

    OpenAIRE

    Lorand Catalin STOENESCU

    2011-01-01

    The study presented in this article describes a modern modeling methodology of the propagation of accidental flood waves in case a dam break; this methodology is applied in Romania for the first time for the pilot project „Breaking scenarios of Poiana Uzului dam”. The calculation programs used help us obtain a bidimensional calculation (2D) of the propagation of flood waves, taking into consideration the diminishing of the flood wave on a normal direction to the main direction; this diminishi...

  17. Real-time flood inundation forecasting and mapping for key railway infrastructure: a UK case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murphy Alexandra T.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding events that impede railway infrastructure can cause severe travel delays for the general public and large fines in delayed minutes for the rail industry. Early warnings of flood inundation can give more time to implement mitigation measures which help reduce cancellations, delays and fines. Initial work is reported on the development of a real-time flood inundation forecasting and mapping system for the Cowley Bridge track area near Exeter, UK. This location is on one of the main access routes to South West England and has suffered major floods in the past resulting in significant transport impacts. Flood forecasting systems in the UK mainly forecast river level/flow rather than extent and depth of flood inundation. Here, the development of a chain of coupled models is discussed that link rainfall to river flow, river level and flood extent for the rail track area relating to Cowley Bridge. Historical events are identified to test model performance in predicting inundation of railway infrastructure. The modelling system will operate alongside a series of in-situ sensors chosen to enhance the flood mapping forecasting system. Sensor data will support offline model calibration/verification and real-time data assimilation as well as monitoring flood conditions to inform track closure decisions.

  18. Promoting private sector engagement in climate change adaptation and flood resilience: A case study of innovative approaches applied by MSMEs in Mumbai, India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaer, Caroline; Pantakar, Archana

    2018-01-01

    of maladaptation. As climate change is expected to worsen the risk of flash floods with changes in intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall, MSMEs need long-term solutions to build their adaptive capacity and resilience. This paper describes the business case for private sector engagement in flood risk...... reduction and climate adaptation from the perspective of MSMEs in Mumbai. Based on extensive field surveys of MSMEs located in industrial estates, the paper discusses the implications of floods for MSMEs. Moreover, the authors present a framework developed for MSMEs to make informed risk reduction......Recurring heavy precipitation and flooding cause extensive loss and damage in cities like Mumbai. Among the worst affected are Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) which suffer damage to physical structure and loss of business. These costs amount to millions of dollars and are borne by MSMEs...

  19. Exploring Flood Resilience Thinking in the Retail Sector under Climate Change: A Case Study of an Estuarine Region of Taipei City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chang Chiang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available With predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change that may induce morphological changes of estuaries, increased estuarine flood risk needs to be considered. The aim of this case study was to contemplate sustainability from the perspective of flood resilience that focuses on environmental problems and solutions. The study provided insights into retailers’ resilience thinking regarding the flood-prone Shetzu Peninsula in Taipei City. It is of concern that the retailers strategically identified potential flood risks and have developed adaptive knowledge, skills, and networks. The Location Quotient (LQ analysis was conducted to verify that the retail sector of Shetzu Peninsula was considered a basic industry. Further assessments, an interactive visualization model and a consumption intensity map, were provided as supportive data. Based on the results, semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore 15 key retailers’ resilience thinking on how to adapt to floods in terms of risk communication under climate change. This approach is vital to meet the adaptation challenge in the Shetzu Peninsula. As a result, the study indicated that retailers have strategically identified potential weather-related risks and have implemented adaptation plans for each store functions. The study discussed that, in the face of climate change, maladaptation, interactive visualization models for communicating flood risks, and place attachment are key issues to increase flood resilience under climate change. The introduction of adaptation interventions in terms of urban resilience as a part of a comprehensive strategy helps to manage the impacts of climate change towards urban sustainability.

  20. Sustainability appraisal and flood risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, Jeremy G.; White, Iain; Richards, Juliet

    2009-01-01

    This research establishes that sustainability appraisal (SA) has a role to play in strengthening spatial plans in the context of flooding issues. Indeed, evidence has been gathered to indicate that tentative steps are being taken in this direction during the SA of English regional spatial plans, which are used as an illustrative case study. In England as in many other countries, appraisal procedures including SA and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) are enshrined in planning law. An opportunity therefore exists to utilise existing and familiar planning tools to embed flooding considerations within spatial plans at an early stage in the planning process. SA (and similar appraisal tools such as SEA) can therefore usefully aid in the implementation of decision making principles and government policy relating to flooding. Moreover, with the threats associated with climate change becoming increasingly apparent, of which increased flood risk is a particular concern in many countries, there is a need develop appropriate adaptation responses. This article emphasizes the role that SA can play in managing future flood risk in this context

  1. Flood frequency analysis and generation of flood hazard indicator maps in a semi-arid environment, case of Ourika watershed (western High Atlas, Morocco)

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Alaoui El Fels, Abdelhafid; Alaa, Noureddine; Bachnou, Ali; Rachidi, Said

    2018-05-01

    The development of the statistical models and flood risk modeling approaches have seen remarkable improvements in their productivities. Their application in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in developing countries, can be extremely useful for better assessment and planning of flood risk in order to reduce the catastrophic impacts of this phenomenon. This study focuses on the Setti Fadma region (Ourika basin, Morocco) which is potentially threatened by floods and is subject to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. The study is based on two main axes: (i) the extreme flow frequency analysis, using 12 probability laws adjusted by Maximum Likelihood method and (ii) the generation of the flood risk indicator maps are based on the solution proposed by the Nays2DFlood solver of the Hydrodynamic model of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. The study is used as a spatial high-resolution digital model (Lidar) in order to get the nearest hydrological simulation of the reality. The results showed that the GEV is the most appropriate law of the extreme flows estimation for different return periods. Taking into consideration the mapping of 100-year flood area, the study revealed that the fluvial overflows extent towards the banks of Ourika and consequently, affects some living areas, cultivated fields and the roads that connects the valley to the city of Marrakech. The aim of this study is to propose new technics of the flood risk management allowing a better planning of the flooded areas.

  2. Flood Catastrophe Model for Designing Optimal Flood Insurance Program: Estimating Location-Specific Premiums in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ermolieva, T; Filatova, T; Ermoliev, Y; Obersteiner, M; de Bruijn, K M; Jeuken, A

    2017-01-01

    As flood risks grow worldwide, a well-designed insurance program engaging various stakeholders becomes a vital instrument in flood risk management. The main challenge concerns the applicability of standard approaches for calculating insurance premiums of rare catastrophic losses. This article focuses on the design of a flood-loss-sharing program involving private insurance based on location-specific exposures. The analysis is guided by a developed integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model consisting of a GIS-based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location-specific risk exposures. To achieve the stability and robustness of the program towards floods with various recurrences, the ICRM uses stochastic optimization procedure, which relies on quantile-related risk functions of a systemic insolvency involving overpayments and underpayments of the stakeholders. Two alternative ways of calculating insurance premiums are compared: the robust derived with the ICRM and the traditional average annual loss approach. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of a Rotterdam area outside the main flood protection system in the Netherlands. Our numerical experiments demonstrate essential advantages of the robust premiums, namely, that they: (1) guarantee the program's solvency under all relevant flood scenarios rather than one average event; (2) establish a tradeoff between the security of the program and the welfare of locations; and (3) decrease the need for other risk transfer and risk reduction measures. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. The Use of Geospatial Technologies in Flood Hazard Mapping and Assessment: Case Study from River Evros

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentzafou, Angeliki; Markogianni, Vasiliki; Dimitriou, Elias

    2017-02-01

    Many scientists link climate change to the increase of the extreme weather phenomena frequency, which combined with land use changes often lead to disasters with severe social and economic effects. Especially floods as a consequence of heavy rainfall can put vulnerable human and natural systems such as transboundary wetlands at risk. In order to meet the European Directive 2007/60/EC requirements for the development of flood risk management plans, the flood hazard map of Evros transboundary watershed was produced after a grid-based GIS modelling method that aggregates the main factors related to the development of floods: topography, land use, geology, slope, flow accumulation and rainfall intensity. The verification of this tool was achieved through the comparison between the produced hazard map and the inundation maps derived from the supervised classification of Landsat 5 and 7 satellite imageries of four flood events that took place at Evros delta proximity, a wetland of international importance. The comparison of the modelled output (high and very high flood hazard areas) with the extent of the inundated areas as mapped from the satellite data indicated the satisfactory performance of the model. Furthermore, the vulnerability of each land use against the flood events was examined. Geographically Weighted Regression has also been applied between the final flood hazard map and the major factors in order to ascertain their contribution to flood events. The results accredited the existence of a strong relationship between land uses and flood hazard indicating the flood susceptibility of the lowlands and agricultural land. A dynamic transboundary flood hazard management plan should be developed in order to meet the Flood Directive requirements for adequate and coordinated mitigation practices to reduce flood risk.

  4. Challenges of torrential flood risk management in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Ana M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Torrential floods are the natural hydrological hazards manifesting as a consequence of extreme rainfall episodes which have a quick response from the watersheds of small areas, steep slopes and intensive soil erosion. Taking in consideration the nature of torrential flood (sudden and destructive occurrence and the fact they are the most frequent natural hazards in Serbia, torrential flood risk management is a real challenge. Instead of partial solutions for flood protection, integrated torrential flood risk management is more meaningful and effective. The key steps should be an improvement of the legal framework on national level and an expansion of technical and biological torrent control works in river basins. Consequences for society can be significantly reduced if there is an efficient forecast and timely warning, rescue and evacuation and if affected population is educated about flood risks and measures which can be undertaken in case of emergency situation. In this paper, all aspects of torrential flood risk management are analyzed. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47007 III

  5. Flood Management and Protection from the Social Point of View: Case Study from Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manukalo, V.; Gerasymenko, H.

    2012-12-01

    Defining Issue According to the statistics presented by the Ministry of Emergencies of Ukraine, river floods have imposed the most severe damages to the sectors of economy and the human communities in Ukraine. But, an adaptability and a vulnerability of Ukrainian society to floods are still poorly understood. Results Presentation In the response to increasing flood losses in the country between 1998 and 2008, the State Hydrometeorological Service of Ukraine, which is subordinate to the Ministry of Emergencies, in the cooperation with the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine have carried out the research study focusing on public views on the problem of river floods for Ukraine. Aims of this study were: a) exploring the main sources of information on water-related hazards and the level of knowledge useful in a flood crisis situation in different groups of peoples; b) learning what the various population groups think of the most significant causes and consequences of flood damages and the role of various central/governmental/ and local authorities in an elaboration and implementation of mitigation measures. Public attitudes towards various prevention and mitigation strategies, as well as sources of emerging conflict were also revealed. The results of study have given a possibility to compare points of view of population groups which: a) living in the low- and high- flood risk areas; b) living in the urban and rural areas; c) having the different levels of education. The responses from 2550 residents have been analyzed and summarized. Among the most important findings of this study can be indicated following: a) on the one hand, the level of knowledge of some aspects of flood problem (impact of climate variation and change, adaptation measures) of the general public should be improved, on the other hand, the most of peoples understand that floods are the significant economical and ecological problem; b) views of the public on the problem differ very much with regard

  6. Tropical spastic paraparesis in Northeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. de Castro Costa

    1989-06-01

    Full Text Available Ten possible cases of tropical spastic paraparesis (TSP in Northeastern Brazil (Ceará are presented. They show the typical symptoms and signs of TSP consisting of weakness of the lower limbs, spastic gait, hiperreflexia, bladder dysfunction and variable signs of posterior columns impairment. The laboratory examinations excluded other compressive, infective, degenerative or demyelinating lesions of their spinal cord. Our patients age ranged from 21 to 59 years, all were of black origin and all were of lower social class. There was a slight preponderance of females. An etiological implication of a retrovirus (HTLV-I has been shown for TSP, but for lack of technical conditions we could not determine it in our patients, and that stands as our subsequent step in those and further cases.

  7. Flash floods and debris flow: how the risk could can be better managed? The case of the events in Sicily on October 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronica, Giuseppe T.; Brigandi', Giuseppina

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods are phenomena in which the important hydrologic processes are occurring on the same spatial and temporal scales as the intense precipitation. Most of the catchments of the Messina area in the North-East part of Sicily (Italy), are prone to flash flood formation. They are, in fact, small, with a steep slope, and characterised by short concentration times. Moreover, those catchments are predominantly rural in the upper mountainous part, while the areas next to the outlet are highly urbanized with areas that cover not only the floodplain but also the river bed itself as the main roads were previously part of the torrent. This situation involve an high risk of economic losses and human life in case of flash flood in these areas. In the last years the area around Messina has been interested by severe flash floods and debris flow. The events occurred on 25th October 2007 in the Mastroguglielmo torrent and 1st October 2009 on Racinazzi and Gianpilieri torrents are an example of flash floods and debris flow events that caused not only significant economic damages to property, buildings, roads and bridges but also, for this that concern the 1st October 2009 flash flood, loss of human life. The main focus of this work is, basing on the post event analysis of the 2009 flash flood event, to try to understand which could be the better preventive measures and mitigation strategies that can be provided for a better risk management in these areas too many times affected by devastating events. Flood management can be controlled by either structural or non-structural measures. Adoption of a certain measure depends critically on the hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the river system and the region. Flash flood management includes a number of phases that should be included in any management strategy like prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Forecasting based on hydrological precursors based on the soil moisture condition at the

  8. Forecast-based Integrated Flood Detection System for Emergency Response and Disaster Risk Reduction (Flood-FINDER)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcorace, Mauro; Silvestro, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; Boni, Giorgio; Dell'Oro, Luca; Bjorgo, Einar

    2016-04-01

    Most flood prone areas in the globe are mainly located in developing countries where making communities more flood resilient is a priority. Despite different flood forecasting initiatives are now available from academia and research centers, what is often missing is the connection between the timely hazard detection and the community response to warnings. In order to bridge the gap between science and decision makers, UN agencies play a key role on the dissemination of information in the field and on capacity-building to local governments. In this context, having a reliable global early warning system in the UN would concretely improve existing in house capacities for Humanitarian Response and the Disaster Risk Reduction. For those reasons, UNITAR-UNOSAT has developed together with USGS and CIMA Foundation a Global Flood EWS called "Flood-FINDER". The Flood-FINDER system is a modelling chain which includes meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic models that are accurately linked to enable the production of warnings and forecast inundation scenarios up to three weeks in advance. The system is forced with global satellite derived precipitation products and Numerical Weather Prediction outputs. The modelling chain is based on the "Continuum" hydrological model and risk assessments produced for GAR2015. In combination with existing hydraulically reconditioned SRTM data and 1D hydraulic models, flood scenarios are derived at multiple scales and resolutions. Climate and flood data are shared through a Web GIS integrated platform. First validation of the modelling chain has been conducted through a flood hindcasting test case, over the Chao Phraya river basin in Thailand, using multi temporal satellite-based analysis derived for the exceptional flood event of 2011. In terms of humanitarian relief operations, the EO-based services of flood mapping in rush mode generally suffer from delays caused by the time required for their activation, programming, acquisitions and

  9. Application of Flood Nomograph for Flood Forecasting in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eui Hoon Lee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Imperviousness has increased due to urbanization, as has the frequency of extreme rainfall events by climate change. Various countermeasures, such as structural and nonstructural measures, are required to prepare for these effects. Flood forecasting is a representative nonstructural measure. Flood forecasting techniques have been developed for the prevention of repetitive flood damage in urban areas. It is difficult to apply some flood forecasting techniques using training processes because training needs to be applied at every usage. The other flood forecasting techniques that use rainfall data predicted by radar are not appropriate for small areas, such as single drainage basins. In this study, a new flood forecasting technique is suggested to reduce flood damage in urban areas. The flood nomograph consists of the first flooding nodes in rainfall runoff simulations with synthetic rainfall data at each duration. When selecting the first flooding node, the initial amount of synthetic rainfall is 1 mm, which increases in 1 mm increments until flooding occurs. The advantage of this flood forecasting technique is its simple application using real-time rainfall data. This technique can be used to prepare a preemptive response in the process of urban flood management.

  10. Quantitative analysis of burden of bacillary dysentery associated with floods in Hunan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuena; Liu, Zhidong; Zhang, Ying; Jiang, Baofa

    2016-03-15

    Jishou and Huaihua, two cities in the west of Hunan Province, had suffered from severe floods because of long-lasting and heavy rainfall during the end of June and July 2012. However, the Disability Adjusted of Life Years (DALYs) of bacillary dysentery caused by the floods have not been examined before. The study aimed to quantify the impact of the floods on the burden of bacillary dysentery in Hunan, China. A unidirectional case-crossover study was firstly conducted to determine the relationship between daily cases of bacillary dysentery and the floods in Jishou and Huaihua of Hunan Province in 2012. Odds ratios (ORs) estimated by conditional logistic regression were used to quantify the risk of the floods on the disease. The years lived with disability (YLDs) of bacillary dysentery attributable to floods were then estimated based on the WHO framework to calculate potential impact fraction in the Burden of Disease study. Multivariable analysis showed that floods were significantly associated with an increased risk of the number of cases of bacillary dysentery (OR=3.270, 95% CI: 1.299-8.228 in Jishou; OR=2.212, 95% CI: 1.052-4.650 in Huaihua). The strongest effect was shown with a 1-day lag in Jishou and a 4-day lag in Huaihua. Attributable YLD per 1000 of bacillary dysentery due to the floods was 0.0296 in Jishou and 0.0157 in Huaihua. Our study confirms that floods have significantly increased the risks of bacillary dysentery in the study areas. In addition, a sudden and severe flooding with a shorter duration may cause more burdens of bacillary dysentery than a persistent and moderate flooding. Public health preparation and intervention programs should be taken to reduce and prevent a potential risk of bacillary dysentery epidemics after floods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems, taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.

  12. Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

    2014-01-01

    Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area. PMID:24705363

  13. Hydrological and hydraulic models for determination of flood-prone and flood inundation areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksoy, Hafzullah; Sadan Ozgur Kirca, Veysel; Burgan, Halil Ibrahim; Kellecioglu, Dorukhan

    2016-05-01

    Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are widely used in most studies on water resources. Especially, when the topography and geomorphology of study area are considered, GIS can ease the work load. Detailed data should be used in this kind of studies. Because of, either the complication of the models or the requirement of highly detailed data, model outputs can be obtained fast only with a good optimization. The aim in this study, firstly, is to determine flood-prone areas in a watershed by using a hydrological model considering two wetness indexes; the topographical wetness index, and the SAGA (System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses) wetness index. The wetness indexes were obtained in the Quantum GIS (QGIS) software by using the Digital Elevation Model of the study area. Flood-prone areas are determined by considering the wetness index maps of the watershed. As the second stage of this study, a hydraulic model, HEC-RAS, was executed to determine flood inundation areas under different return period-flood events. River network cross-sections required for this study were derived from highly detailed digital elevation models by QGIS. Also river hydraulic parameters were used in the hydraulic model. Modelling technology used in this study is made of freely available open source softwares. Based on case studies performed on watersheds in Turkey, it is concluded that results of such studies can be used for taking precaution measures against life and monetary losses due to floods in urban areas particularly.

  14. Hydrological and hydraulic models for determination of flood-prone and flood inundation areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Geographic Information Systems (GIS are widely used in most studies on water resources. Especially, when the topography and geomorphology of study area are considered, GIS can ease the work load. Detailed data should be used in this kind of studies. Because of, either the complication of the models or the requirement of highly detailed data, model outputs can be obtained fast only with a good optimization. The aim in this study, firstly, is to determine flood-prone areas in a watershed by using a hydrological model considering two wetness indexes; the topographical wetness index, and the SAGA (System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses wetness index. The wetness indexes were obtained in the Quantum GIS (QGIS software by using the Digital Elevation Model of the study area. Flood-prone areas are determined by considering the wetness index maps of the watershed. As the second stage of this study, a hydraulic model, HEC-RAS, was executed to determine flood inundation areas under different return period-flood events. River network cross-sections required for this study were derived from highly detailed digital elevation models by QGIS. Also river hydraulic parameters were used in the hydraulic model. Modelling technology used in this study is made of freely available open source softwares. Based on case studies performed on watersheds in Turkey, it is concluded that results of such studies can be used for taking precaution measures against life and monetary losses due to floods in urban areas particularly.

  15. Ac and dc motor flooding times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, D.A.; Hinton, J.H.

    1988-01-01

    Reactor safety studies, such as the emergency cooling system (ECS) limits analyses and the probabilistic risk assessment, require that the flood-out times be calculated for the ac and dc motors at the -40 foot level. New calculations are needed because dams of an improved design have been installed between the pump room and motor room, and because updated leak rate calculations have shown that the maximum possible leak rate is larger than that which had been previously calculated. The methodology for calculating the motor flood-out times has also been improved. A computer program has been written to calculate flood-out times for various leak rates and sump pump operabilities. For ECS limits analyses, the worst case dc motor flood-out times are 161 and 297 seconds in LKC and P-areas, respectively. These times are for a 135,468 gpm leak that first flows to the motor room and all of the sump pumps are off

  16. Flood mapping from Sentinel-1 and Landsat-8 data: a case study from river Evros, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyriou, Aggeliki; Nikolakopoulos, Konstantinos

    2015-10-01

    Floods are suddenly and temporary natural events, affecting areas which are not normally covered by water. The influence of floods plays a significant role both in society and the natural environment, therefore flood mapping is crucial. Remote sensing data can be used to develop flood map in an efficient and effective way. This work is focused on expansion of water bodies overtopping natural levees of the river Evros, invading the surroundings areas and converting them in flooded. Different techniques of flood mapping were used using data from active and passive remote sensing sensors like Sentinlel-1 and Landsat-8 respectively. Space borne pairs obtained from Sentinel-1 were processed in this study. Each pair included an image during the flood, which is called "crisis image" and another one before the event, which is called "archived image". Both images covering the same area were processed producing a map, which shows the spread of the flood. Multispectral data From Landsat-8 were also processed in order to detect and map the flooded areas. Different image processing techniques were applied and the results were compared to the respective results of the radar data processing.

  17. Extensive spatio-temporal assessment of flood events by application of pair-copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schulte

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Although the consequences of floods are strongly related to their peak discharges, a statistical classification of flood events that only depends on these peaks may not be sufficient for flood risk assessments. In many cases, the flood risk depends on a number of event characteristics. In case of an extreme flood, the whole river basin may be affected instead of a single watershed, and there will be superposition of peak discharges from adjoining catchments. These peaks differ in size and timing according to the spatial distribution of precipitation and watershed-specific processes of flood formation. Thus, the spatial characteristics of flood events should be considered as stochastic processes. Hence, there is a need for a multivariate statistical approach that represents the spatial interdependencies between floods from different watersheds and their coincidences. This paper addresses the question how these spatial interdependencies can be quantified. Each flood event is not only assessed with regard to its local conditions but also according to its spatio-temporal pattern within the river basin. In this paper we characterise the coincidence of floods by trivariate Joe-copula and pair-copulas. Their ability to link the marginal distributions of the variates while maintaining their dependence structure characterizes them as an adequate method. The results indicate that the trivariate copula model is able to represent the multivariate probabilities of the occurrence of simultaneous flood peaks well. It is suggested that the approach of this paper is very useful for the risk-based design of retention basins as it accounts for the complex spatio-temporal interactions of floods.

  18. Flood risk assessment through 1D/2D couple HEC-RAS hydrodynamic modeling- A case study of Surat City, Lower Tapi Basin, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Dhruvesh; Ramirez, Jorge; Srivastava, Prashant; Bray, Michaela; Han, Dawei

    2017-04-01

    Surat, known as the diamond city of Gujart is situated 100 km downstream of Ukai dam and near the mouth of river Tapi and affected by the flood at every alternate year. The city experienced catastrophic floods in 1933, 1959, 1968, 1970, 1994, 1998 and 2006. It is estimated that a single flood event during August 6-12, 2006 in Surat and Hazira twin-city, caused heavy damages, resulted in the death of 300 people and property damage worth € 289 million. The peak discharge of 25768 m3 s-1 release from Ukai dam was responsible for the disastrous flood in Surat city. To identifylow lying areas prone to inundation and reduce the uncertainty in flood mitigation measures, HEC-RAS based 1D/2D Couple hydrodynamic modeling is carried out for Surat city. Release from the Ukai dam and tidal level of the sea are considered for upstream and downstream boundary condition. 299 surveyed cross-sections have been considered for 1D modeling, whereas a topographic map at 0.5 m contour interval was used to produce a 5 m grid and SRTM (30 & 90 m) grid has been considered for Suart and Lower Tapi Basin (LTB). Flow is simulated under unsteady conditions, calibrated for the year 1998 and validated for the year 2006. The simulated result shows that the 9th August 18.00 hr was the worst day for Surat city and maximum 75-77 % area was under inundation. Most of the flooded area experienced 0.25 m/s water velocity with the duration of 90 hr. Due to low velocity and high duration of the flood, a low lying area within the west zone and south-west zone of the city was badly affected by the flood, whereas the south zone and south-east zone was least. Simulated results show good correlation when compared with an observed flood level map. The simulated results will be helpful to improve the flood resilience strategy at Surat city and reduce the uncertainty for flood inundation mapping for future dam releases. The present case study shows the applicability of 1D/2D coupled hydrodynamic modeling for

  19. Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and

  20. A national scale flood hazard mapping methodology: The case of Greece - Protection and adaptation policy approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Karatzas, George P

    2017-12-01

    The present work introduces a national scale flood hazard assessment methodology, using multi-criteria analysis and artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques in a GIS environment. The proposed methodology was applied in Greece, where flash floods are a relatively frequent phenomenon and it has become more intense over the last decades, causing significant damages in rural and urban sectors. In order the most prone flooding areas to be identified, seven factor-maps (that are directly related to flood generation) were combined in a GIS environment. These factor-maps are: a) the Flow accumulation (F), b) the Land use (L), c) the Altitude (A), b) the Slope (S), e) the soil Erodibility (E), f) the Rainfall intensity (R), and g) the available water Capacity (C). The name to the proposed method is "FLASERC". The flood hazard for each one of these factors is classified into five categories: Very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The above factors are combined and processed using the appropriate ANN algorithm tool. For the ANN training process spatial distribution of historical flooded points in Greece within the five different flood hazard categories of the aforementioned seven factor-maps were combined. In this way, the overall flood hazard map for Greece was determined. The final results are verified using additional historical flood events that have occurred in Greece over the last 100years. In addition, an overview of flood protection measures and adaptation policy approaches were proposed for agricultural and urban areas located at very high flood hazard areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. A flood geodatabase and its climatological applications: the case of Catalonia for the last century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnolas, M.; Llasat, M. C.

    2007-04-01

    Floods are the natural hazards that produce the highest number of casualties and material damage in the Western Mediterranean. An improvement in flood risk assessment and study of a possible increase in flooding occurrence are therefore needed. To carry out these tasks it is important to have at our disposal extensive knowledge on historical floods and to find an efficient way to manage this geographical data. In this paper we present a complete flood database spanning the 20th century for the whole of Catalonia (NE Spain), which includes documentary information (affected areas and damage) and instrumental information (meteorological and hydrological records). This geodatabase, named Inungama, has been implemented on a GIS (Geographical Information System) in order to display all the information within a given geographical scenario, as well as to carry out an analysis thereof using queries, overlays and calculus. Following a description of the type and amount of information stored in the database and the structure of the information system, the first applications of Inungama are presented. The geographical distribution of floods shows the localities which are more likely to be flooded, confirming that the most affected municipalities are the most densely populated ones in coastal areas. Regarding the existence of an increase in flooding occurrence, a temporal analysis has been carried out, showing a steady increase over the last 30 years.

  2. A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Llasat

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to introduce a systematic press database on natural hazards and climate change in Catalonia (NE of Spain and to analyze its potential application to social-impact studies. For this reason, a review of the concepts of risk, hazard, vulnerability and social perception is also included. This database has been built for the period 1982–2007 and contains all the news related with those issues published by the oldest still-active newspaper in Catalonia. Some parameters are registered for each article and for each event, including criteria that enable us to determine the importance accorded to it by the newspaper, and a compilation of information about it. This ACCESS data base allows each article to be classified on the basis of the seven defined topics and key words, as well as summary information about the format and structuring of the new itself, the social impact of the event and data about the magnitude or intensity of the event. The coverage given to this type of news has been assessed because of its influence on construction of the social perception of natural risk and climate change, and as a potential source of information about them. The treatment accorded by the press to different risks is also considered. More than 14 000 press articles have been classified. Results show that the largest number of news items for the period 1982–2007 relates to forest fires and droughts, followed by floods and heavy rainfalls, although floods are the major risk in the region of study. Two flood events recorded in 2002 have been analyzed in order to show an example of the role of the press information as indicator of risk perception.

  3. Prediction of Polymer Flooding Performance with an Artificial Neural Network: A Two-Polymer-Slug Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jestril Ebaga-Ololo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Many previous contributions to methods of forecasting the performance of polymer flooding using artificial neural networks (ANNs have been made by numerous researchers previously. In most of those forecasting cases, only a single polymer slug was employed to meet the objective of the study. The intent of this manuscript is to propose an efficient recovery factor prediction tool at different injection stages of two polymer slugs during polymer flooding using an ANN. In this regard, a back-propagation algorithm was coupled with six input parameters to predict three output parameters via a hidden layer composed of 10 neurons. Evaluation of the ANN model performance was made with multiple linear regression. With an acceptable correlation coefficient, the proposed ANN tool was able to predict the recovery factor with errors of <1%. In addition, to understand the influence of each parameter on the output parameters, a sensitivity analysis was applied to the input parameters. The results showed less impact from the second polymer concentration, owing to changes in permeability after the injection of the first polymer slug.

  4. An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

    2017-11-17

    Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Influence of Flood Detention Capability in Flood Prevention for Flood Disaster of Depression Area

    OpenAIRE

    Chia Lin Chan; Yi Ju Yang; Chih Chin Yang

    2011-01-01

    Rainfall records of rainfall station including the rainfall potential per hour and rainfall mass of five heavy storms are explored, respectively from 2001 to 2010. The rationalization formula is to investigate the capability of flood peak duration of flood detention pond in different rainfall conditions. The stable flood detention model is also proposed by using system dynamic control theory to get the message of flood detention pond in this research. When rainfall freque...

  6. Challenges in estimating the health impact of Hurricane Sandy using macro-level flood data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieberman-Cribbin, W.; Liu, B.; Schneider, S.; Schwartz, R.; Taioli, E.

    2016-12-01

    Background: Hurricane Sandy caused extensive physical and economic damage but the long-term health impacts are unknown. Flooding is a central component of hurricane exposure, influencing health through multiple pathways that unfold over months after flooding recedes. This study assesses concordance in Federal Emergency Management (FEMA) and self-reported flood exposure after Hurricane Sandy to elucidate discrepancies in flood exposure assessments. Methods: Three meter resolution New York State flood data was obtained from the FEMA Modeling Task Force Hurricane Sandy Impact Analysis. FEMA data was compared to self-reported flood data obtained through validated questionnaires from New York City and Long Island residents following Sandy. Flooding was defined as both dichotomous and continuous variables and analyses were performed in SAS v9.4 and ArcGIS 10.3.1. Results: There was a moderate agreement between FEMA and self-reported flooding (Kappa statistic 0.46) and continuous (Spearman's correlation coefficient 0.50) measures of flood exposure. Flooding was self-reported and recorded by FEMA in 23.6% of cases, while agreement between the two measures on no flooding was 51.1%. Flooding was self-reported but not recorded by FEMA in 8.5% of cases, while flooding was not self-reported but indicated by FEMA in 16.8% of cases. In this last instance, 84% of people (173/207; 83.6%) resided in an apartment (no flooding reported). Spatially, the most concordance resided in the interior of New York City / Long Island, while the greatest areas of discordance were concentrated in the Rockaway Peninsula and Long Beach, especially among those living in apartments. Conclusions: There were significant discrepancies between FEMA and self-reported flood data. While macro-level FEMA flood data is a relatively less expensive and faster way to provide exposure estimates spanning larger geographic areas affected by Hurricane Sandy than micro-level estimates from cohort studies, macro

  7. Effects of Flood Control Strategies on Flood Resilience Under Sociohydrological Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Kyungmin; Jeong, Hanseok; Sangwan, Nikhil; Yu, David J.

    2018-04-01

    A community capacity to cope with flood hazards, or community flood resilience, emerges from the interplay of hydrological and social processes. This interplay can be significantly influenced by the flood control strategy adopted by a society, i.e., how a society sets its desired flood protection level and strives to achieve this goal. And this interplay can be further complicated by rising land-sea level differences, seasonal water level fluctuations, and economic change. But not much research has been done on how various forms of flood control strategies affect human-flood interactions under these disturbances and therefore flood resilience in the long run. The current study is an effort to address these issues by developing a conceptual model of human-flood interaction mediated by flood control strategies. Our model extends the existing model of Yu et al. (2017), who investigated the flood resilience of a community-based flood protection system in coastal Bangladesh. The major extensions made in this study are inclusions of various forms of flood control strategies (both adaptive and nonadaptive ones), the challenge of rising land-sea level differences, and various high tide level scenarios generated from modifying the statistical variances and averages. Our results show that adaptive forms of flood control strategies tend to outperform nonadaptive ones for maintaining the model community's flood protection system. Adaptive strategies that dynamically adjust target flood protection levels through close monitoring of flood damages and social memories of flood risk can help the model community deal with various disturbances.

  8. Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Brilly

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to floods, the most recent serious floods being in 1990 and in 1998, with a hundred and fifty return period and more than ten year return period, respectively. Two surveys were conducted in 1997 and 2003, with 157 participants from different areas of the town in the first, and 208 in the second study, aiming at finding the general attitude toward the floods. The surveys revealed that floods present a serious threat in the eyes of the inhabitants, and that the perception of threat depends, to a certain degree, on the place of residence. The surveys also highlighted, among the other measures, solidarity and the importance of insurance against floods.

  9. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  10. Geospatial Tools for Prevention of Urban Floods Case Study: River of EL Maleh (city of Mohammedia - Morocco)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaabane, M. S.; Abouali, N.; Boumeaza, T.; Zahouily, M.

    2017-11-01

    Today, the prevention and the risk management occupy an important part of public policy activities and are considered as major components in the process of sustainable development of territories. Due to the expansion of IT processes, in particular the geomatics sciences, decision-makers are increasingly requesting for digital tools before, during and after the risks of natural disasters. Both, the geographic information system (GIS) and the remote sensing are considered as geospatial and fundamental tools which help to understand the evolution of risks, to analyze their temporality and to make the right decisions. The historic events (on 1996, 2002 and 2010) which struck the city of Mohammedia and having caused the consequent damage to vital infrastructure and private property, require a thorough and rational analyze to benefit from it and well manage the floods phenomena. This article present i) the contribution of the geospatial tools for the floods simulation of Oued of el Maleh city at various return periods. These tools allow the demarcation of flood-risk areas and so to make floods simulations in several scenarios (decadal flood, 20-year flood, 50-year flood, 100-year flood, 500-year flood & also millennial flood) and besides (ii) present a synthesis map combining the territorial stakes superposed on the flood scenarios at different periods of return.

  11. Novel flood risk assessment framework for rapid decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Koursari, Eftychia; Solley, Mark

    2016-04-01

    The impacts of catastrophic flooding, have significantly increased over the last few decades. This is due to primarily the increased urbanisation in ever-expanding mega-cities as well as due to the intensification both in magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events. Herein a novel conceptual framework is presented that incorporates the use of real-time information to inform and update low dimensionality hydraulic models, to allow for rapid decision making towards preventing loss of life and safeguarding critical infrastructure. In particular, a case study from the recent UK floods in the area of Whitesands (Dumfries), is presented to demonstrate the utility of this approach. It is demonstrated that effectively combining a wealth of readily available qualitative information (such as crowdsourced visual documentation or using live data from sensing techniques), with existing quantitative data, can help appropriately update hydraulic models and reduce modelling uncertainties in future flood risk assessments. This approach is even more useful in cases where hydraulic models are limited, do not exist or were not needed before unpredicted dynamic modifications to the river system took place (for example in the case of reduced or eliminated hydraulic capacity due to blockages). The low computational cost and rapid assessment this framework offers, render it promising for innovating in flood management.

  12. Impacts of Floods Events on Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, E.; Pacetti, T.; Rulli, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    The analysis of the interactions among natural disasters and food security is particularly significant for developing countries where food availability (one of the four pillars of food security together with access, utilization and stability) can be highly jeopardize by extreme events that damage the primary access to food, i.e. the agriculture. The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of flood events on food security for two disastrous flood events in Bangladesh on 2007 and in Pakistan on 2010, selected here as case studies based on the existing literature related to extreme floods.The adopted methodology integrates remote sensing data, agricultural statistics, and water footprint values in order to (i) evaluating the potentially affected agricultural areas; (ii) converting the affected areas into crop loss; (iii) estimating the associated calories and water footprint losses. In Bangladesh, the estimated lost rice is around 12.5% of the total potential production, which implies a 5.3% calories loss with respect to the total potential energy provided by rice and 4.4% of total WF associated to national food supply. In Pakistan, the results show a crops loss of 19% for sugarcane and 40% for rice, with a related calories loss of 8.5% and a WF loss of 13.5%.The results highlight the countries vulnerability to flood, being both countries strongly dependent on local agricultural production. The 2007 flood event reflected critically upon Bangladeshi food security, almost doubling the existing food deficit. The same happened in Pakistan where an already scarce food supply has been worsened by the 2010 flood.Method results are fully repeatable; whereas, for remote sensed data the sources of data are valid worldwide and the data regarding land use and crops characteristics are strongly site specific, which need to be carefully evaluated.These case studies stress the importance of integrating different analysis approaches to carry out an assessment of the

  13. Effects of anthropogenic land-subsidence on river flood hazard: a case study in Ravenna, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio

    2015-04-01

    Can differential land-subsidence significantly alter the river flooding dynamics, and thus flood risk in flood prone areas? Many studies show how the lowering of the coastal areas is closely related to an increase in the flood-hazard due to more important tidal flooding and see level rise. On the contrary, the literature on the relationship between differential land-subsidence and possible alterations to riverine flood-hazard of inland areas is still sparse, while several areas characterized by significant land-subsidence rates during the second half of the 20th century experienced an intensification in both inundation magnitude and frequency. This study investigates the possible impact of a significant differential ground lowering on flood hazard in proximity of Ravenna, which is one of the oldest Italian cities, former capital of the Western Roman Empire, located a few kilometers from the Adriatic coast and about 60 km south of the Po River delta. The rate of land-subsidence in the area, naturally in the order of a few mm/year, dramatically increased up to 110 mm/year after World War II, primarily due to groundwater pumping and a number of deep onshore and offshore gas production platforms. The subsidence caused in the last century a cumulative drop larger than 1.5 m in the historical center of the city. Starting from these evidences and taking advantage of a recent digital elevation model of 10m resolution, we reconstructed the ground elevation in 1897 for an area of about 65 km2 around the city of Ravenna. We referred to these two digital elevation models (i.e. current topography and topographic reconstruction) and a 2D finite-element numerical model for the simulation of the inundation dynamics associated with several levee failure scenarios along embankment system of the river Montone. For each scenario and digital elevation model, the flood hazard is quantified in terms of water depth, speed and dynamics of the flooding front. The comparison enabled us to

  14. Flood Risk Zoning by Using 2D Hydrodynamic Modeling: A Case Study in Jinan City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Cheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and rapid urbanization have aggravated the rainstorm flood in Jinan City during the past decades. Jinan City is higher in the south and lower in the north with a steep slope inclined from the south to the north. This results in high-velocity overland flow and deep waterlogging, which poses a tremendous threat to pedestrians and vehicles. Therefore, it is vital to investigate the rainstorm flood and further perform flood risk zoning. This study is carried out in the “Sponge City Construction” pilot area of Jinan City, where the InfoWorks ICM 2D hydrodynamic model is utilized for simulating historical and designed rainfall events. The model is validated with observations, and the causes for errors are analyzed. The simulated water depth and flow velocity are recorded for flood risk zoning. The result shows that the InfoWorks ICM 2D model performed well. The flood risk zoning result shows that rainfalls with larger recurrence intervals generate larger areas of moderate to extreme risk. Meanwhile, the zoning results for the two historical rainfalls show that flood with a higher maximum hourly rainfall intensity is more serious. This study will provide scientific support for the flood control and disaster reduction in Jinan City.

  15. Flood management of Dongting Lake after operation of Three Gorges Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xi-jun Lai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Full operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD reduces flood risk of the middle and lower parts of the Yangtze River Basin. However, Dongting Lake, which is located in the Yangtze River Basin, is still at high risk for potentially severe flooding in the future. The effects of the TGD on flood processes were investigated using a hydrodynamic model. The 1998 and 2010 flood events before and after the operation of the TGD, respectively, were analyzed. The numerical results show that the operation of the TGD changes flood processes, including the timing and magnitude of flood peaks in Dongting Lake. The TGD can effectively reduce the flood level in Dongting Lake, which is mainly caused by the flood water from the upper reach of the Yangtze River. This is not the case, however, for floods mainly induced by flood water from four main rivers in the catchment. In view of this, a comprehensive strategy for flood management in Dongting Lake is required. Non-engineering measures, such as warning systems and combined operation of the TGD and other reservoirs in the catchment, as well as traditional engineering measures, should be further improved. Meanwhile, a sustainable philosophy for flood control, including natural flood management and lake restoration, is recommended to reduce the flood risk.

  16. Comparing flood mortality in Portugal and Greece under a gender and age perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Susana; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios; Luís Zêzere, José

    2017-04-01

    Flood mortality is analyzed and compared between Portugal and Greece. Flood fatality incidents are explored and compared in terms of their temporal evolution, spatial distribution, deadliest flood types, surrounding environments, gender and age of the victims. A common flood fatalities database for the period 1960-2010 was formed by merging the DISASTER database for Portugal and the Greek database previously built from documental sources. Each entry of the database, corresponding to a flood fatal incident has the following attributes: (i) ID number of the flood case; (ii) the flood type (riverine flood, flash flood, urban flood, or not defined type); (iii) date (day-month-year); (iv) location (x and y coordinates); (v) number of fatalities; (vi) surrounding environment where the flood fatal incident occurred (i.e. outdoors on foot, outdoors inside a vehicle, or inside a building). (vii) gender of the victim (male, female, or gender not reported); (viii) age of the victim (65 years). Excluding the outlier 1967 flash flood event occurred in the Lisbon metropolitan area that caused 522 fatalities, Portugal recorded 114 flood fatalities (related to 80 flood cases) and Greece registered 189 fatalities (related to 57 flood cases). Results identified decreasing mortality trend in both countries, despite some fluctuations irregularly distributed over time. Since the 1980's the number of flood cases with multiple fatalities has been gradually decreasing. In both Greece and Portugal flash floods were responsible for more than 80% of flood mortality and the main metropolitan areas of each country (Athens and Lisbon) presented a clustering of fatalities, attributed to the higher population density combined with the presence of flood-prone areas. Indoor fatalities have been gradually reducing with time, whereas vehicle-related deaths have been rising in both countries. In both countries the majority of flood victims are males, indicating that males are more vulnerable to fatal

  17. Probabilistic Flood Mapping using Volunteered Geographical Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, S. J.; Girons Lopez, M.; Seibert, J.; Minsker, B. S.

    2016-12-01

    Flood extent maps are widely used by decision makers and first responders to provide critical information that prevents economic impacts and the loss of human lives. These maps are usually obtained from sensory data and/or hydrologic models, which often have limited coverage in space and time. Recent developments in social media and communication technology have created a wealth of near-real-time, user-generated content during flood events in many urban areas, such as flooded locations, pictures of flooding extent and height, etc. These data could improve decision-making and response operations as events unfold. However, the integration of these data sources has been limited due to the need for methods that can extract and translate the data into useful information for decision-making. This study presents an approach that uses volunteer geographic information (VGI) and non-traditional data sources (i.e., Twitter, Flicker, YouTube, and 911 and 311 calls) to generate/update the flood extent maps in areas where no models and/or gauge data are operational. The approach combines Web-crawling and computer vision techniques to gather information about the location, extent, and water height of the flood from unstructured textual data, images, and videos. These estimates are then used to provide an updated flood extent map for areas surrounding the geo-coordinate of the VGI through the application of a Hydro Growing Region Algorithm (HGRA). HGRA combines hydrologic and image segmentation concepts to estimate a probabilistic flooding extent along the corresponding creeks. Results obtained for a case study in Austin, TX (i.e., 2015 Memorial Day flood) were comparable to those obtained by a calibrated hydrologic model and had good spatial correlation with flooding extents estimated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

  18. Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

    2017-12-01

    Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

  19. Large Scale Processes and Extreme Floods in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; AghaKouchak, A.; Lall, U.

    2016-12-01

    Persistent large scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and ocean state have been associated with heavy rainfall and extreme floods in water basins of different sizes across the world. Such studies have emerged in the last years as a new tool to improve the traditional, stationary based approach in flood frequency analysis and flood prediction. Here we seek to advance previous studies by evaluating the dominance of large scale processes (e.g. atmospheric rivers/moisture transport) over local processes (e.g. local convection) in producing floods. We consider flood-prone regions in Brazil as case studies and the role of large scale climate processes in generating extreme floods in such regions is explored by means of observed streamflow, reanalysis data and machine learning methods. The dynamics of the large scale atmospheric circulation in the days prior to the flood events are evaluated based on the vertically integrated moisture flux and its divergence field, which are interpreted in a low-dimensional space as obtained by machine learning techniques, particularly supervised kernel principal component analysis. In such reduced dimensional space, clusters are obtained in order to better understand the role of regional moisture recycling or teleconnected moisture in producing floods of a given magnitude. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) is also used as a measure of local convection activities. We investigate for individual sites the exceedance probability in which large scale atmospheric fluxes dominate the flood process. Finally, we analyze regional patterns of floods and how the scaling law of floods with drainage area responds to changes in the climate forcing mechanisms (e.g. local vs large scale).

  20. Opisthorchiasis in Northeastern Thailand: Effect of local environment and culture

    OpenAIRE

    Beuy Joob; Viroj Wiwanitkit

    2015-01-01

    Opisthorchiasis is a kind of trematode infection. This parasitic infestation is a chronic hepatobiliary tract infection and can cause chronic irritation that will finally lead to cholangiocarcinoma. It is highly endemic in northeastern region of Thailand and contributes to many cholangiocarcinoma cases annually. The attempt to control the disease becomes a national policy. However, the sanitation becomes a major underlying factor leading to infection and meanwhile, the poverty ...

  1. Plant extractivism in light of game theory: a case study in northeastern Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Rafael RV; Gomes, Laura Jane; Albuquerque, Ulysses Paulino

    2015-01-01

    Background Game theory enables the predictive study of the behavior of agents that recognize the mutual interdependence of their decisions and act rationally and strategically to maximize their own gains. In this paper, the extractivism of pequi (Caryocar coriaceum Wittm.) and fava d?anta (Dimorphandra gardneriana Tul.) in an area of common use of the semiarid region of northeastern Brazil is described as a model to illustrate a practical application of game theory in the interpretation of th...

  2. Social Media Analysis For Organizations: Us Northeastern Public And State Libraries Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Collins, Matthew; Karami, Amir

    2018-01-01

    Social networking sites such as Twitter have provided a great opportunity for organizations such as public libraries to disseminate information for public relations purposes. However, there is a need to analyze vast amounts of social media data. This study presents a computational approach to explore the content of tweets posted by nine public libraries in the northeastern United States of America. In December 2017, this study extracted more than 19,000 tweets from the Twitter accounts of sev...

  3. Improving the active involvement of stakeholders and the public in flood risk management – tools of an involvement strategy and case study results from Austria, Germany and Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Vitale

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The EU Flood Risk Management Directive 2007/60/EC aims at an active involvement of interested parties in the setting up of flood risk management plans and thus calls for more governance-related decision-making. This requirement has two perspectives. On the one hand, there is (1 the question of how decision-makers can improve the quality of their governance process. On the other hand, there is (2 the question of how the public shall be appropriately informed and involved. These questions were the centre of the ERA-Net CRUE-funded project IMRA (integrative flood risk governance approach for improvement of risk awareness that aimed at an optimisation of the flood risk management process by increasing procedural efficiency with an explicit involvement strategy. To reach this goal, the IMRA project partners developed two new approaches that were implemented in three case study areas for the first time in flood risk management: 1. risk governance assessment tool: An indicator-based benchmarking and monitoring tool was used to evaluate the performance of a flood risk management system in regard to ideal risk governance principles; 2. social milieu approach: The concept of social milieus was used to gain a picture of the people living in the case study regions to learn more about their lifestyles, attitudes and values and to use this knowledge to plan custom-made information and participation activities for the broad public. This paper presents basic elements and the application of two innovative approaches as a part of an "involvement strategy" that aims at the active involvement of all interested parties (stakeholders for assessing, reviewing and updating flood risk management plans, as formulated in the EU Flood Risk Management Directive 2007/60/EC.

  4. Estimating flood discharge using witness movies in post-flood hydrological surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Coz, Jérôme; Hauet, Alexandre; Le Boursicaud, Raphaël; Pénard, Lionel; Bonnifait, Laurent; Dramais, Guillaume; Thollet, Fabien; Braud, Isabelle

    2015-04-01

    The estimation of streamflow rates based on post-flood surveys is of paramount importance for the investigation of extreme hydrological events. Major uncertainties usually arise from the absence of information on the flow velocities and from the limited spatio-temporal resolution of such surveys. Nowadays, after each flood occuring in populated areas home movies taken from bridges, river banks or even drones are shared by witnesses through Internet platforms like YouTube. Provided that some topography data and additional information are collected, image-based velocimetry techniques can be applied to some of these movie materials, in order to estimate flood discharges. As a contribution to recent post-flood surveys conducted in France, we developed and applied a method for estimating velocities and discharges based on the Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV) technique. Since the seminal work of Fujita et al. (1998), LSPIV applications to river flows were reported by a number of authors and LSPIV can now be considered a mature technique. However, its application to non-professional movies taken by flood witnesses remains challenging and required some practical developments. The different steps to apply LSPIV analysis to a flood home movie are as follows: (i) select a video of interest; (ii) contact the author for agreement and extra information; (iii) conduct a field topography campaign to georeference Ground Control Points (GCPs), water level and cross-sectional profiles; (iv) preprocess the video before LSPIV analysis: correct lens distortion, align the images, etc.; (v) orthorectify the images to correct perspective effects and know the physical size of pixels; (vi) proceed with the LSPIV analysis to compute the surface velocity field; and (vii) compute discharge according to a user-defined velocity coefficient. Two case studies in French mountainous rivers during extreme floods are presented. The movies were collected on YouTube and field topography

  5. Hazard Experience, Geophysical Vulnerability, and Flood Risk Perceptions in a Postdisaster City, the Case of New Orleans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gotham, Kevin Fox; Campanella, Richard; Lauve-Moon, Katie; Powers, Bradford

    2018-02-01

    This article investigates the determinants of flood risk perceptions in New Orleans, Louisiana (United States), a deltaic coastal city highly vulnerable to seasonal nuisance flooding and hurricane-induced deluges and storm surges. Few studies have investigated the influence of hazard experience, geophysical vulnerability (hazard proximity), and risk perceptions in cities undergoing postdisaster recovery and rebuilding. We use ordinal logistic regression techniques to analyze experiential, geophysical, and sociodemographic variables derived from a survey of 384 residents in seven neighborhoods. We find that residents living in neighborhoods that flooded during Hurricane Katrina exhibit higher levels of perceived risk than those residents living in neighborhoods that did not flood. In addition, findings suggest that flood risk perception is positively associated with female gender, lower income, and direct flood experiences. In conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings for theoretical and empirical research on environmental risk, flood risk communication strategies, and flood hazards planning. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Collaborative modelling for active involvement of stakeholders in urban flood risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Evers

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to enhance the role of local stakeholders in dealing with urban floods. The concept is based on the DIANE-CM project (Decentralised Integrated Analysis and Enhancement of Awareness through Collaborative Modelling and Management of Flood Risk of the 2nd ERANET CRUE funding initiative. The main objective of the project was to develop and test an advanced methodology for enhancing the resilience of local communities to flooding. Through collaborative modelling, a social learning process was initiated that enhances the social capacity of the stakeholders due to the interaction process. The other aim of the project was to better understand how data from hazard and vulnerability analyses and improved maps, as well as from the near real-time flood prediction, can be used to initiate a public dialogue (i.e. collaborative mapping and planning activities in order to carry out more informed and shared decision-making processes and to enhance flood risk awareness. The concept of collaborative modelling was applied in two case studies: (1 the Cranbrook catchment in the UK, with focus on pluvial flooding; and (2 the Alster catchment in Germany, with focus on fluvial flooding. As a result of the interactive and social learning process, supported by sociotechnical instruments, an understanding of flood risk was developed amongst the stakeholders and alternatives for flood risk management for the respective case study area were jointly developed and ranked as a basis for further planning and management.

  7. Flood Risk Management In Europe: European flood regulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hegger, D.L.T.; Bakker, M.H.; Green, C.; Driessen, Peter; Delvaux, B.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van; Suykens, C.; Beyers, J-C.; Deketelaere, K.; Doorn-Hoekveld, W. van; Dieperink, C.

    2013-01-01

    In Europe, water management is moving from flood defense to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. In this report, we will look at Directives and (non-)EU- initiatives in place to deal with flood risk in Europe indirectly

  8. [Social and environmental vulnerability, flooding and repercussions on public health in underdeveloped regions: the case of the state of Alagoas, Brazil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Neison Cabral Ferreira; Bonfim, Cristine Vieira do; Natenzon, Claudia Eleonor

    2014-09-01

    The scope of this article is to analyze the social and environmental vulnerability of the population affected by disasters adopting the floods that occurred in the State of Alagoas in 2010 as a case study. For this, research was conducted in the Scielo and Medline databases as well as books, dissertations and theses. In addition, newspaper articles published in the local and national press about these floods were located and examined. A visit was made to some of the individuals who were affected by the flood and subsequently housed in the Santa Fé Prison Colony located in the municipality of União dos Palmares in the State of Alagoas. Among other aspects, the vulnerability is a consequence of the precarious living conditions of this population. However, even among the vulnerable there are some groups that are even more vulnerable without any possibility of changing a situation of chronic repetition of the disaster, perpetuating the vicious cycle of poverty and precarious living conditions.

  9. Citizen involvement in flood risk governance: flood groups and networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Twigger-Ross Clare

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decade has been a policy shift withinUK flood risk management towards localism with an emphasis on communities taking ownership of flood risk. There is also an increased focus on resilience and, more specifically, on community resilience to flooding. This paper draws on research carried out for UK Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs to evaluate the Flood Resilience Community Pathfinder (FRCP scheme in England. Resilience is conceptualised as multidimensional and linked to exisiting capacities within a community. Creating resilience to flooding is an ongoing process of adaptation, learning from past events and preparing for future risks. This paper focusses on the development of formal and informal institutions to support improved flood risk management: institutional resilience capacity. It includes new institutions: e.g. flood groups, as well as activities that help to build inter- and intra- institutional resilience capacity e.g. community flood planning. The pathfinder scheme consisted of 13 projects across England led by local authorities aimed at developing community resilience to flood risk between 2013 – 2015. This paper discusses the nature and structure of flood groups, the process of their development, and the extent of their linkages with formal institutions, drawing out the barriers and facilitators to developing institutional resilience at the local level.

  10. Investigating compound flooding in an estuary using hydrodynamic modelling: a case study from the Shoalhaven River, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumbier, Kristian; Carvalho, Rafael C.; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Woodroffe, Colin D.

    2018-02-01

    Many previous modelling studies have considered storm-tide and riverine flooding independently, even though joint-probability analysis highlighted significant dependence between extreme rainfall and extreme storm surges in estuarine environments. This study investigates compound flooding by quantifying horizontal and vertical differences in coastal flood risk estimates resulting from a separation of storm-tide and riverine flooding processes. We used an open-source version of the Delft3D model to simulate flood extent and inundation depth due to a storm event that occurred in June 2016 in the Shoalhaven Estuary, south-eastern Australia. Time series of observed water levels and discharge measurements are used to force model boundaries, whereas observational data such as satellite imagery, aerial photographs, tidal gauges and water level logger measurements are used to validate modelling results. The comparison of simulation results including and excluding riverine discharge demonstrated large differences in modelled flood extents and inundation depths. A flood risk assessment accounting only for storm-tide flooding would have underestimated the flood extent of the June 2016 storm event by 30 % (20.5 km2). Furthermore, inundation depths would have been underestimated on average by 0.34 m and by up to 1.5 m locally. We recommend considering storm-tide and riverine flooding processes jointly in estuaries with large catchment areas, which are known to have a quick response time to extreme rainfall. In addition, comparison of different boundary set-ups at the intermittent entrance in Shoalhaven Heads indicated that a permanent opening, in order to reduce exposure to riverine flooding, would increase tidal range and exposure to both storm-tide flooding and wave action.

  11. High-resolution urban flood modelling - a joint probability approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartnett, Michael; Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen

    2017-04-01

    (Divoky et al., 2005). Nevertheless, such events occur and in Ireland alone there are several cases of serious damage due to flooding resulting from a combination of high sea water levels and river flows driven by the same meteorological conditions (e.g. Olbert et al. 2015). A November 2009 fluvial-coastal flooding of Cork City bringing €100m loss was one such incident. This event was used by Olbert et al. (2015) to determine processes controlling urban flooding and is further explored in this study to elaborate on coastal and fluvial flood mechanisms and their roles in controlling water levels. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to assess combined effect of multiple source flooding on flood probability and severity in urban areas and to establish a set of conditions that dictate urban flooding due to extreme climatic events. These conditions broadly combine physical flood drivers (such as coastal and fluvial processes), their mechanisms and thresholds defining flood severity. The two main physical processes controlling urban flooding: high sea water levels (coastal flooding) and high river flows (fluvial flooding), and their threshold values for which flood is likely to occur, are considered in this study. Contribution of coastal and fluvial drivers to flooding and their impacts are assessed in a two-step process. The first step involves frequency analysis and extreme value statistical modelling of storm surges, tides and river flows and ultimately the application of joint probability method to estimate joint exceedence return periods for combination of surges, tide and river flows. In the second step, a numerical model of Cork Harbour MSN_Flood comprising a cascade of four nested high-resolution models is used to perform simulation of flood inundation under numerous hypothetical coastal and fluvial flood scenarios. The risk of flooding is quantified based on a range of physical aspects such as the extent and depth of inundation (Apel et al

  12. Shortage and surplus of water in the socio-hydrological context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schumann

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Balancing the temporal variability of hydrological conditions in the long- and short-term is often essential for steady socio-economic conditions. However, this equilibrium is very fragile in many cases. Hydrological changes or socio-economic changes may destroy it in a short time. If we extend the bearing capacity of socio-hydrological systems we increase, in many cases, the harmful consequences of failures. Here, two case studies are discussed to illustrate these problems. The limited success at adapting water resources to increasing human requirements without consideration of the natural capacities will be discussed with the example of water use for irrigation in northeastern China. The demand for a new planning approach, which is based on a combination of monitoring, model-based impact assessments and spatial distributed planning, is demonstrated. The problems of water surplus, which becomes evident during floods, are discussed in a second case study. It is shown that flood protection depends strongly on expectations of flood characteristics. The gap between the social requirement for complete flood prevention and the remaining risk of flood damage becomes obvious. An increase of risk-awareness would be more sustainable than promises of flood protection, which are the basis for technical measures to affect floods and (or to prevent flood damages.

  13. Shortage and surplus of water in the socio-hydrological context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, A.; Nijssen, d.

    2014-09-01

    Balancing the temporal variability of hydrological conditions in the long- and short-term is often essential for steady socio-economic conditions. However, this equilibrium is very fragile in many cases. Hydrological changes or socio-economic changes may destroy it in a short time. If we extend the bearing capacity of socio-hydrological systems we increase, in many cases, the harmful consequences of failures. Here, two case studies are discussed to illustrate these problems. The limited success at adapting water resources to increasing human requirements without consideration of the natural capacities will be discussed with the example of water use for irrigation in northeastern China. The demand for a new planning approach, which is based on a combination of monitoring, model-based impact assessments and spatial distributed planning, is demonstrated. The problems of water surplus, which becomes evident during floods, are discussed in a second case study. It is shown that flood protection depends strongly on expectations of flood characteristics. The gap between the social requirement for complete flood prevention and the remaining risk of flood damage becomes obvious. An increase of risk-awareness would be more sustainable than promises of flood protection, which are the basis for technical measures to affect floods and (or) to prevent flood damages.

  14. Utilising social media contents for flood inundation mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Dransch, Doris; Fohringer, Joachim; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Data about the hazard and its consequences are scarce and not readily available during and shortly after a disaster. An information source which should be explored in a more efficient way is eyewitness accounts via social media. This research presents a methodology that leverages social media content to support rapid inundation mapping, including inundation extent and water depth in the case of floods. It uses quantitative data that are estimated from photos extracted from social media posts and their integration with established data. Due to the rapid availability of these posts compared to traditional data sources such as remote sensing data, areas affected by a flood, for example, can be determined quickly. Key challenges are to filter the large number of posts to a manageable amount of potentially useful inundation-related information, and to interpret and integrate the posts into mapping procedures in a timely manner. We present a methodology and a tool ("PostDistiller") to filter geo-located posts from social media services which include links to photos and to further explore this spatial distributed contextualized in situ information for inundation mapping. The June 2013 flood in Dresden is used as an application case study in which we evaluate the utilization of this approach and compare the resulting spatial flood patterns and inundation depths to 'traditional' data sources and mapping approaches like water level observations and remote sensing flood masks. The outcomes of the application case are encouraging. Strengths of the proposed procedure are that information for the estimation of inundation depth is rapidly available, particularly in urban areas where it is of high interest and of great value because alternative information sources like remote sensing data analysis do not perform very well. The uncertainty of derived inundation depth data and the uncontrollable availability of the information sources are major threats to the utility of the approach.

  15. Interdisciplinary Approach for Assessment of Continental River Flood Risk: A Case Study of the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ushiyama, Tomoki; Kwak, Youngjoo; Ledvinka, Ondřej; Iwami, Yoichi; Danhelka, Jan

    2017-04-01

    In this research, GIS-based hydrological model-driven approach produces the distribution of continent-level flood risk based on national-level GIS data. In order to reveal flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a large river basin, the system employs the simplified model such as GFiD2M (Global Flood inundation Depth 2-dimension Model) to calculate the differential inundation depth and the economic loss by pixel-based statistical processing, considering climate and socioeconomic scenarios, the representative concentration pathways emissions and the shared socioeconomic pathways, despite current limitations of data collections and poor data availability. We need new approaches to seek the possibility of its national-scale application, so that the framework can bring (1) improved flood inundation map (i.e., discharge, depth, velocity) using rainfall runoff inundation model, based on the in-situ data (rain-gauge and water level), validated with Earth Observation data, i.e., MODIS, (2) advanced flood forecasting using radar and satellite observed rainfall for national-level operational hydrological observations, (3) potential economic impact with the effect of flood hazard and risk under climate and socioeconomic changes based on rainfall from general circulation model. The preliminary examinations showed the better possibility of a nation-wide application for integrated flood risk management. At the same time, the hazard and risk model were also validated against event-based flood inundation of a national-level flood in the Czech Republic. Within the Czech Republic, although radar rainfall data have been used in operational hydrology for some time, there are also other products capable of warning us about the potential risk of floods. For instance, images from Europe's Sentinel satellites have not been evaluated for their use in Czech hydrology. This research is at the very beginning of a validation and its evaluation, focusing mainly on heavy rainfall and

  16. Gender disparities in flood risk perception and preparedness: a Serbian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvetković, Vladimir M.; Roder, Giulia; Tarolli, Paolo; Öcal, Adem; Ronan, Kevin; Dragićević, Slavoljub

    2017-04-01

    The catastrophic flood occurred in Serbia in 2014 was one of the most critical events registered in the Balkan area in the last decades. The procedures for evacuation have been tough to manage indicating a low level of perception and preparedness towards flood events. Also, the failure in the response phase showed a gender unbalance, where information did not reach men and women equally. Urgently, the Council for Gender Equality Government of the Republic of Serbia held an extraordinary meeting dedicated to the flood planning and emergency support in a gendered perspective. It concluded with the necessity of developing more gender-sensitive statistics, indicators of vulnerability, reconstruction and recovery to floods. For these reasons, we conducted an extensive interview to underlined the differences in risk perception and preparedness actions of both women and men regarding flood events in Serbia. 2500 face-to-face interviews have been conducted in 27 out of 150 municipalities being a good representative sample of the country with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research findings indicated that is a gender disparity among men and women both in the perception than in the preparedness actions toward floods. Men seemed to be more confident in their abilities to cope with flooding, assessing a greater individual and household preparedness. This could be ascribable to their active involvement in the army where young men were educated to manage emergency situations. They displayed more trust in themselves rather than external agencies or organisation, and this could result in a general mistrust on institutions and planned evacuations. On the other hand, women displayed larger sensitivity and knowledge to these events, however, this did not translate into a capacity to react. It has been assumed that their work as child-carers and housekeepers made them unable to create a strong social network within the community being less informed and involved in the

  17. Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

    2015-12-01

    The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

  18. The efficiency of asset management strategies to reduce urban flood risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Veldhuis, J A E; Clemens, F H L R

    2011-01-01

    In this study, three asset management strategies were compared with respect to their efficiency to reduce flood risk. Data from call centres at two municipalities were used to quantify urban flood risks associated with three causes of urban flooding: gully pot blockage, sewer pipe blockage and sewer overloading. The efficiency of three flood reduction strategies was assessed based on their effect on the causes contributing to flood risk. The sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in the data source, citizens' calls, was analysed through incorporation of uncertainty ranges taken from customer complaint literature. Based on the available data it could be shown that increasing gully pot blockage is the most efficient action to reduce flood risk, given data uncertainty. If differences between cause incidences are large, as in the presented case study, call data are sufficient to decide how flood risk can be most efficiently reduced. According to the results of this analysis, enlargement of sewer pipes is not an efficient strategy to reduce flood risk, because flood risk associated with sewer overloading is small compared to other failure mechanisms.

  19. Opportunities for corruption across Flood Disaster Management (FDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordin, R. Mohd; Latip, E.; Zawawi, E. M. Ahmad; Ismail, Z.

    2018-02-01

    Flood is one of the major disasters in the world. Despite flood resulted in loss of life and damaged properties, it naturally imparts people to assist the victims that affected by the disaster. Malaysia has experienced many serious flooding events and proper flood disaster management need to be developed and adopted occasionally. Flood Disaster Management (FDM) seemed to be not working effectively especially during the Kelantan prodigious flood in December 2014. There were negative perceptions among victims and Malaysian citizens regarding the disaster management and government authorities in relation to corrupt practices. The FDM can be divided into four phases (i.e., prevention, preparedness, response and recovery) which undoubtedly corruption is perceived to exists in every phase. The aim of this study is to identify opportunities of corruption across FDM phases. The study presents a case study of Kelantan using the quantitative research approach which utilises questionnaire with government and private agencies. Further to that, this paper proved that opportunities for corruption may occur at every phase, undoubtedly response and recovery phase especially activities involving fund and donation are riskier. The findings are hoped to assist in developing an improved FDM in term of increased transparency.

  20. Environmental injustice and flood risk: A conceptual model and case comparison of metropolitan Miami and Houston, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Timothy W; Grineski, Sara E; Chakraborty, Jayajit

    2018-02-01

    This article outlines a conceptual model and comparatively applies it to results from environmental justice (EJ) studies of flood risk in the Miami, Florida, and Houston, Texas, metropolitan areas. In contrast to most EJ studies of air pollution, which have found that socially-vulnerable groups experience disproportionate risk, distributive EJ studies of flooding reveal inconsistent findings regarding the relationship between social vulnerability and flood exposure. Counterintuitively (from a conventional EJ perspective), some pre-flood EJ studies have found that socially-advantaged people experience the highest residential exposure to flood risks. To integrate those anomalous findings within an EJ perspective, our conceptual model focuses on (1) the differential capacities of social groups to deploy/access protective resources for reducing the threat of loss, even while they reside amid flood-prone environments, and (2) both flood hazards and water-based benefits. Application of this model in Miami reveals that environmental injustices materialize as socially-privileged groups expose themselves to residential flood risks by seeking coastal amenities, as the costs of mitigating risks are conveyed to the broader public; in the process, socially-vulnerable residents are relegated to areas with air pollution and/or inland flood risks, where they experience constrained access to protective resources and coastal amenities. Findings from Houston better align with conventional EJ expectations-with flood zones disproportionately inhabited by socially-vulnerable people-because many coastal lands there are used by petrochemical industries, which produce major residential-environmental disamenities . Results underscore the need to consider protective resources and locational benefits in future empirical research on the EJ implications of flood hazards.

  1. Flood damage: a model for consistent, complete and multipurpose scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menoni, Scira; Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Minucci, Guido; Mejri, Ouejdane; Atun, Funda; Berni, Nicola; Pandolfo, Claudia

    2016-12-01

    Effective flood risk mitigation requires the impacts of flood events to be much better and more reliably known than is currently the case. Available post-flood damage assessments usually supply only a partial vision of the consequences of the floods as they typically respond to the specific needs of a particular stakeholder. Consequently, they generally focus (i) on particular items at risk, (ii) on a certain time window after the occurrence of the flood, (iii) on a specific scale of analysis or (iv) on the analysis of damage only, without an investigation of damage mechanisms and root causes. This paper responds to the necessity of a more integrated interpretation of flood events as the base to address the variety of needs arising after a disaster. In particular, a model is supplied to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios. The model organizes available information after the event according to five logical axes. This way post-flood damage assessments can be developed that (i) are multisectoral, (ii) consider physical as well as functional and systemic damage, (iii) address the spatial scales that are relevant for the event at stake depending on the type of damage that has to be analyzed, i.e., direct, functional and systemic, (iv) consider the temporal evolution of damage and finally (v) allow damage mechanisms and root causes to be understood. All the above features are key for the multi-usability of resulting flood scenarios. The model allows, on the one hand, the rationalization of efforts currently implemented in ex post damage assessments, also with the objective of better programming financial resources that will be needed for these types of events in the future. On the other hand, integrated interpretations of flood events are fundamental to adapting and optimizing flood mitigation strategies on the basis of thorough forensic investigation of each event, as corroborated by the implementation of the model in a case study.

  2. Peak flood estimation using gene expression programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorn, Conrad R.; Shamseldin, Asaad Y.

    2015-12-01

    As a case study for the Auckland Region of New Zealand, this paper investigates the potential use of gene-expression programming (GEP) in predicting specific return period events in comparison to the established and widely used Regional Flood Estimation (RFE) method. Initially calibrated to 14 gauged sites, the GEP derived model was further validated to 10 and 100 year flood events with a relative errors of 29% and 18%, respectively. This is compared to the RFE method providing 48% and 44% errors for the same flood events. While the effectiveness of GEP in predicting specific return period events is made apparent, it is argued that the derived equations should be used in conjunction with those existing methodologies rather than as a replacement.

  3. A Novel Flood Forecasting Method Based on Initial State Variable Correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuang Li

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The influence of initial state variables on flood forecasting accuracy by using conceptual hydrological models is analyzed in this paper and a novel flood forecasting method based on correction of initial state variables is proposed. The new method is abbreviated as ISVC (Initial State Variable Correction. The ISVC takes the residual between the measured and forecasted flows during the initial period of the flood event as the objective function, and it uses a particle swarm optimization algorithm to correct the initial state variables, which are then used to drive the flood forecasting model. The historical flood events of 11 watersheds in south China are forecasted and verified, and important issues concerning the ISVC application are then discussed. The study results show that the ISVC is effective and applicable in flood forecasting tasks. It can significantly improve the flood forecasting accuracy in most cases.

  4. Flood-rich and flood-poor periods in Spain in 1942-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

    2016-04-01

    Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Mediero et al. (2015) studied flood trends by using the longest streamflow records available in Europe. They found a decreasing trend in the Atlantic, Continental and Scandinavian regions. More specifically, Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in Spain in the period 1959-2009. Trends in flood series are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test applied to a given period. However, the result of the Mann-Kendall test can change in terms of the starting and ending year of the series. Flood oscillations can occur and flood-rich and flood-poor periods could condition the results, especially when they are located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to the longest series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. A flood-rich period in 1950-1970 and a flood-poor period in 1970-1990 are identified in most of the selected sites. The generalised decreasing trend in flood series found by Mediero et al. (2014) could be explained by a flood-rich period placed at the beginning of the series and a flood-poor period located at the end of the series. References: Mediero, L., Kjeldsen, T.R., Macdonald, N., Kohnova, S., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Wilson, D., Alburquerque, T., Blöschl, G., Bogdanowicz, E., Castellarin, A., Hall, J., Kobold, M., Kriauciuniene, J., Lang, M., Madsen, H., Onuşluel Gül, G., Perdigão, R.A.P., Roald, L.A., Salinas, J.L., Toumazis, A.D., Veijalainen, N., Óðinn Þórarinsson. Identification of coherent flood

  5. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  6. Distributed lag effects and vulnerable groups of floods on bacillary dysentery in Huaihua, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhi-Dong; Li, Jing; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guo-Yong; Xu, Xin; Gao, Lu; Liu, Xue-Na; Liu, Qi-Yong; Jiang, Bao-Fa

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the potential links between floods and bacillary dysentery in China is important to develop appropriate intervention programs after floods. This study aimed to explore the distributed lag effects of floods on bacillary dysentery and to identify the vulnerable groups in Huaihua, China. Weekly number of bacillary dysentery cases from 2005–2011 were obtained during flood season. Flood data and meteorological data over the same period were obtained from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. To examine the distributed lag effects, a generalized linear mixed model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model were developed to assess the relationship between floods and bacillary dysentery. A total of 3,709 cases of bacillary dysentery were notified over the study period. The effects of floods on bacillary dysentery continued for approximately 3 weeks with a cumulative risk ratio equal to 1.52 (95% CI: 1.08–2.12). The risks of bacillary dysentery were higher in females, farmers and people aged 15–64 years old. This study suggests floods have increased the risk of bacillary dysentery with 3 weeks’ effects, especially for the vulnerable groups identified. Public health programs should be taken to prevent and control a potential risk of bacillary dysentery after floods. PMID:27427387

  7. A dimension reduction method for flood compensation operation of multi-reservoir system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, B.; Wu, S.; Fan, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Multiple reservoirs cooperation compensation operations coping with uncontrolled flood play vital role in real-time flood mitigation. This paper come up with a reservoir flood compensation operation index (ResFCOI), which formed by elements of flood control storage, flood inflow volume, flood transmission time and cooperation operations period, then establish a flood cooperation compensation operations model of multi-reservoir system, according to the ResFCOI to determine a computational order of each reservoir, and lastly the differential evolution algorithm is implemented for computing single reservoir flood compensation optimization in turn, so that a dimension reduction method is formed to reduce computational complexity. Shiguan River Basin with two large reservoirs and an extensive uncontrolled flood area, is used as a case study, results show that (a) reservoirs' flood discharges and the uncontrolled flood are superimposed at Jiangjiaji Station, while the formed flood peak flow is as small as possible; (b) cooperation compensation operations slightly increase in usage of flood storage capacity in reservoirs, when comparing to rule-based operations; (c) it takes 50 seconds in average when computing a cooperation compensation operations scheme. The dimension reduction method to guide flood compensation operations of multi-reservoir system, can make each reservoir adjust its flood discharge strategy dynamically according to the uncontrolled flood magnitude and pattern, so as to mitigate the downstream flood disaster.

  8. Flooding and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in Massachusetts: A case-crossover study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Introduction: Floods and other severe weather events are anticipated to increase as a result of global climate change. Floods can lead to outbreaks of gastroenteritis and other infectious diseases due to disruption of sewage and water infrastructure and impacts on san...

  9. Rethinking the relationship between flood risk perception and flood management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholz, S; Muro, M; Jeffrey, P; Smith, H M

    2014-04-15

    Although flood risk perceptions and their concomitant motivations for behaviour have long been recognised as significant features of community resilience in the face of flooding events, there has, for some time now, been a poorly appreciated fissure in the accompanying literature. Specifically, rationalist and constructivist paradigms in the broader domain of risk perception provide different (though not always conflicting) contexts for interpreting evidence and developing theory. This contribution reviews the major constructs that have been applied to understanding flood risk perceptions and contextualises these within broader conceptual developments around risk perception theory and contemporary thinking around flood risk management. We argue that there is a need to re-examine and re-invigorate flood risk perception research, in a manner that is comprehensively underpinned by more constructivist thinking around flood risk management as well as by developments in broader risk perception research. We draw attention to an historical over-emphasis on the cognitive perceptions of those at risk to the detriment of a richer understanding of a wider range of flood risk perceptions such as those of policy-makers or of tax-payers who live outside flood affected areas as well as the linkages between these perspectives and protective measures such as state-supported flood insurance schemes. Conclusions challenge existing understandings of the relationship between risk perception and flood management, particularly where the latter relates to communication strategies and the extent to which those at risk from flooding feel responsible for taking protective actions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Specifying risk management standard for flood risk assessment: a framework for resources allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunika Anastasia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available General risk management standard, e.g. ISO 31000:2009, approaches risk as a coin with a pair of two sides, i.e. the threat and the opportunity. However, it is hardly the case of flood events which mainly come as threats. Despite the contrary, this study explores the potential applicability of the available risk management standards specifically for flood. It then also synthesizes the components to result a framework for allocating resources among various strategies to result the optimum flood risk reduction. In order to review its applicability, the framework is then reviewed using several historic flood risk reduction cases. Its results are qualitatively discussed and summarized including the possible improvement of the framework for further applications.

  12. A Methodology to Define Flood Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tourbier, J.

    2012-04-01

    Flood resilience has become an internationally used term with an ever-increasing number of entries on the Internet. The SMARTeST Project is looking at approaches to flood resilience through case studies at cities in various countries, including Washington D.C. in the United States. In light of U.S. experiences a methodology is being proposed by the author that is intended to meet ecologic, spatial, structural, social, disaster relief and flood risk aspects. It concludes that: "Flood resilience combines (1) spatial, (2) structural, (3) social, and (4) risk management levels of flood preparedness." Flood resilience should incorporate all four levels, but not necessarily with equal emphasis. Stakeholders can assign priorities within different flood resilience levels and the considerations they contain, dividing 100% emphasis into four levels. This evaluation would be applied to planned and completed projects, considering existing conditions, goals and concepts. We have long known that the "road to market" for the implementation of flood resilience is linked to capacity building of stakeholders. It is a multidisciplinary enterprise, involving the integration of all the above aspects into the decision-making process. Traditional flood management has largely been influenced by what in the UK has been called "Silo Thinking", involving constituent organizations that are responsible for different elements, and are interested only in their defined part of the system. This barrier to innovation also has been called the "entrapment effect". Flood resilience is being defined as (1) SPATIAL FLOOD RESILIENCE implying the management of land by floodplain zoning, urban greening and management to reduce storm runoff through depression storage and by practicing Sustainable Urban Drainage (SUD's), Best Management Practices (BMP's, or Low Impact Development (LID). Ecologic processes and cultural elements are included. (2) STRUCTURAL FLOOD RESILIENCE referring to permanent flood defense

  13. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

    2017-12-01

    The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push

  14. Simulation of the 2008 Iowa Flood using HiResFlood-UCI Model with Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, P.; Thorstensen, A. R.; Hsu, K. L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Sorooshian, S.

    2014-12-01

    Precipitation is a key forcing variable in hydrological modeling of floods and being able to accurately observe precipitation is extremely important in mitigating flood impacts. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission, launched in Feb 2014 also presents an opportunity for high-quality real-time precipitation data and improved flood warnings. The PERSIANN-CCS developed by the scientists at the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) at the University of California, Irvine is one algorithm integrated in the IMERG of PMM/GPM. In this research, the high resolution coupled hydrologic/hydraulic model named HiResFlood-UCI was applied to simulate the historical 2008 Iowa flood in the Cedar River basin. HiResFlood-UCI is a coupling of the NWS's distributed hydrologic model HL-RDHM and the hydraulic model BreZo developed by the Computational Hydraulics Group at the University of California, Irvine. The model was forced with the real-time PERSIANN-CCS and NEXRAD Stage 2 precipitation data. Simulations were evaluated based on 2 criteria: hydrographs within the basin and the areal extent of the flooding. Streamflow hydrographs were compared at 7 USGS gages, and simulated inundation maps were evaluated using USDA AWiFS 56m resolution areal flood imagery. The results show reasonable simulated hydrographs compared to USGS streamflow observations when simulating with PERSIANN-CCS and NEXRAD Stage 2 as forcing inputs. The simulation driven by NEXRAD Stage 2 slightly outperforms the PERSIANN-CCS simulation as the latter marginally underestimated the observed hydrographs. The simulation in both cases shows a good agreement (0.672 and 0.727 CSI for Stage 2 and PERSIANN-CCS simulations respectively) with the AWiFS image over the most impacted area in the Cedar Rapids region. Since the PERSIANN-CCS simulation slightly underestimated the discharge, the probability of detection (0.925) is lower than that of the Stage 2 simulation (0.965). As a trade-off, the false

  15. Swiss Re Global Flood Hazard Zones: Know your flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinukollu, R. K.; Castaldi, A.; Mehlhorn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Floods, among all natural disasters, have a great damage potential. On a global basis, there is strong evidence of increase in the number of people affected and economic losses due to floods. For example, global insured flood losses have increased by 12% every year since 1970 and this is expected to further increase with growing exposure in the high risk areas close to rivers and coastlines. Recently, the insurance industry has been surprised by the large extent of losses, because most countries lack reliable hazard information. One example has been the 2011 Thailand floods where millions of people were affected and the total economic losses were 30 billion USD. In order to assess the flood risk across different regions and countries, the flood team at Swiss Re based on a Geomorphologic Regression approach, developed in house and patented, produced global maps of flood zones. Input data for the study was obtained from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation data, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and HydroSHEDS. The underlying assumptions of the approach are that naturally flowing rivers shape their channel and flood plain according to basin inherent forces and characteristics and that the flood water extent strongly depends on the shape of the flood plain. On the basis of the catchment characteristics, the model finally calculates the probability of a location to be flooded or not for a defined return period, which in the current study was set to 100 years. The data is produced at a 90-m resolution for latitudes 60S to 60N. This global product is now used in the insurance industry to inspect, inform and/or insure the flood risk across the world.

  16. Floods of the Lower Tisza from the late 17th century onwards: frequency, magnitude, seasonality and great flood events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    The present paper is based on a recently developed database including contemporary original, administrative, legal and private source materials (published and archival) as well as media reports related to the floods occurred on the lower sections of the Tisza river in Hungary, with special emphasis on the area of Szeged town. The study area is well-represented by contemporary source evidence from the late 17th century onwards, when the town and its broader area was reoccupied from the Ottoman Turkish Empire. Concerning the applied source materials, the main bases of investigation are the administrative (archival) sources such as town council protocols of Szeged and county meeting protocols of Csanád and Csongrád Counties. In these (legal-)administrative documents damaging events (natural/environmental hazards) were systematically recorded. Moreover, other source types such as taxation-related damage accounts as well as private and official reports, letters and correspondence (published, unpublished) were also included. Concerning published evidence, a most important source is flood reports in contemporary newspapers as well as town chronicles and other contemporary narratives. In the presentation the main focus is on the analysis of flood-rich flood-poor periods of the last ca. 330 years; moreover, the seasonality distribution as well as the magnitude of Tisza flood events are also discussed. Another important aim of the poster is to provide a short overview, in the form of case studies, on the greatest flood events (e.g. duration, magnitude, damages, multi-annual consequences), and their further impacts on the urban and countryside development as well as on (changes in) flood defence strategies. In this respect, especially two flood events, the great (1815-)1816 and the catastrophic 1879 flood (shortly with causes and consequences) - that practically erased Szeged town from the ground - are presented in more detail.

  17. Hydrological Retrospective of floods and droughts: Case study in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Rodrigo; Carlo Espinoza Villar, Jhan; Collischonn, Walter

    2017-04-01

    Recent studies have reported an increase in intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in many regions of the Amazon basin over last decades, these events such as seasonal floods and droughts have originated a significant impact in human and natural systems. Recently, methodologies such as climatic reanalysis are being developed in order to create a coherent register of climatic systems, thus taking this notion, this research efforts to produce a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), that essentially simulate large rainfall datasets over hydrological models in order to develop a record over past hydrology, enabling the analysis of past floods and droughts. We developed our methodology on the Amazon basin, thus we used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) through a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH), after that HR products were validated against several in situ discharge gauges dispersed throughout Amazon basin, given focus in maximum and minimum events. For better HR results according performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts considering in-situ observations. Furthermore, statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and drought in the whole Amazon basin. Results indicate that better HR represented well most past extreme events registered by in-situ observed data and also showed coherent with many events cited by literature, thus we consider viable to use some large precipitation datasets as climatic reanalysis mainly based on land surface component and datasets based in merged products for represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events. On the other hand, an increase trend of intensity was realized for maximum annual discharges (related to floods) in north-western regions and for minimum annual discharges (related to drought) in central-south regions of the Amazon basin, these features were

  18. Improving Flood Predictions in Data-Scarce Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vimal, Solomon; Zanardo, Stefano; Rafique, Farhat; Hilberts, Arno

    2017-04-01

    Flood modeling methodology at Risk Management Solutions Ltd. has evolved over several years with the development of continental scale flood risk models spanning most of Europe, the United States and Japan. Pluvial (rain fed) and fluvial (river fed) flood maps represent the basis for the assessment of regional flood risk. These maps are derived by solving the 1D energy balance equation for river routing and 2D shallow water equation (SWE) for overland flow. The models are run with high performance computing and GPU based solvers as the time taken for simulation is large in such continental scale modeling. These results are validated with data from authorities and business partners, and have been used in the insurance industry for many years. While this methodology has been proven extremely effective in regions where the quality and availability of data are high, its application is very challenging in other regions where data are scarce. This is generally the case for low and middle income countries, where simpler approaches are needed for flood risk modeling and assessment. In this study we explore new methods to make use of modeling results obtained in data-rich contexts to improve predictive ability in data-scarce contexts. As an example, based on our modeled flood maps in data-rich countries, we identify statistical relationships between flood characteristics and topographic and climatic indicators, and test their generalization across physical domains. Moreover, we apply the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND)approach to estimate "probable" saturated areas for different return period flood events as functions of basin characteristics. This work falls into the well-established research field of Predictions in Ungauged Basins.

  19. Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters in Megacities: The Case of Floods in São Paulo, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Haddad, Eduardo; Teixeira, Eliane

    2013-01-01

    The city of São Paulo, home to 11 million people, suffers constantly the effects of flooding caused by extreme precipitation. Localized floods occur every summer in various parts of the city. Besides the losses and inconvenience felt by the residents, floods produce damages that cross the city boundaries, affecting income and output in the metropolitan area as well as in other parts of the state and the country. The objective of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of floods in the ...

  20. Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

    2014-01-01

    Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster ris...

  1. Flood risk assessment. Case of study: Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Novelo-Casanova

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to its geographical location, the community of Motozintla de Mendoza (Motozintla in the State of Chiapas, Mexico, is continuously exposed to the impact of natural hazards. In this work, we assessed the flood risk of Motozintla considering the structural, socioeconomic, organizational, and global (structural, socioeconomic, and organizational vulnerabilities. In addition, we also measured the local risk perception. Spatial maps were generated to determine the most vulnerable and risk areas of this community. Our results indicate that the population has a high level of risk to flooding mainly because (1 the majority of the local houses has high structural vulnerability; (2 a high percentage of the families has a daily income less than the official Mexican minimum wage and lacks of basic public services as well as of proper social security services; (3 most of the community does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan; and (4 the community organization for disaster mitigation and response is practically non-existent. For these reasons, we believe that it is necessary for local authorities to establish in the short-term, preparedness, mitigation and response plans as well as land-use measures to reduce the risk to floods in Motozintla.

  2. Development of method for evaluating estimated inundation area by using river flood analysis based on multiple flood scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, T.; Takahashi, T.

    2017-12-01

    Non-structural mitigation measures such as flood hazard map based on estimated inundation area have been more important because heavy rains exceeding the design rainfall frequently occur in recent years. However, conventional method may lead to an underestimation of the area because assumed locations of dike breach in river flood analysis are limited to the cases exceeding the high-water level. The objective of this study is to consider the uncertainty of estimated inundation area with difference of the location of dike breach in river flood analysis. This study proposed multiple flood scenarios which can set automatically multiple locations of dike breach in river flood analysis. The major premise of adopting this method is not to be able to predict the location of dike breach correctly. The proposed method utilized interval of dike breach which is distance of dike breaches placed next to each other. That is, multiple locations of dike breach were set every interval of dike breach. The 2D shallow water equations was adopted as the governing equation of river flood analysis, and the leap-frog scheme with staggered grid was used. The river flood analysis was verified by applying for the 2015 Kinugawa river flooding, and the proposed multiple flood scenarios was applied for the Akutagawa river in Takatsuki city. As the result of computation in the Akutagawa river, a comparison with each computed maximum inundation depth of dike breaches placed next to each other proved that the proposed method enabled to prevent underestimation of estimated inundation area. Further, the analyses on spatial distribution of inundation class and maximum inundation depth in each of the measurement points also proved that the optimum interval of dike breach which can evaluate the maximum inundation area using the minimum assumed locations of dike breach. In brief, this study found the optimum interval of dike breach in the Akutagawa river, which enabled estimated maximum inundation area

  3. Development of a Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) for the nuclear safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Daoued, Amine; Guimier, Laurent; Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Rebour, Vincent

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to lay the basis for a probabilistic evaluation of flood hazard (PFHA). Probabilistic assessment of external floods has become a current topic of interest to the nuclear scientific community. Probabilistic approaches complement deterministic approaches by exploring a set of scenarios and associating a probability to each of them. These approaches aim to identify all possible failure scenarios, combining their probability, in order to cover all possible sources of risk. They are based on the distributions of initiators and/or the variables caracterizing these initiators. The PFHA can characterize the water level for example at defined point of interest in the nuclear site. This probabilistic flood hazard characterization takes into account all the phenomena that can contribute to the flooding of the site. The main steps of the PFHA are: i) identification of flooding phenomena (rains, sea water level, etc.) and screening of relevant phenomena to the nuclear site, ii) identification and probabilization of parameters associated to selected flooding phenomena, iii) spreading of the probabilized parameters from the source to the point of interest in the site, v) obtaining hazard curves and aggregation of flooding phenomena contributions at the point of interest taking into account the uncertainties. Within this framework, the methodology of the PFHA has been developed for several flooding phenomena (rain and/or sea water level, etc.) and then implemented and tested with a simplified case study. In the same logic, our study is still in progress to take into account other flooding phenomena and to carry out more case studies.

  4. Climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchia, Aldo V.

    2008-01-01

    Devils Lake and Stump Lake in northeastern North Dakota receive surface runoff from a 3,810-square-mile drainage basin, and evaporation provides the only major water loss unless the lakes are above their natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River. In September 2007, flow from Devils Lake to Stump Lake had filled Stump Lake and the two lakes consisted of essentially one water body with an elevation of 1,447.1 feet, about 3 feet below the existing base flood elevation (1,450 feet) and about 12 feet below the natural outlet elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet).Devils Lake could continue to rise, causing extensive additional flood damages in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin. This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to evaluate future flood risk for Devils Lake and provide information for developing updated flood-insurance rate maps and planning flood-mitigation activities such as raising levees or roads.In about 1980, a large, abrupt, and highly significant increase in precipitation occurred in the Devils Lake Basin and elsewhere in the Northern Great Plains, and wetter-than-normal conditions have persisted through the present (2007). Although future precipitation is impossible to predict, paleoclimatic evidence and recent research on climate dynamics indicate the current wet conditions are not likely to end anytime soon. For example, there is about a 72-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 10 more years and about a 37-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 30 more years.A stochastic simulation model for Devils Lake and Stump Lake developed in a previous study was updated and used to generate 10,000 potential future realizations, or traces, of precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and lake levels given existing conditions on September 30, 2007, and randomly

  5. The Emergence of Flood Insurance in Canada: Navigating Institutional Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thistlethwaite, Jason

    2017-04-01

    Flood insurance has remained unavailable in Canada based on an assessment that it lacks economic viability. In response to Canada's costliest flood event to date in 2013, the Canadian insurance industry has started to develop a framework to expand existing property insurance to cover flood damage. Research on flood insurance has overlooked why and how insurance systems transition to expand insurance coverage without evidence of economic viability. This article will address this gap through a case study on the emergence of flood insurance in Canada, and the approach to its expansion. Between 2013 and 2016, insurance industry officials representing over 60% of premiums collected in Canada were interviewed. These interviews revealed that flood insurance is being expanded in response to institutional pressure, specifically external stakeholder expectations that the insurance industry will adopt a stronger role in managing flood risk through coverage of flood damage. Further evidence of this finding is explored by assessing the emergence of a unique flood insurance model that involves a risk-adjusted and optional product along with an expansion of government policy supporting flood risk mitigation. This approach attempts to balance industry concerns about economic viability with institutional pressure to reduce flood risk through insurance. This analysis builds on existing research by providing the first scholarly analysis of flood insurance in Canada, important "empirical" teeth to existing conceptual analysis on the availability of flood insurance, and the influence of institutional factors on risk analysis within the insurance sector. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods are common in the United States. Weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, hurricanes, or tsunamis can ... is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often have a dangerous ...

  7. Development of Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping For Flooding Induced by Dam Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, C.; Yeh, J. J. J.

    2017-12-01

    A primary function of flood inundation mapping is to forecast flood hazards and assess potential losses. However, uncertainties limit the reliability of inundation hazard assessments. Major sources of uncertainty should be taken into consideration by an optimal flood management strategy. This study focuses on the 20km reach downstream of the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. A dam failure induced flood herein provides the upstream boundary conditions of flood routing. The two major sources of uncertainty that are considered in the hydraulic model and the flood inundation mapping herein are uncertainties in the dam break model and uncertainty of the roughness coefficient. The perturbance moment method is applied to a dam break model and the hydro system model to develop probabilistic flood inundation mapping. Various numbers of uncertain variables can be considered in these models and the variability of outputs can be quantified. The probabilistic flood inundation mapping for dam break induced floods can be developed with consideration of the variability of output using a commonly used HEC-RAS model. Different probabilistic flood inundation mappings are discussed and compared. Probabilistic flood inundation mappings are hoped to provide new physical insights in support of the evaluation of concerning reservoir flooded areas.

  8. 76 FR 44985 - Pipeline Safety: Potential for Damage to Pipeline Facilities Caused by Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-27

    .... PHMSA-2011-0177] Pipeline Safety: Potential for Damage to Pipeline Facilities Caused by Flooding AGENCY... liquid pipelines to communicate the potential for damage to pipeline facilities caused by severe flooding... pipelines in case of flooding. ADDRESSES: This document can be viewed on the Office of Pipeline Safety home...

  9. Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

    2018-07-15

    The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Thermo-hydrodynamical modelling of a flooded deep mine reservoir - Case of the Lorraine Coal Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reichart, Guillaume

    2015-01-01

    Since 2006, cessation of dewatering in Lorraine Coal Basin (France) led to the flooding of abandoned mines, resulting in a new hydrodynamic balance in the area. Recent researches concerning geothermal exploitation of flooded reservoirs raised new questions, which we propose to answer. Our work aimed to understand the thermos-hydrodynamic behaviour of mine water in a flooding or flooded system. Firstly, we synthesized the geographical, geological and hydrogeological contexts of the Lorraine Coal Basin, and we chose a specific area for our studies. Secondly, temperature and electric conductivity log profiles were measured in old pits of the Lorraine Coal Basin, giving a better understanding of the water behaviour at a deep mine shaft scale. We were able to build a thermos-hydrodynamic model and simulate water behaviour at this scale. Flow regime stability is also studied. Thirdly, a hydrodynamic spatialized meshed model was realized to study the hydrodynamic behaviour of a mine reservoir as a whole. Observed water-table rise was correctly reproduced: moreover, the model can be used in a predictive way after the flooding. Several tools were tested, improved or developed to ease the study of flooded reservoirs, as three-dimensional up-scaling of hydraulic conductivities and a coupled spatialized meshed model with a pipe network. (author) [fr

  11. Assessment on the pedestrian risk during floods based on numerical simulation - A case study in Jinan City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, T.; Xu, Z.; Hong, S.

    2017-12-01

    Flood disasters frequently attack the urban area in Jinan City during past years, and the city is faced with severe road flooding which greatly threaten pedestrians' safety. Therefore, it is of great significance to investigate the pedestrian risk during floods under specific topographic condition. In this study, a model coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic processes is developed in the study area to simulate the flood routing process on the road for the "7.18" rainstorm and validated with post-disaster damage survey information. The risk of pedestrian is estimated with a flood risk assessment model. The result shows that the coupled model performs well in the rainstorm flood process. On the basis of the simulation result, the areas with extreme risk, medium risk, and mild risk are identified, respectively. Regions with high risk are generally located near the mountain front area with steep slopes. This study will provide scientific support for the flood control and disaster reduction in Jinan City.

  12. Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; Van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

    2017-01-01

    The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. In this paper we present and evaluate a method to create deterministic and probabilistic flood maps from

  13. Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; Van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

    2017-01-01

    The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, creates a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. This research focussed on creating flood maps using user generated content from Twitter. Twitter data has

  14. ASN guide project. Protection of base nuclear installations against external flooding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This guide aims at defining criteria to be taken into account to assess risks of flooding of a nuclear installation in case of external flooding, at proposing an acceptable method to assess such risks, at listing recommendations to define protection means adapted to the peculiarities of the flood risk and implemented by the operators with respect to the life phases of the installation, and in taking the climate change into account. The first part proposes an approach allowing the identification of reference situations which are to be taken into account for the flood risk. The second part deals with the quantification of parameters which characterize physical phenomena associated with these situations. The third part identifies the peculiarities of the flood risk as well as the guiding principles for designing options and protection mean selection with respect to a given flood risk

  15. Risk-based planning and optimization of flood management measures in developing countries : Case Pakistan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tariq, M.A.U.R.

    2011-01-01

    About 95-97% of all deaths and a significant part of the economic losses caused by floods occur in developing countries. Despite the resources spent on different measures, flood management arrangements in developing countries are still unable to deliver satisfactory results. The objective of this

  16. THE SEPTEMBER 2013 RAIN AND FLOOD EVENTS IN THE FLAM’S VALLEY BASIN. CAUSES, CHARACTERISTICS AND THEIR IMPACT UPON THE ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BORCAN MIHAELA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Between 11.09 and 14.09 2013 the north-eastern part of Tulcea County, especially the areas located around Somova village was affected by heavy, torrential rainfall that totalized over 30 mm/sq m and triggered dangerous hydrological phenomena (important slope, stream and river flows. As a result of these heavy downpours, Flam’s Valley was affected by an exceptional flash-flood which measured a peak discharge that reached a 1% exceeding probability. Another destructive characteristic of the weather phenomena that occurred in September 2013 was that the heavy rain was accompanied by violent gusty winds that resembled tornado-like features, bringing serious threat to houses, households and roads. In this paper we have analyzed the weather features that produced the September 2013 flash flood from both a spatial and a temporal perspective. The hydrological analysis focuses on the peak discharge that was recorded during the flash flood as well as on the characteristics elements of the topographic profiles. The paper ends with a brief presentation of the consequences that the weather and hydrological phenomena had upon the environment and population as well.

  17. Risk-based flood protection planning under climate change and modeling uncertainty: a pre-alpine case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Dittes

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Planning authorities are faced with a range of questions when planning flood protection measures: is the existing protection adequate for current and future demands or should it be extended? How will flood patterns change in the future? How should the uncertainty pertaining to this influence the planning decision, e.g., for delaying planning or including a safety margin? Is it sufficient to follow a protection criterion (e.g., to protect from the 100-year flood or should the planning be conducted in a risk-based way? How important is it for flood protection planning to accurately estimate flood frequency (changes, costs and damage? These are questions that we address for a medium-sized pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany, using a sequential Bayesian decision making framework that quantitatively addresses the full spectrum of uncertainty. We evaluate different flood protection systems considered by local agencies in a test study catchment. Despite large uncertainties in damage, cost and climate, the recommendation is robust for the most conservative approach. This demonstrates the feasibility of making robust decisions under large uncertainty. Furthermore, by comparison to a previous study, it highlights the benefits of risk-based planning over the planning of flood protection to a prescribed return period.

  18. Risk-based flood protection planning under climate change and modeling uncertainty: a pre-alpine case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittes, Beatrice; Kaiser, Maria; Špačková, Olga; Rieger, Wolfgang; Disse, Markus; Straub, Daniel

    2018-05-01

    Planning authorities are faced with a range of questions when planning flood protection measures: is the existing protection adequate for current and future demands or should it be extended? How will flood patterns change in the future? How should the uncertainty pertaining to this influence the planning decision, e.g., for delaying planning or including a safety margin? Is it sufficient to follow a protection criterion (e.g., to protect from the 100-year flood) or should the planning be conducted in a risk-based way? How important is it for flood protection planning to accurately estimate flood frequency (changes), costs and damage? These are questions that we address for a medium-sized pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany, using a sequential Bayesian decision making framework that quantitatively addresses the full spectrum of uncertainty. We evaluate different flood protection systems considered by local agencies in a test study catchment. Despite large uncertainties in damage, cost and climate, the recommendation is robust for the most conservative approach. This demonstrates the feasibility of making robust decisions under large uncertainty. Furthermore, by comparison to a previous study, it highlights the benefits of risk-based planning over the planning of flood protection to a prescribed return period.

  19. Dendroclimate evidence for extreme hydrologic events over the late Holocene in the Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, J. K.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Pederson, N.; Donnelly, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme hydrologic events pose a present and future threat to cities and infrastructure in the densely populated coastal corridor of the northeastern United States (NE). An understanding of the potential range and return interval of storms, floods, and droughts is important for improving coastal management and hazard planning, as well as the detection and attribution of trends in regional climate phenomena. Here, we examine a suite of evidence for Common Era paleohydroclimate extreme events in the NE. Our study analyzes a network of hydroclimate sensitive trees, subfossil 'drowned' forests and co-located sediment records, using both classical and isotope dendrochronology, radiocarbon analyses, and sediment stratigraphy. Atlantic White cedar (AWC) forests grow along the NE coast and are exposed to severe coastal weather, as they are typically most successful in near-shore, glacially formed depressions. Many coastal AWC sites are ombrotrophic and contain a precipitation or drought signal in their ring widths. Sub-fossil AWC forests are found where near-shore swamps were drowned and exposed to the ocean. Additionally, the rings of coastal AWC may contain the geochemical signature of landfalling tropical cyclones, which bring with them a large influx of precipitation with distinct oxygen isotopes, which can be used to identify these large storms. Dendrochronology, radiocarbon dating, and analysis of sediment cores are used here to identify and date the occurrence of large overwash events along the coastline of the northeastern United States associated with extreme storms.

  20. Flood Label for buildings : a tool for more flood-resilient cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, T.; Scheibel, Marc

    2016-01-01

    River floods are among the most expensive natural disasters in Europe. Traditional flood protection methods are not sufficient anymore. It is widely acknowledged in the scholarly debate and in practice of flood risk management that traditional flood protection measures such as dikes need to be

  1. The 16 May 2005 Flood in Yosemite National Park--A Glimpse into High-Country Flood Generation in the Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.; Lundquist, J.; Cayan, D.; Meyer, J.

    2006-12-01

    On 16 May 2005, a Pacific storm drew warm, wet subtropical air into the Sierra Nevada, causing moderate rains and major flooding. The flood raised Hetch Hetchy and Tenaya Lake levels markedly and inundated large parts of Yosemite Valley, requiring evacuations and raising public-safety concerns in Yosemite National Park. This was the first major flood to be recorded by the high-country hydroclimatic network in the Park. Since 2001, scientists from US Geological Survey, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, California Department of Water Resources, National Park Service, and other institutions have developed the network of over 30 streamflow and 50 air-temperature loggers at altitudes ranging from 3000 m above sea level, and 8 snow-instrumentation sites measuring snow-water contents, snow depths, radiation, soil moisture, and temperatures in air, snow, and soil. The network documented flooding that derived its runoff mostly from high-altitude rainfall on soils already wet due to the onset of snowmelt a few days earlier. Air temperatures during the storm were above freezing up to altitudes of nearly 3000 m, so that rain fell to as high as 3000 m, compared with normal winter snowlines nearer 1500 m. Streams flooded below 3000 m, and above that altitude did not flood or contribute much to the flooding below. Meanwhile, no significant snow-water content changes were measured. Thus this flood resulted from rain-through-snow runoff rather than rain-on-snow melting. In the Park as a whole, about five times more catchment area received rain, rather than snow, during this storm than during typical cool winter storms. Because the flood was more a result of the large area that received rainfall than of melting snow, snowpack reductions that are expected if recent warming trends continue would not have reduced the flood. Instead, the opportunity for warm storms may increase if warming continues, in which case the potential for this kind of flooding will increase.

  2. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Alfieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

  3. Urban flash flood vulnerability : spatial assessment and adaptation : a case study in Istanbul, Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reyes-Acevedo, Martin Alejandro; Flacke, J.; Brussel, M.J.G.

    2011-01-01

    The Ayamama River basin in Istanbul is a densely populated urban area that is frequently impacted by flash floods causing damage to people and infrastructure. The IPCC expects that under climate change conditions, more intense precipitation will occur, leading to a higher risk of flash floods.

  4. Soil structural behaviour of flooded soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taboada, M.A.

    2004-01-01

    The objectives of this presentation are to: identify factors determining of the structural behaviour of flooded soils, as compared to those acting in upland soils; analyse the influence of reductive processes on aggregate stabilising agents; discuss mechanisms of structural deterioration and recovery during the flooding-drying cycle, on the basis of a case study: cattle trampling effects in the flooding Pampa of Argentina. Flooded soils, now known as Hydric soils, are characteristic of wetlands and irrigated fields cropped to rice (paddy soils). In them, water covers the soil, or is present either at or near the surface of the soil all year or for varying periods of time during the year. Hydric soils belong to different taxa of the FAO-UNESCO Soil Map (2000). Fluvisols, Planosols and Gleysols are widespread distributed in the globe. The generation of redoximorphic features is due to different causes in each of them. Fluvisols are covered part of the year by surface water from river overflows; Planosols are soils having an impervious Bt horizon, supporting perched water during short periods; and Gleysols are soils affected by stagnant water tables during long periods

  5. A study case of Baranca drainage basin flash-floods using the hydrological model of Hec-Ras

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aritina HALIUC

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, the floods which occurred within Romanian territory stand as proof for the increased frequency of the extreme hydrological hazards which have negative effects on the normal pathway of the human-beings activities. The technological progress among with the increased frequency of floods events are the base for the development of informational programs for the analysis, simulation and flood management. The Baranca brook which drains a considerable part of Zamostea village (Romania was used as a pilot drainage basin for the flash-flood simulation using the Hec-Ras program and the Arcgis extension, HecGeo-Ras. The flash-floods that occurred in the summer of 2010 were used to validate the results of the simulation. Between 28.06.2010 – 29.06.2010, two flash-floods occurred in the Baranca drainage basin with a discharge oscillated between 10m3 and 70m3, a water extent which covered an area of 5.14 km2 and a depth ranging between 0.3-3m. The programs are capable to simulate the water flow and to investigate the floodway encroachments in the study area. The damages evaluated in the field along with the program’s results reveal the fact that more than half of the built-up areas of Zamostea village are established along brooks, within the floodplain area. What is more, after the 2010 floods, the expension of the habitable area was not detained by the water danger, many houses are still built on the floodplain. The programs used, taking an acceptable margin of error, may be integrated into any flood management strategy or in any watershed plan and may provide the necessary support for mitigating the risks associated with floods

  6. Snow Cover Monitoring Using MODIS Data in Liaoning Province, Northeastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Lu

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of snow cover monitoring studies in Liaoning Province, northeastern China, using MODIS data. Snow cover plays an important role in both the regional water balance and soil moisture properties during the early spring in northeastern China. In addition, heavy snowfalls commonly trigger hazards such as flooding, caused by rapid snow melt, or crop failure, resulting from fluctuations in soil temperature associated with changes in the snow cover. The latter is a function of both regional, or global, climatic changes, as well as fluctuations in the albedo resulting from variations in the Snow Covered Area (SCA. These impacts are crucial to human activities, especially to those living in middle-latitude areas such as Liaoning Province. Thus, SCA monitoring is currently an important tool in studies of global climate change, particularly because satellite remote sensing data provide timely and efficient snow cover information for large areas. In this study, MODIS L1B data, MODIS Daily Snow Products (MOD10A1 and MODIS 8-day Snow Products (MOD10A2 were used to monitor the SCA of Liaoning Province over the winter months of November–April, 2006–2008. The effects of cloud masking and forest masking on the snow monitoring results were also assessed. The results show that the SCA percentage derived from MODIS L1B data is relatively consistent, but slightly higher than that obtained from MODIS Snow Products. In situ data from 25 snow stations were used to assess the accuracy of snow cover monitoring from the SCA compared to the results from MODIS Snow Products. The studies found that the SCA results were more reliable than MODIS Snow Products in the study area.

  7. Financing increasing flood risk: evidence from millions of buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongman, B.; Koks, E. E.; Husby, T. G.; Ward, P. J.

    2014-01-01

    The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on the accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on the ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information can contribute to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case-study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood prone areas has been higher than in not flood prone areas. We also find that property values in flood prone areas are lower than those in not flood prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing.

  8. Risk-informed local action planning against flooding: lessons learnt and way forward for a case study in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Castillo-Rodríguez J.T.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available After 29 years of the largest flood event in modern times (with the highest recorded rainfall rate at the Iberian Peninsula with 817 mm in 24 hours, the municipality of Oliva faces the challenge of mitigating flood risk through the development and implementation of a local action plan, in line with other existent and ongoing structural measures for flood risk reduction. Located 65 km from Valencia, on the South-Eastern coast of Spain, Oliva is affected by pluvial, river and coastal flooding and it is characterized by a complex and wide-ranging geography and high seasonal variation in population. A quantitative flood risk analysis has been performed to support the definition of flood risk management strategies. This paper shows how hazard, exposure and vulnerability analyses provide valuable information for the development of a local action plan against flooding, for example by identifying areas with highest societal and economic risk levels. It is concluded that flood risk management actions, such as flood warning and monitoring or evacuation, should not be applied homogenously at local scale, but instead actions should be adapted based on spatial clustering. Implications about the impact of education and training on flood risk reduction are also addressed and discusse

  9. Flood monitoring and damage assessment using water indices: A case study of Pakistan flood-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhtar Ali Memon

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI of McFeeters (1996, Water Index (WI introduced by Rogers and Kearney (2004, referred to as Red and Short Wave Infra-Red (RSWIR and WI suggested as the best by Ji et al. (2009, referred to as Green and Short Wave Infra-Red (GSWIR for delineating and mapping of surface water using MODIS (Terra near real time images during 2012 floods in Pakistan. The results from above indices have been compared with Landsat ETM+ classified images aiming to assess the accuracy of the indices. Accuracy assessment has been performed using spatial statistical techniques and found NDWI, RSWIR and GSWIR with kappa coefficient (κ of 46.66%, 70.80% and 60.61% respectively. It has been observed using statistical analysis and visual interpretation (expert knowledge gained by past experience that the NDWI and GSWIR have tendencies to underestimate and overestimate respectively the inundated area. Keeping in view the above facts, RSWIR has proved to be the best of the three indices. In addition, assessment of the damages has been carried out considering accumulated flood extent obtained from RSWIR. The information derived proved to be essential and valuable for disaster management plan and rehabilitation.

  10. Multiple Scedosporium apiospermum abscesses in a woman survivor of a tsunami in northeastern Japan: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakamura Yutaka

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Scedosporium apiospermum is increasingly recognized as a cause of localized and disseminated mycotic infections in near-drowning victims. Case presentation We report the case of a 59-year-old Japanese woman who was a survivor of a tsunami in northeastern Japan and who had lung and brain abscesses caused by S. apiospermum. Initially, an aspergillus infection was suspected, so she was treated with micafungin. However, computed tomography scans of her chest revealed lung abscesses, and magnetic resonance images demonstrated multiple abscesses in her brain. S. apiospermum was cultured from her bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, and antimycotic therapy with voriconazole was initiated. Since she developed an increase in the frequency of premature ventricular contractions, an adverse drug reaction to the voriconazole was suspected. She was started on a treatment of a combination of low-dose voriconazole and liposomal amphotericin B. After combination therapy, further computed tomography scans of the chest and magnetic resonance images of her brain showed a demarcation of abscesses. Conclusions Voriconazole appeared to have a successful record in treating scedosporiosis after a near drowning but, owing to several adverse effects, may possibly not be recommended. Thus, a combination treatment of low-dose voriconazole and liposomal amphotericin B may be a safe and effective treatment for an S. apiospermum infection. Even though a diagnosis of scedosporiosis may be difficult, a fast and correct etiological diagnosis could improve the patient's chance of recovery in any case.

  11. Flooding in imagination vs flooding in vivo: A comparison with agoraphobics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emmelkamp, Paul M.G.; Wessels, Hemmy

    In this investigation of agoraphobic patients, 3 different flooding procedures were compared: (1) prolonged exposure in vivo, (2) flooding in the imagination by a ‘live’ therapist and (3) a combination of flooding in the imagination and flooding in vivo. After an intermediate-test all clients were

  12. The use of Natural Flood Management to mitigate local flooding in the rural landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Mark; Quinn, Paul; Ghimire, Sohan; Nicholson, Alex; Addy, Steve

    2014-05-01

    The past decade has seen increases in the occurrence of flood events across Europe, putting a growing number of settlements of varying sizes at risk. The issue of flooding in smaller villages is usually not well publicised. In these small communities, the cost of constructing and maintaining traditional flood defences often outweigh the potential benefits, which has led to a growing quest for more cost effective and sustainable approaches. Here we aim to provide such an approach that alongside flood risk reduction, also has multipurpose benefits of sediment control, water quality amelioration, and habitat creation. Natural flood management (NFM) aims to reduce flooding by working with natural features and characteristics to slow down or temporarily store flood waters. NFM measures include dynamic water storage ponds and wetlands, interception bunds, channel restoration and instream wood placement, and increasing soil infiltration through soil management and tree planting. Based on integrated monitoring and modelling studies, we demonstrate the potential to manage runoff locally using NFM in rural systems by effectively managing flow pathways (hill slopes and small channels) and by exploiting floodplains and buffers strips. Case studies from across the UK show that temporary storage ponds (ranging from 300 to 3000m3) and other NFM measures can reduce peak flows in small catchments (5 to 10 km2) by up to 15 to 30 percent. In addition, increasing the overall effective storage capacity by a network of NFM measures was found to be most effective for total reduction of local flood peaks. Hydraulic modelling has shown that the positioning of such features within the catchment, and how they are connected to the main channel, may also affect their effectiveness. Field evidence has shown that these ponds can collect significant accumulations of fine sediment during flood events. On the other hand, measures such as wetlands could also play an important role during low flow

  13. Flooding and Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

    2011-01-01

    According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

  14. Effect of Urban Green Spaces and Flooded Area Type on Flooding Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyomin Kim

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Countermeasures to urban flooding should consider long-term perspectives, because climate change impacts are unpredictable and complex. Urban green spaces have emerged as a potential option to reduce urban flood risks, and their effectiveness has been highlighted in notable urban water management studies. In this study, flooded areas in Seoul, Korea, were divided into four flooded area types by cluster analysis based on topographic and physical characteristics and verified using discriminant analysis. After division by flooded area type, logistic regression analysis was performed to determine how the flooding probability changes with variations in green space area. Type 1 included regions where flooding occurred in a drainage basin that had a flood risk management infrastructure (FRMI. In Type 2, the slope was steep; the TWI (Topographic Wetness Index was relatively low; and soil drainage was favorable. Type 3 represented the gentlest sloping areas, and these were associated with the highest TWI values. In addition, these areas had the worst soil drainage. Type 4 had moderate slopes, imperfect soil drainage and lower than average TWI values. We found that green spaces exerted a considerable influence on urban flooding probabilities in Seoul, and flooding probabilities could be reduced by over 50% depending on the green space area and the locations where green spaces were introduced. Increasing the area of green spaces was the most effective method of decreasing flooding probability in Type 3 areas. In Type 2 areas, the maximum hourly precipitation affected the flooding probability significantly, and the flooding probability in these areas was high despite the extensive green space area. These findings can contribute towards establishing guidelines for urban spatial planning to respond to urban flooding.

  15. Data assimilation of citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayama, T.; Takara, K. T.

    2017-12-01

    Many studies in data assimilation in hydrology have focused on the integration of satellite remote sensing and in-situ monitoring data into hydrologic or land surface models. For flood predictions also, recent studies have demonstrated to assimilate remotely sensed inundation information with flood inundation models. In actual flood disaster situations, citizen collected information including local reports by residents and rescue teams and more recently tweets via social media also contain valuable information. The main interest of this study is how to effectively use such citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping. Here we propose a new data assimilation technique based on pre-conducted ensemble inundation simulations and update inundation depth distributions sequentially when local data becomes available. The propose method is composed by the following two-steps. The first step is based on weighting average of preliminary ensemble simulations, whose weights are updated by Bayesian approach. The second step is based on an optimal interpolation, where the covariance matrix is calculated from the ensemble simulations. The proposed method was applied to case studies including an actual flood event occurred. It considers two situations with more idealized one by assuming continuous flood inundation depth information is available at multiple locations. The other one, which is more realistic case during such a severe flood disaster, assumes uncertain and non-continuous information is available to be assimilated. The results show that, in the first idealized situation, the large scale inundation during the flooding was estimated reasonably with RMSE effective. Nevertheless, the applications of the proposed data assimilation method demonstrated a high potential of this method for assimilating citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping in the future.

  16. Coastal flooding in Denmark – future outlook

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, C.; Knudsen, P.; Andersen, O. B.

    2014-01-01

    Water loading from all directions due to river discharge, precipitation, groundwater and the sea state (i.e. mean and extreme water levels) need to be carefully considered when dealing with flooding hazards at the coast. Flooding hazard and risk mapping are major topics in low-lying coastal are- ...... this knowledge together to enable a practice-oriented methodology that combines their effects and future sea extremes in hazard and risk mapping and climate change adaptation schemes in Denmark......- as before even considering the adverse effects of climate change and sea level rise (SLR). From an assessment of Danish sea extremes from historical evidence, tide gauge series, and space measurements, we discuss the current and future hazards, exposure, and vulnerability to flooding along the diverse......, land-use, protection measures a.o. that must be taken into account in order to evaluate current and future flooding hazards and management options. We provide examples from Danish case-studies underlining the necessity of including these factors and we outline an interdisciplinary approach to bring...

  17. Flood risk and cultural heritage: the case study of Florence (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Castelli, Fabio; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Mazzanti, Bernardo

    2016-04-01

    Cultural heritage plays a key role for communities in terms of both identity and economic value. It is often under serious threat by natural hazards, nevertheless, quantitative assessments of risk are quite uncommon. This work addresses the flood risk assessment to cultural heritage in an exemplary art city, which is Florence, Italy. The risk assessment method here adopted borrows the most common definition of flood risk as the product of hazard, vulnerability and exposure, with some necessary adjustments. The risk estimation is carried out at the building scale for the whole UNESCO site, which coincides with the historical centre of the city. A distinction in macro- and micro-damage categories has been made according to the vulnerability of the objects at risk. Two damage macro-categories are selected namely cultural buildings and contents. Cultural buildings are classified in damage micro-categories as churches/religious complexes, libraries/archives and museums. The damages to the contents are estimated for four micro-categories: paintings, sculptures, books/prints and goldsmith's art. Data from hydraulic simulations for different recurrence scenarios, historical reports of the devastating 1966 flood and the cultural heritage recognition sheets allow estimating and mapping the annual expected number of works of art lost in absence of risk mitigation strategies.

  18. A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

    2018-02-01

    Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

  19. Land cover change impact on urban flood modeling (case study: Upper Citarum watershed)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-03-01

    The upper Citarum River watershed utilizes remote sensing technology in Geographic Information System to provide information on land coverage by interpretation of objects in the image. Rivers that pass through urban areas will cause flooding problems causing disadvantages, and it disrupts community activities in the urban area. Increased development in a city is related to an increase in the number of population growth that added by increasing quality and quantity of life necessities. Improved urban lifestyle changes have an impact on land cover. The impact in over time will be difficult to control. This study aims to analyze the condition of flooding in urban areas caused by upper Citarum watershed land-use change in 2001 with the land cover change in 2010. This modeling analyzes with the help of HEC-RAS to describe flooded inundation urban areas. Land cover change in upper Citarum watershed is not very significant; it based on the results of data processing of land cover has the difference of area that changed is not enormous. Land cover changes for the floods increased dramatically to a flow coefficient for 2001 is 0.65 and in 2010 at 0.69. In 2001, the inundation area about 105,468 hectares and it were about 92,289 hectares in 2010.

  20. On the reliable use of satellite-derived surface water products for global flood monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirpa, F. A.; Revilla-Romero, B.; Thielen, J.; Salamon, P.; Brakenridge, R.; Pappenberger, F.; de Groeve, T.

    2015-12-01

    Early flood warning and real-time monitoring systems play a key role in flood risk reduction and disaster response management. To this end, real-time flood forecasting and satellite-based detection systems have been developed at global scale. However, due to the limited availability of up-to-date ground observations, the reliability of these systems for real-time applications have not been assessed in large parts of the globe. In this study, we performed comparative evaluations of the commonly used satellite-based global flood detections and operational flood forecasting system using 10 major flood cases reported over three years (2012-2014). Specially, we assessed the flood detection capabilities of the near real-time global flood maps from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS), and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the operational forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) for the major flood events recorded in global flood databases. We present the evaluation results of the global flood detection and forecasting systems in terms of correctly indicating the reported flood events and highlight the exiting limitations of each system. Finally, we propose possible ways forward to improve the reliability of large scale flood monitoring tools.

  1. Seismic activity in northeastern Brazill-new perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, J. M.; Do Nascimento, A. F.; Vilar, C. S.; Bezerra, F. H.; Assumpcao, M.; Berrocal, J.; Fuck, R. A.

    2007-05-01

    Northeastern Brazil is the most seismic active region in the country. Some earthquakes with magnitude above 5.0 and intensity VII MM associated with swam-like seismic activity lasting for many years are a serious social concern. Since the 1980's macroseismic and instrumental surveys have been carried out in this region and they are an important data archive which allows the composition of a reliable catalogue of seismic activity for this region. Among the many scientific results it was possible to identify the main seismogenic areas, obtain reliable hypocentres and focal mechanisms. As a consequence, it was possible also to analyse the relationship between seismicity and geological features. It was also possible to determined maximum horizontal stress direction for the region. An important induced seismic activity case has also been reported in the area as being a classical example of pore pressure diffusion triggering mechanism. The majority of the results were obtained using analogic data. Recently, a new research project is being conducted and will allow us to provide a regional scale monitoring with 6 broad-band stations and a new portable six station digital seismic network equipped with short- period sensors. Thus, with the continuous seismic activity in the area we trust that the results of this project will increase the present knowledge of seismic activity in northeastern Brazil.

  2. Spatiotemporal hazard mapping of a flood event "migration" in a transboundary river basin as an operational tool in flood risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrou, Theodora; Papastergios, Asterios; Parcharidis, Issaak; Chini, Marco

    2017-10-01

    Flood disaster is one of the heaviest disasters in the world. It is necessary to monitor and evaluate the flood disaster in order to mitigate the consequences. As floods do not recognize borders, transboundary flood risk management is imperative in shared river basins. Disaster management is highly dependent on early information and requires data from the whole river basin. Based on the hypothesis that the flood events over the same area with same magnitude have almost identical evolution, it is crucial to develop a repository database of historical flood events. This tool, in the case of extended transboundary river basins, could constitute an operational warning system for the downstream area. The utility of SAR images for flood mapping, was demonstrated by previous studies but the SAR systems in orbit were not characterized by high operational capacity. Copernicus system will fill this gap in operational service for risk management, especially during emergency phase. The operational capabilities have been significantly improved by newly available satellite constellation, such as the Sentinel-1A AB mission, which is able to provide systematic acquisitions with a very high temporal resolution in a wide swath coverage. The present study deals with the monitoring of a transboundary flood event in Evros basin. The objective of the study is to create the "migration story" of the flooded areas on the basis of the evolution in time for the event occurred from October 2014 till May 2015. Flood hazard maps will be created, using SAR-based semi-automatic algorithms and then through the synthesis of the related maps in a GIS-system, a spatiotemporal thematic map of the event will be produced. The thematic map combined with TanDEM-X DEM, 12m/pixel spatial resolution, will define the non- affected areas which is a very useful information for the emergency planning and emergency response phases. The Sentinels meet the main requirements to be an effective and suitable

  3. Combining geomorphic and documentary flood evidence to reconstruct extreme events in Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndycraft, V. R.; Benito, G.; Barriendos, M.; Rico, M.; Sánchez-Moya, Y.; Sopeña, A.; Casas, A.

    2009-09-01

    Palaeoflood hydrology is the reconstruction of flood magnitude and frequency using geomorphological flood evidence and is particularly valuable for extending the record of extreme floods prior to the availability of instrumental data series. This paper will provide a review of recent developments in palaeoflood hydrology and will be presented in three parts: 1) an overview of the key methodological approaches used in palaeoflood hydrology and the use of historical documentary evidence for reconstructing extreme events; 2) a summary of the Llobregat River palaeoflood case study (Catalonia, NE Spain); and 3) analysis of the AD 1617 flood and its impacts across Catalonia (including the rivers Llobregat, Ter and Segre). The key findings of the Llobregat case study were that at least eight floods occurred with discharges significantly larger than events recorded in the instrumental record, for example at the Pont de Vilomara study reach the palaeodischarges of these events were 3700-4300 m3/s compared to the 1971 flood, the largest on record, of 2300 m3/s. Five of these floods were dated to the last 3000 years and the three events directly dated by radiocarbon all occurred during cold phases of global climate. Comparison of the palaeoflood record with documentary evidence indicated that one flood, radiocarbon dated to cal. AD 1540-1670, was likely to be the AD 1617 event, the largest flood of the last 700 years. Historical records indicate that this event was caused by rainfall occurring from the 2nd to 6th November and the resultant flooding caused widespread socio-economic impacts including the destruction of at least 389 houses, 22 bridges and 17 water mills. Discharges estimated from palaeoflood records and historical flood marks indicate that the Llobregat (4680 m3/s) and Ter (2700-4500 m3/s) rivers witnessed extreme discharges in comparison to observed floods in the instrumental record (2300 and 2350 m3/s, respectively); whilst further east in the Segre River

  4. Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

    2008-01-01

    Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

  5. Recommendations for the user-specific enhancement of flood maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Meyer

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The European Union Floods Directive requires the establishment of flood maps for high risk areas in all European member states by 2013. However, the current practice of flood mapping in Europe still shows some deficits. Firstly, flood maps are frequently seen as an information tool rather than a communication tool. This means that, for example, local stocks of knowledge are not incorporated. Secondly, the contents of flood maps often do not match the requirements of the end-users. Finally, flood maps are often designed and visualised in a way that cannot be easily understood by residents at risk and/or that is not suitable for the respective needs of public authorities in risk and event management. The RISK MAP project examined how end-user participation in the mapping process may be used to overcome these barriers and enhance the communicative power of flood maps, fundamentally increasing their effectiveness.

    Based on empirical findings from a participatory approach that incorporated interviews, workshops and eye-tracking tests, conducted in five European case studies, this paper outlines recommendations for user-specific enhancements of flood maps. More specific, recommendations are given with regard to (1 appropriate stakeholder participation processes, which allow incorporating local knowledge and preferences, (2 the improvement of the contents of flood maps by considering user-specific needs and (3 the improvement of the visualisation of risk maps in order to produce user-friendly and understandable risk maps for the user groups concerned. Furthermore, "idealised" maps for different user groups are presented: for strategic planning, emergency management and the public.

  6. Risk of flooding: Activities, parameters and regional peculiarities, Case study: Varbitsa watershed basin, Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lubenov Todor

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available An overview of the activities overtaken during risk of flooding situations, in one of the more often flooding region - the watershed of Varbitsa river (Southeastern part of Bulgaria - has been performed. The main cognitive parameters for risk perception and risk definition, depending on regional, social and historical factors have been examined. The existing information and instructions for mass media communication in relation to the process of interaction in a disaster situation have been discussed. In connection to determination of the risky segments in the basin and plans for announcement, the prevention communication measures have been outlined. On the basis of the Bulgarian normative legislation, the activities concerning organization of communications in a risk-of-disaster situation and mutual aid between authorities, which are part of the Integrated Help System have been indicated. It has been accented on the necessity of a more effective realization of the action plans during natural disasters and especially flooding, in order to improve the partnership between authorities and participants in the communication process during risk-of-flooding situations.

  7. Prescriptions for adaptive comanagement: the case of flood management in the German Rhine basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gert Becker

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Centrally administered bureaucracies are ill suited to managing the environmental resources of complex social-ecological systems. Therefore management approaches are required that can better deal with its complexity and uncertainty, which are further exacerbated by developments such as climate change. Adaptive comanagement (ACM has emerged as a relatively novel governance approach and potential solution to the challenges arising. Adaptive comanagement hinges on certain institutional prescriptions intended to enhance the adaptability of management by improving the comprehension of and response to the complex context and surprises of social-ecological systems. The ACM literature describes that for enhanced adaptability, institutional arrangements should be polycentric, aligned with the scale of ecosystems (the bioregional approach, feature open and participatory governance, and involve much experimentation. The case of flood management in the German part of the Rhine basin is used to provide an assessment of these ideas. We analyze whether and to what degree the prescriptions have been implemented and whether or not certain fundamental changes seen in German flood management can be traced back to the application of the prescriptions. Our study demonstrates a transition from the traditional engineering and "flood control" approach to a more holistic management concept based on a risk perspective. In this process, the four ACM prescriptions have made an important contribution in preparing or facilitating policy changes. The findings suggest that the application of the prescriptions requires the right supporting context before they can be applied to the fullest extent possible, such as a high problem pressure, new discourses, or leading actors. A major constraint arises in the misalignment of political power and of the different interests of the actors, which contribute to reactive management and inadequate interplay. To address this, we recommend

  8. Flood vulnerability of critical infrastructure in Cork, Ireland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bruijn Karin M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent flood events in Ireland and particularly in County Cork have caused significant disruption to health service provisions, interruption of water and power supplies, and damage to roads and other transportation infrastructure, affecting the lives of hundreds of thousands of people over a prolonged period of weeks. These events clearly reveal- the vulnerability of the critical infrastructure to flooding and the dependence of society on critical infrastructure. In order to reduce the flood vulnerability and increase the resilience of the critical infrastructure networks in the future, detailed evidence-based analysis and assessment is essential. To this end a case study has been carried out on Cork City which analyses this vulnerability as it was in 2009, and as it is currently, and identifies adaptation options to reduce the future vulnerability of critical infrastructure to flooding and to build a more resilient society. This paper describes the storyline approach and CIrcle tool and their application to Cork City which focused on the analysis of the flood vulnerability of critical infrastructure and the impacts of failure of the infrastructure for other critical functions and on society.

  9. Real Time Estimation of the Calgary Floods Using Limited Remote Sensing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Schnebele

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Every year, flood disasters are responsible for widespread destruction and loss of human life. Remote sensing data are capable of providing valuable, synoptic coverage of flood events but are not always available because of satellite revisit limitations, obstructions from cloud cover or vegetation canopy, or expense. In addition, knowledge of road accessibility is imperative during all phases of a flood event. In June 2013, the City of Calgary experienced sudden and extensive flooding but lacked comprehensive remote sensing coverage. Using this event as a case study, this work illustrates how data from non-authoritative sources are used to augment traditional data and methods to estimate flood extent and identify affected roads during a flood disaster. The application of these data, which may have varying resolutions and uncertainities, provide an estimation of flood extent when traditional data and methods are lacking or incomplete. When flooding occurs over multiple days, it is possible to construct an estimate of the advancement and recession of the flood event. Non-authoritative sources also provide flood information at the micro-level, which can be difficult to capture from remote sensing data; however, the distibution and quantity of data collected from these sources will affect the quality of the flood estimations.

  10. Archaeofaunal insights on pinniped-human interactions in the northeastern Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gifford-Gonzales, D; Newsome, S; Koch, P; Guilderson, T; Snodgrass, J; Burton, R

    2004-02-07

    Human exploitation of pinnipeds has considerable antiquity but shows increasing impacts on population numbers in the Holocene. Pinnipeds are a rich source of fat as well as protein. A few well-documented cases of regional extirpation of seals and sea lions by non-industrial peoples exist. The northeastern Pacific region, from southern California to Alaska, has yielded archaeological evidence for distributions and abundances of eared seals that differs markedly from historically documented biogeography. This is especially true of the northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus), among the most common pinnipeds in many archaeological sites from the Santa Barbara Channel area through to Kodiak Islands. This chapter reviews contemporary eared seal biogeography, evidence for the earlier timing and extent, of occurrence of northern fur seals along the northeastern Pacific coast, zooarchaeological and isotopic evidence for their foraging and probable maintenance of rookeries in lower latitudes, and for their disappearance from the southernmost part of their ancient distribution well before European contact. It also reviews ongoing debates over the behavioral ecology of ancient fur seals and over humans role in contributing to their disappearance.

  11. Improving the allocation of flood-risk interventions from a spatial quality perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nillesen, A.L.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes an integral approach to flood-risk protection and spatial design that allows for an active involvement of landscape architects and urban designers in the allocation of flood-risk interventions within the Dutch Delta. The Dutch Rijnmond–Drechtsteden area is used as a case study

  12. The European Union approach to flood risk management and improving societal resilience: lessons from the implementation of the Floods Directive in six European countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sally J. Priest

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Diversity in flood risk management approaches is often considered to be a strength. However, in some national settings, and especially for transboundary rivers, variability and incompatibility of approaches can reduce the effectiveness of flood risk management. Placed in the context of increasing flood risks, as well as the potential for flooding to undermine the European Union's sustainable development goals, a desire to increase societal resilience to flooding has prompted the introduction of a common European Framework. We provide a legal and policy analysis of the implementation of the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC in six countries: Belgium (Flemish region, England, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. Evaluation criteria from existing legal and policy literature frame the study of the Directive and its effect on enhancing or constraining societal resilience by using an adaptive governance approach. These criteria are initially used to analyze the key components of the EU approach, before providing insight of the implementation of the Directive at a national level. Similarities and differences in the legal translation of European goals into existing flood risk management are analyzed alongside their relative influence on policy and practice. The research highlights that the effect of the Floods Directive on increasing societal resilience has been nationally variable, in part because of its focus on procedural obligations, rather than on more substantive requirements. Analysis shows that despite a focus on transboundary river basin management, existing traditions of flood risk management have overridden objectives to harmonize flood risk management in some cases. The Directive could be strengthened by requiring more stringent cooperation and providing the competent authorities in international river basin districts with more power. Despite some shortcomings in directly affecting flood risk outcomes, the Directive has positively

  13. Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merz, B.; Aerts, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2014-01-01

    context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical......, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand......Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction...

  14. Flooding and the framing of risk in British broadsheets, 1985-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Maria Paula; Demeritt, David

    2014-05-01

    Our analysis of 2707 news stories explores the framing of flooding in Britain over the past quarter century and the displacement of a once dominant understanding of flooding as an agricultural problem of land drainage by the contemporary concern for its urban impacts, particularly to homes and property. We document dramatic changes in the volume and variety of reporting about flooding since 2000 as the risks of flooding have become more salient, the informal 'Gentlemen's Agreement' between government and private insurers has broken down, and flood management subjected to greater public scrutiny. While the historic reliance on private insurance remains largely unchallenged, we show that other aspects of flood hazard management are now topics of active political debate to which the looming threat of climate change adds both urgency and exculpatory excuses for poor performance. We conclude by reflecting on the significance of the case for grand theories of neoliberalisation and governmentality.

  15. The Impact of Changing Storage Area on Flood Magnitude and Occurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kusumastuti D.I.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the impact of combined catchment and storage upon flood occurrences and flood peaks. A significant factor that plays an important role of the combined catchment and storage is the ratio of contributing catchment area to storage area (AC/AS where the impact significantly shows increasing frequency of storage overflow and flood peaks with the increasing of AC/AS. Some case studies examined in this work, i.e. Way Pegadungan (Lampung, Sumatra and NagaraRiver (South Kalimantan catchments show similar behavior. Swamps located on the sides of downstream of Way Pegadungan as well as Nagara River act as storages during flood events. The dyke which was planned to be built increases the ratio of AC/AS significantly as storage area reduced considerably. This has an impact on flood peaks which can increase considerably. The improved understanding of these process controls will be useful in assisting the management of such catchments, particularly to assist in flood prevention and mitigation.

  16. A Dynamic Model for Roll Motion of Ships Due to Flooding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xia, Jinzhu; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1997-01-01

    A dynamic model is presented of the roll motion of damaged RoRo vessels which couples the internal cross-flooding flow and the air action in the equalizing compartment. The cross flooding flow and the air motion are modelled by a modified Bernoulli equation, where artificial damping is introduced...... to avoid modal instability based on the original Bernoulli equation. The fluid action of the flooded water on the ship is expressed by its influence on the moment of inertia of the ship and the heeling moment, which is a couple created by the gravitational force of the flooded water and the change...... of buoyancy of the ship.Two limiting flooding cases are examined in the present analysis: The sudden ingress of a certain amount of water to the damaged compartment with no further water exchange between the sea and the flooded compartment during the roll motion, and the continuous ingress of water through...

  17. The Importance of Studying Past Extreme Floods to Prepare for Uncertain Future Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burges, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    Hoyt and Langbein, 1955 in their book `Floods' wrote: " ..meteorologic and hydrologic conditions will combine to produce superfloods of unprecedented magnitude. We have every reason to believe that in most rivers past floods may not be an accurate measure of ultimate flood potentialities. It is this superflood with which we are always most concerned". I provide several examples to offer some historical perspective on assessing extreme floods. In one example, flooding in the Miami Valley, OH in 1913 claimed 350 lives. The engineering and socio-economic challenges facing the Morgan Engineering Co in how to mitigate against future flood damage and loss of life when limited information was available provide guidance about ways to face an uncertain hydroclimate future, particularly one of a changed climate. A second example forces us to examine mixed flood populations and illustrates the huge uncertainty in assigning flood magnitude and exceedance probability to extreme floods in such cases. There is large uncertainty in flood frequency estimates; knowledge of the total flood hydrograph, not the peak flood flow rate alone, is what is needed for hazard mitigation assessment or design. Some challenges in estimating the complete flood hydrograph in an uncertain future climate, including demands on hydrologic models and their inputs, are addressed.

  18. A new approach to flood vulnerability assessment for historic buildings in England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, V.; D'Ayala, D.

    2014-05-01

    The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is presented here that studies the nature of the vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. Key findings of the work include determining the applicability of these indicators to fragility analysis, and the determination of the relative vulnerability of the three case study sites.

  19. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  20. Effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures: Empirical evidence from French flood disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poussin, J.K.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2015-01-01

    Recent destructive flood events and projected increases in flood risks as a result of climate change in many regions around the world demonstrate the importance of improving flood risk management. Flood-proofing of buildings is often advocated as an effective strategy for limiting damage caused by

  1. How context affects international projects : the cases of Dutch-Romanian cooperation on flood risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vinke-de Kruijf, Joanne; Teodosiu, Carmen; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

    2011-01-01

    Many countries around the world are confronted with a considerable increase of floods and flood risks. The exchange of knowledge may be beneficial but requires careful consideration of contextual factors. This paper explores the relation between contextual factors and the effectiveness of

  2. Estimation of flood environmental effects using flood zone mapping techniques in Halilrood Kerman, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudaghpour, Siamak; Bagheri, Majid; Bagheri, Zahra

    2014-01-01

    High flood occurrences with large environmental damages have a growing trend in Iran. Dynamic movements of water during a flood cause different environmental damages in geographical areas with different characteristics such as topographic conditions. In general, environmental effects and damages caused by a flood in an area can be investigated from different points of view. The current essay is aiming at detecting environmental effects of flood occurrences in Halilrood catchment area of Kerman province in Iran using flood zone mapping techniques. The intended flood zone map was introduced in four steps. Steps 1 to 3 pave the way to calculate and estimate flood zone map in the understudy area while step 4 determines the estimation of environmental effects of flood occurrence. Based on our studies, wide range of accuracy for estimating the environmental effects of flood occurrence was introduced by using of flood zone mapping techniques. Moreover, it was identified that the existence of Jiroft dam in the study area can decrease flood zone from 260 hectares to 225 hectares and also it can decrease 20% of flood peak intensity. As a result, 14% of flood zone in the study area can be saved environmentally.

  3. Flood Risk Management in Iowa through an Integrated Flood Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, Ibrahim; Krajewski, Witold

    2013-04-01

    The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 1100 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert

  4. Managing the Risk of Flooding and Sea-level Rise in Cape Town ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Studies. Managing disasters in the context of climate change : towards sustainable urban flood management in Cape Town ... Moving through the city : gender and floods at play; a case study in Sweet Home Farm informal settlement, Cape Town ... public health, and health systems research relevant to the emerging crisis.

  5. Flood modelling with global precipitation measurement (GPM) satellite rainfall data: a case study of Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sai Krishna, V. V.; Dikshit, Anil Kumar; Pandey, Kamal

    2016-05-01

    Urban expansion, water bodies and climate change are inextricably linked with each other. The macro and micro level climate changes are leading to extreme precipitation events which have severe consequences on flooding in urban areas. Flood simulations shall be helpful in demarcation of flooded areas and effective flood planning and preparedness. The temporal availability of satellite rainfall data at varying spatial scale of 0.10 to 0.50 is helpful in near real time flood simulations. The present research aims at analysing stream flow and runoff to monitor flood condition using satellite rainfall data in a hydrologic model. The satellite rainfall data used in the research was NASA's Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), which is available at 30 minutes temporal resolution. Landsat data was used for mapping the water bodies in the study area. Land use land cover (LULC) data was prepared using Landsat 8 data with maximum likelihood technique that was provided as an input to the HEC-HMS hydrological model. The research was applied to one of the urbanized cities of India, viz. Dehradun, which is the capital of Uttarakhand State. The research helped in identifying the flood vulnerability at the basin level on the basis of the runoff and various socio economic parameters using multi criteria analysis.

  6. Flood Risk Mapping Using Flow Energy Equation and Geographic Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    pourya Javan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Flooding and its damages are not only found uplift water level in a region. In other words, the depth and speed parameters together have determining the level of flood risk at each point. This subject is visible in flooded plain with low height and high speed of 2 meters per second, which damages are extensive. According to the criteria of having both velocity and flow depth in the governing equation to the flows energy, this equation seems appropriate to analysis in this study. Various methods have been proposed for increase accuracy in flood zoning with different return periods and risks associated with it in land border of river. For example, some of these methods are considered factors such as analysis of past flooding in the area affected by floods, hydrological factors and consideration of hydraulic elements affecting in flood zoning (such as flow velocity. This paper investigates the effect of flood zoning by the energy flow in the areas affected by floods. Also risk due to flood based on energy flow in each section of the river is compared by the proposed graphs of hazard interval and other done flood zoning in this field. In this study, the FORDO river has been selected as the case study. This river is part of the rivers located in the city of QOM KAHAK. The characteristics of river in upstream and downstream are mountain, young and stable and adult, respectively. Also this river in different seasons is exposed the flood damage. The proposed method in this study can be improving recognition accuracy of flood risk in areas affected by flood. Also, this method facilitate the identify parts of the river bed, that is affected by severe flooding, for decision making to improve rivers organizing.

  7. Development of Integrated Flood Analysis System for Improving Flood Mitigation Capabilities in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-suk

    2016-04-01

    Recently, the needs of people are growing for a more safety life and secure homeland from unexpected natural disasters. Flood damages have been recorded every year and those damages are greater than the annual average of 2 trillion won since 2000 in Korea. It has been increased in casualties and property damages due to flooding caused by hydrometeorlogical extremes according to climate change. Although the importance of flooding situation is emerging rapidly, studies related to development of integrated management system for reducing floods are insufficient in Korea. In addition, it is difficult to effectively reduce floods without developing integrated operation system taking into account of sewage pipe network configuration with the river level. Since the floods result in increasing damages to infrastructure, as well as life and property, structural and non-structural measures should be urgently established in order to effectively reduce the flood. Therefore, in this study, we developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting for supporting synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information in Korea. Keywords: Flooding, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ011686022015)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea

  8. Revision to flood hazard evaluation for the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Werth, D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2014-08-25

    Requirements for the Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing Department of Energy (DOE) facilities are outlined in DOE Order 420.1. This report examines the hazards posed by potential flooding and represents an update to two previous reports. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve is defined as the water elevation for each annual probability of precipitation occurrence (or inversely, the return period in years). New design hyetographs for both 6-hr and 24-hr precipitation distributions were used in conjunction with hydrological models of various basins within the Savannah River Site (SRS). For numerous locations of interest, peak flow discharge and flood water elevation were determined. In all cases, the probability of flooding of these facilities for a 100,000 year precipitation event is negligible.

  9. Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongman, B.; Koks, E. E.; Husby, T. G.; Ward, P. J.

    2014-05-01

    The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on an accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information provides valuable input to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood-prone areas has been higher than in non-flood-prone areas. We also find that property values in flood-prone areas are lower than those in non-flood-prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood-prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing.

  10. Do regional methods really help reduce uncertainties in flood frequency analyses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong Nguyen, Chi; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric

    2013-04-01

    Flood frequency analyses are often based on continuous measured series at gauge sites. However, the length of the available data sets is usually too short to provide reliable estimates of extreme design floods. To reduce the estimation uncertainties, the analyzed data sets have to be extended either in time, making use of historical and paleoflood data, or in space, merging data sets considered as statistically homogeneous to build large regional data samples. Nevertheless, the advantage of the regional analyses, the important increase of the size of the studied data sets, may be counterbalanced by the possible heterogeneities of the merged sets. The application and comparison of four different flood frequency analysis methods to two regions affected by flash floods in the south of France (Ardèche and Var) illustrates how this balance between the number of records and possible heterogeneities plays in real-world applications. The four tested methods are: (1) a local statistical analysis based on the existing series of measured discharges, (2) a local analysis valuating the existing information on historical floods, (3) a standard regional flood frequency analysis based on existing measured series at gauged sites and (4) a modified regional analysis including estimated extreme peak discharges at ungauged sites. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to simulate a large number of discharge series with characteristics similar to the observed ones (type of statistical distributions, number of sites and records) to evaluate to which extent the results obtained on these case studies can be generalized. These two case studies indicate that even small statistical heterogeneities, which are not detected by the standard homogeneity tests implemented in regional flood frequency studies, may drastically limit the usefulness of such approaches. On the other hand, these result show that the valuation of information on extreme events, either historical flood events at gauged

  11. Multi-decadal Hydrological Retrospective: Case study of Amazon floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Collischonn, Walter

    2017-06-01

    Recently developed methodologies such as climate reanalysis make it possible to create a historical record of climate systems. This paper proposes a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), which essentially simulates large rainfall datasets, using this as input into hydrological models to develop a record of past hydrology, making it possible to analyze past floods and droughts. We developed a methodology for the Amazon basin, where studies have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in recent decades. We used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) as input for a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH). HR products were then validated against several in situ discharge gauges controlling the main Amazon sub-basins, focusing on maximum and minimum events. For the most accurate HR, based on performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts, comparing the results with in-situ observations. A statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and droughts in the entire Amazon basin. Results indicate that HR could represent most past extreme events well, compared with in-situ observed data, and was consistent with many events reported in literature. Because of their flow duration, some minor regional events were not reported in literature but were captured by HR. To represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events, we believe it is feasible to use some large precipitation datasets such as i) climate reanalysis, which is mainly based on a land surface component, and ii) datasets based on merged products. A significant upward trend in intensity was seen in maximum annual discharge (related to floods) in western and northwestern regions and for minimum annual discharge (related to droughts) in south and central-south regions of the Amazon basin. Because of the global coverage of rainfall datasets

  12. Identification of urban flood vulnerability in eastern Slovakia by mapping the potential natural sources of flooding - implications for territorial planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Gaňová

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the presented study was to assess the distribution of flood-risk potential (FRP at the regional scale. A progressive approach integrating geographical information system (GIS with two different methods of multicriteria analysis (MCA – analytic hierarchy process (AHP and ranking method (RM was applied in the process. In the analyses, the most causative factors for flooding were taken into account, urban spatial planning, such as soil type, daily precipitation, land use, size of the catchment and average basin slope. A case study of flood vulnerability identification in the Hornád and Bodrog catchments’ areas in eastern Slovakia has been employed to illustrate two different approaches. Spatial estimation of FRP should be one of the basic steps for complex geoecological evaluation and delimitation of landscape considering water resources management, groundwater pollution, prediction of soil erosion and sediment transport and some other important landscape-ecological factors. The obtained results indicate that RM method shows better results as related to the existing floods in the recent years in Bodrog and Hornád catchment than AHP method.

  13. Response of upper ocean cooling off northeastern Taiwan to typhoon passages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zhe-Wen; Zheng, Quanan; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Kuo, Yi-Chun; Yeh, Ting-Kuang

    2017-07-01

    A comprehensive investigation of the typhoon induced upper ocean processes and responses off northeastern Taiwan was conducted. Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System, the upper ocean responses of all typhoons striking Taiwan between 2005 and 2013 were simulated. In addition to Kuroshio intrusion, the present study demonstrates another important mechanism of typhoon induced near-inertial currents over the continental shelf of East China Sea, which can also trigger a distinct cooling (through entrainment mixing) within this region. Results indicate that the processes of typhoon inducing distinct cooling off northeastern Taiwan are conditional phenomena (only ∼12% of typhoons passing Taiwan triggered extreme cooling there). Subsequently, by executing a series of sensitivity experiments and systematic analyses on the behaviors and background conditions of all those typhoon cases, key criteria determining the occurrences of cooling through both mechanisms were elucidated. Occurrences of cooling through the Kuroshio intrusion mechanism are determined mainly by the strength of the local wind over northeastern Taiwan. A distinct cooling triggered by enhanced near-inertial currents is shown to be associated with the process of wind-current resonance. Both processes of Kuroshio intrusion and enhanced near-inertial currents are dominated by wind forcing rather than upper oceanic conditions. Based on the recent findings on the possible dynamic linkage between sea surface temperature near northeast Taiwan and local weather systems, the results elucidated in this study lay the foundation for further improvement in the regional weather prediction surrounding northeast Taiwan.

  14. A software tool for rapid flood inundation mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, James; Verdin, Kristine; Mathis, Melissa L.; Magadzire, Tamuka; Kabuchanga, Eric; Woodbury, Mark; Gadain, Hussein

    2016-06-02

    The GIS Flood Tool (GFT) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance to provide a means for production of reconnaissance-level flood inundation mapping for data-sparse and resource-limited areas of the world. The GFT has also attracted interest as a tool for rapid assessment flood inundation mapping for the Flood Inundation Mapping Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The GFT can fill an important gap for communities that lack flood inundation mapping by providing a first-estimate of inundation zones, pending availability of resources to complete an engineering study. The tool can also help identify priority areas for application of scarce flood inundation mapping resources. The technical basis of the GFT is an application of the Manning equation for steady flow in an open channel, operating on specially processed digital elevation data. The GFT is implemented as a software extension in ArcGIS. Output maps from the GFT were validated at 11 sites with inundation maps produced previously by the Flood Inundation Mapping Program using standard one-dimensional hydraulic modeling techniques. In 80 percent of the cases, the GFT inundation patterns matched 75 percent or more of the one-dimensional hydraulic model inundation patterns. Lower rates of pattern agreement were seen at sites with low relief and subtle surface water divides. Although the GFT is simple to use, it should be applied with the oversight or review of a qualified hydraulic engineer who understands the simplifying assumptions of the approach.

  15. Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards

  16. Flood Risk Regional Flood Defences : Technical report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, M.; Jonkman, S.N.; Lendering, K.T.

    2015-01-01

    Historically the Netherlands have always had to deal with the threat of flooding, both from the rivers and the sea as well as from heavy rainfall. The country consists of a large amount of polders, which are low lying areas of land protected from flooding by embankments. These polders require an

  17. The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

    2017-04-01

    Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

  18. Computational fluid dynamics simulations of the Late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abril-Hernández, José M.; Periáñez, Raúl; O'Connor, Jim E.; Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    At approximately 18.0 ka, pluvial Lake Bonneville reached its maximum level. At its northeastern extent it was impounded by alluvium of the Marsh Creek Fan, which breached at some point north of Red Rock Pass (Idaho), leading to one of the largest floods on Earth. About 5320 km3 of water was discharged into the Snake River drainage and ultimately into the Columbia River. We use a 0D model and a 2D non-linear depth-averaged hydrodynamic model to aid understanding of outflow dynamics, specifically evaluating controls on the amount of water exiting the Lake Bonneville basin exerted by the Red Rock Pass outlet lithology and geometry as well as those imposed by the internal lake geometry of the Bonneville basin. These models are based on field evidence of prominent lake levels, hypsometry and terrain elevations corrected for post-flood isostatic deformation of the lake basin, as well as reconstructions of the topography at the outlet for both the initial and final stages of the flood. Internal flow dynamics in the northern Lake Bonneville basin during the flood were affected by the narrow passages separating the Cache Valley from the main body of Lake Bonneville. This constriction imposed a water-level drop of up to 2.7 m at the time of peak-flow conditions and likely reduced the peak discharge at the lake outlet by about 6%. The modeled peak outlet flow is 0.85·106 m3 s−1. Energy balance calculations give an estimate for the erodibility coefficient for the alluvial Marsh Creek divide of ∼0.005 m y−1 Pa−1.5, at least two orders of magnitude greater than for the underlying bedrock at the outlet. Computing quasi steady-state water flows, water elevations, water currents and shear stresses as a function of the water-level drop in the lake and for the sequential stages of erosion in the outlet gives estimates of the incision rates and an estimate of the outflow hydrograph during the Bonneville Flood: About 18 days would have been required for the

  19. Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations of the Late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville Flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abril-Hernández, José M.; Periáñez, Raúl; O'Connor, Jim E.; Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel

    2018-06-01

    At approximately 18.0 ka, pluvial Lake Bonneville reached its maximum level. At its northeastern extent it was impounded by alluvium of the Marsh Creek Fan, which breached at some point north of Red Rock Pass (Idaho), leading to one of the largest floods on Earth. About 5320 km3 of water was discharged into the Snake River drainage and ultimately into the Columbia River. We use a 0D model and a 2D non-linear depth-averaged hydrodynamic model to aid understanding of outflow dynamics, specifically evaluating controls on the amount of water exiting the Lake Bonneville basin exerted by the Red Rock Pass outlet lithology and geometry as well as those imposed by the internal lake geometry of the Bonneville basin. These models are based on field evidence of prominent lake levels, hypsometry and terrain elevations corrected for post-flood isostatic deformation of the lake basin, as well as reconstructions of the topography at the outlet for both the initial and final stages of the flood. Internal flow dynamics in the northern Lake Bonneville basin during the flood were affected by the narrow passages separating the Cache Valley from the main body of Lake Bonneville. This constriction imposed a water-level drop of up to 2.7 m at the time of peak-flow conditions and likely reduced the peak discharge at the lake outlet by about 6%. The modeled peak outlet flow is 0.85·106 m3 s-1. Energy balance calculations give an estimate for the erodibility coefficient for the alluvial Marsh Creek divide of ∼0.005 m y-1 Pa-1.5, at least two orders of magnitude greater than for the underlying bedrock at the outlet. Computing quasi steady-state water flows, water elevations, water currents and shear stresses as a function of the water-level drop in the lake and for the sequential stages of erosion in the outlet gives estimates of the incision rates and an estimate of the outflow hydrograph during the Bonneville Flood: About 18 days would have been required for the outflow to grow from 10

  20. Application of MIKE21 Software in Flood Routing of Tidal Rivers: A Case Study of the Zohre River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karami Khaniki

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood routing is of special importance from different aspects of river engineering such as flood zoning, flood forecasting, etc. There are two methods employed in river flood routing, hydraulic and hydrological. Hydrological methods are used when the river is at low tide and, hence, cannot be employed to analyze floods caused by the tide. Hydraulic methods must be employed in tidal rivers when the direction of the current reverses at high tide. In this research,MIKE21 modeling software was used for the flood routing of the Zohreh tidal river. The model was calibrated by surveying the river, taking samples form the river bed, measuring sea water level and the velocity of the river flow. Analyzing the sensitivity of the model showed that the coefficient of determination, root mean square error and relative error were 0.95, 0.032, and 0.27, respectively, all indicating the efficacy of the model in simulating different parameters such as velocity, flow rate, and water surface profile. The flood routing results of the tidal currents showed that the hydrograph of the influent and effluent to the reach at high tide (when the current direction is from sea to the river was similar to the normal flood routing of the river, but at low tide (when the current direction is from the sea to the river influent and effluent hydrograph would not follow the laws of normal flood routing.

  1. Cenozoic mountain building on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lease, Richard O.

    2014-01-01

    Northeastern Tibetan Plateau growth illuminates the kinematics, geodynamics, and climatic consequences of large-scale orogenesis, yet only recently have data become available to outline the spatiotemporal pattern and rates of this growth. I review the tectonic history of range growth across the plateau margin north of the Kunlun fault (35°–40°N) and east of the Qaidam basin (98°–107°E), synthesizing records from fault-bounded mountain ranges and adjacent sedimentary basins. Deformation began in Eocene time shortly after India-Asia collision, but the northeastern orogen boundary has largely remained stationary since this time. Widespread middle Miocene–Holocene range growth is portrayed by accelerated deformation, uplift, erosion, and deposition across northeastern Tibet. The extent of deformation, however, only expanded ~150 km outward to the north and east and ~150 km laterally to the west. A middle Miocene reorganization of deformation characterized by shortening at various orientations heralds the onset of the modern kinematic regime where shortening is coupled to strike slip. This regime is responsible for the majority of Cenozoic crustal shortening and thickening and the development of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

  2. What can be learned from the Simonette flood of August 1987?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodman, R.F.

    1991-01-01

    The 1987 Simonette flood in Alberta was of unprecedented magnitude. It has been estimated as a 300- to 500-year return period event. Approximately 220 mm of precipitation fell over the 5,050 km 2 area in a day and a half, with 85% falling in a 24 hour period. The Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) rainfall-runoff model of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, was used to try to simulate the flood. It was concluded that the flood could not be modelled because cascading debris dams and a landslide modified the rainfall-runoff hydrograph. Physical processes such as debris dams and landslides should be allowed for when selecting design events in hydrotechnical engineering. Sound engineering judgement must be applied on a case-by-case specific basis to justify this additional design allowance. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  3. A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Katie; Hall, Jim; Glenis, Vassilis; Kilsby, Chris

    2017-10-30

    Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high-intensity events, is known as "surface water flooding." Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Disruption and adaptation of urban transport networks from flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pregnolato Maria

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Transport infrastructure networks are increasingly vulnerable to disruption from extreme rainfall events due to increasing surface water runoff from urbanization and changes in climate. Impacts from such disruptions typically extend far beyond the flood footprint, because of the interconnection and spatial extent of modern infrastructure. An integrated flood risk assessment couples high resolution information on depth and velocity from the CityCAT urban flood model with empirical analysis of vehicle speeds in different depths of flood water, to perturb a transport accessibility model and determine the impact of a given event on journey times across the urban area. A case study in Newcastle-upon-Tyne (UK shows that even minor flooding associate with a 1 in 10 year event can cause traffic disruptions of nearly half an hour. Two adaptation scenarios are subsequently tested (i hardening (i.e. flood protection a single major junction, (ii introduction of green roofs across all buildings. Both options have benefits in terms of reduced disruption, but for a 1 in 200 year event greening all roofs in the city provided only three times the benefit of protecting one critical road junction, highlighting the importance of understanding network attributes such as capacity and flows.

  5. Hydrologic modeling of flood conveyance and impacts of historic overbank sedimentation on West Fork Black's Fork, Uinta Mountains, northeastern Utah, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, Eric C.

    2006-05-01

    This study assesses historic overbank alluvial sedimentation along a low-gradient reach of West Fork Black's Fork in the northern Uinta Mountains, Utah. In this previously glaciated setting, an alluvial floodplain that is approximately 400 m wide by 1500 m long has been modified by the combined effects of valley morphometry and the recent history of clear-cut logging during the late 19th and early 20th Centuries. To quantify the effects on sedimentation and flow conveyance, three natural streambank exposures were sampled and analyzed for nuclear bomb fallout 137Cs. The distribution of 137Cs within the three profiles suggests that a remnant outwash terrace exerts a first-order control over the deposition of overbank alluvium. Upstream from a constriction in the floodplain caused by the terrace remnant, as much as 40 cm of overbank alluvium has been deposited since the beginning of clear-cut logging. Immediately downstream of that constriction, no evidence exists for any overbank sedimentation during that same period. Vibracore samples and Oakfield soil probe sampling throughout the study reach quantified the geographic extent and thicknesses of the historic alluvial package. Flood conveyance through the study area was modeled using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-RAS modeling program. Model simulations were run for modern conditions (using surveyed topography) and for prehistoric conditions (using the modern topography less the historic alluvial package determined by 137Cs analyses). Model results indicate that the floodplain constriction caused a significant impediment to flood conveyance at even modest discharges during prehistoric conditions. This promoted ponding of floodwaters upstream of the constriction and deposition of alluvium. This has increased bank heights upstream of the constriction, to the point that under modern conditions 1- to 5-year recurrence interval floods are largely confined within the channel. These results confirm the validity of this

  6. An uncertainty-based framework to quantifying climate change impacts on coastal flood vulnerability: case study of New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad

    2017-10-17

    The continued development efforts around the world, growing population, and the increased probability of occurrence of extreme hydrologic events have adversely affected natural and built environments. Flood damages and loss of lives from the devastating storms, such as Irene and Sandy on the East Coast of the USA, are examples of the vulnerability to flooding that even developed countries have to face. The odds of coastal flooding disasters have been increased due to accelerated sea level rise, climate change impacts, and communities' interest to live near the coastlines. Climate change, for instance, is becoming a major threat to sustainable development because of its adverse impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Effective management strategies are thus required for flood vulnerability reduction and disaster preparedness. This paper is an extension to the flood resilience studies in the New York City coastal watershed. Here, a framework is proposed to quantify coastal flood vulnerability while accounting for climate change impacts. To do so, a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that combines watershed characteristics (factors) and their weights is proposed to quantify flood vulnerability. Among the watershed characteristics, potential variation in the hydrologic factors under climate change impacts is modeled utilizing the general circulation models' (GCMs) outputs. The considered factors include rainfall, extreme water level, and sea level rise that exacerbate flood vulnerability through increasing exposure and susceptibility to flooding. Uncertainty in the weights as well as values of factors is incorporated in the analysis using the Monte Carlo (MC) sampling method by selecting the best-fitted distributions to the parameters with random nature. A number of low impact development (LID) measures are then proposed to improve watershed adaptive capacity to deal with coastal flooding. Potential range of current and future vulnerability to flooding is

  7. Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, M. J.; Botero, B. A.; López, J.; Francés, F.; Díez-Herrero, A.; Benito, G.

    2015-06-01

    Historical records are an important source of information on extreme and rare floods and fundamental to establish a reliable flood return frequency. The use of long historical records for flood frequency analysis brings in the question of flood stationarity, since climatic and land-use conditions can affect the relevance of past flooding as a predictor of future flooding. In this paper, a detailed 400 yr flood record from the Tagus River in Aranjuez (central Spain) was analysed under stationary and non-stationary flood frequency approaches, to assess their contribution within hazard studies. Historical flood records in Aranjuez were obtained from documents (Proceedings of the City Council, diaries, chronicles, memoirs, etc.), epigraphic marks, and indirect historical sources and reports. The water levels associated with different floods (derived from descriptions or epigraphic marks) were computed into discharge values using a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Secular variations in flood magnitude and frequency, found to respond to climate and environmental drivers, showed a good correlation between high values of historical flood discharges and a negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Over the systematic gauge record (1913-2008), an abrupt change on flood magnitude was produced in 1957 due to constructions of three major reservoirs in the Tagus headwaters (Bolarque, Entrepeñas and Buendia) controlling 80% of the watershed surface draining to Aranjuez. Two different models were used for the flood frequency analysis: (a) a stationary model estimating statistical distributions incorporating imprecise and categorical data based on maximum likelihood estimators, and (b) a time-varying model based on "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS) modelling, which incorporates external covariates related to climate variability (NAO index) and catchment hydrology factors (in this paper a reservoir index; RI). Flood frequency

  8. The role of interactions along the flood process chain and implications for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Apel, Heiko; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Lüdtke, Stefan; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    Floods with their manifold characteristics are shaped by various processes along the flood process chain - from triggering meteorological extremes through catchment and river network process down to impacts on societies. In flood risk systems numerous interactions and feedbacks along the process chain may occur which finally shape spatio-temporal flood patterns and determine the ultimate risk. In this talk, we review some important interactions in the atmosphere-catchment, river-dike-floodplain and vulnerability compartments of the flood risk system. We highlight the importance of spatial interactions for flood hazard and risk assessment. For instance, the role of spatial rainfall structure or wave superposition in river networks is elucidated with selected case studies. In conclusion, we show the limits of current methods in assessment of large-scale flooding and outline the approach to more comprehensive risk assessment based on our regional flood risk model (RFM) for Germany.

  9. Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas Based on Spatial Analytics and Social Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Costas Armenakis

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood maps alone are not sufficient to determine and assess the risks to people, property, infrastructure, and services due to a flood event. Simply put, the risk is almost zero to minimum if the flooded region is “empty” (i.e., unpopulated, has not properties, no industry, no infrastructure, and no socio-economic activity. High spatial resolution Earth Observation (EO data can contribute to the generation and updating of flood risk maps based on several aspects including population, economic development, and critical infrastructure, which can enhance a city’s flood mitigation and preparedness planning. In this case study for the Don River watershed, Toronto, the flood risk is determined and flood risk index maps are generated by implementing a methodology for estimating risk based on the geographic coverage of the flood hazard, vulnerability of people, and the exposure of large building structures to flood water. Specifically, the spatial flood risk index maps have been generated through analytical spatial modeling which takes into account the areas in which a flood hazard is expected to occur, the terrain’s morphological characteristics, socio-economic parameters based on demographic data, and the density of large building complexes. Generated flood risk maps are verified through visual inspection with 3D city flood maps. Findings illustrate that areas of higher flood risk coincide with areas of high flood hazard and social and building exposure vulnerability.

  10. Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merz, B.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Baldi, M.; Becker, A.; Bichet, A.; Blöschl, G.; Bouwer, L.M.; Brauer, A.; Cioffi, F.; Delgado, J.M.; Gocht, M.; Guzetti, F.; Harrigan, S.; Hirschboeck, K.; Kilsby, C.; Kron, W.; Kwon, H. -H.; Lall, U.; Merz, R.; Nissen, K.; Salvatti, P.; Swierczynski, T.; Ulbrich, U.; Viglione, A.; Ward, P.J.; Weiler, M.; Wilhelm, B.; Nied, M.

    2014-01-01

    Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of

  11. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-05-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM

  12. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. C. Winsemius

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population. The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE. We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from

  13. Real-time forecasts of flood hazard and impact: some UK experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cole Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Major UK floods over the last decade have motivated significant technological and scientific advances in operational flood forecasting and warning. New joint forecasting centres between the national hydrological and meteorological operating agencies have been formed that issue a daily, national Flood Guidance Statement (FGS to the emergency response community. The FGS is based on a Flood Risk Matrix approach that is a function of potential impact severity and likelihood. It has driven an increased demand for robust, accurate and timely forecast and alert information on fluvial and surface water flooding along with impact assessments. The Grid-to-Grid (G2G distributed hydrological model has been employed across Britain at a 1km resolution to support the FGS. Novel methods for linking dynamic gridded estimates of river flow and surface runoff with more detailed offline flood risk maps have been developed to obtain real-time probabilistic forecasts of potential impacts, leading to operational trials. Examples of the national-scale G2G application are provided along with case studies of forecast flood impact from (i an operational Surface Water Flooding (SWF trial during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, (ii SWF developments under the Natural Hazards Partnership over England & Wales, and (iii fluvial applications in Scotland.

  14. Urban flood risk warning under rapid urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yangbo; Zhou, Haolan; Zhang, Hui; Du, Guoming; Zhou, Jinhui

    2015-05-01

    multiple index fuzzy evaluation warning method, and referred to as DMFEW method. DMFEW first selects 5 evaluation indexes based on the DPSIR model for flood risk warning evaluation, including driving force index, pressure index, state index, impact index and response index. Based on the values of all evaluation indexes, one evaluation index for the whole system evaluation result is determined by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The flood risk level is divided into 4 levels, having Level 1 the most serious. Every evaluation index is also categorized as 4 levels, and a linear fuzzy subjection function is proposed to do the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Dongguan City is used as the study case to validate the proposed method. The urban flood forecasting model is set up with the topographic data, the city map, the underground pipelines and land cover types, and two flood events are simulated with observed precipitation, one is interpolated from the rain gauges data, and another is estimated by digital weather radar. The simulated results are compared with the investigated water depth, and the results show the model has very good performances. The results are further used for the flood risk warning simulation, and are very reasonable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Flood-Exposure Is Associated with Higher Prevalence of Child Undernutrition in Rural Eastern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose Manuel; Ranjan-Dash, Shishir; Mukhopadhyay, Alok; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2016-01-01

    Background: Child undernutrition and flooding are highly prevalent public health issues in Asia, yet epidemiological studies investigating this association are lacking. Methods: To investigate to what extent floods exacerbate poor nutritional status in children and identify most vulnerable groups, we conducted a population-based survey of children aged 6–59 months inhabiting flooded and non-flooded communities of the Jagatsinghpur district, Odisha (India), one year after large floods in 2008. Anthropometric measurements on 879 children and child, parental and household level variables were collected through face-to-face interviews in September 2009. The association between flooding and the prevalence of wasting, stunting and underweight was examined using weighted multivariate logistic regression for children inhabiting communities exposed solely to floods in 2008 and those communities repeatedly flooded (2006 and 2008) controlling for parental education and other relevant variables. We examined the influence of age on this association. Propensity score matching was conducted to test the robustness of our findings. Results: The prevalence of wasting among children flooded in 2006 and 2008 was 51.6%, 41.4% in those flooded only in 2008, and 21.2% in children inhabiting non-flooded communities. Adjusting by confounders, the increased prevalence relative to non-flooded children in the exposed groups were 2.30 (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR); 95% CI: 1.86, 2.85) and 1.94 (95% CI: 1.43, 2.63), respectively. Among repeatedly flooded communities, cases of severe wasting in children were 3.37 times more prevalent than for children inhabiting in those non-flooded (95% CI: 2.34, 4.86) and nearly twice more prevalent relative to those flooded only once. Those children younger than one year during previous floods in 2006 showed the largest difference in prevalence of wasting compared to their non-flooded counterparts (aPR: 4.01; 95% CI: 1.51, 10.63). Results were robust to

  16. Flood-Ring Formation and Root Development in Response to Experimental Flooding of Young Quercus robur Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copini, Paul; den Ouden, Jan; Robert, Elisabeth M. R.; Tardif, Jacques C.; Loesberg, Walter A.; Goudzwaard, Leo; Sass-Klaassen, Ute

    2016-01-01

    Spring flooding in riparian forests can cause significant reductions in earlywood-vessel size in submerged stem parts of ring-porous tree species, leading to the presence of ‘flood rings’ that can be used as a proxy to reconstruct past flooding events, potentially over millennia. The mechanism of flood-ring formation and the relation with timing and duration of flooding are still to be elucidated. In this study, we experimentally flooded 4-year-old Quercus robur trees at three spring phenophases (late bud dormancy, budswell, and internode expansion) and over different flooding durations (2, 4, and 6 weeks) to a stem height of 50 cm. The effect of flooding on root and vessel development was assessed immediately after the flooding treatment and at the end of the growing season. Ring width and earlywood-vessel size and density were measured at 25- and 75-cm stem height and collapsed vessels were recorded. Stem flooding inhibited earlywood-vessel development in flooded stem parts. In addition, flooding upon budswell and internode expansion led to collapsed earlywood vessels below the water level. At the end of the growing season, mean earlywood-vessel size in the flooded stem parts (upon budswell and internode expansion) was always reduced by approximately 50% compared to non-flooded stem parts and 55% compared to control trees. This reduction was already present 2 weeks after flooding and occurred independent of flooding duration. Stem and root flooding were associated with significant root dieback after 4 and 6 weeks and mean radial growth was always reduced with increasing flooding duration. By comparing stem and root flooding, we conclude that flood rings only occur after stem flooding. As earlywood-vessel development was hampered during flooding, a considerable number of narrow earlywood vessels present later in the season, must have been formed after the actual flooding events. Our study indicates that root dieback, together with strongly reduced hydraulic

  17. Lightning activity, rainfall and flash flooding – occasional or interrelated events? A case study in the island of Crete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Koutroulis

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The majority of cyclones passing over Crete in late autumn to early winter originate from southwest, west and northwest and are of varying size and intensity. A number of these cyclones cause flash floods. The present study reports the possible relationships between lighting activity and high precipitation related to flash flood events. In this study an attempt was made to correlate the lightning number and location, recorded by the ZEUS lightning detection system, with the rainfall characteristics for sixteen rain events (4 flood and 12 non-flood events on the island of Crete, during the period 2008–2009. Spatiotemporal analysis of rain and rain rate with flash count was performed with respect to distance (radius of flashes from raingauge location at various temporal scales, in order to examine the correlation of accumulated rainfall and lightning activity. The maximum attained statistical significant correlation was obtained within a circular area of an average radius of 15 km around the raingauge, and an average time lag of flash count prior precipitation accumulation of 15 min. The maximum correlation between the lightning and rainfall data is obtained for shorter time lags for the flood events (15 min than the non-flood events (25 min, that could reflect the faster propagation of flood triggering storms due to high convective activity. Results show increased lightning activity occurring during flood triggering storms, by an average of four times higher. Furthermore, there is evidence that the number of flashes that occur during a precipitation event is related to precipitation depth when the latter is adequate to produce a flood event. Differences between flood and non-flood producing storms need to be further assessed by analyzing more independent parameters, including the synoptic conditions and dominant flash flood hydrological generating processes.

  18. Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

    2017-10-01

    Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

  19. Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Luke

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP. Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1 legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2 flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1 standing water depths following the flood, (2 the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3 pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating

  20. Flood Impacts on People: from Hazard to Risk Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, C.; Castelli, F.

    2017-12-01

    The mitigation of adverse consequences of floods on people is crucial for civil protection and public authorities. According to several studies, in the developed countries the majority of flood-related fatalities occurs due to inappropriate high risk behaviours such as driving and walking in floodwaters. In this work both the loss of stability of vehicles and pedestrians in floodwaters are analysed. Flood hazard is evaluated, based on (i) a 2D inundation model of an urban area, (ii) 3D hydrodynamic simulations of water flows around vehicles and human body and (iii) a dimensional analysis of experimental activity. Exposure and vulnerability of vehicles and population are assessed exploiting several sources of open GIS data in order to produce risk maps for a testing case study. The results show that a significant hazard to vehicles and pedestrians exists in the study area. Particularly high is the hazard to vehicles, which are likely to be swept away by flood flow, possibly aggravate damages to structures and infrastructures and locally alter the flood propagation. Exposure and vulnerability analysis identifies some structures such as schools and public facilities, which may attract several people. Moreover, some shopping facilities in the area, which attract both vehicular and pedestrians' circulation are located in the highest flood hazard zone.The application of the method demonstrates that, at municipal level, such risk maps can support civil defence strategies and education to active citizenship, thus contributing to flood impact reduction to population.

  1. Introduction to SNPP/VIIRS Flood Mapping Software Version 1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S.; Sun, D.; Goldberg, M.; Sjoberg, W.; Santek, D.; Hoffman, J.

    2017-12-01

    Near real-time satellite-derived flood maps are invaluable to river forecasters and decision-makers for disaster monitoring and relief efforts. With support from the JPSS (Joint Polar Satellite System) Proving Ground and Risk Reduction (PGRR) Program, flood detection software has been developed using Suomi-NPP/VIIRS (Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership/Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) imagery to automatically generate near real-time flood maps for National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFC) in the USA. The software, which is called VIIRS NOAA GMU Flood Version 1.0 (hereafter referred to as VNG Flood V1.0), consists of a series of algorithms that include water detection, cloud shadow removal, terrain shadow removal, minor flood detection, water fraction retrieval, and floodwater determination. The software is designed for flood detection in any land region between 80°S and 80°N, and it has been running routinely with direct broadcast SNPP/VIIRS data at the Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW/SSEC) and the Geographic Information Network of Alaska at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks (UAF/GINA) since 2014. Near real-time flood maps are distributed via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM), reviewed by river forecasters in AWIPS-II (the second generation of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) and applied in flood operations. Initial feedback from operational forecasters on the product accuracy and performance has been largely positive. The software capability has also been extended to areas outside of the USA via a case-driven mode to detect major floods all over the world. Offline validation efforts include the visual inspection of over 10,000 VIIRS false-color composite images, an inter-comparison with MODIS automatic flood products and a quantitative evaluation using Landsat imagery. The steady performance from the 3-year routine process and the promising validation results

  2. A European Flood Database: facilitating comprehensive flood research beyond administrative boundaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hall

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The current work addresses one of the key building blocks towards an improved understanding of flood processes and associated changes in flood characteristics and regimes in Europe: the development of a comprehensive, extensive European flood database. The presented work results from ongoing cross-border research collaborations initiated with data collection and joint interpretation in mind. A detailed account of the current state, characteristics and spatial and temporal coverage of the European Flood Database, is presented. At this stage, the hydrological data collection is still growing and consists at this time of annual maximum and daily mean discharge series, from over 7000 hydrometric stations of various data series lengths. Moreover, the database currently comprises data from over 50 different data sources. The time series have been obtained from different national and regional data sources in a collaborative effort of a joint European flood research agreement based on the exchange of data, models and expertise, and from existing international data collections and open source websites. These ongoing efforts are contributing to advancing the understanding of regional flood processes beyond individual country boundaries and to a more coherent flood research in Europe.

  3. ISTSOS, SENSOR OBSERVATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: A REAL CASE APPLICATION OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR FLOOD PROTECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cannata

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available istSOS (Istituto scienze della Terra Sensor Observation Service is an implementation of the Sensor Observation Service standard from Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC. The development of istSOS started in 2009 in order to provide a simple implementation of the Sensor Observation Service (SOS standard for the management, provision and integration of hydro-meteorological data collected in Canton Ticino (Southern Switzerland. istSOS is entirely written in Python and is based on reliable open source software like PostgreSQL/PostGIS and Apache/mod_wsgi. The authors during this presentation want to illustrate the latest software enhancements together with a real case in a production environment. Latest software enhancement includes the development of a RESTful service and of a Web-based graphical user interface that allows hydrologists a better interaction with measurements. This includes the ability of new services creation, addition of new sensors and relative metadata, visualization and manipulation of stored observations, registration of new measures and setting of system properties like observable properties and data quality codes. The study will show a real case application of the system for the provision of data to interregional partners and to a hydrological model for lake level forecasting and flooding hazard assessment. The hydrological model uses a combination of WPS (Web Processing Service and SOS for the generation of model input data. This system is linked with a dedicated geo-portal used by the civil protection for the management, alert and protection of population and assets of the Locarno area (Verbano Lake flooding. Practical considerations and technical issues will be presented and discussed.

  4. Flood occurrence and adjustment strategies in Oyo State: a case ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Floods are among the most dramatic forms of interaction between man and his environment, and they emphasize the limitations of man in his attempt to control the sheer force of nature. When they occur, whether in the developed or the developing world, they are always associated with heavy losses of life and property, ...

  5. Floods in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follansbee, Robert; Sawyer, Leon R.

    1948-01-01

    The first records of floods in Colorado antedated the settlement of the State by about 30 years. These were records of floods on the Arkansas and Republican Rivers in 1826. Other floods noted by traders, hunters and emigrants, some of whom were on their way to the Far West, occurred in 1844 on the Arkansas River, and by inference on the South Platte River. Other early floods were those on the Purgatoire, the Lower Arkansas, and the San Juan Rivers about 1859. The most serious flood since settlement began was that on the Arkansas River during June 1921, which caused the loss of about 100 lives and an estimated property loss of $19,000,000. Many floods of lesser magnitude have occurred, and some of these have caused loss of life and very considerable property damage. Topography is the chief factor in determining the location of storms and resulting floods. These occur most frequently on the eastern slope of the Front Range. In the mountains farther west precipitation is insufficient to cause floods except during periods of melting snow, in June. In the southwestern part of the State, where precipitation during periods of melting snow is insufficient to cause floods, the severest floods yet experienced resulted from heavy rains in September 1909 and October 1911. In the eastern foothills region, usually below an altitude of about 7,500 feet and extending for a distance of about 50 miles east of the mountains, is a zone subject to rainfalls of great intensity known as cloudbursts. These cloudbursts are of short duration and are confined to very small areas. At times the intensity is so great as to make breathing difficult for those exposed to a storm. The areas of intense rainfall are so small that Weather Bureau precipitation stations have not been located in them. Local residents, being cloudburst conscious, frequently measure the rainfall in receptacles in their yards, and such records constitute the only source of information regarding the intensity. A flood

  6. Effective delineation of urban flooded areas based on aerial ortho-photo imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Guindon, Bert; Raymond, Don; Hong, Gang

    2016-10-01

    The combination of rapid global urban growth and climate change has resulted in increased occurrence of major urban flood events across the globe. The distribution of flooded area is one of the key information layers for applications of emergency planning and response management. While SAR systems and technologies have been widely used for flood area delineation, radar images suffer from range ambiguities arising from corner reflection effects and shadowing in dense urban settings. A new mapping framework is proposed for the extraction and quantification of flood extent based on aerial optical multi-spectral imagery and ancillary data. This involves first mapping of flood areas directly visible to the sensor. Subsequently, the complete area of submergence is estimated from this initial mapping and inference techniques based on baseline data such as land cover and GIS information such as available digital elevation models. The methodology has been tested and proven effective using aerial photography for the case of the 2013 flood in Calgary, Canada.

  7. Sustainable flood memories, lay knowledges and the development of community resilience to future flood risk

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    McEwen Lindsey

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Shifts to devolved flood risk management in the UK pose questions about how the changing role of floodplain residents in community-led adaptation planning can be supported and strengthened. This paper shares insights from an interdisciplinary research project that has proposed the concept of ‘sustainable flood memory’ in the context of effective flood risk management. The research aimed to increase understanding of whether and how flood memories from the UK Summer 2007 extreme floods provide a platform for developing lay knowledges and flood resilience. The project investigated what factors link flood memory and lay knowledges of flooding, and how these connect and disconnect during and after flood events. In particular, and relation to flood governance directions, we sought to explore how such memories might play a part in individual and community resilience. The research presented here explores some key themes drawn from semi-structured interviews with floodplain residents with recent flood experiences in contrasting demographic and physical settings in the lower River Severn catchment. These include changing practices in making flood memories and materialising flood knowledge and the roles of active remembering and active forgetting.

  8. Flooding and Implosive Therapy with Situation Specific and Non-Situation Specific Anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudewyns, Patrick A.

    Two inpatients, one with a circumscribed phobia for dentists and dental offices and another who had been diagnosed as suffering from an anxiety neurosis, were treated with a flooding procedure. A simple flooding technique which dealt with only the symptom contingent cues was sufficient to change behavior in the former case, but for the relatively…

  9. Methodological Framework for Analysing Cascading Effects from Flood Events: The Case of Sukhumvit Area, Bangkok, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geofrey Hilly

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Impacts from floods in urban areas can be diverse and wide ranging. These can include the loss of human life, infrastructure and property damages, as well as other kinds of nuisance and inconvenience to urban life. Hence, the ability to identify and quantify wider ranging effects from floods is of the utmost importance to urban flood managers and infrastructure operators. The present work provides a contribution in this direction and describes a methodological framework for analysing cascading effects from floods that has been applied for the Sukhumvit area in Bangkok (Thailand. It demonstrates that the effects from floods can be much broader in their reach and magnitude than the sole impacts incurred from direct and immediate losses. In Sukhumvit, these include loss of critical services, assets and goods, traffic congestion and delays in transportation, loss of business and income, disturbances and discomfort to the residents, and all these can be traced with the careful analysis of cascading effects. The present work explored the use of different visualization options to present the findings. These include a casual loop diagram, a HAZUR resilience map, a tree diagram and GIS maps.

  10. Social sensing of floods in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, Rudy; Boulton, Chris A; Shotton, Humphrey; Williams, Hywel T P

    2018-01-01

    "Social sensing" is a form of crowd-sourcing that involves systematic analysis of digital communications to detect real-world events. Here we consider the use of social sensing for observing natural hazards. In particular, we present a case study that uses data from a popular social media platform (Twitter) to detect and locate flood events in the UK. In order to improve data quality we apply a number of filters (timezone, simple text filters and a naive Bayes 'relevance' filter) to the data. We then use place names in the user profile and message text to infer the location of the tweets. These two steps remove most of the irrelevant tweets and yield orders of magnitude more located tweets than we have by relying on geo-tagged data. We demonstrate that high resolution social sensing of floods is feasible and we can produce high-quality historical and real-time maps of floods using Twitter.

  11. Prehistoric floods on the Tennessee River—Assessing the use of stratigraphic records of past floods for improved flood-frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, Jim E.

    2017-06-14

    Stratigraphic analysis, coupled with geochronologic techniques, indicates that a rich history of large Tennessee River floods is preserved in the Tennessee River Gorge area. Deposits of flood sediment from the 1867 peak discharge of record (460,000 cubic feet per second at Chattanooga, Tennessee) are preserved at many locations throughout the study area at sites with flood-sediment accumulation. Small exposures at two boulder overhangs reveal evidence of three to four other floods similar in size, or larger, than the 1867 flood in the last 3,000 years—one possibly as much or more than 50 percent larger. Records of floods also are preserved in stratigraphic sections at the mouth of the gorge at Williams Island and near Eaves Ferry, about 70 river miles upstream of the gorge. These stratigraphic records may extend as far back as about 9,000 years ago, giving a long history of Tennessee River floods. Although more evidence is needed to confirm these findings, a more in-depth comprehensive paleoflood study is feasible for the Tennessee River.

  12. Learning from and for rare floods in Dresden – how public officials interpret damage simulation results at the building type level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hutter Gerard

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Public officials in Dresden are concerned about learning from and for rare flood events like the Elbe river flood in August 2002. This is interesting because research on individual as well as organizational learning from rare events indicates that this kind of learning faces significant difficulties (e.g., overestimation of rare events for decision-making based on “emotionalized event experience”. Up to now, only little is known what and how public officials in Dresden specifically learn from and for rare floods. Therefore, the paper follows an exploratory purpose in line with principles of qualitative social research. Firstly, the paper explores dealing with rare floods with reference to a conceptual framework that highlights relations between regulative, normative, and cognitive institutions on the one hand and learning of public officials on the other. Secondly, it adopts a single case study design in Dresden with embedded sub-cases that are defined with reference to organizations of FRM. The case study shows, among others, that regulations like the Floods Directive are important for justifying FRM with regard to rare flood events which is less obvious than it sounds. However, public officials display different interpretations of the term “rare flood event”, for instance, in the context of analysing the consequences of floods on the building stock. Furthermore, the case study findings indicate that public officials may follow alternative approaches to sustain commitment in the context of rare flood events (systematic versus pragmatic approach.

  13. Floods in Serbia in the 1999-2009 period: Hydrological analysis and flood protection measures

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    Milanović Ana

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The review on greatest floods recorded in Vojvodina and central Serbia within the period from 1999 to 2009 is given in this paper. For 13 hydrological stations, that recorded the greatest floods for the present period, probability of occurrence of these floods has been accomplished. Based on analysis of time series of discharge and water level maximum, performed by applying probability theory and mathematical statistics, and calculated theoretical probability distribution function of floods, probability of occurrence of flood has been obtained. Most often the best agreement with the empirical distribution function had a Log-Pearson III, Pearson III distribution. These results can be used for dimensioning of hydro-technical objects for flood protection. The most significant causes for floods recorded in this period were melting of snow and intensive rainfall. In this paper the current situation of flood protection and future development of flood protection measures were also presented. .

  14. Evaluation of levee setbacks for flood-loss reduction, Middle Mississippi River, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dierauer, Jennifer; Pinter, Nicholas; Remo, Jonathan W. F.

    2012-07-01

    SummaryOne-dimensional hydraulic modeling and flood-loss modeling were used to test the effectiveness of levee setbacks for flood-loss reduction along the Middle Mississippi River (MMR). Four levee scenarios were assessed: (1) the present-day levee configuration, (2) a 1000 m levee setback, (3) a 1500 m levee setback, and (4) an optimized setback configuration. Flood losses were estimated using FEMA's Hazus-MH (Hazards US Multi-Hazard) loss-estimation software on a structure-by-structure basis for a range of floods from the 2- to the 500-year events. These flood-loss estimates were combined with a levee-reliability model to calculate probability-weighted damage estimates. In the simplest case, the levee setback scenarios tested here reduced flood losses compared to current conditions for large, infrequent flooding events but increased flood losses for smaller, more frequent flood events. These increases occurred because levee protection was removed for some of the existing structures. When combined with buyouts of unprotected structures, levee setbacks reduced flood losses for all recurrence intervals. The "optimized" levee setback scenario, involving a levee configuration manually planned to protect existing high-value infrastructure, reduced damages with or without buyouts. This research shows that levee setbacks in combination with buyouts are an economically viable approach for flood-risk reduction along the study reach and likely elsewhere where levees are widely employed for flood control. Designing a levee setback around existing high-value infrastructure can maximize the benefit of the setback while simultaneously minimizing the costs. The optimized levee setback scenario analyzed here produced payback periods (costs divided by benefits) of less than 12 years. With many aging levees failing current inspections across the US, and flood losses spiraling up over time, levee setbacks are a viable solution for reducing flood exposure and flood levels.

  15. A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. V. Martina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyses using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability.

  16. Spatial coherence of flood-rich and flood-poor periods across Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, Bruno; Dung, Nguyen Viet; Apel, Heiko; Gerlitz, Lars; Schröter, Kai; Steirou, Eva; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

    2018-04-01

    Despite its societal relevance, the question whether fluctuations in flood occurrence or magnitude are coherent in space has hardly been addressed in quantitative terms. We investigate this question for Germany by analysing fluctuations in annual maximum series (AMS) values at 68 discharge gauges for the common time period 1932-2005. We find remarkable spatial coherence across Germany given its different flood regimes. For example, there is a tendency that flood-rich/-poor years in sub-catchments of the Rhine basin, which are dominated by winter floods, coincide with flood-rich/-poor years in the southern sub-catchments of the Danube basin, which have their dominant flood season in summer. Our findings indicate that coherence is caused rather by persistence in catchment wetness than by persistent periods of higher/lower event precipitation. Further, we propose to differentiate between event-type and non-event-type coherence. There are quite a number of hydrological years with considerable non-event-type coherence, i.e. AMS values of the 68 gauges are spread out through the year but in the same magnitude range. Years with extreme flooding tend to be of event-type and non-coherent, i.e. there is at least one precipitation event that affects many catchments to various degree. Although spatial coherence is a remarkable phenomenon, and large-scale flooding across Germany can lead to severe situations, extreme magnitudes across the whole country within one event or within one year were not observed in the investigated period.

  17. Sex-specific responses to winter flooding, spring waterlogging and post-flooding recovery in Populus deltoides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Ling-Feng; Yang, Fan; Han, Chun-Yu; Pu, Yu-Jin; Ding, Yang; Zhang, Li-Jia

    2017-05-31

    Winter flooding events are common in some rivers and streams due to dam constructions, and flooding and waterlogging inhibit the growth of trees in riparian zones. This study investigated sex-specific morphological, physiological and ultrastructural responses to various durations of winter flooding and spring waterlogging stresses, and post-flooding recovery characteristics in Populus deltoides. There were no significant differences in the morphological, ultrastructural and the majority of physiological traits in trees subjected to medium and severe winter flooding stresses, suggesting that males and females of P. deltoides were winter flooding tolerant, and insensitive to winter flooding duration. Males were more tolerant to winter flooding stress in terms of photosynthesis and chlorophyll fluorescence than females. Females displayed greater oxidative damage due to flooding stress than males. Males developed more efficient antioxidant enzymatic systems to control reactive oxygen species. Both sexes had similarly strong post-flooding recovery capabilities in terms of plant growth, and physiological and ultrastructural parameters. However, Males had better recovery capabilities in terms of pigment content. These results increase the understanding of poplars's adaptation to winter flooding stress. They also elucidate sex-specific differences in response to flooding stress during the dormant season, and during post-flooding recovery periods.

  18. Distributional Effects of EU Flood Risk Management and the Law : The Netherlands, Flanders and France as case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn-Hoekveld, Willemijn

    2018-01-01

    Flood risk management is a policy field in which the distribution of burdens and benefits plays an important role. As flood risks are distributed unequally among the members of society, people in risk areas benefit more from flood risk management than people living in a relatively ‘risk-free’ area.

  19. Flood damage: a model for consistent, complete and multipurpose scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Menoni

    2016-12-01

    implemented in ex post damage assessments, also with the objective of better programming financial resources that will be needed for these types of events in the future. On the other hand, integrated interpretations of flood events are fundamental to adapting and optimizing flood mitigation strategies on the basis of thorough forensic investigation of each event, as corroborated by the implementation of the model in a case study.

  20. Associations between STAT Gene Polymorphisms and Psoriasis in Northeastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jing; Li, Yuzhen; Sun, Donglin

    2017-01-01

    Psoriasis is an autoimmune disease with genetic and environmental factors. Based on the roles of STATs (signaling transducers and activators of transcription) in autoimmune diseases, it is assumed STAT gene polymorphisms are associated with psoriasis. To study the association between STAT gene polymorphisms and psoriasis in the northeastern Chinese population. Eight single-nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped: rs2293152, rs3816769, rs4796793, and rs744166 in STAT3, rs7574865 and rs3024866 in STAT4, and rs324011 and rs3024974 in STAT6, using SNaPshot methods. The genotype, allele, and haplotype frequencies were compared between 400 psoriasis patients and 398 healthy individuals in northeastern China. rs744166GG in STAT3 and rs7574865TT in STAT4 had higher frequencies in the case than the control group, suggesting these 2 genotypes increase the susceptibility to psoriasis (p < 0.05). Three haplotypes (H3, H6, and H7) were found to be associated with psoriasis in the study (p < 0.05). These results indicate a role of STAT genes in the pathogenesis of psoriasis. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  1. Prediction of Flood Warning in Taiwan Using Nonlinear SVM with Simulated Annealing Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C.

    2013-12-01

    The issue of the floods is important in Taiwan. It is because the narrow and high topography of the island make lots of rivers steep in Taiwan. The tropical depression likes typhoon always causes rivers to flood. Prediction of river flow under the extreme rainfall circumstances is important for government to announce the warning of flood. Every time typhoon passed through Taiwan, there were always floods along some rivers. The warning is classified to three levels according to the warning water levels in Taiwan. The propose of this study is to predict the level of floods warning from the information of precipitation, rainfall duration and slope of riverbed. To classify the level of floods warning by the above-mentioned information and modeling the problems, a machine learning model, nonlinear Support vector machine (SVM), is formulated to classify the level of floods warning. In addition, simulated annealing (SA), a probabilistic heuristic algorithm, is used to determine the optimal parameter of the SVM model. A case study of flooding-trend rivers of different gradients in Taiwan is conducted. The contribution of this SVM model with simulated annealing is capable of making efficient announcement for flood warning and keeping the danger of flood from residents along the rivers.

  2. Characterisation of seasonal flood types according to timescales in mixed probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Svenja; Schumann, Andreas; Schulte, Markus

    2016-08-01

    When flood statistics are based on annual maximum series (AMS), the sample often contains flood peaks, which differ in their genesis. If the ratios among event types change over the range of observations, the extrapolation of a probability distribution function (pdf) can be dominated by a majority of events that belong to a certain flood type. If this type is not typical for extraordinarily large extremes, such an extrapolation of the pdf is misleading. To avoid this breach of the assumption of homogeneity, seasonal models were developed that differ between winter and summer floods. We show that a distinction between summer and winter floods is not always sufficient if seasonal series include events with different geneses. Here, we differentiate floods by their timescales into groups of long and short events. A statistical method for such a distinction of events is presented. To demonstrate their applicability, timescales for winter and summer floods in a German river basin were estimated. It is shown that summer floods can be separated into two main groups, but in our study region, the sample of winter floods consists of at least three different flood types. The pdfs of the two groups of summer floods are combined via a new mixing model. This model considers that information about parallel events that uses their maximum values only is incomplete because some of the realisations are overlaid. A statistical method resulting in an amendment of statistical parameters is proposed. The application in a German case study demonstrates the advantages of the new model, with specific emphasis on flood types.

  3. Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves

  4. Return period assessment of urban pluvial floods through modelling of rainfall–flood response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tuyls, Damian Murla; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

    2018-01-01

    Intense rainfall in urban areas can often generate severe flood impacts. Consequently, it is crucial to design systems to minimize potential flood damages. Traditional, simple design of urban drainage systems assumes agreement between rainfall return period and its consequent flood return period......; however, this does not always apply. Hydraulic infrastructures found in urban drainage systems can increase system heterogeneity and perturb the impact of severe rainfall response. In this study, a surface flood return period assessment was carried out at Lystrup (Denmark), which has received the impact...... of flooding in recent years. A 35 years' rainfall dataset together with a coupled 1D/2D surface and network model was used to analyse and assess flood return period response. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall and flood return periods indicating that linear rainfall–runoff relationships will...

  5. Flood Risk Management in the People’s Republic of China: Learning to Live with Flood Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)

    2012-01-01

    This publication presents a shift in the People’s Republic of China from flood control depending on structural measures to integrated flood management using both structural and non-structural measures. The core of the new concept of integrated flood management is flood risk management. Flood risk management is based on an analysis of flood hazard, exposure to flood hazard, and vulnerability of people and property to danger. It is recommended that people learn to live with flood risks, gaining...

  6. Influence of spreading urbanization in flood areas on flood damage in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komac, B; Zorn, M; Natek, K

    2008-01-01

    Damage caused by natural disasters in Slovenia is frequently linked to the ignoring of natural factors in spatial planning. Historically, the construction of buildings and settlements avoided dangerous flood areas, but later we see increasing construction in dangerous areas. During the floods in 1990, the most affected buildings were located on ill-considered locations, and the majority was built in more recent times. A similar situation occurred during the floods of September 2007. Comparing the effects of these floods, we determined that damage was always greater due to the urbanization of flood areas. This process furthermore increasingly limits the 'manoeuvring space' for water management authorities, who due to the torrential nature of Slovenia's rivers can not ensure the required level of safety from flooding for unsuitably located settlements and infrastructure. Every year, the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia issues more than one thousand permits for interventions in areas that affect the water regime, and through decrees the government allows construction in riparian zones, which is supposedly forbidden by the Law on Water. If we do not take measures with more suitable policies for spatial planning, we will no long have the possibility in future to reduce the negative consequences of floods. Given that torrential floods strike certain Slovene regions every three years on average and that larger floods occur at least once a decade, it is senseless to lay the blame on climate change.

  7. FloodProBE: technologies for improved safety of the built environment in relation to flood events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ree, C.C.D.F. van; Van, M.A.; Heilemann, K.; Morris, M.W.; Royet, P.; Zevenbergen, C.

    2011-01-01

    The FloodProBE project started as a FP7 research project in November 2009. Floods, together with wind related storms, are considered the major natural hazard in the EU in terms of risk to people and assets. In order to adapt urban areas (in river and coastal zones) to prevent flooding or to be better prepared for floods, decision makers need to determine how to upgrade flood defences and increasing flood resilience of protected buildings and critical infrastructure (power supplies, communications, water, transport, etc.) and assess the expected risk reduction from these measures. The aim of the FloodProBE-project is to improve knowledge on flood resilience and flood protection performance for balancing investments in flood risk management in urban areas. To this end, technologies, methods and tools for assessment purposes and for the adaptation of new and existing buildings and critical infrastructure are developed, tested and disseminated. Three priority areas are addressed by FloodProBE. These are: (i) vulnerability of critical infrastructure and high-density value assets including direct and indirect damage, (ii) the assessment and reliability of urban flood defences including the use of geophysical methods and remote sensing techniques and (iii) concepts and technologies for upgrading weak links in flood defences as well as construction technologies for flood proofing buildings and infrastructure networks to increase the flood resilience of the urban system. The primary impact of FloodProBE in advancing knowledge in these areas is an increase in the cost-effectiveness (i.e. performance) of new and existing flood protection structures and flood resilience measures.

  8. A new methodology for dynamic modelling of health risks arising from wastewater influenced urban flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Claus; Mark, Ole; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Hammond, Michael; Khan, David M.; Erichsen, Anders; Dorrit Enevoldsen, Ann; Heinicke, Gerald; Helwigh, Birgitte

    2015-04-01

    flood water, based on either measured waste water pathogen concentrations or on assumptions regarding the prevalence of infections in the population. The exposure (dosage) to pathogens was estimated by multiplying the concentration with literature values for the ingestion of water for different exposure groups (e.g. children, adults). The probability of infection was determined by applying dose response relations and MonteCarlo simulation. The methodology is demonstrated on two cases, i.e one case from a developing country with poor sanitation and one case from a developed country, where climate adaptation is the main issue: The risk of cholera in the City of Dhaka, Bangladesh during a flood event 2004, and the risk of bacterial and viral infections of during a flood event in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2011. Results PIC The historical flood events in Dhaka (2004) and Copenhagen (2011) were successfully modelled. The urban flood model was successfully coupled to QMRA. An example of the results of the quantitative microbial risk assessment given as the average estimated risk of cholera infection for children below 5 years living in slum areas in Dhaka is shown in the figure. Similarly, the risk of infection during the flood event in Copenhagen will be presented in the article. Conclusions We have developed a methodology for the dynamic modeling of the risk of infection during waste water influenced urban flooding. The outcome of the modelling exercise indicates that direct contact with polluted flood water is a likely route of transmission of cholera in Dhaka, and bacterial and viral infectious diseases in Copenhagen. It demonstrates the applicability and the potential for linking urban flood models with QMRA in order to identify interventions to reduce the burden of disease on the population in Dhaka City and Copenhagen.

  9. Flood Finder: Mobile-based automated water level estimation and mapping during floods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pongsiriyaporn, B; Jariyavajee, C; Laoharawee, N; Narkthong, N; Pitichat, T; Goldin, S E

    2014-01-01

    Every year, Southeast Asia faces numerous flooding disasters, resulting in very high human and economic loss. Responding to a sudden flood is difficult due to the lack of accurate and up-to- date information about the incoming water status. We have developed a mobile application called Flood Finder to solve this problem. Flood Finder allows smartphone users to measure, share and search for water level information at specified locations. The application uses image processing to compute the water level from a photo taken by users. The photo must be of a known reference object with a standard size. These water levels are more reliable and consistent than human estimates since they are derived from an algorithmic measuring function. Flood Finder uploads water level readings to the server, where they can be searched and mapped by other users via the mobile phone app or standard browsers. Given the widespread availability of smartphones in Asia, Flood Finder can provide more accurate and up-to-date information for better preparation for a flood disaster as well as life safety and property protection

  10. Communication and flood risk awareness in the framework of DRIHM project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Gilabert, Joan; Marcos, Raül; Parodi, Antonio; Rebora, Nicola; Garrote, Luís

    2014-05-01

    One of the main objectives of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 of the United Nations is to increase public awareness so as to understand the risks, vulnerabilities and disaster reduction globally. In the case of floods they are a major hazard in Spain. In the last 30 years alone, more than 300 flood and flash-flood events have been recorded. Usually these events produce minor damages and, occasionally, some deaths, usually due to imprudent behavior. In this context, improvements in the forecast and warning systems, the communication process and for the population to have a better knowledge using new technologies are welcome. The starting point of this communication is the analysis of the treatment of flood events made by the press, the risk perception of the population, as well as the communication tools and protocols of Civil Protection and Water Catalan Agency (ACA) in Catalonia (NE of Iberian Peninsula). Afterwards, the analysis of the application of new tools developed by the University of Barcelona, with specific emphasis on the collaboration with the population, is shown. La Rambla is an informative portal of flood prevention, where share knowledge and experiences with the population. It is also a historical flood site where everyone can contribute and participate by sending experiences, data, records, pictures and much more. In La Rambla we can find information such as flood prevention plans, acts, scientific vocabulary ... There are also sections on historical floods, photo galleries, quizzes, flood news, and much more. The blog will be also used as a platform to distribute post-event questionnaires in order to analyze social impact as well as the population behavior when faced with a flood. Besides this, social networks are some of the most important channels where warnings and flood risk situations can be communicated. In the case of Facebook and Twitter, we use the platforms as a warning channel, to have a simple monitoring of the event and

  11. Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, Maya K.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E.

    2017-06-01

    The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.

  12. Mechanical environmental transport of actinides and ¹³⁷Cs from an arid radioactive waste disposal site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Mathew S; Clark, Sue B; Morrison, Samuel S; Watrous, Matthew G; Olson, John E; Snyder, Darin C

    2015-10-01

    Aeolian and pluvial processes represent important mechanisms for the movement of actinides and fission products at the Earth's surface. Soil samples taken in the early 1970's near a Department of Energy radioactive waste disposal site (the Subsurface Disposal Area, SDA, located in southeastern Idaho) provide a case study for studying the mechanisms and characteristics of environmental actinide and (137)Cs transport in an arid environment. Multi-component mixing models suggest actinide contamination within 2.5 km of the SDA can be described by mixing between 2 distinct SDA end members and regional nuclear weapons fallout. The absence of chemical fractionation between (241)Am and (239+240)Pu with depth for samples beyond the northeastern corner and lack of (241)Am in-growth over time (due to (241)Pu decay) suggest mechanical transport and mixing of discrete contaminated particles under arid conditions. Occasional samples northeast of the SDA (the direction of the prevailing winds) contain anomalously high concentrations of Pu with (240)Pu/(239)Pu isotopic ratios statistically identical to those in the northeastern corner. Taken together, these data suggest flooding resulted in mechanical transport of contaminated particles into the area between the SDA and a flood containment dike in the northeastern corner, following which subsequent contamination spreading in the northeastern direction resulted from wind transport of discrete particles. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Linking flood peak, flood volume and inundation extent: a DEM-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebolho, Cédric; Furusho-Percot, Carina; Blaquière, Simon; Brettschneider, Marco; Andréassian, Vazken

    2017-04-01

    model showed a 0.51 median Fit (intersection of simulated and observed areas divided by the union of the two, Bates and De Roo, 2000) and a 0.74 maximum. Obviously, this approach is quite rough, and would require testing on events of homogeneous return periods (which is not the case for now). The next steps in the test and the development of our method include the use of the AIGA distributed model to simulate past-events hydrographs, the search for a new way to automatically approach bankfull flow and the integration of the results in our model to build dynamic maps of the flood. References Arnaud, P., Eglin, Y., Janet, B., and Payrastre, O. (2013). Notice utilisateur : bases de données SHYREG-Débit. Méthode - Performances - Limites. Bates, P. D. and De Roo, A. P. J. (2000). A simple raster-based model for flood inundation simulation. Journal of Hydrology, 236(1-2):54-77. Mailhol, J. (1980). Pour une approche plus réaliste du temps caractéristique de crues des bassins versants. In Actes du Colloque d'Oxford, volume 129, pages 229-237, Oxford. IAHS-AISH.

  14. Gauging Flash-Floods: Automated Measurement of Flood Events in Mountain Torrents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liechti, Katharina; Boss, Stefan; Fritschi, Bruno; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2017-04-01

    Rating curves contain uncertainties, especially in their upper range of higher discharge. This is due to more uncertainties in the measurements and also the typically lower number of measurements of high discharge events. However, it is the upper part of a rating curve that is of interest if it comes to dimensioning protection measures against floods and flash floods. For small municipalities who plan mitigation measures like a dam for protection against flash floods of small mountain torrent a rating curve as accurate as possible can be of great interest. It helps to reduce costs that can be caused by both under- and overdimensioning of a protective structure. We therefore invented a mobile discharge measurement station that is set up to construct a rating curve for small turbulent mountain torrents. It operates with salt dilution method and works in its current setup up to about 10 m3/s. The salt is injected automatically to the torrent when an event of desired magnitude takes place. Further downstream a conductivity measuring sensor records the change in salt concentration of the stream water. This mechanism is guided by automatic continuous observation of radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and a water pressure sensor. Measurements at a first test site gave promising results. The system does event measurements independent of the time of day and day of the week. The measuring equipment at the field site is only activated in case of an event. Therefore it has a low power consumption and can be run by only two solar panels.

  15. The role of knowledge in greening flood protection. Lessons from the Dutch case study future Afsluitdijk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.K.H.; Mol, A.P.J.; Tatenhove, van J.; Otter, H.S.

    2014-01-01

    Greening flood protection (GFP) is an upcoming approach in coastal protection knowledge and policy. The central notion of this multifunctional concept is that natural processes, nature development and the dynamics of ecosystems are taken into account in realising flood protection. In practice,

  16. Distillation Column Flooding Predictor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George E. Dzyacky

    2010-11-23

    The Flooding Predictor™ is a patented advanced control technology proven in research at the Separations Research Program, University of Texas at Austin, to increase distillation column throughput by over 6%, while also increasing energy efficiency by 10%. The research was conducted under a U. S. Department of Energy Cooperative Agreement awarded to George Dzyacky of 2ndpoint, LLC. The Flooding Predictor™ works by detecting the incipient flood point and controlling the column closer to its actual hydraulic limit than historical practices have allowed. Further, the technology uses existing column instrumentation, meaning no additional refining infrastructure is required. Refiners often push distillation columns to maximize throughput, improve separation, or simply to achieve day-to-day optimization. Attempting to achieve such operating objectives is a tricky undertaking that can result in flooding. Operators and advanced control strategies alike rely on the conventional use of delta-pressure instrumentation to approximate the column’s approach to flood. But column delta-pressure is more an inference of the column’s approach to flood than it is an actual measurement of it. As a consequence, delta pressure limits are established conservatively in order to operate in a regime where the column is never expected to flood. As a result, there is much “left on the table” when operating in such a regime, i.e. the capacity difference between controlling the column to an upper delta-pressure limit and controlling it to the actual hydraulic limit. The Flooding Predictor™, an innovative pattern recognition technology, controls columns at their actual hydraulic limit, which research shows leads to a throughput increase of over 6%. Controlling closer to the hydraulic limit also permits operation in a sweet spot of increased energy-efficiency. In this region of increased column loading, the Flooding Predictor is able to exploit the benefits of higher liquid

  17. An interdisciplinary approach to identify adaptation strategies that enhance flood resilience and urban liveability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rogers, B. C.; Bertram, N.; Gunn, Alex

    This paper provides guidance on how to identify and design the most suitable climate adaptation strategies for enhancing the liveability and flood resilience of urban catchments. It presents findings from a case study of Elwood, a coastal Melbourne suburb regularly affected by flooding. The resea...

  18. Improving Flood Damage Assessment Models in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amadio, M.; Mysiak, J.; Carrera, L.; Koks, E.

    2015-12-01

    The use of Stage-Damage Curve (SDC) models is prevalent in ex-ante assessments of flood risk. To assess the potential damage of a flood event, SDCs describe a relation between water depth and the associated potential economic damage over land use. This relation is normally developed and calibrated through site-specific analysis based on ex-post damage observations. In some cases (e.g. Italy) SDCs are transferred from other countries, undermining the accuracy and reliability of simulation results. Against this background, we developed a refined SDC model for Northern Italy, underpinned by damage compensation records from a recent flood event. Our analysis considers both damage to physical assets and production losses from business interruptions. While the first is calculated based on land use information, production losses are measured through the spatial distribution of Gross Value Added (GVA). An additional component of the model assesses crop-specific agricultural losses as a function of flood seasonality. Our results show an overestimation of asset damage from non-calibrated SDC values up to a factor of 4.5 for tested land use categories. Furthermore, we estimate that production losses amount to around 6 per cent of the annual GVA. Also, maximum yield losses are less than a half of the amount predicted by the standard SDC methods.

  19. Statistics and Analysis of the Relations between Rainstorm Floods and Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baodeng Hou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The frequent occurrence of geophysical disasters under climate change has drawn Chinese scholars to pay their attention to disaster relations. If the occurrence sequence of disasters could be identified, long-term disaster forecast could be realized. Based on the Earth Degassing Effect (EDE which is valid, this paper took the magnitude, epicenter, and occurrence time of the earthquake, as well as the epicenter and occurrence time of the rainstorm floods as basic factors to establish an integrated model to study the correlation between rainstorm floods and earthquakes. 2461 severe earthquakes occurred in China or within 3000 km from China and the 169 heavy rainstorm floods occurred in China over the past 200+ years as the input data of the model. The computational results showed that although most of the rainstorm floods have nothing to do with the severe earthquakes from a statistical perspective, some floods might relate to earthquakes. This is especially true when the earthquakes happen in the vapor transmission zone where rainstorms lead to abundant water vapors. In this regard, earthquakes are more likely to cause big rainstorm floods. However, many cases of rainstorm floods could be found after severe earthquakes with a large extent of uncertainty.

  20. Urban pluvial flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

  1. FLOOD MENACE IN KADUNA METROPOLIS: IMPACTS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr A.B.Ahmed

    damage, causes of flooding, human response to flooding and severity of ... from moving out. Source of ... Man responds to flood hazards through adjustment, flood abatement ... action to minimize or ameliorate flood hazards; flood abatement.

  2. A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallozzi, Kyle J.

    Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further. A total of 211 total cases were identified and sub-divided into seven subcategories based on their convective morphology and meteorological characteristics. Heatmaps of event report frequency were created to extract spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns in SVR/FF event activity. Diurnal trends were examined from time series plots of tornado, hail, wind and flash flood/flood reports. Event-centered composites of environmental variables were created for each subcategory from 13 km RUC/RAP analyses. Representative cases studies were conducted for each subcategory. A "ring of fire" with the highest levels of SVR/FF event activity was noted across the central United States. SVR/FF events were least common in the Southeast, High Plains, and Northern Plains. Enhanced SVR/FF activity reflected contributions from synoptic events during the cool and shoulder seasons over the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Valleys, and MCS activity during the warm season over the lower Great Plains, and the Upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Results from the composite analyses indicated that relatively high values of CAPE, surface-500 hPa shear and precipitable water were observed for all subcategories. Case studies show that many high-end SVR/FF events featured slow-moving, or quasi

  3. Flood Hazards: Communicating Hydrology and Complexity to the Public

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, R. R.; Blanchard, S. F.; Mason, R. R.

    2010-12-01

    user specifies. In the future, with new GPS enabled cell-phones, notifications could be sent to users based on their proximity to flood hazards. Educational measures also should communicate the hydrologic underpinnings and uncertainties of the complex science of flood hydrology in an understandable manner to a non-technical public. Education can be especially beneficial and important for those in a policy-making role or those who find themselves in an area of potential flood hazards. Case studies, such as the fatal June 11, 2010 flash flood on the Little Missouri River in Arkansas, if presented in a way that the public will absorb, powerfully illustrate the importance of flood hazard awareness and the cost of living unaware. Additionally, such crucial points as the connection between the accuracy of flood-probability estimates and the density (and longevity) of the basic data sources (such as the USGS streamgage or the National Weather Service raingage networks) and the residual risks that both communities and individuals face have to continually be stressed to the general public and policy makers alike. In short, success in flood hazards communication (both prescriptive warnings and education) requires a fusion of the social sciences and hydrology.

  4. An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert

    2007-01-01

    land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM, topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flood direction. flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) spatially distributed hydrological models to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay thc input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to the users and decision-makers. Early results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events. Case studies of this experimental system are evaluated with surface runoff data and other river monitoring systems. such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory's "Surface Water Watch" array of river reaches that are measured daily via other satellite remote sensing data. A major outcome of this progress will be the availability of a global overview of flood alerts that should consequently improve the performance of Decision Support System. We expect these developments in utilization of satellite remote sensing technology to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building a cost-effective early warning system for data scarce and under-developed areas.

  5. Characterization of remarkable floods in France, a transdisciplinary approach applied on generalized floods of January 1910

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudou, Martin; Lang, Michel; Vinet, Freddy; Coeur, Denis

    2014-05-01

    The 2007 Flood Directive promotes the integration and valorization of historical and significant floods in flood risk management (Flood Directive Text, chapter II, and article 4). Taking into account extreme past floods analysis seems necessary in the mitigation process of vulnerability face to flooding risk. In France, this aspect of the Directive was carried out through the elaboration of Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) and the establishment of a 2000 floods list. From this first list, a sample of 176 floods, considered as remarkable has been selected. These floods were compiled in discussion with local authorities in charge of flood management (Lang et al., 2012) and have to be integrated in priority in local risk management policies. However, a consideration emerges about this classification: how a remarkable flood can be defined? According which criteria can it be considered as remarkable? To answer these questions, a methodology has been established by building an evaluation grid of remarkable floods in France. The primary objective of this grid is to analyze the remarkable flood's characteristics (hydrological and meteorological characteristics, sociological- political and economic impacts), and secondly to propose a classification of significant floods selected in the 2011 PFRA. To elaborate this evaluation grid, several issues had to be taken into account. First, the objective is to allow the comparison of events from various periods. These temporal disparities include the integration of various kinds of data and point out the importance of historical hydrology. It is possible to evaluate accurately the characteristics of recent floods by interpreting quantitative data (for example hydrological records. However, for floods that occurred before the 1960's it is necessary resorting to qualitative information such as written sources is necessary (Coeur, Lang, 2008). In a second part the evaluation grid requires equitable criteria in order not to

  6. Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Suu, L.T.T.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Following the renewed attention for non-structural flood risk reduction measures implemented at the household level, there has been an increased interest in individual flood risk perceptions. The reason for this is the commonly-made assumption that flood risk perceptions drive the motivation of individuals to undertake flood risk mitigation measures, as well as the public's demand for flood protection, and therefore provide useful insights for flood risk management. This study empirically exa...

  7. Climate change or variable weather: Rethinking Danish homeowners' perceptions of floods and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Petersen, Lars Kjerulf

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we under...

  8. Experimental studies on the coolability of packed beds. Flooding of hot dry packed beds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leininger, S.; Kulenovic, R.; Laurien, E.

    2013-01-01

    In case of a severe accident in a nuclear power plant meltdown of the reactor core can occur and form a packed bed in the lower plenum of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) after solidification due to contact with water. The removal of after-heat and the long-term coolability is of essential interest. The efficient injection of cooling water into the packed bed has to be assured without endangering the structural integrity of the reactor pressure vessel. The experiments performed aimed to study the dry-out and the quenching (flooding) of hot dry packed beds. Two different inflow variants, bottom- and top-flooding including the variation of the starting temperature of the packed bed and the injection rate were studied. In case of bottom flooding the quenching time increases with increasing packed bed temperature and decreasing injection rate. In case of top flooding the flow pattern is more complex, in a first phase the water flows preferentially toward the RPV wall, the flow paths conduct the water downwards. The flow resistance of the packed bed increases with increasing bed temperatures. The quenching temperatures increase significantly above average.

  9. High-resolution flood modeling of urban areas using MSN_Flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Hartnett

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Although existing hydraulic models have been used to simulate and predict urban flooding, most of these models are inadequate due to the high spatial resolution required to simulate flows in urban floodplains. Nesting high-resolution subdomains within coarser-resolution models is an efficient solution for enabling simultaneous calculation of flooding due to tides, surges, and high river flows. MSN_Flood has been developed to incorporate moving boundaries around nested domains, permitting alternate flooding and drying along the boundary and in the interior of the domain. Ghost cells adjacent to open boundary cells convert open boundaries, in effect, into internal boundaries. The moving boundary may be multi-segmented and non-continuous, with recirculating flow across the boundary. When combined with a bespoke adaptive interpolation scheme, this approach facilitates a dynamic internal boundary. Based on an alternating-direction semi-implicit finite difference scheme, MSN_Flood was used to hindcast a major flood event in Cork City resulting from the combined pressures of fluvial, tidal, and storm surge processes. The results show that the model is computationally efficient, as the 2-m high-resolution nest is used only in the urban flooded region. Elsewhere, lower-resolution nests are used. The results also show that the model is highly accurate when compared with measured data. The model is capable of incorporating nested sub-domains when the nested boundary is multi-segmented and highly complex with lateral gradients of elevation and velocities. This is a major benefit when modelling urban floodplains at very high resolution.

  10. Water supply management using an extended group fuzzy decision-making method: a case study in north-eastern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minatour, Yasser; Bonakdari, Hossein; Zarghami, Mahdi; Bakhshi, Maryam Ali

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a group fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method to be applied in rating problems associated with water resources management. Thus, here Chen's group fuzzy TOPSIS method extended by a difference technique to handle uncertainties of applying a group decision making. Then, the extended group fuzzy TOPSIS method combined with a consistency check. In the presented method, initially linguistic judgments are being surveyed via a consistency checking process, and afterward these judgments are being used in the extended Chen's fuzzy TOPSIS method. Here, each expert's opinion is turned to accurate mathematical numbers and, then, to apply uncertainties, the opinions of group are turned to fuzzy numbers using three mathematical operators. The proposed method is applied to select the optimal strategy for the rural water supply of Nohoor village in north-eastern Iran, as a case study and illustrated example. Sensitivity analyses test over results and comparing results with project reality showed that proposed method offered good results for water resources projects.

  11. Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonso, L.; Mukolwe, M. M.; Di Baldassarre, G.

    2016-02-01

    Floods are one of the most frequent and disruptive natural hazards that affect man. Annually, significant flood damage is documented worldwide. Flood mapping is a common preimpact flood hazard mitigation measure, for which advanced methods and tools (such as flood inundation models) are used to estimate potential flood extent maps that are used in spatial planning. However, these tools are affected, largely to an unknown degree, by both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Over the past few years, advances in uncertainty analysis with respect to flood inundation modeling show that it is appropriate to adopt Probabilistic Flood Maps (PFM) to account for uncertainty. However, the following question arises; how can probabilistic flood hazard information be incorporated into spatial planning? Thus, a consistent framework to incorporate PFMs into the decision-making is required. In this paper, a novel methodology based on Decision-Making under Uncertainty theories, in particular Value of Information (VOI) is proposed. Specifically, the methodology entails the use of a PFM to generate a VOI map, which highlights floodplain locations where additional information is valuable with respect to available floodplain management actions and their potential consequences. The methodology is illustrated with a simplified example and also applied to a real case study in the South of France, where a VOI map is analyzed on the basis of historical land use change decisions over a period of 26 years. Results show that uncertain flood hazard information encapsulated in PFMs can aid decision-making in floodplain planning.

  12. Nested 1D-2D approach for urban surface flood modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murla, Damian; Willems, Patrick

    2015-04-01

    Floods in urban areas as a consequence of sewer capacity exceedance receive increased attention because of trends in urbanization (increased population density and impermeability of the surface) and climate change. Despite the strong recent developments in numerical modeling of water systems, urban surface flood modeling is still a major challenge. Whereas very advanced and accurate flood modeling systems are in place and operation by many river authorities in support of flood management along rivers, this is not yet the case in urban water management. Reasons include the small scale of the urban inundation processes, the need to have very high resolution topographical information available, and the huge computational demands. Urban drainage related inundation modeling requires a 1D full hydrodynamic model of the sewer network to be coupled with a 2D surface flood model. To reduce the computational times, 0D (flood cones), 1D/quasi-2D surface flood modeling approaches have been developed and applied in some case studies. In this research, a nested 1D/2D hydraulic model has been developed for an urban catchment at the city of Gent (Belgium), linking the underground sewer (minor system) with the overland surface (major system). For the overland surface flood modelling, comparison was made of 0D, 1D/quasi-2D and full 2D approaches. The approaches are advanced by considering nested 1D-2D approaches, including infiltration in the green city areas, and allowing the effects of surface storm water storage to be simulated. An optimal nested combination of three different mesh resolutions was identified; based on a compromise between precision and simulation time for further real-time flood forecasting, warning and control applications. Main streets as mesh zones together with buildings as void regions constitute one of these mesh resolution (3.75m2 - 15m2); they have been included since they channel most of the flood water from the manholes and they improve the accuracy of

  13. Severe coinfection of melioidosis and dengue fever in northeastern Brazil: first case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Nogueira Macedo

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This report focuses on a fatality involving severe dengue fever and melioidosis in a 28-year-old truck driver residing in Pacoti in northeastern Brazil. He exhibited long-term respiratory symptoms (48 days and went through a wide-ranging clinical investigation at three hospitals, after initial clinical diagnoses of pneumonia, visceral leishmaniasis, tuberculosis, and fungal sepsis. After death, Burkholderia pseudomallei was isolated in a culture of ascitic fluid. Dengue virus type 1 was detected by polymerase chain reaction in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF; this infection was the cause of death. This description reinforces the need to consider melioidosis among the reported differential diagnoses of community-acquired infections where both melioidosis and dengue fever are endemic.

  14. Iowa Flood Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.; Goska, R.; Mantilla, R.; Weber, L. J.; Young, N.

    2011-12-01

    The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 500 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities

  15. Flood risk, uncertainty and changing river protection policy in the Netherlands: the case of 'calamity polders'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roth, D.; Warner, J.F.

    2007-01-01

    Extreme river discharges, floods and debates about climate change triggered a shift in flood protection policy in the Netherlands from infrastructural to spatial measures. The new policy directive of `Room for the River¿, details of which were introduced in 2000, should prepare the country for

  16. Flood Zoning Simulation by HEC-RAS Model (Case Study: Johor River-Kota Tinggi Region)

    OpenAIRE

    ShahiriParsa, Ahmad; Heydari, Mohammad; Sadeghian, Mohammad Sadegh; Moharrampour, Mahdi

    2015-01-01

    Flooding of rivers has caused many human and financial losses. Hence, studies and research on the nature of the river is inevitable.However, the behavior of rivers hasmany complexities and in this respect, computer models are efficient tools in order to study and simulate the behavior of rivers with the least possible cost. In this paper, one-dimensional model HEC-RAS was used to simulate the flood zoning in the Kota Tinggi district in Johor state. Implementation processes of the zoning on ca...

  17. Design flood hydrographs from the relationship between flood peak and volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Mediero

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological frequency analyses are usually focused on flood peaks. Flood volumes and durations have not been studied as extensively, although there are many practical situations, such as when designing a dam, in which the full hydrograph is of interest. A flood hydrograph may be described by a multivariate function of the peak, volume and duration. Most standard bivariate and trivariate functions do not produce univariate three-parameter functions as marginal distributions, however, three-parameter functions are required to fit highly skewed data, such as flood peak and flood volume series. In this paper, the relationship between flood peak and hydrograph volume is analysed to overcome this problem. A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to generate an ensemble of hydrographs that maintain the statistical properties of marginal distributions of the peaks, volumes and durations. This ensemble can be applied to determine the Design Flood Hydrograph (DFH for a reservoir, which is not a unique hydrograph, but rather a curve in the peak-volume space. All hydrographs on that curve have the same return period, which can be understood as the inverse of the probability to exceed a certain water level in the reservoir in any given year. The procedure can also be applied to design the length of the spillway crest in terms of the risk of exceeding a given water level in the reservoir.

  18. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    that combines a model for the socio-economic development of cities (DANCE4WATER) with an urban flood model. The urban flood model is a 1D-2D spatially distributed hydrologic and hydraulic model that, for a given urban layout, simulates flow in the sewer system and the surface flow in the catchment (MIKE FLOOD......). The socio-economic model computes urban layouts that are transferred to the hydraulic model in the form of changes of impervious area and potential flow paths on the surface. Estimates of flood prone areas, as well as the expected annual damage due to flooding, are returned to the socio-economic model...... as an input for further refinement of the scenarios for the urban development. Our results in an Australian case study suggest that urban development is a major driver for flood risk and vice versa that flood risk can be significantly reduced if it is accounted for in the development of the cities...

  19. Effects of the july 1997 floods in the Czech Republic on cardiac mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obrová, Jana; Sovová, Eliška; Ivanová, Kateřina; Táborský, Miloš; Loyka, Svatopluk

    2014-12-01

    An excess of deaths from cardiac causes are reported after many natural disasters. Despite the fact that floods are the most common and most destructive natural disaster worldwide, little is known about their effect on human health. We analyzed the influence of the greatest floods in the Czech Republic on cardiac mortality in the affected area. This was a retrospective case-control study. We analyzed persons whose autopsies proved they had died of cardiac causes during the month of the flood, 2 months before the flood, 1 month after the flood, and during the same period in the 3 previous years. A total of 207 of 985 autopsy reports met the criteria for inclusion in the study. There were no significant differences in the proportions of men and women (P=0.819) or in age (P=0.577). During the month of the flood, an increase in cardiac mortality was observed; however, the increase was not statistically significant (P=0.088). According to our findings, the 1997 Central European flood did not significantly affect cardiac mortality.

  20. The development of flood map in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; MDR, E. M. Roodienyanto

    2017-11-01

    In Malaysia, flash floods are common occurrences throughout the year in flood prone areas. In terms of flood extent, flash floods affect smaller areas but because of its tendency to occur in densely urbanized areas, the value of damaged property is high and disruption to traffic flow and businesses are substantial. However, in river floods especially the river floods of Kelantan and Pahang, the flood extent is widespread and can extend over 1,000 square kilometers. Although the value of property and density of affected population is lower, the damage inflicted by these floods can also be high because the area affected is large. In order to combat these floods, various flood mitigation measures have been carried out. Structural flood mitigation alone can only provide protection levels from 10 to 100 years Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI). One of the economically effective non-structural approaches in flood mitigation and flood management is using a geospatial technology which involves flood forecasting and warning services to the flood prone areas. This approach which involves the use of Geographical Information Flood Forecasting system also includes the generation of a series of flood maps. There are three types of flood maps namely Flood Hazard Map, Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map. Flood Hazard Map is used to determine areas susceptible to flooding when discharge from a stream exceeds the bank-full stage. Early warnings of incoming flood events will enable the flood victims to prepare themselves before flooding occurs. Properties and life's can be saved by keeping their movable properties above the flood levels and if necessary, an early evacuation from the area. With respect to flood fighting, an early warning with reference through a series of flood maps including flood hazard map, flood risk map and flood evacuation map of the approaching flood should be able to alert the organization in charge of the flood fighting actions and the authority to

  1. Comparison between changes in flood hazard and risk in Spain using historical information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Mediero, Luis; Garrote, Luis; Gilabert, Joan

    2015-04-01

    Recently, the COST Action ES0901 "European procedures for flood frequency estimation (FloodFreq)" had as objective "the comparison and evaluation of methods for flood frequency estimation under the various climatologic and geographic conditions found in Europe". It was highlighted the improvement of regional analyses on at-site estimates, in terms of the uncertainty of quantile estimates. In the case of Spain, a regional analysis was carried out at a national scale, which allows identifying the flow threshold corresponding to a given return period from the observed flow series recorded at a gauging station. In addition, Mediero et al. (2014) studied the possible influence of non-stationarity on flood series for the period 1942-2009. In parallel, Barnolas and Llasat (2007), among others, collected documentary information of catastrophic flood events in Spain for the last centuries. Traditionally, the first approach ("top-down") usually identifies a flood as catastrophic, when its exceeds the 500-year return period flood. However, the second one ("bottom-up approach") accounts for flood damages (Llasat et al, 2005). This study presents a comparison between both approaches, discussing the potential factors that can lead to discrepancies between them, as well as accounting for information about major changes experienced in the catchment that could lead to changes in flood hazard and risk.

  2. 2 Dimensional Hydrodynamic Flood Routing Analysis on Flood Forecasting Modelling for Kelantan River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azad Wan Hazdy

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster occurs quite frequently in Malaysia and has been categorized as the most threatening natural disaster compared to landslides, hurricanes, tsunami, haze and others. A study by Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID show that 9% of land areas in Malaysia are prone to flood which may affect approximately 4.9 million of the population. 2 Dimensional floods routing modelling demonstrate is turning out to be broadly utilized for flood plain display and is an extremely viable device for evaluating flood. Flood propagations can be better understood by simulating the flow and water level by using hydrodynamic modelling. The hydrodynamic flood routing can be recognized by the spatial complexity of the schematization such as 1D model and 2D model. It was found that most of available hydrological models for flood forecasting are more focus on short duration as compared to long duration hydrological model using the Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM. The aim of this paper is to discuss preliminary findings on development of flood forecasting model using Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM for Kelantan river basin. Among the findings discuss in this paper includes preliminary calibrated PDM model, which performed reasonably for the Dec 2014, but underestimated the peak flows. Apart from that, this paper also discusses findings on Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD and flood plain analysis. Flood forecasting is the complex process that begins with an understanding of the geographical makeup of the catchment and knowledge of the preferential regions of heavy rainfall and flood behaviour for the area of responsibility. Therefore, to decreases the uncertainty in the model output, so it is important to increase the complexity of the model.

  3. Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, A.; Jonkman, S. N.; Van Ledden, M.

    2015-01-01

    Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that - depending on the flood scenario - the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion.

  4. Impacts of floods on dysentery in Xinxiang city, China, during 2004-2010: a time-series Poisson analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Wei; Ding, Guoyong; Li, Yifei; Li, Hongkai; Jiang, Baofa

    2014-01-01

    Xinxiang, a city in Henan Province, suffered from frequent floods due to persistent and heavy precipitation from 2004 to 2010. In the same period, dysentery was a common public health problem in Xinxiang, with the proportion of reported cases being the third highest among all the notified infectious diseases. We focused on dysentery disease consequences of different degrees of floods and examined the association between floods and the morbidity of dysentery on the basis of longitudinal data during the study period. A time-series Poisson regression model was conducted to examine the relationship between 10 times different degrees of floods and the monthly morbidity of dysentery from 2004 to 2010 in Xinxiang. Relative risks (RRs) of moderate and severe floods on the morbidity of dysentery were calculated in this paper. In addition, we estimated the attributable contributions of moderate and severe floods to the morbidity of dysentery. A total of 7591 cases of dysentery were notified in Xinxiang during the study period. The effect of floods on dysentery was shown with a 0-month lag. Regression analysis showed that the risk of moderate and severe floods on the morbidity of dysentery was 1.55 (95% CI: 1.42-1.670) and 1.74 (95% CI: 1.56-1.94), respectively. The attributable risk proportions (ARPs) of moderate and severe floods to the morbidity of dysentery were 35.53 and 42.48%, respectively. This study confirms that floods have significantly increased the risk of dysentery in the study area. In addition, severe floods have a higher proportional contribution to the morbidity of dysentery than moderate floods. Public health action should be taken to avoid and control a potential risk of dysentery epidemics after floods.

  5. Representing Geospatial Environment Observation Capability Information: A Case Study of Managing Flood Monitoring Sensors in the Jinsha River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chuli; Guan, Qingfeng; Li, Jie; Wang, Ke; Chen, Nengcheng

    2016-01-01

    Sensor inquirers cannot understand comprehensive or accurate observation capability information because current observation capability modeling does not consider the union of multiple sensors nor the effect of geospatial environmental features on the observation capability of sensors. These limitations result in a failure to discover credible sensors or plan for their collaboration for environmental monitoring. The Geospatial Environmental Observation Capability (GEOC) is proposed in this study and can be used as an information basis for the reliable discovery and collaborative planning of multiple environmental sensors. A field-based GEOC (GEOCF) information representation model is built. Quintuple GEOCF feature components and two GEOCF operations are formulated based on the geospatial field conceptual framework. The proposed GEOCF markup language is used to formalize the proposed GEOCF. A prototype system called GEOCapabilityManager is developed, and a case study is conducted for flood observation in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River Basin. The applicability of the GEOCF is verified through the reliable discovery of flood monitoring sensors and planning for the collaboration of these sensors. PMID:27999247

  6. Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cœur, Denis; Lang, Michel

    2008-09-01

    The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.

  7. Regional flood reconstruction in Kullu District (Himachal Pradesh, India): implication for Disaster Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Stoffel, Markus; Trappmann, Daniel; Shekhar, Mayank; Bhattacharyya, Amalava

    2016-04-01

    simultaneously in more than two catchments, and that in 15% of the cases more than four catchments were affected. By contrast, 44% of event years were related with one specific catchment, corroborating the assumption that large-scale atmospheric conditions and specific weather and/or geomorphic conditions may operate as triggers of floods in Kullu district. The inclusion of peak discharge data related with these ungauged extreme flood events into the regional flood frequency evidenced that flood hazard was systematically underestimated. Our results allowed to highlight the potential causes of three paradigmatic cases of flood disaster incidents at Kullus district, suggesting that the lack of knowledge on past flood disaster could play an important role in Disaster Risk managment (DRM) at three actors-levels i.e. civil engineering, local authorities and inhabitants. These observations show that reliable DRM implementation is conditioned by lack of data to characterize the flood process, and therefore put in value the palaeohydrological approach used in this study.

  8. Evaluation of Flooding Risk and Engineering Protection Against Floods for Ulan-Ude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borisova, T. A.

    2017-11-01

    The report presents the results of the study on analysis and risk assessment in relation to floods for Ulan-Ude and provides the developed recommendations of the activities for engineering protection of the population and economic installations. The current situation is reviewed and the results of the site survey are shown to identify the challenges and areas of negative water influence along with the existing security system. The report presents a summary of floods and index risk assessment. The articles describes the scope of eventual flooding, underflooding and enumerates the economic installations inside the urban areas’ research-based zones of flooding at the rated levels of water to identify the likeliness of exceedance. The assessment of damage from flood equal to 1% is shown.

  9. Guiding rational reservoir flood operation using penalty-type genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Li-Chiu

    2008-06-01

    SummaryReal-time flood control of a multi-purpose reservoir should consider decreasing the flood peak stage downstream and storing floodwaters for future usage during typhoon seasons. This study proposes a reservoir flood control optimization model with linguistic description of requirements and existing regulations for rational operating decisions. The approach involves formulating reservoir flood operation as an optimization problem and using the genetic algorithm (GA) as a search engine. The optimizing formulation is expressed not only by mathematical forms of objective function and constraints, but also by no analytic expression in terms of parameters. GA is used to search a global optimum of a mixture of mathematical and nonmathematical formulations. Due to the great number of constraints and flood control requirements, it is difficult to reach a solution without violating constraints. To tackle this bottleneck, the proper penalty strategy for each parameter is proposed to guide the GA searching process. The proposed approach is applied to the Shihmen reservoir in North Taiwan for finding the rational release and desired storage as a case study. The hourly historical data sets of 29 typhoon events that have hit the area in last thirty years are investigated bye the proposed method. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the simplex method was performed. The results demonstrated that a penalty-type genetic algorithm could effectively provide rational hydrographs to reduce flood damage during the flood operation and to increase final storage for future usages.

  10. Spatiotemporal Change Detection Using Landsat Imagery: the Case Study of Karacabey Flooded Forest, Bursa, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akay, A. E.; Gencal, B.; Taş, İ.

    2017-11-01

    This short paper aims to detect spatiotemporal detection of land use/land cover change within Karacabey Flooded Forest region. Change detection analysis applied to Landsat 5 TM images representing July 2000 and a Landsat 8 OLI representing June 2017. Various image processing tools were implemented using ERDAS 9.2, ArcGIS 10.4.1, and ENVI programs to conduct spatiotemporal change detection over these two images such as band selection, corrections, subset, classification, recoding, accuracy assessment, and change detection analysis. Image classification revealed that there are five significant land use/land cover types, including forest, flooded forest, swamp, water, and other lands (i.e. agriculture, sand, roads, settlement, and open areas). The results indicated that there was increase in flooded forest, water, and other lands, while the cover of forest and swamp decreased.

  11. From the 'Le Blayais NPP' flooding in 1999 to the review of French regulation for the protection of nuclear facilities against external flooding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupuy, P.

    2011-01-01

    On 27 December 1999, a severe storm occurred in the vicinity of the 'Le Blayais' Nuclear Power Plant located on the banks of the Gironde estuary. The severe storm-driven waves coincident with high water levels in the Gironde estuary exceeded the worst-case scenario considered at the design of the site protection against flooding, resulting in the scram of three out of four units and severe nuclear island flooding. Several underground rooms sheltering equipment important to safety were flooded. This partial flooding incident has called into question the design bases defined in the French Basic Safety Rule (BSR) I.2.e for the protection of French NPPs against external flooding in particular in terms of flood events and combinations of flood events considered for the design. It has also revealed some weaknesses in the existing measures implemented, especially the site protection dykes, the protection of equipment important to safety, the warning systems and the emergency organization. Following this incident, in addition to the rush through protection measures undertaken on Le Blayais NPP, the utility Electricity De France (EDF) has launched a wide review of the protection of all French NPPs against external flooding. This review is based on a new and more comprehensive methodology for the protection of NPPs against external flooding (called 'REX Blayais methodology'), including a reassessment of flood events and their combinations and of all protection measures. This review has led EDF to carry out a large number of modifications and improvements at all NPP sites. 'REX Blayais methodology' and its application to all French NPPs were submitted to the approval of the French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) in 2001 and then in 2007 after being analyzed by its technical support IRSN (French Institute for Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety). The methodology and the level of protection of the NPPs thanks to all the improvements and modifications performed by the utility were

  12. Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

    2016-04-01

    In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  13. Vehicles instability criteria for flood risk assessment of a street network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Arrighi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The mutual interaction between floods and human activity is a process, which has been evolving over history and has shaped flood risk pathways. In developed countries, many events have illustrated that the majority of the fatalities during a flood occurs in a vehicle, which is considered as a safe shelter but it may turn into a trap for several combinations of water depth and velocity. Thus, driving a car in floodwaters is recognized as the most crucial aggravating factor for people safety. On the other hand, the entrainment of vehicles may locally cause obstructions to the flow and induce the collapse of infrastructures. Flood risk to vehicles can be defined as the combination of the probability of a vehicle of being swept away (i.e. the hazard and the actual traffic/parking density, i.e. the vulnerability. Hazard for vehicles can be assessed through the spatial identification and mapping of the critical conditions for vehicles incipient motion. This analysis requires a flood map with information on water depth and velocity and consistent instability criteria accounting for flood and vehicles characteristics. Vulnerability is evaluated thanks to the road network and traffic data. Therefore, vehicles flood risk mapping can support people's education and management practices in order to reduce the casualties. In this work, a flood hazard classification for vehicles is introduced and an application to a real case study is presented and discussed.

  14. Vehicles instability criteria for flood risk assessment of a street network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Huybrechts, Nicolas; Ouahsine, Abdellatif; Chassé, Patrick; Oumeraci, Hocine; Castelli, Fabio

    2016-05-01

    The mutual interaction between floods and human activity is a process, which has been evolving over history and has shaped flood risk pathways. In developed countries, many events have illustrated that the majority of the fatalities during a flood occurs in a vehicle, which is considered as a safe shelter but it may turn into a trap for several combinations of water depth and velocity. Thus, driving a car in floodwaters is recognized as the most crucial aggravating factor for people safety. On the other hand, the entrainment of vehicles may locally cause obstructions to the flow and induce the collapse of infrastructures. Flood risk to vehicles can be defined as the combination of the probability of a vehicle of being swept away (i.e. the hazard) and the actual traffic/parking density, i.e. the vulnerability. Hazard for vehicles can be assessed through the spatial identification and mapping of the critical conditions for vehicles incipient motion. This analysis requires a flood map with information on water depth and velocity and consistent instability criteria accounting for flood and vehicles characteristics. Vulnerability is evaluated thanks to the road network and traffic data. Therefore, vehicles flood risk mapping can support people's education and management practices in order to reduce the casualties. In this work, a flood hazard classification for vehicles is introduced and an application to a real case study is presented and discussed.

  15. Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annegret H. Thieken

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1 an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2 comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3 more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4 a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.

  16. Towards a Flood Severity Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettner, A.; Chong, A.; Prades, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Muir, S.; Amparore, A.; Slayback, D. A.; Poungprom, R.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide, affecting 21 million people every year. In the immediate moments following a flood event, humanitarian actors like the World Food Program need to make rapid decisions ( 72 hrs) on how to prioritize affected areas impacted by such an event. For other natural disasters like hurricanes/cyclones and earthquakes, there are industry-recognized standards on how the impacted areas are to be classified. Shake maps, quantifying peak ground motion, from for example the US Geological Survey are widely used for assessing earthquakes. Similarly, cyclones are tracked by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) who release storm nodes and tracks (forecasted and actual), with wind buffers and classify the event according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. For floods, the community is usually able to acquire unclassified data of the flood extent as identified from satellite imagery. Most often no water discharge hydrograph is available to classify the event into recurrence intervals simply because there is no gauging station, or the gauging station was unable to record the maximum discharge due to overtopping or flood damage. So, the question remains: How do we methodically turn a flooded area into classified areas of different gradations of impact? Here, we present a first approach towards developing a global applicable flood severity index. The flood severity index is set up such that it considers relatively easily obtainable physical parameters in a short period of time like: flood frequency (relating the current flood to historical events) and magnitude, as well as land cover, slope, and where available pre-event simulated flood depth. The scale includes categories ranging from very minor flooding to catastrophic flooding. We test and evaluate the postulated classification scheme against a set of past flood events. Once a severity category is determined, socio

  17. Hydrologic and hydraulic flood forecasting constrained by remote sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Grimaldi, S.; Pauwels, V. R. N.; Walker, J. P.; Wright, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is one of the most destructive natural disasters, resulting in many deaths and billions of dollars of damages each year. An indispensable tool to mitigate the effect of floods is to provide accurate and timely forecasts. An operational flood forecasting system typically consists of a hydrologic model, converting rainfall data into flood volumes entering the river system, and a hydraulic model, converting these flood volumes into water levels and flood extents. Such a system is prone to various sources of uncertainties from the initial conditions, meteorological forcing, topographic data, model parameters and model structure. To reduce those uncertainties, current forecasting systems are typically calibrated and/or updated using ground-based streamflow measurements, and such applications are limited to well-gauged areas. The recent increasing availability of spatially distributed remote sensing (RS) data offers new opportunities to improve flood forecasting skill. Based on an Australian case study, this presentation will discuss the use of 1) RS soil moisture to constrain a hydrologic model, and 2) RS flood extent and level to constrain a hydraulic model.The GRKAL hydrological model is calibrated through a joint calibration scheme using both ground-based streamflow and RS soil moisture observations. A lag-aware data assimilation approach is tested through a set of synthetic experiments to integrate RS soil moisture to constrain the streamflow forecasting in real-time.The hydraulic model is LISFLOOD-FP which solves the 2-dimensional inertial approximation of the Shallow Water Equations. Gauged water level time series and RS-derived flood extent and levels are used to apply a multi-objective calibration protocol. The effectiveness with which each data source or combination of data sources constrained the parameter space will be discussed.

  18. Constructing risks – Internalisation of flood risks in the flood risk management plan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roos, Matthijs; Hartmann, T.; Spit, T.J.M.; Johann, Georg

    Traditional flood protection methods have focused efforts on different measures to keep water out of floodplains. However, the European Flood Directive challenges this paradigm (Hartmann and Driessen, 2013). Accordingly, flood risk management plans should incorporate measures brought about by

  19. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  20. Legitimizing differentiated flood protection levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thomas, Hartmann; Spit, Tejo

    2016-01-01

    The European flood risk management plan is a new instrument introduced by the Floods Directive. It introduces a spatial turn and a scenario approach in flood risk management, ultimately leading to differentiated flood protection levels on a catchment basis. This challenges the traditional sources of

  1. Flooding and sinking of nuclear merchant ships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lettnin, H.K.J.; Wehowsky, P.

    1978-01-01

    In contrast to land-based power plants for ship reactors the marine environment brings up the peril of sinking. But this peril is low for nuclear ships with its high safety standard. An evaluation of casualties from 1964 - 1974 for ships>8000 GRT allows to estimate a very low sink probability for nuclear ships in the range of 10 -7 to 10 -8 p.a. In spite of this low probability a sinking cannot be excluded absolutely. Therefore passive means must be provided for sinking in deep waters: to maintain the integrity of at least one enclosure as activity barrier; to supply seawater into the safety containment for decay heat removal. For sinking in shallow waters and flooding at least one of the redundant decay heat removal systems including power supply stays operable. A mathematical tool is available for the design of flood openings of sufficient cross sections to flood the containment and to reach a pressure balance in case of postulated sinking in deep waters of any depth

  2. Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verbeke Sven

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

  3. Wetland restoration, flood pulsing, and disturbance dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.

    1999-01-01

    While it is generally accepted that flood pulsing and disturbance dynamics are critical to wetland viability, there is as yet no consensus among those responsible for wetland restoration about how best to plan for those phenomena or even whether it is really necessary to do so at all. In this groundbreaking book, Dr. Beth Middleton draws upon the latest research from around the world to build a strong case for making flood pulsing and disturbance dynamics integral to the wetland restoration planning process.While the initial chapters of the book are devoted to laying the conceptual foundations, most of the coverage is concerned with demonstrating the practical implications for wetland restoration and management of the latest ecological theory and research. It includes a fascinating case history section in which Dr. Middleton explores the restoration models used in five major North American, European, Australian, African, and Asian wetland projects, and analyzes their relative success from the perspective of flood pulsing and disturbance dynamics planning.Wetland Restoration also features a wealth of practical information useful to all those involved in wetland restoration and management, including: * A compendium of water level tolerances, seed germination, seedling recruitment, adult survival rates, and other key traits of wetland plant species * A bibliography of 1,200 articles and monographs covering all aspects of wetland restoration * A comprehensive directory of wetland restoration ftp sites worldwide * An extensive glossary of essential terms

  4. Has land subsidence changed the flood hazard potential? A case example from the Kujukuri Plain, Chiba Prefecture, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. L. Chen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Coastal areas are subject to flood hazards because of their topographic features, social development and related human activities. The Kujukuri Plain, Chiba Prefecture, Japan, is located nearby the Tokyo metropolitan area and it faces to the Pacific Ocean. In the Kujukuri Plain, widespread occurrence of land subsidence has been caused by exploitation of groundwater, extraction of natural gas dissolved in brine, and natural consolidation of the Holocene and landfill deposits. The locations of land subsidence include areas near the coast, and it may increase the flood hazard potential. Hence, it is very important to evaluate flood hazard potential by taking into account the temporal change of land elevation caused by land subsidence, and to prepare hazard maps for protecting the surface environment and for developing an appropriate land-use plan. In this study, flood hazard assessments at three different times, i.e., 1970, 2004, and 2013 are implemented by using a flood hazard model based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis with Geographical Information System techniques. The model incorporates six factors: elevation, depression area, river system, ratio of impermeable area, detention ponds, and precipitation. Main data sources used are 10 m resolution topography data, airborne laser scanning data, leveling data, Landsat-TM data, two 1:30 000 scale river watershed maps, and precipitation data from observation stations around the study area and Radar data. The hazard assessment maps for each time are obtained by using an algorithm that combines factors with weighted linear combinations. The assignment of the weight/rank values and their analysis are realized by the application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. This study is a preliminary work to investigate flood hazards on the Kujukuri Plain. A flood model will be developed to simulate more detailed change of the flood hazard influenced by land subsidence.

  5. Mitigating flood exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

  6. Why are decisions in flood disaster management so poorly supported by information from flood models?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leskens, Anne; Brugnach, Marcela Fabiana; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Schuurmans, W.

    2014-01-01

    Flood simulation models can provide practitioners of Flood Disaster Management with sophisticated estimates of floods. Despite the advantages that flood simulation modeling may provide, experiences have proven that these models are of limited use. Until now, this problem has mainly been investigated

  7. 40 CFR 81.79 - Northeastern Oklahoma Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.79 Section 81.79 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.79 Northeastern Oklahoma Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Tulsa Intrastate Air Quality Control Region has been renamed the Northeastern Oklahoma Intrastate...

  8. A large-scale simulation of climate change effects on flood regime - A case study for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.; Kao, S. C.; Kalyanapu, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The damage and cost of flooding are continuously increasing due to climate change and variability, which compels the development and advance of global flood hazard models. However, due to computational expensiveness, evaluation of large-scale and high-resolution flood regime remains a challenge. The objective of this research is to use a coupled modeling framework that consists of a dynamically downscaled suite of eleven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, a distributed hydrologic model called DHSVM, and a computational-efficient 2-dimensional hydraulic model called Flood2D-GPU to study the impacts of climate change on flood regime in the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin. Downscaled meteorologic forcings for 40 years in the historical period (1966-2005) and 40 years in the future period (2011-2050) were used as inputs to drive the calibrated DHSVM to generate annual maximum flood hydrographs. These flood hydrographs along with 30-m resolution digital elevation and estimated surface roughness were then used by Flood2D-GPU to estimate high-resolution flood depth, velocities, duration, and regime. Preliminary results for the Conasauga river basin (an upper subbasin within ACT) indicate that seven of the eleven climate projections show an average increase of 25 km2 in flooded area (between historic and future projections). Future work will focus on illustrating the effects of climate change on flood duration and area for the entire ACT basin.

  9. Physics of coolability of top flooded molten corium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulkarni, P.P.; Singh, R.K.; Nayak, A.K.; Vijayan, P.K.; Saha, D.; Sinha, R.K.

    2011-01-01

    During a postulated severe accident in a nuclear reactor in case of ex-vessel scenario the molten corium can be relocated in the containment cavity forming a melt pool. In order to arrest further progression of severe accident, complete quenching of the molten corium pool is necessary. Most common way to deal with ex-vessel scenario is to flood the melt pool with large quantity of water. However, the mechanism of coolability is much more complex involving multi-component, multiphase heat, mass and momentum transfer. In this paper, a mechanistic model has been presented for the corium coolability under top flooding conditions. The model has been validated with the experimental data of COMECO test facility available in literature. Simulations have been carried out using the model to explore the physics behind the corium coolability with MCCI under top flooding condition. Variations in the thermo-physical properties as a result of MCCI have been considered and its effect on coolability has been studied. (author)

  10. THE FLOOD RISK IN THE LOWER GIANH RIVER: MODELLING AND FIELD VERIFICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NGUYEN H. D.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Problems associated with flood risk definitely represent a highly topical issue in Vietnam. The case of the lower Gianh River in the central area of Vietnam, with a watershed area of 353 km2, is particularly interesting. In this area, periodically subject to flood risk, the scientific question is strongly linked to risk management. In addition, flood risk is the consequence of the hydrological hazard of an event and the damages related to this event. For this reason, our approach is based on hydrodynamic modelling using Mike Flood to simulate the runoff during a flood event. Unfortunately the data in the studied area are quite limited. Our computation of the flood risk is based on a three-step modelling process, using rainfall data coming from 8 stations, cross sections, the topographic map and the land-use map. The first step consists of creating a 1-D model using Mike 11, in order to simulate the runoff in the minor river bed. In the second step, we use Mike 21 to create a 2-D model to simulate the runoff in the flood plain. The last step allows us to couple the two models in order to precisely describe the variables for the hazard analysis in the flood plain (the water level, the speed, the extent of the flooding. Moreover the model is calibrated and verified using observational data of the water level at hydrologic stations and field control data (on the one hand flood height measurements, on the other hand interviews with the community and with the local councillors. We then generate GIS maps in order to improve flood hazard management, which allows us to create flood hazard maps by coupling the flood plain map and the runoff speed map. Our results show that: the flood peak, caused by typhoon Nari, reached more than 6 m on October 16th 2013 at 4 p.m. (its area was extended by 149 km². End that the typhoon constitutes an extreme flood hazard for 11.39%, very high for 10.60%, high for 30.79%, medium for 31.91% and a light flood hazard for 15

  11. Multi-dimensional perspectives of flood risk - using a participatory framework to develop new approaches to flood risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollason, Edward; Bracken, Louise; Hardy, Richard; Large, Andy

    2017-04-01

    Flooding is a major hazard across Europe which, since, 1998 has caused over €52 million in damages and displaced over half a million people. Climate change is predicted to increase the risks posed by flooding in the future. The 2007 EU Flood Directive cemented the use of flood risk maps as a central tool in understanding and communicating flood risk. Following recent flooding in England, an urgent need to integrate people living at risk from flooding into flood management approaches, encouraging flood resilience and the up-take of resilient activities has been acknowledged. The effective communication of flood risk information plays a major role in allowing those at risk to make effective decisions about flood risk and increase their resilience, however, there are emerging concerns over the effectiveness of current approaches. The research presented explores current approaches to flood risk communication in England and the effectiveness of these methods in encouraging resilient actions before and during flooding events. The research also investigates how flood risk communications could be undertaken more effectively, using a novel participatory framework to integrate the perspectives of those living at risk. The research uses co-production between local communities and researchers in the environmental sciences, using a participatory framework to bring together local knowledge of flood risk and flood communications. Using a local competency group, the research explores what those living at risk from flooding want from flood communications in order to develop new approaches to help those at risk understand and respond to floods. Suggestions for practice are refined by the communities to co-produce recommendations. The research finds that current approaches to real-time flood risk communication fail to forecast the significance of predicted floods, whilst flood maps lack detailed information about how floods occur, or use scientific terminology which people at risk

  12. Flood management: prediction of microbial contamination in large-scale floods in urban environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jonathon; Lai, Ka Man; Davies, Mike; Clifton, David; Ridley, Ian; Biddulph, Phillip

    2011-07-01

    With a changing climate and increased urbanisation, the occurrence and the impact of flooding is expected to increase significantly. Floods can bring pathogens into homes and cause lingering damp and microbial growth in buildings, with the level of growth and persistence dependent on the volume and chemical and biological content of the flood water, the properties of the contaminating microbes, and the surrounding environmental conditions, including the restoration time and methods, the heat and moisture transport properties of the envelope design, and the ability of the construction material to sustain the microbial growth. The public health risk will depend on the interaction of these complex processes and the vulnerability and susceptibility of occupants in the affected areas. After the 2007 floods in the UK, the Pitt review noted that there is lack of relevant scientific evidence and consistency with regard to the management and treatment of flooded homes, which not only put the local population at risk but also caused unnecessary delays in the restoration effort. Understanding the drying behaviour of flooded buildings in the UK building stock under different scenarios, and the ability of microbial contaminants to grow, persist, and produce toxins within these buildings can help inform recovery efforts. To contribute to future flood management, this paper proposes the use of building simulations and biological models to predict the risk of microbial contamination in typical UK buildings. We review the state of the art with regard to biological contamination following flooding, relevant building simulation, simulation-linked microbial modelling, and current practical considerations in flood remediation. Using the city of London as an example, a methodology is proposed that uses GIS as a platform to integrate drying models and microbial risk models with the local building stock and flood models. The integrated tool will help local governments, health authorities

  13. Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comer, Joanne; Indiana Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen; Hartnett, Michael

    2017-02-01

    Urban developments in coastal zones are often exposed to natural hazards such as flooding. In this research, a state-of-the-art, multi-scale nested flood (MSN_Flood) model is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding due to combined effects of tides, surges and river discharges. Cork city on Ireland's southwest coast is a study case. The flood modelling system comprises a cascade of four dynamically linked models that resolve the hydrodynamics of Cork Harbour and/or its sub-region at four scales: 90, 30, 6 and 2 m. Results demonstrate that the internalization of the nested boundary through the use of ghost cells combined with a tailored adaptive interpolation technique creates a highly dynamic moving boundary that permits flooding and drying of the nested boundary. This novel feature of MSN_Flood provides a high degree of choice regarding the location of the boundaries to the nested domain and therefore flexibility in model application. The nested MSN_Flood model through dynamic downscaling facilitates significant improvements in accuracy of model output without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. The urban flood model provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.

  14. Evaluation of various modelling approaches in flood routing simulation and flood area mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Vasiliades, Lampros; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    An essential process of flood hazard analysis and mapping is the floodplain modelling. The selection of the modelling approach, especially, in complex riverine topographies such as urban and suburban areas, and ungauged watersheds may affect the accuracy of the outcomes in terms of flood depths and flood inundation area. In this study, a sensitivity analysis implemented using several hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches (1D, 2D, 1D/2D) and the effect of modelling approach on flood modelling and flood mapping was investigated. The digital terrain model (DTMs) used in this study was generated from Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) point cloud data. The modelling approaches included 1-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (1D), 2-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (2D) and the coupled 1D/2D. The 1D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: HECRAS, MIKE11, LISFLOOD, XPSTORM. The 2D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: MIKE21, MIKE21FM, HECRAS (2D), XPSTORM, LISFLOOD and FLO2d. The coupled 1D/2D models employed were: HECRAS(1D/2D), MIKE11/MIKE21(MIKE FLOOD platform), MIKE11/MIKE21 FM(MIKE FLOOD platform), XPSTORM(1D/2D). The validation process of flood extent achieved with the use of 2x2 contingency tables between simulated and observed flooded area for an extreme historical flash flood event. The skill score Critical Success Index was used in the validation process. The modelling approaches have also been evaluated for simulation time and requested computing power. The methodology has been implemented in a suburban ungauged watershed of Xerias river at Volos-Greece. The results of the analysis indicate the necessity of sensitivity analysis application with the use of different hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches especially for areas with complex terrain.

  15. Flood-proof motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmitt, Marcus [AREVA NP GmbH, Erlangen (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Even before the Fukushima event occurred some German nuclear power plants (NPP) have considered flooding scenarios. As a result of one of these studies, AREVA performed an upgrade project in NPP Isar 1 with flood-proof motors as a replacement of existing air-cooled low-voltage and high-voltage motors of the emergency cooling chain. After the Fukushima event, in which the cooling chains failed, the topic flood-proof equipment gets more and more into focus. This compact will introduce different kinds of flood-proof electrical motors which are currently installed or planned for installation into NPPs over the world. Moreover the process of qualification, as it was performed during the project in NPP Isar 1, will be shown. (orig.)

  16. Flood-proof motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, Marcus

    2013-01-01

    Even before the Fukushima event occurred some German nuclear power plants (NPP) have considered flooding scenarios. As a result of one of these studies, AREVA performed an upgrade project in NPP Isar 1 with flood-proof motors as a replacement of existing air-cooled low-voltage and high-voltage motors of the emergency cooling chain. After the Fukushima event, in which the cooling chains failed, the topic flood-proof equipment gets more and more into focus. This compact will introduce different kinds of flood-proof electrical motors which are currently installed or planned for installation into NPPs over the world. Moreover the process of qualification, as it was performed during the project in NPP Isar 1, will be shown. (orig.)

  17. Urban Flooding Analysis Using Radar Rainfall Data and 2-D Hydrodynamic Model: A Pilot Study of Back Cover Area, Portland, Maine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Collis, Scott [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-11-01

    This project is a part of the Regional Resiliency Assessment Program, led by the Department of Homeland Security, to address flooding hazards of regional significance for Portland, Maine. The pilot study was performed by Argonne National Laboratory to identify differences in spatial rainfall distributions between the radar-derived and rain-gauge rainfall datasets and to evaluate their impacts on urban flooding. The flooding impact analysis utilized a high-resolution 2-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic model (15 ft by 15 ft) incorporating the buildings, streets, stream channels, hydraulic structures, an existing city storm drain system, and assuming a storm surge along the coast coincident with a heavy rainfall event. Two historical storm events from April 16, 2007, and September 29, 2015, were selected for evaluation. The radar-derived rainfall data at a 200-m resolution provide spatially-varied rainfall patterns with a wide range of intensities for each event. The resultant maximum flood depth using data from a single rain gauge within the study area could be off (either under- or over-estimated) by more than 10% in the 2007 storm and more than 60% in the 2015 storm compared to the radar-derived rainfall data. The model results also suggest that the inundation area with a flow depth at or greater than 0.5 ft could reach 11% (2007 storm) and 17% (2015 storm) of the total study area, respectively. The lowland areas within the neighborhoods of North Deering, East Deering, East and West Baysides and northeastern Parkside, appear to be more vulnerable to the flood hazard in both storm events. The high-resolution 2-D hydrodynamic model with high-resolution radar-derived rainfall data provides an excellent tool for detailed urban flood analysis and vulnerability assessment. The model developed in this study could be potentially used to evaluate any proposed mitigation measures and optimize their effects in the future for Portland, ME.

  18. Economic impacts of climate change. Flooding and salinity in scenarios, models and cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonkhoff, W.; Koops, O.; Van der Krogt, R.; Oude Essink, G.; Rietveld, E.

    2008-07-01

    In this report, climatic and economic scenarios are combined and future risks are calculated for the consequences of climate change, such as a rising sea level, flooding, extreme draughts and salinity. The calculation of these economic effects of climate change are based on climate scenarios of the KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute), TNO's RAEM model (Spatial General Economic Model), the high tide information system of the Dutch Ministry of Waterways and Public Works and the Space scanner of the Environmental Assessment Agency. Next to information on scenarios and models, this report also addresses damage calculations of flooding near Lopik and Ter Heide. The report ends with policy recommendations for adaptation policy. [mk] [nl

  19. Testing an innovative framework for flood forecasting, monitoring and mapping in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

    2017-04-01

    Between May and June 2016, France was hit by severe floods, particularly in the Loire and Seine river basins. In this work, we use this case study to test an innovative framework for flood forecasting, mapping and monitoring. More in detail, the system integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. We explore in detail the performance of each component of the system, demonstrating the improvements in respect to stand-alone flood forecasting and monitoring systems. We show how the performances of the forecasting component can be refined using the real-time feedback from social media monitoring to identify which areas were flooded, to evaluate the flood intensity, and therefore to correct impact estimations. Moreover, we show how the integration with impact forecast and social media monitoring can improve the timeliness and efficiency of satellite based emergency mapping, and reduce the chances of missing areas where flooding is already happening. These results illustrate how the new integrated approach leads to a better and earlier decision making and a timely evaluation of impacts.

  20. Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 1 - Reconstruction of Hurricane Harvey Flooding for Harris County, TX using a GPU-accelerated 2D flood model for post-flood hazard analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalyanapu, A. J.; Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey that made landfall in the southern Texas this August is one of the most destructive hurricanes during the 2017 hurricane season. During its active period, many areas in coastal Texas region received more than 40 inches of rain. This downpour caused significant flooding resulting in about 77 casualties, displacing more than 30,000 people, inundating hundreds of thousands homes and is currently estimated to have caused more than $70 billion in direct damage. One of the significantly affected areas is Harris County where the city of Houston, TX is located. Covering over two HUC-8 drainage basins ( 2702 mi2), this county experienced more than 80% of its annual average rainfall during this event. This study presents an effort to reconstruct flooding caused by extreme rainfall due to Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. This computationally intensive task was performed at a 30-m spatial resolution using a rapid flood model called Flood2D-GPU, a graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated model, on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Titan Supercomputer. For this task, the hourly rainfall estimates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimate were fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to estimate flow hydrographs at 69 locations for Flood2D-GPU simulation. Preliminary results of the simulation including flood inundation extents, maps of flood depths and inundation duration will be presented. Future efforts will focus on calibrating and validating the simulation results and assessing the flood damage for better understanding the impacts made by Hurricane Harvey.

  1. Flash Floods Simulation using a Physical-Based Hydrological Model at Different Hydroclimatic Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saber, Mohamed; Kamil Yilmaz, Koray

    2016-04-01

    Currently, flash floods are seriously increasing and affecting many regions over the world. Therefore, this study will focus on two case studies; Wadi Abu Subeira, Egypt as arid environment, and Karpuz basin, Turkey as Mediterranean environment. The main objective of this work is to simulate flash floods at both catchments considering the hydrometeorological differences between them which in turn effect their flash flood behaviors. An integrated methodology incorporating Hydrological River Basin Environmental Assessment Model (Hydro-BEAM) and remote sensing observations was devised. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) were compared with the rain gauge network at the target basins to estimate the bias in an effort to further use it effectively in simulation of flash floods. Based on the preliminary results of flash floods simulation on both basins, we found that runoff behaviors of flash floods are different due to the impacts of climatology, hydrological and topographical conditions. Also, the simulated surface runoff hydrographs are reasonably coincide with the simulated ones. Consequently, some mitigation strategies relying on this study could be introduced to help in reducing the flash floods disasters at different climate regions. This comparison of different climatic basins would be a reasonable implication for the potential impact of climate change on the flash floods frequencies and occurrences.

  2. Interactive Web-based Floodplain Simulation System for Realistic Experiments of Flooding and Flood Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, I.

    2013-12-01

    Recent developments in web technologies make it easy to manage and visualize large data sets with general public. Novel visualization techniques and dynamic user interfaces allow users to create realistic environments, and interact with data to gain insight from simulations and environmental observations. The floodplain simulation system is a web-based 3D interactive flood simulation environment to create real world flooding scenarios. The simulation systems provides a visually striking platform with realistic terrain information, and water simulation. Students can create and modify predefined scenarios, control environmental parameters, and evaluate flood mitigation techniques. The web-based simulation system provides an environment to children and adults learn about the flooding, flood damage, and effects of development and human activity in the floodplain. The system provides various scenarios customized to fit the age and education level of the users. This presentation provides an overview of the web-based flood simulation system, and demonstrates the capabilities of the system for various flooding and land use scenarios.

  3. Levee reliability analyses for various flood return periods - a case study in southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, W.-C.; Yu, H.-W.; Weng, M.-C.

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, heavy rainfall conditions have caused disasters around the world. To prevent losses by floods, levees have often been constructed in inundation-prone areas. This study performed reliability analyses for the Chiuliao First Levee in southern Taiwan. The failure-related parameters were the water level, the scouring depth, and the in situ friction angle. Three major failure mechanisms were considered: the slope sliding failure of the levee and the sliding and overturning failures of the retaining wall. When the variability of the in situ friction angle and the scouring depth are considered for various flood return periods, the variations of the factor of safety for the different failure mechanisms show that the retaining wall sliding and overturning failures are more sensitive to the change of the friction angle. When the flood return period is greater than 2 years, the levee could fail with slope sliding for all values of the water level difference. The results of levee stability analysis considering the variability of different parameters could aid engineers in designing the levee cross sections, especially with potential failure mechanisms in mind.

  4. Health impacts of floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Weiwei; FitzGerald, Gerard Joseph; Clark, Michele; Hou, Xiang-Yu

    2010-01-01

    Floods are the most common hazard to cause disasters and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. The impact of floods on the human community is related directly to the location and topography of the area, as well as human demographics and characteristics of the built environment. The aim of this study is to identify the health impacts of disasters and the underlying causes of health impacts associated with floods. A conceptual framework is developed that may assist with the development of a rational and comprehensive approach to prevention, mitigation, and management. This study involved an extensive literature review that located >500 references, which were analyzed to identify common themes, findings, and expert views. The findings then were distilled into common themes. The health impacts of floods are wide ranging, and depend on a number of factors. However, the health impacts of a particular flood are specific to the particular context. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, injuries, hypothermia, and animal bites. Health risks also are associated with the evacuation of patients, loss of health workers, and loss of health infrastructure including essential drugs and supplies. In the medium-term, infected wounds, complications of injury, poisoning, poor mental health, communicable diseases, and starvation are indirect effects of flooding. In the long-term, chronic disease, disability, poor mental health, and poverty-related diseases including malnutrition are the potential legacy. This article proposes a structured approach to the classification of the health impacts of floods and a conceptual framework that demonstrates the relationships between floods and the direct and indirect health consequences.

  5. Flood Mitigation and Response: Comparing the Great Midwest Floods of 1993 and 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    Robert Holmes and Heidi Koontz , “Two 500-Year Floods Within 15 Years—What are the Odds?,” http://64.233.167.104/custom?q...implies a 1-in- 100 (or 1 percent) chance a flood of that magnitude will occur in a given year. Robert Holmes and Heidi Koontz , “Two 500-Year Floods...Fact Sheet 2004-3024 (U.S. Geological Survey: May2004). 92 ______ and Koontz , Heidi. “Two 500-Year Floods Within 15 Years—What are the Odds

  6. Probabilistic, Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT-FLEMO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2017-04-01

    Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Floods of December 1964 and January 1965 in the Far Western States; Part 1 Description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waananen, A.O.; Harris, D.D.; Williams, R.C.

    1971-01-01

    The floods of December 1964 and January 1965 in the Far Western States were extreme; in many areas, the greatest in the history of recorded streamflow and substantially greater than those of December 1955. An unusually large area--Oregon, most of Idaho, northern California, southern Washington, and small areas in western and northern Nevada--was involved. It exceeded the area flooded in 1955. Outstanding features included recordbreaking peak discharges, high sediment concentrations, large sediment loads, and extensive flood damage. The loss of 47 lives and direct property damage of more than $430 million was attributable to the floods. Yet, storage in reservoirs and operation of flood-control facilities were effective in preventing far greater damages in many areas, particularly in the Central Valley in California and the Willamette River basin in Oregon. The floods were caused by three principal storms during the period December 19 to January 31. The December 19-23 storm was the greatest in overall intensity and areal extent. Crests occurred on many major streams December 23, 1964, 9 years to the day after the great flood of December 23, 1955. The January 2-7 storm produced extreme floods in some basins in California. The January 21-31 storm produced maximum stages in some streams in northeastern Oregon and southeastern Washington and a repetition of high flows in part of the Willamette River basin and in some basins in coastal Oregon. All the storms, and particularly the warm torrential rain December 21-23, reflected the combined effect of moist unstable airmasses, strong west-southwest winds, and mountain ranges oriented nearly at right angles to the flow of air. High air temperatures and strong winds associated with the storms caused melting of snow, and the meltwater augmented the rain that fell on frozen ground. The coastal areas of northern California and southern Oregon had measurable rain on as many as 50 days in December and January. A maximum

  8. The probability of flooding wave occurrence and the vulnerability of the Kosovo territory settlements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valjarević Aleksandar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The work displays the presumed laws of flooding waves which would occur if the 1976 situation when the great floods in Kosovo happened reoccurred again. On a 1:300000 multilayer map of Kosovo and Metohia, there are areas which would have been flooded in case of a maximum flooding wave, and what is also shown is the areas which were covered in water as the average was measured, including the areas used as projects of minimal flooding wave value. There is a layer showing the points with regular flood defense, including the places where protection needs to establish. The map includes the ratio of 1:300000, whilst the areas are calculated with the help of processing their dynamic static’s, as well as using the formulae Gumbel Distribution and Weibull Formula. The data have been calculated with their maximum value, including the average and the minimum of flooding period embracing the time of 40 years. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III44006 i br. 176019

  9. Impacts of floods on dysentery in Xinxiang city, China, during 2004–2010: a time-series Poisson analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Wei; Ding, Guoyong; Li, Yifei; Li, Hongkai; Jiang, Baofa

    2014-01-01

    Background Xinxiang, a city in Henan Province, suffered from frequent floods due to persistent and heavy precipitation from 2004 to 2010. In the same period, dysentery was a common public health problem in Xinxiang, with the proportion of reported cases being the third highest among all the notified infectious diseases. Objectives We focused on dysentery disease consequences of different degrees of floods and examined the association between floods and the morbidity of dysentery on the basis of longitudinal data during the study period. Design A time-series Poisson regression model was conducted to examine the relationship between 10 times different degrees of floods and the monthly morbidity of dysentery from 2004 to 2010 in Xinxiang. Relative risks (RRs) of moderate and severe floods on the morbidity of dysentery were calculated in this paper. In addition, we estimated the attributable contributions of moderate and severe floods to the morbidity of dysentery. Results A total of 7591 cases of dysentery were notified in Xinxiang during the study period. The effect of floods on dysentery was shown with a 0-month lag. Regression analysis showed that the risk of moderate and severe floods on the morbidity of dysentery was 1.55 (95% CI: 1.42–1.670) and 1.74 (95% CI: 1.56–1.94), respectively. The attributable risk proportions (ARPs) of moderate and severe floods to the morbidity of dysentery were 35.53 and 42.48%, respectively. Conclusions This study confirms that floods have significantly increased the risk of dysentery in the study area. In addition, severe floods have a higher proportional contribution to the morbidity of dysentery than moderate floods. Public health action should be taken to avoid and control a potential risk of dysentery epidemics after floods. PMID:25098726

  10. A Novel Dual Traffic/Flash Flood Monitoring System Using Passive Infrared/Ultrasonic Sensors

    KAUST Repository

    Mousa, Mustafa

    2015-10-19

    Floods are the most common type of natural disaster, causing thousands of casualties every year. Among these events, urban flash floods are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur, and because of the high concentration of population in cities. Since most flash flood casualties are caused by a lack of information, it is critical to generate accurate and detailed warnings of flash floods. However, deploying an infrastructure that solely monitor flash floods makes little economic sense, since the average periodicity of catastrophic flash floods exceeds the lifetime of a typical sensor network. To address this issue, we propose a new sensing device that can simultaneously monitor urban flash floods and another phenomenon of interest (traffic congestion on the present case). This sensing device is based on the combination of an ultrasonic rangefinder with one or multiple remote temperature sensors. We show an implementation of this device, and illustrate its performance in both traffic flow and flash flood sensing. Field data shows that the sensor can detect vehicles with a 99% accuracy, in addition to estimating their speed and classifying them in function of their length. The same sensor can also monitor urban water levels with an accuracy of less than 2 cm. Two of the sensors have been deployed in a flood prone area, where they captured the only (minor) flash flood that occurred over the one-year test period, with no false detection, and an agreement in the estimated water level estimate (during the flash flood event) of about 2 cm.

  11. A Novel Dual Traffic/Flash Flood Monitoring System Using Passive Infrared/Ultrasonic Sensors

    KAUST Repository

    Mousa, Mustafa; Odat, Enas M.; Claudel, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Floods are the most common type of natural disaster, causing thousands of casualties every year. Among these events, urban flash floods are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur, and because of the high concentration of population in cities. Since most flash flood casualties are caused by a lack of information, it is critical to generate accurate and detailed warnings of flash floods. However, deploying an infrastructure that solely monitor flash floods makes little economic sense, since the average periodicity of catastrophic flash floods exceeds the lifetime of a typical sensor network. To address this issue, we propose a new sensing device that can simultaneously monitor urban flash floods and another phenomenon of interest (traffic congestion on the present case). This sensing device is based on the combination of an ultrasonic rangefinder with one or multiple remote temperature sensors. We show an implementation of this device, and illustrate its performance in both traffic flow and flash flood sensing. Field data shows that the sensor can detect vehicles with a 99% accuracy, in addition to estimating their speed and classifying them in function of their length. The same sensor can also monitor urban water levels with an accuracy of less than 2 cm. Two of the sensors have been deployed in a flood prone area, where they captured the only (minor) flash flood that occurred over the one-year test period, with no false detection, and an agreement in the estimated water level estimate (during the flash flood event) of about 2 cm.

  12. GIS Support for Flood Rescue

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liang, Gengsheng; Mioc, Darka; Anton, François

    2007-01-01

    Under flood events, the ground traffic is blocked in and around the flooded area due to damages to roads and bridges. The traditional transportation network may not always help people to make a right decision for evacuation. In order to provide dynamic road information needed for flood rescue, we...... to retrieve the shortest and safest route in Fredericton road network during flood event. It enables users to make a timely decision for flood rescue. We are using Oracle Spatial to deal with emergency situations that can be applied to other constrained network applications as well....... developed an adaptive web-based transportation network application using Oracle technology. Moreover, the geographic relationships between the road network and flood areas are taken into account. The overlay between the road network and flood polygons is computed on the fly. This application allows users...

  13. Assessment of flood Response Characteristics to Urbanization and extreme flood events-Typhoons at Cheongju, Chungbuk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, HyungJoon; Lee, Hyosang; Hwang, Myunggyu; Jang, Sukhwan

    2016-04-01

    The changes of land use influence on the flood characteristics, which depend on rainfall runoff procedures in the catchment. This study assesses the changes of flood characteristics due to land use changes between 1997 and 2012. The catchment model (HEC-HMS) is calibrated with flood events of 1990's and 2000's respectively, then the design rainfall of 100, 200, 500year return period are applied to this model, which represent the catchment in 1990's and 2000's, to assess the flood peaks. Then the extreme flood events (i.e., 6 typhoon events) are applied to assess the flood responses. The results of comparison between 1990's and 2000's show that the flood peak and level of 2000's are increasing and time to peak of 2000's is decreasing comparing to those of 1990's :3% to 78% increase in flood peak, 3% in flood level and 10.2% to 16% decrease in time to peak in 100year return period flood. It is due to decreasing of the farmland area (2.18%), mountainous area (8.88%), and increasing of the urbanization of the area (5.86%). This study also estimates the responses to extreme flood events. The results of 2000's show that the increasing of the flood peak and time to peak comparing to 1990's. It indicates that the extreme rainfall is more responsible at unurbanized catchment ( 2000's), which resulting with a 11% increasing of the peak volume. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  14. Restoration potential of sedge meadows in hand-cultivated soybean fields in northeastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guodong; Middleton, Beth; Jiang, Ming

    2013-01-01

    Sedge meadows can be difficult to restore from farmed fields if key structural dominants are missing from propagule banks. In hand-cultivated soybean fields in northeastern China, we asked if tussock-forming Carex and other wetland species were present as seed or asexual propagules. In the Sanjiang Plain, China, we compared the seed banks, vegetative propagules (below-ground) and standing vegetation of natural and restored sedge meadows, and hand-cultivated soybean fields in drained and flooded conditions. We found that important wetland species survived cultivation as seeds for some time (e.g. Calamogrostis angustifolia and Potamogeton crispus) and as field weeds (e.g. C. angustifolia and Phragmites australis). Key structural species were missing in these fields, for example, Carex meyeriana. We also observed that sedge meadows restored without planting or seeding lacked tussock-forming sedges. The structure of the seed bank was related to experimental water regime, and field environments of tussock height, thatch depth, and presence of burning as based on Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling analysis. To re-establish the structure imposed by tussock sedges, specific technologies might be developed to encourage the development of tussocks in restored sedge meadows.

  15. “Expect More Floods In 2013”: An analysis of flood preparedness in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In 2013, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) issued a prediction of heavy rainfall with consequent flooding in some major cities of Nigeria particularly Ibadan. In light of the country's previous flood experiences, citizens and government were promptly alerted and advised to be fully prepared for imminent floods.

  16. selecting suitable drainage pattern to minimize flooding in sangere

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mr Takana

    heights obtained from the ground survey using Total Station. ILWIS 3.3 ... drainage pattern to minimize the effect of flood hazard using the ... as linkages between upland and downstream areas;. Bhaskar .... A case study of urban city. Pp151.

  17. Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

    2007-12-01

    Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

  18. Response to state comments on the revised draft northeastern regional characterization reports for the Crystalline Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-08-01

    The purpose of this document is to respond to the comments received from the States of the Northeastern Region on the revised draft Northeastern Regional Characterization Reports (RCRs). The responses in this document indicate the manner in which the suggestions or comments received have been considered in modifying the revised draft Northeastern RCRs. Both general comments related to the overall Crystalline Repository Project (CRP) and comments on specific sections of the RCRs are addressed. This document responds to Northeastern State comments on both the revised draft Northeastern Regional Geologic Characterization Report (RGCR) and the revised draft Northeastern Regional Environmental Characterization Report (RECR)

  19. [Study on influence of floods on bacillary dysentery incidence in Liaoning province, 2004 -2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X; Liu, Z D; Han, D B; Xu, Y Q; Jiang, B F

    2016-05-01

    To understand the influence of floods on bacillary dysentery in Liaoning province. The monthly surveillance data of bacillary dysentery, floods, meteorological and demographic data in Liaoning from 2004 to 2010 were collected. Panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Liaoning. The mean monthly morbidity of bacillary dysentery was 2.17 per 100 000 during the study period, the bacillary dysentery cases mainly occurred in during July-September. Spearman correlation analysis showed that no lagged effect was detected in the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery. After adjusting the influence of meteorological factors, panel data analysis showed that the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery existed and the incidence rate ratio was 1.439 4(95%CI: 1.408 1-1.471 4). Floods could significantly increase the risk of bacillary dysentery for population in Liaoning.

  20. Diversion Canal to Decrease Flooding (Case Study : Kebon Jati-Kalibata Segment, Ciliwung River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrawati Dian

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The flood in Jakarta has become a national concern in Indonesia. It is a haunting disaster, with a high probability to happen when heavy rainfalls in Jakarta and/or its upstream area. Based on data that was provided by Public Work Agency of DKI Jakarta, there are 78 vulnerable points of inundation in which, most of them are located in Ciliwung river basin, commonly in the meandering segments. One of the worst flooding occurs in Pancoran, at Kebonjati to Kalibata segment in particular. The river discharge in this segment is much higher as compared to the carrying capacity. In addition, this area has a high density of population and thus, difficult to increase the *river capacity* by enlarging the river dimension. In this research, a closed diversion canal is proposed as a solution. The effectiveness of the solution is evaluated using a numerical model, HEC-RAS 4.1. The diversion canal is designed as two culverts, with 2.0 m in diameter. Nevertheless, hydraulic jump may occur at the outlet of the canal due to the relatively steep slope. Therefore, the canal outlet should be designed accordingly. A Hydraulic structure such as a stilling basin can be employed to reduce the energy. The results show that the diversion canal has a good performance in decreasing water level and flood discharge in the study area. The canal has the capacity of 17,72 m3/sec and succesfully decreases the water level by 4.71 – 5.66 m from flood level for 2 – 100 years returned period.