WorldWideScience

Sample records for financial price fluctuations

  1. Hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Ya-Chun; Cai, Shi-Min; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2012-01-01

    The financial market and turbulence have been broadly compared on account of the same quantitative methods and several common stylized facts they share. In this paper, the She–Leveque (SL) hierarchy, proposed to explain the anomalous scaling exponents deviating from Kolmogorov monofractal scaling of the velocity fluctuation in fluid turbulence, is applied to study and quantify the hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets. We therefore observed certain interesting results: (i) the hierarchical structure related to multifractal scaling generally presents in all the stock price fluctuations we investigated. (ii) The quantitatively statistical parameters that describe SL hierarchy are different between developed financial markets and emerging ones, distinctively. (iii) For the high-frequency stock price fluctuation, the hierarchical structure varies with different time periods. All these results provide a novel analogy in turbulence and financial market dynamics and an insight to deeply understand multifractality in financial markets. (paper)

  2. On the scaling of the distribution of daily price fluctuations in the Mexican financial market index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonso, Léster; Mansilla, Ricardo; Terrero-Escalante, César A.

    2012-05-01

    In this paper, a statistical analysis of log-return fluctuations of the IPC, the Mexican Stock Market Index is presented. A sample of daily data covering the period from 04/09/2000-04/09/2010 was analyzed, and fitted to different distributions. Tests of the goodness of fit were performed in order to quantitatively asses the quality of the estimation. Special attention was paid to the impact of the size of the sample on the estimated decay of the distributions tail. In this study a forceful rejection of normality was obtained. On the other hand, the null hypothesis that the log-fluctuations are fitted to a α-stable Lévy distribution cannot be rejected at the 5% significance level.

  3. Mesoscopic Community Structure of Financial Markets Revealed by Price and Sign Fluctuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almog, Assaf; Besamusca, Ferry; MacMahon, Mel; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2015-01-01

    The mesoscopic organization of complex systems, from financial markets to the brain, is an intermediate between the microscopic dynamics of individual units (stocks or neurons, in the mentioned cases), and the macroscopic dynamics of the system as a whole. The organization is determined by "communities" of units whose dynamics, represented by time series of activity, is more strongly correlated internally than with the rest of the system. Recent studies have shown that the binary projections of various financial and neural time series exhibit nontrivial dynamical features that resemble those of the original data. This implies that a significant piece of information is encoded into the binary projection (i.e. the sign) of such increments. Here, we explore whether the binary signatures of multiple time series can replicate the same complex community organization of the financial market, as the original weighted time series. We adopt a method that has been specifically designed to detect communities from cross-correlation matrices of time series data. Our analysis shows that the simpler binary representation leads to a community structure that is almost identical with that obtained using the full weighted representation. These results confirm that binary projections of financial time series contain significant structural information.

  4. Mesoscopic Community Structure of Financial Markets Revealed by Price and Sign Fluctuations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assaf Almog

    Full Text Available The mesoscopic organization of complex systems, from financial markets to the brain, is an intermediate between the microscopic dynamics of individual units (stocks or neurons, in the mentioned cases, and the macroscopic dynamics of the system as a whole. The organization is determined by "communities" of units whose dynamics, represented by time series of activity, is more strongly correlated internally than with the rest of the system. Recent studies have shown that the binary projections of various financial and neural time series exhibit nontrivial dynamical features that resemble those of the original data. This implies that a significant piece of information is encoded into the binary projection (i.e. the sign of such increments. Here, we explore whether the binary signatures of multiple time series can replicate the same complex community organization of the financial market, as the original weighted time series. We adopt a method that has been specifically designed to detect communities from cross-correlation matrices of time series data. Our analysis shows that the simpler binary representation leads to a community structure that is almost identical with that obtained using the full weighted representation. These results confirm that binary projections of financial time series contain significant structural information.

  5. Understanding international commodity price fluctuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arezki, Rabah; Loungani, Prakash; van der Ploeg, Rick; Venables, Anthony J.

    An overview is provided of recent work on commodity prices, focusing on three themes: (i) "financialization" of commodity markets--commodities being considered by financial investors as a distinct asset class, (ii) trends and forecasts of commodity prices, and (iii) fracking-a shorthand for the

  6. Fluctuation behaviors of financial return volatility duration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun; Lu, Yunfan

    2016-04-01

    It is of significantly crucial to understand the return volatility of financial markets because it helps to quantify the investment risk, optimize the portfolio, and provide a key input of option pricing models. The characteristics of isolated high volatility events above certain threshold in price fluctuations and the distributions of return intervals between these events arouse great interest in financial research. In the present work, we introduce a new concept of daily return volatility duration, which is defined as the shortest passage time when the future volatility intensity is above or below the current volatility intensity (without predefining a threshold). The statistical properties of the daily return volatility durations for seven representative stock indices from the world financial markets are investigated. Some useful and interesting empirical results of these volatility duration series about the probability distributions, memory effects and multifractal properties are obtained. These results also show that the proposed stock volatility series analysis is a meaningful and beneficial trial.

  7. Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Walter Labys

    2005-01-01

    Commodity prices again! The twentieth century has only been the latest spectator to the impacts and importance of commodity price fluctuations. It is reasonably well known that commodity price records have come down to us from the ancient civilizations of India, Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece and Rome. Earlier in the century, formal research began on the relationships between agricultural demand, supply and prices in a market context. This research not only evolved in sophistication but extended ...

  8. Do financial investors affect the price of wheat?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Girardi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available It is widely debated whether financial speculation was a significant force behind recent food price fluctuations. As a matter of fact, during the 2000s agricultural commodity derivatives markets were flooded by a ‘wall of money’ coming from financial investors. In agricultural exchanges, the greatest part of this huge financial inflow came from index traders, i.e. financial actors that follow a passive strategy of tracking a commodity index. In this article I present new empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that financial investments have affected wheat price dynamics in recent years. In particular, I focus on Hard Red Winter (HRW wheat. Since 2007 HRW wheat price fluctuations have been positively related to US stock market returns and oil price movements. These correlations appear to be determined by commodity index traders, since both these relationships proved to be spurious, with the most tracked commodity index as the confounding variable.

  9. Capital Gains Taxation and House Price Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuest, Clemens; Nielsen, Søren Bo

    2004-01-01

    Recent years have seen large swings in house prices in many countries. Motivated by housing price variations, proposals for taxing capital gains on housing have repeatedly been put forth. The idea seems to be that such taxes would curb the redistribution occurring between those owning houses...... and those trying to get into the market for owner-occupied housing. Our paper shows that at least in simple settings, a tax on real capital gains on housing will only lead to even bigger price swings and will not be able to redistribute between people appearing on either side of the housing market.......Keywords: capital gains tax, housing market, price fluctuationsJEL-Classification: H23, H24, R 31.Addresses:...

  10. Pricing of Fluctuations in Electricity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Tsitsiklis, John N.; Xu, Yunjian

    2012-01-01

    In an electric power system, demand fluctuations may result in significant ancillary cost to suppliers. Furthermore, in the near future, deep penetration of volatile renewable electricity generation is expected to exacerbate the variability of demand on conventional thermal generating units. We address this issue by explicitly modeling the ancillary cost associated with demand variability. We argue that a time-varying price equal to the suppliers' instantaneous marginal cost may not achieve s...

  11. Financial instrument pricing using C++

    CERN Document Server

    Duffy, Daniel J

    2004-01-01

    One of the best languages for the development of financial engineering and instrument pricing applications is C++. This book has several features that allow developers to write robust, flexible and extensible software systems. The book is an ANSI/ISO standard, fully object-oriented and interfaces with many third-party applications. It has support for templates and generic programming, massive reusability using templates (?write once?) and support for legacy C applications. In this book, author Daniel J. Duffy brings C++ to the next level by applying it to the design and implementation of class

  12. Financial Constraints and Nominal Price Rigidities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Menno, Dominik Francesco; Balleer, Almut; Hristov, Nikolay

    This paper investigates how financial market imperfections and the frequency of price adjustment interact. Based on new firm-level evidence for Germany, we document that financially constrained firms adjust prices more often than their unconstrained counterparts, both upwards and downwards. We show...... that these empirical patterns are consistent with a partial equilibrium menu-cost model with a working capital constraint. We then use the model to show how the presence of financial frictions changes profits and the price distribution of firms compared to a model without financial frictions. Our results suggest...... that tighter financial constraints are associated with higher nominal rigidities, higher prices and lower output. Moreover, in response to aggregate shocks, aggregate price rigidity moves substantially, the response of inflation is dampened, while output reacts more in the presence of financial frictions...

  13. Environmental factors influencing fluctuation of share prices on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental factors influencing fluctuation of share prices on Nigeria stock exchange market. ... What are these environmental variables that affect the fluctuation of share prices in Nigeria? ... The results show inflation, money supply, total deficits index of industrial production, interest rate and GDP influence stock prices.

  14. Dynamic Evolution Analysis of Stock Price Fluctuation and Its Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhua Xu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies a simple dynamical system of stock price fluctuation time series based on the rule of stock market. When the stock price fluctuation system is disturbed by external excitations, the system exhibits obviously chaotic phenomena, and its basic dynamic properties are analyzed. At the same time, a new fixed-time convergence theorem is proposed for achieving fixed-time control of stock price fluctuation system. Finally, the effectiveness of the method is verified by numerical simulation.

  15. Fluctuation traits of Litchi wholesale price in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F. F.; Qi, W. E.; Ouyang, X.

    2017-07-01

    This paper chose the wholesale price of litchi as research object based on the daily data of 11 main sales markets in China -- Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hefei, Jiaxing, Nanjing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Changsha, Zhengzhou and Chongqing from April 1, 2012 to September 30, 2016. After analyzing the fluctuation characteristics with BP filter method and H-P filter method, and the fluctuation trends of litchi wholesale price in China obtained by BP filter are roughly consistent with the trends obtained by H-P filter. The main conclusions are as follows: there is strong cyclicality in the fluctuation of litchi wholesale price; the period of fluctuations of litchi wholesale prices are not repeatable; litchi wholesale price fluctuates asymmetrically in one fluctuation cycle.

  16. Monte Carlo methods for pricing financial options

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    traded by financial institutions, fund managers and corporate treasurers in the over the counter market. Options can often be ..... (under which discounted security price processes are martingales). This corresponds to ..... However, it requires explicit knowledge of option prices at all states of the Markov process and hence is ...

  17. Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

    2003-12-01

    Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

  18. The effects of the vegetable prices insurance on the fluctuation of price: Based on Shanghai evidences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Chunhong; Li, Huishang; Hao, Shuai; Zhang, Xuebiao; Yang, Wei

    2017-10-01

    Taking Shanghai as an example, the influence of the vegetable price insurance on the fluctuation of prices was analyzed in the article. It was found that the sequence of seasonal fluctuations characteristics of leafy vegetable prices was changed by the vegetable cost-price insurance, the period of price fluctuation was elongated from 12-to-18 months to 37 months, and the influence of random factors on the price fluctuations was reduced in some degree. There was still great space for innovation of the vegetable prices insurance system in Shanghai. Some countermeasures would be suggested to develop the insurance system to better to play the role of insurance and promote the market running more smoothly in Shanghai such as prolonging the insurance cycle, improving the price information monitoring mechanism and innovating income insurance products and so on.

  19. Correlations of stock price fluctuations under multi-scale and multi-threshold scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, Guo; Li, Huajiao; Feng, Sida; Liu, Xueyong; Jiang, Meihui

    2018-01-01

    The multi-scale method is widely used in analyzing time series of financial markets and it can provide market information for different economic entities who focus on different periods. Through constructing multi-scale networks of price fluctuation correlation in the stock market, we can detect the topological relationship between each time series. Previous research has not addressed the problem that the original fluctuation correlation networks are fully connected networks and more information exists within these networks that is currently being utilized. Here we use listed coal companies as a case study. First, we decompose the original stock price fluctuation series into different time scales. Second, we construct the stock price fluctuation correlation networks at different time scales. Third, we delete the edges of the network based on thresholds and analyze the network indicators. Through combining the multi-scale method with the multi-threshold method, we bring to light the implicit information of fully connected networks.

  20. Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guthrie, Graeme; Videbeck, Steen

    2007-01-01

    We reveal properties of electricity spot prices that cannot be captured by the statistical models, commonly used to model financial asset prices, that are increasingly used to model electricity prices. Using more than eight years of half-hourly spot price data from the New Zealand Electricity Market, we find that the half-hourly trading periods fall naturally into five groups corresponding to the overnight off-peak, the morning peak, daytime off-peak, evening peak, and evening off-peak. The prices in different trading periods within each group are highly correlated with each other, yet the correlations between prices in different groups are lower. Models, adopted from the modeling of security prices, that are currently applied to electricity spot prices are incapable of capturing this behavior. We use a periodic autoregression to model prices instead, showing that shocks in the peak periods are larger and less persistent than those in off-peak periods, and that they often reappear in the following peak period. In contrast, shocks in the off-peak periods are smaller, more persistent, and die out (perhaps temporarily) during the peak periods. Current approaches to modeling spot prices cannot capture this behavior either. (author)

  1. Oil price fluctuations and the Nigerian economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayadi, O.F.

    2005-01-01

    The single most important issue confronting a growing number of world economies today is the price of oil and its attendant consequences on economic output. Several studies have taken the approach of Hamilton (1983) in investigating the effect of oil price shocks on levels of gross domestic product. The focus of this paper is primarily on the relationship between oil price changes and economic development via industrial production. A vector auto regression model is employed on some macroeconomic variables from 1980 through 2004. The results indicate that oil price changes affect real exchange rates, which, in turn, affect industrial production. However, this indirect effect of oil prices on industrial production is not statistically significant. Therefore, the implication of the results presented in this paper is that an increase in oil prices does not lead to an increase in industrial production in Nigeria. (author)

  2. Financial structure signalling to auditors` pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etumudon Ndidi ASIEN

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines capital structure signalling to auditors. Financial structure has adverse selection that can negatively affect auditors’ perception of firm value or risk, which can lead the auditor to charge high price. We expect firms’ financial structure to positively relate with auditors’ pricing. Using panel data analysis methodology to analyse data of 311 firm-year observations of non-finance firms covering the period 2012-2015, pooled OLS regression results suggest that financial structure is positively related to auditors’ price. We find that equity, but not debt, is significantly related to auditors’ price. These results hold after controlling for auditor type. The positive relations suggest lower perceptions of firm value (hence high risk by auditors, thereby making firms to pay higher auditors’ price. This suggests that auditors penalise equity financed firms more than debt financed firms, probably because auditors interpret equity financing as firms’ inability to raise debt. Based on the findings, we recommend that auditors should monitor the capital structure of their clients to guide them in pricing their services. We also recommend that corporate finance managers should rebalance their firms’ capital structure cognisant of the fact that it signals to auditors.

  3. Detecting price manipulation in the financial market

    OpenAIRE

    Cao, Yi; Li, Yuhua; Coleman, Sonya; Belatreche, Ammar; McGinnity, T. M.

    2014-01-01

    Market abuse has attracted much attention from financial regulators around the world but it is difficult to fully prevent. One of the reasons is the lack of thoroughly studies of the market abuse strategies and the corresponding effective market abuse approaches. In this paper, the strategies of reported price manipulation cases are analysed as well as the related empirical studies. A transformation is then defined to convert the time-varying financial trading data into pseudo-stationary time...

  4. House price fluctuations and the business cycle dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Anselin, Luc

    This paper investigates the impact of house price movements on output in a space-time dynamic framework. The transmission of house price fluctuations to the macroeconomy both across space and over time is explicitly considered through spatial econometric modeling techniques. Using 373 metropolita...

  5. Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youngho Chang; Joonfong Wong

    2003-01-01

    This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal. Both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and unemployment rates. Further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding: the declining trend of oil intensity in Singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the Singapore's expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal GDP. This study identifies, however, that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small. (Author)

  6. Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang Youngho; Wong, Joon Fong

    2003-01-01

    This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal. Both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and unemployment rates. Further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding: the declining trend of oil intensity in Singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the Singapore's expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal GDP. This study identifies, however, that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small

  7. The equity price channel in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions and banking

    OpenAIRE

    Hylton Hollander; Guangling Liu

    2013-01-01

    This paper studies the role of the equity price channel in business cycle fluctuations, and highlights the equity price channel as a different aspect to general equilibrium models with financial frictions and, as a result, emphasizes the systemic influence of financial markets on the real economy. We develop a canonical New-Keynesian DSGE model with a tractable role for the equity market in banking, entrepreneur and household economic activities. The model is estimated with Bayesian technique...

  8. Risk hedging against the fuel price fluctuation in energy service business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bannai, Masaaki; Tomita, Yasushi; Ishida, Yasushi; Miyazaki, Takahiko; Akisawa, Atsushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

    2007-01-01

    Energy service business, or energy service company (ESCO), is expanding among industrial users as a means of energy saving. The ESCO business normally tends to become a long-term operation. During the operation, fluctuations of fuel and electricity costs significantly impact on the stability of the profit from ESCO business. Therefore, it is essential to reduce the risk of fuel and electricity cost fluctuations. Generally, a transaction called ''financial derivative'' is used as a measure of hedging against the fuel price fluctuation. In the case of ESCO business, it is necessary to manage the risk of both electricity and fuel price fluctuations because the variation in electricity price strongly affects the profit from ESCO as that in fuel price does. In this paper, the stabilization of the ESCO profit using financial derivatives was discussed by quantitative analyses of the actual data from existing plants. Case studies revealed that the appropriate volume of the fuel derivative implementation was less than a half of the fuel consumption at the ESCO facilities, and it ranged from 5% to 50%. (author)

  9. Entropy-based financial asset pricing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihály Ormos

    Full Text Available We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.

  10. Price and Profit Optimization for Financial Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina Bolancé

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Prospective customers of financial and insurance products can be targeted based on the profit the provider expects to earn from them. We present a model for individual expected profit and two alternatives for calculating optimal personalized prices that maximize the expected profit. For one of these alternatives, we obtain a closed-form expression for the price offered to each prospective customer; for the other, we need to use a numerical approximation. In both approaches, the profits generated by prospective customers are not immediately observed, given that the products sold by these companies have a risk component. We assume that willingness to pay is heterogeneous and apply our methodology using real data from a European insurance company. Our study indicates that a substantial boost in profits can be expected when applying the simplest optimal pricing method proposed.

  11. Entropy-based financial asset pricing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

    2014-01-01

    We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.

  12. Oil price fluctuations and Its effect on GDP growth

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalez , Aaron; Nabiyev, Sherzod

    2009-01-01

    During the year of 2008, the world has experienced historically high oil prices reaching an all time high of 147 USD per barrel in midsummer. The extreme volatility of what is consider the number one source of energy reopened discussions about energy sustainability and the plausible effects of an oil shock in the global economy.   How reliable oil price is as an economic variable predicting fluctuations in GDP growth remains controversial. Several models have been developed by scholars target...

  13. Essays in financial transmission rights pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, Barry

    This work examines issues in the pricing of financial transmission rights in the PJM market region. The US federal government is advocating the creation of large-scale, not-for-profit regional transmission organizations to increase the efficiency of the transmission of electricity. As a non-profit entity, PJM needs to allocate excess revenues collected as congestion rents, and the participants in the transmission markets need to be able to hedge their exposure to congestion rents. For these purposes, PJM has developed an instrument known as the financial transmission right (FTR). This research, utilizing a new data set assembled by the author, looks at two aspects of the FTR market. The first chapter examines the problem of forecasting congestion in a transmission grid. In the PJM FTR system firms bid in a competitive auction for FTRs that cover a period of one month. The auctions take place in the middle of the previous month; therefore firms have to forecast congestion rents for the period two to six weeks after the auction. The common methods of forecasting congestion are either time-series models or full-information engineering studies. In this research, the author develops a forecasting system that is more economically grounded than a simple time-series model, but requires less information than an engineering model. This method is based upon the arbitrage-cost methodology, whereby congesting is calculated as the difference of two non-observable variables: the transmission price difference that would exist in the total absence of transmission capacity between two nodes, and the ability of the existing transmission to reduced that price difference. If the ability to reduce the price difference is greater than the price difference, then the cost of electricity at each node will be the same, and congestion rent will be zero. If transmission capacity limits are binding on the flow of power, then a price difference persists and congestion rents exist. Three

  14. Incomplete Financial Markets and Jumps in Asset Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crès, Hervé; Markeprand, Tobias Ejnar; Tvede, Mich

    A dynamic pure-exchange general equilibrium model with uncertainty is studied. Fundamentals are supposed to depend continuously on states of nature. It is shown that: 1. if financial markets are complete, then asset prices vary continuously with states of nature, and; 2. if financial markets...... are incomplete, jumps in asset prices may be unavoidable. Consequently incomplete financial markets may increase volatility in asset prices significantly....

  15. Research on the trend of Yen exchange rate and international crude oil price fluctuation affected by Japan’s earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoguang Li

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Whether this earthquake would become a turning point of the high oil price and whether it would have big impact on yen exchange rate are two issues to be discussed in this paper.Design/methodology/approach: To analyze deeply the internal relations between changes in yen exchange rate caused by Japan’s earthquake and price fluctuation of international crude oil, this research chooses middle rate of yen exchange rate during the 45 days around Japan’s earthquake and price data of international crude oil to do an empirical study, uses VAR model and HP trend decomposition to estimate the mutual effect of yen exchange rate change and price fluctuation of international crude oil in this period.Findings: It has been found in the empirical study with VAR model and HP filter decomposition model on the yen exchange rate and the international crude oil price fluctuation during 45 days around Japan’s earthquake that: the fluctuation of yen exchange rate around the earthquake is one of the main reasons for the drastic fluctuation of international crude oil price in that period. The fluctuation of international crude oil price directly triggered by yen exchange rate occupies 13.54% of its total variance. There is a long-term interactive relationship between yen exchange rate and international crude oil price. The upward trend of international crude oil price after the earthquake was obvious, while yen exchange rate remained relatively stable after the earthquake.Originality/value: As economic globalization goes deeper, the influence of natural disasters on international financial market and world economy will become more and more obvious. It has a great revelatory meaning to studying further each kind of natural disaster’s impacts on international financial market and world economics.

  16. A theory of power-law distributions in financial market fluctuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabaix, Xavier; Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran; Plerou, Vasiliki; Stanley, H Eugene

    2003-05-15

    Insights into the dynamics of a complex system are often gained by focusing on large fluctuations. For the financial system, huge databases now exist that facilitate the analysis of large fluctuations and the characterization of their statistical behaviour. Power laws appear to describe histograms of relevant financial fluctuations, such as fluctuations in stock price, trading volume and the number of trades. Surprisingly, the exponents that characterize these power laws are similar for different types and sizes of markets, for different market trends and even for different countries--suggesting that a generic theoretical basis may underlie these phenomena. Here we propose a model, based on a plausible set of assumptions, which provides an explanation for these empirical power laws. Our model is based on the hypothesis that large movements in stock market activity arise from the trades of large participants. Starting from an empirical characterization of the size distribution of those large market participants (mutual funds), we show that the power laws observed in financial data arise when the trading behaviour is performed in an optimal way. Our model additionally explains certain striking empirical regularities that describe the relationship between large fluctuations in prices, trading volume and the number of trades.

  17. Understanding Financial Fluctuations and Their Relation to Macroeconomic Stability

    OpenAIRE

    Nora Guarata; Carolina Pagliacci

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines how financial fluctuations and macroeconomic stability interact in the case of Venezuela, acknowledging that financial conditions deteriorating the macroeconomic environment can arise with both good and bad macroeconomic performance. An empirical methodology is provided that constructs two indexes, which are fully interpretable and are constructed with a minimum set of assumptions applied to a large number of financial time series. Structural interpretation of indexes is p...

  18. Structural model for fluctuations in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Kartik; Khedair, Jonathan; Kühn, Reimer

    2018-05-01

    In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market which takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian motion model. It is formally equivalent to a model describing the stochastic dynamics of a system of analog neurons, which is expected to exhibit glassy properties and thus many metastable states in a large portion of its parameter space. We perform a generating functional analysis, introducing a slow driving of the dynamics to mimic the effect of slowly varying macroeconomic conditions. Distributions of asset returns over various time separations are evaluated analytically and are found to be fat-tailed in a manner broadly in line with empirical observations. Our model also allows us to identify collective, interaction-mediated properties of pricing distributions and it predicts pricing distributions which are significantly broader than their noninteracting counterparts, if interactions between prices in the model contain a ferromagnetic bias. Using simulations, we are able to substantiate one of the main hypotheses underlying the original modeling, viz., that the phenomenon of volatility clustering can be rationalized in terms of an interplay between the dynamics within metastable states and the dynamics of occasional transitions between them.

  19. Measuring the Behavioral Component of Financial Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caporin, Massimiliano; Corazzini, Luca; Costola, Michele

    We study the evolution of the behavioral component of the financial market by estimating a Bayesian mixture model in which two types of investors coexist: one rational, with standard subjective expected utility theory (SEUT) preferences, and one behavioral, endowed with an S-shaped utility function...... and the behavioral choices can be estimated by using a criterion function. The estimated parameter can be interpreted as an endogenous market sentiment index. This is confirmed by a number of checks controlling for the correlation of our endogenous index with measures of (implied) financial volatility, market...... sentiments and financial stress. Our results confirm the existence of a significant behavioral component that reaches its peaks during periods of recession. Moreover, after controlling for a number of covariates, we observe a significant correlation between the estimated behavioral component and the S&P 500...

  20. Lectures on financial mathematics discrete asset pricing

    CERN Document Server

    Anderson, Greg

    2010-01-01

    This is a short book on the fundamental concepts of the no-arbitrage theory of pricing financial derivatives. Its scope is limited to the general discrete setting of models for which the set of possible states is finite and so is the set of possible trading times--this includes the popular binomial tree model. This setting has the advantage of being fairly general while not requiring a sophisticated understanding of analysis at the graduate level. Topics include understanding the several variants of "arbitrage", the fundamental theorems of asset pricing in terms of martingale measures, and applications to forwards and futures. The authors' motivation is to present the material in a way that clarifies as much as possible why the often confusing basic facts are true. Therefore the ideas are organized from a mathematical point of view with the emphasis on understanding exactly what is under the hood and how it works. Every effort is made to include complete explanations and proofs, and the reader is encouraged t...

  1. Statoil`s exposure to oil price fluctuations: An analysis on investment level and stock price

    OpenAIRE

    Nåmdal, Synne Meling; Meling, Kristine

    2015-01-01

    Master's thesis in Finance In this thesis an econometric analysis of Statoil’s investment level and stock return has been performed, with purpose of examine the affect that fluctuations in the price of crude oil has on these variables. The results revealed that crude oil prices have a significant impact on Statoil´s stock returns, due to the direct impact the crude oil price has on Statoil’s cash flows. The investment level does not seem to be affected by either of the variables in the ana...

  2. Statoil`s exposure to oil price fluctuations: An analysis on investment level and stock price

    OpenAIRE

    Nåmdal, Synne Meling; Meling, Kristine

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis an econometric analysis of Statoil’s investment level and stock return has been performed, with purpose of examine the affect that fluctuations in the price of crude oil has on these variables. The results revealed that crude oil prices have a significant impact on Statoil´s stock returns, due to the direct impact the crude oil price has on Statoil’s cash flows. The investment level does not seem to be affected by either of the variables in the analysis, and this could indicate...

  3. Imports, exports, and Alberta's transmission system impact on price fluctuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, K.

    2002-01-01

    The roles, responsibilities and objectives of ESBI, a private for-profit company, appointed by the Alberta Government to be the Independent Transmission Administrator in the province, is sketched, prior to a discussion of price volatility in electricity, Alberta interconnections, intertie issues, the economic theory and the reality impact on prices. Given that imports and exports constitute a relatively small proportion of total generation or load in Alberta, price volatility is considered to have been only minimally affected by imports/exports. In contrast, transmission constraints, i.e. the limits on physical capacity of the existing transmission system to accommodate all desired transactions, have significant impact on imports/exports. Factors underlying constraints and price volatility such as uncertainty of generation dispatch, leading to reduced interest to invest, which in turn leads to scarce capacity for imports/exports, and the actions required to reduce uncertainty and address other issues such as congestion management, tariff design and the creation of regional transmission organizations, are also discussed to provide further clarification of the issues. It is suggested that these and other related issues need to be resolved to provide the clarity around transmission access and the tools required to manage price fluctuations

  4. TRANSFER PRICING AS A TOOLFOR FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OFENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey S. Besfamilnyy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article outlines the basics of using transfer pricing methods applied to the financial analysis of the enterprise. It focuses on the application of transfer pricing methods not only over prices control between related organizations, but for analysis of the financial performance of companies. It proposes to use comparison of profitability of comparable companies during the reporting period. Shows an approach for the search and selection of comparable companies using information systems SPARKS or Bureau van Dijk. It analysis some examples in which the methodology is applicable transfer pricing as a tool of financial analysis.

  5. Traders' strategy with price feedbacks in financial market

    OpenAIRE

    Mizuno, Takayuki; Nakano, Tohur; Takayasu, Misako; Takayasu, Hideki

    2003-01-01

    We introduce an autoregressive-type model of prices in financial market taking into account the self-modulation effect. We find that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of past prices. These feedbacks are responsible for the slow diffusion in short times, apparent trends and power law distribution of price changes.

  6. Oil prices and financial stress: A volatility spillover analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban; Soytas, Ugur; Gupta, Rangan

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines whether there is a volatility transmission between oil prices and financial stress by means of the volatility spillover test. We employ WTI crude oil prices and Cleveland financial stress index for the period 1991–2014 and divide the sample into pre-crisis, in-crisis, and post-crisis periods due to the downward trend in oil price in 2008. The volatility model estimations indicate that oil prices and financial stress index are dominated by long-run volatility. The volatility spillover causality test supports evidence on risk transfer from oil prices to financial stress before the crisis and from financial stress to oil prices after the crisis. The impulse response analysis shows that the volatility transmission pattern has similar dynamics before and after the crisis and is characterized by higher and long-lived effects during the crisis. Our results have implications for both policy makers and investors, and for future work. -- Highlights: •Volatility spillover between oil prices and financial stress index is examined. •Analysis is conducted for sub-periods: pre-crisis, in-crisis, and post-crisis •Oil prices spill on financial stress before the crisis, but spillover reversed after the crisis. •Volatility transmission pattern has similar dynamics before and after the crisis. •Implications for investors and policy makers are discussed

  7. Interacting price model and fluctuation behavior analysis from Lempel–Ziv complexity and multi-scale weighted-permutation entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Rui; Wang, Jun

    2016-01-01

    A financial price model is developed based on the voter interacting system in this work. The Lempel–Ziv complexity is introduced to analyze the complex behaviors of the stock market. Some stock market stylized facts including fat tails, absence of autocorrelation and volatility clustering are investigated for the proposed price model firstly. Then the complexity of fluctuation behaviors of the real stock markets and the proposed price model are mainly explored by Lempel–Ziv complexity (LZC) analysis and multi-scale weighted-permutation entropy (MWPE) analysis. A series of LZC analyses of the returns and the absolute returns of daily closing prices and moving average prices are performed. Moreover, the complexity of the returns, the absolute returns and their corresponding intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) derived from the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with MWPE is also investigated. The numerical empirical study shows similar statistical and complex behaviors between the proposed price model and the real stock markets, which exhibits that the proposed model is feasible to some extent. - Highlights: • A financial price dynamical model is developed based on the voter interacting system. • Lempel–Ziv complexity is the firstly applied to investigate the stock market dynamics system. • MWPE is employed to explore the complexity fluctuation behaviors of the stock market. • Empirical results show the feasibility of the proposed financial model.

  8. Interacting price model and fluctuation behavior analysis from Lempel–Ziv complexity and multi-scale weighted-permutation entropy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Rui, E-mail: lirui1401@bjtu.edu.cn; Wang, Jun

    2016-01-08

    A financial price model is developed based on the voter interacting system in this work. The Lempel–Ziv complexity is introduced to analyze the complex behaviors of the stock market. Some stock market stylized facts including fat tails, absence of autocorrelation and volatility clustering are investigated for the proposed price model firstly. Then the complexity of fluctuation behaviors of the real stock markets and the proposed price model are mainly explored by Lempel–Ziv complexity (LZC) analysis and multi-scale weighted-permutation entropy (MWPE) analysis. A series of LZC analyses of the returns and the absolute returns of daily closing prices and moving average prices are performed. Moreover, the complexity of the returns, the absolute returns and their corresponding intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) derived from the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with MWPE is also investigated. The numerical empirical study shows similar statistical and complex behaviors between the proposed price model and the real stock markets, which exhibits that the proposed model is feasible to some extent. - Highlights: • A financial price dynamical model is developed based on the voter interacting system. • Lempel–Ziv complexity is the firstly applied to investigate the stock market dynamics system. • MWPE is employed to explore the complexity fluctuation behaviors of the stock market. • Empirical results show the feasibility of the proposed financial model.

  9. Quantum computational finance: Monte Carlo pricing of financial derivatives

    OpenAIRE

    Rebentrost, Patrick; Gupt, Brajesh; Bromley, Thomas R.

    2018-01-01

    Financial derivatives are contracts that can have a complex payoff dependent upon underlying benchmark assets. In this work, we present a quantum algorithm for the Monte Carlo pricing of financial derivatives. We show how the relevant probability distributions can be prepared in quantum superposition, the payoff functions can be implemented via quantum circuits, and the price of financial derivatives can be extracted via quantum measurements. We show how the amplitude estimation algorithm can...

  10. Factors causing fluctuations in all milk price received by U.S. farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cropp, B.; Zijlstra, J.

    2007-01-01

    Milk prices received by U.S. dairy farmers have fluctuated considerably from one year to the next, particularly since the mid-1990s. The main factor for increased price fluctuation is a major change in U.S. dairy price support policy. This document will be part of the research report of the project

  11. Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Achi, Godswill U., E-mail: achigods@yahoo.com [Department of Mathematics, Abia State Polytechnic Aba, P.M.B. 7166, Aba, Abia State (Nigeria)

    2014-10-24

    The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing{sup 9} where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φ{sub x}(u) of X{sub t} we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.

  12. Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Achi, Godswill U.

    2014-01-01

    The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing 9 where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φ x (u) of X t we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices

  13. Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achi, Godswill U.

    2014-10-01

    The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing9 where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φx(u) of Xt we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.

  14. Pricing Strategy, Pricing Stability and Financial Condition in the Defense Aerospace Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Johnstone, Jeffrey Carl; Keavney, Patrick Daniel

    1987-01-01

    Approved for public release, distribution unlimited The purpose of this research is to determine if pricing strategy and pricing stability for products in the defense aerospace industry can be predicted based on a firm's financial condition. The sample for this research includes 17 contractors and 52 missile and aircraft programs. Two separate issues are addressed. The first issue concerns the relationship between financial condition and contractor pricing strategy. The second concerns the...

  15. Actuarial risk measures for financial derivative pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2008-01-01

    We present an axiomatic characterization of price measures that are superadditive and comonotonic additive for normally distributed random variables. The price representation derived involves a probability measure transform that is closely related to the Esscher transform, and we call it the

  16. Pricing and hedging in incomplete financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wurth, A.M.

    2009-01-01

    In the practical part, Chapter 4 considers numerical methods for indifference pricing in a stochastic volatility model. In Chapter 5, a feasible procedure is developed for calculating the CVaR price in unit-linked insurance products under an additional assumption. This assumption is relaxed in

  17. Financial planning and pricing strategy of NEC-AD (BG)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kynev, K.

    1994-01-01

    Methods for power pricing under market economy conditions are proposed from the point of view of financial planning. It is completely consistent with state regulation principle based on power supply costs. The main assumption is that instead of fixing prices for particular time periods, a long-term pricing strategy has to be developed. In this way, within the given macro- and micro-economical frames, certain strategical and tactical financial results can be achieved. The methods are worked out based on a real example. 13 tabs. (author)

  18. Interplay between endogenous and exogenous fluctuations in financial markets

    OpenAIRE

    Gontis, Vygintas

    2016-01-01

    We address microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, stochastic, modeling of the financial markets combining it with the exogenous noise. The interplay between the endogenous dynamics of agents and the exogenous noise is the primary mechanism responsible for the observed long-range dependence and statistical properties of high volatility return intervals. By exogenous noise we mean information flow or/and order flow fluctuations. Numerical results based on the proposed model reveal that the ...

  19. Coarse Thinking and Pricing a Financial Option

    OpenAIRE

    Siddiqi, Hammad

    2009-01-01

    Mullainathan et al [Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2008] present a formalization of the concept of coarse thinking in the context of a model of persuasion. The essential idea behind coarse thinking is that people put situations into categories and the values assigned to attributes in a given situation are affected by the values of corresponding attributes in other co-categorized situations. We derive a new option pricing formula based on the assumption that the market consists of coars...

  20. Market Makers' Supply and Pricing of Financial Market Liquidity

    OpenAIRE

    Shen, Pu; Starr, Ross M.

    2000-01-01

    This study models the bid-ask spread in financial markets as a function of asset price variability and order flow. The market-maker is characterized as passively accepting orders to buy and to sell a security at the market's prevailing price (plus or minus half the bid-ask spread). The bid-ask spread adjusts to cover market-makers' average costs. The bid-ask spread then varies positively with: the security's price volatility, the volatility of order flow, and the absolute value of the market-...

  1. Nonlinear Fluctuation Behavior of Financial Time Series Model by Statistical Physics System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wuyang Cheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop a random financial time series model of stock market by one of statistical physics systems, the stochastic contact interacting system. Contact process is a continuous time Markov process; one interpretation of this model is as a model for the spread of an infection, where the epidemic spreading mimics the interplay of local infections and recovery of individuals. From this financial model, we study the statistical behaviors of return time series, and the corresponding behaviors of returns for Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSECI and Hang Seng Index (HSI are also comparatively studied. Further, we investigate the Zipf distribution and multifractal phenomenon of returns and price changes. Zipf analysis and MF-DFA analysis are applied to investigate the natures of fluctuations for the stock market.

  2. A stochastic model for the financial market with discontinuous prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leda D. Minkova

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper models some situations occurring in the financial market. The asset prices evolve according to a stochastic integral equation driven by a Gaussian martingale. A portfolio process is constrained in such a way that the wealth process covers some obligation. A solution to a linear stochastic integral equation is obtained in a class of cadlag stochastic processes.

  3. Financial difficulties lead OPEC countries on the prices correction way

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    The financial difficulties of OPEC countries are going to lead them to correct the petroleum prices. In front of a decreasing since 1992, it is necessary to make them grow of about $1 the barrel. It is the principal conclusion of Bali meeting for next months even perhaps for next years

  4. Quantitative analysis on the fluctuation of vegetable price in supermarket

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miranda Suci

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the variables affecting the determination of vegetable sale price in supermarket and investigate each amount considered into the formulation. We use the supermarket pricing strategies literatures, cost management theory, and any information obtained from suppliers and supermarket to investigate the variables influenced the sale price gap between supplier sale price and supermarket sale price. In order to obtain the supermarket sale price, it is required to understand the concept of costs. Supermarket as a merchandising firm has two components of costs called purchase costs and operating expenses which are computed to be Cost of Goods Sold (COGS. We found that supplier sale price is the purchase costs and plays has the main role in determining the supermarket sale price. The operating expenses considered is the holding cost. The vegetable characteristics and consumer behaviour have driven the contribution of amount of variables into the sale price at supermarket. Finally, we present the variables satisfying the vegetable sale price formulation and how they are calculated becoming the supermarket sale price.

  5. A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of financial market efficiency: Comparison using Dow Jones sector ETF indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2017-10-01

    This study challenges the efficient market hypothesis, relying on the Dow Jones sector Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) indices. For this purpose, we use the generalized Hurst exponent and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) methods, using daily data over the timespan from 2000 to 2015. We compare the sector ETF indices in terms of market efficiency between short- and long-run horizons, small and large fluctuations, and before and after the global financial crisis (GFC). Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, there is clear evidence that the sector ETF markets are multifractal in nature. We also find a crossover in the multifractality of sector ETF market dynamics. Second, the utilities and consumer goods sector ETF markets are more efficient compared with the financial and telecommunications sector ETF markets, in terms of price prediction. Third, there are noteworthy discrepancies in terms of market efficiency, between the short- and long-term horizons. Fourth, the ETF market efficiency is considerably diminished after the global financial crisis.

  6. Trades, quotes and prices financial markets under the microscope

    CERN Document Server

    Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Donier, Jonathan; Gould, Martin

    2018-01-01

    The widespread availability of high-quality, high-frequency data has revolutionised the study of financial markets. By describing not only asset prices, but also market participants' actions and interactions, this wealth of information offers a new window into the inner workings of the financial ecosystem. In this original text, the authors discuss empirical facts of financial markets and introduce a wide range of models, from the micro-scale mechanics of individual order arrivals to the emergent, macro-scale issues of market stability. Throughout this journey, data is king. All discussions are firmly rooted in the empirical behaviour of real stocks, and all models are calibrated and evaluated using recent data from Nasdaq. By confronting theory with empirical facts, this book for practitioners, researchers and advanced students provides a fresh, new, and often surprising perspective on topics as diverse as optimal trading, price impact, the fragile nature of liquidity, and even the reasons why people trade a...

  7. Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lizardo, Radhames A.; Mollick, Andre V.

    2010-01-01

    Adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates, we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008. Our long-run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil-exchange rate relationship. Increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the USD against net oil exporter currencies, such as Canada, Mexico, and Russia. On the other hand, the currencies of oil importers, such as Japan, depreciate relative to the USD when the real oil price goes up. (author)

  8. Crossover Phenomena in Detrended Fluctuation Analysis Used in Financial Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Shihao

    2009-01-01

    A systematic analysis of Shanghai and Japan stock indices for the period of Jan. 1984 to Dec. 2005 is performed. After stationarity is verified by ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) test, the power spectrum of the data exhibits a power law decay as a whole characterized by 1/f β processes with possible long range correlations. Subsequently, by using the method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) of the general volatility in the stock markets, we find that the long-range correlations are occurred among the return series and the crossover phenomena exhibit in the results obviously. Further, Shanghai stock market shows long-range correlations in short time scale and shows short-range correlations in long time scale. Whereas, for Japan stock market, the data behaves oppositely absolutely. Last, we compare the varying of scale exponent in large volatility between two stock markets. All results obtained may indicate the possibility of characteristic of multifractal scaling behavior of the financial markets.

  9. Environmental Factors Influencing Fluctuation of Share Prices on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    investment decisions when they are aware of the stock market structure, ... is important to examine role played by prices of stocks in encouraging ... implication of this is that stock prices of similar market or industry will tend ... of fiscal policies can help reduce unnecessary volatility in real exchange ..... Expected Dividend.

  10. Why did the price of solar PV Si feedstock fluctuate so wildly in 2004–2009?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Yang; Song Yuhua; Bao Haibo

    2012-01-01

    Great attention has been paid to the origin of observed wild price fluctuations of solar PV Si feedstock in both contract and spot markets during 2004–2009. This paper sheds light on this issue and tries to resolve it by addressing the following questions: what kind of structural shock is underlying the price fluctuations of PV Si feedstock? How can we quantify the magnitude, timing and relative importance of these shocks? What are their dynamic effects on the real price of PV Si feedstock? By carefully studying development conditions, the structural decomposition of the real price of PV Si feedstock is proposed: exchange rate shocks, production cost shocks, aggregate demand shocks and demand shocks specific to feedstock markets. With a Structural Vector Autoregression model, the paper quantifies and verifies the impact of structural shocks on PV Si feedstock real price changes. Based on national data, an analysis is further taken to confirm the essential role of demand shocks specific to feedstock markets in determining sharper price fluctuations during 2004–2009. The results of this study have important implications for national solar PV development, which can be better promoted and administrated if structural shocks in feedstock markets can be carefully evaluated and understood. - Highlights: ► The determination of solar PV Si feedstock price fluctuation is identified and quantified. ► Systematic structural shocks well explain 2004–2009 price fluctuations of PV Si feedstock. ► Production cost and aggregated demand shocks take longer effects on feedstock price. ► Exchange rate and feedstock specific demand shocks explain sharper price fluctuations. ► Development of national PV power should consider effects of structure shocks.

  11. Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Chen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Heating oil is an extremely important heating fuel to consumers in northeastern United States. This paper studies the fluctuations law and dynamic behavior of heating oil spot and futures prices by setting up their complex network models based on the data of America in recent 30 years. Firstly, modes are defined by the method of coarse graining, the spot price fluctuation network of heating oil (HSPFN and its futures price fluctuation network (HFPFN in different periods are established to analyze the transformation characteristics between the modes. Secondly, several indicators are investigated: average path length, node strength and strength distribution, betweeness, etc. In addition, a function is established to measure and analyze the network similarity. The results show the cumulative time of new nodes appearing in either spot or futures price network is not random but exhibits a growth trend of straight line. Meanwhile, the power law distributions of spot and futures price fluctuations in different periods present regularity and complexity. Moreover, these prices are strongly correlated in stable fluctuation period but weak in the phase of sharp fluctuation. Finally, the time distribution characteristics of important modes in the networks and the evolution results of the topological properties mentioned above are obtained.

  12. Modeling and complexity of stochastic interacting Lévy type financial price dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiduan; Zheng, Shenzhou; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun; Wang, Guochao

    2018-06-01

    In attempt to reproduce and investigate nonlinear dynamics of security markets, a novel nonlinear random interacting price dynamics, which is considered as a Lévy type process, is developed and investigated by the combination of lattice oriented percolation and Potts dynamics, which concerns with the instinctive random fluctuation and the fluctuation caused by the spread of the investors' trading attitudes, respectively. To better understand the fluctuation complexity properties of the proposed model, the complexity analyses of random logarithmic price return and corresponding volatility series are preformed, including power-law distribution, Lempel-Ziv complexity and fractional sample entropy. In order to verify the rationality of the proposed model, the corresponding studies of actual security market datasets are also implemented for comparison. The empirical results reveal that this financial price model can reproduce some important complexity features of actual security markets to some extent. The complexity of returns decreases with the increase of parameters γ1 and β respectively, furthermore, the volatility series exhibit lower complexity than the return series

  13. THE NEW ERA OF FINANCIAL INNOVATION: THE DETERMINANTS OF BITCOIN’S PRICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukmawati Sukamulja

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Financial innovation has entered a new era in which a digitalized system and cryptocurrency have been created. This paper examines the factors that influence the price movement of bitcoin. This is not a legal currency in Indonesia; the Indonesian government has not made any regulations legalizing bitcoin’s use, but it has also not issued any new laws to prohibit the trade in bitcoins and other digital currencies. The demand for, and price growth of, bitcoin are interesting matters to study, especially for Indonesians who still have questions about the progress of Bitcoin transactions and the factors that influent them. In Indonesia itself, without any protection from the government, the bitcoin price on December 14, 2017 had already reached more than IDR224.5 million, compare to IDR60 million in October 2017. Bitcoin is the first peer-to-peer currency, and was introduced by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008. Since its inception, bitcoin has served more than 17 million users, including Indonesians. Bitcoin behaves in a different manner, compared to traditional currencies and the one that affects bitcoin’s price is its attractiveness for investors. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM is applied to analyze the short-term and long-term influences. VECM is used in this research because the data is stationary in the first difference and has a cointegration relationship. To make the interpretation clearer, the impulse response function and variance decomposition also are included in this research. The result indicates that the macroeconomic indicator, represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, the demand for bitcoins and the gold price influence bitcoin’s price fluctuations in the short-run and long-run. Bitcoin’s supply does not influence its price fluctuation in the long-run but does influence it in the short-run. The implication of this research is bitcoin could compete as an alternative investment compared to the capital markets and

  14. Consideration on the price stability – financial stability relationship in the context of financial globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Apostoaie

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is focused upon the involvement of the central banks regarding the fulfillment of the two main objectives: price  stability and financial stability. These two key concepts are part of an old and ongoing debate that the current turmoil has revived, and that is whether monetary policy should aim, or not, at ensuring financial stability in parallel to its main objective of price stability. On both sides there are solid and well known arguments. In the beginning of the study I have  considered a literature review with regard to price and financial stability issues. After that I have tried to shed some light (from a theoretical point of view on the nature and dynamics of the fundamental interlinkages between the two aspects and there implications on the central banks and the economy. Finally I outline some general conclusions that have emerged in the present study.

  15. Oil price volatility, financial regulation and energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevalier, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    In October of 2009, the French Ministry of Economy asked the author to chair a work group on oil price volatility. The report resulting from that work was submitted to the minister on February 9, 2010. Based on the report, this article focuses on three major elements: (i) the operation of the oil market, with interacting physical basics and financial basics (ii) financial market regulation, more specifically commodities-derived product markets and current work in that area and (iii) the lessons one can draw from that exercise in terms of energy policy. Significant projects have been initiated on global, European and national levels. (author)

  16. The COS Method : An Efficient Fourier Method for Pricing Financial Derivatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fang, F.

    2010-01-01

    When valuing and risk-managing financial derivatives, practitioners demand fast and accurate prices and sensitivities. Aside from the pricing of non-standard exotic financial derivatives, so-called plain vanilla European options form the basis for the calibration of financial models. As any pricing

  17. Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aune, Finn Roar; Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Mohn, Klaus; Osmundsen, Petter

    2010-01-01

    We explore a hypothesis that a change in investment behaviour among international oil companies (IOC) towards the end of the 1990s had long-lived effects on OPEC strategies, and on oil price formation. Coordinated investment constraints were imposed on the IOCs through financial market pressures for improved short-term profitability in the wake of the Asian economic crisis. A partial equilibrium model for the global oil market is applied to compare the effects of these tacitly collusive capital constraints on oil supply with an alternative characterised by industrial stability. Our results suggest that even temporary economic and financial shocks may have a long-term impact on oil price formation. (author)

  18. Jump diffusion models and the evolution of financial prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Castro, Marcio T. de; Silva, Sergio da; Gleria, Iram

    2011-01-01

    We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. We consider the stochastic term as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. We point to the effects of the jumps on the return time evolution, a central concern of the econophysics literature. The presence of jumps suggests that the process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. We then extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model and show the model to be capable of explaining return behavior. -- Highlights: → We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. → The stochastic term is considered as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. → The process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. → We extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model.

  19. Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations

    KAUST Repository

    Markowich, Peter A.

    2016-10-04

    In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present results on the long time asymptotic behavior and numerical evidence and conjectures on periodic, almost periodic, and stochastic uctuations. The numerical simulations extend the theoretical statements and give further insights into price formation dynamics.

  20. Financial news predicts stock market volatility better than close price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Atkins

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of time series data from financial markets is influenced by a rich mixture of quantitative information from the dynamics of the system, captured in its past behaviour, and qualitative information about the underlying fundamentals arriving via various forms of news feeds. Pattern recognition of financial data using an effective combination of these two types of information is of much interest nowadays, and is addressed in several academic disciplines as well as by practitioners. Recent literature has focused much effort on the use of news-derived information to predict the direction of movement of a stock, i.e. posed as a classification problem, or the precise value of a future asset price, i.e. posed as a regression problem. Here, we show that information extracted from news sources is better at predicting the direction of underlying asset volatility movement, or its second order statistics, rather than its direction of price movement. We show empirical results by constructing machine learning models of Latent Dirichlet Allocation to represent information from news feeds, and simple naïve Bayes classifiers to predict the direction of movements. Empirical results show that the average directional prediction accuracy for volatility, on arrival of new information, is 56%, while that of the asset close price is no better than random at 49%. We evaluate these results using a range of stocks and stock indices in the US market, using a reliable news source as input. We conclude that volatility movements are more predictable than asset price movements when using financial news as machine learning input, and hence could potentially be exploited in pricing derivatives contracts via quantifying volatility. Keywords: Machine learning, Natural language processing, Volatility forecasting, Technical analysis, Computational finance

  1. Oil price dynamics and speculation. A multivariate financial approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cifarelli, Giulio; Paladino, Giovanna

    2010-01-01

    This paper assesses empirically whether speculation affects oil price dynamics. The growing presence of financial operators in the oil markets has led to the diffusion of trading techniques based on extrapolative expectations. Strategies of this kind foster feedback trading that may cause considerable departures of prices from their fundamental values. We investigate this hypothesis using a modified CAPM following Shiller (1984) and Sentana and Wadhwani (1992). First, a univariate GARCH(1,1)-M is estimated assuming the risk premium to be a function of the conditional oil price volatility. The single factor model, however, is outperformed by the multifactor ICAPM (Merton, 1973), which takes into account a larger investment opportunity set. Analysis is then carried out using a trivariate CCC GARCH-M model with complex nonlinear conditional mean equations where oil price dynamics are associated with both stock market and exchange rate behavior. We find strong evidence that oil price shifts are negatively related to stock price and exchange rate changes and that a complex web of time-varying first and second order conditional moment interactions affects both the CAPM and feedback trading components of the model. Despite the difficulties, we identify a significant role played by speculation in the oil market, which is consistent with the observed large daily upward and downward shifts in prices - a clear evidence that it is not a fundamental-driven market. Thus, from a policy point of view - given the impact of volatile oil prices on global inflation and growth - actions that monitor speculative activities on commodity markets more effectively are to be welcomed. (author)

  2. Oil price dynamics and speculation. A multivariate financial approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cifarelli, Giulio [University of Florence, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, via delle Pandette 9, 50127, Florence (Italy); Paladino, Giovanna [Economics Department, LUISS University (Italy); BIIS International Division (Italy)

    2010-03-15

    This paper assesses empirically whether speculation affects oil price dynamics. The growing presence of financial operators in the oil markets has led to the diffusion of trading techniques based on extrapolative expectations. Strategies of this kind foster feedback trading that may cause considerable departures of prices from their fundamental values. We investigate this hypothesis using a modified CAPM following Shiller (1984) and Sentana and Wadhwani (1992). First, a univariate GARCH(1,1)-M is estimated assuming the risk premium to be a function of the conditional oil price volatility. The single factor model, however, is outperformed by the multifactor ICAPM (Merton, 1973), which takes into account a larger investment opportunity set. Analysis is then carried out using a trivariate CCC GARCH-M model with complex nonlinear conditional mean equations where oil price dynamics are associated with both stock market and exchange rate behavior. We find strong evidence that oil price shifts are negatively related to stock price and exchange rate changes and that a complex web of time-varying first and second order conditional moment interactions affects both the CAPM and feedback trading components of the model. Despite the difficulties, we identify a significant role played by speculation in the oil market, which is consistent with the observed large daily upward and downward shifts in prices - a clear evidence that it is not a fundamental-driven market. Thus, from a policy point of view - given the impact of volatile oil prices on global inflation and growth - actions that monitor speculative activities on commodity markets more effectively are to be welcomed. (author)

  3. Detecting method for crude oil price fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Xiangyun; Fang, Wei; An, Feng; Wang, Yue

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • We proposed the concept of autoregressive modes to indicate the fluctuation patterns. • We constructed transmission networks for studying the fluctuation mechanism. • There are different fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series. • Only a few types of autoregressive modes control the fluctuations in crude oil price. • There are cluster effects during the fluctuation mechanism of autoregressive modes. - Abstract: Current existing literatures can characterize the long-term fluctuation of crude oil price time series, however, it is difficult to detect the fluctuation mechanism specifically under short term. Because each fluctuation pattern for one short period contained in a long-term crude oil price time series have dynamic characteristics of diversity; in other words, there exhibit various fluctuation patterns in different short periods and transmit to each other, which reflects the reputedly complicate and chaotic oil market. Thus, we proposed an incorporated method to detect the fluctuation mechanism, which is the evolution of the different fluctuation patterns over time from the complex network perspective. We divided crude oil price time series into segments using sliding time windows, and defined autoregressive modes based on regression models to indicate the fluctuation patterns of each segment. Hence, the transmissions between different types of autoregressive modes over time form a transmission network that contains rich dynamic information. We then capture transmission characteristics of autoregressive modes under different periodic time series through the structure features of the transmission networks. The results indicate that there are various autoregressive modes with significantly different statistical characteristics under different periodic time series. However, only a few types of autoregressive modes and transmission patterns play a major role in the fluctuation mechanism of the crude oil price, and these

  4. Analysis of Price Fluctuations in an Artificial Market

    OpenAIRE

    鈴木, 卓弥; 工藤, 清

    2004-01-01

    We proposed simple mathematical model of the artificial market which consists of the many agents. Our model gives to each agent characteristic period for that interval he can entry into the stock market. They take the strategy "following the trend", i.e., "if it rises, he buys, and if it goes down, he sells". They take, however, opposite strategy "against market trend", if price change exceeds threshold value. The price change of the market depends on the total tradings of stocks. In our mode...

  5. Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations

    KAUST Repository

    Markowich, Peter A.; Teichmann, Josef; Wolfram, Marie Therese

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present

  6. Decoupling the Oil and Gas Prices. Natural Gas Pricing in the Post-Financial Crisis Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanai, Miharu

    2011-01-01

    This paper looks into natural gas pricing in the post-financial crisis market and, in particular, examines the question whether the oil-linked gas pricing system has outlived its utility as global gas markets mature and converge more rapidly than expected and as large new resources of unconventional gas shift the gas terms-of-trade. Two opposing natural gas pricing systems have coexisted for the last two decades. On the one hand, there is traditional oil-linked pricing, used in pipeline gas imports by Continental European countries and in LNG imports by the countries in Far East. The other is the system led by futures exchanges in deregulated, competitive markets largely in the UK and the US. World gas markets are changing and the basis and mechanisms of price formation are changing with them. There is no reason to expect a revolution in gas pricing, but formulas designed to address the challenges of the 1970's will need to adjust to the realities of the present and expectations for the 21. century. Because such changes will imply a redistribution of costs and benefits, vested shareholders will defend the status quo. But hopefully and ultimately, appropriately regulated markets will assert themselves and shareholders along the entire value chain will have their interests served

  7. Characterizing multi-scale self-similar behavior and non-statistical properties of fluctuations in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Sayantan; Manimaran, P.; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.

    2011-11-01

    We make use of wavelet transform to study the multi-scale, self-similar behavior and deviations thereof, in the stock prices of large companies, belonging to different economic sectors. The stock market returns exhibit multi-fractal characteristics, with some of the companies showing deviations at small and large scales. The fact that, the wavelets belonging to the Daubechies’ (Db) basis enables one to isolate local polynomial trends of different degrees, plays the key role in isolating fluctuations at different scales. One of the primary motivations of this work is to study the emergence of the k-3 behavior [X. Gabaix, P. Gopikrishnan, V. Plerou, H. Stanley, A theory of power law distributions in financial market fluctuations, Nature 423 (2003) 267-270] of the fluctuations starting with high frequency fluctuations. We make use of Db4 and Db6 basis sets to respectively isolate local linear and quadratic trends at different scales in order to study the statistical characteristics of these financial time series. The fluctuations reveal fat tail non-Gaussian behavior, unstable periodic modulations, at finer scales, from which the characteristic k-3 power law behavior emerges at sufficiently large scales. We further identify stable periodic behavior through the continuous Morlet wavelet.

  8. Time scale defined by the fractal structure of the price fluctuations in foreign exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumagai, Yoshiaki

    2010-04-01

    In this contribution, a new time scale named C-fluctuation time is defined by price fluctuations observed at a given resolution. The intraday fractal structures and the relations of the three time scales: real time (physical time), tick time and C-fluctuation time, in foreign exchange markets are analyzed. The data set used is trading prices of foreign exchange rates; US dollar (USD)/Japanese yen (JPY), USD/Euro (EUR), and EUR/JPY. The accuracy of the data is one minute and data within a minute are recorded in order of transaction. The series of instantaneous velocity of C-fluctuation time flowing are exponentially distributed for small C when they are measured by real time and for tiny C when they are measured by tick time. When the market is volatile, for larger C, the series of instantaneous velocity are exponentially distributed.

  9. How fast do stock prices adjust to market efficiency? Evidence from a detrended fluctuation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reboredo, Juan C.; Rivera-Castro, Miguel A.; Miranda, José G. V.; García-Rubio, Raquel

    2013-04-01

    In this paper we analyse price fluctuations with the aim of measuring how long the market takes to adjust prices to weak-form efficiency, i.e., how long it takes for prices to adjust to a fractional Brownian motion with a Hurst exponent of 0.5. The Hurst exponent is estimated for different time horizons using detrended fluctuation analysis-a method suitable for non-stationary series with trends-in order to identify at which time scale the Hurst exponent is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. Using high-frequency share price, exchange rate and stock data, we show how price dynamics exhibited important deviations from efficiency for time periods of up to 15 min; thereafter, price dynamics was consistent with a geometric Brownian motion. The intraday behaviour of the series also indicated that price dynamics at trade opening and close was hardly consistent with efficiency, which would enable investors to exploit price deviations from fundamental values. This result is consistent with intraday volume, volatility and transaction time duration patterns.

  10. Investors’ risk attitudes and stock price fluctuation asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Li, Honggang

    2011-05-01

    Price rise/fall asymmetry, which indicates enduring but modest rises and sudden short-term falls, is a ubiquitous phenomenon in stock markets throughout the world. Instead of the widely used time series method, we adopt inverse statistics from turbulence to analyze this asymmetry. To explore its underlying mechanism, we build a multi-agent model with two kinds of investors, which are specifically referred to as fundamentalists and chartists. Inspired by Kahneman and Tversky’s claim regarding peoples’ asymmetric psychological responses to the equivalent levels of gains and losses, we assume that investors take different risk attitudes to gains and losses and adopt different trading strategies. The simulation results of the model developed herein are consistent with empirical work, which may support our conjecture that investors’ asymmetric risk attitudes might be one origin of rise/fall asymmetry.

  11. Ambiguity Aversion, Asset Prices, and the Welfare Costs of Aggregate Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alonso, Irasema; Prado, Mauricio

    2015-01-01

    with a representative agent facing consumption fluctuations calibrated to match U.S. data from 1889 to 2008. Our experiment is to restrict preference parameters in order to as well as possible match some asset-price facts—the average returns on equity and a short-term risk-free bond—and then compute the welfare...

  12. BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING MEASUREMENT: HISTORICAL COMMENTS

    OpenAIRE

    stanley c. w. salvary

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses a theme in an historical setting that financial accounting measurement contributes to: (1) retardation of national economic growth by the failure of financial accounting to provide for the replacement of capital goods in its measurement process; and (2) the business cycle owing to the illusory profits reported in financial statements. The author explores the issues and concludes that the arguments against accounting are based upon misunderstandings.

  13. House prices and household mobility in the Netherlands : Empirical analyses of financial characteristics of the household

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steegmans, J.W.A.M.

    2017-01-01

    The dissertation studies the role of financial household characteristics in the determination of house prices and household mobility in the Dutch owner-occupied housing market. We investigate how various financial characteristics -- in particular income, wealth, housing equity, and prospective

  14. Characteristics of the co-fluctuation matrix transmission network based on financial multi-time series

    OpenAIRE

    Huajiao Li; Haizhong An; Xiangyun Gao; Wei Fang

    2015-01-01

    The co-fluctuation of two time series has often been studied by analysing the correlation coefficient over a selected period. However, in both domestic and global financial markets, there are more than two active time series that fluctuate constantly as a result of various factors, including geographic locations, information communications and so on. In addition to correlation relationships over longer periods, daily co-fluctuation relationships and their transmission features are also import...

  15. How Volatilities Nonlocal in Time Affect the Price Dynamics in Complex Financial Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo; Chen, Jun-Jie; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

    2015-01-01

    What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made, it remains challenging. Physicists usually apply the concepts and methods in statistical physics, such as temporal correlation functions, to study financial dynamics. However, the usual volatility-return correlation function, which is local in time, typically fluctuates around zero. Here we construct dynamic observables nonlocal in time to explore the volatility-return correlation, based on the empirical data of hundreds of individual stocks and 25 stock market indices in different countries. Strikingly, the correlation is discovered to be non-zero, with an amplitude of a few percent and a duration of over two weeks. This result provides compelling evidence that past volatilities nonlocal in time affect future returns. Further, we introduce an agent-based model with a novel mechanism, that is, the asymmetric trading preference in volatile and stable markets, to understand the microscopic origin of the volatility-return correlation nonlocal in time. PMID:25723154

  16. How volatilities nonlocal in time affect the price dynamics in complex financial systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Tan

    Full Text Available What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made, it remains challenging. Physicists usually apply the concepts and methods in statistical physics, such as temporal correlation functions, to study financial dynamics. However, the usual volatility-return correlation function, which is local in time, typically fluctuates around zero. Here we construct dynamic observables nonlocal in time to explore the volatility-return correlation, based on the empirical data of hundreds of individual stocks and 25 stock market indices in different countries. Strikingly, the correlation is discovered to be non-zero, with an amplitude of a few percent and a duration of over two weeks. This result provides compelling evidence that past volatilities nonlocal in time affect future returns. Further, we introduce an agent-based model with a novel mechanism, that is, the asymmetric trading preference in volatile and stable markets, to understand the microscopic origin of the volatility-return correlation nonlocal in time.

  17. A Partial Backlogging Inventory Model for Deteriorating Items with Fluctuating Selling Price and Purchasing Cost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-Ling Yang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In today’s competitive markets, selling price and purchasing cost are usually fluctuating with economic conditions. Both selling price and purchasing cost are vital to the profitability of a firm. Therefore, in this paper, I extend the inventory model introduced by Teng and Yang (2004 to allow for not only the selling price but also the purchasing cost to change from one replenishment cycle to another during a finite time horizon. The objective is to find the optimal replenishment schedule and pricing policy to obtain the profit as maximum as possible. The conditions that lead to a maximizing solution guarantee that the existence, uniqueness, and global optimality are proposed. An efficient solution procedure and some theoretical results are presented. Finally, numerical examples for illustration and sensitivity analysis for managerial decision making are also performed.

  18. Monetary Policy and Financial Asset Prices: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imran Umer Chhapra

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Monetary transmission mechanism assumed to be significantly influenced by the effect of policy decisions on financial markets. However, various previous studies have come up with different outcomes. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of monetary policy on different asset classes (shares and bonds in Pakistan. This study using stock price and bond yield as dependent variable and discount rate, money supply, inflation, and exchange rate are independent variables. Data of all variables have collected from 2010 to 2016, and Vector Autoregressive (VAR technique has applied. The empirical results indicate that there is an impact of monetary policy components on both stock and bond market as an increase in policy rate causes decline in stocks prices and bonds yields. The findings of this study will help the potential investors in making long-term (in general and short-term (in particular investment strategies concerning monetary policy.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7099

  19. Macro economy, stock market and oil prices. Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filis, George

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship among consumer price index, industrial production, stock market and oil prices in Greece. Initially we use a unified statistical framework (cointegration and VECM) to study the data in levels. We then employ a multivariate VAR model to examine the relationship among the cyclical components of our series. The period of the study is from 1996:1 to 2008:6. Findings suggest that oil prices and the stock market exercise a positive effect on the Greek CPI, in the long run. Cyclical components analysis suggests that oil prices exercise significant negative influence to the stock market. In addition, oil prices are negatively influencing CPI, at a significant level. However, we find no effect of oil prices on industrial production and CPI. Finally, no relationship can be documented between the industrial production and stock market for the Greek market. The findings of this study are of particular interest and importance to policy makers, financial managers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Greek economy and the Greek stock market. (author)

  20. Analysis on the Impact of the Fluctuation of the International Gold Prices on the Chinese Gold Stocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiankang Jin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Five gold stocks in Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share and Comex gold futures are chosen to form the sample, for the purpose of analysing the impact of the fluctuation of the international gold prices on the gold stocks in Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share. Using the methods of unit root test, Granger causality test, VAR model, and impulse response function, this paper has analysed the relationship between the price change of the international gold futures and the price fluctuation of gold stocks in Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen comprehensively. The results suggest the fluctuation of the international gold futures has a strong influence on the domestic futures.

  1. Optimal operation strategies of compressed air energy storage (CAES) on electricity spot markets with fluctuating prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Salgi, Georges; Elmegaard, Brian

    2009-01-01

    on electricity spot markets by storing energy when electricity prices are low and producing electricity when prices are high. In order to make a profit on such markets, CAES plant operators have to identify proper strategies to decide when to sell and when to buy electricity. This paper describes three...... plants will not be able to achieve such optimal operation, since the fluctuations of spot market prices in the coming hours and days are not known. Consequently, two simple practical strategies have been identified and compared to the results of the optimal strategy. This comparison shows that...... independent computer-based methodologies which may be used for identifying the optimal operation strategy for a given CAES plant, on a given spot market and in a given year. The optimal strategy is identified as the one which provides the best business-economic net earnings for the plant. In practice, CAES...

  2. The Role of Media Coverage in Explaining Stock Market Fluctuations: Insights for Strategic Financial Communication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strycharz, J.; Strauss, N.; Trilling, D.

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the reciprocal relationships between the fluctuation of the closing prices of three companies listed on the Amsterdam exchange index, namely ING, Philips and Shell and online media coverage related to these firms for a period of two years (2014–2015). Automated content

  3. A Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis of the Ising Financial Markets Model with Small World Topology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Ang-Hui; Li Xiao-Wen; Su Gui-Feng; Zhang Yi

    2015-01-01

    We present a multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) of the time series of return generated by our recently-proposed Ising financial market model with underlying small world topology. The result of the MFDFA shows that there exists obvious multifractal scaling behavior in produced time series. We compare the MFDFA results for original time series with those for shuffled series, and find that its multifractal nature is due to two factors: broadness of probability density function of the series and different correlations in small- and large-scale fluctuations. This may provide new insight to the problem of the origin of multifractality in financial time series. (paper)

  4. Oil price fluctuations and employment in Kern County: A Vector Error Correction approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michieka, Nyakundi M.; Gearhart, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Kern County is one of the country's largest oil producing regions, in which the oil industry employs a significant fraction of the labor force in the county. In this study, the short- and long-run effects of oil price fluctuations on employment in Kern County are investigated using a Vector Error Correction model (VECM). Empirical results over the period 1990:01 to 2015:03 suggest long-run causality running from both WTI and Brent oil prices to employment. No causality is detected in the short-run. Kern County should formulate appropriate policies, which take into account the fact that changes in oil prices have long-term effects on employment rather than short term. - Highlights: • Kern County is California's largest oil producing region. • Historical data has shown increased employment during periods of high oil prices. • We study the short- and long run effects of oil prices on employment in Kern County. • Results suggest long run causality running from WTI and Brent to employment. • No causality is detected in the short run.

  5. Fluctuation behaviors of financial time series by a stochastic Ising system on a Sierpinski carpet lattice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wen; Wang, Jun

    2013-09-01

    We develop a financial market model using an Ising spin system on a Sierpinski carpet lattice that breaks the equal status of each spin. To study the fluctuation behavior of the financial model, we present numerical research based on Monte Carlo simulation in conjunction with the statistical analysis and multifractal analysis of the financial time series. We extract the multifractal spectra by selecting various lattice size values of the Sierpinski carpet, and the inverse temperature of the Ising dynamic system. We also investigate the statistical fluctuation behavior, the time-varying volatility clustering, and the multifractality of returns for the indices SSE, SZSE, DJIA, IXIC, S&P500, HSI, N225, and for the simulation data derived from the Ising model on the Sierpinski carpet lattice. A numerical study of the model’s dynamical properties reveals that this financial model reproduces important features of the empirical data.

  6. The Multiscale Fluctuations of the Correlation between Oil Price and Wind Energy Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shupei Huang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy is considered a clear and sustainable substitution for fossil fuel, and the stock index of the wind energy industry is closely related to the oil price fluctuation. Their relationship is characterized by multiscale and time-varying features based on a variety of stakeholders who have different objectives within various time horizons, which makes it difficult to identify the factor in which time scale could be the most influential one in the market. Aiming to explore the correlation between oil price and the wind energy stock index from the time–frequency domain in a dynamic perspective, we propose an algorithm combining the wavelet transform, complex network, and gray correlation analyses and choose the Brent oil price and the international securities exchange (ISE global wind energy index from January 2006 to October 2015 in daily frequency as data sample. First, we define the multiscale conformation by a set of fluctuation information with different time horizons to represent the fluctuation status of the correlation of the oil–wind nexus rather than by a single original correlation value. Then, we transform the multiscale conformation evolution into a network model, and only 270 multiscale conformations and 710 transmissions could characterize 2451 data points. We find that only 30% of conformations and transmissions work as a backbone of the entire correlation series; through these major conformations, we identify that the main factor that could influence the oil–wind nexus are long-term components, such as policies, the status of the global economy and demand–supply issues. In addition, there is a clustering effect and transmissions among conformations that mainly happen inside clusters and rarely among clusters, which means the interaction of the oil–wind nexus is stable over a short period of time.

  7. Estimating inpatient hospital prices from state administrative data and hospital financial reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levit, Katharine R; Friedman, Bernard; Wong, Herbert S

    2013-10-01

    To develop a tool for estimating hospital-specific inpatient prices for major payers. AHRQ Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases and complete hospital financial reporting of revenues mandated in 10 states for 2006. Hospital discharge records and hospital financial information were merged to estimate revenue per stay by payer. Estimated prices were validated against other data sources. Hospital prices can be reasonably estimated for 10 geographically diverse states. All-payer price-to-charge ratios, an intermediate step in estimating prices, compare favorably to cost-to-charge ratios. Estimated prices also compare well with Medicare, MarketScan private insurance, and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey prices for major payers, given limitations of each dataset. Public reporting of prices is a consumer resource in making decisions about health care treatment; for self-pay patients, they can provide leverage in negotiating discounts off of charges. Researchers can also use prices to increase understanding of the level and causes of price differentials among geographic areas. Prices by payer expand investigational tools available to study the interaction of inpatient hospital price setting among public and private payers--an important asset as the payer mix changes with the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. © Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  8. Financial fluctuations anchored to economic fundamentals: A mesoscopic network approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Kiran; Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal; Chakrabarti, Anindya S; Chakraborti, Anirban

    2017-08-14

    We demonstrate the existence of an empirical linkage between nominal financial networks and the underlying economic fundamentals, across countries. We construct the nominal return correlation networks from daily data to encapsulate sector-level dynamics and infer the relative importance of the sectors in the nominal network through measures of centrality and clustering algorithms. Eigenvector centrality robustly identifies the backbone of the minimum spanning tree defined on the return networks as well as the primary cluster in the multidimensional scaling map. We show that the sectors that are relatively large in size, defined with three metrics, viz., market capitalization, revenue and number of employees, constitute the core of the return networks, whereas the periphery is mostly populated by relatively smaller sectors. Therefore, sector-level nominal return dynamics are anchored to the real size effect, which ultimately shapes the optimal portfolios for risk management. Our results are reasonably robust across 27 countries of varying degrees of prosperity and across periods of market turbulence (2008-09) as well as periods of relative calmness (2012-13 and 2015-16).

  9. A reaction-diffusion model for market fluctuations - A relation between price change and traded volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuvan, Steven; Bier, Martin

    2018-02-01

    Two decades ago Bak et al. (1997) [3] proposed a reaction-diffusion model to describe market fluctuations. In the model buyers and sellers diffuse from opposite ends of a 1D interval that represents a price range. Trades occur when buyers and sellers meet. We show analytically and numerically that the model well reproduces the square-root relation between traded volumes and price changes that is observed in real-life markets. The result is remarkable as this relation has commonly been explained in terms of more elaborate trader strategies. We furthermore explain why the square-root relation is robust under model modifications and we show how real-life bond market data exhibit the square-root relation.

  10. Evolution in fluctuating environments: decomposing selection into additive components of the Robertson-Price equation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2014-03-01

    We analyze the stochastic components of the Robertson-Price equation for the evolution of quantitative characters that enables decomposition of the selection differential into components due to demographic and environmental stochasticity. We show how these two types of stochasticity affect the evolution of multivariate quantitative characters by defining demographic and environmental variances as components of individual fitness. The exact covariance formula for selection is decomposed into three components, the deterministic mean value, as well as stochastic demographic and environmental components. We show that demographic and environmental stochasticity generate random genetic drift and fluctuating selection, respectively. This provides a common theoretical framework for linking ecological and evolutionary processes. Demographic stochasticity can cause random variation in selection differentials independent of fluctuating selection caused by environmental variation. We use this model of selection to illustrate that the effect on the expected selection differential of random variation in individual fitness is dependent on population size, and that the strength of fluctuating selection is affected by how environmental variation affects the covariance in Malthusian fitness between individuals with different phenotypes. Thus, our approach enables us to partition out the effects of fluctuating selection from the effects of selection due to random variation in individual fitness caused by demographic stochasticity. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  11. The analysis of volatility of gold coin price fluctuations in Iran using ARCH & VAR models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younos Vakilolroaya

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the changes in gold price and modeling of its return volatility and conditional variance model. The study gathers daily prices of gold coins as the dependent variable and the price of gold in world market, the price of oil in OPEC, exchange rate USD to IRR and index of Tehran Stock Exchange from March 2007 to July 2013 and using ARCH family models and VAR methods, the study analysis the data. The study first examines whether the data are stationary or not and then it reviews the household stability, Arch and Garch models. The proposed study investigates the causality among variables, selects different factors, which could be blamed of uncertainty in the coin return. The results indicate that the effect of sudden changes of standard deviation and after a 14-day period disappears and gold price goes back to its initial position. In addition, in this study we observe the so-called leverage effect in Iran’s Gold coin market, which means the good news leads to more volatility in futures market than bad news in an equal size. Finally, the result of analysis of variance implies that in the short-term, a large percentage change in uncertainty of the coin return is due to changes in the same factors and volatility of stock returns in the medium term, global gold output, oil price and exchange rate fluctuation to some extent will show the impact. In the long run, the effects of parameters are more evident.

  12. Assessing market uncertainty by means of a time-varying intermittency parameter for asset price fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rypdal, Martin; Sirnes, Espen; Løvsletten, Ola; Rypdal, Kristoffer

    2013-08-01

    Maximum likelihood estimation techniques for multifractal processes are applied to high-frequency data in order to quantify intermittency in the fluctuations of asset prices. From time records as short as one month these methods permit extraction of a meaningful intermittency parameter λ characterising the degree of volatility clustering. We can therefore study the time evolution of volatility clustering and test the statistical significance of this variability. By analysing data from the Oslo Stock Exchange, and comparing the results with the investment grade spread, we find that the estimates of λ are lower at times of high market uncertainty.

  13. Optimal designs of small CHP plants in a market with fluctuating electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, H.; Andersen, A.N.

    2005-01-01

    Combined Heat and Power production (CHP) are essential for implementation of the climate change response objectives in many countries. In an introduction period, small CHP plants have typically been offered fixed electricity prices, but in many countries, such pricing conditions are now being replaced by spot market prices. Consequently, new methodologies and tools for the optimisation of small CHP plant designs are needed. The small CHP plants in Denmark are already experienced in optimising their electricity production against the triple tariff, which has existed for almost 10 years. Consequently, the CHP plants have long term experience in organising when to switch on and off the CHP units in order to optimise their profit. Also, the CHP owners have long term experience in designing their plants. For instance, small CHP plants in Denmark have usually invested in excess capacity on the CHP units in combination with heat storage capacity. Thereby, the plants have increased their performance in order to optimise revenues. This paper presents the Danish experience with methodologies and software tools, which have been used to design investment and operation strategies for almost all small CHP plants in Denmark during the decade of the triple tariff. Moreover, the changes in such methodologies and tools in order to optimise performance in a market with fluctuating electricity prices are presented and discussed

  14. THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS OF PRICE STABILITY AS PART OF THE FINANCIAL STABILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Magdalena RĂDULESCU; Marinela TANASCOVICI

    2012-01-01

    Currently there are many authors who consider that the only objective of the central bank should be the price stability and between the respective objective and financial stability there is incompatibility. As far we are concerned, we subscribe the idea that between price stability and financial stability there are complementarities. And a strong argument in the favour of this position is also historical. Actually, many older or newer facts show that banking crises were often caused by the un...

  15. THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS OF PRICE STABILITY AS PART OF THE FINANCIAL STABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena RĂDULESCU

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Currently there are many authors who consider that the only objective of the central bank should be the price stability and between the respective objective and financial stability there is incompatibility. As far we are concerned, we subscribe the idea that between price stability and financial stability there are complementarities. And a strong argument in the favour of this position is also historical. Actually, many older or newer facts show that banking crises were often caused by the unfavourable macroeconomic situation coupled with the bad macroeconomic policies carried by the authorities. But, a monetary policy that aims the price stability reduces this risk. The truth is that the central banks have a series of tools that allow them to act for achieving both the objective of price stability, and that of the stability of financial sector. Although the financial stability is not, usually, an explicit objective for the modern central bank, the systematic financial instability can cancel their performances in achieving their major final objective: the price stability. Being that, because of the need that it creates to inject additional liquidity into the banking system, a crisis of the banking sector may directly affect the monetary stability. Here the mentioned complementarities arise between price stability and financial stability, although the achievement of the first does not necessarily involve the assurance of the last.

  16. Asymmetric statistical features of the Chinese domestic and international gold price fluctuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Guangxi; Zhao, Yingchao; Han, Yan

    2015-05-01

    Analyzing the statistical features of fluctuation is remarkably significant for financial risk identification and measurement. In this study, the asymmetric detrended fluctuation analysis (A-DFA) method was applied to evaluate asymmetric multifractal scaling behaviors in the Shanghai and New York gold markets. Our findings showed that the multifractal features of the Chinese and international gold spot markets were asymmetric. The gold return series persisted longer in an increasing trend than in a decreasing trend. Moreover, the asymmetric degree of multifractals in the Chinese and international gold markets decreased with the increase in fluctuation range. In addition, the empirical analysis using sliding window technology indicated that multifractal asymmetry in the Chinese and international gold markets was characterized by its time-varying feature. However, the Shanghai and international gold markets basically shared a similar asymmetric degree evolution pattern. The American subprime mortgage crisis (2008) and the European debt crisis (2010) enhanced the asymmetric degree of the multifractal features of the Chinese and international gold markets. Furthermore, we also make statistical tests for the results of multifractatity and asymmetry, and discuss the origin of them. Finally, results of the empirical analysis using the threshold autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (TARCH) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models exhibited that good news had a more significant effect on the cyclical fluctuation of the gold market than bad news. Moreover, good news exerted a more significant effect on the Chinese gold market than on the international gold market.

  17. Forecasting energy market indices with recurrent neural networks: Case study of crude oil price fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun

    2016-01-01

    In an attempt to improve the forecasting accuracy of crude oil price fluctuations, a new neural network architecture is established in this work which combines Multilayer perception and ERNN (Elman recurrent neural networks) with stochastic time effective function. ERNN is a time-varying predictive control system and is developed with the ability to keep memory of recent events in order to predict future output. The stochastic time effective function represents that the recent information has a stronger effect for the investors than the old information. With the established model the empirical research has a good performance in testing the predictive effects on four different time series indices. Compared to other models, the present model is possible to evaluate data from 1990s to today with extreme accuracy and speedy. The applied CID (complexity invariant distance) analysis and multiscale CID analysis, are provided as the new useful measures to evaluate a better predicting ability of the proposed model than other traditional models. - Highlights: • A new forecasting model is developed by a random Elman recurrent neural network. • The forecasting accuracy of crude oil price fluctuations is improved by the model. • The forecasting results of the proposed model are more accurate than compared models. • Two new distance analysis methods are applied to confirm the predicting results.

  18. Financial Flexibility in Highly Regulated Market: Indonesian Telecommunication Case during Tariff Pricing War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Arief Rijanto

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In year 2008, regulation of Indonesian telecommunicationindustries changes due the tariff pricing war within Telecommunication operator. This regulation tie up the telecommunication operator and affect operating revenue margin.The needs of financial flexibility within tele communication firm is increased.Capex, operating revenue and reinvestment needs to be flexible must be inline with competition and change of technology. This paper goals is measuring financial flexibility based on Capex, operating revenue and re-investment needs.Re-investment needs by Telecommunication operator can be financed with or without financial flexibility. Data from year 2007 up to 2014 is selected to accommodate before and after changes of telecommunication regulation. The regulation effect to financial flexibility of telecommunication firm is still relevantbecause telecommunication industries by nature needs larger capital to re-new the telecommunication technology. Real options method will be used to measure financial flexibility.Keywords: Financial flexibility, Price war, Telecommunication Regulation, Real Option

  19. Identifying Financially Sustainable Pricing Interventions to Promote Healthier Beverage Purchases in Small Neighborhood Stores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nau, Claudia; Kumanyika, Shiriki; Gittelsohn, Joel; Adam, Atif; Wong, Michelle S; Mui, Yeeli; Lee, Bruce Y

    2018-01-25

    Residents of low-income communities often purchase sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) at small, neighborhood "corner" stores. Lowering water prices and increasing SSB prices are potentially complementary public health strategies to promote more healthful beverage purchasing patterns in these stores. Sustainability, however, depends on financial feasibility. Because in-store pricing experiments are complex and require retailers to take business risks, we used a simulation approach to identify profitable pricing combinations for corner stores. The analytic approach was based on inventory models, which are suitable for modeling business operations. We used discrete-event simulation to build inventory models that use data representing beverage inventory, wholesale costs, changes in retail prices, and consumer demand for 2 corner stores in Baltimore, Maryland. Model outputs yielded ranges for water and SSB prices that increased water demand without loss of profit from combined water and SSB sales. A 20% SSB price increase allowed lowering water prices by up to 20% while maintaining profit and increased water demand by 9% and 14%, for stores selling SSBs in 12-oz cans and 16- to 20-oz bottles, respectively. Without changing water prices, profits could increase by 4% and 6%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that stores with a higher volume of SSB sales could reduce water prices the most without loss of profit. Various combinations of SSB and water prices could encourage water consumption while maintaining or increasing store owners' profits. This model is a first step in designing and implementing profitable pricing strategies in collaboration with store owners.

  20. Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Creti, Anna; Ftiti, Zied; Guesmi, Khaled

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters' markets than in the importers' ones. - Highlights: • A new time-varying measure for the stock markets and oil price relationship in different horizons. • We propose a new empirical methodology: multivariate frequency approach. • We propose a comparison between oil importing and exporting countries. • We show that oil is not always countercyclical with respect to stock markets. • When high oil prices originate from supply shocks, oil is countercyclical with stock markets

  1. Factors Influencing Pricing Decision: Evidence from Non-Financial Firms in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luqman Olawale

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the significant factors influencing pricing decision in Nigeria. The study is based on the appraisal of the factors that influence pricing decision using 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE in 2013. The cross sectional data was obtained from annual reports of the sampled firms which were analyzed based on OrdinaryRegression model. The results revealed that cost of sales has an insignificant positive effect on pricing policy, while company’s objective and consumer perception has significant positive relationship on pricing policy. On the external determinants, market demand and availability of close substitute has a significant negative effect on pricing policy while macroeconomic trend and market segment has insignificant negative effect on pricing policy. This study therefore suggests among others that, effort should be made on reducing cost of production in order to maximize profit.

  2. Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management =

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madaleno, Mara Teresa da Silva

    This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing

  3. Option pricing from wavelet-filtered financial series

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, V. T. X.; Moriconi, L.

    2012-10-01

    We perform wavelet decomposition of high frequency financial time series into large and small time scale components. Taking the FTSE100 index as a case study, and working with the Haar basis, it turns out that the small scale component defined by most (≃99.6%) of the wavelet coefficients can be neglected for the purpose of option premium evaluation. The relevance of the hugely compressed information provided by low-pass wavelet-filtering is related to the fact that the non-gaussian statistical structure of the original financial time series is essentially preserved for expiration times which are larger than just one trading day.

  4. The Financial Indicators’ and Listed Company‘s Stock Price Link Determining the Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rima Tamošiūnienė

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The demand for value determination increased after rising of the Lithuanian economics. The joint-stock company value depends on the stock price and the company’s profit according to the “stock pricing for profit” method. The purpose of this scientific paper is the financial indicators’ and listed company’s stock price link determining the value. The analysis methods are: the research of scientific literature, data analysis, summarizing and graphic visualization. The link between financial indicators and the stock price is determined on the basis of correlation regression analysis. The analysis showed that listed on the stock exchange company’s stocks already have some value as they raise the capital. The research results revealed the stock price’s direct dependence on the fixed asset turnover and the debt-to-asset ratios.

  5. THE NEW ERA OF FINANCIAL INNOVATION: THE DETERMINANTS OF BITCOIN’S PRICE

    OpenAIRE

    Sukamulja, Sukmawati; Sikora, Cornelia Olivia

    2018-01-01

    Financial innovation has entered a new era in which a digitalized system and cryptocurrency have been created. This paper examines the factors that influence the price movement of bitcoin. This is not a legal currency in Indonesia; the Indonesian government has not made any regulations legalizing bitcoin’s use, but it has also not issued any new laws to prohibit the trade in bitcoins and other digital currencies. The demand for, and price growth of, bitcoin are interesting matters to study, e...

  6. Financial intermediation and the role of price discrimination in a two-tier market

    OpenAIRE

    Reitz, Stefan; Schmidt, Markus A.; Taylor, Mark P.

    2009-01-01

    Though unambiguously outperforming all other financial markets in terms of liquidity, foreign exchange trading is still performed in opaque and decentralized markets. In particular, the two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market makers have access gives rise to the possibility of price discrimination. We provide a theoretical foreign exchange pricing model that accounts for market power considerations and analyze a database of th...

  7. Price dynamics of the financial markets using the stochastic differential equation for a potential double well

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, L. S.; Miranda, L. L. B.

    2018-01-01

    We have used the Itô's stochastic differential equation for the double well with additive white noise as a mathematical model for price dynamics of the financial market. We have presented a model which allows us to test within the same framework the comparative explanatory power of rational agents versus irrational agents, with respect to the facts of financial markets. We have obtained the mean price in terms of the β parameter that represents the force of the randomness term of the model.

  8. Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saleh Alodayni

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the effect of the recent 2014–2015 oil price slump on the financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC region. The first objective of this paper is to assess how oil price shock propagates within the macroeconomy and how the macro shocks transmit to GCC banks’ balance sheets. This part of the paper implements a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM and a Panel Fixed Effect Model to estimate the response of nonperforming loans (NPLs to its macroeconomic determinants. The second objective of this paper is to assess any negative feedback effects between the GCC banking systems and the economy. The paper, therefore, implements a Panel VAR model to explore the macro-financial linkages between GCC banking systems and the real economy. The results indicate that oil price, non-oil GDP, interest rate, stock prices, and housing prices are major determinants of NPLs across GCC banks and the overall financial stability in the region. Credit risk shock tends to propagate disturbances to non-oil GDP, credit growth, and stock prices across GCC economies. A higher level of NPLs restricts banks’ credit growth and can dampen economic growth in these economies. The results support the notion that disturbances in banking systems lead to unwanted economic consequences for the real sector.

  9. The fluctuations in oil prices in the OPEC countries and the impact on the world oil market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buryanova N.V.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available the article examines the issues of influence of OPEC countries on the international oil market. Also, the author analyzes the state of the oil market and fluctuations in oil prices at the macroeconomic level for 2011–2016.

  10. Electricity prices in a competitive environment: Marginal cost pricing of generation services and financial status of electric utilities. A preliminary analysis through 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-08-01

    The emergence of competitive markets for electricity generation services is changing the way that electricity is and will be priced in the United States. This report presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated open-quotes cost-of-serviceclose quotes pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers? This study is not intended to be a cost-benefit analysis of wholesale or retail competition, nor does this report include an analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of competitive electricity prices

  11. Electricity prices in a competitive environment: Marginal cost pricing of generation services and financial status of electric utilities. A preliminary analysis through 2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-08-01

    The emergence of competitive markets for electricity generation services is changing the way that electricity is and will be priced in the United States. This report presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated {open_quotes}cost-of-service{close_quotes} pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers? This study is not intended to be a cost-benefit analysis of wholesale or retail competition, nor does this report include an analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of competitive electricity prices.

  12. Financial Position and House Price Determination : An Empirical Study of Income and Wealth Effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steegmans, J.W.A.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/377458708; Hassink, W.H.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/090437411

    This paper examines the effect of the relative financial position of buyers and sellers on house prices, distinguishing between income and wealth effects. Using administrative data from the Netherlands (2006–2010) that combine transaction data, house characteristics, and household characteristics of

  13. Financial analysis of potential retrospective premium assessments under the Price-Anderson system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, R.S.

    1985-04-01

    Ten representative nuclear utilities have been analyzed over the period 1981 to 1983 to evaluate the effects of three levels of retrospective premiums on various financial indicators. This analysis continues and expands on earlier analyses prepared as background for deliberations by the US Congress for possible extension or modification of the Price-Anderson Act

  14. Detrended fluctuation analysis based on higher-order moments of financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Yue; Shang, Pengjian

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a generalized method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is proposed as a new measure to assess the complexity of a complex dynamical system such as stock market. We extend DFA and local scaling DFA to higher moments such as skewness and kurtosis (labeled SMDFA and KMDFA), so as to investigate the volatility scaling property of financial time series. Simulations are conducted over synthetic and financial data for providing the comparative study. We further report the results of volatility behaviors in three American countries, three Chinese and three European stock markets by using DFA and LSDFA method based on higher moments. They demonstrate the dynamics behaviors of time series in different aspects, which can quantify the changes of complexity for stock market data and provide us with more meaningful information than single exponent. And the results reveal some higher moments volatility and higher moments multiscale volatility details that cannot be obtained using the traditional DFA method.

  15. Rising Prices of Targeted Oral Anticancer Medications and Associated Financial Burden on Medicare Beneficiaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Xu, Ying; Liu, Lei; Smieliauskas, Fabrice

    2017-08-01

    Purpose The high cost of oncology drugs threatens the affordability of cancer care. Previous research identified drivers of price growth of targeted oral anticancer medications (TOAMs) in private insurance plans and projected the impact of closing the coverage gap in Medicare Part D in 2020. This study examined trends in TOAM prices and patient out-of-pocket (OOP) payments in Medicare Part D and estimated the actual effects on patient OOP payments of partial filling of the coverage gap by 2012. Methods Using SEER linked to Medicare Part D, 2007 to 2012, we identified patients who take TOAMs via National Drug Codes in Part D claims. We calculated total drug costs (prices) and OOP payments per patient per month and compared their rates of inflation with general health care prices. Results The study cohort included 42,111 patients who received TOAMs between 2007 and 2012. Although the general prescription drug consumer price index grew at 3% per year over 2007 to 2012, mean TOAM prices increased by nearly 12% per year, reaching $7,719 per patient per month in 2012. Prices increased over time for newly and previously launched TOAMs. Mean patient OOP payments dropped by 4% per year over the study period, with a 40% drop among patients with a high financial burden in 2011, when the coverage gap began to close. Conclusion Rising TOAM prices threaten the financial relief patients have begun to experience under closure of the coverage gap in Medicare Part D. Policymakers should explore methods of harnessing the surge of novel TOAMs to increase price competition for Medicare beneficiaries.

  16. Towards and Effective Financial Management: Relevance of Dividend Discount Model in Stock Price Valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Mugoša

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze the relevance of dividend discount model, i.e. its specific form in stock price estimation known as Gordon growth model. The expected dividends can be a measure of cash flows returned to the stockholder. In this context, the model is useful for assessment of how risk factors, such as interest rates and changing inflation rates, affect stock returns. This is especially important in case when investors are value oriented, i.e. when expected dividends are theirmain investing drivers. We compared the estimated with the actual stock price values and tested the statistical significance of price differences in 199 publicly traded European companies for the period2010-2013. Statistical difference between pairs of price series (actual and estimated was tested using Wilcoxon and Kruskal-Wallis tests of median and distribution equality. The hypothesis that Gordon growth model cannot be reliable measure of stock price valuation on European equity market over period of 2010-2013 due to influence of the global financial crisis was rejected with 95% confidence. Gordon growth model has proven to be reliable measure of stock price valuation even over period of strong global financial crisis influence.

  17. Financial Flexibility in Highly Regulated Market: Indonesian Telecommunication Case during Tariff Pricing War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Arief Rijanto

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In year 2008, regulation of Indonesian telecommunicationindustries changes due the tariff pricing war within Telecommunication opera-tor. This regulation tie up the telecommunication operator and affect operating revenue margin.The needs of financial flexibility within tele-communication firm is increased.Capex, operating revenue and reinvestment needs to be flexible must be inline with competition and change of technology. This paper goals is measuring financial flexibility based on Capex, operating revenue and re-investment needs.Reinvestment needs by Telecommunication operator can be financed with or without financial flexibility. Data from year 2007 up to 2014 is selec-ted to accommodate before and after changes of telecommunication regulation. The regulation effect to financial flexibility of telecommu-nication firm is still relevantbecause telecommunication industries by nature needs larger capital to re-new the telecommunication technology. Real options method will be used to measure financial flexibility.

  18. Rational expectations and the effects of financial liberalization on price level and output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rangan Gupta

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a generalized short-term model of a small open financially repressed economy, characterized by unorganized money markets, intermediate goods imports, capital mobility, flexible exchange rates and rational expectations, to analyze the price- and output-effects of financial liberalization. The analysis shows that financial deregulation, in the form of increased rate of interest on deposits and higher cash reserve requirements, unambiguously and unconditionally reduces domestic price level, but fails to affect output. Moreover, the result does not depend on the degree of capital mobility. The paper recommends that a small open developing economy should deregulate interest rates and tighten monetary policy if reducing inflation is a priority. Such a policy, however, requires the establishment of a flexible exchange rate regime.

  19. Oil price fluctuations and their impact on the macroeconomic variables of Kuwait: a case study using a VAR model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eltony, M. Nagy; Al-Awadi, Mohammad

    2001-01-01

    In this study, a vector autoregression model (VAR) and a vector error correction model (VECM) were estimated to examine the impact of oil price fluctuations on seven key macroeconomic variables for the Kuwaiti economy. Quarterly data for the period 1984-1998 were utilised. Theoretically and empirically speaking, VECM is superior to the VAR approach. Also, the results corresponding to the VECM model are closer to common sense. However, the estimated models indicate a high degree of interrelation between major macroeconomic variables. The empirical results highlight the causality running from the oil prices and oil revenues, to government development and current expenditure and then towards other variables. For the most part, the empirical evidence indicates that oil price shocks and hence oil revenues have a notable impact on government expenditure, both development and current. However, government development expenditure has been influenced relatively more. The results also point out the significant of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand, the variations in value of imports are mostly accounted for by oil revenue fluctuations. On the other hand, the variations in value of imports are mostly accounted for by oil revenue fluctuations and then by the fluctuation in government development expenditures. Also, the results from the VECM approach indicate that a significant part of LM2 variance is explained by the variance in oil revenue. It reaches about 46 per cent in the 10th quarter, even more than its own variations. (Author)

  20. On the relationship between financial measures and contractor pricing strategy: Empirical tests in the defense aerospace industry

    OpenAIRE

    Moses, O. Douglas

    1987-01-01

    This report includes two separate but related empirical studies of the relationship between financial measures for defense aerospace contractors and pricing strategies adopted by contractors. Two pricing strategies are identified: skimming and penetration. Collectively the findings indicate that the adoption of a particular pricing strategy is associated with the financial condition of the contractor as reflected in measures of risk, asset utilization and organizational slack. Keywords: Finan...

  1. Characterization of large price variations in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, Anders

    2003-06-01

    Statistics of drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum) plays an important role in risk assessment of investment strategies. As they incorporate higher (> two) order correlations, they offer a better measure of real market risks than the variance or other cumulants of daily (or some other fixed time scale) of returns. Previous results have shown that the vast majority of drawdowns occurring on the major financial markets have a distribution which is well represented by a stretched exponential, while the largest drawdowns are occurring with a significantly larger rate than predicted by the bulk of the distribution and should thus be characterized as outliers (Eur. Phys. J. B 1 (1998) 141; J. Risk 2001). In the present analysis, the definition of drawdowns is generalized to coarse-grained drawdowns or so-called ε-drawdowns and a link between such ε- outliers and preceding log-periodic power law bubbles previously identified (Quantitative Finance 1 (2001) 452) is established.

  2. The oil price crash in 2014/15: Was there a (negative) financial bubble?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantazzini, Dean

    2016-01-01

    This paper suggests that there was a negative bubble in oil prices in 2014/15, which decreased them beyond the level justified by economic fundamentals. This proposition is corroborated by two sets of bubble detection strategies: the first set consists of tests for financial bubbles, while the second set consists of the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model for negative financial bubbles. Despite the methodological differences between these detection methods, they provided the same outcome: the oil price experienced a statistically significant negative financial bubble in the last months of 2014 and at the beginning of 2015. These results also hold after several robustness checks which consider the effect of conditional heteroskedasticity, model set-ups with additional restrictions, longer data samples, tests with lower frequency data and with an alternative proxy variable to measure the fundamental value of oil. - Highlights: •There was a negative bubble in oil prices in 2014/15. •This bubble decreased oil prices beyond the level justified by economic fundamentals. •Several bubble detection methods confirm this evidence.

  3. Financial Fundamental Influence Analysis, SBI Interest Level and the Inflation Level of Share Price Movement

    OpenAIRE

    Sularto, Lana; Permana, Yogi

    2008-01-01

    A number of relevant information is required by investors who are interested in investing their funds in a capital market, especially in the form of stocks. An efficient capital market is that market that provides all relevant information to stock prices. This information could be obtained through fundamental financial performance of emiten and macroeconomic conditions. The present study aims are to analyze the effect of fundamen...

  4. Financial Brownian Particle in the Layered Order-Book Fluid and Fluctuation-Dissipation Relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yura, Yoshihiro; Takayasu, Hideki; Sornette, Didier; Takayasu, Misako

    2014-03-01

    We introduce a novel description of the dynamics of the order book of financial markets as that of an effective colloidal Brownian particle embedded in fluid particles. The analysis of comprehensive market data enables us to identify all motions of the fluid particles. Correlations between the motions of the Brownian particle and its surrounding fluid particles reflect specific layering interactions; in the inner layer the correlation is strong and with short memory, while in the outer layer it is weaker and with long memory. By interpreting and estimating the contribution from the outer layer as a drag resistance, we demonstrate the validity of the fluctuation-dissipation relation in this nonmaterial Brownian motion process.

  5. Exploring the dynamics of financial markets: from stock prices to strategy returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borland, Lisa

    2016-01-01

    Exploring the dynamics of financial time-series is an exciting and interesting challenge because of the many truly complex interactions that underly the price formation process. In this contribution we describe some of the anomalous statistical features of such time-series and review models of the price dynamics both across time and across the universe of stocks. In particular we discuss a non-Gaussian statistical feedback process of stock returns which we have developed over the past years with the particular application of option pricing. We then discuss a cooperative model for the correlations of stock dynamics which has its roots in the field of synergetics, where numerical simulations and comparisons with real data are presented. Finally we present summarized results of an empirical analysis probing the dynamics of actual trading strategy return streams.

  6. Financial sustainability for a lignocellulosic biorefinery under carbon constraints and price downside risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Lingfeng; Anderson, C. Lindsay

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Stochastic program determines production, risk management strategy for biorefinery. • Scheduled production commitment decreases as tiered carbon tax rate increases. • Risk averse producers prefer the forward contract as a mode of product sales. • Time varying forward prices and inventory enable producers to increase profits. • Inventory is beneficial to producers, below the threshold for inventory costs. - Abstract: The development of an environmentally sustainable and financially viable replacement for fossil fuels continues to elude industry investors even though the benefits of replacing them is undisputed. Biofuels are among the promising replacements for fossil fuels. However, the development and production process for bio-based fuels creates uncertainty for industry investors. In order to increase process profitability, financial tools can be implemented with current technology. This paper proposes the use of forward contracts to mitigate risk, and it also considers the impact of carbon tax constraints and price uncertainty. Specifically, a stochastic optimization approach is implemented to develop strategies, which increases the net present value (NPV) of a production facility through determination of an optimal production schedule, as well as the creation of a portfolio of forward contracts to reduce product price risk. Results of numerical case studies show that if the policymaker is risk averse, production is higher in the early planning period rather than the later period. This paper also investigates the ability to maintain inventory in order to create additional financial benefit.

  7. A queueing theory description of fat-tailed price returns in imperfect financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamba, H.

    2010-09-01

    In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of price thresholds to simulate agent behavior over much longer timescales than are currently used in models of order-books. We show that many phenomena, routinely ignored in efficient market theory, can be systematically introduced into an otherwise efficient market, resulting in models that robustly replicate the most important stylized facts. We then demonstrate a close link between such threshold models and queueing theory, with large price changes corresponding to the busy periods of a single-server queue. The distribution of the busy periods is known to have excess kurtosis and non-exponential decay under various assumptions on the queue parameters. Such an approach may prove useful in the development of mathematical models for rapid deleveraging and panics in financial markets, and the stress-testing of financial institutions.

  8. Financial markets as adaptive systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potters, M.; Cont, R.; Bouchaud, J.-P.

    1998-02-01

    We show, by studying in detail the market prices of options on liquid markets, that the market has empirically corrected the simple, but inadequate Black-Scholes formula to account for two important statistical features of asset fluctuations: "fat tails" and correlations in the scale of fluctuations. These aspects, although not included in the pricing models, are very precisely reflected in the price fixed by the market as a whole. Financial markets thus behave as rather efficient adaptive systems.

  9. The impact of gasoline price fluctuations on lodging demand for US brand hotels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, Kate; Enz, Cathy A.; Canina, Linda

    2004-01-01

    Analyzing US brand hotels, over a 13-year period, this study provides empirical evidence of a significant negative relationship between gasoline prices and demand for certain lodging products, controlling for economic factors (i.e. gross domestic product and population density). Applying principles from microeconomic demand theory to the literature on gasoline price elasticities, consumer demographics and lodging demand, a set of hypotheses were devised to test the relationship between gasoline prices and lodging demand for specific hotel locations and price segments. Using fixed effects models, the results reveal that lodging demand decreases as gasoline prices rise in all segments except upper-upscale and all locations except urban areas. Hotels in midscale without food and beverage and economy market segments, in resort, suburban and highway locations, exhibit the greatest association between gasoline price shifts and demand. Implications of these findings are discussed for both hospitality research and practice. (Author)

  10. The impact of gasoline price fluctuations on lodging demand for US brand hotels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Kate; Enz, Cathy A.; Canina, Linda [Cornell Univ., School of Hotel Administration, Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2004-12-01

    Analyzing US brand hotels, over a 13-year period, this study provides empirical evidence of a significant negative relationship between gasoline prices and demand for certain lodging products, controlling for economic factors (i.e. gross domestic product and population density). Applying principles from microeconomic demand theory to the literature on gasoline price elasticities, consumer demographics and lodging demand, a set of hypotheses were devised to test the relationship between gasoline prices and lodging demand for specific hotel locations and price segments. Using fixed effects models, the results reveal that lodging demand decreases as gasoline prices rise in all segments except upper-upscale and all locations except urban areas. Hotels in midscale without food and beverage and economy market segments, in resort, suburban and highway locations, exhibit the greatest association between gasoline price shifts and demand. Implications of these findings are discussed for both hospitality research and practice. (Author)

  11. Enhanced capital-asset pricing model for the reconstruction of bipartite financial networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squartini, Tiziano; Almog, Assaf; Caldarelli, Guido; van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego; Cimini, Giulio

    2017-09-01

    Reconstructing patterns of interconnections from partial information is one of the most important issues in the statistical physics of complex networks. A paramount example is provided by financial networks. In fact, the spreading and amplification of financial distress in capital markets are strongly affected by the interconnections among financial institutions. Yet, while the aggregate balance sheets of institutions are publicly disclosed, information on single positions is mostly confidential and, as such, unavailable. Standard approaches to reconstruct the network of financial interconnection produce unrealistically dense topologies, leading to a biased estimation of systemic risk. Moreover, reconstruction techniques are generally designed for monopartite networks of bilateral exposures between financial institutions, thus failing in reproducing bipartite networks of security holdings (e.g., investment portfolios). Here we propose a reconstruction method based on constrained entropy maximization, tailored for bipartite financial networks. Such a procedure enhances the traditional capital-asset pricing model (CAPM) and allows us to reproduce the correct topology of the network. We test this enhanced CAPM (ECAPM) method on a dataset, collected by the European Central Bank, of detailed security holdings of European institutional sectors over a period of six years (2009-2015). Our approach outperforms the traditional CAPM and the recently proposed maximum-entropy CAPM both in reproducing the network topology and in estimating systemic risk due to fire sales spillovers. In general, ECAPM can be applied to the whole class of weighted bipartite networks described by the fitness model.

  12. Anchoring effect on first passage process in Taiwan financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hsing; Liao, Chi-Yo; Ko, Jing-Yuan; Lih, Jiann-Shing

    2017-07-01

    Empirical analysis of the price fluctuations of financial markets has received extensive attention because a substantial amount of financial market data has been collected and because of advances in data-mining techniques. Price fluctuation trends can help investors to make informed trading decisions, but such decisions may also be affected by a psychological factors-the anchoring effect. This study explores the intraday price time series of Taiwan futures, and applies diffusion model and quantitative methods to analyze the relationship between the anchoring effect and price fluctuations during first passage process. Our results indicate that power-law scaling and anomalous diffusion for stock price fluctuations are related to the anchoring effect. Moreover, microscopic price fluctuations before switching point in first passage process correspond with long-term price fluctuations of Taiwan's stock market. We find that microscopic trends could provide useful information for understanding macroscopic trends in stock markets.

  13. The impacts of petroleum price fluctuations on income distribution across ethnic groups in Malaysia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saari, M. Yusof; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart

    2016-01-01

    Crude oil price hikes have compelled governments of developing countries to let domestic prices of energy increase. Fiscal priorities made it impossible to fully compensate the hikes by raising energy subsidies. This paper examines the potential impacts of a limited deregulation of the petroleum

  14. OPEC's production under fluctuating oil prices. Further test of the target revenue theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramcharran, H.

    2001-01-01

    Oil production cutbacks in recent years by OPEC members to stabilize price and to increase revenues warrant further empirical verification of the target revenue theory (TRT). We estimate a modified version of Griffin (1985) target revenue model using data from 1973 to 2000. The sample period, unlike previous investigations, includes phases of both price increase (1970s) and price decrease (1980s-1990s), thus providing a better framework for examining production behavior. The results, like the earlier study, are not supportive of the strict version of the TRT, however, evidence (negative and significant elasticity of supply) of the partial version are substantiated. Further empirical estimates do not support the competitive pricing model, hypothesizing a positive elasticity of supply. OPEC's loss of market share and the drop in the share of oil-based energy should signal an adjustment in pricing and production strategies

  15. GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND AGRARIAN HOUSEHOLDS' INCOME, REMITTANCE AND PRICES IN RURAL NIGERIA AMID POLICY RESPONSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mmaduabuchukwu Mkpado

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The recent global financial crisis affected almost all aspect of human life. This paper explored effects of the global financial crisis on farmers' income, remittance and prices of food staples and highlighted certain government policy responses. The study was conducted in Nigeria. Secondary data were used. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, equivalent variation and Shannon index analysis. Results showed the global financial crisis affected the agrarian households/sector in Nigeria. The increase in prices meant more nominal income to farmers but grossly reduced their welfare due to decrease in real income as result of high inflation trend. Recommendations include that government should continue to sustain agrarian programs aimed at helping poor farmers to increase their capacity in production to meet the growing demand and changes. In both cases, the disturbed age structure has a reverse effect on the movement of the population (the size of reproductive contingent, but also to all other structures of the population (the size of contingent employment, population, compulsory school contingent, contingent dependent population ratio. Rating natural conditions aimed at separation of homogenous territorial units with some degree of benefits and limitations types of economic development.

  16. The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Sanidas, Elias

    2005-01-01

    The Australian dollar’s exchange rate (mainly in relation to the American dollar) has received a considerable attention in research and several models have been proposed to explain its trend and fluctuations. Thus, as a conclusion of this research we can say that this commodity currency very much depends on the terms of trade which in turn depend on commodity prices. The present paper is based on this conclusion and hence proposes the possibility that the Australian dollar’s behavior is overw...

  17. Coordinated clinical and financial analysis as a powerful tool to influence vendor pricing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Catherine A; Wu, Roger Y; Mulley, Debra; Smith, Paul C; Schwaitzberg, Steven D

    2010-01-01

    As costs continue to outpace reimbursements, hospital administrators and clinicians face increasing pressure to justify new capital purchases. Massachusetts Health Care Reform has added further economic challenges for Disproportionate Share Hospitals (DSH), as resources formerly available to treat the uninsured have been redirected. In this challenging climate, many hospitals still lack a standardized process for technology planning and/or vendor negotiation. : The purpose of this study was to determine whether a simple, coordinated clinical and financial analysis of a technology, Endoscopic Carpal Tunnel Release (ECTR), is sufficient to impact vendor pricing at Cambridge Health Alliance (CHA), a disproportionate share hospital (DSH) in Cambridge, Massachusetts. This case study addressed the topic of technology adoption, a complex decision-making process every hospital administration faces. Taking note of other hospitals approaches to instill a strategic management culture, CHA combined a literature review on clinical outcomes and financial analysis on profitability. Clinical effectiveness was evaluated through a literature review. The financial analysis was based on a retrospective inquiry of fixed and variable costs, reimbursement rates, actual payer mix, and profitability of adopting ECTR over open carpal tunnel release at CHA. This clinical and financial analysis was then shared with the vendor. A literature review revealed that although there are short-term benefits to ECTR, there is little to no difference in long-term outcomes to justify a calculated incremental loss of $91.49 in revenue per case. Sharing this analysis with the vendor resulted in a 30% price reduction. A revised cost analysis demonstrated a $53.51 incremental gain in revenue per case. CHA has since elected to offer ECTR to its patients. Smaller hospital systems often have modest leverage in vendor negotiations. Our results suggest that the development of adoption criteria and an evidence

  18. Jakarta Islamic Index-L 45: Rate Financial Performance, Beta Stocks and Stock Price in Indonesian Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tajus Subqi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This research had analyzed the effect of financial performance and stock beta (systematic risk towards stock price of eight listed companies in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII – LQ 45 for the time period of 2012-2014. The data was gathered by employing literature study and documentation of financial statements. Multiple regressions are used to measure the effect of independent variable towards dependent variable along with ttest and F test. The results based on overall test suggested that only ROE and NPM had opposite direction correlation with the stock price, meanwhile other variables had positive direction correlation. From partial test with 5% level of significance, only EPS and PER had significant effect on stock price while other variables had no effect.   Keywords: financial performance analysis, stock price, stock beta (systematic risk, Jakarta Islamic Index

  19. Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

    2016-10-01

    One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

  20. Randomness confidence bands of fractal scaling exponents for financial price returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibarra-Valdez, C.; Alvarez, J.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A robust test for randomness of price returns is proposed. • The DFA scaling exponent is contrasted against confidence bands for random sequences. • The size of the band depends of the sequence length. • Crude oil and USA stock markets have been rarely inefficient. - Abstract: The weak-form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) establishes that price returns behave as a pure random process and so their outcomes cannot be forecasted. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) has been widely used to test the weak-form of the EMH by showing that time series of price returns are serially uncorrelated. In this case, the DFA scaling exponent exhibits deviations from the theoretical value of 0.5. This work considers the test of the EMH for DFA implementation on a sliding window, which is an approach that is intended to monitor the evolution of markets. Under these conditions, the scaling exponent exhibits important variations over the scrutinized period that can offer valuable insights in the behavior of the market provided the estimated scaling value is kept within strict statistical tests to verify the presence or not of serial correlations in the price returns. In this work, the statistical tests are based on comparing the estimated scaling exponent with the values obtained from pure Gaussian sequences with the length of the real time series. In this way, the presence of serial correlations can be guaranteed only in terms of the confidence bands of a pure Gaussian process. The crude oil (WTI) and the USA stock (DJIA) markets are used to illustrate the methodology.

  1. Analytic Approximations to the Free Boundary and Multi-dimensional Problems in Financial Derivatives Pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Chun Sing

    This thesis studies two types of problems in financial derivatives pricing. The first type is the free boundary problem, which can be formulated as a partial differential equation (PDE) subject to a set of free boundary condition. Although the functional form of the free boundary condition is given explicitly, the location of the free boundary is unknown and can only be determined implicitly by imposing continuity conditions on the solution. Two specific problems are studied in details, namely the valuation of fixed-rate mortgages and CEV American options. The second type is the multi-dimensional problem, which involves multiple correlated stochastic variables and their governing PDE. One typical problem we focus on is the valuation of basket-spread options, whose underlying asset prices are driven by correlated geometric Brownian motions (GBMs). Analytic approximate solutions are derived for each of these three problems. For each of the two free boundary problems, we propose a parametric moving boundary to approximate the unknown free boundary, so that the original problem transforms into a moving boundary problem which can be solved analytically. The governing parameter of the moving boundary is determined by imposing the first derivative continuity condition on the solution. The analytic form of the solution allows the price and the hedging parameters to be computed very efficiently. When compared against the benchmark finite-difference method, the computational time is significantly reduced without compromising the accuracy. The multi-stage scheme further allows the approximate results to systematically converge to the benchmark results as one recasts the moving boundary into a piecewise smooth continuous function. For the multi-dimensional problem, we generalize the Kirk (1995) approximate two-asset spread option formula to the case of multi-asset basket-spread option. Since the final formula is in closed form, all the hedging parameters can also be derived in

  2. The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Algieri, Bernardina

    2014-01-01

    Biofuels production has experienced rapid growth worldwide as one of the several strategies to promote green energy economies. Indeed, climate change mitigation and energy security have been frequent rationales behind biofuel policies, but biofuels production could generate negative impacts, such as additional demand for feedstocks, and therefore for land on which to grow them, with a consequent increase in food commodity prices. In this context, this paper examines the effect of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of a group of commodity futures prices using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models in univariate and multivariate settings. The results show that a complex of drivers are relevant in explaining commodity futures returns; more precisely, the Standard and Poor's (S and P) 500 positively affects commodity markets, while the US/Euro exchange rate brings about a decline in commodity returns. It turns out, in addition, that energy market returns are significant in explaining commodity returns on a daily basis, while monetary liquidity is not. This would imply that biofuel policy should be carefully monitored in order to avoid excessive first-generation subsidization, which would trigger a fuel vs. food conflict. - Highlights: • The effects of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices are examined. • A GARCH methodology in univariate and multivariate settings is adopted. • The results show that a complex of drivers is relevant in explaining commodity futures returns. • Energy market returns play a significant role in pushing commodity returns. • The increase in monetary liquidity does not contribute to changes in futures returns on a daily basis

  3. Calculating the Price for Derivative Financial Assets of Bessel Processes Using the Sturm-Liouville Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burtnyak Ivan V.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In the paper we apply the spectral theory to find the price for derivatives of financial assets assuming that the processes described are Markov processes and such that can be considered in the Hilbert space L^2 using the Sturm-Liouville theory. Bessel diffusion processes are used in studying Asian options. We consider the financial flows generated by the Bessel diffusions by expressing them in terms of the system of Bessel functions of the first kind, provided that they take into account the linear combination of the flow and its spatial derivative. Such expression enables calculating the size of the market portfolio and provides a measure of the amount of internal volatility in the market at any given moment, allows investigating the dynamics of the equity market. The expansion of the Green function in terms of the system of Bessel functions is expressed by an analytic formula that is convenient in calculating the volume of financial flows. All assumptions are natural, result in analytic formulas that are consistent with the empirical data and, when applied in practice, adequately reflect the processes in equity markets.

  4. The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country. The case of Trinidad and Tobago

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorde, Troy; Thomas, Chrystol; Jackman, Mahalia

    2009-01-01

    Using vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology, this paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, we find that the price of oil is a major determinant of economic activity of the country. Our impulse response functions suggest that following a positive oil price shock, output falls within the first two years followed by positive and growing response. We also investigate the macroeconomic impact of oil price volatility. Results suggest that an unanticipated shock to oil price volatility brings about random swings in the macroeconomy; however, only government revenue and the price level exhibit significant responses. With regard to the magnitude of the responses, shocks to oil price volatility tend to yield smaller macroeconomic impacts in comparison to shocks to oil prices. Variance decompositions suggest that the price of oil is a major component of forecast variation for most macroeconomic variables. Finally, Granger-causality tests indicate causality from oil prices to output and oil prices to government revenue. (author)

  5. Investigating banks’ financial structure on profitability and price volatility of banks’ shares: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Zeinab Mirzaei; Mohsen Hamidian; Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the relationship between financial structure on profitability and price volatility of banks’ shares, which are operating in Iran. The proposed study considers the information of 21 Iranian banks over the period 2006-2012. Using some regression techniques, the study has determined that there was a negative relationship between leverage and return on assets but there was not any meaningful relationship between leverage and price volatility...

  6. Association of Financial Integration Between Physicians and Hospitals With Commercial Health Care Prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neprash, Hannah T; Chernew, Michael E; Hicks, Andrew L; Gibson, Teresa; McWilliams, J Michael

    2015-12-01

    Financial integration between physicians and hospitals may help health care provider organizations meet the challenges of new payment models but also may enhance the bargaining power of provider organizations, leading to higher prices and spending in commercial health care markets. To assess the association between recent increases in physician-hospital integration and changes in spending and prices for outpatient and inpatient services. Using regression analysis, we estimated the relationship between changes in physician-hospital integration from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2012, in 240 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and concurrent changes in spending. Adjustments were made for patient, plan, and market characteristics, including physician, hospital, and insurer market concentration. The study population included a cohort of 7,391,335 nonelderly enrollees in preferred-provider organizations or point-of-service plans included in the Truven Health MarketScan Commercial Database during the study period. Data were analyzed from December 1, 2013, through July 13, 2015. Physician-hospital integration, measured using Medicare claims data as the share of physicians in an MSA who bill for outpatient services with a place-of-service code indicating employment or practice ownership by a hospital. Annual inpatient and outpatient spending per enrollee and associated use of health care services, with utilization measured by price-standardized spending (the sum of annual service counts multiplied by the national mean of allowed charges for the service). Among the 240 MSAs, physician-hospital integration increased from 2008 to 2012 by a mean of 3.3 percentage points, with considerable variation in increases across MSAs (interquartile range, 0.8-5.2 percentage points). For our study sample of 7,391,335 nonelderly enrollees, an increase in physician-hospital integration equivalent to the 75th percentile of changes experienced by MSAs was associated with a mean

  7. Techno-economic risk analysis of glycerol biorefinery concepts against market price fluctuation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gargalo, Carina L.; Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist

    . The high-value added bio-products boost profitability, the high-volume fuel helps meet national energy targets, and the power production cuts costs and dodges greenhouse-gas emissions [1] [2] [3]. The increasing amount of biodiesel production worldwide (e.g. from vegetable oils, palm oil, animal fats......) and the associated economic risks against historical market fluctuations when assessing the economics of competing glycerol biorefinery concepts. The aim is to compare the fitness/survival of the biorefinery concepts under extreme market disturbances. To perform this analysis, we used a superstructure based...

  8. Non Price Interaction and Business Fluctuations in an Agent Based Model of Firms’ Demography

    OpenAIRE

    Roberto Leombruni

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents some artificial stylised facts emerging in a simulated contestable market where firms interact with each other in taking their stay or go decision. I use nearly zero-intelligence firms: no optimisation is considered, and all the firms sell at a fixed price an equal quantity of the good. The entry of new firms is triggered by the overall profitability of the market, measured by the spread between the average rate of profit and the interest rate. The exit decision is modelle...

  9. Analysis of the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China's stock market in different periods-Based on time series network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Yang; Sun, Mei; Gao, Cuixia; Han, Dun; Li, Xiuming

    2018-02-01

    This paper studies the influence of Brent oil price fluctuations on the stock prices of China's two distinct blocks, namely, the petrochemical block and the electric equipment and new energy block, applying the Shannon entropy of information theory. The co-movement trend of crude oil price and stock prices is divided into different fluctuation patterns with the coarse-graining method. Then, the bivariate time series network model is established for the two blocks stock in five different periods. By joint analysis of the network-oriented metrics, the key modes and underlying evolutionary mechanisms were identified. The results show that the both networks have different fluctuation characteristics in different periods. Their co-movement patterns are clustered in some key modes and conversion intermediaries. The study not only reveals the lag effect of crude oil price fluctuations on the stock in Chinese industry blocks but also verifies the necessity of research on special periods, and suggests that the government should use different energy policies to stabilize market volatility in different periods. A new way is provided to study the unidirectional influence between multiple variables or complex time series.

  10. Financial Intermediation, House Prices and the Welfare Effects of the U.S. Great Recession

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Menno, Dominik Francesco; Oliviero, Tommaso

    2014-01-01

    drop in consumption than savers who relatively benefit from a redistribution of housing wealth during the recession. We show that the size of this redistribution mechanism would have been significantly lower if (i) mortgage spreads would have remained at the low pre-crisis levels during the recession......This paper quantifies how the welfare costs of the U.S. Great Recession are distributed across borrowing and saving U.S. households. For this purpose, we use a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model of housing and household debt with shocks to aggregate income and shocks to the financial...... intermediation sector. The model matches the boom-bust cycle in house prices, the dynamics of household mortgage debt, and the increase in wealth inequality observed in the U.S. between 2001-2013. We find larger welfare costs of the Great Recession for borrowers than for savers. Borrowers experience a larger...

  11. Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek; Chevallier, Julien; Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    As both speculative and hedging financial flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity price formation more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether these processes also create increased correlation amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas futures, using the large approximate factor models methodology we investigate whether common factors derived from a large international dataset of real and nominal macro variables are able to explain both returns and whether, beyond these fundamental common factors, the residuals remain correlated. We further investigate a possible explanation for this residual correlation by using some proxies for hedging and speculative activity, showing that speculation increases and hedging reduces the inter-commodity correlations. (authors)

  12. Financial protection against nuclear hazards: thirty years' experience under the Price-Anderson Act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1984-01-01

    Supplementing earlier reports on ways to provide financial protection against the potential hazards involved in the production of nuclear energy by analyzing the issues raised in the Silkwood v. Kerr-McGee Corporation decision, the author explores the impact of the case on the availability of funds to compensate the public and any increased exposure of the nuclear industry or the federal government to public liability. She concludes that the decision will have a significant impact on the day-to-day administration of claims, and could lead to higher premiums. The court would have to determine the priority given to claims in the event of a catastrophic accident, in which case the only significant impact would be under amendments to the Price-Anderson Act which resulted in elimination of its coverage or a substantial increase in or elimination of the limitation on liability

  13. Computational methods in the pricing and risk management of modern financial derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Hans-Peter

    1999-09-01

    In the last 20 years modern finance has developed into a complex mathematically challenging field. Very complicated risks exist in financial markets which need very advanced methods to measure and/or model them. The financial instruments invented by the market participants to trade these risk, the so called derivatives are usually even more complicated than the risks themselves and also sometimes generate new riks. Topics like random walks, stochastic differential equations, martingale measures, time series analysis, implied correlations, etc. are of common use in the field. This is why more and more people with a science background, such as physicists, mathematicians, or computer scientists, are entering the field of finance. The measurement and management of all theses risks is the key to the continuing success of banks. This talk gives insight into today's common methods of modern market risk management such as variance-covariance, historical simulation, Monte Carlo, “Greek” ratios, etc., including the statistical concepts on which they are based. Derivatives are at the same time the main reason for and the most effective means of conducting risk management. As such, they stand at the beginning and end of risk management. The valuation of derivatives and structured financial instruments is therefore the prerequisite, the condition sine qua non, for all risk management. This talk introduces some of the important valuation methods used in modern derivatives pricing such as present value, Black-Scholes, binomial trees, Monte Carlo, etc. In summary this talk highlights an area outside physics where there is a lot of interesting work to do, especially for physicists. Or as one of our consultants said: The fascinating thing about this job is that Arthur Andersen hired me not ALTHOUGH I am a physicist but BECAUSE I am a physicist.

  14. The Impact of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis on the Structure of the Transmission of Price Innovations Across Financial Markets: The Case of Southwest Asian Equity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liao Qunfeng

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the reaction of Southeast Asian equity markets to the transmission of price innovations from major equity markets during the pre and post periods of the 2008 global financial crisis. In particular, we examine the reaction of returns indices in Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand as endogenous variables, and compare them to the returns indices of the U.S., the Eurozone, Japan, and China as exogenous variables. The results of VAR models indicate the combined and individual impact of the price innovations from the major equity markets on the volatility of returns of selected countries is relatively trivial during either the pre- or post-financial crisis periods. However, the individual impact of the U.S. innovations is generally higher during the post-financial crisis. The ARCH and GARCH models indicate the stock markets of Southeast Asian countries are more responsive to their own price innovations during both the pre- and the post-crisis periods, although some response to U.S. and Eurozone shocks is also observed.

  15. The impact of a financial transaction tax on stylized facts of price returns—Evidence from the lab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Jürgen; Kleinlercher, Daniel; Kirchler, Michael

    2012-01-01

    As the introduction of financial transaction taxes is increasingly discussed by political leaders we explore possible consequences such taxes could have on markets. Here we examine how “stylized facts”, namely fat tails and volatility clustering, are affected by different tax regimes in laboratory experiments. We find that leptokurtosis of price returns is highest and clustered volatility is weakest in unilaterally taxed markets (where tax havens exist). Instead, tails are slimmest and volatility clustering is strongest in tax havens. When an encompassing financial transaction tax is levied, stylized facts hardly change compared to a scenario with no tax on all markets. PMID:23565012

  16. The impact of a financial transaction tax on stylized facts of price returns-Evidence from the lab.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Jürgen; Kleinlercher, Daniel; Kirchler, Michael

    2012-08-01

    As the introduction of financial transaction taxes is increasingly discussed by political leaders we explore possible consequences such taxes could have on markets. Here we examine how "stylized facts", namely fat tails and volatility clustering, are affected by different tax regimes in laboratory experiments. We find that leptokurtosis of price returns is highest and clustered volatility is weakest in unilaterally taxed markets (where tax havens exist). Instead, tails are slimmest and volatility clustering is strongest in tax havens. When an encompassing financial transaction tax is levied, stylized facts hardly change compared to a scenario with no tax on all markets.

  17. The impacts of oil price fluctuations on the economy of sub-Saharan African countries, importers of oil products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sacko, I.

    1997-01-01

    This work comprises three parts. The first part aims at presenting the energy situation of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries grouped in five regions. Because of the demographic pressure and of the petroleum shocks, the commercial energy consumption is growing up rapidly and the energy prices are high for the end-users (because the energy is imported and paid in dollars, and the fiscality share is increased by governments in the case of prices drop in the international market). The important problem of wood fuel is considered, together with the energy-economic growth relations and the determining factors of the energy demand in SSA. Some econometric relations are tested. The second part analyzes the mechanisms generated by petroleum shocks and counter-shocks, and stresses first on the transfers induced by these fluctuations. Then, it presents some macro-economical models which try to integrate the effects of a petroleum shock and makes some calculations based on a decomposition of imports and exports global and partial coefficients. Some important conclusions are inferred from this study: 1 - the second petroleum shock strikes more seriously the oil importing SSA countries because they do not benefit from a favorable international context, like during the first shock (also because the second shock is accompanied by a dollar shock); 2 - the absence of symmetry in oil shocks-counter-shocks; 3 - the crisis of SSA countries is not only of petroleum origin but is also linked with the drop of the export incomes (which itself is partially explained by the impact of petroleum shocks on the industrialized economies), with their bad insertion in the world economy, and with unsuitable domestic economies. The third part proposes some solutions to attenuate the energy and economical difficulties of these countries. It is necessary to implement an energy planning mainly based on the mastery of the demand and on a better management of local resources. The policies of

  18. Linkages among commodity futures prices in the recent financial crisis: An application of cointegration tests with a structural break

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoichi Tsuchiya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the existence of long-term co-movements among the prices of commodity futures contracts. We use a cointegration test, which accounts for the presence of a structural break. We show that while there is a long-term relationship among agricultural and among non-agricultural commodity futures prices when a structural break is taken into account, there is no such relationship without allowing for a structural break. We also show that these break points, in fact, occur a few months before the recent global financial crisis. Although the previous literature broadly casts doubt on such price co-movements, our results confirm that market performance improved during the sample period.

  19. Global financial crisis making a V-shaped fluctuation in NO2 pollution over the Yangtze River Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Yin; Xie, Zhiqing

    2017-04-01

    The Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China's main cultural and economic center, has become one of the most seriously polluted areas in the world with respect to nitrogen oxides (NOx), owing to its rapid industrialization and urbanization, as well as substantial coal consumption. On the basis of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) density data from ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) and ground-based observations, the effects of industrial fluctuations due to the financial crisis on local NO2 pollution were quantitatively assessed. The results were as follows. (1) A distinct V-shaped fluctuation of major industrial products, thermal generating capacity, electricity consumption, and tropospheric NO2 densities was associated with the global financial crisis from May 2007 to December 2009, with the largest anomalies 1.5 times more than standard deviations at the height of the crisis period from November 2008 to February 2009. (2) Among all industrial sectors, thermal power plants were mainly responsible for fluctuations in local NO2 pollution during the crisis period. Thermal generating capacity had its greatest decrease of 12.10% at the height of the crisis compared with that during November 2007-February 2008, leading to local tropospheric NO2 density decreasing by 16.97%. As the crisis appeased, thermal generating capacity increased by 29.63% from November 2009 to February 2010, and tropospheric NO2 densities correspondingly increased by 30.07%. (3) Among all industrial sectors in the YRD, the thermal power sector has the greatest coal consumption of about 65.96%. A decline in thermal power of about 10% can induce a decrease of about 30% in NOx emissions and NO2 densities, meaning that a relative small fluctuation in industrial production can lead to a large decrease in tropospheric NO2 densities over industrially developed areas like the YRD region. Since electricity is mainly obtained from local coal-burning thermal plants without NOx-processing equipment, installing NOx

  20. Financial and fiscal crises, prices and EUR/USD rate of exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slawomir I. Bukowski

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: How did the standard and non-standard ECB policy measures influence the price level and the EUR/USD rate of exchange in the period 2008 -2013? Design/methodology/approach: We formulated the following hypothesis: Depreciation of the Euro versus American dollar exchange rate occurred in the period of financial and fiscal crisis (2008-2014. The main reasons for that included: fiscal crisis in the euro area, implementation of standard and non–standard (quantitative easing ECB monetary policy measures and growth of money supply in the euro area. In that period, the economically and statistically significant impacts of money supply aggregate M2 and differences between interest rates and rates of inflation in the euro area and USA on changes in EUR/USD rate of exchange were noted. For verification of our hypothesis we used econometric modeling - model of regression estimated using the GARCH (0.1, using the monthly data for the period 1999:01-2013:12. Results of our research confirmed the hypothesis formulated by us. Findings: Our study confirmed the formulated hypothesis; the EBC monetary policy, both standard and non-standard, in the years 2008-2014 had a significant effect on the EUR/USD exchange rate, contributing largely to the depreciation of the euro in the same period. Research limitations/implications: The same method of research could be applied to other cases of currency area and central bank monetary policy. Originality/value: The results support the existence of statistically and economically significant impact of central bank policy on the rate of exchange, by the expansion of money supply, changes of differences between interest rates and rates of inflation inside and outside the currency rate area. Those results confirm conclusion formulated based on the theory of interest rate parity and assets theory of currency rates.

  1. Financial effects of pharmaceutical price regulation on R&D spending by EU versus US firms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golec, Joseph; Vernon, John A

    2010-01-01

    EU countries closely regulate pharmaceutical prices, whereas the US does not. This paper shows how price constraints affect the profitability, stock returns and R&D spending of EU and US firms. Compared with EU firms, US firms are more profitable, earn higher stock returns and spend more on R&D. We tested the relationship between price regulation and R&D spending, and estimated the costs of tight EU price regulation. Although results show that EU consumers enjoyed much lower pharmaceutical price inflation, we estimated that price controls cost EU firms 46 fewer new medicines and 1680 fewer research jobs during our 19-year sample period. Had the US used controls similar to those used in the EU, we estimate it would have led to 117 fewer new medicines and 4368 fewer research jobs in the US.

  2. Accelerated fluctuation analysis by graphic cards and complex pattern formation in financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preis, Tobias; Virnau, Peter; Paul, Wolfgang; Schneider, Johannes J

    2009-01-01

    The compute unified device architecture is an almost conventional programming approach for managing computations on a graphics processing unit (GPU) as a data-parallel computing device. With a maximum number of 240 cores in combination with a high memory bandwidth, a recent GPU offers resources for computational physics. We apply this technology to methods of fluctuation analysis, which includes determination of the scaling behavior of a stochastic process and the equilibrium autocorrelation function. Additionally, the recently introduced pattern formation conformity (Preis T et al 2008 Europhys. Lett. 82 68005), which quantifies pattern-based complex short-time correlations of a time series, is calculated on a GPU and analyzed in detail. Results are obtained up to 84 times faster than on a current central processing unit core. When we apply this method to high-frequency time series of the German BUND future, we find significant pattern-based correlations on short time scales. Furthermore, an anti-persistent behavior can be found on short time scales. Additionally, we compare the recent GPU generation, which provides a theoretical peak performance of up to roughly 10 12 floating point operations per second with the previous one.

  3. Price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    The price terms in wheeling contracts very substantially, reflecting the differing conditions affecting the parties contracting for the service. These terms differ in the manner in which rates are calculated, the formulas used, and the philosophy underlying the accord. For example, and EEI study found that firm wheeling rates ranged from 20 cents to $1.612 per kilowatt per month. Nonfirm rates ranged from .15 mills to 5.25 mills per kilowatt-hour. The focus in this chapter is on cost-based rates, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of existing contracts are based on rate designs reflecting embedded costs. This situation may change in the future, but, for now, this fact can't be ignored

  4. The Internet and the Future of Financial Services: Transparency, Differential Pricing and Disintermediation

    OpenAIRE

    Eric K. Clemons; Lorin M. Hitt

    2000-01-01

    The Internet has had a profound effect on the financial service sector, dramatically changing the cost and capabilities for marketing, distributing and servicing financial products and enabling new types of products and services to be developed. This is especially true for retail financial services where widespread adoption of the Internet, the standardization provided by the world-wide web, and the low cost of Internet communications and transactions have made it possible to reach customers ...

  5. Price Versus Financial Stability: A role for money in Taylor rules?

    OpenAIRE

    John Keating; Andrew Lee Smith

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes optimal monetary policy in a standard New-Keynesian model augmented with a financial sector. The banks in the model are subject to shocks which impede their ability and willingness to produce financial assets. We show these financial market supply shocks decrease both the natural rates of output and interest. The implication is that an optimizing central bank with real time data on only inflation, output, interest rate spreads and monetary aggregates will respond positivel...

  6. Effects of fuel price fluctuation on individual CO2 traffic emissions : empirical findings from pseudo panel data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, D.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Globalized concerns about greenhouse gasses and increased energy consumptions have stimulated research in transportation about the relationships between fuel prices and emissions. Many researchers have found that higher fuel price can reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions through a number of

  7. The economic and financial crisis: impacts on energy balances and prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyafil, Antoine

    2009-01-01

    The current economic crisis finds its origin in the existence of a global market for human capital, without unified prices: the development of a debt economy in Western countries can be regarded as an attempt to maintain economic growth in spite of the resulting pressure on labor wages. While the sub-prime crisis has shown the limits of such an attempt, the author believes that debt driven economic growth will continue to prevail in Western countries until price imbalances on the global market for human capital are resolved. This probably implies a substitution of public to private debt, and of private consumption to public investment with the resulting implications on public deficits, supply and demand, and relative prices. Energy prices will be sensitive to public spending's both mechanical impact on economic growth and qualitative impact on energy efficiency

  8. Time-clustering behavior of sharp fluctuation sequences in Chinese stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Ying; Zhuang Xintian; Liu Zhiying; Huang Weiqiang

    2012-01-01

    Sharp fluctuations (in particular, extreme fluctuations) of asset prices have a great impact on financial markets and risk management. Therefore, investigating the time dynamics of sharp fluctuation is a challenge in the financial fields. Using two different representations of the sharp fluctuations (inter-event times and series of counts), the time clustering behavior in the sharp fluctuation sequences of stock markets in China is studied with several statistical tools, including coefficient of variation, Allan Factor, Fano Factor as well as R/S (rescaled range) analysis. All of the empirical results indicate that the time dynamics of the sharp fluctuation sequences can be considered as a fractal process with a high degree of time-clusterization of the events. It can help us to get a better understanding of the nature and dynamics of sharp fluctuation of stock price in stock markets.

  9. Enhanced capital-asset pricing model for the reconstruction of bipartite financial networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Squartini, Tiziano; Almog, Assaf; Caldarelli, Guido; Van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego; Cimini, Giulio

    2017-01-01

    Reconstructing patterns of interconnections from partial information is one of the most important issues in the statistical physics of complex networks. A paramount example is provided by financial networks. In fact, the spreading and amplification of financial distress in capital markets are

  10. ANALYSIS OF GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT FLUCTUATIONS AND ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION IN 2005- 2014. RESERVES FOR DECREASING ELECTRIC POWER PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suslov N. I.

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this work we considered the trajectories of change in indicators characterizing the status of economics and power industry: gross regional product, electric power consumption, industrial production, energy prices and costs of delivering electric power to consumers in Russian regions for the last 10 years. Low global commodity prices and sanctions led to a sharp decrease of equipment import, which resulted in an acute problem of import substitution. The level of tariffs of natural monopolies is of great importance for industrial development. The goal of this work was to analyze possibilities for reducing electric power prices by changing the institutional and economic conditions of management. We analyzed not only the official information from Rosstat, but also government regulations, figures given in the official government publication «The Rossiyskaya Gazeta» as well as articles and interviews on economic problems of the electric power industry over the recent years published in «The Kommersant» newspaper. High tariffs of network marketing companies for electric energy transmission, state regulation of heating prices, financing the construction of new capacities by charging the payment in power provision contracts, high price of electric power of nuclear power plants lead to an annual increase in electric power prices for end users. In this work we considered possible solutions to limit the growth of electric power prices.

  11. The influence of the 2008 financial crisis on the predictiveness of risky asset pricing models in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This article examines three models for pricing risky assets, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM from Sharpe and Lintner, the three factor model from Fama and French, and the four factor model from Carhart, in the Brazilian mark et for the period from 2002 to 2013. The data is composed of shares traded on the São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA on a monthly basis, excluding financial sector shares, those with negative net equity, and those without consecutive monthly quotations. The proxy for market return is the Brazil Index (IBrX and for riskless assets savings accounts are used. The 2008 crisis, an event of immense proportions and market losses, may have caused alterations in the relationship structure of risky assets, causing changes in pricing model results. Division of the total period into pre-crisis and post-crisis sub-periods is the strategy used in order to achieve the main objective: to analyze the effects of the crisis on asset pricing model results and their predictive power. It is verified that the factors considered are relevant in the Brazilian market in both periods, but between the periods, changes occur in the statistical relevance of sensitivities to the market premium and to the value factor. Moreover, the predictive ability of the pricing models is greater in the post-crisis period, especially for the multifactor models, with the four factor model able to improve predictions of portfolio returns in this period by up to 80%, when compared to the CAPM.

  12. Monetary Policy under the Border between Price Stability and Financial Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina-Raluca BADEA

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The international financial crisis drew the line for the international and national authorities that conducted and implemented faulty monetary and financial policies, regardless the potential risks that might arise. It was only after the crisis burst when everyone realized the impact the systemic risk can have on the global financial system and, consequently, on every national economy. The conventional point of view is that inflation is the main source of financial instability, but recent evidence points out the fact that reaching the inflation target does not necessarily mean that the financial system is stable. What is the most important is that any source of financial instability should be diminished if not erased, hence preserving financial stability has become an important goal for the authorities, who dispute whether to include it on the objectives list of central banks or authorize another institution to achieve it. Therefore, the main goal of this paper is framing the present monetary policy framework with respect to its objectives and strategies and the necessity to reconsider it in a realistic manner in order to prevent another collapse in case of an economic downturn.

  13. Survey on how fluctuating petrol prices are affecting Malaysian large city dwellers in changing their trip patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohani, M. M.; Pahazri, N.

    2018-04-01

    Rising fuel prices shocks have a significant impact on the way of life of most Malaysians. Due to the rising of oil prices, the costs of travel for private vehicle users are therefore increasing. The study was conducted based on the objective of studying the impact of rising fuel prices on three types of trip patterns of Malaysians who are living in the city areas. The three types of trip patterns are, workplaces trip, leisure trip and personal purposes trip during the weekdays. This study was conducted by distributing questionnaires to respondents of private vehicle users in selected city such as Johor Bahru, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Melaka, Perak, Selangor and Kelantan. This study, found that the trip patterns of those who were using their own vehicles had changed after the rising of fuel prices. The changes showed that many private vehicle users were taking steps to save money on petrol by adjusting their trips.

  14. Sensitivities and Tipping Points of Power System Operations to Fluctuations Caused by Water Availability and Fuel Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, M.; Macknick, J.; Voisin, N.; Fu, T.

    2017-12-01

    The western US electric grid is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operation. Hydropower and water-cooled thermoelectric technologies represent 67% of generating capacity in the western region of the US. While water resources provide a significant amount of generation and reliability for the grid, these same resources can represent vulnerabilities during times of drought or low flow conditions. A lack of water affects water-dependent technologies and can result in more expensive generators needing to run in order to meet electric grid demand, resulting in higher electricity prices and a higher cost to operate the grid. A companion study assesses the impact of changes in water availability and air temperatures on power operations by directly derating hydro and thermo-electric generators. In this study we assess the sensitivities and tipping points of water availability compared with higher fuel prices in electricity sector operations. We evaluate the impacts of varying electricity prices by modifying fuel prices for coal and natural gas. We then analyze the difference in simulation results between changes in fuel prices in combination with water availability and air temperature variability. We simulate three fuel price scenarios for a 2010 baseline scenario along with 100 historical and future hydro-climate conditions. We use the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions under each combination of fuel price and water constraint. Some of the metrics evaluated are total production cost, generation type mix, emissions, transmission congestion, and reserve procurement. These metrics give insight to how strained the system is, how much flexibility it still has, and to what extent water resource availability or fuel prices drive changes in the electricity sector operations. This work will provide insights into current electricity operations as well as future cases of increased penetration of variable

  15. Economic assessment of solar and conventional biomass gasification technologies: Financial and policy implications under feedstock and product gas price uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nickerson, Thomas A.; Hathaway, Brandon J.; Smith, Timothy M.; Davidson, Jane H.

    2015-01-01

    Four configurations of a novel solar-heated biomass gasification facility and one configuration of conventional biomass gasification are analyzed through financial and policy scenarios. The purpose of this study is to determine the potential financial position for varying configurations of a novel technology, as compared to the current state-of-the-art gasification technology. Through the use of project finance and policy scenario development, we assess the baseline breakeven syngas price (normalized against natural gas prices and based upon annual feedstock consumption), the sensitivity of major cost components for the novel facilities, and the implications of policy levers on the economic feasibility of the solar facilities. Findings show that certain solar configurations may compete with conventional facilities on a straightforward economic basis. However, with renewable energy policy levers in place the solar technologies become increasingly attractive options. - Highlights: • We model four solar and one conventional biomass gasification systems. • We assess economic feasibility of these systems with and without policy incentives. • Solar facilities compete with the conventional system in certain scenarios. • Feedstock costs are the largest contributor to system cost sensitivity. • Policy incentives create an economically favorable scenario for solar facilities

  16. Carbon financial markets: A time-frequency analysis of CO2 prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Rita; Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Soares, Maria Joana

    2014-11-01

    We characterize the interrelation of CO2 prices with energy prices (electricity, gas and coal), and with economic activity. Previous studies have relied on time-domain techniques, such as Vector Auto-Regressions. In this study, we use multivariate wavelet analysis, which operates in the time-frequency domain. Wavelet analysis provides convenient tools to distinguish relations at particular frequencies and at particular time horizons. Our empirical approach has the potential to identify relations getting stronger and then disappearing over specific time intervals and frequencies. We are able to examine the coherency of these variables and lead-lag relations at different frequencies for the time periods in focus.

  17. Opening and Closing Price Efficiency: Do Financial Markets need the Call Auction?

    OpenAIRE

    Ibikunle, Gbenga

    2015-01-01

    We model 73.62 million London Stock Exchange (LSE) trades and show that the LSE’s high rate of failure to open at the opening auction only relates to low volume stocks. Low volume stock traders avoid trading until the open; this seems connected to their evading the informed trading-dominated opening auction. For the largest volume stocks, the opening auction provides highly efficient opening prices, while the lower volume stocks attain similar levels of price efficiency only after the start o...

  18. Neighbourhood exposure to point-of-sale price promotions for cigarettes is associated with financial stress among smokers: results from a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siahpush, Mohammad; Tibbits, Melissa; Soliman, Ghada A; Grimm, Brandon; Shaikh, Raees A; McCarthy, Molly; Wan, Neng; Ramos, Athena K; Correa, Antonia

    2017-11-01

    To examine the association between neighbourhood exposure to point-of-sale (POS) cigarette price promotions and financial stress among smokers in a Midwestern metropolitan area in the USA. Survey data from 888 smokers provided information on sociodemographic and smoking related variables. Financial stress was measured with the question: 'In the last six months, because of lack of money, was there a time when you were unable to buy food or pay any important bills on time, such as electricity, telephone, credit card, rent or your mortgage? (Yes/No).' Using audit data from 504 tobacco retailers, we estimated a score of POS price promotions for each respondent by summing the different types of promotion in each store in their neighbourhood, as defined by a 1-km roadway buffer. Adjusted results provided strong support for an association between higher scores of neighbourhood POS cigarette price promotions and a higher probability of financial stress (p=0.007). Exposure to POS cigarette price promotions is associated with financial stress. This finding, coupled with previous reports that smokers with financial stress are less likely to attempt to quit or succeed in quitting smoking, suggests that POS cigarette price promotions may act as an impediment to smoking cessation. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  19. Universal scaling and nonlinearity of aggregate price impact in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2018-01-01

    How and why stock prices move is a centuries-old question still not answered conclusively. More recently, attention shifted to higher frequencies, where trades are processed piecewise across different time scales. Here we reveal that price impact has a universal nonlinear shape for trades aggregated on any intraday scale. Its shape varies little across instruments, but drastically different master curves are obtained for order-volume and -sign impact. The scaling is largely determined by the relevant Hurst exponents. We further show that extreme order-flow imbalance is not associated with large returns. To the contrary, it is observed when the price is pinned to a particular level. Prices move only when there is sufficient balance in the local order flow. In fact, the probability that a trade changes the midprice falls to zero with increasing (absolute) order-sign bias along an arc-shaped curve for all intraday scales. Our findings challenge the widespread assumption of linear aggregate impact. They imply that market dynamics on all intraday time scales are shaped by correlations and bilateral adaptation in the flows of liquidity provision and taking.

  20. Two-Dimensional Fourier Cosine Series Expansion Method for Pricing Financial Options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijter, M.J.; Oosterlee, C.W.

    2012-01-01

    The COS method for pricing European and Bermudan options with one underlying asset was developed in [F. Fang and C. W. Oosterlee, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 31 (2008), pp. 826--848] and [F. Fang and C. W. Oosterlee, Numer. Math., 114 (2009), pp. 27--62]. In this paper, we extend the method to higher

  1. Initial mandate concerning the problem of fluctuating gasoline prices and their effect on the Quebec economy : Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guillot, R.; Ford, N. ed.

    2002-06-01

    Over a three-year period covering May 1998 to May 2001, the average price of gasoline in Quebec slowly increased from 57.1 cent per litre to 82.6 cent per litre. This 45 per cent increase in the price of gasoline worried consumers and had an effect on commercial and industrial operations throughout the province. This situation prompted the Commission de l'economie et du travail (Commission on Labour and the Economy) to initiate a mandate to examine the problem. In October 2001, experts representing energy and taxation sectors were consulted and presentations made by 17 people and organizations. The Ministre des Ressources Naturelles (Minister of Natural Resources) and the President de la Regie de l'Energie were heard in a public consultation forum. In the first part of the document, the authors explained the mechanism by which the price of gasoline and its various components are determined, identified the elements responsible for the increases in prices, and compare the prices in the different parts of the province. In part two, the responsibilities and powers of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Regie de l'Energie with regard to petroleum products were examined. Part three described the opinions expressed and proposed recommendations obtained during the public consultation process and they were grouped under four headings: taxation, competition, consumer information, and energy savings. The final part of the document presented the recommendations of the Commission on Labour and the Economy. 15 refs., 5 tabs

  2. The high price of debt: household financial debt and its impact on mental and physical health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, Elizabeth; Nandi, Arijit; Adam, Emma K; McDade, Thomas W

    2013-08-01

    Household financial debt in America has risen dramatically in recent years. While there is evidence that debt is associated with adverse psychological health, its relationship with other health outcomes is relatively unknown. We investigate the associations of multiple indices of financial debt with psychological and general health outcomes among 8400 young adult respondents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Our findings show that reporting high financial debt relative to available assets is associated with higher perceived stress and depression, worse self-reported general health, and higher diastolic blood pressure. These associations remain significant when controlling for prior socioeconomic status, psychological and physical health, and other demographic factors. The results suggest that debt is an important socioeconomic determinant of health that should be explored further in social epidemiology research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Renewable resource regulation and uncertain prices: The role of financial structure and bankruptcy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damania, Richard; Bulte, Erwin H.

    2006-01-01

    We analyze the interaction between regulatory policies and the financial structure of a fishery and show that firms with debts may respond differently to regulations than firms that have not accumulated debts. There are conditions where more stringent regulation is counterproductive, providing a perverse incentive to increase harvesting effort. We show that optimal regulation depends on the sector's financial structure, and demonstrate that there are cases when intervention is counterproductive, or too costly to implement. There are also cases where successful regulatory intervention can only be implemented when accompanied by a sufficiently large subsidy. (author)

  4. Anomalous Price Impact and the Critical Nature of Liquidity in Financial Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tóth, B.; Lempérière, Y.; Deremble, C.; de Lataillade, J.; Kockelkoren, J.; Bouchaud, J.-P.

    2011-10-01

    We propose a dynamical theory of market liquidity that predicts that the average supply/demand profile is V shaped and vanishes around the current price. This result is generic, and only relies on mild assumptions about the order flow and on the fact that prices are, to a first approximation, diffusive. This naturally accounts for two striking stylized facts: First, large metaorders have to be fragmented in order to be digested by the liquidity funnel, which leads to a long memory in the sign of the order flow. Second, the anomalously small local liquidity induces a breakdown of the linear response and a diverging impact of small orders, explaining the “square-root” impact law, for which we provide additional empirical support. Finally, we test our arguments quantitatively using a numerical model of order flow based on the same minimal ingredients.

  5. Anomalous Price Impact and the Critical Nature of Liquidity in Financial Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Tóth

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available We propose a dynamical theory of market liquidity that predicts that the average supply/demand profile is V shaped and vanishes around the current price. This result is generic, and only relies on mild assumptions about the order flow and on the fact that prices are, to a first approximation, diffusive. This naturally accounts for two striking stylized facts: First, large metaorders have to be fragmented in order to be digested by the liquidity funnel, which leads to a long memory in the sign of the order flow. Second, the anomalously small local liquidity induces a breakdown of the linear response and a diverging impact of small orders, explaining the “square-root” impact law, for which we provide additional empirical support. Finally, we test our arguments quantitatively using a numerical model of order flow based on the same minimal ingredients.

  6. Bulk Fuel Pricing: DOD Needs to Reevaluate Its Approach to Better Manage the Effect of Market Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    depression in the price of WTI was a result of rapid growth in U.S. and Canadian oil production, which overwhelmed the transportation infrastructure...additional information. Connect with GAO on Facebook, Flickr, Twitter, and YouTube . Subscribe to our RSS Feeds or E-mail Updates. Listen to our

  7. Cigarette tax and public health: what are the implications of financially stressed smokers for the effects of price increases on smoking prevalence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martire, Kristy A; Mattick, Richard P; Doran, Christopher M; Hall, Wayne D

    2011-03-01

    This paper models the predicted impact of tobacco price increases proposed in the United States and Australia during 2009 on smoking prevalence in 2010 while taking account of the effects of financial stress among smokers on cessation rates. Two models of smoking prevalence were developed for each country. In model 1, prevalence rates were determined by price elasticity estimates. In model 2 price elasticity was moderated by financial stress. Each model was used to estimate smoking prevalence in 2010 in Australia and the United States. Proposed price increases resulted in a 1.89% and 7.84% decrease in smoking participation among low socio-economic status (SES) groups in the United States and Australia, respectively. Model 1 overestimated the number of individuals expected to quit in both the United States (0.13% of smokers) and Australia (0.36% of smokers) by failing to take account of the differential effects of the tax on financially stressed smokers. The proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress increased in both countries in 2010 (by 1.06% in the United States and 3.75% in Australia). The inclusion of financial stress when modelling the impact of price on smoking prevalence suggests that the population health returns of increased cigarette price will diminish over time. As it is likely that the proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress will also increase in 2010, future population-based approaches to reducing smoking will need to address this factor. © 2010 The Authors, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. Bank disclosure and market assessment of financial fragility: Evidence from Turkish banks' equity prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tumer Alkan, G.; Penas, M.F.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we explore whether Turkish banks with worsening indicators of financial fragility were subject to market monitoring during the years leading to the 2000/2001 crisis, and how the quality and timeliness of the disclosure affect market reaction. We find that shareholders reacted

  9. Effects of time delay on stochastic resonance of the stock prices in financial system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Li, Chun; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2014-01-01

    The effect of time delay on stochastic resonance of the stock prices in finance system was investigated. The time delay is introduced into the Heston model driven by the extrinsic and intrinsic periodic information for stock price. The signal power amplification (SPA) was calculated by numerical simulation. The results indicate that an optimal critical value of delay time maximally enhances the reverse-resonance in the behaviors of SPA as a function of long-run variance of volatility or cross correlation coefficient between noises for both cases of intrinsic and extrinsic periodic information. Moreover, in both cases, being a critical value in the delay time, when the delay time takes value below the critical value, reverse-resonance increases with the delay time increasing, however, when the delay time takes value above the critical value, the reverse-resonance decrease with the delay time increasing. - Highlights: • The effects of delay time on stochastic resonance of the stock prices was investigated. • There is an optimal critical value of delay time maximally enhances the reverse-resonance • The reverse-resonance increases with the delay time increasing as the delay time takes value below the critical value • The reverse-resonance decrease with the delay time increasing as the delay time takes value above the critical value

  10. Effects of time delay on stochastic resonance of the stock prices in financial system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng [Department of Physics, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650091 (China); Li, Chun [Department of Computer Science, Puer Teachers' College, Puer 665000 (China); Mei, Dong-Cheng, E-mail: meidch@ynu.edu.cn [Department of Physics, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650091 (China)

    2014-06-13

    The effect of time delay on stochastic resonance of the stock prices in finance system was investigated. The time delay is introduced into the Heston model driven by the extrinsic and intrinsic periodic information for stock price. The signal power amplification (SPA) was calculated by numerical simulation. The results indicate that an optimal critical value of delay time maximally enhances the reverse-resonance in the behaviors of SPA as a function of long-run variance of volatility or cross correlation coefficient between noises for both cases of intrinsic and extrinsic periodic information. Moreover, in both cases, being a critical value in the delay time, when the delay time takes value below the critical value, reverse-resonance increases with the delay time increasing, however, when the delay time takes value above the critical value, the reverse-resonance decrease with the delay time increasing. - Highlights: • The effects of delay time on stochastic resonance of the stock prices was investigated. • There is an optimal critical value of delay time maximally enhances the reverse-resonance • The reverse-resonance increases with the delay time increasing as the delay time takes value below the critical value • The reverse-resonance decrease with the delay time increasing as the delay time takes value above the critical value.

  11. Juxtaposition of micro and macro dynamics of dividend policy on stock price volatility in financial sector of Pakistan : (comparative analysis through common, fixed, random and GMM effect)

    OpenAIRE

    Hamid, Kashif; Khurram, Muhammad Usman; Ghaffar, Wasim

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the dividend policy dynamics in context to firm specific and macroeconomic variables with stock price volatility in the financial sector of Pakistan. Panel data is used for the period 2006-2014 to identify the common, fixed, random and GMM effect. It is concluded that dividend payout ratio, market value, interest volatility and inflation volatility have positive significant correlation with price volatility. Common effect model shows that dividend payou...

  12. Assessing the Predictive Power of Customer Satisfaction for Financial and Market Performances: Price-to-Earnings Ratio is a Better Predictor Overall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Rostan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Our paper shows that based on the RMSE criteria, Price-to-Earnings ratio is a better predictor of financial and market performances of the firm than the Customer Satisfaction index (CS. This conclusion is based on the choice of five financial and seven market indicators that we consider as proxies for financial and market performances with a sample comprising eighty-six companies: Book value, dividend yield, Gross Profit Margin, Price to Cash-Flows, Price-to-Earnings, Price to Sales, Annual return, ROA, ROE, ROI, Volatility and Tobin’s Q. However, CS clearly outperforms our five benchmarks (Tobin’s Q, Price-to-Cash Flows, Price-to-Earnings, Volatility or the indicator itself when forecasting Tobin’s Q, Volatility, ROE and ROI. In periods of volatile market such as year 2008, CS is a more stable predictor of Volatility or ROE than the indicators themselves (i.e. Volatility for Volatility, ROE for ROE.

  13. THE ROLE OF DERIVATIVES IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON SECURITY PRICES

    OpenAIRE

    Ronald A. Stunda

    2014-01-01

    This study takes on two divergent notions concerning derivatives; that they are dangerous instruments (Warren Buffet) versus the concept that they help to reduce risk (Allen Greenspan). These notions are assessed from the perspective of the recent Financial Crisis in which derivatives were assigned a good deal of the blame for the meltdown. This study analyzes three different study periods; Pre-Crisis (2003, 2004, 2005), Crisis (2008, 2009, 2010), and Post-Crisis (2011, 2012, 2013-1st quarter...

  14. High food prices and the global financial crisis have reduced access to nutritious food and worsened nutritional status and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkman, Henk-Jan; de Pee, Saskia; Sanogo, Issa; Subran, Ludovic; Bloem, Martin W

    2010-01-01

    A global economic and financial crisis is engulfing the developing world, coming on top of high food and fuel prices. This paper assesses the impact of the crises on food consumption, nutrition, and health. Several methods were applied, including risk analysis using the cost of the food basket, assessment surveys, simulations, regression analysis using a food consumption score (FCS), reflecting diet frequency and diversity, and a review of the impact of such dietary changes on nutritional status and health. The cost of the food basket increased in several countries, forcing households to reduce quality and quantity of food consumed. The FCS, which is a measure of diet diversity, is negatively correlated with food prices. Simulations show that energy consumption declined during 2006-2010 in nearly all developing regions, resulting potentially in an additional 457 million people (of 4.5 billion) at risk of being hungry and many more unable to afford the dietary quality required to perform, develop, and grow well. As a result of the crises, large numbers of vulnerable households have reduced the quality and quantity of foods they consume and are at risk of increased malnutrition. Population groups most affected are those with the highest requirements, including young children, pregnant and lactating women, and the chronically ill (particularly people with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis). Because undernutrition during the first 2 y of life has life-long consequences, even short-term price rises will have long-term effects. Thus, measures to mitigate the impact of the crises are urgently required.

  15. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (1/3)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva; Coffey, Brian

    2009-01-01

    Abstract: An introduction to the mathematics and practicalities of market trading and risk management for financial derivatives, the course will focus on examples from the short-term and long term Foreign Exchange (FX) and Interest Rate (IR) derivatives markets. Topics: - Government Bonds and IR Curves - Stochastic FX, Black-Scholes Vanilla FX Options and Martingales - Risk Management and Market Trading for Vanilla FX Options, Market Implied Volatility, Valuation and Risk Management, Market Trading Strategies - Stochastic IR Curves and Implied Volatility, IR Derivatives - Long Term FX Options: Interaction of Stochastic FX and Stochastic IR Vanilla Foreign Exchange (FX) Options - $ Government Bonds, Interest Rate (IR) Curves, Continuous IR - Domestic ($) and Foreign (Yen) Government Bonds, IR curves - Stochastic Spot FX, Forward FX: Ito processes for $ and Yen Investors - Black-Scholes Vanilla FX Options, Connection to Heat/Diffusion Equation - Stochastic Differential Equations with Mart...

  16. Trading volume in financial markets: An introductory review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duarte Queirós, Sílvio M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, I introduce a short review on the statistical and dynamical properties of the high-frequency trading volume and its relation to other financial quantities such as the price fluctuations and trading value. In addition, I compare these results — which were obtained within the framework of applications of Physics to quantitative financial analysis —with the mainstream financial hypotheses of mixture of distributions (MDH) and sequential arrival of information (SIAH).

  17. Dynamic Evolution of Financial Network and its Relation to Economic Crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Ya-Chun; Wei, Zong-Wen; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2013-02-01

    The static topology properties of financial networks have been widely investigated since the work done by Mantegna, yet their dynamic evolution with time is little considered. In this paper, we comprehensively study the dynamic evolution of financial network by a sliding window technique. The vertices and edges of financial network are represented by the stocks from S&P500 components and correlations between pairs of daily returns of price fluctuation, respectively. Furthermore, the duration of stock price fluctuation, spanning from January 4, 1985 to September 14, 2009, makes us to carefully observe the relation between the dynamic topological properties and big financial crashes. The empirical results suggest that the financial network has the robust small-world property when the time evolves, and the topological structure drastically changes when the big financial crashes occur. This correspondence between the dynamic evolution of financial network and big financial crashes may provide a novel view to understand the origin of economic crisis.

  18. Financial Knudsen number: Breakdown of continuous price dynamics and asymmetric buy-and-sell structures confirmed by high-precision order-book information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yura, Yoshihiro; Takayasu, Hideki; Sornette, Didier; Takayasu, Misako

    2015-10-01

    We generalize the description of the dynamics of the order book of financial markets in terms of a Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of incoming, exiting, and annihilating particles by presenting a model of the velocity on each side (buy and sell) independently. The improved model builds on the time-averaged number of particles in the inner layer and its change per unit time, where the inner layer is revealed by the correlations between price velocity and change in the number of particles (limit orders). This allows us to introduce the Knudsen number of the financial Brownian particle motion and its asymmetric version (on the buy and sell sides). Not being considered previously, the asymmetric Knudsen numbers are crucial in finance in order to detect asymmetric price changes. The Knudsen numbers allows us to characterize the conditions for the market dynamics to be correctly described by a continuous stochastic process. Not questioned until now for large liquid markets such as the USD-JPY and EUR-USD exchange rates, we show that there are regimes when the Knudsen numbers are so high that discrete particle effects dominate, such as during market stresses and crashes. We document the presence of imbalances of particles depletion rates on the buy and sell sides that are associated with high Knudsen numbers and violent directional price changes. This indicator can detect the direction of the price motion at the early stage while the usual volatility risk measure is blind to the price direction.

  19. Financial Knudsen number: Breakdown of continuous price dynamics and asymmetric buy-and-sell structures confirmed by high-precision order-book information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yura, Yoshihiro; Takayasu, Hideki; Sornette, Didier; Takayasu, Misako

    2015-10-01

    We generalize the description of the dynamics of the order book of financial markets in terms of a Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of incoming, exiting, and annihilating particles by presenting a model of the velocity on each side (buy and sell) independently. The improved model builds on the time-averaged number of particles in the inner layer and its change per unit time, where the inner layer is revealed by the correlations between price velocity and change in the number of particles (limit orders). This allows us to introduce the Knudsen number of the financial Brownian particle motion and its asymmetric version (on the buy and sell sides). Not being considered previously, the asymmetric Knudsen numbers are crucial in finance in order to detect asymmetric price changes. The Knudsen numbers allows us to characterize the conditions for the market dynamics to be correctly described by a continuous stochastic process. Not questioned until now for large liquid markets such as the USD-JPY and EUR-USD exchange rates, we show that there are regimes when the Knudsen numbers are so high that discrete particle effects dominate, such as during market stresses and crashes. We document the presence of imbalances of particles depletion rates on the buy and sell sides that are associated with high Knudsen numbers and violent directional price changes. This indicator can detect the direction of the price motion at the early stage while the usual volatility risk measure is blind to the price direction.

  20. Hisse Senetleri Fiyatlarının Belirlenmesinde Finansal Oranların Rolü(The Role of Financial Ratios in Determining the Stock Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oğuzhan AYDEMİR

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, financial ratios being effective in determining stock prices are investigated by panel data analysis. In this aim, data set belonging to 73 companies indexed in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE and operating in manufacturing sector over the period of 1990-2000 is used. Empirical results suggest that profitability and liquidity ratios have a positive effect on stock returns. Moreover, leverage ratio taken as an indicator of indebtedness has the same effect. However, it is seen that operating ratios have no impact on stock returns. Consequently, it may be said that the role of financial ratios in determining the stock returns is low.

  1. Financial and technical feasibility of dynamic congestion pricing as a revenue generation source in Indiana : exploiting the availability of real-time information and dynamic pricing technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-19

    "Highway stakeholders continue to support research studies that address critical issues of the current era, including congestion mitigation and revenue generation. A mechanism that addresses both concerns is congestion pricing which establishes a dir...

  2. Price expectations and petroleum development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollio, G.; Marian, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    In the first section of this paper, the authors present a highly stylized model of the world oil market that explicitly incorporates both expectative and financial effects. The model generates the extremely interesting result that actual future price outcomes are inversely related to prevailing price expectations, owing to fluctuation in the level and timing of industry investment expenditure. Given the importance of price expectations, it is surprising that the topic has received such scant attention. The authors therefore present in the second section of selective survey of the various measures that have been proposed and used in the literature, as well as an assessment of the value of potentially new indices and market prices for existing hydrocarbon reserves, for example. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the extent to which financial innovation, in the form of commodity-linked products-such as swaps, caps, collars, and so forth-are transforming the oil market, enabling all market segments to manage price uncertainty far more effectively than was ever possible in the past

  3. The Financial Crisis and Diverging House Prices: Evidence from the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area: 2017-084/VIII

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mulalic, Ismir; Rasmussen, Holger; Rouwendal, Jan

    This paper investigates the development of house prices in Copenhagen in the period 1994-2013, while paying special attention to the heterogeneous impact of the boom and bust periods along the dimensions of housing type (single vs multifamily housing), geography and quality. To allow for price de...... the high quality segments of the housing market....

  4. Report on the inquiry into sale price fluctuations of gasoline and diesel fuel in the regions of Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Saguenay-Lac Saint Jean and the Upper Mauricie, October 1998 to 31 December 1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, L.; Dumais, M. A.

    2000-01-01

    An inquiry was initiated by the President of the Quebec Energy Board (Regie de l'energie) on October 7, 1999 to review the reasons for the wide fluctuations in the retail sale prices of gasoline and diesel fuel in the regions of Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Saguenay/Lac-Saint-Jean and the Upper Mauricie, although the Board has no jurisdiction over the prices charged for petroleum products or anti-competitive practices. Consequently, the inquiry confined itself to an analysis of the information pertaining to the structure and forces driving the petroleum products market, and an examination of price mechanisms and consumer reactions in these regions. The inquiry reviewed the relevant legislation and regulation, the social, economic and energy situations in the affected regions, and the structure and functioning of the market for gasoline and diesel fuel. The inquiry came to the conclusion that the price fluctuations during the period under review reflected the wholesale prices recorded at Montreal and Quebec, which are determined by national and international market forces over which Quebec has no significant control. Furthermore, the inquiry concluded that although market forces are present and functioning in the regions, there are relatively few outlets affiliated with major oil companies, and a large number of independent retail outlets with relatively small volumes of annual sales. They essentially set their own prices at a level that reflect their cost of operation. Appendices contain the Inquiry's mandate, a list of those who testified before the Inquiry, a map showing the geographic profile of the regions surveyed and a list of figures and tables. 18 tabs., 31 figs

  5. Examining the Impact of Corporate Dividend Policy On Stock Price Volatility In Singapore : Does Financial Crisis Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Hussain, Muhammad Asjad

    2016-01-01

    One of the most puzzling and widely researched topics in the field of corporate finance is corporate dividend policy and the probable impact it has on firms’ stock price volatility. Despite years of research and extensive empirical examination of the dividend policy-stock price volatility linkage, conflicting evidence across a multitude of studies implies that no solid conclusion regarding the veracity and validity of this relationship has yet been reached. Furthermore, there is a dearth of s...

  6. Financial barriers and pricing strategies related to participation in sports activities: the perceptions of people of low income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhuis, Ingrid H M; Nooy, Steffie B C; Moes, Machiel J G; Schuit, Albertine J

    2009-11-01

    Physical activity levels in most affluent countries are low and many people do not meet the current recommendations. Particularly for people with a low income, economic strategies seem promising to stimulate taking part in sports activities. This study investigated the importance of economic restraints for taking part in sports activities as well as perceptions of low-income people toward different pricing interventions. A qualitative study was conducted, using semistructured, individual interviews with 27 low-income men and women. The framework approach was used to analyze the transcripts of the interviews. The respondents considered finances to be an important barrier for participating in sports activities, together with some individual barriers. Promising pricing strategies are a discount on the subscription to the fitness or sports club, a 1 month free trial, and free entrance to the swimming pool once a week. Pricing strategies may be a promising intervention to increase physical activity levels of low-income people. However, this study indicates that this should be coupled with an intervention directed at individual barriers. Some pricing strategies will be used and appreciated more by low-income people than other pricing strategies. In addition, pricing strategies should be tailored to individual needs and preferences.

  7. Analysis on 'new fundamentals' and range of oil price trend in the long run

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rui, Chen

    2010-09-15

    The range of trend of oil price will be decided by marginal production cost of crude oil and production cost of alternative energy consumed as transportation fuel on a large scale. The former factor determines the lower limit and the latter determines the upper limit of oil price. financial factors and the value of USD will not only affect the short-term change of oil price, they may become fundamentals factors that exert influence on the mid-long term change of oil price, namely, New Fundamentals, which will determine the fluctuation degree of oil price in the long run.

  8. AR(p) -based detrended fluctuation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Rodriguez, E.

    2018-07-01

    Autoregressive models are commonly used for modeling time-series from nature, economics and finance. This work explored simple autoregressive AR(p) models to remove long-term trends in detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Crude oil prices and bitcoin exchange rate were considered, with the former corresponding to a mature market and the latter to an emergent market. Results showed that AR(p) -based DFA performs similar to traditional DFA. However, the former DFA provides information on stability of long-term trends, which is valuable for understanding and quantifying the dynamics of complex time series from financial systems.

  9. OUTPUT-PRICE DYNAMICS IN THE ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES: Evidence from The Pre- and Post-1997 Financial Turmoil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salina Hj. Kassim

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the cyclical behavior between outputs and prices in major ASEAN economies, namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines over two sample periods: the pre-crisis period (1990 to 1996 and the post-crisis period (2000 to 2006. Specifically, the study aims to shed the light on two issues: (i the possibility that there is a change in the patterns of the correlations between real activities and prices in a particular country in the pre-crisis period compared to the post-crisis period; and (ii the synchronization of real activity and price relationships or the business cycles across the major ASEAN countries. In order to analyze the output-price relationship across the countries and time periods, we adopt several tests including the Pearson correlation analysis, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL model and Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM. The study documents that the output-price relationship has changed in several countries following the crisis in 1997/1998. While there is a clear business cycles synchronization between the ASEAN-5 countries in the short-run, results have been mixed in the long run. Results of this study contribute towards further enriching the policy recommendations to help ensuring the viability and effectiveness of the economic cooperation between the ASEAN nations.

  10. Price stabilization for raw jute in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Takamasa Akiyama; Varangis, Panos

    1991-01-01

    Fluctuating prices for raw jute have been viewed as contributing to economic problems in the jute subsector. Price fluctuations were thought to reduce the jute farmers'welfare and there has been concern about the costs of parastatals'stocking operations in attempts to stabilize jute prices and incomes. The authors examine these fluctuations and analyze policies that might reduce them. They find that price fluctuations for raw jute reduce farmers'welfare only slightly because farmers'activitie...

  11. Analysis of consumer response to fuel price fluctuations applying sample selection model to GPS panel data : Dynamics in individuals' car use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Dujuan; Timmermans, Harry

    2015-01-01

    The effects of fuel price increases on people's car use have been widely discussed during the last few decades in travel behavior research. It is well recognized that fuel price has significant effects on driving distance and driving efficiency. However, most of this research assumed that these

  12. STOCK PRICES OF DOMESTIC BANKING SECTOR AND EXTERNAL SHOCKS IN EAST ASIA

    OpenAIRE

    Masahiro Inoguchi

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of price fluctuations in foreign stock markets on the stock prices of domestic banks’ stocks to explore if and how external shocks have affected the banking system in Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand during the 2000s. Some researchers insist that domestic banks in East Asia were less affected by the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. However, few previous articles have investigated how the banking sector in East Asia has been affected by external shocks....

  13. Price-volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying

    2012-06-01

    An empirical research on Chinese stock markets is conducted using statistical tools. First, the multifractality of stock price return series, ri(ri=ln(Pt+1)-ln(Pt)) and trading volume variation series, vi(vi=ln(Vt+1)-ln(Vt)) is confirmed using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Furthermore, a multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between stock price return and trading volume variation in Chinese stock markets is also conducted. It is shown that the cross relationship between them is also found to be multifractal. Second, the cross-correlation between stock price Pi and trading volume Vi is empirically studied using cross-correlation function and detrended cross-correlation analysis. It is found that both Shanghai stock market and Shenzhen stock market show pronounced long-range cross-correlations between stock price and trading volume. Third, a composite index R based on price and trading volume is introduced. Compared with stock price return series ri and trading volume variation series vi, R variation series not only remain the characteristics of original series but also demonstrate the relative correlation between stock price and trading volume. Finally, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of R variation series before and after three financial events in China (namely, Price Limits, Reform of Non-tradable Shares and financial crisis in 2008) in the whole period of sample to study the changes of stock market fluctuation and financial risk. It is found that the empirical results verified the validity of R.

  14. Evidence of Large Fluctuations of Stock Return and Financial Crises from Turkey: Using Wavelet Coherency and Varma Modeling to Forecast Stock Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oygur, Tunc; Unal, Gazanfer

    Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.

  15. Asymmetric and symmetric meta-correlations in financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xiaohui; Shen Xiangying; Huang Jiping

    2016-01-01

    In financial markets, the relation between fluctuations of stock prices and trading behaviors is complex. It is intriguing to quantify this kind of meta-correlation between market fluctuations and the synchronous behaviors. We refine the theoretical index leverage model proposed by Reigneron et al. , to exactly quantify the meta-correlation under various levels of price fluctuations [Reigneron P A, Allez R and Bouchaud J P 2011 Physica A 390 3026]. The characteristics of meta-correlations in times of market losses, are found to be significantly different in Chinese and American financial markets. In addition, unlike the asymmetric results at the daily scale, the correlation behaviors are found to be symmetric at the high-frequency scale. (paper)

  16. Petroleum: Price trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, Denis; Pierru, Axel

    2010-01-01

    The Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC), some political leaders and financiers have mainly attributed the price spike of oil in 2008 - followed by a just as spectacular drop in prices - to the speculative moves made by financial investors on the futures market instead of to market fundamentals

  17. Relationship between Gold and Oil Prices and Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Mansoor Baig

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study objective to examine the relationship between gold prices, oil prices and KSE100 return. This study important for the investor whose want to invest in real assets and financial assets. This study helps investor to achieve the portfolio diversification. This study uses the monthly data of gold prices, KSE100, and oil prices for the period of 2000 to 2010 (monthly. This study applied Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller test Phillip Perron test, Johansen and Jelseluis Co-integration test, Variance Decomposition test to find relationship. This study concludes that Gold prices growth, Oil prices growth and KSE100 return have no significant relationship in the long run. This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in Gold, Oil and stock market. In the current era Gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day and investors think that stock returns may or may not affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focuses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help the investment institutions or portfolio managers.

  18. Study on the Shock-transmission Mechanism of Stock Price among China, Russia and India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menggen Chen

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Researchers pay more and more attention on the price comovement-effect among international stock markets. This paper deals with the transmission mechanism of price shocks among three stock markets of China, Russia and India, with a sample of weekly returns. The results showed that the price fluctuation of each market has an influence on other markets, although the price behavior is significantly independent. The impact of external price innovations will last 5 or 6 weeks usually and disappear after about 8 weeks. The pattern of transmission-mechanism for the price shocks is very different from each other. Besides, a further study revealed that the influence of external shocks on the domestic stock price increased significantly among the three markets after the 2008 international financial crisis.

  19. Strategic wholesale pricing for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jianwu

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier's wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting.

  20. Strategic Wholesale Pricing for an Incumbent Supplier Facing with a Competitive Counterpart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwu Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier’s wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting.

  1. Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriques, Irene; Sadorsky, Perry

    2008-01-01

    Energy security issues coupled with increased concern over the natural environment are driving factors behind oil price movements. While it is widely accepted that rising oil prices are good for the financial performance of alternative energy companies, there has been relatively little statistical work done to measure just how sensitive the financial performance of alternative energy companies are to changes in oil prices. In this paper, a four variable vector autoregression model is developed and estimated in order to investigate the empirical relationship between alternative energy stock prices, technology stock prices, oil prices, and interest rates. Our results show technology stock prices and oil prices each individually Granger cause the stock prices of alternative energy companies. Simulation results show that a shock to technology stock prices has a larger impact on alternative energy stock prices than does a shock to oil prices. These results should be of use to investors, managers and policy makers. (author)

  2. World corporate loan markets for raising new capital - does distance still matter: Are financial assets priced locally or globally?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojinovič Borut

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Though the paper focuses on pricing, as the background I provide some evidence about loan flows across markets in the form of borrowers’ and lenders’ propensity to issue outside their natural home market. The data show that borrowers stay home when they can and that they tend to issue in Europe when they must issue abroad. That is, borrowers domiciled in one of the major markets (Europe, U.S., and Asia almost always issue in that market, whereas borrowers in more remote locations usually issue in the European market. For example, borrowers from Latin America are overwhelmingly issuing in Europe rather than in the U.S. market.

  3. Financial risks for green electricity investors and producers in a tradable green certificate market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemming, Jacob

    2003-01-01

    This paper analyzes financial risks in a market for tradable green certificates (TGC) from two perspectives; existing renewable producers and potential investors in new renewable electricity generation capacity. The equilibrium pricing mechanism for a consumer-based TGC market is described and a market with wind turbines as the sole renewable technology is analyzed. In this framework, TGC prices and fluctuations in production from wind turbines will be negatively correlated and, as a result, TGC price fluctuations can actually help decrease the total financial risk. Based on this recognition, analytical expressions for revenue-variance-minimizing trading strategies are derived and an analysis of the demand and supply for financial hedging is used to show that forward contracts will be traded at a risk premium

  4. PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    SUCIU Titus

    2013-01-01

    In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

  5. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  6. The Price and Progress of Compliance with Federal Financial Management Reporting Requirements in Department of the Navy Property, Plant, and Equipment Nonfinancial Feeder Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Burks, Michael

    2000-01-01

    .... The passage of the Chief Financial Officers Act of 1990 and subsequent fiscal reform legislation set forth a mandate for financial accountability through implementation of an integrated financial...

  7. Prices and Price Setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.P. Faber (Riemer)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.

  8. Loss Aversion, Adaptive Beliefs, and Asset Pricing Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamal Samy Selim

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We study asset pricing dynamics in artificial financial markets model. The financial market is populated with agents following two heterogeneous trading beliefs, the technical and the fundamental prediction rules. Agents switch between trading rules with respect to their past performance. The agents are loss averse over asset price fluctuations. Loss aversion behaviour depends on the past performance of the trading strategies in terms of an evolutionary fitness measure. We propose a novel application of the prospect theory to agent-based modelling, and by simulation, the effect of evolutionary fitness measure on adaptive belief system is investigated. For comparison, we study pricing dynamics of a financial market populated with chartists perceive losses and gains symmetrically. One of our contributions is validating the agent-based models using real financial data of the Egyptian Stock Exchange. We find that our framework can explain important stylized facts in financial time series, such as random walk price behaviour, bubbles and crashes, fat-tailed return distributions, power-law tails in the distribution of returns, excess volatility, volatility clustering, the absence of autocorrelation in raw returns, and the power-law autocorrelations in absolute returns. In addition to this, we find that loss aversion improves market quality and market stability.

  9. Visibility graph network analysis of natural gas price: The case of North American market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mei; Wang, Yaqi; Gao, Cuixia

    2016-11-01

    Fluctuations in prices of natural gas significantly affect global economy. Therefore, the research on the characteristics of natural gas price fluctuations, turning points and its influencing cycle on the subsequent price series is of great significance. Global natural gas trade concentrates on three regional markets: the North American market, the European market and the Asia-Pacific market, with North America having the most developed natural gas financial market. In addition, perfect legal supervision and coordinated regulations make the North American market more open and more competitive. This paper focuses on the North American natural gas market specifically. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price time series is converted to a visibility graph network which provides a new direction for macro analysis of time series, and several indicators are investigated: degree and degree distribution, the average shortest path length and community structure. The internal mechanisms underlying price fluctuations are explored through the indicators. The results show that the natural gas prices visibility graph network (NGP-VGN) is of small-world and scale-free properties simultaneously. After random rearrangement of original price time series, the degree distribution of network becomes exponential distribution, different from the original ones. This means that, the original price time series is of long-range negative correlation fractal characteristic. In addition, nodes with large degree correspond to significant geopolitical or economic events. Communities correspond to time cycles in visibility graph network. The cycles of time series and the impact scope of hubs can be found by community structure partition.

  10. Alternative Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy with Financial Frictions: The Case of Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongseung Jung

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper first shows an empirical result of VAR that Korean economy has experienced a severe economic contraction to an exogenous country spread shock. To analyze the effect of alternative monetary policy on the economy, the paper sets up a multi-sector small open economy new Keynesian (NK hereafter model with financial frictions due to asymmetric information between firms and financial intermediaries along the line of Bernanke et al. (1999. It shows that the small economy with financial frictions is more vulnerable to the exogenous shocks such as the foreign exchange rate shock under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange regime. It also shows that the interest rate rule that responds to financial market conditions is better than any other interest rate rules only if it does not react to the exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, an interest rate rule that responds to the exchange rate fluctuations, i.e. the monetary policy under the managed floating exchange rate regime is inferior to the monetary policy rules that do not respond to the exchange rate fluctuations. Finally, it shows that the monetary authority needs to stabilize a narrow price index such as domestic price index rather than a general price index such as consumer price index under the financial friction circumstances.

  11. Pricing of Asian temperature risk

    OpenAIRE

    Benth, Fred; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; López Cabrera, Brenda

    2009-01-01

    Weather derivatives (WD) are different from most financial derivatives because the underlying weather cannot be traded and therefore cannot be replicated by other financial instruments. The market price of risk (MPR) is an important parameter of the associated equivalent martingale measures used to price and hedge weather futures/options in the market. The majority of papers so far have priced non-tradable assets assuming zero MPR, but this assumption underestimates WD prices. We study the MP...

  12. Econophysics: Master curve for price-impact function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillo, Fabrizio; Farmer, J. Doyne; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    2003-01-01

    The price reaction to a single transaction depends on transaction volume, the identity of the stock, and possibly many other factors. Here we show that, by taking into account the differences in liquidity for stocks of different size classes of market capitalization, we can rescale both the average price shift and the transaction volume to obtain a uniform price-impact curve for all size classes of firm for four different years (1995-98). This single-curve collapse of the price-impact function suggests that fluctuations from the supply-and-demand equilibrium for many financial assets, differing in economic sectors of activity and market capitalization, are governed by the same statistical rule.

  13. THE PROBLEMS OF TRANSFER PRICING

    OpenAIRE

    Tursunova Nargiza

    2015-01-01

    Each item has a price, but not every company is able to independently set the price at which it wants to sell its goods. Firms need to have a streamlined method of setting prices for their goods, and their financial condition depends on it. When choosing a method of pricing, there must be considered and internal and external constraints. The paper discusses the stages of formation of prices in a continuous process of pricing, as well as methods of pricing, their advantages and disadvantages. ...

  14. ACCOUNTING INNOVATION ANALYSIS FOR THE STOCK PRICES AND MACROECONOMIC FACTORS OF FIVE ASEAN COUNTRIES DURING AND POST THE 1997 ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adwin Surja Atmadja

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to examine some of the dynamic interactions of stock prices and macroeconomic factors in five ASEAN countries, Indonesia; Malaysia; the Philippines; Singapore; and Thailand with particular attention to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and period onwards. Using monthly time series data of the countries, accounting innovation analyses based on vector autoregressive (VAR analytical framework is employed to empirically examine the interaction among the variables. This research reveals that, firstly, a shock to a particular variable in the model results in various contemporaneous reactions by other variables across the countries during the sample period. Secondly, the general forecast error variance decomposition results likely reinforce the outcomes of the general impulse response analyses in most of the countries. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Makalah ini ditujukan untuk mengkaji berbagai interaksi dinamik yang terjadi antara indeks harga saham dan factor-faktor ekonomi makro di kelima negara-negara ASEAN, yaitu Indonesia; Malaysia; Filipina; Singapura; dan Thailand pada saat dan setelah berlangsungnya krisis keuangan Asia tahun 1997. Dengan menggunakan data time series bulanan dari negara-negara tersebut, accounting innovation analysis yang didasarkan atas kerangka analisa vector autoregressive (VAR diaplikasikan untuk menguji secara empiris interaksi dinamik antara berbagai variabel tersebut. Penelitian ini mengungkapkan bahwa, pertama, suatu goncangan terhadap suatu variabel tertentu di dalam model menghasilkan berbagai reaksi temporer oleh variabel-variabel lainnya di seluruh negara-negara tersebut selama periode penelitian. Kedua, hasil-hasil analisa general forecast error variance decomposition nampaknya cenderung memperkuat hasil-hasil dari analisa general impulse response di sebagian besar negara-negara ASEAN tersebut. Kata kunci: analisa accounting innovation, krisis keuangan Asia, pasar modal, faktor-faktor ekonomi makro

  15. Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rzeznik, Aleksandra

    This thesis consists of three essays investigating financial and real estate markets and identifying a relationship between them. A 2008 financial crises provides a perfect example of sizeable interactions between US housing market and equity prices, where a negative shock to house prices trigger...... a word-wide recession. Therefore, understanding forces driving investors behaviour and preferences, which in turn affect asset prices in both equity and housing market are of great interest....

  16. COMPANY ACTIVITY FINANCIAL RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caruntu Genu Alexandru

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In economic and financial activity, risk is an inherent financial decisions, encountered in daily agenda of managers of companies. Unexpected changes in the price of a product development not only affect the financial results of a company, but can cause even bankruptcy. In fact, the nature of financial decisions involve uncertainty. Financial decisions are made based on cash flows under future contracts, which are par excellence incerte.Activitatea an enterprise that holds any weight in the industry is subject to risks, since it can not predict with certainty different components of its outcome (cost, quantity, price and operating cycle (purchase, processing, sales.

  17. Marketing Financial Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huddleston, Thomas, Jr.; Batty, Burt F.

    1978-01-01

    Student financial assistance services are becoming a major part of the institutional marketing plan as traditional college-age students decline in numbers and price competition among institutions increases. The effect of financial aid on enrollment and admissions processes is discussed along with the role of the financial aid officer. (Author/LBH)

  18. The Hurst exponent in energy futures prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serletis, Apostolos; Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam

    2007-07-01

    This paper extends the work in Elder and Serletis [Long memory in energy futures prices, Rev. Financial Econ., forthcoming, 2007] and Serletis et al. [Detrended fluctuation analysis of the US stock market, Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos, forthcoming, 2007] by re-examining the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, it uses daily data on energy futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, over the period from July 2, 1990 to November 1, 2006, and a statistical physics approach-the ‘detrending moving average’ technique-providing a reliable framework for testing the information efficiency in financial markets as shown by Alessio et al. [Second-order moving average and scaling of stochastic time series, Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 197-200] and Carbone et al. [Time-dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Physica A 344 (2004) 267-271; Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys. Rev. E 69 (2004) 026105]. The results show that energy futures returns display long memory and that the particular form of long memory is anti-persistence.

  19. Prediction of the daily share price fluctuations of SURAMINV. A neural netword model Predicción del comportamiento diario de la acción de SURAMINV. Un modelo de redes neuronales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Enrique Arrieta Bechara

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available As opposed to the weak form of efficient-market hypothesis, the current study shows that it is possible to do good predictions about the daily share price fluctuations of Suraminv, using artificial neural network models. Furthermore, the forecasts obtained are used to analyze the possibility of gaining extraordinary returns with regard to the Buy & Hold strategy, through negotiation systems with basic rules.La investigación muestra que es posible realizar, por medio de modelos de redes neuronales artificiales, buenas predicciones sobre el comportamiento diario de la acción de SURAMINV. Tales resultados contrarían la hipótesis de la teoría de eficiencia débil de mercado. A partir de dichas predicciones y con el uso de sistemas de negociación, se evalúa la posibilidad de obtener rendimientos extraordinarios sobre la estrategia Buy & Hold teniendo en cuenta costos de transacción y oportunidad.

  20. Complex dynamic behaviors of oriented percolation-based financial time series and Hang Seng index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop a financial time series model by two-dimensional oriented percolation system. • We investigate the statistical behaviors of returns for HSI and the financial model by chaos-exploring methods. • We forecast the phase point of reconstructed phase space by RBF neural network. -- Abstract: We develop a financial price model by the two-dimensional oriented (directed) percolation system. The oriented percolation model is a directed variant of ordinary (isotropic) percolation, and it is applied to describe the fluctuations of stock prices. In this work, we assume that the price fluctuations result from the participants’ investment attitudes toward the market, and we investigate the information spreading among the traders and the corresponding effect on the price fluctuations. We study the complex dynamic behaviors of return time series of the model by using the multiaspect chaos-exploring methods. And we also explore the corresponding behaviors of the actual market index (Hang Seng Index) for comparison. Further, we introduce the radial basic function (RBF) neural network to train and forecast the phase point of reconstructed phase space

  1. Pricing objectives in nonprofit hospitals.

    OpenAIRE

    Bauerschmidt, A D; Jacobs, P

    1985-01-01

    This article reports on a survey of 60 financial managers of nonprofit hospitals in the eastern United States relating to the importance of a number of factors which influence their pricing decisions and the pricing objectives which they pursue. Among the results uncovered by the responses: that trustees are the single most important body in the price-setting process (doctors play a relatively unimportant role); that hospital pricing goals are more related to target net revenue than profit ma...

  2. Understanding Financial Market States Using an Artificial Double Auction Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Kyubin; Oh, Gabjin; Kim, Seunghwan

    2016-01-01

    The ultimate value of theories describing the fundamental mechanisms behind asset prices in financial systems is reflected in the capacity of such theories to understand these systems. Although the models that explain the various states of financial markets offer substantial evidence from the fields of finance, mathematics, and even physics, previous theories that attempt to address the complexities of financial markets in full have been inadequate. We propose an artificial double auction market as an agent-based model to study the origin of complex states in financial markets by characterizing important parameters with an investment strategy that can cover the dynamics of the financial market. The investment strategies of chartist traders in response to new market information should reduce market stability based on the price fluctuations of risky assets. However, fundamentalist traders strategically submit orders based on fundamental value and, thereby stabilize the market. We construct a continuous double auction market and find that the market is controlled by the proportion of chartists, Pc. We show that mimicking the real state of financial markets, which emerges in real financial systems, is given within the range Pc = 0.40 to Pc = 0.85; however, we show that mimicking the efficient market hypothesis state can be generated with values less than Pc = 0.40. In particular, we observe that mimicking a market collapse state is created with values greater than Pc = 0.85, at which point a liquidity shortage occurs, and the phase transition behavior is described at Pc = 0.85.

  3. Higher prices at Canadian gas pumps: international crude oil prices or local market concentration? An empirical investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anindya Sen

    2003-01-01

    There is little consensus on whether higher retail gasoline prices in Canada are the result of international crude oil price fluctuations or local market power exercised by large vertically-integrated firms. I find that although both increasing local market concentration and higher average monthly wholesale prices are positively and significantly associated with higher retail prices, wholesale prices are more important than local market concentration. Similarly, crude oil prices are more important than the number of local wholesalers in determining wholesale prices. These results suggest that movements in gasoline prices are largely the result of input price fluctuations rather than local market structure. (author)

  4. Heterogeneous traders, price-volume signals, and complex asset price dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank H. Westerhoff

    2005-01-01

    model reveal that interactions between fundamentalists and chartists may cause intricate endogenous price fluctuations. Contrary to the intuition, we find that chart trading may increase market stability.

  5. Il crescente indebolimento del sistema finanziario internazionale (The ongoing weakening of the international financial system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.P. GRAY

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A hegemon-by-committee, or a group of nations playing the role of a dominant financial power, is necessary for the international financial system to withstand crises arising from drastic shifts of funds among national currencies, accompanied by large movements of exchange rates. These wide fluctuations in exchange rates and subsequent financial transactions can trigger a collapse of prices in dollar-denominated financial assets in US financial markets, thus undermining the global economy. With no single nation apparently capable of playing the hegemon, international cooperation is imperative. An important theme of the paper is that allocative efficiency may not be compatible with adequate financial stability efficiency.JEL: F31, G28

  6. Price smarter on the Net.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, W; Marn, M; Zawada, C

    2001-02-01

    Companies generally have set prices on the Internet in two ways. Many start-ups have offered untenably low prices in a rush to capture first-mover advantage. Many incumbents have simply charged the same prices on-line as they do off-line. Either way, companies are missing a big opportunity. The fundamental value of the Internet lies not in lowering prices or making them consistent but in optimizing them. After all, if it's easy for customers to compare prices on the Internet, it's also easy for companies to track customers' behavior and adjust prices accordingly. The Net lets companies optimize prices in three ways. First, it lets them set and announce prices with greater precision. Different prices can be tested easily, and customers' responses can be collected instantly. Companies can set the most profitable prices, and they can tap into previously hidden customer demand. Second, because it's so easy to change prices on the Internet, companies can adjust prices in response to even small fluctuations in market conditions, customer demand, or competitors' behavior. Third, companies can use the clickstream data and purchase histories that it collects through the Internet to segment customers quickly. Then it can offer segment-specific prices or promotions immediately. By taking full advantage of the unique possibilities afforded by the Internet to set prices with precision, adapt to changing circumstances quickly, and segment customers accurately, companies can get their pricing right. It's one of the ultimate drivers of e-business success.

  7. İşgal Yıllarında İzmir İktisadi Bölgesinde Fiyat Hareketleri Price Movements In İzmir Financial District During The Occupation Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiz ÇOLAK

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Izmir has always had an important role because of its involvement both at the beginning and the end of the National Struggle. Greece, which used to be a vassal of the Ottoman State, occupied Izmir on 15 May 1919. Greece was supported by the British Empire and Izmir had a crucial location for their economy and for their Megola Idea ambitions. This occupation did not remain limited to Izmir, but continued further including its hinterland. Consequently, occupation of Izmir accelerated the organization of the national resistance in Anatolia. The most important front wars of military operation in the National Struggle took place in the Western Anatolia, Izmir and its hinterland and repossession of Izmir by the Turkish army on 9 September 1922 marked the end of the war.Before the Armistice, during the First World War years, product and commodity prices considerably increased because of commodity shortages and continuous currency depreciation. This situation continued during the Armistice and occupation years after the Armistice. Increase in prices reduced the public purchasing power and with the inclusion of profiteering and black-marketeering to this chaos environment, Anatolian people had difficulty even in finding bread to eat.In this study, price increases, which were the concrete source of public financial difficulties during the occupation years, and the reasons behind these price increases in Izmir and in its hinterland will be analyzed in the light of period resources and comparisons between the status before and after the occupation years will be made.

  8. Chaotic structure of oil prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bildirici, Melike; Sonustun, Fulya Ozaksoy

    2018-01-01

    The fluctuations in oil prices are very complicated and therefore, it is unable to predict its effects on economies. For modelling complex system of oil prices, linear economic models are not sufficient and efficient tools. Thus, in recent years, economists attached great attention to non-linear structure of oil prices. For analyzing this relationship, GARCH types of models were used in some papers. Distinctively from the other papers, in this study, we aimed to analyze chaotic pattern of oil prices. Thus, it was used the Lyapunov Exponents and Hennon Map to determine chaotic behavior of oil prices for the selected time period.

  9. S. 446: This Act may be cited as the Price-Anderson Financial Accountability Amendments of 1989, introduced in the Senate, One Hundred First Congress, First Session, February 23, 1989

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    S. 446 would amend the Price-Anderson provisions of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 to provide for the financial accountability of certain contractors of the Department of Energy. The bill would allow the Attorney General to bring action in court to recover any amount paid by the Federal Government to a contractor for public liability resulting from gross negligence or willful misconduct of such contractor (or subcontractor or supplier of such contractor). The amount recoverable would not exceed the total contract price received by the contractor. The President may exempt a contractor from some provisions if he determines it is necessary to protect the national security. Renegotiation of contracts is allowed. The amendments would take effect one year after the date of enactment of this law

  10. The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Statoil

    OpenAIRE

    Johannessen, Frida; Skjelvik, Karina

    2017-01-01

    Master's thesis in Finance PROBLEM STATEMENT How do oil price movements impact Statoil ASA? RESEARCH QUESTIONS Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s capital expenditures and operating expenditures? Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s share price? ANALYSIS To analyse the impact of oil price shocks, Ordinary Least Squares regression has been employed for two separate time periods. First, the period from Q4...

  11. Navigating through the maze of pricing and affordability of branded pharmaceuticals in the midst of the financial crisis: a comparative study among five European recession countries, from a Cyprus perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrou, Panagiotis; Talias, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    Financial recession mandated the introduction of harsh austerity measures. Health, and particularly pharmaceuticals, constitute a significant part of public expenditure and as such they have been subject to significant budget reduction and stringent policies. As a consequence of these measures, an increasing percentage of patients resort to private sector for acquisition of their prescribed pharmaceuticals, due to exclusion of public health care beneficiary status, reduction of breadth of national formularies, delays in reimbursement and excessive waiting times. Affordability for pharmaceuticals in the private sector is of paramount importance since household disposable income plummets and more people are prone to impoverishment. This is critical for branded products, whose active substance and trademark are under patent protection, since no alternative options exist while their monopoly status imply that their prices are high. The impact on affordability regarding access of patient to necessary pharmaceutical care has not been documented in developed countries. A laspeyer index was constructed to compare prices of branded pharmaceuticals and assess affordability, by adjusting price index with Gross Domestic Product Purchase Power Parity per capita. Laspeyer index compares prices based on weights, which in our study are the corresponding sales of products in Cyprus. Moreover, we define the percentage of population that will face catastrophic pharmaceutical expenditure after acquisition of one product from eight major and common therapeutic categories. We used data from five European recession countries: Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece and Cyprus, for 48 products which were selected based on sales. Cyprus displays the highest prices for pharmaceuticals. By adjusting for Gross Domestic Product Purchase Power Parity per capita, affordability is worst for Cyprus and Portugal. As more patients have to resort to private sector for provision of adequate and timely

  12. Sources of Economic Fluctuations in Central America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilfredo Toledo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Using panel data from Central America, this paper studies the determining factors of inflation and aggregate output fluctuations by estimating two Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR models. Price and output variables are included in one of the models, whereas M2 and the price of oil are additional variables in the other one. Findings of this study suggest that price is determined by the demand, while output seems to be influenced mainly by the supply shocks in that area. It was also evidenced that the price of oil does not have a significant impact on the general price level in that region.

  13. Policy on energy pricing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webb, M. G.

    1977-10-15

    Some economic principles of energy pricing in a market type economy in which there is consumer sovereignty are discussed. Thus resources will be allocated via the production processes in line with the preferences of consumers as revealed by their purchases of goods and services. Prices play the crucial role of coordinating instruments in this allocative process. It is assumed that all the energy industries are in the public sector. The following topics are discussed: the specification of objectives for the energy sector; marginal cost pricing; problems associated with the measurement of marginal costs; some aspects of the environmental costs associated with energy production and use, and some issues related to time differentiated tariffs; the modification of prices to achieve financial targets; and the use of energy prices to achieve income distribution objectives.

  14. Understanding Financial Innovation: An Introduction to Derivative Financial Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, J. N.

    1992-01-01

    Explains the use of forwards, futures, swaps, and options in international currency trading. Argues that pricing options are based on the same basic principles as pricing other financial instruments. Concludes that, although financial markets have developed several new products, hedging and speculation involve similar processes. (CFR)

  15. Energy fluctuations in a biharmonically driven nonlinear system

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    analyse the nature of work and heat fluctuations and show that the steady state fluctuation .... The above equation is the statement of the first law of thermodynamics and ..... One of the authors (AMJ) thanks DST, India for financial support.

  16. Quantum fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynaud, S.; Giacobino, S.; Zinn-Justin, J.

    1997-01-01

    This course is dedicated to present in a pedagogical manner the recent developments in peculiar fields concerned by quantum fluctuations: quantum noise in optics, light propagation through dielectric media, sub-Poissonian light generated by lasers and masers, quantum non-demolition measurements, quantum electrodynamics applied to cavities and electrical circuits involving superconducting tunnel junctions. (A.C.)

  17. Understanding gasoline pricing in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-04-01

    This brochure is designed to help consumers understand how gasoline is priced and explained why prices increase, fluctuate and vary by location, city or region. The price of a litre of gasoline reflects the costs of crude oil, refining, retailing and taxes. Taxes are usually the largest single component of gasoline prices, averaging 40 to 50 per cent of the pump price. The cost of crude oil makes up another 35 to 45 per cent of the price. Refining costs make up 10 to 15 per cent while the remaining 5 to 10 per cent represents retail costs. Gasoline retailers make a profit of about 1 cent per litre. The latest network technology allows national and regional retail chains to constantly monitor price fluctuations to change their prices at gasoline stations at a moments notice to keep up with the competition and to protect their market shares. Several government studies, plus the Conference Board of Canada, have reported that competition is working in favour of Canadian motorists. This brochure also explained the drawbacks of regulating crude and pump prices with the reminder that crude prices were regulated in the 1970s with many negative consequences. 2 tabs., 1 fig

  18. Managing industrial price risk: a balancing act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muse, J-F.

    2000-01-01

    The challenge of managing industrial price risk is assessed by a senior executive of Cargill, a diversified industrial conglomerate, involved in steel manufacturing and recycling, oilseeds, cocoa, beef, pork, and poultry processing, fertilizer and fruit juice production, in addition to trading and financial risk management. Energy is a key component in many of Cargill's businesses, hence the company has good reason to be concerned about price volatility. The effects of energy risk management on the company's shareholders are demonstrated by an analysis of month-to-month price fluctuations over the Nov 1999 to Oct 2000 period, showing the monthly value of risk at the 95 per cent confidence level as $4,832,195. The effects of alternatives for an end-user such as passing on cost to customers, improving energy efficiency. fuel switching and production curtailment, are explored and limitations and problems with each of the approaches are discussed. The best options for industrial end-users of natural gas are suggested to be a proactive risk management program in the short-term and asset diversification, fuel switching, and geographic relocation of production facilities in the long-term

  19. A mini-review on econophysics: Comparative study of Chinese and western financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Bo; Jiang Xiong-Fei; Ni Peng-Yun

    2014-01-01

    We present a review of our recent research in econophysics, and focus on the comparative study of Chinese and western financial markets. By virtue of concepts and methods in statistical physics, we investigate the time correlations and spatial structure of financial markets based on empirical high-frequency data. We discover that the Chinese stock market shares common basic properties with the western stock markets, such as the fat-tail probability distribution of price returns, the long-range auto-correlation of volatilities, and the persistence probability of volatilities, while it exhibits very different higher-order time correlations of price returns and volatilities, spatial correlations of individual stock prices, and large-fluctuation dynamic behaviors. Furthermore, multi-agent-based models are developed to simulate the microscopic interaction and dynamic evolution of the stock markets. (topical review - statistical physics and complex systems)

  20. Price setting in turbulent times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsson, Tjörvi; Pétursdóttir, Ásgerdur; Vignisdóttir, Karen Á.

    This price setting survey among Icelandic firms aims to make two contributions to the literature. First, it studies price setting in an advanced economy within a more turbulent macroeconomic environment than has previously been done. The results indicate that price adjustments are to a larger...... extent driven by exchange rate fluctuations than in most other advanced countries. The median Icelandic firm reviews its prices every four months and changes them every six months. The main sources of price rigidity and the most commonly used price setting methods are the same as in most other countries....... A second contribution to the literature is our analysis of the nexus between price setting and exchange rate movements, a topic that has attracted surprisingly limited attention in this survey-based literature. A novel aspect of our approach is to base our analysis on a categorisation of firms...

  1. Financial Rogue Waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan Zhenya

    2010-01-01

    We analytically give the financial rogue waves in the nonlinear option pricing model due to Ivancevic, which is nonlinear wave alternative of the Black-Scholes model. These rogue wave solutions may he used to describe the possible physical mechanisms for rogue wave phenomenon in financial markets and related fields.

  2. Investment Risk in the Context of Price Changes on the Real Estate and Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolski Rafał

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The residential real estate market is thought to show a tendency for wide fluctuations in prices, as a result of which price bubbles appear. This element of risk has a direct bearing on investors interested in speculation and those seeking to meet their housing needs. Wide fluctuations in the values of real estate affect the investors’ financial situation in many ways, by determining the possibility of meeting one’s housing needs, reducing or sometimes raising creditworthiness, and by increasing investment risk measured by volatility. Omitting the obvious social dimension of the residential real estate market and concentrating on its financial aspects, the author of the article analyses to what degree wide swings in prices can be recognized as specific to this market. To this end, the volatility of prices in the stock market and in the secondary housing market in Poland is compared. An analysis is performed to establish which of them has higher average volatility measures or rates of return, i.e. which of them is more profitable or secure for investors. Statistical tests are used to find out whether average rates of return or measures of risk are equal or different between the two markets. The results of the research show that the secondary housing market and the stock market differ concerning cumulative average rates of return and standard deviations. In the first of them, they are respectively higher and lower.

  3. Prospects for oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caddy, P.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the wave in oil prices which occurred in 1991, although appearing to suggest price instability, in fact shows the opposite. Steady oscillation between a low price level that leads to new customers and a high price that encourages customers to switch to alternatives is a sign of a stable market. This relative stability was achieved against the background of the political upheaval in the USSR and Eastern Europe and its unpredictable consequences. Such political uncertainties to one side, the difficulties of assessing demand trends in the light of the imponderables of the state of the world economy and the weather are stressed. Despite these problems, the view is expressed that correct reading of signals up the supply chain by producers should ensure continued relative price stability. This is not to say that prices will stay exactly the same, just that they will be bound within a trading range set by anticipated consumer and producer responses to the fluctuating prices. (UK)

  4. Eroding market stability by proliferation of financial instruments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caccioli, F.; Marsili, M.; Vivo, P.

    2009-10-01

    We contrast Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), the theoretical basis for the development of financial instruments, with a dynamical picture of an interacting market, in a simple setting. The proliferation of financial instruments apparently provides more means for risk diversification, making the market more efficient and complete. In the simple market of interacting traders discussed here, the proliferation of financial instruments erodes systemic stability and it drives the market to a critical state characterized by large susceptibility, strong fluctuations and enhanced correlations among risks. This suggests that the hypothesis of APT may not be compatible with a stable market dynamics. In this perspective, market stability acquires the properties of a common good, which suggests that appropriate measures should be introduced in derivative markets, to preserve stability. in here

  5. The relationship between renewable energy assets and crude oil prices : an empirical analysis with emphasis on the effects of the financial crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Grøm, Halvdan Alexander

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis I have analysed the relationship between renewable energy stocks and the price of crude oil. As a part of my analysis I have provided a basic economic overview of the research period and how the value of renewable energy stocks and crude oil is determined. In order to analyse this relationship I have utilized a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) in addition to a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). My findings indicate that the aforementioned assets follow a simi...

  6. The Effect of Merger and Acquisition Announcements on Stock Price Behaviour and Financial Performance Changes: a Case of Banks in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Harjito, D. Agus; Sulong, Zunaidah

    2006-01-01

    This study attempts to examine the effect of mergers and acquisitions completion announcements on the stock price behavior for two anchor banks; Hong Leong Bank Berhad and Arab Malaysian Bank Berhad. The analysis uses the event study technique, the Naïve Model, a model that is based on Market Model with constrained  = 0 and  = 1 to compute the abnormal returns surrounding the mergers and acquisitions completion announcement date; also to evaluate the effect of mergers and acquisitions ...

  7. The Effect of Merger and Acquisition Announcements on Stock Price Behaviour and Financial Performance Changes: A Case of Banks in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Harjito, D. Agus; Sulong, Zunaidah

    2009-01-01

    This study attempts to examine the effect of mergers and acquisitions completion announcements on the stock price behavior for two anchor banks; Hong Leong Bank Berhad and Arab Malaysian Bank Berhad. The analysis uses the event study technique, the Naïve Model, a model that is based on Market Model with constrained  = 0 and  = 1 to compute the abnormal returns surrounding the mergers and acquisitions completion announcement date; also to evaluate the effect of mergers and acquisitions compl...

  8. Price fairness

    OpenAIRE

    Diller, Hermann

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this article is to integrate the various strands of fair price research into a concise conceptual model. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed price fairness model is based on a review of the fair pricing literature, incorporating research reported in not only English but also German. Findings – The proposed fair price model depicts seven components of a fair price: distributive fairness, consistent behaviour, personal respect and regard for the partner, fair dea...

  9. Coherence and incoherence collective behavior in financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shangmei; Xie, Qiuchao; Lu, Qing; Jiang, Xin; Chen, Wei

    2015-10-01

    Financial markets have been extensively studied as highly complex evolving systems. In this paper, we quantify financial price fluctuations through a coupled dynamical system composed of phase oscillators. We find that a Financial Coherence and Incoherence (FCI) coexistence collective behavior emerges as the system evolves into the stable state, in which the stocks split into two groups: one is represented by coherent, phase-locked oscillators, the other is composed of incoherent, drifting oscillators. It is demonstrated that the size of the coherent stock groups fluctuates during the economic periods according to real-world financial instabilities or shocks. Further, we introduce the coherent characteristic matrix to characterize the involvement dynamics of stocks in the coherent groups. Clustering results on the matrix provides a novel manifestation of the correlations among stocks in the economic periods. Our analysis for components of the groups is consistent with the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) classification and can also figure out features for newly developed industries. These results can provide potentially implications on characterizing the inner dynamical structure of financial markets and making optimal investment into tragedies.

  10. Essays on Derivatives Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas

    . With the existence of a liquid market for derivatives with variance as underlying, such as VIX options, VIX futures and a well-developed over-the-counter market for options on variance swaps, it is important to consider models that are able to fit these markets while consistently pricing vanilla options...... financial models, and most importantly, to be aware of their limitations. Following that belief, this thesis consists of three independent and self-contained papers, all dealing with topics in derivatives pricing. The first paper considers the pricing of traffic light options, which are appropriate...... the market for multivariate credit instruments, we take a step back and focus on single-name default modeling and introduce two new model classes for modeling of the default time of a company. Finally, in the third paper we propose a consistent pricing model for index and volatility derivatives...

  11. Trading network predicts stock price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-16

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  12. Nodal price volatility reduction and reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goel, L.; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Peng

    2008-01-01

    With the development of restructured power systems, the conventional 'same for all customers' electricity price is getting replaced by nodal prices. Electricity prices will fluctuate with time and nodes. In restructured power systems, electricity demands will interact mutually with prices. Customers may shift some of their electricity consumption from time slots of high electricity prices to those of low electricity prices if there is a commensurate price incentive. The demand side load shift will influence nodal prices in return. This interaction between demand and price can be depicted using demand-price elasticity. This paper proposes an evaluation technique incorporating the impact of the demand-price elasticity on nodal prices, system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. In this technique, demand and price correlations are represented using the demand-price elasticity matrix which consists of self/cross-elasticity coefficients. Nodal prices are determined using optimal power flow (OPF). The OPF and customer damage functions (CDFs) are combined in the proposed reliability evaluation technique to assess the reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is simulated to illustrate the developed techniques. The simulation results show that demand-price elasticity reduces the nodal price volatility and improves both the system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. Demand-price elasticity can therefore be utilized as a possible efficient tool to reduce price volatility and to enhance the reliability of restructured power systems. (author)

  13. Oil transformation sector modelling: price interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurer, A.

    1992-01-01

    A global oil and oil product prices evolution model is proposed that covers the transformation sector incidence and the final user price establishment together with price interactions between gaseous and liquid hydrocarbons. High disparities among oil product prices in the various consumer zones (North America, Western Europe, Japan) are well described and compared with the low differences between oil supply prices in these zones. Final user price fluctuations are shown to be induced by transformation differences and competition; natural gas market is also modelled

  14. Carbon Pricing: Design, Experiences and Issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carbon Pricing reflects upon and further develops the ongoing and worthwhile global debate into how to design carbon pricing, and how to utilize the financial proceeds in the best possible way for society. The world has recently witnessed a significant downward adjustment in fossil fuel prices...

  15. Dynamic Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes h...... of dynamic pricing can lead to increased willingness of consumers to participate in DR programs which in turn improve the operation of liberalized electricity markets.......Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes...

  16. Option's value - Greek measures fluctuations and their consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izabela Pruchnicka-Grabias

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Options are financial instruments that can be applied in many situations. Options buyers sell risk which is bought by their sellers who are obliged to reduce it as much as possible. It can be done by using hedging strategies based on Greek letters and options values analysis. The author proves that Greek letters are not constant during the time of option’s life. The paper shows to what extent they are influenced by such factors as risk free interest rate, volatility, underlying asset price and time to maturity. The conclusion is that options sellers must play an active role, i.e. follow fluctuations of all these parameters and modify their hedging portfolios regularly.

  17. 卖空约束下金融市场欧式期权定价研究%Pricing European Options in a Financial Market with Short-sale Constraints

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黎露

    2012-01-01

    摘 要:针对存在卖空约束金融市场上的期权定价问题,总结了3种定价方法,并在讨论超复制方法的基础上计算出无套利区间和唯一平价.重点分析了在超复制方法的模型中考虑参数股息率g(t),得出了无套利区间端点的更加有效的表述形式.%Aiming at the option pricing method in a financial market with short - sale constraints,three most important methods in this area were summarized. And especially based on the super - replicating method, the arbitrage - free interval and the u-nique fair price were figured out. Furthermore,the new parameter - dividend rate g(t) in the model was investigated and a more effective representation was obtained for the endpoints of the arbitrage - free interval.

  18. A Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using Hybrid Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senapati, Manas Ranjan; Das, Sumanjit; Mishra, Sarojananda

    2018-06-01

    The foremost challenge for investors is to select stock price by analyzing financial data which is a menial task as of distort associated and massive pattern. Thereby, selecting stock poses one of the greatest difficulties for investors. Nowadays, prediction of financial market like stock market, exchange rate and share value are very challenging field of research. The prediction and scrutinization of stock price is also a potential area of research due to its vital significance in decision making by financial investors. This paper presents an intelligent and an optimal model for prophecy of stock market price using hybridization of Adaline Neural Network (ANN) and modified Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The connoted model hybrid of Adaline and PSO uses fluctuations of stock market as a factor and employs PSO to optimize and update weights of Adaline representation to depict open price of Bombay stock exchange. The prediction performance of the proposed model is compared with different representations like interval measurements, CMS-PSO and Bayesian-ANN. The result indicates that proposed scheme has an edge over all the juxtaposed schemes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

  19. Impact of regulated price adjustments on price variability in a very low inflation transition economy: Case of Armenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aghassi Mkrtchyan

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of monetary policy and administrative price adjustments on price variability in a low inflation economy characterized by relatively frequent administrative price adjustments. Fluctuations of market determined prices, prices of agricultural goods in particular, are linked to poor synchronization between administrative price changes and monetary policy. If monetary policy does not account for expected changes in administrative prices, demand for free goods shifts, causing fluctuation of prices for agricultural goods, because the supply of these goods is highly inelastic in Armenia. The findings contribute to a better understanding of agricultural price variability during 1998-2002. The impact of macroeconomic policy and structural adjustments on income distribution and rural poverty incidence are also examined. This research has immediate policy implications, since Armenia will continue to undergo major upward price adjustments of regulated prices, which may have a negative impact on income distribution unless aggregate demand management is changed.

  20. Impact of new healthcare legislation and price policy on healthcare services provider at the time of financial crisis. A 10 years study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivona Malovecka

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring, calculation and assessment of healthcare services prosperity in the community pharmacy with the help of financial analysis indicators for the years 2003-2012, using financial statements was conducted, with respect to profitability, debt, liquidity, working capital, and efficiency parameters. These ratios reflect various changes that hold between years 2003 and 2012. Under the time of financial crisis, recession and serious socio-economic changes the profitability parameter Gross Profit ranged from 2003-2011 = 16.12-22.79% (average = 19.20%; mean = 19.78%; σ = 2.41, but in 2012 decreased on 14.35%. Net Profit ranged 2003-2011 = 10.96-18.3% (average = 14.62%; mean = 16.62%; σ = 4.92, while in 2012 reached only 2.29%. Debt ratio ranged from 2003-2012= 2.33-4.81 (average = 3.44; mean = 3.07; σ = 0.82. Liquidity parameters Current Ratio spread between 2003-2012 = 1.13-1.71 (average = 1.43; mean = 1.46; σ = 0.15 and Quick Ratio spread between 2003-2012 = 0.72-1.27 (average = 1.07; mean = 1.09; σ = 0.15. Working Capital Ratio ranged from 2003-2012 = 2.66-12.94 (average = 9.58; mean = 10.06; σ = 3.1 and efficiency ratios were measured either. All changes that have taken place in the society had an impact on community pharmacy finance by worsening its profitability, liquidity, working capital and some of efficiency parameters. Therefore the stability of community pharmacy may be threatened and may affect its future performance.http://dx.doi.org/10.7175/fe.v16i1.1040

  1. Price Strategies in Banking Marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iuliana Cetina

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available All organizations must settle a price for the services they offer. The price for services is an important element of the marketing mix, being an important income source for the organization. The settlement of a correct price, both for the market and the competition, is a significant element for the sector of financial - banking services. Another important factor to take into consideration is the fact that the banks do not settle only the prices for individual services, but also coordinate their prices for service packages. As the competition in the financial - banking services has intensified, the settlement of correct prices has become an essential element for the marketing strategy. Nevertheless it is important to remind that the price is not a central element. There are other significant grounds, the price being only one of the elements of the marketing mix. Although in Romania many customers may be sensitive in present to the price, as the competition will increase, the quality of the services will become more important to the customers, and the demand will be complex.

  2. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Bo

    2014-01-01

    Against a background of rather mixed evidence about transfer pricing practices in multinational enterprises (MNEs) and varying attitudes on the part of tax authorities, this paper explores how multiple aims in transfer pricing can be pursued across four different transfer pricing regimes. A MNE h...

  3. Gold prices

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph G. Haubrich

    1998-01-01

    The price of gold commands attention because it serves as an indicator of general price stability or inflation. But gold is also a commodity, used in jewelry and by industry, so demand and supply affect its pricing and need to be considered when gold is a factor in monetary policy decisions.

  4. High oil prices are here to stay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toennesen, Bjoern Inge

    2004-01-01

    The presentation discusses the development in the OPEC countries with emphasis on oil price fluctuation, spare production capacity and OPEC control. The capacity expansion in non-OPEC countries and the global demand development are also surveyed. (tk)

  5. Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Zhen-Hua; Zou, Le-Le; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines carbon price volatility using data from the European Union Emission Trading Scheme from a nonlinear dynamics point of view. First, we use a random walk model, including serial correlation and variance ratio tests, to determine whether carbon price history information is fully reflected in current carbon price. The empirical research results show that carbon price is not a random walk: the price history information is not fully reflected in current carbon price. Second, use R/S, modified R/S and ARFIMA to analyse the memory of carbon price history. For the period April 2005-December 2008, the modified Hurst index of the carbon price is 0.4859 and the d value of ARFIMA is -0.1191, indicating short-term memory of the carbon price. Third, we use chaos theory to analyse the influence of the carbon market internal mechanism on carbon price, i.e., the market's positive and negative feedback mechanism and the heterogeneous environment. Chaos theory proves that the correlation dimension of carbon price increases. The maximal Lyapunov exponent is positive and large. There is no obvious complex endogenous phenomenon of nonlinear dynamics the carbon price fluctuation. The carbon market is mildly chaotic, showing both market and fractal market characteristics. Price fluctuation is not only influenced by the internal market mechanism, but is also impacted by the heterogeneous environment. Finally, we provide suggestions for regulation and development of carbon market.

  6. Vector financial rogue waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, Zhenya

    2011-01-01

    The coupled nonlinear volatility and option pricing model presented recently by Ivancevic is investigated, which generates a leverage effect, i.e., stock volatility is (negatively) correlated to stock returns, and can be regarded as a coupled nonlinear wave alternative of the Black–Scholes option pricing model. In this Letter, we analytically propose vector financial rogue waves of the coupled nonlinear volatility and option pricing model without an embedded w-learning. Moreover, we exhibit their dynamical behaviors for chosen different parameters. The vector financial rogue wave (rogon) solutions may be used to describe the possible physical mechanisms for the rogue wave phenomena and to further excite the possibility of relative researches and potential applications of vector rogue waves in the financial markets and other related fields. -- Highlights: ► We investigate the coupled nonlinear volatility and option pricing model. ► We analytically present vector financial rogue waves. ► The vector financial rogue waves may be used to describe the extreme events in financial markets. ► This results may excite the relative researches and potential applications of vector rogue waves.

  7. High prices on electric power now again?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doorman, Gerard

    2003-01-01

    Deregulation of the electric power market has yielded low prices for the consumers throughout the 1990s. Consumption has now increased considerably, but little new production has been added. This results in high prices in dry years, but to understand this one must understand price formation in the Nordic spot market. The high prices are a powerful signal to the consumers to reduce consumption, but they are also a signal to the producers to seize any opportunity to increase production. However, the construction of new dams etc. stirs up the environmentalists. Ordinary consumers may protect themselves against high prices by signing fixed-price contracts. For those who can tolerate price fluctuations, spot prices are a better alternative than the standard contract with variable price

  8. RTE - 2012 financial results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricour, Olivia; Marguier, Marina; Lartigau, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    The mission of RTE, the French electricity Transportation grid, a public service assignment, is to balance the electricity supply and demand in real time. This report presents RTE's financial results for 2012: increase of investments for services to clients, performance results, financial balance, stability of the economical model. RTE's regulated economical model, main financial indicators, 2007-2012 investments, 2012 investments by category, 2012 turnover, 2012 costs structure, taxes, financial balance sheet at the end of 2012, and the share of electricity transport in the electricity price are presented in appendixes

  9. Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serra, Teresa; Gil, José M.

    2012-01-01

    This article studies the capacity of biofuels to reduce motor fuel price fluctuations. For this purpose, we study dependence between crude oil and biodiesel blend prices in Spain. Copula models are used for this purpose. Results suggest that the practice of blending biodiesel with diesel can protect consumers against extreme crude oil price increases. - Highlights: ► We study the capacity of biofuels to reduce fuel price fluctuations. ► We focus on Spanish biodiesel market. ► Biodiesel and crude oil price dependence is studied using copula functions. ► Biodiesel can protect consumers against extreme crude oil price increases.

  10. Interest Rate Derivative Pricing with Stochastic Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, B.

    2012-01-01

    One purpose of exotic derivative pricing models is to enable financial institutions to quantify and manage their financial risk, arising from large books of portfolios. These portfolios consist of many non-standard exotic financial products. Risk is managed by means of the evaluation of sensitivity

  11. Estimating the Volatility of Cocoa Price Return with ARCH and GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Dynamics of market changing as a result of market liberalization have an impact on agricultural commodities price fluctuation. High volatility on cocoa price movement reflect its price and market risk. Because of price and market uncertainty, the market players face some difficulties to make a decision in determining business development. This research was conducted to 1 understand the characteristics of cocoa price movement in cocoa futures trading, and 2analyze cocoa price volatility using ARCH and GARCH type model. Research was carried out by direct observation on the pattern of cocoa price movement in the futures trading and volatility analysis based on secondary data. The data was derived from Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE Futures U.S. Reports. The analysis result showed that GARCH is the best model to predict the value of average cocoa price return volatility, because it meets criteria of three diagnostic checking, which are ARCH-LM test, residual autocorrelation test and residual normality test. Based on the ARCH-LM test, GARCH (1,1did not have heteroscedasticity, because p-value  2 (0.640139and F-statistic (0.640449 were greater than 0.05. Results of residual autocorrelation test indicated that residual value of GARCH (1,1 was random, because the statistic value of Ljung-Box (LBon the 36 th lag is smaller than the statistic value of  2. Whereas, residual normality test concluded the residual of GARCH (1,1 were normally distributed, because AR (29, MA (29, RESID (-1^2, and GARCH (-1 were significant at 5% significance level. Increasing volatility value indicate high potential risk. Price risk can be reduced by managing financial instrument in futures trading such as forward and futures contract, and hedging. The research result also give an insight to the market player for decision making and determining time of hedging. Key words: Volatility, price, cocoa, GARCH, risk, futures trading

  12. Canada; Financial Sector Stability Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    International Monetary Fund

    2014-01-01

    This report discusses key findings of the Financial Sector Stability Assessment on Canada. Canada’s financial system successfully navigated the global financial crisis, and stress tests suggest that major financial institutions would continue to be resilient to credit, liquidity, and contagion risks arising from a severe stress scenario. Elevated housing prices and high household debt remain an area of concern, though targeted prudential and macroprudential measures are proving to be effectiv...

  13. Fluctuation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, J.

    1980-01-01

    This paper briefly reviews sources of noise in Josephson junctions, and the limits they impose on the sensitivity of dc and rf SQUIDS. The results are strictly valid only for a resistively shunted junction (RSJ) with zero capacitance, but should be applicable to point contact junctions and microbridges in so far as these devices can be approximated by the RSJ model. Fluctuations arising from Nyquist noise in the resistive shunt of a single junction are discussed in the limit eI/sub o/R/k/sub B/T << 1 in which a classical treatment is appropriate, and then extend the treatment to the limit eI/sub o/R/k/sub B/T greater than or equal to 1 in which quantum effects become important. The Nyquist limit theory is used to calculate the noise in a dc SQUID, and the results are compared with a number of practical devices. The quantum limit is briefly considered. Results for the predicted sensitivity of rf SQUIDS are presented, and also compared with a number of practical devices. Finally, the importance of l/f noise (f is the frequency) in limiting the low frequency performance of SQUIDS is discussed

  14. Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

    For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

  15. Understanding Financial Market States Using an Artificial Double Auction Market.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyubin Yim

    Full Text Available The ultimate value of theories describing the fundamental mechanisms behind asset prices in financial systems is reflected in the capacity of such theories to understand these systems. Although the models that explain the various states of financial markets offer substantial evidence from the fields of finance, mathematics, and even physics, previous theories that attempt to address the complexities of financial markets in full have been inadequate. We propose an artificial double auction market as an agent-based model to study the origin of complex states in financial markets by characterizing important parameters with an investment strategy that can cover the dynamics of the financial market. The investment strategies of chartist traders in response to new market information should reduce market stability based on the price fluctuations of risky assets. However, fundamentalist traders strategically submit orders based on fundamental value and, thereby stabilize the market. We construct a continuous double auction market and find that the market is controlled by the proportion of chartists, Pc. We show that mimicking the real state of financial markets, which emerges in real financial systems, is given within the range Pc = 0.40 to Pc = 0.85; however, we show that mimicking the efficient market hypothesis state can be generated with values less than Pc = 0.40. In particular, we observe that mimicking a market collapse state is created with values greater than Pc = 0.85, at which point a liquidity shortage occurs, and the phase transition behavior is described at Pc = 0.85.

  16. Translation of Financial Statements

    OpenAIRE

    Dalthan Simas; Otavio De Medeiros

    2005-01-01

    This paper has the purpose of surveying and critically analyzing the effects of accounting procedures which are closely related to groups of companies operating multinationally. These are the methods for translation of financial statements, e.g. the Temporal and the Closing- rate Methods, as far as those methods are embodied in accounting standards which have been either recommended or adopted by countries such as the UK and US. We conclude that with regard to changing prices, General Price L...

  17. Modeling financial markets by self-organized criticality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2015-10-01

    We present a financial market model, characterized by self-organized criticality, that is able to generate endogenously a realistic price dynamics and to reproduce well-known stylized facts. We consider a community of heterogeneous traders, composed by chartists and fundamentalists, and focus on the role of informative pressure on market participants, showing how the spreading of information, based on a realistic imitative behavior, drives contagion and causes market fragility. In this model imitation is not intended as a change in the agent's group of origin, but is referred only to the price formation process. We introduce in the community also a variable number of random traders in order to study their possible beneficial role in stabilizing the market, as found in other studies. Finally, we also suggest some counterintuitive policy strategies able to dampen fluctuations by means of a partial reduction of information.

  18. Financialization and financial profit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Guillén

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This article starts from the critical review of the concept of financial capital. I consider it is necessary not to confuse this category with of financialization, which has acquired a certificate of naturalization from the rise of neoliberalism. Although financial monopoly-financial capital is the hegemonic segment of the bourgeoisie in the major capitalist countries, their dominance does not imply, a fortiori, financialization of economic activity, since it depends of the conditions of the process reproduction of capital. The emergence of joint stock companies modified the formation of the average rate of profit. The "promoter profit" becomes one of the main forms of income of monopoly-financial capital. It is postulated that financial profit is a kind of "extraordinary surplus-value" which is appropriated by monopoly-financial capital by means of the monopolistic control it exerts on the issue and circulation of fictitious capital.

  19. Pricing offshore wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levitt, Andrew C.; Kempton, Willett; Smith, Aaron P.; Musial, Walt; Firestone, Jeremy

    2011-01-01

    Offshore wind offers a very large clean power resource, but electricity from the first US offshore wind contracts is costlier than current regional wholesale electricity prices. To better understand the factors that drive these costs, we develop a pro-forma cash flow model to calculate two results: the levelized cost of energy, and the breakeven price required for financial viability. We then determine input values based on our analysis of capital markets and of 35 operating and planned projects in Europe, China, and the United States. The model is run for a range of inputs appropriate to US policies, electricity markets, and capital markets to assess how changes in policy incentives, project inputs, and financial structure affect the breakeven price of offshore wind power. The model and documentation are made publicly available. - Highlights: → We calculate the Breakeven Price (BP) required to deploy offshore wind plants. → We determine values for cost drivers and review incentives structures in the US. → We develop 3 scenarios using today's technology but varying in industry experience. → BP differs widely by Cost Scenario; relative policy effectiveness varies by stage. → The low-range BP is below regional market values in the Northeast United States.

  20. A history of prices in Canada, 1840-1871: a new wholesale price index

    OpenAIRE

    Donald G. Paterson; Ronald A. Shearer

    2003-01-01

    We present a new monthly wholesale price index for Canada, 1840-71, comparing fluctuations in the Canadian macroeconomy with fluctuations in similar U.S. and British indexes. Canadian prices move through distinct phases: the 1840s rise in prices and the decline in the depression of 1848-49; the mid-century economic boom and the 1857 depression; U.S. Civil War inflation and apparent Canadian price insulation through a flexible exchange rate created by U.S. withdrawal from gold; and the non-inf...

  1. House Price, House Quality and Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vries, P.; Boelhouwer, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    The literature on housing markets suggest that periods of economic growth are characterised by a demand for better housing quality and increasing prices. The basic principles of the theory are that the short-run price fluctuations occur due to market imperfection, while over the long term, causality

  2. Gasoline Prices and Their Relationship to Drunk-Driving Crashes

    OpenAIRE

    Guangqing Chi; Xuan Zhou; Timothy McClure; Paul Gilbert; Arthur Cosby; Li Zhang; Angela Robertson; David Levinson

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between changing gasoline prices and drunk-driving crashes. Specifically, we examine the effects of gasoline prices on drunk-driving crashes in Mississippi by age, gender, and race from 2004Ð2008, a period experiencing great fluctuation in gasoline prices. An exploratory visualization by graphs shows that higher gasoline prices are generally associated with fewer drunk-driving crashes. Higher gasoline prices depress drunk- driving crashes among younger...

  3. Near-term oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    This PowerPoint presentation included 36 slides that described the state of oil prices and how to predict them. Prices are random, stochastic, chaotic, mean-reverting and driven by speculators, oil companies and OPEC. The many factors that enable price forecasting are economic growth, weather, industry behaviour, speculators, OPEC policy choices, Mexico/Russia production policy, non-OPEC supply and the interpretation of the above factors by OPEC, speculators, traders and the petroleum industry. Several graphs were included depicting such things as WTI price forecasts, differentials, oil market change in 2001, inventory levels, and WTI backwardation. The presentation provided some explanations for price uncertainties, price surges and collapses. U.S. GDP growth and the volatility of Iraq's production was also depicted. The author predicted that economic growth will occur and that oil demand will go up. Oil prices will fluctuate as the Middle East will be politically unstable and weather will be a major factor that will influence oil prices. The prices are likely to be more volatile than in the 1986 to 1995 period. 2 tabs., 22 figs

  4. Pricing hospital care: Global budgets and marginal pricing strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Jason M

    2015-08-01

    The Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) is adding financial incentives to increase the volume of surgeries provided by hospitals using a marginal pricing approach. The objective of this study is to calculate marginal costs of surgeries based on assumptions regarding hospitals' availability of labor and equipment. This study is based on observational clinical, administrative and financial data generated by hospitals. Hospital inpatient and outpatient discharge summaries from the province are linked with detailed activity-based costing information, stratified by assigned case mix categorizations. To reflect a range of operating constraints governing hospitals' ability to increase their volume of surgeries, a number of scenarios are proposed. Under these scenarios, estimated marginal costs are calculated and compared to prices being offered as incentives to hospitals. Existing data can be used to support alternative strategies for pricing hospital care. Prices for inpatient surgeries do not generate positive margins under a range of operating scenarios. Hip and knee surgeries generate surpluses for hospitals even under the most costly labor conditions and are expected to generate additional volume. In health systems that wish to fine-tune financial incentives, setting prices that create incentives for additional volume should reflect knowledge of hospitals' underlying cost structures. Possible implications of mis-pricing include no response to the incentives or uneven increases in supply. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. Nonlinear Analysis on Cross-Correlation of Financial Time Series by Continuum Percolation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun

    We establish a financial price process by continuum percolation system, in which we attribute price fluctuations to the investors’ attitudes towards the financial market, and consider the clusters in continuum percolation as the investors share the same investment opinion. We investigate the cross-correlations in two return time series, and analyze the multifractal behaviors in this relationship. Further, we study the corresponding behaviors for the real stock indexes of SSE and HSI as well as the liquid stocks pair of SPD and PAB by comparison. To quantify the multifractality in cross-correlation relationship, we employ multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis method to perform an empirical research for the simulation data and the real markets data.

  6. Pricing decision-making units

    OpenAIRE

    R F&aauml;re; S Grosskopf; D Margaritis

    2013-01-01

    In this note we extend the standard DEA paradigm to address the question of how one can price DMUs (decision-making units). To do this we use an adjoint transformation to the technology generated by these DMUs which links to traditional linear programming theory of the firm and is similar to pricing portfolios in financial markets. We also provide a numerical example illustrating the practicality of the proposed method.

  7. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rohde, Carsten; Rossing, Christian Plesner

    trade internally as the units have to decide what prices should be paid for such inter-unit transfers. One important challenge is to uncover the consequences that different transfer prices have on the willingness in the organizational units to coordinate activities and trade internally. At the same time...... the determination of transfer price will affect the size of the profit or loss in the organizational units and thus have an impact on the evaluation of managers‟ performance. In some instances the determination of transfer prices may lead to a disagreement between coordination of the organizational units...

  8. Financial sector development, economic volatility and shocks in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Muazu; Alagidede, Paul

    2017-10-01

    The role of financial sector development in economic volatility has been extensively studied albeit without informative results largely on the failure of extant studies to decompose volatility into its various components. By disaggregating volatility using the spectral approach, this study examines the effect of financial development on volatility components as well as channels through which finance affects volatility in 23 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980-2014. Our findings based on the newly developed panel cointegration estimation strategy reveal that while financial development affects business cycle volatility in a non-linear fashion, its effect on long run fluctuation is imaginary. More specifically, well developed financial sectors dampen volatility. Further findings show that while monetary shocks have large magnifying effect on volatility, their effect in the short run is minuscule. The reverse, however, holds for real shocks. The channels of manifestation shows that financial development dampens (magnifies) the effect of real shocks (monetary shocks) on the components of volatility with the dampening effects consistently larger only in the short run. Strengthening financial sector supervision and cross-border oversight may be very crucial in examining the right levels of finance and price stability necessary to falter economic fluctuations.

  9. Dynamic pricing for demand response considering market price uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Soares, Joao; Morais, Hugo

    2017-01-01

    Retail energy providers (REPs) can employ different strategies such as offering demand response (DR) programs, participating in bilateral contracts, and employing self-generation distributed generation (DG) units to avoid financial losses in the volatile electricity markets. In this paper......, the problem of setting dynamic retail sales price by a REP is addressed with a robust optimization technique. In the proposed model, the REP offers price-based DR programs while it faces uncertainties in the wholesale market price. The main contribution of this paper is using a robust optimization approach...

  10. Coupled effects of market impact and asymmetric sensitivity in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Li-Xin; Xu, Wen-Juan; Ren, Fei; Shi, Yong-Dong

    2013-05-01

    By incorporating market impact and asymmetric sensitivity into the evolutionary minority game, we study the coevolutionary dynamics of stock prices and investment strategies in financial markets. Both the stock price movement and the investors’ global behavior are found to be closely related to the phase region they fall into. Within the region where the market impact is small, investors’ asymmetric response to gains and losses leads to the occurrence of herd behavior, when all the investors are prone to behave similarly in an extreme way and large price fluctuations occur. A linear relation between the standard deviation of stock price changes and the mean value of strategies is found. With full market impact, the investors tend to self-segregate into opposing groups and the introduction of asymmetric sensitivity leads to the disappearance of dominant strategies. Compared with the situations in the stock market with little market impact, the stock price fluctuations are suppressed and an efficient market occurs. Theoretical analyses indicate that the mechanism of phase transition from clustering to self-segregation in the present model is similar to that in the majority-minority game and the occurrence and disappearance of efficient markets are related to the competition between the trend-following and the trend-aversion forces. The clustering of the strategies in the present model results from the majority-wins effect and the wealth-driven mechanism makes the market become predictable.

  11. Reserve growth during financial volatility in a technologically challenging world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, Timothy R.; Gautier, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Reserve growth (growth-to-known) is the addition of oil and gas quantities to reported proved or proved-plus-probable reserves in discovered fields. The amount of reserve growth fluctuates through time with prevailing economic and technological conditions. Most reserve additions are the result of investment in field operations and in development technology. These investments can be justified by higher prices of oil and gas, the desire to maintain cash flow, and by greater recovery efficiency in well established fields. The price/cost ratio affects decisions for field abandonment and (or) implementation of improved recovery methods. Although small- to medium-size fields might show higher percentages of reserve growth, a relatively few giant fields contribute most volumetric reserve growth, indicating that companies may prefer to invest in existing fields with low geologic and production risk and an established infrastructure in order to increase their price/cost relationship. Whereas many previous estimates of reserve growth were based on past trends of reported reserves, future reserve growth is expected to be greatly affected by financial volatility and fluctuating economic and technological conditions.

  12. Three Essays on Financial Economics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Park, Kay Sun

    -time interval, though academics consider market price would stay at equilibrium in the long-run, as reflecting fundamentals in the end. As “Efficiency of Financial Market” says; price of assets reveals all relevant information. The continuous-time random walk is successfully taken as close as tracking down...

  13. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, B.

    2009-01-01

    The 'AFTP' conference on 'petroleum prices' organized by Total last March, tries to explain the different aspects of the crisis we undergo for July 2007 and its consequential effects on the petroleum markets (supply, demand evolvements, impacts on reserves, prices, refining...). (O.M.)

  14. Bank Share Prices and Profitability

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Daugaard; Tom Valentine

    1993-01-01

    This paper considers the influence of economic conditions and financial markets on Australian bank share prices and profitability. It uses time series analysis to obtain an indication of the effectiveness of banks in managing their exposure to interest rates and exchange rates. The results give rise to some comments on the extent to which banks actively manage their exposure to financial and economic variables. The discussion of risk management activities necessarily raises the question of ho...

  15. The logic of the primary energy prices evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, P.N.

    1992-01-01

    This paper deals, very briefly, with the basis factors determining the prices levels of the primary energies and the logic of their evolution both in the short and in the long term. It first gives definitions: of the limits of mineral commodities prices fluctuations and of the long term equilibrium prices. Then, it tries to demonstrate three points: (1) Coal and nuclear electricity prices are driven in the long term only by their own production and environmental costs. Moreover, coal prices fluctuations are surrounded by factors which are basically independent from oil prices. (2) There is no such thing as one single equilibrium price for oil, but several ones, depending on political factors, and among them, on the degree of consensus between the 'Five' of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Irak, Koweit, The Emirates). (3) Natural gas prices are in an intermediate situation, but tend to get closer to the case of coal and nuclear prices. 4 figs

  16. Fluctuations in quantum chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casati, G.; Chirikov, B.V.

    1996-01-01

    Various fluctuations in quantum systems with discrete spectrum are discussed, including recent unpublished results. Open questions and unexplained peculiarities of quantum fluctuations are formulated [ru

  17. Single factor financial asset pricing models: an empirical test of the Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM and the Downside Capital Asset Pricing Model D-CAPM Modelos de precificação de ativos financeiros de fator único: um teste empírico dos modelos CAPM e D-CAPM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Dias Paiva

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed the Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM as well as the Downside Capital Asset Pricing Model D-CAPM and evaluated the latter as an efficient alternative asset pricing model. The returns of 40 companies on the São Paulo Stock Exchange BOVESPA were studied between December 1996 and August 2002. To test the models the study used as variables the Interbank Deposit Certificate CDI as a risk free asset and the Index of São Paulo Stock Exchange IBOVESPA as a proxy of the market portfolio. The D-CAPM was shown to be more useful in explaining the return of the stock market than the CAPM.O objetivo deste estudo é analisar o capital asset pricing model (CAPM e o downside capital asset pricing model (D-CAPM, bem como avaliar se este último modelo é uma eficiente alternativa de modelo de precificação de ativos. Os dados da pesquisa referem-se a 40 retornos de companhias listadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, de dezembro de 1996 a agosto de 2002. O artigo utilizou, para testar os modelos, as variáveis Certificado de Depósito Interbancário (CDI, como um ativo livre de risco, e o índice da Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo (Ibovespa, como proxy do portfólio de mercado. Conclui-se, então, que o D-CAPM possui uma maior capacidade explicativa dos retornos dos ativos se comparado ao CAPM.

  18. Oil price induced gas acquisition contracts. Immune to price changes; Oelpreisindizierte Gasbezugsvertraege. Immun gegen Preisaenderungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verhoeven, Meike [Soptim AG, Aachen (Germany)

    2012-10-15

    The gas price continues to be linked to the oil price. Gas utilities that must buy gas in these conditions and sell it at a fixed price incur considerable financial risk. Especially with long-term buying contracts, and especially for gas from Russia, producers insist on linking to the oil price. Gas utilities, on the other hand, had to stop to sell gas at a price linked to the oil price two years ago. Utilities attempt to protect themselves, e.g. via oil swaps. Professional portfolio management is necessary to cope with the risks and the highly complex processes involved.

  19. Oil price and the dollar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coudert, V.; Mignon, V.; Penot, A.

    2007-01-01

    Oil prices and the United States (US) dollar exchange rate are driving the evolution of the world economy. This paper investigated long-term relationships between oil prices and the US effective exchange rate. An empirical study was performed on oil prices and the dollar real effective exchange rate between 1974 to 2004. The impact of the dollar exchange rate was also explored, and the effects of oil prices on supply and demand were considered. A dynamic partial equilibrium framework study was evaluated in order to compare how other countries used revenues from oil exports in dollars. The study showed that both variables had similar evolutions when price fluctuations were low. Strong increases in the dollar were associated with lower oil prices. However, adjustment speeds of the dollar real effective exchange rate was slow. Co-integration and causality tests showed that oil prices influenced the exchange rate, and that the link between the 2 variables was transmitted through the country's net foreign asset position. It was concluded that higher oil prices improved US net foreign asset position in relation to other countries, and had a positive impact on dollar appreciation. 24 refs., 6 tabs., 1 fig

  20. Gas prices and price process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenewegen, G.G.

    1992-01-01

    On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab

  1. Financial analysis as a financial management instrument

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stehlíková Beáta

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available The financial market is one of the elements of the market-oriented economy. The financial analysis is a fundamental element of the financial controlling business. The purpose of this article is to inform briefly about horizontal and vertical financial statements analysis as the source of competitive advantage of the firm. The article is divided into two parts. First describes financial analysis and financial statements generally. Second, it presents a practical contribution of the horizontal and vertical financial statements analysis at the controlled businesses as financial management tools, which identify the financial position, market behaviour, correlations between the net profit and the prohibitively cost and operating profit, the financial activities profit, the income tax etc.Business, which the analysed firm operates in asks a provable claim on the high value of fixed assets. The capital composition of the firm is call to typify for the state-owned enterprise that was transformed to private joint-stock companies. Analysis is specially pleading for the needs considering the price of the borrowed capital in the capital structure rating. Fault factor ø value talks about needs for the cost regulation. Stair-step conception used for counting of the net profit in the accountant period indicates the financial profit, alternatively loss, as the distinguished pre-tax profit element. Picture about firm’s financial results can be completed with the information about the income tax value. Form of financial analyses presented in the article entablature the accents on the necessity to compare several accounting period and on the necessity of complex understanding of statements accounting slide “en bloc”.Financial analyse makes the decision makers possible to screen potential partners before the cooperation starts. On the other side, it makes a possibility to influence the production process, sales and financial management during the accounting

  2. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced, as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  3. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  4. Financial Wealth Distribution in Revised Financial Accounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Rybáček

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Financial statistics undergo dynamic evolution as apparent consequence of their rising importance. Structureof assets, source of fi nancing, price changes or net fi nancial position, all these indicators can detect oncomingfi nancial instability. Financial statistics as a logical extension of the national accounts provide such information.Th e aim of the following text is to present fi nancial statistics, relation between particular accounts, the impact of extraordinary revision carried out in 2011, and also to analyse current wealth distribution as described by fi nancial statistics.

  5. Oil prices and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Lescaroux, F.

    2006-01-01

    There is no limit to the sources of hydrocarbons (whether pumped out of the earth or produced in factories) for the next few decades, but there is and will be a need for increasingly complex and costly techniques as the usual sources of petroleum run out. Does this mean that prices will keep on rising? Probably, since environmental costs must be added onto direct costs. The mining of oil out of 'tar sands', for example, or the production of hydrocarbons by the chemical industry will have a significant impact owing to the emission of greenhouse gases. If prices do rise in the short or middle term, the cause will have to do more with the calendar of investments than with the availability of energy and its costs. In the long run however, price hikes are not all that certain. A few points for analyzing and predicting the macro-and micro-economic effects of fluctuating oil prices are discussed. (author)

  6. Determinants of agro-food price changes in Slovenia

    OpenAIRE

    Gričar, Sergej; Bojnec, Štefan

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the impacts of the current economic developments, the Euro adoption, and input prices on the consumer food prices. The focus of the analysis is on the consumer food price developments during the Slovenian adjustments towards the European Union membership, the Euro adoption by the followed increased in consumer prices, and the current economic and financial conditions. The empirical analysis on the determinants of the consumer food prices is based on the monthly statist...

  7. Strategic pricing possibilities of grocery retailers : an empirical study

    OpenAIRE

    Länsiluoto, Aapo; Back, Barbro; Vanharanta, Hannu

    2007-01-01

    The right pricing of products is one of the most important issues concerning the development of companies’ financial performance. Prices should be low enough to attract customers and at the same time high enough to cover all the emerged costs and expected profits. This research illustrates how self-organizing maps (SOM) can be used for pricing purposes. We show how changes in a company’s pricing policies would affect the company’s pricing position. The study illustrates clearly that companies...

  8. Freemium Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Runge, Julian; Wagner, Stefan; Claussen, Jörg

    Firms commonly run field experiments to improve their freemium pricing schemes. However, they often lack a framework for analysis that goes beyond directly measurable outcomes and focuses on longer term profit. We aim to fill this gap by structuring existing knowledge on freemium pricing...... into a stylized framework. We apply the proposed framework in the analysis of a field experiment that contrasts three variations of a freemium pricing scheme and comprises about 300,000 users of a software application. Our findings indicate that a reduction of free product features increases conversion as well...... as viral activity, but reduces usage – which is in line with the framework’s predictions. Additional back-of-the-envelope profit estimations suggest that managers were overly optimistic about positive externalities from usage and viral activity in their choice of pricing scheme, leading them to give too...

  9. The identification of price jumps

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hanousek, Jan; Kočenda, Evžen; Novotný, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 1 (2012), s. 53-77 ISSN 0929-9629 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP403/11/0020; GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : price jumps * non-parametric testing * financial econometrics Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  10. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurice, J.

    2001-01-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  11. Policy issues related to substitution of the US dollar in oil pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essayyad, Musa; Algahtani, Ibrahim

    2005-01-01

    This policy paper attempts to evaluate the viability of switching from the US dollar to the euro in international oil pricing. If materialised, the switch would not impact only OPEC nations but would also have ramifications for other oil exporting as well as importing nations. It would also have considerable effect on US economy and international financial system. This paper recommends that in deciding which currency to use in oil pricing, OPEC member countries should not allow their positive or negative political rapport with the US Government to distort their rational choice. Switching to euro or any other currency will not eliminate loss of revenue, as the newly adopted currency will not be immune either from the exchange rate gyrations. In fact, there is no guarantee that the euro, yen, sterling pound, or any other major currency will be immune from fluctuations. As a way out, this paper recommends three alternatives. (Author)

  12. China's optimal stockpiling policies in the context of new oil price trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, Nan; Yan, Zhijun; Zhou, Yi; Huang, Wenjun

    2017-01-01

    Optimizing the size of oil stockpiling plays a fundamental role in the process of making national strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) policies. There have been extensive studies on the operating strategies of SPR. However, previous literatures have paid more attention to a booming or stable international oil market, while few studies analyzed the impact of a long-term low oil price on SPR policy. As a supplement, this paper extends a static model to study China's optimal stockpiling policy under different oil price trends, and in response to different current oil prices. A new variable “FC”, which demonstrates the appreciation and depreciation of the reserved oil economic value, has been taken into account to assess the optimal size of SPR. In this paper, a more multi-perspective of view is provided to consider the policies of China's SPR, especially under the different trend of international oil price fluctuations. - Highlights: • We extended a static model to study optimal stockpiling size of China's SPR. • A new variable “FC” was applied to illustrate the shifting financial value of SPR. • We analyzed how current oil price and varied prediction influence optimal size. • Operational measures could be adjusted at the end of each decision-making period. • A more multifaceted of view might be provided for China's SPR policy-making.

  13. Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hikspoors, Samuel

    The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.

  14. Financial history and financial economics

    OpenAIRE

    Turner, John D.

    2014-01-01

    This essay looks at the bidirectional relationship between financial history and financial economics. It begins by giving a brief history of financial economics by outlining the main topics of interest to financial economists. It then documents and explains the increasing influence of financial economics upon financial history, and warns of the dangers of applying financial economics unthinkingly to the study of financial history. The essay proceeds to highlight the many insights that financi...

  15. The Impact of Oil Prices on Irish Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    O'Brien, Derry; Weymes, Laura

    2010-01-01

    Oil prices have been characterised by large fluctuations in recent years. Strong volatility in oil prices has important implications for the Irish economy as Ireland has a relatively poor fuel endowment and relies heavily on imported oil. Energy price increases have been one of the principal drivers behind HICP inflation rates in Ireland in recent years. This article highlights the distinctive features of the Irish energy market which render the impact of oil price changes on Irish inflation ...

  16. Marketplace pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    As discussed in this chapter, interest in marketplace pricing has been increasing in recent years, reflecting the societal trend toward substituting competition for regulation where appropriate. Competition is valuable because it encourages utilities to make efficient decisions with a minimum of regulatory intervention. It enhances efficiency through the incentive for innovation by the regulated companies and by increasing the likelihood they will come forward with proposals for better services, lower prices or both. Ultimately, consumers are beneficiaries. Marketplace pricing is emblematic of the view that the degree of regulation should reflect the degree of market power, that workably competitive markets should be allowed to operate with as little regulatory interference as possible. The Edison Electric Institute has made perhaps the most detailed proposal on marketplace pricing. It and others perceive numerous benefits from this method of pricing transmission services. Given the undeniable market power resulting from line ownership, FERC has emphasized the need to find a workably competitive market before approving such proposals. The ability to make this distinction without a full-blown antitrust review for every transaction is questionable, and FERC has yet to provide generic guidance. Finally, FERC's legal ability to depart from cost-based standards is questionable

  17. Essays on Asset Pricing with Financial Frictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klingler, Sven

    The first essay focuses on Credit default swap (CDS) premiums of safe sovereigns, that is, the insurance against the default of countries with a low credit risk, like Germany, Japan, or the United States. We motivate the essay by establishing the following two stylized facts. First, we document...... insurance against the default of safe sovereigns? Second, what drives safe-haven CDS premiums if not credit risk?...... between bond yield and risk-free rate, for safe sovereigns. This finding is in opposition to the no-arbitrage theory that CDS premiums and yield spreads should move in lockstep. Motivated by these stylized facts, we investigate the following two questions: First, what are the motives behind purchasing...

  18. TRANSFER PRICES IN ROMANIAN ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANDREEA-LAVINIA CAZACU (NEAMTU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Transfer prices are a delicate subject and of major importance in jurisdictions to which they belong, as they are often used as a means of exploiting tax legislation. In proceedings of tax inspection and financial control carried out by the tax authorities, a special place is occupied by the transactions between affiliated entities with Romanian companies. The purpose of the tax inspection is: combating tax evasion and tracking these transactions to be carried out at market prices. The article aims to present how transfer prices affect the value of an enterprise, but also the methodological aspects relating to tax inspection and the necessary documents in order to deciphering the mode of transfer pricing in Romania.

  19. Quantum Bohmian model for financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choustova, Olga Al.

    2007-01-01

    We apply methods of quantum mechanics for mathematical modeling of price dynamics at the financial market. The Hamiltonian formalism on the price/price-change phase space describes the classical-like evolution of prices. This classical dynamics of prices is determined by “hard” conditions (natural resources, industrial production, services and so on). These conditions are mathematically described by the classical financial potential V(q), where q=(q1,…,qn) is the vector of prices of various shares. But the information exchange and market psychology play important (and sometimes determining) role in price dynamics. We propose to describe such behavioral financial factors by using the pilot wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. The theory of financial behavioral waves takes into account the market psychology. The real trajectories of prices are determined (through the financial analogue of the second Newton law) by two financial potentials: classical-like V(q) (“hard” market conditions) and quantum-like U(q) (behavioral market conditions).

  20. Electricity pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijayatunga, P.D.C.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity pricing in most countries, especially in the developing world, has been determined by traditional accounting criteria where it raises revenue requirements to cover the operating costs and a return on past and future capital investments in possible power systems. The use of economic principles to improve the total economic efficiency in the electricity industry is discussed. Basic marginal cost theory, long run marginal costing (LRMC) cost categories and rating periods, marginal capacity costs, marginal energy costs, consumer costs, short run marginal costing (SRMC), marginal cost of fuel, marginal cost of network losses, market clearing price, value of unserved energy and network quality of supply cost are discussed

  1. Interrelated factors influence of current stock market on pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Наталія Петрівна Мацелюх

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Impacts on market prices of securities are generalized. It is found that in the process of price determination and its implementation exist a system of interrelated factors of influence, which are divided into objective and subjective; internal and external; traditional and specific. It is proved that the impact of factors associated with risk pricing in financial assets

  2. FINANCIAL CRISES AND TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MERT URAL

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the last three decades, in developed and developing counties the liberalization and openness efforts have been witnessed. However, financial liberalization attempts (both internal and external without having macroeconomic stability lead to financial crises in many developing countries. Macroeconomic instabilities create fragile financial markets paving the way for future economic crises. The Turkish Economy, completed the liberalization process with foreign trade liberalization in 1980 and by removing controls on capital accounts in 1989. However, since 1990’s economy got into ‘growth-instability-crisis’ vicious circle, because of the fluctuations in the financial structure. By employing a factor analysis (principal components analysis, this work, aims to obtain the factors that effect crises in Turkey.

  3. First Significant Digits and the Credit Derivative Market During the Financial Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Hofmarcher

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The Credit Default Swap (CDS market has both been lauded for its ability to stabilize the financial system through credit risk transfers and been the source of regulatory concern due to its size and lack of transparency. As a decentralized over-the-counter market, detailed information about pricing mechanisms is rather scarce. To investigate reported CDS prices (spreads more closely, we make use of empirical First Significant Digit (FSD distributions and analyze daily CDS prices for European and US entities during the financial crisis starting in 2007. We find that on a time-aggregated level, the European and US markets obey empirical FSD distributions similar to the theoretical ones. Surprising differences are observed in the development of the FSD distributions between the US and European markets. Whereas the FSD distribution of the US derivative market behaves nearly constantly during the last financial crisis, we find huge fluctuations in the FSD distribution of the European market. One reason for these differences might be the possibility of strategic default for US companies due to Chapter 11 and avoided contagion effects.

  4. PRICE ON THE ORGANIC FOOD MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GEORGE ATANASOAIE

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present prices on PAE market (PAE- organic foods market. Prices are analyzed in terms of importance and the main factors that contribute to their establishment (quality of products, distribution channels, certification and eco-labeling system, customer segments and market development stage. This paper is based on the investigation of secondary sources, of specialized literature related to PAE consumers. The paper shows that are used three strategic options of prices: prices with high rigidity located in a low or high level and fluctuating prices, characterized by variations on short periods of time. Price is a very important barrier to market development but this importance can be mitigated through appropriate communication policies with the market, which are essential especially for markets in early stages of development.

  5. THE PRICE ON THE ORGANIC PRODUCT MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ATĂNĂSOAIE GEORGE SEBASTIAN

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present prices on PAE market (PAE- organic foods market. Prices areanalyzed in terms of importance and the main factors that contribute to their establishment (quality of products,distribution channels, certification and eco-labeling system, customer segments and market development stage.The paper shows that are used three strategic options of prices: prices with high rigidity located in a low or highlevel and fluctuating prices, characterized by variations on short periods of time. Price is a very importantbarrier to market development but this importance can be mitigated through appropriate communicationpolicies with the market, which are essential especially for markets in early stages of development

  6. Price discovery in European natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, Emma; Swieringa, John

    2013-01-01

    We provide the first high-frequency investigation of price discovery within the physical and financial layers of Europe's natural gas markets. Testing not only looks at short-term return dynamics, but also considers each security's contribution to price equilibrium in the longer-term. Results show that UK natural gas futures traded on the Intercontinental Exchange display greater price discovery than physical trading at various hubs throughout Europe. - Highlights: • We use intraday data to gauge price discovery in European natural gas markets. • We explore short and long-term dynamics in physical and financial market layers. • Results show ICE's UK natural gas futures are the main venue for price discovery

  7. Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Peng

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indicate that the common factor accounts for a significant portion of the fluctuations of China's commodity sectors, providing evidence of the strong commodity sector comovements in China. We further use a VAR model to link the common movements across China's commodity sectors to the underlying determinants, including global oil price shocks and domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that the global oil price shocks have strong effects on the common movements across commodity sectors in China in addition to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations at long horizons. However, at short horizons, the common movements across commodity sectors in China respond more strongly to the global oil shocks than to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. - Highlights: • We examine the comovements of commodity prices at the industry level in China. • The common factor accounts for a significant portion of commodity sector fluctuations. • We investigate the joint impacts of global oil price shocks and domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements. • The global oil price shocks have persistent and strong effects on the comovements. • The impacts of domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements differ at short and long horizons.

  8. Quantifying meta-correlations in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenett, Dror Y.; Preis, Tobias; Gur-Gershgoren, Gitit; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2012-08-01

    Financial markets are modular multi-level systems, in which the relationships between the individual components are not constant in time. Sudden changes in these relationships significantly affect the stability of the entire system, and vice versa. Our analysis is based on historical daily closing prices of the 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from March 15th, 1939 until December 31st, 2010. We quantify the correlation among these components by determining Pearson correlation coefficients, to investigate whether mean correlation of the entire portfolio can be used as a precursor for changes in the index return. To this end, we quantify the meta-correlation - the correlation of mean correlation and index return. We find that changes in index returns are significantly correlated with changes in mean correlation. Furthermore, we study the relationship between the index return and correlation volatility - the standard deviation of correlations for a given time interval. This parameter provides further evidence of the effect of the index on market correlations and their fluctuations. Our empirical findings provide new information and quantification of the index leverage effect, and have implications to risk management, portfolio optimization, and to the increased stability of financial markets.

  9. Stochastic differential equation (SDE) model of opening gold share price of bursa saham malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, F. N.; Rahman, H. A.; Bahar, A.

    2017-09-01

    Black and Scholes option pricing model is one of the most recognized stochastic differential equation model in mathematical finance. Two parameter estimation methods have been utilized for the Geometric Brownian model (GBM); historical and discrete method. The historical method is a statistical method which uses the property of independence and normality logarithmic return, giving out the simplest parameter estimation. Meanwhile, discrete method considers the function of density of transition from the process of diffusion normal log which has been derived from maximum likelihood method. These two methods are used to find the parameter estimates samples of Malaysians Gold Share Price data such as: Financial Times and Stock Exchange (FTSE) Bursa Malaysia Emas, and Financial Times and Stock Exchange (FTSE) Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah. Modelling of gold share price is essential since fluctuation of gold affects worldwide economy nowadays, including Malaysia. It is found that discrete method gives the best parameter estimates than historical method due to the smallest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value.

  10. An analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations for a small open oil-based economy: The case of Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Abdulkarim, Bander B.

    Model. The empirical models then are applied to sets of data from 1980 to 2002 for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela and Norway. The rationale of including other oil-exporting countries is to distinguish whether the shocks are country-specific, regional-specific, or global. Two sets of shocks are considered: international shocks and domestic shocks. Three types of international shocks are chosen: commodity-price (oil price) shock, international financial (interest rate) shock, and international real (output) shock. In addition, five domestic shocks which are non-oil output shock, oil production shock, price level shock, monetary shock, and exchange rate shock. The findings reached in the study demonstrate that the international shocks are responsible for a high proportion of fluctuations in the economic activity in Saudi Arabia. Most importantly, the international financial shocks represented by the US interest rate and oil price shocks are the major sources of fluctuations in the Saudi Arabian economy. Domestically, the economy is mostly affected by the oil production and the non-oil output shocks for Saudi Arabia. These results emphasize that the Saudi Arabia's role in the international oil market and its fixed exchange rate regime have significant implications on the domestic economy. Thus, special considerations should be placed on designing the appropriate policies to lessen the dependency on the oil sector and strengthen the role of private sector to diversify the economic base, and provide an independent sound monetary policy to steer the economy from the fluctuations in the global economy. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

  11. Banks, markets, and financial stability

    OpenAIRE

    Eder, Armin; Fecht, Falko; Pausch, Thilo

    2014-01-01

    In a theoretical model of the Diamond-Dybvig style, in which deposit-taking banks and financial markets coexist, bank behavior is analyzed taking into account a positive ex-ante probability of a future financial crisis. We focus on the role of the interaction of market liquidity and banks' funding liquidity in the propagation of shocks in the financial system. Our findings suggest that in particular bank-dominated financial systems are prone to contagious bank runs due to asset price deterior...

  12. Factors influencing the adoption of mobile financial services in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    the basis for product or service development, pricing, marketing and policy formulation. In this study we ... Key words: Mobile financial services, Adoption, Tanzania ...... Financial Inclusion Strategies Referenca Framework. Washington DC: ...

  13. Fluctuations and Photons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Sourendu

    2007-01-01

    In this talk I discuss measures of fluctuations, especially those leading to the proof that the quark gluon plasma indeed contains quarks. I discuss the quark mass dependence of the critical end point of QCD. Then I discuss probes of the QCD critical point. Non-gaussian behaviour of event-to-event fluctuations of conserved quantum numbers is one such probe. Another is due to the coupling of fluctuations in baryon number and electrical charge, giving rise to long range random fluctuations of local charge density which relax slowly. These fluctuations can scatter photons, giving rise to critical opalescence

  14. Fluctuations and Photons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Sourendu

    2007-02-01

    In this talk I discuss measures of fluctuations, especially those leading to the proof that the quark gluon plasma indeed contains quarks. I discuss the quark mass dependence of the critical end point of QCD. Then I discuss probes of the QCD critical point. Non-gaussian behaviour of event-to-event fluctuations of conserved quantum numbers is one such probe. Another is due to the coupling of fluctuations in baryon number and electrical charge, giving rise to long range random fluctuations of local charge density which relax slowly. These fluctuations can scatter photons, giving rise to critical opalescence.

  15. Fluctuations and Photons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Sourendu [Department of Theoretical Physics, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Homi Bhabha Road, Mumbai 400005 (India)

    2007-02-15

    In this talk I discuss measures of fluctuations, especially those leading to the proof that the quark gluon plasma indeed contains quarks. I discuss the quark mass dependence of the critical end point of QCD. Then I discuss probes of the QCD critical point. Non-gaussian behaviour of event-to-event fluctuations of conserved quantum numbers is one such probe. Another is due to the coupling of fluctuations in baryon number and electrical charge, giving rise to long range random fluctuations of local charge density which relax slowly. These fluctuations can scatter photons, giving rise to critical opalescence.

  16. Fire Sales and House Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Meisner Nielsen, Kasper

    We exploit a natural experiment in Denmark to investigate when forced sales lead to fire sale discounts. Forced sales result from sudden deaths of house owners in an institutional environment in which beneficiaries are forced to settle the estate, and hence sell the house, within 12 months. We...... and the urgency of the sale also affect the average discount: Discounts are larger when house prices contract, in thin markets where demand is lower, and when the sale is more likely to be a fire sale because of financial or liquidity constraints. Late fire sales are more likely when the house price...... forced sales lead to fire sale discounts....

  17. Regulation of electricity prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihok, P.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper author deals with the regulation of electricity prices in the Slovak Republic. Author contests the social policy of the government through doped prices of electricity. Two thirds of electricity is generated in nuclear power plants in Slovakia. Hence, it is necessary to focus on the solution of problem of nuclear waste. In 2004 Ministry of Economy stated, that the deficit in nuclear fund, from which the country have to fully cover the costs of liquidation and final disposal of nuclear waste, is estimated in the amount of around 89 billion Slovak crowns (≅ 3.7 billion $). From it, so called historical deficit, which originated because of late foundation of fund, represents officially 15 billion Slovak crowns (≅ 0.62 billion $). In Slovakia exists the real risk, that by maintenance of present state by creation and draw of the fund, it will be possible to ensure only 39 per cent of financial sources necessary for full financial handling of the back part of nuclear energetic. Even though the Ministry of Economy in connection with privatisation of Slovenske elektrarne designed to decrease the transfers of operators of nuclear power plants into nuclear fund. In 2006 the Parliament decreased by the law the level of gains of the fund from sale of nuclear electricity (the second from two components of the gains of the fund) from 6.8 to 5.95 per cent from annual revenues. So the tax of forced reduction of the price of nuclear electricity will be represented by loading of the further generations

  18. FTR-option formulation and pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parmeshwaran, Vijay; Muthuraman, Kumar

    2009-01-01

    Recent changes in electricity markets have advocated the use of Local Marginal Prices (LMP) for congestion management and pricing. From the perspective of market participants, the LMPs pose a risk since they are not known before a transaction on the grid is made. Financial transmission rights (FTR) are instruments that help market participants hedge this risk and are issuable in two flavors - obligations and options. While pricing obligations are much easier, pricing FTR options pose a significant challenge. In this paper we develop a computational method for pricing FTR options. We also discuss the problem of designing financial instrument sets that assure revenue adequacy for the issuer. We point out the difficulty in assuring revenue adequacy when FTR options are present and propose a scheme for overcoming the difficulty. The proposed pricing method can be used to compute prices of options and obligations in the primary market or as a reliable pricing tool to compute option prices in the secondary market. Finally using a test network we present and discuss numerical results. (author)

  19. Traditional Market Accounting: Management or Financial Accounting?

    OpenAIRE

    Wiyarni, Wiyarni

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore the area of accounting in traditional market. There are two areas of accounting: management and financial accounting. Some of traditional market traders have prepared financial notes, whereas some of them do not. Their financial notes usually consist of receivables, payables, customer orders, inventories, sales and cost price, and salary expenses. The purpose of these financial notes is usually for decision making. It is very rare for the traditional ma...

  20. FEWS NET Price Volatility Data 2002-2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — This dataset from the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) documents ten years, from 2002 to 2012, of cereal price fluctuations across twenty-five African...

  1. Paying the price: a cross-sectional survey of Australian socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers' responses to hypothetical cigarette price rises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaumier, Ashleigh; Bonevski, Billie; Paul, Christine; D'Este, Catherine; Doran, Christopher; Siahpush, Mohammad

    2014-03-01

    Increases in tobacco taxation can lead to reductions in tobacco consumption and prevalence of use across social groups. However, use of price-minimisation strategies to manage current and future tobacco use and the role of financial stress is less understood. This study aimed to measure the effect of cigarette price increases on price-minimisation strategy endorsement and financial stress among socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers. Community service organisation welfare recipients in NSW, Australia completed a touchscreen survey. Smoking history, financial stress, highest price to quit and responses to hypothetical cigarette price increases were assessed. Participants were 354 smokers (response rate = 79%). Most participants received income from a government pension (95%), earned price rises, significantly more participants endorsed trying to quit in response to the larger increase scenario (P price-minimisation strategies (e.g. switching to cheaper brands/products) were endorsed, but remained constant across hypothetical scenarios; level of financial stress appeared to have little influence. Smokers indicating they would not change their smoking in response to price rises had higher levels of nicotine dependence. Socially disadvantaged smokers endorsed numerous price-minimising strategies to maintain smoking at hypothetically increased costs. Larger cigarette price rises motivated more smokers to consider quitting, while price-resistant smokers appeared to have a more entrenched smoker status. © 2013 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  2. Forecasting Construction Tender Price Index in Ghana using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Kissi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Prices of construction resources keep on fluctuating due to unstable economic situations that have been experienced over the years. Clients knowledge of their financial commitments toward their intended project remains the basis for their final decision. The use of construction tender price index provides a realistic estimate at the early stage of the project. Tender price index (TPI is influenced by various economic factors, hence there are several statistical techniques that have been employed in forecasting. Some of these include regression, time series, vector error correction among others. However, in recent times the integrated modelling approach is gaining popularity due to its ability to give powerful predictive accuracy. Thus, in line with this assumption, the aim of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX in modelling TPI. The results showed that ARIMAX model has a better predictive ability than the use of the single approach. The study further confirms the earlier position of previous research of the need to use the integrated model technique in forecasting TPI. This model will assist practitioners to forecast the future values of tender price index. Although the study focuses on the Ghanaian economy, the findings can be broadly applicable to other developing countries which share similar economic characteristics.

  3. Determining Optimal Crude Oil Price Benchmark in Nigeria: An Empirical Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saibu Olufemi Muibi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper contributes to on-going empirical search for an appropriate crude oil price benchmark that ensures greater financial stability and efficient fiscal management in Nigeria. It adopted the seasonally adjusted ARIMA forecasting models using monthly data series from 2000m01 to 2012m12 to predict future movement in Nigeria crude oil prices. The paper derived a more robust and dynamic framework that accommodates fluctuation in crude oil price and also in government spending. The result shows that if the incessant withdrawal from the ECA fund and the increasing debt profile of government in recent times are factored into the benchmark, the real crude oil numerical fiscal rule is (US$82.3 for 2013 which is higher than the official benchmark of $75 used for 2013 and 2014 budget proposal. The paper argues that the current long run price rule based on 5-10 year moving average approach adopted by government is rigid and inflexible as a rule for managing Nigerian oil funds. The unrealistic assumption of the extant benchmark accounted for excessive depletion and lack of accountability of the excess crude oil account. The paper concludes that except the federal government can curtail its spending profligacy and adopts a more stringent fiscal discipline rules, the current benchmark is unrealistic and unsuitable for fiscal management of oil revenue in the context of Nigerian economic spending profile.

  4. What is behind the increase in oil prices? Analyzing oil consumption and supply relationship with oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallo, Andres; Mason, Paul; Shapiro, Steve; Fabritius, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The continuing increases in oil prices have renewed the argument over the real culprits behind these movements. The growth in demand for oil in international markets, especially from the United States and China, is often identified as the main source of consumption pressure on prices, and thus the upward trend in oil prices. This paper uses unit root tests with two endogenous breaks to analyze the characteristics of oil prices, production, and consumption for several countries. By taking into account structural breaks, we find that many countries' oil consumption and oil prices are stationary, while other countries' are not. We also perform causality tests to determine the direction of any possible relationship between oil price and oil consumption and production. Our statistical analysis reveals that production variables cause oil prices, while oil prices tend to cause consumption. As a result, we claim that the blame for the recent fluctuations in oil prices is more appropriately associated with supply factors, not consumption influences. (author)

  5. Customer perspectives on district heating price models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerstin Sernhed

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In Sweden there has been a move towards more cost reflective price models for district heating in order to reduce economic risks that comes with variable heat demand and high shares of fixed assets. The keywords in the new price models are higher shares of fixed cost, seasonal energy prices and charging for capacity. Also components that are meant to serve as incentives to affect behaviour are introduced, for example peak load components and flow components. In this study customer responses to these more complex price models have been investigated through focus group interviews and through interviews with companies that have changed their price models. The results show that several important customer requirements are suffering with the new price models. The most important ones are when energy savings do not provide financial savings, when costs are hard to predict and are perceived to be out of control.

  6. News impact for Turkish food prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meltem Chadwick

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Asymmetric volatility is a widely encountered concept particularly in financial series. It refers to the case that “bad news” generates more volatility than “good news” of equal magnitude. In an inflationary environment “bad news” is disclosed as increasing inflation that is expected to generate higher volatility. The present article examines whether unexpected price changes affect the volatility of prices asymmetrically for 90 retail food items of the Turkish consumer price index. These 90 food items have a weight of approximately 20 percent in headline consumer price index (CPI. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH model to extract asymmetric volatility, using monthly data between January 2003 and January 2017. Our results reveal that volatility of food prices respond asymmetrically to unexpected price shocks for 62 percent of the retail food items.

  7. Electricity: French industrialists tied up by prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jemain, A.

    2004-01-01

    With more than 50% of increase in 3 years, the electricity prices reach summits in France. The industrialists, initially enthusiastic over the promises of the liberalization of European energy markets, are today particularly disappointed and denounce an irrational logic. The reasons of these inflationary prices are explained in this article: alignment of electricity prices with respect to the prices of the less efficient producers (oil and gas power plants), lack of peak production means which induces prices volatility, a commodity market model unsuitable to electricity specificities, lack of transparency in the establishment of reference prices, no margins for negotiation, and will of Electricite de France (EdF) to restore its financial status. (J.S.)

  8. Pricing medicines: theory and practice, challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregson, Nigel; Sparrowhawk, Keiron; Mauskopf, Josephine; Paul, John

    2005-02-01

    The pricing of medicines has become one of the most hotly debated topics of recent times, with the pharmaceutical industry seemingly being attacked from all quarters. From a company perspective, determining the price for each new product is more crucial than ever, given the present dearth of new drug introductions. But how are pricing strategies developed in practice? What is value-based pricing and how are financial models of return on investment constructed? What are the challenges faced in setting the price for a particular product, and how will scientific and environmental trends provide future pricing challenges or opportunities?

  9. Financial top 100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaremko, G.

    1999-01-01

    The way in which the oil industry has rebounded from a difficult financial year was discussed. In 1998, oil prices fell by about 30 per cent from 1997 prices to average US$14.40. In the second quarter of 1999, the rebounding international markets raised oil prices by about one-third to an average US$17.60. Recent surveys have shown that the oil and gas industry will experience major changes in the decade ahead. It was forecasted that in 25 years, total Canadian oil production could near three million barrels per day, an increase of 36 per cent from today's 2.2 million. However, as conventional reserves are running out, production of conventional oil is expected to be diminished by about two-thirds. Naturally-occurring, light refinery-ready oil is forecasted to come mostly from the east coast, whereas western output will be dominated by oil sands. Natural gas will continue to be a huge growth opportunity in the west because of new pipeline expansions and exports to the United States. This paper presented a list of Canada's financial top 100 oil and gas companies which emerged with the best endurance. The list included statistics from 1997 and 1998 for gross revenues, total assets, net income, cash/operating activities, capital expenditures, closing share prices (with percentage change), and market capitalization. 1 fig., 1 tab

  10. Predicting Fluctuations in Cryptocurrency Transactions Based on User Comments and Replies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young Bin; Kim, Jun Gi; Kim, Wook; Im, Jae Ho; Kim, Tae Hyeong; Kang, Shin Jin; Kim, Chang Hun

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a method to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies, which are increasingly used for online transactions worldwide. Little research has been conducted on predicting fluctuations in the price and number of transactions of a variety of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the few methods proposed to predict fluctuation in currency prices are inefficient because they fail to take into account the differences in attributes between real currencies and cryptocurrencies. This paper analyzes user comments in online cryptocurrency communities to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies and the number of transactions. By focusing on three cryptocurrencies, each with a large market size and user base, this paper attempts to predict such fluctuations by using a simple and efficient method.

  11. The Geography of Financial Literacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Bumcrot

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores how well equipped today’s households are to make complex financial decisions in the face of often high-cost and high-risk financial instruments. Specifically we focus on financial literacy. Most importantly, we describe the geography of financial literacy, i.e., how financial literacy is distributed across the fifty US states. We describe the correlation of financial literacy and some important aggregate variables, such as state-level poverty rates. Finally, we examine the extent to which differences in financial literacy can be explained by states’ demographic and economic characteristics. To assess financial literacy, five questions were added to the 2009 National Financial Capability Study, covering fundamental concepts of economics and finance encountered in everyday life: simple calculations about interest rates and inflation, the workings of risk diversification, the relationship between bond prices and interest rates, and the relationship between interest payments and maturity in mortgages. We constructed an index of financial literacy based on the number of correct answers provided by each respondent to the five financial literacy questions. The financial literacy index reveals wide variation in financial literacy across states. Much of the variation is attributable to differences in the demographic makeup of the states; however, a handful of states have either higher or lower levels of financial literacy than is explained by demographics alone. Also, there is a significant correlation between the financial literacy of a state and that state’s poverty level. The findings indicate directions for policy makers and practitioners interested in targeting areas where financial literacy is low.

  12. Gas prices: realities and probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broadfoot, M.

    2000-01-01

    An assessment of price trends suggests continuing rise in 2001, with some easing of upward price movement in 2002 and 2003. Storage levels as of Nov. 1, 2000 are expected to be at 2.77 Tcf, but if the winter of 2000/2001 proves to be more severe than usual, inventory levels could sink as low as 500 Bcf by April 1, 2001. With increasing demand for natural gas for non-utility electric power generation the major challenge will be to achieve significant supply growth, which means increased developmental drilling and inventory draw-downs, as well as more exploratory drilling in deepwater and frontier regions. Absence of a significant supply response by next summer will affect both growth in demand and in price levels, and the increased demand for electric generation in the summer will create a flatter consumption profile, erasing the traditional summer/winter spread in consumption, further intensifying price volatility. Managing price fluctuations is the second biggest challenge (after potential supply problems) facing the industry

  13. Crude prices - is OPEC relevant?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verleger, P.K. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Oil-exporting nations are in deep trouble. A global recession is suppressing consumption growth and frustrating exporter attempts to boost prices. Future prospects for oil exporters appear even bleaker. New production from several satellites of the former Soviet Union (FSU) will reach the market within a few years, limiting the increase in OPEC scales, and the FSU's incremental output will be augmented by much larger exports from Iraq. An oil price surge resulting from turmoil in Nigeria will, ironically, only serve to emphasize OPEC's loss of influence. When a cartel-like organization breaks down, the result is usually lower and more volatile prices, and so political or physical production disruptions have a greater impact on volumes supplied. In the future, these disruptions will occur more often because of the worsening financial situation in exporting countries. (author)

  14. In the Right Ballpark? Assessing the Accuracy of Net Price Calculators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, Aaron M.; Page, Lindsay C.; Seldin, Abigail

    2016-01-01

    Large differences often exist between a college's sticker price and net price after accounting for financial aid. Net price calculators (NPCs) were designed to help students more accurately estimate their actual costs to attend a given college. This study assesses the accuracy of information provided by net price calculators. Specifically, we…

  15. Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan Schulmeister

    1988-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study the reasons behind the wide fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, for the most part unexplained by the prevailing exchange rate theories, are explored. To do so, the author investigates the exchange rate between the two most traded currencies, the dollar and the deutschemark, from 1973 to 1988. In the first part, the pattern of the daily exchange rate movements is examined to show that a sequence of upward and downward trends interrupted by non-directional movements is typical of exchange rate dynamics in the short run. Moreover, this pattern is systemically exploited through currency speculation, particularly through the use of “technical analysis”. In the second part, the author focuses on the medium-term, arguing that fluctuations can be explained as the result of interacting disequilibria in the goods and asset markets. Although currency speculation has been systemically profitable for most currencies, it should be considered to be destabilizing since the sequence of price runs caused large and persistent deviations of exchange rates from their equilibrium values (purchasing power parity.

  16. An Analysis of the Influence of Fundamental Values' Estimation Accuracy on Financial Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Takahashi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This research analyzed the influence of the differences in the forecast accuracy of fundamental values on the financial market. As a result of intensive experiments in the market, we made the following interesting findings: (1 improvements in forecast accuracy of fundamentalists can contribute to an increase in the number of fundamentalists; (2 certain situations might occur, according to the level of forecast accuracy of fundamentalists, in which fundamentalists and passive management coexist, or in which fundamentalists die out of the market, and furthermore; (3 where a variety of investors exist in the market, improvements in the forecast accuracy could increase the number of fundamentalists more than the number of investors that employ passive investment strategy. These results contribute to clarifying the mechanism of price fluctuations in financial markets and also indicate one of the factors for the low ratio of passive investors in asset management business.

  17. Entropy and Recurrence Measures of a Financial Dynamic System by an Interacting Voter System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Li Niu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available A financial time series agent-based model is reproduced and investigated by the statistical physics system, the finite-range interacting voter system. The voter system originally describes the collective behavior of voters who constantly update their positions on a particular topic, which is a continuous-time Markov process. In the proposed model, the fluctuations of stock price changes are attributed to the market information interaction amongst the traders and certain similarities of investors’ behaviors. Further, the complexity of return series of the financial model is studied in comparison with two real stock indexes, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index, by composite multiscale entropy analysis and recurrence analysis. The empirical research shows that the simulation data for the proposed model could grasp some natural features of actual markets to some extent.

  18. Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates different financial price and time series models, such as mean reversion, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), integrated ARMA (ARIMA) and general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process, usually applied for electricity price simulations. However, as these models are developed to describe the stochastic behaviour of electricity prices, they are extended by a separate data treatment for the deterministic components (trend, daily, weekly and annual cycles) of electricity spot prices. Furthermore price jumps are considered and implemented within a regime-switching model. Since 2008 market design allows for negative prices at the European Energy Exchange, which also occurred for several hours in the last years. Up to now, only a few financial and time series approaches exist, which are able to capture negative prices. This paper presents a new approach incorporating negative prices. The evaluation of the different approaches presented points out that the mean reversion and the ARMA models deliver the lowest mean root square error between simulated and historical electricity spot prices gained from the European Energy Exchange. These models posses also lower mean average errors than GARCH models. Hence, they are more suitable to simulate well-fitting price paths. Furthermore it is shown that the daily structure of historical price curves is better captured applying ARMA or ARIMA processes instead of mean-reversion or GARCH models. Another important outcome of the paper is that the regime-switching approach and the consideration of negative prices via the new proposed approach lead to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation. - Highlights: ► Considering negative prices improves the results of time-series and financial models for electricity prices. ► Regime-switching approach captures the jumps and base prices quite well. ► Removing and separate modelling of deterministic annual, weekly and daily

  19. Hedging electricity price volatility using nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mari, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Nuclear power is an important asset to reduce the volatility of electricity prices. • Unpredictability of fossil fuels and carbon prices makes power prices very volatile. • The dynamics of fossil fuels and carbon prices is described by Brownian motions. • LCOE values, volatilities and correlations are obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. • Optimal portfolios of generating technologies are get using a mean–variance approach. - Abstract: The analysis presented in this paper aims to put in some evidence the role of nuclear power as hedging asset against the volatility of electricity prices. The unpredictability of natural gas and coal market prices as well as the uncertainty in environmental policies may affect power generating costs, thus enhancing volatility in electricity market prices. The nuclear option, allowing to generate electricity without carbon emissions, offers the possibility to reduce the volatility of electricity prices through optimal diversification of power generating technologies. This paper provides a methodological scheme to plan well diversified “portfolios” of generating capacity that minimize the electricity price risk induced by random movements of fossil fuels market prices and by unpredictable fluctuations of carbon credits prices. The analysis is developed within a stochastic environment in which the dynamics of fuel prices as well as the dynamics of carbon credits prices is assumed to evolve in time according to well defined Brownian processes. Starting from market data and using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate generating cost values, the hedging argument is developed by selecting optimal portfolio of power generating technologies using a mean–variance approach

  20. Value-based differential pricing: efficient prices for drugs in a global context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danzon, Patricia; Towse, Adrian; Mestre-Ferrandiz, Jorge

    2015-03-01

    This paper analyzes pharmaceutical pricing between and within countries to achieve second-best static and dynamic efficiency. We distinguish countries with and without universal insurance, because insurance undermines patients' price sensitivity, potentially leading to prices above second-best efficient levels. In countries with universal insurance, if each payer unilaterally sets an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) threshold based on its citizens' willingness-to-pay for health; manufacturers price to that ICER threshold; and payers limit reimbursement to patients for whom a drug is cost-effective at that price and ICER, then the resulting price levels and use within each country and price differentials across countries are roughly consistent with second-best static and dynamic efficiency. These value-based prices are expected to differ cross-nationally with per capita income and be broadly consistent with Ramsey optimal prices. Countries without comprehensive insurance avoid its distorting effects on prices but also lack financial protection and affordability for the poor. Improving pricing efficiency in these self-pay countries includes improving regulation and consumer information about product quality and enabling firms to price discriminate within and between countries. © 2013 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Rising natural gas and electricity prices in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roggen, M.

    2004-01-01

    In a free market, the price for electricity rises rather than falls. And as for the gas price, the consumer will be facing strong fluctuations. For that matter, it is only slightly connected with the liberalization of the market. An employee of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants has delved deeply into the matter, down to the euro [nl

  2. Derivative markets, speculation and oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Lasserre, F.; Pierru, A.

    2010-01-01

    Recent movements in oil prices have been ascribed by a number of analysts and political leaders not to market fundamentals but to the speculative positions taken by financial investors in derivatives markets. Various economists including Nobel Prize Paul Krugman believe however that the constitution of stocks is a necessary element for speculation, a feature that was not very evident during the sudden price increase in 2008; but these points of view are not entirely incompatible. Various explanations can be put forward, among which the most important is demand inertia. On the very short run, demand price elasticity is significantly lower than that usually calculated for the short term, which can significantly reduce the impact - on stocks - of a temporary price increase provoked by financial investors' behavior. (authors)

  3. Financialization of commodities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Falkowski

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The basic theory of price formation tells us how the price of a particular asset will change based on the adjustment to its supply and demand. However, values of assets are also determined by other business fundamentals, company’s and world events, human psychology, and investors’ belief about the possible future profit. In recent history that lead to an increase of individual and institutional investors’ interest in allocating their resources in commodity markets. With a large inflow of capital commodities’ prices started to rise making them attractive components to effective investment portfolios. The presented paper addresses the issue of so called commodities ‘financialization’ process. It looks at the main factors standing behind commodities’ price movements and to what extent financial market participants contributed to commodities price volatility in recent years. Based on the data examined it distinguishes the involvement of both commercial and non-commercial traders in short and long term periods of time. As well as explaining the impact of growing investors’ interest in commodity markets it defines other market forces - like currency appreciations and emerging markets - as being part of increased volatility in raw and soft commodity markets. Along with market examination the paper focuses on possible future outcomes in attempts to regulate commodities derivatives markets and potential effects of those efforts.

  4. Self-Organized Percolation and Critical Sales Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisbuch, Gérard; Solomon, Sorin

    There is a discrepancy between the standard view of equilibrium through price adjustment in economics and the observation of large fluctuations in stock markets. We study here a simple model where agents decisions not only depend upon their individual preferences but also upon information obtained from their neighbors in a social network. The model shows that information diffusion coupled to the adjustment process drives the system to criticality with large fluctuations rather than converging smoothly to equilibrium.

  5. Speculative phenomena impact on oil prices formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Matthieu

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil prices evolution between 2007 and 2009 has been the centre of a major controversy. This paper aims to understand the structural changes which happened on the oil market during the past decade. Analysis is focused on the consequences on oil prices of growing financial investments in commodities. More specifically, emphasis is set on little commented facts that comfort the hypothesis of a speculative bubble between 2007 and 2009

  6. Financial outlook for the Canadian gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friedenberg, B.

    1995-01-01

    The financial outlook for the Canadian gas industry depends on the outlook for gas prices at Canadian producing basins, the cost of producing in Canada and the volume of production of Canadian natural gas. Price, cost and volume determine the health of the Canadian industry. Industry's costs are the basis of the supply (volume) offered on the market and price is determined by the interaction of supply and demand. (author)

  7. Parameter Estimation for Dynamic Model of the Financial System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Novotná

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economy can be considered a large, open system which is influenced by fluctuations, both internal and external. Based on non-linear dynamics theory, the dynamic models of a financial system try to provide a new perspective by explaining the complicated behaviour of the system not as a result of external influences or random behaviour, but as a result of the behaviour and trends of the system’s internal structures. The present article analyses a chaotic financial system from the point of view of determining the time delay of the model variables – the interest rate, investment demand, and price index. The theory is briefly explained in the first chapters of the paper and serves as a basis for formulating the relations. This article aims to determine the appropriate length of time delay variables in a dynamic model of the financial system in order to express the real economic situation and respect the effect of the history of factors under consideration. The determination of the delay length is carried out for the time series representing Euro area. The methodology for the determination of the time delay is illustrated by a concrete example.

  8. Superconductivity and spin fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scalapino, D.J.

    1999-01-01

    The organizers of the Memorial Session for Herman Rietschel asked that the author review some of the history of the interplay of superconductivity and spin fluctuations. Initially, Berk and Schrieffer showed how paramagnon spin fluctuations could suppress superconductivity in nearly-ferromagnetic materials. Following this, Rietschel and various co-workers wrote a number of papers in which they investigated the role of spin fluctuations in reducing the Tc of various electron-phonon superconductors. Paramagnon spin fluctuations are also believed to provide the p-wave pairing mechanism responsible for the superfluid phases of 3 He. More recently, antiferromagnetic spin fluctuations have been proposed as the mechanism for d-wave pairing in the heavy-fermion superconductors and in some organic materials as well as possibly the high-Tc cuprates. Here the author will review some of this early history and discuss some of the things he has learned more recently from numerical simulations

  9. Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuhu Isah

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of crude oil prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid the future prices of the non-renewable natural resources to rise. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2 January to 29 May 2015. We used Markov Model (MM approach in forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using EViews and Maple software where the potential of this software in forecasting daily crude oil prices time series data was explored. Based on the study, we concluded that MM model is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.

  10. Energy prices and taxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Energy Prices and Taxes contains a major international compilation of energy prices at all market levels: import prices, industry prices and consumer prices. The statistics cover main petroleum products, gas, coal and electricity, giving for imported products an average price both for importing country and country of origin. Every issue includes full notes on sources and methods and a description of price mechanisms in each country

  11. MARKET ECONOMICS PRICING PARTICULARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Parshin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The price performs several economic functions: accounting, stimulation, distribution, demand and offer balancing, serving as production site rational choice criterion, information. Most important pricing principles are: price scientific and purpose-aimed substantiation, single pricing and price control process. Pricing process factors are external, internal, basic (independent on money-market, market-determined and controlling. Different pricing methods and models are to be examined, recommendations on practical application of those chosen are to be written.

  12. TOURISM MARKET: PRICING ISSUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina A. Kiseleva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Article retractedThe article is devoted to the actual topic of our time - the development of tourism services. The development of tourism is the leading technology trend dynamics maroon economic caused social restructuring of modern society. Macroeconomic Financial Statistics conrms the minimum amplitude of cyclical uctuations in the service sector, which turns it into countercyclical tool. In the Russian Federation the economic problem of a state policy in the sphere of tourist services is defined - to having turned tourism in competitive, innovative, countercyclical, and highly protable sector of national business. In article pricing factors are dened and are dened key of them, responsible for the cost of a tourist product. This work answers such questions of travel company as: denition of optimum group, formation of a transport tariff, structure of a tourist product on the main and accompanying services and their range, ways of sale. A practical advice by calculation of expenses is given. Correlation and regression and cluster analyses acted as research tools when performing work. In article the conclusion is drawn that the main methods of marketing management of pricing in the market of tourist services are: transition to the unified technology of granting a service on the basis of ISO; intensication and integration of the sphere of production and services

  13. Multiscale synchrony behaviors of paired financial time series by 3D multi-continuum percolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, M.; Wang, J.; Wang, B. T.

    2018-02-01

    Multiscale synchrony behaviors and nonlinear dynamics of paired financial time series are investigated, in an attempt to study the cross correlation relationships between two stock markets. A random stock price model is developed by a new system called three-dimensional (3D) multi-continuum percolation system, which is utilized to imitate the formation mechanism of price dynamics and explain the nonlinear behaviors found in financial time series. We assume that the price fluctuations are caused by the spread of investment information. The cluster of 3D multi-continuum percolation represents the cluster of investors who share the same investment attitude. In this paper, we focus on the paired return series, the paired volatility series, and the paired intrinsic mode functions which are decomposed by empirical mode decomposition. A new cross recurrence quantification analysis is put forward, combining with multiscale cross-sample entropy, to investigate the multiscale synchrony of these paired series from the proposed model. The corresponding research is also carried out for two China stock markets as comparison.

  14. Financial Statements

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Financial Statements and accompanying notes provided on .... to good governance principles. there is the risk that ...... responsibilities of the centre's internal auditor includes reviewing internal controls, including accounting and financial.

  15. Regional Inflation and Financial Dollarization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brown, M.; de Haas, R.; Sokolov, V.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: We exploit variation in consumer price inflation across 71 Russian regions to examine the relationship between the perceived stability of the local currency and financial dollarization. Our results show that regions with higher inflation experience an increase in the dollarization of

  16. Financial Derivatives

    OpenAIRE

    Janečková, Alena

    2011-01-01

    1 Abstract/ Financial derivatives The purpose of this thesis is to provide an introduction to financial derivatives which has been, from the legal perspective, described in a not satisfactory manner as quite little literature that can be found about this topic. The main objectives of this thesis are to define the term "financial derivatives" and its particular types and to analyse legal nature of these financial instruments. The last objective is to try to draft future law regulation of finan...

  17. Transfer Pricing in the European Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe MATEI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The transfer pricing mechanism is a tool commonly used to transfer the tax base from countries with high taxation in countries with low taxation. In the European Union, this financial operations generate significant tax revenue losses. In an attempt to limit the handling of corporate tax systems, many public authorities have introduced regulations on transfer pricing, but the effectiveness of these rules has proved limited, and they contributed to the increasing complexity of tax laws and to the appearance of additional costs for companies. A solution to the solving of the transfer pricing problem in the European Union is represented by the introduction of the common consolidated corporate tax base.

  18. Analysis of the transmission characteristics of China's carbon market transaction price volatility from the perspective of a complex network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jingjing; Li, Huajiao; Zhou, Jinsheng; Jiang, Meihui; Dong, Di

    2018-03-01

    Research on the price fluctuation transmission of the carbon trading pilot market is of great significance for the establishment of China's unified carbon market and its development in the future. In this paper, the carbon market transaction prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Guangdong were selected from December 29, 2013 to March 26, 2016, as sample data. Based on the view of the complex network theory, we construct a price fluctuation transmission network model of five pilot carbon markets in China, with the purposes of analyzing the topological features of this network, including point intensity, weighted clustering coefficient, betweenness centrality, and community structure, and elucidating the characteristics and transmission mechanism of price fluctuation in China's five pilot cities. The results of point intensity and weighted clustering coefficient show that the carbon prices in the five markets remained unchanged and transmitted smoothly in general, and price fragmentation is serious; however, at some point, the price fluctuates with mass phenomena. The result of betweenness centrality reflects that a small number of price fluctuations can control the whole market carbon price transmission and price fluctuation evolves in an alternate manner. The study provides direction for the scientific management of the carbon price. Policy makers should take a positive role in promoting market activity, preventing the risks that may arise from mass trade and scientifically forecasting the volatility of trading prices, which will provide experience for the establishment of a unified carbon market in China.

  19. Hadronic Correlations and Fluctuations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Volker

    2008-10-09

    We will provide a review of some of the physics which can be addressed by studying fluctuations and correlations in heavy ion collisions. We will discuss Lattice QCD results on fluctuations and correlations and will put them into context with observables which have been measured in heavy-ion collisions. Special attention will be given to the QCD critical point and the first order co-existence region, and we will discuss how the measurement of fluctuations and correlations can help in an experimental search for non-trivial structures in the QCD phase diagram.

  20. Quantum fluctuations and inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bardeen, J.M.; Bublik, G.J.

    1986-05-01

    We study the effect of quantum fluctuations on the roll-down rate of the inflation field in a semiclassical approximation; this is done by treating the inflation field as a classical random field. The quantum fluctuations are simulated by a noise term in the equation of motion. We consider two different inflationary scenarios (new and chaotic inflation) and find that the roll-down rate of the median value of the inflation field is increased by the quantum fluctuations. Non-linear effects may become important in the later stages of the inflationary regime. 8 refs., 2 figs

  1. Quantum fluctuations and inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bardeen, J.M.; Bublik, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    The authors study the effect of quantum fluctuations on the roll-down rate of the inflation field in a semiclassical approximation; this is done by treating the inflation field as a classical random field. The quantum fluctuations are simulated by a noise term in the equation of motion. Two different inflationary scenarios (new and chaotic inflation) are considered and it is found that the roll-down rate of the median value of the inflation field is increased by the quantum fluctuations. Non-linear effects may become important in the later stages of the inflationary regime. (author)

  2. Price volatility in wind dominant electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources causes price volatility in future electricity markets. This is specially the case in European countries that plan high penetration levels. This highlights the necessity for revising market regulations and mechanisms in accordance...... to generation combination portfolio. Proposed solutions should be able to tackle with emerging challenges which are mainly due to high variability and unpredictability of intermittent renewable resources. In this paper high price volatility will be introduced as an emerging challenge in wind dominant...... electricity markets. High price volatility is unappreciated because it imposes high financial risk levels to both electricity consumers and producers. Additionally high price variations impede tracking price signals by consumers in future smart grid and jeopardize implementation of demand response concepts...

  3. Compound Option Pricing under Fuzzy Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiandong Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the uncertainty of a financial market includes two aspects: risk and vagueness; in this paper, fuzzy sets theory is applied to model the imprecise input parameters (interest rate and volatility. We present the fuzzy price of compound option by fuzzing the interest and volatility in Geske’s compound option pricing formula. For each α, the α-level set of fuzzy prices is obtained according to the fuzzy arithmetics and the definition of fuzzy-valued function. We apply a defuzzification method based on crisp possibilistic mean values of the fuzzy interest rate and fuzzy volatility to obtain the crisp possibilistic mean value of compound option price. Finally, we present a numerical analysis to illustrate the compound option pricing under fuzzy environment.

  4. Financial fragility and global dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dieci, Roberto; Sordi, Serena; Vercelli, Alessandro

    2006-01-01

    This paper deals with a simple model of financial fluctuations, where a crucial role is played by the dynamic interaction between aggregate current and intertemporal financial ratios. The model results in a 4D discrete-time dynamical system-capable of generating complex dynamics-which is analyzed by means of both analytical tools, such as local stability analysis and bifurcation theory, and numerical simulations. The behavior of the model is studied for different parameter regimes. We show that its dynamic behavior is very sensitive to the parameters that represent (1) the speed of adjustment of the desired current financial ratio towards a safe level of the intertemporal one and (2) the intensity with which aggregate current financial decisions affect future financial constraints. In particular, different parameter regimes are identified, giving rise to two different 'routes' to complexity, one leading to chaotic dynamics, the other to a coexistence of attractors and path-dependence

  5. Cryptocurrency price drivers: Wavelet coherence analysis revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Ross C; Gorse, Denise

    2018-01-01

    Cryptocurrencies have experienced recent surges in interest and price. It has been discovered that there are time intervals where cryptocurrency prices and certain online and social media factors appear related. In addition it has been noted that cryptocurrencies are prone to experience intervals of bubble-like price growth. The hypothesis investigated here is that relationships between online factors and price are dependent on market regime. In this paper, wavelet coherence is used to study co-movement between a cryptocurrency price and its related factors, for a number of examples. This is used alongside a well-known test for financial asset bubbles to explore whether relationships change dependent on regime. The primary finding of this work is that medium-term positive correlations between online factors and price strengthen significantly during bubble-like regimes of the price series; this explains why these relationships have previously been seen to appear and disappear over time. A secondary finding is that short-term relationships between the chosen factors and price appear to be caused by particular market events (such as hacks / security breaches), and are not consistent from one time interval to another in the effect of the factor upon the price. In addition, for the first time, wavelet coherence is used to explore the relationships between different cryptocurrencies.

  6. Report on investigational research on business activities under fluctuating exchange rates and the trend of energy-conservation related investments in fiscal 1995; 1995 nendo hendosuru kawase rate no motode kigyo katsudo oyobi shoene kanren toshi doko nado ni kansuru chosa kenkyu hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-03-01

    A study was made on effects of fluctuation of the exchange rate on business activities in the iron/steel industry. Fluctuation of the exchange rate is an uncertain element in working out a plan for future business activities, and hinders research development and equipment investment to be positively made. In the iron/steel industry in Japan, the rate of yen basis in trade settlement currency is especially lower than in other industries, and has a constitution which is easily influenced by yen appreciation. However, the iron/steel industry is an industry exporting products, and at the same time, is an industry depending on import for most of the main raw materials. Accordingly, the yen appreciation not only has negative effects, but has different effects, depending on the rate of shifting the amount of exchange rate fluctuation to local price, and on conditions of the rate of realizing price lowering which means that the exchange rate fluctuation reflects the lowering of imported raw material prices. If only these conditions are fulfilled, the yen appreciation even produces rather favorable effects in the iron/steel industry. In the circle, the conversion of the structure is being expedited for converting effects of yen appreciation to beneficial ones. Financially, exchange risk management is also necessary. 41 figs., 35 tabs.

  7. Swap transactions as a financial tool, their recognition as international accounting standard 39 and display in financial statements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Kablan

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Developments in international financial markets concern both developed countries and developing countries closely. The transactions of institutions arising from of commercial activities display a more complex and more risky state in line with international economic developments. The globalization trend in the world economy, the extreme fluctuations in currencies, interests and product prices have rendered closely following up the developments in financial tools mandatory. Taking advantage of derivative financial tools which increase the revenue of assets by taking future risks into consideration, impact a decrease in debt costs and has the purpose of transferring risks are of vital importance with respect to the successful management of companies. At the present time in which international commerce, free market economy and globalization has gained in importance, one of the derivative products used in risk management and have a wide implementation area is swap transactions. Swap transactions can be expressed as a financial transaction including the exchange of interest, foreign currency or both between two or more parties. Swap transactions in particular are used for purposes such as protection against risks due to interest rates and exchange rates, ensuring low cost financing, changing the debt structure and entering different markets. In this study, the generally defined characteristics of swap transactions, which have an important standing within financial risk management and have been rapidly developing in the world in recent years and their recognition according to the International Accounting Standard 39 concerning the recognition of swap transactions, which has in particular termed the study have been focused on. In the framework of the standard, interest swap and foreign currency swap implementation study were included with respect to the matter.

  8. CONTAGION EFFECTS OF US FINANCIAL CRISIS ON INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anika Sedyaning Wikanti

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This research analyzes the contagion effects of the US financial markets on Indonesian fi-nancial markets during the 2008 global financial crisis. It specifically investigates whether the slump in the US stock prices directly produced a slump in Indonesian stock prices, or indirectly through the slump in regional stock prices. It also examines whether the slump spilled over into rupiah exchange rate. Using Vector Autoregression and Vector Error Correction Model, the paper finds direct contagion effect of the US financial crisis into Indonesian stock markets. It also finds both direct and indirect contagion effect of the US financial crisis into foreign exchange market.Keywords: Contagion, stock price, exchange rate, financial crisisJEL classification numbers: G12, G15

  9. Production price of hydrogen from grid connected electrolysis in a power market with high wind penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joergensen, Claus; Ropenus, Stephanie

    2008-01-01

    In liberalized power markets, there are significant power price fluctuations due to independently varying changes in demand and supply, the latter being substantial in systems with high wind power penetration. In such systems, hydrogen production by grid connected electrolysis can be cost optimized by operating an electrolyzer part time. This paper presents a study on the minimization of the hydrogen production price and its dependence on estimated power price fluctuations. The calculation of power price fluctuations is based on a parameterization of existing data on wind power production, power consumption and power price evolution in the West Danish power market area. The price for hydrogen is derived as a function of the optimal electrolyzer operation hours per year for four different wind penetration scenarios. It is found to amount to 0.41-0.45 EUR/Nm 3 . The study further discusses the hydrogen price sensitivity towards investment costs and the contribution from non-wind power sources. (author)

  10. Production price of hydrogen from grid connected electrolysis in a power market with high wind penetration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joergensen, Claus [Materials Research Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Ropenus, Stephanie [Systems Analysis Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

    2008-10-15

    In liberalized power markets, there are significant power price fluctuations due to independently varying changes in demand and supply, the latter being substantial in systems with high wind power penetration. In such systems, hydrogen production by grid connected electrolysis can be cost optimized by operating an electrolyzer part time. This paper presents a study on the minimization of the hydrogen production price and its dependence on estimated power price fluctuations. The calculation of power price fluctuations is based on a parameterization of existing data on wind power production, power consumption and power price evolution in the West Danish power market area. The price for hydrogen is derived as a function of the optimal electrolyzer operation hours per year for four different wind penetration scenarios. It is found to amount to 0.41-0.45 EUR/Nm{sup 3}. The study further discusses the hydrogen price sensitivity towards investment costs and the contribution from non-wind power sources. (author)

  11. Production price of hydrogen from grid connected electrolysis in a power market with high wind penetration.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joergensen, Claus [Materials Research Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Ropenus, Stephanie [Systems Analysis Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

    2008-10-15

    In liberalized power markets, there are significant power price fluctuations due to independently varying changes in demand and supply, the latter being substantial in systems with high wind power penetration. In such systems, hydrogen production by grid connected electrolysis can be cost optimized by operating an electrolyzer part time. This paper presents a study on the minimization of the hydrogen production price and its dependence on estimated power price fluctuations. The calculation of power price fluctuations is based on a parameterization of existing data on wind power production, power consumption and power price evolution in the West Danish power market area. The price for hydrogen is derived as a function of the optimal electrolyzer operation hours per year for four different wind penetration scenarios. It is found to amount to 0.41-0.45 EUR/Nm{sup 3}. The study further discusses the hydrogen price sensitivity towards investment costs and the contribution from non-wind power sources. (author)

  12. The Impact of Trade Policies on Spiraling Prices in International Agricultural Commodity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnes Ghibuțiu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Since the mid-2000s food prices have been on an upward trend. In the first months of 2011, agricultural commodity prices reached an all-time high, fuelling fears about the imminent outbreak of a new food crisis, similar to the 1973/74 and 2006/08 ones. Behind concerns about increased price levels and volatility in international agricultural commodity markets lie concerns about food security. Hence, the international community is now under pressure to urgently find solutions for tempering strong upward fluctuations in prices for many major food commodities. Trade policy changes are increasingly discussed as a major contributing factor to food price surges. This paper addresses some issues related to the recurrent global food crises from the perspective of trade policy, specifically export restrictions. After a brief review of the fundamental drivers of the upward trend in real food prices (rising global population and income, climate change, high oil prices, increasing cereal use for biofuel production, and financial speculation, it examines the upsurge in agricultural export restrictions over the recent years. Relying on WTO's trade policy monitoring exercise, it highlights typology, motivations and effects of the newly introduced export restrictions, and finds that a major factor behind their recent proliferation is the lack of effective and binding multilateral rules concerning these trade policy instruments. The paper argues that strenghtening and improving WTO's rules and disciplines is essential for mitigating increased price pressure and volatility as well as the associated food security risks. While the issue of export restrictions is currently the topic of discussions under the Doha Round, trade negotiations are in impasse since 2008. Hence, urgent and successful conclusion of the round would be an essential step. In the meanwhile, a closer regular monitoring of all forms of export restrictions would help to provide at least more

  13. On the importance of commodity and energy price shocks for the macroeconomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edelstein, Paul S.

    Although higher commodity prices are commonly thought to presage higher rates of inflation, the existing literature suggests that the predictive power of commodity prices for inflation has waned since the 1980s. In the first chapter, I show that this result can be overturned using state-of-the-art forecast combination methods. Moreover, commodity prices are shown to contain predictive information not contained in the leading principal components of a broad set of macroeconomic and financial variables. These improved inflation forecasts are of little value, however, for predicting actual Fed policy decisions. The remaining two chapters study the effect of energy price shocks on U.S. consumer and business expenditures. In the second chapter, I show that there is no statistical support for the presence of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price increases and decreases. This finding has important implications for empirical and theoretical models of the transmission of energy price shocks. I then quantify the direct effect on real consumption of (1) unanticipated changes in discretionary income, (2) shifts in precautionary savings, and (3) changes in the operating cost of energy-using durables. Finally, I trace the declining importance of energy price shocks relative to the 1970s to changes in the composition of U.S. automobile production and the declining overall importance of the U.S. automobile sector. An alternative source of asymmetry is the response of nonresidential fixed investment to energy price shocks. In the third chapter, I show that the apparent asymmetry in the estimated responses of business fixed investment in equipment and structures is largely an artifact (1) of the aggregation of mining-related expenditures by the oil, natural gas, and coal mining industry and all other expenditures, and (2) of ignoring an exogenous shift in investment caused by the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Once symmetry is imposed and miningrelated expenditures

  14. Basket Option Pricing Using GP-GPU Hardware Acceleration

    KAUST Repository

    Douglas, Craig C.; Lee, Hyoseop

    2010-01-01

    We introduce a basket option pricing problem arisen in financial mathematics. We discretized the problem based on the alternating direction implicit (ADI) method and parallel cyclic reduction is applied to solve the set of tridiagonal matrices

  15. 10 CFR 600.145 - Cost and price analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ASSISTANCE REGULATIONS FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE RULES Uniform Administrative Requirements for Grants and Cooperative Agreements With Institutions of Higher Education, Hospitals, and Other... quotations submitted, market prices and similar indicia, together with discounts. Cost analysis is the review...

  16. EFFECTS OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS IN THE BANKING SYSTEM OF KOSOVO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myrvete Badivuku-Pantina

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Financial crises are phenomena that happened before and continue to happen even nowadays. There were many financial crises in the last century, starting with the Great Depression of 1929 and continuing with other financial crisis, and it was believed that people would learn from their previous experiences and would not allow the crisis to happen again. But the financial crisis of 2007, created the impression that no one wanted to learn for the real causes of their occurrence and consequences, often disastrous for countries and the globe, and as such allowed the crisis to be repeated. Effects of the 2007 financial crisis, which originally started in the USA’s mortgage market and which was quickly spread all over the world, even to this date it still continues to have effect on real economies of many states, e.g. Greece. The spread of the crisis was primarily due to globalization and commercial trades among countries. Because of the dependence of economies on one another it was created the domino effect and all the countries were affected from the crisis. As a result, the crisis seems to have revealed the disadvantages of globalization. Finances of the world were shocked and rapid fluctuations were reflected in the stock prices. Kosovo, as a new and small country in the Western Balkans is not much globalized and open which was beneficial in preventing it from being affected from the global financial crisis. Its economy has slightly felt the effect of the crisis because the banking system in Kosovo is not much open to the international financial markets as they operate mostly with their clients’ deposits. The purpose of this research is to assess the implications of the global financial crisis in the banking system of Kosovo, and also to identify the measures that the Central Bank and the Government should undertake in order to protect the economy from external implications.

  17. Fluorescence fluctuation spectroscopy (FFS)

    CERN Document Server

    Tetin, Sergey

    2012-01-01

    This new volume of Methods in Enzymology continues the legacy of this premier serial with quality chapters authored by leaders in the field. This volume covers fluorescence fluctuation spectroscopy and includes chapters on such topics as Förster resonance energy transfer (fret) with fluctuation algorithms, protein corona on nanoparticles by FCS, and FFS approaches to the study of receptors in live cells. Continues the legacy of this premier serial with quality chapters authored by leaders in the field Covers fluorescence fluctuation spectroscopy Contains chapters on such topics as Förster resonance energy transfer (fret) with fluctuation algorithms, protein corona on nanoparticles by FCS, and FFS approaches to the study of receptors in live cells.

  18. Fully Quantum Fluctuation Theorems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Åberg, Johan

    2018-02-01

    Systems that are driven out of thermal equilibrium typically dissipate random quantities of energy on microscopic scales. Crooks fluctuation theorem relates the distribution of these random work costs to the corresponding distribution for the reverse process. By an analysis that explicitly incorporates the energy reservoir that donates the energy and the control system that implements the dynamic, we obtain a quantum generalization of Crooks theorem that not only includes the energy changes in the reservoir but also the full description of its evolution, including coherences. Moreover, this approach opens up the possibility for generalizations of the concept of fluctuation relations. Here, we introduce "conditional" fluctuation relations that are applicable to nonequilibrium systems, as well as approximate fluctuation relations that allow for the analysis of autonomous evolution generated by global time-independent Hamiltonians. We furthermore extend these notions to Markovian master equations, implicitly modeling the influence of the heat bath.

  19. The Bahamas; Financial Sector Stability Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    International Monetary Fund

    2013-01-01

    This article is an overview of the structure of the Bahamian financial system. After the financial crisis in the United States, the Bahamian financial structure showed fragile growth. Tourism, the main source of income for the domestic economy, weakened owing to the U.S. crisis. The increase in oil prices was the key reason for the destroyed infrastructure. However, amidst the vulnerabilities, the banking sector showed stability with high capital and liquidity and sustained challenges; the in...

  20. Financial Literacy and Financial Behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sayinzoga, Aussi; Bulte, Erwin H.; Lensink, Robert

    2016-01-01

    We organise a field experiment with smallholder farmers in Rwanda to measure the impact of financial literacy training on financial knowledge and behaviour. The training increased financial literacy of participants, changed their savings and borrowing behaviour and had a positive effect on the

  1. Regulatory Sanctions and Reputational Damage in Financial Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Armour, John; Mayer, Colin; Polo, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    We study the impact of the announcement of enforcement of financial and securities regulation by the UK’s Financial Services Authority and London Stock Exchange on the market price of penalized firms. Since these agencies do not announce enforcement until a penalty is levied, their actions provide a uniquely clean dataset on which to examine reputational effects. We find that reputational sanctions are very real: their stock price impact is on average ten times larger than the financial penal...

  2. Nonlinear stochastic interacting dynamics and complexity of financial gasket fractal-like lattice percolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun

    2018-05-01

    A novel nonlinear stochastic interacting price dynamics is proposed and investigated by the bond percolation on Sierpinski gasket fractal-like lattice, aim to make a new approach to reproduce and study the complexity dynamics of real security markets. Fractal-like lattices correspond to finite graphs with vertices and edges, which are similar to fractals, and Sierpinski gasket is a well-known example of fractals. Fractional ordinal array entropy and fractional ordinal array complexity are introduced to analyze the complexity behaviors of financial signals. To deeper comprehend the fluctuation characteristics of the stochastic price evolution, the complexity analysis of random logarithmic returns and volatility are preformed, including power-law distribution, fractional sample entropy and fractional ordinal array complexity. For further verifying the rationality and validity of the developed stochastic price evolution, the actual security market dataset are also studied with the same statistical methods for comparison. The empirical results show that this stochastic price dynamics can reconstruct complexity behaviors of the actual security markets to some extent.

  3. Pricing and Trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huck, Steffen; Ruchala, Gabriele K.; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    -competitive (monopolistic) markets. We then introduce a regulated intermediate price above the oligopoly price and below the monopoly price. The effect in monopolies is more or less in line with standard intuition. As price falls volume increases and so does quality, such that overall efficiency is raised by 50%. However......We experimentally examine the effects of flexible and fixed prices in markets for experience goods in which demand is driven by trust. With flexible prices, we observe low prices and high quality in competitive (oligopolistic) markets, and high prices coupled with low quality in non...

  4. Pricing end-of-life components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadde, Srikanth; Kamarthi, Sagar V.; Gupta, Surendra M.

    2005-11-01

    The main objective of a product recovery facility (PRF) is to disassemble end-of-life (EOL) products and sell the reclaimed components for reuse and recovered materials in second-hand markets. Variability in the inflow of EOL products and fluctuation in demand for reusable components contribute to the volatility in inventory levels. To stay profitable the PRFs ought to manage their inventory by regulating the price appropriately to minimize holding costs. This work presents two deterministic pricing models for a PRF bounded by environmental regulations. In the first model, the demand is price dependent and in the second, the demand is both price and time dependent. The models are valid for single component with no inventory replenishment sale during the selling horizon . Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the models.

  5. Gasoline prices and the public interest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-12-01

    The concerns that have been raised about gasoline prices in Newfoundland were addressed and the reasons why they differ significantly from one part of Newfoundland to another were examined. A research and investigation program was established to identify the factors contributing to the price of, and price variation in gasoline sold in the province. Companies directly involved in the gasoline retail business in the province were invited to answer an extensive questionnaire which asked detailed, confidential information concerning the company's operations. This report contains the results of the analysis of the responses, and provides a comprehensive picture of the operation of the petroleum industry. It also contains a series of recommendations for the government with respect to monitoring price fluctuations, gathering data about the industry, and constructing an independently owned and operated terminal storage facility. The report recommends against direct regulation. tabs., figs

  6. Resisting Corporate Corruption: Cases in Practical Ethics From Enron Through The Financial Crisis, 2nd Edition. By Stephen V. Arbogast, Wiley-Scrivener, 2013; 552 Pages. Price US $75.00, ISBN 978-1-118-20855-7

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-Kun Lin

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The following paragraphs are reproduced from the website of the publisher [1]. Taking a unique approach to business ethics unlike the typical focus on conceptual/legal frameworks, this book features 25 case studies that cover a full range of business practices, controls, and ethics issues. The new edition is fully updated with new case studies from the recent financial crisis, comparing it with Enron's crossing of various ethical lines. Interpretive essays explore financial control systems and lessons learned from specific case studies and circumstances. Readers will find a practical toolkit they can use to identify ethics issues and tackle problems effectively within corporations.

  7. Coal pricing in China: Issues and reform strategy. World Bank discussion paper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albouy, Y.

    1991-01-01

    The study assesses the magnitude of coal price distortions left in place by the dual track pricing approach to price reform implemented by China in the 1980s; it examines the economic and financial costs of these distortions and identifies the potential winners and losers of pricing improvements. Finally the report outlines a strategy for gradual price adjustments and liberalization in the coal sector. (Copyright (c) 1991 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank.)

  8. Allan deviation analysis of financial return series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Pérez, R.

    2012-05-01

    We perform a scaling analysis for the return series of different financial assets applying the Allan deviation (ADEV), which is used in the time and frequency metrology to characterize quantitatively the stability of frequency standards since it has demonstrated to be a robust quantity to analyze fluctuations of non-stationary time series for different observation intervals. The data used are opening price daily series for assets from different markets during a time span of around ten years. We found that the ADEV results for the return series at short scales resemble those expected for an uncorrelated series, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. On the other hand, the ADEV results for absolute return series for short scales (first one or two decades) decrease following approximately a scaling relation up to a point that is different for almost each asset, after which the ADEV deviates from scaling, which suggests that the presence of clustering, long-range dependence and non-stationarity signatures in the series drive the results for large observation intervals.

  9. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing... advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent butterfat, component prices, and advanced pricing factors shall be as follows. The prices and pricing factors described...

  10. The Nigerian Cocoa Farmers and the Fluctuations in World Cocoa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The dynamics of the international economy, such as the 1930s fluctuations in the prices of primary commodities on the world market, affected Nigerian economy and society a great deal. Of all the commodity producers in Nigeria, cocoa farmers were the worst hit. This is because cocoa farmers depended on the world market ...

  11. Design and implementation of ticket price forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuling; Li, Zhichao

    2018-05-01

    With the advent of the aviation travel industry, a large number of data mining technologies have been developed to increase profits for airlines in the past two decades. The implementation of the digital optimization strategy leads to price discrimination, for example, similar seats on the same flight are purchased at different prices, depending on the time of purchase, the supplier, and so on. Price fluctuations make the prediction of ticket prices have application value. In this paper, a combination of ARMA algorithm and random forest algorithm is proposed to predict the price of air ticket. The experimental results show that the model is more reliable by comparing the forecasting results with the actual results of each price model. The model is helpful for passengers to buy tickets and to save money. Based on the proposed model, using Python language and SQL Server database, we design and implement the ticket price forecasting system.

  12. CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING FINANCIAL STABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MERCEA PATRICIA AMALIA

    2018-02-01

    target digital coin concepts, use in distributed real-time payment systems of blockchain technologology, artificial intelligence, and information security. However, a large number of economists admit that the current crisis has emphasized the overcoming of the limits of (mainstream economics and its implications in the field of financial regulation and the sphere of monetary policy that should focus not only on price stability, but also on financial stability. In other words, the banks, the financial institutions must be obliged to hold a minimal countercyclical capital and mandatory reserves that should be large enough to cope with the turmoil generated by the decrease of the asset prices and the liquidity risk. In macroprudential policy, the “shadow banking system” (investment banks, hedge funds, private equity funds must also be included.Last but not least, the central banks have to cooperate with the other categories of systemic risk managers: Financial Stability Oversight Council-FSOC (USA, European Systemic Risk Board-ESRB (EU, Financial Policy Committee-FPC (Great Britain, National Committee for Financial Stability-CNSF (Romania.

  13. Competitive Pricing by a Price Leader

    OpenAIRE

    Abhik Roy; Dominique M. Hanssens; Jagmohan S. Raju

    1994-01-01

    We examine the problem of pricing in a market where one brand acts as a price leader. We develop a procedure to estimate a leader's price rule, which is optimal given a sales target objective, and allows for the inclusion of demand forecasts. We illustrate our estimation procedure by calibrating this optimal price rule for both the leader and the follower using data on past sales and prices from the mid-size sedan segment of the U.S. automobile market. Our results suggest that a leader-follow...

  14. ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF PRICING AND TRANSFER PRICING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TÜNDE VERES

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The pricing methods in practice need really complex view of the business situation and depend on the strategy and market position of a company. The structure of a price seems simple: cost plus margin. Both categories are special area in the management accounting. Information about the product costs, the allocation methodologies in cost accounting, the analyzing of revenue and different level of the margin needs information from accounting system. This paper analyzes the pricing methods from management accounting aspects to show out the role of the accounting system in the short term and long term pricing and transfer pricing decisions.

  15. Do stock prices drive people crazy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chung-Liang; Chen, Chin-Shyan; Liu, Tsai-Ching

    2015-03-01

    This is the first research to examine a potential relation between stock market volatility and mental disorders. Using data on daily incidences of mental disorders in Taiwan over 4000 days from 1998 through 2009 to assess the time-series relation between stock price movements and mental disorders, we observe that stock price fluctuation clearly affects the hospitalization of mental disorders. We find that during a 12-year follow-up period, a low stock price index, a daily fall in the stock price index and consecutive daily falls in the stock price index are all associated with greater of mental disorders hospitalizations. A 1000-point fall in the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) increases the number of daily mental disorders hospitalizations by 4.71%. A 1% fall in the TAIEX in one single day increases daily hospitalizations for mental disorders by 0.36%. When the stock price index falls one consecutive day, it causes a daily increase of approximately 0.32% hospitalizations due to mental disorders on that day. Stock price index is found to be significant for both gender and all age groups. In addition, daily change is significant for both gender and middle-age groups, whereas accumulated change is significant for males and people aged 45-64. Stockholdings can help people accumulate wealth, but they can also increase mental disorders hospitalizations. In other words, stock price fluctuations do drive people crazy. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

  16. Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Koichiro

    This dissertation consists of three empirical studies on nonlinear pricing in energy and environmental markets. The first investigates how consumers respond to multi-tier nonlinear price schedules for residential electricity. Chapter 2 asks a similar research question for residential water pricing. Finally, I examine the effect of nonlinear financial rewards for energy conservation by applying a regression discontinuity design to a large-scale electricity rebate program that was implemented in California. Economic theory generally assumes that consumers respond to marginal prices when making economic decisions, but this assumption may not hold for complex price schedules. The chapter "Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing" provides empirical evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal price when faced with nonlinear electricity price schedules. Nonlinear price schedules, such as progressive income tax rates and multi-tier electricity prices, complicate economic decisions by creating multiple marginal prices for the same good. Evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that consumers facing such price schedules may respond to average price as a heuristic. I empirically test this prediction using field data by exploiting price variation across a spatial discontinuity in electric utility service areas. The territory border of two electric utilities lies within several city boundaries in southern California. As a result, nearly identical households experience substantially different nonlinear electricity price schedules. Using monthly household-level panel data from 1999 to 2008, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. I show that even though this sub-optimizing behavior has a minimal impact on individual welfare, it can critically alter the policy implications of nonlinear pricing. The second chapter " How Do

  17. Price Uncertainty in Linear Production Situations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suijs, J.P.M.

    1999-01-01

    This paper analyzes linear production situations with price uncertainty, and shows that the corrresponding stochastic linear production games are totally balanced. It also shows that investment funds, where investors pool their individual capital for joint investments in financial assets, fit into

  18. Downside Risk And Empirical Asset Pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. van Vliet (Pim)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractCurrently, the Nobel prize winning Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) celebrates its 40th birthday. Although widely applied in financial management, this model does not fully capture the empirical riskreturn relation of stocks; witness the beta, size, value and momentum effects. These

  19. Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.; in 't Veld, D.

    2014-01-01

    The global financial crisis indicated the limitations of representative rational agent models for asset pricing solely based on economic fundamentals. We estimate a simple behavioural heterogeneous agents model with boundedly rational traders in which the fundamental value of the stock prices is

  20. The Price of Commodity Risk in Stock and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Boons (Martijn); F.A. de Roon (Frans); M.K. Szymanowska (Marta)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe find that commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. Following the financialization of commodities, investors hedge commodity price risk directly in the futures market, primarily via commodity index investments, whereas before they gained commodity exposure

  1. 7 CFR 3019.45 - Cost and price analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) OFFICE OF THE CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE UNIFORM ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS FOR GRANTS AND AGREEMENTS WITH INSTITUTIONS OF... accomplished in various ways, including the comparison of price quotations submitted, market prices and similar...

  2. Stochastic arbitrage return and its implications for option pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Fedotov, Sergei; Panayides, Stephanos

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to explore the role that arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that option price and random arbitrage returns change on different time scales which allows us to develop an asymptotic pricing theory involving the central limit theorem for random proces...

  3. Pricing of Traffic Light Options and other Hybrid Products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    companies stay solvent in the traffic light stress test system introduced by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authorities in 2001. Similar systems are now being implemented in several other European countries. A pricing approach for general payoffs is presented and illustrated with simulation via...... the pricing of a hybrid derivative known as the EUR Sage Note. The approach can be used to price many existing structured products....

  4. Consentaneous agent-based and stochastic model of the financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gontis, Vygintas; Kononovicius, Aleksejus

    2014-01-01

    We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial markets, is very ambiguous emphasizes the exceptional value of well defined analytically tractable agent systems. Herding as one of the behavior peculiarities considered in the behavioral finance is the main property of the agent interactions we deal with in this contribution. Looking for the consentaneous agent-based and macroscopic approach we combine two origins of the noise: exogenous one, related to the information flow, and endogenous one, arising form the complex stochastic dynamics of agents. As a result we propose a three state agent-based herding model of the financial markets. From this agent-based model we derive a set of stochastic differential equations, which describes underlying macroscopic dynamics of agent population and log price in the financial markets. The obtained solution is then subjected to the exogenous noise, which shapes instantaneous return fluctuations. We test both Gaussian and q-Gaussian noise as a source of the short term fluctuations. The resulting model of the return in the financial markets with the same set of parameters reproduces empirical probability and spectral densities of absolute return observed in New York, Warsaw and NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Our result confirms the prevalent idea in behavioral finance that herding interactions may be dominant over agent rationality and contribute towards bubble formation.

  5. The myth of financial innovation and the great moderation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Haan, W.; Sterk, V.

    2009-01-01

    Financial innovation is widely believed to be at least partly responsible for the recent financial crisis. At the same time, there are empirical and theoretical arguments that support the view that changes in financial markets played a role in the "great moderation". If both are true, then the price

  6. Ordered phase and non-equilibrium fluctuation in stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2002-08-01

    We analyze the statistics of daily price change of stock market in the framework of a statistical physics model for the collective fluctuation of stock portfolio. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins, and the Hamiltonian of the system is expressed by spin-spin interactions as in spin glass models of disordered magnetic systems. Through the analysis of Dow-Jones industrial portfolio consisting of 30 stock issues by this model, we find a non-equilibrium fluctuation mode on the point slightly below the boundary between ordered and disordered phases. The remaining 29 modes are still in disordered phase and well described by Gibbs distribution. The variance of the fluctuation is outlined by the theoretical curve and peculiarly large in the non-equilibrium mode compared with those in the other modes remaining in ordinary phase.

  7. Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.

    2004-04-01

    Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

  8. Financial mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Jothi, A Lenin

    2009-01-01

    Financial services, particularly banking and insurance services is the prominent sector for the development of a nation. After the liberalisation of financial sector in India, the scope of getting career opportunities has been widened. It is heartening to note that various universities in India have introduced professional courses on banking and insurance. A new field of applied mathematics has come into prominence under the name of Financial Mathematics. Financial mathematics has attained much importance in the recent years because of the role played by mathematical concepts in decision - m

  9. Sellers to dominate price talks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLean, A.

    2000-01-01

    The last decade has been a sad one for coal exporters with only two price increases going the sellers' way, one in 1995 and the other in 1996. True, the financial hardships imposed upon the miners have resulted in improvements in all aspects of the coal chain. Mine productivity as measured in tonnes of output per employee is up, while rail and port charges and even, albeit at more modest levels, government charges, are down. However there is a widespread viewpoint that this will be the year of the price rise and, potentially, a big one. The difference in the forthcoming coal negotiations with the Japanese buyers is that, this time, the tightness of the market, both in coking and thermal coal, is demand driven

  10. When the weather governs the price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braaten, Jan

    2003-01-01

    In the winter 2002-2003 the Nordic power market experienced a price shock: prices rose by a factor of eight during the autumn of 2002. This was caused above all by a record failure of the water influx to the entire Nordic hydropower system. But extreme cold and technical problems with import from the Continent aggravated the problem. The probability of so small influx in autumn is less than 0.5 per cent. The large variation in influx, in particular from one year to the next, create large price fluctuations which can be unpleasant for the consumers. At the same time the price mechanism is important for the proper balance between demand and supply. It was the high prices that last winter raised the import to Norway and Sweden and that caused idle fossil power stations to be restarted and the consumption to go down. A better energy balance in Norway and Sweden will increase the supply security, but in order to exploit the unstable hydropower resources well and to achieve an acceptable supply security in dry years flexibility is needed in production, consumption, and trade with the surrounding world. Most measures to increase the flexibility cost money, and it is probably impossible and economically undesirable to protect the consumers from all price shocks. It should be possible, however, for those who want stable expenses, to choose contracts with firm prices for the whole consumption or for part of it.

  11. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach

  12. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-07-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.

  13. Heterogeneity and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, Simon; Mayshar, Joram

    2000-01-01

    An economy with agents having constant yet heterogeneous degrees of relative risk aversion prices assets as though there were a single decreasing relative risk aversion pricing representative agent. The pricing kernel has fat tails and option prices do not conform to the Black-Scholes formula.

  14. The Impact Discounts and the Price-Quality Effect Have on the Choice of an Institution of Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigley, Charles J., Jr.; Bingham, Frank G., Jr.; Notarantonio, Elaine M.; Murray, Keith

    1999-01-01

    A survey of 303 potential college students and their parents found that high price and low price institutions are evaluated higher on quality attributes than are moderately priced institutions. Further, discounts (such as financial aid) were found to have little effect on the attendance decision. Implications for the pricing strategies used by…

  15. Universal mesoscopic conductance fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evangelou, S.N.

    1992-01-01

    The theory of conductance fluctuations in disordered metallic systems with size large compared to the mean free path of the electron but small compared to localization length is considered. It is demonstrates that fluctuations have an universal character and are due to repulsion between levels and spectral rigidity. The basic fluctuation measures for the energy spectrum in the mesoscopic regime of disordered systems are consistent with the Gaussian random matrix ensemble predictions. Although our disordered electron random matrix ensemble does not belong to the Gaussian ensemble the two ensembles turn out to be essentially similar. The level repulsion and the spectral rigidity found in nuclear spectra should also be observed in the metallic regime of Anderson localization. 7 refs. (orig.)

  16. Spin fluctuations and the

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.M. Loktev

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the spectral properties of a phenomenological model for a weakly doped two-dimensional antiferromagnet, in which the carriers move within one of the two sublattices where they were introduced. Such a constraint results in the free carrier spectra with the maxima at k=(± π/2 , ± π/2 observed in some cuprates. We consider the spectral properties of the model by taking into account fluctuations of the spins in the antiferromagnetic background. We show that such fluctuations lead to a non-pole-like structure of the single-hole Green's function and these fluctuations can be responsible for some anomalous "strange metal" properties of underdoped cuprates in the nonsuperconducting regime.

  17. A statistical analysis of product prices in online markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuno, T.; Watanabe, T.

    2010-08-01

    We empirically investigate fluctuations in product prices in online markets by using a tick-by-tick price data collected from a Japanese price comparison site, and find some similarities and differences between product and asset prices. The average price of a product across e-retailers behaves almost like a random walk, although the probability of price increase/decrease is higher conditional on the multiple events of price increase/decrease. This is quite similar to the property reported by previous studies about asset prices. However, we fail to find a long memory property in the volatility of product price changes. Also, we find that the price change distribution for product prices is close to an exponential distribution, rather than a power law distribution. These two findings are in a sharp contrast with the previous results regarding asset prices. We propose an interpretation that these differences may stem from the absence of speculative activities in product markets; namely, e-retailers seldom repeat buy and sell of a product, unlike traders in asset markets.

  18. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-05-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.

  19. Regulation of Pharmaceutical Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

    On April 1, 2005, Denmark changed the way references prices, a main determinant of reimbursements for pharmaceutical purchases, are calculated. The previous reference prices, which were based on average EU prices, were substituted to minimum domestic prices. Novel to the literature, we estimate...... the joint eects of this reform on prices and quantities. Prices decreased more than 26 percent due to the reform, which reduced patient and government expenditures by 3.0 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, and producer revenues by 5.0 percent. The prices of expensive products decreased more than...

  20. RISK MANAGEMENT WITH FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM ROMANIAN NON-FINANCIAL FIRMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorin Gabriel Anton

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial risk management has rapidly evolved over the past two decades and has become an indispensable function in many institutions from different area of activities. In the last two decades, as the financial markets have become more and more mature, an increasing number of firms from emerging economies have chosen to use derivatives to hedge financial risks. As a result, risk management with financial derivatives has attracted much attention recently, becoming an important topic in the financial literature. However, we know little about the use of financial derivatives by firms from emerging economies and about the effect of these instruments on firms’ risk and value. The aim of the paper is to provide new insights into the use of financial derivatives for hedging purpose by non-financial firms from emerging markets. We analyzed risk management practices on a sample of 68 non-financial firms listed at Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE over a long time frame (2001 to 2011. We found that Romanian non-financial firms from our sample are exposed mainly to commodity price risk, currency risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk. More than half of the firms in our sample (55.88% publish in their annual reports the goal of risk management process. Our results show that 10.29% of non-financial firms in our sample use financial derivatives to hedge their currency, interest rate or commodity price risks. We also found that the volatility caused by the global financial crisis determined many firms to use financial derivatives over the period 2007-2011. Nevertheless, the use of financial derivatives by Romanian non-financial firms is low relative to values registered for other emerging economies. The most important factors that hindered the use of financial derivatives have been the low liquidity of exchange derivatives markets, high hedging costs, and the lack of risk management expertise. The traditional approach of managing risks individually is

  1. The fluctuating gap model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, Xiaobin

    2011-01-15

    The quasi-one-dimensional systems exhibit some unusual phenomenon, such as the Peierls instability, the pseudogap phenomena and the absence of a Fermi-Dirac distribution function line shape in the photoemission spectroscopy. Ever since the discovery of materials with highly anisotropic properties, it has been recognized that fluctuations play an important role above the three-dimensional phase transition. This regime where the precursor fluctuations are presented can be described by the so called fluctuating gap model (FGM) which was derived from the Froehlich Hamiltonian to study the low energy physics of the one-dimensional electron-phonon system. Not only is the FGM of great interest in the context of quasi-one-dimensional materials, liquid metal and spin waves above T{sub c} in ferromagnets, but also in the semiclassical approximation of superconductivity, it is possible to replace the original three-dimensional problem by a directional average over effectively one-dimensional problem which in the weak coupling limit is described by the FGM. In this work, we investigate the FGM in a wide temperature range with different statistics of the order parameter fluctuations. We derive a formally exact solution to this problem and calculate the density of states, the spectral function and the optical conductivity. In our calculation, we show that a Dyson singularity appears in the low energy density of states for Gaussian fluctuations in the commensurate case. In the incommensurate case, there is no such kind of singularity, and the zero frequency density of states varies differently as a function of the correlation lengths for different statistics of the order parameter fluctuations. Using the density of states we calculated with non-Gaussian order parameter fluctuations, we are able to calculate the static spin susceptibility which agrees with the experimental data very well. In the calculation of the spectral functions, we show that as the correlation increases, the

  2. The fluctuating gap model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Xiaobin

    2011-01-01

    The quasi-one-dimensional systems exhibit some unusual phenomenon, such as the Peierls instability, the pseudogap phenomena and the absence of a Fermi-Dirac distribution function line shape in the photoemission spectroscopy. Ever since the discovery of materials with highly anisotropic properties, it has been recognized that fluctuations play an important role above the three-dimensional phase transition. This regime where the precursor fluctuations are presented can be described by the so called fluctuating gap model (FGM) which was derived from the Froehlich Hamiltonian to study the low energy physics of the one-dimensional electron-phonon system. Not only is the FGM of great interest in the context of quasi-one-dimensional materials, liquid metal and spin waves above T c in ferromagnets, but also in the semiclassical approximation of superconductivity, it is possible to replace the original three-dimensional problem by a directional average over effectively one-dimensional problem which in the weak coupling limit is described by the FGM. In this work, we investigate the FGM in a wide temperature range with different statistics of the order parameter fluctuations. We derive a formally exact solution to this problem and calculate the density of states, the spectral function and the optical conductivity. In our calculation, we show that a Dyson singularity appears in the low energy density of states for Gaussian fluctuations in the commensurate case. In the incommensurate case, there is no such kind of singularity, and the zero frequency density of states varies differently as a function of the correlation lengths for different statistics of the order parameter fluctuations. Using the density of states we calculated with non-Gaussian order parameter fluctuations, we are able to calculate the static spin susceptibility which agrees with the experimental data very well. In the calculation of the spectral functions, we show that as the correlation increases, the quasi

  3. Price promotions and marketing within points of sale around high schools in Greece during the 2012 economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charis Girvalaki

    2015-12-01

    Price promotions were noted within the majority of POS close to schools. Aggressive promotional activities may hinder efforts to de-normalize tobacco use, especially during financial crisis when price promotions may pose as more attractive to potential consumers.

  4. Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility

    OpenAIRE

    Enrica Detragiache; Asli Demirgüç-Kunt

    1998-01-01

    The authors study the empirical relationship between banking crises and financial liberalization using a panel of data for 53 countries for 1980-95. They find that banking crises are more likely to occur in liberalized financial systems. But financial liberalization's impact on a fragile banking sector is weaker where the institutional environment is strong--especially where there is respect for the rule of law, a low level of corruption, and good contract enforcement. They examine evidence o...

  5. A remark on the set of arbitrage-free prices in a multi-period model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranjan, Abhishek

    2013-01-01

    We study the convexity property of the set QF of arbitrage ‐ free prices of a multi ‐period financial structure F. The set of arbitrage‐free prices is shown to be a convex cone under conditions on the financial structure F that hold in particular for short ‐ lived assets. Furthermore, we provide ...

  6. NewsMarket 2.0: Analysis of News for Stock Price Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barazzetti, Alessandro; Mastronardi, Rosangela

    Most of the existing financial research tools use a stock's historical price and technical indicators to predict future price trends without taking into account the impact of web news. The recent explosion of demand for information on financial investment management is driving the search for alternative methods of quantitative data analysis.

  7. One TV, One Price?

    OpenAIRE

    Jean Imbs; Haroon Mumtaz; Morten O. Ravn; Hélène Rey

    2009-01-01

    We use a unique dataset on television prices across European countries and regions to investigate the sources of differences in price levels. Our findings are as follows: (i) Quality is a crucial determinant of price differences. Even in an integrated economic zone as Europe, rich economies tend to consume higher quality goods. This effect accounts for the lion’s share of international price dispersion. (ii) Sizable international price differentials subsist even for the same television sets. ...

  8. Value-based pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Netseva-Porcheva Tatyana

    2010-01-01

    The main aim of the paper is to present the value-based pricing. Therefore, the comparison between two approaches of pricing is made - cost-based pricing and value-based pricing. The 'Price sensitively meter' is presented. The other topic of the paper is the perceived value - meaning of the perceived value, the components of perceived value, the determination of perceived value and the increasing of perceived value. In addition, the best company strategies in matrix 'value-cost' are outlined. .

  9. Labor Unions and Asset Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busato, Francesco; Addessi, William

    The paper investigates the nexus between labor and financial markets, focusing on the interaction between labor union behavior in setting wages, firms' investment strategy and asset prices. The way unions set wage claims after observing firm's financial performance increases the volatility of firms......' returns and the riskiness of corporate ownership. To remunerate this higher volatility and stronger risk, firms' equities have to grant high return. This mechanism is able to offer an explanation of for the "equity puzzle", that is it can explain the difference between equity returns and the risk free...... rate. It is a welcome result that the simulated excess return is about the empirical estimate and this result is obtained with a logarithmic specification of the shareholders preferences....

  10. Financial Statements

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    users make on the basis of the financial information. .... IDRC's brand and reputation could impact partner- .... building and to provide internal services in support of the ...... maintains books of accounts, information systems, and financial and management controls that .... The significant accounting policies of the Centre are: a.

  11. FAS 33: accurately recording effects of changing prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sage, L G

    1987-02-01

    FAS 33 addresses the problem of distortion in conventional historical cost financial statements because of changing prices. It requires 1300 business enterprises to report selected changing price data on a supplementary basis. It has been demonstrated that it is also feasible and beneficial for hospitals to present price disclosures as supplementary information to their financial statements. The possible application of FAS 33 is supported on the basis that the accounting and reporting methods of healthcare institutions are similar to the accounting and reporting practices of profit-seeking entities.

  12. Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

  13. Financial assessment of oil palm cultivation on peatland in Selangor, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.N. Noormahayu

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Oil palm plantations on peat soils are generally believed to have greater environmental impacts than those on other soil types. Nonetheless, Malaysia operates substantial incentives to maximise palm oil production, which in practice encourage the establishment of plantations on peatland. This paper explores the social and economic basis of oil palm cultivation on one peatland estate at Sungai Panjang in the state of Selangor, peninsular Malaysia. Data were obtained by conducting a questionnaire survey of 200 farmers who cultivate oil palm on peat soil. Some of the data were cross-tabulated against farmers’ ages in order to identify any age-related trends in education level, the area of land farmed, annual income and knowledge about oil palm cultivation. The Cobb-Douglas production function was used to model the financial output from oil palm in terms of the costs of chemical inputs and labour. The results indicated that cultivation of this crop gives decreasing returns to scale on peatland in Sungai Panjang, and that chemical inputs are more important than labour cost in determining the level of financial output. Finally, the financial viability of oil palm cultivation for farmers was assessed by calculating three financial indicators (NPV, BCR and IRR. This can be a profitable investment so long as growth conditions, costs, selling price and interest rate do not fluctuate substantially. Greater annual returns can be achieved over 20–25 years than over shorter periods, especially of less than 10 years.

  14. New approach of financial volatility duration dynamics by stochastic finite-range interacting voter system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guochao; Wang, Jun

    2017-01-01

    We make an approach on investigating the fluctuation behaviors of financial volatility duration dynamics. A new concept of volatility two-component range intensity (VTRI) is developed, which constitutes the maximal variation range of volatility intensity and shortest passage time of duration, and can quantify the investment risk in financial markets. In an attempt to study and describe the nonlinear complex properties of VTRI, a random agent-based financial price model is developed by the finite-range interacting biased voter system. The autocorrelation behaviors and the power-law scaling behaviors of return time series and VTRI series are investigated. Then, the complexity of VTRI series of the real markets and the proposed model is analyzed by Fuzzy entropy (FuzzyEn) and Lempel-Ziv complexity. In this process, we apply the cross-Fuzzy entropy (C-FuzzyEn) to study the asynchrony of pairs of VTRI series. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model has the similar complex behaviors with the actual markets and indicate that the proposed stock VTRI series analysis and the financial model are meaningful and feasible to some extent.

  15. Complexity and multifractal behaviors of multiscale-continuum percolation financial system for Chinese stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yayun; Wang, Jun; Xu, Kaixuan

    2017-04-01

    A new financial agent-based time series model is developed and investigated by multiscale-continuum percolation system, which can be viewed as an extended version of continuum percolation system. In this financial model, for different parameters of proportion and density, two Poisson point processes (where the radii of points represent the ability of receiving or transmitting information among investors) are applied to model a random stock price process, in an attempt to investigate the fluctuation dynamics of the financial market. To validate its effectiveness and rationality, we compare the statistical behaviors and the multifractal behaviors of the simulated data derived from the proposed model with those of the real stock markets. Further, the multiscale sample entropy analysis is employed to study the complexity of the returns, and the cross-sample entropy analysis is applied to measure the degree of asynchrony of return autocorrelation time series. The empirical results indicate that the proposed financial model can simulate and reproduce some significant characteristics of the real stock markets to a certain extent.

  16. Financial Crisis, openness of the economy and the financial performance of Jordanian listed banks: analytical study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mustafa Abdullah Al Qudah, Dr.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the impact of the world financial crisis and openness of the economy on the financial performance of Jordanian listed banks through the period 2005-2008. Panel data analysis is employed to examine study hypotheses. The results showed that the world financial crisis has a negative and significant impact on the financial performance measured by return on assets, return on equity, earning per share, market share prices, and market value while it has a positive but not significant impact on dividend yields. The study also found that openness of the economy has a positive and significant impact on the financial performance of Jordanian listed banks.

  17. The Nordic financial electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-11-15

    NordREG is a cooperation of the Nordic energy regulators. The mission is to actively promote legal and institutional framework and conditions necessary for developing the Nordic and European electricity markets. The financial market is an important market for market participants to mitigate their risks. By providing tools for risk management, the financial market contributes to the efficient functioning of both wholesale and end-user markets. NordREG decided during 2009 to undertake a study on the Nordic financial electricity market. The aim of the report is to consider whether any improvements can be made to further increase the efficiency of the Nordic financial electricity market in order to secure an optimal price setting in the wholesale and the end-user markets

  18. Modeling the stock price returns volatility using GARCH(1,1) in some Indonesia stock prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awalludin, S. A.; Ulfah, S.; Soro, S.

    2018-01-01

    In the financial field, volatility is one of the key variables to make an appropriate decision. Moreover, modeling volatility is needed in derivative pricing, risk management, and portfolio management. For this reason, this study presented a widely used volatility model so-called GARCH(1,1) for estimating the volatility of daily returns of stock prices of Indonesia from July 2007 to September 2015. The returns can be obtained from stock price by differencing log of the price from one day to the next. Parameters of the model were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After obtaining the volatility, natural cubic spline was employed to study the behaviour of the volatility over the period. The result shows that GARCH(1,1) indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the returns of some Indonesia stock prices.

  19. Essay on Option Pricing, Hedging and Calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    da Silva Ribeiro, André Manuel

    Quantitative finance is concerned about applying mathematics to financial markets.This thesis is a collection of essays that study different problems in this field: How efficient are option price approximations to calibrate a stochastic volatilitymodel? (Chapter 2) How different is the discretely...... of dynamics? (Chapter 5) How can we formulate a simple free-arbitrage model to price correlationswaps? (Chapter 6) A summary of the work presented in this thesis: Approximation Behooves Calibration In this paper we show that calibration based on an expansion approximation for option prices in the Heston...... stochastic volatility model gives stable, accurate, and fast results for S&P500-index option data over the period 2005 to 2009. Discretely Sampled Variance Options: A Stochastic Approximation Approach In this paper, we expand Drimus and Farkas (2012) framework to price variance options on discretely sampled...

  20. ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF PRICING AND TRANSFER PRICING

    OpenAIRE

    TÜNDE VERES

    2011-01-01

    The pricing methods in practice need really complex view of the business situation and depend on the strategy and market position of a company. The structure of a price seems simple: cost plus margin. Both categories are special area in the management accounting. Information about the product costs, the allocation methodologies in cost accounting, the analyzing of revenue and different level of the margin needs information from accounting system. This paper analyzes the pricing methods from m...