Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models

Science.gov (United States)

Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Eric J. Gustafson

2009-01-01

We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by...

Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.

2017-11-01

Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.

2017-01-01

Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

Wildland Fire Behaviour Case Studies and Fuel Models for Landscape-Scale Fire Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul-Antoine Santoni

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This work presents the extension of a physical model for the spreading of surface fire at landscape scale. In previous work, the model was validated at laboratory scale for fire spreading across litters. The model was then modified to consider the structure of actual vegetation and was included in the wildland fire calculation system Forefire that allows converting the two-dimensional model of fire spread to three dimensions, taking into account spatial information. Two wildland fire behavior case studies were elaborated and used as a basis to test the simulator. Both fires were reconstructed, paying attention to the vegetation mapping, fire history, and meteorological data. The local calibration of the simulator required the development of appropriate fuel models for shrubland vegetation (maquis for use with the model of fire spread. This study showed the capabilities of the simulator during the typical drought season characterizing the Mediterranean climate when most wildfires occur.

An Accurate Fire-Spread Algorithm in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Using the Level-Set Method

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz-Esparza, Domingo; Kosović, Branko; Jiménez, Pedro A.; Coen, Janice L.

2018-04-01

The level-set method is typically used to track and propagate the fire perimeter in wildland fire models. Herein, a high-order level-set method using fifth-order WENO scheme for the discretization of spatial derivatives and third-order explicit Runge-Kutta temporal integration is implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting model wildland fire physics package, WRF-Fire. The algorithm includes solution of an additional partial differential equation for level-set reinitialization. The accuracy of the fire-front shape and rate of spread in uncoupled simulations is systematically analyzed. It is demonstrated that the common implementation used by level-set-based wildfire models yields to rate-of-spread errors in the range 10-35% for typical grid sizes (Δ = 12.5-100 m) and considerably underestimates fire area. Moreover, the amplitude of fire-front gradients in the presence of explicitly resolved turbulence features is systematically underestimated. In contrast, the new WRF-Fire algorithm results in rate-of-spread errors that are lower than 1% and that become nearly grid independent. Also, the underestimation of fire area at the sharp transition between the fire front and the lateral flanks is found to be reduced by a factor of ≈7. A hybrid-order level-set method with locally reduced artificial viscosity is proposed, which substantially alleviates the computational cost associated with high-order discretizations while preserving accuracy. Simulations of the Last Chance wildfire demonstrate additional benefits of high-order accurate level-set algorithms when dealing with complex fuel heterogeneities, enabling propagation across narrow fuel gaps and more accurate fire backing over the lee side of no fuel clusters.

Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire spread for the bistability of savanna and forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Schertzer, E; Staver, A C; Levin, S A

2015-01-01

The role of fire in expanding the global distribution of savanna is well recognized. Empirical observations and modeling suggest that fire spread has a threshold response to fuel-layer continuity, which sets up a positive feedback that maintains savanna-forest bistability. However, modeling has so far failed to examine fire spread as a spatial process that interacts with vegetation. Here, we use simple, well-supported assumptions about fire spread as an infection process and its effects on trees to ask whether spatial dynamics qualitatively change the potential for savanna-forest bistability. We show that the spatial effects of fire spread are the fundamental reason that bistability is possible: because fire spread is an infection process, it exhibits a threshold response to fuel continuity followed by a rapid increase in fire size. Other ecological processes affecting fire spread may also contribute including temporal variability in demography or fire spread. Finally, including the potential for spatial aggregation increases the potential both for savanna-forest bistability and for savanna and forest to coexist in a landscape mosaic.

Forest-fire models

Science.gov (United States)

Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

2013-01-01

For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

Field validation of a free-agent cellular automata model of fire spread with fire–atmosphere coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Gary Achtemeier

2012-01-01

A cellular automata fire model represents ‘elements’ of fire by autonomous agents. A few simple algebraic expressions substituted for complex physical and meteorological processes and solved iteratively yield simulations for ‘super-diffusive’ fire spread and coupled surface-layer (2-m) fire–atmosphere processes. Pressure anomalies, which are integrals of the thermal...

Ignition and spread of electrical wire fires

OpenAIRE

Huang, Xinyan

2012-01-01

Ignition of electrical wires by external heating is investigated in order to gain a better understanding of the initiation of electrical-wire fires. An ignition-to- spread model is developed to systematically explain ignition and the following transition to spread. The model predicts that for a higher-conductance wire it is more difficult to achieve ignition and the weak flame may extinguish during the transition phase because of a large conductive heat loss along the wire core. Wires with tw...

Spread and burning behavior of continuous spill fires

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Jomaas, Grunde

2017-01-01

Spill fire experiments with continuous discharge on a fireproof glass sheet were conducted to improve the understanding of spill fire spread and burning. Ethanol was used as the fuel and the discharge rate was varied from 2.8. mL/s to 7.6. mL/s. Three ignition conditions were used...... in the experiments; no ignition, instantaneous ignition and delayed ignition. The spread rate, regression rate, penetrated thermal radiation and the temperature of the bottom glass were analyzed. The experiments clearly show the entire spread process for spill fires. Further, the regression rate of spill fires...... at the quasi-steady burning was lower than that of pool fires and the ratio of the spill fires' regression rate to the pool fires' regression rate was found to be approximately 0.89. With respect to the radiative penetration and the heat conduction between the fuel layer and the glass, a regression rate...

Model of multiroom fire spread

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Takeyoshi.

1983-01-01

This paper presents a refined version of a mathematical model for predicting the hot gas flow induced by fires in multiroom structures. Two layer zone modeling approach is used in the mathematical formulation of the model. Some of the results of sample calculations of the model are also given for a couple of model structures

Numerical simulation of the fire-spread under a nuclear burst

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Suochun; Lei Guangyao; Wang Yiren; Huang Weizhang

1992-01-01

In the paper, the authors are concerned only with computer simulation of the fires of buildings ignited on urban areas produced by a nuclear burst. Some qualitative results for the simplest model by using the parameters of fire-spread from Japanese Hiroshima are obtained by the numerical test

Analysis of Architectural Building Design Influences on Fire Spread in Densely Urban Settlement using Cellular Automata

Science.gov (United States)

Tambunan, L.; Salamah, H.; Asriana, N.

2017-03-01

This study aims to determine the influence of architectural design on the risk of fire spread in densely urban settlement area. Cellular Automata (CA) is used to analyse the fire spread pattern, speed, and the extent of damage. Four cells represent buildings, streets, and fields characteristic in the simulated area, as well as their flammability level and fire spread capabilities. Two fire scenarios are used to model the spread of fire: (1) fire origin in a building with concrete and wood material majority, and (2) fire origin in building with wood material majority. Building shape, building distance, road width, and total area of wall openings are considered constant, while wind is ignored. The result shows that fire spread faster in the building area with wood majority than with concrete majority. Significant amount of combustible building material, absence of distance between buildings, narrow streets and limited fields are factors which influence fire spread speed and pattern as well as extent of damage when fire occurs in the densely urban settlement area.

Quantitative risk assessment of continuous liquid spill fires based on spread and burning behaviours

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Li, Yuntao

2017-01-01

Spill fires usually occur during the storage and transportation of hazardous materials, posing a threat to the people and environment in their immediate proximity. In this paper, a classical Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) method is used to assess the risk of spill fires. In this method......, the maximum spread area and the steady burning area are introduced as parameters to clearly assess the range of influence of the spill fire. In the calculations, a modified spread model that takes into consideration the burning rate variation is established to calculate the maximum spread area. Furthermore......, large-scale experiments of spill fires on water and a glass sheet were conducted to verify the accuracy and application of the model. The results show that the procedure we developed can be used to quantitatively calculate the risk associated with a continuous spill fire....

A numerical solution of the problem of crown forest fire initiation and spread

Science.gov (United States)

Marzaeva, S. I.; Galtseva, O. V.

2018-05-01

Mathematical model of forest fire was based on an analysis of known experimental data and using concept and methods from reactive media mechanics. The study takes in to account the mutual interaction of the forest fires and three-dimensional atmosphere flows. The research is done by means of mathematical modeling of physical processes. It is based on numerical solution of Reynolds equations for chemical components and equations of energy conservation for gaseous and condensed phases. It is assumed that the forest during a forest fire can be modeled as a two-temperature multiphase non-deformable porous reactive medium. A discrete analog for the system of equations was obtained by means of the control volume method. The developed model of forest fire initiation and spreading would make it possible to obtain a detailed picture of the variation in the velocity, temperature and chemical species concentration fields with time. Mathematical model and the result of the calculation give an opportunity to evaluate critical conditions of the forest fire initiation and spread which allows applying the given model for of means for preventing fires.

Simulating wildfire spread behavior between two NASA Active Fire data timeframes

Science.gov (United States)

Adhikari, B.; Hodza, P.; Xu, C.; Minckley, T. A.

2017-12-01

Although NASA's Active Fire dataset is considered valuable in mapping the spatial distribution and extent of wildfires across the world, the data is only available at approximately 12-hour time intervals, creating uncertainties and risks associated with fire spread and behavior between the two Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Satellite (VIIRS) data collection timeframes. Our study seeks to close the information gap for the United States by using the latest Active Fire data collected for instance around 0130 hours as an ignition source and critical inputs to a wildfire model by uniquely incorporating forecasted and real-time weather conditions for predicting fire perimeter at the next 12 hour reporting time (i.e. around 1330 hours). The model ingests highly dynamic variables such as fuel moisture, temperature, relative humidity, wind among others, and prompts a Monte Carlo simulation exercise that uses a varying range of possible values for evaluating all possible wildfire behaviors. The Monte Carlo simulation implemented in this model provides a measure of the relative wildfire risk levels at various locations based on the number of times those sites are intersected by simulated fire perimeters. Model calibration is achieved using data at next reporting time (i.e. after 12 hours) to enhance the predictive quality at further time steps. While initial results indicate that the calibrated model can predict the overall geometry and direction of wildland fire spread, the model seems to over-predict the sizes of most fire perimeters possibly due to unaccounted fire suppression activities. Nonetheless, the results of this study show great promise in aiding wildland fire tracking, fighting and risk management.

Experimental study of fire barriers preventing vertical fire spread in ETISs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Huang

2013-11-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the external thermal insulation system (ETIS has been applied increasingly in a large amount of buildings for energy conservation purpose. However, the increase use of combustible insulation materials in the ETIS has raised serious fire safety problems. Fires involving this type of ETIS have caused severe damage and loss. In order to improve its fire safety, fire barriers were suggested to be installed. This paper introduces fire experiments that have been done to study the effects of fire barriers on preventing vertical fire spread along the ETIS. The experiments were performed according to BS 8414-1:2002 “Fire performance of external cladding systems – Part 1: Test method for non-loadbearing external cladding systems applied to the face of the building”. The test facility consists of a 9 m high wall. The fire sources were wood cribs with a fire size of 3 ± 0.5 MW. The insulation materials were expanded polystyrene foam (EPS. The fire barrier was a horizontal strip of rockwool with a width of 300 mm. Thermocouples were used to measure temperatures outside and inside the ETIS. A series of experiments with different fire scenarios were done: no fire barrier, two fire barriers and three fire barriers at different heights. Test results were compared. The results show that the ETIS using EPS without fire barriers almost burned out, while the ETIS with fire barriers performed well in preventing fire spread. The temperatures above the fire barrier were much lower than those below the fire barrier, and most of the insulation materials above the top fire barrier stayed in place.

Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

Science.gov (United States)

Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

2004-01-01

Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

Modeling urban fire growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterman, T.E.; Takata, A.N.

1983-01-01

The IITRI Urban Fire Spread Model as well as others of similar vintage were constrained by computer size and running costs such that many approximations/generalizations were introduced to reduce program complexity and data storage requirements. Simplifications were introduced both in input data and in fire growth and spread calculations. Modern computational capabilities offer the means to introduce greater detail and to examine its practical significance on urban fire predictions. Selected portions of the model are described as presently configured, and potential modifications are discussed. A single tract model is hypothesized which permits the importance of various model details to be assessed, and, other model applications are identified

Numerical simulations of fire spread in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menage, D; Chetehouna, K; Mell, W

2012-01-01

The main aim of this paper is to extend the cases of WFDS model validation by comparing its predictions to literature data on a ground fire spreading in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed. This comparison is based on the experimental results of Mendes-Lopes and co-workers. This study is performed using the same domain as in the experiments (3.0m×1.2m×0.9m) with a mesh of 49,280 cells. We investigate the influence of wind (varied between 0 and 2 m/s) and moisture content (10 and 18%) on the rate of spread. The WFDS rate of spread is determined using a cross-correlation function of ground temperature profiles. The simulated rate of spread, as well as temperature, compared favourably to experimental values and show the WFDS model capacity to predict ground fires in Pinus Pinaster fuel beds.

Numerical simulations of fire spread in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed

Science.gov (United States)

Menage, D.; Chetehouna, K.; Mell, W.

2012-11-01

The main aim of this paper is to extend the cases of WFDS model validation by comparing its predictions to literature data on a ground fire spreading in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed. This comparison is based on the experimental results of Mendes-Lopes and co-workers. This study is performed using the same domain as in the experiments (3.0m×1.2m×0.9m) with a mesh of 49,280 cells. We investigate the influence of wind (varied between 0 and 2 m/s) and moisture content (10 and 18%) on the rate of spread. The WFDS rate of spread is determined using a cross-correlation function of ground temperature profiles. The simulated rate of spread, as well as temperature, compared favourably to experimental values and show the WFDS model capacity to predict ground fires in Pinus Pinaster fuel beds.

DEVELOPMENT OF USER-FRIENDLY SIMULATION SYSTEM OF EARTHQUAKE INDUCED URBAN SPREADING FIRE

Science.gov (United States)

Tsujihara, Osamu; Gawa, Hidemi; Hayashi, Hirofumi

In the simulation of earthquake induced urban spreading fire, the produce of the analytical model of the target area is required as well as the analysis of spreading fire and the presentati on of the results. In order to promote the use of the simulation, it is important that the simulation system is non-intrusive and the analysis results can be demonstrated by the realistic presentation. In this study, the simulation system is developed based on the Petri-net algorithm, in which the easy operation can be realized in the modeling of the target area of the simulation through the presentation of analytical results by realistic 3-D animation.

Fire risk analysis, fire simulation, fire spreading and impact of smoke and heat on instrumentation electronics - State-of-the-Art Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roewekamp, M.; Bertrand, R.; Bonneval, F.; Hamblen, D.; Siu, N.; Aulamo, H.; Martila, J.; Sandberg, J.; Virolainen, R.

2000-01-01

Numerous fire PSAs (probabilistic safety assessments) have shown that fire can be a major contributor to nuclear power plant risk. However, there are considerable uncertainties in the results of these assessments, due to significant gaps in current abilities to perform realistic assessments. These gaps involve multiple aspects of fire PSA, including the estimation of the probability of important fire scenarios, the modeling of fire growth and suppression, the prediction of fire-induced damage to equipment (including the effects of smoke), and the treatment of plant and operator responses to the fire. In response to recommendations of /VIR 93/, CSNI/PWG5 established a Task Group to review the present status and maturity of current methods used in fire risk assessments for operating nuclear power plants. The Task Group issued a questionnaire in May 1997 to all nuclear power generating OECD countries. The prime focus of the questionnaire (see Appendix A) was on a number of important issues in fire PSA: Fire PSA methodology and applications; Fire simulation codes; Ignition and damageability data; Modeling of fire spread on cables or other equipment; Modeling of smoke production and spread; Impact of smoke and heat on instrumentation, electronics, or other electrical equipment; Impact of actual cable fires on safety systems. The questionnaire requested specific information on these topics (e.g., computer codes used in fire PSAs, the physical parameters used to model ignition). Responses to the questionnaire were provided by Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the USA. This report summarizes the questionnaire responses and thereby: a) provides a perspective on the current fire PSA state of the art (SOAR) with respect to the issues listed above, and b) provides numerous references for more detailed information regarding these issues. The main responsibility for writing different chapters of this report was divided between some

Flame spread and smoke temperature of full-scale fire test of car fire

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dayan Li

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Full-scale experiments using two 4-door sedan passenger cars, placed side by side in the reverse direction, were carried out to establish the burning behavior and describe the spread of fire to adjacent car. The temperature was measured by thermocouples. Radiant heat flux was measured with heat flux gauge placed at a distance of 5 m, at the right side of the car. Four cameras were placed inside the car and in the fire test room recording burning behavior during the test. Engine compartment was ignited by a sponge dipped with little gasoline. During the experiment, the ignition was initiated in the engine compartment of car I and approximately 20 min were enough time for fire to spread into the second car. Fully-developed burning of two cars occurred at 29 min. It was observed that the flame spread through car roof faster than through the bottom of car compartment. The fire followed a slow rate spread from engine compartment to car cab. The temperature inside the car peaked at the point of 900 °C. The peak smoke temperatures at every location were measured at the range of 89–285 °C. The smoke production at the time of 11 min to 15 min 50 s of fire was 1.76 m3/s, which was obtained through indirect calculation method.

A study on fire spreading model for the safety distance between the neighborhood occupancies and historical buildings in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, C. H.; Chien, S. W.; Ho, M. C.

2015-08-01

Cultural heritages and historical buildings are vulnerable against severe threats from fire. Since the 1970s, ten fire-spread events involving historic buildings have occurred in Taiwan, affecting a total of 132 nearby buildings. Developed under the influence of traditional Taiwanese culture, historic buildings in Taiwan are often built using non-fire resistant brick-wood structure and located in proximity to residential occupancies. Fire outbreak in these types of neighborhood will lead to severe damage of antiquities, leaving only unrecoverable historical imagery. This study is aimed to investigate the minimal safety distance required between a historical building and its surroundings in order to reduce the risk of external fire. This study is based on literature analysis and the fire spread model using a Fire Dynamics Simulator. The selected target is Jingmei Temple in Taipei City. This study explored local geography to identify patterns behind historical buildings distribution. In the past, risk reduction engineering for cultural heritages and historical buildings focused mainly on fire equipment and the available personnel with emergency response ability, and little attention was given to external fire risks and the affected damage. Through discussions on the required safety distance, this research provides guidelines for the following items: management of neighborhoods with historical buildings and consultation between the protection of cultural heritages and disaster prevention, reducing the frequency and extent of fire damages, and preserving cultural resource.

Performance of a Protected Wireless Sensor Network in a Fire. Analysis of Fire Spread and Data Transmission

Science.gov (United States)

Antoine-Santoni, Thierry; Santucci, Jean-François; de Gentili, Emmanuelle; Silvani, Xavier; Morandini, Frederic

2009-01-01

The paper deals with a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) as a reliable solution for capturing the kinematics of a fire front spreading over a fuel bed. To provide reliable information in fire studies and support fire fighting strategies, a Wireless Sensor Network must be able to perform three sequential actions: 1) sensing thermal data in the open as the gas temperature; 2) detecting a fire i.e., the spatial position of a flame; 3) tracking the fire spread during its spatial and temporal evolution. One of the great challenges in performing fire front tracking with a WSN is to avoid the destruction of motes by the fire. This paper therefore shows the performance of Wireless Sensor Network when the motes are protected with a thermal insulation dedicated to track a fire spreading across vegetative fuels on a field scale. The resulting experimental WSN is then used in series of wildfire experiments performed in the open in vegetation areas ranging in size from 50 to 1,000 m2. PMID:22454563

Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacques Henri Balbi

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Simulating the interaction between fire and atmosphere is critical to the estimation of the rate of spread of the fire. Wildfire’s convection (i.e., entire plume can modify the local meteorology throughout the atmospheric boundary layer and consequently affect the fire propagation speed and behaviour. In this study, we use for the first time the Méso-NH meso-scale numerical model coupled to the point functional ForeFire simplified physical front-tracking wildfire model to investigate the differences introduced by the atmospheric feedback in propagation speed and behaviour. Both numerical models have been developed as research tools for operational models and are currently used to forecast localized extreme events. These models have been selected because they can be run coupled and support decisions in wildfire management in France and Europe. The main originalities of this combination reside in the fact that Méso-NH is run in a Large Eddy Simulation (LES configuration and that the rate of spread model used in ForeFire provides a physical formulation to take into account the effect of wind and slope. Simulations of typical experimental configurations show that the numerical atmospheric model is able to reproduce plausible convective effects of the heat produced by the fire. Numerical results are comparable to estimated values for fire-induced winds and present behaviour similar to other existing numerical approaches.

Fire spread simulation of a full scale cable tunnel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huhtanen, R.

1999-11-01

A fire simulation of a full scale tunnel was performed by using the commercial code EFFLUENT as the simulation platform. Estimation was made for fire spread on the stacked cable trays, possibility of fire spread to the cable trays on the opposite wall of the tunnel, detection time of smoke detectors in the smouldering phase and response of sprinkler heads in the flaming phase. According to the simulation, the rise of temperature in the smouldering phase is minimal, only of the order 1 deg C. The estimates of optical density of smoke show that normal smoke detectors should give an alarm within 2-4 minutes from the beginning of the smouldering phase, depending on the distance to the detector (in this case it was assumed that the thermal source connected to the smoke source was 50 W). The flow conditions at smoke detectors may be challenging, because the velocity magnitude is rather low at this phase. At 4 minutes the maximum velocity at the detectors is 0.12 m/s. During the flaming phase (beginning from 11 minutes) fire spreads on the stacked cable trays in an expected way, although the ignition criterion seems to perform poorly when ignition of new objects is considered. The Upper cable trays are forced to ignite by boundary condition definitions according to the experience found from ti full scale experiment and an earlier simulation. After 30 minutes the hot layer in the room becomes so hot that it speeds up the fire spread and the rate of heat release of burning objects. Further, the hot layer ignites the cable trays on the opposite wall of the tunnel after 45 minutes. It is estimated that the sprinkler heads would be activated at 20-22 minutes near the fire source and at 24-28 minutes little further from the fire source when fast sprinkler heads are used. The slow heads are activated between 26-32 minutes. (orig.)

Numerical Study to Find Mechanisms Behind the Spread of Hot Gases and Smoke in a Multi-room Fire

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Gong Hee [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

According to the international fire safety analysis studies, fire contributes significantly to the overall core damage frequency (CDF) for both existing and new nuclear power plants. Fire simulation models have been developed as analytical tools for a performance-based fire safety assessment. The use of calculated predictions could be considered, on the one hand, for improvements and upgrades of the fire protection by the licensees and, on the other hand, as a tool for reproducible and clearly understandable estimations in assessing the available and/or foreseen fire protection measures by the regulatory authority. In this study, in order to evaluate the prediction performance of fire simulation model for the spread of hot gases and smoke in a multi-room fire, calculations were conducted with Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) 6.4. In this study, in order to evaluate the prediction performance of fire simulation model for the spread of hot gases and smoke in a multi-room fire, calculations were conducted with FDS 6.4. The predicted results were compared with measured data (PRS{sub D}1) obtained from PRISME Door test series. The major conclusion could be summarized in fire (source) room, buoyant gases moved up to ceiling in fire plume and ceiling jet spread radially until confined by room partition. Additionally, because plume entrained surrounding air, relatively cold flow moved from target room toward fire (source) room through a lower part of open door and Although FDS could give the meaningful information to understand the thermal-flow pattern in the under-ventilated fire condition, it still had the limitation (for example, over-estimation of flame temperature) and then showed a certain level of uncertainty in the calculation result.

Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glasa, J; Valasek, L; Weisenpacher, P; Halada, L

2013-01-01

Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

Science.gov (United States)

Glasa, J.; Valasek, L.; Weisenpacher, P.; Halada, L.

2013-02-01

Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

Stochastic representation of fire behavior in a wildland fire protection planning model for California.

Science.gov (United States)

J. Keith Gilless; Jeremy S. Fried

1998-01-01

A fire behavior module was developed for the California Fire Economics Simulator version 2 (CFES2), a stochastic simulation model of initial attack on wildland fire used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Fire rate of spread (ROS) and fire dispatch level (FDL) for simulated fires "occurring" on the same day are determined by making...

Analytical model for cable tray fires

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, R.K.

1975-09-01

A model for cable tray fires based on buoyant plume theory is presented. Using the model in conjunction with empirical data on size of natural fires and burning rate of cellulosic materials, estimates are made of the heat flux as a function of vertical and horizontal distance from a tray fire. Both local fires and fires extending along a significant length of tray are considered. For the particular set of fire parameters assumed in the calculations, the current tray separation criteria of five feet vertical and three feet horizontal are found to be marginal for local fires and too small to prevent fire spread for extended tray fires. 8 references. (auth)

A laboratory-scale comparison of rate of spread model predictions using chaparral fuel beds – preliminary results

Science.gov (United States)

D.R. Weise; E. Koo; X. Zhou; S. Mahalingam

2011-01-01

Observed fire spread rates from 240 laboratory fires in horizontally-oriented single-species live fuel beds were compared to predictions from various implementations and modifications of the Rothermel rate of spread model and a physical fire spread model developed by Pagni and Koo. Packing ratio of the laboratory fuel beds was generally greater than that observed in...

IMPROVING THE INTEROPERABILITY OF DISASTER MODELS: A CASE STUDY OF PROPOSING FIREML FOR FOREST FIRE MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Jiang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML, extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

Improving the Interoperability of Disaster Models: a Case Study of Proposing Fireml for Forest Fire Model

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, W.; Wang, F.; Meng, Q.; Li, Z.; Liu, B.; Zheng, X.

2018-04-01

This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

Science.gov (United States)

Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

2010-05-01

Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations

Simulating an Infection Growth Model in Certain Healthy Metabolic Pathways of Homo sapiens for Highlighting Their Role in Type I Diabetes mellitus Using Fire-Spread Strategy, Feedbacks and Sensitivities

Science.gov (United States)

Tagore, Somnath; De, Rajat K.

2013-01-01

Disease Systems Biology is an area of life sciences, which is not very well understood to date. Analyzing infections and their spread in healthy metabolite networks can be one of the focussed areas in this regard. We have proposed a theory based on the classical forest fire model for analyzing the path of infection spread in healthy metabolic pathways. The theory suggests that when fire erupts in a forest, it spreads, and the surrounding trees also catch fire. Similarly, when we consider a metabolic network, the infection caused in the metabolites of the network spreads like a fire. We have constructed a simulation model which is used to study the infection caused in the metabolic networks from the start of infection, to spread and ultimately combating it. For implementation, we have used two approaches, first, based on quantitative strategies using ordinary differential equations and second, using graph-theory based properties. Furthermore, we are using certain probabilistic scores to complete this task and for interpreting the harm caused in the network, given by a ‘critical value’ to check whether the infection can be cured or not. We have tested our simulation model on metabolic pathways involved in Type I Diabetes mellitus in Homo sapiens. For validating our results biologically, we have used sensitivity analysis, both local and global, as well as for identifying the role of feedbacks in spreading infection in metabolic pathways. Moreover, information in literature has also been used to validate the results. The metabolic network datasets have been collected from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). PMID:24039701

Simulating an infection growth model in certain healthy metabolic pathways of Homo sapiens for highlighting their role in Type I Diabetes mellitus using fire-spread strategy, feedbacks and sensitivities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Somnath Tagore

Full Text Available Disease Systems Biology is an area of life sciences, which is not very well understood to date. Analyzing infections and their spread in healthy metabolite networks can be one of the focussed areas in this regard. We have proposed a theory based on the classical forest fire model for analyzing the path of infection spread in healthy metabolic pathways. The theory suggests that when fire erupts in a forest, it spreads, and the surrounding trees also catch fire. Similarly, when we consider a metabolic network, the infection caused in the metabolites of the network spreads like a fire. We have constructed a simulation model which is used to study the infection caused in the metabolic networks from the start of infection, to spread and ultimately combating it. For implementation, we have used two approaches, first, based on quantitative strategies using ordinary differential equations and second, using graph-theory based properties. Furthermore, we are using certain probabilistic scores to complete this task and for interpreting the harm caused in the network, given by a 'critical value' to check whether the infection can be cured or not. We have tested our simulation model on metabolic pathways involved in Type I Diabetes mellitus in Homo sapiens. For validating our results biologically, we have used sensitivity analysis, both local and global, as well as for identifying the role of feedbacks in spreading infection in metabolic pathways. Moreover, information in literature has also been used to validate the results. The metabolic network datasets have been collected from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG.

Modeling of marginal burning state of fire spread in live chaparral shrub fuel bed

Science.gov (United States)

X. Zhou; S. Mahalingam; D. Weise

2005-01-01

Prescribed burning in chaparral, currently used to manage wildland fuels and reduce wildfire hazard, is often conducted under marginal burning conditions. The relative importance of the fuel and environmental variables that determine fire spread success in chaparral fuels is not quantitatively understood. Based on extensive experimental study, a two-dimensional...

An examination of fire spread thresholds in discontinuous fuel beds

Science.gov (United States)

Mark A. Finney; Jack D. Cohen; Isaac C. Grenfell; Kara M. Yedinak

2010-01-01

Many fuel beds, especially live vegetation canopies (conifer forests, shrub fields, bunch-grasses) contain gaps between vegetation clumps. Fires burning in these fuel types often display thresholds for spread that are observed to depend on environmental factors like wind, slope, and fuel moisture content. To investigate threshold spread behaviours, we conducted a set...

Numerical simulation of fire spread in terminal 2 of Belgrade airport

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stevanović Žarko

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This paper concern the results of software fire spread process prototype in terminal 2 of Belgrade airport using computational fluid dynamics. Numerical simulation of fire for the most critical fire scenario has been performed, primarily obtaining the space and time distribution of: velocity, pressure, temperature, and smoke concentration, assuming that HVAC systems have been switched off and all doors on the evacuation ways have been opened, just as the fire started. Also, two simulations have been compared of the smoke ventilation and not ventilation for the same scenario. Within the framework of the results presentation, isosurfaces of constant temperature (100 ºC and smoke concentration (4000 ppm are presented, based on the numerical simulation. Progression of these surfaces along the terminal 2 coincides to the experimental and experience evidence, forming the plume zone just above the fireplace, and spreading in the zone of underground ceiling and stairwell openings. .

FIRE BEHAVIOR PREDICTING MODELS EFFICIENCY IN BRAZILIAN COMMERCIAL EUCALYPT PLANTATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin Leonardo Alves White

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Knowing how a wildfire will behave is extremely important in order to assist in fire suppression and prevention operations. Since the 1940’s mathematical models to estimate how the fire will behave have been developed worldwide, however, none of them, until now, had their efficiency tested in Brazilian commercial eucalypt plantations nor in other vegetation types in the country. This study aims to verify the accuracy of the Rothermel (1972 fire spread model, the Byram (1959 flame length model, and the fire spread and length equations derived from the McArthur (1962 control burn meters. To meet these objectives, 105 experimental laboratory fires were done and their results compared with the predicted values from the models tested. The Rothermel and Byram models predicted better than McArthur’s, nevertheless, all of them underestimated the fire behavior aspects evaluated and were statistically different from the experimental data.

Numerical modeling of laboratory-scale surface-to-crown fire transition

Science.gov (United States)

Castle, Drew Clayton

Understanding the conditions leading to the transition of fire spread from a surface fuel to an elevated (crown) fuel is critical to effective fire risk assessment and management. Surface fires that successfully transition to crown fires can be very difficult to suppress, potentially leading to damages in the natural and built environments. This is relevant to chaparral shrub lands which are common throughout parts of the Southwest U.S. and represent a significant part of the wildland urban interface. The ability of the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamic Simulator (WFDS) to model surface-to-crown fire transition was evaluated through comparison to laboratory experiments. The WFDS model is being developed by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The experiments were conducted at the USFS Forest Fire Laboratory in Riverside, California. The experiments measured the ignition of chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) crown fuel held above a surface fire spreading through excelsior fuel. Cases with different crown fuel bulk densities, crown fuel base heights, and imposed wind speeds were considered. Cold-flow simulations yielded wind speed profiles that closely matched the experimental measurements. Next, fire simulations with only the surface fuel were conducted to verify the rate of spread while factors such as substrate properties were varied. Finally, simulations with both a surface fuel and a crown fuel were completed. Examination of specific surface fire characteristics (rate of spread, flame angle, etc.) and the corresponding experimental surface fire behavior provided a basis for comparison of the factors most responsible for transition from a surface fire to the raised fuel ignition. The rate of spread was determined by tracking the flame in the Smokeview animations using a tool developed for tracking an actual flame in a video. WFDS simulations produced results in both surface fire spread and raised fuel bed

Model of large pool fires

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fay, J.A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)]. E-mail: jfay@mit.edu

2006-08-21

A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables.

Model of large pool fires

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fay, J.A.

2006-01-01

A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables

Modelling of Fire in an Open Car Park

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marton, Timea; Dederichs, Anne Simone; Giuliani, Luisa

2015-01-01

Steel car parks exhibit high vulnerability to fire, as a consequence of the degradation of the steel mechanical properties at high temperatures and of the combustible type and amount. Real fire accidents in open car parks demonstrated a much faster and extended fire spread than predictions......, assuming that a fire spread rate of 12 min and consider at most 3-4 vehicles on fire at the same time. Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) is applied in this current paper to study fire spread between cars. The outcomes of the investigations show that the fire spread is strongly influenced by the geometrical...... layout and that the distance between cars plays a determinant role on the fire spread rate and ignition of adjacent cars. In particular it was found that the fire spread can be faster than 12 minutes in the case of the cars parked 40 and 60 cm from each other....

Optimization of investment economic in PCI using the methodology of benefits design in analysis of the spread of fires with FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) in areas of nuclear fire

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salellas, J.

2015-01-01

Fire simulation analysis allows knowing the evolution and spread fire in areas of interest within a NPP such as control room, cable room and multi zone comportment among others. fires are a main concern regarding safety analysis of NPP. IDOM has the capability to carry out fire simulations, taken in to account smoke control, fire spread, toxicity levels, ventilation and all physical phenomena. As a result, appropriate fire protection measures can be assessed in each scenario. CFD tools applied to fire simulations can determine with higher resolution all damages caused during the fire. Furthermore, such tools can reduce costs due to a lower impact of design modifications. (Author)

Comparing effects of fire modeling methods on simulated fire patterns and succession: a case study in the Missouri Ozarks

Science.gov (United States)

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Eric J. Gustafson

2008-01-01

We compared four fire spread simulation methods (completely random, dynamic percolation. size-based minimum travel time algorithm. and duration-based minimum travel time algorithm) and two fire occurrence simulation methods (Poisson fire frequency model and hierarchical fire frequency model) using a two-way factorial design. We examined these treatment effects on...

An enhanced fire hazard assessment model and validation experiments for vertical cable trays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Lu; Huang, Xianjia; Bi, Kun; Liu, Xiaoshuang

2016-01-01

Highlights: • An enhanced model was developed for vertical cable fire hazard assessment in NPP. • The validated experiments on vertical cable tray fires were conducted. • The capability of the model for cable tray with different cable spacing were tested. - Abstract: The model, referred to as FLASH-CAT (Flame Spread over Horizontal Cable Trays), was developed to estimate the heat release rate for vertical cable tray fire. The focus of this work is to investigate the application of an enhanced model to the single vertical cable tray fires with different cable spacing. The experiments on vertical cable tray fires with three typical cable spacing were conducted. The histories of mass loss rate and flame length were recorded during the cable fire. From the experimental results, it is found that the space between cable lines intensifies the cable combustion and accelerates the flame spread. The predictions by the enhanced model show good agreements with the experimental data. At the same time, it is shown that the enhanced model is capable of predicting the different behaviors of cable fires with different cable spacing by adjusting the flame spread speed only.

An enhanced fire hazard assessment model and validation experiments for vertical cable trays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Lu [Sate Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230027 (China); Huang, Xianjia, E-mail: huangxianjia@gziit.ac.cn [Joint Laboratory of Fire Safety in Nuclear Power Plants, Institute of Industry Technology Guangzhou & Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 511458 (China); Bi, Kun; Liu, Xiaoshuang [China Nuclear Power Design Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518045 (China)

2016-05-15

Highlights: • An enhanced model was developed for vertical cable fire hazard assessment in NPP. • The validated experiments on vertical cable tray fires were conducted. • The capability of the model for cable tray with different cable spacing were tested. - Abstract: The model, referred to as FLASH-CAT (Flame Spread over Horizontal Cable Trays), was developed to estimate the heat release rate for vertical cable tray fire. The focus of this work is to investigate the application of an enhanced model to the single vertical cable tray fires with different cable spacing. The experiments on vertical cable tray fires with three typical cable spacing were conducted. The histories of mass loss rate and flame length were recorded during the cable fire. From the experimental results, it is found that the space between cable lines intensifies the cable combustion and accelerates the flame spread. The predictions by the enhanced model show good agreements with the experimental data. At the same time, it is shown that the enhanced model is capable of predicting the different behaviors of cable fires with different cable spacing by adjusting the flame spread speed only.

EMPIRICAL MODELS FOR DESCRIBING FIRE BEHAVIOR IN BRAZILIAN COMMERCIAL EUCALYPT PLANTATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin Leonardo Alves White

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Modeling forest fire behavior is an important task that can be used to assist in fire prevention and suppression operations. However, according to previous studies, the existing common worldwide fire behavior models used do not correctly estimate the fire behavior in Brazilian commercial hybrid eucalypt plantations. Therefore, this study aims to build new empirical models to predict the fire rate of spread, flame length and fuel consumption for such vegetation. To meet these objectives, 105 laboratory experimental burns were done, where the main fuel characteristics and weather variables that influence fire behavior were controlled and/or measured in each experiment. Dependent and independent variables were fitted through multiple regression analysis. The fire rate of spread proposed model is based on the wind speed, fuel bed bulk density and 1-h dead fuel moisture content (r2 = 0.86; the flame length model is based on the fuel bed depth, 1-h dead fuel moisture content and wind speed (r2 = 0.72; the fuel consumption proposed model has the 1-h dead fuel moisture, fuel bed bulk density and 1-h dead dry fuel load as independent variables (r2= 0.80. These models were used to develop a new fire behavior software, the “Eucalyptus Fire Safety System”.

Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

2015-01-01

Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

2015-07-01

Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

2015-07-01

Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

A combustion model of vegetation burning in "Tiger" fire propagation tool

Science.gov (United States)

Giannino, F.; Ascoli, D.; Sirignano, M.; Mazzoleni, S.; Russo, L.; Rego, F.

2017-11-01

In this paper, we propose a semi-physical model for the burning of vegetation in a wildland fire. The main physical-chemical processes involved in fire spreading are modelled through a set of ordinary differential equations, which describe the combustion process as linearly related to the consumption of fuel. The water evaporation process from leaves and wood is also considered. Mass and energy balance equations are written for fuel (leaves and wood) assuming that combustion process is homogeneous in space. The model is developed with the final aim of simulating large-scale wildland fires which spread on heterogeneous landscape while keeping the computation cost very low.

Fire spread probabilities for experimental beds composed of mixedwood boreal forest fuels

Science.gov (United States)

M.B. Dickinson; E.A. Johnson; R. Artiaga

2013-01-01

Although fuel characteristics are assumed to have an important impact on fire regimes through their effects on extinction dynamics, limited capabilities exist for predicting whether a fire will spread in mixedwood boreal forest surface fuels. To improve predictive capabilities, we conducted 347 no-wind, laboratory test burns in surface fuels collected from the mixed-...

A 3D vision system for the measurement of the rate of spread and the height of fire fronts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rossi, L; Molinier, T; Tison, Y; Pieri, A; Akhloufi, M

2010-01-01

This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) vision-based instrumentation system for the measurement of the rate of spread and height of complex fire fronts. The proposed 3D imaging system is simple, does not require calibration, is easily deployable in indoor and outdoor environments and can handle complex fire fronts. New approaches for measuring the position, the rate of spread and the height of a fire front during its propagation are introduced. Experiments were conducted in indoor and outdoor conditions with fires of different scales. Linear and curvilinear fire front spreading were studied. The obtained results are promising and show the interesting performance of the proposed system in operational and complex fire scenarios

Multi-compartment Fire Modeling for Switchgear Room using CFAST

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Kiyoon; Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon

2015-01-01

In this study, multi-compartment fire modeling for fire propagation scenario from SWGR A to SWGR B is performed using CFAST. New fire PSA method (NUREG/CR-6850) requires that the severity factor is to be calculated by fire modeling. If fire modeling is not performed, the severity factor should be estimated as one conservatively. Also, the possibility of the damages of components and cables located at adjacent compartments should be considered. Detailed fire modeling of multi-compartment fires refers to the evaluation of fire-generated conditions in one compartment that spread to adjacent ones. In general, the severity factor for multi-compartment fire scenario is smaller than that of single compartment scenario. Preliminary quantification of Hanul Unit 3 fire PSA was performed without fire modeling. As a result of quantification, multi-compartment scenario, fire propagation scenario from switchgear room (SWGR) A to SWGR B, is one of significant contributor to the CDF. In this study, fire modeling of multi-compartment was performed by Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport (CFAST) to identify the possibility of fire propagation. As a result of fire simulation, it is identified that fire propagation has little influences

Multi-compartment Fire Modeling for Switchgear Room using CFAST

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Han, Kiyoon; Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

In this study, multi-compartment fire modeling for fire propagation scenario from SWGR A to SWGR B is performed using CFAST. New fire PSA method (NUREG/CR-6850) requires that the severity factor is to be calculated by fire modeling. If fire modeling is not performed, the severity factor should be estimated as one conservatively. Also, the possibility of the damages of components and cables located at adjacent compartments should be considered. Detailed fire modeling of multi-compartment fires refers to the evaluation of fire-generated conditions in one compartment that spread to adjacent ones. In general, the severity factor for multi-compartment fire scenario is smaller than that of single compartment scenario. Preliminary quantification of Hanul Unit 3 fire PSA was performed without fire modeling. As a result of quantification, multi-compartment scenario, fire propagation scenario from switchgear room (SWGR) A to SWGR B, is one of significant contributor to the CDF. In this study, fire modeling of multi-compartment was performed by Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport (CFAST) to identify the possibility of fire propagation. As a result of fire simulation, it is identified that fire propagation has little influences.

Data for Room Fire Model Comparisons.

Science.gov (United States)

Peacock, Richard D; Davis, Sanford; Babrauskas, Vytenis

1991-01-01

With the development of models to predict fire growth and spread in buildings, there has been a concomitant evolution in the measurement and analysis of experimental data in real-scale fires. This report presents the types of analyses that can be used to examine large-scale room fire test data to prepare the data for comparison with zone-based fire models. Five sets of experimental data which can be used to test the limits of a typical two-zone fire model are detailed. A standard set of nomenclature describing the geometry of the building and the quantities measured in each experiment is presented. Availability of ancillary data (such as smaller-scale test results) is included. These descriptions, along with the data (available in computer-readable form) should allow comparisons between the experiment and model predictions. The base of experimental data ranges in complexity from one room tests with individual furniture items to a series of tests conducted in a multiple story hotel equipped with a zoned smoke control system.

Data for Room Fire Model Comparisons

Science.gov (United States)

Peacock, Richard D.; Davis, Sanford; Babrauskas, Vytenis

1991-01-01

With the development of models to predict fire growth and spread in buildings, there has been a concomitant evolution in the measurement and analysis of experimental data in real-scale fires. This report presents the types of analyses that can be used to examine large-scale room fire test data to prepare the data for comparison with zone-based fire models. Five sets of experimental data which can be used to test the limits of a typical two-zone fire model are detailed. A standard set of nomenclature describing the geometry of the building and the quantities measured in each experiment is presented. Availability of ancillary data (such as smaller-scale test results) is included. These descriptions, along with the data (available in computer-readable form) should allow comparisons between the experiment and model predictions. The base of experimental data ranges in complexity from one room tests with individual furniture items to a series of tests conducted in a multiple story hotel equipped with a zoned smoke control system. PMID:28184121

Spread of smoke and heat along narrow air cavity in double-skin façade fires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chow Lun Cheuk

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A scenario on double-skin façade fire was identified earlier for hazard assessment. A flashover room fire occurred next to the façade, broke the interior glass pane and spread to the façade cavity. As observed in experiments, hot gas moved up as a vertical channel flow for narrow façade cavity. Heat and smoke spread along the narrow air cavity of a double-skin façade will be studied in this paper. A simple mathematical model is developed from basic heat transfer theory for studying the vertical air temperature profiles of the hot gas flowing along the cavity. Assuming one-dimensional flow for hot gas moving up the façade cavity, conservation equations on mass and enthalpy were solved. Experimental results on two double-skin façade rigs of height 6 m and 15 m with narrow cavity depth were used to justify the results. A total of 11 tests were carried out. Correlation expressions between cavity air temperature and the height above ceiling of the fire room were derived.

Identifying the Threshold of Dominant Controls on Fire Spread in a Boreal Forest Landscape of Northeast China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhihua; Yang, Jian; He, Hong S.

2013-01-01

The relative importance of fuel, topography, and weather on fire spread varies at different spatial scales, but how the relative importance of these controls respond to changing spatial scales is poorly understood. We designed a “moving window” resampling technique that allowed us to quantify the relative importance of controls on fire spread at continuous spatial scales using boosted regression trees methods. This quantification allowed us to identify the threshold value for fire size at which the dominant control switches from fuel at small sizes to weather at large sizes. Topography had a fluctuating effect on fire spread across the spatial scales, explaining 20–30% of relative importance. With increasing fire size, the dominant control switched from bottom-up controls (fuel and topography) to top-down controls (weather). Our analysis suggested that there is a threshold for fire size, above which fires are driven primarily by weather and more likely lead to larger fire size. We suggest that this threshold, which may be ecosystem-specific, can be identified using our “moving window” resampling technique. Although the threshold derived from this analytical method may rely heavily on the sampling technique, our study introduced an easily implemented approach to identify scale thresholds in wildfire regimes. PMID:23383247

Heat transfer and fire spread

Science.gov (United States)

Hal E. Anderson

1969-01-01

Experimental testing of a mathematical model showed that radiant heat transfer accounted for no more than 40% of total heat flux required to maintain rate of spread. A reasonable prediction of spread was possible by assuming a horizontal convective heat transfer coefficient when certain fuel and flame characteristics were known. Fuel particle size had a linear relation...

Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

Science.gov (United States)

Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

2015-01-01

An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

Numerical Modelling of Fire-Atmosphere Interactions and the 2003 Canberra Bushfires

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, C.; Sturman, A.; Zawar-Reza, P.

2010-12-01

It is well known that the behaviour of a wildland fire is strongly associated with the conditions of its surrounding atmosphere. However, the two-way interactions between fire behaviour and the atmospheric conditions are not well understood. A numerical model is used to simulate wildland fires so that the nature of these fire-atmosphere interactions, and how they might affect fire behaviour, can be further investigated. The 2003 Canberra bushfires are used as a case study due to their highly destructive and unusual behaviour. On the 18th January 2003, these fires spread to the urban suburbs of Canberra, resulting in the loss of four lives and the destruction of over 500 homes. Fire-atmosphere interactions are believed to have played an important role in making these fires so destructive. WRF-Fire is used to perform real data simulations of the 2003 Canberra bushfires. WRF-Fire is a coupled fire-atmosphere model, which combines a semi-empirical fire spread model with an atmospheric model, allowing it to directly simulate the two-way interactions between a fire and its surrounding atmosphere. These simulations show the impact of the presence of a fire on conditions within the atmospheric boundary layer. This modification of the atmosphere, resulting from the injection of heat and moisture released by the fire, appears to have a direct feedback onto the overall fire behaviour. The bushfire simulations presented in this paper provide important scientific insights into the nature of fire-atmosphere interactions for a real situation. It is expected that they will also help fire managers in Australia to better understand why the 2003 Canberra bushfires were so destructive, as well as to gain improved insight into bushfire behaviour in general.

Simulation on spread of fire smoke in the elevator shaft for a high-rise building

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunchun Xia

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Spread of fire smoke in the elevator shaft of a high-rise building is influenced by many driving facts. We simulate smoke spreading in the elevator shaft, stair room, and pre-chamber with and without different supplied pressurized air. The simulation shows that smoke moves very fast in the elevator shaft. When a 12 floor high-rise building is in fire, smoke can fill up the elevator shaft in less than 1.5 min after a fire started, temperature in the elevator shaft can be higher than 187°C in 5 min, and the concentration of CO can also reach a high level. The elevator shaft has a very low visibility in less than about 100 s.

Joint modeling of human dwellings and the natural ecosystem at the wildland-urban interface helps mitigation of forest-fire risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ghil, M.; Spyratos, V.; Bourgeron, P. S.

2007-12-01

The late summer of 2007 has seen again a large number of catastrophic forest fires in the Western United States and Southern Europe. These fires arose in or spread to human habitats at the so-called wildland-urban interface (WUI). Within the conterminous United States alone, the WUI occupies just under 10 percent of the surface and contains almost 40 percent of all housing units. Recent dry spells associated with climate variability and climate change make the impact of such catastrophic fires a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists and the general public. In order to explore the qualitative influence of the presence of houses on fire spread, we considered only uniform landscapes and fire spread as a simple percolation process, with given house densities d and vegetation flammabilities p. Wind, topography, fuel heterogeneities, firebrands and weather affect actual fire spread. The present theoretical results would therefore, need to be integrated into more detailed fire models before practical, quantitative applications of the present results. Our simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, shows that fire-size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density d and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability p and house density d. The sharpness of this transition is related to the critical thresholds that arise in percolation theory for an infinite domain; it is their translation into our model's finite-area domain, which is a more realistic representation of actual fire landscapes. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition zone. Hence, and despite having neglected additional complexities, our idealized model's results indicate that more detailed models used for assessing fire risk in the WUI should integrate the density and flammability of houses in these areas. Furthermore, our

Numerical study of propagation of forest fires in the presence of fire breaks using an averaged setting

Science.gov (United States)

Marzaeva, S. I.; Galtseva, O. V.

2018-05-01

The forest fires spread in the pine forests have been numerically simulated using a three-dimensional mathematical model. The model was integrated with respect to the vertical coordinate because horizontal sizes of forest are much greater than the heights of trees. In this paper, the assignment and theoretical investigations of the problems of crown forest fires spread pass the firebreaks were carried out. In this context, a study ( mathematical modeling) of the conditions of forest fire spreading that would make it possible to obtain a detailed picture of the change in the temperature and component concentration fields with time, and determine as well as the limiting condition of fire propagation in forest with these fire breaks.

Development of a Base Model for the New Fire PSA Training

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Kilyoo; Kang, Daeil; Kim, Wee Kyong; Do, Kyu Sik

2013-01-01

US NRC/EPRI issued a new fire PSA method represented by NUREG/CR 6850, and have been training many operators and inspectors to widely spread the new method. However, there is a limitation in time and efficiency for many foreigners, who generally have communication problem, to participate in the EPRI/NRC training to learn the new method. Since it is about time to introduce the new fire PSA method as a regulatory requirement for the fire protection in Korea, a simple and easy-understandable base model for the fire PSA training is required, and KAERI-KINS is jointly preparing the base model for the new fire PSA training. This paper describes how the base model is developed. Using an imaginary simple NPP, a base model of fire PSA following the new fire PSA method was developed in two ways from the internal PSA model. Since we have the base model and know the process of making the fire PSA model, the training for the new fire PSA method can be in detail performed in Korea

Towards Data-Driven Simulations of Wildfire Spread using Ensemble-based Data Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Rochoux, M. C.; Bart, J.; Ricci, S. M.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.; Duchaine, F.; Morel, T.

2012-12-01

Real-time predictions of a propagating wildfire remain a challenging task because the problem involves both multi-physics and multi-scales. The propagation speed of wildfires, also called the rate of spread (ROS), is indeed determined by complex interactions between pyrolysis, combustion and flow dynamics, atmospheric dynamics occurring at vegetation, topographical and meteorological scales. Current operational fire spread models are mainly based on a semi-empirical parameterization of the ROS in terms of vegetation, topographical and meteorological properties. For the fire spread simulation to be predictive and compatible with operational applications, the uncertainty on the ROS model should be reduced. As recent progress made in remote sensing technology provides new ways to monitor the fire front position, a promising approach to overcome the difficulties found in wildfire spread simulations is to integrate fire modeling and fire sensing technologies using data assimilation (DA). For this purpose we have developed a prototype data-driven wildfire spread simulator in order to provide optimal estimates of poorly known model parameters [*]. The data-driven simulation capability is adapted for more realistic wildfire spread : it considers a regional-scale fire spread model that is informed by observations of the fire front location. An Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm (EnKF) based on a parallel computing platform (OpenPALM) was implemented in order to perform a multi-parameter sequential estimation where wind magnitude and direction are in addition to vegetation properties (see attached figure). The EnKF algorithm shows its good ability to track a small-scale grassland fire experiment and ensures a good accounting for the sensitivity of the simulation outcomes to the control parameters. As a conclusion, it was shown that data assimilation is a promising approach to more accurately forecast time-varying wildfire spread conditions as new airborne-like observations of

A Finsler geodesic spray paradigm for wildfire spread modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Markvorsen, Steen

2015-01-01

represents the local fire templates. The ‘paradigm’ part of the present proposal is thus concerned with the corresponding shift of attention from the actual fire-lines to consider instead the geodesic spray - the ‘fire-particles’ - which together, side by side, mold the fire-lines at each instant of time...... and thence eventually constitute the local and global structure of the wildfire spread....

WRF-Fire Applied in Bulgaria

OpenAIRE

Dobrinkova, Nina; Jordanov, Georgi; Mandel, Jan

2010-01-01

WRF-Fire consists of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) coupled with a fire spread model, based on the level-set method. We describe a preliminary application of WRF-Fire to a forest fire in Bulgaria, oportunities for research of forest fire models for Bulgaria, and plans for the development of an Environmental Decision Support Systems which includes computational modeling of fire behavior.

Application of fire models for risk analysis in french nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brauns, P.

1989-04-01

Numerical simulations of compartment fires have been carried out in the French 900 MW and 1 300 MW nuclear power plants, to obtain quantitative data about this particular kind of risk: characteristic spreading times from one redundant electrical train to the other one, behaviour of important electrical components... The main stages of both studies were the following: selection of rooms, the location or function of which are essential for the plant safety in case of fire, on-site inspections to collect information about these rooms (amount of fuel, openings...), definition of fire scenarios, improvement of the fire model VESTA-PLUS, and, finally calculations using this computer code. The simulations have shown two major trends: i) the spreading times, without taking into account any external intervention, are always greater than half an hour, and ii) the specific design of the 1 300 MW power plants generally prevents one of the redundant train from being damaged due to a fire occurring in a room containing the other one. Examples of typical results obtained are given, showing the capability of application of the improved fire model to complex problems

Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G; Gauthier, Sylvie

2016-01-01

It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.

Quantitative comparison of fire danger index performance using fire activity

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Steenkamp, KC

2012-07-01

Full Text Available parameters such as flame length or rate of spread can be physically measured or modeled. Fire danger indices are not designed to describe the characteristics of a fire but rather the potential of a fire taking place in an area of interest [5]. Several...

Advanced numerical modelling of a fire. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heikkilae, L.; Keski-Rahkonen, O.

1996-03-01

Experience and probabilistic risk assessments show that fires present a major hazard in a nuclear power plant (NPP). The PALOME project (1988-92) improved the quality of numerical simulation of fires to make it a useful tool for fire safety analysis. Some of the most advanced zone model fire simulation codes were acquired. The performance of the codes was studied through literature and personal interviews in earlier studies and BRI2 code from the Japanese Building Research Institute was selected for further use. In PALOME 2 project this work was continued. Information obtained from large-scale fire tests at the German HDR facility allowed reliable prediction of the rate of heat release and was used for code validation. BRI2 code was validated particularly by participation in the CEC standard problem 'Prediction of effects caused by a cable fire experiment within the HDR-facility'. Participation in the development of a new field model code SOFIE specifically for fire applications as British-Swedish-Finnish cooperation was one of the goals of the project. SOFIE code was implemented at VTT and the first results of validation simulations were obtained. Well instrumented fire tests on electronic cabinets were carried out to determine source terms for simulation of room fires and to estimate fire spread to adjacent cabinets. The particular aim of this study was to measure the rate of heat release from a fire in an electronic cabinet. From the three tests, differing mainly in the amount of the fire load, data was obtained for source terms in numerical modelling of fires in rooms containing electronic cabinets. On the basis of these tests also a simple natural ventilation model was derived. (19 refs.)

A hybrid small-world network/semi-physical model for predicting wildfire spread in heterogeneous landscapes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Billaud, Y; Kaiss, A; Drissi, M; Pizzo, Y; Porterie, B; Zekri, N; Acem, Z; Collin, A; Boulet, P; Santoni, P-A; Bosseur, F

2012-01-01

This paper presents the latest developments and validation results of a hybrid model which combines a broad-scale stochastic small-world network model with a macroscopic deterministic approach, to simulate the effects of large fires burning in heterogeneous landscapes. In the extended version of the model, vegetation is depicted as an amorphous network of combustible cells, and both radiation and convection from the flaming zone are considered in the preheating process of unburned cells. Examples are given to illustrate small-world effects and fire behavior near the percolation threshold. The model is applied to a Mediterranean fire that occurred in Corsica in 2009 showing a good agreement in terms of rate of spread, and area and shape of the burn. A study, based on a fractional factorial plan, is conducted to evaluate the influence of variations of model parameters on fire propagation.

Fire science at LLNL: A review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hasegawa, H.K. (ed.)

1990-03-01

This fire sciences report from LLNL includes topics on: fire spread in trailer complexes, properties of welding blankets, validation of sprinkler systems, fire and smoke detectors, fire modeling, and other fire engineering and safety issues. (JEF)

How to generate and interpret fire characteristics charts for surface and crown fire behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Patricia L. Andrews; Faith Ann Heinsch; Luke Schelvan

2011-01-01

A fire characteristics chart is a graph that presents primary related fire behavior characteristics-rate of spread, flame length, fireline intensity, and heat per unit area. It helps communicate and interpret modeled or observed fire behavior. The Fire Characteristics Chart computer program plots either observed fire behavior or values that have been calculated by...

Quantifying soil burn severity for hydrologic modeling to assess post-fire effects on sediment delivery

Science.gov (United States)

Dobre, Mariana; Brooks, Erin; Lew, Roger; Kolden, Crystal; Quinn, Dylan; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete

2017-04-01

Soil erosion is a secondary fire effect with great implications for many ecosystem resources. Depending on the burn severity, topography, and the weather immediately after the fire, soil erosion can impact municipal water supplies, degrade water quality, and reduce reservoirs' storage capacity. Scientists and managers use field and remotely sensed data to quickly assess post-fire burn severity in ecologically-sensitive areas. From these assessments, mitigation activities are implemented to minimize post-fire flood and soil erosion and to facilitate post-fire vegetation recovery. Alternatively, land managers can use fire behavior and spread models (e.g. FlamMap, FARSITE, FOFEM, or CONSUME) to identify sensitive areas a priori, and apply strategies such as fuel reduction treatments to proactively minimize the risk of wildfire spread and increased burn severity. There is a growing interest in linking fire behavior and spread models with hydrology-based soil erosion models to provide site-specific assessment of mitigation treatments on post-fire runoff and erosion. The challenge remains, however, that many burn severity mapping and modeling products quantify vegetation loss rather than measuring soil burn severity. Wildfire burn severity is spatially heterogeneous and depends on the pre-fire vegetation cover, fuel load, topography, and weather. Severities also differ depending on the variable of interest (e.g. soil, vegetation). In the United States, Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps, derived from Landsat satellite images, are used as an initial burn severity assessment. BARC maps are classified from either a Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) or differenced Normalized Burned Ratio (dNBR) scene into four classes (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High severity). The development of soil burn severity maps requires further manual field validation efforts to transform the BARC maps into a product more applicable for post-fire soil rehabilitation activities

Fire weather conditions and fire-atmosphere interactions observed during low-intensity prescribed fires - RxCADRE 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Craig B. Clements; Neil P. Lareau; Daisuke Seto; Jonathan Contezac; Braniff Davis; Casey Teske; Thomas J. Zajkowski; Andrew T. Hudak; Benjamin C. Bright; Matthew B. Dickinson; Bret W. Butler; Daniel Jimenez; J. Kevin. Hiers

2016-01-01

The role of fire-atmosphere coupling on fire behaviour is not well established, and to date few field observations have been made to investigate the interactions between fire spread and fire-induced winds. Therefore, comprehensive field observations are needed to better understand micrometeorological aspects of fire spread. To address this need, meteorological...

A Study on Spreading Direction of Coal-fire Based with TIR Remote Sensing in Wuda Coalfield from 2000 to 2006, Northern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huo, H-Y; Jiang, X-G; Song, X-F; Liu, L; Ni, Z-Y; Gao, C-X; Zhang, Y-Z

2014-01-01

Coal fires are a common and serious problem in most coal producing countries. Coal fires could not only lead to a huge loss of non-renewable energy resources, but it also can cause many environmental problems such as GHG emission, land subsidence and increment of surface temperature. So it is very important to monitor the dynamic changes of coal fires. As far as large scale coal field, remote sensing provided researchers with a new and useful technique for coal fire detection. This paper developed a research over coal fire spreading direction using a multi-temporal TIR remote sensing approach. The results successfully showed that the direction of coal fire spreading and predicted the coal fire direction of development on a regional scale or on a whole coal field scale, and a quantitative analysis of coal fires was made in the research. The results showed that the coal fires had an average annual increase of 0.5 million square meters from 1999 to 2006, and the TIR remote sensing proved to be an available tool for coal fire mapping and prediction of coal fire development

Deterministic analysis of mid scale outdoor fire

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vidmar, P.; Petelin, S.

2003-01-01

The idea behind the article is how to define fire behaviour. The work is based on an analytical study of fire origin, its development and spread. Mathematical fire model called FDS (Fire Dynamic Simulator) is used in the presented work. A CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) model using LES (Large Eddie Simulation) is used to calculate fire development and spread of combustion products in the environment. The fire source is located in the vicinity of the hazardous plant, power, chemical etc. The article presents the brief background of the FDS computer program and the initial and boundary conditions used in the mathematical model. Results discuss output data and check the validity of results. The work also presents some corrections of the physical model used, which influence the quality of results. The obtained results were discussed and compared with the Fire Safety Analysis report included in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Krsko nuclear power plant. (author)

Numerical modeling of turbulent combustion and flame spread

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yan Zhenghua

1999-01-01

Theoretical models have been developed to address several important aspects of numerical modeling of turbulent combustion and flame spread. The developed models include a pyrolysis model for charring and non-charring solid materials, a fast narrow band radiation property evaluation model (FASTNB) and a turbulence model for buoyant flow and flame. In the pyrolysis model, a completely new algorithm has been proposed, where a moving dual mesh concept was developed and implemented. With this new concept, it provides proper spatial resolution for both temperature and density and automatically considers the regression of the surface of the non-charring solid material during its pyrolysis. It is simple, very efficient and applicable to both charring and non-charring materials. FASTNB speeds up significantly the evaluation of narrow band spectral radiation properties and thus provides a potential of applying narrow band model in numerical simulations of practical turbulent combustion. The turbulence model was developed to improve the consideration of buoyancy effect on turbulence and turbulent transport. It was found to be simple, promising and numerically stable. It has been tested against both plane and axisymmetric thermal plumes and an axisymmetric buoyant diffusion flame. When compared with the widely used standard buoyancy-modified {kappa} - {epsilon} model, it gives significant improvement on numerical results. These developed models have been fully incorporated into CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code and coupled with other CFD sub-models, including the DT (Discrete Transfer) radiation model, EDC (Eddy Dissipation Concept) combustion model, flamelet combustion model, various soot models and transpired wall function. Comprehensive numerical simulations have been carried out to study soot formation and oxidation in turbulent buoyant diffusion flames, flame heat transfer and flame spread in fires. The gas temperature and velocity, soot volume fraction, wall

Optimization of investment economic in PCI using the methodology of benefits design in analysis of the spread of fires with FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) in areas of nuclear fire; Optimizacion de la inversion economica en PCI mediante la metodologia de diseo prestaional en el analisis de la propagacion de incendios con FDS (Fire Dynnamics Simulator) en areas de fuego de centrales nucleares

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salellas, J.

2015-07-01

Fire simulation analysis allows knowing the evolution and spread fire in areas of interest within a NPP such as control room, cable room and multi zone comportment among others. fires are a main concern regarding safety analysis of NPP. IDOM has the capability to carry out fire simulations, taken in to account smoke control, fire spread, toxicity levels, ventilation and all physical phenomena. As a result, appropriate fire protection measures can be assessed in each scenario. CFD tools applied to fire simulations can determine with higher resolution all damages caused during the fire. Furthermore, such tools can reduce costs due to a lower impact of design modifications. (Author)

Physical characteristics of shrub and conifer fuels for fire behavior models

Science.gov (United States)

Jonathan R. Gallacher; Thomas H. Fletcher; Victoria Lansinger; Sydney Hansen; Taylor Ellsworth; David R. Weise

2017-01-01

The physical properties and dimensions of foliage are necessary inputs for some fire spread models. Currently, almost no data exist on these plant characteristics to fill this need. In this report, we measured the physical properties and dimensions of the foliage from 10 live shrub and conifer fuels throughout a 1-year period. We developed models to predict relative...

Wildfire spread, hazard and exposure metric raster grids for central Catalonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fermín J. Alcasena

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We provide 40 m resolution wildfire spread, hazard and exposure metric raster grids for the 0.13 million ha fire-prone Bages County in central Catalonia (northeastern Spain corresponding to node influence grid (NIG, crown fraction burned (CFB and fire transmission to residential houses (TR. Fire spread and behavior data (NIG, CFB and fire perimeters were generated with fire simulation modeling considering wildfire season extreme fire weather conditions (97th percentile. Moreover, CFB was also generated for prescribed fire (Rx mild weather conditions. The TR smoothed grid was obtained with a geospatial analysis considering large fire perimeters and individual residential structures located within the study area. We made these raster grids available to assist in the optimization of wildfire risk management plans within the study area and to help mitigate potential losses from catastrophic events. Keywords: Catalonia, Wildfire exposure, Fire transmission, Crown fire activity, Prescribed fires

Forest fire effects on transpiration: process modeling of sapwood area reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Michaletz, Sean; Johnson, Edward

2010-05-01

Transpiration is a hydrological process that is strongly affected by forest fires. In crown fires, canopy fine fuels (foliage, buds, and small branches) combust, which kills individual trees and stops transpiration of the entire stand. In surface fires (intensities ≤ 2500 kW m-1), however, effects on transpiration are less predictable becuase heat transfer from the passing fireline can injure or kill fine roots, leaves, and sapwood; post-fire transpiration of forest stands is thus governed by fire effects on individual tree water budgets. Here, we consider fire effects on cross-sectional sapwood area. A two-dimensional model of transient bole heating is used to estimate radial isotherms for a range of fireline intensities typical of surface fires. Isotherms are then used to drive three processes by which heat may reduce sapwood area: 1) necrosis of living cells in contact with xylem conduits, which prevents repair of natural embolism; 2) relaxation of viscoelastic conduit wall polymers (cellulose, hemicelloluse, and lignin), which reduces cross-sectional conduit area; and 3) boiling of metastable water under tension, which causes conduit embolism. Results show that these processes operate on different time scales, suggesting that fire effects on transpiration vary with time since fire. The model can be linked with a three-dimensional physical fire spread model to predict size-dependent effects on individual trees, which can be used to estimate scaling of individual tree and stand-level transpiration.

Fire regime in Mediterranean ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Biondi, Guido; Casula, Paolo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo

2010-05-01

The analysis of burnt areas time series in Mediterranean regions suggests that ecosystems characterising this area consist primarily of species highly vulnerable to the fire but highly resilient, as characterized by a significant regenerative capacity after the fire spreading. In a few years the area burnt may once again be covered by the same vegetation present before the fire. Similarly, Mediterranean conifer forests, which often refers to plantations made in order to reforest the areas most severely degraded with high erosion risk, regenerate from seed after the fire resulting in high resilience to the fire as well. Only rarely, and usually with negligible damages, fire affects the areas covered by climax species in relation with altitude and soil types (i.e, quercus, fagus, abies). On the basis of these results, this paper shows how the simple Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is able to reproduce the forest fire regime in terms of number of fires and burned area, describing whit good accuracy the actual fire perimeters. The original Drossel-Schwabl model has been slightly modified in this work by introducing two parameters (probability of propagation and regrowth) specific for each different class of vegetation cover. Using model selection methods based on AIC, the model with the optimal number of classes with different fire behaviour was selected. Two different case studies are presented in this work: Regione Liguria and Regione Sardegna (Italy). Both regions are situated in the center of the Mediterranean and are characterized by a high number of fires and burned area. However, the two regions have very different fire regimes. Sardinia is affected by the fire phenomenon only in summer whilst Liguria is affected by fires also in winter, with higher number of fires and larger burned area. In addition, the two region are very different in vegetation cover. The presence of Mediterranean conifers, (Pinus Pinaster, Pinus Nigra, Pinus halepensis) is quite spread in

Potential economic impact of introduction and spread of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, in Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Gutrich, J.J.; VanGelder, E.; Loope, L.

2007-01-01

Globally, many invasive alien species have caused extensive ecological and economic damage from either accidental or intentional introduction. The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, has created billions of dollars in costs annually, spreading as an invasive species across the southern United States. In 1998, the red imported fire ant spread into California creating a highly probable future introduction via shipped products to Hawaii. This paper presents the estimation of potential economic impacts of the red imported fire ant (RIFA) to the state of Hawaii. Evaluation of impacts focuses on the economic sectors of (1) households, (2) agriculture (cattle and crop production), (3) infrastructure (cemeteries, churches, cities, electrical, telephone, and cable services, highways, hospitals and schools), (4) recreation, tourism and business (hotels/resort areas, golf courses, commercial businesses and tourists), and (5) government expenditures (with minimal intervention). The full annual economic costs of the red imported fire ant to Hawaii are estimated (in US$ 2006) to be $211 million/year, comprised of $77 million in damages and expenditures and $134 million in foregone outdoor opportunities to households and tourists. The present value of the projected costs of RIFA over a 20-year period after introduction total $2.5 billion. RIFA invasions across the globe indicate that economic cost-effective action in Hawaii entails implementation of prevention, early detection and rapid response treatment programs for RIFA. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Review of Fire Interactions and Mass Fires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark A. Finney

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The character of a wildland fire can change dramatically in the presence of another nearby fire. Understanding and predicting the changes in behavior due to fire-fire interactions cannot only be life-saving to those on the ground, but also be used to better control a prescribed fire to meet objectives. In discontinuous fuel types, such interactions may elicit fire spread where none otherwise existed. Fire-fire interactions occur naturally when spot fires start ahead of the main fire and when separate fire events converge in one location. Interactions can be created intentionally during prescribed fires by using spatial ignition patterns. Mass fires are among the most extreme examples of interactive behavior. This paper presents a review of the detailed effects of fire-fire interaction in terms of merging or coalescence criteria, burning rates, flame dimensions, flame temperature, indraft velocity, pulsation, and convection column dynamics. Though relevant in many situations, these changes in fire behavior have yet to be included in any operational-fire models or decision support systems.

Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C

2015-05-01

Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect.

Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C.

2015-01-01

Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect. PMID:26190905

Fire risk in California

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Seth Howard

Fire is an integral part of ecosystems in the western United States. Decades of fire suppression have led to (unnaturally) large accumulations of fuel in some forest communities, such as the lower elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada. Urban sprawl into fire prone chaparral vegetation in southern California has put human lives at risk and the decreased fire return intervals have put the vegetation community at risk of type conversion. This research examines the factors affecting fire risk in two of the dominant landscapes in the state of California, chaparral and inland coniferous forests. Live fuel moisture (LFM) is important for fire ignition, spread rate, and intensity in chaparral. LFM maps were generated for Los Angeles County by developing and then inverting robust cross-validated regression equations from time series field data and vegetation indices (VIs) and phenological metrics from MODIS data. Fire fuels, including understory fuels which are not visible to remote sensing instruments, were mapped in Yosemite National Park using the random forests decision tree algorithm and climatic, topographic, remotely sensed, and fire history variables. Combining the disparate data sources served to improve classification accuracies. The models were inverted to produce maps of fuel models and fuel amounts, and these showed that fire fuel amounts are highest in the low elevation forests that have been most affected by fire suppression impacting the natural fire regime. Wildland fires in chaparral commonly burn in late summer or fall when LFM is near its annual low, however, the Jesusita Fire burned in early May of 2009, when LFM was still relatively high. The HFire fire spread model was used to simulate the growth of the Jesusita Fire using LFM maps derived from imagery acquired at the time of the fire and imagery acquired in late August to determine how much different the fire would have been if it had occurred later in the year. Simulated fires were 1.5 times larger

Modeling of compartment fire

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sathiah, P.; Siccama, A.; Visser, D.; Komen, E.

2011-01-01

Fire accident in a containment is a serious threat to nuclear reactors. Fire can cause substantial loss to life and property. The risk posed by fire can also exceed the risk from internal events within a nuclear reactor. Numerous research efforts have been performed to understand and analyze the phenomenon of fire in nuclear reactor and its consequences. Modeling of fire is an important subject in the field of fire safety engineering. Two approaches which are commonly used in fire modeling are zonal modeling and field modeling. The objective of this work is to compare zonal and field modeling approach against a pool fired experiment performed in a well-confined compartment. Numerical simulations were performed against experiments, which were conducted within PRISME program under the framework of OECD. In these experiments, effects of ventilation flow rate on heat release rate in a confined and mechanically ventilated compartment is investigated. Time dependent changes in gas temperature and oxygen mass fraction were measured. The trends obtained by numerical simulation performed using zonal model and field model compares well with experiments. Further validation is needed before this code can be used for fire safety analyses. (author)

Fire models for assessment of nuclear power plant fires

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicolette, V.F.; Nowlen, S.P.

1989-01-01

This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in available fire models for the assessment of nuclear power plants fires. The advantages and disadvantages of three basic types of fire models (zone, field, and control volume) and Sandia's experience with these models will be discussed. It is shown that the type of fire model selected to solve a particular problem should be based on the information that is required. Areas of concern which relate to all nuclear power plant fire models are identified. 17 refs., 6 figs

WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

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Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

2012-01-01

A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

Fire exposed facades: Numerical modelling of the LEPIR2 testing facility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dréan Virginie

2016-01-01

Full Text Available LEPIR2 testing facility is aimed to evaluate the fire behaviour of construction solutions implemented on facade according with the experimental evaluation required by the French Technical Specification 249 (IT249 of the safety regulation. It aims to limit the risks of fire spreading by facades to upper levels. This facility involves a wood crib fire in the lower compartment of a full scale two levels high structure. Flames are coming outside from the compartment through windows openings and develop in front of the facade. Computational fluids dynamics simulations are carried out with the FDS code (Fire Dynamics Simulator for two full-scale experiments performed by Efectis France laboratory. The first objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of numerical model to reproduce quantitative results in terms of gas temperatures and heat flux on the tested facade for further evaluation of fire performances of an insulation solution. When experimental results are compared with numerical calculations, good agreement is found out for every quantities and each test. The proposed models for wood cribs and geometry give correct thermal loads and flames shape near the tested facade.

Chapter 6: Fire damage of wood structures

Science.gov (United States)

B. Kukay; R.H. White; F. Woeste

2012-01-01

Depending on the severity, fire damage can compromise the structural integrity of wood structures such as buildings or residences. Fire damage of wood structures can incorporate several models that address (1) the type, cause, and spread of the fire, (2) the thermal gradients and fire-resistance ratings, and (3) the residual load capacity (Figure 6.1). If there is a...

Forecasting wildland fire behavior using high-resolution large-eddy simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Munoz-Esparza, D.; Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Anderson, A.; DeCastro, A.; Brown, B.

2017-12-01

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. To this end, the state of Colorado is funding the development of the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS). The system is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enhanced with a fire behavior module (WRF-Fire). Realistic representation of wildland fire behavior requires explicit representation of small scale weather phenomena to properly account for coupled atmosphere-wildfire interactions. Moreover, transport and dispersion of biomass burning emissions from wildfires is controlled by turbulent processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, which are difficult to parameterize and typically lead to large errors when simplified source estimation and injection height methods are used. Therefore, we utilize turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations at a resolution of 111 m to forecast fire spread and smoke distribution using a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model. This presentation will describe our improvements to the level-set based fire-spread algorithm in WRF-Fire and an evaluation of the operational system using 12 wildfire events that occurred in Colorado in 2016, as well as other historical fires. In addition, the benefits of explicit representation of turbulence for smoke transport and dispersion will be demonstrated.

Fire safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keski-Rahkonen, O.; Bjoerkman, J.; Hostikka, S.; Mangs, J.; Huhtanen, R.; Palmen, H.; Salminen, A.; Turtola, A.

1998-01-01

According to experience and probabilistic risk assessments, fires present a significant hazard in a nuclear power plant. Fires may be initial events for accidents or affect safety systems planned to prevent accidents and to mitigate their consequences. The project consists of theoretical work, experiments and simulations aiming to increase the fire safety at nuclear power plants. The project has four target areas: (1) to produce validated models for numerical simulation programmes, (2) to produce new information on the behavior of equipment in case of fire, (3) to study applicability of new active fire protecting systems in nuclear power plants, and (4) to obtain quantitative knowledge of ignitions induced by important electric devices in nuclear power plants. These topics have been solved mainly experimentally, but modelling at different level is used to interpret experimental data, and to allow easy generalisation and engineering use of the obtained data. Numerical fire simulation has concentrated in comparison of CFD modelling of room fires, and fire spreading on cables on experimental data. So far the success has been good to fair. A simple analytical and numerical model has been developed for fire effluents spreading beyond the room of origin in mechanically strongly ventilated compartments. For behaviour of equipment in fire several full scale and scaled down calorimetric experiments were carried out on electronic cabinets, as well as on horizontal and vertical cable trays. These were carried out to supply material for CFD numerical simulation code validation. Several analytical models were developed and validated against obtained experimental results to allow quick calculations for PSA estimates as well as inter- and extrapolations to slightly different objects. Response times of different commercial fire detectors were determined for different types of smoke, especially emanating from smoldering and flaming cables to facilitate selection of proper detector

Large, high-intensity fire events in Southern California shrublands: Debunking the fine-grain age patch model

Science.gov (United States)

Keeley, J.E.; Zedler, P.H.

2009-01-01

fuels. Results from the Behave Plus fire model with a custom fuel module for young chaparral shows that there is sufficient dead fuel to spread fire even under relatively little winds. Empirical studies of fuel ages burned in recent fires illustrate that young fuels often comprise a major portion of burned vegetation, and there is no difference between evergreen chaparral and semi-deciduous sage scrub. It has also been argued that the present-day fire size distribution in northern Baja California is a model of the historical patterns that were present on southern California landscapes. Applying this model with historical fire frequencies shows that the Baja model is inadequate to maintain these fire-prone ecosystems and further demonstrates that fire managers in southern California are not likely to learn much from studying modern Baja California fire regimes. Further supporting this conclusion are theoretical cellular automata models of fire spread, which show that, even in systems with age dependent flammability, landscapes evolve toward a complex age mosaic with a plausible age structure only when there is a severe stopping rule that constrains fire size, and only if ignitions are saturating. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling the release, spreading, and burning of LNG, LPG, and gasoline on water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, David W.; Cornwell, John B.

2007-01-01

Current interest in the shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has renewed the debate about the safety of shipping large volumes of flammable fuels. The size of a spreading pool following a release of LNG from an LNG tank ship has been the subject of numerous papers and studies dating back to the mid-1970s. Several papers have presented idealized views of how the LNG would be released and spread across a quiescent water surface. There is a considerable amount of publicly available material describing these idealized releases, but little discussion of how other flammable fuels would behave if released from similar sized ships. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the models currently available from the United States Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) can be used to simulate the release, spreading, vaporization, and pool fire impacts for materials other than LNG, and if so, identify which material-specific parameters are required. The review of the basic equations and principles in FERC's LNG release, spreading, and burning models did not reveal a critical fault that would prevent their use in evaluating the consequences of other flammable fluid releases. With the correct physical data, the models can be used with the same level of confidence for materials such as LPG and gasoline as they are for LNG

A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain

2011-01-01

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...

Three-dimensional tracking for efficient fire fighting in complex situations

Science.gov (United States)

Akhloufi, Moulay; Rossi, Lucile

2009-05-01

Each year, hundred millions hectares of forests burn causing human and economic losses. For efficient fire fighting, the personnel in the ground need tools permitting the prediction of fire front propagation. In this work, we present a new technique for automatically tracking fire spread in three-dimensional space. The proposed approach uses a stereo system to extract a 3D shape from fire images. A new segmentation technique is proposed and permits the extraction of fire regions in complex unstructured scenes. It works in the visible spectrum and combines information extracted from YUV and RGB color spaces. Unlike other techniques, our algorithm does not require previous knowledge about the scene. The resulting fire regions are classified into different homogenous zones using clustering techniques. Contours are then extracted and a feature detection algorithm is used to detect interest points like local maxima and corners. Extracted points from stereo images are then used to compute the 3D shape of the fire front. The resulting data permits to build the fire volume. The final model is used to compute important spatial and temporal fire characteristics like: spread dynamics, local orientation, heading direction, etc. Tests conducted on the ground show the efficiency of the proposed scheme. This scheme is being integrated with a fire spread mathematical model in order to predict and anticipate the fire behaviour during fire fighting. Also of interest to fire-fighters, is the proposed automatic segmentation technique that can be used in early detection of fire in complex scenes.

Gossip spread in social network Models

Science.gov (United States)

Johansson, Tobias

2017-04-01

Gossip almost inevitably arises in real social networks. In this article we investigate the relationship between the number of friends of a person and limits on how far gossip about that person can spread in the network. How far gossip travels in a network depends on two sets of factors: (a) factors determining gossip transmission from one person to the next and (b) factors determining network topology. For a simple model where gossip is spread among people who know the victim it is known that a standard scale-free network model produces a non-monotonic relationship between number of friends and expected relative spread of gossip, a pattern that is also observed in real networks (Lind et al., 2007). Here, we study gossip spread in two social network models (Toivonen et al., 2006; Vázquez, 2003) by exploring the parameter space of both models and fitting them to a real Facebook data set. Both models can produce the non-monotonic relationship of real networks more accurately than a standard scale-free model while also exhibiting more realistic variability in gossip spread. Of the two models, the one given in Vázquez (2003) best captures both the expected values and variability of gossip spread.

[Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

2015-07-01

The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

Exploring Early Angiosperm Fire Feedbacks using Coupled Experiments and Modelling Approaches to Estimate Cretaceous Palaeofire Behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Belcher, Claire; Hudpsith, Victoria

2016-04-01

Using the fossil record we are typically limited to exploring linkages between palaeoecological changes and palaeofire activity by assessing the abundance of charcoals preserved in sediments. However, it is the behaviour of fires that primarily governs their ecological effects. Therefore, the ability to estimate variations in aspects of palaeofire behaviour such as palaeofire intensity and rate of spread would be of key benefit toward understanding the coupled evolutionary history of ecosystems and fire. The Cretaceous Period saw major diversification in land plants. Previously, conifers (gymnosperms) and ferns (pteridophytes) dominated Earth's ecosystems until flowering plants (angiosperms) appear in the fossil record of the Early Cretaceous (~135Ma). We have created surface fire behaviour estimates for a variety of angiosperm invasion scenarios and explored the influence of Cretaceous superambient atmospheric oxygen levels on the fire behaviour occurring in these new Cretaceous ecosystems. These estimates are then used to explore the hypothesis that the early spread of the angiosperms was promoted by the novel fire regimes that they created. In order to achieve this we tested the flammability of Mesozoic analogue fuel types in controlled laboratory experiments using an iCone calorimeter, which measured the ignitability as well as the effective heat of combustion of the fuels. We then used the BehavePlus fire behaviour modelling system to scale up our laboratory results to the ecosystem scale. Our results suggest that fire-angiosperm feedbacks may have occurred in two phases: The first phase being a result of weedy angiosperms providing an additional easily ignitable fuel that enhanced both the seasonality and frequency of surface fires. In the second phase, the addition of shrubby understory fuels likely expanded the number of ecosystems experiencing more intense surface fires, resulting in enhanced mortality and suppressed post-fire recruitment of gymnosperms

Development at the wildland-urban interface and the mitigation of forest-fire risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Spyratos, Vassilis; Bourgeron, Patrick S; Ghil, Michael

2007-09-04

This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.

A network model for Ebola spreading.

Science.gov (United States)

Rizzo, Alessandro; Pedalino, Biagio; Porfiri, Maurizio

2016-04-07

The availability of accurate models for the spreading of infectious diseases has opened a new era in management and containment of epidemics. Models are extensively used to plan for and execute vaccination campaigns, to evaluate the risk of international spreadings and the feasibility of travel bans, and to inform prophylaxis campaigns. Even when no specific therapeutical protocol is available, as for the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), models of epidemic spreading can provide useful insight to steer interventions in the field and to forecast the trend of the epidemic. Here, we propose a novel mathematical model to describe EVD spreading based on activity driven networks (ADNs). Our approach overcomes the simplifying assumption of homogeneous mixing, which is central to most of the mathematically tractable models of EVD spreading. In our ADN-based model, each individual is not bound to contact every other, and its network of contacts varies in time as a function of an activity potential. Our model contemplates the possibility of non-ideal and time-varying intervention policies, which are critical to accurately describe EVD spreading in afflicted countries. The model is calibrated from field data of the 2014 April-to-December spreading in Liberia. We use the model as a predictive tool, to emulate the dynamics of EVD in Liberia and offer a one-year projection, until December 2015. Our predictions agree with the current vision expressed by professionals in the field, who consider EVD in Liberia at its final stage. The model is also used to perform a what-if analysis to assess the efficacy of timely intervention policies. In particular, we show that an earlier application of the same intervention policy would have greatly reduced the number of EVD cases, the duration of the outbreak, and the infrastructures needed for the implementation of the intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deterministic ripple-spreading model for complex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Hines, Evor L; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a deterministic complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon. The motivations and main advantages of the model are the following: (i) The establishment of many real-world networks is a dynamic process, where it is often observed that the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes, and then largely determines the final network topology. Obviously, this dynamic process involves many spatial and temporal factors. By simulating the natural ripple-spreading process, this paper reports a very natural way to set up a spatial and temporal model for such complex networks. (ii) Existing relevant network models are all stochastic models, i.e., with a given input, they cannot output a unique topology. Differently, the proposed ripple-spreading model can uniquely determine the final network topology, and at the same time, the stochastic feature of complex networks is captured by randomly initializing ripple-spreading related parameters. (iii) The proposed model can use an easily manageable number of ripple-spreading related parameters to precisely describe a network topology, which is more memory efficient when compared with traditional adjacency matrix or similar memory-expensive data structures. (iv) The ripple-spreading model has a very good potential for both extensions and applications.

Fire Scenarios in Spain: A Territorial Approach to Proactive Fire Management in the Context of Global Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Montiel Molina

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Humans and fire form a coupled and co-evolving natural-human system in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. In this context, recent trends in landscape change, such as urban sprawl or the abandoning of agricultural and forest land management in line with new models of economic development and lifestyles, are leading to new fire scenarios. A fire scenario refers to the contextual factors of a fire regime, i.e., the environmental, socio-economic and policy drivers of wildfire initiation and propagation on different spatial and temporal scales. This is basically a landscape concept linking territorial dynamics (related to ecosystem evolution and settlement patterns with a fire regime (ignition causes; spread patterns; fire frequency, severity, extent and seasonality. The aim of this article is to identify and characterize these land-based fire scenarios in Spain on a national and regional scale, using a GIS-based methodology to perform a spatial analysis of the area attributes of homogenous fire spread patterns. To do this, the main variables considered are: land use/land cover, fuel load and recent fire history. The final objective is to reduce territorial vulnerability to forest wildfires and facilitate the adaptation of fire policies and land management systems to current challenges of preparedness and uncertainty management.

Targeting Forest Management through Fire and Erosion Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.

2013-04-01

Forests deliver a number of ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing and quantity of runoff can be altered, and the quality can be severely degraded. A modeling study for about 1500 km2 in the Upper Mokelumne River Watershed in California was conducted to determine the risk of wildfire and the associated potential sediment delivery should a wildfire occur, and to calculate the potential reduction in sediment delivery that might result from fuel reduction treatments. The first step was to predict wildfire severity and probability of occurrence under current vegetation conditions with FlamMap fire prediction tool. FlamMap uses current vegetation, topography, and wind characteristics to predict the speed, flame length, and direction of a simulated flame front for each 30-m pixel. As the first step in the erosion modeling, a geospatial interface for the WEPP model (GeoWEPP) was used to delineate approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons for the study area. The flame length values from FlamMap were then aggregated for each hillslope polygon to yield a predicted fire intensity. Fire intensity and pre-fire vegetation conditions were used to estimate fire severity (either unburned, low, moderate or high). The fire severity was combined with soil properties from the STATSGO database to build the vegetation and soil files needed to run WEPP for each polygon. Eight different stochastic climates were generated to account for the weather variability within the basin. A modified batching version of GeoWEPP was used to predict the first-year post-fire sediment yield from each hillslope and subwatershed. Estimated sediment yields ranged from 0 to more than 100 Mg/ha, and were typical of observed values. The polygons that generated the greatest amount of sediment or that were critical for reducing fire spread were identified, and these were "treated" by reducing the amount of fuel available for a wildfire. The erosion associated with

Cold Climate Structural Fire Danger Rating System?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria-Monika Metallinou

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Worldwide, fires kill 300,000 people every year. The fire season is usually recognized to be in the warmer periods of the year. Recent research has, however, demonstrated that the colder season also has major challenges regarding severe fires, especially in inhabited (heated wood-based structures in cold-climate areas. Knowledge about the effect of dry cellulose-based materials on fire development, indoor and outdoor, is a motivation for monitoring possible changes in potential fire behavior and associated fire risk. The effect of wind in spreading fires to neighboring structures points towards using weather forecasts as information on potential fire spread behavior. As modern weather forecasts include temperature and relative humidity predictions, there may already be sufficient information available to develop a structural fire danger rating system. Such a system may include the following steps: (1 Record weather forecasts and actual temperature and relative humidity inside and outside selected structures; (2 Develop a meteorology-data-based model to predict indoor relative humidity levels; (3 Perform controlled drying chamber experiments involving typical hygroscopic fire fuel; (4 Compare the results to the recorded values in selected structures; and (5 Develop the risk model involving the results from drying chamber experiments, weather forecasts, and separation between structures. Knowledge about the structures at risk and their use is also important. The benefits of an automated fire danger rating system would be that the society can better plan for potentially severe cold-climate fires and thereby limit the negative impacts of such fires.

Simulation of a Large Wildfire in a Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Baptiste Filippi

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The Aullene fire devastated more than 3000 ha of Mediterranean maquis and pine forest in July 2009. The simulation of combustion processes, as well as atmospheric dynamics represents a challenge for such scenarios because of the various involved scales, from the scale of the individual flames to the larger regional scale. A coupled approach between the Meso-NH (Meso-scale Non-Hydrostatic atmospheric model running in LES (Large Eddy Simulation mode and the ForeFire fire spread model is proposed for predicting fine- to large-scale effects of this extreme wildfire, showing that such simulation is possible in a reasonable time using current supercomputers. The coupling involves the surface wind to drive the fire, while heat from combustion and water vapor fluxes are injected into the atmosphere at each atmospheric time step. To be representative of the phenomenon, a sub-meter resolution was used for the simulation of the fire front, while atmospheric simulations were performed with nested grids from 2400-m to 50-m resolution. Simulations were run with or without feedback from the fire to the atmospheric model, or without coupling from the atmosphere to the fire. In the two-way mode, the burnt area was reproduced with a good degree of realism at the local scale, where an acceleration in the valley wind and over sloping terrain pushed the fire line to locations in accordance with fire passing point observations. At the regional scale, the simulated fire plume compares well with the satellite image. The study explores the strong fire-atmosphere interactions leading to intense convective updrafts extending above the boundary layer, significant downdrafts behind the fire line in the upper plume, and horizontal wind speeds feeding strong inflow into the base of the convective updrafts. The fire-induced dynamics is induced by strong near-surface sensible heat fluxes reaching maximum values of 240 kW m − 2 . The dynamical production of turbulent kinetic

Prevention of cable fires in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murota, George; Yajima, Kazuo

1979-01-01

Nuclear power generation is indispensable to secure required electric power, therefore double or triple safety measures are necessary to prevent serious accidents absolutely. As for the countermeasures to cable fires, interest grew rapidly with the fire in Browns Ferry Power Station in USA in 1975 as the turning point, because multi-strand grouped cables caused to promote the spread of fire. In Japan, also the fire prevention measures for wires and cables were more strengthened, and the measures for preventing the spread of cable fires with the agent preventing the spread of fires have occupied the important position. When multi-strand cables are ignited by some cause, the fire spreads with very large combustion force along wirings to other rooms and installations, and electric systems are broken down. The harmful corrosive gas generated from the burning coating materials of cables diffuses very quickly. In nuclear power stations, the cables which are very hard to burn are adopted, fire prevention sections are established positively, the fire-resisting capability of fire prevention barriers is reviewed, and fire-resisting and smoke-preventing treatments are applied to the parts where cables penetrate walls, floors or ceilings. The paint and the sealing material which prevent the spread of fires are introduced. (Kako, I.)

Default Spread dan Term Spread sebagai Variabel Proxy Siklus Bisnis pada Model Fama-French

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edwin Hendra

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This research aims to apply the Fama-French models and test the effect of alternative variable of bond yield spread, default spread (RBBB – RAAA and RAAA – RF, and the term spread (RSUN10-RSUN1, as proxy variables of the business cycle, in IDX stock data during 2005-2010. Four types of asset pricing models tested are Sharpe-Lintner CAPM, Fama-French models, Hwang et al.model, and hybrid model. The results showed that the size effect and value effect has an impact on excess stock returns. Slopes of market beta, SMB, and HML are more sensitive to stock big size and high B / M. Default spreads and term spreads in Hwang et al. model can explain the value effect, and weakly explain the size effect, meanwhile the power of explanation disappeared on Hybrid models. Based on the assessment adjusted R2 and the frequency of rejection of non-zero alpha, is found that the hybrid model is the most suitable model.  

Safety study of fire protection for nuclear fuel cycle facility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-08-15

Based on the investigation of fire protection standards for domestic and foreign nuclear facilities, the fire protection guideline for nuclear fuel cycle facility has been completed. In 2012, trial operation is started by private company using the guideline. In addition, the acquisition of fire evaluation data for a components (electric cable) targeted for spread of fire and the evaluation model of fire source were continued for the fire hazard analysis (FHA). (author)

Safety study of fire protection for nuclear fuel cycle facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

Based on the investigation of fire protection standards for domestic and foreign nuclear facilities, the fire protection guideline for nuclear fuel cycle facility has been completed. In 2012, trial operation is started by private company using the guideline. In addition, the acquisition of fire evaluation data for a components (electric cable) targeted for spread of fire and the evaluation model of fire source were continued for the fire hazard analysis (FHA). (author)

FIRE CHARACTERISTICS FOR ADVANCED MODELLING OF FIRES

OpenAIRE

Otto Dvořák

2016-01-01

This paper summarizes the material and fire properties of solid flammable/combustible materials /substances /products, which are used as inputs for the computer numerical fire models. At the same time it gives the test standards for their determination.

Developing custom fire behavior fuel models from ecologically complex fuel structures for upper Atlantic Coastal Plain forests.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parresol, Bernard, R.; Scott, Joe, H.; Andreu, Anne; Prichard, Susan; Kurth, Laurie

2012-01-01

Currently geospatial fire behavior analyses are performed with an array of fire behavior modeling systems such as FARSITE, FlamMap, and the Large Fire Simulation System. These systems currently require standard or customized surface fire behavior fuel models as inputs that are often assigned through remote sensing information. The ability to handle hundreds or thousands of measured surface fuelbeds representing the fine scale variation in fire behavior on the landscape is constrained in terms of creating compatible custom fire behavior fuel models. In this study, we demonstrate an objective method for taking ecologically complex fuelbeds from inventory observations and converting those into a set of custom fuel models that can be mapped to the original landscape. We use an original set of 629 fuel inventory plots measured on an 80,000 ha contiguous landscape in the upper Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States. From models linking stand conditions to component fuel loads, we impute fuelbeds for over 6000 stands. These imputed fuelbeds were then converted to fire behavior parameters under extreme fuel moisture and wind conditions (97th percentile) using the fuel characteristic classification system (FCCS) to estimate surface fire rate of spread, surface fire flame length, shrub layer reaction intensity (heat load), non-woody layer reaction intensity, woody layer reaction intensity, and litter-lichen-moss layer reaction intensity. We performed hierarchical cluster analysis of the stands based on the values of the fire behavior parameters. The resulting 7 clusters were the basis for the development of 7 custom fire behavior fuel models from the cluster centroids that were calibrated against the FCCS point data for wind and fuel moisture. The latter process resulted in calibration against flame length as it was difficult to obtain a simultaneous calibration against both rate of spread and flame length. The clusters based on FCCS fire behavior

Litter Species Composition and Topographic Effects on Fuels and Modeled Fire Behavior in an Oak-Hickory Forest in the Eastern USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Dickinson, Matthew B; Hutchinson, Todd F; Dietenberger, Mark; Matt, Frederick; Peters, Matthew P

2016-01-01

Mesophytic species (esp. Acer rubrum) are increasingly replacing oaks (Quercus spp.) in fire-suppressed, deciduous oak-hickory forests of the eastern US. A pivotal hypothesis is that fuel beds derived from mesophytic litter are less likely than beds derived from oak litter to carry a fire and, if they do, are more likely to burn at lower intensities. Species effects, however, are confounded by topographic gradients that affect overstory composition and fuel bed decomposition. To examine the separate and combined effects of litter species composition and topography on surface fuel beds, we conducted a common garden experiment in oak-hickory forests of the Ohio Hills. Each common garden included beds composed of mostly oak and mostly maple litter, representative of oak- and maple-dominated stands, respectively, and a mixture of the two. Beds were replenished each fall for four years. Common gardens (N = 16) were established at four topographic positions (ridges, benches on south- and northeast-facing slopes, and stream terraces) at each of four sites. Litter source and topographic position had largely independent effects on fuel beds and modeled fire dynamics after four years of development. Loading (kg m-2) of the upper litter layer (L), the layer that primarily supports flaming spread, was least in more mesic landscape positions and for maple beds, implying greater decomposition rates for those situations. Bulk density in the L layer (kg m-3) was least for oak beds which, along with higher loading, would promote fire spread and fireline intensity. Loading and bulk density of the combined fermentation and humic (FH) layers were least on stream terrace positions but were not related to species. Litter- and FH-layer moistures during a 5-day dry-down period after a rain event were affected by time and topographic effects while litter source effects were not evident. Characteristics of flaming combustion determined with a cone calorimeter pointed to greater fireline

FIRE CHARACTERISTICS FOR ADVANCED MODELLING OF FIRES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Otto Dvořák

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This paper summarizes the material and fire properties of solid flammable/combustible materials /substances /products, which are used as inputs for the computer numerical fire models. At the same time it gives the test standards for their determination.

Fire Propagation Tracing Model in the Explicit Treatment of Events of Fire PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Jun Eon

2010-01-01

The fire propagation model in a fire PSA has not been considered analytically instead a simplified analyst's intuition was used to consider the fire propagation path. A fire propagation equation is developed to trace all the propagation paths in the fire area in which a zone is defined to identify various fire ignition sources. An initiation of fire is assumed to take place in a zone. Then, the propagation is modeled with a Boolean equation. Since the explicit fire PSA modeling requires an exclusive event set to sum up the..., exclusive event sets are derived from the fire propagation equation. As an example, we show the exclusive set for a 2x3 rectangular fire zone. Also, the applicability the developed fire equation is discussed when the number of zone increases including the limitation of the explicit fire PSA modeling method

Sensitivity Analysis on Fire Modeling of Main Control Board Fire Using Fire Dynamics Simulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon

2015-01-01

In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number for fire initiation places. Hanul Unit 3 NPP was selected as a reference plant for this study. In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number of fire initiation places. A main control board (MCB) fire can cause a forced main control room (MCR) abandonment of the operators as well as the function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel independent from the MCR. When the fire modeling for an electrical cabinet such as an MCB was performed, its many input parameters can affect the fire simulation results. This study results showed that the decrease in the height of fire ignition place and the use of single fire ignition place in fire modeling for the propagating fire shortened MCR abandonment time

Sensitivity Analysis on Fire Modeling of Main Control Board Fire Using Fire Dynamics Simulator

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number for fire initiation places. Hanul Unit 3 NPP was selected as a reference plant for this study. In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number of fire initiation places. A main control board (MCB) fire can cause a forced main control room (MCR) abandonment of the operators as well as the function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel independent from the MCR. When the fire modeling for an electrical cabinet such as an MCB was performed, its many input parameters can affect the fire simulation results. This study results showed that the decrease in the height of fire ignition place and the use of single fire ignition place in fire modeling for the propagating fire shortened MCR abandonment time.

Charts for interpreting wildland fire behavior characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Patricia L. Andrews; Richard C. Rothermel

1982-01-01

The fire characteristics chart is proposed as a graphical method ofpresenting two primary characteristics of fire behavior – spread rate and intensity. Its primary use is communicating and interpreting either site-specific predictions of fire behavior or National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indexes and components. Rate of spread, heat per unit area, flame length...

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Breininger, David R.; Foster, Tammy E.; Carter, Geoffrey M.; Duncan, Brean W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Lyon, James E.

2017-01-01

The combined effects of repeated fires, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire and not fire history. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells that represented potential territories because frequent fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities between states varied annually as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges, precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presenceabsence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the maximum fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Measuring territory quality states and environmental covariates each year combined with multistate modeling provided a useful empirical approach to quantify the effects of repeated fire in combinations with environmental variables on transition probabilities that drive management strategies and ecosystem change.

Wildland fire as a self-regulating mechanism: the role of previous burns and weather in limiting fire progression.

Science.gov (United States)

Parks, Sean A; Holsinger, Lisa M; Miller, Carol; Nelson, Cara R

2015-09-01

Theory suggests that natural fire regimes can result in landscapes that are both self-regulating and resilient to fire. For example, because fires consume fuel, they may create barriers to the spread of future fires, thereby regulating fire size. Top-down controls such as weather, however, can weaken this effect. While empirical examples demonstrating this pattern-process feedback between vegetation and fire exist, they have been geographically limited or did not consider the influence of time between fires and weather. The availability of remotely sensed data identifying fire activity over the last four decades provides an opportunity to explicitly quantify-the ability of wildland fire to limit the progression of subsequent fire. Furthermore, advances in fire progression mapping now allow an evaluation of how daily weather as a top-down control modifies this effect. In this study, we evaluated the ability of wildland fire to create barriers that limit the spread of subsequent fire along a gradient representing time between fires in four large study areas in the western United States. Using fire progression maps in conjunction with weather station data, we also evaluated the influence of daily weather. Results indicate that wildland fire does limit subsequent fire spread in all four study areas, but this effect decays over time; wildland fire no longer limits subsequent fire spread 6-18 years after fire, depending on the study area. We also found that the ability of fire to regulate, subsequent fire progression was substantially reduced under extreme conditions compared to moderate weather conditions in all four study areas. This study increases understanding of the spatial feedbacks that can lead to self-regulating landscapes as well as the effects of top-down controls, such as weather, on these feedbacks. Our results will be useful to managers who seek to restore natural fire regimes or to exploit recent burns when managing fire.

Underground fires in oil shale mines: special traits of their spreading, extinguishing and liquidating of consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parakhonsky, E.

1995-01-01

Danger of catching fire in oil shale underground mines has considerably increased lately because of essential increase in mechanization level and frequent violation of fire-safety regulations. The largest underground fire in Estonia took place in the most mechanized mine 'Estonia' in the end of 1988 and lasted 81 days. The fire started in one of the conveyor drifts where two belt-conveyors with rubber-rope belts and a fire pipeline were installed. At the start of the fire and beginning of extinguishing work this pipeline contained no water. Driving heads of these conveyors were installed with automatic extinguishing equipment and with different primary means against fire. When the first group of the Johvi military mine-rescue squad reached the mine they established that the conveyor drift, pillars and a part of rail drift between them were caught by fire. The conveyor belt, oil shale and feeds of conveyor drives were burning. The flame had propagated about 350 metres along the rail and conveyor drifts but the smoke had spread 4 kilometres already. Air temperature near the burning area was about 40-60 deg C, rocks from the roof supported by pillars had crashed down. The mine air was polluted by combustion products. The fire caused a noticeable pollution of mine and surface waters with phenols formed at oil shale combustion. Their limit concentration was exceeded for more than 400 times. To decrease this number, an intensive saturation of waters with atmosphere air was started. For this purpose special dams were constructed on water-diversion ditches ensuring a 0.5-0.7 m difference in water levels. Nevertheless, the phenol concentration in Rannapungerya River and Lake Peipsi still exceeded the normal level 5-6 times. However, the actual maximum concentration of phenols was considerably lower than the lethal doses for fish and other water organisms. Their mass extinction in the river or in the lake was observed neither during nor after the fire. One may conclude the

A Complex Network Theory Approach for the Spatial Distribution of Fire Breaks in Heterogeneous Forest Landscapes for the Control of Wildland Fires.

Science.gov (United States)

Russo, Lucia; Russo, Paola; Siettos, Constantinos I

2016-01-01

Based on complex network theory, we propose a computational methodology which addresses the spatial distribution of fuel breaks for the inhibition of the spread of wildland fires on heterogeneous landscapes. This is a two-level approach where the dynamics of fire spread are modeled as a random Markov field process on a directed network whose edge weights are determined by a Cellular Automata model that integrates detailed GIS, landscape and meteorological data. Within this framework, the spatial distribution of fuel breaks is reduced to the problem of finding network nodes (small land patches) which favour fire propagation. Here, this is accomplished by exploiting network centrality statistics. We illustrate the proposed approach through (a) an artificial forest of randomly distributed density of vegetation, and (b) a real-world case concerning the island of Rhodes in Greece whose major part of its forest was burned in 2008. Simulation results show that the proposed methodology outperforms the benchmark/conventional policy of fuel reduction as this can be realized by selective harvesting and/or prescribed burning based on the density and flammability of vegetation. Interestingly, our approach reveals that patches with sparse density of vegetation may act as hubs for the spread of the fire.

A Complex Network Theory Approach for the Spatial Distribution of Fire Breaks in Heterogeneous Forest Landscapes for the Control of Wildland Fires.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucia Russo

Full Text Available Based on complex network theory, we propose a computational methodology which addresses the spatial distribution of fuel breaks for the inhibition of the spread of wildland fires on heterogeneous landscapes. This is a two-level approach where the dynamics of fire spread are modeled as a random Markov field process on a directed network whose edge weights are determined by a Cellular Automata model that integrates detailed GIS, landscape and meteorological data. Within this framework, the spatial distribution of fuel breaks is reduced to the problem of finding network nodes (small land patches which favour fire propagation. Here, this is accomplished by exploiting network centrality statistics. We illustrate the proposed approach through (a an artificial forest of randomly distributed density of vegetation, and (b a real-world case concerning the island of Rhodes in Greece whose major part of its forest was burned in 2008. Simulation results show that the proposed methodology outperforms the benchmark/conventional policy of fuel reduction as this can be realized by selective harvesting and/or prescribed burning based on the density and flammability of vegetation. Interestingly, our approach reveals that patches with sparse density of vegetation may act as hubs for the spread of the fire.

Fire modeling of the Heiss Dampf Reaktor containment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicolette, V.F.; Yang, K.T.

1995-09-01

This report summarizes Sandia National Laboratories' participation in the fire modeling activities for the German Heiss Dampf Reaktor (HDR) containment building, under the sponsorship of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The purpose of this report is twofold: (1) to summarize Sandia's participation in the HDR fire modeling efforts and (2) to summarize the results of the international fire modeling community involved in modeling the HDR fire tests. Additional comments, on the state of fire modeling and trends in the international fire modeling community are also included. It is noted that, although the trend internationally in fire modeling is toward the development of the more complex fire field models, each type of fire model has something to contribute to the understanding of fires in nuclear power plants

Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

Science.gov (United States)

Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

1964-01-01

Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

2008-12-01

Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from

Optimizing prescribed fire allocation for managing fire risk in central Catalonia.

Science.gov (United States)

Alcasena, Fermín J; Ager, Alan A; Salis, Michele; Day, Michelle A; Vega-Garcia, Cristina

2018-04-15

We used spatial optimization to allocate and prioritize prescribed fire treatments in the fire-prone Bages County, central Catalonia (northeastern Spain). The goal of this study was to identify suitable strategic locations on forest lands for fuel treatments in order to: 1) disrupt major fire movements, 2) reduce ember emissions, and 3) reduce the likelihood of large fires burning into residential communities. We first modeled fire spread, hazard and exposure metrics under historical extreme fire weather conditions, including node influence grid for surface fire pathways, crown fraction burned and fire transmission to residential structures. Then, we performed an optimization analysis on individual planning areas to identify production possibility frontiers for addressing fire exposure and explore alternative prescribed fire treatment configurations. The results revealed strong trade-offs among different fire exposure metrics, showed treatment mosaics that optimize the allocation of prescribed fire, and identified specific opportunities to achieve multiple objectives. Our methods can contribute to improving the efficiency of prescribed fire treatment investments and wildfire management programs aimed at creating fire resilient ecosystems, facilitating safe and efficient fire suppression, and safeguarding rural communities from catastrophic wildfires. The analysis framework can be used to optimally allocate prescribed fire in other fire-prone areas within the Mediterranean region and elsewhere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Firing patterns in the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model.

Science.gov (United States)

Naud, Richard; Marcille, Nicolas; Clopath, Claudia; Gerstner, Wulfram

2008-11-01

For simulations of large spiking neuron networks, an accurate, simple and versatile single-neuron modeling framework is required. Here we explore the versatility of a simple two-equation model: the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neuron. We show that this model generates multiple firing patterns depending on the choice of parameter values, and present a phase diagram describing the transition from one firing type to another. We give an analytical criterion to distinguish between continuous adaption, initial bursting, regular bursting and two types of tonic spiking. Also, we report that the deterministic model is capable of producing irregular spiking when stimulated with constant current, indicating low-dimensional chaos. Lastly, the simple model is fitted to real experiments of cortical neurons under step current stimulation. The results provide support for the suitability of simple models such as the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neuron for large network simulations.

Contribution of human, climate and biophysical drivers to the spatial distribution of wildfires in a French Mediterranean area: where do wildfires start and spread?

Science.gov (United States)

Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent; Moebius, Flavia

2013-04-01

Understanding the contribution of biophysical and human drivers to the spatial distribution of fires at regional scale has many ecological and economical implications in a context of on-going global changes. However these fire drivers often interact in complex ways, such that disentangling and assessing the relative contribution of human vs. biophysical factors remains a major challenge. Indeed, the identification of biophysical conditions that promote fires are confused by the inherent stochasticity in fire occurrences and fire spread on the one hand and, by the influence of human factors -through both fire ignition and suppression - on the other. Moreover, different factors may drive fire ignition and fire spread, in such a way that the areas with the highest density of ignitions may not coincide with those where large fires occur. In the present study, we investigated the drivers of fires ignition and spread in a Mediterranean area of southern France. We used a 17 years fire database (the PROMETHEE database from 1989-2006) combined with a set of 8 explanatory variables describing the spatial pattern in ignitions, vegetation and fire weather. We first isolated the weather conditions affecting the fire occurrence and their spread using a statistical model of the weather/fuel water status for each fire event.. The results of these statistical models were used to map the fire weather in terms of average number of days with suitable conditions for burning. Then, we used Boosted regression trees (BRT) models to assess the relative importance of the different variables on the distribution of wildfire with different sizes and to assess the relationship between each variables and fire occurrence and spread probabilities. We found that human activities explained up to 50 % of the spatial distribution of fire ignitions (SDI). The distribution of large fire was chiefly explained by fuel characteristics (about 40%). Surprisingly, the weather indices explained only 20 % of

Characterization of flame radiosity in shrubland fires

Science.gov (United States)

Miguel G. Cruz; Bret W. Butler; Domingos X. Viegas; Pedro Palheiro

2011-01-01

The present study is aimed at quantifying the flame radiosity vertical profile and gas temperature in moderate to high intensity spreading fires in shrubland fuels. We report on the results from 11 experimental fires conducted over a range of fire rate of spread and frontal fire intensity varying respectively between 0.04-0.35ms-1 and 468-14,973kWm-1. Flame radiosity,...

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat

Science.gov (United States)

Breininger, David R.; Foster, Tammy E.; Carter, Geoffrey M.; Duncan, Brean W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Lyon, James E.

2018-01-01

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Smouldering Subsurface Fires in the Earth System

Science.gov (United States)

Rein, Guillermo

2010-05-01

Smouldering fires, the slow, low-temperature, flameless form of combustion, are an important phenomena in the Earth system. These fires propagate slowly through organic layers of the forest ground and are responsible for 50% or more of the total biomass consumed during wildfires. Only after the 2002 study of the 1997 extreme haze event in South-East Asia, the scientific community recognised the environmental and economic threats posed by subsurface fires. This was caused by the spread of vast biomass fires in Indonesia, burning below the surface for months during the El Niño climate event. It has been calculated that these fires released between 0.81 and 2.57 Gton of carbon gases (13-40% of global emissions). Large smouldering fires are rare events at the local scale but occur regularly at a global scale. Once ignited, they are particularly difficult to extinguish despite extensive rains or fire-fighting attempts and can persist for long periods of time (months, years) spreading over very extensive areas of forest and deep into the soil. Indeed, these are the oldest continuously burning fires on Earth. Earth scientists are interested in smouldering fires because they destroy large amounts of biomass and cause greater damage to the soil ecosystem than flaming fires do. Moreover, these fires cannot be detected with current satellite remote sensing technologies causing inconsistencies between emission inventories and model predictions. Organic soils sustain smouldering fire (hummus, duff, peat and coal) which total carbon pool exceeds that of the world's forests or the atmosphere. This have important implications for climate change. Warmer temperatures at high latitudes are resulting in unprecedented permafrost thaw that is leaving large soil carbon pools exposed to fires. Because the CO2 flux from peat fires has been measured to be about 3000 times larger that the natural degradation flux, permafrost thaw is a risk for greater carbon release by fire and subsequently

Litter Species Composition and Topographic Effects on Fuels and Modeled Fire Behavior in an Oak-Hickory Forest in the Eastern USA.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew B Dickinson

Full Text Available Mesophytic species (esp. Acer rubrum are increasingly replacing oaks (Quercus spp. in fire-suppressed, deciduous oak-hickory forests of the eastern US. A pivotal hypothesis is that fuel beds derived from mesophytic litter are less likely than beds derived from oak litter to carry a fire and, if they do, are more likely to burn at lower intensities. Species effects, however, are confounded by topographic gradients that affect overstory composition and fuel bed decomposition. To examine the separate and combined effects of litter species composition and topography on surface fuel beds, we conducted a common garden experiment in oak-hickory forests of the Ohio Hills. Each common garden included beds composed of mostly oak and mostly maple litter, representative of oak- and maple-dominated stands, respectively, and a mixture of the two. Beds were replenished each fall for four years. Common gardens (N = 16 were established at four topographic positions (ridges, benches on south- and northeast-facing slopes, and stream terraces at each of four sites. Litter source and topographic position had largely independent effects on fuel beds and modeled fire dynamics after four years of development. Loading (kg m-2 of the upper litter layer (L, the layer that primarily supports flaming spread, was least in more mesic landscape positions and for maple beds, implying greater decomposition rates for those situations. Bulk density in the L layer (kg m-3 was least for oak beds which, along with higher loading, would promote fire spread and fireline intensity. Loading and bulk density of the combined fermentation and humic (FH layers were least on stream terrace positions but were not related to species. Litter- and FH-layer moistures during a 5-day dry-down period after a rain event were affected by time and topographic effects while litter source effects were not evident. Characteristics of flaming combustion determined with a cone calorimeter pointed to greater

Analysis of large urban fires

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, S.W.; Reitter, T.A.; Takata, A.N.

1984-11-01

Fires in urban areas caused by a nuclear burst are analyzed as a first step towards determining their smoke-generation chacteristics, which may have grave implications for global-scale climatic consequences. A chain of events and their component processes which would follow a nuclear attack are described. A numerical code is currently being developed to calculate ultimately the smoke production rate for a given attack scenario. Available models for most of the processes are incorporated into the code. Sample calculations of urban fire-development history performed in the code for an idealized uniform city are presented. Preliminary results indicate the importance of the wind, thermal radiation transmission, fuel distributions, and ignition thresholds on the urban fire spread characteristics. Future plans are to improve the existing models and develop new ones to characterize smoke production from large urban fires. 21 references, 18 figures

Cigarette Fires Involving Upholstered Furniture in Residences: The Role that Smokers, Smoker Behavior, and Fire Standard Compliant Cigarettes Play

Science.gov (United States)

Butry, David T.; Thomas, Douglas S.

2017-01-01

Residential structure fires pose a significant risk to life and property. A major source of these fires is the ignition of upholstered furniture by cigarettes. It has long been established that cigarettes and other lighted tobacco products could ignite upholstered furniture and were a leading cause of fire deaths in residences. In recent years, states have adopted fire standard compliant cigarettes (‘FSC cigarettes’) that are made with a wrapping paper that contains regularly spaced bands, which increases the likelihood of self-extinguishment. This paper measures the effectiveness of FSC cigarettes on the number of residential fires involving upholstered furniture, and the resulting fatalities, injuries, and extent of flame spread, while accounting for the under-reporting of fire incidents. In total, four models were estimated using fire department data from 2002 to 2011. The results provide evidence that FSC cigarettes, on average, reduced the number of residential fires by 45 %, reduced fatalities by 23 %, and extent of flame spread by 27 % in 2011. No effect on injuries was found. Within each state, effectiveness is moderated by the number of smokers and their consumption patterns. In general, FSC cigarettes are more effective in places with a large smoking population who engage in heavier smoking. There is a very limited effect on the lightest of smokers, suggesting behavioral differences between heavy and light smokers that influence fire risk. PMID:28751788

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

2016-06-01

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

Terrestrial spreading centers under Venus conditions - Evaluation of a crustal spreading model for Western Aphrodite Terra

Science.gov (United States)

Sotin, C.; Senske, D. A.; Head, J. W.; Parmentier, E. M.

1989-01-01

The model of Reid and Jackson (1981) for terrestrial spreading centers is applied to Venus conditions. On the basis of spreading rate, mantle temperature, and surface temperature, the model predicts both isostatic topography and crustal thickness. The model and Pioneer Venus altimetry and gravity data are used to test the hypothesis of Head and Crumpler (1987) that Western Aphrodite Terra is the location of crustal spreading on Venus. It is concluded that a spreading center model for Ovda Regio in Western Aphrodite Terra could account for the observed topography and line-of-sight gravity anomalies found in the Pioneer data.

Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William J Platt

Full Text Available Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature. We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009 data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009. Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with

Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.

2015-01-01

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of

The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Xianli Wang; Marc-Andre Parisien; Mike D. Flannigan; Sean A. Parks; Kerry R. Anderson; John M. Little; Steve W. Taylor

2014-01-01

Given that they can burn for weeks or months, wildfires in temperate and boreal forests may become immense (eg., 100 - 04 km2). However, during the period within which a large fire is 'active', not all days experience weather that is conducive to fire spread; indeed most of the spread occurs on a small proportion (e.g., 1 - 15 days) of not necessarily...

Study of the influence of fuel load and slope on a fire spreading across a bed of pine needles by using oxygen consumption calorimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Tihay, V.; Morandini, F.; Santoni, P. A.; Perez-Ramirez, Y.; Barboni, T.

2012-11-01

A set of experiments using a Large Scale Heat Release Rate Calorimeter was conducted to test the effects of slope and fuel load on the fire dynamics. Different parameters such as the geometry of the flame front, the rate of spread, the mass loss rate and the heat release rate were investigated. Increasing the fuel load or the slope modifies the fire behaviour. As expected, the flame length and the rate of spread increase when fuel load or slope increases. The heat release rate does not reach a quasi-steady state when the propagation takes place with a slope of 20° and a high fuel load. This is due to an increase of the length of the fire front leading to an increase of fuel consumed. These considerations have shown that the heat release can be estimated with the mass loss rate by considering the effective heat of combustion. This approach can be a good alternative to estimate accurately the fireline intensity when the measure of oxygen consumption is not possible.

Study of the influence of fuel load and slope on a fire spreading across a bed of pine needles by using oxygen consumption calorimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tihay, V; Morandini, F; Santoni, P A; Perez-Ramirez, Y; Barboni, T

2012-01-01

A set of experiments using a Large Scale Heat Release Rate Calorimeter was conducted to test the effects of slope and fuel load on the fire dynamics. Different parameters such as the geometry of the flame front, the rate of spread, the mass loss rate and the heat release rate were investigated. Increasing the fuel load or the slope modifies the fire behaviour. As expected, the flame length and the rate of spread increase when fuel load or slope increases. The heat release rate does not reach a quasi-steady state when the propagation takes place with a slope of 20° and a high fuel load. This is due to an increase of the length of the fire front leading to an increase of fuel consumed. These considerations have shown that the heat release can be estimated with the mass loss rate by considering the effective heat of combustion. This approach can be a good alternative to estimate accurately the fireline intensity when the measure of oxygen consumption is not possible.

Fire safety assessment for the fire areas of the nuclear power plant using fire model CFAST

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Jong Hoon

2005-03-01

Now the deterministic analysis results for the cable integrity is not given in case of performing the fire PSA. So it is necessary to develop the assessment methodology for the fire growth and propagation. This document is intended to analyze the peak temperature of the upper gas layer using the fire modeling code, CFAST, to evaluate the integrity of the cable located on the dominant pump rooms, and to assess the CCDP(Conditional Core Damage Probability) using the results of the cable integrity. According to the analysis results, the cable integrity of the pump rooms is maintained and CCDP is reduced about two times than the old one. Accordingly, the fire safety assessment for the dominant fire areas using the fire modeling code will capable to reduce the uncertainty and to develop a more realistic model

Leafcutter Ant Nests Inhibit Low-Intensity Fire Spread in the Understory of Transitional Forests at the Amazon's Forest-Savanna Boundary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karine S. Carvalho

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Leaf-cutter ants (Atta spp. remove leaf litter and woody debris—potential fuels—in and around their nests and foraging trails. We conducted single and three annual experimental fires to determine the effects of this leaf-cutter ant activity on the behavior of low-intensity, slow-moving fires. In a transitional forest, where the southern Amazon forest meets the Brazilian savanna, we tested whether leaf-cutter ant nests and trails (i inhibit fire spread due to a lack of fuels, and (ii, thereby, reduce the total burned area during these experimental low-intensity fires, particularly at forest edges where leaf-cutter ant abundance was higher. Fine-medium fuel mass increased with an increase in distance from ant nest, and the mean area of bare soil was greater on nests than on the forest floor. Between 60 to 90 percent of the unburned area was within 30 m of ant nests, and burned area significantly increased with increasing distance to ant nests. In addition, the number of ant nests declined with increasing distance from the forest edge, and, with exception of the first experimental fire, burned area also increased with increasing distance from the edge. The present study provides new insight to fire ecology in Amazon environments.

Computer-simulation study on fire behaviour in the ventilated cavity of ventilated façade systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giraldo María P.

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Fire spread through the façades is widely recognized as one of the fastest pathways of fire spreading in the buildings. Fire may spread through the façade in different ways depending on the type of façade system and on the elements and materials from which it is constructed. Ventilated façades are multilayer systems whose main feature is the creation of an air chamber of circulating air between the original building wall and the external cladding. The “chimney effect” in the air cavity is a mechanism that improves the façade's thermal behaviour and avoids the appearance of moisture from rain or condensation. However, in a event of fire, it may contribute to the quickest spreading of fire, representing a significant risk to the upper floors of a building. This study deals with some aspects of fire propagation through the ventilated cavity in ventilated façade systems. Also we review the provisions stipulated by the Spanish building code (Código Técnico de la Edificación, CTE [1] to avoid fire spread outside the building. The results highlight the importance of the use of proper fire barriers to ensure the compartmentalization of the ventilated cavity, as well as the use of non-combustible thermal insulation materials, among others. In addition, based on the results, it might be considered that the measures stipulated by the CTE are insufficient to limit the risks associated with this kind of façades systems. The study has been performed using field models of computational fluid-dynamics. In particular, the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS software has been used to numerically solve the mathematical integration models.

A study of flame spread in engineered cardboard fuelbeds: Part II: Scaling law approach

Science.gov (United States)

Brittany A. Adam; Nelson K. Akafuah; Mark Finney; Jason Forthofer; Kozo Saito

2013-01-01

In this second part of a two part exploration of dynamic behavior observed in wildland fires, time scales differentiating convective and radiative heat transfer is further explored. Scaling laws for the two different types of heat transfer considered: Radiation-driven fire spread, and convection-driven fire spread, which can both occur during wildland fires. A new...

2013 Annual Report: Fire Modeling Institute

Science.gov (United States)

Robin J. Innes; Faith Ann Heinsch; Kristine M. Lee

2014-01-01

The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) of the U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS), is a national and international resource for fire managers. Located within the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program at the Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory (Fire Lab) in Montana, FMI helps managers utilize fire and fuel science and technology developed throughout the...

Decision modeling for analyzing fire action outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Donald MacGregor; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

2008-01-01

A methodology for incident decomposition and reconstruction is developed based on the concept of an "event-frame model." The event-frame model characterizes a fire incident in terms of (a) environmental events that pertain to the fire and the fire context (e.g., fire behavior, weather, fuels) and (b) management events that represent responses to the fire...

[Fire behavior of ground surface fuels in Pinus koraiensis and Quercus mongolica mixed forest under no wind and zero slope condition: a prediction with extended Rothermel model].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ji-Li; Liu, Bo-Fei; Chu, Teng-Fei; Di, Xue-Ying; Jin, Sen

2012-06-01

A laboratory burning experiment was conducted to measure the fire spread speed, residual time, reaction intensity, fireline intensity, and flame length of the ground surface fuels collected from a Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) mixed stand in Maoer Mountains of Northeast China under the conditions of no wind, zero slope, and different moisture content, load, and mixture ratio of the fuels. The results measured were compared with those predicted by the extended Rothermel model to test the performance of the model, especially for the effects of two different weighting methods on the fire behavior modeling of the mixed fuels. With the prediction of the model, the mean absolute errors of the fire spread speed and reaction intensity of the fuels were 0.04 m X min(-1) and 77 kW X m(-2), their mean relative errors were 16% and 22%, while the mean absolute errors of residual time, fireline intensity and flame length were 15.5 s, 17.3 kW X m(-1), and 9.7 cm, and their mean relative errors were 55.5%, 48.7%, and 24%, respectively, indicating that the predicted values of residual time, fireline intensity, and flame length were lower than the observed ones. These errors could be regarded as the lower limits for the application of the extended Rothermel model in predicting the fire behavior of similar fuel types, and provide valuable information for using the model to predict the fire behavior under the similar field conditions. As a whole, the two different weighting methods did not show significant difference in predicting the fire behavior of the mixed fuels by extended Rothermel model. When the proportion of Korean pine fuels was lower, the predicted values of spread speed and reaction intensity obtained by surface area weighting method and those of fireline intensity and flame length obtained by load weighting method were higher; when the proportion of Korean pine needles was higher, the contrary results were obtained.

Review of UCN 5,6 Fire PSA Model based on ANS Fire PRA Standard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Joon Eon; Lee, Yoon Hwan

2006-12-01

Recently, under the de-regulation environment, nuclear industry has attempted various approaches to improve the economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). This approach uses the fire risk and performance information to manage the resources effectively and efficiently that are used in the operation of NPP. In fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation, fire PSA quality is one of the most important things. The nuclear industry and regulatory body of U.S.A have developed a measure to evaluate the quality of fire PSA. ANS (American Nuclear Society) has developed a guidance called 'ANS Fire PRA Methodology Standard'. However, in Korea, there have been no attempts to evaluate the quality of fire PSA model itself. Therefore, we cannot be sure about the quality of fire PSA whether or not the present fire PSA model can be used for the risk-informed applications such as mentioned above. We can say that the evaluation of fire PSA model quality is the basis for the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation. In this report, we have evaluated the quality of fire PSA model for Ulchin 5 and 6 units based on the ANS Fire PRA Standard. We, also, have derived what items are to be improved to upgrade the quality of fire PSA model and how it can be improved. This report can be used as the base of the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation work in Korea

Wildfire Risk Main Model

Data.gov (United States)

Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The model combines three modeled fire behavior parameters (rate of spread, flame length, crown fire potential) and one modeled ecological health measure (fire regime...

New tendencies in wildland fire simulation for understanding fire phenomena: An overview of the WFDS system capabilities in Mediterranean ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor, E.; Tarragó, D.; Planas, E.

2012-04-01

Wildfire theoretical modeling endeavors predicting fire behavior characteristics, such as the rate of spread, the flames geometry and the energy released by the fire front by applying the physics and the chemistry laws that govern fire phenomena. Its ultimate aim is to help fire managers to improve fire prevention and suppression and hence reducing damage to population and protecting ecosystems. WFDS is a 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of a fire-driven flow. It is particularly appropriate for predicting the fire behaviour burning through the wildland-urban interface, since it is able to predict the fire behaviour in the intermix of vegetative and structural fuels that comprise the wildland urban interface. This model is not suitable for operational fire management yet due to computational costs constrains, but given the fact that it is open-source and that it has a detailed description of the fuels and of the combustion and heat transfer mechanisms it is currently a suitable system for research purposes. In this paper we present the most important characteristics of the WFDS simulation tool in terms of the models implemented, the input information required and the outputs that the simulator gives useful for understanding fire phenomena. We briefly discuss its advantages and opportunities through some simulation exercises of Mediterranean ecosystems.

An empirical model of global spread-f occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singleton, D.G.

1974-09-01

A method of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density into a model of the occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is presented. The predictions of the model are compared with spread-F occurrence data obtained under sunspot maximum conditions. Good agreement is obtained for latitudes less than 70 0 geomagnetic. At higher latitudes, the inclusion of a 'blackout factor' in the model allows it to accurately represent the data and, in so doing, resolves an apparent discrepancy in the occurrence statistics at high latitudes. The blackout factor is ascribed to the effect of polar blackout on the spread-F statistics and/or the lack of a definitve incremental electron density model for irregularities at polar latitudes. Ways of isolating these effects and assessing their relative importance in the blackout factor are discussed. The model, besides providing estimates of spread-F occurrence on a worldwide basis, which will be of value in the engineering of HF and VHF communications, also furnishes a means of further checking the irregularity incremental electron density model on which it is based. (author)

Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

2011-12-01

Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of

Birth-jump processes and application to forest fire spotting.

Science.gov (United States)

Hillen, T; Greese, B; Martin, J; de Vries, G

2015-01-01

Birth-jump models are designed to describe population models for which growth and spatial spread cannot be decoupled. A birth-jump model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation. We present two different derivations of this equation, one based on a random walk approach and the other based on a two-compartmental reaction-diffusion model. In the case that the redistribution kernels are highly concentrated, we show that the integro-differential equation can be approximated by a reaction-diffusion equation, in which the proliferation rate contributes to both the diffusion term and the reaction term. We completely solve the corresponding critical domain size problem and the minimal wave speed problem. Birth-jump models can be applied in many areas in mathematical biology. We highlight an application of our results in the context of forest fire spread through spotting. We show that spotting increases the invasion speed of a forest fire front.

Modeling post-fire hydro-geomorphic recovery in the Waldo Canyon Fire

Science.gov (United States)

Kinoshita, Alicia; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, Samira; Chin, Anne

2016-04-01

Wildfire can have significant impacts on watershed hydrology and geomorphology by changing soil properties and removing vegetation, often increasing runoff and soil erosion and deposition, debris flows, and flooding. Watershed systems may take several years or longer to recover. During this time, post-fire channel changes have the potential to alter hydraulics that influence characteristics such as time of concentration and increase time to peak flow, flow capacity, and velocity. Using the case of the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado (USA), this research will leverage field-based surveys and terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to parameterize KINEROS2 (KINematic runoff and EROSion), an event oriented, physically-based watershed runoff and erosion model. We will use the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool, which is a GIS-based hydrologic modeling tool that uses commonly available GIS data layers to parameterize, execute, and spatially visualize runoff and sediment yield for watersheds impacted by the Waldo Canyon Fire. Specifically, two models are developed, an unburned (Bear Creek) and burned (Williams) watershed. The models will simulate burn severity and treatment conditions. Field data will be used to validate the burned watersheds for pre- and post-fire changes in infiltration, runoff, peak flow, sediment yield, and sediment discharge. Spatial modeling will provide insight into post-fire patterns for varying treatment, burn severity, and climate scenarios. Results will also provide post-fire managers with improved hydro-geomorphic modeling and prediction tools for water resources management and mitigation efforts.

Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: volume I for fire managers

Science.gov (United States)

Paul A. Werth; Brian E. Potter; Craig B. Clements; Mark A. Finney; Scott L. Goodrick; Martin E. Alexander; Miguel G. Cruz; Jason A. Forthofer; Sara S. McAllister

2011-01-01

The National Wildfire Coordinating Group definition of extreme fire behavior (EFB) indicates a level of fire behavior characteristics that ordinarily precludes methods of direct control action. One or more of the following is usually involved: high rate of spread, prolific crowning/spotting, presence of fire whirls, and strong convection column. Predictability is...

Computational Modeling of Large Wildfires: A Roadmap

KAUST Repository

Coen, Janice L.

2010-08-01

Wildland fire behavior, particularly that of large, uncontrolled wildfires, has not been well understood or predicted. Our methodology to simulate this phenomenon uses high-resolution dynamic models made of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models coupled to fire behavior models to simulate fire behavior. NWP models are capable of modeling very high resolution (< 100 m) atmospheric flows. The wildland fire component is based upon semi-empirical formulas for fireline rate of spread, post-frontal heat release, and a canopy fire. The fire behavior is coupled to the atmospheric model such that low level winds drive the spread of the surface fire, which in turn releases sensible heat, latent heat, and smoke fluxes into the lower atmosphere, feeding back to affect the winds directing the fire. These coupled dynamic models capture the rapid spread downwind, flank runs up canyons, bifurcations of the fire into two heads, and rough agreement in area, shape, and direction of spread at periods for which fire location data is available. Yet, intriguing computational science questions arise in applying such models in a predictive manner, including physical processes that span a vast range of scales, processes such as spotting that cannot be modeled deterministically, estimating the consequences of uncertainty, the efforts to steer simulations with field data ("data assimilation"), lingering issues with short term forecasting of weather that may show skill only on the order of a few hours, and the difficulty of gathering pertinent data for verification and initialization in a dangerous environment. © 2010 IEEE.

Holocene fire dynamics in Fennoscandia

Science.gov (United States)

Clear, Jennifer; Seppa, Heikki; Kuosmanen, Niina; Molinari, Chiara; Lehsten, Veiko; Allen, Katherine; Bradshaw, Richard

2015-04-01

Prescribed burning is advocated in Fennoscandia to promote regeneration and to encourage biodiversity. This method of forest management is based on the perception that fire was much more frequent in the recent past and over a century of active fire suppression has created a boreal forest ecosystem almost free of natural fire. The absence of fire is thought to have contributed to the widespread dominance of Picea abies (Norway spruce) with the successive spruce dominated forest further reducing fire ignition potential. However, humans have altered the natural fire dynamics of Fennoscandia since the early- to mid-Holocene and disentangling the anthropogenic driven fire dynamics from the natural fire dynamics is challenging. Through palaeoecology and sedimentary charcoal deposits we are able to explore the Holocene spatial and temporal variability and changing drivers of fire and vegetation dynamics in Fennoscandia. At the local-scale, two forest hollow environments (history are compared to identify unique and mutual changes in disturbance history. Pollen derived quantitative reconstruction of vegetation at both the local- and regional-scale identifies local-scale disturbance dynamics and large-scale ecosystem response. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and variability in biomass burning is explored throughout Fennoscandia and Denmark to identify the changing drives of fire dynamics throughout the Holocene. Palaeo-vegetation reconstructions are compared to process-based, climate driven dynamic vegetation model output to test the significance of fire frequency as a driver of vegetation composition and dynamics. Early-Holocene fire regimes in Fennoscandia are driven by natural climate variations and fuel availability. The establishment and spread of Norway spruce is driven by an increase in continentality of climate, but local natural and anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance may have aided this spread. The expansion of spruce led to a step-wise reduction in regional biomass

Effect of fire season, fire frequency, rainfall and management on fire intensity in savanna vegetation in South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Govender, N

2006-08-01

Full Text Available in the Kruger National Park, South Africa, by documenting fuel loads, fuel moisture contents, rates of fire spread and the heat yields of fuel in 956 experimental plot burns over 21 years. 3. Individual fires were conducted in five different months (February...

Users Guide for Fire Image Analysis System - Version 5.0: A Tool for Measuring Fire Behavior Characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Carl W. Adkins

1995-01-01

The Fire Image Analysis System is a tool for quantifying flame geometry and relative position at selected points along a spreading line fire. At present, the system requires uniform terrain (constant slope). The system has been used in field and laboratory studies for determining flame length, depth, cross sectional area, and rate of spread.

Pigments which reflect infrared radiation from fire

Science.gov (United States)

Berdahl, Paul H.

1998-01-01

Conventional paints transmit or absorb most of the intense infrared (IR) radiation emitted by fire, causing them to contribute to the spread of fire. The present invention comprises a fire retardant paint additive that reflects the thermal IR radiation emitted by fire in the 1 to 20 micrometer (.mu.m) wavelength range. The important spectral ranges for fire control are typically about 1 to about 8 .mu.m or, for cool smoky fires, about 2 .mu.m to about 16 .mu.m. The improved inventive coatings reflect adverse electromagnetic energy and slow the spread of fire. Specific IR reflective pigments include titanium dioxide (rutile) and red iron oxide pigments with diameters of about 1 .mu.m to about 2 .mu.m and thin leafing aluminum flake pigments.

Applications of Living Fire PRA models to Fire Protection Significance Determination Process in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De-Cheng, Chen; Chung-Kung, Lo; Tsu-Jen, Lin; Ching-Hui, Wu; Lin, James C.

2004-01-01

The living fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models for all three operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan had been established in December 2000. In that study, a scenario-based PRA approach was adopted to systematically evaluate the fire and smoke hazards and associated risks. Using these fire PRA models developed, a risk-informed application project had also been completed in December 2002 for the evaluation of cable-tray fire-barrier wrapping exemption. This paper presents a new application of the fire PRA models to fire protection issues using the fire protection significance determination process (FP SDP). The fire protection issues studied may involve the selection of appropriate compensatory measures during the period when an automatic fire detection or suppression system in a safety-related fire zone becomes inoperable. The compensatory measure can either be a 24-hour fire watch or an hourly fire patrol. The living fire PRA models were used to estimate the increase in risk associated with the fire protection issue in terms of changes in core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF). In compliance with SDP at-power and the acceptance guidelines specified in RG 1.174, the fire protection issues in question can be grouped into four categories; red, yellow, white and green, in accordance with the guidelines developed for FD SDP. A 24-hour fire watch is suggested only required for the yellow condition, while an hourly fire patrol may be adopted for the white condition. More limiting requirement is suggested for the red condition, but no special consideration is needed for the green condition. For the calculation of risk measures, risk impacts from any additional fire scenarios that may have been introduced, as well as more severe initiating events and fire damages that may accompany the fire protection issue should be considered carefully. Examples are presented in this paper to illustrate the evaluation process. (authors)

Land cover change interacts with drought severity to change fire regimes in Western Amazonia.

Science.gov (United States)

Gutiérrez-Vélez, Víctor H; Uriarte, María; DeFries, Ruth; Pinedo-Vásquez, Miguel; Fernandes, Katia; Ceccato, Pietro; Baethgen, Walter; Padoch, Christine

Fire is becoming a pervasive driver of environmental change in Amazonia and is expected to intensify, given projected reductions in precipitation and forest cover. Understanding of the influence of post-deforestation land cover change on fires in Amazonia is limited, even though fires in cleared lands constitute a threat for ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. We used MODIS satellite data to map burned areas annually between 2001 and 2010. We then combined these maps with land cover and climate information to understand the influence of land cover change in cleared lands and dry-season severity on fire occurrence and spread in a focus area in the Peruvian Amazon. Fire occurrence, quantified as the probability of burning of individual 232-m spatial resolution MODIS pixels, was modeled as a function of the area of land cover types within each pixel, drought severity, and distance to roads. Fire spread, quantified as the number of pixels burned in 3 × 3 pixel windows around each focal burned pixel, was modeled as a function of land cover configuration and area, dry-season severity, and distance to roads. We found that vegetation regrowth and oil palm expansion are significantly correlated with fire occurrence, but that the magnitude and sign of the correlation depend on drought severity, successional stage of regrowing vegetation, and oil palm age. Burning probability increased with the area of nondegraded pastures, fallow, and young oil palm and decreased with larger extents of degraded pastures, secondary forests, and adult oil palm plantations. Drought severity had the strongest influence on fire occurrence, overriding the effectiveness of secondary forests, but not of adult plantations, to reduce fire occurrence in severely dry years. Overall, irregular and scattered land cover patches reduced fire spread but irregular and dispersed fallows and secondary forests increased fire spread during dry years. Results underscore the importance of land cover

How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lluís Brotons

Full Text Available Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain. We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape

How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

2013-01-01

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and

How Fire History, Fire Suppression Practices and Climate Change Affect Wildfire Regimes in Mediterranean Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

2013-01-01

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and

A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS

Science.gov (United States)

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson

2004-01-01

Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages--fire ignition and fire initiation. However, the exponential and Weibull fire-...

76 FR 46330 - NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG); Second Draft...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-02

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2009-0568] NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling... 1023259), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Second Draft Report for...), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Second Draft for Comment,'' is...

Modelling the probability of building fires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vojtěch Barták

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.

Modeling universal dynamics of cell spreading on elastic substrates.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Houfu; Li, Shaofan

2015-11-01

A three-dimensional (3D) multiscale moving contact line model is combined with a soft matter cell model to study the universal dynamics of cell spreading over elastic substrates. We have studied both the early stage and the late stage cell spreading by taking into account the actin tension effect. In this work, the cell is modeled as an active nematic droplet, and the substrate is modeled as a St. Venant Kirchhoff elastic medium. A complete 3D simulation of cell spreading has been carried out. The simulation results show that the spreading area versus spreading time at different stages obeys specific power laws, which is in good agreement with experimental data and theoretical prediction reported in the literature. Moreover, the simulation results show that the substrate elasticity may affect force dipole distribution inside the cell. The advantage of this approach is that it combines the hydrodynamics of actin retrograde flow with moving contact line model so that it can naturally include actin tension effect resulting from actin polymerization and actomyosin contraction, and thus it might be capable of simulating complex cellular scale phenomenon, such as cell spreading or even crawling.

Determination of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

Science.gov (United States)

Dietrich, Daniel L.; Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David

2013-01-01

This paper expands on previous work that examined how large a fire a crew member could successfully survive and extinguish in the confines of a spacecraft. The hazards to the crew and equipment during an accidental fire include excessive pressure rise resulting in a catastrophic rupture of the vehicle skin, excessive temperatures that burn or incapacitate the crew (due to hyperthermia), carbon dioxide build-up or accumulation of other combustion products (e.g. carbon monoxide). The previous work introduced a simplified model that treated the fire primarily as a source of heat and combustion products and sink for oxygen prescribed (input to the model) based on terrestrial standards. The model further treated the spacecraft as a closed system with no capability to vent to the vacuum of space. The model in the present work extends this analysis to more realistically treat the pressure relief system(s) of the spacecraft, include more combustion products (e.g. HF) in the analysis and attempt to predict the fire spread and limiting fire size (based on knowledge of terrestrial fires and the known characteristics of microgravity fires) rather than prescribe them in the analysis. Including the characteristics of vehicle pressure relief systems has a dramatic mitigating effect by eliminating vehicle overpressure for all but very large fires and reducing average gas-phase temperatures.

Large Scale Experiments on Spacecraft Fire Safety

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Urban, David L.; Ruff, Gary A.; Minster, Olivier

2012-01-01

-based microgravity facilities or has been limited to very small fuel samples. Still, the work conducted to date has shown that fire behaviour in low-gravity is very different from that in normal-gravity, with differences observed for flammability limits, ignition delay, flame spread behaviour, flame colour and flame......Full scale fire testing complemented by computer modelling has provided significant knowhow about the risk, prevention and suppression of fire in terrestrial systems (cars, ships, planes, buildings, mines, and tunnels). In comparison, no such testing has been carried out for manned spacecraft due...... to the complexity, cost and risk associ-ated with operating a long duration fire safety experiment of a relevant size in microgravity. Therefore, there is currently a gap in knowledge of fire behaviour in spacecraft. The entire body of low-gravity fire research has either been conducted in short duration ground...

Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

Science.gov (United States)

Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

2013-04-01

disturbance such as fire. SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRe and Emissions) mechanistically simulates the number of fires, area burnt, fire intensity, crown fires, fire-induced plant mortality, and emissions of carbon, trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. Originally developed as an embedded model within LPJ-DGVM, SPITFIRE has since been coupled to LPJ-GUESS. However, neither LPJ-DGVM-SPITFIRE nor LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE has been fully benchmarked, especially in terms of how well each model simulates vegetation patterns and biomass in areas where fire is known to be important. This information is crucial if we are to have confidence in the models in forecasting fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems. Here we report on the benchmarking of the LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE model. We benchmarked LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE driven by a combination of daily reanalysis climate data (Sheffield 2012), monthly GFEDv3 burnt area data (1997-2009) (van der Werf et al. 2010) and long-term annual fire statistics (1901 to 2000) (Mouillot and Field 2005) against new Lidar-based biomass data for tropical forests and savannas (Saatchi et al. 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). Our new work has focused on revising the way GUESS simulates tree allometry, light penetration through the tree canopy and sapling recruitment, and how GUESS-SPITFIRE simulates fire-induced mortality, all based on recent literature, as well as a more explicit accounting of land cover change (JRC's GLC 2009). We present how these combined changes result in a much improved simulation of tree carbon across the tropics, including the Americas, Africa, Asia and Australia. Our results are compared with respect to more empirical-based approaches to calculating emissions from biomass burning. We discuss our findings in terms of improved forecasting of fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems.

Fuel buildup and potential fire behavior after stand-replacing fires, logging fire-killed trees and herbicide shrub removal in Sierra Nevada forests

Science.gov (United States)

McGinnis, Thomas W.; Keeley, Jon E.; Stephens, Scott L.; Roller, Gary B.

2010-01-01

Typically, after large stand-replacing fires in mid-elevation Sierra Nevada forests, dense shrub fields occupy sites formerly occupied by mature conifers, until eventually conifers overtop and shade out shrubs. Attempting to reduce fuel loads and expedite forest regeneration in these areas, the USDA Forest Service often disrupts this cycle by the logging of fire-killed trees, replanting of conifers and killing of shrubs. We measured the effects of these treatments on live and dead fuel loads and alien species and modeled potential fire behavior and fire effects on regenerating forests. Sampling occurred in untreated, logged and herbicide-treated stands throughout the Sierra Nevada in four large fire areas 4–21 years after stand-replacing fires. Logging fire-killed trees significantly increased total available dead fuel loads in the short term but did not affect shrub cover, grass and forb cover, alien species cover or alien species richness. Despite the greater available dead fuel loads, fire behavior was not modeled to be different between logged and untreated stands, due to abundant shrub fuels in both logged and untreated stands. In contrast, the herbicide treatment directed at shrubs resulted in extremely low shrub cover, significantly greater alien species richness and significantly greater alien grass and forb cover. Grass and forb cover was strongly correlated with solar radiation on the ground, which may be the primary reason that grass and forb cover was higher in herbicide treated stands with low shrub and tree cover. Repeat burning exacerbated the alien grass problem in some stands. Although modeled surface fire flame lengths and rates of spread were found to be greater in stands dominated by shrubs, compared to low shrub cover conifer plantations, surface fire would still be intense enough to kill most trees, given their small size and low crown heights in the first two decades after planting.

Occurrence and spread of nonnative invasive plants in stands treated with fire and/or mechanical treatments in the upper piedmont of South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Ross J. Phillips; Thomas A. Waldrop; Aaron D. Stottlemyer

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of nonnative invasive plant species and the expansion of existing nonnative plant populations provide challenges for land managers trying to achieve commercial and restoration goals. Some methods used to achieve these goals, e.g., prescribed fire and mechanical treatments, may result in disturbances that promote the establishment and spread of...

Web malware spread modelling and optimal control strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wanping; Zhong, Shouming

2017-02-01

The popularity of the Web improves the growth of web threats. Formulating mathematical models for accurate prediction of malicious propagation over networks is of great importance. The aim of this paper is to understand the propagation mechanisms of web malware and the impact of human intervention on the spread of malicious hyperlinks. Considering the characteristics of web malware, a new differential epidemic model which extends the traditional SIR model by adding another delitescent compartment is proposed to address the spreading behavior of malicious links over networks. The spreading threshold of the model system is calculated, and the dynamics of the model is theoretically analyzed. Moreover, the optimal control theory is employed to study malware immunization strategies, aiming to keep the total economic loss of security investment and infection loss as low as possible. The existence and uniqueness of the results concerning the optimality system are confirmed. Finally, numerical simulations show that the spread of malware links can be controlled effectively with proper control strategy of specific parameter choice.

Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas A. Spies

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon. Our model incorporated existing models of vegetation succession and fire spread and information from original empirical studies of landowner decision making. Our findings indicate that alternative management strategies can have variable effects on landscape outcomes over 50 years for fire, socioeconomic, and ecosystem services metrics. For example, scenarios with federal restoration treatments had slightly less high-severity fire than a scenario without treatment; exposure of homes in the wildland-urban interface to fire was also slightly less with restoration treatments compared to no management. Treatments appeared to be more effective at reducing high-severity fire in years with more fire than in years with less fire. Under the current management scenario, timber production could be maintained for at least 50 years on federal lands. Under an accelerated restoration scenario, timber production fell because of a shortage of areas meeting current stand structure treatment targets. Trade-offs between restoration outcomes (e.g., open forests with large fire-resistant trees and habitat for species that require dense older forests were evident. For example, the proportional area of nesting habitat for northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis was somewhat less after 50 years under the restoration scenarios than under no management. However, the amount of resilient older forest structure and habitat for white-headed woodpecker (Leuconotopicus albolarvatus was higher after 50 years under active management. More carbon was stored on this landscape without management than

FIREPLUME model for plume dispersion from fires: Application to uranium hexafluoride cylinder fires

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, D.F.; Dunn, W.E.

1997-06-01

This report provides basic documentation of the FIREPLUME model and discusses its application to the prediction of health impacts resulting from releases of uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) in fires. The model application outlined in this report was conducted for the Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Alternative Strategies for the Long-Term Management and Use of Depleted UF 6 . The FIREPLUME model is an advanced stochastic model for atmospheric plume dispersion that predicts the downwind consequences of a release of toxic materials from an explosion or a fire. The model is based on the nonbuoyant atmospheric dispersion model MCLDM (Monte Carlo Lagrangian Dispersion Model), which has been shown to be consistent with available laboratory and field data. The inclusion of buoyancy and the addition of a postprocessor to evaluate time-varying concentrations lead to the current model. The FIREPLUME model, as applied to fire-related UF 6 cylinder releases, accounts for three phases of release and dispersion. The first phase of release involves the hydraulic rupture of the cylinder due to heating of the UF 6 in the fire. The second phase involves the emission of material into the burning fire, and the third phase involves the emission of material after the fire has died during the cool-down period. The model predicts the downwind concentration of the material as a function of time at any point downwind at or above the ground. All together, five fire-related release scenarios are examined in this report. For each scenario, downwind concentrations of the UF 6 reaction products, uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluoride, are provided for two meteorological conditions: (1) D stability with a 4-m/s wind speed, and (2) F stability with a 1-m/s wind speed

A geo-information system approach for forest fire likelihood based on causative and anti - causative factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Srivastava, Sanjay K.; Saran, Sameer; de By, R.A.; Dadhwal, V.K.

2014-01-01

Innumerable forest fire spread models exist for taking a decision, but far less focus is on the real causative factors which initiate/ignite fire in an area. It has been observed that the majority of the forest fires in India are initiated due to anthropogenic factors. In this study, we develop a

Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Hal E. Anderson

1982-01-01

Presents photographs of wildland vegetation appropriate for the 13 fuel models used in mathematical models of fire behavior. Fuel model descriptions include fire behavior associated with each fuel and its physical characteristics. A similarity chart cross-references the 13 fire behavior fuel models to the 20 fuel models used in the National Fire Danger Rating System....

Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Fierro, Annalisa; Liccardo, Antonella

2013-01-01

Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.

Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annalisa Fierro

Full Text Available Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1 epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI. We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious

Simulating wall and corner fire tests on wood products with the OSU room fire model

Science.gov (United States)

H. C. Tran

1994-01-01

This work demonstrates the complexity of modeling wall and corner fires in a compartment. The model chosen for this purpose is the Ohio State University (OSU) room fire model. This model was designed to simulate fire growth on walls in a compartment and therefore lends itself to direct comparison with standard room test results. The model input were bench-scale data...

Mathematical model for spreading dynamics of social network worms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Xin; Liu, Yan-Heng; Han, Jia-Wei; Liu, Xue-Jie; Li, Bin; Li, Jin

2012-01-01

In this paper, a mathematical model for social network worm spreading is presented from the viewpoint of social engineering. This model consists of two submodels. Firstly, a human behavior model based on game theory is suggested for modeling and predicting the expected behaviors of a network user encountering malicious messages. The game situation models the actions of a user under the condition that the system may be infected at the time of opening a malicious message. Secondly, a social network accessing model is proposed to characterize the dynamics of network users, by which the number of online susceptible users can be determined at each time step. Several simulation experiments are carried out on artificial social networks. The results show that (1) the proposed mathematical model can well describe the spreading dynamics of social network worms; (2) weighted network topology greatly affects the spread of worms; (3) worms spread even faster on hybrid social networks

Dynamical Model about Rumor Spreading with Medium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaxia Zhao

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Rumor is a kind of social remark, that is untrue, and not be confirmed, and spreads on a large scale in a short time. Usually, it can induce a cloud of pressure, anxiety, and panic. Traditionally, it is propagated by word of mouth. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.

A Study of Coal Fire Propagation with Remotely Sensed Thermal Infrared Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongyuan Huo

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Coal fires are a common and serious problem in most coal-bearing countries. Thus, it is very important to monitor changes in coal fires. Remote sensing provides a useful technique for investigating coal fields at a large scale and for detecting coal fires. In this study, the spreading direction of a coal fire in the Wuda Coal Field (WCF, northwest China, was analyzed using multi-temporal Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+ thermal infrared (TIR data. Using an automated method and based on the land surface temperatures (LST that were retrieved from these thermal data, coal fires related to thermal anomalies were identified; the locations of these fires were validated using a coal fire map (CFM that was developed via field surveys; and the cross-validation of the results was also carried out using the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER thermal infrared images. Based on the results from longtime series of satellite TIR data set, the spreading directions of the coal fires were determined and the coal fire development on the scale of the entire coal field was predicted. The study delineated the spreading direction using the results of the coal fire dynamics analysis, and a coal fire spreading direction map was generated. The results showed that the coal fires primarily spread north or northeast in the central part of the WCF and south or southwest in the southern part of the WCF. In the northern part of the WCF, some coal fires were spreading north, perhaps coinciding with the orientation of the coal belt. Certain coal fires scattered in the northern and southern parts of the WCF were extending in bilateral directions. A quantitative analysis of the coal fires was also performed; the results indicate that the area of the coal fires increased an average of approximately 0.101 km2 per year.

International collaborative fire modeling project (ICFMP). Summary of benchmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roewekamp, Marina; Klein-Hessling, Walter; Dreisbach, Jason; McGrattan, Kevin; Miles, Stewart; Plys, Martin; Riese, Olaf

2008-09-01

This document was developed in the frame of the 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' (ICFMP). The objective of this collaborative project is to share the knowledge and resources of various organizations to evaluate and improve the state of the art of fire models for use in nuclear power plant fire safety, fire hazard analysis and fire risk assessment. The project is divided into two phases. The objective of the first phase is to evaluate the capabilities of current fire models for fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. The second phase will extend the validation database of those models and implement beneficial improvements to the models that are identified in the first phase of ICFMP. In the first phase, more than 20 expert institutions from six countries were represented in the collaborative project. This Summary Report gives an overview on the results of the first phase of the international collaborative project. The main objective of the project was to evaluate the capability of fire models to analyze a variety of fire scenarios typical for nuclear power plants (NPP). The evaluation of the capability of fire models to analyze these scenarios was conducted through a series of in total five international Benchmark Exercises. Different types of models were used by the participating expert institutions from five countries. The technical information that will be useful for fire model users, developers and further experts is summarized in this document. More detailed information is provided in the corresponding technical reference documents for the ICFMP Benchmark Exercises No. 1 to 5. The objective of these exercises was not to compare the capabilities and strengths of specific models, address issues specific to a model, nor to recommend specific models over others. This document is not intended to provide guidance to users of fire models. Guidance on the use of fire models is currently being

Mathematical modeling of cryogenic spills onto quiescent sea waters followed by pool fires of liquefied natural gas (LNG)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esteves, Alan Silva; Reis Parise, José Alberto

2013-01-01

Spill and combustion of a pool as a result of a spreading of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at sea from punctures on carrier hulls is presented. Models from literature combined mechanisms of flow thorough an orifice, formation of a semicircular pool, vaporization of a cryogenic fluid by boiling and pool fire heating, ignition, non-premixed turbulent fire with variation with height of the emissive power of the ‘visible’ plume, burning of fuel along the ‘luminous’ zone (fire base) and radiation emitted by gray gases and soot particles from the combustion zone. A review of the experimental data on vaporization velocity and burning rate is presented. Predictions agreed well with existing experimental data and other models. The model simulated fires from 1 to 5 m diameter holes in vessel geometries of 125,000 and 265,000 m 3 . Predictions are plausible, and robust enough to be applied in industrial practice. The construction of an LNG terminal involves, among other parameters, the prediction of thermal radiation fields emitted by pool fires. This is to evaluate safe distances to vulnerable resources around the facility. -- Highlights: • More than 20 orifice models published since 1969 were reviewed. • Flow parameter adjusted with proxy equations for a ∗,max and t * v within 1/3 ≤ ϕ ≤ 30. • Review of experimental of data for vaporization velocities covered since 1978. • The axial emissive power along the fire plume increases with vaporization velocity. • Plume height/diameter ratio of termal plume was nearly insensitive to the scale up of carrier cargo capacity

Designing fire safe interiors.

Science.gov (United States)

Belles, D W

1992-01-01

Any product that causes a fire to grow large is deficient in fire safety performance. A large fire in any building represents a serious hazard. Multiple-death fires almost always are linked to fires that grow quickly to a large size. Interior finishes have large, continuous surfaces over which fire can spread. They are regulated to slow initial fire growth, and must be qualified for use on the basis of fire tests. To obtain meaningful results, specimens must be representative of actual installation. Variables--such as the substrate, the adhesive, and product thickness and density--can affect product performance. The tunnel test may not adequately evaluate some products, such as foam plastics or textile wall coverings, thermoplastic materials, or materials of minimal mass. Where questions exist, products should be evaluated on a full-scale basis. Curtains and draperies are examples of products that ignite easily and spread flames readily. The present method for testing curtains and draperies evaluates one fabric at a time. Although a fabric tested alone may perform well, fabrics that meet test standards individually sometimes perform poorly when tested in combination. Contents and furnishings constitute the major fuels in many fires. Contents may involve paper products and other lightweight materials that are easily ignited and capable of fast fire growth. Similarly, a small source may ignite many items of furniture that are capable of sustained fire growth. Upholstered furniture can reach peak burning rates in less than 5 minutes. Furnishings have been associated with many multiple-death fires.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Wildland fire as a self-regulating mechanism: the role of previous burns and weather in limiting fire progression

Science.gov (United States)

Sean A. Parks; Lisa M. Holsinger; Carol Miller; Cara R. Nelson

2015-01-01

Theory suggests that natural fire regimes can result in landscapes that are both self-regulating and resilient to fire. For example, because fires consume fuel, they may create barriers to the spread of future fires, thereby regulating fire size. Top-down controls such as weather, however, can weaken this effect. While empirical examples demonstrating this pattern-...

Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, N.

1989-01-01

This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

Prediction of fire growth on furniture using CFD

Science.gov (United States)

Pehrson, Richard David

A fire growth calculation method has been developed that couples a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model with bench scale cone calorimeter test data for predicting the rate of flame spread on compartment contents such as furniture. The commercial CFD code TASCflow has been applied to solve time averaged conservation equations using an algebraic multigrid solver with mass weighted skewed upstream differencing for advection. Closure models include k-e for turbulence, eddy breakup for combustion following a single step irreversible reaction with Arrhenius rate constant, finite difference radiation transfer, and conjugate heat transfer. Radiation properties are determined from concentrations of soot, CO2 and H2O using the narrow band model of Grosshandler and exponential wide band curve fit model of Modak. The growth in pyrolyzing area is predicted by treating flame spread as a series of piloted ignitions based on coupled gas-fluid boundary conditions. The mass loss rate from a given surface element follows the bench scale test data for input to the combustion prediction. The fire growth model has been tested against foam-fabric mattresses and chairs burned in the furniture calorimeter. In general, agreement between model and experiment for peak heat release rate (HRR), time to peak HRR, and total energy lost is within +/-20%. Used as a proxy for the flame spread velocity, the slope of the HRR curve predicted by model agreed with experiment within +/-20% for all but one case.

Forest fires

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuller, M.

1991-01-01

This book examines the many complex and sensitive issues relating to wildland fires. Beginning with an overview of the fires of 1980s, the book discusses the implications of continued drought and considers the behavior of wildland fires, from ignition and spread to spotting and firestorms. Topics include the effects of weather, forest fuels, fire ecology, and the effects of fire on plants and animals. In addition, the book examines firefighting methods and equipment, including new minimum impact techniques and compressed air foam; prescribed burning; and steps that can be taken to protect individuals and human structures. A history of forest fire policies in the U.S. and a discussion of solutions to fire problems around the world completes the coverage. With one percent of the earth's surface burning every year in the last decade, this is a penetrating book on a subject of undeniable importance

Fire Modeling Institute 2011 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Robin J. Innes

2012-01-01

The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI), a part of the Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program, provides a bridge between scientists and managers. The mission of FMI is to bring the best available science and technology developed throughout the research community to bear on fire-related management issues across the nation. Resource management...

Development of risk assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors. (3) Numerical simulations of forest fire spread and smoke transport as an external hazard assessment methodology development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okano, Yasushi; Yamano, Hidemasa

2015-01-01

As a part of a development of the risk assessment methodologies against external hazards, a new methodology to assess forest fire hazards is being developed. Frequency and consequence of the forest fire are analyzed to obtain the hazard intensity curve and then Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment is performed to obtain the conditional core damage probability due to the challenges by the forest fire. 'Heat', 'flame', 'smoke' and 'flying object' are the challenges to a nuclear power plant. For a sodium-cooled fast reactor, a decay heat removal under accident conditions is operated with an ultimate heat sink of air, then, the challenge by 'smoke' will potentially be on the air filter of the system. In this paper, numerical simulations of forest fire propagation and smoke transport were performed with sensibility studies to weather conditions, and the effect by the smoke on the air filter was quantitatively evaluated. Forest fire propagation simulations were performed using FARSITE code. A temporal increase of a forest fire spread area and a position of the frontal fireline are obtained by the simulation, and 'reaction intensity' and 'frontal fireline intensity' as the indexes of 'heat' are obtained as well. The boundary of the fire spread area is shaped like an ellipse on the terrain, and the boundary length is increased with time and fire spread. The sensibility analyses on weather conditions of wind, temperature, and humidity were performed, and it was summarized that 'forest fire spread rate' and 'frontal fireline intensity' depend much on wind speed and humidity. Smoke transport simulations were performed by ALOFT-FT code where three-dimensional spatial distribution of smoke density, especially of particle matters of PM2.5 and PM10, are evaluated. The snapshot outputs, namely 'reaction intensity' and 'position of frontal fireline', from the sensibility studies of the FARSITE were directly utilized as the input data for ALOFT-FT, whereas it is assumed that the

Climate change impact on landscape fire and forest biomass dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, C.

2004-01-01

The aim of this study was to improve current understandings of fire regimes. The estimation of biomass dynamics at the stand scale is essential for understanding landscape scale biomass dynamics, particularly in order to understand the potential effects of fire regimes. This study presented a synthesis of research results obtained from stand scale studies together with fire behaviour and weather variables. Landscape structure, topography and climate conditions were also considered. Integration of the data was conducted with the SEM-LAND model, a spatially explicit model for landscape dynamics. Equations for the model were presented, including fire initiation and spread, as well as a lightning fire process and simulated fire suppression. Results indicated that fire suppression could alter the distribution of fire sizes. The effect of tree and stand mortality on forest biomass estimates was also discussed along with the impact of climate change on fire regimes. Results indicate that fire activities are likely to increase. Results also demonstrate that fire frequency and size distribution are correlated without human intervention. Theoretical negative exponential forest age distribution is not always supported by empirical observations. Point-based fire frequency and fire cycle definitions are special cases from a computational perspective. Detection of quantitative interrelationships may simplify preconditions for estimating fire regimes, and serve as a means to address incomplete empirical observations. 12 refs., 3 figs

Epidemiological models for the spread of anti-malarial resistance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antia R

2003-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The spread of drug resistance is making malaria control increasingly difficult. Mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of drug sensitive and resistant strains can be a useful tool to help to understand the factors that influence the spread of drug resistance, and they can therefore help in the design of rational strategies for the control of drug resistance. Methods We present an epidemiological framework to investigate the spread of anti-malarial resistance. Several mathematical models, based on the familiar Macdonald-Ross model of malaria transmission, enable us to examine the processes and parameters that are critical in determining the spread of resistance. Results In our simplest model, resistance does not spread if the fraction of infected individuals treated is less than a threshold value; if drug treatment exceeds this threshold, resistance will eventually become fixed in the population. The threshold value is determined only by the rates of infection and the infectious periods of resistant and sensitive parasites in untreated and treated hosts, whereas the intensity of transmission has no influence on the threshold value. In more complex models, where hosts can be infected by multiple parasite strains or where treatment varies spatially, resistance is generally not fixed, but rather some level of sensitivity is often maintained in the population. Conclusions The models developed in this paper are a first step in understanding the epidemiology of anti-malarial resistance and evaluating strategies to reduce the spread of resistance. However, specific recommendations for the management of resistance need to wait until we have more data on the critical parameters underlying the spread of resistance: drug use, spatial variability of treatment and parasite migration among areas, and perhaps most importantly, cost of resistance.

Determination of Fire Enviroment in Stacked Cargo Containers with Radioactive Materials Packages

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arviso, M.; Bobbe, J.G.; Dukart, R.D.; Koski, J.A.

1999-05-01

Results from a Fire Test with a three-by-three stack of standard 6 m long International Standards Organization shipping containers containing combustible fuels and empty radioactive materials packages are reported and discussed. The stack is intended to simulate fire conditions that could occur during on-deck stowage on container cargo ships. The fire is initated by locating the container stack adjacent to a 9.8 x 6 m pool fire. Temperatures of both cargoes (empty and simulated radioactive materials packages) and containers are recorded and reported. Observations on the duration, intensity and spread of the fire are discussed. Based on the results, models for simulation of fire exposure of radioactive materials packages in such fires are suggested.

Ripple-Spreading Network Model Optimization by Genetic Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-Bing Hu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Small-world and scale-free properties are widely acknowledged in many real-world complex network systems, and many network models have been developed to capture these network properties. The ripple-spreading network model (RSNM is a newly reported complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon on clam water surface. The RSNM exhibits good potential for describing both spatial and temporal features in the development of many real-world networks where the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes and then largely determines the final network topology. However, the relationships between ripple-spreading related parameters (RSRPs of RSNM and small-world and scale-free topologies are not as obvious or straightforward as in many other network models. This paper attempts to apply genetic algorithm (GA to tune the values of RSRPs, so that the RSNM may generate these two most important network topologies. The study demonstrates that, once RSRPs are properly tuned by GA, the RSNM is capable of generating both network topologies and therefore has a great flexibility to study many real-world complex network systems.

Forest fire situation analysis over forest reserve land in Tomsk petroleum province

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pasko, O A; Baranova, A V

2015-01-01

The paper delivers the analysis of space-time characteristics of forest fire ignition and spread in the North of Tomsk oblast, i.e. petroleum production area (Kargasok, Parabel and Teguldet districts). It also presents long-term and seasonal forest fire behavior including fire ignition and spread frequency (annual and seasonal), the fire season duration and their zonality. The main driving factors of forest fire ignition both human and natural ones are revealed

A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jiao; Zheng, Muhua; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Wang, Wei; Gu, Changgui; Liu, Zonghua

2018-03-01

Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through the Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events on Sina Weibo, we surprisingly find that the spreading of modern information shows some new features, i.e., either extremely fast or slow, depending on the individual events. To understand its mechanism, we present a susceptible-accepted-recovered model with both information sensitivity and social reinforcement. Numerical simulations show that the model can reproduce the main spreading patterns of the six typical events. By this model, we further reveal that the spreading can be speeded up by increasing either the strength of information sensitivity or social reinforcement. Depending on the transmission probability and information sensitivity, the final accepted size can change from continuous to discontinuous transition when the strength of the social reinforcement is large. Moreover, an edge-based compartmental theory is presented to explain the numerical results. These findings may be of significance on the control of information spreading in modern society.

A numerical study of atmospheric perturbations induced by heat from a wildland fire: sensitivity to vertical canopy structure and heat source strength

Science.gov (United States)

Michael T. Kiefer; Shiyuan Zhong; Warren E. Heilman; Joseph J. Charney; Xindi. Bian

2018-01-01

An improved understanding of atmospheric perturbations within and above a forest during a wildland fire has relevance to many aspects of wildland fires including fire spread, smoke transport and dispersion, and tree mortality. In this study, the ARPS-CANOPY model, a version of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model with a canopy parameterization, is...

Modeling of air toxics from hydrocarbon pool fires

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, K.A.; Aydil, M.L.; Barone, J.B.

1996-01-01

While there is guidance for estimating the radiation hazards of fires (ARCHIE), there is little guidance on modeling the dispersion of hazardous materials from fires. The objective of this paper is to provide a review of the methodology used for modeling the impacts of liquid hydrocarbon pool fires. The required input variables for modeling of hydrocarbon pool fires include emission strength, emission duration, and dispersion characteristics. Methods for predicting the products of combustion including the use of literature values, test data, and thermodynamic equilibrium calculations are discussed. The use of energy balances coupled to radiative heat transfer calculations are presented as a method for determining flame temperature. Fire modeling literature is reviewed in order to determine other source release variables such as mass burn rate and duration and flame geometry

Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels

Science.gov (United States)

Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František

2017-09-01

The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.

Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon

2016-01-01

In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

Modelling unidirectional liquid spreading on slanted microposts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavalli, Andrea; Blow, Matthew L.; Yeomans, Julia M.

2013-01-01

A lattice Boltzmann algorithm is used to simulate the slow spreading of drops on a surface patterned with slanted micro-posts. Gibb's pinning of the interface on the sides or top of the posts leads to unidirectional spreading over a wide range of contact angles and inclination angles of the posts....... Regimes for spreading in no, one or two directions are identified, and shown to agree well with a two-dimensional theory proposed in Chu, Xiao and Wang. A more detailed numerical analysis of the contact line shapes allows us to understand deviations from the two dimensional model, and to identify...

A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Boer, Matthias

2015-04-01

Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

Modeling fuels and fire effects in 3D: Model description and applications

Science.gov (United States)

Francois Pimont; Russell Parsons; Eric Rigolot; Francois de Coligny; Jean-Luc Dupuy; Philippe Dreyfus; Rodman R. Linn

2016-01-01

Scientists and managers critically need ways to assess how fuel treatments alter fire behavior, yet few tools currently exist for this purpose.We present a spatially-explicit-fuel-modeling system, FuelManager, which models fuels, vegetation growth, fire behavior (using a physics-based model, FIRETEC), and fire effects. FuelManager's flexible approach facilitates...

Fire simulation of the canister transfer and installation vehicle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peltokorpi, L.

2012-12-01

A pyrolysis model of the canister transfer and installation vehicle was developed and vehicle fires in the final disposal tunnel and in the central tunnel were simulated using the fire simulation program FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator). For comparison, same vehicle fire was also simulated at conditions in which the fire remained as a fuel controlled during the whole simulation. The purpose of the fire simulations was to simulate the fire behaviour realistically taking into account for example the limitations coming from the lack of oxygen. The material parameters for the rubber were defined and the simulation models for the tyres developed by simulating the fire test of a front wheel loader rubber tyre done by SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden. In these simulations the most important phenomena were successfully brought out but the timing of the phenomena was difficult. The final values for the rubber material parameters were chosen so that the simulated fire behaviour was at least as intense as the measured one. In the vehicle fire simulations a hydraulic oil or diesel leak causing a pool fire size of 2 MW and 2 m 2 was assumed. The pool fire was assumed to be located under the tyres of the SPMT (Self Propelled Modular Transporters) transporter. In each of the vehicle fire simulations only the tyres of the SPMT transporter were observed to be burning whereas the tyres of the trailer remained untouched. In the fuel controlled fire the maximum power was slightly under 10 MW which was reached in about 18 minutes. In the final disposal tunnel the growth of the fire was limited due to the lack of oxygen and the relatively fast air flows existing in the tunnel. Fast air flows caused the flame spreading to be limited to the certain directions. In the final disposal tunnel fire the maximum power was slightly over 7 MW which was reached about 8 minutes after the ignition. In the central tunnel there was no shortage of oxygen but the spread of the fire was limited due

Fire behavior in Mediterranean shrub species (Maquis)

African Journals Online (AJOL)

STORAGESEVER

2008-11-19

Nov 19, 2008 ... 36°C. Of the fire behavior characteristics, rate of spread ranged from 0.38 to 7.35 m min-1, fuel ... Key words: Fire behavior, fuel biomass, Maquis, shrubland, Turkey. ...... Two rural/urban interface fires in the Wellington.

Performing of recent real scale cable fire experiments and presentation of the results in the frame of the international collaborative fire modeling project ICFMP. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosser, Dietmar; Riese, Olaf; Klingenberg, Mark

2005-01-01

As a part of the Fire Risk Research Program, the German iBMB (Institut fuer Baustoffe, Massivbau und Brandschutz) of Braunschweig University of Technology and GRS (Gesellschaft fuer Anlagenund Reaktorsicherheit mbH) are participating in an International Collaborative Fire Modeling Project (ICFMP) to assess and validate fire computer codes for nuclear power plant applications. This assessment is being conducted through benchmarking and validation exercises. The tests are simulating cable fires scenarios in a single compartment. The goal of the actual cable fire series is to investigate the effects of a natural fire to vertically routed cables (worst case) with different cable insulation material (PVC and FRNC). Another important aspect of cable fire is the risk of function failure. Therefore in the test series the short circuit and the conduction loss of cables are measured. This report includes a first description of the experimental results for test 1 - test 4 of the International Collaborative Fire Model Project conducted in December 2003 at the iBMB in Germany. The experimental data are reported on the International Collaborative Fire Model Project - Platform. The measured data shall be the basis for fire simulations. The tests show that the FRNC cables have significantly better characteristics in case of fire. No substantial flame spread takes place even in case of preheating. PVC cables could be ignited with a burner output of 50 kW, in contrary, the FRNC cables could be ignited at burner output of 150 kW. The preheating has a complex effect on the fire behavior of the cables. It may occur that gases are pyrolysed which are not ignited during the phase of preheating. These gases are transported from the cable surrounding and may leave the fire room. Short circuits occur first in case ''conductor to conductor'' and later in case ''conductor to tray''. The time periods until short circuits occur are strongly dependent on the preheating of the cables. In case of

Evaluation of fire probabilistic safety assessment for a PWR plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, C.H.; Lin, T.J.; Kao, T.M.

2001-01-01

The internal fire analysis of the level 1 power operation probability safety assessment (PSA) for Maanshan (PWR) Nuclear Power Plant (MNPP) was updated. The fire analysis adopted a scenario-based PSA approach to systematically evaluate fire and smoke hazards and their associated risk impact to MNPP. The result shows that the core damage frequency (CDF) due to fire is about six times lower than the previous one analyzed by the Atomic Energy Council (AEC), Republic of China in 1987. The plant model was modified to reflect the impact of human events and recovery actions during fire. Many tabulated EXCEL spread-sheets were used for evaluation of the fire risk. The fire-induced CDF for MNPP is found to be 2.1 E-6 per year in this study. The relative results of the fire analysis will provide the bases for further risk-informed fire protection evaluation in the near future. (author)

Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: volume 2 for fire behavior specialists, researchers, and meteorologists

Science.gov (United States)

Paul A. Werth; Brian E. Potter; Martin E. Alexander; Craig B. Clements; Miguel G. Cruz; Mark A. Finney; Jason M. Forthofer; Scott L. Goodrick; Chad Hoffman; W. Matt Jolly; Sara S. McAllister; Roger D. Ottmar; Russell A. Parsons

2016-01-01

The National Wildfire Coordinating Group’s definition of extreme fire behavior indicates a level of fire behavior characteristics that ordinarily precludes methods of direct control action. One or more of the following is usually involved: high rate of spread, prolific crowning/ spotting, presence of fire whirls, and strong convection column. Predictability is...

Overview of fire curtains in construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nedryshkin Oleg

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A fire curtain is use where, if there is a fire, it is necessary to create a temporary barrier within an opening, which seals off the area on fire. The curtain descends and prevents any fire and smoke from spreading from one area to another. It also allows people access to protected escape routes without any loss of fire resistance. The paper aims to presents the results of analysis of the scientific literature on the subject of fire curtains.

Fire in Fennoscandia: A palaeo-perspective of spatial and temporal variability in fire frequency and vegetation dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Clear, Jennifer; Bradshaw, Richard; Seppä, Heikki

2014-05-01

Active fire suppression in Fennoscandia has created a boreal forest ecosystem that is almost free of fire. Absence of fire is thought to have contributed to the widespread dominance of Picea abies (Norway spruce), though the character and structure of spruce forests operates as a positive feedback retarding fire frequency. This lack of fire and dominance by Picea abies may have assisted declines in deciduous tree species, with a concomitant loss of floristic diversity. Forest fires are driven by a complex interplay between natural (climate, vegetation and topography) and anthropogenic disturbance and through palaeoecology we are able to explore spatio-temporal variability in the drivers of fire, changing fire dynamics and the subsequent consequences for forest succession, development and floristic diversity over long timescales. High resolution analysis of palaeoenvironmental proxies (pollen and macroscopic charcoal) allows Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics to be reconstructed at the local forest-stand scale. Comparisons of fire histories with pollen-derived quantitative reconstruction of vegetation at local- and regional-scales identify large-scale ecosystem responses and local-scale disturbance. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and variability in biomass burning is explored to identify the drivers of fire and palaeovegetation reconstructions are compared to process-based, climate-driven dynamic vegetation model output to test the significance of fire frequency as a driver of vegetation composition and dynamics. Fire was not always so infrequent in the northern European forest with early-Holocene fire regimes driven by natural climate variations and fuel availability. The establishment and spread of Picea abies was probably driven by an increase in continentality of climate, but local natural and anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance may have aided this spread. Picea expansion led to a step-wise reduction in regional biomass burning and here we show the now

Ventilation system in fire modelization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cordero Garcia, S.

2012-01-01

There is a model of fire in an enclosure formed by two rooms. In one of them, it will cause the fire and check how the system of ventilation in different configurations responds. In addition, the behavior of selected targets, which will be a configuration of cables similar to those found in nuclear power stations will be analyzed.

Large-Scale Spacecraft Fire Safety Tests

Science.gov (United States)

Urban, David; Ruff, Gary A.; Ferkul, Paul V.; Olson, Sandra; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; T'ien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Cowlard, Adam J.; Rouvreau, Sebastien; Minster, Olivier;

Spread of neuronal degeneration in a dopaminergic, Lrrk-G2019S model of Parkinson disease

Science.gov (United States)

Hindle, Samantha J.; Elliott, Christopher J.H.

2013-01-01

Flies expressing the most common Parkinson disease (PD)-related mutation, LRRK2-G2019S, in their dopaminergic neurons show loss of visual function and degeneration of the retina, including mitochondrial abnormalities, apoptosis and autophagy. Since the photoreceptors that degenerate are not dopaminergic, this demonstrates nonautonomous degeneration, and a spread of pathology. This provides a model consistent with Braak’s hypothesis on progressive PD. The loss of visual function is specific for the G2019S mutation, implying the cause is its increased kinase activity, and is enhanced by increased neuronal activity. These data suggest novel explanations for the variability in animal models of PD. The specificity of visual loss to G2019S, coupled with the differences in neural firing rate, provide an explanation for the variability between people with PD in visual tests. PMID:23529190

Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, Hamish; Evans, Jason P.

2018-05-01

High-resolution projections of climate change impacts on fire weather conditions in southeast Australia out to 2080 are presented. Fire weather is represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble. Changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from - 337 (- 21%) to + 657 (+ 24%) in coastal areas and - 237 (- 12%) to + 1143 (+ 26%) in inland areas. A similar spread is projected in extreme FFDI values. In coastal regions, the number of prescribed burning days is projected to change from - 11 to + 10 in autumn and - 10 to + 3 in spring. Across the ensemble, the most significant increases in fire weather and decreases in prescribed burn windows are projected to take place in spring. Partial bias correction of FFDI leads to similar projections but with a greater spread, particularly in extreme values. The partially bias-corrected FFDI performs similarly to uncorrected FFDI compared to the observed annual cumulative FFDI (ensemble root mean square error spans 540 to 1583 for uncorrected output and 695 to 1398 for corrected) but is generally worse for FFDI values above 50. This emphasizes the need to consider inter-variable relationships when bias-correcting for complex phenomena such as fire weather. There is considerable uncertainty in the future trajectory of fire weather in southeast Australia, including the potential for less prescribed burning days and substantially greater fire danger in spring. Selecting climate models on the basis of multiple criteria can lead to more informative projections and allow an explicit exploration of uncertainty.

Fire simulation of pool fire with effects of a ventilation controlled compartment by using a fire model, CFAST

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hattori, Yasuo; Suto, Hitoshi; Shirai, Koji; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Matsuyama, Ken

2015-01-01

The basic performance for numerical analysis of fire parameters in a compartment by using a zone model, CFAST (Consolidated model of Fire growth And Smoke Transport), which has been widely applied for fire protection design of buildings, was examined. Special attentions were paid to the effects of compartment geometry under poor ventilation conditions with mechanical systems. The simulations were carried out under conditions corresponding to previous experiments, in which fire parameters have been precisely measured. The comparison between numerical simulations and experiments indicated that the CFAST principally has a capability to represent the time-histories of air-temperature in the high air-temperature layer generated in the vicinity of ceiling of the compartment, by applying the proper boundary conditions. These results suggest that numerical analysis for time-series of air temperature and smoke concentration in compartments must be a powerful tool for discussion on validity of fire protection schemes. (author)

Modeling regional-scale wildland fire emissions with the wildland fire emissions information system

Science.gov (United States)

Nancy H.F. French; Donald McKenzie; Tyler Erickson; Benjamin Koziol; Michael Billmire; K. Endsley; Naomi K.Y. Scheinerman; Liza Jenkins; Mary E. Miller; Roger Ottmar; Susan Prichard

2014-01-01

As carbon modeling tools become more comprehensive, spatial data are needed to improve quantitative maps of carbon emissions from fire. The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS) provides mapped estimates of carbon emissions from historical forest fires in the United States through a web browser. WFEIS improves access to data and provides a consistent...

Evaluation Logic of Main Control Board Fire Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Lim, Ho Gon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

The main control board (MCB) is defined as the collection of control panels inside the main control room (MCR) of a nuclear power plant (NPP). As the MCB has the control and instrumentation circuits of redundant trains for almost all plant systems, small fires within the control panels may be detrimental to the safe shutdown capability. A big fire affecting many panels in the MCB can cause a forced MCR abandonment of the operators as well as function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel electrically and physically independent from the MCR. Because the MCB consist of many electrical panels, it may have internal barriers between them to prevent a fire from spreading from its origin to neighboring locations. However, most MCBs of domestic NPPs do not have internal barriers within them. If the MCB cabinets are not separated by a double wall with an air gap, the fire propagation of an MCB panel fire cannot be ruled out. Recently, Joglar et al. proposed a new evaluation logic for the MCB panel fires and mentioned that an MCB fire can be divided into propagation and non-propagating fires for abandonment and non-abandonment fire scenarios. However, they did not present the details on the fire modeling approaches and probability formulas for the fire scenarios. In this paper, a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire is proposed to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of the fire modeling approaches. This paper proposed a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of fire modeling approaches.

A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times

Science.gov (United States)

Eric L. Smith

1987-01-01

Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...

An Integrated Model for Identifying Linkages Between the Management of Fuel Treatments, Fire and Ecosystem Services

Science.gov (United States)

Bart, R. R.; Anderson, S.; Moritz, M.; Plantinga, A.; Tague, C.

2015-12-01

Vegetation fuel treatments (e.g. thinning, prescribed burning) are a frequent tool for managing fire-prone landscapes. However, predicting how fuel treatments may affect future wildfire risk and associated ecosystem services, such as forest water availability and streamflow, remains a challenge. This challenge is in part due to the large range of conditions under which fuel treatments may be implemented, as response is likely to vary with species type, rates of vegetation regrowth, meteorological conditions and physiographic properties of the treated site. It is also due to insufficient understanding of how social factors such as political pressure, public demands and economic constraints affect fuel management decisions. To examine the feedbacks between ecological and social dimensions of fuel treatments, we present an integrated model that links a biophysical model that simulates vegetation and hydrology (RHESSys), a fire spread model (WMFire) and an empirical fuel treatment model that accounts for agency decision-making. We use this model to investigate how management decisions affect landscape fuel loads, which in turn affect fire severity and ecosystem services, which feedback to management decisions on fuel treatments. We hypothesize that this latter effect will be driven by salience theory, which predicts that fuel treatments are more likely to occur following major wildfire events. The integrated model provides a flexible framework for answering novel questions about fuel treatments that span social and ecological domains, areas that have previously been treated separately.

Tectonic microplates in a wax model of sea-floor spreading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katz, Richard F; Ragnarsson, Rolf; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2005-01-01

Rotating, growing microplates are observed in a wax analogue model of sea-floor spreading. Wax microplates are kinematically similar to sea-floor tectonic microplates in terms of spreading rate and growth rate. Furthermore, their spiral pseudofault geometry is quantitatively consistent with Schouten's oceanic microplate model. These results suggest that Schouten's edge-driven microplate model captures the kinematics of tectonic microplate evolution on Earth. Based on the wax observations, a theory for the nucleation of overlapping spreading centres, the precursors of tectonic microplates, is developed

Dynamical Behaviors of Rumor Spreading Model with Control Measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xia-Xia Zhao

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Rumor has no basis in fact and flies around. And in general, it is propagated for a certain motivation, either for business, economy, or pleasure. It is found that the web does expose us to more rumor and increase the speed of the rumors spread. Corresponding to these new ways of spreading, the government should carry out some measures, such as issuing message by media, punishing the principal spreader, and enhancing management of the internet. In order to assess these measures, dynamical models without and with control measures are established. Firstly, for two models, equilibria and the basic reproduction number of models are discussed. More importantly, numerical simulation is implemented to assess control measures of rumor spread between individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individuals. Finally, it is found that the amount of message released by government has the greatest influence on the rumor spread. The reliability of government and the cognizance ability of the public are more important. Besides that, monitoring the internet to prevent the spread of rumor is more important than deleting messages in media which already existed. Moreover, when the minority of people are punished, the control effect is obvious.

Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Russell A. Parsons; William E. Mell; Peter McCauley

2011-01-01

Crownfire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (...

FireStem2D — A two-dimensional heat transfer model for simulating tree stem injury in fires

Science.gov (United States)

Efthalia K. Chatziefstratiou; Gil Bohrer; Anthony S. Bova; Ravishankar Subramanian; Renato P.M. Frasson; Amy Scherzer; Bret W. Butler; Matthew B. Dickinson

2013-01-01

FireStem2D, a software tool for predicting tree stem heating and injury in forest fires, is a physically-based, two-dimensional model of stem thermodynamics that results from heating at the bark surface. It builds on an earlier one-dimensional model (FireStem) and provides improved capabilities for predicting fire-induced mortality and injury before a fire occurs by...

Physical model for membrane protrusions during spreading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chamaraux, F; Ali, O; Fourcade, B; Keller, S; Bruckert, F

2008-01-01

During cell spreading onto a substrate, the kinetics of the contact area is an observable quantity. This paper is concerned with a physical approach to modeling this process in the case of ameboid motility where the membrane detaches itself from the underlying cytoskeleton at the leading edge. The physical model we propose is based on previous reports which highlight that membrane tension regulates cell spreading. Using a phenomenological feedback loop to mimic stress-dependent biochemistry, we show that the actin polymerization rate can be coupled to the stress which builds up at the margin of the contact area between the cell and the substrate. In the limit of small variation of membrane tension, we show that the actin polymerization rate can be written in a closed form. Our analysis defines characteristic lengths which depend on elastic properties of the membrane–cytoskeleton complex, such as the membrane–cytoskeleton interaction, and on molecular parameters, the rate of actin polymerization. We discuss our model in the case of axi-symmetric and non-axi-symmetric spreading and we compute the characteristic time scales as a function of fundamental elastic constants such as the strength of membrane–cytoskeleton adherence

Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.

2017-09-01

Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.

Modeling fire susceptibility to delineate wildland-urban interface for municipal-scale fire risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitman, Ellen; Rapaport, Eric; Sherren, Kate

2013-12-01

The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the region where development meets and intermingles with wildlands. The WUI has an elevated fire risk due to the proximity of development and residents to wildlands with natural wildfire regimes. Existing methods of delineating WUI are typically applied over a large region, use proxies for risk, and do not consider site-specific fire hazard drivers. While these models are appropriate for federal and provincial risk management, municipal managers require models intended for smaller regions. The model developed here uses the Burn-P3 fire behavior model to model WUI from local fire susceptibility (FS) in two study communities. Forest fuel code (FFC) maps for the study communities were modified using remote sensing data to produce detailed forest edges, including ladder fuels, update data currency, and add buildings and roads. The modified FFC maps used in Burn-P3 produced bimodal FS distributions for each community. The WUI in these communities was delineated as areas within community bounds where FS was greater than or equal to -1 SD from the mean FS value ([Formula: see text]), which fell in the trough of the bimodal distribution. The WUI so delineated conformed to the definition of WUI. This model extends WUI modeling for broader risk management initiatives for municipal management of risk, as it (a) considers site-specific drivers of fire behavior; (b) models risk, represented by WUI, specific to a community; and, (c) does not use proxies for risk.

BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 5.0: Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Patricia L. Andrews

2009-01-01

This publication has been revised to reflect updates to version 4.0 of the BehavePlus software. It was originally published as the BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 4.0: Variables in July, 2008.The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a computer program based on mathematical models that describe wildland fire behavior and effects and the...

Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - Model intercomparison

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gloster, John; Jones, Andrew; Redington, Alison

2010-01-01

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route, with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics....... Atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to assess airborne spread of FMDV in a number of countries, including the UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, USA and Canada. These models were compared at a Workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office in 2008. Each modeller was provided...... with data relating to the 1967 outbreak of FMD in Hampshire, UK, and asked to predict the spread of FMDV by the airborne route. A number of key issues emerged from the Workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all models predicted similar directions for livestock at risk, with much...

Numerical modeling of fires on gas pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Yang; Jianbo Lai; Lu Liu

2011-01-01

When natural gas is released through a hole on a high-pressure pipeline, it disperses in the atmosphere as a jet. A jet fire will occur when the leaked gas meets an ignition source. To estimate the dangerous area, the shape and size of the fire must be known. The evolution of the jet fire in air is predicted by using a finite-volume procedure to solve the flow equations. The model is three-dimensional, elliptic and calculated by using a compressibility corrected version of the k - ξ turbulence model, and also includes a probability density function/laminar flamelet model of turbulent non-premixed combustion process. Radiation heat transfer is described using an adaptive version of the discrete transfer method. The model is compared with the experiments about a horizontal jet fire in a wind tunnel in the literature with success. The influence of wind and jet velocity on the fire shape has been investigated. And a correlation based on numerical results for predicting the stoichiometric flame length is proposed. - Research highlights: → We developed a model to predict the evolution of turbulent jet diffusion flames. → Measurements of temperature distributions match well with the numerical predictions. → A correlation has been proposed to predict the stoichiometric flame length. → Buoyancy effects are higher in the numerical results. → The radiative heat loss is bigger in the experimental results.

Large urban fire environment: trends and model city predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larson, D.A.; Small, R.D.

1983-01-01

The urban fire environment that would result from a megaton-yield nuclear weapon burst is considered. The dependence of temperatures and velocities on fire size, burning intensity, turbulence, and radiation is explored, and specific calculations for three model urban areas are presented. In all cases, high velocity fire winds are predicted. The model-city results show the influence of building density and urban sprawl on the fire environment. Additional calculations consider large-area fires with the burning intensity reduced in a blast-damaged urban center

Classifying and comparing spatial models of fire dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan

2007-01-01

Wildland fire is a significant disturbance in many ecosystems worldwide and the interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans has major effects on vegetation dynamics, ecosystem carbon budgets, and patterns of biodiversity. Landscape-Fire-Succession Models (LFSMs) that simulate the linked processes of fire and vegetation development in a spatial...

Fire behaviour - A preliminary study. | W.S.W. | African Journal of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Fire behaviour - A preliminary study. ... be taken cognisance of in any future research on fire in relation to vegetation. Keywords: behaviour; botany; environmental conditions; fire; fire behaviour; fire ecology; fires; grass; grasses; management; rate of spread; recovery; south africa; vegetation; veld; veld management; yield ...

Parametric analysis of fire model CFAST

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Y. H.; Yang, J. Y.; Kim, J. H.

2004-01-01

This paper describes the pump room fire of the nuclear power plant using CFAST fire modeling code developed by NIST. It is determined by the constrained or unconstrained fire, Lower Oxygen Limit (LOL), Radiative Fraction (RF), and the times to open doors, which are the input parameters of CAFST. According to the results, pump room fire is ventilation-controlled fire, so it is adequate that the value of LOL is 10% which is also the default value. It is appeared that the RF does not change the temperature of the upper gas layer. But the level of opening of the penetrating area and the times to opening it have an effect on the temperature of the upper layer, so it is determined that the results of it should be carefully analyzed

Fire PRA requantification studies. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parkinson, W.

1993-03-01

This report describes the requantification of two existing fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) using a fire PRA method and data that are being developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two existing studies are the Seabrook Station Probabilistic Safety Assessment that was made in 1983 and the 1989 NUREG-1150 analysis of the Peach Bottom Plant. Except for the fire methods and data, the original assumptions were used. The results from the requantification show that there were excessive conservatisms in the original studies. The principal reason for a hundredfold reduction in the Peach Bottom core- damage frequency is the determination that no electrical cabinet fire in a switchgear room would damage both offsite power feeds. Past studies often overestimated the heat release from electrical cabinet fires. EPRI's electrical cabinet heat release rates are based on tests that were conducted for Sandia's fire research program. The rates are supported by the experience in the EPRI Fire Events Database for U.S. nuclear plants. Test data and fire event experience also removed excessive conservatisms in the Peach Bottom control and cable spreading rooms, and the Seabrook primary component cooling pump, turbine building relay and cable spreading rooms. The EPRI fire PRA method and data will show that there are excessive conservatisms in studies that were made for many plants and can benefit them accordingly

Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

Stability Analysis Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered (SEIR) Model for Spread Model for Spread of Dengue Fever in Medan

Science.gov (United States)

Side, Syafruddin; Molliq Rangkuti, Yulita; Gerhana Pane, Dian; Setia Sinaga, Marlina

2018-01-01

Dengue fever is endemic disease which spread through vector, Aedes Aegypty. This disease is found more than 100 countries, such as, United State, Africa as well Asia, especially in country that have tropic climate. Mathematical modeling in this paper, discusses the speed of the spread of dengue fever. The model adopting divided over four classes, such as Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I) and Recovered (R). SEIR model further analyzed to detect the re-breeding value based on the number reported case by dengue in Medan city. Analysis of the stability of the system in this study is asymptotically stable indicating a case of endemic and unstable that show cases the endemic cases. Simulation on the mathematical model of SEIR showed that require a very long time to produce infected humans will be free of dengue virus infection. This happens because of dengue virus infection that occurs continuously between human and vector populations.

Integrating remote sensing and terrain data in forest fire modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Medler, Michael Johns

Forest fire policies are changing. Managers now face conflicting imperatives to re-establish pre-suppression fire regimes, while simultaneously preventing resource destruction. They must, therefore, understand the spatial patterns of fires. Geographers can facilitate this understanding by developing new techniques for mapping fire behavior. This dissertation develops such techniques for mapping recent fires and using these maps to calibrate models of potential fire hazards. In so doing, it features techniques that strive to address the inherent complexity of modeling the combinations of variables found in most ecological systems. Image processing techniques were used to stratify the elements of terrain, slope, elevation, and aspect. These stratification images were used to assure sample placement considered the role of terrain in fire behavior. Examination of multiple stratification images indicated samples were placed representatively across a controlled range of scales. The incorporation of terrain data also improved preliminary fire hazard classification accuracy by 40%, compared with remotely sensed data alone. A Kauth-Thomas transformation (KT) of pre-fire and post-fire Thematic Mapper (TM) remotely sensed data produced brightness, greenness, and wetness images. Image subtraction indicated fire induced change in brightness, greenness, and wetness. Field data guided a fuzzy classification of these change images. Because fuzzy classification can characterize a continuum of a phenomena where discrete classification may produce artificial borders, fuzzy classification was found to offer a range of fire severity information unavailable with discrete classification. These mapped fire patterns were used to calibrate a model of fire hazards for the entire mountain range. Pre-fire TM, and a digital elevation model produced a set of co-registered images. Training statistics were developed from 30 polygons associated with the previously mapped fire severity. Fuzzy

Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

Science.gov (United States)

Frederick W. Bratten

1982-01-01

A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...

Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research

Science.gov (United States)

Hantson, Srijn; Kloster, Silvia; Coughlan, Michael; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Vanniere, Boris; Bruecher, Tim; Kehrwald, Natalie; Magi, Brian I.

2016-01-01

Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems.Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages.A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from

Uncertainty quantification in Rothermel's Model using an efficient sampling method

Science.gov (United States)

Edwin Jimenez; M. Yousuff Hussaini; Scott L. Goodrick

2007-01-01

The purpose of the present work is to quantify parametric uncertainty in Rothermel’s wildland fire spread model (implemented in software such as BehavePlus3 and FARSITE), which is undoubtedly among the most widely used fire spread models in the United States. This model consists of a nonlinear system of equations that relates environmental variables (input parameter...

Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment: Coordination of a study to improve smoke modeling for fire operations within the United States

Science.gov (United States)

French, N. H. F.; Ottmar, R. D.; Brown, T. J.; Larkin, N. K.

2017-12-01

The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is an integrative research effort to identify and collect critical measurements to improve operational wildland fire and smoke prediction systems. FASMEE has two active phases and one suggested phase. Phase 1 is the analysis and planning process to assess the current state of fire-plume-smoke modeling and to determine the critical measurements required to evaluate and improve these operational fire and smoke models. As the major deliverable for Phase 1, a study plan has been completed that describes the measurement needs, field campaigns, and command, safety and air space de-confliction plans necessary to complete the FASMEE project. Phase 2 is a set of field campaigns to collect data during 2019-2022. Future Improvements would be a set of analyses and model improvements based on the data collected within Phase 2 that is dependent on identifying future funding sources. In this presentation, we will review the FASMEE Study Plan and detailed measurements and conditions expected for the four to five proposed research burns. The recommended measurements during Phase 2 span the four interrelated disciplines of FASMEE: fuels and consumption, fire behavior and energy, plume dynamics and meteorology, and smoke emissions, chemistry, and transport. Fuel type, condition, and consumption during wildland fire relates to several fire impacts including radiative heating, which provides the energy that drives fire dynamics. Local-scale meteorology is an important factor which relates to atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, and transport. Plume dynamics provide the connection between fire behavior and far-field smoke dispersion, because it determines the vertical distribution of the emissions. Guided by the data needs and science questions generated during Phase 1, three wildland fire campaigns were selected. These included the western wildfire campaign (rapid deployment aimed at western wildfires supporting NOAA, NASA, and NSF

Relationships between annual plant productivity, nitrogen deposition and fire size in low-elevation California desert scrub

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, Leela E.; Matchett, John R.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Johns, Robert; Minnich, Richard A.; Allen, Edith B.

2014-01-01

Although precipitation is correlated with fire size in desert ecosystems and is typically used as an indirect surrogate for fine fuel load, a direct link between fine fuel biomass and fire size has not been established. In addition, nitrogen (N) deposition can affect fire risk through its fertilisation effect on fine fuel production. In this study, we examine the relationships between fire size and precipitation, N deposition and biomass with emphasis on identifying biomass and N deposition thresholds associated with fire spreading across the landscape. We used a 28-year fire record of 582 burns from low-elevation desert scrub to evaluate the relationship of precipitation, N deposition and biomass with the distribution of fire sizes using quantile regression. We found that models using annual biomass have similar predictive ability to those using precipitation and N deposition at the lower to intermediate portions of the fire size distribution. No distinct biomass threshold was found, although within the 99th percentile of the distribution fire size increased with greater than 125 g m–2 of winter fine fuel production. The study did not produce an N deposition threshold, but did validate the value of 125 g m–2 of fine fuel for spread of fires.

Modelling methods for co-fired pulverised fuel furnaces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

L. Ma; M. Gharebaghi; R. Porter; M. Pourkashanian; J.M. Jones; A. Williams [University of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom). Energy and Resources Research Institute

2009-12-15

Co-firing of biomass and coal can be beneficial in reducing the carbon footprint of energy production. Accurate modelling of co-fired furnaces is essential to discover potential problems that may occur during biomass firing and to mitigate potential negative effects of biomass fuels, including lower efficiency due to lower burnout and NOx formation issues. Existing coal combustion models should be modified to increase reliability of predictions for biomass, including factors such as increased drag due to non-spherical particle sizes and accounting for organic compounds and the effects they have on NOx emission. Detailed biomass co-firing models have been developed and tested for a range of biomass fuels and show promising results. 32 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayaz Hyder

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

2013-01-01

Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

Mathematical modeling of agricultural fires beneath high voltage transmission lines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Zohri, Emad H.; Shafey, Hamdy M.; Abdel-Salam, M.; Ahmed, A.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a mathematical model for agricultural fires based on a multi-phase formulation. The model includes dehydration and pyrolysis of agricultural fuel and pyrolysis products. The model considers a homogeneous distribution of the agricultural solid fuel particles, interacting with the gas flow via source terms. These terms include: drag forces, production of water vapour and pyrolysis products, radiative and convective heat exchange. A multi-phase radiative transfer equation for absorbing-emitting medium is considered to account for the radiative heat exchange between the gas and solid phases of the fire. The main outputs of the present model are most important to study the influence of agricultural fire occurring beneath high voltage transmission lines. The agricultural fire causes a flashover due to the ambient temperature rise and soot accumulation on the insulator of these transmission lines. Numerical results of the present model are obtained for flat grassland fires to study the effects of wind velocity, solid fuel moisture content and ignition length on some selected fire outputs. These outputs include the temperature, velocity, soot volume fraction fields of the gas phase, together with fire propagation rate and flame geometry. The numerical results are compared to the available experimental work in the literature. -- Research highlights: → The model is sensitive to the initial condition of the ignition length affecting the fire propagation rate and width. → The model predicts the effects of both the wind velocity and the fuel moisture content on fire propagation rate, in agreement with the available experimental work in the literature. → The model shows that both the wind velocity and the fuel moisture content are important factors affecting the fire plume thickness, location, and inclination. → The model is able to visualize the flame geometry through tracing radiative heat rates exceeding a threshold value for flame visibility (60 k

Weather, fuels, and topography impede wildland fire spread in western US landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Lisa Holsinger; Sean A. Parks; Carol Miller

2016-01-01

As wildland fire activity continues to surge across the western US, it is increasingly important that we understand and quantify the environmental drivers of fire and how they vary across ecosystems. At daily to annual timescales, weather, fuels, and topography are known to influence characteristics such as area burned and fire severity. An understudied facet...

Spatial controls of occurrence and spread of wildfires in the Missouri Ozark Highlands

Science.gov (United States)

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley

2008-01-01

Understanding spatial controls on wildfires is important when designing adaptive fire management plans and optimizing fuel treatment locations on a forest landscape. Previous research about this topic focused primarily on spatial controls for fire origin locations alone. Fire spread and behavior were largely overlooked. This paper contrasts the relative importance of...

The role of the fire dampers in the event of fire in a nuclear facility. Selection criteria for devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savornin, J.; Laborde, J.C.

1989-10-01

In nuclear facilities, where unacceptable quantities of radioactive aerosols could be spread in the event of a fire, the ventilation system must be designed so that an underpressure is maintained under such circumstances. This is the reason why the extracting ventilation of the room in which the fire has broken out has generally to be kept going as long as possible. This prevents smoke and radioactive aerosols from spreading to accessways and adjacent rooms. Consequently, the various devices of the ventilation network need to have high fire resistance. Fire dampers can be applied to exhaust air to delay the heat build-up of a major fire. Specialized qualification testing is required for these dampers. The criteria we have used as a basis for specifying the required qualities of installations are defined. The tests that have been performed, or are now in progress, are described. The results obtained so far are given. Devices and arrangements are suggested

Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system – Part 1: Improved global fire modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

OpenAIRE

F. Li; S. Levis; D. S. Ward

2013-01-01

Modeling fire as an integral part of an Earth system model (ESM) is vital for quantifying and understanding fire–climate–vegetation interactions on a global scale and from an Earth system perspective. In this study, we introduce to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) the new global fire parameterization proposed by Li et al. (2012a, b), now with a more realistic representation of the anthropogenic impacts on fires, with a parameterization of peat fires, and with other minor modifications....

One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalie Marie Kehrwald

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate. The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1 and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

Quantitative analysis of forest fire extinction efficiency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel E. Castillo-Soto

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: Evaluate the economic extinction efficiency of forest fires, based on the study of fire combat undertaken by aerial and terrestrial means. Area of study, materials and methods: Approximately 112,000 hectares in Chile. Records of 5,876 forest fires that occurred between 1998 and 2009 were analyzed. The area further provides a validation sector for results, by incorporating databases for the years 2010 and 2012. The criteria used for measuring extinction efficiency were economic value of forestry resources, Contraction Factor analysis and definition of the extinction costs function. Main results: It is possible to establish a relationship between burnt area, extinction costs and economic losses. The method proposed may be used and adapted to other fire situations, requiring unit costs for aerial and terrestrial operations, economic value of the property to be protected and speed attributes of fire spread in free advance. Research highlights: The determination of extinction efficiency in containment works of forest fires and potential projection of losses, different types of plant fuel and local conditions favoring the spread of fire broaden the admissible ranges of a, φ and Ce considerably.

Evaluation of a post-fire tree mortality model for western US conifers

Science.gov (United States)

Sharon M. Hood; Charles W McHugh; Kevin C. Ryan; Elizabeth Reinhardt; Sheri L. Smith

2007-01-01

Accurately predicting fire-caused mortality is essential to developing prescribed fire burn plans and post-fire salvage marking guidelines. The mortality model included in the commonly used USA fire behaviour and effects models, the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), BehavePlus, and the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS), has not...

A spread willingness computing-based information dissemination model.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Haojing; Cui, Zhiming; Zhang, Shukui

2014-01-01

This paper constructs a kind of spread willingness computing based on information dissemination model for social network. The model takes into account the impact of node degree and dissemination mechanism, combined with the complex network theory and dynamics of infectious diseases, and further establishes the dynamical evolution equations. Equations characterize the evolutionary relationship between different types of nodes with time. The spread willingness computing contains three factors which have impact on user's spread behavior: strength of the relationship between the nodes, views identity, and frequency of contact. Simulation results show that different degrees of nodes show the same trend in the network, and even if the degree of node is very small, there is likelihood of a large area of information dissemination. The weaker the relationship between nodes, the higher probability of views selection and the higher the frequency of contact with information so that information spreads rapidly and leads to a wide range of dissemination. As the dissemination probability and immune probability change, the speed of information dissemination is also changing accordingly. The studies meet social networking features and can help to master the behavior of users and understand and analyze characteristics of information dissemination in social network.

Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

2015-01-01

This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

Spatial distribution of emissions to air - the SPREAD model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plejdrup, M S; Gyldenkaerne, S

2011-04-15

The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, completes the annual national emission inventories for greenhouse gases and air pollutants according to Denmark's obligations under international conventions, e.g. the climate convention, UNFCCC and the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution, CLRTAP. NERI has developed a model to distribute emissions from the national emission inventories on a 1x1 km grid covering the Danish land and sea territory. The new spatial high resolution distribution model for emissions to air (SPREAD) has been developed according to the requirements for reporting of gridded emissions to CLRTAP. Spatial emission data is e.g. used as input for air quality modelling, which again serves as input for assessment and evaluation of health effects. For these purposes distributions with higher spatial resolution have been requested. Previously, a distribution on the 17x17 km EMEP grid has been set up and used in research projects combined with detailed distributions for a few sectors or sub-sectors e.g. a distribution for emissions from road traffic on 1x1 km resolution. SPREAD is developed to generate improved spatial emission data for e.g. air quality modelling in exposure studies. SPREAD includes emission distributions for each sector in the Danish inventory system; stationary combustion, mobile sources, fugitive emissions from fuels, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture and waste. This model enables generation of distributions for single sectors and for a number of sub-sectors and single sources as well. This report documents the methodologies in this first version of SPREAD and presents selected results. Further, a number of potential improvements for later versions of SPREAD are addressed and discussed. (Author)

Term structure of sovereign spreads: a contingent claim model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katia Rocha

2007-12-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a simple structural model to estimate the termstructure and the implied default probability of a selected group of emerging countries, which account for 54% of the JPMorgan EMBIG index on average for the period 2000-2005. The real exchange rate dynamic, modeled as a pure diffusion process, is assumed to trigger default. The calibrated model generates sovereign spread curves consistent to market data. The results suggest that the market is systematically overpricing spreads for Brazil in 100 basis points, whereas for Mexico, Russia and Turkey the model is able to reproduce the market behavior.Este trabalho propõe um modelo estrutural para estimar a estrutura a termo e a probabilidade implícita de default de países emergentes que representam, em média, 54% do índice EMBIG do JPMorgan no período de 2000-2005. A taxa de câmbio real, modelada como um processo de difusão simples, é considerada como indicativa de default. O modelo calibrado gera a estrutura a termo dos spreads consistente com dados de mercado, indicando que o mercado sistematicamente sobre-estima os spreads para o Brasil em 100 pontos base na média, enquanto para México, Rússia e Turquia reproduz o comportamento do mercado.

National and international standards and recommendations on fire protection and fire safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berg, H.P.

2007-01-01

Experience feedback from events in nuclear facilities worldwide has shown that fire can represent a safety significant hazard. Thus, the primary objectives of fire protection programmes are to minimize both the probability of occurrence and the consequences of a fire. The regulator body expects that the licensees justify their arrangements for identifying how fires can occur and spread, assess the vulnerability of plant equipment and structures, determine how the safe operation of a plant is affected, and introduce measures to prevent a fire hazard from developing and propagating as well as to mitigate its effects in case the fire cannot be prevented. For that purpose usually a comprehensive regulatory framework for fire protection has been elaborated, based on national industrial regulations, nuclear specific regulations as well as international recommendations or requirements. Examples of such national and international standards and recommendations on fire protection and fire safety assessment as well as ongoing activities in this field are described. (orig.)

Large Scale Experiments on Spacecraft Fire Safety

Science.gov (United States)

Urban, David; Ruff, Gary A.; Minster, Olivier; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; Tien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Legros, Guillaume; Eigenbrod, Christian; Smirnov, Nickolay; Fujita, Osamu;

Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

Science.gov (United States)

Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

2017-05-05

An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Impact assessment of the forest fires on Oarai Research and Development Center Waste Treatment Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimomura, Yusuke; Kitamura, Ryoichi; Hanari, Akira; Sato, Isamu

2016-03-01

In response to new standards for regulating waste treatment facility ('new regulatory standards'; December 18, 2013 enforcement), it was carried out impact assessment of forest fires on the Waste Treatment Facility existed in Oarai Research and Development Center of Japan Atomic Energy Agency. At first, a fire spread scenario of forest fires was assumed. The intensity of forest fires was evaluated from field surveys, forest fire evaluation models and so on. As models of forest fire intensity evaluation, Rothermel Model and Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System were used. Impact assessment of radiant heat to the facility was carried out, and temperature change of outer walls for the assumed forest fires was estimated. The outer wall temperature of facility was estimated around 160degC at the maximum, it was revealed that it doesn't reach allowable temperature limit. Consequently, it doesn't influence the strength of concrete. In addition, a probability of fire breach was estimated to be about 20%. This report illustrates an example of evaluation of forest fires for the new regulatory standards through impact assessment of the forest fires on the Waste Treatment Facility. (author)

Fire and the Design of Educational Buildings. Building Bulletin 7. Sixth Edition.

Science.gov (United States)

Department of Education and Science, London (England).

This bulletin offers guidance on English school premises regulations applying to safety protection against fires in the following general areas: means of escape in case of fire; precautionary measures to prevent fire; fire warning systems and fire fighting; fire spreading speed; structures and materials resistant to fires; and damage control. It…

An agent-based computational model of the spread of tuberculosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Espíndola, Aquino L; Bauch, Chris T; Troca Cabella, Brenno C; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

2011-01-01

In this work we propose an alternative model of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) and the emergence of drug resistance due to the treatment with antibiotics. We implement the simulations by an agent-based model computational approach where the spatial structure is taken into account. The spread of tuberculosis occurs according to probabilities defined by the interactions among individuals. The model was validated by reproducing results already known from the literature in which different treatment regimes yield the emergence of drug resistance. The different patterns of TB spread can be visualized at any time of the system evolution. The implementation details as well as some results of this alternative approach are discussed

Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

2007-10-01

The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

Fire test of DOT 7A Boxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jensen, J.D.

1979-05-01

The primary objective of conducting the full-scale fire tests of the DOT (Department of Transportation) 7A FRP Boxes was to provide information to assist in quantifying the fire hazard of the storage located at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC), and to learn if changing the storage array will decrease the fire risk. Also, the level of fire fighting and fire protection required to maintain the risk at the RWMC within acceptable DOE guidelines was investigated. Two full-scale fire tests were conducted at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) in June 1978, using the DOE 7A FRP Plywood Storage Containers. The fire tests showed that when subjected to a substantial ignition source, the boxes will propagate fire as long as no fire-suppression measures are taken. Fire will breach the boxes and spread the radioactive contaminated waste if it is not extinguished. As the fire progresses, additional boxes will become involved, and eventually the entire storage array will ignite. It is recommended that the use of DOT 7A Boxes be discontinued and replaced with noncombustible storage containers. In the event this is not practicable, guidance recommendations are presented to minimize the large fire loss potential. It is also recommended that an investigation be conducted into the number of boxes that can be destroyed and still maintain a safe environment for employees and the public. This investigation should include how far radioactive contamination will spread, what cleanup will be required, anticipated exposure of the people within the area, and the public impact of such a fire

BUSHFIRE BEHAVIOUR MODELLING USING FARSITE WITH GIS INTEGRATION FOR THE MITCHAM HILLS, SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SAAD ALSHARRAH

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Bushfire behaviour modelling using FARSITE with GIS integration for the Mitcham Hills, South Australia. Bushfires are now becoming of serious concern as they can have devastating effects on the natural and human ecosystems. An important element of bushfires is fire behaviour. Fire behaviour describes the mode in which a fire reacts to the influences of fuel, weather, topography and fire fighting. In order to understand and predict fire growth and the behaviour of fires, decision makers use fire models to simulate fire behaviour. Fire behaviour modelling can assist forest managers and environmental decision makers in the understanding of how a fire will behave with the influences of environmental factors such as fuels, weather and topography. This study models (spatially and temporally the behaviour of a hypothetical fire for the Mitcham Hills in South Australia using FARSITE (Fire Area Simulator. FARSITE, a two-dimensional deterministic model, takes into account the factors that influence fire behaviour (fuels, weather and topography and simulates the spread and behaviours of fires based on the parameters inputted. Geographic Information Systems (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS techniques were utilised for data preparation and the mapping of parameters that are needed and welcomed by FARSITE. The results are a simulation of spread of fire, fireline intensity, flame length and time of arrival for the area of interest. The simulation confirmed that it can be used for predicting how a fire will spread and how long it will take which can be very beneficial for fire suppression and control and risk assessment.

Laboratory modeling of aspects of large fires

Science.gov (United States)

Carrier, G. F.; Fendell, F. E.; Fleeter, R. D.; Gat, N.; Cohen, L. M.

1984-04-01

The design, construction, and use of a laboratory-scale combustion tunnel for simulating aspects of large-scale free-burning fires are described. The facility consists of an enclosed, rectangular-cross section (1.12 m wide x 1.27 m high) test section of about 5.6 m in length, fitted with large sidewall windows for viewing. A long upwind section permits smoothing (by screens and honeycombs) of a forced-convective flow, generated by a fan and adjustable in wind speed (up to a maximum speed of about 20 m/s prior to smoothing). Special provision is made for unconstrained ascent of a strongly buoyant plume, the duct over the test section being about 7 m in height. Also, a translatable test-section ceiling can be used to prevent jet-type spreading into the duct of the impressed flow; that is, the wind arriving at a site (say) half-way along the test section can be made (by ceiling movement) approximately the same as that at the leading edge of the test section with a fully open duct (fully retracted ceiling). Of particular interest here are the rate and structure of wind-aided flame spread streamwise along a uniform matrix of vertically oriented small fuel elements (such as toothpicks or coffee-strirrers), implanted in clay stratum on the test-section floor; this experiment is motivated by flame spread across strewn debris, such as may be anticipated in an urban environment after severe blast damage.

An information spreading model based on online social networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tao; He, Juanjuan; Wang, Xiaoxia

2018-01-01

Online social platforms are very popular in recent years. In addition to spreading information, users could review or collect information on online social platforms. According to the information spreading rules of online social network, a new information spreading model, namely IRCSS model, is proposed in this paper. It includes sharing mechanism, reviewing mechanism, collecting mechanism and stifling mechanism. Mean-field equations are derived to describe the dynamics of the IRCSS model. Moreover, the steady states of reviewers, collectors and stiflers and the effects of parameters on the peak values of reviewers, collectors and sharers are analyzed. Finally, numerical simulations are performed on different networks. Results show that collecting mechanism and reviewing mechanism, as well as the connectivity of the network, make information travel wider and faster, and compared to WS network and ER network, the speed of reviewing, sharing and collecting information is fastest on BA network.

Spatial distribution of emissions to air - the SPREAD model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plejdrup, M.S.; Gyldenkaerne, S.

2011-04-15

The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, completes the annual national emission inventories for greenhouse gases and air pollutants according to Denmark's obligations under international conventions, e.g. the climate convention, UNFCCC and the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution, CLRTAP. NERI has developed a model to distribute emissions from the national emission inventories on a 1x1 km grid covering the Danish land and sea territory. The new spatial high resolution distribution model for emissions to air (SPREAD) has been developed according to the requirements for reporting of gridded emissions to CLRTAP. Spatial emission data is e.g. used as input for air quality modelling, which again serves as input for assessment and evaluation of health effects. For these purposes distributions with higher spatial resolution have been requested. Previously, a distribution on the 17x17 km EMEP grid has been set up and used in research projects combined with detailed distributions for a few sectors or sub-sectors e.g. a distribution for emissions from road traffic on 1x1 km resolution. SPREAD is developed to generate improved spatial emission data for e.g. air quality modelling in exposure studies. SPREAD includes emission distributions for each sector in the Danish inventory system; stationary combustion, mobile sources, fugitive emissions from fuels, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture and waste. This model enables generation of distributions for single sectors and for a number of sub-sectors and single sources as well. This report documents the methodologies in this first version of SPREAD and presents selected results. Further, a number of potential improvements for later versions of SPREAD are addressed and discussed. (Author)

Rumor Spreading Model with Trust Mechanism in Complex Social Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ya-Qi; Yang, Xiao-Yuan; Han, Yi-Liang; Wang, Xu-An

2013-04-01

In this paper, to study rumor spreading, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model by introducing the trust mechanism. We derive mean-field equations that describe the dynamics of the SIR model on homogeneous networks and inhomogeneous networks. Then a steady-state analysis is conducted to investigate the critical threshold and the final size of the rumor spreading. We show that the introduction of trust mechanism reduces the final rumor size and the velocity of rumor spreading, but increases the critical thresholds on both networks. Moreover, the trust mechanism not only greatly reduces the maximum rumor influence, but also postpones the rumor terminal time, which provides us with more time to take measures to control the rumor spreading. The theoretical results are confirmed by sufficient numerical simulations.

Using cellular automata to simulate forest fire propagation in Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Freire, Joana; daCamara, Carlos

2017-04-01

evolution of the fire spread. We present and discuss the application of the CA model to the "Tavira wildfire" in which approximately 24,800ha were burned. The event took place in summer 2012, between July 18 and 21, and spread in the Tavira and São Brás de Alportel municipalities of Algarve, a province in the southern coast of Portugal. [1] DaCamara et. al. (2014), International Journal of Wildland Fire 23. [2] Amraoui et. al. (2013), Forest Ecology and Management 294. [3] Alexandridis et. al. (2008), Applied Mathematics and Computation 204.

Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

Science.gov (United States)

Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2017-12-01

Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees

Science.gov (United States)

Datta, Samik; Bull, James C.; Budge, Giles E.; Keeling, Matt J.

2013-01-01

We investigate the spread of American foulbrood (AFB), a disease caused by the bacterium Paenibacillus larvae, that affects bees and can be extremely damaging to beehives. Our dataset comes from an inspection period carried out during an AFB epidemic of honeybee colonies on the island of Jersey during the summer of 2010. The data include the number of hives of honeybees, location and owner of honeybee apiaries across the island. We use a spatial SIR model with an underlying owner network to simulate the epidemic and characterize the epidemic using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to determine model parameters and infection times (including undetected ‘occult’ infections). Likely methods of infection spread can be inferred from the analysis, with both distance- and owner-based transmissions being found to contribute to the spread of AFB. The results of the MCMC are corroborated by simulating the epidemic using a stochastic SIR model, resulting in aggregate levels of infection that are comparable to the data. We use this stochastic SIR model to simulate the impact of different control strategies on controlling the epidemic. It is found that earlier inspections result in smaller epidemics and a higher likelihood of AFB extinction. PMID:24026473

A Spread Willingness Computing-Based Information Dissemination Model

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Zhiming; Zhang, Shukui

2014-01-01

This paper constructs a kind of spread willingness computing based on information dissemination model for social network. The model takes into account the impact of node degree and dissemination mechanism, combined with the complex network theory and dynamics of infectious diseases, and further establishes the dynamical evolution equations. Equations characterize the evolutionary relationship between different types of nodes with time. The spread willingness computing contains three factors which have impact on user's spread behavior: strength of the relationship between the nodes, views identity, and frequency of contact. Simulation results show that different degrees of nodes show the same trend in the network, and even if the degree of node is very small, there is likelihood of a large area of information dissemination. The weaker the relationship between nodes, the higher probability of views selection and the higher the frequency of contact with information so that information spreads rapidly and leads to a wide range of dissemination. As the dissemination probability and immune probability change, the speed of information dissemination is also changing accordingly. The studies meet social networking features and can help to master the behavior of users and understand and analyze characteristics of information dissemination in social network. PMID:25110738

A Spread Willingness Computing-Based Information Dissemination Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haojing Huang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper constructs a kind of spread willingness computing based on information dissemination model for social network. The model takes into account the impact of node degree and dissemination mechanism, combined with the complex network theory and dynamics of infectious diseases, and further establishes the dynamical evolution equations. Equations characterize the evolutionary relationship between different types of nodes with time. The spread willingness computing contains three factors which have impact on user’s spread behavior: strength of the relationship between the nodes, views identity, and frequency of contact. Simulation results show that different degrees of nodes show the same trend in the network, and even if the degree of node is very small, there is likelihood of a large area of information dissemination. The weaker the relationship between nodes, the higher probability of views selection and the higher the frequency of contact with information so that information spreads rapidly and leads to a wide range of dissemination. As the dissemination probability and immune probability change, the speed of information dissemination is also changing accordingly. The studies meet social networking features and can help to master the behavior of users and understand and analyze characteristics of information dissemination in social network.

A lattice model for influenza spreading.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonella Liccardo

Full Text Available We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1 during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.

Experimental Benchmarking of Fire Modeling Simulations. Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greiner, Miles; Lopez, Carlos

2003-01-01

A series of large-scale fire tests were performed at Sandia National Laboratories to simulate a nuclear waste transport package under severe accident conditions. The test data were used to benchmark and adjust the Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) computer code. CAFE is a computational fluid dynamics fire model that accurately calculates the heat transfer from a large fire to a massive engulfed transport package. CAFE will be used in transport package design studies and risk analyses

Effect of Spacecraft Environmental Variables on the Flammability of Fire Resistant Fabrics

Science.gov (United States)

Osorio, A. F.; Fernandez-Pello, C.; Takahashi, S.; Rodriguez, J.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G.

2012-01-01

Fire resistant fabrics are used for firefighter, racecar drivers as well as astronaut suits. However, their fire resistant characteristics depend on the environment conditions and require study. Particularly important is the response of these fabrics to elevated oxygen concentration environments and radiant heat from a source such as an adjacent fire. In this work, experiments using two fire resistant fabrics were conducted to study the effect of oxygen concentration, external radiant flux and oxidizer flow velocity in concurrent flame spread. Results show that for a given fabric the minimum oxygen concentration for flame spread depends strongly on the magnitude of the external radiant flux. At increased oxygen concentrations the external radiant flux required for flame spread decreases. Oxidizer flow velocity influences the external radiant flux only when the convective heat flux from the flame has similar values to the external radiant flux. The results of this work provide further understanding of the flammability characteristics of fire resistant fabrics in environments similar to those of future spacecrafts.

Numerical Simulations for a Typical Train Fire in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. K. Chow

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Railway is the key transport means in China including the Mainland, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Consequent to so many big arson and accidental fires in the public transport systems including trains and buses, fire safety in passenger trains is a concern. Numerical simulations with Computational Fluid Dynamics on identified fire scenarios with typical train compartments in China will be reported in this paper. The heat release rate of the first ignited item was taken as the input parameter. The mass lost rate of fuel vapor of other combustibles was estimated to predict the resultant heat release rates by the combustion models in the software. Results on air flow, velocity vectors, temperature distribution, smoke layer height, and smoke spread patterns inside the train compartment were analyzed. The results are useful for working out appropriate fire safety measures for train vehicles and determining the design fire for subway stations and railway tunnels.

a Discrete Mathematical Model to Simulate Malware Spreading

Science.gov (United States)

Del Rey, A. Martin; Sánchez, G. Rodriguez

2012-10-01

With the advent and worldwide development of Internet, the study and control of malware spreading has become very important. In this sense, some mathematical models to simulate malware propagation have been proposed in the scientific literature, and usually they are based on differential equations exploiting the similarities with mathematical epidemiology. The great majority of these models study the behavior of a particular type of malware called computer worms; indeed, to the best of our knowledge, no model has been proposed to simulate the spreading of a computer virus (the traditional type of malware which differs from computer worms in several aspects). In this sense, the purpose of this work is to introduce a new mathematical model not based on continuous mathematics tools but on discrete ones, to analyze and study the epidemic behavior of computer virus. Specifically, cellular automata are used in order to design such model.

A seasonal copula mixture for hedging the clean spark spread with wind power futures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Troels Sønderby; Pircalabu, Anca; Høg, Esben

2018-01-01

The recently introduced German wind power futures have brought the opportunity to address the problem of volume risk in wind power generation directly. In this paper we study the hedging benefits of these instruments in the context of gas-fired power plants by employing a strategy that allows...... and the dependence structure, while being straightforward and easy to implement. Based on Monte Carlo simulations from the proposed model, the results indicate that significant benefits can be achieved by using wind power futures to hedge the spot clean spark spread. Moreover, a comparison study shows...... trading in the spot clean spark spread and wind power futures. To facilitate hedging decisions, we propose a time-varying copula mixture for the joint behavior of the spot clean spark spread and the daily wind index. The model describes the data surprisingly well, both in terms of the marginals...

Calculation of Fire Severity Factors and Fire Non-Suppression Probabilities For A DOE Facility Fire PRA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elicson, Tom; Harwood, Bentley; Lucek, Heather; Bouchard, Jim

2011-01-01

Over a 12 month period, a fire PRA was developed for a DOE facility using the NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC fire PRA methodology. The fire PRA modeling included calculation of fire severity factors (SFs) and fire non-suppression probabilities (PNS) for each safe shutdown (SSD) component considered in the fire PRA model. The SFs were developed by performing detailed fire modeling through a combination of CFAST fire zone model calculations and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). Component damage times and automatic fire suppression system actuation times calculated in the CFAST LHS analyses were then input to a time-dependent model of fire non-suppression probability. The fire non-suppression probability model is based on the modeling approach outlined in NUREG/CR-6850 and is supplemented with plant specific data. This paper presents the methodology used in the DOE facility fire PRA for modeling fire-induced SSD component failures and includes discussions of modeling techniques for: Development of time-dependent fire heat release rate profiles (required as input to CFAST), Calculation of fire severity factors based on CFAST detailed fire modeling, and Calculation of fire non-suppression probabilities.

Rumor Spreading Model with Trust Mechanism in Complex Social Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ya-Qi; Yang Xiao-Yuan; Han Yi-Liang; Wang Xu-An