WorldWideScience

Sample records for flood event impact

  1. Impacts of Floods Events on Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, E.; Pacetti, T.; Rulli, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    The analysis of the interactions among natural disasters and food security is particularly significant for developing countries where food availability (one of the four pillars of food security together with access, utilization and stability) can be highly jeopardize by extreme events that damage the primary access to food, i.e. the agriculture. The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of flood events on food security for two disastrous flood events in Bangladesh on 2007 and in Pakistan on 2010, selected here as case studies based on the existing literature related to extreme floods.The adopted methodology integrates remote sensing data, agricultural statistics, and water footprint values in order to (i) evaluating the potentially affected agricultural areas; (ii) converting the affected areas into crop loss; (iii) estimating the associated calories and water footprint losses. In Bangladesh, the estimated lost rice is around 12.5% of the total potential production, which implies a 5.3% calories loss with respect to the total potential energy provided by rice and 4.4% of total WF associated to national food supply. In Pakistan, the results show a crops loss of 19% for sugarcane and 40% for rice, with a related calories loss of 8.5% and a WF loss of 13.5%.The results highlight the countries vulnerability to flood, being both countries strongly dependent on local agricultural production. The 2007 flood event reflected critically upon Bangladeshi food security, almost doubling the existing food deficit. The same happened in Pakistan where an already scarce food supply has been worsened by the 2010 flood.Method results are fully repeatable; whereas, for remote sensed data the sources of data are valid worldwide and the data regarding land use and crops characteristics are strongly site specific, which need to be carefully evaluated.These case studies stress the importance of integrating different analysis approaches to carry out an assessment of the

  2. Visualization of the Impact of the Catastrophic Flooding Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Moreri, K. K.

    maps. This can greatly help decision makers with the emergency measures and mitigation in most of the cases. In this article, we present a case study about mapping of flood risks due to a dam burst showing risk maps of flood hazards and available emergency facilities and their significance for risk...... prevention and mitigation....

  3. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

  4. Impact of floods induced by extreme precipitation events on public health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavroulis, Spyridon; Mavrouli, Maria; Lekkas, Efthymios; Tsakris, Athanassios

    2017-04-01

    Hydrometeorological disasters comprise the most reported type of natural disaster, and floods account for the majority of disasters in this category in both developed and developing countries. Flooding can lead to extensive morbidity and mortality and pose multiple risks to public health throughout the world. This study involved an extensive and systematic literature review of 124 research publications related to public health impact of 98 floods that occurred globally (Oceania 4, Africa 9, America 22, Europe 24, Asia 39) from 1942 to 2014. The inclusion criteria were literature type comprising journal articles and official reports, natural disaster type including floods induced after extreme precipitation events (accumulation of rainwater in poorly-drained environments, riverine and flash floods), population type including humans, and outcome measure characterized by infectious diseases (ID) incidence increase. The potential post-flood ID are classified into 13 groups including rodent-borne (reported in 38 of the total 98 events, 38.78%), water-borne (33, 33.67%), vector-borne (25, 25.51%), respiratory (19, 19.39%), fecal-oral (14, 14.29%), skin (9, 9.18%), blood-borne (4, 4.08%), eye (3, 3.06%), soil-related (3, 3.06%), ear (2, 2.04%), fungal (1, 1.02%) and wound-borne (1, 1.02%) ID. Based on available age and genre data, it is concluded that the most vulnerable population groups are predominantly young children (age ≤ 5 years) and male. The most fatal post-flood ID are leptospirosis and diarrhea followed by respiratory tract infections. The detected risk factors include (1) poor economic status and living in flood prone areas, (2) destruction of infrastructures, disruption of public utilities and interruption of basic public health services such as vector control programs, (3) direct physical exposure to sewage-polluted flood water, (4) lack of adequate potable water and water-supply from contaminated ponds and tube wells along with lack of distribution of

  5. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    events and flood risk in India. P Guhathakurta∗. , O P Sreejith and P A Menon. India Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune 411 005, India. ∗ e-mail: pguhathakurta@rediffmail.com. The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to ...

  6. The impact of extreme flooding events and anthropogenic stressors on the macrobenthic communities’ dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, P. G.; Raffaelli, D.; Lillebø, A. I.; Verdelhos, T.; Pardal, M. A.

    2008-02-01

    Marine and coastal environments are among the most ecologically and socio-economically important habitats on Earth. However, climate change associated with a variety of anthropogenic stressors (e.g. eutrophication) may interact to produce combined impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, which in turn will have profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. Over period 1980-2000, the environment of the Mondego estuary, Portugal, has deteriorated through eutrophication, manifested in the replacement of seagrasses by opportunistic macroalgae, degradation of water quality and increased turbidity, and the system has also experienced extreme flood events. A restoration plan was implemented in 1998 which aimed to reverse the eutrophication effects, especially to restore the original natural seagrass ( Zostera noltii) community. This paper explores the interactions between extreme weather events (e.g. intense floods) and anthropogenic stressors (e.g. eutrophication) on the dynamics of the macrobenthic assemblages and the socio-economic implications that follow. We found that during the previous decade, the intensification of extreme flooding events had significant effects on the structure and functioning of macrobenthic communities, specifically a decline in total biomass, a decline in species richness and a decline in suspension feeders. However, the earlier eutrophication process also strongly modified the macrobenthic community, seen as a decline in species richness, increase in detritivores and a decline in herbivores together with a significant increase in small deposit-feeding polychaetes. After the implementation of the management plan, macrobenthic assemblages seemed to be recovering from eutrophication, but it is argued here that those earlier impacts reduced system stability and the resilience of the macrobenthic assemblages, so that its ability to cope with other stressors was compromised. Thus

  7. Physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise and low probability flooding events on coastal communities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Prime

    Full Text Available Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to "surge alone" event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as "brick course" maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community.

  8. Physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise and low probability flooding events on coastal communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prime, Thomas; Brown, Jennifer M; Plater, Andrew J

    2015-01-01

    Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide) in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to "surge alone" event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as "brick course" maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community.

  9. Impacts of extreme events of drought and flood on local communities of Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borma, L. D.; Roballo, S.; Zauner, M.; Nascimento, V. F.

    2013-05-01

    contingent of about 50% of rural homeless during this event. On the ther side, during the extreme droughts, crops and cattle are likely to perish due to drought. The prolonged dry season threatens local ichthyofauna, promoting an increase in fish mortality. In 1997/98 and 2005 episodes were recorded about 3 months of negative anomalies of discharge, while in 2010, there were about 4 months of negative anomalies during the low water period. According to the data obtained from the Civil Defense, flood events would be more impactful to the local community than the drought ones. However, the absence of quantitative indicators hinders a more precise analysis of the real impacts of drought and flood events in the region. In fact, during the dry season two aspects of extreme importance need to be better addressed: i) the fact that the population of one of the wettest regions of the planet does not have a good water supply for human being, and ii) what are the impacts of extreme drought on the cycle of reproduction of species of local fish fauna?

  10. Aquatic chemistry of flood events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klavins, Maris; Rodinov, Valery

    2015-04-01

    During flood events a major discharge of water and dissolved substances happens. However flood waters very much differs from water composition during low-water events. Aquatic chemistry of flood waters also is of importance at the calculation of loadings as well as they might have major impact on water quality in receiving water bodies (lakes, coastal waters and seas). Further flood regime of rivers is subjected to changes due to climate change and growing impact of human activities. The aim of this study is to analyse water chemical composition changes during flood events in respect to low water periods, character of high-water events and characteristics of the corresponding basin. Within this study, the concentrations of major dissolved substances in the major rivers of Latvia have been studied using monitoring data as well as field studies during high water/ low water events. As territories of studies flows of substances in river basins/subbasins with different land-use character and different anthropogenic impacts has been studied to calculate export values depending on the land-use character. Impact of relations between dissolved substances and relations in respect to budgets has been calculated. The dynamics of DOC, nutrient and major dissolved substance flows depending on landuse pattern and soil properties in Latvia has been described, including emissions by industrial and agricultural production. In these changes evidently climate change signals can be identified. The water chemistry of a large number of rivers during flood events has been determined and the possible impact of water chemical composition on DOC and nutrient flows has been evaluated. Long-term changes (1977-2013) of concentrations of dissolved substances do not follow linear trends but rather show oscillating patterns, indicating impact of natural factors, e.g. changing hydrological and climatic conditions. There is a positive correlation between content of inert dissolved substances and

  11. Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the

  12. Validation of the Impact of Event Scale-Revised for adolescents experiencing the floods and mudslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Sheng Chen

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to validate the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R for adolescents who had experienced the floods and mudslides caused by Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan. The internal consistency, construct validity, and criteria validity of the instrument were examined. Principal component analysis followed by an oblique rotation was used to derive a three-factor solution. These factors were labeled intrusion, hyperarousal, and avoidance; all three factors together accounted for 58.1% of the variance. The total Cronbach’s alpha of 0.94 reflected the good internal consistency of the instrument. With reference to diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder, the IES-R cutoff point for posttraumatic stress disorder was 19 of 20 with a sensitivity of 85.7% and specificity of 84.1%. In conclusion, the IES-R can be used as a reliable and valid instrument when evaluating psychological distress among adolescents who have experienced a natural disaster, such as flooding and mudslides.

  13. Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

  14. The Impacts of Episodic Storm and Flood Events on Carbon and Sediment Delivery to Gulf of Mexico Sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiner, K. M.; Carlin, J. A.; Sayers, L.; Swenson, J.

    2017-12-01

    Marine sediments are an important long-term reservoir for both recently fixed organic carbon (OC) and ancient rock derived OC, much of which is delivered by rivers. The ratio between these two sources of OC in turn regulates atmospheric levels of oxygen and carbon dioxide over geologic time, making this riverine delivery of OC, primarily carried by sediments, an important flux in the global carbon cycle. However, while the overall magnitude of these fluxes are relatively well known, it remains to be determined the importance of episodic events, like storms and floods, in the flux of OC from terrestrial to marine environments. Here, we present data from a 34 cm core collected from the Gulf of Mexico at a mid-shelf distal depocenter for the Brazos River in 2015, during a strong El Nino when that area of the country was experiencing 100-year flood events and anomalously high river flow. Based on analysis of the radioactive isotope 7Be, approximately the top 7-8 cm of the sediment in this core was deposited during this flood event. Both bulk elemental (C, N, and stable carbon isotopes) and chemical biomarker (lignin-phenol) data has been combined to provide information of the origin and chemistry of the OC in this core both before and during flooding. C:N and d13C indicate a mixture of marine-sourced and terrestrially-sourced OC throughout the length of the core with very little variation between the flood layer and deeper sediments. However, lignin-phenol concentrations are higher in flood-deposited sediment, indicating that this sediment is likely terrestrially-sourced. Lignin-phenol indicators of OC degradation state (Acid:Aldehyde ratios) indicate that flood sediment is fresher and less degraded than deeper sediments. Taken together, these results indicate that 1. Bulk analyses are not enough to determine OC source and the importance of flood events in OC cycling and 2. Episodic events like floods could have an oversized impact on OC storage in marine sediments.

  15. Seawater-flooding events and impact on freshwater lenses of low-lying islands: Controlling factors, basic management and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingerich, Stephen B.; Voss, Clifford I.; Johnson, Adam G.

    2017-08-01

    An unprecedented set of hydrologic observations was collected after the Dec 2008 seawater-flooding event on Roi-Namur, Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands. By two days after the seawater flooding that occurred at the beginning of dry season, the observed salinity of water withdrawn by the island's main skimming well increased to 100% seawater concentration, but by ten days later already decreased to only 10-20% of seawater fraction. However, the damaging impact on the potability of the groundwater supply (when pumped water had concentrations above 1% seawater fraction) lasted 22 months longer. The data collected make possible analyses of the hydrologic factors that control recovery and management of the groundwater-supply quality on Roi-Namur and on similar low-lying islands. With the observed data as a guide, three-dimensional numerical-model simulation analyses reveal how recovery is controlled by the island's hydrology. These also allow evaluation of the efficacy of basic water-quality management/mitigation alternatives and elucidate how groundwater withdrawal and timing of the seawater-flooding event affect the length of recovery. Simulations show that, as might be expected, by adding surplus captured rainwater as artificial recharge, the freshwater-lens recovery period (after which potable groundwater may again be produced) can be shortened, with groundwater salinity remaining lower even during the dry season, a period during which no artificial recharge is applied. Simulations also show that the recovery period is not lengthened appreciably by groundwater withdrawals during recovery. Simulations further show that had the flooding event occurred at the start of the wet season, the recovery period would have been about 25% (5.5 months) shorter than actually occurred during the monitored flood that occurred at the dry-season start. Finally, analyses show that artificial recharge improves freshwater-lens water quality, making possible longer use of

  16. Impact of agricultural management on pluvial flash floods - Case study of an extreme event observed in Austria in 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumassegger, Simon; Achleitner, Stefan; Kohl, Bernhard

    2017-04-01

    heavily influenced by land use matches well with the observed flow patterns during the storm event in summer 2016. The results clearly indicate the ability to reduce pluvial flash flood impacts by changing agricultural management practices.

  17. Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

    2015-09-01

    In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

  18. Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbregts, Z.; Schellen, H.L.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Blades, N.

    2014-01-01

    Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

  19. Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbregts, Z.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.; Blades, N.; Mahdavi, A.; Mertens, B.

    2013-01-01

    Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

  20. Seawater-flooding events and impact on freshwater lenses of low-lying islands: Controlling factors, basic management and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingerich, Stephen B.; Voss, Clifford I.; Johnson, Adam G.

    2017-01-01

    An unprecedented set of hydrologic observations was collected after the Dec 2008 seawater-flooding event on Roi-Namur, Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands. By two days after the seawater flooding that occurred at the beginning of dry season, the observed salinity of water withdrawn by the island’s main skimming well increased to 100% seawater concentration, but by ten days later already decreased to only 10–20% of seawater fraction. However, the damaging impact on the potability of the groundwater supply (when pumped water had concentrations above 1% seawater fraction) lasted 22 months longer. The data collected make possible analyses of the hydrologic factors that control recovery and management of the groundwater-supply quality on Roi-Namur and on similar low-lying islands.With the observed data as a guide, three-dimensional numerical-model simulation analyses reveal how recovery is controlled by the island’s hydrology. These also allow evaluation of the efficacy of basic water-quality management/mitigation alternatives and elucidate how groundwater withdrawal and timing of the seawater-flooding event affect the length of recovery. Simulations show that, as might be expected, by adding surplus captured rainwater as artificial recharge, the freshwater-lens recovery period (after which potable groundwater may again be produced) can be shortened, with groundwater salinity remaining lower even during the dry season, a period during which no artificial recharge is applied. Simulations also show that the recovery period is not lengthened appreciably by groundwater withdrawals during recovery. Simulations further show that had the flooding event occurred at the start of the wet season, the recovery period would have been about 25% (5.5 months) shorter than actually occurred during the monitored flood that occurred at the dry-season start. Finally, analyses show that artificial recharge improves freshwater-lens water quality, making possible longer

  1. ICUD-0147 Extreme event statistics of urban pluvial floods – Return period assessment and rainfall variability impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tuyls, Damian Murla; Nielsen, Rasmus; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    2017-01-01

    A return period assessment of urban flood has been performed and its adhered impact of rainfall variability studied over a urban drainage catchment area in Aalborg, Denmark. Recorded rainfall from 7 rain gauges has been used, located in a range of 7.5Km and for a period varying form 18-37 years....... Return period of rainfall and flood at catchment and local scale has been estimated, its derived ambiguities analysed and the variability of rain gauge based rainfall investigated regarding to flood estimation results. Results show a clear contrast between rainfall and flood return period estimates...

  2. Health impacts of floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Weiwei; FitzGerald, Gerard Joseph; Clark, Michele; Hou, Xiang-Yu

    2010-01-01

    Floods are the most common hazard to cause disasters and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. The impact of floods on the human community is related directly to the location and topography of the area, as well as human demographics and characteristics of the built environment. The aim of this study is to identify the health impacts of disasters and the underlying causes of health impacts associated with floods. A conceptual framework is developed that may assist with the development of a rational and comprehensive approach to prevention, mitigation, and management. This study involved an extensive literature review that located >500 references, which were analyzed to identify common themes, findings, and expert views. The findings then were distilled into common themes. The health impacts of floods are wide ranging, and depend on a number of factors. However, the health impacts of a particular flood are specific to the particular context. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, injuries, hypothermia, and animal bites. Health risks also are associated with the evacuation of patients, loss of health workers, and loss of health infrastructure including essential drugs and supplies. In the medium-term, infected wounds, complications of injury, poisoning, poor mental health, communicable diseases, and starvation are indirect effects of flooding. In the long-term, chronic disease, disability, poor mental health, and poverty-related diseases including malnutrition are the potential legacy. This article proposes a structured approach to the classification of the health impacts of floods and a conceptual framework that demonstrates the relationships between floods and the direct and indirect health consequences.

  3. Adaptation to flood risk: Results of international paired flood event studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Di Baldassarre, G.; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Apel, H.; Aronica, G.T.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Bouwer, L.; Bubeck, P.; Caloiero, Tommaso; Chinh, Do. T.; Cortès, Maria; Gain, A.K.; Giampá, Vincenzo; Kuhlicke, C; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Carmen Llasat, M; Mård, Johanna; Matczak, Piotr; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Molinari, Daniela; Dung, N.V.; Petrucci, Olga; Schröter, Kai; Slager, Kymo; Thieken, A.H.; Ward, P.J.; Merz, B.

    2017-01-01

    As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in

  4. Drivers of flood damage on event level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Apel, H.

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk is dynamic and influenced by many processes related to hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Flood damage increased significantly over the past decades, however, resulting overall economic loss per event is an aggregated indicator and it is difficult to attribute causes to this increasing...... trend. Much has been learned about damaging processes during floods at the micro-scale, e.g. building level. However, little is known about the main factors determining the amount of flood damage on event level. Thus, we analyse and compare paired flood events, i.e. consecutive, similar damaging floods...... example are the 2002 and 2013 floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. The 2002 flood caused the highest economic damage (EUR 11600 million) due to a natural hazard event in Germany. Damage was so high due to extreme flood hazard triggered by extreme precipitation and a high number...

  5. Analysis of land cover change impact on flood events using remote sensing, GIS and hydrological models: a case study of the Nyando River Basin in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olang, L. O.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, land cover changes in the Nyando River basin (3500 km 2 ) of Kenya were analyzed and their impact of floods quantified. Three Landsat satellite images for 1973, 1986 and 2000 were acquired, processed and classified based on seven major land cover classes prevalent in the basin using a hybrid of supervised and non supervised classification procedures. The detected land cover changes, together with a DEM and a soil map of the basin, were then used to estimate physically based parameters for the selected hydrological models. The models were then used to estimate local and flood peak discharges and volumes arising from selected storm events for each state of the classified land cover dataset. To further understand how changes in the land cover may impact on the flood hydrology, three scenarios that represent quite extreme alternatives were formulated to study the possible bandwidth during floods. Land cover classification results revealed immense land degradation over the span of study. Forests reduced by an area of 488 km 2 representing a 20% decline, while agricultural fields expanded by 581 km 2 representing a 16% increase over the same period of time (1973-2000). Hydrological modeling results indicated that the basin underwent significant increase in the peak discharge value. The flood peak discharges in the whole basin were noted to have increased by at least 16% over the period of 1973 -2000.Flood volumes were also noted to have increased by at least 10% over the same period of time. (author) [de

  6. Freight economic vulnerabilities due to flooding events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Extreme weather events, and flooding in particular, have been occurring more often and with increased severity over the past decade, and there is reason to expect this trend will continue in the future due to a changing climate. Flooding events can u...

  7. Drivers of flood damage on event level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Apel, H.

    2016-01-01

    example are the 2002 and 2013 floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. The 2002 flood caused the highest economic damage (EUR 11600 million) due to a natural hazard event in Germany. Damage was so high due to extreme flood hazard triggered by extreme precipitation and a high number......-level mitigation measures, 3) more effective early warning and improved coordination of disaster response and 4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defence systems and their deliberate relocation. Thus, despite higher hydrological severity damage due to the 2013 flood was significantly lower than in 2002. In our...

  8. Pan-European stochastic flood event set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadlec, Martin; Pinto, Joaquim G.; He, Yi; Punčochář, Petr; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Manful, Desmond; Palán, Ladislav

    2017-04-01

    Impact Forecasting (IF), the model development center of Aon Benfield, has been developing a large suite of catastrophe flood models on probabilistic bases for individual countries in Europe. Such natural catastrophes do not follow national boundaries: for example, the major flood in 2016 was responsible for the Europe's largest insured loss of USD3.4bn and affected Germany, France, Belgium, Austria and parts of several other countries. Reflecting such needs, IF initiated a pan-European flood event set development which combines cross-country exposures with country based loss distributions to provide more insightful data to re/insurers. Because the observed discharge data are not available across the whole Europe in sufficient quantity and quality to permit a detailed loss evaluation purposes, a top-down approach was chosen. This approach is based on simulating precipitation from a GCM/RCM model chain followed by a calculation of discharges using rainfall-runoff modelling. IF set up this project in a close collaboration with Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) regarding the precipitation estimates and with University of East Anglia (UEA) in terms of the rainfall-runoff modelling. KIT's main objective is to provide high resolution daily historical and stochastic time series of key meteorological variables. A purely dynamical downscaling approach with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) is used to generate the historical time series, using re-analysis data as boundary conditions. The resulting time series are validated against the gridded observational dataset E-OBS, and different bias-correction methods are employed. The generation of the stochastic time series requires transfer functions between large-scale atmospheric variables and regional temperature and precipitation fields. These transfer functions are developed for the historical time series using reanalysis data as predictors and bias-corrected CCLM simulated precipitation and temperature as

  9. Analysis of external flooding events occurred in foreign nuclear power plant sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Dan; Cai Hankun; Xiao Zhi; An Hongzhen; Mao Huan

    2013-01-01

    This paper screens and studies 17 external flooding events occurred in foreign NPP sites, analysis the characteristic of external flooding events based on the source of the flooding, the impact on the building, systems and equipment, as well as the threat to nuclear safety. Furthermore, based on the experiences and lessons learned from Fukushima nuclear accident relating to external flooding and countermeasures carried out in the world, some suggestions are proposed in order to improve external flooding response capacity for Chinese NPPs. (authors)

  10. Flood impacts on a water distribution network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

    2017-12-01

    Floods cause damage to people, buildings and infrastructures. Water distribution systems are particularly exposed, since water treatment plants are often located next to the rivers. Failure of the system leads to both direct losses, for instance damage to equipment and pipework contamination, and indirect impact, since it may lead to service disruption and thus affect populations far from the event through the functional dependencies of the network. In this work, we present an analysis of direct and indirect damages on a drinking water supply system, considering the hazard of riverine flooding as well as the exposure and vulnerability of active system components. The method is based on interweaving, through a semi-automated GIS procedure, a flood model and an EPANET-based pipe network model with a pressure-driven demand approach, which is needed when modelling water distribution networks in highly off-design conditions. Impact measures are defined and estimated so as to quantify service outage and potential pipe contamination. The method is applied to the water supply system of the city of Florence, Italy, serving approximately 380 000 inhabitants. The evaluation of flood impact on the water distribution network is carried out for different events with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to estimate their residual functionality and to simulate failure scenarios. Results show that in the worst failure scenario (no residual functionality of the lifting station and a 500-year flood), 420 km of pipework would require disinfection with an estimated cost of EUR 21 million, which is about 0.5 % of the direct flood losses evaluated for buildings and contents. Moreover, if flood impacts on the water distribution network are considered, the population affected by the flood is up to 3 times the population directly flooded.

  11. Loss of life in flood events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Špitalar, Maruša

    2013-04-01

    Natural disasters per se give a negative connotation. They are destructive to material elements in a space, nature itself and represent a threat to peoples' lives and health. Floods, especially flash floods due to its power and happening suddenly cause extensive damage. Hence, they are hard to predict and are characterized with violent movement, lots of lives are lost. Floods are among natural hazards the one causing the highest number of fatalities. Having said that very important aspects are humans' vulnerability, risk perception, their behavior when confronted with hazardous situations and on the other hand issues related to adequate warning signs and canals of communication. It is very important to take into consideration this segments also and not mainly just structural measures. However the aim of this paper is to emphasis mainly the social aspects of floods. It consists of two main parts. First one refers to mans' vulnerability, risk perception when it comes to danger caused by rising waters and how does culture influences peoples' response and reaction to flood causalities. The second part consists of data about detailed information on circumstances of death that have been collected from several different sources from several EU countries. There has been also available information on the age and gender of people who lost lives in flood events. With gender males dominated among death people since tend to risk more in risky situations. There has been also defined a vulnerable age group among flood fatalities. Analysis of circumstance of death enabled us to define risky groups that are very important for flood managers. Further on this is very beneficial also for risk prevention, early warning systems and creating the best canals in order to information about upcoming danger would successfully reach people at hazardous areas and also for the others to avoid them.

  12. Impact of contaminants on aquatic systems and inundated sites with respect to flood events - In vitro biotests, chemical target analysis and fractionation methods

    OpenAIRE

    Wölz, Jan

    2009-01-01

    Scope of the present study is the development and application of aquatic in vitro bioassays and methods of effect-directed analysis (EDA). It aims at investigating contamination of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and pollution of inundated sites and riparian aquifer, respectively. In the first part of this study, SPM was sampled during flood events and toxicological activities were determined. The second part of the study dealt with possible conflict of interests between flood management (...

  13. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  14. Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuparu, Dana; Bachmann, Daniel; Bogaard, Tom; Twigt, Daniel; Verkade, Jan; de Bruijn, Karin; de Leeuw, Annemargreet

    2017-04-01

    Flood forecasts, warning and emergency response are important components in flood risk management. Most flood forecasting systems use models to translate weather predictions to forecasted discharges or water levels. However, this information is often not sufficient for real time decisions. A sound understanding of the reliability of embankments and flood dynamics is needed to react timely and reduce the negative effects of the flood. Where are the weak points in the dike system? When, how much and where the water will flow? When and where is the greatest impact expected? Model-based flood impact forecasting tries to answer these questions by adding new dimensions to the existing forecasting systems by providing forecasted information about: (a) the dike strength during the event (reliability), (b) the flood extent in case of an overflow or a dike failure (flood spread) and (c) the assets at risk (impacts). This work presents three study-cases in which such a set-up is applied. Special features are highlighted. Forecasting of dike strength. The first study-case focusses on the forecast of dike strength in the Netherlands for the river Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn and IJssel. A so-called reliability transformation is used to translate the predicted water levels at selected dike sections into failure probabilities during a flood event. The reliability of a dike section is defined by fragility curves - a summary of the dike strength conditional to the water level. The reliability information enhances the emergency management and inspections of embankments. Ensemble forecasting. The second study-case shows the setup of a flood impact forecasting system in Dumfries, Scotland. The existing forecasting system is extended with a 2D flood spreading model in combination with the Delft-FIAT impact model. Ensemble forecasts are used to make use of the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts, which is useful to quantify the certainty of a forecasted flood event. From global

  15. The impact of bathymetry input on flood simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanam, M.; Cohen, S.

    2017-12-01

    Flood prediction and mitigation systems are inevitable for improving public safety and community resilience all over the worldwide. Hydraulic simulations of flood events are becoming an increasingly efficient tool for studying and predicting flood events and susceptibility. A consistent limitation of hydraulic simulations of riverine dynamics is the lack of information about river bathymetry as most terrain data record water surface elevation. The impact of this limitation on the accuracy on hydraulic simulations of flood has not been well studies over a large range of flood magnitude and modeling frameworks. Advancing our understanding of this topic is timely given emerging national and global efforts for developing automated flood predictions systems (e.g. NOAA National Water Center). Here we study the response of flood simulation to the incorporation of different bathymetry and floodplain surveillance source. Different hydraulic models are compared, Mike-Flood, a 2D hydrodynamic model, and GSSHA, a hydrology/hydraulics model. We test a hypothesis that the impact of inclusion/exclusion of bathymetry data on hydraulic model results will vary in its magnitude as a function of river size. This will allow researcher and stake holders more accurate predictions of flood events providing useful information that will help local communities in a vulnerable flood zone to mitigate flood hazards. Also, it will help to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of different modeling frameworks and gage their dependency on detailed bathymetry input data.

  16. Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cœur, Denis; Lang, Michel

    2008-09-01

    The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.

  17. Effects of a flooding event on a threatened black bear population in Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell-Goode, Kaitlin C.; Lowe, Carrie L.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2014-01-01

    The Louisiana black bear, Ursus americanus luteolus, is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act as a result of habitat loss and human-related mortality. Information on population-level responses of large mammals to flooding events is scarce, and we had a unique opportunity to evaluate the viability of the Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB) black bear population before and after a significant flooding event. We began collecting black bear hair samples in 2007 for a DNA mark-recapture study to estimate abundance (N) and apparent survival (φ). In 2011, the Morganza Spillway was opened to divert floodwaters from the Mississippi River through the UARB, inundating > 50% of our study area, potentially impacting recovery of this important bear population. To evaluate the effects of this flooding event on bear population dynamics, we used a robust design multistate model to estimate changes in transition rates from the flooded area to non-flooded area (ψF→NF) before (2007–2010), during (2010–2011) and after (2011–2012) the flood. Average N across all years of study was 63.2 (SE = 5.2), excluding the year of the flooding event. Estimates of ψF→NF increased from 0.014 (SE = 0.010; meaning that 1.4% of the bears moved from the flooded area to non-flooded areas) before flooding to 0.113 (SE = 0.045) during the flood year, and then decreased to 0.028 (SE= 0.035) after the flood. Although we demonstrated a flood effect on transition rates as hypothesized, the effect was small (88.7% of the bears remained in the flooded area during flooding) and φ was unchanged, suggesting that the 2011 flooding event had minimal impact on survival and site fidelity.

  18. Computerized evaluation of flood impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gagnon, J.; Quach, T.T.; Marche, C.; Lessard, G.

    1998-01-01

    A computerized evaluation process for assessing the economic impacts of a potential dam failure is described. The DOMINO software, which was developed by Hydro-Quebec, takes into account flow data from dam break simulations of floods, the territory involved, plus the economic evaluations of the real estate and infrastructures affected. Some examples of software applications and impact evaluations are presented. The principal elements involved in estimating economic or other types of impacts induced by natural flooding or dam failure, are: (1) flow forecasting, (2) defining the contour of the involved territory, and (3) accounting for the various impacts identified in the affected zone. Owing to its wide range of functions and utilities, DOMINO has proven to be a very useful, user-friendly and portable decision-making tool. 5 refs., 6 tabs

  19. A Global Geospatial Database of 5000+ Historic Flood Event Extents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Doyle, C.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Erickson, T.; Slayback, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    A key dataset that is missing for global flood model validation and understanding historic spatial flood vulnerability is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Decades of earth observing satellites and cloud computing now make it possible to not only detect floods in near real time, but to run these water detection algorithms back in time to capture the spatial extent of large numbers of specific events. This talk will show results from the largest global historical flood database developed to date. We use the Dartmouth Flood Observatory flood catalogue to map over 5000 floods (from 1985-2017) using MODIS, Landsat, and Sentinel-1 Satellites. All events are available for public download via the Earth Engine Catalogue and via a website that allows the user to query floods by area or date, assess population exposure trends over time, and download flood extents in geospatial format.In this talk, we will highlight major trends in global flood exposure per continent, land use type, and eco-region. We will also make suggestions how to use this dataset in conjunction with other global sets to i) validate global flood models, ii) assess the potential role of climatic change in flood exposure iii) understand how urbanization and other land change processes may influence spatial flood exposure iv) assess how innovative flood interventions (e.g. wetland restoration) influence flood patterns v) control for event magnitude to assess the role of social vulnerability and damage assessment vi) aid in rapid probabilistic risk assessment to enable microinsurance markets. Authors on this paper are already using the database for the later three applications and will show examples of wetland intervention analysis in Argentina, social vulnerability analysis in the USA, and micro insurance in India.

  20. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2016-04-01

    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  1. Predicting the impact of urban flooding using open data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkachenko, Nataliya; Procter, Rob; Jarvis, Stephen

    2016-05-01

    This paper aims to explore whether there is a relationship between search patterns for flood risk information on the Web and how badly localities have been affected by flood events. We hypothesize that localities where people stay more actively informed about potential flooding experience less negative impact than localities where people make less effort to be informed. Being informed, of course, does not hold the waters back; however, it may stimulate (or serve as an indicator of) such resilient behaviours as timely use of sandbags, relocation of possessions from basements to upper floors and/or temporary evacuation from flooded homes to alternative accommodation. We make use of open data to test this relationship empirically. Our results demonstrate that although aggregated Web search reflects average rainfall patterns, its eigenvectors predominantly consist of locations with similar flood impacts during 2014-2015. These results are also consistent with statistically significant correlations of Web search eigenvectors with flood warning and incident reporting datasets.

  2. A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

  3. Decision Support for Flood Event Prediction and Monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Liang, Gengsheng

    2007-01-01

    In this paper the development of Web GIS based decision support system for flood events is presented. To improve flood prediction we developed the decision support system for flood prediction and monitoring that integrates hydrological modelling and CARIS GIS. We present the methodology for data...... integration, floodplain delineation, and online map interfaces. Our Web-based GIS model can dynamically display observed and predicted flood extents for decision makers and the general public. The users can access Web-based GIS that models current flood events and displays satellite imagery and digital...... elevation model integrated with flood plain area. The system can show how the flooding prediction based on the output from hydrological modeling for the next 48 hours along the lower Saint John River Valley....

  4. Modeling flood events for long-term stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schruben, T.; Portillo, R.

    1985-01-01

    The primary objective for the disposal of uranium mill tailings in the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is isolation and stabilization to prevent their misuse by man and dispersal by natural forces such as wind, rain, and flood waters (40 CFR-192). Stabilization of sites that are located in or near flood plains presents unique problems in design for long-term performance. This paper discusses the process involved with the selection and hydrologic modeling of the design flood event; and hydraulic modeling with geomorphic considerations of the design flood event. The Gunnison, Colorado, and Riverton, Wyoming, sites will be used as examples in describing the process

  5. Floods of the Lower Tisza from the late 17th century onwards: frequency, magnitude, seasonality and great flood events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    The present paper is based on a recently developed database including contemporary original, administrative, legal and private source materials (published and archival) as well as media reports related to the floods occurred on the lower sections of the Tisza river in Hungary, with special emphasis on the area of Szeged town. The study area is well-represented by contemporary source evidence from the late 17th century onwards, when the town and its broader area was reoccupied from the Ottoman Turkish Empire. Concerning the applied source materials, the main bases of investigation are the administrative (archival) sources such as town council protocols of Szeged and county meeting protocols of Csanád and Csongrád Counties. In these (legal-)administrative documents damaging events (natural/environmental hazards) were systematically recorded. Moreover, other source types such as taxation-related damage accounts as well as private and official reports, letters and correspondence (published, unpublished) were also included. Concerning published evidence, a most important source is flood reports in contemporary newspapers as well as town chronicles and other contemporary narratives. In the presentation the main focus is on the analysis of flood-rich flood-poor periods of the last ca. 330 years; moreover, the seasonality distribution as well as the magnitude of Tisza flood events are also discussed. Another important aim of the poster is to provide a short overview, in the form of case studies, on the greatest flood events (e.g. duration, magnitude, damages, multi-annual consequences), and their further impacts on the urban and countryside development as well as on (changes in) flood defence strategies. In this respect, especially two flood events, the great (1815-)1816 and the catastrophic 1879 flood (shortly with causes and consequences) - that practically erased Szeged town from the ground - are presented in more detail.

  6. Modelling Inland Flood Events for Hazard Maps in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, S.; Nzerem, K.; Sassi, M.; Hilberts, A.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Mathur, P.; Mitas, C.; Rafique, F.

    2015-12-01

    Taiwan experiences significant inland flooding, driven by torrential rainfall from plum rain storms and typhoons during summer and fall. From last 13 to 16 years data, 3,000 buildings were damaged by such floods annually with a loss US$0.41 billion (Water Resources Agency). This long, narrow island nation with mostly hilly/mountainous topography is located at tropical-subtropical zone with annual average typhoon-hit-frequency of 3-4 (Central Weather Bureau) and annual average precipitation of 2502mm (WRA) - 2.5 times of the world's average. Spatial and temporal distributions of countrywide precipitation are uneven, with very high local extreme rainfall intensities. Annual average precipitation is 3000-5000mm in the mountainous regions, 78% of it falls in May-October, and the 1-hour to 3-day maximum rainfall are about 85 to 93% of the world records (WRA). Rivers in Taiwan are short with small upstream areas and high runoff coefficients of watersheds. These rivers have the steepest slopes, the shortest response time with rapid flows, and the largest peak flows as well as specific flood peak discharge (WRA) in the world. RMS has recently developed a countrywide inland flood model for Taiwan, producing hazard return period maps at 1arcsec grid resolution. These can be the basis for evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses. The model is initiated with sub-daily historical meteorological forcings and calibrated to daily discharge observations at about 50 river gauges over the period 2003-2013. Simulations of hydrologic processes, via rainfall-runoff and routing models, are subsequently performed based on a 10000 year set of stochastic forcing. The rainfall-runoff model is physically based continuous, semi-distributed model for catchment hydrology. The 1-D wave propagation hydraulic model considers catchment runoff in routing and describes large-scale transport processes along the river. It also accounts for reservoir storage

  7. Extreme flood events in the Bolivian Amazon wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ovando

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: The Amazonian wetlands of Bolivia, known as the Llanos de Moxos, are believed to play a crucial role in regulating the upper Madeira hydrological cycle, the most important southern tributary of the Amazon River. Because the area is vast and sparsely populated, the hydrological functioning of the wetlands is poorly known. Study focus: We analyzed the hydrometeorological configurations that led to the major floods of 2007, 2008 and 2014. These data, together with flood mapping derived from remote sensing images, were used to understand the dynamics of the Llanos during the three flood events. New hydrological insights for the region: The results showed that large floods are the result of the superimposition of flood waves from major sub-basins of the region. As a previous study suggested, the dynamics of the floods are controlled by an exogenous process, created by the flood wave originating in the Andes piedmont that travels through the Mamoré River; and by an endogenous process, which is the runoff originating in the Llanos. Our study showed that the first process is evident only at the initial phase of the floods, and although important for attenuating the rising flood wave, it is of lesser importance compared to the endogenous process. We conclude that the endogenous process controls the magnitude and duration of major floods. Keywords: Flood dynamics, Wetlands, Remote sensing, Llanos de Moxos

  8. Linking events, science and media for flood and drought management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, M.; Wei, Y.; Zheng, H.; Zhao, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Throughout history, floods and droughts have been closely related to the development of human riparian civilization. The socio-economic damage caused by floods/droughts appears to be on the rise and the frequency of floods/droughts increases due to global climate change. In this paper, we take a fresh perspective to examine the (dis)connection between events (floods and droughts), research papers and media reports in globally 42 river basins between 1990 and 2012 for better solutions in floods and droughts management. We collected hydrological data from NOAA/ESPL Physical Sciences Division (PSD) and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), all relevant scientific papers from Web of Science (WOS) and media records from Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the study period, presented the temporal variability at annual level of these three groups of data, and analysed the (connection) among these three groups of data in typical river basins. We found that 1) the number of flood related reports on both media and research is much more than those on droughts; 2) the concerns of media reports just focused on partial topics (death, severity and damage) and partial catchments (Mediterranean Sea and Nile River); 3) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within some river basins such as Nile River Basin, Parana River Basin, Savannah River Basin and Murray-Darling River Basin; 4) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within only a few of disciplines such as Geology, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, Agriculture, Engineering and Forestry. It is recommended that multiple disciplinary contribution and collaboration should be promoted to achieve comprehensive flood/drought management, and science and media should interactively play their valuable roles and in flood/drought issues. Keywords: Floods, droughts, events, science, media, flood and drought management

  9. Assessment of flood Response Characteristics to Urbanization and extreme flood events-Typhoons at Cheongju, Chungbuk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, HyungJoon; Lee, Hyosang; Hwang, Myunggyu; Jang, Sukhwan

    2016-04-01

    The changes of land use influence on the flood characteristics, which depend on rainfall runoff procedures in the catchment. This study assesses the changes of flood characteristics due to land use changes between 1997 and 2012. The catchment model (HEC-HMS) is calibrated with flood events of 1990's and 2000's respectively, then the design rainfall of 100, 200, 500year return period are applied to this model, which represent the catchment in 1990's and 2000's, to assess the flood peaks. Then the extreme flood events (i.e., 6 typhoon events) are applied to assess the flood responses. The results of comparison between 1990's and 2000's show that the flood peak and level of 2000's are increasing and time to peak of 2000's is decreasing comparing to those of 1990's :3% to 78% increase in flood peak, 3% in flood level and 10.2% to 16% decrease in time to peak in 100year return period flood. It is due to decreasing of the farmland area (2.18%), mountainous area (8.88%), and increasing of the urbanization of the area (5.86%). This study also estimates the responses to extreme flood events. The results of 2000's show that the increasing of the flood peak and time to peak comparing to 1990's. It indicates that the extreme rainfall is more responsible at unurbanized catchment ( 2000's), which resulting with a 11% increasing of the peak volume. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  10. Characteristics and Future Changes of Great Mississippi Flood Events in a Global Coupled Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; Vecchi, G.; Smith, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Mississippi-Missouri river catchment houses millions of people and much of the U.S. national agricultural production. Severe flooding events can therefore have large negative societal, natural and economic impacts. GFDL FLOR, a global coupled climate model (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice with integrated river routing module) is used to investigate the characteristics of great Mississippi floods with an average return period of 100 years. Model experiments under pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing were conducted for 3400 years, such that the most extreme flooding events were explicitly modeled and the land and/or atmospheric causes could be investigated. It is shown that melt of snow pack and frozen sub-surface water in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi basins prime the river system, subsequently sensitizing it to above average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee basins. The months preceding the greatest flooding events are above average wet, leading to moist sub-surface conditions. Anomalous melt depends on the availability of frozen water in the catchment, therefore anomalous amounts of sub-surface frozen water and anomalous large snow pack in winter (Nov-Feb) make the river system susceptible for these great flooding events in spring (Feb-Apr). An additional experiment of 1200 years under transient greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5, 5 members) was done to investigate potential future change in flood risk. Based on a peak-over-threshold method, it is found that the number of great flooding events decreases in a warmer future. This decrease coincides with decreasing occurrence of large melt events, but is despite increasing numbers of large precipitation events. Though the model results indicate a decreasing risk for the greatest flooding events, the predictability of events might decrease in a warmer future given the changing characters of melt and precipitation.

  11. Combining geomorphic and documentary flood evidence to reconstruct extreme events in Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndycraft, V. R.; Benito, G.; Barriendos, M.; Rico, M.; Sánchez-Moya, Y.; Sopeña, A.; Casas, A.

    2009-09-01

    Palaeoflood hydrology is the reconstruction of flood magnitude and frequency using geomorphological flood evidence and is particularly valuable for extending the record of extreme floods prior to the availability of instrumental data series. This paper will provide a review of recent developments in palaeoflood hydrology and will be presented in three parts: 1) an overview of the key methodological approaches used in palaeoflood hydrology and the use of historical documentary evidence for reconstructing extreme events; 2) a summary of the Llobregat River palaeoflood case study (Catalonia, NE Spain); and 3) analysis of the AD 1617 flood and its impacts across Catalonia (including the rivers Llobregat, Ter and Segre). The key findings of the Llobregat case study were that at least eight floods occurred with discharges significantly larger than events recorded in the instrumental record, for example at the Pont de Vilomara study reach the palaeodischarges of these events were 3700-4300 m3/s compared to the 1971 flood, the largest on record, of 2300 m3/s. Five of these floods were dated to the last 3000 years and the three events directly dated by radiocarbon all occurred during cold phases of global climate. Comparison of the palaeoflood record with documentary evidence indicated that one flood, radiocarbon dated to cal. AD 1540-1670, was likely to be the AD 1617 event, the largest flood of the last 700 years. Historical records indicate that this event was caused by rainfall occurring from the 2nd to 6th November and the resultant flooding caused widespread socio-economic impacts including the destruction of at least 389 houses, 22 bridges and 17 water mills. Discharges estimated from palaeoflood records and historical flood marks indicate that the Llobregat (4680 m3/s) and Ter (2700-4500 m3/s) rivers witnessed extreme discharges in comparison to observed floods in the instrumental record (2300 and 2350 m3/s, respectively); whilst further east in the Segre River

  12. The Generation of a Stochastic Flood Event Catalogue for Continental USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, N.; Wing, O.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.

    2017-12-01

    Recent advances in the acquisition of spatiotemporal environmental data and improvements in computational capabilities has enabled the generation of large scale, even global, flood hazard layers which serve as a critical decision-making tool for a range of end users. However, these datasets are designed to indicate only the probability and depth of inundation at a given location and are unable to describe the likelihood of concurrent flooding across multiple sites.Recent research has highlighted that although the estimation of large, widespread flood events is of great value to flood mitigation and insurance industries, to date it has been difficult to deal with this spatial dependence structure in flood risk over relatively large scales. Many existing approaches have been restricted to empirical estimates of risk based on historic events, limiting their capability of assessing risk over the full range of plausible scenarios. Therefore, this research utilises a recently developed model-based approach to describe the multisite joint distribution of extreme river flows across continental USA river gauges. Given an extreme event at a site, the model characterises the likelihood neighbouring sites are also impacted. This information is used to simulate an ensemble of plausible synthetic extreme event footprints from which flood depths are extracted from an existing global flood hazard catalogue. Expected economic losses are then estimated by overlaying flood depths with national datasets defining asset locations, characteristics and depth damage functions. The ability of this approach to quantify probabilistic economic risk and rare threshold exceeding events is expected to be of value to those interested in the flood mitigation and insurance sectors.This work describes the methodological steps taken to create the flood loss catalogue over a national scale; highlights the uncertainty in the expected annual economic vulnerability within the USA from extreme river flows

  13. A new flood type classification method for use in climate change impact studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thea Turkington

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Flood type classification is an optimal tool to cluster floods with similar meteorological triggering conditions. Under climate change these flood types may change differently as well as new flood types develop. This paper presents a new methodology to classify flood types, particularly for use in climate change impact studies. A weather generator is coupled with a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to create long synthetic records of discharge to efficiently build an inventory with high number of flood events. Significant discharge days are classified into causal types using k-means clustering of temperature and precipitation indicators capturing differences in rainfall amount, antecedent rainfall and snow-cover and day of year. From climate projections of bias-corrected temperature and precipitation, future discharge and associated change in flood types are assessed. The approach is applied to two different Alpine catchments: the Ubaye region, a small catchment in France, dominated by rain-on-snow flood events during spring, and the larger Salzach catchment in Austria, affected more by rainfall summer/autumn flood events. The results show that the approach is able to reproduce the observed flood types in both catchments. Under future climate scenarios, the methodology identifies changes in the distribution of flood types and characteristics of the flood types in both study areas. The developed methodology has potential to be used flood impact assessment and disaster risk management as future changes in flood types will have implications for both the local social and ecological systems in the future.

  14. Hydrological simulation of flood transformations in the upper Danube River: Case study of large flood events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitková Veronika Bačová

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The problem of understand natural processes as factors that restrict, limit or even jeopardize the interests of human society is currently of great concern. The natural transformation of flood waves is increasingly affected and disturbed by artificial interventions in river basins. The Danube River basin is an area of high economic and water management importance. Channel training can result in changes in the transformation of flood waves and different hydrographic shapes of flood waves compared with the past. The estimation and evolution of the transformation of historical flood waves under recent river conditions is only possible by model simulations. For this purpose a nonlinear reservoir cascade model was constructed. The NLN-Danube nonlinear reservoir river model was used to simulate the transformation of flood waves in four sections of the Danube River from Kienstock (Austria to Štúrovo (Slovakia under relatively recent river reach conditions. The model was individually calibrated for two extreme events in August 2002 and June 2013. Some floods that occurred on the Danube during the period of 1991–2002 were used for the validation of the model. The model was used to identify changes in the transformational properties of the Danube channel in the selected river reach for some historical summer floods (1899, 1954 1965 and 1975. Finally, a simulation of flood wave propagation of the most destructive Danube flood of the last millennium (August 1501 is discussed.

  15. Appropriate modelling of climate change impacts on river flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate change is likely to increase temperatures, change precipitation patterns and probably raise the frequency of extreme events. Impacts of climate change on river flooding may be considerable and may cause enormous economical, social and environmental damage and even loss of lives. This

  16. Shock events and flood risk management: a media analysis of the institutional long-term effects of flood events in the Netherlands and Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Kaufmann

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Flood events that have proven to create shock waves in society, which we will call shock events, can open windows of opportunity that allow different actor groups to introduce new ideas. Shock events, however, can also strengthen the status quo. We will take flood events as our object of study. Whereas others focus mainly on the immediate impact and disaster management, we will focus on the long-term impact on and resilience of flood risk governance arrangements. Over the last 25 years, both the Netherlands and Poland have suffered several flood-related events. These triggered strategic and institutional changes, but to different degrees. In a comparative analysis these endogenous processes, i.e., the importance of framing of the flood event, its exploitation by different actor groups, and the extent to which arrangements are actually changing, are examined. In line with previous research, our analysis revealed that shock events test the capacity to resist and bounce back and provide opportunities for adapting and learning. They "open up" institutional arrangements and make them more susceptible to change, increasing the opportunity for adaptation. In this way they can facilitate a shift toward different degrees of resilience, i.e., by adjusting the current strategic approach or by moving toward another strategic approach. The direction of change is influenced by the actors and the frames they introduce, and their ability to increase the resonance of the frame. The persistence of change seems to be influenced by the evolution of the initial management approach, the availability of resources, or the willingness to allocate resources.

  17. After the flood is before the next flood - post event review of the Central European Floods of June 2013. Insights, recommendations and next steps for future flood prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szoenyi, Michael; Mechler, Reinhard; McCallum, Ian

    2015-04-01

    In early June 2013, severe flooding hit Central and Eastern Europe, causing extensive damage, in particular along the Danube and Elbe main watersheds. The situation was particularly severe in Eastern Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Based on the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) approach, developed by Zurich Insurance's Flood Resilience Program to provide independent review of large flood events, we examine what has worked well (best practice) and opportunities for further improvement. The PERC overall aims to thoroughly examine aspects of flood resilience, flood risk management and catastrophe intervention in order to help build back better after events and learn for future events. As our research from post event analyses shows a lot of losses are in fact avoidable by taking the right measures pre-event and these measures are economically - efficient with a return of 4 Euro on losses saved for every Euro invested in prevention on average (Wharton/IIASA flood resilience alliance paper on cost benefit analysis, Mechler et al. 2014) and up to 10 Euros for certain countries. For the 2013 flood events we provide analysis on the following aspects and in general identify a number of factors that worked in terms of reducing the loss and risk burden. 1. Understanding risk factors of the Central European Floods 2013 We review the precursors leading up to the floods in June, with an extremely wet May 2013 and an atypical V-b weather pattern that brought immense precipitation in a very short period to the watersheds of Elbe, Donau and partially the Rhine in the D-A-CH countries and researched what happened during the flood and why. Key questions we asked revolve around which protection and risk reduction approaches worked well and which did not, and why. 2. Insights and recommendations from the post event review The PERC identified a number of risk factors, which need attention if risk is to be reduced over time. • Yet another "100-year flood" - risk

  18. Impact of stream restoration on flood waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sholtes, J.; Doyle, M.

    2008-12-01

    Restoration of channelized or incised streams has the potential to reduce downstream flooding via storing and dissipating the energy of flood waves. Restoration design elements such as restoring meanders, reducing slope, restoring floodplain connectivity, re-introducing in-channel woody debris, and re-vegetating banks and the floodplain have the capacity to attenuate flood waves via energy dissipation and channel and floodplain storage. Flood discharge hydrographs measured up and downstream of several restored reaches of varying stream order and located in both urban and rural catchments are coupled with direct measurements of stream roughness at various stages to directly measure changes to peak discharge, flood wave celerity, and dispersion. A one-dimensional unsteady flow routing model, HEC-RAS, is calibrated and used to compare attenuation characteristics between pre and post restoration conditions. Modeled sensitivity results indicate that a restoration project placed on a smaller order stream demonstrates the highest relative reduction in peak discharge of routed flood waves compared to one of equal length on a higher order stream. Reductions in bed slope, extensions in channel length, and increases in channel and floodplain roughness follow restoration placement with the watershed in relative importance. By better understanding how design, scale, and location of restored reaches within a catchment hydraulically impact flood flows, this study contributes both to restoration design and site decision making. It also quantifies the effect of reach scale stream restoration on flood wave attenuation.

  19. Estimation of Damage Costs Associated with Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, T. A.; Wauthier, C.; Zipp, K.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the possibility of creating a mathematical function that enables the estimation of flood-damage costs. We begin by examining the costs associated with past flood events in the United States. The data on these tropical storms and hurricanes are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the location, extent of flooding, and damage reparation costs identified, we analyze variables such as: number of inches rained, land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. We seek to identify the leading drivers of high flood-damage costs and understand which variables play a large role in the costliness of these weather events. Upon completion of our mathematical analysis, we turn out attention to the 2017 natural disaster of Texas. We divide the region, as we did above, by land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. Then, we overlay the number of inches rained in those regions onto the divided landscape and apply our function. We hope to use these findings to estimate the potential flood-damage costs of Hurricane Harvey. This information is then transformed into a hazard map that could provide citizens and businesses of flood-stricken zones additional resources for their insurance selection process.

  20. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  1. FLOOD MENACE IN KADUNA METROPOLIS: IMPACTS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr A.B.Ahmed

    damage, causes of flooding, human response to flooding and severity of ... from moving out. Source of ... Man responds to flood hazards through adjustment, flood abatement ... action to minimize or ameliorate flood hazards; flood abatement.

  2. Natural Flood Management in context: evaluating and enhancing the impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Peter; Beven, Keith; Hankin, Barry; Lamb, Rob

    2016-04-01

    The series of flood events in the UK throughout December 2015 have led to calls for a reappraisal of the country's approach to flood management. In parts of Cumbria so-called "1 in 100" year floods have occurred three times in the last ten years, leading to significant infrastructure damage. Hard-engineered defences upgraded to cope with an anticipated 20% increase in peak flows and these 1% AEP events have been overwhelmed. It has become more widely acknowledged that unsympathetic agricultural and upland management practices, mainly since the Second World War, have led to a significant loss of storage in mid and upper catchments and their consequent ability to retain and slow storm run-off. Natural Flood Management (NFM) is a nature-based solution to restoring this storage and flood peak attenuation through a network of small-scale features exploiting natural topography and materials. Combined with other "soft" interventions such as restoring flood plain roughness and tree-planting, NFM offers the attractive prospect of an intervention that can target both the ecological and chemical objectives of the Water Framework Directive and the resilience demanded by the Floods Directive. We developed a simple computerised physical routing model that can account for the presence of in-channel and offline features such as would be found in a NFM scheme. These will add storage to the channel and floodplain and throttle the downstream discharge at storm flows. The model was applied to the heavily-modified channel network of an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire using the run-off simulated for two storm events that caused flooding downstream in the autumn of 2012. Using up to 60 online features we demonstrated some gains in channel storage and a small impact on the flood hydrograph which would, however, have been insufficient to prevent the downstream floods in either of the storms. Complementary research at JBA has applied their hydrodynamic model JFLOW+ to identify

  3. Impact of multiple radar reflectivity data assimilation on the numerical simulation of a flash flood event during the HyMeX campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maiello, Ida; Gentile, Sabrina; Ferretti, Rossella; Baldini, Luca; Roberto, Nicoletta; Picciotti, Errico; Alberoni, Pier Paolo; Silvio Marzano, Frank

    2017-11-01

    An analysis to evaluate the impact of multiple radar reflectivity data with a three-dimensional variational (3-D-Var) assimilation system on a heavy precipitation event is presented. The main goal is to build a regionally tuned numerical prediction model and a decision-support system for environmental civil protection services and demonstrate it in the central Italian regions, distinguishing which type of observations, conventional and not (or a combination of them), is more effective in improving the accuracy of the forecasted rainfall. In that respect, during the first special observation period (SOP1) of HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) campaign several intensive observing periods (IOPs) were launched and nine of which occurred in Italy. Among them, IOP4 is chosen for this study because of its low predictability regarding the exact location and amount of precipitation. This event hit central Italy on 14 September 2012 producing heavy precipitation and causing several cases of damage to buildings, infrastructure, and roads. Reflectivity data taken from three C-band Doppler radars running operationally during the event are assimilated using the 3-D-Var technique to improve high-resolution initial conditions. In order to evaluate the impact of the assimilation procedure at different horizontal resolutions and to assess the impact of assimilating reflectivity data from multiple radars, several experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are performed. Finally, traditional verification scores such as accuracy, equitable threat score, false alarm ratio, and frequency bias - interpreted by analysing their uncertainty through bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) - are used to objectively compare the experiments, using rain gauge data as a benchmark.

  4. Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

    2015-02-24

    Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

  5. Determining the Financial Impact of Flood Hazards in Ungaged Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotterman, K. A.; Gutenson, J. L.; Pradhan, N. R.; Byrd, A.

    2017-12-01

    Many portions of the Earth lack adequate authoritative or in situ data that is of great value in determining natural hazard vulnerability from both anthropogenic and physical perspective. Such locations include the majority of developing nations, which do not possess adequate warning systems and protective infrastructure. The lack of warning and protection from natural hazards make these nations vulnerable to the destructive power of events such as floods. The goal of this research is to demonstrate an initial workflow with which to characterize flood financial hazards with global datasets and crowd-sourced, non-authoritative data in ungagged river basins. This workflow includes the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the watershed to precipitation, characterized by the physics-based modeling application Gridded Surface-Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. In addition, data infrastructure and resources are available to approximate the human impact of flooding. Open source, volunteer geographic information (VGI) data can provide global coverage of elements at risk of flooding. Additional valuation mechanisms can then translate flood exposure into percentage and financial damage to each building. The combinations of these tools allow the authors to remotely assess flood hazards with minimal computational, temporal, and financial overhead. This combination of deterministic and stochastic modeling provides the means to quickly characterize watershed flood vulnerability and will allow emergency responders and planners to better understand the implications of flooding, both spatially and financially. In either a planning, real-time, or forecasting scenario, the system will assist the user in understanding basin flood vulnerability and increasing community resiliency and preparedness.

  6. Long-term socioeconomic impacts of flooding in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.

    2013-05-01

    Natural disasters lead to myriad negative impacts upon society, causing loss of life, property, and income. Among disasters, floods annually affect the most people, and lead to widespread negative outcomes, particularly in developing countries. While immediate effects of disasters are readily observed, long-term socioeconomic effects have received little attention. Recent work in development economics finds that environmental exposure in early life can have negative impacts upon later outcomes in health, education, and labor markets. Such research is problematic for disasters, however, as objective measurements of hazard exposure are difficult to obtain. This study develops a remote sensing method to detect flooding in Bangladesh, one of the most flood-prone countries, using MODIS 8-day composite data. This approach addresses one of the main problems in the literature on the social impacts of disasters by deriving an objective measure rather than using self-reported damages. Flood data from 2000-2012 is matched to geolocated social surveys conducted by the Bangladesh government to identify impacts of exposure to floods at critical periods of life. While flooding is noted to be a natural and important part of ecosystem functioning in Bangladesh, we aim to understand the impacts of a flood of greater than normal magnitude or abnormal timing to identify the effects on human capital formation. We find that an increase in flooding of one standard deviation (SD) above the mean in the birth month leads to a 3% increase in stunting (2 SD below cohort height). This has implications for physical and cognitive development, shown elsewhere to persist to adulthood. We find that children from households that are exposed to floods while in elementary school are more likely to drop out. Other impacts will be identified in the course of this research. The stated impacts suggest that the long-term health and economic fortunes of the rural poor in Bangladesh are significantly

  7. Projections of hepatitis A virus infection associated with flood events by 2020 and 2030 in Anhui Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Lu; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guoyong; Liu, Qiyong; Wang, Changke; Jiang, Baofa

    2016-12-01

    Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05-1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72-1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87-1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/105 and 0.127/105 for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/105 and 0.399/105. Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.

  8. Influence of risk factors and past events on flood resilience in coastal megacities: Comparative analysis of NYC and Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, Siyuan; Yin, Jie; Lin, Ning; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2018-01-01

    Coastal flood protection measures have been widely implemented to improve flood resilience. However, protection levels vary among coastal megacities globally. This study compares the distinct flood protection standards for two coastal megacities, New York City and Shanghai, and investigates potential influences such as risk factors and past flood events. Extreme value analysis reveals that, compared to NYC, Shanghai faces a significantly higher flood hazard. Flood inundation analysis indicates that Shanghai has a higher exposure to extreme flooding. Meanwhile, Shanghai's urban development, population, and economy have increased much faster than NYC's over the last three decades. These risk factors provide part of the explanation for the implementation of a relatively high level of protection (e.g. reinforced concrete sea-wall designed for a 200-year flood return level) in Shanghai and low protection (e.g. vertical brick and stone walls and sand dunes) in NYC. However, individual extreme flood events (typhoons in 1962, 1974, and 1981) seem to have had a greater impact on flood protection decision-making in Shanghai, while NYC responded significantly less to past events (with the exception of Hurricane Sandy). Climate change, sea level rise, and ongoing coastal development are rapidly changing the hazard and risk calculus for both cities and both would benefit from a more systematic and dynamic approach to coastal protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Estimation of initiating event frequency for external flood events by extreme value theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chowdhury, Sourajyoti; Ganguly, Rimpi; Hari, Vibha

    2017-01-01

    External flood is an important common cause initiating event in nuclear power plants (NPPs). It may potentially lead to severe core damage (SCD) by first causing the failure of the systems required for maintaining the heat sinks and then by contributing to failures of engineered systems designed to mitigate such failures. The sample NPP taken here is twin 220 MWe Indian standard pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) situated inland. A comprehensive in-house Level-1 internal event PSA for full power had already been performed. External flood assessment was further conducted in area of external hazard risk assessment in response to post-Fukushima measures taken in nuclear industries. The present paper describes the methodology to calculate initiating event (IE) frequency for external flood events for the sample inland Indian NPP. General extreme value (GEV) theory based on maximum likelihood method (MLM) and order statistics approach (OSA) is used to analyse the rainfall data for the site. Thousand-year return level and necessary return periods for extreme rainfall are evaluated. These results along with plant-specific topographical calculations quantitatively establish that external flooding resulting from upstream dam break, river flooding and heavy rainfall (flash flood) would be unlikely for the sample NPP in consideration.

  10. Management of a Complex Open Channel Network During Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franchini, M.; Valiani, A.; Schippa, L.; Mascellani, G.

    2003-04-01

    Most part of the area around Ferrara (Italy) is below the mean sea level and an extensive drainage system combined with several pump stations allows the use of this area for both urban development and industrial and agricultural activities. The three main channels of this hydraulic system constitute the Ferrara Inland Waterway (total length approximately 70 km), which connects the Po river near Ferrara to the sea. Because of the level difference between the upstream and dowstream ends of the waterway, three locks are located along it, each of them combined with a set of gates to control the water levels. During rainfall events, most of the water of the basin flows into the waterway and heavy precipitations sometimes cause flooding in several areas. This is due to the insufficiency of the channel network dimensions and an inadequate manual operation of the gates. This study presents a hydrological-hydraulic model for the entire Ferrara basin and a system of rules in order to operate the gates. In particular, their opening is designed to be regulated in real time by monitoring the water level in several sections along the channels. Besides flood peak attenuation, this operation strategy contributes also to the maintenance of a constant water level for irrigation and fluvial navigation during the dry periods. With reference to the flood event of May 1996, it is shown that this floodgate operation policy, unlike that which was actually adopted during that event, would lead to a significant flood peak attenuation, avoiding flooding in the area upstream of Ferrara.

  11. Lessons learned from Khartoum flash flood impacts: An integrated assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood, Mohamad Ibrahim; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Horn, Finlay; Saad, Suhair A G

    2017-12-01

    This study aims at enabling the compilation of key lessons for decision makers and urban planners in rapidly urbanizing cities regarding the identification of representative, chief causal natural and human factors for the increased level of flash flood risk. To achieve this, the impacts of flash flood events of 2013 and 2014 in the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, were assessed using seven integrated approaches, i.e. rainfall data analysis, document analysis of affected people and houses, observational fieldwork in the worst flood affected areas, people's perception of causes and mitigation measures through household interviews, reported drinking water quality, reported water-related diseases and social risk assessment. Several lessons have been developed as follows. Urban planners must recognize the devastating risks of building within natural pathways of ephemeral watercourses. They must also ensure effective drainage infrastructures and physio-geographical investigations prior to developing urban areas. The existing urban drainage systems become ineffective due to blockage by urban waste. Building of unauthorized drainage and embankment structures by locals often cause greater flood problems than normal. The urban runoff is especially problematic for residential areas built within low-lying areas having naturally low infiltration capacity, as surface water can rapidly collect within hollows and depressions, or beside elevated roads that preclude the free flow of floodwater. Weak housing and infrastructure quality are especially vulnerable to flash flooding and even to rainfall directly. Establishment of services infrastructure is imperative for flash flood disaster risk reduction. Water supply should be from lower aquifers to avoid contaminant groundwater. Regular monitoring of water quality and archiving of its indicators help identify water-related diseases and sources of water contamination in the event of environmental disasters such as floods. Though the

  12. Socio-economic Impact Analysis for Near Real-Time Flood Detection in the Lower Mekong River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oddo, P.; Ahamed, A.; Bolten, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Flood events pose a severe threat to communities in the Lower Mekong River Basin. The combination of population growth, urbanization, and economic development exacerbate the impacts of these flood events. Flood damage assessments are frequently used to quantify the economic losses in the wake of storms. These assessments are critical for understanding the effects of flooding on the local population, and for informing decision-makers about future risks. Remote sensing systems provide a valuable tool for monitoring flood conditions and assessing their severity more rapidly than traditional post-event evaluations. The frequency and severity of extreme flood events are projected to increase, further illustrating the need for improved flood monitoring and impact analysis. In this study we implement a socio-economic damage model into a decision support tool with near real-time flood detection capabilities (NASA's Project Mekong). Surface water extent for current and historical floods is found using multispectral Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-meter imagery and the spectral Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signatures of permanent water bodies (MOD44W). Direct and indirect damages to populations, infrastructure, and agriculture are assessed using the 2011 Southeast Asian flood as a case study. Improved land cover and flood depth assessments result in a more refined understanding of losses throughout the Mekong River Basin. Results suggest that rapid initial estimates of flood impacts can provide valuable information to governments, international agencies, and disaster responders in the wake of extreme flood events.

  13. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

    2015-04-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

  14. THE SEPTEMBER 2013 RAIN AND FLOOD EVENTS IN THE FLAM’S VALLEY BASIN. CAUSES, CHARACTERISTICS AND THEIR IMPACT UPON THE ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BORCAN MIHAELA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Between 11.09 and 14.09 2013 the north-eastern part of Tulcea County, especially the areas located around Somova village was affected by heavy, torrential rainfall that totalized over 30 mm/sq m and triggered dangerous hydrological phenomena (important slope, stream and river flows. As a result of these heavy downpours, Flam’s Valley was affected by an exceptional flash-flood which measured a peak discharge that reached a 1% exceeding probability. Another destructive characteristic of the weather phenomena that occurred in September 2013 was that the heavy rain was accompanied by violent gusty winds that resembled tornado-like features, bringing serious threat to houses, households and roads. In this paper we have analyzed the weather features that produced the September 2013 flash flood from both a spatial and a temporal perspective. The hydrological analysis focuses on the peak discharge that was recorded during the flash flood as well as on the characteristics elements of the topographic profiles. The paper ends with a brief presentation of the consequences that the weather and hydrological phenomena had upon the environment and population as well.

  15. Revisiting the 1993 historical extreme precipitation and damaging flood event in Central Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marahatta, S.; Adhikari, L.; Pokharel, B.

    2017-12-01

    Nepal is ranked the fourth most climate-vulnerable country in the world and it is prone to different weather-related hazards including droughts, floods, and landslides [Wang et al., 2013; Gillies et al., 2013]. Although extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events, there are no extreme weather warning system established to inform public in Nepal. Nepal has witnessed frequent drought and flood events, however, the extreme precipitation that occurred on 19-20 July 1993 created a devastating flood and landslide making it the worst weather disaster in the history of Nepal. During the second week of July, Nepal and northern India experienced abnormal dry condition due to the shifting of the monsoon trough to central India. The dry weather changed to wet when monsoon trough moved northward towards foothills of the Himalayas. Around the same period, a low pressure center was located over the south-central Nepal. The surface low was supported by the mid-, upper-level shortwave and cyclonic vorticity. A meso-scale convective system created record breaking one day rainfall (540 mm) in the region. The torrential rain impacted the major hydropower reservoir, Bagmati barrage in Karmaiya and triggered many landslides and flash floods. The region had the largest hydropower (Kulekhani hydropower, 92 MW) of the country at that time and the storm event deposited extremely large amount of sediments that reduced one-fourth (4.8 million m3) of reservoir dead storage (12 million m3). The 1-in-1000 years flood damaged the newly constructed barrage and took more than 700 lives. Major highways were damaged cutting off supply of daily needed goods, including food and gas, in the capital city, Kathmandu, for more than a month. In this presentation, the meteorological conditions of the extreme event will be diagnosed and the impact of the sedimentation due to the flood on Kulekhani reservoir and hydropower generation will be discussed.

  16. Cascading Events, Technology and the Floods Directive: future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pescaroli Gianluca

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cascading events can be referred to multidimensional disasters, where a primary trigger generates a nonlinear series of secondary emergencies that escalate in time, becoming eventually the priority to tackle. In this process, critical infrastructure can be handled as roots of vulnerabilities, because they accumulate both physical attributes and functional nodes. When compromised, they produce widespread breakdowns of society, but also orient emergency responses and long-term recovery. Although floods have been widely associated to the failure of vulnerable equipments or to the disruption of strategic sectors such as energy, communication and transportation, their integration with the emerging concept of cascading has been limited. This open topic presents many challenges for scholars, researchers and practitioners, in particular when the implementation of the EU Floods Directive is considered. The paper presents an overview of the Floods Directive and its relation with the cascading events, using case studies and examples from the existing literature to point out missing links and gaps in the legislation. Conclusions argue that the Directive considers only local geographical scales and limited temporal horizons, which can be result inadequate to limit the escalation of events.

  17. Integrating a Typhoon Event Database with an Optimal Flood Operation Model on the Real-Time Flood Control of the Tseng-Wen Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y. W.; Chang, L. C.

    2012-04-01

    Typhoons which normally bring a great amount of precipitation are the primary natural hazard in Taiwan during flooding season. Because the plentiful rainfall quantities brought by typhoons are normally stored for the usage of the next draught period, the determination of release strategies for flood operation of reservoirs which is required to simultaneously consider not only the impact of reservoir safety and the flooding damage in plain area but also for the water resource stored in the reservoir after typhoon becomes important. This study proposes a two-steps study process. First, this study develop an optimal flood operation model (OFOM) for the planning of flood control and also applies the OFOM on Tseng-wun reservoir and the downstream plain related to the reservoir. Second, integrating a typhoon event database with the OFOM mentioned above makes the proposed planning model have ability to deal with a real-time flood control problem and names as real-time flood operation model (RTFOM). Three conditions are considered in the proposed models, OFOM and RTFOM, include the safety of the reservoir itself, the reservoir storage after typhoons and the impact of flooding in the plain area. Besides, the flood operation guideline announced by government is also considered in the proposed models. The these conditions and the guideline can be formed as an optimization problem which is solved by the genetic algorithm (GA) in this study. Furthermore, a distributed runoff model, kinematic-wave geomorphic instantaneous unit hydrograph (KW-GIUH), and a river flow simulation model, HEC-RAS, are used to simulate the river water level of Tseng-wun basin in the plain area and the simulated level is shown as an index of the impact of flooding. Because the simulated levels are required to re-calculate iteratively in the optimization model, applying a recursive artificial neural network (recursive ANN) instead of the HEC-RAS model can significantly reduce the computational burden of

  18. Gauging Flash-Floods: Automated Measurement of Flood Events in Mountain Torrents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liechti, Katharina; Boss, Stefan; Fritschi, Bruno; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2017-04-01

    Rating curves contain uncertainties, especially in their upper range of higher discharge. This is due to more uncertainties in the measurements and also the typically lower number of measurements of high discharge events. However, it is the upper part of a rating curve that is of interest if it comes to dimensioning protection measures against floods and flash floods. For small municipalities who plan mitigation measures like a dam for protection against flash floods of small mountain torrent a rating curve as accurate as possible can be of great interest. It helps to reduce costs that can be caused by both under- and overdimensioning of a protective structure. We therefore invented a mobile discharge measurement station that is set up to construct a rating curve for small turbulent mountain torrents. It operates with salt dilution method and works in its current setup up to about 10 m3/s. The salt is injected automatically to the torrent when an event of desired magnitude takes place. Further downstream a conductivity measuring sensor records the change in salt concentration of the stream water. This mechanism is guided by automatic continuous observation of radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and a water pressure sensor. Measurements at a first test site gave promising results. The system does event measurements independent of the time of day and day of the week. The measuring equipment at the field site is only activated in case of an event. Therefore it has a low power consumption and can be run by only two solar panels.

  19. Characterization of a Mediterranean flash flood event using rain gauges, radar, GIS and lightning data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Barnolas

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Flash flood events are very common in Catalonia, generating a high impact on society, including losses in life almost every year. They are produced by the overflowing of ephemeral rivers in narrow and steep basins close to the sea. This kind of floods is associated with convective events producing high rainfall intensities. The aim of the present study is to analyse the 12–14 September 2006 flash flood event within the framework of the characteristics of flood events in the Internal Basins of Catalonia (IBC. To achieve this purpose all flood events occurred between 1996 and 2005 have been analysed. Rainfall and radar data have been introduced into a GIS, and a classification of the events has been done. A distinction of episodes has been made considering the spatial coverage of accumulated rainfall in 24 h, and the degree of the convective precipitation registered. The study case can be considered as a highly convective one, with rainfalls covering all the IBC on the 13th of September. In that day 215.9 mm/24 h were recorded with maximum intensities above 130 mm/h. A complete meteorological study of this event is also presented. In addition, as this is an episode with a high lightning activity it has been chosen to be studied into the framework of the FLASH project. In this way, a comparison between this information and raingauge data has been developed. All with the goal in mind of finding a relation between lightning density, radar echoes and amounts of precipitation. Furthermore, these studies improve our knowledge about thunderstorms systems.

  20. Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, Colin; Fayne, Jessica

    2016-01-01

    Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data

  1. A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallozzi, Kyle J.

    Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further. A total of 211 total cases were identified and sub-divided into seven subcategories based on their convective morphology and meteorological characteristics. Heatmaps of event report frequency were created to extract spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns in SVR/FF event activity. Diurnal trends were examined from time series plots of tornado, hail, wind and flash flood/flood reports. Event-centered composites of environmental variables were created for each subcategory from 13 km RUC/RAP analyses. Representative cases studies were conducted for each subcategory. A "ring of fire" with the highest levels of SVR/FF event activity was noted across the central United States. SVR/FF events were least common in the Southeast, High Plains, and Northern Plains. Enhanced SVR/FF activity reflected contributions from synoptic events during the cool and shoulder seasons over the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Valleys, and MCS activity during the warm season over the lower Great Plains, and the Upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Results from the composite analyses indicated that relatively high values of CAPE, surface-500 hPa shear and precipitable water were observed for all subcategories. Case studies show that many high-end SVR/FF events featured slow-moving, or quasi

  2. Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Southeastern Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switanek, Matt; Truhetz, Heimo; Reszler, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Floods in southeastern Austria can cause significant damage to life, property and infrastructure. These flood events are often the result of extreme precipitation from small-scale convective storms. In order to more accurately model the changes to flood magnitude and frequency, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) must be able to simulate small-scale convective storms similar to those that have been observed. Even as computational resources have increased, RCMs are just now achieving the high spatial and temporal scales necessary to physically resolve the processes that govern small-scale convection. With increased resolution, RCMs can rely on their internal physics to model convective precipitation and need not depend on parameterization. This study uses historical and future scenarios of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) run at a spatial scale of 3 km and temporal scale of 1 hr. In order to subsequently force a hydrological flood model, the sub-daily precipitation and temperature data from the RCMs are first bias corrected. A newly proposed bias correction method is presented and compared to the commonly used quantile mapping. The proposed bias correction method performs better in its ability to preserve the model projected climate change signal (measured by changes in mean and variance). Lastly, the changes in the quantity and frequency of projected extreme precipitation, at the watershed level, are analyzed with respect to the historic time period. With these improvements in dynamical modeling and bias correction methods, a clearer picture emerges revealing the more likely impacts climate change will have on floods in southeastern Austria.

  3. Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Fuentes-Andino

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Studies for the prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesized that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way considering large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed from a combination of models and post-event measured data. Post-event data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peak, and high-water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well-known modelling tools: TOPMODEL, Muskingum–Cunge–Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE uncertainty-analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks, and more than 90 % of the observed high-water marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high-water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. Identifications of these locations are useful to improve model set-up, model structure, or post-event data-estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e.g. from radar data or a denser rain-gauge network. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post-event data, to reasonably reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event. The method proposed here can be part of a Bayesian framework in which more events

  4. Developing a Global Database of Historic Flood Events to Support Machine Learning Flood Prediction in Google Earth Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Slayback, D. A.; Kuhn, C.; Doyle, C.

    2016-12-01

    There is an increasing need to understand flood vulnerability as the societal and economic effects of flooding increases. Risk models from insurance companies and flood models from hydrologists must be calibrated based on flood observations in order to make future predictions that can improve planning and help societies reduce future disasters. Specifically, to improve these models both traditional methods of flood prediction from physically based models as well as data-driven techniques, such as machine learning, require spatial flood observation to validate model outputs and quantify uncertainty. A key dataset that is missing for flood model validation is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Currently, the most advanced database of historical flood extent is hosted and maintained at the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) that has catalogued 4320 floods (1985-2015) but has only mapped 5% of these floods. We are addressing this data gap by mapping the inventory of floods in the DFO database to create a first-of- its-kind, comprehensive, global and historical geospatial database of flood events. To do so, we combine water detection algorithms on MODIS and Landsat 5,7 and 8 imagery in Google Earth Engine to map discrete flood events. The created database will be available in the Earth Engine Catalogue for download by country, region, or time period. This dataset can be leveraged for new data-driven hydrologic modeling using machine learning algorithms in Earth Engine's highly parallelized computing environment, and we will show examples for New York and Senegal.

  5. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Grames

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  6. FloodProBE: technologies for improved safety of the built environment in relation to flood events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ree, C.C.D.F. van; Van, M.A.; Heilemann, K.; Morris, M.W.; Royet, P.; Zevenbergen, C.

    2011-01-01

    The FloodProBE project started as a FP7 research project in November 2009. Floods, together with wind related storms, are considered the major natural hazard in the EU in terms of risk to people and assets. In order to adapt urban areas (in river and coastal zones) to prevent flooding or to be better prepared for floods, decision makers need to determine how to upgrade flood defences and increasing flood resilience of protected buildings and critical infrastructure (power supplies, communications, water, transport, etc.) and assess the expected risk reduction from these measures. The aim of the FloodProBE-project is to improve knowledge on flood resilience and flood protection performance for balancing investments in flood risk management in urban areas. To this end, technologies, methods and tools for assessment purposes and for the adaptation of new and existing buildings and critical infrastructure are developed, tested and disseminated. Three priority areas are addressed by FloodProBE. These are: (i) vulnerability of critical infrastructure and high-density value assets including direct and indirect damage, (ii) the assessment and reliability of urban flood defences including the use of geophysical methods and remote sensing techniques and (iii) concepts and technologies for upgrading weak links in flood defences as well as construction technologies for flood proofing buildings and infrastructure networks to increase the flood resilience of the urban system. The primary impact of FloodProBE in advancing knowledge in these areas is an increase in the cost-effectiveness (i.e. performance) of new and existing flood protection structures and flood resilience measures.

  7. IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURAL FLOOD MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZVIJAKOVA LENKA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to propose a methodology for assessing water constructions, which will allow impact assessment of water constructions on the environment and hence select the best option for the permission process. The result is “Guideline for environmental impact assessment of flood protection object”, which uses the method of UMRA (universal matrix of risk analysis, which is one of the methods of risk analysis proposed not only to enhance the transparency and sensitivity of the evaluation process, but also to cope with the requirements of the EIA system in the Slovakia and Europe Union.

  8. Error Analysis of Satellite Precipitation-Driven Modeling of Flood Events in Complex Alpine Terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiwen Mei

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The error in satellite precipitation-driven complex terrain flood simulations is characterized in this study for eight different global satellite products and 128 flood events over the Eastern Italian Alps. The flood events are grouped according to two flood types: rain floods and flash floods. The satellite precipitation products and runoff simulations are evaluated based on systematic and random error metrics applied on the matched event pairs and basin-scale event properties (i.e., rainfall and runoff cumulative depth and time series shape. Overall, error characteristics exhibit dependency on the flood type. Generally, timing of the event precipitation mass center and dispersion of the time series derived from satellite precipitation exhibits good agreement with the reference; the cumulative depth is mostly underestimated. The study shows a dampening effect in both systematic and random error components of the satellite-driven hydrograph relative to the satellite-retrieved hyetograph. The systematic error in shape of the time series shows a significant dampening effect. The random error dampening effect is less pronounced for the flash flood events and the rain flood events with a high runoff coefficient. This event-based analysis of the satellite precipitation error propagation in flood modeling sheds light on the application of satellite precipitation in mountain flood hydrology.

  9. Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, C.; Fayne, Jessica

    2016-01-01

    Floods are the costliest natural disaster (United Nations 2004), causing approximately6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone (Doocy et al. 2013).Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD(Munich Re 2013). Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries (Davies et al. 2014).Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change (IPCC 2007). Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assessflooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure.

  10. Assimilation of flood extent data with 2D flood inundation models for localised intense rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, J. C.; Wood, M.; Bermúdez, M.; Hostache, R.; Freer, J. E.; Bates, P. D.; Coxon, G.

    2017-12-01

    Remote sensing of flood inundation extent has long been a potential source of data for constraining and correcting simulations of floodplain inundation. Hydrodynamic models and the computing resources to run them have developed to the extent that simulation of flood inundation in two-dimensional space is now feasible over large river basins in near real-time. However, despite substantial evidence that there is useful information content within inundation extent data, even from low resolution SAR such as that gathered by Envisat ASAR in wide swath mode, making use of the information in a data assimilation system has proved difficult. He we review recent applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter for assimilating SAR data, with a focus on the River Severn UK and compare these with complementary research that has looked at the internal error sources and boundary condition errors using detailed terrestrial data that is not available in most locations. Previous applications of the EnKF to this reach have focused on upstream boundary conditions as the source of flow error, however this description of errors was too simplistic for the simulation of summer flood events where localised intense rainfall can be substantial. Therefore, we evaluate the introduction of uncertain lateral inflows to the ensemble. A further limitation of the existing EnKF based methods is the need to convert flood extent to water surface elevations by intersecting the shoreline location with a high quality digital elevation model (e.g. LiDAR). To simplify this data processing step, we evaluate a method to directly assimilate inundation extent as a EnKF model state rather than assimilating water heights, potentially allowing the scheme to be used where high-quality terrain data are sparse.

  11. Impacts of extreme flooding on riverbank filtration water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascott, M J; Lapworth, D J; Gooddy, D C; Sage, R C; Karapanos, I

    2016-06-01

    Riverbank filtration schemes form a significant component of public water treatment processes on a global level. Understanding the resilience and water quality recovery of these systems following severe flooding is critical for effective water resources management under potential future climate change. This paper assesses the impact of floodplain inundation on the water quality of a shallow aquifer riverbank filtration system and how water quality recovers following an extreme (1 in 17 year, duration >70 days, 7 day inundation) flood event. During the inundation event, riverbank filtrate water quality is dominated by rapid direct recharge and floodwater infiltration (high fraction of surface water, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) >140% baseline values, >1 log increase in micro-organic contaminants, microbial detects and turbidity, low specific electrical conductivity (SEC) 400% baseline). A rapid recovery is observed in water quality with most floodwater impacts only observed for 2-3 weeks after the flooding event and a return to normal groundwater conditions within 6 weeks (lower fraction of surface water, higher SEC, lower DOC, organic and microbial detects, DO). Recovery rates are constrained by the hydrogeological site setting, the abstraction regime and the water quality trends at site boundary conditions. In this case, increased abstraction rates and a high transmissivity aquifer facilitate rapid water quality recoveries, with longer term trends controlled by background river and groundwater qualities. Temporary reductions in abstraction rates appear to slow water quality recoveries. Flexible operating regimes such as the one implemented at this study site are likely to be required if shallow aquifer riverbank filtration systems are to be resilient to future inundation events. Development of a conceptual understanding of hydrochemical boundaries and site hydrogeology through monitoring is required to assess the suitability of a prospective riverbank filtration

  12. Flooding and subsidence in the Thames Gateway: impact on insurance loss potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royse, Katherine; Horn, Diane; Eldridge, Jillian; Barker, Karen

    2010-05-01

    In the UK, household buildings insurance generally covers loss and damage to the insured property from a range of natural and human perils, including windstorm, flood, subsidence, theft, accidental fire and winter freeze. Consequently, insurers require a reasoned view on the likely scale of losses that they may face to assist in strategic planning, reinsurance structuring, regulatory returns and general risk management. The UK summer 2007 flood events not only provided a clear indication of the scale of potential losses that the industry could face from an individual event, with £3 billion in claims, but also identified a need for insurers and reinsurers to better understand how events may correlate in time and space, and how to most effectively use the computational models of extreme events that are commonly applied to reflect these correlations. In addition to the potential for temporal clustering of events such as windstorms and floods, there is a possibility that seemingly uncorrelated natural perils, such as floods and subsidence, may impact an insurer's portfolio. Where aggregations of large numbers of new properties are planned, such as in the Thames Gateway, consideration of the potential future risk of aggregate losses due to the combination of perils such as subsidence and flood is increasingly important within the insurance company's strategic risk management process. Whilst perils such as subsidence and flooding are generally considered independent within risk modelling, the potential for one event to influence the magnitude and likelihood of the other should be taken into account when determining risk level. In addition, the impact of correlated, but distinctive, loss causing events on particular property types may be significant, particularly if a specific property is designed to protect against one peril but is potentially susceptible to another. We suggest that flood events can lead to increased subsidence risk due to the weight of additional water

  13. Extreme precipitation and floods in the Iberian Peninsula and its socio-economic impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Pereira, S.; Trigo, R. M.; Zêzere, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula can induce floods and landslides that have often major socio-economic impacts. The DISASTER database gathered the basic information on past floods and landslides that caused social consequences in Portugal for the period 1865-2015. This database was built under the assumption that social consequences of floods and landslides are sufficient relevant to be reported by newspapers, that provide the data source. Three extreme historical events were analysed in detail taking into account their associated wide socio-economic impacts. The December 1876 record precipitation and flood event leading to an all-time record flow in two large international rivers (Tagus and Guadiana). As a direct consequence, several Portuguese and Spanish towns and villages located in the banks of both rivers suffered serious flood damage on 7 December 1876. The 20-28 December 1909 event recorded the highest number of flood and landslide cases that occurred in Portugal in the period 1865-2015, having triggered the highest floods in 200 years at the Douro river's mouth and causing 89 fatalities in both Portugal and Spain northern regions. More recently the deadliest flash-flooding event affecting Portugal since, at least, the early 19th century, took place on the 25 and 26 November 1967 causing more than 500 fatalities in the Lisbon region. We provide a detailed analysis of each of these events, including their human impacts, precipitation analyses based on historical datasets and the associated atmospheric circulation conditions from reanalysis datasets. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/ SFRH/BPD/84328/2012). The financial support for attending

  14. Flood Progression Modelling and Impact Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Nickerson, B.

    People living in the lower valley of the St. John River, New Brunswick, Canada, frequently experience flooding when the river overflows its banks during spring ice melt and rain. To better prepare the population of New Brunswick for extreme flooding, we developed a new flood prediction model...

  15. Impacts of dyke development in flood prone areas in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta to downstream flood hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanh Triet Nguyen, Van; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Fujii, Hideto; Kummu, Matti; Merz, Bruno; Apel, Heiko

    2016-04-01

    The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) plays an important role in food security and socio-economic development of the country. Being a low-lying coastal region, the VMD is particularly susceptible to both riverine and tidal floods, which provide, on (the) one hand, the basis for the rich agricultural production and the livelihood of the people, but on the other hand pose a considerable hazard depending on the severity of the floods. But despite of potentially hazardous flood, the area remain active as a rice granary due to its nutrient-rich soils and sediment input, and dense waterways, canals and the long standing experience of the population living with floods. In response to both farmers' requests and governmental plans, the construction of flood protection infrastructure in the delta progressed rapidly in the last twenty years, notably at areas prone to deep flooding, i.e. the Plain of Reeds (PoR) and Long Xuyen Quadrangle (LXQ). Triple rice cropping becomes possible in farmlands enclosed by "full-dykes", i.e. dykes strong and high enough to prevent flooding of the flood plains for most of the floods. In these protected flood plains rice can be grown even during the peak flood period (September to November). However, little is known about the possibly (and already alleged) negative impacts of this fully flood protection measure to downstream areas. This study aims at quantifying how the flood regime in the lower part of the VMD (e.g. Can Tho, My Thuan, …) has been changed in the last 2 recent "big flood" events of 2000 and 2011 due to the construction of the full-dyke system in the upper part. First, an evaluation of 35 years of daily water level data was performed in order to detect trends at key gauging stations: Kratie: upper boundary of the Delta, Tan Chau and Chau Doc: areas with full-dyke construction, Can Tho and My Thuan: downstream. Results from the Mann-Kendall (MK) test show a decreasing trend of the annual maximum water level at 3 stations Kratie, Tan

  16. AP1000R design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J.

    2012-01-01

    Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000 R nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel containment vessel which is

  17. AP1000{sup R} design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J. [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, 1000 Westinghouse Drive, Cranberry Township, PA 16066 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000{sup R} nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel

  18. Climate change impact on flood hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Brilly

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes have a high impact on river discharges and therefore on floods. There are a few different methods we can use to predict discharge changes in the future. In this paper we used the complex HBV model for the Vipava River and simple correlation between discharge and precipitation data for the Soča River. The discharge prediction is based on the E-OBS precipitation data for three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Estimated discharges for those three future periods are presented for both rivers. But a special situation occurs at the confluence where the two rivers with rather different catchments unite, and this requires an additional probability analysis.

  19. Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

  20. Interpreting the impact of flood forecasts by combining policy analysis studies and flood defence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slomp Robert

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood forecasting is necessary to save lives and reduce damages. Reducing damages is important to save livelihoods and to reduce the recovery time. Flood alerts should contain expected time of the event, location and extent of the event. A flood alert is not only one message but part of a rehearsed flow of information using multiple canals. First people have to accept the fact that there might be a threat and what the threat is about. People need a reference to understand the situation and be aware of possible measures they can take to assure their own safety and reduce damages. Information to the general public has to be consistent with the information used by emergency services and has to be very clear about consequences and context of possible measures (as shelter in place or preventive evacuation. Emergency services should monitor how the public is responding to adapt their communication en operation during a crisis. Flood warnings and emergency services are often coordinated by different government organisations. This is an extra handicap for having consistent information out on time for people to use. In an information based society, where everyone has twitter, email and a camera, public organisations may have to trust the public more and send out the correct information as it comes in. In the Netherlands Rijkswaterstaat, the National Water Authority and the National Public Works Department, is responsible for or involved in forecasting in case of floods, policy studies on flood risk, policy studies on maintenance, assessment and design of flood defences, elaborating rules and regulations for flood defences, advice on crisis management to the national government and for maintaining the main infrastructure in the Netherlands (high ways and water ways. The Water Management Center in the Netherlands (WMCN has developed a number of models to provide flood forecasts. WMCN is run for and by all managers of flood defences and is hosted by

  1. Social impact of the 2004 Manawatu floods and the 'hollowing out' of rural New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Willie; Davies-Colley, Christian; Mackay, Alec; Bankoff, Greg

    2011-07-01

    The Manawatu floods of 2004 have had significant, long-lasting social consequences. This paper draws on findings from a series of detailed surveys of 39 farm households directly affected by the floods and 17 individuals directly involved in managing the flood recovery programme. The nature of the impact on rural families highlights how the 'hollowing out' of rural New Zealand has changed the capacity of rural communities to respond to natural hazards and increased their sense of isolation. In addition, the floods exposed the vulnerability of rural communities. This is shown to have implications for policies designed to build resilience and improve responses to adverse events, including the need to support local, community initiatives on self-reliance and mutual support. Approaches to manage better long-term flood risks should be designed within a context of ongoing rural decline that has compromised the health of both individuals and communities. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

  2. Societal and economic impacts of flood hazards in Turkey – an overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koç Gamze

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Turkey has been severely affected by many natural hazards, in particular earthquakes and floods. Although there is a large body of literature on earthquake hazards and risks in Turkey, comparatively little is known about flood hazards and risks. Therefore, with this study it is aimed to investigate flood patterns, societal and economic impacts of flood hazards in Turkey, as well as providing a comparative overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses by analysing EM-DAT (Emergency Events Database and TABB (Turkey Disaster Data Base databases on disaster losses throughout Turkey for the years 1960-2014. The comparison of these two databases reveals big mismatches of the flood data, e.g. the reported number of events, number of affected people and economic loss, differ dramatically. With this paper, it has been explored reasons for mismatches. Biases and fallacies for loss data in the two databases has been discussed as well. Since loss data collection is gaining more and more attention, e.g. in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR, the study could offer a base-work for developing guidelines and procedures on how to standardize loss databases and implement across the other hazard events, as well as substantial insights for flood risk mitigation and adaptation studies in Turkey and will offer valuable insights for other (European countries.

  3. Hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events in the Kashmir valley in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Manoj; Parvaze, Sabah

    2017-04-01

    Floods are one of the most predominant, costly and deadly hazards of all natural vulnerabilities. Every year, floods exert a heavy toll on human life and property in many parts of the world. The prediction of river stages and discharge during flood extremes plays a vital role in planning structural and non-structural measures of flood management. The predictions are also valuable to prepare the flood inundation maps and river floodplain zoning. In the Kashmir Valley, floods occur mainly and very often in the Jhelum Basin mostly due to extreme precipitation events and rugged mountainous topography of the basin. These floods cause extreme damage to life and property in the valley from time to time. Excessive rainfall, particularly in higher sub-catchments causes the snow to melt resulting in excessive runoff downhill to the streams causing floods in the Kashmir Valley where Srinagar city is located. However, very few hydrological studies have been undertaken for the Jhelum Basin mainly due to non-availability of hydrological data due to very complex mountainous terrain. Therefore, the present study has been conducted to model the extreme flood events in the Jhelum Basin in Kashmir Valley. An integrated NAM and MIKE 11 HD model has been setup for Jhelum basin up to Ram Munshi Bagh gauging site and then four most extreme historical flood events in the time series has been analyzed separately including the most recent and most extreme flood event of 2014. In September 2014, the Kashmir Valley witnessed the most severe flood in the past 60 years due to catastrophic rainfall from 1st to 6th September wherein the valley received unprecedented rainfall of more than 650 mm in just 3 days breaking record of many decades. The MIKE 11 HD and NAM model has been calibrated using 21 years (1985-2005) data and validated using 9 years (2006-2014) data. The efficiency indices of the model for calibration and validation period is 0.749 and 0.792 respectively. The model simulated

  4. Economic impact of cultural events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Saayman

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of events can hardly be described as a new one.  The aim of this paper is to determine the economic benefits of three major cultural events in South Africa to the host community.  Measuring the economic impact normally entails some estimation of the cash injection into a region by visitors and applying the relevant multiplier to arrive at a monetary estimate of the economic impact.  But few regions or municipal areas have detailed economic data to construct a type of input-output model and derive a multiplier.  The purpose of the methods used in this research were firstly to determine the estimated cash injection, secondly to estimate the size of leakages in the local economy and thirdly to derive an appropriate multiplier to estimate the economic impact of the event.

  5. Flood menace in Kaduna Metropolis: impacts, remedial and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study assesses how Kaduna Metropolis have been affected by flood menace incidences as it takes a look at the devastating impacts, remedial and management strategies at curbing flooding in Kaduna Metropolis which has almost become a yearly occurrence. Data for this study were obtained from questionnaires, ...

  6. Lava flooding of ancient planetary crusts: geometry, thickness, and volumes of flooded lunar impact basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Head, J.W.

    1982-01-01

    Estimates of lava volumes on planetary surfaces provide important data on the lava flooding history and thermal evolution of a planet. Lack of information concerning the configuration of the topography prior to volcanic flooding requires the use of a variety of techniques to estimate lava thicknesses and volumes. A technique is described and developed which provides volume estimates by artificially flooding unflooded lunar topography characteristic of certain geological environments, and tracking the area covered, lava thicknesses, and lava volumes. Comparisons of map patterns of incompletely buried topography in these artificially flooded areas are then made to lava-flooded topography on the Moon in order to estimate the actual lava volumes. This technique is applied to two areas related to lunar impact basins; the relatively unflooded Orientale basin, and the Archimedes-Apennine Bench region of the Imbrium basin. (Auth.)

  7. Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

  8. Extensive spatio-temporal assessment of flood events by application of pair-copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schulte

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Although the consequences of floods are strongly related to their peak discharges, a statistical classification of flood events that only depends on these peaks may not be sufficient for flood risk assessments. In many cases, the flood risk depends on a number of event characteristics. In case of an extreme flood, the whole river basin may be affected instead of a single watershed, and there will be superposition of peak discharges from adjoining catchments. These peaks differ in size and timing according to the spatial distribution of precipitation and watershed-specific processes of flood formation. Thus, the spatial characteristics of flood events should be considered as stochastic processes. Hence, there is a need for a multivariate statistical approach that represents the spatial interdependencies between floods from different watersheds and their coincidences. This paper addresses the question how these spatial interdependencies can be quantified. Each flood event is not only assessed with regard to its local conditions but also according to its spatio-temporal pattern within the river basin. In this paper we characterise the coincidence of floods by trivariate Joe-copula and pair-copulas. Their ability to link the marginal distributions of the variates while maintaining their dependence structure characterizes them as an adequate method. The results indicate that the trivariate copula model is able to represent the multivariate probabilities of the occurrence of simultaneous flood peaks well. It is suggested that the approach of this paper is very useful for the risk-based design of retention basins as it accounts for the complex spatio-temporal interactions of floods.

  9. The flood of June 2013 in Germany: how much do we know about its impacts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieken, Annegret H.; Bessel, Tina; Kienzler, Sarah; Kreibich, Heidi; Müller, Meike; Pisi, Sebastian; Schröter, Kai

    2016-07-01

    In June 2013, widespread flooding and consequent damage and losses occurred in Central Europe, especially in Germany. This paper explores what data are available to investigate the adverse impacts of the event, what kind of information can be retrieved from these data and how well data and information fulfil requirements that were recently proposed for disaster reporting on the European and international levels. In accordance with the European Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), impacts on human health, economic activities (and assets), cultural heritage and the environment are described on the national and sub-national scale. Information from governmental reports is complemented by communications on traffic disruptions and surveys of flood-affected residents and companies. Overall, the impacts of the flood event in 2013 were manifold. The study reveals that flood-affected residents suffered from a large range of impacts, among which mental health and supply problems were perceived more seriously than financial losses. The most frequent damage type among affected companies was business interruption. This demonstrates that the current scientific focus on direct (financial) damage is insufficient to describe the overall impacts and severity of flood events. The case further demonstrates that procedures and standards for impact data collection in Germany are widely missing. Present impact data in Germany are fragmentary, heterogeneous, incomplete and difficult to access. In order to fulfil, for example, the monitoring and reporting requirements of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 that was adopted in March 2015 in Sendai, Japan, more efforts on impact data collection are needed.

  10. Detrital phosphorus as a proxy of flooding events in the Changjiang River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meng, Jia [Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Technology, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266100 (China); College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100 (China); Yao, Peng, E-mail: yaopeng@mail.ouc.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Technology, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266100 (China); Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266100 (China); Institute of Marine Organic Geochemistry, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100 (China); Bianchi, Thomas S. [Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-2120 (United States); Li, Dong; Zhao, Bin; Xu, Bochao [Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Technology, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266100 (China); College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100 (China); Yu, Zhigang [Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Technology, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266100 (China); Institute of Marine Organic Geochemistry, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100 (China)

    2015-06-01

    In this study, sediment grain size (MGS), specific surface area (SSA), total organic carbon (TOC) contents, C/N molar ratios, stable carbon isotope, and P species in a sediment core, collected from the East China Sea (ECS) inner-shelf were measured to explore the applicability of detrital phosphorus (De-P) as a potential indicator of past flooding events in the Changjiang River Basin (CRB). In particular, we examined the linkages between the evolution of floods with regional climate changes and anthropogenic activities in the CRB. Peaks of De-P concentrations in sediments corresponded well with the worst flooding events of the CRB over the past two centuries (e.g., 1850s, 1860s, 1900s, 1920s, 1950s, 1980s, and 2000s). Moreover, De-P also corresponded well with the extreme hypoxic events in 1981 and 1998 in the Changjiang Estuary as indicated by Mo/Al ratios, indicating potential linkages between De-P as a flooding proxy to flood-induced hypoxia events in this region. In addition, a robust relationship was found among De-P, the floods in 1950s, 1980s, and 2000s of the CRB, the intensive El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the abnormally weak East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and the warm phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), suggesting that De-P also provided insights to linkages between regional climate change and flooding events in this region. - Highlights: • De-P was used to track past floods in the Changjiang River Basin (CRB). • De-P may serve as a proxy for flood-induced hypoxia events in the Changjiang Estuary. • De-P may be a proxy for examining linkages between floods and climatic drivers.

  11. Detrital phosphorus as a proxy of flooding events in the Changjiang River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, Jia; Yao, Peng; Bianchi, Thomas S.; Li, Dong; Zhao, Bin; Xu, Bochao; Yu, Zhigang

    2015-01-01

    In this study, sediment grain size (MGS), specific surface area (SSA), total organic carbon (TOC) contents, C/N molar ratios, stable carbon isotope, and P species in a sediment core, collected from the East China Sea (ECS) inner-shelf were measured to explore the applicability of detrital phosphorus (De-P) as a potential indicator of past flooding events in the Changjiang River Basin (CRB). In particular, we examined the linkages between the evolution of floods with regional climate changes and anthropogenic activities in the CRB. Peaks of De-P concentrations in sediments corresponded well with the worst flooding events of the CRB over the past two centuries (e.g., 1850s, 1860s, 1900s, 1920s, 1950s, 1980s, and 2000s). Moreover, De-P also corresponded well with the extreme hypoxic events in 1981 and 1998 in the Changjiang Estuary as indicated by Mo/Al ratios, indicating potential linkages between De-P as a flooding proxy to flood-induced hypoxia events in this region. In addition, a robust relationship was found among De-P, the floods in 1950s, 1980s, and 2000s of the CRB, the intensive El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the abnormally weak East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and the warm phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), suggesting that De-P also provided insights to linkages between regional climate change and flooding events in this region. - Highlights: • De-P was used to track past floods in the Changjiang River Basin (CRB). • De-P may serve as a proxy for flood-induced hypoxia events in the Changjiang Estuary. • De-P may be a proxy for examining linkages between floods and climatic drivers

  12. Regional flood impact assessment for Kiel and Eckernförde, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shustikova, Iuliia; Viavattene, Christophe; Seiß, Guntram

    2017-04-01

    It is well-observed that extreme flood events bring considerable destruction to coastal communities. The estimates of damage increases when direct and indirect losses are both considered in the assessment. This study applied the INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model which is designed to estimate and compare not only tangible but also intangible losses such as risk to life, recovery mechanisms and household displacement. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was performed in order to compare hotspots of high flood risk on the regional scale and detect which impact indicators influence results the most. INDRA allowed assessing the following impact indicators: direct damages to buildings and roads, transport disruption, risk to life and financial recovery mechanisms of private households and businesses. The focus was on two hotspots of flood risk, where direct and indirect impacts from 200 years flood were assessed and analyzed in terms of relative importance to the region. The region here was defined as municipalities located on the Baltic Sea coast within the Schleswig-Holstein state, Germany. The hotspots are the towns of Kiel and Eckernförde. They are urban areas with a high concentration of people and assets, which previously experienced extreme flood events. From the performed investigation it was found out that modeled flood differently impacts Kiel and Eckernförde. The results produced by MCA show that the scores of direct and indirect damage are slightly higher in Eckernförde than in Kiel. Transport disruption is a compelling element in the performed regional impact assessment and demonstrated immense weight. Extreme events may pose significant direct and indirect impacts on the coastal roads, obstructing not only the access to important landmarks such as hospitals, train stations, harbors, etc. but also to contiguous municipalities. Yet, the analysis showed that other impact indicators are rather of local importance and would not cause vast damage on a

  13. Mental health impacts of flooding: a controlled interrupted time series analysis of prescribing data in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milojevic, Ai; Armstrong, Ben; Wilkinson, Paul

    2017-10-01

    There is emerging evidence that people affected by flooding suffer adverse impacts on their mental well-being, mostly based on self-reports. We examined prescription records for drugs used in the management of common mental disorder among primary care practices located in the vicinity of recent large flood events in England, 2011-2014. A controlled interrupted time series analysis was conducted of the number of prescribing items for antidepressant drugs in the year before and after the flood onset. Pre-post changes were compared by distance of the practice from the inundated boundaries among 930 practices located within 10 km of a flood. After control for deprivation and population density, there was an increase of 0.59% (95% CI 0.24 to 0.94) prescriptions in the postflood year among practices located within 1 km of a flood over and above the change observed in the furthest distance band. The increase was greater in more deprived areas. This study suggests an increase in prescribed antidepressant drugs in the year after flooding in primary care practices close to recent major floods in England. The degree to which the increase is actually concentrated in those flooded can only be determined by more detailed linkage studies. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  14. Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Enhance Flood Impact Products and Mitigation in the Lower Mekong Water Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, C.; Gao, M.; Spruce, J.; Bolten, J. D.; Weber, S.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation discusses results of a project to develop a near real time flood monitoring capability for the Lower Mekong Water Basin (LMB), the largest river basin in Southeast Asia and home to more than sixty million people. The region has seen rapid population growth and socio-economic development, fueling unsustainable deforestation, agricultural expansion, and stream-flow regulation. The basin supports substantial rice farming and other agrarian activities, which heavily depend upon seasonal flooding. But, floods due to typhoons and other severe weather events can result in disasters that cost millions of dollars and cause hardships to millions of people. This study uses near real time and historical Aqua and Terra MODIS 250-m resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products to map flood and drought impact within the LMB. In doing so, NDVI change products are derived by comparing from NDVI during the wet season to a baseline NDVI from the dry season. The method records flood events, which cause drastic decreases in NDVI compared to non-flooded conditions. NDVI change product computation was automated for updating a near real-time system, as part of the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites Disaster Risk Management Observation Strategy. The system is a web-based 'Flood Dashboard that will showcase MODIS flood monitoring products, along with other flood mapping and weather data products. This flood dashboard enables end-users to view and assess a variety of geospatial data to monitor floods and flood impacts in near real-time, as well provides a platform for further data aggregation for flood prediction modeling and post-event assessment.

  15. Floods characterization: from impact data to quantitative assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Marcos, Raül; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Turco, Marco

    2015-04-01

    This study is based on the following flood databases from Catalonia: INUNGAMA (1900-2010) which considers 372 floods (Llasat et al, 2014), PRESSGAMA (1981-2010) and HISTOGAMA (from XIV Century on) - built as part of SPHERE project and recently updated. These databases store information about flood impacts (among others) and classify them by their severity (catastrophic, extraordinary and ordinary) by means of an indicators matrix based on other studies (i.e. Petrucci et al, 2013; Llasat et al, 2013). On this research we present a comparison between flood impacts, flow data and rainfall data on a Catalan scale and particularly for the basins of Segre, Muga, Ter and Llobregat (Western Mediterranean). From a bottom-up approach, a statistical methodology has been built (trend analysis, measures of position, cumulative distribution functions and geostatistics) in order to identify quantitative thresholds that will make possible to classify the floods. The purpose of this study is to establish generic thresholds for the whole Catalan region, for this we have selected rainfall maximums of flooding episodes stored at INUNGAMA and they have been related to flood categories by boxplot diagrams. Regarding the stream flow, we have established a relation between impacts and return periods at the day when the flow is maximum. The aim is to homogenize and compare the different drainage basins and to obtain general thresholds. It is also presented detailed analyses of relations between flooding episodes, flood classification and weather typing schemes - based in Jenkinson and Collison classification (applied to the Iberian Peninsula by Spellmann, 2000). In this way it could be analyzed whether patterns for the different types of floods exist or not. Finally, this work has pointed out the need of defining a new category for the most severe episodes.

  16. EPISODIC EVENTS: THE EFFECT OF FLOODS ON NUTRIENT TRANSPORT IN A NORTHWESTERN, USA ESTUARY

    Science.gov (United States)

    To estimate the effects of storms on nutrient transport, dissolved nutrients and suspended sediment loads were measured relative to stream discharge in the Yaquina River, OR for three storm events. Episodic events, particularly high rainfall or flood events may transport high di...

  17. Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; hide

    2016-01-01

    Increased Exposure to Extreme Events Key Finding 1: Health impacts associated with climate-related changes in exposure to extreme events include death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health[High Confidence]. Climate change will increase exposure risk in some regions of the United States due to projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of drought, wildfires, and flooding related to extreme precipitation and hurricanes [Medium Confidence].Disruption of Essential Infrastructure Key Finding 2: Many types of extreme events related to climate change cause disruption of infrastructure, including power, water, transportation, and communication systems, that are essential to maintaining access to health care and emergency response services and safeguarding human health [High Confidence].Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding Key Finding 3: Coastal populations with greater vulnerability to health impacts from coastal flooding include persons with disabilities or other access and functional needs, certain populations of color, older adults, pregnant women and children, low-income populations, and some occupational groups [High Confidence].Climate change will increase exposure risk to coastal flooding due to increases in extreme precipitation and in hurricane intensity and rainfall rates, as well as sea level rise and the resulting increases in storm surge.

  18. Socio-economic impacts of major floods in Italy from 1951 to 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lastoria, B.; Simonetti, M. R.; Casaioli, M.; Mariani, S.; Monacelli, G.

    2006-03-01

    Meteorological and hydrological monitoring and modeling, with particular regard for extreme hydrological events, represent important activities carried out by the Hydrological and Inland Waters Service of the Italian Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services (APAT). Recently, a study on the socio-economic effects of floods was published in the Italian Environmental Data Yearbook by APAT. It is based on processed data related to the major floods (i.e., events with at least a casualty or that have generated economic damages higher than 0.001% of the Gross Domestic Product) striking Italy between 1951 and 2003. Information was gathered from technical reports and/or databases belonging to APAT, Italian Regional Environmental Agencies (ARPAs), central and local authorities, research institutions and newspaper reports. These data are collected in tables reporting the number of flood events and of casualties and the amount of financial resources required for environmental restoration and/or for risk mitigation purposes. For year 2003, when APAT has begun a systematic monitoring of flood events in Italy, data concerning rainfall, number of persons involved, evacuation and urgent measures introduced to face the event (laws and acts) are also included. In this way, it was possible to realize a new database, in which flood events that caused the declaration of the state of emergency have been collected. Because of the difficulties in finding sufficiently reliable data for the period before the II World War, the collection of historical data started from 1951. During this period, about 50% of the flood events examined have caused at least 5 victims each, and about 10% more than 100; these data highlight the considerable social impact of flood events and suggest the importance of creating an integrated database to collect information about flood events involving all Europe. These two databases (the historical and updating archives) could be useful for taking

  19. The record precipitation and flood event in Iberia in December 1876: description and synoptic analysis

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    Ricardo Machado Trigo

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The first week of December 1876 was marked by extreme weather conditions that affected the south-western sector of the Iberian Peninsula, leading to an all-time record flow in two large international rivers. As a direct consequence, several Portuguese and Spanish towns and villages located in the banks of both rivers suffered serious flood damage on 7 December 1876. These unusual floods were amplified by the preceding particularly autumn wet months, with October 1876 presenting extremely high precipitation anomalies for all western Iberia stations. Two recently digitised stations in Portugal (Lisbon and Evora, present a peak value on 5 December 1876. Furthermore, the values of precipitation registered between 28 November and 7 December were so remarkable that, the episode of 1876 still corresponds to the maximum average daily precipitation values for temporal scales between 2 and 10 days. Using several different data sources, such as historical newspapers of that time, meteorological data recently digitised from several stations in Portugal and Spain and the recently available 20th Century Reanalysis, we provide a detailed analysis on the socio-economic impacts, precipitation values and the atmospheric circulation conditions associated with this event. The atmospheric circulation during these months was assessed at the monthly, daily and sub-daily scales. All months considered present an intense negative NAO index value, with November 1876 corresponding to the lowest NAO value on record since 1865. We have also computed a multivariable analysis of surface and upper air fields in order to provide some enlightening into the evolution of the synoptic conditions in the week prior to the floods. These events resulted from the continuous pouring of precipitation registered between 28 November and 7 December, due to the consecutive passage of Atlantic low-pressure systems fuelled by the presence of an atmospheric-river tropical moisture flow over

  20. The Impact of Changing Storage Area on Flood Magnitude and Occurrence

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    Kusumastuti D.I.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the impact of combined catchment and storage upon flood occurrences and flood peaks. A significant factor that plays an important role of the combined catchment and storage is the ratio of contributing catchment area to storage area (AC/AS where the impact significantly shows increasing frequency of storage overflow and flood peaks with the increasing of AC/AS. Some case studies examined in this work, i.e. Way Pegadungan (Lampung, Sumatra and NagaraRiver (South Kalimantan catchments show similar behavior. Swamps located on the sides of downstream of Way Pegadungan as well as Nagara River act as storages during flood events. The dyke which was planned to be built increases the ratio of AC/AS significantly as storage area reduced considerably. This has an impact on flood peaks which can increase considerably. The improved understanding of these process controls will be useful in assisting the management of such catchments, particularly to assist in flood prevention and mitigation.

  1. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

    2017-01-01

    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  2. Near-Bed Monitoring of Suspended Sediment during a Major Flood Event Highlights Deficiencies in Existing Event-Loading Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alistair Grinham

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Rates of fluvial sediment discharge are notoriously difficult to quantify, particularly during major flood events. Measurements are typically undertaken using event stations requiring large capital investment, and the high cost tends to reduce the spatial coverage of monitoring sites. This study aimed to characterise the near-bed suspended sediment dynamics during a major flood event using a low-cost approach. Monitoring nodes consisted of a total suspended sediment (TSS logger, a single stage sampler, and a time-lapse camera for a total cost of less than US$420. Seven nodes were deployed across an elevation gradient on the stream bank of Laidley Creek, Queensland, Australia, and two of these nodes successfully characterised the near-bed suspended sediment dynamics across a major flood event. Near-bed TSS concentrations were closely related to stream flow, with the contribution of suspended bed material dominating the total suspended load during peak flows. Observed TSS concentrations were orders of magnitude higher than historical monitoring data for this site collected using the State government event station. This difference was attributed to the event station pump inlet screening the suspended bed material prior to sample collection. The ‘first flush’ phenomenon was detected and attributed to a local resuspension of muddy crusts immediately upstream of the study site. This low-cost approach will provide an important addition to the existing monitoring of fluvial sediment discharge during flood events.

  3. Regional models for distributed flash-flood nowcasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Bihan Guillaume

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods monitoring systems developed up to now generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-floods magnitudes based on highly distributed hydrological models and weather radar records. The approach presented here aims to go one step ahead by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of flash floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the considered area in order (1 to evaluate based on a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2 to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk based on geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build a simplified impact model (discharge-impact curve for each river reach, which can be used to directly estimate the importance of potentially affected assets based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This article presents a first case study conducted in the Gard region (south eastern France. The first validation results are presented in terms of (1 accuracy of the delineation of the flooded areas estimated based on the Cartino method and using a high resolution DTM, and (2 relevance and usefulness of the impact model obtained. The impacts estimated at the event scale will now be evaluated in a near future based on insurance claim data provided by CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurrance.

  4. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, Cameron; Gutmann, Ethan; Jones, Russell; Rissing, Matthew; Mizukami, Naoki; Lorie, Mark; Mahoney, Hardee; Wood, Andrew W.; Mills, David; Martinich, Jeremy

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  5. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wobus

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS. We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars, suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods. Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  6. Impacts of flood on children and adults’ health and ways to sustainable development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, S.; Ebenehi, I. Y.; Adaji, A.; Seow, T. W.; Chan, N. W.; Goh, K. C.; Rahim, M. H. I. Abd

    2017-11-01

    One of the events that will remain fresh in the minds of Kelantanese is the 2014 massive flood that occurred at the end of that year. Heavy rains fell initiating vast flooding in most areas of Kelantan leading to great destruction of livelihood of local communities. Natural hazard such as floods are not only caused by natural processes but also by human activities. The flood recorded severe fatalities, injuries and exposed many vulnerable to diseases. This paper through critical review of literature considered the long-term impact of floods on human’s health as the effects could meaningfully contribute to the worldwide burden of disease. Also, its outcomes are relentless hence need to be adequately comprehended and addressed through sustainability. This study revealed vulnerability to flood inclined ailments as psychological distress in the survivors is liable for a quota of all physical ailments. Hence, sustainable approach to flood preparedness and prevention is instantly needed. Accolades should be given to the Malaysian government for taken bold steps in that direction in recent time but success will be achieved if implementation is in compliance with sustainability agenda spelt in the New Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030.

  7. FLCNDEMF: An Event Metamodel for Flood Process Information Management under the Sensor Web Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nengcheng Chen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Significant economic losses, large affected populations, and serious environmental damage caused by recurrent natural disaster events (NDE worldwide indicate insufficiency in emergency preparedness and response. The barrier of full life cycle data preparation and information support is one of the main reasons. This paper adopts the method of integrated environmental modeling, incorporates information from existing event protocols, languages, and models, analyzes observation demands from different event stages, and forms the abstract full life cycle natural disaster event metamodel (FLCNDEM based on meta-object facility. Then task library and knowledge base for floods are built to instantiate FLCNDEM, forming the FLCNDEM for floods (FLCNDEMF. FLCNDEMF is formalized according to Event Pattern Markup Language, and a prototype system, Natural Disaster Event Manager, is developed to assist in the template-based modeling and management. The flood in Liangzi (LZ Lake of Hubei, China on 16 July 2010 is adopted to illustrate how to apply FLCNDEM in real scenarios. FLCNDEM-based modeling is realized, and the candidate remote sensing (RS dataset for different observing missions are provided for LZ Lake flood. Taking the mission of flood area extraction as an example, the appropriate RS data are selected via the model of simplified general perturbation version 4, and the flood area in different phases are calculated and displayed on the map. The phase-based modeling and visualization intuitively display the spatial-temporal distribution and the evolution process of the LZ Lake flood, and it is of great significance for flood responding. In addition, through the extension mechanism, FLCNDEM can also be applied in other environmental applications, providing important support for full life cycle information sharing and rapid responding.

  8. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  9. Flood Impacts on People: from Hazard to Risk Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, C.; Castelli, F.

    2017-12-01

    The mitigation of adverse consequences of floods on people is crucial for civil protection and public authorities. According to several studies, in the developed countries the majority of flood-related fatalities occurs due to inappropriate high risk behaviours such as driving and walking in floodwaters. In this work both the loss of stability of vehicles and pedestrians in floodwaters are analysed. Flood hazard is evaluated, based on (i) a 2D inundation model of an urban area, (ii) 3D hydrodynamic simulations of water flows around vehicles and human body and (iii) a dimensional analysis of experimental activity. Exposure and vulnerability of vehicles and population are assessed exploiting several sources of open GIS data in order to produce risk maps for a testing case study. The results show that a significant hazard to vehicles and pedestrians exists in the study area. Particularly high is the hazard to vehicles, which are likely to be swept away by flood flow, possibly aggravate damages to structures and infrastructures and locally alter the flood propagation. Exposure and vulnerability analysis identifies some structures such as schools and public facilities, which may attract several people. Moreover, some shopping facilities in the area, which attract both vehicular and pedestrians' circulation are located in the highest flood hazard zone.The application of the method demonstrates that, at municipal level, such risk maps can support civil defence strategies and education to active citizenship, thus contributing to flood impact reduction to population.

  10. An uncertainty-based framework to quantifying climate change impacts on coastal flood vulnerability: case study of New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad

    2017-10-17

    The continued development efforts around the world, growing population, and the increased probability of occurrence of extreme hydrologic events have adversely affected natural and built environments. Flood damages and loss of lives from the devastating storms, such as Irene and Sandy on the East Coast of the USA, are examples of the vulnerability to flooding that even developed countries have to face. The odds of coastal flooding disasters have been increased due to accelerated sea level rise, climate change impacts, and communities' interest to live near the coastlines. Climate change, for instance, is becoming a major threat to sustainable development because of its adverse impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Effective management strategies are thus required for flood vulnerability reduction and disaster preparedness. This paper is an extension to the flood resilience studies in the New York City coastal watershed. Here, a framework is proposed to quantify coastal flood vulnerability while accounting for climate change impacts. To do so, a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that combines watershed characteristics (factors) and their weights is proposed to quantify flood vulnerability. Among the watershed characteristics, potential variation in the hydrologic factors under climate change impacts is modeled utilizing the general circulation models' (GCMs) outputs. The considered factors include rainfall, extreme water level, and sea level rise that exacerbate flood vulnerability through increasing exposure and susceptibility to flooding. Uncertainty in the weights as well as values of factors is incorporated in the analysis using the Monte Carlo (MC) sampling method by selecting the best-fitted distributions to the parameters with random nature. A number of low impact development (LID) measures are then proposed to improve watershed adaptive capacity to deal with coastal flooding. Potential range of current and future vulnerability to flooding is

  11. Societal impacts and vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh and Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanvir H. Dewan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh and Nepal lie between the Himalayas and low-lying coasts of the Bay of Bengal and are traversed by hundreds of rivers and tributaries. Historical data shows that, since 1970, the scale, intensity and duration of floods have increased in Bangladesh and Nepal, causing grave human suffering; disruptions in normal life and activity, damages of infrastructure, crops and agricultural land with severe impacts on the economy. Bangladesh is affected by torrential rain, glacier melt, upstream water flow and tidal surges. In 1988, Bangladesh experienced one of the most severe floods of the twentieth century which aroused significant concern internationally and triggered the Bangladesh Action Plan for Flood Control. The Government of Bangladesh (GOB has so far constructed a number of flood shelters and carried out 482 water and flood control projects involving flood protection embankments, drainage channels, sluice gates and regulators on different rivers and canals. These also provided safety measures against inundation by tidal waves, storm-surges and flooding. The Terai region of Nepal is highly prone to hydrological risks including torrential rain, floods, glaciers resulting in erosion and landslides. The Government of Nepal (GON has implemented different mitigation measures mainly early warning awareness, rescue measure, relief, and post-flood rehabilitation programs etc. Disaster Management Bureaus of both the countries have already conducted many trainings, workshops and seminars to disseminate scientific knowledge and coping up practices to disaster managers and to create public awareness. Besides the contemporary approaches to mitigating flood effects, people of these countries have coped with floods through generations relying on traditional/indigenous knowledge and other local adaptation practices. It is crucial that along with scientific process, indigenous, traditional and conventional practices are to be integrated for a national

  12. Impact of intense rains and flooding on mercury riverine input to the coastal zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saniewska, Dominika; Bełdowska, Magdalena; Bełdowski, Jacek; Saniewski, Michał; Gębka, Karolina; Szubska, Marta; Wochna, Agnieszka

    2018-02-01

    The aim of the present research was to determine the impact of intense rains and flooding on mercury riverine input to the coastal zone. This study focused on four small rivers (Reda, Zagórska Struga, Płutnica, Gizdepka), typical of the Southern Baltic region, with no significant mercury sources. Samples were collected for 16months during average flow conditions and during selected meteorological events: floods, downpours, thaws and droughts. Results showed decreased retention of mercury during intense rainfalls, thus demonstrating mercury elution from the catchment. Floods and melting snow also have a tremendous impact on the outflow of mercury from the catchment. Development of urban infrastructure and farmlands increases the outflow of mercury from the catchment too, making such areas a significant source of mercury in the river. On the other hand, areas with natural character, predominated by forests, stimulate retention of mercury that reaches them through dry and wet atmospheric deposition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. 3D Simulation of External Flooding Events for the RISMC Pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prescott, Steven; Mandelli, Diego; Sampath, Ramprasad; Smith, Curtis; Lin, Linyu

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating 3D simulations as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMIC) Toolkit allows analysts to obtain a more complete picture of complex system behavior for events including external plant hazards. External events such as flooding have become more important recently – however these can be analyzed with existing and validated simulated physics toolkits. In this report, we describe these approaches specific to flooding-based analysis using an approach called Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. The theory, validation, and example applications of the 3D flooding simulation are described. Integrating these 3D simulation methods into computational risk analysis provides a spatial/visual aspect to the design, improves the realism of results, and can prove visual understanding to validate the analysis of flooding.

  14. 3D Simulation of External Flooding Events for the RISMC Pathway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lin, Linyu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Incorporating 3D simulations as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMIC) Toolkit allows analysts to obtain a more complete picture of complex system behavior for events including external plant hazards. External events such as flooding have become more important recently – however these can be analyzed with existing and validated simulated physics toolkits. In this report, we describe these approaches specific to flooding-based analysis using an approach called Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. The theory, validation, and example applications of the 3D flooding simulation are described. Integrating these 3D simulation methods into computational risk analysis provides a spatial/visual aspect to the design, improves the realism of results, and can prove visual understanding to validate the analysis of flooding.

  15. Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria Carmen; Marcos, Raul; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential relationship between flash flood events and convective precipitation in Catalonia, as well as any related trends. The paper starts with an overview of flash floods and their trends in the Mediterranean region, along with their associated factors, followed by the definition of, identification of, and trends in convective precipitation. After this introduction the paper focuses on the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, for which there is a long-term precipitation series (since 1928) of 1-min precipitation from the Fabra Observatory, as well as a shorter (1996-2011) but more extensive precipitation series (43 rain gauges) of 5-min precipitation. Both series have been used to characterise the degree of convective contribution to rainfall, introducing the β parameter as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period. Information about flood events was obtained from the INUNGAMA database (a flood database created by the GAMA team), with the aim of finding any potential links to convective precipitation. These flood data were gathered using information on damage where flood is treated as a multifactorial risk, and where any trend or anomaly might have been caused by one or more factors affecting hazard, vulnerability or exposure. Trend analysis has shown an increase in flash flood events. The fact that no trends were detected in terms of extreme values of precipitation on a daily scale, nor on the associated ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme index, could point to an increase in vulnerability, an increase in exposure, or changes in land use. However, the summer increase in convective precipitation was concentrated in less torrential events, which could partially explain this positive trend in flash flood events. The β parameter has been also used to characterise the type of flood event according to the features of the precipitation. The highest values

  16. Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Büchele

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.

  17. Hydraulic description of a flood event with optical remote sensors: a constructive constraint on modelling uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battiston, Stéphanie; Allenbach, Bernard

    2010-05-01

    The exceptional characteristics of the December 2003 Rhône flood event (particularly high water flows, extent of the affected area, important damages especially in the region of Arles) make it be considered as a reference flood episode of this French river and a very well-known event. During the crisis, the International Charter "Space and Major Disasters" was triggered by the French Civil Protection for the rapid mapping of the flooding using Earth Observation imagery in order to facilitate crisis operations. As a result, more than 60 satellite images covering the flood were acquired over a 10 days period following the peak flow. Using the opportunity provided by this incomparable data coverage, the French Ministry of the Environment ordered a study on the evaluation of remote sensing's potential benefits for flood management. One of the questions asked by the risk managers was: what type of flood information can be provided by the different remote sensing platforms? Elements of response were delivered mainly in the form of a comprehensive compilation of maps and illustrations, displaying the main hydraulic elements (static ones as well as dynamic ones), initially listed and requested by hydrologists (more precisely, by a regional engineering society specialised in hydraulics and hydrology and in charge of a field campaign during the event), observed on different optical images of the flood event having affected the plain between Tarascon (upstream) and Arles (downstream). It is seen that a careful mapping of all flood traces visible on remote sensing event imagery - apparent water, moisture traces, breaches, overflows, stream directions, impermeable boundaries … - delivers a valuable vision of the flood's occurrence combining accuracy and comprehensiveness. In fact, optical imagery offers a detailed vision of the event : moisture traces complete flood traces extent; the observation of draw-off directions through waterproof barriers reveals hydraulic

  18. Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.

    2014-12-01

    Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ

  19. Satellite images of the September 2013 flood event in Lyons, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Christopher J.; Friesen, Beverly A.; Wilds, Stanley; Noble, Suzanne; Warner, Harumi; Wilson, Earl M.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Special Applications Science Center (SASC) produced an image base map showing high-resolution remotely sensed data over Lyons, Colorado—a city that was severely affected by the flood event that occurred throughout much of the Colorado Front Range in September of 2013. The 0.5-meter WorldView-2 data products were created from imagery collected by DigitalGlobe on September 13 and September 24, 2013, during and following the flood event. The images shown on this map were created to support flood response efforts, specifically for use in determining damage assessment and mitigation decisions. The raw, unprocessed imagery were orthorectified and pan-sharpened to enhance mapping accuracy and spatial resolution, and reproduced onto a cartographic base map. These maps are intended to provide a snapshot representation of post-flood ground conditions, which may be useful to decisionmakers and the general public. The SASC also provided data processing and analysis support for other Colorado flood-affected areas by creating cartographic products, geo-corrected electro-optical and radar image mosaics, and GIS water cover files for use by the Colorado National Guard, the National Park Service, the U.S. Forest Service, and the flood response community. All products for this International Charter event were uploaded to the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) website (http://hdds.usgs.gov/hdds2/) for distribution.

  20. State-of-the-art for evaluating the potential impact of flooding on a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-01-01

    This report is a review of the state-of-the-art for evaluating the potential impact of flooding on a deep radioactive-waste repository, namely, for predicting the future occurrence of catastrophic flooding and for estimating the effect of such flooding on waste containment characteristics. Several detrimental effects are identified: flooding can increase groundwater seepage velocities through a repository within the framework of the existing hydrologic system and thus increase the rate of radioactive-waste leakage to the biosphere; flooding may alter repository hydrology by reversing flow gradients, relocating sources of groundwater recharge and discharge, or shortening seepage paths, thereby producing unpredictable leakage; saturation of a vadose-zone repository during flooding can increase groundwater seepage velocities by several orders of magnitude; and flooding can damage repository-media containment properties by inducing seismic or chemical instability or increasing fracture permeability in relatively shallow repository rock as a result of redistributing in-situ stresses. Short-term flooding frequency and magnitude can be predicted statistically by analyzing historical records of flooding. However, long-term flooding events that could damage a permanent repository cannot be predicted with confidence because the geologic record is neither unique nor sufficienly complete for statistical analysis. It is more important to identify parameters characterizing containment properties (such as permeability, groundwater gradient, and shortest seepage path length to the biosphere) that could be affected by future flooding, estimate the maximum magnitude of flooding that could occur within the life of the repository by examining the geologic record, and determine the impact such flooding could have on the parameter values

  1. A Review on Flood Events for Kelantan River Watershed in Malaysia for Last Decade (2001-2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminah Shakirah, J.; Sidek, L. M.; Hidayah, B.; Nazirul, M. Z.; Jajarmizadeh, M.; Ros, F. C.; Roseli, ZA

    2016-03-01

    Malaysia is located at tropical zone and high precipitation area that frequently hit by flood events when it is near monsoon season. This hydro hazard has been one of the main concerns for governmental and non-governmental sectors. High floods lead in financial damages and they are related with human’s life. Kelantan watershed is one of the challenging watersheds which mostly suffer from flood events and heavy rainfall events. Flood in Kelantan watershed is related with monetary misfortunes and lives. Clearly, flood have significant influence on various water sectors such water supply, agriculture, human health and ecosystems therefore study of this topic and presentation of available of any data and information can be a valuable baseline for upcoming research in vulnerable case studies. In this study, Kelantan watershed is selected because it is prone to flooding and urban areas classified as vulnerable districts. This overview is discussed on the last decade (2001-2010) floods events in Kelantan.

  2. Analysis of institutional mechanisms that support community response to impacts of floods in the middle-zambezi river basin, Zimbabwe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhonda, P.; Mabiza, C.; Makurira, H.; Kujinga, K.; Nhapi, I.; Goldin, J.; Mashauri, D. A.

    In recent years, the frequency of occurrence of floods has increased in Southern Africa. An increase in the frequency of extreme events is partly attributed to climate change. Floods negatively impact on livelihoods, especially those classified as poor, mainly by reducing livelihood options and also contributing to reduced crop yields. In response to these climatic events, governments within Southern Africa have formulated policies which try to mitigate the impacts of floods. Floods can be deadly, often occurring at short notice, lasting for short periods, and causing widespread damage to infrastructure. This study analysed institutional mechanisms in Mbire District of Zimbabwe which aim at mitigating the impact of floods. The study used both quantitative (i.e. questionnaires) and qualitative (i.e. key informant interviews, focus group discussions and observations) data collection methods. Secondary data such as policy and legislation documents and operational manuals of organisations that support communities affected by disasters were reviewed. Qualitative data was analysed using the thematic approach and social network analysis using UCINET 6. Quantitative data were analysed using SPSS 19.0. The study found out that there exists institutional framework that has been developed at the national and local level to support communities in the study area in response to the impacts of floods. This is supported by various pieces of legislation that are housed in different government departments. However, the existing institutional framework does not effectively strengthen disaster management mechanisms at the local level. Lack of financial resources and appropriate training and skills to undertake flood management activities reduce the capacity of communities and disaster management organisations to effectively mitigate the impacts of floods. The study also found that there are inadequate hydro-meteorological stations to enable accurate forecasts. Even in those cases

  3. Reconstructing the 2015 Flash Flood event of Salgar Colombia, The Case of a Poor Gauged Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasquez, N.; Zapata, E.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Velez, J. I.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods events associated with severe precipitation events are highly destructive, often resulting in significant human and economic losses. Due to their nature, flash floods trend to occur in medium to small basins located within complex high mountainous regions. In the Colombian Andean region these basins are very common, with the aggravating factor that the vulnerability is considerably high as some important human settlements are located within these basins, frequently occupating flood plains and other flash-flood prone areas. During the dawn of May 18 of 2015 two severe rainfall events generated a flash flood event in the municipality ofSalgar, La Liboriana basin, locatedin the northwestern Colombian Andes, resulting in more than 100 human casualties and significant economic losses. The present work is a reconstruction of the hydrological processes that took place before and during the Liboriana flash flood event, analyzed as a case of poorly gauged basin.The event conditions where recreated based on radar retrievals and a hydrological distributed model, linked with a proposed 1D hydraulic model and simple shallow landslide model. Results suggest that the flash flood event was caused by the occurrence of two successive severe convective events over the same basin, with an important modulation associated with soil characteristics and water storage.Despite of its simplicity, the proposed hydraulic model achieves a good representation of the flooded area during the event, with limitations due to the adopted spatial scale (12.7 meters, from ALOS PALSAR images). Observed landslides were obtained from satellite images; for this case the model simulates skillfully the landslide occurrence regions with small differences in the exact locations.To understand this case, radar data shows to be key due to specific convective cores location and rainfall intensity estimation.In mountainous regions, there exists a significant number of settlements with similar

  4. Sub-seasonal Predictability of Heavy Precipitation Events: Implication for Real-time Flood Management in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, H.; Shahbazi, A.; Zohrabi, N.; Robertson, A. W.; Mofidi, A.; Massah Bavani, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    Each year, a number of high impact weather events occur worldwide. Since any level of predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale is highly beneficial to society, international efforts is now on progress to promote reliable Ensemble Prediction Systems for monthly forecasts within the WWRP/WCRP initiative (S2S) project and North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME). For water resources managers in the face of extreme events, not only can reliable forecasts of high impact weather events prevent catastrophic losses caused by floods but also contribute to benefits gained from hydropower generation and water markets. The aim of this paper is to analyze the predictability of recent severe weather events over Iran. Two recent heavy precipitations are considered as an illustration to examine whether S2S forecasts can be used for developing flood alert systems especially where large cascade of dams are in operation. Both events have caused major damages to cities and infrastructures. The first severe precipitation was is in the early November 2015 when heavy precipitation (more than 50 mm) occurred in 2 days. More recently, up to 300 mm of precipitation is observed within less than a week in April 2016 causing a consequent flash flood. Over some stations, the observed precipitation was even more than the total annual mean precipitation. To analyze the predictive capability, ensemble forecasts from several operational centers including (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system, Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and Chinese Meteorological Center (CMA) are evaluated. It has been observed that significant changes in precipitation anomalies were likely to be predicted days in advance. The next step will be to conduct thorough analysis based on comparing multi-model outputs over the full hindcast dataset developing real-time high impact weather prediction systems.

  5. Flood impacts in Keppel Bay, southern great barrier reef in the aftermath of cyclonic rainfall.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison M Jones

    Full Text Available In December 2010, the highest recorded Queensland rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone 'Tasha' caused flooding of the Fitzroy River in Queensland, Australia. A massive flood plume inundated coral reefs lying 12 km offshore of the Central Queensland coast near Yeppoon and caused 40-100% mortality to coral fringing many of the islands of Keppel Bay down to a depth of ∼8 m. The severity of coral mortality was influenced by the level of exposure to low salinity seawater as a result of the reef's distance from the flood plume and to a lesser extent, water depth and whether or not the reef faced the plume source. There was no evidence in this study of mortality resulting from pollutants derived from the nearby Fitzroy Catchment, at least in the short term, suggesting that during a major flood, the impact of low salinity on corals outweighs that of pollutants. Recovery of the reefs in Keppel Bay from the 2010/2011 Fitzroy River flood is likely to take 10-15 years based on historical recovery periods from a similar event in 1991; potentially impacting visitor numbers for tourism and recreational usage. In the meantime, activities like snorkeling, diving and coral viewing will be focused on the few shallow reefs that survived the flood, placing even further pressure on their recovery. Reef regeneration, restoration and rehabilitation are measures that may be needed to support tourism in the short term. However, predictions of a warming climate, lower rainfall and higher intensity summer rain events in the Central and Coastal regions of Australia over the next decade, combined with the current anthropogenic influences on water quality, are likely to slow regeneration with consequent impact on long-term reef resilience.

  6. Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods are common in the United States. Weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, hurricanes, or tsunamis can ... is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often have a dangerous ...

  7. Impact of the new Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction on Paris flood prevention program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thepot Regis

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The greater Paris region faces a significant risk of flooding due to potential spill-over from the Seine and the Marne. Because the last major flood occurred in 1910, the event has faded in the collective memory. Consequently, the population and the public authorities have difficulty imagining that such a catastrophe might repeat itself. In parallel, widespread urban expansion into flood zones has considerably aggravated the foreseeable damage if an event of a comparable intensity were to hit the region.In response to this situation, the EPTB Seine Grands Lacs – a public territorial basin establishment– decided to take action to reduce this risk.It began by commissioning a study from the OECD on flood risk prevention in the Seine Basin. This study was presented in January 2014 and highlighted the considerable risk of flooding in or near Paris, which could, affect a total of nearly 5 million people, cause up to €30 billion in direct damage and affect up to 400.000 jobs. It also put forward 14 recommendations that are being implemented by the public authorities, at either the national, basin or local level.The EPTB launched in partnership with the government a second initiative for which it steers and coordinates a coherent, balanced, relevant and gradual programme of 78 flood prevention actions. As a new post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction was adopted in Sendai in March 2015 taking in account lessons learned during the 2005-2015 period, gaps identified and future challenges, this paper addresses the question of the impact of this new international framework on the implementation of the flood prevention of Paris region. One of the main points developed is the necessity to increase public awareness, to enhance disaster preparedness for effective response and to “build back better” in recovery rehabilitation and reconstruction.

  8. Spatiotemporal hazard mapping of a flood event "migration" in a transboundary river basin as an operational tool in flood risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrou, Theodora; Papastergios, Asterios; Parcharidis, Issaak; Chini, Marco

    2017-10-01

    Flood disaster is one of the heaviest disasters in the world. It is necessary to monitor and evaluate the flood disaster in order to mitigate the consequences. As floods do not recognize borders, transboundary flood risk management is imperative in shared river basins. Disaster management is highly dependent on early information and requires data from the whole river basin. Based on the hypothesis that the flood events over the same area with same magnitude have almost identical evolution, it is crucial to develop a repository database of historical flood events. This tool, in the case of extended transboundary river basins, could constitute an operational warning system for the downstream area. The utility of SAR images for flood mapping, was demonstrated by previous studies but the SAR systems in orbit were not characterized by high operational capacity. Copernicus system will fill this gap in operational service for risk management, especially during emergency phase. The operational capabilities have been significantly improved by newly available satellite constellation, such as the Sentinel-1A AB mission, which is able to provide systematic acquisitions with a very high temporal resolution in a wide swath coverage. The present study deals with the monitoring of a transboundary flood event in Evros basin. The objective of the study is to create the "migration story" of the flooded areas on the basis of the evolution in time for the event occurred from October 2014 till May 2015. Flood hazard maps will be created, using SAR-based semi-automatic algorithms and then through the synthesis of the related maps in a GIS-system, a spatiotemporal thematic map of the event will be produced. The thematic map combined with TanDEM-X DEM, 12m/pixel spatial resolution, will define the non- affected areas which is a very useful information for the emergency planning and emergency response phases. The Sentinels meet the main requirements to be an effective and suitable

  9. Assessment of Flood Disaster Impacts in Cambodia: Implications for Rapid Disaster Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, Colin

    2016-04-01

    Disaster monitoring systems can provide near real time estimates of population and infrastructure affected by sudden onset natural hazards. This information is useful to decision makers allocating lifesaving resources following disaster events. Floods are the world's most common and devastating disasters (UN, 2004; Doocy et al., 2013), and are particularly frequent and severe in the developing countries of Southeast Asia (Long and Trong, 2001; Jonkman, 2005; Kahn, 2005; Stromberg, 2007; Kirsch et al., 2012). Climate change, a strong regional monsoon, and widespread hydropower construction contribute to a complex and unpredictable regional hydrodynamic regime. As such, there is a critical need for novel techniques to assess flood impacts to population and infrastructure with haste during and following flood events in order to enable governments and agencies to optimize response efforts following disasters. Here, we build on methods to determine regional flood extent in near real time and develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts of flooding in Cambodia. Software developed on cloud based, distributed processing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is used to demonstrate spatial and numerical estimates of population, households, roadways, schools, hospitals, airports, agriculture and fish catch affected by severe monsoon flooding occurring in the Cambodian portion of Lower Mekong River Basin in 2011. Results show modest agreement with government and agency estimates. Maps and statistics generated from the system are intended to complement on the ground efforts and bridge information gaps to decision makers. The system is open source, flexible, and can be applied to other disasters (e.g. earthquakes, droughts, landslides) in various geographic regions.

  10. A Basis Function Approach to Simulate Storm Surge Events for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Storm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions, especially when it coincides with other flood producing mechanisms, such as extreme rainfall. Therefore, storm surge has always been a research focus in coastal flood risk assessment. Often numerical models have been developed to understand storm surge events for risk assessment (Kumagai et al. 2016; Li et al. 2016; Zhang et al. 2016) (Bastidas et al. 2016; Bilskie et al. 2016; Dalledonne and Mayerle 2016; Haigh et al. 2014; Kodaira et al. 2016; Lapetina and Sheng 2015), and assess how these events may change or evolve in the future (Izuru et al. 2015; Oey and Chou 2016). However, numeric models often require a lot of input information and difficulties arise when there are not sufficient data available (Madsen et al. 2015). Alternative, statistical methods have been used to forecast storm surge based on historical data (Hashemi et al. 2016; Kim et al. 2016) or to examine the long term trend in the change of storm surge events, especially under climate change (Balaguru et al. 2016; Oh et al. 2016; Rueda et al. 2016). In these studies, often the peak of surge events is used, which result in the loss of dynamic information within a tidal cycle or surge event (i.e. a time series of storm surge values). In this study, we propose an alternative basis function (BF) based approach to examine the different attributes (e.g. peak and durations) of storm surge events using historical data. Two simple two-parameter BFs were used: the exponential function and the triangular function. High quality hourly storm surge record from 15 tide gauges around Australia were examined. It was found that there are significantly location and seasonal variability in the peak and duration of storm surge events, which provides additional insights in coastal flood risk. In addition, the simple form of these BFs allows fast simulation of storm surge events and minimises the complexity of joint probability

  11. Toward a coupled Hazard-Vulnerability Tool for Flash Flood Impacts Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terti, Galateia; Ruin, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Gourley, Jonathan J.

    2015-04-01

    Flash floods (FF) are high-impact, catastrophic events that result from the intersection of hydrometeorological extremes and society at small space-time scales, generally on the order of minutes to hours. Because FF events are generally localized in space and time, they are very difficult to forecast with precision and can subsequently leave people uninformed and subject to surprise in the midst of their daily activities (e.g., commuting to work). In Europe, FFs are the main source of natural hazard fatalities, although they affect smaller areas than riverine flooding. In the US, also, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths most years, with some 200 annual fatalities. There were 954 fatalities and approximately 31 billion U.S. dollars of property damage due to floods and flash floods from 1995 to 2012 in the US. For forecasters and emergency managers the prediction of and subsequent response to impacts due to such a sudden onset and localized event remains a challenge. This research is motivated by the hypothesis that the intersection of the spatio-temporal context of the hazard with the distribution of people and their characteristics across space and time reveals different paths of vulnerability. We argue that vulnerability and the dominant impact type varies dynamically throughout the day and week according to the location under concern. Thus, indices are appropriate to develop and provide, for example, vehicle-related impacts on active population being focused on the road network during morning or evening rush hours. This study describes the methodological developments of our approach and applies our hypothesis to the case of the June 14th, 2010 flash flood event in the Oklahoma City area (Oklahoma, US). Social (i.e. population socio-economic profile), exposure (i.e. population distribution, land use), and physical (i.e. built and natural environment) data are used to compose different vulnerability products based on the forecast location

  12. Decision support system emergency planning, creating evacuation strategies in the event of flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Windhouwer, C.J.; Klunder, G.A.; Sanders, F.M.

    2005-01-01

    The Decision Support System (DSS) Emergency Planning is designed for use in the event of sea or river flooding. It makes accessible all the information related to the decision whether to evacuate an area. An important factor in this decision is the time required for the evacuation. The model used by

  13. Forest operations, extreme flooding events, and considerations for hydrologic modeling in the Appalachians--A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.A. Eisenbies; W.M. Aust; J.A. Burger; M.B. Adams

    2007-01-01

    The connection between forests and water resources is well established, but the relationships among controlling factors are only partly understood. Concern over the effects of forestry operations, particularly harvesting, on extreme flooding events is a recurrent issue in forest and watershed management. Due to the complexity of the system, and the cost of installing...

  14. Rapid formation of a modern bedrock canyon by a single flood event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Michael P.; Fonstad, Mark A.

    2010-07-01

    Deep river canyons are thought to form slowly over geological time (see, for example, ref. 1), cut by moderate flows that reoccur every few years. In contrast, some of the most spectacular canyons on Earth and Mars were probably carved rapidly during ancient megaflood events. Quantification of the flood discharge, duration and erosion mechanics that operated during such events is hampered because we lack modern analogues. Canyon Lake Gorge, Texas, was carved in 2002 during a single catastrophic flood. The event offers a rare opportunity to analyse canyon formation and test palaeo-hydraulic-reconstruction techniques under known topographic and hydraulic conditions. Here we use digital topographic models and visible/near-infrared aerial images from before and after the flood, discharge measured during the event, field measurements and sediment-transport modelling to show that the flood moved metre-sized boulders, excavated ~7m of limestone and transformed a soil-mantled valley into a bedrock canyon in just ~3days. We find that canyon morphology is strongly dependent on rock type: plucking of limestone blocks produced waterfalls, inner channels and bedrock strath terraces, whereas abrasion of cemented alluvium sculpted walls, plunge pools and streamlined islands. Canyon formation was so rapid that erosion might have been limited by the ability of the flow to transport sediment. We suggest that our results might improve hydraulic reconstructions of similar megafloods on Earth and Mars.

  15. Spatial analysis of landfills in respect to flood events and sea-level rise using ArcGIS Pro

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Benjamin S; Fei, Songlin

    2017-01-01

    "Recently in the news, media coverage of flood events has garnered attention due to tropical storms like Hurricane Harvey and the costly damages that resulted. Under climate change, events like sea-level rise (SLR) and flooding are projected to increase which threaten infrastructure, making it necessary for proper planning before, during, and after installation of landfills to mitigate risk. Studies in Austria and the UK have revealed that many landfills are located in flood zones in addition...

  16. Coupled prediction of flash flood response and debris flow occurrence: Application on an alpine extreme flood event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destro, Elisa; Amponsah, William; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Marchi, Lorenzo; Marra, Francesco; Zoccatelli, Davide; Borga, Marco

    2018-03-01

    The concurrence of flash floods and debris flows is of particular concern, because it may amplify the hazard corresponding to the individual generative processes. This paper presents a coupled modelling framework for the predictions of flash flood response and of the occurrence of debris flows initiated by channel bed mobilization. The framework combines a spatially distributed flash flood response model and a debris flow initiation model to define a threshold value for the peak flow which permits identification of channelized debris flow initiation. The threshold is defined over the channel network as a function of the upslope area and of the local channel bed slope, and it is based on assumptions concerning the properties of the channel bed material and of the morphology of the channel network. The model is validated using data from an extreme rainstorm that impacted the 140 km2 Vizze basin in the Eastern Italian Alps on August 4-5, 2012. The results show that the proposed methodology has improved skill in identifying the catchments where debris-flows are triggered, compared to the use of simpler thresholds based on rainfall properties.

  17. Psychosocial impact of the summer 2007 floods in England

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The summer of 2007 was the wettest in the UK since records began in 1914 and resulted in severe flooding in several regions. We carried out a health impact assessment using population-based surveys to assess the prevalence of and risk factors for the psychosocial consequences of this flooding in the United Kingdom. Methods Surveys were conducted in two regions using postal, online, telephone questionnaires and face-to-face interviews. Exposure variables included the presence of flood water in the home, evacuation and disruption to essential services (incident management variables), perceived impact of the floods on finances, house values and perceived health concerns. Validated tools were used to assess psychosocial outcome (mental health symptoms): psychological distress (GHQ-12), anxiety (GAD-7), depression (PHQ-9) and probable post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD checklist-shortform). Multivariable logistic regression was used to describe the association between water level in the home, psychological exposure variables and incident management variables, and each mental health symptom, adjusted for age, sex, presence of an existing medical condition, employment status, area and data collection method. Results The prevalence of all mental health symptoms was two to five-fold higher among individuals affected by flood water in the home. People who perceived negative impact on finances were more likely to report psychological distress (OR 2.5, 1.8-3.4), probable anxiety (OR 1.8, 1.3-2.7) probable depression (OR 2.0, 1.3-2.9) and probable PTSD (OR 3.2, 2.0-5.2). Disruption to essential services increased adverse psychological outcomes by two to three-fold. Evacuation was associated with some increase in psychological distress but not significantly for the other three measures. Conclusion The psychosocial and mental health impact of flooding is a growing public health concern and improved strategies for minimising disruption to essential services and

  18. Rainfall estimation in the context of post-event flash flood analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delrieu, Guy; Boudevillain, Brice; Bouilloud, Ludovic

    2010-05-01

    Due to their spatial coverage and space-time resolution, operational weather radar networks offer unprecedented opportunities for the observation of flash flood generating storms. However, the radar rainfall estimation quality highly depends on the relative locations of the event and the radar(s). A mountainous environment obviously adds to the complexity of the radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). A pragmatic methodology was developed within the EC-funded HYDRATE project to take the best benefit of the existing rainfall observations (radar and raingauge data) for given flash-flood cases: 1) A precise documentation of the radar characteristics (location, parameters, operating protocol, data archives and processing) needs first to be established. The radar(s) detection domain(s) can then be characterized using the "hydrologic visibility" concepts (Pellarin et al. J Hydrometeor 3(5) 539-555 2002). 2) Rather dense raingauge observations (operational, amateur) are usually available at the event time scale while few raingauge time series exist at the hydrologic time steps. Such raingauge datasets need to be critically analysed; a geostatistical approach is proposed for this task. 3) A number of identifications can be implemented prior to the radar data re-processing: a) Special care needs to be paid to (residual) ground clutter which has a dramatic impact of radar QPE. Dry-weather maps and rainfall accumulation maps may help in this task. b) Various sources of power losses such as screening, wet radome, attenuation in rain need to be identified and quantified. It will be shown that mountain returns can be used to quantify attenuation effects at C-band. c) Radar volume data is required to characterize the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR), eventually conditioned on rain type (convective, widespread). When such data is not available, knowledge of the 0°C isotherm and the scanning protocol may help detecting bright-band contaminations that critically

  19. Morphological records of storm floods exemplified by the impact of the 1872 Baltic storm on a sandy spit system in south-eastern Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Lars B; Bendixen, Mette; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt

    2014-01-01

    Beach-ridge systems are important geo-archives providing evidence for past wave climate including catastrophic storm flood events. This study investigates the morphological impacts of the 1872 Baltic storm flood on a beach-ridge system (sandy spit) in south-eastern Denmark and evaluates the frequ...

  20. Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

  1. A prospective study of the impact of floods on the mental and physical health of older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bei, Bei; Bryant, Christina; Gilson, Kim-Michelle; Koh, Juliana; Gibson, Penelope; Komiti, Angela; Jackson, Henry; Judd, Fiona

    2013-01-01

    With a longitudinal prospective design, we examined the impact of floods on the mental and physical health of older adults and explored risk and protective factors. Two hundred and seventy four older adults (age ≥60) completed surveys before and after a flood event. Both the surveys included measures of anxiety, depression, self-reported health, and satisfaction with life; the post-flood survey also included questionnaires on flood experience, symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), stoicism, and psychological coping with floods. Compared to those not personally affected (78.8%), personally affected individuals (21.2%) reported significantly higher PTSD symptoms, with about one in six reporting PTSD symptoms that might require clinical attention. Personally affected individuals also reported a greater increase in anxiety post-flood, but changes in their depressive symptoms and self-reported health were not significantly different from those not personally affected. Greater flood exposure and the lack of social support were the risk factors for poorer mental and physical health. Higher stoicism was associated with higher post-flood depression and poorer self-reported mental health. The use of maladaptive coping, such as venting and distraction, was associated with greater deterioration in mental health after floods, whilst emotion-focused coping such as acceptance, positive reframing, and humour, was protective against such deterioration. Floods had adverse psychological impacts on some older adults who were personally affected. Despite the evidence of resilience, a small proportion of older adults experienced significant difficulties after the floods. The findings in this study help understand older adults' psychological responses to disasters and have practical implications for service planning and delivery.

  2. Lightning activity, rainfall and flash flooding – occasional or interrelated events? A case study in the island of Crete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Koutroulis

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The majority of cyclones passing over Crete in late autumn to early winter originate from southwest, west and northwest and are of varying size and intensity. A number of these cyclones cause flash floods. The present study reports the possible relationships between lighting activity and high precipitation related to flash flood events. In this study an attempt was made to correlate the lightning number and location, recorded by the ZEUS lightning detection system, with the rainfall characteristics for sixteen rain events (4 flood and 12 non-flood events on the island of Crete, during the period 2008–2009. Spatiotemporal analysis of rain and rain rate with flash count was performed with respect to distance (radius of flashes from raingauge location at various temporal scales, in order to examine the correlation of accumulated rainfall and lightning activity. The maximum attained statistical significant correlation was obtained within a circular area of an average radius of 15 km around the raingauge, and an average time lag of flash count prior precipitation accumulation of 15 min. The maximum correlation between the lightning and rainfall data is obtained for shorter time lags for the flood events (15 min than the non-flood events (25 min, that could reflect the faster propagation of flood triggering storms due to high convective activity. Results show increased lightning activity occurring during flood triggering storms, by an average of four times higher. Furthermore, there is evidence that the number of flashes that occur during a precipitation event is related to precipitation depth when the latter is adequate to produce a flood event. Differences between flood and non-flood producing storms need to be further assessed by analyzing more independent parameters, including the synoptic conditions and dominant flash flood hydrological generating processes.

  3. Impacts of repetitive floods and satisfaction with flood relief efforts: A case study of the flood-prone districts in Thailand’s Ayutthaya province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nawhath Thanvisitthpon

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This research investigates the impacts of the repetitive flooding on the inhabitants of the four flood-prone districts in Thailand’s central province of Ayutthaya: Pranakorn Si Ayutthaya, Sena, Bang Ban, and Pak Hai. In addition, the residents’ satisfaction levels with the flood relief efforts and operations of the local authorities were examined and analyzed. The research revealed that most local residents have adapted to co-exist with the repetitive floods, an example of which is the elevation of the houses a few meters above the ground where the living quarter is on the upper level. The findings also indicated that the repetitive flooding incurred substantial post-flood repair costs, in light of the low income-earning capabilities of the locals. However, the flood-recovery financial aids was incommensurate with the actual expenditures, contributing to the lowest average satisfaction score among the inhabitants with regard to the adequacy of the post-flood repair and restoration financial aid. Furthermore, the research identified the differences between districts on the satisfaction with the flood relief efforts. The disparity could be attributed to the extent of coordination and participation of the local residents and their local leaders in the flood-related measures.

  4. Telling and measuring urban floods: event reconstruction by means of public-domain media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macchia, S.; Gallo, E.; Claps, P.

    2012-04-01

    In the last decade, the diffusion of mobile telephones and ond of low-cost digital cameras have changed the public approach to catastrophes. As regards floods, it has become widespread the availability of images and videos taken in urban areas. Searching into Youtube or Youreporter, for example, one can understand how often citizen are considering to report even scary events. Nowadays these amateurs videos are often used in news world reports, which often increase or dampen the public perception of flood risk. More importantly, these amateur videos can play a crucial role in a didactic and technical representation of media flooding problems. The question so arise: why don't use the amateur videos for civil protection purposes? This work shows a new way to use flood images and videos to obtain technical data and spread safety information. Specifically, we show how to determine the height and speed of water flow, which have been achieved in some places during Genoa flood - 4th November 2011 - For this event we have downloaded more than 50 videos from different websites, where the authors have provided information about the time of recording, the geographical coordinates and the height above ground of the point of recording. The support by Google tools, such as Google maps and StreetWiew © has allowed us to geographically locate the recording points, so to put together shots and slides necessary to put together a whole reconstruction of the event. Future research will be in the direction of using these videos to generate a tool for the Google platforms, in order to address an easily achievable, yet accurate, information to the public, so to warn people on how to behave in front of imminent floods.

  5. Nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of flood events in Portuguese watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Silva

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available An exploratory analysis on the variability of flood occurrence rates in 10 Portuguese watersheds is made, to ascertain if that variability is concurrent with the principle of stationarity. A peaks-over-threshold (POT sampling technique is applied to 10 long series of mean daily streamflows and to 4 long series of daily rainfall in order to sample the times of occurrence (POT time data of the peak values of those series. The kernel occurrence rate estimator, coupled with a bootstrap approach, was applied to the POT time data to obtain the time dependent estimated occurrence rate curves, λˆ(t, of floods and extreme rainfall events. The results of the analysis show that the occurrence of those events constitutes an inhomogeneous Poisson process, hence the occurrence rates are nonstationary. An attempt was made to assess whether the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO casted any influence on the occurrence rate of floods in the study area. Although further research is warranted, it was found that years with a less-than-average occurrence of floods tend to occur when the winter NAO is in the positive phase, and years with a higher occurrence of floods (more than twice the average tend to occur when the winter NAO is in the negative phase. Although the number of analyzed watersheds and their uneven spatial distribution hinders the generalization of the findings to the country scale, the authors conclude that the mathematical formulation of the flood frequency models relying on stationarity commonly employed in Portugal should be revised in order to account for possible nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of such events.

  6. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  7. Adaptation to flood risk: Results of international paired flood event studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

    2017-01-01

    studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful...

  8. Predicting extreme rainfall events over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Impact of data assimilation with conventional and satellite observations

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Srinivas, C.V.; Langodan, Sabique; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    The impact of variational data assimilation for predicting two heavy rainfall events that caused devastating floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 25 November 2009 and 26 January 2011

  9. National water summary 1988-89: Hydrologic events and floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulson, Richard W.; Chase, Edith B.; Roberts, Robert S.; Moody, David W.

    1991-01-01

    National Water Summary 1988-89 - Hydrologic Events and Floods and Droughts documents the occurrence in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands of two types of extreme hydrologic events floods and droughts on the basis of analysis of stream-discharge data. This report details, for the first time, the areal extent of the most notable floods and droughts in each State, portrays their severity in terms of annual peak discharge for floods and annual departure from long-term discharge for droughts for selected stream-gaging stations, and estimates how frequently floods and droughts of such severity can be expected to recur. These two types of extreme hydrologic events are very different in their duration, cause, areal extent, and effect on human activities. Floods are short-term phenomena that typically last only a few hours to a few days and are associated with weather systems that produce unusually large amounts of rain or that cause snow to melt quickly. The large amount of runoff produced causes rivers to overflow their banks and, thus, is highly dangerous to human life and property. In contrast, droughts are long-term phenomena that typically persist for months to a decade or more and are associated with the absence of precipitation producing weather. They affect large geographic areas that can be statewide, regional, or even nationwide in extent. Droughts can cause great economic hardship and even loss of life in developing countries, although the loss of life results almost wholly from diminished water supplies and catastrophic crop failures rather than from the direct and obvious peril to human life that is common to floods. The following discussion is an overview of the three parts of this 1988-89 National Water Summary "Hydrologic Conditions and Water-Related Events, Water Years 1988-89," "Hydrologic Perspectives on Water Issues," and "State Summaries of Floods and Droughts." Background information on sources of atmospheric moisture to the

  10. Projected large flood event sensitivity to projection selection and temporal downscaling methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raff, D. [U.S. Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colorado (United States)

    2008-07-01

    Large flood events, that influence regulatory guidelines as well as safety of dams decisions, are likely to be affected by climate change. This talk will evaluate the use of climate projections downscaled and run through a rainfall - runoff model and its influence on large flood events. The climate spatial downscaling is performed statistically and a re-sampling and scaling methodology is used to temporally downscale from monthly to daily signals. The signals are run through a National Weather Service operational rainfall-runoff model to produce 6-hour flows. The flows will be evaluated for changes in large events at look-ahead horizons from 2011 - 2040, 2041 - 2070, and 2071 - 2099. The sensitivity of results will be evaluated with respect to projection selection criteria and re-sampling and scaling criteria for the Boise River in Idaho near Lucky Peak Dam. (author)

  11. Projected large flood event sensitivity to projection selection and temporal downscaling methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raff, D.

    2008-01-01

    Large flood events, that influence regulatory guidelines as well as safety of dams decisions, are likely to be affected by climate change. This talk will evaluate the use of climate projections downscaled and run through a rainfall - runoff model and its influence on large flood events. The climate spatial downscaling is performed statistically and a re-sampling and scaling methodology is used to temporally downscale from monthly to daily signals. The signals are run through a National Weather Service operational rainfall-runoff model to produce 6-hour flows. The flows will be evaluated for changes in large events at look-ahead horizons from 2011 - 2040, 2041 - 2070, and 2071 - 2099. The sensitivity of results will be evaluated with respect to projection selection criteria and re-sampling and scaling criteria for the Boise River in Idaho near Lucky Peak Dam. (author)

  12. Seepage patterns of Diuron in a ditch bed during a sequence of flood events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dages, C.; Samouëlian, A.; Negro, S.; Storck, V.; Huttel, O.; Voltz, M.

    2015-01-01

    Although ditches limit surface water contamination, groundwater recharge through ditches in Mediterranean catchments may result in groundwater contamination. We analysed the dynamics of pesticide percolation in ditches by conducting an original lab experiment that mimicked the successive percolation processes that occur during a flood season. Nine successive percolation events were operated on an undisturbed soil column collected from a ditch bed. The infiltrating water was doped with 14 C-Diuron at concentrations that were chosen to decrease between the events so as to correspond to values observed during actual flood events. The water and solute fluxes were monitored during each event, and the final extractable and non-extractable Diuron residues in the column were determined. Two main observations were made. First, a high leaching potential was observed through the ditch bed over a succession of infiltrating flood events, with 58.9% of the infiltrated Diuron and its metabolites leaching. Second, compared with the contamination of surface water circulating in the ditches, the contamination of seepage water exhibited smaller peak values and persisted much longer because of the desorption of Diuron residues stored in the ditch bed. Thus, ditches serve as buffering zones between surface and groundwater. However, compared with field plots, ditches appear to be a preferential location for the percolation of pesticides into groundwater at the catchment scale. - Highlights: • Diuron percolation in a ditch bed during flood events was mimicked in a column setup. • Diuron percolation can represent up to 50% of the infiltrated Diuron. • The ditch bed exhibits a high buffering capacity due to its high sorption properties. • Contamination period of percolation water lasts longer than that of infiltrating water. • Diuron residues stored in ditch bed move deeper than in field topsoils.

  13. Seepage patterns of Diuron in a ditch bed during a sequence of flood events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dages, C., E-mail: cecile.dages@supagro.inra.fr; Samouëlian, A.; Negro, S.; Storck, V.; Huttel, O.; Voltz, M.

    2015-12-15

    Although ditches limit surface water contamination, groundwater recharge through ditches in Mediterranean catchments may result in groundwater contamination. We analysed the dynamics of pesticide percolation in ditches by conducting an original lab experiment that mimicked the successive percolation processes that occur during a flood season. Nine successive percolation events were operated on an undisturbed soil column collected from a ditch bed. The infiltrating water was doped with {sup 14}C-Diuron at concentrations that were chosen to decrease between the events so as to correspond to values observed during actual flood events. The water and solute fluxes were monitored during each event, and the final extractable and non-extractable Diuron residues in the column were determined. Two main observations were made. First, a high leaching potential was observed through the ditch bed over a succession of infiltrating flood events, with 58.9% of the infiltrated Diuron and its metabolites leaching. Second, compared with the contamination of surface water circulating in the ditches, the contamination of seepage water exhibited smaller peak values and persisted much longer because of the desorption of Diuron residues stored in the ditch bed. Thus, ditches serve as buffering zones between surface and groundwater. However, compared with field plots, ditches appear to be a preferential location for the percolation of pesticides into groundwater at the catchment scale. - Highlights: • Diuron percolation in a ditch bed during flood events was mimicked in a column setup. • Diuron percolation can represent up to 50% of the infiltrated Diuron. • The ditch bed exhibits a high buffering capacity due to its high sorption properties. • Contamination period of percolation water lasts longer than that of infiltrating water. • Diuron residues stored in ditch bed move deeper than in field topsoils.

  14. Societal impacts and vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh and Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Tanvir H. Dewan

    2015-01-01

    Bangladesh and Nepal lie between the Himalayas and low-lying coasts of the Bay of Bengal and are traversed by hundreds of rivers and tributaries. Historical data shows that, since 1970, the scale, intensity and duration of floods have increased in Bangladesh and Nepal, causing grave human suffering; disruptions in normal life and activity, damages of infrastructure, crops and agricultural land with severe impacts on the economy. Bangladesh is affected by torrential rain, glacier melt, upstrea...

  15. External flooding event analysis in a PWR-W with MAAP5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez-Cosials, Mikel Kevin; Jimenez, Gonzalo; Barreira, Pilar; Queral, Cesar

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • External flooding preceded by a SCRAM is simulated with MAAP5.01. • Sensitivities include AFW-TDP, SLOCA and operator preventive actions. • SLOCA flow is the dominant factor in the sequences. • Vessel failure is avoidable with operator preventive actions. - Abstract: The Fukushima accident has drawn attention even more to the importance of external events and loss of energy supply on safety analysis. Since 2011, several Station Blackout (SBO) analyses have been done for all type of reactors. The most post-Fukushima studies analyze a pure and straight SBO transient, but the Fukushima accident was more complex than a standard SBO. At Fukushima accident, the SBO was a consequence of an external flooding from the tsunami and occurred 40 min after an emergency shutdown (SCRAM) caused by the earthquake. The first objective of this paper is to assume the consequences of an external flooding accident in a PWR site caused by a river flood, a dam break or a tsunami, where all the plant is damaged, not only the diesel generators. The second objective is to analyze possible actions to be performed in the time between the earthquake event (that causes a SCRAM) and the external flooding arrival, which could be applicable to accidents such as dam failures or river flooding in order to avoid more severe consequences, delay the core damage and improve the accident management. The results reveal how the actuation of the different systems and equipments affect the core damage time and how some actions could delay the core damage time enough to increase the possibility of AC power recovery

  16. Methodological Framework for Analysing Cascading Effects from Flood Events: The Case of Sukhumvit Area, Bangkok, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geofrey Hilly

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Impacts from floods in urban areas can be diverse and wide ranging. These can include the loss of human life, infrastructure and property damages, as well as other kinds of nuisance and inconvenience to urban life. Hence, the ability to identify and quantify wider ranging effects from floods is of the utmost importance to urban flood managers and infrastructure operators. The present work provides a contribution in this direction and describes a methodological framework for analysing cascading effects from floods that has been applied for the Sukhumvit area in Bangkok (Thailand. It demonstrates that the effects from floods can be much broader in their reach and magnitude than the sole impacts incurred from direct and immediate losses. In Sukhumvit, these include loss of critical services, assets and goods, traffic congestion and delays in transportation, loss of business and income, disturbances and discomfort to the residents, and all these can be traced with the careful analysis of cascading effects. The present work explored the use of different visualization options to present the findings. These include a casual loop diagram, a HAZUR resilience map, a tree diagram and GIS maps.

  17. On the dynamics of synoptic scale cyclones associated with flood events in Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flocas, Helena; Katavoutas, George; Tsanis, Ioannis; Iordanidou, Vasiliki

    2015-04-01

    Flood events in the Mediterranean are frequently linked to synoptic scale cyclones, although topographical or anthropogenic factors can play important role. The knowledge of the vertical profile and dynamics of these cyclones can serve as a reliable early flood warning system that can further help in hazard mitigation and risk management planning. Crete is the second largest island in the eastern Mediterranean region, being characterized by high precipitation amounts during winter, frequently causing flood events. The objective of this study is to examine the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms at the upper and lower levels responsible for the generation of these events, according to their origin domain. The flooding events were recorded for a period of almost 20 years. The surface cyclones are identified with the aid of MS scheme that was appropriately modified and extensively employed in the Mediterranean region in previous studies. Then, the software VTS, specially developed for the Mediterranean cyclones, was employed to investigate the vertical extension, slope and dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the surface cyclones. Composite maps of dynamic/thermodynamic parameters, such as potential vorticity, temperature advection, divergence, surface fluxes were then constructed before and during the time of the flood. The dataset includes 6-hourly surface and isobaric analyses on a 0.5° x 0.5° regular latitude-longitude grid, as derived from the ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis of the ECMWF. It was found that cyclones associated with flood events in Crete mainly generate over northern Africa or southern eastern Mediterranean region and experience their minimum pressure over Crete or southwestern Greece. About 84% of the cyclones extend up to 500hPa, demonstrating that they are well vertically well-organized systems. The vast majority (almost 84%) of the surface cyclones attains their minimum pressure when their 500 hpa counterparts are located in the NW or SW, confirming

  18. Nonstationarity in the occurrence rate of floods in the Tarim River basin, China, and related impacts of climate indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Chen, Xi; Liu, Lin

    2016-07-01

    Amplification of floods in the Xinjiang, China, has been observed, but reports on their changing properties and underlying mechanisms are not available. In this study, occurrence rates of floods in the Tarim River basin, the largest inland arid river basin in China, were analyzed using the Kernel density estimation technique and bootstrap resampling method. Also analyzed were the occurrence rates of precipitation extremes using the POT (Peak over Threshold)-based sampling method. Both stationary and non-stationary models were developed using GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) to model flood frequency with time, climate index, precipitation and temperature as major predictors. Results indicated: (1) two periods with increasing occurrence of floods, i.e., the late 1960s and the late 1990s with considerable fluctuations around 2-3 flood events during time intervals between the late 1960s and the late 1990s; (2) changes in the occurrence rates of floods were subject to nonstationarity. A persistent increase of flood frequency and magnitude was observed during the 1990s and reached a peak value; (3) AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and AO (Atlantic Oscillation) in winter were the key influencing climate indices impacting the occurrence rates of floods. However, NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and SOI (South Oscillation Index) are two principle factors that influence the occurrence rates of regional floods. The AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) values indicated that compared to the influence of climate indices, occurrence rates of floods seemed to be more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes. Results of this study are important for flood management and development of mitigation measures.

  19. Enhanced transfer of terrestrially derived carbon to the atmosphere in a flooding event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Thomas S.; Garcia-Tigreros, Fenix; Yvon-Lewis, Shari A.; Shields, Michael; Mills, Heath J.; Butman, David; Osburn, Christopher; Raymond, Peter A.; Shank, G. Christopher; DiMarco, Steven F.; Walker, Nan; Kiel Reese, Brandi; Mullins-Perry, Ruth; Quigg, Antonietta; Aiken, George R.; Grossman, Ethan L.

    2013-01-01

    Rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, global climate change, and the sustainability of the Earth's biosphere are great societal concerns for the 21st century. Global climate change has, in part, resulted in a higher frequency of flooding events, which allow for greater exchange between soil/plant litter and aquatic carbon pools. Here we demonstrate that the summer 2011 flood in the Mississippi River basin, caused by extreme precipitation events, resulted in a “flushing” of terrestrially derived dissolved organic carbon (TDOC) to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Data from the lower Atchafalaya and Mississippi rivers showed that the DOC flux to the northern Gulf of Mexico during this flood was significantly higher than in previous years. We also show that consumption of radiocarbon-modern TDOC by bacteria in floodwaters in the lower Atchafalaya River and along the adjacent shelf contributed to northern Gulf shelf waters changing from a net sink to a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere in June and August 2011. This work shows that enhanced flooding, which may or may not be caused by climate change, can result in rapid losses of stored carbon in soils to the atmosphere via processes in aquatic ecosystems.

  20. Synoptic thermodynamic and dynamic patterns associated with Quitandinha River flooding events in Petropolis, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Fabricio Polifke; Justi da Silva, Maria Gertrudes Alvarez; Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa; Pires, Gisele Dornelles; Sampaio, Rafael João; de Araújo, Afonso Augusto Magalhães

    2018-05-01

    Natural disasters are the result of extreme or intense natural phenomena that cause severe impacts on society. These impacts can be mitigated through preventive measures that can be aided by better knowledge of extreme phenomena and monitoring of forecasting and alert systems. The city of Petropolis (in a mountainous region of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) is prone to heavy rain events, often leading to River overflows, landslides, and loss of life. In that context, this work endeavored to characterize the thermodynamic and dynamic synoptic patterns that trigger heavy rainfall episodes and the corresponding flooding of Quitandinha River. More specifically, we reviewed events from the time period between January 2013 and December 2014 using reanalysis data. We expect that the overall description obtained of synoptic patterns should provide adequate qualitative aid to the decision-making processes involved in operational forecasting procedures. We noticed that flooding events were related to the presence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), frontal systems (FS), and convective storms (CS). These systems showed a similar behavior on high-frequency wind components, notably with respect to northwest winds before precipitation and to a strong southwest wind component during rainfall events. Clustering analyses indicated that the main component for precipitation formation with regard to CS systems comes from daytime heating, with the dynamic component presenting greater efficiency for the FS configurations. The SACZ events were influenced by moisture availability along the vertical column of the atmosphere and also due to dynamic components of precipitation efficiency and daytime heating, the latter related to the continuous transport of moisture from the Amazon region and South Atlantic Ocean towards Rio de Janeiro state.

  1. Physiologically-based toxicokinetic models help identifying the key factors affecting contaminant uptake during flood events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brinkmann, Markus; Eichbaum, Kathrin [Department of Ecosystem Analysis, Institute for Environmental Research,ABBt – Aachen Biology and Biotechnology, RWTH Aachen University, Worringerweg 1, 52074 Aachen (Germany); Kammann, Ulrike [Thünen-Institute of Fisheries Ecology, Palmaille 9, 22767 Hamburg (Germany); Hudjetz, Sebastian [Department of Ecosystem Analysis, Institute for Environmental Research,ABBt – Aachen Biology and Biotechnology, RWTH Aachen University, Worringerweg 1, 52074 Aachen (Germany); Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, RWTH Aachen University, Mies-van-der-Rohe-Straße 1, 52056 Aachen (Germany); Cofalla, Catrina [Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, RWTH Aachen University, Mies-van-der-Rohe-Straße 1, 52056 Aachen (Germany); Buchinger, Sebastian; Reifferscheid, Georg [Federal Institute of Hydrology (BFG), Department G3: Biochemistry, Ecotoxicology, Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56068 Koblenz (Germany); Schüttrumpf, Holger [Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, RWTH Aachen University, Mies-van-der-Rohe-Straße 1, 52056 Aachen (Germany); Preuss, Thomas [Department of Environmental Biology and Chemodynamics, Institute for Environmental Research,ABBt- Aachen Biology and Biotechnology, RWTH Aachen University, Worringerweg 1, 52074 Aachen (Germany); and others

    2014-07-01

    Highlights: • A PBTK model for trout was coupled with a sediment equilibrium partitioning model. • The influence of physical exercise on pollutant uptake was studies using the model. • Physical exercise during flood events can increase the level of biliary metabolites. • Cardiac output and effective respiratory volume were identified as relevant factors. • These confounding factors need to be considered also for bioconcentration studies. - Abstract: As a consequence of global climate change, we will be likely facing an increasing frequency and intensity of flood events. Thus, the ecotoxicological relevance of sediment re-suspension is of growing concern. It is vital to understand contaminant uptake from suspended sediments and relate it to effects in aquatic biota. Here we report on a computational study that utilizes a physiologically based toxicokinetic model to predict uptake, metabolism and excretion of sediment-borne pyrene in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). To this end, data from two experimental studies were compared with the model predictions: (a) batch re-suspension experiments with constant concentration of suspended particulate matter at two different temperatures (12 and 24 °C), and (b) simulated flood events in an annular flume. The model predicted both the final concentrations and the kinetics of 1-hydroxypyrene secretion into the gall bladder of exposed rainbow trout well. We were able to show that exhaustive exercise during exposure in simulated flood events can lead to increased levels of biliary metabolites and identified cardiac output and effective respiratory volume as the two most important factors for contaminant uptake. The results of our study clearly demonstrate the relevance and the necessity to investigate uptake of contaminants from suspended sediments under realistic exposure scenarios.

  2. Physiologically-based toxicokinetic models help identifying the key factors affecting contaminant uptake during flood events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinkmann, Markus; Eichbaum, Kathrin; Kammann, Ulrike; Hudjetz, Sebastian; Cofalla, Catrina; Buchinger, Sebastian; Reifferscheid, Georg; Schüttrumpf, Holger; Preuss, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A PBTK model for trout was coupled with a sediment equilibrium partitioning model. • The influence of physical exercise on pollutant uptake was studies using the model. • Physical exercise during flood events can increase the level of biliary metabolites. • Cardiac output and effective respiratory volume were identified as relevant factors. • These confounding factors need to be considered also for bioconcentration studies. - Abstract: As a consequence of global climate change, we will be likely facing an increasing frequency and intensity of flood events. Thus, the ecotoxicological relevance of sediment re-suspension is of growing concern. It is vital to understand contaminant uptake from suspended sediments and relate it to effects in aquatic biota. Here we report on a computational study that utilizes a physiologically based toxicokinetic model to predict uptake, metabolism and excretion of sediment-borne pyrene in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). To this end, data from two experimental studies were compared with the model predictions: (a) batch re-suspension experiments with constant concentration of suspended particulate matter at two different temperatures (12 and 24 °C), and (b) simulated flood events in an annular flume. The model predicted both the final concentrations and the kinetics of 1-hydroxypyrene secretion into the gall bladder of exposed rainbow trout well. We were able to show that exhaustive exercise during exposure in simulated flood events can lead to increased levels of biliary metabolites and identified cardiac output and effective respiratory volume as the two most important factors for contaminant uptake. The results of our study clearly demonstrate the relevance and the necessity to investigate uptake of contaminants from suspended sediments under realistic exposure scenarios

  3. Flood modelling with a distributed event-based parsimonious rainfall-runoff model: case of the karstic Lez river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Coustau

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for the statistical prediction of flash floods and real-time forecasting. This paper focuses on a karstic basin in the South of France and proposes a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model, coherent with the poor knowledge of both evaporative and underground fluxes. The model combines a SCS runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The efficiency of the model is discussed not only to satisfactorily simulate floods but also to get powerful relationships between the initial condition of the model and various predictors of the initial wetness state of the basin, such as the base flow, the Hu2 index from the Meteo-France SIM model and the piezometric levels of the aquifer. The advantage of using meteorological radar rainfall in flood modelling is also assessed. Model calibration proved to be satisfactory by using an hourly time step with Nash criterion values, ranging between 0.66 and 0.94 for eighteen of the twenty-one selected events. The radar rainfall inputs significantly improved the simulations or the assessment of the initial condition of the model for 5 events at the beginning of autumn, mostly in September–October (mean improvement of Nash is 0.09; correction in the initial condition ranges from −205 to 124 mm, but were less efficient for the events at the end of autumn. In this period, the weak vertical extension of the precipitation system and the low altitude of the 0 °C isotherm could affect the efficiency of radar measurements due to the distance between the basin and the radar (~60 km. The model initial condition S is correlated with the three tested predictors (R2 > 0.6. The interpretation of the model suggests that groundwater does not affect the first peaks of the flood, but can strongly impact subsequent peaks in the case of a multi-storm event. Because this kind of model is based on a limited

  4. Impact of the Rainfall Duration and Temporal Rainfall Distribution Defined Using the Huff Curves on the Hydraulic Flood Modelling Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nejc Bezak

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In the case of ungauged catchments, different procedures can be used to derive the design hydrograph and design peak discharge, which are crucial input data for the design of different hydrotechnical engineering structures, or the production of flood hazard maps. One of the possible approaches involves using a hydrological model where one can calculate the design hydrograph through the design of a rainfall event. This study investigates the impact of the design rainfall on the combined one-dimensional/two-dimensional (1D/2D hydraulic modelling results. The Glinščica Stream catchment located in Slovenia (central Europe is used as a case study. Ten different design rainfall events were compared for 10 and 100-year return periods, where we used Huff curves for the design rainfall event definition. The results indicate that the selection of the design rainfall event should be regarded as an important step, since the hydraulic modelling results for different scenarios differ significantly. In the presented experimental case study, the maximum flooded area extent was twice as large as the minimum one, and the maximum water velocity over flooded areas was more than 10 times larger than the minimum one. This can lead to the production of very different flood hazard maps, and consequently planning very different flood protection schemes.

  5. Environmental impacts of flood control measures in climate change adaptation strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brudler, Sarah; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    it on the surface without harming assets. When evaluating different adaptation approaches, a cost assessment is typically carried out, while environmental impacts usually are not considered. To close this gap, a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) based method is developed, which allows to quantify environmental impacts...... only contribute up to 4% of the environmental impacts for the CMP and less than 1% for the SSA. Our method helps explain how the handling of everyday events and extreme rain events affect the environmental sustainability of climate change adaptation and it enables cities to consider the environmental......Because of climatic changes, large investments are needed to keep flood risk at an acceptable level in urban areas. Increasing dimensions of underground sewer systems and retention basins are increasingly supplemented with multi-functional approaches, aimed at managing water locally and/or route...

  6. Predicted high-water elevations for selected flood events at the Albert Pike Recreation Area, Ouachita National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.A. Marion

    2012-01-01

    The hydraulic characteristics are determined for the June 11, 2010, flood on the Little Missouri River at the Albert Pike Recreation Area in Arkansas. These characteristics are then used to predict the high-water elevations for the 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood events in the Loop B, C, and D Campgrounds of the recreation area. The peak discharge and related...

  7. Urban pluvial flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

  8. The 2014 coral bleaching and freshwater flood events in Kāne'ohe Bay, Hawai'i.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahr, Keisha D; Jokiel, Paul L; Rodgers, Kuʻulei S

    2015-01-01

    Until recently, subtropical Hawai'i escaped the major bleaching events that have devastated many tropical regions, but the continued increases in global long-term mean temperatures and the apparent ending of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cool phase have increased the risk of bleaching events. Climate models and observations predict that bleaching in Hawai'i will occur with increasing frequency and increasing severity over future decades. A freshwater "kill" event occurred during July 2014 in the northern part of Kāne'ohe Bay that reduced coral cover by 22.5% in the area directly impacted by flooding. A subsequent major bleaching event during September 2014 caused extensive coral bleaching and mortality throughout the bay and further reduced coral cover in the freshwater kill area by 60.0%. The high temperature bleaching event only caused a 1.0% reduction in live coral throughout the portion of the bay not directly impacted by the freshwater event. Thus, the combined impact of the low salinity event and the thermal bleaching event appears to be more than simply additive. The temperature regime during the September 2014 bleaching event was analogous in duration and intensity to that of the large bleaching event that occurred previously during August 1996, but resulted in a much larger area of bleaching and coral mortality. Apparently seasonal timing as well as duration and magnitude of heating is important. Coral spawning in the dominant coral species occurs early in the summer, so reservoirs of stored lipid in the corals had been depleted by spawning prior to the September 2014 event. Warm months above 27 °C result in lower coral growth and presumably could further decrease lipid reserves, leading to a bleaching event that was more severe than would have happened if the high temperatures occurred earlier in the summer. Hawaiian reef corals decrease skeletal growth at temperatures above 27 °C, so perhaps the "stress period" actually started long before the

  9. Coupling a global climatic model with insurance impact models for flood and drought: an estimation of the financial impact of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tinard Pierre

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available CCR, a French reinsurance company mostly involved in natural disasters coverage in France, has been developing tools for the estimation of its exposure to climatic risks for many years. Both a flood and a drought models were developed and calibrated on a large policies and claims database supplied every year with insurers’ data. More recently, CCR has been developing a stochastic approach in order to evaluate its financial exposure to extreme events. A large and realistic event set has been generated by applying extreme value statistic tools to simulate hazard and to estimate, using our impact models, the average annual losses and losses related to different return periods. These event sets have been simulated separately for flood and drought, with a hypothesis of independence, consistent with recent annual damage data. The newest development presented here consists in the use of the ARPEGE–Climat model performed by Météo-France to simulate two 200-years sets of hourly atmospheric time series reflecting both the current climate and the RCP 4.5 climate conditions circa year 2050. These climatic data constitute the input data for the flood and drought impact models to detect events and simulate the associated hazard and damages. Our two main goals are (1 to simulate simultaneously flood and drought events for the same simulated years and (2 to evaluate the financial impact of climate change.

  10. Agent based models for testing city evacuation strategies under a flood event as strategy to reduce flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Neiler; Sanchez, Arlex; Nokolic, Igor; Vojinovic, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    This research explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities at risk from flood events due to extreme hydro-meteorological events with the final purpose of disaster risk reduction by decreasing human's exposure to the hazard. The first part of the paper corresponds to the theory used to build the models such as: Complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. The first section outlines the pros and cons of using AMB to test city evacuation strategies at medium and large scale. The second part of the paper focuses on the central theory used to build the ABM, specifically the psychological and behavioral model as well as the framework used in this research, specifically the PECS reference model is cover in this section. The last part of this section covers the main attributes or characteristics of human beings used to described the agents. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast-Symphony as an open source agent-based modelling and simulation platform. The preliminary results for the first implementation in a region of the island of Sint-Maarten a Dutch Caribbean island are presented and discussed in the fourth section of paper. The results obtained so far, are promising for a further development of the model and its implementation and testing in a full scale city

  11. Impact of Austrian hydropower plants on the flood control safety of the Hungarian Danube reach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zsuffa, I.

    1999-01-01

    Statistical analysis of daily water level data from four gauging stations along the Hungarian Danube reach has been carried out with the purpose of analysing the impact of the Austrian hydropower plants on the floods of the river. Conditional probability distribution functions of annual flood load maxima and annual number of floods were generated for the periods 1957-1976 and 1977-1996. By comparing these distribution functions, it could be shown that the flood load maxima have decreased, while the number of small and medium floods have increased during the past forty years. These changes indicate a decreased rate of flood superposition resulting from the barrages constructed in this period. The significantly decreased flood load maxima indicate that the Austrian barrage system has positive impact on the flood control safety of the Hungarian Danube reach

  12. Impact of urbanization on flood of Shigu creek in Dongguan city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Luying; Chen, Yangbo; Zhang, Tao

    2018-06-01

    Shigu creek is a highly urbanized small watershed in Dongguan City. Due to rapid urbanization, quick flood response has been observed, which posted great threat to the flood security of Dongguan City. To evaluate the impact of urbanization on the flood changes of Shigu creek is very important for the flood mitigation of Shigu creek, which will provide insight for flood planners and managers for if to build a larger flood mitigation system. In this paper, the Land cover/use changes of Shigu creek from 1987-2015 induced by urbanization was first extracted from a local database, then, the Liuxihe model, a physically based distributed hydrological model, is employed to simulate the flood processes impacted by urbanization. Precipitation of 3 storms was used for flood processes simulation. The results show that the runoff coefficient and peak flow have increased sharply.

  13. The impact of the 2011 floods in Thailand on world economy using resilience concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Nicolet, Pierrick; Rudaz, Benjamin; Sudmeier, Karen

    2014-05-01

    In fall 2011, Thailand suffered from floods in the area of Bangkok, where 30% of the world production of hard disks (HD) was located. This event had a great impact on HD production, which decreased drastically. In analysing the market price evolution of HDs throughout time after the event, the market price for HDs returned to a "normal" after one year. This variable can be considered as an index that recovers its normal value, similar to an indicator of resilience, when defined as « the efficiency required to return to a normal state during a given period of time ». In other words, it describes how efficiently world HD production returned to "business as usual". This presentation aims to provide a further analysis of resilience as relates to the overall cost of recovery after disasters and an element that should be included in a more comprehensive analysis of risk. To further analyse the concept of resilience, instantaneous resilience is defined: integration over time permits to obtain the total impact of this flood event on the world HD business based on the market prices. In the present approach we consider the direct cost of a disaster as the result of the standard risk (R) equation (R = H x V x Exp x W) including the vulnerability (V) which describes the direct impact of a disaster taking into account the elements at risk's value or number (W), the exposure (Exp) and the hazard (H). The total impact of a disaster (Impact total = R + DRE) is the sum of R and cost post disaster (DRE), which corresponds to the indirect costs of the disaster and depends on resilience. The resilience is then the capacity of a variable to reach a value similar to its pre-event value over a period of time. Its unit is then %. Regarding the Thai event, over one year, resilience is estimated at 69%, which leads to a negative impact of the flood of around 31% on the HD price or approximately 10 billion US globally. This result is similar to other estimations. This approach underlines

  14. Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz

    2016-04-01

    Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the

  15. Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

    2016-04-01

    incorporated in the model. The stage/discharge relations obtained at gauging stations were also compared to the real rating curves, showing a very different behavior of the method depending on the local configuration of the considered site. Some developments are now in progress in order to evaluate and validate, as far as possible, the results of the entire simulation chain at the event scale. This work relies on the comparison of simulation results (estimated flood impacts) with insurance losses data (provided by CCR) for several significant past flood events. The first results of this work will be presented.

  16. Creating social impact with side-events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hover, Paul; Dijk, Bake; Breedveld, Koen; van Eekeren, Frank; Slender, Hans

    All over the world, sport events are seen as significant tools for creating positive social impact. This is understandable, as sport events have the power to attract enthusiastic participants, volunteers and to reach large audiences of visitors and followers via (social) media. Outbursts of

  17. Creating social impact with sport events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hover, P.; Dijk, B.; Breedveld, K.; Eekeren, F.J.A. van; Slender, H.

    2016-01-01

    All over the world, sport events are seen as significant tools for creating positive social impact. This is understandable, as sport events have the power to attract enthusiastic participants, volunteers and to reach large audiences of visitors and followers via (social) media. Outbursts of

  18. Source and composition of surface water dissolved organic matter (DOM) and the effect of flood events on the organic matter cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondar-Kunze, Elisabeth; Welti, Nina; Tritthart, Michael; Baker, Andrew; Pinay, Gilles; Hein, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Floodplains are often simultaneously affected by land use change, river regulation and loss of hydrological dynamics which alter the surface water connectivity between floodplain and river main channel. These alterations can have significant impacts on the sources of organic matter and their degradation and thus, the carbon cycling of riverine landscapes. Although floodplains are known to be important sources of dissolved organic matter (DOM) within watersheds, reduced hydrological connectivity impair their role. The key questions of our research were to determine i) to what extent the degree of connection between the Danube River and its floodplain controlled the DOM composition with its backwater systems, and ii) what were the effects of the DOM changes on carbon cycling in floodplains during two flood events with different magnitude? In this study we report on the variations in DOM spectrophotometric properties of surface waters in different connected floodplain areas and during two flood events of different magnitude in a section of the Alluvial Zone National Park of the Danube River downstream Vienna, Austria. Two backwater floodplain systems were studied, one backwater system mostly disconnected from the fluvial dynamics except during high flood events (Lower Lobau) and the second one, recently restored and connected even during mean flow conditions (Orth). Fluorescence excitation-emission matrix (EEM) spectrophotometry and water chemical analyses were applied to investigate the DOM dynamics. In both backwater systems 15 sites were sampled monthly for two years and every second day during a flood event.

  19. Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

    2018-04-01

    Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

  20. Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

    2015-04-01

    In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA

  1. Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

  2. Analysis of core-concrete interaction event with flooding for the Advanced Neutron Source reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S.H.; Taleyarkhan, R.P.; Georgevich, V.; Navarro-Valenti, S.

    1993-01-01

    This paper discusses salient aspects of the methodology, assumptions, and modeling of various features related to estimation of source terms from an accident involving a molten core-concrete interaction event (with and without flooding) in the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Various containment configurations are considered for this postulated severe accident. Several design features (such as rupture disks) are examined to study containment response during this severe accident. Also, thermal-hydraulic response of the containment and radionuclide transport and retention in the containment are studied. The results are described as transient variations of source terms, which are then used for studying off-site radiological consequences and health effects for the support of the Conceptual Safety Analysis Report for ANS. The results are also to be used to examine the effectiveness of subpile room flooding during this type of severe accident

  3. Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gaitan Sabogal, S.; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Rogger, M; Aksoy, H; Kooy, M

    2015-01-01

    Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing

  4. Mapping the Recent US Hurricanes Triggered Flood Events in Near Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, X.; Lazin, R.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Brakenridge, G. R.

    2017-12-01

    Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observations is the only reliable remote sensing data source to map flood inundation during severe weather events. Unfortunately, since state-of-art data processing algorithms cannot meet the automation and quality standard of a near-real-time (NRT) system, quality controlled inundation mapping by SAR currently depends heavily on manual processing, which limits our capability to quickly issue flood inundation maps at global scale. Specifically, most SAR-based inundation mapping algorithms are not fully automated, while those that are automated exhibit severe over- and/or under-detection errors that limit their potential. These detection errors are primarily caused by the strong overlap among the SAR backscattering probability density functions (PDF) of different land cover types. In this study, we tested a newly developed NRT SAR-based inundation mapping system, named Radar Produced Inundation Diary (RAPID), using Sentinel-1 dual polarized SAR data over recent flood events caused by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria (2017). The system consists of 1) self-optimized multi-threshold classification, 2) over-detection removal using land-cover information and change detection, 3) under-detection compensation, and 4) machine-learning based correction. Algorithm details are introduced in another poster, H53J-1603. Good agreements were obtained by comparing the result from RAPID with visual interpretation of SAR images and manual processing from Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) (See Figure 1). Specifically, the over- and under-detections that is typically noted in automated methods is significantly reduced to negligible levels. This performance indicates that RAPID can address the automation and accuracy issues of current state-of-art algorithms and has the potential to apply operationally on a number of satellite SAR missions, such as SWOT, ALOS, Sentinel etc. RAPID data can support many applications such as rapid assessment of damage

  5. 78 FR 75370 - Draft Supplemental Environmental Assessment and Finding of No Significant Impact for Flood...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-11

    ... Environmental Assessment and Finding of No Significant Impact for Flood Control Improvements to the Rio Grande... Supplemental Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI). SUMMARY: Pursuant to... Significant Impact for Flood Control Improvements to the Rio Grande Canalization Project in Vado, New Mexico...

  6. Hydrologic and Geomorphic Impacts of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Low-Order Tributaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, S. W.; Jacquet, J.; McGrath, D.; George, D. L.; Koschitzki, R.; Nimick, D.; Fahey, M. J.; Okuinghttons, J.

    2017-12-01

    Lakes dammed by glacial ice or moraines are common features in the headwaters of both glaciated and recently deglaciated catchments. These dams can fail releasing water in a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), which raises the question: do GLOFs from low-order tributaries significantly alter the hydrology and sediment transport regimes of the large mainstem rivers to which they drain? Here we use repeat satellite imagery, in situ measurements, and 2D hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the hydrologic and geomorphic changes that resulted from 22 GLOFs that occurred between 2008 and 2016 from Lago Cachet Dos, Patagonia, Chile. We find that the complicated flood path that includes two lakes and a broad floodplain can dampen peak discharges from over 15,000 m³/s at the source lake to generally less than 2,000 m³/s where the floods enter the mainstem Rio Baker, 40 km downstream. Despite this dampening of GLOF peak discharge, peak discharges still exceeded the peak annual discharge of the Rio Baker, the largest river in Chile by volume, by 1 to 2 times, which in turn increased the frequency and magnitude of flood events. We also document the sediment dynamics in the source lake, where we find that over 25,000,000 m³ of stored sediment was removed during the GLOF cycle that began in 2008. Further downstream, repeat satellite imagery reveals that the large discharges associated with GLOFs produced a nonsteady channel configuration in which old stable channels were abandoned, many new channels were formed, and conveyance capacity changed, best illustrated by the 200 m of delta progradation from the GLOF-affected tributary into the Rio Baker that locally narrowed the Rio Baker channel width from 300 m to 60 m. In total, this analysis demonstrates that GLOFs from distant source lakes can have an outsized impact, both in terms of changing flood characteristics as well as sediment transport, even on the largest river systems.

  7. Probabilistic flood forecasting tool for Andalusia (Spain). Application to September 2012 disaster event in Vera Playa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Darío; Baquerizo, Asunción; Ortega, Miguel; Herrero, Javier; Ángel Losada, Miguel

    2013-04-01

    Torrential and heavy rains are frequent in Andalusia (Southern Spain) due to the characteristic Mediterranean climate (semi-arid areas). This, in combination with a massive occupation of floodable (river sides) and coastal areas, produces severe problems of management and damage to the population and social and economical activities when extreme events occur. Some of the most important problems are being produced during last years in Almería (Southeastern Andalusia). Between 27 and 28 September 2012 rainstorms characterized by 240mm in 24h (exceeding precipitation for a return period of 500 years) occurred. Antas River and Jático creek, that are normally dry, became raging torrents. The massive flooding of occupied areas resulted in eleven deaths and two missing in Andalucía, with a total estimated cost of all claims for compensation on the order of 197 million euros. This study presents a probabilistic flood forecasting tool including the effect of river and marine forcings. It is based on a distributed, physically-based hydrological model (WiMMed). For Almería the model has been calibrated with the largest event recorded in Cantoria gauging station (data since 1965) on 19 October 1973. It was then validated with the second strongest event (26 October 1977). Among the different results of the model, it can provide probability floods scenarios in Andalusia with up 10 days weather forecasts. The tool has been applied to Vera, a 15.000 inhabitants town located in the east of Almería along the Antas River at an altitude of 95 meters. Its main economic resource is the "beach and sun" based-tourism, which has experienced an enormous growth during last decades. Its coastal stretch has been completely built in these years, occupying floodable areas and constricting the channel and rivers mouths. Simulations of the model in this area for the 1973 event and published in March 2011 on the internet event already announced that the floods of September 2012 may occur.

  8. Characterization of the Temporal Clustering of Flood Events across the Central United States in terms of Climate States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallakpour, Iman; Villarini, Gabriele; Jones, Michael; Smith, James

    2016-04-01

    The central United States is a region of the country that has been plagued by frequent catastrophic flooding (e.g., flood events of 1993, 2008, 2013, and 2014), with large economic and social repercussions (e.g., fatalities, agricultural losses, flood losses, water quality issues). The goal of this study is to examine whether it is possible to describe the occurrence of flood events at the sub-seasonal scale in terms of variations in the climate system. Daily streamflow time series from 774 USGS stream gage stations over the central United States (defined here to include North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan) with a record of at least 50 years and ending no earlier than 2011 are used for this study. We use a peak-over-threshold (POT) approach to identify flood peaks so that we have, on average two events per year. We model the occurrence/non-occurrence of a flood event over time using regression models based on Cox processes. Cox processes are widely used in biostatistics and can be viewed as a generalization of Poisson processes. Rather than assuming that flood events occur independently of the occurrence of previous events (as in Poisson processes), Cox processes allow us to account for the potential presence of temporal clustering, which manifests itself in an alternation of quiet and active periods. Here we model the occurrence/non-occurrence of flood events using two climate indices as climate time-varying covariates: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA). The results of this study show that NAO and/or PNA can explain the temporal clustering in flood occurrences in over 90% of the stream gage stations we considered. Analyses of the sensitivity of the results to different average numbers of flood events per year (from one to five) are also performed and lead to the same conclusions. The findings of this work

  9. Studying the impact of academic events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas Trøst; Pedersen, David Budtz

    2018-01-01

    of scholarly work, to increase collaboration with non-academic partners and to achieve a broad range of socio-economic benefits. Impact assessment frameworks are occupied with documenting the effects of science on a large number of variables. However, the participation and hosting of academic events have......Demands that publicly funded scientific research should demonstrate its academic and societal impact have been commonplace for some time. Research communities, university administrators and policy-makers are looking to impact assessments and impact toolkits to better communicate the value...... not been included in most frameworks. In this scoping review, we demonstrate that academic events are an important vehicle for academic and societal value-creation that should be integrated in future impact studies. The review presents the main trends in the literature by categorizing the impact...

  10. Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    KAUST Repository

    Deng, Liping

    2015-05-01

    The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite, in situ, and reanalysis data. Here, we focus on characterizing the initial synoptic features and examining the impact of model parameterization and resolution on the reproduction of a number of flood-producing rainfall events that occurred over the western Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. Analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data suggests that mesoscale convective systems associated with strong moisture convergence ahead of a trough were the major initial features for the occurrence of these intense rain events. The WRF Model was able to simulate the heavy rainfall, with driving convective processes well characterized by a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The use of higher (1 km vs 5 km) resolution along the Jeddah coastline favors the simulation of local convective systems and adds value to the simulation of heavy rainfall, especially for deep-convection-related extreme values. At the 5-km resolution, corresponding to an intermediate study domain, simulation without a cumulus scheme led to the formation of deeper convective systems and enhanced rainfall around Jeddah, illustrating the need for careful model scheme selection in this transition resolution. In analysis of multiple nested WRF simulations (25, 5, and 1 km), localized volume and intensity of heavy rainfall together with the duration of rainstorms within the Jeddah catchment area were captured reasonably well, although there was evidence of some displacements of rainstorm events.

  11. An agent-based modelling framework to explore the role of social media and stubborn people on evacuation rates during flooding events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.; Sun, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a non-linear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

  12. Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    J. A. Marengo * and J. C. Espinoza** * Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação, Sao Paulo, Brazil ** Subdirección de Ciencias de la Atmósfera e Hidrósfera (SCAH), Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima, Peru This paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods. The review includes a history of droughts and floods in the past, in the present and some discussions on future extremes in the context of climate change and its impacts on the Amazon region. Several extreme hydrological events, some of them characterized as 'once in a century', have been reported in the Amazon region during the last decade. While abundant rainfall in various sectors of the basin has determined extreme floods along the river's main stem in 1953, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2012-2015, deficient rainfall in 1912, 1926, 1963, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 has caused anomalously low river levels, and an increase in the risk and number of fires in the region, with consequences for humans. This is consistent with changes in the variability of the hydrometeorology of the basin and suggests that extreme hydrological events have been more frequent in the last two decades. Some of these intense/reduced rainfalls and subsequent floods/droughts were associated (but not exclusively) with La Niña/El Niño events. In addition, moisture transport anomalies from the tropical Atlantic into Amazonia, and from northern to southern Amazonia alter the water cycle in the region year-to-year. We also assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades. In the context of the future climate change, studies show a large range of uncertainty, but suggest that drought might intensify through the 21st

  13. Combining empirical approaches and error modelling to enhance predictive uncertainty estimation in extrapolation for operational flood forecasting. Tests on flood events on the Loire basin, France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthet, Lionel; Marty, Renaud; Bourgin, François; Viatgé, Julie; Piotte, Olivier; Perrin, Charles

    2017-04-01

    An increasing number of operational flood forecasting centres assess the predictive uncertainty associated with their forecasts and communicate it to the end users. This information can match the end-users needs (i.e. prove to be useful for an efficient crisis management) only if it is reliable: reliability is therefore a key quality for operational flood forecasts. In 2015, the French flood forecasting national and regional services (Vigicrues network; www.vigicrues.gouv.fr) implemented a framework to compute quantitative discharge and water level forecasts and to assess the predictive uncertainty. Among the possible technical options to achieve this goal, a statistical analysis of past forecasting errors of deterministic models has been selected (QUOIQUE method, Bourgin, 2014). It is a data-based and non-parametric approach based on as few assumptions as possible about the forecasting error mathematical structure. In particular, a very simple assumption is made regarding the predictive uncertainty distributions for large events outside the range of the calibration data: the multiplicative error distribution is assumed to be constant, whatever the magnitude of the flood. Indeed, the predictive distributions may not be reliable in extrapolation. However, estimating the predictive uncertainty for these rare events is crucial when major floods are of concern. In order to improve the forecasts reliability for major floods, an attempt at combining the operational strength of the empirical statistical analysis and a simple error modelling is done. Since the heteroscedasticity of forecast errors can considerably weaken the predictive reliability for large floods, this error modelling is based on the log-sinh transformation which proved to reduce significantly the heteroscedasticity of the transformed error in a simulation context, even for flood peaks (Wang et al., 2012). Exploratory tests on some operational forecasts issued during the recent floods experienced in

  14. Characterization of a Flood Event through a Sediment Analysis: The Tescio River Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Di Francesco

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the hydrological analysis and grain size characteristics of fluvial sediments in a river basin and their combination to characterize a flood event. The overall objective of the research is the development of a practical methodology based on experimental surveys to reconstruct the hydraulic history of ungauged river reaches on the basis of the modifications detected on the riverbed during the dry season. The grain size analysis of fluvial deposits usually requires great technical and economical efforts and traditional sieving based on physical sampling is not appropriate to adequately represent the spatial distribution of sediments in a wide area of a riverbed with a reasonable number of samples. The use of photographic sampling techniques, on the other hand, allows for the quick and effective determination of the grain size distribution, through the use of a digital camera and specific graphical algorithms in large river stretches. A photographic sampling is employed to characterize the riverbed in a 3 km ungauged reach of the Tescio River, a tributary of the Chiascio River, located in central Italy, representative of many rivers in the same geographical area. To this end, the particle size distribution is reconstructed through the analysis of digital pictures of the sediments taken on the riverbed in dry conditions. The sampling has been performed after a flood event of known duration, which allows for the identification of the removal of the armor in one section along the river reach under investigation. The volume and composition of the eroded sediments made it possible to calculate the average flow rate associated with the flood event which caused the erosion, by means of the sediment transport laws and the hydrological analysis of the river basin. A hydraulic analysis of the river stretch under investigation was employed to verify the validity of the proposed procedure.

  15. Extreme flood event reconstruction spanning the last century in the El Bibane Lagoon (southeastern Tunisia: a multi-proxy approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Affouri

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate models project that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will increase the frequency and the severity of some extreme weather events. The flood events represent a major risk for populations and infrastructures settled on coastal lowlands. Recent studies of lagoon sediments have enhanced our knowledge on extreme hydrological events such as palaeo-storms and on their relation with climate change over the last millennium. However, few studies have been undertaken to reconstruct past flood events from lagoon sediments. Here, the past flood activity was investigated using a multi-proxy approach combining sedimentological and geochemical analysis of surfaces sediments from a southeastern Tunisian catchment in order to trace the origin of sediment deposits in the El Bibane Lagoon. Three sediment sources were identified: marine, fluvial and aeolian. When applying this multi-proxy approach on core BL12-10, recovered from the El Bibane Lagoon, we can see that finer material, a high content of the clay and silt, and a high content of the elemental ratios (Fe ∕ Ca and Ti ∕ Ca characterise the sedimentological signature of the palaeo-flood levels identified in the lagoonal sequence. For the last century, which is the period covered by the BL12-10 short core, three palaeo-flood events were identified. The age of these flood events have been determined by 210Pb and 137Cs chronology and give ages of AD 1995 ± 6, 1970 ± 9 and 1945 ± 9. These results show a good temporal correlation with historical flood events recorded in southern Tunisia in the last century (AD 1932, 1969, 1979 and 1995. Our finding suggests that reconstruction of the history of the hydrological extreme events during the upper Holocene is possible in this location through the use of the sedimentary archives.

  16. Urban Surface Water Quality, Flood Water Quality and Human Health Impacts in Chinese Cities. What Do We Know?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhan Rui

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and urbanization have led to an increase in the frequency of extreme water related events such as flooding, which has negative impacts on the environment, economy and human health. With respect to the latter, our understanding of the interrelationship between flooding, urban surface water and human health is still very limited. More in-depth research in this area is needed to further strengthen the process of planning and implementation of responses to mitigate the negative health impacts of flooding in urban areas. The objective of this paper is to assess the state of the research on the interrelationship between surface water quality, flood water quality and human health in urban areas based on the published literature. These insights will be instrumental in identifying and prioritizing future research needs in this area. In this study, research publications in the domain of urban flooding, surface water quality and human health were collated using keyword searches. A detailed assessment of these publications substantiated the limited number of publications focusing on the link between flooding and human health. There was also an uneven geographical distribution of the study areas, as most of the studies focused on developed countries. A few studies have focused on developing countries, although the severity of water quality issues is higher in these countries. The study also revealed a disparity of research in this field across regions in China as most of the studies focused on the populous south-eastern region of China. The lack of studies in some regions has been attributed to the absence of flood water quality monitoring systems which allow the collection of real-time water quality monitoring data during flooding in urban areas. The widespread implementation of cost effective real-time water quality monitoring systems which are based on the latest remote or mobile phone based data acquisition techniques is recommended

  17. Adapting Reservoir Operations to Reduce the Multi-Sectoral Impacts of Flood Intensification in the Lower Susquehanna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zatarain-Salazar, J.; Reed, P. M.; Quinn, J.

    2017-12-01

    This study characterizes how changes in reservoir operations can be used to better balance growing flood intensities and the conflicting multi-sectorial demands in the Lower Susequehanna River Basin (LSRB), USA. Tensions in the LSRB are increasing with urban population pressures, evolving energy demands, and growing flood-based infrastructure vulnerabilities. This study explores how re-operation of the Conowingo Reservoir, located in the LSRB, can improve the balance between competing demands for hydropower production, urban water supply to Chester, PA and Baltimore, MD, cooling water supply for the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Plant, recreation, federal environmental flow requirements and improved mitigation of growing flood hazards. The LSRB is also one of the most flood prone basins in the US, impacted by hurricanes and rain-on-snow induced flood events causing on average $100 million in economic losses and infrastructure damages to downstream settlements every year. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the consequences of mathematical formulation choices, uncertainty characterization and the value of information when defining the Conowingo reservoir's multi-purpose operations. This work seeks to strike a balance between the complexity and the efficacy of rival framings for the problem formulations used to discover effective operating policies. More broadly, the problem of intensifying urban floods in reservoir systems with complex multi-sectoral demands is broadly relevant to developed river basins globally.

  18. Dynamics of pollutant indicators during flood events in a small river under strong anthropogenic pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brion, Natacha; Carbonnel, Vincent; Elskens, Marc; Claeys, Philippe; Verbanck, Michel A.

    2017-04-01

    In densely populated regions, human activities profoundly modify natural water circulation as well as water quality, with increased hydrological risks (floods, droughts,…) and chemical hazards (untreated sewage releases, industrial pollution,…) as consequence. In order to assess water and pollutants dynamics and their mass-balance in strongly modified river system, it is important to take into account high flow events as a significant fraction of water and pollutants loads may occur during these short events which are generally underrepresented in classical mass balance studies. A good example of strongly modified river systems is the Zenne river in and around the city of Brussels (Belgium).The Zenne River (Belgium) is a rather small but dynamic rain fed river (about 10 m3/s in average) that is under the influence of strong contrasting anthropogenic pressures along its stretch. While the upstream part of its basin is rather characterized by agricultural land-use, urban and industrial areas dominate the downstream part. In particular, the city of Brussels (1.1M inhabitants) discharges in the Zenne River amounts of wastewater that are large compared to the natural riverine flow. In order to assess water and pollutants dynamics and their mass-balance in the Zenne hydrographic network, we followed water flows and concentrations of several water quality tracers during several flood episodes with an hourly frequency and at different locations along the stretch of the River. These parameters were chosen as indicators of a whole range of pollutions and anthropogenic activities. Knowledge of the high-frequency pollutants dynamics during floods is required for establishing accurate mass-balances of these elements. We thus report here the dynamics of selected parameters during entire flood events, from the baseline to the decreasing phase and at hourly frequency. Dynamics at contrasting locations, in agricultural or urban environments are compared. In particular, the

  19. Evaluating the use of different precipitation datasets in simulating a flood event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akyurek, Z.; Ozkaya, A.

    2016-12-01

    Floods caused by convective storms in mountainous regions are sensitive to the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. Space-time estimates of rainfall from weather radar, satellites and numerical weather prediction models can be a remedy to represent pattern of the rainfall with some inaccuracy. However, there is a strong need for evaluation of the performance and limitations of these estimates in hydrology. This study aims to provide a comparison of gauge, radar, satellite (Hydro-Estimator (HE)) and numerical weather prediciton model (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)) precipitation datasets during an extreme flood event (22.11.2014) lasting 40 hours in Samsun-Turkey. For this study, hourly rainfall data from 13 ground observation stations were used in the analyses. This event having a peak discharge of 541 m3/sec created flooding at the downstream of Terme Basin. Comparisons were performed in two parts. First the analysis were performed in areal and point based manner. Secondly, a semi-distributed hydrological model was used to assess the accuracy of the rainfall datasets to simulate river flows for the flood event. Kalman Filtering was used in the bias correction of radar rainfall data compared to gauge measurements. Radar, gauge, corrected radar, HE and WRF rainfall data were used as model inputs. Generally, the HE product underestimates the cumulative rainfall amounts in all stations, radar data underestimates the results in cumulative sense but keeps the consistency in the results. On the other hand, almost all stations in WRF mean statistics computations have better results compared to the HE product but worse than the radar dataset. Results in point comparisons indicated that, trend of the rainfall is captured by the radar rainfall estimation well but radar underestimates the maximum values. According to cumulative gauge value, radar underestimated the cumulative rainfall amount by % 32. Contrary to other datasets, the bias of WRF is positive

  20. Consequences of an unusual flood event: case study of a drainage canal breach on a fluvial plain in NE Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidmar, Ines; Ambrožič, Bojan; Debeljak, Barbara; Dolžan, Erazem; Gregorin, Špela; Grom, Nina; Herman, Polona; Keršmanc, Teja; Mencin, Eva; Mernik, Natalija; Švara, Astrid; Trobec, Ana; Turnšek, Anita; Vodeb, Petra; Torkar, Anja; Brenčič, Mihael

    2013-04-01

    On November 4-6 2012 heavy precipitation resulted in floods in the middle and lower course of Drava River in NE Slovenia causing damage to many properties in the flooded area. The meteorological situation that led to consequent floods was characterized by high precipitation, fast snowmelt, SW wind and relatively high air temperature. The weather event was part of a cyclone which was spreading over the area of North, West and Central Europe in the direction of Central Europe and carried with it the passing of a cold front through Slovenia on November 4 and 5. The flood wave travelled on the Drava River from Austria to Slovenia past the 11 hydroelectric power plants after eventually moving over the Slovenian-Croatian border. The river discharge increased in the early morning of November 5 reaching 3165 m3/s. This work focuses on a single event in the Ptujsko polje where among other damage caused by the flooding, the river broke through the drainage canal of the Formin hydroelectric power plant and changed its course. The Ptujsko polje contains two fluvial terraces. In the area of Formin HPP, the lower terrace is 1.5 km wide and the surface as well as the groundwater gradient shift from west to east with the groundwater flowing parallel to the river. These characteristics contributed to the flooding and consequential breach in the embankment of the drainage canal. Several aspects of the recent floods are discussed including a critical reflection of data accessibility, possible causes and mechanisms behind it as well as the possibility of its forecasting. Synthesis of accessible data from open domain sources is performed with emphasis on geological conditions. Discharge and precipitation data from the data base of Slovenian Environment Agency are collected, reviewed and analyzed. The flood event itself is analyzed and described in detail. It is determined that the flood wave was different from the ones regulated by natural processes which points to an anthropogenic

  1. Climatological aspects of cyclonic tracks associated with flood events in Crete, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flocas, H. A.; Tsanis, I. K.; Katavoutas, G.; Kouroutzoglou, J.; Iordanidou, V.; Alexakis, D. D.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, an attempt was made to identify the tracks of the synoptic-scale cyclones associated with flood events in Crete, a Greek island in the southern Aegean Sea and to investigate their kinematic and dynamic characteristics and vertical structure for a period of 25 years. Furthermore, a comparison is made with the corresponding characteristics of the population of surface cyclones passing over Crete during the same period. The Melbourne University Cyclone Tracking Algorithm was employed to examine the genesis and movement of these cyclones while their vertical profile was examined with the aid of the vertical tracing software, Vertical Tracking Scheme (VTS). The input data are based on ERA INTERIM reanalysis datasets with resolution 0.5° × 0.5° during the period 1990 to 2014. It was found that the vast majority originate mainly over the north African coasts, contrasting the preference of all cyclones passing over Crete to develop within the Southeast Mediterranean. Cyclones associated with the flood events are more intense than the cyclonic population, being mainly characterized by long duration and track length. Furthermore, they reveal characteristics of vertically organized baroclinic systems, suggesting that they are mainly driven by baroclinic processes at upper and lower levels.

  2. Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, Sumaira

    2016-07-01

    Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

  3. Combining Neural Networks with Existing Methods to Estimate 1 in 100-Year Flood Event Magnitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newson, A.; See, L.

    2005-12-01

    Over the last fifteen years artificial neural networks (ANN) have been shown to be advantageous for the solution of many hydrological modelling problems. The use of ANNs for flood magnitude estimation in ungauged catchments, however, is a relatively new and under researched area. In this paper ANNs are used to make estimates of the magnitude of the 100-year flood event (Q100) for a number of ungauged catchments. The data used in this study were provided by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH), which contains information on catchments across the UK. Sixteen catchment descriptors for 719 catchments were used to train an ANN, which was split into a training, validation and test data set. The goodness-of-fit statistics on the test data set indicated good model performance, with an r-squared value of 0.8 and a coefficient of efficiency of 79 percent. Data for twelve ungauged catchments were then put through the trained ANN to produce estimates of Q100. Two other accepted methodologies were also employed: the FEH statistical method and the FSR (Flood Studies Report) design storm technique, both of which are used to produce flood frequency estimates. The advantage of developing an ANN model is that it provides a third figure to aid a hydrologist in making an accurate estimate. For six of the twelve catchments, there was a relatively low spread between estimates. In these instances, an estimate of Q100 could be made with a fair degree of certainty. Of the remaining six catchments, three had areas greater than 1000km2, which means the FSR design storm estimate cannot be used. Armed with the ANN model and the FEH statistical method the hydrologist still has two possible estimates to consider. For these three catchments, the estimates were also fairly similar, providing additional confidence to the estimation. In summary, the findings of this study have shown that an accurate estimation of Q100 can be made using the catchment descriptors of

  4. Increasing Flood Risk due to Run-off Outflow near Estuarine City during Storm Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, S.; Lee, C.; Do, K.; Jung, T.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclone easily causes inundation damage to low-lying coastal area and the damage may be amplified due to tide motion, sea-level rise, riverine discharges. Specifically, typhoons are accompanied by intensive rainfall, which will of course raise the river water level and thus enhance the flooding damages. If the tidal cycle coincides the high water, flooding will be even aggravated. In the present study, we simulated storm surge motions at the coastal area considering combined effects of tidal and river discharge with aim to improve the accuracy of flooding prediction. The quasi 3-dimension ocean circulation model, Delf3D was used which solves the unsteady shallow water equation in the 2D and 3D. Since Delft3D is much applicable to accommodate the indirect flooding factors such as riverine discharge and short waves, outer-coupled modeling system was established to account for combined tide-surge-riverine discharge effects. In such integrated system, 11 tidal constituents were input as open boundary condition using TPXO 7.2 model, while the water level per unit time was preliminary calculated by HEC-HMS model and input as the upstream boundary conditions for river inside the domain. Typhoon MAEMI which attacked Masan city located at southern coast of South Korea and caused severe inundation damages in 2003 was selected for the study event. Basic information for typhoon such as path, wind speed, atmospheric pressure every 3 hours was provided by the Korea Meteorological Agency and was adopted. The simulation was implemented with tide and storm surge boundary conditions focusing on the target area, Masan, while the additional consideration on the discharge of the river inside the domain was also made. Simulated water level at the fixed location was compared to the observation for its verification and the extent of inundation areas of Masan were compared between observed and calculated. The marginal contribution of riverine discharge on the flooding area

  5. Historical flood data series of Eastern Spanish Coast (14th-20th centuries). Improving identification of climatic patterns and human factors of flood events from primary documentary sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberola, Armando; Barriendos, Mariano; Gil-Guirado, Salvador; Pérez-Morales, Alfredo; Balasch, Carles; Castelltort, Xavier; Mazón, Jordi; Pino, David; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep; Tuset, Jordi

    2016-04-01

    Historical flood data series of Eastern Spanish Coast (14th-20th centuries). Improving identification of climatic patterns and human factors of flood events from primary documentary sources Armando Alberola, Barriendos, M., Gil-Guirado, S., Pérez Morales, A., Balasch, C., Castelltort, X., Mazón, J., Pino, D., Ruiz-Bellet, J.L., Tuset, J. Historical flood events in eastern spanish coast have been studied by different research groups and projects. Complexity of flood processes, involving atmospheric, surface and human factors, is not easily understandable when long time series are required. Present analysis from PREDIFLOOD Project Consortium defines a new step of flood event databases: Improved access to primary (documentary) and secondary (bibliographical) sources, data collection for all possible locations where floods are detected, and improved system of classification (Barriendos et al., 2014). A first analysis is applied to 8 selected flood series. Long chronologies from PREDIFLOOD Project for Catalonia region (Girona, Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida, Tortosa). In addition, to cover all sector of spanish mediterranean coast, we introduce Valencia city in Turia River basin. South Eastern sector is cover with Murcia and Caravaca cities, Segura River basin. Extension of area under study required contributions of research teams experienced in work of documentary primary sources (Alberola, 2006; Gil-Guirado, 2013). Flood frequency analysis for long scale periods show natural climatic oscillations into so-called Little Ice Age. There are general patterns, affecting most of basins, but also some local anomalies or singularities. To explain these differences and analogies it is not enough to use purely climatic factors. In this way, we analyze human factors that have been able to influence the variability of floods along last 6 centuries (demography, hydraulic infrastructures, urban development...). This approach improves strongly understanding of mechanisms producing

  6. NOAA Digital Coast Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer depicts potential sea level rise and its associated impacts on the nation's coastal areas. These coastal areas...

  7. Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace I. Davies

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  8. Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

    2014-12-23

    Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  9. Challenges in estimating the health impact of Hurricane Sandy using macro-level flood data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieberman-Cribbin, W.; Liu, B.; Schneider, S.; Schwartz, R.; Taioli, E.

    2016-12-01

    Background: Hurricane Sandy caused extensive physical and economic damage but the long-term health impacts are unknown. Flooding is a central component of hurricane exposure, influencing health through multiple pathways that unfold over months after flooding recedes. This study assesses concordance in Federal Emergency Management (FEMA) and self-reported flood exposure after Hurricane Sandy to elucidate discrepancies in flood exposure assessments. Methods: Three meter resolution New York State flood data was obtained from the FEMA Modeling Task Force Hurricane Sandy Impact Analysis. FEMA data was compared to self-reported flood data obtained through validated questionnaires from New York City and Long Island residents following Sandy. Flooding was defined as both dichotomous and continuous variables and analyses were performed in SAS v9.4 and ArcGIS 10.3.1. Results: There was a moderate agreement between FEMA and self-reported flooding (Kappa statistic 0.46) and continuous (Spearman's correlation coefficient 0.50) measures of flood exposure. Flooding was self-reported and recorded by FEMA in 23.6% of cases, while agreement between the two measures on no flooding was 51.1%. Flooding was self-reported but not recorded by FEMA in 8.5% of cases, while flooding was not self-reported but indicated by FEMA in 16.8% of cases. In this last instance, 84% of people (173/207; 83.6%) resided in an apartment (no flooding reported). Spatially, the most concordance resided in the interior of New York City / Long Island, while the greatest areas of discordance were concentrated in the Rockaway Peninsula and Long Beach, especially among those living in apartments. Conclusions: There were significant discrepancies between FEMA and self-reported flood data. While macro-level FEMA flood data is a relatively less expensive and faster way to provide exposure estimates spanning larger geographic areas affected by Hurricane Sandy than micro-level estimates from cohort studies, macro

  10. Quantifying the Impact of Floods on Bacillary Dysentery in Dalian City, China, From 2004 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xin; Ding, Guoyong; Zhang, Ying; Liu, Zhidong; Liu, Qiyong; Jiang, Baofa

    2017-04-01

    Studies quantifying relationships between floods and diarrheal diseases have mainly been conducted in low-latitude regions. It's therefore increasingly important to examine these relationships in midlatitude regions, where they may have significant public health implications. This study aimed to examine the association between floods and bacillary dysentery in the city of Dalian, China. A generalized additive mixed model was applied to examine the association between floods and bacillary dysentery. The relative risk (RR) of flood impact on bacillary dysentery was estimated. A total of 18,976 cases of bacillary dysentery were reported in Dalian during the study period. Two weeks' lagged effect was detected from the impact of floods on bacillary dysentery. The RR of flood impact on bacillary dysentery was 1.17 (95% CI: 1.03-1.33). Floods have significantly increased the risk of bacillary dysentery in Dalian. More studies should focus on the association between floods and infectious diseases in different regions. Our findings have significant implications for managing the negative health impact of floods in the midlatitude region of China. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:190-195).

  11. An overview of the applications for early warning and mapping of the flood events in New Brunswick

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mioc, Darka; McGillivray, E.; Anton, F.

    2014-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of the on-line flood warning implementation in the province of New Brunswick, Canada. The on-line flood warning applications are available via the “River Watch” website provided by the New Brunswick Department of Environment. Advanced GIS technology combined with hydr....... The searchable historical database containing reports about the impact of past floods and estimated damages provides a valuable insight into the past of the province of New Brunswick and the motivation for development of the system for flood prediction and management....... with hydrological modelling, provide a mapping and visualization tool that can be used by emergency managers and the general public to predict possible flood zones. The applications developed for “River Watch” support the processing of large amounts of digital terrain and hydrological data, which are then...

  12. Reconstruction and numerical modelling of a flash flood event: Atrani 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciervo, F.; Papa, M. N.; Medina, V.; Bateman, A.

    2012-04-01

    The work intends to reproduce the flash-flood event that occurred in Atrani (Amalfi Coast - Southern Italy) on the 9 September 2010. In the days leading up to the event, intense low pressure system affected the North Europe attracting hot humid air masses from the Mediterranean areas and pushing them to the southern regions of Italy. These conditions contributed to the development of strong convective storm systems, Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) type. The development of intense convective rain cells, over an extremely confined areas, leaded to a cumulative daily rainfall of 129.2 mm; the maximum precipitation in 1hr was 19.4mm. The Dragone river is artificially forced to flow underneath the urban estate of Atrani through a culvert until it finally flows out into the sea. In correspondence of the culvert inlet a minor fraction of the water discharge (5.9m^3/s), skimming over the channel cover, flowed on the street and invaded the village. The channelized flow generated overpressure involving the breaking of the cover of culvert slab and caused a new discharge inlet (20 m^3/s) on the street modifying the downstream flood dynamics. Information acquired, soon after the event, through the local people interviews and the field measurements significantly contributed to the rainfall event reconstruction and to the characterization of the induced effects. In absence of hydrometric data, the support of the amateur videos was of crucial importance for the hydraulic model development and calibration. A geomorphology based rainfall-runoff model, WFIUH type (Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph Width Function), is implemented to extract the hydrograph of the hydrological event. All analysis are performed with GIS support basing on a Digital Terrain System (DTM) 5x5m. Two parameters have been used to calibrate the model: the average watershed velocity (Vmean = 0.08m/s) and hydrodynamic diffusivity (D=10E^-6 m^2/s). The model is calibrated basing on the peak discharge assessed value

  13. A Participatory Modeling Application of a Distributed Hydrologic Model in Nuevo Leon, Mexico for the 2010 Hurricane Alex Flood Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baish, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Payan, J. G.; Robles-Morua, A.; Basile, G. M.

    2011-12-01

    A distributed hydrologic model can help bring consensus among diverse stakeholders in regional flood planning by producing quantifiable sets of alternative futures. This value is acute in areas with high uncertainties in hydrologic conditions and sparse observations. In this study, we conduct an application of the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) in the Santa Catarina basin of Nuevo Leon, Mexico, where Hurricane Alex in July 2010 led to catastrophic flooding of the capital city of Monterrey. Distributed model simulations utilize best-available information on the regional topography, land cover, and soils obtained from Mexican government agencies or analysis of remotely-sensed imagery from MODIS and ASTER. Furthermore, we developed meteorological forcing for the flood event based on multiple data sources, including three local gauge networks, satellite-based estimates from TRMM and PERSIANN, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Remotely-sensed data allowed us to quantify rainfall distributions in the upland, rural portions of the Santa Catarina that are sparsely populated and ungauged. Rural areas had significant contributions to the flood event and as a result were considered by stakeholders for flood control measures, including new reservoirs and upland vegetation management. Participatory modeling workshops with the stakeholders revealed a disconnect between urban and rural populations in regard to understanding the hydrologic conditions of the flood event and the effectiveness of existing and potential flood control measures. Despite these challenges, the use of the distributed flood forecasts developed within this participatory framework facilitated building consensus among diverse stakeholders and exploring alternative futures in the basin.

  14. Towards a whole-network risk assessment for railway bridge failures caused by scour during flood events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lamb Rob

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Localised erosion (scour during flood flow conditions can lead to costly damage or catastrophic failure of bridges, and in some cases loss of life or significant disruption to transport networks. Here, we take a broad scale view to assess risk associated with bridge scour during flood events over an entire infrastructure network, illustrating the analysis with data from the British railways. There have been 54 recorded events since 1846 in which scour led to the failure of railway bridges in Britain. These events tended to occur during periods of extremely high river flow, although there is uncertainty about the precise conditions under which failures occur, which motivates a probabilistic analysis of the failure events. We show how data from the historical bridge failures, combined with hydrological analysis, have been used to construct fragility curves that quantify the conditional probability of bridge failure as a function of river flow, accompanied by estimates of the associated uncertainty. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a national, spatial joint probability model for extremes in river flows. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event, and provide an empirical basis for further broad-scale network risk analysis.

  15. Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, Andra J; Mann, Michael E; Emanuel, Kerry A; Kopp, Robert E; Lin, Ning; Alley, Richard B; Horton, Benjamin P; DeConto, Robert M; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Pollard, David

    2017-11-07

    The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  16. The 2014 coral bleaching and freshwater flood events in Kāneʻohe Bay, Hawaiʻi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jokiel, Paul L.; Rodgers, Kuʻulei S.

    2015-01-01

    Until recently, subtropical Hawaiʻi escaped the major bleaching events that have devastated many tropical regions, but the continued increases in global long-term mean temperatures and the apparent ending of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cool phase have increased the risk of bleaching events. Climate models and observations predict that bleaching in Hawaiʻi will occur with increasing frequency and increasing severity over future decades. A freshwater “kill” event occurred during July 2014 in the northern part of Kāneʻohe Bay that reduced coral cover by 22.5% in the area directly impacted by flooding. A subsequent major bleaching event during September 2014 caused extensive coral bleaching and mortality throughout the bay and further reduced coral cover in the freshwater kill area by 60.0%. The high temperature bleaching event only caused a 1.0% reduction in live coral throughout the portion of the bay not directly impacted by the freshwater event. Thus, the combined impact of the low salinity event and the thermal bleaching event appears to be more than simply additive. The temperature regime during the September 2014 bleaching event was analogous in duration and intensity to that of the large bleaching event that occurred previously during August 1996, but resulted in a much larger area of bleaching and coral mortality. Apparently seasonal timing as well as duration and magnitude of heating is important. Coral spawning in the dominant coral species occurs early in the summer, so reservoirs of stored lipid in the corals had been depleted by spawning prior to the September 2014 event. Warm months above 27 °C result in lower coral growth and presumably could further decrease lipid reserves, leading to a bleaching event that was more severe than would have happened if the high temperatures occurred earlier in the summer. Hawaiian reef corals decrease skeletal growth at temperatures above 27 °C, so perhaps the “stress period” actually started long

  17. The 2014 coral bleaching and freshwater flood events in Kāneʻohe Bay, Hawaiʻi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keisha D. Bahr

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Until recently, subtropical Hawaiʻi escaped the major bleaching events that have devastated many tropical regions, but the continued increases in global long-term mean temperatures and the apparent ending of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO cool phase have increased the risk of bleaching events. Climate models and observations predict that bleaching in Hawaiʻi will occur with increasing frequency and increasing severity over future decades. A freshwater “kill” event occurred during July 2014 in the northern part of Kāneʻohe Bay that reduced coral cover by 22.5% in the area directly impacted by flooding. A subsequent major bleaching event during September 2014 caused extensive coral bleaching and mortality throughout the bay and further reduced coral cover in the freshwater kill area by 60.0%. The high temperature bleaching event only caused a 1.0% reduction in live coral throughout the portion of the bay not directly impacted by the freshwater event. Thus, the combined impact of the low salinity event and the thermal bleaching event appears to be more than simply additive. The temperature regime during the September 2014 bleaching event was analogous in duration and intensity to that of the large bleaching event that occurred previously during August 1996, but resulted in a much larger area of bleaching and coral mortality. Apparently seasonal timing as well as duration and magnitude of heating is important. Coral spawning in the dominant coral species occurs early in the summer, so reservoirs of stored lipid in the corals had been depleted by spawning prior to the September 2014 event. Warm months above 27 °C result in lower coral growth and presumably could further decrease lipid reserves, leading to a bleaching event that was more severe than would have happened if the high temperatures occurred earlier in the summer. Hawaiian reef corals decrease skeletal growth at temperatures above 27 °C, so perhaps the “stress period

  18. Global Warming Impact: Flood Events, Wet-Dry Conditions and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agriculture is weather-dependent so a significant alteration in the world climate would cause lot of changes in agricultural practice and agricultural productivity in the world. For man to feed himself adequately man must adjust his food production activities in line with the changes in the weather and climate. This paper ...

  19. Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Skougaard Kaspersen

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984 and present-day (2014 urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984–2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. In addition, two different assumptions are examined with regards to the development of the capacity of the urban drainage system in response to urban development and climate change. In the stationary approach, the capacity

  20. Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skougaard Kaspersen, Per; Høegh Ravn, Nanna; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik; Drews, Martin

    2017-08-01

    The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984) and present-day (2014) urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984-2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. In addition, two different assumptions are examined with regards to the development of the capacity of the urban drainage system in response to urban development and climate change. In the stationary approach, the capacity resembles present

  1. Characterizing Drought and Flood Events over the Yangtze River Basin Using the HUST-Grace2016 Solution and Ancillary Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Zhou

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Accurate terrestrial water storage (TWS estimation is important to evaluate the situation of the water resources over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB. This study exploits the TWS observation from the new temporal gravity field model, HUST-Grace2016 (Huazhong University of Science and Technology, which is developed by a new low-frequency noise processing strategy. A novel GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment post-processing approach is proposed to enhance the quality of the TWS estimate, and the improved TWS is used to characterize the drought and flood events over the YRB. The HUST-Grace2016-derived TWS presents good agreement with the CSR (Center for Space Research mascon solution as well as the PCR-GLOBWB (PCRaster Global Water Balance hydrological model. Particularly, our solution provides remarkable performance in identifying the extreme climate events e.g., flood and drought over the YRB and its sub-basins. The comparison between GRACE-derived TWS variations and the MODIS-derived (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer inundated area variations is then conducted. The analysis demonstrates that the terrestrial reflectance data can provide an alternative way of cross-comparing and validating TWS information in Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake, with a correlation coefficient of 0.77 and 0.70, respectively. In contrast, the correlation is only 0.10 for Tai Lake, indicating the limitation of cross-comparison between MODIS and GRACE data. In addition, for the first time, the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research vertical velocity data is incorporated with GRACE TWS in the exploration of the climate-induced hydrological activities. The good agreement between non-seasonal NCEP/NCAR vertical velocities and non-seasonal GRACE TWSs is found in flood years (2005, 2010, 2012 and 2016 and drought years (2006, 2011 and 2013. The evidence shown in this study may contribute to the

  2. Impacts of the 2016 outburst flood on the Bhote Koshi River valley, central Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Kristen; Andermann, Christoff; Gimbert, Florent; Hovius, Niels; Adhikari, Basanta

    2017-04-01

    The central Nepal Himalaya is a region of rapid erosion where fluvial processes are largely driven by the annual Indian Summer Monsoon, which delivers up to several meters of precipitation each year. However, the rivers in this region are also subject to rare catastrophic floods caused by the sudden failure of landslide or moraine dams. Because these floods happen rarely, it has been difficult to isolate their impact on the rivers and adjacent hillslopes, and their importance for the long-term evolution of Himalayan rivers is poorly constrained. On the 5th of July, 2016, the Bhote Koshi River in central Nepal was hit by a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). The flood passed through a seismic and hydrological observatory installed along the river in June 2015, and we have used the resulting data to constrain the timing, duration, and bedload transport properties of the outburst flood. The impact of the flood on the river can be further observed with hourly time-lapse photographs, daily measurements of suspended sediment load, repeat lidar surveys, and satellite imagery. Overall, our observatory data span two monsoon seasons, allowing us to evaluate the impacts of the outburst flood relative to the annual monsoon flood. The outburst flood affected the river on several timescales. In the short term, it transported large amounts of coarse sediment and restructured the river bed during the hours of the flood pulse itself. Over intermediate timescales it resulted in elevated bedload and suspended load transport for several weeks following the flood. Over longer timescales the flood undercut and destabilized the river banks and hillslopes in a number of locations, leading to bank collapses, slumps, and landslides. We map changes in the channel and associated mass wasting using rapidEye imagery from Oct. 2015 and Oct. 2016. We also use repeat terrestrial lidar scans to quantify the magnitude of change in multiple locations along the river channel and to measure bank

  3. Impact of altered land use on urban hydrology and strategic management practices on flooding problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper describes the impact of altered land use on urban flooding in Northwest Indiana over a 10-year time span between 1992 and 2001. The studied watershed, Great Calumet Basin, is located on the south shore of Lake Michigan, which is well known as a highly industrialized area. The flood peaks ...

  4. Real-time forecasts of flood hazard and impact: some UK experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cole Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Major UK floods over the last decade have motivated significant technological and scientific advances in operational flood forecasting and warning. New joint forecasting centres between the national hydrological and meteorological operating agencies have been formed that issue a daily, national Flood Guidance Statement (FGS to the emergency response community. The FGS is based on a Flood Risk Matrix approach that is a function of potential impact severity and likelihood. It has driven an increased demand for robust, accurate and timely forecast and alert information on fluvial and surface water flooding along with impact assessments. The Grid-to-Grid (G2G distributed hydrological model has been employed across Britain at a 1km resolution to support the FGS. Novel methods for linking dynamic gridded estimates of river flow and surface runoff with more detailed offline flood risk maps have been developed to obtain real-time probabilistic forecasts of potential impacts, leading to operational trials. Examples of the national-scale G2G application are provided along with case studies of forecast flood impact from (i an operational Surface Water Flooding (SWF trial during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, (ii SWF developments under the Natural Hazards Partnership over England & Wales, and (iii fluvial applications in Scotland.

  5. Evaluating resilience of DNP3-controlled SCADA systems against event buffer flooding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Guanhua [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nicol, David M [UNIV OF IL; Jin, Dong [UNIV OF IL

    2010-12-16

    The DNP3 protocol is widely used in SCADA systems (particularly electrical power) as a means of communicating observed sensor state information back to a control center. Typical architectures using DNP3 have a two level hierarchy, where a specialized data aggregator device receives observed state from devices within a local region, and the control center collects the aggregated state from the data aggregator. The DNP3 communication between control center and data aggregator is asynchronous with the DNP3 communication between data aggregator and relays; this leads to the possibility of completely filling a data aggregator's buffer of pending events, when a relay is compromised or spoofed and sends overly many (false) events to the data aggregator. This paper investigates how a real-world SCADA device responds to event buffer flooding. A Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC) model is developed for understanding this. The DTMC model is validated by a Moebius simulation model and data collected on real SCADA testbed.

  6. A climate-based multivariate extreme emulator of met-ocean-hydrological events for coastal flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camus, Paula; Rueda, Ana; Mendez, Fernando J.; Tomas, Antonio; Del Jesus, Manuel; Losada, Iñigo J.

    2015-04-01

    Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are useful to analyze large-scale climate variability (long-term historical periods, future climate projections). However, applications such as coastal flood modeling require climate information at finer scale. Besides, flooding events depend on multiple climate conditions: waves, surge levels from the open-ocean and river discharge caused by precipitation. Therefore, a multivariate statistical downscaling approach is adopted to reproduce relationships between variables and due to its low computational cost. The proposed method can be considered as a hybrid approach which combines a probabilistic weather type downscaling model with a stochastic weather generator component. Predictand distributions are reproduced modeling the relationship with AOGCM predictors based on a physical division in weather types (Camus et al., 2012). The multivariate dependence structure of the predictand (extreme events) is introduced linking the independent marginal distributions of the variables by a probabilistic copula regression (Ben Ayala et al., 2014). This hybrid approach is applied for the downscaling of AOGCM data to daily precipitation and maximum significant wave height and storm-surge in different locations along the Spanish coast. Reanalysis data is used to assess the proposed method. A commonly predictor for the three variables involved is classified using a regression-guided clustering algorithm. The most appropriate statistical model (general extreme value distribution, pareto distribution) for daily conditions is fitted. Stochastic simulation of the present climate is performed obtaining the set of hydraulic boundary conditions needed for high resolution coastal flood modeling. References: Camus, P., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Izaguirre, C., Espejo, A., Cánovas, V., Pérez, J., Rueda, A., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2014b). A weather-type statistical downscaling framework for ocean wave climate. Journal of

  7. The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France: hydrological analyses, inundation mapping and impact estimations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payrastre, Olivier; Bourgin, François; Lebouc, Laurent; Le Bihan, Guillaume; Gaume, Eric

    2017-04-01

    The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France caused more than twenty fatalities, high damages and large economic losses in high density urban areas of the Mediterranean coast, including the cities of Mandelieu-La Napoule, Cannes and Antibes. Following a post event survey and preliminary analyses conducted within the framework of the Hymex project, we set up an entire simulation chain at the regional scale to better understand this outstanding event. Rainfall-runoff simulations, inundation mapping and a first estimation of the impacts are conducted following the approach developed and successfully applied for two large flash-flood events in two different French regions (Gard in 2002 and Var in 2010) by Le Bihan (2016). A distributed rainfall-runoff model applied at high resolution for the whole area - including numerous small ungauged basins - is used to feed a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method) applied along the river network - including small tributaries. Estimation of the impacts is then performed based on the delineation of the flooded areas and geographic databases identifying buildings and population at risk.

  8. Lessons learnt from past Flash Floods and Debris Flow events to propose future strategies on risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabello, Angels; Velasco, Marc; Escaler, Isabel

    2010-05-01

    Floods, including flash floods and debris flow events, are one of the most important hazards in Europe regarding both economic and life loss. Moreover, changes in precipitation patterns and intensity are very likely to increase due to the observed and predicted global warming, rising the risk in areas that are already vulnerable to floods. Therefore, it is very important to carry out new strategies to improve flood protection, but it is also crucial to take into account historical data to identify high risk areas. The main objective of this paper is to show a comparative analysis of the flood risk management information compiled in four test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d'Anduze and Linth basins) from three different European countries (Spain, France and Switzerland) and to identify which are the lessons learnt from their past experiences in order to propose future strategies on risk management. This work is part of the EU 7th FP project IMPRINTS which aims at reducing loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management of flash flood and debris flow (FF & DF) events. The methodology followed includes the following steps: o Specific survey on the effectivity of the implemented emergency plans and risk management procedures sent to the test-bed basin authorities that participate in the project o Analysis of the answers from the questionnaire and further research on their methodologies for risk evaluation o Compilation of available follow-up studies carried out after major flood events in the four test-bed basins analyzed o Collection of the lessons learnt through a comparative analysis of the previous information o Recommendations for future strategies on risk management based on lessons learnt and management gaps detected through the process As the Floods Directive (FD) already states, the flood risks associated to FF & DF events should be assessed through the elaboration of Flood Risk

  9. Accessibility assessment of Houston's roadway network during Harvey through integration of observed flood impacts and hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidaris, I.; Gori, A.; Panakkal, P.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

    2017-12-01

    The record-breaking rainfall produced over the Houston region by Hurricane Harvey resulted in catastrophic and unprecedented impacts on the region's infrastructure. Notably, Houston's transportation network was crippled, with almost every major highway flooded during the five-day event. Entire neighborhoods and subdivisions were inundated, rendering them completely inaccessible to rescue crews and emergency services. Harvey has tragically highlighted the vulnerability of major thoroughfares, as well as neighborhood roads, to severe inundation during extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, it has emphasized the need for detailed accessibility characterization of road networks under extreme event scenarios in order to determine which areas of the city are most vulnerable. This analysis assesses and tracks the accessibility of Houston's major highways during Harvey's evolution by utilizing road flood/closure data from the Texas DOT. In the absence of flooded/closure data for local roads, a hybrid approach is adopted that utilizes a physics-based hydrologic model to produce high-resolution inundation estimates for selected urban watersheds in the Houston area. In particular, hydrologic output in the form of inundation depths is used to estimate the operability of local roads. Ultimately, integration of hydrologic-based estimation of road conditions with observed data from DOT supports a network accessibility analysis of selected urban neighborhoods. This accessibility analysis can identify operable routes for emergency response (rescue crews, medical services, etc.) during the storm event.

  10. A coupled hydrological-hydraulic flood inundation model calibrated using post-event measurements and integrated uncertainty analysis in a poorly gauged Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Colin, Francois

    2017-04-01

    Developing flood inundation maps of defined exceedance probabilities is required to provide information on the flood hazard and the associated risk. A methodology has been developed to model flood inundation in poorly gauged basins, where reliable information on the hydrological characteristics of floods are uncertain and partially captured by the traditional rain-gauge networks. Flood inundation is performed through coupling a hydrological rainfall-runoff (RR) model (HEC-HMS) with a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS). The RR model is calibrated against the January 2013 flood event in the Awali River basin, Lebanon (300 km2), whose flood peak discharge was estimated by post-event measurements. The resulting flows of the RR model are defined as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model, which is run to generate the corresponding water surface profiles and calibrated against 20 post-event surveyed cross sections after the January-2013 flood event. An uncertainty analysis is performed to assess the results of the models. Consequently, the coupled flood inundation model is simulated with design storms and flood inundation maps are generated of defined exceedance probabilities. The peak discharges estimated by the simulated RR model were in close agreement with the results from different empirical and statistical methods. This methodology can be extended to other poorly gauged basins facing common stage-gauge failure or characterized by floods with a stage exceeding the gauge measurement level, or higher than that defined by the rating curve.

  11. Towards a Flood Severity Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettner, A.; Chong, A.; Prades, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Muir, S.; Amparore, A.; Slayback, D. A.; Poungprom, R.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide, affecting 21 million people every year. In the immediate moments following a flood event, humanitarian actors like the World Food Program need to make rapid decisions ( 72 hrs) on how to prioritize affected areas impacted by such an event. For other natural disasters like hurricanes/cyclones and earthquakes, there are industry-recognized standards on how the impacted areas are to be classified. Shake maps, quantifying peak ground motion, from for example the US Geological Survey are widely used for assessing earthquakes. Similarly, cyclones are tracked by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) who release storm nodes and tracks (forecasted and actual), with wind buffers and classify the event according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. For floods, the community is usually able to acquire unclassified data of the flood extent as identified from satellite imagery. Most often no water discharge hydrograph is available to classify the event into recurrence intervals simply because there is no gauging station, or the gauging station was unable to record the maximum discharge due to overtopping or flood damage. So, the question remains: How do we methodically turn a flooded area into classified areas of different gradations of impact? Here, we present a first approach towards developing a global applicable flood severity index. The flood severity index is set up such that it considers relatively easily obtainable physical parameters in a short period of time like: flood frequency (relating the current flood to historical events) and magnitude, as well as land cover, slope, and where available pre-event simulated flood depth. The scale includes categories ranging from very minor flooding to catastrophic flooding. We test and evaluate the postulated classification scheme against a set of past flood events. Once a severity category is determined, socio

  12. Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frauenfelder, Regula; Solheim, Anders; Isaksen, Ketil; Romstad, Bård; Dyrrdal, Anita V.; Ekseth, Kristine H. H.; Gangstø Skaland, Reidun; Harbitz, Alf; Harbitz, Carl B.; Haugen, Jan E.; Hygen, Hans O.; Haakenstad, Hilde; Jaedicke, Christian; Jónsson, Árni; Klæboe, Ronny; Ludvigsen, Johanna; Meyer, Nele K.; Rauken, Trude; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Kjetil

    2016-04-01

    With the latest results on expected future increase in air temperature and precipitation changes reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the climate robustness of important infrastructure is of raising concern in Norway, as well as in the rest of Europe. Economic consequences of natural disasters have increased considerably since 1950. In addition to the effect of demographic changes such as population growth, urbanization and more and more concentration of valuable assets, this increase is also related to an augmenting frequency of extreme events, such as storms, flooding, drought, and landslides. This change is also observable in Norway, where the increased frequency of strong precipitation has led to frequent flooding and landslide events during the last 20 years. A number of studies show that climate change causes an increase in both frequency and intensity of several types of extreme weather, especially when it comes to precipitation. Such extreme weather events greatly affect the transport infrastructure, with numerous and long closures of roads and railroads, in addition to damage and repair costs. Frequent closures of railroad and roads lead to delay or failure in delivery of goods, which again may lead to a loss of customers and/or - eventually - markets. Much of the Norwegian transport infrastructure is more than 50 years old and therefore not adequately dimensioned, even for present climatic conditions. In order to assess these problems and challenges posed to the Norwegian transport infrastructure from present-day and future extreme weather events, the project "Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk)" was performed under the research Council of Norway program 'NORKLIMA', between 2009 and 2013. The main results of the project are: - Moderate to strong precipitation events have become more frequent and more intense in Norway over the last 50 years, and this trend continues throughout the 21st

  13. Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    KAUST Repository

    Deng, Liping; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Evans, Jason P.; Kucera, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite

  14. Moisture Sources and Large-Scale Dynamics Associated with a Flash Flood Event in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Trigo, Isabel F.; María Durán-Quesada, Ana; Nieto, Raquel; Gimeno, Luis

    2013-04-01

    On 18-19 November 1983, the region of Lisbon, in Portugal, was affected by a heavy precipitation event, soon followed by flash flooding, urban inundations and a burst of landslides around Lisbon [Zêzere et al., 2005] causing considerable infrastructure damage and human fatalities. With a total of 95.6 mm in 24 h observed at the longest serving station in Portugal (Lisbon's Dom Luiz Observatory), this was the rainiest day during the twentieth century and one of the rainiest registered since 1864. We found that this event was triggered by the transport of tropical and subtropical moisture associated with an extratropical cyclone. The low favored a large stream of (sub) tropical air that extended over more than 10° of latitude and across the North Atlantic Ocean, carrying a large amount of moisture originally from lower latitudes, a so-called atmospheric river. The stationary position of the jet stream along the East Atlantic Ocean through Iberia caused a strong enhancement of the precipitation associated with the moist air. A Lagrangian analysis of the transport of moisture in the Euro-Atlantic sector was performed based on the methodology developed by Stohl and James [2004, 2005], using the FLEXPART model. This Lagrangian methodology was employed to show that the evaporative sources for the precipitation falling over the area of Lisbon were distributed over large sectors of the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic Ocean and included a significant contribution from the (sub) tropics. This study [Liberato et al., 2012] aims to provide an example of the application of distinct Lagrangian techniques to achieve a better understanding of the relation between extratropical cyclones and the occurrence of a heavy precipitation event on the Iberian Peninsula. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) Programme and by national funds

  15. Landsliding and flooding event triggered by heavy rains in the Rize region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalcin, Ali; Kavurmaci, M. Murat

    2013-04-01

    Rize province has been significantly damaged by frequent landslides and floods which are caused by severe rainfalls and result in many casualties. The area is prone to landslides because of the climate conditions, geologic, and land cover characteristics of the region. The most recent landslide occurred on August 26, 2010 in Gundogdu town. The landslides have caused large numbers of casualties and huge economic losses in the region. Thirteen people died, twenty houses collapsed, more than a hundred houses damaged, and one hundred fifty vehicles were damaged in the Gundogdu landslide. Flood event is often seen in the region of Rize, due to continuous rainfall. Floods cause huge loss of life and property in this region. Rainfall is the most frequent landslide-triggering factor in East Black Sea region, Turkey, especially Rize region. Rize is the rainiest city of Turkey. Total annual precipitation is over 2300 mm, and precipitation is equally distributed in each month. However, in August 26, 166.5 mm precipitation rained within 24 hours in the region and this rainstorm caused great damage. The intensity rainfall periods were become as an indicator of landslide activity. It is very important that the presence of suitable lithologic units for occurring landslides. There are appropriate materials to contributed constitution of landslides in the study area; completely weathered dacite. In addition, intensity land cover types as tea plantations have been blocked surface flows and rainfall is able to quickly penetrate into the soil through open tension cracks that appear in the landslide head and in stretching zones. According to the results of the analysis, the study area has been overlaid tea garden 70 % percentage approximately. Furthermore, the landslide risks have increased by devastation of land cover in this region. In this region, over-steepened slopes, slope saturation in areas of heavy rainfall, and removal of slope vegetation can also increase landslide potential

  16. Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogger, M.; Agnoletti, M.; Alaoui, A.; Bathurst, J.C.; Bodner, G.; Borga, M.; Chaplot, Vincent; Gallart, F.; Glatzel, G.; Hall, J.; Holden, J.; Holko, L.; Horn, R.; Kiss, A.; Kohnová, S.; Leitinger, G.; Lennartz, B.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.; Peth, S.; Plavcová, L.; Quinton, John N.; Robinson, Matthew R.; Salinas, J.L.; Santoro, A.; Szolgay, J.; Tron, S.; Akker, van den J.J.H.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2017-01-01

    Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes

  17. Impact of external events on site evaluation: a probabilistic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaccarino, E.; Giuliani, P.; Zaffiro, C.

    1975-01-01

    A probabilistic method is proposed for definition of the reference external events of nuclear sites. The external events taken into account are earthquakes, floods and tornadoes. On the basis of the available historical data for each event it is possible to perform statistical analyses to determine the probability of occurrence on site of events of given characteristics. For earthquakes, the method of analysis takes into consideration both the annual frequency of seismic events in Italy and the probabilistic distribution of areas stricken by each event. For floods, the methods of analysis of hydrological data and the basic criteria for the determination of design events are discussed and the general lines of the hydraulic analysis of a nuclear site are shown. For tornadoes, the statistical analysis has been performed for the events which occurred in Italy during the last 40 years; these events have been classified according to an empirical intensity scale. The probability of each reference event should be a function of the potential radiological damage associated with the particular type of plant which must be installed on the site. Thus the reference event could be chosen such that for the whole of the national territory the risk for safety and environmental protection is the same. (author)

  18. Simulating a 40-year flood event climatology of Australia with a view to ocean-land teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Andreadis, Konstantinos; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Bates, Paul

    2015-04-01

    We develop, for the first time, a proof-of-concept version for a high-resolution global flood inundation model to generate a flood inundation climatology of the past 40 years (1973-2012) for the entire Australian continent at a native 1 km resolution. The objectives of our study includes (1) deriving an inundation climatology for a continent (Australia) as a demonstrator case to understand the requirements for expanding globally; (2) developing a test bed to assess the potential and value of current and future satellite missions (GRACE, SMAP, ICESat-2, AMSR-2, Sentinels and SWOT) in flood monitoring; and (3) answering science questions such as the linking of inundation to ocean circulation teleconnections. We employ the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model to generate a flood inundation climatology. The model will be built from freely available SRTM-derived data (channel widths, bank heights and floodplain topography corrected for vegetation canopy using ICESat canopy heights). Lakes and reservoirs are represented and channel hydraulics are resolved using actual channel data with bathymetry inferred from hydraulic geometry. Simulations are run with gauged flows and floodplain inundation climatology are compared to observations from GRACE, flood maps from Landsat, SAR, and MODIS. Simulations have been completed for the entire Australian continent. Additionally, changes in flood inundation have been correlated with indices related to global ocean circulation, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation index. We will produce data layers on flood event climatology and other derived (default) products from the proposed model including channel and floodplain depths, flow direction, velocity vectors, floodplain water volume, shoreline extent and flooded area. These data layers will be in the form of simple vector and raster formats. Since outputs will be large in size we propose to upload them onto Google Earth under the GEE API license.

  19. Impact of modelling scale on probabilistic flood risk assessment: the Malawi case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudari Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the early months of 2015, destructive floods hit Malawi, causing deaths and economic losses. Flood risk assessment outcomes can be used to increase scientific-supported awareness of risk. The recent increase in availability of high resolution data such as TanDEM-X at 12m resolution makes possible the use of detailed physical based flood hazard models in risk assessment. Nonetheless the scale of hazard modelling still remains an issue, which requires a compromise between level of detail and computational efforts. This work presents two different approaches on hazard modelling. Both methods rely on 32-years of numeric weather re-analysis and rainfall-runoff transformation through a fully distributed WFLOW-type hydrological model. The first method, applied at national scale, uses fast post-processing routines, which estimate flood water depth at a resolution of about 1×1km. The second method applies a full 2D hydraulic model to propagate water discharge into the flood plains and best suites for small areas where assets are concentrated. At the 12m resolution, three hot spots with a model area of approximately 10×10 km are analysed. Flood hazard maps obtained with both approaches are combined with flood impact models at the same resolution to generate indicators for flood risk. A quantitative comparison of the two approaches is presented in order to show the effects of modelling scale on both hazard and impact losses.

  20. Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Zhou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China. Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID, driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5. The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing

  1. Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

    2018-01-01

    As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has

  2. Patterns of forest succession and impacts of flood in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Y.; Wu, Y.; Bartell, S.M.; Cosgriff, R.

    2009-01-01

    The widespread loss of oak-hickory forests and the impacts of flood have been major issues of ecological interest concerning forest succession in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. The data analysis from two comprehensive field surveys indicated that Quercus was one of the dominant genera in the UMR floodplain ecosystem prior to the 1993 flood and constituted 14% of the total number of trees and 28% of the total basal area. During the post-flood recovery period through 2006, Quercus demonstrated slower recovery rates in both the number of trees (4%) and basal area (17%). In the same period, Carya recovered greatly from the 1993 flood in terms of the number of trees (11%) and basal area (2%), compared to its minor status before the flood. Further analyses suggested that different species responded to the 1993 flood with varying tolerance and different succession strategies. In this study, the relation of flood-caused mortality rates and DBH, fm(d), can be expressed in negative exponential functions for each species. The results of this research also indicate that the growth functions are different for each species and might also be different between pre- and post-flood time periods. These functions indicate different survival strategies and emergent properties in responding to flood impacts. This research enhances our understanding of forest succession patterns in space and time in the UPR floodplain. And such understanding might be used to predict long-term impacts of floods on UMR floodplain forest dynamics in support of management and restoration. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

  3. The relevance of flood hazards and impacts in Turkey: What can be learned from different disaster loss databases?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koc, Gamze; Thieken, Annegret H.

    2016-04-01

    Despite technological development, better data and considerable efforts to reduce the impacts of natural hazards over the last two decades, natural disasters inflicted losses have caused enormous human and economic damages in Turkey. In particular earthquakes and flooding have caused enormous human and economic losses that occasionally amounted to 3 to 4% of the gross national product of Turkey (Genç, 2007). While there is a large body of literature on earthquake hazards and risks in Turkey, comparatively little is known about flood hazards and risks. Therefore, this study is aimed at investigating flood patterns, intensities and impacts, also providing an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses by analysing different databases on disaster losses throughout Turkey. As input for more detailed event analyses, an additional aim is to retrieve the most severe flood events in the period between 1960 and 2014 from the databases. In general, data on disaster impacts are scarce in comparison to other scientific fields in natural hazard research, although the lack of reliable, consistent and comparable data is seen as a major obstacle for effective and long-term loss prevention. Currently, only a few data sets, especially the emergency events database EM-DAT (www.emdat.be) hosted and maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) since 1988, are publicly accessible and have become widely used to describe trends in disaster losses. However, loss data are subjected to various biases (Gall et al. 2009). Since Turkey is in the favourable position of having a distinct national disaster database since 2009, i.e. the Turkey Disaster Data Base (TABB), there is the unique opportunity to investigate flood impacts in Turkey in more detail as well as to identify biases and underlying reasons for mismatches with EM-DAT. To compare these two databases, the events of the two databases were reclassified by using the IRDR peril

  4. Assessment of the health impacts of the 2011 summer floods in Brisbane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alderman, Katarzyna; Turner, Lyle R; Tong, Shilu

    2013-08-01

    To assess the effects of the 2011 floods in Brisbane, Australia, on residents' physical and mental health. Residents who had been affected by the floods completed a community-based survey that examined the direct impact of flooding on households and their perceived physical and mental health. Outcome variables included overall and respiratory health and mental health outcomes related to psychological distress, sleep quality, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between flooding and perceived health outcome variables, adjusted for current health status and sociodemographic factors. Residents whose households were directly affected by flooding were more likely to report poor overall (Odds Ratio [OR] 5.3; 95% CI, 2.8-10.1) and respiratory (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.1-4.6) health, psychological distress (OR 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.5), poor sleep quality (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.4), and probable PTSD (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.5). The 2011 Brisbane floods had significant impact on the physical and psychosocial health of residents. Improved support strategies may need to be integrated into existing disaster management programs to reduce flood-related health impacts, particularly those related to mental health.

  5. Using HAZUS-MH for modelling past coastal flooding events in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, T.; Charvet, I.; Gunasekera, R.

    2012-04-01

    In regions at risk from natural hazards, the ability to pre-determine the vulnerability and exposure of buildings (residential, commercial, industrial and government) from multiple hazard scenarios, allows policy makers and businesses to put forward appropriate policies, planning and intervention methods to mitigate the financial impact. For this purpose, a number of catastrophe models have been developed to provide the decision makers with quantitative risk assessments based on science and engineering knowledge. One of the most sophisticated open source models currently available is HAZUS-MH. The software is a powerful tool for analysing potential losses from floods, hurricane winds, and earthquakes. It was initially designed by FEMA to work with US datasets and has proven to be a great resource for disaster management at both national and local level in order to plan and increase the awareness of the recovery process after a natural disaster. Methodologies have been introduced to export the HAZUS-MH model for global applications. However, currently the international community have been slow to act on this technology breakthrough. The applications of this project will focus on adapting the HAZUS-HM model to provide a reliable vulnerability assessment of Japan's building stock from tsunami flooding. A review of the different methodologies will be carried out and presented as guidance on the best practice. The numerical assessment reports will be compared to real scenarios based on field observations, financial bulletins and government reports. A sensitivity analysis will be carried out on the generation of bespoke datasets based on the quality and density of the available regional data. These results will be compared against results using proxy US datasets. In addition, the significance of regional building standards and practices will be incorporated into the model through the development of new damage functions. The level of confidence and sensitivity (building

  6. Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruckert, Kelsey L; Oddo, Perry C; Keller, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

  7. Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelsey L Ruckert

    Full Text Available Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90% estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability. Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

  8. Application of STORMTOOLS's simplified flood inundation model with sea level rise to assess impacts to RI coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaulding, M. L.

    2015-12-01

    The vision for STORMTOOLS is to provide access to a suite of coastal planning tools (numerical models et al), available as a web service, that allows wide spread accessibly and applicability at high resolution for user selected coastal areas of interest. The first product developed under this framework were flood inundation maps, with and without sea level rise, for varying return periods for RI coastal waters. The flood mapping methodology is based on using the water level vs return periods at a primary NOAA water level gauging station and then spatially scaling the values, based on the predictions of high resolution, storm and wave simulations performed by Army Corp of Engineers, North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study (NACCS) for tropical and extratropical storms on an unstructured grid, to estimate inundation levels for varying return periods. The scaling for the RI application used Newport, RI water levels as the reference point. Predictions are provided for once in 25, 50, and 100 yr return periods (at the upper 95% confidence level), with sea level rises of 1, 2, 3, and 5 ft. Simulations have also been performed for historical hurricane events including 1938, Carol (1954), Bob (1991), and Sandy (2012) and nuisance flooding events with return periods of 1, 3, 5, and 10 yr. Access to the flooding maps is via a web based, map viewer that seamlessly covers all coastal waters of the state at one meter resolution. The GIS structure of the map viewer allows overlays of additional relevant data sets (roads and highways, wastewater treatment facilities, schools, hospitals, emergency evacuation routes, etc.) as desired by the user. The simplified flooding maps are publically available and are now being implemented for state and community resilience planning and vulnerability assessment activities in response to climate change impacts.

  9. Late Holocene environmental reconstructions and the implications on flood events, typhoon patterns, and agriculture activities in NE Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.-C.; Behling, H.; Lee, T.-Q.; Li, H.-C.; Huh, C.-A.; Shiau, L.-J.; Chang, Y.-P.

    2014-05-01

    In this study, we reconstructed the paleoenvironmental changes from a sediment archive of the floodplain lake in Ilan Plain of NE Taiwan on multi-decadal resolution for the last ca. 1900 years. On the basis of pollen and diatom records, we evaluated the record of past vegetation, floods, typhoons and agriculture activities of this area, which is sensitive to the hydrological conditions of the West Pacific. High sedimentation rates with low microfossil preservations reflected multiple flood events and humid climatic conditions during 100-1400 AD. A shortly interrupted dry phase can be found during 940-1010 AD. The driest phase corresponds to the Little Ice Age phase 1 (LIA1, 1400-1620 AD) with less disturbance by flood events, which enhanced the occurrence of wetlands (Cyperaceae) and diatom depositions. Humid phases with frequent typhoons are inferred by high percentages of Lagerstroemia and high ratios of planktonic/benthic diatoms, respectively, during 500-700 AD and Little Ice Age phase 2 (LIA2, 1630-1850 AD). The occurrences of cultivated Poaceae (Oryza) during 1250-1300 AD and the last ~400 years, reflect agriculture activities, which seems to implicate strongly with the environmental stability. Finally, we found flood events which dominated during the El Niño-like stage, but dry events as well as frequent typhoon events happened during the La Niña-like stage. After comparing our results with the reconstructed proxy for tropical hydrological conditions, we suggested that the local hydrology in coastal East Asia were strongly affected by the typhoon-triggered heavy rainfalls which were influenced by the variation of global temperature, expansion of the Pacific warm pool and intensification of ENSO events.

  10. Determinants of property damage recovery time amongst households affected by an extreme flood event in Metro Manila, Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamil Paolo Francisco

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study identified the factors that influence household recovery following an extreme flood event, measured in terms of the length of time to repair, rebuild or replace damaged private property. Data was obtained through a survey of 400 households in Marikina City in Metro Manila, Philippines. Results from the empirical analysis indicated that household income, access to credit (borrowing, the use of a flood alarm system, access to safe shelter, membership in a community organisation, adoption of disaster-specific anticipatory measures and adoption of general preventive measures significantly reduced the time it took for affected households to recover from property damage. Evacuation, relief aid, type of housing, education, household size and frequency of flooding in the area did not have significant effects.

  11. Geostatistical screening of flood events in the groundwater levels of the diverted inner delta of the Danube River: implications for river bed clogging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trásy, Balázs; Garamhegyi, Tamás; Laczkó-Dobos, Péter; Kovács, József; Hatvani, István Gábor

    2018-04-01

    The efficient operation of shallow groundwater (SGW) monitoring networks is crucial to water supply, in-land water protection, agriculture and nature conservation. In the present study, the spatial representativity of such a monitoring network in an area that has been thoroughly impacted by anthropogenic activity (river diversion/damming) is assessed, namely the Szigetköz adjacent to the River Danube. The main aims were to assess the spatial representativity of the SGW monitoring network in different discharge scenarios, and investigate the directional characteristics of this representativity, i.e. establish whether geostatistical anisotropy is present, and investigate how this changes with flooding. After the subtraction of a spatial trend from the time series of 85 shallow groundwater monitoring wells tracking flood events from 2006, 2009 and 2013, variography was conducted on the residuals, and the degree of anisotropy was assessed to explore the spatial autocorrelation structure of the network. Since the raw data proved to be insufficient, an interpolated grid was derived, and the final results were scaled to be representative of the original raw data. It was found that during floods the main direction of the spatial variance of the shallow groundwater monitoring wells alters, from perpendicular to the river to parallel with it for over a period of about two week. However, witht the passing of the flood, this returns to its original orientation in 2 months. It is likely that this process is related first to the fast removal of clogged riverbed strata by the flood, then to their slower replacement. In addition, the study highlights the importance of assessing the direction of the spatial autocorrelation structure of shallow groundwater monitoring networks, especially if the aim is to derive interpolated maps for the further investigation or modeling of flow.

  12. Uni- and multi-variable modelling of flood losses: experiences gained from the Secchia river inundation event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Castellarin, Attilio

    2017-04-01

    Flood risk is function of flood hazard and vulnerability, therefore its accurate assessment depends on a reliable quantification of both factors. The scientific literature proposes a number of objective and reliable methods for assessing flood hazard, yet it highlights a limited understanding of the fundamental damage processes. Loss modelling is associated with large uncertainty which is, among other factors, due to a lack of standard procedures; for instance, flood losses are often estimated based on damage models derived in completely different contexts (i.e. different countries or geographical regions) without checking its applicability, or by considering only one explanatory variable (i.e. typically water depth). We consider the Secchia river flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee-breach caused the inundation of nearly 200 km2 in Northern Italy. In the aftermath of this event, local authorities collected flood loss data, together with additional information on affected private households and industrial activities (e.g. buildings surface and economic value, number of company's employees and others). Based on these data we implemented and compared a quadratic-regression damage function, with water depth as the only explanatory variable, and a multi-variable model that combines multiple regression trees and considers several explanatory variables (i.e. bagging decision trees). Our results show the importance of data collection revealing that (1) a simple quadratic regression damage function based on empirical data from the study area can be significantly more accurate than literature damage-models derived for a different context and (2) multi-variable modelling may outperform the uni-variable approach, yet it is more difficult to develop and apply due to a much higher demand of detailed data.

  13. Hydrodynamic Based Decision Making Framework for Impact Assessment of Extreme Storm Events on Coastal Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazari, R.; Miller, K.; Hurler, C.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal and inland flooding has been a problematic occurrence, specifically over the past century. Global warming has caused an 8 inch sea level rise since 1990, which made the coastal flood zone wider, deeper and more damaging. Additionally, riverine flooding is extremely damaging to the country's substructure and economy as well which causes river banks to overflow, inundating low-lying areas. New Jersey and New York are two areas at severe risk for flood hazard, sea level rise, land depletion and economic loss which are the main study area of this work. A decision making framework is being built to help mitigate the impacts of the environmental and economical dangers of storm surges, sea level rise, flashfloods and inland flooding. With vigorous research and the use of innovative hydrologic modeling software, this tool can be built and utilized to form resiliency for coastal communities. This will allow the individuals living in a coastal community to understand the details of climatic hazards in their area and risks associated to their communities. This tool will also suggest the best solution for the problem each community faces. Atlantic City and New York City has been modeled and compared using potential storm events and the outcomes have been analyzed. The tool offers all the possible solutions for the type of flooding that occurs. Green infrastructure such as rain gardens, detention basins and green roofs can be used as small scale solutions. Greater scale solutions such as removable flood barriers, concrete walls and height adjustable walls will also be displayed if that poses as the best solution. The results and benefits from the simulation and modeling techniques, will allow coastal communities to choose the most appropriate method for building a long lasting and sustainable resilience plan in the future.

  14. An attempt to estimate the economic value of the loss of human life due to landslide and flood events in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvati, Paola; Bianchi, Cinzia; Hussin, Haydar; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2013-04-01

    Landslide and flood events in Italy cause wide and severe damage to buildings and infrastructure, and are frequently involved in the loss of human life. The cost estimates of past natural disasters generally refer to the amount of public money used for the restoration of the direct damage, and most commonly do not account for all disaster impacts. Other cost components, including indirect losses, are difficult to quantify and, among these, the cost of human lives. The value of specific human life can be identified with the value of a statistical life (VLS), defined as the value that an individual places on a marginal change in their likelihood of death This is different from the value of an actual life. Based on information of fatal car accidents in Italy, we evaluate the cost that society suffers for the loss of life due to landslide and flood events. Using a catalogue of fatal landslide and flood events, for which information about gender and age of the fatalities is known, we determine the cost that society suffers for the loss of their life. For the purpose, we calculate the economic value in terms of the total income that the working-age population involved in the fatal events would have earned over the course of their life. For the computation, we use the pro-capita income calculated as the ratio between the GDP and the population value in Italy for each year, since 1980. Problems occur for children and retired people that we decided not to include in our estimates.

  15. An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

    2017-07-01

    The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

  16. Explanatory analysis of the relationship between atmospheric circulation and occurrence of flood generating events in a coastal city

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åström, Helena Lisa Alexandra; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of the occurrence of flood generating events in urban areas by analyzing the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation events, extreme sea water level events and their simultaneous occurrence......, respectively. To describe the atmospheric circulation we used the Lamb circulation type (LCT) classification and re-grouped it into Lamb circulation classes (LCC). The daily LCCs/LCTs were connected with rare precipitation and water level events in Aarhus, a Danish coastal city. Westerly and cyclonic LCCs (W......, C, SW, and NW) showed a significantly high occurrence of extreme precipitation. Similarly, for extreme water level events westerly LCCs (W and SW) showed a significantly high occurrence. Significantly low occurrence of extreme precipitation and water level events was obtained in easterly LCCs (NE, E...

  17. Estimating the proportion of groundwater recharge from flood events in relation to total annual recharge in a karst aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvory, N. Z.; Ronen, A.; Livshitz, Y.; Adar, E.; Kuznetsov, M.; Yakirevich, A.

    2017-12-01

    Sustainable groundwater production from karstic aquifers is primarily dictated by its recharge rate. Therefore, in order to limit over-exploitation, it is essential to accurately quantify groundwater recharge. Infiltration during erratic floods in karstic basins may contribute substantial amount to aquifer recharge. However, the complicated nature of karst systems, which are characterized in part by multiple springs, sinkholes, and losing/gaining streams, present a large obstacle to accurately assess the actual contribution of flood water to groundwater recharge. In this study, we aim to quantify the proportion of groundwater recharge during flood events in relation to the annual recharge for karst aquifers. The role of karst conduits on flash flood infiltration was examined during four flood and artificial runoff events in the Sorek creek near Jerusalem, Israel. The events were monitored in short time steps (four minutes). This high resolution analysis is essential to accurately estimating surface flow volumes, which are of particular importance in arid and semi-arid climate where ephemeral flows may provide a substantial contribution to the groundwater reservoirs. For the present investigation, we distinguished between direct infiltration, percolation through karst conduits and diffused infiltration, which is most affected by evapotranspiration. A water balance was then calculated for the 2014/15 hydrologic year using the Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). Simulations show that an additional 8% to 24% of the annual recharge volume is added from runoff losses along the creek that infiltrate through the karst system into the aquifer. The results improve the understanding of recharge processes and support the use of the proposed methodology for quantifying groundwater recharge.

  18. Exploitation of Documented Historical Floods for Achieving Better Flood Defense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slobodan Kolaković

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Establishing Base Flood Elevation for a stream network corresponding to a big catchment is feasible by interdisciplinary approach, involving stochastic hydrology, river hydraulics, and computer aided simulations. A numerical model calibrated by historical floods has been exploited in this study. The short presentation of the catchment of the Tisza River in this paper is followed by the overview of historical floods which hit the region in the documented period of 130 years. Several well documented historical floods provided opportunity for the calibration of the chosen numerical model. Once established, the model could be used for investigation of different extreme flood scenarios and to establish the Base Flood Elevation. The calibration has shown that the coefficient of friction in case of the Tisza River is dependent both on the actual water level and on the preceding flood events. The effect of flood plain maintenance as well as the activation of six potential detention ponds on flood mitigation has been examined. Furthermore, the expected maximum water levels have also been determined for the case if the ever observed biggest 1888 flood hit the region again. The investigated cases of flood superposition highlighted the impact of tributary Maros on flood mitigation along the Tisza River.

  19. 77 FR 71404 - Intent To Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Flood Risk Management Study...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-30

    ... Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Flood Risk Management Study for the Blanchard River Watershed... the subject Flood Risk Management Study. The Buffalo District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers... with the proposed Flood Risk Management Study in the Blanchard River Watershed including the...

  20. The Environmental Impact of Flooding on Transportation Land Use ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental problems of flooding on transportation land use manifest as a result of different land use activities of man to earn his living and his livelihood. Natural surfaces were replaced by more impermeable roads and concrete which have very low infiltration capacity, which have hydrological consequences of resulting ...

  1. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

    2001-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

  2. Flooding Simulation of Extreme Event on Barnegat Bay by High-Resolution Two Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.

    2017-12-01

    Barnegat Bay located on the east coast of New Jersey, United States and is separated from the Atlantic Ocean by the narrow Barnegat Peninsula which acts as a barrier island. The bay is fed by several rivers which empty through small estuaries along the inner shore. In terms of vulnerability from flooding, the Barnegat Peninsula is under the influence of both coastal storm surge and riverine flooding. Barnegat Bay was hit by Hurricane Sandy causing flood damages with extensive cross-island flow at many streets perpendicular to the shoreline. The objective of this work is to identify and quantify the sources of flooding using a two dimensional inland hydrodynamic model. The hydrodynamic model was forced by three observed coastal boundary conditions, and one hydrologic boundary condition from United States Geological Survey (USGS). The model reliability was evaluated with both FEMA spatial flooding extend and USGS High water marks. Simulated flooding extent showed good agreement with the reanalysis spatial inundation extents. Results offered important perspectives on the flow of the water into the bay, the velocity and the depth of the inundated areas. Using such information can enable emergency managers and decision makers identify evacuation and deploy flood defenses.

  3. Changes in the composition of organic matter from prodeltaic sediments after a large flood event (Po River, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesi, T.; Langone, L.; Goñi, M. A.; Miserocchi, S.; Bertasi, F.

    2008-04-01

    The Po River (Italy) experienced a 100-year flood in October 2000. Surface sediments (0-1 cm) from cross-shelf transects were collected in the Po prodelta area (Adriatic Sea) in December 2000, in order to describe the distribution of organic matter (OM) along the main sediment dispersal system immediately after the flood event. Stations were subsequently reoccupied in October 2001 and April 2002. This sampling program provided a special opportunity to characterize the initial surficial flood deposit and the evolution of its associated OM over the course of 2 years. CuO oxidation, elemental, δ 13C, Δ 14C, and grain-size analyses were carried out to characterize the source, age, and spatial variability of sedimentary OM. Statistical analysis (PERMANOVA) was then applied to investigate temporal changes in different portions of the Po prodelta area. Isotopic and biomarker data suggest that the sedimentary OM in the flood deposit was initially dominated by aged (Δ 14C Dec-00 = -298.7 ± 56.3‰), lignin-poor OM (Λ Dec-00 = 1.96 ± 0.33 mg/100 mg OC), adsorbed on the fine material (clay Dec-00 = 72.1 ± 4.8%) delivered by the flood. In the 2 years following the flood, post-depositional processes significantly increased the content of lignin (Λ Oct-01 = 2.19 ± 0.51 mg/100 mg OC; Λ Apr-02 = 2.61 ± 0.63 mg/100 mg OC); and coarse material (silt and sand), while decreasing the contributions from aged OC (Δ 14C Oct-01 = -255.7 ± 32.8‰; Δ 14C Apr-02 = -213.2 ± 30.4‰) and fine fraction (clay Oct-01 = 54.8 ± 9.5%; clay Apr-02 = 44.6 ± 13.3%). The major changes were observed in the northern and central portions of the prodelta.

  4. Late Holocene environmental reconstructions and their implications on flood events, typhoon, and agricultural activities in NE Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.-C.; Behling, H.; Lee, T.-Q.; Li, H.-C.; Huh, C.-A.; Shiau, L.-J.; Chang, Y.-P.

    2014-10-01

    We reconstructed paleoenvironmental changes from a sediment archive of a lake in the floodplain of the Ilan Plain of NE Taiwan on multi-decadal resolution for the last ca. 1900 years. On the basis of pollen and diatom records, we evaluated past floods, typhoons, and agricultural activities in this area which are sensitive to the hydrological conditions in the western Pacific. Considering the high sedimentation rates with low microfossil preservations in our sedimentary record, multiple flood events were. identified during the period AD 100-1400. During the Little Ice Age phase 1 (LIA 1 - AD 1400-1620), the abundant occurrences of wetland plant (Cyperaceae) and diatom frustules imply less flood events under stable climate conditions in this period. Between AD 500 and 700 and the Little Ice Age phase 2 (LIA 2 - AD 1630-1850), the frequent typhoons were inferred by coarse sediments and planktonic diatoms, which represented more dynamical climate conditions than in the LIA 1. By comparing our results with the reconstructed changes in tropical hydrological conditions, we suggested that the local hydrology in NE Taiwan is strongly influenced by typhoon-triggered heavy rainfalls, which could be influenced by the variation of global temperature, the expansion of the Pacific warm pool, and the intensification of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.

  5. 75 FR 58369 - Intent To Prepare a Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the North Branch Ecorse Creek, Flood...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-24

    ... Draft EIS will address potential environmental impacts of the construction, operation, and maintenance... Environmental Impact Statement for the North Branch Ecorse Creek, Flood Risk Management General Reevaluation... Notice of Intent (NOI) to prepare a Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for flood risk management...

  6. Climate change impacts and uncertainties in flood risk management: Examples from the North Sea Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence, D.; Graham, L.P.; Besten, J. Den; Andreasson, J.; Bergstroem, S.; Engen-Skaugen, T.; Foerland, E.; Groen, R.; Jespersen, M.; Jong, K. de; Olsson, J.

    2012-07-01

    This report presents methods used for estimating the hydrological impacts of climate change and their uncertainties, the expected impacts on extreme flows in Norway, and in Sweden with particular reference to Lake Vaenern, and examples of climate change impacts on river discharge and on agriculture in the Netherlands. Work considering changes in extreme precipitation is also reported, as are methods and strategies for communicating climate change impacts in flood management practice. (eb)

  7. Coastal flooding impact evaluation using an INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model for Varna region, Western Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreeva, Nataliya; Eftimova, Petya; Valchev, Nikolay; Prodanov, Bogdan

    2017-04-01

    The study presents evaluation and comparative analysis of storm induced flooding impacts on different coastal receptors at a scale of Varna region using INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model. The model was developed within the FP7 RISC-KIT project, as a part of Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) consisting of two phases. CRAF Phase 1 is a screening process that evaluates coastal risk at a regional scale by means of coastal indices approach, which helps to identify potentially vulnerable coastal sectors: hot spots (HS). CRAF Phase 2 has the objective to assess and rank identified hotspots by detailed risk analysis done by jointly performing a hazard assessment and an impact evaluation on different categories (population, businesses, ecosystems, transport and utilities) using INDRA model at a regional level. Basically, the model assess the shock of events by estimating the impact on directly exposed to flooding hazard receptors of different vulnerability, as well as the potential ripple effects during an event in order to assess the "indirect" impacts, which occur outside the hazard area and/or continue after the event for all considered categories. The potential impacts are expressed in terms of uniform "Impact Indicators", which independently score the indirect impacts of these categories assessing disruption and recovery of the receptors. The ultimate hotspot ranking is obtained through the use of a Multi Criteria analysis (MCA) incorporated in the model, considering preferences of stakeholders. The case study area - Varna regional coast - is located on the western Black Sea, Bulgaria. The coastline, with a length of about 70 km, stretches from cape Ekrene to cape St. Atanas and includes Varna Bay. After application of CRAF Phase 1 three hotspots were selected for further analysis: Kabakum beach (HS1), Varna Central beach plus Port wall (HS2) and Artificial Island (HS3). For first two hotspots beaches and associated infrastructure are the assets

  8. The environmental impact of flooding of the Dutch "Delta-metropole"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stuyt, L.C.P.M.; Reinders, J.E.A.; Hoek, van der E.E.; Hermans, E.G.M.; Muinck Keizer, de M.; Icke, J.

    2007-01-01

    Model studies into the consequences of flooding events usually focus on damage to buildings, infrastructure, economic losses and casualties yet ignore the risk of environmental damage. In this project, a model study was made to assess the environmental consequences of the release of pollutants

  9. The influence of hydroclimatic variability on flood frequency in the Lower Rhine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toonen, W.H.J.; Middelkoop, H.; Konijnendijk, T.Y.M.; Macklin, M.G.; Cohen, K.M.

    Climate change is expected to significantly affect flooding regimes of river systems in the future. For Western Europe, flood risk assessments generally assume an increase in extreme events and flood risk, and as a result major investments are planned to reduce their impacts. However, flood risk

  10. Delivering Integrated Flood Risk Management : Governance for collaboration, learning and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Herk, S.

    2014-01-01

    The frequency and consequences of extreme flood events have increased rapidly worldwide in recent decades and climate change and economic growth are likely to exacerbate this trend. Flood protection measures alone cannot accommodate the future frequencies and impacts of flooding. Integrated flood

  11. Delivering Integrated Flood Risk Management: Governance for collaboration, learning and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Herk, S.

    2014-01-01

    The frequency and consequences of extreme flood events have increased rapidly worldwide in recent decades and climate change and economic growth are likely to exacerbate this trend. Flood protection measures alone cannot accommodate the future frequencies and impacts of flooding. Integrated flood

  12. The Impact of Climate Change on the Duration and Division of Flood Season in the Fenhe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hejia Wang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the duration and division of the flood season in the Fenhe River Basin over the period of 1957–2014 based on daily precipitation data collected from 14 meteorological stations. The Mann–Kendall detection, the multiscale moving t-test, and the Fisher optimal partition methods are used to evaluate the impact of climate change on flood season duration and division. The results show that the duration of the flood season has extended in 1975–2014 compared to that in 1957–1974. Specifically, the onset date of the flood season has advanced 15 days, whereas the retreat date of the flood season remains almost the same. The flood season of the Fenhe River Basin can be divided into three stages, and the variations in the onset and retreat dates of each stage are also examined. Corresponding measures are also proposed to better utilize the flood resources to adapt to the flood season variations.

  13. The impact of floods in hospital and mitigation measures: A literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, N. A.; Shafii, H.; Omar, R.

    2017-11-01

    In late December 2014, the flood was most significant and largest recorded specifically in the Kelantan, Malaysia. It was considered to be a “tsunami like disaster” in which 202,000 victims were displaced and causing widespread collapse of public infrastructure. Flooding of hospital results in interruption of business, loss of infrastructure, such as electrical power and water supplies, increased difficulty in providing routine medical and increased patient admissions and nursing care for patients with chronic diseases, such as renal failure, diabetes, cancer, cystic fibrosis and mental illness. The aimed of this paper to identify the best of measures for reduce the risk of flood in hospital. Method of this paper uses the previous study result. Several related previous study can be used as measures to mitigation flood risk in Malaysian hospitals. Early stage research of related studies hope to help add more information to assist researchers in reducing the risk of flooding in hospital. The findings with proper pre-event preparation framework for mitigation flood risk of hospitals, the continuing medical services can be provided to patient especially during emergency.

  14. The environmental impacts of beach sport tourism events: a case ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Durban has several established beach sport events. One of the many events is the Mr Price Pro, an internationally recognised surfi ng event, which takes place during the Vodacom Beach Africa festival, held annually during the July holiday season. This article examines the environmental impact of beach tourism events by ...

  15. Flood simulation and verification with IoT sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Che-Hao; Hsu, Chih-Tsung; Wu, Shiang-Jen; Huang, Sue-Wei

    2017-04-01

    2D flood dynamic simulation is a vivid tool to demonstrate the possible expose area that sustain impact of high rise of water level. Along with progress in high resolution digital terrain model, the simulation results are quite convinced yet not proved to be close to what is really happened. Due to the dynamic and uncertain essence, the expose area usually could not be well defined during a flood event. Recent development in IoT sensors bring a low power and long distance communication which help us to collect real time flood depths. With these time series of flood depths at different locations, we are capable of verifying the simulation results corresponding to the flood event. 16 flood gauges with IoT specification as well as two flood events in Annan district, Tainan city, Taiwan are examined in this study. During the event in 11, June, 2016, 12 flood gauges works well and 8 of them provide observation match to simulation.

  16. Stage discharge curve for Guillemard Bridge streamflow sation based on rating curve method using historical flood event data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ros, F C; Sidek, L M; Desa, M N; Arifin, K; Tosaka, H

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the stage-discharge curves varies from water quality study, flood modelling study, can be used to project climate change scenarios and so on. As the bed of the river often changes due to the annual monsoon seasons that sometimes cause by massive floods, the capacity of the river will changed causing shifting controlled to happen. This study proposes to use the historical flood event data from 1960 to 2009 in calculating the stage-discharge curve of Guillemard Bridge located in Sg. Kelantan. Regression analysis was done to check the quality of the data and examine the correlation between the two variables, Q and H. The mean values of the two variables then were adopted to find the value of difference between zero gauge height and the level of zero flow, 'a', K and 'n' to fit into rating curve equation and finally plotting the stage-discharge rating curve. Regression analysis of the historical flood data indicate that 91 percent of the original uncertainty has been explained by the analysis with the standard error of 0.085.

  17. Concentration-discharge relationships during an extreme event: Contrasting behavior of solutes and changes to chemical quality of dissolved organic material in the Boulder Creek Watershed during the September 2013 flood: SOLUTE FLUX IN A FLOOD EVENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rue, Garrett P. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Rock, Nathan D. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Gabor, Rachel S. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Pitlick, John [Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Tfaily, Malak [Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; McKnight, Diane M. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA

    2017-07-01

    During the week of September 10-17, 2013, close to 20 inches of rain fell across Boulder County, Colorado, USA. This rainfall represented a 1000-year event that caused massive hillslope erosion, landslides, and mobilization of sediments. The resultant stream flows corresponded to a 100-year flood. For the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory (BC-CZO), this event provided an opportunity to study the effect of extreme rainfall on solute concentration-discharge relationships and biogeochemical catchment processes. We observed base cation and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations at two sites on Boulder Creek following the recession of peak flow. We also isolated three distinct fractions of dissolved organic matter (DOM) for chemical characterization. At the upper site, which represented the forested mountain catchment, the concentrations of the base cations Ca, Mg and Na were greatest at the peak flood and decreased only slightly, in contrast with DOC and K concentrations, which decreased substantially. At the lower site within urban corridor, all solutes decreased abruptly after the first week of flow recession, with base cation concentrations stabilizing while DOC and K continued to decrease. Additionally, we found significant spatiotemporal trends in the chemical quality of organic matter exported during the flood recession, as measured by fluorescence, 13C-NMR spectroscopy, and FTICR-MS. Similar to the effect of extreme rainfall events in driving landslides and mobilizing sediments, our findings suggest that such events mobilize solutes by the flushing of the deeper layers of the critical zone, and that this flushing regulates terrestrial-aquatic biogeochemical linkages during the flow recession.

  18. Impacts of climate change on rainfall, seasonal flooding, and evapotranspiration in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konecky, B. L.; Noone, D.; Mosimanyana, E.; Gondwe, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Okavango Delta in northern Botswana is one of the world's richest biodiversity hotspots. A UNESCO World Heritage Site, the Delta is known for its unique annual flood pulse, whereby the wetland and its neighboring river systems are inundated with waters that travel nearly 1000 km before reaching this subtropical, semi-arid destination. The livelihoods of northern Botswana's ecosystems and human populations rely on these floods to supplement the short and variable rainy season, which in many years is too minimal to ameliorate regional drought. However, anthropogenic climate change is reducing the amount of water that reaches the delta by increasing evaporation from soils and rivers, and transpiration by vegetation, during its long transit to Botswana. Future changes in rainfall patterns, extreme events, and increased upstream water use could exacerbate this water stress. Unfortunately, it remains difficult to assess the impacts of climate change on the delta because few data exist to constrain its complex climatic and seasonal water cycling regimes. This study presents a novel characterization of the water cycle in and around the Okavango Delta based on a survey of free-flowing surface waters, stagnant pools, precipitation, and groundwater carried out during the 2016 rainy and early-flood season. We use stable isotope and water quality data to assess local moisture sources, transport, evaporation, wetland flushing, and land-atmosphere exchanges, all of which are subject to change under global warming. We find a strong evaporation gradient and a progressive flushing of stagnant swamp waters along the northeastern and northwestern channels of the Delta. The evaporation gradient is more limited in nearby rivers with more limited wetlands. We contrast results with a survey of the Delta performed in the 1970's in order to assess changes over the past 40 years. Since some of these changes may arise from rainfall supply, we also present new analysis of rainfall moisture

  19. Patterns and comparisons of human-induced changes in river flood impacts in cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Stephanie; Sharma, Ashish; Sisson, Scott A.

    2018-03-01

    In this study, information extracted from the first global urban fluvial flood risk data set (Aqueduct) is investigated and visualized to explore current and projected city-level flood impacts driven by urbanization and climate change. We use a novel adaption of the self-organizing map (SOM) method, an artificial neural network proficient at clustering, pattern extraction, and visualization of large, multi-dimensional data sets. Prevalent patterns of current relationships and anticipated changes over time in the nonlinearly-related environmental and social variables are presented, relating urban river flood impacts to socioeconomic development and changing hydrologic conditions. Comparisons are provided between 98 individual cities. Output visualizations compare baseline and changing trends of city-specific exposures of population and property to river flooding, revealing relationships between the cities based on their relative map placements. Cities experiencing high (or low) baseline flood impacts on population and/or property that are expected to improve (or worsen), as a result of anticipated climate change and development, are identified and compared. This paper condenses and conveys large amounts of information through visual communication to accelerate the understanding of relationships between local urban conditions and global processes.

  20. August, 2002 - floods events, affected areas revitalisation and prevention for the future in the central Bohemian region, Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bina, L.; Vacha, F.; Vodova, J.

    2003-04-01

    Central Bohemian Region is located in a shape of a ring surrounding the capitol of Prague. Its total territorial area is 11.014 sq.km and population of 1 130.000 inhabitants. According to EU nomenclature of regional statistical units, the Central Bohemian Region is classified as an independent NUTS II. Bohemia's biggest rivers, Vltava and Labe form the region's backbone dividing it along a north-south line, besides that there are Sazava and Berounka, the two big headwaters of Vltava, which flow through the region and there also are some cascade man made lakes and 2 important big dams - Orlik and Slapy on the Vltava River in the area of the region. Overflowing of these rivers and their feeders including cracking of high-water dams during the floods in August 2002 caused total or partial destruction or damage of more than 200 towns and villages and total losses to the extend of 450 mil. EUR. The worst impact was on damaged or destroyed human dwellings, social infrastructure (schools, kindergartens, humanitarian facilities) and technical infrastructure (roads, waterworks, power distribution). Also businesses were considerably damaged including transport terminals in the area of river ports. Flowage of Spolana Neratovice chemical works caused critical environmental havoc. Regional crisis staff with regional Governor in the lead worked continuously during the floods and a regional integrated rescue system was subordinated to it. Due to the huge extent of the floods the crisis staff coordinated its work with central bodies of state including the Government and single "power" resorts (army, interior, transport). Immediately after floods a regional - controlled management was set up including an executive body for regional revitalisation which is connected to state coordinating resort - Ministry for Local Development, EU sources and humanitarian aid. In addition to a program of regional revitalisation additional preventive flood control programs are being developed

  1. The Use of Chemoprophylaxis after Floods to Reduce the Occurrence and Impact of Leptospirosis Outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Maria Cristina; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Min, Kyung-Duk; Leonel, Deise Galan; Baca-Carrasco, David; Gompper, Matthew E; Hartskeerl, Rudy; Munoz-Zanzi, Claudia

    2017-06-03

    Record-breaking and devastating rainfall events have occurred in the past decade. Rain and floods are considered the main risk factors for leptospirosis and several outbreaks have been reported following extreme weather events. In such situations, one possible intervention to prevent leptospirosis cases in high-risk groups is the use of chemoprophylaxis. However, not enough evidence of its effect is available. The objectives of this study were to review the literature on the current practices of chemoprophylaxis for leptospirosis and to explore, using a mathematical model, how various chemoprophylaxis scenarios may affect the progression of a leptospirosis outbreak. Twenty-six peer-reviewed publications were selected (10 quantitative studies, two systematic reviews and 14 articles of other types). Oral doxycycline was the most used antibiotic for chemoprophylaxis of leptospirosis. Post-exposure prophylaxis was assessed in four studies following a natural disaster. Although evidence of the effectiveness of post-exposure prophylaxis is inconsistent, the direction of association supported a protective effect for morbidity and mortality. The theoretical model showed how the assumed benefit of chemoprophylaxis was influenced by the time and rate of administration. Future models should consider the heterogeneity of affected communities, improved estimates of the effect of chemoprophylaxis on leptospirosis infection and disease, as well as potential detrimental impacts. Additional research is critical to provide clear evidence-based recommendations for leptospirosis control during an outbreak. The results of this study suggest that chemoprophylaxis may provide some protection in reducing the number of leptospirosis cases after a high-risk exposure; however, the effective benefit may depend on a variety of factors such as the timing and coverage of prophylaxis. The information summarized can be used to support decision-making during a high-risk event.

  2. The Use of Chemoprophylaxis after Floods to Reduce the Occurrence and Impact of Leptospirosis Outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cristina Schneider

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Record-breaking and devastating rainfall events have occurred in the past decade. Rain and floods are considered the main risk factors for leptospirosis and several outbreaks have been reported following extreme weather events. In such situations, one possible intervention to prevent leptospirosis cases in high-risk groups is the use of chemoprophylaxis. However, not enough evidence of its effect is available. The objectives of this study were to review the literature on the current practices of chemoprophylaxis for leptospirosis and to explore, using a mathematical model, how various chemoprophylaxis scenarios may affect the progression of a leptospirosis outbreak. Twenty-six peer-reviewed publications were selected (10 quantitative studies, two systematic reviews and 14 articles of other types. Oral doxycycline was the most used antibiotic for chemoprophylaxis of leptospirosis. Post-exposure prophylaxis was assessed in four studies following a natural disaster. Although evidence of the effectiveness of post-exposure prophylaxis is inconsistent, the direction of association supported a protective effect for morbidity and mortality. The theoretical model showed how the assumed benefit of chemoprophylaxis was influenced by the time and rate of administration. Future models should consider the heterogeneity of affected communities, improved estimates of the effect of chemoprophylaxis on leptospirosis infection and disease, as well as potential detrimental impacts. Additional research is critical to provide clear evidence-based recommendations for leptospirosis control during an outbreak. The results of this study suggest that chemoprophylaxis may provide some protection in reducing the number of leptospirosis cases after a high-risk exposure; however, the effective benefit may depend on a variety of factors such as the timing and coverage of prophylaxis. The information summarized can be used to support decision-making during a high-risk event.

  3. Estimating regional long-term economic consequences of natural hazards - a case study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol (Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfurtscheller, C.; Lochner, B.; Brucker, A.

    2012-04-01

    The interaction of relief-driven alpine natural processes with the anthropogenic sphere often leads to natural disasters which significantly impact on remote alpine economies. When evaluating the effects of such events for future risk prevention strategies, it is essential to assess indirect losses. While the economic measurement of direct effects - the physical impact on structures and infrastructure - seems fairly manageable, less is known about the dimensions of indirect effects, especially on a local and regional scale within the Alps. The lack of standardized terminology, empirical data and methods to estimate indirect economic effects currently hampers profound decision support. In our study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol, we surveyed companies from all sectors of the economy to identify the main drivers of indirect effects and interrupted economic flows. In collaboration with the Federal State administration, we extrapolate the total regional economic effects of this catastrophic event. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we established and analysed a data pool of questionnaire and interview results as well as direct loss data. We mainly focus on the decrease in value creation and the negative impacts on tourism. We observed that disrupted traffic networks can have a highly negative impact, especially for the tourism sector in lateral alpine valleys. Within a month, turnover fell by approximately EUR 3.3 million in the investigated area. In the short run (until August 2006), the shortfall in touristic revenues in the Paznaun valley aggregated to approx. EUR 5.3 million. We observed that overnight stays rebound very quickly so that long-term effects are marginal. In addition, we tried to identify possible economical losers as well as winners of severe hazard impacts. In response to such flood events, high investments are made to improve disaster and risk management. Nearly 70% of the respondents specified the (re)construction sector and similar

  4. Long-term changes in flood event patterns due to changes in hydrological distribution parameters in a rural-urban catchment, Shikoku, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouri, Goro; Kanae, Shinjiro; Oki, Taikan

    2011-07-01

    This article describes the principal control parameters of flood events and precipitation and the relationships between corresponding hydrologic and climatologic parameters. The long-term generation of runoff and associated processes is important in understanding floods and droughts under changes in climate and land use. This study presents detailed analyses of flood events in a coastal amphitheatre catchment with a total area of 445 km 2 in western Japan, followed by analyses of flood events in both urban and forest areas. Using long-term (1962 to 2002) hydrological and climatological data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan, the contributions of precipitation, river discharge, temperature, and relative humidity to flood events were analysed. Flood events could be divided into three types with respect to hydrologic and climatologic principal control parameters: the long-term tendency; medium-term changes as revealed by hydrographs and hyetographs of high-intensity events such as the relative precipitation, river discharge, and temperature; and large events, as shown by the flow-duration curve, with each cluster having particular characteristics. River discharge showed a decreasing tendency of flow quantity during small rainfall events of less than 100 mm/event from the 1980s to the present. An approximately 7% decrease from 44.8 to 37.3% occurred in the percentage of river water supplied by precipitation in the years after the 1980s. For the medium-term changes, no marked change occurred in the flow quantity of the peak point over time in event hydrographs. However, flow quantities before and after the peak tended to decrease by 1 to 2 m 3/s after the 1980s. Theoretical considerations with regard to the influence of hydrologic and climatologic parameters on flood discharge are discussed and examined in terms of observational data. These findings provide a sound foundation for use in hydrological catchment modelling.

  5. IMPACTS OF WETLAND DEGRADATION IN NIGER DELTA NIGERIA AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE IN FLOOD CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enwere Chidimma Loveline

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available  Wetlands perform a wide variety of functions that include flood control, ground water recharge, shore line stabilization, storm protection and climate moderation. However, despite these huge wetland functions, it has witnessed poor appreciation and dreadful conditions. Niger Delta has witnessed constant coastal erosion and rising sea level, this has led to large portions of the landmass being eroded. This paper aims to review some environmental effects of flooding in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria to provide the desired knowledge of role that wetlands play in reducing flood impacts. However, having witnessed the flood, the experience opened my eyes to the environmental challenges facing Niger Delta with respect to Wetlands degradation, poor perception of wetland values and functions, poor environmental practices and non-implementation of environmental regulations. This memorable experience rekindled the desire and motivation to seek a solution to wetland degradation with the aim of recognizing significance of wetlands at the centre of achieving both livelihood and biodiversity improvements to address coastal flooding problem.The study therefore concludes that wetlands are very significant in flood control and thus the conservation and restoration of wetlands, should put in place measures to reduce wetland destruction.International Journal of EnvironmentVolume-4, Issue-3, June-August 2015Page: 177-184

  6. Evaluation of low impact development approach for mitigating flood inundation at a watershed scale in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Maochuan; Sayama, Takahiro; Zhang, Xingqi; Tanaka, Kenji; Takara, Kaoru; Yang, Hong

    2017-05-15

    Low impact development (LID) has attracted growing attention as an important approach for urban flood mitigation. Most studies evaluating LID performance for mitigating floods focus on the changes of peak flow and runoff volume. This paper assessed the performance of LID practices for mitigating flood inundation hazards as retrofitting technologies in an urbanized watershed in Nanjing, China. The findings indicate that LID practices are effective for flood inundation mitigation at the watershed scale, and especially for reducing inundated areas with a high flood hazard risk. Various scenarios of LID implementation levels can reduce total inundated areas by 2%-17% and areas with a high flood hazard level by 6%-80%. Permeable pavement shows better performance than rainwater harvesting against mitigating urban waterlogging. The most efficient scenario is combined rainwater harvesting on rooftops with a cistern capacity of 78.5 mm and permeable pavement installed on 75% of non-busy roads and other impervious surfaces. Inundation modeling is an effective approach to obtaining the information necessary to guide decision-making for designing LID practices at watershed scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A comparison of the flood precipitation episode in August 2002 with historic extreme precipitation events on the Czech territory

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řezáčová, Daniela; Kašpar, Marek; Müller, Miloslav; Sokol, Zbyněk; Kakos, Vilibald; Hanslian, David; Pešice, Petr

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 77, - (2005), s. 354-366 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IBS3042101; GA MŽP(CZ) SA/650/4/03 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Precipitation * Summer floods * Czech territory * Hydro-meteorological conditions * Extremeness of meteorological quantities * Distribution function Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.481, year: 2005

  8. Impacts of Flooding on Road Transport Infrastructure In Enugu Metropolitan City, Nigeria.

    OpenAIRE

    Iloeje, A. F; Aniagolu, C. O

    2015-01-01

    An assessment of the impact of flooding on the road transport infrastructure in Enugu Metropolis was carried out using survey research method. Thirty impact indicators were rated by the respondents against six impact dimensions of population, vulnerability of activities, frequency, intensity, extent and risk. Three null hypotheses were postulated and tested. One sample t-test was used for testing hypothesis one which stated that damages to the road transport infrastructure resulti...

  9. Social vulnerability analysis of the event flood puddle (case study in Lamongan regency, East Java province)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soegiyanto; Rindawati

    2018-01-01

    This research was conducted in the flood plain Bonorowo in Lamongan East Java Province. The area was inundated almost every year, but people still survive and remain settled at the sites. This research is to identify and analyze the social vulnerability in the flood plains on the characteristics puddle Bonorowo This research method is the study of the characteristics and livelihood strategies of the communities living on marginal lands (floodplains Bonorowo) are regions prone to flooding / inundation. Based on the object of this study is a survey research method mix / mix method, which merge or combination of methods of quantitative and qualitative methods, so it will be obtained a description of a more comprehensive and holistic. The results obtained in this study are; Social vulnerability is not affected by the heightened puddles. Social capital is abundant making society safer and more comfortable to keep their activities and settle in the region

  10. Combined Effect of an Atmospheric River and a Cut-off Low in Hiroshima Flooding Event on August 19, 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayabu, Y. N.; Hirota, N.; Kato, M.; Arakane, S.

    2015-12-01

    An extraordinary precipitation over 100 mmhr-1in Hiroshima on August 19, 2014, caused a flash flood which resulted in 74 fatalities and collapse of 330 houses. In order to examine the meteorological background of this flooding event, we carried out a detailed analysis utilizing rain gauge data, satellite precipitation dataset, and a meso scale and a global scale objective analyses provided from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Then, we performed numerical experiments using a nonhydrostatic compressible equation model called the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS). As a result, a combined effect of an atmospheric river (AR) and a cut-off low (COL) in this flooding event was elucidated. During the event, a filamentary transport of moisture extending from the Indochina Peninsula to the Japanese Islands was observed along the southern side of the subtropical jet, forming an AR. This AR had a deep structure with an amount of free tropospheric moisture comparable to that of the boundary layer. Concurrently, there was a COL, detached from the Mid-Pacific Trough, moving northwestward toward the Japanese Archipelago. With various sensitivity experiments, we concluded that a mid-tropospheric instability associated with the cold core of the COL and a dynamical ascent induced in its foreside, collaboratively worked with the anomalous moisture in the free troposphere associated with the AR, to extraordinarily enhance the precipitation over Hiroshima region. An orographic effect to concentrate the precipitation in this region was also confirmed. An implication on a difference in effects of AR in this event with a climatologically moist boundary layer, from those in the US west coast with a very dry environment, was also obtained. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1503) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan.

  11. Flood impact assessment on the development of Archaia Olympia riparian area in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasaporti, Christina; Podimata, Marianthi; Yannopoulos, Panayotis

    2013-04-01

    A long list of articles in the literature examines several issues of flood risk management and applications of flood scenarios, taking into consideration the climate changes, as well as decision making tools in flood planning. The present study tries to highlight the conversation concerning flood impacts on the development rate of a riparian area. More specifically, Archaia (Ancient) Olympia watershed was selected as a case study area, since it is considered as a region of special interest and international significance. In addition, Alfeios River, which is the longest river of Peloponnisos Peninsula, passes through the plain of Archaia Olympia. Flood risk scenarios allow scientists and practitioners to understand the adverse effects of flooding on development activities such as farming, tourism etc. and infrastructures in the area such as road and railway networks, Flokas dam and the hydroelectric power plant, bridges, settlements and other properties. Flood risks cause adverse consequences on the region of Archaia Olympia (Ancient Olympic stadium) and Natura 2000 site area. Furthermore, SWOT analysis was used in order to quantify multicriteria and socio-economic characteristics of the study area. SWOT analysis, as a planning method, indicates the development perspective by identifying the strengths, weaknesses, threads and opportunities. Subsequent steps in the process of intergraded River Management Plan of Archaia Olympia could be derived from SWOT analysis. The recognition and analysis of hydro-geomorphological influences on riparian development activities can lead to the definition of hazardous and vulnerability zones and special warning equipment. The former information combined with the use of the spatial database for the catchment area of the River Alfeios, which aims to gather multiple watershed data, could serve in preparing the Management Plan of River Basin District 01 where Alfeios R. belongs. Greece has to fulfill the obligation of implementing River

  12. Impacts of the 2013 Extreme Flood in Northeast China on Regional Groundwater Depth and Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xihua Wang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Flooding’s impact on shallow groundwater is not well investigated. In this study, we analyzed changes in the depth and quality of a regional shallow aquifer in the 10.9 × 104 km2 Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China, following a large flood in the summer of 2013. Pre- (2008–2012 and post-flood records on groundwater table depth and groundwater chemistry were gathered from 20 wells across the region. Spatial variability of groundwater recharge after the flood was assessed and the changes in groundwater quality in the post-flood period were determined. The study found a considerable increase in the groundwater table after the 2013 summer flood across the region, with the largest (3.20 m and fastest (0.80 m·s−1 rising height occurring in western Sanjiang Plain. The rising height and velocity gradually declined from the west to the east of the plain. For the entire region, we estimated an average recharge height of 1.24 m for the four flood months (June to September of 2013. Furthermore, we found that the extreme flood reduced nitrate (NO3− and chloride (Cl− concentrations and electrical conductivity (EC in shallow groundwater in the areas that were close to rivers, but increased NO3− and Cl− concentrations and EC in the areas that were under intensive agricultural practices. As the region’s groundwater storage and quality have been declining due to the rapidly increasing rice cultivation, this study shows that floods should be managed as water resources to ease the local water shortage as well as shallow groundwater pollution.

  13. Can we predict the next urban flood?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2015-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numericallyboth...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0-2 hours leadtime, and numerical weather models with leadtimes up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model with the purpose to investigate the potential for predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been recently flooded. Results show that it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution...

  14. Impacts of channel deposition on the risk of flooding in a watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ting-Yue, Hong; Chia-Ling, Chang

    2017-04-01

    Taiwan is located in East Asian where is always hit by typhoons. Typhoons usually bring huge amounts of rainfall and result in the problems of channel deposition. Deposition influences the functions of channel and increases the risk of flooding. The Luliao Reservoir Watershed is the case area in this study. It is the major water source for agricultural activity and domestic use. The objective of this study is to assess the possible impacts of channel deposition on the watershed environment. This study applies the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to predict the hydrologic responses and evaluate the risk of flooding. The results show that the decrease of cross section induced by deposition in a channel may increase the risk of flooding and impact the safety of watershed environment. Therefore, canal desilting is important in channel regulation. The discussion and analysis can be useful references for channel regulation.

  15. Urbanization Impacts on Flooding in the Kansas River Basin and Evaluation of Wetlands as a Mitigation Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study evaluates the impacts of future land use changes on flooding in the Kansas River Basin. It also studies the impacts of wetlands on flood reduction. The study presents Hydrologic Engineering Centers-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) based runoff modeling and River A...

  16. Impacts of floods on forest trees and their coping strategies in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shukla Rani Basak

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available During recent years, the Government of Bangladesh, Non-Government Organizations (NGOs, semi-government organizations, private organizations and individuals have established a large number of plantations under different programs viz. social forestry, agro-forestry and avenue plantations with indigenous and exotic tree species without considering their habit and habitats. Along with the indigenous species like Albizia procera, Albizia lebbeck, Mangifera indica, Azadirachta indica, Gmelina arborea, Trewia nudiflora and Artocapus heterophyllus and many exotic species e.g. Swietenia macrophylla, Albizia saman, Dalbergia sissoo, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Acacia auriculiformis, Melia sempervirens, Acacia mangium etc. have been planted randomly. With increasing trend of climate-induced floods, millions of trees have been dying due to floods and water-logging. The most affected species are Dalbergia sissoo, Albizia saman, Acacia auriculiformis, Acacia mangium and Artocarpus heterophyllus etc. This situation has caused severe impacts on socio-economic conditions of Bangladesh. The impacts involved a significant loss in terms of investment, biodiversity and afforestation program. Little investigations have been conducted to find out the causes of the deaths and also to find out the suitable adaptation practices to reduce impacts of floods on trees. This synthesis focused on the impacts of floods on plantations and also assessed the potential role of traditional forest management practices in addressing the effects flooding on forests in Bangladesh. The study added important information and revealed knowledge gaps on the causes of large forest deaths. It also provided recommendations for policy on the establishment of frequent floods resilient tree crop plantations.

  17. When nature frowns: A comprehensive impact assessment of the 2012 Babessi floods on people’s livelihoods in rural Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland A. Balgah

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Floods are the most common natural disasters worldwide. Much of the growing literature on the impact of floods, especially in developed countries, and to a lesser extent in rural areas of developing countries, concentrates on economic rather than a comprehensive assessment of combined effects on people’s livelihoods. Holistic floods impact assessments are often done long after the shock, raising problems of data reliability following long recall periods, although post-disaster needs assessments when carried out earlier can facilitate appropriate disaster recovery, relief and reconstruction activities. We applied the sustainable livelihoods framework as a comprehensive approach to assess the impacts of the Babessi floods in 2012 on livelihoods in rural (north western region of Cameroon 6 weeks after the floods. Using a structured questionnaire, data was collected from victims before and after the floods, using recall methods. A matched sample of nonvictims randomly selected from the same village as the victims was used to assess vulnerability to the floods by household type. Floods were found to have serious economic, social, human and food security impacts on victims. Both government and nongovernmental support were jointly crucial for household recovery. Comparatively observed high levels of recovery were attributed to the low loss of human lives. The article concludes with the need for comprehensive approaches to floods impact assessments. The need for combining formal and informal instruments in post-disaster management in rural areas is also emphasised.

  18. Impacts of 21st century sea-level rise on a Danish major city - an assessment based on fine-resolution digital topography and a new flooding algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeslund, Jesper Erenskjold; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Boecher, Peder Klith; Moelhave, Thomas; Arge, Lars

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the potential impact of 21st century sea-level rise on Aarhus, the second largest city in Denmark, emphasizing the economic risk to the city's real estate. Furthermore, it assesses which possible adaptation measures that can be taken to prevent flooding in areas particularly at risk from flooding. We combine a new national Digital Elevation Model in very fine resolution (∼2 meter), a new highly computationally efficient flooding algorithm that accurately models the influence of barriers, and geospatial data on real-estate values to assess the economic real-estate risk posed by future sea-level rise to Aarhus. Under the A2 and A1FI (IPCC) climate scenarios we show that relatively large residential areas in the northern part of the city as well as areas around the river running through the city are likely to become flooded in the event of extreme, but realistic weather events. In addition, most of the large Aarhus harbour would also risk flooding. As much of the area at risk represent high-value real estate, it seems clear that proactive measures other than simple abandonment should be taken in order to avoid heavy economic losses. Among the different possibilities for dealing with an increased sea level, the strategic placement of flood-gates at key potential water-inflow routes and the construction or elevation of existing dikes seems to be the most convenient, most socially acceptable, and maybe also the cheapest solution. Finally, we suggest that high-detail flooding models similar to those produced in this study will become an important tool for a climate-change-integrated planning of future city development as well as for the development of evacuation plans.

  19. Impacts of 21st century sea-level rise on a Danish major city - an assessment based on fine-resolution digital topography and a new flooding algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeslund, Jesper Erenskjold; Svenning, Jens-Christian [Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University (Denmark); Boecher, Peder Klith [Department of Agroecology and Environment, Aarhus University (Denmark); Moelhave, Thomas; Arge, Lars, E-mail: jesper.moeslund@biology.au.d [MADALGO - Center for Massive Data Algorithmics, Aarhus University (Denmark)

    2009-11-01

    This study examines the potential impact of 21st century sea-level rise on Aarhus, the second largest city in Denmark, emphasizing the economic risk to the city's real estate. Furthermore, it assesses which possible adaptation measures that can be taken to prevent flooding in areas particularly at risk from flooding. We combine a new national Digital Elevation Model in very fine resolution ({approx}2 meter), a new highly computationally efficient flooding algorithm that accurately models the influence of barriers, and geospatial data on real-estate values to assess the economic real-estate risk posed by future sea-level rise to Aarhus. Under the A2 and A1FI (IPCC) climate scenarios we show that relatively large residential areas in the northern part of the city as well as areas around the river running through the city are likely to become flooded in the event of extreme, but realistic weather events. In addition, most of the large Aarhus harbour would also risk flooding. As much of the area at risk represent high-value real estate, it seems clear that proactive measures other than simple abandonment should be taken in order to avoid heavy economic losses. Among the different possibilities for dealing with an increased sea level, the strategic placement of flood-gates at key potential water-inflow routes and the construction or elevation of existing dikes seems to be the most convenient, most socially acceptable, and maybe also the cheapest solution. Finally, we suggest that high-detail flooding models similar to those produced in this study will become an important tool for a climate-change-integrated planning of future city development as well as for the development of evacuation plans.

  20. Effects of the November 2012 Flood Event on the Mobilization of Hg from the Mount Amiata Mining District to the Sediments of the Paglia River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulia Pattelli

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The Mount Amiata mining district (southern Tuscany, Italy was, for decades, one of the world’s largest mercury (Hg producing regions, where mining activity lasted until the 1980s. The Paglia River drains the eastern part of the district and is also the main western tributary of the Tiber River. Recent studies show that, still today, high total Hg contents severely affect the downstream ecosystems of these rivers. In November 2012, a major flood event occurred in the Paglia River basin, which drastically changed the river morphology and, possibly, the Hg concentrations. In the present work, stream sediment was sampled before and after the flood to evaluate possible changes in sediment total Hg concentrations as a consequence of this event. The comparison between pre- and post-flood Hg concentrations shows that Hg content increased up to an order of magnitude after the flood, suggesting that this event triggered Hg mobilization in the basin rather than its dilution.

  1. Economic Assessment of Mitigating Damage of Flood Events : Cost–Benefit Analysis of Flood-Proofing Commercial Buildings in Umbria, Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W. J.Wouter; Monteiro, Érika; Estrada, Francisco; Pesaro, Giulia; Menoni, Scira

    2017-01-01

    Floods are among the costliest natural disasters worldwide. Integrated flood risk management approaches involving both public and private measures have been proposed to cope with trends in flood risk. These approaches are hampered by a lack of information about the cost-effectiveness of private

  2. Leakage of radioactive materials from particle accelerator facilities by non-radiation disasters like fire and flooding and its environmental impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, A.; Jung, N. S.; Mokhtari Oranj, L.; Lee, H. S.

    2018-06-01

    The leakage of radioactive materials generated at particle accelerator facilities is one of the important issues in the view of radiation safety. In this study, fire and flooding at particle accelerator facilities were considered as the non-radiation disasters which result in the leakage of radioactive materials. To analyse the expected effects at each disaster, the case study on fired and flooded particle accelerator facilities was carried out with the property investigation of interesting materials presented in the accelerator tunnel and the activity estimation. Five major materials in the tunnel were investigated: dust, insulators, concrete, metals and paints. The activation levels on the concerned materials were calculated using several Monte Carlo codes (MCNPX 2.7+SP-FISPACT 2007, FLUKA 2011.4c and PHITS 2.64+DCHAIN-SP 2001). The impact weight to environment was estimated for the different beam particles (electron, proton, carbon and uranium) and the different beam energies (100, 430, 600 and 1000 MeV/nucleon). With the consideration of the leakage path of radioactive materials due to fire and flooding, the activation level of selected materials, and the impacts to the environment were evaluated. In the case of flooding, dust, concrete and metal were found as a considerable object. In the case of fire event, dust, insulator and paint were the major concerns. As expected, the influence of normal fire and flooding at electron accelerator facilities would be relatively low for both cases.

  3. Immediate impact of the flood (Bohemia, August 2002) on selected soil characteristics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Elhottová, Dana; Krištůfek, Václav; Tříska, Jan; Chrastný, V.; Uhlířová, Eva; Kalčík, Jiří; Picek, T.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 173, č. 1-4, (2006), s. 177-193 ISSN 0049-6979 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6066911; CEZ:AV0Z6087904; CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : flood on soil * hazardous elements * organic persistent compounds Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.205, year: 2006

  4. The impact of river flooding and high flow on the demersal fish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Freshwater inflow has a strong impact on the biological, chemical and physical characteristics of estuaries, which in turn affect the distribution and abundance of estuarine organisms. Increased climatic variability associated with climate change is predicated to modify precipitation patterns, which will likely intensify floods in ...

  5. Using Bayesian Network as a tool for coastal storm flood impact prediction at Varna Bay (Bulgaria, Western Black Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valchev, Nikolay; Eftimova, Petya; Andreeva, Nataliya; Prodanov, Bogdan

    2017-04-01

    Coastal zone is among the fastest evolving areas worldwide. Ever increasing population inhabiting coastal settlements develops often conflicting economic and societal activities. The existing imbalance between the expansion of these activities, on one hand, and the potential to accommodate them in a sustainable manner, on the other, becomes a critical problem. Concurrently, coasts are affected by various hydro-meteorological phenomena such as storm surges, heavy seas, strong winds and flash floods, which intensities and occurrence frequency is likely to increase due to the climate change. This implies elaboration of tools capable of quick prediction of impact of those phenomena on the coast and providing solutions in terms of disaster risk reduction measures. One such tool is Bayesian network. Proposed paper describes the set-up of such network for Varna Bay (Bulgaria, Western Black Sea). It relates near-shore storm conditions to their onshore flood potential and ultimately to relevant impact as relative damage on coastal and manmade environment. Methodology for set-up and training of the Bayesian network was developed within RISC-KIT project (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT). Proposed BN reflects the interaction between boundary conditions, receptors, hazard, and consequences. Storm boundary conditions - maximum significant wave height and peak surge level, were determined on the basis of their historical and projected occurrence. The only hazard considered in this study is flooding characterized by maximum inundation depth. BN was trained with synthetic events created by combining estimated boundary conditions. Flood impact was modeled with the process-based morphodynamical model XBeach. Restaurants, sport and leisure facilities, administrative buildings, and car parks were introduced in the network as receptors. Consequences (impact) are estimated in terms of relative damage caused by given inundation depth. National depth

  6. Impact of the Three-Gorges Dam and water transfer project on Changjiang floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, Tadanobu; Shankman, David

    2013-01-01

    Increasing frequency of severe floods on the middle and lower Changjiang (Yangtze) River during the past few decades can be attributed to both abnormal monsoon rainfall and landscape changes that include extensive deforestation affecting river sedimentation, and shrinking lakes and levee construction that reduced the areas available for floodwater storage. The Three-Gorges Dam (TGD) and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) will also affect frequency and intensity of severe floods in the Poyang Lake region of the middle Changjiang. Process-based National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model predicts that the TGD will increase flood risk during the early summer monsoon against the original justifications for building the dam, relating to complex river-lake-groundwater interactions. Several scenarios predict that morphological change will increase flood risk around the lake. This indicates the importance of managing both flood discharge and sediment deposition for the entire basin. Further, the authors assessed the impact of sand mining in the lake after its prohibition on the Changjiang, and clarified that alternative scenario of sand mining in lakes currently disconnected from the mainstream would reduce the flood risk to a greater extent than intensive dredging along junction channel. Because dry biomasses simulated by the model were linearly related to the Time-Integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TINDVI) estimated from satellite images, its decadal gradient during 1982-1999 showed a spatially heterogeneous distribution and generally decreasing trends beside the lakes, indicating that the increases in lake reclamation and the resultant decrease in rice productivity are closely related to the hydrologic changes. This integrated approach could help to minimize flood damage and promote better decisions addressing sustainable development.

  7. Locally adapted fish populations maintain small-scale genetic differentiation despite perturbation by a catastrophic flood event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plath, Martin; Hermann, Bernd; Schröder, Christiane; Riesch, Rüdiger; Tobler, Michael; García de León, Francisco J; Schlupp, Ingo; Tiedemann, Ralph

    2010-08-23

    Local adaptation to divergent environmental conditions can promote population genetic differentiation even in the absence of geographic barriers and hence, lead to speciation. Perturbations by catastrophic events, however, can distort such parapatric ecological speciation processes. Here, we asked whether an exceptionally strong flood led to homogenization of gene pools among locally adapted populations of the Atlantic molly (Poecilia mexicana, Poeciliidae) in the Cueva del Azufre system in southern Mexico, where two strong environmental selection factors (darkness within caves and/or presence of toxic H2S in sulfidic springs) drive the diversification of P. mexicana. Nine nuclear microsatellites as well as heritable female life history traits (both as a proxy for quantitative genetics and for trait divergence) were used as markers to compare genetic differentiation, genetic diversity, and especially population mixing (immigration and emigration) before and after the flood. Habitat type (i.e., non-sulfidic surface, sulfidic surface, or sulfidic cave), but not geographic distance was the major predictor of genetic differentiation. Before and after the flood, each habitat type harbored a genetically distinct population. Only a weak signal of individual dislocation among ecologically divergent habitat types was uncovered (with the exception of slightly increased dislocation from the Cueva del Azufre into the sulfidic creek, El Azufre). By contrast, several lines of evidence are indicative of increased flood-induced dislocation within the same habitat type, e.g., between different cave chambers of the Cueva del Azufre. The virtual absence of individual dislocation among ecologically different habitat types indicates strong natural selection against migrants. Thus, our current study exemplifies that ecological speciation in this and other systems, in which extreme environmental factors drive speciation, may be little affected by temporary perturbations, as adaptations

  8. Turbidites as proxy for past flood events: Testing this approach in a large clastic system (Lake Geneva, France/Switzerland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Katrina; Girardclos, Stéphanie

    2017-04-01

    Turbidites recorded in lake sediments are often used to reconstruct the frequency of past flood and also seismological events. However, for such a reconstruction, the origin and causes of the recorded turbidites need to be clearly identified. In this study, we test if turbidites can be used as paleohydrological archive based on the the sedimentary record of Lake Geneva resulting from inputs by the Rhone and Dranse clastic river systems. Our approach is based on several methods combining high-resolution seismic reflection data with geophysical (magnetic susceptibility, grain size) and high-resolution XRF/XRD data measured on ca. 10-m-long sediment cores (dated by radiocarbon ages and 137Cs activity). This dataset allows distinguishing between the different sources (rivers or hemipelagic sediment) of the turbidites deposited in the deep basin of Lake Geneva. However, no clear distinction between the various trigger processes (mass failures or floods) could be made, thus flood deposits could not be clearly identified. From our results, we also conclude that the lack of turbidite deposits in the deep basin between the 15th and 18th century seems to be linked to a change in turbidite depocentre due to the Rhone River mouth shifting possibly triggered by human activity and not by any direct climate effect. This study demonstrates that a least two conditions are needed to perform an adequate paleohydrological interpretation based on turbidite records: (1) the holistic understanding of the basin sedimentary system and (2) the distinction of flood-induced turbidites from other types of turbidites (mass failures etc.).

  9. Impact of Aluminum on Anticipated Corrosion in a Flooded spent nuclear fuel Multi -Canister Overpack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DUNCAN, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    Corrosion reactions in a flooded MCO are examined to determine the impact of aluminum corrosion products (from aluminum basket grids and spacers) on bound water estimates and subsequent fuel/environment reactions during storage. The mass and impact of corrosion products were determined to be insignificant, validating the choice of aluminum as an MCO component and confirming expectations that no changes to the Technical Databook or particulate mass or water content are necessary

  10. Impact of Aluminum on Anticipated Corrosion in a Flooded SNF Multi Canister Overpack (MCO)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DUNCAN, D.R.

    1999-07-06

    Corrosion reactions in a flooded MCO are examined to determine the impact of aluminum corrosion products (from aluminum basket grids and spacers) on bound water estimates and subsequent fuel/environment reactions during storage. The mass and impact of corrosion products were determined to be insignificant, validating the choice of aluminum as an MCO component and confirming expectations that no changes to the Technical Databook or particulate mass or water content are necessary.

  11. Impact of Aluminum on Anticipated Corrosion in a Flooded SNF Multi Canister Overpack (MCO); FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DUNCAN, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    Corrosion reactions in a flooded MCO are examined to determine the impact of aluminum corrosion products (from aluminum basket grids and spacers) on bound water estimates and subsequent fuel/environment reactions during storage. The mass and impact of corrosion products were determined to be insignificant, validating the choice of aluminum as an MCO component and confirming expectations that no changes to the Technical Databook or particulate mass or water content are necessary

  12. Comparison of different multi-objective calibration criteria using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model of flood events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Moussa

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available A conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff flood event model was developed and applied on the Gardon catchment located in Southern France and various single-objective and multi-objective functions were used for its calibration. The model was calibrated on 15 events and validated on 14 others. The results of both the calibration and validation phases are compared on the basis of their performance with regards to six criteria, three global criteria and three relative criteria representing volume, peakflow, and the root mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to large events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent on the type of criteria used. Significant trade-offs are observed between the different objectives: no unique set of parameters is able to satisfy all objectives simultaneously. Instead, the solution to the calibration problem is given by a set of Pareto optimal solutions. From this set of optimal solutions, a balanced aggregated objective function is proposed, as a compromise between up to three objective functions. The single-objective and multi-objective calibration strategies are compared both in terms of parameter variation bounds and simulation quality. The results of this study indicate that two well chosen and non-redundant objective functions are sufficient to calibrate the model and that the use of three objective functions does not necessarily yield different results. The problems of non-uniqueness in model calibration, and the choice of the adequate objective functions for flood event models, emphasise the importance of the modeller's intervention. The recent advances in automatic optimisation techniques do not minimise the user's responsibility, who has to choose multiple criteria based on the aims of the study, his appreciation on the errors induced by data and model structure and his knowledge of the

  13. Impacts of urban development and climate change in exposing cities to pluvial flooding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard

    Urban areas are characterized by very high concentrations of people and economic activities and are thus particularly vulnerable to flooding dur ing extreme precipitation. Urban development and climate change are among the key drivers of changes in the exposure of cities to the occurrence...... and impacts of pluvial flooding. Cities are often dominated by large areas of impervious surfaces, that is, man-made sealed surfaces which water cannot penetrate, and increases in these – for example, as a consequence of urban development – can cause elevated run-off volumes and flood levels during...... precipitation. Climate change is expected to affect the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation, with increases projected for many regions, including most parts of Europe....

  14. Late Eocene impact events recorded in deep-sea sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, B. P.

    1988-01-01

    Raup and Sepkoski proposed that mass extinctions have occurred every 26 Myr during the last 250 Myr. In order to explain this 26 Myr periodicity, it was proposed that the mass extinctions were caused by periodic increases in cometary impacts. One method to test this hypothesis is to determine if there were periodic increases in impact events (based on crater ages) that correlate with mass extinctions. A way to test the hypothesis that mass extinctions were caused by periodic increases in impact cratering is to look for evidence of impact events in deep-sea deposits. This method allows direct observation of the temporal relationship between impact events and extinctions as recorded in the sedimentary record. There is evidence in the deep-sea record for two (possibly three) impact events in the late Eocene. The younger event, represented by the North American microtektite layer, is not associated with an Ir anomaly. The older event, defined by the cpx spherule layer, is associated with an Ir anomaly. However, neither of the two impact events recorded in late Eocene deposits appears to be associated with an unusual number of extinctions. Thus there is little evidence in the deep-sea record for an impact-related mass extinction in the late Eocene.

  15. Predicting impact of SLR on coastal flooding in Banda Aceh coastal defences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al'ala, Musa; Syamsidik, Kato, Shigeru

    2017-10-01

    Banda Aceh is a low-lying city located at the northern tip of Sumatra Island and situated at the conjuncture of Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea. A Sea Level Rise (SLR) rate at 7 mm/year has been observed around this region. In the next 50 years, this city will face a serious challenge to encounter impacts of the sea level rise, such as frequent coastal floodings. This study is aimed at estimating impacts of the sea level rise induced coastal floodings on several types of coastal structures and city drainage system. Numerical simulations of Delft3D were applied to investigate the influence of the gradual sea level rise in 50 years. The hydrodynamic process of coastal flooding and sediment transport were simulated by Delft3D-Flow. Topography and bathymetry data were collected from GEBCO and updated with the available nautical chart (DISHIDROS, JICA, and field measurements). Hydrodynamic process gains the flow process revealing the level of the sea water intrusion also observed in the model. Main rivers (Krueng Aceh, Krueng Neng, and Alue Naga Flood Canal) and the drainage system were observed to see the tides effects on coastal structures and drainage system. The impact on coastal community focusing on affected area, shoreline retreat, the rate of sea intrusion was analyzed with spatial tools. New coastal line, coastal flooding vulnerable area, and the community susceptibility properties map influenced by 50 years sea level rise is produced. This research found that the city needs to address strategies to anticipate the exacerbating impacts of the sea level rise by managing its coastal spatial planning and modify its drainage system, especially at the drainage outlets.

  16. Quantification of Multiple Climate Change and Human Activity Impact Factors on Flood Regimes in the Pearl River Delta of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihan Tang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal flood regimes have been irreversibly altered by both climate change and human activities. This paper aims to quantify the impacts of multiple factors on delta flood. The Pearl River Delta (PRD, with dense river network and population, is one of the most developed coastal areas in China. The recorded extreme water level (m.s.l. in flood season has been heavily interfered with by varied income flood flow, sea-level rise, and dredged riverbeds. A methodology, composed of a numerical model and the index R, has been developed to quantify the impacts of these driving factors in the the PRD. Results show that the flood level varied 4.29%–53.49% from the change of fluvial discharge, 3.35%–38.73% from riverbed dredging, and 0.12%–16.81% from sea-level rise. The variation of flood flow apparently takes the most effect and sea-level rise the least. In particular, dense river network intensifies the impact of income flood change and sea-level rise. Findings from this study help understand the causes of the the PRD flood regimes and provide theoretical support for flood protection in the delta region.

  17. The hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia: social impacts and triggering conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Susana; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Zêzere, José L.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Vaquero, José M.

    2015-04-01

    According to the Disaster database (Zêzere et al., 2014), a Disaster event is a set of flood and landslide cases sharing the same trigger, which may have a widespread spatial extension and a certain magnitude. The Disaster event with the highest number of floods and landslides cases occurred in Portugal in the period 1865-2010 was registered between 20 and 28 December 1909. This event also caused important socioeconomic impacts over the Spanish territory, especially in the Douro basin and in the northern section of the Tagus basin. Despite such widespread impact in western Iberia there is no scientific publication addressing the triggering conditions and the social consequences of this disastrous event. Therefore, this work aims to characterize the spatial distribution and social impacts of the December 1909 hydro-geomorphologic event over Iberia. In addition, the meteorological conditions that triggered the event are analysed using the 20 Century Reanalysis dataset from NOAA and rainfall data from Iberian meteorological stations. The historical data source used to analyse the event of December 1909 in Portugal is the Disaster Database (Zêzere et al., 2014). This database contains detailed data on the spatial location and social impacts (fatalities, injuries, missing people, evacuated and homeless people) of hydro-geomorphologic disasters (flood and landslide cases) occurred in Portugal (1865-2010) and referred in newspapers. In Spain the data collection process was supported by the systematic analysis of daily newspapers and using the same entry criteria of the Disaster database, to ensure data integrity and enable comparison with Portuguese records. The Iberian Peninsula was spatially affected during this event along the SW-NE direction spanning between Lisbon, Santarém, Porto and Guarda (in Portugal), until Salamanca, Valladolid, Zamora, Orense, León, Palencia (in Spain). The social and economic impacts of the December 1909 disaster event were higher on the

  18. Channel Geometry and Flood Flows: Quantifying over-bank flow dynamics during high-flow events in North Carolina's floodplains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovette, J. P.; Duncan, J. M.; Vimal, S.; Band, L. E.

    2015-12-01

    Natural riparian areas play numerous roles in the maintenance and improvement of stream water quality. Both restoration of riparian areas and improvement of hydrologic connectivity to the stream are often key goals of river restoration projects. These management actions are designed to improve nutrient removal by slowing and treating overland flow delivered from uplands and by storing, treating, and slowly releasing streamwater from overbank inundation during flood events. A major question is how effective this storage of overbank flow is at treating streamwater based on the cumulative time stream discharge at a downstream location has spent in shallower, slower overbank flow. The North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program maintains a detailed statewide Flood Risk Information System (FRIS) using HEC-RAS modeling, lidar, and detailed surveyed river cross-sections. FRIS provides extensive information regarding channel geometry on approximately 39,000 stream reaches (a slightly coarser spatial resolution than the NHD+v2 dataset) with tens of cross-sections for each reach. We use this FRIS data to calculate volume and discharge from floodplain riparian areas separately from in-channel flow during overbank events. Preliminary results suggest that a small percentage of total annual discharge interacts with the full floodplain extent along a stream reach due to the infrequency of overbank flow events. However, with the significantly different physical characteristics of the riparian area when compared to the channel itself, this overbank flow can provide unique services to water quality. Our project aims to use this information in conjunction with data from the USGS SPARROW program to target non-point source hotspots of Nitrogen and Phosphorus addition and removal. By better understanding the flow dynamics within riparian areas during high flow events, riparian restoration projects can be carried out with improved efficacy.

  19. Nonlinear impacts of small-scale natural events on Nineteenth Century human decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, S. M.; Schlichting, K. M.; Urbanova, T.; Allen, T. L.; Ruffing, C. M.; Hermans, C. M.

    2009-12-01

    Natural climatological events that occurred throughout the Nineteenth Century, such as floods, droughts and hurricanes had long-lived, far-reaching consequences on the human decision-making processes occurring in the northeast United States. These events impacted the hydrological cycle, both directly -though the building of various structures- and indirectly - through an increased understanding of science; and the changing relationship between humans and their environment. This paper examines these events and associated processes through: 1) identifying specific natural events throughout the time period, occurring globally, with initial conditions conducive to long-lived consequences; 2) examining the relationship between scientific enquiry, natural events and the proliferation of dams in the northeast landscape; and 3) the growth of public health concerns, awareness of bacteriology, and municipal water supply systems. Results of this research indicate that the relationship between knowledge systems, natural events and subsequent engineering or technological fixes is complex and highly dependent on initial conditions. It highlights the time period where humans became increasingly dependent on engineered solutions to environmental problems, many of which still hold fast in our contemporary landscape. It is relevant to natural, social and governance structures in place today. The principles behind the occurrence of the natural phenomena and subsequent research and design have not changed; and understanding key events or stages in the past is tantamount to making predictions for the future.

  20. Land cover change impact on urban flood modeling (case study: Upper Citarum watershed)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-03-01

    The upper Citarum River watershed utilizes remote sensing technology in Geographic Information System to provide information on land coverage by interpretation of objects in the image. Rivers that pass through urban areas will cause flooding problems causing disadvantages, and it disrupts community activities in the urban area. Increased development in a city is related to an increase in the number of population growth that added by increasing quality and quantity of life necessities. Improved urban lifestyle changes have an impact on land cover. The impact in over time will be difficult to control. This study aims to analyze the condition of flooding in urban areas caused by upper Citarum watershed land-use change in 2001 with the land cover change in 2010. This modeling analyzes with the help of HEC-RAS to describe flooded inundation urban areas. Land cover change in upper Citarum watershed is not very significant; it based on the results of data processing of land cover has the difference of area that changed is not enormous. Land cover changes for the floods increased dramatically to a flow coefficient for 2001 is 0.65 and in 2010 at 0.69. In 2001, the inundation area about 105,468 hectares and it were about 92,289 hectares in 2010.

  1. Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie

    2017-12-05

    This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.

  2. Forecasting surface water flooding hazard and impact in real-time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Steven J.; Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.

    2016-04-01

    Across the world, there is increasing demand for more robust and timely forecast and alert information on Surface Water Flooding (SWF). Within a UK context, the government Pitt Review into the Summer 2007 floods provided recommendations and impetus to improve the understanding of SWF risk for both off-line design and real-time forecasting and warning. Ongoing development and trial of an end-to-end real-time SWF system is being progressed through the recently formed Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) with delivery to the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) providing coverage over England & Wales. The NHP is a unique forum that aims to deliver coordinated assessments, research and advice on natural hazards for governments and resilience communities across the UK. Within the NHP, a real-time Hazard Impact Model (HIM) framework has been developed that includes SWF as one of three hazards chosen for initial trialling. The trial SWF HIM system uses dynamic gridded surface-runoff estimates from the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) hydrological model to estimate the SWF hazard. National datasets on population, infrastructure, property and transport are available to assess impact severity for a given rarity of SWF hazard. Whilst the SWF hazard footprint is calculated in real-time using 1, 3 and 6 hour accumulations of G2G surface runoff on a 1 km grid, it has been possible to associate these with the effective rainfall design profiles (at 250m resolution) used as input to a detailed flood inundation model (JFlow+) run offline to produce hazard information resolved to 2m resolution. This information is contained in the updated Flood Map for Surface Water (uFMfSW) held by the Environment Agency. The national impact datasets can then be used with the uFMfSW SWF hazard dataset to assess impacts at this scale and severity levels of potential impact assigned at 1km and for aggregated county areas in real-time. The impact component is being led by the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) within the NHP

  3. The impact of recurrent disasters on mental health: a study on seasonal floods in northern India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wind, Tim R; Joshi, Pooran C; Kleber, Rolf J; Komproe, Ivan H

    2013-06-01

    Very little is known on the impact of recurrent disasters on mental health. Aim The present study examines the immediate impact of a recurrent flood on mental health and functioning among an affected population in the rural district of Bahraich, Uttar Pradesh, India, compared with a population in the same region that is not affected by floods. The study compared 318 affected respondents with 308 individuals who were not affected by floods. Symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed by the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25 (HSCL-25). Psychological and physical functioning was assessed by using the Short Form-12 (SF-12). The affected group showed large to very large differences with the comparison group on symptoms of anxiety (D = .92) and depression (D = 1.22). The affected group scored significantly lower on psychological and physical functioning than the comparison group (respectively D = .33 and D = .80). However, hierarchical linear regressions showed no significant relationship between mental health and the domains of functioning in the affected group, whereas mental health and the domains of functioning were significantly related in the comparison group. This study found a large negative impact of the recurrent floods on mental health outcomes and psychological and physical functioning. However, in a context with recurrent floods, disaster mental health status is not a relevant predictor of functioning. The findings suggest that the observed mental health status and impaired functioning in this context are also outcomes of another mechanism: Both outcomes are likely to be related to the erosion of the social and environmental and material context. As such, the findings refer to a need to implement psychosocial context-oriented interventions to address the erosion of the context rather than specific mental health interventions.

  4. Variation in experimental flood impacts and ecogeomorphic feedbacks among native and exotic riparian tree seedlings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kui, L.; Stella, J. C.; Skorko, K.; Lightbody, A.; Wilcox, A. C.; Bywater-Reyes, S.

    2012-12-01

    Flooding interacts with riparian plants on a variety of scales, resulting in coevolution of geomorphic surfaces with plant vegetation communities. Our research aims to develop a mechanistic understanding of riparian seedling damage from small floods, with a focus on differential responses among species (native and non-native), ecogeomorphic feedbacks, and implications for riparian restoration. We tested the effects of controlled flood events on cottonwood (Populus fremontii) and tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) seedlings in an experimental meandering stream channel. We hypothesized that seedling dislodgement and burial would be influenced by individual plant height, species-specific morphology, patch density, and differences in hydraulic forces (as a function of location on the bar). Four experimental floods were tested, with different combinations of plant species and seedling densities. For each flood run, rooted seedlings were installed within a 1.5-m-wide sandbar during low flow conditions and stream discharge was increased to a constant flood level for approximately 8 hours, after which seedling response was assessed. Seedling damage was analyzed within a logistic regression framework that predicted the probability of dislodgement or burial as a function of the explanatory variables. Plant dislodgement depended on root length and the location on the sandbar, whereas burial depended on plant height, species-specific morphology, and location. For every centimeter increase in plant height, the odds of plant burial decreased by 10 percent, illustrating the rate at which plants developed flood resistance as they grow taller. With every meter closer to the thalweg, plant dislodgement was four times more likely, and plant burial was 2.6 times more likely. The probability of burial was twice as great for tamarisk seedlings as for cottonwood. The increased sedimentation within tamarisk patches was associated with a denser foliage and a more compact crown for this species. The

  5. Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters in Megacities: The Case of Floods in São Paulo, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Haddad, Eduardo; Teixeira, Eliane

    2013-01-01

    The city of São Paulo, home to 11 million people, suffers constantly the effects of flooding caused by extreme precipitation. Localized floods occur every summer in various parts of the city. Besides the losses and inconvenience felt by the residents, floods produce damages that cross the city boundaries, affecting income and output in the metropolitan area as well as in other parts of the state and the country. The objective of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of floods in the ...

  6. Safety case methodology for decommissioning of research reactors. Assessment of the long term impact of a flooding scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vladescu, G.; Banciu, O.

    1999-01-01

    The paper contains the assessment methodology of a Safety Case fuel decommissioning of research reactors, taking into account the international approach principles. The paper also includes the assessment of a flooding scenario for a decommissioned research reactor (stage 1 of decommissioning). The scenario presents the flooding of reactor basement, radionuclide migration through environment and long term radiological impact for public. (authors)

  7. Climate Change Impacts on Flood risk in Urban Areas due to Combined Effects of Extreme Precipitation and Sea Surges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Climate change will impact the hydrological cycle greatly and lead to increases in flood hazards due to both pluvial and fluvial floods as well as sea surges in many regions. The impacts of the individual effects are analysed for a catchment in Greater Copenhagen. Based on both the present...... surges. Presently the most important hazard is due to extreme precipitation. However, due to climate change impacts the future most important hazard is due to sea surges. The increase in probability of floods is substantial over a 70 year horizon and actions must be taken to decrease either the hazards...

  8. Modelling the Impacts of Changing Land Cover/Land Use and Climate on Flooding in the Elk River Watershed, British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; Hopkinson, C.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The Elk River is a mountain watershed located along the eastern border of British Columbia, Canada. The Elk River is confined by railway bridges, roads, and urban areas. Flooding has been a concern in the valley for more than a century. The most recent major flood event occurred in 2013 affecting several communities. River modifications such as riprapped dykes, channelization, and dredging have occurred in an attempt to reduce inundation, with limited success. Significant changes in land cover/land use (LCLU) such as natural state to urban, forestry practices, and mining from underground to mountaintop/valley fill have changed terrain and ground surfaces thereby altering water infiltration and runoff processes in the watershed. Future climate change in this region is expected to alter air temperature and precipitation as well as produce an earlier seasonal spring freshet potentially impacting future flood events. The objective of this research is to model historical and future hydrological conditions to identify flood frequency and risk under a range of climate and LCLU change scenarios in the Elk River watershed. Historic remote sensing data, forest management plans, and mining industry production/post-mining reclamation plans will be used to create a predictive past and future LCLU time series. A range of future air temperature and precipitation scenarios will be developed based on accepted Global Climate Modelling (GCM) research to examine how the hydrometeorological conditions may be altered under a range of future climate scenarios. The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model will be used to simulate climate and LCLU to assess historic and potential future flood frequency and magnitude. Results will be used to create innovative flood mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies for the Elk River with the intent of being wildlife friendly and non-destructive to ecosystems and habitats for native species.

  9. Impacts of 21st century sea-level rise on a Danish major city - an assessment based on fine-resolution digital topography and a new flooding algorithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moeslund, Jesper Erenskjold; Bøcher, Peter Klith; Svenning, J.-C.

    2009-01-01

    by future sea-level rise to Aarhus. Under the A2 and A1FI (IPCC) climate scenarios we show that relatively large residential areas in the northern part of the city as well as areas around the river running through the city are likely to become flooded in the event of extreme, but realistic weather events......This study examines the potential impact of 21st century sea-level rise on Aarhus, the second largest city in Denmark, emphasizing the economic risk to the city's real estate. Furthermore, it assesses which possible adaptation measures that can be taken to prevent flooding in areas particularly...... to those produced in this study will become an important tool for a climate-change-integrated planning of future city development as well as for the development of evacuation plans....

  10. The application of the Contingent Valuation method towards the assessment of the impacts emerged from the March 2006 floods in the Evros River. An experts-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markantonis, V.; Bithas, K.

    2009-04-01

    information is accessed and used is ultimately up to the respondent. In addition, the future trends of floods in the Evros River Basin are presented, linking the socio-economic framework with the physical conditions of climate change. The forecast of the future precipitation trends in the Evros River has been realized at the Bjerkness Climate Change Center, Norway (May - July 2006). The objective of this forecast is to identify the future extreme precipitation trends in the Evros River Basin applying the global change models and identifying the differences between the present climate and the IPCC scenarios for the future climate. The scenario used for the present climate was the ‘20C3M' and the scenarios used for the future climate was the ‘SRES A2' and the ‘SRES A1B as well. The climate change models used were the following: BCM, ECHAM5_MPI, GFDL and CNRM_CM3. The analysis was based on changes concerning extreme precipitation in periods of three and seven days, which can theoritically lead to flooding events. Eventually, an application of the contingent valuation method is presented using the case study of March 2006 floods in the Evros River. In this context, the valuation scenario, the structure of the questionnaire, the elaboration of the survey and the results of the application are thoroughly illustrated. The good, or policy, being valued is the flooding impacts, focusing more at environmental aspects (soil, biodiversity, aesthetic environment). The survey includes a sample of 53 local experts in floods from various sectors such as local authorities, local public services, agricultural associations, environmental NGO's and universities. The survey is based on peer to peer interviews, which theoretically provide the most coherent results. The valuation question explores the Willingness to Pay (WTP) to Avoid future impacts of flooding formatted as an annual household fee and alternatively as a percentage of the Prefecture's GDP. In both cases the respondents are

  11. The use of water marks mapping to understand flood overflow events inside karstic cavities: Cueva Fría and Cueva Rosa (Asturias, NW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Lemos, Saúl; Stoll, Heather M.

    2014-05-01

    Several karst systems in Asturias (NW Spain) present evidence of fluvial deposits cemented in speleothems that may provide good chronology of past flood events inside the caves. This flood record is under research in two karstic caves of this region, Cueva Fría and Cueva Rosa, which have in common the presence of a perennial stream inside the cave and a low gradient of the cave passage. Immediately after a flood overflow event, water marks, foam and detritus are visible at different heights on the cave walls and correspond to heights of bottlenecks in overflow drainage through the cave passage. Flood events also deposit sand and gravel on terraces on the cave wall and move large volumes of sand in the cave bed. We have noted that detrital particles (like sand or silt particles) are preserved as inclusions inside the stalagmites and that their abundance inside coeval stalagmites decreases as altitude and distance from the perennial stream increase, supporting its fluvial affinity. However, not all the stalagmites that contain detrital particles are located close to the perennial streams. In this work, we have mapped the water marks preserved in the cave walls to reconstruct water levels associated to flood overflow events of different magnitude. We have found that water mark correlation along the cave passage is very useful to define the hydrological behaviour and flood model of the cave during these extreme events. The water mark mapping and correlation have been also useful to prove that during periods of high rainfall, the movement of the sand-bars inside the cave can cover partially or completely active stalagmites, facilitating the cementation process and trapping abundant detrital material inside the stalagmite carbonate. 14C and U/Th dating of the stalagmites can provide a chronology for the detrital rich layers, so that the abundance of fluvial material in the stalagmites can reveal periods of enhanced vs. reduced flooding in the cave over the past several

  12. Spatial impact and triggering conditions of the exceptional hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, S.; Ramos, A. M.; Zêzere, J. L.; Trigo, R. M.; Vaquero, J. M.

    2016-02-01

    According to the DISASTER database the 20-28 December 1909 event was the hydro-geomorphologic event with the highest number of flood and landslide cases that occurred in Portugal in the period 1865-2010 (Zêzere et al., 2014). This event also caused important social impacts over the Spanish territory, especially in the Douro Basin, having triggered the highest floods in more than 100 years at the river's mouth in the city of Oporto. This work has a dual purpose: (i) to characterize the spatial distribution and social impacts of the December 1909 hydro-geomorphologic DISASTER event over Portugal and Spain; (ii) to analyse the meteorological conditions that triggered the event and the spatial distribution of the precipitation anomalies. Social impacts that occurred in Portugal were obtained from the Disaster database (Zêzere et al., 2014) whereas the data collection for Spain was supported by the systematic analysis of Spanish daily newspapers. In addition, the meteorological conditions that triggered the event are analysed using the 20th Century Reanalysis data set from NOAA and precipitation data from Iberian meteorological stations. The Iberian Peninsula was spatially affected during this event along the SW-NE direction spanning from Lisbon, Santarém, Oporto, and Guarda (in Portugal), to Salamanca, Valladolid, Zamora, Orense, León, and Palencia (in Spain). In Iberia, 134 DISASTER cases were recorded (130 flood cases; 4 landslides cases) having caused 89 casualties (57 due to floods and 32 due to landslides) and a further total of 3876 affected people, including fatalities, injured, missing, evacuated, and homeless people. This event was associated with outstanding precipitation registered at Guarda (Portugal) on 22 December 1909 and unusual meteorological conditions characterized by the presence of a deep low-pressure system located over the NW Iberian Peninsula with a stationary frontal system striking the western Iberian Peninsula. The presence of an upper

  13. How crucial is it to account for the antecedent moisture conditions in flood forecasting? Comparison of event-based and continuous approaches on 178 catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Berthet

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares event-based and continuous hydrological modelling approaches for real-time forecasting of river flows. Both approaches are compared using a lumped hydrologic model (whose structure includes a soil moisture accounting (SMA store and a routing store on a data set of 178 French catchments. The main focus of this study was to investigate the actual impact of soil moisture initial conditions on the performance of flood forecasting models and the possible compensations with updating techniques. The rainfall-runoff model assimilation technique we used does not impact the SMA component of the model but only its routing part. Tests were made by running the SMA store continuously or on event basis, everything else being equal. The results show that the continuous approach remains the reference to ensure good forecasting performances. We show, however, that the possibility to assimilate the last observed flow considerably reduces the differences in performance. Last, we present a robust alternative to initialize the SMA store where continuous approaches are impossible because of data availability problems.

  14. Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. R. Mateo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Global-scale river models (GRMs are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

  15. Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateo, Cherry May R.; Yamazaki, Dai; Kim, Hyungjun; Champathong, Adisorn; Vaze, Jai; Oki, Taikan

    2017-10-01

    Global-scale river models (GRMs) are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC) is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC) is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

  16. Sedimentary and rock magnetic signatures and event scenarios of deglacial outburst floods from the Laurentian Channel Ice Stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leng, Wei; von Dobeneck, Tilo; Bergmann, Fenna; Just, Janna; Mulitza, Stefan; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; St-Onge, Guillaume; Piper, David J. W.

    2018-04-01

    Eastern Canadian margin sediments bear testimony to several catastrophic deglacial meltwater discharges from the retreating Laurentide Ice Sheet. The reddish-brown plumite layers deposited on the levees of the Laurentian Fan valleys have been recognized as indications of multiple outburst floods between Heinrich events 2 and 1. Five event layers have been consistently recorded in three new gravity cores retrieved on the SW Grand Banks slope and comply with the previously published Laurentian Fan core MD95-2029. The apparently huge extent of these outburst plumes around the Laurentian Fan as well as their causes and consequences are investigated in this study using physical properties, rock magnetic and grain-size analyses, together with seismoacoustic profiling. We provide the first detailed 14C ages of the outburst event sequence and discuss their recurrence intervals in the context of regional ice retreat. Compared to the hemipelagic interlayers, event layers have overall uniform and systematic changes of rock-magnetic properties. Hematite contents increase over time and proximally while magnetite grain sizes fine upwards and spatially away from the fan. Based on the sediment composition and load, we argue that these plumites were formed by recurrent erosion of glacial mud deposits in the Laurentian Channel by meltwater outbursts. Three alternative glaciological scenarios are evaluated: in each case, the provenance of the transported sediment is not an indicator of the precise source of the meltwater.

  17. Impact of sport events on local communities : dimensions and measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slender, Hans; Straatmeijer, Jerzy; Hover, Paul; Cevaal, Astrid

    2015-01-01

    Abstract for the European Association of Sociology for Sport conference in Dublin on the development over time of social impact evaluations in the Netherlands. In total 33 sport events were included that were held between 1980-2015 in the Netherlands. The events were selected to vary in fixed vs.

  18. Sport events and their socio-economic impact: residents ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sport events have become big business as countries as well as cities are competing fi ercely to host major events. The purpose of this article is to determine the economic impact of visitor spending during the annual Cape Argus Pick 'n Pay Cycle Tour. Direct spending was determined based on a survey consisting of 583 ...

  19. Estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veijalainen, N.

    2012-07-01

    Climate scenarios project increases in air temperature and precipitation in Finland during the 21st century and these will results in changes in hydrology. In this thesis climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland were estimated with hydrological modelling and several climate scenarios. One of the goals was to understand the influence of different processes and catchment characteristics on the hydrological response to climate change in boreal conditions. The tool of the climate change impact assessment was the conceptual hydrological model WSFS (Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System). The studies employed and compared two methods of transferring the climate change signal from climate models to the WSFS hydrological model (delta change approach and direct bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) data). Direct RCM data was used to simulate transient hydrological scenarios for 1951- 2100 and the simulation results were analysed to detect changes in water balance components and trends in discharge series. The results revealed that seasonal changes in discharges in Finland were the clearest impacts of climate change. Air temperature increase will affect snow accumulation and melt, increase winter discharge and decrease spring snowmelt discharge. The impacts of climate change on floods in Finland by 2070-2099 varied considerably depending on the location, catchment characteristics, timing of the floods and climate scenario. Floods caused by spring snowmelt decreased or remained unchanged, whereas autumn and winter floods caused by precipitation increased especially in large lakes and their outflow rivers. Since estimation of climate change impacts includes uncertainties in every step of the long modelling process, the accumulated uncertainties by the end of the process become large. The large differences between results from different climate scenarios highlight the need to use several climate scenarios in climate change impact studies

  20. Flood/Typhoon vulnerability indicators of nuclear power plant in South Korea considering climate change impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Gyu Min; Jun, Kyung Soo [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Chung, Eun Sung [Seoul National Univ of Science and technology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Min, Byung Il; Suh, Kyung Suk [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    The Republic of Korea lies in the principal course of the typhoon that is occurred to the Pacific Northwest. It has distinct monsoon wind, a rainy period from the East Asian Monsoon locally called 'Changma', typhoon, and while often heavy snowfalls in winter. It belongs to a relatively wet region due to much more precipitation than that of the world average. In the last 10 years, there frequently was a lot of damage due to flooding with typhoon. In particular, the damage was estimated at up to 5,000 billion KRW by the USA in 2002. Lately, after the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and resultant tsunami hit Japan on March 11, 2011, consecutively approached Typhoon Ro ke made a larger threat. Although it fortunately passed without significant impact. That is, not only typhoon and flood are one of a threat to nuclear power plant but also it could lead to overwhelming damage when it overlapped the other accident. Therefore, flood/typhoon vulnerability assessment could provide important information for the safety management of nuclear power plants. This study derived all the feasible indicators and their corresponding weights for a Flood/Typhoon Vulnerability Index (FTVI) to nuclear power plant considering climate change. In addition selection of the candidates and determination of their weights were estimated using a Delphi process, which is an advanced method for opinion measurement.

  1. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  2. Challenges in Downscaling Surge and Flooding Predictions Associated with Major Coastal Storm Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, M. J.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal zone managers, elected officials and emergency planning personnel are continually seeking more reliable estimates of storm surge and inundation for better land use planning, the design, construction and operation of coastal defense systems, resilience evaluation and evacuation planning. Customers of modern regional weather and storm surge prediction models demand high resolution, speed, accuracy, with informative, interactive graphics and easy evaluation of potentially dangerous threats to life and property. These challenges continue to get more difficult as the demand for street-scale and even building-scale predictions increase. Fluctuations in sub-grid-scale wind and water velocities can lead to unsuspected, unanticipated and dangerous flooding in local communities. But how reliable and believable are these models given the inherent natural uncertainty and chaotic behavior in the underlying dynamics, which can lead to rapid and unexpected perturbations in the wind and pressure fields and hence coastal flooding? Traditionally this uncertainty has been quantified by the use of the ensemble method, where a suite of model runs are made with varying physics and initial conditions, presenting the mean and variance of the ensemble as the best metrics possible. But this assumes that each component is equally possible and is statistically independent of the others. But this is rarely true, although the "safety in numbers" approach is comforting to those faced with life and death decisions. An example of the ensemble method is presented for the trajectory of superstorm Sandy's storm center as it approached coastal New Jersey. If one were to ask the question "was Sandy a worst case scenario", the answer would be "no: small variations in the timing (vis-à-vis tide phase) and location of landfall could easily have led to an additional surge of +50 cm at The Battery NY with even more catastrophic consequences to those experienced".

  3. Extreme events in the Dudetes Mountains - Their long-term geomorphic impact and possible controlling factors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Migon, P.; Hrádek, Mojmír; Parzoch, K.

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 36 (2002), s. 29-49 ISSN 0081-6434 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3086906 Keywords : extreme events * debris flow * landslide-floods Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

  4. The Impact of Drainage Network Structure on Flooding in a Small Urban Watershed in Metropolitan Baltimore, MD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meierdiercks, K. L.; Smith, J. A.; Miller, A. J.

    2006-12-01

    The impact of urban development on watershed-scale hydrology is examined in a small urban watershed in the Metropolitan Baltimore area. Analyses focus on Dead Run, a 14.3 km2 tributary of the Gwynns Falls, which is the principal study watershed of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study. Field observations of rainfall and discharge have been collected for storms occurring in the 2003, 2004, and 2005 warm seasons including the flood of record for the USGS Dead Run at Franklintown gage (7 July 2004), in which 5 inches of rain fell in less than 4 hours. Dead Run has stream gages at 6 locations with drainage areas ranging from 1.2 to 14.3 km2. Hydrologic response to storm events varies greatly in each of the subwatersheds due to the diverse development types located there. These subwatersheds range in land use from medium-density residential, with and without stormwater management control, to commercial/light industrial with large impervious lots and an extensive network of stormwater management ponds. The unique response of each subwatershed is captured using field observations in conjunction with the EPA Stormwater Management Model (SWMM), which routes storm runoff over the land surface and through the drainage network of a watershed. Of particular importance to flood response is the structure of the drainage network (both surface channels and storm drain network) and its connectivity to preferential flow paths within the watershed. The Dead Run drainage network has been delineated using geospatial data derived from aerial photography and engineering planning drawings. Model analyses are used to examine the characteristics of flow paths that control flood response in urban watersheds. These analyses aim to identify patterns in urban flow pathways and use those patterns to predict response in other urban watersheds.

  5. Analysis of safety impacts from external flooding using the risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) Toolkit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Curtis L.; Mandelli, Diego; Prescott, Steve

    2015-01-01

    The existing fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants is in the process of extending its lifetime and increasing the power generated from these plants via power uprates. In order to evaluate the impact of these factors on the safety of the plant, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) project aims to provide insight to decision makers through a series of simulations of the plant dynamics for different initial conditions (e.g., probabilistic analysis and uncertainty quantification). This paper demonstrates how Idaho National Laboratory (INL) researchers use the RISMC Toolkit to investigate complex nuclear plant phenomena using RAVEN and RELAP-7. The analysis focused on a highly relevant topic currently facing some nuclear power plants – specifically flooding issues. This research and development looked at challenges to a hypothetical pressurized water reactor, including: (1) a potential loss of off-site power followed by the possible loss of all diesel generators (i.e., a station black-out event), (2) earthquake induced station-blackout, and (3) a potential earthquake induced tsunami flood. The analysis is performed by using a set of codes: a thermal-hydraulic code (RELAP-7), a flooding simulation tool (NEUTRINO) and a stochastic analysis tool (RAVEN) – these are currently under development at INL. Using RAVEN, we were able to perform multiple RELAP-7 simulation runs by changing specific parts of the model in order to reflect specific aspects of different scenarios, including both the failure and recovery of critical components. The simulation employed traditional statistical tools (such as Monte-Carlo sampling) and more advanced machine-learning based algorithms to perform uncertainty quantification in order to understand changes in system performance and limitations as a consequence of power uprate. Qualitative and quantitative results obtained gave a detailed picture of the issues associated with potential accident scenarios. These types of

  6. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2013-07-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are

  7. Simulation of the catastrophic floods caused by extreme rainfall events - Uh River basin case study

    OpenAIRE

    Pekárová, Pavla; Halmová, Dana; Mitková, Veronika

    2005-01-01

    The extreme rainfall events in Central and East Europe on August 2002 rise the question, how other basins would respond on such rainfall situations. Such theorisation helps us to arrange in advance the necessary activity in the basin to reduce the consequence of the assumed disaster. The aim of the study is to recognise a reaction of the Uh River basin (Slovakia, Ukraine) to the simulated catastrophic rainfall events from August 2002. Two precipitation scenarios, sc1 and sc2, were created. Th...

  8. Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing Approach with Hydrologic Rational Model for Flood Event Analysis in Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aditya, M. R.; Hernina, R.; Rokhmatuloh

    2017-12-01

    Rapid development in Jakarta which generates more impervious surface has reduced the amount of rainfall infiltration into soil layer and increases run-off. In some events, continuous high rainfall intensity could create sudden flood in Jakarta City. This article used rainfall data of Jakarta during 10 February 2015 to compute rainfall intensity and then interpolate it with ordinary kriging technique. Spatial distribution of rainfall intensity then overlaid with run-off coefficient based on certain land use type of the study area. Peak run-off within each cell resulted from hydrologic rational model then summed for the whole study area to generate total peak run-off. For this study area, land use types consisted of 51.9 % industrial, 37.57% parks, and 10.54% residential with estimated total peak run-off 6.04 m3/sec, 0.39 m3/sec, and 0.31 m3/sec, respectively.

  9. Intelligent Flood Adaptive Context-aware System: How Wireless Sensors Adapt their Configuration based on Environmental Phenomenon Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie SUN

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Henceforth, new generations of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN have to be able to adapt their behavior to collect, from the study phenomenon, quality data for long periods of time. We have thus proposed a new formalization for the design and the implementation of context-aware systems relying on a WSN for the data collection. To illustrate this proposal, we also present an environmental use case: the study of flood events in a watershed. In this paper, we detail the simulation tool that we have developed in order to implement our model. We simulate several scenarios of context-aware systems to monitor a watershed. The data used for the simulation are the observation data of the French Orgeval watershed.

  10. Integrated remote sensing imagery and two-dimensional hydraulic modeling approach for impact evaluation of flood on crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huili; Liang, Zhongyao; Liu, Yong; Liang, Qiuhua; Xie, Shuguang

    2017-10-01

    The projected frequent occurrences of extreme flood events will cause significant losses to crops and will threaten food security. To reduce the potential risk and provide support for agricultural flood management, prevention, and mitigation, it is important to account for flood damage to crop production and to understand the relationship between flood characteristics and crop losses. A quantitative and effective evaluation tool is therefore essential to explore what and how flood characteristics will affect the associated crop loss, based on accurately understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of flood evolution and crop growth. Current evaluation methods are generally integrally or qualitatively based on statistic data or ex-post survey with less diagnosis into the process and dynamics of historical flood events. Therefore, a quantitative and spatial evaluation framework is presented in this study that integrates remote sensing imagery and hydraulic model simulation to facilitate the identification of historical flood characteristics that influence crop losses. Remote sensing imagery can capture the spatial variation of crop yields and yield losses from floods on a grid scale over large areas; however, it is incapable of providing spatial information regarding flood progress. Two-dimensional hydraulic model can simulate the dynamics of surface runoff and accomplish spatial and temporal quantification of flood characteristics on a grid scale over watersheds, i.e., flow velocity and flood duration. The methodological framework developed herein includes the following: (a) Vegetation indices for the critical period of crop growth from mid-high temporal and spatial remote sensing imagery in association with agricultural statistics data were used to develop empirical models to monitor the crop yield and evaluate yield losses from flood; (b) The two-dimensional hydraulic model coupled with the SCS-CN hydrologic model was employed to simulate the flood evolution process

  11. Decrease in hydroclimatic conditions generating floods in the southeast of Belgium over the last 50 years resulting from changes in seasonal snow cover and extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyard, Coraline; Fettweis, Xavier

    2016-04-01

    As a consequence of climate change, several studies concluded that winter flood occurrence could increase in the future in many rivers of northern and western Europe in response to an increase in extreme precipitation events. This study aims to determine if trends in extreme hydroclimatic events generating floods can already be detected over the last century. In particular, we focus on the Ourthe River (southeast of Belgium) which is one of the main tributaries of the Meuse River with a catchment area of 3500 km². In this river, most of the floods occur during winter and about 50% of them are due to rainfall events associated with the melting of the snow which covers the Ardennes during winter. In this study, hydroclimatic conditions favorable to flooding were reconstructed over the 20th century using the regional climate model MAR ("Modèle Atmosphérique Régional") forced by the following reanalyses: the ERA-20C, the ERA-Interim and the NCEP/NCAR-v1. The use of the MAR model allows to compute precipitation, snow depth and run-off resulting from precipitation events and snow melting in any part of the Ourthe river catchment area. Therefore, extreme hydroclimatic events, namely extreme run-off events, which could potentially generate floods, can be reconstructed using the MAR model. As validation, the MAR results were compared to weather station-based data. A trend analysis was then performed in order to study the evolution of conditions favorable to flooding in the Ourthe River catchment. The results show that the MAR model allows the detection of more than 95% of the hydroclimatic conditions which effectively generated observed floods in the Ourthe River over the 1974-2014 period. Conditions favorable to flooding present a negative trend over the last 50 years as a result of a decrease in snow accumulation and in extreme precipitation events. However, significance of these trends depends on the reanalysis used to force the regional climate model as well as the

  12. Floods and Flash Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

  13. Flood model for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

    2017-04-01

    Looking on the impact of flooding from the World-wide perspective, in last 50 years flooding has caused over 460,000 fatalities and caused serious material damage. Combining economic loss from ten costliest flood events (from the same period) returns a loss (in the present value) exceeding 300bn USD. Locally, in Brazil, flood is the most damaging natural peril with alarming increase of events frequencies as 5 out of the 10 biggest flood losses ever recorded have occurred after 2009. The amount of economic and insured losses particularly caused by various flood types was the key driver of the local probabilistic flood model development. Considering the area of Brazil (being 5th biggest country in the World) and the scattered distribution of insured exposure, a domain covered by the model was limited to the entire state of Sao Paolo and 53 additional regions. The model quantifies losses on approx. 90 % of exposure (for regular property lines) of key insurers. Based on detailed exposure analysis, Impact Forecasting has developed this tool using long term local hydrological data series (Agencia Nacional de Aguas) from riverine gauge stations and digital elevation model (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). To provide most accurate representation of local hydrological behaviour needed for the nature of probabilistic simulation, a hydrological data processing focused on frequency analyses of seasonal peak flows - done by fitting appropriate extreme value statistical distribution and stochastic event set generation consisting of synthetically derived flood events respecting realistic spatial and frequency patterns visible in entire period of hydrological observation. Data were tested for homogeneity, consistency and for any significant breakpoint occurrence in time series so the entire observation or only its subparts were used for further analysis. The realistic spatial patterns of stochastic events are reproduced through the innovative use of d-vine copula

  14. Public outreach, participatory communication, and communication impact assessment in Paris flood resilience policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicari, Rosa; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    Adverse social impacts can reduce the intended benefits of a project aimed to reduce flood risks, and can threaten its viability if they are severe enough. In some other cases, the diverse impacts may mutually counter-balance each other, by furthermore strengthening and amplifying the social resilience. Social changes include those associated with the phenomenon known as the social construction of reality. In the case of proposed actions that involve controversy, attitudes and perceptions toward a proposed policy change are one of the variables that must be considered in determining the significance of impacts. This research entails an analysis of public authorities strategic documents developed during the last ten years in the context of strengthening Paris flood resilience. The review highlights a clear trend to encourage citizen participation and to share responsibilities with the population. This trend does not only express a political will to apply the principle of subsidiarity and decentralise risk management, it also springs from a growing awareness among public institutions of the impact that social construction of the reality can have. Hence the communication between local governments and citizens, especially a two-ways dialogue (i.e. participatory communication), has become a keystone of resilience strategies since it facilitates mutual understanding, shared goals identification and cooperation. More and more frequently flood resilience projects entail a communication strategy or focus on communication actions. However not all these project identify clear communication objectives, target audiences or monitor communication impact. Measuring communication indicators allows decision makers to compare the costs of communication actions with the economic, environmental, social, and sanitary costs of non-action. Those metrics also help to set up clear communication objectives at the beginning of a project, to evaluate and improve management capacities, to

  15. Impacts of Non-Stationarity in Climate on Flood Intensity-Duration-Frequency: Case Studies in Mountainous Areas with Snowmelt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Z.; Ren, H.; Sun, N.; Leung, L. R.; Liu, Y.; Coleman, A. M.; Skaggs, R.; Wigmosta, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic engineering design usually involves intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) analysis for calculating runoff from a design storm of specified precipitation frequency and duration using event-based hydrologic rainfall-runoff models. Traditionally, the procedure assumes climate stationarity and neglects snowmelt-driven runoff contribution to floods. In this study, we used high resolution climate simulations to provide inputs to the physics-based Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to determine the spatially distributed precipitation and snowmelt available for runoff. Climate model outputs were extracted around different mountainous field sites in Colorado and California. IDF curves were generated at each numerical grid of DHSVM based on the simulated precipitation, temperature, and available water for runoff. Quantitative evaluation of trending and stationarity tests were conducted to identify (quasi-)stationary time periods for reliable IDF analysis. The impact of stationarity was evaluated by comparing the derived IDF attributes with respect to time windows of different length and level of stationarity. Spatial mapping of event return-period was performed for various design storms, and spatial mapping of event intensity was performed for given duration and return periods. IDF characteristics were systematically compared (historical vs RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5) using annual maximum series vs partial duration series data with the goal of providing reliable IDF analyses to support hydrologic engineering design.

  16. Dam pre-release as an important operation strategy in reducing flood impact in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidayah Ishak, Nurul; Mustafa Hashim, Ahmad

    2018-03-01

    The 2014 flood was reported to be one of the worst natural disaster has ever affected several states in the northern part of Peninsular Malaysia. Overwhelming rainfall was noted as one of the main factors causing such impact, which was claimed to be unprecedented to some extent. The state of Perak, which is blessed with four cascading dams had also experienced flood damage at a scale that was considered the worst in history. The rainfall received had caused the dam to reach danger level that necessitated additional discharge to be released. Safety of the dams was of great importance and such unavoidable additional discharge was allowed to avoid catastrophic failure of the dam structures. This paper discusses the dam pre-release as a significant dam management strategy in reducing flood impact. An important balance between required dam storage to be maintained and the risk element that can be afforded is the crucial factor in such enhanced operation strategy. While further possibility in developing a carefully engineered dam pre-release strategy can be explored for dam operation in Malaysia, this has already been introduced in some developed countries. Australia and South Africa are examples where pre-release has been practiced and proven to reduce flood risk. The concept involves controlling the dam lake level throughout the year, in reference to the rainfall data and the hydrological properties for the catchment area of the dams. Plentiful data analysis need to be done in contemplation of producing the optimal pre-release model. The amount of heavy rainfalls received is beyond human control but the distribution of the discharge from the dams can be further managed with the appropriate pre-release strategy.

  17. Applying Independent Component Analysis on Sentinel-2 Imagery to Characterize Geomorphological Responses to an Extreme Flood Event near the Non-Vegetated Río Colorado Terminus, Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaguang Li

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In some internally-draining dryland basins, ephemeral river systems terminate at the margins of playas. Extreme floods can exert significant geomorphological impacts on the lower reaches of these river systems and the playas, including causing changes to flood extent, channel-floodplain morphology, and sediment dispersal. However, the characterization of these impacts using remote sensing approaches has been challenging owing to variable vegetation and cloud cover, as well as the commonly limited spatial and temporal resolution of data. Here, we use Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI data to investigate the flood extent, flood patterns and channel-floodplain morphodynamics resulting from an extreme flood near the non-vegetated terminus of the Río Colorado, located at the margins of the world’s largest playa (Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia. Daily maximum precipitation frequency analysis based on a 42-year record of daily precipitation data (1976 through 2017 indicates that an approximately 40-year precipitation event (40.7 mm occurred on 6 January 2017, and this was associated with an extreme flood. Sentinel-2 data acquired after this extreme flood were used to separate water bodies and land, first by using modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI, and then by subsequently applying independent component analysis (ICA on the land section of the combined pre- and post-flood images to extract flooding areas. The area around the Río Colorado terminus system was classified into three categories: water bodies, wet land, and dry land. The results are in agreement with visual assessment, with an overall accuracy of 96% and Kappa of 0.9 for water-land classification and an overall accuracy of 83% and Kappa of 0.65 for dry land-wet land classification. The flood extent mapping revealed preferential overbank flow paths on the floodplain, which were closely related to geomorphological changes. Changes included the formation and enlargement of

  18. Flash floods and debris flow: how the risk could can be better managed? The case of the events in Sicily on October 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronica, Giuseppe T.; Brigandi', Giuseppina

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods are phenomena in which the important hydrologic processes are occurring on the same spatial and temporal scales as the intense precipitation. Most of the catchments of the Messina area in the North-East part of Sicily (Italy), are prone to flash flood formation. They are, in fact, small, with a steep slope, and characterised by short concentration times. Moreover, those catchments are predominantly rural in the upper mountainous part, while the areas next to the outlet are highly urbanized with areas that cover not only the floodplain but also the river bed itself as the main roads were previously part of the torrent. This situation involve an high risk of economic losses and human life in case of flash flood in these areas. In the last years the area around Messina has been interested by severe flash floods and debris flow. The events occurred on 25th October 2007 in the Mastroguglielmo torrent and 1st October 2009 on Racinazzi and Gianpilieri torrents are an example of flash floods and debris flow events that caused not only significant economic damages to property, buildings, roads and bridges but also, for this that concern the 1st October 2009 flash flood, loss of human life. The main focus of this work is, basing on the post event analysis of the 2009 flash flood event, to try to understand which could be the better preventive measures and mitigation strategies that can be provided for a better risk management in these areas too many times affected by devastating events. Flood management can be controlled by either structural or non-structural measures. Adoption of a certain measure depends critically on the hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the river system and the region. Flash flood management includes a number of phases that should be included in any management strategy like prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Forecasting based on hydrological precursors based on the soil moisture condition at the

  19. Flooding and poverty: Two interrelated social problems impacting rural development in Tsholotsho district of Matabeleland North province in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Dube

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Flooding and poverty are the two social problems that have coexisted within the rural communities of Tsholotsho district. As a result, both problems have negatively affected and disrupted the everyday pattern of lives of people living in the district. This study sought to highlight how the two problems combine to impact human societies. The objectives that the study sought to fulfil were to establish the impact of flooding on the development of rural communities, to analyse how poverty manifests itself in rural communities, to analyse the relationship that exists between flooding and poverty and to suggest ways for dealing with the two problems. A qualitative research approach, using interviews and observations, was used to gather data from the research participants. The study findings were that flooding impeded development through shifting of human populations, destruction of crops, shelter and livestock. Floods also affected human capital through causing injuries to members of the community. Poverty manifested itself in three ways – as a development barrier, a vulnerability amplifier and a non-discriminatory agent. The study further found that a strong relationship exists between flooding and poverty because of the fact that flooding causes or worsens poverty, whereas poverty increases flood vulnerability. The study concluded that the poor need government assistance to reconstruct shelter destroyed by floods. Furthermore, programs aimed at improving livelihoods of the poor are an indispensable imperative. This study informs policymakers and offers a methodological significance to development and disaster practitioners. It also adds to the body of literature on flooding and poverty.

  20. Sparsity-weighted outlier FLOODing (OFLOOD) method: Efficient rare event sampling method using sparsity of distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, Ryuhei; Nakamura, Tomotake; Shigeta, Yasuteru

    2016-03-30

    As an extension of the Outlier FLOODing (OFLOOD) method [Harada et al., J. Comput. Chem. 2015, 36, 763], the sparsity of the outliers defined by a hierarchical clustering algorithm, FlexDice, was considered to achieve an efficient conformational search as sparsity-weighted "OFLOOD." In OFLOOD, FlexDice detects areas of sparse distribution as outliers. The outliers are regarded as candidates that have high potential to promote conformational transitions and are employed as initial structures for conformational resampling by restarting molecular dynamics simulations. When detecting outliers, FlexDice defines a rank in the hierarchy for each outlier, which relates to sparsity in the distribution. In this study, we define a lower rank (first ranked), a medium rank (second ranked), and the highest rank (third ranked) outliers, respectively. For instance, the first-ranked outliers are located in a given conformational space away from the clusters (highly sparse distribution), whereas those with the third-ranked outliers are nearby the clusters (a moderately sparse distribution). To achieve the conformational search efficiently, resampling from the outliers with a given rank is performed. As demonstrations, this method was applied to several model systems: Alanine dipeptide, Met-enkephalin, Trp-cage, T4 lysozyme, and glutamine binding protein. In each demonstration, the present method successfully reproduced transitions among metastable states. In particular, the first-ranked OFLOOD highly accelerated the exploration of conformational space by expanding the edges. In contrast, the third-ranked OFLOOD reproduced local transitions among neighboring metastable states intensively. For quantitatively evaluations of sampled snapshots, free energy calculations were performed with a combination of umbrella samplings, providing rigorous landscapes of the biomolecules. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Climate change impacts on urban wildfire and flooding policy in Idaho: a comparative policy network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Numerous frameworks and models exist for understanding the dynamics of the public policy process. A policy network approach considers how and why stakeholders and interests pay attention to and engage in policy problems, such as flood control or developing resilient and fire resistant landscapes. Variables considered in this approach include what the relationships are between these stakeholders, how they influence the process and outcomes, communication patterns within and between policy networks, and how networks change as a result of new information, science, or public interest and involvement with the problem. This approach is useful in understanding the creation of natural hazards policy as new information or situations, such as projected climate change impacts, influence and disrupt the policy process and networks. Two significant natural hazard policy networks exist in the semi-arid Treasure Valley region of Southwest Idaho, which includes the capitol city of Boise and the surrounding metropolitan area. Boise is situated along the Boise River and adjacent to steep foothills; this physiographic setting makes Boise vulnerable to both wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and flooding. Both of these natural hazards have devastated the community in the past and floods and fires are projected to occur with more frequency in the future as a result of projected climate change impacts in the region. While both hazards are fairly well defined problems, there are stark differences lending themselves to comparisons across their respective networks. The WUI wildfire network is large and well developed, includes stakeholders from all levels of government, the private sector and property owner organizations, has well defined objectives, and conducts promotional and educational activities as part of its interaction with the public in order to increase awareness and garner support for its policies. The flood control policy network, however, is less defined

  2. A limited area model intercomparison on the 'Montserrat-2000' flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mariani

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as 'Montserrat-2000' event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs, several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard 'eyeball' analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

  3. On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignone, Anthony; Stockdon, H.; Willis, M.; Cannon, J.W.; Thompson, R.

    2012-01-01

    National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) are responsible for issuing coastal flood watches, warnings, advisories, and local statements to alert decision makers and the general public when rising water levels may lead to coastal impacts such as inundation, erosion, and wave battery. Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can generate the prerequisite rise in water level to set the stage for a coastal impact event. Forecasters use a variety of tools including computer model guidance and local studies to help predict the potential severity of coastal flooding. However, a key missing component has been the incorporation of the effects of waves in the prediction of total water level and the associated coastal impacts. Several recent studies have demonstrated the importance of incorporating wave action into the NWS coastal flood program. To follow up on these studies, this paper looks at the potential of applying recently developed empirical parameterizations of wave setup, swash, and runup to the NWS forecast process. Additionally, the wave parameterizations are incorporated into a storm impact scaling model that compares extreme water levels to beach elevation data to determine the mode of coastal change at predetermined “hotspots” of interest. Specifically, the storm impact model compares the approximate storm-induced still water level, which includes contributions from tides, storm surge, and wave setup, to dune crest elevation to determine inundation potential. The model also compares the combined effects of tides, storm surge, and the 2 % exceedance level for vertical wave runup (including both wave setup and swash) to dune toe and crest elevations to determine if erosion and/or ocean overwash may occur. The wave parameterizations and storm impact model are applied to two cases in 2009 that led to significant coastal impacts and unique forecast challenges in North Carolina: the extratropical “Nor'Ida” event during 11-14 November and

  4. An EPA pilot study characterizing fungal and bacterial populations at homes after flooding events at the Martin Peña Channel community-Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    The overall objective of this program is to characterize fungal and bacterial populations in the MPC residences in San Juan, Puerto Rico, following flooding events. These profiles will be generated by comparing the fungal and bacterial populations in two groups of residences: hom...

  5. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    OpenAIRE

    Jahn, Malte

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

  6. Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

    2008-01-01

    Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

  7. Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annegret H. Thieken

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1 an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2 comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3 more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4 a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.

  8. Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hally

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The e-Science environment developed in the framework of the EU-funded DRIHM project was used to demonstrate its ability to provide relevant, meaningful hydrometeorological forecasts. This was illustrated for the tragic case of 4 November 2011, when Genoa, Italy, was flooded as the result of heavy, convective precipitation that inundated the Bisagno catchment. The Meteorological Model Bridge (MMB, an innovative software component developed within the DRIHM project for the interoperability of meteorological and hydrological models, is a key component of the DRIHM e-Science environment. The MMB allowed three different rainfall-discharge models (DRiFt, RIBS and HBV to be driven by four mesoscale limited-area atmospheric models (WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH and AROME and a downscaling algorithm (RainFARM in a seamless fashion. In addition to this multi-model configuration, some of the models were run in probabilistic mode, thus giving a comprehensive account of modelling errors and a very large amount of likely hydrometeorological scenarios (> 1500. The multi-model approach proved to be necessary because, whilst various aspects of the event were successfully simulated by different models, none of the models reproduced all of these aspects correctly. It was shown that the resulting set of simulations helped identify key atmospheric processes responsible for the large rainfall accumulations over the Bisagno basin. The DRIHM e-Science environment facilitated an evaluation of the sensitivity to atmospheric and hydrological modelling errors. This showed that both had a significant impact on predicted discharges, the former being larger than the latter. Finally, the usefulness of the set of hydrometeorological simulations was assessed from a flash flood early-warning perspective.

  9. Landslides, floods and sinkholes in a karst environment: the 1-6 September 2014 Gargano event, southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinotti, Maria Elena; Pisano, Luca; Marchesini, Ivan; Rossi, Mauro; Peruccacci, Silvia; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Melillo, Massimo; Amoruso, Giuseppe; Loiacono, Pierluigi; Vennari, Carmela; Vessia, Giovanna; Trabace, Maria; Parise, Mario; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-03-01

    In karst environments, heavy rainfall is known to cause multiple geohydrological hazards, including inundations, flash floods, landslides and sinkholes. We studied a period of intense rainfall from 1 to 6 September 2014 in the Gargano Promontory, a karst area in Puglia, southern Italy. In the period, a sequence of torrential rainfall events caused severe damage and claimed two fatalities. The amount and accuracy of the geographical and temporal information varied for the different hazards. The temporal information was most accurate for the inundation caused by a major river, less accurate for flash floods caused by minor torrents and even less accurate for landslides. For sinkholes, only generic information on the period of occurrence of the failures was available. Our analysis revealed that in the promontory, rainfall-driven hazards occurred in response to extreme meteorological conditions and that the karst landscape responded to the torrential rainfall with a threshold behaviour. We exploited the rainfall and the landslide information to design the new ensemble-non-exceedance probability (E-NEP) algorithm for the quantitative evaluation of the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides and of related geohydrological hazards. The ensemble of the metrics produced by the E-NEP algorithm provided better diagnostics than the single metrics often used for landslide forecasting, including rainfall duration, cumulated rainfall and rainfall intensity. We expect that the E-NEP algorithm will be useful for landslide early warning in karst areas and in other similar environments. We acknowledge that further tests are needed to evaluate the algorithm in different meteorological, geological and physiographical settings.

  10. Thunderstorms and flooding of August 17, 2007, with a context provided by a history of other large storm and flood events in the Black Hills area of South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Daniel G.; Bunkers, Matthew J.; Carter, Janet M.; Stamm, John F.; Williamson, Joyce E.

    2010-01-01

    The Black Hills area of western South Dakota has a history of damaging flash floods that have resulted primarily from exceptionally strong rain-producing thunderstorms. The best known example is the catastrophic storm system of June 9-10, 1972, which caused severe flooding in several major drainages near Rapid City and resulted in 238 deaths. More recently, severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding near Piedmont and Hermosa on August 17, 2007. Obtaining a thorough understanding of peak-flow characteristics for low-probability floods will require a comprehensive long-term approach involving (1) documentation of scientific information for extreme events such as these; (2) long-term collection of systematic peak-flow records; and (3) regional assessments of a wide variety of peak-flow information. To that end, the U.S. Geological Survey cooperated with the South Dakota Department of Transportation and National Weather Service to produce this report, which provides documentation regarding the August 17, 2007, storm and associated flooding and provides a context through examination of other large storm and flood events in the Black Hills area. The area affected by the August 17, 2007, storms and associated flooding generally was within the area affected by the larger storm of June 9-10, 1972. The maximum observed 2007 precipitation totals of between 10.00 and 10.50 inches occurred within about 2-3 hours in a small area about 5 miles west of Hermosa. The maximum documented precipitation amount in 1972 was 15.0 inches, and precipitation totals of 10.0 inches or more were documented for 34 locations within an area of about 76 square miles. A peak flow of less than 1 cubic foot per second occurred upstream from the 2007 storm extent for streamflow-gaging station 06404000 (Battle Creek near Keystone); whereas, the 1972 peak flow of 26,200 cubic feet per second was large, relative to the drainage area of only 58.6 square miles. Farther downstream along Battle Creek, a 2007

  11. Mitigating flood exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

  12. Economic impact profiling of CBRN events: focusing on biological incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavallini, Simona; Bisogni, Fabio; Mastroianni, Marco

    2014-12-01

    Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) incidents, both caused accidentally by human error or natural/technological events and determined intentionally as criminal/malicious/terroristic acts, have consequences that could be differently characterized. In the last years many efforts to analyze the economic impact of terrorist threat have been carried out, while researches specifically concerning CBRN events have not been extensively undertaken. This paper in particular aims at proposing a methodological approach for studying macro-level economic impact profiles of biological incidents caused by weaponized and non-weaponized materials. The suggested approach investigates the economic consequences of biological incidents according to two main dimensions: type of large-scale effect and persistence of effect. Biological incident economic impacts are analyzed taking into account the persistence of effect during time as short-term impact (i.e. immediately after the incident), medium-term impact (i.e. by a month) and long-term impact (i.e. by years). The costs due to preventive countermeasure against biological threats (e.g. prevention, protection and preparedness expenses) are not taken into account. To this purpose, information on the key features of past biological incidents can be used as case studies to try to build impact profiles taking into account the proposed two main dimensions. Consequence management and effect mitigation of CBRN emergencies and disasters may benefit from an ex ante definition of the impact profiling related to this kind of incidents. The final goal of this paper is to define an approach to organize information on possible biological events according to their impact profile for supporting more effective and efficient first responders' prompt actions and policy makers' strategic decisions after the event occurrence.

  13. Abiotic variability among different aquatic systems of the central Amazon floodplain during drought and flood events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Affonso, A G; Queiroz, H L; Novo, E M L M

    2015-11-01

    This paper examines water properties from lakes, (depression lakes, sensu Junk et al., 2012), channels (scroll lakes with high connectivity, sensu Junk et al., 2012) and paleo-channels (scroll lakes with low connectivity-sensu Junk et al., 2012, locally called ressacas) located in Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve, in Central Amazon floodplain, Amazonas, Brazil. We analysed surface temperature, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, transparency, suspended inorganic and organic matter, chlorophyll-a, pheophytin, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, organic and inorganic carbon in 2009 high water phase, 2009 and 2010 low water phases. Multivariate statistical analyses of 24 aquatic systems (6 ressacas, 12 lakes and 6 channels, 142 samples) were applied to the variables in order to: 1) quantify differences among aquatic system types; 2) assess how those differences are affected in the different phases of the hydrological year. First, we analysed the entire set of variables to test for differences among phases of the hydrological year and types of aquatic systems using a PERMANOVA two-way crossed design. The results showed that the all measured limnological variables are distinct regarding both factors: types of aquatic systems and hydrological phases. In general, the magnitude and amplitude of all variables were higher in the low water phase than in the high water phase, except for water transparency in all aquatic system's types. PERMANOVA showed that the differences between aquatic system's types and hydrological phases of all variables were highly significant for both main factors (type and phase) and for the type x phase interaction. Limnological patterns of Amazon floodplain aquatic systems are highly dynamic, dependent on the surrounding environment, flood pulse, main river input and system type. These patterns show how undisturbed systems respond to natural variability in such a diverse environment, and how distinct are those aquatic systems

  14. Abiotic variability among different aquatic systems of the central Amazon floodplain during drought and flood events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Affonso

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper examines water properties from lakes, (depression lakes, sensu Junk et al., 2012, channels (scroll lakes with high connectivity, sensu Junk et al., 2012 and paleo-channels (scroll lakes with low connectivity-sensu Junk et al., 2012, locally called ressacas located in Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve, in Central Amazon floodplain, Amazonas, Brazil. We analysed surface temperature, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, transparency, suspended inorganic and organic matter, chlorophyll-a, pheophytin, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, organic and inorganic carbon in 2009 high water phase, 2009 and 2010 low water phases. Multivariate statistical analyses of 24 aquatic systems (6 ressacas, 12 lakes and 6 channels, 142 samples were applied to the variables in order to: 1 quantify differences among aquatic system types; 2 assess how those differences are affected in the different phases of the hydrological year. First, we analysed the entire set of variables to test for differences among phases of the hydrological year and types of aquatic systems using a PERMANOVA two-way crossed design. The results showed that the all measured limnological variables are distinct regarding both factors: types of aquatic systems and hydrological phases. In general, the magnitude and amplitude of all variables were higher in the low water phase than in the high water phase, except for water transparency in all aquatic system’s types. PERMANOVA showed that the differences between aquatic system’s types and hydrological phases of all variables were highly significant for both main factors (type and phase and for the type x phase interaction. Limnological patterns of Amazon floodplain aquatic systems are highly dynamic, dependent on the surrounding environment, flood pulse, main river input and system type. These patterns show how undisturbed systems respond to natural variability in such a diverse environment, and how distinct are

  15. Impacts of Mesopotamian wetland re-flooding on the lipid biomarker distributions in sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushdi, Ahmed I.; DouAbul, Ali A. Z.; Al-Maarofi, Sama S.; Simoneit, Bernd R. T.

    2018-03-01

    Shallow sediment core samples from two locales in the Mesopotamian marshlands of Iraq were analyzed to characterize the extractable organic (lipid) compounds, and their sources and distributions after hydrological restoration by re-flooding of the marshes. Dried samples were extracted with a dichloromethane/methanol mixture before analysis by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The major compounds were n-alkanes, fatty acids and alcohols, steroids, terpenoids, hopanes, steranes, unresolved complex mixture (UCM), and plasticizers. The lipid compounds in Kurmashia (Al-Hammar marshes) were generally higher in concentration than in Abu Zirig (Central marshes), and decreased with core depths for both sites. This concentration decrease with core depth is attributed to transformation, biodegradation and variable input processes. The distribution patterns of the lipids in the sediment cores indicated that the Abu Zirig area was drier than Kurmashia before the re-flooding process. Furthermore, the concentration of the compounds in the surface sediment the Abu Zirig core was as high and similar to that in Kurmashia, reflecting the re-flooding impacts on the marsh and the revival of the wetland. The major sources of these lipids were from natural terrestrial vegetation (35-66% for Abu Zirig; 40-49% for Kurmashia), microbial (plankton) residues and bacteria (27-52% for Abu Zirig; 39-43% for Kurmashia), with a minor contribution from anthropogenic sources including plastic wastes and petroleum (6-13% for Abu Zirig; 9-18% for Kurmashia).

  16. Channel morphology and its impact on flood passage, the Tianjiazhen reach of the middle Yangtze River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yafeng; Zhang, Qiang; Chen, Zhongyuan; Jiang, Tong; Wu, Jinglu

    2007-03-01

    The Tianjiazhen reach of the middle Yangtze is about 8 km long, and characterized by a narrow river width of 650 m and local water depth of > 90 m in deep inner troughs, of which about 60 m is below the mean sea level. The troughs in the channel of such a large river are associated with regional tectonics and local lithology. The channel configuration plays a critical role in modifying the height and duration of river floods and erosion of the riverbed. The formation of the troughs in the bed of the Yangtze is considered to be controlled by sets of NW-SE-oriented neotectonic fault zones, in which some segments consist of highly folded thick Triassic limestone crossed by the Yangtze River. Several limestone hills, currently located next to the river channel, serve as nodes that create large vortices in the river, thereby accelerating downcutting on the riverbed composed of limestone highly susceptible to physical corrosion and chemical dissolution. Hydrological records indicate that the nodal hills and channel configuration at Tianjiazhen do not impact on normal flow discharges but discharges > 50,000 m 3s - 1 are slowed down for 2-3 days. Catastrophic floods are held up for even longer periods. These inevitably result in elevated flood stages upstream of prolonged duration, affecting large cities such as Wuhan and a very large number of people.

  17. Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.

    2017-12-01

    Focusing on this recent extreme wet year over California, this study investigates the warming impacts on the snowpack and the flood severity over the Sierra Nevada (SN), where the majority of the precipitation occurs during the winter season and early spring. One of our goals is to quantify anthropogenic warming impacts on the snow water equivalent (SWE) including recent historical warming and prescribed future projected warming scenarios; This work also explores to what extent flooding risk has increased under those warming cases. With a good representation of the historical precipitation and snowpack over the Sierra Nevada from the historical reference run at 9km (using WRF), the results from the offline Noah-MP simulations with perturbed near-surface temperatures reveal magnificent impacts of warming to the loss of the average snowpack. The reduction of the SWE under warming mainly results from the decreased rain-to-snow conversion with a weaker effect from increased snowmelt. Compared to the natural case, the past industrial warming decreased the maximum SWE by about one-fifth averaged over the study area. Future continuing warming can result in around one-third reduction of current maximum SWE under RCP4.5 emissions scenario, and the loss can reach to two-thirds under RCP8.5 as a "business-as-usual" condition. The impact of past warming is particularly outstanding over the North SN region where precipitation dominates and over the middle elevation regions where the snow mainly distributes. In the future, the warming impact on SWE progresses to higher regions, and so to the south and east. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the projected mid-elevation snowpack almost disappears by April 1st with even high-elevation snow reduced by about half. Along with the loss of the snowpack, as the temperature warms, floods can also intensify with increased early season runoff especially under heavy-rainy days caused by the weakened rain-to-snow processes and

  18. The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iceland, Charles

    2015-04-01

    As population growth and economic growth take place, and as climate change accelerates, many regions across the globe are finding themselves increasingly vulnerable to flooding. A recent OECD study of the exposure of the world's large port cities to coastal flooding found that 40 million people were exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event in 2005, and the total value of exposed assets was about US 3,000 billion, or 5% of global GDP. By the 2070s, those numbers were estimated to increase to 150 million people and US 35,000 billion, or roughly 9% of projected global GDP. Impoverished people in developing countries are particularly at risk because they often live in flood-prone areas and lack the resources to respond. WRI and its Dutch partners - Deltares, IVM-VU University Amsterdam, Utrecht University, and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - are in the initial stages of developing a robust set of river flood and coastal storm surge risk measures that show the extent of flooding under a variety of scenarios (both current and future), together with the projected human and economic impacts of these flood scenarios. These flood risk data and information will be accessible via an online, easy-to-use Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer. We will also investigate the viability, benefits, and costs of a wide array of flood risk reduction measures that could be implemented in a variety of geographic and socio-economic settings. Together, the activities we propose have the potential for saving hundreds of thousands of lives and strengthening the resiliency and security of many millions more, especially those who are most vulnerable. Mr. Iceland will present Version 1.0 of the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer and provide a preview of additional elements of the Analyzer to be released in the coming years.

  19. The Impact of Climate Change on New York City's Coastal Flood Hazard: Increasing Flood Heights from the Pre-Industrial to 2300 CE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, A. J.; Mann, M. E.; Emanuel, K.; Kopp, R. E.; Lin, N.; Alley, R. B.; Horton, B.; Deconto, R. M.; Donnelly, J. P.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the pre-industrial through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP 8.5 runs of three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections include the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet to assess future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared to pre-industrial or modern flood heights. We find that the 1-in-500-year flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 3.9 - 4.8 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100, and ranges from 2.8 - 13.0 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25 m flood has decreased from 500 years prior to 1800 to 25 years during 1970-2005, and further decreases to 5 years by 2030 - 2045 in 95% of our simulations.

  20. [Climate changes, floods, and health consequences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelozzi, Paola; de' Donato, Francesca

    2014-02-01

    In the European Region, floods are the most common natural disaster, causing extensive damage and disruption. In Italy, it has been estimated that over 68% of municipalities are at high hydrogeological risk and with the recent intense rainfall events local populations have been facing severe disruptions. The health consequences of floods are wide ranging and are dependent upon the vulnerability of the environment and the local population. Health effects can be a direct or indirect consequence of flooding. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, heart attacks, injuries and hypothermia. The indirect effects include, injuries and infections, water-borne infectious disease, mental health problems, respiratory disease and allergies in both the medium and long term after a flood. Future efforts should be addressed to integrate health preparedness and prevention measures into emergency flood plans and hydrological warning systems.

  1. Identifying evidence of climate change impact on extreme events in permeable chalk catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, A. P.; Nubert, S.

    2009-12-01

    The permeable chalk catchments of southern England are vital for the economy and well being of the UK. Not only important as a water resource, their freely draining soils support intensive agricultural production, and the rolling downs and chalk streams provide important habitants for many protected plant and animal species. Consequently, there are concerns about the potential impact of climate change on such catchments, particularly in relation to groundwater recharge. Of major concern are possible changes in extreme events, such as groundwater floods and droughts, as any increase in the frequency and/or severity of these has important consequences for water resources, ecological systems and local infrastructure. Studies of climate change impact on extreme events for such catchments have indicated that, under medium and high emissions scenarios, droughts are likely to become more severe whilst floods less so. However, given the uncertainties in such predictions and the inherent variability in historic data, producing definitive evidence of changes in flood/drought frequency/severity poses a significant challenge. Thus, there is a need for specific extreme event statistics that can be used as indicators of actual climate change in streamflow and groundwater level observations. Identifying such indicators that are sufficiently robust requires catchments with long historic time series data. One such catchment is the River Lavant, an intermittent chalk stream in West Sussex, UK. Located within this catchment is Chilgrove House, the site of the UK’s longest groundwater monitoring well (with a continuous record of water level observations of varying frequency dating back to 1836). Using a variety of meteorological datasets, the behaviour of the catchment has been modelled, from 1855 to present, using a 'leaky aquifer' conceptual model. Model calibration was based on observed daily streamflow, at a gauging station just outside the town of Chichester, from 1970. Long

  2. Unexpected flood loss correlations across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Naomi; Boyd, Jessica

    2017-04-01

    Floods don't observe country borders, as highlighted by major events across Europe that resulted in heavy economic and insured losses in 1999, 2002, 2009 and 2013. Flood loss correlations between some countries occur along multi-country river systems or between neighbouring nations affected by the same weather systems. However, correlations are not so obvious and whilst flooding in multiple locations across Europe may appear independent, for a re/insurer providing cover across the continent, these unexpected correlations can lead to high loss accumulations. A consistent, continental-scale method that allows quantification and comparison of losses, and identifies correlations in loss between European countries is therefore essential. A probabilistic model for European river flooding was developed that allows estimation of potential losses to pan-European property portfolios. By combining flood hazard and exposure information in a catastrophe modelling platform, we can consider correlations between river basins across Europe rather than being restricted to country boundaries. A key feature of the model is its statistical event set based on extreme value theory. Using historical river flow data, the event set captures spatial and temporal patterns of flooding across Europe and simulates thousands of events representing a full range of possible scenarios. Some known correlations were identified, such as between neighbouring Belgium and Luxembourg where 28% of events that affect either country produce a loss in both. However, our model identified some unexpected correlations including between Austria and Poland, and Poland and France, which are geographically distant. These correlations in flood loss may be missed by traditional methods and are key for re/insurers with risks in multiple countries. The model also identified that 46% of European river flood events affect more than one country. For more extreme events with a return period higher than 200 years, all events

  3. Simulating Catchment Scale Afforestation for Mitigating Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, M. S.; Bathurst, J. C.; Quinn, P. F.; Birkinshaw, S.

    2016-12-01

    After the 2013-14, and the more recent 2015-16, winter floods in the UK there were calls to 'forest the uplands' as a solution to reducing flood risk across the nation. However, the role of forests as a natural flood management practice remains highly controversial, due to a distinct lack of robust evidence into its effectiveness in reducing flood risk during extreme events. This project aims to improve the understanding of the impacts of upland afforestation on flood risk at the sub-catchment and full catchment scales. This will be achieved through an integrated fieldwork and modelling approach, with the use of a series of process based hydrological models to scale up and examine the effects forestry can have on flooding. Furthermore, there is a need to analyse the extent to which land management practices, catchment system engineering and the installation of runoff attenuation features (RAFs), such as engineered log jams, in headwater catchments can attenuate flood-wave movement, and potentially reduce downstream flood risk. Additionally, the proportion of a catchment or riparian reach that would need to be forested in order to achieve a significant impact on reducing downstream flooding will be defined. The consequential impacts of a corresponding reduction in agriculturally productive farmland and the potential decline of water resource availability will also be considered in order to safeguard the UK's food security and satisfy the global demand on water resources.

  4. Signatures of natural catastrophic events and anthropogenic impact in an estuarine environment, New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chague-Goff, C.; Nichol, S.L.; Jenkinson, A.V.; Heijnis, H.

    2000-01-01

    The sedimentary record of known natural catastrophic events and human activity in the Ahuriri Estuary, Hawke's Bay, is assessed using sedimentological, chemical and geochronological techniques. Evidence for the 1931 Hawke's Bay earthquake, which resulted in an uplift of one to two metres in the Napier area, is given by a change from silt- to sand-dominated sediment in the lower estuary, which is consistent with a shift toward higher energy depositional conditions following uplift. Post-European settlement impact is mainly restricted to the lower estuary, where increased concentrations of Zn, Cr, Pb and Cu are attributed to industrial discharges. Chemical data (Cl and S) suggest a change in the depositional environment in the upper estuary due to increased freshwater influx and/or decrease in seawater influence. Dating by 210 Pb suggests that this occurred around the middle of the 19th century, and might be attributed to river flooding at that time. 50 refs., 9 figs

  5. Flooding and Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

  6. Elk River Watershed - Flood Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.

    2014-12-01

    Flooding has the potential to cause significant impacts to economic activities as well as to disrupt or displace populations. Changing climate regimes such as extreme precipitation events increase flood vulnerability and put additional stresses on infrastructure. Potential flooding from just under 100 (2009 NPRI Reviewed Facility Data Release, Environment Canada) toxic tailings ponds located in Canada increase risk to human safety and the environment. One such geotechnical failure spilt billions of litres of toxic tailings into the Fraser River watershed, British Columbia, when a tailings pond dam breach occurred in August 2014. Damaged and washed out roadways cut access to essential services as seen by the extensive floods that occurred in Saskatchewan and Manitoba in July 2014, and in Southern Alberta in 2013. Recovery efforts from events such as these can be lengthy, and have substantial social and economic impacts both in loss of revenue and cost of repair. The objective of this study is to investigate existing conditions in the Elk River watershed and model potential future hydrological changes that can increase flood risk hazards. By analyzing existing hydrology, meteorology, land cover, land use, economic, and settlement patterns a baseline is established for existing conditions in the Elk River watershed. Coupling the Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) high-resolution spatial hydrometeorological model with flood hazard analysis methodology, high-resolution flood vulnerability base line maps are created using historical climate conditions. Further work in 2015 will examine possible impacts for a range of climate change and land use change scenarios to define changes to future flood risk and vulnerability.

  7. The use of distributed hydrological models for the Gard 2002 flash flood event: Analysis of associated hydrological processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braud, Isabelle; Roux, Hélène; Anquetin, Sandrine; Maubourguet, Marie-Madeleine; Manus, Claire; Viallet, Pierre; Dartus, Denis

    2010-11-01

    SummaryThis paper presents a detailed analysis of the September 8-9, 2002 flash flood event in the Gard region (southern France) using two distributed hydrological models: CVN built within the LIQUID® hydrological platform and MARINE. The models differ in terms of spatial discretization, infiltration and water redistribution representation, and river flow transfer. MARINE can also account for subsurface lateral flow. Both models are set up using the same available information, namely a DEM and a pedology map. They are forced with high resolution radar rainfall data over a set of 18 sub-catchments ranging from 2.5 to 99 km2 and are run without calibration. To begin with, models simulations are assessed against post field estimates of the time of peak and the maximum peak discharge showing a fair agreement for both models. The results are then discussed in terms of flow dynamics, runoff coefficients and soil saturation dynamics. The contribution of the subsurface lateral flow is also quantified using the MARINE model. This analysis highlights that rainfall remains the first controlling factor of flash flood dynamics. High rainfall peak intensities are very influential of the maximum peak discharge for both models, but especially for the CVN model which has a simplified overland flow transfer. The river bed roughness also influences the peak intensity and time. Soil spatial representation is shown to have a significant role on runoff coefficients and on the spatial variability of saturation dynamics. Simulated soil saturation is found to be strongly related with soil depth and initial storage deficit maps, due to a full saturation of most of the area at the end of the event. When activated, the signature of subsurface lateral flow is also visible in the spatial patterns of soil saturation with higher values concentrating along the river network. However, the data currently available do not allow the assessment of both patterns. The paper concludes with a set of

  8. Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  9. Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

  10. Impact of secondary cardiovascular events on health status

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Stel, Henk F.; Busschbach, Jan J. V.; Hunink, M. G. Myriam; Buskens, Erik

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: Estimates regarding the impact of secondary cardiovascular events on health status in patients treated for cardiovascular disease are scarce and of limited accuracy. Methods: We obtained individual patient data on health status (EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire) and secondary

  11. A GIS-Based Model for the analysis of an urban flash flood and its hydro-geomorphic response. The Valencia event of 1957

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portugués-Mollá, I.; Bonache-Felici, X.; Mateu-Bellés, J. F.; Marco-Segura, J. B.

    2016-10-01

    Flash floods are recurrent events around the Mediterranean region. Extreme episodes activate hydro-geomorphic high-intensity processes with low frequency. In urban environments, the complexity becomes higher due to the existence of very quick-response runoff. However, immediate recovery works remove the urban marks. After a short time both the significance and magnitude of the hydro-geomorphic event become completely unrecognizable. Nevertheless, these episodes generate extensive documentation which is testimony of the processes in almost real time. It is necessary to exploit this source typology in order to draw flood sketches when events far in time may lack a sufficiently rich database. This is particularly the case for the Valencia flash flood (October 1957), located in the lower Turia River basin (Eastern Spain). It left numerous pieces of hydro-geomorphic evidence, but its tracks were covered a short while after the flood. In any case, it remains part of a non-systematic legacy that has not yet been exploited, consisting of immediate aerial and oblique high resolution photography, pictures at street level, water marks and administrative records. Paradoxically, despite being considered a milestone in metropolitan territorial planning (the river was definitely diverted), an accurate reconstruction of the hydraulic behaviour was required from an integrated point of view. To this aim, the development of a GIS-Based Model enabled the utilisation of the above-mentioned materials. This non-conventional information was treated jointly from a new perspective. It provided database support through a vast amount of organised, structured and georeferenced information about the 1957 event. In a second stage, the GBM made it possible to characterise the Turia urban reach and interpret both the hydro-geomorphic (trenches along barrier beaches, erosion, deposition, etc.) and hydraulic (urban streams along the streets, flow directions, flood extent, levees breaks, overflows

  12. Chart links solar, geophysical events with impacts on space technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, George R.

    While developing a Space Weather Training Program for Air Force Space Command and the 50th Weather Squadron, both based in Colorado, ARINC Incorporated produced a flowchart that correlates solar and geophysical events with their impacts on Air Force systems.Personnel from both organizations collaborated in the development of the flowchart and provided many comments and suggestions. The model became the centerpiece of the Space Environment Impacts Reference Pamphlet, as well as the formal Space Weather Training Program. Although it is not a numerical or computer model, the flowchart became known as the “Space Environmental Impacts Model.”

  13. NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE 2009 IMPACT EVENT ON JUPITER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pond, Jarrad W. T.; Palotai, Csaba; Gabriel, Travis; Harrington, Joseph; Rebeli, Noemi [Planetary Sciences Group, Department of Physics, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816-2385 (United States); Korycansky, Donald G., E-mail: jarradpond@gmail.com [Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States)

    2012-02-01

    We have investigated the 2009 July impact event on Jupiter using the ZEUS-MP 2 three-dimensional hydrodynamics code. We studied the impact itself and the following plume development. Eight impactors were considered: 0.5 km and 1 km porous ({rho} = 1.760 g cm{sup -3}) and non-porous ({rho} = 2.700 g cm{sup -3}) basalt impactors, and 0.5 km and 1 km porous ({rho} = 0.600 g cm{sup -3}) and non-porous ({rho} = 0.917 g cm{sup -3}) ice impactors. The simulations consisted of these bolides colliding with Jupiter at an incident angle of {theta} = 69 Degree-Sign from the vertical and with an impact velocity of v = 61.4 km s{sup -1}. Our simulations show the development of relatively larger, faster plumes created after impacts involving 1 km diameter bodies. Comparing simulations of the 2009 event with simulations of the Shoemaker-Levy 9 (SL9) events reveals a difference in plume development, with the higher incident angle of the 2009 impact leading to a shallower terminal depth and a smaller and slower plume. We also studied the amount of dynamical chaos present in the simulations conducted at the 2009 incident angle. Compared to the chaos of the SL9 simulations, where {theta} Almost-Equal-To 45 Degree-Sign , we find no significant difference in chaos at the higher 2009 incident angle.

  14. An impact of deforestation by extreme weather events on Sphagnum peatland ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slowinski, M. M.; Łuców, D.; Kołaczek, P.; Tjallingii, R.; Lane, C. S.; Slowinska, S.; Tyszkowski, S.; Łokas, E.; Theuerkauf, M.; Brauer, A.; Lamentowicz, M.

    2017-12-01

    An increase in extreme weather phenomena has been observed over the last decades as a result of global climate warming. Terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by different types of disturbances such as e.g. deforestation, land-use, fragmentation, fire, floods or storms. Disturbance triggers may be natural or anthropogenic, but usually we observe negative feedback loops and interconnected causal factors. Here we investigate the effects of a tornado event on the peatland ecosystem of the Tuchola Pinewoods, Northern Poland. Deforestation by tornado events can cause severe perturbations of the hydrology and erosion that, in turn, affects adjacent lakes and peatlands. Martwe peatland provide an exceptional opportunity to study the impact of such extreme events, as it was struck by a tornado in 2012. Our research is focused on lake-peatland ecosystems that were directly affected by this tornado, and we consider the general transformation of the vegetation (mainly forests) over the last 150 years. Extensive clearing of the forest occurred in the nineteenth century due to human activity, and we compare this with the impact of the 2012 tornado. Accurate reconstructions will rely on a broad range of palaeoecological techniques such as pollen, macro-remains and testate amoebae, but also on geochemistry, i.e. μXRF scanning. The chronology of the records is based on 210Pb and radiocarbon dating and will incorporate correlations using (crypto)tephra markers of the Eyjafjöll (2010) and Askja (1875) eruptions. We expect to observe that disturbance (tornado-induced deforestation) affects the short-term changes in peatland productivity and biodiversity, through a cascading "top-down" effect. This research addresses the emerging issue of the impact of extreme phenomena and more general climate changes on peatland ecosystems, which will potentially help to inform adaptations to the environmental consequences of extreme events in the future. This project is funded by the Polish

  15. Planning for post disaster recovery: Lesson learnt from flood events in Kelantan Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rani, Wan Nurul Mardiah Wan Mohd; Nifa, Faizatul Akmar Abdul; Ismail, Mohd Noorizhar; Khalid, Khairin Norhashidah

    2017-10-01

    As the frequency of disaster occurrence increases, the world cities today are getting more difficult in terms of the management of the event. One of the most discussed issues today is the management of the post-disaster recovery that involves several stages such as the planning, management of multiple stakeholders, restoration, reconstruction and delivery. It is important to note that input from related stakeholders is necessary to make the right decision during this most critical period. In the process of building back after a disaster, it is important to ensure the newly constructed infrastructures are built to be more resilient and able to withstand a certain level of disaster recurrence. Elements of disaster risk reduction should be incorporated in the planning, redesign, construction and the operation of the built environment. In Malaysia, the disaster management has been the responsibility of the Disaster Management and Relief Committee that consists of agencies at the central, state and local levels. This is to ensure that all aspects are being considered and to be more effective in managing the situation.

  16. Pluvial, urban flood mechanisms and characteristics - Assessment based on insurance claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sörensen, Johanna; Mobini, Shifteh

    2017-12-01

    Pluvial flooding is a problem in many cities and for city planning purpose the mechanisms behind pluvial flooding are of interest. Previous studies seldom use insurance claim data to analyse city scale characteristics that lead to flooding. In the present study, two long time series (∼20 years) of flood claims from property owners have been collected and analysed in detail to investigate the mechanisms and characteristics leading to urban flooding. The flood claim data come from the municipal water utility company and property owners with insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls and flooding from the drainage system. These data are used as a proxy for flood severity for several events in the Swedish city of Malmö. It is discussed which rainfall characteristics give most flooding and why some rainfall events do not lead to severe flooding, how city scale topography and sewerage system type influence spatial distribution of flood claims, and which impact high sea level has on flooding in Malmö. Three severe flood events are described in detail and compared with a number of smaller flood events. It was found that the main mechanisms and characteristics of flood extent and its spatial distribution in Malmö are intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall, distance to the main sewer system as well as overland flow paths, and type of drainage system, while high sea level has little impact on the flood extent. Finally, measures that could be taken to lower the flood risk in Malmö, and other cities with similar characteristics, are discussed.

  17. The impact of flooding on people living with HIV: a case study from the Ohangwena Region, Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Anthonj

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Floods are a disaster situation for all affected populations and especially for vulnerable groups within communities such as children, orphans, women, and people with chronic diseases such as HIV and AIDS. They need functioning health care, sanitation and hygiene, safe water, and healthy food supply, and are critically dependent on their social care and support networks. A study carried out in the Ohangwena region, Namibia, where HIV prevalence is high and extensive flooding frequently occurs, aims to provide a deeper understanding of the impact that flooding has on people living with HIV (PLWHIV as well as on HIV service providers in the region. Design: The qualitative research applying grounded theory included semi-structured interviews with PLWHIV, focus group discussions with HIV service providers, and a national feedback meeting. The findings were interpreted using the sustainable livelihoods framework, the natural hazard research approach, and health behaviour theories. Results: The study reveals that flooding poses major problems to PLWHIV in terms of their everyday lives, affecting livelih