Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Random error in cardiovascular meta-analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Albalawi, Zaina; McAlister, Finlay A; Thorlund, Kristian

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Cochrane reviews are viewed as the gold standard in meta-analyses given their efforts to identify and limit systematic error which could cause spurious conclusions. The potential for random error to cause spurious conclusions in meta-analyses is less well appreciated. METHODS: We exam...

A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis to Synthesize the Influence of Contexts of Scaffolding Use on Cognitive Outcomes in STEM Education

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Belland, Brian R.; Walker, Andrew E.; Kim, Nam Ju

2017-01-01

Computer-based scaffolding provides temporary support that enables students to participate in and become more proficient at complex skills like problem solving, argumentation, and evaluation. While meta-analyses have addressed between-subject differences on cognitive outcomes resulting from scaffolding, none has addressed within-subject gains. This leaves much quantitative scaffolding literature not covered by existing meta-analyses. To address this gap, this study used Bayesian network meta-analysis to synthesize within-subjects (pre–post) differences resulting from scaffolding in 56 studies. We generated the posterior distribution using 20,000 Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples. Scaffolding has a consistently strong effect across student populations, STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) disciplines, and assessment levels, and a strong effect when used with most problem-centered instructional models (exception: inquiry-based learning and modeling visualization) and educational levels (exception: secondary education). Results also indicate some promising areas for future scaffolding research, including scaffolding among students with learning disabilities, for whom the effect size was particularly large (ḡ = 3.13). PMID:29200508

Bayesian models and meta analysis for multiple tissue gene expression data following corticosteroid administration

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Kelemen Arpad

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper addresses key biological problems and statistical issues in the analysis of large gene expression data sets that describe systemic temporal response cascades to therapeutic doses in multiple tissues such as liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney from the same animals. Affymetrix time course gene expression data U34A are obtained from three different tissues including kidney, liver and muscle. Our goal is not only to find the concordance of gene in different tissues, identify the common differentially expressed genes over time and also examine the reproducibility of the findings by integrating the results through meta analysis from multiple tissues in order to gain a significant increase in the power of detecting differentially expressed genes over time and to find the differential differences of three tissues responding to the drug. Results and conclusion Bayesian categorical model for estimating the proportion of the 'call' are used for pre-screening genes. Hierarchical Bayesian Mixture Model is further developed for the identifications of differentially expressed genes across time and dynamic clusters. Deviance information criterion is applied to determine the number of components for model comparisons and selections. Bayesian mixture model produces the gene-specific posterior probability of differential/non-differential expression and the 95% credible interval, which is the basis for our further Bayesian meta-inference. Meta-analysis is performed in order to identify commonly expressed genes from multiple tissues that may serve as ideal targets for novel treatment strategies and to integrate the results across separate studies. We have found the common expressed genes in the three tissues. However, the up/down/no regulations of these common genes are different at different time points. Moreover, the most differentially expressed genes were found in the liver, then in kidney, and then in muscle.

An efficient Bayesian meta-analysis approach for studying cross-phenotype genetic associations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arunabha Majumdar

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Simultaneous analysis of genetic associations with multiple phenotypes may reveal shared genetic susceptibility across traits (pleiotropy. For a locus exhibiting overall pleiotropy, it is important to identify which specific traits underlie this association. We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis approach (termed CPBayes that uses summary-level data across multiple phenotypes to simultaneously measure the evidence of aggregate-level pleiotropic association and estimate an optimal subset of traits associated with the risk locus. This method uses a unified Bayesian statistical framework based on a spike and slab prior. CPBayes performs a fully Bayesian analysis by employing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC technique Gibbs sampling. It takes into account heterogeneity in the size and direction of the genetic effects across traits. It can be applied to both cohort data and separate studies of multiple traits having overlapping or non-overlapping subjects. Simulations show that CPBayes can produce higher accuracy in the selection of associated traits underlying a pleiotropic signal than the subset-based meta-analysis ASSET. We used CPBayes to undertake a genome-wide pleiotropic association study of 22 traits in the large Kaiser GERA cohort and detected six independent pleiotropic loci associated with at least two phenotypes. This includes a locus at chromosomal region 1q24.2 which exhibits an association simultaneously with the risk of five different diseases: Dermatophytosis, Hemorrhoids, Iron Deficiency, Osteoporosis and Peripheral Vascular Disease. We provide an R-package 'CPBayes' implementing the proposed method.

Spatial Bayesian latent factor regression modeling of coordinate-based meta-analysis data.

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Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D; Nichols, Thomas E

2018-03-01

Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the article are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to (i) identify areas of consistent activation; and (ii) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterized as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Spatial Bayesian Latent Factor Regression Modeling of Coordinate-based Meta-analysis Data

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Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D.; Nichols, Thomas E.

2017-01-01

Summary Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the paper are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to 1) identify areas of consistent activation; and 2) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterised as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. PMID:28498564

A Microsoft-Excel-based tool for running and critically appraising network meta-analyses—an overview and application of NetMetaXL

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background The use of network meta-analysis has increased dramatically in recent years. WinBUGS, a freely available Bayesian software package, has been the most widely used software package to conduct network meta-analyses. However, the learning curve for WinBUGS can be daunting, especially for new users. Furthermore, critical appraisal of network meta-analyses conducted in WinBUGS can be challenging given its limited data manipulation capabilities and the fact that generation of graphical output from network meta-analyses often relies on different software packages than the analyses themselves. Methods We developed a freely available Microsoft-Excel-based tool called NetMetaXL, programmed in Visual Basic for Applications, which provides an interface for conducting a Bayesian network meta-analysis using WinBUGS from within Microsoft Excel. . This tool allows the user to easily prepare and enter data, set model assumptions, and run the network meta-analysis, with results being automatically displayed in an Excel spreadsheet. It also contains macros that use NetMetaXL’s interface to generate evidence network diagrams, forest plots, league tables of pairwise comparisons, probability plots (rankograms), and inconsistency plots within Microsoft Excel. All figures generated are publication quality, thereby increasing the efficiency of knowledge transfer and manuscript preparation. Results We demonstrate the application of NetMetaXL using data from a network meta-analysis published previously which compares combined resynchronization and implantable defibrillator therapy in left ventricular dysfunction. We replicate results from the previous publication while demonstrating result summaries generated by the software. Conclusions Use of the freely available NetMetaXL successfully demonstrated its ability to make running network meta-analyses more accessible to novice WinBUGS users by allowing analyses to be conducted entirely within Microsoft Excel. NetMetaXL also allows

Publication bias in dermatology systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

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Atakpo, Paul; Vassar, Matt

2016-05-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses in dermatology provide high-level evidence for clinicians and policy makers that influence clinical decision making and treatment guidelines. One methodological problem with systematic reviews is the under representation of unpublished studies. This problem is due in part to publication bias. Omission of statistically non-significant data from meta-analyses may result in overestimation of treatment effect sizes which may lead to clinical consequences. Our goal was to assess whether systematic reviewers in dermatology evaluate and report publication bias. Further, we wanted to conduct our own evaluation of publication bias on meta-analyses that failed to do so. Our study considered systematic reviews and meta-analyses from ten dermatology journals from 2006 to 2016. A PubMed search was conducted, and all full-text articles that met our inclusion criteria were retrieved and coded by the primary author. 293 articles were included in our analysis. Additionally, we formally evaluated publication bias in meta-analyses that failed to do so using trim and fill and cumulative meta-analysis by precision methods. Publication bias was mentioned in 107 articles (36.5%) and was formally evaluated in 64 articles (21.8%). Visual inspection of a funnel plot was the most common method of evaluating publication bias. Publication bias was present in 45 articles (15.3%), not present in 57 articles (19.5%) and not determined in 191 articles (65.2%). Using the trim and fill method, 7 meta-analyses (33.33%) showed evidence of publication bias. Although the trim and fill method only found evidence of publication bias in 7 meta-analyses, the cumulative meta-analysis by precision method found evidence of publication bias in 15 meta-analyses (71.4%). Many of the reviews in our study did not mention or evaluate publication bias. Further, of the 42 articles that stated following PRISMA reporting guidelines, 19 (45.2%) evaluated for publication bias. In

Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis using Polya tree mixture models.

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Branscum, Adam J; Hanson, Timothy E

2008-09-01

Summary. A common goal in meta-analysis is estimation of a single effect measure using data from several studies that are each designed to address the same scientific inquiry. Because studies are typically conducted in geographically disperse locations, recent developments in the statistical analysis of meta-analytic data involve the use of random effects models that account for study-to-study variability attributable to differences in environments, demographics, genetics, and other sources that lead to heterogeneity in populations. Stemming from asymptotic theory, study-specific summary statistics are modeled according to normal distributions with means representing latent true effect measures. A parametric approach subsequently models these latent measures using a normal distribution, which is strictly a convenient modeling assumption absent of theoretical justification. To eliminate the influence of overly restrictive parametric models on inferences, we consider a broader class of random effects distributions. We develop a novel hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric Polya tree mixture (PTM) model. We present methodology for testing the PTM versus a normal random effects model. These methods provide researchers a straightforward approach for conducting a sensitivity analysis of the normality assumption for random effects. An application involving meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies designed to characterize the association between alcohol consumption and breast cancer is presented, which together with results from simulated data highlight the performance of PTMs in the presence of nonnormality of effect measures in the source population.

Pregnancy, thrombophilia, and the risk of a first venous thrombosis : Systematic review and bayesian meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Croles, F. Nanne; Nasserinejad, Kazem; Duvekot, Johannes J.; Kruip, Marieke J. H. A.; Meijer, Karina; Leebeek, Frank W. G.

2017-01-01

Objective: To provide evidence to support updated guidelines for the management of pregnant women with hereditary thrombophilia in order to reduce the risk of a first venous thromboembolism (VTE) in pregnancy. Design: Systematic review and bayesian meta-analysis. Data sources: Embase, Medline, Web

Nonvitamin-K-antagonist oral anticoagulants versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

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Ntaios, George; Papavasileiou, Vasileios; Diener, Hans-Chris; Makaritsis, Konstantinos; Michel, Patrik

2017-08-01

Background In a previous systematic review and meta-analysis, we assessed the efficacy and safety of nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and stroke or transient ischemic attack. Since then, new information became available. Aim The aim of the present work was to update the results of the previous systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We searched PubMed until 24 August 2016 for randomized controlled trials using the following search items: "atrial fibrillation" and "anticoagulation" and "warfarin" and "previous stroke or transient ischemic attack." Eligible studies had to be phase III trials in patients with atrial fibrillation comparing warfarin with nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants currently on the market or with the intention to be brought to the market in North America or Europe. The outcomes assessed in the efficacy analysis included stroke or systemic embolism, stroke, ischemic or unknown stroke, disabling or fatal stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, cardiovascular death, death from any cause, and myocardial infarction. The outcomes assessed in the safety analysis included major bleeding, intracranial bleeding, and major gastrointestinal bleeding. We performed fixed effects analyses on intention-to-treat basis. Results Among 183 potentially eligible articles, four were included in the meta-analysis. In 20,500 patients, compared to warfarin, nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants were associated with a significant reduction of stroke/systemic embolism (relative risk reduction: 13.7%, absolute risk reduction: 0.78%, number needed to treat to prevent one event: 127), hemorrhagic stroke (relative risk reduction: 50.0%, absolute risk reduction: 0.63%, number needed to treat: 157), any stroke (relative risk reduction: 13.1%, absolute risk reduction: 0.7%, number needed to treat: 142), and intracranial hemorrhage (relative risk reduction: 46.1%, absolute risk reduction: 0.88%, number needed

Trial sequential analyses of meta-analyses of complications in laparoscopic vs. small-incision cholecystectomy: more randomized patients are needed

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keus, Frederik; Wetterslev, Jørn; Gluud, Christian

2010-01-01

Conclusions based on meta-analyses of randomized trials carry a status of "truth." Methodological components may identify trials with systematic errors ("bias"). Trial sequential analysis (TSA) evaluates random errors in meta-analysis. We analyzed meta-analyses on laparoscopic vs. small-incision ......Conclusions based on meta-analyses of randomized trials carry a status of "truth." Methodological components may identify trials with systematic errors ("bias"). Trial sequential analysis (TSA) evaluates random errors in meta-analysis. We analyzed meta-analyses on laparoscopic vs. small...

Pregnancy, thrombophilia, and the risk of a first venous thrombosis: systematic review and bayesian meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

F.N. Croles (F. Nanne); K. Nasserinejad (Kazem); J.J. Duvekot (Hans); M.J.H.A. Kruip (Marieke); K. Meijer; F.W.G. Leebeek (Frank)

2017-01-01

textabstractObjective To provide evidence to support updated guidelines for the management of pregnant women with hereditary thrombophilia in order to reduce the risk of a first venous thromboembolism (VTE) in pregnancy.Design Systematic review and bayesian meta-analysis.Data sources Embase,

Multi-level Bayesian analyses for single- and multi-vehicle freeway crashes.

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Yu, Rongjie; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2013-09-01

This study presents multi-level analyses for single- and multi-vehicle crashes on a mountainous freeway. Data from a 15-mile mountainous freeway section on I-70 were investigated. Both aggregate and disaggregate models for the two crash conditions were developed. Five years of crash data were used in the aggregate investigation, while the disaggregate models utilized one year of crash data along with real-time traffic and weather data. For the aggregate analyses, safety performance functions were developed for the purpose of revealing the contributing factors for each crash type. Two methodologies, a Bayesian bivariate Poisson-lognormal model and a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with correlated random effects, were estimated to simultaneously analyze the two crash conditions with consideration of possible correlations. Except for the factors related to geometric characteristics, two exposure parameters (annual average daily traffic and segment length) were included. Two different sets of significant explanatory and exposure variables were identified for the single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) crashes. It was found that the Bayesian bivariate Poisson-lognormal model is superior to the Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model, the former with a substantially lower DIC and more significant variables. In addition to the aggregate analyses, microscopic real-time crash risk evaluation models were developed for the two crash conditions. Multi-level Bayesian logistic regression models were estimated with the random parameters accounting for seasonal variations, crash-unit-level diversity and segment-level random effects capturing unobserved heterogeneity caused by the geometric characteristics. The model results indicate that the effects of the selected variables on crash occurrence vary across seasons and crash units; and that geometric characteristic variables contribute to the segment variations: the more unobserved heterogeneity have been accounted, the better

Systemic antibiotics in the treatment of aggressive periodontitis. A systematic review and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis.

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Rabelo, Cleverton Correa; Feres, Magda; Gonçalves, Cristiane; Figueiredo, Luciene C; Faveri, Marcelo; Tu, Yu-Kang; Chambrone, Leandro

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of systemic antibiotic therapy on the treatment of aggressive periodontitis (AgP). This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the PRISMA statement. The MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL databases were searched up to June 2014 for randomized clinical trials comparing the treatment of subjects with AgP with either scaling and root planing (SRP) alone or associated with systemic antibiotics. Bayesian network meta-analysis was prepared using the Bayesian random-effects hierarchical models and the outcomes reported at 6-month post-treatment. Out of 350 papers identified, 14 studies were eligible. Greater gain in clinical attachment (CA) (mean difference [MD]: 1.08 mm; p benefits in CA gain and PD reduction when SRP was associated with systemic antibiotics. SRP plus systemic antibiotics led to an additional clinical effect compared with SRP alone in the treatment of AgP. Of the antibiotic protocols available for inclusion into the Bayesian network meta-analysis, Mtz and Mtz/Amx provided to the most beneficial outcomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Methodological Quality Assessment of Meta-analyses in Endodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Kattan, Sereen; Lee, Su-Min; Kohli, Meetu R; Setzer, Frank C; Karabucak, Bekir

2018-01-01

The objectives of this review were to assess the methodological quality of published meta-analyses related to endodontics using the assessment of multiple systematic reviews (AMSTAR) tool and to provide a follow-up to previously published reviews. Three electronic databases were searched for eligible studies according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria: Embase via Ovid, The Cochrane Library, and Scopus. The electronic search was amended by a hand search of 6 dental journals (International Endodontic Journal; Journal of Endodontics; Australian Endodontic Journal; Oral Surgery, Oral Medicine, Oral Pathology, Oral Radiology; Endodontics and Dental Traumatology; and Journal of Dental Research). The searches were conducted to include articles published after July 2009, and the deadline for inclusion of the meta-analyses was November 30, 2016. The AMSTAR assessment tool was used to evaluate the methodological quality of all included studies. A total of 36 reports of meta-analyses were included. The overall quality of the meta-analyses reports was found to be medium, with an estimated mean overall AMSTAR score of 7.25 (95% confidence interval, 6.59-7.90). The most poorly assessed areas were providing an a priori design, the assessment of the status of publication, and publication bias. In recent publications in the field of endodontics, the overall quality of the reported meta-analyses is medium according to AMSTAR. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DietaryFish and Long-Chain n-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids Intake and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: A Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fu-Rong Li

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Findings on the association between long-term intake of fish or long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs and risk of atrial fibrillation (AF are inconsistent in observational studies. We conducted a meta-analysis of prospective studies to separately examine the associations between fish consumption and dietary intake of n-3 PUFAs with the risk of AF. A systematic search was conducted in PubMed and Embase to identify relevant studies. Risk estimates were combined using a random-effect model. Seven prospective cohort studies covering 206,811 participants and 12,913 AF cases were eligible. The summary relative risk of AF for the highest vs. lowest category of fish consumption and dietary intake of n-3 PUFAs was 1.01(95% confidence interval: 0.94–1.09 and 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.97–1.09, respectively. These null associations persisted in subgroup and dose-response analyses. There was little evidence of publication bias. This meta-analysis suggests that neither long-term intake of fish, nor of n-3 PUFAs were significantly associated with lower risk of AF.

A case study of discordant overlapping meta-analyses: vitamin d supplements and fracture.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark J Bolland

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Overlapping meta-analyses on the same topic are now very common, and discordant results often occur. To explore why discordant results arise, we examined a common topic for overlapping meta-analyses- vitamin D supplements and fracture. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We identified 24 meta-analyses of vitamin D (with or without calcium and fracture in a PubMed search in October 2013, and analysed a sample of 7 meta-analyses in the highest ranking general medicine journals. We used the AMSTAR tool to assess the quality of the meta-analyses, and compared their methodologies, analytic techniques and results. Applying the AMSTAR tool suggested the meta-analyses were generally of high quality. Despite this, there were important differences in trial selection, data extraction, and analytical methods that were only apparent after detailed assessment. 25 trials were included in at least one meta-analysis. Four meta-analyses included all eligible trials according to the stated inclusion and exclusion criteria, but the other 3 meta-analyses "missed" between 3 and 8 trials, and 2 meta-analyses included apparently ineligible trials. The relative risks used for individual trials differed between meta-analyses for total fracture in 10 of 15 trials, and for hip fracture in 6 of 12 trials, because of different outcome definitions and analytic approaches. The majority of differences (11/16 led to more favourable estimates of vitamin D efficacy compared to estimates derived from unadjusted intention-to-treat analyses using all randomised participants. The conclusions of the meta-analyses were discordant, ranging from strong statements that vitamin D prevents fractures to equally strong statements that vitamin D without calcium does not prevent fractures. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial differences in trial selection, outcome definition and analytic methods between overlapping meta-analyses led to discordant estimates of the efficacy of vitamin D for fracture prevention

Identifying null meta-analyses that are ripe for updating

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Fang Manchun

2003-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background As an increasingly large number of meta-analyses are published, quantitative methods are needed to help clinicians and systematic review teams determine when meta-analyses are not up to date. Methods We propose new methods for determining when non-significant meta-analytic results might be overturned, based on a prediction of the number of participants required in new studies. To guide decision making, we introduce the "new participant ratio", the ratio of the actual number of participants in new studies to the predicted number required to obtain statistical significance. A simulation study was conducted to study the performance of our methods and a real meta-analysis provides further evidence. Results In our three simulation configurations, our diagnostic test for determining whether a meta-analysis is out of date had sensitivity of 55%, 62%, and 49% with corresponding specificity of 85%, 80%, and 90% respectively. Conclusions Simulations suggest that our methods are able to detect out-of-date meta-analyses. These quick and approximate methods show promise for use by systematic review teams to help decide whether to commit the considerable resources required to update a meta-analysis. Further investigation and evaluation of the methods is required before they can be recommended for general use.

Vitamin D and new-onset atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Wei-Ling; Yang, Jun; Yang, Jian; Wang, Hui-Bo; Yang, Chao-Jun; Yang, Ying

2017-11-14

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, which affects 1.5% to 2% of the general population. More than six million Europeans suffer from AF. To research vitamin D levels in the prevention of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF), we conducted a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We focused on the vitamin D levels in the prevention of new-onset AF. The outcomes assessed were vitamin D levels, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and left atrium diameter. Six RCTs ultimately met the inclusion criteria in the meta-analysis. The outcomes of Vitamin D levels (MD = -4.27, 95% CI = -5.20 to-3.34, P = 0.30) in the new-onset AF showed no significant difference. The left atrium diameter (MD = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.48 to 2.60, P new-onset AF and LVEF (MD = -0.92, 95% CI = -1.59 to -0.26, P new-onset AF. Copyright © 2017 Hellenic Society of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meta-analyses on viral hepatitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gluud, Lise L; Gluud, Christian

2009-01-01

This article summarizes the meta-analyses of interventions for viral hepatitis A, B, and C. Some of the interventions assessed are described in small trials with unclear bias control. Other interventions are supported by large, high-quality trials. Although attempts have been made to adjust...

Systematic review and meta-analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dreier, Julie Werenberg; Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo; Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele

2014-01-01

1990 were excluded. RESULTS: The available literature supported an increased risk of adverse offspring health in association with fever during pregnancy. The strongest evidence was available for neural tube defects, congenital heart defects, and oral clefts, in which meta-analyses suggested between a 1...

ScreenBEAM: a novel meta-analysis algorithm for functional genomics screens via Bayesian hierarchical modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Jiyang; Silva, Jose; Califano, Andrea

2016-01-15

Functional genomics (FG) screens, using RNAi or CRISPR technology, have become a standard tool for systematic, genome-wide loss-of-function studies for therapeutic target discovery. As in many large-scale assays, however, off-target effects, variable reagents' potency and experimental noise must be accounted for appropriately control for false positives. Indeed, rigorous statistical analysis of high-throughput FG screening data remains challenging, particularly when integrative analyses are used to combine multiple sh/sgRNAs targeting the same gene in the library. We use large RNAi and CRISPR repositories that are publicly available to evaluate a novel meta-analysis approach for FG screens via Bayesian hierarchical modeling, Screening Bayesian Evaluation and Analysis Method (ScreenBEAM). Results from our analysis show that the proposed strategy, which seamlessly combines all available data, robustly outperforms classical algorithms developed for microarray data sets as well as recent approaches designed for next generation sequencing technologies. Remarkably, the ScreenBEAM algorithm works well even when the quality of FG screens is relatively low, which accounts for about 80-95% of the public datasets. R package and source code are available at: https://github.com/jyyu/ScreenBEAM. ac2248@columbia.edu, jose.silva@mssm.edu, yujiyang@gmail.com Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A systematic review of the quality and impact of anxiety disorder meta-analyses.

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Ipser, Jonathan C; Stein, Dan J

2009-08-01

Meta-analyses are seen as representing the pinnacle of a hierarchy of evidence used to inform clinical practice. Therefore, the potential importance of differences in the rigor with which they are conducted and reported warrants consideration. In this review, we use standardized instruments to describe the scientific and reporting quality of meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials of the treatment of anxiety disorders. We also use traditional and novel metrics of article impact to assess the influence of meta-analyses across a range of research fields in the anxiety disorders. Overall, although the meta-analyses that we examined had some flaws, their quality of reporting was generally acceptable. Neither the scientific nor reporting quality of the meta-analyses was predicted by any of the impact metrics. The finding that treatment meta-analyses were cited less frequently than quantitative reviews of studies in current "hot spots" of research (ie, genetics, imaging) points to the multifactorial nature of citation patterns. A list of the meta-analyses included in this review is available on an evidence-based website of anxiety and trauma-related disorders.

Meta-analysis identifies six new susceptibility loci for atrial fibrillation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ellinor, Patrick T; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Albert, Christine M; Glazer, Nicole L; Ritchie, Marylyn D; Smith, Albert V; Arking, Dan E; Müller-Nurasyid, Martina; Krijthe, Bouwe P; Lubitz, Steven A; Bis, Joshua C; Chung, Mina K; Dörr, Marcus; Ozaki, Kouichi; Roberts, Jason D; Smith, J Gustav; Pfeufer, Arne; Sinner, Moritz F; Lohman, Kurt; Ding, Jingzhong; Smith, Nicholas L; Smith, Jonathan D; Rienstra, Michiel; Rice, Kenneth M; Van Wagoner, David R; Magnani, Jared W; Wakili, Reza; Clauss, Sebastian; Rotter, Jerome I; Steinbeck, Gerhard; Launer, Lenore J; Davies, Robert W; Borkovich, Matthew; Harris, Tamara B; Lin, Honghuang; Völker, Uwe; Völzke, Henry; Milan, David J; Hofman, Albert; Boerwinkle, Eric; Chen, Lin Y; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Voight, Benjamin F; Li, Guo; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Kubo, Michiaki; Tedrow, Usha B; Rose, Lynda M; Ridker, Paul M; Conen, David; Tsunoda, Tatsuhiko; Furukawa, Tetsushi; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Xu, Siyan; Kamatani, Naoyuki; Levy, Daniel; Nakamura, Yusuke; Parvez, Babar; Mahida, Saagar; Furie, Karen L; Rosand, Jonathan; Muhammad, Raafia; Psaty, Bruce M; Meitinger, Thomas; Perz, Siegfried; Wichmann, H-Erich; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Kao, W H Linda; Kathiresan, Sekar; Roden, Dan M; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Rivadeneira, Fernando; McKnight, Barbara; Sjögren, Marketa; Newman, Anne B; Liu, Yongmei; Gollob, Michael H; Melander, Olle; Tanaka, Toshihiro; Stricker, Bruno H Ch; Felix, Stephan B; Alonso, Alvaro; Darbar, Dawood; Barnard, John; Chasman, Daniel I; Heckbert, Susan R; Benjamin, Emelia J; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Kääb, Stefan

Atrial fibrillation is a highly prevalent arrhythmia and a major risk factor for stroke, heart failure and death. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in individuals of European ancestry, including 6,707 with and 52,426 without atrial fibrillation. Six new atrial fibrillation

Accuracy of methods for detecting an irregular pulse and suspected atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Taggar, Jaspal S; Coleman, Tim; Lewis, Sarah; Heneghan, Carl; Jones, Matthew

2016-08-01

Pulse palpation has been recommended as the first step of screening to detect atrial fibrillation. We aimed to determine and compare the accuracy of different methods for detecting pulse irregularities caused by atrial fibrillation. We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and LILACS until 16 March 2015. Two reviewers identified eligible studies, extracted data and appraised quality using the QUADAS-2 instrument. Meta-analysis, using the bivariate hierarchical random effects method, determined average operating points for sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios (PLR, NLR); we constructed summary receiver operating characteristic plots. Twenty-one studies investigated 39 interventions (n = 15,129 pulse assessments) for detecting atrial fibrillation. Compared to 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG) diagnosed atrial fibrillation, blood pressure monitors (BPMs; seven interventions) and non-12-lead ECGs (20 interventions) had the greatest accuracy for detecting pulse irregularities attributable to atrial fibrillation (BPM: sensitivity 0.98 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-1.00), specificity 0.92 (95% CI 0.88-0.95), PLR 12.1 (95% CI 8.2-17.8) and NLR 0.02 (95% CI 0.00-0.09); non-12-lead ECG: sensitivity 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.94), specificity 0.95 (95% CI 0.92-0.97), PLR 20.1 (95% CI 12-33.7), NLR 0.09 (95% CI 0.06-0.14)). There were similar findings for smartphone applications (six interventions) although these studies were small in size. The sensitivity and specificity of pulse palpation (six interventions) were 0.92 (95% CI 0.85-0.96) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.76-0.88), respectively (PLR 5.2 (95% CI 3.8-7.2), NLR 0.1 (95% CI 0.05-0.18)). BPMs and non-12-lead ECG were most accurate for detecting pulse irregularities caused by atrial fibrillation; other technologies may therefore be pragmatic alternatives to pulse palpation for the first step of atrial fibrillation screening. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Observing the observer (I): meta-bayesian models of learning and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Daunizeau, Jean; den Ouden, Hanneke E M; Pessiglione, Matthias; Kiebel, Stefan J; Stephan, Klaas E; Friston, Karl J

2010-12-14

In this paper, we present a generic approach that can be used to infer how subjects make optimal decisions under uncertainty. This approach induces a distinction between a subject's perceptual model, which underlies the representation of a hidden "state of affairs" and a response model, which predicts the ensuing behavioural (or neurophysiological) responses to those inputs. We start with the premise that subjects continuously update a probabilistic representation of the causes of their sensory inputs to optimise their behaviour. In addition, subjects have preferences or goals that guide decisions about actions given the above uncertain representation of these hidden causes or state of affairs. From a Bayesian decision theoretic perspective, uncertain representations are so-called "posterior" beliefs, which are influenced by subjective "prior" beliefs. Preferences and goals are encoded through a "loss" (or "utility") function, which measures the cost incurred by making any admissible decision for any given (hidden) state of affair. By assuming that subjects make optimal decisions on the basis of updated (posterior) beliefs and utility (loss) functions, one can evaluate the likelihood of observed behaviour. Critically, this enables one to "observe the observer", i.e. identify (context- or subject-dependent) prior beliefs and utility-functions using psychophysical or neurophysiological measures. In this paper, we describe the main theoretical components of this meta-Bayesian approach (i.e. a Bayesian treatment of Bayesian decision theoretic predictions). In a companion paper ('Observing the observer (II): deciding when to decide'), we describe a concrete implementation of it and demonstrate its utility by applying it to simulated and real reaction time data from an associative learning task.

Observing the observer (I: meta-bayesian models of learning and decision-making.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean Daunizeau

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present a generic approach that can be used to infer how subjects make optimal decisions under uncertainty. This approach induces a distinction between a subject's perceptual model, which underlies the representation of a hidden "state of affairs" and a response model, which predicts the ensuing behavioural (or neurophysiological responses to those inputs. We start with the premise that subjects continuously update a probabilistic representation of the causes of their sensory inputs to optimise their behaviour. In addition, subjects have preferences or goals that guide decisions about actions given the above uncertain representation of these hidden causes or state of affairs. From a Bayesian decision theoretic perspective, uncertain representations are so-called "posterior" beliefs, which are influenced by subjective "prior" beliefs. Preferences and goals are encoded through a "loss" (or "utility" function, which measures the cost incurred by making any admissible decision for any given (hidden state of affair. By assuming that subjects make optimal decisions on the basis of updated (posterior beliefs and utility (loss functions, one can evaluate the likelihood of observed behaviour. Critically, this enables one to "observe the observer", i.e. identify (context- or subject-dependent prior beliefs and utility-functions using psychophysical or neurophysiological measures. In this paper, we describe the main theoretical components of this meta-Bayesian approach (i.e. a Bayesian treatment of Bayesian decision theoretic predictions. In a companion paper ('Observing the observer (II: deciding when to decide', we describe a concrete implementation of it and demonstrate its utility by applying it to simulated and real reaction time data from an associative learning task.

Less is less: a systematic review of graph use in meta-analyses.

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Schild, Anne H E; Voracek, Martin

2013-09-01

Graphs are an essential part of scientific communication. Complex datasets, of which meta-analyses are textbook examples, benefit the most from visualization. Although a number of graph options for meta-analyses exist, the extent to which these are used was hitherto unclear. A systematic review on graph use in meta-analyses in three disciplines (medicine, psychology, and business) and nine journals was conducted. Interdisciplinary differences, which are mirrored in the respective journals, were revealed, that is, graph use correlates with external factors rather than methodological considerations. There was only limited variation in graph types (with forest plots as the most important representatives), and diagnostic plots were very rare. Although an increase in graph use over time could be observed, it is unlikely that this phenomenon is specific to meta-analyses. There is a gaping discrepancy between available graphic methods and their application in meta-analyses. This may be rooted in a number of factors, namely, (i) insufficient dissemination of new developments, (ii) unsatisfactory implementation in software packages, and (iii) minor attention on graphics in meta-analysis reporting guidelines. Using visualization methods to their full capacity is a further step in using meta-analysis to its full potential. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of reporting bias on meta-analyses of drug trials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hart, Beth; Lundh, Andreas; Bero, Lisa

2012-01-01

To investigate the effect of including unpublished trial outcome data obtained from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on the results of meta-analyses of drug trials.......To investigate the effect of including unpublished trial outcome data obtained from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on the results of meta-analyses of drug trials....

Twenty years of meta-analyses in orthopaedic surgery: has quality kept up with quantity?

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Dijkman, Bernadette G; Abouali, Jihad A K; Kooistra, Bauke W; Conter, Henry J; Poolman, Rudolf W; Kulkarni, Abhaya V; Tornetta, Paul; Bhandari, Mohit

2010-01-01

As the number of studies in the literature is increasing, orthopaedic surgeons highly depend on meta-analyses as their primary source of scientific evidence. The objectives of this review were to assess the scientific quality and number of published meta-analyses on orthopaedics-related topics over time. We conducted, in duplicate and independently, a systematic review of published meta-analyses in orthopaedics in the years 2005 and 2008 and compared them with a previous systematic review of meta-analyses from 1969 to 1999. A search of electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews) was performed to identify meta-analyses published in 2005 and 2008. We searched bibliographies and contacted content experts to identify additional relevant studies. Two investigators independently assessed the quality of the studies, using the Oxman and Guyatt index, and abstracted relevant data. We included forty-five and forty-four meta-analyses from 2005 and 2008, respectively. While the number of meta-analyses increased fivefold from 1999 to 2008, the mean quality score did not change significantly over time (p = 0.067). In the later years, a significantly lower proportion of meta-analyses had methodological flaws (56% in 2005 and 68% in 2008) compared with meta-analyses published prior to 2000 (88%) (p = 0.006). In 2005 and 2008, respectively, 18% and 30% of the meta-analyses had major to extensive flaws in their methodology. Studies from 2008 with positive conclusions used and described appropriate criteria for the validity assessment less often than did those with negative results. The use of random-effects and fixed-effects models as pooling methods became more popular toward 2008. Although the methodological quality of orthopaedic meta-analyses has increased in the past twenty years, a substantial proportion continues to show major to extensive flaws. As the number of published meta-analyses is increasing, a routine checklist for

Meta-Analyses of Human Cell-Based Cardiac Regeneration Therapies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gyöngyösi, Mariann; Wojakowski, Wojciech; Navarese, Eliano P

2016-01-01

In contrast to multiple publication-based meta-analyses involving clinical cardiac regeneration therapy in patients with recent myocardial infarction, a recently published meta-analysis based on individual patient data reported no effect of cell therapy on left ventricular function or clinical...

Predictors of warfarin use in atrial fibrillation in the United States: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Despite warfarin's marked efficacy, not all eligible patients receive it for stroke prevention in AF. The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the association between prescriber and/or patient characteristics and subsequent prescription of warfarin for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods Observational studies conducted in the US using multivariate analysis to determine the relationship between characteristics and the odds of receiving warfarin for stroke prevention were identified in MEDLINE, EMBASE and a manual review of references. Effect estimates of prescriber and/or patient characteristics from individual studies were pooled to calculate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals. Results Twenty-eight studies reporting results of 33 unique multivariate analyses were identified. Warfarin use across studies ranged from 9.1%-79.8% (median = 49.1%). There was a moderately-strong correlation between warfarin use and year of study (r = 0.60, p = 0.002). Upon meta-analysis, characteristics associated with a statistically significant increase in the odds of warfarin use included history of cerebrovascular accident (OR = 1.59), heart failure (OR = 1.36), and male gender (OR = 1.12). Those associated with a significant reduction in the odds of warfarin use included alcohol/drug abuse (OR = 0.62), perceived barriers to compliance (OR = 0.87), contraindication(s) to warfarin (OR = 0.81), dementia (OR = 0.32), falls (OR = 0.60), gastrointestinal hemorrhage (OR = 0.47), intracranial hemorrhage (OR = 0.39), hepatic (OR = 0.59), and renal impairment (OR = 0.69). While age per 10-year increase (OR = 0.78) and advancing age as a dichotomized variable (cut-off varied by study) (OR = 0.57) were associated with significant reductions in warfarin use; qualitative review of results of studies evaluating age as a categorical variable did not confirm this relationship. Conclusions Warfarin use has increased somewhat over time. The

Meta-analyses triggered by previous (false-)significant findings : Problems and solutions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schuit, Ewoud; Roes, Kit C B; Mol, Ben W J; Kwee, Anneke; Moons, Karel G M; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses are typically triggered by a (potentially false-significant) finding in one of the preceding primary studies. We studied consequences of meta-analysis investigating effects when primary studies that triggered such meta-analysis are also included. METHODS: We analytically

Apparently conclusive meta-analyses may be inconclusive--Trial sequential analysis adjustment of random error risk due to repetitive testing of accumulating data in apparently conclusive neonatal meta-analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brok, Jesper; Thorlund, Kristian; Wetterslev, Jørn

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Random error may cause misleading evidence in meta-analyses. The required number of participants in a meta-analysis (i.e. information size) should be at least as large as an adequately powered single trial. Trial sequential analysis (TSA) may reduce risk of random errors due to repeti......BACKGROUND: Random error may cause misleading evidence in meta-analyses. The required number of participants in a meta-analysis (i.e. information size) should be at least as large as an adequately powered single trial. Trial sequential analysis (TSA) may reduce risk of random errors due...

Meta-analyses of HFE variants in coronary heart disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Lian, Jiangfang; Xu, Limin; Huang, Yi; Le, Yanping; Jiang, Danjie; Yang, Xi; Xu, Weifeng; Huang, Xiaoyan; Dong, Changzheng; Ye, Meng; Zhou, Jianqing; Duan, Shiwei

2013-09-15

HFE gene variants can cause hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) that often comes along with an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). The goal of our study is to assess the contribution of four HFE gene variants to the risk of CHD. We conducted four meta-analyses of the studies examining the association between four HFE gene variants and the risk of CHD. A systematic search was conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang Chinese Periodical. Meta-analyses showed that HFE rs1799945-G allele was associated with a 6% increased risk of CHD (P=0.02, odds ratio (OR)=1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.01-1.11). However, no association between the other three HFE gene variants (rs1800562, rs1800730, and rs9366637) and CHD risk was observed by the meta-analyses (all P values>0.05). In addition, the results of our case-control study indicated that rs1800562 and rs1800730 were monomorphic, and that rs1799945 and rs9366637 were not associated with CHD in Han Chinese. Our meta-analysis suggested that a significant association existed between rs1799945 mutation and CHD, although this mutation was rare in Han Chinese. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigation of publication bias in meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy: a meta-epidemiological study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Enst, W. Annefloor; Ochodo, Eleanor; Scholten, Rob J. P. M.; Hooft, Lotty; Leeflang, Mariska M.

2014-01-01

The validity of a meta-analysis can be understood better in light of the possible impact of publication bias. The majority of the methods to investigate publication bias in terms of small study-effects are developed for meta-analyses of intervention studies, leaving authors of diagnostic test

Early Versus Delayed Motion After Rotator Cuff Repair: A Systematic Review of Overlapping Meta-analyses.

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Houck, Darby A; Kraeutler, Matthew J; Schuette, Hayden B; McCarty, Eric C; Bravman, Jonathan T

2017-10-01

Previous meta-analyses have been conducted to compare outcomes of early versus delayed motion after rotator cuff repair. To conduct a systematic review of overlapping meta-analyses comparing early versus delayed motion rehabilitation protocols after rotator cuff repair to determine which meta-analyses provide the best available evidence. Systematic review. A systematic review was performed by searching PubMed and Cochrane Library databases. Search terms included "rotator cuff repair," "early passive motion," "immobilization," "rehabilitation protocol," and "meta-analysis." Results were reviewed to determine study eligibility. Patient outcomes and structural healing were extracted from these meta-analyses. Meta-analysis quality was assessed using the Oxman-Guyatt and Quality of Reporting of Meta-analyses (QUOROM) systems. The Jadad decision algorithm was then used to determine which meta-analyses provided the best level of evidence. Seven meta-analyses containing a total of 5896 patients met the eligibility criteria (1 Level I evidence, 4 Level II evidence, 2 Level III evidence). None of these meta-analyses found immobilization to be superior to early motion; however, most studies suggested that early motion would increase range of motion (ROM), thereby reducing time of recovery. Three of these studies suggested that tear size contributed to the choice of rehabilitation to ensure proper healing of the shoulder. A study by Chan et al in 2014 received the highest QUOROM and Oxman-Guyatt scores, and therefore this meta-analysis appeared to have the highest level of evidence. Additionally, a study by Riboh and Garrigues in 2014 was selected as the highest quality study in this systematic review according to the Jadad decision algorithm. The current, best available evidence suggests that early motion improves ROM after rotator cuff repair but increases the risk of rotator cuff retear. Lower quality meta-analyses indicate that tear size may provide a better strategy in

Homeopathy: meta-analyses of pooled clinical data.

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Hahn, Robert G

2013-01-01

In the first decade of the evidence-based era, which began in the mid-1990s, meta-analyses were used to scrutinize homeopathy for evidence of beneficial effects in medical conditions. In this review, meta-analyses including pooled data from placebo-controlled clinical trials of homeopathy and the aftermath in the form of debate articles were analyzed. In 1997 Klaus Linde and co-workers identified 89 clinical trials that showed an overall odds ratio of 2.45 in favor of homeopathy over placebo. There was a trend toward smaller benefit from studies of the highest quality, but the 10 trials with the highest Jadad score still showed homeopathy had a statistically significant effect. These results challenged academics to perform alternative analyses that, to demonstrate the lack of effect, relied on extensive exclusion of studies, often to the degree that conclusions were based on only 5-10% of the material, or on virtual data. The ultimate argument against homeopathy is the 'funnel plot' published by Aijing Shang's research group in 2005. However, the funnel plot is flawed when applied to a mixture of diseases, because studies with expected strong treatments effects are, for ethical reasons, powered lower than studies with expected weak or unclear treatment effects. To conclude that homeopathy lacks clinical effect, more than 90% of the available clinical trials had to be disregarded. Alternatively, flawed statistical methods had to be applied. Future meta-analyses should focus on the use of homeopathy in specific diseases or groups of diseases instead of pooling data from all clinical trials. © 2013 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Prolonged Cardiac Monitoring to Detect Atrial Fibrillation after Cryptogenic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Dahal, Khagendra; Chapagain, Bikas; Maharjan, Raju; Farah, Hussam W; Nazeer, Ayesha; Lootens, Robert J; Rosenfeld, Alan

2016-07-01

The cause of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) remains unclear after initial cardiac monitoring in approximately one-third of patients. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) showed that the prolonged cardiac monitoring of patients with cryptogenic stroke or TIA increased detection of atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to perform a meta-analysis of all RCTs that evaluated the prolonged monitoring ≥7 days in patients with cryptogenic stroke or TIA. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane CENTRAL, and relevant references for RCTs without language restriction (inception through December 2014) and performed meta-analysis using random effects model. Detection of AF, use of anticoagulation at follow-up, recurrent stroke or TIA, and mortality were major outcomes. Four RCTs with 1149 total patients were included in the meta-analysis. Prolonged cardiac monitoring ≥7 days compared to shorter cardiac monitoring of ≤48 hours duration increased the detection of AF (≥30 seconds duration) in patients after cryptogenic stroke or TIA (13.8% vs. 2.5%; odds ratio [OR], 6.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.50-11.73; P vs. 5.2%; 5.68[3.3-9.77]; P stroke or TIA (0.78[0.40-1.55]; P = 0.48; I(2) , 0%) and mortality (1.33[0.29-6.00]; P = 0.71; I(2) , 0%] were observed between two strategies. Prolonged cardiac monitoring improves detection of atrial fibrillation and anti-coagulation use after cryptogenic stroke or TIA and therefore should be considered instead of shorter duration of cardiac monitoring. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Meta-Meta-Analysis: Empirical Review of Statistical Power, Type I Error Rates, Effect Sizes, and Model Selection of Meta-Analyses Published in Psychology

Science.gov (United States)

Cafri, Guy; Kromrey, Jeffrey D.; Brannick, Michael T.

2010-01-01

This article uses meta-analyses published in "Psychological Bulletin" from 1995 to 2005 to describe meta-analyses in psychology, including examination of statistical power, Type I errors resulting from multiple comparisons, and model choice. Retrospective power estimates indicated that univariate categorical and continuous moderators, individual…

Conducting Meta-Analyses Based on p Values

Science.gov (United States)

van Aert, Robbie C. M.; Wicherts, Jelte M.; van Assen, Marcel A. L. M.

2016-01-01

Because of overwhelming evidence of publication bias in psychology, techniques to correct meta-analytic estimates for such bias are greatly needed. The methodology on which the p-uniform and p-curve methods are based has great promise for providing accurate meta-analytic estimates in the presence of publication bias. However, in this article, we show that in some situations, p-curve behaves erratically, whereas p-uniform may yield implausible estimates of negative effect size. Moreover, we show that (and explain why) p-curve and p-uniform result in overestimation of effect size under moderate-to-large heterogeneity and may yield unpredictable bias when researchers employ p-hacking. We offer hands-on recommendations on applying and interpreting results of meta-analyses in general and p-uniform and p-curve in particular. Both methods as well as traditional methods are applied to a meta-analysis on the effect of weight on judgments of importance. We offer guidance for applying p-uniform or p-curve using R and a user-friendly web application for applying p-uniform. PMID:27694466

Can trial sequential monitoring boundaries reduce spurious inferences from meta-analyses?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorlund, Kristian; Devereaux, P J; Wetterslev, Jørn

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Results from apparently conclusive meta-analyses may be false. A limited number of events from a few small trials and the associated random error may be under-recognized sources of spurious findings. The information size (IS, i.e. number of participants) required for a reliable......-analyses after each included trial and evaluated their results using a conventional statistical criterion (alpha = 0.05) and two-sided Lan-DeMets monitoring boundaries. We examined the proportion of false positive results and important inaccuracies in estimates of treatment effects that resulted from the two...... approaches. RESULTS: Using the random-effects model and final data, 12 of the meta-analyses yielded P > alpha = 0.05, and 21 yielded P alpha = 0.05. The monitoring boundaries eliminated all false positives. Important inaccuracies in estimates were observed in 6 out of 21 meta-analyses using the conventional...

Night shift work and breast cancer risk: what do the meta-analyses tell us?

Science.gov (United States)

Pahwa, Manisha; Labrèche, France; Demers, Paul A

2018-05-22

Objectives This paper aims to compare results, assess the quality, and discuss the implications of recently published meta-analyses of night shift work and breast cancer risk. Methods A comprehensive search was conducted for meta-analyses published from 2007-2017 that included at least one pooled effect size (ES) for breast cancer associated with any night shift work exposure metric and were accompanied by a systematic literature review. Pooled ES from each meta-analysis were ascertained with a focus on ever/never exposure associations. Assessments of heterogeneity and publication bias were also extracted. The AMSTAR 2 checklist was used to evaluate quality. Results Seven meta-analyses, published from 2013-2016, collectively included 30 cohort and case-control studies spanning 1996-2016. Five meta-analyses reported pooled ES for ever/never night shift work exposure; these ranged from 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95-1.03, N=10 cohort studies) to 1.40 (95% CI 1.13-1.73, N=9 high quality studies). Estimates for duration, frequency, and cumulative night shift work exposure were scant and mostly not statistically significant. Meta-analyses of cohort, Asian, and more fully-adjusted studies generally resulted in lower pooled ES than case-control, European, American, or minimally-adjusted studies. Most reported statistically significant between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was not evident in any of the meta-analyses. Only one meta-analysis was strong in critical quality domains. Conclusions Fairly consistent elevated pooled ES were found for ever/never night shift work and breast cancer risk, but results for other shift work exposure metrics were inconclusive. Future evaluations of shift work should incorporate high quality meta-analyses that better appraise individual study quality.

Meta-analyses of the 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms and post-traumatic stress disorder.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Navarro-Mateu

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To conduct a meta-analysis of all published genetic association studies of 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms performed in PTSD cases. METHODS DATA SOURCES: Potential studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science databases (Web of Knowledge, WoK, PsychINFO, PsychArticles and HuGeNet (Human Genome Epidemiology Network up until December 2011. STUDY SELECTION: Published observational studies reporting genotype or allele frequencies of this genetic factor in PTSD cases and in non-PTSD controls were all considered eligible for inclusion in this systematic review. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers selected studies for possible inclusion and extracted data independently following a standardized protocol. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: A biallelic and a triallelic meta-analysis, including the total S and S' frequencies, the dominant (S+/LL and S'+/L'L' and the recessive model (SS/L+ and S'S'/L'+, was performed with a random-effect model to calculate the pooled OR and its corresponding 95% CI. Forest plots and Cochran's Q-Statistic and I(2 index were calculated to check for heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were carried out to analyze potential moderators. Publication bias and quality of reporting were also analyzed. RESULTS: 13 studies met our inclusion criteria, providing a total sample of 1874 patients with PTSD and 7785 controls in the biallelic meta-analyses and 627 and 3524, respectively, in the triallelic. None of the meta-analyses showed evidence of an association between 5-HTTLPR and PTSD but several characteristics (exposure to the same principal stressor for PTSD cases and controls, adjustment for potential confounding variables, blind assessment, study design, type of PTSD, ethnic distribution and Total Quality Score influenced the results in subgroup analyses and meta-regression. There was no evidence of potential publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence does not support a direct effect of 5-HTTLPR

Meta-analyses of the 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms and post-traumatic stress disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Escámez, Teresa; Koenen, Karestan C; Alonso, Jordi; Sánchez-Meca, Julio

2013-01-01

To conduct a meta-analysis of all published genetic association studies of 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms performed in PTSD cases. Potential studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science databases (Web of Knowledge, WoK), PsychINFO, PsychArticles and HuGeNet (Human Genome Epidemiology Network) up until December 2011. Published observational studies reporting genotype or allele frequencies of this genetic factor in PTSD cases and in non-PTSD controls were all considered eligible for inclusion in this systematic review. Two reviewers selected studies for possible inclusion and extracted data independently following a standardized protocol. A biallelic and a triallelic meta-analysis, including the total S and S' frequencies, the dominant (S+/LL and S'+/L'L') and the recessive model (SS/L+ and S'S'/L'+), was performed with a random-effect model to calculate the pooled OR and its corresponding 95% CI. Forest plots and Cochran's Q-Statistic and I(2) index were calculated to check for heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were carried out to analyze potential moderators. Publication bias and quality of reporting were also analyzed. 13 studies met our inclusion criteria, providing a total sample of 1874 patients with PTSD and 7785 controls in the biallelic meta-analyses and 627 and 3524, respectively, in the triallelic. None of the meta-analyses showed evidence of an association between 5-HTTLPR and PTSD but several characteristics (exposure to the same principal stressor for PTSD cases and controls, adjustment for potential confounding variables, blind assessment, study design, type of PTSD, ethnic distribution and Total Quality Score) influenced the results in subgroup analyses and meta-regression. There was no evidence of potential publication bias. Current evidence does not support a direct effect of 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms on PTSD. Further analyses of gene-environment interactions, epigenetic modulation and new studies with large samples

Network meta-analyses performed by contracting companies and commissioned by industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schuit, Ewoud; Ioannidis, John P A

2016-01-01

Background: Industry commissions contracting companies to perform network meta-analysis for health technology assessment (HTA) and reimbursement submissions. Our objective was to estimate the number of network meta-analyses performed by consulting companies contracted by industry, to assess whether

Altered Brain Activity in Unipolar Depression Revisited: Meta-analyses of Neuroimaging Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Veronika I; Cieslik, Edna C; Serbanescu, Ilinca; Laird, Angela R; Fox, Peter T; Eickhoff, Simon B

2017-01-01

During the past 20 years, numerous neuroimaging experiments have investigated aberrant brain activation during cognitive and emotional processing in patients with unipolar depression (UD). The results of those investigations, however, vary considerably; moreover, previous meta-analyses also yielded inconsistent findings. To readdress aberrant brain activation in UD as evidenced by neuroimaging experiments on cognitive and/or emotional processing. Neuroimaging experiments published from January 1, 1997, to October 1, 2015, were identified by a literature search of PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar using different combinations of the terms fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging), PET (positron emission tomography), neural, major depression, depression, major depressive disorder, unipolar depression, dysthymia, emotion, emotional, affective, cognitive, task, memory, working memory, inhibition, control, n-back, and Stroop. Neuroimaging experiments (using fMRI or PET) reporting whole-brain results of group comparisons between adults with UD and healthy control individuals as coordinates in a standard anatomic reference space and using an emotional or/and cognitive challenging task were selected. Coordinates reported to show significant activation differences between UD and healthy controls during emotional or cognitive processing were extracted. By using the revised activation likelihood estimation algorithm, different meta-analyses were calculated. Meta-analyses tested for brain regions consistently found to show aberrant brain activation in UD compared with controls. Analyses were calculated across all emotional processing experiments, all cognitive processing experiments, positive emotion processing, negative emotion processing, experiments using emotional face stimuli, experiments with a sex discrimination task, and memory processing. All meta-analyses were calculated across experiments independent of reporting an increase or decrease of activity in

Trial sequential analysis reveals insufficient information size and potentially false positive results in many meta-analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brok, J.; Thorlund, K.; Gluud, C.

2008-01-01

in 80% (insufficient information size). TSA(15%) and TSA(LBHIS) found that 95% and 91% had absence of evidence. The remaining nonsignificant meta-analyses had evidence of lack of effect. CONCLUSION: TSA reveals insufficient information size and potentially false positive results in many meta......OBJECTIVES: To evaluate meta-analyses with trial sequential analysis (TSA). TSA adjusts for random error risk and provides the required number of participants (information size) in a meta-analysis. Meta-analyses not reaching information size are analyzed with trial sequential monitoring boundaries...... analogous to interim monitoring boundaries in a single trial. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We applied TSA on meta-analyses performed in Cochrane Neonatal reviews. We calculated information sizes and monitoring boundaries with three different anticipated intervention effects of 30% relative risk reduction (TSA...

Does the inclusion of grey literature influence estimates of intervention effectiveness reported in meta-analyses?

Science.gov (United States)

McAuley, L; Pham, B; Tugwell, P; Moher, D

2000-10-07

The inclusion of only a subset of all available evidence in a meta-analysis may introduce biases and threaten its validity; this is particularly likely if the subset of included studies differ from those not included, which may be the case for published and grey literature (unpublished studies, with limited distribution). We set out to examine whether exclusion of grey literature, compared with its inclusion in meta-analysis, provides different estimates of the effectiveness of interventions assessed in randomised trials. From a random sample of 135 meta-analyses, we identified and retrieved 33 publications that included both grey and published primary studies. The 33 publications contributed 41 separate meta-analyses from several disease areas. General characteristics of the meta-analyses and associated studies and outcome data at the trial level were collected. We explored the effects of the inclusion of grey literature on the quantitative results using logistic-regression analyses. 33% of the meta-analyses were found to include some form of grey literature. The grey literature, when included, accounts for between 4.5% and 75% of the studies in a meta-analysis. On average, published work, compared with grey literature, yielded significantly larger estimates of the intervention effect by 15% (ratio of odds ratios=1.15 [95% CI 1.04-1.28]). Excluding abstracts from the analysis further compounded the exaggeration (1.33 [1.10-1.60]). The exclusion of grey literature from meta-analyses can lead to exaggerated estimates of intervention effectiveness. In general, meta-analysts should attempt to identify, retrieve, and include all reports, grey and published, that meet predefined inclusion criteria.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease as a predictor of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yaqiong Zhou

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction : Numerous epidemiologic studies have investigated the link between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD and long-term atrial fibrillation (AF risk, but the results are surprisingly conflicting. Aim : Therefore, we systematically reviewed all published studies assessing the risk of AF in patients with NAFLD and conducted a meta-analysis. Material and methods : We performed a literature search using PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases in February 2017 with no restrictions. Two cohort studies and two cross-sectional studies were identified, involving a total of 5150 subjects (NAFLD: 1655; controls: 3495 in this meta-analysis. Data from selected studies were extracted and a meta-analysis was performed using a random effects model. Results : Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease patients had a significantly higher risk of AF compared to controls (relative risk (RR: 2.61; 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.34–5.06, p = 0.00; I2 = 52.5%, p = 0.097. In a further analysis stratified by presence of type 2 diabetes, the increased risk was present predominantly in patients with type 2 diabetes (RR = 5.10; 95% CI: 2.43–10.7, p < 0.001; I2 = 0, p = 0.958. However, subjects without type 2 diabetes were at slightly increased risk of AF but the relative risk did not reach statistical significance (RR = 1.68; 95% CI: 0.99–2.82, p = 0.05; I2 = 0, p = 0.461. Conclusions : Our meta-analysis suggested that ultrasound-diagnosed NAFLD patients have a significantly higher risk for AF after adjustment for numerous important clinical risk factors for AF. These results need to be confirmed in large prospective studies.

A simple technique investigating baseline heterogeneity helped to eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, Amy; Fairhurst, Caroline; Torgerson, David J

2018-03-01

To perform a worked example of an approach that can be used to identify and remove potentially biased trials from meta-analyses via the analysis of baseline variables. True randomisation produces treatment groups that differ only by chance; therefore, a meta-analysis of a baseline measurement should produce no overall difference and zero heterogeneity. A meta-analysis from the British Medical Journal, known to contain significant heterogeneity and imbalance in baseline age, was chosen. Meta-analyses of baseline variables were performed and trials systematically removed, starting with those with the largest t-statistic, until the I 2 measure of heterogeneity became 0%, then the outcome meta-analysis repeated with only the remaining trials as a sensitivity check. We argue that heterogeneity in a meta-analysis of baseline variables should not exist, and therefore removing trials which contribute to heterogeneity from a meta-analysis will produce a more valid result. In our example none of the overall outcomes changed when studies contributing to heterogeneity were removed. We recommend routine use of this technique, using age and a second baseline variable predictive of outcome for the particular study chosen, to help eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulation-based estimation of mean and standard deviation for meta-analysis via Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC).

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Kwon, Deukwoo; Reis, Isildinha M

2015-08-12

When conducting a meta-analysis of a continuous outcome, estimated means and standard deviations from the selected studies are required in order to obtain an overall estimate of the mean effect and its confidence interval. If these quantities are not directly reported in the publications, they must be estimated from other reported summary statistics, such as the median, the minimum, the maximum, and quartiles. We propose a simulation-based estimation approach using the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) technique for estimating mean and standard deviation based on various sets of summary statistics found in published studies. We conduct a simulation study to compare the proposed ABC method with the existing methods of Hozo et al. (2005), Bland (2015), and Wan et al. (2014). In the estimation of the standard deviation, our ABC method performs better than the other methods when data are generated from skewed or heavy-tailed distributions. The corresponding average relative error (ARE) approaches zero as sample size increases. In data generated from the normal distribution, our ABC performs well. However, the Wan et al. method is best for estimating standard deviation under normal distribution. In the estimation of the mean, our ABC method is best regardless of assumed distribution. ABC is a flexible method for estimating the study-specific mean and standard deviation for meta-analysis, especially with underlying skewed or heavy-tailed distributions. The ABC method can be applied using other reported summary statistics such as the posterior mean and 95 % credible interval when Bayesian analysis has been employed.

Association between C-reactive protein and atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation: a meta-analysis.

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Jiang, Zhouqin; Dai, Limeng; Song, Zhiyuan; Li, Huakang; Shu, Maoqin

2013-09-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with inflammation. Increased serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels are important representatives of an inflammatory state of AF. A variety of studies have evaluated whether increased CRP levels have an association with AF recurrence after catheter ablation. However, the results remain inconsistent, therefore, this meta-analysis was conducted to offer suggestions. Increased baseline CRP have an association with AF recurrence after catheter ablation. Electronic databases including PubMed, Embase, Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, and ScienceDirect were searched until December 31, 2012 for any CRP-associated studies. Overall and subgroup analyses were performed. Standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to evaluate the associations between CRP levels and postablation AF recurrence. Statistical analysis was performed with Review Manager 5.2 and Stata 11.0. Seven available studies were identified, which included 526 patients (179 recurrence vs 347 no recurrence). Overall, increased baseline CRP levels had significant positive association with postablation AF recurrence. The SMD in the CRP levels was 0.65 units (95% CI: 0.30-0.99), and the z-score for overall effect was 3.70 (P = 0.0002). The heterogeneity test showed that there were moderate differences between individual studies (P = 0.006, I(2) = 67%). Metaregression revealed that different sample sizes of studies possibly accounted for the heterogeneity. Positive associations were also found in subgroup analyses based on sample size. When stratifying for ethnicity, similarly significant associations were found in both European (Caucasian) and Asian populations. Investigations demonstrate that baseline CRP levels are greater in patients with postablation AF recurrence. Further studies with larger sample size and delicate design for CRP should be conducted. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Systematic literature reviews and meta-analyses: part 6 of a series on evaluation of scientific publications.

Science.gov (United States)

Ressing, Meike; Blettner, Maria; Klug, Stefanie J

2009-07-01

Because of the rising number of scientific publications, it is important to have a means of jointly summarizing and assessing different studies on a single topic. Systematic literature reviews, meta-analyses of published data, and meta-analyses of individual data (pooled reanalyses) are now being published with increasing frequency. We here describe the essential features of these methods and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. This article is based on a selective literature search. The different types of review and meta-analysis are described, the methods used in each are outlined so that they can be evaluated, and a checklist is given for the assessment of reviews and meta-analyses of scientific articles. Systematic literature reviews provide an overview of the state of research on a given topic and enable an assessment of the quality of individual studies. They also allow the results of different studies to be evaluated together when these are inconsistent. Meta-analyses additionally allow calculation of pooled estimates of an effect. The different types of review and meta-analysis are discussed with examples from the literature on one particular topic. Systematic literature reviews and meta-analyses enable the research findings and treatment effects obtained in different individual studies to be summed up and evaluated.

Meta-Analyses of Predictors of Hope in Adolescents.

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Yarcheski, Adela; Mahon, Noreen E

2016-03-01

The purposes of this study were to identify predictors of hope in the literature reviewed, to use meta-analysis to determine the mean effect size (ES) across studies between each predictor and hope, and to examine four moderators on each predictor-hope relationship. Using preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for the literature reviewed, 77 published studies or doctoral dissertations completed between 1990 and 2012 met the inclusion criteria. Eleven predictors of hope were identified and each predictor in relation to hope was subjected to meta-analysis. Five predictors (positive affect, life satisfaction, optimism, self-esteem, and social support) of hope had large mean ESs, 1 predictor (depression) had a medium ES, 4 predictors (negative affect, stress, academic achievement, and violence) had small ESs, and 1 predictor (gender) had a trivial ES. Findings are interpreted for the 11 predictors in relation to hope. Limitations and conclusions are addressed; future studies are recommended. © The Author(s) 2014.

Estimating the Effective Sample Size of Tree Topologies from Bayesian Phylogenetic Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Lanfear, Robert; Hua, Xia; Warren, Dan L.

2016-01-01

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate posterior distributions of phylogenetic tree topologies and other parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Before making inferences from these distributions, it is important to assess their adequacy. To this end, the effective sample size (ESS) estimates how many truly independent samples of a given parameter the output of the MCMC represents. The ESS of a parameter is frequently much lower than the number of samples taken from the MCMC because sequential samples from the chain can be non-independent due to autocorrelation. Typically, phylogeneticists use a rule of thumb that the ESS of all parameters should be greater than 200. However, we have no method to calculate an ESS of tree topology samples, despite the fact that the tree topology is often the parameter of primary interest and is almost always central to the estimation of other parameters. That is, we lack a method to determine whether we have adequately sampled one of the most important parameters in our analyses. In this study, we address this problem by developing methods to estimate the ESS for tree topologies. We combine these methods with two new diagnostic plots for assessing posterior samples of tree topologies, and compare their performance on simulated and empirical data sets. Combined, the methods we present provide new ways to assess the mixing and convergence of phylogenetic tree topologies in Bayesian MCMC analyses. PMID:27435794

Exercise improves depressive symptoms in older adults: An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

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Catalan-Matamoros, Daniel; Gomez-Conesa, Antonia; Stubbs, Brendon; Vancampfort, Davy

2016-10-30

Late-life depression is a growing public health concern. Exercise may be of added value but the literature remains equivocal. We conducted a systematic overview of meta-analyses and an exploratory pooled analysis of previous meta-analyses to determine the effect of exercise on depression in older adults. Two independent researchers searched Pubmed, CINAHL, Cochrane Plus, PsycArticles, and PsycInfo for meta-analyses on exercise in late-life depression. Methodological quality was assessed using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) Instrument. We pooled effect sizes from previous meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials to determine the effect of exercise on depression in older adults. The systematic review yielded 3 meta-analyses. In total, 16 unique cohorts of 1487 participants were included. The quality of the three included meta-analyses was considered as "moderate" according to AMSTAR scores. No serious adverse events were reported. Compared to controls (n=583), those exercising (n=541) significantly reduced depressive symptoms. Our umbrella review indicates that exercise is safe and efficacious in reducing depressive symptoms in older people. Since exercise has many other known health benefits, it should be considered as a core intervention in the multidisciplinary treatment of older adults experiencing depression. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ain't necessarily so: review and critique of recent meta-analyses of behavioral medicine interventions in health psychology.

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Coyne, James C; Thombs, Brett D; Hagedoorn, Mariet

2010-03-01

We examined four meta-analyses of behavioral interventions for adults (Dixon, Keefe, Scipio, Perri, & Abernethy, 2007; Hoffman, Papas, Chatkoff, & Kerns, 2007; Irwin, Cole, & Nicassio, 2006; and Jacobsen, Donovan, Vadaparampil, & Small, 2007) that have appeared in the Evidence Based Treatment Reviews section of Health Psychology. Narrative review. We applied the following criteria to each meta-analysis: (1) whether each meta-analysis was described accurately, adequately, and transparently in the article; (2) whether there was an adequate attempt to deal with methodological quality of the original trials; (3) the extent to which the meta-analysis depended on small, underpowered studies; and (4) the extent to which the meta-analysis provided valid and useful evidence-based recommendations. Across the four meta-analyses, we identified substantial problems with the transparency and completeness with which these meta-analyses were reported, as well as a dependence on small, underpowered trials of generally poor quality. Results of our exercise raise questions about the clinical validity and utility of the conclusions of these meta-analyses. Results should serve as a wake up call to prospective authors, reviewers, and end-users of meta-analyses now appearing in the literature. Copyright 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Chocolate consumption and risk of atrial fibrillation: Two cohort studies and a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Larsson, Susanna C; Drca, Nikola; Jensen-Urstad, Mats; Wolk, Alicja

2018-01-01

Chocolate consumption has been inconsistently associated with risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). We investigated the association between chocolate consumption and risk of AF in Swedish adults from two cohort studies and conducted a meta-analysis to summarize available evidence from cohort studies on this topic. Our study population comprised 40,009 men from the Cohort of Swedish Men and 32,486 women from the Swedish Mammography Cohort. Incident AF cases were ascertained through linkage with the Swedish National Patient Register. Published cohort studies of chocolate consumption in relation to risk of AF were identified by a PubMed search through September 14, 2017. During a mean follow-up of 14.6 years, AF was diagnosed in 9978 Swedish men and women. Compared with non-consumers, the multivariable hazard ratio of AF for those in the highest category of chocolate consumption (≥3-4 servings/week) was 0.96 (95% CI 0.88-1.04). In a random-effects meta-analysis of 5 cohort studies, including 180,454 participants and 16,356 AF cases, the hazard ratios of AF were 0.97 (95% CI 0.94-1.01) per 2 servings/week increase in chocolate consumption and 0.96 (95% CI 0.90-1.03) for the highest versus lowest category of chocolate consumption. Available data provide no evidence of an association of chocolate consumption with risk of AF. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stuttering, induced fluency, and natural fluency: a hierarchical series of activation likelihood estimation meta-analyses.

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Budde, Kristin S; Barron, Daniel S; Fox, Peter T

2014-12-01

Developmental stuttering is a speech disorder most likely due to a heritable form of developmental dysmyelination impairing the function of the speech-motor system. Speech-induced brain-activation patterns in persons who stutter (PWS) are anomalous in various ways; the consistency of these aberrant patterns is a matter of ongoing debate. Here, we present a hierarchical series of coordinate-based meta-analyses addressing this issue. Two tiers of meta-analyses were performed on a 17-paper dataset (202 PWS; 167 fluent controls). Four large-scale (top-tier) meta-analyses were performed, two for each subject group (PWS and controls). These analyses robustly confirmed the regional effects previously postulated as "neural signatures of stuttering" (Brown, Ingham, Ingham, Laird, & Fox, 2005) and extended this designation to additional regions. Two smaller-scale (lower-tier) meta-analyses refined the interpretation of the large-scale analyses: (1) a between-group contrast targeting differences between PWS and controls (stuttering trait); and (2) a within-group contrast (PWS only) of stuttering with induced fluency (stuttering state). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

False-positive findings in Cochrane meta-analyses with and without application of trial sequential analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Imberger, Georgina; Thorlund, Kristian; Gluud, Christian

2016-01-01

outcome, a negative result and sufficient power. We defined a negative result as one where the 95% CI for the effect included 1.00, a positive result as one where the 95% CI did not include 1.00, and sufficient power as the required information size for 80% power, 5% type 1 error, relative risk reduction...... of 10% or number needed to treat of 100, and control event proportion and heterogeneity taken from the included studies. We re-conducted the meta-analyses, using conventional cumulative techniques, to measure how many false positives would have occurred if these meta-analyses had been updated after each...... new trial. For each false positive, we performed TSA, using three different approaches. RESULTS: We screened 4736 systematic reviews to find 100 meta-analyses that fulfilled our inclusion criteria. Using conventional cumulative meta-analysis, false positives were present in seven of the meta...

A Bayesian network meta-analysis on second-line systemic therapy in advanced gastric cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Xiaofu; Ko, Yoo-Joung; Berry, Scott; Shah, Keya; Lee, Esther; Chan, Kelvin

2017-07-01

It is unclear which regimen is the most efficacious among the available therapies for advanced gastric cancer in the second-line setting. We performed a network meta-analysis to determine their relative benefits. We conducted a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) through the MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases and American Society of Clinical Oncology abstracts up to June 2014 to identify phase III RCTs on advanced gastric cancer in the second-line setting. Overall survival (OS) data were the primary outcome of interest. Hazard ratios (HRs) were extracted from the publications on the basis of reported values or were extracted from survival curves by established methods. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed with WinBUGS to compare all regimens simultaneously. Eight RCTs (2439 patients) were identified and contained extractable data for quantitative analysis. Network meta-analysis showed that paclitaxel plus ramucirumab was superior to single-agent ramucirumab [OS HR 0.51, 95 % credible region (CR) 0.30-0.86], paclitaxel (OS HR 0.81, 95 % CR 0.68-0.96), docetaxel (OS HR 0.56, 95 % CR 0.33-0.94), and irinotecan (OS HR 0.71, 95 % CR 0.52-0.99). Paclitaxel plus ramucirumab also had an 89 % probability of being the best regimen among all these regimens. Single-agent ramucirumab, paclitaxel, docetaxel, and irinotecan were comparable to each other with respect to OS and were superior to best supportive care. This is the first network meta-analysis to compare all second-line regimens reported in phase III gastric cancer trials. The results suggest the paclitaxel plus ramucirumab combination is the most effective therapy and should be the reference regimen for future comparative trials.

Patent foramen ovale closure vs medical therapy for stroke prevention: meta-analysis of randomized trials and review of heterogeneity in meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Udell, Jacob A; Opotowsky, Alexander R; Khairy, Paul; Silversides, Candice K; Gladstone, David J; O'Gara, Patrick T; Landzberg, Michael J

2014-10-01

Patent foramen ovale (PFO) might be a risk factor for unexplained ("cryptogenic") stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). We sought to determine the efficacy and safety of transcatheter PFO closure compared with antithrombotic therapy for secondary prevention of cerebrovascular events among patients with cryptogenic stroke. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of MedLine and Embase (from inception to March 2013) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared transcatheter PFO closure with medical therapy in subjects with cryptogenic stroke. Data were independently extracted on trial conduct quality, baseline characteristics, efficacy, and safety events from published articles and appendices. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the composite of stroke or TIA, and adverse cardiovascular events including atrial fibrillation/flutter were constructed. Three RCTs of 2303 subjects with previous stroke, TIA, or systemic arterial embolism (mean age, 45.7 years; 47.3% women; mean follow-up, 2.6 years) were included. PFO closure did not significantly reduce the risk of recurrent stroke/TIA (3.7% vs 5.2%; RR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.50-1.07; P = 0.10); however, an increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation/flutter was detected (3.8% vs 1.0%; RR, 3.67; 95% CI, 1.95-6.89; P < 0.0001). No significant heterogeneity was detected for any end point among subgroups of patients stratified according to age, sex, index cardiovascular event, device type, interatrial shunt size, and presence of an atrial septal aneurysm (all P interactions ≥ 0.09). Meta-analysis of RCTs that assessed transcatheter PFO closure for secondary prevention of cerebrovascular events in subjects with cryptogenic stroke does not demonstrate benefit compared with antithrombotic therapy, and suggests potential risks. Copyright © 2014 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long working hours as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kivimäki, Mika; Nyberg, Solja T.; Batty, G. David

2017-01-01

long hours (≤55 per week) and those working standard 35-40 h/week. Methods and results In this prospective multi-cohort study from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium, the study population was 85 494 working men and women (mean age 43.4 years...... of atrial fibrillation (10-year cumulative incidence 12.4 per 1000). After adjustment for age, sex and socioeconomic status, individuals working long hours had a 1.4-fold increased risk of atrial fibrillation compared with those working standard hours (hazard ratio = 1.42, 95% CI= 1.13-1.80, P= 0......Aims Studies suggest that people who work long hours are at increased risk of stroke, but the association of long working hours with atrial fibrillation, the most common cardiac arrhythmia and a risk factor for stroke, is unknown. We examined the risk of atrial fibrillation in individuals working...

Using meta-analytic path analysis to test theoretical predictions in health behavior: An illustration based on meta-analyses of the theory of planned behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagger, Martin S; Chan, Derwin K C; Protogerou, Cleo; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L D

2016-08-01

Synthesizing research on social cognitive theories applied to health behavior is an important step in the development of an evidence base of psychological factors as targets for effective behavioral interventions. However, few meta-analyses of research on social cognitive theories in health contexts have conducted simultaneous tests of theoretically-stipulated pattern effects using path analysis. We argue that conducting path analyses of meta-analytic effects among constructs from social cognitive theories is important to test nomological validity, account for mediation effects, and evaluate unique effects of theory constructs independent of past behavior. We illustrate our points by conducting new analyses of two meta-analyses of a popular theory applied to health behaviors, the theory of planned behavior. We conducted meta-analytic path analyses of the theory in two behavioral contexts (alcohol and dietary behaviors) using data from the primary studies included in the original meta-analyses augmented to include intercorrelations among constructs and relations with past behavior missing from the original analysis. Findings supported the nomological validity of the theory and its hypotheses for both behaviors, confirmed important model processes through mediation analysis, demonstrated the attenuating effect of past behavior on theory relations, and provided estimates of the unique effects of theory constructs independent of past behavior. Our analysis illustrates the importance of conducting a simultaneous test of theory-stipulated effects in meta-analyses of social cognitive theories applied to health behavior. We recommend researchers adopt this analytic procedure when synthesizing evidence across primary tests of social cognitive theories in health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Alcohol Use on HCV-Treatment Outcomes with a Comparison of Resampling Methods to Assess Uncertainty in Parameter Estimates.

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Cauthen, Katherine Regina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lambert, Gregory Joseph [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Finley, Patrick D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ross, David [US Dept. of Veterans Affairs, Washington, DC (United States); Chartier, Maggie [US Dept. of Veterans Affairs, Washington, DC (United States); Davey, Victoria J. [US Dept. of Veterans Affairs, Washington, DC (United States)

2015-10-01

There is mounting evidence that alcohol use is significantly linked to lower HCV treatment response rates in interferon-based therapies, though some of the evidence is conflicting. Furthermore, although health care providers recommend reducing or abstaining from alcohol use prior to treatment, many patients do not succeed in doing so. The goal of this meta-analysis was to systematically review and summarize the Englishlanguage literature up through January 30, 2015 regarding the relationship between alcohol use and HCV treatment outcomes, among patients who were not required to abstain from alcohol use in order to receive treatment. Seven pertinent articles studying 1,751 HCV-infected patients were identified. Log-ORs of HCV treatment response for heavy alcohol use and light alcohol use were calculated and compared. We employed a hierarchical Bayesian meta-analytic model to accommodate the small sample size. The summary estimate for the log-OR of HCV treatment response was -0.775 with a 95% credible interval of (-1.397, -0.236). The results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are slightly more conservative compared to those obtained from a boot-strapped, random effects model. We found evidence of heterogeneity (Q = 14.489, p = 0.025), accounting for 60.28% of the variation among log-ORs. Meta-regression to capture the sources of this heterogeneity did not identify any of the covariates investigated as significant. This meta-analysis confirms that heavy alcohol use is associated with decreased HCV treatment response compared to lighter levels of alcohol use. Further research is required to characterize the mechanism by which alcohol use affects HCV treatment response.

Conducting meta-analyses of HIV prevention literatures from a theory-testing perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, K L; Johnson, B T; Carey, M P

2001-09-01

Using illustrations from HIV prevention research, the current article advocates approaching meta-analysis as a theory-testing scientific method rather than as merely a set of rules for quantitative analysis. Like other scientific methods, meta-analysis has central concerns with internal, external, and construct validity. The focus of a meta-analysis should only rarely be merely describing the effects of health promotion, but rather should be on understanding and explaining phenomena and the processes underlying them. The methodological decisions meta-analysts make in conducting reviews should be guided by a consideration of the underlying goals of the review (e.g., simply effect size estimation or, preferably theory testing). From the advocated perspective that a health behavior meta-analyst should test theory, the authors present a number of issues to be considered during the conduct of meta-analyses.

Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

CERN Document Server

Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

2016-01-01

Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

Is the risk of atrial fibrillation higher in athletes than in the general population? A systematic review and meta-analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abdulla, Jawdat; Nielsen, Jens Rokkedal; Abdulla, Jawdat

2009-01-01

AIMS: The aim of this study was to examine by a systematic literature review and meta-analysis whether the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) is higher in athletes compared with not athletes. METHODS AND RESULTS: A comprehensive systematic search was conducted for case-control studies that examined....... There were 147 (23%) vs. 116 (12.5%) cases of AF among athletes compared with controls. The overall risk of AF was significantly higher in athletes than in controls with odds ratio (95% confidence interval)=5.29 (3.57-7.85), P=0.0001, and Z-score=8.08. For heterogeneity, the calculated chi2=2.92, P=0...

Meta-analyses of workplace physical activity and dietary behaviour interventions on weight outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verweij, L.M.; Coffeng, J.; Mechelen, W. van; Proper, K.I.

2011-01-01

This meta-analytic review critically examines the effectiveness of workplace interventions targeting physical activity, dietary behaviour or both on weight outcomes. Data could be extracted from 22 studies published between 1980 and November 2009 for meta-analyses. The GRADE approach was used to

Reporting the results of meta-analyses: a plea for incorporating clinical relevance referring to an example.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartels, Ronald H M A; Donk, Roland D; Verhagen, Wim I M; Hosman, Allard J F; Verbeek, André L M

2017-11-01

The results of meta-analyses are frequently reported, but understanding and interpreting them is difficult for both clinicians and patients. Statistical significances are presented without referring to values that imply clinical relevance. This study aimed to use the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) to rate the clinical relevance of a meta-analysis. This study is a review of the literature. This study is a review of meta-analyses relating to a specific topic, clinical results of cervical arthroplasty. The outcome measure used in the study was the MCID. We performed an extensive literature search of a series of meta-analyses evaluating a similar subject as an example. We searched in Pubmed and Embase through August 9, 2016, and found articles concerning meta-analyses of the clinical outcome of cervical arthroplasty compared with that of anterior cervical discectomy with fusion in cases of cervical degenerative disease. We evaluated the analyses for statistical significance and their relation to MCID. MCID was defined based on results in similar patient groups and a similar disease entity reported in the literature. We identified 21 meta-analyses, only one of which referred to MCID. However, the researchers used an inappropriate measurement scale and, therefore, an incorrect MCID. The majority of the conclusions were based on statistical results without mentioning clinical relevance. The majority of the articles we reviewed drew conclusions based on statistical differences instead of clinical relevance. We recommend introducing the concept of MCID while reporting the results of a meta-analysis, as well as mentioning the explicit scale of the analyzed measurement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental risk factors of pregnancy outcomes: a summary of recent meta-analyses of epidemiological studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Dadvand, Payam; Grellier, James; Martinez, David; Vrijheid, Martine

2013-01-15

Various epidemiological studies have suggested associations between environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes. Some studies have tempted to combine information from various epidemiological studies using meta-analysis. We aimed to describe the methodologies used in these recent meta-analyses of environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes. Furthermore, we aimed to report their main findings. We conducted a bibliographic search with relevant search terms. We obtained and evaluated 16 recent meta-analyses. The number of studies included in each reported meta-analysis varied greatly, with the largest number of studies available for environmental tobacco smoke. Only a small number of the studies reported having followed meta-analysis guidelines or having used a quality rating system. Generally they tested for heterogeneity and publication bias. Publication bias did not occur frequently.The meta-analyses found statistically significant negative associations between environmental tobacco smoke and stillbirth, birth weight and any congenital anomalies; PM2.5 and preterm birth; outdoor air pollution and some congenital anomalies; indoor air pollution from solid fuel use and stillbirth and birth weight; polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) exposure and birth weight; disinfection by-products in water and stillbirth, small for gestational age and some congenital anomalies; occupational exposure to pesticides and solvents and some congenital anomalies; and agent orange and some congenital anomalies. The number of meta-analyses of environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes is small and they vary in methodology. They reported statistically significant associations between environmental exposures such as environmental tobacco smoke, air pollution and chemicals and pregnancy outcomes.

Environmental risk factors of pregnancy outcomes: a summary of recent meta-analyses of epidemiological studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nieuwenhuijsen Mark J

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Various epidemiological studies have suggested associations between environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes. Some studies have tempted to combine information from various epidemiological studies using meta-analysis. We aimed to describe the methodologies used in these recent meta-analyses of environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes. Furthermore, we aimed to report their main findings. Methods We conducted a bibliographic search with relevant search terms. We obtained and evaluated 16 recent meta-analyses. Results The number of studies included in each reported meta-analysis varied greatly, with the largest number of studies available for environmental tobacco smoke. Only a small number of the studies reported having followed meta-analysis guidelines or having used a quality rating system. Generally they tested for heterogeneity and publication bias. Publication bias did not occur frequently. The meta-analyses found statistically significant negative associations between environmental tobacco smoke and stillbirth, birth weight and any congenital anomalies; PM2.5 and preterm birth; outdoor air pollution and some congenital anomalies; indoor air pollution from solid fuel use and stillbirth and birth weight; polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB exposure and birth weight; disinfection by-products in water and stillbirth, small for gestational age and some congenital anomalies; occupational exposure to pesticides and solvents and some congenital anomalies; and agent orange and some congenital anomalies. Conclusions The number of meta-analyses of environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes is small and they vary in methodology. They reported statistically significant associations between environmental exposures such as environmental tobacco smoke, air pollution and chemicals and pregnancy outcomes.

Effect of periodontal treatment on preterm birth rate: a systematic review of meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

López, Néstor J; Uribe, Sergio; Martinez, Benjamín

2015-02-01

Preterm birth is a major cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality in both developed and developing countries. Preterm birth is a highly complex syndrome that includes distinct clinical subtypes in which many different causes may be involved. The results of epidemiological, molecular, microbiological and animal-model studies support a positive association between maternal periodontal disease and preterm birth. However, the results of intervention studies carried out to determine the effect of periodontal treatment on reducing the risk of preterm birth are controversial. This systematic review critically analyzes the methodological issues of meta-analyses of the studies to determine the effect of periodontal treatment to reduce preterm birth. The quality of the individual randomized clinical trials selected is of highest relevance for a systematic review. This article describes the methodological features that should be identified a priori and assessed individually to determine the quality of a randomized controlled trial performed to evaluate the effect of periodontal treatment on pregnancy outcomes. The AMSTAR and the PRISMA checklist tools were used to assess the quality of the six meta-analyses selected, and the bias domain of the Cochrane Collaboration's Tool was applied to evaluate each of the trials included in the meta-analyses. In addition, the methodological characteristics of each clinical trial were assessed. The majority of the trials included in the meta-analyses have significant methodological flaws that threaten their internal validity. The lack of effect of periodontal treatment on preterm birth rate concluded by four meta-analyses, and the positive effect of treatment for reducing preterm birth risk concluded by the remaining two meta-analyses are not based on consistent scientific evidence. Well-conducted randomized controlled trials using rigorous methodology, including appropriate definition of the exposure, adequate control of confounders for

Sizing Up the Milky Way: A Bayesian Mixture Model Meta-analysis of Photometric Scale Length Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Licquia, Timothy C.; Newman, Jeffrey A.

2016-11-01

The exponential scale length (L d ) of the Milky Way’s (MW’s) disk is a critical parameter for describing the global physical size of our Galaxy, important both for interpreting other Galactic measurements and helping us to understand how our Galaxy fits into extragalactic contexts. Unfortunately, current estimates span a wide range of values and are often statistically incompatible with one another. Here, we perform a Bayesian meta-analysis to determine an improved, aggregate estimate for L d , utilizing a mixture-model approach to account for the possibility that any one measurement has not properly accounted for all statistical or systematic errors. Within this machinery, we explore a variety of ways of modeling the nature of problematic measurements, and then employ a Bayesian model averaging technique to derive net posterior distributions that incorporate any model-selection uncertainty. Our meta-analysis combines 29 different (15 visible and 14 infrared) photometric measurements of L d available in the literature; these involve a broad assortment of observational data sets, MW models and assumptions, and methodologies, all tabulated herein. Analyzing the visible and infrared measurements separately yields estimates for L d of {2.71}-0.20+0.22 kpc and {2.51}-0.13+0.15 kpc, respectively, whereas considering them all combined yields 2.64 ± 0.13 kpc. The ratio between the visible and infrared scale lengths determined here is very similar to that measured in external spiral galaxies. We use these results to update the model of the Galactic disk from our previous work, constraining its stellar mass to be {4.8}-1.1+1.5× {10}10 M ⊙, and the MW’s total stellar mass to be {5.7}-1.1+1.5× {10}10 M ⊙.

Evidence of a major gene from Bayesian segregation analyses of liability to osteochondral diseases in pigs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kadarmideen, H.N.; Janss, L.L.G.

2005-01-01

Bayesian segregation analyses were used to investigate the mode of inheritance of osteochondral lesions (osteochondrosis, OC) in pigs. Data consisted of 1163 animals with OC and their pedigrees included 2891 animals. Mixed-inheritance threshold models (MITM) and several variants of MITM, in

Toward understanding insulin fibrillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Brange, J; Andersen, L; Laursen, E D; Meyn, G; Rasmussen, E

1997-05-01

Formation of insulin fibrils is a physical process by which partially unfolded insulin molecules interact with each other to form linear aggregates. Shielding of hydrophobic domains is the main driving force for this process, but formation of intermolecular beta-sheet may further stabilize the fibrillar structure. Conformational displacement of the B-chain C-terminal with exposure of nonpolar, aliphatic core residues, including A2, A3, B11, and B15, plays a crucial role in the fibrillation process. Recent crystal analyses and molecular modeling studies have suggested that when insulin fibrillates this exposed domain interacts with a hydrophobic surface domain formed by the aliphatic residues A13, B6, B14, B17, and B18, normally buried when three insulin dimers form a hexamer. In rabbit immunization experiments, insulin fibrils did not elicit an increased immune response with respect to formation of IgG insulin antibodies when compared with native insulin. In contrast, the IgE response increased with increasing content of insulin in fibrillar form. Strategies and practical approaches to prevent insulin from forming fibrils are reviewed. Stabilization of the insulin hexameric structure and blockage of hydrophobic interfaces by addition of surfactants are the most effective means of counteracting insulin fibrillation.

Novel citation-based search method for scientific literature: application to meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Janssens, A Cecile J W; Gwinn, M

2015-10-13

Finding eligible studies for meta-analysis and systematic reviews relies on keyword-based searching as the gold standard, despite its inefficiency. Searching based on direct citations is not sufficiently comprehensive. We propose a novel strategy that ranks articles on their degree of co-citation with one or more "known" articles before reviewing their eligibility. In two independent studies, we aimed to reproduce the results of literature searches for sets of published meta-analyses (n = 10 and n = 42). For each meta-analysis, we extracted co-citations for the randomly selected 'known' articles from the Web of Science database, counted their frequencies and screened all articles with a score above a selection threshold. In the second study, we extended the method by retrieving direct citations for all selected articles. In the first study, we retrieved 82% of the studies included in the meta-analyses while screening only 11% as many articles as were screened for the original publications. Articles that we missed were published in non-English languages, published before 1975, published very recently, or available only as conference abstracts. In the second study, we retrieved 79% of included studies while screening half the original number of articles. Citation searching appears to be an efficient and reasonably accurate method for finding articles similar to one or more articles of interest for meta-analysis and reviews.

Quality control and conduct of genome-wide association meta-analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winkler, Thomas W; Day, Felix R; Croteau-Chonka, Damien C

2014-01-01

Rigorous organization and quality control (QC) are necessary to facilitate successful genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMAs) of statistics aggregated across multiple genome-wide association studies. This protocol provides guidelines for (i) organizational aspects of GWAMAs, and for (ii) QC...

Prevention of atrial fibrillation by Renin-Angiotensin system inhibition a meta-analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schneider, Markus; Hua, Tsushung A; Böhm, Michael

2010-01-01

The authors reviewed published clinical trial data on the effects of renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibition for the prevention of atrial fibrillation (AF), aiming to define when RAS inhibition is most effective.......The authors reviewed published clinical trial data on the effects of renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibition for the prevention of atrial fibrillation (AF), aiming to define when RAS inhibition is most effective....

A systematic meta-review of evaluations of youth violence prevention programs: Common and divergent findings from 25 years of meta-analyses and systematic reviews☆

Science.gov (United States)

Matjasko, Jennifer L.; Vivolo-Kantor, Alana M.; Massetti, Greta M.; Holland, Kristin M.; Holt, Melissa K.; Cruz, Jason Dela

2018-01-01

Violence among youth is a pervasive public health problem. In order to make progress in reducing the burden of injury and mortality that result from youth violence, it is imperative to identify evidence-based programs and strategies that have a significant impact on violence. There have been many rigorous evaluations of youth violence prevention programs. However, the literature is large, and it is difficult to draw conclusions about what works across evaluations from different disciplines, contexts, and types of programs. The current study reviews the meta-analyses and systematic reviews published prior to 2009 that synthesize evaluations of youth violence prevention programs. This meta-review reports the findings from 37 meta-analyses and 15 systematic reviews; the included reviews were coded on measures of the social ecology, prevention approach, program type, and study design. A majority of the meta-analyses and systematic reviews were found to demonstrate moderate program effects. Meta-analyses yielded marginally smaller effect sizes compared to systematic reviews, and those that included programs targeting family factors showed marginally larger effects than those that did not. In addition, there are a wide range of individual/family, program, and study moderators of program effect sizes. Implications of these findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. PMID:29503594

Robustness assessments are needed to reduce bias in meta-analyses that include zero-event randomized trials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keus, F; Wetterslev, J; Gluud, C

2009-01-01

of statistical method on inference. RESULTS: In seven meta-analyses of seven outcomes from 15 trials, there were zero-event trials in 0 to 71.4% of the trials. We found inconsistency in significance in one of seven outcomes (14%; 95% confidence limit 0.4%-57.9%). There was also considerable variability......OBJECTIVES: Meta-analysis of randomized trials with binary data can use a variety of statistical methods. Zero-event trials may create analytic problems. We explored how different methods may impact inferences from meta-analyses containing zero-event trials. METHODS: Five levels of statistical...... methods are identified for meta-analysis with zero-event trials, leading to numerous data analyses. We used the binary outcomes from our Cochrane review of randomized trials of laparoscopic vs. small-incision cholecystectomy for patients with symptomatic cholecystolithiasis to illustrate the influence...

Characteristics of meta-analyses and their component studies in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews: a cross-sectional, descriptive analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Davey Jonathan

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cochrane systematic reviews collate and summarise studies of the effects of healthcare interventions. The characteristics of these reviews and the meta-analyses and individual studies they contain provide insights into the nature of healthcare research and important context for the development of relevant statistical and other methods. Methods We classified every meta-analysis with at least two studies in every review in the January 2008 issue of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR according to the medical specialty, the types of interventions being compared and the type of outcome. We provide descriptive statistics for numbers of meta-analyses, numbers of component studies and sample sizes of component studies, broken down by these categories. Results We included 2321 reviews containing 22,453 meta-analyses, which themselves consist of data from 112,600 individual studies (which may appear in more than one meta-analysis. Meta-analyses in the areas of gynaecology, pregnancy and childbirth (21%, mental health (13% and respiratory diseases (13% are well represented in the CDSR. Most meta-analyses address drugs, either with a control or placebo group (37% or in a comparison with another drug (25%. The median number of meta-analyses per review is six (inter-quartile range 3 to 12. The median number of studies included in the meta-analyses with at least two studies is three (inter-quartile range 2 to 6. Sample sizes of individual studies range from 2 to 1,242,071, with a median of 91 participants. Discussion It is clear that the numbers of studies eligible for meta-analyses are typically very small for all medical areas, outcomes and interventions covered by Cochrane reviews. This highlights the particular importance of suitable methods for the meta-analysis of small data sets. There was little variation in number of studies per meta-analysis across medical areas, across outcome data types or across types of

A journey into a Mediterranean diet and type 2 diabetes: a systematic review with meta-analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Esposito, Katherine; Maiorino, Maria Ida; Bellastella, Giuseppe; Chiodini, Paolo; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes; Giugliano, Dario

2015-01-01

Objectives To summarise the evidence about the efficacy of a Mediterranean diet on the management of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states. Design A systematic review of all meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the Mediterranean diet with a control diet on the treatment of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states was conducted. Electronic searches were carried out up to January 2015. Trials were included for meta-analyses if they had a control group treated with another diet, if they were of sufficient duration (at least 6 months), and if they had at least 30 participants in each arm. A random-effect model was used to pool data. Participants Adults with or at risk for type 2 diabetes. Interventions Dietary patterns that described themselves as using a ‘Mediterranean’ dietary pattern. Outcome measures The outcomes were glycaemic control, cardiovascular risk factors and remission from the metabolic syndrome. Results From 2824 studies, 8 meta-analyses and 5 RCTs were eligible. A ‘de novo’ meta-analysis of 3 long-term (>6 months) RCTs of the Mediterranean diet and glycaemic control of diabetes favoured the Mediterranean diet as compared with lower fat diets. Another ‘de novo’ meta-analysis of two long-term RCTs showed a 49% increased probability of remission from the metabolic syndrome. 5 meta-analyses showed a favourable effect of the Mediterranean diet, as compared with other diets, on body weight, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. 2 meta-analyses demonstrated that higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet reduced the risk of future diabetes by 19–23%. Conclusions The Mediterranean diet was associated with better glycaemic control and cardiovascular risk factors than control diets, including a lower fat diet, suggesting that it is suitable for the overall management of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26260349

Prokinetics for the treatment of functional dyspepsia: Bayesian network meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Young Joo; Bang, Chang Seok; Baik, Gwang Ho; Park, Tae Young; Shin, Suk Pyo; Suk, Ki Tae; Kim, Dong Joon

2017-06-26

Controversies persist regarding the effect of prokinetics for the treatment of functional dyspepsia (FD). This study aimed to assess the comparative efficacy of prokinetic agents for the treatment of FD. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of prokinetics for the treatment of FD were identified from core databases. Symptom response rates were extracted and analyzed using odds ratios (ORs). A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method in WinBUGS and NetMetaXL. In total, 25 RCTs, which included 4473 patients with FD who were treated with 6 different prokinetics or placebo, were identified and analyzed. Metoclopramide showed the best surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) probability (92.5%), followed by trimebutine (74.5%) and mosapride (63.3%). However, the therapeutic efficacy of metoclopramide was not significantly different from that of trimebutine (OR:1.32, 95% credible interval: 0.27-6.06), mosapride (OR: 1.99, 95% credible interval: 0.87-4.72), or domperidone (OR: 2.04, 95% credible interval: 0.92-4.60). Metoclopramide showed better efficacy than itopride (OR: 2.79, 95% credible interval: 1.29-6.21) and acotiamide (OR: 3.07, 95% credible interval: 1.43-6.75). Domperidone (SUCRA probability 62.9%) showed better efficacy than itopride (OR: 1.37, 95% credible interval: 1.07-1.77) and acotiamide (OR: 1.51, 95% credible interval: 1.04-2.18). Metoclopramide, trimebutine, mosapride, and domperidone showed better efficacy for the treatment of FD than itopride or acotiamide. Considering the adverse events related to metoclopramide or domperidone, the short-term use of these agents or the alternative use of trimebutine or mosapride could be recommended for the symptomatic relief of FD.

[Considerations on the use of meta-analyses in the orientation of knowledge and decisions in Occupational Medicine].

Science.gov (United States)

Catalani, Simona; Berra, Alessandro; Tomasi, Cesare; Romano, Canzio; Pira, Enrico; Garzaro, Giacomo; Apostoli, Pietro

2015-01-01

In recent years, due to the need to elaborate the amount of information available from the scientific literature, the meta-analyses and systematic reviews have become very numerous. The meta-analyses are carried out to evaluate the association between two events when single researches haven't provided comprehensive data. On the other hand, a good meta-analysis must satisfy certain criteria, from the selection of the studies until the evaluation of the outcomes; to this purpose, the application of methods for quality assessment is a crucial point to obtain data of adequate reliability. The aim of this review is to give some introductory tools for a critical approach to meta-analyses and systematic reviews, which have become useful instruments also in occupational medicine.

Apixaban: Effective and Safe in Preventing Thromboembolic Events in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and Renal Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Cortese, Francesca; Scicchitano, Pietro; Gesualdo, Michele; Ricci, Gabriella; Carbonara, Santa; Franchini, Carlo; Pia Schiavone, Brigida Immacolata; Corbo, Filomena; Ciccone, Marco Matteo

2017-11-17

Thromboembolic events, principally stroke, represent one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among subjects with atrial fibrillation. Chronic kidney disease determines a further increase of thromboembolic events, bleeding and mortality and complicates the pharmacological management of patients with atrial fibrillation, mainly due to the side effects of antiarrhythmic and anticoagulant drugs with renal excretion. Apixaban is a new oral anticoagulant characterized by good bioavailability and renal elimination accounting for only 25%, showing a safety profile and effectiveness in patients with renal impairment. In this manuscript, we reviewed literature data on the use of apixaban in the management of non-valvular atrial fibrillation in patients with renal failure, in order to clarify an often-debated topic in clinical practice. A PubMed search was performed on the terms atrial fibrillation, apixaban and renal failure with the aim of identifying relevant manuscripts, large randomized clinical trials, meta-analyses, and current guidelines. Literature data show that apixaban could represent an interesting alternative to warfarin and other selective antagonists of coagulation factors in patients with impaired renal function. About the risk of major bleeding, apixaban appears to be safer than warfarin in the presence of any degree of renal failure. Apixaban show to be an effective anticoagulant in patients with atrial fibrillation, even superior to warfarin in reducing the risk of stroke and systemic embolism regardless of the presence of renal insufficiency. Moreover, Food and Drug Administration allows the use of apixaban in patients with end stage renal disease on hemodialysis. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

A Bayesian network meta-analysis of whole brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiotherapy for brain metastasis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Xi; Liu, Wen-Jie; Li, Bing; Shen, Ze-Tian; Shen, Jun-Shu; Zhu, Xi-Xu

2017-08-01

This study was conducted to compare the effects of whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) and stereotactic radiotherapy (SRS) in treatment of brain metastasis.A systematical retrieval in PubMed and Embase databases was performed for relative literatures on the effects of WBRT and SRS in treatment of brain metastasis. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed by using the ADDIS software. The effect sizes included odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). A random effects model was used for the pooled analysis for all the outcome measures, including 1-year distant control rate, 1-year local control rate, 1-year survival rate, and complication. The consistency was tested by using node-splitting analysis and inconsistency standard deviation. The convergence was estimated according to the Brooks-Gelman-Rubin method.A total of 12 literatures were included in this meta-analysis. WBRT + SRS showed higher 1-year distant control rate than SRS. WBRT + SRS was better for the 1-year local control rate than WBRT. SRS and WBRT + SRS had higher 1-year survival rate than the WBRT. In addition, there was no difference in complication among the three therapies.Comprehensively, WBRT + SRS might be the choice of treatment for brain metastasis.

Weighing Evidence "Steampunk" Style via the Meta-Analyser.

Science.gov (United States)

Bowden, Jack; Jackson, Chris

2016-10-01

The funnel plot is a graphical visualization of summary data estimates from a meta-analysis, and is a useful tool for detecting departures from the standard modeling assumptions. Although perhaps not widely appreciated, a simple extension of the funnel plot can help to facilitate an intuitive interpretation of the mathematics underlying a meta-analysis at a more fundamental level, by equating it to determining the center of mass of a physical system. We used this analogy to explain the concepts of weighing evidence and of biased evidence to a young audience at the Cambridge Science Festival, without recourse to precise definitions or statistical formulas and with a little help from Sherlock Holmes! Following on from the science fair, we have developed an interactive web-application (named the Meta-Analyser) to bring these ideas to a wider audience. We envisage that our application will be a useful tool for researchers when interpreting their data. First, to facilitate a simple understanding of fixed and random effects modeling approaches; second, to assess the importance of outliers; and third, to show the impact of adjusting for small study bias. This final aim is realized by introducing a novel graphical interpretation of the well-known method of Egger regression.

Circulating biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular disease risk; a systematic review and comprehensive overview of meta-analyses.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thijs C van Holten

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is one of the major causes of death worldwide. Assessing the risk for cardiovascular disease is an important aspect in clinical decision making and setting a therapeutic strategy, and the use of serological biomarkers may improve this. Despite an overwhelming number of studies and meta-analyses on biomarkers and cardiovascular disease, there are no comprehensive studies comparing the relevance of each biomarker. We performed a systematic review of meta-analyses on levels of serological biomarkers for atherothrombosis to compare the relevance of the most commonly studied biomarkers. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Medline and Embase were screened on search terms that were related to "arterial ischemic events" and "meta-analyses". The meta-analyses were sorted by patient groups without pre-existing cardiovascular disease, with cardiovascular disease and heterogeneous groups concerning general populations, groups with and without cardiovascular disease, or miscellaneous. These were subsequently sorted by end-point for cardiovascular disease or stroke and summarized in tables. We have identified 85 relevant full text articles, with 214 meta-analyses. Markers for primary cardiovascular events include, from high to low result: C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, the apolipoprotein A/apolipoprotein B ratio, high density lipoprotein, and vitamin D. Markers for secondary cardiovascular events include, from high to low result: cardiac troponins I and T, C-reactive protein, serum creatinine, and cystatin C. For primary stroke, fibrinogen and serum uric acid are strong risk markers. Limitations reside in that there is no acknowledged search strategy for prognostic studies or meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS: For primary cardiovascular events, markers with strong predictive potential are mainly associated with lipids. For secondary cardiovascular events, markers are more associated with ischemia. Fibrinogen is a

Conclusive meta-analyses on antenatal magnesium may be inconclusive! Are we underestimating the risk of random error?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brok, Jesper; Huusom, Lene D; Thorlund, Kristian

2012-01-01

Results from meta-analyses significantly influence clinical practice. Both simulation and empirical studies have demonstrated that the risk of random error (i.e. spurious chance findings) in meta-analyses is much higher than previously anticipated. Hence, authors and users of systematic reviews a...... about the investigated intervention effect(s). We outline the rationale for conducting trial sequential analysis including some examples of the meta-analysis on antenatal magnesium for women at risk of preterm birth....

Efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery when considered over all cancer types: a synthesis of meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Bowater, Russell J; Abdelmalik, Sally M E; Lilford, Richard J

2012-10-01

Despite a large number of clinical trials having been conducted to assess the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery for various cancers, whether it is best to use this treatment remains a generally contentious issue for many common cancers. The purpose of this study was to ascertain whether any general conclusions can be drawn about the efficacy or inefficacy of this treatment within different cancer classifications. Meta-analyses of randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) of adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery were synthesized over as many types of cancer as possible. Data sources were Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane library. Eligible meta-analyses were meta-analyses of RCTs for any type of cancer that compared surgery followed by adjuvant chemotherapy with surgery followed by no adjuvant chemotherapy. The literature search found 25 meta-analyses for 15 cancer types that satisfied the criteria necessary for detailed analysis within this study. The estimates of relative risk for all cause mortality were reported as being less than one (indicating adjuvant chemotherapy is beneficial) by all meta-analyses apart from a meta-analysis for colorectal cancer metastasized to the liver. Moreover, 15 of these meta-analyses also reported that the 95% confidence interval for this relative risk is less than one (indicating statistical significance at the 5% level). The results for all cancer types included in this study except for cancer metastasized to the liver can be thought of as supporting each other through the idea of there being a common treatment effect or at least a common range of effect across all (or most) of these cancer types. For example, with regard to cancer types where the evidence in favor of adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery is only moderately strong, the results of this study may encourage more clinicians to regard the use of this treatment as standard practice.

Grey literature in meta-analyses of randomized trials of health care interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hopewell, S; McDonald, S; Clarke, M; Egger, M

2007-04-18

The inclusion of grey literature (i.e. literature that has not been formally published) in systematic reviews may help to overcome some of the problems of publication bias, which can arise due to the selective availability of data. To review systematically research studies, which have investigated the impact of grey literature in meta-analyses of randomized trials of health care interventions. We searched the Cochrane Methodology Register (The Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2005), MEDLINE (1966 to 20 May 2005), the Science Citation Index (June 2005) and contacted researchers who may have carried out relevant studies. A study was considered eligible for this review if it compared the effect of the inclusion and exclusion of grey literature on the results of a cohort of meta-analyses of randomized trials. Data were extracted from each report independently by two reviewers. The main outcome measure was an estimate of the impact of trials from the grey literature on the pooled effect estimates of the meta-analyses. Information was also collected on the area of health care, the number of meta-analyses, the number of trials, the number of trial participants, the year of publication of the trials, the language and country of publication of the trials, the number and type of grey and published literature, and methodological quality. Five studies met the inclusion criteria. All five studies showed that published trials showed an overall greater treatment effect than grey trials. This difference was statistically significant in one of the five studies. Data could be combined for three of the five studies. This showed that, on average, published trials showed a 9% greater treatment effect than grey trials (ratio of odds ratios for grey versus published trials 1.09; 95% CI 1.03-1.16). Overall there were more published trials included in the meta-analyses than grey trials (median 224 (IQR 108-365) versus 45(IQR 40-102)). Published trials had more participants on average. The most

Long working hours as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation: a multi-cohort study

OpenAIRE

Kivimaki, M.; Nyberg, S. T.; Batty, G. D.; Kawachi, I.; Jokela, M.; Alfredsson, L.; Bjorner, J. B.; Borritz, M.; Burr, H.; Dragano, N.; Fransson, E. I.; Heikkila, K.; Knutsson, A.; Koskenvuo, M.; Kumari, M.

2017-01-01

AIMS: Studies suggest that people who work long hours are at increased risk of stroke, but the association of long working hours with atrial fibrillation, the most common cardiac arrhythmia and a risk factor for stroke, is unknown. We examined the risk of atrial fibrillation in individuals working long hours (≥55 per week) and those working standard 35–40 h/week. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this prospective multi-cohort study from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Work...

A journey into a Mediterranean diet and type 2 diabetes: a systematic review with meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Esposito, Katherine; Maiorino, Maria Ida; Bellastella, Giuseppe; Chiodini, Paolo; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes; Giugliano, Dario

2015-08-10

To summarise the evidence about the efficacy of a Mediterranean diet on the management of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states. A systematic review of all meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the Mediterranean diet with a control diet on the treatment of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states was conducted. Electronic searches were carried out up to January 2015. Trials were included for meta-analyses if they had a control group treated with another diet, if they were of sufficient duration (at least 6 months), and if they had at least 30 participants in each arm. A random-effect model was used to pool data. Adults with or at risk for type 2 diabetes. Dietary patterns that described themselves as using a 'Mediterranean' dietary pattern. The outcomes were glycaemic control, cardiovascular risk factors and remission from the metabolic syndrome. From 2824 studies, 8 meta-analyses and 5 RCTs were eligible. A 'de novo' meta-analysis of 3 long-term (>6 months) RCTs of the Mediterranean diet and glycaemic control of diabetes favoured the Mediterranean diet as compared with lower fat diets. Another 'de novo' meta-analysis of two long-term RCTs showed a 49% increased probability of remission from the metabolic syndrome. 5 meta-analyses showed a favourable effect of the Mediterranean diet, as compared with other diets, on body weight, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. 2 meta-analyses demonstrated that higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet reduced the risk of future diabetes by 19-23%. The Mediterranean diet was associated with better glycaemic control and cardiovascular risk factors than control diets, including a lower fat diet, suggesting that it is suitable for the overall management of type 2 diabetes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The interrelation between hypothyroidism and glaucoma: a critical review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Thvilum, Marianne; Brandt, Frans; Brix, Thomas Heiberg; Hegedüs, Laszlo

2017-12-01

Data on the association between hypothyroidism and glaucoma are conflicting. We sought to shed light on this by conducting a critical review and meta-analyses. The meta-analyses were conducted in adherence with the widely accepted MOOSE guidelines. Using the Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) terms: hypothyroidism, myxoedema and glaucoma or intraocular pressure, case-control studies, cohort studies and cross-sectional studies were identified (PubMed) and reviewed. Using meta-analysis, the relative risk (RR) of coexistence of glaucoma and hypothyroidism was calculated. Based on the literature search, thirteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and could be categorized into two groups based on the exposure. The designs of the studies varied considerably, and there was heterogeneity related to lack of power, weak phenotype classifications and length of follow-up. Eight studies had glaucoma (5757 patients) as exposure and hypothyroidism as outcome. Among these, we found a non-significantly increased risk of hypothyroidism associated with glaucoma (RR 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.97-2.82). Based on five studies (168 006 patients) with hypothyroidism as exposure and glaucoma as outcome, we found the risk of glaucoma to be significantly increased (RR 1.33; 95% CI: 1.13-1.58). Based on these meta-analyses, there seems to be an association between hypothyroidism and glaucoma, which does not seem to be the case between glaucoma and hypothyroidism. However, larger scale studies with better phenotype classification, longer follow-up and taking comorbidity and other biases into consideration are needed to address a potential causal relationship. © 2017 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using meta-analytic path analysis to test theoretical predictions in health behavior: An illustration based on meta-analyses of the theory of planned behavior

OpenAIRE

Hagger, Martin; Chan, Dervin K. C.; Protogerou, Cleo; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L. D.

2016-01-01

Objective Synthesizing research on social cognitive theories applied to health behavior is an important step in the development of an evidence base of psychological factors as targets for effective behavioral interventions. However, few meta-analyses of research on social cognitive theories in health contexts have conducted simultaneous tests of theoretically-stipulated pattern effects using path analysis. We argue that conducting path analyses of meta-analytic effects among constructs fr...

Oral Chinese proprietary medicine for angina pectoris: an overview of systematic reviews/meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Jing; Xu, Hao; Yang, Guoyan; Qiu, Yu; Liu, Jianping; Chen, Keji

2014-08-01

Oral Chinese proprietary medicine (CPM) is commonly used to treat angina pectoris, and many relevant systematic reviews/meta-analyses are available. However, these reviews have not been systematically summarized and evaluated. We conducted an overview of these reviews, and explored their methodological and reporting quality to inform both practice and further research. We included systematic reviews/meta-analyses on oral CPM in treating angina until March 2013 by searching PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library and four Chinese databases. We extracted data according to a pre-designed form, and assessed the methodological and reporting characteristics of the reviews in terms of AMSTAR and PRISMA respectively. Most of the data analyses were descriptive. 36 systematic reviews/meta-analyses involving over 82,105 participants with angina reviewing 13 kinds of oral CPM were included. The main outcomes assessed in the reviews were surrogate outcomes (34/36, 94.4%), adverse events (31/36, 86.1%), and symptoms (30/36, 83.3%). Six reviews (6/36, 16.7%) drew definitely positive conclusions, while the others suggested potential benefits in the symptoms, electrocardiogram, and adverse events. The overall methodological and reporting quality of the reviews was limited, with many serious flaws such as the lack of review protocol and incomprehensive literature searches. Though many systematic reviews/meta-analyses on oral CPM for angina suggested potential benefits or definitely positive effects, stakeholders should interpret the findings of these reviews with caution, considering the overall limited methodological and reporting quality. We recommend further studies should be appropriately conducted and systematic reviews reported according to PRISMA standard. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genome-wide meta-analyses identify multiple loci associated with smoking behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H. Furberg (Helena); Y. Kim (Yunjung); J. Dackor (Jennifer); E.A. Boerwinkle (Eric); N. Franceschini (Nora); D. Ardissino (Diego); L. Bernardinelli (Luisa); P.M. Mannucci (Pier); F. Mauri (Francesco); P.A. Merlini (Piera); D. Absher (Devin); T.L. Assimes (Themistocles); S.P. Fortmann (Stephen); C. Iribarren (Carlos); J.W. Knowles (Joshua); T. Quertermous (Thomas); L. Ferrucci (Luigi); T. Tanaka (Toshiko); J.C. Bis (Joshua); T. Haritunians (Talin); B. McKnight (Barbara); B.M. Psaty (Bruce); K.D. Taylor (Kent); E.L. Thacker (Evan); P. Almgren (Peter); L. Groop (Leif); C. Ladenvall (Claes); M. Boehnke (Michael); A.U. Jackson (Anne); K.L. Mohlke (Karen); H.M. Stringham (Heather); J. Tuomilehto (Jaakko); E.J. Benjamin (Emelia); S.J. Hwang; D. Levy (Daniel); S.R. Preis; R.S. Vasan (Ramachandran Srini); J. Duan (Jubao); P.V. Gejman (Pablo); D.F. Levinson (Douglas); A.R. Sanders (Alan); J. Shi (Jianxin); E.H. Lips (Esther); J.D. McKay (James); A. Agudo (Antonio); L. Barzan (Luigi); V. Bencko (Vladimir); S. Benhamou (Simone); X. Castellsagué (Xavier); C. Canova (Cristina); D.I. Conway (David); E. Fabianova (Eleonora); L. Foretova (Lenka); V. Janout (Vladimir); C.M. Healy (Claire); I. Holcátová (Ivana); K. Kjaerheim (Kristina); P. Lagiou; J. Lissowska (Jolanta); R. Lowry (Ray); T.V. MacFarlane (Tatiana); D. Mates (Dana); L. Richiardi (Lorenzo); P. Rudnai (Peter); N. Szeszenia-Dabrowska (Neonilia); D. Zaridze; A. Znaor (Ariana); M. Lathrop (Mark); P. Brennan (Paul); S. Bandinelli (Stefania); T.M. Frayling (Timothy); J.M. Guralnik (Jack); Y. Milaneschi (Yuri); J.R.B. Perry (John); D. Altshuler (David); R. Elosua (Roberto); S. Kathiresan (Sekar); G. Lucas (Gavin); O. Melander (Olle); V. Salomaa (Veikko); S.M. Schwartz (Stephen); B.F. Voight (Benjamin); B.W.J.H. Penninx (Brenda); J.H. Smit (Johannes); N. Vogelzangs (Nicole); D.I. Boomsma (Dorret); E.J.C. de Geus (Eco); J.M. Vink (Jacqueline); G.A.H.M. Willemsen (Gonneke); S.J. Chanock (Stephen); F. Gu (Fangyi); S.E. Hankinson (Susan); D. Hunter (David); A. Hofman (Albert); H.W. Tiemeier (Henning); A.G. Uitterlinden (André); P. Tikka-Kleemola (Päivi); S. Walter (Stefan); D.I. Chasman (Daniel); B.M. Everett (Brendan); G. Pare (Guillaume); P.M. Ridker (Paul); M.D. Li (Ming); H.H. Maes (Hermine); J. Audrain-Mcgovern (Janet); D. Posthuma (Danielle); L.M. Thornton (Laura); C. Lerman (Caryn); J. Kaprio (Jaakko); J.E. Rose (Jed); J.P.A. Ioannidis (John); P. Kraft (Peter); D.Y. Lin (Dan); P.F. Sullivan (Patrick); C.J. O'Donnell (Christopher)

2010-01-01

textabstractConsistent but indirect evidence has implicated genetic factors in smoking behavior. We report meta-analyses of several smoking phenotypes within cohorts of the Tobacco and Genetics Consortium (n = 74,053). We also partnered with the European Network of Genetic and Genomic Epidemiology

Estimating required information size by quantifying diversity in random-effects model meta-analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wetterslev, Jørn; Thorlund, Kristian; Brok, Jesper

2009-01-01

an intervention effect suggested by trials with low-risk of bias. METHODS: Information size calculations need to consider the total model variance in a meta-analysis to control type I and type II errors. Here, we derive an adjusting factor for the required information size under any random-effects model meta......-analysis. RESULTS: We devise a measure of diversity (D2) in a meta-analysis, which is the relative variance reduction when the meta-analysis model is changed from a random-effects into a fixed-effect model. D2 is the percentage that the between-trial variability constitutes of the sum of the between...... and interpreted using several simulations and clinical examples. In addition we show mathematically that diversity is equal to or greater than inconsistency, that is D2 >or= I2, for all meta-analyses. CONCLUSION: We conclude that D2 seems a better alternative than I2 to consider model variation in any random...

Contour plot assessment of existing meta-analyses confirms robust association of statin use and acute kidney injury risk.

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Chevance, Aurélie; Schuster, Tibor; Steele, Russell; Ternès, Nils; Platt, Robert W

2015-10-01

Robustness of an existing meta-analysis can justify decisions on whether to conduct an additional study addressing the same research question. We illustrate the graphical assessment of the potential impact of an additional study on an existing meta-analysis using published data on statin use and the risk of acute kidney injury. A previously proposed graphical augmentation approach is used to assess the sensitivity of the current test and heterogeneity statistics extracted from existing meta-analysis data. In addition, we extended the graphical augmentation approach to assess potential changes in the pooled effect estimate after updating a current meta-analysis and applied the three graphical contour definitions to data from meta-analyses on statin use and acute kidney injury risk. In the considered example data, the pooled effect estimates and heterogeneity indices demonstrated to be considerably robust to the addition of a future study. Supportingly, for some previously inconclusive meta-analyses, a study update might yield statistically significant kidney injury risk increase associated with higher statin exposure. The illustrated contour approach should become a standard tool for the assessment of the robustness of meta-analyses. It can guide decisions on whether to conduct additional studies addressing a relevant research question. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison Between Bayesian and Maximum Entropy Analyses of Flow Networks†

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Steven H. Waldrip

2017-02-01

Full Text Available We compare the application of Bayesian inference and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt method for the analysis of flow networks, such as water, electrical and transport networks. The two methods have the advantage of allowing a probabilistic prediction of flow rates and other variables, when there is insufficient information to obtain a deterministic solution, and also allow the effects of uncertainty to be included. Both methods of inference update a prior to a posterior probability density function (pdf by the inclusion of new information, in the form of data or constraints. The MaxEnt method maximises an entropy function subject to constraints, using the method of Lagrange multipliers,to give the posterior, while the Bayesian method finds its posterior by multiplying the prior with likelihood functions incorporating the measured data. In this study, we examine MaxEnt using soft constraints, either included in the prior or as probabilistic constraints, in addition to standard moment constraints. We show that when the prior is Gaussian,both Bayesian inference and the MaxEnt method with soft prior constraints give the same posterior means, but their covariances are different. In the Bayesian method, the interactions between variables are applied through the likelihood function, using second or higher-order cross-terms within the posterior pdf. In contrast, the MaxEnt method incorporates interactions between variables using Lagrange multipliers, avoiding second-order correlation terms in the posterior covariance. The MaxEnt method with soft prior constraints, therefore, has a numerical advantage over Bayesian inference, in that the covariance terms are avoided in its integrations. The second MaxEnt method with soft probabilistic constraints is shown to give posterior means of similar, but not identical, structure to the other two methods, due to its different formulation.

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

Science.gov (United States)

Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Dealing with missing standard deviation and mean values in meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Weir, Christopher J; Butcher, Isabella; Assi, Valentina; Lewis, Stephanie C; Murray, Gordon D; Langhorne, Peter; Brady, Marian C

2018-03-07

Rigorous, informative meta-analyses rely on availability of appropriate summary statistics or individual participant data. For continuous outcomes, especially those with naturally skewed distributions, summary information on the mean or variability often goes unreported. While full reporting of original trial data is the ideal, we sought to identify methods for handling unreported mean or variability summary statistics in meta-analysis. We undertook two systematic literature reviews to identify methodological approaches used to deal with missing mean or variability summary statistics. Five electronic databases were searched, in addition to the Cochrane Colloquium abstract books and the Cochrane Statistics Methods Group mailing list archive. We also conducted cited reference searching and emailed topic experts to identify recent methodological developments. Details recorded included the description of the method, the information required to implement the method, any underlying assumptions and whether the method could be readily applied in standard statistical software. We provided a summary description of the methods identified, illustrating selected methods in example meta-analysis scenarios. For missing standard deviations (SDs), following screening of 503 articles, fifteen methods were identified in addition to those reported in a previous review. These included Bayesian hierarchical modelling at the meta-analysis level; summary statistic level imputation based on observed SD values from other trials in the meta-analysis; a practical approximation based on the range; and algebraic estimation of the SD based on other summary statistics. Following screening of 1124 articles for methods estimating the mean, one approximate Bayesian computation approach and three papers based on alternative summary statistics were identified. Illustrative meta-analyses showed that when replacing a missing SD the approximation using the range minimised loss of precision and generally

Meta-connectomics: human brain network and connectivity meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Crossley, N A; Fox, P T; Bullmore, E T

2016-04-01

Abnormal brain connectivity or network dysfunction has been suggested as a paradigm to understand several psychiatric disorders. We here review the use of novel meta-analytic approaches in neuroscience that go beyond a summary description of existing results by applying network analysis methods to previously published studies and/or publicly accessible databases. We define this strategy of combining connectivity with other brain characteristics as 'meta-connectomics'. For example, we show how network analysis of task-based neuroimaging studies has been used to infer functional co-activation from primary data on regional activations. This approach has been able to relate cognition to functional network topology, demonstrating that the brain is composed of cognitively specialized functional subnetworks or modules, linked by a rich club of cognitively generalized regions that mediate many inter-modular connections. Another major application of meta-connectomics has been efforts to link meta-analytic maps of disorder-related abnormalities or MRI 'lesions' to the complex topology of the normative connectome. This work has highlighted the general importance of network hubs as hotspots for concentration of cortical grey-matter deficits in schizophrenia, Alzheimer's disease and other disorders. Finally, we show how by incorporating cellular and transcriptional data on individual nodes with network models of the connectome, studies have begun to elucidate the microscopic mechanisms underpinning the macroscopic organization of whole-brain networks. We argue that meta-connectomics is an exciting field, providing robust and integrative insights into brain organization that will likely play an important future role in consolidating network models of psychiatric disorders.

Comparison of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions to prevent delirium in critically ill patients: a protocol for a systematic review incorporating network meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Burry, L D; Hutton, B; Guenette, M; Williamson, D; Mehta, S; Egerod, I; Kanji, S; Adhikari, N K; Moher, D; Martin, C M; Rose, L

2016-09-08

Delirium is characterized by acute changes in mental status including inattention, disorganized thinking, and altered level of consciousness, and is highly prevalent in critically ill adults. Delirium has adverse consequences for both patients and the healthcare system; however, at this time, no effective treatment exists. The identification of effective prevention strategies is therefore a clinical and research imperative. An important limitation of previous reviews of delirium prevention is that interventions were considered in isolation and only direct evidence was used. Our systematic review will synthesize all existing data using network meta-analysis, a powerful statistical approach that enables synthesis of both direct and indirect evidence. We will search Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science from 1980 to March 2016. We will search the PROSPERO registry for protocols and the Cochrane Library for published systematic reviews. We will examine reference lists of pertinent reviews and search grey literature and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform for unpublished studies and ongoing trials. We will include randomized and quasi-randomized trials of critically ill adults evaluating any pharmacological, non-pharmacological, or multi-component intervention for delirium prevention, administered in or prior to (i.e., peri-operatively) transfer to the ICU. Two authors will independently screen search results and extract data from eligible studies. Risk of bias assessments will be completed on all included studies. To inform our network meta-analysis, we will first conduct conventional pair-wise meta-analyses for primary and secondary outcomes using random-effects models. We will generate our network meta-analysis using a Bayesian framework, assuming a common heterogeneity parameter across all comparisons, and accounting for correlations in multi-arm studies. We will perform analyses using WinBUGS software. This systematic review

How can my research paper be useful for future meta-analyses on forest restoration practices?

Science.gov (United States)

Enrique Andivia; Pedro Villar‑Salvador; Juan A. Oliet; Jaime Puertolas; R. Kasten Dumroese

2018-01-01

Statistical meta-analysis is a powerful and useful tool to quantitatively synthesize the information conveyed in published studies on a particular topic. It allows identifying and quantifying overall patterns and exploring causes of variation. The inclusion of published works in meta-analyses requires, however, a minimum quality standard of the reported data and...

Left ventricular ejection fraction and left atrium diameter related to new-onset atrial fibrillation following acute myocardial infarction: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Rui-Xiang; Chen, Mao-Sheng; Lian, Bao-Tao; Liao, Peng-Da; Zhang, Min-Zhou

2017-10-06

New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) occurs frequently in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and is associated with increased subsequent cardiovascular mortality. However, only a few studies directly evaluated the relationship of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) or left atrium diameter (LAD) and NOAF following AMI. MEDLINE ® , EMBASE ® and the Cochrane Library were carried out to find studies until January 2017. Pooled mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to evaluate the value of LVEF and LAD in the prediction of NOAF after AMI. We performed sensitivity analyses to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity. Statistical analyses were carried out using the Revman 5.3. We included 10 qualifying studies comprising a total of 708 patients with NOAF and 6785 controls. Overall, decreased LVEF and increased LAD levels had a significant positive association with NOAF in patients with AMI. The MD in the LVEF levels between the patients with and those without NOAF was -4.91 units (95% Cl: -5.70 to -4.12), test for overall effect z-score = 12.18 ( p < 0.00001, I 2 = 35%). Moreover, in a subgroup analysis, the MD for LAD and NOAF was 2.55 units (95% Cl: 1.91 to 3.19), test for overall effect z-score = 7.80 ( p < 0.00001, I 2 = 57%). Our meta-analysis demonstrated that both decreased LVEF and increased LAD levels were associated with greater risk of NOAF following AMI.

Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

The effect of English-language restriction on systematic review-based meta-analyses: a systematic review of empirical studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrison, Andra; Polisena, Julie; Husereau, Don; Moulton, Kristen; Clark, Michelle; Fiander, Michelle; Mierzwinski-Urban, Monika; Clifford, Tammy; Hutton, Brian; Rabb, Danielle

2012-04-01

The English language is generally perceived to be the universal language of science. However, the exclusive reliance on English-language studies may not represent all of the evidence. Excluding languages other than English (LOE) may introduce a language bias and lead to erroneous conclusions. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using bibliographic databases and grey literature sources. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they measured the effect of excluding randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reported in LOE from systematic review-based meta-analyses (SR/MA) for one or more outcomes. None of the included studies found major differences between summary treatment effects in English-language restricted meta-analyses and LOE-inclusive meta-analyses. Findings differed about the methodological and reporting quality of trials reported in LOE. The precision of pooled estimates improved with the inclusion of LOE trials. Overall, we found no evidence of a systematic bias from the use of language restrictions in systematic review-based meta-analyses in conventional medicine. Further research is needed to determine the impact of language restriction on systematic reviews in particular fields of medicine.

Association between Adult Height and Risk of Colorectal, Lung, and Prostate Cancer : Results from Meta-analyses of Prospective Studies and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khankari, Nikhil K.; Shu, Xiao Ou; Wen, Wanqing; Kraft, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Peters, Ulrike; Schildkraut, Joellen; Schumacher, Fredrick; Bofetta, Paolo; Risch, Angela; Bickeböller, Heike; Amos, Christopher I.; Easton, Douglas; Eeles, Rosalind A.; Gruber, Stephen B.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hunter, David J.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Pierce, Brandon L.; Zheng, Wei; Blalock, Kendra; Campbell, Peter T.; Casey, Graham; Conti, David V.; Edlund, Christopher K.; Figueiredo, Jane; James Gauderman, W.; Gong, Jian; Green, Roger C.; Harju, John F.; Harrison, Tabitha A.; Jacobs, Eric J.; Jenkins, Mark A.; Jiao, Shuo; Li, Li; Lin, Yi; Manion, Frank J.; Moreno, Victor; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Raskin, Leon; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Seminara, Daniela; Severi, Gianluca; Stenzel, Stephanie L.; Thomas, Duncan C.; Hopper, John L.; Southey, Melissa C.; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; Gibson, Lorna; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Ahsan, Habib; Whittemore, Alice; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Hofman, Albert; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A.; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Dahmen, Norbert; Beckman, Lars; Crisponi, Laura; Hall, Per; Czene, Kamila; Irwanto, Astrid; Liu, Jianjun; Easton, Douglas F.; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Eeles, Rosalind; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Muir, Kenneth; Giles, Graham; Neal, David; Donovan, Jenny L.; Hamdy, Freddie C.; Wiklund, Fredrik; Gronberg, Henrik; Haiman, Christopher; Schumacher, Fred; Travis, Ruth; Riboli, Elio; Hunter, David; Gapstur, Susan; Berndt, Sonja; Chanock, Stephen; Han, Younghun; Su, Li; Wei, Yongyue; Hung, Rayjean J.; Brhane, Yonathan; McLaughlin, John; Brennan, Paul; McKay, James D.; Rosenberger, Albert; Houlston, Richard S.; Caporaso, Neil; Teresa Landi, Maria; Heinrich, Joachim; Wu, Xifeng; Ye, Yuanqing; Christiani, David C.

2016-01-01

Background: Observational studies examining associations between adult height and risk of colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers have generated mixed results. We conducted meta-analyses using data from prospective cohort studies and further carried out Mendelian randomization analyses, using

Clinical Outcome Prediction in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using Bayesian Neural Networks with Fuzzy Logic Inferences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin W. Y. Lo

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH. Methods. The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients. Results. Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave generalizable posterior distributions of population mean log odd ratios (ORs. Similar trends were noted in Bayesian and linear regression ORs. Significant outcome predictors include normal motor response, cerebral infarction, history of myocardial infarction, cerebral edema, history of diabetes mellitus, fever on day 8, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, admission angiographic vasospasm, neurological grade, intraventricular hemorrhage, ruptured aneurysm size, history of hypertension, vasospasm day, age and mean arterial pressure. Heteroscedasticity was present in the nontransformed dataset. Artificial neural networks found nonlinear relationships with 11 hidden variables in 1 layer, using the multilayer perceptron model. Fuzzy logic decision rules (centroid defuzzification technique denoted cut-off points for poor prognosis at greater than 2.5 clusters. Discussion. This aSAH prognostic system makes use of existing knowledge, recognizes unknown areas, incorporates one's clinical reasoning, and compensates for uncertainty in prognostication.

Using structural equation modeling for network meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tu, Yu-Kang; Wu, Yun-Chun

2017-07-14

Network meta-analysis overcomes the limitations of traditional pair-wise meta-analysis by incorporating all available evidence into a general statistical framework for simultaneous comparisons of several treatments. Currently, network meta-analyses are undertaken either within the Bayesian hierarchical linear models or frequentist generalized linear mixed models. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a statistical method originally developed for modeling causal relations among observed and latent variables. As random effect is explicitly modeled as a latent variable in SEM, it is very flexible for analysts to specify complex random effect structure and to make linear and nonlinear constraints on parameters. The aim of this article is to show how to undertake a network meta-analysis within the statistical framework of SEM. We used an example dataset to demonstrate the standard fixed and random effect network meta-analysis models can be easily implemented in SEM. It contains results of 26 studies that directly compared three treatment groups A, B and C for prevention of first bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. We also showed that a new approach to network meta-analysis based on the technique of unrestricted weighted least squares (UWLS) method can also be undertaken using SEM. For both the fixed and random effect network meta-analysis, SEM yielded similar coefficients and confidence intervals to those reported in the previous literature. The point estimates of two UWLS models were identical to those in the fixed effect model but the confidence intervals were greater. This is consistent with results from the traditional pairwise meta-analyses. Comparing to UWLS model with common variance adjusted factor, UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor has greater confidence intervals when the heterogeneity was larger in the pairwise comparison. The UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor reflects the difference in heterogeneity within each comparison

ObStruct: a method to objectively analyse factors driving population structure using Bayesian ancestry profiles.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Velimir Gayevskiy

Full Text Available Bayesian inference methods are extensively used to detect the presence of population structure given genetic data. The primary output of software implementing these methods are ancestry profiles of sampled individuals. While these profiles robustly partition the data into subgroups, currently there is no objective method to determine whether the fixed factor of interest (e.g. geographic origin correlates with inferred subgroups or not, and if so, which populations are driving this correlation. We present ObStruct, a novel tool to objectively analyse the nature of structure revealed in Bayesian ancestry profiles using established statistical methods. ObStruct evaluates the extent of structural similarity between sampled and inferred populations, tests the significance of population differentiation, provides information on the contribution of sampled and inferred populations to the observed structure and crucially determines whether the predetermined factor of interest correlates with inferred population structure. Analyses of simulated and experimental data highlight ObStruct's ability to objectively assess the nature of structure in populations. We show the method is capable of capturing an increase in the level of structure with increasing time since divergence between simulated populations. Further, we applied the method to a highly structured dataset of 1,484 humans from seven continents and a less structured dataset of 179 Saccharomyces cerevisiae from three regions in New Zealand. Our results show that ObStruct provides an objective metric to classify the degree, drivers and significance of inferred structure, as well as providing novel insights into the relationships between sampled populations, and adds a final step to the pipeline for population structure analyses.

Effect size calculation in meta-analyses of psychotherapy outcome research.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyt, William T; Del Re, A C

2018-05-01

Meta-analysis of psychotherapy intervention research normally examines differences between treatment groups and some form of comparison group (e.g., wait list control; alternative treatment group). The effect of treatment is normally quantified as a standardized mean difference (SMD). We describe procedures for computing unbiased estimates of the population SMD from sample data (e.g., group Ms and SDs), and provide guidance about a number of complications that may arise related to effect size computation. These complications include (a) incomplete data in research reports; (b) use of baseline data in computing SMDs and estimating the population standard deviation (σ); (c) combining effect size data from studies using different research designs; and (d) appropriate techniques for analysis of data from studies providing multiple estimates of the effect of interest (i.e., dependent effect sizes). Clinical or Methodological Significance of this article: Meta-analysis is a set of techniques for producing valid summaries of existing research. The initial computational step for meta-analyses of research on intervention outcomes involves computing an effect size quantifying the change attributable to the intervention. We discuss common issues in the computation of effect sizes and provide recommended procedures to address them.

An Introduction to Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Exotic Animal Practitioners

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meursinge Reynders, Reint

2017-01-01

Developing and conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses is a complex process that requires many judgments and the input from a wide variety of stakeholders. This article presents an introduction on how to develop, conduct, and report these research studies. Veterinary clinicians should seek

Association between Adult Height and Risk of Colorectal, Lung, and Prostate Cancer: Results from Meta-analyses of Prospective Studies and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Khankari, Nikhil K.; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Wen, Wanqing; Kraft, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Peters, Ulrike; Schildkraut, Joellen; Schumacher, Fredrick; Bofetta, Paolo; Risch, Angela; Bickeböller, Heike; Amos, Christopher I.; Easton, Douglas; Gruber, Stephen B.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hunter, David J.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Pierce, Brandon L.; Zheng, Wei

2016-01-01

Background Observational studies examining associations between adult height and risk of colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers have generated mixed results. We conducted meta-analyses using data from prospective cohort studies and further carried out Mendelian randomization analyses, using height-associated genetic variants identified in a genome-wide association study (GWAS), to evaluate the association of adult height with these cancers. Methods and Findings A systematic review of prospective studies was conducted using the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases. Using meta-analyses, results obtained from 62 studies were summarized for the association of a 10-cm increase in height with cancer risk. Mendelian randomization analyses were conducted using summary statistics obtained for 423 genetic variants identified from a recent GWAS of adult height and from a cancer genetics consortium study of multiple cancers that included 47,800 cases and 81,353 controls. For a 10-cm increase in height, the summary relative risks derived from the meta-analyses of prospective studies were 1.12 (95% CI 1.10, 1.15), 1.07 (95% CI 1.05, 1.10), and 1.06 (95% CI 1.02, 1.11) for colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers, respectively. Mendelian randomization analyses showed increased risks of colorectal (odds ratio [OR] = 1.58, 95% CI 1.14, 2.18) and lung cancer (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.00, 1.22) associated with each 10-cm increase in genetically predicted height. No association was observed for prostate cancer (OR = 1.03, 95% CI 0.92, 1.15). Our meta-analysis was limited to published studies. The sample size for the Mendelian randomization analysis of colorectal cancer was relatively small, thus affecting the precision of the point estimate. Conclusions Our study provides evidence for a potential causal association of adult height with the risk of colorectal and lung cancers and suggests that certain genetic factors and biological pathways affecting adult height may also affect the

The Yusuf-Peto method was not a robust method for meta-analyses of rare events data from antidepressant trials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sharma, Tarang; Gøtzsche, Peter C.; Kuss, Oliver

2017-01-01

Objectives The aim of the study was to identify the validity of effect estimates for serious rare adverse events in clinical study reports of antidepressants trials, across different meta-analysis methods. Study Design and Setting Four serious rare adverse events (all-cause mortality, suicidality......, aggressive behavior, and akathisia) were meta-analyzed using different methods. The Yusuf-Peto odds ratio ignores studies with no events and was compared with the alternative approaches of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), conditional logistic regression, a Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte...... from 1. For example, the odds ratio for suicidality for children and adolescents was 2.39 (95% confidence interval = 1.32–4.33), using the Yusuf-Peto method but increased to 2.64 (1.33–5.26) using conditional logistic regression, to 2.69 (1.19–6.09) using beta-binomial, to 2.73 (1.37–5.42) using...

A Bayesian Nonparametric Meta-Analysis Model

Science.gov (United States)

Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G.

2015-01-01

In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall…

Beta-Blockers and Outcome in Heart Failure and Atrial Fibrillation A Meta-Analysis : a meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rienstra, Michiel; Damman, Kevin; Mulder, Bart A.; Van Gelder, Isabelle C.; McMurray, John J. V.; Van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.

Objectives The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of beta blockade on outcome in patients with heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF). Background Beta-blockers are widely used in patients with HF and AF. Recommendation in current HF guidelines, however, is based on populations

Methodologic quality of meta-analyses and systematic reviews on the Mediterranean diet and cardiovascular disease outcomes: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Huedo-Medina, Tania B; Garcia, Marissa; Bihuniak, Jessica D; Kenny, Anne; Kerstetter, Jane

2016-03-01

Several systematic reviews/meta-analyses published within the past 10 y have examined the associations of Mediterranean-style diets (MedSDs) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, these reviews have not been evaluated for satisfying contemporary methodologic quality standards. This study evaluated the quality of recent systematic reviews/meta-analyses on MedSD and CVD risk outcomes by using an established methodologic quality scale. The relation between review quality and impact per publication value of the journal in which the article had been published was also evaluated. To assess compliance with current standards, we applied a modified version of the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTARMedSD) quality scale to systematic reviews/meta-analyses retrieved from electronic databases that had met our selection criteria: 1) used systematic or meta-analytic procedures to review the literature, 2) examined MedSD trials, and 3) had MedSD interventions independently or combined with other interventions. Reviews completely satisfied from 8% to 75% of the AMSTARMedSD items (mean ± SD: 31.2% ± 19.4%), with those published in higher-impact journals having greater quality scores. At a minimum, 60% of the 24 reviews did not disclose full search details or apply appropriate statistical methods to combine study findings. Only 5 of the reviews included participant or study characteristics in their analyses, and none evaluated MedSD diet characteristics. These data suggest that current meta-analyses/systematic reviews evaluating the effect of MedSD on CVD risk do not fully comply with contemporary methodologic quality standards. As a result, there are more research questions to answer to enhance our understanding of how MedSD affects CVD risk or how these effects may be modified by the participant or MedSD characteristics. To clarify the associations between MedSD and CVD risk, future meta-analyses and systematic reviews should not only follow methodologic

Bayesian computation with R

CERN Document Server

Albert, Jim

2009-01-01

There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl

Electrocardiographic PR prolongation and atrial fibrillation risk: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Min; Lu, Xiangfeng; Huang, Jianfeng; Zhang, Shu; Gu, Dongfeng

2015-01-01

Electrocardiographic PR interval prolongation is considered a benign condition, but recent studies have challenged the notion by demonstrating that prolonged PR interval is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). The purpose of this study was to perform a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to evaluate the evidence supporting an association of prolonged PR interval with AF incidence. We searched the MEDLINE and EMBASE database (from inception to May 2014) supplemented by manual searches of references of relevant retrieved articles. Prospective cohort studies were included with hazard ratio (HR) of prolonged PR interval for incident AF. The search strategy yielded 6 cohort studies meeting eligibility criteria. A total of 328,932 participants were included, with 14,191 participants suffering from AF during follow-up. Pooled HRs of prolonged PR interval for incident AF was 1.30 (95% CI: 1.13 to 1.49) using random-effect model (I(2) = 30%). There was a significant difference of combined HRs between studies with and without adjustment for taking of AV nodal blocking agents in subgroup analysis. Sensitivity analysis supported the robustness of the results. Prolonged PR interval is not a totally benign condition but an independent risk factor for AF incidence. The mechanisms underlying the association of prolonged PR interval with AF incidence need further research. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses of individual participant data: the PRISMA-IPD Statement.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Lesley A; Clarke, Mike; Rovers, Maroeska; Riley, Richard D; Simmonds, Mark; Stewart, Gavin; Tierney, Jayne F

2015-04-28

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of individual participant data (IPD) aim to collect, check, and reanalyze individual-level data from all studies addressing a particular research question and are therefore considered a gold standard approach to evidence synthesis. They are likely to be used with increasing frequency as current initiatives to share clinical trial data gain momentum and may be particularly important in reviewing controversial therapeutic areas. To develop PRISMA-IPD as a stand-alone extension to the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) Statement, tailored to the specific requirements of reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of IPD. Although developed primarily for reviews of randomized trials, many items will apply in other contexts, including reviews of diagnosis and prognosis. Development of PRISMA-IPD followed the EQUATOR Network framework guidance and used the existing standard PRISMA Statement as a starting point to draft additional relevant material. A web-based survey informed discussion at an international workshop that included researchers, clinicians, methodologists experienced in conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of IPD, and journal editors. The statement was drafted and iterative refinements were made by the project, advisory, and development groups. The PRISMA-IPD Development Group reached agreement on the PRISMA-IPD checklist and flow diagram by consensus. Compared with standard PRISMA, the PRISMA-IPD checklist includes 3 new items that address (1) methods of checking the integrity of the IPD (such as pattern of randomization, data consistency, baseline imbalance, and missing data), (2) reporting any important issues that emerge, and (3) exploring variation (such as whether certain types of individual benefit more from the intervention than others). A further additional item was created by reorganization of standard PRISMA items relating to interpreting results. Wording

Reporting of conflicts of interests in meta-analyses of trials of pharmacological treatments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roseman, M.; Milette, K.; Bero, A.B.; Coyne, J.C.; Lexchin, J.; Turner, E.H.; Thombs, B.D.

2011-01-01

Abstract CONTEXT: Disclosure of conflicts of interest (COIs) from pharmaceutical industry study funding and author-industry financial relationships is sometimes recommended for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in biomedical journals. Authors of meta-analyses, however, are not required

The more total cognitive load is reduced by cues, the better retention and transfer of multimedia learning: A meta-analysis and two meta-regression analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Heping; Wang, Fuxing; Hao, Yanbin; Chen, Jiaxue; An, Jing; Wang, Yuxin; Liu, Huashan

2017-01-01

Cueing facilitates retention and transfer of multimedia learning. From the perspective of cognitive load theory (CLT), cueing has a positive effect on learning outcomes because of the reduction in total cognitive load and avoidance of cognitive overload. However, this has not been systematically evaluated. Moreover, what remains ambiguous is the direct relationship between the cue-related cognitive load and learning outcomes. A meta-analysis and two subsequent meta-regression analyses were conducted to explore these issues. Subjective total cognitive load (SCL) and scores on a retention test and transfer test were selected as dependent variables. Through a systematic literature search, 32 eligible articles encompassing 3,597 participants were included in the SCL-related meta-analysis. Among them, 25 articles containing 2,910 participants were included in the retention-related meta-analysis and the following retention-related meta-regression, while there were 29 articles containing 3,204 participants included in the transfer-related meta-analysis and the transfer-related meta-regression. The meta-analysis revealed a statistically significant cueing effect on subjective ratings of cognitive load (d = -0.11, 95% CI = [-0.19, -0.02], p < 0.05), retention performance (d = 0.27, 95% CI = [0.08, 0.46], p < 0.01), and transfer performance (d = 0.34, 95% CI = [0.12, 0.56], p < 0.01). The subsequent meta-regression analyses showed that dSCL for cueing significantly predicted dretention for cueing (β = -0.70, 95% CI = [-1.02, -0.38], p < 0.001), as well as dtransfer for cueing (β = -0.60, 95% CI = [-0.92, -0.28], p < 0.001). Thus in line with CLT, adding cues in multimedia materials can indeed reduce SCL and promote learning outcomes, and the more SCL is reduced by cues, the better retention and transfer of multimedia learning.

On Conducting Construct Validity Meta-Analyses for the Rorschach: A Reply to Tibon Czopp and Zeligman (2016).

Science.gov (United States)

Mihura, Joni L; Meyer, Gregory J; Dumitrascu, Nicolae; Bombel, George

2016-01-01

We respond to Tibon Czopp and Zeligman's (2016) critique of our systematic reviews and meta-analyses of 65 Rorschach Comprehensive System (CS) variables published in Psychological Bulletin (2013). The authors endorsed our supportive findings but critiqued the same methodology when used for the 13 unsupported variables. Unfortunately, their commentary was based on significant misunderstandings of our meta-analytic method and results, such as thinking we used introspectively assessed criteria in classifying levels of support and reporting only a subset of our externally assessed criteria. We systematically address their arguments that our construct label and criterion variable choices were inaccurate and, therefore, meta-analytic validity for these 13 CS variables was artificially low. For example, the authors created new construct labels for these variables that they called "the customary CS interpretation," but did not describe their methodology nor provide evidence that their labels would result in better validity than ours. They cite studies they believe we should have included; we explain how these studies did not fit our inclusion criteria and that including them would have actually reduced the relevant CS variables' meta-analytic validity. Ultimately, criticisms alone cannot change meta-analytic support from negative to positive; Tibon Czopp and Zeligman would need to conduct their own construct validity meta-analyses.

[Clinical research XXIII. From clinical judgment to meta-analyses].

Science.gov (United States)

Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Castelán-Martínez, Osvaldo D; Pérez-Rodríguez, Marcela; Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Noyola-Castillo, Maura E; Talavera, Juan O

2014-01-01

Systematic reviews (SR) are studies made in order to ask clinical questions based on original articles. Meta-analysis (MTA) is the mathematical analysis of SR. These analyses are divided in two groups, those which evaluate the measured results of quantitative variables (for example, the body mass index -BMI-) and those which evaluate qualitative variables (for example, if a patient is alive or dead, or if he is healing or not). Quantitative variables generally use the mean difference analysis and qualitative variables can be performed using several calculations: odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio (HR). These analyses are represented through forest plots which allow the evaluation of each individual study, as well as the heterogeneity between studies and the overall effect of the intervention. These analyses are mainly based on Student's t test and chi-squared. To take appropriate decisions based on the MTA, it is important to understand the characteristics of statistical methods in order to avoid misinterpretations.

Reporting of Conflicts of Interest in Meta-analyses of Trials of Pharmacological Treatments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roseman, Michelle; Milette, Katherine; Bero, Lisa A.; Coyne, James C.; Lexchin, Joel; Turner, Erick H.; Thombs, Brett D.

2011-01-01

Context Disclosure of conflicts of interest (COIs) from pharmaceutical industry study funding and author-industry financial relationships is sometimes recommended for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in biomedical journals. Authors of meta-analyses, however, are not required to report

Disagreements in meta-analyses using outcomes measured on continuous or rating scales: observer agreement study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tendal, Britta; Higgins, Julian P T; Jüni, Peter

2009-01-01

difference (SMD), the protocols for the reviews and the trial reports (n=45) were retrieved. DATA EXTRACTION: Five experienced methodologists and five PhD students independently extracted data from the trial reports for calculation of the first SMD result in each review. The observers did not have access...... to the reviews but to the protocols, where the relevant outcome was highlighted. The agreement was analysed at both trial and meta-analysis level, pairing the observers in all possible ways (45 pairs, yielding 2025 pairs of trials and 450 pairs of meta-analyses). Agreement was defined as SMDs that differed less...... than 0.1 in their point estimates or confidence intervals. RESULTS: The agreement was 53% at trial level and 31% at meta-analysis level. Including all pairs, the median disagreement was SMD=0.22 (interquartile range 0.07-0.61). The experts agreed somewhat more than the PhD students at trial level (61...

The Limited Informativeness of Meta-Analyses of Media Effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Valkenburg, Patti M

2015-09-01

In this issue of Perspectives on Psychological Science, Christopher Ferguson reports on a meta-analysis examining the relationship between children's video game use and several outcome variables, including aggression and attention deficit symptoms (Ferguson, 2015, this issue). In this commentary, I compare Ferguson's nonsignificant effects sizes with earlier meta-analyses on the same topics that yielded larger, significant effect sizes. I argue that Ferguson's choice for partial effects sizes is unjustified on both methodological and theoretical grounds. I then plead for a more constructive debate on the effects of violent video games on children and adolescents. Until now, this debate has been dominated by two camps with diametrically opposed views on the effects of violent media on children. However, even the earliest media effects studies tell us that children can react quite differently to the same media content. Thus, if researchers truly want to understand how media affect children, rather than fight for the presence or absence of effects, they need to adopt a perspective that takes differential susceptibility to media effects more seriously. © The Author(s) 2015.

Uptake of systematic reviews and meta-analyses based on individual participant data in clinical practice guidelines: descriptive study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vale, C.L.; Rydzewska, L.H.; Rovers, M.M.; Emberson, J.R.; Gueyffier, F.; Stewart, L.A.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To establish the extent to which systematic reviews and meta-analyses of individual participant data (IPD) are being used to inform the recommendations included in published clinical guidelines. DESIGN: Descriptive study. SETTING: Database maintained by the Cochrane IPD Meta-analysis

New Blood Pressure-Associated Loci Identified in Meta-Analyses of 475 000 Individuals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kraja, Aldi T.; Cook, James P.; Warren, Helen R.

2017-01-01

Background - Genome-wide association studies have recently identified >400 loci that harbor DNA sequence variants that influence blood pressure (BP). Our earlier studies identified and validated 56 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) associated with BP from meta-analyses of exome chip genotype data...

Cooper's Taxonomy of Literature Reviews Applied to Meta-Analyses in Educational Achievement.

Science.gov (United States)

Sipe, Theresa Ann; Stallings, William M.

H. M. Cooper (1988) has developed a taxonomy that classified literature reviews based on six characteristics: (1) focus of attention; (2) goal of the synthesis; (3) perspective on the literature; (4) coverage of the literature; (5) organization of the perspective; and (6) intended audience. One hundred and three meta-analyses identified from the…

Atrial Fibrillation: Diagnosis

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... of this page please turn JavaScript on. Feature: Atrial Fibrillation Atrial Fibrillation: Diagnosis Past Issues / Winter 2015 Table of Contents ... of your body's cells and organs. Read More "Atrial Fibrillation" Articles Atrial Fibrillation / Who Is at Risk for ...

Efficacy of pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy for adult psychiatric disorders: a systematic overview of meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Huhn, Maximilian; Tardy, Magdolna; Spineli, Loukia Maria; Kissling, Werner; Förstl, Hans; Pitschel-Walz, Gabriele; Leucht, Claudia; Samara, Myrto; Dold, Markus; Davis, John M; Leucht, Stefan

2014-06-01

There is debate about the effectiveness of psychiatric treatments and whether pharmacotherapy or psychotherapy should be primarily used. To perform a systematic overview on the efficacy of pharmacotherapies and psychotherapies for major psychiatric disorders and to compare the quality of pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy trials. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane Library (April 2012, with no time or language limit) for systematic reviews on pharmacotherapy or psychotherapy vs placebo, pharmacotherapy vs psychotherapy, and their combination vs either modality alone. Two reviewers independently selected the meta-analyses and extracted efficacy effect sizes. We assessed the quality of the individual trials included in the pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy meta-analyses with the Cochrane risk of bias tool. The search yielded 45,233 results. We included 61 meta-analyses on 21 psychiatric disorders, which contained 852 individual trials and 137,126 participants. The mean effect size of the meta-analyses was medium (mean, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.41-0.59). Effect sizes of psychotherapies vs placebo tended to be higher than those of medication, but direct comparisons, albeit usually based on few trials, did not reveal consistent differences. Individual pharmacotherapy trials were more likely to have large sample sizes, blinding, control groups, and intention-to-treat analyses. In contrast, psychotherapy trials had lower dropout rates and provided follow-up data. In psychotherapy studies, wait-list designs showed larger effects than did comparisons with placebo. Many pharmacotherapies and psychotherapies are effective, but there is a lot of room for improvement. Because of the multiple differences in the methods used in pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy trials, indirect comparisons of their effect sizes compared with placebo or no treatment are problematic. Well-designed direct comparisons, which are scarce, need public funding. Because patients often benefit

Timing matters in hip fracture surgery: patients operated within 48 hours have better outcomes. A meta-analysis and meta-regression of over 190,000 patients.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorenzo Moja

Full Text Available To assess the relationship between surgical delay and mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture. Systematic review and meta-analysis of retrospective and prospective studies published from 1948 to 2011. Medline (from 1948, Embase (from 1974 and CINAHL (from 1982, and the Cochrane Library. Odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals for each study were extracted and pooled with a random effects model. Heterogeneity, publication bias, bayesian analysis, and meta-regression analyses were done. Criteria for inclusion were retro- and prospective elderly population studies, patients with operated hip fractures, indication of timing of surgery and survival status.There were 35 independent studies, with 191,873 participants and 34,448 deaths. The majority considered a cut-off between 24 and 48 hours. Early hip surgery was associated with a lower risk of death (pooled odds ratio (OR 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI 0.67 to 0.81; P<0.000 and pressure sores (0.48, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.60; P<0.000. Meta-analysis of the adjusted prospective studies gave similar results. The bayesian probability predicted that about 20% of future studies might find that early surgery is not beneficial for decreasing mortality. None of the confounders (e.g. age, sex, data source, baseline risk, cut-off points, study location, quality and year explained the differences between studies.Surgical delay is associated with a significant increase in the risk of death and pressure sores. Conservative timing strategies should be avoided. Orthopaedic surgery services should ensure the majority of patients are operated within one or two days.

Bisphosphonates and risk of cardiovascular events: a meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dae Hyun Kim

Full Text Available Some evidence suggests that bisphosphonates may reduce atherosclerosis, while concerns have been raised about atrial fibrillation. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the effects of bisphosphonates on total adverse cardiovascular (CV events, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction (MI, stroke, and CV death in adults with or at risk for low bone mass.A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE through July 2014 identified 58 randomized controlled trials with longer than 6 months in duration that reported CV events. Absolute risks and the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs of total CV events, atrial fibrillation, MI, stroke, and CV death were estimated. Subgroup analyses by follow-up duration, population characteristics, bisphosphonate types, and route were performed.Absolute risks over 25-36 months in bisphosphonate-treated versus control patients were 6.5% versus 6.2% for total CV events; 1.4% versus 1.5% for atrial fibrillation; 1.0% versus 1.2% for MI; 1.6% versus 1.9% for stroke; and 1.5% versus 1.4% for CV death. Bisphosphonate treatment up to 36 months did not have any significant effects on total CV events (14 trials; ORs [95% CI]: 0.98 [0.84-1.14]; I2 = 0.0%, atrial fibrillation (41 trials; 1.08 [0.92-1.25]; I2 = 0.0%, MI (10 trials; 0.96 [0.69-1.34]; I2 = 0.0%, stroke (10 trials; 0.99 [0.82-1.19]; I2 = 5.8%, and CV death (14 trials; 0.88 [0.72-1.07]; I2 = 0.0% with little between-study heterogeneity. The risk of atrial fibrillation appears to be modestly elevated for zoledronic acid (6 trials; 1.24 [0.96-1.61]; I2 = 0.0%, not for oral bisphosphonates (26 trials; 1.02 [0.83-1.24]; I2 = 0.0%. The CV effects did not vary by subgroups or study quality.Bisphosphonates do not have beneficial or harmful effects on atherosclerotic CV events, but zoledronic acid may modestly increase the risk of atrial fibrillation. Given the large reduction in fractures with bisphosphonates, changes in

Quality of meta-analyses in major leading gastroenterology and hepatology journals: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Pengfei; Qiu, Yuanyu; Qian, Yuting; Chen, Xiao; Wang, Yiran; Cui, Jin; Zhai, Xiao

2017-01-01

To appraise the current reporting methodological quality of meta-analyses in five leading gastroenterology and hepatology journals, and to identify the variables associated with the reporting quality. We systematically searched the literature of meta-analyses in Gastroenterology, Gut, Hepatology, Journal of Hepatology (J HEPATOL) and American Journal of Gastroenterology (AM J GASTROENTEROL) from 2006 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2014. Characteristics were extracted based on the PRISMA statement and the AMSTAR tool. Country, number of patients, funding source were also revealed and descriptively reported. A total of 127 meta-analyses were enrolled in this study and were compared among journals, study years, and other characters. Compliances with the PRISMA statement and the AMSTAR checklist were 20.8 ± 4.2 out of a maximum of 27 and 7.6 ± 2.4 out of a maximum of 11, respectively. Some domains were poorly reported including describing a protocol and/or registration (item 5, 0.0%), describing methods, and giving results of additional analyses (item 16, 45.7% and item 23, 48.0%) for PRISMA and duplicating study selection and data extraction (item 2, 53.5%), and providing a list of included and excluded studies (item 5, 14.2%) for AMSTAR. Publication in recent years showed a significantly better methodological quality than those published in previous years. This study shows that methodological reporting quality of MAs in the major gastroenterology and hepatology journals has improved in recent years after the publication of the developed PRISMA statement, and it can be further improved. © 2016 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

The atrial fibrillation ablation pilot study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arbelo, Elena; Brugada, Josep; Hindricks, Gerhard

2014-01-01

AIMS: The Atrial Fibrillation Ablation Pilot Study is a prospective registry designed to describe the clinical epidemiology of patients undergoing an atrial fibrillation (AFib) ablation, and the diagnostic/therapeutic processes applied across Europe. The aims of the 1-year follow-up were to analyse...... was achieved in 40.7% of patients (43.7% in paroxysmal AF; 30.2% in persistent AF; 36.7% in long-lasting persistent AF). A second ablation was required in 18% of the cases and 43.4% were under antiarrhythmic treatment. Thirty-three patients (2.5%) suffered an adverse event, 272 (21%) experienced a left atrial...... tachycardia, and 4 patients died (1 haemorrhagic stroke, 1 ventricular fibrillation in a patient with ischaemic heart disease, 1 cancer, and 1 of unknown cause). CONCLUSION: The AFib Ablation Pilot Study provided crucial information on the epidemiology, management, and outcomes of catheter ablation of AFib...

Variables associated with achievement in higher education: A systematic review of meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Michael; Preckel, Franzis

2017-06-01

The last 2 decades witnessed a surge in empirical studies on the variables associated with achievement in higher education. A number of meta-analyses synthesized these findings. In our systematic literature review, we included 38 meta-analyses investigating 105 correlates of achievement, based on 3,330 effect sizes from almost 2 million students. We provide a list of the 105 variables, ordered by the effect size, and summary statistics for central research topics. The results highlight the close relation between social interaction in courses and achievement. Achievement is also strongly associated with the stimulation of meaningful learning by presenting information in a clear way, relating it to the students, and using conceptually demanding learning tasks. Instruction and communication technology has comparably weak effect sizes, which did not increase over time. Strong moderator effects are found for almost all instructional methods, indicating that how a method is implemented in detail strongly affects achievement. Teachers with high-achieving students invest time and effort in designing the microstructure of their courses, establish clear learning goals, and employ feedback practices. This emphasizes the importance of teacher training in higher education. Students with high achievement are characterized by high self-efficacy, high prior achievement and intelligence, conscientiousness, and the goal-directed use of learning strategies. Barring the paucity of controlled experiments and the lack of meta-analyses on recent educational innovations, the variables associated with achievement in higher education are generally well investigated and well understood. By using these findings, teachers, university administrators, and policymakers can increase the effectivity of higher education. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The Reporting Quality of Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses in Industrial and Organizational Psychology: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Schalken, Naomi; Rietbergen, Charlotte

2017-01-01

Objective: The goal of this systematic review was to examine the reporting quality of the method section of quantitative systematic reviews and meta-analyses from 2009 to 2016 in the field of industrial and organizational psychology with the help of the Meta-Analysis Reporting Standards (MARS), and to update previous research, such as the study of Aytug et al. (2012) and Dieckmann et al. (2009). Methods: A systematic search for quantitative systematic reviews and meta-analyses was conducted in the top 10 journals in the field of industrial and organizational psychology between January 2009 and April 2016. Data were extracted on study characteristics and items of the method section of MARS. A cross-classified multilevel model was analyzed, to test whether publication year and journal impact factor (JIF) were associated with the reporting quality scores of articles. Results: Compliance with MARS in the method section was generally inadequate in the random sample of 120 articles. Variation existed in the reporting of items. There were no significant effects of publication year and journal impact factor (JIF) on the reporting quality scores of articles. Conclusions: The reporting quality in the method section of systematic reviews and meta-analyses was still insufficient, therefore we recommend researchers to improve the reporting in their articles by using reporting standards like MARS.

Endorsement of PRISMA statement and quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published in nursing journals: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tam, Wilson W S; Lo, Kenneth K H; Khalechelvam, Parames

2017-02-07

Systematic reviews (SRs) often poorly report key information, thereby diminishing their usefulness. Previous studies evaluated published SRs and determined that they failed to meet explicit criteria or characteristics. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement was recommended as a reporting guideline for SR and meta-analysis (MA), but previous studies showed that adherence to the statement was not high for SRs published in different medical fields. Thus, the aims of this study are twofold: (1) to investigate the number of nursing journals that have required or recommended the use of the PRISMA statement for reporting SR, and (2) to examine the adherence of SRs and/or meta-analyses to the PRISMA statement published in nursing journals. A cross-sectional study. Nursing journals listed in the ISI journal citation report were divided into 2 groups based on the recommendation of PRISMA statement in their 'Instruction for Authors'. SRs and meta-analyses published in 2014 were searched in 3 databases. 37 SRs and meta-analyses were randomly selected in each group. The adherence of each item to the PRISMA was examined and summarised using descriptive statistics. The quality of the SRs was assessed by Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews. The differences between the 2 groups were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test. Out of 107 nursing journals, 30 (28.0%) recommended or required authors to follow the PRISMA statement when they submit SRs or meta-analyses. The median rates of adherence to the PRISMA statement for reviews published in journals with and without PRISMA endorsement were 64.9% (IQR: 17.6-92.3%) and 73.0% (IQR: 59.5-94.6%), respectively. No significant difference was observed in any of the items between the 2 groups. The median adherence of SRs and meta-analyses in nursing journals to PRISMA is low at 64.9% and 73.0%, respectively. Nonetheless, the adherence level of nursing journals to the

Endorsement of PRISMA statement and quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published in nursing journals: a cross-sectional study

Science.gov (United States)

Tam, Wilson W S; Lo, Kenneth K H; Khalechelvam, Parames

2017-01-01

Objective Systematic reviews (SRs) often poorly report key information, thereby diminishing their usefulness. Previous studies evaluated published SRs and determined that they failed to meet explicit criteria or characteristics. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement was recommended as a reporting guideline for SR and meta-analysis (MA), but previous studies showed that adherence to the statement was not high for SRs published in different medical fields. Thus, the aims of this study are twofold: (1) to investigate the number of nursing journals that have required or recommended the use of the PRISMA statement for reporting SR, and (2) to examine the adherence of SRs and/or meta-analyses to the PRISMA statement published in nursing journals. Design A cross-sectional study. Methods Nursing journals listed in the ISI journal citation report were divided into 2 groups based on the recommendation of PRISMA statement in their ‘Instruction for Authors’. SRs and meta-analyses published in 2014 were searched in 3 databases. 37 SRs and meta-analyses were randomly selected in each group. The adherence of each item to the PRISMA was examined and summarised using descriptive statistics. The quality of the SRs was assessed by Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews. The differences between the 2 groups were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test. Results Out of 107 nursing journals, 30 (28.0%) recommended or required authors to follow the PRISMA statement when they submit SRs or meta-analyses. The median rates of adherence to the PRISMA statement for reviews published in journals with and without PRISMA endorsement were 64.9% (IQR: 17.6–92.3%) and 73.0% (IQR: 59.5–94.6%), respectively. No significant difference was observed in any of the items between the 2 groups. Conclusions The median adherence of SRs and meta-analyses in nursing journals to PRISMA is low at 64.9% and 73.0%, respectively

Meta-Analyses of the Associations of Respiratory Health Effectswith Dampness and Mold in Homes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, William J.; Lei-Gomez, Quanhong; Mendell, Mark J.

2006-01-01

The Institute of Medicine (IOM) of the National Academy of Sciences recently completed a critical review of the scientific literature pertaining to the association of indoor dampness and mold contamination with adverse health effects. In this paper, we report the results of quantitative meta-analysis of the studies reviewed in the IOM report. We developed point estimates and confidence intervals (CIs) to summarize the association of several respiratory and asthma-related health outcomes with the presence of dampness and mold in homes. The odds ratios and confidence intervals from the original studies were transformed to the log scale and random effect models were applied to the log odds ratios and their variance. Models were constructed both accounting for the correlation between multiple results within the studies analyzed and ignoring such potential correlation. Central estimates of ORs for the health outcomes ranged from 1.32 to 2.10, with most central estimates between 1.3 and 1.8. Confidence intervals (95%) excluded unity except in two of 28 instances, and in most cases the lower bound of the CI exceeded 1.2. In general, the two meta-analysis methods produced similar estimates for ORs and CIs. Based on the results of the meta-analyses, building dampness and mold are associated with approximately 30% to 80% increases in a variety of respiratory and asthma-related health outcomes. The results of these meta-analyses reinforce the IOM's recommendation that actions be taken to prevent and reduce building dampness problems.

Systematic review finds that study data not published in full text articles have unclear impact on meta-analyses results in medical research.

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Schmucker, Christine M; Blümle, Anette; Schell, Lisa K; Schwarzer, Guido; Oeller, Patrick; Cabrera, Laura; von Elm, Erik; Briel, Matthias; Meerpohl, Joerg J

2017-01-01

A meta-analysis as part of a systematic review aims to provide a thorough, comprehensive and unbiased statistical summary of data from the literature. However, relevant study results could be missing from a meta-analysis because of selective publication and inadequate dissemination. If missing outcome data differ systematically from published ones, a meta-analysis will be biased with an inaccurate assessment of the intervention effect. As part of the EU-funded OPEN project (www.open-project.eu) we conducted a systematic review that assessed whether the inclusion of data that were not published at all and/or published only in the grey literature influences pooled effect estimates in meta-analyses and leads to different interpretation. Systematic review of published literature (methodological research projects). Four bibliographic databases were searched up to February 2016 without restriction of publication year or language. Methodological research projects were considered eligible for inclusion if they reviewed a cohort of meta-analyses which (i) compared pooled effect estimates of meta-analyses of health care interventions according to publication status of data or (ii) examined whether the inclusion of unpublished or grey literature data impacts the result of a meta-analysis. Seven methodological research projects including 187 meta-analyses comparing pooled treatment effect estimates according to different publication status were identified. Two research projects showed that published data showed larger pooled treatment effects in favour of the intervention than unpublished or grey literature data (Ratio of ORs 1.15, 95% CI 1.04-1.28 and 1.34, 95% CI 1.09-1.66). In the remaining research projects pooled effect estimates and/or overall findings were not significantly changed by the inclusion of unpublished and/or grey literature data. The precision of the pooled estimate was increased with narrower 95% confidence interval. Although we may anticipate that

Atrial Fibrillation: Treatment

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... of this page please turn JavaScript on. Feature: Atrial Fibrillation Atrial Fibrillation: Treatment Past Issues / Winter 2015 Table of Contents Treatment for atrial fibrillation depends on how often you have symptoms, how ...

Systematic assessment of environmental risk factors for bipolar disorder: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Bortolato, Beatrice; Köhler, Cristiano A; Evangelou, Evangelos; León-Caballero, Jordi; Solmi, Marco; Stubbs, Brendon; Belbasis, Lazaros; Pacchiarotti, Isabella; Kessing, Lars V; Berk, Michael; Vieta, Eduard; Carvalho, André F

2017-03-01

The pathophysiology of bipolar disorder is likely to involve both genetic and environmental risk factors. In our study, we aimed to perform a systematic search of environmental risk factors for BD. In addition, we assessed possible hints of bias in this literature, and identified risk factors supported by high epidemiological credibility. We searched the Pubmed/MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycInfo databases up to 7 October 2016 to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies that assessed associations between putative environmental risk factors and BD. For each meta-analysis, we estimated its summary effect size by means of both random- and fixed-effects models, 95% confidence intervals (CIs), the 95% prediction interval, and heterogeneity. Evidence of small-study effects and excess of significance bias was also assessed. Sixteen publications met the inclusion criteria (seven meta-analyses and nine qualitative systematic reviews). Fifty-one unique environmental risk factors for BD were evaluated. Six meta-analyses investigated associations with a risk factor for BD. Only irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) emerged as a risk factor for BD supported by convincing evidence (k=6; odds ratio [OR]=2.48; 95% CI=2.35-2.61; P<.001), and childhood adversity was supported by highly suggestive evidence. Asthma and obesity were risk factors for BD supported by suggestive evidence, and seropositivity to Toxoplasma gondii and a history of head injury were supported by weak evidence. Notwithstanding that several environmental risk factors for BD were identified, few meta-analyses of observational studies were available. Therefore, further well-designed and adequately powered studies are necessary to map the environmental risk factors for BD. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Phylogenetic systematics and biogeography of hummingbirds: Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses of partitioned data and selection of an appropriate partitioning strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, Jimmy A; Witt, Christopher C; Altshuler, Douglas L; Remsen, J V

2007-10-01

Hummingbirds are an important model system in avian biology, but to date the group has been the subject of remarkably few phylogenetic investigations. Here we present partitioned Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses for 151 of approximately 330 species of hummingbirds and 12 outgroup taxa based on two protein-coding mitochondrial genes (ND2 and ND4), flanking tRNAs, and two nuclear introns (AK1 and BFib). We analyzed these data under several partitioning strategies ranging between unpartitioned and a maximum of nine partitions. In order to select a statistically justified partitioning strategy following partitioned Bayesian analysis, we considered four alternative criteria including Bayes factors, modified versions of the Akaike information criterion for small sample sizes (AIC(c)), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and a decision-theoretic methodology (DT). Following partitioned maximum likelihood analyses, we selected a best-fitting strategy using hierarchical likelihood ratio tests (hLRTS), the conventional AICc, BIC, and DT, concluding that the most stringent criterion, the performance-based DT, was the most appropriate methodology for selecting amongst partitioning strategies. In the context of our well-resolved and well-supported phylogenetic estimate, we consider the historical biogeography of hummingbirds using ancestral state reconstructions of (1) primary geographic region of occurrence (i.e., South America, Central America, North America, Greater Antilles, Lesser Antilles), (2) Andean or non-Andean geographic distribution, and (3) minimum elevational occurrence. These analyses indicate that the basal hummingbird assemblages originated in the lowlands of South America, that most of the principle clades of hummingbirds (all but Mountain Gems and possibly Bees) originated on this continent, and that there have been many (at least 30) independent invasions of other primary landmasses, especially Central America.

Teaching meta-analysis using MetaLight

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas James

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Meta-analysis is a statistical method for combining the results of primary studies. It is often used in systematic reviews and is increasingly a method and topic that appears in student dissertations. MetaLight is a freely available software application that runs simple meta-analyses and contains specific functionality to facilitate the teaching and learning of meta-analysis. While there are many courses and resources for meta-analysis available and numerous software applications to run meta-analyses, there are few pieces of software which are aimed specifically at helping those teaching and learning meta-analysis. Valuable teaching time can be spent learning the mechanics of a new software application, rather than on the principles and practices of meta-analysis. Findings We discuss ways in which the MetaLight tool can be used to present some of the main issues involved in undertaking and interpreting a meta-analysis. Conclusions While there are many software tools available for conducting meta-analysis, in the context of a teaching programme such software can require expenditure both in terms of money and in terms of the time it takes to learn how to use it. MetaLight was developed specifically as a tool to facilitate the teaching and learning of meta-analysis and we have presented here some of the ways it might be used in a training situation.

Atrial Fibrillation: Complications

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... of this page please turn JavaScript on. Feature: Atrial Fibrillation Atrial Fibrillation: Complications Past Issues / Winter 2015 Table of Contents ... has two major complications—stroke and heart failure. Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke Click to enlarge image This illustration ...

Comparative efficacy of inhaled corticosteroid and long-acting beta agonist combinations in preventing COPD exacerbations: a Bayesian network meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Oba, Yuji; Lone, Nazir A

2014-01-01

A combination therapy with inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) and a long-acting beta agonist (LABA) is recommended in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients experiencing frequent exacerbations. Currently, there are five ICS/LABA combination products available on the market. The purpose of this study was to systematically review the efficacy of various ICS/LABA combinations with a network meta-analysis. Several databases and manufacturer's websites were searched for relevant clinical trials. Randomized control trials, at least 12 weeks duration, comparing an ICS/LABA combination with active control or placebo were included. Moderate and severe exacerbations were chosen as the outcome assessment criteria. The primary analyses were conducted with a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Most of the ICS/LABA combinations reduced moderate-to-severe exacerbations as compared with placebo and LABA, but none of them reduced severe exacerbations. However, many studies excluded patients receiving long-term oxygen therapy. Moderate-dose ICS was as effective as high-dose ICS in reducing exacerbations when combined with LABA. ICS/LABA combinations had a class effect with regard to the prevention of COPD exacerbations. Moderate-dose ICS/LABA combination therapy would be sufficient for COPD patients when indicated. The efficacy of ICS/LABA combination therapy appeared modest and had no impact in reducing severe exacerbations. Further studies are needed to evaluate the efficacy of ICS/LABA combination therapy in severely affected COPD patients requiring long-term oxygen therapy.

Preventive intervention possibilities in radiotherapy- and chemotherapy-induced oral mucositis : Results of meta-analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stokman, M A; Spijkervet, F K L; Boezen, H M; Schouten, J.P.; Roodenburg, J L N; de Vries, E. G. E.

The aim of these meta-analyses was to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions for the prevention of oral mucositis in cancer patients treated with head and neck radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy, with a focus on randomized clinical trials. A literature search was performed for reports of

Comprehensive research synopsis and systematic meta-analyses in Parkinson's disease genetics: The PDGene database.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christina M Lill

Full Text Available More than 800 published genetic association studies have implicated dozens of potential risk loci in Parkinson's disease (PD. To facilitate the interpretation of these findings, we have created a dedicated online resource, PDGene, that comprehensively collects and meta-analyzes all published studies in the field. A systematic literature screen of -27,000 articles yielded 828 eligible articles from which relevant data were extracted. In addition, individual-level data from three publicly available genome-wide association studies (GWAS were obtained and subjected to genotype imputation and analysis. Overall, we performed meta-analyses on more than seven million polymorphisms originating either from GWAS datasets and/or from smaller scale PD association studies. Meta-analyses on 147 SNPs were supplemented by unpublished GWAS data from up to 16,452 PD cases and 48,810 controls. Eleven loci showed genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8 association with disease risk: BST1, CCDC62/HIP1R, DGKQ/GAK, GBA, LRRK2, MAPT, MCCC1/LAMP3, PARK16, SNCA, STK39, and SYT11/RAB25. In addition, we identified novel evidence for genome-wide significant association with a polymorphism in ITGA8 (rs7077361, OR 0.88, P  =  1.3 × 10(-8. All meta-analysis results are freely available on a dedicated online database (www.pdgene.org, which is cross-linked with a customized track on the UCSC Genome Browser. Our study provides an exhaustive and up-to-date summary of the status of PD genetics research that can be readily scaled to include the results of future large-scale genetics projects, including next-generation sequencing studies.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ehealth interventions in somatic diseases: a systematic review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Elbert, Niels J; van Os-Medendorp, Harmieke; van Renselaar, Wilco; Ekeland, Anne G; Hakkaart-van Roijen, Leona; Raat, Hein; Nijsten, Tamar E C; Pasmans, Suzanne G M A

2014-04-16

eHealth potentially enhances quality of care and may reduce health care costs. However, a review of systematic reviews published in 2010 concluded that high-quality evidence on the benefits of eHealth interventions was still lacking. We conducted a systematic review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses on the effectiveness/cost-effectiveness of eHealth interventions in patients with somatic diseases to analyze whether, and to what possible extent, the outcome of recent research supports or differs from previous conclusions. Literature searches were performed in PubMed, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, and Scopus for systematic reviews and meta-analyses on eHealth interventions published between August 2009 and December 2012. Articles were screened for relevance based on preset inclusion and exclusion criteria. Citations of residual articles were screened for additional literature. Included papers were critically appraised using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement before data were extracted. Based on conclusions drawn by the authors of the included articles, reviews and meta-analyses were divided into 1 of 3 groups: suitable, promising, or limited evidence on effectiveness/cost-effectiveness. Cases of uncertainty were resolved by consensus discussion. Effect sizes were extracted from papers that included a meta-analysis. To compare our results with previous findings, a trend analysis was performed. Our literature searches yielded 31 eligible reviews, of which 20 (65%) reported on costs. Seven papers (23%) concluded that eHealth is effective/cost-effective, 13 (42%) underlined that evidence is promising, and others found limited or inconsistent proof. Methodological quality of the included reviews and meta-analyses was generally considered high. Trend analysis showed a considerable accumulation of literature on eHealth. However, a similar percentage of papers concluded that eHealth is effective/cost-effective or

The Influence of Study-Level Inference Models and Study Set Size on Coordinate-Based fMRI Meta-Analyses

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Han Bossier

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Given the increasing amount of neuroimaging studies, there is a growing need to summarize published results. Coordinate-based meta-analyses use the locations of statistically significant local maxima with possibly the associated effect sizes to aggregate studies. In this paper, we investigate the influence of key characteristics of a coordinate-based meta-analysis on (1 the balance between false and true positives and (2 the activation reliability of the outcome from a coordinate-based meta-analysis. More particularly, we consider the influence of the chosen group level model at the study level [fixed effects, ordinary least squares (OLS, or mixed effects models], the type of coordinate-based meta-analysis [Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE that only uses peak locations, fixed effects, and random effects meta-analysis that take into account both peak location and height] and the amount of studies included in the analysis (from 10 to 35. To do this, we apply a resampling scheme on a large dataset (N = 1,400 to create a test condition and compare this with an independent evaluation condition. The test condition corresponds to subsampling participants into studies and combine these using meta-analyses. The evaluation condition corresponds to a high-powered group analysis. We observe the best performance when using mixed effects models in individual studies combined with a random effects meta-analysis. Moreover the performance increases with the number of studies included in the meta-analysis. When peak height is not taken into consideration, we show that the popular ALE procedure is a good alternative in terms of the balance between type I and II errors. However, it requires more studies compared to other procedures in terms of activation reliability. Finally, we discuss the differences, interpretations, and limitations of our results.

A Bayesian approach to assess data from radionuclide activity analyses in environmental samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barrera, Manuel; Lourdes Romero, M.; Nunez-Lagos, Rafael; Bernardo, Jose M.

2007-01-01

A Bayesian statistical approach is introduced to assess experimental data from the analyses of radionuclide activity concentration in environmental samples (low activities). A theoretical model has been developed that allows the use of known prior information about the value of the measurand (activity), together with the experimental value determined through the measurement. The model has been applied to data of the Inter-laboratory Proficiency Test organised periodically among Spanish environmental radioactivity laboratories that are producing the radiochemical results for the Spanish radioactive monitoring network. A global improvement of laboratories performance is produced when this prior information is taken into account. The prior information used in this methodology is an interval within which the activity is known to be contained, but it could be extended to any other experimental quantity with a different type of prior information available

Mechanical properties of amyloid-like fibrils defined by secondary structures

Science.gov (United States)

Bortolini, C.; Jones, N. C.; Hoffmann, S. V.; Wang, C.; Besenbacher, F.; Dong, M.

2015-04-01

Amyloid and amyloid-like fibrils represent a generic class of highly ordered nanostructures that are implicated in some of the most fatal neurodegenerative diseases. On the other hand, amyloids, by possessing outstanding mechanical robustness, have also been successfully employed as functional biomaterials. For these reasons, physical and chemical factors driving fibril self-assembly and morphology are extensively studied - among these parameters, the secondary structures and the pH have been revealed to be crucial, since a variation in pH changes the fibril morphology and net chirality during protein aggregation. It is important to quantify the mechanical properties of these fibrils in order to help the design of effective strategies for treating diseases related to the presence of amyloid fibrils. In this work, we show that by changing pH the mechanical properties of amyloid-like fibrils vary as well. In particular, we reveal that these mechanical properties are strongly related to the content of secondary structures. We analysed and estimated the Young's modulus (E) by comparing the persistence length (Lp) - measured from the observation of TEM images by using statistical mechanics arguments - with the mechanical information provided by peak force quantitative nanomechanical property mapping (PF-QNM). The secondary structure content and the chirality are investigated by means of synchrotron radiation circular dichroism (SR-CD). Results arising from this study could be fruitfully used as a protocol to investigate other medical or engineering relevant peptide fibrils.Amyloid and amyloid-like fibrils represent a generic class of highly ordered nanostructures that are implicated in some of the most fatal neurodegenerative diseases. On the other hand, amyloids, by possessing outstanding mechanical robustness, have also been successfully employed as functional biomaterials. For these reasons, physical and chemical factors driving fibril self-assembly and morphology

Long working hours as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation: a multi-cohort study

Science.gov (United States)

Kivimäki, Mika; Nyberg, Solja T.; Batty, G. David; Kawachi, Ichiro; Jokela, Markus; Alfredsson, Lars; Bjorner, Jakob B.; Borritz, Marianne; Burr, Hermann; Dragano, Nico; Fransson, Eleonor I.; Heikkilä, Katriina; Knutsson, Anders; Koskenvuo, Markku; Kumari, Meena; Madsen, Ida E.H.; Nielsen, Martin L.; Nordin, Maria; Oksanen, Tuula; Pejtersen, Jan H.; Pentti, Jaana; Rugulies, Reiner; Salo, Paula; Shipley, Martin J.; Suominen, Sakari; Theorell, Töres; Vahtera, Jussi; Westerholm, Peter; Westerlund, Hugo; Steptoe, Andrew; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Hamer, Mark; Ferrie, Jane E.; Virtanen, Marianna; Tabak, Adam G.

2017-01-01

Abstract Aims Studies suggest that people who work long hours are at increased risk of stroke, but the association of long working hours with atrial fibrillation, the most common cardiac arrhythmia and a risk factor for stroke, is unknown. We examined the risk of atrial fibrillation in individuals working long hours (≥55 per week) and those working standard 35–40 h/week. Methods and results In this prospective multi-cohort study from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium, the study population was 85 494 working men and women (mean age 43.4 years) with no recorded atrial fibrillation. Working hours were assessed at study baseline (1991–2004). Mean follow-up for incident atrial fibrillation was 10 years and cases were defined using data on electrocardiograms, hospital records, drug reimbursement registers, and death certificates. We identified 1061 new cases of atrial fibrillation (10-year cumulative incidence 12.4 per 1000). After adjustment for age, sex and socioeconomic status, individuals working long hours had a 1.4-fold increased risk of atrial fibrillation compared with those working standard hours (hazard ratio = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.13–1.80, P = 0.003). There was no significant heterogeneity between the cohort-specific effect estimates (I2 = 0%, P = 0.66) and the finding remained after excluding participants with coronary heart disease or stroke at baseline or during the follow-up (N = 2006, hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.05–1.76, P = 0.0180). Adjustment for potential confounding factors, such as obesity, risky alcohol use and high blood pressure, had little impact on this association. Conclusion Individuals who worked long hours were more likely to develop atrial fibrillation than those working standard hours. PMID:28911189

A Microsoft-Excel-based tool for running and critically appraising network meta-analyses—an overview and application of NetMetaXL

OpenAIRE

Brown, Stephen; Hutton, Brian; Clifford, Tammy; Coyle, Doug; Grima, Daniel; Wells, George; Cameron, Chris

2014-01-01

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. BACKGROUND: The use of network meta-analysis has increased dramatically in recent years. WinBUGS, a freely available Bayesian software package, has been the most widely used software package to conduct network meta-ana...

Micronutrients in HIV: a Bayesian meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George M Carter

Full Text Available Approximately 28.5 million people living with HIV are eligible for treatment (CD4<500, but currently have no access to antiretroviral therapy. Reduced serum level of micronutrients is common in HIV disease. Micronutrient supplementation (MNS may mitigate disease progression and mortality.We synthesized evidence on the effect of micronutrient supplementation on mortality and rate of disease progression in HIV disease.We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central, AMED and CINAHL databases through December 2014, without language restriction, for studies of greater than 3 micronutrients versus any or no comparator. We built a hierarchical Bayesian random effects model to synthesize results. Inferences are based on the posterior distribution of the population effects; posterior distributions were approximated by Markov chain Monte Carlo in OpenBugs.From 2166 initial references, we selected 49 studies for full review and identified eight reporting on disease progression and/or mortality. Bayesian synthesis of data from 2,249 adults in three studies estimated the relative risk of disease progression in subjects on MNS vs. control as 0.62 (95% credible interval, 0.37, 0.96. Median number needed to treat is 8.4 (4.8, 29.9 and the Bayes Factor 53.4. Based on data reporting on 4,095 adults reporting mortality in 7 randomized controlled studies, the RR was 0.84 (0.38, 1.85, NNT is 25 (4.3, ∞.MNS significantly and substantially slows disease progression in HIV+ adults not on ARV, and possibly reduces mortality. Micronutrient supplements are effective in reducing progression with a posterior probability of 97.9%. Considering MNS low cost and lack of adverse effects, MNS should be standard of care for HIV+ adults not yet on ARV.

Bayesian mixture analysis for metagenomic community profiling.

Science.gov (United States)

Morfopoulou, Sofia; Plagnol, Vincent

2015-09-15

Deep sequencing of clinical samples is now an established tool for the detection of infectious pathogens, with direct medical applications. The large amount of data generated produces an opportunity to detect species even at very low levels, provided that computational tools can effectively profile the relevant metagenomic communities. Data interpretation is complicated by the fact that short sequencing reads can match multiple organisms and by the lack of completeness of existing databases, in particular for viral pathogens. Here we present metaMix, a Bayesian mixture model framework for resolving complex metagenomic mixtures. We show that the use of parallel Monte Carlo Markov chains for the exploration of the species space enables the identification of the set of species most likely to contribute to the mixture. We demonstrate the greater accuracy of metaMix compared with relevant methods, particularly for profiling complex communities consisting of several related species. We designed metaMix specifically for the analysis of deep transcriptome sequencing datasets, with a focus on viral pathogen detection; however, the principles are generally applicable to all types of metagenomic mixtures. metaMix is implemented as a user friendly R package, freely available on CRAN: http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/metaMix sofia.morfopoulou.10@ucl.ac.uk Supplementary data are available at Bionformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Meta-analyses and Forest plots using a microsoft excel spreadsheet: step-by-step guide focusing on descriptive data analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Neyeloff, Jeruza L; Fuchs, Sandra C; Moreira, Leila B

2012-01-20

Meta-analyses are necessary to synthesize data obtained from primary research, and in many situations reviews of observational studies are the only available alternative. General purpose statistical packages can meta-analyze data, but usually require external macros or coding. Commercial specialist software is available, but may be expensive and focused in a particular type of primary data. Most available softwares have limitations in dealing with descriptive data, and the graphical display of summary statistics such as incidence and prevalence is unsatisfactory. Analyses can be conducted using Microsoft Excel, but there was no previous guide available. We constructed a step-by-step guide to perform a meta-analysis in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, using either fixed-effect or random-effects models. We have also developed a second spreadsheet capable of producing customized forest plots. It is possible to conduct a meta-analysis using only Microsoft Excel. More important, to our knowledge this is the first description of a method for producing a statistically adequate but graphically appealing forest plot summarizing descriptive data, using widely available software.

Meta-analyses and Forest plots using a microsoft excel spreadsheet: step-by-step guide focusing on descriptive data analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neyeloff Jeruza L

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Meta-analyses are necessary to synthesize data obtained from primary research, and in many situations reviews of observational studies are the only available alternative. General purpose statistical packages can meta-analyze data, but usually require external macros or coding. Commercial specialist software is available, but may be expensive and focused in a particular type of primary data. Most available softwares have limitations in dealing with descriptive data, and the graphical display of summary statistics such as incidence and prevalence is unsatisfactory. Analyses can be conducted using Microsoft Excel, but there was no previous guide available. Findings We constructed a step-by-step guide to perform a meta-analysis in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, using either fixed-effect or random-effects models. We have also developed a second spreadsheet capable of producing customized forest plots. Conclusions It is possible to conduct a meta-analysis using only Microsoft Excel. More important, to our knowledge this is the first description of a method for producing a statistically adequate but graphically appealing forest plot summarizing descriptive data, using widely available software.

Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

CERN Document Server

Zeevat, Henk

2015-01-01

The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.

The PRISMA statement for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of studies that evaluate health care interventions: explanation and elaboration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liberati, Alessandro; Altman, Douglas G; Tetzlaff, Jennifer

2009-01-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are essential to summarize evidence relating to efficacy and safety of health care interventions accurately and reliably. The clarity and transparency of these reports, however, is not optimal. Poor reporting of systematic reviews diminishes their value...... to clinicians, policy makers, and other users. Since the development of the QUOROM (QUality Of Reporting Of Meta-analysis) Statement--a reporting guideline published in 1999--there have been several conceptual, methodological, and practical advances regarding the conduct and reporting of systematic reviews...... and meta-analyses. Also, reviews of published systematic reviews have found that key information about these studies is often poorly reported. Realizing these issues, an international group that included experienced authors and methodologists developed PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic...

Baseline and postoperative levels of C-reactive protein and interleukins as inflammatory predictors of atrial fibrillation following cardiac surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Weymann, Alexander; Popov, Aron-Frederik; Sabashnikov, Anton; Ali-Hasan-Al-Saegh, Sadeq; Ryazanov, Mikhail; Tse, Gary; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Liu, Tong; Lotfaliani, Mohammadreza; Sedaghat, Meghdad; Baker, William L; Ghanei, Azam; Yavuz, Senol; Zeriouh, Mohamed; Izadpanah, Payman; Dehghan, Hamidreza; Testa, Luca; Nikfard, Maryam; Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; Mashhour, Ahmed; Nombela-Franco, Luis; Rezaeisadrabadi, Mohammad; D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Zhigalov, Konstantin; Benedetto, Umberto; Aminolsharieh Najafi, Soroosh; Szczechowicz, Marcin; Roever, Leonardo; Meng, Lei; Gong, Mengqi; Deshmukh, Abhishek J; Palmerini, Tullio; Linde, Cecilia; Filipiak, Krzysztof J; Stone, Gregg W; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Calkins, Hugh

2018-01-01

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a leading arrhythmia with high incidence and serious clinical implications after cardiac surgery. Cardiac surgery is associated with systemic inflammatory response including increase in cytokines and activation of endothelial and leukocyte responses. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the strength of evidence for evaluating the association of inflammatory markers, such as C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukins (IL), with POAF following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), isolated valvular surgery, or a combination of these procedures. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies evaluating measured baseline (from one week before surgical procedures) and postoperative levels (until one week after surgical procedures) of inflammatory markers in patients with POAF. A compre-hensive search was performed in electronic medical databases (Medline/PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Science Direct, and Google Scholar) from their inception through May 2017 to identify relevant studies. A comprehensive subgroup analysis was performed to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. A literature search of all major databases retrieved 1014 studies. After screening, 42 studies were analysed including a total of 8398 patients. Pooled analysis showed baseline levels of CRP (standard mean difference [SMD] 0.457 mg/L, p < 0.001), baseline levels of IL-6 (SMD 0.398 pg/mL, p < 0.001), postoperative levels of CRP (SMD 0.576 mg/L, p < 0.001), postoperative levels of IL-6 (SMD 1.66 pg/mL, p < 0.001), postoperative levels of IL-8 (SMD 0.839 pg/mL, p < 0.001), and postoperative levels of IL-10 (SMD 0.590 pg/mL, p < 0.001) to be relevant inflammatory parameters significantly associated with POAF. Perioperative inflammation is proposed to be involved in the pathogenesis of POAF. Therefore, perioperative assessment of CRP, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10 can help clinicians in terms of predicting and monitoring for POAF.

The Evaluation of Bivariate Mixed Models in Meta-analyses of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies with SAS, Stata and R.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogelgesang, Felicitas; Schlattmann, Peter; Dewey, Marc

2018-05-01

Meta-analyses require a thoroughly planned procedure to obtain unbiased overall estimates. From a statistical point of view not only model selection but also model implementation in the software affects the results. The present simulation study investigates the accuracy of different implementations of general and generalized bivariate mixed models in SAS (using proc mixed, proc glimmix and proc nlmixed), Stata (using gllamm, xtmelogit and midas) and R (using reitsma from package mada and glmer from package lme4). Both models incorporate the relationship between sensitivity and specificity - the two outcomes of interest in meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies - utilizing random effects. Model performance is compared in nine meta-analytic scenarios reflecting the combination of three sizes for meta-analyses (89, 30 and 10 studies) with three pairs of sensitivity/specificity values (97%/87%; 85%/75%; 90%/93%). The evaluation of accuracy in terms of bias, standard error and mean squared error reveals that all implementations of the generalized bivariate model calculate sensitivity and specificity estimates with deviations less than two percentage points. proc mixed which together with reitsma implements the general bivariate mixed model proposed by Reitsma rather shows convergence problems. The random effect parameters are in general underestimated. This study shows that flexibility and simplicity of model specification together with convergence robustness should influence implementation recommendations, as the accuracy in terms of bias was acceptable in all implementations using the generalized approach. Schattauer GmbH.

An umbrella review of meta-analyses of interventions to improve maternal outcomes for teen mothers.

Science.gov (United States)

SmithBattle, Lee; Loman, Deborah G; Chantamit-O-Pas, Chutima; Schneider, Joanne Kraenzle

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to perform an umbrella review of meta-analyses of intervention studies designed to improve outcomes of pregnant or parenting teenagers. An extensive search retrieved nine reports which provided 21 meta-analyses analyses. Data were extracted by two reviewers. Methodological quality was assessed using the AMSTAR Instrument. Most effect sizes were small but high quality studies showed significant outcomes for reduced low birth weight (RR = 0.60), repeat pregnancies/births (OR = 0.47-0.62), maternal education (OR = 1.21-1.83), and maternal employment (OR = 1.26). Several parenting outcomes (parent-child teaching interaction post-intervention [SMD = -0.91] and at follow-up [SMD = -1.07], and parent-child relationship post-intervention [SMD = -0.71] and at follow-up [SMD = -0.90]) were significant, but sample sizes were very small. Many reports did not include moderator analyses. Behavioral interventions offer limited resources and occur too late to mitigate the educational and social disparities that precede teen pregnancy. Future intervention research and policies that redress the social determinants of early childbearing are recommended. Copyright © 2017 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual patient data meta-analyses in head and neck carcinoma: what have we learnt?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pignon, J.P.; Baujat, B.; Bourhis, J.

2005-01-01

Carcinoma of the upper aero-digestive tract (oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, nasopharynx, larynx) are frequent tumors for which surgery and/or radiotherapy are the main therapeutic agents. The main results of meta-analyses based on the collection of individual patients data are reported: 1) The meta-analysis on chemotherapy, regrouping data of nearly 11,000 patients issued from 63 randomized trials showed an absolute benefit of 4% at five years in overall survival, in favor of chemotherapy (P < 0.0001). Most of the benefit was seen with concomitant radio-chemotherapy, however with a relatively large heterogeneity in this subgroup of trials. An update of this meta-analysis was performed including 24 additional trials, which confirmed the magnitude of the benefit due to concomitant chemotherapy (8% at 5 years). 2) The meta-analysis on larynx preservation, using induction chemotherapy in larynx and hypopharynx carcinomas. No significant difference was seen between the control arm with total laryngectomy and the larynx preservation approach. 3) The meta-analysis on chemotherapy in nasopharynx carcinomas, from the data of 11 randomized trials including 2722 patients, and comparing the radiotherapy to radio-chemotherapy (1979-2001). The results showed an absolute benefit of 6% at five years in overall survival, in favor of chemotherapy (P < 0.0001). Most of the benefit was seen with concomitant radio-chemotherapy. 4) Finally, a meta-analysis on altered fractionated RT, compared to conventional RT in 15 randomized trials regrouping 6515 patients. The results showed a small but significant improvement in favor of altered fractionated RT for overall survival and local control with an absolute benefit at five years of 3 and 6%, respectively. (author)

Adjunctive Nutraceuticals for Depression: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarris, Jerome; Murphy, Jenifer; Mischoulon, David; Papakostas, George I; Fava, Maurizio; Berk, Michael; Ng, Chee H

2016-06-01

There is burgeoning interest in augmentation strategies for improving inadequate response to antidepressants. The adjunctive use of standardized pharmaceutical-grade nutrients, known as nutraceuticals, has the potential to modulate several neurochemical pathways implicated in depression. While many studies have been conducted in this area, to date no specialized systematic review (or meta-analysis) has been conducted. A systematic search of PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science was conducted up to December 2015 for clinical trials using adjunctive nutrients for depression. Where sufficient data were available, a random-effects model analyzed the standard mean difference between treatment and placebo in the change from baseline to endpoint, combining the effect size data. Funnel plot and heterogeneity analyses were also performed. Primarily positive results were found for replicated studies testing S-adenosylmethionine (SAMe), methylfolate, omega-3 (primarily EPA or ethyl-EPA), and vitamin D, with positive isolated studies for creatine, folinic acid, and an amino acid combination. Mixed results were found for zinc, folic acid, vitamin C, and tryptophan, with nonsignificant results for inositol. No major adverse effects were noted in the studies (aside from minor digestive disturbance). A meta-analysis of adjunctive omega-3 versus placebo revealed a significant and moderate to strong effect in favor of omega-3. Conversely, a meta-analysis of folic acid revealed a nonsignificant difference from placebo. Marked study heterogeneity was found in a Higgins test for both omega-3 and folic acid studies; funnel plots also revealed asymmetry (reflecting potential study bias). Current evidence supports adjunctive use of SAMe, methylfolate, omega-3, and vitamin D with antidepressants to reduce depressive symptoms.

An application of the 'Bayesian cohort model' to nuclear power plant cost analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kenji; Nakamura, Takashi

2002-01-01

We have developed a new method for identifying the effects of calendar year, plant age and commercial operation starting year on the costs and performances of nuclear power plants and also developed an analysis system running on personal computers. The method extends the Bayesian cohort model for time series social survey data proposed by one of the authors. The proposed method was shown to be able to separate the above three effects more properly than traditional methods such as taking simple means by time domain. The analyses of US nuclear plant cost and performance data by using the proposed method suggest that many of the US plants spent relatively long time and much capital cost for modification at their age of about 10 to 20 years, but that, after those ages, they performed fairly well with lower and stabilized O and M and additional capital costs. (author)

A comparison of discontinuation rates of tofacitinib and biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs in rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Sun-Kyeong; Lee, Min-Young; Jang, Eun-Jin; Kim, Hye-Lin; Ha, Dong-Mun; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the discontinuation rates of tofacitinib and biologics (tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi), abatacept, rituximab, and tocilizumab) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients considering inadequate responses (IRs) to previous treatment(s). Randomised controlled trials of tofacitinib and biologics - reporting at least one total discontinuation, discontinuation due to lack of efficacy (LOE), and discontinuation due to adverse events (AEs) - were identified through systematic review. The analyses were conducted for patients with IRs to conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (cDMARDs) and for patients with biologics-IR, separately. Bayesian network meta-analysis was used to estimate rate ratio (RR) of a biologic relative to tofacitinib with 95% credible interval (CrI), and probability of RR being tofacitinib and biologics in the cDMARDs-IR group. In the biologics-IR group, however, TNFi (RR 0.17, 95% CrI 0.01-3.61, P[RRtofacitinib did. Despite the difference, discontinuation cases owing to LOE and AEs revealed that tofacitinib was comparable to the biologics. The comparability of discontinuation rate between tofacitinib and biologics was different based on previous treatments and discontinuation reasons: LOE, AEs, and total (due to other reasons). Therefore, those factors need to be considered to decide the optimal treatment strategy.

The prevalence of child maltreatment across the globe: Review of a series of meta-analyses.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stoltenborgh, M.; Bakermans-Kranenburg, M.J.; Alink, L.R.A.; van IJzendoorn, M.H.

2015-01-01

In this review, we combine and compare the results of a series of meta-analyses on the prevalence of child sexual, physical and emotional abuse and physical and emotional neglect, including 244 publications and 551 prevalence rates for the various types of maltreatment. Child maltreatment research

Coffee consumption and health: umbrella review of meta-analyses of multiple health outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Poole, Robin; Kennedy, Oliver J; Roderick, Paul; Fallowfield, Jonathan A; Hayes, Peter C; Parkes, Julie

2017-11-22

Objectives  To evaluate the existing evidence for associations between coffee consumption and multiple health outcomes. Design  Umbrella review of the evidence across meta-analyses of observational and interventional studies of coffee consumption and any health outcome. Data sources  PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and screening of references. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies  Meta-analyses of both observational and interventional studies that examined the associations between coffee consumption and any health outcome in any adult population in all countries and all settings. Studies of genetic polymorphisms for coffee metabolism were excluded. Results  The umbrella review identified 201 meta-analyses of observational research with 67 unique health outcomes and 17 meta-analyses of interventional research with nine unique outcomes. Coffee consumption was more often associated with benefit than harm for a range of health outcomes across exposures including high versus low, any versus none, and one extra cup a day. There was evidence of a non-linear association between consumption and some outcomes, with summary estimates indicating largest relative risk reduction at intakes of three to four cups a day versus none, including all cause mortality (relative risk 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.79 to 0.88), cardiovascular mortality (0.81, 0.72 to 0.90), and cardiovascular disease (0.85, 0.80 to 0.90). High versus low consumption was associated with an 18% lower risk of incident cancer (0.82, 0.74 to 0.89). Consumption was also associated with a lower risk of several specific cancers and neurological, metabolic, and liver conditions. Harmful associations were largely nullified by adequate adjustment for smoking, except in pregnancy, where high versus low/no consumption was associated with low birth weight (odds ratio 1.31, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.67), preterm birth in the first (1.22, 1.00 to 1.49) and second (1

Integrating genetic, transcriptional, and functional analyses to identify 5 novel genes for atrial fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sinner, Moritz F; Tucker, Nathan R; Lunetta, Kathryn L

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects >30 million individuals worldwide and is associated with an increased risk of stroke, heart failure, and death. AF is highly heritable, yet the genetic basis for the arrhythmia remains incompletely understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: To identify new AF-re...

LEFT ATRIAL APPENDAGE CLOSURE AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO WARFARIN FOR STROKE PREVENTION IN ATRIAL FIBRILLATION: A PATIENT¬LEVEL META¬ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Holmes D.R. Jr, Doshi S.K., Kar S., et al. Left Atrial Appendage Closure as an Alternative to Warfarin for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation: A Patient­Level Meta­Analysis // J. Am. Coll. Cardiol. – 2015. – Vol. 65. – P. 2614–2623.

Analysing and exemplifying forensic conclusion criteria in terms of Bayesian decision theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Biedermann, A; Bozza, S; Taroni, F

2018-03-01

There is ongoing discussion in forensic science and the law about the nature of the conclusions reached based on scientific evidence, and on how such conclusions - and conclusion criteria - may be justified by rational argument. Examples, among others, are encountered in fields such as fingermarks (e.g., 'this fingermark comes from Mr. A's left thumb'), handwriting examinations (e.g., 'the questioned signature is that of Mr. A'), kinship analyses (e.g., 'Mr. A is the father of child C') or anthropology (e.g., 'these are human remains'). Considerable developments using formal methods of reasoning based on, for example (Bayesian) decision theory, are available in literature, but currently such reference principles are not explicitly used in operational forensic reporting and ensuing decision-making. Moreover, applied examples, illustrating the principles, are scarce. A potential consequence of this in practical proceedings, and hence a cause of concern, is that underlying ingredients of decision criteria (such as losses quantifying the undesirability of adverse decision consequences), are not properly dealt with. There is merit, thus, in pursuing the study and discussion of practical examples, demonstrating that formal decision-theoretic principles are not merely conceptual considerations. Actually, these principles can be shown to underpin practical decision-making procedures and existing legal decision criteria, though often not explicitly apparent as such. In this paper, we will present such examples and discuss their properties from a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective. We will argue that these are essential concepts for an informed discourse on decision-making across forensic disciplines and the development of a coherent view on this topic. We will also emphasize that these principles are of normative nature in the sense that they provide standards against which actual judgment and decision-making may be compared. Most importantly, these standards are

Does Male Circumcision Protect against Sexually Transmitted Infections? Arguments and Meta-Analyses to the Contrary Fail to Withstand Scrutiny.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Brian J; Hankins, Catherine A; Tobian, Aaron A R; Krieger, John N; Klausner, Jeffrey D

2014-01-01

We critically evaluate a recent article by Van Howe involving 12 meta-analyses that concludes, contrary to current evidence, that male circumcision increases the risk of various common sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Our detailed scrutiny reveals that these meta-analyses (1) failed to include results of all relevant studies, especially data from randomized controlled trials, (2) introduced bias through use of inappropriate control groups, (3) altered original data, in the case of human papillomavirus (HPV), by questionable adjustments for "sampling bias," (4) failed to control for confounders through use of crude odds ratios, and (5) used unnecessarily complicated methods without adequate explanation, so impeding replication by others. Interventions that can reduce the prevalence of STIs are important to international health. Of major concern is the global epidemic of oncogenic types of HPV that contribute to the burden of genital cancers. Meta-analyses, when well conducted, can better inform public health policy and medical practice, but when seriously flawed can have detrimental consequences. Our critical evaluation leads us to reject the findings and conclusions of Van Howe on multiple grounds. Our timely analysis thus reaffirms the medical evidence supporting male circumcision as a desirable intervention for STI prevention.

Sleep Characteristics in Children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder: Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Díaz-Román, Amparo; Hita-Yáñez, Eva; Buela-Casal, Gualberto

2016-05-15

Sleep disturbances have been associated with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), but such relationship is still unclear. The results from the studies conducted do not provide enough evidence to support a sleep physiology inherent to ADHD. This study tries to determine if that sleep physiology really exists by comparing children with ADHD and control children in some sleep parameters. A search was conducted in several databases (Web of Science, Scopus, Pubmed and PsycINFO), and a manual search, to retrieve all the articles available from 1987 until March 2014. Of 8,678 non-duplicate studies retrieved, 11 studies met the inclusion and methodological quality criteria. Two meta-analyses were performed with eight of those studies, depending on data provided by them: polysomnographic or actigraphic. A fixed-effects model, and the standardized mean difference (SMD) as the index of effect size, were used in both meta-analyses. Significant differences were found only in the meta-analysis with polysomnography as outcome. Children with ADHD were found to spend more time in stage 1 sleep than controls (pooled SMD = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.08-0.55, p value = 0.009). Although few differences in sleep between children with ADHD and controls have been found in this review, further studies are required on this matter. Those studies should consider some variables discussed in this review, in order to obtain useful and reliable conclusions for research and clinical practice. Particularly, the influence of assessment criteria and ADHD subtypes in the sleep characteristics of children with ADHD should be addressed. © 2016 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

How Effective Are Active Videogames Among the Young and the Old? Adding Meta-analyses to Two Recent Systematic Reviews.

Science.gov (United States)

van 't Riet, Jonathan; Crutzen, Rik; Lu, Amy Shirong

2014-10-01

Two recent systematic reviews have surveyed the existing evidence for the effectiveness of active videogames in children/adolescents and in elderly people. In the present study, effect sizes were added to these systematic reviews, and meta-analyses were performed. All reviewed studies were considered for inclusion in the meta-analyses, but only studies were included that investigated the effectiveness of active videogames, used an experimental design, and used actual health outcomes as the outcome measures (body mass index for children/adolescents [k=5] and functional balance for the elderly [k=6]). The average effect of active videogames in children and adolescents was small and nonsignificant: Hedges' g=0.20 (95 percent confidence interval, -0.08 to 0.48). Limited heterogeneity was observed, and no moderator analyses were performed. For the effect of active videogames on functional balance in the elderly, the analyses revealed a medium-sized and significant effect of g=0.68 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.13-1.24). For the elderly studies, substantial heterogeneity was observed. Moderator analyses showed that there were no significant effects of using a no-treatment control group versus an alternative treatment control group or of using games that were especially created for health-promotion purposes versus off-the-shelf games. Also, intervention duration and frequency, sample size, study quality, and dropout did not significantly moderate the effect of active videogames. The results of these meta-analyses provide preliminary evidence that active videogames can have positive effects on relevant outcome measures in children/adolescents and elderly individuals.

Atrial fibrillation and hyperthyroidism: A literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, Vivek; Taha, Wael; Kundumadam, Shanker; Khan, Mazhar

Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia worldwide with increasing frequency noted with age. Hyperthyroidism is a well-known cause of atrial fibrillation with a 16%-60% prevalence of atrial fibrillation in patients with known hyperthyroidism Ross et al. (2016). While hyperthyroidism as a causative factor of atrial fibrillation is well established, this literature review aims to answer several questions on this topic including: 1. The relationship of atrial fibrillation to hyperthyroidism 2. Atrial fibrillation as a predictor of hyperthyroidism 3. The pathophysiology of thyrotoxic atrial fibrillation 4. Subclinical hyperthyroidism and the relationship with atrial fibrillation 5. Cardioversion and Catheter ablation of hyperthyroid patients with atrial fibrillation 6. Thrombotic risk of hyperthyroid patients with atrial fibrillation 7. Management of Thyrotoxic Atrial fibrillation 8. Pharmacological rhythm control in patients with hyperthyroidism and atrial fibrillation 9. Treatment of Hyperthyroidism to prevent atrial fibrillation 10. Clinical Implications of Hyperthyroidism and Atrial Fibrillation. Copyright © 2017 Cardiological Society of India. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long working hours as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation: a multi-cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kivimäki, Mika; Nyberg, Solja T; Batty, G David; Kawachi, Ichiro; Jokela, Markus; Alfredsson, Lars; Bjorner, Jakob B; Borritz, Marianne; Burr, Hermann; Dragano, Nico; Fransson, Eleonor I; Heikkilä, Katriina; Knutsson, Anders; Koskenvuo, Markku; Kumari, Meena; Madsen, Ida E H; Nielsen, Martin L; Nordin, Maria; Oksanen, Tuula; Pejtersen, Jan H; Pentti, Jaana; Rugulies, Reiner; Salo, Paula; Shipley, Martin J; Suominen, Sakari; Theorell, Töres; Vahtera, Jussi; Westerholm, Peter; Westerlund, Hugo; Steptoe, Andrew; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Hamer, Mark; Ferrie, Jane E; Virtanen, Marianna; Tabak, Adam G

2017-09-07

Studies suggest that people who work long hours are at increased risk of stroke, but the association of long working hours with atrial fibrillation, the most common cardiac arrhythmia and a risk factor for stroke, is unknown. We examined the risk of atrial fibrillation in individuals working long hours (≥55 per week) and those working standard 35-40 h/week. In this prospective multi-cohort study from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium, the study population was 85 494 working men and women (mean age 43.4 years) with no recorded atrial fibrillation. Working hours were assessed at study baseline (1991-2004). Mean follow-up for incident atrial fibrillation was 10 years and cases were defined using data on electrocardiograms, hospital records, drug reimbursement registers, and death certificates. We identified 1061 new cases of atrial fibrillation (10-year cumulative incidence 12.4 per 1000). After adjustment for age, sex and socioeconomic status, individuals working long hours had a 1.4-fold increased risk of atrial fibrillation compared with those working standard hours (hazard ratio = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.13-1.80, P = 0.003). There was no significant heterogeneity between the cohort-specific effect estimates (I2 = 0%, P = 0.66) and the finding remained after excluding participants with coronary heart disease or stroke at baseline or during the follow-up (N = 2006, hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.05-1.76, P = 0.0180). Adjustment for potential confounding factors, such as obesity, risky alcohol use and high blood pressure, had little impact on this association. Individuals who worked long hours were more likely to develop atrial fibrillation than those working standard hours. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Bayesian analyses of Yemeni mitochondrial genomes suggest multiple migration events with Africa and Western Eurasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Vyas, Deven N; Kitchen, Andrew; Miró-Herrans, Aida T; Pearson, Laurel N; Al-Meeri, Ali; Mulligan, Connie J

2016-03-01

Anatomically, modern humans are thought to have migrated out of Africa ∼60,000 years ago in the first successful global dispersal. This initial migration may have passed through Yemen, a region that has experienced multiple migrations events with Africa and Eurasia throughout human history. We use Bayesian phylogenetics to determine how ancient and recent migrations have shaped Yemeni mitogenomic variation. We sequenced 113 mitogenomes from multiple Yemeni regions with a focus on haplogroups M, N, and L3(xM,N) as these groups have the oldest evolutionary history outside of Africa. We performed Bayesian evolutionary analyses to generate time-measured phylogenies calibrated by Neanderthal and Denisovan mitogenomes in order to determine the age of Yemeni-specific clades. As defined by Yemeni monophyly, Yemeni in situ evolution is limited to the Holocene or latest Pleistocene (ages of clades in subhaplogroups L3b1a1a, L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, N1a1a3, and N1a3 range from 2 to 14 kya) and is often situated within broader Horn of Africa/southern Arabia in situ evolution (L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, and N1a1a3 ages range from 7 to 29 kya). Five subhaplogroups show no monophyly and are candidates for Holocene migration into Yemen (L0a2a2a, L3d1a1a, L3i2, M1a1b, and N1b1a). Yemeni mitogenomes are largely the product of Holocene migration, and subsequent in situ evolution, from Africa and western Eurasia. However, we hypothesize that recent population movements may obscure the genetic signature of more ancient migrations. Additional research, e.g., analyses of Yemeni nuclear genetic data, is needed to better reconstruct the complex population and migration histories associated with Out of Africa. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Intracerebral haemorrhage risk in microbleed-positive ischaemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation: Preliminary meta-analysis of cohorts and anticoagulation decision schema.

Science.gov (United States)

Charidimou, Andreas; Boulouis, Gregoire; Shams, Sara; Calvet, David; Shoamanesh, Ashkan

2017-07-15

Whether ischaemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) on MRI can be safely anticoagulated is a hotly debated topic. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of published aggregate data, to investigate the risk of subsequent intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) based on CMBs presence in this stroke population, generally considered for oral anticoagulation. We also suggest a decision-making schema for anticoagulation use in this setting. We searched PubMed for relevant observational studies. Random effects models with DerSimonian-Laird weights were used to investigated the association between CMBs presence at baseline MRI and ICH or ischaemic stroke during follow-up. Four studies, with slightly heterogeneous design, including 990 ischaemic stroke patients were pooled in a meta-analysis (crude CMBs prevalence: 25%; 95%CI: 17%-33%). The median follow-up ranged between 17 and 37months. The future symptomatic ICH rate was 1.6% (16/990), while recurrent ischaemic stroke rate was 5.9% (58/990). Baseline CMB presence was associated with increased risk of symptomatic ICH during follow-up compared to patients without CMBs (OR: 4.16; 95%CI: 1.54-11.25; p=0.005). There was no association between CMBs presence and recurrent ischaemic stroke risk. We have shown that the presence of CMBs in cohorts of ischaemic stroke patients, most with AF on warfarin, is associated with a 4-fold increase in subsequent ICH (but not ischaemic stroke) risk (Class III evidence). These pooled estimates are useful for future trials design. We propose a simple data-driven anticoagulation schema which awaits validation and refinement as new prospective data are accumulated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mink S38G Gene Polymorphism and Atrial Fibrillation in the Chinese Population: A Meta-Analysis of 1871 Participants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan-yan Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Mink gene S38G polymorphism in the β-subunit of slow activating component of the delayed rectifier potassium channel current potassium channel has been associated with increased atrial fibrillation (AF risk. However, the individual studies results were still controversial. To investigate the association of Mink S38G gene polymorphisms with AF, a meta-analysis including 1871 subjects from six individual studies was conducted. Mink S38G gene polymorphism was significantly related to AF under allelic (OR: 1.380, 95% CI: 1.200–1.600, P<0.00001, recessive (OR: 1.193, 95% CI: 1.033–1.377, P=0.017, dominant (OR: 1.057, 95% CI: 1.025–1.089, P<0.00001, additive (OR: 1.105, 95% CI: 1.036–1.178, P=0.002, homozygous (OR: 1.128, 95% CI: 1.068–1.191, P<0.00001, and heterozygous genetic models (OR: 1.078, 95% CI: 1.014–1.146, P=0.016. A significant association between Mink S38G gene polymorphism and AF risk was found. G allele carriers may predispose to AF.

Combining Volcano Monitoring Timeseries Analyses with Bayesian Belief Networks to Update Hazard Forecast Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Odbert, Henry; Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy

2015-04-01

Volcanic hazard assessments must combine information about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena with observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show how our method

The preventive effect of statin therapy on new-onset and recurrent atrial fibrillation in patients not undergoing invasive cardiac interventions ☆

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bang, Casper Niels Furbo; Greve, Anders M; Abdulla, Jawdat

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Previous meta-analyses suggest that pre-procedural use of statin therapy may reduce atrial fibrillation (AF) following invasive cardiac interventions (coronary artery by-pass grafting and percutaneous coronary intervention). However, the current evidence on the benefit of statins...... unrelated to invasive cardiac interventions has not been clarified systematically. METHODS: Through a systematic literature search, trials examining the effect of statin therapy on AF were selected. Trials using statins before any percutaneous or surgical cardiac interventions were excluded. RESULTS......: The search identified 11 randomized and 16 observational eligible studies, totaling 106,640 patients receiving statin therapy and 129,305 serving as controls. Fourteen studies investigated the effect of statins on new-onset AF, 13 studies investigated the effect of statins on recurrent AF and one in both new...

Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

Science.gov (United States)

Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-01

Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Stop-and-go kinetics in amyloid fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper; Fonslet, Jesper; Andersen, Christian Beyschau

2010-01-01

Many human diseases are associated with protein aggregation and fibrillation. We present experiments on in vitro glucagon fibrillation using total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy, providing real-time measurements of single-fibril growth. We find that amyloid fibrils grow in an intermi......Many human diseases are associated with protein aggregation and fibrillation. We present experiments on in vitro glucagon fibrillation using total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy, providing real-time measurements of single-fibril growth. We find that amyloid fibrils grow...

Benefits of Exercise Training For Computer-Based Staff: A Meta Analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mothna Mohammed

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Background: Office workers sit down to work for approximately 8 hours a day and, as a result, many of them do not have enough time for any form of physical exercise. This can lead to musculoskeletal discomforts, especially low back pain and recently, many researchers focused on home/office-based exercise training for prevention/treatment of low back pain among this population. Objective: This Meta analyses paper tried to discuss about the latest suggested exercises for the office workers based on the mechanisms and theories behind low back pain among office workers. Method: In this Meta analyses the author tried to collect relevant papers which were published previously on the subject. Google Scholar, Scopus, and PubMed were used as sources to find the articles. Only articles that were published using the same methodology, including office workers, musculoskeletal discomforts, low back pain, and exercise training keywords, were selected. Studies that failed to report sufficient sample statistics, or lacked a substantial review of past academic scholarship and/or clear methodologies, were excluded. Results: Limited evidence regarding the prevention of, and treatment methods for, musculoskeletal discomfort, especially those in the low back, among office workers, is available. The findings showed that training exercises had a significant effect (p<0.05 on low back pain discomfort scores and decreased pain levels in response to office-based exercise training. Conclusion: Office-based exercise training can affect pain/discomfort scores among office workers through positive effects on flexibility and strength of muscles. As such, it should be suggested to occupational therapists as a practical way for the treatment/prevention of low back pain among office workers.

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

Electroconvulsive therapy in the continuation and maintenance treatment of depression: Systematic review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, Alby; Phutane, Vivek H; Clarke, Sandy; Prudic, Joan

2018-05-01

Acute course of electroconvulsive therapy is effective in inducing remission from depression, but recurrence rate is unacceptably high following termination of electroconvulsive therapy despite continued pharmacotherapy. Continuation electroconvulsive therapy and maintenance electroconvulsive therapy have been studied for their efficacy in preventing relapse and recurrence of depression. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to examine the efficacy of continuation electroconvulsive therapy and maintenance electroconvulsive therapy in preventing relapse and recurrence of depression in comparison to antidepressant pharmacotherapy alone. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, clinicaltrials.gov and Cochrane register of controlled trials from the database inception to December 2016 without restriction on language or publication status for randomized trials of continuation electroconvulsive therapy and maintenance electroconvulsive therapy. Two independent Cochrane reviewers extracted the data in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines for systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The risk of bias was assessed using four domains of the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias Tool. Outcomes were pooled using random effect model. The primary outcome was relapse or recurrence of depression. Five studies involving 436 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Analysis of the pooled data showed that continuation electroconvulsive therapy and maintenance electroconvulsive therapy, both with pharmacotherapy, were associated with significantly fewer relapses and recurrences than pharmacotherapy alone at 6 months and 1 year after a successful acute course of electroconvulsive therapy (risk ratio = 0.64, 95% confidence interval = [0.41, 0.98], p = 0.04, risk ratio = 0.46, 95% confidence interval = [0.21, 0.98], p = 0.05, respectively). There was insufficient data to perform a meta-analysis of stand

Spike-Based Bayesian-Hebbian Learning of Temporal Sequences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tully, Philip J; Lindén, Henrik; Hennig, Matthias H

2016-01-01

Many cognitive and motor functions are enabled by the temporal representation and processing of stimuli, but it remains an open issue how neocortical microcircuits can reliably encode and replay such sequences of information. To better understand this, a modular attractor memory network is proposed...... in which meta-stable sequential attractor transitions are learned through changes to synaptic weights and intrinsic excitabilities via the spike-based Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) learning rule. We find that the formation of distributed memories, embodied by increased periods...

Meta-DiSc: a software for meta-analysis of test accuracy data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zamora, Javier; Abraira, Victor; Muriel, Alfonso; Khan, Khalid; Coomarasamy, Arri

2006-07-12

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of test accuracy studies are increasingly being recognised as central in guiding clinical practice. However, there is currently no dedicated and comprehensive software for meta-analysis of diagnostic data. In this article, we present Meta-DiSc, a Windows-based, user-friendly, freely available (for academic use) software that we have developed, piloted, and validated to perform diagnostic meta-analysis. Meta-DiSc a) allows exploration of heterogeneity, with a variety of statistics including chi-square, I-squared and Spearman correlation tests, b) implements meta-regression techniques to explore the relationships between study characteristics and accuracy estimates, c) performs statistical pooling of sensitivities, specificities, likelihood ratios and diagnostic odds ratios using fixed and random effects models, both overall and in subgroups and d) produces high quality figures, including forest plots and summary receiver operating characteristic curves that can be exported for use in manuscripts for publication. All computational algorithms have been validated through comparison with different statistical tools and published meta-analyses. Meta-DiSc has a Graphical User Interface with roll-down menus, dialog boxes, and online help facilities. Meta-DiSc is a comprehensive and dedicated test accuracy meta-analysis software. It has already been used and cited in several meta-analyses published in high-ranking journals. The software is publicly available at http://www.hrc.es/investigacion/metadisc_en.htm.

Atrial fibrillation and delayed gastric emptying.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isadora C Botwinick

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation and delayed gastric emptying (DGE are common after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Our aim was to investigate a potential relationship between atrial fibrillation and DGE, which we defined as failure to tolerate a regular diet by the 7(th postoperative day. METHODS: We performed a retrospective chart review of 249 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy at our institution between 2000 and 2009. Data was analyzed with Fisher exact test for categorical variables and Mann-Whitney U or unpaired T-test for continuous variables. RESULTS: Approximately 5% of the 249 patients included in the analysis experienced at least one episode of postoperative atrial fibrillation. Median age of patients with atrial fibrillation was 74 years, compared with 66 years in patients without atrial fibrillation (p = 0.0005. Patients with atrial fibrillation were more likely to have a history of atrial fibrillation (p = 0.03. 92% of the patients with atrial fibrillation suffered from DGE, compared to 46% of patients without atrial fibrillation (p = 0.0007. This association held true when controlling for age. CONCLUSION: Patients with postoperative atrial fibrillation are more likely to experience delayed gastric emptying. Interventions to manage delayed gastric function might be prudent in patients at high risk for postoperative atrial fibrillation.

The economics of atrial fibrillation: a time for review and prioritization.

Science.gov (United States)

Cadilhac, Dominique A

2012-08-01

Stroke associated with atrial fibrillation may occur in up to one third of people who experience an ischemic event, and results in greater stroke severity and poorer health outcomes. The ageing population in developed and developing countries will lead to an increase in the prevalence of atrial fibrillation in society. Detecting people who have atrial fibrillation and ensuring optimal prevention management is essential for reducing the burden of stroke worldwide. There is evidence that use of anticoagulants is inadequate in primary and secondary prevention of stroke. New anticoagulants that have fewer side effects and population screening tools are available. However, there is little information available about the cost-effectiveness of these new options for atrial fibrillation detection and stroke prevention management over current practice. Since resources for spending in health are limited, it is essential that formal economic analyses are undertaken to ensure there are informed and evidence-based decisions on where to best invest stroke prevention resources. It is essential that renewed efforts in the area of atrial fibrillation and options for stroke prevention are undertaken within the public health research community. © 2012 The Author. International Journal of Stroke © 2012 World Stroke Organization.

[Inguinal hernia repair: results of randomized clinical trials and meta-analyses].

Science.gov (United States)

Slim, K; Vons, C

2008-01-01

This evidence-based review of the literature aims to answer two questions regarding inguinal hernia repair: 1. should a prosthetic patch be used routinely? 2. Which approach is better - laparoscopic or open surgery? After a comprehensive search of electronic databases we retained only meta-analyses (n=14) and/or randomised clinical trials (n=4). Review of this literature suggests with a good level of evidence that prosthetic hernia repair is the gold standard; the laparoscopic approach has very few proven benefits and may involve more serious complications when performed outside expert centers. The role of laparoscopy for the repair of bilateral or recurrent hernias needs better evaluation.

Primary molar pulpotomy: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Po-Yen; Chen, Hsueh-Szu; Wang, Yu-Hsiang; Tu, Yu-Kang

2014-09-01

Pulpotomy is a common procedure to treat asymptomatic reversible pulpitis in primary molars. The aim of this study is to undertake a systematic review and a network meta-analysis to compare the clinical and radiographic outcomes of different pulpotomy procedures in primary molars. Three authors performed data extraction independently and in duplicate using data collection forms. Disagreements were resolved by discussion. An electronic literature search was performed within MEDLINE (via PubMed), ScienceDirect, Web of Science, Cochrane, and ClinicalKey databases until December 2012. Medications for pulpotomy including formocresol, ferric sulfate, calcium hydroxide, and mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA), and laser pulpotomy are compared using Bayesian network meta-analyses. The outcome is the odds ratio for clinical and radiographic failure including premature tooth loss at 12 and 24 months after treatments amongst different treatment procedures. 37 studies were included in the systematic review, and 22 of them in the final network meta-analyses. After 18-24 months, in terms of treatment failure, the odds ratio for calcium hydroxide vs. formocresol was 1.94 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.11, 3.25]; 3.38 (95% CI: 1.37, 8.61) for lasers vs. formocresol; 2.16 (95% CI: 1.12, 4.31) for calcium hydroxide vs. ferric sulfate; 3.73 (95% CI: 1.27, 11.67) for lasers vs. ferric sulfate; 0.47 (95% CI: 0.26, 0.83) for MTA vs. calcium hydroxide; 3.76 (95% CI: 1.39, 10.08) for lasers vs. After 18-24 months, formocresol, ferric sulfate, and MTA showed significantly better clinical and radiographic outcomes than calcium hydroxide and laser therapies in primary molar pulpotomies. The network meta-analyses showed that MTA is the first choice for primary molar pulpotomies. However, if treatment cost is an issue, especially when the treated primary molars are going to be replaced by permanent teeth, ferric sulfate may be the choice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surgery for atrial fibrillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Viganò, M; Graffigna, A; Ressia, L; Minzioni, G; Pagani, F; Aiello, M; Gazzoli, F

1996-01-01

The mechanisms of atrial fibrillation arc multiple reentry circuits spinning around the atrial surface, and these baffle any attempt to direct surgical interruption. The purpose of this article is to report the surgical experience in the treatment of isolated and concomitant atrial fibrillation at the Cardiac Surgical Institute of the University of Pavia. In cases of atrial fibrillation secondary to mitral/valve disease, surgical isolation of the left atrium at the time of mitral valve surgery can prevent atrial fibrillation from involving the right atrium, which can exert its diastolic pump function on the right ventricle. Left atrial isolation was performed on 205 patients at the time of mitral valve surgery. Atrial partitioning ("maze operation") creates straight and blind atrial alleys so that non-recentry circuits can take place. Five patients underwent this procedure. In eight-cases of atrial fibrillation secondary to atrial septal defect, the adult patients with atrial septal defect and chronic or paroxysmal atrial fibrillation underwent surgical isolation of the right atrium associated which surgical correction of the defect, in order to let sinus rhythm govern the left atrium and the ventricles. "Lone" atrial fibrillation occurs in hearts with no detectable organic disease. Bi-atrial isolation with creation of an atrial septal internodal "corridor" was performed on 14 patients. In cases of atrial fibrillation secondary to mitral valve disease, left atrial isolation was performed on 205 patients at the time of mitral valve surgery with an overall sinus rhythm recovery of 44%. In the same period, sinus rhythm was recovered and persisted in only 19% of 252 patients who underwent mitral valve replacement along (P < 0.001). Sinus rhythm was less likely to recover in patients with right atriomegaly requiring tricuspid valve annuloplasty: 59% vs 84% (P < 0.001). Restoration of the right atrial function raised the cardiac index from 2.25 +/- 0.55 1/min per m2

Atrial fibrillation - discharge

Science.gov (United States)

... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000237.htm Atrial fibrillation - discharge To use the sharing features on this ... have been in the hospital because you have atrial fibrillation . This condition occurs when your heart beats faster ...

Unemployment Impairs Mental Health: Meta-Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Karsten I.; Moser, Klaus

2009-01-01

The effect of unemployment on mental health was examined with meta-analytic methods across 237 cross-sectional and 87 longitudinal studies. The average overall effect size was d = 0.51 with unemployed persons showing more distress than employed persons. A significant difference was found for several indicator variables of mental health (mixed…

The PRISMA extension statement for reporting of systematic reviews incorporating network meta-analyses of health care interventions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hutton, Brian; Salanti, Georgia; Caldwell, Deborah M

2015-01-01

The PRISMA statement is a reporting guideline designed to improve the completeness of reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Authors have used this guideline worldwide to prepare their reviews for publication. In the past, these reports typically compared 2 treatment alternatives. Wit...

Carvedilol for prevention of atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui-Shan Wang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF remains the most common complication after cardiac surgery. Current guidelines recommend β-blockers to prevent POAF. Carvedilol is a non-selective β-adrenergic blocker with anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and multiple cationic channel blocking properties. These unique properties of carvedilol have generated interest in its use as a prophylaxis for POAF. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the efficacy of carvedilol in preventing POAF. METHODS: PubMed from the inception to September 2013 was searched for studies assessing the effect of carvedilol on POAF occurrence. Pooled relative risk (RR with 95% confidence interval (CI was calculated using random- or fixed-effect models when appropriate. Six comparative trials (three randomized controlled trials and three nonrandomized controlled trials including 765 participants met the inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Carvedilol was associated with a significant reduction in POAF (relative risk [RR] 0.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37 to 0.64, p<0.001. Subgroup analyses yielded similar results. In a subgroup analysis, carvedilol appeared to be superior to metoprolol for the prevention of POAF (RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.70, p<0.001. No evidence of heterogeneity was observed. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, carvedilol may effectively reduce the incidence of POAF in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. It appeared to be superior to metoprolol. A large-scale, well-designed randomized controlled trial is needed to conclusively answer the question regarding the utility of carvedilol in the prevention of POAF.

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected

Dietary supplement use and colorectal cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heine-Bröring, R.C.; Winkels, R.M.; Renkema, J.M.S.; Kragt, L.; Orten-Luiten, van A.C.B.; Tigchelaar, E.F.; Chan, D.S.M.; Norat, T.; Kampman, E.

2015-01-01

Use of dietary supplements is rising in countries where colorectal cancer is prevalent. We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies on dietary supplement use and colorectal cancer risk. We identified relevant studies in Medline, Embase and Cochrane up

Nanomechanical properties of single amyloid fibrils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sweers, K K M; Bennink, M L; Subramaniam, V

2012-01-01

Amyloid fibrils are traditionally associated with neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease or Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. However, the ability to form amyloid fibrils appears to be a more generic property of proteins. While disease-related, or pathological, amyloid fibrils are relevant for understanding the pathology and course of the disease, functional amyloids are involved, for example, in the exceptionally strong adhesive properties of natural adhesives. Amyloid fibrils are thus becoming increasingly interesting as versatile nanobiomaterials for applications in biotechnology. In the last decade a number of studies have reported on the intriguing mechanical characteristics of amyloid fibrils. In most of these studies atomic force microscopy (AFM) and atomic force spectroscopy play a central role. AFM techniques make it possible to probe, at nanometer length scales, and with exquisite control over the applied forces, biological samples in different environmental conditions. In this review we describe the different AFM techniques used for probing mechanical properties of single amyloid fibrils on the nanoscale. An overview is given of the existing mechanical studies on amyloid. We discuss the difficulties encountered with respect to the small fibril sizes and polymorphic behavior of amyloid fibrils. In particular, the different conformational packing of monomers within the fibrils leads to a heterogeneity in mechanical properties. We conclude with a brief outlook on how our knowledge of these mechanical properties of the amyloid fibrils can be exploited in the construction of nanomaterials from amyloid fibrils. (topical review)

Curcumin Protects β-Lactoglobulin Fibril Formation and Fibril-Induced Neurotoxicity in PC12 Cells.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mansooreh Mazaheri

Full Text Available In this study the β-lactoglobulin fibrillation, in the presence or absence of lead ions, aflatoxin M1 and curcumin, was evaluated using ThT fluorescence, Circular dichroism spectroscopy and atomic force microscopy. To investigate the toxicity of the different form of β-Lg fibrils, in the presence or absence of above toxins and curcumin, we monitored changes in the level of reactive oxygen species and morphology of the differentiated neuron-like PC12 cells. The cell viability, cell body area, average neurite length, neurite width, number of primary neurites, percent of bipolar cells and node/primary neurite ratios were used to assess the growth and complexity of PC12 cells exposed to different form of β-Lg fibrils. Incubation of β-Lg with curcumin resulted in a significant decrease in ROS levels even in the presence of lead ions and aflatoxin M1. The β-Lg fibrils formed in the presence of lead ions and aflatoxin M1 attenuated the growth and complexity of PC12 cells compared with other form of β-Lg fibrils. However, the adverse effects of these toxins and protein fibrils were negated in the presence of curcumin. Furthermore, the antioxidant and inhibitory effects of curcumin protected PC12 cells against fibril neurotoxicity and enhanced their survival. Thus, curcumin may provide a protective effect toward β-Lg, and perhaps other protein, fibrils mediated neurotoxicity.

metaBIT, an integrative and automated metagenomic pipeline for analysing microbial profiles from high-throughput sequencing shotgun data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Louvel, Guillaume; Der Sarkissian, Clio; Hanghøj, Kristian Ebbesen

2016-01-01

-throughput DNA sequencing (HTS). Here, we develop metaBIT, an open-source computational pipeline automatizing routine microbial profiling of shotgun HTS data. Customizable by the user at different stringency levels, it performs robust taxonomy-based assignment and relative abundance calculation of microbial taxa......, as well as cross-sample statistical analyses of microbial diversity distributions. We demonstrate the versatility of metaBIT within a range of published HTS data sets sampled from the environment (soil and seawater) and the human body (skin and gut), but also from archaeological specimens. We present......-friendly profiling of the microbial DNA present in HTS shotgun data sets. The applications of metaBIT are vast, from monitoring of laboratory errors and contaminations, to the reconstruction of past and present microbiota, and the detection of candidate species, including pathogens....

Management of hepatocellular carcinoma: an overview of major findings from meta-analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiaozhong; Han, Guohong

2016-01-01

This paper aims to systematically review the major findings from meta-analyses comparing different treatment options for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A total of 153 relevant papers were searched via the PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library databases. They were classified according to the mainstay treatment modalities (i.e., liver transplantation, surgical resection, radiofrequency ablation, transarterial embolization or chemoembolization, sorafenib, and others). The primary outcome data, such as overall survival, diseases-free survival or recurrence-free survival, progression-free survival, and safety, were summarized. The recommendations and uncertainties regarding the treatment of HCC were also proposed. PMID:27167195

Right-handers have negligibly higher IQ scores than left-handers: Systematic review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Ntolka, Eleni; Papadatou-Pastou, Marietta

2018-01-01

The relationship between intelligence and handedness remains a matter of debate. The present study is a systematic review of 36 studies (totaling 66,108 individuals), which have measured full IQ scores in different handedness groups. Eighteen of those studies were further included in three sets of meta-analyses (totaling 20,442 individuals), which investigated differences in standardized mean IQ scores in (i) left-handers, (ii) non-right-handers, and (iii) mixed-handers compared to right-handers. The bulk of the studies included in the systematic review reported no differences in IQ scores between left- and right-handers. In the meta-analyses, statistically significant differences in mean IQ scores were detected between right-handers and left-handers, but were marginal in magnitude (d=-0.07); the data sets were found to be homogeneous. Significance was lost when the largest study was excluded. No differences in mean IQ scores were found between right-handers and non-right-handers as well as between right-handers and mixed-handers. No sex differences were found. Overall, the intelligence differences between handedness groups in the general population are negligible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Therapies for bruxism: a systematic review and network meta-analysis (protocol).

Science.gov (United States)

Mesko, Mauro Elias; Hutton, Brian; Skupien, Jovito Adiel; Sarkis-Onofre, Rafael; Moher, David; Pereira-Cenci, Tatiana

2017-01-13

Bruxism is a sleep disorder characterized by grinding and clenching of the teeth that may be related to irreversible tooth injuries. It is a prevalent condition occurring in up to 31% of adults. However, there is no definitive answer as to which of the many currently available treatments (including drug therapy, intramuscular injections, physiotherapy, biofeedback, kinesiotherapy, use of intraoral devices, or psychological therapy) is the best for the clinical management of the different manifestations of bruxism. The aim of this systematic review and network meta-analysis is to answer the following question: what is the best treatment for adult bruxists? Comprehensive searches of the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (via PubMed), Scopus, and LILACS will be completed using the following keywords: bruxism and therapies and related entry terms. Studies will be included, according to the eligibility criteria (Controlled Clinical Trials and Randomized Clinical Trials, considering specific outcome measures for bruxism). The reference lists of included studies will be hand searched. Relevant data will be extracted from included studies using a specially designed data extraction sheet. Risk of bias of the included studies will be assessed, and the overall strength of the evidence will be summarized (i.e., GRADE). A random effects model will be used for all pairwise meta-analyses (with a 95% confidence interval). A Bayesian network meta-analysis will explore the relative benefits between the various treatments. The review will be reported using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews incorporating Network Meta-Analyses (PRISMA-NMA) statement. This systematic review aims at identifying and evaluating therapies to treat bruxism. This systematic review may lead to several recommendations, for both patients and researchers, as which is the best therapy for a specific patient case and how future studies need to be designed, considering what is available now and what is

How to Make Nothing Out of Something: Analyses of the Impact of Study Sampling and Statistical Interpretation in Misleading Meta-Analytic Conclusions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Robert Cunningham

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The limited resource model states that self-control is governed by a relatively finite set of inner resources on which people draw when exerting willpower. Once self-control resources have been used up or depleted, they are less available for other self-control tasks, leading to a decrement in subsequent self-control success. The depletion effect has been studied for over 20 years, tested or extended in more than 600 studies, and supported in an independent meta-analysis (Hagger, Wood, Stiff, and Chatzisarantis, 2010. Meta-analyses are supposed to reduce bias in literature reviews. Carter, Kofler, Forster, and McCullough’s (2015 meta-analysis, by contrast, included a series of questionable decisions involving sampling, methods, and data analysis. We provide quantitative analyses of key sampling issues: exclusion of many of the best depletion studies based on idiosyncratic criteria and the emphasis on mini meta-analyses with low statistical power as opposed to the overall depletion effect. We discuss two key methodological issues: failure to code for research quality, and the quantitative impact of weak studies by novice researchers. We discuss two key data analysis issues: questionable interpretation of the results of trim and fill and funnel plot asymmetry test procedures, and the use and misinterpretation of the untested Precision Effect Test [PET] and Precision Effect Estimate with Standard Error (PEESE procedures. Despite these serious problems, the Carter et al. meta-analysis results actually indicate that there is a real depletion effect – contrary to their title.

The Neural Bases of Difficult Speech Comprehension and Speech Production: Two Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE) Meta-Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Adank, Patti

2012-01-01

The role of speech production mechanisms in difficult speech comprehension is the subject of on-going debate in speech science. Two Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE) analyses were conducted on neuroimaging studies investigating difficult speech comprehension or speech production. Meta-analysis 1 included 10 studies contrasting comprehension…

78 FR 63479 - Meta-Analyses of Randomized Controlled Clinical Trials (RCTs) for the Evaluation of Risk To...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-24

... pharmaceutical industry and health care organizations, and others from the general public, about the use of meta-analyses of randomized trials as a tool for safety assessment in the regulation of pharmaceutical products... PDUFA Goals Letter, titled ``Enhancing Regulatory Science and Expediting Drug Development,'' includes an...

Formalizing the definition of meta-analysis in Molecular Ecology.

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ArchMiller, Althea A; Bauer, Eric F; Koch, Rebecca E; Wijayawardena, Bhagya K; Anil, Ammu; Kottwitz, Jack J; Munsterman, Amelia S; Wilson, Alan E

2015-08-01

Meta-analysis, the statistical synthesis of pertinent literature to develop evidence-based conclusions, is relatively new to the field of molecular ecology, with the first meta-analysis published in the journal Molecular Ecology in 2003 (Slate & Phua 2003). The goal of this article is to formalize the definition of meta-analysis for the authors, editors, reviewers and readers of Molecular Ecology by completing a review of the meta-analyses previously published in this journal. We also provide a brief overview of the many components required for meta-analysis with a more specific discussion of the issues related to the field of molecular ecology, including the use and statistical considerations of Wright's FST and its related analogues as effect sizes in meta-analysis. We performed a literature review to identify articles published as 'meta-analyses' in Molecular Ecology, which were then evaluated by at least two reviewers. We specifically targeted Molecular Ecology publications because as a flagship journal in this field, meta-analyses published in Molecular Ecology have the potential to set the standard for meta-analyses in other journals. We found that while many of these reviewed articles were strong meta-analyses, others failed to follow standard meta-analytical techniques. One of these unsatisfactory meta-analyses was in fact a secondary analysis. Other studies attempted meta-analyses but lacked the fundamental statistics that are considered necessary for an effective and powerful meta-analysis. By drawing attention to the inconsistency of studies labelled as meta-analyses, we emphasize the importance of understanding the components of traditional meta-analyses to fully embrace the strengths of quantitative data synthesis in the field of molecular ecology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ain't Necessarily So : Review and Critique of Recent Meta-Analyses of Behavioral Medicine Interventions in Health Psychology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Coyne, James C.; Thombs, Brett D.; Hagedoorn, Mariet

Objective: We examined four meta-analyses of behavioral interventions for adults (Dixon, Keefe, Scipio, Perri, & Abernethy, 2007; Hoffman, Papas, Chatkoff, & Kerns, 2007; Irwin, Cole, & Nicassio, 2006; and Jacobsen, Donovan, Vadaparampil, & Small, 2007) that have appeared in the Evidence Based

Root coverage procedures improve patient aesthetics. A systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cairo, Francesco; Pagliaro, Umberto; Buti, Jacopo; Baccini, Michela; Graziani, Filippo; Tonelli, Paolo; Pagavino, Gabriella; Tonetti, Maurizio S

2016-11-01

The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review (SR) of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to explore if periodontal plastic surgery procedures for the treatment of single and multiple gingival recessions (Rec) may improve aesthetics at patient and professional levels. In order to combine evidence from direct and indirect comparisons by different trials a Bayesian network meta-analysis (BNM) was planned. A literature search on PubMed, Cochrane libraries, EMBASE, and hand-searched journals until January 2016 was conducted to identify RCTs presenting aesthetic outcomes after root coverage using standardized evaluations at patient and professional level. A total of 16 RCTs were selected in the SR; three RTCs presenting professional aesthetic evaluation with Root coverage Aesthetic Score (RES) and three showing final self-perception using the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS Est) could be included in a BNM model. Coronally Advanced Flap plus Connective Tissue Graft (CAF + CTG) and CAF + Acellular Dermal Matrix (ADM) and Autologous Fibroblasts (AF) were associated with the best RES outcomes (best probability = 24% and 64%, respectively), while CAF + CTG and CAF + CTG + Enamel matrix Derivatives (EMD) obtained highest values of VAS Est score (best probability = 44% and 26%, respectively). Periodontal Plastic Surgery (PPS) techniques applying grafts underneath CAF with or without the adding of EMD are associated with improved aesthetics assessed by final patient perception and RES as professional evaluation system. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Exercise in the Treatment of Overweight and Obese Children and Adolescents: A Systematic Review of Meta-Analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George A. Kelley

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. Conduct a systematic review of previous meta-analyses addressing the effects of exercise in the treatment of overweight and obese children and adolescents. Methods. Previous meta-analyses of randomized controlled exercise trials that assessed adiposity in overweight and obese children and adolescents were included by searching nine electronic databases and cross-referencing from retrieved studies. Methodological quality was assessed using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR Instrument. The alpha level for statistical significance was set at P≤0.05. Results. Of the 308 studies reviewed, two aggregate data meta-analyses representing 14 and 17 studies and 481 and 701 boys and girls met all eligibility criteria. Methodological quality was 64% and 73%. For both studies, statistically significant reductions in percent body fat were observed (P=0.006 and P<0.00001. The number-needed-to treat (NNT was 4 and 3 with an estimated 24.5 and 31.5 million overweight and obese children in the world potentially benefitting, 2.8 and 3.6 million in the US. No other measures of adiposity (BMI-related measures, body weight, and central obesity were statistically significant. Conclusions. Exercise is efficacious for reducing percent body fat in overweight and obese children and adolescents. Insufficient evidence exists to suggest that exercise reduces other measures of adiposity.

Revisiting pulmonary vein isolation alone for persistent atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

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Voskoboinik, Aleksandr; Moskovitch, Jeremy T; Harel, Nadav; Sanders, Prashanthan; Kistler, Peter M; Kalman, Jonathan M

2017-05-01

Early studies demonstrated relatively low success rates for pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) alone in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (PeAF). However, the advent of new technologies and the observation that additional substrate ablation does not improve outcomes have created a new focus on PVI alone for treatment of PeAF. The purpose of this study was to systematically review the recent medical literature to determine current medium-term outcomes when a PVI-only approach is used for PeAF. An electronic database search (MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, PubMed, Cochrane) was performed in August 2016. Only studies of PeAF patients undergoing a "PVI only" ablation strategy using contemporary radiofrequency (RF) technology or second-generation cryoballoon (CB2) were included. A random-effects model was used to assess the primary outcome of pooled single-procedure 12-month arrhythmia-free survival. Predictors of recurrence were also examined and a meta-analysis performed if ≥4 studies examined the parameter. Fourteen studies of 956 patients, of whom 45.2% underwent PVI only with RF and 54.8% with CB2, were included. Pooled single-procedure 12-month arrhythmia-free survival was 66.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 60.8%-72.2%), with the majority of patients (80.5%) off antiarrhythmic drugs. Complication rates were very low, with cardiac tamponade occurring in 5 patients (0.6%) and persistent phrenic nerve palsy in 5 CB2 patients (0.9% of CB2). Blanking period recurrence (hazard ratio 4.68, 95% CI 1.70-12.9) was the only significant predictor of recurrence. A PVI-only strategy in PeAF patients with a low prevalence of structural heart disease using contemporary technology yields excellent outcomes comparable to those for paroxysmal AF ablation. Copyright © 2017 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptability and phenotypic stability of common bean genotypes through Bayesian inference.

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Corrêa, A M; Teodoro, P E; Gonçalves, M C; Barroso, L M A; Nascimento, M; Santos, A; Torres, F E

2016-04-27

This study used Bayesian inference to investigate the genotype x environment interaction in common bean grown in Mato Grosso do Sul State, and it also evaluated the efficiency of using informative and minimally informative a priori distributions. Six trials were conducted in randomized blocks, and the grain yield of 13 common bean genotypes was assessed. To represent the minimally informative a priori distributions, a probability distribution with high variance was used, and a meta-analysis concept was adopted to represent the informative a priori distributions. Bayes factors were used to conduct comparisons between the a priori distributions. The Bayesian inference was effective for the selection of upright common bean genotypes with high adaptability and phenotypic stability using the Eberhart and Russell method. Bayes factors indicated that the use of informative a priori distributions provided more accurate results than minimally informative a priori distributions. According to Bayesian inference, the EMGOPA-201, BAMBUÍ, CNF 4999, CNF 4129 A 54, and CNFv 8025 genotypes had specific adaptability to favorable environments, while the IAPAR 14 and IAC CARIOCA ETE genotypes had specific adaptability to unfavorable environments.

Research Pearls: The Significance of Statistics and Perils of Pooling. Part 3: Pearls and Pitfalls of Meta-analyses and Systematic Reviews.

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Harris, Joshua D; Brand, Jefferson C; Cote, Mark P; Dhawan, Aman

2017-08-01

Within the health care environment, there has been a recent and appropriate trend towards emphasizing the value of care provision. Reduced cost and higher quality improve the value of care. Quality is a challenging, heterogeneous, variably defined concept. At the core of quality is the patient's outcome, quantified by a vast assortment of subjective and objective outcome measures. There has been a recent evolution towards evidence-based medicine in health care, clearly elucidating the role of high-quality evidence across groups of patients and studies. Synthetic studies, such as systematic reviews and meta-analyses, are at the top of the evidence-based medicine hierarchy. Thus, these investigations may be the best potential source of guiding diagnostic, therapeutic, prognostic, and economic medical decision making. Systematic reviews critically appraise and synthesize the best available evidence to provide a conclusion statement (a "take-home point") in response to a specific answerable clinical question. A meta-analysis uses statistical methods to quantitatively combine data from single studies. Meta-analyses should be performed with high methodological quality homogenous studies (Level I or II) or evidence randomized studies, to minimize confounding variable bias. When it is known that the literature is inadequate or a recent systematic review has already been performed with a demonstration of insufficient data, then a new systematic review does not add anything meaningful to the literature. PROSPERO registration and PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines assist authors in the design and conduct of systematic reviews and should always be used. Complete transparency of the conduct of the review permits reproducibility and improves fidelity of the conclusions. Pooling of data from overly dissimilar investigations should be avoided. This particularly applies to Level IV evidence, that is, noncomparative investigations

Meta-analyses of workplace physical activity and dietary behaviour interventions on weight outcomes.

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Verweij, L M; Coffeng, J; van Mechelen, W; Proper, K I

2011-06-01

This meta-analytic review critically examines the effectiveness of workplace interventions targeting physical activity, dietary behaviour or both on weight outcomes. Data could be extracted from 22 studies published between 1980 and November 2009 for meta-analyses. The GRADE approach was used to determine the level of evidence for each pooled outcome measure. Results show moderate quality of evidence that workplace physical activity and dietary behaviour interventions significantly reduce body weight (nine studies; mean difference [MD]-1.19 kg [95% CI -1.64 to -0.74]), body mass index (BMI) (11 studies; MD -0.34 kg m⁻² [95% CI -0.46 to -0.22]) and body fat percentage calculated from sum of skin-folds (three studies; MD -1.12% [95% CI -1.86 to -0.38]). There is low quality of evidence that workplace physical activity interventions significantly reduce body weight and BMI. Effects on percentage body fat calculated from bioelectrical impedance or hydrostatic weighing, waist circumference, sum of skin-folds and waist-hip ratio could not be investigated properly because of a lack of studies. Subgroup analyses showed a greater reduction in body weight of physical activity and diet interventions containing an environmental component. As the clinical relevance of the pooled effects may be substantial on a population level, we recommend workplace physical activity and dietary behaviour interventions, including an environment component, in order to prevent weight gain. © 2010 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2010 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

A systematic review of the quality of conduct and reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses in paediatric surgery.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Stephen Cullis

Full Text Available Our objective was to evaluate quality of conduct and reporting of published systematic reviews and meta-analyses in paediatric surgery. We also aimed to identify characteristics predictive of review quality.Systematic reviews summarise evidence by combining sources, but are potentially prone to bias. To counter this, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA was published to aid in reporting. Similarly, the Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR measurement tool was designed to appraise methodology. The paediatric surgical literature has seen an increasing number of reviews over the past decade, but quality has not been evaluated.Adhering to PRISMA guidelines, we performed a systematic review with a priori design to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of interventions in paediatric surgery. From 01/2010 to 06/2016, we searched: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, Web of Science, Google Scholar, reference lists and journals. Two reviewers independently selected studies and extracted data. We assessed conduct and reporting using AMSTAR and PRISMA. Scores were calculated as the sum of reported items. We also extracted author, journal and article characteristics, and used them in exploratory analysis to determine which variables predict quality.112 articles fulfilled eligibility criteria (53 systematic reviews; 59 meta-analyses. Overall, 68% AMSTAR and 56.8% PRISMA items were reported adequately. Poorest scores were identified with regards a priori design, inclusion of structured summaries, including the grey literature, citing excluded articles and evaluating bias. 13 reviews were pre-registered and 6 in PRISMA-endorsing journals. The following predicted quality in univariate analysis:, word count, Cochrane review, journal h-index, impact factor, journal endorses PRISMA, PRISMA adherence suggested in author guidance, article mentions PRISMA

The effects of 'ecstasy' (MDMA) on visuospatial memory performance: findings from a systematic review with meta-analyses.

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Murphy, Philip N; Bruno, Raimondo; Ryland, Ida; Wareing, Michele; Fisk, John E; Montgomery, Catharine; Hilton, Joanne

2012-03-01

To review, with meta-analyses where appropriate, performance differences between ecstasy (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine) users and non-users on a wider range of visuospatial tasks than previously reviewed. Such tasks have been shown to draw upon working memory executive resources. Abstract databases were searched using the United Kingdom National Health Service Evidence Health Information Resource. Inclusion criteria were publication in English language peer-reviewed journals and the reporting of new findings regarding human ecstasy-users' performance on visuospatial tasks. Data extracted included specific task requirements to provide a basis for meta-analyses for categories of tasks with similar requirements. Fifty-two studies were identified for review, although not all were suitable for meta-analysis. Significant weighted mean effect sizes indicating poorer performance by ecstasy users compared with matched controls were found for tasks requiring recall of spatial stimulus elements, recognition of figures and production/reproduction of figures. There was no evidence of a linear relationship between estimated ecstasy consumption and effect sizes. Given the networked nature of processing for spatial and non-spatial visual information, future scanning and imaging studies should focus on brain activation differences between ecstasy users and non-users in the context of specific tasks to facilitate identification of loci of potentially compromised activity in users. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Genome-wide meta-analyses of multiancestry cohorts identify multiple new susceptibility loci for refractive error and myopia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verhoeven, Virginie J. M.; Hysi, Pirro G.; Wojciechowski, Robert; Fan, Qiao; Guggenheim, Jeremy A.; Höhn, René; Macgregor, Stuart; Hewitt, Alex W.; Nag, Abhishek; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Yonova-Doing, Ekaterina; Zhou, Xin; Ikram, M. Kamran; Buitendijk, Gabriëlle H. S.; McMahon, George; Kemp, John P.; Pourcain, Beate St; Simpson, Claire L.; Mäkelä, Kari-Matti; Lehtimäki, Terho; Kähönen, Mika; Paterson, Andrew D.; Hosseini, S. Mohsen; Wong, Hoi Suen; Xu, Liang; Jonas, Jost B.; Pärssinen, Olavi; Wedenoja, Juho; Yip, Shea Ping; Ho, Daniel W. H.; Pang, Chi Pui; Chen, Li Jia; Burdon, Kathryn P.; Craig, Jamie E.; Klein, Barbara E. K.; Klein, Ronald; Haller, Toomas; Metspalu, Andres; Khor, Chiea-Chuen; Tai, E.-Shyong; Aung, Tin; Vithana, Eranga; Tay, Wan-Ting; Barathi, Veluchamy A.; Chen, Peng; Li, Ruoying; Liao, Jiemin; Zheng, Yingfeng; Bergen, Arthur A. B.; Chen, Wei

2013-01-01

Refractive error is the most common eye disorder worldwide and is a prominent cause of blindness. Myopia affects over 30% of Western populations and up to 80% of Asians. The CREAM consortium conducted genome-wide meta-analyses, including 37,382 individuals from 27 studies of European ancestry and

Limitations and risks of meta-analyses of longevity studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sebastiani, Paola; Bae, Harold; Gurinovich, Anastasia

2017-01-01

Searching for genetic determinants of human longevity has been challenged by the rarity of data sets with large numbers of individuals who have reached extreme old age, inconsistent definitions of the phenotype, and the difficulty of defining appropriate controls. Meta-analysis - a statistical...... method to summarize results from different studies - has become a common tool in genetic epidemiology to accrue large sample sizes for powerful genetic association studies. In conducting a meta-analysis of studies of human longevity however, particular attention must be made to the definition of cases...... and controls (including their health status) and on the effect of possible confounders such as sex and ethnicity upon the genetic effect to be estimated. We will show examples of how a meta-analysis can inflate the false negative rates of genetic association studies or it can bias estimates of the association...

The Influence of Judgment Calls on Meta-Analytic Findings.

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Tarrahi, Farid; Eisend, Martin

2016-01-01

Previous research has suggested that judgment calls (i.e., methodological choices made in the process of conducting a meta-analysis) have a strong influence on meta-analytic findings and question their robustness. However, prior research applies case study comparison or reanalysis of a few meta-analyses with a focus on a few selected judgment calls. These studies neglect the fact that different judgment calls are related to each other and simultaneously influence the outcomes of a meta-analysis, and that meta-analytic findings can vary due to non-judgment call differences between meta-analyses (e.g., variations of effects over time). The current study analyzes the influence of 13 judgment calls in 176 meta-analyses in marketing research by applying a multivariate, multilevel meta-meta-analysis. The analysis considers simultaneous influences from different judgment calls on meta-analytic effect sizes and controls for alternative explanations based on non-judgment call differences between meta-analyses. The findings suggest that judgment calls have only a minor influence on meta-analytic findings, whereas non-judgment call differences between meta-analyses are more likely to explain differences in meta-analytic findings. The findings support the robustness of meta-analytic results and conclusions.

Features of Computer-Based Decision Aids: Systematic Review, Thematic Synthesis, and Meta-Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Krömker, Dörthe; Meguerditchian, Ari N; Tamblyn, Robyn

2016-01-01

Background Patient information and education, such as decision aids, are gradually moving toward online, computer-based environments. Considerable research has been conducted to guide content and presentation of decision aids. However, given the relatively new shift to computer-based support, little attention has been given to how multimedia and interactivity can improve upon paper-based decision aids. Objective The first objective of this review was to summarize published literature into a proposed classification of features that have been integrated into computer-based decision aids. Building on this classification, the second objective was to assess whether integration of specific features was associated with higher-quality decision making. Methods Relevant studies were located by searching MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and CENTRAL databases. The review identified studies that evaluated computer-based decision aids for adults faced with preference-sensitive medical decisions and reported quality of decision-making outcomes. A thematic synthesis was conducted to develop the classification of features. Subsequently, meta-analyses were conducted based on standardized mean differences (SMD) from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that reported knowledge or decisional conflict. Further subgroup analyses compared pooled SMDs for decision aids that incorporated a specific feature to other computer-based decision aids that did not incorporate the feature, to assess whether specific features improved quality of decision making. Results Of 3541 unique publications, 58 studies met the target criteria and were included in the thematic synthesis. The synthesis identified six features: content control, tailoring, patient narratives, explicit values clarification, feedback, and social support. A subset of 26 RCTs from the thematic synthesis was used to conduct the meta-analyses. As expected, computer-based decision aids performed better than usual care or alternative aids; however

Features of Computer-Based Decision Aids: Systematic Review, Thematic Synthesis, and Meta-Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Syrowatka, Ania; Krömker, Dörthe; Meguerditchian, Ari N; Tamblyn, Robyn

2016-01-26

Patient information and education, such as decision aids, are gradually moving toward online, computer-based environments. Considerable research has been conducted to guide content and presentation of decision aids. However, given the relatively new shift to computer-based support, little attention has been given to how multimedia and interactivity can improve upon paper-based decision aids. The first objective of this review was to summarize published literature into a proposed classification of features that have been integrated into computer-based decision aids. Building on this classification, the second objective was to assess whether integration of specific features was associated with higher-quality decision making. Relevant studies were located by searching MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and CENTRAL databases. The review identified studies that evaluated computer-based decision aids for adults faced with preference-sensitive medical decisions and reported quality of decision-making outcomes. A thematic synthesis was conducted to develop the classification of features. Subsequently, meta-analyses were conducted based on standardized mean differences (SMD) from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that reported knowledge or decisional conflict. Further subgroup analyses compared pooled SMDs for decision aids that incorporated a specific feature to other computer-based decision aids that did not incorporate the feature, to assess whether specific features improved quality of decision making. Of 3541 unique publications, 58 studies met the target criteria and were included in the thematic synthesis. The synthesis identified six features: content control, tailoring, patient narratives, explicit values clarification, feedback, and social support. A subset of 26 RCTs from the thematic synthesis was used to conduct the meta-analyses. As expected, computer-based decision aids performed better than usual care or alternative aids; however, some features performed better than

The role of host genetic factors in respiratory tract infectious diseases: systematic review, meta-analyses and field synopsis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Patarčić, Inga; Gelemanović, Andrea; Kirin, Mirna; Kolčić, Ivana; Theodoratou, Evropi; Baillie, Kenneth J.; de Jong, Menno D.; Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Polašek, Ozren

2015-01-01

Host genetic factors have frequently been implicated in respiratory infectious diseases, often with inconsistent results in replication studies. We identified 386 studies from the total of 24,823 studies identified in a systematic search of four bibliographic databases. We performed meta-analyses of

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Villemereuil Pierre de

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small. Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for

Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward Cripps

2016-07-01

Full Text Available A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine if the patterns of within-person responses on a 12 trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999. ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability, which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiralling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of within-person processes at the individual level, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques.

Uniform spatial distribution of collagen fibril radii within tendon implies local activation of pC-collagen at individual fibrils

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Rutenberg, Andrew D.; Brown, Aidan I.; Kreplak, Laurent

2016-08-01

Collagen fibril cross-sectional radii show no systematic variation between the interior and the periphery of fibril bundles, indicating an effectively constant rate of collagen incorporation into fibrils throughout the bundle. Such spatially homogeneous incorporation constrains the extracellular diffusion of collagen precursors from sources at the bundle boundary to sinks at the growing fibrils. With a coarse-grained diffusion equation we determine stringent bounds, using parameters extracted from published experimental measurements of tendon development. From the lack of new fibril formation after birth, we further require that the concentration of diffusing precursors stays below the critical concentration for fibril nucleation. We find that the combination of the diffusive bound, which requires larger concentrations to ensure homogeneous fibril radii, and lack of nucleation, which requires lower concentrations, is only marginally consistent with fully processed collagen using conservative bounds. More realistic bounds may leave no consistent concentrations. Therefore, we propose that unprocessed pC-collagen diffuses from the bundle periphery followed by local C-proteinase activity and subsequent collagen incorporation at each fibril. We suggest that C-proteinase is localized within bundles, at fibril surfaces, during radial fibrillar growth. The much greater critical concentration of pC-collagen, as compared to fully processed collagen, then provides broad consistency between homogeneous fibril radii and the lack of fibril nucleation during fibril growth.

Sucrose modulates insulin amyloid-like fibril formation: effect on the aggregation mechanism and fibril morphology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marasini, Carlotta; Foderà, Vito; Vestergaard, Bente

2017-01-01

the protein self-assembly pathways. Using a combination of fluorescence spectroscopy, synchrotron radiation circular dichroism and transmission electron microscopy, we study the kinetics of formation and structural properties of human insulin fibrils in the presence of sucrose. The presence of sucrose results...... in a delay of the onset of fibrillation. Moreover, it leads to a dramatic change in both the morphology and overall amount of fibrils. Our results emphasize that the detailed composition of protein surroundings likely influences not only the fibrillation kinetics but also the balance between different...

Advances in meta-analysis: examples from internal medicine to neurology.

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Copetti, Massimiliano; Fontana, Andrea; Graziano, Giusi; Veneziani, Federica; Siena, Federica; Scardapane, Marco; Lucisano, Giuseppe; Pellegrini, Fabio

2014-01-01

We review the state of the art in meta-analysis and data pooling following the evolution of the statistical models employed. Starting from a classic definition of meta-analysis of published data, a set of apparent antinomies which characterized the development of the meta-analytic tools are reconciled in dichotomies where the second term represents a possible generalization of the first one. Particular attention is given to the generalized linear mixed models as an overall framework for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-analysis is discussed as a further possibility of generalization for sensitivity analysis and the use of priors as a data augmentation approach. We provide relevant examples to underline how the need for adequate methods to solve practical issues in specific areas of research have guided the development of advanced methods in meta-analysis. We show how all the advances in meta-analysis naturally merge into the unified framework of generalized linear mixed models and reconcile apparently conflicting approaches. All these complex models can be easily implemented with the standard commercial software available. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Atrial fibrillation or flutter

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... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/000184.htm Atrial fibrillation or flutter To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Atrial fibrillation or flutter is a common type of abnormal ...

Left atrial appendage occlusion for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanif, Hasib; Belley-Cote, Emilie P; Alotaibi, Abdullah; Dvirnik, Nazari; Neupane, Binod; Beyene, Joseph; Eikelboom, John W; Holmes, David; Whitlock, Richard P

2018-02-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the leading causes of stroke. Risks associated with oral anticoagulation (OAC) limit adherence to recommended therapy. Left atrial appendage (LAA) occlusion is a treatment alternative in patients with AF. We performed a network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomized trials evaluating the efficacy of LAA occlusion compared with oral anticoagulant, antiplatelet, and placebo for stroke prevention. We also assessed the impact of LAA occlusion on mortality, major bleeding, and operative time. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, and Cochrane Library for randomized trials comparing percutaneous or surgical LAA occlusion with standard of care in AF patients. Conventional meta-analysis found no difference between groups for stroke (5 trials, 1285 patients;RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.47-1.29), and a significant reduction in mortality (5 trials, 1285 patients; RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.51-0.99) favouring LAA occlusion. NMA demonstrated a trend towards reduction in stroke (OR 0.84, 95% CrI 0.47-1.55) and mortality (OR 0.69, 95% CrI 0.44-1.10) for LAA occlusion versus warfarin, but no statistically significant effect. Statistical ranking curves placed LAA occlusion as the most efficacious treatment on the outcomes of stroke and mortality when compared to warfarin, aspirin, or placebo. No significant differences between groups were seen in major bleeding or operative time for surgical trials. The overall quality of the evidence was low as assessed by GRADE. LAA occlusion appears to preserve the benefits of OAC therapy for stroke prevention in patients with AF, but the current evidence is of low quality.

A Bayesian Approach for Sensor Optimisation in Impact Identification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vincenzo Mallardo

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a Bayesian approach for optimizing the position of sensors aimed at impact identification in composite structures under operational conditions. The uncertainty in the sensor data has been represented by statistical distributions of the recorded signals. An optimisation strategy based on the genetic algorithm is proposed to find the best sensor combination aimed at locating impacts on composite structures. A Bayesian-based objective function is adopted in the optimisation procedure as an indicator of the performance of meta-models developed for different sensor combinations to locate various impact events. To represent a real structure under operational load and to increase the reliability of the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM system, the probability of malfunctioning sensors is included in the optimisation. The reliability and the robustness of the procedure is tested with experimental and numerical examples. Finally, the proposed optimisation algorithm is applied to a composite stiffened panel for both the uniform and non-uniform probability of impact occurrence.

[Atrial fibrillation].

Science.gov (United States)

Spinar, J; Vítovec, J

2003-09-01

Atrial fibrilation is the most frequent arrhythmia, the occurrence increasing with age and associated diseases. The incidence at the age below 60 years is markedly lower than one per cent, whereas in persons above 80 years of age it exceeds six per cent. The occurrence in patients with heart failure is from 10% (NYHA II) up to 50% (NYHA IV). Atrial fibrillation is classified into that observed for the first time and permanent, respectively, while transient forms include paroxyzmal and persistent atrial fibrillation. The diagnosis is based on ECG recording, while echocardiography is most significant. The therapy includes two basic questions--anticoagulant or anti-aggregation treatment and the control of rhythm or frequency. The anticoagulant therapy should be introduced in all patients, where contraindications are not present, being necessary before every cardioversion, provided atrial fibrillation lasts more than two days. In patients without any heart disease and with a physiological echocardiogram it is possible to administer only anti-aggregation treatment. Cardioversion (the control of rhythm) is recommended to all symptomatic patients, in other cases and especially in older persons the control of frequency is safer and of more advantage. Electrical cardioversion is more effective that a pharmacological treatment, the sinus rhythm is preferably controlled by dofetilid, ibutilid, propafenon and amiodaron. For the control of heart rate beta-blockers, diltiazem, verapamil and digitalis are recommended.

Living network meta-analysis compared with pairwise meta-analysis in comparative effectiveness research: empirical study

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Nikolakopoulou, Adriani; Mavridis, Dimitris; Furukawa, Toshi A; Cipriani, Andrea; Tricco, Andrea C; Straus, Sharon E; Siontis, George C M; Egger, Matthias

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine whether the continuous updating of networks of prospectively planned randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (“living” network meta-analysis) provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis in comparative effectiveness of medical interventions earlier than the updating of conventional, pairwise meta-analysis. Design Empirical study of the accumulating evidence about the comparative effectiveness of clinical interventions. Data sources Database of network meta-analyses of RCTs identified through searches of Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews until 14 April 2015. Eligibility criteria for study selection Network meta-analyses published after January 2012 that compared at least five treatments and included at least 20 RCTs. Clinical experts were asked to identify in each network the treatment comparison of greatest clinical interest. Comparisons were excluded for which direct and indirect evidence disagreed, based on side, or node, splitting test (Pmeta-analysis. The frequency and time to strong evidence was compared against the null hypothesis between pairwise and network meta-analyses. Results 49 comparisons of interest from 44 networks were included; most (n=39, 80%) were between active drugs, mainly from the specialties of cardiology, endocrinology, psychiatry, and rheumatology. 29 comparisons were informed by both direct and indirect evidence (59%), 13 by indirect evidence (27%), and 7 by direct evidence (14%). Both network and pairwise meta-analysis provided strong evidence against the null hypothesis for seven comparisons, but for an additional 10 comparisons only network meta-analysis provided strong evidence against the null hypothesis (P=0.002). The median time to strong evidence against the null hypothesis was 19 years with living network meta-analysis and 23 years with living pairwise meta-analysis (hazard ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 7.72, P=0.05). Studies directly comparing

Genetics Home Reference: familial atrial fibrillation

Science.gov (United States)

... Twitter Home Health Conditions Familial atrial fibrillation Familial atrial fibrillation Printable PDF Open All Close All Enable Javascript to view the expand/collapse boxes. Description Familial atrial fibrillation is an inherited abnormality of the heart's normal ...

Effectiveness of acupuncture for cancer pain: protocol for an umbrella review and meta-analyses of controlled trials

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He, Yihan; Liu, Yihong; May, Brian H; Zhang, Anthony Lin; Zhang, Haibo; Lu, ChuanJian; Yang, Lihong; Guo, Xinfeng; Xue, Charlie Changli

2017-01-01

Introduction The National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines for adult cancer pain indicate that acupuncture and related therapies may be valuable additions to pharmacological interventions for pain management. Of the systematic reviews related to this topic, some concluded that acupuncture was promising for alleviating cancer pain, while others argued that the evidence was insufficient to support its effectiveness. Methods and analysis This review will consist of three components: (1) synthesis of findings from existing systematic reviews; (2) updated meta-analyses of randomised clinical trials and (3) analyses of results of other types of clinical studies. We will search six English and four Chinese biomedical databases, dissertations and grey literature to identify systematic reviews and primary clinical studies. Two reviewers will screen results of the literature searches independently to identify included reviews and studies. Data from included articles will be abstracted for assessment, analysis and summary. Two assessors will appraise the quality of systematic reviews using Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews; assess the randomised controlled trials using the Cochrane Collaboration’s risk of bias tool and other types of studies according to the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We will use ‘summary of evidence’ tables to present evidence from existing systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Using the primary clinical studies, we will conduct meta-analysis for each outcome, by grouping studies based on the type of acupuncture, the comparator and the specific type of pain. Sensitivity analyses are planned according to clinical factors, acupuncture method, methodological characteristics and presence of statistical heterogeneity as applicable. For the non-randomised studies, we will tabulate the characteristics, outcome measures and the reported results of each study. Consistencies and inconsistencies in evidence will be investigated and discussed. Finally

Hypnotics and driving safety: meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials applying the on-the-road driving test.

Science.gov (United States)

Verster, Joris C; Veldhuijzen, Dieuwke S; Patat, Alain; Olivier, Berend; Volkerts, Edmund R

2006-01-01

Many people who use hypnotics are outpatients and are likely to drive a car the day after drug intake. The purpose of these meta-analyses was to determine whether or not this is safe. Placebo-controlled, randomized, double-blind trials were selected if using the on-the-road driving test to determine driving ability the day following one or two nights of treatment administration. Primary outcome measure of the driving test was the Standard Deviation of Lateral Position (SDLP); i.e., the weaving of the car. Fixed effects model meta-analyses were performed. Effect size (ES) was computed using mean standardized (weighted) difference scores between treatment and corresponding placebo SDLP values. Ten studies, published from 1984 to 2002 (207 subjects), were included in the meta-analyses. The morning following bedtime administration, i.e. 10-11 hours after dosing, significant driving impairment was found for the recommended dose of various benzodiazepine hypnotics (ES=0.42; 95% Confidence Interval (CI)=0.14 to 0.71). Twice the recommended dose impaired driving both in the morning (ES=0.68; CI=0.39 to 0.97) and afternoon, i.e. 16-17 hours after dosing (ES=0.57; CI=0.26 to 0.88). Zopiclone 7.5 mg also impaired driving in the morning (ES=0.89; CI=0.54 to 1.23). Zaleplon (10 and 20 mg) and zolpidem (10 mg) did not affect driving performance the morning after dosing. Following middle-of-the-night administration, significantly impaired driving performance was found for zopiclone 7.5 mg (ES=1.51, CI=0.85 to 2.17), zolpidem 10 mg (ES=0.66, CI=0.13 to 1.19) and zolpidem 20 mg (ES=1.16, CI=0.60 to 1.72). Zaleplon (10 and 20 mg) did not affect driving performance. The analyses show that driving a car the morning following nocturnal treatment with benzodiazepines and zopiclone is unsafe, whereas the recommended dose of zolpidem (10 mg) and zaleplon (10 mg) do not affect driving ability.

Brain areas associated with numbers and calculations in children: Meta-analyses of fMRI studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie Arsalidou

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Children use numbers every day and typically receive formal mathematical training from an early age, as it is a main subject in school curricula. Despite an increase in children neuroimaging studies, a comprehensive neuropsychological model of mathematical functions in children is lacking. Using quantitative meta-analyses of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI studies, we identify concordant brain areas across articles that adhere to a set of selection criteria (e.g., whole-brain analysis, coordinate reports and report brain activity to tasks that involve processing symbolic and non-symbolic numbers with and without formal mathematical operations, which we called respectively number tasks and calculation tasks. We present data on children 14 years and younger, who solved these tasks. Results show activity in parietal (e.g., inferior parietal lobule and precuneus and frontal (e.g., superior and medial frontal gyri cortices, core areas related to mental-arithmetic, as well as brain regions such as the insula and claustrum, which are not typically discussed as part of mathematical problem solving models. We propose a topographical atlas of mathematical processes in children, discuss findings within a developmental constructivist theoretical model, and suggest practical methodological considerations for future studies. Keywords: Mathematical cognition, Meta-analyses, fMRI, Children, Development, Insula

Bayesian estimation and use of high-throughput remote sensing indices for quantitative genetic analyses of leaf growth.

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Baker, Robert L; Leong, Wen Fung; An, Nan; Brock, Marcus T; Rubin, Matthew J; Welch, Stephen; Weinig, Cynthia

2018-02-01

We develop Bayesian function-valued trait models that mathematically isolate genetic mechanisms underlying leaf growth trajectories by factoring out genotype-specific differences in photosynthesis. Remote sensing data can be used instead of leaf-level physiological measurements. Characterizing the genetic basis of traits that vary during ontogeny and affect plant performance is a major goal in evolutionary biology and agronomy. Describing genetic programs that specifically regulate morphological traits can be complicated by genotypic differences in physiological traits. We describe the growth trajectories of leaves using novel Bayesian function-valued trait (FVT) modeling approaches in Brassica rapa recombinant inbred lines raised in heterogeneous field settings. While frequentist approaches estimate parameter values by treating each experimental replicate discretely, Bayesian models can utilize information in the global dataset, potentially leading to more robust trait estimation. We illustrate this principle by estimating growth asymptotes in the face of missing data and comparing heritabilities of growth trajectory parameters estimated by Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Using pseudo-Bayes factors, we compare the performance of an initial Bayesian logistic growth model and a model that incorporates carbon assimilation (A max ) as a cofactor, thus statistically accounting for genotypic differences in carbon resources. We further evaluate two remotely sensed spectroradiometric indices, photochemical reflectance (pri2) and MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (mtci) as covariates in lieu of A max , because these two indices were genetically correlated with A max across years and treatments yet allow much higher throughput compared to direct leaf-level gas-exchange measurements. For leaf lengths in uncrowded settings, including A max improves model fit over the initial model. The mtci and pri2 indices also outperform direct A max measurements. Of particular

Network meta-analysis: a technique to gather evidence from direct and indirect comparisons

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Systematic reviews and pairwise meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials, at the intersection of clinical medicine, epidemiology and statistics, are positioned at the top of evidence-based practice hierarchy. These are important tools to base drugs approval, clinical protocols and guidelines formulation and for decision-making. However, this traditional technique only partially yield information that clinicians, patients and policy-makers need to make informed decisions, since it usually compares only two interventions at the time. In the market, regardless the clinical condition under evaluation, usually many interventions are available and few of them have been studied in head-to-head studies. This scenario precludes conclusions to be drawn from comparisons of all interventions profile (e.g. efficacy and safety). The recent development and introduction of a new technique – usually referred as network meta-analysis, indirect meta-analysis, multiple or mixed treatment comparisons – has allowed the estimation of metrics for all possible comparisons in the same model, simultaneously gathering direct and indirect evidence. Over the last years this statistical tool has matured as technique with models available for all types of raw data, producing different pooled effect measures, using both Frequentist and Bayesian frameworks, with different software packages. However, the conduction, report and interpretation of network meta-analysis still poses multiple challenges that should be carefully considered, especially because this technique inherits all assumptions from pairwise meta-analysis but with increased complexity. Thus, we aim to provide a basic explanation of network meta-analysis conduction, highlighting its risks and benefits for evidence-based practice, including information on statistical methods evolution, assumptions and steps for performing the analysis. PMID:28503228

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

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Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

2017-11-01

Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atrial Fibrillation - Multiple Languages

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... Are Here: Home → Multiple Languages → All Health Topics → Atrial Fibrillation URL of this page: https://medlineplus.gov/languages/ ... V W XYZ List of All Topics All Atrial Fibrillation - Multiple Languages To use the sharing features on ...

Transmission electron microscopy of amyloid fibrils.

Science.gov (United States)

Gras, Sally L; Waddington, Lynne J; Goldie, Kenneth N

2011-01-01

Transmission Electron Microscopy of negatively stained and cryo-prepared specimens allows amyloid fibrils to be visualised at high resolution in a dried or a hydrated state, and is an essential method for characterising the morphology of fibrils and pre-fibrillar species. We outline the key steps involved in the preparation and observation of samples using negative staining and cryo-electron preservation. We also discuss methods to measure fibril characteristics, such as fibril width, from electron micrographs.

Catheter ablation versus medical therapy for patients with persistent atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from randomized controlled trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chen; Zhou, Xinbin; Zhu, Min; Chen, Shenjie; Chen, Jie; Cai, Hongwen; Dai, Jin; Xu, Xiaoming; Mao, Wei

2018-06-01

The superiority of catheter ablation (CA) for persistent (and long-standing persistent) atrial fibrillation (AF) is currently not well defined. We performed a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to assess the clinical outcomes of CA compared with medical therapy in persistent AF patients. We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and clinicaltrials.gov for RCTs comparing CA with medical therapy in patients with persistent AF. For CA vs medical rhythm control, the primary outcome was freedom from atrial arrhythmia. For CA vs medical rate control, the primary outcome was the change in the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Eight studies with a total of 809 patients were included in the final analysis. Compared with medical rhythm control, CA was superior in achieving freedom from atrial arrhythmia (RR 2.08, 95% CI [1.67, 2.58]; P medical rate control in persistent AF patients with heart failure (HF), CA significantly improved the LVEF (MD 7.72, 95%CI [4.78, 10.67]; P medical therapy in persistent AF patients and might be considered as a first-line therapy for some persistent AF patients especially for those with HF.

Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

Science.gov (United States)

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Kinetics and mechanical stability of the fibril state control fibril formation time of polypeptide chains: A computational study

Science.gov (United States)

Kouza, Maksim; Co, Nguyen Truong; Li, Mai Suan; Kmiecik, Sebastian; Kolinski, Andrzej; Kloczkowski, Andrzej; Buhimschi, Irina Alexandra

2018-06-01

Fibril formation resulting from protein misfolding and aggregation is a hallmark of several neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. Despite much progress in the understanding of the protein aggregation process, the factors governing fibril formation rates and fibril stability have not been fully understood. Using lattice models, we have shown that the fibril formation time is controlled by the kinetic stability of the fibril state but not by its energy. Having performed all-atom explicit solvent molecular dynamics simulations with the GROMOS43a1 force field for full-length amyloid beta peptides Aβ40 and Aβ42 and truncated peptides, we demonstrated that kinetic stability can be accessed via mechanical stability in such a way that the higher the mechanical stability or the kinetic stability, the faster the fibril formation. This result opens up a new way for predicting fibril formation rates based on mechanical stability that may be easily estimated by steered molecular dynamics.

Not all risks are created equal: A twin study and meta-analyses of risk taking across seven domains.

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Wang, X T Xiao-Tian; Zheng, Rui; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Chen, Jie; Li, Shu

2016-11-01

Humans routinely deal with both traditional and novel risks. Different kinds of risks have been a driving force for both evolutionary adaptations and personal development. This study explored the genetic and environmental influences on human risk taking in different task domains. Our approach was threefold. First, we integrated several scales of domain-specific risk-taking propensity and developed a synthetic scale, including both evolutionarily typical and modern risks in the following 7 domains: cooperation/competition, safety, reproduction, natural/physical risk, moral risk, financial risk, and gambling. Second, we conducted a twin study using the scale to estimate the contributions of genes and environment to risk taking in each of these 7 domains. Third, we conducted a series of meta-analyses of extant twin studies across the 7 risk domains. The results showed that individual differences in risk-taking propensity and its consistency across domains were mainly regulated by additive genetic influences and individually unique environmental experiences. The heritability estimates from the meta-analyses ranged from 29% in financial risk taking to 55% in safety. Supporting the notion of risk-domain specificity, both the behavioral and genetic correlations among the 7 domains were generally low. Among the relatively few correlations between pairs of risk domains, our analysis revealed a common genetic factor that regulates moral, financial, and natural/physical risk taking. This is the first effort to separate genetic and environmental influences on risk taking across multiple domains in a single study and integrate the findings of extant twin studies via a series of meta-analyses conducted in different task domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Development of the Veritas plot and its application in cardiac surgery: an evidence-synthesis graphic tool for the clinician to assess multiple meta-analyses reporting on a common outcome.

Science.gov (United States)

Panesar, Sukhmeet S; Rao, Christopher; Vecht, Joshua A; Mirza, Saqeb B; Netuveli, Gopalakrishnan; Morris, Richard; Rosenthal, Joe; Darzi, Ara; Athanasiou, Thanos

2009-10-01

Meta-analyses may be prone to generating misleading results because of a paucity of experimental studies (especially in surgery); publication bias; and heterogeneity in study design, intervention and the patient population of included studies. When investigating a specific clinical or scientific question on which several relevant meta-analyses may have been published, value judgments must be applied to determine which analysis represents the most robust evidence. These value judgments should be specifically acknowledged. We designed the Veritas plot to explicitly explore important elements of quality and to facilitate decision-making by highlighting specific areas in which meta-analyses are found to be deficient. Furthermore, as a graphic tool, it may be more intuitive than when similar data are presented in a tabular or text format. The Veritas plot is an adaption of the radar plot, a graphic tool for the description of multiattribute data. Key elements of meta-analytical quality such as heterogeneity, publication bias and study design are assessed. Existing qualitative methods such as the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) tool have been incorporated in addition to important considerations when interpreting surgical meta-analyses such as the year of publication and population characteristics. To demonstrate the potential of the Veritas plot to inform clinical practice, we apply the Veritas plot to the meta-analytical literature comparing the incidence of 30-day stroke in off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery and conventional coronary artery bypass surgery. We demonstrate that a visually-stimulating and practical evidence-synthesis tool can direct the clinician and scientist to a particular meta-analytical study to inform clinical practice. The Veritas plot is also cumulative and allowed us to assess the quality of evidence over time. We have presented a practical graphic application for scientists and clinicians to identify and interpret

Effect of age on stroke prevention therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation: the atrial fibrillation investigators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Walraven, Carl; Hart, Robert G; Connolly, Stuart

2009-01-01

contains patient level-data from randomized trials of stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. We used Cox regression models with age as a continuous variable that controlled for sex, year of randomization, and history of cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, and congestive heart failure......BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke risk increases with age in patients who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. It is uncertain whether the efficacy of stroke prevention therapies in atrial fibrillation changes as patients age. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of age...... on the relative efficacy of oral anticoagulants (OAC) and antiplatelet (AP) therapy (including acetylsalicylic acid and triflusal) on ischemic stroke, serious bleeding, and vascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: This is an analysis of the Atrial Fibrillation Investigators database, which...

How effective are active videogames among the young and the old? Adding meta-analyses to two recent systematic reviews

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Riet, J.P. van 't; Crutzen, R.M.M.; Lu, A.S.

2014-01-01

Objective: Two recent systematic reviews have surveyed the existing evidence for the effectiveness of active videogames in children/adolescents and in elderly people. In the present study, effect sizes were added to these systematic reviews, and meta-analyses were performed. Materials and Methods:

Interatrial septum versus right atrial appendage pacing for prevention of atrial fibrillation : A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, L; Jiang, H; Wang, W; Bai, J; Liang, Y; Su, Y; Ge, J

2017-07-28

Interatrial septum (IAS) pacing seems to be a promising strategy for the prevention of atrial fibrillation (AF); however, studies have yielded conflicting results. This meta-analysis was to compare IAS with right atrial appendage (RAA) pacing on the prevention of postpacing AF occurrence. Pubmed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science databases were searched through October 2016 for randomized controlled trials comparing IAS with RAA pacing on the prevention of AF. Data concerning study design, patient characteristics and outcomes were extracted. Risk ratio (RR), weighted mean differences (WMD) or standardized mean differences (SMD) were calculated using fixed or random effects models. A total of 12 trials involving 1146 patients with dual-chamber pacing were included. Although IAS was superior to RAA pacing in terms of reducing the number of AF episodes (SMD = -0.29, P = 0.05), AF burden (SMD = -0.41, P = 0.008) and P -wave duration (WMD = -34.45 ms, P IAS pacing. Nevertheless, no differences were observed concerning all-cause death (RR = 1.04, P = 0.88), procedure-related events (RR = 1.17, P = 0.69) and pacing parameters between IAS and RAA pacing in the follow-up period. IAS pacing is safe and as well tolerated as RAA pacing. Although IAS pacing may fail to prevent permanent AF occurrence and recurrences of AF, it is able to not only improve interatrial conduction, but also reduce AF burden.

Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2010-01-01

Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

Alginate-Collagen Fibril Composite Hydrogel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmoud Baniasadi

2015-02-01

Full Text Available We report on the synthesis and the mechanical characterization of an alginate-collagen fibril composite hydrogel. Native type I collagen fibrils were used to synthesize the fibrous composite hydrogel. We characterized the mechanical properties of the fabricated fibrous hydrogel using tensile testing; rheometry and atomic force microscope (AFM-based nanoindentation experiments. The results show that addition of type I collagen fibrils improves the rheological and indentation properties of the hydrogel.

Chondroitin Sulfate Perlecan Enhances Collagen Fibril Formation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kvist, A. J.; Johnson, A. E.; Mörgelin, M.

2006-01-01

in collagen type II fibril assembly by perlecan-null chondrocytes. Cartilage perlecan is a heparin sulfate or a mixed heparan sulfate/chondroitin sulfate proteoglycan. The latter form binds collagen and accelerates fibril formation in vitro, with more defined fibril morphology and increased fibril diameters...... produced in the presence of perlecan. Interestingly, the enhancement of collagen fibril formation is independent on the core protein and is mimicked by chondroitin sulfate E but neither by chondroitin sulfate D nor dextran sulfate. Furthermore, perlecan chondroitin sulfate contains the 4,6-disulfated...... disaccharides typical for chondroitin sulfate E. Indeed, purified glycosaminoglycans from perlecan-enriched fractions of cartilage extracts contain elevated levels of 4,6-disulfated chondroitin sulfate disaccharides and enhance collagen fibril formation. The effect on collagen assembly is proportional...

Living network meta-analysis compared with pairwise meta-analysis in comparative effectiveness research: empirical study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nikolakopoulou, Adriani; Mavridis, Dimitris; Furukawa, Toshi A; Cipriani, Andrea; Tricco, Andrea C; Straus, Sharon E; Siontis, George C M; Egger, Matthias; Salanti, Georgia

2018-02-28

To examine whether the continuous updating of networks of prospectively planned randomised controlled trials (RCTs) ("living" network meta-analysis) provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis in comparative effectiveness of medical interventions earlier than the updating of conventional, pairwise meta-analysis. Empirical study of the accumulating evidence about the comparative effectiveness of clinical interventions. Database of network meta-analyses of RCTs identified through searches of Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews until 14 April 2015. Network meta-analyses published after January 2012 that compared at least five treatments and included at least 20 RCTs. Clinical experts were asked to identify in each network the treatment comparison of greatest clinical interest. Comparisons were excluded for which direct and indirect evidence disagreed, based on side, or node, splitting test (Pmeta-analyses were performed for each selected comparison. Monitoring boundaries of statistical significance were constructed and the evidence against the null hypothesis was considered to be strong when the monitoring boundaries were crossed. A significance level was defined as α=5%, power of 90% (β=10%), and an anticipated treatment effect to detect equal to the final estimate from the network meta-analysis. The frequency and time to strong evidence was compared against the null hypothesis between pairwise and network meta-analyses. 49 comparisons of interest from 44 networks were included; most (n=39, 80%) were between active drugs, mainly from the specialties of cardiology, endocrinology, psychiatry, and rheumatology. 29 comparisons were informed by both direct and indirect evidence (59%), 13 by indirect evidence (27%), and 7 by direct evidence (14%). Both network and pairwise meta-analysis provided strong evidence against the null hypothesis for seven comparisons, but for an additional 10 comparisons only network meta-analysis provided

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

Atrial fibrillation and survival in colorectal cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin Timothy A

2004-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Survival in colorectal cancer may correlate with the degree of systemic inflammatory response to the tumour. Atrial fibrillation may be regarded as an inflammatory complication. We aimed to determine if atrial fibrillation is a prognostic factor in colorectal cancer. Patients and methods A prospective colorectal cancer patient database was cross-referenced with the hospital clinical-coding database to identify patients who had underwent colorectal cancer surgery and were in atrial fibrillation pre- or postoperatively. Results A total of 175 patients underwent surgery for colorectal cancer over a two-year period. Of these, 13 patients had atrial fibrillation pre- or postoperatively. Atrial fibrillation correlated with worse two-year survival (p = 0.04; log-rank test. However, in a Cox regression analysis, atrial fibrillation was not significantly associated with survival. Conclusion The presence or development of atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer is associated with worse overall survival, however it was not found to be an independent factor in multivariate analysis.

Interaction of magnetic nanoparticles with lysozyme amyloid fibrils

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Gdovinová, Veronika [Institute of Experimental Physics SAS, Watsonova 47, 040 01 Košice (Slovakia); Frank Laboratory of Neutron Physics, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Joliot-Curie 6, 141980 Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Tomašovičová, Natália, E-mail: nhudak@saske.sk [Institute of Experimental Physics SAS, Watsonova 47, 040 01 Košice (Slovakia); Frank Laboratory of Neutron Physics, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Joliot-Curie 6, 141980 Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Batko, Ivan; Batková, Marianna; Balejčíková, Lucia [Institute of Experimental Physics SAS, Watsonova 47, 040 01 Košice (Slovakia); Garamus, Vasyl M. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht: Zentrum fr Material, und Kstenforschung GmbH, Max-Plank-Strae 1, Geesthacht 216502 (Germany); Petrenko, Viktor I. [Frank Laboratory of Neutron Physics, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Joliot-Curie 6, 141980 Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Physics Department, Taras Shevchenko Kyiv National University, Volodymyrska Street 64, 01601 Kyiv (Ukraine); Avdeev, Mikhail V. [Frank Laboratory of Neutron Physics, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Joliot-Curie 6, 141980 Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Kopčanský, Peter [Institute of Experimental Physics SAS, Watsonova 47, 040 01 Košice (Slovakia)

2017-06-01

This work is devoted to the structural study of complex solutions of magnetic nanoparticles with lysozyme amyloid fibrils due to possible ordering of such system by applying the external magnetic field. The interaction of magnetic nanoparticles with amyloid fibrils has been followed by atomic force microscopy and small-angle X-ray scattering. It has been observed that magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) adsorb to lysozyme amyloid fibrils. It was found that MNPs alter amyloids structures, namely the diameter of lysozyme amyloid fibrils is increased whereas the length of fibrils is decreased. In the same time MNPs do not change the helical pitch significantly. - Highlights: • Solution of MNPs with lysozyme amyloid fibrils was characterized by AFM and SAXS. • MNPs adsorb to lysozyme amyloid fibrils. • Diameter and size of lysozyme amyloid fibrils change due to doping with MNPs.

Bayesian Graphical Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

2016-01-01

Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

Work related physical activity and risk of a hospital discharge diagnosis of atrial fibrillation or flutter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frost, L; Frost, P; Vestergaard, P

2005-01-01

of atrial fibrillation or flutter associated with sedentary work in a standing position, light workload, or heavy workload in men or women. CONCLUSION: No evidence was found of an association between physical activities during working hours and risk of a hospital discharge diagnosis of atrial fibrillation......, Cancer, and Health Study. The physical strain during working hours was categorised as sedentary, light, or heavy, and analysed using proportional hazard models. Subjects were followed up in the Danish National Registry of Patients and in the Danish Civil Registration System. RESULTS: During follow up...... (mean 5.7 years) a hospital discharge diagnosis of atrial fibrillation or flutter occurred in 305 men and 113 women. When using the risk of atrial fibrillation or flutter associated with sedentary work at a sitting position as a reference, no excess risk (unadjusted as well as adjusted) was found...

Comparative effectiveness of long term drug treatment strategies to prevent asthma exacerbations: network meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Loymans, Rik J. B.; Gemperli, Armin; Cohen, Judith; Rubinstein, Sidney M.; Sterk, Peter J.; Reddel, Helen K.; Jüni, Peter; ter Riet, Gerben

2014-01-01

To determine the comparative effectiveness and safety of current maintenance strategies in preventing exacerbations of asthma. Systematic review and network meta-analysis using Bayesian statistics. Cochrane systematic reviews on chronic asthma, complemented by an updated search when appropriate.

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a Weibull distribution model with Bayesian analysis approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Gondokaryono, Yudi Satria

2016-01-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants compared with warfarin at different levels of INR control in atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis of randomized trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Carmo, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Costa, Francisco; Carmo, Pedro; Cavaco, Diogo; Carvalho, Salomé; Morgado, Francisco; Adragão, Pedro; Mendes, Miguel

2017-10-01

The efficacy and safety of warfarin for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) depend on the time in the therapeutic range (TTR) with an international normalised ratio (INR) of 2.0-3.0. This meta-analysis focused the relative efficacy and safety of non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOAC) compared with warfarin at different thresholds of centre's TTR (cTTR). We searched PubMed, Embase, CENTRAL and websites of regulatory agencies, limiting searches to randomized phase 3 trials. Primary outcomes were stroke or systemic embolism (SSE) and major or non-major clinically relevant (NMCR) bleeding. We used a random-effects model to pool effect on outcomes according to different thresholds of cTTR. Four TTR sub-studies with a total of 71,222 patients were included. The benefit of NOAC in reducing SSE compared with warfarin was significantly higher in patients at cTTRwarfarin in patients at all sub-groups (0.67, 0.54-0.83 for patients at cTTRwarfarin for stroke prevention is lost above a cTTR threshold of approximately 70%, but the relative safety appears to be less modified by the centre-based quality of INR control. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian artificial intelligence

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Korb, Kevin B

2003-01-01

As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

Glucocerebrosidase mutations and neuropsychiatric phenotypes in Parkinson's disease and Lewy body dementias: Review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Creese, Byron; Bell, Emily; Johar, Iskandar; Francis, Paul; Ballard, Clive; Aarsland, Dag

2018-03-01

Heterozygous mutations in glucocerebrosidase gene (GBA) are a major genetic risk factor for Parkinson's disease (PD) and dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). Recently, there has been a considerable focus on the relationship between GBA mutations and emergence of cognitive impairment and neuropsychiatric symptoms in these diseases. Here, we review the literature in this area, with a particular focus, including meta-analysis, on the key neuropsychiatric symptoms of cognitive impairment, psychosis, and depression in Parkinson's disease. Our meta-analysis demonstrated that GBA mutations are associated with a 2.4-fold increased risk of cognitive impairment. In addition, our novel meta-analyses of psychosis and depression showed a 1.8- and 2.2-fold increased risk respectively associated with GBA mutations, although due to possible bias and heterogeneity the depression findings should be interpreted with caution. While the precise mechanisms which increase susceptibility to neurodegeneration in GBA carriers are not known, evidence of greater cortical Lewy body pathology, reduced patterns of cortical activation, and hippocampal pathology in animal models are all consistent with a direct effect of GBA mutations on these symptoms. Extension of this work in DLB and individuals without neurodegeneration will be important in further characterizing how GBA mutations increase risk for PD and DLB and influence disease course. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Analysing the length of care episode after hip fracture: a nonparametric and a parametric Bayesian approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Riihimäki, Jaakko; Sund, Reijo; Vehtari, Aki

2010-06-01

Effective utilisation of limited resources is a challenge for health care providers. Accurate and relevant information extracted from the length of stay distributions is useful for management purposes. Patient care episodes can be reconstructed from the comprehensive health registers, and in this paper we develop a Bayesian approach to analyse the length of care episode after a fractured hip. We model the large scale data with a flexible nonparametric multilayer perceptron network and with a parametric Weibull mixture model. To assess the performances of the models, we estimate expected utilities using predictive density as a utility measure. Since the model parameters cannot be directly compared, we focus on observables, and estimate the relevances of patient explanatory variables in predicting the length of stay. To demonstrate how the use of the nonparametric flexible model is advantageous for this complex health care data, we also study joint effects of variables in predictions, and visualise nonlinearities and interactions found in the data.

Risk of atrial fibrillation in diabetes mellitus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pallisgaard, Jannik L; Schjerning, Anne-Marie; Lindhardt, Tommi B

2016-01-01

AIM: Diabetes has been associated with atrial fibrillation but the current evidence is conflicting. In particular knowledge regarding young diabetes patients and the risk of developing atrial fibrillation is sparse. The aim of our study was to investigate the risk of atrial fibrillation in patients...... with diabetes compared to the background population in Denmark. METHODS AND RESULTS: Through Danish nationwide registries we included persons above 18 years of age and without prior atrial fibrillation and/or diabetes from 1996 to 2012. The study cohort was divided into a background population without diabetes...... and a diabetes group. The absolute risk of developing atrial fibrillation was calculated and Poisson regression models adjusted for sex, age and comorbidities were used to calculate incidence rate ratios of atrial fibrillation. The total study cohort included 5,081,087 persons, 4,827,713 (95%) in the background...

Embracing Uncertainty: The Interface of Bayesian Statistics and Cognitive Psychology

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Judith L. Anderson

1998-06-01

Full Text Available Ecologists working in conservation and resource management are discovering the importance of using Bayesian analytic methods to deal explicitly with uncertainty in data analyses and decision making. However, Bayesian procedures require, as inputs and outputs, an idea that is problematic for the human brain: the probability of a hypothesis ("single-event probability". I describe several cognitive concepts closely related to single-event probabilities, and discuss how their interchangeability in the human mind results in "cognitive illusions," apparent deficits in reasoning about uncertainty. Each cognitive illusion implies specific possible pitfalls for the use of single-event probabilities in ecology and resource management. I then discuss recent research in cognitive psychology showing that simple tactics of communication, suggested by an evolutionary perspective on human cognition, help people to process uncertain information more effectively as they read and talk about probabilities. In addition, I suggest that carefully considered standards for methodology and conventions for presentation may also make Bayesian analyses easier to understand.

Accurate phenotyping: Reconciling approaches through Bayesian model averaging.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carla Chia-Ming Chen

Full Text Available Genetic research into complex diseases is frequently hindered by a lack of clear biomarkers for phenotype ascertainment. Phenotypes for such diseases are often identified on the basis of clinically defined criteria; however such criteria may not be suitable for understanding the genetic composition of the diseases. Various statistical approaches have been proposed for phenotype definition; however our previous studies have shown that differences in phenotypes estimated using different approaches have substantial impact on subsequent analyses. Instead of obtaining results based upon a single model, we propose a new method, using Bayesian model averaging to overcome problems associated with phenotype definition. Although Bayesian model averaging has been used in other fields of research, this is the first study that uses Bayesian model averaging to reconcile phenotypes obtained using multiple models. We illustrate the new method by applying it to simulated genetic and phenotypic data for Kofendred personality disorder-an imaginary disease with several sub-types. Two separate statistical methods were used to identify clusters of individuals with distinct phenotypes: latent class analysis and grade of membership. Bayesian model averaging was then used to combine the two clusterings for the purpose of subsequent linkage analyses. We found that causative genetic loci for the disease produced higher LOD scores using model averaging than under either individual model separately. We attribute this improvement to consolidation of the cores of phenotype clusters identified using each individual method.

Relevance of Electrical Remodeling in Human Atrial Fibrillation Results of the Asymptomatic Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke Evaluation in Pacemaker Patients and the Atrial Fibrillation Reduction Atrial Pacing Trial Mechanisms of Atrial Fibrillation Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Healey, Jeff S.; Israel, Carsten W.; Connolly, Stuart J.; Hohnloser, Stefan H.; Nair, Girish M.; Divakaramenon, Syamkumar; Capucci, Alessandro; Van Gelder, Isabelle C.; Lau, Chu-Pak; Gold, Michael R.; Carlson, Mark; Themeles, Ellison; Morillo, Carlos A.

Background-In animal models of atrial fibrillation (AF), changes in atrial electrophysiological properties are associated with the development of AF. Their relevance to human AF is unclear. Methods and Results-The Asymptomatic Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke Evaluation in Pacemaker Patients and the

D-dimer levels and stroke progression in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krarup, L-H; Sandset, E C; Sandset, P M

2011-01-01

Krarup L-H, Sandset EC, Sandset PM, Berge E. D-dimer levels and stroke progression in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation. Acta Neurol Scand: 2011: 124: 40-44. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Background -  Patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation are at in......Krarup L-H, Sandset EC, Sandset PM, Berge E. D-dimer levels and stroke progression in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation. Acta Neurol Scand: 2011: 124: 40-44. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Background -  Patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation.......96), and the combined endpoint of stroke progression, recurrent stroke, and death (D-dimer: 991 ng/ml vs 970 ng/ml, P = 0.91). Multivariable analyses did not alter the results. Conclusion -  D-dimer and other markers of hemostatic activation were not associated with stroke progression, recurrent stroke, or death...

Pharmacological Treatment for Atrial Fibrillation

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Kaoru Sugi, MD PhD

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Pharmacological treatment for atrial fibrillation has a variety of purposes, such as pharmacological defibrillation, maintenance of sinus rhythm, heart rate control to prevent congestive heart failure and prevention of both cerebral infarction and atrial remodeling. Sodium channel blockers are superior to potassium channel blockers for atrial defibrillation, while both sodium and potassium channel blockers are effective in the maintenance of sinus rhythm. In general, digitalis or Ca antagonists are used to control heart rate during atrial fibrillation to prevent congestive heart failure, while amiodarone or bepridil also reduce heart rates during atrial fibrillation. Anticoagulant therapy with warfarin is recommended to prevent cerebral infarction and angiotensin converting enzyme antagonists or angiotensin II receptor blockers are also used to prevent atrial remodeling. One should select appropriate drugs for treatment of atrial fibrillation according to the patient's condition.

Fracture mechanics of collagen fibrils

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svensson, Rene B; Mulder, Hindrik; Kovanen, Vuokko

2013-01-01

Tendons are important load-bearing structures, which are frequently injured in both sports and work. Type I collagen fibrils are the primary components of tendons and carry most of the mechanical loads experienced by the tissue, however, knowledge of how load is transmitted between and within...... fibrils is limited. The presence of covalent enzymatic cross-links between collagen molecules is an important factor that has been shown to influence mechanical behavior of the tendons. To improve our understanding of how molecular bonds translate into tendon mechanics, we used an atomic force microscopy...... technique to measure the mechanical behavior of individual collagen fibrils loaded to failure. Fibrils from human patellar tendons, rat-tail tendons (RTTs), NaBH₄ reduced RTTs, and tail tendons of Zucker diabetic fat rats were tested. We found a characteristic three-phase stress-strain behavior in the human...

Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation of genetic maps

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

York, Thomas L.; Durrett, Richard T.; Tanksley, Steven

2005-01-01

There has recently been increased interest in the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based Bayesian methods for estimating genetic maps. The advantage of these methods is that they can deal accurately with missing data and genotyping errors. Here we present an extension of the previous methods...... of genotyping errors. A similar advantage of the Bayesian method was not observed for missing data. We also re-analyse a recently published set of data from the eggplant and show that the use of the MCMC-based method leads to smaller estimates of genetic distances....

Parent-based adolescent sexual health interventions and effect on communication outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Santa Maria, Diane; Markham, Christine; Bluethmann, Shirley; Mullen, Patricia Dolan

2015-03-01

Parent-based adolescent sexual health interventions aim to reduce sexual risk behaviors by bolstering parental protective behaviors. Few studies of theory use, methods, applications, delivery and outcomes of parent-based interventions have been conducted. A systematic search of databases for the period 1998-2013 identified 28 published trials of U.S. parent-based interventions to examine theory use, setting, reach, delivery mode, dose and effects on parent-child communication. Established coding schemes were used to assess use of theory and describe methods employed to achieve behavioral change; intervention effects were explored in meta-analyses. Most interventions were conducted with minority parents in group sessions or via self-paced activities; interventions averaged seven hours, and most used theory extensively. Meta-analyses found improvements in sexual health communication: Analysis of 11 controlled trials indicated a medium effect on increasing communication (Cohen's d, 0.5), and analysis of nine trials found a large effect on increasing parental comfort with communication (0.7); effects were positive regardless of delivery mode or intervention dose. Intervention participants were 68% more likely than controls to report increased communication and 75% more likely to report increased comfort. These findings point to gaps in the range of programs examined in published trials-for example, interventions for parents of sexual minority youth, programs for custodial grandparents and faith-based services. Yet they provide support for the effectiveness of parent-based interventions in improving communication. Innovative delivery approaches could extend programs' reach, and further research on sexual health outcomes would facilitate the meta-analysis of intervention effectiveness in improving adolescent sexual health behaviors. Copyright © 2015 by the Guttmacher Institute.

Atrial fibrillation in the elderly

Science.gov (United States)

Franken, Roberto A.; Rosa, Ronaldo F.; Santos, Silvio CM

2012-01-01

This review discusses atrial fibrillation according to the guidelines of Brazilian Society of Cardiac Arrhythmias and the Brazilian Cardiogeriatrics Guidelines. We stress the thromboembolic burden of atrial fibrillation and discuss how to prevent it as well as the best way to conduct cases of atrial fibrillatios in the elderly, reverting the arrhythmia to sinus rhythm, or the option of heart rate control. The new methods to treat atrial fibrillation, such as radiofrequency ablation, new oral direct thrombin inhibitors and Xa factor inhibitors, as well as new antiarrhythmic drugs, are depicted. PMID:22916053

Incorporating uncertainty regarding applicability of evidence from meta-analyses into clinical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Kriston, Levente; Meister, Ramona

2014-03-01

Judging applicability (relevance) of meta-analytical findings to particular clinical decision-making situations remains challenging. We aimed to describe an evidence synthesis method that accounts for possible uncertainty regarding applicability of the evidence. We conceptualized uncertainty regarding applicability of the meta-analytical estimates to a decision-making situation as the result of uncertainty regarding applicability of the findings of the trials that were included in the meta-analysis. This trial-level applicability uncertainty can be directly assessed by the decision maker and allows for the definition of trial inclusion probabilities, which can be used to perform a probabilistic meta-analysis with unequal probability resampling of trials (adaptive meta-analysis). A case study with several fictitious decision-making scenarios was performed to demonstrate the method in practice. We present options to elicit trial inclusion probabilities and perform the calculations. The result of an adaptive meta-analysis is a frequency distribution of the estimated parameters from traditional meta-analysis that provides individually tailored information according to the specific needs and uncertainty of the decision maker. The proposed method offers a direct and formalized combination of research evidence with individual clinical expertise and may aid clinicians in specific decision-making situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of rhythm control strategies versus rate control strategies for atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter: a protocol for a systematic review with meta-analysis and Trial Sequential Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sethi, Naqash J; Safi, Sanam; Nielsen, Emil E; Feinberg, Joshua; Gluud, Christian; Jakobsen, Janus C

2017-03-06

Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia of the heart with a prevalence of approximately 2% in the western world. Atrial flutter, another arrhythmia, occurs less often with an incidence of approximately 200,000 new patients per year in the USA. Patients with atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter have an increased risk of death and morbidities. The management of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter is often based on interventions aiming at either a rhythm control strategy or a rate control strategy. The evidence on the comparable effects of these strategies is unclear. This protocol for a systematic review aims at identifying the best overall treatment strategy for atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter. This protocol for a systematic review was performed following the recommendations of the Cochrane Collaboration and the eight-step assessment procedure suggested by Jakobsen and colleagues. We plan to include all relevant randomised clinical trials assessing the effects of any rhythm control strategy versus any rate control strategy. We plan to search the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, Science Citation Index Expanded on Web of Science, and BIOSIS to identify relevant trials. Any eligible trial will be assessed and classified as either high risk of bias or low risk of bias, and our conclusions will be based on trials with low risk of bias. The analyses of the extracted data will be performed using Review Manager 5 and Trial Sequential Analysis. For both our primary and secondary outcomes, we will create a 'Summary of Findings' table and use GRADE assessment to assess the quality of the evidence. The results of this systematic review have the potential to benefit thousands of patients worldwide as well as healthcare systems and healthcare economy. PROSPERO CRD42016051433.

Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders L.; Lund, Mogens

. In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions......, and that it has the ability to link uncertainty from different external sources to budget figures and to quantify risk at the farm level....

Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

2003-01-01

The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)

Fibril specific, conformation dependent antibodies recognize a generic epitope common to amyloid fibrils and fibrillar oligomers that is absent in prefibrillar oligomers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rasool Suhail

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Amyloid-related degenerative diseases are associated with the accumulation of misfolded proteins as amyloid fibrils in tissue. In Alzheimer disease (AD, amyloid accumulates in several distinct types of insoluble plaque deposits, intracellular Aβ and as soluble oligomers and the relationships between these deposits and their pathological significance remains unclear. Conformation dependent antibodies have been reported that specifically recognize distinct assembly states of amyloids, including prefibrillar oligomers and fibrils. Results We immunized rabbits with a morphologically homogeneous population of Aβ42 fibrils. The resulting immune serum (OC specifically recognizes fibrils, but not random coil monomer or prefibrillar oligomers, indicating fibrils display a distinct conformation dependent epitope that is absent in prefibrillar oligomers. The fibril epitope is also displayed by fibrils of other types of amyloids, indicating that the epitope is a generic feature of the polypeptide backbone. The fibril specific antibody also recognizes 100,000 × G soluble fibrillar oligomers ranging in size from dimer to greater than 250 kDa on western blots. The fibrillar oligomers recognized by OC are immunologically distinct from prefibrillar oligomers recognized by A11, even though their sizes overlap broadly, indicating that size is not a reliable indicator of oligomer conformation. The immune response to prefibrillar oligomers and fibrils is not sequence specific and antisera of the same specificity are produced in response to immunization with islet amyloid polypeptide prefibrillar oligomer mimics and fibrils. The fibril specific antibodies stain all types of amyloid deposits in human AD brain. Diffuse amyloid deposits stain intensely with anti-fibril antibody although they are thioflavin S negative, suggesting that they are indeed fibrillar in conformation. OC also stains islet amyloid deposits in transgenic mouse models of type

On the role of fibril mechanics in the work of separation of fibrillating interfaces

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vossen, B.G.; Sluis, van der O.; Schreurs, P.J.G.; Geers, M.G.D.; Neggers, J.; Hoefnagels, J.P.M.

2015-01-01

High values for the work of separation have been reported in peel tests on fibrillating interfacial systems. The exact origin of these high values is not properly understood, since it remains unclear which dissipative mechanisms related to fibrillation cause a significant increase in the work of

Serum BDNF concentrations as peripheral manifestations of depression : evidence from a systematic review and meta-analyses on 179 associations (N=9484)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Molendijk, M. L.; Spinhoven, P.; Polak, M.; Bus, B. A. A.; Penninx, B. W. J. H.; Elzinga, B. M.

Meta-analyses, published in 2008-2010, have confirmed abnormally low serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) concentrations in depressed patients and normalization of this by antidepressant treatment. These findings are believed to reflect peripheral manifestations of the neurotrophin

Gr/gr deletions on Y-chromosome correlate with male infertility: an original study, meta-analyses, and trial sequential analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Bansal, Sandeep Kumar; Jaiswal, Deepika; Gupta, Nishi; Singh, Kiran; Dada, Rima; Sankhwar, Satya Narayan; Gupta, Gopal; Rajender, Singh

2016-02-01

We analyzed the AZFc region of the Y-chromosome for complete (b2/b4) and distinct partial deletions (gr/gr, b1/b3, b2/b3) in 822 infertile and 225 proven fertile men. We observed complete AZFc deletions in 0.97% and partial deletions in 6.20% of the cases. Among partial deletions, the frequency of gr/gr deletions was the highest (5.84%). The comparison of partial deletion data between cases and controls suggested a significant association of the gr/gr deletions with infertility (P = 0.0004); however, the other partial deletions did not correlate with infertility. In cohort analysis, men with gr/gr deletions had a relatively poor sperm count (54.20 ± 57.45 million/ml) in comparison to those without deletions (72.49 ± 60.06), though the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.071). Meta-analysis also suggested that gr/gr deletions are significantly associated with male infertility risk (OR = 1.821, 95% CI = 1.39-2.37, p = 0.000). We also performed trial sequential analyses that strengthened the evidence for an overall significant association of gr/gr deletions with the risk of male infertility. Another meta-analysis suggested a significant association of the gr/gr deletions with low sperm count. In conclusion, the gr/gr deletions show a strong correlation with male infertility risk and low sperm count, particularly in the Caucasian populations.

Comparative efficacy of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) in treating major depressive disorder: a protocol for network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Yongliang; Zhu, Hongmei; Leung, Siu-Wai

2016-06-07

There have been inconsistent findings from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews on the efficacies of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) as the first-line treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD). Besides inconsistencies among randomised controlled trials (RCTs), their risks of bias and evidence grading have seldom been evaluated in meta-analysis. This study aims to compare the efficacy of SSRIs by conducting a Bayesian network meta-analysis, which will be the most comprehensive evaluation of evidence to resolve the inconsistency among previous studies. SSRIs including citalopram, escitalopram, fluoxetine, fluvoxamine, paroxetine, sertraline and vilazodone have been selected. Systematic database searching and screening will be conducted for the RCTs on drug treatment of patients with MDD according to pre-specified search strategies and selection criteria. PubMed, the Cochrane Library, EMBASE, ScienceDirect, the US Food and Drug Administration Website, ClinicalTrial.gov and WHO Clinical Trials will be searched. Outcome data including Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS), Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) and Clinical Global Impression (CGI) from eligible RCTs will be extracted. The outcomes will be analysed as ORs and mean differences under a random-effects model. A Bayesian network meta-analysis will be conducted with WinBUGS software, to compare the efficacies of SSRIs. Subgroup and sensitivity analysis will be performed to explain the study heterogeneity and evaluate the robustness of the results. Meta-regression analysis will be conducted to determine the possible factors affecting the efficacy outcomes. The Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool will be used to assess the RCT quality, and the Grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation will be used to assess the strength of evidence from the meta-analysis. No ethical approval is required because this study includes neither

Spectral of electrocardiographic RR intervals to indicate atrial fibrillation

Science.gov (United States)

Nuryani, Nuryani; Satrio Nugroho, Anto

2017-11-01

Atrial fibrillation is a serious heart diseases, which is associated on the risk of death, and thus an early detection of atrial fibrillation is necessary. We have investigated spectral pattern of electrocardiogram in relation to atrial fibrillation. The utilized feature of electrocardiogram is RR interval. RR interval is the time interval between a two-consecutive R peaks. A series of RR intervals in a time segment is converted to a signal with a frequency domain. The frequency components are investigated to find the components which significantly associate to atrial fibrillation. A segment is defined as atrial fibrillation or normal segments by considering a defined number of atrial fibrillation RR in the segment. Using clinical data of 23 patients with atrial fibrillation, we find that the frequency components could be used to indicate atrial fibrillation.

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

OpenAIRE

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...

Atrial natriuretic peptide in patients with heart failure and chronic atrial fibrillation : Role of duration of at atrial fibrillation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Den Berg, MP; Crijns, HJGM; Van Veldhuisen, DJ; Van Gelder, IC; De Kam, PJ; Lie, KI

The purpose of this study was to analyze the determinants of atrial natriuretic peptide level in patients with congestive heart failure and atrial fibrillation. In particular, the duration of atrial fibrillation was analyzed because atrial fibrillation per se might have a specific effect on atrial

Introduction to Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2017-01-01

There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

Thirty years of Alzheimer's disease genetics: the implications of systematic meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Bertram, Lars; Tanzi, Rudolph E

2008-10-01

The genetic underpinnings of Alzheimer's disease (AD) remain largely elusive despite early successes in identifying three genes that cause early-onset familial AD (those that encode amyloid precursor protein (APP) and the presenilins (PSEN1 and PSEN2)), and one genetic risk factor for late-onset AD (the gene that encodes apolipoprotein E (APOE)). A large number of studies that aimed to help uncover the remaining disease-related loci have been published in recent decades, collectively proposing or refuting the involvement of over 500 different gene candidates. Systematic meta-analyses of these studies currently highlight more than 20 loci that have modest but significant effects on AD risk. This Review discusses the putative pathogenetic roles and common biochemical pathways of some of the most genetically and biologically compelling of these potential AD risk factors.

Atrial fibrillation and vascular disease-a bad combination

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerring Olesen, Jonas; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

2012-01-01

This article provides an overview of (i) the risk of stroke associated with vascular disease (acute coronary syndromes and peripheral artery disease) in patients with atrial fibrillation, (ii) the frequent coexistence of vascular disease in patients with atrial fibrillation and, (iii...... fibrillation. Indeed, patients with atrial fibrillation often had coexisting vascular disease (around 18%), and the combination of the two diseases substantially increases the risk of future cardiovascular events. The increased risk associated with peripheral artery disease in atrial fibrillation is even more...... pronounced. Patients with atrial fibrillation and stable vascular disease should be treated with oral anticoagulation only, although when these patients present with acute coronary syndrome and/or undergo coronary stenting, concomitant treatment with antiplatelet drugs is indicated. To guide antithrombotic...

Spectral analysis of the IntCal98 calibration curve: a Bayesian view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palonen, V.; Tikkanen, P.

2004-01-01

Preliminary results from a Bayesian approach to find periodicities in the IntCal98 calibration curve are given. It has been shown in the literature that the discrete Fourier transform (Schuster periodogram) corresponds to the use of an approximate Bayesian model of one harmonic frequency and Gaussian noise. Advantages of the Bayesian approach include the possibility to use models for variable, attenuated and multiple frequencies, the capability to analyze unevenly spaced data and the possibility to assess the significance and uncertainties of spectral estimates. In this work, a new Bayesian model using random walk noise to take care of the trend in the data is developed. Both Bayesian models are described and the first results of the new model are reported and compared with results from straightforward discrete-Fourier-transform and maximum-entropy-method spectral analyses

The efficacy and safety of triple inhaled treatment in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis using Bayesian methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kwak MS

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Min-Sun Kwak,1 Eunyoung Kim,2 Eun Jin Jang,3 Hyun Jung Kim,4 Chang-Hoon Lee5 1Department of Internal Medicine, Healthcare Research Institute, Healthcare System Gangnam Center, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 2Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Republic of Korea; 3Department of Information Statistics, Andong National University, Andong, Republic of Korea; 4Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 5Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea Purpose: Although tiotropium (TIO and inhaled corticosteroid (ICS/long-acting β-agonists are frequently prescribed together, the efficacy of “triple therapy” has not been scientifically demonstrated. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using Bayesian methods to compare triple therapy and TIO monotherapy.Methods: We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases for randomized controlled trials comparing the efficacy and safety of triple therapy and TIO monotherapy in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. We conducted a meta-analysis to compare the effectiveness and safety of triple therapy and TIO monotherapy using Bayesian random effects models.Results: Seven trials were included, and the risk of bias in the majority of the studies was acceptable. There were no statistically significant differences in the incidence of death and acute exacerbation of disease in the triple therapy and TIO monotherapy groups. Triple therapy improved the prebronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second (mean difference [MD], 63.68 mL; 95% credible interval [CrI], 45.29–82.73, and patients receiving triple therapy showed more improvement in St George Respiratory Questionnaire scores (MD, -3.11 points; 95% Cr

Genetic basis of atrial fibrillation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oscar Campuzano

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Atrial fibrillation is the most common sustained arrhythmia and remains as one of main challenges in current clinical practice. The disease may be induced secondary to other diseases such as hypertension, valvular heart disease, and heart failure, conferring an increased risk of stroke and sudden death. Epidemiological studies have provided evidence that genetic factors play an important role and up to 30% of clinically diagnosed patients may have a family history of atrial fibrillation. To date, several rare variants have been identified in a wide range of genes associated with ionic channels, calcium handling protein, fibrosis, conduction and inflammation. Important advances in clinical, genetic and molecular basis have been performed over the last decade, improving diagnosis and treatment. However, the genetics of atrial fibrillation is complex and pathophysiological data remains still unraveling. A better understanding of the genetic basis will induce accurate risk stratification and personalized clinical treatment. In this review, we have focused on current genetics basis of atrial fibrillation.

Thyrotoxic atrial fibrillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Parmar, Malvinder S

2005-01-04

Atrial fibrillation is the most common cardiac complication of hyperthyroidism and occurs in 15% of patients with hyperthyroidism. It is associated with a higher risk of thromboembolism that often involves the central nervous system. Oral anticoagulation is important in the majority of these patients to prevent thromboembolic complications. These patients require adjustment in the dose of various rate-controlling agents because of increased clearance associated with hyperthyroidism and a decrease in warfarin dosage because of increased clearance of vitamin K-dependent clotting factors. The management of thyrotoxic atrial fibrillation is summarized in this clinical review.

Alcohol Consumption and the Physical Availability of Take-Away Alcohol: Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of the Days and Hours of Sale and Outlet Density.

Science.gov (United States)

Sherk, Adam; Stockwell, Tim; Chikritzhs, Tanya; Andréasson, Sven; Angus, Colin; Gripenberg, Johanna; Holder, Harold; Holmes, John; Mäkelä, Pia; Mills, Megan; Norström, Thor; Ramstedt, Mats; Woods, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were completed studying the effect of changes in the physical availability of take-away alcohol on per capita alcohol consumption. Previous reviews examining this topic have not focused on off-premise outlets where take-away alcohol is sold and have not completed meta-analyses. Systematic reviews were conducted separately for policies affecting the temporal availability (days and hours of sale) and spatial availability (outlet density) of take-away alcohol. Studies were included up to December 2015. Quality criteria were used to select articles that studied the effect of changes in these policies on alcohol consumption with a focus on natural experiments. Random-effects meta-analyses were applied to produce the estimated effect of an additional day of sale on total and beverage-specific consumption. Separate systematic reviews identified seven studies regarding days and hours of sale and four studies regarding density. The majority of articles included in these systematic reviews, for days/hours of sale (7/7) and outlet density (3/4), concluded that restricting the physical availability of take-away alcohol reduces per capita alcohol consumption. Meta-analyses studying the effect of adding one additional day of sale found that this was associated with per capita consumption increases of 3.4% (95% CI [2.7, 4.1]) for total alcohol, 5.3% (95% CI [3.2, 7.4]) for beer, 2.6% (95% CI [1.8, 3.5]) for wine, and 2.6% (95% CI [2.1, 3.2]) for spirits. The small number of included studies regarding hours of sale and density precluded meta-analysis. The results of this study suggest that decreasing the physical availability of take-away alcohol will decrease per capita consumption. As decreasing per capita consumption has been shown to reduce alcohol-related harm, restricting the physical availability of take-away alcohol would be expected to result in improvements to public health.

Impact of censoring on learning Bayesian networks in survival modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Stajduhar, Ivan; Dalbelo-Basić, Bojana; Bogunović, Nikola

2009-11-01

Bayesian networks are commonly used for presenting uncertainty and covariate interactions in an easily interpretable way. Because of their efficient inference and ability to represent causal relationships, they are an excellent choice for medical decision support systems in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. Although good procedures for learning Bayesian networks from data have been defined, their performance in learning from censored survival data has not been widely studied. In this paper, we explore how to use these procedures to learn about possible interactions between prognostic factors and their influence on the variate of interest. We study how censoring affects the probability of learning correct Bayesian network structures. Additionally, we analyse the potential usefulness of the learnt models for predicting the time-independent probability of an event of interest. We analysed the influence of censoring with a simulation on synthetic data sampled from randomly generated Bayesian networks. We used two well-known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data: a constraint-based method and a score-based method. We compared the performance of each method under different levels of censoring to those of the naive Bayes classifier and the proportional hazards model. We did additional experiments on several datasets from real-world medical domains. The machine-learning methods treated censored cases in the data as event-free. We report and compare results for several commonly used model evaluation metrics. On average, the proportional hazards method outperformed other methods in most censoring setups. As part of the simulation study, we also analysed structural similarities of the learnt networks. Heavy censoring, as opposed to no censoring, produces up to a 5% surplus and up to 10% missing total arcs. It also produces up to 50% missing arcs that should originally be connected to the variate of interest. Presented methods for learning Bayesian networks from

Viologen-Phosphorus Dendrimers Inhibit α-Synuclein Fibrillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Milowska, Katarzyna; Grochowina, Justyna; Katir, Nadia; El Kadib, Abdelkrim; Majoral, Jean-Pierre; Bryszewska, Maria; Gabryelak, Teresa

2013-03-04

Inhibition of α-synuclein (ASN) fibril formation is a potential therapeutic strategy in Parkinson's disease and other synucleinopathies. The aim of this study was to examine the role of viologen-phosphorus dendrimers in the α-synuclein fibrillation process and to assess the structural changes in α-synuclein under the influence of dendrimers. ASN interactions with phosphonate and pegylated surface-reactive viologen-phosphorus dendrimers were examined by measuring the zeta potential, which allowed determining the number of dendrimer molecules that bind to the ASN molecule. The fibrillation kinetics and the structural changes were examined using ThT fluorescence and CD spectroscopy. Depending on the concentration of the used dendrimer and the nature of the reactive groups located on the surface, ASN fibrillation kinetics can be significantly reduced, and even, in the specific case of phosphonate dendrimers, the fibrillation can be totally inhibited at low concentrations. The presented results indicate that viologen-phosphorus dendrimers are able to inhibit ASN fibril formation and may be used as fibrillar regulating agents in neurodegenerative disorders.

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

Science.gov (United States)

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Systematic review and meta-analyses of psychosocial interventions for veterans of the military

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neil J. Kitchiner

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Background: The efficacy of psychosocial therapies for common mental health disorders in veterans is unclear and requires further examination. Method: Systematic review and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials (RCTs. Twenty databases were searched. Studies were included if they reported a psychosocial intervention designed to treat or reduce common mental health symptoms in veterans identified as being symptomatic at the time they entered the study. Studies of substance dependency disorders and psychosis were excluded. Eligible studies were assessed against methodological quality criteria and data were extracted and analysed. Results: Twenty-nine RCTs were identified. There was evidence for the use of trauma-focused therapies for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD and some evidence for psychological interventions in the treatment of borderline personality disorder, depression, insomnia, and panic disorder co-morbid to PTSD. However, methodological quality of many of the studies was less than optimal. Conclusions: Trauma-focused psychological therapies are likely to be effective for combat-related PTSD but there is a need for more research to determine the efficacy of psychological treatments for other mental health disorders in veterans.

Visualisation during ablation of atrial fibrillation - stimulating the patient's own resources

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørgaard, Marianne W; Pedersen, Preben U; Bjerrum, Merete

2014-01-01

management. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to investigate patients' experiences with visualisation in relation to pain and anxiety during an intervention consisting of visualisation, when undergoing ablation of atrial fibrillation. METHODS: Qualitative interviews were conducted with 14 patients from...... a study population of a clinical controlled study with 147 patients. The transcribed interviews were analysed according to qualitative methodology of inductive content analysis. FINDINGS: Four categories emerged from the interviews: 'approach to visualisation'; 'strategies of managing pain'; 'strategies...... in managing pain and anxiety. Our findings indicate that visualisation for acute pain during ablation of atrial fibrillation was associated not only with a decrease in experience of pain but also with high levels of treatment satisfaction and other non-pain-related benefits....

Study of correlation between polymorphism of angiotensin II-1 receptor gene A1166 genotype and complications in atrial fibrillation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yueping; Gong Wuxing; Shi Li

2010-01-01

Objective: To investigate the effect of genetic polymorphism on atrial fibrillation. Methods: Polymerase chain reaction-restrictive fragment length polymorphism(PCR-RFLP) was used to identify and compare the genotype of the location of AT1R gene 1166, and color echo-ultrasound was performed with logistic regression used to analyse the independent risk of various genotypes for atrial fibrillation in 121 patients with atrial fibrillation and 100 controls. Results: (1) Frequency of genotype AC + CC, iso-gene C in atrial fibrillation group was higher than that in control group (P=0.017, 0.013), the risk ratio in patients with genotype AC + CC to develop atrial fibrillation was 3.657 compared with genotype AA (95% CI:1.181∼11.322), and genotype difference as well as systolic pressure were involved in occurrence of overall atrial fibrillation. The OR to develop atrial fibrillation in patients with genotype AC + CC was 4.132 compared with genotype AA (95% CI:1.263∼13.513). (2) There were no significant differences of clinical manifestation (heart failure, cerebral embolism) or ultrasonic parameters among patients with different genotypes (AA vs AC + CC)(P>0.05). Conclusion: People carrying iso-gene C in AT1R gene 1166 were more liable to develop atrial fibrillation, but there were no correlationship with development of complications. (authors)

Integrative multi-platform meta-analysis of gene expression profiles in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients for identifying novel diagnostic biomarkers.

Science.gov (United States)

Irigoyen, Antonio; Jimenez-Luna, Cristina; Benavides, Manuel; Caba, Octavio; Gallego, Javier; Ortuño, Francisco Manuel; Guillen-Ponce, Carmen; Rojas, Ignacio; Aranda, Enrique; Torres, Carolina; Prados, Jose

2018-01-01

Applying differentially expressed genes (DEGs) to identify feasible biomarkers in diseases can be a hard task when working with heterogeneous datasets. Expression data are strongly influenced by technology, sample preparation processes, and/or labeling methods. The proliferation of different microarray platforms for measuring gene expression increases the need to develop models able to compare their results, especially when different technologies can lead to signal values that vary greatly. Integrative meta-analysis can significantly improve the reliability and robustness of DEG detection. The objective of this work was to develop an integrative approach for identifying potential cancer biomarkers by integrating gene expression data from two different platforms. Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), where there is an urgent need to find new biomarkers due its late diagnosis, is an ideal candidate for testing this technology. Expression data from two different datasets, namely Affymetrix and Illumina (18 and 36 PDAC patients, respectively), as well as from 18 healthy controls, was used for this study. A meta-analysis based on an empirical Bayesian methodology (ComBat) was then proposed to integrate these datasets. DEGs were finally identified from the integrated data by using the statistical programming language R. After our integrative meta-analysis, 5 genes were commonly identified within the individual analyses of the independent datasets. Also, 28 novel genes that were not reported by the individual analyses ('gained' genes) were also discovered. Several of these gained genes have been already related to other gastroenterological tumors. The proposed integrative meta-analysis has revealed novel DEGs that may play an important role in PDAC and could be potential biomarkers for diagnosing the disease.

Trial Sequential Analysis in systematic reviews with meta-analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wetterslev, Jørn; Jakobsen, Janus Christian; Gluud, Christian

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Most meta-analyses in systematic reviews, including Cochrane ones, do not have sufficient statistical power to detect or refute even large intervention effects. This is why a meta-analysis ought to be regarded as an interim analysis on its way towards a required information size...... from traditional meta-analyses using unadjusted naïve 95% confidence intervals and 5% thresholds for statistical significance. Spurious conclusions in systematic reviews with traditional meta-analyses can be reduced using Trial Sequential Analysis. Several empirical studies have demonstrated...

The role of protonation in protein fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeppesen, Martin D; Westh, Peter; Otzen, Daniel E

2010-01-01

Many proteins fibrillate at low pH despite a high population of charged side chains. Therefore exchange of protons between the fibrillating peptide and its surroundings may play an important role in fibrillation. Here, we use isothermal titration calorimetry to measure exchange of protons between...... buffer and the peptide hormone glucagon during fibrillation. Glucagon absorbs or releases protons to an extent which allows it to attain a net charge of zero in the fibrillar state, both at acidic and basic pH. Similar results are obtained for lysozyme. This suggests that side chain pKa values change...

Bayesian experts in exploring reaction kinetics of transcription circuits.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshida, Ryo; Saito, Masaya M; Nagao, Hiromichi; Higuchi, Tomoyuki

2010-09-15

Biochemical reactions in cells are made of several types of biological circuits. In current systems biology, making differential equation (DE) models simulatable in silico has been an appealing, general approach to uncover a complex world of biochemical reaction dynamics. Despite of a need for simulation-aided studies, our research field has yet provided no clear answers: how to specify kinetic values in models that are difficult to measure from experimental/theoretical analyses on biochemical kinetics. We present a novel non-parametric Bayesian approach to this problem. The key idea lies in the development of a Dirichlet process (DP) prior distribution, called Bayesian experts, which reflects substantive knowledge on reaction mechanisms inherent in given models and experimentally observable kinetic evidences to the subsequent parameter search. The DP prior identifies significant local regions of unknown parameter space before proceeding to the posterior analyses. This article reports that a Bayesian expert-inducing stochastic search can effectively explore unknown parameters of in silico transcription circuits such that solutions of DEs reproduce transcriptomic time course profiles. A sample source code is available at the URL http://daweb.ism.ac.jp/~yoshidar/lisdas/.

RR-Interval variance of electrocardiogram for atrial fibrillation detection

Science.gov (United States)

Nuryani, N.; Solikhah, M.; Nugoho, A. S.; Afdala, A.; Anzihory, E.

2016-11-01

Atrial fibrillation is a serious heart problem originated from the upper chamber of the heart. The common indication of atrial fibrillation is irregularity of R peak-to-R-peak time interval, which is shortly called RR interval. The irregularity could be represented using variance or spread of RR interval. This article presents a system to detect atrial fibrillation using variances. Using clinical data of patients with atrial fibrillation attack, it is shown that the variance of electrocardiographic RR interval are higher during atrial fibrillation, compared to the normal one. Utilizing a simple detection technique and variances of RR intervals, we find a good performance of atrial fibrillation detection.

Large-scale genome-wide association studies and meta-analyses of longitudinal change in adult lung function.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenbo Tang

Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS have identified numerous loci influencing cross-sectional lung function, but less is known about genes influencing longitudinal change in lung function.We performed GWAS of the rate of change in forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1 in 14 longitudinal, population-based cohort studies comprising 27,249 adults of European ancestry using linear mixed effects model and combined cohort-specific results using fixed effect meta-analysis to identify novel genetic loci associated with longitudinal change in lung function. Gene expression analyses were subsequently performed for identified genetic loci. As a secondary aim, we estimated the mean rate of decline in FEV1 by smoking pattern, irrespective of genotypes, across these 14 studies using meta-analysis.The overall meta-analysis produced suggestive evidence for association at the novel IL16/STARD5/TMC3 locus on chromosome 15 (P  =  5.71 × 10(-7. In addition, meta-analysis using the five cohorts with ≥3 FEV1 measurements per participant identified the novel ME3 locus on chromosome 11 (P  =  2.18 × 10(-8 at genome-wide significance. Neither locus was associated with FEV1 decline in two additional cohort studies. We confirmed gene expression of IL16, STARD5, and ME3 in multiple lung tissues. Publicly available microarray data confirmed differential expression of all three genes in lung samples from COPD patients compared with controls. Irrespective of genotypes, the combined estimate for FEV1 decline was 26.9, 29.2 and 35.7 mL/year in never, former, and persistent smokers, respectively.In this large-scale GWAS, we identified two novel genetic loci in association with the rate of change in FEV1 that harbor candidate genes with biologically plausible functional links to lung function.

Closure of patent foramen ovale for cryptogenic stroke patients: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Xuan; Ou-Yang, Guang; Yan, Peng-Fei; Huang, Shu-Lan; Zhang, Zhen-Tao; Zhang, Zhao-Hui

2018-06-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to investigate the efficacy and safety of transcatheter device closure (TDC) plus anti-thrombotic drugs over medical management alone for patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen oval. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library database were searched for randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs). The primary endpoint is the composite of stroke and transient ischemic attack. The secondary endpoints are all-cause mortality, total serious adverse events, atrial fibrillation and bleeding. Five RCTs with a total of 3440 participants were included. TDC significantly decreased the risk of primary endpoint when compared to medical therapy alone (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.43-0.69). Further subgroup analyses showed that patients with male gender and with substantial shunt size of foramen ovale significantly benefited from TDC as compared to those with female gender and with no substantial shunt size of foramen oval separately. Moreover, TDC was superior to medical therapy with anti-platelet drug alone (not with anti-coagulation). On the other hand, the incidence of atrial fibrillation was higher in TDC group (RR 4.49, 95% CI 2.02-9.97), with the risk of other adverse events equivalent between the two groups. TDC plus anti-thrombotic drugs is superior than medical therapy alone for secondary prevention of stroke, especially for those with male gender and with substantial shunt size of foramen ovale. Though it may increase the risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation, it would not bring higher risk of all-cause mortality, total adverse events and bleeding.

Atrial fibrillation screening in pharmacies using an iPhone ECG: a qualitative review of implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lowres, Nicole; Krass, Ines; Neubeck, Lis; Redfern, Julie; McLachlan, Andrew J; Bennett, Alexandra A; Freedman, S Ben

2015-12-01

Atrial fibrillation guidelines advocate screening to identify undiagnosed atrial fibrillation. Community pharmacies may provide an opportunistic venue for such screening. To explore the experience of implementing an atrial fibrillation screening service from the pharmacist's perspective including: the process of study implementation; the perceived benefits; the barriers and enablers; and the challenges for future sustainability of atrial fibrillation screening within pharmacies. Setting Interviews were conducted face-to-face in the pharmacy or via telephone, according to pharmacist preference. The 'SEARCH-AF study' screened 1000 pharmacy customers aged ≥65 years using an iPhone electrocardiogram, identifying 1.5 % with undiagnosed atrial fibrillation. Nine pharmacists took part in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were transcribed in full and thematically analysed. Qualitative analysis of the experience of implementing an AF screening service from the pharmacist's perspective. Four broad themes relating to service provision were identified: (1) interest and engagement in atrial fibrillation screening by pharmacists, customers, and doctors with the novel, easy-to-use electrocardiogram technology serving as an incentive to undergo screening and an education tool for pharmacists to use with customers; (2) perceived benefits to the pharmacist including increased job satisfaction, improvement in customer relations and pharmacy profile by fostering enhanced customer care and the educational role of pharmacists; (3) implementation barriers including managing workflow, and enablers such as personal approaches for recruitment, and allocating time to discuss screening process and fears; and, (4) potential for sustainable future implementation including remuneration linked to government or pharmacy incentives, combined cardiovascular screening, and automating sections of risk-assessments using touch-screen technology. Atrial fibrillation screening in pharmacies is well

Self-consistent Bayesian analysis of space-time symmetry studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, E.D.

1996-01-01

We introduce a Bayesian method for the analysis of epithermal neutron transmission data on space-time symmetries in which unique assignment of the prior is achieved by maximisation of the cross entropy and the imposition of a self-consistency criterion. Unlike the maximum likelihood method used in previous analyses of parity-violation data, our method is freed of an ad hoc cutoff parameter. Monte Carlo studies indicate that our self-consistent Bayesian analysis is superior to the maximum likelihood method when applied to the small data samples typical of symmetry studies. (orig.)

Evidence of structurally continuous collagen fibrils in tendon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svensson, Rene B; Herchenhan, Andreas; Starborg, Tobias

2017-01-01

favor continuity. This study initially set out to trace the full length of individual fibrils in adult human tendons, using serial block face-scanning electron microscopy. But even with this advanced technique the required length could not be covered. Instead a statistical approach was used on a large...... volume of fibrils in shorter image stacks. Only a single end was observed after tracking 67.5 mm of combined fibril lengths, in support of fibril continuity. To shed more light on this observation, the full length of a short tendon (mouse stapedius, 125 μm) was investigated and continuity of individual...... fibrils was confirmed. In light of these results, possible mechanisms that could reconcile the opposing findings on fibril continuity are discussed. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Connective tissues hold all parts of the body together and are mostly constructed from thin threads of the protein collagen...

Effects of parenting interventions for at-risk parents with infants: a systematic review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Rayce, Signe B; Rasmussen, Ida S; Klest, Sihu K; Patras, Joshua; Pontoppidan, Maiken

2017-12-27

Infancy is a critical stage of life, and a secure relationship with caring and responsive caregivers is crucial for healthy infant development. Early parenting interventions aim to support families in which infants are at risk of developmental harm. Our objective is to systematically review the effects of parenting interventions on child development and on parent-child relationship for at-risk families with infants aged 0-12 months. This is a systematic review and meta-analyses. We extracted publications from 10 databases in June 2013, January 2015 and June 2016, and supplemented with grey literature and hand search. We assessed risk of bias, calculated effect sizes and conducted meta-analyses. (1) Randomised controlled trials of structured psychosocial interventions offered to at-risk families with infants aged 0-12 months in Western Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, (2) interventions with a minimum of three sessions and at least half of these delivered postnatally and (3) outcomes reported for child development or parent-child relationship. Sixteen studies were included. Meta-analyses were conducted on seven outcomes represented in 13 studies. Parenting interventions significantly improved child behaviour ( d =0.14; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.26), parent-child relationship ( d =0.44; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.80) and maternal sensitivity ( d =0.46; 95% CI 0.26 to 0.65) postintervention. There were no significant effects on cognitive development ( d= 0.13; 95% CI -0.08 to 0.41), internalising behaviour ( d= 0.16; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.33) or externalising behaviour ( d= 0.16; 95% CI -0.01 to 0.30) post-intervention. At long-term follow-up we found no significant effect on child behaviour ( d= 0.15; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.31). Interventions offered to at-risk families in the first year of the child's life appear to improve child behaviour, parent-child relationship and maternal sensitivity post-intervention, but not child cognitive

Chirality and chiroptical properties of amyloid fibrils.

Science.gov (United States)

Dzwolak, Wojciech

2014-09-01

Chirality of amyloid fibrils-linear beta-sheet-rich aggregates of misfolded protein chains-often manifests in morphological traits such as helical twist visible in atomic force microscopy and in chiroptical properties accessible to vibrational circular dichroism (VCD). According to recent studies the relationship between molecular chirality of polypeptide building blocks and superstructural chirality of amyloid fibrils may be more intricate and less deterministic than previously assumed. Several puzzling experimental findings have put into question earlier intuitive ideas on: 1) the bottom-up chirality transfer upon amyloidogenic self-assembly, and 2) the structural origins of chiroptical properties of protein aggregates. For example, removal of a single amino acid residue from an amyloidogenic all-L peptide was shown to reverse handedness of fibrils. On the other hand, certain types of amyloid aggregates revealed surprisingly strong VCD spectra with the sign and shape dependent on the conditions of fibrillation. Hence, microscopic and chiroptical studies have highlighted chirality as one more aspect of polymorphism of amyloid fibrils. This brief review is intended to outline the current state of research on amyloid-like fibrils from the perspective of their structural and superstructural chirality and chiroptical properties. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling generic aspects of ideal fibril formation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michel, D., E-mail: denis.michel@live.fr [Universite de Rennes1-IRSET, Campus de Beaulieu Bat. 13, 35042 Rennes (France)

2016-01-21

Many different proteins self-aggregate into insoluble fibrils growing apically by reversible addition of elementary building blocks. But beyond this common principle, the modalities of fibril formation are very disparate, with various intermediate forms which can be reshuffled by minor modifications of physico-chemical conditions or amino-acid sequences. To bypass this complexity, the multifaceted phenomenon of fibril formation is reduced here to its most elementary principles defined for a linear prototype of fibril. Selected generic features, including nucleation, elongation, and conformational recruitment, are modeled using minimalist hypotheses and tools, by separating equilibrium from kinetic aspects and in vitro from in vivo conditions. These reductionist approaches allow to bring out known and new rudiments, including the kinetic and equilibrium effects of nucleation, the dual influence of elongation on nucleation, the kinetic limitations on nucleation and fibril numbers, and the accumulation of complexes in vivo by rescue from degradation. Overlooked aspects of these processes are also pointed: the exponential distribution of fibril lengths can be recovered using various models because it is attributable to randomness only. It is also suggested that the same term “critical concentration” is used for different things, involved in either nucleation or elongation.

Proinsulin C-peptide interferes with insulin fibril formation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landreh, Michael; Stukenborg, Jan-Bernd; Willander, Hanna; Söder, Olle; Johansson, Jan; Jörnvall, Hans

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Insulin and C-peptide can interact under insulin fibril forming conditions. ► C-peptide is incorporated into insulin aggregates and alters aggregation lag time. ► C-peptide changes insulin fibril morphology and affects backbone accessibility. ► C-peptide may be a regulator of fibril formation by β-cell granule proteins. -- Abstract: Insulin aggregation can prevent rapid insulin uptake and cause localized amyloidosis in the treatment of type-1 diabetes. In this study, we investigated the effect of C-peptide, the 31-residue peptide cleaved from proinsulin, on insulin fibrillation at optimal conditions for fibrillation. This is at low pH and high concentration, when the fibrils formed are regular and extended. We report that C-peptide then modulates the insulin aggregation lag time and profoundly changes the fibril appearance, to rounded clumps of short fibrils, which, however, still are Thioflavine T-positive. Electrospray ionization mass spectrometry also indicates that C-peptide interacts with aggregating insulin and is incorporated into the aggregates. Hydrogen/deuterium exchange mass spectrometry further reveals reduced backbone accessibility in insulin aggregates formed in the presence of C-peptide. Combined, these effects are similar to those of C-peptide on islet amyloid polypeptide fibrillation and suggest that C-peptide has a general ability to interact with amyloidogenic proteins from pancreatic β-cell granules. Considering the concentrations, these peptide interactions should be relevant also during physiological secretion, and even so at special sites post-secretory or under insulin treatment conditions in vivo.

Proinsulin C-peptide interferes with insulin fibril formation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Landreh, Michael [Department of Medical Biochemistry and Biophysics, Karolinska Institutet, S-171 77 Stockholm (Sweden); Stukenborg, Jan-Bernd [Department of Women' s and Children' s Health, Astrid Lindgren Children' s Hospital, Pediatric Endocrinology Unit, Karolinska Institutet and University Hospital, S-17176 Stockholm (Sweden); Willander, Hanna [KI-Alzheimer' s Disease Research Center, NVS Department, Karolinska Institutet, S-141 86 Stockholm (Sweden); Soeder, Olle [Department of Women' s and Children' s Health, Astrid Lindgren Children' s Hospital, Pediatric Endocrinology Unit, Karolinska Institutet and University Hospital, S-17176 Stockholm (Sweden); Johansson, Jan [KI-Alzheimer' s Disease Research Center, NVS Department, Karolinska Institutet, S-141 86 Stockholm (Sweden); Department of Anatomy, Physiology and Biochemistry, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, S-751 23 Uppsala (Sweden); Joernvall, Hans, E-mail: Hans.Jornvall@ki.se [Department of Medical Biochemistry and Biophysics, Karolinska Institutet, S-171 77 Stockholm (Sweden)

2012-02-17

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Insulin and C-peptide can interact under insulin fibril forming conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer C-peptide is incorporated into insulin aggregates and alters aggregation lag time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer C-peptide changes insulin fibril morphology and affects backbone accessibility. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer C-peptide may be a regulator of fibril formation by {beta}-cell granule proteins. -- Abstract: Insulin aggregation can prevent rapid insulin uptake and cause localized amyloidosis in the treatment of type-1 diabetes. In this study, we investigated the effect of C-peptide, the 31-residue peptide cleaved from proinsulin, on insulin fibrillation at optimal conditions for fibrillation. This is at low pH and high concentration, when the fibrils formed are regular and extended. We report that C-peptide then modulates the insulin aggregation lag time and profoundly changes the fibril appearance, to rounded clumps of short fibrils, which, however, still are Thioflavine T-positive. Electrospray ionization mass spectrometry also indicates that C-peptide interacts with aggregating insulin and is incorporated into the aggregates. Hydrogen/deuterium exchange mass spectrometry further reveals reduced backbone accessibility in insulin aggregates formed in the presence of C-peptide. Combined, these effects are similar to those of C-peptide on islet amyloid polypeptide fibrillation and suggest that C-peptide has a general ability to interact with amyloidogenic proteins from pancreatic {beta}-cell granules. Considering the concentrations, these peptide interactions should be relevant also during physiological secretion, and even so at special sites post-secretory or under insulin treatment conditions in vivo.

Methological quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses on acupuncture for stroke: A review of review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xin-Lin; Mo, Chuan-Wei; Lu, Li-Ya; Gao, Ri-Yang; Xu, Qian; Wu, Min-Feng; Zhou, Qian-Yi; Hu, Yue; Zhou, Xuan; Li, Xian-Tao

2017-11-01

To assess the methodological quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses regarding acupuncture intervention for stroke and the primary studies within them. Two researchers searched PubMed, Cumulative index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Embase, ISI Web of Knowledge, Cochrane, Allied and Complementary Medicine, Ovid Medline, Chinese Biomedical Literature Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang and Traditional Chinese Medical Database to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses about acupuncture for stroke published from the inception to December 2016. Review characteristics and the criteria for assessing the primary studies within reviews were extracted. The methodological quality of the reviews was assessed using adapted Oxman and Guyatt Scale. The methodological quality of primary studies was also assessed. Thirty-two eligible reviews were identified, 15 in English and 17 in Chinese. The English reviews were scored higher than the Chinese reviews (P=0.025), especially in criteria for avoiding bias and the scope of search. All reviews used the quality criteria to evaluate the methodological quality of primary studies, but some criteria were not comprehensive. The primary studies, in particular the Chinese reviews, had problems with randomization, allocation concealment, blinding, dropouts and withdrawals, intent-to-treat analysis and adverse events. Important methodological flaws were found in Chinese systematic reviews and primary studies. It was necessary to improve the methodological quality and reporting quality of both the systematic reviews published in China and primary studies on acupuncture for stroke.

Locomotor activity measures in the diagnosis of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder: Meta-analyses and new findings

Science.gov (United States)

Murillo, Lourdes García; Cortese, Samuele; Anderson, David; Martino, Adriana Di; Castellanos, Francisco Xavier

2015-01-01

Introduction Our aim was to assess differences in movement measures in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) vs. typically developing (TD) controls. Methods We performed meta-analyses of published studies on motion measures contrasting ADHD with controls. We also conducted a case-control study with children/adolescents (n=61 TD, n=62 ADHD) and adults (n=30 TD, n=19 ADHD) using the McLean Motion Activity Test, semi-structured diagnostic interviews and the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function and Conners (Parent, Teacher; Self) Rating Scales. Results Meta-analyses revealed medium-to-large effect sizes for actigraph (standardized mean difference [SMD]: 0.64, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 0.43, 0.85) and motion tracking systems (SDM: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.65, 1.20) measures in differentiating individuals with ADHD from controls. Effects sizes were similar in studies of children/adolescents ([SMD]:0.75, 95% CI: 0.50, 1.01) and of adults ([SMD]: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.46, 1.00). In our sample, ADHD groups differed significantly in number of Head Movements (p=0.02 in children; p=0.002 in adults), Displacement (p=0.009/pADHD (d=0.45, 95% CI: 0.08, 0.82). In the concurrent go/no-go task, reaction time variability was significantly greater in ADHD (pADHD even in adults. Our results suggest that objective locomotion measures may be particularly useful in evaluating adults with possible ADHD. PMID:25770940

Protein Polymerization into Fibrils from the Viewpoint of Nucleation Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Kashchiev, Dimo

2015-11-17

The assembly of various proteins into fibrillar aggregates is an important phenomenon with wide implications ranging from human disease to nanoscience. Using general kinetic results of nucleation theory, we analyze the polymerization of protein into linear or helical fibrils in the framework of the Oosawa-Kasai (OK) model. We show that while within the original OK model of linear polymerization the process does not involve nucleation, within a modified OK model it is nucleation-mediated. Expressions are derived for the size of the fibril nucleus, the work for fibril formation, the nucleation barrier, the equilibrium and stationary fibril size distributions, and the stationary fibril nucleation rate. Under otherwise equal conditions, this rate decreases considerably when the short (subnucleus) fibrils lose monomers much more frequently than the long (supernucleus) fibrils, a feature that should be born in mind when designing a strategy for stymying or stimulating fibril nucleation. The obtained dependence of the nucleation rate on the concentration of monomeric protein is convenient for experimental verification and for use in rate equations accounting for nucleation-mediated fibril formation. The analysis and the results obtained for linear fibrils are fully applicable to helical fibrils whose formation is describable by a simplified OK model. Copyright © 2015 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Artificial atrial fibrillation in the dog. An artifact?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Strackee, J.; Hoelen, A.J.; Zimmerman, A.N.E.; Meijler, F.L.

R-R interval sequences during artificial atrial fibrillation in dogs were studied in the same way as in patients in a previous study and compared with results obtained in dogs with spontaneous atrial fibrillation. Artificial atrial fibrillation was effected by right atrial stimulation in three

Evidence of a major gene from Bayesian segregation analyses of liability to osteochondral diseases in pigs.

Science.gov (United States)

Kadarmideen, Haja N; Janss, Luc L G

2005-11-01

Bayesian segregation analyses were used to investigate the mode of inheritance of osteochondral lesions (osteochondrosis, OC) in pigs. Data consisted of 1163 animals with OC and their pedigrees included 2891 animals. Mixed-inheritance threshold models (MITM) and several variants of MITM, in conjunction with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, were developed for the analysis of these (categorical) data. Results showed major genes with significant and substantially higher variances (range 1.384-37.81), compared to the polygenic variance (sigmau2). Consequently, heritabilities for a mixed inheritance (range 0.65-0.90) were much higher than the heritabilities from the polygenes. Disease allele frequencies range was 0.38-0.88. Additional analyses estimating the transmission probabilities of the major gene showed clear evidence for Mendelian segregation of a major gene affecting osteochondrosis. The variants, MITM with informative prior on sigmau2, showed significant improvement in marginal distributions and accuracy of parameters. MITM with a "reduced polygenic model" for parameterization of polygenic effects avoided convergence problems and poor mixing encountered in an "individual polygenic model." In all cases, "shrinkage estimators" for fixed effects avoided unidentifiability for these parameters. The mixed-inheritance linear model (MILM) was also applied to all OC lesions and compared with the MITM. This is the first study to report evidence of major genes for osteochondral lesions in pigs; these results may also form a basis for underpinning the genetic inheritance of this disease in other animals as well as in humans.

[How Reliable are Meta-Analyses? An Appraisal Using the Example of Magnesium Tocolysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Czekelius, P; Wenzel, H

2016-04-01

Crowther et al. 3 analysed the effectivity of magnesium tocolysis in preventing preterm birth. They conclude that there is no evidence for protection. In its latest guidelines, based on this Cochrane analysis, the German Association of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (DGGG) does not recommend any more the use of magnesium for tocolysis. Magnesium tocolysis is said neither to delay nor to prevent preterm birth. Moreover, magnesium could be responsible for increased mortality in infants. These conclusions are mostly based on the research of Mittendorf et al. 4. In a Cochrane study from 2014, which in principal was identical to the study mentioned above 3, Crowther et al. 6 confirm the previous findings and conclusions. Having successfully applied magnesium tocolysis for many years, these surprising conclusions led us to review the soundness of the publications mentioned above. Combining the practical experience of many years with the results of a comprehensive literature retrieval, we finally contrasted this knowledge with the findings of the aforementioned publications that caused the DGGG to withdraw the recommendation for magnesium. To draw binding consequences from a meta-analysis is possible only when stringent quality guidelines are observed. The studies that were included in the Cochrane review of Crowther et al. 3 are very heterogeneous and are not suitable for concluding on poor or even lacking effectiveness of magnesium tocolysis. Furthermore, the cases of infant deaths, as stated by Mittendorf et al. 4, are very unlikely caused by magnesium. When including studies in a meta-analysis special attention has to be given to the relevance and unbiased selection of studies. To prevent any misjudgment, a thorough knowledge of the included studies seems essentiell. There is not sufficient evidence to withdraw the recommendation for applying magnesium tocolysis as a preventive measure to prevent preterm birth. In the sense of evidence-based medicine, long

Cognitive dysfunction in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia: a systematic review of meta-analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bortolato B

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Beatrice Bortolato,1 Kamilla W Miskowiak,2 Cristiano A Köhler,3 Eduard Vieta,4 André F Carvalho3 1Department of Mental Health, ULSS 10 “Veneto Orientale”, Venice, Italy; 2Psychiatric Centre Copenhagen, Copenhagen University Hospital, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark; 3Translational Psychiatry Research Group and Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Ceará, Fortaleza, CE, Brazil; 4Bipolar Disorders Program, Institute of Neuroscience, Hospital Clínic Barcelona, IDIBAPS, CIBERSAM, University of Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain Abstract: Cognitive impairment is a core feature of schizophrenia (SZ and bipolar disorder (BD. A neurocognitive profile characterized by widespread cognitive deficits across multiple domains in the context of substantial intellectual impairment, which appears to antedate illness onset, is a replicated finding in SZ. There is no specific neuropsychological signature that can facilitate the diagnostic differentiation of SZ and BD, notwithstanding, neuropsychological deficits appear more severe in SZ. The literature in this field has provided contradictory results due to methodological differences across studies. Meta-analytic techniques may offer an opportunity to synthesize findings and to control for potential sources of heterogeneity. Here, we performed a systematic review of meta-analyses of neuropsychological findings in SZ and BD. While there is no conclusive evidence for progressive cognitive deterioration in either SZ or BD, some findings point to more severe cognitive deficits in patients with early illness onset across both disorders. A compromised pattern of cognitive functioning in individuals at familiar and/or clinical risk to psychosis as well as in first-degree relatives of BD patients suggests that early neurodevelopmental factors may play a role in the emergence of cognitive deficits in both disorders. Premorbid intellectual impairment in SZ and at least in a

Bayesian biostatistics

CERN Document Server

Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2012-01-01

The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

Metastable Amyloid Phases and their Conversion to Mature Fibrils

Science.gov (United States)

Muschol, Martin; Miti, Tatiana; Mulaj, Mentor; Schmit, Jeremy

Self-assembly of proteins into amyloid fibrils plays a key role in both functional biological responses and pathogenic disorders which include Alzheimer's disease and type II diabetes. Amyloid fibril assembly frequently generates compact oligomeric and curvilinear polymeric intermediates which are implicated to be toxic to cells. Yet, the relation between these early-stage oligomeric aggregates and late-stage rigid fibrils, which are the hallmark structure of amyloid plaques, has remained unclear. Our measurements indicate that lysozyme amyloid oligomers and their curvilinear fibrils only form after crossing a salt and protein concentration dependent threshold. These oligomeric aggregates are structurally distinct from rigid fibrils and are metastable against nucleation and growth of rigid fibrils. Our experimental transition boundaries match well with colloidal model predictions accounting for salt-modulated charge repulsion. We also report our preliminary findings on the mechanism by which these metastable oligomeric phases are converted into stable amyloid fibrils.

Rising rates of hospital admissions for atrial fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friberg, Jens; Buch, Nina Pernille Gardshodn; Scharling, Henrik

2003-01-01

Atrial fibrillation is a common arrhythmia associated with excess morbidity and mortality. We studied temporal changes in hospital admission rates for atrial fibrillation using data from a prospective population-based cohort study spanning 2 decades (the Copenhagen City Heart Study).......Atrial fibrillation is a common arrhythmia associated with excess morbidity and mortality. We studied temporal changes in hospital admission rates for atrial fibrillation using data from a prospective population-based cohort study spanning 2 decades (the Copenhagen City Heart Study)....

HYPERTHYROIDISM AND ATRIAL FIBRILLATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. M. Marusenko

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Review on a problem of the development of atrial fibrillation in patients with thyrotoxicosis is presented. Thyrotoxicosis is one of the most frequent endocrine diseases, conceding only to a diabetes mellitus. The most frequent reasons of hyperthyroidism are Graves’ disease and functional thyroid autonomy. The authors give an analysis of data on the cardiac effects of thyrotoxicosis, features of heart remodeling under the influence of thyroid hyperfunction, prevalence of atrial fibrillation in thyrotoxicosis, depending on age, as well as the possibility of restoring sinus rhythm in the combination of these diseases. Particular attention is paid to the effect on the heart of subclinical thyrotoxicosis, which is defined as a dysfunction of the thyroid gland, characterized by low serum concentration of thyrotropin, normal values of free thyroxine and free triiodothyronine. Subclinical hyperthyroidism is also capable of causing heart remodeling and diastolic dysfunction.Prevalence of thyrotoxicosis in elderly people is higher in areas of iodine deficiency; it is relevant for our country due to the large territory of iodine deficiency. In elderly patients, the cardiac effects of thyrotoxicosis prevail in the clinical picture, that makes it difficult to diagnose endocrine disorders, and correction of thyrotoxicosis is critically important for the successful control of the heart rhythm. The article also discusses the problem of thyrotoxic cardiomyopathy, caused by the toxic effect of excess thyroid hormones: features of this heart disorder, factors affecting its formation, clinical significance and contribution to the development of rhythm disturbances. The greatest significance is the development of atrial fibrillation as a result of thyrotox-icosis in older patients who already have various cardiovascular diseases.Atrial fibrillation is the most frequent heart rhythm disorder in thyrotoxicosis. The main cause of arrhythmia in hyperthyroidism is the

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

Age and sex as moderators of the placebo response – an evaluation of systematic reviews and meta-analyses across medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Weimer, Katja; Colloca, Luana; Enck, Paul

2015-01-01

Predictors of the placebo response (PR) in randomized controlled trials (RCT) have been searched for ever since RCT have become the standard for testing novel therapies and age and gender are routinely documented data in all trials irrespective of the drug tested, its indication, and the primary and secondary end points chosen. To evaluate whether age and gender have been found to be reliable predictors of the PR across medical subspecialties, we extracted 75 systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions performed in major medical areas (neurology, psychiatry, internal medicine) known for high PR rates. The literature database used contains approximately 2,500 papers on various aspects of the genuine PR. These ‘meta-analyses’ were screened for statistical predictors of the PR across multiple RCT, including age and gender, but also other patient-based and design-based predictors of higher PR rates. Retrieved papers were sorted for areas and disease categories. Only 15 of the 75 analyses noted an effect of younger age to be associated with higher PR, and this was predominantly in psychiatric conditions but not in depression, and internal medicine but not in gastroenterology. Female gender was associated with higher PR in only 3 analyses. Among the patient-based predictors, the most frequently noted factor was lower symptom severity at baseline, and among the design- based factors, it was a randomization ratio that selected more patients to drugs than to placebo, more frequent study visits, and more recent trials that were associated with higher PR rates. While younger age may contribute to the PR in some conditions, sex does not. There is currently no evidence that the PR is different in the elderly. PR are, however, markedly influenced by the symptom severity at baseline, and by the likelihood of receiving active treatment in placebo- controlled trials. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Alcohol Consumption as a Risk Factor for Acute and Chronic Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review and a Series of Meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Samokhvalov, Andriy V; Rehm, Jürgen; Roerecke, Michael

2015-12-01

Pancreatitis is a highly prevalent medical condition associated with a spectrum of endocrine and exocrine pancreatic insufficiencies. While high alcohol consumption is an established risk factor for pancreatitis, its relationship with specific types of pancreatitis and a potential threshold have not been systematically examined. We conducted a systematic literature search for studies on the association between alcohol consumption and pancreatitis based on PRISMA guidelines. Non-linear and linear random-effect dose-response meta-analyses using restricted cubic spline meta-regressions and categorical meta-analyses in relation to abstainers were conducted. Seven studies with 157,026 participants and 3618 cases of pancreatitis were included into analyses. The dose-response relationship between average volume of alcohol consumption and risk of pancreatitis was monotonic with no evidence of non-linearity for chronic pancreatitis (CP) for both sexes (p = 0.091) and acute pancreatitis (AP) in men (p = 0.396); it was non-linear for AP in women (p = 0.008). Compared to abstention, there was a significant decrease in risk (RR = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.60-0.97) of AP in women below the threshold of 40 g/day. No such association was found in men (RR = 1.1, 95%CI: 0.69-1.74). The RR for CP at 100 g/day was 6.29 (95%CI: 3.04-13.02). The dose-response relationships between alcohol consumption and risk of pancreatitis were monotonic for CP and AP in men, and non-linear for AP in women. Alcohol consumption below 40 g/day was associated with reduced risk of AP in women. Alcohol consumption beyond this level was increasingly detrimental for any type of pancreatitis. The work was financially supported by a grant from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (R21AA023521) to the last author.

First- and Second-level Bayesian Inference of Flow Resistivity of Sound Absorber and Room’s Influence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Choi, Sang-Hyeon; Lee, Ikjin; Jeong, Cheol-Ho

2016-01-01

Sabine absorption coefficient is a widely used one deduced from reverberation time measurements via the Sabine equation. First- and second-level Bayesian analysis are used to estimate the flow resistivity of a sound absorber and the influences of the test chambers from Sabine absorption...... coefficients measured in 13 different reverberation chambers. The first-level Bayesian analysis is more general than the second-level Bayesian analysis. Sharper posterior distribution can be acquired by the second-level Bayesian analysis than the one by the first-level Bayesian analysis because more data...... are used to set more reliable prior distribution. The estimated room’s influences by the first- and the second-level Bayesian analyses are similar to the estimated results by the mean absolute error minimization....

Lack of consensus on the role of endoscopic retrograde cholangiography in acute biliary pancreatitis in published meta-analyses and guidelines: a systematic review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Geenen, E.J.M. van; Santvoort, H.C. van; Besselink, M.G.; Peet, D.L. van der; Erpecum, K.J. van; Fockens, P.; Mulder, C.J.; Bruno, M.J.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Several randomized controlled trials studied the role of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreaticography (ERCP) and endoscopic sphincterotomy (ES) in acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP). No study assessed whether these trials resulted in international consensus in published meta-analyses

Lack of Consensus on the Role of Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiography in Acute Biliary Pancreatitis in Published Meta-Analyses and Guidelines A Systematic Review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Geenen, Erwin-Jan M.; van Santvoort, Hjalmar C.; Besselink, Marc G. H.; van der Peet, Donald L.; van Erpecum, Karel J.; Fockens, Paul; Mulder, Chris J. J.; Bruno, Marco J.

2013-01-01

Objectives: Several randomized controlled trials studied the role of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreaticography (ERCP) and endoscopic sphincterotomy (ES) in acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP). No study assessed whether these trials resulted in international consensus in published meta-analyses

Atrial Fibrillation and Hyperthyroidism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jayaprasad N

2005-10-01

Full Text Available Atrial fibrillation occurs in 10 – 15% of patients with hyperthyroidism. Low serum thyrotropin concentration is an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation. Thyroid hormone contributes to arrythmogenic activity by altering the electrophysiological characteristics of atrial myocytes by shortening the action potential duration, enhancing automaticity and triggered activity in the pulmonary vein cardio myocytes. Hyperthyroidism results in excess mortality from increased incidence of circulatory diseases and dysrhythmias. Incidence of cerebral embolism is more in hyperthyroid patients with atrial fibrillation, especially in the elderly and anti-coagulation is indicated in them. Treatment of hyperthyroidism results in conversion to sinus rhythm in up to two-third of patients. Beta-blockers reduce left ventricular hypertrophy and atrial and ventricular arrhythmias in patients with hyperthyroidism. Treatment of sub clinical hyperthyroidism is controversial. Optimizing dose of thyroxine treatment in those with replacement therapy and beta-blockers is useful in exogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism.

Core sequence of PAPf39 amyloid fibrils and mechanism of pH-dependent fibril formation: the role of monomer conformation.

Science.gov (United States)

French, Kinsley C; Makhatadze, George I

2012-12-21

PAPf39, a 39-residue peptide fragment from human prostatic acidic phosphatase, has been shown to form amyloid fibrils in semen (SEVI), which increase HIV infectivity by up to 5 orders of magnitude. The sequence of the PAPf39 fibrillar core was identified using hydrogen-deuterium exchange (HDX) mass spectrometry and protease protection assays. The central and C-terminal regions are highly protected from HDX and proteolytic cleavage and, thus, are part of the fibrillar core. Conversely, the N-terminal region is unprotected from HDX and proteolytic cleavage, suggesting that it is exposed and not part of the fibrillar core. This finding was tested using two N-terminal truncated variants, PAPf39Δ1-8 and PAPf39Δ1-13. Both variants formed amyloid fibrils at neutral pH. However, these variants showed a markedly different pH dependence of fibril formation versus that of PAPf39. PAPf39 fibrils can form at pH 7.7, but not at pH 5.5 or 2.5, while both N-terminally truncated variants can form fibrils at these pH values. Thus, the N-terminal region is not necessary for fibril formation but modulates the pH dependence of PAPf39 fibril formation. PAPf39Δ1-8 and PAPf39Δ1-13 are capable of seeding PAPf39 fibril formation at neutral pH, suggesting that these variants are structurally compatible with PAPf39, yet no mixed fibril formation occurs between the truncated variants and PAPf39 at low pH. This suggests that pH affects the PAPf39 monomer conformational ensemble, which is supported by far-UV circular dichroism spectroscopy. A conceptual model describing the pH dependence of PAPf39 aggregation is proposed and provides potential biological implications.

The limited informativeness of meta-analyses and media effects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Valkenburg, P.M.

2015-01-01

In this issue of Perspectives on Psychological Science, Christopher Ferguson reports on a meta-analysis examining the relationship between children’s video game use and several outcome variables, including aggression and attention deficit symptoms (Ferguson, 2015, this issue). In this commentary, I

How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

2013-01-01

Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

Meta-analyses of KIF6 Trp719Arg in coronary heart disease and statin therapeutic effect.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Peng

Full Text Available The goal of our study is to assess the contribution of KIF6 Trp719Arg to both the risk of CHD and the efficacy of statin therapy in CHD patients.Meta-analysis of 8 prospective studies among 77,400 Caucasians provides evidence that 719Arg increases the risk of CHD (P<0.001, HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.15-1.41. However, another meta-analysis of 7 case-control studies among 65,200 individuals fails to find a significant relationship between Trp719Arg and the risk of CHD (P = 0.642, OR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.95-1.08. This suggests that the contribution of Trp719Arg to CHD varies in different ethnic groups. Additional meta-analysis also shows that statin therapy only benefit the vascular patients carry 719Arg allele (P<0.001, relative ratio (RR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.54-0.67. To examine the role of this genetic variant in CHD risk in Han Chinese, we have conducted a case-control study with 289 CHD cases, 193 non-CHD controls, and 329 unrelated healthy volunteers as healthy controls. On post hoc analysis, significant allele frequency difference of 719Arg is observed between female CHD cases and female total controls under the dominant model (P = 0.04, χ(2 = 4.228, df = 1, odd ratio (OR = 1.979, 95% confidence interval (CI = 1.023-3.828. Similar trends are observed for post hoc analysis between female CHD cases and female healthy controls (dominant model: P = 0.04, χ(2 = 4.231, df = 1, OR = 2.015, 95% CI = 1.024-3.964. Non-genetic CHD risk factors are not controlled in these analyses.Our meta-analysis demonstrates the role of Trp719Arg of KIF6 gene in the risk of CHD in Caucasians. The meta-analysis also suggests the role of this variant in statin therapeutic response in vascular diseases. Our case-control study suggests that Trp719Arg of KIF6 gene is associated with CHD in female Han Chinese through a post hoc analysis.

The effects of rhythm control strategies versus rate control strategies for atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sethi, Naqash J; Feinberg, Joshua; Nielsen, Emil E

2017-01-01

-effect meta-analysis and chose the most conservative result as our primary result. We used Trial Sequential Analysis (TSA) to control for random errors. Statistical heterogeneity was assessed by visual inspection of forest plots and by calculating inconsistency (I2) for traditional meta-analyses and diversity...... (D2) for TSA. Sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the reasons for substantial statistical heterogeneity. We assessed the risk of publication bias in meta-analyses consisting of 10 trials or more with tests for funnel plot asymmetry. We used GRADE to assess the quality...... of the body of evidence. RESULTS: 25 randomized clinical trials (n = 9354 participants) were included, all of which were at high risk of bias. Meta-analysis showed that rhythm control strategies versus rate control strategies significantly increased the risk of a serious adverse event (risk ratio (RR), 1...

Immunotherapy in advanced melanoma: a network meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pyo, Jung-Soo; Kang, Guhyun

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare the effects of various immunotherapeutic agents and chemotherapy for unresected or metastatic melanomas. We performed a network meta-analysis using a Bayesian statistical model to compare objective response rate (ORR) of various immunotherapies from 12 randomized controlled studies. The estimated ORRs of immunotherapy and chemotherapy were 0.224 and 0.108, respectively. The ORRs of immunotherapy in untreated and pretreated patients were 0.279 and 0.176, respectively. In network meta-analysis, the odds ratios for ORR of nivolumab (1 mg/kg)/ipilmumab (3 mg/kg), pembrolizumab 10 mg/kg and nivolumab 3 mg/kg were 8.54, 5.39 and 4.35, respectively, compared with chemotherapy alone. Our data showed that various immunotherapies had higher ORRs rather than chemotherapy alone.

Ultrafast Hydrogen-Bonding Dynamics in Amyloid Fibrils.

Science.gov (United States)

Pazos, Ileana M; Ma, Jianqiang; Mukherjee, Debopreeti; Gai, Feng

2018-06-08

While there are many studies on the subject of hydrogen bonding dynamics in biological systems, few, if any, have investigated this fundamental process in amyloid fibrils. Herein, we seek to add insight into this topic by assessing the dynamics of a hydrogen bond buried in the dry interface of amyloid fibrils. To prepare a suitable model peptide system for this purpose, we introduce two mutations into the amyloid-forming Aβ(16-22) peptide. The first one is a lysine analog at position 19, which is used to help form structurally homogeneous fibrils, and the second one is an aspartic acid derivative (DM) at position 17, which is intended (1) to be used as a site-specific infrared probe and (2) to serve as a hydrogen-bond acceptor to lysine so that an inter-β-sheet hydrogen bond can be formed in the fibrils. Using both infrared spectroscopy and atomic force microscopy, we show that (1) this mutant peptide indeed forms well defined fibrils, (2) when bulk solvent is removed, there is no detectable water present in the fibrils, (3) infrared results obtained with the DM probe are consistent with a protofibril structure that is composed of two antiparallel β-sheets stacked in a parallel fashion, leading to formation of the expected hydrogen bond. Using two-dimensional infrared spectroscopy, we further show that the dynamics of this hydrogen bond occur on a timescale of ~2.3 ps, which is attributed to the rapid rotation of the -NH3+ group of lysine around its Cε-Nζ bond. Taken together, these results suggest that (1) DM is a useful infrared marker in facilitating structure determination of amyloid fibrils and (2) even in the tightly packed core of amyloid fibrils certain amino acid sidechains can undergo ultrafast motions, hence contributing to the thermodynamic stability of the system.

Systematic review and meta-analysis in cardiac surgery: a primer.

Science.gov (United States)

Yanagawa, Bobby; Tam, Derrick Y; Mazine, Amine; Tricco, Andrea C

2018-03-01

The purpose of this article is to review the strengths and weaknesses of systematic reviews and meta-analyses to inform our current understanding of cardiac surgery. A systematic review and meta-analysis of a focused topic can provide a quantitative estimate for the effect of a treatment intervention or exposure. In cardiac surgery, observational studies and small, single-center prospective trials provide most of the clinical outcomes that form the evidence base for patient management and guideline recommendations. As such, meta-analyses can be particularly valuable in synthesizing the literature for a particular focused surgical question. Since the year 2000, there are over 800 meta-analysis-related publications in our field. There are some limitations to this technique, including clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity, among other challenges. Despite these caveats, results of meta-analyses have been useful in forming treatment recommendations or in providing guidance in the design of future clinical trials. There is a growing number of meta-analyses in the field of cardiac surgery. Knowledge translation via meta-analyses will continue to guide and inform cardiac surgical practice and our practice guidelines.

Embolic Risk in Atrial Fibrillation that Arises from Hyperthyroidism

Science.gov (United States)

Traube, Elie; Coplan, Neil L.

2011-01-01

Atrial fibrillation, the most common cardiac complication of hyperthyroidism, occurs in an estimated 10% to 25% of overtly hyperthyroid patients. The prevalence of atrial fibrillation increases with age in the general population and in thyrotoxic patients. Other risk factors for atrial fibrillation in thyrotoxic patients include male sex, ischemic or valvular heart disease, and congestive heart failure. The incidence of arterial embolism or stroke in thyrotoxic atrial fibrillation is less clear. There are many reports of arterial thromboembolism associated with hyperthyroidism, including cases of young adults without coexisting risk factors other than thyrotoxic atrial fibrillation. The use of anticoagulative agents to prevent thromboembolic sequelae of thyrotoxic atrial fibrillation is controversial: national organizations provide conflicting recommendations in their practice guidelines. Herein, we review the medical literature and examine the evidence behind the recommendations in order to determine the best approach to thromboembolic prophylaxis in patients who have atrial fibrillation that is associated with hyperthyroidism. PMID:21720457

Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Leeftijd, het psychologisch contract en werkattitudes: een meta-analyse

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bal, P. Matthijs; Lange, A.H. de; Jansen, P.G.W.; Velde, M.E.G. van der

2010-01-01

The meta-analysis investigated the relations between age and psychological contracts. It was expected that age would be positively related to the employer obligations, and that age would moderate the relations between contract breach and job attitudes. The hypotheses were tested by means of a

Atrial fibrillation

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ABEOLUGBENGAS

Mean blood pressures were 126.03± ... optimal. Keywords: Atrial fibrillation, thrombosis, CHADS2 Score, stroke risk, hypertensive heart disease, ... general population and the average age group ... Appendix 1) to stratify the stroke risk and we.

Collagen Fibrils: Nature's Highly Tunable Nonlinear Springs.

Science.gov (United States)

Andriotis, Orestis G; Desissaire, Sylvia; Thurner, Philipp J

2018-03-21

Tissue hydration is well known to influence tissue mechanics and can be tuned via osmotic pressure. Collagen fibrils are nature's nanoscale building blocks to achieve biomechanical function in a broad range of biological tissues and across many species. Intrafibrillar covalent cross-links have long been thought to play a pivotal role in collagen fibril elasticity, but predominantly at large, far from physiological, strains. Performing nanotensile experiments of collagen fibrils at varying hydration levels by adjusting osmotic pressure in situ during atomic force microscopy experiments, we show the power the intrafibrillar noncovalent interactions have for defining collagen fibril tensile elasticity at low fibril strains. Nanomechanical tensile tests reveal that osmotic pressure increases collagen fibril stiffness up to 24-fold in transverse (nanoindentation) and up to 6-fold in the longitudinal direction (tension), compared to physiological saline in a reversible fashion. We attribute the stiffening to the density and strength of weak intermolecular forces tuned by hydration and hence collagen packing density. This reversible mechanism may be employed by cells to alter their mechanical microenvironment in a reversible manner. The mechanism could also be translated to tissue engineering approaches for customizing scaffold mechanics in spatially resolved fashion, and it may help explain local mechanical changes during development of diseases and inflammation.

Online open neuroimaging mass meta-analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Finn Årup; Kempton, Matthew J.; Williams, Steven C. R.

We describe a system for meta-analysis where a wiki stores numerical data in a simple format and a web service performs the numerical computation. We initially apply the system on multiple meta-analyses of structural neuroimaging data results. The described system allows for mass meta-analysis, e...

Development of a combined database for meta-epidemiological research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Savović, Jelena; Harris, Ross J; Wood, Lesley

2010-01-01

or review. Unique identifiers were assigned to each reference and used to identify duplicate trials. Sets of meta-analyses with overlapping trials were identified and duplicates removed. Overlapping trials were used to examine agreement between assessments of trial characteristics. The combined database...... database will be used to examine the combined evidence on sources of bias in randomized controlled trials. The strategy used to remove overlap between meta-analyses may be of use for future empirical research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.......Collections of meta-analyses assembled in meta-epidemiological studies are used to study associations of trial characteristics with intervention effect estimates. However, methods and findings are not consistent across studies. To combine data from 10 meta-epidemiological studies into a single...

Kinetically controlled thermal response of beta2-microglobulin amyloid fibrils.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasahara, Kenji; Naiki, Hironobu; Goto, Yuji

2005-09-23

Calorimetric measurements were carried out using a differential scanning calorimeter in the temperature range from 10 to 120 degrees C for characterizing the thermal response of beta2-microglobulin amyloid fibrils. The thermograms of amyloid fibril solution showed a remarkably large decrease in heat capacity that was essentially released upon the thermal unfolding of the fibrils, in which the magnitude of negative heat capacity change was not explicable in terms of the current accessible surface area model of protein structural thermodynamics. The heat capacity-temperature curve of amyloid fibrils prior to the fibril unfolding exhibited an unusual dependence on the fibril concentration and the heating rate. Particularly, the heat needed to induce the thermal response was found to be linearly dependent on the heating rate, indicating that its thermal response is under a kinetic control and precluding the interpretation in terms of equilibrium thermodynamics. Furthermore, amyloid fibrils of amyloid beta peptides also exhibited a heating rate-dependent exothermic process before the fibril unfolding, indicating that the kinetically controlled thermal response may be a common phenomenon to amyloid fibrils. We suggest that the heating rate-dependent negative change in heat capacity is coupled to the association of amyloid fibrils with characteristic hydration pattern.

Normal and reversed supramolecular chirality of insulin fibrils probed by vibrational circular dichroism at the protofilament level of fibril structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurouski, Dmitry; Dukor, Rina K; Lu, Xuefang; Nafie, Laurence A; Lednev, Igor K

2012-08-08

Fibrils are β-sheet-rich aggregates that are generally composed of several protofibrils and may adopt variable morphologies, such as twisted ribbons or flat-like sheets. This polymorphism is observed for many different amyloid associated proteins and polypeptides. In a previous study we proposed the existence of another level of amyloid polymorphism, namely, that associated with fibril supramolecular chirality. Two chiral polymorphs of insulin, which can be controllably grown by means of small pH variations, exhibit opposite signs of vibrational circular dichroism (VCD) spectra. Herein, using atomic force microscopy (AFM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), we demonstrate that indeed VCD supramolecular chirality is correlated not only by the apparent fibril handedness but also by the sense of supramolecular chirality from a deeper level of chiral organization at the protofilament level of fibril structure. Our microscopic examination indicates that normal VCD fibrils have a left-handed twist, whereas reversed VCD fibrils are flat-like aggregates with no obvious helical twist as imaged by atomic force microscopy or scanning electron microscopy. A scheme is proposed consistent with observed data that features a dynamic equilibrium controlled by pH at the protofilament level between left- and right-twist fibril structures with distinctly different aggregation pathways for left- and right-twisted protofilaments. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials on risk of myocardial infarction from the use of oral direct thrombin inhibitors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Artang, Ramin; Rome, Eric; Nielsen, Jørn Dalsgaard

2013-01-01

. To address these questions, we systematically searched MEDLINE and performed a meta-analysis on randomized trials that compared oral DTIs with warfarin for any indication with end point of MIs after randomization. We furthermore performed a secondary meta-analysis on atrial fibrillation stroke prevention...... to experience an MI than their counterparts treated with warfarin (285 of 23,333 vs 133 of 16,024, odds ratio 1.35, 95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.66, p = 0.005). For secondary analysis, 8 studies (69,615 patients) were identified that compared warfarin with alternative anticoagulant including factor Xa...

[Relations between FANS, PPI and atrial fibrillation].

Science.gov (United States)

Ricci, Fabrizio; De Caterina, Raffaele

2013-05-01

Recent evidence supports the existence of an association between the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and the risk of atrial fibrillation. Anti-inflammatory drugs are widely used for the treatment of systemic inflammatory disorders, and chronic inflammation is a well-known risk factor for the development of myocardial fibrosis. The latter accounts for atrial inhomogeneities of conduction, thus triggering and perpetuating atrial fibrillation. Atrial inflammatory remodeling may therefore be responsible for the higher incidence of atrial fibrillation among patients assuming steroidal and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs because of an underlying inflammatory disorders. Alternative theories contemplate gastroesophageal reflux, which is extremely common during the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and may trigger atrial fibrillation, as mediating the above-mentioned association.

Agreement between the results of meta-analyses from case reports and from clinical studies regarding the efficacy of laronidase therapy in patients with mucopolysaccharidosis type I who initiated enzyme replacement therapy in adult age: An example of case reports meta-analyses as an useful tool for evidence-based medicine in rare diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Sampayo-Cordero, Miguel; Miguel-Huguet, Bernat; Pardo-Mateos, Almudena; Moltó-Abad, Marc; Muñoz-Delgado, Cecilia; Pérez-López, Jordi

2018-02-01

Case reports might have a prominent role in the rare diseases field, due to the small number of patients affected by one such disease. A previous systematic review regarding the efficacy of laronidase therapy in patients with mucopolysaccharidosis type I (MPS-I) who initiated enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) in adult age has been published. The review included a meta-analysis of 19 clinical studies and the description of eleven case reports. It was of interest to perform a meta-analysis of those case reports to explore the role of such meta-analyses as a tool for evidence-based medicine in rare diseases. The study included all case reports with standard treatment regimen. Primary analysis was the percentage of case reports showing an improvement in a specific outcome. Only when that percentage was statistically higher than 5%, the improvement was confirmed as such. The outcomes that accomplished this criterion were ranked and compared to the GRADE criteria obtained by those same outcomes in the previous meta-analysis of clinical studies. There were three outcomes that had a significant improvement: Urine glycosaminoglycans, liver volume and 6-minute walking test. Positive and negative predictive values, sensitivity and specificity for the results of the meta-analysis of case reports as compared to that of clinical studies were 100%, 88.9%, 75% and 100%, respectively. Accordingly, absolute (Rho=0.82, 95%CI: 0.47 to 0.95) and relative agreement (Kappa=0.79, 95%CI: 0.593 to 0.99) between the number of case reports with improvement in a specific outcome and the GRADE evidence score for that outcome were good. Sensitivity analysis showed that agreement between the meta-analysis of case reports and that of the clinical studies were good only when using a strong confirmatory strategy for outcome improvement in case reports. We found an agreement between the results of meta-analyses from case reports and from clinical studies in the efficacy of laronidase therapy in

The effect of grinding on the mechanical behavior of Y-TZP ceramics: A systematic review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, G K R; Fraga, S; Montagner, A F; Soares, F Z M; Kleverlaan, C J; Valandro, L F

2016-10-01

The aim of this study was to systematically review the literature to assess the effect of grinding on the mechanical properties, structural stability and superficial characteristics of Y-TZP ceramics. The MEDLINE via PubMed and Web of Science (ISI - Web of Knowledge) electronic databases were searched with included peer-reviewed publications in English language and with no publication year limit. From 342 potentially eligible studies, 73 were selected for full-text analysis, 30 were included in the systematic review with 20 considered in the meta-analysis. Two reviewers independently selected the studies, extracted the data, and assessed the risk of bias. Statistical analyses were performed using RevMan 5.1, with random effects model, at a significance level of 0.05. A descriptive analysis considering phase transformation, Y-TZP grain size, Vickers hardness, residual stress and aging of all included studies were executed. Four outcomes were considered in the meta-analyses (factor: grinding x as-sintered) in global and subgroups analyses (grinding tool, grit-size and cooling) for flexural strength and roughness (Ra) data. A significant difference (pgrinding; subgroup analyses revealed that different parameters also lead to different effects on roughness. High heterogeneity was found in some comparisons. Generally grinding promotes decrease in strength and increase in roughness of Y-TZP ceramics. However, the use of a grinding tool that allows greater accuracy of the movement (i.e. contra angle hand-pieces coupled to slowspeed turbines), small grit size (<50μm) and the use of plenty coolant seem to be the main factors to decrease the defect introduction and allow the occurrence of the toughening transformation mechanism, decreasing the risk of deleterious impact on Y-TZP mechanical properties. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preparation of Amyloid Fibrils Seeded from Brain and Meninges.

Science.gov (United States)

Scherpelz, Kathryn P; Lu, Jun-Xia; Tycko, Robert; Meredith, Stephen C

2016-01-01

Seeding of amyloid fibrils into fresh solutions of the same peptide or protein in disaggregated form leads to the formation of replicate fibrils, with close structural similarity or identity to the original fibrillar seeds. Here we describe procedures for isolating fibrils composed mainly of β-amyloid (Aβ) from human brain and from leptomeninges, a source of cerebral blood vessels, for investigating Alzheimer's disease and cerebral amyloid angiopathy. We also describe methods for seeding isotopically labeled, disaggregated Aβ peptide solutions for study using solid-state NMR and other techniques. These methods should be applicable to other types of amyloid fibrils, to Aβ fibrils from mice or other species, tissues other than brain, and to some non-fibrillar aggregates. These procedures allow for the examination of authentic amyloid fibrils and other protein aggregates from biological tissues without the need for labeling the tissue.

Bayesian methods for data analysis

CERN Document Server

Carlin, Bradley P.

2009-01-01

Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

STRUCTURE OF RUSSIAN PUBLICATIONS IN CLINICAL IMMUNOLOGY AND ALLERGOLOGY (JOURNAL ARTICLES, CLINICAL TRIALS, META-ANALYSES AND PRACTICE GUIDELINES IN COMPARISON WITH OTHER BRICS COUNTRIES IN 2008-2015

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. I. Lugacheva

2018-01-01

Full Text Available It is obvious that any evolving scientific medical field is a dynamic system that cannot stay at the stage of accumulation of primary information, and inevitably goes to the stages of clinical trials, generalization of information in meta-analyses and completes the study by creation of practical guidelines. The purpose of this study was a quantitative analysis of publicly available data in the field of clinical immunology in Russia during 2008-2015, identifying the ratios of clinical trials, meta-analyses, and practical guidelines, as well as evaluating the results by comparison with other BRICS countries. Study design was performed by retrospective bibliometric methods. It is revealed, that, in Russia, 16 clinical trials, 3 meta-analyses and 1 practice guideline were issued per 1000 original journal articles. Accordingly in the People’s Republic of China this ratios have made 34/25/4; in Federal Republic of Brazil, 42/87/7; in Republic of India, 76/58/34, and in Republic of Southern Africa, 134/43/36. Moreover, we have obtained evidence which suggests optimistic prospectives for scientific clinical immunology in Russia. 

Diagnostic accuracy and utility of coronary CT angiography with consideration of unevaluable results: A systematic review and multivariate Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis with intention to diagnose

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Menke, Jan [University Medical Center Goettingen, Institute for Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Goettingen (Germany); Kowalski, Joerg [Dr. Lauterbach-Klinik, Department of Cardiology, Bad Liebenstein (Germany)

2016-02-15

To meta-analyze diagnostic accuracy, test yield and utility of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in coronary artery disease (CAD) by an intention-to-diagnose approach with inclusion of unevaluable results. Four databases were searched from 1/2005 to 3/2013 for prospective studies that used 16-320-row or dual-source CTs and provided 3 x 2 patient-level data of CCTA (positive, negative, or unevaluable) versus catheter angiography (positive or negative) for diagnosing ≥50 % coronary stenoses. A Bayesian multivariate 3 x 2 random-effects meta-analysis considered unevaluable CCTAs. Thirty studies (3422 patients) were included. Compared to 16-40 row CT, test yield and accuracy of CCTA has significantly increased with ≥64-row CT (P < 0.05). In ≥64-row CT, about 2.5 % (95 %-CI, 0.9-4.8 %) of diseased patients and 7.5 % (4.5-11.2 %) of non-diseased patients had unevaluable CCTAs. A positive likelihood ratio of 8.9 (6.1-13.5) indicated moderate suitability for identifying CAD. A negative likelihood ratio of 0.022 (0.01-0.04) indicated excellent suitability for excluding CAD. Unevaluable CCTAs had an equivocal likelihood ratio of 0.42 (0.22-0.71). In the utility analysis, CCTA was useful at intermediate pre-test probabilities (16-70 %). CCTA is useful at intermediate CAD pre-test probabilities. Positive CCTAs require verification to confirm CAD, unevaluable CCTAs require alternative diagnostics, and negative CCTAs exclude obstructive CAD with high certainty. (orig.)

Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis with the R package BCEA

CERN Document Server

Baio, Gianluca; Heath, Anna

2017-01-01

The book provides a description of the process of health economic evaluation and modelling for cost-effectiveness analysis, particularly from the perspective of a Bayesian statistical approach. Some relevant theory and introductory concepts are presented using practical examples and two running case studies. The book also describes in detail how to perform health economic evaluations using the R package BCEA (Bayesian Cost-Effectiveness Analysis). BCEA can be used to post-process the results of a Bayesian cost-effectiveness model and perform advanced analyses producing standardised and highly customisable outputs. It presents all the features of the package, including its many functions and their practical application, as well as its user-friendly web interface. The book is a valuable resource for statisticians and practitioners working in the field of health economics wanting to simplify and standardise their workflow, for example in the preparation of dossiers in support of marketing authorisation, or acade...

How Glycosaminoglycans Promote Fibrillation of Salmon Calcitonin*

Science.gov (United States)

Malmos, Kirsten Gade; Bjerring, Morten; Jessen, Christian Moestrup; Nielsen, Erik Holm Toustrup; Poulsen, Ebbe T.; Christiansen, Gunna; Vosegaard, Thomas; Skrydstrup, Troels; Enghild, Jan J.; Pedersen, Jan Skov; Otzen, Daniel E.

2016-01-01

Glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) bind all known amyloid plaques and help store protein hormones in (acidic) granular vesicles, but the molecular mechanisms underlying these important effects are unclear. Here we investigate GAG interactions with the peptide hormone salmon calcitonin (sCT). GAGs induce fast sCT fibrillation at acidic pH and only bind monomeric sCT at acidic pH, inducing sCT helicity. Increasing GAG sulfation expands the pH range for binding. Heparin, the most highly sulfated GAG, binds sCT in the pH interval 3–7. Small angle x-ray scattering indicates that sCT monomers densely decorate and pack single heparin chains, possibly via hydrophobic patches on helical sCT. sCT fibrillates without GAGs, but heparin binding accelerates the process by decreasing the otherwise long fibrillation lag times at low pH and accelerates fibril growth rates at neutral pH. sCT·heparin complexes form β-sheet-rich heparin-covered fibrils. Solid-state NMR reveals that heparin does not alter the sCT fibrillary core around Lys11 but makes changes to Val8 on the exterior side of the β-strand, possibly through contacts to Lys18. Thus GAGs significantly modulate sCT fibrillation in a pH-dependent manner by interacting with both monomeric and aggregated sCT. PMID:27281819

Cryoballoon Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason G. Andrade, MD

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Focal point-by-point radiofrequency catheter ablation has shown considerable success in the treatment of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. However, it is not without limitations. Recent clinical and preclinical studies have demonstrated that cryothermal ablation using a balloon catheter (Artic Front©, Medtronic CryoCath LP provides an effective alternative strategy to treating atrial fibrillation. The objective of this article is to review efficacy and safety data surrounding cryoballoon ablation for paroxysmal and persistent atrial fibrillation. In addition, a practical step-by-step approach to cryoballoon ablation is presented, while highlighting relevant literature regarding: 1 the rationale for adjunctive imaging, 2 selection of an appropriate cryoballoon size, 3 predictors of efficacy, 4 advanced trouble-shooting techniques, and 5 strategies to reduce procedural complications, such as phrenic nerve palsy.

Fibril assembly in whey protein mixtures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bolder, S.G.

2007-01-01

The objective of this thesis was to study fibril assembly in mixtures of whey proteins. The effect of the composition of the protein mixture on the structures and the resulting phase behaviour was investigated. The current work has shown that beta-lactoglobulin is responsible for the fibril assembly

Visible learning a synthesis of over 800 meta-analyses relating to achievement

CERN Document Server

Hattie, John A C

2009-01-01

This unique and ground-breaking book is the result of 15 years research and synthesises over 800 meta-analyses on the influences on achievement in school-aged students. It builds a story about the power of teachers, feedback, and a model of learning and understanding. The research involves many millions of students and represents the largest ever evidence based research into what actually works in schools to improve learning. Areas covered include the influence of the student, home, school, curricula, teacher, and teaching strategies. A model of teaching and learning is developed based on the notion of visible teaching and visible learning. A major message is that what works best for students is similar to what works best for teachers - an attention to setting challenging learning intentions, being clear about what success means, and an attention to learning strategies for developing conceptual understanding about what teachers and students know and understand. Although the current evidence based fad has turn...

Sequence dependent aggregation of peptides and fibril formation

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Hung, Nguyen Ba; Le, Duy-Manh; Hoang, Trinh X.

2017-09-01

Deciphering the links between amino acid sequence and amyloid fibril formation is key for understanding protein misfolding diseases. Here we use Monte Carlo simulations to study the aggregation of short peptides in a coarse-grained model with hydrophobic-polar (HP) amino acid sequences and correlated side chain orientations for hydrophobic contacts. A significant heterogeneity is observed in the aggregate structures and in the thermodynamics of aggregation for systems of different HP sequences and different numbers of peptides. Fibril-like ordered aggregates are found for several sequences that contain the common HPH pattern, while other sequences may form helix bundles or disordered aggregates. A wide variation of the aggregation transition temperatures among sequences, even among those of the same hydrophobic fraction, indicates that not all sequences undergo aggregation at a presumable physiological temperature. The transition is found to be the most cooperative for sequences forming fibril-like structures. For a fibril-prone sequence, it is shown that fibril formation follows the nucleation and growth mechanism. Interestingly, a binary mixture of peptides of an aggregation-prone and a non-aggregation-prone sequence shows the association and conversion of the latter to the fibrillar structure. Our study highlights the role of a sequence in selecting fibril-like aggregates and also the impact of a structural template on fibril formation by peptides of unrelated sequences.

Treatment strategies for coronary in-stent restenosis: systematic review and hierarchical Bayesian network meta-analysis of 24 randomised trials and 4880 patients

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Giacoppo, Daniele; Gargiulo, Giuseppe; Aruta, Patrizia; Capranzano, Piera; Tamburino, Corrado

2015-01-01

Study question What is the most safe and effective interventional treatment for coronary in-stent restenosis? Methods In a hierarchical Bayesian network meta-analysis, PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and major scientific websites were screened up to 10 August 2015. Randomised controlled trials of patients with any type of coronary in-stent restenosis (either of bare metal stents or drug eluting stents; and either first or recurrent instances) were included. Trials including multiple treatments at the same time in the same group or comparing variants of the same intervention were excluded. Primary endpoints were target lesion revascularisation and late lumen loss, both at six to 12 months. The main analysis was complemented by network subanalyses, standard pairwise comparisons, and subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Study answer and limitations Twenty four trials (4880 patients), including seven interventional treatments, were identified. Compared with plain balloons, bare metal stents, brachytherapy, rotational atherectomy, and cutting balloons, drug coated balloons and drug eluting stents were associated with a reduced risk of target lesion revascularisation and major adverse cardiac events, and with reduced late lumen loss. Treatment ranking indicated that drug eluting stents had the highest probability (61.4%) of being the most effective for target lesion vascularisation; drug coated balloons were similarly indicated as the most effective treatment for late lumen loss (probability 70.3%). The comparative efficacy of drug coated balloons and drug eluting stents was similar for target lesion revascularisation (summary odds ratio 1.10, 95% credible interval 0.59 to 2.01) and late lumen loss reduction (mean difference in minimum lumen diameter 0.04 mm, 95% credible interval −0.20 to 0.10). Risks of death, myocardial infarction, and stent thrombosis were comparable across all treatments, but these analyses were limited by a

The pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children and adolescents: A systematic review with network meta-analyses of randomised trials.

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Ferrán Catalá-López

Full Text Available Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD is one of the most commonly diagnosed psychiatric disorders in childhood. A wide variety of treatments have been used for the management of ADHD. We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of pharmacological, psychological and complementary and alternative medicine interventions for the treatment of ADHD in children and adolescents.We performed a systematic review with network meta-analyses. Randomised controlled trials (≥ 3 weeks follow-up were identified from published and unpublished sources through searches in PubMed and the Cochrane Library (up to April 7, 2016. Interventions of interest were pharmacological (stimulants, non-stimulants, antidepressants, antipsychotics, and other unlicensed drugs, psychological (behavioural, cognitive training and neurofeedback and complementary and alternative medicine (dietary therapy, fatty acids, amino acids, minerals, herbal therapy, homeopathy, and physical activity. The primary outcomes were efficacy (treatment response and acceptability (all-cause discontinuation. Secondary outcomes included discontinuation due to adverse events (tolerability, as well as serious adverse events and specific adverse events. Random-effects Bayesian network meta-analyses were conducted to obtain estimates as odds ratios (ORs with 95% credibility intervals. We analysed interventions by class and individually. 190 randomised trials (52 different interventions grouped in 32 therapeutic classes that enrolled 26114 participants with ADHD were included in complex networks. At the class level, behavioural therapy (alone or in combination with stimulants, stimulants, and non-stimulant seemed significantly more efficacious than placebo. Behavioural therapy in combination with stimulants seemed superior to stimulants or non-stimulants. Stimulants seemed superior to behavioural therapy, cognitive training and non-stimulants. Behavioural therapy, stimulants and their combination

Light Chain Amyloid Fibrils Cause Metabolic Dysfunction in Human Cardiomyocytes.

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Helen P McWilliams-Koeppen

Full Text Available Light chain (AL amyloidosis is the most common form of systemic amyloid disease, and cardiomyopathy is a dire consequence, resulting in an extremely poor prognosis. AL is characterized by the production of monoclonal free light chains that deposit as amyloid fibrils principally in the heart, liver, and kidneys causing organ dysfunction. We have studied the effects of amyloid fibrils, produced from recombinant λ6 light chain variable domains, on metabolic activity of human cardiomyocytes. The data indicate that fibrils at 0.1 μM, but not monomer, significantly decrease the enzymatic activity of cellular NAD(PH-dependent oxidoreductase, without causing significant cell death. The presence of amyloid fibrils did not affect ATP levels; however, oxygen consumption was increased and reactive oxygen species were detected. Confocal fluorescence microscopy showed that fibrils bound to and remained at the cell surface with little fibril internalization. These data indicate that AL amyloid fibrils severely impair cardiomyocyte metabolism in a dose dependent manner. These data suggest that effective therapeutic intervention for these patients should include methods for removing potentially toxic amyloid fibrils.

Introduction, comparison, and validation of Meta-Essentials: A free and simple tool for meta-analysis.

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Suurmond, Robert; van Rhee, Henk; Hak, Tony

2017-12-01

We present a new tool for meta-analysis, Meta-Essentials, which is free of charge and easy to use. In this paper, we introduce the tool and compare its features to other tools for meta-analysis. We also provide detailed information on the validation of the tool. Although free of charge and simple, Meta-Essentials automatically calculates effect sizes from a wide range of statistics and can be used for a wide range of meta-analysis applications, including subgroup analysis, moderator analysis, and publication bias analyses. The confidence interval of the overall effect is automatically based on the Knapp-Hartung adjustment of the DerSimonian-Laird estimator. However, more advanced meta-analysis methods such as meta-analytical structural equation modelling and meta-regression with multiple covariates are not available. In summary, Meta-Essentials may prove a valuable resource for meta-analysts, including researchers, teachers, and students. © 2017 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms

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Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman

2015-05-01

The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of

Bayesian benefits with JASP

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2017-01-01

We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian

Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

CERN Document Server

Ntzoufras, Ioannis

2009-01-01

A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

Rethinking Meta-Analysis: Applications for Air Pollution Data and Beyond

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Goodman, Julie E; Petito Boyce, Catherine; Sax, Sonja N; Beyer, Leslie A; Prueitt, Robyn L

2015-01-01

Meta-analyses offer a rigorous and transparent systematic framework for synthesizing data that can be used for a wide range of research areas, study designs, and data types. Both the outcome of meta-analyses and the meta-analysis process itself can yield useful insights for answering scientific questions and making policy decisions. Development of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards illustrates many potential applications of meta-analysis. These applications demonstrate the strengths and limitations of meta-analysis, issues that arise in various data realms, how meta-analysis design choices can influence interpretation of results, and how meta-analysis can be used to address bias and heterogeneity. Reviewing available data from a meta-analysis perspective can provide a useful framework and impetus for identifying and refining strategies for future research. Moreover, increased pervasiveness of a meta-analysis mindset—focusing on how the pieces of the research puzzle fit together—would benefit scientific research and data syntheses regardless of whether or not a quantitative meta-analysis is undertaken. While an individual meta-analysis can only synthesize studies addressing the same research question, the results of separate meta-analyses can be combined to address a question encompassing multiple data types. This observation applies to any scientific or policy area where information from a variety of disciplines must be considered to address a broader research question. PMID:25969128

Evidence from Meta-Analyses of the Facial Width-to-Height Ratio as an Evolved Cue of Threat.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shawn N Geniole

Full Text Available The facial width-to-height ratio (FWHR is the width of the face divided by the height of the upper face. There is mixed evidence for the hypothesis that the FWHR is a cue of threat and dominance in the human face. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analyses of all peer-reviewed studies (and 2 unpublished studies to estimate the magnitude of the sex difference in the FWHR, and the magnitude of the relationship between the FWHR and threatening and dominant behaviours and perceptions. Studies were eligible for inclusion if the authors reported an analysis involving the FWHR. Our analyses revealed that the FWHR was larger in men than in women (d = .11, n = 10,853, cued judgements of masculinity in men (r = .35, n of faces = 487; n of observers = 339, and was related to body mass index (r = .31, n = 2,506. Further, the FWHR predicted both threat behaviour in men (r = .16, n = 4,603 and dominance behaviour in both sexes (r = .12, n = 948 across a variety of indices. Individuals with larger FWHRs were judged by observers as more threatening (r = .46, n of faces = 1,691; n of observers = 2,076 and more dominant (r = .20, n of faces = 603; n of observers = 236 than those with smaller FWHRs. Individuals with larger FWHRs were also judged as less attractive (r = -.26, n of faces = 721; n of observers = 335, especially when women made the judgements. These findings provide some support for the hypothesis that the FWHR is part of an evolved cueing system of intra-sexual threat and dominance in men. A limitation of the meta-analyses on perceptions of threat and dominance were the low number of stimuli involving female and older adult faces.

Maternal Colonization With Group B Streptococcus and Serotype Distribution Worldwide: Systematic Review and Meta-analyses.

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Russell, Neal J; Seale, Anna C; O'Driscoll, Megan; O'Sullivan, Catherine; Bianchi-Jassir, Fiorella; Gonzalez-Guarin, Juan; Lawn, Joy E; Baker, Carol J; Bartlett, Linda; Cutland, Clare; Gravett, Michael G; Heath, Paul T; Le Doare, Kirsty; Madhi, Shabir A; Rubens, Craig E; Schrag, Stephanie; Sobanjo-Ter Meulen, Ajoke; Vekemans, Johan; Saha, Samir K; Ip, Margaret

2017-11-06

Maternal rectovaginal colonization with group B Streptococcus (GBS) is the most common pathway for GBS disease in mother, fetus, and newborn. This article, the second in a series estimating the burden of GBS, aims to determine the prevalence and serotype distribution of GBS colonizing pregnant women worldwide. We conducted systematic literature reviews (PubMed/Medline, Embase, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature [LILACS], World Health Organization Library Information System [WHOLIS], and Scopus), organized Chinese language searches, and sought unpublished data from investigator groups. We applied broad inclusion criteria to maximize data inputs, particularly from low- and middle-income contexts, and then applied new meta-analyses to adjust for studies with less-sensitive sampling and laboratory techniques. We undertook meta-analyses to derive pooled estimates of maternal GBS colonization prevalence at national and regional levels. The dataset regarding colonization included 390 articles, 85 countries, and a total of 299924 pregnant women. Our adjusted estimate for maternal GBS colonization worldwide was 18% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17%-19%), with regional variation (11%-35%), and lower prevalence in Southern Asia (12.5% [95% CI, 10%-15%]) and Eastern Asia (11% [95% CI, 10%-12%]). Bacterial serotypes I-V account for 98% of identified colonizing GBS isolates worldwide. Serotype III, associated with invasive disease, accounts for 25% (95% CI, 23%-28%), but is less frequent in some South American and Asian countries. Serotypes VI-IX are more common in Asia. GBS colonizes pregnant women worldwide, but prevalence and serotype distribution vary, even after adjusting for laboratory methods. Lower GBS maternal colonization prevalence, with less serotype III, may help to explain lower GBS disease incidence in regions such as Asia. High prevalence worldwide, and more serotype data, are relevant to prevention efforts. © The Author 2017. Published by

Systematic review and meta-analyses of tranexamic acid use for bleeding reduction in prostate surgery.

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Longo, Marcelo A; Cavalheiro, Bárbara T; de Oliveira Filho, Getúlio R

2018-05-01

Prostate cancer and benign prostatic hyperplasia have an increased incidence with aging. The most effective treatments are radical prostatectomy and transurethral resection of the prostate. To reduce perioperative bleeding in these surgeries, an approach is the use of tranexamic acid (TXA). Studies show that TXA is effective in reducing the blood loss and the need for transfusion in cardiac, orthopedic, and gynecological surgeries. In prostate surgeries, its efficacy and safety have not been established yet. To determine whether there are differences between TXA versus placebo in terms of intraoperative blood loss, transfusion requirements, hemoglobin levels and the incidence of thromboembolic events. Systematic review with meta-analyses. Anesthesia for prostate surgery. We searched the Medline, Cochrane, EBSCO, and Web of Science databases up to 2017 for randomized controlled trials that compared TXA administration with a control group in patients who submitted to prostate surgery. The primary outcomes were the intraoperative blood loss and transfusion rate. Data on hemoglobin levels and the incidence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) were also collected. Nine comparative studies were included in the meta-analyses. The estimated blood loss and transfusion rate were lower in patients receiving TXA, with a standardized mean difference of -1.93 (95% CI = -2.81 to -1.05, I 2  = 96%), and a risk ratio of 0.61 (95% CI = 0.47 to 0.80, I 2  = 0%), respectively. The hemoglobin levels and the incidence of DVT and PE did not differ between the groups. TXA reduced intraoperative blood loss and the need for transfusion, without increasing the risk of DVT and PE in prostate surgeries. Due to the limited number of studies and the high heterogeneity of the results, more clinical trials with a large number of patients are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A systematic review and meta-Analyses show that carbapenem use and medical devices are the leading risk factors for carbapenem- resistant pseudomonas aeruginosa

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A.F. Voor (Anne); J.A. Severin (Juliëtte); E.M.E.H. Lesaffre (Emmanuel); M.C. Vos (Margreet)

2014-01-01

textabstractA systematic review and meta-Analyses were performed to identify the risk factors associated with carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa and to identify sources and reservoirs for the pathogen. A systematic search of PubMed and Embase databases from 1 January 1987 until 27 January

The inhalation toxicology of p-aramid fibrils.

Science.gov (United States)

Donaldson, Ken

2009-01-01

The pandemic of lung disease caused by asbestos has cast suspicion on any industrial fibrous material that can become airborne in respirable form in workplaces, such that the respirable fibres might be inhaled. Fibre toxicology arose as a sub-specialty of particle toxicology to address the specialised nature of fibre effects and has evolved substantially in the last 25 years. It has yielded valuable information on the dosimetry, structure-activity relationships, and mechanism involved in toxicological effects of a range of fibrous materials, including asbestos, other naturally occurring fibrous materials, and synthetic vitreous fibres. A robust structure/activity paradigm has emerged from this research that highlights fibre length, thinness, and biopersistence as major factors in determining the pathogenicity of a fibre. p-Aramid is a manufactured fibre composed of synthetic polyamide (poly paraphenylene terephthalamide) manufactured on a commercial scale since 1970 by polymerisation and spinning steps. It is used as an advanced composite and in fabrics, body armour, friction materials, etc. Respirable fibrils of p-aramid can be released from the fibres during working and can become airborne. A considerable body of research has been carried out into the hazard posed by inhaled p-aramid fibrils, and this review considers this body of literature and summarises the state-of-the-science in the toxicology of p-aramid fibrils in the light of the existing overarching fibre toxicology paradigm. The peer-reviewed studies demonstrate that p-aramid fibrils can be long and thin but that the fibrils are not biopersistent. Residence in the milieu of the lungs leads to fibre shortening, allowing efficient and complete phagocytosis and effective clearance. Subsequently the p-aramid hazard is low, and this is confirmed in animal studies. The mechanism of shortening of p-aramid fibrils is not well-understood, but may involve the action of macrophages on the fibrils following

Kaolin Quality Prediction from Samples: A Bayesian Network Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivas, T.; Taboada, J.; Ordonez, C.; Matias, J. M.

2009-01-01

We describe the results of an expert system applied to the evaluation of samples of kaolin for industrial use in paper or ceramic manufacture. Different machine learning techniques - classification trees, support vector machines and Bayesian networks - were applied with the aim of evaluating and comparing their interpretability and prediction capacities. The predictive capacity of these models for the samples analyzed was highly satisfactory, both for ceramic quality and paper quality. However, Bayesian networks generally proved to be the most useful technique for our study, as this approach combines good predictive capacity with excellent interpretability of the kaolin quality structure, as it graphically represents relationships between variables and facilitates what-if analyses.

Bayesian optimization for materials science

CERN Document Server

Packwood, Daniel

2017-01-01

This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

Residential Proximity to Major Roadways and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Meta-Analysis

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Zhiqing Zhao

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Research indicates that higher levels of traffic-related pollution exposure increase the risk of diabetes, but the association between road proximity and diabetes risk remains unclear. To assess and quantify the association between residential proximity to major roadways and type 2 diabetes, a systematic review and meta-analysis was performed. Embase, Medline, and Web of Science were searched for eligible studies. Using a random-effects meta-analysis, the summary relative risks (RRs were calculated. Bayesian meta-analysis was also performed. Eight studies (6 cohort and 2 cross-sectional with 158,576 participants were finally included. The summary unadjusted RR for type 2 diabetes associated with residential proximity to major roadways was 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.44, p = 0.001, I2 = 48.1%. The summary adjusted RR of type 2 diabetes associated with residential proximity to major roadways was 1.12 (95% CI: 1.03–1.22, p = 0.01, I2 = 17.9%. After excluding two cross-sectional studies, the summary results suggested that residential proximity to major roadways could increase type 2 diabetes risk (Adjusted RR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.02–1.27, p = 0.025, I2 = 36.6%. Bayesian meta-analysis showed that the unadjusted RR and adjusted RR of type 2 diabetes associated with residential proximity to major roadways were 1.22 (95% credibility interval: 1.06–1.55 and 1.13 (95% credibility interval: 1.01–1.31, respectively. The meta-analysis suggested that residential proximity to major roadways could significantly increase risk of type 2 diabetes, and it is an independent risk factor of type 2 diabetes. More well-designed studies are needed to further strengthen the evidence.

Are we hammering square pegs into round holes? An investigation of the meta-analyses of reading research with students who are d/Deaf or hard of hearing and students who are hearing.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ye; Williams, Cheri

2014-01-01

In a qualitative meta-analysis, the researchers systematically reviewed qualitative and quantitative meta-analyses on reading research with PK-12 students published after the 2000 National Reading Panel (NRP) report. Eleven qualitative and 39 quantitative meta-analyses were reviewed examining reading research with typically developing hearing students, special education hearing students (including English Language Learners), and d/Deaf or hard of hearing (d/Dhh) students. Generally, the meta-analysis yielded findings similar to and corroborative of the NRP's. Contradictory results (e.g., regarding the role of rhyme awareness in reading outcomes) most often resulted from differing definitions of interventions and their measurements. The analysis provided evidence of several instructional approaches that support reading development. On the basis of the qualitative similarity hypothesis (Paul, 2010, 2012; Paul & Lee, 2010; Paul & Wang, 2012; Paul, Wang, & Williams, 2013), the researchers argue that these instructional strategies also should effectively support d/Dhh children's reading development.

Polymorphism complexity and handedness inversion in serum albumin amyloid fibrils.

Science.gov (United States)

Usov, Ivan; Adamcik, Jozef; Mezzenga, Raffaele

2013-12-23

Protein-based amyloid fibrils can show a great variety of polymorphic structures within the same protein precursor, although the origins of these structural homologues remain poorly understood. In this work we investigate the fibrillation of bovine serum albumin--a model globular protein--and we follow the polymorphic evolution by a statistical analysis of high-resolution atomic force microscopy images, complemented, at larger length scales, by concepts based on polymer physics formalism. We identify six distinct classes of coexisting amyloid fibrils, including flexible left-handed twisted ribbons, rigid right-handed helical ribbons and nanotubes. We show that the rigid fibrils originate from flexible fibrils through two diverse polymorphic transitions, first, via a single-fibril transformation when the flexible left-handed twisted ribbons turn into the helical left-handed ribbons, to finally evolve into nanotube-like structures, and second, via a double-fibril transformation when two flexible left-handed twisted ribbons wind together resulting in a right-handed twisted ribbon, followed by a rigid right-handed helical ribbon polymorphic conformation. Hence, the change in handedness occurs with an increase in the level of the fibril's structural organization.

Elasticity in Physically Cross-Linked Amyloid Fibril Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Yiping; Bolisetty, Sreenath; Adamcik, Jozef; Mezzenga, Raffaele

2018-04-01

We provide a constitutive model of semiflexible and rigid amyloid fibril networks by combining the affine thermal model of network elasticity with the Derjaguin-Landau-Vervey-Overbeek (DLVO) theory of electrostatically charged colloids. When compared to rheological experiments on β -lactoglobulin and lysozyme amyloid networks, this approach provides the correct scaling of elasticity versus both concentration (G ˜c2.2 and G ˜c2.5 for semiflexible and rigid fibrils, respectively) and ionic strength (G ˜I4.4 and G ˜I3.8 for β -lactoglobulin and lysozyme, independent from fibril flexibility). The pivotal role played by the screening salt is to reduce the electrostatic barrier among amyloid fibrils, converting labile physical entanglements into long-lived cross-links. This gives a power-law behavior of G with I having exponents significantly larger than in other semiflexible polymer networks (e.g., actin) and carrying DLVO traits specific to the individual amyloid fibrils.

Meta-Analysis at Middle Age: A Personal History

Science.gov (United States)

Glass, Gene V.

2015-01-01

The 40-year history of meta-analysis is traced from the vantage point of one of its originators. Research syntheses leading to the first examples of meta-analysis are identified. Early meta-analyses of the literature on psychotherapy outcomes and school class size are recounted. The influence on the development of meta-analysis of several…

Integrated data analysis of fusion diagnostics by means of the Bayesian probability theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, R.; Dinklage, A.

2004-01-01

Integrated data analysis (IDA) of fusion diagnostics is the combination of heterogeneous diagnostics to obtain validated physical results. Benefits from the integrated approach result from a systematic use of interdependencies; in that sense IDA optimizes the extraction of information from sets of different data. For that purpose IDA requires a systematic and formalized error analysis of all (statistical and systematic) uncertainties involved in each diagnostic. Bayesian probability theory allows for a systematic combination of all information entering the diagnostic model by considering all uncertainties of the measured data, the calibration measurements, and the physical model. Prior physics knowledge on model parameters can be included. Handling of systematic errors is provided. A central goal of the integration of redundant or complementary diagnostics is to provide information to resolve inconsistencies by exploiting interdependencies. A comparable analysis of sets of diagnostics (meta-diagnostics) is performed by combining statistical and systematical uncertainties with model parameters and model uncertainties. Diagnostics improvement and experimental optimization and design of meta-diagnostics will be discussed

Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2011-01-01

A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

Bayesian statistics an introduction

CERN Document Server

Lee, Peter M

2012-01-01

Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

Does in-hospital ventricular fibrillation affect prognosis after myocardial infarction?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, G V; Torp-Pedersen, C; Hildebrandt, P

1997-01-01

with ventricular fibrillation in time intervals, indicated that the importance of ventricular fibrillation for risk of death was exhausted during the initial 60 days after infarction. CONCLUSION: Ventricular fibrillation is associated with an independent increased risk of death within 0-60 days after infarction......AIM: The aim of this study was to estimate the prognostic information to be gained from ventricular fibrillation in patients with myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 4259 consecutive patients with myocardial infarction admitted to one centre in 1977-1988. Five hundred and twenty......-eight (12.4%) of the patients had ventricular fibrillation in hospital. The following risk factors were included in multivariate models to estimate their importance for 30-day and long-term (median 7 year) prognosis: age, gender, ventricular fibrillation, congestive heart failure, pulmonary oedema...

Evaluation of European Schizophrenia GWAS Loci in Asian Populations via Comprehensive Meta-Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Xiao; Luo, Xiong-Jian; Chang, Hong; Liu, Zichao; Li, Ming

2017-08-01

Schizophrenia is a severe and highly heritable neuropsychiatric disorder. Recent genetic analyses including genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have implicated multiple genome-wide significant variants for schizophrenia among European populations. However, many of these risk variants were not largely validated in other populations of different ancestry such as Asians. To validate whether these European GWAS significant loci are associated with schizophrenia in Asian populations, we conducted a systematic literature search and meta-analyses on 19 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in Asian populations by combining all available case-control and family-based samples, including up to 30,000 individuals. We employed classical fixed (or random) effects inverse variance weighted methods to calculate summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). Among the 19 GWAS loci, we replicated the risk associations of nine markers (e.g., SNPs at VRK2, ITIH3/4, NDST3, NOTCH4) surpassing significance level (two-tailed P Asian replication samples and initial European GWAS findings, and the successful replications of these GWAS loci in a different ethnic group provide stronger evidence for their clinical associations with schizophrenia. Further studies, focusing on the molecular mechanisms of these GWAS significant loci, will become increasingly important for understanding of the pathogenesis to schizophrenia.

Atrial fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olesen, Morten S; Nielsen, Morten W; Haunsø, Stig

2014-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia affecting 1-2% of the general population. A number of studies have demonstrated that AF, and in particular lone AF, has a substantial genetic component. Monogenic mutations in lone and familial AF, although rare, have been recognized...

Insights into the phylogeny of Northern Hemisphere Armillaria: Neighbor-net and Bayesian analyses of translation elongation factor 1-α gene sequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Klopfenstein, Ned B; Stewart, Jane E; Ota, Yuko; Hanna, John W; Richardson, Bryce A; Ross-Davis, Amy L; Elías-Román, Rubén D; Korhonen, Kari; Keča, Nenad; Iturritxa, Eugenia; Alvarado-Rosales, Dionicio; Solheim, Halvor; Brazee, Nicholas J; Łakomy, Piotr; Cleary, Michelle R; Hasegawa, Eri; Kikuchi, Taisei; Garza-Ocañas, Fortunato; Tsopelas, Panaghiotis; Rigling, Daniel; Prospero, Simone; Tsykun, Tetyana; Bérubé, Jean A; Stefani, Franck O P; Jafarpour, Saeideh; Antonín, Vladimír; Tomšovský, Michal; McDonald, Geral I; Woodward, Stephen; Kim, Mee-Sook

2017-01-01

Armillaria possesses several intriguing characteristics that have inspired wide interest in understanding phylogenetic relationships within and among species of this genus. Nuclear ribosomal DNA sequence-based analyses of Armillaria provide only limited information for phylogenetic studies among widely divergent taxa. More recent studies have shown that translation elongation factor 1-α (tef1) sequences are highly informative for phylogenetic analysis of Armillaria species within diverse global regions. This study used Neighbor-net and coalescence-based Bayesian analyses to examine phylogenetic relationships of newly determined and existing tef1 sequences derived from diverse Armillaria species from across the Northern Hemisphere, with Southern Hemisphere Armillaria species included for reference. Based on the Bayesian analysis of tef1 sequences, Armillaria species from the Northern Hemisphere are generally contained within the following four superclades, which are named according to the specific epithet of the most frequently cited species within the superclade: (i) Socialis/Tabescens (exannulate) superclade including Eurasian A. ectypa, North American A. socialis (A. tabescens), and Eurasian A. socialis (A. tabescens) clades; (ii) Mellea superclade including undescribed annulate North American Armillaria sp. (Mexico) and four separate clades of A. mellea (Europe and Iran, eastern Asia, and two groups from North America); (iii) Gallica superclade including Armillaria Nag E (Japan), multiple clades of A. gallica (Asia and Europe), A. calvescens (eastern North America), A. cepistipes (North America), A. altimontana (western USA), A. nabsnona (North America and Japan), and at least two A. gallica clades (North America); and (iv) Solidipes/Ostoyae superclade including two A. solidipes/ostoyae clades (North America), A. gemina (eastern USA), A. solidipes/ostoyae (Eurasia), A. cepistipes (Europe and Japan), A. sinapina (North America and Japan), and A. borealis

Modulation of human IAPP fibrillation: cosolutes, crowders and chaperones.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Mimi; Estel, Kathrin; Seeliger, Janine; Friedrich, Ralf P; Dogan, Susanne; Wanker, Erich E; Winter, Roland; Ebbinghaus, Simon

2015-04-07

The cellular environment determines the structure and function of proteins. Marginal changes of the environment can severely affect the energy landscape of protein folding. However, despite the important role of chaperones on protein folding, less is known about chaperonal modulation of protein aggregation and fibrillation considering different classes of chaperones. We find that the pharmacological chaperone O4, the chemical chaperone proline as well as the protein chaperone serum amyloid P component (SAP) are inhibitors of the type 2 diabetes mellitus-related aggregation process of islet amyloid polypeptide (IAPP). By applying biophysical methods such as thioflavin T fluorescence spectroscopy, fluorescence anisotropy, total reflection Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy, circular dichroism spectroscopy and atomic force microscopy we analyse and compare their inhibition mechanism. We demonstrate that the fibrillation reaction of human IAPP is strongly inhibited by formation of globular, amorphous assemblies by both, the pharmacological and the protein chaperones. We studied the inhibition mechanism under cell-like conditions by using the artificial crowding agents Ficoll 70 and sucrose. Under such conditions the suppressive effect of proline was decreased, whereas the pharmacological chaperone remains active.

Bayesian networks with examples in R

CERN Document Server

Scutari, Marco

2014-01-01

Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

Essential Oils May Lead α-Synuclein towards Toxic Fibrils Formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dina Morshedi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available α-Synuclein (α-Syn fibrillation links with Parkinson’s disease (PD and several related syndromes. It is believed that exposure to the factors which promote fibrillation may induce and progress such neurodegenerative diseases (NDs. Herein, the effects of some wildly used essential oils including Myrtus communis (M. communis on α-Syn fibrillation were examined. M. communis particularly increased α-Syn fibrillation in a concentration dependent manner. Given that applications of M. communis are very extensive in Asian societies, especially Zoroastrians, this study was extended towards its role on α-Syn fibrillation/cytotoxicity. By using a unilamellar vesicle, it was shown that the aggregated species with tendency to perturb membrane were increased in the presence of M. communis. In this regard, the cytotoxicity of α-Syn on SH-SH5Y cells was also increased significantly. Inappropriately, the effects of fibrillation inhibitors, baicalein and cuminaldehyde, were modulated in the presence of M. communis. However, major components of M. communis did not induce fibrillation and also the effect of M. communis was limited on other fibrinogenic proteins. Assuming that essential oils have the ability to pass through the blood brain barrier (BBB along with the popular attention on aromatherapy for the incurable ND, these findings suggest an implementation of fibrillation tests for essential oils.

Trial Sequential Analysis in systematic reviews with meta-analysis

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Jørn Wetterslev

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Most meta-analyses in systematic reviews, including Cochrane ones, do not have sufficient statistical power to detect or refute even large intervention effects. This is why a meta-analysis ought to be regarded as an interim analysis on its way towards a required information size. The results of the meta-analyses should relate the total number of randomised participants to the estimated required meta-analytic information size accounting for statistical diversity. When the number of participants and the corresponding number of trials in a meta-analysis are insufficient, the use of the traditional 95% confidence interval or the 5% statistical significance threshold will lead to too many false positive conclusions (type I errors and too many false negative conclusions (type II errors. Methods We developed a methodology for interpreting meta-analysis results, using generally accepted, valid evidence on how to adjust thresholds for significance in randomised clinical trials when the required sample size has not been reached. Results The Lan-DeMets trial sequential monitoring boundaries in Trial Sequential Analysis offer adjusted confidence intervals and restricted thresholds for statistical significance when the diversity-adjusted required information size and the corresponding number of required trials for the meta-analysis have not been reached. Trial Sequential Analysis provides a frequentistic approach to control both type I and type II errors. We define the required information size and the corresponding number of required trials in a meta-analysis and the diversity (D2 measure of heterogeneity. We explain the reasons for using Trial Sequential Analysis of meta-analysis when the actual information size fails to reach the required information size. We present examples drawn from traditional meta-analyses using unadjusted naïve 95% confidence intervals and 5% thresholds for statistical significance. Spurious conclusions in

Dronedarone in high-risk permanent atrial fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Connolly, Stuart J; Camm, A John; Halperin, Jonathan L

2011-01-01

Dronedarone restores sinus rhythm and reduces hospitalization or death in intermittent atrial fibrillation. It also lowers heart rate and blood pressure and has antiadrenergic and potential ventricular antiarrhythmic effects. We hypothesized that dronedarone would reduce major vascular events...... in high-risk permanent atrial fibrillation....

Newer Anticoagulants for Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation

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Joseph M. Harburger

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Non-valvular atrial fibrillation is a recognized risk factor for stroke and systemic embolism. It has been clearly established that warfarin reduces the risk of stroke and systemic embolism in persons with atrial fibrillation and additional risk factors for stroke. The use of warfarin, however, requires frequent monitoring, and there is great variability in patient response to warfarin. Warfarin interacts with several medications and foods. In addition, warfarin use portends a significant risk of bleeding. For these reasons, warfarin is frequently not prescribed to persons for whom the drug would provide a clear benefit. Over the past decade, attempts have been made to develop drugs that are at least as safe and effective as warfarin for the treatment of atrial fibrillation that do not require monitoring nor have as many interactions. Initial studies of compounds in this regard ultimately failed due to safety concerns, but over the past two years two novel agents have been approved by the United States Food and Drug Association for anticoagulation in non-valvular atrial fibrillation, another drug is under review, and additional compounds are being studied. This article will review the use of warfarin and these new agents in the treatment of non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

HALT & REVERSE: Hsf1 activators lower cardiomyocyt damage; towards a novel approach to REVERSE atrial fibrillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lanters, Eva A H; van Marion, Denise M S; Kik, Charles; Steen, Herman; Bogers, Ad J J C; Allessie, Maurits A; Brundel, Bianca J J M; de Groot, Natasja M S

2015-11-05

Atrial fibrillation is a progressive arrhythmia, the exact mechanism underlying the progressive nature of recurrent AF episodes is still unknown. Recently, it was found that key players of the protein quality control system of the cardiomyocyte, i.e. Heat Shock Proteins, protect against atrial fibrillation progression by attenuating atrial electrical and structural remodeling (electropathology). HALT & REVERSE aims to investigate the correlation between electropathology, as defined by endo- or epicardial mapping, Heat Shock Protein levels and development or recurrence of atrial fibrillation following pulmonary vein isolation, or electrical cardioversion or cardiothoracic surgery. This study is a prospective observational study. Three separate study groups are defined: (1) cardiothoracic surgery, (2) pulmonary vein isolation and (3) electrical cardioversion. An intra-operative high-resolution epicardial (group 1) or endocardial (group 2) mapping procedure of the atria is performed to study atrial electropathology. Blood samples for Heat Shock Protein determination are obtained at baseline and during the follow-up period at 3 months (group 2), 6 months (groups 1 and 2) and 1 year (group 1 and 2). Tissue samples of the right and left atrial appendages in patients in group 1 are analysed for Heat Shock Protein levels and for tissue characteristics. Early post procedural atrial fibrillation is detected by continuous rhythm monitoring, whereas late post procedural atrial fibrillation is documented by either electrocardiogram or 24-h Holter registration. HALT & REVERSE aims to identify the correlation between Heat Shock Protein levels and degree of electropathology. The study outcome will contribute to novel diagnostic tools for the early recognition of clinical atrial fibrillation. Rotterdam Medical Ethical Committee MEC-2014-393, Dutch Trial Registration NTR4658.

META-ANALYSIS: THE WAY FORWARD IN MEDICAL DISCOVERY

African Journals Online (AJOL)

data, and (6) report the results. Define the Research Question. A meta-analysis begins with a question. Common questions addressed in meta-analyses are whether one. META-ANALYSIS: THE WAY FORWARD IN MEDICAL DISCOVERY. Akinyemi J.O. MSc (Medical Statistics), B Tech (Comp. Sc.) Correspondence:.

No evidence for genome-wide interactions on plasma fibrinogen by smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index: results from meta-analyses of 80,607 subjects.

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Jens Baumert

Full Text Available Plasma fibrinogen is an acute phase protein playing an important role in the blood coagulation cascade having strong associations with smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS have identified a variety of gene regions associated with elevated plasma fibrinogen concentrations. However, little is yet known about how associations between environmental factors and fibrinogen might be modified by genetic variation. Therefore, we conducted large-scale meta-analyses of genome-wide interaction studies to identify possible interactions of genetic variants and smoking status, alcohol consumption or BMI on fibrinogen concentration. The present study included 80,607 subjects of European ancestry from 22 studies. Genome-wide interaction analyses were performed separately in each study for about 2.6 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs across the 22 autosomal chromosomes. For each SNP and risk factor, we performed a linear regression under an additive genetic model including an interaction term between SNP and risk factor. Interaction estimates were meta-analysed using a fixed-effects model. No genome-wide significant interaction with smoking status, alcohol consumption or BMI was observed in the meta-analyses. The most suggestive interaction was found for smoking and rs10519203, located in the LOC123688 region on chromosome 15, with a p value of 6.2 × 10(-8. This large genome-wide interaction study including 80,607 participants found no strong evidence of interaction between genetic variants and smoking status, alcohol consumption or BMI on fibrinogen concentrations. Further studies are needed to yield deeper insight in the interplay between environmental factors and gene variants on the regulation of fibrinogen concentrations.

Comparative efficacy and safety of contact force-sensing catheter and second-generation cryoballoon ablation for atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Zhou

Full Text Available This meta-analysis compared the efficacy and safety of the contact force (CF-sensing catheter and second-generation cryoballoon (CB ablation for treating atrial fibrillation (AF. Six controlled clinical trials comparing ablation for AF using a CF-sensing catheter or second-generation CB were identified from PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Wanfang Data, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure. The procedure duration was significantly lower in the CB group compared with that in the CF group [mean difference (MD=29.4; 95%CI=17.84–40.96; P=0.01], whereas there was no difference between the groups for fluoroscopy duration (MD=0.59; 95%CI=–4.48–5.66; P=0.82. Moreover, there was no difference in the incidence of non-lethal complications (embolic event, tamponade, femoral/subclavian hematoma, arteriovenous fistula, pulmonary vein stenosis, phrenic nerve palsy, and esophageal injury between the CB and the CF groups (8.38 vs 5.35%; RR=0.66; 95%CI=0.37–1.17; P=0.15. Transient phrenic nerve palsy occurred in 17 of 326 patients (5.2% of the CB group vs none in the CF group (RR=0.12; 95%CI=0.03–0.43; P=0.001. A comparable proportion of patients in CF and CB groups suffered from AF recurrence during the 12-month follow-up after a single ablation procedure [risk ratio (RR=1.03; 95%CI=0.78–1.35; P=0.84]. AF ablation using CF-sensing catheters and second-generation CB showed comparable fluoroscopy duration and efficacy (during a 12-month follow-up, with shorter procedure duration and different complications in the CB group.

Probing the mechanism of insulin fibril formation with insulin mutants.

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, L; Frokjaer, S; Brange, J; Uversky, V N; Fink, A L

2001-07-27

The molecular basis of insulin fibril formation was investigated by studying the structural properties and kinetics of fibril formation of 20 different human insulin mutants at both low pH (conditions favoring monomer/dimer) and at pH 7.4 (conditions favoring tetramer/hexamer). Small-angle X-ray scattering showed insulin to be monomeric in 20% acetic acid, 0.1 M NaCl, pH 2. The secondary structure of the mutants was assessed using far-UV circular dichroism, and the tertiary structure was determined using near-UV circular dichroism, quenching of intrinsic fluorescence by acrylamide and interactions with the hydrophobic probe 1-anilino-8-naphthalene-sulfonic acid (ANS). The kinetics of fibril formation were monitored with the fluorescent dye, Thioflavin T. The results indicate that the monomer is the state from which fibrils arise, thus under some conditions dissociation of hexamers may be rate limiting or partially rate limiting. The insulin mutants were found to retain substantial nativelike secondary and tertiary structure under all conditions studied. The results suggest that fibril formation of the insulin mutants is controlled by specific molecular interactions that are sensitive to variations in the primary structure. The observed effects of several mutations on the rate of fibril formation are inconsistent with a previously suggested model for fibrillation [Brange, J., Whittingham, J., Edwards, D., Youshang, Z., Wollmer, A., Brandenburg, D., Dodson, G., and Finch, J. (1997) Curr. Sci. 72, 470-476]. Two surfaces on the insulin monomer are identified as potential interacting sites in insulin fibrils, one consisting of the residues B10, B16, and B17 and the other consisting of at least the residues A8 and B25. The marked increase in the lag time for fibril formation with mutations to more polar residues, as well as mutations to charged residues, demonstrates the importance of both hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions in the initial stages of fibrillation

Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Host, Ole; Lahav, Ofer; Abdalla, Filipe B.; Eitel, Klaus

2007-12-01

We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological observations. We compare the frequentist and Bayesian bounds on the effective electron neutrino mass mβ which the KATRIN neutrino mass experiment is expected to obtain, using both an analytical likelihood function and Monte Carlo simulations of KATRIN. Assuming a uniform prior in mβ, we find that a null result yields an upper bound of about 0.17 eV at 90% confidence in the Bayesian analysis, to be compared with the frequentist KATRIN reference value of 0.20 eV. This is a significant difference when judged relative to the systematic and statistical uncertainties of the experiment. On the other hand, an input mβ=0.35eV, which is the KATRIN 5σ detection threshold, would be detected at virtually the same level. Finally, we combine the simulated KATRIN results with cosmological data in the form of present (post-WMAP) and future (simulated Planck) observations. If an input of mβ=0.2eV is assumed in our simulations, KATRIN alone excludes a zero neutrino mass at 2.2σ. Adding Planck data increases the probability of detection to a median 2.7σ. The analysis highlights the importance of combining cosmological and laboratory data on an equal footing.

Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Host, Ole; Lahav, Ofer; Abdalla, Filipe B.; Eitel, Klaus

2007-01-01

We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological observations. We compare the frequentist and Bayesian bounds on the effective electron neutrino mass m β which the KATRIN neutrino mass experiment is expected to obtain, using both an analytical likelihood function and Monte Carlo simulations of KATRIN. Assuming a uniform prior in m β , we find that a null result yields an upper bound of about 0.17 eV at 90% confidence in the Bayesian analysis, to be compared with the frequentist KATRIN reference value of 0.20 eV. This is a significant difference when judged relative to the systematic and statistical uncertainties of the experiment. On the other hand, an input m β =0.35 eV, which is the KATRIN 5σ detection threshold, would be detected at virtually the same level. Finally, we combine the simulated KATRIN results with cosmological data in the form of present (post-WMAP) and future (simulated Planck) observations. If an input of m β =0.2 eV is assumed in our simulations, KATRIN alone excludes a zero neutrino mass at 2.2σ. Adding Planck data increases the probability of detection to a median 2.7σ. The analysis highlights the importance of combining cosmological and laboratory data on an equal footing

A Bayesian account of quantum histories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marlow, Thomas

2006-01-01

We investigate whether quantum history theories can be consistent with Bayesian reasoning and whether such an analysis helps clarify the interpretation of such theories. First, we summarise and extend recent work categorising two different approaches to formalising multi-time measurements in quantum theory. The standard approach consists of describing an ordered series of measurements in terms of history propositions with non-additive 'probabilities.' The non-standard approach consists of defining multi-time measurements to consist of sets of exclusive and exhaustive history propositions and recovering the single-time exclusivity of results when discussing single-time history propositions. We analyse whether such history propositions can be consistent with Bayes' rule. We show that certain class of histories are given a natural Bayesian interpretation, namely, the linearly positive histories originally introduced by Goldstein and Page. Thus, we argue that this gives a certain amount of interpretational clarity to the non-standard approach. We also attempt a justification of our analysis using Cox's axioms of probability theory

Fibril formation from pea protein and subsequent gel formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Munialo, Claire Darizu; Martin, Anneke H; van der Linden, Erik; de Jongh, Harmen H J

2014-03-19

The objective of this study was to characterize fibrillar aggregates made using pea proteins, to assemble formed fibrils into protein-based gels, and to study the rheological behavior of these gels. Micrometer-long fibrillar aggregates were observed after pea protein solutions had been heated for 20 h at pH 2.0. Following heating of pea proteins, it was observed that all of the proteins were hydrolyzed into peptides and that 50% of these peptides were assembled into fibrils. Changes on a structural level in pea proteins were studied using circular dichroism, transmission electron microscopy, and particle size analysis. During the fibril assembly process, an increase in aggregate size was observed, which coincided with an increase in thioflavin T binding, indicating the presence of β-sheet aggregates. Fibrils made using pea proteins were more branched and curly. Gel formation of preformed fibrils was induced by slow acidification from pH 7.0 to a final pH of around pH 5.0. The ability of pea protein-based fibrillar gels to fracture during an amplitude sweep was comparable to those of soy protein and whey protein-based fibrillar gels, although gels prepared from fibrils made using pea protein and soy protein were weaker than those of whey protein. The findings show that fibrils can be prepared from pea protein, which can be incorporated into protein-based fibrillar gels.

Treatment Guidelines of Atrial Fibrillation (AFib or AF)

Science.gov (United States)

... Artery Disease Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Treatment Guidelines of Atrial Fibrillation (AFib or AF) Updated:Jun 28,2017 What are the treatment guidelines for atrial fibrillation? Medical guidelines are written by ...

Iowa Mutant Apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-IIowa) Fibrils Target Lysosomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Kameyama, Hirokazu; Nakajima, Hiroyuki; Nishitsuji, Kazuchika; Mikawa, Shiho; Uchimura, Kenji; Kobayashi, Norihiro; Okuhira, Keiichiro; Saito, Hiroyuki; Sakashita, Naomi

2016-07-28

The single amino acid mutation G26R in human apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-IIowa) is the first mutation that was associated with familial AApoA1 amyloidosis. The N-terminal fragments (amino acid residues 1-83) of apoA-I containing this mutation deposit as amyloid fibrils in patients' tissues and organs, but the mechanisms of cellular degradation and cytotoxicity have not yet been clarified. In this study, we demonstrated degradation of apoA-IIowa fibrils via the autophagy-lysosomal pathway in human embryonic kidney 293 cells. ApoA-IIowa fibrils induced an increase in lysosomal pH and the cytosolic release of the toxic lysosomal protease cathepsin B. The mitochondrial dysfunction caused by apoA-IIowa fibrils depended on cathepsin B and was ameliorated by increasing the degradation of apoA-IIowa fibrils. Thus, although apoA-IIowa fibril transport to lysosomes and fibril degradation in lysosomes may have occurred, the presence of an excess number of apoA-IIowa fibrils, more than the lysosomes could degrade, may be detrimental to cells. Our results thus provide evidence that the target of apoA-IIowa fibrils is lysosomes, and we thereby gained a novel insight into the mechanism of AApoA1 amyloidosis.

Conjunction analysis and propositional logic in fMRI data analysis using Bayesian statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudert, Thomas; Lohmann, Gabriele

2008-12-01

To evaluate logical expressions over different effects in data analyses using the general linear model (GLM) and to evaluate logical expressions over different posterior probability maps (PPMs). In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data analysis, the GLM was applied to estimate unknown regression parameters. Based on the GLM, Bayesian statistics can be used to determine the probability of conjunction, disjunction, implication, or any other arbitrary logical expression over different effects or contrast. For second-level inferences, PPMs from individual sessions or subjects are utilized. These PPMs can be combined to a logical expression and its probability can be computed. The methods proposed in this article are applied to data from a STROOP experiment and the methods are compared to conjunction analysis approaches for test-statistics. The combination of Bayesian statistics with propositional logic provides a new approach for data analyses in fMRI. Two different methods are introduced for propositional logic: the first for analyses using the GLM and the second for common inferences about different probability maps. The methods introduced extend the idea of conjunction analysis to a full propositional logic and adapt it from test-statistics to Bayesian statistics. The new approaches allow inferences that are not possible with known standard methods in fMRI. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Augmenting Data with Published Results in Bayesian Linear Regression

Science.gov (United States)

de Leeuw, Christiaan; Klugkist, Irene

2012-01-01

In most research, linear regression analyses are performed without taking into account published results (i.e., reported summary statistics) of similar previous studies. Although the prior density in Bayesian linear regression could accommodate such prior knowledge, formal models for doing so are absent from the literature. The goal of this…

Renal function, time in therapeutic range and outcomes in warfarin-treated atrial fibrillation patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonde, Anders Nissen; Lip, Gregory Y H; Kamper, Anne-Lise

2017-01-01

Patients with severely reduced renal function have been excluded from randomized controlled trials of oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation (AF). Warfarin treatment in this population is controversial and data on anticoagulation control and the impact on adverse outcomes are needed. By indi......Patients with severely reduced renal function have been excluded from randomized controlled trials of oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation (AF). Warfarin treatment in this population is controversial and data on anticoagulation control and the impact on adverse outcomes are needed......) was calculated using the Rosendaal method. The risk of stroke and bleeding was estimated using multivariable Cox regression analyses with eGFR and TTR estimated time dependently throughout follow-up. We identified 10,423 warfarin-treated AF patients with available international normalized ratio and creatinine...

Analysis of brain natriuretic peptide in 30 patients with atrial fibrillation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Qiang; Lu Jianghui; Li Weipeng; Yuan Yuan; Sun Weili

2009-01-01

To investigate the relationship between atrial fibrillation and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), plasma levels of BNP in 30 patients with atrial fibrillation and 30 health controls were assayed and compared. The results showed that plasma levels of BNP in patients with atrial fibrillation were significantly higher than those of health controls (P<0.05). When the patients with atrial fibrillation were restored sinus rhythm, the concentration of BNP decreased significantly (P<0.05). BNP was a sensitive marker of cardiac dysfunction, and BNP was positively correlated with atrial fibrillation. (authors)

Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

Science.gov (United States)

Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2018-05-01

Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Viscoelastic behavior of discrete human collagen fibrils

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svensson, Rene; Hassenkam, Tue; P, Hansen

2010-01-01

Whole tendon and fibril bundles display viscoelastic behavior, but to the best of our knowledge this property has not been directly measured in single human tendon fibrils. In the present work an atomic force microscopy (AFM) approach was used for tensile testing of two human patellar tendon fibr...

Safety and efficacy of anticoagulation for secondary stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation patients: The AMADEUS trial

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lane, D.A.; Kamphuisen, P.W.; Minini, P.; Buller, H.R.; Lip, G.Y.H.

2010-01-01

ackground: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and previous ischemic stroke are at high risk of recurrent stroke, but are also perceived to be at increased bleeding risk while treated with anticoagulants. Methods: Post-hoc analyses examined the efficacy and safety of anticoagulation of 4576 AF

Making evidence more wanted: a systematic review of facilitators to enhance the uptake of evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, John; Byrne, Charles; Clarke, Mike

2012-12-01

The increased uptake of evidence from systematic reviews is advocated because of their potential to improve the quality of decision making for patient care. Systematic reviews can do this by decreasing inappropriate clinical variation and quickly expediting the application of current, effective advances to everyday practice. However, research suggests that evidence from systematic reviews has not been widely adopted by health professionals. Little is known about the facilitators to uptake of research evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses. To review the facilitators to the uptake by decision makers, of evidence from systematic, meta-analyses and the databases containing them. We searched 19 databases covering the full range of publication years, utilised three search engines and also personally contacted investigators. Grey literature and knowledge translation research was particularly sought. Reference lists of primary studies and related reviews were also searched. Studies were included if they reported on the views and perceptions of decision makers on the uptake of evidence from systematic reviews, meta-analyses and the databases associated with them. One investigator screened titles to identify candidate articles, and then two reviewers independently assessed the relevance of retrieved articles to exclude studies that did not meet the inclusion criteria. Quality of the included studies was also assessed. Using a pre-established taxonomy, two reviewers described the methods of included studies and extracted data that were summarised in tables and then analysed. Differences were resolved by consensus. Of articles initially identified, we selected unique published studies describing at least one facilitator to the uptake of evidence from systematic reviews. The 15 unique studies reported 10 surveys, three qualitative investigations and two mixed studies that addressed potential facilitators. Five studies were from Canada, four from the UK, three from

Personalized management of atrial fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirchhof, Paulus; Breithardt, Günter; Aliot, Etienne

2013-01-01

The management of atrial fibrillation (AF) has seen marked changes in past years, with the introduction of new oral anticoagulants, new antiarrhythmic drugs, and the emergence of catheter ablation as a common intervention for rhythm control. Furthermore, new technologies enhance our ability......, and hospitalizations. During the fourth Atrial Fibrillation competence NETwork/European Heart Rhythm Association (AFNET/EHRA) consensus conference, we identified the following opportunities to personalize management of AF in a better manner with a view to improve outcomes by integrating atrial morphology and damage...

A systematic review, and meta-analyses, of the impact of health-related claims on dietary choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaur, Asha; Scarborough, Peter; Rayner, Mike

2017-07-11

Health-related claims are statements regarding the nutritional content of a food (nutrition claims) and/or indicate that a relationship exists between a food and a health outcome (health claims). Their impact on food purchasing or consumption decisions is unclear. This systematic review measured the effect of health-related claims, on pre-packaged foods in retail settings, on adult purchasing decisions (real and perceived). In September 2016, we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, CAB abstracts, Business Source Complete, and Web of Science/Science Citation Index & Social Science Citation Index for articles in English published in peer-review journals. Studies were included if they were controlled experiments where the experimental group(s) included a health-related claim and the control group involved an identical product without a health-related claim. Included studies measured (at an individual or population level); actual or intended choice, purchases, and/or consumption. The primary outcome was product choices and purchases, the secondary outcome was food consumption and preference. Results were standardised through calculating odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the likelihood of choosing a product when a health-related claim was present. Results were combined in a random-effects meta-analysis. Thirty-one papers were identified, 17 of which were included for meta-analyses. Most studies were conducted in Europe (n = 17) and the USA (n = 7). Identified studies were choice experiments that measured the likelihood of a product being chosen when a claim was present compared to when a claim was not present, (n = 16), 15 studies were experiments that measured either; intent-rating scale outcomes (n = 8), consumption (n = 6), a combination of the two (n = 1), or purchase data (n = 1). Overall, 20 studies found that claims increase purchasing and/or consumption, eight studies had mixed results, and two studies found consumption

Genome-Wide Meta-Analyses of Breast, Ovarian, and Prostate Cancer Association Studies Identify Multiple New Susceptibility Loci Shared by at Least Two Cancer Types

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kar, Siddhartha P; Beesley, Jonathan; Amin Al Olama, Ali

2016-01-01

UNLABELLED: Breast, ovarian, and prostate cancers are hormone-related and may have a shared genetic basis, but this has not been investigated systematically by genome-wide association (GWA) studies. Meta-analyses combining the largest GWA meta-analysis data sets for these cancers totaling 112...... (rs200182588/9q31/SMC2; rs8037137/15q26/RCCD1), and two breast and prostate cancer risk loci (rs5013329/1p34/NSUN4; rs9375701/6q23/L3MBTL3). Index variants in five additional regions previously associated with only one cancer also showed clear association with a second cancer type. Cell......-type-specific expression quantitative trait locus and enhancer-gene interaction annotations suggested target genes with potential cross-cancer roles at the new loci. Pathway analysis revealed significant enrichment of death receptor signaling genes near loci with P cancer meta-analysis. SIGNIFICANCE...

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

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Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation for adults with atrial fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Risom, Signe Stelling; Zwisler, Ann-Dorthe; Johansen, Pernille Palm

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation may benefit adults with atrial fibrillation or those who had been treated for atrial fibrillation. Atrial fibrillation is caused by multiple micro re-entry circuits within the atrial tissue, which result in chaotic rapid activity in the atria....... OBJECTIVES: To assess the benefits and harms of exercise-based rehabilitation programmes, alone or with another intervention, compared with no-exercise training controls in adults who currently have AF, or have been treated for AF. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the following electronic databases; CENTRAL...... the benefits and harms of exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation for adults with atrial fibrillation on patient-relevant outcomes....

Comprehensive review of genetic association studies and meta-analyses on miRNA polymorphisms and cancer risk.

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Kshitij Srivastava

Full Text Available MicroRNAs (miRNAs are small RNA molecules that regulate the expression of corresponding messenger RNAs (mRNAs. Variations in the level of expression of distinct miRNAs have been observed in the genesis, progression and prognosis of multiple human malignancies. The present study was aimed to investigate the association between four highly studied miRNA polymorphisms (mir-146a rs2910164, mir-196a2 rs11614913, mir-149 rs2292832 and mir-499 rs3746444 and cancer risk by using a two-sided meta-analytic approach.An updated meta-analysis based on 53 independent case-control studies consisting of 27573 cancer cases and 34791 controls was performed. Odds ratio (OR and 95% confidence interval (95% CI were used to investigate the strength of the association.Overall, the pooled analysis showed that mir-196a2 rs11614913 was associated with a decreased cancer risk (OR = 0.846, P = 0.004, TT vs. CC while other miRNA SNPs showed no association with overall cancer risk. Subgroup analyses based on type of cancer and ethnicity were also performed, and results indicated that there was a strong association between miR-146a rs2910164 and overall cancer risk in Caucasian population under recessive model (OR = 1.274, 95%CI = 1.096-1.481, P = 0.002. Stratified analysis by cancer type also associated mir-196a2 rs11614913 with lung and colorectal cancer at allelic and genotypic level.The present meta-analysis suggests an important role of mir-196a2 rs11614913 polymorphism with overall cancer risk especially in Asian population. Further studies with large sample size are needed to evaluate and confirm this association.

Examining the associations between HIV-related stigma and health outcomes in people living with HIV/AIDS: a series of meta-analyses

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Mitra, Sanjana; Chen, Shiyi; Gogolishvili, David; Globerman, Jason; Chambers, Lori; Wilson, Mike; Logie, Carmen H; Shi, Qiyun; Morassaei, Sara; Rourke, Sean B

2016-01-01

Objective To conduct a systematic review and series of meta-analyses on the association between HIV-related stigma and health among people living with HIV. Data sources A structured search was conducted on 6 electronic databases for journal articles reporting associations between HIV-related stigma and health-related outcomes published between 1996 and 2013. Study eligibility criteria Controlled studies, cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies in people living with HIV were considered for inclusion. Outcome measures Mental health (depressive symptoms, emotional and mental distress, anxiety), quality of life, physical health, social support, adherence to antiretroviral therapy, access to and usage of health/social services and risk behaviours. Results 64 studies were included in our meta-analyses. We found significant associations between HIV-related stigma and higher rates of depression, lower social support and lower levels of adherence to antiretroviral medications and access to and usage of health and social services. Weaker relationships were observed between HIV-related stigma and anxiety, quality of life, physical health, emotional and mental distress and sexual risk practices. While risk of bias assessments revealed overall good quality related to how HIV stigma and health outcomes were measured on the included studies, high risk of bias among individual studies was observed in terms of appropriate control for potential confounders. Additional research should focus on elucidating the mechanisms behind the negative relationship between stigma and health to better inform interventions to reduce the impact of stigma on the health and well-being of people with HIV. Conclusions This systematic review and series of meta-analyses support the notion that HIV-related stigma has a detrimental impact on a variety of health-related outcomes in people with HIV. This review can inform the development of multifaceted, intersectoral interventions to

Examining the associations between HIV-related stigma and health outcomes in people living with HIV/AIDS: a series of meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Rueda, Sergio; Mitra, Sanjana; Chen, Shiyi; Gogolishvili, David; Globerman, Jason; Chambers, Lori; Wilson, Mike; Logie, Carmen H; Shi, Qiyun; Morassaei, Sara; Rourke, Sean B

2016-07-13

To conduct a systematic review and series of meta-analyses on the association between HIV-related stigma and health among people living with HIV. A structured search was conducted on 6 electronic databases for journal articles reporting associations between HIV-related stigma and health-related outcomes published between 1996 and 2013. Controlled studies, cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies in people living with HIV were considered for inclusion. Mental health (depressive symptoms, emotional and mental distress, anxiety), quality of life, physical health, social support, adherence to antiretroviral therapy, access to and usage of health/social services and risk behaviours. 64 studies were included in our meta-analyses. We found significant associations between HIV-related stigma and higher rates of depression, lower social support and lower levels of adherence to antiretroviral medications and access to and usage of health and social services. Weaker relationships were observed between HIV-related stigma and anxiety, quality of life, physical health, emotional and mental distress and sexual risk practices. While risk of bias assessments revealed overall good quality related to how HIV stigma and health outcomes were measured on the included studies, high risk of bias among individual studies was observed in terms of appropriate control for potential confounders. Additional research should focus on elucidating the mechanisms behind the negative relationship between stigma and health to better inform interventions to reduce the impact of stigma on the health and well-being of people with HIV. This systematic review and series of meta-analyses support the notion that HIV-related stigma has a detrimental impact on a variety of health-related outcomes in people with HIV. This review can inform the development of multifaceted, intersectoral interventions to reduce the impact of HIV-related stigma on the health and well-being of people living

Cancer and central nervous system disorders: protocol for an umbrella review of systematic reviews and updated meta-analyses of observational studies.

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Catalá-López, Ferrán; Hutton, Brian; Driver, Jane A; Page, Matthew J; Ridao, Manuel; Valderas, José M; Alonso-Arroyo, Adolfo; Forés-Martos, Jaume; Martínez, Salvador; Gènova-Maleras, Ricard; Macías-Saint-Gerons, Diego; Crespo-Facorro, Benedicto; Vieta, Eduard; Valencia, Alfonso; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael

2017-04-04

The objective of this study will be to synthesize the epidemiological evidence and evaluate the validity of the associations between central nervous system disorders and the risk of developing or dying from cancer. We will perform an umbrella review of systematic reviews and conduct updated meta-analyses of observational studies (cohort and case-control) investigating the association between central nervous system disorders and the risk of developing or dying from any cancer or specific types of cancer. Searches involving PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS and Web of Science will be used to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies. In addition, online databases will be checked for observational studies published outside the time frames of previous reviews. Eligible central nervous system disorders will be Alzheimer's disease, anorexia nervosa, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, autism spectrum disorders, bipolar disorder, depression, Down's syndrome, epilepsy, Huntington's disease, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. The primary outcomes will be cancer incidence and cancer mortality in association with a central nervous system disorder. Secondary outcome measures will be site-specific cancer incidence and mortality, respectively. Two reviewers will independently screen references identified by the literature search, as well as potentially relevant full-text articles. Data will be abstracted, and study quality/risk of bias will be appraised by two reviewers independently. Conflicts at all levels of screening and abstraction will be resolved through discussion. Random-effects meta-analyses of primary observational studies will be conducted where appropriate. Parameters for exploring statistical heterogeneity are pre-specified. The World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF)/American Institute for Cancer Research (AICR) criteria and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach will be used

Bayesian analyses of genetic parameters for growth traits in Nellore cattle raised on pasture.

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Lopes, F B; Ferreira, J L; Lobo, R B; Rosa, G J M

2017-07-06

This study was carried out to investigate (co)variance components and genetic parameters for growth traits in beef cattle using a multi-trait model by Bayesian methods. Genetic and residual (co)variances and parameters were estimated for weights at standard ages of 120 (W120), 210 (W210), 365 (W365), and 450 days (W450), and for pre- and post-weaning daily weight gain (preWWG and postWWG) in Nellore cattle. Data were collected over 16 years (1993-2009), and all animals were raised on pasture in eight farms in the North of Brazil that participate in the National Association of Breeders and Researchers. Analyses were run by the Bayesian approach using Gibbs sampler. Additive direct heritabilities for W120, W210, W365, and W450 and for preWWG and postWWG were 0.28 ± 0.013, 0.32 ± 0.002, 0.31 ± 0.002, 0.50 ± 0.026, 0.61 ± 0.047, and 0.79 ± 0.055, respectively. The estimates of maternal heritability were 0.32 ± 0.012, 0.29 ± 0.004, 0.30 ± 0.005, 0.25 ± 0.015, 0.23 ± 0.017, and 0.22 ± 0.016, respectively, for W120, W210, W365, and W450 and for preWWG and postWWG. The estimates of genetic direct additive correlation among all traits were positive and ranged from 0.25 ± 0.03 (preWWG and postWWG) to 0.99 ± 0.00 (W210 and preWWG). The moderate to high estimates of heritability and genetic correlation for weights and daily weight gains at different ages is suggestive of genetic improvement in these traits by selection at an appropriate age. Maternal genetic effects seemed to be significant across the traits. When the focus is on direct and maternal effects, W210 seems to be a good criterium for the selection of Nellore cattle considering the importance of this breed as a major breed of beef cattle not only in Northern Brazil but all regions covered by tropical pastures. As in this study the genetic correlations among all traits were high, the selection based on weaning weight might be a good choice because at this age there are two important effects (maternal

Impact of body mass index on mortality and hospitalisation of patients with atrial fibrillation.

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Ball, Jocasta; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Carrington, Melinda J; Wiley, Joshua F; Stewart, Simon

2018-04-01

Atrial fibrillation represents a substantial clinical and public health issue. The definitive impact of body mass index on prognosis of patients with chronic (persistent or permanent) atrial fibrillation remains undetermined. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of body mass index with health outcomes (mortality and re-hospitalisation) of patients with chronic atrial fibrillation. Using data from the Standard versus Atrial Fibrillation spEcific managemenT strategY (SAFETY) trial (a randomised controlled trial of home-based, atrial fibrillation-specific disease management), we performed post-hoc analyses of mortality and re-hospitalisation outcomes during minimum 24-month follow-up according to baseline body mass index profile. Of 297 participants (mean age 71±11 years, 47% female, mean body mass index 29.6±6.7 kg/m 2 ), 35.0% of participants were overweight (body mass index 25.0-29.9 kg/m 2 ) and 43.1% were obese (body mass index≥30 kg/m 2 ). During follow-up, n=42 died including 16/65 (24.6%) classified as normal body mass index, 16/104 (15.4%) classified as overweight and 10/128 (7.8%) classified as obese. Increasing body mass index was not associated with increased mortality but was associated with re-hospitalisation due to cardiovascular disease with greater length-of-stay (odds ratio 1.05; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.09, p=0.032). Obese individuals experienced increased unplanned admissions compared to overweight individuals (incidence rate ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.53-0.96, p=0.028), and increased cardiovascular-related (incidence rate ratio 0.58; 95% confidence interval 0.39-0.86, p=0.007) and all-cause admissions (incidence rate ratio 0.63; 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.89, p=0.008) compared to those classified as normal body mass index. Overweight and obesity were not associated with survival in patients with chronic atrial fibrillation but were associated with more frequent hospital care and prolonged stay.

Extraction of features from sleep EEG for Bayesian assessment of brain development.

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Vitaly Schetinin

Full Text Available Brain development can be evaluated by experts analysing age-related patterns in sleep electroencephalograms (EEG. Natural variations in the patterns, noise, and artefacts affect the evaluation accuracy as well as experts' agreement. The knowledge of predictive posterior distribution allows experts to estimate confidence intervals within which decisions are distributed. Bayesian approach to probabilistic inference has provided accurate estimates of intervals of interest. In this paper we propose a new feature extraction technique for Bayesian assessment and estimation of predictive distribution in a case of newborn brain development assessment. The new EEG features are verified within the Bayesian framework on a large EEG data set including 1,100 recordings made from newborns in 10 age groups. The proposed features are highly correlated with brain maturation and their use increases the assessment accuracy.

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

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Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

2001-01-01

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philippe Lemey

2009-09-01

Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

Meta-analyses of the proportion of Japanese encephalitis virus infection in vectors and vertebrate hosts.

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Oliveira, Ana R S; Cohnstaedt, Lee W; Strathe, Erin; Hernández, Luciana Etcheverry; McVey, D Scott; Piaggio, José; Cernicchiaro, Natalia

2017-09-07

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a zoonosis in Southeast Asia vectored by mosquitoes infected with the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). Japanese encephalitis is considered an emerging exotic infectious disease with potential for introduction in currently JEV-free countries. Pigs and ardeid birds are reservoir hosts and play a major role on the transmission dynamics of the disease. The objective of the study was to quantitatively summarize the proportion of JEV infection in vectors and vertebrate hosts from data pertaining to observational studies obtained in a systematic review of the literature on vector and host competence for JEV, using meta-analyses. Data gathered in this study pertained to three outcomes: proportion of JEV infection in vectors, proportion of JEV infection in vertebrate hosts, and minimum infection rate (MIR) in vectors. Random-effects subgroup meta-analysis models were fitted by species (mosquito or vertebrate host species) to estimate pooled summary measures, as well as to compute the variance between studies. Meta-regression models were fitted to assess the association between different predictors and the outcomes of interest and to identify sources of heterogeneity among studies. Predictors included in all models were mosquito/vertebrate host species, diagnostic methods, mosquito capture methods, season, country/region, age category, and number of mosquitos per pool. Mosquito species, diagnostic method, country, and capture method represented important sources of heterogeneity associated with the proportion of JEV infection; host species and region were considered sources of heterogeneity associated with the proportion of JEV infection in hosts; and diagnostic and mosquito capture methods were deemed important contributors of heterogeneity for the MIR outcome. Our findings provide reference pooled summary estimates of vector competence for JEV for some mosquito species, as well as of sources of variability for these outcomes. Moreover, this

Marital status integration and suicide: A meta-analysis and meta-regression.

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Kyung-Sook, Woo; SangSoo, Shin; Sangjin, Shin; Young-Jeon, Shin

2018-01-01

Marital status is an index of the phenomenon of social integration within social structures and has long been identified as an important predictor suicide. However, previous meta-analyses have focused only on a particular marital status, or not sufficiently explored moderators. A meta-analysis of observational studies was conducted to explore the relationships between marital status and suicide and to understand the important moderating factors in this association. Electronic databases were searched to identify studies conducted between January 1, 2000 and June 30, 2016. We performed a meta-analysis, subgroup analysis, and meta-regression of 170 suicide risk estimates from 36 publications. Using random effects model with adjustment for covariates, the study found that the suicide risk for non-married versus married was OR = 1.92 (95% CI: 1.75-2.12). The suicide risk was higher for non-married individuals aged analysis by gender, non-married men exhibited a greater risk of suicide than their married counterparts in all sub-analyses, but women aged 65 years or older showed no significant association between marital status and suicide. The suicide risk in divorced individuals was higher than for non-married individuals in both men and women. The meta-regression showed that gender, age, and sample size affected between-study variation. The results of the study indicated that non-married individuals have an aggregate higher suicide risk than married ones. In addition, gender and age were confirmed as important moderating factors in the relationship between marital status and suicide. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.