WorldWideScience

Sample records for fire spread modelling

  1. Modelling of fire spread in car parks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noordijk, L.M.; Lemaire, A.D.

    2005-01-01

    Currently, design codes assume that in a car park fire at most 3-4 vehicles are on fire at the same time. Recent incidents in car parks have drawn international attention to such assumptions and have raised questions as to the fire spreading mechanism and the resulting fire load on the structure.

  2. Fire Spread Model for Old Towns Based on Cellular Automaton

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Nan; WENG Wenguo; MA Wei; NI Shunjiang; HUANG Quanyi; YUAN Hongyong

    2008-01-01

    Old towns like Lijiang have enormous historic,artistic,and architectural value.The buildings in such old towns are usually made of highly combustible materials,such as wood and grass.If a fire breaks out,it will spread to multiple buildings,so fire spreading and controlling in old towns need to be studied.This paper presents a fire spread model for old towns based on cellular automaton.The cellular automaton rules were set according to historical fire data in empirical formulas.The model also considered the effects of climate.The simulation results were visualized in a geography information system.An example of a fire spread in Lijiang was investigated with the results showing that this model provides a realistic tool for predicting fire spread in old towns.Fire brigades can use this tool to predict when and how a fire spreads to minimize the losses.

  3. Standard fire behavior fuel models: a comprehensive set for use with Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joe H. Scott; Robert E. Burgan

    2005-01-01

    This report describes a new set of standard fire behavior fuel models for use with Rothermel's surface fire spread model and the relationship of the new set to the original set of 13 fire behavior fuel models. To assist with transition to using the new fuel models, a fuel model selection guide, fuel model crosswalk, and set of fuel model photos are provided.

  4. Performance of fire behavior fuel models developed for the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Ziel; W. Matt Jolly

    2009-01-01

    In 2005, 40 new fire behavior fuel models were published for use with the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model. These new models are intended to augment the original 13 developed in 1972 and 1976. As a compiled set of quantitative fuel descriptions that serve as input to the Rothermel model, the selected fire behavior fuel model has always been critical to the resulting...

  5. Modelling the spreading of large-scale wildland fires

    CERN Document Server

    Drissi, Mohamed

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the present study is twofold. First, the last developments and validation results of a hybrid model designed to simulate fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes are presented. The model combines the features of a stochastic small-world network model with those of a deterministic semi-physical model of the interaction between burning and non-burning cells that strongly depends on local conditions of wind, topography, and vegetation. Radiation and convection from the flaming zone, and radiative heat loss to the ambient are considered in the preheating process of unburned cells. Second, the model is applied to an Australian grassland fire experiment as well as to a real fire that took place in Corsica in 2009. Predictions compare favorably to experiments in terms of rate of spread, area and shape of the burn. Finally, the sensitivity of the model outcomes (here the rate of spread) to six input parameters is studied using a two-level full factorial design.

  6. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  7. A review of wildland fire spread modelling, 1990-present 3: Mathematical analogues and simulation models

    CERN Document Server

    Sullivan, A L

    2007-01-01

    In recent years, advances in computational power and spatial data analysis (GIS, remote sensing, etc) have led to an increase in attempts to model the spread and behvaiour of wildland fires across the landscape. This series of review papers endeavours to critically and comprehensively review all types of surface fire spread models developed since 1990. This paper reviews models of a simulation or mathematical analogue nature. Most simulation models are implementations of existing empirical or quasi-empirical models and their primary function is to convert these generally one dimensional models to two dimensions and then propagate a fire perimeter across a modelled landscape. Mathematical analogue models are those that are based on some mathematical conceit (rather than a physical representation of fire spread) that coincidentally simulates the spread of fire. Other papers in the series review models of an physical or quasi-physical nature and empirical or quasi-empirical nature. Many models are extensions or ...

  8. Investigation of Fire Growth and Spread in a Model-Scale Railcar Using an Applied Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Ali Kazemipour; Mahyar Pourghasemi; Hossein Afshin; Bijan Farhanieh

    2016-01-01

    Fire is a potential hazard in public transportation facilities such as subways or road tunnels due to its contribution to high number of deaths. To provide an insight into fire development behavior in tunnels which can serve as the basis for emergency ventilation design, model-scale railcar fire is explored numerically in this research. Fire growth and its spread are investigated by analyzing the HRR curve as the representative of fire behavior in different stages. Fire developmen...

  9. A review of wildland fire spread modelling, 1990-present, 1: Physical and quasi-physical models

    CERN Document Server

    Sullivan, A L

    2007-01-01

    In recent years, advances in computational power and spatial data analysis (GIS, remote sensing, etc) have led to an increase in attempts to model the spread and behaviour of wildland fires across the landscape. This series of review papers endeavours to critically and comprehensively review all types of surface fire spread models developed since 1990. This paper reviews models of a physical or quasi-physical nature. These models are based on the fundamental chemistry and/or physics of combustion and fire spread. Other papers in the series review models of an empirical or quasi-empirical nature, and mathematical analogues and simulation models. Many models are extensions or refinements of models developed before 1990. Where this is the case, these models are also discussed but much less comprehensively.

  10. Investigation of Fire Growth and Spread in a Model-Scale Railcar Using an Applied Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Kazemipour

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Fire is a potential hazard in public transportation facilities such as subways or road tunnels due to its contribution to high number of deaths. To provide an insight into fire development behavior in tunnels which can serve as the basis for emergency ventilation design, model-scale railcar fire is explored numerically in this research. Fire growth and its spread are investigated by analyzing the HRR curve as the representative of fire behavior in different stages. Fire development has been predicted through a new approach using an Arrhenius-based pyrolysis model, established to predict the decomposition behavior of solid flammable materials exposed to heat flux. Using this approach, model-scale railcar fire curve is obtained and compared with experimental data. Reasonable agreement is achieved in two important stages of flashover and fully developed fire, confirming the accuracy of the presented approach. Moreover, effects of railcar material type, amount of available air, and surrounding are also discussed. Detailed illustrations of physical phenomena and flow structures have been provided and justified with experimental findings for better description of railcar fire behavior. The presented approach can be further used in other applications such as investigation of fire spread in a compartment, studying fire spread from a burning vehicle to another and reconstruction of fire incidents.

  11. A review of wildland fire spread modelling, 1990-present 2: Empirical and quasi-empirical models

    CERN Document Server

    Sullivan, A L

    2007-01-01

    In recent years, advances in computational power and spatial data analysis (GIS, remote sensing, etc) have led to an increase in attempts to model the spread and behaviour of wildland fires across the landscape. This series of review papers endeavours to critically and comprehensively review all types of surface fire spread models developed since 1990. This paper reviews models of an empirical or quasi-empirical nature. These models are based solely on the statistical analysis of experimentally obtained data with or without some physical framework for the basis of the relations. Other papers in the series review models of a physical or quasi-physical nature, and mathematical analogues and simulation models. The main relations of empirical models are that of wind speed and fuel moisture content with rate of forward spread. Comparisons are made of the different functional relationships selected by various authors for these variables.

  12. Selection of fire spread model for Russian fire behavior prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandra V. Volokitina; Kevin C. Ryan; Tatiana M. Sofronova; Mark A. Sofronov

    2010-01-01

    Mathematical modeling of fire behavior prediction is only possible if the models are supplied with an information database that provides spatially explicit input parameters for modeled area. Mathematical models can be of three kinds: 1) physical; 2) empirical; and 3) quasi-empirical (Sullivan, 2009). Physical models (Grishin, 1992) are of academic interest only because...

  13. Supporting FIRE-suppression strategies combining fire spread MODelling and SATellite data in an operational context in Portugal: the FIRE-MODSAT project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Benali, Akli; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Pereira, José M. C.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.

    2014-05-01

    Large wildfires are infrequent but account for the most severe environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts. In recent years Portugal has suffered the impact of major heat waves that fuelled records of burnt area exceeding 400.000ha and 300.000ha in 2003 and 2005, respectively. According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency and amplitude of summer heat waves over Iberia will very likely increase in the future. Therefore, most climate change studies point to an increase in the number and extent of wildfires. Thus, an increase in both wildfire impacts and fire suppression difficulties is expected. The spread of large wildfires results from a complex interaction between topography, meteorology and fuel properties. Wildfire spread models (e.g. FARSITE) are commonly used to simulate fire growth and behaviour and are an essential tool to understand their main drivers. Additionally, satellite active-fire data have been used to monitor the occurrence, extent, and spread of wildfires. Both satellite data and fire spread models provide different types of information about the spatial and temporal distribution of large wildfires and can potentially be used to support strategic decisions regarding fire suppression resource allocation. However, they have not been combined in a manner that fully exploits their potential and minimizes their limitations. A knowledge gap still exists in understanding how to minimize the impacts of large wildfires, leading to the following research question: What can we learn from past large wildfires in order to mitigate future fire impacts? FIRE-MODSAT is a one-year funded project by the Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology (FCT) that is founded on this research question, with the main goal of improving our understanding on the interactions between fire spread and its environmental drivers, to support fire management decisions in an operational context and generate valuable information to improve the efficiency of the

  14. Use of fire spread and hydrology models to target forest management on a municipal watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anurag Srivastava; William J. Elliot; Joan Wu

    2015-01-01

    A small town relies on a forested watershed for its water supply. The forest is at risk for a wildfire. To reduce this risk, some of the watershed will be thinned followed by a prescribed burn. This paper reports on a study to evaluate the impact of such watershed disturbances on water yield. To target management activities, a fire spread model was applied to the...

  15. Forest-fire models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

    2013-01-01

    For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

  16. A case study on fractal simulation of forest fire spread

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    This paper relates to the semi-empirical model based on fire field energy balance and the physical model based on land temperature,aiming to provide a practical way of describing fire spread.Fire spread is determined by the characteristics of combustible materials and the agency of meteorological factors and terrains.Combustible materials,such as surface area,have no featured scale,yet the process of forest fire spread contains the self-replicating feature,both of which contribute to the self-similarity of fire spread.Consequently,fire behavior can be described by fractal geometry.In this research,we select Wuchagou forest in Da Hinggan Mountains as the experimental site where a forest fire took place three years ago.The forest fire was detected on low-resolution NOAA-AVHRR images,and fire spread was simulated on high-resolution TM images as another attempt to merge information.Based on remote sensing and GIS,we adopted the method of limited spreading lumping (DLA) to describe growing phenomenon to simulate the dynamic process of fire spread and adjusting shape of the result of fire simulation by the scale rule.As a result,the simulated fire and the actual fire manifest the self-similarity in their spreading shapes as well as the quantitative similarity in their areas.

  17. Heat transfer and fire spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hal E. Anderson

    1969-01-01

    Experimental testing of a mathematical model showed that radiant heat transfer accounted for no more than 40% of total heat flux required to maintain rate of spread. A reasonable prediction of spread was possible by assuming a horizontal convective heat transfer coefficient when certain fuel and flame characteristics were known. Fuel particle size had a linear relation...

  18. On the need for a theory of wildland fire spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Jack D. Cohen; Sara S. McAllister; W. Matt Jolly

    2012-01-01

    We explore the basis of understanding wildland fire behaviour with the intention of stimulating curiosity and promoting fundamental investigations of fire spread problems that persist even in the presence of tremendous modelling advances. Internationally, many fire models have been developed based on a variety of assumptions and expressions for the fundamental heat...

  19. Fire spread predictions: Sweeping uncertainty under the rug.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benali, Akli; Sá, Ana C L; Ervilha, Ana R; Trigo, Ricardo M; Fernandes, Paulo M; Pereira, José M C

    2017-08-15

    Predicting fire spread and behavior correctly is crucial to minimize the dramatic consequences of wildfires. However, our capability of accurately predicting fire spread is still very limited, undermining the utility of such simulations to support decision-making. Improving fire spread predictions for fire management purposes, by using higher quality input data or enhanced models, can be expensive, unfeasible or even impossible. Fire managers would benefit from fast and inexpensive ways of improving their decision-making. In the present work, we focus on i) understanding if fire spread predictions can be improved through model parameter calibration based on information collected from a set of large historical wildfires in Portugal; and ii) understanding to what extent decreasing parametric uncertainty can counterbalance the impact of input data uncertainty. Our results obtained with the Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) modeling system show that fire spread predictions can be continuously improved by 'learning' from past wildfires. The uncertainty contained in the major input variables (wind speed and direction, ignition location and fuel models) can be 'swept under the rug' through the use of more appropriate parameter sets. The proposed framework has a large potential to improve future fire spread predictions, increasing their reliability and usefulness to support fire management and decision making processes, thus potentially reducing the negative impacts of wildfires. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A case study on fractal simulation of forest fire spread

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱启疆; 戎太宗; 孙睿

    2000-01-01

    This paper relates to the semi-empirical model based on fire field energy balance and the physical model based on land temperature, aiming to provide a practical way of describing fire spread. Fire spread is determined by the characteristics of combustible materials and the agency of meteorological factors and terrains. Combustible materials, such as surface area, have no featured scale, yet the process of forest fire spread contains the self-replicating feature, both of which contribute to the self-similarity of fire spread. Consequently, fire behavior can be described by fractal geometry. In this research, we select Wuchagou forest in Da Hinggan Mountains as the experimental site where a forest fire took place three years ago. The forest fire was detected on low-resolution NOAA-AVHRR images, and fire spread was simulated on high-resolution TM images as another attempt to merge information. Based on remote sensing and GIS, we adopted the method of limited spreading lumping (DLA) to describe growing phe

  1. Fire spread characteristics determined in the laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard C. Rothermel; Hal E. Anderson

    1966-01-01

    Fuel beds of ponderosa pine needles and white pine needles were burned under controlled environmental conditions to determine the effects of fuel moisture and windspeed upon the rate of fire spread. Empirical formulas are presented to show the effect of these parameters. A discussion of rate of spread and some simple experiments show how fuel may be preheated before...

  2. Reconstruction of fire spread within wildland fire events in Northern Eurasia from the MODIS active fire product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loboda, T. V.; Csiszar, I. A.

    2007-04-01

    fire activity in the area compared to vegetation zones. In addition, fire spread rates do not directly correlate with the intensity of a given fire season. FSR is also used to identify the points of ignition for individual fire events in spatio-temporal domain for fire danger and fire threat modeling. This approach presents another step towards the more complete characterization of fire events from remotely sensed data.

  3. The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Thonicke

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A process-based fire regime model (SPITFIRE has been developed, coupled with ecosystem dynamics in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to explore spatial and temporal patterns of fire regimes and the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace atmospheric constituents. The model estimates an average release of 2.24 Pg C yr−1 as CO2 from biomass burning during the 1980s and 1990s. Comparison with observed active fire counts shows that the model reproduces where fire occurs and can mimic broad geographic patterns in the peak fire season, although the predicted peak is 1–2 months late in some regions. Modelled fire season length is generally overestimated by about one month, but shows a realistic pattern of differences among biomes. Comparisons with remotely sensed burnt-area products indicate that the model reproduces broad geographic patterns of annual fractional burnt area over most regions, including the boreal forest, although interannual variability in the boreal zone is underestimated. Overall SPITFIRE produces realistic simulations of spatial and temporal patterns of fire under modern conditions and of the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace greenhouse gases and aerosols.

  4. The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Thonicke

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A process-based fire regime model (SPITFIRE has been developed, coupled with ecosystem dynamics in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to explore fire regimes and the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace atmospheric constituents. The model estimates an average release of 2.24 Pg C yr−1 as CO2 from biomass burning during the 1980s and 1990s. Comparison with observed active fire counts shows that the model reproduces where fire occurs and can mimic broad geographic patterns in the peak fire season, although the predicted peak is 1–2 months late in some regions. Modelled fire season length is generally overestimated by about one month, but shows a realistic pattern of differences among biomes. Comparisons with remotely sensed burnt-area products indicate that the model reproduces broad geographic patterns of annual fractional burnt area over most regions, including the boreal forest, although interannual variability in the boreal zone is underestimated.

  5. 火灾蔓延损失与出警模型研究%Research on fire spread loss and appropriate firemen number model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李逸轩

    2013-01-01

    A fire loss and firemen number taken part in fire fighting model were developed based on nonlinear programming problem's globally optimal solution. Fire loss and firemen's number needed in a fire disaster can be worked out according to the model. A good balance of two factors of fire spread loss and firemen number can be achieved. As a basic model, it can be expanded and refined for more complex simulation conditions for future work.%以非线性规划问题的全局最优解方法为基础,建立易蔓延火灾损失及参与出警的基础模型,优化出警人数,降低火灾总损失,达到出警和火灾损失之间关系的平衡点.本模型的建立,能在消防人力调配中起到指导作用,并且可以作为基础模型,为相应的扩展和细化提供基础,以满足更复杂的消防损失优化计算.

  6. Fire behavior modeling-a decision tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack Cohen; Bill Bradshaw

    1986-01-01

    The usefulness of an analytical model as a fire management decision tool is determined by the correspondence of its descriptive capability to the specific decision context. Fire managers must determine the usefulness of fire models as a decision tool when applied to varied situations. Because the wildland fire phenomenon is complex, analytical fire spread models will...

  7. Comparison of crown fire modeling systems used in three fire management applications

    OpenAIRE

    Scott, J. H.

    2006-01-01

    The relative behavior of surface-crown fire spread rate modeling systems used in three fire management applications—CFIS (Crown Fire Initiation and Spread), FlamMap and NEXUS— is compared using fire environment characteristics derived from a dataset of destructively measured canopy fuel and associated stand characteristics. Although the surface-crown modeling systems predict the same basic fire behavior characteristics (type of fire, spread rate) using the same basic fire environment characte...

  8. 隧道内火灾大小和火灾蔓延模拟研究%Modelling fire size and spread in tunnels

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ALAN BEARD; RICHARD CARVEL; PAUL JOWITT

    2007-01-01

    The heat release rate (HRR) of a fire in a tunnel is a crucial factor,both in terms of fire spread and smoke production.Key factors which influence the HRR are: (1) the nature of the burning item,(2) the tunnel geometry,(3) the ventilation conditions and (4) vehicle separation.This paper reports on work which has been undertaken over a number of years to model the dependence of HRR on these factors; the work is continuing.Specifically,Bayesian probabilistic models have been devised to model the dependence of the HRR of a fire on tunnel geometry and longitudinal forced ventilation and deterministic models have been devised to model fire spread from one item to another in a tunnel similar to the Channel Tunnel; again with longitudinal ventilation.Key interim results are presented.%隧道内火灾的热释放速率对火灾蔓延和烟气生成起着关键作用.影响热释放速率的关键参数包括:燃烧物特性、隧道形状、通风条件以及车辆流量.综述了几年来热释放速率对这些参数的依赖性所做的研究成果.设计了贝页斯概率模型来模拟火灾热释放速率受隧道形状以及纵向通风的影响,设计了定性模型来模拟火灾在类似海底隧道内从一个物体蔓延到另一个物体的情况,通风条件同样是纵向通风,并给出了此次研究的初步成果.

  9. Oriental bittersweet (Celastrus orbiculatus): Spreading by fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlovic, Noel B.; Leicht-Young, Stacey A.; Grundel, Ralph

    2016-01-01

    In many forest ecosystems, fire is critical in maintaining indigenous plant communities, but can either promote or arrest the spread of invasive species depending on their regeneration niche and resprouting ability. We examined the effects of cutting and burning treatments on the vegetative response (cover, stem density) and root resources of Oriental bittersweet (Celastrus orbiculatus), a liana invasive to North America that was introduced from East Asia. Treatments were control, spring cut, spring burn, spring cut & burn, summer cut, fall cut, fall burn, fall cut & burn, and fall herbicide. Cover was reduced the greatest by herbicide and summer cutting treatments, but increased more in the second year on moraine soils than on sandy soils. Burning and cutting & burning combined resulted in a resprout density four times greater than stem density prior to treatment for stems suckers, and survival increased with increasing stem size. While cutting of C. orbiculatus during the growing season (summer) reduced total nonstructural carbohydrates by 50% below early growing season levels and 75% below dormant season levels, burning did not significantly reduce total nonstructural carbohydrates. Thus, Oriental bittersweet is quite responsive to burning as a disturbance and resprouting and root-suckering creates additional opportunities for growth and attainment of the forest canopy. The positive response of Oriental bittersweet to burning has important implications for management of invasive lianas in fire-dependent forest landscapes.

  10. Forest fire spread with non-universal critical behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khelloufi, K.; Baara, Y.; Clerc, J. P.; Porterie, B.; Zekri, N.

    2013-10-01

    The critical behavior of spread dynamics is examined using a forest fire model. This model is characterized by long-range interactions due to flame radiation and a weighting process induced by the combustibles’ ignition energy and the flame residence time. Unlike magnetic systems, this model exhibits a non-universal phase transition. The critical exponents of the rate of spread depend both on the local interaction and on weighting. Near the transition, the exponent x of rate of spread is found to be equivalent to that of correlation time. The weighting process exhibits a new phase transition related to the heating process. This transition is analogous to the gelation transition in spin glasses.

  11. Higher Order Spreading Models

    CERN Document Server

    Argyros, S A; Tyros, K

    2012-01-01

    We introduce the higher order spreading models associated to a Banach space $X$. Their definition is based on $\\ff$-sequences $(x_s)_{s\\in\\ff}$ with $\\ff$ a regular thin family and the plegma families. We show that the higher order spreading models of a Banach space $X$ form an increasing transfinite hierarchy $(\\mathcal{SM}_\\xi(X))_{\\xi<\\omega_1}$. Each $\\mathcal{SM}_\\xi (X)$ contains all spreading models generated by $\\ff$-sequences $(x_s)_{s\\in\\ff}$ with order of $\\ff$ equal to $\\xi$. We also provide a study of the fundamental properties of the hierarchy.

  12. Spread and burning behavior of continuous spill fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Jomaas, Grunde

    2017-01-01

    Spill fire experiments with continuous discharge on a fireproof glass sheet were conducted to improve the understanding of spill fire spread and burning. Ethanol was used as the fuel and the discharge rate was varied from 2.8. mL/s to 7.6. mL/s. Three ignition conditions were used...... at the quasi-steady burning was lower than that of pool fires and the ratio of the spill fires' regression rate to the pool fires' regression rate was found to be approximately 0.89. With respect to the radiative penetration and the heat conduction between the fuel layer and the glass, a regression rate...... in the experiments; no ignition, instantaneous ignition and delayed ignition. The spread rate, regression rate, penetrated thermal radiation and the temperature of the bottom glass were analyzed. The experiments clearly show the entire spread process for spill fires. Further, the regression rate of spill fires...

  13. Analysis of Architectural Building Design Influences on Fire Spread in Densely Urban Settlement using Cellular Automata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambunan, L.; Salamah, H.; Asriana, N.

    2017-03-01

    This study aims to determine the influence of architectural design on the risk of fire spread in densely urban settlement area. Cellular Automata (CA) is used to analyse the fire spread pattern, speed, and the extent of damage. Four cells represent buildings, streets, and fields characteristic in the simulated area, as well as their flammability level and fire spread capabilities. Two fire scenarios are used to model the spread of fire: (1) fire origin in a building with concrete and wood material majority, and (2) fire origin in building with wood material majority. Building shape, building distance, road width, and total area of wall openings are considered constant, while wind is ignored. The result shows that fire spread faster in the building area with wood majority than with concrete majority. Significant amount of combustible building material, absence of distance between buildings, narrow streets and limited fields are factors which influence fire spread speed and pattern as well as extent of damage when fire occurs in the densely urban settlement area.

  14. 一种改进的林火蔓延模型及其实现%An Improved Forest Fire Spread Model and Its Realization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张菲菲; 解新路

    2012-01-01

    This study integrates the existed mathematical model and cellular automata to develop a new fire behavior model. The developed model expresses the main factors performing in the cellular space, such as forest fuel, temperature, humidity, slope, wind speed and direction, etc. And in this model the expressions of the rate of fire spread to eight neighboring cells in the Moore neighborhood are deduced, so the rules that update the cells in the lattice are proposed. Finally, the proposed model is expressed as computer algorithm by using secondary development technology of geographic information system, to realize fire behavior simulations which are under the different conditions.%为了研究林火蔓延的动态模拟问题,结合元胞自动机原理,对现有的林火蔓延数学模型进行改进,提出一种新的模拟林火蔓延模型。该模型充分表达了可燃物类型、温度、湿度、坡度、风速和风向等林火蔓延影响因子在元胞空间中的作用形式,通过求解出燃烧元胞向摩尔(Moore)型邻域中八个方向元胞的林火蔓延速度,来确定元胞状态演变规则函数。最后,利用地理信息系统二次开发技术将该模型表达成计算机算法,实现了不同条件下的林火行为的仿真模拟。

  15. Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE): Modeling gaps and data needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Adam Kochanski; Kirk Baker; Ruddy Mell; Rodman Linn; Ronan Paugam; Jan Mandel; Aime Fournier; Mary Ann Jenkins; Scott Goodrick; Gary Achtemeier; Andrew Hudak; Matthew Dickson; Brian Potter; Craig Clements; Shawn Urbanski; Roger Ottmar; Narasimhan Larkin; Timothy Brown; Nancy French; Susan Prichard; Adam Watts; Derek McNamara

    2017-01-01

    Fire and smoke models are numerical tools for simulating fire behavior, smoke dynamics, and air quality impacts of wildland fires. Fire models are developed based on the fundamental chemistry and physics of combustion and fire spread or statistical analysis of experimental data (Sullivan 2009). They provide information on fire spread and fuel consumption for safe and...

  16. Wildland Fire Behaviour Case Studies and Fuel Models for Landscape-Scale Fire Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul-Antoine Santoni

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents the extension of a physical model for the spreading of surface fire at landscape scale. In previous work, the model was validated at laboratory scale for fire spreading across litters. The model was then modified to consider the structure of actual vegetation and was included in the wildland fire calculation system Forefire that allows converting the two-dimensional model of fire spread to three dimensions, taking into account spatial information. Two wildland fire behavior case studies were elaborated and used as a basis to test the simulator. Both fires were reconstructed, paying attention to the vegetation mapping, fire history, and meteorological data. The local calibration of the simulator required the development of appropriate fuel models for shrubland vegetation (maquis for use with the model of fire spread. This study showed the capabilities of the simulator during the typical drought season characterizing the Mediterranean climate when most wildfires occur.

  17. Experimental study of fire barriers preventing vertical fire spread in ETISs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Huang

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the external thermal insulation system (ETIS has been applied increasingly in a large amount of buildings for energy conservation purpose. However, the increase use of combustible insulation materials in the ETIS has raised serious fire safety problems. Fires involving this type of ETIS have caused severe damage and loss. In order to improve its fire safety, fire barriers were suggested to be installed. This paper introduces fire experiments that have been done to study the effects of fire barriers on preventing vertical fire spread along the ETIS. The experiments were performed according to BS 8414-1:2002 “Fire performance of external cladding systems – Part 1: Test method for non-loadbearing external cladding systems applied to the face of the building”. The test facility consists of a 9 m high wall. The fire sources were wood cribs with a fire size of 3 ± 0.5 MW. The insulation materials were expanded polystyrene foam (EPS. The fire barrier was a horizontal strip of rockwool with a width of 300 mm. Thermocouples were used to measure temperatures outside and inside the ETIS. A series of experiments with different fire scenarios were done: no fire barrier, two fire barriers and three fire barriers at different heights. Test results were compared. The results show that the ETIS using EPS without fire barriers almost burned out, while the ETIS with fire barriers performed well in preventing fire spread. The temperatures above the fire barrier were much lower than those below the fire barrier, and most of the insulation materials above the top fire barrier stayed in place.

  18. Fire spread simulation of a full scale cable tunnel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huhtanen, R. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1999-11-01

    A fire simulation of a full scale tunnel was performed by using the commercial code EFFLUENT as the simulation platform. Estimation was made for fire spread on the stacked cable trays, possibility of fire spread to the cable trays on the opposite wall of the tunnel, detection time of smoke detectors in the smouldering phase and response of sprinkler heads in the flaming phase. According to the simulation, the rise of temperature in the smouldering phase is minimal, only of the order 1 deg C. The estimates of optical density of smoke show that normal smoke detectors should give an alarm within 2-4 minutes from the beginning of the smouldering phase, depending on the distance to the detector (in this case it was assumed that the thermal source connected to the smoke source was 50 W). The flow conditions at smoke detectors may be challenging, because the velocity magnitude is rather low at this phase. At 4 minutes the maximum velocity at the detectors is 0.12 m/s. During the flaming phase (beginning from 11 minutes) fire spreads on the stacked cable trays in an expected way, although the ignition criterion seems to perform poorly when ignition of new objects is considered. The Upper cable trays are forced to ignite by boundary condition definitions according to the experience found from ti full scale experiment and an earlier simulation. After 30 minutes the hot layer in the room becomes so hot that it speeds up the fire spread and the rate of heat release of burning objects. Further, the hot layer ignites the cable trays on the opposite wall of the tunnel after 45 minutes. It is estimated that the sprinkler heads would be activated at 20-22 minutes near the fire source and at 24-28 minutes little further from the fire source when fast sprinkler heads are used. The slow heads are activated between 26-32 minutes. (orig.)

  19. Simulating an infection growth model in certain healthy metabolic pathways of Homo sapiens for highlighting their role in Type I Diabetes mellitus using fire-spread strategy, feedbacks and sensitivities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somnath Tagore

    Full Text Available Disease Systems Biology is an area of life sciences, which is not very well understood to date. Analyzing infections and their spread in healthy metabolite networks can be one of the focussed areas in this regard. We have proposed a theory based on the classical forest fire model for analyzing the path of infection spread in healthy metabolic pathways. The theory suggests that when fire erupts in a forest, it spreads, and the surrounding trees also catch fire. Similarly, when we consider a metabolic network, the infection caused in the metabolites of the network spreads like a fire. We have constructed a simulation model which is used to study the infection caused in the metabolic networks from the start of infection, to spread and ultimately combating it. For implementation, we have used two approaches, first, based on quantitative strategies using ordinary differential equations and second, using graph-theory based properties. Furthermore, we are using certain probabilistic scores to complete this task and for interpreting the harm caused in the network, given by a 'critical value' to check whether the infection can be cured or not. We have tested our simulation model on metabolic pathways involved in Type I Diabetes mellitus in Homo sapiens. For validating our results biologically, we have used sensitivity analysis, both local and global, as well as for identifying the role of feedbacks in spreading infection in metabolic pathways. Moreover, information in literature has also been used to validate the results. The metabolic network datasets have been collected from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG.

  20. Simulating an infection growth model in certain healthy metabolic pathways of Homo sapiens for highlighting their role in Type I Diabetes mellitus using fire-spread strategy, feedbacks and sensitivities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagore, Somnath; De, Rajat K

    2013-01-01

    Disease Systems Biology is an area of life sciences, which is not very well understood to date. Analyzing infections and their spread in healthy metabolite networks can be one of the focussed areas in this regard. We have proposed a theory based on the classical forest fire model for analyzing the path of infection spread in healthy metabolic pathways. The theory suggests that when fire erupts in a forest, it spreads, and the surrounding trees also catch fire. Similarly, when we consider a metabolic network, the infection caused in the metabolites of the network spreads like a fire. We have constructed a simulation model which is used to study the infection caused in the metabolic networks from the start of infection, to spread and ultimately combating it. For implementation, we have used two approaches, first, based on quantitative strategies using ordinary differential equations and second, using graph-theory based properties. Furthermore, we are using certain probabilistic scores to complete this task and for interpreting the harm caused in the network, given by a 'critical value' to check whether the infection can be cured or not. We have tested our simulation model on metabolic pathways involved in Type I Diabetes mellitus in Homo sapiens. For validating our results biologically, we have used sensitivity analysis, both local and global, as well as for identifying the role of feedbacks in spreading infection in metabolic pathways. Moreover, information in literature has also been used to validate the results. The metabolic network datasets have been collected from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG).

  1. 24 CFR 3280.203 - Flame spread limitations and fire protection requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Flame spread limitations and fire... Fire Safety § 3280.203 Flame spread limitations and fire protection requirements. (a) Establishment of flame spread rating. The surface flame spread rating of interior-finish material must not exceed...

  2. An Electronic Timer for Measuring Spread Rates of Wildland Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard W. Blank; Albert J. Simard

    1983-01-01

    There are many disadvantages to current techniques for measuring the spread rate of wildland fires. This paper describes the design and use of an electronic timber that resolves most of the problems. The unit is small, lightweight, inexpensive, easy-to-assemble, self-contained, and long-running.

  3. Dynamical model for virus spread

    CERN Document Server

    Camelo-Neto, G

    1995-01-01

    The steady state properties of the mean density population of infected cells in a viral spread is simulated by a general forest fire like cellular automaton model with two distinct populations of cells ( permissive and resistant ones) and studied in the framework of the mean field approximation. Stochastic dynamical ingredients are introduced in this model to mimic cells regeneration (with probability {\\it p}) and to consider infection processes by other means than contiguity (with probability {\\it f}). Simulations are carried on a L \\times L square lattice considering the eight first neighbors. The mean density population of infected cells (D_i) is measured as function of the regeneration probability {\\it p}, and analyzed for small values of the ratio {\\it f/p } and for distinct degrees of the cell resistance. The results obtained by a mean field like approach recovers the simulations results. The role of the resistant parameter R (R \\geq 2) on the steady state properties is investigated and discussed in com...

  4. Reformulation of Rothermel's wildland fire behaviour model for heterogeneous fuelbeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David V. Sandberg; Cynthia L. Riccardi; Mark D. Schaaf

    2007-01-01

    Abstract: The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) includes equations that calculate energy release and one-dimensional spread rate in quasi-steady-state fires in heterogeneous but spatially uniform wildland fuelbeds, using a reformulation of the widely used Rothermel fire spread model. This reformulation provides an automated means to predict fire behavior...

  5. Fire safety in space - Investigating flame spread interaction over wires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citerne, Jean-Marie; Dutilleul, Hugo; Kizawa, Koki; Nagachi, Masashi; Fujita, Osamu; Kikuchi, Masao; Jomaas, Grunde; Rouvreau, Sébastien; Torero, Jose L.; Legros, Guillaume

    2016-09-01

    A new rig for microgravity experiments was used for the study flame spread of parallel polyethylene-coated wires in concurrent and opposed airflow. The parabolic flight experiments were conducted at small length- and time scales, i.e. typically over 10 cm long samples for up to 20 s. For the first time, the influence of neighboring spread on the mass burning rate was assessed in microgravity. The observations are contrasted with the influence characterized in normal gravity. The experimental results are expected to deliver meaningful guidelines for future, planned experiments at a larger scale. Arising from the current results, the issue of the potential interaction among spreading flames also needs to be carefully investigated as this interaction plays a major role in realistic fire scenarios, and therefore on the design of the strategies that would allow the control of such a fire. Once buoyancy has been removed, the characteristic length and time scales of the different modes of heat and mass transfer are modified. For this reason, interaction among spreading flames may be revealed in microgravity, while it would not at normal gravity, or vice versa. Furthermore, the interaction may lead to an enhanced spread rate when mutual preheating dominates or, conversely, a reduced spread rate when oxidizer flow vitiation is predominant. In more general terms, the current study supports both the SAFFIRE and the FLARE projects, which are large projects with international scientific teams. First, material samples will be tested in a series of flight experiments (SAFFIRE 1-3) conducted in Cygnus vehicles after they have undocked from the ISS. These experiments will allow the study of ignition and possible flame spread in real spacecraft conditions, i.e. over real length scale samples within real time scales. Second, concomitant research conducted within the FLARE project is dedicated to the assessment of new standard tests for materials that a spacecraft can be composed of

  6. Numerical Study to Find Mechanisms Behind the Spread of Hot Gases and Smoke in a Multi-room Fire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Gong Hee [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    According to the international fire safety analysis studies, fire contributes significantly to the overall core damage frequency (CDF) for both existing and new nuclear power plants. Fire simulation models have been developed as analytical tools for a performance-based fire safety assessment. The use of calculated predictions could be considered, on the one hand, for improvements and upgrades of the fire protection by the licensees and, on the other hand, as a tool for reproducible and clearly understandable estimations in assessing the available and/or foreseen fire protection measures by the regulatory authority. In this study, in order to evaluate the prediction performance of fire simulation model for the spread of hot gases and smoke in a multi-room fire, calculations were conducted with Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) 6.4. In this study, in order to evaluate the prediction performance of fire simulation model for the spread of hot gases and smoke in a multi-room fire, calculations were conducted with FDS 6.4. The predicted results were compared with measured data (PRS{sub D}1) obtained from PRISME Door test series. The major conclusion could be summarized in fire (source) room, buoyant gases moved up to ceiling in fire plume and ceiling jet spread radially until confined by room partition. Additionally, because plume entrained surrounding air, relatively cold flow moved from target room toward fire (source) room through a lower part of open door and Although FDS could give the meaningful information to understand the thermal-flow pattern in the under-ventilated fire condition, it still had the limitation (for example, over-estimation of flame temperature) and then showed a certain level of uncertainty in the calculation result.

  7. Interfacing materials models with fire field models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolette, V.F.; Tieszen, S.R.; Moya, J.L.

    1995-12-01

    For flame spread over solid materials, there has traditionally been a large technology gap between fundamental combustion research and the somewhat simplistic approaches used for practical, real-world applications. Recent advances in computational hardware and computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based software have led to the development of fire field models. These models, when used in conjunction with material burning models, have the potential to bridge the gap between research and application by implementing physics-based engineering models in a transient, multi-dimensional tool. This paper discusses the coupling that is necessary between fire field models and burning material models for the simulation of solid material fires. Fire field models are capable of providing detailed information about the local fire environment. This information serves as an input to the solid material combustion submodel, which subsequently calculates the impact of the fire environment on the material. The response of the solid material (in terms of thermal response, decomposition, charring, and off-gassing) is then fed back into the field model as a source of mass, momentum and energy. The critical parameters which must be passed between the field model and the material burning model have been identified. Many computational issues must be addressed when developing such an interface. Some examples include the ability to track multiple fuels and species, local ignition criteria, and the need to use local grid refinement over the burning material of interest.

  8. Potential of fire spread (POTFIS). POTFIS summary report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keski-Rahkonen, O.; Mangs, J.; Hostikka, S.; Korhonen, T. [VTT Building and Transport, Espoo (Finland)

    2004-07-01

    The strategic goal of POTFIS project and its background philosophy is outlined, and two new examples as parts of this development are described: CFD simulation of fires in turbine halls, and Monte Carlo calculation of large and complicated fire scenarios. For the former guidance is given how to avoid flow oscillations, which although physically based phenomena, are numerical artefacts caused by simplified geometry. For the latter an economic Two Model Monte Carlo method is developed allowing use of CFD at a needed accuracy but fraction of cost of full one model Monte Carlo. (orig.)

  9. Fire Models and Design Fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Annemarie

    The aim of this project is to perform an experimental study on the influence of the thermal feedback on the burning behavior of well ventilated pre-flashover fires. For the purpose an experimental method has been developed. Here the same identical objects are tested under free burn conditions...... carried out by Carleton University and NRC-IRC performed on seven different types of fire loads representing commercial premises, comprise the tests used for the study. The results show that for some of the room test the heat release rate increased due to thermal feedback compared to free burn for a pre......-flashover fire. Two phenomena were observed, that relate well to theory was found. In an incipient phase the heat release rate rose with the temperature of the smoke layer/enclosure boundaries. This increase was also found to depend on the flammability properties of the burning object. The results also...

  10. Experimental study and numerical simulation of spread law for fire on tunnel

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    牛会永; 乔晨露; 安敬鱼; 邓军

    2015-01-01

    In order to research spread law and distribution law of temperature nearby fire sources on roadway in mine, according to combustion theory and other basic, the theory model of temperature attenuation was determined under unsteady heat-exchange between wind and roadway wall. The full-size roadway fire simulation experiments were carried out in Chongqing Research Institute of China Coal Technology & Engineering Group Corporation. The development processes of mine fire and flow pattern of high temperature gas were analyzed. Experimental roadway is seen as physical model, and through using CFD software, the processes of mine fire have been simulated on computer. The results show that, after fire occurs, if the wind speed is less than the minimum speed which can prevent smoke from rolling back, then the smaller wind speed can cause smoke to roll back easily. Hot plume will lead to secondary disasters in upwind side. Because of roadway wall, hot plume released from roadway fire zone has caused the occurrence of the ceiling jet, and the hot plume has been forced down. Whereas, owing to the higher temperature, buoyancy effect is more obvious. Therefore, smoke rises gradually along the roadway in the flow process, and the hierarchical interface appears wavy. Oxygen-enriched combustion and fuel-enriched combustion are the two kinds of combustion states of fire. The oxygen content of downwind side of fire is maintained at around 15% for oxygen-enriched combustion, and the oxygen content of downwind side of fire is maintained at around 2% for fuel-enriched combustion. Furthermore, fuel-enriched combustion can lead to secondary disasters easily.

  11. FIRE CHARACTERISTICS FOR ADVANCED MODELLING OF FIRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otto Dvořák

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the material and fire properties of solid flammable/combustible materials /substances /products, which are used as inputs for the computer numerical fire models. At the same time it gives the test standards for their determination.

  12. Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Henri Balbi

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulating the interaction between fire and atmosphere is critical to the estimation of the rate of spread of the fire. Wildfire’s convection (i.e., entire plume can modify the local meteorology throughout the atmospheric boundary layer and consequently affect the fire propagation speed and behaviour. In this study, we use for the first time the Méso-NH meso-scale numerical model coupled to the point functional ForeFire simplified physical front-tracking wildfire model to investigate the differences introduced by the atmospheric feedback in propagation speed and behaviour. Both numerical models have been developed as research tools for operational models and are currently used to forecast localized extreme events. These models have been selected because they can be run coupled and support decisions in wildfire management in France and Europe. The main originalities of this combination reside in the fact that Méso-NH is run in a Large Eddy Simulation (LES configuration and that the rate of spread model used in ForeFire provides a physical formulation to take into account the effect of wind and slope. Simulations of typical experimental configurations show that the numerical atmospheric model is able to reproduce plausible convective effects of the heat produced by the fire. Numerical results are comparable to estimated values for fire-induced winds and present behaviour similar to other existing numerical approaches.

  13. Integrating fire with hydrological projections: model evaluation to identify uncertainties and tradeoffs in model complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, M.; McKenzie, D.

    2013-12-01

    It is imperative for resource managers to understand how a changing climate might modify future watershed and hydrological processes, and such an understanding is incomplete if disturbances such as fire are not integrated with hydrological projections. Can a robust fire spread model be developed that approximates patterns of fire spread in response to varying topography wind patterns, and fuel loads and moistures, without requiring intensive calibration to each new study area or time frame? We assessed the performance of a stochastic model of fire spread (WMFire), integrated with the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys), for projecting the effects of climatic change on mountain watersheds. We first use Monte Carlo inference to determine that the fire spread model is able to replicate the spatial pattern of fire spread for a contemporary wildfire in Washington State (the Tripod fire), measured by the lacunarity and fractal dimension of the fire. We then integrate a version of WMFire able to replicate the contemporary wildfire with RHESSys and simulate a New Mexico watershed over the calibration period of RHESSys (1941-1997). In comparing the fire spread model to a single contemporary wildfire we found issues in parameter identifiability for several of the nine parameters, due to model input uncertainty and insensitivity of the mathematical function to certain ranges of the parameter values. Model input uncertainty is caused by the inherent difficulty in reconstructing fuel loads and fuel moistures for a fire event after the fire has occurred, as well as by issues in translating variables relevant to hydrological processes produced by the hydrological model to those known to affect fire spread and fire severity. The first stage in the model evaluation aided the improvement of the model in both of these regards. In transporting the model to a new landscape in order to evaluate fire regimes in addition to patterns of fire spread, we find reasonable

  14. Numerical simulation study on impact of slope on smoke temperature distribution and smoke spread pattern in spiral tunnel fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Xie, Wei

    2017-04-01

    The spiral tunnel arises as a new form of tunnel, with great differences in fire development pattern when compared with traditional straight line tunnel, this paper takes method of numerical simulation, based on computation fluid dynamics theory and fire-turbulence numerical simulation theory, establishing a full-scale spiral tunnel model, and applies CFX simulation software to research full-scale spiral tunnel fire and its ventilation condition. The results indicate that with increasing tunnel slope, high temperature area gradually extends to downstream area, high temperature mainly distributes near fire source area, and symmetrically distributes among the fire center point; With increasing tunnel slope, the highest temperature underneath tunnel arch rises first followed by a downward trend and then rising again, which strengthens chimney effect, and promotes more fresh cold air flow into the tunnel, suppressing fire smoke backflow and simultaneously accelerating fire smoke spread to downstream area; Fire plume presents vertical slender shape with 1% or 3% tunnel slope, and burning flame hits tunnel arch and then extending all around into the ceiling jet flow, when tunnel slope increases to 5% or 7%, fire plume cross section grows bigger and wider with unstable burning flame swaying in all directions, integrally incline to fire downstream.

  15. Fire safety in space – Investigating flame spread interaction over wires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Citerne, Jean-Marie; Dutilleul, Hugo; Kizawa, Koki;

    2016-01-01

    . Arising from the current results, the issue of the potential interaction among spreading flames also needs to be carefully investigated as this interaction plays a major role in realistic fire scenarios, and therefore on the design of the strategies that would allow the control of such a fire. Once...

  16. Integrating Fire Effects into an Ecohydrologic Model for Simulating Fire Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, R. R.; Tague, C.; Kennedy, M. C.; McKenzie, D.

    2016-12-01

    Ecohydrologic models are used to dynamically simulate vegetation growth/ mortality and their interaction with water and nutrient fluxes. Although disturbances such as wildfire are a natural part of the landscape in environments such as the Western US, wildfire is generally included only as an exogenous variable in ecohydrologic models. An alternative approach is to integrate wildfire directly into ecohydrologic models so that wildfire ignition, spread and effects are driven by simulated landscape conditions within the model. This approach allows for the simulation of natural fire regimes and may provide more robust estimates of long-term ecological variables such as forest health, carbon sequestration and water use. For this study, we detail a fire-effects model that has been developed to couple a fire-spread model, WMFire, with an ecohydrologic model, RHESSys. The fire-effects model is designed for use with a simple two-stratum representation of canopy structure and computes losses following fire spread to a given landscape patch. Losses to a modeled litter layer, coarse woody debris layer and understory vegetation layer are determined based on a patch-level integrated measure of fuel loads, moisture levels, wind speed, and topography. Losses to an overstory vegetation layer are based on understory biomass consumed by the wildfire. The fire effects model was found to replicate the expected impacts of wildfire on vegetation and litter. Further, the fully coupled RHESSys-WMFire model was tested in four Western US watersheds with different vegetation/climate/fire characteristics and preliminary results indicated that the model was able to reproduce the disparate fire regimes. We highlight remaining challenges with simulating fire effects in ecohydrologic models using simplified representations of canopy structures and litter fuels. This study demonstrates the potential for integrating fire into ecohydrologic models for simulating future fire regimes.

  17. A Finsler geodesic spray paradigm for wildfire spread modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markvorsen, Steen

    2015-01-01

    represents the local fire templates. The ‘paradigm’ part of the present proposal is thus concerned with the corresponding shift of attention from the actual fire-lines to consider instead the geodesic spray - the ‘fire-particles’ - which together, side by side, mold the fire-lines at each instant of time...... sensitive - geodesic solutions to the wildfire spread problem. The methods presented here stem directly from first principles of 2-dimensional Finsler geometry, and they can be readily extracted from the seminal monographs [10] and [11], but we will take special care to introduce and exemplify the necessary...... framework for the implementation of the geometric machinery into this new application - not least in order to facilitate and support the dialog between geometers and the wildfire modelling community. The ‘integration’ part alluded to above is obtained via the geodesics of the ensuing Finsler metric which...

  18. 75 FR 61521 - NUREG/CR-7010, Cable Heat Release, Ignition, and Spread in Tray Installations During Fire...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-05

    ... COMMISSION NUREG/CR-7010, Cable Heat Release, Ignition, and Spread in Tray Installations During Fire..., and Spread in Tray Installations During Fire (CHRISTIFIRE) Volume 1: Horizontal Trays, Draft Report... pdr.resource@nrc.gov . ``NUREG/CR-7010, Cable Heat Release, Ignition, and Spread in Tray Installations...

  19. A wildland fire modeling and visualization environment

    CERN Document Server

    Mandel, Jan; Kochanski, Adam K; Kondratenko, Volodymyr Y; Zhang, Lin; Anderson, Erik; Daniels, Joel; Silva, Claudio T; Johnson, Christopher R

    2011-01-01

    We present an overview of a modeling environment, consisting of a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model, utilities for visualization, data processing, and diagnostics, open source software repositories, and a community wiki. The fire model, called SFIRE, is based on a fire-spread model, implemented by the level-set method, and it is coupled with the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. A version with a subset of the features is distributed with WRF 3.3 as WRF-Fire. In each time step, the fire module takes the wind as input and returns the latent and sensible heat fluxes. The software architecture uses WRF parallel infrastructure for massively parallel computing. Recent features of the code include interpolation from an ideal logarithmic wind profile for nonhomogeneous fuels and ignition from a fire perimeter with an atmosphere and fire spin-up. Real runs use online sources for fuel maps, fine-scale topography, and meteorological data, and can run faster than real time. Visualization pathways allow generating...

  20. Numerical simulation of fire spread in terminal 2 of Belgrade airport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Žarko

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper concern the results of software fire spread process prototype in terminal 2 of Belgrade airport using computational fluid dynamics. Numerical simulation of fire for the most critical fire scenario has been performed, primarily obtaining the space and time distribution of: velocity, pressure, temperature, and smoke concentration, assuming that HVAC systems have been switched off and all doors on the evacuation ways have been opened, just as the fire started. Also, two simulations have been compared of the smoke ventilation and not ventilation for the same scenario. Within the framework of the results presentation, isosurfaces of constant temperature (100 ºC and smoke concentration (4000 ppm are presented, based on the numerical simulation. Progression of these surfaces along the terminal 2 coincides to the experimental and experience evidence, forming the plume zone just above the fireplace, and spreading in the zone of underground ceiling and stairwell openings. .

  1. Spatial fire modeling in Mkuze Game Reserve: A case study*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.G. Berjak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Controlled burning is a necessary and regular activity in Mkuze Game Reserve, South Africa. Predicting the rate and extent of fire spread in controlled burning operations is, therefore, an important management objective. In this paper we evaluate a cellular automaton model for fire spread in terms of this objective using empirical data for two case studies in Mkuze Game Reserve. Incorporating data relating to factors such as temperature reduction in the early evening, subsequent dew formation and increased fuel moisture content, the model was found to closely resemble the observed fire behaviour.

  2. Modelling of fire count data: fire disaster risk in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boadi, Caleb; Harvey, Simon K; Gyeke-Dako, Agyapomaa

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic dynamics involved in ecological count data require distribution fitting procedures to model and make informed judgments. The study provides empirical research, focused on the provision of an early warning system and a spatial graph that can detect societal fire risks. It offers an opportunity for communities, organizations, risk managers, actuaries and governments to be aware of, and understand fire risks, so that they will increase the direct tackling of the threats posed by fire. Statistical distribution fitting method that best helps identify the stochastic dynamics of fire count data is used. The aim is to provide a fire-prediction model and fire spatial graph for observed fire count data. An empirical probability distribution model is fitted to the fire count data and compared to the theoretical probability distribution of the stochastic process of fire count data. The distribution fitted to the fire frequency count data helps identify the class of models that are exhibited by the fire and provides time leading decisions. The research suggests that fire frequency and loss (fire fatalities) count data in Ghana are best modelled with a Negative Binomial Distribution. The spatial map of observed fire frequency and fatality measured over 5 years (2007-2011) offers in this study a first regional assessment of fire frequency and fire fatality in Ghana.

  3. Towards a Real-Time Data Driven Wildland Fire Model

    CERN Document Server

    Mandel, Jan; Chakraborty, Soham; Coen, Janice L; Douglas, Craig C; Vodacek, Anthony; Wang, Zhen

    2008-01-01

    A wildland fire model based on semi-empirical relations for the spread rate of a surface fire and post-frontal heat release is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting atmospheric model (WRF). The propagation of the fire front is implemented by a level set method. Data is assimilated by a morphing ensemble Kalman filter, which provides amplitude as well as position corrections. Thermal images of a fire will provide the observations and will be compared to a synthetic image from the model state.

  4. Integrating Fire Behavior Models and Geospatial Analysis for Wildland Fire Risk Assessment and Fuel Management Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan A. Ager

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals and public expectations. A number of fire behavior metrics, including fire spread, intensity, likelihood, and ecological risk must be analyzed for multiple treatment alternatives. The effect of treatments on wildfire impacts must be considered at multiple scales. The process is complicated by the lack of data integration among fire behavior models, and weak linkages to geographic information systems, corporate data, and desktop office software. This paper describes our efforts to build a streamlined fuel management planning and risk assessment framework, and an integrated system of tools for designing and testing fuel treatment programs on fire-prone wildlands.

  5. Fire science at LLNL: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasegawa, H.K. (ed.)

    1990-03-01

    This fire sciences report from LLNL includes topics on: fire spread in trailer complexes, properties of welding blankets, validation of sprinkler systems, fire and smoke detectors, fire modeling, and other fire engineering and safety issues. (JEF)

  6. Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Yaolin

    2003-01-01

    Based upon the simulation of the stochastic process of infection, onset and spreading of each SARS patient, a system dynamic model of SRAS spreading is constructed. Data from Vietnam is taken as an example for Monte Carlo test. The preliminary results indicate that the time-dependent infection rate is the most important control factor for SARS spreading. The model can be applied to prediction of the course with fluctuations of the epidemics, if the previous history of the epidemics and the future infection rate under control measures are known.

  7. Gossip spread in social network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Gossip almost inevitably arises in real social networks. In this article we investigate the relationship between the number of friends of a person and limits on how far gossip about that person can spread in the network. How far gossip travels in a network depends on two sets of factors: (a) factors determining gossip transmission from one person to the next and (b) factors determining network topology. For a simple model where gossip is spread among people who know the victim it is known that a standard scale-free network model produces a non-monotonic relationship between number of friends and expected relative spread of gossip, a pattern that is also observed in real networks (Lind et al., 2007). Here, we study gossip spread in two social network models (Toivonen et al., 2006; Vázquez, 2003) by exploring the parameter space of both models and fitting them to a real Facebook data set. Both models can produce the non-monotonic relationship of real networks more accurately than a standard scale-free model while also exhibiting more realistic variability in gossip spread. Of the two models, the one given in Vázquez (2003) best captures both the expected values and variability of gossip spread.

  8. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  9. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  10. An Assessment of the Fire Safety Hazard Associated with External Fire Spread in Tall Buildings with Combustible Façade Material

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lavard Brogaard, Nicholas; Torero, Jose L.; Jomaas, Grunde

    2014-01-01

    External fire spread poses a severe threat to the fire safety of tall buildings with the ensuing risk of multiple simultaneous compartment fires and in the worst case, a complete structural failure. However, it is important to understand every aspect of the causes that leads to external fire spread...... in order to obtain a conclusive assessment of the fire safety hazards associated with combustible facades. Prescriptive fire safety codes are typically not allowing any type of combustible façade in buildings that are taller than 2-3 stories. However, a performance based approach does not contain height...... limitations in many countries. The study within external fire spread has shown that the transition from prescriptive to performance based approach can be cryptic and it is important to keep in mind that a performance based design requires that all aspects are taken into account. Therefore, a method...

  11. Modelling for Forest Fire Evolution Based on the Energy Accumulation and Release

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Yang

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Forest fire evolution plays an important role in the decision-making of controlling the forest fire. This paper aims to simulate the dynamics of the forest fire spread using a cellular automaton approach. Having analyzed the characteristics and evolution of forest fires, a simulation model for the forest fire evolution based on the energy accumulation and release is proposed. And, taking Australia's catastrophic forest fire in 2009 as an example, the fire’s evolution closely to the reality is simulated. The results of the experiments are shown that if forest energy is released in a small scale before or during the fire, the fire would be better controlled even if it does not occur. Improving the efficiency of the fire extinguishing procedures and reducing the speed of the fire spread are also effective for controlling the forest fire.

  12. 动态数据驱动的林火蔓延模型适宜性选择%Application of Automatic Selection System of Forest Fire Spread Models Driven by Dynamic Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨广斌; 刘鹏举; 唐小明

    2011-01-01

    Dynamic data driven application system can improve simulation performance and accuracy by collecting and incorporating dynamic data from fire area. Based on BP artificial neural network, a frame construction of forest fire model selection of suitability was designed. Forest fire model selection knowledge was produced through BP artificial neural network. The system implemented automatic and intelligent selection of forest fire models. BP artificial neural network model of forest fire model selection was build by treating forest fire environment data as input variables and treating appropriate forest fire model as output variables. Additionally, we studied the methods acquiring and calculating data of input and output. The system implemented a mechanism of automatic model selection driven by dynamic data technology. We selected 72 items experimental data from historical forest fire records in Beijing to test and confirm the validity of model selection. It was found that the reliability of model selection was more than 80%.%基于BP人工神经网络方法设计林火模型适宜性选择技术框架结构,通过神经网络形成林火模型选择知识,实现林火模型的自动化和智能化选择;以火场环境因子为输入变量,以适宜火场环境模拟的林火蔓延模型作为输出变量,构建林火模型选择神经网络模型;研究输入、输出因子数据的获取与计算方式,实现动态数据驱动的林火模型自动选择机制.以北京市为例,选择有详细火场情况记录的72场林火作为试验样本,其中60条记录作为学习样本集,12条记录作为验证样本,对神经网络进行学习和验证,结果表明:模型选择精度可达到80%以上.

  13. A network model for Ebola spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzo, Alessandro; Pedalino, Biagio; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2016-04-01

    The availability of accurate models for the spreading of infectious diseases has opened a new era in management and containment of epidemics. Models are extensively used to plan for and execute vaccination campaigns, to evaluate the risk of international spreadings and the feasibility of travel bans, and to inform prophylaxis campaigns. Even when no specific therapeutical protocol is available, as for the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), models of epidemic spreading can provide useful insight to steer interventions in the field and to forecast the trend of the epidemic. Here, we propose a novel mathematical model to describe EVD spreading based on activity driven networks (ADNs). Our approach overcomes the simplifying assumption of homogeneous mixing, which is central to most of the mathematically tractable models of EVD spreading. In our ADN-based model, each individual is not bound to contact every other, and its network of contacts varies in time as a function of an activity potential. Our model contemplates the possibility of non-ideal and time-varying intervention policies, which are critical to accurately describe EVD spreading in afflicted countries. The model is calibrated from field data of the 2014 April-to-December spreading in Liberia. We use the model as a predictive tool, to emulate the dynamics of EVD in Liberia and offer a one-year projection, until December 2015. Our predictions agree with the current vision expressed by professionals in the field, who consider EVD in Liberia at its final stage. The model is also used to perform a what-if analysis to assess the efficacy of timely intervention policies. In particular, we show that an earlier application of the same intervention policy would have greatly reduced the number of EVD cases, the duration of the outbreak, and the infrastructures needed for the implementation of the intervention.

  14. Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G; Gauthier, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.

  15. Model Reduction of Nonlinear Fire Dynamics Models

    OpenAIRE

    Lattimer, Alan Martin

    2016-01-01

    Due to the complexity, multi-scale, and multi-physics nature of the mathematical models for fires, current numerical models require too much computational effort to be useful in design and real-time decision making, especially when dealing with fires over large domains. To reduce the computational time while retaining the complexity of the domain and physics, our research has focused on several reduced-order modeling techniques. Our contributions are improving wildland fire reduced-order mod...

  16. Experiments and modelling on vertical flame spread

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keski-Rahkonen, O.; Mangs, J. [VTT Building and Transport, Espoo (Finland)

    2004-07-01

    he principle and some preliminary results are shown of a new vertical flame spread modelling effort. Quick experimental screenings on relevant phenomena are made, some models are evaluated, and a new set of needed measuring instruments is proposed. Finally a single example of FRNC cable is shown as application of the methods. (orig.)

  17. Study on prevention of spread of vertical fire along finishing materials for external wall of high-rise buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoo Yong Ho

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Although there are laws in the Korea Building Act relating to exterior finishing materials, fireproof structures and fire-stop of curtain wall structures, the standards relating to and test methods on securing detailed fire safety functions for exterior materials of all buildings including high-rise buildings have not been prepared. This is due to the fact that test methods and standards to quantitatively evaluate the vertical fire spread of the exterior material of buildings do not exist. In addition, while semi non-combustible materials or non-combustible materials are required to be used to prevent fire spread in buildings which exceed 30-stories, it is necessary to review the standards and regulations in cases where fire blocking systems, capable of preventing the vertical fire spread within the curtain wall, are installed to consider permitting the utilization of fire retardant material following an assessment of the construction characteristics of high-rise buildings. The functional evaluation standards and test methods on the vertical fire spread introduced in this study will be a more effective method for performing evaluations to prevent fire spread compared to the currently utilized method of performing small scale tests.

  18. Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

    2007-01-01

    Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

  19. WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

    2012-01-01

    A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

  20. Modeling and simulation of epidemic spread

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shatnawi, Maad; Lazarova-Molnar, Sanja; Zaki, Nazar

    2013-01-01

    and control such epidemics. This paper presents an overview of the epidemic spread modeling and simulation, and summarizes the main technical challenges in this field. It further investigates the most relevant recent approaches carried out towards this perspective and provides a comparison and classification...

  1. Spread of smoke and heat along narrow air cavity in double-skin façade fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chow Lun Cheuk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A scenario on double-skin façade fire was identified earlier for hazard assessment. A flashover room fire occurred next to the façade, broke the interior glass pane and spread to the façade cavity. As observed in experiments, hot gas moved up as a vertical channel flow for narrow façade cavity. Heat and smoke spread along the narrow air cavity of a double-skin façade will be studied in this paper. A simple mathematical model is developed from basic heat transfer theory for studying the vertical air temperature profiles of the hot gas flowing along the cavity. Assuming one-dimensional flow for hot gas moving up the façade cavity, conservation equations on mass and enthalpy were solved. Experimental results on two double-skin façade rigs of height 6 m and 15 m with narrow cavity depth were used to justify the results. A total of 11 tests were carried out. Correlation expressions between cavity air temperature and the height above ceiling of the fire room were derived.

  2. Investigation into the use of a water curtain over openings to prevent fire spread

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Turco Matt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of several full-scale experiments to study heat radiation attenuation and shielding using sprinklers to create a water curtain between a compartment fire and a target wall. This work builds on the concept that water absorbs and scatters heat radiation and applies it as a shielding mechanism, which can be used to protect personnel and property exposed to an opening during a compartment fire. The purpose of the study is to determine the effectiveness of a water curtain created using sprinkler heads in attenuating the heat flux from flames exiting a compartment fire, shielding the target wall and preventing fire spread. The results show that the water curtain reduces heat flux to the target wall which may allow for decreasing the building distance from the property line. Heat fluxes along the target wall are compared to heat fluxes required for the piloted ignition of wood products. The effects of fire size, sprinkler system flow rate, and separation distance to the target wall are discussed.

  3. Advanced numerical modelling of a fire. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikkilae, L.; Keski-Rahkonen, O. [VTT Building Technology, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-03-01

    Experience and probabilistic risk assessments show that fires present a major hazard in a nuclear power plant (NPP). The PALOME project (1988-92) improved the quality of numerical simulation of fires to make it a useful tool for fire safety analysis. Some of the most advanced zone model fire simulation codes were acquired. The performance of the codes was studied through literature and personal interviews in earlier studies and BRI2 code from the Japanese Building Research Institute was selected for further use. In PALOME 2 project this work was continued. Information obtained from large-scale fire tests at the German HDR facility allowed reliable prediction of the rate of heat release and was used for code validation. BRI2 code was validated particularly by participation in the CEC standard problem `Prediction of effects caused by a cable fire experiment within the HDR-facility`. Participation in the development of a new field model code SOFIE specifically for fire applications as British-Swedish-Finnish cooperation was one of the goals of the project. SOFIE code was implemented at VTT and the first results of validation simulations were obtained. Well instrumented fire tests on electronic cabinets were carried out to determine source terms for simulation of room fires and to estimate fire spread to adjacent cabinets. The particular aim of this study was to measure the rate of heat release from a fire in an electronic cabinet. From the three tests, differing mainly in the amount of the fire load, data was obtained for source terms in numerical modelling of fires in rooms containing electronic cabinets. On the basis of these tests also a simple natural ventilation model was derived. (19 refs.).

  4. Spreading Models in Banach Space Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Argyros, S A; Tyros, K

    2010-01-01

    We extend the classical Brunel-Sucheston definition of the spreading model by introducing the $\\mathcal{F}$-sequences $(x_s)_{s\\in\\mathcal{F}}$ in a Banach space and the plegma families in $\\mathcal{F}$ where $\\mathcal{F}$ is a regular thin family. The new concept yields a transfinite increasing hierarchy of classes of 1-subsymmetric sequences. We explore the corresponding theory and we present examples establishing this hierarchy and illustrating the limitation of the theory.

  5. Coupled Atmosphere-Fire Simulations of Fireflux: Impacts of Model Resolution on Model Performance

    CERN Document Server

    Kochanski, Adam K; Jenkins, M A; Mandel, J; Beezley, J D

    2011-01-01

    The ability to forecast grass fire spread could be of a great importance for agencies making decisions about prescribed burns. However, the usefulness of the models used for fire-spread predictions is limited by the time required for completing the coupled atmosphere-fire simulations. In this study we analyze the sensitivity of a coupled model with respect to the vertical resolution of the atmospheric grid and the resolution of fire mesh that both affect computational performance of the model. Based on the observations of the plume properties recorded during the FireFlux experiment (Clements et al., 2007), we try to establish the optimal model configuration that provides realistic results for the least computational expense.

  6. Rumor spreading models with random denials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorno, Virginia; Spina, Serena

    2016-11-01

    The concept of denial is introduced on rumor spreading processes. The denials occur with a certain rate and they reset to start the initial situation. A population of N individuals is subdivided into ignorants, spreaders and stiflers; at the initial time there is only one spreader and the rest of the population is ignorant. The denials are introduced in the classic DK model and in its generalization, in which a spreader can transmit the rumor at most to k ignorants. The steady state densities are analyzed for these models. Finally, a numerical analysis is performed to study the rule of the involved parameters and to compare the proposed models.

  7. Self-organized model of cascade spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gualdi, S.; Medo, M.; Zhang, Y.-C.

    2011-01-01

    We study simultaneous price drops of real stocks and show that for high drop thresholds they follow a power-law distribution. To reproduce these collective downturns, we propose a minimal self-organized model of cascade spreading based on a probabilistic response of the system elements to stress conditions. This model is solvable using the theory of branching processes and the mean-field approximation. For a wide range of parameters, the system is in a critical state and displays a power-law cascade-size distribution similar to the empirically observed one. We further generalize the model to reproduce volatility clustering and other observed properties of real stocks.

  8. Air pollution forecasting by coupled atmosphere-fire model WRF and SFIRE with WRF-Chem

    CERN Document Server

    Kochanski, Adam K; Mandel, Jan; Clements, Craig B

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric pollution regulations have emerged as a dominant obstacle to prescribed burns. Thus, forecasting the pollution caused by wildland fires has acquired high importance. WRF and SFIRE model wildland fire spread in a two-way interaction with the atmosphere. The surface heat flux from the fire causes strong updrafts, which in turn change the winds and affect the fire spread. Fire emissions, estimated from the burning organic matter, are inserted in every time step into WRF-Chem tracers at the lowest atmospheric layer. The buoyancy caused by the fire then naturally simulates plume dynamics, and the chemical transport in WRF-Chem provides a forecast of the pollution spread. We discuss the choice of wood burning models and compatible chemical transport models in WRF-Chem, and demonstrate the results on case studies.

  9. WRF fire simulation coupled with a fuel moisture model and smoke transport by WRF-Chem

    CERN Document Server

    Kochanski, Adam K; Mandel, Jan; Kim, Minjeong

    2012-01-01

    We describe two recent additions to WRF coupled with a fire spread model. Fire propagation is strongly dependent on fuel moisture, which in turn depends on the history of the atmosphere. We have implemented a equilibrium time-lag model of fuel moisture driven by WRF variables. The code allows the user to specify fuel parameters, with the defaults calibrated to the Canadian fire danger rating system for 10-hour fuel. The moisture model can run coupled with the atmosphere-fire model, or offline from WRF output to equilibrate the moisture over a period of time and to provide initial moisture conditions for a coupled atmosphere-fire-moisture simulation. The fire model also inserts smoke tracers into WRF-Chem to model the transport of fire emissions. The coupled model is available from OpenWFM.org. An earlier version of the fire model coupled with atmosphere is a part of WRF release.

  10. Multiscale modeling of virus replication and spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumberger, Peter; Frey, Felix; Schwarz, Ulrich S; Graw, Frederik

    2016-07-01

    Replication and spread of human viruses is based on the simultaneous exploitation of many different host functions, bridging multiple scales in space and time. Mathematical modeling is essential to obtain a systems-level understanding of how human viruses manage to proceed through their life cycles. Here, we review corresponding advances for viral systems of large medical relevance, such as human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). We will outline how the combination of mathematical models and experimental data has advanced our quantitative knowledge about various processes of these pathogens, and how novel quantitative approaches promise to fill remaining gaps.

  11. Self-organized model of cascade spreading

    CERN Document Server

    Gualdi, Stanislao; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2010-01-01

    We study simultaneous price drops of real stocks and show that for high drop thresholds they follow a power-law distribution. To reproduce these collective downturns, we propose a self-organized model of cascade spreading based on a probabilistic response of the system's elements to stress conditions. This model is solvable using the theory of branching processes and the mean-field approximation and displays a power-law cascade-size distribution-similar to the empirically observed one-over a wide range of parameters.

  12. Data Assimilation for Wildland Fires: Ensemble Kalman filters in coupled atmosphere-surface models

    OpenAIRE

    Mandel, Jan; Beezley, Jonathan D.; Coen, Janice L.; Kim, Minjeong

    2007-01-01

    Two wildland fire models are described, one based on reaction-diffusion-convection partial differential equations, and one based on semi-empirical fire spread by the level let method. The level set method model is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model. The regularized and the morphing ensemble Kalman filter are used for data assimilation.

  13. Data Assimilation for Wildland Fires: Ensemble Kalman filters in coupled atmosphere-surface models

    CERN Document Server

    Mandel, Jan; Coen, Janice L; Kim, Minjeong

    2007-01-01

    Two wildland fire models are described, one based on reaction-diffusion-convection partial differential equations, and one based on empirical fire spread by the level let method. The level set method model is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model. The regularized and the morphing ensemble Kalman filter are used for data assimilation.

  14. A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Li

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity has been developed for global simulations in the framework of a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM in an Earth System Model (ESM. Burned area in a grid cell is estimated by the product of fire counts and average burned area of a fire. The scheme comprises three parts: fire occurrence, fire spread, and fire impact. In the fire occurrence part, fire counts rather than fire occurrence probability are calculated in order to capture the observed high burned area fraction in areas of high fire frequency and realize parameter calibration based on MODIS fire counts product. In the fire spread part, post-fire region of a fire is assumed to be elliptical in shape. Mathematical properties of ellipses and some mathematical derivations are applied to improve the equation and assumptions of an existing fire spread parameterization. In the fire impact part, trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning are estimated, which offers an interface with atmospheric chemistry and aerosol models in ESMs. In addition, flexible time-step length makes the new fire parameterization easily applied to various DGVMs.

    Global performance of the new fire parameterization is assessed by using an improved version of the Community Land Model version 3 with the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM. Simulations are compared against the latest satellite-based Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFED3 for 1997–2004. Results show that simulated global totals and spatial patterns of burned area and fire carbon emissions, regional totals and spreads of burned area, global annual burned area fractions for various vegetation types, and interannual variability of burned area are reasonable, and closer to GFED3 than CLM-DGVM simulations with the commonly used Glob-FIRM fire parameterization and the old fire module of CLM-DGVM. Furthermore, average error of simulated trace gas and aerosol

  15. A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, F.; Zeng, X. D.; Levis, S.

    2012-07-01

    A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity has been developed for global simulations in the framework of a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) in an Earth System Model (ESM). Burned area in a grid cell is estimated by the product of fire counts and average burned area of a fire. The scheme comprises three parts: fire occurrence, fire spread, and fire impact. In the fire occurrence part, fire counts rather than fire occurrence probability are calculated in order to capture the observed high burned area fraction in areas of high fire frequency and realize parameter calibration based on MODIS fire counts product. In the fire spread part, post-fire region of a fire is assumed to be elliptical in shape. Mathematical properties of ellipses and some mathematical derivations are applied to improve the equation and assumptions of an existing fire spread parameterization. In the fire impact part, trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning are estimated, which offers an interface with atmospheric chemistry and aerosol models in ESMs. In addition, flexible time-step length makes the new fire parameterization easily applied to various DGVMs. Global performance of the new fire parameterization is assessed by using an improved version of the Community Land Model version 3 with the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM). Simulations are compared against the latest satellite-based Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFED3) for 1997-2004. Results show that simulated global totals and spatial patterns of burned area and fire carbon emissions, regional totals and spreads of burned area, global annual burned area fractions for various vegetation types, and interannual variability of burned area are reasonable, and closer to GFED3 than CLM-DGVM simulations with the commonly used Glob-FIRM fire parameterization and the old fire module of CLM-DGVM. Furthermore, average error of simulated trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning

  16. A lattice model for influenza spreading.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Liccardo

    Full Text Available We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1 during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.

  17. Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

    2015-01-01

    An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

  18. Numerical modeling of turbulent combustion and flame spread

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan Zhenghua

    1999-01-01

    Theoretical models have been developed to address several important aspects of numerical modeling of turbulent combustion and flame spread. The developed models include a pyrolysis model for charring and non-charring solid materials, a fast narrow band radiation property evaluation model (FASTNB) and a turbulence model for buoyant flow and flame. In the pyrolysis model, a completely new algorithm has been proposed, where a moving dual mesh concept was developed and implemented. With this new concept, it provides proper spatial resolution for both temperature and density and automatically considers the regression of the surface of the non-charring solid material during its pyrolysis. It is simple, very efficient and applicable to both charring and non-charring materials. FASTNB speeds up significantly the evaluation of narrow band spectral radiation properties and thus provides a potential of applying narrow band model in numerical simulations of practical turbulent combustion. The turbulence model was developed to improve the consideration of buoyancy effect on turbulence and turbulent transport. It was found to be simple, promising and numerically stable. It has been tested against both plane and axisymmetric thermal plumes and an axisymmetric buoyant diffusion flame. When compared with the widely used standard buoyancy-modified {kappa} - {epsilon} model, it gives significant improvement on numerical results. These developed models have been fully incorporated into CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code and coupled with other CFD sub-models, including the DT (Discrete Transfer) radiation model, EDC (Eddy Dissipation Concept) combustion model, flamelet combustion model, various soot models and transpired wall function. Comprehensive numerical simulations have been carried out to study soot formation and oxidation in turbulent buoyant diffusion flames, flame heat transfer and flame spread in fires. The gas temperature and velocity, soot volume fraction, wall

  19. Modeling boreal fire and forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, W. J.; McRae, D. J.; Cantin, A.

    2009-04-01

    The circumpolar boreal forest covers about 1.4 billion ha, representing 1/3 of global forest land. Approximately 2/3 of the boreal forest is located in Eurasia and the remainder in North America. Wildland fires annually burn an estimated 12-20 M ha across the entire boreal region, having a major influence on forest structure and composition. However, fire weather, fire behaviour, and fire ecology differ greatly between the boreal forests in eastern and western hemispheres, which have significant impact on tree survival, post-fire regeneration and forest succession. Every year, wildland fires in Canada and Alaska burn an average of 2-3 M ha, primarily by stand-replacing, high intensity crown fires. By comparison, Russian fires burn about 10-15 M ha annually, primarily by low to moderate intensity surface fires that cause minimal tree mortality. Fire weather conditions in the most fire prone regions of Russia are generally more severe than in similar regions of North America. Finally, the species composition of eastern and western boreal forests is also very different. Russian forests are dominated by larch (30%) and pine (28%) with lower components of spruce (14%) and poplar/birch hardwoods (18%) By contrast, Canadian forests are comprised mainly of spruce (35%), pine (22%), poplar/birch (16%), and fir (9%). All of these factors contribute to the variability in vegetation dynamics occurring within the circumpolar boreal region. This modeling study examines the interactions of fire weather, forest composition, fire behaviour, and fire ecology on forest vegetation dynamics within the boreal region. Similar active fire zones in western Canada and eastern Siberia were used as study sites. Historical weather data were collected for both locations and used to calculate fire weather data, which were used as primary driving variables for the Boreal Fire Effects model (BORFIRE). Fire behaviour was calculated in BORFIRE using data for major tree species at both study sites

  20. Why not use niche modelling for computing risk of wildfires ignition and spreading?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Ferrarini

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A forest fire can be a true ecological calamity, regardless of whether it is caused by natural forces or human actions. Although it is impossible to control nature, it is possible to map wildfire risk zones, and thence minimize the frequency of wildfires and prevent damages. Wildfire risk zones are locations where a fire is likely to start, and from where it can spread to other areas. Predictions of wildfires ignitions are critical aspects of biodiversity conservation and management, and they are only possible when a reliable fire risk zone map is available. I suggest in this paper that wildfire ignition risk computed from points of past wildfires obeys the same conceptual and mathematical rules of niche models commonly applied to points of sampled plants or animals. Therefore, niche modeling can also be an inductive approach for an effective and inexpensive computation of wildfires ignition and spreading likelihood.

  1. Numerical analysis on spreading laws of grassland fire based on fire dynamics simulator (FDS)%基于火灾模拟软件(FDS)的草原火灾蔓延规律数值分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    辛喆; 王顺喜; 云峰; 管清云; 何也能

    2013-01-01

    Grassland is an important land resource in China. Grassland fire is one of the worst natural disasters which threaten the safety of herdsmen’s lives and properties and ecological environment in the country. Due to vast territory, rich combustible and low rainfall of grassland, grassland fire has the features of suddenly happening, huge destruction and large influence area. As to organize fire suppression efficiently and reduce losses from fires, it has important significance to conduct the research on spreading laws of grassland fire under different influencing factors and on forecasting spreading trend of grassland fire duly. The researches on behaviors of grassland and forest fires at home and aboard are mainly based on field observation and laboratory experiments, several important factors being seized through those. Moreover according to laws of statistics and physics, corresponding mathematical models are developed lastly for estimating the properties of wildfires. Researches on spreading laws and models of grassland and forest fires are mainly focused on forest fires at present. Grassland fires are often analyzed on the basis of the existing models of forest fires. In more recent years, it has been adopted by researchers gradually to forecast behaviors of grassland and forest fires with computer simulation. FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) is the software of computational fluid dynamics to simulate fluid-flow in fires developed by NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) in USA. Numerical approach has been developed by the software to solve Navier-Stokes equations of flow of low Mach number. Afterwards gas and process of heat transfer in fires have been calculated especially, through those the producing and move of gas in fires could be tracked and forecasted, so as to calculate the producing and spreading of fires. In the paper, the simplified model of grassland fire has been created for a practical pasture with FDS firstly. Correlation analysis

  2. Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

    2016-04-01

    We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

  3. Optimization of investment economic in PCI using the methodology of benefits design in analysis of the spread of fires with FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) in areas of nuclear fire; Optimizacion de la inversion economica en PCI mediante la metodologia de diseo prestaional en el analisis de la propagacion de incendios con FDS (Fire Dynnamics Simulator) en areas de fuego de centrales nucleares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salellas, J.

    2015-07-01

    Fire simulation analysis allows knowing the evolution and spread fire in areas of interest within a NPP such as control room, cable room and multi zone comportment among others. fires are a main concern regarding safety analysis of NPP. IDOM has the capability to carry out fire simulations, taken in to account smoke control, fire spread, toxicity levels, ventilation and all physical phenomena. As a result, appropriate fire protection measures can be assessed in each scenario. CFD tools applied to fire simulations can determine with higher resolution all damages caused during the fire. Furthermore, such tools can reduce costs due to a lower impact of design modifications. (Author)

  4. Modeling wildland fire propagation using a semi-physical network model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.K. Adou

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a surface wildfire model which can be used to develop and test new firefighting strategies and land use planning practices. This model is simple, easy to implement and can predict the rate of fire spread, the fire contour and both burning and burned areas. It also incorporates weather conditions and land topography. The predictive capability of the model is partially assessed by comparison with data from laboratory-scale and prescribed burning experiments. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the most influential input model parameters controlling fire propagation.

  5. Building fire zone model with symbolic mathematics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武红梅; 郜冶; 周允基

    2009-01-01

    To apply the fire modelling for the fire engineer with symbolic mathematics,the key equations of a zone model were demonstrated. There were thirteen variables with nine constraints,so only four ordinary differential equations (ODEs) were required to solve. A typical fire modelling with two-room structure was studied. Accordingly,the source terms included in the ODEs were simplified and modelled,and the fourth Runge-Kutta method was used to solve the ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with symbolic mathematics. Then a zone model could be used with symbolic mathematics. It is proposed that symbolic mathematics is possible for use by fire engineer.

  6. Modelling unidirectional liquid spreading on slanted microposts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalli, Andrea; Blow, Matthew L.; Yeomans, Julia M.

    2013-01-01

    A lattice Boltzmann algorithm is used to simulate the slow spreading of drops on a surface patterned with slanted micro-posts. Gibb's pinning of the interface on the sides or top of the posts leads to unidirectional spreading over a wide range of contact angles and inclination angles of the posts...

  7. Discrete Modeling of the Worm Spread with Random Scanning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchida, Masato

    In this paper, we derive a set of discrete time difference equations that models the spreading process of computer worms such as Code-Red and Slammer, which uses a common strategy called “random scanning” to spread through the Internet. We show that the derived set of discrete time difference equations has an exact relationship with the Kermack and McKendrick susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model, which is known as a standard continuous time model for worm spreading.

  8. Default Spread dan Term Spread sebagai Variabel Proxy Siklus Bisnis pada Model Fama-French

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Hendra

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to apply the Fama-French models and test the effect of alternative variable of bond yield spread, default spread (RBBB – RAAA and RAAA – RF, and the term spread (RSUN10-RSUN1, as proxy variables of the business cycle, in IDX stock data during 2005-2010. Four types of asset pricing models tested are Sharpe-Lintner CAPM, Fama-French models, Hwang et al.model, and hybrid model. The results showed that the size effect and value effect has an impact on excess stock returns. Slopes of market beta, SMB, and HML are more sensitive to stock big size and high B / M. Default spreads and term spreads in Hwang et al. model can explain the value effect, and weakly explain the size effect, meanwhile the power of explanation disappeared on Hybrid models. Based on the assessment adjusted R2 and the frequency of rejection of non-zero alpha, is found that the hybrid model is the most suitable model.  

  9. Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; William E. Mell; Peter McCauley

    2011-01-01

    Crownfire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (...

  10. Simulation analysis of the spread of fire through the program Fire Dynamics Simulator FDS in areas of fire of nuclear power plants; Analisis de simulacion de la propagacion de incendios mediante el programa Fire Dynamics Simulator FDS en areas de fuego de Centrales Nucleares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salellas, J.; Zamora, I.; Fabbri, M.; Colomer, C.; Castillo, R.; Fradera, J.

    2014-07-01

    The objective of the analysis of the spread of fire through Computational Fluid Dynamics simulation with the Fire Dynamics Simulator program is to determine the identification of the affected computers and determine the livability in the areas of fire as fire postulates. The simulation with Fire Dynamics Simulator allows the evolution and spread of flame and smoke behavior in an instant in time, determining the exact moment that damage is caused by radiation or temperature to equipment and operation according to the level of toxicity and temperature of the fire area. (Author)

  11. Probing models of information spreading in social networks

    CERN Document Server

    Zoller, J

    2014-01-01

    We apply signal processing analysis to the information spreading in scale-free network. To reproduce typical behaviors obtained from the analysis of information spreading in the world wide web we use a modified SIS model where synergy effects and influential nodes are taken into account. This model depends on a single free parameter that characterize the memory-time of the spreading process. We show that by means of fractal analysis it is possible -from aggregated easily accessible data- to gain information on the memory time of the underlying mechanism driving the information spreading process.

  12. Modelling the probability of building fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojtěch Barták

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.

  13. Potential economic impact of introduction and spread of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutrich, J.J.; VanGelder, E.; Loope, L.

    2007-01-01

    Globally, many invasive alien species have caused extensive ecological and economic damage from either accidental or intentional introduction. The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, has created billions of dollars in costs annually, spreading as an invasive species across the southern United States. In 1998, the red imported fire ant spread into California creating a highly probable future introduction via shipped products to Hawaii. This paper presents the estimation of potential economic impacts of the red imported fire ant (RIFA) to the state of Hawaii. Evaluation of impacts focuses on the economic sectors of (1) households, (2) agriculture (cattle and crop production), (3) infrastructure (cemeteries, churches, cities, electrical, telephone, and cable services, highways, hospitals and schools), (4) recreation, tourism and business (hotels/resort areas, golf courses, commercial businesses and tourists), and (5) government expenditures (with minimal intervention). The full annual economic costs of the red imported fire ant to Hawaii are estimated (in US$ 2006) to be $211 million/year, comprised of $77 million in damages and expenditures and $134 million in foregone outdoor opportunities to households and tourists. The present value of the projected costs of RIFA over a 20-year period after introduction total $2.5 billion. RIFA invasions across the globe indicate that economic cost-effective action in Hawaii entails implementation of prevention, early detection and rapid response treatment programs for RIFA. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Geospatial modeling of fire-size distributions in historical low-severity fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenzie, D.; Kellogg, L. B.; Larkin, N. K.

    2006-12-01

    Low-severity fires are recorded by fire-scarred trees. These records can provide temporal depth for reconstructing fire history because one tree may record dozens of separate fires over time, thereby providing adequate sample size for estimating fire frequency. Estimates of actual fire perimeters from these point-based records are uncertain, however, because fire boundaries can only be located approximately. We indirectly estimate fire-size distributions without attempting to establish individual fire perimeters. The slope and intercept of the interval-area function, a power-law relationship between sample area and mean fire-free intervals for that area, provide surrogates for the moments of a fire-size distribution, given a distribution of fire- free intervals. Analogously, by deconstructing variograms that use a binary distance measure (Sorensen's index) for the similarity of the time-series of fires recorded by pairs of recorder trees, we provide estimates of modal fire size. We link both variograms and interval-area functions to fire size distributions by simulating fire size distributions on neutral landscapes with and without right- censoring to represent topographic controls on maximum fire size. From parameters of the two functions produced by simulations we can back-estimate means and variances of fire sizes on real landscapes. This scale-based modeling provides a robust alternative to empirical and heuristic methods and a means to extrapolate estimates of fire-size distributions to unsampled landscapes.

  15. Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hal E. Anderson

    1982-01-01

    Presents photographs of wildland vegetation appropriate for the 13 fuel models used in mathematical models of fire behavior. Fuel model descriptions include fire behavior associated with each fuel and its physical characteristics. A similarity chart cross-references the 13 fire behavior fuel models to the 20 fuel models used in the National Fire Danger Rating System....

  16. Laboratory Modeling of Aspects of Large Fires,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-04-30

    7 -7 g~L AD-A153 152 DNA-TR- 84-18 LABORATORY MODELING OF ASPECTS OF LARGE FIRES G.F. Carrier "URARY F.E. Fendell b DVSO R.D. Fleeter N. Got L.M...I1I TITLE (include Socurty Olassihicarion) LABORATORY MODELING OF ASPECTS OF LARGE FIRES 12. PERSONAL AUrHoR(S G.F. Carrier F.E. Fendell R.D. Fleeter N...Motorbuch Verlag.___ Caidin, M. (1960). A Torch to the Enemy: the Fire Raid on Tokyo. New York, NY: Ballantine. Carrier, G. F., Fendell , F. E., and

  17. Statistical analysis and model of spread F occurrence in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The spread F data obtained over Lanzhou (36.1°N,103.9°E),Chongqing (29.5°N,106.4°E) and Haikou (20.0°N,110.3°E) of China during the period from 1978 to 1997 are used to analyze the occurrence characteristics.The statistical results show that the post midnight spread F occurrence is maximum during the summer solstice months of the lower solar activity period,while post sunset spread F is dominant in equinoxes of higher solar activity period over Haikou station.Over Chongqing and Lanzhou stations,spread F mostly occurs at post midnight and relates negatively with solar activity.Using regression method and Fourier expansion,the preliminary single-station model of spread F occurrence is established and the accuracy of the model is evaluated.

  18. Development of a Base Model for the New Fire PSA Training

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kilyoo; Kang, Daeil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Wee Kyong; Do, Kyu Sik [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-05-15

    US NRC/EPRI issued a new fire PSA method represented by NUREG/CR 6850, and have been training many operators and inspectors to widely spread the new method. However, there is a limitation in time and efficiency for many foreigners, who generally have communication problem, to participate in the EPRI/NRC training to learn the new method. Since it is about time to introduce the new fire PSA method as a regulatory requirement for the fire protection in Korea, a simple and easy-understandable base model for the fire PSA training is required, and KAERI-KINS is jointly preparing the base model for the new fire PSA training. This paper describes how the base model is developed. Using an imaginary simple NPP, a base model of fire PSA following the new fire PSA method was developed in two ways from the internal PSA model. Since we have the base model and know the process of making the fire PSA model, the training for the new fire PSA method can be in detail performed in Korea.

  19. Fire modeling of the Heiss Dampf Reaktor containment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolette, V.F. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, K.T. [Notre Dame Univ., IN (United States)

    1995-09-01

    This report summarizes Sandia National Laboratories` participation in the fire modeling activities for the German Heiss Dampf Reaktor (HDR) containment building, under the sponsorship of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The purpose of this report is twofold: (1) to summarize Sandia`s participation in the HDR fire modeling efforts and (2) to summarize the results of the international fire modeling community involved in modeling the HDR fire tests. Additional comments, on the state of fire modeling and trends in the international fire modeling community are also included. It is noted that, although the trend internationally in fire modeling is toward the development of the more complex fire field models, each type of fire model has something to contribute to the understanding of fires in nuclear power plants.

  20. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  1. Modeling universal dynamics of cell spreading on elastic substrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Houfu; Li, Shaofan

    2015-11-01

    A three-dimensional (3D) multiscale moving contact line model is combined with a soft matter cell model to study the universal dynamics of cell spreading over elastic substrates. We have studied both the early stage and the late stage cell spreading by taking into account the actin tension effect. In this work, the cell is modeled as an active nematic droplet, and the substrate is modeled as a St. Venant Kirchhoff elastic medium. A complete 3D simulation of cell spreading has been carried out. The simulation results show that the spreading area versus spreading time at different stages obeys specific power laws, which is in good agreement with experimental data and theoretical prediction reported in the literature. Moreover, the simulation results show that the substrate elasticity may affect force dipole distribution inside the cell. The advantage of this approach is that it combines the hydrodynamics of actin retrograde flow with moving contact line model so that it can naturally include actin tension effect resulting from actin polymerization and actomyosin contraction, and thus it might be capable of simulating complex cellular scale phenomenon, such as cell spreading or even crawling.

  2. CYCLOSTATIONARY MODEL IN DS SPREAD SPECTRUM COMMUNICATION SYSTEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gong Xiangyang; Hu Guangrui

    2002-01-01

    During the past research, Direct Sequence (DS) Spread Spectrum (SS) signal is modeled as stationary in most cases. Cyclostationary model for SS signal is introduced in this letter. Compared with stationary model, cyclostationary model can preserve more information,and its advantages are shown through example.

  3. CYCLOSTATIONARY MODEL IN DS SPREAD SPECTRUM COMMUNICATION SYSTEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GongXiangyang; HuGuangrui

    2002-01-01

    During the past research,Direct Sequence(DS) Spread Spectrum(SS) signal is modeled as stationary in most cases.Cyclostationary model for SS signal is introduced in this letter.Compared with stationary model,cyclostationary model can preserve more information,and its advantages are shown throrgh example.

  4. Agent-based modeling to simulate the dengue spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chengbin; Tao, Haiyan; Ye, Zhiwei

    2008-10-01

    In this paper, we introduce a novel method ABM in simulating the unique process for the dengue spread. Dengue is an acute infectious disease with a long history of over 200 years. Unlike the diseases that can be transmitted directly from person to person, dengue spreads through a must vector of mosquitoes. There is still no any special effective medicine and vaccine for dengue up till now. The best way to prevent dengue spread is to take precautions beforehand. Thus, it is crucial to detect and study the dynamic process of dengue spread that closely relates to human-environment interactions where Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) effectively works. The model attempts to simulate the dengue spread in a more realistic way in the bottom-up way, and to overcome the limitation of ABM, namely overlooking the influence of geographic and environmental factors. Considering the influence of environment, Aedes aegypti ecology and other epidemiological characteristics of dengue spread, ABM can be regarded as a useful way to simulate the whole process so as to disclose the essence of the evolution of dengue spread.

  5. A Study on Spreading Direction of Coal-fire Based with TIR Remote Sensing in Wuda Coalfield from 2000 to 2006, Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, H.-Y.; Jiang, X.-G.; Song, X.-F.; Ni, Z.-Y.; Gao, C.-X.; Zhang, Y.-Z.; Liu, L.

    2014-03-01

    Coal fires are a common and serious problem in most coal producing countries. Coal fires could not only lead to a huge loss of non-renewable energy resources, but it also can cause many environmental problems such as GHG emission, land subsidence and increment of surface temperature. So it is very important to monitor the dynamic changes of coal fires. As far as large scale coal field, remote sensing provided researchers with a new and useful technique for coal fire detection. This paper developed a research over coal fire spreading direction using a multi-temporal TIR remote sensing approach. The results successfully showed that the direction of coal fire spreading and predicted the coal fire direction of development on a regional scale or on a whole coal field scale, and a quantitative analysis of coal fires was made in the research. The results showed that the coal fires had an average annual increase of 0.5 million square meters from 1999 to 2006, and the TIR remote sensing proved to be an available tool for coal fire mapping and prediction of coal fire development.

  6. Physical characteristics of shrub and conifer fuels for fire behavior models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan R. Gallacher; Thomas H. Fletcher; Victoria Lansinger; Sydney Hansen; Taylor Ellsworth; David R. Weise

    2017-01-01

    The physical properties and dimensions of foliage are necessary inputs for some fire spread models. Currently, almost no data exist on these plant characteristics to fill this need. In this report, we measured the physical properties and dimensions of the foliage from 10 live shrub and conifer fuels throughout a 1-year period. We developed models to predict relative...

  7. Fire disturbance and vegetation dynamics : analysis and models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thonicke, Kirsten

    2003-04-01

    Studies of the role of disturbance in vegetation or ecosystems showed that disturbances are an essential and intrinsic element of ecosystems that contribute substantially to ecosystem health, to structural diversity of ecosystems and to nutrient cycling at the local as well as global level. Fire as a grassland, bush or forest fire is a special disturbance agent, since it is caused by biotic as well abiotic environmental factors. Fire affects biogeochemical cycles and plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry by releasing climate-sensitive trace gases and aerosols, and thus in the global carbon cycle by releasing approximately 3.9 Gt C p.a. through biomass burning. A combined model to describe effects and feedbacks between fire and vegetation became relevant as changes in fire regimes due to land use and land management were observed and the global dimension of biomass burnt as an important carbon flux to the atmosphere, its influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate as well as vegetation dynamics were emphasized. The existing modelling approaches would not allow these investigations. As a consequence, an optimal set of variables that best describes fire occurrence, fire spread and its effects in ecosystems had to be defined, which can simulate observed fire regimes and help to analyse interactions between fire and vegetation dynamics as well as to allude to the reasons behind changing fire regimes. Especially, dynamic links between vegetation, climate and fire processes are required to analyse dynamic feedbacks and effects of changes of single environmental factors. This led us to the point, where new fire models had to be developed that would allow the investigations, mentioned above, and could help to improve our understanding of the role of fire in global ecology. In conclusion of the thesis, one can state that moisture conditions, its persistence over time and fuel load are the important components that describe global fire pattern. If time series of

  8. Modelling spreading dynamics of liquid crystals in three spatial dimensions

    CERN Document Server

    Lin, Te-Sheng; Thiele, Uwe; Cummings, Linda J

    2013-01-01

    We study spreading dynamics of nematic liquid crystal droplets within the framework of the long-wave approximation. A fourth order nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation governing the free surface evolution is derived. The influence of elastic distortion energy and of imposed anchoring variations at the substrate are explored through linear stability analysis and scaling arguments, which yield useful insight and predictions for the behaviour of spreading droplets. This behaviour is captured by fully nonlinear time-dependent simulations of three dimensional droplets spreading in the presence of anchoring variations that model simple defects in the nematic orientation at the substrate.

  9. Rumor Spreading Model with Trust Mechanism in Complex Social Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Ya-Qi; YANG Xiao-Yuan; HAN Yi-Liang; WANG Xu-An

    2013-01-01

    In this paper,to study rumor spreading,we propose a novel susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model by introducing the trust mechanism.We derive mean-field equations that describe the dynamics of the SIR model on homogeneous networks and inhomogeneous networks.Then a steady-state analysis is conducted to investigate the critical threshold and the final size of the rumor spreading.We show that the introduction of trust mechanism reduces the final rumor size and the velocity of rumor spreading,but increases the critical thresholds on both networks.Moreover,the trust mechanism not only greatly reduces the maximum rumor influence,but also postpones the rumor terminal time,which provides us with more time to take measures to control the rumor spreading.The theoretical results are confirmed by sufficient numerical simulations.

  10. Review of UCN 5,6 Fire PSA Model based on ANS Fire PRA Standard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Joon Eon; Lee, Yoon Hwan

    2006-12-15

    Recently, under the de-regulation environment, nuclear industry has attempted various approaches to improve the economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). This approach uses the fire risk and performance information to manage the resources effectively and efficiently that are used in the operation of NPP. In fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation, fire PSA quality is one of the most important things. The nuclear industry and regulatory body of U.S.A have developed a measure to evaluate the quality of fire PSA. ANS (American Nuclear Society) has developed a guidance called 'ANS Fire PRA Methodology Standard'. However, in Korea, there have been no attempts to evaluate the quality of fire PSA model itself. Therefore, we cannot be sure about the quality of fire PSA whether or not the present fire PSA model can be used for the risk-informed applications such as mentioned above. We can say that the evaluation of fire PSA model quality is the basis for the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation. In this report, we have evaluated the quality of fire PSA model for Ulchin 5 and 6 units based on the ANS Fire PRA Standard. We, also, have derived what items are to be improved to upgrade the quality of fire PSA model and how it can be improved. This report can be used as the base of the fire risk informed/performance-based decision/operation work in Korea.

  11. Axisymmetric model of drop spreading on a horizontal surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mistry, Aashutosh; Muralidhar, K.

    2015-09-01

    Spreading of an initially spherical liquid drop over a textured surface is analyzed by solving an integral form of the governing equations. The mathematical model extends Navier-Stokes equations by including surface tension at the gas-liquid boundary and a force distribution at the three phase contact line. While interfacial tension scales with drop curvature, the motion of the contact line depends on the departure of instantaneous contact angle from its equilibrium value. The numerical solution is obtained by discretizing the spreading drop into disk elements. The Bond number range considered is 0.01-1. Results obtained for sessile drops are in conformity with limiting cases reported in the literature [J. C. Bird et al., "Short-time dynamics of partial wetting," Phys. Rev. Lett. 100, 234501 (2008)]. They further reveal multiple time scales that are reported in experiments [K. G. Winkels et al., "Initial spreading of low-viscosity drops on partially wetting surfaces," Phys. Rev. E 85, 055301 (2012) and A. Eddi et al., "Short time dynamics of viscous drop spreading," Phys. Fluids 25, 013102 (2013)]. Spreading of water and glycerin drops over fully and partially wetting surfaces is studied in terms of excess pressure, wall shear stress, and the dimensions of the footprint. Contact line motion is seen to be correctly captured in the simulations. Water drops show oscillations during spreading while glycerin spreads uniformly over the surface.

  12. A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric L. Smith

    1987-01-01

    Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...

  13. WRF-Fire Applied in Bulgaria

    OpenAIRE

    Dobrinkova, Nina; Jordanov, Georgi; Mandel, Jan

    2010-01-01

    WRF-Fire consists of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) coupled with a fire spread model, based on the level-set method. We describe a preliminary application of WRF-Fire to a forest fire in Bulgaria, oportunities for research of forest fire models for Bulgaria, and plans for the development of an Environmental Decision Support Systems which includes computational modeling of fire behavior.

  14. Epidemiological models for the spread of anti-malarial resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antia R

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The spread of drug resistance is making malaria control increasingly difficult. Mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of drug sensitive and resistant strains can be a useful tool to help to understand the factors that influence the spread of drug resistance, and they can therefore help in the design of rational strategies for the control of drug resistance. Methods We present an epidemiological framework to investigate the spread of anti-malarial resistance. Several mathematical models, based on the familiar Macdonald-Ross model of malaria transmission, enable us to examine the processes and parameters that are critical in determining the spread of resistance. Results In our simplest model, resistance does not spread if the fraction of infected individuals treated is less than a threshold value; if drug treatment exceeds this threshold, resistance will eventually become fixed in the population. The threshold value is determined only by the rates of infection and the infectious periods of resistant and sensitive parasites in untreated and treated hosts, whereas the intensity of transmission has no influence on the threshold value. In more complex models, where hosts can be infected by multiple parasite strains or where treatment varies spatially, resistance is generally not fixed, but rather some level of sensitivity is often maintained in the population. Conclusions The models developed in this paper are a first step in understanding the epidemiology of anti-malarial resistance and evaluating strategies to reduce the spread of resistance. However, specific recommendations for the management of resistance need to wait until we have more data on the critical parameters underlying the spread of resistance: drug use, spatial variability of treatment and parasite migration among areas, and perhaps most importantly, cost of resistance.

  15. Modelling of spreading process: effect from hydrogen bonds

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Xin; Hu Yuan-Zhong; Jiang Lan

    2008-01-01

    Lubricant spreading on solid substrates has drawn considerable attention not only for the microscopic wetting theory but also for the dramatic application in head-disk interface of magnetic storage drive systems. Molecular dynamic simulation based on a coarse-grained bead-spring model has been used to study such a spreading process.The spreading profiles indicate that the hydrogen bonds among lubricant molecules and the hydrogen bonds between lubricant molecules and polar atoms of solid substrates will complicate the spreading process in a tremendous degree.The hydrogen bonds among lubricant molecules will strengthen the lubricant combination intensity, which may hinder most molecules from flowing down to the substrates and diffusing along the substrates. And the hydrogen bonds between lubricant molecules and polar atoms of solid substrates will confine the lubricant molecules around polar atoms, which may hinder the molecules from diffusing along the substrates and cause precursor film to vanish.

  16. The SIRS Model of Epidemic Spreading in Virtual Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A.; Kosiński, R.

    2008-09-01

    Dedicated to Professor Dietrich Stauffer on the occasion of his 65th birthday The phenomenon of epidemic spreading in a real social network is described and investigated numerically. On the basis of data concerning amount of time devoted daily to social interactions, the influence of human activity on spreading process is investigated in the frame of SIRS model. It was found that the activity of an individual is positively correlated with its connectivity and the relation has power law form. The influence of control measures on the spreading process is investigated as a function of initial conditions. The cost-effectiveness of mass immunizations campaigns and target vaccinations is compared. It was found that the form of activity distribution has significant influence on the spreading phenomena in the network.

  17. SPITFIRE-2: an improved fire module for Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pfeiffer

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Fire is the primary disturbance factor in many terrestrial ecosystems. Wildfire alters vegetation structure and composition, affects carbon storage and biogeochemical cycling, and results in the release of climatically relevant trace gases, including CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and aerosols. Assessing the impacts of global wildfire on centennial to multi-millennial timescales requires the linkage of process-based fire modeling with vegetation modeling using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs. Here we present a new fire module, SPITFIRE-2, and an update to the LPJ-DGVM that includes major improvements to the way in which fire occurrence, behavior, and the effect of fire on vegetation is simulated. The new fire module includes explicit calculation of natural ignitions, the representation of multi-day burning and coalescence of fires and the calculation of rates of spread in different vegetation types, as well as a simple scheme to model crown fires. We describe a new representation of anthropogenic biomass burning under preindustrial conditions that distinguishes the way in which the relationship between humans and fire are different between hunter-gatherers, obligate pastoralists, and farmers. Where and when available, we evaluate our model simulations against remote-sensing based estimates of burned area. While wildfire in much of the modern world is largely influenced by anthropogenic suppression and ignitions, in those parts of the world where natural fire is still the dominant process, e.g. in remote areas of the boreal forest, our results demonstrate a significant improvement in simulated burned area over previous models. With its unique properties of being able to simulate preindustrial fire, the new module we present here is particularly well suited for the investigation of climate-human-fire relationships on multi-millennial timescales.

  18. SPITFIRE-2: an improved fire module for Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, M.; Kaplan, J. O.

    2012-08-01

    Fire is the primary disturbance factor in many terrestrial ecosystems. Wildfire alters vegetation structure and composition, affects carbon storage and biogeochemical cycling, and results in the release of climatically relevant trace gases, including CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and aerosols. Assessing the impacts of global wildfire on centennial to multi-millennial timescales requires the linkage of process-based fire modeling with vegetation modeling using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Here we present a new fire module, SPITFIRE-2, and an update to the LPJ-DGVM that includes major improvements to the way in which fire occurrence, behavior, and the effect of fire on vegetation is simulated. The new fire module includes explicit calculation of natural ignitions, the representation of multi-day burning and coalescence of fires and the calculation of rates of spread in different vegetation types, as well as a simple scheme to model crown fires. We describe a new representation of anthropogenic biomass burning under preindustrial conditions that distinguishes the way in which the relationship between humans and fire are different between hunter-gatherers, obligate pastoralists, and farmers. Where and when available, we evaluate our model simulations against remote-sensing based estimates of burned area. While wildfire in much of the modern world is largely influenced by anthropogenic suppression and ignitions, in those parts of the world where natural fire is still the dominant process, e.g. in remote areas of the boreal forest, our results demonstrate a significant improvement in simulated burned area over previous models. With its unique properties of being able to simulate preindustrial fire, the new module we present here is particularly well suited for the investigation of climate-human-fire relationships on multi-millennial timescales.

  19. Experimental investigation of foam spread and extinguishment of the large-scale methanol pool fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qinglin; Wang, Lu; Bi, Yixing; Xu, Dajun; Zhi, Huiqiang; Qiu, Peifang

    2015-04-28

    A steel channel with the size of 30m×2 m×1.2m has been made to simulate the full surface fire of a 50,000m(3) methanol tank. Several large-scale methanol fire extinguishment experiments have been conducted under different foam application rates and foam concentrations in order to investigate the flow length, flow velocity and fire extinguishing effectiveness of the alcohol-resistant foam. The result showed that the alcohol-resistant aqueous film forming foam (AFFF/AR) and alcohol-resistant fluoro-protein foam (FP/AR) could flow beyond 30m on the burning methanol surface and extinguish the fire successfully even with the foam application rate of 4Lmin(-1)m(-2). Under the same condition, the fire extinguishing performance of AFFF/AR was better than FP/AR, and the flow velocity of AFFF/AR on the burning methanol surface was 0.203ms(-1), while the value of FP/AR was 0.082ms(-1).

  20. Reconstructing parameters of spreading models from partial observations

    CERN Document Server

    Lokhov, Andrey Y

    2016-01-01

    Spreading processes are often modelled as a stochastic dynamics occurring on top of a given network with edge weights corresponding to the transmission probabilities. Knowledge of veracious transmission probabilities is essential for prediction, optimization, and control of diffusion dynamics. Unfortunately, in most cases the transmission rates are unknown and need to be reconstructed from the spreading data. Moreover, in realistic settings it is impossible to monitor the state of each node at every time, and thus the data is highly incomplete. We introduce an efficient dynamic message-passing algorithm, which is able to reconstruct parameters of the spreading model given only partial information on the activation times of nodes in the network. The method is generalizable to a large class of dynamic models, as well to the case of temporal graphs.

  1. Numerical Simulation of Multistory Building Fire with Zone—Modeling Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FuZhuman; FanWeicheng

    1996-01-01

    Based on the basic idea of zone modeling method,a two-layer zone model is developed and programmed to calculate the fire growth and smoke spread in a multi-room buiding subjected to a fire.The related predictive equations,numerical simulation method and sub-models implemented in this model are concisely described.A set of experimental data from Cooper's work at NIST for a two-room compartment fire are chosen for comparison with the model and program,and the numerical results fundamentally agree well with the experimental data,Then,an example of numerical calculation of a two-stoy duilding fire is presented,and the relevant output results are given and analyzed.

  2. Epidemic Modelling by Ripple-Spreading Network and Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Qin Liao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical analysis and modelling is central to infectious disease epidemiology. This paper, inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon, proposes a novel ripple-spreading network model for the study of infectious disease transmission. The new epidemic model naturally has good potential for capturing many spatial and temporal features observed in the outbreak of plagues. In particular, using a stochastic ripple-spreading process simulates the effect of random contacts and movements of individuals on the probability of infection well, which is usually a challenging issue in epidemic modeling. Some ripple-spreading related parameters such as threshold and amplifying factor of nodes are ideal to describe the importance of individuals’ physical fitness and immunity. The new model is rich in parameters to incorporate many real factors such as public health service and policies, and it is highly flexible to modifications. A genetic algorithm is used to tune the parameters of the model by referring to historic data of an epidemic. The well-tuned model can then be used for analyzing and forecasting purposes. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by simulation results.

  3. Quantifying soil burn severity for hydrologic modeling to assess post-fire effects on sediment delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobre, Mariana; Brooks, Erin; Lew, Roger; Kolden, Crystal; Quinn, Dylan; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a secondary fire effect with great implications for many ecosystem resources. Depending on the burn severity, topography, and the weather immediately after the fire, soil erosion can impact municipal water supplies, degrade water quality, and reduce reservoirs' storage capacity. Scientists and managers use field and remotely sensed data to quickly assess post-fire burn severity in ecologically-sensitive areas. From these assessments, mitigation activities are implemented to minimize post-fire flood and soil erosion and to facilitate post-fire vegetation recovery. Alternatively, land managers can use fire behavior and spread models (e.g. FlamMap, FARSITE, FOFEM, or CONSUME) to identify sensitive areas a priori, and apply strategies such as fuel reduction treatments to proactively minimize the risk of wildfire spread and increased burn severity. There is a growing interest in linking fire behavior and spread models with hydrology-based soil erosion models to provide site-specific assessment of mitigation treatments on post-fire runoff and erosion. The challenge remains, however, that many burn severity mapping and modeling products quantify vegetation loss rather than measuring soil burn severity. Wildfire burn severity is spatially heterogeneous and depends on the pre-fire vegetation cover, fuel load, topography, and weather. Severities also differ depending on the variable of interest (e.g. soil, vegetation). In the United States, Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps, derived from Landsat satellite images, are used as an initial burn severity assessment. BARC maps are classified from either a Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) or differenced Normalized Burned Ratio (dNBR) scene into four classes (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High severity). The development of soil burn severity maps requires further manual field validation efforts to transform the BARC maps into a product more applicable for post-fire soil rehabilitation activities

  4. Modelling spread of Bluetongue in Denmark: The code

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare

    This technical report was produced to make public the code produced as the main project of the PhD project by Kaare Græsbøll, with the title: "Modelling spread of Bluetongue and other vector borne diseases in Denmark and evaluation of intervention strategies".......This technical report was produced to make public the code produced as the main project of the PhD project by Kaare Græsbøll, with the title: "Modelling spread of Bluetongue and other vector borne diseases in Denmark and evaluation of intervention strategies"....

  5. Characteristic Analysis of Fire Modeling Codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jong Hoon [Kyeongmin College, Ujeongbu (Korea, Republic of)

    2004-04-15

    This report documents and compares key features of four zone models: CFAST, COMPBRN IIIE, MAGIC and the Fire Induced Vulnerability Evaluation (FIVE) methodology. CFAST and MAGIC handle multi-compartment, multi-fire problems, using many equations; COMPBRN and FIVE handle single compartment, single fire source problems, using simpler equation. The increased rigor of the formulation of CFAST and MAGIC does not mean that these codes are more accurate in every domain; for instance, the FIVE methodology uses a single zone approximation with a plume/ceiling jet sublayer, while the other models use a two-zone treatment without a plume/ceiling jet sublayer. Comparisons with enclosure fire data indicate that inclusion of plume/ceiling jet sublayer temperatures is more conservative, and generally more accurate than neglecting them. Adding a plume/ceiling jet sublayer to the two-zone models should be relatively straightforward, but it has not been done yet for any of the two-zone models. Such an improvement is in progress for MAGIC.

  6. Modeling pyrolysis of charring material in fire

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    A modified model of pyrolysis for charring materials in fire has been proposed in this note. In this model some special factors which show the effect on pyrolysis are considered, i.e. heat loss by convection and radiation caused by surface temperature rise and shrinkage of char surface are considered. Experimental device is designed specially for validating the reliability of the model. Effects of density of materials and heat radiation on pyrolysis of materials have also been investigated.

  7. Web malware spread modelling and optimal control strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wanping; Zhong, Shouming

    2017-02-01

    The popularity of the Web improves the growth of web threats. Formulating mathematical models for accurate prediction of malicious propagation over networks is of great importance. The aim of this paper is to understand the propagation mechanisms of web malware and the impact of human intervention on the spread of malicious hyperlinks. Considering the characteristics of web malware, a new differential epidemic model which extends the traditional SIR model by adding another delitescent compartment is proposed to address the spreading behavior of malicious links over networks. The spreading threshold of the model system is calculated, and the dynamics of the model is theoretically analyzed. Moreover, the optimal control theory is employed to study malware immunization strategies, aiming to keep the total economic loss of security investment and infection loss as low as possible. The existence and uniqueness of the results concerning the optimality system are confirmed. Finally, numerical simulations show that the spread of malware links can be controlled effectively with proper control strategy of specific parameter choice.

  8. Modeling regional-scale wildland fire emissions with the wildland fire emissions information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nancy H.F. French; Donald McKenzie; Tyler Erickson; Benjamin Koziol; Michael Billmire; K. Endsley; Naomi K.Y. Scheinerman; Liza Jenkins; Mary E. Miller; Roger Ottmar; Susan Prichard

    2014-01-01

    As carbon modeling tools become more comprehensive, spatial data are needed to improve quantitative maps of carbon emissions from fire. The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS) provides mapped estimates of carbon emissions from historical forest fires in the United States through a web browser. WFEIS improves access to data and provides a consistent...

  9. CFD Modeling of Melt Spreading on the Reactor Cavity Floor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeon, Wan Sik; Bang, Kwang Hyun [Korea Maritime University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Young Jo; Lee, Jae Gon [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-05-15

    In the very unlikely event of a severe reactor accident involving core melt and reactor pressure vessel failure, it is important to provide an accident management strategy that would allow the molten core material to cool down, resolidify and bring the core debris to a stable coolable state for Light Water Reactors (LWRs). One approach to achieve a stable coolable state is to quench the core melt after its relocation from the reactor pressure vessel into the reactor cavity. This approach typically requires a large cavity floor area on which a large amount of core melt spreads well and forms a shallow melt thickness for small thermal resistance across the melt pool. Spreading of high temperature (approx3000 K), low superheat (approx200 K) core melt over a wide cavity floor has been a key question to the success of the ex-vessel core coolability and it has brought a number of experimental work (CORINE, ECOKATS, VULCANO) and analytical work (CORFLOW, MELTSPREAD, THEMA). These computational models are currently able to predict well the spreading of stimulant materials but yet have shown a limitation for prototypic core melt of UO{sub 2}+ZrO{sub 2} mixture. A computational model for the melt spreading requires a multiphase treatment of liquid melt, solidified melt, and air. Also solidification and thermal radiation physics should be included. The present work uses ANSYS-CFX code to simulate core melt spreading on the reactor cavity. The CFX code is a general-purpose multiphase code and the present work is focused on exploring the code's capability to model melt spreading problem in a step by step approach

  10. Ripple-Spreading Network Model Optimization by Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Bing Hu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Small-world and scale-free properties are widely acknowledged in many real-world complex network systems, and many network models have been developed to capture these network properties. The ripple-spreading network model (RSNM is a newly reported complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon on clam water surface. The RSNM exhibits good potential for describing both spatial and temporal features in the development of many real-world networks where the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes and then largely determines the final network topology. However, the relationships between ripple-spreading related parameters (RSRPs of RSNM and small-world and scale-free topologies are not as obvious or straightforward as in many other network models. This paper attempts to apply genetic algorithm (GA to tune the values of RSRPs, so that the RSNM may generate these two most important network topologies. The study demonstrates that, once RSRPs are properly tuned by GA, the RSNM is capable of generating both network topologies and therefore has a great flexibility to study many real-world complex network systems.

  11. Modelling the Spread of HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huang Qing-dao

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model for the spread of HIV/AIDS in a variable size population through horizontal transmission is considered. The existence of a threshold parameter, the basic reproduction number, is established, and the stability of both the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is discussed in terms of R0.

  12. SIS model of epidemic spreading on dynamical networks with community

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chengyi XIA; Shiwen SUN; Feng RAO; Junqing SUN; Jinsong WANG; Zengqiang CHEN

    2009-01-01

    We present a new epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model to investigate the spreading behav-ior on networks with dynamical topology and community structure. Individuals in the model are mobile agents who are allowed to perform the inter-community (i.e., long-range) motion with the probability p. The mean-field theory is uti-lized to derive the critical threshold (λ_C) of epidemic spread-ing inside separate communities and the influence of the long-range motion on the epidemic spreading. The results indicate that λ_C is only related with the population density within the community, and the long-range motion will make the original disease-free community become the endemic state. Large-scale numerical simulations also demonstrate the theoretical approximations based on our new epidemic model. The current model and analysis will help us to fur-ther understand the propagation behavior of real epidemics taking place on social networks.

  13. Term structure of sovereign spreads: a contingent claim model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katia Rocha

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a simple structural model to estimate the termstructure and the implied default probability of a selected group of emerging countries, which account for 54% of the JPMorgan EMBIG index on average for the period 2000-2005. The real exchange rate dynamic, modeled as a pure diffusion process, is assumed to trigger default. The calibrated model generates sovereign spread curves consistent to market data. The results suggest that the market is systematically overpricing spreads for Brazil in 100 basis points, whereas for Mexico, Russia and Turkey the model is able to reproduce the market behavior.Este trabalho propõe um modelo estrutural para estimar a estrutura a termo e a probabilidade implícita de default de países emergentes que representam, em média, 54% do índice EMBIG do JPMorgan no período de 2000-2005. A taxa de câmbio real, modelada como um processo de difusão simples, é considerada como indicativa de default. O modelo calibrado gera a estrutura a termo dos spreads consistente com dados de mercado, indicando que o mercado sistematicamente sobre-estima os spreads para o Brasil em 100 pontos base na média, enquanto para México, Rússia e Turquia reproduz o comportamento do mercado.

  14. Spatial distribution of emissions to air - the SPREAD model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plejdrup, M.S.; Gyldenkaerne, S.

    2011-04-15

    The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, completes the annual national emission inventories for greenhouse gases and air pollutants according to Denmark's obligations under international conventions, e.g. the climate convention, UNFCCC and the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution, CLRTAP. NERI has developed a model to distribute emissions from the national emission inventories on a 1x1 km grid covering the Danish land and sea territory. The new spatial high resolution distribution model for emissions to air (SPREAD) has been developed according to the requirements for reporting of gridded emissions to CLRTAP. Spatial emission data is e.g. used as input for air quality modelling, which again serves as input for assessment and evaluation of health effects. For these purposes distributions with higher spatial resolution have been requested. Previously, a distribution on the 17x17 km EMEP grid has been set up and used in research projects combined with detailed distributions for a few sectors or sub-sectors e.g. a distribution for emissions from road traffic on 1x1 km resolution. SPREAD is developed to generate improved spatial emission data for e.g. air quality modelling in exposure studies. SPREAD includes emission distributions for each sector in the Danish inventory system; stationary combustion, mobile sources, fugitive emissions from fuels, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture and waste. This model enables generation of distributions for single sectors and for a number of sub-sectors and single sources as well. This report documents the methodologies in this first version of SPREAD and presents selected results. Further, a number of potential improvements for later versions of SPREAD are addressed and discussed. (Author)

  15. Use of numerical modeling in design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Chungen; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2004-01-01

    Co-firing biomass with coal or gas in the existing units has gained increasing interest in the recent past to increase the production of environmentally friendly, renewable green power. This paper presents design considerations for co-firing biomass with natural gas in wall-fired burners by use...... and reaction of a particle. To better understand biomass combustion and thus improve the design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners, non-sphericity of biomass particles is considered. To ease comparison, two cases are numerically studied in a 10m long gas/biomass co-fired burner model. (1) The biomass...... the design for co-firing biomass in wall-fired burners are finally suggested....

  16. Modelling power-law spread of infectious diseases

    CERN Document Server

    Meyer, Sebastian

    2013-01-01

    Short-time human travel behaviour can be well described by a power law with respect to distance. We incorporate this information in space-time models for infectious disease surveillance data to better capture the dynamics of disease spread. Two previously established model classes are extended, which both decompose disease risk additively into endemic and epidemic components: a space-time point process model for individual point-referenced data, and a multivariate time series model for aggregated count data. In both frameworks, the power-law spread is embedded into the epidemic component and its decay parameter is estimated simultaneously with all other unknown parameters using (penalised) likelihood inference. The performance of the new approach is investigated by a re-analysis of individual cases of invasive meningococcal disease in Germany (2002-2008), and count data on influenza in 140 administrative districts of Southern Germany (2001-2008). In both applications, the power-law formulations substantially ...

  17. Modeling thermal protection outfits for fire exposures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Guowen

    2002-01-01

    A numerical model has been developed that successfully predicts heat transfer through thermally protective clothing materials and garments exposed to intense heat. The model considers the effect of fire exposure to the thermophysical properties of materials as well as the air layers between the clothing material and skin surface. These experiments involved characterizing the flash fire surrounding the manikin by measuring the temperature of the flame above each thermal sensor in the manikin surface. An estimation method is used to calculate the heat transfer coefficient for each thermal sensor in a 4 second exposure to an average heat flux of 2.00cal/cm2sec. A parameter estimation method was used to estimate heat induced change in fabric thermophysical properties. The skin-clothe air gap distribution of different garments was determined using three-dimensional body scanning technology. Multi-layer skin model and a burn prediction method were used to predict second and third degree burns. The integrated generalized model developed was validated using the "Pyroman" Thermal Protective Clothing Analysis System with Kevlar/PBIRTM and NomexRTMIIIA coverall garments with different configuration and exposure time. A parametric study conducted using this numerical model indicated the influencing parameters on garment thermal protective performance in terms of skin burn damage subjected to 4 second flash fire exposure. The importance of these parameters is analyzed and distinguished. These parameters includes fabric thermophysical properties, PyromanRTM chamber flash fire characteristics, garment shrinkage and fit factors, as well as garment initial and test ambient temperature. Different skin models and their influence on burn prediction were also investigated using this model.

  18. A Spread Willingness Computing-Based Information Dissemination Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haojing Huang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper constructs a kind of spread willingness computing based on information dissemination model for social network. The model takes into account the impact of node degree and dissemination mechanism, combined with the complex network theory and dynamics of infectious diseases, and further establishes the dynamical evolution equations. Equations characterize the evolutionary relationship between different types of nodes with time. The spread willingness computing contains three factors which have impact on user’s spread behavior: strength of the relationship between the nodes, views identity, and frequency of contact. Simulation results show that different degrees of nodes show the same trend in the network, and even if the degree of node is very small, there is likelihood of a large area of information dissemination. The weaker the relationship between nodes, the higher probability of views selection and the higher the frequency of contact with information so that information spreads rapidly and leads to a wide range of dissemination. As the dissemination probability and immune probability change, the speed of information dissemination is also changing accordingly. The studies meet social networking features and can help to master the behavior of users and understand and analyze characteristics of information dissemination in social network.

  19. Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - Model intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gloster, John; Jones, Andrew; Redington, Alison

    2010-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route, with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics....... Atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to assess airborne spread of FMDV in a number of countries, including the UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, USA and Canada. These models were compared at a Workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office in 2008. Each modeller was provided...... of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events on the infected premises is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; (3) differences...

  20. Dynamic spreading of nanofluids on solids part II: modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kuan-Liang; Kondiparty, Kirtiprakash; Nikolov, Alex D; Wasan, Darsh

    2012-11-27

    Recent studies on the spreading phenomena of liquid dispersions of nanoparticles (nanofluids) have revealed that the self-layering and two-dimensional structuring of nanoparticles in the three-phase contact region exert structural disjoining pressure, which drives the spreading of nanofluids by forming a continuous wedge film between the liquid (e.g., oil) and solid surface. Motivated by the practical applications of the phenomenon and experimental results reported in Part I of this two-part series, we thoroughly investigated the spreading dynamics of nanofluids against an oil drop on a solid surface. With the Laplace equation as a starting point, the spreading process is modeled by Navier-Stokes equations through the lubrication approach, which considers the structural disjoining pressure, gravity, and van der Waals force. The temporal interface profile and advancing inner contact line velocity of nanofluidic films are analyzed through varying the effective nanoparticle concentration, the outer contact angle, the effective nanoparticle size, and capillary pressure. It is found that a fast and spontaneous advance of the inner contact line movement can be obtained by increasing the nanoparticle concentration, decreasing the nanoparticle size, and/or decreasing the interfacial tension. Once the nanofluidic film is formed, the advancing inner contact line movement reaches a constant velocity, which is independent of the outer contact angle if the interfacial tension is held constant.

  1. Forest fire risk assessment in Sweden using climate model data: bias correction and future changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As the risk for a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40 and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5 for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3. The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

  2. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  3. The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Lessler

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed introductions of disease is small (<1 per day but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.

  4. Mathematical model for the spread of extreme ideology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldila, D.; Nuraini, N.; Soewono, E.

    2015-03-01

    Mathematical model to understand the spread of extreme ideology in a closed population will be discussed in this paper. Human population divided into five sub-population, i.e virgin sub-population, semi fanatic sub-population, fanatic sub-population, aware sub-population and recovered sub-population. Intervention to rehabilitate first three sub-population (virgin, semi fanatic and fanatic) included in this model as an effort by the government to control the spread of the ideology. Equilibrium points and their threshold conditions are shown analytically. Some numerical simulation are given to support the analytic results. It is shown that isolate fanatic people and educate them is a better solution rather than to give an education about the danger of the extreme ideology to source population.

  5. Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillon, David; Simon, Carl P; Morenoff, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters--patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars--we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy.

  6. An Equilibrium Model of Catastrophe Insurance Futures and Spreads

    OpenAIRE

    Knut Aase

    1999-01-01

    This article presents a valuation model of futures contracts and derivatives on such contracts, when the underlying delivery value is an insurance index, which follows a stochastic process containing jumps of random claim sizes at random time points of accident occurrence. Applications are made on insurance futures and spreads, a relatively new class of instruments for risk management launched by the Chicago Board of Trade in 1993, anticipated to start in Europe and perhaps also in other part...

  7. Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modeling with WRF 3.3 and SFIRE 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Mandel

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available We describe the physical model, numerical algorithms, and software structure of a model consisting of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model, coupled with the fire-spread model (SFIRE module. In every time step, the fire model inputs the surface wind, which drives the fire, and outputs the heat flux from the fire into the atmosphere, which in turn influences the atmosphere. SFIRE is implemented by the level set method, which allows a submesh representation of the burning region and a flexible implementation of various kinds of ignition. The coupled model is capable of running on a cluster faster than real time even with fine resolution in dekameters. It is available as a part of the Open Wildland Fire Modeling (OpenWFM environment at http://openwfm.org, which contains also utilities for visualization, diagnostics, and data processing, including an extended version of the WRF Preprocessing System (WPS. The SFIRE code with a subset of the features is distributed with WRF 3.3 as WRF-Fire.

  8. Modeling human-caused forest fire ignition for assessing forest fire danger in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arndt N

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Forest fires have not been considered as a significant threat for mountain forests of the European Alpine Space so far. Climate change and its effects on nature, ecology, forest stand structure and composition, global changes according to demands of society and general trends in the provision of ecosystem services are potentially going to have a significant effect on fire ignition in the future. This makes the prediction of forest fire ignition essential for forest managers in order to establish an effective fire prevention system and to allocate fire fighting resources effectively, especially in alpine landscapes. This paper presents a modelling approach for predicting human-caused forest fire ignition by a range of socio-economic factors associated with an increasing forest fire danger in Austria. The relationship between touristic activities, infrastructure, agriculture and forestry and the spatial occurrence of forest fires have been studied over a 17-year period between 1993 and 2009 by means of logistic regression. 59 independent socio-economic variables have been analysed with different models and validated with heterogeneous subsets of forest fire records. The variables included in the final model indicate that railroad, forest road and hiking trail density together with agricultural and forestry developments may contribute significantly to fire danger. The final model explains 60.5% of the causes of the fire events in the validation set and allows a solid prediction. Maps showing the fire danger classification allow identifying the most vulnerable forest areas in Austria and are used to predict the fire danger classes on municipality level.

  9. Exploring Early Angiosperm Fire Feedbacks using Coupled Experiments and Modelling Approaches to Estimate Cretaceous Palaeofire Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belcher, Claire; Hudpsith, Victoria

    2016-04-01

    Using the fossil record we are typically limited to exploring linkages between palaeoecological changes and palaeofire activity by assessing the abundance of charcoals preserved in sediments. However, it is the behaviour of fires that primarily governs their ecological effects. Therefore, the ability to estimate variations in aspects of palaeofire behaviour such as palaeofire intensity and rate of spread would be of key benefit toward understanding the coupled evolutionary history of ecosystems and fire. The Cretaceous Period saw major diversification in land plants. Previously, conifers (gymnosperms) and ferns (pteridophytes) dominated Earth's ecosystems until flowering plants (angiosperms) appear in the fossil record of the Early Cretaceous (~135Ma). We have created surface fire behaviour estimates for a variety of angiosperm invasion scenarios and explored the influence of Cretaceous superambient atmospheric oxygen levels on the fire behaviour occurring in these new Cretaceous ecosystems. These estimates are then used to explore the hypothesis that the early spread of the angiosperms was promoted by the novel fire regimes that they created. In order to achieve this we tested the flammability of Mesozoic analogue fuel types in controlled laboratory experiments using an iCone calorimeter, which measured the ignitability as well as the effective heat of combustion of the fuels. We then used the BehavePlus fire behaviour modelling system to scale up our laboratory results to the ecosystem scale. Our results suggest that fire-angiosperm feedbacks may have occurred in two phases: The first phase being a result of weedy angiosperms providing an additional easily ignitable fuel that enhanced both the seasonality and frequency of surface fires. In the second phase, the addition of shrubby understory fuels likely expanded the number of ecosystems experiencing more intense surface fires, resulting in enhanced mortality and suppressed post-fire recruitment of gymnosperms

  10. 76 FR 46330 - NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG); Second Draft...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-02

    ... COMMISSION NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG); Second Draft... for public comment a document entitled, NUREG-1934 (EPRI 1023259), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling... pdr.resource@nrc.gov . NUREG-1934 (EPRI 1023259), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling...

  11. Damage spreading in a driven lattice gas model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio Puzzo, M. Leticia; Saracco, Gustavo P.; Albano, Ezequiel V.

    2013-06-01

    We studied damage spreading in a Driven Lattice Gas (DLG) model as a function of the temperature T, the magnitude of the external driving field E, and the lattice size. The DLG model undergoes an order-disorder second-order phase transition at the critical temperature Tc(E), such that the ordered phase is characterized by high-density strips running along the direction of the applied field; while in the disordered phase one has a lattice-gas-like behavior. It is found that the damage always spreads for all the investigated temperatures and reaches a saturation value D that depends only on T. D increases for TTc(E=∞) and is free of finite-size effects. This behavior can be explained as due to the existence of interfaces between the high-density strips and the lattice-gas-like phase whose roughness depends on T. Also, we investigated damage spreading for a range of finite fields as a function of T, finding a behavior similar to that of the case with E=∞.

  12. Modeling disease spread in populations with birth, death, and concurrency

    CERN Document Server

    Millera, Joel C

    2016-01-01

    The existence of sexual partnerships that overlap in time (concurrent relationships) is believed by some to be a significant contributing factor to the spread of HIV, although this is controversial. We derive an analytic model which allows us to investigate and compare disease spread in populations with and without concurrency. We can identify regions of parameter space in which its impact is negligible, and other regions in which it plays a major role. We also see that the impact of concurrency on the initial growth phase can be much larger than its impact on the equilibrium size. We see that the effect of concurrency saturates, which leads to the perhaps surprising conclusion that interventions targeting concurrency may be most effective in populations with low to moderate levels of concurrency.

  13. Simulating Fire Disturbance and Plant Mortality Using Antecedent Eco-hydrological Conditions to Inform a Physically Based Combustion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atchley, A. L.; Linn, R.; Middleton, R. S.; Runde, I.; Coon, E.; Michaletz, S. T.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfire is a complex agent of change that both affects and depends on eco-hydrological systems, thereby constituting a tightly linked system of disturbances and eco-hydrological conditions. For example, structure, build-up, and moisture content of fuel are dependent on eco-hydrological regimes, which impacts fire spread and intensity. Fire behavior, on the other hand, determines the severity and extent of eco-hydrological disturbance, often resulting in a mosaic of untouched, stressed, damaged, or completely destroyed vegetation within the fire perimeter. This in turn drives new eco-hydrological system behavior. The cycles of disturbance and recovery present a complex evolving system with many unknowns especially in the face of climate change that has implications for fire risk, water supply, and forest composition. Physically-based numerical experiments that attempt to capture the complex linkages between eco-hydrological regimes that affect fire behavior and the echo-hydrological response from those fire disturbances help build the understanding required to project how fire disturbance and eco-hydrological conditions coevolve over time. Here we explore the use of FIRETEC—a physically-based 3D combustion model that solves conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species—to resolve fire spread over complex terrain and fuel structures. Uniquely, we couple a physically-based plant mortality model with FIRETEC and examine the resultant hydrologic impact. In this proof of concept demonstration we spatially distribute fuel structure and moisture content based on the eco-hydrological condition to use as input for FIRETEC. The fire behavior simulation then produces localized burn severity and heat injures which are used as input to a spatially-informed plant mortality model. Ultimately we demonstrate the applicability of physically-based models to explore integrated disturbance and eco-hydrologic response to wildfire behavior and specifically map how fire

  14. Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling

    2008-01-01

    The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...

  15. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Marie Kehrwald

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate. The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1 and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

  16. Modelling fire frequency in a Cerrado savanna protected area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira Júnior, Alfredo C; Oliveira, Sofia L J; Pereira, José M C; Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral

    2014-01-01

    Covering almost a quarter of Brazil, the Cerrado is the world's most biologically rich tropical savanna. Fire is an integral part of the Cerrado but current land use and agricultural practices have been changing fire regimes, with undesirable consequences for the preservation of biodiversity. In this study, fire frequency and fire return intervals were modelled over a 12-year time series (1997-2008) for the Jalapão State Park, a protected area in the north of the Cerrado, based on burned area maps derived from Landsat imagery. Burned areas were classified using object based image analysis. Fire data were modelled with the discrete lognormal model and the estimated parameters were used to calculate fire interval, fire survival and hazard of burning distributions, for seven major land cover types. Over the study period, an area equivalent to four times the size of Jalapão State Park burned and the mean annual area burned was 34%. Median fire intervals were generally short, ranging from three to six years. Shrub savannas had the shortest fire intervals, and dense woodlands the longest. Because fires in the Cerrado are strongly responsive to fuel age in the first three to four years following a fire, early dry season patch mosaic burning may be used to reduce the extent of area burned and the severity of fire effects.

  17. Calculation of precise firing statistics in a neural network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Myoung Won

    2017-08-01

    A precise prediction of neural firing dynamics is requisite to understand the function of and the learning process in a biological neural network which works depending on exact spike timings. Basically, the prediction of firing statistics is a delicate manybody problem because the firing probability of a neuron at a time is determined by the summation over all effects from past firing states. A neural network model with the Feynman path integral formulation is recently introduced. In this paper, we present several methods to calculate firing statistics in the model. We apply the methods to some cases and compare the theoretical predictions with simulation results.

  18. Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - model intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gloster, J; Jones, A; Redington, A; Burgin, L; Sorensen, J H; Turner, R; Dillon, M; Hullinger, P; Simpson, M; Astrup, P; Garner, G; Stewart, P; D' Amours, R; Sellers, R; Paton, D

    2008-09-04

    Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly infectious vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed animals caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus. It spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route - with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Over the years a number of workers have developed or adapted atmospheric dispersion models to assess the risk of foot-and-mouth disease virus spread through the air. Six of these models were compared at a workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office during 2008. A number of key issues emerged from the workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all of the models predicted similar directions for 'at risk' livestock with much of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; and (3) differences in assumptions made about virus release, environmental fate, and subsequent infection can substantially modify the size and location of the downwind risk area. Close relationships have now been established between participants, which in the event of an outbreak of disease could be readily activated to supply advice or modelling support.

  19. Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on Large Fire Size, Counts, and Intensities Using the Large Fire Simulator (FSim)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, K. L.; Haas, J. R.; Finney, M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in climate can be expected to cause changes in wildfire activity due to a combination of shifts in weather (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) and vegetation. Changes in vegetation could include type conversions, altered forest structure, and shifts in species composition, the effects of which could be mitigated or exacerbated by management activities. Further, changes in suppression response and effectiveness may alter potential wildfire activity, as well as the consequences of wildfire. Feedbacks among these factors are extremely complex and uncertain. The ability to anticipate changes driven by fire weather (largely outside of human control) can lead to development of fire and fuel management strategies aimed at mitigating current and future risk. Therefore, in this study we focus on isolating the effects of climate-induced changes in weather on wildfire activity. Specifically, we investigated the effect of changes in weather on fire activity in the Canadian Rockies ecoregion, which encompasses Glacier National Park and several large wilderness areas to the south. To model the ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires, we used the Large Fire Simulator (FSim), which we coupled with current and projected future climatic conditions. Weather streams were based on data from 14 downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 45 and 85 for the years 2040-2060. While all GCMs indicate increases in temperature for this area, which would be expected to exacerbate fire activity, precipitation predictions for the summer wildfire season are more variable, ranging from a decrease of approximately 50 mm to an increase of approximately 50 mm. Windspeeds are generally predicted to decrease, which would reduce rates of spread and fire intensity. The net effect of these weather changes on the size, number, and intensity

  20. Fuel consumption and fire emissions estimates using Fire Radiative Power, burned area and statistical modelling on the fire event scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruecker, Gernot; Leimbach, David; Guenther, Felix; Barradas, Carol; Hoffmann, Anja

    2016-04-01

    Fire Radiative Power (FRP) retrieved by infrared sensors, such as flown on several polar orbiting and geostationary satellites, has been shown to be proportional to fuel consumption rates in vegetation fires, and hence the total radiative energy released by a fire (Fire Radiative Energy, FRE) is proportional to the total amount of biomass burned. However, due to the sparse temporal coverage of polar orbiting and the coarse spatial resolution of geostationary sensors, it is difficult to estimate fuel consumption for single fire events. Here we explore an approach for estimating FRE through temporal integration of MODIS FRP retrievals over MODIS-derived burned areas. Temporal integration is aided by statistical modelling to estimate missing observations using a generalized additive model (GAM) and taking advantage of additional information such as land cover and a global dataset of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), as well as diurnal and annual FRP fluctuation patterns. Based on results from study areas located in savannah regions of Southern and Eastern Africa and Brazil, we compare this method to estimates based on simple temporal integration of FRP retrievals over the fire lifetime, and estimate the potential variability of FRP integration results across a range of fire sizes. We compare FRE-based fuel consumption against a database of field experiments in similar landscapes. Results show that for larger fires, this method yields realistic estimates and is more robust when only a small number of observations is available than the simple temporal integration. Finally, we offer an outlook on the integration of data from other satellites, specifically FireBird, S-NPP VIIRS and Sentinel-3, as well as on using higher resolution burned area data sets derived from Landsat and similar sensors.

  1. Numerical and physical modelling of oil spreading in broken ice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gjoesteen, Janne K. Oekland

    2002-07-01

    The present work focuses on oil spreading in broken ice and the content of this thesis falls into three categories: 1) The physical and numerical modelling of oil spreading in ice. 2) Ice models and parameters describing the ice cover. 3) Experiments on oil spreading in broken ice. A background study was carried out to investigate existing models for simulating oil in broken ice. Most of them describe motion of oil simply as a function of the ice motion and do not take advantage of the possibilities that recent ice models provide. We decided to choose another direction, starting from scratch with equations describing the flow of oil on top of a water surface. The equations were implemented numerically, including proper boundary conditions to account for the presence of physical restrictions in the form of ice floes in the simulation area. The implementation was designed to be able to apply data on ice motion calculated by an existing dynamic ice model. A first validation of the model was carried out using existing experimental data. As those data were obtained in a different setting, the recorded parameters and set-up of the experiment were not ideal for our purpose. However, we were able to conclude that our model behaviour was reasonable. We have carried out statistical analysis on meteorological data of wind speeds, temperatures, flow sizes and ice thickness to obtain probability distributions describing the parameters. Those data has been collected in the Pechora Sea. Wind and temperature had been recorded for a period of 30-40 years. For this region we also had available Argos satellite data from four buoys drifting in the ice in April-June 1998. The Argos data were carefully analysed to suggest probability distributions and return periods for certain speeds. (Indoor basin tests were carried out to obtain data on spreading of oil in broken ice. A set of 20 tests was conducted, each with different type of oil, ice concentration, slush concentration or ice

  2. A mathematical model of the spread of the AIDS virus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyman, J.M.; Stanley, E.A.

    1987-01-01

    A mathematical computer model of the spread of the AIDS epidemic in the US is being developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This model predicts the spreading of the HIV infection, and subsequent development of clinical AIDS in various population groups. These groups are chosen according to age, frequency and type of sexual contact, population density, and region of the country. Type of sexual contact includes not only the heterosexual, homosexual differentiation but also repeated contacts with such primary partners as spouses. In conjunction with the computer model, we are developing a database containing relevant information on the natural history of the viral infection, the prevalence of the infection and of clinical AIDS in the population, the distribution of people into sexual behavior groups as a function of age and information on interregional contacts. The effects of variable infectiousness and sexual activity during the long period from infection to disease are found to have a major impact on the predictions of the model. 24 refs., 5 figs.

  3. Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.

    2017-09-01

    Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.

  4. Current status and future needs of the BehavePlus Fire Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2014-01-01

    The BehavePlus Fire Modeling System is among the most widely used systems for wildland fire prediction. It is designed for use in a range of tasks including wildfire behaviour prediction, prescribed fire planning, fire investigation, fuel hazard assessment, fire model understanding, communication and research. BehavePlus is based on mathematical models for fire...

  5. Simulation of a compartment fire using a zone model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Lizhong; GUO Zaifu; JI Jingwei; FAN Weicheng

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the zone modeling analysis of a single compartment flashover fire. Two criteria are applied in the model to judge the onset of ignition for different combustibles. By calculating the total received energy through radiation or the surface temperature of the combustible, the fire growth can be quantitatively determined. The improved zone fire model shows the influence of different combustibles upon the fire growth. This model is better than the traditional zone model because the common criteria of flashover, i.e. an upper layer temperature of 600℃ and the heat radiation intensity received by the floor of 20 kW/m2, have not been applied in it.

  6. Wildfire Risk Main Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The model combines three modeled fire behavior parameters (rate of spread, flame length, crown fire potential) and one modeled ecological health measure (fire regime...

  7. A small world model for the spread of HIV infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israel T. Vieira

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available It has long been recognised that the structure of social networks plays an important role in the dynamics of disease propagation. The spread of HIV usually results from a complex network of social interactions and other factors related to culture, sexual behaviour, demography, geography and disease characteristics, as well as the availability, accessibility and delivery of healthcare. The small world phenomenon has been used for representing social network interactions. It states that, given some random connections, the degrees of separation between any two individuals within a population can be very small. In this paper we present a discrete event simulation model which uses a variant of the small world network model to represent social interactions and the sexual transmission of HIV within a population. We use the model to demonstrate the importance of the choice of topology and initial distribution of infection, and capture the direct and non-linear relationship between the probability of a casual partnership (small world randomness parameter and the spread of HIV.

  8. Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

    2011-01-01

    Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

  9. DIFFUSION MODEL OF CREAMY- AND VEGETABLE SPREADS MIXING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Ostrikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary .A mathematical model of the process of mixing cream- and vegetable spread was developed. In modeling the diffusion understanding of the nature of the process were used, allowing escape from the apparatus geometry. After turning on the mixer the mixing process begins. Its duration can be determined by the behavior of the tracer particles introduced into the agitated medium in a predetermined quantity through the free liquid surface within a short period of time. If tracer particles have the same density with the surrounding bulk liquid phase, then the path of movement of the particles and the fluid are identical. The degree of homogeneity of the composition can be stirred calculated by the coefficient of variation, which is identified by the local concentrations of tracer particles in the volume of stirred medium. The task of a one-dimensional particle transport in the plane layer of the mixed liquid is solved for their calculation. The calculated ratios obtained allow us to calculate the particle concentration at any point in the volume being mixed at random times. Based on the experiment effective mixing coefficients are identified and relations for their assessment, depending on the Reynolds number of the mixer in the range studied variations of process are offered. Using the time dependence of the variation coefficient characterizing the homogenity of the system being mixed, it is possible to determine the duration of mixing to obtain the product with the desired uniformity and homogeneity of the product under the definition of a predetermined duration of the mixing process. The variation coefficient %, indicating a sufficiently good uniformity of the spread composition was found for the spread №1, being mixed with a stirrer rotating at a speed of n=150 rev / min, and the dimensionless length of the process Fo =0,0935 for obtaining estimated relations. Using the proposed calculation algorithm one can estimate the homogeneity of the

  10. Spatial distribution of emissions to air – the SPREAD model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plejdrup, Marlene Schmidt; Gyldenkærne, Steen

    The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, completes the annual national emission inventories for greenhouse gases and air pollutants according to Denmark’s obligations under international conventions, e.g. the climate convention, UNFCCC and the convention on long......-range transboundary air pollution, CLRTAP. NERI has developed a model to distribute emissions from the national emission inventories on a 1x1 km grid covering the Danish land and sea territory. The new spatial high resolution distribution model for emissions to air (SPREAD) has been developed according...... to the requirements for reporting of gridded emissions to CLRTAP. Spatial emission data is e.g. used as input for air quality modelling, which again serves as input for assessment and evaluation of health effects. For these purposes distributions with higher spatial resolution have been requested. Previously...

  11. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaWen T. Hollingsworth; Laurie L. Kurth; Bernard R. Parresol; Roger D. Ottmar; Susan J. Prichard

    2012-01-01

    Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation...

  12. Statistical modelling of forest fire danger rating based on meteorological, topographical and fuel factors in the Republic of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, M.; Yoon, S.; Jang, K.; Lim, J.

    2016-12-01

    Most of fires were human-caused fires in Korea, but meteorological factors are also big contributors to fire behavior and its spread. Thus, meteorological factors as well as social factors were considered in the fire danger rating systems. This study aims to develop an advanced Korean Forest Fire Danger Rating System (KFFDRS) using weather data of automatic mountain meteorology observation systems(AMOSs) to support forest fire prevention strategy in South Korea. The KFFDRS consists of three, 10-scale indices: daily weather index (DWI), fuel model index (FMI), and topography model index (TMI). DWI represents the meteorological characteristics, such as humidity (relative and effective), temperature and wind speed, and we integrated nine logistic regression models of the past into one national model. One integrated national model is [1+exp{2.706+(0.088×maximum temperature)-(0.055×relative humidity)-(0.023×effective humidity)-(0.104×mean wind speed)}-1]-1 and all weather variables significantly (pfusion of mountain weather data with 55 random sampling in forest fire event days. One integrated national model showed 10% high accuracy than nine logistic regression models when it is applied fused mountain weather data. These findings would be necessary for the policy makers in the Republic of Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

  13. Large, high-intensity fire events in Southern California shrublands: Debunking the fine-grain age patch model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, J.E.; Zedler, P.H.

    2009-01-01

    fuels. Results from the Behave Plus fire model with a custom fuel module for young chaparral shows that there is sufficient dead fuel to spread fire even under relatively little winds. Empirical studies of fuel ages burned in recent fires illustrate that young fuels often comprise a major portion of burned vegetation, and there is no difference between evergreen chaparral and semi-deciduous sage scrub. It has also been argued that the present-day fire size distribution in northern Baja California is a model of the historical patterns that were present on southern California landscapes. Applying this model with historical fire frequencies shows that the Baja model is inadequate to maintain these fire-prone ecosystems and further demonstrates that fire managers in southern California are not likely to learn much from studying modern Baja California fire regimes. Further supporting this conclusion are theoretical cellular automata models of fire spread, which show that, even in systems with age dependent flammability, landscapes evolve toward a complex age mosaic with a plausible age structure only when there is a severe stopping rule that constrains fire size, and only if ignitions are saturating. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

  14. A Markov model for measuring artillery fire support effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Guzik, Dennis M.

    1988-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis presents a Markov model, which, given an indirect fire weapon system's parameters, yields measures of the weapon's effectiveness in providing fire support to a maneuver element. These parameters may be determined for a variety of different scenarios. Any indirect fire weapon system may be a candidate for evaluation. This model may be used in comparing alternative weapon systems for the role of direct support of a Marin...

  15. Developing a probabilistic fire risk model and its application to fire danger systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penman, T.; Bradstock, R.; Caccamo, G.; Price, O.

    2012-04-01

    Wildfires can result in significant economic losses where they encounter human assets. Management agencies have large budgets devoted to both prevention and suppression of fires, but little is known about the extent to which they alter the probability of asset loss. Prediction of the risk of asset loss as a result of wildfire requires an understanding of a number of complex processes from ignition, fire growth and impact on assets. These processes need to account for the additive or multiplicative effects of management, weather and the natural environment. Traditional analytical methods can only examine only a small subset of these. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) provide a methodology to examine complex environmental problems. Outcomes of a BBN are represented as likelihoods, which can then form the basis for risk analysis and management. Here we combine a range of data sources, including simulation models, empirical statistical analyses and expert opinion to form a fire management BBN. Various management actions have been incorporated into the model including landscape and interface prescribed burning, initial attack and fire suppression. Performance of the model has been tested against fire history datasets with strong correlations being found. Adapting the BBN presented here we are capable of developing a spatial and temporal fire danger rating system. Currently Australian fire danger rating systems are based on the weather. Our model accounts for existing fires, as well as the risk of new ignitions combined with probabilistic weather forecasts to identify those areas which are most at risk of asset loss. Fire growth is modelled with consideration given to management prevention efforts, as well as suppression resources that are available in each geographic locality. At a 10km resolution the model will provide a probability of asset loss which represents a significant step forward in the level of information that can be provided to the general public.

  16. Modeling flame structure in wildland fires using the one-dimensional turbulence model

    Science.gov (United States)

    David O. Lignell; Elizabeth I. Monson; Mark A. Finney

    2010-01-01

    The mechanism of flame propagation in wildland fire fuel beds is of critical importance for understanding and quantifying fire spread rates. Recent observations and experiments have indicated the dominance of flame propagation by direct contact between flames and unburnt fuel, as opposed to propagation via radiative heating alone. It is postulated that effects of...

  17. Catching fire and spreading it: A glimpse into displayed entrepreneurial passion in crowdfunding campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Junchao Jason; Chen, Xiao-Ping; Kotha, Suresh; Fisher, Greg

    2017-07-01

    Crowdfunding is an emerging phenomenon that enables entrepreneurs to solicit financial contributions for new projects from mass audiences. Drawing on the elaboration likelihood model of persuasion and emotional contagion theory, the authors examined the importance of displayed entrepreneurial passion when seeking resources in a crowdfunding context. They proposed that entrepreneurs' displayed passion in the introductory video for a crowdfunding project increases viewers' experienced enthusiasm about the project (i.e., passion contagion), which then prompts them to contribute financially and to share campaign information via social-media channels. Such sharing further facilitates campaign success. In addition, the authors proposed that perceived project innovativeness strengthens the positive effect of displayed passion on social-media exposure and the funding amount a project garners. They first tested their hypotheses in 2 studies using a combination of survey and archival data from the world's 2 most popular crowdfunding platforms: Indiegogo (Study 1) and Kickstarter (Study 2). They then conducted an experiment (Study 3) to validate the proposed passion contagion process, and the effect of displayed entrepreneurial passion at the individual level. Findings from these 3 studies significantly supported their hypotheses. The authors discuss the theoretical and practical implications of their findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Analogue Models Of Volcanic Spreading At Mt. Vesuvius

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Matteo, Ada; Castaldo, Raffaele; D'Auria, Luca; James, Michael; Lane, Steve; Massa, Bruno; Pepe, Susi; Tizzani, Pietro

    2015-04-01

    Somma-Vesuvius is a quiescent strato-volcano of the Neapolitan district, southern Italy, for which various geophysical and geological evidences (e.g. geodetic measurements, geological and structural data, seismic profiles interpretations and surface deformation analysis with Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR)) indicate ongoing spreading deformation. In this research we investigate the spreading deformation and associated surface deformation pattern by performing analogue experiments and comparing the results with actual ground deformation as measured using DInSAR data recorded between 1992 and 2010. Somma-Vesuvius consists of a volcanic cone (Gran Cono) lying within an asymmetric caldera (Somma). The Somma caldera is the result of at least 7 Plinian eruptions, the last of which was the 79 CE. Pompeii eruption. The current cone of Mt. Vesuvius grew within the caldera in the following centuries as the effect of continued explosive and effusive activity of the volcano. The volcano lies on a substratum consisting of a Mesozoic carbonatic basement, overlapped by Holocene clastic sediments and volcanic rocks. Our analogue models were built to simulate the shape of the Somma-Vesuvius top a scale of about 1:100000, emplaced on a sand layer (brittle behaviour) laid on a silicone layer (ductile behaviour). Models are based on the Fluid-dynamics Dimensionless Analysis (FDA), according to the Buckingham-Π theorem. In this context, we considered few dimensionless parameters that allowed the setting of a reliable scaled model. To represent the complex Somma-Vesuvius geometry, an asymmetric model was built by setting a truncated cone (mimicking the topography of Somma edifice) topped by another small cone (mimicking the Gran Cono) shifted off the axis of the main cone. Different experiments were carried out in which the thickness of the basal sand layer and of the silicone one were varied. To quantify the vertical and horizontal displacements the

  19. Modeling post-fire hydro-geomorphic recovery in the Waldo Canyon Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Alicia; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, Samira; Chin, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Wildfire can have significant impacts on watershed hydrology and geomorphology by changing soil properties and removing vegetation, often increasing runoff and soil erosion and deposition, debris flows, and flooding. Watershed systems may take several years or longer to recover. During this time, post-fire channel changes have the potential to alter hydraulics that influence characteristics such as time of concentration and increase time to peak flow, flow capacity, and velocity. Using the case of the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado (USA), this research will leverage field-based surveys and terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to parameterize KINEROS2 (KINematic runoff and EROSion), an event oriented, physically-based watershed runoff and erosion model. We will use the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool, which is a GIS-based hydrologic modeling tool that uses commonly available GIS data layers to parameterize, execute, and spatially visualize runoff and sediment yield for watersheds impacted by the Waldo Canyon Fire. Specifically, two models are developed, an unburned (Bear Creek) and burned (Williams) watershed. The models will simulate burn severity and treatment conditions. Field data will be used to validate the burned watersheds for pre- and post-fire changes in infiltration, runoff, peak flow, sediment yield, and sediment discharge. Spatial modeling will provide insight into post-fire patterns for varying treatment, burn severity, and climate scenarios. Results will also provide post-fire managers with improved hydro-geomorphic modeling and prediction tools for water resources management and mitigation efforts.

  20. Anticipating the severity of the fire season in Northern Portugal using statistical models based on meteorological indices of fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Sílvia A.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Turkman, Kamil F.; Ermida, Sofia L.; Calado, Teresa J.

    2017-04-01

    Like in other regions of Mediterranean Europe, climate and weather are major drivers of fire activity in Portugal. The aim of the present study is to assess the role played by meteorological factors on inter-annual variability of burned area over a region of Portugal characterized by large fire activity. Monthly cumulated values of burned area in August are obtained from the fire database of ICNF, the Portuguese authority for forests. The role of meteorological factors is characterized by means of Daily Severity Rating, DSR, an index of meteorological fire danger, which is derived from meteorological fields as obtained from ECMWF Interim Reanalysis. The study area is characterized by the predominance of forest, with high percentages of maritime pine and eucalyptus, two species with high flammability in summer. The time series of recorded burned area in August during 1980-2011 is highly correlated (correlation coefficient of 0.93) with the one for whole Portugal. First, a normal distribution model is fitted to the 32-year sample of decimal logarithms of monthly burned area. The model is improved by introducing two covariates:(1) the top-down meteorological factor (DSRtd) which consists of daily cumulated values of DSR since April 1 to July 31 and may be viewed as the cumulated stress on vegetation due to meteorological conditions during the pre-fire season; (2) the bottom-up factor (DSRbu) which consists of the square root of the mean of the squared daily deviations (restricted to days with positive departures of DSR from the corresponding long term mean) and may be viewed as the contribution of days characterized by extreme weather conditions favoring the onset and spreading of wildfires. Three different statistical models are then developed: the "climate anomaly" model, using DSRtd as covariate, the "weather anomaly", using DSRbu as covariate, and the "combined" model using both variables as covariates. These models are used to define background fire danger, fire

  1. Can fire atlas data improve species distribution model projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, Shawn M; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Mynsberge, Alison R; Safford, Hugh D

    2014-07-01

    Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in studies of climate change impacts, yet are often criticized for failing to incorporate disturbance processes that can influence species distributions. Here we use two temporally independent data sets of vascular plant distributions, climate data, and fire atlas data to examine the influence of disturbance history on SDM projection accuracy through time in the mountain ranges of California, USA. We used hierarchical partitioning to examine the influence of fire occurrence on the distribution of 144 vascular plant species and built a suite of SDMs to examine how the inclusion of fire-related predictors (fire occurrence and departure from historical fire return intervals) affects SDM projection accuracy. Fire occurrence provided the least explanatory power among predictor variables for predicting species' distributions, but provided improved explanatory power for species whose regeneration is tied closely to fire. A measure of the departure from historic fire return interval had greater explanatory power for calibrating modern SDMs than fire occurrence. This variable did not improve internal model accuracy for most species, although it did provide marginal improvement to models for species adapted to high-frequency fire regimes. Fire occurrence and fire return interval departure were strongly related to the climatic covariates used in SDM development, suggesting that improvements in model accuracy may not be expected due to limited additional explanatory power. Our results suggest that the inclusion of coarse-scale measures of disturbance in SDMs may not be necessary to predict species distributions under climate change, particularly for disturbance processes that are largely mediated by climate.

  2. Modeling the spatial distribution of forest crown biomass and effects on fire behavior with FUEL3D and WFDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; William Mell; Peter McCauley

    2010-01-01

    Crown fire poses challenges to fire managers and can endanger fire fighters. Understanding of how fire interacts with tree crowns is essential to informed decisions about crown fire. Current operational crown fire predictions in the United States assume homogeneous crown fuels. While a new class of research fire models, which model fire behavior with computational...

  3. The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: experimental and analytical protocols with detailed model descriptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, Sam S.; Melton, Joe R.; Lasslop, Gitta; Bachelet, Dominique; Forrest, Matthew; Hantson, Stijn; Kaplan, Jed O.; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stéphane; Ward, Daniel S.; Yue, Chao; Arora, Vivek K.; Hickler, Thomas; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Nieradzik, Lars; Spessa, Allan; Folberth, Gerd A.; Sheehan, Tim; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Sitch, Stephen; Harrison, Sandy; Arneth, Almut

    2017-03-01

    The important role of fire in regulating vegetation community composition and contributions to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols make it a critical component of dynamic global vegetation models and Earth system models. Over 2 decades of development, a wide variety of model structures and mechanisms have been designed and incorporated into global fire models, which have been linked to different vegetation models. However, there has not yet been a systematic examination of how these different strategies contribute to model performance. Here we describe the structure of the first phase of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), which for the first time seeks to systematically compare a number of models. By combining a standardized set of input data and model experiments with a rigorous comparison of model outputs to each other and to observations, we will improve the understanding of what drives vegetation fire, how it can best be simulated, and what new or improved observational data could allow better constraints on model behavior. In this paper, we introduce the fire models used in the first phase of FireMIP, the simulation protocols applied, and the benchmarking system used to evaluate the models. We have also created supplementary tables that describe, in thorough mathematical detail, the structure of each model.

  4. Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Srijn; Kloster, Silvia; Coughlan, Michael; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Vanniere, Boris; Bruecher, Tim; Kehrwald, Natalie; Magi, Brian I.

    2016-01-01

    Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems.Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages.A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from

  5. Global biogeochemical modeling of contemporary fire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Depaz, J. M.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Morton, D. C.; Kasibhatla, P.; Defries, R. S.; Jin, Y.; Mu, M.; Collatz, G. J.

    2008-12-01

    Improved estimates of contemporary fire emissions are needed to better understand the effects of a changing fire regime on climate and air quality. At a global scale, uncertainties in fire emissions arise from several sources, including estimates of burned area, aboveground biomass, combustion completeness, and emission factors. The development of long-term time series requires addressing additional sources of uncertainty related to the integration of different satellite fire products, the representation of organic soils and peatlands, and the use of fire in the deforestation process. Here we describe improvements to a global fire emissions time series (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3) that reduce uncertainties associated with many of the factors described above. We then characterized long-term trends in fire emissions for different continental-scale regions during 1996-2007. Using South America as an example, we show how climate and human activity contribute to interannual variability in emissions and how the spatial pattern of emissions has changed over time. In a final step we use atmospheric observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to refine and validate our bottom-up emissions estimates for South America.

  6. Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František

    2017-09-01

    The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.

  7. Numerical modelling and experimental assessment of concrete spalling in fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shamalta, M.; Breunese, A.; Peelen, W.; Fellinger, J.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the phenomenon of spalling of concrete in fire has been studied using a numerical model. Spalling is the violent or non-violent breaking off of layers or pieces of concrete when it is exposed to high temperatures as experienced in fires. The types and mechanisms of spalling have been

  8. Numerical modelling and experimental assessment of concrete spalling in fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shamalta, M.; Breunese, A.J.; Peelen, W.H.A.; Fellinger, J.H.H.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the phenomenon of spalling of concrete in fire has been studied using a numerical model. Spalling is the violent or non-violent breaking off of layers or pieces of concrete when it is exposed to high temperatures as experienced in fires. The types and mechanisms of spalling have been

  9. A Review of Fire Interactions and Mass Fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A. Finney

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The character of a wildland fire can change dramatically in the presence of another nearby fire. Understanding and predicting the changes in behavior due to fire-fire interactions cannot only be life-saving to those on the ground, but also be used to better control a prescribed fire to meet objectives. In discontinuous fuel types, such interactions may elicit fire spread where none otherwise existed. Fire-fire interactions occur naturally when spot fires start ahead of the main fire and when separate fire events converge in one location. Interactions can be created intentionally during prescribed fires by using spatial ignition patterns. Mass fires are among the most extreme examples of interactive behavior. This paper presents a review of the detailed effects of fire-fire interaction in terms of merging or coalescence criteria, burning rates, flame dimensions, flame temperature, indraft velocity, pulsation, and convection column dynamics. Though relevant in many situations, these changes in fire behavior have yet to be included in any operational-fire models or decision support systems.

  10. Rumor spreading model with noise interference in complex social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Liang; Wang, Youguo

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, a modified susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model has been proposed to explore rumor diffusion on complex social networks. We take variation of connectivity into consideration and assume the variation as noise. On the basis of related literature on virus networks, the noise is described as standard Brownian motion while stochastic differential equations (SDE) have been derived to characterize dynamics of rumor diffusion both on homogeneous networks and heterogeneous networks. Then, theoretical analysis on homogeneous networks has been demonstrated to investigate the solution of SDE model and the steady state of rumor diffusion. Simulations both on Barabási-Albert (BA) network and Watts-Strogatz (WS) network display that the addition of noise accelerates rumor diffusion and expands diffusion size, meanwhile, the spreading speed on BA network is much faster than on WS network under the same noise intensity. In addition, there exists a rumor diffusion threshold in statistical average meaning on homogeneous network which is absent on heterogeneous network. Finally, we find a positive correlation between peak value of infected individuals and noise intensity while a negative correlation between rumor lifecycle and noise intensity overall.

  11. Fire safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keski-Rahkonen, O.; Bjoerkman, J.; Hostikka, S.; Mangs, J. [VTT Building Technology, Espoo (Finland); Huhtanen, R. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Palmen, H.; Salminen, A.; Turtola, A. [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland)

    1998-07-01

    According to experience and probabilistic risk assessments, fires present a significant hazard in a nuclear power plant. Fires may be initial events for accidents or affect safety systems planned to prevent accidents and to mitigate their consequences. The project consists of theoretical work, experiments and simulations aiming to increase the fire safety at nuclear power plants. The project has four target areas: (1) to produce validated models for numerical simulation programmes, (2) to produce new information on the behavior of equipment in case of fire, (3) to study applicability of new active fire protecting systems in nuclear power plants, and (4) to obtain quantitative knowledge of ignitions induced by important electric devices in nuclear power plants. These topics have been solved mainly experimentally, but modelling at different level is used to interpret experimental data, and to allow easy generalisation and engineering use of the obtained data. Numerical fire simulation has concentrated in comparison of CFD modelling of room fires, and fire spreading on cables on experimental data. So far the success has been good to fair. A simple analytical and numerical model has been developed for fire effluents spreading beyond the room of origin in mechanically strongly ventilated compartments. For behaviour of equipment in fire several full scale and scaled down calorimetric experiments were carried out on electronic cabinets, as well as on horizontal and vertical cable trays. These were carried out to supply material for CFD numerical simulation code validation. Several analytical models were developed and validated against obtained experimental results to allow quick calculations for PSA estimates as well as inter- and extrapolations to slightly different objects. Response times of different commercial fire detectors were determined for different types of smoke, especially emanating from smoldering and flaming cables to facilitate selection of proper detector

  12. Development of fire simulation models for radiative heat transfer and probabilistic risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hostikka, Simo

    2008-01-01

    An essential part of fire risk assessment is the analysis of fire hazards and fire propagation. In this work, models and tools for two different aspects of numerical fire simulation have been developed. The primary objectives have been firstly to investigate the possibility of exploiting state-of-the-art fire models within probabilistic fire risk assessments and secondly to develop a computationally efficient solver of thermal radiation for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) code. In the f...

  13. Tree cover bistability in the MPI Earth system model due to fire-vegetation feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasslop, Gitta; Brovkin, Victor; Kloster, Silvia; Reick, Christian

    2015-04-01

    The global distribution of tree cover is mainly limited by precipitation and temperature. Within tropical ecosystems different tree cover values have been observed in regions with similar climate. Satellite data even revealed a lack of ecosystems with tree coverage around 60% and dominant tree covers of 20% and 80%. Conceptual models have been used to explain this tree cover distribution and base it on a bistability in tree cover caused by fire-vegetation interactions or competition between trees and grasses. Some ecological models also show this property of multiple stable tree covers, but it remains unclear which mechanism is the cause for this behaviour. Vegetation models used in climate simulations usually use simple approaches and were criticised to neglect such ecological theories and misrepresent tropical tree cover distribution and dynamics. Here we show that including the process based fire model SPITFIRE generated a bistability in tree cover in the land surface model JSBACH. Previous model versions showed only one stable tree cover state. Using a conceptual model we can show that a bistability can occur due to a feedback between grasses and fire. Grasses and trees are represented in the model based on plant functional types. With respect to fire the main difference between grasses and trees is the fuel characteristics. Grass fuels are smaller in size, and have a higher surface area to volume ratio. These grass fuels dry faster increasing their flammability which leads to a higher fire rate of spread. Trees are characterized by coarse fuels, which are less likely to ignite and rather suppress fire. Therefore a higher fraction of grasses promotes fire, fire kills trees and following a fire, grasses establish faster. This feedback can stabilize ecosystems with low tree cover in a low tree cover state and systems with high tree cover in a high tree cover state. In previous model versions this feedback was absent. Based on the new JSBACH model driven with

  14. Fire exposed facades: Numerical modelling of the LEPIR2 testing facility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dréan Virginie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available LEPIR2 testing facility is aimed to evaluate the fire behaviour of construction solutions implemented on facade according with the experimental evaluation required by the French Technical Specification 249 (IT249 of the safety regulation. It aims to limit the risks of fire spreading by facades to upper levels. This facility involves a wood crib fire in the lower compartment of a full scale two levels high structure. Flames are coming outside from the compartment through windows openings and develop in front of the facade. Computational fluids dynamics simulations are carried out with the FDS code (Fire Dynamics Simulator for two full-scale experiments performed by Efectis France laboratory. The first objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of numerical model to reproduce quantitative results in terms of gas temperatures and heat flux on the tested facade for further evaluation of fire performances of an insulation solution. When experimental results are compared with numerical calculations, good agreement is found out for every quantities and each test. The proposed models for wood cribs and geometry give correct thermal loads and flames shape near the tested facade.

  15. Log-periodic behavior in a forest-fire model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. D. Malamud

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores log-periodicity in a forest-fire cellular-automata model. At each time step of this model a tree is dropped on a randomly chosen site; if the site is unoccupied, the tree is planted. Then, for a given sparking frequency, matches are dropped on a randomly chosen site; if the site is occupied by a tree, the tree ignites and an 'instantaneous' model fire consumes that tree and all adjacent trees. The resultant frequency-area distribution for the small and medium model fires is a power-law. However, if we consider very small sparking frequencies, the large model fires that span the square grid are dominant, and we find that the peaks in the frequency-area distribution of these large fires satisfy log-periodic scaling to a good approximation. This behavior can be examined using a simple mean-field model, where in time, the density of trees on the grid exponentially approaches unity. This exponential behavior coupled with a periodic or near-periodic sparking frequency also generates a sequence of peaks in the frequency-area distribution of large fires that satisfy log-periodic scaling. We conclude that the forest-fire model might provide a relatively simple explanation for the log-periodic behavior often seen in nature.

  16. A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain

    2011-01-01

    An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...

  17. Gaps in Data and Modeling Tools for Understanding Fire and Fire Effects in Tundra Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, N. H.; Miller, M. E.; Loboda, T. V.; Jenkins, L. K.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Suiter, A.; Hawkins, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    As the ecosystem science community learns more about tundra ecosystems and disturbance in tundra, a review of base data sets and ecological field data for the region shows there are many gaps that need to be filled. In this paper we will review efforts to improve our knowledge of the occurrence and impacts of fire in the North American tundra region completed under a NASA Terrestrial Ecology grant. Our main source of information is remote sensing data from satellite sensors and ecological data from past and recent field data collections by our team, collaborators, and others. Past fire occurrence is not well known for this region compared with other North American biomes. In this presentation we review an effort to use a semi-automated detection algorithm to identify past fire occurrence using the Landsat TM/ETM+ archives, pointing out some of the still-unaddressed issues for a full understanding of fire regime for the region. For this task, fires in Landsat scenes were mapped using the Random Forest classifier (Breiman 2001) to automatically detect potential burn scars. Random Forests is an ensemble classifier that employs machine learning to build a large collection of decision trees that are grown from a random selection of user supplied training data. A pixel's classification is then determined by which class receives the most 'votes' from each tree. We also review the use fire location records and existing modeling methods to quantify emissions from these fires. Based on existing maps of vegetation fuels, we used the approach developed for the Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS; French et al. 2011) to estimate emissions across the tundra region. WFEIS employs the Consume model (http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/research/smoke/consume/index.shtml) to estimate emissions by applying empirically developed relationships between fuels, fire conditions (weather-based fire indexes), and emissions. Here again, we will review the gaps in data and modeling

  18. Occupant evacuation model based on cellular automata in fire

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    By applying the rules set in traffic flow and pedestrian flow models, a basic cellular automata model is presented to simulate occupant evacuation in fire. Some extended models are introduced to study the special phenomena of evacuation from the fire room. The key of the models is the introduction of the danger grade which makes the route choice convenient and reasonable. Fire not only influences the emotional and behavioral characteristics of an individual but also affects his physical constitution, which reduces his maximal possible velocity. The models consider these influence factors by applying a set of simple but effective rules. It is needed to emphasize that all rules are established according to the essential phenomenon in fire evacuation, that is, all the occupants would try to move to the safest place as fast as possible. Some simulation examples are also presented to validate the applicability of the models.

  19. Mathematical approaches to modeling of cortical spreading depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Robert M.; Huang, Huaxiong; Wylie, Jonathan J.

    2013-12-01

    Migraine with aura (MwA) is a debilitating disease that afflicts about 25%-30% of migraine sufferers. During MwA, a visual illusion propagates in the visual field, then disappears, and is followed by a sustained headache. MwA was conjectured by Lashley to be related to some neurological phenomenon. A few years later, Leão observed electrophysiological waves in the brain that are now known as cortical spreading depression (CSD). CSD waves were soon conjectured to be the neurological phenomenon underlying MwA that had been suggested by Lashley. However, the confirmation of the link between MwA and CSD was not made until 2001 by Hadjikhani et al. [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 98, 4687-4692 (2001)] using functional MRI techniques. Despite the fact that CSD has been studied continuously since its discovery in 1944, our detailed understandings of the interactions between the mechanisms underlying CSD waves have remained elusive. The connection between MwA and CSD makes the understanding of CSD even more compelling and urgent. In addition to all of the information gleaned from the many experimental studies on CSD since its discovery, mathematical modeling studies provide a general and in some sense more precise alternative method for exploring a variety of mechanisms, which may be important to develop a comprehensive picture of the diverse mechanisms leading to CSD wave instigation and propagation. Some of the mechanisms that are believed to be important include ion diffusion, membrane ionic currents, osmotic effects, spatial buffering, neurotransmitter substances, gap junctions, metabolic pumps, and synaptic connections. Discrete and continuum models of CSD consist of coupled nonlinear differential equations for the ion concentrations. In this review of the current quantitative understanding of CSD, we focus on these modeling paradigms and various mechanisms that are felt to be important for CSD.

  20. Effect of modelling slum populations on influenza spread in Delhi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiangzhuo; Chu, Shuyu; Chungbaek, Youngyun; Khan, Maleq; Kuhlman, Christopher; Marathe, Achla; Mortveit, Henning; Vullikanti, Anil; Xie, Dawen

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This research studies the impact of influenza epidemic in the slum and non-slum areas of Delhi, the National Capital Territory of India, by taking proper account of slum demographics and residents’ activities, using a highly resolved social contact network of the 13.8 million residents of Delhi. Methods An SEIR model is used to simulate the spread of influenza on two different synthetic social contact networks of Delhi, one where slums and non-slums are treated the same in terms of their demographics and daily sets of activities and the other, where slum and non-slum regions have different attributes. Results Differences between the epidemic outcomes on the two networks are large. Time-to-peak infection is overestimated by several weeks, and the cumulative infection rate and peak infection rate are underestimated by 10–50%, when slum attributes are ignored. Conclusions Slum populations have a significant effect on influenza transmission in urban areas. Improper specification of slums in large urban regions results in underestimation of infections in the entire population and hence will lead to misguided interventions by policy planners. PMID:27687898

  1. Modeling the Spread of Tuberculosis in Semiclosed Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Herrera

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We address the problem of long-term dynamics of tuberculosis (TB and latent tuberculosis (LTB in semiclosed communities. These communities are congregate settings with the potential for sustained daily contact for weeks, months, and even years between their members. Basic examples of these communities are prisons, but certain urban/rural communities, some schools, among others could possibly fit well into this definition. These communities present a sort of ideal conditions for TB spread. In order to describe key relevant dynamics of the disease in these communities, we consider a five compartments SEIR model with five possible routes toward TB infection: primary infection after a contact with infected and infectious individuals (fast TB, endogenous reactivation after a period of latency (slow TB, relapse by natural causes after a cure, exogenous reinfection of latently infected, and exogenous reinfection of recovered individuals. We discuss the possible existence of multiple endemic equilibrium states and the role that the two types of exogenous reinfections in the long-term dynamics of the disease could play.

  2. Continuous Forest Fire Propagation in a Local Small World Network Model

    CERN Document Server

    Aguayo, F; Clerc, J -P; Porterie, B

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a new continuous forest fire model implemented as a weighted local small-world network approach. This new approach was designed to simulate fire patterns in real, heterogeneous landscapes. The wildland fire spread is simulated on a square lattice in which each cell represents an area of the land's surface. The interaction between burning and non-burning cells, in the present work induced by flame radiation, may be extended well beyond nearest neighbors. It depends on local conditions of topography and vegetation types. An approach based on a solid flame model is used to predict the radiative heat flux from the flame generated by the burning of each site towards its neighbors. The weighting procedure takes into account the self-degradation of the tree and the ignition processes of a combustible cell through time. The model is tested on a field presenting a range of slopes and with data collected from a real wildfire scenario. The critical behavior of the spreading process...

  3. Modelling Effectiveness of Machine Gun Fire

    OpenAIRE

    Dutta, D.; S. Sabhanval

    2002-01-01

    Machine gun is an effective infantry weapon which can cause heavy damage to enemy targets, if sited in a tactically favourable position. It can be engaged effectively against both static and moving targets. The paper deals with the determination of target vulnerability under effective machine gun fire considering relevant tactical parameters, eg, target aiming point, trajectory of fire, sweep angle, target frontage, posture, direction of attack, etc.

  4. Modelling Effectiveness of Machine Gun Fire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Dutta

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available Machine gun is an effective infantry weapon which can cause heavy damage to enemy targets, if sited in a tactically favourable position. It can be engaged effectively against both static and moving targets. The paper deals with the determination of target vulnerability under effective machine gun fire considering relevant tactical parameters, eg, target aiming point, trajectory of fire, sweep angle, target frontage, posture, direction of attack, etc.

  5. An Improved Adaptive model for Information Recommending and Spreading

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Duan-Bing; GAO Hui

    2012-01-01

    People in the Internet era have to cope with information overload and expend great effort on finding what they need.Recent experiments indicate that recommendations based on users' past activities are usually less favored than those based on social relationships,and thus many researchers have proposed adaptive algorithms on social recommendation.However,in those methods,quite a number of users have little chance to recommend information,which might prevent valuable information from spreading.We present an improved algorithm that allows more users to have enough followers to spread information.Experimental results demonstrate that both recommendation precision and spreading effectiveness of our method can be improved significantly.%People in the Internet era have to cope with information overload and expend great effort on finding what they need. Recent experiments indicate that recommendations based on users' past activities are usually less favored than those based on social relationships, and thus many researchers have proposed adaptive algorithms on social recommendation. However, in those methods, quite a number of users have little chance to recommend information, which might prevent valuable information from spreading. We present an improved algorithm that allows more users to have enough followers to spread information. Experimental results demonstrate that both recommendation precision and spreading effectiveness of our method can be improved significantly.

  6. Investigation of the forest-fire model on a small-world network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, I; Matthai, C C

    2003-09-01

    It is shown that the forest-fire model of Bak et al. run on a square lattice network with additional long-range interactions in the spirit of a small-world network results in a scale-free system reminiscent of self-organized criticality without recourse to fine tuning. As the number of these long-range interactions is increased, the cluster size distribution exponent is found to decrease in magnitude as the small-world regime is entered, indicating a change in its universality class. It is suggested that such a model could have applicability in the study of disease spreading in human populations.

  7. A Comparison between Two Simulation Models for Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette; Stockmarr, Anders;

    2014-01-01

    Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were used in order to compare the models' predictions in term of disease spread, consequence, and the ranking of the applied control strategies, and to discuss the effect of the way disease spread is modeled on the predicted outcomes...

  8. Modeling Fire Emissions across Central and Southern Italy: Implications for Land and Fire Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    Fires play a relevant role in the global and regional carbon cycle, representing a remarkable source of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that influence atmosphere budgets and climate. In addition, the wildfire increase projected in Southern Europe due to climate change (CC) and concurrent exacerbation of extreme weather conditions could also lead to a significant rise in GHG. Recently, in the context of the Italian National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (SNAC), several approaches were identified as valuable tools to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires, in order to reduce landscape susceptibility and to contribute to the efforts of carbon emission mitigation proposed within the Kyoto protocol. Active forest and fuel management (such as prescribed burning, fuel reduction and removal, weed and flammable shrub control, creation of fuel discontinuity) is recognised to be a key element to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires. Despite this, overall there is a lack of studies about the effectiveness of fire emission mitigation strategies. The current work aims to analyse the potential of a combination of fuel management practices in mitigating emissions from forest fires and evaluate valuable and viable options across Central and Southern Italy. These objectives were achieved throughout a retrospective application of an integrated approach combining a fire emission model (FOFEM - First Order Fire Effect Model) with spatially explicit, comprehensive, and accurate fire, vegetation and weather data for the period 2004-2012. Furthermore, a number of silvicultural techniques were combined to develop several fuel management scenarios and then tested to evaluate their potential in mitigating fire emissions.The preliminary results showed the crucial role of appropriate fuel, fire behavior, and weather data to reduce bias in quantifying the source and the composition of fire emissions and to attain reasonable estimations. Also, the current

  9. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  10. Fractal properties of forest fires in Amazonia as a basis for modelling pan-tropical burnt area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, I. N.; Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Lima, A.; Shimabukuro, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.

    2014-03-01

    Current methods for modelling burnt area in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) involve complex fire spread calculations, which rely on many inputs, including fuel characteristics, wind speed and countless parameters. They are therefore susceptible to large uncertainties through error propagation, but undeniably useful for modelling specific, small-scale burns. Using observed fractal distributions of fire scars in Brazilian Amazonia in 2005, we propose an alternative burnt area model for tropical forests, with fire counts as sole input and few parameters. This model is intended for predicting large-scale burnt area rather than looking at individual fire events. A simple parameterization of a tapered fractal distribution is calibrated at multiple spatial resolutions using a satellite-derived burnt area map. The model is capable of accurately reproducing the total area burnt (16 387 km2) and its spatial distribution. When tested pan-tropically using the MODIS MCD14ML active fire product, the model accurately predicts temporal and spatial fire trends, but the magnitude of the differences between these estimates and the GFED3.1 burnt area products varies per continent.

  11. Simulation models WRF-Fire for wildland fire to purpose of disaster mitigation in Indonesia (Case study: Wildland fire on September, 23th 2015 in South of Sumatera)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anggoro, Adityo Mega; Putra, Agie Wandala; Hutasoit, Budi Saritua

    2017-07-01

    Indonesia is one of the countries known as a one of the world lungs because it has a large forest and varied species. Besides that Indonesia has frequently hit by wildfires a year, one in 2015 yesterday which was hotly discussed because of the impact of forest fires that disrupt transport activity for flights resulting from interruption of smoke from fires. Therefore, it is important to be able to model the behavior of forest fires to disaster mitigation. In this study simulated forest fires in the region of South Sumatra on September 23, 2015 by the coordinates of fires 3,17°S and 106,03°E, this information is obtained from observation satellite imagery LANDSAT8 and hotspot distribution information from LAPAN. WRF-Fire is a combination model of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) with dynamic ARW core with fire semi-empirical models, based on the level set method. Methods of data analysis using descriptive analysis, comparative and spatial. The results showed that the distribution pattern of the fire resulting models have similarities with observation, the fire along with the smoke moving toward the northwest, then from the simulation results of surface winds and the invasion of fire has a correlation value of 0.62. WRF-Fire models able to simulate the extent of wildland fire even though it has few results overestimate is 1.725 ha and observations is 1.709 ha, this shows that the WRF-Fire models able be used to help mitigate the catastrophic wildland fire in Indonesia.

  12. Spread and Quote-Update Frequency of the Limit-Order Driven Sergei Maslov Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIU Tian; CHEN Guang

    2007-01-01

    @@ We perform numerical simulations of the limit-order driven Sergei Maslov (SM) model and investigate the probability distribution and autocorrelation function of the bid-ask spread S and the quote-update frequency U.For the probability distribution, the model successfully reproduces the power law decay of the spread and the exponential decay of the quote-update frequency. For the autocorrelation function, both the spread and the quote-update frequency of the model decay by a power law, which is consistent with the empirical study. We obtain the power law exponent 0.54 for the spread, which is in good agreement with the real financial market.

  13. Numerical Modelling by FLAC on Coal Fires in North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusat, D.; Drebenstedt, C.

    2009-04-01

    Coal fires occur in many countries all over the world (e.g. Australia, China, India, Indonesia, USA and Russia) in underground and on surface. In China the most coal fires occur especially in the North. Economical and environmental damages are the negative effects of the coal fires: coal fires induce open fractures and fissures within the seam and neighbouring rocks. So that these are the predominant pathways for oxygen flow and exhaust gases from a coal fire. All over northern China there are a large number of coal fires, which cause and estimated yearly coal loss of between 100 and 200 million tons ([1], [2], [3]). Spontaneous combustion is a very complicated process and is influenced by number of factors. The process is an exothermic reaction in which the heat generated is dissipated by conduction to the surrounding environment, by radiation, by convection to the ventilation flow, and in some cases by evaporation of moisture from the coal [4]. The coal fires are very serious in China, and the dangerous extent of spontaneous combustion is bad which occupies about 72.9% in mining coal seams. During coal mining in China, the coal fires of spontaneous combustion are quite severity. The dangerous of coal spontaneous combustion has been in 56% of state major coalmines [5]. The 2D and 3D-simulation models describing coal fire damages are strong tools to predict fractures and fissures, to estimate the risk of coal fire propagation into neighbouring seams, to test and evaluate coal fire fighting and prevention methods. The numerical simulations of the rock mechanical model were made with the software for geomechanical and geotechnical calculations, the programs FLAC and FLAC3D [6]. To fight again the coal fires, exist several fire fighting techniques. Water, slurries or liquefied nitrogen can be injected to cool down the coal or cut of air supply with the backfill and thereby extinct the fire. Air supply also can be cut of by covering the coal by soil or sealing of the

  14. Integration of satellite fire products into MPI Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khlystova, Iryna G.; Kloster, Silvia

    2013-04-01

    Fires are the ubiquitous phenomenon affecting all natural biomes. Since the beginning of the satellite Era, fires are being continuously observed from satellites. The most interesting satellite parameter retrieved from satellite measurements is the burned area. Combined with information on biomass available for burning the burned area can be translated into climate relevant carbon emissions from fires into the atmosphere. In this study we integrate observed burned area into a global vegetation model to derive global fire emissions. Global continuous burned area dataset is provided by the Global Fire Emissions Dataset (GFED). GFED products were obtained from MODIS (and pre-MODIS) satellites and are available for the time period of 14 years (1997-2011). This dataset is widely used, well documented and supported by periodical updates containing new features. We integrate the global burned area product into the land model JSBACH, a part of the Earth-System model developed at the Max Plank Institute for Meteorology. The land model JSBACH simulates land biomass in terms of carbon content. Fire is an important disturbance process in the Earth's carbon cycle and affects mainly the carbon stored in vegetation. In the standard JSBACH version fire is represented by process based algorithms. Using the satellite data as an alternative we are targeting better comparability of modeled carbon emissions with independent satellite measurements of atmospheric composition. The structure of burned vegetation inside of a biome can be described as the balance between woody and herbaceous vegetation. GFED provides in addition to the burned area satellite derived information of the tree cover distribution within the burned area. Using this dataset, we can attribute the burned area to the respective simulated herbaceous or woody biomass within the vegetation model. By testing several extreme cases we evaluate the quantitative impact of vegetation balance between woody and herbaceous

  15. SICR rumor spreading model in complex networks: Counterattack and self-resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zan, Yongli; Wu, Jianliang; Li, Ping; Yu, Qinglin

    2014-07-01

    Rumor is an important form of social interaction. However, spreading of harmful rumors could have a significant negative impact on the well-being of the society. In this paper, considering the counterattack mechanism of the rumor spreading, we introduce two new models: Susceptible-Infective-Counterattack-Refractory (SICR) model and adjusted-SICR model. We then derive mean-field equations to describe their dynamics in homogeneous networks and conduct the steady-state analysis. We also introduce the self-resistance parameter τ, and study the influence of this parameter on rumor spreading. Numerical simulations are performed to compare the SICR model with the SIR model and the adjusted-SICR model, respectively, and we investigate the spreading peak of the rumor and the final size of the rumor with various parameters. Simulation results are congruent exactly with the theoretical analysis. The experiment reveals some interesting patterns of rumor spreading involved with counterattack force.

  16. Villaflores: Municipal forest fire management model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedro Martínez Muñoz; Carlos Alberto Velázquez Sanabria

    2013-01-01

    As provided for in the General Law on Sustainable Forestry Development, the Municipality of Villaflores has worked on a continuous basis since 2002 to reduce the damage caused by forest fires as part of its working agenda, in conjunction with Federal and State agencies and NGOs. The work plan has the following phases: a) Inter-agency coordination:...

  17. The power of a good idea: quantitative modeling of the spread of ideas from epidemiological models

    CERN Document Server

    Bettencourt, L M A; Kaiser, D I; Castillo-Chavez, C; Bettencourt, Lu\\'{i}s M.A.; Cintr\\'{o}n-Arias, Ariel; Kaiser, David I.; Castillo-Ch\\'{a}vez, Carlos

    2005-01-01

    The population dynamics underlying the diffusion of ideas hold many qualitative similarities to those involved in the spread of infections. In spite of much suggestive evidence this analogy is hardly ever quantified in useful ways. The standard benefit of modeling epidemics is the ability to estimate quantitatively population average parameters, such as interpersonal contact rates, incubation times, duration of infectious periods, etc. In most cases such quantities generalize naturally to the spread of ideas and provide a simple means of quantifying sociological and behavioral patterns. Here we apply several paradigmatic models of epidemics to empirical data on the advent and spread of Feynman diagrams through the theoretical physics communities of the USA, Japan, and the USSR in the period immediately after World War II. This test case has the advantage of having been studied historically in great detail, which allows validation of our results. We estimate the effectiveness of adoption of the idea in the thr...

  18. Fractal properties of forest fires in Amazonia as a basis for modelling pan-tropical burned area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, I. N.; Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Lima, A.; Shimabukuro, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.

    2013-08-01

    Current methods for modelling burnt area in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models involve complex fire spread calculations, which rely on many inputs, including fuel characteristics, wind speed and countless parameters. They are therefore susceptible to large uncertainties through error propagation. Using observed fractal distributions of fire scars in Brazilian Amazonia, we propose an alternative burnt area model for tropical forests, with fire counts as sole input and few parameters. Several parameterizations of two possible distributions are calibrated at multiple spatial resolutions using a satellite-derived burned area map, and compared. The tapered Pareto model most accurately simulates the total area burnt (only 3.5 km2 larger than the recorded 16 387 km2) and its spatial distribution. When tested pan-tropically using MODIS MCD14ML fire counts, the model accurately predicts temporal and spatial fire trends, but produces generally higher estimates than the GFED3.1 burnt area product, suggesting higher pan-tropical carbon emissions from fires than previously estimated.

  19. A model of backdraft phenomenon in building fires

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In order to further investigate the physical mechanism of the backdraft phenomenon in building fires, a simplified math ematical model is established based on energy balance equation, and its catastrophe mechanism is analyzed based on catastrophe theory, and the relationship between system control variables and fire conditions is studied. It is indicated that the backdraft phenomenon is a kind of typical catastrophe behavior, and of the common characteristics of catastrophe.

  20. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and potential application to fire and fuels management for the Savannah River Site.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurth, Laurie; Hollingsworth, LaWen; Shea, Dan

    2011-12-20

    This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for the Savannah River Site in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S. using three data sources: FCCS, LANDFIRE, and SWRA. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the U.S. using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern U.S. using satellite imagery.

  1. An Integrated Model for Identifying Linkages Between the Management of Fuel Treatments, Fire and Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, R. R.; Anderson, S.; Moritz, M.; Plantinga, A.; Tague, C.

    2015-12-01

    Vegetation fuel treatments (e.g. thinning, prescribed burning) are a frequent tool for managing fire-prone landscapes. However, predicting how fuel treatments may affect future wildfire risk and associated ecosystem services, such as forest water availability and streamflow, remains a challenge. This challenge is in part due to the large range of conditions under which fuel treatments may be implemented, as response is likely to vary with species type, rates of vegetation regrowth, meteorological conditions and physiographic properties of the treated site. It is also due to insufficient understanding of how social factors such as political pressure, public demands and economic constraints affect fuel management decisions. To examine the feedbacks between ecological and social dimensions of fuel treatments, we present an integrated model that links a biophysical model that simulates vegetation and hydrology (RHESSys), a fire spread model (WMFire) and an empirical fuel treatment model that accounts for agency decision-making. We use this model to investigate how management decisions affect landscape fuel loads, which in turn affect fire severity and ecosystem services, which feedback to management decisions on fuel treatments. We hypothesize that this latter effect will be driven by salience theory, which predicts that fuel treatments are more likely to occur following major wildfire events. The integrated model provides a flexible framework for answering novel questions about fuel treatments that span social and ecological domains, areas that have previously been treated separately.

  2. Fire risk in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Seth Howard

    Fire is an integral part of ecosystems in the western United States. Decades of fire suppression have led to (unnaturally) large accumulations of fuel in some forest communities, such as the lower elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada. Urban sprawl into fire prone chaparral vegetation in southern California has put human lives at risk and the decreased fire return intervals have put the vegetation community at risk of type conversion. This research examines the factors affecting fire risk in two of the dominant landscapes in the state of California, chaparral and inland coniferous forests. Live fuel moisture (LFM) is important for fire ignition, spread rate, and intensity in chaparral. LFM maps were generated for Los Angeles County by developing and then inverting robust cross-validated regression equations from time series field data and vegetation indices (VIs) and phenological metrics from MODIS data. Fire fuels, including understory fuels which are not visible to remote sensing instruments, were mapped in Yosemite National Park using the random forests decision tree algorithm and climatic, topographic, remotely sensed, and fire history variables. Combining the disparate data sources served to improve classification accuracies. The models were inverted to produce maps of fuel models and fuel amounts, and these showed that fire fuel amounts are highest in the low elevation forests that have been most affected by fire suppression impacting the natural fire regime. Wildland fires in chaparral commonly burn in late summer or fall when LFM is near its annual low, however, the Jesusita Fire burned in early May of 2009, when LFM was still relatively high. The HFire fire spread model was used to simulate the growth of the Jesusita Fire using LFM maps derived from imagery acquired at the time of the fire and imagery acquired in late August to determine how much different the fire would have been if it had occurred later in the year. Simulated fires were 1.5 times larger

  3. Coupling CFAST fire modeling and SAPHIRE probabilistic assessment software for internal fire safety evaluation of a typical TRIGA research reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safaei Arshi, Saiedeh [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Nematollahi, Mohammadreza, E-mail: nema@shirazu.ac.i [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Safety Research Center of Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sepanloo, Kamran [Safety Research Center of Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2010-03-15

    Due to the significant threat of internal fires for the safety operation of nuclear reactors, presumed fire scenarios with potential hazards for loss of typical research reactor safety functions are analyzed by coupling CFAST fire modeling and SAPHIRE probabilistic assessment software. The investigations show that fire hazards associated with electrical cable insulation, lubricating oils, diesel, electrical equipment and carbon filters may lead to unsafe situations called core damage states. Using system-specific event trees, the occurrence frequency of core damage states after the occurrence of each possible fire scenario in critical fire compartments is evaluated. Probability that the fire ignited in the given fire compartment will burn long enough to cause the extent of damage defined by each fire scenario is calculated by means of detection-suppression event tree. As a part of detection-suppression event trees quantification, and also for generating the necessary input data for evaluating the frequency of core damage states by SAPHIRE 7.0 software, CFAST fire modeling software is applied. The results provide a probabilistic measure of the quality of existing fire protection systems in order to maintain the reactor at a reasonable safety level.

  4. Infinity computations in cellular automaton forest-fire model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iudin, D. I.; Sergeyev, Ya. D.; Hayakawa, M.

    2015-03-01

    Recently a number of traditional models related to the percolation theory has been considered by means of a new computational methodology that does not use Cantor's ideas and describes infinite and infinitesimal numbers in accordance with the principle 'The whole is greater than the part' (Euclid's Common Notion 5). Here we apply the new arithmetic to a cellular automaton forest-fire model which is connected with the percolation methodology and in some sense combines the dynamic and the static percolation problems and under certain conditions exhibits critical fluctuations. It is well known that there exist two versions of the model: real forest-fire model where fire catches adjacent trees in the forest in the step by step manner and simplified version with instantaneous combustion. Using new approach we observe that in both situations we deal with the same model but with different time resolution. We show that depending on the "microscope" we use the same cellular automaton forest-fire model reveals either instantaneous forest combustion or step by step firing. By means of the new approach it was also observed that as far as we choose an infinitesimal tree growing rate and infinitesimal ratio between the ignition probability and the growth probability we determine the measure or extent of the system size infinity that provides the criticality of the system dynamics. Correspondent inequalities for grosspowers are derived.

  5. Wild Fire Emissions for the NOAA Operational HYSPLIT Smoke Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, H. C.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; McQueen, J.; DiMego, G.; Kondragunta, S.; Gorline, J.; Huang, J. P.; Stunder, B.; Stein, A. F.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

    2015-12-01

    Particulate Matter (PM) generated from forest fires often lead to degraded visibility and unhealthy air quality in nearby and downstream areas. To provide near-real time PM information to the state and local agencies, the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) operational HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) smoke modeling system (NWS/HYSPLIT smoke) provides the forecast of smoke concentration resulting from fire emissions driven by the NWS North American Model 12 km weather predictions. The NWS/HYSPLIT smoke incorporates the U.S. Forest Service BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework (BlueSky) to provide smoke fire emissions along with the input fire locations from the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)'s Hazard Mapping System fire and smoke detection system. Experienced analysts inspect satellite imagery from multiple sensors onboard geostationary and orbital satellites to identify the location, size and duration of smoke emissions for the model. NWS/HYSPLIT smoke is being updated to use a newer version of USFS BlueSky. The updated BlueSky incorporates the Fuel Characteristic Classification System version 2 (FCCS2) over the continental U.S. and Alaska. FCCS2 includes a more detailed description of fuel loadings with additional plant type categories. The updated BlueSky also utilizes an improved fuel consumption model and fire emission production system. For the period of August 2014 and June 2015, NWS/HYSPLIT smoke simulations show that fire smoke emissions with updated BlueSky are stronger than the current operational BlueSky in the Northwest U.S. For the same comparisons, weaker fire smoke emissions from the updated BlueSky were observed over the middle and eastern part of the U.S. A statistical evaluation of NWS/HYSPLIT smoke predicted total column concentration compared to NOAA NESDIS GOES EAST Aerosol Smoke Product retrievals is underway. Preliminary results show that using the newer version

  6. Molecular analyses of Erwinia amylovora strains isolated in Russia, Poland, Slovenia and Austria describing further spread of fire blight in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jock, Susanne; Wensing, Annette; Pulawska, Joanna; Drenova, Nataliya; Dreo, Tanja; Geider, Klaus

    2013-08-25

    Fire blight, a bacteriosis of apple and pear, was assayed with molecular tools to associate its origin in Russia, Slovenia and south-eastern Austria with neighboring countries. The identification of all investigated strains was confirmed by MALDI-TOF mass spectroscopy except one. Independent isolation was verified by the level of amylovoran synthesis and by the number of short sequence DNA repeats in plasmid pEA29. DNA of gently lysed E. amylovora strains from Russia, Slovenia, Austria, Hungary, Italy, Spain, Croatia, Poland, Central Europe and Iran was treated with restriction enzymes XbaI and SpeI to create typical banding patterns for PFGE analysis. The pattern Pt2 indicated that most Russian E. amylovora strains were related to strains from Turkey and Iran. Strains from Slovenia exhibited patterns Pt3 and Pt2, both present in the neighboring countries. Strains were also probed for the recently described plasmid pEI70 detected in Pt1 strains from Poland and in Pt3 strains from other countries. The distribution of pattern Pt3 suggests distribution of fire blight from Belgium and the Netherlands to Central Spain and Northern Italy and then north to Carinthia. The PFGE patterns indicate that trade of plants may have introduced fire blight into southern parts of Europe proceeded by sequential spread.

  7. Spreading and generalized propagating speeds of discrete KPP models in time varying environments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenxian SHEN

    2009-01-01

    The current paper deals with spatial spreading and front propagating dynamics for spatially discrete KPP (Kolmogorov, Petrovsky and Paskunov) models in time recurrent environments, which include time periodic and almost periodic environments as special cases. The notions of spreading speed interval, generalized propagating speed interval, and traveling wave solutions are first introduced, which are proper modifications of those introduced for spatially continuous KPP models in time almost periodic environments. Among others, it is then shown that the spreading speed interval in a given direction is the minimal generalized propagating speed interval in that direction. Some important upper and lower bounds for the spreading and generalized propagating speed intervals are provided. When the environment is unique ergodic and the so called linear determinacy condition is satisfied, it is shown that the spreading speed interval in any direction is a singleton (called the spreading speed), which equals the classical spreading speed if the environment is actually periodic. Moreover, in such a case, a variational principle for the spreading speed is established and it is shown that there is a front of speed c in a given direction if and only if c is greater than or equal to the spreading speed in that direction.

  8. Modeling the Maximum Spreading of Liquid Droplets Impacting Wetting and Nonwetting Surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Bong; Derome, Dominique; Guyer, Robert; Carmeliet, Jan

    2016-02-09

    Droplet impact has been imaged on different rigid, smooth, and rough substrates for three liquids with different viscosity and surface tension, with special attention to the lower impact velocity range. Of all studied parameters, only surface tension and viscosity, thus the liquid properties, clearly play a role in terms of the attained maximum spreading ratio of the impacting droplet. Surface roughness and type of surface (steel, aluminum, and parafilm) slightly affect the dynamic wettability and maximum spreading at low impact velocity. The dynamic contact angle at maximum spreading has been identified to properly characterize this dynamic spreading process, especially at low impact velocity where dynamic wetting plays an important role. The dynamic contact angle is found to be generally higher than the equilibrium contact angle, showing that statically wetting surfaces can become less wetting or even nonwetting under dynamic droplet impact. An improved energy balance model for maximum spreading ratio is proposed based on a correct analytical modeling of the time at maximum spreading, which determines the viscous dissipation. Experiments show that the time at maximum spreading decreases with impact velocity depending on the surface tension of the liquid, and a scaling with maximum spreading diameter and surface tension is proposed. A second improvement is based on the use of the dynamic contact angle at maximum spreading, instead of quasi-static contact angles, to describe the dynamic wetting process at low impact velocity. This improved model showed good agreement compared to experiments for the maximum spreading ratio versus impact velocity for different liquids, and a better prediction compared to other models in literature. In particular, scaling according to We(1/2) is found invalid for low velocities, since the curves bend over to higher maximum spreading ratios due to the dynamic wetting process.

  9. Modelling and mapping spread in pest risk analysis: a generic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kehlenbeck, H.; Robinet, C.; Werf, van der W.; Kriticos, D.; Reynaud, P.; Baker, R.

    2012-01-01

    Assessing the likelihood and magnitude of spread is one of the cornerstones of pest risk analysis (PRA), and is usually based on qualitative expert judgment. This paper proposes a suite of simple ecological models to support risk assessors who also wish to estimate the rate and extent of spread, e.g

  10. Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ssematimba, A.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Jong, de M.

    2012-01-01

    A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles

  11. Systems and models of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Kielak

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents fire blight prediction models and systems, developed in Europe (system Billing - versions: BOS, BRS, BIS95 and originated from this system: Firescreen, FEUERBRA and ANLAFBRA and in United States (Californian system, model Maryblyt and system Cougarblight. Use of above models and systems in various climatic-geographic conditions and comparison of obtained prognostic data to real fire blight occurrence is reviewed. The newest trends in research on improvement of prognostic analyses parameters with their adjustment to particular conditions and consideration of infection source occurrence are also presented.

  12. An Information Perception-Based Emotion Contagion Model for Fire Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting Ting; Liu, Zhen; Ma, Minhua; Xuan, Rongrong; Chen, Tian; Lu, Tao; Yu, Lipeng

    2017-03-01

    In fires, people are easier to lose their mind. Panic will lead to irrational behavior and irreparable tragedy. It has great practical significance to make contingency plans for crowd evacuation in fires. However, existing studies about crowd simulation always paid much attention on the crowd density, but little attention on emotional contagion that may cause a panic. Based on settings about information space and information sharing, this paper proposes an emotional contagion model for crowd in panic situations. With the proposed model, a behavior mechanism is constructed for agents in the crowd and a prototype of system is developed for crowd simulation. Experiments are carried out to verify the proposed model. The results showed that the spread of panic not only related to the crowd density and the individual comfort level, but also related to people's prior knowledge of fire evacuation. The model provides a new way for safety education and evacuation management. It is possible to avoid and reduce unsafe factors in the crowd with the lowest cost.

  13. A Hybrid Model for Disease Spread and an Application to the SARS Pandemic

    CERN Document Server

    Yoneyama, Teruhiko; Krishnamoorthy, Mukkai

    2010-01-01

    Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level simulations, which are harder to apply at a global scale. This paper introduces a hybrid model for pandemics considering both global and local spread of infections. We hypothesize that the spread of an infectious disease between regions is significantly influenced by global traffic patterns and the spread within a region is influenced by local conditions. Thus we model the spread of pandemics considering the connections between regions for the global spread of infection and population density based on the SEIR model for the local spread of infection. We validate our hybrid model by carrying out a simulation study for the spread of SARS pandemic of 2002-2003 using available data on population, population density, and traffic networks between different regions. While it is well-known ...

  14. Modeling the variability of firing rate of retinal ganglion cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, M W

    1992-12-01

    Impulse trains simulating the maintained discharges of retinal ganglion cells were generated by digital realizations of the integrate-and-fire model. If the mean rate were set by a "bias" level added to "noise," the variability of firing would be related to the mean firing rate as an inverse square root law; the maintained discharges of retinal ganglion cells deviate systematically from such a relationship. A more realistic relationship can be obtained if the integrate-and-fire mechanism is "leaky"; with this refinement, the integrate-and-fire model captures the essential features of the data. However, the model shows that the distribution of intervals is insensitive to that of the underlying variability. The leakage time constant, threshold, and distribution of the noise are confounded, rendering the model unspecifiable. Another aspect of variability is presented by the variance of responses to repeated discrete stimuli. The variance of response rate increases with the mean response amplitude; the nature of that relationship depends on the duration of the periods in which the response is sampled. These results have defied explanation. But if it is assumed that variability depends on mean rate in the way observed for maintained discharges, the variability of responses to abrupt changes in lighting can be predicted from the observed mean responses. The parameters that provide the best fits for the variability of responses also provide a reasonable fit to the variability of maintained discharges.

  15. Fire danger and fire behavior modeling systems in Australia, Europe, and North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis M. Fujioka; A. Malcolm Gill; Domingos X. Viegas; B. Mike Wotton

    2009-01-01

    Wildland fire occurrence and behavior are complex phenomena involving essentially fuel (vegetation), topography, and weather. Fire managers around the world use a variety of systems to track and predict fire danger and fire behavior, at spatial scales that span from local to global extents, and temporal scales ranging from minutes to seasons. The fire management...

  16. The Effects of Dynamical Synapses on Firing Rate Activity: A Spiking Neural Network Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Radwa; Moftah, Marie Z; Moustafa, Ahmed A

    2017-09-18

    Accumulating evidence relates the fine-tuning of synaptic maturation and regulation of neural network activity to several key factors, including GABAA signaling and a lateral spread length between neighboring neurons (i.e. local connectivity). Furthermore, a number of studies consider Short-Term synaptic Plasticity (STP) as an essential element in the instant modification of synaptic efficacy in the neuronal network and in modulating responses to sustained ranges of external Poisson Input Frequency (IF). Nevertheless, evaluating the firing activity in response to the dynamical interaction between STP (triggered by ranges of IF), and these key parameters in vitro remains elusive. Therefore, we designed a Spiking Neural Network (SNN) model in which we incorporated the following parameters: local density of arbor essences and a lateral spread length between neighboring neurons. We also created several network scenarios based on these key parameters. Then, we implemented two classes of STP: (1) Short-Term synaptic Depression (STD), and (2) Short-Term synaptic Facilitation (STF). Each class has two differential forms based on the parametric value of its synaptic time constant (either for depressing or facilitating synapses). Lastly, we compared the neural firing responses before and after the treatment with STP. We found that dynamical synapses(STP) have a critical differential role on evaluating, and modulating the firing rate activity in each network scenario. Moreover, we investigated the impact of changing the balance between excitation (E) / inhibition (I) on stabilizing this firing activity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  17. THE COMBUSTION CHARACTERISTICS OF A MOVABLE LINEAR FIRE SEAT IN MINE FIRES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王德明; 王省身

    1996-01-01

    Because of the difficulties of describing the process of combustion of underground mine fires, usually the fire seat is considered as a fixed point in the methods of mine fire computer simulation, however this is not in keeping with the feature of the distribution of the combustibles and the process of combustion in mine fires. A conception about movable linear fire seat is put forward first by the authors, together with the calculated models of the thermal decomposition rate, flame spreading velocity and the steady burning length of a linear fire seat etc. The paper also introduces the results of the application of these models.

  18. Tectonic microplates in a wax model of sea-floor spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Richard F.; Ragnarsson, Rolf; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

    2005-01-01

    Rotating, growing microplates are observed in a wax analogue model of sea-floor spreading. Wax microplates are kinematically similar to sea-floor tectonic microplates in terms of spreading rate and growth rate. Furthermore, their spiral pseudofault geometry is quantitatively consistent with Schouten's oceanic microplate model. These results suggest that Schouten's edge-driven microplate model captures the kinematics of tectonic microplate evolution on Earth. Based on the wax observations, a theory for the nucleation of overlapping spreading centres, the precursors of tectonic microplates, is developed.

  19. FireStem2D--a two-dimensional heat transfer model for simulating tree stem injury in fires.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Efthalia K Chatziefstratiou

    Full Text Available FireStem2D, a software tool for predicting tree stem heating and injury in forest fires, is a physically-based, two-dimensional model of stem thermodynamics that results from heating at the bark surface. It builds on an earlier one-dimensional model (FireStem and provides improved capabilities for predicting fire-induced mortality and injury before a fire occurs by resolving stem moisture loss, temperatures through the stem, degree of bark charring, and necrotic depth around the stem. We present the results of numerical parameterization and model evaluation experiments for FireStem2D that simulate laboratory stem-heating experiments of 52 tree sections from 25 trees. We also conducted a set of virtual sensitivity analysis experiments to test the effects of unevenness of heating around the stem and with aboveground height using data from two studies: a low-intensity surface fire and a more intense crown fire. The model allows for improved understanding and prediction of the effects of wildland fire on injury and mortality of trees of different species and sizes.

  20. The modeled effects of fire on carbon balance and vegetation abundance in Alaskan tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietze, M. C.; Davidson, C. D.; Kelly, R.; Higuera, P. E.; Hu, F.

    2012-12-01

    Arctic climate is warming at a rate disproportionately faster than the rest of the world. Changes have been observed within the tundra that are attributed to this trend, including active layer thickening, shrub land expansion, and increases in fire frequency. Whether tundra remains a global net sink of carbon could depend upon the effects of fire on vegetation, specifically concerning the speed at which vegetation reestablishes, the stimulation of growth after fire, and the changes that occur in species composition during succession. While rapid regeneration of graminoid vegetation favors the spread of this functional type in early succession, late succession appears to favor shrub vegetation at abundances greater than those observed before fire. Possible reasons for this latter observation include changes in albedo, soil insulation, and soil moisture regimes. Here we investigate the course of succession after fire disturbance within tundra ecosystems, and the mechanisms involved. A series of simulated burn experiments were conducted on the burn site left by the 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire to access the behavior of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 (ED2) in the simulation of fire on the tundra. The land surface sub-model within ED is modified to improve simulate permafrost through the effects of an increased soil-column depth, a peat texture class, and the effects of wind compaction and depth hoar on snow density. Parameterization is conducted through Bayesian techniques used to constrain parameter distributions based upon data from a literature survey, field measurements at Toolik Lake, Alaska, and a data assimilation over three datasets. At each step, priority was assigned to measurements that could constrain parameters that account for the greatest explained variance in model output as determined through sensitivity analysis. Following parameterization, a series of simulations were performed to gauge the suitability of the model in predicting carbon balance and

  1. Individual-based lattice model for spatial spread of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henryk Fuks

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a lattice gas cellular automaton (LGCA to study spatial and temporal dynamics of an epidemic of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed type. The automaton is fully discrete, i.e., space, time and number of individuals are discrete variables. The automaton can be applied to study spread of epidemics in both human and animal populations. We investigate effects of spatial inhomogeneities in initial distribution of infected and vaccinated populations on the dynamics of epidemic of SIR type. We discuss vaccination strategies which differ only in spatial distribution of vaccinated individuals. Also, we derive an approximate, mean-field type description of the automaton, and discuss differences between the mean-field dynamics and the results ofLGCA simulation.

  2. Fired Models of Air-gun Source and Its Application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Luo Guichun; Ge Hongkui; Wang Baoshan; Hu Ping; Mu Hongwang; Chen Yong

    2008-01-01

    Air-gun is an important active seismic source. With the development of the theory about air-gun array, the technique for air-gun array design becomes mature and is widely used in petroleum exploration and geophysics. In order to adapt it to different research domains,different combination and fired models are needed. At the present time, there are two firedmodels of air-gun source, namely, reinforced initial pulse and reinforced first bubble pulse.The fired time, space between single guns, frequency and resolution of the two models are different. This comparison can supply the basis for its extensive application.

  3. Hdr reactor containment fire modeling with Br12

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rockett, J.A.; Keski-Rahkonen, O.; Heikkilae, L.

    1992-01-01

    Fire tests at the German test reactor, HDR, were simulated using a Japanese zone model code, BRI2. Eight and ten room models of the containment building were developed. Critical phenomena occurring during simulation were explored. BRI2 can be used for this type of work but care must be exercised where a side wind increases entrainment by the fire plume. Horizontal vents were described by effective vertical vents. The effect of location of the vent to the ambient was found critical during severely oxygen limited burning. (Copyright (c) Valtion teknillinen tutkimuskeskus (VTT) 1992.)

  4. InterSpread Plus: a spatial and stochastic simulation model of disease in animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, M A; Sanson, R L; Stern, M W; O'Leary, B D; Sujau, M; Moles-Benfell, N; Morris, R S

    2013-04-01

    We describe the spatially explicit, stochastic simulation model of disease spread, InterSpread Plus, in terms of its epidemiological framework, operation, and mode of use. The input data required by the model, the method for simulating contact and infection spread, and methods for simulating disease control measures are described. Data and parameters that are essential for disease simulation modelling using InterSpread Plus are distinguished from those that are non-essential, and it is suggested that a rational approach to simulating disease epidemics using this tool is to start with core data and parameters, adding additional layers of complexity if and when the specific requirements of the simulation exercise require it. We recommend that simulation models of disease are best developed as part of epidemic contingency planning so decision makers are familiar with model outputs and assumptions and are well-positioned to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses to make informed decisions in times of crisis.

  5. Fire severity estimated from remote sensing data to evaluate the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire-Environment (CAWFE) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliva, P.; Coen, J.; Schroeder, W.

    2013-12-01

    Fire severity defined as the degree of damage originated from fire on soils and vegetation immediately after the fire, is affected by weather conditions (i.e. wind, air humidity), terrain characteristics (i.e. slope, aspect) and fuel properties (i.e. tree density, fuel moisture content). In this study we evaluated the relationships between fire severity estimated from Earth Observing Advance Land Imager (EO-ALI) images and the heat fluxes produced by the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire-Environment (CAWFE) model (Coen 2013). We present the results for a large fire occurred in New Mexico in June 2012 which burned 44,330 acres. The EO-ALI sensor (30 m spatial resolution) has nine spectral bands, six of them were designed to mimic Landsat bands and the three additional bands cover 443, 867.5 and 1250 nm. We used a physically-based approach to estimate fire severity developed by De Santis et al. (2009). This method classifies the satellite image into Geophysical Composite burned index (GeoCBI) values, which represent the fire severity within the fire-affected area, using radiative transfer model simulated spectra as reference. This method has been used to characterize fire severity levels using Landsat images and validated with field data (R2 > 0.85). Based on those results we expected a better performance of EO-ALI images due to its improved spectral resolution. On the other hand, CAWFE is composed of two parts: a numerical weather prediction model and a fire behavior module that represents the growth of a wildland fire in response to factors such as wind, terrain, and fuels, and includes the fire's impact on the atmosphere. To perform the evaluation we selected a stratified random sample by fire severity level. The values of maximum heat flux (sensible, latent), and total heat flux showed a higher correlation with the higher levels of fire severity (GeoCBI: 2.8-3) than with the medium levels of fire severity (GeoCBI: 2.3-2.8). However, the total heat flux proved to

  6. Spreading and wandering of Gaussian-Schell model laser beams in an anisotropic turbulent ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yuqian; Zhang, Yixin; Zhu, Yun; Hu, Zhengda

    2016-09-01

    The effect of anisotropic turbulence on the spreading and wandering of Gaussian-Schell model (GSM) laser beams propagating in an ocean is studied. The long-term spreading of a GSM beam propagating through the paraxial channel of a turbulent ocean is also developed. Expressions of random wander for such laser beams are derived in an anisotropic turbulent ocean based on the extended Huygens-Fresnel principle. We investigate the influence of parameters in a turbulent ocean on the beam wander and spreading. Our results indicate that beam spreading and random beam wandering are smaller without considering the anisotropy of turbulence in the oceanic channel. Salinity fluctuation has a greater contribution to both the beam spreading and beam wander than that of temperature fluctuations in a turbulent ocean. Our results could be helpful for designing a free-space optical wireless communication system in an oceanic environment.

  7. Empirical testing of alternative price spread models in the South African maize market

    OpenAIRE

    Faminow, Merle D.; Laubscher, J. M.

    1991-01-01

    Reduced-form price spread models have been recently utilized by Wohlgenant and Mullen, and Thompson and Lyon to evaluate the economic factors affecting the marketing margins for agricultural products. Drawing on Gardner, Heien, Buse and Brandow, Waugh, Tomek and Robinson, and others they specify alternative retail-farm price spread models and attempt to determine which best fit the data in the context of underlying theoretical rationale. This paper continues in the spirit of Wohlgenant and Mu...

  8. Reaction-to-Fire Properties and Fire Spread Properties of Metal-Skinned Expanded Polystyrene Foam Sandwich Panel%金属面EPS泡沫夹芯板的对火反应特性和火蔓延特性

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尤飞; 胡源

    2012-01-01

    利用3种强度汽油火源引燃金属面可发性聚苯乙烯泡沫夹芯板(EPS彩钢板),分别采用ISO9705房屋/墙角试验装置和热电偶束测定了不同处理方式下的板材对火反应特性和火蔓延特性.结果发现,3种强度火源下封边加固板材峰值热释放速率为未封边板材的0.1倍、0.5倍和0.8倍,最高温度范围分别为35~ 249℃、61~820℃和50~527℃,水平方向0.1 ~0.3m距离内最高平均蔓延速率分别为0.09 ~2 cn/s、1.4 ~ 10 cm/s和4.4~10 cm/s,火源功率增大可使达到同—温度的传播速率最高增大100倍,同一时刻水平和垂直方向上不同测点温度呈现一阶指数衰减的分布规律.采用槽铝和白铁皮覆盖夹芯板面板边缘处并均匀使用铆钉加固后,夹芯板整体燃烧性能被有效抑制,对外墙保温板材的应用方式具有积极借鉴意义.%Gasoline pool fires with three fire powers were used to ignite EPS panels treated with and without edge sealing and reinforcement. The ISO9705 full-scale room/corner test apparatus and thermocouple trees were adopted to measure the reaction-to-fire properties and fire spread properties. The results show that, under three fire powers, the peak heat release rate values of edge-sealed and incision-strengthened panels are 0.1, 0.5 and 0.8 times those of unsealed panels, the maximum temperatures lie within the range of 35?49?, 61?20 ? and 50?27 ?, and the maximum average spread rates in 0.1?.3 m horizontal distances lie within the range of 0.09? cm/s, 1.4?0 cm/s and 4.4?0 cm/s, respectively. As fire power increases, the spread rate reaching the same temperature at various measuring points can increase as high as 100 times. The temperatures at various horizontal and vertical points at the same moment distribute as the first order decay exponent. All the data indicate that the overall burning properties are effectively restrained when EPS panels are wrapped peripherally with aluminium slots

  9. Analysis of initial cell spreading using mechanistic contact formulations for a deformable cell model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Odenthal

    Full Text Available Adhesion governs to a large extent the mechanical interaction between a cell and its microenvironment. As initial cell spreading is purely adhesion driven, understanding this phenomenon leads to profound insight in both cell adhesion and cell-substrate interaction. It has been found that across a wide variety of cell types, initial spreading behavior universally follows the same power laws. The simplest cell type providing this scaling of the radius of the spreading area with time are modified red blood cells (RBCs, whose elastic responses are well characterized. Using a mechanistic description of the contact interaction between a cell and its substrate in combination with a deformable RBC model, we are now able to investigate in detail the mechanisms behind this universal power law. The presented model suggests that the initial slope of the spreading curve with time results from a purely geometrical effect facilitated mainly by dissipation upon contact. Later on, the spreading rate decreases due to increasing tension and dissipation in the cell's cortex as the cell spreads more and more. To reproduce this observed initial spreading, no irreversible deformations are required. Since the model created in this effort is extensible to more complex cell types and can cope with arbitrarily shaped, smooth mechanical microenvironments of the cells, it can be useful for a wide range of investigations where forces at the cell boundary play a decisive role.

  10. Measurement strategy and analytic model to determine firing pin force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesenciuc, Ioan; Suciu, Cornel

    2016-12-01

    As illustrated in literature, ballistics is a branch of theoretical mechanics, which studies the construction and working principles of firearms and ammunition, their effects, as well as the motions of projectiles and bullets1. Criminalistics identification, as part of judiciary identification represents an activity aimed at finding common traits of different objects, objectives, phenomena and beings, but more importantly, traits that differentiate each of them from similar ones2-4. In judicial ballistics, in the case of rifled firearms it is relatively simple for experts to identify the used weapon from traces left on the projectile, as the rifling of the barrel leaves imprints on the bullet, which remain approximately identical even after the respective weapon is fired 100 times with the same barrel. However, in the case of smoothbore firearms, their identification becomes much more complicated. As the firing cap suffers alterations from being hit by the firing pin, determination of the force generated during impact creates the premises for determining the type of firearm used to shoot the respective cartridge. The present paper proposes a simple impact model that can be used to evaluate the force generated by the firing pin during its impact with the firing cap. The present research clearly showed that each rifle, by the combination of the three investigated parameters (impact force maximum value, its variation diagram, and impact time) leave a unique trace. Application of such a method in ballistics can create the perspectives for formulating clear conclusions that eliminate possible judicial errors in this field.

  11. Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejian Lai

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The gravity model is often used in predicting the spread of influenza. We use the data of influenza A (H1N1 to check the model’s performance and validation, in order to determine the scope of its application. In this article, we proposed to model the pattern of global spread of the virus via a few important socio-economic indicators. We applied the epidemic gravity model for modelling the virus spread globally through the estimation of parameters of a generalized linear model. We compiled the daily confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1 in each country as reported to the WHO and each state in the USA, and established the model to describe the relationship between the confirmed cases and socio-economic factors such as population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP, and the distance between the countries/states and the country where the first confirmed case was reported (i.e., Mexico. The covariates we selected for the model were all statistically significantly associated with the global spread of influenza A (H1N1. However, within the USA, the distance and GDP were not significantly associated with the number of confirmed cases. The combination of the gravity model and generalized linear model provided a quick assessment of pandemic spread globally. The gravity model is valid if the spread period is long enough for estimating the model parameters. Meanwhile, the distance between donor and recipient communities has a good gradient. Besides, the spread should be at the early stage if a single source is taking into account.

  12. Rumor spreading model considering the activity of spreaders in the homogeneous network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang'an; Wang, Li; Song, Naixiang; Ma, Chenyang; He, Bing

    2017-02-01

    There are some similarities between the rumor spreading and the infectious disease transmission. In this paper, we investigate rumor spreading dynamics with the activity of spreaders based on compartment model in the homogeneous network. Different from previous studies, each spreader individual in network rotates between high active and low active state according to certain probabilities. We introduce a dynamic model for the rumor spreading called I2SR, in which we consider the activity of nodes and divide spreaders into spreaders with the high rate of active state and the low rate of active spreaders. Then, the locally asymptotic stability of equilibrium is established by using Routh-Hurwitz criteria. The global stability of internal equilibrium of model is proved based on Lasalle's invariance principle. Finally, numerical simulations are carried to illustrate the impact of different parameters on the rumor spreading.

  13. Combining fire and erosion modeling to target forest management activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. Elliot; Mary Ellen Miller; Nic Enstice

    2015-01-01

    Forests deliver a number of important ecosystem services including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing, quantity and quality of runoff are altered. A modeling study was carried out in a forested watershed in California to determine the risk of wildfire, and the potential post-fire sediment delivery from approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons...

  14. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfes in fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cozzani, V.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M. (Menso)

    2009-01-01

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fi

  15. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Landucci, G.; Molag, M.; Cozzani, V.

    2009-01-01

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fi

  16. Façade fire tests – measurements and modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson Johan

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In two recent papers [1, 2] the fire dynamics in a test rig for façade constructions according to the test method SP Brand 105 [3, 4] was investigated both experimentally and numerically. The experimental setup simulates a three-story apartment building (height 6.7 m, width 4 m and depth 1.6 m, with external wall-cladding and a “room fire” at the base. The numerical model was developed in the CFD program Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS [5] with analogous geometry and instrumentation. The general features of the fire test were well reproduced in the numerical model however temperatures close to the fire source could not be properly accounted for in the model. In this paper the bi-directional probe measurements are elaborated on and the test used in Ref. [1] is revisited using different heat release rates in the numerical model. The velocity of the hot gases along the façade was well reproduced by the simulations although some deviations were found.

  17. Simplified stochastic modeling of concrete spalling due to fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Straalen, IJ.J. van; Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Lentzen, S.S.K.; Vries, R. de

    2013-01-01

    Predicting spalling of concrete due to fire loading is undoubtedly a complex task to come across. Existing numerical models are dealing with the phenomena on different complexity levels of describing the physical/chemical processes and material behavior. But still they do not take the highly stochas

  18. Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...... are the most significant in each case. We apply the Sobol method, which is a quantitative method that gives the percentage of the total output variance that each parameter accounts for. The most important parameter is found to be the energy release rate that explains 92% of the uncertainty in the calculated...... results for the period before thermal penetration (tp) has occurred. The analysis is also done for all combinations of two parameters in order to find the combination with the largest effect. The Sobol total for pairs had the highest value for the combination of energy release rate and area of opening...

  19. FireMap: A Web Tool for Dynamic Data-Driven Predictive Wildfire Modeling Powered by the WIFIRE Cyberinfrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Block, J.; Crawl, D.; Artes, T.; Cowart, C.; de Callafon, R.; DeFanti, T.; Graham, J.; Smarr, L.; Srivas, T.; Altintas, I.

    2016-12-01

    research product of WIFIRE, developed in collaboration with a number of fire departments, the tool is operational in pilot form for providing big data-driven predictive fire spread modeling. Most recently, FireMap was used for situational awareness in the July 2016 Sand Fire by LA City and LA County Fire Departments.

  20. How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lluís Brotons

    Full Text Available Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain. We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape

  1. How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and

  2. How Fire History, Fire Suppression Practices and Climate Change Affect Wildfire Regimes in Mediterranean Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and

  3. From Conformational Spread to Allosteric and Cooperative models of E. coli flagellar motor

    CERN Document Server

    Pezzotta, Alberto; Celani, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Escherichia coli swims using flagella activated by rotary motors. The direction of rotation of the motors is indirectly regulated by the binding of a single messenger protein. The conformational spread model has been shown to accurately describe the equilibrium properties as well as the dynamics of the flagellar motor. In this paper we study this model from an analytic point of view. By exploiting the separation of timescales observed in experiments, we show how to reduce the conformational spread model to a coarse-grained, cooperative binding model. We show that this simplified model reproduces very well the dynamics of the motor switch.

  4. From conformational spread to allosteric and cooperative models of E. coli flagellar motor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzotta, A.; Adorisio, M.; Celani, A.

    2017-02-01

    Escherichia coli swims using flagella activated by rotary motors. The direction of rotation of the motors is indirectly regulated by the binding of a single messenger protein. The conformational spread model has been shown to accurately describe the equilibrium properties as well as the dynamics of the flagellar motor. In this paper we study this model from an analytic point of view. By exploiting the separation of timescales observed in experiments, we show how to reduce the conformational spread model to a coarse-grained, cooperative binding model. We show that this simplified model reproduces very well the dynamics of the motor switch.

  5. Agent-based model of information spread in social networks

    CERN Document Server

    Lande, D V; Berezin, B O

    2016-01-01

    We propose evolution rules of the multiagent network and determine statistical patterns in life cycle of agents - information messages. The main discussed statistical pattern is connected with the number of likes and reposts for a message. This distribution corresponds to Weibull distribution according to modeling results. We examine proposed model using the data from Twitter, an online social networking service.

  6. The impact of fires in the UK Met Office's Unified Model and the INFERNO interactive fire scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangeon, S.

    2015-12-01

    Forest fires are a key interaction between the land and the atmosphere. Yet this interaction is often omitted from Earth System Models. We will present the efforts carried out within the UK Met Office: for both its Unified Model (UM8.4) and land surface model (JULES). These efforts have focused on diagnosing fire occurrence and impact on composition. We will present the schemes used for diagnostic fire weather indices, and INFERNO (INteractive Fires and Emissions algoRithm for Natural envirOnments). INFERNO follows a reduced complexity approach and is intended for decadal to centennial scale climate simulations and assessment models for policy making. The scheme uses temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and soil moisture to simulate fuel flammability; once combined with ignitions, INFERNO diagnoses burnt area. Using JULES' carbon scheme, burnt area leads to fire emissions which are inputs to the model's chemistry and aerosol scheme (UKCA). We will show the coupled model performance in capturing burnt area and fire emissions and investigate the role of fires on atmospheric composition interannual variability (in particular CO, and aerosols).

  7. From a thin film model for passive suspensions towards the description of osmotic biofilm spreading

    CERN Document Server

    Trinschek, Sarah; Thiele, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    Biofilms are ubiquitous macro-colonies of bacteria that develop at various interfaces (solid-liquid, solid-gas or liquid-gas). The formation of biofilms starts with the attachment of individual bacteria to an interface, where they proliferate and produce a slimy polymeric matrix - two processes that result in colony growth and spreading. Recent experiments on the growth of biofilms on agar substrates under air have shown that for certain bacterial strains, the production of the extracellular matrix and the resulting osmotic influx of nutrient-rich water from the agar into the biofilm are more crucial for the spreading behaviour of a biofilm than the motility of individual bacteria. We present a model which describes the biofilm evolution and the advancing biofilm edge for this spreading mechanism. The model is based on a gradient dynamics formulation for thin films of biologically passive liquid mixtures and suspensions, supplemented by bioactive processes which play a decisive role in the osmotic spreading o...

  8. Global stability of a two-mediums rumor spreading model with media coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang'an; Wang, Li; Song, Guoxiang

    2017-09-01

    Rumor spreading is a typical form of social communication and plays a significant role in social life, and media coverage has a great influence on the spread of rumor. In this paper, we present a new model with two media coverage to investigate the impact of the different mediums on rumor spreading. Then, we calculate the equilibria of the model and construct the reproduction number ℜ0. And we prove the global asymptotic stability of equilibria by using Lyapunov functions. Finally, we can conclude that the transition rate of the ignorants between two mediums has a direct effect on the scale of spreaders, and different media coverage has significant effects on the dynamics behaviors of rumor spreading.

  9. Characterizing super-spreading in microblog: An epidemic-based information propagation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Wang, Bai; Wu, Bin; Shang, Suiming; Zhang, Yunlei; Shi, Chuan

    2016-12-01

    As the microblogging services are becoming more prosperous in everyday life for users on Online Social Networks (OSNs), it is more favorable for hot topics and breaking news to gain more attraction very soon than ever before, which are so-called "super-spreading events". In the information diffusion process of these super-spreading events, messages are passed on from one user to another and numerous individuals are influenced by a relatively small portion of users, a.k.a. super-spreaders. Acquiring an awareness of super-spreading phenomena and an understanding of patterns of wide-ranged information propagations benefits several social media data mining tasks, such as hot topic detection, predictions of information propagation, harmful information monitoring and intervention. Taking into account that super-spreading in both information diffusion and spread of a contagious disease are analogous, in this study, we build a parameterized model, the SAIR model, based on well-known epidemic models to characterize super-spreading phenomenon in tweet information propagation accompanied with super-spreaders. For the purpose of modeling information diffusion, empirical observations on a real-world Weibo dataset are statistically carried out. Both the steady-state analysis on the equilibrium and the validation on real-world Weibo dataset of the proposed model are conducted. The case study that validates the proposed model shows that the SAIR model is much more promising than the conventional SIR model in characterizing a super-spreading event of information propagation. In addition, numerical simulations are carried out and discussed to discover how sensitively the parameters affect the information propagation process.

  10. Linking Satellite-Derived Fire Counts to Satellite-Derived Weather Data in Fire Prediction Models to Forecast Extreme Fires in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westberg, D. J.; Soja, A. J.; Stackhouse, P. W.

    2009-12-01

    Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under climate change scenarios. Therefore to predict fire weather and ecosystem change, we must understand the factors that influence fire regimes and at what scale these are viable. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), developed by the Canadian Forestry Service, is used for this comparison, and it is calculated using local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. The FWI assesses daily forest fire burning potential. Large-scale FWI are calculated at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) using NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) large-scale reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data. The GEOS-4 reanalysis weather data are 3-hourly interpolated to 1-hourly data at a 1ox1o resolution and the GPCP precipitation data are also at 1ox1o resolution. In previous work focusing on the fire season in Siberia in 1999 and 2002, we have shown the combination of GEOS-4 weather data and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data compares well to ground-based weather data when used as inputs for FWI calculation. The density and accuracy of Siberian surface station data can be limited, which leads to results that are not representative of the spatial reality. GEOS-4/GPCP-dervied FWI can serve to spatially enhance current and historic FWI, because these data are spatially and temporally consistency. The surface station and model reanalysis derived fire weather indices compared well spatially, temporally and quantitatively, and increased fire activity compares well with increasing FWI ratings. To continue our previous work, we statistically compare satellite-derived fire counts to FWI categories at

  11. Mathematical Imaging and Modeling of Cortical Spreading Depression and Wound Healing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-05

    phase diagram that maps out when a retinal detachment is unstable, or is stable and will likely heal . We have begun to generalize this problem in two...Spreading Depression and W mmd Healing Sb. GRANT NUMBER Sc. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 611102 6. AUTHORS Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Tom Chou Se. TASK NUMBER...Spreading Depression and Wound Healing ." The research conducted under this grant represents advances made in image analysis, front tracking, modeling

  12. Spreading and vanishing in the diffusive prey-predator model with a free boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mingxin

    2015-06-01

    This paper deals with the diffusive Lotka-Volterra type prey-predator model with a free boundary over a one dimensional habitat. This problem may be used to describe the interaction between indigenous species and invasive species and the spreading of such two species, with the free boundary representing the expanding front. Our main purpose is to study the spreading and vanishing phenomena and long time behaviors of prey and predator.

  13. Modelling Spread of Oncolytic Viruses in Heterogeneous Cell Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Michael; Dobrovolny, Hana

    2014-03-01

    One of the most promising areas in current cancer research and treatment is the use of viruses to attack cancer cells. A number of oncolytic viruses have been identified to date that possess the ability to destroy or neutralize cancer cells while inflicting minimal damage upon healthy cells. Formulation of predictive models that correctly describe the evolution of infected tumor systems is critical to the successful application of oncolytic virus therapy. A number of different models have been proposed for analysis of the oncolytic virus-infected tumor system, with approaches ranging from traditional coupled differential equations such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey models, to contemporary modeling frameworks based on neural networks and cellular automata. Existing models are focused on tumor cells and the effects of virus infection, and offer the potential for improvement by including effects upon normal cells. We have recently extended the traditional framework to a 2-cell model addressing the full cellular system including tumor cells, normal cells, and the impacts of viral infection upon both populations. Analysis of the new framework reveals complex interaction between the populations and potential inability to simultaneously eliminate the virus and tumor populations.

  14. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinet, Christelle; Kehlenbeck, Hella; Kriticos, Darren J; Baker, Richard H A; Battisti, Andrea; Brunel, Sarah; Dupin, Maxime; Eyre, Dominic; Faccoli, Massimo; Ilieva, Zhenya; Kenis, Marc; Knight, Jon; Reynaud, Philippe; Yart, Annie; van der Werf, Wopke

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  15. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christelle Robinet

    Full Text Available Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens. Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  16. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels;

    2003-01-01

    A model for a flue gas boiler covering the flue gas and the water-/steam side has been formulated. The model has been formulated as a number of sub models that are merged into an overall model for the complete boiler. Sub models have been defined for the furnace, the convection zone (split in 2......: a zone submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic-Equation system (DAE). Subsequently Mat......Lab/Simulink has been applied for carrying out the simulations. To be able to verify the simulated results experiments has been carried out on a full scale boiler plant....

  17. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kim; Karstensen, Claus; Condra, Thomas Joseph;

    2003-01-01

    A model for a ue gas boiler covering the ue gas and the water-/steam side has been formulated. The model has been formulated as a number of sub models that are merged into an overall model for the complete boiler. Sub models have been dened for the furnace, the convection zone (split in 2: a zone...... submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic- Equation system (DAE). Subsequently MatLab/Simulink has...... been applied for carrying out the simulations. To be able to verify the simulated results an experiments has been carried out on a full scale boiler plant....

  18. Efficient algorithms for wildland fire simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondratenko, Volodymyr Y.

    In this dissertation, we develop the multiple-source shortest path algorithms and examine their application importance in real world problems, such as wildfire modeling. The theoretical basis and its implementation in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the fire spread code SFIRE (WRF-SFIRE model) are described. We present a data assimilation method that gives the fire spread model the ability to start the fire simulation from an observed fire perimeter instead of an ignition point. While the model is running, the fire state in the model changes in accordance with the new arriving data by data assimilation. As the fire state changes, the atmospheric state (which is strongly effected by heat flux) does not stay consistent with the fire state. The main difficulty of this methodology occurs in coupled fire-atmosphere models, because once the fire state is modified to match a given starting perimeter, the atmospheric circulation is no longer in sync with it. One of the possible solutions to this problem is a formation of the artificial time of ignition history from an earlier fire state, which is later used to replay the fire progression to the new perimeter with the proper heat fluxes fed into the atmosphere, so that the fire induced circulation is established. In this work, we develop efficient algorithms that start from the fire arrival times given at the set of points (called a perimeter) and create the artificial fire time of ignition and fire spread rate history. Different algorithms were developed in order to suit possible demands of the user, such as implementation in parallel programming, minimization of the required amount of iterations and memory use, and use of the rate of spread as a time dependent variable. For the algorithms that deal with the homogeneous rate of spread, it was proven that the values of fire arrival times they produce are optimal. It was also shown that starting from arbitrary initial state the algorithms have

  19. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  20. Jet fire consequence modeling for high-pressure gas pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coccorullo, Ivano; Russo, Paola

    2016-12-01

    A simple and reliable approach for sizing the hazard area potentially affected by a jet fire as consequence of the failure of high-pressure pipeline is proposed. A release rate model, taking pipeline operation properties and source release properties into account, is coupled with SLAB dispersion model and point source radiation model to calculate the hazard distance. The hazard distance is set beyond the distance at which a low chance of fatality can occur to people exposed and a wooden structure is not expected to burn due to radiation heat of jet fire. The comparison between three gases with different physico-chemical properties (i.e. natural gas, hydrogen, ethylene) is shown. The influence of pipeline operating parameters, such as: pressure, pipeline diameter and length, hole size, on the hazard area for the three gases is evaluated. Finally, a simple correlation is proposed for calculating the hazard distance as function of these parameters.

  1. On Fire regime modelling using satellite TM time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oddi, F.; . Ghermandi, L.; Lanorte, A.; Lasaponara, R.

    2009-04-01

    Wildfires can cause an environment deterioration modifying vegetation dynamics because they have the capacity of changing vegetation diversity and physiognomy. In semiarid regions, like the northwestern Patagonia, fire disturbance is also important because it could impact on the potential productivity of the ecosystem. There is reduction plant biomass and with that reducing the animal carrying capacity and/or the forest site quality with negative economics implications. Therefore knowledge of the fires regime in a region is of great importance to understand and predict the responses of vegetation and its possible effect on the regional economy. Studies of this type at a landscape level can be addressed using GIS tools. Satellite imagery allows detect burned areas and through a temporary analysis can be determined to fire regime and detecting changes at landscape scale. The study area of work is located on the east of the city of Bariloche including the San Ramon Ranch (22,000 ha) and its environs in the ecotone formed by the sub Antarctic forest and the patagonian steppe. We worked with multiespectral Landsat TM images and Landsat ETM + 30m spatial resolution obtained at different times. For the spatial analysis we used the software Erdas Imagine 9.0 and ArcView 3.3. A discrimination of vegetation types has made and was determined areas affected by fires in different years. We determined the level of change on vegetation induced by fire. In the future the use of high spatial resolution images combined with higher spectral resolution will allows distinguish burned areas with greater precision on study area. Also the use of digital terrain models derived from satellite imagery associated with climatic variables will allows model the relationship between them and the dynamics of vegetation.

  2. A Modeling Framework for Gossip-based Information Spread

    CERN Document Server

    Bakhshi, Rena; Fokkink, Wan; van Steen, Maarten

    2011-01-01

    We present an analytical framework for gossip protocols based on the pairwise information exchange between interacting nodes. This framework allows for studying the impact of protocol parameters on the performance of the protocol. Previously, gossip-based information dissemination protocols have been analyzed under the assumption of perfect, lossless communication channels. We extend our framework for the analysis of networks with lossy channels. We show how the presence of message loss, coupled with specific topology configurations,impacts the expected behavior of the protocol. We validate the obtained models against simulations for two protocols.

  3. Spatial distribution of emissions to air – the SPREAD model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plejdrup, Marlene Schmidt; Gyldenkærne, Steen

    The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, completes the annual national emission inventories for greenhouse gases and air pollutants according to Denmark’s obligations under international conventions, e.g. the climate convention, UNFCCC and the convention on long...... to the requirements for reporting of gridded emissions to CLRTAP. Spatial emission data is e.g. used as input for air quality modelling, which again serves as input for assessment and evaluation of health effects. For these purposes distributions with higher spatial resolution have been requested. Previously...

  4. Modelling the spread of innovation in wild birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Thomas R; Montrey, Marcel; Aplin, Lucy M

    2017-06-01

    We apply three plausible algorithms in agent-based computer simulations to recent experiments on social learning in wild birds. Although some of the phenomena are simulated by all three learning algorithms, several manifestations of social conformity bias are simulated by only the approximate majority (AM) algorithm, which has roots in chemistry, molecular biology and theoretical computer science. The simulations generate testable predictions and provide several explanatory insights into the diffusion of innovation through a population. The AM algorithm's success raises the possibility of its usefulness in studying group dynamics more generally, in several different scientific domains. Our differential-equation model matches simulation results and provides mathematical insights into the dynamics of these algorithms. © 2017 The Author(s).

  5. The Morris-Lecar neuron model embeds a leaky integrate-and-fire model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; Greenwood, Priscilla

    2013-01-01

    We showthat the stochastic Morris–Lecar neuron, in a neighborhood of its stable point, can be approximated by a two-dimensional Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) modulation of a constant circular motion. The associated radial OU process is an example of a leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) model prior to firing...

  6. First-order fire effects models for land Management: Overview and issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; Matthew B. Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    We give an overview of the science application process at work in supporting fire management. First-order fire effects models, such as those discussed in accompanying papers, are the building blocks of software systems designed for application to landscapes over time scales from days to centuries. Fire effects may be modeled using empirical, rule based, or process...

  7. Position and orientation estimation of fixed dipole emitters using an effective Hermite point spread function model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stallinga, S.; Rieger, B.

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a method for determining the position and orientation of fixed dipole emitters based on a combination of polarimetry and spot shape detection. A key element is an effective Point Spread Function model based on Hermite functions. The model offers a good description of the shape variation

  8. A Comparison of Dynamics in Two Models for the Spread of a Vector-Borne Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Sumner, T.; Enøe, Claes;

    2016-01-01

    of between-herd spread, one using an explicit representation of vector dispersal, the other a transmission kernel. Here, we compare model predictions for the dynamics of bluetongue in the UK, based on the 2007 incursion and vaccination rollout in 2008. We demonstrate how an agent-based model shows greater...

  9. Spreading Speed for a Periodic Reaction-diffusion Model with Nonmonotone Birth Function

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Ye-hui; WENG Pei-xuan

    2012-01-01

    A reaction-diffusion model for a single spccies with age structure and nonlocal reaction for periodic time t is derived.Some results about the model with monotone birth function are firstly introduced,and then by constructing two auxiliary equations and squeezing method,the spreading speed for the system with nonmonotone birth function is obtained.

  10. An agent based model for simulating the spread of sexually transmitted infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, Grant; Friesen, Marcia R; McLeod, Robert D

    2012-01-01

    This work uses agent-based modelling (ABM) to simulate sexually transmitted infection (STIs) spread within a population of 1000 agents over a 10-year period, as a preliminary investigation of the suitability of ABM methodology to simulate STI spread. The work contrasts compartmentalized mathematical models that fail to account for individual agents, and ABMs commonly applied to simulate the spread of respiratory infections. The model was developed in C++ using the Boost 1.47.0 libraries for the normal distribution and OpenGL for visualization. Sixteen agent parameters interact individually and in combination to govern agent profiles and behaviours relative to infection probabilities. The simulation results provide qualitative comparisons of STI mitigation strategies, including the impact of condom use, promiscuity, the form of the friend network, and mandatory STI testing. Individual and population-wide impacts were explored, with individual risk being impacted much more dramatically by population-level behaviour changes as compared to individual behaviour changes.

  11. The effect of infected external computers on the spread of viruses: A compartment modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lu-Xing; Yang, Xiaofan

    2013-12-01

    Inevitably, there exist infected computers outside of the Internet. This paper aims to understand how infected external computers affect the spread of computer viruses. For that purpose, a new virus-antivirus spreading model, which takes into account the effect of infected/immune external computers, is established. A systematic study shows that, unlike most previous models, the proposed model admits no virus-free equilibrium and admits a globally asymptotically stable viral equilibrium. This result implies that it would be practically impossible to eradicate viruses on the Internet. As a result, inhibiting the virus prevalence to below an acceptable level would be the next best thing. A theoretical study reveals the effect of different parameters on the steady virus prevalence. On this basis, a number of suggestions are made so as to contain virus spreading.

  12. Discrete-time dynamic network model for the spread of susceptible-infective-recovered diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauhan, Sanjeev Kumar

    2017-07-01

    We propose a discrete-time dynamic network model describing the spread of susceptible-infective-recovered diseases in a population. We consider the case in which the nodes in the network change their links due to social mixing dynamics as well as in response to the disease. The model shows the behavior that, as we increase social mixing, disease spread is inhibited in certain cases, while in other cases it is enhanced. We also extend this dynamic network model to take into account the case of hidden infection. Here we find that, as expected, the disease spreads more readily if there is a time period after contracting the disease during which an individual is infective but is not known to have the disease.

  13. Considerations in Scale-Modeling of Large Urban Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-11-15

    is inconsequential and that all molecular transport processes are unimportant). The nondimensional parameters to be preserved between the model and...fuel bed. Parker, Corlett and B. T. Lee [!3] also come to a similar conclusion based * on the following two points. First, in large fires, molecular ...to USDA Forest Service, Prepared by Instituto Nacional "de Tecnica Aeroespacial, Madrid, Spain, (May, 1967). "" 57. S.L. Lee and G.M. Hellman

  14. Improving the representation of fire disturbance in dynamic vegetation models by assimilating satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantzas, E. P.; Quegan, S.; Lomas, M.

    2015-03-01

    Fire provides an impulsive and stochastic pathway for carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to enter the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being of similar magnitude to Net Ecosystem Exchange in many biomes, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in General Circulation Models contain poor representations of fire behaviour and dynamics such as propagation and distribution of fire sizes. A model-independent methodology is developed which addresses this issue. Its focus is on the Arctic where fire is linked to permafrost dynamics and on occasion can release great amounts of carbon from carbon-rich organic soils. Connected Component Labeling is used to identify individual fire events across Canada and Russia from daily, low-resolution burned area satellite products, and the results are validated against historical data. This allows the creation of a fire database holding information on area burned and temporal evolution of fires in space and time. A method of assimilating the statistical distribution of fire area into a DVM whilst maintaining its Fire Return Interval is then described. The algorithm imposes a regional scale spatially dependent fire regime on a sub-scale spatially independent model (point model); the fire regime is described by large scale statistical distributions of fire intensity and spatial extent, and the temporal dynamics (fire return intervals) are determined locally. This permits DVMs to estimate many aspects of post-fire dynamics that cannot occur under their current representations of fire, as is illustrated by considering the evolution of land cover, biomass and Net Ecosystem Exchange after a fire.

  15. Improving the representation of fire disturbance in dynamic vegetation models by assimilating satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. P. Kantzas

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fire provides an impulsive and stochastic pathway for carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to enter the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being of similar magnitude to Net Ecosystem Exchange in many biomes, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs embedded in General Circulation Models contain poor representations of fire behaviour and dynamics such as propagation and distribution of fire sizes. A model-independent methodology is developed which addresses this issue. Its focus is on the Arctic where fire is linked to permafrost dynamics and on occasion can release great amounts of carbon from carbon-rich organic soils. Connected Component Labeling is used to identify individual fire events across Canada and Russia from daily, low-resolution burned area satellite products, and the results are validated against historical data. This allows the creation of a fire database holding information on area burned and temporal evolution of fires in space and time. A method of assimilating the statistical distribution of fire area into a DVM whilst maintaining its Fire Return Interval is then described. The algorithm imposes a regional scale spatially dependent fire regime on a sub-scale spatially independent model (point model; the fire regime is described by large scale statistical distributions of fire intensity and spatial extent, and the temporal dynamics (fire return intervals are determined locally. This permits DVMs to estimate many aspects of post-fire dynamics that cannot occur under their current representations of fire, as is illustrated by considering the evolution of land cover, biomass and Net Ecosystem Exchange after a fire.

  16. Identification of fire modeling issues based on an analysis of real events from the OECD FIRE database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hermann, Dominik [Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI, Brugg (Switzerland)

    2017-03-15

    Precursor analysis is widely used in the nuclear industry to judge the significance of events relevant to safety. However, in case of events that may damage equipment through effects that are not ordinary functional dependencies, the analysis may not always fully appreciate the potential for further evolution of the event. For fires, which are one class of such events, this paper discusses modelling challenges that need to be overcome when performing a probabilistic precursor analysis. The events used to analyze are selected from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Fire Incidents Records Exchange (FIRE) Database.

  17. Modeling Anthropogenic Fire Occurrence in the Boreal Forest of China Using Logistic Regression and Random Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Futao Guo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Frequent and intense anthropogenic fires present meaningful challenges to forest management in the boreal forest of China. Understanding the underlying drivers of human-caused fire occurrence is crucial for making effective and scientifically-based forest fire management plans. In this study, we applied logistic regression (LR and Random Forests (RF to identify important biophysical and anthropogenic factors that help to explain the likelihood of anthropogenic fires in the Chinese boreal forest. Results showed that the anthropogenic fires were more likely to occur at areas close to railways and were significantly influenced by forest types. In addition, distance to settlement and distance to road were identified as important predictors for anthropogenic fire occurrence. The model comparison indicated that RF had greater ability than LR to predict forest fires caused by human activity in the Chinese boreal forest. High fire risk zones in the study area were identified based on RF, where we recommend increasing allocation of fire management resources.

  18. [Training and development of the nursing staff: a model of spread sheet cost].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerico, Marli de Carvalho; Castilho, Valéria

    2004-09-01

    This paper presents a model of spread sheet cost for training and development programs to the nursing staff in a hospital organization. Significant items of the total cost have been considered in relation to its elaboration and proper functioning. This model is divided into four parts: Item 1--data related to the training programs; Item 2--direct costs of these programs; Item 3--indirect costs (Continuum Educational Center structure), and Item 4--cost amount. The use of spread sheet cost may provide knowledge and managementfor the nurses and nurse managers. However, the related costs should be reviewed according to each service.

  19. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  20. Lateral spreading processes in mountain ranges: Insights from an analogue modelling experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozzano, Francesca; Bretschneider, Alberto; Esposito, C.; Martino, Salvatore; Prestininzi, Alberto; Scarascia Mugnozza, Gabriele

    2013-10-01

    The results of a study on gravitational induced lateral spreading phenomena are here reported. The lateral spreading processes are widely represented in the Italian Apennines due to the widespread overlapping of stiff rock masses on more ductile ones. The stress-strain evolution of these processes was investigated by combining an analogical and a numerical modelling approach. The analogue modelling reproduced the evolution of a carbonate ridge thrust over a clayey flysch with reference to the case-study of Mt. Roccatagliata-Mt. Sant'Angelo ridge. The rock mass juxtaposition was reproduced in a laboratory experiment by overlapping a brittle concrete on a viscous ductile material; these materials were selected with rheological properties, physically scaled with respect to the natural rock mass prototypes. The spreading phenomenon was modelled by opening horizontal panels in sequential stages and monitoring the resulting stresses within the ductile material during the experiment. A stress-strain modelling was also performed by an FDM numerical solution; this modelling replied the laboratory experiment by testing the use of different rheological constitutive laws. The resulting stresses and morphological evolutions are comparable with the analogical laboratory experiment only if a time-dependent rheological behaviour is assumed for the ductile material. The results show that lateral spreading processes can be properly investigated by combining analogue and numerical modelling techniques which take into account the viscous-plastic behaviour of the used materials.

  1. A new analytical edge spread function fitting model for modulation transfer function measurement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tiecheng Li; Huajun Feng; Zhihai Xu

    2011-01-01

    @@ We propose a new analytical edge spread function (ESF) fitting model to measure the modulation transfer function (MTF).The ESF data obtained from a slanted-edge image are fitted to our model through the non-linear least squares (NLLSQ) method.The differentiation of the ESF yields the line spread function (LSF), the Fourier transform of which gives the profile of two-dimensional MTF.Compared with the previous methods, the MTF estimate determined by our method conforms more closely to the reference.A practical application of our MTF measurement in degraded image restoration also validates the accuracy of our model.%We propose a new analytical edge spread function (ESF) fitting model to measure the modulation transfer function (MTF). The ESF data obtained from a slanted-edge image are fitted to our model through the non-linear least squares (NLLSQ) method. The differentiation of the ESF yields the line spread function (LSF), the Fourier transform of which gives the profile of two-dimensional MTF. Compared with the previous methods, the MTF estimate determined by our method conforms more closely to the reference. A practical application of our MTF measurement in degraded image restoration also validates the accuracy of our model.

  2. Average intensity and spreading of partially coherent model beams propagating in a turbulent biological tissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yuqian; Zhang, Yixin; Wang, Qiu; Hu, Zhengda

    2016-11-01

    For Gaussian beams with three different partially coherent models, including Gaussian-Schell model (GSM), Laguerre-Gaussian Schell-model (LGSM) and Bessel-Gaussian Schell-model (BGSM) beams propagating through a biological turbulent tissue, the expression of the spatial coherence radius of a spherical wave propagating in a turbulent biological tissue, and the average intensity and beam spreading for GSM, LGSM and BGSM beams are derived based on the fractal model of power spectrum of refractive-index variations in biological tissue. Effects of partially coherent model and parameters of biological turbulence on such beams are studied in numerical simulations. Our results reveal that the spreading of GSM beams is smaller than LGSM and BGSM beams on the same conditions, and the beam with larger source coherence width has smaller beam spreading than that with smaller coherence width. The results are useful for any applications involved light beam propagation through tissues, especially the cases where the average intensity and spreading properties of the light should be taken into account to evaluate the system performance and investigations in the structures of biological tissue.

  3. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landucci, Gabriele [CONPRICI - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Chimica Industriale e Scienza dei Materiali, Universita di Pisa, via Diotisalvi n.2, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Molag, Menso [Nederlandse Organisatie voor toegepast-natuurwetenschappelijk onderzoek TNO, Princetonlaan 6, 3584 CB Utrecht (Netherlands); Cozzani, Valerio, E-mail: valerio.cozzani@unibo.it [CONPRICI - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Mineraria e delle Tecnologie Ambientali, Alma Mater Studiorum - Universita di Bologna, Via Terracini 28 - 40131 Bologna (Italy)

    2009-12-15

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fire engulfment scenarios. The model was validated by experimental results. A specific analysis of the performance of four different reference coating materials was then carried out, also defining specific key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess design safety margins in near-miss simulations. The results confirmed the wide influence of coating application on the expected vessel time to failure due to fire engulfment. A quite different performance of the alternative coating materials was evidenced. General correlations were developed among the vessel time to failure and the effective coating thickness in full engulfment scenarios, providing a preliminary assessment of the coating thickness required to prevent tank rupture for a given time lapse. The KPIs defined allowed the assessment of the available safety margins in the reference scenarios analyzed and of the robustness of thermal protection design.

  4. Modeling the performance of coated LPG tanks engulfed in fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Cozzani, Valerio

    2009-12-15

    The improvement of passive fire protection of storage vessels is a key factor to enhance safety among the LPG distribution chain. A thermal and mechanical model based on finite elements simulations was developed to assess the behaviour of full size tanks used for LPG storage and transportation in fire engulfment scenarios. The model was validated by experimental results. A specific analysis of the performance of four different reference coating materials was then carried out, also defining specific key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess design safety margins in near-miss simulations. The results confirmed the wide influence of coating application on the expected vessel time to failure due to fire engulfment. A quite different performance of the alternative coating materials was evidenced. General correlations were developed among the vessel time to failure and the effective coating thickness in full engulfment scenarios, providing a preliminary assessment of the coating thickness required to prevent tank rupture for a given time lapse. The KPIs defined allowed the assessment of the available safety margins in the reference scenarios analyzed and of the robustness of thermal protection design.

  5. Disease spread models in wild and feral animal populations: application of artificial life models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, M P; Laffan, S W; Highfield, L D

    2011-08-01

    The role that wild and feral animal populations might play in the incursion and spread of important transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD), has received less attention than is warranted by the potential impacts. An artificial life model (Sirca) has been used to investigate this issue in studies based on spatially referenced data sets from southern Texas. An incursion of FMD in which either feral pig or deer populations were infected could result in between 698 and 1557 infected cattle and affect an area of between 166 km2 and 455 km2 after a 100-day period. Although outbreak size in deer populations can be predicted bythe size of the local deer population initially infected, the resulting outbreaks in feral pig populations are less predictable. Also, in the case of deer, the size of potential outbreaks might depend on the season when the incursion occurs. The impact of various mitigation strategies on disease spread has also been investigated. The approach used in the studies reviewed here explicitly incorporates the spatial distribution and relationships between animal populations, providing a new framework to explore potential impacts, costs, and control strategies.

  6. Bubble spreading during the boiling crisis: modelling and experimenting in microgravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolayev, V.; Beysens, D.; Garrabos, Y.; Lecoutre, C.; Chatain, D.

    2006-09-01

    Boiling is a very efficient way to transfer heat from a heater to the liquid carrier. We discuss the boiling crisis, a transition between two regimes of boiling: nucleate and film boiling. The boiling crisis results in a sharp decrease in the heat transfer rate, which can cause a major accident in industrial heat exchangers. In this communication, we present a physical model of the boiling crisis based on the vapor recoil effect. Under the action of the vapor recoil the gas bubbles begin to spread over the heater thus forming a germ for the vapor film. The vapor recoil force not only causes its spreading, it also creates a strong adhesion to the heater that prevents the bubble departure, thus favoring the further spreading. Near the liquid-gas critical point, the bubble growth is very slow and allows the kinetics of the bubble spreading to be observed. Since the surface tension is very small in this regime, only microgravity conditions can preserve a convex bubble shape. In the experiments both in the Mir space station and in the magnetic levitation facility, we directly observed an increase of the apparent contact angle and spreading of the dry spot under the bubble. Numerical simulations of the thermally controlled bubble growth show this vapor recoil effect too thus confirming our model of the boiling crisis.

  7. The spread model of food safety risk under the supply-demand disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jining; Chen, Tingqiang

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, based on the imbalance of the supply-demand relationship of food, we design a spreading model of food safety risk, which is about from food producers to consumers in the food supply chain. We use theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to describe the supply-demand relationship and government supervision behaviors' influence on the risk spread of food safety and the behaviors of the food producers and the food retailers. We also analyze the influence of the awareness of consumer rights protection and the level of legal protection of consumer rights on the risk spread of food safety. This model contributes to the explicit investigation of the influence relationship among supply-demand factors, the regulation behavioral choice of government, the behavioral choice of food supply chain members and food safety risk spread. And this paper provides a new viewpoint for considering food safety risk spread in the food supply chain, which has a great reference for food safety management.

  8. Short time spreading and wetting of offset printing liquids on model calcium carbonate coating structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivula, Hanna; Toivakka, Martti; Gane, Patrick

    2012-03-01

    Spreading of oils and water on porous and pre-saturated model carbonate coating structures was studied with high speed video imaging. The short-time data were complemented with long time absorption and wicking experiments. The results indicate a strong dependence between surface structural features of the pigment tablets and water spreading at short times, both in non-saturated and water pre-saturated cases, while the oil spreading is mainly dependent on the liquid properties. Sodium polyacrylate dispersant on pigment surfaces is shown to contribute to water spreading and absorption. On pre-saturated structures the liquid-liquid interactions are dominant and the majority of results support spreading according to the molecular kinetic model. The evidence supports the hypothesis of S. Rousu, P. Gane, and D. Eklund, ["Influence of coating pigment chemistry and morphology on the chromatographic separation of offset ink constituents," in The Science of Papermaking Transactions of the 12th Fundamental Research Symposium, FRC The Pulp & Paper Fundamental Research Society, Oxford, UK, 2001, p. 1115] that at long times the oils absorb into the porous structure at a rate proportional to the ratio of viscosity and surface tension, provided there is no sorptive action with the binder. A combination of nanosized pores and large surface area is useful for providing sufficient absorption capability for carbonate based coatings.

  9. Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

    2014-12-01

    The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

  10. Quantitative application of Monte Carlo simulation in Fire-PSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mangs, J.; Hostikka, S.; Korhonen, T. [Valtion Teknillinen Tutkimuskeskus, Espoo (Finland); Keski-Rahkonen, O.

    2007-05-15

    In a power plant a fire cell forms the basic subunit. Since the fire is initially located there, the full-scale time dependent fire simulation and estimation of target response must be performed within the fire cell. Conditional, time dependent damage probabilities in a fire cell can now be calculated for arbitrary targets (component or a subsystem) combining probabilistic (Monte Carlo) and deterministic simulation. For the latter a spectrum from simple correlations up to latest computational fluid dynamics models is available. Selection of the code is made according to the requirements form the target cell. Although calculations are numerically heavy, it is now economically possible and feasible to carry out quantitative fire-PSA for a complete plant iteratively with the main PSA. From real applications examples are shown on assessment of fire spread possibility in a relay room, and potential of fire spread on cables in a tunnel. (orig.)

  11. A Hierarchy of Linear Threshold Models for the Spread of Political Revolutions on Social Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Lang, John C

    2015-01-01

    We study a linear threshold agent-based model (ABM) for the spread of political revolutions on social networks using empirical network data. We propose new techniques for building a hierarchy of simplified ordinary differential equation (ODE) based models that aim to capture essential features of the ABM, including effects of the actual networks, and give insight in the parameter regime transitions of the ABM. We relate the ABM and the hierarchy of models to a population-level compartmental ODE model that we proposed previously for the spread of political revolutions [1], which is shown to be mathematically consistent with the proposed ABM and provides a way to analyze the global behaviour of the ABM. This consistency with the linear threshold ABM also provides further justification a posteriori for the compartmental model of [1]. Extending concepts from epidemiological modelling, we define a basic reproduction number $R_0$ for the linear threshold ABM and apply it to predict ABM behaviour on empirical networ...

  12. Analytical Modelling of the Spread of Disease in Confined and Crowded Spaces

    CERN Document Server

    Goscé, Lara; Johansson, Anders

    2013-01-01

    Since 1927, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The aim of this work is to analyse the implications that arise by taking crowd behaviour explicitly into account. Starting with a microscopic model of pedestrian movement in confined spaces, we show how both the rate of infection as well as the walking speed will depend on the local crowd density around an infected individual. The combined effect is that the rate of infection at a population scale will have an analytically tractable non-linear dependency on crowd density. As an illustrative and simple example, we will model the spread of Influenza in a simple corridor with uni-directional crowd flow and compare our new model with a state-of-the-art model, which will highlight the regime in which current models do not produce credible results.

  13. 高层建筑典型外墙保温材料火蔓延特性数值模拟研究%Simulation of Fire Spread of Typical External Wall Insulation Materials in High-rise Building

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    章涛林; 周晓冬; 雷杲; 汪文君; 龚俊辉; 杨立中

    2012-01-01

    有机保温材料被广泛应用于高层建筑外墙保温体系的同时,也可能增加高层建筑的火灾风险.本文通过计算机模拟,着重研究了保温材料之一的聚苯乙烯泡沫塑料(EPS)的火蔓延速率、失重速率及温度场分布等特性.研究结果发现:发生火灾后,外墙保温材料可以在很短的时间内自下而上蔓延至整个材料表面,并有表皮着火的现象.在火焰到达材料顶部之前,向上火蔓延占主导地位,材料中部区域明显燃烧脱落,火焰在材料两端上部继续燃烧,有向下加速蔓延的趋势;之后,火焰沿着材料中部内侧向下剧烈燃烧,材料呈V字型燃烧直至熄灭.在高层建筑外墙外保温材料火蔓延中,不同着火点情况下的燃烧速率随时间变化的趋势相似,且会形成两个波峰.%Organic insulation materials are widely used in the external wall insulation system of high-rise buildings, but it also increases the risk of external wall fire. This paper, based on computer simulation, focuses attention mainly on the fire spread rate, mass loss rate, temperature distribution and other characteristics of one of the insulation materials Expanded Polystyrene (EPS). The study found that after the ignition of the external insulation material, in a very short period of time, fire spreads to the entire surface from bottom up, and has a feature of skin burning. Upward fire spread dominates before it reached the top of the material. The central region of the material was remarkably burned off. While the upper ends of the material continued to burn, accelerating the trend of downwards spread, then fire spreads downwards intensely along the middle of inside material and materials burned into a V-shape until extinguished. The burning rate curve is similar under different ignition points as to the fire spread of external insulation materials in high-rise building, forming two peaks.

  14. Measurement of Fire Radiative Energy from Space and Implications for Fire-Disaster Monitoring and Smoke Emissions Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichoku, Charles

    2008-01-01

    Measurement of fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP) from satellite provides a vital mechanism for distinguishing different strengths of fires. Analysis of 1-km resolution fire data, acquired globally by the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites from 2000 to 2006, showed instantaneous FRP values ranging between 0.02 MW and 1866 MW, to which simple thresholds can be applied to categorize fires by strength, in a similar fashion as the strengths of earthquakes and hurricanes. Analysis of regional mean FRP per unit area of land (FRP flux) shows that at peak fire season in certain regions, fires can be responsible for up to 0.2 W/m2 at peak time of day. When considered as the active fire contribution to the direct surface radiative forcing (RF) in the different fire regions, this order of magnitude of FRF fluxes is non negligible. It has been determined experimentally that the amount of FRE released by a fire over the course of its duration is directly proportional to the amount of biomass consumed by it. Furthermore, at the satellite observation scale, the rate of release of FRE (i.e. FRP) is proportional to the rate of biomass consumption, and that of emission of smoke particulates and eventually also other smoke constituents. Therefore, current research efforts are geared toward deriving simple parameterizations that will facilitate direct input of FRP measurements in models, not only to improve the accuracy of burned-biomass and smoke emissions estimations, but also to reduce the hitherto practiced heavy reliance on multiple indirect parameters with indeterminate uncertainties.

  15. Developments in modelling of thermal radiation from pool and jet fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boot, H.

    2016-01-01

    In the past decades, the standard approach in the modelling of consequences of pool and jet fires would be to describe these fires as tilted cylindrical shaped radiating flame surfaces, having a specific SEP (Surface Emissive Power). Some fine tuning on pool fires has been done by Rew and Hulbert in

  16. Assessing accuracy of point fire intervals across landscapes with simulation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Robert E. Keane; Brigitte Dorner; Joseph Fall

    2007-01-01

    We assessed accuracy in point fire intervals using a simulation model that sampled four spatially explicit simulated fire histories. These histories varied in fire frequency and size and were simulated on a flat landscape with two forest types (dry versus mesic). We used three sampling designs (random, systematic grids, and stratified). We assessed the sensitivity of...

  17. A data model for route planning in the case of forest fires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Z.; Zlatanova, S.; Moreno, A.; Van Oosterom, P.J.M.; Toro, C.

    2013-01-01

    The ability to guide relief vehicles to safety and quickly pass through environments affected by fires is critical in fighting forest fires. In this paper, we focus on route determination in the case of forest fires, and propose a data model that supports finding paths among moving obstacles. This d

  18. Assessing the value of increased model resolution in forecasting fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanne Hoadley; Miriam Rorig; Ken Westrick; Larry Bradshaw; Sue Ferguson; Scott Goodrick; Paul Werth

    2003-01-01

    The fire season of 2000 was used as a case study to assess the value of increasing mesoscale model resolution for fire weather and fire danger forecasting. With a domain centered on Western Montana and Northern Idaho, MM5 simulations were run at 36, 12, and 4-km resolutions for a 30 day period at the height of the fire season. Verification analyses for meteorological...

  19. A branching model for the spread of infectious animal diseases in varying environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trapman, Pieter; Meester, R.; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper is concerned with a stochastic model, describing outbreaks of infectious diseases that have potentially great animal or human health consequences, and which can result in such severe economic losses that immediate sets of measures need to be taken to curb the spread. During an outbreak of

  20. How Crime Spreads Through Imitation in Social Networks: A Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punzo, Valentina

    In this chapter an agent-based model for investigating how crime spreads through social networks is presented. Some theoretical issues related to the sociological explanation of crime are tested through simulation. The agent-based simulation allows us to investigate the relative impact of some mechanisms of social influence on crime, within a set of controlled simulated experiments.

  1. Using the Gravity Model to Estimate the Spatial Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Marie Aerts

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

  2. Modeling the mechanics of cells in the cell-spreading process driven by traction forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yuqiang; Lai, King W. C.

    2016-04-01

    Mechanical properties of cells and their mechanical interaction with the extracellular environments are main factors influencing cellular function, thus indicating the progression of cells in different disease states. By considering the mechanical interactions between cell adhesion molecules and the extracellular environment, we developed a cell mechanical model that can characterize the mechanical changes in cells during cell spreading. A cell model was established that consisted of various main subcellular components, including cortical cytoskeleton, nuclear envelope, actin filaments, intermediate filaments, and microtubules. We demonstrated the structural changes in subcellular components and the changes in spreading areas during cell spreading driven by traction forces. The simulation of nanoindentation tests was conducted by integrating the indenting force to the cell model. The force-indentation curve of the cells at different spreading states was simulated, and the results showed that cell stiffness increased with increasing traction forces, which were consistent with the experimental results. The proposed cell mechanical model provides a strategy to investigate the mechanical interactions of cells with the extracellular environments through the adhesion molecules and to reveal the cell mechanical properties at the subcellular level as cells shift from the suspended state to the adherent state.

  3. A mechanistic model to describe the spread of phocid distemper virus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koeijer, A.A. de; Diekmann, O.; Reijnders, P.J.H.

    1995-01-01

    1. The 1988 epizootic among seals in N.W. Europe led to the death of more than half of the population. Several researchers have fitted data from the epidemic with the Kermack and McKendrick model for disease spread. 2. We argue that for animals living in herds or colonies, like seals, the mutual con

  4. Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, William J; Orzell, Steve L; Slocum, Matthew G

    2015-01-01

    Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of

  5. The spread model of food safety risk under the supply-demand disturbance

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Jining; Chen, Tingqiang

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, based on the imbalance of the supply-demand relationship of food, we design a spreading model of food safety risk, which is about from food producers to consumers in the food supply chain. We use theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to describe the supply-demand relationship and government supervision behaviors’ influence on the risk spread of food safety and the behaviors of the food producers and the food retailers. We also analyze the influence of the awareness of c...

  6. A reaction-diffusion system modeling the spread of resistance to an antimalarial drug.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacaer, Nicolas; Sokhna, Cheikh

    2005-04-01

    A mathematical model representing the difusion of resistance to an antimalarial drug is developed. Resistance can spread only when the basic reproduction number of the resistant parasites is bigger than the basic reproduction number of the sensitive parasites (which depends on the fraction of infected people treated with the antimalarial drug). Based on a linearization study and on numerical simulations, an expression for the speed at which resistance spreads is conjectured. It depends on the ratio of the two basic reproduction numbers, on a coefficient representing the difusion of mosquitoes, on the death rate of mosquitoes infected by resistant parasites, and on the recovery rate of nonimmune humans infected by resistant parasites.

  7. Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi

    2017-06-01

    Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEIIhR model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEIIhR model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEIIhR model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEIIhR model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEIIhR model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point (Se; Ee; Ie; Ihe; Re )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable.

  8. An interplay model for authorities' actions and rumor spreading in emergency event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang-an; Huang, Peiqing; Fang, Xing

    2011-10-01

    Rumor spreading influences how rational individuals assess risks and evaluate needs, especially, it affects authorities to make decisions in an emergency-affected environments. Conversely, authorities' response to emergency will induct public opinions as well. In this paper, we present a simple model to describe the interplay between rumor spreading and authorities' actions in emergency situation based on utility theory. By drawing from differential equations we found that it is possible to minimize negative social utility of rumor spreading in the control of situation. At the same time, authorities' proactive actions can improve rumor management in emergency situation and yield positive social utility. Finally, we outline strategies for authorities that can contribute to rumor management in an emergency event.

  9. Fire risk and air pollution assessment during the 2007 wildfire events in Greece using the COSMO-ART atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athanasopoulou, E.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Vogel, H.; Rieger, D.; Knote, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Vogel, B.; Karali, A.

    2012-04-01

    During 2007, Greece experienced an extreme summer and the worst natural hazard in its modern history. Soil dehydration, following a prolonged dry period in combination with hot temperatures and strong winds, yielded favorable conditions for the ignition and spread of wild fires that burnt approximately 200,000 ha of vegetated land (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009; Sifakis et al., 2011). The relationship between meteorology and fire potential can be provided by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is already found applicable in the fire activity of the Mediterranean region (Carvalho et al., 2008). However, lack of meteorological data or remote fire spots can be sources of uncertainties for fire risk estimation. In addition to the direct fire damage, these fires produced large quantities of gaseous air pollutants and particles (PM10) dispersed over the area of Greece. Indeed, PM10 concentration measurements showed two pollution episodes over Athens during late August and early September, 2007 (Liu et al., 2009). Nevertheless, these measurements neither show the large spatial extent of fire effects nor reveal its important role on atmospheric chemistry. In the current study, the application of the atmospheric model COSMO-ART is used to investigate the issues addressed above. COSMO-ART (Vogel et al. 2009) is a regional chemistry transport model (ART stands for Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) online-coupled to the COSMO regional numerical weather prediction and climate model (Baldauf et al. 2011). The current simulations are performed between August 15 and September 15 over Greece with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical extend up to 20 km. The initial and boundary meteorological conditions are derived from a coarser COSMO simulation performed by the German Weather Service. Fire emissions are retrieved from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (van der Werf et al., 2010). The anthropogenic emission database used is the TNO/MACC (Kuenen et

  10. A Lagrangian particle model to predict the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, D.; Reiczigel, J.; Rubel, F.

    Airborne spread of bioaerosols in the boundary layer over a complex terrain is simulated using a Lagrangian particle model, and applied to modelling the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. Two case studies are made with study domains located in a hilly region in the northwest of the Styrian capital Graz, the second largest town in Austria. Mountainous terrain as well as inhomogeneous and time varying meteorological conditions prevent from application of so far used Gaussian dispersion models, while the proposed model can handle these realistically. In the model, trajectories of several thousands of particles are computed and the distribution of virus concentration near the ground is calculated. This allows to assess risk of infection areas with respect to animal species of interest, such as cattle, swine or sheep. Meteorological input data like wind field and other variables necessary to compute turbulence were taken from the new pre-operational version of the non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model LMK ( Lokal-Modell-Kürzestfrist) running at the German weather service DWD ( Deutscher Wetterdienst). The LMK model provides meteorological parameters with a spatial resolution of about 2.8 km. To account for the spatial resolution of 400 m used by the Lagrangian particle model, the initial wind field is interpolated upon the finer grid by a mass consistent interpolation method. Case studies depict a significant influence of local wind systems on the spread of virus. Higher virus concentrations at the upwind side of the hills and marginal concentrations in the lee are well observable, as well as canalization effects by valleys. The study demonstrates that the Lagrangian particle model is an appropriate tool for risk assessment of airborne spread of virus by taking into account the realistic orographic and meteorological conditions.

  11. A Physically Based Theoretical Model of Spore Deposition for Predicting Spread of Plant Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isard, Scott A; Chamecki, Marcelo

    2016-03-01

    A physically based theory for predicting spore deposition downwind from an area source of inoculum is presented. The modeling framework is based on theories of turbulence dispersion in the atmospheric boundary layer and applies only to spores that escape from plant canopies. A "disease resistance" coefficient is introduced to convert the theoretical spore deposition model into a simple tool for predicting disease spread at the field scale. Results from the model agree well with published measurements of Uromyces phaseoli spore deposition and measurements of wheat leaf rust disease severity. The theoretical model has the advantage over empirical models in that it can be used to assess the influence of source distribution and geometry, spore characteristics, and meteorological conditions on spore deposition and disease spread. The modeling framework is refined to predict the detailed two-dimensional spatial pattern of disease spread from an infection focus. Accounting for the time variations of wind speed and direction in the refined modeling procedure improves predictions, especially near the inoculum source, and enables application of the theoretical modeling framework to field experiment design.

  12. Turbulence radiation interaction modeling in hydrocarbon pool fire simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BURNS,SHAWN P.

    1999-12-01

    The importance of turbulent fluctuations in temperature and species concentration in thermal radiation transport modeling for combustion applications is well accepted by the radiation transport and combustion communities. A number of experimental and theoretical studies over the last twenty years have shown that fluctuations in the temperature and species concentrations may increase the effective emittance of a turbulent flame by as much as 50% to 300% over the value that would be expected from the mean temperatures and concentrations. With the possibility of such a large effect on the principal mode of heat transfer from a fire, it is extremely important for fire modeling efforts that turbulence radiation interaction be well characterized and possible modeling approaches understood. Toward this end, this report seeks to accomplish three goals. First, the principal turbulence radiation interaction closure terms are defined. Second, an order of magnitude analysis is performed to understand the relative importance of the various closure terms. Finally, the state of the art in turbulence radiation interaction closure modeling is reviewed. Hydrocarbon pool fire applications are of particular interest in this report and this is the perspective from which this review proceeds. Experimental and theoretical analysis suggests that, for this type of heavily sooting flame, the turbulent radiation interaction effect is dominated by the nonlinear dependence of the Planck function on the temperature. Additional effects due to the correlation between turbulent fluctuations in the absorptivity and temperature may be small relative to the Planck function effect for heavily sooting flames. This observation is drawn from a number of experimental and theoretical discussions. Nevertheless, additional analysis and data is needed to validate this observation for heavily sooting buoyancy dominated plumes.

  13. Spread of anti-malarial drug resistance: Mathematical model with implications for ACT drug policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dondorp Arjen M

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most malaria-endemic countries are implementing a change in anti-malarial drug policy to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT. The impact of different drug choices and implementation strategies is uncertain. Data from many epidemiological studies in different levels of malaria endemicity and in areas with the highest prevalence of drug resistance like borders of Thailand are certainly valuable. Formulating an appropriate dynamic data-driven model is a powerful predictive tool for exploring the impact of these strategies quantitatively. Methods A comprehensive model was constructed incorporating important epidemiological and biological factors of human, mosquito, parasite and treatment. The iterative process of developing the model, identifying data needed, and parameterization has been taken to strongly link the model to the empirical evidence. The model provides quantitative measures of outcomes, such as malaria prevalence/incidence and treatment failure, and illustrates the spread of resistance in low and high transmission settings. The model was used to evaluate different anti-malarial policy options focusing on ACT deployment. Results The model predicts robustly that in low transmission settings drug resistance spreads faster than in high transmission settings, and treatment failure is the main force driving the spread of drug resistance. In low transmission settings, ACT slows the spread of drug resistance to a partner drug, especially at high coverage rates. This effect decreases exponentially with increasing delay in deploying the ACT and decreasing rates of coverage. In the high transmission settings, however, drug resistance is driven by the proportion of the human population with a residual drug level, which gives resistant parasites some survival advantage. The spread of drug resistance could be slowed down by controlling presumptive drug use and avoiding the use of combination therapies containing drugs with

  14. Spread of anti-malarial drug resistance: mathematical model with implications for ACT drug policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongtavornpinyo, Wirichada; Yeung, Shunmay; Hastings, Ian M; Dondorp, Arjen M; Day, Nicholas P J; White, Nicholas J

    2008-11-02

    Most malaria-endemic countries are implementing a change in anti-malarial drug policy to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). The impact of different drug choices and implementation strategies is uncertain. Data from many epidemiological studies in different levels of malaria endemicity and in areas with the highest prevalence of drug resistance like borders of Thailand are certainly valuable. Formulating an appropriate dynamic data-driven model is a powerful predictive tool for exploring the impact of these strategies quantitatively. A comprehensive model was constructed incorporating important epidemiological and biological factors of human, mosquito, parasite and treatment. The iterative process of developing the model, identifying data needed, and parameterization has been taken to strongly link the model to the empirical evidence. The model provides quantitative measures of outcomes, such as malaria prevalence/incidence and treatment failure, and illustrates the spread of resistance in low and high transmission settings. The model was used to evaluate different anti-malarial policy options focusing on ACT deployment. The model predicts robustly that in low transmission settings drug resistance spreads faster than in high transmission settings, and treatment failure is the main force driving the spread of drug resistance. In low transmission settings, ACT slows the spread of drug resistance to a partner drug, especially at high coverage rates. This effect decreases exponentially with increasing delay in deploying the ACT and decreasing rates of coverage. In the high transmission settings, however, drug resistance is driven by the proportion of the human population with a residual drug level, which gives resistant parasites some survival advantage. The spread of drug resistance could be slowed down by controlling presumptive drug use and avoiding the use of combination therapies containing drugs with mismatched half-lives, together with reducing malaria

  15. Influence of Fire Partitions on Reaction-to-Fire Properties and Fire Spread Properties of Metal-Skinned Expandable Polystyrene Sandwich Panel%防火分隔对金属面EPS夹芯板对火反应特性和火蔓延特性的影响

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尤飞; 王振华; 邵玥; 胡源

    2015-01-01

    利用既定强度汽油火源引燃金属面可发性聚苯乙烯泡沫夹芯板,采用ISO9705房屋/墙角试验装置和热电偶树分别测定了以石棉布和防火条嵌入分隔板材的对火反应特性和火蔓延特性.结果发现,在既定强度火源下加装石棉布和防火条分隔的EPS夹芯板最大热释放速率(双峰)分别比仅封装但未加装分隔时降低34.3%,和9.6%,、30.2%,和8.2%,,总释放热量分别降低12.5%,和14.1%,;防火隔断可起到很好的隔热效果,阻止热量快速传播和EPS芯材受火行为(热解、熔融、燃烧等);综合而言,石棉布的防火隔断效果大大优于防火条.%Gasoline pool fires with special fire power was used to ignite expandable polystyrene(EPS)foam sand-wichpanels treated with asbestos cloth and fireproof strip.The ISO9705 full-scale room/corner test apparatus and thermocouple trees were adopted to measure the reaction-to-fire properties and fire spread properties.Results show that thepeak heat release rate values of the EPS panels treated with asbestos cloth and fireproof strip decreasedby 34.3%, and 9.6%,,30.2%, and 8.2%,respectively,compared with those treated with sealing,while the total heat release values decreased by 12.5%, and 14.1%,respectively.Therefore,fire partitions have highheat insulation to prevent heat spread and the reaction-to-fire property(pyrolysis,melting,combustion etc.)of EPS.In general,the fire partition ability of asbestos cloth is much stronger than that of fireproof strip.

  16. Agent-Based Evacuation Model Incorporating Fire Scene and Building Geometry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Fangqin; REN Aizhu

    2008-01-01

    A comprehensive description of the key factors affecting evacuations at fire scones is necessary for accurate simulations.An agent-based simulation model which incorporates the fire scene and the building geometry is developed using a fire dynamics simulator (FDS) based on the computational fluid dynamics and geographic information system (GIS) data to model the occupant response.The building entities are generated for FDS simulation while the spatial analysis on GIS data represents the occupant's knowledge of the building.The influence of the fire is based on a hazard assessment of the combustion products.The agent behavior and decisions are affected by environmental features and the fire field.A case study demonstrates that the evacuation model effectively simulates the coexistence and interactions of the major factors including occupants,building geometry,and fire disaster during the evacuation.The results can be used for the assessments of building designs regarding fire safety.

  17. Modeling of oil spreading in a problem of radar multiangle diagnostics of Sea surface pollutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matveev, A. Ya.; Kubryakov, A. A.; Boev, A. G.; Bychkov, D. M.; Ivanov, V. K.; Stanichny, S. V.; Tsymbal, V. N.

    2016-12-01

    The possibilities of a multiangle method of radar diagnostics to determine thickness of an oil film on a sea surface by comparing the radar data with the quantitative modeling results obtained using the model of oil spreading dynamics are analyzed. The experimental results of the remote sensing of the Caspian Sea water area near the Neftyanye Kamni oil field by the Envisat-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and the new Floating Objects Tracking System (FOTS) model of oil spreading are used for the analysis. The model allows to calculate the dynamics and change in the mass and size of an oil slick basing only on the available data of satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis.The model takes into account the main processes that influence the slick formation (gravity spreading, advective transport, dispersion, emulsification, turbulent mixing, and evaporation). This model is used to calculate the thickness evolution and dynamics of the displacement of oil slicks in the period between two consecutive radar images of this region (0.5-4 days) and to estimate the volumes of oil spilled in the field. The good consistence of the height of the oil film calculated using radar measurements and the modeling results confirms the method's reliability.

  18. Practical guidelines for modelling post-entry spread in invasion ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazel Parry

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article we review a variety of methods to enable understanding and modelling the spread of a pest or pathogen post-entry. Building upon our experience of multidisciplinary research in this area, we propose practical guidelines and a framework for model development, to help with the application of mathematical modelling in the field of invasion ecology for post-entry spread. We evaluate the pros and cons of a range of methods, including references to examples of the methods in practice. We also show how issues of data deficiency and uncertainty can be addressed. The aim is to provide guidance to the reader on the most suitable elements to include in a model of post-entry dispersal in a risk assessment, under differing circumstances. We identify both the strengths and weaknesses of different methods and their application as part of a holistic, multidisciplinary approach to biosecurity research.

  19. Spreading Speed, Traveling Waves, and Minimal Domain Size in Impulsive Reaction–Diffusion Models

    KAUST Repository

    Lewis, Mark A.

    2012-08-15

    How growth, mortality, and dispersal in a species affect the species\\' spread and persistence constitutes a central problem in spatial ecology. We propose impulsive reaction-diffusion equation models for species with distinct reproductive and dispersal stages. These models can describe a seasonal birth pulse plus nonlinear mortality and dispersal throughout the year. Alternatively, they can describe seasonal harvesting, plus nonlinear birth and mortality as well as dispersal throughout the year. The population dynamics in the seasonal pulse is described by a discrete map that gives the density of the population at the end of a pulse as a possibly nonmonotone function of the density of the population at the beginning of the pulse. The dynamics in the dispersal stage is governed by a nonlinear reaction-diffusion equation in a bounded or unbounded domain. We develop a spatially explicit theoretical framework that links species vital rates (mortality or fecundity) and dispersal characteristics with species\\' spreading speeds, traveling wave speeds, as well as minimal domain size for species persistence. We provide an explicit formula for the spreading speed in terms of model parameters, and show that the spreading speed can be characterized as the slowest speed of a class of traveling wave solutions. We also give an explicit formula for the minimal domain size using model parameters. Our results show how the diffusion coefficient, and the combination of discrete- and continuous-time growth and mortality determine the spread and persistence dynamics of the population in a wide variety of ecological scenarios. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the theoretical results. © 2012 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  20. Traveling waves and spreading speed on a lattice model with age structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongyi Wang

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we study a lattice differential model for a single species with distributed age-structure in an infinite patchy environment. Using method of approaches by Diekmann and Thieme, we develop a comparison principle and construct a suitable sub-solution to the given model, and show that there exists a spreading speed of the system which in fact coincides with the minimal wave speed.

  1. Interactive modelling of forest fires and their impacts on atmospheric composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangeon, S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Folberth, G.

    2016-12-01

    Forest and wildland fires are a significant emission source of gases and aerosols to the atmosphere. In particular, biomass burning has been shown to be a significant driver of interannual variability and short-term climate forcings. Fires emit a wide variety of compounds to the atmosphere, from greenhouse gases to aerosols. Conversely, weather and climate also drive fire occurrence, creating potential feedbacks between climate, atmospheric composition, and fire. Here, we will present INFERNO (INteractive Fires and Emissions algoRithm for Natural envirOnments, described in Mangeon et al., 2016), a reduced complexity approach to global fire modelling coupled to interactive atmospheric composition in the UK Met Office's Unified Model. We will first show the coupled model's performance in capturing burnt area and fire emissions. We will then demonstrate how fires impact atmospheric composition in the global model for present-day scenarios: with our interactive scheme but also with reference datasets of global fire emissions, as well as in simulations assuming no fire emissions. In particular, we will investigate the role of fires on the mean present-day state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability of important atmospheric constituents (e.g., CO and aerosols).

  2. The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildlife Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rudell, T. M. (Theresa M.); Gille, R. W. (Roland W.)

    2001-01-01

    The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?

  3. Dynamics of a spreading thin film with gravitational counterflow using slip model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Naveen Tiwari

    2015-05-01

    Thin liquid films can be made to spread along a solid surface by application of temperature gradients at the liquid–gas interface. The surface tension of usual liquids decreases linearly with temperature thus producing the driving thermocapillary stresses due to the applied temperature gradient. These spreading films are susceptible to a fingering instability at the advancing solid–liquid–vapor contact line, which is linked to the development of a capillary ridge near the advancing front. A thin film climbing up on a vertical substrate against gravity shows interesting dynamics due to strong opposing gravitational counterflow. At the contact-line of the spreading film, slip-model is used to alleviate the stress-singularity due to more usual no-slip boundary condition. It is shown that depending upon the magnitude of a gravitational drainage parameter the steady-profiles of the spreading films show qualitatively different dynamics. The dynamics is in agreement with the experimentally observed profiles in the literature as well as computed profiles using precursor-film model at the contact-line in some earlier theoretical studies. Briefly, their stability behavior is also discussed.

  4. From a thin film model for passive suspensions towards the description of osmotic biofilm spreading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin John

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Biofilms are ubiquitous macro-colonies of bacteria that develop at various interfaces (solid- liquid, solid-gas or liquid-gas. The formation of biofilms starts with the attachment of individual bac- teria to an interface, where they proliferate and produce a slimy polymeric matrix - two processes that result in colony growth and spreading. Recent experiments on the growth of biofilms on agar substrates under air have shown that for certain bacterial strains, the production of the extracellular matrix and the resulting osmotic influx of nutrient-rich water from the agar into the biofilm are more crucial for the spreading behaviour of a biofilm than the motility of individual bacteria. We present a model which de- scribes the biofilm evolution and the advancing biofilm edge for this spreading mechanism. The model is based on a gradient dynamics formulation for thin films of biologically passive liquid mixtures and suspensions, supplemented by bioactive processes which play a decisive role in the osmotic spreading of biofilms. It explicitly includes the wetting properties of the biofilm on the agar substrate via a dis- joining pressure and can therefore give insight into the interplay between passive surface forces and bioactive growth processes.

  5. Spin-1 Ising model: exact damage-spreading relations and numerical simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anjos, A S; Mariz, A M; Nobre, F D; Araujo, I G

    2008-09-01

    The nearest-neighbor-interaction spin-1 Ising model is investigated within the damage-spreading approach. Exact relations involving quantities computable through damage-spreading simulations and thermodynamic properties are derived for such a model, defined in terms of a very general Hamiltonian that covers several spin-1 models of interest in the literature. Such relations presuppose translational invariance and hold for any ergodic dynamical procedure, leading to an efficient tool for obtaining thermodynamic properties. The implementation of the method is illustrated through damage-spreading simulations for the ferromagnetic spin-1 Ising model on a square lattice. The two-spin correlation function and the magnetization are obtained, with precise estimates of their associated critical exponents and of the critical temperature of the model, in spite of the small lattice sizes considered. These results are in good agreement with the universality hypothesis, with critical exponents in the same universality class of the spin- 12 Ising model. The advantage of the present method is shown through a significant reduction of finite-size effects by comparing its results with those obtained from standard Monte Carlo simulations.

  6. Rapid response tools and datasets for post-fire modeling: Linking Earth Observations and process-based hydrological models to support post-fire remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. E. Miller; M. Billmire; W. J. Elliot; K. A. Endsley; P. R. Robichaud

    2015-01-01

    Preparation is key to utilizing Earth Observations and process-based models to support post-wildfire mitigation. Post-fire flooding and erosion can pose a serious threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Increased runoff and sediment delivery due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties are of great concern. Remediation...

  7. EXPERIMENTAL STUDY AND COMPUTATIONAL MODELLING OF GAS FIRED PULSE COMBUSTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Smajevic

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents some results of computational modelling of a gas-fired pulse combustor with aerodynamic valves. The development of the model followed experimental investigations during which the combustor geometry and operating conditions were defined. A simple 'tank and tube' approach was adopted by decomposing the combustor into several elements which were modelled separately, together with the interconnecting processes. The solution was obtained by marching integration in time over several cycles. The model reproduced reasonably well the recorded time history and averaged values of all basic parameters and is expected to complement the experiments aiming to develop a pulse combustor as a device for to cleaning the outer sides of power plants’ boiler heating surfaces during operation.

  8. STRONG GRAVITATIONAL LENS MODELING WITH SPATIALLY VARIANT POINT-SPREAD FUNCTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogers, Adam; Fiege, Jason D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T-2N2 (Canada)

    2011-12-10

    Astronomical instruments generally possess spatially variant point-spread functions, which determine the amount by which an image pixel is blurred as a function of position. Several techniques have been devised to handle this variability in the context of the standard image deconvolution problem. We have developed an iterative gravitational lens modeling code called Mirage that determines the parameters of pixelated source intensity distributions for a given lens model. We are able to include the effects of spatially variant point-spread functions using the iterative procedures in this lensing code. In this paper, we discuss the methods to include spatially variant blurring effects and test the results of the algorithm in the context of gravitational lens modeling problems.

  9. A random walk evolution model of wireless sensor networks and virus spreading

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ya-Qi; Yang Xiao-Yuan

    2013-01-01

    In this paper,considering both cluster heads and sensor nodes,we propose a novel evolving a network model based on a random walk to study the fault tolerance decrease of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) due to node failure,and discuss the spreading dynamic behavior of viruses in the evolution model.A theoretical analysis shows that the WSN generated by such an evolution model not only has a strong fault tolerance,but also can dynamically balance the energy loss of the entire network.It is also found that although the increase of the density of cluster heads in the network reduces the network efficiency,it can effectively inhibit the spread of viruses.In addition,the heterogeneity of the network improves the network efficiency and enhances the virus prevalence.We confirm all the theoretical results with sufficient numerical simulations.

  10. Reliability and efficiency of generalized rumor spreading model on complex social networks

    CERN Document Server

    Naimi, Yaghoob

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the generalized rumor spreading model and investigate some properties of this model on different complex social networks. Despite pervious rumor models that both the spreader-spreader ($SS$) and the spreader-stifler ($SR$) interactions have the same rate $\\alpha$, we define $\\alpha^{(1)}$ and $\\alpha^{(2)}$ for $SS$ and $SR$ interactions, respectively. The effect of variation of $\\alpha^{(1)}$ and $\\alpha^{(2)}$ on the final density of stiflers is investigated. Furthermore, the influence of the topological structure of the network in rumor spreading is studied by analyzing the behavior of several global parameters such as reliability and efficiency. Our results show that while networks with homogeneous connectivity patterns reach a higher reliability, scale-free topologies need a less time to reach a steady state with respect the rumor.

  11. Reliability and Efficiency of Generalized Rumor Spreading Model on Complex Social Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yaghoob Naimi; Mohammad Naimi

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the generalized rumor spreading model and investigate some properties of this model on different complex social networks.Despite pervious rumor models that both the spreader-spreader (SS) and the spreaderstifler (SR) interactions have the same rate α,we define α(1) and α(2) for SS and SR interactions,respectively.The effect of variation of α(1) and α(2) on the final density of stiflers is investigated.Furthermore,the influence of the topological structure of the network in rumor spreading is studied by analyzing the behavior of several global parameters such as reliability and efficiency.Our results show that while networks with homogeneous connectivity patterns reach a higher reliability,scale-free topologies need a less time to reach a steady state with respect the rumor.

  12. A mathematical model of the temperature in a coalfield fire area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LU Guo-dong; ZHOU Xin-quan; JIANG Jie

    2008-01-01

    The regular pattern of temperature change in a coalfield fire area while the fire is being extinguished was studied. To determine the extinguishing effect, a series of linear, logarithmic, polynomial or exponential mathematical regression models were constructed using the observed temperature data from the Xinjiang coalfield fire extinguishing project. The quadratic polynomial mathematical model had the best fit. A large coal fire oven was also used to simulate the coal fire extinguishing process. The same mathematical regression experiments were carried out on that observed data. The results verified that the quadratic polynomial ma-thematical model had the best fit. Therefore, a quadratic polynomial mathematical model is proposed to accurately model the tem-perature-time relationship in a coalfield fire area. An application to coalfield fire suppression shows that the deduced mathematical model can be used to predict the temperature conditions and to determine the effect of fire extinguishing, thereby helping to speed up the fire suppression process in the coalfield fire area.

  13. Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System Failure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nino Prieto, Omar Ariosto; Colmenares Guillen, Luis Enrique

    2013-09-01

    In this paper the Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System is presented. This architecture is a legacy of the Detection System for Real-Time Physical Variables which is undergoing a patent process in Mexico. The methodologies for this design are the Structured Analysis for Real Time (SA- RT) [8], and the software is carried out by LACATRE (Langage d'aide à la Conception d'Application multitâche Temps Réel) [9,10] Real Time formal language. The system failures model is analyzed and the proposal is based on the formal language for the design of critical systems and Risk Assessment; AltaRica. This formal architecture uses satellites as input sensors and it was adapted from the original model which is a design pattern for physical variation detection in Real Time. The original design, whose task is to monitor events such as natural disasters and health related applications, or actual sickness monitoring and prevention, as the Real Time Diabetes Monitoring System, among others. Some related work has been presented on the Mexican Space Agency (AEM) Creation and Consultation Forums (2010-2011), and throughout the International Mexican Aerospace Science and Technology Society (SOMECYTA) international congress held in San Luis Potosí, México (2012). This Architecture will allow a Real Time Fire Satellite Monitoring, which will reduce the damage and danger caused by fires which consumes the forests and tropical forests of Mexico. This new proposal, permits having a new system that impacts on disaster prevention, by combining national and international technologies and cooperation for the benefit of humankind.

  14. Critical paths in a metapopulation model of H1N1: Efficiently delaying influenza spreading through flight cancellation

    CERN Document Server

    Marcelino, Jose; 10.1371/4f8c9a2e1fca8

    2012-01-01

    Disease spreading through human travel networks has been a topic of great interest in recent years, as witnessed during outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1) or SARS pandemics. One way to stop spreading over the airline network are travel restrictions for major airports or network hubs based on the total number of passengers of an airport. Here, we test alternative strategies using edge removal, cancelling targeted flight connections rather than restricting traffic for network hubs, for controlling spreading over the airline network. We employ a SEIR metapopulation model that takes into account the population of cities, simulates infection within cities and across the network of the top 500 airports, and tests different flight cancellation methods for limiting the course of infection. The time required to spread an infection globally, as simulated by a stochastic global spreading model was used to rank the candidate control strategies. The model includes both local spreading dynamics at the level of populations and...

  15. Developing custom fire behavior fuel models from ecologically complex fuel structures for upper Atlantic Coastal Plain forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard R. Parresol; Joe H. Scott; Anne Andreu; Susan Prichard; Laurie Kurth

    2012-01-01

    Currently geospatial fire behavior analyses are performed with an array of fire behavior modeling systems such as FARSITE, FlamMap, and the Large Fire Simulation System. These systems currently require standard or customized surface fire behavior fuel models as inputs that are often assigned through remote sensing information. The ability to handle hundreds or...

  16. Modelling the spread of sexually transmitted diseases on scale-free networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mao-Xing; Ruan, Jiong

    2009-06-01

    In this paper a new model for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) is presented. The dynamic behaviors of the model on a heterogenous scale-free (SF) network are considered, where the absence of a threshold on the SF network is demonstrated, and the stability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained. Three immunization strategies, uniform immunization, proportional immunization and targeted immunization, are applied in this model. Analytical and simulated results are given to show that the proportional immunization strategy in the model is effective on SF networks.

  17. Modelling the spread of sexually transmitted diseases on scale-free networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Mao-Xing; Ruan Jiong

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a new model for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) is presented. The dynamic behaviors of the model on a heterogenous scale-free (SF) network are considered, where the absence of a threshold on the SF network is demonstrated, and the stability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained. Three immunization strategies, uniform immunization, proportional immunization and targeted immunization, are applied in this model.Analytical and simulated results are given to show that the proportional immunization strategy in the model is effective on SF networks.

  18. Bubble spreading during the boiling crisis: modelling and experimenting in microgravity

    CERN Document Server

    Nikolayev, Vadim; Garrabos, Y; Lecoutre, C; Chatain, D

    2016-01-01

    Boiling is a very efficient way to transfer heat from a heater to the liquid carrier. We discuss the boiling crisis, a transition between two regimes of boiling: nucleate and film boiling. The boiling crisis results in a sharp decrease in the heat transfer rate, which can cause a major accident in industrial heat exchangers. In this communication, we present a physical model of the boiling crisis based on the vapor recoil effect. Under the action of the vapor recoil the gas bubbles begin to spread over the heater thus forming a germ for the vapor film. The vapor recoil force not only causes its spreading, it also creates a strong adhesion to the heater that prevents the bubble departure, thus favoring the further spreading. Near the liquid-gas critical point, the bubble growth is very slow and allows the kinetics of the bubble spreading to be observed. Since the surface tension is very small in this regime, only microgravity conditions can preserve a convex bubble shape. In the experiments both in the Mir spa...

  19. Density and persistence analyze on the spreading models multi-regions multi-patchs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariyanto, Hanafi, Lukman; Wahyudi, Suhud

    2017-08-01

    The spread of the virus is widespread in some countries and even can reach some continents. This ever happened in the pandemic H1N1 virus outbreak in 2005 which covers 3 continents, as well as the H5N1 virus that hits several regions in Indonesia. If the virus spreads to the region as a source of the spread, the outbreak will occur due to the movement of infected individuals or vector that moves freely in other regions. The focus of this paper is to analyze the characteristics of the sub-population density, as well as the persistence of individuals moving on the path that connecting two areas of its distribution through mathematical models constructed by the spread of the virus in the three regions. The analysis results showed that the movement of individual sub-population exposure to all of the tracks or individual transfer on another track are having transition due to the genetic evolution of the virus and that causes potential outbreaks in the wider regions.

  20. Litter Species Composition and Topographic Effects on Fuels and Modeled Fire Behavior in an Oak-Hickory Forest in the Eastern USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Matthew B; Hutchinson, Todd F; Dietenberger, Mark; Matt, Frederick; Peters, Matthew P

    2016-01-01

    Mesophytic species (esp. Acer rubrum) are increasingly replacing oaks (Quercus spp.) in fire-suppressed, deciduous oak-hickory forests of the eastern US. A pivotal hypothesis is that fuel beds derived from mesophytic litter are less likely than beds derived from oak litter to carry a fire and, if they do, are more likely to burn at lower intensities. Species effects, however, are confounded by topographic gradients that affect overstory composition and fuel bed decomposition. To examine the separate and combined effects of litter species composition and topography on surface fuel beds, we conducted a common garden experiment in oak-hickory forests of the Ohio Hills. Each common garden included beds composed of mostly oak and mostly maple litter, representative of oak- and maple-dominated stands, respectively, and a mixture of the two. Beds were replenished each fall for four years. Common gardens (N = 16) were established at four topographic positions (ridges, benches on south- and northeast-facing slopes, and stream terraces) at each of four sites. Litter source and topographic position had largely independent effects on fuel beds and modeled fire dynamics after four years of development. Loading (kg m-2) of the upper litter layer (L), the layer that primarily supports flaming spread, was least in more mesic landscape positions and for maple beds, implying greater decomposition rates for those situations. Bulk density in the L layer (kg m-3) was least for oak beds which, along with higher loading, would promote fire spread and fireline intensity. Loading and bulk density of the combined fermentation and humic (FH) layers were least on stream terrace positions but were not related to species. Litter- and FH-layer moistures during a 5-day dry-down period after a rain event were affected by time and topographic effects while litter source effects were not evident. Characteristics of flaming combustion determined with a cone calorimeter pointed to greater fireline

  1. A Stochastic Differential Equation Model for the Spread of HIV amongst People Who Inject Drugs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanfeng Liang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce stochasticity into the deterministic differential equation model for the spread of HIV amongst people who inject drugs (PWIDs studied by Greenhalgh and Hay (1997. This was based on the original model constructed by Kaplan (1989 which analyses the behaviour of HIV/AIDS amongst a population of PWIDs. We derive a stochastic differential equation (SDE for the fraction of PWIDs who are infected with HIV at time. The stochasticity is introduced using the well-known standard technique of parameter perturbation. We first prove that the resulting SDE for the fraction of infected PWIDs has a unique solution in (0, 1 provided that some infected PWIDs are initially present and next construct the conditions required for extinction and persistence. Furthermore, we show that there exists a stationary distribution for the persistence case. Simulations using realistic parameter values are then constructed to illustrate and support our theoretical results. Our results provide new insight into the spread of HIV amongst PWIDs. The results show that the introduction of stochastic noise into a model for the spread of HIV amongst PWIDs can cause the disease to die out in scenarios where deterministic models predict disease persistence.

  2. A Stochastic Differential Equation Model for the Spread of HIV amongst People Who Inject Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yanfeng; Greenhalgh, David; Mao, Xuerong

    2016-01-01

    We introduce stochasticity into the deterministic differential equation model for the spread of HIV amongst people who inject drugs (PWIDs) studied by Greenhalgh and Hay (1997). This was based on the original model constructed by Kaplan (1989) which analyses the behaviour of HIV/AIDS amongst a population of PWIDs. We derive a stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the fraction of PWIDs who are infected with HIV at time. The stochasticity is introduced using the well-known standard technique of parameter perturbation. We first prove that the resulting SDE for the fraction of infected PWIDs has a unique solution in (0, 1) provided that some infected PWIDs are initially present and next construct the conditions required for extinction and persistence. Furthermore, we show that there exists a stationary distribution for the persistence case. Simulations using realistic parameter values are then constructed to illustrate and support our theoretical results. Our results provide new insight into the spread of HIV amongst PWIDs. The results show that the introduction of stochastic noise into a model for the spread of HIV amongst PWIDs can cause the disease to die out in scenarios where deterministic models predict disease persistence.

  3. Optimal control of an SIVRS epidemic spreading model with virus variation based on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Degang; Xu, Xiyang; Xie, Yongfang; Yang, Chunhua

    2017-07-01

    A novel SIVRS mathematical model for infectious diseases spreading is proposed and investigated in this paper. In this model virus variation factors are considered in the process of epidemic spreading based on complex networks, which can describe different contact status for different agents including the susceptible, the infectious, the variant and the recovered in a network. An optimal control problem is formulated to maximize the recovered agents with the limited resource allocation and optimal control strategies over the susceptible, the infected and the variant are investigated. Then the existence of a solution to the optimal control problem is given based on Pontryagin's Minimum Principle and modified forward backward sweep technique. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate obtained theoretical results.

  4. Modelling the effect of an alternative host population on the spread of citrus Huanglongbing

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'A. Vilamiu, Raphael G.; Ternes, Sonia; Laranjeira, Francisco F.; de C. Santos, Tâmara T.

    2013-10-01

    The objective of this work was to model the spread of citrus Huanglongbing (HLB) considering the presence of a population of alternative hosts (Murraya paniculata). We developed a compartmental deterministic mathematical model for representing the dynamics of HLB disease in a citrus orchard, including delays in the latency and incubation phases of the disease in the plants and a delay period on the nymphal stage of Diaphorina citri, the insect vector of HLB in Brazil. The results of numerical simulations indicate that alternative hosts should not play a crucial role on HLB dynamics considering a typical scenario for the Recôncavo Baiano region in Brazil . Also, the current policy of removing symptomatic plants every three months should not be expected to significantly hinder HLB spread.

  5. Modeling the spread of vector-borne diseases on bipartite networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donal Bisanzio

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Vector-borne diseases for which transmission occurs exclusively between vectors and hosts can be modeled as spreading on a bipartite network. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In such models the spreading of the disease strongly depends on the degree distribution of the two classes of nodes. It is sufficient for one of the classes to have a scale-free degree distribution with a slow enough decay for the network to have asymptotically vanishing epidemic threshold. Data on the distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks on mice and lizards from two independent studies are well described by a scale-free distribution compatible with an asymptotically vanishing epidemic threshold. The commonly used negative binomial, instead, cannot describe the right tail of the empirical distribution. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The extreme aggregation of vectors on hosts, described by the power-law decay of the degree distribution, makes the epidemic threshold decrease with the size of the network and vanish asymptotically.

  6. Deciphering the impact of uncertainty on the accuracy of large wildfire spread simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benali, Akli; Ervilha, Ana R; Sá, Ana C L; Fernandes, Paulo M; Pinto, Renata M S; Trigo, Ricardo M; Pereira, José M C

    2016-11-01

    Predicting wildfire spread is a challenging task fraught with uncertainties. 'Perfect' predictions are unfeasible since uncertainties will always be present. Improving fire spread predictions is important to reduce its negative environmental impacts. Here, we propose to understand, characterize, and quantify the impact of uncertainty in the accuracy of fire spread predictions for very large wildfires. We frame this work from the perspective of the major problems commonly faced by fire model users, namely the necessity of accounting for uncertainty in input data to produce reliable and useful fire spread predictions. Uncertainty in input variables was propagated throughout the modeling framework and its impact was evaluated by estimating the spatial discrepancy between simulated and satellite-observed fire progression data, for eight very large wildfires in Portugal. Results showed that uncertainties in wind speed and direction, fuel model assignment and typology, location and timing of ignitions, had a major impact on prediction accuracy. We argue that uncertainties in these variables should be integrated in future fire spread simulation approaches, and provide the necessary data for any fire model user to do so.

  7. A fire suppression model for forested range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq herds of caribou

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald C. Thomas

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A fire suppression model was developed for forested winter range of the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq (formerly Kaminuriak herds of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus in north-central Canada. The model is a balance between total protection, as voiced by some aboriginal people, and a let-burn policy for natural fires advocated by some ecologists. Elements in the model were caribou ecology, lichen recovery after fire, burn history, community priorities for caribou hunting, and fire cycle lengths. The percent ratio of current productive caribou habitat to the goal for that habitat determines whether fire should be suppressed in a specific area. The goals for productive caribou habitat, defined as forests older than 50 years, were scaled by fire cycle length and community priority ranking. Thus, the model is an example of co-management: traditional knowledge combined with science in a joint forum, the Beverly and Qamanirjuaq Caribou Management Board.

  8. Application of computational fluid dynamics modelling in the process of forensic fire investigation: problems and solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delémont, O; Martin, J-C

    2007-04-11

    Fire modelling has been gaining more and more interest into the community of forensic fire investigation. Despite an attractiveness that is partially justified, the application of fire models in that field of investigation rises some difficulties. Therefore, the understanding of the basic principles of the two main categories of fire models, the knowledge of their effective potential and their limitations are crucial for a valid and reliable application in forensic science. The present article gives an overview of the principle and basics that characterise the two kinds of fire models: zone models and field models. Whereas the first ones are developed on the basis of mathematical relation from empirical observations, such as stratification of fluid zones, and give a relatively broad view of mass and energy exchanges in an enclosure, the latter are based on fundamentals of fluid mechanics and represent the application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to fire scenarii. Consequently, the data that are obtained from these two categories of fire models differ in nature, quality and quantity. First used in a fire safety perspective, fire models are not easily applied to assess parts of forensic fire investigation. A suggestion is proposed for the role of fire modelling in this domain of competence: a new tool for the evaluation of alternative hypotheses of origin and cause by considering the dynamic development of the fire. An example of a real case where such an approach was followed is explained and the evaluation of the obtained results comparing to traces revealed during the on-site investigation is enlightened.

  9. Modeling the spread of harmful substances in the atmosphere at a variable velocity profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydosov, Allayarbek; Urmashev, Baidaulet; Zaurbekova, Gulzat

    2016-10-01

    This study developed a mathematical model for the dispersion and transportation of pollutants in the atmosphere. The problem associated with the spread of monodisperse passive tracer from an instantaneous point source in the atmosphere assuming a partial absorption of surface impurities is solved. One version of the computational algorithm and a theoretical justification, is that, the applicability of numerical methods for computational experiment is developed. These results are consistent with the physical laws of the section under consideration.

  10. Obtaining a Pragmatic Representation of Fire Disturbance in Dynamic Vegetation Models by Assimilating Earth Observation Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantzas, Euripides; Quegan, Shaun

    2015-04-01

    Fire constitutes a violent and unpredictable pathway of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being in many biomes of similar magnitude to that of Net Ecosystem Exchange, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in IPCC General Circulation Models poorly represent fire behavior and dynamics, a fact which still remains understated. As DVMs operate on a deterministic, grid cell-by-grid cell basis they are unable to describe a host of important fire characteristics such as its propagation, magnitude of area burned and stochastic nature. Here we address these issues by describing a model-independent methodology which assimilates Earth Observation (EO) data by employing image analysis techniques and algorithms to offer a realistic fire disturbance regime in a DVM. This novel approach, with minimum model restructuring, manages to retain the Fire Return Interval produced by the model whilst assigning pragmatic characteristics to its fire outputs thus allowing realistic simulations of fire-related processes such as carbon injection into the atmosphere and permafrost degradation. We focus our simulations in the Arctic and specifically Canada and Russia and we offer a snippet of how this approach permits models to engage in post-fire dynamics hitherto absent from any other model regardless of complexity.

  11. Dynamical analysis of rumor spreading model with impulse vaccination and time delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang'an; Ma, Chenyang

    2017-04-01

    Rumor cause unnecessary conflicts and confusion by misleading the cognition of the public, its spreading has largely influence on human affairs. All kinds of rumors and people's suspicion are often caused by the lack of official information. Hence, the official should take a variety of channels to deny the rumors. The promotion of scientific knowledge is implemented to improve the quality of the whole nation, reduce the harm caused by rumor spreading. In this paper, regarding the process of the science education that official deny the rumor many times as periodic impulse, we propose a XWYZ rumor spreading model with impulse vaccination and time delay, and analyze the global dynamics behaviors of the model. By using the discrete dynamical system determined by the comparison theory and Floquet theorem, we show that there exists a rumor-free periodic solution. Further, we show that the rumor-free periodic solution is globally attractive under appropriate conditions. We also obtain a sufficient condition for the permanence of model. Finally, with the numerical simulation, our results indicate that large vaccination rate, short impulse period or long latent period is sufficient condition for the extinction of the rumors.

  12. Modeling population dynamics, landscape structure, and management decisions for controlling the spread of invasive plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplat, Paul; Coutts, Shaun; Buckley, Yvonne M

    2012-02-01

    Invasive plants cause substantial economic and environmental damage throughout the world. However, eradication of most invasive species is impossible and, in some cases, undesirable. An alternative is to slow the spread of an invasive species, which can delay impacts or reduce their extent. We identify three main areas where models are used extensively in the study of plant spread and its management: (i) identifying the key drivers of spread to better target management, (ii) determining the role spatial structure of landscapes plays in plant invasions, and (iii) integrating management structures and limitations to guide the implementation of control measures. We show how these three components have been approached in the ecological literature as well as their potential for improving management practices. Particularly, we argue that scientists can help managers of invasive species by providing information about plant invasion on which managers can base their decisions (i and ii) and by modeling the decision process through optimization and agent-based models (iii). Finally, we show how these approaches can be articulated for integrative studies. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.

  13. Low prevalence, quasi-stationarity and power-law distribution in a model of spreading

    CERN Document Server

    Montakhab, Afshin

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how contagions (information, infections, etc) are spread on complex networks is important both from practical as well as theoretical point of view. Considerable work has been done in this regard in the past decade or so. However, most models are limited in their scope and as a result only capture general features of spreading phenomena. Here, we propose and study a model of spreading which takes into account the strength or quality of contagions as well as the local (probabilistic) dynamics occurring at various nodes. Transmission occurs only after the quality-based fitness of the contagion has been evaluated by the local agent. The model exhibits quality-dependent exponential time scales at early times leading to a slowly evolving quasi-stationary state. Low prevalence is seen for a wide range of contagion quality for arbitrary large networks. We also investigate the activity of nodes and find a power-law distribution with a robust exponent independent of network topology. Our results are consi...

  14. The Feasibility of Multiscale Modeling of Tunnel Fires Using FDS 6

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermesi, Izabella; Colella, Francesco; Rein, Guillermo

    2014-01-01

    6. However, the simplifications that are made in this work require further investigation in order to take full advantage of the potential of this computational method. INTRODUCTION Multiscale modeling for tunnel flows and fires has previously been studied using RANS general purpose CFD software......-dimensional quantity. The present study aimed to analyze whether or not the multiscale modeling approach for tunnel fires could be successfully applied in Fire Dynamics Simulator 6 (FDS6), an open source, fire-specific CFD software [4] that is easily accessible to modeling specialists. METHOD The implementation...

  15. Fire safety analysis of the Crystal palace based on optimized BIM model

    OpenAIRE

    Semič, Dejan

    2016-01-01

    This master's thesis comprehensively explores fire safety in high-rise buildings. A fire safety analysis was performed on a model of the Crystal Palace skyscraper, which, at 89 meters, is the tallest building in Slovenia today (2016). A BIM model of the entire building was generated (Archicad) to be used with the software for fire (PyroSim) and evacuation analysis (Pathfinder). The BIM model of the building was optimized in a way it could be directly imported into the software for fire and...

  16. A network-based threshold model for the spreading of fads in society and markets

    CERN Document Server

    Gronlund, A; Gronlund, Andreas; Holme, Petter

    2005-01-01

    We investigate the behavior of a threshold model for the spreading of fads and similar phenomena in society. The model is giving the fad dynamics and is intended to be confined to an underlying network structure. We investigate the whole parameter space of the fad dynamics on three types of network models. The dynamics we discover is rich and highly dependent on the underlying network structure. For some range of the parameter space, for all types of substrate networks, there are a great variety of sizes and life-lengths of the fads -- what one see in real-world social and economical systems.

  17. Laboratory Fire Modeling. 1. Wind-Aided Flame Spread. 2. Wet Coagulation of Smoke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-11-21

    K. L.; Carrier, G. F.; Fendell , F. E.; Gat, N.; Hsu, C. T.; 110 Kwoh. D. S. W.: Lake, B. M.: Wagner, R. M.; Wolff. M. F. 13a. TYPE OF REPORT 13b...Richard Wagner. Theoretical work associated with both tasks was carried out by George Carrier, Francis Fendell , Michael Kezerian, and Lawrence...34,,.’,.’ %. , ,,’, ..’, . ,- .. ’,.. -.% ,,.’.’. .<. .,’ e .,. .t,’%,. Fleeter, R., Fendell , F., Cohen, L. M., Gat, N., and Witte, A. B. 1984 Laboratory facility for wind-aided firespread along a

  18. Externally Fired micro-Gas Turbine: Modelling and experimental performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Traverso, Alberto; Massardo, Aristide F. [Thermochemical Power Group, Dipartimento di Macchine, Sistemi Energetici e Trasporti, Universita di Genova, Genova (Italy); Scarpellini, Riccardo [Ansaldo Ricerche s.r.l., Genova (Italy)

    2006-11-15

    This work presents the steady-state and transient performance obtained by an Externally Fired micro-Gas Turbine (EFmGT) demonstration plant. The plant was designed by Ansaldo Ricerche (ARI) s.r.l. and the Thermochemical Power Group (TPG) of the Universita di Genova, using the in-house TPG codes TEMP (Thermoeconomic Modular Program) and TRANSEO. The plant was based on a recuperated 80kW micro-gas turbine (Elliott TA-80R), which was integrated with the externally fired cycle at the ARI laboratory. The first goal of the plant construction was the demonstration of the EFmGT control system. The performance obtained in the field can be improved in the near future using high-temperature heat exchangers and apt external combustors, which should allow the system to operate at the actual micro-gas turbine inlet temperature (900-950{sup o}C). This paper presents the plant layout and the control system employed for regulating the microturbine power and rotational speed. The experimental results obtained by the pilot plant in early 2004 are shown: the feasibility of such a plant configuration has been demonstrated, and the control system has successfully regulated the shaft speed in all the tests performed. Finally, the plant model in TRANSEO, which was formerly used to design the control system, is shown to accurately simulate the plant behaviour both at steady-state and transient conditions. (author)

  19. Spreading of correlations in exactly solvable quantum models with long-range interactions in arbitrary dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cevolani, Lorenzo; Carleo, Giuseppe; Sanchez-Palencia, Laurent

    2016-09-01

    We study the out-of-equilibrium dynamics induced by quantum quenches in quadratic Hamiltonians featuring both short- and long-range interactions. The spreading of correlations in the presence of algebraic decaying interactions, 1/R α , is studied for lattice Bose models in arbitrary dimension D. These models are exactly solvable and provide useful insight in the universal description of more complex systems as well as comparisons to the known universal upper bounds for the spreading of correlations. Using analytical calculations of the dominant terms and full numerical integration of all quasi-particle contributions, we identify three distinct dynamical regimes. For strong decay of interactions, α \\gt D+1, we find a causal regime, qualitatively similar to what previously found for short-range interactions. This regime is characterized by ballistic (linear cone) spreading of the correlations with a cone velocity equal to twice the maximum group velocity of the quasi-particles. For weak decay of interactions, α molecular, and optical systems, and pave the way to the observation of causality and its breaking in diverse experimental realization.

  20. A study of the spreading scheme for viral marketing based on a complex network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jianmei; Yao, Canzhong; Ma, Weicheng; Chen, Guanrong

    2010-02-01

    Buzzword-based viral marketing, known also as digital word-of-mouth marketing, is a marketing mode attached to some carriers on the Internet, which can rapidly copy marketing information at a low cost. Viral marketing actually uses a pre-existing social network where, however, the scale of the pre-existing network is believed to be so large and so random, so that its theoretical analysis is intractable and unmanageable. There are very few reports in the literature on how to design a spreading scheme for viral marketing on real social networks according to the traditional marketing theory or the relatively new network marketing theory. Complex network theory provides a new model for the study of large-scale complex systems, using the latest developments of graph theory and computing techniques. From this perspective, the present paper extends the complex network theory and modeling into the research of general viral marketing and develops a specific spreading scheme for viral marking and an approach to design the scheme based on a real complex network on the QQ instant messaging system. This approach is shown to be rather universal and can be further extended to the design of various spreading schemes for viral marketing based on different instant messaging systems.

  1. Modelling the Spatial Dynamics of Culture Spreading in the Presence of Cultural Strongholds

    CERN Document Server

    Lizana, Ludvig; Nakanishi, Hiizu; Sneppen, Kim

    2011-01-01

    Cultural competition has throughout our history shaped and reshaped the geography of boundaries between humans. Language and culture are intimately connected and linguists often use distinctive keywords to quantify the dynamics of information spreading in societies harbouring strong culture centres. One prominent example, which is addressed here, is Kyoto's historical impact on Japanese culture. We construct a first minimal model, based on shared properties of linguistic maps, to address the interplay between information flow and geography. In particular, we show that spreading of information over Japan in the pre-modern time can be described as a Eden growth process, with noise levels corresponding to coherent spatial patches of sizes given by a single days walk, and with patch-to-patch communication time comparable to the time between human generations.

  2. Spreading dynamics of an e-commerce preferential information model on scale-free networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Guan, Zhi-Hong; Wang, Yuanmei; Liu, Xiongding

    2017-02-01

    In order to study the influence of the preferential degree and the heterogeneity of underlying networks on the spread of preferential e-commerce information, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-beneficial model based on scale-free networks. The spreading dynamics of the preferential information are analyzed in detail using the mean-field theory. We determine the basic reproductive number and equilibria. The theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproductive number depends mainly on the preferential degree and the topology of the underlying networks. We prove the global stability of the information-elimination equilibrium. The permanence of preferential information and the global attractivity of the information-prevailing equilibrium are also studied in detail. Some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical results.

  3. Modeling the spatial dynamics of culture spreading in the presence of cultural strongholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizana, Ludvig; Mitarai, Namiko; Sneppen, Kim; Nakanishi, Hiizu

    2011-06-01

    Cultural competition has throughout our history shaped and reshaped the geography of boundaries between humans. Language and culture are intimately connected and linguists often use distinctive keywords to quantify the dynamics of information spreading in societies harboring strong culture centers. One prominent example, which is addressed here, is Kyoto's historical impact on Japanese culture. We construct a minimal model, based on shared properties of linguistic maps, to address the interplay between information flow and geography. We show that spreading of information over Japan in the premodern time can be described by an Eden growth process with noise levels corresponding to coherent spatial patches of sizes given by a single day's walk (~15 km), and that new words appear in Kyoto at times comparable to the time between human generations (~30 yr).

  4. Investigating the spread in surface albedo for snow-covered forests in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Libo; Cole, Jason N. S.; Bartlett, Paul; Verseghy, Diana; Derksen, Chris; Brown, Ross; Salzen, Knut

    2016-02-01

    This study investigates the role of leaf/plant area index (LAI/PAI) specification on the large spread of winter albedo simulated by climate models. To examine the sensitivity of winter albedo to LAI, we perform a sensitivity analysis using two methods commonly used to compute albedo in snow-covered forests as well as diagnostic calculations within version 4.2 of the Canadian Atmospheric Model for which PAI is systematically varied. The results show that the simulated albedo is very sensitive to negative PAI biases, especially for smaller PAI values. The LAI and surface albedo of boreal forests in the presence of snow simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite observations. The evaluation of CMIP5 models suggest that inaccurate tree cover fraction due to improper plant functional type specification or erroneous LAI parameterization in some models explains, in part, an observed positive bias in winter albedo over boreal forest regions of the Northern Hemisphere. This contributes to a large intermodel spread in simulated surface albedo in the presence of snow over these regions and is largely responsible for uncertainties in simulated snow-albedo feedback strength. Errors are largest (+20-40%) in models with large underestimation of LAI but are typically within ±15% when simulated LAI is within the observed range. This study underscores the importance of accurate representation of vegetation distribution and parameters in realistic simulation of surface albedo.

  5. Analytical Solutions for Rumor Spreading Dynamical Model in a Social Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallahpour, R.; Chakouvari, S.; Askari, H.

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, Laplace Adomian decomposition method is utilized for evaluating of spreading model of rumor. Firstly, a succinct review is constructed on the subject of using analytical methods such as Adomian decomposion method, Variational iteration method and Homotopy Analysis method for epidemic models and biomathematics. In continue a spreading model of rumor with consideration of forgetting mechanism is assumed and subsequently LADM is exerted for solving of it. By means of the aforementioned method, a general solution is achieved for this problem which can be readily employed for assessing of rumor model without exerting any computer program. In addition, obtained consequences for this problem are discussed for different cases and parameters. Furthermore, it is shown the method is so straightforward and fruitful for analyzing equations which have complicated terms same as rumor model. By employing numerical methods, it is revealed LADM is so powerful and accurate for eliciting solutions of this model. Eventually, it is concluded that this method is so appropriate for this problem and it can provide researchers a very powerful vehicle for scrutinizing rumor models in diverse kinds of social networks such as Facebook, YouTube, Flickr, LinkedIn and Tuitor.

  6. Extracting Data from Disparate Sources for Agent-Based Disease Spread Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Laskowski

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a review and evaluation of real data sources relative to their role and applicability in an agent-based model (ABM simulating respiratory infection spread a large geographic area. The ABM is a spatial-temporal model inclusive of behavior and interaction patterns between individual agents. The agent behaviours in the model (movements and interactions are fed by census/demographic data, integrated with real data from a telecommunication service provider (cellular records, traffic survey data, as well as person-person contact data obtained via a custom 3G smartphone application that logs Bluetooth connectivity between devices. Each source provides data of varying type and granularity, thereby enhancing the robustness of the model. The work demonstrates opportunities in data mining and fusion and the role of data in calibrating and validating ABMs. The data become real-world inputs into susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR disease spread models and their variants, thereby building credible and nonintrusive models to qualitatively model public health interventions at the population level.

  7. Investigating the spread of surface albedo in snow covered forests in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Libo; Cole, Jason; Bartlett, Paul; Verseghy, Diana; Derksen, Chris; Brown, Ross; von Salzen, Knut

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the role of leaf/plant area index (LAI/PAI) specification on the large spread of winter albedo simulated by climate models. To examine the sensitivity of winter albedo to LAI, we perform a sensitivity analysis using two methods commonly used to compute albedo in snow-covered forests as well as diagnostic calculations within version 4.2 of the Canadian Atmospheric Model for which PAI is systematically varied. The results show that the simulated albedo is very sensitive to negative PAI biases, especially for smaller PAI values. The LAI and surface albedo of boreal forests in the presence of snow simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite observations. The evaluation of CMIP5 models suggest that inaccurate tree cover fraction due to improper plant functional type specification or erroneous LAI parameterization in some models explains, in part, an observed positive bias in winter albedo over boreal forest regions of the Northern Hemisphere. This contributes to a large intermodel spread in simulated surface albedo in the presence of snow over these regions and is largely responsible for uncertainties in simulated snow-albedo feedback strength. Errors are largest (+20-40 %) in models with large underestimation of LAI but are typically within ±15% when simulated LAI is within the observed range. This study underscores the importance of accurate representation of vegetation distribution and parameters in realistic simulation of surface albedo.

  8. Spatial modeling of fires: a predictive tool for La Primavera Forest, Jalisco Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Luis Ibarra-Montoya

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The interaction of various elements of socioeconomic, political and cultural nature, influenced by landscape and climatic factors, are important aspects of fire regimes. Space models that integrate these elements and factors help to more accurately predict potential fire areas. The Protected Area Wildlife La Primavera (APFFLP is the main regulator of the climate of the Guadalajara metropolitan area, and forest fires frequently occur there. These represent a challenge for science and technology to develop methodologies that help predict forest fires. This study involves the construction of a spatial model that helps identify potential areas of fire in that area. The model integrates meteorological variables, landscape, fuels, anthropogenic and / or causality, and historical occurrences of fires during the period 1998-2012. According to the model, the variables that determine the areas of greatest fire potential are: slope (landscape, relative humidity (weather, vegetation type (causality and land use (anthropogenic. The model predicts a large area with high potential for fire, located in the central and northwest APFFLP polygon; also, there are small, isolated potential zones in the eastern part of the polygon. The information developed by this study could support the generation of local risk maps, thereby optimizing the actions of fire management and restoration of the La Primavera forest.

  9. Effects of a Sprinkler on Evacuation Dynamics in Fire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Yamamoto

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A fire in an enclosed space, such as a room in a building, is generally called a compartment fire. To prevent the compartment fire, a sprinkler for first-aid fire-fighting is installed in rooms. However, it is difficult to determine the degree to which smoke generation and the fire spreading will be inhibited when sprinklers are on. In particular, demonstrating evacuation behavior assuming an actual fire is impossible. In this study, we evaluated an effectiveness of the sprinkler by numerical simulations. To consider evacuation dynamics, a real-coded cellular automata (RCA was used, where we can freely set the direction and velocity of an evacuee based on a floor field model. To consider the situation in the room fire, we used a simulator called Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. Two cases with and without the sprinkler were compared to see the validity of the sprinkler on evacuation dynamics. The effect of smoke and the expansion of the fire-spreading region were discussed. Results show that, since the fire-spreading region disappears when the sprinkler is actuated, the evacuation time decreases. Even though the sprinkler is actuated, the smoke generated at the beginning of a fire diffuses inside the whole room. However, the duration of evacuees being overwhelmed by smoke is less, because the amount of smoke generated by the pyrolysis reaction is much decreased.

  10. Modelling of sea floor spreading initiation and rifted continental margin formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tymms, V. J.; Isimm Team

    2003-04-01

    Recent observations of depth dependent (heterogeneous) stretching where upper crustal extension is much less than that of the lower crust and lithospheric mantle at both non-volcanic and volcanic margins plus the discovery of broad domains of exhumed continental mantle at non-volcanic rifted margins are not predicted by existing quantitative models of rifted margin formation which are usually based on intra-continental rift models subjected to very large stretching factors. New conceptual and quantitative models of rifted margin formation are required. Observations and continuum mechanics suggest that the dominant process responsible for rifted continental margin formation is sea-floor spreading of the young ocean ridge, rather than pre-breakup intra-continental rifting. Simple fluid flow models of ocean ridge processes using analytical iso-viscous corner-flow demonstrate that the divergent motion of the upwelling mantle beneath the ocean ridge, when viewed in the reference frame of the young continental margin, shows oceanward flow of the lower continental crust and lithospheric mantle of the young rifted margin giving rise to depth dependent stretching as observed. Single-phase fluid-models have been developed to model the initiation of sea-floor spreading and the thermal, stretching and thinning evolution of the young rifted continental margin. Finite element fluid-flow modelling incorporating the evolving temperature dependent viscosity field on the fluid flow also show depth dependent stretching of the young continental margin. Two-phase flow models of ocean ridges incorporating the transport of both solid matrix and melt fluid (Spiegelman &Reynolds 1999) predict the divergent motion of the asthenosphere and lithosphere matrix, and the focusing of basaltic melt into the narrow axial zone spreading centre at ocean ridges. We are adapting two-phase flow models for application to the initiation of sea-floor spreading and rifted continental margin formation. i

  11. A comparative numerical study of turbulence models for the simulation of fire incidents: Application in ventilated tunnel fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos G. Stokos

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to compare the overall performance of two turbulence models used for the simulation of fire scenarios in ventilated tunnels. Two Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes turbulence models were used; the low-Re k–ω SST and the standard k–ε model with wall functions treatment. Comparison was conducted on two different fire scenarios. The varied parameters were the heat release rate and the ventilation rate. Results predicted by the two turbulence models were also compared to the results produced from the commercial package Ansys Fluent. Quite faster simulations were performed using the k–ε turbulence model with wall functions and our findings, as to the basic characteristics of smoke movement, were in good agreement with Ansys Fluent ones.

  12. Fighting Fire with Fire: Modeling the Datacenter-Scale Effects of Targeted Superlattice Thermal Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biswas, S; Tiwari, M; Theogarajan, L; Sherwood, T P; Chong, F T

    2010-11-11

    Local thermal hot-spots in microprocessors lead to worst case provisioning of global cooling resources, especially in large-scale systems. However, efficiency of cooling solutions degrade non-linearly with supply temperature, resulting in high power consumption and cost in cooling - 50 {approx} 100% of IT power. Recent advances in active cooling techniques have shown on-chip thermoelectric coolers (TECs) to be very efficient at selectively eliminating small hot-spots, where applying current to a superlattice film deposited between silicon and the heat spreader results in a Peltier effect that spreads the heat and lowers the temperature of the hot-spot significantly to improve chip reliability. In this paper, we propose that hot-spot mitigation using thermoelectric coolers can be used as a power management mechanism to allow global coolers to be provisioned for a better worst case temperature leading to substantial savings in cooling power. In order to quantify the potential power savings from using TECs in data center servers, we present a detailed power model that integrates on-chip dynamic and leakage power sources, heat diffusion through the entire chip, TEC and global cooler efficiencies, and all their mutual interactions. Our multiscale analysis shows that, for a typical data center, TECs allow global coolers to operate at higher temperatures without degrading chip lifetime, and thus save {approx}27% cooling power on average while providing the same processor reliability as a data center running at 288K.

  13. BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system-BURN Subsystem, part 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    1986-01-01

    Describes BURN Subsystem, Part 1, the operational fire behavior prediction subsystem of the BEHAVE fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system. The manual covers operation of the computer program, assumptions of the mathematical models used in the calculations, and application of the predictions.

  14. Explaining the level of credit spreads: Option-implied jump risk premia in a firm value model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, K.J.M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.

    2008-01-01

    We study whether option-implied jump risk premia can explain the high observed level of credit spreads. We use a structural jump-diffusion firm value model to assess the level of credit spreads generated by option-implied jump risk premia. Prices and returns of equity index and individual options

  15. OECD activities in fire protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaufer, B. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 92 - Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

    2000-05-01

    Numerous fire PSAs (probabilistic safety assessments) have shown that fire can be a major contributor to nuclear power plant risk. However, there are considerable uncertainties in the results of these assessments, due to significant gaps in current abilities to perform realistic assessments. These gaps involve multiple aspects of fire PSA, including the estimation of the probability of important fire scenarios, the modeling of fire growth and suppression, the prediction of fire-induced damage to equipment (including the effects of smoke), and the treatment of plant and operator responses to the fire. Therefore, the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) undertook a study among the Countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) with the focus on some special issues such as fire simulation, fire spreading, and impact of smoke and heat on instrumentation electronics. The results of this study are reported here. (orig.) [German] Eine Reihe von Probabilistischen Sicherheitsanalysen (PSA) haben gezeigt, dass Braende ein wesentlicher Risikofaktor bei Kernkraftwerken sind. Es gibt jedoch betraechtliche Unsicherheiten bei diesen Analysen. Gruende hierfuer sind Probleme bei der Abschaetzung der Wahrscheinlichkeit wichtiger Brandszenarien, bei der Modellierung der Brandausbreitung bzw. -unterdrueckung, bei der Vorhersage Feuer-bedingter Schaeden an Geraeten (einschliesslich der Einwirkung von Rauch) sowie bei der Einschaetzung der Brandbekaempfung durch Betriebspersonal. Deshalb hat die Kernenergieagentur (NEA) eine Studie in den Laendern der Organisation fuer wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (OECD) durchgefuehrt mit den Schwerpunkten Brandsimulation, Feuerausbreitung und Einfluss von Rauch und Hitze auf elektronische Geraete. Ueber die Ergebnisse dieser Studie wird in dem vorliegenden Beitrag berichtet. (orig.)

  16. Lattice three-species models of the spatial spread of rabies among foxes

    CERN Document Server

    Benyoussef, A; Chakib, H; Ez-Zahraouy, H

    1999-01-01

    Lattice models describing the spatial spread of rabies among foxes are studied. In these models, the fox population is divided into three-species: susceptible, infected or incubating, and infectious or rabid. They are based on the fact that susceptible and incubating foxes are territorial while rabid foxes have lost their sense of direction and move erratically. Two different models are investigated: a one-dimensional coupled-map lattice model, and a two-dimensional automata network model. Both models take into account the short-range character of the infection process and the diffusive motion of rabid foxes. Numerical simulations show how the spatial distribution of rabies, and the speed of propagation of the epizootic front depend upon the carrying capacity of the environment and diffusion of rabid foxes out of their territory.

  17. Tunnel fire testing and modeling the Morgex North tunnel experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Borghetti, Fabio; Gandini, Paolo; Frassoldati, Alessio; Tavelli, Silvia

    2017-01-01

    This book aims to cast light on all aspects of tunnel fires, based on experimental activities and theoretical and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. In particular, the authors describe a transient full-scale fire test (~15 MW), explaining how they designed and performed the experimental activity inside the Morgex North tunnel in Italy. The entire organization of the experiment is described, from preliminary evaluations to the solutions found for management of operational difficulties and safety issues. This fire test allowed the collection of different measurements (temperature, air velocity, smoke composition, pollutant species) useful for validating and improving CFD codes and for testing the real behavior of the tunnel and its safety systems during a diesel oil fire with a significant heat release rate. Finally, the fire dynamics are compared with empirical correlations, CFD simulations, and literature measurements obtained in other similar tunnel fire tests. This book will be of interest to all ...

  18. Models of Wake-Vortex Spreading Mechanisms and Their Estimated Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossow, Vernon J.; Hardy, Gordon H.; Meyn, Larry A.

    2006-01-01

    One of the primary constraints on the capacity of the nation's air transportation system is the landing capacity at its busiest airports. Many airports with nearly-simultaneous operations on closely-spaced parallel runways (i.e., as close as 750 ft (246m)) suffer a severe decrease in runway acceptance rate when weather conditions do not allow full utilization. The objective of a research program at NASA Ames Research Center is to develop the technologies needed for traffic management in the airport environment so that operations now allowed on closely-spaced parallel runways under Visual Meteorological Conditions can also be carried out under Instrument Meteorological Conditions. As part of this overall research objective, the study reported here has developed improved models for the various aerodynamic mechanisms that spread and transport wake vortices. The purpose of the study is to continue the development of relationships that increase the accuracy of estimates for the along-trail separation distances available before the vortex wake of a leading aircraft intrudes into the airspace of a following aircraft. Details of the models used and their uncertainties are presented in the appendices to the paper. Suggestions are made as to the theoretical and experimental research needed to increase the accuracy of and confidence level in the models presented and instrumentation required or more precise estimates of the motion and spread of vortex wakes. The improved wake models indicate that, if the following aircraft is upwind of the leading aircraft, the vortex wakes of the leading aircraft will not intrude into the airspace of the following aircraft for about 7s (based on pessimistic assumptions) for most atmospheric conditions. The wake-spreading models also indicate that longer time intervals before wake intrusion are available when atmospheric turbulence levels are mild or moderate. However, if the estimates for those time intervals are to be reliable, further study

  19. Computational Modeling of Tangentially Fired Boiler (I) Models, Flow Field and Temperature Profiles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    In this work, an Eulerian/Lagrangian approach has been employed to investigate numerically the flow characteristics, heat transfer and combustion in a tangentially fired furnace. The RNG (Re-normalization group) k-e model and a new method for cell face velocity interpolation based on a non-staggered grid system are employed. To avoid pseudo-diffusion that is significant in modeling tangentially fired furnaces, attempts are made at improving the differential volume scheme. Some new developments on turbulent diffusion of particles are also taken into account. Thus, computational accuracy is improved substantially.

  20. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  1. INFERNO, a simple approach for interactive fires and their emissions within the Met Office Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangeon, Stephane; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Folberth, Gerd

    2015-04-01

    Forest fires remain a crucial element of the Earth system, affecting and affected by the biosphere and the atmosphere. In particular emissions of trace gases (CO2, CO, NOx...) from forest fires can affect radiative forcing as well as atmospheric composition, similarly aerosols such as Black Carbon (also a strong sunlight absorber) and Organic Carbon emitted by fires can participate in cloud droplet nucleation, contributing to the aerosol indirect effect. Global estimates of fire emissions have greatly improved over the last decade, mainly through the developments in satellite observations. However, such estimates remain constrained to the recent satellite observational period; to study fires under past and future climates one has to resort to models. We will present the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO) scheme for the Met Office's Unified Model, which builds on previous work for the GISS climate model. We start from simulated fire counts using proxies for flammability (meteorology and vegetation), ignitions and fire suppression. We then extend this parameterisation to predict burnt area, burnt biomass and subsequent emissions. This climate-sensitive parameterisation utilises temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and vegetation modelling (biomass and leaf area index) to model flammability. Ignitions depend on population density and lightning strikes. Of all these variables, only population density needs to be prescribed, hence INFERNO can be run interactively within a coupled earth system model. Our approach is also distinct owing to its simplicity and is computationally inexpensive, a necessary characteristic as it is aimed to run interactively over climatological timescales. The performance of this scheme is assessed against the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED); early analysis shows this new approach effectively captures the spatial and inter-annual variability of burnt area and fire emissions of CO2 and CO

  2. Computational fluid dynamics in fire engineering theory, modelling and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Yuen, Kwok Kit

    2009-01-01

    Fire and combustion presents a significant engineering challenge to mechanical, civil and dedicated fire engineers, as well as specialists in the process and chemical, safety, buildings and structural fields. We are reminded of the tragic outcomes of 'untenable' fire disasters such as at King's Cross underground station or Switzerland's St Gotthard tunnel. In these and many other cases, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is at the forefront of active research into unravelling the probable causes of fires and helping to design structures and systems to ensure that they are less likely in the f

  3. Reducing Spread in Climate Model Projections of a September Ice-Free Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiping; Song, Mirong; Horton, Radley M.; Hu, Yongyun

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to approx. 1.7 million sq km in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million sq km) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to approx.1.7 million sq km in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

  4. Mathematical models are a powerful method to understand and control the spread of Huanglongbing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Rachel A; Mordecai, Erin A; Gilligan, Christopher A; Rohr, Jason R; Johnson, Leah R

    2016-01-01

    Huanglongbing (HLB), or citrus greening, is a global citrus disease occurring in almost all citrus growing regions. It causes substantial economic burdens to individual growers, citrus industries and governments. Successful management strategies to reduce disease burden are desperately needed but with so many possible interventions and combinations thereof it is difficult to know which are worthwhile or cost-effective. We review how mathematical models have yielded useful insights into controlling disease spread for other vector-borne plant diseases, and the small number of mathematical models of HLB. We adapt a malaria model to HLB, by including temperature-dependent psyllid traits, "flushing" of trees, and economic costs, to show how models can be used to highlight the parameters that require more data collection or that should be targeted for intervention. We analyze the most common intervention strategy, insecticide spraying, to determine the most cost-effective spraying strategy. We find that fecundity and feeding rate of the vector require more experimental data collection, for wider temperatures ranges. Also, the best strategy for insecticide intervention is to spray for more days rather than pay extra for a more efficient spray. We conclude that mathematical models are able to provide useful recommendations for managing HLB spread.

  5. A spatio-temporal model to describe the spread of Salmonella within a laying flock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zongo, Pascal; Viet, Anne-France; Magal, Pierre; Beaumont, Catherine

    2010-12-21

    Salmonella is one of the major sources of toxi-infection in humans, most often because of consumption of poultry products. The main reason for this association is the presence in hen flocks of silent carriers, i.e. animals harboring Salmonella without expressing any visible symptoms. Many prophylactic means have been developed to reduce the prevalence of Salmonella carrier-state. While none allows a total reduction of the risk, synergy could result in a drastic reduction of it. Evaluating the risk by modeling would be very useful to estimate such gain in food safety. Here, we propose an individual-based model which describes the spatio-temporal spread of Salmonella within a laying flock and takes into account the host response to bacterial infection. The model includes the individual bacterial load and the animals' ability to reduce it thanks to the immune response, i.e. maximum bacterial dose that the animals may resist without long term carriage and, when carriers, length of bacterial clearance. For model validation, we simulated the Salmonella spread under published experimental conditions. There was a good agreement between simulated and observed published data. This model will thus allow studying the effects, on the spatiotemporal distribution of the bacteria, of both mean and variability of different elements of host response.

  6. Mathematical models are a powerful method to understand and control the spread of Huanglongbing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel A. Taylor

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Huanglongbing (HLB, or citrus greening, is a global citrus disease occurring in almost all citrus growing regions. It causes substantial economic burdens to individual growers, citrus industries and governments. Successful management strategies to reduce disease burden are desperately needed but with so many possible interventions and combinations thereof it is difficult to know which are worthwhile or cost-effective. We review how mathematical models have yielded useful insights into controlling disease spread for other vector-borne plant diseases, and the small number of mathematical models of HLB. We adapt a malaria model to HLB, by including temperature-dependent psyllid traits, “flushing” of trees, and economic costs, to show how models can be used to highlight the parameters that require more data collection or that should be targeted for intervention. We analyze the most common intervention strategy, insecticide spraying, to determine the most cost-effective spraying strategy. We find that fecundity and feeding rate of the vector require more experimental data collection, for wider temperatures ranges. Also, the best strategy for insecticide intervention is to spray for more days rather than pay extra for a more efficient spray. We conclude that mathematical models are able to provide useful recommendations for managing HLB spread.

  7. The potential spread of severe footrot in Norway if no elimination programme had been initiated: a simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grøneng, Gry M; Vatn, Synnøve; Kristoffersen, Anja Bråthen; Nafstad, Ola; Hopp, Petter

    2015-02-20

    When severe footrot was detected in Norway in 2008, a surveillance programme was initiated and followed by an elimination programme. By 2013 the disease had spread to two of 19 counties and a total of 119 (1%) sheep flocks had been diagnosed with severe footrot. A simulation model was developed to estimate the potential spread of severe footrot in Norway and to estimate the relative importance of the different spreading routes. The model parameters were based on the rate of spread of the first 38 diagnosed cases and the management and climatic factors particular for Norway. The model showed that by 2013, severe footrot would have spread to six counties and infected 16% of the sheep flocks if no elimination programme had been initiated. If this is compared with the 1% of flocks that were diagnosed in Norway by 2013, there seems to be a large effect of the implemented footrot elimination programme. By 2035, it was estimated that severe footrot would have spread to 16 counties and 64% of the sheep flocks. Such an extensive spread would probably impose a large negative impact on the sheep industry and welfare of the sheep. The most effective way to curb the spread of severe footrot was by decreasing the within county infection rate. This could be achieved by decreasing the contact between flocks or by decreasing the environmental load of D. nodosus, for example by footbathing sheep, culling diseased sheep or eliminating severe footrot in the flock.

  8. Impacts of Boreal Forest Fires and Post-Fire Succession on Energy Budgets and Climate in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, B. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Bonan, G. B.

    2011-12-01

    Vegetation compositions of boreal forests are determined largely by recovery patterns after large-scale disturbances, the most notable of which is wildfire. Forest compositions exert large controls on regional energy and greenhouse gas budgets by affecting surface albedo, net radiation, turbulent energy fluxes, and carbon stocks. Impacts of boreal forest fires on climate are therefore products of direct fire effects, including charred surfaces and emitted aerosols and greenhouse gasses, and post-fire vegetation succession, which affects carbon and energy exchange for many decades after the initial disturbance. Climate changes are expected to be greatest at high latitudes, leading many to project increases in boreal forest fires. While numerous studies have documented the effects of post-fire landscape on energy and gas budgets in boreal forests, to date no continental analysis using a coupled model has been performed. In this study we quantified the effects of boreal forest fires and post-fire succession on regional and global climate using model experiments in the Community Earth System Model. We used 20th century climate data and MODIS vegetation continuous fields and land cover classes to identify boreal forests across North America and Eurasia. Historical fire return intervals were derived from a regression approach utilizing the Canadian and Alaskan Large Fire Databases, the Global Fire Emissions Database v3, and land cover and climate data. Succession trajectories were derived from the literature and MODIS land cover over known fire scars. Major improvements in model-data comparisons of long-term energy budgets were observed by prescribing post-fire vegetation succession. Global simulations using historical and future burn area scenarios highlight the potential impacts on climate from changing fire regimes and provide motivation for including vegetation succession in coupled simulations.

  9. A New Seafloor Spreading Model of the Red Sea: Magnetic Anomalies and Plate Kinematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyment, J.; Tapponnier, P.; Afifi, A. M.; Zinger, M. A.; Franken, D.; Muzaiyen, E.

    2013-12-01

    A high resolution aeromagnetic survey over the Saudi Arabian side of the Red Sea confirms the existence of consistent magnetic anomaly patterns, continuous from 16 to 24°N, and episodic up to 28°N, typical of slow to ultraslow spreading centers. The older Saudi-Sudanese aeromagnetic survey shows that these anomalies are symmetrical between 18 and 23°N. The strong, short-wavelength anomalies over the central trough south of 24°N have long been identified as Chrons 1 to 3 (0-5 Ma). By contrast, the weaker, longer-wavelength anomalies over adjacent sediment-covered areas do not fit standard magnetic anomaly models. The abrupt basement deepening from ~ 1.5 km in the central trough to ~ 5 km beneath the sediments partly accounts for the lower amplitude but not for the lack of short wavelengths. Other spreading centers also lack short-wavelength, high-amplitude magnetic anomalies where covered by thick sediments (Andaman Basin, Juan de Fuca Ridge). We interpret this to reflect the absence of a well-defined layer of pillow lavas, whose emplacement is hampered by rapid, abundant sedimentation. The formation of dykes and sills instead of extrusive lavas results in weaker, less coherent magnetization, generating longer-wavelength anomalies. We test this inference by removing the extrusive basalt contribution from a slow spreading center crustal magnetization model. The computed magnetic anomalies fit well with the shape and amplitude of the anomalies observed in the Red Sea. Two major long-wavelength anomalies are dated at 10-11 Ma (Chron 5) and 14-15 Ma (Chron 5B), implying seafloor spreading back to at least 15 Ma and constraining plate-kinematic reconstructions. Beyond being a key to the geological evolution of the Red Sea, these results emphasize that oceanic crust may exist without clear, short wavelength magnetic anomalies, particularly at the onset of seafloor spreading, when abundant sedimentation may preclude the formation of pillow lavas. The location of many

  10. STUDY ON FOREST FIRE DANGER MODEL WITHREMOTE SENSING BASED ON GIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real-time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. As fire prevention is probably the most efficient means for protecting forests, suitable methods should be developed for estimating the fire danger. Fire danger is composed of ecological, human and climatic factors. Therefore, the systematic analysis of the factors including forest characteristics, meteorological status, topographic condition causing forest fire is made in this paper at first. The relationships between biophysical factors and fire danger are paid more attention to. Then the parameters derived from remote sensing data are used to estimate the fire danger variables, According to the analysis, not only PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) can classify different vegetation but also crown density is captured with PVI. Vegetation moisture content has high correlation with the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (LE) to potential ecapotranspiration (LEp). SI (Structural Index), which is the combination of TM band 4 and 5 data, is a good indicator of forest age. Finally, a fire dsnger prediction model, in which relative importance of each fire factor is taken into account, is built based on GIS.

  11. Historical and future fire occurrence (1850 to 2100) simulated in CMIP5 Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloster, Silvia; Lasslop, Gitta

    2017-03-01

    Earth System Models (ESMs) have recently integrated fire processes in their vegetation model components to account for fire as an important disturbance process for vegetation dynamics and agent in the land carbon cycle. The present study analyses the performance of ESMs that participated in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in simulating historical and future fire occurrence. The global present day (1981 to 2005) burned area simulated in the analysed ESMs ranges between 149 and 208Mha, which is substantially lower than the most recent observation based estimate of 399Mha (GFEDv4s averaged over the time period 1997 to 2015). Simulated global fire carbon emissions, however, are with 2.0PgC/year to 2.7PgC/year on the higher end compared to the GFEDv4s estimate of 2.2PgC/year. Regionally, largest differences are found for Africa. Over the historical period (1850 to 2005) changes in simulated fire carbon emissions range between an increase of +43% and a decrease of -35%. For the future (2005 to 2100) we analysed the CMIP5 simulations following the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 26, 45, and 85, for which the strongest changes in global fire carbon emissions simulated in the single ESMs amount to +8%, +52% and +58%, respectively. Overall, however, there is little agreement between the single ESMs on how fire occurrence changed over the past or will change in the future. Furthermore, contrasting simulated changes in fire carbon emissions and changes in annual mean precipitation shows no emergent pattern among the different analysed ESMs on the regional or global scale. This indicates differences in the single fire model representations that should be subject of upcoming fire model intercomparison studies. The increasing information derived from observational datasets (charcoal, ice-cores, satellite, inventories) will help to further constrain the trajectories of fire models.

  12. 基于Rothermel模型的森林火灾模拟算法的改进%Improvement of the Forest Fires Simulation Algorithm Based on the Rothermel Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    苗双喜; 黄杨; 张波; 孙恒宇

    2012-01-01

    我国是一个森林火灾多发的国家,森林火灾不仅破坏森林生态系统、造成林木资源损失,还会威胁到人民的生命财产安全.因此如何快速精确地模拟森林火灾的蔓延过程对于防灾减灾有重大的意义和作用,本文在深入对比了国内外各种森林火灾蔓延模型的基础上,选择了抽象程度较高、顾及因素全面的Rothermel火灾蔓延模型作为本文的应用模型,在模型的应用中改正了森林火灾范围割的缺陷,优化了多着火点同时蔓延时火灾边界计算方法,最终实现森林火灾模拟的功能,满足了森林火灾蔓延模拟实时高效的要求,为管理部门提供可靠的决策支持.%Forest fire has been happened frequently in China. Forest fires not only destroy the forest ecosystem, resulting in the loss of forest resources, but also are a threat to the safety of life and property of the people. Therefore, how to quickly and accurately simulate the spread of forest fires is of great significance and role in disaster prevention and mitigation. Comparing all kinds of forest fire spread models at home and abroad, this paper selected Rothermel fire spread model as the application model, which have advantages of a high degree of abstraction and taking into account factors comprehensive. During the application of the model, it corrected the forest fire scope fragmented defect,Optimized fire boundary calculation method when the begin fire points catch fire at the same time. In this way, it can achieve the fire simulation function, meet the forest fire spread simulation of real-time and efficient requirements and provide reliable decision support for the management department.

  13. Modelling fast spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases using complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The pandemics of SARS (2002/2003) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the potential of epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in a world that is strongly connected. Global air travelling established an easy and fast opportunity for pathogens to migrate globally in only a few days. This made epidemiological prediction harder. By understanding this complex development and its link to climate change we can suggest actions to control a part of global human health affairs. In this study we combine the following data components to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human: em{Global Air Traffic Network (from openflights.org) with information on airports, airport location, direct flight connection, airplane type} em{Global population dataset (from SEDAC, NASA)} em{Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate disease spreading in the vicinity of airports. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to analyze the impact of the incubation period.} em{WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate data: temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and water vapor pressure} These elements are implemented into a complex network. Nodes inside the network represent airports. Each single node is equipped with its own SIR/SEIR compartmental model with node specific attributes. Edges between those nodes represent direct flight connections that allow infected individuals to move between linked nodes. Therefore the interaction of the set of unique SIR models creates the model dynamics we will analyze. To better figure out the influence on climate change on disease spreading patterns, we focus on Influenza-like-Illnesses (ILI). The transmission rate of ILI has a dependency on climate parameters like humidity and temperature. Even small changes of environmental variables can trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct

  14. A geo-information system approach for forest fire likelihood based on causative and anti - causative factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Srivastava, Sanjay K.; Saran, Sameer; de By, R.A.; Dadhwal, V.K.

    2014-01-01

    Innumerable forest fire spread models exist for taking a decision, but far less focus is on the real causative factors which initiate/ignite fire in an area. It has been observed that the majority of the forest fires in India are initiated due to anthropogenic factors. In this study, we develop a

  15. Historic global biomass burning emissions based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015)

    OpenAIRE

    Marle, Margreet J. E.; Kloster, Silvia; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Field, Robert D.; Arneth, Almut; Forrest, Matthew; Hantson, Stijn; Kehrwald, Natalie M.; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li,Fang; Mangeon, Stéphane; Yue, Chao

    2017-01-01

    Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data has shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visi...

  16. Smouldering Subsurface Fires in the Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rein, Guillermo

    2010-05-01

    Smouldering fires, the slow, low-temperature, flameless form of combustion, are an important phenomena in the Earth system. These fires propagate slowly through organic layers of the forest ground and are responsible for 50% or more of the total biomass consumed during wildfires. Only after the 2002 study of the 1997 extreme haze event in South-East Asia, the scientific community recognised the environmental and economic threats posed by subsurface fires. This was caused by the spread of vast biomass fires in Indonesia, burning below the surface for months during the El Niño climate event. It has been calculated that these fires released between 0.81 and 2.57 Gton of carbon gases (13-40% of global emissions). Large smouldering fires are rare events at the local scale but occur regularly at a global scale. Once ignited, they are particularly difficult to extinguish despite extensive rains or fire-fighting attempts and can persist for long periods of time (months, years) spreading over very extensive areas of forest and deep into the soil. Indeed, these are the oldest continuously burning fires on Earth. Earth scientists are interested in smouldering fires because they destroy large amounts of biomass and cause greater damage to the soil ecosystem than flaming fires do. Moreover, these fires cannot be detected with current satellite remote sensing technologies causing inconsistencies between emission inventories and model predictions. Organic soils sustain smouldering fire (hummus, duff, peat and coal) which total carbon pool exceeds that of the world's forests or the atmosphere. This have important implications for climate change. Warmer temperatures at high latitudes are resulting in unprecedented permafrost thaw that is leaving large soil carbon pools exposed to fires. Because the CO2 flux from peat fires has been measured to be about 3000 times larger that the natural degradation flux, permafrost thaw is a risk for greater carbon release by fire and subsequently

  17. Modeling Payload Stowage Impacts on Fire Risks On-Board the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, Kellie e.; Brown, Patrick F.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to determine the risks of fire on-board the ISS due to non-standard stowage. ISS stowage is constantly being reexamined for optimality. Non-standard stowage involves stowing items outside of rack drawers, and fire risk is a key concern and is heavily mitigated. A Methodology is needed to account for fire risk due to non-standard stowage to capture the risk. The contents include: 1) Fire Risk Background; 2) General Assumptions; 3) Modeling Techniques; 4) Event Sequence Diagram (ESD); 5) Qualitative Fire Analysis; 6) Sample Qualitative Results for Fire Risk; 7) Qualitative Stowage Analysis; 8) Sample Qualitative Results for Non-Standard Stowage; and 9) Quantitative Analysis Basic Event Data.

  18. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Modeling fuel consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger D. Ottmar

    2014-01-01

    Fuel consumption specifies the amount of vegetative biomass consumed during wildland fire. It is a two-stage process of pyrolysis and combustion that occurs simultaneously and at different rates depending on the characteristics and condition of the fuel, weather, topography, and in the case of prescribed fire, ignition rate and pattern. Fuel consumption is the basic...

  19. Simulations in the mathematical modeling of the spread of the Hantavirus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, M. A.; Abramson, G.; Bishop, A. R.; Kenkre, V. M.

    2002-10-01

    The range of validity of a recently proposed deterministic (mean field) model of the spread of the Hantavirus infection is studied with the help of Monte Carlo simulations for the evolution of mice populations. The simulation is found to reproduce earlier results on the average but to display additional behavior stemming from discreteness in mice number and from fluctuations of the finite size system. It is shown that mice diffusion affects those additional features of the simulation in a physically understandable manner, higher diffusion constants leading to greater agreement with the mean field results.

  20. Accuracy of depolarization and delay spread predictions using advanced ray-based modeling in indoor scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mani Francesco

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This article investigates the prediction accuracy of an advanced deterministic propagation model in terms of channel depolarization and frequency selectivity for indoor wireless propagation. In addition to specular reflection and diffraction, the developed ray tracing tool considers penetration through dielectric blocks and/or diffuse scattering mechanisms. The sensitivity and prediction accuracy analysis is based on two measurement campaigns carried out in a warehouse and an office building. It is shown that the implementation of diffuse scattering into RT significantly increases the accuracy of the cross-polar discrimination prediction, whereas the delay-spread prediction is only marginally improved.

  1. Development of customized fire behavior fuel models for boreal forests of northeastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhi Wei; He, Hong Shi; Chang, Yu; Liu, Zhi Hua; Chen, Hong Wei

    2011-12-01

    Knowledge of forest fuels and their potential fire behavior across a landscape is essential in fire management. Four customized fire behavior fuel models that differed significantly in fuels characteristics and environmental conditions were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis based on fuels data collected across a boreal forest landscape in northeastern China. Fuel model I represented the dense and heavily branched Pinus pumila shrubland which has significant fine live woody fuels. These forests occur mainly at higher mountain elevations. Fuel model II is applicable to forests dominated by Betula platyphylla and Populus davidiana occurring in native forests on hill slopes or at low mountain elevations. This fuel model was differentiated from other fuel models by higher herbaceous cover and lower fine live woody loading. The primary coniferous forests dominated by Larix gmelini and Pinus sylvestris L. var. mongolica were classified as fuel model III and fuel model IV. Those fuel models differed from one another in average cover and height of understory shrub and herbaceous layers as well as in aspect. The potential fire behavior for each fuel model was simulated with the BehavePlus5.0 fire behavior prediction system. The simulation results indicated that the Pinus pumila shrubland fuels had the most severe fire behavior for the 97th percentile weather condition, and had the least severe fire behavior under 90th percentile weather condition. Fuel model II presented the least severe fire potential across weather conditions. Fuel model IV resulted in greater fire severity than Fuel model III across the two weather scenarios that were examined.

  2. Information spreading on mobile communication networks: A new model that incorporates human behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Fei; Li, Sai-Ping; Liu, Chuang

    2017-03-01

    Recently, there is a growing interest in the modeling and simulation based on real social networks among researchers in multi-disciplines. Using an empirical social network constructed from the calling records of a Chinese mobile service provider, we here propose a new model to simulate the information spreading process. This model takes into account two important ingredients that exist in real human behaviors: information prevalence and preferential spreading. The fraction of informed nodes when the system reaches an asymptotically stable state is primarily determined by information prevalence, and the heterogeneity of link weights would slow down the information diffusion. Moreover, the sizes of blind clusters which consist of connected uninformed nodes show a power-law distribution, and these uninformed nodes correspond to a particular portion of nodes which are located at special positions in the network, namely at the edges of large clusters or inside the clusters connected through weak links. Since the simulations are performed on a real world network, the results should be useful in the understanding of the influences of social network structures and human behaviors on information propagation.

  3. Fire emissions simulated by prescribing burned area observations in a global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khlystova, Iryna G.; Wilkenskjeld, Stiig; Kloster, Silvia

    2014-05-01

    The emissions of trace gases and aerosols from large vegetation fires into the atmosphere have an important climate impact. In this study we integrate observed burned area into a global vegetation model to derive global fire emissions. A global continuous burned area products provided by GFED (Global Fire Emissions Dataset) were obtained from MODIS (and pre-MODIS) satellites and are available for the time period 1997-2011. We integrate the global burned area product into the global vegetation model JSBACH, a land part of the Earth-System model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. JSBACH simulates land biomass in terms of carbon, which can be combined with the satellite burned area information to derive fire carbon emissions. Some assumptions on fire fuel consumptions have to be made during the integration of satellite burned area into the JSBACH. This includes processes such as tree mortality and combustion completeness, i.e. how much of the vegetation biomass gets combusted during a fire. Partially, this information can be also obtained from measurements. In this study we follow closely the approach of GFED, incorporating also GFED supplemental information, to simulate fuel consumption in JSBACH. And we compare simulated by this approach fire carbon emissions with the fire emissions from GFED. Global vegetation models often use prescribed land cover maps. The simulated in the JSBACH vegetation biomass and thus the simulated fire carbon emissions critically depend on the land cover distribution. In our study we derive fire carbon emissions using two different land cover parameterizations, based on two different satellite datasets. We will present the results obtained from simulations using the JSBACH standard MODIS based vegetation distribution and compare them to the results derived using the recently released ESA CCI land cover satellite product to demonstrate the sensitivity of simulated fire carbon emissions to the underlying land cover

  4. Modeling fire spatial non-stationary in Portugal using GWR and GAMLSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Amaral Turkman, Maria A.; Bistinas, Ioannis; Pereira, José M. C.

    2014-05-01

    Portuguese wildfires are responsible for large environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts and, in the last decade, vegetation fires consumed on average 140.000ha/year. Portugal has a unique fires-atlas of burnt scar perimeters covering the 1975-2009 period, which allows the assessment of the fire most affected areas. It's crucial to understand the influence of the main drivers of forest fires and its spatial distribution in order to set new management strategies to reduce its impacts. Thus, this study aims at evaluating the spatial stationarity of the fire-environment relationship using two statistical approaches: Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Analysis was performed using a regular 2kmx2km cell size grid, a total of 21293 observations overlaying the mainland of Portugal. Fire incidence was determined as the number of times each grid cell burned in the 35 years period. For the GWR analysis the group of environmental variables selected as predictors are: ignition source (population density (PD)); vegetation (proportion of forest and shrubland (FORSHR)); and weather (total precipitation of the coldest quarter (PCQ). Results showed that the fire-environment relationship is non-stationary, thus the coefficient estimates of all the predictors vary spatially, both in magnitude and sign. The most statistically significant predictor is FORSHR, followed by the PCQ. Despite the relationship between fire incidence and PD is non-stationary, only 9% of the observations are statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence. When compared with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) global model, 53% of the R2 statistic is above the 26% global estimated value, meaning a better explanation of the fire incidence variance with the local model approach. Using the same environmental variables, fire incidence was also modeled using GAMLSS to characterize nonstationarities in fire incidence. It is

  5. Do you BEHAVE? - Application of the BehavePlus fire modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pat Andrews

    2010-01-01

    The BehavePlus fire modeling system is the successor to BEHAVE, which was first used in the field in 1984. It is public domain software, available for free use on personal computers. Information on user communities and fire management applications can be useful in designing next generation systems. Several sources of information about BehavePlus are summarized to...

  6. Fuel treatment effects on modeled landscape level fire behavior in the northern Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Moghaddas; B.M. Collins; K. Menning; E.E.Y. Moghaddas; S.L. Stephens

    2010-01-01

    Across the western United States, decades of fire exclusion combined with past management history have contributed to the current condition of extensive areas of high-density, shade-tolerant coniferous stands that are increasingly prone to high-severity fires. Here, we report the modeled effects of constructed defensible fuel profile zones and group selection...

  7. Evaluation of wildland fire smoke plume dynamics and aerosol load using UV scanning lidar and fire-atmosphere modelling during the Mediterranean Letia 2010 experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroy-Cancellieri, V.; Augustin, P.; Filippi, J. B.; Mari, C.; Fourmentin, M.; Bosseur, F.; Morandini, F.; Delbarre, H.

    2014-03-01

    Vegetation fires emit large amount of gases and aerosols which are detrimental to human health. Smoke exposure near and downwind of fires depends on the fire propagation, the atmospheric circulations and the burnt vegetation. A better knowledge of the interaction between wildfire and atmosphere is a primary requirement to investigate fire smoke and particle transport. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the usefulness of an UV scanning lidar to characterise the fire smoke plume and consequently validate fire-atmosphere model simulations. An instrumented burn was conducted in a Mediterranean area typical of ones frequently subject to wildfire with low dense shrubs. Using lidar measurements positioned near the experimental site, fire smoke plume was thoroughly characterised by its optical properties, edge and dynamics. These parameters were obtained by combining methods based on lidar inversion technique, wavelet edge detection and a backscatter barycentre technique. The smoke plume displacement was determined using a digital video camera coupled with the lidar. The simulation was performed using a mesoscale atmospheric model in a large eddy simulation configuration (Meso-NH) coupled to a fire propagation physical model (ForeFire), taking into account the effect of wind, slope and fuel properties. A passive numerical scalar tracer was injected in the model at fire location to mimic the smoke plume. The simulated fire smoke plume width remained within the edge smoke plume obtained from lidar measurements. The maximum smoke injection derived from lidar backscatter coefficients and the simulated passive tracer was around 200 m. The vertical position of the simulated plume barycentre was systematically below the barycentre derived from the lidar backscatter coefficients due to the oversimplified properties of the passive tracer compared to real aerosol particles. Simulated speed and horizontal location of the plume compared well with the observations derived from

  8. Evaluation of vegetation fire smoke plume dynamics and aerosol load using UV scanning lidar and fire-atmosphere modelling during the Mediterranean Letia 2010 experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroy-Cancellieri, V.; Augustin, P.; Filippi, J. B.; Mari, C.; Fourmentin, M.; Bosseur, F.; Morandini, F.; Delbarre, H.

    2013-08-01

    Vegetation fires emit large amount of gases and aerosols which are detrimental to human health. Smoke exposure near and downwind of fires depends on the fire propagation, the atmospheric circulations and the burnt vegetation. A better knowledge of the interaction between wildfire and atmosphere is a primary requirement to investigate fire smoke and particle transport. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the usefulness of an UV scanning lidar to characterize the fire smoke plume and consequently validate fire-atmosphere model simulations. An instrumented burn was conducted in a Mediterranean area typical of ones frequently concern by wildfire with low dense shrubs. Using Lidar measurements positioned near the experimental site, fire smoke plume was thoroughly characterized by its optical properties, edge and dynamics. These parameters were obtained by combining methods based on lidar inversion technique, wavelet edge detection and a backscatter barycenter technique. The smoke plume displacement was determined using a digital video camera coupled with the Lidar. The simulation was performed using a meso-scale atmospheric model in a large eddy simulation configuration (Meso-NH) coupled to a fire propagation physical model (ForeFire) taking into account the effect of wind, slope and fuel properties. A passive numerical scalar tracer was injected in the model at fire location to mimic the smoke plume. The simulated fire smoke plume width remained within the edge smoke plume obtained from lidar measurements. The maximum smoke injection derived from lidar backscatter coefficients and the simulated passive tracer was around 200 m. The vertical position of the simulated plume barycenter was systematically below the barycenter derived from the lidar backscatter coefficients due to the oversimplified properties of the passive tracer compared to real aerosols particles. Simulated speed and horizontal location of the plume compared well with the observations derived from

  9. Modeling contact networks of patients and MRSA spread in Swedish hospitals

    CERN Document Server

    Rocha, Luis E C; Esch, Markus; Lenaerts, Tom; Stenhem, Mikael; Liljeros, Fredrik; Thorson, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a difficult-to-treat infection that only in the European Union affects about 150,000 patients and causes extra costs of 380 million Euros annually to the health-care systems. Increasing efforts have been taken to mitigate the epidemics and to avoid potential outbreaks in low endemic settings. Understanding the population dynamics of MRSA through modeling is essential to identify the causal mechanisms driving the epidemics and to generalize conclusions to different contexts. We develop an innovative high-resolution spatiotemporal contact network model of interactions between patients to reproduce the hospital population in the context of the Stockholm County in Sweden and simulate the spread of MRSA within this population. Our model captures the spatial and temporal heterogeneity caused by human behavior and by the dynamics of mobility within wards and hospitals. We estimate that in this population the epidemic threshold is at about 0.008. We also identify ...

  10. Position and orientation estimation of fixed dipole emitters using an effective Hermite point spread function model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stallinga, Sjoerd; Rieger, Bernd

    2012-03-12

    We introduce a method for determining the position and orientation of fixed dipole emitters based on a combination of polarimetry and spot shape detection. A key element is an effective Point Spread Function model based on Hermite functions. The model offers a good description of the shape variations with dipole orientation and polarization detection channel, and provides computational advantages over the exact vectorial description of dipole image formation. The realized localization uncertainty is comparable to the free dipole case in which spots are rotationally symmetric and can be well modeled with a Gaussian. This result holds for all dipole orientations, for all practical signal levels, and for defocus values within the depth of focus, implying that the massive localization bias for defocused emitters with tilted dipole axis found with Gaussian spot fitting is eliminated.

  11. Sudden spreading of infections in an epidemic model with a finite seed fraction

    CERN Document Server

    Hasegawa, Takehisa

    2016-01-01

    We study a simple case of the susceptible-weakened-infected-removed model in regular random graphs in a situation where an epidemic starts from a finite fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds). Previous studies have shown that, assuming a single seed, this model exhibits a kind of discontinuous transition at a certain value of infection rate. Performing Monte Carlo simulations and evaluating approximate master equations, we find that the present model has two critical infection rates with a finite seed fraction. At the first critical rate the system shows a percolation transition of clusters composed of removed nodes, and at the second critical rate, which is larger than the first one, a giant cluster suddenly grows and the order parameter jumps even though it has been already rising. Numerical evaluation of the master equations shows that such sudden epidemic spreading does occur if the degree of the underlying network is large and the seed fraction is small.

  12. Spreading of a chain macromolecule onto a cell membrane by a computer simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jun; Pandey, Ras

    2002-03-01

    Computer simulations are performed to study conformation and dynamics of a relatively large chain macromolecule at the surface of a model membrane - a preliminary attempt to ultimately realistic model for protein on a cell membrane. We use a discrete lattice of size Lx × L × L. The chain molecule of length Lc is modeled by consecutive nodes connected by bonds on the trail of a random walk with appropriate constraints such as excluded volume, energy dependent configurational bias, etc. Monte Carlo method is used to move chains via segmental dynamics, i.e., end-move, kink-jump, crank-shaft, reptation, etc. Membrane substrate is designed by a self-assemble biased short chains on a substrate. Large chain molecule is then driven toward the membrane by a field. We investigate the dynamics of chain macromolecule, spread of its density, and conformation.

  13. Analysis of epidemic spreading of an SIRS model in complex heterogeneous networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun-Hsien; Tsai, Chiung-Chiou; Yang, Suh-Yuh

    2014-04-01

    In this paper, we study the spreading of infections in complex heterogeneous networks based on an SIRS epidemic model with birth and death rates. We find that the dynamics of the network-based SIRS model is completely determined by a threshold value. If the value is less than or equal to one, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally attractive and the disease dies out. Otherwise, the disease-free equilibrium becomes unstable and in the meantime there exists uniquely an endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable. A series of numerical experiments are given to illustrate the theoretical results. We also consider the SIRS model in the clustered scale-free networks to examine the effect of network community structure on the epidemic dynamics.

  14. Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Erosion Modeling: An Online Database to Support Post-fire Erosion Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M. E.; Russel, A. M.; Billmire, M.; Endsley, K.; Elliot, W. E.; Robichaud, P. R.; MacDonald, L. H.; Renschler, C. S.

    2013-12-01

    Once the danger posed by an active wildfire has passed, land managers must rapidly assess risks posed by post-fire runoff and erosion due to fire-induced changes in soil properties and the loss of surface cover. Post-fire assessments and proposals to mitigate risks to downstream areas due to flooding, erosion, and sedimentation are typically undertaken by interdisciplinary Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams. One of the first and most important priorities of a BAER team is the development of a burn severity map that reflects the fire-induced changes in both vegetative cover and soils. Currently these maps are known as BARC (Burned Area Reflectance Classification) maps and they are generated from multi-spectral remote sensing data. BAER teams also have access to many erosion modeling tools and datasets, but process-based, spatially explicit models are currently under-utilized relative to simpler, lumped models because they are more difficult to set up and they require the preparation of spatially-explicit data layers such as digital elevation models (DEM), soils, and land cover. We are working to make spatially-explicit modeling easier by preparing large-scale spatial data sets that can be rapidly combined with burn severity maps and then used to quickly run more accurate, process-based models for spatially explicit predictions of post-fire erosion and runoff. A prototype database consisting of 30-m DEM, soil, land cover, and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) maps for Colorado has been created for use in GeoWEPP (Geo-spatial interface for the Water Erosion Prediction Project) with Disturbed WEPP parameters developed for post-fire conditions. Additional soil data layers have been gathered to support a spatial empirical debris flow model that also utilizes BARC maps. Future plans include developing the dataset to support other models commonly used by BAER teams. The importance of preparing spatial data ahead of time can be illustrated with two

  15. Modeling the Spread and Control of the Asian Tiger Mosquito in Los Angeles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, C.; Montecino, D.; Marcantonio, M.

    2015-12-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is among the world's most invasive species. Its spread has been facilitated by rapid global transport of cargo and potentially by the warming of climate, and it is now established on every continent except Antarctica. This species represents a "triple threat" to human health, being a day-biting pest, a competent vector of globally important dengue and chikungunya viruses, and a potential bridge vector of several zoonotic arboviruses. As a result of its importance, the biology of Ae. albopictus is also well-studied, but the fine-scale processes by which it becomes established in a given location are poorly understood. This is because even intensive surveillance systems yield limited information during the early phase of invasions when densities are low, and detection often occurs after populations are relatively widespread. Fine-scale spatial models for mosquito dynamics and movement offer a way forward, marrying our understanding of Ae. albopictus biology with surveillance paradigms and detailed data on the real landscapes where invasions occur. This presentation will consider the impacts of climate on the biology of Ae. albopictus and explore their implications for the ongoing invasion and establishment of Ae. albopictus in Los Angeles since 2011. We have used hierarchical modeling to account for heterogeneities in household-level suitability, then we modeled the stochastic dynamics of Ae. albopictus on this landscape using the suitability surface and a temperature-dependent, dynamical model for reproduction and spread. I will discuss the modeling approach and use the model results to answer policy-relevant questions related to our ability to detect and control these highly invasive mosquitoes.

  16. Spreading depolarizations increase delayed brain injury in a rat model of subarachnoid hemorrhage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamming, Arend M.; Wermer, Marieke J H; Umesh Rudrapatna, S.; Lanier, Christian; Van Os, Hine J A; Van Den Bergh, Walter M.; Ferrari, Michel D.; van der Toorn, A; Van Den Maagdenberg, Arn M J M; Stowe, Ann M.; Dijkhuizen, Rick M.

    2016-01-01

    Spreading depolarizations may contribute to delayed cerebral ischemia after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, but the effect of spreading depolarizations on brain lesion progression after subarachnoid hemorrhage has not yet been assessed directly. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that

  17. Spreading depolarizations increase delayed brain injury in a rat model of subarachnoid hemorrhage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamming, Arend M.; Wermer, Marieke J. H.; Rudrapatna, S. Umesh; Lanier, Christian; van Os, Hine J. A.; van den Bergh, Walter M.; Ferrari, Michel D.; van der Toorn, Annette; van den Maagdenberg, Arn M. J. M.; Stowe, Ann M.; Dijkhuizen, Rick M.

    Spreading depolarizations may contribute to delayed cerebral ischemia after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, but the effect of spreading depolarizations on brain lesion progression after subarachnoid hemorrhage has not yet been assessed directly. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that

  18. Pre-fire and post-fire surface fuel and cover measurements collected in the southeastern United States for model evaluation and development - RxCADRE 2008, 2011 and 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger D. Ottmar; Andrew T. Hudak; Susan J. Prichard; Clinton S. Wright; Joseph C. Restaino; Maureen C. Kennedy; Robert E. Vihnanek

    2016-01-01

    A lack of independent, quality-assured data prevents scientists from effectively evaluating predictions and uncertainties in fire models used by land managers. This paper presents a summary of pre-fire and post-fire fuel, fuel moisture and surface cover fraction data that can be used for fire model evaluation and development. The data were collected in the...

  19. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Temiño-Villota, S.; Rodríguez-Trejo, D.A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Ryan, K.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species. Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough. Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality. Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001), diameter at breast height (p=0.0082), crown length (p≤0.0001) and crown base height (p≤0.0001) were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001) and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001), which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality. Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires. (Author)

  20. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomé Temiño-Villota

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species.Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough.Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality.Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001, diameter at breast height (p=0.0082, crown length (p≤0.0001 and crown base height (p≤0.0001 were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001 and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001, which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality.Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires.

  1. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  2. Using a network model to assess risk of forest pest spread via recreational travel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank H Koch

    Full Text Available Long-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially infested firewood. We constructed the model from US National Recreation Reservation Service data documenting more than seven million visitor reservations (including visitors from Canada at campgrounds nationwide. This bi-directional model can be used to identify likely origin and destination locations for a camper-transported pest. To support broad-scale decision making, we used the model to generate summary maps for 48 US states and seven Canadian provinces that depict the most likely origins of campers traveling from outside the target state or province. The maps generally showed one of two basic spatial patterns of out-of-state (or out-of-province origin risk. In the eastern United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were usually found in a localized region restricted to portions of adjacent states. In the western United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were typically associated with major urban areas located far from the state of interest. A few states and the Canadian provinces showed characteristics of both patterns. These model outputs can guide deployment of resources for surveillance, firewood inspections, or other activities. Significantly, the contrasting map patterns indicate that no single response strategy is appropriate for all states and provinces. If most out-of-state campers are traveling from distant areas, it may be effective to deploy resources at key points along major roads (e.g., interstate highways, since these locations could effectively represent bottlenecks of camper movement. If most campers are from nearby areas, they may

  3. Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

    2016-12-14

    Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery

  4. Modeling the Emission of CO from Wood Fires using Detailed Chemical Kinetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dederichs, Anne

    Carbon monoxide is treated as one of the most common and dangerous of gases evolving in fires. Modeling the formation of the toxic gas CO from in fire enclosures using detailed chemical kinetics is the topic of this manuscript. A semi-empirical model is developed to study the formation of CO from......, the model separately treats the process of pyrolysis and combustion. For under ventilated conditions and at high temperatures during pyrolysis it is found that the process of pyrolysation strongly influences the formation of CO in fire. CO2 follows the same trend....

  5. The Design of a Fire Source in Scale-Model Experiments with Smoke Ventilation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm; Brohus, Henrik; la Cour-Harbo, H.

    2004-01-01

    The paper describes the design of a fire and a smoke source for scale-model experiments with smoke ventilation. It is only possible to work with scale-model experiments where the Reynolds number is reduced compared to full scale, and it is demonstrated that special attention to the fire source...... (heat and smoke source) may improve the possibility of obtaining Reynolds number independent solutions with a fully developed flow. The paper shows scale-model experiments for the Ofenegg tunnel case. Design of a fire source for experiments with smoke ventilation in a large room and smoke movement...

  6. Simulation model of pollution spreading in the water bodies affected by mining mill

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalinkina Natalia Mikhailovna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Water bodies of the northern Karelia are polluted by liquid wastes of Kostomukshsky iron ore-dressing mill. The main components of these wastes are potassium ions. The processes of the potassium spreading in lake-river system of the River Kenty were studied using simulation modeling. For water bodies, where chemical observations were not carried out, the reconstruction of data was realized. The parameters of the model (constants of potassium transfer for seven lakes were calculated. These constants reflect the hydrological regime of water bodies and characterize high-speed transfer of potassium in the upstream and downstream, and low transfer rate - in the middle stream. It is shown that the vast majority of potassium (70% is carried out of the system Kenty and enters the lake Srednee Kuito

  7. Fluctuations in seafloor spreading predicted by tectonic reconstructions and mantle convection models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltice, Nicolas; Seton, Maria; Rolf, Tobias; Müller, R. Dietmar; Tackley, Paul J.

    2013-04-01

    The theory of plate tectonics theory has enabled possible the reconstruction of the ancient seafloor and paleogeography. Over 50 years of data collection and kinematic reconstruction efforts, plate models have improved significantly (Seton et al., 2012) although reconstructions of ancient seafloor are naturally limited by the limited preservation of of very old seafloor. It is challenging to reconstruct ancient ocean basins and associated plate boundaries for times earlier than 200 Ma, since seafloor of this age is not preserved. This means we can merely reconstruct only 5% of the history of the planet in this fashion. However, geodynamic models can now help evaluate how seafloor spreading may evolve over longer time periods, since recent developments of numerical models of mantle convection with pseudo-plasticity can generate long-term solutions that simulate a form of seafloor spreading (Moresi and Solomatov, 1998; Tackley, 2000a; Tackley, 2000b). The introduction of models of continental lithosphere further improves the quality of the predictions: the computed distribution of seafloor ages reproduces the consumption of young seafloor as observed on the present-day Earth (Coltice et al., 2012). The time-dependence of the production of new seafloor has long been debated and there is no consensus on how much it has varied in the past 150My, and how it could have fluctuated over longer time-scales. Using plate reconstructions, Parsons (1982) and Rowley (2002) proposed the area vs. age distribution of the seafloor could have experienced limited fluctuations in the past 150My while others suggest stronger variations would fit the observations equally well (Seton et al., 2009. Here we propose to investigate the global dynamics of seafloor spreading using state-of-the-art plate reconstructions and geodynamic models. We focus on the evolution of the distribution of seafloor ages because fundamental geophysical observations like mantle heat flow or sea level provide

  8. Epcast: Controlled Dissemination in Human-based Wireless Networks by means of Epidemic Spreading Models

    CERN Document Server

    Scellato, Salvatore; Musolesi, Mirco; Latora, Vito

    2007-01-01

    Epidemics-inspired techniques have received huge attention in recent years from the distributed systems and networking communities. These algorithms and protocols rely on probabilistic message replication and redundancy to ensure reliable communication. Moreover, they have been successfully exploited to support group communication in distributed systems, broadcasting, multicasting and information dissemination in fixed and mobile networks. However, in most of the existing work, the probability of infection is determined heuristically, without relying on any analytical model. This often leads to unnecessarily high transmission overheads. In this paper we show that models of epidemic spreading in complex networks can be applied to the problem of tuning and controlling the dissemination of information in wireless ad hoc networks composed of devices carried by individuals, i.e., human-based networks. The novelty of our idea resides in the evaluation and exploitation of the structure of the underlying human networ...

  9. Can information be spread as a virus? Viral Marketing as epidemiological model

    CERN Document Server

    Rodrigues, Helena Sofia

    2016-01-01

    In epidemiology, an epidemic is defined as the spread of an infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time. In the marketing context, a message is viral when it is broadly sent and received by the target market through person-to-person transmission. This specific marketing communication strategy is commonly referred as viral marketing. Due to this similarity between an epidemic and the viral marketing process and because the understanding of the critical factors to this communications strategy effectiveness remain largely unknown, the mathematical models in epidemiology are presented in this marketing specific field. In this paper, an epidemiological model SIR (Susceptible- Infected-Recovered) to study the effects of a viral marketing strategy is presented. It is made a comparison between the disease parameters and the marketing application, and Matlab simulations are performed. Finally, some conclusions are carried out and their marketing implications are e...

  10. The hydraulic jump in radially spreading flow: A new model and new experimental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackford, B. L.

    1996-02-01

    A new model for the hydraulic jump in radially spreading flow is presented. The equation of motion for a liquid annulus spreading out under the influence of hydrostatic pressure gradient and Frictional drag is developed. The resulting nonlinear differential equation for the liquid depth, h(r), is solved by computer simulation. The jump is assumed to begin when the laminar flow is engulfed by the underlying boundary layer liquid, as suggested recently in the literature. This complicated mixing process is crudely modeled by a drag term which slows the flow and initiates a positive feedback mechanism culminating at a new critical depth, beyond which the depth increases asymptotically to a final value. The model predicts a new relationship between the laminar flow depth just before the jump and the final depth. An experimental apparatus was built to make detailed measurements of the depth h(r), both in the region before the jump and beyond the jump. The theoretical predictions were compared to the experimental data, and gave surprisingly good agreement by suitable adjustment of the two parameters k and C of the model. The parameter k determines the growth rate of the boundary layer thickness, and C determines the drag force. The results suggest that the usual textbook assumption of zero momentum loss across the jump is not appropriate for this type of hydraulic jump. The case of a hydraulic jump in the absence of gravity is considered also and a much different behavior is predicted, which could be tested by experiment in a microgravity environment.

  11. Modeling Fire Danger in Galicia and Asturias (Spain from MODIS Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mar Bisquert

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest fires are one of the most dangerous natural hazards, especially when they are recurrent. In areas such as Galicia (Spain, forest fires are frequent and devastating. The development of fire risk models becomes a very important prevention task for these regions. Vegetation and moisture indices can be used to monitor vegetation status; however, the different indices may perform differently depending on the vegetation species. Eight different spectral indices were selected to determine the most appropriate index in Galicia. This study was extended to the adjacent region of Asturias. Six years of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer images, together with ground fire data in a 10 × 10 km grid basis were used. The percentage of fire events met the variations suffered by some of the spectral indices, following a linear regression in both Galicia and Asturias. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI was the index leading to the best results. Based on these results, a simple fire danger model was established, using logistic regression, by combining the EVI variation with other variables, such as fire history in each cell and period of the year. A seventy percent overall concordance was obtained between estimated and observed fire frequency.

  12. Modeling syngas-fired gas turbine engines with two dilutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawk, Mitchell E.

    2011-12-01

    Prior gas turbine engine modeling work at the University of Wyoming studied cycle performance and turbine design with air and CO2-diluted GTE cycles fired with methane and syngas fuels. Two of the cycles examined were unconventional and innovative. The work presented herein reexamines prior results and expands the modeling by including the impacts of turbine cooling and CO2 sequestration on GTE cycle performance. The simple, conventional regeneration and two alternative regeneration cycle configurations were examined. In contrast to air dilution, CO2 -diluted cycle efficiencies increased by approximately 1.0 percentage point for the three regeneration configurations examined, while the efficiency of the CO2-diluted simple cycle decreased by approximately 5.0 percentage points. For CO2-diluted cycles with a closed-exhaust recycling path, an optimum CO2-recycle pressure was determined for each configuration that was significantly lower than atmospheric pressure. Un-cooled alternative regeneration configurations with CO2 recycling achieved efficiencies near 50%, which was approximately 3.0 percentage points higher than the conventional regeneration cycle and simple cycle configurations that utilized CO2 recycling. Accounting for cooling of the first two turbine stages resulted in a 2--3 percentage point reduction in un-cooled efficiency, with air dilution corresponding to the upper extreme. Additionally, when the work required to sequester CO2 was accounted for, cooled cycle efficiency decreased by 4--6 percentage points, and was more negatively impacted when syngas fuels were used. Finally, turbine design models showed that turbine blades are shorter with CO2 dilution, resulting in fewer design restrictions.

  13. Modeling of fire smoke movement in multizone garments building using two open source platforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khandoker, Md. Arifur Rahman; Galib, Musanna; Islam, Adnan; Rahman, Md. Ashiqur

    2017-06-01

    Casualty of garment factory workers from factory fire in Bangladesh is a recurring tragedy. Smoke, which is more fatal than fire itself, often propagates through different pathways from lower to upper floors during building fire. Among the toxic gases produced from a building fire, carbon monoxide (CO) can be deadly, even in small amounts. This paper models the propagation and transportation of fire induced smoke (CO) that resulted from the burning of synthetic polyester fibers using two open source platforms, CONTAM and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). Smoke migration in a generic multistoried garment factory building in Bangladesh is modeled using CONTAM where each floor is compartmentalized by different zones. The elevator and stairway shafts are modeled by phantom zones to simulate contaminant (CO) transport from one floor to upper floors. FDS analysis involves burning of two different stacks of polyester jacket of six feet height and with a maximum heat release rate per unit area of 1500kw/m2 over a storage area 50m2 and 150m2, respectively. The resulting CO generation and removal rates from FDS are used in CONTAM to predict fire-borne CO propagation in different zones of the garment building. Findings of the study exhibit that the contaminant flow rate is a strong function of the position of building geometry, location of initiation of fire, amount of burnt material, presence of AHU and contaminant generation and removal rate of CO from the source location etc. The transport of fire-smoke in the building Hallways, stairways and lifts are also investigated in detail to examine the safe egress of the occupants in case of fire.

  14. INFERNO: a fire and emissions scheme for the UK Met Office's Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangeon, Stéphane; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Gilham, Richard; Harper, Anna; Sitch, Stephen; Folberth, Gerd

    2016-08-01

    Warm and dry climatological conditions favour the occurrence of forest fires. These fires then become a significant emission source to the atmosphere. Despite this global importance, fires are a local phenomenon and are difficult to represent in large-scale Earth system models (ESMs). To address this, the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO) was developed. INFERNO follows a reduced complexity approach and is intended for decadal- to centennial-scale climate simulations and assessment models for policy making. Fuel flammability is simulated using temperature, relative humidity (RH) and fuel load as well as precipitation and soil moisture. Combining flammability with ignitions and vegetation, the burnt area is diagnosed. Emissions of carbon and key species are estimated using the carbon scheme in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. JULES also possesses fire index diagnostics, which we document and compare with our fire scheme. We found INFERNO captured global burnt area variability better than individual indices, and these performed best for their native regions. Two meteorology data sets and three ignition modes are used to validate the model. INFERNO is shown to effectively diagnose global fire occurrence (R = 0.66) and emissions (R = 0.59) through an approach appropriate to the complexity of an ESM, although regional biases remain.

  15. Modelling the effect of surveillance programmes on spread of bovine herpesvirus 1 between certified cattle herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graat, E A; de Jong, M C; Frankena, K; Franken, P

    2001-04-02

    For the eradication of an infectious agent, like bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV-1), surveillance and certification can be used to reduce the transmission between herds. The goal of surveillance is that a certified herd that becomes infected is detected timely so that infection of several other certified herds is prevented. What counts is whether the reproduction ratio R, i.e. the average number of certified herds infected by one infected certified herd can be kept below 1. To support policy makers in making decisions about the minimal demands for a surveillance programme in an eradication campaign of BHV-1 in cattle, two mathematical models were investigated. With these models, the basic reproduction ratio between herds was calculated. The surveillance programmes were characterised with sample size, sampling frequency, test sensitivity, herd size, vaccination status, and contacts between herds. When R between herds is below 1, then the surveillance programme is sufficiently good to prevent spread of infection, provided that R is estimated well. In the model based on bulk milk testing sample size was replaced by a threshold at which bulk milk can be found positive. The R between herds was mainly influenced by the vaccination status, sampling frequency, and contacts between herds. Herd size moderately affected the outcome. Test sensitivity and sample size, however, were of minor importance. If herds of 50 cows became free of BHV-1 without vaccination, then spread of infection between herds might be prevented when animals within herds are sampled once a year (milk or blood samples). This frequency needs to be intensified, being twice a year, for larger herds and/or herds with extensive contacts with other herds. When bulk milk is sampled instead, sampling should be done at least every 5 months and more intensively, being each month, with larger herd sizes and more contacts between herds.

  16. Craniometric data supports demic diffusion model for the spread of agriculture into Europe.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Pinhasi, Ron

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The spread of agriculture into Europe and the ancestry of the first European farmers have been subjects of debate and controversy among geneticists, archaeologists, linguists and anthropologists. Debates have centred on the extent to which the transition was associated with the active migration of people as opposed to the diffusion of cultural practices. Recent studies have shown that patterns of human cranial shape variation can be employed as a reliable proxy for the neutral genetic relationships of human populations. METHODOLOGY\\/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we employ measurements of Mesolithic (hunter-gatherers) and Neolithic (farmers) crania from Southwest Asia and Europe to test several alternative population dispersal and hunter-farmer gene-flow models. We base our alternative hypothetical models on a null evolutionary model of isolation-by-geographic and temporal distance. Partial Mantel tests were used to assess the congruence between craniometric distance and each of the geographic model matrices, while controlling for temporal distance. Our results demonstrate that the craniometric data fit a model of continuous dispersal of people (and their genes) from Southwest Asia to Europe significantly better than a null model of cultural diffusion. CONCLUSIONS\\/SIGNIFICANCE: Therefore, this study does not support the assertion that farming in Europe solely involved the adoption of technologies and ideas from Southwest Asia by indigenous Mesolithic hunter-gatherers. Moreover, the results highlight the utility of craniometric data for assessing patterns of past population dispersal and gene flow.

  17. Craniometric data supports demic diffusion model for the spread of agriculture into Europe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ron Pinhasi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The spread of agriculture into Europe and the ancestry of the first European farmers have been subjects of debate and controversy among geneticists, archaeologists, linguists and anthropologists. Debates have centred on the extent to which the transition was associated with the active migration of people as opposed to the diffusion of cultural practices. Recent studies have shown that patterns of human cranial shape variation can be employed as a reliable proxy for the neutral genetic relationships of human populations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we employ measurements of Mesolithic (hunter-gatherers and Neolithic (farmers crania from Southwest Asia and Europe to test several alternative population dispersal and hunter-farmer gene-flow models. We base our alternative hypothetical models on a null evolutionary model of isolation-by-geographic and temporal distance. Partial Mantel tests were used to assess the congruence between craniometric distance and each of the geographic model matrices, while controlling for temporal distance. Our results demonstrate that the craniometric data fit a model of continuous dispersal of people (and their genes from Southwest Asia to Europe significantly better than a null model of cultural diffusion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Therefore, this study does not support the assertion that farming in Europe solely involved the adoption of technologies and ideas from Southwest Asia by indigenous Mesolithic hunter-gatherers. Moreover, the results highlight the utility of craniometric data for assessing patterns of past population dispersal and gene flow.

  18. Fire modeling for Building 221-T - T Plant Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oar, D.L.

    1994-09-29

    This report was prepared by Hughes Associates, Inc. to document the results of fire models for building 221-T Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel. Backup data is contained in document No. WHC-SD-CP-ANAL-010, Rev. 0.

  19. A mechanistic model of infection: why duration and intensity of contacts should be included in models of disease spread

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smieszek Timo

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical models and simulations of disease spread often assume a constant per-contact transmission probability. This assumption ignores the heterogeneity in transmission probabilities, e.g. due to the varying intensity and duration of potentially contagious contacts. Ignoring such heterogeneities might lead to erroneous conclusions from simulation results. In this paper, we show how a mechanistic model of disease transmission differs from this commonly used assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. Methods We present an exposure-based, mechanistic model of disease transmission that reflects heterogeneities in contact duration and intensity. Based on empirical contact data, we calculate the expected number of secondary cases induced by an infector (i for the mechanistic model and (ii under the classical assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. The results of both approaches are compared for different basic reproduction numbers R0. Results The outcomes of the mechanistic model differ significantly from those of the assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. In particular, cases with many different contacts have much lower expected numbers of secondary cases when using the mechanistic model instead of the common assumption. This is due to the fact that the proportion of long, intensive contacts decreases in the contact dataset with an increasing total number of contacts. Conclusion The importance of highly connected individuals, so-called super-spreaders, for disease spread seems to be overestimated when a constant per-contact transmission probability is assumed. This holds particularly for diseases with low basic reproduction numbers. Simulations of disease spread should weight contacts by duration and intensity.

  20. A novel scintillation imager with charge-spread discrimination. Analytical models suitable for crystal-arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafè, Raffaele; Pellegrini, Rosanna; Cinti, Maria N.; Puccini, Marco; Pani, Roberto

    2016-10-01

    Present paper describes a method for obtaining the physical quantities characterizing single-events based on fitting experimental 2-D charge-profiles to two analytical models. First results are presented regarding a 10×10 LuYAP:Ce array of 2×2×10 mm3 crystal pixels coupled to a H10966 Hamamatsu 8×8 multi-anode assembly under radio-isotopic irradiations and from self-activity. Results show that a photo multiplier tube with cross plate anode configuration would be preferable than a multi anode one due to uniformity, cost, and connections constraints. Among the results a plot of charge spread Vs. charge is to be cited because it was not yet published in scientific literature.

  1. Phase Transitions of an Epidemic Spreading Model in Small-World Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUA Da-Yin; GAO Ke

    2011-01-01

    We propose a modified susceptible-infected-refractory-susceptible (SIRS) model to investigate the global oscillations of the epidemic spreading in Watts-Strogatz (WS) small-world networks. It is found that when an individual immunity does not change or decays slowly in an immune period, the system can exhibit complex transition from an infecting stationary state to a large amplitude sustained oscillation or an absorbing state with no infection. When the immunity decays rapidly in the immune period, the transition to the global oscillation disappears and there is no oscillation. Furthermore, based on the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and the phase diagram, it is disclosed that a long immunity period takes an important role in the emergence of the global oscillation in small-world networks.

  2. Characterizing the point spread function of retinal OCT devices with a model eye-based phantom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Anant; Connors, Megan; Beylin, Alexander; Liang, Chia-Pin; Barton, David; Chen, Yu; Drezek, Rebekah A; Pfefer, T Joshua

    2012-05-01

    We have designed, fabricated, and tested a nanoparticle-embedded phantom (NEP) incorporated into a model eye in order to characterize the point spread function (PSF) of retinal optical coherence tomography (OCT) devices in three dimensions under realistic imaging conditions. The NEP comprises a sparse distribution of highly backscattering silica-gold nanoshells embedded in a transparent UV-curing epoxy. The commercially-available model eye replicates the key optical structures and focusing power of the human eye. We imaged the model eye-NEP combination with a research-grade spectral domain OCT system designed for in vivo retinal imaging and quantified the lateral and axial PSF dimensions across the field of view in the OCT images. We also imaged the model eye-NEP in a clinical OCT system. Subtle features in the PSF and its dimensions were consistent with independent measurements of lateral and axial resolution. This model eye-based phantom can provide retinal OCT device developers and users a means to rapidly, objectively, and consistently assess the PSF, a fundamental imaging performance metric.

  3. Modeling Fire Emissions from Multiple Land Use Transitions in Southern Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, D. C.; van der Werf, G. R.; Defries, R. S.; Giglio, L.; Randerson, J. T.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.

    2008-12-01

    Fires for deforestation and other land cover changes in southern Amazonia are an uncertain but significant source of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Recent expansion of mechanized cropland in the region has increased the rates, clearing sizes, and combustion completeness of forest and Cerrado conversion compared to previous deforestation for cattle ranching. To more accurately quantify the influence of agricultural intensification on carbon emissions, we developed a high-resolution (250 m) model of DEforestation CArbon Fluxes (DECAF). DECAF estimates variations in forest and Cerrado biomass based on time series of MODIS NDVI and explicitly tracks the duration and combustion completeness of new deforestation as a function of post-clearing vegetation phenology and MODIS-based fire frequency. In our model runs for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, we quantified the contribution of fires for deforestation, conversion of pasture and Cerrado to mechanized cropland, and pasture maintenance to total fire emissions under low, middle, and high emissions scenarios. During 2001-2005, carbon losses from all types of deforestation were 48-82 Tg per year (mean = 67 Tg C), representing approximately 74% of annual fire emissions in the study region. Cropland expansion in non-forest areas contributed 19% of estimated fire emissions, while maintenance fires in pasture and Cerrado land cover types averaged 7% of all fire emissions during 2001-2005. Conversion of forest to other land uses often takes more than one year, and part of the biomass that was not burned in the dry season following deforestation burned in consecutive years. This led to a partial decoupling of annual deforestation rates and fire emissions, and lowered interannual variability in fire emissions. In total, DECAF-based emissions for Mato Grosso represent 1/3 of estimated fire emissions for all of southern hemisphere South America during this period. Our results demonstrate how DECAF can be used to model

  4. A Direct-Fire Trajectory Model for Supersonic, Transonic, and Subsonic Projectile Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    motions of the projectile about the trajectory due to the angular motion of the projectile . For a stable projectile , these motions are typically small...A Direct-Fire Trajectory Model for Supersonic, Transonic, and Subsonic Projectile Flight by Paul Weinacht ARL-TR-6998 July 2014...Direct-Fire Trajectory Model for Supersonic, Transonic, and Subsonic Projectile Flight Paul Weinacht Weapons and Materials Research Directorate, ARL

  5. Anthropogenic Carbon Uptake in the Southern Ocean: Investigating the Spread Across Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufour, C.; de Souza, G. F.; Frenger, I.; Morrison, A. K.; Sarmiento, J. L.

    2016-02-01

    Model- and data-based analyses indicate that up to 50% of the anthropogenic CO2 ab-sorbed by the ocean is taken up in the Southern Ocean south of 30 °S. Recent syntheses basedon CMIP5 models show that much of these models' spread in anthropogenic CO2 uptake isthe result of disagreement within the Southern Ocean. The reasons for this disagreementremain unclear. In this study, we hypothesize that the disagreement between CMIP5 modelsis mainly due to ocean circulation, and more speci cally to the upwelling of deep waters un-contaminated with anthropogenic CO2 at the Antarctic Divergence. To test this hypothesis,we divided the Southern Ocean into four provinces, determined by the underlying mechanismof anthropogenic CO2 uptake. The "upwelling" province is dominated by the upwelling ofdeep water uncontaminated with anthropogenic CO2; the "WBC" province is dominated bythe cooling of subtropical waters transported southward by Western Boundary Currents; the"mixed layer" province is dominated by a combination of the above two mechanisms andcoincides with winter deep mixed layers; finally the "convection" province is dominated byopen-ocean deep convection associated with polynyas. We explored the diff erent provincesacross a suite of climate models that consists of (1) a subset of CMIP5 models and (2) threeGFDL climate models which only diff er by the resolution of their ocean (1° , 0.25° and 0.1 °).The anthropogenic CO2 is calculated from the diff erence between an idealized climate changesimulation and a preindustrial control simulation. For each province, we compared the an-thropogenic CO2 sink across the models. We found that the upwelling province consistentlyshows the most intense sink across the models, and it is also where models tend to disagree themost. We also found that increasing resolution decreases the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 inthe upwelling province.

  6. Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation modelORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Yue; P. Ciais; P. Cadule; K. Thonicke; S. Archibald; B. Poulter; W. M. Hao; S. Hantson; F. Mouillot; P. Friedlingstein; F. Maignan; N. Viovy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE...

  7. Phasic firing in vasopressin cells: understanding its functional significance through computational models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duncan J MacGregor

    Full Text Available Vasopressin neurons, responding to input generated by osmotic pressure, use an intrinsic mechanism to shift from slow irregular firing to a distinct phasic pattern, consisting of long bursts and silences lasting tens of seconds. With increased input, bursts lengthen, eventually shifting to continuous firing. The phasic activity remains asynchronous across the cells and is not reflected in the population output signal. Here we have used a computational vasopressin neuron model to investigate the functional significance of the phasic firing pattern. We generated a concise model of the synaptic input driven spike firing mechanism that gives a close quantitative match to vasopressin neuron spike activity recorded in vivo, tested against endogenous activity and experimental interventions. The integrate-and-fire based model provides a simple physiological explanation of the phasic firing mechanism involving an activity-dependent slow depolarising afterpotential (DAP generated by a calcium-inactivated potassium leak current. This is modulated by the slower, opposing, action of activity-dependent dendritic dynorphin release, which inactivates the DAP, the opposing effects generating successive periods of bursting and silence. Model cells are not spontaneously active, but fire when perturbed by random perturbations mimicking synaptic input. We constructed one population of such phasic neurons, and another population of similar cells but which lacked the ability to fire phasically. We then studied how these two populations differed in the way that they encoded changes in afferent inputs. By comparison with the non-phasic population, the phasic population responds linearly to increases in tonic synaptic input. Non-phasic cells respond to transient elevations in synaptic input in a way that strongly depends on background activity levels, phasic cells in a way that is independent of background levels, and show a similar strong linearization of the response

  8. A new heat transfer model for coupled processes in fire simulations; Ein neues Modell zur Simulation gekoppelter Waermetransportprozesse bei Braenden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hohm, Volker [Ingenieurteam Trebes GmbH and Co. KG, Kiel (Germany); Hosser, Dietmar [Institut fuer Baustoffe, Massivbau und Brandschutz (iBMB), Technische Universitaet Braunschweig (Germany)

    2011-10-15

    The application of numerical fire simulations to validate and to evaluate the propagation of fire and smoke is already a fundamental part of the preparation of fire protection or safety concepts, especially in the field of performance-based designs. Against this background, the GFPA-guideline [10] has been developed in the recent years, which describes and classifies the available possibilities, approaches and models as well as provides suitable support for their application. Those programs and models respectively have to provide reliable results on the one hand and have to be efficient on the other hand. Hence, a heat transfer model for coupled processes in fire simulations was developed, which is able to represent the process of convective heat transfer between the gas phase and the solid phase for both horizontal and vertical, plane surfaces and in particular pipe and duct flows on the one hand and the process of heat conduction within multidimensional problems on the other hand physically correct. In addition to this the model is able to reproduce corresponding results using numerical simulation. The model was optimized both physically, by considering the specific fire effects and characteristics, and numerically, by selecting adequate numerical methods, for the integrated usage within numerical fire simulations. It has a modular design, so it is suitable for integration into current and future fire simulation codes. Additionally, a basis was established with and within this model for a later expansion with appropriate pyrolysis models. For that, an interface is provided with the embedded source term on the one hand and the required multidimensional temperature fields are determined precisely by the model on the other hand. A for the completion and demonstration concluding necessary integration of the developed model into a state-of-the-art fire simulation code was exemplarily and successfully performed. Finally, the model was successfully applied amongst

  9. [Effects of fire recurrence on fire behaviour in cork oak woodlands (Quercus suber L.) and Mediterranean shrublands over the last fifty years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffhauser, Alice; Pimont, François; Curt, Thomas; Cassagne, Nathalie; Dupuy, Jean-Luc; Tatoni, Thierry

    2015-12-01

    Past fire recurrence impacts the vegetation structure, and it is consequently hypothesized to alter its future fire behaviour. We examined the fire behaviour in shrubland-forest mosaics of southeastern France, which were organized along a range of fire frequency (0 to 3-4 fires along the past 50 years) and had different time intervals between fires. The mosaic was dominated by Quercus suber L. and Erica-Cistus shrubland communities. We described the vegetation structure through measurements of tree height, base of tree crown or shrub layer, mean diameter, cover, plant water content and bulk density. We used the physical model Firetec to simulate the fire behaviour. Fire intensity, fire spread, plant water content and biomass loss varied significantly according to fire recurrence and vegetation structure, mainly linked to the time since the last fire, then the number of fires. These results confirm that past fire recurrence affects future fire behaviour, with multi-layered vegetation (particularly high shrublands) producing more intense fires, contrary to submature Quercus woodlands that have not burnt since 1959 and that are unlikely to reburn. Further simulations, with more vegetation scenes according to shrub and canopy covers, will complete this study in order to discuss the fire propagation risk in heterogeneous vegetation, particularly in the Mediterranean area, with a view to a local management of these ecosystems.

  10. Cellular automaton modelling of lightning-induced and man made forest fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Krenn

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of forest fires on nature and civilisation is conflicting: on one hand, they play an irreplaceable role in the natural regeneration process, but on the other hand, they come within the major natural hazards in many regions. Their frequency-area distributions show power-law behaviour with scaling exponents α in a quite narrow range, relating wildfire research to the theoretical framework of self-organised criticality. Examples of self-organised critical behaviour can be found in computer simulations of simple cellular automaton models. The established self-organised critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is one of the most widespread models in this context. Despite its qualitative agreement with event-size statistics from nature, its applicability is still questioned. Apart from general concerns that the Drossel-Schwabl model apparently oversimplifies the complex nature of forest dynamics, it significantly overestimates the frequency of large fires. We present a modification of the model rules that distinguishes between lightning-induced and man made forest fires and enables a systematic increase of the scaling exponent α by approximately 1/3. In addition, combined simulations using both the original and the modified model rules predict a dependence of the overall event-size distribution on the ratio of lightning induced and man made fires as well as a splitting of their partial distributions. Lightning is identified as the dominant mechanism in the regime of the largest fires. The results are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database and suggest that lightning-induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modelling, hazard assessment and forest management.

  11. Cellular automaton modelling of lightning-induced and man made forest fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krenn, R.; Hergarten, S.

    2009-10-01

    The impact of forest fires on nature and civilisation is conflicting: on one hand, they play an irreplaceable role in the natural regeneration process, but on the other hand, they come within the major natural hazards in many regions. Their frequency-area distributions show power-law behaviour with scaling exponents α in a quite narrow range, relating wildfire research to the theoretical framework of self-organised criticality. Examples of self-organised critical behaviour can be found in computer simulations of simple cellular automaton models. The established self-organised critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is one of the most widespread models in this context. Despite its qualitative agreement with event-size statistics from nature, its applicability is still questioned. Apart from general concerns that the Drossel-Schwabl model apparently oversimplifies the complex nature of forest dynamics, it significantly overestimates the frequency of large fires. We present a modification of the model rules that distinguishes between lightning-induced and man made forest fires and enables a systematic increase of the scaling exponent α by approximately 1/3. In addition, combined simulations using both the original and the modified model rules predict a dependence of the overall event-size distribution on the ratio of lightning induced and man made fires as well as a splitting of their partial distributions. Lightning is identified as the dominant mechanism in the regime of the largest fires. The results are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database and suggest that lightning-induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modelling, hazard assessment and forest management.

  12. Linear Modeling and Evaluation of Controls on Flow Response in Western Post-Fire Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxe, S.; Hogue, T. S.; Hay, L.

    2015-12-01

    This research investigates the impact of wildfires on watershed flow regimes throughout the western United States, specifically focusing on evaluation of fire events within specified subregions and determination of the impact of climate and geophysical variables in post-fire flow response. Fire events were collected through federal and state-level databases and streamflow data were collected from U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. 263 watersheds were identified with at least 10 years of continuous pre-fire daily streamflow records and 5 years of continuous post-fire daily flow records. For each watershed, percent changes in runoff ratio (RO), annual seven day low-flows (7Q2) and annual seven day high-flows (7Q10) were calculated from pre- to post-fire. Numerous independent variables were identified for each watershed and fire event, including topographic, land cover, climate, burn severity, and soils data. The national watersheds were divided into five regions through K-clustering and a lasso linear regression model, applying the Leave-One-Out calibration method, was calculated for each region. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) was used to determine the accuracy of the resulting models. The regions encompassing the United States along and west of the Rocky Mountains, excluding the coastal watersheds, produced the most accurate linear models. The Pacific coast region models produced poor and inconsistent results, indicating that the regions need to be further subdivided. Presently, RO and HF response variables appear to be more easily modeled than LF. Results of linear regression modeling showed varying importance of watershed and fire event variables, with conflicting correlation between land cover types and soil types by region. The addition of further independent variables and constriction of current variables based on correlation indicators is ongoing and should allow for more accurate linear regression modeling.

  13. Computational model of cerebral blood flow redistribution during cortical spreading depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verisokin, Andrey Y.; Verveyko, Darya V.; Postnov, Dmitry E.

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades modelling studies on cortical spreading depression (CSD) and migraine waves successfully contributed to formation of modern view on these fundamental phenomena of brain physiology. However, due to the extreme complexity of object under study (brain cortex) and the diversity of involved physiological pathways, the development of new mathematical models of CSD is still a very relevant and challenging research problem. In our study we follow the functional modelling approach aimed to map the action of known physiological pathways to the specific nonlinear mechanisms that govern formation and evolution of CSD wave patterns. Specifically, we address the role of cerebral blood flow (CBF) redistribution that is caused by excessive neuronal activity by means of neurovascular coupling and mediates a spatial pattern of oxygen and glucose delivery. This in turn changes the local metabolic status of neural tissue. To build the model we simplify the web of known cell-to-cell interactions within a neurovascular unit by selecting the most relevant ones, such as local neuron-induced elevation of extracellular potassium concentration and biphasic response of arteriole radius. We propose the lumped description of distance-dependent hemodynamic coupling that fits the most recent experimental findings.

  14. Variational Approach to Modeling Droplet Spreading/Recoiling and Comparison with Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Manish

    2005-11-01

    The dynamics of droplet spreading and recoiling on a flat substrate is modeled through the variational approach, based on the work of Kim and Chun (2001). The geometry of the droplet after impact is modeled separately as either a cylinder or a truncated sphere. The effect of variation of dynamic contact angle with contact line velocity is included. The molecular kinetic theory by Blake and Haynes (1969), and the hydrodynamic theory by Cox (1998) have been adopted to model wetting dynamics. Systematic parameter studies are carried out to demonstrate the effect of substrate surface energy, liquid surface tension and other rheological properties. The droplet wetting and dewetting dynamics is observed to be very sensitive to the specific dynamic contact angle relationship. The parametric values are tuned to match the experimental data, thus produc